ALBERT

Beschreibung: Graph theory is useful for analyzing time-dependent model parameters estimated from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data in the temporal domain. Plotting acquisition dates (epochs) as vertices and pair-wise interferometric combinations as edges defines an incidence graph. The edge-vertex incidence matrix and the normalized edge Laplacian matrix are factors in the covariance matrix for the pair-wise data. Using empirical measures of residual scatter in the pair-wise observations, we estimate the relative variance at each epoch by inverting the covariance of the pair-wise data. We evaluate the rank deficiency of the corresponding least-squares problem via the edge-vertex incidence matrix. We implement our method in a MATLAB software package called GraphTreeTA available on GitHub ( https://github.com/feigl/gipht ). We apply temporal adjustment to the data set described in Lu et al. (Geophys Res Solid Earth 110, 2005 ) at Okmok volcano, Alaska, which erupted most recently in 1997 and 2008. The data set contains 44 differential volumetric changes and uncertainties estimated from interferograms between 1997 and 2004. Estimates show that approximately half of the magma volume lost during the 1997 eruption was recovered by the summer of 2003. Between June 2002 and September 2003, the estimated rate of volumetric increase is \((6.2 \, \pm \, 0.6) \times 10^6~\mathrm{m}^3/\mathrm{year} \) . Our preferred model provides a reasonable fit that is compatible with viscoelastic relaxation in the five years following the 1997 eruption. Although we demonstrate the approach using volumetric rates of change, our formulation in terms of incidence graphs applies to any quantity derived from pair-wise differences, such as range change, range gradient, or atmospheric delay.

Beschreibung: This paper focuses on the contribution of the global positioning system (GPS) and BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS) observations to precise point positioning (PPP) ambiguity resolution (AR). A GPS + BDS fractional cycle bias (FCB) estimation method and a PPP AR model were developed using integrated GPS and BDS observations. For FCB estimation, the GPS + BDS combined PPP float solutions of the globally distributed IGS MGEX were first performed. When integrating GPS observations, the BDS ambiguities can be precisely estimated with less than four tracked BDS satellites. The FCBs of both GPS and BDS satellites can then be estimated from these precise ambiguities. For the GPS + BDS combined AR, one GPS and one BDS IGSO or MEO satellite were first chosen as the reference satellite for GPS and BDS, respectively, to form inner-system single-differenced ambiguities. The single-differenced GPS and BDS ambiguities were then fused by partial ambiguity resolution to increase the possibility of fixing a subset of decorrelated ambiguities with high confidence. To verify the correctness of the FCB estimation and the effectiveness of the GPS + BDS PPP AR, data recorded from about 75 IGS MGEX stations during the period of DOY 123-151 (May 3 to May 31) in 2015 were used for validation. Data were processed with three strategies: BDS-only AR, GPS-only AR and GPS + BDS AR. Numerous experimental results show that the time to first fix (TTFF) is longer than 6 h for the BDS AR in general and that the fixing rate is usually less than 35 % for both static and kinematic PPP. An average TTFF of 21.7 min and 33.6 min together with a fixing rate of 98.6 and 97.0 % in static and kinematic PPP, respectively, can be achieved for GPS-only ambiguity fixing. For the combined GPS + BDS AR, the average TTFF can be shortened to 16.9 min and 24.6 min and the fixing rate can be increased to 99.5 and 99.0 % in static and kinematic PPP, respectively. Results also show that GPS + BDS PPP AR outperforms single-system PPP AR in terms of convergence time and position accuracy.

Beschreibung: Spatial data are commonly minimal and may have been collected in the process of confirming the profitability of a mining venture or investigating a contaminated site. In such situations, it is common to have measurements preferentially taken in the most critical areas (sweet spots, allegedly contaminated areas), thus conditionally biasing the sample. While preferential sampling makes good practical sense, its direct use leads to distorted sample moments and percentiles. Spatial clusters are a problem that has been identified in the past and solved with approaches ranging from ad hoc solutions to highly elaborate mathematical formulations, covering mostly the effect of clustering on the cumulative frequency distribution. The method proposed here is a form of resample, free of special assumptions, does not use weights to ponder the measurements, does not find solutions by successive approximation and provides variability in the results. The new method is illustrated with a synthetic dataset with an exponential semivariogram and purposely generated to follow a lognormal distribution. The lognormal distribution is both difficult to work with and typical of many attributes of practical interest. Testing of the new solution shows that sample subsets derived from resampled datasets can closely approximate the true probability distribution and the semivariogram, clearly outperforming the original preferentially sampled data.

Beschreibung: Extreme precipitation event is rare and mostly occurs on a relatively small local scale, which presents marked uncertainties when analyzing its characteristics. Using daily precipitation data covering 1959–2009 from 62 stations over the Pearl River Basin, the percentile method (PM) and the absolute critical value method (ACVM) are applied to define extreme precipitation thresholds (EPT), and their different impacts on the spatial–temporal distribution of extreme precipitation event were analyzed in this study. The findings of this study show: (1) Using the K -means clustering algorithm in terms of precipitation indices and the topography, longitude and latitude of each station, the whole basin is divided into eight precipitation zones. (2) The extreme indices, including extreme precipitation frequency, extreme precipitation proportion and proportion of extremely n-day precipitation, calculated by PM are markedly higher than those calculated by ACVM during five decades, which is particularly obvious in the low precipitation area such as the west-northern of the basin since more daily precipitation events are treated as extreme precipitation in this region if EPT is defined by PM. (3) The spatial distributions of extreme frequencies respectively calculated by these two methods are quite different across the basin. The spatial distribution of extreme frequencies calculated by ACVM shows a high-value center in the southeast coastal areas and a low-value center in the northwest mountain areas. However, the extreme frequencies calculated by PM distribute evenly over the basin, which is obviously inconsistent with the empirical results, an area with heavy precipitation usually has a high extreme precipitation frequency, and vice versa.

Beschreibung: Sewer inlet structures are vital components of urban drainage systems and their operational conditions can largely affect the overall performance of the system. However, their hydraulic behaviour and the way in which it is affected by clogging is often overlooked in urban drainage models, thus leading to misrepresentation of system performance and, in particular, of flooding occurrence. In the present paper, a novel methodology is proposed to stochastically model stormwater urban drainage systems, taking the impact of sewer inlet operational conditions (e.g. clogging due to debris accumulation) on urban pluvial flooding into account. The proposed methodology comprises three main steps: (i) identification of sewer inlets most prone to clogging based upon a spatial analysis of their proximity to trees and evaluation of sewer inlet locations; (ii) Monte Carlo simulation of the capacity of inlets prone to clogging and subsequent simulation of flooding for each sewer inlet capacity scenario, and (iii) delineation of stochastic flood hazard maps. The proposed methodology was demonstrated using as case study design storms as well as two real storm events observed in the city of Coimbra (Portugal), which reportedly led to flooding in different areas of the catchment. The results show that sewer inlet capacity can indeed have a large impact on the occurrence of urban pluvial flooding and that it is essential to account for variations in sewer inlet capacity in urban drainage models. Overall, the stochastic methodology proposed in this study constitutes a useful tool for dealing with uncertainties in sewer inlet operational conditions and, as compared to more traditional deterministic approaches, it allows a more comprehensive assessment of urban pluvial flood hazard, which in turn enables better-informed flood risk assessment and management decisions.

Beschreibung: Impact mitigation practices are currently one of the hottest topics in conservation and regarded as priorities worldwide. Forest bat populations are known to provide important ecosystem services such as pest control and bat boxes have become one of the most popular management options for counteracting the loss of roosts. However, bat boxes tend to be employed in non-native forests near highly humanized areas where human disturbance is higher. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the surrounding landscape composition affects bat box occupancy in urban non-native forests along the Mediterranean corridor in the Northeastern Iberian Peninsula. Two hundred wooden bat boxes were monitored in young non-native forests in the period 2004–2012. The influence of land cover on occupancy rate of bat boxes was analysed at the landscape level in a 5 km buffer around bat-box stations. In total, 1659 inspections were carried out, in which a 15 % occupancy rate was detected. Bat boxes hosted three different species ( Pipistrellus pygmaeus , Pipistrellus kuhlii and Nyctalus leisleri ). More than 70 % of the occupancy can be explained by habitat and spatial composition. The presence of urban areas around bat boxes tends to have a negative impact on bat occupation rates; by contrast, forest coverage has a positive effect, especially for the tree-dwelling bats. These patterns could be associated with the large number of available roosts in buildings, microhabitat or phylopatry. Thus, to increase success, we suggest that landscape composition should be considered when using bat boxes for conservation.

Beschreibung: Publication date: Available online 9 July 2016 Source: Geodesy and Geodynamics Author(s): Ruisha Li, Xi Zhang, Shouwen Gong, Hongtao Tang, Peng Jia The equation for determining cross-fault representative value is calculated based on hanging wall and foot wall reference level surfaces. The cross-fault data reliability are analyzed base on the stability of reference datum and observation points, thereby facilitating plotting of the representative value curves after removing interference. The spatial and temporal characteristics of fault deformation abnormalities before the 2016 Menyuan M s6.4 earthquake, as well as the fault-movement characteristics reflected by representative value, are summarized. The results show that many site trends had changed 1–3 years before the Menyuan M s6.4 earthquake in the Qilian Fault, reflecting certain background abnormalities. The short-term abnormalities centrally had appeared in the 6 months to 1 year period before the earthquake near and in the neighborhood of the source region, demonstrating a significantly increased number of short-term abnormalities. Many sites near and in the neighborhood of the source region had strengthened inverse activities or had changed from positive to inverse activities in the most recent 2–3 years, which reflect stress-field enhancements or adjustment features.

Beschreibung: This article illustrates a case study on the economic impact of autonomy of one of the five Italian special-statute regions, namely Friuli-Venezia Giulia. This region had, and continues to have, legislative, administrative and financial prerogatives in areas of public intervention that are the duty of the central government in the 15 Italian ordinary regions. Accordingly, Friuli-Venezia Giulia could have year by year exploited such prerogatives to achieve an economic development higher than that attainable in the absence of its autonomy. In other words, Friuli-Venezia Giulia long-run economic growth would have been less than that actually experienced if the region had been an ordinary one. To test this hypothesis, the synthetic control method has been adopted. A suitable synthetic Friuli-Venezia Giulia has been constructed to contrast the evolution of regional real per capita GDP, observed over the post-autonomy-policy period, with the corresponding evolution of the same aggregate for the synthetic counterpart. This comparison reveals that if Friuli-Venezia Giulia were not an autonomous region, its per capita GDP would be significantly lower than that effectively observed.

Beschreibung: This study investigates the deformation characteristics of cataclinal slopes in central Taiwan prior to landslide failure. Field surveys and physical model tests were performed to explain the gravitational deformation characteristics of cataclinal slopes under various conditions and to derive the deformation process and failure characteristics. The results show that the distribution of erosion gullies (different length of the slope mass), the extent of erosion (different thickness of the slope mass), the foliation dip angle, and the geological material critically affect the deformation of cataclinal slope masses in the study area. The results of physical model tests indicate that increasing the foliation dip angle, the thickness and the length of sliding mass, particle size (spacing between foliations) increases the depth of slope deformation. Foliation dip angle is the most critical factor that controls the deformation of slate slopes. When the cataclinal slopes reached maximum deformation, a shear failure and translational slide occurred within a short period. The deformation zone exhibited significant cracking at the scarp and the bulging of the slope toe, which facilitated the infiltration of surface water and groundwater, accelerating the deformation to failure.

Beschreibung: On 11 January 2013, a catastrophic landslide of ∼0.2 million m 3 due to a prolonged low-intensity rainfall occurred in Zhenxiong, Yunnan, southwestern China. This landslide destroyed the village of Zhaojiagou and killed 46 people in the distal part of its path. The displaced landslide material traveled a horizontal distance of ∼800 m with a vertical drop of ∼280 m and stopped at 1520 m a.s.l. To examine the possible mechanism and behavior of the landslide from initiation to runout, the shear behavior of soil samples collected from the sliding surface and runout path was examined by means of ring shear tests. The test results show that the shear strength of sample from the sliding surface is less affected by shear rate while the shear rate has a negative effect on the shear strength of runout path material. It is suggested that the source and runout path materials follow the frictional and Voellmy rheology, respectively. Post-failure behavior of the landslide was modeled by using a DAN-W model, and the numerical results show that the selected rheological relationships and parameters based on the results of ring shear tests may provide good performance in modeling the Zhenxiong landslide.

Beschreibung: Linking atmospheric and hydrological models is challenging because of a mismatch of spatial and temporal resolutions in which the models operate: dynamic hydrological models need input at relatively fine temporal (daily) scale, but the outputs from general circulation models are usually not realistic at the same scale, even though fine scale outputs are available. Temporal dimension downscaling methods called disaggregation are designed to produce finer temporal-scale data from reliable larger temporal-scale data. Here, we investigate a hybrid stochastic weather-generation method to simulate a high-frequency (daily) precipitation sequence based on lower frequency (monthly) amounts. To deal with many small precipitation amounts and capture large amounts, we divide the precipitation amounts on rainy days (with non-zero precipitation amounts) into two states (named moist and wet states, respectively) by a pre-defined threshold and propose a multi-state Markov chain model for the occurrences of different states (also including non-rain days called dry state). The truncated Gamma and censored extended Burr XII distributions are then employed to model the precipitation amounts in the moist and wet states, respectively. This approach avoids the need to deal with discontinuity in the distribution, and ensures that the states (dry, moist and wet) and corresponding amounts in rainy days are well matched. The method also considers seasonality by constructing individual models for different months, and monthly variation by incorporating the low-frequency amounts as a model predictor. The proposed method is compared with existing models using typical catchment data in Australia with different climate conditions (non-seasonal rainfall, summer rainfall and winter rainfall patterns) and demonstrates better performances under several evaluation criteria which are important in hydrological studies.

Beschreibung: The French Mediterranean area is subject to intense rainfall events which might cause flash floods, the main natural hazard in the area. Flood-risk rainfall is defined as rainfall with a high spatial average and encompasses rainfall which might lead to flash floods. We aim to compare eight multivariate density models for multi-site flood-risk rainfall. In particular, an accurate characterization of the spatial variability of flood-risk rainfall is crucial to help understand flash flood processes. Daily data from eight rain gauge stations at the Gardon at Anduze, a small Mediterranean catchment, are used in this work. Each multivariate density model is made of a combination of a marginal model and a dependence structure. Two marginal models are considered: the Gamma distribution (parametric) and the Log-Normal mixture (non-parametric). Four dependence structures are included in the comparison: Gaussian, Student t, Skew Normal and Skew t in increasing order of complexity. They possess a representative set of theoretical properties (symmetry/asymmetry and asymptotic dependence/independence). The multivariate models are compared in terms of three types of criteria: (1) separate evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the margins and of the dependence structures, (2) model selection with a leave-one-out evaluation of the Anderson-Darling and Cramer-Von Mises statistics and (3) comparison in terms of two hydrologically interpretable quantities (return periods of the spatial average and conditional probabilities of exceedances). The key outcome of the comparison is that the Skew Normal with the Log-Normal mixture margins outperform significantly the other models. The asymmetry introduced by the Skew Normal is an added-value with respect to the Gaussian. Therefore, the Gaussian dependence structure, although widely used in the literature, is not recommended for the data in this study. In contrast, the asymptotically dependent models did not provide a significant improvement over the asymptotically independent ones.

Beschreibung: In general, there are few studies that analyse the impact of low temperatures on mortality, and even fewer that extend this analysis to specific causes of mortality. This study had a twofold aim: Firstly, to analyse the trend in natural-, circulatory- and respiratory-cause mortality associated with cold waves in Castile-La Mancha (Spain) across a period of analysis of 34 years, which would confer an important degree of temporal representativeness on the results obtained; and secondly, to ascertain whether this impact had decreased over the years. Time series analysis using multivariate ARIMA models with data on daily natural-, circulatory- and respiratory-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha. The independent variables were minimum daily temperature, mean daily pressure and mean daily relative humidity. We controlled for seasonalities and trend of the series, as well as influenza epidemics, cold-wave duration and chronological number in any given year. Data were stratified in three ten-year stages, i.e., 1975–1985, 1986–1996 and 1997–2008. The mortality trigger temperature was set at a minimum daily temperature of −2 °C, corresponding to the 4th ‰ of the minimum temperature series for the winter months considered. The impact on daily natural-cause mortality for each degree that the minimum daily temperature was below −2 °C was: 10.4 % (95 % CI 9.6–11.2) in the first decade; 11.9 % (95 % CI 11.0–12.8) in the second decade; and fell to 1.6 % (95 % CI 0.9–2.3) in the third. This same pattern was observed for circulatory- and respiratory-cause mortality, with the effect of cold being greater for respiratory causes. Socio-economic factors -both of adaptation and demographic- could account for this sharp decrease in mortality associated with low temperatures. These results question climate models which predict the effects of cold over long-term time horizons, while maintaining the risk attributable to low temperatures constant. Studies similar to ours should be undertaken in other regions to confirm whether it is solely local characteristics that explain this pattern or, on the contrary, whether the pattern is generalised.

Beschreibung: Snow physical properties, snow cover and glacier facies are important parameters which are used to quantify snowpack characteristics, glacier mass balance and seasonal snow and glacier melt. This study has been done using C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data of Indian radar imaging satellite, radar imaging satellite-1 (RISAT)-1, to estimate the seasonal snow cover and retrieve snow physical properties (snow wetness and snow density), and glacier radar zones or facies classification in parts of North West Himalaya (NWH), India. Additional SAR data used are of Radarsat-2 (RS-2) satellite, which was used for glacier facies classification of Smudra Tapu glacier in Himachal Pradesh. RISAT-1 based snow cover area (SCA) mapping, snow wetness and snow density retrieval and glacier facies classification have been done for the first time in NWH region. SAR-based inversion models were used for finding out wet and dry snow dielectric constant, dry and wet SCA, snow wetness and snow density. RISAT-1 medium resolution scan-SAR mode (MRS) in HV polarization was used for first time in NWH for deriving time series of SCA maps in Beas and Bhagirathi river basins for years 2013–2014. The SAR-based inversion models were implemented separately for RISAT-1 quad pol. FRS2, for wet snow and dry snow permittivity retrieval. Masks for layover and shadow were considered in estimating final snow parameters. The overall accuracy in terms of R 2 value comes out to be 0.74 for snow wetness and 0.72 for snow density based on the limited ground truth data for subset area of Manali sub-basin of Beas River up to Manali for winter of 2014. Accuracy for SCA was estimated to be 95 % when compared with optical remote sensing based SCA maps with error of ±10 %. The time series data of RISAT-1 MRS and hybrid data in RH/RV mode based decompositions were also used for glacier radar zones classification for Gangotri and Samudra Tapu glaciers. The various glaciers radar zones or facies such as debris covered glacier ice, clean or bare glacier ice radar zone, percolation/refreeze radar zone and wet snow, ice wall etc., were identified. The accuracy of classified maps was estimated using ground truth data collected during 2013 and 2014 glacier field work to Samudra Tapu and Gangotri glaciers and overall accuracy was found to be in range of 82–90 %. This information of various glacier radar zones can be utilized in marking firn line of glaciers, which can be helpful for glacier mass balance studies.

Beschreibung: We examine the presence of residual nongravitational signatures in gravitational gradients measured by GOCE electrostatic gravity gradiometer. These signatures are observed over the magnetic poles during geomagnetically active days and can contaminate the trace of the gravitational gradient tensor by up to three to five times the expected noise level of the instrument ( \(\sim \) 11 mE). We investigate these anomalies in the gradiometer measurements along many satellite tracks and examine possible causes using external datasets, such as interplanetary electric field measurements from the ACE (advanced composition explorer) and WIND spacecraft, and Poynting vector (flux) estimated from equivalent ionospheric currents derived from spherical elementary current systems over North America and Greenland. We show that the variations in the east-west and vertical electrical currents and Poynting vector components at the satellite position are highly correlated with the disturbances observed in the gradiometer measurements. The results presented in this paper reveal that the disturbances are due to intense ionospheric current variations that are enhanced by increased solar activity that causes a very dynamic drag environment. Moreover, successful modelling and removal of a high percentage of these disturbances are possible using external geomagnetic field observations.

Beschreibung: This study develops three microbial growth models in the sewage biodegradation process driven by white noise, colored noise and hybrid noises, respectively. The proposed models are more universal in reflecting the impact of uncertainty on microbial systems, compared with the previous efforts. An improved Box–Mueller algorithm is used to solve the model. The modeling results show that the different noise types have remarkable effects on microbial growth kinetics. To better understanding the insights of various noises affecting the system, the growth process of microbial in the sewage biodegradation process is discussed under different conditions with varied noise properties (i.e. intensity and correlation time). The results indicate that the effect of noise on the microbial growth kinetics decreases with the reduction of the noise intensity and the correlation time. Therefore, a known noise can be relieved by changing the noise intensity or the correlation time. As the model driven by noises is capable of addressing the system’s uncertainty, it is useful in supporting stochastic simulation, risk analysis, and process design of a sewage biological treatment system. Future works may focus on the development of more effective statistical-inference methods for the noises based on observed data.

Beschreibung: Projections of changes in climate are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on natural and social systems. However, current knowledge on assembling different GCMs to estimate future climate change over the Pear River basin is still limited so far. This study examined the capability of BMA and arithmetic mean (AM) method in assembling precipitation and temperature from CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Pearl River basin. Results show that the BMA outperforms the traditional AM method. Precipitation tends to increase over the basin under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, whereas decrease under RCP8.5. The most remarkable increase of precipitation is found in the northern region under RCP2.6 scenario. The linear trend of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature increases with the growing CO 2 concentration. The warming trends in four seasons are distinct. The warming rate is prominent in summer and spring than that in other season, meanwhile it is larger in western region than in other parts of the basin. The findings can provide beneficial reference to water resources and agriculture management strategies, as well as the adaptation and mitigation strategies for floods and droughts under the context of global climate change.

Beschreibung: In this paper we introduce a novel functional clustering method, the Bagging Voronoi K-Medoid Aligment (BVKMA) algorithm, which simultaneously clusters and aligns spatially dependent curves. It is a nonparametric statistical method that does not rely on distributional or dependency structure assumptions. The method is motivated by and applied to varved (annually laminated) sediment data from lake Kassjön in northern Sweden, aiming to infer on past environmental and climate changes. The resulting clusters and their time dynamics show great potential for seasonal climate interpretation, in particular for winter climate changes.

Beschreibung: Green space in cities contributes to the quality of life for city dwellers, e.g., by increasing the opportunity for recreation. However, perception of urban green space is influenced by multiple factors. We investigated effects of biodiversity and environment-related attitudes on visual and auditory perceptions of urban green space. Field measurements of biodiversity were conducted in six sites across an urban gradient in Gothenburg, Sweden, and three categories of biodiversity—high, medium, low—were established. Households were sent a survey on aesthetic perception of urban green space, sound perception and the importance of trees and plants for the perception of bird species. Each respondent focused on the site that was located nearby. The environment-related attitudes comprised “Nature-oriented” and “Urban-oriented” persons and were based on participants’ own attitude estimations. It was shown that participants’ “subjective” aesthetic and sound-related perception of urban greenery were in line with the “objectively” measured subdivisions of high, medium and low biodiversity. So also were their estimations of the importance of trees and plants for perception of bird species in urban greenery, although differing only between high and medium/low biodiversity conditions. Persons rating themselves as highly nature-oriented were shown to give higher scores to urban green space aesthetics and to value greenery-related sounds higher, and to attach greater importance to trees and plants in their perception of bird species in urban greenery, than less nature-oriented persons. Highly urban-oriented persons compared to less urban-oriented persons did the same, but only regarding urban greenery-related aesthetics and sounds of nature. We conclude that environment-related attitudes influence perceptions of green space. Moreover, our findings support the idea that biodiversity per se also influences perceptions; people value green space significantly more with high than with low measured biodiversity. Urban planning needs to provide city inhabitants with green spaces that are species-rich, lush, varied and rich with natural sounds.

Beschreibung: A Kriging - based surrogate model provides a logically strict and efficient tool to evaluate the system reliability of a slope. However, the constant trend function adopted in the ordinary Kriging (OK) cannot always well capture the nonlinear non-smooth properties of a slope stability problem. Although the universal Kriging (UK) with a linear or a quadratic trend function could be an alternative for some cases, a higher order nonlinear trend function is preferable for some more complicated nonlinear non-smooth cases in the slope stability analysis. To address this problem, a genetic algorithm (GA) optimized Taylor Kriging (TK) surrogate model is proposed for the system reliability analysis of soil slopes in this paper. The proposed surrogate model allows a unified framework of the Kriging, considering different extents of nonlinear properties according to the Taylor expansion order (e.g., can be as high as the fourth order). The GA is introduced to search for the optimal correlation parameters, of which the effectiveness is verified by an analytical example. The feasibility of the proposed surrogate model is then validated by two analytical examples before its application to the practical slope reliability analyses. The results show that the UK model can be incorporated into the TK model, and the TK model provides a higher accuracy and efficiency when facing the highly nonlinear slope stability problems. It is also found that the UK model cannot fully capture the potential nonlinear properties existed in a slope stability model as compared with the higher order TK model.

Beschreibung: Aiming to understand the propagation and deposit behaviours of a granular avalanche along a 3D complex basal terrain, a new 3D experimental platform in 1/400 scale was developed according to the natural terrain of the Xiejiadianzi rock avalanche, with a series of laboratory experiments being conducted. Through the conduction of these tests, parameters, including the morphological evolution of sliding mass, run-outs and velocities of surficial particles, thickness contour and centre of final deposit, equivalent frictional coefficient, and energy dissipation, are documented and analysed, with the geomorphic control effect, material grain size effect, drop angle effect, and drop distance effect on rock avalanche mobility being discussed primarily. From the study, some interesting conclusions for a better understanding of rock avalanche along a 3D complex basal topography are reached. (1) For the granular avalanche tested in this study, great differences between the evolutions of the debris along the right and left branch valleys were observed, with an obvious geomorphic control effect on avalanche mobility presented. In addition, some other interesting features, including groove-like trough and superelevation, were also observed under the control of the topographic interferences. (2) The equivalent frictional coefficients of the granular avalanches tested here range from 0.48 to 0.57, which is lower than that reached with a set-up composed of an inclined chute and horizontal plate and higher than that reached using a set-up composed of only an inclined chute. And the higher the drop angle and fine particle content, the higher the equivalent frictional coefficient. The effect of drop distance on avalanche mobility is minor. (3) For a granular avalanche, momentum transfer plays an important role in the motion of mass, which can accelerate the mobility of the front part greatly through delivering the kinetic energy of the rear part to the front.

Beschreibung: The Kalman filter is derived directly from the least-squares estimator, and generalized to accommodate stochastic processes with time variable memory. To complete the link between least-squares estimation and Kalman filtering of first-order Markov processes, a recursive algorithm is presented for the computation of the off-diagonal elements of the a posteriori least-squares error covariance. As a result of the algebraic equivalence of the two estimators, both approaches can fully benefit from the advantages implied by their individual perspectives. In particular, it is shown how Kalman filter solutions can be integrated into the normal equation formalism that is used for intra- and inter-technique combination of space geodetic data.

Beschreibung: This paper discusses the differences between mean tide level (MTL) and mean sea level (MSL) as demonstrated using information from a global tide gauge data set. The roles of the two main contributors to differences between MTL and MSL (the M4 harmonic of the M2 semidiurnal tide, and the combination of the diurnal tides K1 and O1) are described, with a particular focus on the spatial scales of variation in MTL–MSL due to each contributor. Findings from the tide gauge data set are contrasted with those from a state-of-the-art global tide model. The study is of interest within tidal science, but also has practical importance regarding the type of mean level used to define land survey datums. In addition, an appreciation of MTL–MSL difference is important in the use of the historical sea level data used in climate change research, with implications for some of the data stored in international databanks. Particular studies are made of how MTL and MSL might differ through the year, and if MTL is measured in daylight hours only, as has been the practice of some national geodetic agencies on occasions in the past.

Beschreibung: We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes.

Beschreibung: In this paper, we address the problem of getting order statistics for georeferenced functional data by means of depth functions. To reach this aim, we introduce the concept of spatial dispersion function for functional data in a specific location of the geographic space. Then we generalize the notion of modified half-region depth to spatial dispersion functions. Through the use of spatial dispersion functions we show how the data ordering criterion depends not only on the functional but also on the spatial component. The proposal is applied to two wide simulation studies and to real data coming from sensors.

Beschreibung: In order to improve the rock breaking efficiency of hard rock tunnel boring, many innovative rock breaking methods have been proposed (e.g., the water jet cutting, the high-power laser cutting, the impact-rotary drilling, and the undercutting method). However, most of the methods are not applicable to TBMs due to some structural reasons. Aiming on this problem, a free-face-assisted rock breaking method based on the multi-stage TBM cutterhead has been proposed. Series of proof-of-concept tests includes (1) the static compression test with vertical free face and (2) the rotary cutting tests in different free surface conditions were designed and carried out. The results show that the rock breaking force and efficiency can be significantly reduced and improved, respectively, with the assistance of the free face, due to the failure of the rock close to the free face is tensile-dominated failure. The influencing distance of the free face in the radial direction is at least 330 mm which covers about 5 disk cutters. Finally, the general structure of a small two-stage cutterhead (4 m in diameter) was tentatively designed in order to provide a possible approach to apply the free-face effect to TBMs.

Beschreibung: Discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) as an efficient technique has been extensively applied in the dynamic simulation of discontinuous rock mass. In the original DDA (ODDA), the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion is employed as the judgment principle of failure between contact blocks, and the friction coefficient is assumed to be constant in the whole calculation process. However, it has been confirmed by a host of shear tests that the dynamic friction of rock joints degrades. Therefore, the friction coefficient should be gradually reduced during the numerical simulation of an earthquake-induced rockslide. In this paper, based on the experimental results of cyclic shear tests on limestone joints, exponential regression formulas are fitted for dynamic friction degradation, which is a function of the relative velocity, the amplitude of cyclic shear displacement and the number of its cycles between blocks with an edge-to-edge contact. Then, an improved DDA (IDDA) is developed by implementing the fitting regression formulas and a modified removing technique of joint cohesion, in which the cohesion is removed once the ‘sliding’ or ‘open’ state between blocks appears for the first time, into the ODDA. The IDDA is first validated by comparing with the theoretical solutions of the kinematic behaviors of a sliding block on an inclined plane under dynamic loading. Then, the program is applied to model the Donghekou landslide triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The simulation results demonstrate that the dynamic friction degradation of joints has great influences on the runout and velocity of sliding mass. Moreover, the friction coefficient possesses higher impact than the cohesion of joints on the kinematic behaviors of the sliding mass.

Beschreibung: Ring laser gyroscope technique directly senses the Earth’s instantaneous rotation pole (IRP), whose polar motion contains strong retrograde diurnal components induced by external torques due to the gravitational attraction of the Moon and Sun. The first direct measurement of this retrograde diurnal motion with three large ring lasers was reported by Schreiber et al. (J Geophys Res 109(B18):B06405, 2004 ). Since then many technical improvements led to a significant increase in precision and stability of ring laser gyroscopes; however, precise determination of amplitude and phase at main partial waves has not been given in the literature. In this paper, I will report on determination of the retrograde diurnal motion of the IRP at main partial waves ( \(Oo_1, J_1, K_1, M_1, O_1, Q_1\) ) by the ring laser “G”, located in Wettzell, Germany, which is the most stable one amongst the currently running large ring laser gyroscopes.

Beschreibung: An integrated model is presented for the calculation of the characteristics in the intermediate field region of brine discharges from reverse osmosis desalination plants into unstratified stagnant coastal waters. The model consists of the near field model Modified CorJet Model and the far field model, which are interconnected via a coupling algorithm. This algorithm has been developed to simulate the flow and concentration characteristics of negatively buoyant jets (NBJ) after their impingement on the bottom. The coupling method was developed to be active according to literature, however further work and investigation is needed to be applicable for NBJ discharged into other ambient environments and especially in cases where the background values of ambient flow and concentrations affect the NF values and vice versa. The integrated model was validated with data from the literature as well as with data from experiments conducted in this study showing a good agreement. The coupling algorithm was also compared to other coupling techniques used in the literature for NBJ discharges showing better estimations of the experimental data.

Beschreibung: A key function of local governments is to provide a wide array of public services. The supply of these services has been found to create spatial spillovers among neighbouring municipalities. Although it is generally agreed that spillovers are present in models that explain government expenditures, their type—whether endogenous, exogenous or residual—and sign—whether positive or negative—remain ambiguous. In most cases, a subjective process is used to select the type of spatial regression model used in analysis, with mixed results. Per capita expenditures of ten subprogrammes (Security, Housing, Welfare, Environment, Social services, Employment promotion, Health, Education, Culture and Sport) are analysed for all Spanish municipalities with more than 5000 inhabitants in the 2010–2012 period. A Spatial Seemingly Unrelated Regression methodology in a panel framework is used to incorporate correlation between different subprogrammes and spatial dependence. Our results show that the three types of spatial effects are present. Furthermore, substantive dependence is positive in most cases, while negative residual dependence is observed in some.

Beschreibung: In this paper, we propose an adaptive filtering technique for Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. A new windowing technique is introduced where the total window is divided into five equal sized overlapping sub-windows. The pixel to be filtered is a part of each of these sub-windows. A weighted mean of all sub-windows is computed for the pixel under consideration. The weights are accounted from a measure of heterogeneity calculated for each sub-windows. The filter is able to adapt automatically and adjust the speckle suppression strength based on local statistics. This allows the filter to preserve edges while strongly suppressing speckle over homogeneous areas. The proposed filter was compared with some well known SAR filtering techniques in terms of speckle suppression and edge preservation ability. Several experiments were performed on datasets acquired from both air-borne and space-borne SAR platforms. Some well known indices were used for quantitative comparison with other filters. Among the filters compared, the proposed filter shows good speckle suppression ability while still exhibiting reasonable edge preservation ability.

Beschreibung: Failure of rockbolts as a result of shear or bending loads can often be found in underground excavations. The response of rock anchorage systems has been studied in shear, both by laboratory tests as well as numerical modelling in this study. A double shear test was developed to examine the shear behaviour of a bolt installed across two joints at different angles. To investigate the influence of various parameters in the double shear test, a numerical model of a fully grouted rockbolt installed in concrete was constructed and analysed using FLAC3D code. A number of parameters were considered including concrete strength, inclination between rockbolt and joints and rockbolt diameter. The numerical model considered three material types (steel, grout and concrete) and three interfaces (concrete–concrete, grout–concrete and grout–rockbolt). The main conclusions drawn from the study were that the level of bolt resistance to shear was influenced by rock strength, inclination angle, and diameter of the rockbolt. The numerical simulation of the bolt/grout interaction and deformational behaviour was found to be in close agreement with earlier experimental test results.

Beschreibung: This paper addresses a regional-scale analysis of the rainfall-induced landslides for 2014 storm events based on detailed hydro-meteorological data set in the Ialomita Subcarpathians. This area is located in the western part of the Curvature Subcarpathians, a complex geological and geomorphic unit in Romania. The high temporal frequency of landslide events in the last decades (1997, 1998, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012 and 2014) leads us to considerer that these processes play a major role in the evolution of this area’s landscape where the most frequent landforms are rotational slides, translational slides, mudslides and complex movements. The rainy period between April and August 2014 induced numerous flash floods and landslides in this specific area that resulted to severe economic losses estimated to 8 million euros in Dambovita County. Spatially distributed rainfall during the main storm events estimated from adjusted radar-based precipitation was used to investigate the hydro-meteorological conditions that triggered or not landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians. Hydrological pre-conditions were assessed by hourly in situ soil moisture measurements at local scale and hydrological modelling at regional scale. ModClark semi distributed model implemented in HEC HMS software that integrates radar data was used to analyse catchment response to the main rainfall event that resulted to landslides in 2014. Analysis between rainfall, soil moisture conditions and direct runoff was performed for identifying the contribution of the hydro-meteorologic conditions to landsliding process in the Ialomita Subcarpathians. A detailed landslide inventory based on field mapping and visual interpretation of satellite and aerial images was completed with information from local authorities and mass media. Despite the limited number of landslide events, this study allows a detailed insight of understanding the influence of rainfall in landslide occurrence in this specific area.

Beschreibung: Most of the transboundary river basins are contested due to the overlapping water demands of their riparian countries. Hence, these border crossing river basins are under immense pressure from the rising water demand. Thus, most of these essential fresh water resources could face water bankruptcy scenario in the future. The Nile river basin is one of these contested river basins. The demand for the river’s water is rising rapidly. Research studies indicated that the river basin could become water bankrupt in the near future. In this article the authors applied the classical bankruptcy water allocation rules for allocating the predicted available water of the river basin. In addition, the authors proposed an innovative way of accounting the water contribution of riparian states and also a mechanism for weighing the water deficit allotted to them. Generally, the authors hope that this article shades some light on allocation of water under water scarcity in the Nile river basin and in other border crossing river basins which could help for avoiding water conflicts and ensuring the sustainability of these crucial freshwater resources.

Beschreibung: Predictive control is one of the most commonly used control methods in a variety of application areas, including hydraulic processes such as water distribution canals for irrigation. This article presents the design and application of predictive control for the water discharge entering into an irrigation canal located in Spain. First, a discrete time linear model of the process is described and its parameters are experimentally identified. The model is well validated within the usual canal operating range and is used to formulate a predictive control law with an incremental formulation. Finally, experimental and simulation results are presented in which predictive control has shown better performance than a well-tuned proportional, integral and derivative controller to automatically manage demanded water discharges.

Beschreibung: This paper deals with uncertainty estimation and knowledge enhancement in water distribution networks (WDNs). A new three steps data assimilation approach is introduced, which in combination with multi-objective optimization, allows selecting effective and affordable monitoring networks. An innovative cascade of Ensemble Kalman Filters is used to assimilate the information deriving from sensors measuring pressure heads, flow in pipes and demands, with the objective of increasing knowledge while preserving at the same time the structural relationships among state variables. Selection of the most appropriate and economically affordable measurement network, is then based on the derivation of a Pareto front using the NSGA-II algorithm in conjunction with the data assimilation approach. The front is obtained by compromising between the overall sensors cost and the uncertainty reduction (or knowledge enhancement), which is expressed as a function of the Total Variance of state variables. The operational use of the proposed data assimilation approach as well as the effectiveness of the chosen observation network is also demonstrated by showing the reduction of uncertainty deriving from successive assimilations of real-time observations.

Beschreibung: The assessment of the suspended sediment (SS) amount in rivers has an importance because it specifically affects the design and operation of numerous hydraulic structures such as dams, bridges, etc. This paper proposes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy embedded fuzzy c-means clustering (ANFIS-FCM) approach for estimating SS concentration. The accuracy of ANFIS-FCM models was compared with classical ANFIS, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and sediment rating curve (SRC). Daily streamflow and SS data from two stations, Muddy Creek near Vaughn and Muddy Creek at Vaughn, operated by the United States Geological Survey were used in the study. Applied models were compared with each other based on root mean square errors and correlation coefficient. Based on comparison, ANFIS-FCM performed superior to the other two models for modeling complex non-linear behavior of the suspended sediment concentration. The ANFIS-FCM model increased the performance (RMSE) of the optimal MLP model by 10 % and 16 % in estimating SSC for the downstream and upstream stations, separately. ANFIS-FCM model provided improvements in performance and parsimonious and took lesser time in calibration than the classical ANFIS model.

Beschreibung: Accurate and reliable stream-flow forecasting has a key role in water resources planning and management. Most recently, soft computing approaches have become progressively prevalent in modelling hydrological variables and most specifically stream-flows. This is due to their ability to capture the non-linearity and non-stationarity characteristics of the hydrological variables with minimum information requirements. Despite this, they present several challenges in the modelling architecture, as there is a need to establish a suitable pre-processing method for the stream-flow data and an appropriate optimization model has to be integrated in order re-adjust the weights and biases associated with the model structure. On top of that, artificial intelligent models require “trial and error” procedures in order to be properly tuned (number of hidden layers, number of neurons within the hidden layers and the type of the transfer function). However, soft computing approach experienced several problems while calibration such as over-fitting. In this research, the Response Surface Method (RSM) is improved based on high-order polynomial functions for forecasting the river stream-flow namely; High-Order Response Surface (HORS) method. Several higher orders have been examined, second, third, fourth and fifth polynomial functions in order to figure out the best fit that able to mimic the pattern of stream-flow. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, monthly stream-flow time series data located in Aswan High Dam (AHD) has been examined. A detailed analysis of the overall statistical indicators revealed that the proposed method showed outstanding performance for monthly stream-flow forecasting at AHD. It could be concluded that the fifth order polynomial function outperforms the other orders of the polynomial functions especially with May model who achieved minimum MAE 0.12, NRMSE 0.07, MSE 0.03 and maximum SF and R 2 (0.97, 0.99) respectively.

Beschreibung: This study focuses on assessing trends of reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) considering aridity. Weather data sets of 54–62 years of Inner Mongolia, a Chinese Province where climate varies from hyper-arid in the West to wet sub-humid in the East, were used. Trends were analyzed for ET o computed with the FAO Penman-Monteith method (PM-ET o ) using full data sets of maximum and minimum temperature (T max and T min ), sunshine duration (SD) used to compute net radiation, relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (WS). Trends were also assessed for ET o computed with the Hargreaves-Samani temperature eq. (ET o HS ) and the Penman-Monteith equation with temperature estimates of solar radiation and actual vapour pressure (ET o PMT ). In addition, trends relative to T max , T min , SD, RH and WS were assessed. Trends for PM-ET o show to vary with aridity, with decreasing trends in the areas marked by aridity in the West and increased trends in less arid and sub-humid areas in the East. The detected trends are well explained by the trends in weather variables which consist of large increasing trends of T max and T min and of decreasing trends for SD, RH and WS. Therefore, negative trends of ET o occur where impacts of increases in temperature and decreases in RH are smaller than impacts of declining SD and WS; otherwise, when warming influences are larger it results a positive trend for ET o . Trends were coherent when considering seasonality influences. Contrarily, results for the temperature methods, ET o PMT and ET o HS, always identified increased trends for ET o due to warming effects. These results show that it is inappropriate to assess ET o trends when using simplified temperature methods.

Beschreibung: This work discusses an experimental investigation on the thermal damage characteristics of limestone and underlying mechanism. Cylindrical rock samples were heated to a specific temperature level of 25, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, and 900 °C. Then the thermal damage evolution equation was established based on the experimental results and the characteristics of thermal damage were analyzed. Last, possible mechanisms for the observed thermo-physical and mechanical response are discussed. The results show that with the increase of temperature in the tested range of temperature, the P-wave velocity, peak compressive strength and elastic modulus decrease, but the peak strain increases; the damage factors increase faster in 200–600 °C; the development of high-temperature-induced cracks conforms to the dislocation theory; the decomposition of magnesium carbonate and dolomite is the main reaction in the tested temperature range.

Beschreibung: Preliminary results on a new test for the indirect assessment of porosity through infrared thermography are presented. The study of the cooling behavior of rock samples in laboratory, through the analysis of thermograms, proved an innovative tool for the estimation of such an important property, which is one of the main features affecting the mechanical behavior of rocks. A detailed experimentation was performed on artificially heated volcanic rock samples characterized by different porosity values. The cooling trend was described both graphically and numerically, with the help of cooling curves and Cooling Rate Index. The latter, which proved strictly linked to porosity, was employed to find reliable equations for its indirect estimation. Simple and multiple regression analyses returned satisfactory outcomes, highlighting the great match between predicted and measured porosity values, thus confirming the goodness of the proposed model. This study brings a novelty in rock mechanics, laying the foundation for future researches aimed at refining achieved results for the validation of the model in a larger scale.

Beschreibung: This paper focuses on the influence of the shapes of rock cores, which control the sliding or toppling behaviours in tilt tests for the estimation of rock joint roughness coefficients (JRC). When the JRC values are estimated by performing tilt tests, the values are directly proportional to the basic friction of the rock material and the applied normal stress on the sliding planes. Normal stress obviously varies with the shape of the sliding block, and the basic friction angle is also affected by the sample shapes in tilt tests. In this study, the shapes of core blocks are classified into three representative shapes and those are created using plaster. Using the various shaped artificial cores, a set of tilt tests is carried out to identify the shape influences on the normal stress and the basic friction angle in tilt tests. The test results propose a normal stress reduction function to estimate the normal stress for tilt tests according to the sample shapes based on Barton’s empirical equation. The proposed normal stress reduction functions are verified by tilt tests using artificial plaster joints and real rock joint sets. The plaster joint sets are well matched and cast in detailed printed moulds using a 3D printing technique. With the application of the functions, the obtained JRC values from the tilt tests using the plaster samples and the natural rock samples are distributed within a reasonable JRC range when compared with the measured values.

Beschreibung: Accurate prediction of surface runoff is critical to watershed management. In this research a semi-analytical model was adopted to solve the kinematic wave equation based on the assumption that the rate of overland-flow depth change is proportional to the rainfall excess. Simulations were compared with the results from laboratory experiments at various rain intensities. Parameters of infiltration rate and Manning’s roughness coefficient were determined. The accuracy of the semi-analytical model was evaluated by numerical simulations. The predicted outflow rates from the numerical simulations agreed well with the observed data. Further, our study indicated that the ratio ( c ) of the overland-flow depth change to the rainfall excess was a power function of the rain intensity. The depth and velocity of water flow at any time and distance could be calculated with the semi-analytical model. Hydraulic parameters including Reynolds number, Froude number, hydraulic shear stress, stream power and Darcy-Weisbach friction factor characterizing the dynamic features of overland flow of rainwater were calculated based on calculated overland-flow depth and velocity. The proposed analytical method can provide a new way to predict infiltration and runoff over sloped land.

Beschreibung: The optimal hydropower operation of reservoir systems is known as a complex nonlinear nonconvex optimization problem. This paper presents the application of invasive weed optimization (IWO) algorithm, which is a novel evolutionary algorithm inspired from colonizing weeds, for optimal operation of hydropower reservoir systems. The IWO algorithm is used to optimally solve the hydropower operation problems for both cases of single reservoir and multi reservoir systems, over short, medium and long term operation periods, and the results are compared with the existing results obtained by the two most commonly used evolutionary algorithms, namely, particle swam optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA). The results show that the IWO is more efficient and effective than PSO and GA for both single reservoir and multi reservoir hydropower operation problems.