ALBERT

Description: Intercomparison of two meteorological limited area models for quantitative precipitation forecast verification Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 591-606, 2012 Author(s): E. Oberto, M. Milelli, F. Pasi, and B. Gozzini The demand for verification of numerical models is still very high, especially for what concerns the operational Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) used, among others, for evaluating the issuing of warnings to the population. In this study, a comparative verification of the QPF, predicted by two operational Limited Area Models (LAMs) for the Italian territory is presented: COSMO-I7 (developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and WRF-NMM (developed at NOAA-NCEP). The observational dataset is the precipitation recorded by the high-resolution non-GTS rain gauges network of the National Civil Protection Department (NCPD) over two years (2007–2008). Observed and forecasted precipitation have been treated as areal quantity (areal average of the values accumulated in 6 and 24 h periods) over the 102 "warning areas", defined by the NCPD both for administrative and hydrological purposes. Statistics are presented through a series of conventional indices (BIAS, POD and POFD) and, in addition, the Extreme Dependency Score (EDS) and the Base Rate (BS or 1-BS) have been used for keeping into account the vanishing of the indices as the events become rare. Results for long-period verification (the whole 2 yr) with increasing thresholds, seasonal trend (3 months period), diurnal error cycle and error maps, are presented. Results indicate that WRF has a general tendency of QPF overestimation for low thresholds and underestimation for higher ones, while COSMO-I7 tends to overestimate for all thresholds. Both models show a seasonal trend, with a bigger overestimation during summer and spring, while during autumn and winter the models tend to be more accurate.

Description: Pore formation during dehydration of a polycrystalline gypsum sample observed and quantified in a time-series synchrotron X-ray micro-tomography experiment Solid Earth, 3, 71-86, 2012 Author(s): F. Fusseis, C. Schrank, J. Liu, A. Karrech, S. Llana-Fúnez, X. Xiao, and K. Regenauer-Lieb We conducted an in-situ X-ray micro-computed tomography heating experiment at the Advanced Photon Source (USA) to dehydrate an unconfined 2.3 mm diameter cylinder of Volterra Gypsum. We used a purpose-built X-ray transparent furnace to heat the sample to 388 K for a total of 310 min to acquire a three-dimensional time-series tomography dataset comprising nine time steps. The voxel size of 2.2 μm 3 proved sufficient to pinpoint reaction initiation and the organization of drainage architecture in space and time. We observed that dehydration commences across a narrow front, which propagates from the margins to the centre of the sample in more than four hours. The advance of this front can be fitted with a square-root function, implying that the initiation of the reaction in the sample can be described as a diffusion process. Novel parallelized computer codes allow quantifying the geometry of the porosity and the drainage architecture from the very large tomographic datasets (2048 3 voxels) in unprecedented detail. We determined position, volume, shape and orientation of each resolvable pore and tracked these properties over the duration of the experiment. We found that the pore-size distribution follows a power law. Pores tend to be anisotropic but rarely crack-shaped and have a preferred orientation, likely controlled by a pre-existing fabric in the sample. With on-going dehydration, pores coalesce into a single interconnected pore cluster that is connected to the surface of the sample cylinder and provides an effective drainage pathway. Our observations can be summarized in a model in which gypsum is stabilized by thermal expansion stresses and locally increased pore fluid pressures until the dehydration front approaches to within about 100 μm. Then, the internal stresses are released and dehydration happens efficiently, resulting in new pore space. Pressure release, the production of pores and the advance of the front are coupled in a feedback loop.

Description: Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere, 6, 255-272, 2012 Author(s): M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation ( H s ). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of H s and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

Description: Estimating ice phenology on large northern lakes from AMSR-E: algorithm development and application to Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Canada The Cryosphere, 6, 235-254, 2012 Author(s): K.-K. Kang, C. R. Duguay, and S. E. L. Howell Time series of brightness temperatures ( T B ) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are examined to determine ice phenology variables on the two largest lakes of northern Canada: Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL). T B measurements from the 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset/melt-onset and ice-on/ice-off dates on both lakes. The 18.7 GHz (H-pol) channel is found to be the most suitable for estimating these ice dates as well as the duration of the ice cover and ice-free seasons. A new algorithm is proposed using this channel and applied to map all ice phenology variables on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002–2009). Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of each variable at the pixel level reveals that: (1) both freeze-onset and ice-on dates occur on average about one week earlier on GBL than on GSL (Day of Year (DY) 318 and 333 for GBL; DY 328 and 343 for GSL); (2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (freeze-onset to ice-on) takes a slightly longer amount of time on GBL than on GSL (about 1 week on average); (3) melt-onset and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL (DY 143 and 183 for GBL; DY 135 and 157 for GSL); (4) the break-up process or melt duration (melt-onset to ice-off) lasts on average about three weeks longer on GBL; and (5) ice cover duration estimated from each individual pixel is on average about three weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart, GSL. A comparison of dates for several ice phenology variables derived from other satellite remote sensing products (e.g. NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), QuikSCAT, and Canadian Ice Service Database) show that, despite its relatively coarse spatial resolution, AMSR-E 18.7 GHz provides a viable means for monitoring of ice phenology on large northern lakes.

Description: On the representation of immersion and condensation freezing in cloud models using different nucleation schemes Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 12, 7167-7209, 2012 Author(s): B. Ervens and G. Feingold Ice nucleation in clouds is often observed at temperatures 〉235 K, pointing to heterogeneous freezing as a predominant mechanism. Many models deterministically predict the number concentration of ice particles as a function of temperature and/or supersaturation. Laboratory experiments at constant temperature and/or supersaturation often report heterogeneous freezing as a stochastic, time-dependent process that follows classical nucleation theory which might appear to contradict singular freezing behavior. We explore the extent to which the choice of nucleation scheme (deterministic/stochastic, single/multiple contact angles θ) affects the prediction of the frozen ice nuclei (IN) fraction and cloud evolution. A box model with constant temperature and supersaturation is used to mimic published laboratory experiments of immersion freezing of kaolinite (~243 K), and the fitness of different nucleation schemes. Sensitivity studies show that agreement of all five schemes is restricted to the narrow parameter range (time, temperature, IN diameter) in the original laboratory studies. The schemes are implemented in an adiabatic parcel model that includes feedbacks of the formation and growth of drops and ice particles on supersaturation during the ascent of an air parcel. Model results show that feedbacks of droplets and ice on supersaturation limit ice nucleation events, often leading to smaller differences in number concentration of ice particles and ice water content (IWC) between stochastic and deterministic approaches than expected from the box model studies. However, the different parameterizations of θ distributions and time-dependencies are highly sensitive to IN size and can lead to great differences in predicted ice number concentrations and IWC between the different schemes. Finally, since the choice of nucleation scheme determines the temperature range over which nucleation occurs, at habit-prone temperatures (~253 K) different onset temperatures of freezing create variability in the initial inherent growth ratio of ice particles, which can lead to amplification or reduction in differences in predicted IWC.

Description: A sun-tracking method to improve the pointing accuracy of weather radar Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 5, 547-555, 2012 Author(s): X. Muth, M. Schneebeli, and A. Berne Accurate positioning of data collected by a weather radar is of primary importance for their appropriate georeferencing, which in turn makes it possible to combine those with additional sources of information (topography, land cover maps, meteorological simulations from numerical weather models to list a few). This issue is especially acute for mobile radar systems, for which accurate and stable leveling might be difficult to ensure. The sun is a source of microwave radiation, which can be detected by weather radars and used for accurate positioning of radar data. This paper presents a technique based on the similarity between theodolites and radar systems as well as on the sun echoes to quantify and hence correct the instrumental errors which can affect the pointing accuracy of radar antenna. The proposed method is applied to data collected in the Swiss Alps using a mobile X-band radar system. The obtained instrumental bias values are evaluated by comparing the locations of the ground echoes predicted using these bias estimates with the observed ground echo locations. The very good agreement between the two confirms the accuracy of the proposed method.

Description: A multi-model assessment of the efficacy of sea spray geoengineering Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 12, 7125-7166, 2012 Author(s): K. J. Pringle, K. S. Carslaw, T. Fan, G.W. Mann, A. Hill, P. Stier, K. Zhang, and H. Tost Artificially increasing the albedo of marine clouds by the mechanical emission of sea spray aerosol has been proposed as a geoengineering technique to slow the warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A previous global model study found that only modest increases and sometimes even decreases in cloud drop number (CDN) concentrations would result from plausible emission scenarios. Here we extend that work to examine the conditions under which decreases in CDN can occur, and use three independent global models to quantify maximum achievable CDN changes. We find that decreases in CDN can occur when at least three of the following conditions are met: the injected particle number is 250–300 nm, the background aerosol loading is large (≥150 cm −3 ) and the in-cloud updraught velocity is low (

Description: Effects of seawater p CO 2 changes on the calcifying fluid of scleractinian corals Biogeosciences Discussions, 9, 2655-2689, 2012 Author(s): S. Hohn and A. Merico Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to anthropogenic emissions induce changes in the ocean carbonate chemistry and a drop in ocean pH. This acidification process is expected to harm calcifying organisms like coccolithophores, molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. A severe decline in coral abundance is, for example, expected by the end of this century with associated disastrous effects on reef ecosystems. Despite the growing importance of the topic, little progress has been made with respect to modelling the impact of acidification on coral calcification. Here we present a model for a coral polyp that simulates the carbonate system in four different compartments: the seawater, the polyp tissue, the coelenteron, and the calicoblastic layer. Precipitation of calcium carbonate takes place in the metabolically controlled calicoblastic layer beneath the polyp tissue. The model is adjusted to a state of activity as observed by direct microsensor measurements in the calcifying fluid. Simulated CO 2 perturbation experiments reveal decreasing calcification rates under elevated p CO 2 despite strong metabolic control of the calcifying fluid. Diffusion of CO 2 through the tissue into the calicoblastic layer increases with increasing seawater p CO 2 leading to decreased aragonite saturation in the calcifying fluid of the coral polyp. Our modelling study provides important insights into the complexity of the calcification process at the organism level and helps to quantify the effect of ocean acidification on corals.

Description: The role of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica in the cycling of trace elements Biogeosciences Discussions, 9, 2623-2653, 2012 Author(s): C. Sanz-Lázaro, P. Malea, E. T. Apostolaki, I. Kalantzi, A. Marín, and I. Karakassis The aim of this work was to study the role of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica on the cycling of a wide set of trace elements (Ag, As, Ba, Bi, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, Ga, Li, Mn, Ni, Pb, Rb, Sr, Tl, V and Zn). We measured the concentration of these trace elements in the different compartments of P. oceanica (leaves, rhizomes, roots and epibiota) in a non-polluted seagrass meadow representative of the Mediterranean and calculated the annual budget from a mass balance. We provide novel data on accumulation dynamics of many trace elements in P. oceanica compartments and demonstrate that trace element accumulation patterns are mainly determined by plant compartment rather than by temporal variability. Epibiota was the compartment which showed the greatest concentrations for most trace elements. Thus, they constitute a key compartment when estimating trace element transfer to higher trophic levels by P. oceanica . For most trace elements, translocation seemed to be low and acropetal. Zn, Cd, Sr and Rb were the trace elements that showed the highest release rate through decomposition of plant detritus, while Cs, Tl and Bi the lowest. P. oceanica acts as a sink of potentially toxic trace elements (Ni, Cr, As and Ag), which can be sequestered, decreasing their bioavailability. P. oceanica may have a relevant role in the cycling of trace elements in the Mediterranean.

Description: Smoke aerosol and its radiative effects during extreme fire event over Central Russia in summer 2010 Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 5, 557-568, 2012 Author(s): N. Chubarova, Ye. Nezval', I. Sviridenkov, A. Smirnov, and I. Slutsker Different microphysical, optical and radiative properties of aerosol were analyzed during the severe fires in summer 2010 over Central Russia using ground measurements at two AERONET sites in Moscow (Meteorological Observatory of Moscow State University – MSU MO) and Zvenigorod (Moscow Region) and radiative measurements at the MSU MO. Volume aerosol size distribution in smoke conditions had a bimodal character with the significant prevalence of fine mode particles, for which effective radius was shifted to higher values ( r eff-fine = 0.24 μm against approximately 0.15 μm in typical conditions). For smoke aerosol, the imaginary part of refractive index (REFI) in the visible spectral region was lower than that for typical aerosol (REFI λ =675 nm = 0.006 against REFI λ =675 nm = 0.01), while single scattering albedo (SSA) was significantly higher (SSA λ =675 nm = 0.95 against SSA λ =675 nm ~ 0.9). Extremely high aerosol optical thickness at 500 nm (AOT500) was observed on 6–8 August reaching the absolute maximum on 7 August in Moscow (AOT500 = 6.4) and at Zvenigorod (AOT500 = 5.9). A dramatic attenuation of solar irradiance at ground was also recorded. Maximum irradiance loss had reached 64% for global shortwave irradiance, 91% for UV radiation 300–380 nm, and 97% for erythemally-weighted UV irradiance at relatively high solar elevation 47°. Significant spectral dependence in attenuation of solar irradiance in smoky conditions was mainly explained by higher AOT and smaller SSA in UV (0.8–0.9) compared with SSA in the visible region of spectrum. The assessments of radiative forcing effect (RFE) at the TOA indicated a significant cooling of the smoky atmosphere. Instant RFE reached −167 Wm −2 at AOT500 = 6.4, climatological RFE calculated with August 2010 monthly mean AOT was about −65 Wm −2 , compared with −20 Wm −2 for typical aerosol according to the 10 yr period of measurements in Moscow.