ALBERT

Notes: There has been much speculation about the future of work in moods ranging from euphoria to prophecies of doom. This article attempts to outline the undercurrents of change which will determine the reality behind this debate. It is based on analyses conducted for Work and Society, The Other Economic Summit and the Society for International Development.

Notes: Here the authors summarise the responses to new technology by employers, trade unions and governments from an international perspective and they identify the emerging trends on job displacement, workforce adjustment and new skill requirements in Western industrialised countries.

Notes: This article investigates effects of computerization in the Swedish insurance industry from 1960–1980. While the technological imperative dictates that many jobs would disappear, it was found that employment actually increased. The authors produce a model relating technology to employment levels and suggest that a range of moderating factors must be considered.

Notes: There is little systematic survey evidence so far on the attitudes and beliefs of those involved with new technology in small batch manufacturing. Here the authors present findings on the responses of management, trade unions and employees in an Advanced Manufacturing Technology (AMT) work environment.

Notes: ‘High Technology’ firms constitute a significant growth sector in the UK. Such firms are often assumed to be non-union, with a paternalist style of management, providing a striking contrast to traditional industrial relations practices. Here the author assesses the current evidence.

Notes: This article examines how works councils in the West German automobile industry have influenced management approaches to technological change in three firms. The authors argue that while the post-war industrial relations consensus in Germany can be increasingly questioned, car-makers in the English speaking countries have important lessons to learn from their German counterparts.

Notes: New technology is increasingly being introduced into local government. Using a case study of a shire local authority, the author argues that information technology has already affected employment levels and has enhanced management efficiency.

Notes: Book review in this ArticleThe Management Implications of New Information Technology N. Piercy (ed.)High Technology Small Firms — Innovation and Regional Development in Britain and the United States R. OakeyFuture Work James Robertson Maurice Temple SmithTechnology, Work and Industrial Relations Russell D. Lansbury and Edward M. DavisReport of the Committee of Inquiry into Labour Market Programs Australian Government Publishing Service CanberraJapanese Employment and Employee Relations: An Annotated Bibliography Bill Ford, Millicent Easther and Ann Brewer Australian Government Publishing Service, CanberraTechnology and the Workforce: An Annotated Bibliography Bill Ford, Margaret Coffey and Dexter Dunphy Technology Research Unit, New South Wales Ministry of TechnologyTechnological Change: The Tripartite Response, 1982–85 Hedva Sarfati and Margaret CoveWork in the 1980s. Emanicipation and Derogation Bengt Ove Gustavsson, Jan Ch. Karlsson & Curt Räftegård

Notes: The ‘automated factory’ as the culmination of ingenuity has fascinated engineers and social visionaries (albeit for different reasons) for a considerable period. This article discusses the skill requirements of advanced automated production.

Notes: This article argues that social scientists need to develop a detailed understanding of ‘technology’, and its relationship to social variables, if the full impfication of new technologjes is to be adequately investigated. Material from research on telephone exchange modemisation in British Telecom is used to develop such an approach.

Notes: The United States, together with other advanced industrial societies is having to address the skill and training requirements which stem from occupational change as a result of technological innovation. This article examines the major labor questions for policy-makers in the USA now and in the near future.

Notes: This article discusses the concept of skill and, using material from case studies on non-manual work, suggests that the microelectronic technology may have implications for work and skills that in each case will depend on a combination of social and technological factors.

Notes: The Australian trade union movement has identified new technology as a major issue for the 1980s and beyond. This article examines ACTU policy on technological change in the light of the experience of two large Australian unions.

Notes: Draughtsmen could until recently legitimately be seen as a ‘white-collar craft’ group. This article examines the degree to which Computer-Aided Design is fragmenting the cohesiveness of the drawing office, and thus threatening to undermine the craft control which has been the basis of the strength of the union, AUEW/TASS.

Notes: An understanding of the changes taking place in Singapore's construction industry is not achieved simply by reference to ‘technological imperatives’. Changes in technology, work patterns and employment are closely bound up with the ideological orientations of the ruling elite. This article analyses these changes and examines the implications for the workforce.

Notes: This paper examines two approaches to the study of the implications of technological change for manpower and skill requirements. One is based on the development of taxonomies to classify different levels of automation of industrial processes. The other is based on the study of the competitive dynamics within industrial sectors.

Notes: The Coach system, a computer simulation of a human tutor, was constructed with the goal of obtaining a better understanding of how a tutor interprets the student's behavior, diagnoses difficulties, and gives advice. Coach gives advice to a student who is learning a simple computer programming language. Its intelligence is based on a hierarchy of active schemas that represent the tutor's general concepts and on more specific information represented in a semantic network. The coordination of conceptually guided and data-driven processing enables the Coach system to interpret student behavior, recognize errors, and give advice to the student.

Notes: The input to the described program, in learning mode, consists of examples of starting graph and result graph pairs. The starting graph is transformable into the result graph by adding or deleting certain edges and vertices. The essential common features of the starting graphs are stored together with specifications of the edges and vertices to be deleted or added. This latter information is obtained by mapping each starting graph onto the corresponding result graph. On subsequent input of similar starting graphs without a result graph, the program, in performance mode, recognizes the characterizing set of features in the starting graph and can perform the proper transformation on the starting graph to obtain the corresponding result graph. The program also adds the production to its source code so that after recompilation it is permanently endowed with the new production. If any feature which lacks the property “ordinary” is discovered in the starting graph and only one example has been given, then there is feedback to the user including a request for more examples to ascertain whether the extraordinary property is a necessary part of the situation.

Notes: In this paper, we introduce and initiate a formalism to represent syntactic and semantic features in logic-based grammars. We also introduce technical devices to express feature-checking and feature-inheritance mechanisms. This leads us to propose some extensions to the basic unification mechanism of PROLOG. Finally, we consider the problem of long-distance dependency relations between constituents in gapping grammars rules from the point of view of morphosyntactic features that may change depending on the position occupied by the moved constituents. What we propose is not a new linguistic theory about features, but rather a formalism and a set of tools that we think will be useful to grammar writers to describe features and their relations in grammar rules.

Notes: Book reviewed in this article:The Information Technology Revolution Tom Forester, (ed.)Work, Unemployment and the New Technology Colin Gill, Polity PressThe Robotics Revolution Peter B. Scott.Manufacturing Systems: Context, Applications and Techniques Victor Bignell, Mike Dooner, John Hughes, Chris Pym and Sheila StoneJob Redesign: Critical Perspectives on the Labour Process David Knights, Hugh Wilmott and David Collinson

Notes: In 1983, the Swedish Post Office opened the most technically advanced mail centre in the world. Here the author describes how work is organised in this futuristically designed workplace.

Notes: Abstract: Fossil is an expert system for Palaeontology, written in Prolog. It consists of a knowledge base and three interfaces: a collector's ‘query’ interface; an expert's ‘update’ interface and a student's ‘review’ interface. As such, it covers the major uses of a knowledge base in palaeontology. The underlying model of expert system use and its supporting tools are described. This view is an alternative to that provioded by expert system shells of the Apes type. Such an approach has proved useful in Palaeontology and is likely to be applicable to other areas where the knowledge is arranged taxonomically. The use of Prolog as an implementation tool is briefly discussed.

Notes: Abstract: The use of knowledge engineering in diagnostic systems, is aimed primarily at exploiting procedural knowledge (about: systems operations, configuration, observations, calibration, maintenance), in connection with failure detection and test generation tasks. Next, the goal is to devise knowledge representation schemes whereby the failure events can be analyzed by merging highly diverse sources of information: analog/digital signals, logical variables and test outcomes, text from verbal reports, and inspection images. The final goal is to ease the operator workload when interfacing with the system under test and/or the test equipment, or with reliability assessment software packages. The paper will present key notions, methods and tools from: knowledge representation, inference procedures, pattern analysis. This will be illustrated by reference to a number of current and potential applications for e.g.: electronics failure detection, control systems testing, analysis of intermittent failures, false alarm reduction, test generation, maintenance trainers.

Notes: Abstract: Evaluation of expert systems is an important step in the knowledge engineering process. In recent years, emphasis has been placed on knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, and inferencing mechanisms. However, evaluation, and to a lesser extent, validation, have been slightly overlooked. This paper addresses some of the evaluation techniques that have been used for measuring information systems effectiveness and expert systems effectiveness. Specific attention is focused on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Expert Choice. The evaluation results of an expert system prototype, called ‘Read’, are discussed via the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Expert Choice.

Notes: Abstract: This paper describes a conceptual framework for building expert systems in repair domains. A specific example of the use of this framework in building an expert system for a field service repair problem is given. The example system is designed to assist field service technicians in troubleshooting and repairing electronic systems at the board level. This system, a Field Service Advisor (Fieldserve), is designed (1) to diagnose single or multiple defects in electronic systems, (2) to guide a technician through appropriate repair procedures, (3) to verify diagnoses and monitor repair effectiveness and (4) to maintain records for subsequent evaluation and quality control.

Notes: We describe a shell for expert systems written in Prolog. The shell provides a consultation environment and a range of explanation capabilities. The design of the shell is modular, making it very easy to extend the shell with extra features required by a particular expert system. The novelty of the shell is twofold. Firstly, it has a uniform design consisting of an integrated collection of meta-interpreters. Secondly, there is a new approach for explaining ‘why not,’ when a query to the system fails.

Notes: Default reasoning is analyzed as consisting (implicitly) of at least three further aspects–oracles, jumps, and fixes-which in turn are related to the notion of a belief. Beliefs are then discussed in terms of their use in a reasoning agent. Next an idea of Israel is embellished to show that certain desiderata regarding these aspects of default reasoning lead to inconsistent belief sets, and that as a consequence the handling of inconsistencies must be taken as central to commonsense reasoning. Finally, these results are applied to standard cases of default reasoning formalisms in the literature (circumscription, default logic, and nonmonotonic logic), where it turns out that even weaker hypotheses lead to failure to achieve commonsense default conclusions.

Notes: The primary goal of this paper is to illustrate how smaller deductive search spaces can be obtained by extending a logical language with restricted quantification and tailoring an inference system to this extension. The illustration examines the search spaces for a bottom-up parse of a sentence with a series of four strongly equivalent grammars. The grammars are stated in logical languages of increasing expressiveness, each restatement resulting in a more concise grammar and a smaller search space.A secondary goal is to point out an area where further research could yield results useful to the design of efficient parsers, particularly for grammatical formalisms that rely heavily on feature systems.

Notes: Problem solvers that use heuristics to guide choices often run into untenable situations that can be characterized as overconstrained. When this happens, the problem must be able to identify the right culprit from among its heuristic choices in order to avoid a potentially explosive search. In this paper, we present a solution to this for a certain class of problems where the justifications associated with choice points involve an explicit assessment of the pros and cons of choosing each alternative relative to its competitors. We have designed a problem solver that accumulates such knowledge about the pros and cons of alternative selections at choice points during heuristic search, which it updates in light of an evolving problem situation. Whenever untenable situations arise, this preserved knowledge is used to determine the most appropriate backtracking point. By endowing the backtracker with access to this domain-specific knowledge, a highly contextual approach to reasoning in backtracking situations can be achieved.

Notes: Situation semantics proposes novel and attractive treatments for several problem areas of natural language semantics, such as efficiency (context sensitivity) and prepositional attitude reports. Its focus on the information carried by utterances makes the approach very promising for accounting for pragmatic phenomena. However, situation semantics seems to oppose several basic assumptions underlying current approaches to natural language processing and the design of intelligent systems in general. It claims that efficiency undermines the standard notions of logical form, entailment, and proof theory, and objects to the view that mental processes necessarily involve internal representations. The paper attempts to clarify these issues and discusses the impact of situation semantics’ criticisms for natural language processing, knowledge representation, and reasoning. I claim that the representational approach is the only currently practical one for the design of large intelligent systems, but argue that the representations used should be efficient in order to account for the system's embedding in its environment. The paper concludes by stating some constraints that a computational interpretation of situation semantics should obey and discussing remaining problems.

Notes: Since Colmerauer's introduction of metamorphosis grammars (MGs), with their associated type-O-like grammar rules, there has been a desire to allow more general rule formats in logic grammars. Gap symbols were added to the MG rule by Pereira, resulting in extraposition grammars (XGs). Gaps, which are referenced by gap symbols, are sequences of zero or more unspecified symbols which may be present anywhere in a sentence or in a sentential form. However, XGs imposed restrictions on the position of gap symbols and on the contents of gaps. With the introduction of gapping grammars (GGs) by Dahl, these restrictions were removed but the rule was still required to possess a nonterminal symbol as the first symbol on the left-hand side. This restriction is removed with the introduction of unrestricted gapping grammars. FIGG, a flexible implementation of gapping grammars, possesses a bottom-up parser which can process a large subset of unrestricted gapping grammars. It can be used to examine the usefulness of unrestricted GGs for describing phenomena of natural languages such as free word order and partially free word/constituent order. Unrestricted gapping grammars, as implemented in FIGG, can also be used to describe grammars (or metagrammars) that utilize the gap concept, such as Gazdar's generalized phrase structure grammars.

Notes: This paper reevaluates some of the contributions of Montague grammar in view of the increasing importance of computational considerations in linguistic theory and the demand for linguistic theories that can provide support in the design of natural language systems. It also considers Montague grammar in relation to work on lexical semantics and semantic nets. In this perspective the techniques of Montague grammar for systematically linking syntactic form and a model-theoretic semantics emerge as the most significant feature of the theory, while a number of the specific semantic assumptions recede in importance. Yet, with different ways of thinking about the structure mapping between levels of linguistic form and interpretations (e.g., constraint systems), we can also implement this connection using different techniques from what Montague had at his disposal.

Notes: Researchers developing and validating educational products often expect the same field-test activities to provide information on product improvement and product effectiveness. For effective and economical use of resources, these two goals, product improvement and product validation, must be stressed at different times and with different tools and strategies. This article identifies the difference in procedures and outcome between formative and summative evaluation practices and relates these practices to the development and validation of expert systems in education.

Notes: Most of the recent research on programming languages for education has been centered around the language Logo. In this paper we introduce another candidate language for learning environments, Nial, the nested interactive array language.Nial is a general-purpose programming language based on a formal theory of mathematics called array theory. This paper introduces Nial as a language for learning programming and developing and using computer-aided instruction tools. A comparison with Logo is provided to evaluate these two languages in terms of their strengths and weaknesses as programming environments for novice programmers. We also demonstrate that a programming environment can be both simple to leam at the novice level and extendible to a powerful and sophisticated language.

Notes: This paper describes VP2, a system that has been implemented to tutor nonnative speakers in English. This system differs from many tutoring systems by employing an explicit grammar of its user's native language. This grammar enables VP2 to customize its responses by addressing problems due to interference of the native language. The system focuses on the acquisition of English verb-particle and verb-prepositional phrase constructions. Its correction strategy is based upon comparison of the native language grammar with an English grammar. VP2 is a modular system: its grammar of a user's native language can easily be replaced by a grammar of another language. The problems and solutions presented in this paper are related to the more general question of how modelling previous knowledge facilitates instruction in a new skill.

Notes: ELECTRE is a project to build an intelligent tutoring system for learning basic electricity. This paper describes a student model based on the student's cognitive processes. This model includes, for each student, his/her domain knowledge and the specific heuristics. Moreover, it uses meta-knowledge of problem solving. This model is simulated by a knowledge-based system that controls the solving processes by meta-rules. A case study is presented.

Notes: The focus of this paper is on the underlying knowledge base for an intelligent tutorial system for high-school algebra problems. We present a model of problem solving flexible enough to account for a variety of problem-solving behaviors and general enough to allow new problem domains to be defined easily. The model is based upon the analysis of protocols between students and expert tutors. We show how student errors can be monitored and remediated using the model, and we provide an approach to understanding problem difficulty that can be used to generate challenging problems and also provides a mechanism for planning their solution.

Notes: This paper describes an object recognition algorithm both on a sequential machine and on a single instruction multiple data (SIMD) parallel processor such as the MIT connection machine. The problem, in the way it is presently formulated on a sequential machine, is essentially a propagation of constraints through a tree of possibilities in an attempt to prune the tree to a small number of leaves. The tree can become excessively large, however, and so implementations on massively parallel machines are sought in order to speed up the problem. Two fast parallel algorithms are described here, a static algorithm and a dynamic algorithm. The static algorithm reformulates the problem by assigning every leaf in the completely expanded unpruned tree to a separate processor in the connection machine. Then pruning is done in nearly constant time by broadcasting constraints to the entire SIMD array. This parallel version is shown to run three to four orders of magnitude faster than the sequential version. For large recognition problems which would exceed the capacity of the machine, a dynamic algorithm is described which performs a series of loading and pruning steps, dynamically allocating and deallocating processors through the use of the connection machine's global router communications mechanism.

Notes: We are concerned with developing a computational method for selecting possible antecedents of referring expressions over sentence boundaries. Our stratified model which uses a Λ-categorial language for meaning representation incorporates valuable features of Fregean-type semantics (a la Lewis, Montague, Partee, and others) along with features of situation semantics developed by Barwise and Perry. We consider a series of selected two-sentence stories which we use to illustrate referential interdependencies between sentences. We explain the conditions under which such dependencies arise, explain the conditions under which various translations can be performed, and formalize a set of rules which specify how to compute the reference. We restrict our discussion to two-sentence stories to avoid most of the problems inherent in where to look for the reference, that is, how to determine the proper antecedent. We restrict our considerations in this paper to situations where a reference, if it can be computed at all, has a unique antecedent. Thus we consider examples such as John wants to catch a fish. He (John) wants to eat it. and John interviewed a man. The man killed him (John). We then summarize the transformation which encompasses these rules and relate it to the stratified model. We discuss three aspects of this transformation that merit special attention from the computational viewpoint and summarize the contributions we have made. We also discuss the computational characteristics of the stratified model in general and present our ideas for a computer realization; there is no implementation of the t“ratified model at this time.

Notes: The SCENT (Student Computing ENvironmenT) project is concerned with building an intelligent tutoring system to help student programmers debug their LISP programs. The major thrust of current SCENT investigations is into the design of the SCENT advisor which is meant to provide debugging assistance to novice students. Six conceptual levels constitute the advisor. At the lowest level is the “raw data,” consisting of the student's (possibly buggy) program. This can be interpreted by a “program behaviour” level which can produce traces, cross-reference charts, etc. from the student's program. These traces, etc. can be analyzed by “observers” for interesting patterns. At the next level are “strategy judges” and “diagnosticians” which determine which strategy the student has used in his/her program and bugs in this strategy. A “task expert” provides task-specific input into the process of analyzing the student's solution, and a “student-knowledge component” provides student-specific input into this process. Information from the six levels interacts in a variety of ways and control is similarly hierarchical. This necessitates a blackboard-style scheme to coordinate information dissemination and control flow.This paper discusses the objectives of SCENT and focusses on organizing the process of debugging student programs. A complete example is given to illustrate how entities at the six levels interact and to indicate the kinds of information sharing that occur in the SCENT advisor. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach to automated debugging, and suggestions about directions for further exploration.

Notes: We consider mathematics to be an input into the production of human and knowledge capital in economics. The competitive and the interest group models are analyzed as to their predictions about the efficient use of this input. Many stylized facts are found to be consistent with the interest group model and the implication of an excess use of mathematics. Mathematics in journal articles is shown to have grown significantly during the postwar years. In a survey, 250 economists express the view that there is too much mathematics in professional journals. Only a minority of respondents rejects the view that interest group behaviour is taking place.

Notes: Book reviewed in this ArticleASCHHOFF, GUNTHER und HENNINGSEN, ECKART: Das deutsche GenossenschaftswesenBHATIA, SHAM L.: Technology, Economies of Scale and Gains from Trade and Factor MobilityCANTO, VICTOR A.: The Determinants and Consequences of Trade Restrictions in the US EconomyETTER, CHRISTIAN: Löhne und Beschäftigung im KonjunkturverlaufFREEMAN, CHRISTOPHER (ed.): Long Waves in the World EconomyGORDON-ASHWORTH, FIONA: International Commodity ControlGREENHALGH, C. A.; LAYARD, P. R. G. and OSWALD, A. J. (eds.): The Causes of UnemploymentHECKMAN, JAMES J. and SINGER, BURTON(eds.): Longitudinal Analysis of Labor Market DataJUDGE, GEORGE E. et al: The Theory and Practice of EconometricsKENNEDY, GAVIN: Einladung zur StatistikKIRSCH, WERNER; SCHOLL, WOLFGANG und PAUL, GÜNTER: Mitbestimmung in der UnternehmenspraxisNIESCHLAG, ROBERT; DICHTL, ERWIN und HÖRSCHGEN, HANS: MarketingSCHENKLUHN, BRIGITTE: Konjunkturpolitik und WahlenSCHULTE ZUR SURLAGE, ROLF: Qualifikationsstruktur der ArbeitsnachfrageŠIK, OTA: Ein Wirtschafssystem der ZukunftTAKAYAMA, AKIRA: Mathematical EconomicsUHLIG, CHRISTIAN und LANGE, MICHAEL: Internutionale Produktionskooperation im Vorderen OrientWATERSON, MICHAEL: Economic Theory of the IndustryWELSCH, HEINZ: Wohlfahrtstheorie und Wirtschaftspolitik natürlicher RessourcenWHALLEY JOHN: Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas

Notes: This note demonstrates that PIERO SRAFFA'S wage-profit frontier can be generalized to take into account the real costs of protecting the environment from waste residuals. As such, it is an exercise in theoretical synthesis which draws upon elements of neo-Ricardian theory and environmental economics.

Notes: The ‘truth’ in autobiography depends on the observable historical record of a person's life. The less attractive the observed life, the more ‘truthful’ is the autobiography. This result does not require differential standards of honesty among autobiographers. It does depend on the presupposition that there exists a common value scale along which lives may be judged, and upon the common directional bias toward the ‘good’ in all autobiography.

Notes: People often seem to gain present satisfaction from contemplating a favourable future. This paper examines the implications of such behaviour for expectations formation. Formally, satisfaction is said to be derived from ‘contemplation’ whenever ex post utility depends on expectations independently of their bearing on ex ante actions. Contemplation is shown to be necessary and sufficient for informationally biased forecasting in a model of the intertemporal consumption decision. Thus the MUTH-rationality of expectations requires restrictions on the (derived) preference ordering over expectations and realizations which preclude contemplation. Bias tests of surveyed expectations are given a choice-theoretic interpretation.

Notes: Instead of a relapse into the depression of the 30's, as the stagnationists had foreseen, the end of the war marked the beginning of a quarter of a century of unprecedented growth. The saturation thesis, based on a misperception of human wants, turned out to be wrong, and with innovations and an opening of markets, the apprehended technological and spatial limits to growth were overcome. However, the extraordinary post-war growth eventually met with supply side bottlenecks: excessive wage increases, higher energy and environmental costs, and an inflation-induced waste of capital led to a relative stagnation in the 70's. The growth poles USA and East Asia have extricated themselves more quickly from this stagnation than Europe which suffers from more rigidities and still lacks sufficient downward flexibility of real wages. To revitalize its economy, Europe has to free its markets from state regulations and make them more accessible to domestic and international competition. With a swift trade liberalization, Europe - and the world - could tap a large source of productivity growth. Admittedly, this would go along with a process of creative destruction. In order to facilitate the import-induced decline of old industries, free activity zones should be established in the affected regions.

Notes: The article tries to find out whether the political composition of government in twelve Western European countries had any effect on real growth, unemployment and inflation. The method chosen is to combine year after year the countries in ‘Left’, ‘Right’ and (left and right) coalition groups and then to compare the group results over the period 1960-1984. In the period of high growth and full employment political composition plays a minor part. After 1970 the picture changes: the left group (left and left coalition governments) exhibits consistently higher growth and lower unemployment rates than the right group. With regard to inflation the picture is less clear. There is an indication that coalitions have generally fared better than either ‘pure’ left or ‘pure’ right governments.

Notes: Ideal solutions based on two bargaining models (RAIFFA, NASH) and two moral principles (Utilitarianism, RAWLS'S Difference Principle) are applied to the sharing of the welfare produced in the family between the representative man (M) and representative woman (W). The good produced by the family has a strong element of public good enjoyed by M and W. Two different assumptions are possible regarding the relative efficiency of M and W in producing the public good: (1) The feminist hypothesis: they are equally efficient, (2) The patriarchy hypothesis: men are on the average more dominant than women, and better able to hold upper positions in hierarchies. Hence they are more efficient and are entitled to status. If the feminist hypothesis is correct, M and W should, according to the ethical principles, have equal welfare and should supply equal efforts. However, the bargaining solutions generally adjudge M more welfare than W, mainly because of his higher security level. If one accepts the patriarchy hypothesis, some of the utility which M derives from his status should redound to W's advantage (except under Utilitarianism) so that she is required to supply less effort. Paradoxically, this may mean that M should do more domestic work.

Notes: The ‘softening’ of the budget constraint appears when the strict relationship between the expenditure and the earnings of an economic unit (firm, household, etc.) has been relaxed, because excess expenditure will be paid by some other institution, typically be the paternalistic State. The higher the subjective probability that excess expenditure will be covered by external assistance, the softer the budget constraint. The main focus of the paper is on the firm. There are several ways of ‘softening’ the budget constraint: subsidies, tax-exemptions, soft credits and so on. The softness weakens price responsiveness, leads to losses in efficiency and under certain conditions may generate excess demand. The paper examines the ‘soft budget constraint’ syndrome in Hungary, Yugoslavia, and China, i.e. in the economies pioneering in the introduction of market-oriented decentralization reforms. Socialist economies exhibit a rather extreme degree of this phenomenon, which to a lesser degree can be observed in mixed economies as well.〈section xml:id="abs1-2"〉〈title type="main"〉ZUSAMMENFASSUNGDie “Aufweichung” der Budgetrestriktionen zeigt sich, wenn der enge Zusammen-hang zwischen den Ausgaben und Einnahmen einer Wirtschaftseinheit (Firma, Haus-halt usw.) sich auflockert, weil die Mehrausgabe von einer anderen Institution, im typischen Falle vom paternalistischen Staat gedeckt wird. Je höher die subjektive Wahrscheinlichkeit ist, dass die Mehrausgabe durch eine aussenstehende Hilfsquelle gedeckt wird, um so weicher ist die Budgetrestriktion. Im Mittelpunkt dieser Abhand-lung steht das Unternehmen. Es gibt mehrere Möglichkeiten zur “Aufweichung” der Budgetrestriktion: Subventionen, Steuerfreiheit, weiche Kredite usw. Die Weiche schwächt die Preissensibilität, führt zu Verlusten in der Wirksamkeit, und unter gewissen Umständen kann eine Mehrnachfrage herbeigeführt werden. Die Abhand-lung untersucht das Phanomen der “weichen Budgetrestriktion” in Ungarn, Jugosla-wien und China, das heisst in den Wirtschaften, die in der Einführung von marktorien-tierten Dezentralisationsreformen bahnbrechend sind. Die sozialistischen Wirtschaften weisen einen ziemlich hohen Grad dieses Phänomens auf, das in geringerem Masse auch in gemischten Wirtschaften zu beobachten ist.〈section xml:id="abs1-3"〉〈title type="main"〉RÉSUMÉL'adoucissement” de la contrainte budgétaire apparaît lors du relâchement de la stricte relation entre les dépenses et les recettes d'une unitééconomique (entreprise, ménage…). Cela survient quand l'excés de dépenses est pris en charge par une autre institution, l'exemple type en étant l'Etat-Providence. II existe plusieurs façons “d'adoucir” la contrainte budgétaire: les subventions, les abattements fiscaux, les crédits bonifiés, etc. Cet adoucissement affaiblit la capacityé de réponse par les prix, il conduit à des pertes d'efficacité, et, dans certaines conditions, peut engendrer un excès de demande. On peut contempler le stade ultime de ce phénomène dans les économies socialistes, mais les économies mixtes en présentent certains symptômes.L'auteur examine le syndrôme de “l'adoucissement” de la contrainte budgétaire en Hongrie, en Yougoslavie et en Chine, c'est-à-dire dans les économies socialistes qui, les premierès, ont tenté une certaine décentralisation économique.

Notes: The monetarist model of the balance of payments concludes that payments deficits are caused by inappropriate central bank decisions under the unstated assumption that such institutions are independent and hence that the growth of the domestic assets of the central bank can be viewed as an exogenous or decision variable. It is argued in this paper that this assumption is incorrect for developing countries with relatively primitive or ‘thin’ capital markets. In such countries there is no alternative to financing central government budget deficits through the central bank. As a result such deficits are the true decision variable and ultimately determine the behavior of the balance of payments through their impact on the expansion of the central bank's domestic assets. In countries with more developed financial markets, however, alternative means of financing government budget deficits do exist, and the central bank can more reasonably be viewed as independent.This hypothesis is tested by substituting the government budget deficit for the growth of the central bank's domestic assets in a typical monetarist model of the balance of payments. It is predicted that this substitution will work well for those countries with very limited or underdeveloped capital markets. An index of financial development is then derived and 54 countries are divided into three groups on the basis of the extent of such capital market ‘deepening’. The empirical results support the previously stated hypothesis in that the substitution of the government deficit for the growth of the central bank's domestic assets in a monetarist payments model is successful for those countries with the least developed financial systems, moderately successful for the intermediate group, and decidedly unsuccessful for countries with highly developed capital markets. It is suggested that for most underdeveloped countries the monetarist model of the balance of payments might be better viewed as a fiscal policy model, but that the traditional monetarist model remains relevant for the industrialized countries.〈section xml:id="abs1-2"〉〈title type="main"〉ZUSAMMENFASSUNGDas monetaristische Zahlungsbilanzmodell zeigt, dass Zahlungsbilanzdefizite durch unangebrachte Zentralbankentscheidungen verursacht werden, und zwar unter der impliziten Annahme, dass derartige Institutionen unabhängig seien und daher das Wachstum der inländischen Aktiva als exogen oder Entscheidungsvariable ange-sehen werden kann. Bezugnehmend auf Entwicklungsländer mit verhältnismässig primitiven oder schwachen Kapitalmärkten wird die vorerwähnte Annahme in diesem Papier als unrichtig angesehen. Es gibt in diesen Ländern keine Alternative für die Finanzierung der Haushaltsdefizite der Zentralregierung durch die Zentralbank. Diese Haushaltsdefizite stellen daher die wahre Entscheidungsvariable dar und bestimmen schliesslich das Zahlungsbilanzverhalten durch ihre Auswirkung auf das Wachstum der Inlandsaktiva der Zentralbank. In Lándern mit stárkeren Finanz-márkten gibt es jedoch alternative Möglichkeiten zur Finanzierung von Haushalts-defiziten, und in solch einem Fall kann die Zentralbank schon eher als unabhängig betrachtet werden.Diese Hypothese wird in einem typischen monetaristischen Zahlungsbilanzmodell auf die Probe gestellt, indem das Haushaltsdefizit durch das Wachstum der Inlandsaktiva der Zentralbank ersetzt wird. Es wird angenommen, dass dieser Aus-tausch bei Ländern mit sehr eingeschrankten oder schwach entwickelten Kapitalmarkten erfolgversprechend sein wird. Über die finanzpolitische Entwicklung wird dann ein Index aufgestellt und auf der Grundlage des Ausmasses einer solchen Kapitalmarktkräftigung (deepening) werden 54 Länder in drei Gruppen aufgeteilt. Die vorgenannte Hypothese, nämlich dass der Austausch des Haushaltsdefizits gegen steigende Inlandsaktiva der Zentralbank in einem monetaristischen Zahlungsbilanz-modell für Länder mit schwach entwickelten Finanzsystemen ziemlich erfolgreich ist, sich jedoch weniger erfolgversprechend anlässt für die Ländergruppe mit stärkeren Finanzsystemen, und entschieden erfolglos für Länder mit ausgesprochen starken Kapitalmärkten ist, wird durch die empirischen Ergebnisse untermauert. Es wird darauf hingewiesen, dass das monetaristische Zahlungsbilanzmodell für die Mehrzahl der Entwicklungsländer vorzugsweise als fiskalpolitisches Modell angesehen werden sollte, während für die Industrieländer auch weiterhin das traditionelle monetaristische Modell relevant bleibt.〈section xml:id="abs1-3"〉〈title type="main"〉RÉSUMÉLa théorie monétariste de la balance des paiements suggère que les déficits extérieurs sont causés par des politiques monétaires inadéquates de la banque centrale, en supposant que ces politiques peuvent être considérées comme indépendantes et done exogénes. Cet article maintient qu'une telle supposition ne s'applique pas aux pays en voie de développement avec des marchés financiers peu développés. Dans de tels pays, il n'y a pas d'autre alternative mais de financer les déficits budgétaires par le recours à la banque centrale. Ces déficits sont done les vrais variables de décision et déterminent le comportement de la balance des paiements par leur influence sur l'expansion du crédit par la banque centrale. Dans des pays à marché financiers plus développés, il existe d'autres moyens de financer les déficits budgétaires, et la banque centrale peut done être considérée comme indépendante.L'hypothese considérée ci-dessus est testée en substituant la variable représentant le niveau du déficit budgétaire celle représentant l'expansion du crédit par la banque centrale dans un modéle monétariste de la balance des paiements. L'hypothese est que cette substitution produira des résultats empiriques meilleurs dans le cas des pays à marchés financiers peu développés. L'on dérive par la suite un indice du développement financier sur la base d'une mesure de la “profondeur” des marchés financiers. Les résultats empiriques supportent l'hypothèse avancée dans la mesure où le déficit de la balance des paiements est statistiquement bien expliquée par le variable déficit budgétaire dans le cas des pays à marchés financiers trés peu développés, et mal expliquée dans le cas des pays à marchés financiers trés développés. L'article conclut que pour la plupart des pays en voie de développement, le modèle monétariste s'interprete mieux comme modèle fiscaliste, mais que le modèle monétariste tradi-tionnel reste valable pour les pays industrialisés.

Notes: Marcel Labordère was a little known French economist who died, aged 77, in 1946. He was regarded as an eccentric, a self-educated economist, whose major contact with the economics profession seems to have been through J. M. Keynes and D. H. Robertson. In 1908 he put forward an over-investment theory of the trade cycle; in this the crisis results from a shortage of real saving. The amount of saving in the economy which is available for investment is determined by the accumulated stock of consumer goods. If production is to shift to capital goods, away from consumer goods, the economy must have a stock of consumer goods (real saving) to utilise whilst this shift in production is taking place. The crisis arises where the stock of consumer goods is insufficient to support the amount of investment undertaken in the boom; that is, it is caused by a disproportionate amount of capital goods being produced relative to consumer goods. Although worked out in isolation from A. Spiethoff's theory of crisis, it is somewhat similar to it, but it contrasts with the over-investment theories associated with M. Tugan-Baranowski and A. Aftalion. Labordère's work had a major influence upon D. H. Robertson in his writing of ‘A Study of Industrial Fluctuation’ (1915), one of the foremost British contributions to trade cycle theory.

Notes: Most people except professional academic economists resist or reject the use of the price system. The four main reasons are lack of information, undesirable distributional consequences, unfairness and reluctance to trade, and adverse effects on preferences. The reasons brought forward against the price system are only partly convincing, particularly in comparison to other decision-making systems. The use of the price system may create more problems than traditional neoclassical economics admits. The difficulties and paradoxes connected with the use of the price system provide a challenge to existing economic theory.

Notes: Book reviewed in this ArticleAMEMIYA, TAKESHI: Advanced EconometricsAUGUSTINOVICS, MÁRIA (ed.): Long-Term Models at WorkBIENE, PETER: Die Theorie der optimalen Besteuerung unter wohlfahrtsökonomischen AspektenBÖS, DIETER: Public Enterprise EconomicsEGNER, ERICH: Der Verlust der alten ÖkonomikELTIS, WALTER: The Classical Theory of Economic GrowthFERNANDEZ, RONALD, Excess Profits: The Rise of United TechnologiesGIERSCH, HERBERT und SCHMIDT, HARTMUT: Offene Märkte für Beteiligungskapital: USA - Grossbritunnien - Bundesrepublik DeutschlundDE GIJSEL, PETER und SEIFERT-VOGT, HANS-GÜNTHER (Hrsg.): Schattenwirtschaft und alternative ÖkonomieGWYNNE, ROBERT N.: Industrialisation and Urbanisation in Latin AmericaHOLLANDER, SAMUEL: The Economics of John Stuart MillKINDLEBERGER, CHARLES P.: Multinational ExcursionsLABYS, WALTER C. and POLLAK, PETER K.: Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy AnalysisLAFEBER, WALTER: Inevitable Revolutions: The United States in Central AmericaLANGLOIS, RICHARD N. (ed.): Economics as a ProcessMALINVAUD, EDMOND: Mass UnemploymentMÜLLER, DENNIS C.: The Modern CorporationRUNGE, HARRY: Haushaltsfinanzierung durch NotendruckWAGENER, HANS-JÜRGEN and DRUKKER, JAN W. (eds.): The Economic Law of Motion of Modern SocietyWALKER, DONALD A. (ed.): Money and Markets

Notes: In dieser Studie werden Schätzungen der Strukturparameter und Multiplikatoren eines neuen klassischen makroökonometrischen Modells (mit rationalen Erwartungen) vorgestellt und mit denen der unrestringierten reduzierten Form sowie mit Schätzungen eines Modells ohne strukturelle Restriktionen aber mit den Restriktionen der rationalen Erwartungen verglichen. Als Ergebnis werden die strukturellen Restriktionen, die insbesondere aus der Lucas-Sargent-Angebotsfunktion resultieren, abgelehnt. Die unrestringierte Schätzung ergibt signifikante Einflüsse der erwarteten Komponenten der Staatsausgaben, der Exporte und der Terms of Trade auf den Output, aber keine dominanten Einflüsse der erwarteten und unerwarteten Geldmenge. Eine deutliche Verantwortung der Bundesbank für die Konjunkturzyklen seit der ersten ölkrise lässt sich daher nicht nachweisen. Das Testresultat für die aus den rationalen Erwartungen resultierenden Restriktionen hängt davon ab, wie die Erwartungen über die exogenen Variablen gebildet werden. Die Restriktionen aus rationalen Erwartungen werden angenommen, wenn autoregressive Prozesse für die Erwartungsbildung verwendet werden, sie werden abgelehnt, wenn gleitende Durchschnitte benutzt werden. Schliesslich wird die Hypothese der Konstanz der Parameter der Lucas-Sargent-Angebotsfunktion getestet und dabei abgelehnt.

Notes: This paper analyzes the effects of EEC and West German policy towards horizontal agreements and restrictive practices on the performance of the West German manufacturing sector. Three empirical studies are reported: (1) a time-series study of price indexes for 10 products from the mid-1950's to the present; (2) a cross-section study (for 1979 data) of 106 industries; and (3) an analysis of changes in company profit margins over time. The results suggest some short-run response to antitrust cases, but no long-lasting ‘deterrent’ effect. There is some evidence of a ‘regime effect’ occurring after 1957, i. e., a general price decline in West German industry due to changes in the competitive environment which started in that year.