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  • Articles  (9)
  • Prices  (9)
  • 2010-2014  (9)
  • Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition  (9)
  • 1
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    Futures Prices in Supply Analysis: Are Instrumental Variables Necessary? (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-12-13
    Description: Crop yield shocks are partially predictable—high planting-time futures prices have tended to indicate that yield would be below trend. As a result, regressions of total caloric production on futures prices produce estimates of the supply elasticity that are biased downwards by up to 75%. Regressions of the world’s growing area on futures prices have a much smaller bias of about 20% because although yield shocks are partially predictable, this predictability has a relatively small effect on land allocation. We argue that the preferred method for estimating the crop supply elasticity is to use regressions of growing area on futures prices and to include the realized yield shock as a control variable. An alternative method for bias reduction is to use instrumental variables (IVs). We show that the marginal contribution of an IV to bias reduction is small—IVs are not necessary for futures prices in supply analysis.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Standard Commodity Storage Model: Evidence from Sugar Prices (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-12-13
    Description: We present a Maximum Likelihood estimator for the standard commodity storage model with stockouts, based on prices only. While it imposes no additional assumptions on the model, the Maximum Likelihood estimator has small sample properties superior to those of the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood approach. We provide a proof that is crucial for applying our estimator to the model with normal harvests and possibly unbounded prices, thereby eliminating an inconsistency in the empirical storage model literature. Applying our Maximum Likelihood estimator to a series of annual sugar prices from 1921 to 2009 provides new evidence for the empirical relevance of the standard storage model. Our results imply a cutoff price at which discretionary stocks go to zero, which is higher than the price obtained by applying the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator to the same data. The implied frequency of stockouts is lower, and price correlations, skewness, and kurtosis implied by the model closely match those seen in the annual sugar price data. We find the price of sugar to be highly responsive to small changes in consumption. When inventories are not available to buffer the effects of negative supply shocks on consumption, prices must increase sharply to induce the consumption changes needed to clear the market. Our results show why production shocks are not necessarily aligned with price spikes; the same production shock can give rise to very different price responses, depending on whether or not there are sufficient stocks to buffer its impact.
    Keywords: C51 - Model Construction and Estimation, C52 - Model Evaluation and Selection, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 3
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    Wine Prices and Quality Ratings: A Meta-regression Analysis (2014)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-13
    Description: This article examines the empirical support for the hypothesized hedonic theoretical relation between the price of wine and its quality. The examination considers over 180 hedonic wine price models developed over 20 years, covering many countries. The research identifies that the relation between the price of wine and its sensory quality rating is a moderate partial correlation of +0.30. This correlation exists despite the lack of information held by consumers about a wine's quality and the inconsistency of expert tasters when evaluating wines. The results identify a moderate price-quality correlation, which suggests the existence of strategic buying opportunities for better informed consumers. Strategic price setting possibilities may also exist for wine producers given the incomplete quality information held by consumers. The results from the meta-regression analysis point to the absence of any publication bias, and attribute the observed asymmetry in estimates to study heterogeneity. The analysis suggests the observed heterogeneity is explained by the importance of a wine's reputation, the use of the 100-point quality rating scale, the analysis of a single wine variety/style, and the employed functional form. The most important implication from the analysis is the relative importance of a wine's reputation over its sensory quality, inferring that producers need to sustain the sensory quality of a wine over time to extract appropriate returns. The reputation of the wine producer is found not to influence the strength of the price-quality relationship. This finding does not contradict the importance of wine producer reputation in directly influencing prices.
    Keywords: C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    Crop Supply Dynamics and the Illusion of Partial Adjustment (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-02
    Description: We use field-level data to estimate the response of corn and soybean acreage to price shocks. Our sample contains more than 8 million observations derived from satellite imagery and includes every cultivated field in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. We estimate that aggregate crop acreage responds more to price shocks in the short run than in the long run, and we show theoretically how the benefits of crop rotation generate this response pattern. In essence, farmers who change crops due to a price shock have an incentive to switch back to the previous crop to capture the benefits of crop rotation. Our result contradicts the long-held belief that agricultural supply responds gradually to price shocks through partial adjustment. We would not have obtained this result had we used county-level panel data. Standard econometric methods applied to county-level data produce estimates consistent with partial adjustment. We show that this apparent partial adjustment is illusory, and we demonstrate how it arises from the fact that fields in the same county are more similar to each other than to fields in other counties. This result underscores the importance of using models with appropriate micro-foundations and cautions against inferring micro-level rigidities from inertia in aggregate panel data. Our preferred estimate of the own-price long-run elasticity of corn acreage is 0.29, and the cross-price elasticity is –0.22. The corresponding elasticities for soybean acreage are 0.26 and –0.33. Our estimated short-run elasticities are 37% larger than their long-run counterparts.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-03-07
    Description: This paper examines the dynamics of volatility across major global exchanges for corn, wheat and soybeans in the USA, Europe and Asia. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach and account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross-volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. In particular, Chicago plays a major role in terms of spillover effects over other markets. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some commodities.
    Keywords: C32 - Time-Series Models, G15 - International Financial Markets, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations? (2013)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-05-31
    Description: This article studies US corn price fluctuations in the past two decades. Price volatility is explained by volatility clustering, the influence of energy prices, corn stocks and global economic conditions. A multivariate generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic specification that allows for exogenous variables in the conditional covariance model is estimated both parametrically and semiparametrically. Findings provide evidence of price volatility transmission between ethanol and corn markets. They also suggest that macroeconomic conditions can influence corn price volatility and that stock building is found to significantly reduce corn price fluctuations.
    Keywords: C32 - Time-Series Models, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 7
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    Greek meat supply response and price volatility in a rational expectations framework: a multivariate GARCH approach (2012)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-03-08
    Description: This paper examines supply response models in a rational expectations framework for each one of the four major Greek meat markets, i.e. beef, broiler, lamb and pork. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model with Cholesky decomposition is used to incorporate price volatility into the rational expectations supply response model for each meat category and as a result the conditional covariance matrix remains positive definite without imposing any restrictions on the parameters. The empirical results confirm the existence of rational behaviour by meat producers in the four examined markets and indicate that price volatility is a major risk factor in Greek meat production. Furthermore, the last Common Agricultural Policy reform is found to have a negative impact on beef and lamb production in Greece.
    Keywords: C51 - Model Construction and Estimation, D20 - General, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 8
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    Remodelling the Working-Kaldor curve: the roles of scarcity, time to maturity and time to harvest (2012)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-05-29
    Description: To explain convenience yield accruing to commodity inventory holders, time to maturity (TTM) and TIME to harvest should interact with current scarcity. Using weekly data for corn, wheat and soyabeans (1986–2009), the interaction (multiplicative) model performs better than traditional versions that, at best, incorporate TTM additively and ignore harvests. Among the competing proxies for scarcity, the combination of spot price and inventory beats either spot price or inventory separately, but the pure spot-price version is a close second. Our model still exhibits a clear ‘Working curve’ pattern, with slopes changing with TTM and pre- versus post-harvest periods.
    Keywords: G10 - General, G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond Interest Rates, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies, N32 - U.S. ; Canada: 1913-, N52 - U.S. ; Canada: 1913-, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    Price volatility in ethanol markets (2011)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2011-11-24
    Description: This research evaluates price volatility transmission in the Brazilian ethanol industry over time and across markets by using a new methodological approach proposed by Seo. The main advantage of Seo's method is that it allows for joint estimation of the co-integration relationship between the price series investigated and the multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. It thus allows the responses of both food price levels and volatility to unanticipated shocks to be considered together. Results suggest a strong link between food and energy markets, both in terms of price levels and volatility.
    Keywords: C32 - Time-Series Models, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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