ALBERT

Description: China’s climate change policy has rapidly evolved from one of neglect to necessity with sinologists drawing on a wide range of theories in trying to explain this shift. The rising influence of citizens' movements coupled with international pressure are often cited as significant drivers behind the government’s evolving climate change strategy. But can the influence of public pressure and international lobbying offer a complete explanation for the government’s dramatic policy changes? In this article, we advance theoretical pluralism where three contending schools of thought are made complementary to offer distinct explanations for understanding the mechanisms and rationale for Beijing’s elite-driven climate change policy. In brief, by bridging three separate theoretical streams including rational choice theory, authoritarian environmentalism and advocacy coalition framework, we show that the interests of elites in China’s upper political echelon are the driving force behind the country’s climate change policy.

Description: Canadian Census data for 1981–2006 is used to document substantial differences in the destination locations of immigrants and interprovincial migrants. These differences have increased over time as have differences in the characteristics of the two migrant groups. Differences in age, education, and marital status of the two migrant groups explain little of the observed differences. Visible minority status and language differences are somewhat more important; however, much of the difference in migrant group destinations cannot be explained by measured characteristics.

Description: Electricity markets in the Mediterranean basin countries are characterised by the substantial disparity in their degree of openness and competitiveness. . There is also a difference in the maturity of their economies and their rate of economic and population growth. For example, the South and East Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs), which currently account for a quarter of total GDP of the region, are expected to grow at twice the rate of the North Mediterranean Countries (NMCs) until the end of the next decade. Similarly, the population in SEMCs is growing at a faster rate than the in NMCs. This imbalance has profound implications for energy stability and trade in the region. Development of cross border interconnections could reduce the energy gap among sub-regional markets and pave the way towards a well-integrated energy market. Additionally, in order for renewable energy to play an important role in the energy markets of the region the national electricity systems of the Euro-Mediterranean countries needs to be highly interconnected. Against this background, this paper aims to analyse the development of cross-border interconnections in the Mediterranean basin in light of existing disparities in the state of market maturities, institutions, national energy goals and regional objectives. Our analysis aims to illustrate how current provisions that regulate and discipline cross border interconnections in the EU do not apply, in the short- to medium-term, to SEMCs. And how the current regulatory framework, while designed to favour competition in electricity supply, appears to be poorly adapted to addressing security of supply at a regional level. The post Development of cross-border interconnections – A review of the case of Mediterranean basin appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This paper provides a detailed analysis of the local community response to a newly installed rare earth (RE) refinery facility and the factors underlying its acceptance. House-to-house interviews, using structured questionnaire, were conducted in 2013 ( N  = 370). Results show that the community was divided into deciding whether they agreed with the presence of the facility, 41.36 % (for) and 41.62 % (against). The remaining fraction of the community was undecided, which made up 17.03 % of the total respondents. This paper identifies six significant predictors of risk acceptance: gender, education status, place of residence, Factor 1 (variables—perception of safety, concern on effects, and trust in the operators), Factor 2 (variables—social and individual benefits), and Factor 3 (variables—no confidence in government). This study gives insights on how the public respond to potential hazardous facilities and highlights the need for policy makers to consider public sentiment which can interfere with further expansion of the RE industry.

Description: Ghana’s electricity generation capacity is currently insufficient to meet demand, making power outages and load shedding common. The resulting impact is potentially devastating for the country’s growth prospects. Traditionally, lack of an affordable and reliable fuel supply for power generation, coupled with ineffective institutions and an unfavourable investment climate, have resulted in Ghana’s electricity sector performing poorly. In light of the 2007 discovery of natural gas reserves in Ghanaian waters, this paper examines whether domestic gas could advance the performance of the electricity sector, and if so, how. The results of our analysis show that utilization of gas reserves in Ghana’s gas-to-power market is an economically superior strategy compared to an export-oriented utilization scheme. The lack of an effective regulatory framework for investment, skill shortages, and an inefficient electricity pricing structure continue to be the main constraining factors. Our analysis also considers possible approaches to modification of the electricity tariff in order to send the right signal to potential investors in generation capacity, without compromising the affordability of power supply. Executive Summary The post Gas-to-power market and investment incentive for enhancing generation capacity – an analysis of Ghana’s electricity sector appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Farming in coastal Bangladesh includes rice/shrimp and rice/non-rice cropping systems. The former has been highly profitable but has exacerbated salinization of soil and water. We evaluate the relative profitability, riskiness, and sustainability of the two cropping systems, using data from two coastal villages in Khulna District. Shrimp cultivation was initially very rewarding. However, over 12–15 years, the cropping system experienced declining profitability, increased salinity, and adverse impacts on rice cropping and the local environment. From 2009, farmers adapted the system by changing the pond ( gher ) infrastructure, adopting delayed planting of a saline-tolerant rice cultivar, flushing out accumulated salt with freshwater during rice cropping, and allowing the soil to dry out after harvesting rice. The budgeting results show that with current management practices, the rice/shrimp system is economically more viable (higher returns to land and labour and less risky) than the rice/non-rice system. Soil analyses showed that while salinity was higher in the gher during the dry season, it was significantly reduced in the wet season and was very similar between the two systems (1–2 dS/m). Hence, as well as being more profitable and less risky, the rice/shrimp system may well be more sustainable than previously observed.

Description: This paper examines the wage and job satisfaction effects of over-education and overskilling among migrants graduating from EU-15 based universities in 2005. Female migrants with shorter durations of domicile were found to have a higher likelihood of overskilling. Newly arrived migrants incurred wage penalties which were exacerbated by additional penalties resulting from overskilling in the male labour market and overeducation in the female labour market. Established migrants were found to enjoy wage premia, with no evidence of disproportionate wage impacts arising as a consequence of mismatch. Female migrants were found to have a lower probability of being job satisfied.JEL Classification Keywords: 1J21, J31, J61, Overeducation, Overskilling, Mismatch, Migrants, Gender, Pay, Job satisfaction.

Description: The aim of this paper was to present the contribution of the sugar cane industry to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector. Mauritius is taken as a case study. Sugar cane was introduced in Mauritius during the seventeenth century and production of sugar started around 60 years later. Since then, the cane industry has been one of the economic pillars of the country. Bagasse, a by-product of sugar cane, is used as fuel in cogeneration power plants to produce process heat and electricity. This process heat and the generated electricity are used by an annexed sugar mills for the production of sugar, while the remaining electricity is exported to the national grid. In fact, Mauritius is a pioneer in the field of bagasse-based cogeneration power plant; the first bagasse-based cogeneration power plant that was commissioned in the world was in Mauritius in 1957. The contribution of the cane industry in the electricity sector has been vital for the economic development of Mauritius and also in terms of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions by displacing fossil fuels in electricity generation, as bagasse is classified as a renewable source. Data obtained from Statistics Mauritius on electricity production for the past 45 years were analysed, and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated based on international norms. It is estimated that savings on heavy fuel oil importation were by 1.5 million tons of oil—representing a value of 2.9 billion dollars—thus avoiding 4.5 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. This figure can be further increased if molasses, a by-product of sugar cane juice, is used to produce bio-ethanol to be used as fuel in vehicles.

Description: This study presents information on the use of medicinal animals in a semiarid area of northeast Brazil, a region where animals have recognized importance in local popular medicine. The information on the use of animals for medicinal purposes was obtained through semi-structured questionnaires, complemented by free interviews and informal conversations. The results obtained showed that the residents of the area studied utilize a considerable richness of animal species ( n  = 42) for medicinal purposes, as occurs in other areas of Brazil’s semiarid region, demonstrating that zootherapy represents an alternative form of health care that is important to the inhabitants of the region. There is a need for new investigations on medicinal fauna, aimed at promoting the sustainable use of eventual medicinal species and preserving popular knowledge associated with the use of animal species.

Description: Switzerland changed its migration policy in the 1990s from a “non-qualified only” policy to one of almost free movement of labor. To analyze the impact of this policy change on the schooling outcomes of children of first-generation migrants, the paper compares the PISA results of first-generation pupils in 2000 with the scores of children tested in 2009, whose parents immigrated after the policy changed. We find that around 75% of the 40-point increase in the PISA score of first-generation immigrant students was due to changes in the individual background characteristics of their parents and to improved school composition.Jel codes: I21, I24, J15.

Description: This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to gas pricing. A mild 2013/14 winter in Europe and parts of Asia and a slowing of demand growth for LNG saw European hub prices and LNG spot prices begin to fall through the summer of 2014. The collapse of the oil price in late 2014 resulted in a lagged reduction in long-term contract prices (LNG and pipeline gas) to levels below $10/MMBtu in Europe and Asia. These events followed a period from 2011 to 2013 in which regional gas reference prices in the USA, Europe, and Asia appeared to be held within stable ‘corridors’ at levels which incentivized the progression of a long list of new LNG projects in North America, East Africa, Australia, and Russia. Many of these will likely be ‘on hold’ pending indications of a more supportive future price environment, but some 150 bcm/year of new LNG supply from the USA and Australia will have achieved start-up by 2020; this will add further pressure on prices and stimulate inter-regional arbitrage. The post Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 101 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Costa Rica is internationally recognized for its abundant biodiversity and being a leader in the promotion of education strategies for biodiversity conservation. We interviewed staff from 16 institutions developing key environmental communication, education, and participation projects for biodiversity conservation in the country. Through content analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and Chi-square tests, we examined the characteristics of the projects carried out by these institutions and developed a typology of four categories derived from six variables: primary audience, content, project purpose, location, scale, and facility. Then, we designed a conceptual model describing the integration of conservation and economic development in the educational projects. We found two key approaches related to this integration: vision of nature protection which aims to inform audiences of ecological concepts and focuses on schoolchildren and vision of sustainability which engages adult audiences and is management-oriented. Education for community - based environmental management may serve as a good example of educational projects which integrate conservation and economic development, implementing a vision of sustainability.

Description: This paper investigates the impact of Fairtrade and organic certification on household income of smallholder coffee farmers in the Jinotega Municipality of Nicaragua. Using a sample of 233 coffee farming households and employing endogenous switching regression model and propensity score matching method, the results found that Fairtrade and organic certification standards have different effects on the certified farmers; while Fairtrade farmers had experienced yield gains, organic farmers had the price advantage. However, the overall impact of these certification standards on the total household income is found to be statistically not significant. While some of the Fairtrade-certified cooperatives have used the social premium in creating community-level infrastructure, there is a need for more investment. The major constraint the organic-certified farmers face is lack of availability of adequate organic inputs such as manures and organic herbicides.

Description: This study employs an ex-ante analytical approach to explore the financial viability of cocoa agroforestry systems in Ghana using cross-sectional data on smallholder cocoa farmers in the Western Region of Ghana. The empirical results generally show that cocoa agroforestry systems are profitable, but the medium shade tends to be more profitable. The no-shade cocoa agroforestry has the highest yield compared with other cocoa agroforestry systems. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increasing the market price by 12.2 % tends to increase the profitability of cocoa agroforestry systems. Also increasing fertilizer price does not lead to any significant change in the profitability. The study recommends the medium-shade cocoa agroforestry system as the most profitable agroforestry system for optimizing ecological and economic outcomes of smallholder cocoa farmers in sub-Saharan Africa.

Description: The recent development of infrastructure all around the world has resulted in an increasing trend of online examination in universities. The paper is an approach in theory and practical aimed at analyzing the feasibility of sustainable examination in four universities and its environmental impact reducing the paper use terming it as green examination. The paper studied the integration of sustainability through the use of computers and technology in the examination of the universities viz. King Khalid University (KKU), Saudi Arabia, Integral University (IU), India, Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), India, and The Hague University (HU), The Netherlands. The study has analyzed the trend of paper requirement, paper utilized and paper wasted in all the four universities. The environmental impact resulting from reduced paper use has been also analyzed. The feasibility of e-examination, its implementation and the implications has been undertaken in the study. The study concludes that the e-examination can almost make the examinations paperless and feasible in the four universities.

Description: Malaysia has made a pledge to reduce voluntarily her carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO 2 -e) gas emission’s intensity of gross domestic product by up to 40 % based on 2005 levels by 2020. The country is considering implementing economic instruments, among others, to assist the achievement of emission reduction targets while contributing towards the nation’s energy security and sustainable development goals. This paper develops a computable general equilibrium model with explicit energy-emission linkages to appraise the economy-wide and welfare impacts of carbon and energy tax policies to reduce CO 2 emissions in Malaysia. Results indicate that the negative macroeconomic impacts of carbon and energy taxes are small relative to the quantum of emission reduction. A Hicksian welfare criterion is utilized to determine the impact of revenue natural shifts in carbon and energy taxes. Revenue neutrality assumptions show that carbon taxation is the best choice when it can provide a double dividend if the generated revenue is used for the purpose of consumption subsidy on household purchases. The notion of the double dividend is confirmed when the change in the consumption structure will result in a welfare improvement, while CO 2 emission is decreased effectively. The study also found that carbon tax policy results in greater emission reductions relative to energy taxes, while the use of renewable energy will increase more substantially.

Description: Earthworms are so closely incorporated into the soil structure that they are not calculated easily from the soil. Due to this property, their extraction from soil is tedious and time-consuming. Different methods have been used for their extraction from the soil, and efficiency of each method is affected by physical properties, viz., temperature and moisture of the soil. This study explored the advantage and disadvantage of different sampling methods for the extraction of earthworms such as hand sorting, octet method, formalin method, mustard extraction method, allyl isothiocyanate (AITC), and onion extraction method. Extraction efficiency of formalin is 20–60 times more as compared to hand sorting, but hand sorting gives satisfactory results for earthworms of more than 0.2 g live weight, and cocoons can also be recovered by this method. Octet method is effective in extracting anecic species and could easily be applied to site where chemical extraction is not a viable option. Extraction by mustard and AITC is simple, low cost, and more efficient for the extraction of deep-burrowing anecic species. The onion extraction solution is low cost and nontoxic which can be used as alternative to formalin. Like mustard, the onion solution is also inexpensive and not harmful to the earthworms and environment.

Description: Data from the International Social Survey Programme 2000 and 2010 environment modules were analyzed to explore the relationships between attitudes, behavior, and sociodemographic variables to citizens’ preferences to aspects of environmental discourse in the Philippines. Overall, significantly more people agree to multilateralism, equity, and the link between the environment and economic progress in 2010 as compared to 2000. A series of multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to determine significant predictors to peoples’ disposition to variables related to three overarching environmental discourses. After controlling for other covariates, the study found that the more the Filipinos adhere to statements toward science and nature that are negatively connoted: the more likely they are to agree to international multilateral commitments and ascribe to equity for poorer countries in environmental efforts; and less likely to disagree to the aspects of multilateralism, equity, and the link between the environment and economic progress. Furthermore, the results showed that demographics and civic participations generally did not have a statistically significant impact on Filipino’s agreement or disagreement to environmental discourses. The paper then discusses the implications of the findings and conclusions of the study.

Description: Inspired by the emergence of the positive psychology (PP) movement, recent environmental psychology studies have identified a need for further inquiry into “positive environments” (PEs). Recognizing that PP has largely neglected the role of environmental factors in the appearance of positivity, this paper proposes the study of person–environment relations in order to explain human well-being, psychological growth, sustainable behaviors, and other psychological positive factors, in addition to studying the material and social well-being that a positive environment provides. The traditional view of environmental positivity (i.e., the environment as an inexhaustible and infinite source of resources that satisfy human needs) is contrasted against an ecological vision of PE in which the conservation of the quality of the environment is as important as the satisfaction of human needs. A definition of positive environment is presented and discussed, which conceives PE as a context that promotes individual and collective benefits and that also influences human predispositions to conserve—in the long run—the sociophysical structures on which life depends.

Description: Some researchers insist that sustainability should be represented as a continuous quest, doubting that there is the ‘right’ way to be sustainable. Acknowledging the immensity of sustainability challenges, this article takes a different perspective, arguing that without understanding of concrete barriers and seeking solutions, the challenge of addressing unsustainable practices becomes unsurmountable. This article will summarize research in sustainability literature that indicates that sustainability requires a constant human population, as well as ecologically benign method of production. This article will survey a number of helpful frameworks that address the key obstacles to sustainability, namely population growth, and unsustainable production and consumption. These frameworks are discussed in the context of business-level solutions and production systems. As illustrated by examples of best practices as well as potential pitfalls associated with each system, these systems have the potential to move the quest for sustainability beyond ‘business as usual.’

Description: In this study, Mari Luomi examines how the resource-rich GCC countries are positioning themselves in the international relations of the green economy, focusing on the UAE’s state-led efforts to acquire the means of implementation for a national green energy transition. The study addresses four questions: What strategies, external relations, and engagements have the UAE and other GCC states developed over recent years that support a transition to a green energy economy? How are these engagements providing the means of implementation for a green economy transition? Are the national policy frameworks aligned with such a transition? What lessons can be drawn from the UAE’s experience by the other GCC states? The study concludes that, as the case of the UAE demonstrates, there are multiple ways in which the GCC states can actively employ their financial resources through external engagements to support a broader national green economy vision. However, enabling environments which are crucial for directing investments into green activities, jobs and infrastructure, are only beginning to emerge, and a lot of work still remains to be done in all six states, particularly in the areas of energy subsidy reform and sustainable job creation in productive sectors. The study closes with a number of related observations and recommendations. Executive Summary The post The International Relations of the Green Economy in the Gulf – Lessons from the UAE’s State-led Energy Transition appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: As the birthplace of the oil and gas industry, Azerbaijan’s long and rich history is intertwined with hydrocarbon production, with oil drilling pre-dating activity in Pennsylvania by 13 years. The involvement of foreign oil companies in the late 1800s, including the Nobel Brothers, resulted in the country becoming the world’s foremost oil producer at the turn of that century. The Soviet era precluded further international investment, but saw a dramatic growth in gas production commencing in the 1920s. The 1990s witnessed the return of the IOCs with the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field (oil and associated gas) and the Shah Deniz (gas and condensate) field developments reversing the trend of production decline and creating an export surplus in both oil and gas. In this paper, Gulmira Rzayeva provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges which were surmounted in the development of the Shah Deniz field, not least of which related to establishing export pipelines and marketing arrangements in Turkey, and (for Phase 2) Europe. Turning to the future, the paper details the nature and estimated potential of partially developed fields, discoveries at varying stages of appraisal and prospective structures in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. Apart from the inevitable range of uncertainty over future production levels and timing, what emerges are the twin challenges of drilling rig availability (it being impossible to bring an assembled rig into the Caspian due to width restrictions on the Volga-Don canal) and the highly challenging sub-surface drilling conditions. The modest prospects for domestic gas demand growth and Azerbaijan’s geographic location require that any future gas field development decision will also require a degree of certainty on export infrastructure capacity to the primary target markets of Turkey and South and South East Europe. These issues are covered in detail.   Executive Summary The post The Outlook for Azerbaijani Gas Supplies to Europe – Challenges and Perspectives appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, sustainable development became an important issue. Sustainable development often focuses on a single sector or parameter such as tourism, energy supply, water management, different aspects of nature conservation, or economy. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive picture of the development of a region since the Middle Ages and discuss whether this development can be evaluated as socially, economically and ecologically sustainable. We carried out a combined qualitative–quantitative assessment where we use quantitative data and indicators when available, as well as literature sources and expert knowledge from the region for a qualitative assessment. We judge that generally a sustainable development in the Allgäu region can be found, although also some critical points and contentious issues exist. An overall good economic and income situation for most people, the good ecological conditions and rich biodiversity, the relatively well-established social structure, as well as the identity of the people with the region and comparatively low social discrepancy, can be positively stated. In contrast, different actual and future threats exist such as new or planned infrastructure, increasing traffic or tourism activities in certain areas that degrade habitats and reduce species richness, intensification of agriculture in certain areas, but also abandonment of agriculture in other areas, loss of traditions and customs, and declining numbers of smallholders. The objective for the region would be to minimise these negative impacts and reinforce positive trends to assure the sustainable development of the Allgäu.

Description: We present a basic theoretical framework of ethnic identity, i.e., the level of immigrant's commitment to his or her host society as well as the immigrant's commitment to his or her home society. Our model can explain the emerging empirical literature which studies the effect of the immigrants' characteristics, such as age, gender, education, religion, age at arrival, stock of immigrants in the host country, etc., on their ethnic identity (such as the Ethnosizer). In addition, this paper can be used as a basis for future empirical and theoretical research on this topic.JEL classification: F22, J15, Z13.

Description: This paper investigates the saving behavior of migrants in the UK across different dimensions, i.e., comparing temporary versus permanent migrants and migrants versus natives. Established theoretical predictions show that migrants save more when they plan to stay in the destination only temporarily as target savers. Our empirical evidence takes into account the contemporaneous choice of savings and remittances. Moreover, when comparing the saving profiles of both natives and migrants, we uncover the weight of observable socio‐economic characteristics other than income and wealth. We use the British Household Panel Survey for the period 1991‐2008. The estimation results confirm that temporary migrants have a propensity to save 26 per cent higher than permanent migrants in UK. We also introduce an index of financial capability adjusted for income as an explanatory variable and, when employing the Blinder‐Oaxaca decomposition for the Tobit model of saving choice, migrants are more affected by observable social‐economic characteristics than natives.JEL classification: F22; D91; C40

Description: The share of electricity generation from environmentally friendly renewable energy technologies is growing in many electricity markets worldwide. The increase of intermittent supply, with low variable generation costs from sources such as wind and photovoltaic, increases the need for flexibility in electricity systems. Power systems require flexibility both in the long term (secured generation capacity) as well as in the short run (system balancing). This paper focuses on short term flexibility requirements, i.e. balancing real time deviations in supply and demand. Penetration of intermittent resources can increase the cost of balancing demand and supply as the net load has more variability compared to the load itself. In the UK, the total cost of balancing service exceeded £1 billion in 2013-14. Thus, it is important that the power systems have access to an economically efficient portfolio of flexible resources. To some extent, National Grid in the UK has already started to integrate demand side in its balancing service. For example, under the Frequency Control Demand Management (FCDM) scheme, frequency response is provided through automatic interruption of contracted consumers when the system frequency transgresses the low frequency relay setting on site. National Grid is also trying to utilise slower responding demand response for load following services. In recent years advances in the design and manufacture of intermittent renewable generation technologies has allowed these resources (for example wind turbines) to contribute to various balancing services needed by power systems. However providing some of these balancing services, such as frequency response and regulation through intermittent renewable, is more costly than using conventional generation. This research analyses whether balancing mechanisms can be adjusted to more economically accommodate increasing amounts of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES). We focus on the integration of the demand side as well as the input from intermittent RES into the balancing systems. The study investigates whether both market and product design on the procurement side of balancing mechanisms could be modified to improve flexibility sources’ integration and thus reduce balancing costs. We analyse this question comparing two major European electricity systems, the British and the German market. The post Integrating Demand Side and Renewable Energy Resources into the Balancing Market appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This short comment discusses how oil policy in the Arab world is often perceived by some parts of the western media, focusing on media coverage over the latest oil price cycle. An abridged version of this comment was presented at the 2nd GCC Petroleum Media Forum (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 22-24 March 2015). The post The Image of GCC Oil Policy in the Western Media appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Recent conjecture on the potential primacy of physical environmental components in education for sustainable development (ESD) efforts serves to question the centrality of social justice education as a component of ESD. This research explores a sustainable development student’s basic knowledge of social justice conditions in their country of residence and its relationships to policy attitudes that should be of importance to ESD, including beliefs about the importance of corporate social responsibility, their endorsement of gross national product as an effective measure of progress, their overall assessment of the social fairness of current national social justice policy, and their endorsement of the goals of Occupy Wall Street. Results obtained using path-model hypothesis testing indicate that accuracy of knowledge of US standing on social justice issues is significantly related to these policy attitudes, providing support for social justice content in ESD endeavors to create students empowered for engagement in broader policy goals.

Description: This paper brings new evidence to the existing literature on earnings differentials and returns to human capital for immigrants and natives. It is the first paper analysing this topic using data drawn from the Italian Labour Force Survey, a large nationally representative dataset. We show that returns to human capital are considerably lower for immigrants as compared to natives and that there is no return to pre-immigration work experience, suggesting imperfect transferability of human capital. In the second part of the paper we explore models of occupational attainment among immigrants and the native born. Our findings suggest that, contrary to what is observed for natives, immigrants’ human capital does not contribute to getting access to high-paying occupations.JEL classificationJ31, J24, J61, F22

Description: Motivations for migrants to return clearly change with integration, but the time-changing aspect of return migration has received little attention in the literature. This paper studies how migrants’ preferences for the home country change with intermarriage, i.e., marriage to a spouse from the host country. Specifically, I analyse the association between intermarriage and three outcomes related to migrants’ home country preference – intentions to return, remittances sent and actual return – using German panel data (SOEP) for the period 1984–2012. The results reveal a negative association between intermarriage and home country preference that is moreover stronger for female than for male migrants. However, some of the effect seems driven by selection since the relationship gets weaker once I control for person fixed effects.Keywords: Return migration, Intermarriage, Intentions to return, Remittances.

Description: Water scarcity at an alarming rate has been a limiting factor for sustainable agriculture in arid and semi-arid environments of the world. It has resulted in a number of problems such as poverty and food insecurity among farm households. Therefore, building and improving resilience, as a way to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity, is important for farm households. But one of the significant steps for planning to improve farm households’ resilience under water scarcity is investigation of the current level of resilience of these households and understanding their variances. Therefore, this study offers a classification of farm households’ diversity based on resilience. Primary data were collected from 260 randomly selected farm households in 21 villages around Parishan wetland, Iran. Farm Household Resilience Scale was used to measure resilience. Cluster analysis suggested three groups: highly, medium-, and low-resilient farm households. The results of comparing three groups revealed that highly resilient farm households characterize with higher risk management, more agricultural water security, more positive psychological traits, and better knowledge management. Also, they had better water quality, attended more agricultural extension activities, and used modern irrigation systems. Farm households’ resilience map using GIS software illustrated that there is a relationship between resilience and farm location from the wetland. The findings of this study could be used by planner and policy-makers to improve farm households’ resilience in arid and semi-arid environments. Improvement in knowledge management system is recommended as one of the most effective policy instruments in building resilience.

Description: In the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopian highlands, rainfall distribution is extremely uneven both spatially and temporally. Drought frequently results in crop failure, while high rainfall intensities result in low infiltration and high runoff causing soil erosion and land degradation. These combined factors contribute to low agricultural productivity and high levels of food insecurity. Poor land management practices coupled with lack of effective rainwater management strategies aggravate the situation. Over the past two decades, however, the Government of Ethiopia has attempted to address many of these issues through a large-scale implementation of a number of soil and water conservation measures. Despite the success of interventions, uptake and adoption remains low. The conceptual framework of this study is based on the premise that farmers are more likely to adopt a combination of rainwater management technologies as adaptation mechanism against climate variability and agricultural production constraints. This contrasts the previous work that typically examined a single technology without considering the interdependence between technologies. Data used in this study come from household survey in seven watersheds in the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. A multivariate probit model was used to account for the potential correlation and interdependence of various components of rainwater management technologies. Our results suggest that rainwater management technologies are related with each other; hence, any effort to promote the adoption of rainwater management technologies has to consider such interdependence of technologies, or failure to do so may mask the reality that farmers face a set of choices in their adoption decisions.

Description: The code for sustainable homes (CSH), which came into existence in 2006, has not yet been investigated to determine whether its rate of adoption is on course to meet the UK government’s 2016 target for full implementation. Therefore, the aim of this investigation is to ascertain the level to which CSH has been implemented and the barriers preventing this. A questionnaire survey was sent to 71 of the Home Builders Federation (HBF) member organisations in the UK, to gauge and ascertain the following: the barriers to the implementation of CSH; the implications of implementation; and the general awareness of CSH amongst practitioners. The results from the analysis of the survey reveal that full implementation by 2016 appears a rather difficult target, as factors like economic downturn are hitting HBF and similar organisations quite hard. However, a government-driven injection of sustainable schemes is helping to bring back confidence to house builders, while also enhancing the way that barriers are handled within the industry. The key findings of the literature review identify barriers preventing the housing sector from achieving zero carbon homes by 2016. These include cost, and legislative, cultural and technical barriers, and are concordant with the results from the data obtained during the primary research. The analysis suggests that with the current trend, achieving full implementation will be difficult. However, comments made by some practitioners appear to suggest that the appointment of a CSH champion for implementation would accelerate the process of full implementation and that the target could be reached by 2016.

Description: In this article, the attempt is made to address regime interaction in environmental governance by emphasising human livelihood action as a causal factor in this interaction. The paper elucidates how governing human behaviour on environmental resources is a process of interaction between different environmental governance regimes. With a qualitative case study of sand winning in the Dormaa Municipality and Dormaa East district in midwestern Ghana, the article shows strategic ways landowners and sand vendors pursue and legitimise their livelihood, and in the process bring about interaction between a tax regime on sand winning and the customary property rights regime of the area. It notes therefore that regime interaction is not only caused by differences in the structure of institutions, but also through the ways humans act to pursue their livelihoods. Based on this, the paper highlights the need for consciousness towards livelihoods of people and how such livelihoods are pursued as important contexts within which regimes function and interact. In this way, environmental governance can be more responsive to the well-being of people.

Description: This paper identifies the factors that influence perception of program benefit of the recipients when a hypothetical public program is implemented in reality. We compare pre- and post-program Willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for improved waste management in Bally Municipality, India, and find that post-program predicted WTP falls by more than 50 % even when if there are substantial improvements in urban environment. We show that this can be explained by the relative strength of leisure cost of effort to participate in the waste management program vis-à-vis the benefit derived from cleaner environment. Our study shows that mismatch between expected and offered service attributes might be a source of disutility and could also dampen households’ perceived value of the program benefits. In such cases, the reduction in WTP might act as an indication of the local bodies regarding the scale of outreach and expansion of the program needed to finance the operation and maintenance expenses by supplementing the property tax bases through user fees.

Description: The sharp decline in the oil price has altered the economic outlook for the GCC. After a period of sustained real GDP growth, which averaged 5.8 percent during 2000-2011, the IMF projects growth rates to slowdown to 3.4% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. Also, after achieving large fiscal surpluses that averaged 12.2% of GDP during 2000-2011, the GCC countries are projected to run fiscal deficits of 6.3% and 4% of GDP in 2015 and 2016. The change in the macroeconomic outlook is already having its impact on key sectors. The region’s stock markets have tumbled from their high levels reached in the first half of 2014, local banks are reining back on their lending, and the confidence of the private sector has taken a strong hit. But when compared to their counterparts in other parts of the world, the GCC oil exporters are in a much better position to withstand a period of lower oil prices. Key Gulf oil producers – such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE – have low foreign and domestic debt. Also over the last few years, these GCC producers have accumulated large reserves of foreign currency, which provides their economies with a large fiscal buffer. While GCC countries have become more resilient over the years (thanks in large part to their ‘prudent’ counter-fiscal policy and sustained period of high oil prices), deeply rooted structural challenges remain. This paper will explore some of these structural challenges and how GCC governments are most likely to respond to these challenges. The post GCC Economies in a Low Oil Price Environment: Resilience has increased but Structural Challenges Remain appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This book will explore how far the European Union can go towards its new goal of forming its 28 member states into an Energy Union, in the belief that this will deliver energy affordability, security and sustainability. Situating today’s challenges in a broad historical sweep of EU policy development, it will deal in turn with the growing tension of liberalisation v. state intervention and subsidy in markets, the revolution in the electricity sector, and the need for a new market design and demand response to complete that revolution successfully. It will also examine the external context for Europe’s go-it-alone decarbonisation effort, specifically the cost impact on the competitiveness of energy-intensive EU industries with the rest of the world and the energy security risks of dependence on Russian gas in particular. The book will be published early autumn 2015. The post Europe’s long energy journey: towards an Energy Union? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Global crude oil prices has plunged over 50% from its peak at $115 per barrel in June 2014 to around $50 per barrel in January 2015. In response to the falling oil price, the National Development and Reform Commission of China has lowered the retail prices of gasoline and diesel twelve times in a row since June 2014. The most recent retail prices for 90# gasoline and 0# diesel are 36% and 39% lower than their price levels six months ago, respectively. The plunging price of oil can have both direct and indirect impacts on the Chinese economy. For instance, it can reduce the costs of industrial production and residential consumption, which can have a direct impact on the producer price index (PPI) and consumer purchase index (CPI). In addition, the interconnection of industries in an economy means that the changes in oil price can also have indirect impacts on the price levels of industries that are not closely related to the oil industry. Some discussion is taking place around the issue of China’s economic development can benefit from the falling oil prices. However, there lacks sophisticated analysis on issues like to what extent the falling oil price could influence the Chinese economy and which sector is most likely to benefit from the price fall. This study aims to estimate the impacts of falling oil price on the general price levels (including CPI and PPI) and on industrial price levels in China. The Leontief Price Model (LPM) is used in this study. LPM is also known as cost-push input-output price model that captures the interconnections between different industries. The model has been used in the estimation of the impacts of price changes in an industry on the other industries and the economy. The post The Impacts of Falling Oil Prices on the Chinese Economy appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: The integration of large share intermittent renewable resources into countries’ energy mixes necessitates more operational flexibility in their power systems. By increasing flexibility, power systems become more resilient to the inherent uncertainty of renewable energy, thus becoming capable of operating at different generation levels and smoothly shifting among them. (IEA, 2014). Although flexibility has been typically associated with rapidly dispatchable power plants, alternative resources, such as grid interconnections, storage capacity and demand-side integration are also relevant to facilitating flexibility. The future degree of flexibility required and the need to diversify the flexibility resource portfolio (in order to reduce costs and improve reliability), will shape the future role of demand side programmes. It is envisaged that in the case of Great Britain, demand side participation along with pumped storage and gas turbine plants will constitute the main sources of operational flexibility for its power system (Pöyry, 2014). In fact with ICT advancement, regulation services and contingency reserves, through automated dispatchable demand side resources, are no longer a dream. There is also the possibility of integrating slower responding demand control programmes to provide longer load following services. From an economic perspective, providing substantial amounts of flexibility to the system is costly as it increases the cost of wear and tear, fuel and the operation of flexible generation units. Additionally, it exposes the consumers to significant disutility when it is provided through demand response. Therefore electricity markets need to incentivise the resource owners to offer flexibility services. This research answers the fundamental economic question of what incentives are needed to enable flexibility in electricity markets especially in the context of demand side resources. Our contribution is: i) to explicitly model contractual relationships arising in different forms of flexibility trading, under the presence of multi-dimensional asymmetric information, ii) to model flexibility as a related but distinct commodity with three features of start-up time, capacity and duration and iii) to take a microeconomic approach by modelling individual decisions by agents involved in the exchange of flexibility. The post Flexibility-Enabling Contracts in Electricity Market appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: While the goal of reducing environmental impact has become an urgent imperative for Chinese leadership, the central and potentially competing objective for policy makers and planners remains economic growth and job creation. This paper systematically examines the perceived trade-offs between pollution control regulation and employment at the microeconomic and macroeconomic scale. We synthesize the theoretical literature on the employment impact of pollution control regulation at the firm, industry, and economy levels and summarize the theoretically sufficient conditions for employment-enhancing regulation. The paper examines the US experience with the impact of pollution control on job growth in the 1980s and 1990s and draws out the mechanisms through which job growth and pollution control can be congruent, examining their adaptability to the Chinese context. Specifically, this paper highlights the importance of targeting regulations toward sectors where labor costs represent a small portion of overall costs or sectors with low labor intensity. We demonstrate that in the Chinese context, a transition to an economy with a higher proportion of tertiary output is likely to facilitate a joint strategy of stringent pollution control combined with job growth.

Description: The present study was conducted to determine the physico-chemical properties and heavy metal contents in soils under three land uses (agricultural, riverbank and roadside) from areas situated around rivers (Beas and Sutlej) in Punjab, India. Heavy metal contents in wheat samples (grain and fodder) growing in the area were also analyzed in order to find out potential human health risk through wheat consumption. The studied soils under the three land uses were found to be basic in nature with sandy texture, low soil organic matter and other soil nutrients. Comparatively higher amounts of soil nutrients were observed in soils under agricultural land use as compared to riverbank and roadside land uses. The amounts of heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Co and Pb) analyzed in soils were lower than the various national and international maximum permissible limits, but heavy metal contents observed in wheat fodder samples exceeded the maximum permissible limits for fodder. The soil-to-plant metal bioaccumulation factor was found to be highest for Cu (3.812 for soil–wheat grain and 1.874 for soil–wheat fodder), which showed the bioaccumulation of heavy metals from soils to crops, and the wheat straw-to-grain translocation factor was found to be highest for Co (4.375). The hazard index calculated to assess non-carcinogenic health risks was found above 1 for children, meaning that the wheat grains can pose health risks to children.

Description: We propose a theory of free movement of goods and labor between two economies in the presence of moral hazard. Each country produces two final goods where the productive efforts of workers cannot be perfectly observed, or verified only in the complex industry. We show that national institutional quality and the system of the early childhood care and education determine the pattern of international trade. However, individuals’ decisions to emigrate depend only on the national institutional quality, where the country with more developed institutions serves as the host country of immigrants. We conclude that international labor movement promotes international trade.JEL classification: B52, I21, F10, F16, F22, J24.

Description: Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) has experienced rapid urbanization in the last few decades. This accelerating urbanization trend mainly arising from high natural population growth and rural–urban migration along with rapid socioeconomic changes formed unplanned and uncontrolled urban expansion in peri-urban areas and resulted in degrading environmental quality and considerable changes in the urban landscapes of the TMR. Thus, the main objective of this research is to model spatial pattern of urban growth in eastern corridor of TMR using GIS-based SLEUTH model and the prediction of future developments of the region from 2014 to 2060. The SLEUTH is one of the most powerful models for urban growth modeling. This model analyzes the spatial pattern of urban growth based on historical data obtained from satellite images of 1987, 2003, 2011, and 2014. The results indicate that the most important factors affecting the urban growth are slope resistance and road gravity. The slope resistance is the highest coefficients value, which illustrates the limiting influence of the slopes on general trend of urban growth in eastern corridor of the TMR. The road gravity stands in second place where it displaces orientation of linear form of outlying pattern alongside the transportation network; it represents that the main pattern of urban growth in peri-urban areas of the region have a linear nature and edge expansion due to slope resistance and road-influenced growth, while spread, diffusion, and breed coefficients display low probability of new spreading center and spontaneous growth in the study area. In addition, the prediction of urban growth for 2020–2060 revealed that urban expansion which was 41,500 ha in 2014 will increase to 179,400 ha in 2060 with noticeable growth rate of 145.6 %. Comparing study area and other researches indicate that the urban growth happens in high rate in eastern corridor. One of the main reasons of this growth goes back to the formation of the second homes for residents of Tehran metropolitan city.

Description: On-farm tree cultivation is considered an important strategy to mitigate detrimental environmental impacts of agricultural land-use change (ALUC). In South Africa, however, little is known about farm-level incentives and constraints that govern ALUC decisions among small-scale farmers. To address this knowledge gap, this study employs a mixed multinomial logit model by using a combination of revealed and stated preference data. After correcting for endogeneity, the estimated results show that decisions about ALUC are rationally derived and driven by clear but heterogeneous preferences and trade-offs between crop productivity, food security and labour saving. The results further show that the decision to plant sugarcane is constrained by landholding, whilst farmland afforestation is negatively influenced by household size. Decisions to convert land use are also driven by the behaviour of peer groups and agro-ecological conditions. Based on these findings, important policy implications for sustainable land use are outlined.

Description: The sharp drop in the oil price between June 2014 and January 2015 turned the world’s attention to Saudi Arabia’s role in the oil market and the determinants of its oil output policy. Initial hopes that Saudi Arabia would come to ‘rescue’ and ‘balance’ the market and put a floor under the oil price were replaced by stories of ‘price wars’ and ‘conspiracy theories’ aimed at pushing prices down to achieve some wider geopolitical objectives. This raised a set of fundamental questions: has there been a shift in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy? And if the answer is yes, what are the implications of this shift in policy on the short and long run dynamics of the oil market? Has the role of ‘swing producer’ shifted from Saudi Arabia to the US shale producers? Is Saudi Arabia still relevant in the ‘new oil order’? This paper argues Saudi Arabia’s oil policy should not be analysed in isolation of the evolution of global oil market dynamics. It is also fundamentally rooted and shaped by some salient features of its political, economic, and social systems. Given Saudi Arabia’s multiple objectives, some of which are short term while others are long term, and also given the limited number of tools available to policy makers (essentially: adjusting output and signalling to the market in the short term, and determining the pace of investment in its energy sector in the long term), Saudi Arabia faces trade-offs with regards to its oil output decisions. One key trade-off is between the objective of revenue maximization vis-à-vis that of maintaining market share and production volumes above a certain level. With the advent of US shale, Saudi Arabia has entered uncharted territory where it is still learning about a new source of supply and its responsiveness to price signals, which has made the calculus of the trade-off more uncertain. It is in the context of ‘second best’, trade-offs, imperfect information, internal constraints, and wide uncertainty introduced by a new source of supply, that this paper attempts to explain the behaviour of Saudi Arabia in the current price cycle. Executive Summary The post Saudi Arabia Oil Policy – More than Meets the Eye? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This study’s aim is mainly to provide insights into the factors that affect sustainable tourism entrepreneurs’ behavioural intentions, employing data from Greece. Given that intention is a powerful predictor of actual behaviour, to stimulate sustainable entrepreneurial activity in the tourism sector and achieve sustainable development, it is important to study the factors that affect entrepreneur’s behavioural intentions towards sustainability. Findings through this empirical analysis support that entrepreneur’s demographics parameters and firm characteristics have distinctive effects in explaining respondents’ behaviour towards sustainable entrepreneurship and acknowledgement of sustainability options of a community. In particular, results suggest that younger entrepreneurs are probably more informed about the potential of the sustainability for the regions and are more likely to favour sustainable tourism practices. Entrepreneur’s income is also a statistical significant parameter towards sustainable entrepreneurship intentions within the tourism sector. Finally, entrepreneurs reported as important for the promotion of tourism sustainability the creation of knowledge networks and websites to focus on sustainable business and the promotion of environmental labels and certified management systems in tourism businesses.

Description: This study has attempted to estimate the energy consumption and emission of pollutants namely carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) from the road transport sector in Malaysia from the year 2012 till 2040. This was done using the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model. Estimates of energy consumption and emissions were evaluated and analysed under a business-as-usual scenario and three other alternative fuel policy scenarios of biodiesel vehicles (BIO), natural gas vehicles (NGV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV). The aim of this study has been to identify the potential alternative fuel policies that would be effective in reducing the future growth of road transport energy consumption and emission in Malaysia. Results indicate that the NGV scenario contributes towards the highest reduction in road transport energy consumption followed by BIO and HEV. The NGV scenario also achieves highest mitigation of emission of all the four pollutants. In the case of CO 2 emission, BIO scenario attains second highest mitigation, whereas in the event of CO, NOx and NMVOC emission, HEV scenario achieves second highest mitigation.

Description: In this presentation, given at the Bank of England, Bassam Fattouh looks at current developments in the oil market and explores some short and medium term prospects and concludes with the following observations: • It is important to be clear about causality; it is supply and demand imbalances that cause stocks to rise and for the shape of the curve to switch to contango. • High levels of stocks will continue to put downward pressure on the oil price and on time spreads. Until stocks are drawn-down, any potential price recovery will be capped. • Most pressure will be felt on light sweet crudes and on the Brent structure given that the North Atlantic (ex-US) has become the clearing destination for light sweet cargoes. • Saudi oil policy is not constant and Saudi cuts should not be excluded but the bar to implement the cut has risen. Saudi Arabia output policy has become less flexible both on the upside and the downside and its signaling power has reduced. • The perception of the loss of supply feedback to clear markets affects market sentiment, increasing volatility and increasing the risk premium in investment in energy projects. • Clearing excess supplies through supply and demand adjustment to lower prices is subject to uncertainty and lags. • So far demand growth has done most of the work, though it has not been strong enough to absorb the entire glut. • The supply response is yet to come, but global supply has become more varied and the nature of the investment cycle has changed – there are three investment cycles being superimposed on each other: The US shale cycle; the non-OPEC ex- US cycle; and the OPEC/Middle East cycle. The outcome of these combined investment cycles on output is yet to be seen. • A key question remains: If non-OPEC outside the US falters and OPEC investment does not materialise, can US shale fill the projected gap? The post Global Oil Markets – Current Developments and Future Prospects appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This study was an attempt to document the indigenous Lepcha people’s perception on climate change-related issues in five villages of Dzongu Valley located in Kanchandzonga Biosphere Reserve, India. Personal structured questionnaire was used for interview of 300 households selected randomly. Results showed that 85 % of the households have perceived climate change, mainly in the form of increasing temperature and unpredictable pattern of rainfall. In terms of climate change-related events, 75 % of the households believed that wind is becoming warmer and stronger over the past years. Majority of the households have observed changes in crop phenology, while about 90 % agreed that the incidences of insect pest and diseases have increased over the years, especially in their large cardamom crop. A comparison of community perceptions, climatic observations and scientific literature shows that the community have correctly perceived temperature change, unpredictable occurrence of rainfall and increased incidence of insect pest and diseases, which have largely influenced the experiences and perceptions regarding climate-related events. Results reveal that households have adopted the use of locally available material as mulches against soil erosion, to conserve the soil moisture and manage soil temperature. Majority of the households have diversified their cropping system through traditional agroforestry systems and intercropping. Unfortunately, most of the households were unaware about the scientific sustainable approaches to combating impact of climate change. This documentation will aid in assessing the needs in terms of actions and information for facilitating climate change-related adaptation locally in Sikkim state of India.

Description: Decentralized power generation, using locally available biofuels from non-edible oilseeds, is an option for rural electrification in many developing countries. However, due to prevailing high price of non-edible oilseeds, such as Jatropha curcas , the cost of electricity generation is very high. This paper provides detailed financial analysis of straight vegetable oil (SVO)-based decentralized power project and proposes an innovative model for enhancing their financial viability. While for implementing agency operational cost recovery is the key for viability, affordable tariff is crucial for end-users. The paper attempts to estimate minimum desired price of electricity from the stakeholders' (producer and users) perspective using data gathered from selected operational SVO-based power generation projects in India. Analysis carried out in this paper indicates that operating the decentralized power plant at higher capacity utilization factor, by introduction of productive load, and differentiated tariffs for commercial and domestic consumers may not alone be sufficient to achieve the financial viability. The paper proposes an innovative integrated model of using biogas, obtained from the by-product de-oiled cake of non-edible oilseeds, as a feedstock for power generation, instead of using the SVO in engines. This reduces the fuel cost of power generation, thereby helping to bring down the tariff within the paying capacity of rural consumers. The main produce, viz. extracted non-edible oil, which was otherwise used as fuel for generating power, can be sold in local market for earning revenue, thereby enhancing the project’s economic viability. This paper sets forth the proposed integrated model as a viable biofuel-based decentralized power project for sustainable rural development in areas with adequate availability of oilseeds.

Description: Argentina is the largest gas consuming country in South America with a century of oil and gas production history. Following the economic crisis of 2002 Argentina’s upstream investment declined and in 2011 it became a net fuel importer. For gas, low regulated domestic market prices resulted in the need for LNG imports. Argentina possesses conventional but vast unconventional gas resources. The most promising formation is the Vaca Muerta (‘Dead Cow’) which is the size of Belgium and has a shale gas formation thickness of 1,000 feet in places. This paper will assess the development potential for its shale gas resource and whether the country is capable of developing the necessary policy framework to achieve gas production self-sufficiency in the 2020s. The paper will also compare the fundamentals of Argentina’s gas industry with the key enablers and success factors in the US. The post Shale Gas in Argentina – Will it become a real game changer? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This study will proceed in two stages and therefore potentially will constitute two separate papers. The pipeline bottlenecks and price de-linkages identified in previously published papers by Beatrice Petrovich will be calibrated with the EWI’s European gas network simulation model to ascertain whether it can ‘re-create’ the transport congestion events observed historically. The second stage will be to model the consequences of future scenarios of Russian pipeline gas and LNG supply to study whether the observed bottlenecks are exacerbated or eased and indeed what the potential is for new problems to appear. This work will also enable the evaluation of the relative merits of proposed new interconnectors and LNG import terminals. Beatrice Petrovich’s work has been very well received by commercial players and regulators and there is much interest in the potential of this study. The post European Transportation Bottlenecks for a Range of Global Scenarios appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Ghana’s electricity generation is currently insufficient to meet demand making power outages and load shedding common. The resulting impact on the economy is devastating for the country’s growth prospects. Traditionally, lack of an affordable and reliable fuel supply for power generation, coupled with ineffective institutions and an unfavourable investment climate, have resulted in Ghana’s electricity sector performing poorly. In light of the recent discovery of natural gas reserves in Ghanaian waters, this paper examines if and how domestic gas could advance the performance of the electricity sector. The results of our analysis show that utilization of gas reserves in Ghana’s gas-to-power market is an “economically” superior strategy, compared with an export-oriented utilization scheme. The lack of an effective regulatory framework for investment and an inefficient electricity pricing structure continue to be the main constraining factors. Possible approaches to modification of the electricity tariff in order to send the right signal to potential investors in generation capacity, without compromising the affordability of power supply, are also discussed. The post Gas to power and investment incentive for enhancing generation capacity: An analysis of Ghana’s electricity sector appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This two-part study investigates household preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for water quality improvement of the Swat River in Pakistan. First, a four-point Likert scale was used to rank preferences for water quality benefits without using any financial metric. Results show that households have comparatively strong preferences for non-use benefits. Second, a contingent valuation question was designed to determine WTP for adopting a management plan developed exclusively for water quality improvement in the Swat River. The estimated annual mean WTP per household for water quality improvement is $2.40 when donating to an NGO. Generalizing this value to households living in Swat Valley would generate up to $544,000 per year. The present value aggregate benefit for 15 years would be sufficient to cover the present value of aggregate costs to adopt the management plan. A mandatory program that would require paying for the management plan generates half the WTP compared to the voluntary plan, but is still sufficient to cover costs and may be more feasible than a voluntary program because payment is assured.

Description: Howard Rogers, Director, Natural Gas Research Programme, shares insights and conclusions on his paper published in early July 2015. To access the talk please click here . Please click here to access the accompanying slides. The post The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Gazprom has faced increasing threats in its two traditional markets, Europe and the FSU, as well as being challenged by the Independents in its domestic Russian market. As a result, its sales volumes have fallen from 550bcm in 2008 to 444bcm in 2014, and it has been forced to look for other outlets for its gas. In addition geo-political pressure caused by the crisis in Ukraine has catalysed a desire to find alternatives to a European market that is increasingly becoming eager to diversify away from Russian gas. The result has been a “pivot to Asia” that has seen Gazprom sign two major pipeline deals that could see 68bcm of gas exported to China in the 2020s, as well as the possibility of LNG exports into North East Asia. This has raised questions about Russia’s overall export strategy and the possibility of Europe becoming less important to Gazprom as an outlet for its gas. This paper analyses this question, reviewing the potential for Asia to become a major market for Russian gas and assessing what implications this might have for Europe. It also analyses the gradual shift in Gazprom’s attitude towards European exports, in particular prompted by the cancellation of the South Stream pipeline and the announcement of its replacement with Turkish Stream. It questions whether Gazprom is preparing a new, more competitive, trading strategy in Europe, and asks how this may be related to the emergence of Asia as a viable alternative market for Russian gas. In particular, the paper reviews the competitiveness of Russian gas versus the alternative sources of supply to Europe, especially US LNG, and reviews the political and commercial drivers of Gazprom’s export plans as well as the response of European consumers and the EU regulators. The paper’s preliminary conclusions suggest that Europe will continue to rely on Russian gas for the foreseeable future, and also that Gazprom’s plans to develop alternative markets will not provide Russia with any realistic “insurance policy” against European diversification plans. In fact both parties will have to continue to co-operate commercially, but in a more market-driven environment thanks to the emerging internal market in the EU and the growing supply of LNG in the global gas market, which is forcing all suppliers to become more competitive on price. The post The Political and Commercial Drivers of Russia’s Gas Export Strategy appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This paper investigates whether knowledge flows from host to source country as a result of migration, alleviating the negative effects associated with outward migration. Using a fixed effects Poisson regression, patent citations are used as a proxy for knowledge flows and regressed on immigration and other control variables; the effect of immigration on patent citations is found to be positive and statistically significant. Additionally, the coefficient on immigration is found to be robust to different parameter changes in the model. These results suggest that reverse knowledge flows from outward migration help mitigate negative effects of outward migration on source countries.Keywords: Immigration, Patent citations, Knowledge flows, Brain drain.

Description: The military conflict in eastern Ukraine, and the deterioration of political relations between Russia, Ukraine and the EU, is influencing relationships in the sphere of energy, including natural gas. Russia has stepped up its efforts to diversify gas transit away from Ukraine, and Gazprom says that it intends to cease using Ukraine as a transit corridor completely after 2019, when its contract for doing so expires. Ukraine has begun to make serious efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas imports, and the idea of cutting them to zero has entered political discourse. The paper will consider: Scenarios for the transit of Russian gas to Europe after 2019. Could Gazprom cease using Ukraine as a transit corridor? If it does so, how will its gas reach its European customers? European attitudes: What is, or might be, the attitude of companies who purchase Russian gas, and of European governments and the EC, to the changes? Transit and storage: Under the post-2019 scenarios for transit, what are the realistic prospects for Ukraine’s gas transport and storage businesses? To what extent might they be integrated into European gas networks? What is the likely direction of Ukrainian policy? The Ukrainian domestic gas market: To what extent is the dramatic fall in demand levels in 2014-15 a guide to the future? How much will be changed by market reform? To what extent could gas be replaced by other fuels? The post Ukraine as a Gas Transit Corridor and Gas Market: What Happens after 2019? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This working paper will analytically review the terms and structure of Iran’s newly developed petroleum contracts, namely IPCs. It begins with explaining the political economy context within which the previous investment contracts (known as ‘buybacks’) were developed and tries to shed some light on the unknown aspects of buybacks when they were introduced in mid 1990s. The paper then continues to elaborate on the reasons behind the development of IPCs and examine their legal, fiscal and technical terms. Before the discussion ends with some concluding remarks, various political, commercial and market implications of IPCs’ implementation both for foreign and domestic petroleum companies and Iranian authorities will be addressed. The technical content and some political analysis of this paper will benefit from the insight of Mr. Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, the Head of Iran’s Petroleum Contract Revision Committee, who was also the mastermind behind the development of buybacks in mid 1990s. The paper will be co-authored with Ms. Ayeh Katebi who has served as the Advisor and Secretary to the Revision Committee since its establishment in 2013. The post Iran’s Petroleum Contract appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: The recent increased Chinese activity in the Platts Dubai window is yet another manifestation of the eastward shift of international oil markets. In light of these changing dynamics, the necessity for a new marker for East of Suez crude oil pricing is commonly taken for granted. But must the benchmark for East of Suez necessarily move to Asia, or may strengthening the Middle Eastern benchmark system offer a feasible alternative? To answer this question, this comment briefly examines the factors underlying the current eastward shift of international oil markets. Subsequently, two candidates for an Asian marker for East of Suez will be presented briefly (ESPO Blend, Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Contract). Hereafter, the four main arguments for the necessity of such a new Asian marker will be presented and critically evaluated. Finally, a proposal to rebuild the current Middle Eastern benchmark system, in order to strengthen its position in times of eastward shifting oil markets, is outlined. The proposal aims at linking the physical Dubai market with the Oman futures market on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange. This would allow price signals from the physical Dubai assessment to feed into the DME Oman futures contract (and vice versa) as well as offer the opportunity for physical players to hedge the Dubai price exposure by means of the DME Oman contract. This comment argues that this would not only cope with shifting oil market dynamics, but also solve several issues currently weakening both the Dubai marker and the DME Oman futures contract. The post Eastward Shifting Oil Markets and the Future of Middle Eastern Benchmarks appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: ᅟThis study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.JEL codesF22; C23; C53

Description: Released today by the Center on Global Energy Policy The US Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on Qatar’s Position in Gas Markets is a collaborative study between CGEP, Columbia and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies that examines how Qatar may be impacted by major changes to the global LNG market. The expansion of Qatar’s LNG industry in the latter half of the 2010s, unprecedented in its scale and pace, established the country as the world’s largest LNG supplier. Such a move was made possible due to a sound business strategy of diversified sales and the disciplined execution of multiple projects. In addition to supporting its LNG business, Qatar’s offshore North Field also underpinned the rapid growth of a domestic industrial sector and limited regional pipeline exports. LNG is a dynamic sector however and Qatar has many new challenges to address, including the rise of competing new supplies from Australia, the US, East Africa, Canada and Russia, uncertainty about the pace of Asian LNG demand and a desire on the part of LNG importers to move away from oil-indexation as the price formation mechanism for long term LNG contracts. With its moratorium on new LNG projects expected to remain in place for the medium term at least, Qatar will seek to adapt its sales portfolio strategy in order to optimise its revenues in a more competitive market. This said, Qatar has a number of comparative advantages. Its geographic location enables it to access Asian and European markets without undue transport cost penalties, co-production of condensate and NGLs from the North field adds significant robustness to the economics of existing and future new projects and its remaining undeveloped reserves available for LNG notably exceed those of its competitors. In addition Qatar’s proven track record on project implementation and its low cost location would also allow it to deter competition, should it announce an intention to resume an expansion of capacity. Although the recent falls in oil and regional gas prices will impact Qatar’s hydrocarbon revenues, the country has the financial resilience to weather these storms and to remain a powerful force in the LNG business for the foreseeable future. Full Report The post The US Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on Qatar’s Position in Gas Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: The present study investigates the relationship between land degradation and the evolution of the productive structure in Italy during the last 50 years (1960–2010). The objectives of the study are twofold: (i) to present and discuss an original analysis of the income–environment relationship in an economic-convergent and environmental–divergent country and (ii) to evaluate the impact of the (changing) productive structure and selected socio-demographic characteristics on the level of land vulnerability. The econometric analysis indicates that the relationship between GDP and land degradation across Italian provinces is completely reverted once we move from a cross-sectional analysis to panel estimates. While economic and environmental disparities between provinces go in the same direction, with richer provinces having lower levels of LD, over time the growth process increases LD with the economic structure acting as a significant variable.

Description: Over the past 20 years, payments for ecosystem services (PES) has become increasingly popular as a mechanism to promote environmentally sustainable land-use practices, and a burgeoning literature has been produced on this policy approach. The goal of this paper is to offer a comprehensive review of this literature, and to focus on four major aspects of PES: (1) its efficiency in delivering environmental conservation, (2) its impacts on the well-being of local land users, (3) its interaction with local norms of distributive justice and environmental stewardship, and (4) its interplay with broader national policies and socio-economic trends. Two major insights are drawn from this review of the literature. First, the conceptualisation of PES according to the neoclassical economic theory of efficient market transactions and utilitarian human behaviour may be unrealistic and counterproductive. In terms of efficient financial transactions, the physical properties of public ecosystem services obstruct the voluntary establishment of PES schemes by direct beneficiaries, practical constraints exist on the enforcement of outcome-based conditionality, and efficiency goals may need to be partly sacrificed to prevent the exacerbation of social inequalities. In terms of human behaviour, land users’ actions are shaped not only by personal utility calculations, but also by intrinsic norms of distributive justice and environmental stewardship; the interaction of PES with these intrinsic norms can negatively impact on its local legitimacy and even ‘crowd out’ existing motivations for the conservation of nature. The second insight is that land users’ capacity to shift to sustainable land practices, while influenced by the direct payments, remains strongly determined by broader socio-economic trends and by national strategies for rural development and institutional reform. On the basis of these insights, a flexible, participatory, and integrated conceptualisation of PES that can better account for this range of physical, socio-economic, and normative factors is proposed here as more capable of delivering efficient, equitable, and resilient conservation outcomes.

Description: The article is devoted to the research of ecological clusters as a tool of improving the ecological safety in developing countries. The authors offer to use a specifically developed methodology for determining the level of ecological security in developing countries. Formation of a city skeleton on the basis of ecological clusters, generated on the basis of biologically active natural complex, is offered. We offer the methodology of introduction of the cluster organization of the city environment with introduction models on the example of the city of Volgograd of the Russian Federation.

Description: This paper follows on from ‘ Saudi Arabia’s Oil Policy: More than Meets the Eye? ’ published in June 2015, which raised a set of fundamental questions in relation to the sharp drop in the oil price between June 2014 and January 2015, and OPEC’s decision, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, not to cut output in response. We develop a simple analytical framework, which formalizes Saudi Arabia’s decision-making process relative to the fundamental revenue maximization-market share trade-off in the 2014-15 oil price fall. Using a simple game, we show that under uncertainty, it is always better off for the Kingdom to assume shale oil supply is elastic and not to cut output. But we also argue that as Saudi Arabia learns more about this new source of supply, its policy will adapt accordingly. The fact Saudi Arabia’s oil policy could change as the trade-off between revenue maximization and market share evolves, and as new information is transmitted to the market, will keep the market second-guessing. It will continue to shape market expectations and influence market outcomes. Executive Summary The post The Dynamics of the Revenue Maximisation–Market Share Trade-off – Saudi Arabia’s Oil Policy in the 2014–2015 Price Fall appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: The oil market has changed very significantly over the past 10 to 15 years. Concerns about carbon emissions and climate change have increased materially. And, more importantly, the US shale revolution has introduced a new source of supply, with very different production and financing strcutures. In this comment, Spencer Dale, the Chief Economist of BP, considers the implications of these changes and argues that the principles and beliefs that served us well in the past are no longer as useful for analysing the oil market. He calls for a new set of principles reflecting the New Economics of Oil. These four principles are: Oil is not likely to be exhausted : As such, there shouldn’t be a presumption that the relative price of oil will necessary increase over time. A key factor governing the future price of oil is whether the standardised, repeated, ‘manufacturing-like’ processes characterising shale production, with the associated rapid gains in productivity, can be applied to other types of oil production. The supply characteristics of shale oil are different to conventional oil : Shale oil is more responsive to oil prices, which should act to dampen price volatility. But it is also more dependent on the banking and financial system increasing the exposure of the oil market to financial shocks. These financial shocks have the potential to increase oil market volatility. Oil is likely to flow increasing from west to east with important implications for energy markets, financial markets, and geo-politics. OPEC remains a central force in the oil market but when analysing OPEC’s ability to stabilise the market, it is important to consider the nature of the shock driving the change in oil prices and, in particular, whether it is a temporary or persistent factor. The post The New Economics of Oil appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: From 2006 onward, a series of oil discoveries put Uganda on the global energy map. These were the largest onshore oil finds in sub-Saharan Africa in over two decades, and part of an oil and gas surge in East Africa and a wider energy boom on the continent. But almost immediately after the discovery of oil, a series of regulatory disputes between the Ugandan government and international oil companies delayed development and production. This paper provides an overview of the history of oil exploration in Uganda, it considers future production and reserve levels and infrastructure development along with Uganda’s regulatory environment, through the refinery demands, tax disputes, and contractual negotiations between the Ugandan government and international oil companies and how politics may impact the advancement of Uganda’s oil industry. The post Oil in Uganda – Hard bargaining and complex politics in East Africa appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Northern Rangelands of Kenya have continued to grapple with management challenges largely due to a lack of understanding of the dynamics thereof. Eroding customary institutions and new institutional arrangements characterize the system suggesting that adaptation is taking place to cope with the change. It is imperative that these socio-ecosystems adjust to the disturbance without disintegrating into a different state that is controlled by a different set of processes to ensure sustainable rangeland management. To understand the nature of change, the study sought to evaluate institutional arrangements engaged in tackling growing socio-economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. Three study sites namely Kinna, Makurian and Westgate, representing three types of institutional arrangements (elders only, group ranch committee and community conservancy board), were investigated. Key informants, focused group discussions and household survey methods were used to gather data. Data were managed and analysed using Ms Access, Ms Excel, social network analysis and SPSS. Findings indicate that more actors (internal and external) are engaging in management of social economic and ecological factors challenging development within the last decade. The co-management approach allows increased capacity to tackle these challenges and further presents more opportunities for a diversified livelihood, two key features of ecosystem resilience. Findings are useful as the Kenya government implements the National Land Policy that recognizes the need to restructure community land and its management.

Description: In most low- and middle-income countries, the service coverage of faecal sludge management is very limited resulting in uncontrolled disposal that directly impacts to water resources and public health. Similar to other countries, Thailand is facing faecal sludge management problems which lead to serious challenge to its local government authorities who are responsible for services provision. Local factors may strongly affect faecal sludge management services. Because of this problem, the management measures should be formulated in responding to significant factors affecting the performance of FSM services. This study aimed to evaluate existing faecal sludge management services in Thailand, their strengths, and weaknesses, and identify the significant factors influencing the performance of services. Based on data collected from 160 municipalities in Thailand, factors influencing the faecal sludge management services were identified using multiple regression analysis. The indicators involving operational efficiency, service performance, and treatment feasibility were used for the assessment of faecal sludge management performance. Significant factors encompassing technical, financial, social, and institutional aspects were identified based on each indicator. The findings identified the significant factors and proposed effective measures for improving faecal sludge management services such as providing technical assistance, implementing awareness programmes for private operators and households, and subsidizing investment and operation costs of faecal sludge management facilities.

Description: This paper explores how inflows of low-skilled immigrants impact the tradeoffs women face when making joint fertility and labor supply decisions. I find increases in fertility and decreases in labor force participation rates among high-skilled US-born women in cities that have experienced larger immigrant inflows. Most interestingly, these changes have been accompanied by decreases in the strength of the negative correlation between childbearing and labor force participation, an often-used measure of the difficulty with which women combine motherhood and labor market work. Using a structured statistical model, I show that the immigrant-induced attenuation of this negative correlation can explain about 24% of the immigrant-induced increases in the joint likelihood of childbearing and labor force participation in the US between the years 1980 and 2000.JEL codesD10, F22, J13, J22, R23

Description: We investigate the relationship between land-use changes (1987–2007) and the spatial distribution of the average declared income of resident population in a southern European metropolitan region (Athens, Greece) as a contribution to the analysis of suburbanization processes in the Mediterranean region. To demonstrate that urban expansion is accompanied with multiple modifications in the use of the surrounding non-urban land, we developed a computational approach based on spatial indexes of landscape configuration and proximity as a result of changes in the local socio-spatial structure. Diversity in the use of land surrounding built-up parcels in the Athens’ metropolitan region increased significantly between 1987 and 2007, reflecting a progressive fragmentation of the exurban landscape. The percentage of forests and (high-quality) natural land surrounding built-up parcels increased from 8.1 to 9.4 % between 1987 and 2007. The reverse pattern was observed for (low-quality) sparsely vegetated areas, declining from 65 to 47 %. Large built-up parcels were surrounded by a higher percentage of natural land than small parcels. The largest increase over time in forest and natural land surrounding built-up parcels was observed in municipalities with high per capita declared income, and the reverse pattern was observed for sparse vegetation. Our results demonstrate that scattered urban expansion determines a polarization in suburban areas with high-quality and low-quality natural amenities. Sprawl increases economic inequality and socio-spatial disparities contributing to a spatially unbalanced distribution of natural amenities with higher consumption of high-quality land.

Description: This paper reports environmental analysis results of food and tannery Tunisian companies to identify the features of environmental management system (EMS) that is implemented recently. EMS via ISO 14001 has become one of the principal tools used by companies to handle environmental aspects and impacts through their various complex activities interacted with environment. While several companies have implemented and maintained a formal EMS, it has related mainly to their benefits in short term without responding to the sustainable development recommendations and practices. This study focuses on the strong linkage between the EMS effectiveness of food–tannery Tunisian companies and sustainability. A proactive environmental management approach is proposed and adopts a qualitative and quantitative assessment for factor analysis. It provides a strategic EMS framework and principles for sustainability to evolve the future enterprises’ benefits that has a clear influence on environmental performance in long term.

Description: While impacts of climate change on agricultural systems have been widely researched, there is still limited understanding of what agricultural innovations have evolved over time in response to both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Although there has been some progress in formulating national adaptation policies and strategic planning in different countries of South Asia, research to identify local-level adaptive strategies and practices is still limited. Through eight case studies and a survey of 300 households in 15 locations in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, this paper generates empirical evidence on emerging agricultural innovations in contrasting socio-economic, geographical and agro-ecological contexts. The study demonstrates that several farm practices (innovations) have emerged in response to multiple drivers over time, with various forms of institutional and policy support, including incentives to reduce risks in the adoption of innovative practice. It further shows that there is still limited attempt to systematically mainstream adaptation innovations into local, regional and national government structures, policies and planning processes. The paper shows that the process of farm-level adaptation through innovation adoption forms an important avenue for agricultural adaptation in South Asia. A key implication of this finding is that there is a need for stronger collaborations between research institutions, extension systems, civil society and the private sector actors to enhance emerging adaptive innovations at the farm level.

Description: Most discussion on the future of the market for internationally traded gas focuses on the ‘swing towards Asia’. Specifically, China and India, the world’s two most populous nations, are frequently highlighted as major drivers of future demand. Yet, there is considerable ambiguity over the assumptions underpinning this observation, particularly with regards to India. In fact, despite several years of relatively high economic growth in the last decade, it is difficult to make a confident and accurate assessment of India’s potential as a major Asian gas market. Official government forecasts carried out within a central planning framework tend to be overly optimistic, whereas projections by multilateral organisations tend to be cautious but confused. The reason for this lack of clarity is that the Indian gas sector is broadly characterised by two moving parts: one which has prices and quantities set by the Indian government, and another which utilises gas at market (LNG import) prices. Additionally, there is some overlap between the two, further complicating attempts to assess these as separate markets. The lack of a clear pricing signal therefore makes it difficult to determine future levels of demand. This paper analyses whether or not recent reforms to the pricing of domestic gas could potentially change the Indian gas landscape by making price signals clearer. It investigates three important questions: First, could gas pricing reforms reverse the recent decline in domestic production? Second, could they lead to new upstream investments in gas? Finally, what is the impact of the reforms on downstream consuming sectors? The paper begins with an analysis of the 2014 gas pricing reform, followed by an overview of demand, supply and consumption. It then delves into the three broad questions posed above, and concludes with observations on whether reforms to gas ‘price formation’ (as opposed to ‘price level’) in India are in fact achievable, or whether they will continue to elude successive governments, and on whether India can ever be Asia’s next gas market ‘Goliath’. Executive Summary The post Gas Pricing Reform in India – Implications for the Indian gas landscape appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This joint paper, to be written in partnership with Angus Miller will examine the development of the Kazak oil industry during the post-Soviet era and will outline the potential for its future expansion. Two major PSAs with foreign investors (Tengiz and Karachaganak) have dominated output to date, supported by significant Chinese investment in medium-sized Kazak companies, with only a limited number of smaller fields developed. A third PSA, covering the giant Kashagan field, is under development but has hit multiple problems that have delayed initial production. The paper will analyse the interaction between all these projects and the state companies (KMG and KMG E&P) and institutions which govern them, and will question whether the expansion plans that have been outlined by the government are possible in a lower oil price environment without significant reform. The tax and licensing regimes may require radical change, while the issues of corruption and overbearing bureaucracy may also undermine future growth in an industry that makes a huge contribution to the Kazak economy. The paper will ask whether positive change is likely under the current regime or under any future government that may emerge following the ultimate departure of President Nazerbayev. The post The future of the Kazak oil sector appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This paper forms part of an OIES Gas Programme research theme focusing on natural gas demand development and markets. While most attention has been given to the power sector, little has been done to understand the factors driving future gas consumption in the industrial sector and what are the expectations at the 2030 horizon. This sector still represents about 20% of total gas volumes consumed in OECD Europe (2013) but has been facing an –almost-steady decline since the early 2000s especially in the major gas markets. The rationale behind this paper is that each sector of consumption has specific characteristics and complexities which are essential to understand in order to look at future trends. This paper follows the previous publications on natural gas demand outlook in Europe. The post Industrial gas use in Europe appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Between 2011 and mid 2013, the Brent price oscillated within a very narrow range, with quarterly average Brent prices exceeding the $100/barrel mark for 14 consecutive quarters. This relative stability has been remarkable given the various shocks that have hit the oil market ranging from macroeconomic shocks, to geopolitical shocks, to unplanned outages and to North America’s positive supply shock. This price stability however was disrupted and since June 2014, the oil price has fallen sharply. This fall in the oil price has occurred despite the general deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop in many parts of the world. This paper examines the main factors responsible for the fall in the oil price and the short-term and long-term implications for the oil market and the oil industry. It will also examine the behaviour of OPEC over the last cycle and how market perceptions about the role of its key player Saudi Arabia have changed. The paper will then draw some main lessons, making some comparisons with the previous oil price cycles. The post The Oil Price Crisis of 2014-2015: Causes, Implications and Lessons appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This paper analyses the fundamental drivers of Russian oil production in the current low oil price environment, highlighting a number of dichotomies currently at work. The low oil price has forced Russian oil companies to cut dollar expenditure and to re-assess their investment strategies, apparently putting oil production and exports at risk. However, the impact of rouble devaluation and changes in the fiscal regime can help to offset these negative factors. US and EU sanctions have restricted access to technology and finance, but import substitution and a search for alternative sources of funding can start to redress these problems. New field developments are being delayed, but a number of projects are already underway that can help to keep production flat in 2015. Arctic and tight oil projects have been undermined by sanctions but this has caused the Russian industry to re-focus on arguably more economic assets in core regions. Finally, even if production does remain flat or even decline slightly, exports may continue to grow as domestic refineries reduce throughput due to recent tax changes that disadvantage production of fuel oil. Executive Summary The post Key Determinants for the Future of Russian Oil Production and Exports appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: The aim of this paper is to outline the main structural features of the upstream oil and gas (O&G) sector of two important but maturing producers, namely Oman and Abu-Dhabi/UAE. More than ever, both countries are dependent on the continued and/or intensified deployment of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques to manage, maintain, and expand production in both oil and gas. A decade ago, Oman successfully reversed declining reserves and production through heavy investments in these techniques. Arguably, Abu-Dhabi is at a similar point now, as it is renewing its concessions while confronting the needs for massive investments to increase output. Another common feature is their “gas impasse”, namely the competing demands on gas produced to satisfy power generation, industrialisation needs, and for re-injection in EOR techniques (around 20%-30% of gas use in both countries). The paper will trace the evolution of fiscal regimes, and of the underlying IOC/NOC relationship: despite a common starting point of long term concessions, Oman’s upstream has displayed more flexibility and diversity of IOCs, including Asian companies, which are also rising in Abu-Dhabi’s upstream. It will argue that the key drivers in both cases are: the capabilities of NOCs (EOR techniques; managing large-scale long term projects); and IOCs’ mastery of the technology required for the geology of reserves in the host country. The post Oman and Abu Dhabi’s Upstream: a comparative analysis of structure and outlook appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Natural gas is expected to provide approximately 10% of China’s total primary energy consumption in 2020, which is a significant increase from 5.9% in 2013.The growing demand is a significant factor in the global gas demand balance as well as a source of uncertainty. In 2013, China’s gas demand increased by 13.3% which accounted for half of the additional gas demand in the world. Some projections indicate that China will account for 30% of the additional global gas demand between 2014 and 2019. A number of studies have examined natural gas development in China at national level, however, for a country as large as China, the analysis of natural gas development needs to address its regional variations. China’s regions have distinctive features in terms of the nature of gas supply and demand. Firstly, natural gas resources are unevenly distributed; most of the producing regions (such as Shaanxi, Xinjiang and Sichuan) are remote from the main demand centres (the coastal areas). Secondly, the consumption patterns of different regions show significant differences. For example, in Sichuan, the largest gas consumer in China, industrial use accounted for 43% of the total gas demand, followed by residential use (42%). Power and heat supply only accounted for 0.6% of the total gas demand. By contrast, in Guangdong, the 2nd largest gas consumer in China, power and heat supply accounted for 50% of gas demand, followed by industrial use (30%) and residential use (10%). This study aims to examine and compare the production and consumption patterns of natural gas in China’s provinces. A number of provinces are examined in this analysis, including Sichuan, Xinjiang and Shaanxi, representing the largest producing region, and Guangdong, Beijing and Shanghai, representing the largest consuming region. The outcome of this research can provide a better understanding of China’s gas market at regional level. The post Natural gas in China: a regional analysis appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This paper examines how left-behind children influence migration duration in China. We first present a simple illustrative model that incorporates economic and non-economic motives to migration duration. Using individual data from a survey carried out in Wuwei county (Anhui province) in 2008, we find that migrant parents of children in primary school tend to delay their return, a result we interpret as illustrating the need for migrant parents to accumulate money for their offspring’s education. In contrast, parental time appears substitutable by coresiding grandparents who contribute to delay the parents’ return, especially mothers, when they have children below the age of 12.JEL classification: J61, J13, C41, O53

Description: With US shale gas dominating the headlines of the energy media for the past several years, Canadian gas has been somewhat overshadowed. While gas industry followers outside North America may have been aware of the reduction in Canadian gas exports to the US, they will likely have missed the complex interaction of lower cost US shale invading regional Canadian markets formerly domestically supplied. This situation has been further exacerbated as Canadian transportation tariffs have been raised to compensate for lower throughput. Ieda Gomes provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of these and other key elements of Canada’s gas fundamentals and how they have, and will continue, to evolve. The loss of Provincial and Federal tax and royalty take due to lowered exports, production growth and prices is also important and leads to an assessment of potential new market segments such as natural gas and LNG vehicles and Tar Sands sectors (currently impacted by low oil prices). This inevitably leads to the exploration of the obvious replacement for the lost pipeline export volumes, namely LNG exports. Readers will already be aware of the numerous proposed LNG export projects on Canada’s West and East Coasts. The paper provides a succinct description of each of these and details at the individual project level, and in overview, the significant challenges to be overcome; both physical, in terms of transportation distances and greenfield construction (in a region of insufficient skilled resources), and political, in terms of the myriad overlapping approval and consent processes that have to be satisfied prior to construction starting. A lack of clarity on the LNG-specific fiscal framework adds yet another layer of uncertainty. The final hurdle is of course the relative competitiveness of Canadian LNG projects to US Gulf Coast brownfield projects and Australian expansion projects at a time when; global demand for LNG over the next decade appears to have declined, the window for new supply requirement appears to have moved back to the early 2020s, and Asian buyers appear set on moving away from oil-indexed long term contract prices. Executive Summary The post Natural Gas in Canada – what are the options going forward? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: The environmental impact statement (EIS) plays an important role in informing decision makers about the likely impacts of development projects on the environment and suggesting mitigation measures for addressing such impacts. Increased effort to improve the quality of EIS has been a focus on its proposed mitigation measures and their likely effectiveness. There is, however, a lack of such studies in Zimbabwe’s mining industry. Following a conceptual framework of EIS quality as an indicator of mitigation effectiveness, this paper assesses the quality of EIS and its likely influence on the effectiveness of its proposed mitigation measures. Twenty-two purposively sampled EISs for mines operating along the Great Dyke of Zimbabwe were reviewed using the modified Lee and Colley (Review of the quality of environmental statements, Manchester EIA Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester 1992 ) quality review package and Mitchell’s (EA the Magazine of IEA and EARA 28–29, 1997 ) mitigation hierarchy guidelines. Results show that 77 % of the EISs are of satisfactory quality, while 51 % of the proposed mitigation measures focus on adverse impact reduction. The deficiencies are traced to vagueness in the regulations regarding baseline data collection and analysis and conceptualization of mitigation. Based on the results, it is suggested that more efforts should be aimed at reviewing the EIA regulations in order to improve the quality of EISs.

Description: Efficiency analysis lies at the heart of incentive-based regulation of electricity distribution networks. Most regulatory authorities have graduated from using exclusively ex ante (rate of return based) reviews of firms’ expenditures to relying also on ex post assessments of their costs – the latter are underpinned by benchmarking techniques (Poudineh and Jamasb, 2014). However, an assumption underlying these frontier analysis and efficiency measurement techniques is that all units share the same production technology and face similar environmental conditions. In the framework of electricity distribution companies, this assumption is unrealistic as exogenous environmental factors could also affect the efficiency of firms. Existing literature recognises the fact that the cost efficiency and quality of service performance of electricity distribution network operators can be affected by various firm-specific non-discretionary factors (environmental conditions) that are beyond the control of the management, such as geographical and climatic conditions. But this typically uses factor analysis to reduce the number of environmental factors into a few composite indices and applies second stage regression or pooled versions of stochastic frontier models to examine the effect of the composite environmental parameters on the efficiency of utilities. In contrast with this conventional method that studies the effect of environmental factors in isolation, exogenous environmental factors may in fact impact directly on the structure of technology by which the inputs are converted to output, or they may influence the efficiency with which inputs are converted to output. The question then arises over how the marginal effects of these environmental variables should be computed, and more importantly, whether both inefficiency (efficiency) and its marginal effects should be based on the same formula. Models in which the environmental variables enter into the mean and/or the variance of inefficiency have been proposed in some earlier studies. In this work we investigate the determinants and marginal efficiency effects of exogenous environmental variables using a balanced panel of 128 Norwegian electricity distribution companies observed from 2004 to 2010. The post Marginal Efficiency Effect of Environmental Variables: The Case of the Norwegian Electricity Distribution Networks appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: This paper applies a critical perspective towards the notion of Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) through a literature review of theoretical and methodological aspects. This review identifies how an SLCA can influence change to a product’s life cycle, the key actors impacted by an SLCA, and how an SLCA is operationalized towards the product life cycle, particularly within the UK.

Description: This paper is an update on the book ‘ Sino-Russian Oil and Gas Coooperation ‘ by Keun-Wook Paik published by OUP in 2012. It aims to explain the importance and implications of strengthened Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation; it also tries to analyse whether this level of cooperation could move into a strategic level. It reviews the changing characteristics of Sino-Russian oil and gas relations, from symbolic and scratching-the-surface levels during the 2000s, to the meaningful and substantial levels seen in the 2010s, based on the two major crude supply deals in 2013 and the two major gas deals in 2014. It explains the real capacity and the limits to Russia’s oil and gas exports to China and the main drivers of Russia’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy. It also explores China’s domestic gas supply capacity in the coming decades, and at elaborates on both the role of the WEP corridor development for pipeline gas imports from the Central Asian republics and Russia, and the potential of LNG supply to the coastal provinces. It covers price and financing factors, and the issue of multilateral gas cooperation in the north-east Asian region and the implications of Sino-Russian gas deals for future LNG projects. The post Sino-Russian Gas and Oil Cooperation – Entering a New Era of Strategic Partnership? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Massanjore reservoir (area ~67 km 2 ) located 84 km downstream from the most distant upstream source capacitates 620,000,000 m 3 of water, and regulated flow characters are highly responsible for dam downstream alteration of hydrological, sedimentological and geomorphological characteristics of Mayurakshi River. In dam after condition, monsoon water level (mean water level during monsoon months) and pre-monsoon water level (mean water level during pre-monsoon months, i.e., March–May) have attenuated about 0.56 and 0.32 m, respectively. Maximum duration of high flow period during monsoon has reduced up to 16.5 %; coefficient of variation of diurnal fluctuation of water level during monsoon has increased from 31 to 47 %. Suspended sediment load in Mayurakshi River is reduced to 34 % in dam after period as recorded at Narayanpur gauge station. Average suspended sediment load has decreased even after Tilpara barrage construction from 4.960 to 4.350 mg/L. Average suspended sediment load is 7.875 mg/L in the sites of dam upstream course, and this average is only 4.46 mg/L in different sites of dam downstream course. Volume of discharge has decreased up to 11.3 % during monsoon time in dam after condition. Such reduction in discharge volume in turn has reduced about 24.6 % bed load-carrying capacity. As a result, huge deposition within channel invigorated channel bed aggradations (average 73.6 cm up to Saspara, site 14 at Fig.  1 ) in dam after condition. Narrowing of active channel, coarsening of channel bed materials, lowering of lateral stability, accelerating rise of braiding index, mixed response of the channel adjustment of the tributaries to local scale positive or negative base level change due to river bed aggradations and degradation, etc. signify the morphological alteration of dam downstream course. Fig. 1 Mayurakshi River basin indicating Massanjore Dam, Tilpara barrage and sample working sites

Description: Although there has been several efforts made to reduce land degradation and improve land productivity in Ethiopia, farmers’ investments in sustainable land management (SLM) remain limited. Nevertheless, the results regarding determinants of farmers’ investments in SLM have been inconsistent and scattered. Moreover, these factors have not been reviewed and synthesized. Hence this paper reviews and synthesizes past research in order to identify determinants that affect farmers’ investments in SLM practices and thereby facilitate policy prescriptions to enhance adoption in Ethiopia, East Africa and potentially wider afield. The review identifies several determinants that affect farmers’ investments in SLM practices. These determinants are generally categorized into three groups. The first group is those factors that are related to farmers’ capacity to invest in SLM practices. The results show that farmers’ investments in SLM practices are limited by their limited capacity to invest in SLM. The second groups of factors are related to farmers’ incentives for investments in SLM practices. Farmers’ investments in SLM are limited due to restricted incentives from their investments related to land improvement. The third groups of factors are external factors beyond the control of farmers. The review also shows that farmers’ capacities to invest in SLM and their incentives from investments have been influenced by external factors such as institutional support and policies. This suggests that creating enabling conditions for enhancing farmers’ investment capacities in SLM and increasing the range of incentives from their investment is crucial to encourage wide-scale adoption of SLM practices.

Description: International migration not only enables individuals to earn higher wages but also exposes them to new environments. The norms and values experienced in destination countries can change the behavior of migrants and also of family members left behind. This paper suggests that brain gain can take place due to a change in the educational aspirations of caregivers in migrant households. Estimates for Moldova show that international migration raises parental aspirations in households located at the lower end of the human capital distribution. The identification of these effects relies on GDP growth shocks in the destination countries and migration networks. These results imply that aspirations are a highly relevant determinant of intergenerational human capital transfer and that even temporary international migration can shift human capital formation to a higher steady state by inducing higher educational aspirations among caregivers.JEL classification: D03, O12, I21, J61.

Description: Electricity networks exhibit natural monopoly characteristics and are thus subject to economic regulation. In the absence of competition there is little incentive for innovation especially if the regulatory model is not innovation friendly. At the same time, electricity networks play a pivotal role in realising the objective of low carbon economy. In fact, integrating distributed energy resources, electric vehicles and implementing smart grid solutions requires ample amounts of investment and innovation by grid companies. Thus the question is how to incentivise innovation in regulated infrastructures. In recent years, electricity sector regulators have recognised this need and incorporated specific innovation stimulus in their regulatory framework of network companies. The UK electricity market regulator Ofgem, for example, initiated Innovation Funding Incentive in 2004 where the distribution network companies were allowed to spend half a percent of their revenue on innovation projects. In 2010 price control review, this was replaced by Low Carbon Network Fund (LCNF) under which distribution companies were competing for innovation projects. In the most recent regulatory framework (RIIO) Ofgem has allocated three specific funds for innovation. These all highlight the importance of innovation on the agenda of electricity sector regulators. This paper analyses the problem of incentivizing innovation under regulation with a specific reference to the case of electricity network and the RIIO regulatory model in the UK. The result of this paper provides some insights for the possible approaches that the innovation incentives can be designed and implemented under regulation. The post Innovation incentive under regulation – The case of the electricity networks appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: China is now the world’s largest oil consumer and importer. While this gives China significant clout in the global oil market, its weight is compounded by the fact that in 2013, China was also the world’s fourth largest oil producer, after Saudi Arabia, the US and Russia. The oil sector has been dominated by three large state-owned oil companies, who have been developing China’s domestic reserves, building and operating pipelines, managing the country’s increasingly sophisticated downstream and filling China’s strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). These companies employ millions of workers, enjoy ministerial rank and close connections to the top leadership. Over the years, as China’s demand has outstripped production, they have also become major investors in the global upstream and established a presence in oil trading. They now rank among the top ten global oil companies. Yet despite China’s growing international reach, the oil sector remains heavily dominated by the Chinese State: From a majority stake in the oil companies, through price setting and diplomatic support for outbound investments, the government maintains significant influence over commercial decisions. At the same time, the NOC’s technical knowhow and market expertise offer them an important role in policy-making. This relationship is poorly understood, but it is now set to further evolve, alongside government efforts to gradually liberalize the energy sector. As the government embarks upon an ambitious economic restructuring and environmental upgrading that will allow more private participation throughout the oil industry, the regulatory framework, as well as China’s oil and gas companies will also have to adjust. This research project will provide a historic overview of the development of the Chinese oil industry, focusing on the relations between the government and the oil companies. It will then assess how the current reform agenda and the liberalization of the oil industry will impact government-industry relations, policy making as well as China’s global oil profile. The post The structure of China’s oil industry – Past trends and future prospects appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: A multi-objective goal programming model was developed for water distribution from multiple sources to multiple users. The model was applied in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the period of 2015–2050. In Riyadh, water sources are groundwater (GW), desalinated water (DW) and treated wastewater (TWW), while the users are domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. The model was applied to: (1) satisfy water demands and quality; (2) maximize TWW reuse and GW conservation; and (3) minimize overproduction of DW and overall cost. In 2015, the required allocations of GW, DW and TWW are 3286, 662 and 609 MCM, respectively, which are projected to be 4345, 1554 and 1305 MCM in 2050, respectively. GW source is likely to satisfy the predicted withdrawal of GW till 2035, while probabilities of non-satisfaction of full demands of GW in 2040, 2045 and 2050 were 0.04, 0.23 and 0.51, respectively. Supply of DW and reuse of TWW are needed to be increased to satisfy the predicted quantities during 2015–2050.

Description: Agriculture is expected to provide food in a sustainable manner while also partially contributing to the energy problem as well as to bio-material supply. Moreover, fossil fuels scarcity calls for an increase of energy efficiency in agricultural processes. This study evaluates patterns, trends, driving factors and trade-offs of energy use in selected agricultural systems and aims at grouping them into clusters with similar energy and social performances. Results show that in 2010 the highest power densities and energy intensities of production are found by crop sector of cluster 5 (China: 59.19 GJ/ha, 15.29 MJ/kg dm) and cluster 3 (Japan: 50.11 GJ/ha, 12.32 MJ/kg dm) as well as by livestock sector of cluster 3 (Japan: 328.47 GJ/ha, 103.08 MJ/kg dm), while the lowest values in clusters 2 and 4, including selected developing countries and USA. Cluster 3 (Japan) also shows the lowest energy intensity of economic value of crops (2.75 MJ/$), while cluster 5 (China) the highest one (23.96 MJ/$). Cluster analysis also sheds light on trends, identifying two groups: cluster 1*, gathering most European countries, USA and Japan, characterized by a decreasing trend of all energy indicators; and cluster 2*, including developing countries, the Netherlands and Spain, characterized by an increasing trend of indicators. Results highlight the importance of an integrated framework for evaluating energy use as well as of a multi-criteria approach to understand the trade-offs and interplay of performance indicators.

Description: This special issue of the Forum is dedicated to Robert Mabro who founded the Oxford Energy Policy Club in 1976, the Oxford Energy Seminar in 1979, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in 1982. The fact that these institutions still thrive today is testament to his vision and foresight. In this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, Robert’s colleagues and friends reflect on the man and his work and how his extraordinary contribution to the field has enriched our understanding of energy markets, the behaviour of the various players, the dynamics within OPEC, the consumer-producer dialogue, and the interaction between governments and oil companies and how his deep insights and intellectually integrity continue to shape and influence thinking. The post Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 100 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies .

Description: Some studies show that there are external, infrastructural, and economic factors that enable individuals and communities to act ecologically. A variable associated with sustainable behavior is the level of satisfaction with infrastructural and economic factors, which in turn relates to recycling behavior. The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and validity of the customer satisfaction with recycling scale and to analyze its relationship with sociodemographic variables (age and gender), house location (in the center or the suburbs, population size of), and psychological variables (self-reported individual recycling behaviors, general satisfaction with recycling service companies, and the perception of costs and the quality of service). A total of 1498 individuals responded to the in-home questionnaire related to these variables. Exploratory and confirmatory factorial analyses confirm a good fit for a four-dimensional model: assurance, tangibles, empathy, and communication. Results show that those individuals who live in town centers tend to self-report higher levels of satisfaction with tangibles than those living in the suburbs. Population sizes correlate significantly and negatively with the four dimensions of service satisfaction, while age seems to relate significantly and negatively to all the studied variables. Finally, we discuss the implications regarding the importance of customer satisfaction in facilitating the environmentally responsible behavior.

Description: Green public procurement (GPP) promises great potential for improving the environmental impact of many public organizations. However, the effects this instrument will have in the near future are unclear as there is little evidence on its exact level of engagement. This study thus aims to analyze the contents of tenders in terms of green criteria by specifically focusing on the building and construction sector. A total of 164 Italian public tenders were analyzed according to a protocol of analysis based on the GPP toolkit developed by the European Commission. Starting from a content analysis used in previous studies, a complete list of green criteria was developed in order to investigate their prevalence in the sample selected, with the aim of exploring their frequency, distribution and correlation. The results revealed a limited use of green criteria, which were mainly included as technical specifications and award criteria, thus shedding light on the difficulties that procurers are experiencing in the implementation of GPP practices. Several suggestions for policy makers and managers are identified for a better and faster implementation of green public procurement tools and methods.