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  • Articles  (162,463)
  • Elsevier  (106,803)
  • Springer  (55,660)
  • 1995-1999  (57,221)
  • 1990-1994  (101,447)
  • 1965-1969
  • 1955-1959  (3,797)
  • 1995  (57,221)
  • 1992  (52,762)
  • 1990  (48,684)
  • 1958  (3,797)
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  • 1950
  • Physics  (130,247)
  • Geosciences  (47,451)
Collection
  • Articles  (162,463)
Years
Year
Journal
  • 1
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Nuclear Physics, Section B 373 (1992), S. 3-34 
    ISSN: 0550-3213
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
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  • 2
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Nuclear Physics, Section B 386 (1992), S. 471-492 
    ISSN: 0550-3213
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
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  • 3
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Nuclear Physics, Section B 342 (1990), S. 1-14 
    ISSN: 0550-3213
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
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  • 4
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Physics Letters B 294 (1992), S. 466-478 
    ISSN: 0370-2693
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
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  • 5
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Physics Letters B 289 (1992), S. 199-210 
    ISSN: 0370-2693
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
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  • 6
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Physics Letters B 274 (1992), S. 230-238 
    ISSN: 0370-2693
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
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  • 7
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    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Physics Letters B 317 (1993), S. 474-484 
    ISSN: 0370-2693
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
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  • 8
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 3-4 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
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  • 9
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 10
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 11-12 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 11
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 7-8 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 12
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 5-6 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 13
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 9-10 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 14
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 81-81 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 15
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 86-87 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 16
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 90-90 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 17
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 91-93 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 18
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 94-95 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 19
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 88-89 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 20
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 108-112 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 21
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 99-107 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 22
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 96-98 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
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  • 23
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 129-138 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 24
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 121-128 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: In the previous article we covered what asset location systems (ALS) are and the features and benefits they offer. In this article we explore the various features to be considered when acquiring an ALS and steps to be taken. We discuss what users are saying they want in an ALS, including the results of a survey of vehicle tracking system users and providers.
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  • 25
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 139-142 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 26
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 113-120 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The vertical component obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations is from the ellipsoid (a mathematical surface), and therefore needs to be converted to the orthometric height, which is from the geoid (represented by the mean sea level). The common practice is to use existing bench marks (around the four corners of a project area and interpolate for the rest of the area), but in many areas bench marks may not be available, in which case an existing geoid undulation is used. Present available global geoid undulation values are not generally as detailed as needed, and in many areas they are not known better than ±1 to ±5 m, because of many limitations. This article explains the difficulties encountered in obtaining precise geoid undulation with some example computations, and proposes a technique of applying corrections to the best available global geoid undulations using detailed free-air gravity anomalies (within a 2° × 2° area) to get relative centimeter accuracy. Several test computations have been performed to decide the optimal block sizes and the effective spherical distances to compute the regional and the local effects of gravity anomalies on geoid undulations by using the Stokes integral. In one test computation a 2° × 2° area was subdivided into smaller surface elements. A difference of 37.34 ± 1.6 cm in geoid undulation was obtained over the same 2° × 2° area when 1° × 1° block sizes were replaced by a combination of 5' × 5' and 1' × 1' subdivision integration elements (block sizes).
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  • 27
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 143-144 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 28
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 145-146 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 29
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 148-149 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 30
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 146-146 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
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  • 31
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 23-27 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: This is the first in a series of three articles authored by John Beukers. In this series, John will lead us through some of today's relevant radionavigation history putting turbulent times into perspective. Picking out what he considers significant in the current debate, he projects the future for satellite and terrestrial radionavigation systems well into the 21st century.
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  • 32
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 48-53 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 33
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 38-47 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 34
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 54-58 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
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  • 35
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 59-64 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 36
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 13-22 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: Asset location systems, including vehicle and property tracking systems, are in the verge of exploding onto the scene for widespread business and personal use. This is due in part to decreased costs of GPS equipment, and greater availability of wireless communication systems, but also largely due to public awareness of their capabilities and benefits. Companies, organizations, and individual consumers that earlier could not justify the costs of tracking systems are now seriously considering their implementation. Public awareness of such systems is growing daily. Newspapers regularly have articles covering the latest applications of GPS. En route nagivation for aircraft, assisting blind people to navigate the streets of a city, and tracking skiers on slopes are some of the topics of recent newspapers articles on GPS. This article explores GPS asset location systems, looks at their features and foibles, and considers their cost, utility, ease of use, and drawbacks.
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  • 37
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 28-37 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: Executive Summary GPS is a scientific method used as an adjunct to geographic information systems (GIS) for determining high-accuracy control points over large areas. Recent improvements in receiver technology, differential surveying, and software have made use of GPS technology more practical for smaller GIS projects. This article compares three different GPSs with occupation times of 2 and 12 min using an existing control network, comparing the location of the points and the distances between points. The control network internal distances vary from 40 to 280 m, and within 2000 m of the nearest second-order National Geodetic Survey (NGS) triangulation station. The partnership of GPS and GIS will lead to higher surveying integrity while improving digital mapping on the ground over small and large areas. It also allows for postsurvey analysis with solutions coming from multiple base stations. Presented here is a case study of how to achieve highly accurate and effective control points using using GPS/GIS, particularly for a small area.
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  • 38
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 65-73 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: The NAVSTAR Global Positioning System is a space-based, all-weather, worldwide satellite navigation system. GPS uses the constellation of satellites and associated ground equipment to perform the primary missions of highly accurate navigation, time transfer, and nuclear detonation detection. To achieve these missions, GPS has three clearly defined segments – space, user and control (see Figure 1). The control segment, otherwise referred to as the operational control segment (OCS), consists of the personnel and equipment that controls the space segment and interfaces with the user segment. The OCS is made up of the master control station (MCS), the ground antennas (GA), and the monitor stations (MS). The purpose of this article is to describe how the 2nd Space Operations Squadron runs the MCS, the key element of the OCS.
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  • 39
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 74-75 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 40
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 76-79 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
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  • 41
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 80-80 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 42
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    GPS solutions 1 (1995), S. 85-85 
    ISSN: 1521-1886
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  • 43
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 27-41 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Groundwater monitoring networks ; Information reliability ; Information scales ; Kalman filtering in groundwater
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The extensive use of groundwater resources has increased the need for developing cost-effective monitoring networks to provide an indication of the degree to which the subsurface environment has been affected by human activities. This study presents a cost-effective approach to the design of groundwater flow monitoring networks. The groundwater network design is formulated with two problem formats: maximizing the statistical monitoring power for specified budget constraint and minimizing monitoring cost for statistical power requirement. The statistical monitoring power constraint is introduced with an information reliability threshold value. A branch and bound technique is employed to select the optimal solution from a discrete set of possible network alternatives. The method is tested to the design of groundwater flow monitoring problem in the Pomona County, California.
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  • 44
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 65-81 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Lagoons ; Ponds ; Facultative ; First-order kinetics ; Complete mixing ; Probabilistic ; Uncertainty ; Environmental ; Stochastic differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Two stochastic models are developed to describe the BOD output (i.e. effluent) variation of facultative aerated lagoons in series. One of the models uses the uncertainty analysis (UA) technique and the other is based on the moment equation solution methodology of stochastic differential equations (SDE's). The former considers a second-order approximation of the expectation (SOAE) and a first-order approximation of the variance (FOAV). The SDE model considers that output variability is accounted for by random variations in the rate coefficient. Comparisons are provided. Calibration and verification of the two models are aciieved by using field observations from two different lagoon systems in series. The predictive performances of the two models are compared with each other and with another SDE model, presented in a previous paper, that considers input randomness. The three methods show similar predictive performances and provide good predictions of the mean and standard deviation of the lagoon effluent BOD concentrations and thus are considered as appropriate methodologies.
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  • 45
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 89-103 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: maximum precipitation depths ; extreme-value distributions ; seasonal variation ; partial duration series ; model misspecification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Quantile estimates of the annual maximum distribution can be obtained by fitting theoretical distributions to the maxima in separate seasons, e.g. to the monthly maxima. In this paper, asymptotic expressions for the bias and the variance of such estimates are derived for the case that the seasonal maxima follow a Gumbel distribution. Results from these expressions are presented for a situation with no seasonal variation and for maximum precipitation depths at Uccle/Ukkel (Belgium). It is shown that the bias is often negligible and that the variance reduction by using seasonal maxima instead of just the annual maxima strongly depends on the seasonal variation in the data. A comparison is made between the asymptotic standard error of quantile estimates from monthlymaxima with those from a partial duration series. Much attention is paid to the effect of model misspecification on the resulting quantile estimates of the annual maximum distribution. The use of seasonal maxima should be viewed with caution when the upper tail of this distribution is of interest.
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  • 46
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 193-208 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic tidal modeling ; parameter identification ; model calibration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper a parameter estimation algorithm is developed to estimate uncertain parameters in two dimensional shallow water flow models. Since in practice the open boundary conditions of these models are usually not known accurately, the uncertainty of these boundary conditions has to be taken into account to prevent that boundary errors are interpreted by the estimation procedure as parameter fluctuations. Therefore the open boundary conditions are embedded into a stochastic environment and a constant gain extended Kalman filter is employed to identify the state of the system. Defining a error functional that measures the differences between the filtered state of the system and the measurements, a quasi Newton method is employed to determine the minimum of this functional. To reduce the computational burden, the gradient of the criterium that is required using the quasi Newton method is determined by solving the adjoint system.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 217-226 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Exponential distribution ; bivariate exponential distribution ; distribution of flood volume ; partial duration series
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 254-254 
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  • 49
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 277-294 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Water distribution ; optimization ; nonlinear programming ; integer programming ; chance constraints ; rehabilation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents the mathematical development of an integer — nonlinear programming chance — constrained optimization model for the minimum cost rehabilitation/replacement of water distribution system components. Particular attention is given to the handling of uncertainties in the roughness factors and the loading conditions including both the random demand and preassure head requirements. The advantages of the proposed model include the ability to: 1) handle the optimal timing of rehabilitation/replacement for water distribution system components; 2) link a mixed-integer linear program solver, a nonlinear program solver, and a hydraulic simulator into an optimization framework; 3) handle the uncertainties of some of the variables; 4) incorporate various kinds of cost functions; and 5) handle multiple loading conditions.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 309-320 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Entropy ; reliability ; redundancy ; water distribution networks ; nodal pair reliability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Entropy based expressions for measurement of reliability and redundancy have recently been reported. These measures approach assessment of the reliability of the distribution network from the intrinsic redundancy of the network layout. The paper extends earlier work on entropy functions by including a more explicit statement of the alternate paths available in the network and by recognizing that under certain circumstances, e.g., failure of some part of the network work, an outflow link from a node under normal working condition may become an inflow link to the same node. The measures are assessed by comparison with parameters measuring Nodal Pair Reliability and percentage of flow supplied at adequate pressure for a range of networks and link failure conditions in this networks. The entropy measures are shown to reflect changes in the network reliability, as measured by these two comparative parameters, very well.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 33-47 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hidden markov models ; maximum likelihood estimation ; EM algorithm ; martingale estimating function ; forward-backward algorithm ; Monte Carlo ; filtering ; Nash cascade model ; rainfall runoff modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (Xn, n ≥ 0) or (Xt, t ≥ 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Yn, n ≥ 0) or (Yt, t ≥ 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 117-132 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: River Quality ; network ; computer model ; Thermodynamics
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, concepts of network thermodynamics are applied to a river water quality model, which is based on Streeter-Phelps equations, to identify the corresponding physical components and their topology. Then, the randomness in the parameters, input coefficients and initial conditions are modeled by Gaussian white noises. From the stochastic components of the physical system description of problem and concepts of physical system theory, a set of stochastic differential equations can be automatically generated in a computer and the recent developments on the automatic formulation of the moment equations based on Ito calculus can be used. This procedure is illustrated through the solution of an example of stochastic river water quality problem and it is also shown how other related problems with different configurations can be automatically solved in a computer using just one software.
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  • 54
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 171-205 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: AR-AIC-Bayes filter ; autoregressive spectral density estimation ; diagnostic checks for ARMA models ; exploratory data analysis ; fast Fourier transform ; Hurst coefficient ; long-memory times series ; periodogram smoothing ; riverflow time series ; spectral density plots
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Current methods of estimation of the univariate spectral density are reviewed and some improvements are made. It is suggested that spectral analysis may perhaps be best thought of as another exploratory data analysis (EDA) tool which complements, rather than competes with, the popular ARMA model building approach. A new diagnostic check for ARMA model adequacy based on the nonparametric spectral density is introduced. Additionally, two new algorithms for fast computation of the autoregressive spectral density function are presented. For improving interpretation of results, a new style of plotting the spectral density function is suggested. Exploratory spectral analyses of a number of hydrological time series are performed and some interesting periodicities are suggested for further investigation. The application of spectral analysis to determine the possible existence of long memory in natural time series is discussed with respect to long riverflow, treering and mud varve series. Moreover, a comparison of the estimated spectral densities suggests the ARMA models fitted previously to these datasets adequately describe the low frequency component. Finally, the software and data used in this paper are available by anonymous ftp from fisher.stats.uwo.ca.
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  • 55
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 215-237 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Computation ; discretization ; entropy ; networks ; time averaging ; water quality
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The computational aspects of using a new, entropy-based, theory to predict water quality values at discontinued water quality monitoring stations are discussed. The main computational issues addressed are the level of discretization used in converting the continuous probability distribution of water quality values to the discrete levels required for the entropy function, and the choice of the interval of time for which to assign the value of the water quality (period of time averaging) through the entropy function. Unlike most cases of entropy applications involving discretization of continuous functions the results of using entropy theory to predict water quality values at discontinued monitoring stations in this application appear to be insensitive to the choice of the level of discretization even down to the very coarse level discretization associated with only eight intervals. However, depending on the length of record available the choice of the time interval for which the water quality values are assigned (period for time averaging) appear to have a significant impact on the accuracy of the results.
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  • 56
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 1-26 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Inverse ; calibration ; estimation ; groundwater flow
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The development of stochastic methods for groundwater flow representation has undergone enormous expansion in recent years. The calibration of groundwater models, the inverse problem, has lately received comparable attention especially and almost exclusively from the stochastic perspective. In this review we trace the evolution of the methods to date with a specific view toward identifying the most important issues involved in the usefulness of the approaches. The methods are critiqued regarding practical usefulness, and future directions for requisite study are discussed.
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  • 57
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 55-64 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Predictive distribution ; Bayesian approximation ; parameter uncertainty ; non-informative prior ; method of moments ; Gumbel distribution ; maximum likelihood estimates
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper Lindley's Bayesian approximation procedure is used to obtain the Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedence of a flood discharge. The Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence has been shown by S.K. Sinha to be equivalent to the estimate of the probability of exceedence from the predictive or Bayesian disribution, of a future flood discharge. The evaluation of complex ratios of multiple integrals common in a Bayesian analysis is not necessary using Lindley's procedure. The Bayes estimates are compared to those obtained by the method of maximum likelihood and the method of moments. The results show that Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence are larger as expected, but have smaller posterior standard deviations.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 105-119 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Kalman filtering ; Optimal smoothing ; Shallow water equations ; Wind stress ; On-line prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Using the state space approach, an on-line filter procedure for combined wind stress identification and tidal flow forecasting is developed. The stochastic dynamic approach is based on the linear twodimensional shallow water equations. Using a finite difference scheme, a system representation of the model is obtained. To account for uncertainties, the system is embedded into a stochastic environment. By employing a Kalman filter, the on-line measurements of the water-level available can be used to identify and predict the shallow water flow. Because it takes a certain time before a fluctuation in the wind stress can be noticed in the water-level measurements, an optimal fixed-lag smoother is used to identify the stress.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 135-150 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Radar ; rainfall prediction ; real-time prediction
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 151-160 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph ; Conceptual models ; Stochastic differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Recognizing that simple watershed conceptual models such as the Nash cascade ofn equal linear reservoirs continue to be reasonable means to approximate the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH), it is natural to accept that random errors generated by climatological variability of data used in fitting an imprecise conceptual model will produce an IUH which is random itself. It is desirable to define the random properties of the IUH in a watershed in order to have a more realistic hydrologic application of this important function. Since in this case the IUH results from a series of differential equations where one or more of the uncertain parameters is treated in stochastic terms, then the statistical properties of the IUH are best described by the solution of the corresponding Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE's). This article attempts to present a methodology to derive the IUH in a small watershed by combining a classical conceptual model with the theory of SDE's. The procedure is illustrated with the application to the Middle Thames River, Ontario, Canada, and the model is verified by the comparison of the simulated statistical measures of the IUH with the corresponding observed ones with good agreement.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 5-25 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Solute transport ; Heterogeneity ; Dispersion
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Macrodispersion is spreading of a substance induced by spatial variations in local advective velocity at field scales. Consider the case that the steady-state seepage velocity and the local dispersion coefficients in a heterogeneous formation may be modeled as periodic in all directions in an unbounded domain. The equations satisfied by the first two spatial moments of the concentration are derived for the case of a conservative non-reacting solute. It is shown that the moments can be calculated from the solution of well-defined deterministic boundary value problems. Then, it is described how the rate of increase of the first two moments can be calculated at large times using a Taylor-Aris analysis as generalized by Brenner. It is demonstrated that the second-order tensor of macrodispersion (or effective dispersion) can be computed through the solution of steady-state boundary-value problems followed by the determination of volume averages. The analysis is based solely on volume averaging and is not limited by the assumption that the fluctuations are small. The large-time results are valid when the system is in a form of equilibrium in which a tagged particle samples all locations in an appropriately defined “phase space” with equal probability.
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  • 62
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 89-101 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Detention storage ; Pollution control ; Non-point pollutant runoff
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A simple expression is presented on the capability of storage-treatment systems to reduce non-point pollutant runoff load to natural waters. Their efficiency depends on the capacities of the facilities and probabilistic properties of runoff, such as interval, duration, volume, and concentration of runoff events. Assuming the compound Poisson process for runoff time series, the exact expressions of the ratio of treated load in terms of storage and treatment capacities are theoretically derived on the neighbourhoods of all boundaries of the domain on which the problem is defined. Then, an approximate expression over the whole domain is presented, of which the value and the first-order derivative coincide with those of the exact derived expressions near the boundaries. Accuracy is checked by Monte Carlo simulations.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 55-68 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Drought severity ; Drought duration ; Renewal-reward process
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This research study focused on the hypothesis that extreme drought and high streamflow events come from different independent populations with different probability distributions which need to be studied separately, rather than considering the streamflow population as a whole. The inability of traditional streamflow generator models to consistently reproduce the frequency of occurrence of severe droughts observed in the historical record has been questioned by many researchers. Our study focused on the development of astochastic event generator model which would be capable of doing so. This was accomplished in a two-step process by first generating the drought event, and then deriving the streamflows which comprised that event. The model considered for this analysis was an alternating renewal-reward procedure that cycles between eventon andoff times, and is representative of drought or high streamflow event duration. The reward gained while the event ison oroff represents drought severity or high streamflow surplus. Geometric and gamma distributions were considered for drought duration and deficit respectively. Model validation was performed using calculated required capacities from the sequent peak algorithm.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 103-121 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Probabilistic model ; Sensitivity ; Contaminant transport
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 191-207 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrodynamic dispersion ; Fokker-Planck equation ; backward equation ; boundary layer ; complex potential function ; fraction of contaminated particles that enter a well
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we describe the transport of pollution in groundwater in the neighbourhood of a well in a uniform background flow. We compute the rate at which contaminated particles reach the well as a function of the place of the source of pollution. The motion of a particle in a dispersive flow is seen as a random walk process. The Fokker-Planck equation for the random motion of a particle is transformed using the complex potential for the advective flow field. The resulting equation is solved asymptotically after a stretching transformation. Finally, the analytical solution is compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations with the random walk model. The method can be extended to arbitrary flow fields. Then by a numerical coordinate transformation the analytical results can still be employed.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 255-269 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Emprical Orthogonal Functions ; interpolating runoff ; kriging
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF method) is combined with an objective interpolation technique, kriging, to generate runoff series at ungauged locations. In a case study the results are compared to series interpolated by a combination of EOF analysis and regression using catchment characteristics as independent variables. The results are also compared to linear weighting of an existing runoff series, a commonly used method for spatial interpolation. The influence of altitude on the runoff is studied comparing kriging based on 2 and 3 coordinates. The study showed that the capacity of EOF analysis combined with kriging is as good as the traditionally used linear weighting. The results, when altitude is included in the kriging, are improved.
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  • 67
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 270-288 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Periodicities ; hydraulic cycle ; spectral methods
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Periodicites in hydrologic data are frequently estimated and studied. In some cases the periodic components are subtracted from the data to obtain the stochastic components. In other cases the physical reasons for the occurrence of these periodicities are investigated. Apart from the annual cycle in the hydrologic data, periods corresponding to the 11 year sunspot cycle, the Hale cycle and others have been detected. The conclusions from most of these studies depend on the reliability and robustness of the methods used to detect these periodicities. Several spectral analysis methods have been proposed to investigate periodicities in time series data. Several of these have been compared to each other. The methods by Siddiqui and Wang and by Damsleth and Spjotvoll, which are stepwise procedures of spectrum estimation, have not been evaluated. Two of the methods of spectral analysis proposed by Siddiqui and Wang and by Damsleth and Spjotvoll are investigated in this study by using generated and observed data. Siddiqui and Wang's method is found to be superior to the Damsleth and Spjotvoll's method.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 289-303 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stream flow series ; shot-noise model ; sadolle-point approximation
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper we consider the shot-noise model of streamflow series. We show how design discharge can be obtained by the stochastic intensity of thinned Poisson processes describing the peaks over a threshold. The main result concerns the stationary distribution of peaks. We derive an explicit expression for this limit distribution in terms of its Laplace transform. Approximation formulas are developed making use of the saddle point method for the asymptotic evaluation of contour integrals and the Post-Widder formula for inversion of Laplace transforms. We illustrate this methods on the case of Gamma-distributed shots. The stationary peak distribution is used to approximate the maximum value distribution for larger time intervals.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 13-32 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Distributed parameter filter ; shallow water equations ; distributed dynamical systems ; data assimilation ; white Gaussian noise
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Distributed parameter filtering theory is employed for estimating the state variables and associated error covariances of a dynamical distributed system under highly random tidal and meteorological influences. The stochastic-deterministic mathematical model of the physical system under study consists of the shallow water equations described by the momentum and continuity equations in which the external forces such as Coriolis force, wind friction, and atmospheric pressure are considered. White Gaussian noises in the system and measurement equations are used to account for the inherent stochasticity of the system. By using an optimal distributed parameter filter, the information provided by the stochastic dynamical model and the noisy measurements taken from the actual system are combined to obtain an optimal estimate of the state of the system, which in turn is used as the initial condition for the prediction procedure. The approach followed here has numerical approximation carried out at the end, which means that the numerical discretization is performed in the filtering equations, and not in the equations modelling the system. Therefore, the continuous distributed nature of the original system is maintained as long as possible and the propagation of modelling errors in the problem is minimized. The appropriateness of the distributed parameter filter is demonstrated in an application involving the prediction of storm surges in the North Sea. The results confirm excellent filter performance with considerable improvement with respect to the deterministic prediction.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 77-88 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Extreme rainfalls ; partial duration series ; regional estimation ; Bayes' theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Based on the Partial Duration Series model a regional Bayesian approach is introduced in the modelling of extreme rainfalls from a country-wide system of recording raingauges in Denmark. The application of the Bayesian principles is derived in case of both exponential and generalized Pareto-distributed exceedances. The method is applied to, respectively, the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10 minutes rain intensity of individual storms from 41 stations. By means of the regional analysis prior distributions of the parameters in the Partial Duration Series model are estimated. It is shown that the regional approach significantly reduces the uncertainty of the T-year event estimator compared to estimation based solely on at-site data. In addition, the regional approach provides quantile estimates at non-monitored sites.
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    Polymer bulletin 35 (1995), S. 649-652 
    ISSN: 1436-2449
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary Water molecules sorbed in pure poly(vinyl alcohol) and poly(vinyl pyrrolidone), as well as in their blends is found to be only partially crystallizable. The fraction of noncrystalizable water is shown to vary with the blend composition. Such variation is explained by the newly proposed Tg-regulation effect when the swollen blend materials is cooled down. A part of the sorbed water cannot crystallize due to the fact that during cooling the amorphous polmer-water phase is frozen before the water crystallization temperature is reached.
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    Polymer bulletin 35 (1995), S. 641-648 
    ISSN: 1436-2449
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    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary The low temperature relaxation of epoxy resin modified with siloxane oligomers was investigated by using thermally stimulated current (TSC) and relaxation map analysis (RMA). The β-relaxation of epoxy resin and the glass transition temperature of siloxane oligomer were folded and shifted to higher temperature as the concentration of trifluoropropyl (TFP) in siloxane oligomer increased. In the systems containing over 50% of TFP a new relaxation peak due to the dipole orientation was observed at around-45°C. As the concentration of TFP increased the compensation temperature (Tc) and the degree-of-disorder (DOD) were increased while the compensation time, τc was decreased.
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    Polymer bulletin 35 (1995), S. 653-658 
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    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary The title monomers were synthesized via Wittig reaction from thujone and pugelone. The monomers were found to react rapidly with cationic initiators at temperatures from -15° to 22°C. The products of these reactions were found to be low molecular weight oligomers. The reaction temperature, presence of solvent or initiator type and concentration seemed to have some effect on the molecular weights of the products obtained.
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    Notes: Summary Poly[(N,N-dicarboxymethyl)allylamine] as a water-soluble polymeric chelating agent was prepared by carboxymethylation of poly(allylamine) (PAA) with chloroacetic acid or bromoacetic acid. The 1H-NMR, IR, and elementary analyses showed that the iminodiacetic group was introduced quantitatively into the amino group of PAA. Chelating properties of this polymeric chelating agent toward Cu2+, Ni2+, Zn2+, and Ba2+ were examined by potentiometric titration.
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    Notes: Summary N-Vinyl phthalamide was copolymerized with methyl methacrylate, isobutyl methacrylate or butyl acrylate. The copolymerizations were initiated free radically and it was necessary to conduct the polymerizations in solution or else insoluble products would result. In most cases the polymerizations preceded to relatively high conversions in a short time. The conversions necessitated the use of high conversion methods to calculate the reactivity ratios. The N-vinyl phthalamide was found to be the less reactive monomer in all cases. As part of this study, poly(N-vinyl phthalamide) homopolymer was synthesized by free radical initiation. While the 1H-NMR spectrum yield very little information concerning polymer stereochemistry, the methine carbon resonance in the 13C-NMR spectrum displayed a sensitivity to polymer stereochemistry.
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    Polymer bulletin 35 (1995), S. 671-676 
    ISSN: 1436-2449
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary Three new monomers for cyclopolymerization were synthesized using phase transfer catalysis of ethyl α-(chloromethyl) acrylate (ECMA), t-butyl α-(bromomethyl) acrylate (TBBMA) and isobornyl α-(bromomethyl)acrylate (IBBMA) with cinnamic acid sodium salt. Bulk and solution polymerization at 70–80°C using AIBN gave soluble cyclopolymers with Mn=13650 and Mw=36540 for the ethyl ester, Mn=47700 and Mw=86900 for the t-butyl ester and Mn=3500 and Mw=4650 for the isobornyl ester monomer. The ester polymerizabilities decreased with increasing substituent bulkiness. FTIR spectra showed ca 30 to 93% cyclic units depending on the concentration of the monomer used in polymerizations. DSC thermograms showed that alkyl group size had little effect on Tg's, with values of 151°C, 156°C, and 164°C for the ethyl, t-butyl and isobornyl esters, respectively.
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    Polymer bulletin 35 (1995), S. 683-689 
    ISSN: 1436-2449
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    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary A novel well-defined macromonomer consisting of different types of monomers in polymerization mechanisms was synthesized for the first time through the SmI2-induced transformation. The macromonomer, ω-methacryloylpoly-(tetrahydrofuran-b-ε-caprolactone), was prepared by the reaction of methacryloyl chloride with living poly(tetrahydrofuran-b-ε-caprolactone) [poly(THF-b-CL)] which was obtained by the two-electron reduction of the cationic growing center of poly(THF) by samarium iodide (SmI2) followed by the polymerization of CL. 1H NMR analysis indicated the quantitative introduction of the methacryloyl group onto the polymer end. The molecular weight distribution of the macromonomer was relatively narrow, and the unit ratio of THF to CL could be controlled by both polymerization time of THF and the amount of CL, resulting from the living nature of both CL- and THF-polymerizations. Radical copolymerization of the produced macromonomers with methyl methacrylate in the presence of AIBN resulted in a polymethacrylate backbone grafted with poly(THF-b-CL) block copolymers.
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  • 78
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    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary Poly[2-(2-(4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl)ethenyl)-5-methoxy-1,4-phenylenevinylene] (PFEMPV) and a series of PPV copolymers containing 1,4-phenylenevinylene (PV) units were synthesized through a water-soluble precursor route, and their electrical and third-order nonlinear optical properties were studied. The PFEMPV films could not be doped with I2, but FeCl3-doped films showed an electrical conductivity of 5.0x10-4 S/cm. The conductivities of FeCl3-doped copolymer films ranged from 2.0x10-3 to 2.0 S/cm depending on their copolymer compositions. The third-order nonlinear optical susceptibility, χ(3)(−ω;ω,ω,−ω), was also investigated by the degenerate four wave mixing technique at 602 nm. The χ(3) value of PFEMPV was 6.9x10-11 esu. The photoluminescence spectrum of PFEMPV shows its emission maximum at 550 nm.
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  • 79
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    Polymer bulletin 35 (1995), S. 705-710 
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    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary A new route for the preparation of soluble fullerenated polymer through the reaction of carbanion intermediates of polymers with fullerenes, particularly C60, is demonstrated. Confirmation of the covalent attachment of C60 to the polystyrene backbone is by a variety of techniques such as UV-Vis, FT-IR, TGA, SEM and 13C NMR etc. The product, which has a visibly brownish yellow cast when compared with the unreacted polymer, is soluble in some common organic solvents. The thermal stability of pure polystyrene is enhanced by C60-chemical modification, and no bonds within the carbon sphere are broken.
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    Polymer bulletin 35 (1995), S. 711-718 
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    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
    Notes: Summary The title monomer was polymerized in solution via free radical initiation. The polymer's 300 MHz 1H-NMR and 75.5 MHz 13C-NMR spectra were recorded and analyzed in terms of polymer stereochemistry. Most of the resonances in both the 1H-NMR and 13C-NMR spectra showed multiplicity consistent with sensitivity to polymer stereochemistry. However the 13C-NMR spectrum proved somewhat easier to interpret. The analysis of both the 1H-NMR and 13C-NMR spectra very strongly indicate that poly(3-methyl-1-vinylpyrazole) is an atactic polymer.
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  • 81
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 167-194 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Low-frequency modes of the monsoon are examined in the context of their radiation balance and diagnosed for the 13-month period between May 1979 and May 1980 using Earth radiation budget and cloud measurements taken by experiments carried on board the Nimbus-7 satellite. Simultaneous observations of the albedo, longwave radiation, absorbed shortwave radiation, and net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and the total cloud fraction and cloud-top temperature are considered. The use of broad-band radiation budget measurements permits a description of the observed longwave, shortwave, and net radiative energy exchange by the low-frequency modes. When wavenumber one fields are considered, the entire morphology of the 1979 summer monsoon (pre-onset, onset, break, re-intensification, and withdrawal) can be fully explained in terms of an eastward propagating mode. Ridge passages occurred over the Arabian Sea and India in June prior to onset, during the July break, and during the retreat of the monsoon. Trough passages occurred prior to the onset during a period of increased tropical cyclone activity, at the time of the onset, and immediately following the break. These low-frequency waves can be unambiguously tracked around the world over extended time periods. The latitudinal structure of the waves indicated that a thermally direct Hadley Cell perturbation propagated eastward with the oscillation. These cells were evident from extratropical extensions of the oscillation, each about 180° of longitude out-of-phase with the tropical oscillation. Because the absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radrative components are in phase and of nearly identical amplitudes, the net radiative effect of the low-frequency mode is small in general. However, in certain latitudinal belts, the passage of the waves induced perturbations in the net radiation. Because longwave cloud-radiative forcing acts in the same direction as latent heat release, it is able to contribute to the diabatic energetics maintaining the structure and propagation of the eastward propagating 30- to 60-day waves. Between trough and ridge, the TOA longwave flux varies in a coherent manner by on the order of 50 to 60 Wm−2.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 153-165 
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    Notes: Summary The interannual variability of the monthly mean upper layer thickness for the central Arabian Sea (5°N-15° N and 60° E-70° E) from a numerical model of the Indian Ocean during the period 1954–1976 is investigated in relation to Indian monsoon rainfall variability. The variability in the surface structure of the Somali Current in the western Arabian Sea is also briefly discussed. It is found that these fields show a great deal of interannual variability that is correlated with variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. Model upper layer thickness (H) is taken as a surrogate variable for thermocline depth, which is assumed to be correlated with sea surface temperature. In general, during the period 1967 to 1974, which is a period of lower than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper ocean warm water sphere is thicker (deeper thermocline which implies warmer surface water); in contrast, during the period 1954–1966, which is a period of higher than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper warm water sphere is thinner (shallower thermocline which implies cooler surface water). The filtered time series of uppper layer thickness indieates the presence of a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the wet monsoon period, but this QBO signal is conspicuously absent during the dry monsoon period. Since model H primarily responds to wind stress curl, the interannual variability of the stress curl is investigated by means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes represent more than 72% of the curl variance. The spatial patterns for these modes exhibit many elements of central Arabian Sea climatology. Features observed include the annual variation in the intensity of the summer monsoon ridge in the Arabian Sea and the annual zonal oscillation of the ridge during pre- and post-monsoon seasons. The time coefficients for the first EOF amplitude indicate the presence of a QBO during the wet monsoon period only, as seen in the ocean upper layer thickness. The variability in the model upper layer thickness is a passive response to variability in the wind field, or more specifically to variability in the Findlater Jet. When the winds are stronger, they drive stronger currents in the ocean and have stronger curl fields associated with them, driving stronger Ekman pumping. They transport more moisture from the southern hemisphere toward the Indian subcontinent, and they also drive a greater evaporative heat flux beneath the Findlater Jet in the Arabian Sea. It has been suggested that variability in the heat content of the Arabian Sea drives variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. The results of this study suggest that the opposite is true, that the northern Arabian Sea responds passively to variability in the monsoon system.
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  • 83
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    Notes: Summary The role of organized tropical storms and typhoons within the West Pacific-Indian Ocean dipole of low frequency activity is examined with the aid of INSAT satellite observations. Two Asian summer monsoon seasons-1984 and 1987-are analyzed in conjunction with a satellite derived convective index. The former year was noted as an above average Indian monsoon; the latter year as an extreme Indian monsoon failure. The analysis demonstrates that the dipole region is actually an organized collection of seven smaller scale high amplitude, low frequency centers which blur together to form the semblance of a dipole which had been originally identified in 2.5° resolution outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data derived from NOAA satellite measurements. The centers are basically situated over oceanic regions in the eastern and western sectors of the dipole, although, an isolated high amplitude center is also found over central Tibet. Of considerable interest is that the locations of the seven centers, whereas not equivalent, are very similar for both the 1984 and 1987 seasonsinar. The analysis indicates that there are coherent phase relationships between the eastern sector of the dipole and the western sector, but that it is not a simple dipole-like process. Rather, the four high amplitude centers, within the western sector, all fall within a longitudinal channel in which the well known, northward propagating behavior of Monsoon convection anomalies serves to modulate the east-west phase lag along the meridional channel. The result is that the western paelfic phase lags the equatorial Indian Ocean center whereas it generally phase leads the more northern centers within the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. In the two years studied here, there is little evidence of east-west propagation of anomalies between he two centers. The contribution of organized tropical storms and cyclones to the amplitude and phase characteristics of the high amplitude centers is irregular but important, particularly in the eastern sector of the dipole, where up to 50% of the variance can be explained by organized storms. It is also shown that the influence of storms on the phase propagation characteristics of convective anomalies is irregular but significant.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 219-250 
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    Notes: Summary In this paper we have studied the low frequency variability of the sensible and latent heat flux over the Indian monsoon area. We have used an atmospheric energy budget (vertical integrated heat sources and moisture sinks), as well as the similarity theory in order to compute the surface fluxes on a darly basis. Mainly, the three following data sets were used: the First GARP Global Experiment analyzed data, the TIROS-N outgoing longwave radiation data and the Monsoon Experiment precipitation data. Our three main findings are the following. First, the variability of the temperature and the specific humidity at the surface is more important over the land than over the sea on the intraseasonal time scale (30% over land, but 20% over sea). For the wind an energy peak appears clearly around 30–40 days. The surface fluxes show an uneven variance percentage field (10% to 40%); the energy peaks stretch from 10 to 40 days. Second, the wind has a significant influence on the surface fluxes, except at some locations exclusively over the land areas. Of the temperature and the specific humidity, the temperature is the one which influences the fluxes the most. (This influence may be very strong over land.) The specific humidity may have a significant influence, over the land and sea, at the same time. Thus, one cannot neglect the influence of temperature and specific humidity over land on the intraseasonal time scale. Third, we have found a close relation between the propagation of low frequency waves and the propagation of surface flux patterns. This may suggest a feedback mechanism which relates surface processes to the northward propagation of these waves over India.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 265-279 
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    Notes: Summary Using a General Circulation Model developed at FSU (FSUGCM), the role of the diabatic heating on the 30–60-day oscillation is investigated. To concentrate on the radiation and the moist convection processes, an aqua planet model is employed in this paper. We have obtained a 40-day oscillation with relatively lower frequency than other GCMs without strong heating in the lower troposphere. Unlike some GCMs and simple models, the convective area does not move eastward along with the oscillation. Adiabatic cooling due to the upward motion is mostly compensated by diabatic heating. This implies that Kelvin CISK theory might not explain our 40-day oscillation. We have also examined the impact of radiative heating on the low frequency oscillation. When we reduce the radiative cooling rate, our 40-day mode does not appear and a Kelvin CISK mode appears with a faster phase speed. The impact of the different convection schemes is also investigated. With an enhanced convection scheme, zonal wave number two with a 40-day period is generated.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 281-292 
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    Notes: Summary The present paper discusses the build-up, the air mass transformation and the propagation of the Siberian high as well as its relations to the development of cold surges in East Asia. It has been found that (1) the genesis and development of the Siberian high result from the combined effects of the mass convergence at middle and upper-level and the radiative cooling; (2) the apparent transformation of the Siberian high over land is observed in winter, which is caused by the upward sensible heat and latent heat flux from the underlying surface; (3) the Siberian high and its attendant cold air outbreaks usually undergo a marked low-frequency, southward propagation with the period of 10–20 days; (4) activity of cold surge over the East China Sea and the South China Sea is closely related to the intensity of the Siberian high. The active cold surge occurs when the Siberian high is usually strong.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 251-263 
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    Notes: Summary The Indian summer monsoon, one of the earth's most vigorous and energetic seasonally occurring weather events, influences the global atmospheric circulation. Its onset, duration, and intensity are governed by large- and meso-scale geophysical processes, such as surface solar heating and air-sea interactions. In this paper, using innovative combinations of satellite sensor data, we investigate some of these fundamental processes which are closely tied to clouds and control the monsoon system's evolution. The study, which focuses on the monsoon period of June, 1979, examines the low-frequency variability of clouds and their effects on air-sea processes through an analysis of the complex influence clouds play on the surface heat and water budgets. First, the effects of clouds on both the solar and longwave components of the surface radiation budget are assessed using a cloud radiative forcing parameter. While the effects of clouds on the long-wave irradiance act in a manner opposite to their effects on the shortwave irradiance, only a partial compensation is found to take place and the net effect results in a maximum cloud forcing of 60 Wm−2 in the southwestern Arabian Sea. Second, employing satellite-derived precipitation and evaporation estimates, the paper analyzes the net surface fresh water budget variability around the monsoon onset. This budget is important in that fresh water affects the upper ocean density distribution and, consequently, the thermohaline circulation. Two regions are found to dominate the analysis: the western Arabian Sea, where evaporation is dominant by more than 10 mm day−1, and the eastern Arabian Sea, where precipitation is dominant by more than 10 mm day−1. Thus, a strong zonal gradient of fresh water at the surface is established during the monsoon. The last topic investigated is the intraseasonal variability of convection as analyzed using a cloud parameter indicative of deep convection. Cloud oscillations of 30–50 days, associated with the different phases of the monsoon, are found to propagate northward in the eastern Indian Ocean and eastward in the Bay of Bengal. Our analysis not only supports the hypothesis that the 30–50-day oscillation is driven by deep convection but also, and more importantly, suggests that the ocean thermal forcing is modulated by 30–50-day oscillations through cloud-induced surface radiative forcing. Although the results presented are limited in scope and preliminary because of the diffculty in quantifying the accuracy of the parameters examined, they do demonstrate: 1) the role of clouds in modulating the surface heat and water budgets, 2) the advantage of using combinations of multi-sensor and multi-platform satellite observations to quantify interrelated surface heat/water budget processes, and 3) the potential to examine the intraseasonal variability of air-sea interaction processes associated with the monsoon, even though these processes are not directly measurable from space.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 47 (1992), S. 107-115 
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    Notes: Summary A number of cut-off processes are investigated, with the Alpine region in most cases lying at the margins of these upper lows. Our aim was to determine whether the thermal front parameter (TFP) can be used to objectively define the areas of bad weather from analysis charts and prognostic charts. An attempt is made to formulate two synoptic “guidelines”, for the eastern Alpine region, on front-sides and northern margins of upper lows, into objective synoptic rules.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 47 (1992), S. 127-144 
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    Notes: Summary This study examined ECMWF operational analyses of the outflow layer of two tropical cyclones (Allen, 1980; Elena, 1985) during their passage across the Atlantic and Caribbean. Wind fields and related derived quantities were compared to those from objective analyses of specialized data sets. Errors in center position and storm motion from the ECMWF analyses were also evaluated. Analyses of wind and angular momentum flux in 1985, subsequent to upgrading of the operational model, were superior to those from 1980. High-resolution, uninitialized analyses from 1985, however, provided no advantages over lower resolution, initialized analyses for the same time period. For all ECMWF analyses, azimuthally averaged (mean) tangential velocity, and thus mean vorticity, were well represented. Mean radial velocity and mean divergence were poorly represented. Problems with the latter arose primarily due to underestimation of outflow, especially in the 1980 analyses. Azimuthaleddy fluxes of angular momentum in the ECMWF analyses quantitatively differed from but qualitatively resembled, the control analyses. Vorticity maxima at 850 mb in the operational analyses most accurately defined the center position of the storms, with a mean error less than or equal to one grid point. In contrast, surface pressure minima failed to provide reliable estimates. Over open ocean and at early stages of storms, analysis quality was uneven, with occasional large position errors and widely varying locations of vorticity maxima in the vertical. Nevertheless, in regions surrounded by even a few rawinsondes, such as the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, ECMWF analyses contained sufficient information to allow individual case studies of the tropical cyclone environment. In the same regions, estimates of the eddy flux convergence of angular momentum were found to be accurate enough to aid in operational hurricane intensity prediction. Enhancements in resolution and model initialization at ECMWF since 1985 should further improve operational analyses of the tropical cyclone environment.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 47 (1992), S. 205-227 
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    Notes: Summary This paper describes the evolution of two thunderstorms which developed over northeastern Colorado on 23 July 1983, and more significantly discusses the possible causal relationship between them. In particular, a disturbance apparently created by the first thunderstorm, which developed over the eastern slopes of the Rocky mountains, seems to have triggered the second thunderstorm, which developed further east over the high plains. We present evidence that suggests that the disturbance is a rapidly propagating gravity wave (possibly a solitary wave of depression) that occupied most of the troposphere and was generated by the explosive convective development of the first thunderstorm. Detailed observations of the interactions between these two storms were possible because both storms developed over a dense network of automated weather stations that provided high temporal and spatial resolution surface measurements of pressure, temperature, precipitation, and horizontal wind velocity. Also located within this mesonetwork was a high power 915 MHz wind profiler that provided radial velocities throughout most of the troposphere. These measurements were supplemented with GOES visible and infrared satellite imagery and operational data from National Weather Service rawinsondes and weather radars.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 47 (1992), S. 237-245 
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    Notes: Summary Problems of turbulent dissipation of a cold air lake (CAL) and the inversion layer bordering CAL on the upper boundary are presented and studied with the compound model. In wintertime such cold air lakes can persist for days even if rather strong winds are blowing above them. The required conditions for CAL dissipation are removed processes of its formation or maintenance, as well as a sufficiently strong invasion of turbulence in the inversion layer from above down-wards. By this, the inversion layer at first becomes stronger and dissipation is stopped, until the increase of turbulent kinetic energy of the upper flow enables further dissipation. Such turbulent dissipation process is shown by the model for typical conditions and for different initial values of the relevent variables.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 47 (1992), S. 259-265 
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    Notes: Summary THETAPLOT is a diagram useful for the display and analysis of atmospheric thermodynamic soundings, particularly in relation to conditionally and convectively instable summertime weather situations. The basic coordinates of THETAPLOT are the equivalent potential temperature and the negative logarithm of pressure. The body of the diagram contains families of curves of constant potential temperature, mixing ratio and temperature. From any given sounding, three curves are plotted on the diagram: 1) Theta-ed, the equivalent potential temperature of air saturated at its dew point temperature; 2) Theta-e, equivalent potential temperature; and 3) Theta-es, the saturated equivalent potential temperature. The winds are plotted along the margin of the diagram.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 49 (1992), S. 187-207 
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    Notes: Summary This paper is concerned with the simulation of deep convection for the CCOPE 19 July 1981 case study. Clark's three-dimensional (3D) cloud model modified to use the bulk water parameterization scheme of Lin et al. has been used in the simulation of the CCOPE 19 July 1981 case in coarse mesh, fine mesh, and interactive grid nested schemes, respectively. Comparisons with observations show this 3D grid nested cloud model is capable of both capturing both the dynamic and microphysical properties of the cloud. In the nested grid fine mesh model simulation, the timing and mode of cloud growth, the diameter of liquid cloud, the cloud top rate of rise, the maximum cloud water content, and the altitude of first radar echo are consistent with observations. The simulated thunderstorm begins to dissipate, after precipitation reaches the ground as indicated by the decreasing values of maximum updraft and maximum liquid cloud water content, and ends as a precipitating anvil as was observed in the actual thunderstorm. The model precipitation developed through ice phase processes consistent with the analysis of observations from the actual thunderstorm. Qualitative comparisons of the actual radar RHIs with simulated reflectively patterns from the 3D model show remarkable similarity, especially after the mature stage is reached. Features of the actual RHI patterns, such as the weak echo region, upshear anvil bulge, strong upwind reflectivity gradients, and the upwind outflow region near the surface are reproduced in the simulation. Comparison of the actual radar PPIs with horizontal cross sections of radar reflectivity simulated by the 3D model, however, show modest differences in the storm size with the 3D simulated thunderstorm being 1–2 km longer in the west-east direction than the actual thunderstorm. The model-predicted maximum updraft speed is smaller than the 2D model-predicted maximum updraft speed, but still greater than what was observed. Comparisons among the nested grid fine mesh model (MB), nested grid coarse mesh model (MA), fine mesh model (FM), coarse mesh model (CM), and 2D model results previously published show that the nested grid fine mesh model (MB) gives the best simulation result. The various 3D model simulation results are generally similar to each other except for the difference in the domain maximum values. The domain maximum values in the fine mesh models (MB and FM) are generally higher than the coarse mesh models as a result of averaging over a smaller area.
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  • 94
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    Notes: Summary The Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model is a widely used research tool that has been applied in a wide variety of real-data, mesoalpha-scale applications. Recently a nonhydrostatic version of this model has been developed by Dudhia (1993). It is the purpose of this paper to illustrate the capabilities of this modeling system by describing four examples of mesobeta-scale simulations: two of the cases involve maritime processes and two deal with continental weather events. All utilize fully three-dimensional sets of initial conditions that are based on real data, both standard data and from special measurements programs. One case employs the model in a data-assimilation configuration, wherein Newtonian relaxation terms are used in the equations to assimilate data from a variety of platforms. This example of nonhydrostatic four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is performed for the purpose of generating a dynamically consistent four-dimensional data-set, however the same procedure can be used for model initialization. The first case, described in section 2, involves the simulation of a coastal front that forms offshore near the western edge of the Gulf Stream. In the second case, described in section 3, the model is used in the FDDA mode to define the mesobeta-scale windfield over the complex terrain of the region around Grand Canyon, Arizona. In sections 4 and 5 will be described the mesobeta-scale structure of cold fronts, one within a marine cyclone, and another near the Rocky Mountains.
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  • 95
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    Notes: Summary Hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic simulation models are employed to study the intensification of a terrain drag-induced dryline. The study develops a multi-stage theory for the evolution of the dryline including the concentration of potential vorticity accompanying meso-gamma scale dryline “bulges”. The numerical simulations indicate three fundamental stages of dryline intensification all of which are either directly or indirectly a result of the terrain-drag on the mid/upper-tropospheric jet stream by the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The first stage involves the downward momentum flux accompanying a large amplitude hydrostatic mountain wave which induces a downslope windstorm along the lee slopes. The surge of momentum (i.e., the dry, warm air associated with the downslope windstorm) propagates down the leeslope and modifies an existing weak dryline boundary. As the downslope windstorm initiates an undular bore along the lee slopes, the high momentum gradient which propagates downstream accompanying the bore, as well as the strong lower tropospheric sinking motions ahead of the bore, contract the scale of the surface moisture boundary between the dry air from above the leeslope and the moist air over the High Plains. This process further strengthens the dryline. The second stage involves the coupling of the terrain drag-induced along-stream ageostrophic front within the midtroposphere to the boundary layer through a thermally-indirect circulation. As the along-stream ageostrophic circulation intensifies within the middle troposphere down-stream from the mountain wave, sinking air parcels originating above 40 kPa descend to below 60 kPa over the High Plains where surface pressures are, only ∼85 kPa. These descending air parcels within the upstream branch of the along-stream ageostrophic thermally-indirect circulation contain high values of momentum and very low dewpoint values. As the planetary boundary layer (PBL) deepens due to surface warming during the morning hours, momentum and dry air from the midtropospheric along-stream ageostrophic front are entrained into the PBL. This process amplifies the bore-induced hydrostatic dryline bulge via low-level ageostrophic confluence. Finally, regions of low Richardson number (arising from strong vertical shears) within the amplifying midtropospheric along-stream ageostrophic thermally-indirect circulation become preferred regions for the development of non-hydrostatic evanescent internal gravity waves. These waves are embedded within the hydrostatic along-stream front above the low-level dryline and are accomapanied by very significant values of vertical momentum flux which act to focus the meso-gamma scale structure of the dryline into smaller scale bulges where low-level winds and vorticities are very high. This meso-gamma scale process follows the hydrostatic tilting and vortex tube stretching which creates meso-beta scale maxima of mid-lower tropospheric vorticity. The turbulent momentum fluxes accompanying wavebreaking within the nonhydrostatic dryline bulge create very large (i.e., stratospheric values of) potential vorticity near 70 kPa due to the nonconservation of potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 49 (1992), S. 229-254 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary A nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone is performed with explicit representation of cumulus on a meso-β scale grid and for a brief period on a meso-γ scale grid. Individual cumulus plumes are represented by a combination of explicit resolution and a 1.5 level closure predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). The results demonstrate a number of expected and unexpected important scale interaction processes. Within the central core of the developing cyclone, meso-β convective regions grow and breakdown into propagating inertiagravity waves throughout the lifecycle of the cyclone. In the early stages, the amplitude of pressure fluctuations associated with the meso-β scale convection exceed the central pressure of the cyclone and strongly modulate its intensity. With each meso-β scale pulsation, the cyclone core increases in strength, measured by the central pressure deficit. The increasingly strong inertial frequency of the storm core acts to increasingly trap the convection induced heating within the core by balancing the tangential wind against the low central pressure, before the meso-β scale convection breaks down and sends the warmth away as a propagating wave. Eventually, the slow manifold's amplitude exceeds the amplitude of the meso-β scale oscillations and a stable eye region is formed. As inertial instability increases, increasingly high thermal warmth can be protected in the core, allowing persistent subsidence to form and to clear out the cyclone eye. On the outside of the eye wall, strong inertial stability gradients in the troposphere cause convective warming to split the inflow to the eye wal! and spawn outwardly propagating inertia gravity waves. These waves carry away all of the heating forced by convection that is not inertially trapped by the eye wall and act as a moderating influence on storm intensity. Inertia gravity waves are also spawned in the stratosphere at the top of the eye wall by the revolution of asymmetric cumulus structures. In all instances, the tropospheric waves are coupled to the propagating stratospheric waves which both move at 35 ms−1, although there are many instances where the stratospheric waves seem to have no tropospheric counterpart. Hence the anvil top forcing and low level breakdown are linked. The outwardly propagating inertia gravity waves act to initiate outer bands of convection. This initiation is with the assistance of low level boundary layer variations of density related to previous convection and to virga falling from the anvil which moistens and destabilizes the mid levels ofθ e minimum. The convection initiated by these waves does not move substantially outward with the wave, although may appear to develop outward discontinuously.
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  • 97
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 50 (1992), S. 75-88 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The set of fully compressible nonhydrostatic equations governing a broad spectrum of atmospheric motion was transformed fromz coordinates to sigma coordinates under a hydrostatic base state. The hydrostatic base state may be either time-independent, such as a hydrostatic balance with-out motion or with motion such as a thermal wind balance, or time-dependent such as might be obtained from the result of integrating a hydrostatic model. The transformed set of equations can be used to predict and study all scales of at mospheric phenomena. The set of perturbation equations was also derived under the same condition. The computational sensitivity in computation of pressure gradient force in sigma coordinate can be improved by computing the pressure gradient interms of perturbations under a certain hydrostatic state. The hydrostatic regional spectral model developed by Juang and Kanamitsu (1991) was modified to be a nonhydrostatic spectral model based on the nonhydrostatic equations in sigma coordinates with time-dependent hydrostatic base states. A semi-implicit time integration scheme was used. Two experiments were performed to test this nonhydrostatic spectral model with acceptable results.
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  • 98
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 50 (1992), S. 61-73 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Most finite-difference numerical weather prediction models employ vertical discretizations that are staggered, and are low-order (usually second-order) approximations for the important terms such as the derivation of the geopotential from the hydrostatic equation, and the calculation of the vertically integrated divergence. In a sigma-coordinate model the latter is used for computing both the surface pressure change and the vertical velocity. All of the above-mentioned variables can diminish the accuracy of the forecast if they are not calculated accurately, and can have an impact on related quantities such as precipitation. In this study various discretization schemes in the vertical are compared both in theory and in practice. Four different vertical grids are tested: one unstaggered and three staggered (including the widely-used “Lorenz” grid). The comparison is carried out by assessing the accuracy of the grids using vertical numerics that range from second-order up to sixth-order. The theoretical part of the study examines how faithfully each vertical grid reproduces the vertical modes of the governing equations linearized with a basic state atmosphere. The performance of the grids is evaluated for 2nd, 4th and 6th-order numerical schemes based on Lagrange polynomials, and for a 6th-ordercompact scheme. Our interpretation of the results of the theoretical study is as follows. The most important result is that the order of accuracy employed in the numerics seems to be more significant than the choice of vertical grid. There are differences between the grids at second-order, but these differences effectively vanish as the order of accuracy increases. The sixth-order schemes all produce very accurate results with the grids performing equally well, and with the compact scheme significantly outperforming the Lagrange scheme. A second major result is that for the number of levels typically used in current operational forecast models, second-order schemes (which are used almost universally) all appear to be relatively poor, for other than the lowest modes. The theoretical claims were confirmed in practice using a large number (100) of forecasts with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre's operational model. By comparing “test” model forecasts using the four grids and the different orders of numerics with very high resolution “control” model forecasts, the results of the theoretical study seem to be corroborated.
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  • 99
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 50 (1992), S. 127-142 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Convective to planetary scale processes govern the motion and structure of tropical storms. A model with a high resolution and a large domain is required for accurate prediction of a storm's track and intensity. A series of integrations are performed using a primitive equation model and an initial state that defines a tropical storm that later developed into a hurricane in the real atmosphere. Increasing the horizontal resolution or domain of the model improves the forecast track. However only the increase in the horizontal resolution produces a better hurricane structure. Banded structure in the vertical motion field, asymmetries in the low tropospheric winds similar to those observed and upper tropospheric cyclonic outflow develop in high horizontal resolution experiments. It is shown that horizontal advection and pressure gradient terms produce wind tendencies in the low troposphere that displace the vortex in the observed direction. A high pressure area surrounding the central low pressure area appears in the upper troposphere. Around this high pressure area large pressure gradients develop that induce outflow winds in the distal storm area.
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  • 100
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 50 (1992), S. 105-126 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary In this paper we present some recent work on typhoon prediction with a high resolution global model. The emphasis of this paper is on typhoon recurvature. Here we include examples of successful typhoon recurvature track forecasts made from a very high resolution global spectral model. The main objective of this study however is to go beyond the forecasts, i.e. to interrogate the history tapes and to diagnose residue-free budgets of the divergence and vorticity. The premise of this paper is that the recurvature of the typhoons depends on both the usual advection of vorticity by the layer mean winds and the advection of divergence in the outflow layers of the storm. The region immediately outside the heavy rain area of the storm experiences large values of divergent outflows which contribute a significant advection of divergence. Through the Dine's compensation this region must, in consort, experience an enhancement of low level convergence and of deep convection, thus contributing to the storm motion. We distinguish two facets of storm motion and recurvature, one based on the conventional steering that invokes the advection of vorticity by a vertical integrated flow, the other is the generation mechanism proposed here. During recurvature the storm appears to move in a direction which is influenced by the rotational and the divergent flow dynamics. Increased vertical resolution in the outflow layer is shown to resolve stronger amplitudes in the outflow layer divergence and thus to contribute to improved forecasts of recurvature. A number of processes seem to simultaneously evolve, these include the strong advection of divergence part of the wind, enhancement of cumulus convection over this region, an enhancement of lower tropospheric convergence, generation of vorticity of the lower troposphere and the attendant recurvature.
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