ALBERT

Description: Inhomogeneous snow distribution and depletion patterns at grid scale in a shallow snowpack region The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4171-4203, 2012 Author(s): H. Li, J. Wang, Z. Tang, and J. Wang Understanding inhomogeneous snow processes at the grid scale is crucial for distributed snow hydrology research. Many studies on inhomogeneous snow processes focus on the annual similarity of snow distribution and depletion and the roles of topography and other environmental conditions. In contrast, this study examines the snow distribution and depletion patterns at a small grid scale in a shallow snowpack region and analyzes how meteorological factors influence these patterns by using the SNOWPACK model for scenario simulations. These simulations enable quantification of the role of three main meteorological factors: shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and air temperature. The study region is located in the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The results of the study indicate the following two points. (1) During different snowmelt periods, spatial similarity exists between the periodical cumulative snow distributions, and the relationships between snow cover fraction and mean snow water equivalent are similar. However, this similarity is not applicable to the period before snowmelt. (2) Shortwave radiation has a~major impact on the snow distribution and depletion patterns at the small grid scale. Increasing shortwave radiation can greatly promote the heterogeneity of the snow distribution. The contributions of longwave radiation and air temperature to the heterogeneity of snow distribution are minor. Moreover, there are similarities between the simulated snow distributions when considering the scenarios of increases in longwave radiation or in air temperature.

Description: Glacier changes from 1966–2009 in the Gongga Mountains, on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and their climatic forcing The Cryosphere, 6, 1087-1101, 2012 Author(s): B. T. Pan, G. L. Zhang, J. Wang, B. Cao, H. P. Geng, J. Wang, C. Zhang, and Y. P. Ji In order to monitor the changes of the glaciers in the Gongga Mountain region on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, 74 monsoonal temperate glaciers were investigated by comparing the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI), recorded in the 1960s, with Landsat MSS in 1974, Landsat TM in 1989, 1994, 2005, and ASTER data in 2009. The remote sensing data have been applied to map the glacier outline by threshold ratio images (TM4/TM5). Moreover, the glacier outlines were verified by GPS survey on four large glaciers (Hailuogou (HLG), Mozigou (MZG), Yanzigou (YZG), and Dagongba (DGB)) in 2009. The results show that the area dominated by the 74 glaciers has shrunk by 11.3% (29.2 km 2 ) from 1966 to 2009. Glacier area on the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains decreased by 9.8% and 14.6% since 1966, respectively. The loss in glacier area and length is, respectively, 0.8 km 2 and 1146.4 m for the HLG Glacier, 2.1 km 2 and 501.8 m for the MZG Glacier, 0.8 km 2 and 724.8 m for the YZG Glacier, and 2.4 km 2 and 1002.3 m for the DGB Glacier. Decades of climate records obtained from three meteorological stations in the Gongga Mountains were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the temperature and precipitation on glacier retreat. The mean annual temperatures over the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains have been increasing by 0.34 K decade −1 and 0.24 K decade −1 (1988–2009), respectively. Moreover, mean annual precipitation has only increased by 1% in the past 50 yr. The increasing amount of precipitation could not compensate for the glacier mass loss due to the temperature increase in the Gongga Mountains. This suggests that the warming of the climate is probably also responsible for the glacier retreat in the study region. At the region scale, glacier changes were also controlled by local topographical factors.

Description: Multi-satellite rainfall sampling error estimates – a comparative study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11677-11706, 2012 Author(s): M. Itkin and A. Loew This study focus is set on quantifying sampling related uncertainty in the satellite rainfall estimates. We conduct observing system simulation experiment to estimate sampling error for various constellations of Low-Earth orbiting and geostationary satellites. There are two types of microwave instruments currently available: cross track sounders and conical scanners. We evaluate the differences in sampling uncertainty for various satellite constellations that carry instruments of the common type as well as in combination with geostationary observations. A precise orbital model is used to simulate realistic satellite overpasses with orbital shifts taken into account. With this model we resampled rain gauge timeseries to simulate satellites rainfall estimates free of retrieval and calibration errors. We concentrate on two regions, Germany and Benin, areas with different precipitation regimes. Our results show that sampling uncertainty for all satellite constellations does not differ greatly depending on the area despite the differences in local precipitation patterns. Addition of 3 hourly geostationary observations provides equal performance improvement in Germany and Benin, reducing rainfall undersampling by 20–25% of the total rainfall amount. Authors do not find a significant difference in rainfall sampling between conical imager and cross-track sounders.

Description: Soil moisture controls on patterns of grass green-up in Inner Mongolia: an index based approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11641-11675, 2012 Author(s): H. Liu, F. Tian, H. Hu, H. Hu, and M. Sivapalan Water availability is one of the most important environmental controls on vegetation phenology, especially in semi-arid regions, and is often represented in terms of soil moisture in small-scale studies whereas it tends to be represented by precipitation in large-scale (e.g. regional) studies. Clearly, soil moisture is the more appropriate indicator for root water uptake and vegetation growth/phenology and therefore its potential advantage and applicability needs to be demonstrated at regional scales. This paper represents a data-based regional study of the effectiveness of alternative indices based on water and energy availability on space-time patterns of spring vegetation green-up onset dates estimated from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets in the grasslands of Inner Mongolia, China. The macro-scale hydrological model, VIC, is employed to generate a soil moisture database across the region. In addition to standard index based on temperature, two potential hydrology based indices for prediction of spring onset dates are defined based on the simulated soil moisture data as well as on observed precipitation data. Results indicate that the correspondence between the NDVI-derived green-up onset date and the soil moisture derived potential onset date exhibits a significantly better correlation as a function of increasing aridity, compared to that based on precipitation. In this way the soil moisture based index is demonstrated to be superior to the precipitation based index in terms of capturing grassland spring phenology. The results also showed that both of the hydrological (water based) indices were superior to the thermal (temperature based) index in determining the patterns of grass green-up in the Inner Mongolia region, indicating water availability to be the dominant control, on average. The understanding about the relative controls on grassland phenology, and the effectiveness of alternative indices to capture these controls, are important for future studies and predictions of vegetation phenology change under climate change.

Description: Accelerated contributions of Canada's Baffin and Bylot Island glaciers to sea level rise over the past half century The Cryosphere, 6, 1103-1125, 2012 Author(s): A. Gardner, G. Moholdt, A. Arendt, and B. Wouters Canadian Arctic glaciers have recently contributed large volumes of meltwater to the world's oceans. To place recently observed glacier wastage into a historical perspective and to determine the region's longer-term (~50 years) contribution to sea level, we estimate mass and volume changes for the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands using digital elevation models generated from airborne and satellite stereoscopic imagery and elevation postings from repeat airborne and satellite laser altimetry. In addition, we update existing glacier mass change records from GRACE satellite gravimetry to cover the period from 2003 to 2011. Using this integrated approach, we find that the rate of mass loss from the region's glaciers increased from 11.1 ± 3.4 Gt a −1 (271 ± 84 kg m −2 a −1 ) for the period 1963–2006 to 23.8 ± 6.1 Gt a −1 (581 ± 149 kg m −2 a −1 ) for the period 2003–2011. The doubling of the rate of mass loss is attributed to higher temperatures in summer with little change in annual precipitation. Through both direct and indirect effects, changes in summer temperatures accounted for 70–98% of the variance in the rate of mass loss, to which the Barnes Ice Cap was found to be 1.7 times more sensitive than either the Penny Ice Cap or the region's glaciers as a whole. This heightened sensitivity is the result of a glacier hypsometry that is skewed to lower elevations, which are shown to have a higher mass change sensitive to temperature compared to glacier surfaces at higher elevations. Between 2003 and 2011 the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands contributed 0.07 ± 0.02 mm a −1 to sea level rise accounting for 16% of the total contribution from glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica, a rate much higher than the longer-term average of 0.03 ± 0.01 mm a −1 (1963 to 2006).

Description: Thinning and slowdown of Greenland's Mittivakkat Gletscher The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4387-4415, 2012 Author(s): S. H. Mernild, N. T. Knudsen, M. J. Hoffman, J. C. Yde, W. H. Lipscomb, E. Hanna, J. K. Malmros, and R. S. Fausto Here, we document changes for the Mittivakkat Gletscher, the glacier in Greenland (disconnected to the Greenland Ice Sheet, GrIS) having the longest observed mass balance and surface velocity time series (since 1995). Between 1986 and 2011, this glacier decreased by 15% in mean ice thickness and 30% in volume. We attribute these changes to summer warming and less winter snowfall. The vertical strain was able to compensate about 60% of the elevation change due to surface mass balance (SMB) in the lower part, and about 25% in the upper part. The annual mean ice surface velocity decreased by 30%, likely as a dynamic effect of ice thinning. Mittivakkat Gletscher summer surface velocities were on average 50–60% above winter background values, and up to 160% higher during peak velocity events.

Description: Variability of light transmission through Arctic land-fast sea ice during spring The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4363-4385, 2012 Author(s): M. Nicolaus, C. Petrich, S. R. Hudson, and M. A. Granskog The amount of solar radiation transmitted through Arctic sea ice is determined by the thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice. Light transmittance is highly variable in space and time since thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice are highly heterogeneous on variable time and length scales. We present field measurements of under-ice irradiance along repeated (March, May, June 2010) transects under un-deformed land-fast sea ice at Barrow, Alaska. The objective was to quantify seasonal evolution and spatial variability of light transmittance through snow and sea ice. Along with optical measurements, snow depth, sea ice thickness, and freeboard were recorded, and ice cores were analyzed for Chlorophyll a and particulate matter. Our results show that snow cover variability prior to onset of snow melt may cause as much spatial variability of relative light transmittance as the contrast of ponded and white ice during summer. In both instances, a spatial variability of up to three times above and below the mean was measured. In addition, we found a thirtyfold increase of light transmittance as a result of partial snowmelt. Hence, the seasonal evolution of transmittance through sea ice exceeded the spatial variability. Nevertheless, more comprehensive under-ice radiation measurements are needed for a more generalized and large-scale understanding of the under-ice energy budget for physical, biological, and geochemical applications.

Description: Response to recharge variation of thin rainwater lenses and their mixing zone with underlying saline groundwater Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3535-3549, 2012 Author(s): S. Eeman, S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee, A. Leijnse, P. G. B. de Louw, and C. Maas In coastal zones with saline groundwater, fresh groundwater lenses may form due to infiltration of rain water. The thickness of both the lens and the mixing zone, determines fresh water availability for plant growth. Due to recharge variation, the thickness of the lens and the mixing zone are not constant, which may adversely affect agricultural and natural vegetation if saline water reaches the root zone during the growing season. In this paper, we study the response of thin lenses and their mixing zone to variation of recharge. The recharge is varied using sinusoids with a range of amplitudes and frequencies. We vary lens characteristics by varying the Rayleigh number and Mass flux ratio of saline and fresh water, as these dominantly influence the thickness of thin lenses and their mixing zone. Numerical results show a linear relation between the normalised lens volume and the main lens and recharge characteristics, enabling an empirical approximation of the variation of lens thickness. Increase of the recharge amplitude causes increase and the increase of recharge frequency causes a decrease in the variation of lens thickness. The average lens thickness is not significantly influenced by these variations in recharge, contrary to the mixing zone thickness. The mixing zone thickness is compared to that of a Fickian mixing regime. A simple relation between the travelled distance of the centre of the mixing zone position due to variations in recharge and the mixing zone thickness is shown to be valid for both a sinusoidal recharge variation and actual records of daily recharge data. Starting from a step response function, convolution can be used to determine the effect of variable recharge in time. For a sinusoidal curve, we can determine delay of lens movement compared to the recharge curve as well as the lens amplitude, derived from the convolution integral. Together the proposed equations provide us with a first order approximation of lens characteristics using basic lens and recharge parameters without the use of numerical models. This enables the assessment of the vulnerability of any thin fresh water lens on saline, upward seeping groundwater to salinity stress in the root zone.

Description: Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3551-3559, 2012 Author(s): M. Angulo-Martínez and S. Beguería Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain) is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO).

Description: Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3059-3073, 2012 Author(s): N. K. Meyer, A. V. Dyrrdal, R. Frauenfelder, B. Etzelmüller, and F. Nadim Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN). For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day −1 . Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day −1 . The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

Description: On the utility of land surface models for agricultural drought monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3451-3460, 2012 Author(s): W. T. Crow, S. V. Kumar, and J. D. Bolten The lagged rank cross-correlation between model-derived root-zone soil moisture estimates and remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI) is examined between January 2000 and December 2010 to quantify the skill of various soil moisture models for agricultural drought monitoring. Examined modeling strategies range from a simple antecedent precipitation index to the application of modern land surface models (LSMs) based on complex water and energy balance formulations. A quasi-global evaluation of lagged VI/soil moisture cross-correlation suggests, when globally averaged across the entire annual cycle, soil moisture estimates obtained from complex LSMs provide little added skill ( 〈 5% in relative terms) in anticipating variations in vegetation condition relative to a simplified water accounting procedure based solely on observed precipitation. However, larger amounts of added skill (5–15% in relative terms) can be identified when focusing exclusively on the extra-tropical growing season and/or utilizing soil moisture values acquired by averaging across a multi-model ensemble.

Description: Acid-base characteristics of the Grass Pond watershed in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State, USA: interactions between soil, vegetation and surface waters Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10775-10803, 2012 Author(s): K. M. McEathron, M. J. Mitchell, and L. Zhang Grass Pond watershed is located within the Southwestern Adirondack Mountain region of New York State, USA. This region receives some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in North America and is particularly sensitive to acidic inputs due to many of its soils having shallow depths and being generally base-poor. Differences in soil chemistry and tree species between seven subwatersheds were examined in relation to acid-base characteristics of the seven major streams that drain into Grass Pond. Mineral soil pH, stream water BCS and pH exhibited a positive correlation with sugar maple basal area ( p = 0.055; 0.48 and 0.39, respectively). Black cherry basal area was inversely correlated with stream water BCS, ANC c and NO 3 – ( p = 0.23; 0.24 and 0.20, respectively). Sugar maple basal areas were positively correlated with watershed characteristics associated with the neutralization of atmospheric acidic inputs while in contrast, black cherry basal areas showed opposite relationships to these same watershed characteristics. Canonical Correspondence Analysis indicated that black cherry had a distinctive relationship with forest floor chemistry apart from the other tree species, specifically a strong positive association with forest floor NH 4 while sugar maple had a distinctive relationship with stream chemistry variables, specifically a strong positive association with stream water ANC c , BCS and pH. Our results provide evidence that sugar maple is acid-intolerant or calciphilic tree species and also demonstrate that black cherry is likely an acid-tolerant tree species.

Description: Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3419-3434, 2012 Author(s): O. Rakovec, P. Hazenberg, P. J. J. F. Torfs, A. H. Weerts, and R. Uijlenhoet Sound spatially distributed rainfall fields including a proper spatial and temporal error structure are of key interest for hydrologists to force hydrological models and to identify uncertainties in the simulated and forecasted catchment response. The current paper presents a temporally coherent error identification method based on time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulations, which are conditioned on preceding simulations. A sensitivity analysis and real-world experiment are carried out within the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. Precipitation fields are simulated for pixels of 10 km × 10 km resolution. Uncertainty analyses in the simulated fields focus on (1) the number of previous simulation hours on which the new simulation is conditioned, (2) the advection speed of the rainfall event, (3) the size of the catchment considered, and (4) the rain gauge density within the catchment. The results for a sensitivity analysis show for typical advection speeds 〉20 km h −1 , no uncertainty is added in terms of across ensemble spread when conditioned on more than one or two previous hourly simulations. However, for the real-world experiment, additional uncertainty can still be added when conditioning on a larger number of previous simulations. This is because for actual precipitation fields, the dynamics exhibit a larger spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, by thinning the observation network with 50%, the added uncertainty increases only slightly and the cross-validation shows that the simulations at the unobserved locations are unbiased. Finally, the first-order autocorrelation coefficients show clear temporal coherence in the time series of the areal precipitation using the time-dependent multivariate conditional simulations, which was not the case using the time-independent univariate conditional simulations. The presented work can be easily implemented within a hydrological calibration and data assimilation framework and can be used as an improvement over currently used simplistic approaches to perturb the interpolated point or spatially distributed precipitation estimates.

Description: Brief communication "Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet" The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4101-4122, 2012 Author(s): X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, C. Lang, A. Belleflamme, M. Erpicum, and H. Gallée Since 2007, there has been a succession of surface melt records over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in continuity of the trend observed since the end of the 1990s towards increasing melt. But, these last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on the daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of the atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration since 20 yr. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June-July-August) mean temperature at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that ~70% of the 1992–2011 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones in surface and at 500 hPa centred over the GrIS has doubled since the end of 1990s which induces southerly warm air advection along the Western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian islands. These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last five summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are more frequent than before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over Greenland, Ellesmere and Baffin Islands can not be considered as a long term climate warming but are more rather a consequence of the NAO variability impacting the atmospheric heat transport. While no global model from the CMIP5 database projects consequent changes in NAO through this century, we can not exclude that these changes in NAO are due to global warming.

Description: Surface deformation detected by the space-observed small baseline SAR interferometry over permafrost environment in Tibet Plateau, China The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4071-4099, 2012 Author(s): F. Chen and H. Lin The evolution of permafrost and the active layer is highly related to climate change because of its feedback effects involving water and carbon storage. In this study, we firstly examined the relationship of regional water balance, geomorphological process and anthropogenic activities by means of Small Baseline Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (SB-InSAR) to monitor the surface movements overlaid on the permafrost of Tibet Plateau (TP), China, using 3.5-yr observation span of L-band ALOS PALSAR data (June, 2007 to December, 2010). The estimated displacements (primarily in the range of −30 mm yr −1 to 30 mm yr −1 ) and time-series implied evolutions of the active layer and permafrost beneath. The motion trend along slopes was complicated, and thus interdisciplinary interpretations were required. Water level variations of inland lakes were then detected, although further investigations were required for validation. Anthropogenic influences on this frail permafrost environment were significant, proved by the remarkable surface settlement along the embankment of Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Consequently, it is crucial and necessary to monitor this arid and cold plateau owing to the combination of climate change, geo-hazards prediction as well as the regional sustainable development.

Description: It takes a community to raise a hydrologist: the Modular Curriculum for Hydrologic Advancement (MOCHA) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3405-3418, 2012 Author(s): T. Wagener, C. Kelleher, M. Weiler, B. McGlynn, M. Gooseff, L. Marshall, T. Meixner, K. McGuire, S. Gregg, P. Sharma, and S. Zappe Protection from hydrological extremes and the sustainable supply of hydrological services in the presence of changing climate and lifestyles as well as rocketing population pressure in many parts of the world are the defining societal challenges for hydrology in the 21st century. A review of the existing literature shows that these challenges and their educational consequences for hydrology were foreseeable and were even predicted by some. However, surveys of the current educational basis for hydrology also clearly demonstrate that hydrology education is not yet ready to prepare students to deal with these challenges. We present our own vision of the necessary evolution of hydrology education, which we implemented in the Modular Curriculum for Hydrologic Advancement (MOCHA). The MOCHA project is directly aimed at developing a community-driven basis for hydrology education. In this paper we combine literature review, community survey, discussion and assessment to provide a holistic baseline for the future of hydrology education. The ultimate objective of our educational initiative is to enable educators to train a new generation of "renaissance hydrologists," who can master the holistic nature of our field and of the problems we encounter.

Description: Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations – a comparison of methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3383-3390, 2012 Author(s): L. Gudmundsson, J. B. Bremnes, J. E. Haugen, and T. Engen-Skaugen The impact of climate change on water resources is usually assessed at the local scale. However, regional climate models (RCMs) are known to exhibit systematic biases in precipitation. Hence, RCM simulations need to be post-processed in order to produce reliable estimates of local scale climate. Popular post-processing approaches are based on statistical transformations, which attempt to adjust the distribution of modelled data such that it closely resembles the observed climatology. However, the diversity of suggested methods renders the selection of optimal techniques difficult and therefore there is a need for clarification. In this paper, statistical transformations for post-processing RCM output are reviewed and classified into (1) distribution derived transformations, (2) parametric transformations and (3) nonparametric transformations, each differing with respect to their underlying assumptions. A real world application, using observations of 82 precipitation stations in Norway, showed that nonparametric transformations have the highest skill in systematically reducing biases in RCM precipitation.

Description: Ice velocity changes in the Ross and Ronne sectors observed using satellite radar data from 1997 and 2009 The Cryosphere, 6, 1019-1030, 2012 Author(s): B. Scheuchl, J. Mouginot, and E. Rignot We report changes in ice velocity of a 6.5 million km 2 region around South Pole encompassing the Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves and a significant portion of the ice streams and glaciers that constitute their catchment areas. Using the first full interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) coverage of the region completed in 2009 and partial coverage acquired in 1997, we processed the data to assemble a comprehensive map of ice speed changes between those two years. On the Ross Ice Shelf, our results confirm a continued deceleration of Mercer and Whillans Ice Streams with a 12-yr velocity difference of −50 m yr −1 (−16.7%) and −100 m yr −1 (−25.3%) at their grounding lines. The deceleration spreads 450 km upstream of the grounding line and more than 500 km onto the shelf, beyond what was previously known. Ross and Filchner Ice Shelves exhibit signs of pre-calving events, representing the largest observed changes, with an increase in speed in excess of +100 m yr −1 in 12 yr. Other changes in the Ross Ice Shelf region are less significant. The observed changes in glacier speed extend on the Ross Ice Shelf along the ice streams' flow lines. Most tributaries of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show a modest deceleration or no change between 1997 and 2009. Slessor Glacier shows a small deceleration over a large sector. No change is detected on the Bailey, Rutford, and Institute Ice Streams. On the Filchner Ice Shelf itself, ice decelerated rather uniformly with a 12-yr difference in speed of −50 m yr −1 , or −5% of its ice front speed, which we attribute to a 12 km advance in its ice front position. Our results show that dynamic changes are present in the region. They highlight the need for continued observation of the area with a primary focus on the Siple Coast. The dynamic changes in Central Antarctica between 1997 and 2009 are generally second-order effects in comparison to losses on glaciers in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region and on the Antarctic Peninsula. We therefore conclude that the dynamic changes shown here do not have a strong impact on the mass budget of the Antarctic continent.

Description: Estimation of evapotranspiration from TOA radiances in the Poyang Lake Basin, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10963-11003, 2012 Author(s): J. Peng, Y. Liu, X. Zhao, and A. Loew Routine and rapid estimation of ET (evapotranspiration) at regional scale is of great significance for agricultural, hydrological and climatic studies. A simplified single-source energy balance parameterization scheme, known as the LST/NDVI (Land Surface Temperature/Vegetation Index) triangle method, has been applied successfully to estimate regional clear sky ET in many studies. Based on the triangle method, we proposed a new method in this study to estimate daily ET directly using the TOA (Top of Atmosphere) radiances without performing atmospheric correction and other complicated processes. Firstly, the EF (Evaporative Fraction, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to surface available energy) was estimated by interpolation in the LST/NDVI triangular-shaped scatter space, which was constructed using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro radiometer) TOA radiances over a heterogeneous area of the Poyang Lake Basin in China. Then the net radiation over the same study area was derived based entirely on MODIS TOA radiances as well. Finally, daily ET maps were estimated from these EF maps and net radiation maps by using a sinusoidal temporal interpolation model. The estimated EF, net radiation and ET have been validated against field observations collected for the period October 2007–July 2008. The results indicate comparable accuracy to results of other current widely used satellite-based methods. In addition, intercomparisons between the proposed method-based estimates and MODIS products-based estimates were also carried out over the validation site. The results suggest that the proposed method performed slightly better than the MODIS products-based triangle method. Overall, the proposed algorithm requires fewer assumptions and can avoid uncertainties associated with the satellite derived products, while its accuracy is slightly higher. It should facilitate direct use of satellite data for determining ET and relevant applications as well. Nonetheless, more validation work needs to be carried out with more integration of satellite data and ground-based measurements over various climatic regions and under different surface conditions in the future.

Description: Data expansion: the potential of grey literature for understanding floods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11049-11092, 2012 Author(s): S. Uhlemann, R. Bertelmann, and B. Merz Sophisticated methods have been developed and become standard in analysing floods as well as for assessing the flood risk. However, increasingly critique of the current standards and scientific practice can be found both in the flood hydrology community as well as in the risk community who argue that the considerable amount of information already available on natural disasters has not been adequately deployed and brought to effective use. We describe this phenomenon as a failure to synthesize knowledge that results from barriers and ignorance in awareness, use and management of the entire spectrum of relevant content, that is, data, information and knowledge. In this paper we argue that the scientific community in flood risk research ignores event specific analysis and documentations as another source of data. We present results from a systematic search that includes an intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood relevant publications. We obtain 183 documents that contain information on the sources, pathways, receptors and/or consequences for any of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952–2002. This study therefore provides the most comprehensive meta-data collection of flood documentations for the considered geographical space and period. 87.5% of all events have been documented and especially the most severe floods have received extensive coverage. Only 30% of the material has been produced in the scientific/academic environment and the majority of all documents (about 80%) can be considered grey literature. Therefore, ignoring grey sources in flood research also means ignoring the largest part of knowledge available on single flood events (in Germany). Further, the results of this study underpin the rapid changes in information dissemination of flood event literature over the last decade. We discuss the options and obstacles of incorporating this data in the knowledge building process in the light of the current technological developments and international, interdisciplinary debates for data curation.

Description: Mechanical effect of mélange-induced buttressing on embayment-terminating glacier dynamics The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4123-4136, 2012 Author(s): D. Seneca Lindsey and T. K. Dupont Embayment terminating glaciers interact dynamically with seasonal sea ice and icebergs, a mixture we refer to as mélange. For certain glaciers, mélange prevents calved bergs from rotating away from the front, thus allowing the ice front to advance into the embayment. Here we demonstrate that mélange can, if rigid enough, provide sufficient buttressing to reduce the calving rate, while leaving the ice-front velocity largely unaffected. The net result is additional ice-front advance. Observations indicate a seasonal advance/retreat cycle has occurred at Jakobshavn Isbræ since the 1950s. We model an idealized Jakobshavn Isbræ-like scenario and find that mélange may be responsible for a seasonal ice-front advance of up to 0.6 km. These results come from a model that incorporates mélange into the interior of the domain, includes relevant stresses, and models drag via a kinematic boundary condition. A weakening or loss of mélange due to increasing temperatures would lead to further mass loss from glaciers such as Jakobshavn Isbræ.

Description: Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing The Cryosphere, 6, 1063-1076, 2012 Author(s): E. J. Burke, I. P. Hartley, and C. D. Jones Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean temperature (P-GMT). The analysis is based on simulations made with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM2-ES) for a range of representative CO 2 concentration pathways. Results using the high concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) suggest that by 2100 the annual methane (CH 4 ) emission rate is 2–59 Tg CH 4 yr −1 and 50–270 Pg C has been released as CO 2 with an associated P-GMT of 0.08–0.36 °C (all 5th–95th percentile ranges). P-GMT is considerably lower – between 0.02 and 0.11 °C – for the low concentration pathway (RCP2.6). The uncertainty in climate model scenario causes about 50% of the spread in P-GMT by the end of the 21st century. The distribution of soil carbon, in particular how it varies with depth, contributes to about half of the remaining spread, with quality of soil carbon and decomposition processes contributing a further quarter each. These latter uncertainties could be reduced through additional observations. Over the next 20–30 yr, whilst scenario uncertainty is small, improving our knowledge of the quality of soil carbon will contribute significantly to reducing the spread in the, albeit relatively small, P-GMT.

Description: A Bayesian joint probability post-processor for reducing errors and quantifying uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11199-11225, 2012 Author(s): P. Pokhrel, D. E. Robertson, and Q. J. Wang Hydrological post-processors refer here to statistical models that are applied to hydrological model predictions to further reduce prediction errors and to quantify remaining uncertainty. For streamflow predictions, post-processors are generally applied to daily or sub-daily time scales. For many applications such as seasonal streamflow forecasting and water resources assessment, monthly volumes of streamflows are of primary interest. While it is possible to aggregate post-processed daily or sub-daily predictions to monthly time scales, the monthly volumes so produced may not have the least errors achievable and may not be reliable in uncertainty distributions. Post-processing directly at the monthly time scale is likely to be more effective. In this study, we investigate the use of a Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to directly post-process model predictions of monthly streamflow volumes. We apply the BJP post-processor to 18 catchments located in eastern Australia and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing prediction errors and quantifying prediction uncertainty.

Description: Gains from modelling dependence of rainfall variables into a stochastic model: application of the copula approach at several sites Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11227-11266, 2012 Author(s): P. Cantet and P. Arnaud Since the last decade, copulas have become more and more widespread in the construction of hydrological models. Unlike the multivariate statistics which are traditionally used, this tool enables scientists to model different dependence structures without drawbacks. The authors propose to apply copulas to improve the performance of an existing model. The hourly rainfall stochastic model SHYPRE is based on the simulation of descriptive variables. It generates long series of hourly rainfall and enables the estimation of distribution quantiles for different climates. The paper focuses on the relationship between two variables describing the rainfall signal. First, Kendall's tau is estimated on each of the 217 rain gauge stations in France, then the False Discovery Rate procedure is used to define stations for which the dependence is significant. Among three usual archimedean copulas, a unique 2-copula is chosen to model this dependence for any station. Modelling dependence leads to an obvious improvement in the reproduction of the standard and extreme statistics of maximum rainfall, especially for the sub-daily rainfall. An accuracy test for the extreme values shows the good asymptotic behaviour of the new rainfall generator version and the impacts of the copula choice on extreme quantile estimation.

Description: Crossing the digital divide: an interoperable solution for sharing time series and coverages in Earth sciences Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3013-3029, 2012 Author(s): F. R. Salas, E. Boldrini, D. R. Maidment, S. Nativi, and B. Domenico In a world driven by the Internet and the readily accessible information it provides, there exists a high demand to easily discover and collect vast amounts of data available over several scientific domains and numerous data types. To add to the complexity, data is not only available through a plethora of data sources within disparate systems but also represents differing scales of space and time. One clear divide that exists in the world of information science and technology is the disjoint relationship between hydrologic and atmospheric science information. These worlds have long been split between observed time series at discrete geographical features in hydrologic science and modeled or remotely sensed coverages or grids over continuous space and time domains in atmospheric science. As more information becomes widely available through the Web, data are being served and published as Web services using standardized implementations and encodings. This paper illustrates a framework that utilizes Sensor Observation Services, Web Feature Services, Web Coverage Services, Catalog Services for the Web and GI-cat Services to index and discover data offered through different classes of information. This services infrastructure supports multiple servers of time series and gridded information, which can be searched through multiple portals, using a common set of time, space and concept query filters.

Description: Simulating dam-breach flood scenarios of the Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3031-3044, 2012 Author(s): X. Fan, C. X. Tang, C. J. van Westen, and D. Alkema Floods from failures of landslide dams can pose a hazard to people and property downstream, which have to be rapidly assessed and mitigated in order to reduce the potential risk. The Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the M w = 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake had impounded the largest lake in the earthquake affected area with an estimated volume of 3 × 10 8 m 3 , and the potential catastrophic dam breach posed a serious threat to more than 2.5 million people in downstream towns and Mianyang city, located 85 km downstream. Chinese authorities had to evacuate parts of the city until the Tangjiashan landslide dam was artificially breached by a spillway, and the lake was drained. We propose an integrated approach to simulate the dam-breach floods for a number of possible scenarios, to evaluate the severity of the threat to Mianyang city. Firstly, the physically-based BREACH model was applied to predict the flood hydrographs at the dam location, which were calibrated with observational data of the flood resulting from the artificial breaching. The output hydrographs from this model were inputted into the 1-D–2-D SOBEK hydrodynamic model to simulate the spatial variations in flood parameters. The simulated flood hydrograph, peak discharge and peak arrival time at the downstream towns fit the observations. Thus this approach is capable of providing reliable predictions for the decision makers to determine the mitigation plans. The sensitivity analysis of the BREACH model input parameters reveals that the average grain size, the unit weight and porosity of the dam materials are the most sensitive parameters. The variability of the dam material properties causes a large uncertainty in the estimation of the peak flood discharge and peak arrival time, but has little influence on the flood inundation area and flood depth downstream. The effect of cascading breaches of smaller dams downstream of the Tangjiashan dam was insignificant, due to their rather small volumes, which were only 2% of the volume of the Tangjiashan lake. The construction of the spillway was proven to have played a crucial role in reducing the dam-breach flood, because all the other natural breach scenarios would have caused the flooding of the downstream towns and parts of Mianyang city. However, in retrospect improvements on the spillway design and the evacuation planning would have been possible. The dam-break flood risk will be better controlled by reducing the spillway channel gradient and the porosity of the coating of the channel bottom. The experience and lessons we learned from the Tangjiashan case will contribute to improving the hazard mitigation and risk management planning of similar events in future.

Description: Heterogeneity in Glacier response from 1973 to 2011 in the Shyok valley, Karakoram, India The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3049-3078, 2012 Author(s): R. Bhambri, T. Bolch, P. Kawishwar, D. P. Dobhal, D. Srivastava, and B. Pratap A glacier inventory for the Shyok and Chang Chenmo basins was generated for the year 2002 using semi-automated methods based on Landsat ETM+ and SRTM3 DEM data. Glacier change analysis was carried out for 134 glaciers based on Hexagon KH-9 (years 1973, 1974) and Landsat TM/ETM+ (1989, 2002 and 2011) images. The 2002 inventory contains 2123 glaciers with an area of 2977.9±92.2 km 2 in the entire study area including Shyok (1605 glaciers; area 2499±77.4 km 2 ) and Chang Chenmo basins (518 glaciers; area 478.7±14.8 km 2 ). Out of 2123 glaciers, only eight glaciers have higher elevation ranges than 2000 m. On average, the glacier area in Chang Chenmo basin exhibited no changes during the study period. However, individual absolute glacier area changes varied from −0.7±0.03 km 2 to +0.2±0.01 km 2 between 1973 and 2011. 10 glaciers exhibited an area increase of 1.7±0.07 km 2 in total while 36 glaciers lost about total 1.8±0.07 km 2 . The glacier area decreased by 11±0.47 km 2 from 1973 to 1989 in the Shyok basin whereas an increase in area of 8.2±0.33 km 2 was observed during 1989–2002. The area has further increased by 5.6±0.21 km 2 from 2002 to 2011 in the respective basin. This individual glacier response heterogeneity can be attributed to surging and possibly due to decreased temperature in last decades. However, further detailed studies are needed to understand glacier surge mechanism and the possible mass gain.

Description: The impact of heterogeneous surface temperatures on the 2-m air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in spring The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3011-3048, 2012 Author(s): A. Tetzlaff, L. Kaleschke, C. Lüpkes, F. Ament, and T. Vihma The influence of spatial surface temperature changes over the Arctic Ocean on the 2-m air temperature variability is estimated using backward trajectories based on ERA-Interim and the JRA25 wind fields. They are initiated at Alert, Barrow and at the Tara drifting station. Three different methods are used. The first one compares mean ice surface temperatures along the trajectories to the observed 2-m air temperatures at the stations. The second one correlates the observed temperatures to air temperatures obtained using a simple Lagrangian box model which only includes the effect of sensible heat fluxes. For the third method, mean sensible heat fluxes from the model are correlated with the difference of the air temperatures at the model starting point and the observed temperatures at the stations. The calculations are based on MODIS ice surface temperatures and four different sets of ice concentration derived from SSM/I and AMSR-E data. Under nearly cloud free conditions, up to 90% of the 2-m air temperature variance can be explained for Alert, and 60% for Barrow using these methods. The differences are attributed to the different ice conditions, which are characterized by high ice concentration around Alert and lower ice concentration near Barrow. These results are robust for the different sets of reanalyses and ice concentration data. Near-surface winds of both reanalyses show a large inconsistency in the Central Arctic, which leads to a large difference in the correlations between modeled and observed 2-m air temperatures at Tara. Explained variances amount to 70% using JRA and only 45% using ERA. The results also suggest that near-surface temperatures at a given site are influenced by the variability of surface temperatures in a domain of about 150 to 350 km radius around the site.

Description: Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9065-9093, 2012 Author(s): K. Rasouli, M. A. Hernández-Henríquez, and S. J. Déry The 271 000 km 2 Lake Athabasca drainage in Northern Canada encompasses ecologically-rich and sensitive ecosystems, intensive agricultural lands, vast forests, glacier-clad mountains, and abundant oil reserves in the form of tar-sands. In this study, streamflow variability and trends in eight rivers feeding the 7800 km 2 Lake Athabasca are investigated over the period 1960–2010. Hydrological regimes and trends are established using a robust regime shift detection method and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, respectively. Results show that the Athabasca River, which provides ~ 57% of the total annual lake inflow of 34.06 km 3 yr −1 , experiences marked declines in recent decades impacting lake levels and its ecosystem. The Fond du Lac River, which contributes ~ 30% of total Lake Athabasca inflow, has an increasing trend of 0.021 km 3 yr −1 over 1970–2010 according to the MK test, equating to a 0.86 km 3 discharge increase from Fond du Lac River to the lake. From 1960 to 2010 there has been approximately a 21.2% reduction of average discharge equivalent to a 7.22 km 3 recession in the Lake Athabasca causing lake levels to drop. The lake level has a trend of −0.008 m yr −1 which is equivalent to a 0.39 m decline in the lake level over 1960–2010. The total lake inflow trend over 1977–2010 is −0.207 km 3 yr −1 or a reduction of 25.67 km 3 by 2100 by linear extrapolation. This may imply a further reduction of 2 m to 3 m in lake level that is in the range of a 5200-yr historical minimum inferred from proxy data in nearby sediment cores.

Description: Refreezing on the Greenland ice sheet: a comparison of parameterizations The Cryosphere, 6, 743-762, 2012 Author(s): C. H. Reijmer, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis, J. Ettema, and L. B. Stap Retention and refreezing of meltwater are acknowledged to be important processes for the mass budget of polar glaciers and ice sheets. Several parameterizations of these processes exist for use in energy and mass balance models. Due to a lack of direct observations, validation of these parameterizations is difficult. In this study we compare a set of 6 refreezing parameterizations against output of two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) coupled to an energy balance snow model, the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), applied to the Greenland ice sheet. In both RCMs, refreezing is explicitly calculated in a snow model that calculates vertical profiles of temperature, density and liquid water content. Between RACMO2 and MAR, the ice sheet-integrated amount of refreezing differs by only 4.9 mm w.e yr −1 (4.5 %), and the temporal and spatial variability are very similar. For consistency, the parameterizations are forced with output (surface temperature, precipitation and melt) of the RCMs. For the ice sheet-integrated amount of refreezing and its inter-annual variations, all parameterizations give similar results, especially after some tuning. However, the spatial distributions differ significantly and the spatial correspondence between the RCMs is better than with any of the parameterizations. Results are especially sensitive to the choice of the depth of the thermally active layer, which determines the cold content of the snow in most parameterizations. These results are independent of which RCM is used to force the parameterizations.

Description: Assessing water footprint at river basin level: a case study for the Heihe River Basin in northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2771-2781, 2012 Author(s): Z. Zeng, J. Liu, P. H. Koeneman, E. Zarate, and A. Y. Hoekstra Increasing water scarcity places considerable importance on the quantification of water footprint (WF) at different levels. Despite progress made previously, there are still very few WF studies focusing on specific river basins, especially for those in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to quantify WF within the Heihe River Basin (HRB), a basin located in the arid and semi-arid northwest of China. The findings show that the WF was 1768 million m 3 yr −1 in the HRB over 2004–2006. Agricultural production was the largest water consumer, accounting for 96% of the WF (92% for crop production and 4% for livestock production). The remaining 4% was for the industrial and domestic sectors. The "blue" (surface- and groundwater) component of WF was 811 million m 3 yr −1 . This indicates a blue water proportion of 46%, which is much higher than the world average and China's average, which is mainly due to the aridness of the HRB and a high dependence on irrigation for crop production. However, even in such a river basin, blue WF was still smaller than "green" (soil water) WF, indicating the importance of green water. We find that blue WF exceeded blue water availability during eight months per year and also on an annual basis. This indicates that WF of human activities was achieved at a cost of violating environmental flows of natural freshwater ecosystems, and such a WF pattern is not sustainable. Considering the large WF of crop production, optimizing the crop planting pattern is often a key to achieving more sustainable water use in arid and semi-arid regions.

Description: Robust multi-objective calibration strategies – possibilities for improving flood forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3579-3606, 2012 Author(s): T. Krauße, J. Cullmann, P. Saile, and G. H. Schmitz Process-oriented rainfall-runoff models are designed to approximate the complex hydrologic processes within a specific catchment and in particular to simulate the discharge at the catchment outlet. Most of these models exhibit a high degree of complexity and require the determination of various parameters by calibration. Recently, automatic calibration methods became popular in order to identify parameter vectors with high corresponding model performance. The model performance is often assessed by a purpose-oriented objective function. Practical experience suggests that in many situations one single objective function cannot adequately describe the model's ability to represent any aspect of the catchment's behaviour. This is regardless of whether the objective is aggregated of several criteria that measure different (possibly opposite) aspects of the system behaviour. One strategy to circumvent this problem is to define multiple objective functions and to apply a multi-objective optimisation algorithm to identify the set of Pareto optimal or non-dominated solutions. Nonetheless, there is a major disadvantage of automatic calibration procedures that understand the problem of model calibration just as the solution of an optimisation problem: due to the complex-shaped response surface, the estimated solution of the optimisation problem can result in different near-optimum parameter vectors that can lead to a very different performance on the validation data. Bárdossy and Singh (2008) studied this problem for single-objective calibration problems using the example of hydrological models and proposed a geometrical sampling approach called Robust Parameter Estimation (ROPE). This approach applies the concept of data depth in order to overcome the shortcomings of automatic calibration procedures and find a set of robust parameter vectors. Recent studies confirmed the effectivity of this method. However, all ROPE approaches published so far just identify robust model parameter vectors with respect to one single objective. The consideration of multiple objectives is just possible by aggregation. In this paper, we present an approach that combines the principles of multi-objective optimisation and depth-based sampling, entitled Multi-Objective Robust Parameter Estimation (MOROPE). It applies a multi-objective optimisation algorithm in order to identify non-dominated robust model parameter vectors. Subsequently, it samples parameter vectors with high data depth using a further developed sampling algorithm presented in Krauße and Cullmann (2012a). We study the effectivity of the proposed method using synthetical test functions and for the calibration of a distributed hydrologic model with focus on flood events in a small, pre-alpine, and fast responding catchment in Switzerland.

Description: Assessing the potential hydrological impact of the Gibe III Dam on Lake Turkana water level using multi-source satellite data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3561-3578, 2012 Author(s): N. M. Velpuri and G. B. Senay Lake Turkana, the largest desert lake in the world, is fed by ungauged or poorly gauged river systems. To meet the demand of electricity in the East African region, Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies more than 80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa with a height of 241 m. However, the nature of interactions and potential impacts of regulated inflows to Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ datasets. In this study, we used 12 yr (1998–2009) of existing multi-source satellite and model-assimilated global weather data. We used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model evaluates the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different approaches – a historical approach, a rainfall based approach, and a statistical approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. All the approaches provided comparable and consistent results. Model results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam on Lake Turkana would vary with the magnitude and distribution of rainfall post-dam commencement. On average, the reservoir would take up to 8–10 months, after commencement, to reach a minimum operation level of 201 m depth of water. During the dam filling period, the lake level would drop up to 1–2 m (95% confidence) compared to the lake level modeled without the dam. The lake level variability caused by regulated inflows after the dam commissioning were found to be within the natural variability of the lake of 4.8 m. Moreover, modeling results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam would depend on the initial lake level at the time of dam commencement. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to fluctuations in lake levels due to the Gibe III dam were also identified. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of using existing multi-source satellite data in a basic modeling framework to assess the potential hydrological impact of an upstream dam on a terminal downstream lake. The results obtained from this study could also be used to evaluate alternative dam-filling scenarios and assess the potential impact of the dam on Lake Turkana under different operational strategies.

Description: Vapor flux and recrystallization during dry snow metamorphism under a steady temperature gradient as observed by time-lapse micro-tomography The Cryosphere, 6, 1141-1155, 2012 Author(s): B. R. Pinzer, M. Schneebeli, and T. U. Kaempfer Dry snow metamorphism under an external temperature gradient is the most common type of recrystallization of snow on the ground. The changes in snow microstructure modify the physical properties of snow, and therefore an understanding of this process is essential for many disciplines, from modeling the effects of snow on climate to assessing avalanche risk. We directly imaged the microstructural changes in snow during temperature gradient metamorphism (TGM) under a constant gradient of 50 K m −1 , using in situ time-lapse X-ray micro-tomography. This novel and non-destructive technique directly reveals the amount of ice that sublimates and is deposited during metamorphism, in addition to the exact locations of these phase changes. We calculated the average time that an ice volume stayed in place before it sublimated and found a characteristic residence time of 2–3 days. This means that most of the ice changes its phase from solid to vapor and back many times in a seasonal snowpack where similar temperature conditions can be found. Consistent with such a short timescale, we observed a mass turnover of up to 60% of the total ice mass per day. The concept of hand-to-hand transport for the water vapor flux describes the observed changes very well. However, we did not find evidence for a macroscopic vapor diffusion enhancement. The picture of {temperature gradient metamorphism} produced by directly observing the changing microstructure sheds light on the micro-physical processes and could help to improve models that predict the physical properties of snow.

Description: Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum using hydrological and geophysical methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3621-3643, 2012 Author(s): H. Sulzbacher, H. Wiederhold, B. Siemon, M. Grinat, J. Igel, T. Burschil, T. Günther, and K. Hinsby A numerical, density dependent groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) survey, monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The density dependent groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century, we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and, in particular, the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinisation with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that the spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinisation of the water supply until the end of the current century.

Description: Balancing energy and environmental concerns: the case of the Kayraktepe dam, Turkey Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11769-11789, 2012 Author(s): Ö. Sever, Ş. Tiğrek, and N. Şarlak In this study, an alternative solution for a large dam, namely the Kayraktepe Dam in Turkey, is investigated. The dam was planned for flood control, energy generation and flow regulation for a downstream irrigation project more than 30 yr ago, but until now the project has not begun due to it receiving severe criticism about environmental and social considerations. The project formulation was redeveloped several times in the past but the options were not found to be feasible. In this study, a detailed analysis of the available feasibility studies is provided and then a new formulation, consisting of the proposed one medium dam and five run-of-river type hydropower stations instead of a large scale dam, is evaluated. The new formulation is equivalent to the existing project in terms of energy production and flood control. On the other hand, there are some benefits relative to other configurations as solutions to some of the environmental and social problems being addressed.

Description: Global runoff anomalies over 1993–2009 estimated from coupled Land–Ocean–Atmosphere water budgets and its relation with climate variability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3647-3658, 2012 Author(s): S. Munier, H. Palanisamy, P. Maisongrande, A. Cazenave, and E. F. Wood Whether the global runoff (or freshwater discharge from land to the ocean) is currently increasing and the global water cycle is intensifying is still a controversial issue. Here we compute land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere water budgets and derive two independent estimates of the global runoff over the period 1993–2009. Water storage variations in the land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs are estimated from different types of data sets: atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, satellite altimetry and in situ ocean temperature data (the difference between altimetry based global mean sea level and ocean thermal expansion providing an estimate of the ocean mass component). These data sets are first validated using independent data, and then the global runoff is computed from the two methods. Results for the global runoff show a very good correlation between both estimates. More importantly, no significant trend is observed over the whole period. Besides, the global runoff appears to be clearly impacted by large-scale climate phenomena such as major ENSO events. To infer this, we compute the zonal runoff over four latitudinal bands and set up for each band a new index (combined runoff index) obtained by optimization of linear combinations of various climate indices. Results show that, in particular, the intertropical and northern mid-latitude runoffs are mainly driven by ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) with opposite behavior. Indeed, the zonal runoff in the intertropical zone decreases during major El Niño events, whereas it increases in the northern mid-latitudes, suggesting that water masses over land are shifted northward/southward during El Niño/La Niña. In addition to this study, we propose an innovative method to estimate the global ocean thermal expansion. The method is based on the assumption that the difference between both runoff estimates is mainly due to the thermal expansion term not accounted for in the estimation of the ocean mass. We find that our reconstructed thermal expansion time series compares well with two existing data sets in terms of year-to-year fluctuations but somewhat differs on longer (multi-year) time scales. Possible explanations include non negligible steric variations from the deep ocean.

Description: A bare ground evaporation revision in the ECMWF land-surface scheme: evaluation of its impact using ground soil moisture and satellite microwave data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3607-3620, 2012 Author(s): C. Albergel, G. Balsamo, P. de Rosnay, J. Muñoz-Sabater, and S. Boussetta In situ soil moisture data from 122 stations across the United States are used to evaluate the impact of a new bare ground evaporation formulation at ECMWF. In November 2010, the bare ground evaporation used in ECMWF's operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) was enhanced by adopting a lower stress threshold than for the vegetation, allowing a higher evaporation. It results in more realistic soil moisture values when compared to in situ data, particularly over dry areas. Use was made of the operational IFS and offline experiments for the evaluation. The latter are based on a fixed version of the IFS and make it possible to assess the impact of a single modification, while the operational analysis is based on a continuous effort to improve the analysis and modelling systems, resulting in frequent updates (a few times a year). Considering the field sites with a fraction of bare ground greater than 0.2, the root mean square difference (RMSD) of soil moisture is shown to decrease from 0.118 m 3 m −3 to 0.087 m 3 m −3 when using the new formulation in offline experiments, and from 0.110 m 3 m −3 to 0.088 m 3 m −3 in operations. It also improves correlations. Additionally, the impact of the new formulation on the terrestrial microwave emission at a global scale is investigated. Realistic and dynamically consistent fields of brightness temperature as a function of the land surface conditions are required for the assimilation of the SMOS data. Brightness temperature simulated from surface fields from two offline experiments with the Community Microwave Emission Modelling (CMEM) platform present monthly mean differences up to 7 K. Offline experiments with the new formulation present drier soil moisture, hence simulated brightness temperature with its surface fields are larger. They are also closer to SMOS remotely sensed brightness temperature.

Description: Transient analysis of fluctuations of electrical conductivity as tracer in the stream bed Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3689-3697, 2012 Author(s): C. Schmidt, A. Musolff, N. Trauth, M. Vieweg, and J. H. Fleckenstein Spatial patterns of water flux in the stream bed are controlled by the distribution of hydraulic conductivity, bedform-induced head gradients and the connectivity to the adjoining groundwater system. The water fluxes vary over time driven by short-term flood events or seasonal variations in stream flow and groundwater level. Variations of electrical conductivity (EC) are used as a natural tracer to detect transient travel times and flow velocities in an in-stream gravel bar. We present a method to estimate travel times between the stream and measuring locations in the gravel bar by non-linearly matching the EC signals in the time domain. The amount of temporal distortion required to obtain the optimal matching is related to the travel time of the signal. Our analysis revealed that the travel times increase at higher stream flows because lateral head gradients across the gravel bar become significantly smaller at the time.

Description: Hillslope characteristics as controls of subsurface flow variability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3699-3715, 2012 Author(s): S. Bachmair and M. Weiler Hillslope hydrological dynamics, particularly subsurface flow (SSF), are highly variable and complex. A profound understanding of factors controlling this variability is needed. Therefore we investigated the relationship between variability of shallow water table dynamics and various hillslope characteristics. We ask whether measurable hillslope properties explain patterns of subsurface flow variability. To approach this question, shallow water table dynamics of three adjacent large-scale hillslopes were monitored with high spatial and temporal resolution over 18 months. The hillslopes are similar in terms of topography and parent material, but different in vegetation cover (grassland, coniferous forest, and mixed forest). We expect vegetation to be an important driver of water table dynamics at our study site, especially given the minor differences in topography. Various hillslope properties were determined in the field and via GIS analysis: common topography descriptors, well depth, soil properties via slug tests, and several vegetation parameters. Response variables characterizing the water table response per well were calculated for different temporal scales (entire time series, seasonal scale, event scale). Partial correlation analysis and a Random Forest machine learning approach were carried out to assess the explainability of SSF variability by measurable hillslope characteristics. We found a complex interplay of predictors, yet soil properties and topography showed the highest single explanatory power. Surprisingly, vegetation characteristics played a minor role. Solely throughfall and canopy cover exerted a slightly stronger control, especially in summer. Most importantly, the examined hillslope characteristics explained only a small proportion of the observed SSF variability. Consequently there must be additional important drivers not represented by current measurement techniques of the hillslope configuration (e.g. bedrock properties, preferential pathways). We also found interesting differences in explainability of SSF variability among temporal scales and between both forested hillslopes and the grassland hillslope.

Description: Transition in the fractal geometry of Arctic melt ponds The Cryosphere, 6, 1157-1162, 2012 Author(s): C. Hohenegger, B. Alali, K. R. Steffen, D. K. Perovich, and K. M. Golden During the Arctic melt season, the sea ice surface undergoes a remarkable transformation from vast expanses of snow covered ice to complex mosaics of ice and melt ponds. Sea ice albedo, a key parameter in climate modeling, is determined by the complex evolution of melt pond configurations. In fact, ice–albedo feedback has played a major role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However, understanding melt pond evolution remains a significant challenge to improving climate projections. By analyzing area–perimeter data from hundreds of thousands of melt ponds, we find here an unexpected separation of scales, where pond fractal dimension D transitions from 1 to 2 around a critical length scale of 100 m 2 in area. Pond complexity increases rapidly through the transition as smaller ponds coalesce to form large connected regions, and reaches a maximum for ponds larger than 1000 m 2 , whose boundaries resemble space-filling curves, with D ≈ 2. These universal features of Arctic melt pond evolution are similar to phase transitions in statistical physics. The results impact sea ice albedo, the transmitted radiation fields under melting sea ice, the heat balance of sea ice and the upper ocean, and biological productivity such as under ice phytoplankton blooms.

Description: Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3739-3747, 2012 Author(s): A. Montanari Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long-term fluctuations. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and persistence properties, to gain a better understanding of natural patterns, and in particular long-term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

Description: Albedo of the ice covered Weddell and Bellingshausen Seas The Cryosphere, 6, 479-491, 2012 Author(s): A. I. Weiss, J. C. King, T. A. Lachlan-Cope, and R. S. Ladkin This study investigates the surface albedo of the sea ice areas adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula during the austral summer. Aircraft measurements of the surface albedo, which were conducted in the sea ice areas of the Weddell and Bellingshausen Seas show significant differences between these two regions. The averaged surface albedo varied between 0.13 and 0.81. The ice cover of the Bellingshausen Sea consisted mainly of first year ice and the sea surface showed an averaged sea ice albedo of α i = 0.64 ± 0.2 (± standard deviation). The mean sea ice albedo of the pack ice area in the western Weddell Sea was α i = 0.75 ± 0.05. In the southern Weddell Sea, where new, young sea ice prevailed, a mean albedo value of α i = 0.38 ± 0.08 was observed. Relatively warm open water and thin, newly formed ice had the lowest albedo values, whereas relatively cold and snow covered pack ice had the highest albedo values. All sea ice areas consisted of a mixture of a large range of different sea ice types. An investigation of commonly used parameterizations of albedo as a function of surface temperature in the Weddell and Bellingshausen Sea ice areas showed that the albedo parameterizations do not work well for areas with new, young ice.

Description: Implications of deep drainage through saline clay for groundwater recharge and sustainable cropping in a semi-arid catchment, Australia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1203-1219, 2012 Author(s): W. A. Timms, R. R. Young, and N. Huth The magnitude and timing of deep drainage and salt leaching through clay soils is a critical issue for dryland agriculture in semi-arid regions ( 2000 mm yr −1 ) such as parts of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). In this rare study, hydrogeological measurements and estimations of the historic water balance of crops grown on overlying Grey Vertosols were combined to estimate the contribution of deep drainage below crop roots to recharge and salinization of shallow groundwater. Soil sampling at two sites on the alluvial flood plain of the Lower Namoi catchment revealed significant peaks in chloride concentrations at 0.8–1.2 m depth under perennial vegetation and at 2.0–2.5 m depth under continuous cropping indicating deep drainage and salt leaching since conversion to cropping. Total salt loads of 91–229 t ha −1 NaCl equivalent were measured for perennial vegetation and cropping, with salinity to ≥ 10 m depth that was not detected by shallow soil surveys. Groundwater salinity varied spatially from 910 to 2430 mS m −1 at 21 to 37 m depth ( N = 5), whereas deeper groundwater was less saline (290 mS m −1 ) with use restricted to livestock and rural domestic supplies in this area. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) software package predicted deep drainage of 3.3–9.5 mm yr −1 (0.7–2.1% rainfall) based on site records of grain yields, rainfall, salt leaching and soil properties. Predicted deep drainage was highly episodic, dependent on rainfall and antecedent soil water content, and over a 39 yr period was restricted mainly to the record wet winter of 1998. During the study period, groundwater levels were unresponsive to major rainfall events (70 and 190 mm total), and most piezometers at about 18 m depth remained dry. In this area, at this time, recharge appears to be negligible due to low rainfall and large potential evapotranspiration, transient hydrological conditions after changes in land use and a thick clay dominated vadose zone. This is in contrast to regional groundwater modelling that assumes annual recharge of 0.5% of rainfall. Importantly, it was found that leaching from episodic deep drainage could not cause discharge of saline groundwater in the area, since the water table was several meters below the incised river bed.

Description: Global runoff over 1993–2009 estimated from coupled land-ocean-atmosphere water budgets and its relation with climate variability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4633-4665, 2012 Author(s): S. Munier, H. Palanisamy, P. Maisongrande, A. Cazenave, and E. F. Wood Whether the global runoff (or freshwater discharge from land to the ocean) is currently increasing and the global water cycle is intensifying is still a controversial issue. Here we compute land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere water budgets and derive two independent estimates of the global runoff over the period 1993–2009. Water storage variations in the land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs are estimated from different types of datasets: atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, satellite altimetry and in situ ocean temperature data (the difference between altimetry based global mean sea level and ocean thermal expansion providing an estimate of the ocean mass component). Results for the global runoff from the two methods show a very good correlation between both estimates. More importantly, no significant trend is observed over the whole period. Besides, the global runoff appears to be clearly impacted by large-scale climate phenomena such as major ENSO events. To infer this, we compute the zonal runoff over four latitudinal bands and set up for each band a new index (Combined Runoff Index) obtained by optimization of linear combinations of various climate indices. Results show that, in particular, the intertropical and northern mid-latitude runoffs are mainly driven by ENSO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with opposite behavior. Indeed, the zonal runoff in the intertropical zone decreases during major El Niño events whereas it increases in the northern mid-latitudes, suggesting that water masses over land are shifted northward/southward during El Niño/La Niña. In addition to this study, we propose an innovative method to estimate the global ocean thermal expansion. The method is based on the assumption that the difference between both runoff estimates is mainly due the thermal expansion term not accounted for in the estimation of the ocean mass. Comparison of our reconstructed thermal expansion with two existing datasets shows the relevance of this new method.

Description: Assessing rating-curve uncertainty and its effects on hydraulic model calibration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1191-1202, 2012 Author(s): A. Domeneghetti, A. Castellarin, and A. Brath This study considers the overall uncertainty affecting river flow measurements and proposes a framework for analysing the uncertainty of rating-curves and its effects on the calibration of numerical hydraulic models. The uncertainty associated with rating-curves is often considered negligible relative to other approximations affecting hydraulic studies, even though recent studies point out that rating-curves uncertainty may be significant. This study refers to a ~240 km reach of River Po and simulates ten different historical flood events by means of a quasi-twodimensional (quasi-2-D) hydraulic model in order to generate 50 synthetic measurement campaigns (5 campaigns per event) at the gauged cross-section of interest (i.e. Cremona streamgauge). For each synthetic campaign, two different procedures for rating-curve estimation are applied after corrupting simulated discharges according to the indications reported in the literature on accuracy of discharge measurements, and the uncertainty associated with each procedure is then quantified. To investigate the propagation of rating-curve uncertainty on the calibration of Manning's roughness coefficients further model simulations are run downstream Cremona's cross-section. Results highlight the significant role of extrapolation errors and how rating-curve uncertainty may be responsible for estimating unrealistic roughness coefficients. Finally, the uncertainty of these coefficients is analysed and discussed relative to the variability of Manning's coefficient reported in the literature for large natural streams.

Description: Multimodel evaluation of twenty lumped hydrological models under contrasted climate conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1171-1189, 2012 Author(s): G. Seiller, F. Anctil, and C. Perrin This paper investigates the temporal transposability of hydrological models under contrasted climate conditions and evaluates the added value of using an ensemble of model structures for flow simulation. This is achieved by applying the Differential Split Sample Test procedure to twenty lumped conceptual models on a catchment in the Province of Québec (Canada) and another one in the State of Bavaria (Germany). First, a calibration/validation procedure was applied on four historical non-continuous periods with contrasted climate conditions. Then, model efficiency was quantified individually (for each model) and collectively (for the model ensemble). The individual analysis evaluated model performance and robustness. The ensemble investigation, based on the average of simulated discharges, focused on the twenty-member ensemble and all possible model subsets. Results showed that using a single model may provide hazardous results when the model is to be applied in contrasted conditions. Overall, some models turned out as a good compromise in terms of performance and robustness, but generally not as much as the twenty-model ensemble. Model subsets offered yet improved performance over the twenty-model ensemble, but at the expanse of spatial transposability (i.e. need of site-specific analysis).

Description: Geomorphic hazards and intense rainfall: the case study of the Recco Stream catchment (Eastern Liguria, Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 893-903, 2012 Author(s): F. Faccini, A. Robbiano, and A. Sacchini A critical pluviometric event occurred in the central-eastern Ligurian Riviera, 15 km from Genoa, on 1 June 2007. This event caused landslides and hydraulic problems between Sori and Camogli and in the inland area of the Recco Valley. An analysis of the heavy rainfall was conducted. Hourly precipitation data revealed a critical event between 04:00 a.m. and 07:00 a.m. local time, with more than 220 mm of precipitation over three hours. Slope movements were mainly debris flows that detached from the lateral valleys of the Recco Stream catchment and from well-maintained, wooded slopes that were also characterised by cultivated terraces. Numerous slide planes corresponded to the interface between the surface cover and the underlying bedrock, which presents an unfavourable geologic structure in terms of stability assessment. In most cases, the displaced material had a limited thickness. Debris cover was rapidly channelled along small valleys, which controlled the critical hydraulic conditions in the secondary drainage network. Man-made drainage systems were partially or totally blocked in a very short time and, like the natural watercourses, accumulated thick and extensive alluvial fans. Most of the instability phenomena occurred in areas that had been designated medium or low-risk areas during land planning, and in sectors that were defined as stable, because they lacked geomorphic indicators connected to landslide risks. The above considerations highlight some gaps of the Recco Stream Master Plan. Therefore, to update this land planning tool, it is necessary to extensively investigate local geomorphological characteristics and to adopt a different method for assigning weights to the geohazard maps.

Description: Joint statistical correction of clutters, spokes and beam height for a radar climatology in Southern Germany Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4703-4746, 2012 Author(s): A. Wagner, J. Seltmann, and H. Kunstmann Extensive corrections of radar data are a crucial prerequisite for radar derived climatology. This kind of climatology demands a high level of data quality. Little deviations or minor systematic underestimations or overestimations in single radar images become a major cause of error in statistical analysis. First results of radar derived climatology have emerged over the last years, as data sets of appropriate extent are becoming available. Usually, these statistics are based on time series lasting up to ten years as storage of radar data was not achieved before. We present a new statistical post-correction scheme, which is based on seven years of radar data of the Munich weather radar (2000–2006) that is operated by DWD (German Weather Service). The typical correction algorithms for single radar images, such as clutter corrections, are used. Then an additional statistical post-correction based on the results of a climatological analysis from radar images follows. The aim of this statistical correction is to correct systematic errors caused by clutter effects or measuring effects but to conserve small-scale natural variations in space. The statistical correction is based on a thorough analysis of the different causes of possible errors for the Munich weather radar. This robust analysis revealed the following basic effects: the decrease of rain rate in relation to height and distance from the radar, clutter effects such as remaining clutter, eliminated clutter or shading effects from obstacles near the radar, visible as spokes, as well as the influence of the Bright Band. The correction algorithm is correspondingly based on these results. It consists of three modules. The first one is an altitude correction, which minimizes measuring effects. The second module corrects clutter effects and the third one realizes a mean adjustment to selected rain gauges. Two different radar products are used. The statistical analysis as well as module one and module two of the correction algorithm are based on frequencies of occurrence of the so-called PX-product with six reflectivity levels. For correction module 3 and for the validation of the correction algorithm rain rates are calculated from the 8-bit-depth so-called DX-product. An application (2004–2006) and a validation (2007–2009) of this correction algorithm with rain gauges show a much higher conformity for radar climatology after the statistical correction. In the years 2004 to 2006 the Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) decreases from 262 mm to 118 mm excluding those pair of values where the rain gauges are situated in areas of obviously corrupted radar data. The results for the validation period 2007 to 2009 are based on all pairs of values and show a decline of the RMSE from 322 mm to 174 mm.

Description: Record extension for short-gauged water quality parameters using a newly proposed robust version of the line of organic correlation technique Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4667-4702, 2012 Author(s): B. Khalil and J. Adamowski In many situations the extension of hydrological or water quality time series at short-gauged stations is required. Ordinary least squares regression (OLS) of any hydrological or water quality variable is a traditional and commonly used record extension technique. However, OLS tends to underestimate the variance in the extended records, which leads to underestimation of high percentiles and overestimation of low percentiles, given that the data is normally distributed. The development of the line of organic correlation (LOC) technique is aimed at correcting this bias. On the other hand, the Kendall-Theil robust line (KTRL) method has been proposed as an analogue of OLS with the advantage of being robust in the presence of outliers. Given that water quality data are characterised by the presence of outliers, positive skewness and non-normal distribution of data, a robust record extension technique is more appropriate. In this paper, four record-extension techniques are described, and their properties are explored. These techniques are OLS, LOC, KTRL and a new technique proposed in this paper, the robust line of organic correlation technique (RLOC). RLOC includes the advantage of the LOC in reducing the bias in estimating the variance, but at the same time it is also robust to the presence of outliers. A Monte Carlo study and empirical experiment were conducted to examine the four techniques for the accuracy and precision of the estimate of statistical moments and over the full range of percentiles. Results of the Monte Carlo study showed that the OLS and KTRL techniques have serious deficiencies as record-extension techniques, while the LOC and RLOC techniques are nearly similar. However, RLOC outperforms OLS, KTRL and LOC when using real water quality records.

Description: Multi-criteria parameter estimation for the unified land model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4417-4463, 2012 Author(s): B. Livneh and D. P. Lettenmaier We describe a parameter estimation framework for the Unified Land Model (ULM) that utilizes multiple independent data sets over the Continental United States. These include a satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET) product based on MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Geostationary Operation Environmental Satellites (GOES) imagery, an atmospheric-water balance based ET estimate that utilizes North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric fields, terrestrial water storage content (TWSC) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and streamflow ( Q ) primarily from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges. The study domain includes 10 large-scale (≥10 5 km 2 ) river basins and 250 smaller-scale (

Description: A channel transmission losses model for different dryland rivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1111-1135, 2012 Author(s): A. C. Costa, A. Bronstert, and J. C. de Araújo Channel transmission losses in drylands take place normally in extensive alluvial channels or streambeds underlain by fractured rocks. They can play an important role in streamflow rates, groundwater recharge, freshwater supply and channel-associated ecosystems. We aim to develop a process-oriented, semi-distributed channel transmission losses model, using process formulations which are suitable for data-scarce dryland environments and applicable to both hydraulically disconnected losing streams and hydraulically connected losing(/gaining) streams. This approach should be able to cover a large variation in climate and hydro-geologic controls, which are typically found in dryland regions of the Earth. Our model was first evaluated for a losing/gaining, hydraulically connected 30 km reach of the Middle Jaguaribe River (MJR), Ceará, Brazil, which drains a catchment area of 20 000 km 2 . Secondly, we applied it to a small losing, hydraulically disconnected 1.5 km channel reach in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW), Arizona, USA. The model was able to predict reliably the streamflow volume and peak for both case studies without using any parameter calibration procedure. We have shown that the evaluation of the hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes was fundamental for reducing structural model uncertainties and improving the streamflow prediction. For instance, in the case of the large river reach (MJR), it was shown that both lateral stream-aquifer water fluxes and groundwater flow in the underlying alluvium parallel to the river course are necessary to predict streamflow volume and channel transmission losses, the former process being more relevant than the latter. Regarding model uncertainty, it was shown that the approaches, which were applied for the unsaturated zone processes (highly nonlinear with elaborate numerical solutions), are much more sensitive to parameter variability than those approaches which were used for the saturated zone (mathematically simple water budgeting in aquifer columns, including backwater effects). In case of the MJR-application, we have seen that structural uncertainties due to the limited knowledge of the subsurface saturated system interactions (i.e. groundwater coupling with channel water; possible groundwater flow parallel to the river) were more relevant than those related to the subsurface parameter variability. In case of the WEGW application we have seen that the non-linearity involved in the unsaturated flow processes in disconnected dryland river systems (controlled by the unsaturated zone) generally contain far more model uncertainties than do connected systems controlled by the saturated flow. Therefore, the degree of aridity of a dryland river may be an indicator of potential model uncertainty and subsequent attainable predictability of the system.

Description: Towards an integrated soil moisture drought monitor for East Africa Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4587-4631, 2012 Author(s): W. B. Anderson, B. F. Zaitchik, C. R. Hain, M. C. Anderson, M. T. Yilmaz, J. Mecikalski, and L. Schultz Drought in East Africa is a recurring phenomenon with significant humanitarian impacts. Given the steep climatic gradients, topographic contrasts, general data scarcity, and, in places, political instability that characterize the region, there is a need for spatially distributed, remotely derived monitoring systems to inform national and international drought response. At the same time, the very diversity and data scarcity that necessitate remote monitoring also make it difficult to evaluate the reliability of these systems. Here we apply a suite of remote monitoring techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial evolution of the 2010–2011 Horn of Africa drought. Diverse satellite observations allow for evaluation of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological aspects of drought, each of which is of interest to different stakeholders. Focusing on soil moisture, we apply triple collocation analysis (TCA) to three independent methods for estimating soil moisture anomalies to characterize relative error between products and to provide a basis for objective data merging. The three soil moisture methods evaluated include microwave remote sensing using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) sensor, thermal remote sensing using the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance algorithm, and physically-based land surface modeling using the Noah land surface model. It was found that the three soil moisture monitoring methods yield similar drought anomaly estimates in areas characterized by extremely low or by moderate vegetation cover, particularly during the below-average 2011 long rainy season. Systematic discrepancies were found, however, in regions of moderately low vegetation cover and high vegetation cover, especially during the failed 2010 short rains. The merged, TCA-weighted soil moisture composite product takes advantage of the relative strengths of each method, as judged by the consistency of anomaly estimates across independent methods. This approach holds potential as a remote soil moisture-based drought monitoring system that is robust across the diverse climatic and ecological zones of East Africa.

Description: Modeling water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4381-4416, 2012 Author(s): P. Droogers, W. W. Immerzeel, W. Terink, J. Hoogeveen, M. F. P. Bierkens, L. P. H. van Beek, and B. D. Negewo Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced physical based distributed hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectorial water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 132 km 3 yr −1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km 3 yr −1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection; an increase of 157 km 3 . This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km 3 to 283 km 3 in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.

Description: Fluorescent particle tracers for surface flow measurements: a proof of concept in a semi-natural hillslope Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4465-4503, 2012 Author(s): F. Tauro, S. Grimaldi, A. Petroselli, M. C. Rulli, and M. Porfiri In this paper, a proof of concept experiment is conducted to assess the feasibility of tracing overland flow on a semi-natural hillslope plot via a novel fluorescent particle tracer. Runoff on the experimental plot is artificially simulated by using a custom-built rainfall system. Experiments are performed by using beads of diameters ranging from 75 to 1180 μm that are sensed through an experimental apparatus comprising a light source and a video acquisition unit. Particles' transit is detected through an unsupervised methodology based on image analysis techniques and compared to results from supervised visual inspection. Average flow velocity estimations are obtained from travel time measurements of the particles as they are dragged by the overland flow on the hillslope. Velocities are compared to flow measurements obtained using rhodamine dye. Experimental findings demonstrate the potential of the methodology for understanding overland flow dynamics in complex natural settings. In addition, considerations for optimizing the particle size are presented based on the visibility of the beads and their accuracy in flow tracing.

Description: Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 1367-1404, 2012 Author(s): E. J. Burke, I. P. Hartley, and C. D. Jones Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean temperature (P-GMT). The analysis is based on simulations made with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM2-ES) for a range of representative CO 2 concentration pathways. Results using the high concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) suggest that by 2100 the annual methane (CH 4 ) emission rate is 2–59 Tg CH 4 yr −1 and 50–270 Pg C has been released as CO 2 with an associated P-GMT of 0.08–0.36 °C (all 5th–95th percentile ranges). P-GMT is considerably lower – between 0.02 and 0.11 °C – for the low concentration pathway (RCP2.6). The uncertainty in climate model scenario causes about 50% of the spread in P-GMT by the end of the 21st century, indicating that the effect of permafrost thaw on global mean temperature is currently controllable by mitigation measures. The distribution of soil carbon, in particular how it varies with depth, contributes to about half of the remaining spread in P-GMT by 2100 with quality of soil carbon and decomposition processes contributing a further quarter each. These latter uncertainties could be reduced through additional observations. Over the next 20–30 yr, whilst scenario uncertainty is small, improving our knowledge of the quality of soil carbon will contribute significantly to reducing the spread in the, albeit relatively small, P-GMT.

Description: Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 881-891, 2012 Author(s): A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, I. K. Tsanis, V. Kotroni, and K. Lagouvardos The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events) on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius) of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min) than the non-flood events (25 min), that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

Description: Detailed rock failure susceptibility mapping in steep rocky coasts by means of non-contact geostructural surveys: the case study of the Tigullio Gulf (Eastern Liguria, Northern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 867-880, 2012 Author(s): P. De Vita, A. Cevasco, and C. Cavallo In this study, an engineering geological analysis for the assessment of the rock failure susceptibility of a high, steep, rocky coast was developed by means of non-contact geostructural surveys. The methodology was applied to a 6-km coastal cliff located in the Gulf of Tigullio (Northern Tyrrhenian Sea) between Rapallo and Chiavari. The method is based on the geostructural characterisation of outcropping rock masses through meso- and macroscale stereoscopic analyses of digital photos that were taken continuously from a known distance from the coastline. The results of the method were verified through direct surveys of accessible sample areas. The rock failure susceptibility of the coastal sector was assessed by analysing the fundamental rock slope mechanisms of instability and the results were implemented into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The proposed method is useful for rock failure susceptibility assessments in high, steep, rocky coastal areas, where accessibility is limited due to cliffs or steep slopes. Moreover, the method can be applied to private properties or any other area where a complete and systematic analysis of rock mass structural features cannot be achieved. Compared to direct surveys and to other non-contact methods based on digital terrestrial photogrammetry, the proposed procedure provided good quality data of the structural features of the rock mass at a low cost. Therefore, the method could be applied to similar coastal areas with a high risk of rock failure occurrence.

Description: Reflectance spectra of carbonate minerals in the shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) wavelength regions contain a number of diagnostic absorption features. The shape of these features depends on various physical and chemical parameters. To accurately identify carbonate minerals or rocks in pure and mixed form, it is necessary to analyze the effects of the parameters on spectral characteristics. In this study, we analyzed spectral absorption feature characteristics of calcite and dolomite in the SWIR (features at 2.3 and 2.5 μm) and TIR (features at 11.5 and 14 μm) wavelength regions, as a function of grain size and carbonate mineral mixtures. Results showed that varying grain sizes and mineral contents in the sample, influence reflectance values and absorption feature characteristics. Absorption band positions of pure and mixed calcite and dolomite in the SWIR and TIR regions for both features were displaced slightly as observed in previous studies. The band positions of calcite and dolomite varied relative to grain size only in the TIR region. These positions shifted to longer wavelengths for the feature at 11.5 μm and to shorter wavelengths for the feature at 14 μm from fine to coarse grain size. The band positions of calcite-dolomite mixtures in the SWIR and TIR regions were determined by the quantity of calcite and dolomite in the sample. These results can be applied for the identification of pure and mixed calcite and dolomite, as well as estimating the relative abundance of both minerals with different grain size and mineral mixtures in a synthetic sample or rock. They can also be used as a preliminary proxy for assessing dolomitization patterns in carbonate rocks.

Description: Seasonal speed-up of two outlet glaciers of Austfonna, Svalbard, inferred from continuous GPS measurements The Cryosphere, 6, 453-466, 2012 Author(s): T. Dunse, T. V. Schuler, J. O. Hagen, and C. H. Reijmer A large part of the ice discharge from ice caps and ice sheets occurs through spatially limited flow units that may operate in a mode of steady flow or cyclic surge behaviour. Changes in the dynamics of distinct flow units play a key role in the mass balance of Austfonna, the largest ice cap on Svalbard. The recent net mass loss of Austfonna was dominated by calving from marine terminating outlet glaciers. Previous ice-surface velocity maps of the ice cap were derived by satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) and rely on data acquired in the mid-1990s with limited information concerning the temporal variability. Here, we present continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations along the central flowlines of two fast flowing outlet glaciers over 2008–2010. The data show prominent summer speed-ups with ice-surface velocities as high as 240% of the pre-summer mean. Acceleration follows the onset of the summer melt period, indicating enhanced basal motion due to input of surface meltwater into the subglacial drainage system. In 2008, multiple velocity peaks coincide with successive melt periods. In 2009, the major melt was of higher amplitude than in 2008. Flow velocities appear unaffected by subsequent melt periods, suggesting a transition towards a hydraulically more efficient drainage system. The observed annual mean velocities of Duvebreen and Basin-3 exceed those from the mid-1990s by factors two and four, respectively, implying increased ice discharge at the calving front. Measured summer velocities up to 2 m d −1 for Basin-3 are close to those of Kronebreen, often referred to as the fastest glacier on Svalbard.

Description: Repeat optical satellite images reveal widespread and long term decrease in land-terminating glacier speeds The Cryosphere, 6, 467-478, 2012 Author(s): T. Heid and A. Kääb By matching of repeat optical satellite images it is now possible to investigate glacier dynamics within large regions of the world and also between regions to improve knowledge about glacier dynamics in space and time. In this study we investigate whether the negative glacier mass balance seen over large parts of the world has caused the glaciers to change their speeds. The studied regions are Pamir, Caucasus, Penny Ice Cap, Alaska Range and Patagonia. In addition we derive speed changes for Karakoram, a region assumed to have positive mass balance and that contains many surge-type glaciers. We find that the mapped glaciers in the five regions with negative mass balance have over the last decades decreased their velocity at an average rate per decade of: 43 % in the Pamir, 8 % in the Caucasus, 25 % on Penny Ice Cap, 11 % in the Alaska Range and 20 % in Patagonia. Glaciers in Karakoram have generally increased their speeds, but surging glaciers and glaciers with flow instabilities are most prominent in this area. Therefore the calculated average speed change is not representative for this area.

Description: Dynamic versus static neural network model for rainfall forecasting at Klang River Basin, Malaysia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1151-1169, 2012 Author(s): A. El-Shafie, A. Noureldin, M. Taha, A. Hussain, and M. Mukhlisin Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate model for rainfall forecasting. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have been investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling involves an important temporal dimension. On the other hand, the classical MLP-NN is a static and has a memoryless network architecture that is effective for complex nonlinear static mapping. This research focuses on investigating the potential of introducing a neural network that could address the temporal relationships of the rainfall series. Two different static neural networks and one dynamic neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and input delay neural network (IDNN), respectively, have been examined in this study. Those models had been developed for the two time horizons for monthly and weekly rainfall forecasting at Klang River, Malaysia. Data collected over 12 yr (1997–2008) on a weekly basis and 22 yr (1987–2008) on a monthly basis were used to develop and examine the performance of the proposed models. Comprehensive comparison analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed static and dynamic neural networks. Results showed that the MLP-NN neural network model is able to follow trends of the actual rainfall, however, not very accurately. RBFNN model achieved better accuracy than the MLP-NN model. Moreover, the forecasting accuracy of the IDNN model was better than that of static network during both training and testing stages, which proves a consistent level of accuracy with seen and unseen data.

Description: Geo-hydrological risk management for civil protection purposes in the urban area of Genoa (Liguria, NW Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 943-959, 2012 Author(s): P. Brandolini, A. Cevasco, M. Firpo, A. Robbiano, and A. Sacchini Over the past century the municipal area of Genoa has been affected by recurring flood events and several landslides that have caused severe damage to urbanized areas on both the coastal-fluvial plains and surrounding slopes, sometimes involving human casualties. The analysis of past events' annual distribution indicates that these phenomena have occurred with rising frequency in the last seventy years, following the main land use change due to the development of harbour, industrial, and residential areas, which has strongly impacted geomorphological processes. Consequently, in Genoa, civil protection activities are taking on an increasing importance for geo-hydrological risk mitigation. The current legislative framework assigns a key role in disaster prevention to municipalities, emergency plan development, as well as response action coordination in disaster situations. In view of the geomorphological and environmental complexity of the study area and referring to environmental laws, geo-hydrological risk mitigation strategies adopted by local administrators for civil protection purposes are presented as examples of current land/urban management related to geo-hydrological hazards. Adopted measures have proven to be effective on several levels (planning, management, structure, understanding, and publication) in different cases. Nevertheless, the last flooding event (4 November 2011) has shown that communication and public information concerning the perception of geo-hydrological hazard can be improved.

Description: A simple inverse method for the distribution of basal sliding coefficients under ice sheets, applied to Antarctica The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 1405-1444, 2012 Author(s): D. Pollard and R. M. DeConto Variations in intrinsic bed conditions that affect basal sliding, such as the distribution of deformable sediment versus hard bedrock, are important boundary conditions for large-scale ice-sheet models, but are hard to observe and remain largely uncertain below the modern Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Here a very simple model-based method is described for deducing the modern spatial distribution of basal sliding coefficients. The model is run forward in time, and the basal sliding coefficient at each grid point is periodically increased or decreased depending on whether the local ice surface elevation is too high or too low compared to observed, in areas of unfrozen bed. The method considerably reduces large-scale errors in Antarctic ice elevation, from several 100's to a few 10 m in most regions. Remaining ice elevation errors over mountain ranges such as the Transantarctics are further improved by parameterizing the possible effect of sub-grid topography in the basal sliding law, representing sliding in deep valleys. Results are briefly compared with previous work using relatively sophisticated control methods, and the method is applied to alternate topographies of the Recovery Glacier basin.

Description: Integration of SRTM and TRMM date into the GIS-based hydrological model for the purpose of flood modelling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4747-4775, 2012 Author(s): A. Akbari, A. Abu Samah, and F. Othman Due to land use and climate changes, more severe and frequent floods occur worldwide. Flood simulation as the first step in flood risk management can be robustly conducted with integration of GIS, RS and flood modeling tools. The primary goal of this research is to examine the practical use of public domain satellite data and GIS-based hydrologic model. Firstly, database development process is described. GIS tools and techniques were used in the light of relevant literature to achieve the appropriate database. Watershed delineation and parameterizations were carried out using cartographic DEM derived from digital topography at a scale of 1:25 000 with 30 m cell size and SRTM elevation data at 30 m cell size. The SRTM elevation dataset is evaluated and compared with cartographic DEM. With the assistance of statistical measures such as Correlation coefficient ( r ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBias) or Percent of Error (PE). According to NSE index, SRTM-DEM can be used for watershed delineation and parameterization with 87% similarity with Topo-DEM in a complex and underdeveloped terrains. Primary TRMM (V6) data was used as satellite based hytograph for rainfall-runoff simulation. The SCS-CN approach was used for losses and kinematic routing method employed for hydrograph transformation through the reaches. It is concluded that TRMM estimates do not give adequate information about the storms as it can be drawn from the rain gauges. Event-based flood modeling using HEC-HMS proved that SRTM elevation dataset has the ability to obviate the lack of terrain data for hydrologic modeling where appropriate data for terrain modeling and simulation of hydrological processes is unavailable. However, TRMM precipitation estimates failed to explain the behavior of rainfall events and its resultant peak discharge and time of peak.

Description: Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4777-4825, 2012 Author(s): L. Wang, P. D'Odorico, J. P. Evans, D. Eldridge, M. F. McCabe, K. K. Caylor, and E. G. King Drylands cover about 40% of the terrestrial land surface and account for approximately 40% of global net primary productivity. Water is fundamental to the biophysical processes that sustain ecosystem function and food production, particularly in drylands, where a tight coupling exists between water resource availability and ecosystem productivity, surface energy balance, and biogeochemical cycles. Currently, drylands support at least 2 billion people and comprise both natural and managed ecosystems. In this synthesis, we identify some current critical issues in the understanding of dryland systems and discuss how arid and semiarid environments are responding to the changes in climate and land use. Specifically, we focus on dryland agriculture and food security, dryland population growth, desertification, shrub encroachment and dryland development issues as factors of change requiring increased understanding and management. We also review recent technical advances in the quantitative assessment of human versus climate change related drivers of desertification, evapotranspiration partitioning using field deployable stable water isotope systems and the remote sensing of key ecohydrological processes. These technological advances provide new tools that assist in addressing major critical issues in dryland ecohydrology under climate change

Description: Landslide hazard and land management in high-density urban areas of Campania region, Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 905-926, 2012 Author(s): D. Di Martire, M. De Rosa, V. Pesce, M. A. Santangelo, and D. Calcaterra Results deriving from a research focused on the interplay between landslides and urban development are presented here, with reference to two densely populated settings located in the Campania region, Italy: the city of Naples and the island of Ischia. Both areas suffer adverse consequences from various types of landslides since at least 2000 yr. Our study evidences that, despite the long history of slope instabilities, the urban evolution, often illegal, disregarded the high landslide propensity of the hillsides; thus, unsafe lands have been occupied, even in recent years, when proper and strict rules have been enacted to downgrade the landslide risk. It is finally argued that future guidelines should not be entirely based upon physical countermeasures against mass movements. On the contrary, national and local authorities should enforce the territorial control, obliging citizens to respect the existing regulations and emphasizing the role of alternative, non-structural solutions.

Description: Ground subsidence geo-hazards induced by rapid urbanization: implications from InSAR observation and geological analysis Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 935-942, 2012 Author(s): F. Chen, H. Lin, Y. Zhang, and Z. Lu Due to the convenient transportation and construction, cities are prone to be situated in areas with flat terrain and unstable sediments, resulting in the concurrence of ground subsidence and urbanization. Here the interaction between geology, anthropogenic processes and ground subsidence geo-hazards were investigated in the Greater Pearl River Delta region of China. Geological evidences and 2006–2010 persistent scatterer data indicate that anthropogenic activities are dominant, although the distribution of river system and Quaternary sediments are also highly related to significant displacements (primarily at a rate of −15 to 15 mm a −1 ). The surface displacements derived by synthetic aperture radar interferometry suggest that the urbanization rhythm has to be routinely monitored. Considering analogous urbanization modes, particularly in developing countries, ground subsidence monitoring together with the analysis of its driving force are critical for geo-hazards early-warning, city planning as well as sustainable urbanization.

Description: A cautionary note regarding comparisons of fire danger indices Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 927-934, 2012 Author(s): C. S. Eastaugh, A. Arpaci, and H. Vacik Over the past decade, several methods have been used to compare the performance of fire danger indices in an effort to find the most appropriate indices for particular regions or circumstances. Various authors have proposed comparators and demonstrated different responses of indices to their tests, but rarely has much effort been put into demonstrating the validity of the comparators themselves. We present a demonstration that many of the published comparators are sensitive to the different frequency distributions, that may be inherent in the performance of the different indices, and outline a non-parametric method that may be useful for future work. We compare four hypothetical fire danger indices, three of which are simple mathematical transformations of each other. The hypothesis tested is that the comparators often used in such studies may indicate spurious performance differences between these indices, which is found to be the case. Non-parametric methods are robust to differences in index value frequency distribution and may allow more valid comparisons of fire danger indices. The new comparison method is shown to have advantages over other non-parametric comparators.

Description: Quantifying heterogeneous transport of a tracer and a degradable contaminant in the field, under two infiltration rates Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 4827-4868, 2012 Author(s): D. Schotanus, M. J. van der Ploeg, and S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee To examine the persistence of preferential flow paths in a field soil, and to compare the leaching of a degradable contaminant with the leaching of a non-degradable tracer, we did two field experiments, using a multicompartment sampler. The first experiment was done during the snowmelt period in early spring, characterized by high infiltration fluxes from snowmelt. The second experiment was done in early summer with irrigation to mimic homogeneous rainfall. In the second experiment, the soil was warmer and degradation of the degradable contaminant was observed. For both experiments, the highest tracer concentrations were found in the same area of the sampler, but the leached tracer masses of the individual locations were not highly correlated. Thus, the preferential flow paths were stable between seasons. With a lower infiltration rate, in the second experiment, more isolated peaks in the drainage and the leached masses were found than in the first experiment. Therefore it is concluded that the soil heterogeneity is mainly caused by local differences in the soil hydraulic properties, and not by macropores. With higher infiltration rates, the clustering of high and low leaching cells was higher. The leached masses of the degradable contaminant were lower than the leached masses of the non-degradable tracer, but the masses were highly correlated. The first-order degradation rate was 0.02 d −1 . The dispersivity varied between 1.9 and 7.1 cm. Soil heterogeneity is the main reason for the heterogeneous water flow and solute transport in this soil. Heterogeneous melting of snow does not influence the heterogeneous flow in the soil much at this scale.

Description: Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1221-1236, 2012 Author(s): A. E. Sikorska, A. Scheidegger, K. Banasik, and J. Rieckermann Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

Description: Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 961-977, 2012 Author(s): N. N. Valchev, E. V. Trifonova, and N. K. Andreeva Storms are one of the most important phenomena producing coastal hazards and endangering human life and activities. In recent decades storm climate has become a subject of increased public awareness and knowledge of this issue can help the society to meet future challenges related to extreme storm manifestation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to assess trends in past and recent storminess in the western Black Sea. The analysis of storm climate is based on a continuous hindcast dataset covering a substantial historical time-span of 63 yr (1948–2010). It was used to create a storm population and to estimate properties describing storminess (proxies). This was done by introduction of criteria allowing separation of events with low probability of occurrence and at the same time keeping the information on their pattern, i.e. properties of storm phases. Eleven storminess proxies were analysed and the most indicative appeared to be storm duration; integral, mean and specific storm wave energy; and wind velocity and direction, which were obtained for each storm season. While experiencing significant variability on a quasi-decadal scale, no significant upward or downward trends in storminess were detected. For almost all proxies, an increasing trend until the 1980s or the 1990s and a return to average or even calm conditions in the late 2000s are traceable. On this background, a steady although not significant increase of wind velocity was detected. Results also indicate an alteration of storm pattern, manifested as shortening of storm duration due to a shift of the prevailing direction of storm forcing winds to the north. Nevertheless, incident wave energy in the storms' most intense phase remains significant. The obtained results are discussed with regard to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the hydrometeorological pattern of the Black Sea region as a part of the European-Atlantic area, in particular with respect to the cyclonic activity.

Description: Ice volume distribution and implications on runoff projections in a glacierized catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4543-4556, 2012 Author(s): J. Gabbi, D. Farinotti, A. Bauder, and H. Maurer A dense network of helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements was used to determine the ice-thickness distribution in the Mauvoisin region. The comprehensive set of ice-thickness measurements was combined with an ice-thickness estimation approach for an accurate determination of the bedrock. A total ice volume of 3.69 ± 0.31 km 3 and a maximum ice thickness of 290 m were found. The ice-thickness values were then employed as input for a combined glacio-hydrological model forced by most recent regional climate scenarios. This model provided glacier evolution and runoff projections for the period 2010–2100. Runoff projections of the measured initial ice volume distribution show an increase in annual runoff of 4% in the next two decades, followed by a persistent runoff decrease until 2100. Finally, we checked the influence of the ice-thickness distribution on runoff projections. Our analyses revealed that reliable estimates of the ice volume are essential for modelling future glacier and runoff evolution. Wrong estimations of the total ice volume might even lead to deviations of the predicted general runoff trend.

Description: Remote sensing of sea ice: advances during the DAMOCLES project The Cryosphere, 6, 1411-1434, 2012 Author(s): G. Heygster, V. Alexandrov, G. Dybkjær, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, F. Girard-Ardhuin, I. L. Katsev, A. Kokhanovsky, T. Lavergne, A. V. Malinka, C. Melsheimer, L. Toudal Pedersen, A. S. Prikhach, R. Saldo, R. Tonboe, H. Wiebe, and E. P. Zege In the Arctic, global warming is particularly pronounced so that we need to monitor its development continuously. On the other hand, the vast and hostile conditions make in situ observation difficult, so that available satellite observations should be exploited in the best possible way to extract geophysical information. Here, we give a résumé of the sea ice remote sensing efforts of the European Union's (EU) project DAMOCLES (Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies). In order to better understand the seasonal variation of the microwave emission of sea ice observed from space, the monthly variations of the microwave emissivity of first-year and multi-year sea ice have been derived for the frequencies of the microwave imagers like AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS) and sounding frequencies of AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit), and have been used to develop an optimal estimation method to retrieve sea ice and atmospheric parameters simultaneously. In addition, a sea ice microwave emissivity model has been used together with a thermodynamic model to establish relations between the emissivities from 6 GHz to 50 GHz. At the latter frequency, the emissivity is needed for assimilation into atmospheric circulation models, but is more difficult to observe directly. The size of the snow grains on top of the sea ice influences both its albedo and the microwave emission. A method to determine the effective size of the snow grains from observations in the visible range (MODIS) is developed and demonstrated in an application on the Ross ice shelf. The bidirectional reflectivity distribution function (BRDF) of snow, which is an essential input parameter to the retrieval, has been measured in situ on Svalbard during the DAMOCLES campaign, and a BRDF model assuming aspherical particles is developed. Sea ice drift and deformation is derived from satellite observations with the scatterometer ASCAT (62.5 km grid spacing), with visible AVHRR observations (20 km), with the synthetic aperture radar sensor ASAR (10 km), and a multi-sensor product (62.5 km) with improved angular resolution (Continuous Maximum Cross Correlation, CMCC method) is presented. CMCC is also used to derive the sea ice deformation, important for formation of sea ice leads (diverging deformation) and pressure ridges (converging). The indirect determination of sea ice thickness from altimeter freeboard data requires knowledge of the ice density and snow load on sea ice. The relation between freeboard and ice thickness is investigated based on the airborne Sever expeditions conducted between 1928 and 1993.

Description: Development and evaluation of a global dynamical wetlands extent scheme Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2915-2933, 2012 Author(s): T. Stacke and S. Hagemann In this study we present the development of the dynamical wetland extent scheme (DWES) and evaluate its skill to represent the global wetland distribution. The DWES is a simple, global scale hydrological scheme that solves the water balance of wetlands and estimates their extent dynamically. The extent depends on the balance of water flows in the wetlands and the slope distribution within the grid cells. In contrast to most models, the DWES is not directly calibrated against wetland extent observations. Instead, wetland affected river discharge data are used to optimise global parameters of the model. The DWES is not a complete hydrological model by itself but implemented into the Max Planck Institute – Hydrology Model (MPI-HM). However, it can be transferred into other models as well. For present climate, the model evaluation reveals a good agreement for the spatial distribution of simulated wetlands compared to different observations on the global scale. The best results are achieved for the Northern Hemisphere where not only the wetland distribution pattern but also their extent is simulated reasonably well by the DWES. However, the wetland fraction in the tropical parts of South America and Central Africa is strongly overestimated. The simulated extent dynamics correlate well with monthly inundation variations obtained from satellites for most locations. Also, the simulated river discharge is affected by wetlands resulting in a delay and mitigation of peak flows. Compared to simulations without wetlands, we find locally increased evaporation and decreased river flow into the oceans due to the implemented wetland processes. In summary, the evaluation demonstrates the DWES' ability to simulate the distribution of wetlands and their seasonal variations for most regions. Thus, the DWES can provide hydrological boundary conditions for wetland related studies. In future applications, the DWES may be implemented into an Earth system model to study feedbacks between wetlands and climate.

Description: A simple three-dimensional macroscopic root water uptake model based on the hydraulic architecture approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2957-2971, 2012 Author(s): V. Couvreur, J. Vanderborght, and M. Javaux Many hydrological models including root water uptake (RWU) do not consider the dimension of root system hydraulic architecture (HA) because explicitly solving water flow in such a complex system is too time consuming. However, they might lack process understanding when basing RWU and plant water stress predictions on functions of variables such as the root length density distribution. On the basis of analytical solutions of water flow in a simple HA, we developed an "implicit" model of the root system HA for simulation of RWU distribution (sink term of Richards' equation) and plant water stress in three-dimensional soil water flow models. The new model has three macroscopic parameters defined at the soil element scale, or at the plant scale, rather than for each segment of the root system architecture: the standard sink fraction distribution SSF , the root system equivalent conductance K rs and the compensatory RWU conductance K comp . It clearly decouples the process of water stress from compensatory RWU, and its structure is appropriate for hydraulic lift simulation. As compared to a model explicitly solving water flow in a realistic maize root system HA, the implicit model showed to be accurate for predicting RWU distribution and plant collar water potential, with one single set of parameters, in dissimilar water dynamics scenarios. For these scenarios, the computing time of the implicit model was a factor 28 to 214 shorter than that of the explicit one. We also provide a new expression for the effective soil water potential sensed by plants in soils with a heterogeneous water potential distribution, which emerged from the implicit model equations. With the proposed implicit model of the root system HA, new concepts are brought which open avenues towards simple and mechanistic RWU models and water stress functions operational for field scale water dynamics simulation.

Description: The chemical signature of a livestock farming catchment: synthesis from a high-frequency multi-element long term monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9715-9741, 2012 Author(s): A. H. Aubert, C. Gascuel-Odoux, G. Gruau, J. Molénat, M. Faucheux, Y. Fauvel, C. Grimaldi, Y. Hamon, A. Jaffrézic, M. Lecoz-Boutnik, P. Petitjean, L. Ruiz, and Ph. Merot Assessing the impact of human pressures on water quality is difficult. First, there is a high temporal and spatial variability of climate and human activity. Second, chemical elements have their own characteristics mixing short and long term dynamics. High frequency, long-term and multi-element measurements are required. But, such data series are scarce. This paper aims at determining what the hydro-chemical particularities of a livestock farming catchment are in a temperate climatic context. It is based on an original and never published time series, from Kervidy-Naizin headwater catchment. Stream chemistry was monitored daily and shallow groundwater roughly every four month, for 10 yr and five elements (nitrate, sulphate, chloride, and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon). The five elements present strong but different seasonal patterns. Nitrate and chloride present a seasonal flush, all along or at the beginning of the wet season, respectively. Sulphate, organic and inorganic carbon present storm flushes, with constant or decreasing peaks throughout the wet season. These depicted nitrate and chloride patterns are typical of a livestock farming catchment. There, nitrate and chloride coming from organic fertilisation have been accumulating over years in the shallow groundwater. They are seasonally flushed when the groundwater connects to the stream. Sulphate, organic and inorganic carbon patterns do not seem specific to agricultural catchments. These elements are produced each year and flushed by storms. Finally, a generic classification of temporal patterns and elements is established for agricultural catchments. It is based on the distance of the source component to the stream and the dominant controlling process (accumulation versus production). This classification could be applied to any chemical element and help assessing the level of water disturbances.

Description: Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2935-2955, 2012 Author(s): J.-P. Vidal, E. Martin, N. Kitova, J. Najac, and J.-M. Soubeyroux Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale mitigation.

Description: Fluorescent particle tracers in surface hydrology: a proof of concept in a semi-natural hillslope Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2973-2983, 2012 Author(s): F. Tauro, S. Grimaldi, A. Petroselli, M. C. Rulli, and M. Porfiri In this paper, a proof of concept experiment is conducted to assess the feasibility of tracing overland flow on an experimental hillslope plot via a novel fluorescent particle tracer. Experiments are performed by using beads of diameters ranging from 75 to 1180 μm. Particles are sensed through an experimental apparatus comprising a light source and a video acquisition unit. Runoff on the experimental plot is artificially simulated by using a custom-built rainfall system. Particle transits are detected through supervised methodologies requiring the presence of operators and unsupervised procedures based on image analysis techniques. Average flow velocity estimations are executed based on travel time measurements of the particles as they are dragged by the overland flow on the hillslope. Velocities are compared to flow measurements obtained using rhodamine dye. Experimental findings demonstrate the potential of the methodology for understanding overland flow dynamics in complex natural settings. In addition, insights on the optimization of particle size are presented based on the visibility of the beads and their accuracy in flow tracing.

Description: Natural vs. artificial groundwater recharge, quantification through inverse modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9767-9807, 2012 Author(s): H. Hashemi, R. Berndtsson, M. Kompani-Zare, and M. Persson Estimating the change in groundwater recharge from an introduced artificial recharge system is important in order to evaluate future water availability. This paper presents an inverse modeling approach to quantify the recharge contribution from both an ephemeral river channel and an introduced artificial recharge system based on floodwater spreading in arid Iran. The study used the MODFLOW-2000 to estimate recharge for both steady and unsteady-state conditions. The model was calibrated and verified based on the observed hydraulic head in observation wells and model precision, uncertainty, and model sensitivity were analyzed in all modeling steps. The results showed that in a normal year without extreme events the floodwater spreading system is the main contributor to recharge with 80% and the ephemeral river channel with 20% of total recharge in the studied area. Uncertainty analysis revealed that the river channel recharge estimation represents relatively more uncertainty in comparison to the artificial recharge zones. The model is also less sensitive to the river channel. The results show that by expanding the artificial recharge system the recharge volume can be increased even for small flood events while the recharge through the river channel increases only for major flood events.

Description: Reconstruction of temporal variations of evapotranspiration using instantaneous estimates at the time of satellite overpass Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2995-3010, 2012 Author(s): E. Delogu, G. Boulet, A. Olioso, B. Coudert, J. Chirouze, E. Ceschia, V. Le Dantec, O. Marloie, G. Chehbouni, and J.-P. Lagouarde Evapotranspiration estimates can be derived from remote sensing data and ancillary, mostly meterorological, information. For this purpose, two types of methods are classically used: the first type estimates a potential evapotranspiration rate from vegetation indices, and adjusts this rate according to water availability derived from either a surface temperature index or a first guess obtained from a rough estimate of the water budget, while the second family of methods relies on the link between the surface temperature and the latent heat flux through the surface energy budget. The latter provides an instantaneous estimate at the time of satellite overpass. In order to compute daily evapotranspiration, one needs an extrapolation algorithm. Since no image is acquired during cloudy conditions, these methods can only be applied during clear sky days. In order to derive seasonal evapotranspiration, one needs an interpolation method. Two combined interpolation/extrapolation methods based on the self preservation of evaporative fraction and the stress factor are compared to reconstruct seasonal evapotranspiration from instantaneous measurements acquired in clear sky conditions. Those measurements are taken from instantaneous latent heat flux from 11 datasets in Southern France and Morocco. Results show that both methods have comparable performances with a clear advantage for the evaporative fraction for datasets with several water stress events. Both interpolation algorithms tend to underestimate evapotranspiration due to the energy limiting conditions that prevail during cloudy days. Taking into account the diurnal variations of the evaporative fraction according to an empirical relationship derived from a previous study improved the performance of the extrapolation algorithm and therefore the retrieval of the seasonal evapotranspiration for all but one datasets.

Description: Computer-supported games and role plays in teaching water management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2985-2994, 2012 Author(s): A. Y. Hoekstra There is an increasing demand for an interdisciplinary approach in teaching water management. Computer-supported games and role plays offer the potential of creating an environment in which different disciplines come together and in which students are challenged to develop integrated understanding. Two examples are discussed. The River Basin Game is a common-pool resource game in which participants experience the risk of over-abstractions of water in a river basin and learn how this risk relates to the complexity of the system, the conflict between individual and group optimums and the difficulty in achieving good cooperation. The Globalization of Water Role Play makes participants familiar with the global dimension of water management by letting them experience how national governments can integrate considerations of water scarcity and domestic water productivities into decisions on international trade in commodities like food, cotton and bio-energy. The two examples illustrate that play sessions inspire participants to think about the functioning of systems as a whole and to develop good cooperative courses of action, whereby both uncertainties about the system and the presence of different values and perspectives among participants play a role.

Description: Structural damages observed in state buildings after Simav/Turkey earthquake occurred on 19 May 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2709-2718, 2012 Author(s): Y. S. Tama Different levels of damages occurred in state buildings, especially in educational facilities, during the Simav earthquake ( M L =5.7) on 19 May 2011. A site survey was carried out in the area after the earthquake, where six state buildings were examined in detail. The results of the survey showed that main reasons for the formation of damages in these buildings are the use of low strength concrete, insufficient reinforcement, inappropriate detailing, and low-quality workmanship. The investigated buildings were also evaluated by P25-rapid assessment method. The method demonstrates that two of the buildings in question are in "high risk band"; the other two fall into "detailed evaluation band", and the rest are in the "low risk band". This figure also matches with the damages observed in the site survey.

Description: Multi-criteria parameter estimation for the Unified Land Model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3029-3048, 2012 Author(s): B. Livneh and D. P. Lettenmaier We describe a parameter estimation framework for the Unified Land Model (ULM) that utilizes multiple independent data sets over the continental United States. These include a satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET) product based on MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) imagery, an atmospheric-water balance based ET estimate that utilizes North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric fields, terrestrial water storage content (TWSC) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and streamflow ( Q ) primarily from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges. The study domain includes 10 large-scale (≥10 5 km 2 ) river basins and 250 smaller-scale (

Description: Combining ground-based and airborne EM through Artificial Neural Networks for modelling glacial till under saline groundwater conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3061-3074, 2012 Author(s): J. L. Gunnink, J. H. A. Bosch, B. Siemon, B. Roth, and E. Auken Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) methods supply data over large areas in a cost-effective way. We used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to classify the geophysical signal into a meaningful geological parameter. By using examples of known relations between ground-based geophysical data (in this case electrical conductivity, EC, from electrical cone penetration tests) and geological parameters (presence of glacial till), we extracted learning rules that could be applied to map the presence of a glacial till using the EC profiles from the airborne EM data. The saline groundwater in the area was obscuring the EC signal from the till but by using ANN we were able to extract subtle and often non-linear, relations in EC that were representative of the presence of the till. The ANN results were interpreted as the probability of having till and showed a good agreement with drilling data. The glacial till is acting as a layer that inhibits groundwater flow, due to its high clay-content, and is therefore an important layer in hydrogeological modelling and for predicting the effects of climate change on groundwater quantity and quality.

Description: Effects of rating-curve uncertainty on probabilistic flood mapping Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9809-9845, 2012 Author(s): A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, and A. Brath Comprehensive flood risk assessment studies should quantify the global uncertainty in flood hazard estimation, for instance by mapping inundation extents together with their confidence intervals. This appears of particular importance in case of flood hazard assessments along dike-protected reaches where the possibility of occurrence of dike failures may considerably enhance the uncertainty. We present a methodology to derive probabilistic flood maps in dike-protected flood prone areas, where several sources of uncertainty are taken into account. In particular, this paper focuses on a 50 km reach of River Po (Italy) and three major sources of uncertainty in hydraulic modelling and flood mapping: uncertainties in the (i) upstream and (ii) downstream boundary conditions, and (iii) uncertainties in dike failures. Uncertainties in the definition of upstream boundary conditions (i.e. design-hydrographs) are assessed by applying different bivariate copula families to model the frequency regime of flood peaks and volumes. Uncertainties in the definition of downstream boundary conditions are characterised by associating the rating-curve used as downstream boundary condition with confidence intervals which reflect discharge measurements errors and interpolation errors. The effects of uncertainties in boundary conditions and randomness of dike failures are assessed by means of the Inundation Hazard Assessment Model (IHAM), a recently proposed hybrid probabilistic-deterministic model that considers three different failure mechanisms: overtopping, piping and micro-instability due to seepage. The results of the study show that the IHAM-based analysis enables probabilistic flood hazard mapping and provides decision makers with a fundamental piece of information for devising and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies in the presence of various sources of uncertainty.

Description: Conceptual and numerical modeling of the Guaraní Aquifer System Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9885-9930, 2012 Author(s): L. Rodríguez, L. Vives, and A. Gomez In large aquifers relevant for their considerable size, regional groundwater modeling remains challenging given geologic complexity and data scarcity in space and time. The Guaraní Aquifer System is the largest transboundary aquifer in South America. It contains an enormous volume of water, however, it is not well known being difficult to assess the impact of exploitation currently used to supply over 25 million inhabitants. This is a sensitive issue because the aquifer is shared by four countries. Moreover, an integrated groundwater model, and therefore, a global water balance were not available. In this work, a transient regional scale model for the entire aquifer based upon five simplified, equally plausible conceptual models represented by different hydraulic conductivity parametrizations, is used to analyze the flow system and water balance components. Combining an increasing number of hydraulic conductivity zones and an appropriate set of boundary conditions, the hypothesis of a continuous sedimentary unit yielded errors within the calibration target in a regional sense. The magnitude of the water budget terms resulted very similar for all parametrizations. Recharge and stream/aquifer fluxes were the dominant components representing, on average, 84.2% of total inflows and 61.4% of total outflows, respectively. However, leakage was small compared to stream discharges of main rivers. For instance, the simulated average leakage for the Uruguay river was 8 m 3 s −1 while the observed absolute minimum discharge was 382 m 3 s −1 . Streams located in heavily pumped regions switched from a gaining condition on early years to a losing condition over time. Water is discharged through the aquifer boundaries, except at the eastern boundary. On average, pumping represented 16.2% of inflows while aquifer storage experienced a small overall increment. The model water balance indicates that the current rate of groundwater withdrawals does not exceed the rate of recharge on a regional sense.

Description: Brief communication: Historical glacier length changes in West Greenland The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3491-3501, 2012 Author(s): P. W. Leclercq, A. Weidick, F. Paul, T. Bolch, M. Citterio, and J. Oerlemans Past glacier fluctuations provide insight into glacier dynamics, climate change, and the contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise. Here, the length fluctuations since the 19th century of 18 local glaciers in West and South Greenland are presented, extending and updating the study by Weidick (1968). The studied glaciers all show an overall retreat with an average of 1.2 ± 0.2 km over the 20th century, indicating a general rise of the equilibrium line along the west coast of Greenland during the last century. The rate of retreat was largest in the first half of the 20th century.

Description: Community development and social actor theories: a case study in Montréal (Canada) Social Geography, 7, 37-46, 2012 Author(s): G. Sénécal Research focusing on community development processes is increasingly making use of the notion of actor. Actors are engaged in a system of actions. A range of sociological theories has given rise to the various stances adopted by social actors, including the theatrical actor, the strategic actor, the actor-network, or the reflexive actor. We review these theories in an attempt to define an analytical framework by employing what we call a bricolage methodology. The aim is to gain insight on the interactions that bind together the various stakeholders by function (acting and the actors' roles) in the fields of action (the scenes of interaction and real interventions) and on effects (the results of these actions). We then propose to apply our analytical framework to a case study on the process of developing an action plan in the Villeray district of Montréal (Québec, Canada).

Description: Satellite-Derived Volume Loss Rates and Glacier Speeds for the Cordillera Darwin Icefield, Chile The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3503-3538, 2012 Author(s): A. K. Melkonian, M. J. Willis, M. E. Pritchard, A. Rivera, F. Bown, and S. A. Bernstein We produce the first icefield-wide volume change rate and glacier velocity estimates for the Cordillera Darwin Icefield (CDI), a 2605 km 2 temperate icefield in Southern Chile (69.6° W, 54.6° S). Velocities are measured from optical and radar imagery between 2001–2011. Thirty-seven digital elevation models (DEMs) from ASTER and the SRTM are stacked and a weighted linear regression is applied to elevations on a pixel-by-pixel basis to estimate volume change rates. The CDI lost mass at an average rate of 3.9 ± 0.3 Gt yr −1 between 2000 and 2011, equivalent to a sea level rise (SLR) of 0.01 ± 0.001 mm yr −1 . Thinning is widespread, with concentrations near the front of two northern glaciers (Marinelli, Darwin) and one western (CDI-08) glacier. Thickening is apparent in the south, most notably over the advancing Garibaldi Glacier. We attribute this thinning pattern to warmer temperatures, particularly in the north, which triggered rapid retreat at Marinelli Glacier (~4 km from 2001–2011). Velocities are obtained over many of the swiftly flowing glaciers for the first time. We provide a repeat speed timeseries at the Marinelli Glacier. Maximum front speeds there accelerated from 7.5 m day −1 in 2001 to 9.5 m day −1 in 2003, to a peak of 10 m day −1 in 2011.

Description: Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of Sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3083-3099, 2012 Author(s): H. Xie, L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. R. Scanlon Irrigation development is rapidly expanding in mostly rainfed Sub-Saharan Africa. This expansion underscores the need for a more comprehensive understanding of water resources beyond surface water. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide valuable information on spatio-temporal variability in water storage. The objective of this study was to calibrate and evaluate a semi-distributed regional-scale hydrologic model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) code for basins in Sub-Saharan Africa using seven-year (July 2002–April 2009) 10-day GRACE data and multi-site river discharge data. The analysis was conducted in a multi-criteria framework. In spite of the uncertainty arising from the tradeoff in optimising model parameters with respect to two non-commensurable criteria defined for two fluxes, SWAT was found to perform well in simulating total water storage variability in most areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, which have semi-arid and sub-humid climates, and that among various water storages represented in SWAT, water storage variations in soil, vadose zone and groundwater are dominant. The study also showed that the simulated total water storage variations tend to have less agreement with GRACE data in arid and equatorial humid regions, and model-based partitioning of total water storage variations into different water storage compartments may be highly uncertain. Thus, future work will be needed for model enhancement in these areas with inferior model fit and for uncertainty reduction in component-wise estimation of water storage variations.

Description: Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9931-9966, 2012 Author(s): M. Sharif, D. R. Archer, H. J. Fowler, and N. Forsythe River flow is a reflection of the input of moisture and its transformation in storage and transmission over the catchment. In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), since high altitude climate measurement and observations of glacier mass balance are weak or absent, analysis of trends in magnitude and timing in river flow provides a window on trends and fluctuations in climate and glacier outflow. Trend analysis is carried out using a Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test on records extending from 1960 to 1998. High level glacial catchments show a falling trend in runoff magnitude and a declining proportion of glacial contribution to the main stem of the Indus. Elsewhere annual flow has predominantly increased with several stations exhibiting statistically significant positive trends. Analysis of timing using spring onset date (SOT) and centre of volume date (CoV) indicated no clear trends – in direct contrast to what has been observed in Western North America. There is, however, a consistent relationship between CoV and annual runoff volume. A consistently positive correlation was also found between SOT and CoV for all the stations implying that initial snowpack conditions before the onset of runoff influence timing throughout the season. The results of the analysis presented here indicate that the magnitude and timing of streamflow hydrograph is influenced both by the initial snowpack and by seasonally varied trends in temperature. The study contributes to the understanding of the links between climate trends and variability and river runoff and glacier mass balance and runoff. The Upper Indus Basin is predominantly influenced by winter precipitation; similar trend analysis applied to summer monsoon dominated catchments of the Central Himalaya is recommended.

Description: On the nature of rainfall intermittency as revealed by different metrics and sampling approaches Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9967-10009, 2012 Author(s): G. Mascaro, R. Deidda, and M. Hellies A general consensus on the concept of rainfall intermittency has not yet been reached and intermittency is often referred to different aspects of rainfall variability, including the fragmentation of the wet-dry rainfall support, the strength of intensity fluctuations and of rainfall bursts, and sometimes also to the memory/correlation of the process. To explore these different aspects, a systematic analysis of rainfall intermittency properties in the time domain is presented using high-resolution (1-min) data recorded by a network of 201 tipping-bucket gages covering the entire island of Sardinia (Italy). Four techniques, including spectral and scale invariance analysis, and computation of clustering and intermittency exponents, are applied to quantify the contribution to the overall intermittency due to the alternation of dry and wet periods (i.e. the rainfall support fragmentation), and to the fluctuations of intensity amplitudes. The presence of three ranges of scaling regimes in the time interval from 1 min to ~45 days is first demonstrated. In accordance with past studies, these regimes can be associated with a range dominated by single storms, a regime typical of frontal systems, and a transition zone. The position of the breaking points separating these regimes change with the considered technique, suggesting that such tools explain different aspects of rainfall variability. Results indicate that the intermittency properties of rainfall support are fairly similar across the island, while metrics related to rainfall intensity fluctuations are characterized by significant spatial variability, implying that the local climate has a significant effect on the fluctuations of the rainfall amplitudes and minimal influence on the process of rainfall occurrence. Next, evidence is shown of spatial patterns of the scaling exponents computed, for each analysis tool, in the range of frontal systems. These patterns resemble the main pluviometric regimes observed in the island and, thus, can be associated with the corresponding synoptic circulation patterns. Last but not least, it is demonstrated how the methodology adopted to sample the rainfall signal from the records of the tipping instants can significantly affect the intermittency analysis, especially at smaller scales. The multifractal scale invariance analysis is the only tool that is insensitive to the sampling approach. Results of this work may be useful to improve the calibration of stochastic algorithms used to downscale coarse rainfall predictions of climate and weather forecasting models, as well as the parameterization of intensity-duration-frequency curves, adopted for land planning and design of civil infrastructures.

Description: An updated and quality controlled surface mass balance dataset for Antarctica The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3667-3702, 2012 Author(s): V. Favier, C. Agosta, S. Parouty, G. Durand, G. Delaygue, H. Gallée, A.-S. Drouet, A. Trouvilliez, and G. Krinner We present an updated and quality controlled surface mass balance (SMB) database for the Antarctic ice sheet. We retrieved a total of 5284 SMB data documented with important meta-data, to which a filter was applied to discard data with limited spatial and temporal representativeness, too small measurement accuracy, or lack of quality control. A total of 3438 reliable data was obtained, which is about four times more than by applying the same data filtering process to previously available databases. New important data with high spatial resolution are now available over long traverses, and at low elevation in some areas. However, the quality control led to a considerable reduction in the spatial density of data in several regions, particularly over West Antarctica. Over interior plateaus, where the SMB is low, the spatial density of measurements remained high. This quality controlled dataset was compared to results from ERA-Interim reanalysis to assess model representativeness over Antarctica, and also to identify large areas where data gaps impede model validation. Except for very few areas (e.g. Adelie Land), the elevation range between 200 m and 1000 m a.s.l. is not correctly sampled in the field, and measurements do not allow a thorough validation of models in regions with complex topography, where the highest scattering of SMB values is reported. Clearly, increasing the spatial density of field measurements at low elevations, in the Antarctic Peninsula and in West Antarctica remains a scientific priority.

Description: Parameterization of atmospheric longwave emissivity in a mountainous site for all sky conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3139-3147, 2012 Author(s): J. Herrero and M. J. Polo Longwave radiation is an important component of the energy balance of the Earth's surface. The downward component, emitted by the clouds and aerosols in the atmosphere, is rarely measured, and is still not well understood. In mountainous areas, direct observations are even scarcer and the fitting of existing models is often subjected to local parameterization in order to surplus the particular physics of the atmospheric profiles. The influence of clouds makes it even harder to estimate for all sky conditions. This work presents a long-time continuous dataset of high-resolution longwave radiation measured in a weather station at a height of 2500 m a.s.l. in Sierra Nevada, Spain, together with the parameterization of the apparent atmospheric emissivity for clear and cloudy skies resulting from three different schemes. We evaluate the schemes of Brutsaert, and Crawford and Duchon with locally adjusted coefficients and compare them with a completely parametric expression adjusted for these data that takes into account three possible significant atmospheric states related to the cloud cover: clear, completely covered, and partly covered skies. All the parametric expressions are related to the screen-level values of temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation, which can be frequently found in standard weather stations. Unobserved cloudiness measurements needed for Brutsaert scheme for cloudy sky are also parameterized from screen-level measurements. The calibration performed for a 6-yr period at the study site resulted in satisfactory estimations of emissivity for all the analyzed schemes thanks to the local fitting of the parameterizations, with the best achievement found for the completely parametric expression. Further validation of the expressions in two alternative sites showed that the greater accuracy of the latter can also be found in very close sites, while a better performance of the Brutsaert scheme, with a more physical background and the successful parameterization of the clouds effect, is found in nearby sites outside the initial mountain range. The results show the feasibility for the local calibration of expressions to estimate instantaneous atmospheric emissivity for all sky conditions only using surface data, either with a completely parametric scheme if longwave data are available, or through obtaining of locally fitted coefficients for Brutsaert and derived schemes. Nevertheless, the best performance of the first approach would be at the expense of a reduced local applicability.

Description: Developing Tsunami fragility curves using remote sensing and survey data of the 2010 Chilean Tsunami in Dichato Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2689-2697, 2012 Author(s): E. Mas, S. Koshimura, A. Suppasri, M. Matsuoka, M. Matsuyama, T. Yoshii, C. Jimenez, F. Yamazaki, and F. Imamura On 27 February 2010, a megathrust earthquake of M w = 8.8 generated a destructive tsunami in Chile. It struck not only Chilean coast but propagated all the way to Japan. After the event occurred, the post-tsunami survey team was assembled, funded by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), to survey the area severely affected by the tsunami. The tsunami damaged and destroyed numerous houses, especially in the town of Dichato. In order to estimate the structural fragility against tsunami hazard in this area, tsunami fragility curves were developed. Surveyed data of inundation depth and visual inspection of satellite images of Dichato were used to classify the damage to housing. A practical method suitable when there are limitations on available data for numerical simulation or damage evaluation from surveys is presented here. This study is the first application of tsunami fragility curves on the South American Pacific coast and it might be of practical use for communities with similar characteristics along the west Pacific coast. The proposed curve suggests that structures in Dichato will be severely damaged – with a 68% probability – already at 2 m tsunami inundation depth.

Description: Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2699-2708, 2012 Author(s): S. Corbella and D. D. Stretch The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011) to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

Description: Heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean: sensitivity to cloud physics parameterisation uncertainties Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2671-2688, 2012 Author(s): S. Fresnay, A. Hally, C. Garnaud, E. Richard, and D. Lambert In autumn, southeastern France is often affected by heavy precipitation events which may result in damaging flash-floods. The 20 October and 1 November 2008 are two archetypes of the meteorological situations under which these events occur: an upper-level trough directing a warm and moist flow from the Mediterranean towards the Cévennes ridge or a quasi stationary meso-scale convective complex developing over the Rhone valley. These two types of events exhibit a contrasting level of predictability; the former being usually better forecast than the latter. Control experiments performed with the Meso-NH model run with a 2.5 km resolution confirm these predictability issues. The deterministic forecast of the November case (Cévennes ridge) is found to be much more skilful than the one for the October case (Rhone valley). These two contrasting situations are used to investigate the sensitivity of the model for cloud physics parameterisation uncertainties. Three 9-member ensembles are constructed. In the first one, the rain distribution intercept parameter is varied within its range of allowed values. In the second one, random perturbations are applied to the rain evaporation rate, whereas in the third one, random perturbations are simultaneously applied to the cloud autoconversion, rain accretion, and rain evaporation rates. Results are assessed by comparing the time and space distribution of the observed and forecasted precipitation. For the Rhone valley case, it is shown that not one of the ensembles is able to drastically improve the skill of the forecast. Taylor diagrams indicate that the microphysical perturbations are more efficient in modulating the rainfall intensities than in altering their localization. Among the three ensembles, the multi-process perturbation ensemble is found to yield the largest spread for most parameters. In contrast, the results of the Cévennes case exhibit almost no sensitivity to the microphysical perturbations. These results clearly show that the usefulness of an ensemble prediction system based upon microphysical perturbations is case dependent. Additional experiments indicate a greater potential for the multi-process ensemble when the model resolution is increased to 500 m.

Description: Calibration of a transient transport model to tritium measurements in rivers and streams in the Western Lake Taupo catchment, New Zealand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9743-9765, 2012 Author(s): M. A. Gusyev, M. Toews, U. Morgenstern, M. Stewart, C. Daughney, and J. Hadfield Here we present a general approach of calibrating transient transport models to tritium concentrations in river waters developed for the MT3DMS/MODFLOW model of the Western Lake Taupo catchment, New Zealand. Tritium is a time-dependent tracer with radioactive half-life of 12.32 yr. In the transport model, the tritium input (measured in rain) passes through the groundwater system, and the modelled tritium concentrations are compared to the measured tritium concentrations in the river outlets for the Waihaha, Whanganui, Whareroa, Kuratau and Omori river catchments from 2000–2007. For the Kuratau River, tritium was also measured between 1960 and 1970, which allowed us to fine-tune the transport model. In order to incorporate all surface flows from rivers to small streams, an 80 m uniform grid cell size was selected in the steady-state MODFLOW model for the model area of 1072 km 2 . The groundwater flow model was first calibrated to groundwater levels and stream flow observations. Then, the transport model was calibrated to the measured tritium concentrations in the river waters. The MT3DMS model results show good agreement with the measured tritium values in all five river catchments. Finally, the calibrated MT3DMS model is applied to simulate groundwater ages that are used to construct groundwater age distributions for the river catchments.

Description: Are drought occurrence and severity aggravating? A study on SPI drought class transitions using log-linear models and ANOVA-like inference Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3011-3028, 2012 Author(s): E. E. Moreira, J. T. Mexia, and L. S. Pereira Long time series (95 to 135 yr) of the 12-month time scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) relative to 10 locations across Portugal were studied with the aim of investigating if drought frequency and severity are changing through time. Considering four drought severity classes, time series of drought class transitions were computed and later divided into several sub-periods according to the length of SPI time series. Drought class transitions were calculated to form a 2-dimensional contingency table for each sub-period, which refer to the number of transitions among drought severity classes. Two-dimensional log-linear models were fitted to these contingency tables and an ANOVA-like inference was then performed in order to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions among those sub-periods, which were considered as treatments of only one factor. The application of ANOVA-like inference to these data allowed to compare the sub-periods in terms of probabilities of transition between drought classes, which were used to detect a possible trend in droughts frequency and severity. Results for a number of locations show some similarity between alternate sub-periods and differences between consecutive ones regarding the persistency of severe/extreme and sometimes moderate droughts. In global terms, results do not support the assumption of a trend for progressive aggravation of drought occurrence during the last century, but rather suggest the existence of long duration cycles.