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  • Articles  (183)
  • Springer  (183)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Stanford University
  • 1970-1974  (183)
  • Political Science
  • 1
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 47-55 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we confront the problem of why prisons are not a more effective tool for dealing with criminals. Several sources of this problem are suggested, and reasonably operational solutions are proposed. These solutions are motivated by basic principles of economics, and some broader consequences of this framework for dealing with criminal activity are briefly discussed.
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  • 2
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 71-81 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A summary of a panel discussion by seven participants in the Federal Communications Commission's cable television rulemaking. Analysis of the potential impact of cable on over-the-air broadcasting was a prominent part of the rulemaking; but did it make any difference in the outcome? The panelists discussed how analysis was used and what effect it had on the rules finally adopted. It was agreed that analysis was used, not as a tool in the hands of decisionmakers, but rather as a weapon in the hands of the contending parties. Nevertheless, analysis had an important effect by strengthening the FCC's perceptions of cable's possible benefits and damping fears of its offsetting harms, resulting in a compromise outcome that is more encouraging to cable growth than it otherwise would have been.
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  • 3
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 237-238 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
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  • 4
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 239-244 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
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  • 5
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 245-255 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Applying what is in effect a roles and missions approach to the management of the office of the chief planner in large scale public operations is at variance with modern public administration theories. However, a definitional approach is advanced here as a needed step in organizing and managing the policy-making process, which in most agencies is in constant flux. Five key functions are defined: Planning, Analysis, Research, Demonstration and Evaluation. A simplified scenario is used to show how these functions and their management interact over several years of policy-making. Activities identified with each function are spaced chronologically and are shown to be mutually reinforcing. The scenario also makes extensive use of the initial earmarking of portions of the Research and Evaluation budgets for coordinated use in response to requirements growing out of the overall policy determination process.
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  • 6
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 257-270 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In an age when there are increasing pressures on social scientists to produce knowledge that is directly relevant for dealing with problems confronting societies, it is useful to look at the scholar as an artisan. A producer-consumer relationship can then be identified. In such a relationship the kind of protection that consumers have under modern commercial codes for ordinary products should also protect them when they “purchase” the products of social scientists. While such protection is reasonable, it is not reasonable to have the state enforce the warranties. This might destroy the independent academy. The professoriate collectively must enforce the warranties in a guild-like manner.
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  • 7
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 1-14 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract With the rise to eminence and influence of scientists in recent years the distinction between scientific judgment and the judgment of scientists has been increasingly blurred. In particular, the meaning and definition of the social sciences and of their auxiliary or more applied disciplines has become confused. On the one hand, several value-centered undertakings such as policy analysis or planning have laid claim to status as sciences, while on the other hand, social scientists have increasingly attacked the legitimacy or reasonableness of the goal of value-free social science. Scientific publicists further confuse the discussion by arguing for the discovery of a value-free, scientific basis for society in which applied science equals policy. The result has been to damage the effectiveness of both scientific and nonscientific efforts, and to confuse the relationship of their activities in the minds of those who regularly feel compelled to cross a variety of scientific and nonscientific frontiers.
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  • 8
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 29-46 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article presents systems approach to the measurement of the performance of public enterprises in India. Thus it is a movement from a narrow concept of efficiency to a broader approach wherein measurement of performance is linked to the achievement of objectives. The need for such an approach is based on the theoretical developments and set against the problems currently experienced by public enterprises in India. As an alternative a three-tier objective framework, with standards, and a set of agencies for evaluation is recommended. Finally the problems of application of the three-tier objectives are discussed.
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  • 9
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 89-100 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper attempts to present an analytical framework of analysis of problems relating to public systems. Current optimization models, which originated in the private sector, are not adequate to handle the complexity of the decision making processes in public policy analysis. The proposed model aims at lessening ideological debates over statements of goals, and it emphasizes policy selection through goal redefinitions where both goals and policies are formulated simultaneously. The model is based on an iterative process where consensus over policies is arrived at between the policy maker and the constituents of the public system. The principal feature of the model is that it incorporates political debates and bargains, and provides for the development of insight.
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  • 10
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 131-133 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Growth has for long been accepted as one of the major objectives of most people. Recently it has been challenged from a number of directions and the challengers have been counter-challenged. The inadequacy of scientific evidence lays the field open for much controversy, but the questions which have been brought into prominence are of great importance and demand answers. These answers in turn require knowledge associated with many branches of the physical, biological and social sciences. The techniques of operational research can be and are being used to assemble and blend the evidence. These techniques can also show up the gaps and the obstacles in the path to progress.
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  • 11
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 213-236 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In most developing countries strategic decision-making has been largely based on false premises that have led to destructive results. One set of false premises stems from the assumption that development can be dissociated from the destructively exponential growth in developed countries, from the limits on the planet's physical resources and from complex ecological linkages. Another set is grounded on the popular myths of entrenched development economics: particularly, the enshrining of GNP as the overall indicator of “progress,” and the concomitant withdrawal of attention from poverty and concentrated wealth, unemployment, and the injurious effects of many “modern” technologies. These destructive premises tend to reinforce the evolving institutions of new-style empire and oligarchy. More successful development requires standing present development policies on their head through development goals calling for (1) a recognition of redistributive and nonmaterial growth possibilities, (2) redistributive, material and nonmaterial growth in developing countries, (3) redistributive, nonmaterial growth in overdeveloped countries, with a major slowing down of material consumption, (4) large-scale employment projects in developing countries, and (5) the fostering and use of more constructive technologies. All such shifts, however, would require—and tend to lead toward—substantial, long-term changes in the sociopolitical structure of developing countries and the world society.
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  • 12
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 271-296 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Despite the promising advances in the construction and use of social indicators, there has been little application to the formulation, monitoring, or evaluation of foreign policy. In the formulation stage—our concern here—predictor or early warning indicators could be very useful. The annual “state of the world” message contains many such predictive indicators of war, but in a purely verbal and intuitive form. Three of these (prior war, relative capabilities, and alliance levels) are converted into operational language and then put to the empirical test. In general, the indicators do not predict war (over the past 150 years) as postulated by the Administration. These tests are, however, very incomplete, and our objective is not to evaluate the Administration's arguments, but to suggest one way in which indicators could improve the quality of foreign policy formulation.
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  • 13
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 317-341 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper reviews the quality assessment literature, presents a study which compares five different methods of assessing quality of care, and proposes policy recommendations. Results are: (1) Most quality assessment issues are a century old. (2) The results of assessment of quality of care are dependent on the method used; therefore, more methodologic research is needed. (3) The use of lists of criteria, concerning what a physician does, to assess quality of care could result in decreased efficiency in the health system by requiring the performance of ineffective procedures. (4) It is not certain that examination of the level of care rendered will increase the health level of the population; therefore, any national program which assesses quality of care must be prospectively evaluated. (5) A quality assessment system must be concerned with both the population who received services at the institution, and the population who did not but for whom the institution is responsible.
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  • 14
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 415-431 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A political activist needs to pick up early warning signals that “something is happening” which might require his attention. The “something” could be an emergent danger or opportunity. An ideal-typical warning system is postulated to account for what is believed to be the extraordinary infrequency of activists being caught off guard under most “routine” conditions. Such a system would ideally meet four criteria: rapidity, comprehensiveness, validity, and selectivity. The postulated system rests on what Anthony Downs has called “subformal” communications channels among individuals and groups interrelated by principles of specialization and the division of labor.
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  • 15
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 433-451 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper examines research on the diffusion of innovation, the final stage in the process of technological change. The focus rests primarily on two traditions in diffusion research: that of economists and that of sociologists. Diffusion researchers in these and related disciplines have made significant contributions to the understanding of the dynamics of processes of change; yet the state of the art in diffusion research is not equal to the sum of its parts. This is due in large measure to disciplinary parochialism: scholars have concentrated on those innovations, diffusion environments, explanatory variables, and analytical methodologies which are most compatible with their particular disciplines, despite the fact that diffusion is not a discipline-specific phenomenon. Deficiencies in current understanding of diffusion are examined in the context of this and other significant problems. The paper concludes by considering the policy relevance of diffusion research and suggesting issues with which future research might productively be concerned.
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  • 16
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 15-27 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Q methodology is employed for purposes of providing an instrumental base to Lasswell's concept of the continuing decision seminar. Policy-making is regarded as essentially subjective and value-laden in nature, hence the use of instruments to assist in the micromodeling of complex decision processes—as embodied in decision seminars—must give centrality to human judgment. The factor-analytic procedures proposed are applied first to a life-history seminar. Suggestions are then made for the extension of these methods to future seminars, decision-making, and to the policy sciences more generally.
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  • 17
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 83-87 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
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  • 18
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract New York City's Office of Neighborhood Government was created in 1971 to coordinate renewed attempts at decentralizing municipal operations. The decentralization was primarily of an administrative nature, with emphasis on expanding district (neighborhood) management. This study examined decision-making at the district level. The major focus of inquiry was the nature of decision-making responsibilities in five municipal agencies, and the degree to which district officers acted as autonomous managers before and after administrative decentralization had occurred. The results showed that major shifts in responsibilities occurred only in one management function, inter-agency communication. For other functions, such as budget and personnel allocations, priority setting, and information gathering, central headquarters retained major decision-making responsibility. The study thus casts doubt on administrative decentralization as a feasible alternative for reorganizing municipal services to increase service responsiveness to neighborhoods.
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  • 19
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 117-127 
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  • 20
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 129-130 
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  • 21
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 169-190 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In a recent paper published in the Economic Journal, Professor William D. Nordhaus of Yale University reviewed World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester. In his criticism, Nordhaus signals three “serious problems” and several additional “questionable assumptions” of sufficient importance to undermine the usefulness of Forrester's book. However, a careful examination of his analysis shows that each point made by Nordhaus rests on a misunderstanding of World Dynamics, a misuse of empirical data, or an inability to analyze properly the dynamic behavior of the model by static equilibrium methods. The three “serious problems” raised by Nordhaus concern the assumptions that connect industrialization to net birth rates in World Dynamics, the representation of technology and production within the world model, and the impact of prices on global resource use. The analysis presented here refutes the Nordhaus arguments and shows that World Dynamics is consistent with his references to real-world data on population, production, and capital accumulation.
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  • 22
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 191-211 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyses several economic growth models to evaluate their usefulness for policymaking. The assumptions underlying some of the simple growth models are questionable and they are narrow in scope. A comparative statics model is broad in scope, but it fails to deal with mechanisms of adaptation and adjustments or with cases of discontinuity, increasing returns, and unlimited growth. The dynamic growth models tend to give undue emphasis to capital and labour. The Malthusian model has proven historically wrong. The Meadows model is broader in scope, but its assumptions are mostly not scientifically established and its use of quantitative data is careless. The above models are also defective because of over-aggregations and under-specifications. They all fail to take fully into account technological and institutional changes, which have been responsible for four-fifths of economic growth in the past and are expected to help overcome the limits to future growth. Needed are models based on an acceptable growth theory, which take into account all basic factors (including technological and institutional changes) as interrelated elements and give adequate attention to the mechanisms of adaptation and adjustments.
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  • 23
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract One means by which planning agencies may “hear” the constructive views of the public is the questionnaire technique. “A questionnaire is not just a list of questions...;. It is essentially a scientific instrument for measurement and for correlation of particular kinds of data ...; it has to be specially designed.” (Oppenheim). This paper considers the problems of questionnaire design, a number of examples of the use of the questionnaire in the United States and Britain, and attempts to draw lessons and profit from experience for those people committed to the use of the technique in exercises of public participation in the planning process.
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 309-315 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract There has been a significant shift in government towards decentralized power and responsibility as exemplified by the State and Local Assistance Act. The trend occurs at a time when society faces the double challenge of encouraging more and better informed, public participation in decision-making, and also improving the efficiency in governmental delivery of services. A proposal is made to use general revenue sharing moneys to meet this dual challenge through a revenue sharing voucher program (RSVP). The program entails turning back to citizens the incoming funds in the form of vouchers to be allocated by them to various local government agencies. The implications for the City of Seattle are discussed as an example of the operation and the tradeoffs involved.
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 363-373 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The success of decentralization experiments depends ironically on central government—and, in particular, on the character of City Hall initiatives, designs, and administrative organization. Urban administrators were forced to experiment “in the dark” with decentralization, and their initiatives often traced an erratic, evolutionary course marked by false steps and by serendipity. In particular, programs that looked promising from a City Hall perspective often failed because they were insensitive to street-level behavior. City Hall initiatives have also been hampered by problems of cooperation between citizens and public employees and by coordination within government. Seen in this light, successful decentralization requires a learning process in which citizens and public employees develop strategies for working together on focused neighborhood problems.
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  • 26
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 479-479 
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  • 27
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 481-484 
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  • 28
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 101-115 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Telephone conference calls could be used to extend participation in public decision-making. In order to clarify the involved problems and prospects we conducted 16 nine-member conference calls discussing and voting on a public issue. The discussions were recorded for analysis and a questionnaire was administered. The meetings worked well despite the isolation of the participants and the lack of visual contact. Access to the floor was easy, attention good, and participation was eager. The participants felt that the analysis of the topic had been effective. The chairman's guidance of the discussion was judged effective, and his actions legitimate. Additionally, the data suggest what we might call greater “intellectual elbow room”—less pressure to go along with the group opinion than in face-to-face meetings, and more ease in changing opinions and positions. The disagreements about the issue did not spill over into emotional hostility. The participants were quite pleased with the conduct and efficacy of the electronic meetings. These findings suggest that a mass participatory system, based upon such electronic meetings, can also be used to provide wider involvement in decision-making in our society.
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 137-147 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Man's relationship to the natural environment and nature's influence upon human life are among the oldest topics of speculation. Until modern times the major reason for concern was the prospect of “diminishing returns.” It was thought that population and economic growth would press against natural resource limits, and that economic welfare would fall to subsistence levels. In modern times in developed nations the prospect of “diminishing returns” has been avoided. Population increase has abated to rates which promise stability in population numbers. Technology, capital accumulation, and improvements in labor force have yielded “increasing returns.” Per capita output grows at 2 or 3 % per year. The modern concern is quality of environment and quality of life. The technology, industrialization and agglomeration which have yielded increasing returns of goods per capita have side effects. These are pollution and crowding, increased needs for public goods, expanded monopoly in the market places, and dilemmas of choice from affluence. The task for modern societies is to bend their enlarged technology and productive power to improving quality of environment and, more generally, quality of life.
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  • 30
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    Notes: Abstract Section I discusses the “growthmania” mind-set and considers various types of limits to growth ignored by adherents to this majority position. Section II investigates the conceptual roots of growthmania: the orthodox doctrines of relative scarcity and absolute wants. It is argued that at the margin the opposite categories of absolute scarcity and relative wants are more important, and that just as the implication of the former categories was growthmania, so the implication of the latter (opposite) categories is a steady-state economy. Section III defines and discusses the alternative to a growth-oriented economy, namely a steadystate economy. Section IV discusses the notions of efficiency and technical progress from the steady-state perspective, and argues that growth in output flow as conventionally measured results, beyond some point, in a reduction in both the service efficiency of the stock and the maintenance efficiency of the throughput, and thereby makes throughput growth a perverse index of welfare. In Section V the issue of transition to and appropriate institutions for a steady-state are discussed. Section VI considers in more detail an institution for controlling aggregate throughput, namely a system of auctioned depletion quotas, and contrasts it with the orthodox recommendation of pollution taxes.
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 343-361 
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    Notes: Abstract Improvement is required in the theoretical bases of health planning in order for needed advances to occur in health planning practice. Four major planning strategies are utilized in other public policy sectors: the rational, the incremental, the mixed scanning and the radical strategies. All four strategies are potentially useful in health planning and their impact is suggested in a health planning situation.
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  • 32
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    Notes: Abstract The title refers to the widely held view that advanced western societies (particularly the United States) have been vastly more successful in meeting certain kinds of objectives, than others, and that rectifying this imbalance is a high priority social objective. The paper is concerned with three intellectual traditions that have purported to explain the reasons for the problem, and to provide guidance for helping with the lot of the ghetto. One of these traditions views the problems in terms of inadequate policy machinery, and the resolution in terms of better analysis feeding into the policymaking process. A second views the problem in terms of organizational structure, and searches for a solution in terms of institutional reform or redesign. Still a third tradition sees the problem as stemming from the past allocation of scientific and technical talent, and proposes a solution in terms of a significant reallocation of research and development activity. It is apparent that these traditions of analysis, neither separately nor together, have been very successful in resolving social problems. The purpose of the essay is, through examination of the intellectual traditions and their interaction with the policymaking process, to try to illuminate the nature of their weaknesses and, if possible, to see what lessons can be learned regarding how to make analysis more useful, and map out some potentially fruitful directions for intellectual exploration.
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    Notes: Abstract Residential solar energy applications can provide a significant fraction of the U.S. energy budget. However, to do so, they must be combined with other energy-conserving strategies and diffused rapidly throughout the housing industry. Discussed are the potential resistances to the diffusion of solar energy within the U.S. housing industry; implications for the application of residential solar energy are treated. Richard Schoen is an architect and faculty member of the University of California at Los Angeles' School of Architecture and Urban Planning. He is also a staff consultant to the Solar Energy Team at Caltech. An earlier version of this paper was prepared and delivered at the International Solar Energy Conference, “Le soleil au service de l'homme,” Paris, July 2–6, 1973.
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    Policy sciences 5 (1974), S. 469-478 
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    Notes: Abstract Based on what appears to be required for fully supporting a proposal for policy action, a series of interrelated propositional types is suggested as a tool for the design and critique of policy arguments. The kinds of criticisms to which different prepositional types are susceptible and the impacts of these on a policy argument are explored as are the uses persons in different roles might make of these criticisms. Finally, as an example, the typology is applied to a portion of the President's 1973 State of the Union Address.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 41-61 
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    Notes: Abstract Social planning deals centrally with human values—values which are important even though they do not appear as explicit factors in the classical problems of social welfare. The philosophical question as to whether facts can provide a logical basis for values need not be considered by the planner. He focuses, rather, on the specific interplay of values and facts in the concrete context of his concern. In the analysis of this interplay we can distinguish a number ofprinciples, criteria for the specification of social ends; for instance, the maximin principle, that improvements in a value distribution consisting in cutting off the bottom of the distribution have priority over raising the top. Social ends, in turn, are analysable intoideals, goals, andobjectives—directions, regions and points, respectively, in the value space. Cutting across these are the desiredqualities of the experience of pursuing those ends, qualities allowing for the assessment of planned alternatives by configurational judgment, rather than by a presumed summation of component values.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 75-84 
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper the concept “series of decisions” is introduced and defined as the total number of decisions made in the attainment of a goal. The series are analytically divided into two types of decisions, programming and implementation—the first ones are those made during the process of converting policy goals into programs, and the second, those made during the implementation of the programs. The distinction is important because different actors and institutions are involved in the two phases. It is hypothesized that the relation between the time of programming decisions and the time of implementation of decisions tends to be zero the less effective and the less numerous the organizations participating in the programming phase. A list of factors which could be useful in the process of testing and modifying the hypothesis is presented. The division of health environment of the health ministry of Colombia is used to exemplify the concept of “series of decisions,” and to show the utility of the analytical distinction between programming and implementation decisions.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 309-325 
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    Notes: Abstract A policy simulative model with the main purpose of simulating the effects of alternative policy moves and obtaining an accurate read-out of resulting urban-suburban conditions is the focus of this paper. The model deals with the movement of various population groups and the resulting effects on some very broad indicators of city-suburban life, rather than with particular topics like transportation, land use and the like. The level of abstraction is thus intermediate and is directed at providing practical policy suggestions for a particular city—Newark—for which the model is calibrated. The model, however, is general enough in nature so that it can be applied to other urban-suburban complexes and therefore the policy suggestions made on a fairly broad basis. The outputs of the model are graphically represented to show the results of alternative policies which then may be compared. As a side benefit the inputs to the model can also serve as a “social report” on the present status of an area. Policy questions to be answered by the model include: Should a city budget be directed somewhat differently? Should a city ask the state or federal government for funding and for how much? What may be expected from imposing a city sales tax, weighing the revenue benefit against costs of lost sales or citizens? And last, would the federal government not be better off by simply giving money to the poor directly instead of to cities?
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 297-307 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper presents an empirical analysis of individuals in policy formulating and policy implementing roles. Data for the comparison are from interviews with a random sample of 119 New Zealand middle-level public administrators from 27 government departments. The individuals in the policy formulating roles were slightly younger; however, those in the formulating and implementing roles varied little from each other in terms of social background, educational attainment and career patterns. Few differences were evident in regard to job satisfaction, decisional authority, and hierarchical relations. Significant differences between policy formulators and policy implementors were discovered in terms of work load, career aspirations, and awareness of political influences in governmental policymaking. From the evidence of this study, the New Zealand administrative system does not allocate policy formulating roles to individuals different from those who implement policies. Differences between formulators and implementors in the New Zealand system appear to stem from the nature of the work of the two policy roles.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 379-386 
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 365-378 
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    Notes: Abstract A first generation model simulating the Detroit housing market has been developed for the City of Detroit. The model has the capability both to assist the City in planning for future housing and renewal needs as well as to aid in research to improve understanding of the functional relationships in the housing market. The key inputs to the model are census tract data describing specific attributes of the households, dwelling units and neighborhoods in the City. The model can provide forecasts of future levels of demand for housing with the specified structural and locational attributes. By operating the model under varying assumptions concerning public actions, it is possible to simulate the effects of the public policies being considered. The model is based on what is known, but it is designed to permit the development of a second generation model in response to advances in the state of the art of urban simulation modeling.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 467-490 
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 509-521 
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    Notes: Conclusion The creation of improved systems of world order requires great care. Alternative configurations may or may not prove more suitable, and each must be painstakingly examined on its own merits. For those of us who are actively concerned with studying about world order, this means the application of a far more rigorous conception of inquiry to our subject. So long as we cannot accept the Leibnizian claim that this is certainly the best of all possible worlds, our search for better ones must certainly be the best of all possible searches. This means that models of world order must be derived from appropriate hypotheses and subjected to the strictures of systematic analysis. World order studies must be treated in accordance with the strict canons of inquiry outlined in this essay. Only then can they begin to develop the highly generalized system of theory that characterizes any science.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 21-27 
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    Notes: Abstract Poverty and unemployment are two critical issues facing the United States today. Linked to both of these is the federal minimum wage law. Established under the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, the purpose of the law was—and still is—to eliminate, as rapidly as possible, labor conditions thought to be harmful to the “health, efficiency, and general well-being of workers ... without substantially curtailing employment or earning power.”1 In other words, to eliminate low wages without eliminating jobs. This is a laudable goal, with which no one is likely to disagree. The question remains as to how effective the law has been in achieving this goal. Has it eliminated poverty? Or has it, to the contrary, had effects detrimental to those the law was designed to help? It is the contention here that the minimum wage law has played a significant role in causing unemployment among the most disadvantaged groups, including blacks, teenagers, unskilled workers, and people living in economically depressed regions. It is therefore proposed that further increases in the minimum wage be blocked and that the rate and coverage be held at the present level.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 29-39 
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    Notes: Abstract The utilization of quantitative methods in urban analysis is a complicated endeavor faced with many serious problems. The purpose of this paper is to inventory and explain the problems and pitfalls in their utilization. Three types of problems are catalogued: conceptual/technical, administrative and societal. Within the first two categories, the problems are further dimensioned as either analytical or decisional in nature. The place of quantitative methods in urban analysis is discussed first. Problems and pitfalls are then defined, catalogued and ordered sequentially as they confront the urban analyst and policy-maker. An assessment of quantitative methods in urban policy-making is presented and the organizational factors necessary for implementing successful quantitative urban analysis programs indicated. Throughout a general perspective is maintained and specific examples are employed to punctuate general propositions.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 113-125 
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 127-153 
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    Notes: Abstract Where planning does not measure up to expectations, which is almost everywhere, planners are handy targets. They have been too ambitious or they have not been ambitious enough. They have perverted their calling by entering into politics or they have been insensitive to the political dimensions of their task. They ignore national cultural mores at their peril or they capitulate to blind forces of irrationality. They pay too much attention to the relationship between one sector of the economy and another while ignoring analysis of individual projects, or they spend so much time on specific matters that they are unable to deal with movements of the economy as a whole. Planners can no longer define a role for themselves. From old American cities to British new towns, from the richest countries to the poorest, planners have difficulty in explaining who they are and what they should be expected to do. If they are supposed to doctor sick societies, the patient never seems to get well. Why can't the planners ever seem to do the right thing?
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 223-227 
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    Notes: Abstract Building on a suggestion by Adam Yarmolinsky that the Federal American government insure the equity that homeowners have developed in their property, we suggest some additional elements which would make a more complete urban policy package. Educational opportunity is seen as a critical element in property value within the American context and any scheme such as Yarmolinsky suggests needs to take into account the fact that “house price” reflects heavily the general judgment of the quality of the school to which that residence has access. Hence, a stabilization of the housing market is heavily dependent upon an equalization of educational opportunity. Two ideas to this end are suggested. One, the “school parity adjustment,” would grant funds directly to the school district, generally in inverse proportion to the assessed property valuation, and consistent with the funding required for a quality education. The second notion, the “urban tax credit” would help to rectify the desirability of suburban locations for parents of school age children by giving them tax credits for living in the city, and in effect, equalizing the subsidy which the government already provides suburban dwellers through insuring the school-inflated value of their property through Mortgage Insurance.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 211-221 
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    Notes: Abstract A model of resource allocations within a hierarchical bureaucracy is presented. Since at the departmental level programs of other departments overlap on certain objectives, allocations independently determined by departments are not optimal. It is well known that if only budgetary guidelines are transmitted by a central decision maker they are insufficient to assure desired allocations. A minimal set of guidelines exist which, when transmitted to departmental advisors, result in desired allocations.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 245-247 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper reports on research regarding the federal role with respect to racially discriminatory practices in public housing. It is a case study of federal efforts to deal with inadequate housing for low-income Americans, based on Public Housing in Chicago from 1963 through June 1971.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 275-295 
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    Notes: Abstract Arguments are presented for the reconsideration of models which guide planning behavior and structure planning organizations. Hierarchical organizations are contrasted with reticular organizations and the latter are presented as necessary for effective citizen participation. Legitimacy is presented as a fundamental basis of justifying planning action and historical shifts in forms of legitimacy are noted. Participation, as a form of legitimacy, and several aspects of participatory planning are discussed in terms of recent systems thinking. It is argued that participatory planning increases the effectiveness and adaptivity of the planning process and contributes adaptivity and stability to the societal system. Further, it is argued that citizen participation is an essential element in making the planning process a learning system. This leads to a strengthening of the definition and role of communities in the urban system, and to an unexpected requirement of planners who would adopt a participatory planning process.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 347-364 
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    Notes: Abstract During 1970 and 1971, the complex and politically sensitive OEO Legal Services Program received its first independent national evaluation. This paper describes how evaluators dealt with the policy issues arising during the evaluation. Their decisions involved the interaction of three factors: conceptual problems, access to data, and a sense of what would be relevant to public policy. They found only a small area of intersection between a large set of issues important to policy-makers and an equally large, but usually different, set of issues amenable to systematic research. One finding was that the program's use of full-time “poverty lawyers” is a less expensive way to provide poor clients with legal services than underwriting the fees of private lawyers would be. Another was that the Legal Services attorneys' strong emphasis on law reform apparently adds very little to the cost of providing more routine services.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 415-436 
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 437-451 
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 13-19 
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    Notes: Abstract Health planning theory has failed to operationalize the concept of rationality into terms useful for theory building. The concept of rationality has also generally not been translated into a useful tool for the health planning practitioner. In order to decrease the mystique associated with rationality and to aid in refinement of the concept, four attributes of health planning rationality are proposed: (1) Health planning rationality is “bounded” due to the magnitude of problems and man's limited problem-solving abilities; (2) Health planning rationality has multiple dimensions (technical, social, legal, political and economic); (3) The multiple dimensions of health planning rationality interact as complements and substitutes; and (4) Health planning rationality may be conceived of as the exposure of problems to cognitive processes.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 63-74 
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    Notes: Abstract The purpose of the paper is to present a frame of reference for selecting social indicators on the basis of values inherent in the concept of social welfare. It is assumed that these values can be captured by the terms Having, Loving and Being. A scheme for selecting indicators of comparative relevance is presented by cross-tabulating the basic value categories with a second set of categories here called elements of society. The point of departure is a conception of national societies as systems in which there are inputs, outputs, and a structure through which inputs and feedbacks flow. The inputs and outputs on the different value-dimensions can be assessed through measures of central tendencies whereas structure can be described through dispersion parameters and correlations.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 85-101 
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    Notes: Abstract Policy analysis in the U.S. and Canada tends to follow the methods of systems analysis and takes into account variables relating to substantive matters as well as political and administrative constraints that governments face in pursuing different alternatives. Comparative analysis of the political effectiveness of the two governments in implementing the results of analysis indicates that Canada has built-in constitutional advantages. Comparative assessment of bureaucratic skills in policy analysis and policy implementation suggests that the American system is relatively weaker in terms of implementation, but relatively stronger in terms of policy analytical skills. This is followed by an assessment of the attempts made by the U.S. government to improve its policymaking structures through the setting up of the Domestic Council and the reorganized OMB, and the Canadian attempts to improve its policymaking capabilities through a reorganized Cabinet committee system and the strengthening of the Privy Council Office. The final section suggests that analysis of values and norms should be an integral part of policy analysis. The scope of policy analysis should be extended to include long-term economic and political analyses.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 155-169 
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    Notes: Abstract The search for scientific bases for confronting problems of social policy is bound to fail, becuase of the nature of these problems. They are “wicked” problems, whereas science has developed to deal with “tame” problems. Policy problems cannot be definitively described. Moreover, in a pluralistic society there is nothing like the undisputable public good; there is no objective definition of equity; policies that respond to social problems cannot be meaningfully correct or false; and it makes no sense to talk about “optimal solutions” to social problems unless severe qualifications are imposed first. Even worse, there are no “solutions” in the sense of definitive and objective answers.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 229-244 
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    Notes: Abstract It is argued that by explicating rationality in terms of benefits balancing or outweighing costs instead of in terms of maximizing or satisficing something, a more adequate view of rationality is obtained.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 249-261 
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    Notes: Abstract Following the publication in 1968 ofIndicators of Social Change, a relatively large number of papers and books have appeared. This review-article systematically assesses some first attempts at the development of comprehensive systems of social indicators.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 327-336 
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    Notes: Abstract Researchers and policymakers alike have made the reduction of citizen alienation one of the important goals for decentralizing public services. Decentralization is thought to bring government closer to the public being served, and therefore to improve public attitudes toward government. No existing research fully tests this hypothesis. However, several national surveys provide sufficient data to examine the relationships between various types of citizen activity linked with decentralization and the two dimensions of political alienation, powerlessness/efficacy and distrust/trust. A review of these surveys reveals that decentralized activity, whether taking the form of citizen participation, citizen awareness of decentralized facilities, or service improvements, is consistently associated with people's sense of efficacy, but not to their sense of trust. The results thus suggest that decentralization may affect alienation in terms of reducing sense of powerlessness, but that it has no impact on people's trust in government. Decentralization of public services may therefore be one of many steps taken to reduce citizen alienation toward government, but it will not, contrary to expectations, significantly impact on alienation by itself.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 453-465 
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 1-11 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper discusses the impact that systems analysis has had on the welfare reform legislation of the last four years. After a general discussion of welfare reform's objectives and constraints, and their particular application to the family assistance proposal, the state of the art of systems analysis as related to welfare problems is described. The successes and failures of the cost-effectiveness approach in developing and modifying the proposal are outlined in analyses of major issues, including the proposal's impact on state welfare programs, work incentives, the integration of cash assistance with assistance in kind, and alternatives for welfare administration.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 103-111 
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    Notes: Abstract Norms are defined as specific but tacit standards of what is socially and individually acceptable; values as explicit but general statements of principle, of which the content is continually changing through changing norms, changing circumstances, changing policies and the accompanying ethical debate. The relation of norms, values and policies is shown by an historical example. The inherent conflict within both norms and values is discussed and the role of the policymaker is defined, both as an artist in conceiving and devising one among many possible but always partial realizations of contemporary norms and values, and as a partially conscious agent in reshaping the norms and values of his time. The psychological implications of this are briefly indicated.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 171-195 
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    Notes: Abstract Following on a short review of North American program evaluation experiences in elementary, secondary and post-secondary education, a summary is given of the major problems observed in such evaluation efforts. With this background assessment, the remainder of the paper attempts to specify objectives and criteria that seem appropriate in post-secondary program evaluation in the 1970's. Some attention is devoted to problems of implementing changes in efficiency through increasing productivity by a number of alternative strategies. Finally, some tentative suggestions are made as to possible routes to implementing program evaluation in post-secondary education.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 197-209 
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    Notes: Abstract There is an implicit assumption in most policy studies that once a policy has been formulated the policy will be implemented. This assumption is invalid for policies formulated in many Third World nations and for types of policies in Western societies. Third World governments tend to formulate broad, sweeping policies, and governmental bureaucracies often lack the capacity for implementation. Interest groups, opposition parties, and affected individuals and groups often attempt to influence the implementation of policy rather than the formulation of policy. A model of the policy implementation process is presented. Policy implementation is seen as a tension generating force in society. Tensions are generated between and within four components of the implementing process: idealized policy, implementing organization, target group, and environmental factors. The tensions result in transaction patterns which may or may not match the expectations of outcome of the policy formulators. The transaction patterns may become crystallized into institutions. Both the transaction patterns and the institutions may generate tensions which, by feedback to the policymakers and implementors, may support or reject further implementation of the policy. By application of the model, policymakers can attempt to minimize disruptive tensions which can result in the failure of policy outcomes to match policy expectations.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 337-346 
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    Notes: Abstract This article is designed to provide insight into methodologies that can be used to assess alternative emergency command and control systems for municipalities and law enforcement. Some potential pitfalls and errors are highlighted.
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    Policy sciences 4 (1973), S. 387-413 
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 27-45 
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    Notes: Abstract Societal factors are identified which are driving toward qualitative and quantitative changes in the pattern of crime in the United States. Some of these factors will amplify while others will diminish the importance of current categories of crime. They will also lead to new crimes or increased relative significance to certain crime categories. On the other hand, the interaction of these factors also may lead to the virtual extinguishment of some crimes or to their removal from the rosters of illegality. Against that background some opportunities and needs for public policy decisions and related research are suggested.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 47-58 
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    Notes: Abstract This document describes the role of the New York City Rand Institute and other research groups in the rent control reforms enacted by the New York City Council in June 1970, summarizes the major research and analytical studies performed in this connection by Institute staff members, and offers some lessons for those contemplating similar work for public agencies.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 1-25 
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    Notes: Abstract The new and rapidly changing environment of development administrators includes (1) the emergence of a world society of interdependent nations, (2) a rapid and confusing technological and scientific revolution, (3) the expansion of “service societies” in industrialized countries, (4) new major alternatives for war, neocolonialism, despotism and materialism, and (5) development problems of ascending complexity and difficulty. Post-industrial beginnings in modern management arise from a background of management thought and technique in agricultural epochs and the more recent industrial revolution. They encompass computer technology; operations research; systems approaches, including systems engineering, management information systems, and general systems research; cost-effectiveness analysis and PPBS; social indicators; and “future-casting.” Their development has contributed to a growing gulf between technique and capability, to a “triumph of technique over strategy” and a “retreat from human values.” Attention is directed to specific strategies and tactics of introducing modern management techniques in developing nations. The efforts to do this during the 1960 Development Decade are reviewed. The prospects for the 1970's are previewed, and suggestions offered for “problem area task forces” and the expansion of U.N. activities in advancing, not merely diffusing, the current “state of the art.” Since the most significant modern management advances have been tactical, a dozen principles of strategic decisionmaking are suggested: (1) responsible decisionmaking, (2) the conflict essence of problems, (3) selectivity, (4) total system appreciation, (5) relative proportions, (6) sequential model-using, (7) problem interrelationships, (8) jointed incrementalism, (9) organized and unorganized interests, (10) the emotional basis of rational action, (11) investment in future capabilities, and (12) power mobilization and use. The paper ends by raising vital questions on the improvement of managerial values. This is done by specific proposals for a code of managerial ethics and the formulation of more humanistic management goals.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 59-69 
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    Notes: Abstract The domain of interest is goal formation and policy planning at the national level. A preliminary research framework for analysis of national policy alternatives is defined. Included are the following basic elements: values, goals, attainments, strategies, societal processes, and societal indicators. Using this conceptual structure as a point of departure, an outline is given of the principal research problems to be addressed. Other possible applications of the framework are also described.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 71-80 
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    Notes: Abstract Implementation, from which flows operational policy, is an integral part of the policymaking process. This phenomenon is examined briefly as a socio-political process, an administrative task, a follow-on from systematic analysis, a problem in the diffusion and utilization of knowledge, and a basic capacity which is differentially distributed among organizations and subject to deliberate change. A three-dimensional framework for assessing the nature of implementation tasks and for making strategic choices in planning implementation is proposed and illustrated. Finally, implementation processes in a federalistic system are described as requiring multi-level participation of four classes of participants: administrative-bureaucratic, political leadership, rational-analytic and constituent elites. A variety of functions must be performed at federal, regional, and local levels to assure policy execution consistent with both policy designs and local contingencies.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 81-96 
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    Notes: Abstract This article discusses various ways of systematically measuring the time one would expect various administrative proceedings to consume relative to the time they actually consume taking into consideration the diverse complexity of such proceedings. The article uses the problem of administrative delay to illustrate the broader problem of creating a dependent criterion variable that measures the gap between the actual, empirical, or real situation on the one hand and the predicted, normative, or ideal situation on the other.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 117-124 
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 107-115 
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    Notes: Abstract Federal and state government efforts to improve the nation's health focus particular attention on the necessity of increasing the numbers of physicians. Yet, evidence from several studies suggest weak linkages between health and the number of physicians. The present study surveys civilian health and the number of physicians during the period of national mobilization in the U.S. in the 1940's. This period, where low physician/population ratios prevailed for several years, is unique in recent history and provides a useful reference for current health policy. Reduced numbers of physicians are shown to have had a measurable negative impact on civilian health over the period.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 97-106 
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    Notes: Abstract Rapidly growing interdependence of government policy decisionmaking and multiplying varieties of specialized knowledge, on the one hand, and continuing decline in democracy due to increasing distances between voter and the effective act of deciding, on the other, pressure political scientists to devise a more adequate system. Demospeciocracy proposes integration of both democratic and scientific values in a multi-leveled system. After discussing six assumed principles, the article presents nine different, but interdependent, agencies needed for the system: initiators, steerers, researchers, informers, examiners, voting supervisors, planners, judges, and administrators, and concludes with suggestions about how to introduce them.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 125-135 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper is critical of some loose speculations about cybernetics, computers and “systems,” especially as to their role in organization and planning. There is a widespread tendency to believe that human and organizational vagaries can be eliminated by some combination of the former techniques. This tendency is encouraged by a bias towards mechanistic and abstract solutions for social problems. Further, there is a failure to properly take into account “natural laws,” in the sense of limitations on human and organizational ability, when developing normative models for policy and planning problems. “Viable holistic models,” supposedly, should replace human and organizational haphazardness; attention has been devoted tosubstituting the machine-techniques for the man, rather than concentrating on man-machine interactions, based on selective adaptations to natural laws.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 137-151 
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 177-181 
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 153-161 
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    Notes: Abstract For almost four years New York City and the Rand Corporation have been engaged in an enterprise distinctive if not unique: the subjection of a wide variety of the City's problems to the scrutiny of independent analysts. This paper* is the attempt of a participant in that enterprise to describe the background of that effort and the novel arrangements made to institutionalize it, to outline the nature and effect of the analyses produced, and then to reflect on some of the lessons this effort has taught some of its participants.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 183-199 
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    Notes: Abstract An inquiry is made into California's efforts to utilize the blessings of science and systematic analysis in formulating public policy. Four alternate sources of scientific and analytic help have received the State's attention: profit-seeking firms, not-for-profit research organizations, universities, and in-house scientific staffs or advisory boards. Potentialities and limitations of each of the four sources are reviewed.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 201-208 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper reviews some of the difficulties of initiating and completing interdisciplinary research involving both bio-physical and social systems. Drawing on the author's experience as project director of a large interdisciplinary project concerned with man's effects on Lake Tahoe, it includes a structural analysis of the organization of universities which has the effect of inhibiting interdisciplinary research. Specific suggestions for the conduct and design of such projects are made. The political implications of recent changes in national science policy are also reviewed.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 163-176 
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    Notes: Abstract Difficulties have been encountered in attempting to apply benefit-cost analysis to the problem of determining resource allocations among social programs, especially when there are multiple outcomes associated with each of the programs. Further complications result when program outcomes are characterized as counteractive: a specific allocation of resources to a program is likely to achieve a favorable impact regarding certain objectives while that allocation is also likely to have an unfavorable impact regarding other objectives. A model which promises to be useful in determining optimal resource allocations among programs having counteractive outcomes is presented. Two steps are required for the use of the model: (1) values, reflecting priorities, need to be assigned to the various objectives that programs are intended to accomplish and (2) an ensemble of probabilistic functions relating resources to program outcomes needs to be specified and combined to reflect the value of an ensemble of programs. In addition to determining optimal resource allocations, the model provides insights into the consequences of resource decisions based on noneconomic considerations. An example illustrates the major features of the model.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 209-217 
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    Notes: Abstract Advocacy of neighborhood government should be based on a careful assessment of possible dangers and deficiencies, as well as merits. The obstacles to increasing neighborhood power include the costs of community organizing in terms of time and effort, community conflict, city-neighborhood conflict, and general political conflict. To persuade individuals to engage in collective action, it is necessary that the rewards of such action be greater than the personal costs. Serious participation is likely to occur only when neighborhood government programs offer visible rewards and work to solve concrete problems. There is a specific awareness that many unions and politicians will fight neighborhood government and that they have the power to damage or destroy it. There is also the sense that, whereas there has been success in developing community structures, it has been difficult to move government toward decentralization, toward more flexible administrative procedures.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 235-247 
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    Notes: Abstract The basic question posed is: How can a model of a major urban and/or regional subsystem (e.g. housing, health, education or transportation) be developed to maximize its utility for public policymakers? A technique to be used in the evaluation of the utility of such a model is presented. The proposed technique involves the construction of autility evaluation matrix. In constructing this matrix it is necessary to identify the following: (a) the potential users of the model, (b) the actions open to these users, and (c) the consequences which are considered by the users when evaluating alternative actions. Utility testing should become as commonplace and important as validity testing. The utility evaluation technique described in this paper is hardly the required test, but at least it can be viewed as a step in the right direction.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 265-266 
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 219-233 
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    Notes: Abstract The general problem of interdisciplinary relations and transdisciplinary integration has its counterpart in the field of education in the problem of producing generalists rather than specialists, and at the undergraduate college level, in the problem of devising a rational core curriculum. At present, neither the student nor the faculty knows why one mixture of courses is better or worse than another. This paper advocates a solution to this problem based on the development of a computerized model of the core curriculum in which the interrelated mutually relevant concepts of various disciplines would be associated with teaching time allocations proportional to their degree of conceptual relevance. The foundation for such a development is laid by a discussion of conceptualvs. personal relevance, of acculturationvs. exculturation, of educationvs. instruction, and of immediatevs. delayed motivation. An algorithmic procedure is then outlined which would result in a dynamic model allowing the determination of educational bottlenecks or critical paths in the communication network transforming inputs into outputs. The general concepts of dynamic programming, program evaluation and review techniques, system and decision theory are used in developing the algorithm. The existence of such a model would allow a rational optimization of the curriculum and would make the present perennial trial-and-error experimentation in curriculum design unnecessary, since the computer could test various alternatives quickly and efficiently.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 267-271 
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 249-263 
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    Notes: Abstract If we agree that social indicators indicate or measure only within the context of a theory of social change, and if we further assume that theories of social change which deal only with social conditions, behavioral interchanges or transactions, and the material environment, are likely to be unsuccessful because they ignore the “mental” side of life, it follows that we will want our theories of social change, and the social indicators associated with them, to incorporate the cultural and group psychological aspects of social behavior. When we look to possible data bases in search of raw material for social indicators of culture and group psychology there are, broadly speaking, two possibilities. Data may be gathered from interviews or from cultural artifacts. But interview response data, because of (a) their reactive character; (b) the difficulty of compiling time-series of responses; (c) the impossibility of making use of historical sources and (d) difficulties of validation against indicators external to the survey research context are, perhaps, less than ideal as a possible basis for social indicator systems. This leaves us with the possibility, and with the problem, of developing group psychological and cultural indicators from an analysis of cultural artifacts: literary documents, films, political speeches and other sources of this sort.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 273-274 
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 275-297 
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    Notes: Abstract This report presents, discusses and extends strategic models for representing the process of merging records from different sources when confidentiality of the records is required by law or custom. Examples and variations on the models cover simple situations, such as eliciting anonymous data from previously identified respondents, as well as more complex merge operations, such as merging files from different data archives and merging data under code linkage systems. The versatility and potential corruptibility of the models are also discussed.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 299-323 
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    Notes: Abstract One of the most significant features of scientific advance has been the gradual concrescence of previously distinct theories, methods, disciplines and cognitive modes. Proponents of the conception that the policy sciences should comprise a rationally structured supradiscipline rightly emphasize the desirability of accelerating this slow process of intellectual unification. However, this enterprise continues to be obstructed by failure to realize that interdisciplinary principles sufficient to generate a legitimate unification of scientific and humane concerns of the policy sciences can issue only from philosophical reconstruction. A normative (value-sensitive) mode of general systems analysis adequate to the demands of adaptive social-institutional systems must constitute an epochal modification of the conventional perspective of scientific inquiry. Under the assumption that the magnitude of the task will not dissuade us from the aim of establishing interdisciplinary principles, attention is concentrated here on a factorization of the specific metatheoretic projects that are thought to be entailed: (1) selection of primitive concepts and commitments of a system-theoretic mode of rational inquiry, and (2) institution of an attending set of rational canons for normative systems analysis.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 325-337 
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    Notes: Abstract Decision models which aspire to generality are weak since they must be divorced from any societal environment, or assume universality for one form of society. The former is the case with normative rational models, the latter with descriptive ones such as incrementalism. To assume that decision modes vary in response to environmental factors might be a more fruitful basis for analysis. This is the point of departure for the present paper, which offers a conceptual framework independent ofa priori assumptions about the decisionmaker's environment. Among hypotheses which are presented on the relationships between environmental and decision variables, is the suggestion that an important factor affecting the style of decisionmakers is their perception of change. An environment perceived as relatively stable or gradually changing will elicit incremental decision processes, while decisionmakers finding themselves subjected to rapid change in a turbulent environment may adopt a decision mode called entrepreneurial. This is distinguished from the incremental mode by, among other characteristics, its greater propensity for risk.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 361-369 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper assesses the role program evaluation can play in assisting decisions on public programs. The author looks at evaluation from the standpoint of decisionmakers interested in finding out the “right” answers about their programs. The discussion focuses on the assistance that various types of evaluation can give to program managers and to policymakers concerned with legislative changes and budget levels. The paper includes recent examples of relevant evaluation work. The concluding section analyzes some of the problems decisionmakers face in trying to get reliable, useful evaluation.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 349-359 
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    Notes: Abstract A comparison of 20 years of aircraft production in Europe and America. U.S. cost increases in the system acquisition process have resulted in large part from unforeseen (sometimes unforseeable) engineering difficulties in the development phase, and from substantial production commitment before development was complete. Common European strategy completed basic development before beginning production and demonstrated utility through prototypes, using early proof-testing of engines, electronics and airframes. An alternative acquisition strategy to that used in the 1960s in the United States is recommended for the next decade: (1) incremental acquisition, based on a sequence of decision points and a succession of development and production phases; and (2) pronounced austerity in early development phases. These changes would result in lessened cost growth and lower U.S. acquisition costs, as well as in improved predictability of schedule and system performance outcomes.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 371-378 
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    Notes: Abstract Decisionmaking under uncertainty is visualized as a game against nature. The policymaker is the player and has a set of alternatives or strategies from which he desires to choose the most effective. He is confronted with a variety of possible states of nature that may evolve after his decision is made. The key states of nature are identified and their interactive relationship to the strategy options are specified. Important roles in the resulting analysis are played by the probabilities of successful project initiation and implementation. It is shown that neglect of the inherent uncertainty aspects leads to evaluations (benefit-cost ratios) of proposed reforms and projects which can be seriously upward biased.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 339-347 
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    Notes: Abstract There is a growing interest within universities in the operation of state and local governments, and in the services they provide. An example of this interest is the Program for Urban and Policy Sciences (UPS) at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. Since its inception two years ago, it has been the operating policy of the Program to direct its principal research activities to real and immediate problems facing state and local governments in the New York area. In each of the collaborative efforts undertaken with an outside agency, we have seen our role as that of both problem analysts and catalytic agents for bringing about change. This means our faculty and students actively participate in the policy formulation and policy implementation processes. A case study of a cooperative effort undertaken with the Environmental Protection Administration of New York City illustrates these ideas. We believe that a successful university program should combine research with real world experience; the university should encourage the faculty to broaden the scope of their activities; and students, particularly those from minorities, should be trained for professional careers as planning and program analysts.
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    Policy sciences 3 (1972), S. 381-383 
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