ALBERT

Description: Abstract Experimental study of the effects of projected climate change on plant phenology allows us to isolate effects of warming on life history events such as leaf out. We simulated a 2°C temperature increase and 20% precipitation increase in a recently harvested temperate deciduous forest community in central Pennsylvania, USA, and observed the leaf out phenology of all species in 2009 and 2010. Over 130 plant species were monitored weekly in study plots, but due to high variability in species composition among plots, species were grouped into five functional groups: short forbs, tall forbs, shrubs, small trees, and large trees. Tall forbs and large trees, which usually emerge in the late spring, advanced leaf out 14‐18 days in response to warming. Short forbs, shrubs, and small trees emerge early in spring and did not alter their phenology in response to warming or increased precipitation treatments. Earlier leaf out of tall forbs and large trees coincided with almost three weeks of increased community‐level leaf area index (LAI), indicating greater competition and a condensed spring green‐up period. While phenology of large trees and tall forbs appears to be strongly influenced by temperature‐based growth cues, our results suggest that photoperiod and chilling cues more strongly influence the leaf out of other functional groups. Reduced freeze events and warmer temperatures from predicted climate change will interact with non‐temperature growth cues to have cascading consequences throughout the ecosystem.

Description: Paul Baird and Mohammad Wehbe Given a Riemannian 3-manifold (M, g) endowed with a unit vector field U that is tangent to a conformal foliation, we require that the pair extend to a space-time ([script M],[script G]) endowed with a space-like unit vector field U in such a way that U simultaneously generates null geodesics and is ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 032504 (2012)] published Thu Mar 8, 2012.

Description: Intercomparison of two meteorological limited area models for quantitative precipitation forecast verification Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 591-606, 2012 Author(s): E. Oberto, M. Milelli, F. Pasi, and B. Gozzini The demand for verification of numerical models is still very high, especially for what concerns the operational Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) used, among others, for evaluating the issuing of warnings to the population. In this study, a comparative verification of the QPF, predicted by two operational Limited Area Models (LAMs) for the Italian territory is presented: COSMO-I7 (developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and WRF-NMM (developed at NOAA-NCEP). The observational dataset is the precipitation recorded by the high-resolution non-GTS rain gauges network of the National Civil Protection Department (NCPD) over two years (2007–2008). Observed and forecasted precipitation have been treated as areal quantity (areal average of the values accumulated in 6 and 24 h periods) over the 102 "warning areas", defined by the NCPD both for administrative and hydrological purposes. Statistics are presented through a series of conventional indices (BIAS, POD and POFD) and, in addition, the Extreme Dependency Score (EDS) and the Base Rate (BS or 1-BS) have been used for keeping into account the vanishing of the indices as the events become rare. Results for long-period verification (the whole 2 yr) with increasing thresholds, seasonal trend (3 months period), diurnal error cycle and error maps, are presented. Results indicate that WRF has a general tendency of QPF overestimation for low thresholds and underestimation for higher ones, while COSMO-I7 tends to overestimate for all thresholds. Both models show a seasonal trend, with a bigger overestimation during summer and spring, while during autumn and winter the models tend to be more accurate.

Description: Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere, 6, 255-272, 2012 Author(s): M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation ( H s ). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of H s and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

Description: We examined the relationships between large wood (LW) export and precipitation patterns and intensity by analyzing the data on the annual volume of LW removed from 42 reservoirs and the daily precipitation at or near the reservoir sites. We also calculated the effective precipitation by considering the antecedent precipitation. Both daily and effective precipitation data were used as explanatory variables to explain LW export. The model selection revealed that the precipitation pattern and intensity controlling LW export varied with latitude in the Japanese archipelago. In small watersheds with narrow channel widths and low discharges, mass movements, such as landslides and debris flows, are major factors in the production and transport of LW. In this case, the effective precipitation required to initiate mass movements regulated the LW export and did not vary with the latitude. In intermediate and large watersheds with wide channel widths and high stream discharges, heavy rainfall and subsequent floods regulated buoyant depth, influencing the initiation of LW movement. In southern and central Japan, intense rainfall accompanied by typhoons or localized torrential downpours causes geomorphic disturbances, which introduce abundant pieces of LW into the channels. However, these pieces continue to be removed by repeated rainfall events. Therefore, LW export is supply-limited and potentially produces less LW accumulation. Conversely, in northern Japan, where typhoons and torrential downpours are rare, LW export is transport-limited because LW pieces recruited by bank erosion, tree mortality, and windthrow accumulate and persist on valley floors. These pieces may be easily exported by infrequent flooding.

Description: We developed a method to measure in situ the isotopic composition of liquid water with minimal supervision and, most important, with a temporal resolution of less than a minute. For this purpose a microporous hydrophobic membrane contactor (Membrana) was combined with an isotope laser spectrometer (Picarro). The contactor, originally designed for degassing liquids, was used with N2 as a carrier gas in order to transform a small fraction of liquid water to water vapor. The generated water vapor was then analyzed continuously by the Picarro analyzer. To prove the membrane's applicability, we determined the specific isotope fractionation factor for the phase change through the contactor's membrane across an extended temperature range (8°C–21°C) and with different waters of known isotopic compositions. This fractionation factor is needed to subsequently derive the liquid water isotope ratio from the measured water vapor isotope ratios. The system was tested with a soil column experiment, where the isotope values derived with the new method corresponded well (R2 = 0.998 for δ18O and R2 = 0.997 for δ2H) with those of liquid water samples taken simultaneously and analyzed with a conventional method (cavity ring-down spectroscopy). The new method supersedes taking liquid samples and employs only relatively cheap and readily available components. This makes it a relatively inexpensive, fast, user-friendly, and easily reproducible method. It can be applied in both the field and laboratory wherever a water vapor isotope analyzer can be run and whenever real-time isotope data of liquid water are required at high temporal resolution.

Description: Transit time of discharge is a hydrological characteristic used in water resource management. Previous studies have demonstrated large spatial variation in the mean transit time (MTT) of stream base flow in meso-scale catchments. Various relationships between topography and MTT have been reported. Although it is generally assumed that base flow MTT is controlled by the depth of the hydrologically active layer that recharges a stream, this hypothesis has not been tested in field studies. This study confirmed that the depth of hydrologically active soil and bedrock controls spatial variation in MTT. The study used isotopic and geochemical tracer data gathered in the 4.27 km2 Fudoji catchment, central Japan. The results, together with previously documented relationships between topography and MTT, indicate that the depth of the hydrologically active layer is sometimes, but not always, related to topography. A comprehensive understanding of the factors that control base flow production in mountainous catchments will require further study of the water flow path depths that recharge streams.

Description: Estimating ice phenology on large northern lakes from AMSR-E: algorithm development and application to Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Canada The Cryosphere, 6, 235-254, 2012 Author(s): K.-K. Kang, C. R. Duguay, and S. E. L. Howell Time series of brightness temperatures ( T B ) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are examined to determine ice phenology variables on the two largest lakes of northern Canada: Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL). T B measurements from the 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset/melt-onset and ice-on/ice-off dates on both lakes. The 18.7 GHz (H-pol) channel is found to be the most suitable for estimating these ice dates as well as the duration of the ice cover and ice-free seasons. A new algorithm is proposed using this channel and applied to map all ice phenology variables on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002–2009). Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of each variable at the pixel level reveals that: (1) both freeze-onset and ice-on dates occur on average about one week earlier on GBL than on GSL (Day of Year (DY) 318 and 333 for GBL; DY 328 and 343 for GSL); (2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (freeze-onset to ice-on) takes a slightly longer amount of time on GBL than on GSL (about 1 week on average); (3) melt-onset and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL (DY 143 and 183 for GBL; DY 135 and 157 for GSL); (4) the break-up process or melt duration (melt-onset to ice-off) lasts on average about three weeks longer on GBL; and (5) ice cover duration estimated from each individual pixel is on average about three weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart, GSL. A comparison of dates for several ice phenology variables derived from other satellite remote sensing products (e.g. NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), QuikSCAT, and Canadian Ice Service Database) show that, despite its relatively coarse spatial resolution, AMSR-E 18.7 GHz provides a viable means for monitoring of ice phenology on large northern lakes.

Description: Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010 The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 957-979, 2012 Author(s): D. J. Cavalieri and C. L. Parkinson Analyses of 32 yr (1979–2010) of Arctic sea ice extents and areas derived from satellite passive microwave radiometers are presented for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and for nine Arctic regions. There is an overall negative yearly trend of −51.5 ± 4.1 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−4.1 ± 0.3% decade −1 ) in sea ice extent for the hemisphere. The sea ice extent trends for the individual Arctic regions are all negative except for the Bering Sea: −3.9 ± 1.1 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−8.7 ± 2.5% decade −1 ) for the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, +0.3 ± 0.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (+1.2 ± 2.7% decade −1 ) for the Bering Sea, −4.4 ± 0.7 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−5.1 ± 0.9% decade −1 ) for Hudson Bay, −7.6 ± 1.6 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−8.5 ± 1.8% decade −1 ) for Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, −0.5 ± 0.3 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−5.9 ± 3.5% decade −1 ) for the Gulf of St. Lawrence, −6.5 ± 1.1 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−8.6 ± 1.5% decade −1 ) for the Greenland Sea, −13.5 ± 2.3 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−9.2 ± 1.6% decade −1 ) for the Kara and Barents Seas, −14.6 ± 2.3 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−2.1 ± 0.3% decade −1 ) for the Arctic Ocean, and −0.9 ± 0.4 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 (−1.3 ± 0.5% decade −1 ) for the Canadian Archipelago. Similarly, the yearly trends for sea ice areas are all negative except for the Bering Sea. On a seasonal basis for both sea ice extents and areas, the largest negative trend is observed for summer with the next largest negative trend being for autumn.

Description: This paper examines the long-term historical changes in frequency and amplitude of hydroclimatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin using data from the second half of 20th century. The temporal variability of basin-wide rainfall extremes and river flow extremes from four gauging stations was investigated under the hypothesis of no trend and no persistence in time. On the basis of a quantile anomaly analysis method, decadal variations in extreme daily, monthly, and annual quantiles were studied, and the periods of statistical significance were identified. The analysis showed that high and low river flows and rainfall depths do not vary in time in a fully random way but show a particular variation pattern. Their extremes show significant decadal variations. The 1980s had statistically significant negative anomalies in extremes in comparison with the long-term reference period of 1964–2009, while the 1960s–1970s and the 1990s–2000s had positive anomalies, although less significant. There is neither consistent increasing nor decreasing trend in rainfall and flow extremes of recent years. Therefore, anticipated trends due to global warming could not be identified. Conversely, low-flow extremes show an increasing trend during the last decade, which could be related to the effect of water regulation works at the outlet of Lake Tana. Moreover, similar patterns and statistically significant correlations were found between climatic indices representing the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the Blue Nile rainfall and flow extremes. Changes that occur on the Pacific Ocean appear to be a main driver for the decadal oscillations in climate and related high and low Blue Nile water availability for Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.

Description: On teaching styles of water educators and the impact of didactic training Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 2959-2986, 2012 Author(s): A. Pathirana, J. H. Koster, E. de Jong, and S. Uhlenbrook Solving today's complex hydrological problems requires originality, creative thinking and trans-disciplinary approaches. Hydrological education that was traditionally teacher centred, where the students look up to the teacher for expertise and information, should change to better prepare hydrologists to develop new knowledge and apply it in new contexts. An important first step towards this goal is to change the concept of education in the educators' minds. The results of an investigation to find out whether didactic training influences the beliefs of hydrology educators about their teaching styles is presented. Faculty of UNESCO-IHE has been offered a didactic certification program named University Teaching Qualification (UTQ). The hypothesis that UTQ training will significantly alter the teaching style of faculty at UNESCO-IHE from expert/formal authority traits towards facilitator/delegator traits was tested. A first survey was conducted among the entire teaching staff (total 101, response rate 58%). The results indicated that there are significantly higher traits of facilitator and delegator teaching styles among UTQ graduates compared to faculty who were not significantly trained in didactics. The second survey which was conducted among UTQ graduates (total 20, response rate 70%), enquiring after their teaching styles before and after UTQ, corroborated these findings.

Description: Characterization of deep aquifer dynamics using principal component analysis of sequential multilevel data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 761-771, 2012 Author(s): D. Kurtzman, L. Netzer, N. Weisbrod, A. Nasser, E. R. Graber, and D. Ronen Two sequential multilevel profiles were obtained in an observation well opened to a 130-m thick, unconfined, contaminated aquifer in Tel Aviv, Israel. While the general profile characteristics of major ions, trace elements, and volatile organic compounds were maintained in the two sampling campaigns conducted 295 days apart, the vertical locations of high concentration gradients were shifted between the two profiles. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the chemical variables resulted in a first principal component which was responsible for ∼60% of the variability, and was highly correlated with depth. PCA revealed three distinct depth-dependent water bodies in both multilevel profiles, which were found to have shifted vertically between the sampling events. This shift cut across a clayey bed which separated the top and intermediate water bodies in the first profile, and was located entirely within the intermediate water body in the second profile. Continuous electrical conductivity monitoring in a packed-off section of the observation well revealed an event in which a distinct water body flowed through the monitored section ( v ∼ 150 m yr −1 ). It was concluded that the observed changes in the profiles result from dominantly lateral flow of water bodies in the aquifer rather than vertical flow. The significance of this study is twofold: (a) it demonstrates the utility of sequential multilevel observations from deep wells and the efficacy of PCA for evaluating the data; (b) the fact that distinct water bodies of 10 to 100 m vertical and horizontal dimensions flow under contaminated sites, which has implications for monitoring and remediation.

Description: At least half of the world's population resides in the coastal zone and the livelihoods of billions of people are affected either directly or indirectly by the production and sustainability of nearshore fisheries. Landscape change, specifically development of tree plantations, is accelerating worldwide as developing countries integrate into global markets to sell goods, offer climate-mitigation services (carbon), and/or provide renewable energy. These changes can release excess nutrients into adjacent coastal waters causing eutrophication that alters the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. This study examined the relationship between coastal drainage basin land use/ land cover change (LCLUC), specifically development of tree plantations, patterns of chlorophyll a in nearshore coastal waters, and the biological condition of commercially important shellfish, Concholepas concholepas ( loco ) in southern Chile. Locos (N= 1,374) were sampled across 13 watersheds (35,853 km 2 ) and 42 fisheries management areas (spanning 250 km of coastline). Locos harvested from management areas influenced by tree plantations had approximately 30% more endobiont (shell-boring) phoronids, almost twice as many endobiont polychaetes and twice as many epibiont (shell-attaching) barnacles than locos from areas in close proximity to watersheds dominated by native forests (15-20% of the watershed). Phoronid infested locos from coastal waters adjacent to watersheds with tree plantations were of relatively poor biological condition (smaller and narrower in width) and of reduced market value. Our study suggests that tree plantations result in indirect ecological impacts to coastal fisheries (more nutrients and higher phytoplankton biomass, resulting in smaller, low quality locos), and costs are born by coastal fishers (lower prices for locos). Increases in tree plantations could thus potentially significantly impact coastal fisheries worldwide and such problems should be managed as an interconnected network of land use change, oceanic ecosystems, and economic systems that are considered an integrated socio-ecological system.

Description: Glacial retreat creates new habitat which is colonised and developed by plants and animals during the process of primary succession. While there has been much debate about the relative role of deterministic and stochastic processes during terrestrial succession, evidence from freshwater ecosystems remains minimal and a general consensus is lacking. Using a unique 27 year record of community assembly following glacial recession in southeast Alaska, we demonstrate significant change in the trait composition of stream invertebrate communities as catchment glacial cover decreased from 〉70% to zero. Functional diversity increased significantly as glacier cover decreased and taxonomic richness increased. Null modelling approaches led to a key finding that niche filtering processes were dominant when glacial cover was extensive, reflecting water temperature and dispersal constraints. Thereafter the community shifted towards co-occurrence of stochastic and deterministic assembly processes. A further novel discovery was that intrinsic functional redundancy developed throughout the study, particularly because new colonisers possessed similar traits to taxa already present. Rapid glacial retreat is occurring in Arctic and alpine environments worldwide and the assembly processes observed in this study provide new fundamental insights into how glacially influenced stream ecosystems will respond. These findings support tolerance as a key primary successional mechanism in this system, and have broader value for developing our understanding of how biological communities in river ecosystems assemble or restructure in response to environmental change.

Description: Few studies exist on infiltration processes in badlands, although infiltration and subsurface lateral flows are known to contribute to soil erosion and to control slope instability. Our investigation was carried out in a 100 m² plot located in a 0.5 ha landslide in black marls (South-East France). An artificial sprinkling was performed with an intensity of 10 mm.h -1 during 66.4 h interrupted with 8.4 h. breaks. KBr and KCl were used as tracers. A pseudo-steady state was reached after 25-35 hours and 250-350 mm of rainfall. The runoff coefficient was 40% (ratio total runoff volume/total sprinkling water amount). Pre-event water (PE) contributed to the groundwater recharge at the very beginning of the experiment but PE contribution dropped steadily while the soil was saturating. After around 200 mm cumulative rainfall, PE contribution started to rise steeply before reaching a nearly constant value. This original mechanism implies an efficient transfer process of PE. It was assumed from the description of the material structure and from hydrological evidences that PE was mainly drained from a structure porosity made of the marl's flaked nature. Total pre-event water contributions ranged from 25 to 79 % (PE contribution was over 50 % in 2/3 of the observations wells). Over the recession phase, release of pre-event water occurred from the drainage of a texture porosity. The study showed that at the plot scale, infiltration processes proved well organised despite the high heterogeneity and anisotropy of the material. It was possible to propose a general conceptual model explaining the hydrological processes over time and area. The peculiar structure of regolith originating from black marl is preserved over a large part of the weathering time, so that the material structure (type, orientation of grains, small/large pores) remains a first order control of water flow generation in Black marl soils. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: In this work, the multifractal properties of hourly rainfall data recorded at a location in Southern Spain have been related to the scale properties of the corresponding Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Four parametric models for the IDF curves have been fitted to the quantiles of rainfall obtained by using the Generalized Pareto frequency distribution function with the extreme data series obtained for the same place. The scaling of the rainfall intensity moments has been analysed and the empirical moments scaling exponent function has been obtained. The corresponding values of q 1 and γ 1 have been empirical and theoretically calculated and compared to some characteristics of the different IDF models. Thus, the scaling behaviour of IDF curves has been analysed and the best model has been selected. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Editorial “Advances in Earth observation for water cycle science” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 543-549, 2012 Author(s): D. Fernández-Prieto, P. van Oevelen, Z. Su, and W. Wagner

Description: Major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural crop production are nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions resulting from the application of mineral and organic fertiliser, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from soil carbon losses. Consequently, choice of fertiliser type, optimising fertiliser application rates and timing, reducing microbial denitrification and improving soil carbon management are focus areas for mitigation. We have integrated separate models derived from global data on fertiliser induced soil N 2 O emissions, soil nitrification inhibitors, and the effects of tillage and soil inputs of soil C stocks into a single model in order to determine optimal mitigation options as a function of soil type, climate, and fertilisation rates. After Monte Carlo sampling of input variables we aggregated the outputs according to climate, soil and fertiliser factors to consider the benefits of several possible emissions mitigation strategies, and identified the most beneficial option for each factor class on a per hectare basis. The optimal mitigation for each soil-climate-region was then mapped to propose geographically specific optimal GHG mitigation strategies for crops with varying N requirements. The use of empirical models reduces the requirements for validation (since they are calibrated on globally or continentally observed phenomena). However, since they are relatively simple in structure, they may not be applicable for accurate site specific prediction of GHG emissions. The value of this modelling approach is for initial screening and ranking of potential agricultural mitigation options and to explore the potential impact of regional agricultural GHG abatement policies. Given the clear association between management practice and crop productivity, it is essential to incorporate characterisation of the yield effect on a given crop before recommending any mitigation practice.

Description: As part of the Mercury Experiment to Assess Atmospheric Loading in Canada and the U.S. (METAALICUS), different stable Hg(II) isotope spikes were applied to the upland and wetland areas of a boreal catchment between 2001 and 2006 to examine retention of newly deposited Hg(II). In the present study, a Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based approach was used to quantify canopy and ground vegetation pools of experimentally applied upland and wetland spike Hg within the METAALICUS watershed over the terrestrial loading phase of the experiment. A chemical kinetic model was also used to describe the changes in spike Hg concentrations of canopy and ground vegetation over time. An examination of the fate of spike Hg initially present on canopy vegetation using a mass balance approach indicated that the largest percentage flux from the canopy over one year post-spray was emission to the atmosphere (upland: 45%; wetland: 71%), followed by litterfall (upland: 14%; wetland: 10%) and throughfall fluxes (upland: 12%; wetland: 9%) and longer term retention of spike in the forest canopy (11% for both upland and wetland). Average half-lives (t1/2) of spike on deciduous (110 ± 30 days) and coniferous (180 ± 40 days) canopy and ground vegetation (890 ± 620 days) indicated that retention of new atmospheric Hg(II) on terrestrial (especially ground) vegetation delays downward transport of new atmospheric Hg(II) into the soil profile and runoff into lakes.

Description: River monitoring from satellite radar altimetry in the Zambezi River Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3203-3235, 2012 Author(s): C. I. Michailovsky, S. McEnnis, P. A. M. Berry, R. Smith, and P. Bauer-Gottwein Satellite radar altimetry can be used to monitor surface water levels from space. While current and past altimetry missions were designed to study oceans, retracking the waveforms returned over land allows data to be retrieved for smaller water bodies or narrow rivers. In this study, retracked Envisat altimetry data was extracted over the Zambezi River Basin using a detailed river mask based on Landsat imagery. This allowed for stage measurements to be obtained for rivers down to 80 m wide with an RMSE relative to in situ levels of 0.32 to 0.72 m at different locations. The altimetric levels were then converted to discharge using three different methods adapted to different data-availability scenarios: first with an in situ rating curve available, secondly with one simultaneous field measurement of cross-section and discharge, and finally with only historical discharge data available. For the two locations at which all three methods could be applied the accuracies of the different methods were found to be comparable, with RMSE values ranging from 5.5 to 7.4 % terms of high flow estimation relative to in situ gauge measurements. The precision obtained with the different methods was analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations and also showed comparable values for the three approaches with standard deviations found between 8.2 and 25.8 % of the high flow estimates.

Description: Water management simulation games and the construction of knowledge Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3063-3085, 2012 Author(s): M. Rusca, J. Heun, and K. Schwartz In recent years simulations have become an important part of teaching activities. The reasons behind the popularity of simulation games are twofold. On the one hand, emerging theories on how people learn have called for an experienced-based learning approach. On the other hand, the demand for water management professionals has changed. Three important developments are having considerable consequences for water management programmes, which educate and train these professionals. These developments are the increasing emphasis on integration in water management, the characteristics and speed of reforms in the public sector and the shifting state-society relations in many countries. In response to these developments, demand from the labour market is oriented toward water professionals who need to have both a specialist in-depth knowledge in their own field, as well as the ability to understand and interact with other disciplines and interests. In this context, skills in negotiating, consensus building and working in teams are considered essential for all professionals. In this paper we argue that simulation games have an important role to play in (actively) educating students and training the new generation of water professionals to respond to the above-mentioned challenges. At the same time, simulations are not a panacea for learners and teachers. Challenges of using simulations games include the demands it places on the teacher. Setting up the simulation game, facilitating the delivery and ensuring that learning objectives are achieved requires considerable knowledge and experience as well as considerable time-inputs of the teacher. Moreover, simulation games usually incorporate a case-based learning model, which may neglect or underemphasize theories and conceptualization. For simulations to be effective they have to be embedded in this larger theoretical and conceptual framework. Simulations, therefore, complement rather than substitute traditional teaching methods.

Description: Evaluation of a complementary based model for mapping land surface evapotranspiration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3029-3062, 2012 Author(s): Z. Sun, Q. Wang, Z. Ouyang, and Y. Yang A modified Priestley-Taylor (P-T) equation was proposed by Venturini et al. (2008) to map actual evapotranspiration (ET) based solely on satellite remote sensing data, involving a parameter based on a scaled temperature between dew point temperature and surface temperature. In this study, however, theoretical analyses and field experimental evidence show that it is hard to obtain this scaled temperature using dew point temperature and surface temperature. This study also presents a new parameterization method using air temperature, surface temperature, and surface temperature of a reference dry surface. The actual ET estimates obtained by means of our proposed parameterization method are validated at a site scale, and a case study is conducted to map actual ET from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer (ASTER) images using our proposed method. Results of ground-based validation and a case study of mapping ET using ASTER images indicate that the improvement on the modified P-T equation proposed by Venturini et al. (2008) can contribute to generating reliable actual ET.

Description: Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timing of glacier advance and retreat during the Younger Dryas or Loch Lomond Stade (LLS) in the Scottish Highlands. Some studies favour ice advance until near the end of the stade ( c. 11.7 ka), whereas others support the culmination of glacier advance in mid-stade ( c. 12.6–12.4 ka). Most published 10 Be exposure ages reported for boulders on moraines or deglacial sites post-date the end of the LLS, and thus appear to favour the former view, but recalibration of 33 10 Be ages using a locally derived 10 Be production rate and assuming rock surface erosion rates of zero to 1 mm ka −1 produces exposure ages 130–980 years older than those originally reported. The recalibrated ages are filtered to exclude anomalous data, and then employed to generate aggregate probability density distributions for the timing of moraine deposition and deglaciation. The results suggest that the most probable age for the timing of the deposition of the sampled outermost moraines lies in the interval 12.4–12.1 ka or earlier. Deglacial ages obtained for sites inside Loch Lomond Stadial glacier limits imply that glaciers at some or all of the sampled sites were retreating prior to 12.1 ka. Use of aggregated data does not exclude the possibility of asynchronous glacier behaviour at different sites, but confirms that some glaciers reached their maximum limits and began to retreat several centuries before the rapid warming that terminated the LLS at 11.7–11.6 ka, consistent with the retrodictions of recent numerical modelling experiments and with geomorphological evidence for gradual oscillatory ice-margin retreat under stadial conditions.

Description: Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 801-814, 2012 Author(s): J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, and T.-W. Kim This paper quantifies the transformed effectiveness of alternatives for watershed management caused by climate change and urbanization and prioritizes five options using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) were obtained by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the urbanization scenario by surveying the existing urban planning. The flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentration duration curves were derived, and the numbers of days required to satisfy the environmental flow requirement and the target BOD concentration were counted using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. In addition, five feasible alternatives were prioritized by using multi-criteria decision making techniques, based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework and cost component. Finally, a sensitivity analysis approach for MCDM methods was conducted to reduce the uncertainty of weights. The result indicates that the most sensitive decision criterion is cost, followed by criteria response, driving force, impact, state and pressure in that order. As it is certain that the importance of cost component is over 0.127, construction of a small wastewater treatment plant will be the most preferred alternative in this application.

Description: Climate change may considerably impact the carbon (C) dynamics and C stocks of forest soils. To assess the combined effects of warming and reduced precipitation on soil CO 2 efflux, we conducted a two-way factorial manipulation experiment (4 °C soil warming + throughfall exclusion) in a temperate spruce forest from 2008 until 2010. Soil was warmed by heating cables throughout the growing seasons. Soil drought was simulated by throughfall exclusions with three 100 m 2 roofs during 25 days in July/August 2008 and 2009. Soil warming permanently increased the CO 2 efflux from soil whereas throughfall exclusion led to a sharp decrease in soil CO 2 efflux (45% and 50% reduction during roof installation in 2008 and 2009, respectively). In 2008, CO 2 efflux did not recover after natural rewetting and remained lowered until autumn. In 2009, CO 2 efflux recovered shortly after rewetting, but relapsed again for several weeks. Drought offset the increase in soil CO 2 efflux by warming in 2008 (growing season CO 2 efflux in t C ha −1 : control: 7.1 ± 1.0; warmed: 9.5 ± 1.7; warmed + roof: 7.4 ± 0.3; roof: 5.9 ± 0.4) and in 2009 (control: 7.6 ± 0.8; warmed + roof: 8.3 ± 1.0). Throughfall exclusion mainly affected the organic layer and the top 5 cm of the mineral soil. Radiocarbon data suggest that heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration were affected to the same extent by soil warming and drying. Microbial biomass in the mineral soil (0 - 5 cm) was not affected by the treatments. Our results suggest that warming causes significant C losses from the soil as long as precipitation patterns remain steady at our site. If summer droughts become more severe in the future, warming induced C losses will likely be offset by reduced soil CO 2 efflux during and after summer drought.

Description: Major-ion compositions of groundwater are employed in this study of the water-rock interactions and hydrogeochemical evolution within a carbonate aquifer system. The groundwater samples were collected from boreholes or underground tunnels in the Ordovician limestone of Yanzhou Coalfield where catastrophic groundwater inflows can be hazardous to mining and impact use of the groundwater as a water supply. The concentration of TDS ranged from 961 to 3,555 mg/l and indicates moderately to highly mineralized water. The main water-type of the middle Ordovician limestone groundwater is Ca-Mg-SO 4 , with SO 4 2- ranging from 537 mg/l to 2,297 mg/l, and average values of Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ of 455.7 mg/l and 116.6 mg/l, respectively. The water samples were supersaturated with respect to calcite and dolomite and undersaturated or saturated with respect to gypsum. Along the general flow direction, deduced from increases of TDS and Cl - , the main water-rock interactions that caused hydrogeochemical evolution of the groundwater within the aquifer were the dissolution of gypsum, the precipitation of calcite, the dissolution or precipitation of dolomite, and ion exchange. Ion exchange is the major cause for the lower mole concentration of Ca 2+ than that of SO 4 2- . The groundwater level of Ordovician aquifer is much higher than that of C-P coal-bearing aquifers, so the potential flow direction is upward and the pyrite in coal is not a possible source of sulfate, additional data on the stable sulfur and oxygen isotopic composition of the sulfate may be helpful to identify its origin. Although ion exchange probably accounts for the higher mole concentration of Na + than that of Cl - , the dissolution of aluminosilicate can not be ruled out. The data evaluation methods and results of this study could be useful in other areas to understand flow paths in aquifers and to provide information needed to identify the origin of groundwater. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: We present a lake-wide investigation of Lake Superior carbon and organic matter biogeochemistry using radiocarbon, stable isotope, and carbon concentrations. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) abundance in the lake was 121–122 Tg C, with offshore concentration and δ13C values being laterally homogenous and tightly coupled to the physical and thermal regime and biochemical processes. Offshore Δ14C of DIC (50–65‰) exhibited lateral homogeneity and was more 14C enriched than co-occurring atmospheric CO2 (∼38‰); nearshore Δ14C of DIC (36–38‰) was similar to atmospheric CO2. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) abundance was 14.2–16.4 Tg C. DOC's concentration and δ13C were homogenous in June (mixed lake), but varied laterally during August (stratification) possibly due to spatial differences in lake productivity. Throughout sampling, DOC had modern radiocarbon values (14–58‰) indicating a semilabile nature with a turnover time of ≤60 years. Lake particulate organic carbon (POC, 0.9–1.3 Tg C) was consistently 13C depleted relative to DOC. The δ15N of epilimnetic particulate organic nitrogen shifted to more negative values during stratification possibly indicating greater use of nitrate (rather than ammonium) by phytoplankton in August. POC's radiocarbon was spatially heterogeneous (Δ14C range: 58‰ to −303‰), and generally 14C depleted relative to DOC and DIC. POC 14C depletion could not be accounted for by black carbon in the lake but, because of its spatial and temporal distribution, is attributed to sediment resuspension. The presence of old POC within the epilimnion of the open lake indicates possible benthic-pelagic coupling in the lake's organic carbon cycle; the ultimate fate of this old POC bears further investigation.

Description: Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in term of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro-climatic data from 4 catchments (i.e., Luanhe River Catchment, Chaohe River Catchment, Hutuo River Catchment and Zhanghe River Catchment) in the Haihe River Basin from 1957–2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e., runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Man-Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River Catchment was dominated by significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from −0.859 mm a -1 (Chaohe River) to −1.996 mm a -1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation-runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre-change period and post-change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro-climatic data during the pre-change period. And then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities were quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent to each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River Catchment, Chaohe River Catchment and Zhanghe River Catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, Climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River Catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Measurements of river water quality at Haridwar, India, taken during 2005 – 2006 show that the river water does not meet the WHO and Bureau of Indian Standards criteria of drinking water quality, especially with respect to total coliform and fecal-coliform. This study investigates the removal of pathogens at a river bank filtration (RBF) site in Haridwar. Using the quality of river water and the quality of abstracted water from a nearby production well, semi-empirical models based on the concept of filtration coefficient are developed and tested for their effectiveness in removing pathogens under varying bacteriological quality of source water. A two-tier model which includes the effect of clogged layer is developed to obtain an equivalent filtration coefficient. This coefficient is found to be linearly related with natural logarithm of the concentration of pathogens in the source water. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Nonpoint source pollution and hydromodification are the leading causes of impairment to our nation's rivers and streams. Roadside ditch networks, ubiquitous in both rural and urban landscapes, intercept and shunt substantial quantities of overland runoff and shallow groundwater to stream systems. By altering natural flowpaths, road ditches contribute not only to hydromodification but also potentially to nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution by acting as hydrologic links between agricultural fields and natural streams. Unfortunately, the impacts of these alterations on watershed hydrology and water quality are not well understood. Through a series of field measurements, including field surveys and discharge monitoring, this study examined the effect of road ditch networks on basin morphometry, field- and watershed-scale hydrology, and pollutant transport in a 38 km 2 agricultural watershed in south-central NY. Salient findings include: (i) 94% of road ditches discharged directly to natural streams, effectively doubling the drainage density, (ii) on average, road ditches increased peak and total event flows in their receiving streams by 78% and 57%, respectively, but displayed significant variation across ditches, (iii) ditches intercepted large quantities of surface and subsurface runoff from agricultural fields and therefore represent efficient conduits for the transport of agricultural NPS pollutants to sensitive receiving waterbodies. Our results provide useful information for hydrologists who wish to further understand how artificial drainage may be affecting watershed hydrology and for managers and engineers tasked with designing appropriate flood and NPS pollution control measures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: We coupled the process-based NIES Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model to an urban canopy model (UCM) and the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) in order to simulate the effect of urban geometry and anthropogenic exhaustion on the hydrothermal changes in the atmospheric/land and the interfacial areas of the Japanese megalopolis. The simulation was conducted with multi-scale in horizontally regional–urban–point levels, and in vertically atmosphere–surface–unsaturated–saturated layers. The model reproduced reasonably the observed hydrothermal values by using ground-truth data in various types of natural/artificial land covers. The simulated results also suggested that the latent heat flux in new water-holding pavement (consisting of porous asphalt and water-holding filler made of steel by-products based on silica compound) has a strong impact on hydrologic cycle and cooling temperature in comparison with the observed heat budget by newly incorporating the effect of water amount on the heat conductivity in the pavement. Furthermore, the model predicted the hydrothermal changes under two types of land cover scenarios to promote evaporation and to reduce air temperature against heat island phenomenon. Finally, we evaluated the relationship between the effect of groundwater use to ameliorate the heat island and the effect of infiltration on the water cycle in the catchment. These procedures to integrate the multi-scaled model simulation with political scenario based on the effective management of water resources as heat sink/source would be very powerful approaches to recovering a sound hydrologic cycle and create thermally-pleasing environments in the megalopolis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Soil and vadose zone profiles are used as an archive of changes in groundwater recharge and water quality following changes in land use in an area of the Loess Plateau of China. A typical rain-fed loess-terrace agriculture region in Hequan, Guyuan is taken as an example and multiple tracers (chloride mass balance, stable isotopes, tritium, and water chemistry) are used to examine groundwater recharge mechanisms and to evaluate soil water chloride as an archive for recharge rate and water quality. Results show that groundwater recharge beneath natural uncultivated grassland, used as a baseline, is about 94–100 mm yr -1 and the time it takes for annual precipitation to reach water table through the thick unsaturated zone is from decades to hundreds of years (tritium free). This recharge rate is 2–3 orders of magnitude more than in the other semiarid areas with similar annual rainfall and with deep rooted vegetation and relatively high temperature. Most of the water that eventually becomes recharge originally infiltrated in the summer months. The conversion from native grassland to winter wheat has reduced groundwater recharge by 42–50% (50–55 mm yr -1 for recharge), and from winter wheat to alfalfa resulted in a significant chloride accumulation in the upper soil zone which terminated deep drainage. The paper also evaluates the time lag between potential recharge and actual recharge to aquifer and between increase in solute concentration in soil moisture and that in the aquifer following land-use change due to the deep unsaturated zone. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Shallow upland drains, grips, have been hypothesized as responsible for increased downstream flow magnitudes. Observations provide counterfactual evidence, often relating to the difficulty of inferring conclusions from statistical correlation and paired catchment comparisons; and the complexity of designing field experiments to test grip impacts at the catchment-scale. Drainage should provide drier antecedent moisture conditions, providing more storage at the start of an event; but, grips have higher flow velocities than overland flow so potentially delivering flow more rapidly to the drainage network. We develop and apply a model for assessing the impacts of grips upon flow hydrographs. The model was calibrated on the gripped case; then the gripped case was compared with the intact case by removing all grips. This comparison showed that even given parameter uncertainty, the intact case had significantly higher flood peaks and lower baseflows, mirroring field observations of the hydrological response of intact peat. The simulations suggest that this is because delivery effects may not to translate into catchment-scale impacts for three reasons. First, in our case, the proportions of flow path lengths that were hillslope were not changed significantly by gripping. Second, the structure of the grip network as compared with the structure of the drainage basin mitigated against grip-related increases in the concentration of runoff in the drainage network, although it did marginally reduce the mean timing of that concentration at the catchment outlet. Third, the effect of the latter upon downstream flow magnitudes can only be assessed by reference to the peak timing of other tributary basins, emphasizing that drain effects are both relative and scale dependent. However, given the importance of hillslope flow paths, we show that if upland drainage causes significant changes in surface roughness on hillslopes, then critical and important feedbacks may impact upon the speed of hydrological response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Natural soil pipes are found in peatlands but little is known about their hydrological role. This paper presents the most complete set of pipe discharge data to date from a deep blanket peatland in northern England. In a 17.4-ha catchment, we identified 24 perennially-flowing and 60 ephemerally-flowing pipe outlets. Eight pipe outlets along with the catchment outlet were continuously gauged over an 18-month period. The pipes in the catchment were estimated to produce around 13.7 % of annual streamflow with individual pipes often producing large peak flows (maximum peak of 3.8 L s -1 ). Almost all pipes, whether ephemeral, perennially-flowing, shallow or deep (outlets 〉 1 m below the peat surface), showed increased discharge within a mean of 3 hours after rainfall commencement and were dominated by stormflow, indicating good connectivity between the peatland surface and the pipes. However, almost all pipes had a longer time period between hydrograph peak and return to baseflow compared to the stream (mean of 23.9 hours for pipes, 19.7 hours for stream). As a result, the proportion of streamflow produced by the pipes at any given time increased at low flows and formed the most important component of stream discharge for the lowest 10 % of flows. Thus, a small number of perennially-flowing pipes became more important to the stream system under low flow conditions and probably received water via matrix flow during periods between storms. Given the importance of pipes to streamflow in blanket peatlands, further research is required into their wider role in influencing stream-water chemistry, water temperature and fluvial carbon fluxes, as well as their role in altering local hydrochemical cycling within the peat mass itself. Enhanced piping within peatlands caused by environmental change may lead to changes in streamflow regime with larger low flows and more prolonged drainage of the peat. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: The hydrology of Quebec (Canada) boreal fens is poorly documented. Many peatlands are located in watersheds with impounded rivers. In such cases, their presence influences reservoir inflows. In recent years, some fens have been subjected to an increase of their wet area, a sign that they may be evolving towards an aquatic ecosystem. This dynamic process is referred to as aqualysis. This paper presents the seasonal and monthly hydrological budgets of a small watershed including a highly aqualysed fen (James Bay region). Monitoring of precipitation ( P ), runoff ( Q ) and groundwater levels ( WL ) was conducted during the ice-free season. Three semi-empirical equations (Thornthwaite, Priestley-Taylor and Penman-Monteith) were used and compared to calculate potential evapotranspiration ( PET ). The first two equations, having fewer parameters, estimate higher PET values than the third equation. The use of pressure level gauges installed in wells, for the calculation of peatland water storage, is inconclusive. Swelling of peat, peat decomposition and plant composition could be responsible for non-negligible amounts of absorbed water, which are not entirely accounted for by well levels. The estimation of peat matrix water storage is potentially the largest source of error and the limiting factor to calculate water balances in this environment. The results show that the groundwater level and the water storage vary depending on the season and especially after a heavy rainfall. Finally, the results illustrate the complexity of water routing through the site and, thus, raise several questions to be resolved in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Precipitation fields interpolated from gauge stations versus a merged radar-gauge precipitation product: influence on modelled soil moisture at local scale and at SMOS scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3385-3413, 2012 Author(s): J. T. dall'Amico, W. Mauser, F. Schlenz, and H. Bach For the validation of coarse resolution soil moisture products from missions such as the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, hydrological modelling of soil moisture is an important tool. The spatial distribution of precipitation is among the most crucial input data for such models. Thus, reliable time series of precipitation fields are required, but these often need to be interpolated from data delivered by scarcely distributed gauge station networks. In this study, a commercial precipitation product derived by Meteomedia AG from merging radar and gauge data is introduced as a novel means of adding the promising area-distributed information given by a radar network to the more accurate, but point-like measurements from a gauge station network. This precipitation product is first validated against an independent gauge station network. Further, the novel precipitation product is assimilated into the hydrological land surface model PROMET for the Upper Danube Catchment in southern Germany, one of the major SMOS calibration and validation sites in Europe. The modelled soil moisture fields are compared to those obtained when the operational interpolation from gauge station data is used to force the model. The results suggest that the assimilation of the novel precipitation product can lead to deviations of modelled soil moisture in the order of 0.15 m 3 m −3 on small spatial (∼1 km 2 ) and short temporal resolutions (∼1 day). As expected, after spatial aggregation to the coarser grid on which SMOS data are delivered (~195 km 2 ), these differences are reduced to the order of 0.04 m 3 m −3 , which is the accuracy benchmark for SMOS. The results of both model runs are compared to brightness temperatures measured by the airborne L-band radiometer EMIRAD during the SMOS Validation Campaign 2010. Both comparisons yield equally good correlations, confirming the model's ability to realistically model soil moisture fields in the test site. The fact that the two model runs perform similarly in the comparison is likely associated with the lack of substantial rain events before the days on which EMIRAD was flown.

Description: An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 815-831, 2012 Author(s): M. He, T. S. Hogue, S. A. Margulis, and K. J. Franz The current study proposes an integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation framework (ICEA) and evaluates its viability in providing operational streamflow predictions via assimilating snow water equivalent (SWE) data. This step-wise framework applies a parameter uncertainty analysis algorithm (ISURF) to identify the uncertainty structure of sensitive model parameters, which is subsequently formulated into an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to generate updated snow states for streamflow prediction. The framework is coupled to the US National Weather Service (NWS) snow and rainfall-runoff models. Its applicability is demonstrated for an operational basin of a western River Forecast Center (RFC) of the NWS. Performance of the framework is evaluated against existing operational baseline (RFC predictions), the stand-alone ISURF and the stand-alone EnKF. Results indicate that the ensemble-mean prediction of ICEA considerably outperforms predictions from the other three scenarios investigated, particularly in the context of predicting high flows (top 5th percentile). The ICEA streamflow ensemble predictions capture the variability of the observed streamflow well, however the ensemble is not wide enough to consistently contain the range of streamflow observations in the study basin. Our findings indicate that the ICEA has the potential to supplement the current operational (deterministic) forecasting method in terms of providing improved single-valued (e.g., ensemble mean) streamflow predictions as well as meaningful ensemble predictions.

Description: Advancing data assimilation in operational hydrologic forecasting: progresses, challenges, and emerging opportunities Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3415-3472, 2012 Author(s): Y. Liu, A. H. Weerts, M. Clark, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, S. Kumar, H. Moradkhani, D.-J. Seo, D. Schwanenberg, P. Smith, A. I. J. M. van Dijk, N. van Velzen, M. He, H. Lee, S. J. Noh, O. Rakovec, and P. Restrepo Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented into operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts to better inform real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, The Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical considerations in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modelling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.

Description: Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3339-3384, 2012 Author(s): B. Shrestha, M. S. Babel, S. Maskey, A. van Griensven, S. Uhlenbrook, A. Green, and I. Akkharath This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou Basin located in Northern Laos. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through a delta change approach. As per the results, in general, temperature as well as precipitation show increasing trends in both scenarios, A2 and B2. However, monthly precipitation shows both increasing and decreasing trends. The simulation results exhibit that the wet and dry seasonal and annual stream discharges are likely to increase (by up to 15, 17 and 14% under scenario A2; and 11, 5 and 10% under scenario B2 respectively) in the future, which will lead to increased wet and dry seasonal and annual sediment yields (by up to 39, 28 and 36% under scenario A2; and 23, 12 and 22% under scenario B2 respectively). A higher discharge and more sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the changes, percentage-wise, are observed to be higher during the dry months. In conclusion, the sediment yield from the Nam Ou Basin is likely to increase with climate change, which strongly suggests the need for basin-wide sediment management strategies in order to reduce the negative impact of this change.

Description: ABSTRACT Permafrost maps are needed for infrastructure planning, climatic change adaptation strategies and northern development but often lack sufficient detail for these purposes. The high-resolution (30 x 30 m grid cells) probability model for the southern Yukon and northern British Columbia presented in this paper (regional model) is a combination of seven local empirical-statistical models, each developed from basal temperature of snow measurements in winter and ground-truthing of frozen-ground presence in summer. The models were blended using a distance-decay power approach to generate a map of permafrost probability over an area of almost 500 000 km 2 between 59°N and 65°N. The result is broadly similar to previous permafrost maps with an average permafrost probability of 58 per cent for the region as a whole. There are notable differences in detail, however, because the main predictive variable used in the local models is equivalent elevation, which incorporates the effects of gentle or inverted surface lapse rates in the forest zone. Most of the region shows permafrost distribution patterns that are non-linear, resembling those from continental areas such as Mongolia. Only the southwestern area shows a similar mountain permafrost distribution to that in the European Alps with a well-defined lower limit and a linear increase in probability with elevation. The results of the modelling can be presented on paper using traditional classifications into permafrost zones but given the level of detail, they will be more useful as an interactive online map. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: ABSTRACT Four retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) located on Herschel Island and the Yukon coast (King Point) in the western Canadian Arctic were investigated to compare the environmental, sedimentological and geochemical setting and characteristics of zones in active and stabilised slumps and at undisturbed sites. In general, the slope, sedimentology and biogeochemistry of stabilised and undisturbed zones differ, independent of their age or location. Organic carbon contents were lower in slumps than in the surrounding tundra, and the density and compaction of slump sediments were much greater. Radiocarbon dating showed that RTS were likely to have been active around 300 a BP and are undergoing a similar period of increased activity now. This cycle is thought to be controlled more by local geometry, cryostratigraphy and the rate of coastal erosion than by variation in summer temperatures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Correcting the radar rainfall forcing of a hydrological model with data assimilation: application to flood forecasting in the Lez Catchment in Southern France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3527-3579, 2012 Author(s): E. Harader, V. Borrell Estupina, S. Ricci, M. Coustau, O. Thual, A. Piacentini, and C. Bouvier The present study explores the application of a data assimilation (DA) procedure to correct the radar rainfall inputs of an event-based, distributed, parsimonious hydrological model. A simplified Kalman filter algorithm was built on top of a rainfall-runoff model in order to assimilate discharge observations at the catchment outlet. The study site is the 114 km 2 Lez Catchment near Montpellier, France. This catchment is subject to heavy orographic rainfall and characterized by a karstic geology, leading to flash flooding events. The hydrological model uses a derived version of the SCS method, combined with a Lag and Route transfer function. Because it depends on geographical features and cloud structures, the radar rainfall input to the model is particularily uncertain and results in significant errors in the simulated discharges. The DA analysis was applied to estimate a constant correction to each event hyetogram. The analysis was carried out for 19 events, in two different modes: re-analysis and pseudo-forecast. In both cases, it was shown that the reduction of the uncertainty in the rainfall data leads to a reduction of the error in the simulated discharge. The resulting correction of the radar rainfall data was then compared to the mean field bias (MFB), a corrective coefficient determined using ground rainfall measurements, which are more accurate than radar but have a decreased spatial resolution. It was shown that the radar rainfall corrected using DA leads to improved discharge simulations and Nash criteria compared to the MFB correction.

Description: Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 3473-3525, 2012 Author(s): H. Sulzbacher, H. Wiederhold, B. Siemon, M. Grinat, J. Igel, T. Burschil, T. Günther, and K. Hinsby A numerical variable-density groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic survey (HEM), monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The variable-density groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in particular the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinization with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinization of the water supply until the end of the current century.

Description: A. Santi and A. Spiro The presentation of supergravity theories of our previous paper Super-Poincare algebras, space-times, and supergravities. I is re-formulated in the language of Berezin-Leites-Kostant theory of supermanifolds. It is also shown that the equations of Cremmer, Julia, and Scherk's theory of 11D-supergrav ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 032505 (2012)] published Wed Mar 14, 2012.

Description: Tong Zhou and Zuo-nong Zhu In this paper, soliton interactions in three semidiscrete integrable systems are studied. It will be shown that in some cases the solitary waves of the semidiscrete integrable systems can interact elastically, i.e., the shapes, the amplitudes, and the velocities of waves preserve after undergoing co ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 033507 (2012)] published Thu Mar 15, 2012.

Description: The concept of the sediment delivery problem was introduced into the literature in 1983 by Des Walling. This concept describes how only a fraction of sediment eroded within a catchment will reach the basin outlet and be represented as sediment yield, and that sediment storage mechanisms operating within a catchment explain this discrepancy. Since this paper was published, geomorphologists have been examining in great detail the fate of sediment eroded from the landsurface, and the pathways and timeframes of sediment transport and storage in catchments. However, to fully understand the internal dynamics of sediment flux requires a ‘fresh look at the sediment delivery problem’. A framework is required that can incorporate the various processes involved in sediment movement from source areas through a basin to its outlet, and can take account of the spatial distribution of, and timeframes over which, these processes operate. This paper presents a conceptual framework for analysis of catchment (dis)connectivity that incorporates both spatial and temporal variability in the operation of the sediment cascade. This approach examines where blockages occur to disrupt these longitudinal, lateral and vertical linkages in catchments. Depending on the position of blockages (termed buffers, barriers and blankets), and their sediment residence time, various parts of a catchment may be actively contributing sediment to the sediment cascade and be switched on, or inactive and switched off. This paper discusses how such a framework can be used to model response times to disturbance and explain the manifestation of geomorphic change in catchments. The paper then highlights challenges geomorphologists face in applying such a framework to understand the internal dynamics of the catchment sediment cascades, and forecast how environmental change might affect the operation of sediment fluxes into the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Ikaite crystals in melting sea ice – implications for p CO 2 and pH levels in Arctic surface waters The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 1015-1035, 2012 Author(s): S. Rysgaard, R. N. Glud, K. Lennert, M. Cooper, N. Halden, R. J. G. Leakey, F. C. Hawthorne, and D. Barber A major issue of Arctic marine science is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean is, or will be, a source or sink for air-sea CO 2 exchange. This has been complicated by the recent discoveries of ikaite (CaCO 3 ·6H 2 O) in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, which indicate that multiple chemical transformations occur in sea ice with a possible effect on CO 2 and pH conditions in surface waters. Here we report on biogeochemical conditions, microscopic examinations and x-ray diffraction analysis of single crystals from an actively melting 1.7 km 2 (0.5–1 m thick) drifting ice floe in the Fram Strait during summer. Our findings show that ikaite crystals are present throughout the sea ice but with larger crystals appearing in the upper ice layers. Ikaite crystals placed at elevated temperatures gradually disintegrated into smaller crystallites and dissolved. During our field campaign in late June, melt reduced the ice flow thickness by ca. 0.2 m per week and resulted in an estimated 1.6 ppm decrease of p CO 2 in the ocean surface mixed layer. This corresponds to an air-sea CO 2 uptake of 11 mmol m −2 sea ice d −1 or to 3.5 ton km −2 ice floe week −1 .

Description: Accounting for seasonality in a soil moisture change detection algorithm for ASAR Wide Swath time series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 773-786, 2012 Author(s): J. Van doninck, J. Peters, H. Lievens, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest A change detection algorithm is applied on a three year time series of ASAR Wide Swath images in VV polarization over Calabria, Italy, in order to derive information on temporal soil moisture dynamics. The algorithm, adapted from an algorithm originally developed for ERS scatterometer, was validated using a simple hydrological model incorporating meteorological and pedological data. Strong positive correlations between modelled soil moisture and ASAR soil moisture were observed over arable land, while the correlation became much weaker over more vegetated areas. In a second phase, an attempt was made to incorporate seasonality in the different model parameters. It was observed that seasonally changing surface properties mainly affected the multitemporal incidence angle normalization. When applying a seasonal angular normalization, correlation coefficients between modelled soil moisture and retrieved soil moisture increased overall. Attempts to account for seasonality in the other model parameters did not result in an improved performance.

Description: Emissions of the trace gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O) play an important role for the greenhouse effect and stratospheric ozone depletion, but the impacts of climate change on N 2 O fluxes and the underlying microbial drivers remain unclear. The aim of this study was to determine effects of sustained climate change on field N 2 O fluxes and associated microbial enzymatic activities, microbial population abundance and community diversity in an extensively managed, upland grassland. We recorded N 2 O fluxes, nitrification and denitrification, microbial population size involved in these processes and community structure of nitrite reducers ( nir K) in a grassland exposed for four years to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (+ 200 ppm), elevated temperature (+ 3.5°C) and reduction of summer precipitations (-20%) as part of a long-term, multifactor climate change experiment. Our results showed that both warming and simultaneous application of warming, summer drought and elevated CO 2 had a positive effect on N 2 O fluxes, nitrification, N 2 O release by denitrification and the population size of N 2 O reducers and NH 4 oxidizers. In situ N 2 O fluxes showed a stronger correlation with microbial population size under warmed conditions compared with the control site. Specific lineages of nir K denitrifier communities responded significantly to temperature. In addition, nir K community composition showed significant changes in response to drought. Path analysis explained more than 85% of in situ N 2 O fluxes variance by soil temperature, denitrification activity and specific denitrifying lineages. Overall, our study underlines that climate-induced changes in grassland N 2 O emissions reflect climate-induced changes in microbial community structure, which in turn modify microbial processes.

Description: Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change requires spatially and temporally rich data for a diverse set of species and habitats, combined with models that test and predict responses. Yet current work is hampered by the long-known problems of inadequate management of data and insufficient description of analytical procedures, especially in the field of ecology. Despite recent institutional incentives to share data and new data archiving infrastructure, many ecologists do not archive and publish their data and code. Given current rapid rates of global change, the consequences of this are extreme: because an ecological dataset collected at a certain place and time represents an irreproducible set of observations, ecologists doing local, independent research possess, in their file cabinets and spreadsheets, a wealth of information about the natural world and how it is changing. Although large-scale initiatives will increasingly enable and reward open science, we believe that change demands action and personal commitment by individuals—from students and PIs. Here, we outline the major benefits of sharing data and analytical procedures in the context of global change ecology, and provide guidelines for overcoming common obstacles and concerns. If individual scientists and labs can embrace a culture of archiving and sharing we can accelerate the pace of the scientific method and redefine how local science can most robustly scale up to globally-relevant questions.

Description: Changes in C 4 grass distribution and abundance are frequently observed in Quaternary, Holocene and future environmental-change scenarios. However, the factors driving these dynamics are not fully understood, and conflicting theories have been reported. In this paper, we present a very large dataset of modern altitudinal distribution profiles of C 3 and C 4 grasses covering the entire Neotropical Andes, which was compared with actual climate data. The results of multivariate analysis demonstrate that, in the Neotropical Andes, mean annual temperature is the main factor governing the modern altitudinal distribution of C 3 and C 4 grass species. The C 3 and C 4 grass distributions were compared with simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), which allowed the present grass distribution to be estimated. Finally, the DGVM was employed to simulate past and future scenarios, using the IPCC's climate projections for 2100 and PMIP2 models for the Holocene Optimum (HO, 6000 yrs BP) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 yrs BP). The results were found to be significantly different to those obtained using a simple photosynthetic model. According to LPJ forced with the PMIP2 models for the LGM, during the LGM, the C 4 grasses would not have reached higher altitudes than found in the present day.

Description: Gus Gutoski The present paper studies an operator norm that captures the distinguishability of quantum strategies in the same sense that the trace norm captures the distinguishability of quantum states or the diamond norm captures the distinguishability of quantum channels. Characterizations of its unit ball an ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 032202 (2012)] published Wed Mar 14, 2012.

Description: Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: example in Swiss Alps Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 615-629, 2012 Author(s): C. Michoud, M.-H. Derron, P. Horton, M. Jaboyedoff, F.-J. Baillifard, A. Loye, P. Nicolet, A. Pedrazzini, and A. Queyrel Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Description: Li Ren, Qiang Mu, and Yongzheng Zhang The natural filtrations of hamiltonian superalgebras of formal vector fields are proved to be invariant under their automorphism group, by determining the set of ad-quasi-nilpotent elements. Thereby, the automorphism group of these Lie superalgebras are determined. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 033506 (2012)] published Thu Mar 15, 2012.

Description: Evolution of skewness and kurtosis of weakly nonlinear unidirectional waves over a sloping bottom Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 631-638, 2012 Author(s): H. Zeng and K. Trulsen We consider the effect of slowly varying depth on the values of skewness and kurtosis of weakly nonlinear irregular waves propagating from deeper to shallower water. It is known that the equilibrium value of kurtosis decreases with decreasing depth for waves propagating on constant depth. Waves propagating over a sloping bottom must continually adjust toward a new equilibrium state. We demonstrate that weakly nonlinear waves may need a considerable horizontal propagation distance in order to adjust to a new shallower environment, therefore the kurtosis can be notably different from the equilibrium value for each corresponding depth both on top of and beyond a bottom slope. A change of depth can provoke a wake-like spatially non-uniform distribution of kurtosis on the lee side of the slope. As an application, we anticipate that the probability of freak waves on or near the edge of the continental shelf may exhibit a rather complicated spatial structure for wave fields entering from deep sea.

Description: Corrigendum to "Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation" published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 157–170, 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 267-267, 2012 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, C. Bouvier, P.-A. Ayral, and A. Marchandise No abstract available.

Description: Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater–surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Description: As a result of global changes, shifts of alpine tree lines towards higher elevations have been recorded, but the role of the spatial variability of the snowpack and zonal-pattern soil-nutrient regimes is poorly understood. Norway spruce ( Picea abies (L.) Karst) is best suited to fertile soils, and hence we applied soil physical-chemical and snow measurements and the age chronology of Norway spruce along an elevational gradient (380–557 m a.s.l.) to address a vertical soil zonality hypothesis on mafic Lommoltunturi fell in Finnish Lapland. With regard to increasing elevation, we found an increase in soil N TOT , C TOT and Al , but a decrease in soil Ca , Mg and Ca : Al ratio as well as in electrical conductivity (EC). In addition, the snowpack was significantly thicker in low-elevation forest than in the tree line and open tundra. In the 1840s, spruce established on low-elevation soils with a Ca : Al ratio of 2.2. Starting from the 1920s a significant shift of spruce occurred such that it took 60 years to expand the tree line by 55 m in elevation. The spruce tree line has advanced, and the age distribution indicates new colonization of spruce in closed forest up to tundra. The poor soil Ca : Al ratio of 0.02 on tundra apparently is a constraint for spruce. Spruce forest is young (〈165 years), and hence we argue that spruce has expanded onto formerly tree-free sites of this mafic fell. This paper demonstrates that vertical soil zonality is a potential driver for the diffuse tree line of Picea abies on mafic Fennoscandian fells.

Description: An unusually deep (961 hPa) hurricane-like polar low over the Barents Sea during 18–21 December 2002 is studied by a series of fine-mesh (3 km) experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulated polar low was similar to hurricanes and similar previous case-studies in that it had a clear, calm and warm eye structure surrounded by moist convection organized in spiral cloud bands, and the highest surface wind speeds were found in the eye wall. The proximity to the sea ice and the high surface wind speeds (about 25 m s −1 ) during the deepening stage triggered extremely high surface sensible and latent heat fluxes at the eye wall of about 1200 and 400 W m −2 , respectively. As the polar low moved eastward and weakened, maximum surface sensible and latent heat fluxes dropped to about 600 and 300 W m −2 , respectively. Two types of sensitivity experiments were designed to analyse the physical properties of the polar low. Firstly, physical processes such as condensational heating and sensible and/or latent heat fluxes were switched off–on throughout the simulation. In the second type, these processes were turned off–on after the polar low had reached its peak intensity, which minimized the deformation of the polar-low environment, making it suitable to study the direct effect of physical processes on the mature vortex. The experiments suggest that the deepening stage of the polar low was dominated by baroclinic growth and that upper-level potential vorticity forcing contributed throughout its life cycle. After the deepening stage, the baroclinicity vanished and the polar low was fuelled by surface sensible heat fluxes while latent heat fluxes played a minor role. Condensational heating was not essential for the energetics of the polar low. Surprisingly, in experiments where condensational heating was turned off throughout the simulation, the polar low intensified. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Correlation functions associated with the inverse covariances represented by polynomials of the homogeneous diffusion operator D are obtained analytically for an arbitrary polynomial of D, constrained by the positive-definiteness condition of the covariance operator. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The structure, evolution and dynamics of two lower stratospheric frontal zones are examined from a basic state variables perspective. The case studies highlight the asynchronous evolution of the lower stratospheric and upper tropospheric frontal portions of upper level jet-front (ULJF) systems, as well as some substantial differences in lower stratospheric frontal development that occur in southwesterly and northwesterly flow. The evolution of the ULJF in northwesterly flow was characterized by an initially intense but weakening lower stratospheric front along with an initially weak but intensifying upper tropospheric front. Throughout the evolution, geostrophic cold air advection in cyclonic shear characterized a substantial portion of the lower stratospheric front. This circumstance supported subsidence through the local jet core within the cold upper troposphere, weakening the lower stratospheric front via tilting. This subsidence extended downward below the jet core where it is suggested to have played a role in the early stages of upper tropospheric frontogenesis. In the southwesterly flow case, the evolution of the ULJF was characterized by a strengthening lower stratospheric front and a weakening upper tropospheric front. A deep column of upward vertical motion resulted from the superposition of lower tropospheric ascent associated with convection along a surface cold front and upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric (UTLS) ascent through the jet core coincident with geostrophic warm air advection in cyclonic shear along large sections of the lower stratospheric front. The UTLS ascent, located on the cold edge of the lower stratospheric baroclinicity, served to intensify the lower stratospheric frontal zone via tilting. The implications of these lower stratospheric frontal processes on the topography of the tropopause and downstream sensible weather are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: This paper examines the weathering processes that have combined to produce the distribution of soil-regolith (SR) thickness across the Triassic Sherwood Sandstone Group outcrop (750 km 2 ) in Nottinghamshire, U.K. Archive borehole logs (n = 282) taken across the outcrop showed that soil-regolith thickness had mean and median depths of ~1.8 and 1.5 m respectively. Cores were taken from a forested site to depths ~3 m for geochemical analysis. At this site the SR thickness was ~1.7 m. Analysis of the loss of elements, compared to bedrock using mass balance calculations (τ) showed that all the calcite and gypsum cement had been removed to depths of 〉3 m. Thus the major difference between the SR and the underlying saprolite was that the former exists as loose sand as opposed to a semi-durable rock. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis of core samples suggested that the non-durable rock or saprolite had greater cementation of clay particles. We propose that the mechanism through which the clay cement (and other interlocking grain bonds) were eased apart was through freeze-thaw processes associated with the summer ‘active layer development’ during the last glacial activity in the UK. We tested this theory by developing a Monte Carlo simulation based on a simplified version of the Stefan Equation. Current Arctic datasets of air and ground temperatures were obtained to provide reasonable starting conditions for input variables. These were combined with known data for thermal conductivity, bulk density and moisture content of the Sherwood Sandstone regolith. Model predictions (n = 1000) of the distribution of SR thickness accurately reflect the observed distribution thickness from the borehole logs. This is strong evidence that freeze-thaw and ‘ALD’ processes are major factors in determining the thickness of SR across this outcrop. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Physically-based modeling of topographic effects on spatial evapotranspiration and soil moisture patterns through radiation and wind Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 357-373, 2012 Author(s): M. Liu, A. Bárdossy, J. Li, and Y. Jiang In this paper, simulations with the Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP) model are performed to quantify the spatial variability of both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture content (SMC) caused by topography-induced spatial wind and radiation differences. To obtain the spatially distributed ET/SMC patterns, the field scale SWAP model is applied in a distributed way for both pointwise and catchment wide simulations. An adapted radiation model from r.sun and the physically-based meso-scale wind model METRAS PC are applied to obtain the spatial radiation and wind patterns respectively, which show significant spatial variation and correlation with aspect and elevation respectively. Such topographic dependences and spatial variations further propagate to ET/SMC. A strong spatial, seasonal-dependent, scale-relevant intra-catchment variability in daily/annual ET and less variability in SMC can be observed from the numerical experiments. The study concludes that topography has a significant effect on ET/SMC in the humid region where ET is a energy limited rather than water availability limited process. It affects the spatial runoff generation through spatial radiation and wind, therefore should be applied to inform hydrological model development. In addition, the methodology used in the study can serve as a general method for physically-based ET estimation for data sparse regions.

Description: Wlodzimierz Natorf We generalize the result of Lukacs et al. on asymptotic stability of the Schwarzschild metric with respect to perturbations in the Robinson-Trautman class of metrics to the case of Petrov type II twisting metrics, under the condition of asymptotic flatness at future null infinity. The Bondi energy i ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 022503 (2012)] published Tue Feb 7, 2012.

Description: Denis Borisov and Giuseppe Cardone We consider a planar waveguide with twisted boundary conditions. By twisting we mean a special combination of Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. Assuming that the width of the waveguide goes to zero, we identify the effective (limiting) operator as the width of the waveguide tends to zero, e ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 023503 (2012)] published Tue Feb 7, 2012.

Description: Chang-Guang Shi and Minoru Hirayama An application of the equation proposed by the present authors, which is equivalent to the static field equation of the Faddeev model, is discussed. Under some assumptions on the space and on the form of the solution, the field equation is reduced to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation of sec ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 022301 (2012)] published Tue Feb 7, 2012.

Description: The importance of parameter resampling for soil moisture data assimilation into hydrologic models using the particle filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 375-390, 2012 Author(s): D. A. Plaza, R. De Keyser, G. J. M. De Lannoy, L. Giustarini, P. Matgen, and V. R. N. Pauwels The Sequential Importance Sampling with Resampling (SISR) particle filter and the SISR with parameter resampling particle filter (SISR-PR) are evaluated for their performance in soil moisture assimilation and the consequent effect on baseflow generation. With respect to the resulting soil moisture time series, both filters perform appropriately. However, the SISR filter has a negative effect on the baseflow due to inconsistency between the parameter values and the states after the assimilation. In order to overcome this inconsistency, parameter resampling is applied along with the SISR filter, to obtain consistent parameter values with the analyzed soil moisture state. Extreme parameter replication, which could lead to a particle collapse, is avoided by the perturbation of the parameters with white noise. Both the modeled soil moisture and baseflow are improved if the complementary parameter resampling is applied. The SISR filter with parameter resampling offers an efficient way to deal with biased observations. The robustness of the methodology is evaluated for 3 model parameter sets and 3 assimilation frequencies. Overall, the results in this paper indicate that the particle filter is a promising tool for hydrologic modeling purposes, but that an additional parameter resampling may be necessary to consistently update all state variables and fluxes within the model.

Description: Kazuhide Matsuda We completely classify the rational solutions of the Noumi and Yamada system of type A, which is a generalization of the fourth Painleve equation. The rational solutions are classified to three by the Backlund transformation group. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 023504 (2012)] published Wed Feb 8, 2012.

Description: Evolution of marine storminess in the Belgian part of the North Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 305-312, 2012 Author(s): D. Van den Eynde, R. De Sutter, and P. Haerens Severe storms have affected European coast lines in the past but knowledge on changes in storminess for the last decades is still sparse. Climate change is assumed to be a main driving factor with the potential to induce changes on the intensity, duration and frequency of powerful marine storms, including a long-term influence on peak wind speeds, surges and waves. It is, therefore, important to investigate whether in the last decades changes in the magnitude of storms, their duration and frequency could be observed. Understanding trends in storminess in the last decades will help to better prepare coastal managers for future events, taking into account potential changes on storm occurrence and magnitude to improve planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The purpose of this study was to focus on the evolution of extreme wind conditions, wave height and storm surge levels in the North Sea Region, especially in the Belgian part of the North Sea (BPNS). Based on the analysis performed it is concluded that no clear trend can be observed for the occurrence of significant increasing extreme wind speeds over the BPNS. Furthermore, one can conclude that not enough scientific evidence is available to support scenarios with increased wave height or storminess.

Description: An efficient approach is developed to analytically evaluate solute transport in a horizontal, divergent radial flow field with a multistep injection flow rate and an arbitrary input concentration history. By assuming a piecewise steady state flow and transforming the time domain to the cumulative injected flow domain, the concentration distribution is found to be completely determined by the total volume of injected flow and independent of specific flow rates. Thus, on the cumulative flow domain, the transport problem with a temporally varying velocity field can be transformed into a steady state flow problem. Linear convolution can then be applied on the cumulative injected flow domain to evaluate the solution for an arbitrarily time-dependent input concentration. Solutions on the regular time domain can be conveniently obtained by mapping the solution on the cumulative injected flow domain to the time domain. Furthermore, we theoretically examine the conditions for the assumption of piecewise steady state flow to be valid. On the basis of the critical time scale of the “pseudosteady state condition,” defined as when velocity changes accomplish 99% of their steady state differences, and the relative error in the mean travel time of plume front, we obtain conditions for neglecting the transitional period between two pumping steps. Such conditions include the following: (1) the duration of a pumping step, tp, must be longer than the critical time scale, tc, i.e., tp ≥ tc = 25r2S/T, where r is the radial distance, S is the storage coefficient, and T is the transmissivity, or similarly, a maximum problem domain needs to be defined for a given pumping strategy. (2) the maximum well pumping rate, qmax, should satisfy qmax ≤ πθT/25S, where θ is the effective porosity. When both conditions are satisfied, transitional periods may be neglected.

Description: Inferring snow pack ripening and melt out from distributed ground surface temperature measurements The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 563-591, 2012 Author(s): M.-O. Schmid, S. Gubler, J. Fiddes, and S. Gruber The seasonal snow cover and its melting are heterogeneous both in space and time. Describing and modelling this variability are important because it affects divers phenomena such as runoff, ground temperatures or slope movements. This study investigates the derivation of melting characteristics based on spatial clusters of temperature measurements. Results are based on data from Switzerland where ground surface temperatures were measured with miniature loggers (iButtons) at 40 locations, referred to as footprints. At each footprint, ten iButtons have been distributed randomly few cm below the ground surface over an area of 10 m × 10 m. Footprints span elevations of 2100–3300 m a.s.l. and slope angles of 0–55°, as well as diverse slope expositions and types of surface cover and ground material. Based on two years of temperature data, the basal ripening date and the melt-out date are determined for each iButton, aggregated to the footprint level and further analysed. The date of melt out could be derived for nearly all iButtons, the ripening date could be extracted for only approximately half of them because it requires ground freezing below the snow pack. The variability within a footprint is often considerable and one to three weeks difference between melting or ripening of the points in one footprint is not uncommon. The correlation of mean annual ground surface temperatures, ripening date and melt-out date is moderate, making them useful intuitive complementary measured for model evaluation.

Description: Meander bends in alluvial rivers morphologically evolve toward meander cutoff with narrowing intra-meander necks, and this should steepen hydraulic gradients and intensify intra-meander hyporheic flux. This research used dye tracking and head loss measurements in a 1:500 planimetrically scaled laboratory river table to quantify the spatial and temporal intensification of intra-meander flux rates at two evolution ages. The younger meander bend, M1, had a sinuosity of 2.3, a river neck width of 0.39 cm, and 0.6% river slope, and the older meander bend, M3, had a sinuosity of 5.2, a river neck width of 0.12 cm, and 0.5% river slope. Flux into and out of the meander bend was estimated along the normalized curvilinear distance s *, with the meander neck at s * = 0.1 and s * = 0.9, the meander centroid at s * = 0.37 and s * = 0.63, and the apex at s * = 0.5. Between the meander centroid and neck we documented a 60% spatial intensification for M1 and a 90% spatial intensification for M3. Between M1 and M3 we documented a 135% temporal intensification at the neck and a 100% intensification at the centroid. Our empirical spatial and temporal intensification rates involving the M1 and the M3 scenario were 1 to 3 times lower than theoretical rates derived from a river evolution model with equivalent M1 and M3 planimetry. Over estimation by the theoretical model was attributed to exaggerated head loss caused by the model neglecting groundwater contributions to river stage. Hyporheic exchange provides critical ecosystem services and its spatial and temporal variation with meander evolution should be considered in river management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Watershed models which combine hydrology and water quality are being widely utilized in integrated watershed management for the determination of best water management practices. In this study, the hydrology of the Lower Porsuk Stream Watershed in Turkey has been modeled with SWAT to determine optimal water management strategies. The calibration and validation process have been accomplished using data from two monitoring stations. The model has been run for the 1978–2009 period and while the 1998–2004 period has been used for calibration, the validation has spanned the whole period. The SWATCup calibration and uncertainity program has been utilized for this purpose. No significant differences have been detected among different iteration numbers in the calibration period. The monthly Nash-Sutcliffe and R 2 performance indicatiors for the upstream Esenkara station have been 0.74 and 0.88, respectively for the calibration period, and 0.87 and 0.87, respectively for the validation period. The Kıranharmanı station which is located close to the watershed outlet has shown values of 0.59 and 0.72, respectively for the calibration period, and 0.44 and 0.56, respectively for the validation period. There are uncertanities in the abstracted irrigation and groundwater quantities which have reflected in the results in the Kıranharmanı station which is more affected as it lies downstream of the irrigation areas. The effects of different irrigation practices on the flow regime have been also investigated. A scenario has been implemented in which drip irrigation wholly replaces conventional furrow and sprinkler irrigation. The scenario has shown increases in stream flows by 87 % for the whole year. The adoption of more efficient irrigation practices thus results in reducing the water stress induced by irrigation demands. With this study a modeling framework has been founded to aid water management applications in the Lower Porsuk Stream Watershed by generating scenarios for best management practices. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Moving beyond traditional model calibration or how to better identify realistic model parameters: sub-period calibration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 1885-1918, 2012 Author(s): S. Gharari, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, and H. H. G. Savenije Conceptual hydrological models often rely on calibration for the identification of their parameters. As these models are typically designed to reflect real catchment processes, a key objective of an appropriate calibration strategy is the determination of parameter sets that reflect a "realistic" model behavior. Previous studies have shown that parameter estimates for different calibration periods can be significantly different. This questions model transposability in time, which is one of the key conditions for the set-up of a "realistic" model. This paper presents a new approach that selects parameter sets that provide a consistent model performance in time. The approach consists of confronting model performance in different periods, and selecting parameter sets that are as close as possible to the optimum of each individual sub-period. While aiding model calibration, the approach is also useful as a diagnostic tool, illustrating tradeoffs in the identification of time consistent parameter sets. The approach is demonstrated in a case study where we illustrate the multi-objective calibration of the HyMod hydrological model to a Luxembourgish catchment.

Description: Technical Note: Analytical sensitivity analysis of a two parameter recursive digital baseflow separation filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 451-455, 2012 Author(s): K. Eckhardt A sensitivity analysis for a well-established baseflow separation technique, a two parameter recursive digital filter, is presented. The sensitivity of the calculated baseflow index to errors or uncertainties of the two filter parameters and of the initial baseflow value is analytically ascertained. It is found that the influence of the initial baseflow value is negligible for long time series. The propagation of errors or uncertainties of the two filter parameters into the baseflow index is expressed by a dimensionless sensitivity index, the ratio between the relative error of the baseflow index and the relative error of the respective parameter. Representative index values are derived by application of the resulting equations to 65 North American catchments. In the mean the parameter a , the recession constant, has a stronger influence on the calculated baseflow index than the second filter parameter BFI max . This is favourable in that a can be determined by a recession analysis and therefore should be less uncertain. Whether this finding also applies for a specific catchment can easily be checked by means of the derived equations.

Description: Tian Zhou Xu In this paper, we study the stability of the multi-Jensen mappings in non-Archimedean normed spaces. The results improve and extend some recent results. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 023507 (2012)] published Mon Feb 13, 2012.

Description: Stefano De Leo and Gisele Ducati In looking for quaternionic violations of quantum mechanics, we discuss the delay time for pure quaternionic potentials. Our study shows the energy region which amplifies the difference between quaternionic and complex quantum mechanics. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 022102 (2012)] published Mon Feb 13, 2012.

Description: Samuel Friot and David Greynat Multiple Mellin-Barnes integrals are often used for perturbative calculations in particle physics. In this context, the evaluation of such objects may be performed through residues calculations which lead to their expression as multiple power series and logarithms of the parameters involved in the p ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 023508 (2012)] published Mon Feb 13, 2012.

Description: The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 313-325, 2012 Author(s): C. Samimi, A. H. Fink, and H. Paeth During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population.

Description: Factors selection in landslide susceptibility modelling on large scale following the gis matrix method: application to the river Beiro basin (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 327-340, 2012 Author(s): D. Costanzo, E. Rotigliano, C. Irigaray, J. D. Jiménez-Perálvarez, and J. Chacón A procedure to select the controlling factors connected to the slope instability has been defined. It allowed us to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Rio Beiro basin (about 10 km 2 ) over the northeastern area of the city of Granada (Spain). Field and remote (Google EarthTM) recognition techniques allowed us to generate a landslide inventory consisting in 127 phenomena. To discriminate between stable and unstable conditions, a diagnostic area had been chosen as the one limited to the crown and the toe of the scarp of the landslide. 15 controlling or determining factors have been defined considering topographic, geologic, geomorphologic and pedologic available data. Univariate tests, using both association coefficients and validation results of single-variable susceptibility models, allowed us to select the best predictors, which were combined for the unique conditions analysis. For each of the five recognised landslide typologies, susceptibility maps for the best models were prepared. In order to verify both the goodness of fit and the prediction skill of the susceptibility models, two different validation procedures were applied and compared. Both procedures are based on a random partition of the landslide archive for producing a test and a training subset. The first method is based on the analysis of the shape of the success and prediction rate curves, which are quantitatively analysed exploiting two morphometric indexes. The second method is based on the analysis of the degree of fit, by considering the relative error between the intersected target landslides by each of the different susceptibility classes in which the study area was partitioned. Both the validation procedures confirmed a very good predictive performance of the susceptibility models and of the actual procedure followed to select the controlling factors.

Description: ABSTRACT Rock instability is believed to be causally linked to permafrost degradation, but it is difficult to demonstrate this directly because of the short record of slope failures in high mountains. While abductive scientific reasoning of ‘increasing permafrost-related instability’ based on the short time frame of recorded rockfall events in high mountains is still difficult, our deductive systemic understanding points toward a strong process linkage between permafrost degradation and rock instability. Enhanced technical understanding of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and systemic geomorphic understanding of rock slope adjustment in space and over (reaction/relaxation) time are required to accurately predict hazards associated with the impact of climate change on permafrost in bedrock. We identify research needs in four major areas and at the interfaces between them: rock temperature measurement and modelling; remote sensing of rock walls; process understanding of rock mass instability; and flow propagation models of rock-ice avalanches. This short communication identifies key interfaces between research directions to gain a better understanding of trajectories of destabilisation in time and space. We propose coordinated systemic research with respect to scale dependent and transient thermal behaviour, coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical understanding, enhanced remote inventorying of rock wall instability and integrated approaches for a better understanding and modelling of mixed avalanches. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Impact of spatial resolution on the modelling of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance between 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 635-672, 2012 Author(s): B. Franco, X. Fettweis, C. Lang, and M. Erpicum With the aim to force an ice dynamical model, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) was modelled at different spatial resolutions (15–50 km) for the period 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. This comparison revealed that (i) the inter-annual variability of the SMB components is consistent within the different spatial resolutions investigated, (ii) the MAR model simulates heavier precipitation on average over the GrIS with diminishing spatial resolution, and (iii) the SMB components (except precipitation) can be derived from a simulation at lower resolution with an ''intelligent'' interpolation. This interpolation can also be used to approximate the SMB components over another topography/ice sheet mask of the GrIS. These results are important for the forcing of an ice dynamical model, needed to enable future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea level rise over the coming centuries.

Description: Large surface meltwater discharge from the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet during the record-warm year 2010 explained by detailed energy balance observations The Cryosphere, 6, 199-209, 2012 Author(s): D. van As, A. L. Hubbard, B. Hasholt, A. B. Mikkelsen, M. R. van den Broeke, and R. S. Fausto This study uses data from six on-ice weather stations, calibrated MODIS-derived albedo and proglacial river gauging measurements to drive and validate an energy balance model. We aim to quantify the record-setting positive temperature anomaly in 2010 and its effect on mass balance and runoff from the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet. In 2010, the average temperature was 4.9 °C (2.7 standard deviations) above the 1974–2010 average in Kangerlussuaq. High temperatures were also observed over the ice sheet, with the magnitude of the positive anomaly increasing with altitude, particularly in August. Simultaneously, surface albedo was anomalously low in 2010, predominantly in the upper ablation zone. The low albedo was caused by high ablation, which in turn profited from high temperatures and low winter snowfall. Surface energy balance calculations show that the largest melt excess (∼170%) occurred in the upper ablation zone (above 1000 m), where higher temperatures and lower albedo contributed equally to the melt anomaly. At lower elevations the melt excess can be attributed to high atmospheric temperatures alone. In total, we calculate that 6.6 ± 1.0 km 3 of surface meltwater ran off the ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq catchment in 2010, exceeding the reference year 2009 (based on atmospheric temperature measurements) by ∼150%. During future warm episodes we can expect a melt response of at least the same magnitude, unless a larger wintertime snow accumulation delays and moderates the melt-albedo feedback. Due to the hypsometry of the ice sheet, yielding an increasing surface area with elevation, meltwater runoff will be further amplified by increases in melt forcings such as atmospheric heat.

Description: Many observations and studies have shown that water resources amount in the Hai River Basin decreased significantly over the last half of the twentieth century. This study attempts to attribute the observed changes in the water resources amount in the basin over a 40 year period (1961–2000) to different factors, including natural climate variability, climate change induced by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gas emissions (referred to as anthropogenic forcing hereafter), and local human activity. First, the temporal variation of the annual water resources amount in the basin during the past 40 years is analyzed by employing the moving-average method, the linear regression method, and the Mann-Kendall method. Second, through setting different scenarios, the effects on the water resources amount due to different factors, including natural climate variability, anthropogenic forcing, and local human activity, are obtained using the parallel climate model, the distributed hydrological model water and energy transfer processes in large river basins, and the statistical downscaling model. Third, the fingerprint-based attribution method is used to obtain the signal strengths of observed changes in water resources amount during 1961–2000 and changes in the water resources amount under different scenarios. Finally, by comparing the signal strengths, the observed changes in water resources amount in the basin can be attributed to different factors. The results indicate that natural climate variability and local human activity may be two factors responsible for the observed changes in the water resources amount during the past 40 years in the basin, with local human activity being the main factor and accounting for about 60% of the changes.

Description: Mechanisms to mitigate global climate change by sequestering carbon (C) in different ‘sinks’ have been proposed as at least temporary measures. Of the major global C pools, terrestrial ecosystems hold the potential to capture and store substantially increased volumes of C in soil organic matter (SOM) through changes in management that are also of benefit to the multitude of ecosystem services that soils provide. This potential can only be realised by determining the amount of SOM stored in soils now, with subsequent quantification of how this is affected by management strategies intended to increase SOM concentrations, and used in soil C models for the prediction of the roles of soils in future climate change. An apparently obvious method to increase C stocks in soils is to augment the soil C pools with the longest mean residence times (MRT). Computer simulation models of soil C dynamics, e.g. RothC and Century, partition these refractory constituents into slow and passive pools with MRTs of centuries to millennia. This partitioning is assumed to reflect (i) the average biomolecular properties of SOM in the pools with reference to their source in plant litter, (ii) the accessibility of the SOM to decomposer organisms or catalytic enzymes, or (iii) constraints imposed on decomposition by environmental conditions, including soil moisture and temperature. However, contemporary analytical approaches suggest that the chemical composition of these pools is not necessarily predictable because, despite considerable progress with understanding decomposition processes and the role of decomposer organisms, along with refinements in simulation models, little progress has been made in reconciling biochemical properties with the kinetically-defined pools. In this review, we will explore how advances in quantitative analytical technologies have redefined the new understanding of SOM dynamics and how this is impacting on the development and application of new modelling approaches to soil C.

Description: It is often assumed that daytime patterns of ecosystem carbon assimilation are mostly driven by direct physiological responses to exogenous environmental cues. Under limited environmental variability, little variation in carbon assimilation should thus be expected unless endogenous plant controls on carbon assimilation, which regulate photosynthesis in time, are active. We evaluated this assumption with eddy flux data, and we selected periods when net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was decoupled from environmental variability in seven sites from highly contrasting biomes across a 74º latitudinal gradient over a total of 36 site-years. Under relatively constant conditions of light, temperature, and other environmental factors, significant diurnal NEE oscillations were observed at six sites, where daily NEE variation was between 20% and 90% of that under variable environmental conditions. These results are consistent with fluctuations driven by the circadian clock and other endogenous processes. Our results open a promising avenue of research for a more complete understanding of ecosystem fluxes that integrates from cellular to ecosystem processes.

Description: Investigating riparian groundwater flow close to a losing river using diurnal temperature oscillations at high vertical resolution Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 473-487, 2012 Author(s): T. Vogt, M. Schirmer, and O. A. Cirpka River-water infiltration is of high relevance for hyporheic and riparian groundwater ecology as well as for drinking water supply by river-bank filtration. Heat has become a popular natural tracer to estimate exchange rates between rivers and groundwater. However, quantifying flow patterns and velocities is impeded by spatial and temporal variations of exchange fluxes, insufficient sensors spacing during field investigations, or simplifying assumptions for analysis or modeling such as uniform flow. The objective of this study is to investigate lateral shallow groundwater flow upon river-water infiltration at the shoreline of the riverbed and in the adjacent riparian zone of the River Thur in northeast Switzerland. Here we have applied distributed temperature sensing (DTS) along optical fibers wrapped around tubes to measure high-resolution vertical temperature profiles of the unsaturated zone and shallow riparian groundwater. Diurnal temperature oscillations were tracked in the subsurface and analyzed by means of dynamic harmonic regression to extract amplitudes and phase angles. Subsequent calculations of amplitude attenuation and time shift relative to the river signal show in detail vertical and temporal variations of heat transport in shallow riparian groundwater. In addition, we apply a numerical two-dimensional heat transport model for the unsaturated zone and shallow groundwater to obtain a better understanding of the observed heat transport processes in shallow riparian groundwater and to estimate the groundwater flow velocity. Our results show that the observed riparian groundwater temperature distribution cannot be described by uniform flow, but rather by horizontal groundwater flow velocities varying over depth. In addition, heat transfer of diurnal temperature oscillations from the losing river through shallow groundwater is influenced by thermal exchange with the unsaturated zone. Neglecting the influence of the unsaturated zone would cause biased interpretation and underestimation of groundwater flow velocities. The combination of high resolution field data and modeling shows the complex hydraulic and thermal processes occurring in shallow riparian groundwater close to losing river sections as well as potential errors sources for interpreting diurnal temperature oscillations in such environments.

Description: Impacts of inhomogeneous landscapes in oasis interior on the oasis self-maintaining mechanism by integrating numerical model with satellite data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 1979-2004, 2012 Author(s): X. Meng, S. Lu, T. Zhang, Y. Ao, S. Li, Y. Bao, L. Wen, and S. Luo Mesoscale meteorological modeling is an important tool to help understand the energy budget of the oasis. While basic dynamic and thermodynamic processes for oasis self-maintaining in the desert environment is well investigated, influence of heterogeneous landscapes of oasis interior on the processes are still important and remain to be investigated. In this study, two simulations are designed for investigating the influence of inhomogeneity. In the first case, land surface parameters including land-use types, vegetation cover fraction, and surface layer soil moisture are derived by satellite remote sensing data from EOS/MODIS, and then be used specify the respective options in the MM5 model, to describe a real inhomogeneity for the oasis interior. In the other run, land use types are set to MM5 default, in which landscapes in the oasis interior is relative uniform, and then surface layer soil moisture and vegetation fraction is set to be averages of the first case for the respective oasis and desert surface lying, to represent a relative homogeneity. Results show that the inhomogeneity leads to a weaker oasis "cold-wet island" effect and a stronger turbulence over the oasis interior, both of which will reduce the oasis-desert secondary circulation and increase the evaporation over the oasis, resulting in a negative impact on the oasis self-protecting mechanism. The simulation of homogeneity indicates that the oasis may be more stable even with relative lower soil moisture if landscapes in the oasis interior are comparatively uniform.

Description: Random walk models of fluvial sediment transport recognize that grains move intermittently, with short duration steps separated by rests that are comparatively long. These models are built upon the probability distributions of the step length and the resting time. Motivated by these models, tracer experiments have attempted to measure directly the steps and rests of sediment grains in natural streams. This paper describes results from a large tracer experiment designed to test stochastic transport models. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags to label 893 coarse gravel clasts and placed them in Halfmoon Creek, a small alpine stream near Leadville, Colorado, USA. The PIT tags allow us to locate and identify tracers without picking them up or digging them out of the streambed. They also enable us to find a very high percentage of our rocks, 98% after three years and 96% after the fourth year. We use the annual tracer displacement to test two stochastic transport models, the Einstein-Hubbell-Sayre model (EHS) and the Yang and Sayre gamma-exponential model (GEM). We find that the GEM is a better fit to the observations, particularly for slower moving tracers and suggest that the strength of the GEM is that the gamma distribution of step lengths approximates a compound Poisson distribution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Flood events can induce temporal changes in streambed elevation and particle-size composition, which may influence the bed's hydraulic properties and stream-aquifer fluxes during and after an event. This study combines a set of previously developed modeling approaches to create a synthetic flood event during which bed sediment is entrained and deposited as a function of hydraulic conditions and particle size. One simulated river reach in a state of approximate dynamic equilibrium is chosen to investigate the impacts of size-selective sediment transport on stream-aquifer interaction. Along this reach, the preferential entrainment of fine sediment during the flood's rising limb leads to overall bed coarsening, and increases in vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kbv) and downward fluxes of floodwater into the streambed. Progressively finer sediment layers are deposited during the event's falling limb, causing the redevelopment of a colmation (clogging) layer on the bed surface and a decline in overall Kbv by the event's conclusion. This reduction in Kbv leads to prolonged retention of event water in the streambed (after the reach reverts from losing to gaining river conditions) when compared with what is expected if pre-event Kbv values are used to estimate river-aquifer exchanges. This process of sequential bed coarsening and fining during a flood event provides a mechanistic explanation for the event size-and-duration threshold, inferred in some systems, that must be exceeded for significant amounts of flood recharge to occur. The major consequences of these processes—enhanced infiltration and prolonged floodwater retention—have potentially major implications for groundwater-surface water interactions, water quality, contaminant transport, and riparian biogeochemistry.

Description: Nonstationary oscillation (NSO) processes are observed in a number of hydroclimatic data series. Stochastic simulation models are useful to study the impacts of the climatic variations induced by NSO processes into hydroclimatic regimes. Reproducing NSO processes in a stochastic time series model is, however, a difficult task because of the complexity of the nonstationary behaviors. In the current study, a novel stochastic simulation technique that reproduces the NSO processes embedded in hydroclimatic data series is presented. The proposed model reproduces NSO processes by utilizing empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and nonparametric simulation techniques (i.e., k-nearest-neighbor resampling and block bootstrapping). The model was first tested with synthetic data sets from trigonometric functions and the Rössler system. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was then examined as a real case study. This NAO index was then employed as an exogenous variable for the stochastic simulation of streamflows at the Romaine River in the province of Quebec, Canada. The results of the application to the synthetic data sets and the real-world case studies indicate that the proposed model preserves well the NSO processes along with the key statistical characteristics of the observations. It was concluded that the proposed model possesses a reasonable simulation capacity and a high potential as a stochastic model, especially for hydroclimatic data sets that embed NSO processes.

Description: Vegetation zonation and tidal hydrology are basic attributes of intertidal salt marshes, but specific links among vegetation zonation, plant water use, and spatiotemporally dynamic hydrology have eluded thorough characterization. We developed a quantitative model of an intensively studied salt marsh field site, integrating coupled 2-D surface water and 3-D groundwater flow and zonal plant water use. Comparison of model scenarios with and without heterogeneity in (1) evapotranspiration rates and rooting depths, according to mapped vegetation zonation, and (2) sediment hydraulic properties from inferred geological heterogeneity revealed the coupled importance of both sources of ecohydrological variability at the site. Complex spatial variations in root zone pressure heads, saturations, and vertical groundwater velocities emerged in the model but only when both sources of ecohydrological variability were represented together and with tidal dynamics. These regions of distinctive root zone hydraulic conditions, caused by the intersection of vegetation and sediment spatial patterns, were termed “ecohydrological zones” (EHZ). Five EHZ emerged from different combinations of sediment hydraulic properties and evapotranspiration rates, and two EHZ emerged from local topography. Simulated pressure heads and groundwater dynamics among the EHZ were validated with field data. The model and data showed that hydraulic differences between EHZ were masked shortly after a flooding tide but again became prominent during prolonged marsh exposure. We suggest that ecohydrological zones, which reflect the combined influences of topographic, sediment, and vegetation heterogeneity and do not emphasize one influence over the others, are the fundamental spatial habitat units comprising the salt marsh ecosystem.

Description: Uncertainty in future solid ice discharge from Antarctica The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 673-714, 2012 Author(s): R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, K. Frieler, and M. A. Martin Future solid ice discharge from Antarctica under climate scenarios based on the Extended Concentration Pathways is investigated with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), a shallow model with a consistent representation of the ice flow in sheet, shelves and the transition zone. Both the uncertainty in the climate forcing as well as the intra-model uncertainty are combined into a probability distribution for solid ice discharge from Antarctica until the year 2500 under the ECP scenarios: All simulations are performed for a 81-member perturbed-physics ensemble and the likely ranges of surface and ocean warming under the emission pathways derived from the results of 20 CMIP3-AOGCMS. The effects of surface warming, ocean warming and increased precipitation on solid ice discharge are separately considered. We find that solid ice discharge caused by enhanced sub-shelf melting exceeds that caused by surface warming. Increasing precipitation leads to a change from net sea-level rise to sea-level drop. Our results suggest that the history of the ice-sheet plays an important role with respect to projections of solid ice discharge. Although all climate-change-forced simulations begin with the year 1850, the ice discharge around 2000 is significantly smaller than observed. Observed changes in ice discharge are reached around 2077 under the ECP-8.5 scenario. During the subsequent century, ice discharge reaches up to 0.24 m.

Description: H. Hassanabadi, E. Maghsoodi, S. Zarrinkamar, and H. Rahimov Approximate analytical solutions of spin and pseudospin symmetry limits of Dirac equation are reported for the generalized Poschl-Teller scalar and vector potentials and a Coulomb tensor interaction by Nikiforov-Uvarov method. On the contrary to the cumbersome numerical procedures, the analytical ap ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 022104 (2012)] published Wed Feb 15, 2012.

Description: Floodwater utilisation values of wetland services – a case study in Northeastern China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 341-349, 2012 Author(s): S. B. Lü, S. G. Xu, and F. Feng Water plays a significant role in wetlands. Floodwater utilisation in wetlands brings a wide range of wetland services, from goods production and water regulation to animal protection and aesthetics related to water supply in wetlands. In this study, the floodwater utilisation values of wetland services were estimated within the Momoge wetland and Xianghai wetland in western Jilin province of northeastern China. From 2003 to 2008, the floodwater diverted from the Nenjiang and Tao'er River is 381 million m 3 , which translates into a monetary value of approximately 1.35 billion RMB in 2008 (RMB: Chinese Currency, RMB 6.80 = US$ 1), and the ratio of economic value, eco-environmental value, and social value is 1:12:2. Besides the monetary value of the water itself, excessive floodwater utilisation may bring losses to wetlands; the threshold floodwater utilisation volumes in wetlands are discussed. Floodwater utilisation can alleviate water shortages in wetlands, and the evaluation of floodwater utilisation in wetland services in monetary terms is a guide for the effective use of the floodwater resources and for the conservation of wetlands.

Description: ABSTRACT Russia's West Siberian Lowland (WSL) contains the most extensive peatlands on Earth with many underlain by permafrost. We present a new database of 12 705 measurements of vertical water content and bulk soil properties from 98 permafrost and non-permafrost cores collected in raised bogs and peat plateaus across the region, together with in-situ measurements of surface moisture and thaw depth, botanical descriptions of dominant surface vegetation species assemblage, and field notes. Data analyses reveal significant contrasts ( p  〈 0.01 to p  〈 0.0001) between permafrost and non-permafrost sites. On average, permafrost WSL peatlands exhibit drier surfaces, shallower depth, lower organic matter content and higher bulk density than do non-permafrost sites. Peat bulk density and ash-free density increase with depth for non-permafrost but not for permafrost sites. Gravimetric water content averages 92.0% near the surface and 89.3% at depth in non-permafrost, but 81.6% and 85.4%, respectively, in permafrost, suggesting that the disappearance of permafrost could produce moister surfaces across the WSL. GIS extrapolation of these results suggests that WSL peatlands may contain ~1200 km 3 of water and ice, a large storage equivalent to ~2-m average liquid water depth and approximately three times the total annual flow in the Ob' River. A global estimate of ~6900-km 3 subsurface water storage for all northern peatlands suggests a volume comparable to or greater than the total water storage in northern lakes. The database is freely available as supplementary material for scientific use. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Tamaghna Hazra, V. K. Chandrasekar, R. Gladwin Pradeep, and M. Lakshmanan General solutions of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are in general difficult to find; although, powerful integrability techniques exist in the literature for this purpose. It has been shown that in some scalar cases particular solutions may be found with little effort if it is poss ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 023511 (2012)] published Wed Feb 15, 2012.

Description: The Lumen Gini Coefficient: a satellite imagery derived human development index Social Geography Discussions, 8, 27-59, 2012 Author(s): C. D. Elvidge, K. E. Baugh, S. J. Anderson, P. C. Sutton, and T. Ghosh The "Lumen Gini Coefficient" is a simple, objective, spatially explicit and globally available empirical measurement of human development derived solely from nighttime satellite imagery and population density. There is increasing recognition that the distribution of wealth and income amongst the population in a nation or region correlates strongly with both the overall happiness of that population and the environmental quality of that nation or region. Measuring the distribution of wealth and income at national and regional scales is an interesting and challenging problem. Gini coefficients derived from Lorenz curves are a well-established method of measuring income distribution. Nonetheless, there are many shortcomings of the Gini coefficient as a measure of income or wealth distribution. Gini coefficients are typically calculated using national level data on the distribution of income through the population. Such data are not available for many countries and the results are generally limited to single values representing entire countries. In this paper we develop an alternative measure of the distribution of "human development", called the "Lumen Gini coefficient", that is derived without the use of monetary measures of wealth and is capable of providing a spatial depiction of differences in development within countries.

Description: In recent decades, copula functions have been applied in bivariate drought duration and severity frequency analysis. Among a number of potential copulas, Clayton has been mostly employed in drought analysis. In this research, we study the influence of the tail shape of various copula functions (i.e. Gumbel, Frank, Clayton, and Gaussian) on drought bivariate frequency analysis. The appropriateness of Clayton copula for the characterization of drought characteristics is also investigated. Drought data are extracted from standardized precipitation index (SPI) time series for four stations in Canada (La Tuque and Grande Prairie) and Iran (Anzali and Zahedan). Both duration and severity datasets are positively skewed. Different marginal distributions were first fitted to drought duration and severity data. The gamma and exponential distributions were respectively selected for drought duration and severity according to the positive skewness and Kolmogorov- Smirnov test. The results of copula modeling show that the Clayton copula function is not an appropriate choice for the employed datasets in the current study, and does not give more drought risk information than an independent model for which the duration and severity dependence is not significant. The reason is that the dependence of two variables in the upper tail of Clayton copula is very weak and similar to the independent case, while the observed data in the transformed domain of cumulative density function shows high association in the upper tail. Instead, the Frank and Gumbel copula functions show better performance than Clayton function for drought bivariate frequency analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.