ALBERT

Notes: The calculation of purchasing power parities and quantity comparisons for a given year provides interesting information about the relative importance of countries. However, it is necessary to make these estimates annually in order to enable users to apply these parities for international comparison of annual data expressed in national currency. The paper deals with the problems related to merging spatial comparisons and temporal volume and price movements for the countries of the European Community. For these countries full information was collected in 1975 and in 1980, whereas in the intermediate years some price data were collected and price indices at a detailed level have also been collected. First the theoretical problems of consistency between the spatial results and temporal indices are discussed. Because no immediate consistency can be obtained, several methods are proposed to achieve consistency, by estimating one unique set of spatial and temporal indices. The available information for the period 1975-80 has been used in order to test the numerical differences between two sets of parities and price indices over time. Besides theoretical reasons for inconsistency, it is also necessary to take into account errors in the price observations or in the price indices. The results presented in the paper should be considered as provisional and further work will be undertaken to obtain better insights into the inconsistency between these sets of data.

Notes: To know the size and development of the hidden or underground economy is important for policy making, mainly because the measures undertaken may be misdirected if they are based on biased official statistics. The hidden economy can be measured by considering indicators. The direct methods are based on voluntary surveys and on tax auditing and other compliance methods. The indirect estimation methods rely on the identification of residuals with respect to income and expenditures, as well as in the labor and money markets. The strengths and weaknesses of each of these measurement approaches are discussed and the resulting estimates of the size of the hidden economy are compared. A different approach to measurement is to look at the determinants leading to the existence and growth of the hidden economy. Finally, the method of “unobserved variables” allows the combination of the two approaches by simultaneously considering the determinants and indicators of the under- ground economy. The results show a considerable range of sizes for a given country and year. Though there is a broad range of size estimates, there is general agreement that the hidden economy's size has been growing for all countries over recent decades. Further progress in quantitative knowledge about the hidden economy requires the development of a theoretical model which analyses the interdependencies between the official private sector, the hidden economy, and the public sector.

Notes: The formidable expansion in the scope of the United Nations International Comparison Project has brought into evidence limitations of the methodology used in the first three phases. The author considers that there are two indispensable conditions needed to give renewed impetus to the ICP: (a) the objectives must be redefined, and (b) the methodology must be built on an entirely new basis. He considers the broad lines of such an evolution to be the following.(a) The objective of volume comparison must be kept distinct from that of purchasing power comparison, given that both the basic material and the formulae to be used at the aggregate level differ in the two cases.(b) At the basic heading level, it is proposed, for both volume and purchasing power comparisons, to replace the multilateral approach by a “minimum scale” binary and unilateral approach, and to use the EKS method. This will make possible an improvement in the accuracy of the estimates, a reduction in the overall costs, and a drastic reduction in execution time. What is more, it would be possible to regionalize the worldwide comparison, in the sense that the results of the basic heading comparisons already obtained at the regional level for regional purposes can be used as an input in the framework of the worldwide comparison. At the aggregate level, in the framework of volume comparison, it is proposed that a constant price procedure in the spatial sense should continue to be used. It is, however, proposed that the prices of the set of countries (GK) be replaced by a structure of common “equi-distant” prices (G). This would permit the elimination of the significant systematic distortions observed in the comparison between rich and poor countries in the first three phases of ICP. What is more, this gives maximum stability to results obtained for the same countries at different geographical levels. By using a set of common “equi-distant” quantities, the same advantage can be obtained in the purchasing power comparison.

Notes: This paper explores the choices and potential biases involved in valuing one type of government expenditure, medical transfers, and in estimating its antipoverty impact. Three methodological approaches–(a measure of) government costs, (a measure of) cash-equivalent values and (a measure of) funds released–are contrasted both in concept and in practice. We assign benefits to individuals after assuming that Medicare and Medicaid provide insurance to all those who are eligible. The resulting estimates for 1968 and 1974 illustrate the efficacy of these medical transfers in reducing the number of persons in poverty. Two recent studies, one by the Congressional Budget Office, and the other by Morton Paglin, further highlight the importance of medical transfers for estimating poverty, despite the fact that we do not wholly agree with the methodologies which they employ. Our results indicate that in the aggregate, while medical care transfers have a substantial impact on poverty, the choice of a specific estimation approach has little effect on poverty estimates. However, for the elderly and possibly also for other groups (e.g. the rural poor), choice of estimation technique is quite crucial for estimating the extent of poverty.

Notes: In studies of income distribution household income is the common measure of household welfare, although household per capita income is better since it automatically “corrects” for household size. Perhaps the continued use of the former is a consequence of the belief that in practice the two give very similar results. This paper shows that in many cases those results differ substantially. Policy prescription based on household income rather than household per capita income can be very defective. The paper compares results according to the two income concepts for Malaysian data. U.S. data are then used in a comparison over time.The disparity between the two Malaysian distributions is illustrated by their cross tabulation. A quarter of the households in the lowest forty percent of the household income distribution is in the upper three quintiles of household per capita income; and 10 percent of the same lowest forty are in the highest two quintiles of the second distribution. The paper also shows that the distribution of benefits from public education-measured as the public costs of school years—is very inegalitarian if household income is used. The reverse occurs if household per capita income is used. Similar reversals occur in comparisons involving partitions by occupation and sex of head of household. Women-headed households, for example, have sub-mean household incomes but their household income per capita equals the mean. The paper also examines the differences in the age-income profiles of the two distributions. It then considers whether the much discussed secular stagnation in U.S. measures of inequality is changed if household income per capita is used rather than the usual household income measure. Use of the per capita concept results in a slight decrease in U.S. inequality between 1947 and 1972. Appendix 2 explores how long term growth in per capita incomes and the associated changes in the size composition of households may affect measurements of inequality.

Notes: Provision of “market goods” follows the decision rules of traditional microeconomics; pricing and resource allocation for such goods tend towards Pareto optimality. The provision of “collective goods,” by contrast, depends on political (or quasi-political) collective decision processes; beneficiaries often receive a share of collective goods free of charge or well below average or marginal (private or social) costs. No inherent tendency towards optimality may be presumed and separate analysis of collective goods becomes an essential part of national goals accounting.The national-income-accounts (NIA) distinction between personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and government purchases of goods and services corresponds roughly to a division between market goods bought by the consumer and a major category of “collective goods” (i.e. “public goods” provided by government). However, a significant proportion of PCE represents “collective goods” paid for by government, business, or nonprofit organizations and provided on behalf of the consumer, whereas a part of NIA government purchases represents services paid for by the consumer (i.e. “market goods”).This article develops operationally meaningful distinctions among “market goods,”“collective goods,” and “tied aid” (a mixed category with market-good and collective-good characteristics). These distinctions are determined by the nature of the decision processes–rather than by the characteristics of the beneficiary or the supplier. This classification is related to the national income accounts and major discrepancies are pinpointed. The blurring of the distinction among market goods, collective goods and tied aid is found to be most consequential in the NIA treatment of “education” and “medical care” services. NIA data for these two services are restructured for national goals accounting purposes in order to illustrate both the quantitative importance and the empirical feasibility of classifying benefits by their respective decision processes.

Notes: Recently there has been discussion concerning the renewal of the volume measurements of public sector services. This renewal has been proposed e.g. in the recent United Nations Draft Manual on Public Sector Statistics. In the present paper we discuss some theoretical and practical problems connected with this renewal. According to some preliminary calculations concerning the Finnish educational sector, the new methodology might lead to a considerable revision of figures of output and labour productivity in the public sector. The revisions are of such a quantity that they might cause significant changes in the measurement of the volume of the total gross domestic product. This is a fact which may still require reflection before the new methodology is generally introduced, even though the revisions as such may be highly desirable from several aspects.

Notes: Structural relationships estimated from data obtained in a benchmark study of the expenditures and prices of 16 countries are used to develop a table of real gross domestic product and shares of gross domestic product devoted to private and public consumption and investment for each of over 100 countries in the years 1950 and 1960 through 1977. Price level estimates for total product and the three components are also provided.

Notes: Taxes as well as government expenditures tend to transform income distribution; the higher they are in relation to GDP, the higher their potential influence appears. It is easier to trace the incidence of taxes than that of expenditures and studies of effects of expenditures on income distribution are not frequent. Changes of fiscal legislation and deficiencies in reporting systems and statistics frequently found in developing countries complicate the task still further.An investigation of this type in a developing country has to face a poorly developed data base and take advantage of different and dispersed sources of information.This paper presents the methodology used for estimating the influence of government expenditures a n income distribution in the case of Venezuela. Although the incidence of fiscal activities on income distribution in Venezuela might not necessarily be the same as in other countries, Venezuelan sources of information are not very different from those existing in other countries of similar level of economic and statistical development and procedures used could appropriately be adapted to other countries.

Notes: A number of rather traditional problems relating to the estimation of the national accounts have been raised in the recent literature. This paper examines five of these problems from the point of view of a government statistician working within certain time and resource constraints. Credibility, comprehensibility, theoretical validity, cost and analytical usefulness are the criteria which should aid in deciding how to treat such matters as the extension of the boundaries of economic production, proposed changes in the categorization of both final and intermediate expenses, the treatment of “total” welfare and estimation relating to the so-called underground economy.

Notes: The question addressed in this paper is: Why can't we have a good measuring rod of the economic and social performance of our society? The answers are basically positive but lie mostly in the direction of (1) avoiding simplistic solutions such as turning the national income accounts into a measure of social welfare and (2) providing the elements of an information strategy to obtain such a measure or more accurately such a set of measures.The proposed information strategy highlights five activities: (1) the presentation and analysis of welfare outcomes, an activity which is analogous to but broader than “social indicators”; (2) social accounting which includes economic accounting, demographic accounting, and time-use accounting; (3) model building and operation which, unlike accounting, are concerned with behavioral or causal relationships used to explain and project welfare outcomes; (4) hypothesis testing to develop new insights into economic and social behavior; and finally (5) the building and maintenance of a data base required for carrying on the aforementioned four activities.

Notes: The importance of non-personal shareholders in Malaysian corporations is widely acknowledged. However, up till now, very little has been known about the nature of these shareowners, their manner of equity ownership (especially their size of holdings hence degree of share concentration), their country of incorporation and how they themselves are controlled i.e. whether Malaysian or foreign. This paper attempts to fill this gap with data compiled from official shareholders' lists of the largest ninety-eight Malaysian incorporated companies engaged in manufacturing, for a point in time 1975–75, which is towards the end of the Second Malaysia Plan period. Some of the empirical findings are then compared with those of a few selected countries.

Notes: Book review in this article:JAMES MEADE: Stagflation Vol 1: Wage Fixing. George Allen & Unwin LA.

Notes: At the first residential conference of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which was held at St. Edmund Hall, Oxford, in September 1983, Mr Stewart Bates, QC, spoke on the implications of the decision of the House of Lords in the case of W. T. Ramsay Ltd v CIR. A report of those proceedings was held over until the decision of the House of Lords in the case of Furniss, v Dawson was known. The following report is based upon Mr Bates' address and the comments of Mr Stephen Oliver, QC, Mr John Avery Jones and Mr Adrian Shipwright who spoke at a lunchtime seminar convened by the IFS on 9 March 1984 to consider the decision in Furniss v Dawson. This report does not reflect the opinions of the IFS, which has no corporate views.

Notes: The growth of the public sector in the post-war period and the consequences of this development for economic growth is a strongly disputed subject of economic theory and policy. In this paper the development trends of state activities in the case of the Federal Republic of Germany are presented. The structure of public expenditures as well as the tax structure are taken into consideration and possible impacts on real economic growth are analysed. The negative correlations between some kinds of public expenditures (or taxes) and the growth rate of real GNP should not be taken in proof of the growth-retarding effects which might ensue from increasing state activities. It seems to be more likely that state activities have induced shifts of resources from the formal into the informal economy. Politicians should be aware that some measures of economic policy conventionally proposed will strengthen the movement into the informal economy, thus intensifying the current problems within the public budgets as well as in the social security system.

Notes: This paper uses five valuation methods to derive aggregate and per person estimates of the value of household work in the United States. Two general questions are posed: (1) what is the relationship between the aggregate estimates and the valuation method used, and (2) how do per person estimates vary by sex and earnings?The main observations of the paper are as follows: First, the aggregate value of household work is sizable regardless of the valuation method used. Second, aggregate estimates are extremely sensitive to the method of valuation. For example, the highest estimate is $475 billion greater than the lowest estimate. Third, contrary to earlier findings, opportunity cost valuation methods generally produce significantly higher estimates than market cost valuation methods. Fourth, per person estimates vary significantly by sex and level of earnings across valuation methods. Generally, market cost estimates.

Notes: Income generating functions are statistical tools used to explain income inequality and other economic outcomes and behavior. These functions are often associated with a strict human capital framework, but they need not be. Instead, they may be viewed as a reduced form equation summarizing the relationship between income and various personal and locational characteristics. Following this latter interpretation, we develop the regression and analysis of variance approaches to income generating functions and estimate them empirically using micro-economic data from one low income country, Colombia. Proceeding to increasingly parsimonious specifications of income generating functions, insights are gained into the structure of incomes in Colombia.

Notes: This paper deals with the influence of differing methods of deflation on the international terms of trade of the Federal Republic of Germany. The question to be discussed is what indices seem best suited for the deflation of exports and imports in national accounts. It will be shown that the use of alternative price indices for deflating exports and imports leads to considerable differences of the results at constant prices and so in terms of trade. In addition, terms of trade are presented by groups of countries.

Notes: Income inequality is examined using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a consistent decomposition analysis. I only use inequality measures that satisfy the Principle of Transfers, have the property that a ceteris paribus increase in inequality within any subgroup increases overall inequality, and are independent of the scale of income and population. Decompositions are carried out by family size and by age of head for several definitions of income and income recipient. Whilst changing the time unit over which income is measured has a substantial impact on inequality, the effect of removing the between-age-group component of inequality is relatively slight.

Notes: This paper discusses Austria's experiences in connection with the 1980 round of the UN International Comparison Project, in which comparisons were first made within regions and the regions then linked. Austria played a dual role, as (a) the linking country between Group I (the European Community) and Group II (selected middle and eastern European countries), and (b) the base country for Group II. The paper consists of two principal parts. The first part reports, at the 3-digit commodity level, on the success achieved in finding comparable items, both within Group II and between Austria and Group I. The second part discusses a number of methodological problems that were encountered in carrying out the comparison. Chief among these was the treatment of social services that are marketed in some countries and provided free of charge or at nominal prices in others. Other questions touched upon include the treatment of output for own consumption, rents, drugs and medicines, and tourist expenditures.

Notes: Lack of a conceptual basis for measuring human capital investment in health has hampered efforts to expand national accounting systems to include human capital investment. This paper presents a conceptual basis for developing estimates of this health investment, an estimation methodology consistent with the conceptual basis, and preliminary estimates for the United States for 1952-78.While much work remains to be done before comprehensive estimates of investment in health are achieved, it is clear that previous estimates based on answers to the question, “What improves health?” have included some inappropriate expenditures while excluding others that should be included.The conceptual basis presented here leads to a methodology for separating health care costs (not the costs of illness) into maintenance and gross investment. Gross investment can be further separated into net investment and the sum of damages and depreciation but empirical implementation of this step is not attempted here.

Notes: This paper describes the construction of an accounting matrix for the world economy in 1977, cast along similar lines to SNA National Accounts, but one in which trade flows replace inter-industry flows as intermediate demand. The matrix distinguishes ten regions. Institutional accounts are presented for three of these, the European Community, North America and Japan. This matrix is used to provide the basis of a linear model in which average propensities to import and consume are replaced by estimated marginal propensities. Use is made of standard estimates of the income effects of terms of trade changes in order to distinguish substitution from income effects in the model, and a means is suggested for separating the full as well as the impact effects of a terms of trade change into income and substitution effects. The estimated import equations are used to derive estimates of regional growth rates compatible with external balance in each region. Multiplier matrices are calculated from the model showing regional interdependence of the world economy reflecting the pattern of trade which is identified in the marginal propensities to import.The effects of various aid policies are calculated using the model. It is shown that the cost of aid to any region is radically altered by taking into account the feedback effects of changes in demand. A policy of tied aid pursued by EEC, North America and Japan can actually lead to an improvement in Japan's balance of payments position. Finally the effects of movements in relative prices are illustrated by means of two examples.

Notes: In this paper a definition of poverty in terms of welfare is given. A method is developed to derive poverty lines from an individual welfare function of income. The model is extended to analyse the effect of several socio-economic characteristics on the level of the poverty line. An empirical application of the method is given based on data from a survey in eight European countries in 1979. Differences in the poverty lines both between countries and between socio-economic groups within each country are considered. Finally the number of people below these poverty lines is estimated for all countries in the group.

Notes: The Kingdom of Nepal is one of the least developed and least known countries. In order to understand the sometimes non-conventional estimating procedure used, a background section is included, describing the physical, socio-economic and institutional framework. In the second part of the paper some illustrative examples of the approaches used are given, the full description being published in four volumes, National Accounts of Nepal, National Planning Commission, Kathmandu. The last part of the paper considers the usefulness of national accounts based upon the market economy, and in general, the problem of applicability of international concepts to a developing country. What is the significance of international concepts to a developing country? What is the significance of national value aggregates in a country in which the unit of national currency does not serve as a nation-wide standard of value? Can a common denominator be found if the scale of values and the whole outlook of different groups are so different? What do people value, and does the rural population in localized economies put a monetary price on the value? Has the concept of labour force or employment, as used in industrial societies, any meaning in a society where all those capable, including small children, of contributing to daily survival do so? The conceptual problems have not yet been solved. National accounts are a useful first step in providing planners with symbols for telling a complex story in simple terms and as a kind of statistical reconnaissance, but as development planning is moving more and more in the direction of planning from below and into regional and rural development projects, household surveys are becoming essential planning and evaluation tools. Based upon twenty-five years of field experience, the author reflects upon problems and possible solutions, discussing managerial, training, substantive and statistical aspects.

Notes: This paper describes the composition of the public sector in the United Kingdom and traces the development and contribution to the economy of the three main sub-sectors-central government, local government and public corporations—over the past thirty years. Relevant data for output, employment, fixed capital formation and national wealth set the public sector into perspective with the economy as a whole and illustrate how its share of human and other resources has changed over the years. While all four measures show the public sector share of the total to have been around 30 percent in 1980, historically the changes have moved very differently. The slow, but fairly steady, increase in the share of employment and output contrasts with very marked changes in the other two measures. Although public sector fixed investment nearly doubled in real terms between 1950 and 1980 its share of total investment declined from 48 to 31 percent, a much smaller share being taken by dwellings, electricity supply and the railways. In terms of the share of national wealth the public sector moved from a state of indebtedness to the rest of the economy in the fifties and sixties to a position of holding nearly one third of the value of tangible and financial assets in the late seventies.A small part of the paper considers the international dimension, but because few other countries use the concept of a public sector, this section examines only the relationship between total tax revenue and GDP in a number of countries and employment in general government.The problems of determining the boundary of the public and private sectors occurs most frequently at the interface between public corporations and private enterprises; the rules for deciding classification are set out in so far as they can be specified.The last sections of the paper put the statistics into their policy context and consider the value of public sector aggregates. The conclusion is that a general case cannot be made to justify assembling public sector aggregates for all countries; the need will be determined by the economic policies being pursued in a particular country. Although the United Kingdom gives considerable prominence to a public sector financial aggregate, the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, the functions of the public corporations and the rest of the public sector are so disparate that consolidated accounts for the public sector are no longer prepared.

Notes: Has the underground economy caused the increase in United States GNP in recent years to be understated relative to earlier periods? The ratio of employment to population provides powerful evidence that it has not. This ratio’ was as high in the middle 1970s as in previous periods and in 1978–80 rose to its highest level of the postwar era, suggesting that employment growth has not been understated. Employment series based on both establishment reports and household surveys yield exceptionally high ratios in recent years. This article provides a step-by-step explanation of why employment data are pertinent to the question raised about GNP.This explanation may be summarized as follows. GNP measured as the sum of final products is not understated unless GNP measured as the sum of national income and other charges against GNP is also understated. Appreciable understatement of the growth of charges against GNP as a result of growth of the underground economy is highly unlikely in the absence of understatement of the growth of wages and salaries, because of the way the estimates are made. Understatement of the growth of wages and salaries without understatement of the growth of employment based on establishment reports is highly unlikely because of the way data are collected.The article explains briefly the relationship between income tax evasion and errors in measuring the various components of charges against GNP. It also explains how illegal activities are meant to be handled in GNP measurement.

Notes: The United Nations' newly completed study of purchasing power parities covering 34 countries varied in region, income level, and form of economic organization shows the systematic differences between the usual view of the structure of the world economy arising out of international comparisons based upon foreign exchange rate conversions and the structure one sees when actual prices are available.The real per capita GDP of developing countries is understated relative to developed countries when exchange rates are used in converting countries' national income accounts to a common currency, with the degree of understatement for any two countries being inversely related to the per capita income difference between them. The reason for this is that relative prices in the non-traded goods sector are lower relative to traded goods prices in low income countries. The systematic pattern observed in the 1975 data of the 34 countries has been extrapolated over time and space to get estimates of GDP for other years and countries.In the absence of detailed price data, the real shares of final expenditures devoted to particular components of the total can only be estimated as the proportion of own currency total expenditure devoted to the components. The observed differences in the pattern of prices of poor countries relative to rich for different components makes this clearly wrong for international comparisons, and in systematic ways. For example, (i) the relative price of services compared with commodities in poor countries is lower than in rich; so the apparent tendency of the share of services to rise as a country's income rises disappears when real quantities are considered; similarly, (ii) the relative price of capital goods is greater in poor countries compared with rich ones, so the difference in investment ratios out of GDP between rich and poor countries is understated.

Notes: The change in goods and services available in a national economy brought about by the shifting of external price relationships is referred to as the terms of trade effects. This paper reviews the various methods which have been devised since the war to define and quantify such effects on the Gross National Product. The statistical annex shows that, as far as OECD countries are concerned, the differences between the various measures are not significant. Whereas the effects from terms of trade represented, on average, less than one half of one percent of the GNP of OECD countries during the 1960's the percentage has increased substantially since 1973, due most importantly to the increase in the oil price; by 1977 (on a 1970 price basis), it had reached 5 percent of GNP in Japan and up to 6 percent in Italy. On the other hand, the extreme case of Saudi Arabia where various formulas generate effects amounting to between one half and the whole of GNP, indicates that the measurement of terms of trade effects by various methods may give different results.

Notes: The concern with income distribution has always mainly existed because of a concern with individuals' economic welfare. In recent years, the question has arisen whether the distribution of annual income—the distribution most often studied—is the best proxy for the distribution of economic welfare. Other measures, such as lifetime income, have been proposed instead.The paper starts with a discussion of how to define and measure the distribution of lifetime income. By using a simulation model, which partly consists of estimated functions and partly of tax functions taken directly from tax laws, distributions of lifetime income, variously defined, are then constructed. These distributions are compared with each other, and with distributions of annual income. The simulations indicate that the distribution of lifetime income is considerably less unequal than the distribution of annual income. Whether inheritances are included or not seems to be of no importance for the inequality of lifetime income. If, on the other hand, we include the value of leisure time in lifetime income, inequality increases by about 10–15 percent. Distributions of income after tax have Gini coefficients which are approximately 25 percent less than the Ginis for the before-tax distributions. We thus find that the picture of inequality we get is very much dependent on which income concept we use.

Notes: In this paper we deal with the question of which measures of economic well-being are adequate to identify those groups of households in the U.S. whose economic conditions justify public concern and assistance. We derive a utility based measure of economic well-being from the estimation of a complete set of consumer demand equations. The demand system is Lluch's Extended Linear Expenditure System (Lluch, 1973). Household characteristics are incorporated using the scaling method proposed by Barten (1966). Using the welfare indicator derived, we study the composition of the poorest part of the population, using data from the 1972–73 Consumer Expenditure Survey. We compare our results with those obtained using various other welfare indicators, including the official U.S. poverty line. We show that using different family composition adjustments significantly and systematically affects just who are considered to be at the bottom of the welfare distribution. We finally suggest that program designers therefore can improve their target efficiency by carefully selecting from among the acceptable indices of welfare when defining program eligibility.

Notes: This paper compares the growth accounting approaches to aggregate productivity measurement and analysis of three major researchers: E. F. Denison, D. W. Jorgenson, and J. W. Kendrick. The investigetors are compared in terms of their treatment of a number of crucial elements, including measurement of output and of capital and labor inputs (including composition or quality changes), total factor productivity growth, economies of scale, and intensity of demand (for output). Judged by the standard of the neoclassical economic theory of production-the only generally accepted basis for input aggregation-Denison departs significantly from the production theory framework in his measurement of output and capital input, Kendrick to some degree in his measure of capital input, and Jorgenson not at all. The effects of these departures are illustrated with reference to the recent productivity slowdown. The probable near-term future utility of growth accounting methods for productivity analysis is assessed, and some related econometric modeling issues are noted.

Notes: This article reviews the problems involved in updating the results of international comparisons, in terms of an analytic framework focusing upon the sources of differences between various forms of extrapolation and direct comparisons. The factors identified as important are conservation of prices of the base period and weight inconsistency. The reliability of updating is undoubtedly affected by the length of the period over which the data are extrapolated. A program of regular benchmark comparisons at approximately five-year intervals with updating for the intervening years is attractive, since it permits checking by forward and backward interpolation. Where there are large deviations, however, averaging is not an acceptable solution.

Notes: Index number accuracy is affected by formula specification and sampling error. The authors argue that an index formula should be “ideal” and “exact” (with reference to the range of economically plausible aggregator functions) to be economically justified. These indices are invariant in the homothetic case, as well as in certain non-homothetic scenarios. Empirically, based on foreign trade data for Egypt from 1885-1961, the set of economically justified indices are virtually identical, supporting the theoretical argument that “instrumental error” or “formula variance” should be a negligible factor contributing to index number error. In a discussion of sampling error, on the other hand, the authors criticize earlier work and propose an upper and lower bound. Using the same data, these limits imply that sampling error may be a serious problem for many indices.

Notes: In this article an attempt is made to generate internationally comparable income distribution data for the Federal Republic of Germany (1974), Mexico (1968) and the United Kingdom (1979). To that end, the same income concept and income unit were adopted for each country, i.e. respectively household available income and the household. Moreover, incomes from various sources were adjusted for inconsistency with National Accounts according to Altimir's methodology. The paper finds that the distribution of persons by household income per equivalent unit is probably the best way of looking at the distribution of economic welfare. It further demonstrates that the distribution of persons by household available income per capita is much closer to this ‘ideal’ distribution than the distribution of households by household available income. Finally, the paper discusses some of the problems arising from the fact that one normally works with grouped data. It is found that in the case of the three countries under study, grouping is likely to have had only a small impact on the results.

Notes: This paper discusses the history of the French development of satellite accounts during the late 1960s and 1970s, noting the circumstances that led to the initiation of work in this area and describing the types of problem encountered. It then goes on to draw, on the basis of the French experiment, more general conclusions and to present a proposed accounting framework. The final section considers the concept of social expenditure, but concludes that, at least for the present, it is not possible to construct a useful global concept.

Notes: The economy of Liberia is one in which, in spite of past satisfactory growth performance, a high level of income inequality persists. In 1977, for instance, a mere 2 percent of the people accounted for some 33 percent of nation-wide wage income. These people live disproportionately in Montserrado County in which the capital city is located. While each of the other counties are largely rural and poor, each has far lower intra-county inequality than wealthy Montserrado.Intersectoral location of the income-earner, average income levels and the extent of access to human capital formation opportunities are some characteristics of the economy that have been found to explain significant portions of intercounty variations in the levels of household income concentration. Income inequality is reduced with increases in the extent of agricultural activity as the share of the top income group falls and that of the bottom group rises. The reverse happens with growing urban-area activity. Higher income concentration occurs with rising per capita incomes as the top group's income share rises and the bottom income group's share falls. While this appears to be an instance of the Kuznet U-shaped hypothesis, here there are no definite signs of a possible reversal any time soon. The levels of access to educational facilities move inversely with the level of inequality, with expanding elementary facilities benefiting the poorer people at the expense of the wealthy while the reverse happens in the case of expanding secondary educational facilities.

Notes: This article describes what happens to income distribution during intensive changes in gross domestic product due to external market conditions. It deals specifically with an open market petroleum-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago, and reviews changes in national product and income levels and the income distribution pattern over the twenty year period 1957–76.The paper argues that during the period characterized by subperiods of steady growth and rapid growth in GDP (the latter associated with the petroleum price rise), income inequality increased between 1957 and 1972 and then decreased in the post petroleum-price-rise period of rapid growth 1973–76. While the effect of intensive changes in national product did trickle down to the lower income groups, income inequality in 1975–76 was greater than that existing in 1957–58. An examination of the spatial, occupational and temporal aspect of the distribution pattern points towards the elimination of structural dualism in the economy as the surest path towards greater income equality in Trinidad and Tobago.

Notes: The debate on how to deal with changes of relative prices in national accounts has, so far, remained inconclusive, especially with regard to the question of how to measure gains from changes of terms of trade. Keeping the experiences of the 1970s in mind (i.e. substantial changes of relative prices sparked off by increased oil prices), this state of affairs is not considered tenable.On this background, the paper takes up the old debate on how to deflate figures of domestic product, total as well as by industries. It tries to argue that deflated figures should be presented not only as real product figures by industries (using the double deflation method), but also as real income figures, obtained by deflating the current-prices figures of a certain year by the same general price index. When this is done according to procedures spelled out in detail, gains/losses from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade will show up as an integral part of the framework.In the paper, special attention is given to the concept of industry terms of trade. On the basis of simplifying assumptions (which are, however, relaxed in the final part of the paper), it is shown how the ratio of real income divided by real product of a certain industry will be proportionate to the terms of trade of the industry concerned, when the latter concept is defined in the appropriate way. Furthermore, the sum of the industry gains/losses from changes of their terms of trade will be equal to the gain/loss of the economy taken as a whole from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade.

Notes: In this paper, I investigate the validity of the Modigliani-Brumberg (M-B) model as an explanation of the variation of wealth holdings among households. The model as such, even with the inclusion of estimates of household lifetime earnings, explains only a minute portion of the variation in household wealth. Indeed, for certain groups such as non-white, rural residents, and the low educated, the coefficients of the regression model are insignificant. Moreover, when the top wealth holders are removed from the sample and when non-cash financial and business assets are eliminated from the household portfolios, the explanatory power of the M-B model increases markedly. Essentially, the validity of life-cycle wealth accumulation models must be restricted to the white, urban, educated middle classes and their accumulation of housing, durables, and cash. The rich have very different motives for saving and very different sources of saving, while the poor do not earn sufficient income over their lifetime to accumulate any non-negligible wealth.

Notes: The United Nations (SNA) and the Canadian (CSNA) Systems of National Accounts treat interest as a factor return to capital. The difficulties arising from the use of this concept cast doubt upon the basic premise. For example if the usual method of measuring value added by the summation of primary inputs is applied to industries mainly engaged in the lending of money, the results show negative production. This has led to the necessity of imputing bank interest in order to avoid negative income originating in the banking industry. Arguments are being put forward to extend this practice to certain other financial non-bank areas as well to offset the negative product emerging with increasing frequency as a result of higher levels of interest transactions.The proposed alternative is based on the contention that interest paid and received for the borrowing and lending of money should be treated in the same manner as the purchase and sale of other services. For the production accounts, for example, this would mean that interest paid by business would be treated as an intermediate expense of the paying industry and as revenue of the receiving industry. The adoption of this approach would therefore eliminate the need for the imputation of banking services and clear up the ambiguities encountered in treating interest on the public and consumer debt, issues which are also not unrelated to the present treatment of interest.

Notes: The present investigation is the first attempt to calculate gross capital stocks for 19 industries which together cover the whole Austrian economy. A production-oriented concept of capital formed the basis of the investigation; the estimation procedure follows that of C. Almon et al. In contrast to the traditional perpetual-inventory methods, Almon's modified estimation technique combines the advantages of differentiated cumulation containing a logistical retention function with relatively moderate requirements with respect to investment data. A thorough description of this estimation technique is given in the third section of the paper, combined with a number of comparative model calculations. These demonstrate very clearly that capital stock figures calculated according to the Almon method rarely deviate from those found with the help of the traditional inventory method, which requires considerably more information and uses more complicated calculation procedures. Finally, the sectorally disaggregated capital stock estimates calculated according to the Almon method are presented with some interpretative remarks.

Notes: This paper provides a description of the annual Input-Output Tables for Canada. It describes the accounting framework and notes its close affinity to the one described in the United Nations report, A System of National Accounts. It demonstrates the ready derivation of GDP and Expenditure on GDP, both in current and constant prices, from the Input-Output Accounts as well as their relationship to the other subsystems of the Canadian System of National Accounts, particularly the Income and Expenditure Accounts and Real Domestic Product by Industry. Compatibility of basic accounting records of the transactors with the rectangular (commodity-industry) format of the Canadian tables is described. The need to have a consistent commodity classification and to develop a consistent valuation of all transactors in the economy is emphasized. The particular formulation of the Input-Output Impact tables is noted. The problem of deflating trade margins and the resolution of this problem is described. A strong plea is made for the economics profession to pay more attention to the problem of aggregation; all economic analysis is approached with blinkers but the aggregation problem isn't even recognized as a blind spot in most analyses.

Notes: Cooperation between the Austrian and Hungarian central statistical offices in the field of industrial productivity has a history of two decades. The first comparison, carried out in 1965, was partly experimental in objective and nature. The second full scale survey took place a decade later in 1975. This was followed by a further study of about two years duration of the level of productivity and the factors influencing it in three sectors: food, metallurgy and engineering. For this study the three sectors were broken down into 31 sub-branches and nearly 400 product groups. An important and labour-intensive element of the comparisons was harmonization of the sector and product classification system; UN recommendations were increasingly helpful for this work, and relying upon them will be expedient also in the future.In the decade under review the productivity advantage of Austrian industry increased, from about 40 percent in 1965 to an average 75 percent in 1975. The dispersion of sectoral productivity indices around the average value was significant in both years.The similarity of the 1965 and 1975 comparisons offered an exceptional opportunity to examine the reliability of extrapolation. The investigations unambiguously demonstrated that extrapolation did not give reliable results for a period as long as ten years, primarily because of structural changes in production and changes in price weights.The most important conclusion to be drawn from the investigation of the three selected branches is its extraordinary usefulness from the economic, political and methodological points of view. A further important conclusion is that the method of comparison must be selected in the light of an extensive consideration of the output and technological structure of the branches.

Notes: This paper presents an analysis of the distributive impact of government expenditures in the United States. The analysis uses a household-level microdata file drawn from the 1970 U.S. Census of Population, with additional income and tax variables drawn from the Internal Revenue Service 1969—70 Tax File.The results are presented at both federal and local levels and include analyses of the distribution of individual benefits, as well as of overall taxes and net benefits. Since a microdata file was used, distributional effects are examined with respect not only to the “traditional” variables of income class and household size, but also with regard to the number of earners in the household and the sex and race of the household head.In a further paper in a subsequent issue of this review we will present the results of a similar analysis for the United Kingdom, and compare the results for the two countries.

Notes: In an important recent book dealing with the measurement of income inequality with particular reference to poverty,1 Prof. N. Kakwani derives several poverty indices, investigates the effect of negative income tax schemes with the help of those indices and gives a numerical illustration based on Malaysian data.The aim of this note is to point out some logical flaws in his argument. Some of the ideas expressed in the part of his book we are concerned with have been disseminated for some time now2 and referred to in subsequent literature;3 yet their shortcomings do not seem to have attracted anyone's attention. The introductory section gives a concise presentation of the relevant part of Kakwani's contribution. The next two sections deal with some problems with his approach.

Notes: The conceptual framework of the system specifies that societal resources are limited by two basic factors: the amount of available human time, and the stock of wealth inherited from the past. Wealth is defined very broadly to cover not only the conventional tangible capital assets familiar to economists, but also intangible human and other capital assets, stocks of organizational capital reflected by networks of social support systems (the family, the neighbourhood), stocks of environmental assets (the sun and air), and stocks of socio-political assets (security, freedom of choice). Human time covers market work, household production, leisure, and biological maintenance.Human time and capital stocks are used within households to produce a variety of tangible and intangible outputs, and these outputs in turn are used to produce a variety of satisfactions (utilities) or to augment stocks of capital, or both.The basic sources of well-being in the system are ultimately of two types: well-being is produced as a consequence of the intrinsic benefits from all activities engaged in by individuals, which is to say that people have preferences over the way they spend their time; secondly, people derive utilities from the existence of various stocks or states of society, and these satisfactions are independent of the way in which time is used. The satisfactions associated with flows of goods are subsumed by satisfactions derived from activities associated with those goods.The system contains a set of linkages among the various parts:inputs of goods and time are used to produce tangible household output, using the familiar notions of household production functions and constrained optimization; tangible household products, which are intermediate in the system, are used in conjunction with human time to produce direct satisfactions or to augment household capital stocks; both household (micro) and societal (macro) capital stocks are linked directly to psychological well-being; household activities are linked directly to flows of satisfactions, termed process benefits in the system; household preferences and values relating to policy variables are linked to public policies of various sorts, and policies modify the constraints and opportunities relevant for household decisions.The system also has dynamic linkages. Modifications of household or public stocks produce impacts on future flows of well-being; satisfactions from activities may adapt to the existence of constraints, hence changes in constraints can modify preferences and subsequently modify activities; and household behavior has a life-cycle dimension which is inherently dynamic.

Notes: Two ways of estimating the value of housework are currently used. One is the opportunity cost approach, which sets the value of work done at home equal to the income the person could earn in the labor market. The other is the market cost approach, which uses the cost of hiring someone to do the housework to determine its value. In this study we use data on earnings of female clerical workers with various patterns of labor force participation to obtain estimates of the opportunity cost of hometime for such women. We find that potential market earnings do not provide an acceptable estimate of the value of housework, and suggest that using the wages of general household workers is a better approach.