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  • Articles  (101,488)
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  • 2015-2019  (46,550)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 1-16 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Partial duration series ; unbiased risk ; Bayesian risk
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544174
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Derivation of bivariate probability density functions with exponential marginals (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 55-68 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Bivariate probability distribution ; random variables ; zero marginals ; Finch-Groblicki method
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A vivariate probability density function (pdf),f(x 1,x 2), admissible for two random variables (X 1,X 2), is of the form $$f(x_1 x_2 ) = f_1 (x_1 )f_2 (x_2 )[1 + \rho \{ F_1 (x_1 ),F_2 (x_2 )\} ]$$ where ρ(u, v) (u=F 1(x 1),v=F 2(x 2)) is any function on the unit square that is 0-marginal and bounded below by−1 andF 1(x 1) andF 2(x 2) are cumulative distribution functions (cdf) of marginal probability density functionsf 1(x 1) andf 2(x 2). The purpose of this study is to determinef(x 1,x 2) for different forms of ρ(u,v). By considering the rainfall intensity and the corresponding depths as dependent random variables, observed and computed probability distributionsF 1(x 1),F(x 1/x 2),F 2(x 2), andF(x 2/x 1) are compared for various forms of ρ(u,v). Subsequently, the best form of ρ(u,v) is specified.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544178
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 77-87 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Flood ; random ; distribution ; estimation ; probability ; entropy ; fractile constraints
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations. Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable. Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods. It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544180
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On the use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis in the simulation of random fields (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 125-134 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis ; random fields ; simulation ; non-homogeneous fields
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In several fields of Geophysics, such as Hydrology, Meteorology or Oceanography, it is often useful to generate random fields, displaying the same variabilitity as the observed variables. Usually, these synthetic data are used as forcing fields into numerical models, to test the sensitivity of their outputs to the variability of the inputs. Examples can be found in subsurface or surface Hydrology and in Meteorology with General Circulation Models (GCM). Different techniques have already been proposed, often based on the spectral representation of the random process, with, usually, assumptions of stationarity. This paper suggests that Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, which leads to the decomposition of the covariance kernel on the set of its eigen-functions, is a possible answer to this problem. The convergence and accuracy of the method are shown to depend mainly on the number of EOFs retained in the expansion of the covariance kemel. This result is confirmed by a comparison with the turning band method and a matrix technique. Furthermore, a synthetic example of non-homogencous fields shows the interest of EOF analysis in the direct simulation of such fields.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543054
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 173-188 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Entropy ; spectral analysis ; streamflow forecasting ; univariate model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper, the first in a series of two, employs the principle of maximum entropy (POME) via maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) to develop a univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting. Three cases of streamflow forecasting are investigated: forward forecasting, backward forecasting (or reconstruction) and intermittent forecasting (or filling in missing records). Application of the model is discussed in the second paper.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544056
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modeling kinetic non-equilibrium using the first two moments of the residence time distribution (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 155-171 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Kinetic non-equilibrium ; residence time ; spatially variable chemical reactions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A method for simulating field scale transport of kinetically adsorbing solutes is described. The non-equilibrium adsorption is modeled as a birth and death process and is coupled with the particle tracking approach using the first two moments of the distribution of the particle residence time, i.e., the time that a solute particle stays in the liquid phase. A single residence time distribution, regardless of the initial and final phase, is demonstrated to yield an accurate description of chemical kinetics in the vast majority of field scale problems. The first two moments of the residence time distribution are derived as a function of chemical reaction rates and the transport time interval Δt. It is shown that the first moment of the residence time represents a measure of the speed of the chemical reaction relative to the transport time scale Δt which is chosen depending on the velocity field. The second moment of the residence time reflects the relative importance of the chemical kinetics versus local equilibrium conditions for the given transport time step Δt. The simulated spatial moments of the contaminant plume are compared in the one-dimensional case with available analytical solutions to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed technique. A two-dimensional case for stratified formations is presented to study the transport behavior for heterogeneous velocity fields and variable distribution coefficient, hypothesized as being negatively correlated with hydraulic conductivity. The results show that the enhanced plume spreading and the statistics of the arrival time distribution appear to be more sensitive to the spatially variable distribution coefficient than to the kinetics alone. In fact, the second spatial moment was almost doubled in the case of spatially variable distribution coefficient.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543057
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Stochastic partial differential equations in groundwater hydrology (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 239-251 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Parameter estimation ; maximum likelihood estimation ; stochastic partial differential equation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Part I of this series of two papers (Unny, 1989) dealt with the theoretical derivation of the moment equations for the stochastic partial differential equation in the water table depth forced by stochastic rainfall input. Part I also developed a maximum likelihood estimation procedure for parameter determination. The primary aim of the present manuscript is the application of the parameter estimation procedure to the Borden aquifer, an aquifer designated as an experimental site, where extensive field measurements have been carried out. Estimates of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity for the Borden aquifer, derived from the maximum likelihood algorithm, have been compared with estimates obtained by “traditional” procedures. The paper also presents the simulated solution of the governing differential equation in the one dimensional problem applied to the Borden aquifer.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544060
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Technical reports (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 280-294 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543136
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Drought monitoring (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 261-266 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Drought ; drought indices
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Drought detection, monitoring and indices are closely related to its definition. The specific definition chosen for a particular drought analysis will affect the procedures one uses in drought detection and monitoring. The traditional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been proven to be ineffective in regions of predominantly irrigated agriculture. The recently developed ALERT (Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time) system is proposed for use in monitoring the spatial and temporal variations of drought in real time. The ALERT system uses standardized instruments, radio frequencies, software and hardware. It was originally developed as a flash flood waming system by local flood control districts and the National Weather Service. However, now it has expanded to over 100 other uses in the areas of natural and man-made disaster detection and warning. The successful ALERT system indicates the need for the continued development of a national drought monitoring index that is applicable to a wide range of climate, hydrologic and water resource environments.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543134
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An exact solution of solute transport by one-dimensional random velocity fields (1991)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 45-54 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Solute transport ; random velocity ; Lagrangian description ; travel time ; nonlinear effects
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The problem of one-dimensional transport of passive solute by a random steady velocity field is investigated. This problem is representative of solute movement in porous media, for example, in vertical flow through a horizontally stratified formation of variable porosity with a constant flux at the soil surface. Relating moments of particle travel time and displacement, exact expressions for the advection and dispersion coefficients in the Focker-Planck equation are compared with the perturbation results for large distances. The first- and second-order approximations for the dispersion coefficient are robust for a lognormal velocity field. The mean Lagrangian velocity is the harmonic mean of the Eulerian velocity for large distances. This is an artifact of one-dimensional flow where the continuity equation provides for a divergence free fluid flux, rather than a divergence free fluid velocity.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544177
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