ALBERT

Description: Although catchment storage is an intrinsic control on the rainfall-runoff response of streams, direct measurement remains a major challenge. Coupled models that integrate long-term hydrometric and isotope tracer data are useful tools that can provide insights into the dynamics of catchment storage and the volumes of water involved. In this study, we use a tracer-aided hydrological model to characterize catchment storage as a dynamic control on system function related to streamflow generation, which also allows direct estimation of the non-stationarity of water ages. We show that in a wet Scottish upland catchment dominated by runoff generation from riparian peats (histosols) with high water storage, non-stationarity in water age distributions are only clearly detectable during more extreme wet and dry periods. This is explained by the frequency and longevity of hydrological connectivity and the associated relative importance of flow paths contributing younger or older waters to the stream. Generally, these saturated riparian soils represent large mixing zones that buffer the time variance of water age and integrate catchment-scale partial mixing processes. Although storage simulations depend on model performance, which is influenced by input variability and the degree of isotopic damping in the stream, a longer-term storage analysis of this model indicates a system which is only sensitive to more extreme hydroclimatic variability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT A reactive transport modeling framework is presented that allows simultaneous assessment of groundwater flow, water quality evolution including δ 13 C, and 14 C activity or “age”. Through application of this framework, simulated 14 C activities can be directly compared with measured 14 C activities. This bypasses the need for interpretation of a 14 C age prior to flow simulation through factoring out processes other than radioactive decay, which typically involves simplifying assumptions regarding spatial and temporal variability in reactions, flow, and mixing. The utility of the approach is demonstrated for an aquifer system with spatially variable carbonate mineral distribution, multiple organic carbon sources, and transient boundary conditions for 14 C activity in the recharge water. In this case the simulated 14 C age was shown to be relatively insensitive to isotopic fractionation during DOC oxidation and variations in assumed DOC degradation behaviour. We demonstrate that the model allows quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding controls on groundwater age and water quality evolution for all three carbon isotopes. The approach also facilitates incorporation of multiple environmental tracers and combination with parameter optimization techniques. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Water scarcity is likely to increase in the coming years, making improvements in irrigation efficiency increasingly important. An emerging technology that promises to increase irrigation efficiency substantially is a wireless irrigation sensor network that uploads sensor data into irrigation management software, creating an integrated system that allows real-time monitoring and control of moisture status that has been shown in experimental settings to reduce irrigation costs, lower plant loss rates, shorten production times, decrease pesticide application, and increase yield, quality, and profit. We use an original survey to investigate likely initial acceptance, ceiling adoption rates, and profitability of this new sensor network technology in the nursery and greenhouse industry. We find that adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are decreasing in price, as expected. The price elasticity of the probability of adoption suggests that sensor networks are likely to diffuse at a rate somewhat greater than that of drip irrigation. Adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are increasing in specialization in ornamental production: Growers earning greater shares of revenue from greenhouse and nursery operations are willing to pay more for a base system and are willing to purchase larger numbers of expansion components at any given price. We estimate that growers who are willing to purchase a sensor network expect investment in this technology to generate significant profit, consistent with findings from experimental studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Since 2007 a large decline in Arctic sea ice has been observed. The large-scale atmospheric circulation response to this decline is investigated in ERA-Interim reanalyses and HadGEM3 climate model experiments. In winter, post-2007 observed circulation anomalies over the Arctic, North Atlantic and Eurasia are small compared to interannual variability. In summer, the post-2007 observed circulation is dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly over Greenland which has a large signal-to-noise ratio. Climate model experiments driven by observed SST and sea ice anomalies are able to capture the summertime pattern of observed circulation anomalies, although the magnitude is a third of that observed. The experiments suggest warm SSTs and reduced sea ice in the Labrador Sea lead to warm temperature anomalies in lower troposphere which weaken the westerlies over North America through thermal wind balance. The experiments also capture cyclonic anomalies over north-western Europe, which are consistent with downstream Rossby wave propagation.

Description: Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSU) on the NOAA polar orbiting satellites measured infrared radiances in the 15 micron CO 2 band between late 1978 and mid-2006. From these radiances a time series of layer mean stratospheric temperatures has been derived by several groups. Discrepancies in these temperature analyses have been highlighted recently and efforts are now underway to resolve the differences between them. This paper is the Met Office response summarising the issues to be resolved in creating a climate data record from the different SSUs, including corrections for radiometric, spectroscopic and tidal differences. Calibration issues identified include the SSU space view anomaly and radiometric anomalies in the NOAA-9 observations. The spectroscopic correction required for changing pressures in the pressure modulator cells is also outlined. The most important correction for the time series is for the solar diurnal and semi-diurnal tides as the satellite overpass local times change. Comparisons with other stratospheric temperature trend analyses are made and the reasons for the differences discussed. The time series presented here show sustained drops in stratospheric temperatures at all levels after the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions but only small trends to lower temperatures between eruptions.

Description: A high-order global shallow water model on Yin-Yang grid has been developed by using the multi-moment constrained finite volume (MCV) method. Different from the traditional finite volume method, more degrees of freedom (DOFs) which are the values at the solution points within each mesh element are defined and updated in time. The time evolution equations for these point values are derived from a set constraint conditions in terms of the so-called multi-moment quantities, such as the point value (PV), the volume-integrated average (VIA) and derivative (DV). Different moments use different forms of equations which are all consistent with the shallow water equations, among which the VIA moment is computed from a finite volume formulation of flux form that guarantees the rigorous numerical conservation. A fourth-order formulation is devised with the third-order reconstruction built over each element using the DOFs locally available. A simple and orthogonal overset grid, the Yin-Yang grid, is used to represent the spherical geometry with quasi-uniform grid spacing. The resulting global shallow water model is attractive in algorithmic simplicity and computational efficiency. The model has been validated by widely used benchmark tests. The numerical results of the present model are competitive to most existing advanced models.

Description: In this study we first present updated riverine total alkalinity (TA) loads to the various Baltic Sea sub-basins, based on monthly measurements in 82 of the major rivers that represent 85% of the total runoff. Simulations in the coupled physical-biogeochemical BALTSEM model show that these river loads together with North Sea water inflows are not sufficient to reproduce observed TA concentrations in the system, demonstrating the large influence from internal sources. Budget calculations indicate that the required internal TA generation must be similar to river loads in magnitude. The non-riverine source in the system amounts to about 2.4 mmol m -2 d -1 on average. We argue here that the majority of this source is related to denitrification together with unresolved sediment processes such as burial of reduced sulfur and/or silicate weathering. This hypothesis is supported by studies on sediment processes on a global scale, and also by data from sediment cores in the Baltic Sea. In a model simulation with all internal TA sources and sinks switched on, the net absorption of atmospheric CO 2 increased by 0.78 mol C m -2 y -1 compared to a simulation where TA was treated as a passive tracer. Our results clearly illustrate how pelagic TA sources together with anaerobic mineralization in coastal sediments generate a significant carbon sink along the aquatic continuum, mitigating CO 2 evasions from coastal and estuarine systems.

Description: ABSTRACT In a review of the role of plants in river systems, Gurnell (2014) explains how living riparian vegetation can exert physical controls that enable it to modify and manipulate many fluvial processes. Those traits, in combination with their tendency to speed up the recovery of river systems between extreme flow events through their stabilising influence, imply that plants may act as ‘river system engineers’. In this sense, vegetation may be important in attenuating erosion during high flow and stabilising river features both during and after extreme flow conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT This paper is a response to commentary on the review by Gurnell (2014). It covers three themes. First, it explains how the review focused on physical ecosystem engineering by plants, particularly in the northern humid temperate zone. Second, it explains how the review was structured to address that theme and why annual species were not highlighted. Within the humid temperate zone, mature plants of annual species are not present during the seasons of the year when fluvial processes are most active: they survive as seeds or young seedlings, and so their ability to act as river ecosystem engineers is limited. Third, some comments are made regarding the annual species, Himalayan balsam ( Impatiens glandulifera ), including the traits that enable it to be successful in riparian environments, its competitive ability, its potential role in influencing fluvial sediment dynamics, and the need for controlled experiments to characterise and quantify the latter over one or more complete years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The comprehensive general circulation model ECHAM6 is used in a radiative-convective equilibrium configuration. It is coupled to a perfectly conducting slab. To understand the local impact of thermodynamic surface properties on the land-ocean warming contrast, the surface latent heat flux and surface heat capacity are reduced stepwise, aiming for a land-like climate. Both ocean- and land-like RCE simulation reproduce the tropical atmosphere over ocean and land in a satisfactory manner and lead to reasonable land-ocean warming ratios. A small surface heat capacity induces a high diurnal surface temperature range which triggers precipitation during the day and decouples the free troposphere from the diurnal mean temperature. With increasing evaporation resistance, the net atmospheric cooling rate decreases because cloud base height rises, causing a reduction of precipitation. Climate sensitivity depends more on changes in evaporation resistance than on changes in surface heat capacity. A feedback analysis with the partial radiation perturbation method shows that amplified warming over idealized land can be associated with disproportional changes in the lapse rate versus the water vapor feedback. Cloud feedbacks, convective aggregation and changes in global mean surface temperature confuse the picture.

Description: This technical note presents a useful methodology for studying how the variance of hydraulic and/or reactive attributes of an aquifer are linked to the multi-scaled and hierarchical sedimentary architecture of the aquifer. A new recursive equation is derived which quantitatively describes how the variance is related to sedimentary facies defined at all scales across an entire stratal hierarchy. As compared to prior published equations that emphasize differences in means among facies populations within a hierarchical level, it emphasizes differences across levels. Because of the hierarchical relationships among the terms of the equation, we find it to be useful for conducting a holistic analysis of the relative contributions to the variance arising from all facies types defined across all scales. The methodology is demonstrated using appropriate field data, and is shown to be useful in defining parsimonious classification systems.

Description: ABSTRACT A primary concern for geologic carbon storage is the potential for leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the shallow subsurface where it could degrade the quality of groundwater and surface water. In order to predict and mitigate the potentially negative impacts of CO 2 leakage, it is important to understand the physical processes that CO 2 will undergo as it moves through naturally heterogeneous porous media formations. Previous studies have shown that heterogeneity can enhance the evolution of gas phase CO 2 in some cases, but the conditions under which this occurs have not yet been quantitatively defined, nor tested through laboratory experiments. This study quantitatively investigates the effects of geologic heterogeneity on the process of gas phase CO 2 evolution in shallow aquifers through an extensive set of experiments conducted in a column that was packed with layers of various test sands. Soil moisture sensors were utilized to observe the formation of gas phase near the porous media interfaces. Results indicate that the conditions under which heterogeneity controls gas phase evolution can be successfully predicted through analysis of simple parameters, including the dissolved CO 2 concentration in the flowing water, the distance between the heterogeneity and the leakage location, and some fundamental properties of the porous media. Results also show that interfaces where a less permeable material overlies a more permeable material affect gas phase evolution more significantly than interfaces with the opposite layering.

Description: Linear instability of warm core eddies of constant potential vorticity (PV) is studied in a two layer, finite depth, shallow water ocean. The basic state flow in the constant PV eddy that obeys the gradient balance cannot be described by explicit expressions and can only be solved numerically. The various cases of gradient balance are classified by constructing a canonical formulation that relates any PV value to a value of the angular velocity that has to prevail near the center of the constant PV eddy. The growth-rates of perturbations imposed on the basic state are calculated for a variety of values of the (constant) PV and the depth of the surrounding ocean. The growth-rates i.e. the eigenvalues are calculated numerically by employing a shooting to fitting point method that guarantees that the corresponding eigenfunctions are regular at all singular points. The maximal growth-rates are contoured as functions of PV and ocean depth for azimuthal wavenumber 2 and 3 and the maximum of these growth-rates is of the order of 1 day which is similar to that of a solidly rotating eddy. However, the range angular velocity and ocean depth where the constant PV eddy is unstable is greatly reduced compared to that of a solidly rotating eddy. The instabilities found here are classified in terms of wave-wave interactions by comparing our results in each PV value with the known instabilities of the solidly rotating eddy with the same angular velocity. In the constant PV eddy the Baroclinic instability is filtered out and the range of angular velocity where the Hybrid instability exists is significantly reduced. All instabilities decay monotonically with the increase in ocean depth.

Description: Fluvial sediment loads are frequently calculated with rating curves fit to measured sediment transport rates. Rating curves are often treated as statistical representations in which the fitted parameters have little or no physical meaning. Such models, however, may produce large errors when extrapolation is needed, and they provide no insight into the sediment transport process. It is shown that log-linear least squares, the usual method for fitting rating curves, does not generally produce physically meaningful parameter values. In addition, it cannot accommodate data that include zero-transport samples. Alternative fitting methods based non-linear least squares and on maximum likelihood parameter estimation are described and evaluated. The maximum likelihood approach is shown to fit synthetic data better than linear or non-linear least squares, and to perform well with data that include zero-transport samples. In contrast, non-linear least squares methods produce large errors in the parameter estimates when zero-transport samples are present or when the variance structure of the data is incorrectly specified. Analyses with fractional bedload data from a mountain stream suggest that bedload transport rates are gamma distributed, that the arrivals of bedload particles in a sampler conform to a Poisson distribution, and that the variance of non-zero samples can be expressed as a power function of the mean. Preliminary physical interpretations of variations in the rating curve parameters fit to fractional bedload data with the maximum likelihood method are proposed, and their relation to some previous interpretations of rating curve parameters are briefly discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Santín et al. (2014) report the conversion of different boreal forest biomass pools to pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) during a forest fire, and suggest that ~100 Tg C y −1 may be converted to PyOM in boreal forests globally. They further suggest that PyOM formation represents a missing C sink. The phrase ‘missing C sink’ derives from a lack of closure in the atmospheric C budget. Approximately ⅓ of the CO 2 emitted to the atmosphere via burning of fossil fuels and land use change cannot be accounted for after oceanic uptake and atmospheric accumulations are tallied (Schlesinger and Bernhardt 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A significant part of the soil organic carbon that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon (SOC) is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model (ICBM-DE) including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reached an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes ca. 300 yr for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under mechanized agriculture to be released to the atmosphere after the application of soil conservation measures such as conservation tillage.

Description: Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: Conservative Detrending applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring-widths with age; Basal Area Correction transforms diameter into basal-area growth; Regional Curve Standardization detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and Size Class Isolation calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring dataset of Melia azedarach , a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results – a growth decline over time – but the widely used Conservative Detrending method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth trend detection), reliability (1- probability of detecting false trends), and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade), and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except Conservative Detrending, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. Basal Area Correction showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend-detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend Size Class Isolation and Regional Curve Standardization, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long-term growth trends. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Surface-to-atmosphere emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) may impact global climate through the formation of gaseous sulfuric acid, which can yield secondary sulfate aerosols and contribute to new particle formation. While oceans are generally considered the dominant source of DMS, a shortage of ecosystem observations prevents an accurate analysis of terrestrial DMS sources. Using mass spectrometry, we quantified ambient DMS mixing ratios within and above a primary rainforest ecosystem in the central Amazon Basin in real-time (2010–2011) and at high vertical resolution (2013–2014). Elevated but highly variable DMS mixing ratios were observed within the canopy, showing clear evidence of a net ecosystem source to the atmosphere during both day and night in both the dry and wet seasons. Periods of high DMS mixing ratios lasting up to 8 hours (up to 160 ppt) often occurred within the canopy and near the surface during many evenings and nights. Daytime gradients showed mixing ratios (up to 80 ppt) peaking near the top of the canopy as well as near the ground following a rain event. The spatial and temporal distribution of DMS suggests that ambient levels and their potential climatic impacts are dominated by local soil and plant emissions. A soil source was confirmed by measurements of DMS emission fluxes from Amazon soils as a function of temperature and soil moisture. Furthermore, light and temperature dependent DMS emissions were measured from seven tropical tree species. Our study has important implications for understanding terrestrial DMS sources and their role in coupled land-atmosphere climate feedbacks.

Description: (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12697/full) The above article, published online on 18 August 2014 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors, Dr Melanie Harsch and Associate Professor Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, journal Editor‐in‐Chief, Professor Stephen Long, and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed for the following reasons: a coding error affected the results and therefore invalidated the broad‐scale conclusions presented in the article. The article presented broad‐scale patterns of species distribution shifts in response to recent climate change. Unfortunately, it has since been found that one approach used to account for sampling bias, the null model approach, was affected by the coding error. Following the identification of the coding error, we are therefore retracting the article. We thank Drs Adam Wolf and William Anderegg for bringing this issue to our attention. Reference Harsch MA, Hille Ris Lambers J (2014) Species distributions shift downward across western North America. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12697.

Description: ABSTRACT Reef islands on the Great Barrier Reef are influenced by a range of environmental factors. for a meta-analysis of 103 islands expresses variation in island size (area and volume) as a function of latitudinal and cross shelf gradients in regional oceanographic factors (exposure to incident waves, tidal range and tropical cyclone frequency) and local physical factors (position on the shelf, area, length and depth of supporting reef platform, vegetative cover). Models performed well for unvegetated sandcays (R 2  = 0.89), vegetated sandcays (R 2  = 0.72) and low wooded islands (R 2  = 0.78), with a moderate level of variation explained when all islands were simultaneously regressed (R 2  = 0.58). Future island dynamics were simulated for anticipated changes in cyclone regime, wave activity and sea level. For 38 islands mapped on the 1973 Royal Society and Universities of Queensland Expedition to the Northern Great Barrier Reef , change over the same 22 year period (1973 to 1995) was determined andthe relative magnitude of observed and modelled changes was compared and found to be consistent through rank correlation analysis (Γ = 0.84 for unvegetated sandcays, Γ = 0.81 for vegetated sandcays). Simulations of island area or volume change from 2000 to 2100 indicated that under a 30% decrease in tropical cyclone activity, unvegetated sandcays continue to accrete at a lower rate, whereas all island types erode under a 38% increase in tropical cyclone activity. Vegetated sandcays initially accrete at higher levels of cyclone activity, entering an erosive state with a 60% increase in activity. Low wooded islands are unresponsive to environmental change. A sensitivity analysis of vegetated and unvegetated sandcays indicated that the presence of vegetation increases the tropical cyclone activity threshold at which islands begin to erode. Greatest sedimentary losses occur within the central band of high cyclone activity between Cooktown and Mackay. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT We present a new numerical surface process model allowing us to take into account submarine erosion processes due either to submarine landslides or to hyperpycnal currents. A first set of models show that the frequency of hyperpycnal flows influences the development of submarine canyons at the mouth of continental rivers. Further experiments show that an increase in submarine slope leads to faster regressive canyon erosion and a more dentritic canyon network, whereas increasing the height of the unstable sediment pile located on the shelf break leads to wider and less dendritic canyons. The models are then applied to the western segment of the north Ligurian margin (northwestern Mediterranean), which displays numerous submarine canyons with various sizes and morphologies. From west to east, canyon longitudinal profiles as well as margin-perpendicular profiles progressively change from moderately steep, concave-up shapes to steeper linear to convex-up shapes suggesting increasing eastward margin uplift. Moreover, the foot of the margin is affected by a marked slope increase with evidences of mass transport due to landslides. Numerical models which reproduce well the North Ligurian margin morphologic features indicate that the western part of the margin is submitted to rather low (i.e. 0.4 mm yr −1 ) uplift and intense submarine erosion due to frequent hyperpycnal currents, whereas the eastern part bears more rapid (i.e. 0.7 mm yr −1 ) uplift and has little or no hyperpycnal currents. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: The bi-directional air-surface exchange for gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) and existing measurements of the compensation points over a variety of canopy types are reviewed. Deposition and emission of GEM are dependent on several factors such as the type of canopy, temperature, season, atmospheric GEM concentrations, and meteorological conditions, with compensation points varying between 0.5 and 33 ng m -3 . Emissions tend to increase from the spring to summer seasons, as the GEM accumulates in the foliage of the vegetation. A strong dependence on solar radiation has been observed, with higher emissions under light conditions. A bi-directional air-surface exchange flux model is proposed for estimating GEM fluxes at a two-hourly time resolution at the National Atmospheric Deposition Program the Atmospheric Mercury Network (AMNet) sites. Compared to the uni-directional dry deposition model used in Zhang et al. (2012), two additional parameters, stomatal and soil emission potential, were needed in the bi-directional model and were chosen based on knowledge gained in the literature review and model sensitivity test results. Application of this bi-directional model to AMNet sites have produced annual net deposition fluxes comparable to those estimated in Zhang et al. (2012) at the majority of the sites. In this study, the net GEM dry deposition has been estimated separately for each dominant land use type surrounding each site, and this approach is also recommended for future calculations for easy application of the results to assessments of the mercury effects on various ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage plays a major role in the global carbon cycle and is affected by many factors including land use/management changes (e.g., biofuel production-oriented changes). However, the contributions of various factors to SOC changes are not well understood and quantified. This study was designed to investigate the impacts of changing farming practices, initial SOC levels, and biological enhancement of grain production on SOC dynamics and to attribute the relative contributions of major driving forces (CO 2 enrichment and farming practices) using a fractional factorial modeling design. The case study at a crop site in Iowa in the United States demonstrated that the traditional corn-soybean (CS) rotation could still accumulate SOC over this century (from 4.2 to 6.8 kg C/m 2 ) under the current condition; whereas the continuous-corn (CC) system might have a higher SOC sequestration potential than CS. In either case, however, residue removal could reduce the sink potential substantially. Long-term simulation results also suggested that the equilibrium SOC level may vary greatly (~5.7 to ~11 kg C/m 2 ) depending on cropping systems and management practices, and projected growth enhancement could make the magnitudes higher (~7.8 to ~13 kg C/m 2 ). Importantly, the factorial design analysis indicated that residue management had the most significant impact (contributing 49.4%) on SOC changes, followed by CO 2 Enrichment (37%), Tillage (6.2%), the combination of CO 2 Enrichment-Residue removal (5.8%), and Fertilization (1.6%). In brief, this study is valuable for understanding the major forces driving SOC dynamics of agro-ecosystems and informative for decision-makers when seeking the enhancement of SOC sequestration potential and sustainability of biofuel production, especially in the Corn Belt region of the United States. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Marine organisms are simultaneously exposed to anthropogenic stressors with likely interactive effects, including synergisms in which the combined effects of multiple stressors are greater than the sum of individual effects. Early life stages of marine organisms are potentially vulnerable to the stressors associated with global change, but identifying general patterns across studies, species and response variables is challenging. This review represents the first meta-analysis of multi-stressor studies to target early marine life stages (embryo to larvae), particularly between temperature, salinity and pH as these are the best studied. Knowledge gaps in research on multiple abiotic stressors and early life stages are also identified. The meta-analysis yielded several key results: 1) Synergistic interactions (65% of individual tests) are more common than additive (17%) or antagonistic (17%) interactions. 2) Larvae are generally more vulnerable than embryos to thermal and pH stress. 3) Survival is more likely than sub-lethal responses to be affected by thermal, salinity, and pH stress. 4) Interaction types vary among stressors, ontogenetic stages, and biological responses, but they are more consistent among phyla. 5) Ocean acidification is a greater stressor for calcifying than non-calcifying larvae. Although more ecologically realistic than single-factor studies, multifactorial studies may still oversimplify complex systems, and so meta-analyses of the data from them must be cautiously interpreted with regard to extrapolation to field conditions. Nonetheless our results identify taxa with early life stages that may be particularly vulnerable (e.g. molluscs, echinoderms) or robust (e.g. arthropods, cnidarians) to abiotic stress. We provide a list of recommendations for future multiple stressor studies, particularly those focussed on early marine life stages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models.

Description: While it is widely recognized that peatlands are important in the global carbon cycle, there is limited information on belowground gas production in tropical peatlands. We measured porewater methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and δ 13 C isotopic composition and CH 4 and CO 2 production rates in peat incubations from the Changuinola wetland in Panama. Our most striking finding was that CH 4 was depleted in 13 C (-94‰ in porewater and produced at -107‰ in incubated peat) relative to CH 4 found in most temperate and northern wetlands, potentially impacting the accuracy of approaches that use carbon isotopes to constrain global mass balance estimates. Fractionation factors between CH 4 and CO 2 showed that hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was the dominant CH 4 production pathway, with up to 100% of the CH 4 produced via this route. Far more CO 2 than CH 4 (7 to 100 X) was measured in porewater, due in part to loss of CH 4 through ebullition or oxidation and to the production of CO 2 from pathways other than methanogenesis. We analyzed data on 58 wetlands from the literature to determine the dominant factors influencing the relative proportions of CH 4 produced by hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis and found that a combination of environmental parameters including pH, vegetation type, nutrient status and latitude are correlated to the dominant methanogenic pathway. Methane production pathways in tropical peatlands do not correlate with these variables in the same way as their more northerly counterparts and thus may be differently affected by climate change.

Description: This paper documents version 1 of the Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL1), which has a flexible horizontal resolution up to a quarter of one degree. The model, currently running on the “Tianhe 1A” supercomputer, is the atmospheric component of the third-generation Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land climate System model (FGOALS3) which will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition to describing the dynamical core and physical parameterizations of FAMIL1, this paper describes the simulated characteristics of energy and water balances and compares them with observational/reanalysis data. The comparisons indicate that the model simulates well the seasonal and geographical distributions of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, as well as the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. A major weakness in the energy balance is identified in the regions where extensive and persistent marine stratocumulus is present. Analysis of the global water balance also indicates realistic seasonal and geographical distributions with the global annual mean of evaporation minus precipitation being approximately 10 −5 mm day −1 . We also examine the connections between the global energy and water balance and discuss the possible link between the two within the context of the findings from the reanalysis data. Finally, the model biases as well as possible solutions are discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Biogeochemical rate processes in the Arctic are not currently well constrained and there is very limited information on how rates may change as the region warms. Here we present data on the sensitivity of ammonium (NH 4 + ) uptake and nitrification rates to short-term warming. Samples were collected from the Chukchi Sea off the coast of Barrow, Alaska during winter, spring, and summer and incubated for 24 hours in the dark with additions of 15 NH 4 + at -1.5, 6, 13, and 20 °C. Rates of NH 4 + uptake and nitrification were measured in conjunction with bacterial production. In all seasons, NH 4 + uptake rates were highest at temperatures similar to current summertime conditions, but dropped off with increased warming, indicative of psychrophilic (i.e. cold-loving) microbial communities. In contrast, nitrification rates were less sensitive to temperature and were higher in winter and spring compared to summer. These findings suggest that as the Arctic coastal ecosystem continues to warm, NH 4 + assimilation may become increasingly important, relative to nitrification, although the magnitude of NH 4 + assimilation would be still be lower than nitrification.

Description: Urban green spaces provide ecosystem services to city residents, but their management is hindered by a poor understanding of their ecology. We examined a novel ecosystem service relevant to urban public health and esthetics: the consumption of littered food waste by arthropods. Theory and data from natural systems suggest that the magnitude and resilience of this service should increase with biological diversity. We measured food removal by presenting known quantities of cookies, potato chips, and hot dogs in street medians (24 sites) and parks (21 sites) in New York City, USA. At the same sites, we assessed ground-arthropod diversity and abiotic conditions, including history of flooding during Hurricane Sandy 7 months prior to the study. Arthropod diversity was greater in parks (on average 11 hexapod families and 4.7 ant species per site), than in medians (nine hexapod families and 2.7 ant species per site). However, counter to our diversity-based prediction, arthropods in medians removed 2–3 times more food per day than did those in parks. We detected no effect of flooding (at 19 sites) on this service. Instead, greater food removal was associated with the presence of the introduced pavement ant ( Tetramorium sp. E) and with hotter, drier conditions that may have increased arthropod metabolism. When vertebrates also had access to food, more was removed, indicating that arthropods and vertebrates compete for littered food. We estimate that arthropods alone could remove 4–6.5 kg of food per year in a single street median, reducing its availability to less desirable fauna such as rats. Our results suggest that species identity and habitat may be more relevant than diversity for predicting urban ecosystem services. Even small green spaces such as street medians provide ecosystem services that may complement those of larger habitat patches across the urban landscape.

Description: Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ , and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2–3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.

Description: Recent studies indicate that lianas are increasing in size and abundance relative to trees in neotropical forests. As a result, forest dynamics and carbon balance may be altered through liana-induced suppression of tree growth and increases in tree mortality. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 is hypothesized to be responsible for the increase in neotropical lianas, yet no study has directly compared the relative response of tropical lianas and trees to elevated CO 2 . We explicitly tested whether tropical lianas had a larger response to elevated CO 2 than co-occurring tropical trees, and whether seasonal drought alters the response of either growth form. In two experiments conducted in central Panama, one spanning both wet and dry seasons and one restricted to the dry season, we grew liana (n=12) and tree (n=10) species in open-top growth chambers maintained at ambient or twice-ambient CO 2 levels. Seedlings of eight individuals (four lianas, four trees) were grown in the ground in each chamber for at least three months during each season. We found that both liana and tree seedlings had a significant and positive response to elevated CO 2 (in biomass, leaf area, leaf mass per area, and photosynthesis), but that the relative response to elevated CO 2 for all variables was not significantly greater for lianas than trees regardless of the season. The lack of differences in the relative response between growth forms does not support the hypothesis that elevated CO 2 is responsible for increasing liana size and abundance across the neotropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Finnish Lapland is known as an area where numerous sites with sediments from Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods occur. Recent sedimentological observations and dating call for reinterpretation of the record, which shows a complicated Mid-Weichselian ice-sheet evolution within the ice-divide zone. Here, a large, previously unstudied section from a former Hannukainen iron mine was investigated sedimentologically and dated with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). Ten sedimentary units were identified displaying a variety of depositional environments (glacial, glaciolacustrine, fluvial and aeolian). They are all – except for the lowermost, deeply weathered till – interpreted to be of Mid- or Late Weichselian/Holocene age. Five OSL samples from fluvial sediments give ages ranging from 55 to 35 ka, indicating two MIS 3 ice-free intervals of unknown duration. The Mid-Weichselian interstadial was interrupted by a re-advance event, which occurred later than 35 ka and caused glaciotectonic deformation, folding and stacking of older sediments. This new evidence emphasizes the importance of the Kolari area when unravelling the complex Late Pleistocene glacial history of northern Finland and adjacent regions.

Description: This paper presents the results of a comprehensive model-based analysis of a uranyl [U(VI)] tracer test conducted at the U.S. DOE Hanford 300 Area (300A) IFRC. Despite the highly complex field conditions the numerical three-dimensional multi-component reactive transport model was able to capture most of the spatiotemporal variations of the observed U(VI) concentrations. A multi-model analysis was performed to interrogate the relative importance of various processes and factors for controlling field-scale reactive transport during the uranyl tracer test. The results indicate that multi-rate sorption/desorption, surface complexation reactions, and initial concentrations were the most important processes and factors controlling U(VI) migration. On the other hand, cation exchange reactions, the choice of the surface complexation model, and dual-domain mass transfer processes played less important roles under the prevailing field-test condition. Further analysis of the modeling results demonstrates that these findings are conditioned to the relatively stable groundwater chemistry and the selected length of the field experimental duration (16 days). The model analysis also revealed the crucial role of the intraborehole flow that occurred within the long-screened monitoring wells and thus affected both field measurements and simulated U(VI) concentrations as a combined effect of aquifer heterogeneity and dynamic flow conditions. This study provides the first highly data-constrained uranium transport simulations under highly dynamic flow conditions. It illustrates the value of reactive transport modeling for elucidating the relative importance of individual processes in controlling uranium transport under specific field-scale conditions.

Description: The dynamics of drying processes from porous media are critically influenced by the intensity of an adjacent free flow and by processes at the interface between free flow and the porous medium. In this paper, the influence of hydraulic properties of a porous medium and of the interaction between fluids and porous medium on the drying dynamics during the capillary-flow dominated stage-1 and transition to the diffusion-dominated stage-2 are studied using a coupled free-flow - porous-medium flow model on the REV scale. We present a detailed model concept that considers mass balance equations, an energy balance equation and the coupling to the adjacent free flow. Key microscale processes are identified and incorporated in the macroscale description of the evaporation process. Own experimental results are used to illustrate main features of the modeling framework. We demonstrate that the use of a homogeneous distribution of soil parameters without consideration of pore-scale induced nonlinearities in the numerical simulations results in a rather constant drying rate in stage-1, which was not observed for the high evaporative demand in the experiments. To account for the dependency of the drying rate on the surface moisture content, special conditions based on the work of Haghighi et al. [2013] and Schlünder [1988] are analyzed for their applicability on the REV scale. Typical features of a drying process, such as different stages of the drying rate, could be reproduced.

Description: Making useful predictions in ungauged basins is an incredibly difficult task given the limitations of hydrologic models to represent physical processes appropriately across the heterogeneity within and among different catchments. Here, we introduce a new method for this challenge, Bayes empirical Bayes, that allows for the statistical pooling of information from multiple donor catchments and provides the ability to transfer parametric distributions rather than single parameter sets to the ungauged catchment. Further, the methodology provides an efficient framework with which to formally assess predictive uncertainty at the ungauged catchment. We investigated the utility of the methodology under both synthetic and real data conditions, and with respect to its sensitivity to the number and quality of the donor catchments used. This study highlighted the ability of the hierarchical Bayes empirical Bayes approach to produce expected outcomes in both the synthetic and real data applications. The method was found to be sensitive to the quality (hydrologic similarity) of the donor catchments used. Results were less sensitive to the number of donor catchments, but indicated that predictive uncertainty was best constrained with larger numbers of donor catchments (but still adequate with fewer donors)

Description: Autumn is a season of dynamic change in forest streams of the northeastern USA due to effects of leaf fall on both hydrology and biogeochemistry. Few studies have explored how interactions of biogeochemical transformations, various nitrogen sources, and catchment flowpaths affect stream nitrogen variation during autumn. To provide more information on this critical period, we studied 1) the timing, duration, and magnitude of changes to stream nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and ammonium concentrations; 2) changes in nitrate sources and cycling; and 3) source areas of the landscape that most influence stream nitrogen. We collected samples at higher temporal resolution for a longer duration than typical studies of stream nitrogen during autumn. This sampling scheme encompassed the patterns and extremes that occurred during baseflow and stormflow events of autumn. Baseflow nitrate concentrations decreased by an order of magnitude from 5.4 to 0.7 μmol L -1 during the week when most leaves fell from deciduous trees. Changes to rates of biogeochemical transformations during autumn baseflow explained the low nitrate concentrations; in-stream transformations retained up to 72% of the nitrate that entered a stream reach. A decrease of in-stream nitrification coupled with assimilatory nitrate uptake was a primary factor in the seasonal nitrate decline. The period of low nitrate concentrations ended with a storm event in which stream nitrate concentrations increased by 25 fold. In the ensuing weeks, stormflow nitrate concentrations progressively decreased over closely-spaced, yet similarly sized events. Most stormflow nitrate originated from nitrification in near-stream areas with occasional, large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate, which has rarely been reported for non-snowmelt events. A maximum input of 33% unprocessed atmospheric nitrate to the stream occurred during one event. The large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate show direct and rapid effects on forest streams that may be widespread, although undocumented, throughout nitrogen-polluted temperate forests. In contrast to a week-long nitrate decline during peak autumn litterfall, baseflow DON concentrations increased after leaf fall and remained high for two months. Dissolved organic nitrogen was hydrologically flushed to the stream from riparian soils during stormflow. In contrast to distinct seasonal changes in baseflow nitrate and DON concentrations, ammonium concentrations were typically at or below detection limit, similar to the rest of the year. Our findings reveal couplings among catchment flow paths, nutrient sources and transformations that control seasonal extremes of stream nitrogen in forested landscapes.

Description: During the recent years there has been an increasing interest in multivariate frequency analysis of hydrological variables, e.g. those describing extreme events like rainfall, floods or droughts. The multivariate analysis provides a better understanding of the phenomena under investigation and an additional insight about the interrelationships between the different variables (e.g. peak, volume and duration of the flood), exploiting the complete structure of the problem and making a full use of the available data. However, while the developments on multivariate analysis of hydrological data has produced a large body of literature, a clear assessment of the use of these methods in the design and risk assessment of hydraulic structures is still a matter of debate. In the present work we illustrate a general, structure-based framework for the design and/or risk assessment of hydraulic structures in a bivariate environment; we also compare it to recently proposed methods which are based on the assumption of hydrological design events (as is customary in the univariate context). For illustration purposes, both the structure-based and the design event-based approaches are applied to the design of an idealized structure, thus exploring the differences among the methods as function of the parameters involved. Our work highlights that the return period of structure failure in a multivariate environment strictly depends on the particular structure under design, and in most cases the design of an hydraulic structure cannot be based on a single, hydrological multivariate design event. This acts as a warning for practitioners against the use of design methods based on single hydrological events, as usually done in the context of univariate hydrology, thus neglecting the interplay between the structure and the hydrological loads acting on it.

Description: ABSTRACT Lavaka represent a typical erosional landform in Madagascar. The chronology of their formation remains, however, under discussion. Our research focuses on the Ankarokaroka lavaka, a spectacular landform located in NW Madagascar (Ankarafantsika natural reserve), which is characterized by the presence of sandy units of regional extension at its top. The two main units correspond to white and red sands, and are closely associated with specific vegetations (dry dense forest for the white sands, savannah grasslands for the red sands). We applied a geochronological approach based on Optically Stimulated Luminescence (for the coversands) associated to radiocarbon dating performed on archaeological remains found at the contact between the sands and the lavaka. The combination of this approach with field work and sedimentological analyses makes it possible to show that the sands experienced a complex history, both in terms of sedimentation and post-sedimentary pedogenesis (podzolisation of the white sands, rubefaction of the red sands). The numerical ages furthermore indicate that the Ankarokaroka lavaka formed between 18.5 ± 2.3 ka ago and the 14th century AD. The present study demonstrates that this lavaka has a climatic origin, and highlights the potential of OSL to date sediments associated with Madagascar lavaka. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Phosphorus (P) is one of the major limiting nutrient in many freshwater ecosystems. During the last decade, attention has been focused on the fluxes of suspended sediment and particulate P through freshwater drainage systems because of severe eutrophication effects in aquatic ecosystems. Hence, the analysis and prediction of phosphorus and sediment dynamics constitutes an important element for ecological conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems. In that sense, the development ofa suitable prediction model is justified and the present work is devoted to the validation and application of a predictive Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (SRP) uptake and sedimentation models, to a real riparian system of the middle Ebro river floodplain. Both models are coupled to a fully distributed 2D shallow water flow numerical model. The SRP uptake model is validated using data from three field experiments. The model predictions show a good accuracy for SRP concentration, where the linear regressions between measured and calculated of the three experiments were significant ( r 2  ≥ 0.62; p  ≤ 0.05), and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E) that ranged from 0.54 to 0.62. The sedimentation model is validated using field data collected during 2 real flooding events within the same river reach. The comparison between calculated and measured sediment deposition showed a significant linear regression ( p  ≤ 0.05; r 2  = 0.97) and an E that ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. Subsequently, the complete model that includes flow dynamics, solute transport, SRP uptake and sedimentation is used to simulate and analyze floodplain sediment deposition, river nutrient contribution and SRP uptake. According to this analysis, the main SRP uptake process appears to be the sediment sorption. The analysis also reveals the presence of a lateral gradient of hydrological connectivity that decreases with distance from the river, and controls the river matter contribution to the floodplain. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT Identifying the influence of neotectonics on the morphology of elevated passive margins is complicated in that major morpho-structural patterns might plausibly be explained by processes related to late Mesozoic to early Cenozoic rifting and/or differential erosion induced by Cenozoic epeirogenic uplift. The proportional contribution of each process can vary from continent to continent, and potentially even within the same passive margin. In the passive margin setting of the south-east Australian highlands the documented occurrence of neotectonic deformation is rare, and accordingly its role in landscape evolution is difficult to establish. The results of investigations within the Lapstone Structural Complex, which forms the eastern range front of the Blue Mountains Plateau, provide evidence for two periods of Cenozoic neotectonic uplift in this part of the highlands. The first, demonstrated by seismic and structural evidence, is suggested to have occurred in the Paleogene, and is thus unrelated to Cretaceous rifting. The second period, demonstrated by evidence from the Kurrajong Fault (presented herein) suggests that uplift occurred in both the Mio-Pliocene and the Middle Pleistocene. The cumulative Neogene and younger uplift of ~15 m determined for the Kurrajong Fault is less than 10% of the 130 m of total measured throw across the fault. The apparently minor contribution of neotectonism to the current elevation of the Blue Mountains Plateau supports a predominantly erosional exhumation origin for the topographic relief at the plateau's eastern edge. This finding contrasts with evidence from fault complexes associated with similar topographic relief elsewhere in the south-eastern highlands, indicating that present-day topography cannot be directly related to relief generated by Neogene and younger uplift, even from relatively closely-spaced (〈150 km) structures within the same passive margin. These findings have implications for understanding the spatio-temporal variability of post-rift faulting in continental passive margin settings and the evolution of landscapes therein. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The inherent effects of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on hydrological cycle and vegetation cover complicate the structure of tropical climate at the regional scale. Assessing hydrological processes related to climate forcing is important in Central America because it is surrounded by both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and two continental landmasses. In this study, the use of high-resolution remote sensing imagery in wavelet analysis helps identify nonstationary characteristics of hydrological and ecological responses. The wavelet-based empirical orthogonal function (WEOF) further reflects the nonlinear relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific SST and the greenness of a pristine forested site in Panama, La Amistad International Park. Integrated WEOF and descriptive statistics for data analysis reveal a higher temporal variability in terrestrial precipitation relative to in-situ land surface temperature and its probable effects on the presence of dry periods. Such teleconnection signals of SST were identified as a driving force of decline in tropical forest greenness during dry periods. The results of our remote sensing-based wavelet analysis showed intrannual high frequency and biennial to triennial low frequency signals between enhanced vegetation index (EVI)/precipitation datasets and SST indices in both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. A spatiotemporal priority search further confirmed the importance of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over terrestrial responses in the selected study site. Coincidence of the effect of ENSO teleconnection patterns on precipitation and vegetation suggest possible impacts of El Niño-associated droughts in Central America, accompanied by reduced rainfall, especially during the first months of rainy season (June, July and August), and decline in vegetation cover during the dry season (March and April). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Proliferation of evapotranspiration (ET) products warrants comparison of these products. The study objective was to assess uncertainty in ET output from four land surface models (LSMs), Noah, Mosaic, VIC, and SAC in NLDAS-2, two remote sensing-based products, MODIS and AVHRR, and GRACE-inferred ET from a water budget with precipitation from PRISM, monitored runoff, and total water storage change (TWSC) from GRACE satellites. The three cornered hat method, which does not require a priori knowledge of the true ET value, was used to estimate ET uncertainties. In addition, TWSC or total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE was compared with water budget estimates of TWSC from a flux-based approach or TWSA from a storage-based approach. The analyses were conducted using data from three regions (humid – arid) in the South Central US as case studies. Uncertainties in ET are lowest in LSM ET (~5 mm/month), moderate in MODIS- or AVHRR-based ET (10 – 15 mm/month), and highest in GRACE-inferred ET (20 – 30 mm/month). There is a tradeoff between spatial resolution and uncertainty, with lower uncertainty in the coarser-resolution LSM ET (~14 km) relative to higher uncertainty in the finer-resolution (~ 1 ‒ 8 km) RS ET. Root-mean-square (RMS) of uncertainties in water budget estimates of TWSC is about half of RMS of uncertainties in GRACE-derived TWSC for each of the regions. Future ET estimation should consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of LSMs and satellite-based products to constrain uncertainties.

Description: It is well documented that deforestation results in an increase in landslide frequency due to the control that forest roots have on slope stability. The loss of forest vegetation leads to a reduction in soil cohesion and a decrease in the shear strength of the soil profile. As a result, the slope becomes more susceptible to landsliding and the return time of landslides decreases. When a landslide removes the soil profile, there may not be adequate time for seedlings to grow and enhance soil stability. In this study, we investigate whether bistable dynamics emerge from the interaction of forest vegetation with the formation and accumulation of colluvial deposits in soil-mantled landscapes. To that end, we develop deterministic and stochastic models of landslide occurrence with a dynamic vegetation component. Results show that bistability exists for the deterministic case for both steep and shallow hollows under event and supply limited conditions. However, for the stochastic case, the randomness of landslide occurrence largely changed the states of the system such that the system only exhibited one stable state, which was the fully vegetated condition. Examining different management practices under stochastic conditions showed that the system eventually recovered; however, management practices influenced the recovery time of the forest. Thus, different management practices could render the land in a state of low vegetation over economically significant time periods.

Description: Seepage flux from ephemeral streams can be an important component of the water balance in arid and semi-arid regions. An emerging technique for quantifying this flux involves the measurement and simulation of a flood wave as it moves along an initially dry channel. This study investigates the usefulness of including surface water and groundwater data to improve model calibration when using this technique. We trialed this approach using a controlled flow event along a 1387 m reach of artificial stream channel. Observations were then simulated using a numerical model that combines the diffusion wave approximation of the Saint-Vénant equations for streamflow routing, with Philips’ infiltration equation and the groundwater flow equation. Model estimates of seepage flux for the upstream segments of the study reach, where streambed hydraulic conductivities were approximately 10 1 m d -1 , were on the order of 10 -4 m 3 d -1 m -2 . In the downstream segments, streambed hydraulic conductivities were generally much lower but highly variable (~10 -3 – 10 -7 m d -1 ). The Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showed that the flood front timing, surface water stage, groundwater heads and the predicted stream flow seepage were most influenced by specific yield. Furthermore, inclusion of groundwater data resulted in a higher estimate of total seepage estimates than if the flood front timing were used alone.

Description: ABSTRACT Burned areas in boreal mixedwood forests usually include tree patches that partially or entirely escaped fire. Some of these post-fire residual stands – called fire refuges – can escape several consecutive fires due to particular microsite conditions. Despite their potential importance as biodiversity hotspots, the long-term forest dynamics of fire refuges is unknown. High-resolution analysis of plant macroremains retrieved from forest organic matter profiles sampled in five fire refuges allowed us to describe up to 8000 years of forest dynamics. Our results display the importance of local conditions in forest dynamics. Wildfire was probably prevented by high moisture, as indicated by the presence of aquatic taxa and moisture-tolerant tree species. Lack of stand-replacing fire, coupled with organic matter accumulation, favored the millennial persistence of late-successional tree species. Shifts from spruce/larch dominance to fir/cedar dominance were noted at different occasions during the Holocene, probably resulting from endogenous processes.

Description: We review what is presently known about the climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and its projected recovery, focusing on the responses of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Compared to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this, recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes. It is emphasized, however, that not all aspects of the SH climate response to stratospheric ozone forcing can be understood in terms of changes in the midlatitude jet. The response of the Southern Ocean and sea ice to ozone depletion is currently a matter of debate. For the former, the debate is centered on the role of ocean eddies in possibly opposing wind-driven changes in the mean circulation. For the latter, the issue is reconciling the observed expansion of Antarctic sea ice extent during the satellite era with robust modeling evidence that the ice should melt as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion (and increases in GHGs). Despite lingering uncertainties, it has become clear that ozone depletion has been instrumental in driving SH climate change in recent decades. Similarly, ozone recovery will figure prominently in future climate change, with its impacts expected to largely cancel the impacts of increasing GHGs during the next half-century.

Description: This paper evaluates the IBIS land surface model using daily soil moisture data over a three-year period (2005–2007) at a semi-arid site in southeastern Australia, the Stanley catchment, using the Monte-Carlo GLUE approach. The model was satisfactorily calibrated for both the surface 30 cm and full profile 90 cm. However, full-profile calibration was not as good as that for the surface, which results from some deficiencies in the evapotranspiration component in IBIS. Relatively small differences in simulated soil moisture were associated with large discrepancies in the predictions of surface runoff, drainage and evapotranspiration. We conclude that while land surface schemes may be effective at simulating heat fluxes they may be ineffective for prediction of hydrology unless the soil moisture is accurately estimated. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the soil moisture simulations were most sensitive to soil parameters, and the wilting point was the most identifiable parameter. Significant interactions existed between three soils parameters: porosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity and Campbell “b” exponent so they could not be identified independent of each other. There were no significant differences in parameter sensitivity and interaction for different hydroclimatic years. Even though the data record contained a very dry year and another year with a very large rainfall event, this indicated that the soil model could be calibrated without the data needing to explore the extreme range of dry and wet conditions. IBIS was much less sensitive to vegetation parameters. The leaf area index (LAI) could affect the mean of daily soil moisture time series when LAI 〈 1, while the variance of the soil moisture time series was sensitive to LAI 〉 1. IBIS was insensitive to the Jackson rooting parameter, suggesting that the effect of the rooting depth distribution on predictions of hydrology was insignificant. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: [1]  The equatorial Pacific is a dynamic region that plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. This region is the largest oceanic source of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the atmosphere, which varies interannually dependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climatic and oceanic drivers. We present high-resolution observations of surface ocean CO 2 partial pressure ( p CO 2 ) at four fixed locations in the Niño 3.4 area with datasets encompassing 10 ENSO warm and cold events from 1997 to 2011. The mooring observations confirm that ENSO controls much of the interannual variability in surface seawater p CO 2 with values ranging from 315 to 578 µatm. The mooring time series also capture the temporal variability necessary to make the first estimates of long-term pH trends in the equatorial Pacific, which suggest the combination of ocean acidification and decadal variability create conditions for high rates of pH change since the beginning of the mooring record. Anthropogenic CO 2 increases play a dominant role in significant observed seawater p CO 2 trends of +2.3 to +3.3 µatm yr -1 and pH trends of -0.0018 to -0.0026 yr -1 across the full time series in this region. However, increased upwelling driven by increased trade winds, a shallower thermocline, and increased frequency of La Niña events also contribute an average of 40% of the observed trends since 1998. These trends are higher than previous estimates based on underway observations and suggest that the equatorial Pacific is contributing a greater amount of CO 2 to the atmospheric CO 2 inventory over the last decade.

Description: We present a probabilistic sediment cascade model to simulate sediment transfer in a mountain basin (Illgraben, Switzerland) where sediment is produced by hillslope landslides and rockfalls and exported out of the basin by debris flows and floods. The model conceptualizes the fluvial system as a spatially lumped cascade of connected reservoirs representing hillslope and channel storages where sediment goes through cycles of storage and remobilization by surface runoff. The model includes all relevant hydrological processes that lead to runoff formation in an Alpine basin, such as precipitation, snow accumulation, snow melt, evapotranspiration, and soil water storage. Although the processes of sediment transfer and debris flow generation are described in a simplified manner, the model produces complex sediment discharge behavior which is driven by the availability of sediment and antecedent wetness conditions (system memory) as well as the triggering potential (climatic forcing). The observed probability distribution of debris flow volumes and their seasonality in 2000-2009 are reproduced. The stochasticity of hillslope sediment input is important for reproducing realistic sediment storage variability, although many details of the hillslope landslide triggering procedures are filtered out by the sediment transfer system. The model allows us to explicitly quantify the division into transport and supply-limited sediment discharge events. We show that debris flows may be generated for a wide range of rainfall intensities because of variable antecedent basin wetness and snowmelt contribution to runoff, which helps to understand the limitations of methods based on a single rainfall threshold for debris flow initiation in Alpine basins.

Description: Potter et al., (2013) highlight the challenges and provide recommendations for progress in representing microclimate in Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which are widely used to predict distributions by establishing relationships between climatic variables and species presence. They show that the grid lengths of published SDMs are typically four orders of magnitude larger than the length of animals under study, and three orders of magnitude larger than plants. They conclude that the mismatch between the length scales of climate data and the species themselves is a major barrier for progress, and that the ideal spatial resolution for climate data in SDMs, notwithstanding practical constraints, is between 1 and 10 times the length of the organism. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Characterizing the complex geometries and the heterogeneity of the deposits in meandering river systems is a long-standing issue for the 3D modeling of alluvial formations. Such deposits are important sources of accessible groundwater in alluvial aquifers throughout the world and also play a major role as hydrocarbons reservoirs. In this paper we present a method to generate meandering river centerlines that are stochastic, geologically realistic, connected and conditioned to local observations or global geomorphological characteristics. The method is based on fast 1D multiple-point statistics in a transformed curvilinear domain: the succession in directions observed in a real world meandering river (the analog) is considered as statistical model for multiple-point statistics simulation. The integration of local data is accomplished by an inverse procedure ensuring that the channels pass through a given set of locations while conserving the high-order spatial characteristics of an analog. The methodology is applied on seven real world case studies. This work demonstrates the flexibility and the applicability of multiple-point statistics outside the standard paradigm that considers the simulation of a 2D or 3D variable with spatial coordinates.

Description: Large asymmetric bedforms commonly develop in rivers. The turbulence associated with flow separation that develops over their steep lee side is responsible for the form shear stress which can represent a substantial part of total shear stress in rivers. This paper uses the Delft3D modeling system to investigate the effects of bedform geometry and forcing conditions on flow separation length and associated turbulence, and bedform shear stress over angle-of-repose (30° lee side angle) bedforms. The model was validated with laboratory measurements that showed sufficient agreement to be used for a systematic analysis. The influence of flow velocity, bed roughness, relative height (bedform height / water depth) and aspect ratio (bedform height / length) on the variations of the normalized length of the flow separation zone, the extent of the wake region (where the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was more than 70% of the maximum TKE), the average TKE within the wake region and the form shear stress were investigated. Form shear stress was found not to scale with the size of the flow separation zone but to be related to the product of the normalized extent of the wake region (extent of the wake region / extent of water body above the bedform) and the average TKE within the wake region. The results add to understanding of the hydrodynamics of bedforms and may be used for the development of better parameterizations of small-scale processes for application in large-scale studies.

Description: We explore the bankfull width ( W bf ) vs. drainage area ( A da ) relationship across a range of climatic and geologic environments, and ask (1) is the relationship between ln ( W bf ) and ln ( A da ) best described by a linear function and (2) can a reliable relationship be developed for predicting W bf with A da as the only independent variable. The principal dataset for this study was compiled from regional curve studies and other reports that represent 1,018 sites (1 m ≤ W bf ≤ 110 m and 0.50 km 2 ≤ A da ≤ 22,000 km 2 ) in the continental U.S. Two additional datasets were used for validation. After dividing the data into small-, medium-, and large-size basins which, respectfully, correspond to A da 〈 4.95 km 2 , 4.95 km 2 ≤ A da 〈 337 km 2 , and A da ≥ 337 km 2 , regression lines from each dataset were compared using one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). A second ANCOVA was performed to determine if mean annual precipitation ( P ) is an extraneous factor in the W bf vs. A da relationship. The ANCOVA results reveal that using A da alone does not yield a reliable W bf vs. A da relationship that is applicable across a wide range of environments and that P is a significant extraneous factor in the relationship. Considering data for very small basins ( A da ≤ 0.49 km 2 ) and very large basins ( A da ≥ 1.0×10 5 km 2 ) we conclude that a two-segment linear model is the most probable form of the ln ( W bf ) vs. ln ( A da ) relationship. This study provides useful information for building complex multivariate models for predicting W bf .

Description: ABSTRACT The paper presents the result of an application of the GeoWEPP model in a heterogeneous semi-agricultural catchment located in the northern Italian Apennines mountain range. The objectives were: (a) to evaluate the GeoWEPP model in a heterogeneous catchment in a Mediterranean climate and (b) to examine the effect of digital elevation model grid size on hydrological and sediment yield simulations. The catchment is characterized by large heterogeneity in geology, soil type, vegetation cover and topography. In addition, 10% of its area is occupied by calanchi (badlands), characterized by steep, bare soil and accentuated erosion. Experimental stream flow data were compared with those simulated by GeoWEPP for a period of 8 years and the results were evaluated by means of statistical indices, with the analysis of the flow duration curve. Simulated sediment yields were compared with experimental data for one year. The stream flow cumulative annual results were satisfactory with NSE oscillating between 0.40 and 0.83 and RMSE between 1.1 and 2.9 mm. Also, the performance of the model with daily stream flow data was positive (NSE = 0.68 and RMSE = 1.9 mm). The flow duration curve indicated that GeoWEPP could represent the experimental stream flow for fluxes over 1 mm d -1 . The model performance for simulation of sediment yield was satisfactory with both digital elevation models of different grid sizes (NSE 0.84 and 0.87). Indeed, the sensitivity analysis tests of the model showed that there was no statistically significant improvement in the accuracy of the digital elevation model between 10 and 2 meter resolution. These results were confirmed for both stream flow as well as sediment yield. Additional sensitivity analysis of other model parameters performed on the entire catchment and badlands hillslopes showed that bedrock hydraulic conductivity primarily affected the model in both settings. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT Forecasts of water level during river floods require accurate predictions of the evolution of river dune dimensions, because the hydraulic roughness of the main channel is largely determined by the bed morphology. River dune dimensions are controlled by processes like merging and splitting of dunes. Particularly the process of dune splitting is still poorly understood and – as a result - not yet included in operational dune evolution models. In the current paper, the process of dune splitting is investigated by carrying out laboratory experiments and by means of a sensitivity analysis using a numerical dune evolution model. In the numerical dune evolution model, we introduced superimposed TRIAS ripples (i.e. TRIangular Asymmetric Stoss side-ripples) on the stoss sides of underlying dunes as soon as these stoss sides exceed a certain critical length. Simulations with the model including dune splitting showed that predictions of equilibrium dune characteristics were significantly improved compared to the model without dune splitting. As dune splitting is implemented in a parameterized way, the computational cost remains low which means that dune evolution can be calculated on the time scale of a flood wave. Subsequently, we used this model to study the mechanism of dune splitting. Literature showed that the initiation of a strong flow separation zone behind a superimposed bed forms is one of the main mechanisms behind dune splitting. The flume experiments indicated that besides its height also the lee side slope of the superimposed bed form is an important factor to determine the strength of the flow separation zone and therefore is an important aspect in dune splitting. The sensitivity analysis of the dune evolution model showed that a minimum stoss side length was required to develop a strong flow separation zone. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT In the last few centuries humans have modified rivers, and rivers have responded with noticeable changes in sedimentary dynamics. The objective of this study is to assess these responses of the sedimentary dynamics. Therefore, we calculated a sediment budget for eroded and deposited sediment volumes in a ~12-km long floodplain section of the largest semi-natural embanked but still dynamic lower Rhine distributary, for ~50-years time slices between 1631 AD and present. This is the period during which embanked floodplains were formed by downstream migration of meander bends between confining dykes. Our sediment budget involves a detailed reconstruction of vertical and lateral accretion rates and erosion rates of floodplain sediment. To do so, we developed a series of historical geomorphological maps, and lithogenetic cross-sections. Based on the maps and cross-sections, we divided the floodplain into building blocks representing channel bed and overbank sediment bodies. Chronostratigraphy within the blocks was estimated by interpretation of heavy metal profiles and from optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating results. Sediment budgets were hence calculated as a change of volume of each building block between time steps. The amount of lateral accretion initially increased, as a result of island and sand bar formation following embankment. From the 18 th century onwards, there was a decrease of lateral processes in time, which is a result of straightening of the river by human activities, and a reduction of water and sediment supply due to the construction of a new upstream bifurcation. With straightening of the river, the floodplain area grew. Artificial fixation of the channel banks after 1872 AD prevented lateral activity. From then on, overbank deposition became the main process, leading to a continuous increase of floodplain elevation, and inherent decrease of flooding frequency and sediment accumulation rate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The ventilation index serves as a theoretically-based metric to assess possible changes in the statistics of tropical cyclones to combined changes in vertical wind shear, midlevel entropy deficit, and potential intensity in climate models. Model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models is used to calculate the ventilation index. The ventilation index and its relationship to tropical cyclone activity between two twenty-year periods are compared: the historical experiment from 1981 to 2000 and the RCP8.5 experiment from 2081 to 2100. The general tendency is for an increase in the seasonal ventilation index in the majority of the tropical cyclone basins, with exception of the North Indian basin. All the models project an increase in the midlevel entropy deficit in the tropics, although the effects of this increase on the ventilation index itself are tempered by a compensating increase in the potential intensity and a decrease in the vertical wind shear in most tropical cyclone basins. The nonlinear combination of the terms in the ventilation index results in large regional and intermodel variability. Basin changes in the ventilation index are well correlated with changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification in the climate models. However, there is large uncertainty in the projections of the ventilation index and the corresponding effects on changes in the statistics of tropical cyclone activity.

Description: Lagrangian large-eddy simulations of a composite stratocumulus to cumulus transition case over the subtropical northeast Pacific Ocean are subject to perturbed forcings that isolate the cloud response to CO 2 , to overall tropical warming, and to increased inversion stability over the subtropical subsidence regions. These simulations show that a tropical surface warming of 4~K induces substantial stratocumulus thinning via a thermodynamic mechanism: Increased cloud layer humidity flux in a warmer climate induces an entrainment liquid-flux adjustment that dries the stratocumulus cloud layer, whether well-mixed or cumulus-coupled. A radiative mechanism amplifies this response: Increased emissivity of the free troposphere due to increased CO 2 and water vapor reduces radiative driving of turbulence in a stratocumulus-capped boundary layer; a thinner stratocumulus layer accompanies less turbulence. In combination, a 4 K warming and CO 2 quadrupling greatly reduce low cloud and weaken the simulated shortwave cloud radiative effect by over 50%. Large increases in inversion stability in the stratocumulus regions could counter much of this cloudiness reduction.

Description: The demand for substantial increases in the spatial resolution of global weather- and climate- prediction models makes it necessary to use numerically efficient and highly scalable algorithms to solve the equations of large scale atmospheric fluid dynamics. For stability and efficiency reasons several of the operational forecasting centres, in particular the Met Office and the ECMWF in the UK, use semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian time stepping in the dynamical core of the model. The additional burden with this approach is that a three dimensional elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) for the pressure correction has to be solved at every model time step and this often constitutes a significant proportion of the time spent in the dynamical core. In global models this PDE must be solved in a thin spherical shell. To run within tight operational time scales the solver has to be parallelised and there seems to be a (perceived) misconception that elliptic solvers do not scale to large processor counts and hence implicit time stepping can not be used in very high resolution global models. After reviewing several methods for solving the elliptic PDE for the pressure correction and their application in atmospheric models we demonstrate the performance and very good scalability of Krylov subspace solvers and multigrid algorithms for a representative model equation with more than 10 10 unknowns on 65536 cores on HECToR, the UK’s national supercomputer. For this we tested and optimised solvers from two existing numerical libraries ( DUNE and hypre) and implemented both a Conjugate Gradient solver and a geometric multigrid algorithm based on a tensor-product approach which exploits the strong vertical anisotropy of the discretised equation. We study both weak and strong scalability and compare the absolute solution times for all methods; in contrast to one-level methods the multigrid solver is robust with respect to parameter variations.

Description: This paper is concerned with a dust-raising cold pool over the Sahara desert that occurred on August 3-5, 2006. Both the quantity of the uplifted dust and its spatio-temporal evolution are examined using satellite observations and a numerical simulation. The dust emission during this event was initiated by a mesoscale cold pool emanating from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that developed over northern Niger and Mali on August 3. This event is one of several exceptional northward surges of the West African Monsoon (WAM) during the 2006 wet season. We examine the propagation of the cold pool and associated dust lofting using high temporal resolution false-color dust product images from the Meteosat Second Generation Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (MSG-SEVIRI). Observations from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) are used to characterize the vertical structure of the dust cloud as it spreads over the Sahara and across the Atlantic coast. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (ECMWF-AMMA) special reanalysis was used to describe the synoptic conditions that accompanied this event. Furthermore, a numerical simulation using the mesoscale model MesoNH was performed to estimate the emissions and the westward transport of dust during this event. MODIS AOD satellite imagery has then been used to track the dust plume across the Atlantic Ocean to Barbados, where comparisons are made with the local dust record there. The dusty cold pool covered southern Algeria and a large part of northern Mali and Western Niger attaining a total area close to 2 x 10 6 km 2 . It extended over 2-3 km in altitude and had an aerosol optical depth on the order of 1.5 and an estimated total dust load of about 1.5 Tg on average. Following daytime heating, the dusty cold pool and associated northward surge of moisture favored the development of new convection and additional precipitation over the Sahara. The northward extension of the dusty cold pool was accompanied by a collapse of the Saharan heat low, a characteristic feature of monsoon surges. A model-estimated quantity of 0.4 Tg of the dust produced during this event was subjected to westward transport toward the Atlantic Ocean after being mixed upward in the thickening boundary layer by the daytime heating over the Sahara to altitudes as high as 5-6 km. The arrival of the dust plume in Barbados in the Caribbean Sea 9 days after its departure from the west coast of Africa was characterized by a peak in dust concentration of 48.5 µg. m -3 .

Description: It is customary in atmospheric britishmodelling to approximate the equi-geopotential surfaces of apparent gravity as spheres, and to use spherical polar coordinates to represent the global atmosphere. However Earth's mean surface is more accurately approximated by a spheroid of revolution than by a sphere, and therefore the geopotential surfaces are better represented as spheroidal surfaces than spherical ones. Several authors have considered how to develop a spheroidal coordinate system. The keystone for this is a sufficiently-accurate, yet simple and flexible, mathematical approximation of the geopotential for a spheroidal Earth. Geopotential approximation is a compromise between the extremes of being either too simple, with deficient representation of the essentials of the underlying physics, or too complicated, leading to overly-complicated coordinate systems. A new spheroidal geopotential approximation is proposed herein. It is relatively simple, and analytically tractable, yet properly represents the underlying physics. Using this new approximation, a new, relatively simple, quasi-orthogonal spheroidal coordinate system is developed. It is then straightforward to obtain the customary spherical geopotential approximation, with its associated use of spherical polar coordinates, as an asymptotic limit of this new formulation. This confirms a previous finding, obtained using a different quasi-orthogonal coordinate system. The spheroidal geopotential approximation, and quasi-orthogonal coordinate system, proposed herein are however much simpler, yet no less accurate. They thereby lead to a much simpler, more direct, yet equally rigorous, justification for the spherical geopotential approximation.

Description: We propose a strategy to couple a stochastic lattice-gas model of a cloud system to a rather general class of convective parameterization schemes. As proposed in similar models recently presented in the literature, a cloud system in a grid-box of general circulation model (GCM) is modelled as a sub-grid lattice of N elements which can be in one out of S states, each corresponding to a different convective regime. The time evolution of each element of the lattice is represented as a Markov process characterized by transition rates dependent on large-scale fields and/or local interactions. In order to make applications to GCMs computationally feasible, we propose a reduction method leading to a system of S -1 stochastic differential equations with multiplicative noise. The accuracy of the reduction method is tested in a minimal version of the model. The coupling to a convective scheme is performed in such a way that in the limit of space ant time scale separation the modified stochastic parameterization converges to the original deterministic version of the host scheme. Experiments with a real GCM are then performed coupling the minimal version of the stochastic model to the Betts-Miller scheme in an aqua-planet version of the Planet Simulator. In this configuration the stochastic extension of the parameterization keeps the climatology of its deterministic limit but strongly impacts the statistics of the extremes of daily convective precipitation.

Description: ABSTRACT There has been increasing use of live vegetation in laboratory experiments, in particular in fluvial geomorphology. The results from these studies have provided useful insight into the role that vegetation plays in impacting and modifying geomorphic systems. However there has been little published on the seed preparation techniques and vegetation growing conditions required for use in these experiments. This commentary presents results from a series of experiments investigating these factors using Medicago sativa and Avena Sativa , with the aim of highlighting the optimal growing conditions found to provide a starting point for researchers interested in implementing these techniques. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Over the past few decades ground water has become an essential commodity due to increased demand as a result of growing population, industrialization, urbanization etc. The water supply situation is expected to become more severe in the future because of continued unsustainable water use and projected change in hydro-meteorological parameters due to climate change. This study is based on the integrated approach of Remote Sensing (RS), Geographical Information System (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques to determine the most important contributing factors that affect the ground water resources and to delineate the ground water potential zones. Ten thematic layers viz. geomorphology, geology, soil, topographic elevation (DEM), land use/land cover, drainage density, lineament density, proximity of surface water bodies, surface temperature and post-monsoon ground water depth were considered for the present study. These thematic layers were selected for ground water prospecting based on literature, discussion with the experts of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), Government of India, field observations, geophysical investigation and multivariate techniques. The thematic layers and their features were assigned suitable weights on the Saaty's scale according to their relative significance for ground water occurrence. The assigned weights of the layers and their features were normalized by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and eigenvector method. Finally, the selected thematic maps were integrated using weighted linear combination method to create the final ground water potential zone map. The final output map shows different zones of ground water potential, viz., very good (16%), good (35%), moderate (28%) low (17%) and very low (2.1%). The ground water potential zone map was finally validated using the discharge and ground water depth data from 28 and 98 pumping wells respectively which showed good correlation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Bank erosion is the main source of suspended sediment (SS) and diffuse total phosphorus (TP) in many lowland catchments. This study compared a physically based sediment routing method (Physical method), which distinguishes between stream bed and bank erosion, with the original sediment routing method (Original method) within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2009, for simulating SS and TP losses from a lowland catchment. A SWAT model was set up for the lowland River Odense catchment in Denmark and calibrated against observed stream flow and phosphate (PO 4 ) loads. Based on an initial calibration of hydrological and PO 4 parameters, the SWAT model with the Original method (Original model) and the SWAT model with the Physical method (Physical model) were calibrated separately against observed SS and TP loads. The SWAT model simulated daily stream flow well, but underestimated PO 4 loads. The Physical model simulated daily SS and TP better than the Original model. The simulated contribution of bank erosion to SS in the Physical model (99%) was close to the estimated contribution from in-situ erosion measurements (90-94%). Compared with the Original method, the Physical method is not only more conceptually correct, but also improves model performance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This paper focuses on surface-subsurface water exchange in a steep coarse-bedded stream with step-pool morphology. We use both flume experiments and numerical modelling to investigate the influence of stream discharge, channel slope and sediment hydraulic conductivity on hyporheic exchange. The model step-pool reach, whose topography is scaled from a natural river, consists of 3 step-pool units with 0.1 m step heights, discharges ranging between base and over bankfull flows (scaled values of 0.3-4.5 L/s) and slopes of 4 and 8%. Results indicate that the deepest hyporheic flow occurs with the steeper slope and at moderate discharges and downwelling fluxes at the base of steps are highest at the largest stream discharges. In contrast to pool-riffle morphology, these findings show that steep slopes cause deeper surface-subsurface exchanges than gentle slopes. Numerical simulation results show that the portion of the hyporheic zone influenced by surface water temperature increases with sediment hydraulic conductivity. These experiments and numerical simulations emphasize the importance of topography, sediment permeability and roughness elements along the channel surface in governing the locations and magnitude of downwelling fluxes and hyporheic exchange. Our results show that hyporheic zones in these steep streams are thicker than previously expected by extending the results from streams with pool-riffle bed forms. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recent studies show that multimodel combinations improve hydroclimatic predictions by reducing model uncertainty. Given that climate forecasts are available from multiple climate models, which could be ingested with multiple watershed models, what is the best strategy to reduce the uncertainty in streamflow forecasts? To address this question, we consider three possible strategies: (1) reduce the input uncertainty first by combining climate models and then use the multimodel climate forecasts with multiple watershed models (MM-P) (2) ingest the individual climate forecasts (without multimodel combination) with various watershed models and then combine the streamflow predictions that arise from all possible combinations of climate and watershed models (MM-Q)(3) combine the streamflow forecasts obtained from multiple watershed models based on strategy (1) to develop a single streamflow prediction that reduces uncertainty in both climate forecasts and watershed models (MM-PQ) . For this purpose, we consider synthetic schemes that generate streamflow and climate forecasts, for comparing the performance of three strategies with the true streamflow generated by a given hydrologic model. Results from the synthetic study show that reducing input uncertainty first ( MM-P ) by combining climate forecasts results in reduced error in predicting the true streamflow compared to the error of multimodel streamflow forecasts obtained by combining streamflow forecasts from all-possible combination of individual climate model with various hydrologic models ( MM-Q ). Since the true hydrologic model structure is unknown, it is desirable to consider MM-PQ as an alternate choice that reduces both input uncertainty and hydrologic model uncertainty. Application on two watersheds in NC also indicates that reducing the input uncertainty first is critical before reducing the hydrologic model uncertainty.

Description: The understanding of reasons leading to non-uniqueness of soil erosion susceptibility is still inadequate, yet indispensable for establishing general relations between runoff volume and sediment yield. To obtain relevant insights, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic model using synthetic storms of varying intensity, duration, and lag time between events as representations of different hydrologic response conditions in a zero-order catchment. The design targeted to generate surface flow and ‘perturb’ soil substrate by a first rainfall event, creating a set of initial conditions in terms of flow and deposited sediment prior to the onset of a subsequent rainfall event. Due to the differential effect of (re)detachment and (re)entrainment processes on soil particles of varying sizes, the deposited sediment mass formed shielding layer. One of the essential results is that unless the initial condition of flow and sediment is identical, the same volume of runoff can generate different total sediment yields and their variation can reach up to ~200%. The effect is attributed to two major conflicting effects exerted by the deposited ‘initialization’ (soil antecedent condition) sediment mass: erosion enhancement, because of supply of highly erodible sediment, and erosion impediment, because of constrain on the availability of lighter particles by heavier sediment. Consistently with this inference, long-term simulations with continuous rainfall show that a peculiar feature of sediment yield series is the existence of maximum before the steady-state is reached. The two characteristic time scales, the time to peak and the time to steady-state, separate three characteristic periods that correspond to flow-limited, source-limited, and steady-state regimes. These time scales are log-linearly and negatively related to the spatially averaged Shields parameter: the smaller the rainfall input and the heavier a given particle is, the larger the two scales are. The results provide insights on how the existence of shield operates on erosion processes, possibly implying that accurate short-term predictions of geomorphic events from headwater areas may never become a tractable problem: the latter would require a detailed spatial characterization of particle size distribution prior to precipitation events.

Description: Climate-driven range shifts are ongoing in pelagic marine environments, and ecosystems must respond to combined effects of altered species distributions and environmental drivers. Hypoxic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in midwater environments are shoaling globally; this can affect distributions of species both geographically and vertically along with predator–prey dynamics. Humboldt (jumbo) squid ( Dosidicus gigas ) are highly migratory predators adapted to hypoxic conditions that may be deleterious to their competitors and predators. Consequently, OMZ shoaling may preferentially facilitate foraging opportunities for Humboldt squid. With two separate modeling approaches using unique, long-term data based on in situ observations of predator, prey, and environmental variables, our analyses suggest that Humboldt squid are indirectly affected by OMZ shoaling through effects on a primary food source, myctophid fishes. Our results suggest that this indirect linkage between hypoxia and foraging is an important driver of the ongoing range expansion of Humboldt squid in the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Description: Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1,500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus , and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum . Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the ‘Akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘Akeke'e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau between 1994-1997 and again between 2007-2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1,100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1,250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%) and upper ends of the Plateau (1,350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i ‘Elepaio ( Chasiempis sclateri ), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased transmission of avian malaria. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT Climate warming has been observed for some time in the permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), China, resulting in active layer thickening, shrinkage or expansion of thermokarst lakes, and reduced permafrost extent. Little is known, however, about the hydrological processes near thermokarst lakes and their influences on lake development. We employed ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiling, topographic mapping and drilling to explore the interaction between hydrological processes and thermokarst lake development at a site on the QTP. The GPR data and borehole water-level measurements revealed spatio-temporal variation of the frost table and soil water storage, and indicated the main direction of subsurface flow through soil on hillslopes near the lake. The measurements hinted at the self-organised formation of lateral flow channels at the thawing frost table near the lake. The ensuing recharge of the lake is balanced by drainage from the deepest end of the lake, down the topographic gradient, as ascertained by coring and lake bed mapping. Such a process-based qualitative understanding is crucial for assessing the impact of climate change, in conjunction with the local topography and hydrogeology, on the evolution of thermokarst lakes on the QTP. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: [1]  Understanding the processes that control the terrestrial exchange of carbon is critical for assessing atmospheric CO 2 budgets. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is taken up by vegetation during photosynthesis following a pathway that mirrors CO 2 , but has a small or non-existent emission component. This tracer could thus provide a means to separate photosynthetic and respiration fluxes. We present field measurements of COS and CO 2 mixing ratios made during the summer of 2012 in a forest, senescent grassland and riparian ecosystem using a laser absorption spectrometer installed in a mobile trailer. Measurements of leaf fluxes with a branch-bag gas-exchange system were made across species from 10 genera of trees, and soil fluxes were measured with a flow-through chamber across a number of soil types. These data provide an extensive characterization of surface COS fluxes and show: (1) the existence of a narrow normalized daytime uptake ratio of COS to CO 2 across vascular plant species of 1.7, providing critical information for the application of COS to estimate photosynthetic CO 2 fluxes and (2) a temperature-dependent normalized uptake ratio of COS to CO 2 from soils. Significant nighttime uptake of COS was observed in broad-leafed species and revealed active stomatal opening hours prior to sunrise. Joint measurements of ambient near-surface COS and CO 2 concentrations are used here alongside the flux measurements to partition the relative influence that leaf and soil fluxes and entrainment of air from above have on the surface carbon budget. The time-dependent co-variation of COS and CO 2 in the ambient surface air sheds light on the dominant processes influencing the surface carbon budget in ways that cannot be done with measurements of only CO 2 . The results provide a number of critical constraints on the processes that control surface COS exchange, which can be used to diagnose the robustness of global models that are beginningto use COS to constrain terrestrial carbon exchange.

Description: Aquifer hydraulic properties such as hydraulic conductivity ( K ) are ubiquitously heterogeneous and typically only a statistical characterization can be sought. Additionally statistical anisotropy at typical characterization scales is the rule. Thus, regardless of the processes governing solute transport at the local (pore) scale, transport becomes non-Fickian. Mass-transfer models provide an efficient tool that reproduces observed anomalous transport; in some cases though, these models lack predictability as model parameters cannot readily be connected to the physical properties of aquifers. In this study we focus on a multi-rate mass-transfer model (MRMT), and in particular the apparent capacity coefficient (β), which is a strong indicator of the potential of immobile zones to capture moving solute. We aim to find if the choice of an apparent β can be phenomenologically related to measures of statistical anisotropy. We analyzed an ensemble of random simulations of three-dimensional log-transformed multi-Gaussian permeability fields with stationary anisotropic correlation under convergent flow conditions. It was found that apparent β also displays an anisotropic behavior, physically controlled by the aquifer directional connectivity, which in turn is controlled by the anisotropic correlation model. A high hydraulic connectivity results in large β values. These results provide new insights into the practical use of mass-transfer models for predictive purposes.

Description: [1]  Wetlands comprise the single largest global source of atmospheric methane, but current flux estimates disagree in both magnitude and distribution at the continental scale. This study uses atmospheric methane observations over North America from 2007–2008 and a geostatistical inversion to improve understanding of Canadian methane fluxes and associated biogeochemical models. The results bridge an existing gap between traditional top-down, inversion studies, which typically emphasize total emission budgets, and biogeochemical models, which usually emphasize environmental processes. The conclusions of this study are threefold. First, the most complete process-based methane models do not always describe available atmospheric methane observations better than simple models. In this study, a relatively simple model of wetland distribution, soil moisture, and soil temperature outperformed more complex model formulations. Second, we find that wetland methane fluxes have a broader spatial distribution across western Canada and into the northern US than represented in existing flux models. Finally, we calculate total methane budgets for Canada and for the Hudson Bay Lowlands, a large wetland region (50–60°N, 75–96°W). Over these lowlands, we find total methane fluxes of 1.8 ± 0.24 TgC yr − 1 , a number in the mid-range of previous estimates. Our total Canadian methane budget of 16.0 ± 1.2 TgC yr − 1 is larger than existing inventories, primarily due to high anthropogenic emissions in Alberta. However, methane observations are sparse in western Canada, and additional measurements over Alberta will constrain anthropogenic sources in that province with greater confidence.

Description: Biomass carbon accumulation in forest ecosystems is a widespread phenomenon at both regional and global scales. However, as coupled carbon-climate models predicted, a positive feedback could be triggered if accelerated soil carbon decomposition offsets enhanced vegetation growth under a warming climate. It is thus crucial to reveal whether and how soil carbon stock in forest ecosystems has changed over recent decades. However, large-scale changes in soil carbon stock across forest ecosystems have not yet been carefully examined at both regional and global scales, which have been widely perceived as a big bottleneck in untangling carbon-climate feedback. Using newly-developed database and sophisticated data-mining approach, here we evaluated temporal changes in topsoil carbon stock across major forest ecosystem in China and analyzed potential drivers in soil carbon dynamics over broad geographic scale. Our results indicated that topsoil carbon stock increased significantly within all of five major forest types during the period of 1980s-2000s, with an overall rate of 20.0 g C m −2 yr −1 (95% confidence interval, 14.1-25.5). The magnitude of soil carbon accumulation across coniferous forests and coniferous/broadleaved mixed forests exhibited meaningful increases with both mean annual temperature and precipitation. Moreover, soil carbon dynamics across these forest ecosystems was positively associated with clay content, with a larger amount of SOC accumulation occurring in fine-textured soils. In contrast, changes in soil carbon stock across broadleaved forests were insensitive to either climatic or edaphic variables. Overall, these results suggest that soil carbon accumulation does not counteract vegetation carbon sequestration across China's forest ecosystems. The combination of soil carbon accumulation and vegetation carbon sequestration triggers a negative feedback to climate warming, rather than a positive feedback predicted by coupled carbon-climate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: [1]  The Sargasso Sea is characterized by strong summertime stratification that is thought to drive oligotrophy, but export production is surprisingly similar to that of high-latitude regions with ample major nutrient supply. Here, we use the summer-to-fall progression in the northwestern Sargasso Sea to investigate the relationship between upper ocean stratification and phytoplankton nitrogen (N) uptake. Euphotic zone particles collected in July, October, and December were sorted by flow cytometry, and the 15  N/ 14  N of separated prokaryotic and eukaryotic phytoplankton was analyzed. The 15  N/ 14  N of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus was always low, indicating uniform reliance on recycled N. In July and in two fall profiles, the 15  N/ 14  N of eukaryotic phytoplankton was high, reflecting consumption of subsurface nitrate. In three other fall profiles, eukaryotic 15  N/ 14  N was similar to prokaryote 15  N/ 14  N, suggesting a shift toward more complete reliance on recycled N. The progressive deepening of the mixed layer from summer to fall, although reducing the surface-to-deep density contrast, increases the density difference of the euphotic zone as a whole from underlying nutrient-rich waters, which may play a role in the observed decline in euphotic zone nitrate supply into the fall. The apparent summertime nitrate supply to the euphotic zone, when the mixed layer is shallowest, may help to explain the surprisingly high export production of the subtropical and tropical ocean.

Description: In this paper, an operational algorithm is proposed for the mapping of surface moisture over the northern and central parts of Tunisia, in North Africa. A change detection approach is applied, using 160 multi-incidence Envisat ASAR Wide Swath images acquired in the horizontal polarization over a 7-year period. Parameterization of this algorithm is considered for three classes of vegetation cover density (NDVI〈0.25, 0.25〈NDVI〈0.5 and NDVI〉0.5), retrieved from SPOT-VGT decadal images. A relative soil moisture index, ranging between 0 (for the driest surfaces) and 1 (for saturated soils), is proposed for each date, with a resolution of 1 km. The retrieved soil moistures are validated by means of ground measurements based on continuous thetaprobe measurements, as well as low resolution (25 km) ERS and ASCAT soil moisture products from the Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien). A qualitative relationship between spatio-temporal variations of moisture and precipitation is also discussed.

Description: Predicted decreases in water availability across the temperate forest biome have the potential to offset gains in carbon (C) uptake from phenology trends, rising atmospheric CO 2 , and nitrogen deposition. While it is well-established that severe droughts reduce the C sink of forests by inducing tree mortality, the impacts of mild but chronic water stress on forest phenology and physiology are largely unknown. We quantified the C consequences of chronic water stress using a 13-year record of tree growth (n = 200 trees), soil moisture, and ecosystem C balance at the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, and a regional 11-year record of tree growth (n 〉300,000 trees) and water availability for the 20 most dominant deciduous broadleaf tree species across the Eastern and Midwestern USA. We show that despite ~26 more days of C assimilation by trees at the MMSF, increasing water stress decreased the number of days of wood production by ~42 days over the same period, reducing the annual accrual of C in woody biomass by 41%. Across the deciduous forest region, water stress induced similar declines in tree growth, particularly for water-demanding “mesophytic” tree species. Given the current replacement of water-stress adapted “xerophytic” tree species by mesophytic tree species, we estimate that chronic water stress has the potential to decrease the C sink of deciduous forests by up to 17% (0.04 Pg C yr −1 ) in the coming decades. This reduction in the C sink due to mesophication and chronic water stress is equivalent to an additional 1 to 3 days of global C emissions from fossil fuel burning each year. Collectively, our results indicate that regional declines in water availability may offset the growth-enhancing effects of other global changes and reduce the extent to which forests ameliorate climate warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT We measured longitudinal spacing and wood volume of channel-spanning logjams along 30 1-km reaches of forest streams in the Colorado Front Range, USA. Study streams flow through old-growth (〉 200 year stand age) or younger subalpine conifer forest. Evaluating correlations between the volume and longitudinal spacing of logjams in relation to channel and forest characteristics, we find that old-growth forest streams have greater instream wood loads and more jams per kilometer than streams in younger forest. Old-growth forests have a larger basal area close to the stream and correlate with larger piece diameters of instream wood. Jam volume correlates inversely with the downstream spacing for ramp and bridge pieces that can act as key pieces in jams. Most importantly, old-growth streams have shorter downstream spacing for ramp and bridge pieces (〈 20 m). Our results suggest that management of instream wood and associated stream characteristics can be focused most effectively at the reach scale, with an emphasis on preserving old-growth riparian stands along lower gradient stream reaches or mimicking the effects of old growth by manipulating the spacing of ramp and bridge pieces. Our finding that average downstream spacing between jams declines as wood load increases suggests that the most effective way to create and retain jams is to ensure abundant sources of wood recruitment, with a particular emphasis on larger pieces that are less mobile because they have at least one anchor point outside the active channel. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT Glacial bedforms’ heights, H , and volumes, V , likely preserve important information about the behaviour of former ice sheets. However, large systematic errors exist in the measurement of H and V . Three semi-automated methods to isolate drumlins from other components of the landscape (e.g., trees, hills) as portrayed by NEXTMap have recently been devised, however it is unclear which is most accurate. This paper undertakes the first quantitative comparison of such readily implementable methods, illustrating the use of statistically representative ‘synthetic landscapes’ as a diagnostic tool. From this analysis, guidelines for quantifying the 3D attributes of drumlins are proposed. Specifically, to avoid obtaining incorrect estimates caused by substantial systematic biases, interpreters should currently take three steps; declutter the DEM for estimating H but not for V , remove height data within the drumlin, then interpolate across the resultant hole to estimate a basal surface using Delaunay triangulation. Results are demonstrated through analysis of drumlins in an area in western Central Scotland. The guidance arguably represents the best current advice for subglacial bedforms in general, highlighting the need for more studies into the quality of mapped data using synthetic landscapes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The objective of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility of using a composite L2 SMOS soil moisture product for determining drought conditions by taking advantage of its spatial and temporal resolution. The work investigates the potential relationships between soil moisture anomalies and two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), both calculated on a ten-day basis. As the two drought indices can be applied to different time scales for precipitation series, the influence of time scale on the drought definition is also studied. The anomalies were calculated both for the in situ soil moisture by REMEDHUS (Soil Moisture Measurement Stations Network, Spain) and from the SMOS L2 soil moisture product. In general, in situ anomalies exhibit higher correlation coefficients for the drought indices than those of SMOS, except for the shortest time scale. As expected, the short-term remotely sensed anomalies have a high response to precipitation events. This effect may be due to the greater sensitivity of SMOS data to rainfall, as well as to the spatial averaged nature of its observations. The optimal time scale was one month for the SMOS values and ranged between 30 and 50 days for the in situ values. The use of evapotranspiration in the calculation of the indices did not improve the description of the anomalies. The relationship between indices and soil moisture conditions provides encouraging results. Indeed, this method generates preliminary but valuable insights for future satellite products. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We examine the physical constraints that must be satisfied to allow for a steady-state tropical cyclone in an isolated environment, paying particular attention to the need to replenish absolute angular momentum exactly at the rate that it is consumed and to the vanishing of the spin-up function above the frictional boundary layer. We conclude that it is unlikely that these conditions will be met simultaneously and question whether globally steady-state tropical cyclone solutions have merit. The implications for previous studies are discussed.

Description: Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P  〈 0.0001). Large mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times ( P  〈 0.0001). Among the other traits examined, species with higher latitudinal and elevational ranges were more likely to respond to climate change in some analyses, whereas hibernation, heterothermy, burrowing, nesting, and study location did not influence responses. These results indicate that some mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management.

Description: Remote estimation of river discharge from river width variations is an intriguing method for gauging rivers without conventional measurements. Entirely cloud-free imagery of an entire river reach is often rare, but partial coverage is more frequent. Discharge is estimated from spatially discontinuous imagery via construction of multiple width-discharge rating curves within a 62 km reach of the Tanana River, Alaska. The resulting discharge error is as low as 6.7% RMSE. Imagery covering 〈20% of the study reach can be used. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This paper presents the results of a data based comparative study of several hundred catchments across continental United States belonging to the MOPEX dataset to systematically explore the connection between the flood frequency curve and mean annual water balance. Mean annual water balance is expressed in terms of two similarity measures: (i) the climatic aridity index, AI , which is a measure of the competition between energy and water availability; and (ii) the baseflow index, BFI , which is a measure of total runoff partitioning into surface and subsurface components at the annual time scale. The data analyses showed that the aridity index, AI , has a first order control on the shape of the flood frequency curve (also known as the growth curve), as expressed in terms of both the mean and coefficient of variation ( C v ) of the annual maximum floods, once normalized by catchment size (i.e., specific flood discharge) While the mean annual (specific) flood discharge decreases with increasing aridity, C v increases with increasing aridity. On the other hand, the BFI was found to be a second order control on the flood frequency curve. Higher BFI , meaning higher contributions of subsurface flow to total streamflow, leads to a decrease of the mean annual (specific) flood discharge, and vice versa. The statistically significant relationship between AI and the flood frequency curve and the consistent shift of the growth curves with AI support the use of AI as a similarity measure for regionalization of flood frequency.

Description: The performance of glacio-hydrological models which simulate catchment response to climate variability depends to a large degree on the data used to force the models. The forcing data become increasingly important in high elevation, glacierised catchments where the interplay between extreme topography, climate and the cryosphere is complex. It is challenging to generate a reliable forcing dataset that captures this spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, we analyze the results of a one year field campaign focusing on air temperature and precipitation observations in the Langtang Valley in the Nepalese Himalayas. We use the observed time series to characterize both temperature lapse rates (LRs) and precipitation gradients (PGs). We study their spatial and temporal variability, and we attempt to identify possible controlling factors. We show that very clear LRs exist in the valley and that there are strong seasonal differences related to the water vapor content in the atmosphere. Results also show that the LRs are generally shallower than the commonly used environmental lapse rates. The analysis of the precipitation observations reveal that there is great variability in precipitation over short horizontal distances. A uniform valley wide PG cannot be established and several scale-dependent mechanisms may explain our observations. We complete our analysis by showing the impact of the observed LRs and PGs on the outputs of the TOPKAPI-ETH glacio-hydrological model. We conclude that LRs and PGs have a very large impact on the water balance composition and that short-term monitoring campaigns have the potential to improve model quality considerably.

Description: Controls on the fate of ~ 277 Pg of soil organic carbon (C) stored in permafrost peatland soils remain poorly understood despite the potential for a significant positive feedback to climate change. Our objective was to quantify the temperature, moisture, organic matter, and microbial controls on soil organic carbon (SOC) losses following permafrost thaw in peat soils across Alaska. We compared the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions from peat samples collected at active layer and permafrost depths when incubated aerobically and anaerobically at -5, -0.5, +4 and +20°C. Temperature had a strong, positive effect on C emissions; global warming potential (GWP) was 〉 3x larger at 20°C than at 4°C. Anaerobic conditions significantly reduced CO 2 emissions and GWP by 47% at 20°C but did not have a significant effect at -0.5°C. Net anaerobic CH 4 production over 30 days was 7.1 ± 2.8 μ g CH 4 -C gC −1 at 20°C. Cumulative CO 2 emissions were related to organic matter chemistry and best predicted by the relative abundance of polysaccharides and proteins (R 2 =0.81) in SOC. Carbon emissions (CO 2 -C + CH 4 -C) from the active layer depth peat ranged from 77% larger to not significantly different than permafrost depths and varied depending on the peat type and peat decomposition stage rather than thermal state. Potential SOC losses with warming depend not only on the magnitude of temperature increase and hydrology but also organic matter quality, permafrost history, and vegetation dynamics, which will ultimately determine net radiative forcing due to permafrost thaw. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Thermal stress affects organism performance differently depending on the ambient temperature to which they are acclimatized, which varies along latitudinal gradients. This study investigated whether differences in physiological responses to temperature are consistent with regional differences in temperature regimes for the stony coral Oculina patagonica . To resolve this question we experimentally assessed how colonies originating from four different locations characterized by 〉3°C variation in mean maximum annual temperature responded to warming from 20 to 32°C. We assessed plasticity in symbiont identity, density, and photosynthetic properties, together with changes in host tissue biomass. Results show that, without changes in the type of symbiont hosted by coral colonies, O. patagonica has limited capacity to acclimatize to future warming. We found little evidence of variation in overall thermal tolerance, or in thermal optima, in response to spatial variation in ambient temperature. Given that the invader O. patagonica is a relatively new member of the Mediterranean coral fauna our results also suggest that coral populations may need to remain isolated for a long period of time for thermal adaptation to potentially take place. Our study indicates that for O. patagonica , mortality associated with thermal stress manifests primarily through tissue breakdown under moderate but prolonged warming (which does not impair symbiont photosynthesis and, therefore, does not lead to bleaching). Consequently, projected global warming is likely to causes repeat incidents of partial and whole colony mortality and might drive a gradual range contraction of Mediterranean corals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Many physically-based hydrological/hydrogeological models used for predicting groundwater seepage areas, including topography-based index models such as TOPMODEL, rely on the Dupuit assumption. To ensure the sound use of these simplified models, knowledge of the conditions under which they provide a reasonable approximation is critical. In this study, a Dupuit solution for the seepage length in hillslope cross-sections is tested against a full-depth solution of saturated groundwater flow. In homogeneous hillslopes with horizontal impervious base and constant-slope topography, the comparison reveals that the validity of the Dupuit solution depends not only on the ratio of depth to hillslope length d/L (as might be expected), but also on the ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge K/R and on the topographic slope s . The validity of the Dupuit solution is shown to be in fact a unique function of another ratio, the ratio of depth to seepage length d/L S . For d/L S 〈 0.2, the relative difference between the two solutions is quite small (〈 14% for the wide range of parameter values tested), whereas for d/L S 〉 0.2, it increases dramatically. In practice, this criterion can be used to test the validity of Dupuit solutions. When d/L S increases beyond that cut-off, the ratio of seepage length to hillslope length L S /L given by the full-depth solution tends towards a non-zero asymptotic value. This asymptotic value is shown to be controlled by (and in many cases equal to) the parameter R/sK . Generalization of the findings to cases featuring heterogeneity, non-horizontal impervious base and variable-slope topography is discussed.

Description: Isothermal compositional flow models require coupling transient compressible flows and advective transport systems of various chemical species in subsurface porous media. Building such numerical models is quite challenging and may be subject to many sources of uncertainties because of possible incomplete representation of some geological parameters that characterize the system's processes. Advanced data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), can be used to calibrate these models by incorporating available data. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating reservoir permeability using information about phase pressure as well as the chemical properties of fluid components. We carry out state-parameter estimation experiments using joint and dual updating schemes in the context of the EnKF with a two-dimensional single-phase compositional flow model (CFM). Quantitative and statistical analyses are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the assimilation schemes. Our results indicate that including chemical composition data significantly enhances the accuracy of the permeability estimates. In addition, composition data provide more information to estimate system states and parameters than do standard pressure data. The dual state-parameter estimation scheme provides about 10% more accurate permeability estimates on average than the joint scheme when implemented with the same ensemble members, at the cost of twice more forward model integrations. At similar computational cost, the dual approach becomes only beneficial after using large enough ensembles.

Description: Groundwater-fed irrigation has been shown to deplete groundwater storage, decrease surface water runoff and increase evapotranspiration. Here we simulate soil moisture dependent groundwater-fed irrigation with an integrated hydrologic model. This allows for direct consideration of feedbacks between irrigation demand and groundwater depth. Special attention is paid to system dynamics in order to characterized spatial variability in irrigation demand and response to increased irrigation stress. A total of 80 years of simulation are completed for the Little Washita Basin in Southwestern Oklahoma, USA spanning a range of agricultural development scenarios and management practices. Results show regionally aggregated irrigation impacts consistent with other studies. However, here a spectral analysis reveals that groundwater-fed irrigation is also shown to amplify the annual streamflow cycle while dampening longer-term cyclical behavior with increased irrigation during climatological dry periods. Feedbacks between the managed and natural system are clearly observed with respect to both irrigation demand and utilization when water table depths are within a critical range. Although the model domain is heterogeneous with respect to both surface and subsurface parameters, relationships between irrigation demand, water table depth and irrigation utilization are consistent across space and between scenarios. Still, significant local heterogeneities are observed both with respect to transient behavior and response to stress. Spatial analysis of transient behavior shows that farms with groundwater depths within a critical depth range are most sensitive to management changes. Differences in behavior highlight the importance of groundwater's role in system dynamics in addition to water availability.

Description: Including positive feedbacks in hydrological models has recently been shown to result in complex behavior with multiple steady states. When a large disturbance, say a major drought, is simulated within such models the hydrology changes. Once the disturbance ends the hydrology does not return to that prior to the disturbance, but rather, persists within an alternate state. These multiple steady states (henceforth attractors ) exist for a single model parameterization and cause the system to have a finite resilience to such transient disturbances. A limitation of past hydrological resilience studies is that multiple attractors have been identified using mean annual or mean monthly forcing. Considering that most hydrological fluxes are subject to significant forcing stochasticity and do not operate at such large time scales, it remains an open question whether multiple hydrological attractors can exist when a catchment is subject to stochastic daily forcing. This question is the focus of this paper and it needs to be addressed prior to searching for multiple hydrological attractors in the field. To investigate this, a previously developed semi-distributed hill-slope ecohydrological model was adopted which exhibited multiple steady states under average monthly climate forcing. In this paper, the ecohydrological model was used to explore if feedbacks between the vegetation and a saline water table result in two attractors existing under daily stochastic forcing. The attractors and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified using a new limit cycle continuation technique that up-scaled climate forcing from daily to monthly (model and limit cycle code is freely available). The method was used to determine the values of saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity at which multiple attractors exist. These estimates were then assessed against time-integration estimates, which they agreed with. Overall, multiple attractors where found to exist under stochastic daily forcing. However, changing the climate forcing from monthly to daily did significantly reduce the parameter range over which two attractors existed. This suggests fewer catchments may have multiple attractors than previously considered.

Description: The companion paper showed that multiple steady state groundwater levels can exist within a hill-slope Boussinesq-vegetation model under daily stochastic forcing. Using a numerical limit-cycle continuation algorithm, the steady states (henceforth attractors ) and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified at a range of saturated lateral conductivity values, . This paper investigates if stochastic daily forcing can switch the catchment between both of the attractors. That is, an attractor may exist under average forcing conditions but can stochastic forcing switch the catchment into and out of each of the attractor basins?; i.e. making the attractor emerge . This was undertaken using the model of the companion paper and by completing daily time-integration simulations at six values of the saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity, ; three having two attractors and three having only a deep water table attractor. By graphically analyzing the simulations, and comparing against simulations from a model modified to have only one attractor, multiple attractors were found to emerge under stochastic daily forcing. However, the emergence of attractors was significantly more subtle and complex than that suggested by the companion paper. That is, an attractor may exist but never emerge; both attractors may exist and both may emerge but identifying the switching between attractors was often ambiguous; and only one attractor may exist and but a second temporary attractor may exist and emerge during periods of high precipitation. This subtle and complex emergence of attractors was explained using continuation analysis of the climate forcing rate, and not a model parameter such as . It showed that the temporary attractor existed over a large range of values and this suggests that more catchments may have multiple attractors than suggested by the companion paper. By combining this continuation analysis with the time-integration simulations, hydrological signatures indicative of a switch of multiple attractors were proposed. These signatures may provide a means for identifying actual catchments that have switched between multiple attractors.

Description: ABSTRACT A large-time analytical solution is proposed for the spatial variance and coefficient of variation of the depth-averaged concentration due to instantaneous, cross-sectionally uniform solute sources in pseudo-rectangular open channel flows. The mathematical approach is based on the use of the Green functions and on the Fourier decomposition of the depth-averaged velocities, coupled with the method of the images. The variance spatial trend is characterized by a minimum at the center of the mass and two mobile, decaying symmetrical peaks which, at very large times, are located at the inflexion points of the average Gaussian distribution. The coefficient of variation, which provides an estimate of the expected percentage deviation of the depth-averaged point concentrations about the section-average, exhibits a minimum at the center which decays like t -1 and only depends on the river diffusive time-scale. The defect of cross-sectional mixing quickly increases with the distance from the center, and almost linearly at large times. Accurate numerical Lagrangian simulations were performed to validate the analytical results in pre-asymptotic and asymptotic conditions, referring to a particularly representative sample case for which cross-sectional depth and velocity measurements were known from a field survey. In addition, in order to discuss the practical usefulness of computing large-time concentration spatial moments in river flows, and resorting to directly measured input data, the order of magnitude of section-averaged concentrations and corresponding coefficients of variation was estimated in field conditions and for hypothetical contamination scenarios, considering a unit normalized mass impulsively injected across the transverse section of 81 U.S. rivers.

Description: The Late Pleistocene and Holocene glacial and postglacial sediments of the Baltic Sea basin are conventionally classified into units according to the so-called Baltic Sea stages: Baltic Ice Lake, Yoldia Sea, Ancylus Lake and Litorina Sea. The Baltic Sea stages have been identified in offshore sediment cores by fundamentally different criteria, precluding detailed comparisons of the sediment units amongst different sea areas and studies. Here, long sediment cores and reflection seismic and pinger sub-bottom profiles were studied from an offshore area in the Gulf of Finland, northern Baltic Sea. The strata are divided on the basis of sedimentological criteria into three allostratigraphical formations with subordinate allostratigraphical members and lithostratigraphical formations, following the combined allostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical (CUAL) approach. Sedimentological features are recommended as the primary stratigraphical classification criteria because they do not require the palaeoenvironmental inferences of salinity and water level that are inherent in the conventional classification practice. The presented stratigraphical division is proposed as a flexible template for future stratigraphical work on the Baltic Sea basin, whereby lower-rank allounits and lithounits can be included and removed locally, while the alloformations will remain at the highest hierarchical level and guarantee regional correlatability. The stratigraphical division is compatible with international guidelines, facilitating communication to the wider scientific community and comparison with other similar basins.

Description: Despite extensive study and debate regarding the significance of turbate (also known as ‘rotational’) microstructures in glacially deformed sediments, characteristics regarding the dimensions of these features remain unresolved. This study presents the first explicitly quantitative measurement and analysis of turbate microstructure dimensions, and their relation to till texture through thin section analysis. Samples were taken from coarse-resolution horizontal and vertical transects of a macroscopically homogenous subglacial till, with subset areas of each thin section (30 mm 2 ) analysed. The frequency and apparent a -axes and b- axes of both coreless and cored turbate structures (and their corestones) were measured, and simple univariate statistical methods used to establish the (in-)variability of these dimensions through the till profile. Summarizing findings, (i) the dimensions of both cored and coreless turbate populations display log-normal distributions when all measurements are analysed together, although not all individual sample populations possess these same distributions; (ii) turbate dimension populations are inconsistent within a sample block, precluding evaluation of turbate variability through a profile from single thin sections; (iii) analysis of turbate morphology and variability provisionally indicate that the three-dimensional structure of turbates are likely to be cylindrical or flared, while weak relationships are also observed amongst till texture, turbate dimensions and frequency.