ALBERT

Notes: I investigate how different sources of information influence the diffusion of pharmaceutical innovations. In prescription-drug markets, both advertising and scientific information stemming from clinical trials can affect physicians' prescription choices. Using novel indices of clinical-research output, I find that both marketing and scientific evidence directly influence the diffusion process in the antiulcer-drug market, with marketing having a more pronounced influence. I also find evidence that clinical outputs are important drivers of firms' marketing efforts, affecting sales indirectly. Taken together, the direct and indirect effects of science on demand imply strong private incentives for clinical research. I conclude that product-market competition in the pharmaceutical industry is shaped by both advertising rivalries and scientific rivalries. Moreover, drug advertising may perform an important informative function.

Notes: The paper studies the effects of bundling on the bidding strategies and seller revenues in auctions when the bidders have common values for the objects. Bundling of objects before the auction reduces the problem of the winner's curse, and the bidders bid more aggressively. This does not mean that a bundled auction is always better for the seller's revenue. Indeed, there is another effect that makes the bundled auction preferable (from the seller's standpoint) if and only if the number of bidders is small. While this is the only effect present in an independent-private-values model, it does not vanish when bidders have pure common values for the objects. The paper concludes that a bundled auction is unambiguously better for the seller than separate auctions when the number of bidders is small.

Notes: There are a growing body of theoretical work, wide anecdotal evidence, and a few large-scale empirical studies supporting the view that business firms quite rarely change their organizational structure, a phenomenon usually referred to in the literature as structural inertia. The present paper aims to analyze empirically the determinants of structural inertia and organizational change. As far as we know, this work constitutes the first attempt to directly address such issues through econometric estimates based on a large, longitudinal dataset at plant level. For this purpose, we consider changes of the organizational structure within a sample composed of 438 Italian manufacturing plants observed from 1975 to 1996. More precisely, we specify and test a duration model of the likelihood of an individual plant changing the number of hierarchical tiers after a spell r, provided that no change has occurred up to T. We also analyze the direction of change, distinguishing increases from decreases of the number of managerial layers. We consider a set of plant- and industry-specific explanatory variables that are expected to induce or oppose organizational change. The findings show that the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies and new human-resources management practices favors organizational change. On the contrary, the presence of sunk costs and the extent of influence activities figure prominently in explaining structural inertia of business organizations.

Notes: A simple model of open source software (as typified by the GNU-Linux operating system) is presented. Individual user-programmers decide whether to invest their own effort to develop a software enhancement that will become a public good if so developed. The effect of changing the population size of user-programmers is considered; finite and asymptotic results are given. Welfare results are presented. It is shown that whether development will increase when applications have a modular structure depends on whether the developer base exceeds a critical size. Potential explanations of several stylized facts are given, including why certain useful programs don't get written.

Notes: This paper examines the effect of memory loss on the continuity of behavior. We consider a player (individual or firm) who remembers previous actions but not underlying rationales. In a stable environment, relative to a full-recall scenario, memory loss increases the probability of following old policies (inertia). In a volatile environment, memory loss can decrease this probability (impulsiveness). The model provides a memory-loss explanation for some documented psychological biases, implies that inertia and organizational routines should be more important in stable environments than in volatile ones, and provides empirical implications relating memory and environmental variables to economic decisions.

Notes: Syndication arises when venture capitalists jointly invest in projects. We model and test two possible reasons for syndication: project selection, as an additional venture capitalist provides an informative second opinion; and complementary management skills of additional venture capitalists. The central question is whether venture capitalists are engaged primarily in selection or in managerial value added. These alternatives imply contrasting predictions about comparative returns to syndicated and standalone investments. Our empirical analysis, using Canadian data, finds that syndicated investments have higher returns, favoring the value-added interpretation. We also discuss risk sharing and project scale as possible reasons for syndication.

Notes: In the context of an employment relationship, I present an argument suggesting that it is more efficient for the boss to own the productive assets. The idea is that a conflict between productivity and depreciation is internalized if the player deciding what an asset is used for also has residual claims. An empirical test finds evidence consistent with this. By asking whether the boss should own the assets, the paper reverses the reasoning from the literature in which it is argued that the owner has power and thus is the boss.

Notes: Cooperative equilibria can be supported in a repeated game when players use trigger strategies. This paper tests how well trigger strategies explain behavior in two-person experimental games. Reducing payoffs for choices larger than the Cournot level induces smaller average outputs, behavior generally consistent with trigger strategy models. Reducing payoffs for choices well above the Cournot level will not affect behavior if actions are consistent with a trigger strategy involving longer-lived, less intense punishment phases (the grim-reaper strategy), but would matter for trigger strategies with short-lived but intense punishment phases. Results show that behavior is most consistent with the former.

Notes: Knickerbocker (1973) introduced the notion of oligopolistic reaction to explain why firms follow rivals into foreign markets. We develop a model that incorporates central features of Knickerbocker's story—oligopoly, uncertainty, and risk aversion—to establish the conditions required to generate follow-the-leader behavior. We find that rival foreign investment will make risk-neutral firms less inclined to move abroad once its rivals have done so. We show that Knickerbocker's prediction relies on risk aversion and derive an expression for the minimum amount of risk aversion needed to generate oligopolistic reaction.

Notes: Horizontal mergers between firms that have different costs are examined. Owners can transfer technology to an acquired firm and decide whether to consolidate or operate their firms as separate entities in the product market. Thus mergers can exhibit both efficiencies and a market-power effect. The prices of target firms are determined via a bargaining game. An equilibrium sequence of mergers entails the largest firm targeting the next largest rival firm. Initially, this sequence of mergers with technology transfers involves no consolidations and improves welfare. Ultimately, the acquisitions lead to consolidation and may decrease total welfare.

Notes: This note corrects Proposition 3 of Chang (1998).

Notes: It is often claimed that (i) managers work too hard on operational issues and do not spend enough effort on strategic activities, and (ii) something can be done about this by introducing nonfinancial performance measures, as for instance with a balanced scorecard. We give an explanation for both claims in a formal model. The distortion toward operational effort arises because with financial performance measures strategic effort can only be rewarded in the future. But renegotiation-proof long-term compensation plans entail too weak variable components in the future. This problem can be reduced by introducing performance measures that help to disentangle strategic and operational effects.

Notes: Central to so many accounts of post-war Japan, the keiretsu corporate groups lacked economic substance from the start. Conceived by Marxists committed to locating “domination” by “monopoly capital,” they found an early audience among western scholars searching for evidence of culture-specific group behavior in Japan. By the 1990s, they had moved into mainstream economic studies, and keiretsu dummies appeared in virtually all econometric regressions of Japanese industrial or financial structure. Yet the keiretsu began as a figment of the academic imagination, and they remain that today. Regardless of the keiretsu definition used, cross-shareholdings within the “groups” were trivial, even during the years when keiretsu ties were supposedly strongest. Neither does membership proxy for “main bank” ties. Econometric studies basing “keiretsu dummies” on the available rosters produce predictably haphazard and unstable results. In the end, the only reliably robust results are the artifacts of the sample biases created by the definitions themselves.

Notes: We use survey data and field research to investigate the effects of employee involvement practices on outcomes for blue-collar workers in the auto-supply industry. We find these practices raise wages by 3–5%. The causal mechanism linking involvement and wages appears to be most consistent with efficiency-wage theories, and least consistent with compensating differences. We find no evidence that employee involvement affects plants' survival or employment growth.

Notes: The modern corporation is characterized both by a separation of ownership from management and by managerial incentives that often include strategic elements in addition to the standard incentive elements. Despite the importance of these two features in the agency and corporate-governance literatures, they are absent in the treatment of the firm in the patent-licensing literature. The analysis in this paper shows how, by simply taking into account these two features of the modern corporation, it is possible to offer a new explanation for the use of royalties in licensing agreements.

Notes: This paper introduces a theory of network incentives in managed health care. Participation in the plan's network confers an economic benefit on providers; in exchange, the plan expects compliance with its protocols. The network sets a target for the number of outpatient visits in an episode of care. A provider failing to satisfy the target may be penalized by the plan's attempt to direct patients to other providers within its network. There is an equilibrium in which every provider in the network uses the target. We test the theory by observing behavior of providers before and after the introduction of managed mental health care in a large, employed population. Managed care consisted of price reductions, utilization review, and creation of a network. Quantity per episode of care fell sharply after initiation of managed care. We identify a network effect in our empirical work. The results indicate that in this case, network incentives account for most of the quantity reduction due to managed care.

Notes: In this field-based study, we interview top- and middle-level managers at Insteel Industries and conduct statistical analysis of firm-level data in order to shed light on whether activity-based costing (ABC) provides new information to managers and whether activity-based management (ABM) significantly influences product and customer-related decisions. We find that after the ABC analysis, Insteel undertook a number of process improvements that resulted in significant cost savings. Additionally, Insteel displayed a higher propensity to discontinue or increase prices of products and discontinue customers that were found comparatively unprofitable in the ABC study. Thus we provide empirical evidence that ABC influences both strategic and operational managerial decisions.

Notes: Managed care organizations control costs through restrictions on patient access to specialized services, oversight of treatment protocols, and financial incentives for providers. We investigate possible effects of such practices on the care patients receive by studying frequencies of in-hospital complications. We find significant differences in complication rates between managed care and fee-for-service patients. We investigate the sources of this variation by comparing probabilities of complications among patients with different types of managed care coverage and patients treated in different hospitals. For several patient categories, the differences in outcomes we find appear to arise not from differential treatment of patients within hospitals or from heterogeneity in patients, but from variations in care across hospitals that tend to treat patients with different insurance types.

Notes: One of the mechanisms that are implemented in the cost containment movement in the health care sectors in western countries is the definition, by the third-party payer, of a set of preferred providers. The insured patients have different access rules to such providers when ill. The rules specify the copayments patients must pay when using an out-of-plan care provider. This paper studies the competitive process among providers in terms of both prices and qualities. Competition is influenced by the status of providers as in-plan or out-of-plan care providers. Also, there is a moral hazard of provider choice related to the trade-off between freedom to choose and the need to hold down costs. It is possible to achieve the first-best allocation by an appropriate definition of the reimbursement scheme when decisions on prices and qualities are taken simultaneously (as in primary health care sectors). In contrast, some type of regulation is needed to achieve the optimal solution when decisions are sequential (as in specialized health care sectors). We also derive normative conclusions on how price controls should be implemented in some European Union member states.

Notes: If an illness is not contractible, then even partially insured consumers demand treatment for it when the benefit is less than the cost, a condition known as moral hazard. Traditional health insurance, which controls moral hazard with copayments (demand management), can result in either a deficient or an excessive provision of treatment relative to ideal insurance. In particular, treatment for a low-probability illness is deficient if illness per se has little effect on the consumer's marginal utility of income and if the consumer's price elasticity of expected demand for treatment is large relative to the risk-spreading distortion when these are evaluated at a copayment that brings forth the ideal provision of treatment. Managed care, which controls moral hazard with physician incentives, can either increase or decrease treatment delivery relative to traditional insurance, depending on whether demand management results in deficient or excessive treatment.

Notes: This paper asserts that brand pharmaceutical firms (those mostly involved in the invention and production of new drugs) engage in a set of complementary activities that are different from those of generic pharmaceutical firms (those that primarily make off-patent medicines). Complementarities of the Milgrom-Roberts variety within, but not across, these two kinds of firms make it more efficient for pharmaceutical firms to specialize in either brand or generic production. Using FDA data, I show that this is indeed the case. I then examine the firms that produce both types of drugs to see if there are market-level strategic synergies between brand and generic products. I find generic entrants that belong to a corporation that owns the brand in the market are (1) not more likely to enter, (2) not more likely to be approved faster, and (3) not more likely to deter other generics from entering. Thus the advantage, or synergy, from mixing brand and generic activities in one corporation must arise elsewhere in the operations of the firm. If not, the integrated pharmaceutical firm is not the most efficient organizational form for the production of ethical drugs.

Notes: This paper addresses the following subjects: biotechnology and consumers, concern about risks, consumer acceptance, labelling of foods produced using biotechnology, the legal approach to consumer protection, and consumer protection policies relating to biotechnology products in the European Union, the United States, Turkey and global institutions such as the Convention for Biological Diversity (CBD) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It is likely that biotechnology will gain ground much more rapidly in the twenty-first century than in the past. Despite rapid, detailed and precise advances in gene technology, its applications have not been the received with a great deal of consumer enthusiasm. Consumers have approached genetically modified foods with considerable apprehension and opposition. Consumer concerns about bioengineered food products focus on the questions of human health, environmental and social risks and benefits. The most important stages in the process of marketing new foods produced using biotechnology are to demonstrate user need and consumer acceptance. Generally, the technical complexity of biotechnology makes it difficult for consumers to understand details of the product and the specific attributes of biotechnology applications. Scientific uncertainty, the nature of consumer concerns and general reluctance to accept biotechnology products, increase the importance of consumer protection. Legal protection is a very important factor in the solution of new social problems related to technological advances. More specifically, consumer and environmental law support consumer protection related to foods produced with biotechnology. The basic principles of consumer law can be re-formulated as consumer rights. Environmental law is a new phenomenon, but precautionary principles and public participation in decision-making for environmental law are relevant to consumer protection relating to bioengineered food products.

Notes: Many variables have been proposed as additions to the theory of planned behaviour structure, and evidence exists to support the value of a measure of ethical obligation and self-identity. Furthermore, some research has suggested that ethical obligation may serve as an antecedent to attitude as well as intention. This paper presents findings from a large scale survey that highlights the usefulness of ethical obligation and self-identity in the prediction of intention. Additionally, the role of both these variables in the prediction of attitude is also suggested. This is examined within the ‘ethical’ context of fair trade grocery purchases. Methodological implications for further research are discussed.

Notes: This paper first presents evidence from Spain on the relationship between the labour situation of both spouses within the family and the time dedicated to the care of the children, the elderly and the infirm. Second, it analyses the effect that government benefits for such care would have on the labour market and on household poverty. The results show that while Spanish society has advanced in the incorporation of women into the labour market, most of them still have to assume total responsibility for housework and the care of the children, the elderly and the infirm. Against this background, we find that benefits would decrease female participation in the labour market and the number of hours worked, while they would also contribute towards reducing poverty.

Notes: The curriculum that pupils are taught within the classroom environment can either be reinforced or weakened by what goes on in the rest of the school environment. The study focused on pupils aged 11–12 years, to establish if healthy eating theory was put into practice in the school environment. The research encompassed three areas within the school: the pupils who are the recipients of the theory; the teacher who teaches them the importance of food and cooking skills; and the providers of food within the school environment. Three different post-primary schools located within the Coleraine area of Northern Ireland were used.

Notes: Focus group interviews were carried out at 12 preschools. The aim was to investigate children's perceptions and experiences of food, and the possibility of using focus group techniques with children aged 3–5 years. A total of 103 children participated. The children associated food and eating with rules and norms. Most children described these rules and norms as well as what they were and were not allowed to do. They knew very well the difference between acceptable and non-acceptable mealtime behaviour, and were especially aware of what they were not allowed to do. When children were asked to rate foods they ‘disliked’, they spoke instead about their favourite foods. They did not categorize food as good or bad, as adults often do, but as ‘food’ and ‘non-food’, for example, sweets were not food. The method used in this study, the focus group interview, was judged to be a useful tool for exploring how children think about and jointly reflect upon food.

Notes: The Food Standards Agency was set up in April 2000 to protect the health of the public and the interests of consumers in relation to food. Its principal purpose is to put the consumer first. But what does this mean in practice? The Agency is finding ways to help consumer organizations and consumer representatives contribute more effectively to its work. However, consumer organizations cannot hope to represent the full range of consumer perspectives, and so the Agency is keen to reach out to individual consumers using a variety of innovative mechanisms. This article will describe why the Agency was established and how it achieves its main objective of putting the consumer first. It will discuss how the Agency is developing and testing new ways of working to ensure that the consumer perspective is fully accounted for when developing and evaluating policies, including setting up an influential new Consumer Committee. It will go on to highlight a number of recent innovative consumer consultations and structures that have been established to involve consumers in Agency policy making. It will discuss these processes and how the lessons that have been learnt are informing future Agency strategies. The article will then describe how the Agency protects consumers through effective risk communication strategies and how its Annual Consumer Attitudes Survey will help it measure success so that it can continue to set new stand-ards in putting consumers first in relation to food.

Notes: Despite the increased documentation of consumers’ purchases of organic food products, the motivations for such purchases are relatively under-researched. An individual’s choice of food products can be linked clearly to ethical stances, but ethical choices can also vary from individual to individual, from industry to industry and among countries. Consequently, this paper investigates the degree to which ethical beliefs influence Scottish consumer perceptions, beliefs, attitudes and purchasing decisions, with regard to organic dairy products. Consumer purchasing motivations are revealed as being self-interest-centred (i.e. better tasting, safer), rather than altruistic. Therefore, to achieve future market development, organic dairy producers cannot rely upon the minority of hardcore green consumers to sustain growth, but must aim to modify perceptions and attitudes of larger consumer segments by implementing educational marketing campaigns that reinforce the ethical, environmental and societal benefits of organic production.

Notes: Physically disabled women today have to face the inconvenience of shopping for their own as well as their families’ clothes and the inability of finding fashionable clothes that fit any disability. A total of 40 physically disabled women between the ages of 21 years and 60 years were interviewed on the problems they experienced when shopping for fashionable clothes that fit their disabilities. A total of 40 clothing shops were observed to get information on the extent to which the shops cater for the needs of the physically disabled consumer. Results from the interviews showed that the majority of physically disabled female clothing consumers experienced major problems in finding fashionable clothes that fit their disabilities. It was also clear that these women experienced problems with unusable access routes, unsuitable parking lots, display racks that are too high, spaces between racks that are too narrow, inadequate space in fitting rooms and a lack of assistance in shops. The observations were compared with the complaints the women had and it was found that these women had not overestimated their problems.

Notes: Three denim jeans products from the same manufacturer with differentiated pricing and labels (antiqued, sandblasted, and stonewashed) were used to determine the relationship between price and quality. Both qualitative and quantitative procedures were used to analyse the garments. All three jeans were made of twill weave with 3 × 1 repeat. Both structural and performance characteristics were compared using standardized tests. Analysis of variance was used to compare the selected structural and performance characteristics among the three jeans products. Tukey’s HSD tests were used for post hoc multiple comparisons for three jeans. The findings revealed that despite the fact that all three jeans products were from the same store, and that the fabrics used the same weave, degree and direction of twist, the jeans differed significantly for several structural and performance characteristics. Several possibilities for future research were explored.

Notes: This paper investigates the magnitude of the mismeasurement that occurs when only a few education categories are used in the construction of a constant quality index for labor input. By employing a very comprehensive data set it is found that the error resulting from the omission of information on education is relatively small. The empirical results are thus supportive of the current state of practice of constructing indices of constant quality labor input.

Notes: This paper demonstrates a methodology for constructing asset accounts for a commercial fishery in which the stock, harvest, and effort level are out of sustainable equilibrium. The paper adopts the framework used by the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis in its preliminary 1993 Integrated Economic and Environmental Accounts and follows methodologies recommended by the National Research Council committee constituted to review those efforts. The accounts were constructed for the period 1985 to 1995 for the Atlantic sea scallop fishery, a significant commercial fishery, using information obtained with the cooperation of the National Marine Fisheries Service from existing databases constructed for management purposes. No significant additional data collection was required for the purpose of this study. Differences between the net rent and user cost values of the stocks over this period indicate the inefficient exploitation of immature scallop populations.

Notes: Ann Chadeau died in April this year after a long illness. She was 58. Ann was an active member of our Association for many years, serving on the Editorial Board from 1985 to 1990 and on the Council from 1995 to 2000. All those who knew her will be saddened at the loss both for her warm and outgoing personality as well as for her professional abilities.

Notes: This paper investigates the effect of finding work by one of the household members on the probability of escaping from poverty in the Netherlands. For households with non-active heads, finding work by the head of the household is the most important (investigated) event connected with exiting poverty, nearly a third of all poverty endings. However, finding a job by the head of the household does not guarantee one leaving poverty. In practice, the success rate yields 25 percent. A multivariate analysis shows that finding a job by the head of the household increases the chance of leaving poverty with 22 percent points. So, some exits from poverty are a result of other factors or are due to selectivity of the job-finders. This difference is much larger when partners or (adult) children find jobs.

Notes: The formidable expansion in the scope of the United Nations International Comparison Project has brought into evidence limitations of the methodology used in the first three phases. The author considers that there are two indispensable conditions needed to give renewed impetus to the ICP: (a) the objectives must be redefined, and (b) the methodology must be built on an entirely new basis. He considers the broad lines of such an evolution to be the following.(a) The objective of volume comparison must be kept distinct from that of purchasing power comparison, given that both the basic material and the formulae to be used at the aggregate level differ in the two cases.(b) At the basic heading level, it is proposed, for both volume and purchasing power comparisons, to replace the multilateral approach by a “minimum scale” binary and unilateral approach, and to use the EKS method. This will make possible an improvement in the accuracy of the estimates, a reduction in the overall costs, and a drastic reduction in execution time. What is more, it would be possible to regionalize the worldwide comparison, in the sense that the results of the basic heading comparisons already obtained at the regional level for regional purposes can be used as an input in the framework of the worldwide comparison. At the aggregate level, in the framework of volume comparison, it is proposed that a constant price procedure in the spatial sense should continue to be used. It is, however, proposed that the prices of the set of countries (GK) be replaced by a structure of common “equi-distant” prices (G). This would permit the elimination of the significant systematic distortions observed in the comparison between rich and poor countries in the first three phases of ICP. What is more, this gives maximum stability to results obtained for the same countries at different geographical levels. By using a set of common “equi-distant” quantities, the same advantage can be obtained in the purchasing power comparison.

Notes: A number of rather traditional problems relating to the estimation of the national accounts have been raised in the recent literature. This paper examines five of these problems from the point of view of a government statistician working within certain time and resource constraints. Credibility, comprehensibility, theoretical validity, cost and analytical usefulness are the criteria which should aid in deciding how to treat such matters as the extension of the boundaries of economic production, proposed changes in the categorization of both final and intermediate expenses, the treatment of “total” welfare and estimation relating to the so-called underground economy.

Notes: Book review in this article:JAMES MEADE: Stagflation Vol 1: Wage Fixing. George Allen & Unwin LA.

Notes: In 1997, the Labour Party was elected in the UK with few explicitly articulated ideas about social security reforms. This paper reviews the large number of subsequent reforms to social security, and argues that some consistent themes have emerged. A commitment to keep to the tight spending plans of the previous, Conservative, administration left little scope for increases in benefit spending during the first two years in office. Since that time, increases in the generosity of some social security programmes have been directed towards achieving certain goals. An emphasis on encouraging paid work has been a consistent theme, whilst aims of reducing poverty rates for children and pensioners have been emphasised since 1999. Spending to achieve these goals has often been directed through means-tested programmes, and there has been a related weakening of the link between paid National Insurance contributions and benefit entitlements. It remains to be seen whether reforms to the process of income assessment will increase take-up.

Notes: Australian governments have recently moved from cash accounting to accrual accounting. Accrual accounting has been accompanied at the national government level by the introduction of a new key fiscal policy measure: the ‘fiscal balance’. This paper explains and evaluates this new fiscal measure. It concludes that, given the present fiscal policy of the Australian government, fiscal balance is a superior fiscal policy measure to the ‘cash’ budget balance measure which it replaced. However, from the alternative ‘golden rule’ policy standpoint, fiscal balance is not a meaningful fiscal policy measure — although its stock counterpart, net financial liabilities, certainly is.

Notes: This paper deals with local fiscal equalisation in Austria. The system of intergovernmental relations in Austria includes different regulations in order to equalise differences in the fiscal capacity of the municipalities. This leads to so-called ‘compensation effects’, because additional revenues from a local government's own tax are (at least partly) compensated by losses from equalisation grants. This paper carries out a detailed analysis of these compensation effects. It is shown that they create strong fiscal disincentives for the local governments: on average, 55 per cent of additional revenues from the communal tax (which is the most important of a local government's own taxes) are compensated by losses of equalisation grants. In extreme cases, local governments can lose up to 144 per cent of the additional tax yields collected. These local governments would be better off if they made no effort to increase their tax base.

Notes: This symposium arises from a one-day conference held at the Institute for Fiscal Studies on 22 May 2002. The papers presented on that day considered the social security reforms during the first term of the Labour government from a number of perspectives. The three articles published here — and the further three that will follow in Part II of the symposium — are drawn from a broader range of disciplines than is usual for Fiscal Studies papers.

Notes: British public investment has declined sharply both as a share of GDP and as a share of government spending since the 1970s. Only part of this decline is explained by privatisation, which transferred some public investment to the private sector. More important was the very large and permanent reduction in public house-building between the mid-1970s and the early 1980s. Between the late 1980s and the early 1990s, the rate of public investment recovered somewhat, but after that time it declined again, reaching a record low in 1999. The most recent decline in public investment has affected a range of central government programmes, and it has not been significantly offset by investment under the Private Finance Initiative. The government now plans to increase investment spending, although levels look set to remain low by historical standards for some time to come.

Notes: The analysis of the distributional impact of fiscal policy proposals often requires information on household expenditures and incomes. It is unusual to have one data source with information on both and this problem is generally overcome with statistical matching of independent data sources. In this paper Grade Correspondence Analysis (GCA) is investigated as a tool to improve the matching process. GCA draws out the relationships between the common variables to enable the sample to be partitioned into more homogeneous groups, prior to matching. An evaluation is conducted using the UK Family Expenditure Survey, which is unusual in containing both income and expenditure at a detailed level of disaggregation. Imputed expenditures are compared with actual expenditures through the use of indirect tax simulations. The most successful methods are then employed to enhance data from the Family Resources Survey and the synthetic dataset is used as a microsimulation model database.

Notes: Book reviewed in this article:Angus Maddison, The World Economy, A Millennial Perspective

Notes: The development of income inequality in Sweden up to 1998 is described and analyzed using yearly data focusing on the 1990s when average income fell rapidly and unemployment sky rocketed. Inequality in equivalent disposable income increased during the 1990s as during most of the 1980s. Decomposing total inequality by population groups and studying the earnings of full–time workers shows that while many groups experienced drops in income during the 1990s, some large groups did not. Examples of the latter are pensioners and full–time workers. Young adults and recent immigrants are examples of the former. Decomposing the Gini–coefficient by income source indicates that forces leading to increased inequality during the 1990s differed from those at play during the 1980s.

Notes: The stagnation of Egyptian living standards in the first half of the 20th century has been widely presumed in economic history. However, this conventional wisdom is partially based on a fragmented body of evidence on aggregate output. In particular, no estimates of national income exist for any extended period prior to World War II. Using a money–based cointegration approach and a new measure of broad money, we exploit Egypt’s intimate economic links with the U.K. to provide the first continuous estimates of GDP for the period 1886–1945. Our estimates are consistent with trends in agriculture and other stylized facts about the Egyptian economy in the late 19th and early 20th century. The empirical results provide qualified support to the conventional wisdom about Egypt’s growth performance in addition to offering a detailed characterization of output cycles.

Notes: Individual well–being has its resources by income and time. Though income traditionally is on the focuses of well–being analyses, the connected time dimension is often neglected. One important dimension of individual welfare regarding time and income is the possibility to harmonize desired with actual working hours connected with the income dimension. This paper will analyze this working hour tension by a ten year panel analysis for Germany. Besides descriptive measures of the subjective tension over a decade from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s, the panel econometric analyses will quantify personal and household influences in explaining the working hour tension as one further important economic well–being measure.

Notes: Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is a poor indicator of economic well–being. It measures effective consumption poorly (ignoring the value of leisure and of longer life spans) and it also ignores the value of accumulation for the benefit of future generations. Since incomes are uncertain and unequally distributed, the average also does not indicate the likelihood that any particular individual will share in prosperity or the degree of anxiety and insecurity with which individuals contemplate their futures. We argue that a better index of economic well–being should consider: current effective per capita consumption flows; net societal accumulation of stocks of productive resources; income distribution; and economic security. The paper develops such an index of economic well–being for the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, Norway and Sweden for the period 1980 to 1999. It compares trends in economic well–being to trends in GDP per person. In every case, growth in economic well–being was less than growth in GDP per capita, although to different degrees in different countries.

Notes: This paper explores how annual earnings mobility offsets annual earnings inequality, using matched CPS data. Mobility in the economy is estimated using nonparametric quantile regression, for which we adapt state–of–the–art smoothing techniques. Mobility is measured through the churning process (changes in earnings given initial earnings) in order to identify different mobility patterns for different earnings groups. For instance, upward mobility in high earners is far weaker than its converse, downward mobility for low earners. We assess the (positive or negative) contribution to offsetting of each pattern in mobility. Innovations in our approach also allow us to identify trends and minute changes in mobility, and to pinpoint which changes in mobility have offset the increases in inequality observed over the decades.

Notes: The effects of the German unemployment compensation system on aggregate savings and the distribution of wealth are studied in a general equilibrium 60–period OLG model. The distribution of wealth is derived as an endogenous function of the parameters characterizing the unemployment compensation system, which comprises unemployment insurance (Arbeitslosengeld), unemployment assistance (Arbeitslosenhilfe), and welfare payments (Sozialhilfe), the latter two being subject to a means test. As our main results: (i) both aggregate savings and wealth equality are a monotone decreasing function of unemployment benefits; (ii) optimal unemployment compensation declines over the spell of unemployment; (iii) asset–based means tests are shown to reduce welfare if the allowable wealth level is below the average wealth in the economy.

Notes: This paper presents empirical evidence on how education is related to income distribution in a panel data set covering a broad range of countries for the period between 1960 and 1990. The findings indicate that educational factors—higher educational attainment and more equal distribution of education —play a significant role in making income distribution more equal. The results also confirm the Kuznets inverted–U curve for the relationship between income level and income inequality. We also find that government social expenditure contributes to more equal distribution of income. However, a significant proportion of cross–country variation in income inequality remains unexplained.

Notes: Book reviewed in this article:Joachim Merz and Manfred Ehling (eds.), Time Use –Research, Data and Policy

Notes: Geographic targeting is perhaps the most popular mechanism used to direct social programs to the poor in Latin America. This paper empirically compares geographic targeting indicators available in Peru. To this effect, I combine household–level information from the 1997 Peru Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) and district–level information from the 1993 Peru Population and Housing Census. I then conduct a series of simulations which estimate leakage rates, concentration curves, the impact of transfers on poverty as measured by the headcount index, poverty gap and P2 measures of the FGT family, and non–parametric (kernel) densities when transfers are based on alternative indicators. I conclude that there is substantial potential for geographic targeting in Peru. However, the differences in outcomes across geographic targeting indicators are small, and are not statistically significant. These results are in keeping with earlier work which suggests that (among reasonable alternatives) the choice of geographic targeting indicator does not have an important bearing on poverty outcomes, and are at odds with more recent research which stresses the advantage of poverty maps which “impute” consumption or income.

Notes: Using the national income/expenditure distribution data from 111 countries, we decompose total inequality between the individuals in the world, by continents and regions. We use Yitzhaki’s Gini decomposition which allows for an exact breakdown of the Gini. We find that Asia is the most heterogeneous continent; between-country inequality is much more important than inequality in incomes within countries. At the other extreme is Latin America where differences between the countries are small, but inequalities within the countries are large. Western Europe/North America is fairly homogeneous both in terms of countries’ mean incomes and income differences between individuals. If we divide the world population into three groups: the rich (those with incomes greater than Italy's mean income), the poor (those with incomes less than Western countries’ poverty line), and the middle class, we find that there are only 11 percent of people who are “world middle class”; 78 percent are poor, and 11 percent are rich.

Notes: The motivation of this study is to test the widely accepted but never tested hypothesis that Chinese official statistics on growth rates may contain serious upward biases. By adopting a Laspeyres quantity index approach to the recently available official physical output data at commodity level, we have constructed an independent output index for Chinese industry, and produced a unique data set for the value added of 17 major industrial branches at 1987 prices for the period 1949–97. This study has, for the first time, systematically tested this hypothesis with supportive results. It implies that any growth accounting study using the official growth rates may have exaggerated the productivity performance of Chinese industry.

Notes: The growth of the public sector in the post-war period and the consequences of this development for economic growth is a strongly disputed subject of economic theory and policy. In this paper the development trends of state activities in the case of the Federal Republic of Germany are presented. The structure of public expenditures as well as the tax structure are taken into consideration and possible impacts on real economic growth are analysed. The negative correlations between some kinds of public expenditures (or taxes) and the growth rate of real GNP should not be taken in proof of the growth-retarding effects which might ensue from increasing state activities. It seems to be more likely that state activities have induced shifts of resources from the formal into the informal economy. Politicians should be aware that some measures of economic policy conventionally proposed will strengthen the movement into the informal economy, thus intensifying the current problems within the public budgets as well as in the social security system.

Notes: This paper uses five valuation methods to derive aggregate and per person estimates of the value of household work in the United States. Two general questions are posed: (1) what is the relationship between the aggregate estimates and the valuation method used, and (2) how do per person estimates vary by sex and earnings?The main observations of the paper are as follows: First, the aggregate value of household work is sizable regardless of the valuation method used. Second, aggregate estimates are extremely sensitive to the method of valuation. For example, the highest estimate is $475 billion greater than the lowest estimate. Third, contrary to earlier findings, opportunity cost valuation methods generally produce significantly higher estimates than market cost valuation methods. Fourth, per person estimates vary significantly by sex and level of earnings across valuation methods. Generally, market cost estimates.

Notes: Income generating functions are statistical tools used to explain income inequality and other economic outcomes and behavior. These functions are often associated with a strict human capital framework, but they need not be. Instead, they may be viewed as a reduced form equation summarizing the relationship between income and various personal and locational characteristics. Following this latter interpretation, we develop the regression and analysis of variance approaches to income generating functions and estimate them empirically using micro-economic data from one low income country, Colombia. Proceeding to increasingly parsimonious specifications of income generating functions, insights are gained into the structure of incomes in Colombia.

Notes: In this paper a definition of poverty in terms of welfare is given. A method is developed to derive poverty lines from an individual welfare function of income. The model is extended to analyse the effect of several socio-economic characteristics on the level of the poverty line. An empirical application of the method is given based on data from a survey in eight European countries in 1979. Differences in the poverty lines both between countries and between socio-economic groups within each country are considered. Finally the number of people below these poverty lines is estimated for all countries in the group.

Notes: The Kingdom of Nepal is one of the least developed and least known countries. In order to understand the sometimes non-conventional estimating procedure used, a background section is included, describing the physical, socio-economic and institutional framework. In the second part of the paper some illustrative examples of the approaches used are given, the full description being published in four volumes, National Accounts of Nepal, National Planning Commission, Kathmandu. The last part of the paper considers the usefulness of national accounts based upon the market economy, and in general, the problem of applicability of international concepts to a developing country. What is the significance of international concepts to a developing country? What is the significance of national value aggregates in a country in which the unit of national currency does not serve as a nation-wide standard of value? Can a common denominator be found if the scale of values and the whole outlook of different groups are so different? What do people value, and does the rural population in localized economies put a monetary price on the value? Has the concept of labour force or employment, as used in industrial societies, any meaning in a society where all those capable, including small children, of contributing to daily survival do so? The conceptual problems have not yet been solved. National accounts are a useful first step in providing planners with symbols for telling a complex story in simple terms and as a kind of statistical reconnaissance, but as development planning is moving more and more in the direction of planning from below and into regional and rural development projects, household surveys are becoming essential planning and evaluation tools. Based upon twenty-five years of field experience, the author reflects upon problems and possible solutions, discussing managerial, training, substantive and statistical aspects.

Notes: This paper describes the composition of the public sector in the United Kingdom and traces the development and contribution to the economy of the three main sub-sectors-central government, local government and public corporations—over the past thirty years. Relevant data for output, employment, fixed capital formation and national wealth set the public sector into perspective with the economy as a whole and illustrate how its share of human and other resources has changed over the years. While all four measures show the public sector share of the total to have been around 30 percent in 1980, historically the changes have moved very differently. The slow, but fairly steady, increase in the share of employment and output contrasts with very marked changes in the other two measures. Although public sector fixed investment nearly doubled in real terms between 1950 and 1980 its share of total investment declined from 48 to 31 percent, a much smaller share being taken by dwellings, electricity supply and the railways. In terms of the share of national wealth the public sector moved from a state of indebtedness to the rest of the economy in the fifties and sixties to a position of holding nearly one third of the value of tangible and financial assets in the late seventies.A small part of the paper considers the international dimension, but because few other countries use the concept of a public sector, this section examines only the relationship between total tax revenue and GDP in a number of countries and employment in general government.The problems of determining the boundary of the public and private sectors occurs most frequently at the interface between public corporations and private enterprises; the rules for deciding classification are set out in so far as they can be specified.The last sections of the paper put the statistics into their policy context and consider the value of public sector aggregates. The conclusion is that a general case cannot be made to justify assembling public sector aggregates for all countries; the need will be determined by the economic policies being pursued in a particular country. Although the United Kingdom gives considerable prominence to a public sector financial aggregate, the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, the functions of the public corporations and the rest of the public sector are so disparate that consolidated accounts for the public sector are no longer prepared.

Notes: Has the underground economy caused the increase in United States GNP in recent years to be understated relative to earlier periods? The ratio of employment to population provides powerful evidence that it has not. This ratio’ was as high in the middle 1970s as in previous periods and in 1978–80 rose to its highest level of the postwar era, suggesting that employment growth has not been understated. Employment series based on both establishment reports and household surveys yield exceptionally high ratios in recent years. This article provides a step-by-step explanation of why employment data are pertinent to the question raised about GNP.This explanation may be summarized as follows. GNP measured as the sum of final products is not understated unless GNP measured as the sum of national income and other charges against GNP is also understated. Appreciable understatement of the growth of charges against GNP as a result of growth of the underground economy is highly unlikely in the absence of understatement of the growth of wages and salaries, because of the way the estimates are made. Understatement of the growth of wages and salaries without understatement of the growth of employment based on establishment reports is highly unlikely because of the way data are collected.The article explains briefly the relationship between income tax evasion and errors in measuring the various components of charges against GNP. It also explains how illegal activities are meant to be handled in GNP measurement.

Notes: In this paper we deal with the question of which measures of economic well-being are adequate to identify those groups of households in the U.S. whose economic conditions justify public concern and assistance. We derive a utility based measure of economic well-being from the estimation of a complete set of consumer demand equations. The demand system is Lluch's Extended Linear Expenditure System (Lluch, 1973). Household characteristics are incorporated using the scaling method proposed by Barten (1966). Using the welfare indicator derived, we study the composition of the poorest part of the population, using data from the 1972–73 Consumer Expenditure Survey. We compare our results with those obtained using various other welfare indicators, including the official U.S. poverty line. We show that using different family composition adjustments significantly and systematically affects just who are considered to be at the bottom of the welfare distribution. We finally suggest that program designers therefore can improve their target efficiency by carefully selecting from among the acceptable indices of welfare when defining program eligibility.

Notes: This paper uses a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) framework to assess whether rail privatisation in Britain has produced savings in operating costs. The paper shows that major efficiencies have been achieved and consumers have benefited through lower prices, whilst the increased government subsidy has been largely recouped through privatisation proceeds. We also find that output quality is no lower (and is probably better) than under the counterfactual scenario of public ownership (pre-Hatfield). The achievement of further savings is key to delivering improved rail services in the future. This paper finds that a privatised structure, where shareholders demand a return on their investment, has led to significant improvements in operating efficiency. It remains to be seen whether the new regime, with a not-for-profit infrastructure owner, will deliver the same efficiency improvements.

Notes: This paper develops the link between poverty and inequality by focussing on a class of poverty indices (some of them well–known) which aggregate normative concerns for absolute and relative deprivation. The indices are distinguished by a parameter value that captures the ethical sensitivity of poverty measurement to “exclusion” or “relative–deprivation” aversion. The indices can be readily used to predict the impact of growth on poverty. An illustration using LIS data finds that the United States show more relative deprivation than Denmark and Belgium whatever the percentiles considered, but that overall deprivation comparisons of the four countries considered will generally depend on the intensity of the ethical concern for relative deprivation. The impact of growth on poverty also depends on the presence of and on the attention granted to concerns over relative deprivation.

Notes: This paper compares income inequality and income mobility in the Scandinavian countries and the United States during 1980–90. The results suggest that inequality is greater in the United States than in the Scandinavian countries and that this inequality ranking of countries remains unchanged when the accounting period of income is extended from one to eleven years. The pattern of mobility turns out to be remarkably similar, in the sense that the proportionate reduction in inequality from extending the accounting period of income is much the same. But we do find evidence of greater dispersion of first differences of relative earnings and income in the United States. Relative income changes are associated with changes in labor market and marital status in all four countries, but the magnitude of such changes are largest in the United States.

Notes: The goal of this paper is to compare the well–being of young children in Canada, Norway and the United States using Sen’s (1992) “functionings” perspective. We compare children cross–nationally in terms of ten “functionings” (low birth–weight; asthma; accidents; activity limitation; trouble concentrating; disobedience at school; bullying; anxiety; lying; hyperactivity). If we compare young children in Canada and the U.S. in terms of their functionings, there is not a clear ranking overall. Canadian children are better off for four of nine comparable outcomes; U.S. children are better off for two outcomes; Canadian and U.S. children are statistically indistinguishable for three outcomes. If we compare child functionings in Canada or the U.S. with those experienced in Norway, it is clear that Norwegian children fare better. There is not a single case in which children in either Canada or the U.S. have better outcomes than Norwegian children.

Notes: The advances made in the production and use of information and communication technology (ICT) during the past decades may have potentially large effects for long term economic growth. Indeed the substantial acceleration in real GDP growth in many OECD countries, but in particular in the United States, during the second half of the 1990s has led to suggestions that a “new economy” has emerged. In this new economy the old economic rules were supposed to have become invalid. For example, traditional concerns about the limits of maximum production capacity might disappear as the marginal costs of producing ICT goods and services are virtually nil. Moreover, the trade-off between inflation and unemployment could be reduced due to a more efficient inventory management.

Notes: Methodologies to derive price indices for information and communication technology (ICT) products vary between national statistical offices. This may lead to significant differences in measured price changes for these products and there has been concern about the international comparability of volume growth rates of GDP between several OECD countries. This article discusses the possible consequences for measures of economic growth of replacing one set of price indices by another one in the framework of national accounts. It is argued that the issue of ICT deflators cannot be dealt with in isolation and several other factors have to be taken into account, in particular whether ICT products are final or intermediate products, whether they are imported or domestically produced and whether national accounts are set up with fixed or chain weighted index numbers. Overall, results point to modest effects at the aggregate GDP level but may be more significant when it comes to component measures such as volume growth of investment, or of output in a particular industry.

Notes: Some observers have raised the possibility that production spillovers and network effects associated with information and communications technology (ICT) are an important part of the “New Economy.” Across U.S. manufacturing industries, however, ICT capital appears correlated with the acceleration of average labor productivity (ALP) growth as predicted by a standard production model, but not with total factor productivity (TFP) growth as these New Economy forces imply. Once one allows for productivity differences across industries, measured TFP growth is uncorrelated with all capital inputs, including ICT capital. This provides little evidence for a New Economy story of ICT-related spillovers or network effects driving TFP growth throughout U.S. manufacturing.

Notes: I develop three measures of structural change on the basis of U.S. data: changes in occupational composition, changes in input–output technical coefficients, and changes in capital coefficients. Using pooled cross-section, time-series data for 44 industries over the period from 1970 to 1990, I find that computer investment per worker has had a positive and significant effect on the degree of occupational change and changes in input and capital coefficients.

Notes: In this article we evaluate the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to the growth of value added during the past 15 years in France. Following North American studies, we use traditional growth accounting methods to assess the relative size of two types of contribution: on the one hand the effect of the use of information technologies (IT) on growth due to the accumulation of IT capital taking place within all industries; on the other hand the contribution of the production of ICT to growth due to the strong total factor productivity (TFP) gains achieved in the industries producing ICT. We use individual company data aggregated by industry, which provide us with a measure of the firm's computer stock and makes a detailed investigation possible.

Notes: Equivalence scales provide answers to questions like how much a household with two children needs to spend compared to a couple to attain the same welfare level. These are important questions for child allowances, social benefits and to assess the cost of children over the life-cycle for example. We discuss equivalence scales in an intertemporal setting with uncertainty. To estimate equivalence scales we use a panel from German households (GSOEP) containing subjective data on satisfaction with life and satisfaction with income to represent the welfare level. Because satisfaction is measured on a discrete scale we use limited dependent variable models for panel data in estimation. Using satisfaction with life data we find that larger households do not need any additional income to be as satisfied as a couple. Using satisfaction with income, however, yields equivalence scales that increase with household size.

Notes: In this article an attempt is made to generate internationally comparable income distribution data for the Federal Republic of Germany (1974), Mexico (1968) and the United Kingdom (1979). To that end, the same income concept and income unit were adopted for each country, i.e. respectively household available income and the household. Moreover, incomes from various sources were adjusted for inconsistency with National Accounts according to Altimir's methodology. The paper finds that the distribution of persons by household income per equivalent unit is probably the best way of looking at the distribution of economic welfare. It further demonstrates that the distribution of persons by household available income per capita is much closer to this ‘ideal’ distribution than the distribution of households by household available income. Finally, the paper discusses some of the problems arising from the fact that one normally works with grouped data. It is found that in the case of the three countries under study, grouping is likely to have had only a small impact on the results.

Notes: This paper provides a description of the annual Input-Output Tables for Canada. It describes the accounting framework and notes its close affinity to the one described in the United Nations report, A System of National Accounts. It demonstrates the ready derivation of GDP and Expenditure on GDP, both in current and constant prices, from the Input-Output Accounts as well as their relationship to the other subsystems of the Canadian System of National Accounts, particularly the Income and Expenditure Accounts and Real Domestic Product by Industry. Compatibility of basic accounting records of the transactors with the rectangular (commodity-industry) format of the Canadian tables is described. The need to have a consistent commodity classification and to develop a consistent valuation of all transactors in the economy is emphasized. The particular formulation of the Input-Output Impact tables is noted. The problem of deflating trade margins and the resolution of this problem is described. A strong plea is made for the economics profession to pay more attention to the problem of aggregation; all economic analysis is approached with blinkers but the aggregation problem isn't even recognized as a blind spot in most analyses.

Notes: Cooperation between the Austrian and Hungarian central statistical offices in the field of industrial productivity has a history of two decades. The first comparison, carried out in 1965, was partly experimental in objective and nature. The second full scale survey took place a decade later in 1975. This was followed by a further study of about two years duration of the level of productivity and the factors influencing it in three sectors: food, metallurgy and engineering. For this study the three sectors were broken down into 31 sub-branches and nearly 400 product groups. An important and labour-intensive element of the comparisons was harmonization of the sector and product classification system; UN recommendations were increasingly helpful for this work, and relying upon them will be expedient also in the future.In the decade under review the productivity advantage of Austrian industry increased, from about 40 percent in 1965 to an average 75 percent in 1975. The dispersion of sectoral productivity indices around the average value was significant in both years.The similarity of the 1965 and 1975 comparisons offered an exceptional opportunity to examine the reliability of extrapolation. The investigations unambiguously demonstrated that extrapolation did not give reliable results for a period as long as ten years, primarily because of structural changes in production and changes in price weights.The most important conclusion to be drawn from the investigation of the three selected branches is its extraordinary usefulness from the economic, political and methodological points of view. A further important conclusion is that the method of comparison must be selected in the light of an extensive consideration of the output and technological structure of the branches.