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  • Articles  (18)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology
  • Climate change
  • American Meteorological Society  (16)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • 1
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    The climatological rise in winter temperature- and dewpoint-based thaw events and their impact on snow depth on Mount Washington, New Hampshire (2022)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-06
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 60(9), (2021): 1361–1370, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0254.1.
    Description: We analyze how winter thaw events (TE; T 〉 0°C) are changing on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, using three metrics: the number of TE, number of thaw hours, and number of thaw degree-hours for temperature and dewpoint for winters from 1935/36 to 2019/20. The impact of temperature-only TE and dewpoint TE on snow depth are compared to quantify the different impacts of sensible-only heating and sensible-and-latent heating, respectively. Results reveal that temperature and dewpoint TE for all metrics increased at a statistically significant rate (p 〈 0.05) over the full time periods studied for temperature (1935/36–2019/20) and dewpoint (1939/40–2019/20). Notably, around 2000/01, the positive trends increased for most variables, including dewpoint-thaw degree-hours that increased by 82.11 degree-hours decade−1 during 2000–20, which is approximately 5 times as faster as the 1939–2020 rate of 17.70 degree-hours decade−1. Furthermore, a clear upward shift occurred around 1990 in the lowest winter values of thaw hours and thaw degree-hours—winters now have a higher baseline amount of thaw than before 1990. Snow-depth loss during dewpoint TE (0.36 cm h−1) occurred more than 2 times as fast as temperature-only TE (0.14 cm h−1). With winters projected to warm throughout the twenty-first century in the northeastern United States, it is expected that the trends in winter thaw events, and the sensible and latent energy that they bring, will continue to rise and lead to more frequent winter flooding, fewer days of good quality snow for winter recreation, and changes in ecosystem function.
    Keywords: Atmosphere ; Snowmelt/icemelt ; Snowpack ; Winter/cool season ; Climate change ; Humidity ; Latent heating/cooling ; Snow cover ; Temperature
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
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    A new structure for the Sea Ice Essential Climate variables of the Global Climate Observing System (2022)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(6), (2022): E1502-E1521, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-21-0227.1.
    Description: Climate observations inform about the past and present state of the climate system. They underpin climate science, feed into policies for adaptation and mitigation, and increase awareness of the impacts of climate change. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), a body of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), assesses the maturity of the required observing system and gives guidance for its development. The Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) are central to GCOS, and the global community must monitor them with the highest standards in the form of Climate Data Records (CDR). Today, a single ECV—the sea ice ECV—encapsulates all aspects of the sea ice environment. In the early 1990s it was a single variable (sea ice concentration) but is today an umbrella for four variables (adding thickness, edge/extent, and drift). In this contribution, we argue that GCOS should from now on consider a set of seven ECVs (sea ice concentration, thickness, snow depth, surface temperature, surface albedo, age, and drift). These seven ECVs are critical and cost effective to monitor with existing satellite Earth observation capability. We advise against placing these new variables under the umbrella of the single sea ice ECV. To start a set of distinct ECVs is indeed critical to avoid adding to the suboptimal situation we experience today and to reconcile the sea ice variables with the practice in other ECV domains.
    Description: PH’s contribution was funded under the Australian Government’s Antarctic Science Collaboration Initiative program, and contributes to Project 6 of the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (ASCI000002). PH acknowledges support through the Australian Antarctic Science Projects 4496 and 4506, and the International Space Science Institute (Bern, Switzerland) project #405.
    Description: 2022-12-01
    Keywords: Sea ice ; Climate change ; Climatology ; Climate records
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  • 3
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    Cancelation of deglacial thermosteric sea level rise by a barosteric effect (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(12),(2020): 3623-3639, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0173.1
    Description: Sea level rise over the last deglaciation is dominated by the mass of freshwater added to the oceans by the melting of the great ice sheets. While the steric effect of changing seawater density is secondary over the last 20 000 years, processes connected to deglacial warming, the redistribution of salt, and the pressure load of meltwater all influence sea level rise by more than a meter. Here we develop a diagnostic for steric effects that is valid when oceanic mass is changing. This diagnostic accounts for seawater compression due to the added overlying pressure of glacial meltwater, which is here defined to be a barosteric effect. Analysis of three-dimensional global seawater reconstructions of the last deglaciation indicates that thermosteric height change (1.0–1.5 m) is counteracted by barosteric (−1.9 m) and halosteric (from −0.4 to 0.0 m) effects. The total deglacial steric effect from −0.7 to −1.1 m has the opposite sign of analyses that assume that thermosteric expansion is dominant. Despite the vertical oceanic structure not being well constrained during the Last Glacial Maximum, net seawater contraction appears robust as it occurs in four reconstructions that were produced using different paleoceanographic datasets. Calculations that do not account for changes in ocean pressure give the misleading impression that steric effects enhanced deglacial sea level rise.
    Description: GG is supported by NSF OCE-1536380 and OCE-1760878.
    Description: 2021-06-01
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Sea level ; Water masses/storage ; Climate change ; Glaciation ; Water budget/balance
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(22), (2020): 9883-9903, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0004.1.
    Description: Machine-learning-based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space–time are applied to climate model simulations and tree-ring-based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the past 1000 years, as well as twenty-first-century projections. Analyzing reconstructed and simulated drought in this context provides a paleoclimate constraint on the spatiotemporal characteristics of simulated droughts. Climate models project that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but with little change in their spatial extent. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit biases in the spatiotemporal characteristics of persistent and severe droughts over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We use the paleoclimate record and results from a linear inverse modeling-based framework to conclude that climate models underestimate the range of potential future hydroclimate states. Complicating this picture, however, are divergent changes in the characteristics of persistent and severe droughts when quantified using different hydroclimate metrics. Collectively our results imply that these divergent responses and the aforementioned biases must be better understood if we are to increase confidence in future hydroclimate projections. Importantly, the novel framework presented herein can be applied to other climate features to robustly describe their spatiotemporal characteristics and provide constraints on future changes to those characteristics.
    Description: This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. JAF was also supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. JS was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation through Grants AGS-1602920 and AGS-1805490, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by Grant NA20OAR4310425. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portal. We thank the editor and two reviewers for comments that greatly improved the quality of this manuscript. This is SOEST Publication No. 11116 and LDEO Publication No. 8450.
    Description: 2021-04-15
    Keywords: Drought ; Climate change ; Paleoclimate ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Other artificial intelligence/machine learning
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  • 5
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    Importance of Orography for Greenland cloud and melt response to atmospheric blocking (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Hahn, L. C., Storelvmo, T., Hofer, S., Parfitt, R., & Ummenhofer, C. C. Importance of Orography for Greenland cloud and melt response to atmospheric blocking. Journal of Climate, 33(10), (2020): 4187-4206, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0527.1.
    Description: More frequent high pressure conditions associated with atmospheric blocking episodes over Greenland in recent decades have been suggested to enhance melt through large-scale subsidence and cloud dissipation, which allows more solar radiation to reach the ice sheet surface. Here we investigate mechanisms linking high pressure circulation anomalies to Greenland cloud changes and resulting cloud radiative effects, with a focus on the previously neglected role of topography. Using reanalysis and satellite data in addition to a regional climate model, we show that anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Greenland during recent extreme blocking summers produce cloud changes dependent on orographic lift and descent. The resulting increased cloud cover over northern Greenland promotes surface longwave warming, while reduced cloud cover in southern and marginal Greenland favors surface shortwave warming. Comparison with an idealized model simulation with flattened topography reveals that orographic effects were necessary to produce area-averaged decreasing cloud cover since the mid-1990s and the extreme melt observed in the summer of 2012. This demonstrates a key role for Greenland topography in mediating the cloud and melt response to large-scale circulation variability. These results suggest that future melt will depend on the pattern of circulation anomalies as well as the shape of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
    Description: This research was supported by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Summer Student Fellow program, by the U.S. National Science Foundation under AGS-1355339 to C.C.U., and by the European Research Council through Grant 758005.
    Keywords: Ice sheets ; Blocking ; Cloud cover ; Topographic effects ; Climate change ; Climate variability
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  • 6
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    What causes the AMOC to weaken in CMIP5? (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-03-16
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(4), (2020): 1535-1545, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0547.1.
    Description: In a transient warming scenario, the North Atlantic is influenced by a complex pattern of surface buoyancy flux changes that ultimately weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we study the AMOC response in the CMIP5 experiment, using the near-geostrophic balance of the AMOC on interannual time scales to identify the role of temperature and salinity changes in altering the circulation. The thermal wind relationship is used to quantify changes in the zonal density gradients that control the strength of the flow. At 40°N, where the overturning cell is at its strongest, weakening of the AMOC is largely driven by warming between 1000- and 2000-m depth along the western margin. Despite significant subpolar surface freshening, salinity changes are small in the deep branch of the circulation. This is likely due to the influence of anomalously salty water in the subpolar intermediate layers, which is carried northward from the subtropics in the upper limb of the AMOC. In the upper 1000 m at 40°N, salty anomalies due to increased evaporation largely cancel the buoyancy increase due to warming. Therefore, in CMIP5, temperature dynamics are responsible for AMOC weakening, while freshwater forcing instead acts to strengthen the circulation in the net. These results indicate that past modeling studies of AMOC weakening, which rely on freshwater hosing in the subpolar gyre, may not be directly applicable to a more complex warming scenario.
    Description: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also thank John Marshall for helpful discussions on the driving mechanisms of the AMOC, and three anonymous reviewers whose comments greatly improved the manuscript. This work was supported by NASA Headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Award 80NSSC17K0372, and by National Science Foundation Award OCE-1433132.
    Description: 2020-07-20
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Thermohaline circulation ; Water masses/storage ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Climate models
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  • 7
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    Intergyre salt transport in the climate warming response (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(1), (2020): 255-268, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0166.1.
    Description: Regional connectivity is important to the global climate salinity response, particularly because salinity anomalies do not have a damping feedback with atmospheric freshwater fluxes and may therefore be advected over long distances by ocean circulation, resulting in nonlocal influences. Climate model intercomparison experiments such as CMIP5 exhibit large uncertainty in some aspects of the salinity response, hypothesized here to be a result of ocean dynamics. We use two types of Lagrangian particle tracking experiments to investigate pathways of exchange for salinity anomalies. The first uses forward trajectories to estimate average transport time scales between water cycle regimes. The second uses reverse trajectories and a freshwater accumulation method to quantitatively identify remote influences in the salinity response. Additionally, we compare velocity fields with both resolved and parameterized eddies to understand the impact of eddy stirring on intergyre exchange. These experiments show that surface anomalies are readily exchanged within the ocean gyres by the mean circulation, but intergyre exchange is slower and largely eddy driven. These dynamics are used to analyze the North Atlantic salinity response to climate warming and water cycle intensification, where the system is broadly forced with fresh surface anomalies in the subpolar gyre and salty surface anomalies in the subtropical gyres. Under these competing forcings, strong intergyre eddy fluxes carry anomalously salty subtropical water into the subpolar gyre which balances out much of the local freshwater input.
    Description: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also thank the creators of the SODA and ECCO reanalysis products. This work was supported by NASA Headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Award 80NSSC17K0372, and by National Science Foundation Award OCE-1433132. The SODA outputs used here can be accessed at http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ocean/, and the ECCO outputs at https://ecco.jpl.nasa.gov/. Data from the CMIP5 ensemble is available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/. The particle tracking code used for these experiments can be found at https://github.com/slevang/particle-tracking.
    Description: 2020-07-20
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Eddies ; Hydrologic cycle ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Transport ; Climate change
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  • 8
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    An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(9), (2020): 3863-3882, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1.
    Description: The direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow-cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January–March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. An SIC impact on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2°–3°C decade−1 winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40–60 m decade−1 increase in the height of the Iceland high, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed.
    Description: This research was supported by the Blue-Action project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant 727852) and by the National Science Foundation (OPP 1736738).
    Description: 2020-10-06
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Ice loss/growth
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  • 9
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    A role for the equatorial undercurrent in the ocean dynamical thermostat (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 6245-6261, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0513.1.
    Description: Reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) based on instrumental observations suggest that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient has increased over the twentieth century. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al., observations of a concurrent weakening of the zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation are not. Here we show, using heat and momentum budget calculations on an ocean reanalysis dataset, that a seasonal weakening of the zonal atmospheric circulation is in fact consistent with cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and thus an increase in the zonal SST gradient. This cooling is driven by a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in response to decreased upper-ocean westward momentum associated with weakening equatorial zonal wind stress. This process can help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory twentieth-century trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean. Moreover, it is shown that coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) do not correctly simulate this process; we identify a systematic bias in the relationship between changes in equatorial surface zonal wind stress in the EEP and EUC strength that may help to explain why observations and CGCMs have opposing trends in the zonal SST gradient over the twentieth century.
    Description: 2019-01-11
    Keywords: Tropics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Trends
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  • 10
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    Robust warming pattern of global subtropical oceans and its mechanism (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8574–8584, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00809.1.
    Description: The subsurface ocean response to anthropogenic climate forcing remains poorly characterized. From the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a robust response of the lower thermocline is identified, where the warming is considerably weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics and high latitudes. The lower thermocline change is inversely proportional to the thermocline depth in the present climatology. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the subtropical gyre change in contrast to natural variability for which wind dominates, and the ocean response is insensitive to the spatial pattern of surface warming. An analysis based on a ventilated thermocline model shows that the pattern of the lower thermocline change can be interpreted in terms of the dynamic response to the strengthened stratification and downward heat mixing. Consequently, the subtropical gyres become intensified at the surface but weakened in the lower thermcline, consistent with results from CMIP experiments.
    Description: The work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955600), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41125019, 41206021), and the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS 1249145, 1305719).
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean circulation ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Climate change
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  • 11
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    Centennial changes of the global water cycle in CMIP5 models (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 6489–6502, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0143.1.
    Description: The global water cycle is predicted to intensify under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Here the nature and strength of the expected changes for the ocean in the coming century are assessed by examining the output of several CMIP5 model runs for the periods 1990–2000 and 2090–2100 and comparing them to a dataset built from modern observations. Key elements of the water cycle, such as the atmospheric vapor transport, the evaporation minus precipitation over the ocean, and the surface salinity, show significant changes over the coming century. The intensification of the water cycle leads to increased salinity contrasts in the ocean, both within and between basins. Regional projections for several areas important to large-scale ocean circulation are presented, including the export of atmospheric moisture across the tropical Americas from Atlantic to Pacific Ocean, the freshwater gain of high-latitude deep water formation sites, and the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation with implications for interbasin mass transports.
    Description: This research was supported by NASA Grant NNX12AF59GS03.
    Description: 2016-02-15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Hydrologic cycle ; Salinity ; Water budget ; Water vapor
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  • 12
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    How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 4653–4687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1.
    Description: Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.
    Description: This work was initiated at the Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS) V Symposium, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through collaborative Grants SES-0932916 and SES-0931402. CCU was supported by a University of New South Wales Vice-Chancellor Fellowship and the Penzance Endowed Fund and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Fund at WHOI. TET was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Award DE-EE0004397. NC was funded by NSF Grant EAR-1204774. We are indebted to the FORMAS-funded Land Use Today and Tomorrow (LUsTT) project (Grant 211-2009-1682) for financial support.
    Keywords: Australia ; North America ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Agriculture
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  • 13
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    Ups and downs in western Crete (Hellenic subduction zone) (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group
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    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Studies of past sea-level markers are commonly used to unveil the tectonic history and seismic behavior of subduction zones. We present new evidence on vertical motions of the Hellenic subduction zone as resulting from a suite of Late Pleistocene - Holocene shorelines in western Crete (Greece). Shoreline ages obtained by AMS radiocarbon dating of seashells, together with the reappraisal of shoreline ages from previous works, testify a long-term uplift rate of 2.5-2.7 mm/y. This average value, however, includes periods in which the vertical motions vary significantly: 2.6-3.2 mm/y subsidence rate from 42 ka to 23 ka, followed by ~7.7 mm/y sustained uplift rate from 23 ka to present. The last ~5 ky shows a relatively slower uplift rate of 3.0-3.3 mm/y, yet slightly higher than the long-term average. A preliminary tectonic model attempts at explaining these up and down motions by across-strike partitioning of fault activity in the subduction zone.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5677
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: coastal geomorphology ; tectonic rates ; paleoshorelines ; subduction ; Crete ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
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    On the attribution of a single event to climate change (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8297–8301, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00399.1.
    Description: There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisingly wide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.
    Description: GH acknowledges funding from the Federal Ministry for Education and Research. MA acknowledges partial support from the Giannini Foundation.
    Description: 2015-05-15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Statistics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 15
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    Cold tongue and warm pool ENSO events in CMIP5 : mean state and future projections (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.
    Description: The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
    Description: 2014-10-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; ENSO ; Climate models ; Model evaluation/performance
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 16
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    Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC) (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013]. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 6775–6800, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00184.1.
    Description: Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. SCD acknowledges support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSFAGS- 1048827).
    Description: 2014-03-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Oceanic chemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 17
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    Direct interaction between the Gulf Stream and the shelfbreak south of New England (2012)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 2 (2012): 553, doi:10.1038/srep00553.
    Description: Sea surface temperature imagery, satellite altimetry, and a surface drifter track reveal an unusual tilt in the Gulf Stream path that brought the Gulf Stream to 39.9°N near the Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak—200 km north of its mean position—in October 2011, while a large meander brought Gulf Stream water within 12 km of the shelfbreak in December 2011. Near-bottom temperature measurements from lobster traps on the outer continental shelf south of New England show distinct warming events (temperature increases exceeding 6°C) in November and December 2011. Moored profiler measurements over the continental slope show high salinities and temperatures, suggesting that the warm water on the continental shelf originated in the Gulf Stream. The combination of unusual water properties over the shelf and slope in late fall and the subsequent mild winter may affect seasonal stratification and habitat selection for marine life over the continental shelf in 2012.
    Description: Profiler data were made available by the Ocean Observatory Initiative (OOI) during the construction phase of the project. The OOI is funded by the National Science Foundation and managed by the Consortium for Ocean Leadership. Drifter data were provided by Tim Shaw and David Calhoun at Cape Fear Community College.GGGwas supported by NSFGrant OCE-1129125. RET was supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region. MA was supported by the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists.
    Keywords: Ecology ; Climate change ; Atmospheric science ; Oceanography
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    On the maximum observed wind speed in a randomly sampled hurricane (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 1262-1265, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2803.1.
    Description: There is considerable interest in detecting a long-term trend in hurricane intensity possibly related to large-scale ocean warming. This effort is complicated by the paucity of wind speed measurements for hurricanes occurring in the early part of the observational record. Here, results are presented regarding the maximum observed wind speed in a sparsely randomly sampled hurricane based on a model of the evolution of wind speed over the lifetime of a hurricane.
    Description: Support for this work was provided by NOAA Grant NA17RJ1223.
    Keywords: Hurricanes ; Wind ; Tropical cyclones ; Wind gusts ; Statistical techniques ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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