ALBERT

Description: New light is shed on Worthington's concept of the North Atlantic circulation, postulating the existence of two anticyclonic gyres. This concept, which seems to have been laid to rest in the last decade, has now been reinforced by the results of a simple linear Sverdrup circulation model yielding a band of westward transport all across the North Atlantic at about the Azores latitude. This narrow band is called the Azores Countercurrent (AzCC) and matches the position of westward flow required by Worthington's “northern gyre.” An anomaly in the meridional change of the wind-stress curl in the eastern North Atlantic has been identified as the driving mechanism. A comparison with observations shows that the AzCC is verified in many analyses of historical datasets and synoptic surveys. A lack of the AzCC in other analyses is probably due to missing meridional sections, strong smoothing, and the superimposed Ekman flow close to the sea surface directed to the southeast. The AzCC has not been verified in low-resolution general circulation models applying simplified wind-stress fields and large friction coefficients, but there is evidence for its existence in recent high-resolution models driven by realistic wind stresses. Based on these findings, a new pattern for the wind-driven upper ocean circulation of the midlatitude North Atlantic is presented.

Description: A sigma-coordinate, primitive equation ocean circulation model is used to explore the problem of the remnant generation of trapped waves about a tall, circular, isolated seamount by an incident oscillatory barotropic current. The numerical solutions are used to extend prior studies into the fully nonlinear regime, and in particular to quantify and interpret the occurrence of residual circulation. Specific attention is also devoted to the dependence of the resonance and rectification mechanisms on stratification, forcing frequency, and choice of subgrid-scale viscous closure. Resonantly generated trapped waves of significant amplitude are found to occur broadly in parameter space; a precise match between the frequency of the imposed incident current and the frequency of the trapped free wave is not necessary to produce substantial excitation of the trapped wave. The maximum amplification factors produced in these numerical solutions, O(100) times the strength of the incident current, are consistent with previous studies. In the presence of nonlinear advection, strong residual currents are produced. The time-mean circulation about the seamount is dominated by a strong bottom-intensified, anticyclonic circulation closely trapped to the seamount. Maximum local time-mean current amplitudes are found to be as large as 37% of the magnitude of the propagating waves. In addition to the strong anticyclonic residual flow, there is a weaker secondary circulation in the vertical-radial plane characterized by downwelling over the top of the seamount at all depths. Maximum vertical downwelling rates of several tens of meters per day occur at the summit of the seamount. The vertical mass flux implied by this systematic downwelling is balanced by a slow radial flux of mass directed outward along the flanks of the seamount. Time-mean budgets for the radial and azimuthal components of momentum show that horizontal eddy fluxes of momentum are responsible for transporting net radial and azimuthal momentum from the far field to the upper flanks of the seamount. There, Coriolis and pressure gradient forces provide the dominant balances in the radial direction. However, the Coriolis force and viscous effects provide the primary balance for the azimuthal component.

Description: The total transport of Antarctic Bottom Water across the Rio Grande Rise, including the western boundary, the Vema Channel, and the Hunter Channel is estimated from hydrographic measurements across these pathways. The contribution of the Vema Channel is greatest at 3.9 × 106 m3 s−1, which is very close to earlier estimates. The western boundary current contribution is 2.0 × 106 m3 s−1 and that of the Hunter Channel 0.7 × 106 m3 s−1. The lower values outside the Vema Channel are offset by the important source of mass they form to the lower density classes of bottom water. About 40% of the flow is concentrated in the highest density class representing the source of Weddell Sea Deep Water to the Brazil Basin. The flow structure is characterized by horizontal and vertical recirculation.

Description: The space-time structure and predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated. Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and the other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO-related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle involving slow propagation in the equatorial oceanic beat content and the surface wind field. The existence of this cycle implies the ability of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions.

Description: A hybrid coupled model (HCM) of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system is described. The ocean component is a fully nonlinear ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The atmospheric element is a statistical model that specifies wind stress from ocean-model sea surface temperatures (SST). The coupled model demonstrates a chaotic behavior during extended integration that is related to slow changes in the background mean state of the ocean. The HCM also reproduces many of the observed variations in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. The physical processes operative in the model together describe a natural mode of climate variability in the tropical Pacific ocean–atmosphere system. The mode is composed of (i) westward-propagating Rossby waves and (ii) an equatorially confined air–sea element that propagates eastward. Additional results showed that the seasonal dependence of the anomalous ocean–atmosphere coupling was vital to the model's ability to both replicate and forecast key features of the tropical Pacific climate system. A series of hindcast and forecast experiments was conducted with the model. It showed real skill in forecasting fall/winter tropical Pacific SST at a lead time of up to 18 months. This skill was largely confined to the central equatorial Pacific, just the region that is most prominent in teleconnections with the Northern Hemisphere during winter. This result suggests the model forecasts of winter SST at leads times of at least 6 months are good enough to be used with atmospheric models (statistical or OGCM) to attempt long-range winter forecasts for the North American continent. This suggestion is confirmed in Part II of this paper.

Description: A 26-year integration has been performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). The oceanic part resolves all three oceans in the latitude band 70°N–70°S but is dynamically active only between 30°N and 30°S. The atmosphere is represented by a global low-order spectral model. The coupled model was forced by seasonally varying insolation. Although the simulated time-averaged mean conditions in both atmosphere and ocean show significant deviations from the observed climatology, the CGCM realistically simulates the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. In particular, the CGCM simulates an irregular ENSO with a preferred time scale of about 3 years. The mechanism for the simulated interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is related to both the “delayed action oscillator” and the “slow SST mode.” It therefore appears likely that either both modes can coexist or they degenerate to one mode within certain locations of the parameter space. This hypothesis is also supported by calculations performed with simplified coupled models, in which the atmospheric GCM was replaced by linear steady-state atmosphere models. Further, evidence is found for an eastward migration of zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific prior to the extremes of the simulated ENSO, indicating a link to circulation systems over Asia. Because an earlier version of the CGCM did not simulate interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, additional experiments with a simplified coupled model have been conducted to study the sensitivity of coupled systems to varying mean oceanic background conditions. It is shown that even modest changes in the background conditions can push the coupled system from one flow regime into another.

Description: Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

Description: Ocean deep velocity profiles were obtained by lowering a self-contained 153.6-kHz acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a CTD-rosette sampler. The data were sampled during two Meteor cruises in the western tropical Atlantic. The ADCP depth was determined by integration of the vertical velocity measurements, and the maximum depth of the cast was in good agreement with the CTD depth. Vertical shears were calculated for individual ADCP velocity profiles of 140-300-m range to eliminate the unknown horizontal motion of the instrument package. Subsequent raw shear profiles were then averaged with respect to depth to obtain a mean shear profile and its statistics. Typically, the shear standard deviations were about 10(-3) s-1 when using up and down traces simultaneously. The shear profiles were then vertically integrated to get relative velocity profiles. Different methods were tested to transform the relative velocities into absolute velocity profiles, and the results were compared with Pegasus dropsonde measurements. The best results were obtained by integrating the raw velocities and relative velocities over the duration of the cast and correcting for the ship drift determined from the Global Positioning System. Below 1000-m depth a reduction of the measurement range was observed, which results either from a lack of scatterers or instrumental problems at higher pressures.

Description: Inertial separation of a western boundary current from an idealized continent is studied in a homogeneous ocean circulation model. A number of processes are identified that either encourage or prevent separation at a coastal promontory in this model. For a single-gyre wind forcing a free-slip boundary condition forces the stream to follow the coastline, whereas the no-slip condition allows separation at a sharp corner. A prescribed countergyre to the north of the stream is not necessary to achieve separation if the no-slip condition is used. "Premature" separation occurs for wind fields that do not extend beyond the latitude of the cape. For a more realistic wind field and coastline two distinct states of the stream are found. At small Reynolds numbers the current fails to separate and develops a stationary anticyclonic meander north of the cape. Stronger currents separate and drive a recirculation in the lee of the continent.