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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-07-10
    Description: Habitat degradation not only disrupts habitat-forming species, but alters the sensory landscape within which most species must balance behavioural activities against predation risk. Rapidly developing a cautious behavioural phenotype, a condition known as neophobia, is advantageous when entering a novel risky habitat. Many aquatic organisms rely on damage-released conspecific cues (i.e. alarm cues) as an indicator of impending danger and use them to assess general risk and develop neophobia. This study tested whether settlement-stage damselfish associated with degraded coral reef habitats were able to use alarm cues as an indicator of risk and, in turn, develop a neophobic response at the end of their larval phase. Our results indicate that fish in live coral habitats that were exposed to alarm cues developed neophobia, and, in situ , were found to be more cautious, more closely associated with their coral shelters and survived four-times better than non-neophobic control fish. In contrast, fish that settled onto degraded coral habitats did not exhibit neophobia and consequently suffered much greater mortality on the reef, regardless of their history of exposure to alarm cues. Our results show that habitat degradation alters the efficacy of alarm cues with phenotypic and survival consequences for newly settled recruits.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: Three storm-scale ensemble prediction models (AROME-EPS, COSMO-DE-EPS, and MOGREPS-UK) were combined over Western Europe to create two convection-allowing, multi-model ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) with the goal of improving ensemble spread-skill relationships and probabilistic forecasting ability. A shared, uniform grid of _2.2 km resolution was used, containing two regions where model domains overlapped (AROME-EPS/COSMODE-EPS and AROME-EPS/MOGREPS-UK).Verification was conducted over a fivemonth period spanning two years using near-surface observations of wind, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. Bias correction was also applied to each model in order to remove systematic error and to better assess the added value of the multi-model ensembles. Analyses of EPS errors and ensemble scores are presented, including comparisons between individual EPS and multi-model scores. Verification results show that the multi-model ensembles exhibit generally lower RMSE, increased spread, and improved ROC, ROCA, and Brier scores than the individual EPSs. In addition, a case study was selected to highlight discrepancies in precipitation frequency bias between the AROME-EPS and COSMODE-EPS models, attributable to differences in distribution and intensity of precipitation. When combined as a multi-model EPS, the sixhour precipitation accumulation forecast for this case study matched the observations better than the individual EPS forecasts. Together, these results highlight the potential advantage of using multiple models with differing dynamics and physics parameterizations when developing a convection-allowing EPS.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: The impact of assimilating lower–tropospheric lidar temperature profiles into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was investigated. The profiles were measured with the Temperature Rotational Raman Lidar (TRRL) of the University of Hohenheim on 24 April 2013. The day showed the development of a typical daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL) with no optically thick clouds. The Weather Research and Forecasting model was operated with 57 vertical levels covering Central Europe with 3 km horizontal resolution. Three different experiments were carried out with a rapid update cycle with hourly three–dimensional variational data assimilation. The impact run (ALL_DA) was performed with the assimilation of conventional data and the additional assimilation of TRRL profiles between 0900 and 1800 UTC in a height range from about 500 m to 3000 m above ground level with a vertical resolution of about 100 m. In CONV_DA and NO_DA, only conventional data and no data were assimilated, respectively. To consider the representativeness of the TRRL profiles, an observation error of 0.7 K was used for all heights. The assimilation was performed using the radiosonde operator. The TRRL data assimilation corrected the temperature profiles towards the lidar data. In the mean, the boundary layer height was improved by 60 m in ALL_DA compared to the TRRL data and the temperature gradient in the entrainment layer by 0.19 K (100 m) − 1 . While ALL_DA showed a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.6 K compared to the TRRL data, the RMSE of CONV_DA was twice as large. Compared to data from radiosondes launched at the TRRL site, ALL_DA showed a significantly smaller RMSE than CONV_DA in two out of four times radiosonde data were available. We conclude that the assimilation of TRRL data has great potential to close the critical gap of missing temperature observations in the lower troposphere.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models Stephen E. L. Howell, Frédéric Laliberté, Ron Kwok, Chris Derksen, and Joshua King The Cryosphere, 10, 1463-1475, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1463-2016, 2016 The Canadian Ice Service record of observed landfast ice and snow thickness represents one of the longest in the Arctic that spans over 5 decades. We analyze this record to report on long-term trends and variability of ice and snow thickness within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Results indicate a thinning of ice at several sites in the CAA. State-of-the-art climate models still have difficultly capturing observed ice thickness values in the CAA and should be used with caution.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: Coastal dynamics and submarine permafrost in shallow water of the central Laptev Sea, East Siberia Pier Paul Overduin, Sebastian Wetterich, Frank Günther, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, Guido Grosse, Lutz Schirrmeister, Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten, and Aleksandr Makarov The Cryosphere, 10, 1449-1462, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1449-2016, 2016 How fast does permafrost warm up and thaw after it is covered by the sea? Ice-rich permafrost in the Laptev Sea, Siberia, is rapidly eroded by warm air and waves. We used a floating electrical technique to measure the depth of permafrost thaw below the sea, and compared it to 60 years of coastline retreat and permafrost depths from drilling 30 years ago. Thaw is rapid right after flooding of the land and slows over time. The depth of permafrost is related to how fast the coast retreats.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: Age of the Mt. Ortles ice cores, the Tyrolean Iceman and glaciation of the highest summit of South Tyrol since the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum Paolo Gabrielli, Carlo Barbante, Giuliano Bertagna, Michele Bertó, Daniel Binder, Alberto Carton, Luca Carturan, Federico Cazorzi, Giulio Cozzi, Giancarlo Dalla Fontana, Mary Davis, Fabrizio De Blasi, Roberto Dinale, Gianfranco Dragà, Giuliano Dreossi, Daniela Festi, Massimo Frezzotti, Jacopo Gabrieli, Stephan Galos, Patrick Ginot, Petra Heidenwolf, Theo M. Jenk, Natalie Kehrwald, Donald Kenny, Olivier Magand, Volkmar Mair, Vladimir Mikhalenko, Ping Nan Lin, Klaus Oeggl, Gianni Piffer, Mirko Rinaldi, Ulrich Schotterer, Margit Schwikowski, Roberto Seppi, Andrea Spolaor, Barbara Stenni, Davdi Tonidandel, CChiara Uglietti, Victor Zagorodnov, Thomas Zanoner, and Piero Zennaro The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-159,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) New ice cores were extracted from Alto dell'Ortles, the highest glacier of South Tyrol in the Italian Alps, to check whether prehistoric ice, that is coeval to the famous 5200 years old Tyrolean Iceman, is still preserved in this region. Dating of the ice cores confirms the hypothesis and indicates that the drilling site was glaciated since the end of the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum (7000 BP). We also infer that an unprecedented acceleration of the glacier flow has just recently begun.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: Combined diurnal variations of discharge and hydrochemistry of the Isunnguata Sermia outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet give in sight on sub glacial conditions Joseph Graly, Joel Harrington, and Neil Humphrey The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-137,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) At a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet in West Greenland, we find that the chemical solutes is the emerging subglacial waters are out of phase with water discharge and can spike in concentration during waning flow. This suggests that the subglacial waters are spreading out across a large area of the glacial bed throughout the day, stimulating chemical weathering beyond the major water distribution channels.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-07-14
    Description: Increased nitrate and decreased δ 15 N–NO 3 − in the Greenland Arctic after 1940 attributed to North American oil burning Nathan J. Chellman, Meredith G. Hastings, and Joseph R. McConnell The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-163,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This manuscript analyzes the changing sources of nitrate deposition to Greenland since 1760 CE using a dataset consisting of sub-seasonally resolved nitrogen isotopes of nitrate and source tracers. Correlations amongst ion concentration, source tracers, and the δ 15 N–NO 3 − provide evidence of the impact of biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion emissions of nitrogen oxides and suggest that oil combustion is the likely driver of increased nitrate concentration in Greenland ice since 1940 CE.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-07-14
    Description: Inversion of geothermal heat flux in a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model Hongyu Zhu, Noemi Petra, Georg Stadler, Tobin Isaac, Thomas J. R. Hughes, and Omar Ghattas The Cryosphere, 10, 1477-1494, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1477-2016, 2016 We study how well the basal geothermal heat flux can be inferred from surface velocity observations using a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model. The prospects and limitations of this inversion is studied in two and three dimensional model problems. We also argue that a one-way coupled approach for the adjoint equations motivated by staggered solvers for forward multiphysics problems can lead to an incorrect gradient and premature termination of the optimization iteration.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-07-14
    Description: Increased nitrate and decreased δ 15 N–NO 3 − in the Greenland Arctic after 1940 attributed to North American oil burning Nathan J. Chellman, Meredith G. Hastings, and Joseph R. McConnell The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-163,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This manuscript analyzes the changing sources of nitrate deposition to Greenland since 1760 CE using a dataset consisting of sub-seasonally resolved nitrogen isotopes of nitrate and source tracers. Correlations amongst ion concentration, source tracers, and the δ 15 N–NO 3 − provide evidence of the impact of biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion emissions of nitrogen oxides and suggest that oil combustion is the likely driver of increased nitrate concentration in Greenland ice since 1940 CE.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: ABSTRACT Delta progradation and sediment flux of the Pearl River Delta (PRD), southern China, during the Holocene are presented based on analyses of borehole data on the delta plain. Results indicate that the delta prograded into the drowned valley because of early Holocene inundation from 9 to 6 cal ka BP, as sea-level rise decelerated. The sea level reached its present level at about 6 cal ka BP and, as a consequence, a large portion of the drowned valley was covered by the estuary, with more than 160 rock islands and platforms. The scattered landmasses promoted active deposition and acted as deposition nuclei during deltaic evolution. Consequently, apart from exhibiting a general tendency towards progression, PRD development occurred less regularly over time and space because of deposition around island boundaries. During the last 2 ka, mainly because of significantly increased human activities, which have trapped sediments in the encircled tidal flats along the front of delta plains, the shoreline has advanced rapidly. Estimated sediment fluxes for the three periods (9–6, 6–2 and 2–0 cal ka BP), based on the sediment volume analysis, were 17–25, 22–30 and 44–58 million t a −1 , respectively.
    Print ISSN: 0267-8179
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1417
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change across China Xiaoqing Peng, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang, Kang Wang, Bin Cao, Xinyue Zhong, Hang Su, and Cuicui Mu The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-129,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Previous researches paid more attention on the permafrost, e.g. active layer thickness, soil temperature, permafrost area extent, and associated with permafrost degradation leading other changes. However, seasonally frozen ground, vast area extent, did not focus by so much attention. Here, we combined more than 800 observation station data and gridded data to investigate soil freeze depth across China. The results indicate that soil freeze depth increase with climate warming.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Watershed managers are challenged by the need for predictive temperature models with sufficient accuracy and geographic breadth for practical use. We described thermal regimes of New England rivers and streams based on a reduced set of metrics for the May to September growing season (July or August median temperature, diurnal rate of change, and magnitude and timing of growing season maximum) chosen through principal component analysis of 78 candidate metrics. We then developed and assessed spatial statistical models for each of these metrics, incorporating spatial autocorrelation based on both distance along the flow network and Euclidean distance between points. Calculation of spatial autocorrelation based on travel or retention time in place of network distance yielded tighter-fitting Torgegrams with less scatter but did not improve overall model prediction accuracy. We predicted monthly median July or August stream temperatures as a function of median air temperature, estimated urban heat island effect, shaded solar radiation, main channel slope, watershed storage (percent lake and wetland area), percent coarse-grained surficial deposits, and presence or maximum depth of a lake immediately upstream, with an overall root-mean-square prediction error of 1.4 and 1.5 ○ C, respectively. Growing season maximum water temperature varied as a function of air temperature, local channel slope, shaded August solar radiation, imperviousness, and watershed storage. Predictive models for July or August daily range, maximum daily rate of change, and timing of growing season maximum were statistically significant but explained a much lower proportion of variance than the above models (5-14% of total) . This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Spontaneous counter-current imbibition into a finite porous medium is an important physical mechanism for many applications, included but not limited to irrigation, CO 2 storage and oil recovery. Symmetry considerations that are often valid in fractured porous media allow us to study the process in a one-dimensional domain. In 1D, the onset of imbibition can be captured by self-similar solutions and the imbibed volume scales with . At later times, the imbibition rate decreases and the finite size of the medium has to be taken into account. This requires numerical solutions. Here, we present a new approach to approximate the whole imbibition process semi-analytically. While the onset is captured by a semi-analytical solution. We also provide an a priori estimate of the time until which the imbibed volume scales with . This time is significantly longer than the time it takes until the imbibition front reaches the model boundary. The remainder of the imbibition process is obtained from a self-similarity solution. We test our approach against numerical solutions that employ parametrizations relevant for oil recovery and CO 2 sequestration. We show that this concept improves common first order approaches that heavily underestimate early-time behaviour and note that it can be readily included into dual porosity models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Slight glacier reduction over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau despite significant recent warming Yetang Wang, Shugui Hou, Wenling An, Hongxi Pang, and Yaping Liu The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-165,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study further confirms "Pamir–Karakoram–Western-Kunlun-Mountain (northwestern Tibetan Plateau) Glacier Anomaly". Slight glacier reduction over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau may result from more accumulation from increased precipitation in winter which to great extent protects it from mass reductions under climate warming during 1961–2000. Warming slowdown since 2000 happening at this region may further mitigate glacier mass reduction.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change across China Xiaoqing Peng, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang, Kang Wang, Bin Cao, Xinyue Zhong, Hang Su, and Cuicui Mu The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-129,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Previous researches paid more attention on the permafrost, e.g. active layer thickness, soil temperature, permafrost area extent, and associated with permafrost degradation leading other changes. However, seasonally frozen ground, vast area extent, did not focus by so much attention. Here, we combined more than 800 observation station data and gridded data to investigate soil freeze depth across China. The results indicate that soil freeze depth increase with climate warming.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Water extraction for anthropogenic use has become a major flux in the hydrological cycle. With increasing demand for water and challenges supplying it in the face of climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand connections between human populations, climate, water extraction, water use, and its impacts. To understand these connections, we collected and analyzed stable isotopic ratios of more than 800 urban tap water samples in a series of semiannual water surveys (spring and fall, 2013 to 2015) across the Salt Lake Valley (SLV) of northern Utah. Consistent with previous work, we found that mean tap water had a lower 2 H and 18 O concentration than local precipitation, highlighting the importance of nearby montane winter precipitation as source water for the region. However, we observed strong and structured spatiotemporal variation in tap water isotopic compositions across the region which we attribute to complex distribution systems, varying water management practices and multiple sources used across the valley. Water from different sources was not used uniformly throughout the area and we identified significant correlation between water source and demographic parameters including population and income. Isotopic mass balance indicated significant inter- and intra-annual variability in water losses within the distribution network due to evaporation from surface water resources supplying the SLV. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of isotopes as an indicator of water management strategies and climate impacts within regional urban water systems, with potential utility for monitoring, regulation, forensic and a range of water resource research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2016-07-16
    Description: This paper reports on a first attempt of using the virtual velocity approach to assess sediment mobility and transport in two wide and complex gravel-bed rivers of northern Italy. Displacement length and virtual velocity of spray-painted tracers were measured in the field. Also, the thickness of the sediment active layer during floods was measured using scour chains and post-flood morphological changes as documented by repeated survey of channel cross-sections. The effects of 8 and 7 floods were studied on the Tagliamento and Brenta rivers, where 259 and 277 spray-painted areas were surveyed, respectively. In the Tagliamento Rivers 36 % of the spray-painted areas experienced partial transport, whereas in the Brenta this accounted for 20%. Full removal/gravel deposition was whereas observed on 37 % and 26 % of these areas on the Tagliamento and Brenta rivers, respectively. The mean displacement length of particles, the thickness of the active layer and the extent of partial transport are well correlated with the dimensionless shear stress. The virtual velocity approach allowed calculation of bed material transport over a wide range of flood magnitudes. Annual coarse sediment transport was calculated up to 150 for the Tagliamento, and 30 × 10 3  m 3  yr -1 for the Brenta. The outcomes of this work highlight the relevance of partial transport condition, as it could represent more than 70% of the total bed material transported during low-magnitude floods, and up to 40% for near-bankfull events. Results confirm that bed material load tends to be overestimated by traditional formulas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0197-9337
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-9837
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2016-07-16
    Description: Effects of Multiple Doppler Radar data assimilation on the numerical simulation of a Flash Flood Event during the HyMeX campaign Ida Maiello, Sabrina Gentile, Rossella Ferretti, Luca Baldini, Nicoletta Roberto, Errico Picciotti, Pier Paolo Alberoni, and Frank S. Marzano Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-320,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) An analysis to evaluate the impact of assimilating multiple radar data with a three dimensional variational (3D-Var) system on a heavy precipitation event is presented. The main goal is to establish a general methodology to quantitatively assess the performance of flash-flood numerical weather prediction at mesoscale. In this respect, during the first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) campaign several Intensive Observing Periods (IOPs) were launched and nine occurred in Italy. Among them IOP4 is chosen for this study because of its low predictability. This event hit central Italy on 14 September 2012 producing heavy precipitation and causing several damages. Data taken from three C-band radars running operationally during the event are assimilated to improve high resolution initial conditions. In order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation procedure at different horizontal resolution and to assess the impact of assimilating multiple radars data, several experiments using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. Finally, the statistical indexes as accuracy, equitable threat score, false alarm ratio and frequency bias are used to objectively compare the experiments, using rain gauges data as benchmark.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2016-07-16
    Description: Model-based study of the role of rainfall and land use–land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of Niger red floods in Niamey between 1953 and 2012 Claire Casse, Marielle Gosset, Théo Vischel, Guillaume Quantin, and Bachir Alkali Tanimoun Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2841-2859, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2841-2016, 2016 Since 1950, the Niger River basin has overcome drastic changes. In Niamey city, the highest river levels and the longest flooded period ever recorded occurred in 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2013, with heavy casualties and property damage. The reasons for these changes, and the relative role of climate versus Land Use Land Cover changes are still debated and are investigated in this paper using observations and modelling. We conclude on the successive role of cover and then rainfall variability.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-2116
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2016-07-16
    Description: Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration using modelled daily shortwave radiation for remote sensing applications: an Artificial Neural Network approach Loise Wandera, Kaninska Mallick, Gerard Kiely, Olivier Roupsard, Matthias Peichl, and Vicenzo Magliulo Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-344,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration (ET i to ET d ) is one of the central challenge in regional vegetation water use mapping using polar orbiting satellites. Here we developed a robust ET i upscaling for global studies using the ratio between daily and instantaneous global radiation (R Sd /R Si ). Using data from 126 FLUXNET tower sites this study demonstrated R Sd /R si ratio to be the most robust factor explaining ET d /ET i variability across variable sky conditions and multiple biomes.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-2116
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2016-07-16
    Description: As the prospect for more frequent and severe extreme weather events gains scientific support, many nations are evaluating mitigation and adaptation options. Insurance and home retrofits could reduce household welfare losses due to flood events. Yet, even after disasters, households often fail to take risk mitigation actions. This paper presents the first randomized field experiment that tests the effect of information provision on household uptake of flood insurance and home retrofits. A sample of 364 flood-prone households in Bangkok was randomly split into treatment and control groups. The treatment group received practical details on home retrofits and flood insurance as well as social information regarding the insurance purchase decisions of peers. Results indicate that the information intervention increased insurance purchases by about five percentage points, while no effect was detected for home retrofits. This effect is nearly equal to the increase in uptake that the national insurance program in Thailand has achieved through all other means since its establishment in 2012. If scaled up to include all uninsured, flood-prone households in Bangkok, nearly 70,000 additional households could be insured. The results suggest that well-designed information interventions could increase uptake of flood insurance, without additional premium subsidies or mandates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2016-07-16
    Description: The need to understand potential climate impacts and feedbacks in Arctic regions has prompted recent interest in modeling of permafrost dynamics in a warming climate. A new fine-scale integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology modeling capability is described and demonstrated in proof-of-concept simulations. The new modeling capability combines a surface energy balance model with recently developed three-dimensional subsurface thermal hydrology models and new models for nonisothermal surface water flows and snow distribution in the microtopography. Surface water flows are modeled using the diffusion wave equation extended to include energy transport and phase change of ponded water. Variation of snow depth in the microtopography, physically the result of wind scour, is modeled phenomenologically with a diffusion wave equation. The multiple surface and subsurface processes are implemented by leveraging highly parallel community software. Fully integrated thermal hydrology simulations on the tilted open book catchment, an important test case for integrated surface/subsurface flow modeling, are presented. Fine-scale 100-year projections of the integrated permafrost thermal hydrological system on an ice wedge polygon at Barrow Alaska in a warming climate are also presented. These simulations demonstrate the feasibility of microtopography-resolving, process-rich simulations as a tool to help understand possible future evolution of the carbon-rich Arctic tundra in a warming climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2016-07-19
    Description: Characteristics of an avalanche-feeding and partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt. Tomor, Tian Shan, China Puyu Wang, Zhongqin Li, and Huilin Li The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-138,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) A cirque-valley glacier with complex topography and partially debris-covered area was investigated in the Mt. Tomor, Tian Shan. The glacier is analogous to temperate one on movement and temperature regimes. The strongest ablation and most significant terminus retreat and area reduction occurred at the end of last century and the beginning of this century. Since inhibition of debris cover to melting, it is expected to keep shrinkage in the coming decades, but the terminus retreat is to be slower.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2016-07-19
    Description: Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding Agnieszka Indiana Olbert, Joanne Comer, Stephen Nash, and Michael Hartnett Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-238,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A novel nested flood model (MSN_Flood) is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding in order to critically examine the model's capability to forecast evolution of urban inundation. The model demonstrates high accuracy of outputs without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. MSN_Flood provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2016-07-19
    Description: Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding Agnieszka Indiana Olbert, Joanne Comer, Stephen Nash, and Michael Hartnett Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-238,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A novel nested flood model (MSN_Flood) is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding in order to critically examine the model's capability to forecast evolution of urban inundation. The model demonstrates high accuracy of outputs without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. MSN_Flood provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2016-07-20
    Description: On the propagation of diel signals in river networks using analytic solutions of flow equations Morgan Fonley, Ricardo Mantilla, Scott J. Small, and Rodica Curtu Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2899-2912, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2899-2016, 2016 We design and implement a theoretical experiment to show that, under low-flow conditions, observed streamflow discrepancies between early and late summer can be attributed to different flow velocities in the river network. By developing an analytic solution to represent flow along a given river network, we emphasize the dependence of streamflow amplitude and time delay on the geomorphology of the network. We also simulate using a realistic river network to highlight the effects of scale.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2016-07-20
    Description: On the propagation of diel signals in river networks using analytic solutions of flow equations Morgan Fonley, Ricardo Mantilla, Scott J. Small, and Rodica Curtu Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2899-2912, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2899-2016, 2016 We design and implement a theoretical experiment to show that, under low-flow conditions, observed streamflow discrepancies between early and late summer can be attributed to different flow velocities in the river network. By developing an analytic solution to represent flow along a given river network, we emphasize the dependence of streamflow amplitude and time delay on the geomorphology of the network. We also simulate using a realistic river network to highlight the effects of scale.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-2116
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2016-07-20
    Description: Simultaneous calibration of hydrological models in geographical space András Bárdossy, Yingchun Huang, and Thorsten Wagener Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2913-2928, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2913-2016, 2016 This paper explores the simultaneous calibration method to transfer model parameters from gauged to ungauged catchments. It is hypothesized that the model parameters can be separated into two categories: one reflecting the dynamic behavior and the other representing the long-term water balance. The results of three numerical experiments indicate that a good parameter transfer to ungauged catchments can be achieved through simultaneous calibration of models for a number of catchments.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: ABSTRACT Abstract: The level of storminess in Ireland during the winter of 2013/2014 was exceptional, the effects of which cost the Irish state in excess of €260 Million in infrastructure repair and insurance claims. In Ireland, a lack of coastal process data from monitoring programmes means that the response of protective barrier coasts to such events remains largely un-investigated. This study addresses this issue through an examination of the geomorphic impacts of recent storms, including those that occurred during the winter 2013/2014, on a breached barrier on the southwest coast of Ireland. Data from a two-year terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) monitoring campaign shows that the W2013/2014 events caused a major (〉50 m) dune recession at Rossbehy, Co. Kerry. Results from a simple linear regression analysis indicate storm duration plays an important role in the removal of foredunes at the study site. Given the fact that the frequency of intense storms in the vicinity of Ireland is forecast increase within the next century, a scientific understanding of barrier response to such events is critical to inform sound management practices. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0197-9337
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-9837
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: Despite covering only approximately 138,000 km 2 , mangroves are globally important carbon sinks with carbon density values 3-4 times that of terrestrial forests. A key challenge in evaluating the carbon benefits from mangrove forest conservation is the lack of rigorous spatially resolved estimates of mangrove sediment carbon stocks; most mangrove carbon is stored belowground. Previous work has focused on detailed estimations of carbon stores over relatively small areas, which has obvious limitations in terms of generality and scope of application. Most studies have focused only on quantifying the top 1m of belowground carbon (BGC). Carbon stored at depths beyond 1m, and the effects of mangrove species, location and environmental context on these stores, is poorly studied. This study investigated these variables at two sites (Gazi and Vanga in the south of Kenya) and used the data to produce a country-specific BGC predictive model for Kenya and map BGC store estimates throughout Kenya at spatial scales relevant for climate change research, forest management and REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). The results revealed that mangrove species was the most reliable predictor of BGC; Rhizophora muronata had the highest mean BGC with 1485.5t C ha −1 . Applying the species-based predictive model to a base map of species distribution in Kenya for the year 2010 with a 2.5m 2 resolution, produced an estimate of 69.41 Mt C (± 9.15 95% C.I.) for BGC in Kenyan mangroves. When applied to a 1992 mangrove distribution map, the BGC estimate was 75.65 Mt C (± 12.21 95% C.I.); an 8.3% loss in BGC stores between 1992 and 2010 in Kenya. The country level mangrove map provides a valuable tool for assessing carbon stocks and visualising the distribution of BGC. Estimates at the 2.5m 2 resolution provide sufficient detail for highlighting and prioritising areas for mangrove conservation and restoration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: Looking beyond general metrics for model comparison – lessons from an international model intercomparison study Tanja de Boer-Euser, Laurène Bouaziz, Jan De Niel, Claudia Brauer, Benjamin Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Benjamin Grelier, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Hubert Savenije, Guillaume Thirel, and Patrick Willems Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-339,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this study the rainfall–runoff models of eight international research groups were compared for a set of subcatchments of the Meuse basin to investigate the influence of certain model components on the modelled discharge. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics, clear differences could be observed for specific events. The differences during drier conditions could indeed be linked back to differences in model structures.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: Comparison and validation of global and regional ocean forecasting systems for the South China Sea Xueming Zhu, Hui Wang, Guimei Liu, Charly Régnier, Xiaodi Kuang, Dakui Wang, Shihe Ren, Zhiyou Jing, and Marie Drévillon Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1639-1655, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1639-2016, 2016 This paper examined the performances of two operational ocean forecasting systems, Mercator Océan in France and SCSOFS in China, based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012. The comparison and validation are focused on the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities in the South China Sea. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for both systems to improve their performances in the near future.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: Oceanic and atmospheric global numerical models represent explicitly the large-scale dynamics while the smaller-scale processes are not resolved so that their effects in the large-scale dynamics are included through subgrid-scale parameterizations. These parameterizations represent small-scale effects as a function of the resolved variables. In this work, data assimilation principles are used not only to estimate the parameters of subgrid-scale parameterizations but also to uncover the functional dependencies of subgrid-scale processes as a function of large-scale variables. Two data assimilation methods based on the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) are evaluated in the two-scale Lorenz ’96 system scenario. The first method is an online estimation that uses the ETKF with an augmented space state composed of the model large-scale variables and a set of unknown global parameters from the parameterization. The second method is an offline estimation that uses the ETKF to estimate an augmented space state composed of the large-scale variables and by a space dependent model error term. Then a polynomial regression is used to fit the estimated model error as a function of the large-scale model variables in order to develop a parameterization of small-scale dynamics. The online estimation shows a good performance when the parameter-state relationship is assumed to be quadratic polynomial function. The offline estimation captures better some of the highly nonlinear functional dependencies found in the subgrid-scale processes. The nonlinear and nonlocal dependence found in an experiment with shear-generated small-scale dynamics is also recovered by the offline estimation method. Therefore, the combination of these two methods could be a useful tool for the estimation of the functional form of subgrid-scale parameterizations.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: Large-eddy simulation of a nocturnal stratocumulus-topped boundary layer in a continental mid-latitude environment has been performed to examine the sensitivity of the cloud to a number of different environmental parameters. The simulations showed that the stratocumulus cloud was strongly affected by the presence of an overlying free tropospheric cirrus cloud (FTC), in agreement with previous studies of marine nighttime stratocumulus. When introducing an FTC with an optical thickness of 2, stratocumulus liquid water path decreased by 30%. Enhancing the optical thickness of the FTC to 8 further decreased the liquid water path by almost 10%. The presence of an FTC decreased the cloud-top radiative cooling which decreased the turbulent mixing in the boundary layer so that the liquid water content and cloud depth were reduced. The sensitivity of the stratocumulus cloud to an overlying FTC was found to be affected by the moisture content in the free troposphere. When a clear positive or negative moisture gradient above the inversion was imposed, and an overlying FTC with an optical thickness of 8 was introduced, the stratocumulus cloud LWP decreased by more than 40%. Furthermore, the effect of changes in free tropospheric moisture content and an overlying FTC on the stratocumulus cloud properties was found to be non-linear, the combined response was in general weaker than the two responses added together. The modeled response to changes in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations was found to be non-significant, unless the CCN concentrations were so low that drizzle was induced (r 50 cm −3 ).
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: ABSTRACT The specification of model parameters in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has great influence on model performance. However, how to specify model parameters properly is not a trivial task because a typical NWP model like the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model contains many model parameters and many model outputs. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the sensitivities of different WRF model outputs to the specification of its model parameters. Using a global sensitivity analysis method, the sensitivities are evaluated for surface meteorological variables such as precipitation, surface air temperature, humidity and wind speed, as well as for atmospheric variables such as total precipitable water, cloud cover, boundary layer height and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, all simulated by the WRF model using different model parameters. The goal of this study is to identify the parameters that exert most influence on the skill of short-range meteorological forecasts. The study was performed over the Greater Beijing Region of China. A total of 23 adjustable parameters from seven different physical parameterization schemes were considered. The results indicate that parameter sensitivities vary with different model outputs. However, some of the 23 model parameters considered are shown to be sensitive to all model outputs evaluated, while other parameters may be sensitive to a particular output. The sensitivity results from this research are a basis for further optimizations of the WRF model parameters.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: An ice-sheet-wide framework for englacial attenuation from ice-penetrating radar data T. M. Jordan, J. L. Bamber, C. N. Williams, J. D. Paden, M. J. Siegert, P. Huybrechts, O. Gagliardini, and F. Gillet-Chaulet The Cryosphere, 10, 1547-1570, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, 2016 Ice penetrating radar enables determination of the basal properties of ice sheets. Existing algorithms assume stationarity in the attenuation rate, which is not justifiable at an ice sheet scale. We introduce the first ice-sheet-wide algorithm for radar attenuation that incorporates spatial variability, using the temperature field from a numerical model as an initial guess. The study is a step toward ice-sheet-wide data products for basal properties and evaluation of model temperature fields.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Improving together: better science writing through peer learning Mathew A. Stiller-Reeve, Céline Heuzé, William T. Ball, Rachel H. White, Gabriele Messori, Karin van der Wiel, Iselin Medhaug, Annemarie H. Eckes, Amee O'Callaghan, Mike J. Newland, Sian R. Williams, Matthew Kasoar, Hella Elisa Wittmeier, and Valerie Kumer Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2965-2973, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2965-2016, 2016 Scientific writing must improve and the key to long-term improvement of scientific writing lies with the early-career scientist (ECS). We introduce the ClimateSnack project, which aims to motivate ECSs to start writing groups around the world to improve their skills together. Writing groups offer many benefits but can be a challenge to keep going. Several ClimateSnack writing groups formed, and this paper examines why some of the groups flourished and others dissolved.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-2116
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: River water quality changes in New Zealand over 26 years (1989–2014): Response to land use and land disturbance Jason P. Julian, Kirsten M. de Beurs, Braden Owsley, Robert J. Davies-Colley, and Anne-Gaelle E. Ausseil Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-323,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) New Zealand (NZ) is a natural laboratory for investigating water quality responses to land use change because its landscape is managed intensively. We interpreted water quality state and trends (1989–2014) of 77 river sites across NZ. We show that the greatest long-term impacts on river water quality in NZ have been densely stocked pastures (due to high nutrient inputs), followed by plantation forestry (due to sediment/nutrient runoff during harvesting).
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: A post-wildfire response in cave dripwater chemistry Gurinder Nagra, Pauline C. Treble, Martin S. Andersen, Ian J. Fairchild, Katie Coleborn, and Andy Baker Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2745-2758, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2745-2016, 2016 Our current understanding of wildfires on Earth is filled with knowledge gaps. One reason for this is our poor record of fire in natural archives. We open the possibility for speleothems to be "a missing piece to the fire-puzzle". We find by effecting surface evaporation and transpiration rates, wildfires can have a multi-year impact on speleothem, forming dripwater hydrology and chemistry. We open a new avenue for speleothems as potential palaeo-fire archives.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Improving together: better science writing through peer learning Mathew A. Stiller-Reeve, Céline Heuzé, William T. Ball, Rachel H. White, Gabriele Messori, Karin van der Wiel, Iselin Medhaug, Annemarie H. Eckes, Amee O'Callaghan, Mike J. Newland, Sian R. Williams, Matthew Kasoar, Hella Elisa Wittmeier, and Valerie Kumer Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2965-2973, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2965-2016, 2016 Scientific writing must improve and the key to long-term improvement of scientific writing lies with the early-career scientist (ECS). We introduce the ClimateSnack project, which aims to motivate ECSs to start writing groups around the world to improve their skills together. Writing groups offer many benefits but can be a challenge to keep going. Several ClimateSnack writing groups formed, and this paper examines why some of the groups flourished and others dissolved.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Circumpolar polynya regions and ice production in the Arctic: Results from MODIS thermal infrared imagery for 2002/2003 to 2014/2015 with a regional focus on the Laptev Sea Andreas Preußer, Günther Heinemann, Sascha Willmes, and Stephan Paul The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-133,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Our study presents spatial and temporal characteristics of 16 prominent polynya regions over the entire Arctic basin. By using an energy balance model, we are able to derive daily thin-ice thickness distributions from satellite and atmospheric reanalysis data. All polynyas combined yield an average ice production of about 1444 km 3 per winter. Interestingly, we find distinct regional differences in calculated trends over the last 13 years. Finally, we set a special focus on the Laptev Sea region.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Circumpolar polynya regions and ice production in the Arctic: Results from MODIS thermal infrared imagery for 2002/2003 to 2014/2015 with a regional focus on the Laptev Sea Andreas Preußer, Günther Heinemann, Sascha Willmes, and Stephan Paul The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-133,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Our study presents spatial and temporal characteristics of 16 prominent polynya regions over the entire Arctic basin. By using an energy balance model, we are able to derive daily thin-ice thickness distributions from satellite and atmospheric reanalysis data. All polynyas combined yield an average ice production of about 1444 km 3 per winter. Interestingly, we find distinct regional differences in calculated trends over the last 13 years. Finally, we set a special focus on the Laptev Sea region.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results Lara Mani, Paul D. Cole, and Iain Stewart Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673-1689, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016 Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent's Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Debris flow impact estimation on a rigid barrier Federico Vagnon and Andrea Segalini Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1691-1697, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1691-2016, 2016 This study has the aim of reviewing the dynamics of debris flow impact against rigid structures and providing a new simple formulation to predict peak thrust. The proposed equation differs from other formulations because it takes into account flow characteristics, material properties, and barrier dimensions. The developed model is sufficiently capable of predicting measured force during the laboratory tests.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Biogeochemical teleconnection links seemingly unrelated chemical/biological anomalies that are geographically separated by large distances. Bronselaer et al propose a new mechanism for an interhemispheric teleconnection of air-sea carbon dioxide fluxes in which the upwelling of the Southern Ocean triggers a series of perturbations leading to the alteration of the carbon uptake in the North Atlantic. The westerly wind over the Southern Ocean has a unique role in the climate system. It energizes the strongest ocean current, Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and it lifts up the carbon- and nutrient-rich deep waters all the way to the surface. It is an end point of the ocean's deep overturning circulation and associated biological carbon storage, where the excess carbon from accumulated decomposition of organic material is finally released back into the atmosphere. It is well established that the Southern Ocean upwelling regionally modulates the de-gassing of carbon dioxide there. However, its global-scale implication is not yet fully understood. What happens to the carbon uptake in the other parts of the oceans? In this volume of Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Bronselaer et al describes the chain of events that link the increased Southern Ocean wind to the ocean carbon uptake in the northern high latitudes. The authors conducted a set of computational experiments, showing that the Southern Ocean is a starting point of the oceanic teleconnection, where the excess nutrient is transported equatorward through the shallow overturning circulation. The stream of macro-nutrient then fertilizes the low-latitude productivity that eventually shifts the carbonate chemistry of the high latitude surface waters. This is an intriguing case of oceanic teleconnection, linking seemingly unrelated biogeochemical anomalies that are geographically separated by large distances. The surprising conclusion is that a stronger Southern Ocean wind increases the de-gassing of carbon dioxide in both northern and southern high latitudes. This happens because more carbon is upwelling into the northern high latitudes due to the increased low-latitude biological pump, approximately doubling the de-gassing intensity relative to the Southern Ocean response alone. There may be more surprises from the Southern Ocean.
    Print ISSN: 0886-6236
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9224
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: The most popular practice for analyzing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single-type probability distribution incorporated with the time-varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time-varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time-varying two-component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series (AMFS) of two stations in the Weihe River basin (WRB), with the model parameters calibrated by the meta-heuristic maximum likelihood (MHML) method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single-type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time-varying single-type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically-based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modeling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid-based spatially distributed model, DHSVM-WQ, is an outgrowth of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high spatial and temporal resolution. DHSVM-WQ simulates surface runoff quality and in-stream processes that control the transport of nonpoint-source (NPS) pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM-WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from nonpoint sources (runoff), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas, and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely due to substantially increased streamflow, and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 °C), TSS load (up to 182%), and TP load (up to 74%). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Validation of Terrestrial Water Storage Variations as Simulated by Different Global Numerical Models with GRACE Satellite Observations Liangjing Zhang, Henryk Dobslaw, Tobias Stacke, Andreas Güntner, Robert Dill, and Maik Thomas Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-330,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Global numerical models perform differently as has been found in some model intercomparison studies, which mainly focused on components as evapotranspiration, soil moisture or runoff. We have applied terrestrial water storage that is estimated from state-of-art post-processing method to validate four global numerical models and try to identify the advantages and deficiencies of a certain model. GRACE based TWS demonstrates its additional benefits to improve models in future.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: A practical approach to lake water density from electrical conductivity and temperature Santiago Moreira, Martin Schultze, Karsten Rahn, and Bertram Boehrer Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2975-2986, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2975-2016, 2016 Density calculations in lakes are essential in the study of stability, stratification and numerical modelling. However, density equations which use fixed constant coefficients are still common in use, despite their limitations. We present a practical approach which can specifically include the effect of dissolved substances by fitting two coefficients. The method has been tested against density equations and density measurements in lakes.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: The resolution of a digital elevation model (DEM) is a crucial factor in watershed hydrologic and environmental modeling. DEM resolution can cause significant variability in the representation of surface topography, which further affects quantification of hydrologic connectivity and simulation of hydrologic processes. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of DEM resolution on (1) surface microtopographic characteristics, (2) hydrologic connectivity, and (3) the spatial and temporal variations of hydrologic processes. A puddle-to-puddle (P2P) modeling system was utilized for surface delineation and modeling of the P2P overland flow dynamics, surface runoff, infiltration, and unsaturated flow for nine DEM resolution scenarios of a field plot surface. Comparisons of the nine modeling scenarios demonstrated that coarser DEM resolutions tended to eliminate topographic features, reduce surface depression storage, and strengthen hydrologic connectivity and surface runoff. We found that reduction in maximum depression storage and maximum ponding area was as high as 97.56% and 76.36%, respectively, as the DEM grid size increased from 2 cm to 80 cm. The paired t-test and fractal analysis demonstrated the existence of a threshold DEM resolution (10 cm for the field plot), within which the DEM-based hydrologic modeling was effective and acceptable. The effects of DEM resolution were further evaluated for a larger surface in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) subjected to observed rainfall events. It was found that simulations based on coarser resolution DEMs (〉10 m) tended to overestimate ponded areas and underestimate runoff discharge peaks. The simulated peak discharge from the PPR surface reduced by approximately 50% as the DEM resolution changed from 2 m to 90 m. Fractal analysis results elucidated scale dependency of hydrologic and topographic processes. In particular, scale analysis highlighted a unique constant-threshold-power relationship between DEM scale and topographic and hydrologic parameters/variables. Not only does this finding allow one to identify threshold DEM, but also further develop functional relationships for scaling to achieve valid topographic characterization as well as effective and efficient hydrologic modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: In light of daunting global sustainability challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss and food security, improving our understanding of the complex dynamics of the Earth system is crucial. However, large knowledge gaps related to the effects of land management persist, in particular those human-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems that do not result in land cover conversions. Here we review the current state of knowledge of ten common land management activities for their biogeochemical and biophysical impacts, the level of process-understanding and data availability. Our review shows that ca. one tenth of the ice free land surface is under intense human management, half under medium and one fifth under extensive management. Based on our review, we cluster these ten management activities into three groups: (1) management activities for which datasets are available, and for which a good knowledge base exists (cropland harvest and irrigation); (2) management activities for which sufficient knowledge on biogeochemical and biophysical effects exists but robust global datasets are lacking (forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, N-fertilization); and (3) land management practices with severe data gaps concomitant with an unsatisfactory level of process understanding (crop species selection, artificial wetland drainage, tillage and fire management and crop residue management, an element of crop harvest). Although we identify multiple impediments to progress, we conclude that the current status of process understanding and data availability is sufficient to advance with incorporating management in e.g. Earth System or Dynamic Vegetation models in order to provide a systematic assessment of their role in the Earth system. This review contributes to a strategic prioritization of research efforts across multiple disciplines, including land system research, ecological research and Earth system modelling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Validation of Terrestrial Water Storage Variations as Simulated by Different Global Numerical Models with GRACE Satellite Observations Liangjing Zhang, Henryk Dobslaw, Tobias Stacke, Andreas Güntner, Robert Dill, and Maik Thomas Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-330,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Global numerical models perform differently as has been found in some model intercomparison studies, which mainly focused on components as evapotranspiration, soil moisture or runoff. We have applied terrestrial water storage that is estimated from state-of-art post-processing method to validate four global numerical models and try to identify the advantages and deficiencies of a certain model. GRACE based TWS demonstrates its additional benefits to improve models in future.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Model Study on Potential Contributions of the Proposed Huangpu Gate to Flood Control in Taihu Lake Basin Hanghui Zhang, Shuguang Liu, Jianchun Ye, and Pat Yeh Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-310,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The Taihu Lake basin is located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta. Constructing a gate at the mouth of the Huangpu River is considered one of the effective solutions to the basin's flooding problems. The pattern of river flow changes from bi-directional to unidirectional flow when the estuary gate is operated. It is concluded that the Huangpu River with a proposed gate is more effective than a natural channel, and its beneficiaries include the lake and the related surrounding areas.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: This paper presents a methodology for hydrograph separation in mountain watersheds, which aims at identifying flow sources among ungauged headwater sub-catchments through a combination of observed streamflow and data on natural tracers including isotope and dissolved solids. Daily summer and bi-daily spring season water samples obtained at the outlet of the Juncal River Basin in the Andes of Central Chile were analyzed for all major ions as well as stable water isotopes, δ 18 O and δD. Additionally, various samples from rain, snow, surface streams and exfiltrating subsurface water (springs), were sampled throughout the catchment. A principal component analysis (PCA) was performed in order to address cross-correlation in the tracer dataset, reduce the dimensionality of the problem and to uncover patterns of variability. Potential sources were identified in a two-component U-space that explains 94% of the observed tracer variability at the catchment outlet. Hydrograph separation was performed through an Informative - Bayesian model. Our results indicate that the Juncal Norte Glacier headwater sub-catchment contributed at least 50% of summer flows at the Juncal River Basin outlet during the 2011–12 water year (a hydrologically dry period in the Region), even though it accounts for only 27% of the basin area. Our study confirms the value of combining solute and isotope information for estimating source contributions in complex hydrologic systems, and provides insights regarding experimental design in high-elevation semi-arid catchments. The findings of this study can be useful for evaluating modeling studies of the hydrological consequences of the rapid decrease in glacier cover observed in this region, by providing insights into the origin of river water in basins with little hydrometeorological information.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Model Study on Potential Contributions of the Proposed Huangpu Gate to Flood Control in Taihu Lake Basin Hanghui Zhang, Shuguang Liu, Jianchun Ye, and Pat Yeh Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-310,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The Taihu Lake basin is located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta. Constructing a gate at the mouth of the Huangpu River is considered one of the effective solutions to the basin's flooding problems. The pattern of river flow changes from bi-directional to unidirectional flow when the estuary gate is operated. It is concluded that the Huangpu River with a proposed gate is more effective than a natural channel, and its beneficiaries include the lake and the related surrounding areas.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
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  • 57
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    Copernicus
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Radiocarbon dating of glacier ice Chiara Uglietti, Alexander Zapf, Theo M. Jenk, Sönke Szidat, Gary Salazar, and Margit Schwikowski The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-160,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) A meaningful interpretation of the climatic history contained in ice cores requires a precise chronology. For dating the older and deeper part of the glaciers, radiocarbon analysis can be used, when organic matter such as plant or insect fragments is found in the ice. Since this happens rarely, a complementary dating tool is based on radiocarbon dating of the insoluble fraction of carbonaceous aerosols entrapped in the ice, allowing dating ice with ages between 200 and more than 10 000 years.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2016-07-24
    Description: The average flow of Silver Springs, one of the largest magnitude springs in central Florida, declined 32% from 2000 to 2012. The average groundwater head in the springshed declined 0.14 m, and the spring pool altitude increased 0.24 m during the same period. This paper presents a novel explanation of the spring flow recession curve for Silver Springs using Torricelli model, which uses the groundwater head at a sentinel well, the spring pool altitude, and the net recharge to groundwater. The effective springshed area and net recharge (defined as recharge minus groundwater pumping and evapotranspiration) were estimated based on the observed recession slopes for spring flow, groundwater head, and spring pool altitude. The results show that the effective springshed area continuously declined since 1989, and the net recharge declined since the 1970s with a significant drop in 2002. Subsequent to 2002, the net recharge increased modestly but not to the levels prior to the 1990s. The reduction in net recharge was caused by changes in hydroclimatic conditions including precipitation and temperature, along with groundwater withdrawals, which contributed to the declined spring flow.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of Central Asia: status and challenges Yaning Chen, Weihong Li, Gonghuan Fang, and Zhi Li Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-325,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in the mountainous region of Central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and shedding light on future directions. We conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological modeling are the input uncertainty and lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes. Future focuses should be on the use of multi-source of input data combined with multi-objective calibration and validation.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: Consequences and mitigation of saltwater intrusion induced by short-circuiting during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) in a coastal subsurface Koen Gerardus Zuurbier and Pieter Jan Stuyfzand Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-343,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The subsurface is increasingly perforated for exploitation of water and energy. This has increased the risk of leakage between originally separated aquifers. It is shown how this leakage can have a very negative impact on the recovery of freshwater during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) in brackish-saline aquifers. Deep interception of intruding brackish-saline water can mitigate the negative effects and buoyancy of freshwater to some extent, but not completely.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: Monitoring surface water quality using social media in the context of citizen science Hang Zheng, Hong Yang, Di Long, and Hua Jing Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-359,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Do you feel angry if the river in your living place is polluted by industries? Do you want to do something to save your environment? Just log in http://www.thuhjjc.com and use the Tsinghua Environment Monitoring Platform (TEMP) to photograph the water pollution actives and make your report. This study established a social media platform to monitor and report surface water quality. The effectiveness of the platform was demonstrated by the 265 water quality reports across 29 provinces in China.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: Consequences and mitigation of saltwater intrusion induced by short-circuiting during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) in a coastal subsurface Koen Gerardus Zuurbier and Pieter Jan Stuyfzand Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-343,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) The subsurface is increasingly perforated for exploitation of water and energy. This has increased the risk of leakage between originally separated aquifers. It is shown how this leakage can have a very negative impact on the recovery of freshwater during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) in brackish-saline aquifers. Deep interception of intruding brackish-saline water can mitigate the negative effects and buoyancy of freshwater to some extent, but not completely.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: Differences in the predicted carbon and water fluxes by different global land models have been quite large and have not decreased over the last two decades. Quantification and attribution of the uncertainties of global land surface models are important for improving the performance of global land surface models, and are the foci of this study. Here we quantified the model errors by comparing the simulated monthly global gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent heat flux (LE) by two global land surface models with the model-data products of global GPP and LE from 1982-2005. By analyzing model parameter sensitivities within their ranges, we identified about 2 to 11 most sensitive model parameters that have strong influences on the simulated GPP or LE by two global land models, and found that the sensitivities of the same parameters are different among the plant functional types (PFT). Using parameter ensemble simulations, we found that 15% to 60% of the model errors were reduced by tuning only a few (〈4) most sensitive parameters for most PFTs, and that the reduction in model errors varied spatially within a PFT or among different PFTs. Our study shows that future model improvement should optimize key model parameters, particularly those parameters relating to leaf area index, maximum carboxylation rate and stomatal conductance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: ABSTRACT The Qilianshan [ shan means ‘mountain(s)’ in Chinese] are important for understanding the Quaternary glaciations which occurred along the north-eastern margins of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Two sets of moraines identified in the Gangshika Valley on the southern slopes of the Qilianshan, and in the Jindonggou Valley on the northern slopes of the Lenglongling Ridge in the eastern Qilianshan, were dated using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. The D e values of the sediments were determined using single aliquot regeneration (SAR) and ‘global standardized growth curve’ (gSGC) procedures. The gSGC method was first applied to glacial sediment and proved to be adaptable. Based on D e distribution analysis, and a comparison between the ages of coarse-grained (90–125 μm) quartz, we concluded that the minimum age model (MAM) OSL age obtained may be closer to the burial age of the sediments. The first set of moraines in the Gangshika Valley was formed at 18.1 ± 1.8 ka. The second set of moraines in both the Gangshika and the Jindonggou valleys was mainly formed at ∼12.5–10.7 ka, consistent with the Younger Drays chronozone, most probably covering the moraines produced at 14.3 ± 1.4 ka. These results indicate that the glaciers along the Lenglongling Ridge were sensitive to abrupt decreases in temperature.
    Print ISSN: 0267-8179
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1417
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: ABSTRACT A depositional sequence bounded by upper and lower erosion surfaces covering a 35-km × 20-km area within the northern embayment of the Early Pleistocene Central North Sea is dated close to the Jaramillo Normal sub-chron at approximately 1.0–1.1 Ma. The basal surface cuts shallow marine clays of the upper Nordland Group and is characterized by furrow incisions, mega-scale glacial lineation textures and bedforms that are all orientated NNW–SSE. The sequence comprises a suite of distinctive bedforms, including a chaotic deposit up to 60 m thick, a series of moulded and lineated depositional bodies and some more complex bedforms, with lithologies shown by petrophysical data to be dominated by overconsolidated clays and thin sand layers. This sequence is considered to represent deposition from the advance and subsequent decay of a marine-terminating ice-sheet. The upper surface of the sequence coincides with the so-called ‘Crenulate Reflection’ and is characterized by a fluvial channel system, representing final retreat of the ice-sheet, which was followed by shallow marine conditions and deposition of the Aberdeen Ground Formation. It is considered that the Aberdeen Ground Formation comprises at least two main sequences spanning the Early to Middle Pleistocene.
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  • 66
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    Copernicus
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends Justin E. Stopa, Fabrice Ardhuin, and Fanny Girard-Ardhuin The Cryosphere, 10, 1605-1629, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1605-2016, 2016 Satellite observations show the Arctic sea ice has decreased the last 30 years. From our wave model hindcast and satellite altimeter datasets we observe profound increasing wave heights, which are caused by the loss of sea ice and not the driving winds. If ice-free conditions persist later into fall, then regions like the Beaufort–Chukchi Sea will be prone to developing larger waves since the driving winds are strong this time of year.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Microstructure representation of snow in coupled snowpack and microwave emission models Melody Sandells, Richard Essery, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Leena Leppänen, and Juha Lemmetyinen The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-181,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study looks at a wide range of options for simulating sensor signals for satellite monitoring of water stored as snow, though an ensemble of 1323 coupled snow evolution and microwave scattering models. The greatest improvements will be made with better computer simulations of how the snow microstructure changes, followed by how the microstructure scatters radiation at microwave frequencies. Snow compaction should also be considered in systems to monitor snow mass from space.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Brief communication: Organochlorine pesticides in an archived firn core from Law Dome, East Antarctica Marie Bigot, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Derek C. G. Muir, Darryl W. Hawker, Roger Cropp, Camilla F. Teixeira, and Susan Bengtson Nash The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-178,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were, for the first time, quantified in archived firn cores from the East Antarctic ice sheet representative of 1945–1957 C.E. and 1958–1967 C.E. The core sections were melted under high purity nitrogen atmosphere and the melt water analysed. Methods allowed quantification of hexachlorocyclohexanes, heptachlor, trans-chlordane, dieldrin and endrin. While the core presented evidence of nominal modern-use chemical contamination, indicating handling and/or storage contamination, legacy OCP concentrations and deposition rates reported are orders of magnitude lower than those from Arctic regions, lending support for their validity. The study further provides a description of equipment used and suggests adapted methods to overcome logistical challenges associated with trace organic contaminant detection in Polar Regions.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: ABSTRACT Spheroidal weathering, one of the important rock weathering styles, has been attributed to chemical weathering by the water from joint surfaces, and mechanical aspects of the weathering have not been well addressed. We made an investigation on spheroidal weathering of Miocene granite porphyry with well-developed columnar joints and found that this spheroidal weathering proceeds through chemical processes and accompanying mechanical processes. The investigation of the textures, physical properties, mineralogy, and chemistry of the porphyry revealed the presence of a brown band on the surface margins of corestones, representing the oxidation of pyrite and chlorite, and the precipitation of iron hydroxides, and the consequent generation of micro-cracks within the band. During weathering, oxidation progresses inwards from joints that surround the rindlets, including both high-angle columnar and low-angle planar joints, and causes rounding of the unweathered interior portion of the rock. Microscopic observations of the brown band embedded with fluorescent resin show that pores are first filled with iron hydroxides, and that micro-cracks then form parallel to the oxidation front in the outer portion of the brown band. Iron hydroxide precipitation increases the P-wave velocity in the brown band, while micro-crack formation decreases the tensile strength of the rock. Where the brown band has thickened to ~6 cm, the micro-cracks are connected to one another to create continuous cracks, which separate the rindlets from the corestone. Micro-crack formation parallel to the corestone surface may be attributed to compressive stresses generated by small amounts of volumetric expansion due to the precipitation of iron hydroxides in the brown band. Earth surface is under oxidizing environments so that precipitation of iron hydroxides commonly occurs; the spheroidal weathering in this paper is a typical example of the combination of chemical and mechanical processes under such environments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0197-9337
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-9837
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  • 70
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    Wiley
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: No abstract is available for this article.
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  • 71
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    Wiley
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: No abstract is available for this article.
    Print ISSN: 0197-9337
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: ABSTRACT Cultivated fields have been shown to be the dominant sources of sediment in almost all investigated UK catchments, typically contributing 85 to 95% of sediment inputs. As a result, most catchment management strategies are directed towards mitigating these sediment inputs. However, in many regions of the UK such as the Nene basin there is a paucity of sediment provenance data. This study used the 137 Cs inventories of lake and floodplain cores as well as the 137 Cs activities of present day sediment to determine sediment provenance. Sediment yields were also reconstructed in a small lake catchment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Low 137 Cs inventories were present in the lake and floodplain cores in comparison to the reference inventory and inventories in cores from other UK catchments. 137 Cs activities in the present day sediments were low; falling close to those found in the channel bank catchment samples. It was estimated that 60 to 100% of the sediment in the Nene originated from channel banks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Pre 1963 sediment yields were approximately 11.2 t km −2 yr −1 and post 1963 was approximately 11.9 t km −2 yr −1 . The lack of increased sediment yield post 1963 and low sediment yield is unusual for a UK catchment (where a yield of 28 to 51 t km −2 yr −1 is typical for a lowland agricultural catchment), but is explained by the low predicted contribution of sediment from agricultural topsoils. The high channel bank contribution is likely caused by the river being starved of sediment from topsoils, increasing its capacity to entrain bank material. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. The good agreement between the results derived using cores and recently transported sediments, highlight the reliability of 137 Cs when tracing sediment sources. However, care should be taken to assess the potential impacts of sediment particle size, sediment focusing in lakes and the possible remobilisation of 137 Cs from sedimentary deposits. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: ABSTRACT Reporting uncertainty in environmental measurements and estimates is important for cross comparison and inter-comparison of sites and other spatial units. One such measure is the load of large in-stream wood in river systems. In this paper we propose the use of the Weibull distribution to describe the central tendency and variability of wood loads along a river reach. We illustrate the link between the average wood load and the central tendency or scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. The shape of the Weibull distribution is strongly related to the ability of rivers to transport and rearrange the wood in a reach. We use six Victorian rivers to test the fit of the Weibull distribution, showing that the Weibull is a useful and flexible distribution that provides common reporting metrics useful for future studies. Using a common reporting metrics provides a stronger tool for comparisons of wood loads between rivers and with reaches. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 74
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    Wiley
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: No abstract is available for this article.
    Electronic ISSN: 2054-4049
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Global environmental images have become part of our everyday life experience. We encounter them in news reports, scientific articles and artistic interventions. Yet so far, only the most iconic of these images have received close critical attention from scholars coming mostly from two related fields, science studies and cultural geography. Some of those studies, as for instance research carried out on the famous Apollo photographs, have revealed that the icons of our environmental age do not provide simple readings, that they carry multiple, often contradicting messages, and that they can be vectors of highly ambiguous and even conflicting political beliefs. However, historically informed interdisciplinary research on visual cultures from an environmental perspective is still at its beginning. This essay thus calls for a systematic exploration of the crucial role the visual plays in the creation, circulation, interpretation and adaptation of global environmental knowledge. It is argued that this inquiry cannot be left solely to historians or geographers but calls for a truly interdisciplinary engagement. One central claim is that we need to better understand the constitutive role the visual and associated knowledge practices, conventions and infrastructures play in mediating global environmental phenomena. One possibility, it is argued, is to develop a broader historical framework for understanding how the visual actively shaped scientific and environmental discourse, and how it stimulated the rise of holistic and dynamic understandings of the environment from the nineteenth century onwards. A second important research area that is suggested concerns the crucial role global environmental images play at the interface of science discourse and environmental policy and governance. The essay concludes by suggesting three basic theses which seem particularly promising for future interdisciplinary inquiries into global environmental images. The paper calls for a historically informed interdisciplinary inquiry into global environmental images. e00020
    Electronic ISSN: 2054-4049
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-366,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected with annual low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical centre of the event was in the area of Southern Germany where the drought lasted particularly long. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources hydrological data is required in addition to the hydro-meteorological indices.
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Hydrological threats for riparian wetlands of international importance – a global quantitative and qualitative analysis Christof Schneider, Martina Flörke, Lucia De Stefano, and Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-350,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Riparian wetlands are disappearing worldwide due to altered river hydrology. The WaterGAP3 model is used to compare modified to natural flow regimes at 93 Ramsar sites. Results show that water resource management seriously impairs inundation patterns at 29 % of the sites. New dam initiatives are likely to affect especially wetlands located in South America, Africa, Asia and the Balkan Peninsula. Hotspots for climate change impacts could be Eastern Europe and South America.
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry Madeline R. Magee and Chin H. Wu Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-262,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Water temperatures and stratification in three morphometrically different lakes over the century are examined. It is found that surface temperatures increased, bottom temperatures decreased, and duration of the stratified increased. Abrupt changes in latent heat flux appear to be independent of morphometry, indicating that the timing of change is driven by climate. Increasing air temperature warmed bottom waters while decreasing wind speed cooled bottom waters, suggesting that the change of bott
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-366,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected with annual low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical centre of the event was in the area of Southern Germany where the drought lasted particularly long. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources hydrological data is required in addition to the hydro-meteorological indices.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Insights into the water mean transit time in a high-elevation tropical ecosystem Giovanny M. Mosquera, Catalina Segura, Kellie B. Vaché, David Windhorst, Lutz Breuer, and Patricio Crespo Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2987-3004, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2987-2016, 2016 This study focuses on the investigation of baseflow mean transit times (MTTs) in a high-elevation tropical ecosystem (páramo) using stable water isotopes. Results showed short MTTs (
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Leaf-scale experiments reveal important omission in the Penman-Monteith equation Stanislaus J. Schymanski and Dani Or Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-363,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Most of the rain falling on land is returned to the atmosphere by plant leaves, which release water vapour (transpire) through tiny pores. To better understand this process, we used artificial leaves in a special wind tunnel and discovered major problems with an established approach (PM equation), widely used to quantify transpiration and its sensitivity to climate change. We present an improved set of equations, consistent with experiments and displaying more realistic climate sensitivity.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Identifying water deficit and vegetation response during the 2009/10 drought over North China: Implications for the South-to-North Water Diversion project Bowen Zhu, Xianhong Xie, and Kang Zhang Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-313,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study attempts to identify water deficit using GRACE data and vegetation response during the 2009/10 drought over North China. There was a decling trend in total water storage for the past decade based on GRACE data, and the regional deficit of water storage was approximately 25 km 3 in 2009/10. This drought event has led to suppression of vegetation growth in North China. The SNWD project may ease the water storage deficit in North China for this level of drought intensity.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2016-07-27
    Description: Hydrological threats for riparian wetlands of international importance – a global quantitative and qualitative analysis Christof Schneider, Martina Flörke, Lucia De Stefano, and Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-350,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Riparian wetlands are disappearing worldwide due to altered river hydrology. The WaterGAP3 model is used to compare modified to natural flow regimes at 93 Ramsar sites. Results show that water resource management seriously impairs inundation patterns at 29 % of the sites. New dam initiatives are likely to affect especially wetlands located in South America, Africa, Asia and the Balkan Peninsula. Hotspots for climate change impacts could be Eastern Europe and South America.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2016-07-28
    Description: Discharge simulation from snow-dominated catchments seems to be an easy task. Any spatially-explicit precipitation-runoff model coupled to a temperature-index snow model generally yields simulations that mimic well the observed daily discharges. The robustness of such models is, however, questionable: in presence of strong annual discharge cycles, small model residuals do not guarantee high explanatory power of the underlying model. This paper proposes a methodology for snow hydrological model identification within a limits-of-acceptability framework, where acceptable model simulations are the ones that reproduce a set of signatures within an a priori specified range. The signatures proposed here namely include the relationship between the air temperature regime and the discharge regime, a new snow hydrology signature that can be readily transferred to other Alpine settings. The discriminatory power of all analyzed signatures is assessed with a new measure of their discriminatory power in the model prediction domain. The value of the proposed snow hydrology signatures and of the limits-of-acceptability approach is demonstrated for the Dischma river in Switzerland, whose discharge shows a strong temporal variability of hydrologic forcing conditions over the last 30 years. The signature-based model identification for this case study leads to the surprising conclusion that the observed discharge data contains a multi-year period that cannot be reproduced with the model at hand. This model-data mismatch might well result from a yet to be identified problem with the discharge observations, which would have been difficult to detect in a classical residual-based model identification approach. Overall, the detailed results for this case study underline the robustness of the limits-of-acceptability approach in the presence of error-prone observations if it is applied in combination with relatively robust signatures. Future work will show whether snow hydrology signatures and their limits-of-acceptability can be regionalized to ungauged catchments, which would make this model selection approach particularly powerful for Alpine environments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0885-6087
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1085
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2016-07-28
    Description: Using a Mesosphere Stratosphere Troposph e re (MST) radar operating at 53 MHz, the present work reports that during the development of conve c tion over the Indian tropical station of Gadanki at 16:38 – 17:30 UT (Universal time) on 06 June 2011, all these three source mechanisms played important roles in determining the characteristics of high-frequency internal-atmospheric gravity waves generated: (1) latent heating of convection, (2) mechanical oscillation of up and down drafts associated with convection and (3) obstacle effect of wind flows over convective towers near the tropopause level. In general, it is found that while the depth of latent heating determines the vertical wavelength of gravity waves, the oscillation frequency of up and down drafts determines the observed frequency of waves. From the study of vertical structure of vertical wind velocities and phases of three waves (~13, ~17 and ~26 min) generated during this event, it is observed that while the ~13 min and ~26 min oscillations are associated with mechanical oscillator mechanism, the ~17 min oscillation is associated with obstacle effect. Analyses (Fourier, Morlet-wavelet transforms and Maximum Entropy Method (MEM)) of all the three components of wind velocities, measured by the MST radar, show that there is a clear association of gravity waves generated with convection and the vertical propagation characteristics of the gravity waves are found to be in good agreement with theoretical expectations. With the back ground atmospheric information obtained by using the data of GPS radiosondes, ERA-Interim and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses, high-resolution WRF model simulations support the present observations that in turn will help in a large way to the progress of parameterization of convection-generated high-frequency gravity waves in general circulation models. The present work also finds that water molecules induced distinct atmospheric polarized-refractive-index-structures are in existence, which is in accordance with an earlier report on this subject.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Riverbank stabilization using rock riprap is commonly used for protecting road and bridge structures from fluvial erosion. However, little is known about how streams adjust to such perturbation or how this can affect fish habitat in different fluvial environments, particularly for non-salmonid species in small streams. The objective of this study is to assess impacts of riprap on fish habitat quantity and quality through a pairwise comparison of 27 stabilized and non-stabilized stream reaches in two physiographic regions, the St. Lawrence Lowlands and the Appalachian highlands of Montérégie-Est (Quebec, Canada). Both quantitative (hydro-morphological index of diversity, HMID) and qualitative (Qualitative Habitat Evaluation Index , QHEI) fish habitat assessment techniques are applied in order to compare results between methods. For each stream reach depth and velocity were measured to calculate HMID. In-stream cover (woody debris, overhanging vegetation, undercut banks, aquatic macrophytes) and habitat units (pools, riffles, runs, glides) were also documented and used to determine QHEI. Results show that overall bank stabilization using riprap at bridge and stream crossings alters fish habitat characteristics. Loss of in-stream covers and riparian vegetation lower QHEI scores at stabilized reaches, especially in more pristine Appalachian streams, but has less impact on already altered straightened Lowlands streams. In this latter context, some positive alterations of fish habitat were observed in riprapped reaches due to the coarsening of the substrate and an induced increase of slope. The two metrics (HMID and QHEI) revealed similar differences between stabilized and non-stabilized sites for Lowlands sites, but their level of agreement was much less in the Appalachian streams, suggesting caution when interpreting habitat quality results based on a single metric. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0197-9337
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-9837
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late-successional conifers to early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age-dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age-dependent succession, the relative abundances of early-successional deciduous broadleaves and early-successional conifers have increased at the expense of late-successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO 2 promoted early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early-successional conifers at the expense of late-successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO 2 and warming will continue in the 21st century.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Assessment of land use impact on hydraulic threshold conditions for gully head cut initiation Aliakbar Nazari Samani, Qiuwen Chen, Shahram Khalighi, Robert James Wasson, and Mohammad Reza Rahdari Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3005-3012, doi:10.5194/hess-20-3005-2016, 2016 We hypothesized that land use had important effects on hydraulic threshold conditions for gully head cut initiation. We investigated the effects using an experimental plot. The results indicated that the use of a threshold value of τ cr  = 35  dyne cm −2 and ω u  = 0.4 Cm S −1 in physically based soil erosion models is susceptible to high uncertainty when assessing gully erosion.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Numerical Solution and Application of Time-Space Fractional Governing Equations of One-Dimensional Unsteady Open Channel Flow Process Ali Ercan and M. Levent Kavvas Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-364,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) A finite difference numerical approach is proposed to solve the time-space fractional governing equations of one-dimensional unsteady/non-uniform open channel flow process. Numerical simulations showed that flow discharge and water depth can exhibit heavier tails in downstream locations as space and time fractional derivative powers decrease from 1. The fractional governing equations under consideration are generalizations of the well-known Saint Venant equations.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Vegetative impacts upon bedload transport capacity and channel stability for differing alluvial planforms in the Yellow River source zone Zhi Wei Li, Guo An Yu, Gary Brierley, and Zhao Yin Wang Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3013-3025, doi:10.5194/hess-20-3013-2016, 2016 Influence of vegetation upon bedload transport and channel morphodynamics is examined along a channel stability gradient ranging from meandering to anabranching to anabranching–braided to fully braided planform conditions along trunk and tributary reaches of the Yellow River source zone in western China. This innovative work reveals complex interactions between channel planform, bedload transport capacity, sediment supply in the flood season, and the hydraulic role of vegetation.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) (CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern U.S. are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snowpacks, longer growing seasons and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern U.S. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrologic responses to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change Long Phi Hoang, Hannu Lauri, Matti Kummu, Jorma Koponen, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Iwan Supit, Rik Leemans, Pavel Kabat, and Fulco Ludwig Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3027-3041, doi:10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016, 2016 We modelled hydrological changes under climate change in the Mekong River, focusing on extreme events. The scenario ensemble shows an intensification of the hydrological cycle under climate change. Annual river flow increases between 5 and 16 % depending on locations. Extreme high flows increase substantially in both magnitude and frequency, posing threats to flood safety in the basin. Extreme low-flow events are projected to reduce as a result of increased river flow during the dry season.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: On the non-stationarity of hydrological response in anthropogenically unaffected catchments: An Australian perspective Hoori Ajami, Ashish sharma, Lawrence E. Band, Jason P. Evans, Narendra K. Tuteja, G. E. Amirthanathan, and Mohammed A. Bari Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-353,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present the first data-based framework for explaining why catchments behave in a non-stationary manner, even when they are unaffected by deforestation or urbanization. The role of vegetation dynamics on stream flow are indicated by similar or greater sensitivity of annual runoff ratio to annual fractional vegetation cover. We formulated a novel ecohydrologic catchment classification framework that incorporates the role of vegetation dynamics on catchment scale water partitioning.
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Using rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to issue and improve urban inundation alerts Tsun-Hu Yang, Gong-Do Hwang, Chin-Cheng Tsai, and Jui-Yi Ho Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-340,2016 Manuscript under review for HESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Taiwan continues to suffer from floods. This study proposes the integration of rainfall thresholds and ensemble precipitation forecasts to provide probabilistic urban inundation forecasts. Utilization of ensemble precipitation forecasts can extend forecast lead times to 72%thinsp;h, preceding peak flows and allowing response agencies to take necessary preparatory measures. This study also develops a hybrid of real-time observation and rainfall forecasts to improve the first 24-h inundation forecasts.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Aspects of a large-eddy simulation (LES) model performance are investigated in simulations of a moderately stable boundary layer. The LES utilizes the constant-coefficient Smagorinsky–Lilly subgrid-scale (SGS) closure. Three model parameters are considered: grid spacing, SGS model constant andorder of accuracy (resolving power) of the advection discretization. Second-, fourth- and sixth-orderfully-conservative non-dissipative advection schemes are examined. All three model parameters consid-ered significantly affect the LES results. Depending on the value of the model constant, two main errorproducing mechanisms are identified. For high values of the model constant spurious turbulence collapse,either during the short period of model spin-up, or for the entire simulation duration, is observed. Even though this spurious model characteristic was previously documented, and perhaps expected for low resolution simulations, it depends on the order of the advection discretization implying a significant dis- cretization and SGS closure interaction. For low values of the model constant, numerical discretization errors dominate, leading to accumulation of energy at small scales and over-prediction of the magni- tude of the surface heat flux. Differences in potential temperature profiles are well correlated with the surface heat flux. Overall, the fourth- and sixth-order schemes perform significantly better than the second-order scheme. The differences between the fourth- and sixth-order schemes are relatively small and the increased computational expense of the sixth-order scheme may not be effective in most ap-plications, at least for the low-order statistics considered in this study. Even though the results of the Smagorinsky–Lilly closure show persistent dependence on all model parameters examined, for several pa- rameter combinations the differences with respect to a reference simulation are small. Thus, in contrast to the conclusions of previous studies, the closure can accurately capture moderately stable flows.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: ABSTRACT The precipitation history of south-west Australia since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has important implications for understanding southern hemisphere climate dynamics. Previously reported environmental records indicating more open vegetation during the LGM have been interpreted in terms of aridity, but such changes can be explained by alternative mechanisms. To provide new evidence concerning the region's Quaternary precipitation history, we examine temporal changes in large mammal richness at four south-west Australian fossil sites: Devil's Lair, Tunnel Cave, Witchcliffe Rock Shelter and Rainbow Cave. Large mammal richness is correlated strongly with mean annual precipitation across 53 modern Australian communities. Extending this relationship to the fossil record, a steady increase in richness from the LGM to the onset of the Holocene at both Devil's Lair and Tunnel Cave is consistent with increased precipitation through time. This supports previous interpretations of a more arid LGM and implies regional heterogeneity in the position of the southern hemisphere westerlies. A reduction in richness during the last ∼1000 years is unlikely to be the result of precipitation change and may be related to more frequent burning of the landscape by hunter-gatherers in an effort to increase availability of large prey.
    Print ISSN: 0267-8179
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-1417
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations Sebastian Bathiany, Bregje van der Bolt, Mark S. Williamson, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Egbert H. van Nes, and Dirk Notz The Cryosphere, 10, 1631-1645, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016 We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2016-07-29
    Description: Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations Sebastian Bathiany, Bregje van der Bolt, Mark S. Williamson, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Egbert H. van Nes, and Dirk Notz The Cryosphere, 10, 1631-1645, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016 We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain Jesica Tamara Castillo-Rodríguez, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno, Sara Perales-Momparler, and Juan Ramón Porta-Sancho Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1699-1718, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1699-2016, 2016 This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative flood risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The conducted research work aims at providing a framework for local flood risk analysis and to support risk-informed decision-making (e.g. urban planning and development, flood risk management, civil protection). This article shows the added value of a risk-informed perspective, applied to a real case study in Spain.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Meteorological factors driven glacial till changing and the associated periglacial debris flows in Tianmo Valley, southeast Tibetan Plateau Mingfeng Deng, Ningsheng Chen, and Mei Liu Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-251,2016 Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments) Initiation of deris flows in Tianmo valley shows annual temperature spiked and glacier retreat quickly before the three debris flows, while they did not occur when glacier retreat is sharpest, resulting from the bared glacial till is frozen as the melting of internal ice lags behind glacial retreat. The activity of the glacial till can be enhanced by prolonged high air temperature. Finally, either rainfall or continuous percolation of ice ablation water flows can generate periglacial debris flows.
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