ALBERT

Notes: The central concern of this paper is with the treatment of human resources in dynamic applications of capital and growth accounting. Despite many advances, national accounting conventions still give biased profiles of the economy, but the time is ripe for experimentation with measures that can correct those biases and provide a more adequate base for assessment of long-term economic performance and prospects.In the first section, the logic and feasibility of forward and backward measures of formation of human capital in the simplest case (of full-time schooling) is examined in parallel with physical capital. In a dynamic economy, which is rarely if ever in equilibrium, these approaches complement each other; they are poor substitutes. In section two a number of conceptual and measurement issues are considered with particular reference to human-capital investment periods and the treatment of appreciation, depreciation and obsolescence of human versus physical capital. Here special attention is given to the extended periods of investments in human resources, which overlap with realization of returns, and to the processes and agencies through which postschool investments are made. The last section presents a brief statement concerning asymmetries in disequilibrium biases with respect to the formation of human relative to physical capital. Drawing upon section 1 with regard to forward and backward measures and section 2 with regard to the critical importance of postschool learning, new possibilities in contributions of national accounting to a dynamic analysis of economic development are suggested.

Notes: After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling.To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.

Notes: This paper considers the properties of the Divisia, or chain-link, index, as they relate to the argument that this is the most appropriate index for use in studying the sources of economic growth. The great advantage of the Divisia index is alleged to be its “accuracy”, that is, its capacity to combine time series of prices and quantities to give a true reflection of the height of a utility or production function over time. The paper shows that there are circumstances where the confidence in the accuracy of the Divisia index is justified, but that the conditions required are very restrictive and typically do not obtain in the contexts where the Divisia index is used. Misplaced confidence in the Divisia index has led to errors of interpretation that might otherwise have been avoided, and has given rise to a distorted view of the process of economic growth.

Notes: This essay focuses on the problems of estimating the share of America's personal wealth in the hands of affluent individuals by a technique known as the estate multiplier method. Rather than exploring these problems in an empirical vacuum, we first present some results from the most recent estimates of the distribution of U.S. personal wealth.1 The estimates—for the year 1969—are then used as a basis for gauging the sensitivity of estate multiplier estimates to variations in approach.Section I presents new empirical findings dealing with the asset holdings of top wealth-holders and the super rich, and with the shares of specific assets owned by them. Also presented is information about the sex and marital status of the super rich.Section II discusses various technical aspects of the estate multiplier as applied to federal estate tax returns. The main concern is with the weighting process, but attention is paid to the fact that estate tax returns filed in a given year are not for decedents who died in that year or any single year, and to the problems of adjusting the face value of life insurance to cash surrender value.

Notes: The only periodic data available in Canada on the asset holdings and net worth of the household sector are data collected through a series of household surveys originally initiated in 1954. Some limited data on the holdings of financial claims by the personal and unincorporated business sector are available from flow of funds work. Data are unavailable for estimation from estate tax returns.The scope of the surveys has been expanded substantially so that the most recent survey obtained a very comprehensive list of asset holdings. The experience with Canadian surveys has been similar to that of other countries; surveys appear to underestimate asset holdings although the estimates are more reliable for widely held assets than for assets with a very skewed distribution. Nevertheless, the surveys appear to trace the accumulated distribution of personal savings over time to a considerable degree and provide useful cross-sectional trend data.Canadian data show that wealth is more unequally distributed among family units than is income although wealth appears to be more equally distributed between income groups than is income. Wealth is also very unequally distributed within the same income group. Over time, there appears to have been some movement towards a more equal distribution of asset holdings between income groups.

Notes: 〈blockFixed type="quotation"〉Man may work from sun to sun, But woman's work is never done. Anon.It has become almost a cliché that measured growth in the U.S. is being overstated. The classic on the subject is by Mishan [5], who argues persuasively that the (uncounted) externalities from production in industrialized economies are overtaking the production which these economies are counting. But externalities are not the only problems in measuring economic activity and economic growth. Two other problems of equal importance, but more amenable to measurement, are the distinction between final and intermediate production, and the quantification of nonmarket productive behavior. In this paper, we concentrate on one aspect of the measurement of nonmarket behavior—the value of production at home by housewives./〉Specifically, we will present estimates of the value of home based nonmarket production by housewives. These estimates will then be used to supplement various national product aggregates in order to calculate more accurate growth rates for the U.S. economy. We find that the value of nonmarket production by married women during the 1960's has averaged approximately thirty percent of the GNP and close to 40 percent of the national income. The inclusion of the nonmarket work of housewives in GNP would reduce the measured rate of growth of real GNP per potential worker by about ten percent, the exact amount depending on how the value of nonmarket work is estimated. Our estimates indicate a reduction in the absolute rate of growth of almost 0.25 percent.

Notes: The United Nations' newly completed study of purchasing power parities covering 34 countries varied in region, income level, and form of economic organization shows the systematic differences between the usual view of the structure of the world economy arising out of international comparisons based upon foreign exchange rate conversions and the structure one sees when actual prices are available.The real per capita GDP of developing countries is understated relative to developed countries when exchange rates are used in converting countries' national income accounts to a common currency, with the degree of understatement for any two countries being inversely related to the per capita income difference between them. The reason for this is that relative prices in the non-traded goods sector are lower relative to traded goods prices in low income countries. The systematic pattern observed in the 1975 data of the 34 countries has been extrapolated over time and space to get estimates of GDP for other years and countries.In the absence of detailed price data, the real shares of final expenditures devoted to particular components of the total can only be estimated as the proportion of own currency total expenditure devoted to the components. The observed differences in the pattern of prices of poor countries relative to rich for different components makes this clearly wrong for international comparisons, and in systematic ways. For example, (i) the relative price of services compared with commodities in poor countries is lower than in rich; so the apparent tendency of the share of services to rise as a country's income rises disappears when real quantities are considered; similarly, (ii) the relative price of capital goods is greater in poor countries compared with rich ones, so the difference in investment ratios out of GDP between rich and poor countries is understated.

Notes: The change in goods and services available in a national economy brought about by the shifting of external price relationships is referred to as the terms of trade effects. This paper reviews the various methods which have been devised since the war to define and quantify such effects on the Gross National Product. The statistical annex shows that, as far as OECD countries are concerned, the differences between the various measures are not significant. Whereas the effects from terms of trade represented, on average, less than one half of one percent of the GNP of OECD countries during the 1960's the percentage has increased substantially since 1973, due most importantly to the increase in the oil price; by 1977 (on a 1970 price basis), it had reached 5 percent of GNP in Japan and up to 6 percent in Italy. On the other hand, the extreme case of Saudi Arabia where various formulas generate effects amounting to between one half and the whole of GNP, indicates that the measurement of terms of trade effects by various methods may give different results.

Notes: The concern with income distribution has always mainly existed because of a concern with individuals' economic welfare. In recent years, the question has arisen whether the distribution of annual income—the distribution most often studied—is the best proxy for the distribution of economic welfare. Other measures, such as lifetime income, have been proposed instead.The paper starts with a discussion of how to define and measure the distribution of lifetime income. By using a simulation model, which partly consists of estimated functions and partly of tax functions taken directly from tax laws, distributions of lifetime income, variously defined, are then constructed. These distributions are compared with each other, and with distributions of annual income. The simulations indicate that the distribution of lifetime income is considerably less unequal than the distribution of annual income. Whether inheritances are included or not seems to be of no importance for the inequality of lifetime income. If, on the other hand, we include the value of leisure time in lifetime income, inequality increases by about 10–15 percent. Distributions of income after tax have Gini coefficients which are approximately 25 percent less than the Ginis for the before-tax distributions. We thus find that the picture of inequality we get is very much dependent on which income concept we use.

Notes: Some writers have emphasised the adverse environmental and social effects of economic growth, while others have claimed that countries with higher levels of social well-being also tend to enjoy higher levels of per capita output. The aim of this study is to see what statistical light can be thrown on these issues by collating and comparing seventeen different social indicators for twenty countries in two bench-mark years, 1951 and 1969.Two methods of analysing data are employed. First, all the countries are ranked for each indicator in turn for a particular year. Each country is then given a score ranging from 1 to 20 for each indicator, and the scores aggregated over the indicators to obtain an overall ranking score for every country. Secondly, the data are subjected to a principal components analysis to examine the correlation between the indicators. The first principal component is a potential candidate for use as a social index number. Changes in these social variables are then related to the rate of economic growth, and no evidence is found of a negative correlation between economic growth and social development. On the contrary, the results suggest a positive correlation between the two, although the strength of this relationship may be diminishing. It is not claimed that the results are in any sense the most preferred test of the form of the relationship between economic growth and social welfare, which must be a matter for subjective evaluation; rather they are seen as a contribution to the body of empirical evidence on this subject.

Notes: The paper analyzes annual revisions of figures for G.N.P. and 8 of its components in 40 countries. It arrives at the conclusion that first estimates are very often significantly biased downwards, especially Private Consumption, Fixed Investment, G.D.P. and G.N.P. Also successive revisions are sometimes correlated (negatively in most cases). The distribution of revisions differ as between developed and developing countries.

Notes: This paper presents the results of applying the mortality multiplier approach to estate duty statistics in order to estimate the size distribution of personal wealth in the Republic of Ireland. It commences with an examination of the limitations of the estate duty statistics, a discussion of the problems involved in collecting the data, and a short consideration of the mortality multipliers used.Estimates are presented for the size distribution of personal wealth, and the distribution of wealth between age groups. Some comparisons are given with wealth in Northern Ireland, Great Britain and the U.S.A. Estimates of the components of personal capital were not found possible.Finally, preliminary estimates are made for the distribution of wealth among married and single persons, in order to provide the basis for an analysis of wealth possessed by wealth-owning units (defined as single males, single females and married couples). By making extreme assumptions, upper and lower limits are placed on the actual pattern of the size distribution of wealth by wealth-owning units.

Notes: The basic theme of Mr. Webster's practical and uncontentious paper is that unreliability undermines credibility. In the following comment specific issues he mentions will be considered in more detail to illustrate some of the principal general points made in his paper.

Notes: The author addresses himself first to the problem that summary measures of wage income inequality, computed for Kinshasa, the main urban area in Zaire, tend to overstate the degree of total labor income inequality among sharing units of comparable size. It is argued that this is true for two main reasons: (1) earnings from female commercial activity are not recorded in the available statistics; and (2) the 1960 UN definition of household upon which the measures of inequality are based understates the size of the actual sharing unit. Data taken from the 1967 Socio-Demographic Survey of Kinshasa and the 1970 household budget study are used to test these hypotheses regarding short-run income inequality.The policy observation is made that, while modernization of the commodity distribution system may provide a disincentive for sharing and a reduction in opportunities for female employment, investment in non-service sectors may equalize the secular income distribution for a given migration cohort. Evidence of unskilled migrants moving from service to non-service sector employment in response to increased labor demand is presented. This is accomplished by supplementing sample survey data with time series on aggregate employment by sector for Kinshasa.

Notes: The reliability of the quarterly national income and product (NIP) accounts of the United States is examined from several standpoints. First, possible sources of error in the quarterly NIP accounts are explored, the most important being the lack of appropriate data, seasonal adjustment errors, sampling errors and biases, and the nature of the U.S. statistical system. Next, four ways of assessing the reliability of the accounts are considered. The most weight is given to measures of revisions in early estimates of the quarterly NIP aggregates. Results of previous studies of revisions are reviewed, and a summary of a major study of revisions for the period 1947–71 is given. The other ways of assessing reliability which are examined are the effect of errors on economic policy making, analysis of the statistical discrepancy, and expert judgment on sources and methodology.The degree of accuracy is judged to be generally sufficient for the policy decisions for which the NIP estimates are used. The early estimates of a quarter's change in GNP almost always distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be large or small and will usually distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be larger or smaller than the preceding quarter. While the accuracy of the estimates has generally been sufficient, the accuracy for 1965 was judged insufficient by policymakers. There is some evidence that errors have been reduced over time.

Notes: Most developing countries have compiled national accounts on a regular basis only for the last few years. It has not yet been possible for them to collect many of the statistics necessary to obtain good coverage of their economic activities by methods which would generally be accepted as reliable. Consequently the checks on reliability imposed by the framework of the national accounts are often absent, and the accounts prepared contain many estimates of doubtful quality. These doubts can usually only be removed as statistics collected by better methods become available. This is proving to be a slow process, partly because of the shortage of trained statistical staff and the competing demands of social and demographic statistics and partly because of the inherent difficulties in collecting good statistics from small businesses and traditional households. The need to define traditional households as producers as well as consumers leads to our demanding extra information from this difficult sector. In addition it is often difficult for the national accounts statistician, and even more so for the user, to find out in the time available exactly how some of the statistics with which he is presented were obtained. When this cannot be done it is impossible to assess their reliability. Thus assessing the overall reliability of national accounts in developing countries for even a limited range of uses is at present largely a matter of personal judgment. The information necessary to make more objective assessments rarely exists and hence the problems which developed countries face in using such information are not yet within the experience of most developing countries.

Notes: This paper examines the wealth position of blacks relative to whites, on the basis of data in the Survey of Economic Opportunity. The analysis indicates that at the same levels of both income and wealth blacks consistently invest more in consumer durables, especially housing, than do whites. The paper then explores possible explanations for this finding, suggesting that these investment differences are not solely due to the income and wealth position of blacks, but may be due to a smaller set of investment opportunities institutionally fostered by discriminatory forces.

Notes: This paper discusses the history of the French development of satellite accounts during the late 1960s and 1970s, noting the circumstances that led to the initiation of work in this area and describing the types of problem encountered. It then goes on to draw, on the basis of the French experiment, more general conclusions and to present a proposed accounting framework. The final section considers the concept of social expenditure, but concludes that, at least for the present, it is not possible to construct a useful global concept.

Notes: The economy of Liberia is one in which, in spite of past satisfactory growth performance, a high level of income inequality persists. In 1977, for instance, a mere 2 percent of the people accounted for some 33 percent of nation-wide wage income. These people live disproportionately in Montserrado County in which the capital city is located. While each of the other counties are largely rural and poor, each has far lower intra-county inequality than wealthy Montserrado.Intersectoral location of the income-earner, average income levels and the extent of access to human capital formation opportunities are some characteristics of the economy that have been found to explain significant portions of intercounty variations in the levels of household income concentration. Income inequality is reduced with increases in the extent of agricultural activity as the share of the top income group falls and that of the bottom group rises. The reverse happens with growing urban-area activity. Higher income concentration occurs with rising per capita incomes as the top group's income share rises and the bottom income group's share falls. While this appears to be an instance of the Kuznet U-shaped hypothesis, here there are no definite signs of a possible reversal any time soon. The levels of access to educational facilities move inversely with the level of inequality, with expanding elementary facilities benefiting the poorer people at the expense of the wealthy while the reverse happens in the case of expanding secondary educational facilities.

Notes: This article describes what happens to income distribution during intensive changes in gross domestic product due to external market conditions. It deals specifically with an open market petroleum-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago, and reviews changes in national product and income levels and the income distribution pattern over the twenty year period 1957–76.The paper argues that during the period characterized by subperiods of steady growth and rapid growth in GDP (the latter associated with the petroleum price rise), income inequality increased between 1957 and 1972 and then decreased in the post petroleum-price-rise period of rapid growth 1973–76. While the effect of intensive changes in national product did trickle down to the lower income groups, income inequality in 1975–76 was greater than that existing in 1957–58. An examination of the spatial, occupational and temporal aspect of the distribution pattern points towards the elimination of structural dualism in the economy as the surest path towards greater income equality in Trinidad and Tobago.

Notes: The debate on how to deal with changes of relative prices in national accounts has, so far, remained inconclusive, especially with regard to the question of how to measure gains from changes of terms of trade. Keeping the experiences of the 1970s in mind (i.e. substantial changes of relative prices sparked off by increased oil prices), this state of affairs is not considered tenable.On this background, the paper takes up the old debate on how to deflate figures of domestic product, total as well as by industries. It tries to argue that deflated figures should be presented not only as real product figures by industries (using the double deflation method), but also as real income figures, obtained by deflating the current-prices figures of a certain year by the same general price index. When this is done according to procedures spelled out in detail, gains/losses from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade will show up as an integral part of the framework.In the paper, special attention is given to the concept of industry terms of trade. On the basis of simplifying assumptions (which are, however, relaxed in the final part of the paper), it is shown how the ratio of real income divided by real product of a certain industry will be proportionate to the terms of trade of the industry concerned, when the latter concept is defined in the appropriate way. Furthermore, the sum of the industry gains/losses from changes of their terms of trade will be equal to the gain/loss of the economy taken as a whole from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade.

Notes: In this paper, I investigate the validity of the Modigliani-Brumberg (M-B) model as an explanation of the variation of wealth holdings among households. The model as such, even with the inclusion of estimates of household lifetime earnings, explains only a minute portion of the variation in household wealth. Indeed, for certain groups such as non-white, rural residents, and the low educated, the coefficients of the regression model are insignificant. Moreover, when the top wealth holders are removed from the sample and when non-cash financial and business assets are eliminated from the household portfolios, the explanatory power of the M-B model increases markedly. Essentially, the validity of life-cycle wealth accumulation models must be restricted to the white, urban, educated middle classes and their accumulation of housing, durables, and cash. The rich have very different motives for saving and very different sources of saving, while the poor do not earn sufficient income over their lifetime to accumulate any non-negligible wealth.

Notes: This paper presents an analysis of the distributive impact of government expenditures in the United States. The analysis uses a household-level microdata file drawn from the 1970 U.S. Census of Population, with additional income and tax variables drawn from the Internal Revenue Service 1969—70 Tax File.The results are presented at both federal and local levels and include analyses of the distribution of individual benefits, as well as of overall taxes and net benefits. Since a microdata file was used, distributional effects are examined with respect not only to the “traditional” variables of income class and household size, but also with regard to the number of earners in the household and the sex and race of the household head.In a further paper in a subsequent issue of this review we will present the results of a similar analysis for the United Kingdom, and compare the results for the two countries.

Notes: In an important recent book dealing with the measurement of income inequality with particular reference to poverty,1 Prof. N. Kakwani derives several poverty indices, investigates the effect of negative income tax schemes with the help of those indices and gives a numerical illustration based on Malaysian data.The aim of this note is to point out some logical flaws in his argument. Some of the ideas expressed in the part of his book we are concerned with have been disseminated for some time now2 and referred to in subsequent literature;3 yet their shortcomings do not seem to have attracted anyone's attention. The introductory section gives a concise presentation of the relevant part of Kakwani's contribution. The next two sections deal with some problems with his approach.

Notes: The conceptual framework of the system specifies that societal resources are limited by two basic factors: the amount of available human time, and the stock of wealth inherited from the past. Wealth is defined very broadly to cover not only the conventional tangible capital assets familiar to economists, but also intangible human and other capital assets, stocks of organizational capital reflected by networks of social support systems (the family, the neighbourhood), stocks of environmental assets (the sun and air), and stocks of socio-political assets (security, freedom of choice). Human time covers market work, household production, leisure, and biological maintenance.Human time and capital stocks are used within households to produce a variety of tangible and intangible outputs, and these outputs in turn are used to produce a variety of satisfactions (utilities) or to augment stocks of capital, or both.The basic sources of well-being in the system are ultimately of two types: well-being is produced as a consequence of the intrinsic benefits from all activities engaged in by individuals, which is to say that people have preferences over the way they spend their time; secondly, people derive utilities from the existence of various stocks or states of society, and these satisfactions are independent of the way in which time is used. The satisfactions associated with flows of goods are subsumed by satisfactions derived from activities associated with those goods.The system contains a set of linkages among the various parts:inputs of goods and time are used to produce tangible household output, using the familiar notions of household production functions and constrained optimization; tangible household products, which are intermediate in the system, are used in conjunction with human time to produce direct satisfactions or to augment household capital stocks; both household (micro) and societal (macro) capital stocks are linked directly to psychological well-being; household activities are linked directly to flows of satisfactions, termed process benefits in the system; household preferences and values relating to policy variables are linked to public policies of various sorts, and policies modify the constraints and opportunities relevant for household decisions.The system also has dynamic linkages. Modifications of household or public stocks produce impacts on future flows of well-being; satisfactions from activities may adapt to the existence of constraints, hence changes in constraints can modify preferences and subsequently modify activities; and household behavior has a life-cycle dimension which is inherently dynamic.

Notes: The author attributes economic growth in Hungary to three factors: structural change, increase of employment, and productivity. On the basis of this he points out that in the 1950's the first two factors were responsible for nearly half of the economic growth. From the 1960's this tendency has changed; more and more importance has been taken by the increase of productivity. As the main source of economic growth is the increase of industrial productivity, in the further part of the study the author makes an attempt to break down the development of Hungarian industry into its components and to analyse their efficiency. Starting from the present conditions of industrial development he investigates what further increase of industry the resources accumulated till now and their probable growth will allow in the future.Taking into account the role of material and human resources the author draws the following conclusions.Industrial production will increase in the future at the same rate as productivity.The increase of industrial investment will probably be lessened, which postulates the greater increase of capital productivity as well as that productivity will increase at a higher rate than the capital-labour ratio.These conclusions assume an increase in the efficiency of industrial investment and an above average increase in the high-productivity branches.A further source of increasing productivity is accumulated human capital. The higher educational level is one of the guarantees for the ever-increasing role of productivity in economic growth in the future.

Notes: This paper compares preliminary estimates (available about four months after the close of the period to which they refer) with final estimates (available three years after the close of the period) for certain national accounting aggregates and some of their major components. It concludes that preliminary estimates are consistently low for gross domestic product, exports, and public consumption, whereas imports, private consumption, and gross capital formation may be either low or high. The best early estimates, in the sense of closest to the final figures, are those for gross domestic product, imports, and exports.

Notes: Economic realities can be described in national accounting only by certain approximative means and presumptions; therefore they cannot be measured with absolute accuracy. However, because of their great importance these investigations must fulfil as far as possible the reliability required for the economic control and planning of the national economy, in accordance with predetermined concepts and methods.The reliability of national accounting is favourable in Hungary, as they are based mostly (92 percent) on the bookkeeping data of enterprises, cooperatives and institutions. The bookkeeping system is uniform in all economic organizations, in conformity with central regulations, and it takes into account the demand of computations for national accounting.Despite these favourable conditions lesser or greater contradictions can be found in the national accounts every year. The absolute measure of the differences is not significant; however, if compared to the annual increase it results in uncertainty of 15 percent. The uncertainty is reduced by the fact that the sign of differences is the same every year.The author classifies the causes of uncertainty in national accounts into four groups: 1. problems of the time shift of the connected economic processes and of their accounting; 2. effect of the enterprise interests; 3. inadequacy of methodological regulation; 4. inaccuracy of data surveys and processing. The study deals with the special factors of inaccuracy occurring in constant price accounting. Inaccuracy of the most important aggregates, for instance that of the volume index of the national income, comes to 0.5-0.7 percent which results, in the case of a yearly 5 percent “real” increase in the index, in reliability limits of 10 to 15 percent.In the concluding part of the study the author points out that in Hungary the unexplored contradictions are not shown as “statistical discrepancy” but they are included in the various aggregates on the basis of considerations discussed in the study.

Notes: In the United States, the life-cycle relationship between initial Social Security contributions and subsequent benefits causes the effect of Social Security on income distribution to be overestimated in a single-period analytical framework. By separating the annuity from the redistributive aspects of Social Security we provide a life-cycle framework for measuring its net effect on redistribution. To this point in its history, we find all income classes have received positive net life-cycle income transfers and, in an absolute sense, upper-income groups have done at least as well as lower-income groups. This suggests a reason for the near-universal support of Social Security by past generations, as well as the controversy which now surrounds it. As it becomes apparent to younger cohorts of taxpayers that many of them will be net losers, it is inevitable that Social Security will be subject to the same controversy as other welfare programs which attempt to redistribute income.

Notes: Using data from the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, the present study analyzes, for blacks and whites separately, the impact of female market activity on the inequality of the income distribution among households. The family life cycle is divided into three stages, according to the presence and age of children: (1) the interval between marriage and the birth of the first child, (2) the child-rearing interval, and (3) a final period which begins when all the children have reached school age. Using the coefficient of variation as an indicator of inequality, the empirical results show that in period 1, the contribution of white working wives has a large equalizing impact, while that of their black counterparts results in a slight increase in dispersion. In the child-rearing and post child-rearing stages, the labor supply of mothers decreases family income inequality by a small amount for both black and white households. A decomposition of the squared coefficient of variation of family income is presented to aid in the interpretation of these findings.

Notes: Although national and sector balance sheets have long been regarded as part of the national accounting framework, for a variety of reasons their compilation by official statisticians has been the exception rather than the rule. A programme of balance sheet work in the United Kingdom Central Statistical Office has recently been completed and the results published. The theoretical and practical problems arising in the course of this work are described and discussed. Summary results are given together with an interpretation of the main changes in the sectoral composition of national wealth between 1957 and 1975.

Notes: This paper presents an analysis of the distributive impact of public expenditures and taxes in the United Kingdom. The analysis uses household level microdata from the 1971 Family Expenditure Survey, with tax and expenditure aggregates drawn from the national accounts.The analysis is the first to allocate all taxes and public expenditures for the United Kingdom, and the results are compared to those from the more restricted analyses carried out by the U.K. Central Statistical Office. Results are presented for individual taxes and benefits as well as for overall net benefits and they describe distributional effects with respect to income class, household size, number of earners and housing tenure.A final section of the paper compares the results to those from a similar analysis for the United States which were reported in the previous issue of this review.

Notes: This paper considers the impact upon measures of corporate income of a number of concepts of the maintenance of the existing capital of an incorporated trading enterprise. A main distinction is drawn between the maintenance of all the assets employed in trading and the maintenance of the net assets attributable to the owners. Measures of income and of rates of return to capital depend on whether all the assets, or only the net assets attributable to the owners, are being considered. There are three sections of the paper after an introduction. Section 2 is conceptual and section 3 illustrates the concepts, with figures for U.K. manufacturing industry in 1975 to 1977, in which the figures in company balance sheets are adjusted from book values to estimated replacement cost, and estimates are made of depreciation at replacement cost and of the consumption of stock (inventories) at replacement cost. These figures follow the concept of maintaining physical assests. I have added calculations which extend the concept of capital maintenance to all operating or trading assets, including monetary working capital; and which then calculate the amounts necessary to maintain the assets attributable to the owners of a business. The three main methods are: to apply a gearing adjustment to abate the additional capital maintenance provisions for operating assets (which are realized revaluations by reference to their original cost); to take into income additionally the geared (or debt financed) portion of unrealized revaluations; and-what is conceptually much the same thing-to count as the charge for debt only real interest (which may be negative) rather than nominal interest. Section 4 considers some problems of aggregation, particularly the derivation of aggregates for the sectors of the economy, when based on figures for individual enterprises using the various approaches to capital maintenance.

Notes: Expanded measures of government output include imputed values of the services of government capital, uncompensated factor services of military draftees and jurors, and net revaluations, as well as the usually included compensation of employees. The government output is allocated to consumption, capital formation and product intermediate to other sectors, on the basis of its classification in ten broad functions: defense, space research, education, health, sanitation, transportation, parks and recreation, natural resources, welfare, and general administration. Final government product in 1976, including $116 billion in defense and $125 billion in education, amounted to $450.5 billion, which was 26.5 percent of the 1976 GNP. This final government product corresponded to the BEA measure of $191.6 billion.Total capital formation related to government is defined to include both government product which enters into capital formation in other sectors and government expenditures for its own capital accumulation. After a more rapid rate of growth in previous years, this total government capital formation in the United States in 1976 is found to exceed gross private domestic investment. A significant but only minor portion was found to be constituted by government expenditures for capital goods and change in government inventories. Investment in research and development, health and, particularly, education and training, were dominant components in capital formation related to government.

Notes: Defining investment as outlays that increase income- and output-producing capacity, the author presents estimates of human investment in the United States 1929–69, comprising rearing costs, education, training, health, safety and mobility outlays. He develops an economic accounting framework to accommodate human investments and research and development in national and sector capital accounts, with appropriate adjustments to the current accounts to provide consistency. The associated balance sheets and wealth statements are also developed.The wealth and corresponding income estimates are used to compute rates of return on human, non-human, and total capital. In the business economy the average net rate of return on total capital was 10.6 percent in 1969, compared with 10.0 percent in 1929. The average and marginal rates of return on human capital were generally somewhat higher than on non-human capital throughout the period.

Notes: Radical changes, up and down, have taken place in the estimates of growth in total factor productivity in the U.S. made by different economists, or by the same economists at different times. If such estimates provide “some sort of measure of our ignorance,” as Abramovitz once put it, we seemed to be a lot less ignorant in 1927 (when Cobb and Douglas published their famous paper), or in 1967 (when Jorgenson and Griliches published theirs), than we were in the years between (when Schmookler, Abramovitz, Kendrick, and Denison completed their studies), or than we are today (when we have, or will soon have, revised estimates by Denison and by Kendrick, and new estimates by Christensen and Jorgenson). Viewed in this perspective, many questions may be raised about the significance of the current estimates that something like a third or more of the rate of increase in U.S. national output is “due” to increase in productivity, as well as about the concepts, data, and methods that underlie the estimates. A list of particular subjects worth considering for research is given and each is briefly discussed.

Notes: This paper examines the available evidence relative to the distribution of income in a developing country, Colombia, over a relatively long span of years, roughly from the mid-30s to the mid-60s, especially in the context of the argument that recent growth has been characterized by worsening distribution and stable or declining incomes for lower income groups. The basic conclusions are that income distribution within agriculture worsened throughout the period, while non-agricultural income probably worsened from the mid-30s to the early 50s, improved from then to the mid-60s, and then leveled off. During the period of improvement in non-agricultural income, it appears that the overall distribution also improved somewhat. Over the period as a whole, the main gainers have been the second and third deciles from the top; the top decile appears to have lost. The bottom two deciles also appear to have lost.

Notes: This paper examines two different approaches to the estimation of the size distribution of wealth. The first section describes new estimates for the distribution in Britain in 1968 using the estate method and discusses the sensitivity of the results to the main assumptions. The second section presents preliminary estimates using the investment data, a method which has not been widely used. In the final section the results obtained for the upper tail of the distribution from the two methods are compared.

Notes: This paper focuses on the use of statistical matching in the estimation and analysis of the size distribution of family unit personal income. The paper begins with a brief discussion of data on the size distribution of income in the U.S. and their limitations. Several methods of improving or augmenting those data are described, and earlier examples of statistical matching for that purpose are mentioned. A brief summary of the types of statistical matching methods which have been used is also presented. Then a recent example of statistical matching carried out at the Office of Research and Statistics, Social Security Administration, is described, and the effects on the size distribution of adjusting and augmenting the initial data using the statistically matched data from that example are shown. Material relating to the accuracy of that statistical match is presented in the appendix.

Notes: This article presents the results of the first French efforts to assemble information on the assets and liabilities of the different economic agents. The estimates cover the five-year period 1972–76, with complete balance sheets for the end of 1971, 1972, and 1976. The experimental efforts showed that estimation was feasible. It was possible to bring together the varied, often dispersed, and rarely consistent existing information into an integrated body of aggregates adapted to macroeconomic analysis. The report stresses the importance of articulating the wealth accounts logically with the flow accounts, into a complete, closed, and consistent whole in which the theoretical objectives are well specified. It also points out the limitations of the approach, stemming primarily from the state of the basic statistics relating to wealth.

Notes: This paper is concerned with the distribution of wealth in Sweden in 1975 and its development during the period 1920–75. The paper is based on a large study on wealth undertaken for the Swedish Commission on Wage-Earners and Capital Formation. The first report from this study was presented in 1979 as a book in Swedish: Roland Spånt, Den svenska förmögenhetsfördelningens utveckling (The Development of the Distribution of Wealth in Sweden), SOU 1979:9. That first report will also be published in English. Prior to that the main results can be found in this paper.During 1980–81 we intend to publish specific reports on the distribution of shareholding, the effects of inflation, the development of the distribution of wealth 1975–78, the importance of pension rights etc.

Notes: Present national accounting conventions regarding the treatment of flows and stocks in the petroleum sector are considered to be unsatisfactory. But changes in reporting requirements for oil and gas producers open up possibilities for a more satisfactory treatment.In this article some aspects of the newly adopted requirements are presented and the possible uses of the additional information available for improving social accounts are discussed.

Notes: Book reviewed in this article:Cedric Sandford et al, Costs and Benefits of VAT

Notes: Dipole-dipole induced polarization (IP) data are displayed typically as multi-level profiles, or as contours on vertical sectional plots referred to as pseudo-sections. The dipole-dipole array tends to yield IP anomalies in which the most anomalous values are displaced laterally from the source body. The data patterns are fairly interpretable on pseudo-sections or on multi-level profiles but are sufficiently complex to discourage the contouring of the data in plan.A method was developed for the presentation of dipole-dipole IP data on a contour map. The method consists of a simple averaging of data which can be performed manually if desired. It yields a single output value per station which reflects all levels of the pseudo-section, and is suitable for contouring in plan. The advantage of the technique is that it provides a quantitative picture of IP anomalies in their background or regional setting.

Notes: Constant offset sections can be mapped to a fixed offset and compared in order to provide a method of velocity analysis. The direct mapping to zero offset prior to stack might provide an alternative processing procedure to NMO and stack. The main advantage of such a procedure would lie in the correct treatment of cross-dips, but interpretational advantages might also follow from the performance of partial stacks biased to either high or low offset information.

Notes: Induced polarization and resistivity model studies over thin dykes for varying resistivity contrasts, depth of burial, and dip angles show striking parallelism of the surface apparent resistivity contours with the boundary of the body. This effect may be utilized for the estimation of strike length of the body. Results show that intermediate values of the electrode spacing is satisfactory for detection under widely varying conditions of resistivity contrast and depth. The percentage frequency effect (P.F.E.) and the metal factor (M.F.) responses are found to be more sensitive to the variation in the depth of burial than the resistivity responses. Pseudosections for P.F.E. and M.F. are concentrated much closer to the body than the resistivity pseudo-sections.

Notes: A direct interpretation scheme is developed which is capable of determining most of the geological features of a ground which can be assumed to be two dimensional in structure. This scheme extends the earlier work of Pekeris (1940) and Koefoed (1968) to the case where the basal layer of a ground is undulating. It also has a limited use for finding the parameters of a dipping dyke in the lower medium. Though the top and dip of the dyke can be determined, this is not true for the thickness.

Notes: Laboratory studies of absorption-frequency behavior in rocks often use spectral ratios of digitally recorded ultrasonic signals which have been transmitted through a rock sample and a reference sample of very low absorption, respectively. It is proposed to treat the digitally recorded signals as an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) process which, using recursive filter concepts, can be represented as a ratio of two polynomials in the z-transform variable z. The numerator polynomial contains only that part of the signal that is modified by anelastic effects, whereas the denominator contains the elastic effects of the physical apparatus such as reverberations. Examples are given which show that this separation of the recorded signal greatly facilitates the laboratory investigation of loss mechanisms and absorption-frequency behavior based on spectral ratios.

Notes: The generalized integral equation for the electric potential governed by a quasi-harmonic equation can be derived via a variational formulation. For surface current distributions it is not always a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. Numerical solutions of the general heterogeneous problem can be obtained with the “reciprocal averaging technique”, where the solution is obtained a second time after exchange of source and field points.

Notes: A method to calculate the resistivity transform of Schlumberger VES curves has been developed. It consists in approximating the field apparent resistivity data by utilizing a linear combination of simple functions, which must satisfy the following requirements: (i) they must be suitable for fitting the resistivity data; (ii) once the fitting function has been obtained they allow the kernel to be determined in an analytic way.The fitting operation is carried out by the least mean squares method, which also accomplishes a useful smoothing of the field curve (and therefore a partial noise filtering). It gives the possibility of assigning different weights to the apparent resistivity values to be approximated according to their different reliability.For several examples (theoretical resistivity curves in order to estimate the precision of the method and with field data to verify the practicality) yield good results with short execution time independent of shape the apparent resistivity curve.

Notes: A method is given for solving the dc electric field problem of a point current source in an anisotropic 2 1/2-dimensional structural model. The surface integral equation of the field strength is given. Parallel to the strike the field strength is represented by a Fourier series. On the plane perpendicular to the strike each term of the field strength series is solved by means of the method of sub-sections, where linear behaviour of field strength over the sub-sections is assumed. Some numerical examples for different galvanic effects are given.

Notes: It is proposed that the vertical resolving power of a seismic signal is controlled by three aspects: the width of the central lobe, the side lobe ratio, and the side-tail oscillations. A comparative study of zero-phase signals covering the same frequency range shows that improvement of any one of these aspects inevitably leads to deterioration of one of the other aspects.An analytical simulation model is proposed of zero-phase signals free from side-tail oscillations, in which both the width of the central lobe and the side lobe ratio are adjustable. Analysis of the spectra of this model shows that, while the high frequency content of the spectrum is essential for obtaining a small width of the central lobe, the low frequency content of the spectrum plays an essential part in causing a low value of the side lobe ratio.

Notes: The objective of this study is to generate the separation-distance-domain (r-domain) transformation of the theoretically calculated wave number domain (m-domain) electromagnetic induction field component Bz(m, ω) of a stratified medium and to search for interpretive information which has been absent in the previously achieved numerical solutions of the problem.The r-domain kernel R̃(r, ω) function defining the induction field appears to adequately reflect the layering and electrical properties of the medium if it is expressed as a function of the frequency if the source-receiver separation r is small with respect to the thickness of the first layer. However, exact values of the conductivity cannot be distinguished from those of the neighboring values unless a resistive basement layer is present. This feature is the result of the truncation in series representation of the kernel function R̃(m, ω). However, this truncation is regarded as significant in the case of a conductive first layer. In m-domain static-zone studies, a conductive first layer slightly influences its r-domain correspondent.Although the computational cost of obtaining the kernel B(r, ω) by evaluation of the convolution in a cylindrical coordinate system is high, this semi-analytic solution is still superior to those based on the asymptotic assumptions.

Notes: For horizontal layering and plane horizontal impulsive wavefronts it is theoretically possible to get rid of multiple reflections by a feedback procedure which can easily be derived using raypath philosophy. To reduce the increase of noise inherent in the method the precise theoretical formulae are altered in such a manner that a practical application becomes possible. For this purpose the autocorrelation will be used.Application of the new process to a CRP section where the shot geophone distances in the field had not been long enough to attenuate multiple reflections effectively gave favourable results.

Notes: Two in situ measurements of stress wave velocity in a granodiorite massif were made. Firstly, the velocities close to the source were investigated (for elimination of the influence of cracks), and secondly, the velocities in different horizontal directions over a large area were studied from the viewpoint of their dependence on the crack system of the medium. A correlation between the mutual orientation of the cracks and the maximum or minimum values of the stress wave velocities was obtained.

Notes: The technique of linear digital filtering as developed for the direct interpretation of Schlumberger and Wenner soundings (Ghosh 1971) has been applied here for the derivation of the resistivity transform function from the field dipole measurements as the first step in directly interpreting dipole data. Filter coefficients for this transformation have been worked out for the radial-polar, perpendicular and parallel (30°) arrays of dipole sounding. The procedure combines speed with accuracy.

Notes: Dipole soundings are more sensitive to noise caused by lateral and superficial inhomogeneities than Schlumberger soundings. However, the former are preferable for deep explorations in view of the relatively short cables required. The simple solution of carrying out the field work by means of dipole spreads, and to transform the dipole resistivity diagrams into Schlumberger ones by means of proper formulae would be valid only for smooth and regular curves; but often, owing to the presence of lateral noises, the dipole data show a considerable scatter. For such cases a “continuous dipole sounding” method is proposed for which all successive dipoles are contiguous, so that all parts of the profiles are covered and interpolation is not necessary. Obviously the moving dipoles have lengths proportional to their distances, so that they appear equal in the usual bilogarithmic scale. It follows that only polar-dipole arrays may be used. The transition from a dipole to the corresponding Schlumberger apparent resistivity diagram requires an integration constant which is not unequivocally determined. Therefore, the solution is not unique, but all possible derived Schlumberger diagrams have a common part. Similarly, they have some common interpretative results, which may be referred to the original dipole diagram obtained in the field.A special measurement technique is required since the dipole-dipole voltages to be determined are noticeably smaller than the Schlumberger ones. This is true also because dipole soundings are used for great depths and for long distances between the two dipoles.

Notes: Basic requirements for a seismic reflection system using a moderate-power controlled source are discussed. General considerations and computer modelling show promise for geophysical prospecting, especially at low penetration and very high noise level. For many applications, ranging from mineral and water prospecting, to civil and military engineering, and even archeology, a relatively cheap, small and portable device of this kind might be more convenient than conventional explosive sources or sophisticated controlled sources of the vibroseis type. The use of a simple, low frequency periodic signal facilitates rapid data processing procedures and suggests that the mechanical generator will be very simple and cheap.

Notes: A method is described to transform a dipole sounding curve, obtained with any one of the common dipole arrays over a horizontally layered earth, to the form of a Schlumberger sounding curve. Starting from the general expression which relates the dipole apparent resistivity to the Schlumberger apparent resistivity and its derivative with respect to the spacing, it is possible with some approximations to derive an easy numerical computation procedure in order to perform the transformation. The applicability of the method is discussed briefly.

Notes: Approximate deconvolution by means of Wiener filters has become standard practice in seismic data-processing. It is well-known that addition of a certain percentage of noise energy to the autocorrelation of the signal wavelet leads to a filter that does not increase, or even reduces, the noise level on the seismogram. This noise addition will, in general, cause a minimum phase signal to become mixed phase. A technique is presented for the calculation of the optimum-lag shaping filter for a contaminated signal wavelet. The advantages of this method over the more conventional approach are that it needs less arithmetic operations and that it automatically gives the filter with the optimum combination of shaping performance and noise reduction.

Notes: A set of parabolae is defined to approximate the observed gravity profile for specifying the lateral density variation in a two dimensional causative body. This variation separates the “biased” as well as “unbiased” residual anomaly structure. The method may be directly incorporated into existing numerical and graphical techniques of interpretation for subsequent delineation of structural configuration. The simple relations derived by inspection of the observed gravity profile permit universal application of the technique and in particular for the determination of the size and shape of sub-shelf structures. The suitability of the method in various problems of two dimensional interpretation has been indicated through an illustration of the Godavari Basin (India).

Notes: Decomposition of IP discharge curve into a sum of exponentials yields more information than present practice does. Such a work was performed, as a beginning, by hand, plotting the ordinates on semi logarithimic paper. It gave, according to the cases, two or three exponentials, each with an amplitude Ai and the time constant τi.Three examples of ground prospection are given, the third of which shows an anomaly, unnoticed with present technique but obvious on a profile curve with A1/A2 in ordinates.A computer processing technique is described which yields directly the time constants τi by seeking a differential equation which the IP voltage satisfies; the order of the equation is set arbitrarily. On a practical prospection record with only two exponentials, the assumption that the differential equation does not depend on charge duration (everything else being equal) has been checked (the shape of the curves would depend on boundary conditions). The assumption roughly holds for charge durations from 5 seconds to 40 seconds. We hope that a larger number of exponentials will yield better results.〈section xml:id="abs1-2"〉〈title type="main"〉SommaireLa décomposition de la courbe de décharge en une somme d'exponentielles permet d'en tirer plus d'information que la pratique actuelle. Un tel travail a été fait, pour commencer, à la main en portant les ordonnées sur papier logarithmique; il a fourni, suivant les cas, deux ou trois exponentielles avec, pour chacune d'elles, le coefficient Ai et la constante de temps τi.On donne trois exemples de prospection sur le terrain, dont le dernier comporte une anomalie, inaperçue avec la technique actuelle, mais bien mise en évidence en traçant la courbe de A1/A2 le long du profil.On donne ensuite une technique de calcul sur ordinateur des τi, en recherchant l'équation différentielle à laquelle obéit la tension ΔVPP enregistrée, l'ordre de cette équation étant fixé arbitrairement. On a cherchéà vérifier sur un enregistrement de terrain, avec. deux exponentielles seulement, l'hypothèse suivant laquelle l'équation différentielle ne dépend pas de la durée de charge (toutes choses égales d'ailleurs). L'hypothèse se trouve grossièrement vérifiée pour les durées de charge allant de 5 secondes à 40 secondes, et nous espérons qu'un plus grand nombre d'exponentielles donnera de meilleurs résultats.

Notes: The conventional seismic technique is subject to a recording time following each transmission of energy, in which it is forbidden to release any new pulse. The recording time depends on the deepest reflection of interest, and is often 10 seconds or more in actual practice. To each transmission corresponds one record, i.e. a fixed amount of data which cannot be increased in a given time.Pulse coding allows us to go beyond this limit, by transmitting several times during the normal recording time. The procedure gives as many records as there are pulses, but they overlap, each event being repeated every time there is a pulse. It is possible to process the composite record back to its usual appearance with all events in their proper place if the time breaks are accurately known and make up a code such that the unavoidable noise generated by the process be kept, on the final section, below the ambient noise. The processing is quite similar to that of records made from vibrating sources, though faster in practice.The additional information can be devoted to a saving of time and money as the same profile may be recorded in a shorter time; or to an improvement of quality of the section due to a higher order of coverage, a multiplication of the ray paths and a closer sampling of the reflectors. It is also possible to record information in several planes at the same time, and to work out a 3-dimensional restitution, without loss of production.The process applies to all kinds of sources provided they can be triggered according to the code with sufficient accuracy. Depending on the source and conditions of implementation, the method benefits from other advantages such as better resolution, increased flexibility, and better coupling.Two different names have been given to the process, Sosie and Seiscode, which apply to slightly different parameters for the sequence of pulses. Sosie is more useful at sea, while the normal scope for Seiscode is onshore. Both names are trademarks for SNPA.

Notes: Two-layer type curves of apparent frequency effect for the Wenner configuration are presented. The formulation is based on the normal definition of frequency effect in terms of resistivities measured at different frequencies plus the definition of apparent resistivity over two horizontal layers as a function of first and second layer resistivities. The use of these type curves in the interpretation of multilayer apparent frequency-effect curves is described and some field examples are given.

Notes: In this paper properties of the discrete zero-phase time function are derived and compared with related properties of the discrete minimum-phase time function.The two-sided minimum-length signal is introduced and it is derived that, for any given amplitude spectrum, the two-sided minimum-length signal and the signal with zero-phase spectrum are identical signals. A comparison is made between the one-sided minimum-length signal (minimum-phase signal) and the two-sided minimum-length signal (zero-phase signal).A computational scheme is discussed which determines the zero-phase correspondent of a given signal.A method is proposed to compute zero-phase least-square inverse filters. The efficiency of minimum-phase and zero-phase least-square inverse filters is shown on signals with different phase properties.A criterion is derived which determines whether a symmetric time function has the zero-phase property. The close relationship with the minimum-phase criterion is discussed.Finally the relationship between signal length and resolving power is illustrated on numerical examples.

Notes: Empirical equalities derived from time domain induced polarization scale modelling with the gradient array over simple geometries, and from the potential field functions for equivalent simple charge configurations are similar. The function for the dyke like body is analogous to the magnetic case allowing both total and vertical magnetic field interpretation techniques to be applied to gradient array chargeability anomalies.

Notes: A checking method of digital multiple elimination and of deconvolution processing using computers and based on optical autocorrelation is first presented. Comparison between autocorrelograms before and after a single or several processing steps allows to estimate, on one hand, the strength of the deconvolution obtained, known by the study of the central parts which is in fact the signal autocorrelation, on the other hand, the multiple elimination given by the study of side parts of the autocorrelogram.Further, an optical deconvolution procedure, is presented. For this, it is supposed that the signal is known and optically reproduced in the same way as the one of a trace. This is achieved by sphero-cylindrical optics allowing trace to trace processing. Deconvolution is carried out in the spectral domain by inserting a filter in the Fourier plane of the optical unit, the transmission law of which expresses the Fourier transform of the antisignal. This filter device introduces a holographic technique called Fourier holography, in such a way phases as well as amplitudes are preserved.Several results are presented from a synthetic section and also from field sections.