Publikationsdatum:
2017-04-04
Beschreibung:
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
Beschreibung:
Published
Beschreibung:
623-632
Beschreibung:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Beschreibung:
JCR Journal
Beschreibung:
partially_open
Schlagwort(e):
eruption forecasting
;
event tree
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
Repository-Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Materialart:
article
Permalink
