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  • 1
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 10 (1978), S. 50-66 
    ISSN: 1554-9658
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    Topics: Economics
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 10 (1978), S. 44-49 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Conclusion For all these reasons, the rediscovery of the equivalence theorem, first stated by David Ricardo in 1817, must be rejected as an adequate basis for policy, just as Ricardo had denied its applicability to the real world. Correspondingly, the concern with the adverse consequences of unfunded social insurance wealth for the supply of national saving, capital intensity, and living standards remains well founded. p ]If, as a practical matter, public pension and social security programs will never be funded actuarially in the United States and most other postindustrial countries, then government-supervised substitution of private for public retirement plans is the only way to achieve at least partial funding. If such substitution follows the British model of allowing employers to contract out of the earnings-related part of the state scheme if equivalent pensions are provided by the company plan, payroll taxes and social security wealth decline so as to reduce their adverse impact on capital formation.
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 10 (1978), S. 73-84 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 10 (1978), S. 85-95 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 10 (1978), S. 96-98 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 10 (1978), S. 67-72 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Summary: Social Policy in the Italian Economy Favourable social and economic conditions constitute the essential framework for a stable development of savings. Saving in the form of insurance becomes advantageous for the individual, and private insurance can thus extend its activity, when social attitudes and the economic situation favour the propensity to save. If conditions change, the State can take over the coverage of risks through social insurance. By means of this institutions, an anti-cyclical policy can be pursued: the amount of social security contributions, for instance, can be increased during the expansion of the cycle and the amounts thus accumulated can be used to grant benefits during the recession period, when contributions can be fixed at a lower percentage of wages. Another type of policy can be pursued by government authorities: that of adjusting social security contributions to industrial profits, thereby directing the subsequent effects on economic growth. Inflation cab cause instability in decisional policies taken by private insurance companies. A solution to the unbalanced increase of costs can be found in index-linking. Life policies of this kind, for instance, cab be closely related to investments in houses, to be bought by the insured themselves in price-linked instalments. After a reference to present developments regarding risk instability and to possibilities of new forms of insurance, this paper considers the competition resulting from the opening of the EEC insurance markets as an opportunity for the Italian market to strengthen its structures.
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 10 (1978), S. 3-43 
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  • 8
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 7 (1978), S. 3-15 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 7 (1978), S. 16-25 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 7 (1978), S. 26-34 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 7 (1978), S. 35-41 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 8 (1978), S. 3-3 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 7 (1978), S. 42-55 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 8 (1978), S. 5-19 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 9 (1978), S. 3-17 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 9 (1978), S. 18-44 
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    The Geneva risk and insurance review 9 (1978), S. 45-65 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 22-22 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 39-46 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Several methods for solving open-tour-problems with two depots are presented. The solution is based on modified methods for solving travelling salesman- and vehicle dispatching problems. Further, an essentially new method based on savings is developed and the results of detailed tests are presented. The tests allow us general statements as to which method is more efficient for solving a well defined problem in accordance to its structure.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es werden mehrere verschiedene Lösungsverfahren für das Offene-Tour-Probelm mit zwei Depots vorgestellt. Dabei handelt es sich um modifizierte Verfahren zur Lösung von Travelling Salesman- und Tourenplanungsproblemen. Darüberhinaus wird ein in wesentlichen Punkten neues Verfahren erarbeitet. Ausführliche Testrechnungen geben Aufschluß über die Effizienz der vorgestellten Verfahren und lassen tendenzielle Aussagen darüber zu, welchem Verfahren bei Vorliegen einer bestimmten Problemstruktur der Vorzug zu geben ist.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 59-59 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 59-60 
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  • 23
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 84-84 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 67-83 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Over the last 10 years we observe an enormous progress in Qualitative Data Analysis. While in France especially the methods dealing with nominal data have been advanced, in Germany more complex types of data have been treated. New developments show that the analysis of appropriate binary relations onN orN ×N is possible for problems of a greater size. The problem of computing a partition or a hierarchy can be formulated as a binary linear optimization problem or an optimization problem on appropriate lattices of relations. The problems of representation and reproduction are reduced to the multidimensional scaling concept. For each type of data we consider all compatible scales and give the corresponding optimization problems, based on the classical principle of least squares.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Die Analyse qualitativer Daten hat in den vergangenen 10 Jahren einen enormen Aufschwung genommen. Während zunächst vor allem in Frankreich die Auswertung nominaler Daten forciert wurde, hat man sich in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland auch mit der Auswertung komplexerer Datenstrukturen beschäftigt. Neuere Trends belegen nachdrücklich, daß die Auswertung strukturadäquater Relationen aufN bzw.N ×N zum Teil auch für umfangreichere Probleme möglich ist. Das Problem der disjunkten bzw. hierarchischen Klassifikation führt oft zu Aufgaben der binären linearen Optimierung oder zu Optimierungsansätzen auf geeigneten Verbänden von Relationen. Das Problem der Repräsentation und Identifikation mit qualitativen Daten wird auf das Konzept der mehrdimensionalen Skalierung zurückgeführt. Man läßt für jeden Merkmalstyp alle mit der Struktur verträglichen Skalierungen zu und formuliert Optimierungsprobleme, die auf dem klassischen Prinzip der kleinsten Quadrate beruhen.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 217-222 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Ein bekanntes Resultat von Lemke und Howson besagt, daß die Anzahl der Nash-Gleichgewichtungspunkte für nichtdegenerierte Bimatrix-Spiele ungerade ist. Dieses Ergebnis wird im folgenden Sinne verallgemeinert: es wird nachgewiesen, daß die Anzahl der nichtdegenerierten Gleichgewichtspunkte für Spiele mit höchstens endlich vielen Gleichgewichtspunkten stets ungerade ist. Daraus ergibt sich, daß eindeutige Gleichgewichtspunkte nichtdegeneriert sind. Außerdem erhält man damit erneut einige auf Jansen zurückgehende Resultate.
    Notes: Summary It is a well-known result of Lemke and Howson that the number of Nash-equilibria of a bimatrix game is odd in a nondegenerate case. In this paper a generalized version of this theorem will be proved. It will be shown that in case of finiteness of the number of Nash-equilibria the number of nondegenerate Nash-equilibria is always odd. Consequences of this fact are nondegeneracy for unique Nash-equilibria and some results of Jansen.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 223-227 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Wir betrachten die Wertiteration bei diskontierten Markovschen Entscheidungsprozessen mit abzählbarem Zustandsraum. Wir zeigen, daß unter gewissen Bedingungen eineN-isotone Folge von optimalen Entscheidungsregeln und Wertfunktionen existiert.N-isoton heißt eine Folge von Entscheidungsregeln {δ n },n ∈ {1,2,...}=N, dann, wenn für eine Halbordnung ≲ überK=UK(i) gilt δ n−1 (i) δ n−1(i)≲δ n (i) für allen⩾2 undi ∈I. (K(i is die Menge der zulässigen Aktionen im Zustandi). Eine analoge Definition derN-Isotonie gilt für die Wertfunktionen {vn},n⩾1.
    Notes: Summary This paper considers the value iteration process for countable state discounted Markov decision processes and shows that under certain conditions there will exist anN-isotone sequence of optimal decision rules and value functions, whereN-isotonicity of a sequence of decision rules {δ n }, n ∈ {1,2,...}=N requires that, for a specified partial order ≲ overK=UK(i) (K(i) being the feasible action space fori) then δ n−1(i)≲δ n (i), ∀n⩾2 and alli ∈I, with a similar definition ofN-isotonic for the value functions {v n },n⩾1.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 250-250 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 251-251 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 253-253 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 1-21 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Wir geben einen Überblick über wichtige Teilbereiche der kombinatorischen Optimierung, so wie sie sich heute darstellen. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf neueren theoretischen Ergebnissen, die sich für Anwendungen in der Praxis als nützlich erwiesen haben. Abschnitt 2 dient der Vorstellung einzelner Beispiele und der Erläuterung unserer Bezeichnungsweise. Zentrale Begriffe aus der Komplexitätstheorie wie etwa die eines einfachen oder schwierigen Problems sind Gegenstand von Abschnitt 3. Ausgehend von Matroid-, Matching- und Netzwerkflußproblemen beschreiben wir anschlie-ßend, auf welche Weise polynomial lösbare Verallgemeinerungen dieser Probleme erhalten und in eine allgemeine Theorie submodularer Funktionen eingeordnet werden können. Im ersten Teil eines Abschnittes über Polyedertheorie besprechen wir orientierte Matroide, mit deren Hilfe die Theorie der konvexen Polyeder in einem rein kombinatorischen Rahmen verallgemeinert werden kann. Der 2. Teil befaßt sich mit Beziehungen zwischen linearen Systemen und Kombinatorik, hier besonders mit ganzzahligen Polyedern. Struktur und Bewertung von heuristischen Verfahren sind Gegenstand von Abschnitt 6. Schließlich beschreiben wir Ansätze zur Lösung schwieriger Optimierungsprobleme, die sich bei der Anwendung auf spezielle Problemklassen als leistungsfähig erwiesen haben.
    Notes: Summary We survey important parts of the theory of combinatorial optimization as it is developed today. The emphasis lies on new theoretical results, which have proven useful in practical applications. In Sect. 2 we present some examples and explain our basic notation. The purpose of Sect. 3 is to introduce central concepts of complexity theory, in particular the notions of easy and hard problems. Starting from matroid, matching and network flow problems we describe how polynomially solvable generalizations of these can be obtained, taking account of the theory of submodular functions as a general framework. Oriented matroids as a suitable concept by which to generalize the theory of convex polyhedra in a purely combinatorial setting are discussed in the first part of a section on polyhedral theory. Part 2 is concerned with the relations between linear systems and combinatorics, in particular integer polyhedra. The structure and evaluation of heuristic algorithms is the subject of Sect. 6. Finally, we describe basic ideas for the solution of hard optimization problems as they have proven efficient for particular problem classes.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 47-51 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Wir untersuchen die Zuverlässigkeit eines Seriensystems ausn Komponenten, bei dem für diei-te Komponentem i − 1 Reserveelemente zur Verfügung stehen. Mit Hilfe der dynamischen Optimierung bestimmen wir die optimale Ersetzungspolitik. Besteht das System aus identischen Paaren, hängt die Entscheidung von der Zahl der intakten Paare ab. Für diesen Fall geben wir beispielhaft einige numerische Ergebnisse.
    Notes: Summary This paper considers the reliability of a system which consists ofn components connected in series, the ithcomponent being supported by (m i − 1) units in parallel and obtains the optimal policy of replacement by dynamic programming. In the case of a system consisting of identical pairs, the decision depends on the number of operable pairs. For this case sample calculations are presented.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 58-58 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 60-60 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 92-92 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 108-108 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 109-117 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung In der von Ross entwickelten Arbitragebewertungstheorie werden die Wertpapierrenditen von gemeinsamen und individuellen Faktoren erzeugt, die vorab nicht spezifiziert werden. Es wird gezeigt, daß eine exakte Arbitragebewertung bei endlich vielen Wertpapieren genau dann besteht, wenn ein bestimmtes (μ,σ)-effizientes Portefeuille ohne unsystematisches Risiko existiert. Dies ist die wesentliche testbare Implikation der Arbitragebewertungstheorie. Außerdem wird gezeigt, daß Tests, soweit sie die Hauptkomponentenmethode oder die Faktorenanalyse verwenden, einen erheblichen Bias gegen die Theorie aufweisen.
    Notes: Summary In the arbitrage pricing theory, developed by Ross, asset returns are generated by common and residual factors which are not prespecified. This paper shows that exact arbitrage pricing exists in a finite economy if and only if a specific mean-variance efficient portfolio with zero residual variance exists. Zero residual variance is the essential testable implication of the arbitrage pricing theory. Moreover, it is shown that tests of this theory using either principal component analysis or factor analysis to extract factors appear to be strongly biased against the theory.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 124-124 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 131-131 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 132-132 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 166-166 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 186-186 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 177-185 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Rational strategic decisions are based on the knowledge how the strategic variables of the firm are related to the goal variable. The goal achievement is not only influenced by the strategies of the firm but also by the strategies of the competitors. Therefore we propose in this article a competition model, in which competition behaviour is explicitly defined. The optimum solution is interpreted economically.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Rationales strategisches Handeln setzt voraus, daß die Wirkungen der strategischen Variablen auf die Zielgröße des Unternehmens bekannt sind. Der Zielerreichungsgrad wird aber nicht nur von den unternehmensbezogenen Strategien, sondern auch vom Konkurrenzverhalten beeinflußt. Daher wird in der vorliegenden Abhandlung ein Wettbewerbsmodell, das Konkurrenzverhalten explizit einbezieht, entwickelt und die Optimallösung ökonomisch interpretiert.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 192-192 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 206-206 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 207-216 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Das Problem der Bestimmung einer optimalen Anzahl von möglicherweise verschiedenen Fahrzeugen in einem Fuhrpark sowie die bestmögliche Zusammensetzung verschiedener Fahrzeuge bei der Tourenplanung, wobei die Fixkosten der Beschaffung und die Kosten für die laufende Unterhaltung der Routen minimiert werden soll, wird diskutiert. Einige bekannte Heuristiken und ein Algorithmus zur Bestimmung einer unteren Schranke werden besprochen. Mit diesen Grundlagen wird eine neue Heuristik vorgeschlagen. Um die Leistungsfähigkeit der verschiedenen Lösungsmethoden zu vergleichen, werden anschließend Rechenergebnisse verschiedener benchmark Probleme vorgestellt.
    Notes: Summary In the fleet size and mix vehicle routing problem, one decides upon the composition and size of a possibly heterogeneous fleet of vehicles so as to minimize the sum of fixed vehicle acquisition costs and routing costs for customer deliveries. This paper reviews some existing heuristics for this problem as well as a lower bound procedure. Based on the latter, a new heuristic is presented. Computational results are provided for a number of benchmark problems in order to compare the performance of the different solution methods.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 238-238 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 239-249 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The strongly variing demand for roomheating energy caused by variations of metheorological conditions sets disposition problems with considerable effects on economic efficiency to gas suppliers. It is, however, possible to maintain a smoothing of gas purchase by gas storages and production facilities and thus to uncouple it from the more or less stochastic demand. The following paper presents a simulation model for discussion of planning and decision problems in connection with peakgas supply.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Die witterungsbedingt stark schwankende Heizenergienachfrage stellt die Erdgaslieferanten vor Dispotitionsprobleme mit erheblichen erfolgswirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen. Es gelingt jedoch mit Hilfe von Gasspeicher- und Erzeugungsanlagen, den Gasbezug zu vergleichmäßigen und von der mehr oder weniger stochastischen Nachfrage zu entkoppeln. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein Simulationsmodell zur investitions- und kostenrechnerischen Beurteilung von Planungs- und Entscheidungsproblemen im Zusammenhang mit der Spitzengasdarbietung vorgestellt.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 253-254 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 52-52 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 53-57 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Der Zustand eines Systems werde bis zu seinem Ausfall durch einen Markov Prozeß beschrieben. Eine vorsorgliche Wartungserneuerung kann zu einer Stoppzeit durchgeführt werden. Ist die Ausfallrate nicht monoton, so wird die optimale Erneuerungsstrategie nach dem Durchschnittskostenprinzip i. a. keine “control limit rule” sein. Es werden Bedingungen angegeben, unter denen eine optimale Politik bestimmt werden kann.
    Notes: Summary The state of a system, which is subject to random failure, is described by a Markov process. Preventive replacements are possible at any stopping time. If the failure rate is not a monotone function, the optimal replacement policy that minimizes long run cost per unit time is in general no control limit rule. Conditions are given, under which the optimal policy can be determined.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 85-91 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Most of the raw material feed for a lead smelter is purchased from outside. These raw materials have a wide bracket of both kind and composition and are used in the various stages of the production process. Owing to the many material circuits, raw material evaluation, aiming at an optimized operating result, is only possible by means of operations research methods. A linear programming model has been developed, comprising both the conditions for costs and proceeds and all technical relations. Besides the calculation of optimum supply and mixing schedules, the model also permits to take decisions regarding any improvements of process engineering.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Eine Bleihütte wird vorwiegend mit gekauften Vorstoffen versorgt, die sich erheblich nach Art und Zusammensetzung unterscheiden und in verschiedenen Produktionsstufen eingesetzt werden. Die Vorstoffbewertung mit dem Ziel eines optimalen Betriebsergebnisses ist wegen der umfangreichen Materialkreisläufe nur durch Anwendung von OR-Verfahren möglich. Es wurde ein Linear-Programming-Modell entwickelt, das die Bedingungen zur Ermittlung von Kosten und Erlösen sowie alle technischen Zusammenhänge umfaßt. Das Modell ermöglicht neben der Berechnung optimaler Beschaffungs- und Mischungspläne auch Entscheidungen über Verbesserungen der Verfahrenstechnik.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 118-118 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 125-130 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 133-140 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 161-165 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Ein allgemeiner Rahmen wird gegeben, in dem man Kriterien zur Modellauswahl herleiten kann. Zuerst werden Bedingungen angeführt, unter denen man die asymptotische Verteilung von Minimum-Diskrepanz-Schätzern angeben kann. Mit den Resultaten wird dann eine Annäherung an die erwartete Gesamtdiskrepanz berechnet. Schätzer dieser Erwartung, also Kriterien zur Modellauswahl, werden vorgeschlagen.
    Notes: Summary A general frame is given in which model selection criteria can be derived. At first conditions are stated under which the asymptotic distribution of minimum discrepancy estimators can be given. The results are used to derive an approximation to the expected discrepancy. Estimators of this expectation, i.e. model selection criteria, are proposed.
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 187-190 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 191-191 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 193-194 
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    OR spectrum 6 (1984), S. 93-107 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The paper studies the optimal intertemporal price and employment policy for a profit-maximizing firm. In addition to production costs, the firm has to bear inventory costs and labour adjustment costs (recruitment and firing costs). The framework is a nonlinear optimal control model with two state variables (inventory stock and employment level) and a pure state constraint (nonnegativity of the inventory). By using the computer program COLSYS, a numerical phase portrait analysis is carried out providing insight in the structure of the optimal recruitment, firing and price strategies in dependence of the firm's initial endowment.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag untersucht die optimale intertemporale Preis- und Beschäftigungspolitik einer profitmaximierenden Firma, die zusätzlich zu den Produktionskosten Lagerhaltungskosten und Anpassungskosten für die Arbeitskräfte (Rekrutierungs- und Entlassungskosten) zu tragen hat. Unterstellt wird dabei ein nichtlineares Kontrollmodell mit zwei Zustandsvariablen (Lagerbestand und Arbeitskräfte) und einer reinen Zustandsnebenbedingung (Nichtnegativität des Lagers). Eine numerische Ermittlung der Phasenporträts mittels des Programmpaketes COLSYS liefert Einsichten in die Struktur der optimalen Rekrutierungs-, Entlassuns- und Preisstrategien in Abhängigkeit von der Anfangsausstattung der Firma.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 1-29 
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    Notes: Summary A model approach to inflation is generated through a newIS-LM analogous synthesis of money, output and prices incorporating several capacity equivalent ratio variables of the product, the factor and the money markets. These variables measure the divergence between the short term demand choices which regulate the actual state of the economy and the long term supply decisions which generate its potential capabilities. Thus, they are indicative of market excesses and shortages, determine the general state of economic expectations and move the entire system. The density of money supply and peak budget relative are the new important ratios introduced and developed in the model. The model identifies stagflation and has been tested by the quarterly data of the Canadian economy.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 115-122 
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    Notes: Abstract A simple monetarist model is specified which has a reduced form relating the rate of change of prices to lagged price changes and current and lagged rates of change of money supply. The reduced form is estimated for 14 OECD countries using quarterly data for 1958–1975 and the stability of the estimated equations is examined. A policy of a constant rate of growth of money supply is found to imply a cyclical or fluctuating adjustment in the rate of price change.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 123-134 
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    Notes: Summary The demand model discussed in this paper has a sigmoid shape and its independent variables are log transformations of market prices instead of incomes as is more customary. The essential element of this model is a psychological variable, the “tolerance price”, which we may loosely define as that price level in correspondence to which the consumer refrains from buying the commodity in question. The ratio between this psychological variable and market prices determines actual demand. An empirical application to an oligopolistic market is successfully tried out.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 135-154 
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    Notes: Abstract The Nigerian economy has been modelled with special emphasis on the aggregate demand side. The set of “administered” interest rates have been accommodated in the usual IS/LM analysis, with the extra assumptions that the equilibrium income is attained when the disequilibrating forces in the product and the money markets are equal in magnitude but opposite in signs. The model has been tested with the available data, found to be stable, and indicate, among other things, that an increase in the crude petroleum price would improve the balance of trade barely up to three years and after that, would become adverse.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 183-201 
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper price and wage determination is analyzed for 35 industries in West-Germany. Tests are made to classify industries as being competitive, discriminatory or sheltered. The chosen approach is related to the “Scandinavian” model. It is shown that about a third of the industries in the sample are not price takers in spite of international trade. Wages are strongly influenced by world market and exchange rate developments. As to the effectiveness of revaluations the results imply that, first, revaluations do provide a protection against imported inflation. Second, revaluations can be expected to produce real effects since they affect the relative price between competitively and non-competitively produced commodities and the terms of trade.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 209-226 
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    Notes: Abstract One of the standard criticisms of the St. Louis reduced form approach has been their failure to provide a sound theoretical base to the proposition that nominal income is primarily determined by the money stock and government fiscal measures. In this respectAnderson in a recent article [1975] attempts to set out a theoretical model with empirical conclusions to justify this proposition. The theoretical properties of this model have a close similarity to the empirical estimates found in previous St. Louis studies, seeAnderson/Jordan [1968] andAnderson/Carlson [1970], and perhaps not surprisingly an empirical analysis for the U.S., for the period 1955(I)–1973 (IV), fails to reject the theory. In this paper we briefly portray the theoretical flavour of the Anderson model. Secondly we consider certain estimation problems and test for the existence of such a relationship for the U.K. Thirdly we examine the forecasting ability of the model with respect to nominal income, private expenditure, nominal imports and the velocity of circulation. Finally we examine the dynamic properties of the model and conclude on its overall performance.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 227-239 
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    Notes: Summary In the first part of the paper in hand, the task of testing for adequacy of a regression relationship is reviewed to give a synopsis of the variety of procedures available. As an illustration consumption functions for Austria are analysed in some detail. The results indicate the importance of testing an empirically specified regression relationship for adequacy.
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    Empirical economics 3 (1978), S. 253-275 
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    Notes: Abstract We develop an “optimal market share rule” model of cartel behavior which when applied to the OPEC cartel appears capable of explaining its stability and responses to changed market events. In particular, by attaching importance to market shares based approximately on costs, OPEC members can by maintaining optimal shares deter deviant member attempts to break cartel rules. After a thorough discussion of the theory, the model is tested empirically using a Markov probability model. The estimated Markov transition matrix is further decomposed into what Theil has called the exchange matrix and the mean passage matrix. Dynamic adjustment processes in the market are revealed by the latter while an emerging pattern of OPEC member surveillance of consumers is revealed by the former which facilitates cartel stability. Inspection of these matrixes further suggests that after the formation of OPEC there is evidence of less potential for producer conflict while there appears more evidence for consumer conflict. While these results must be tentative in view of the fact that they have been estimated using a simplified two consumer — two producer model and limited data, it is argued that the results are highly suggestive and the approach in this study can be extended to cover all producer and consumers, and can be integrated into a complete model of the world oil market.
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    Empirical economics 9 (1984), S. 15-26 
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    Notes: Abstract Based on a consumer expenditure function estimated with Belgian time series data, this paper analyses the impact of social security on personal saving. It shows that social security has a depressive effect, mainly by affecting the saving behavior of the aged.
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    Empirical economics 9 (1984), S. 51-58 
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    Notes: Abstract The objective of this paper is to present a parametric test of Granger causality in a multivariate ARMA model. We derive the necessary and sufficient condition for Granger causality. We then relate our method to previous studies by examining Sims' nominal income and money data.
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    Empirical economics 9 (1984), S. 75-85 
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    Notes: Abstract The paper models the dual role of money balances as a short-run buffer stock and an asset with a well-specified long-run demand function. The analysis is carried out in an open economy framework. Consequently, there will be an offset to monetary policy in the form of induced capital movements, but in our model, it will be distributed over time even under perfect substitutability of financial claims. Estimates for the parameters of the demand for money function are obtained from a capital flow equation using both unrestricted (OLS) and restricted (nonlinear) estimation methods. The results provide strong evidence in favour of the shock-absorption theory for the adjustment of money demand under money supply changes.
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    Empirical economics 9 (1984), S. 131-138 
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    Notes: Abstract This study revises estimates of real Canadian potential output and the real GNP gap by applying a method of directly estimating the actual and potential factor utilization rates to quarterly Canadian data. The empirical results indicate that capital utilization varies just under twice as much as labour use over the cycle. The results also suggest that labour productivity will vary procyclically, with the elasticity of productivity with respect to the employment rate estimated to be 1.42.
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    Empirical economics 9 (1984), S. 139-150 
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    Notes: Abstract This study provides a tentative explanation of the spatial distribution of economic activity in Canada, with a focus upon the role of inter-industry linkages. Location of economic activity for each of one hundred and nine three-digit S.I.C. manufacturing industries is explained by use of a “tobit” model incorporating backward and forward linkage variables. The two sets of linkage variables in each tobit equation were reduced by extraction of one principal component from each set, using the matrix of cosines of the variables. A set of control variables completes the set of explanatory variables. The overall explanatory power of our equations was remarkably high and the role of inter-industry linkages is unmistakable.
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    Empirical economics 9 (1984), S. 183-197 
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    Notes: Abstract This article contains tests for the direct effects of inflation on household saving. Empirical results with cross-country data from five OECD countries indicate that both unanticipated and anticipated inflation affect the household savings ratio. This latter result, which furthermore turns out to be robust in terms of aggregation and additional variables, is clearly at variance with some previous analyses, particularly those of Deaton.
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    Empirical economics 9 (1984), S. 199-216 
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    Notes: Abstract A number of new tests for heteroskedasticity have recently become available. Using Monte Carlo methods this paper explores the small sample properties of some of these tests in the context of additive heteroskedasticity. Lagrange multiplier and Wald tests (and variants thereof) are found to be inferior to the likelihood ratio and Goldfeld and QuandtF tests. This is a reconfirmation of the conclusions obtained byGoldfeld/Quandt [1972] in their study of additive heteroskedasticity. The paper also contains some new results onAmemiya's GLS estimator of the additive heteroskedastic structure.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 171-182 
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    Keywords: Random graphs ; graph coloring ; tails of the binomial and the hypergeometric distributions
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    Notes: Abstract One of the lessons Paul Erdös taught us is that probabilistic counting arguments often yield surprisingly strong existence results in combinatorics. This paper illustrates the paradigm on four examples drawn from Erdös's own work. The examples concern the chromatic number of a graph.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 273-289 
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    Keywords: Average complexity ; satisfiability ; pure literal ; heuristic ; Davis-Putnam procedure
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    Notes: Abstract An algorithm for the SATISFIABILITY problem is presented and a probabilistic analysis is performed. The analysis is based on an instance distribution which is parametrized to simulate a variety of sample characteristics. The algorithm either correctly determines whether a given instance of SATISFIABILITY has a solution or gives up. It is shown that the algorithm runs in polynomial time and gives up with probability approaching zero as input size approaches infinity for a range of parameter values. This result is an improvement over the results in [3] and [4].
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 43-58 
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    Keywords: Hierarchical planning models ; identical machine scheduling
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    Notes: Abstract In the hierarchical scheduling model to be considered, the decision at the aggregate level to acquire a number of identical machines has to be based on probabilistic information about the jobs that have to be scheduled on these machines at the detailed level. The objective is to minimize the sum of the acquisition costs and the expected average completion time of the jobs. In contrast to previous models of this type, the second part of this objective function corresponds to a well-solvable scheduling problem that can be solved to optimality by a simple priority rule. A heuristic method to solve the entire problem is described, for which strong asymptotic optimality results can be established.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 23-42 
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    Keywords: Hierarchical planning problem ; stochastic programming ; heuristic ; performance measure ; probabilistic analysis ; asymptotic optimality ; machine scheduling
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    Notes: Abstract As we have argued in previous papers, multi-level decision problems can often be modeled as multi-stage stochastic programs, and hierarchical planning systems designed for their solution, when viewed as stochastic programming heuristics, can be subjected to analytical performance evaluation. The present paper gives a general formulation of such stochastic programs and provides a framework for the design and analysis of heuristics for their solution. The various ways to measure the performance of such heuristics are reviewed, and some relations between these measures are derived. Our concepts are illustrated on a simple two-level planning problem of a general nature and on a more complicated two-level scheduling problem.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 59-65 
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    Keywords: Pert ; cpm ; network flows ; reliability ; stochastic majorisation ; convex majorisation ; antithetic random variables
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    Notes: Abstract In various network models the quantities of interest are optimal value functions of the form max ΣX i , min ΣX i , min maxX i , max minX i , where the inner operation is on the nodes of a path/cut and the outer operation on all paths/cuts, e.g. shortest path of a project network, maximal flow of a flow network or lifetime of a reliability system. ForX i random with given marginal distributions, we obtain bounds for the optimal value functions, based on common and on antithetic joint distributions.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 67-78 
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    Keywords: Integer linear programming ; stochastic programming ; probabilistic analysis ; computational complexity ; order statistics
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    Notes: Abstract A method is proposed to estimate confidence intervals for the solution of integer linear programming (ILP) problems where the technological coefficients matrix and the resource vector are made up of random variables whose distribution laws are unknown and only a sample of their values is available. This method, based on the theory of order statistics, only requires knowledge of the solution of the relaxed integer linear programming (RILP) problems which correspond to the sampled random parameters. The confidence intervals obtained in this way have proved to be more accurate than those estimated by the current methods which use the integer solutions of the sampled ILP problems.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 79-83 
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    Keywords: Linear programming ; stochastic analysis
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    Notes: Abstract Linear programming is applied to assess the optimal capacity of the Norwegian industrial fishing fleet when quotas are random. A great potential for profit is identified and the significance of resource uncertainty for practical management is de-emphasized.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 129-134 
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    Keywords: Statistical models ; multimodal optimization ; stochastic programming ; decision theory ; Bayesian problems
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    Notes: Abstract A model of a complicated function under uncertainty is constructed axiomatically, formalizing suppositions on rationality of information on a considered function.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 165-167 
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 239-254 
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    Keywords: Random graphs ; expectation of greedy matchings
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    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with the expected cardinality of greedy matchings in random graphs. Different versions of the greedy heuristic for the cardinality matching problem are considered. Experimental data and some theoretical results are reported.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 331-345 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 1-9 
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 59-94 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Efficiency ; Pareto optimality ; production functions ; returns to scale ; nondiscretionary inputs ; linear programming ; fractional programming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper serves as an introduction to a series of three papers which are directed to different aspects of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) as follows: (1) uses and extensions of window analyses' to study DEA efficiency measures with an illustrative applications to maintenance activities for U.S. Air Force fighter wings, (2) a comparison of DEA and regression approaches to identifying and estimating, sources of inefficiency by means of artificially generated data, and (3) an extension of ordinary (linear programming) sensitivity analyses to deal with special features that require attention in DEA. Background is supplied in this introductory paper with accompanying proofs and explanations to facilitate understanding of what DEA provides in the way of underpinning for the papers that follow. An attempt is made to bring readers abreast of recent progress in DEA research and uses. A synoptic history is presented along with brief references to related work, and problems requiring attention are also indicated and possible research approaches also suggested.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 29-37 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Business ; forecasts ; economics ; alternatives ; executives
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 23-27 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Taxonomy ; classes ; decisions ; criteria ; decision makers
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Decision models can be classified according to the number of decision makers (x 1), of decision criteria (x 2), and of decisions called for (x 3). If we allow eachx j to take one of the values ‘1’ or ‘m’ (many), we have 8 possible triples (x 1,x 2,x 3) each of which defines or describes a class of decision models. The simplest and by far the most prevalent in textbooks and journals are the two (1, 1,m) and (1, 1, 1). The two classes (m, 1,x 3) include most of game theory and models for fair allocation; the importance of these classes is widely comprehended. The classes (1,m,x 3) are somewhat less well understood although increasingly recognized in the literature of decision models. The class (m, m, 1) has not achieved broad attention even though it relates to highly important national and worldwide problems. Finally, despite its potential importance, the class (m, m, m) has received almost no attention from modelers.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 253-270 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Summary The Mineral Resources Institute of the Colorado School of Mines is completing a project sponsored jointly by the Gas Research Institute and the Electric Power Research Institute to assess the cost of development of natural gas resources in the United States. The project has as its objective the development of a method and subsequent calculation of costs which might be anticipated in the discovery and development of the undiscovered natural gas resources of the nation. Costs are expressed in constant dollars and are intended to provide a measure of the relative costs which would be encountered in various, regions and at various depths. The project work was supported by the development of a model for calculation of full marginal costs of resource discovery and development by Operational Economics, Inc. This paper summarizes the data sources, methodology, and results of the analyses performed, as well as some interpretations of those results. Additionally, the paper includes some possible applications of the procedures and the models to the estimation of the costs of development of the oil resources of the United States and of the oil and gas resources of the world.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 285-316 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Regulation ; shadow price ; economics ; markets ; natural gas
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Inclusion of the shadow prices for natural gas in a dynamic fuels model for the United States shows that the primary reason for the relatively large, fly-up in new marginal gas prices in the early 1980's was the release of the pent-up price effects of the U.S. government's price regulations. In accordance with principles, the shadow price of natural gas fell siginificantly following de-regulation of the highcost gas (section 107) in 1980, which represented the precursor for downward adjustments in marginal wellhead prices of new high-cost gas and drilling activity. The modeling results show that no significant fly-up in new marginal gas prices for lower-cost gas (section 102) is likely to occur in 1985, when its phased de-regulation ends and it is finally de-regulated, because no shadow price precursor currently exists for this gas. Shadow price principles clear up the primary misconceptions with regard to natural gas pricing. This application indicates the significance of shadow price principles for regulated pricing in general.
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 3-22 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Stochastic optimization ; subgradient ; stochastic programming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We review some modeling alternatives for handling risk in decision-making processes for unconstrained stochastic optimization problems. Solution strategies are discussed and compared.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 239-252 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Technology ; plants ; tradeoffs ; cost ; policy ; sulfur oxide
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The model estimates, subject to restrictions, the functional relationship between national sulfur dioxide discharges and investment in control technology development. Estimates may be made for different product demands, allowed cost increases, and clean fuel availabilities. Control technology development may be accelerated by increased investment. Both optimal and sub-optimal solutions are calculated for an example problem. A general computing method is provided.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 317-327 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Information ; value ; data ; methods
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Operational measurement methods may be developed to measure the value of information in the data reported by the U.S. Government. Illustrative measures for cost of cotton production statistics indicate that the benefits from these data in certain important uses may far exceed their costs. If similar measures could be provided for major Government data programmes, it would facilitate the development of a national data policy that is oriented toward decision making and improvements in economic growth, national well-being, and quality of life. Making these estimates would begin to provide the dollar values in important uses of information in the nation's data bases. These values are needed for allocating resources to maintain, refine, and develop fundamental data series. Cutting data expenditure in the absence of these value measures may be false economy indeed; because, reducing data series with very high benefit/cost ratios might well limit, if not reduce, living standards for many generations to come.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 39-58 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Normatives ; objectives ; multiples ; approximations ; models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper discusses the rationale for the use of additive models involving multiple objectives as approximations to normative analyses. Experience has shown us that organizations often evaluate important decisions with multiple objective models rather than reducing all aspects of the problem to a single criterion, dollars, as many normative economic models prescribe. We justify this practice on two grounds: managers often prefer to think about a problem in terms of several dimensions and a multiple objective model may provide an excellent approximation to the more complex normative model. We argue that a useful analysis based on a multiple objective model will fulfill both conditions—it will provide insights for the decision maker as well as a good approximation to the normative model. We report several real-world examples of managers using multiple objective models to approximate such normative models as the risk-adjusted net present value and the value of information models. The agreement between the approximate models and the normative models is shown to be quite good. Next, we cite a portion of the behavioral decision theory literature which establishes that linear models of multiple attributes provide quite robust approximations to individual decision-making processes. We then present more general theoretical and empirical results which support our contention that linear multiple attribute models can provide good approximations to more complex models.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 157-182 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A stochastic investiment is analyzed to show the consequences of an unwillingness by the entrepreneur to accept any positive risk of the firm's failure. The entrepreneur does not invest in additional capacity, even in the face of continuing positive expected profits, if that investment would infringe on the firm's ability to survive. Survival of the firm conditions all investment decisions, which are functions (via the physical and financial capital accounts) of the random outcomes observed at the time of decision. This conditioning shows how worse than expected outcomes will affect the firm's net asset position and its ability to survive. Managerially, the entrepreneur has principles by which to explicitly consider unpleasant surprises in planning for the continued growth of the firm. In contrast, knowledge of the random outcomes is shown to be of no consequence in an alternative model where maximization of expected profits is the sole criterion of the entrepreneur. In that model, the optimal investiment decisions can be made at the beginning of the firm's life, because those decisions are not functions of the future yields. Reduction of the survival model to a linear programming (LP) problem highlights the additional complexity of the survival problem. This reduction means that the maximum value of the objective function for the primal (expected profits) equals the minimum value of the objective function for the dual (resource costs), which economists interpret as zero profits. The zero profit consequence is in accordance with Knight's long-standing economic conjecture: If all risks are measureable, total risk aversion will result in no profits. Also, LP methods provide a way in application to analyze a wide range of risk possibilities from acceptance of no risk of failure to acceptance of some risk of failure.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 229-238 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Trends ; efficiency ; technology ; energy ; productivity ; alternatives
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper discusses long-term trends in relationships between energy use and the overall productive efficiency of the American economy. While total energy consumption grew strongly during the twentieth century, the intensity of energy use (i.e. the energy/GNP ratio) fell persistently much of the time. Thus, there were simultaneous long-term improvements in labor productivity, total factor productivity,and energy productivity. The historical record appears to be at odds with conventional beliefs that gains in productive efficiency depend upon the rising intensity of energy use in production processes. A key role in bringing about these counter-intuitive results is assigned to what is referred to as the energy-technology-productivity nexus, in which the quality of particular energy forms such as electricity and liquid fuels (along with closely linked changes in energy-using technologies) played a critical part in leveraging the overall efficiency of production. As a result of these energy form-dependent improvements in productive efficiency, outputs grew more rapidly than all inputs, including the inputs of energy. The more recent past stands in sharp contrast to the long-term record. While energy efficiency (as measured by energy/GNP) showed strong gains during the late 1970's and early 1980's, the growth in overall productive efficiency was severely retarded. Implications for the future of suggested linkages between the quality of particular energy forms and technological progress are considered.
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 329-334 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: nation ; technology ; economics ; environment ; tradeoff's ; policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Analysis of pending national policy takes on greater importance each day to supply policy makers with much needed data on the overall economic effect such policies will have on total employment, income, output, tax revenues, and the general price level throughout the economy. This short paper examines the potential for integration of existing modeling technology into a meaningful national planning model to provide a sound set of economic indices leading to enhanced market efficiency and resource use. Initial efforts at integrated modeling and analysis are described, together with indications of their levels of success in replicating the existing economic environment. Emphasis is placed on determination of shadow prices in a growing economy and their incorporation into the systematic development of a national planning model.
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