ALBERT

Description: Propagation of Atlantic Ocean swells in the north Indian Ocean: a case study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3605-3615, 2012 Author(s): S. V. Samiksha, P. Vethamony, V. M. Aboobacker, and R. Rashmi An analysis of altimeter significant wave height data of May 2007 revealed the occurrence of an extreme weather event off southern tip of South Africa in the Atlantic Ocean, and generation of a series of very high swells at 40° S. These swells propagated towards northeast and broke over La Réunion island in the Indian Ocean on 12 May 2007. The wave model WAVEWATCH III was used to study the propagation of these swells in the Indian Ocean. The model was validated for the Indian Ocean using moored buoy data at 12 locations and merged altimeter wave data. The wave model accurately reproduced the event of May 2007. Swell heights, of the order of 15.0 m, at the generation area reduced to 6.0 m near La Réunion island. This study shows that the swells generated in the Roaring Forties of the Atlantic Ocean (between 15° to 80° E longitude) propagate in the NE/NNE direction towards the north Indian Ocean, and wave characteristics of the Arabian Sea are least influenced compared to that of Bay of Bengal, when swells from the Atlantic Ocean enter the Indian Ocean. The double peak spectrum extracted for the Bay of Bengal indicates that one of the peaks is due to swells generated off southern tip of South Africa.

Description: Mass balance, runoff and surges of the Bering Glacier, Alaska The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5095-5117, 2012 Author(s): W. Tangborn The historical net, ablation and accumulation daily balances and runoff of the Bering Glacier, Alaska are determined for the 1951–2011 period with the PTAA (precipitation-temperature-area-altitude) model, using daily precipitation and temperature observations collected at the Cordova and Yakutat weather stations, together with the area-altitude distribution of the glacier. The mean annual balance for this 61-yr period is −0.6 mwe, the accumulation balance is +1.4 and the ablation balance is −2.0 mwe. Periodic surges of this glacier transport large volumes of ice to lower elevations where the ablation rate is higher, producing more negative balances and increasing runoff. During the 1993–1995 surge the average ablation balance is −3.3 mwe, over a meter greater than the 1951–2011 average. Runoff from the Bering Glacier (derived from simulated ablation and precipitation as rain) is highly correlated with the four glacier surges that have been observed since 1951. Ice volume loss for the 1972–2003 period measured with the PTAA model is 2.3 km 3 we a −1 and closely agrees with losses for the same period measured with the geodetic method.

Description: Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13609-13634, 2012 Author(s): Y. Hu, S. Maskey, and S. Uhlenbrook Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and the outputs from two global climate models we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the period 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. Interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

Description: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13569-13607, 2012 Author(s): M. H. Ramos, S. J. van Andel, and F. Pappenberger The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

Description: F. S. Costa and E. Capelas de Oliveira We study a time-space fractional wave-diffusion equation with periodic conditions using Laplace transforms and Fourier series and presenting its solution in terms of three-parameter Mittag-Leffler functions. As a particular case we recover a recent result. We also present some graphics associated wi ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 123520 (2012)] published Mon Dec 10, 2012.

Description: Paolo Amore We show that the spectral zeta functions of inhomogeneous strings and drums can be calculated using Rayleigh-Schrodinger perturbation theory. The inhomogeneities that can be treated with this method are small but otherwise arbitrary and include the previously studied case of a piecewise constant den ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 123519 (2012)] published Mon Dec 10, 2012.

Description: Caidi Zhao This paper studies the pullback asymptotic behavior of solutions for a non-autonomous non-Newtonian fluid on Omega=[openface R] x (L,L) for some L 〉 0. We first use the technique of truncation functions together with the decomposition of spatial domain to prove the existence of a pullback attractor ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 122702 (2012)] published Mon Dec 10, 2012.

Description: Ashley Montanaro Hypercontractive inequalities have become important tools in theoretical computer science and have recently found applications in quantum computation. In this note we discuss how hypercontractive inequalities, in various settings, can be used to obtain (fairly) concise proofs of several results in q ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 122206 (2012)] published Mon Dec 10, 2012.

Description: S. S. Man'ko We study Schrodinger operators on star metric graphs with potentials of the form alpha[eh]Q([eh]x). In dimension 1 such potentials, with additional assumptions on Q, approximate in the sense of distributions as [eh] --〉 0 the first derivative of the Dirac delta-function. We establish the convergence ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 123521 (2012)] published Mon Dec 10, 2012.

Description: The first complete inventory of the local \newline glaciers and ice caps on Greenland The Cryosphere, 6, 1483-1495, 2012 Author(s): P. Rastner, T. Bolch, N. Mölg, H. Machguth, R. Le Bris, and F. Paul Glacier inventories provide essential baseline information for the determination of water resources, glacier-specific changes in area and volume, climate change impacts as well as past, potential and future contribution of glaciers to sea-level rise. Although Greenland is heavily glacierised and thus highly relevant for all of the above points, a complete inventory of its glaciers was not available so far. Here we present the results and details of a new and complete inventory that has been compiled from more than 70 Landsat scenes (mostly acquired between 1999 and 2002) using semi-automated glacier mapping techniques. A digital elevation model (DEM) was used to derive drainage divides from watershed analysis and topographic attributes for each glacier entity. To serve the needs of different user communities, we assigned to each glacier one of three connectivity levels with the ice sheet (CL0, CL1, CL2; i.e. no, weak, and strong connection) to clearly, but still flexibly, distinguish the local glaciers and ice caps (GIC) from the ice sheet and its outlet glaciers. In total, we mapped ~ 20 300 glaciers larger than 0.05 km 2 (of which ~ 900 are marine terminating), covering an area of 130 076 ± 4032 km 2 , or 89 720 ± 2781 km 2 without the CL2 GIC. The latter value is about 50% higher than the mean value of more recent previous estimates. Glaciers smaller than 0.5 km 2 contribute only 1.5% to the total area but more than 50% (11 000) to the total number. In contrast, the 25 largest GIC (〉 500 km 2 ) contribute 28% to the total area, but only 0.1% to the total number. The mean elevation of the GIC is 1700 m in the eastern sector and around 1000 m otherwise. The median elevation increases with distance from the coast, but has only a weak dependence on mean glacier aspect.

Description: An opportunity of application of excess factor in hydrology Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13635-13649, 2012 Author(s): V. Kovalenko, E. Gaidukova, and A. Kachalova In last few years in hydrology an interest to excess factor has appeared as a reaction to unsuccessful attempts to simulate and predict evolving hydrological processes, which attributive property is statistical instability. The article shows, that the latter has a place at strong relative multiplicative noises of probabilistic stochastic model of a river flow formation, phenomenological display of which are "the thick tails" and polymodality, for which the excess factor "answers", by being ignored by a modern hydrology in connection to the large error of its calculation because of insufficient duration of lines of observation over a flow. However, it is found out, that the duration of observation of several decades practically stabilizes variability of the excess factor, the error of which definition appears commensurable with an error of other calculated characteristics used in engineering hydrology.

Description: Monitoring methane emission of mud volcanoes by seismic tremor measurements: a pilot study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3617-3629, 2012 Author(s): D. Albarello, M. Palo, and G. Martinelli A new approach for estimating methane emission at mud volcanoes is here proposed based on measurements of the seismic tremor on their surface. Data obtained at the Dashgil mud volcano in Azerbaijan reveal the presence of energy bursts characterized by well-determined features (i.e. waveforms, spectra and polarization properties) that can be associated with bubbling at depth. Counting such events provides a possible tool for monitoring gas production in the reservoir, thus minimizing logistic troubles and representing a cheap and effective alternative to more complex approaches. Specifically, we model the energy bursts as the effect of resonant gas bubbles at depth. This modelling allows to estimate the dimension of the bubbles and, consequently, the gas outflow from the main conduit in the assumption that all emissions from depth occur by bubble uprising. The application of this model to seismic events detected at the Dashgil mud volcano during three sessions of measurements carried out in 2006 and 2007 provides gas flux estimates that are in line with those provided by independent measurements at the same structure. This encouraging result suggests that the one here proposed could be considered a new promising, cheap and easy to apply tool for gas flux measurements in bubbling gas seepage areas.

Description: Hydrogeological settings of a volcanic island (San Cristóbal, Galapagos) from joint interpretation of airborne electromagnetics and geomorphological observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4571-4579, 2012 Author(s): A. Pryet, N. d'Ozouville, S. Violette, B. Deffontaines, and E. Auken Many volcanic islands face freshwater stress and the situation may worsen with climate change and sea level rise. In this context, an optimum management of freshwater resources becomes crucial, but is often impeded by the lack of data. With the aim of investigating the hydrogeological settings of southern San Cristóbal Island (Galapagos), we conducted a helicopter-borne, transient electromagnetic survey with the SkyTEM system. It provided unprecedented insights into the 3-D resistivity structure of this extinct basaltic shield. Combined with remote sensing and fieldwork, it allowed the definition of the first hydrogeological conceptual model of the island. Springs are fed by a series of perched aquifers overlying a regional basal aquifer subject to seawater intrusion. Dykes, evidenced by alignments of eruptive cones at the surface, correspond to sharp sub-vertical contrasts in resistivity in the subsurface, and impound groundwater in a summit channel. Combined with geomorphological observations, airborne electromagnetics are shown to be a useful for hydrogeological exploratory studies in complex, poorly known environments. They allow optimal development of land-based geophysical surveys and drilling campaigns.

Description: Spatial distribution of solute leaching with snowmelt and irrigation: measurements and simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 13451-13490, 2012 Author(s): D. Schotanus, M. J. van der Ploeg, and S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee Transport of a tracer and a degradable solute in a heterogeneous soil was measured in the field, and simulated with several transient and steady state infiltration rates. Leaching surfaces were used to investigate the solute leaching in space and time simultaneously. In the simulations, a random field for the scaling factor in the retention curve was used for the heterogeneous soil, which was based on the spatial distribution of drainage in an experiment with a multi-compartment sampler. As a criterion to compare the results from simulations and observations, the sorted and cumulative total drainage in a cell was used. The effect of the ratio of the infiltration rate over the degradation rate on leaching of degradable solutes was investigated. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the leaching of degradable and non-degradable solutes was compared. The infiltration rate determines the amount of leaching of the degradable solute. This can be partly explained by a decreasing travel time with an increasing infiltration rate. The spatial distribution of the leaching also depends on the infiltration rate. When the infiltration rate is high compared to the degradation rate, the leaching of the degradable solute is similar as for the tracer. The fraction of the soil that contributes to solute leaching increases with an increasing infiltration rate. This fraction is similar for a tracer and a degradable solute. With increasing depth, the leaching becomes more homogeneous, as a result of dispersion. The spatial distribution of the solute leaching is different under different transient infiltration rates, therefore also the amount of leaching is different. With independent stream tube approaches, this effect would be ignored.

Description: Giuseppe Genovese In this work, we give a proof of universality with respect to the choice of the statistical distribution of the quenched noise, for mean field bipartite spin glasses. We use mainly techniques of spin glasses theory, as Guerra's interpolation and the cavity approach. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 123304 (2012)] published Wed Dec 5, 2012.

Description: Koenraad M. R. Audenaert, Milan Mosonyi, and Frank Verstraete In the problem of quantum state discrimination, one has to determine by measurements the state of a quantum system, based on the a priori side information that the true state is one of the two given and completely known states, rho or sigma. In general, it is not possible to decide the identity of t ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 122205 (2012)] published Fri Dec 7, 2012.

Description: Global glacier volumes and sea level – effects of ice below the surface of the ocean and of new local lakes on land The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5169-5179, 2012 Author(s): W. Haeberli and A. Linsbauer The potential contribution of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise is usually calculated by comparing the estimated total ice volume with the surface area of the ocean. Part of this total ice volume, however, does not contribute to sea-level rise, because it is below the surface of the ocean or below the levels of future lakes on land. The present communication points to this so far overlooked phenomenon and provides a first order-of-magnitude estimate. It is shown that the effect is small (most likely 1 to 5 cm sea-level equivalent) but systematic, could primarily affect earlier stages of global glacier vanishing and should therefore be adequately considered. Now-available techniques of slope-related high-resolution glacier-bed modelling have the potential to provide more detailed assessments in the future.

Description: Ewa Felinska, Zbigniew Jaskolski, and Michal Kosztolowicz A flow in the formulation and proof of Lemma 2.7 of E. Felinska, Z. Jaskolski, and M. M. Kosztolowicz, J. Math. Phys. 53, 033504 (2012) is fixed in Sec. I of this Erratum. This has no consequences for the rest of the paper. An essential error was made in Theorems 3.5, 3.6, and Corollary 3.7 of Sec. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 129902 (2012)] published Fri Dec 14, 2012.

Description: K. Deschout and A. B. J. Kuijlaars We consider Angelesco ensembles with respect to two modified Jacobi weights on touching intervals [a, 0] and [0, 1], for a 〈 0. As a --〉 1 the particles around 0 experience a phase transition. This transition is studied in a double scaling limit, where we let the number of particles of the ensemble ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 123523 (2012)] published Fri Dec 14, 2012.

Description: Rong Cheng, Jianhua Hu, and Zhiyong Wang In this paper, we study a class of semilinear elliptic equations which are completely resonant with nonconstant coefficients at origin and at infinity. By applying Morse theory and Minimax method, we obtain the existence of multiple nontrivial solutions for the equations. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 123524 (2012)] published Fri Dec 14, 2012.

Description: Micrometeorological conditions and surface mass and energy fluxes on Lewis glacier, Mt Kenya, in relation to other tropical glaciers The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 5181-5224, 2012 Author(s): L. Nicholson, R. Prinz, T. Mölg, and G. Kaser The Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya is one of the best-studied tropical glaciers, but full understanding of the interaction of the glacier mass balance and climate forcing has been hampered by a lack of long term meteorological data. Here we present 2.5 yr of meteorological data collected from the glacier surface from October 2009–February 2012, which indicate that mean meteorological conditions in the upper zone of Lewis Glacier are comparable to those experienced in the ablation zones of South American tropical glaciers. In the context of other glaciated mountains of equatorial east Africa, the summit zone of Mt Kenya shows strong diurnal cycles of convective cloud development as opposed to the Rwenzoris where cloud cover persists throughout the diurnal cycle and Kilimanjaro where clear skies prevail. Surface energy fluxes were calculated for the meteorological station site using a physical mass- and energy-balance model driven by hourly measured meteorological data and additional input parameters that were determined by Monte Carlo optimization. Sublimation rate was lower than those reported on other tropical glaciers and melt rate was high throughout the year, with the glacier surface reaching the melting point on an almost daily basis. Surface mass balance is influenced by both solid precipitation and air temperature, with radiation providing the greatest net source of energy to the surface. Cloud cover typically reduces the net radiation balance compared to clear sky conditions, and thus the more frequent formation of convective clouds over the summit of Mt Kenya, and the associated higher rate of snow accumulation are important in limiting the rate of mass loss from the glacier surface. The analyses shown here are the basis for glacier-wide mass and energy balance modeling to determine the climate proxy offered by the glaciers of Mt Kenya.

Description: Linyu Peng, Huafei Sun, and Guoquan Xu The complexity of the fractional Brownian motions is investigated from the viewpoint of information geometry. By introducing a Riemannian metric on the space of their power spectral densities, the geometric structure is achieved. Based on the general construction, for an example, whose power spectra ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 123305 (2012)] published Mon Dec 17, 2012.

Description: Climate change effects on irrigation demands and minimum stream discharge: impact of bias-correction method Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4675-4691, 2012 Author(s): J. Rasmussen, T. O. Sonnenborg, S. Stisen, L. P. Seaby, B. S. B. Christensen, and K. Hinsby Climate changes are expected to result in a warmer global climate, with increased inter-annual variability. In this study, the possible impacts of these climate changes on irrigation and low stream flow are investigated using a distributed hydrological model of a sandy catchment in western Denmark. The IPCC climate scenario A1B was chosen as the basis for the study, and meteorological forcings (precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and temperature) derived from the ECHAM5-RACMO regional climate model for the period 2071–2100 was applied to the model. Two bias correction methods, delta change and Distribution-Based Scaling, were used to evaluate the importance of the bias correction method. Using the annual irrigation amounts, the 5-percentile stream flow, the median minimum stream flow and the mean stream flow as indicators, the irrigation and the stream flow predicted using the two methods were compared. The study found that irrigation is significantly underestimated when using the delta change method, due to the inability of this method to account for changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and reference ET and the resulting effects on irrigation demands. However, this underestimation of irrigation did not result in a significantly higher summer stream flow, because the summer stream flow in the studied catchment is controlled by the winter and spring recharge, rather than the summer precipitation. Additionally, future increases in CO 2 are found to have a significant effect on both irrigation and low flow, due to reduced transpiration from plants.

Description: Elevation correction of ERA-Interim temperature data in complex terrain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 4661-4673, 2012 Author(s): L. Gao, M. Bernhardt, and K. Schulz Air temperature controls a large variety of environmental processes, and is an essential input parameter for land surface models, for example in hydrology, ecology and climatology. However, meteorological networks, which can provide the necessary information, are commonly sparse in complex terrains, especially in high mountainous regions. In order to provide temperature data in an adequate temporal and spatial resolution for local scale applications a new elevation correction method has been developed that is able to downscale 3-hourly ERA-Interim temperature data. The scheme is based on model internal vertical lapse rates derived from different ERA-Interim pressure levels and has been validated for twelve meteorological stations in the German and Swiss Alps. The method was also compared with two other statistical, lapse rate based correction approaches. The results indicate that the use of model internal ERA-Interim lapse rates can significantly improve the downscaling performance when compared to the standard procedure of using fixed lapse rates.

Description: State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3435-3449, 2012 Author(s): O. Rakovec, A. H. Weerts, P. Hazenberg, P. J. J. F. Torfs, and R. Uijlenhoet This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km 2 ), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty.

Description: HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?" Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3391-3404, 2012 Author(s): U. Ehret, E. Zehe, V. Wulfmeyer, K. Warrach-Sagi, and J. Liebert Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step) has now become a standard procedure in climate change impact studies. In this paper we argue that BC is currently often used in an invalid way: it is added to the GCM/RCM model chain without sufficient proof that the consistency of the latter (i.e. the agreement between model dynamics/model output and our judgement) as well as the generality of its applicability increases. BC methods often impair the advantages of circulation models by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Currently used BC methods largely neglect feedback mechanisms, and it is unclear whether they are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying BC increases agreement of climate model output with observations in hindcasts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this hides rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of circulation models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future global and regional circulation model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10829-10875, 2012 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is what suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall-runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet decomposition tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall-runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15 min, 30 min, 45 min, 60 min, 90 min and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications on the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the trend in the future is that higher sampling rates will become widespread and there is an urgent need for both academic and practising hydrologists to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting models should be explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Catchment classification based on characterisation of streamflow and precipitation time-series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10805-10828, 2012 Author(s): E. Toth The formulation of objective procedures for the delineation of homogeneous groups of catchments is a fundamental issue in both operational and research hydrology. For assessing catchment similarity, a variety of hydrological information may be considered; in this paper, gauged sites are characterised by a set of streamflow signatures that include a representation, albeit simplified, of the properties of fine time-scale flow series and in particular of the dynamic components of the data, in order to keep into account the sequential order and the stochastic nature of the streamflow process. The streamflow signatures are provided in input to a clustering algorithm based on unsupervised SOM neural networks, providing an overall reasonable grouping of catchments on the basis of their hydrological response. In order to assign ungauged sites to such groups, the catchments are represented through a parsimonious set of morphometric and pluviometric variables, including also indexes that attempt to synthesize the variability and correlation properties of the precipitation time-series, thus providing information on the type of weather forcing that is specific to each basin. Following a principal components analysis, needed for synthesizing and better understanding the morpho-pluviometric catchment properties, a discriminant analysis finally classifies the ungauged catchments, through a leave-one-out cross-validation, to one of the above identified hydrologic response classes. The approach delivers quite satisfactory results for ungauged catchments, since the comparison of the two cluster sets shows an acceptable overlap. Overall results indicate that the inclusion of information on the properties of the fine time-scale streamflow and rainfall time-series may be a promising way for better representing the hydrologic and climatic character of the study catchments.

Description: Land cover and water yield: inference problems when comparing catchments with mixed land cover Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3461-3473, 2012 Author(s): A. I. J. M. van Dijk, J. L. Peña-Arancibia, and L. A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel Controlled experiments provide strong evidence that changing land cover (e.g. deforestation or afforestation) can affect mean catchment streamflow ( Q ). By contrast, a similarly strong influence has not been found in studies that interpret Q from multiple catchments with mixed land cover. One possible reason is that there are methodological issues with the way in which the Budyko framework was used in the latter type studies. We examined this using Q data observed in 278 Australian catchments and by making inferences from synthetic Q data simulated by a hydrological process model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model). The previous contrasting findings could be reproduced. In the synthetic experiment, the land cover influence was still present but not accurately detected with the Budyko- framework. Likely sources of interpretation bias demonstrated include: (i) noise in land cover, precipitation and Q data; (ii) additional catchment climate characteristics more important than land cover; and (iii) covariance between Q and catchment attributes. These methodological issues caution against the use of a Budyko framework to quantify a land cover influence in Q data from mixed land-cover catchments. Importantly, however, our findings do not rule out that there may also be physical processes that modify the influence of land cover in mixed land-cover catchments. Process model simulations suggested that lateral water redistribution between vegetation types and recirculation of intercepted rainfall may be important.

Description: Modeling postfire water erosion mitigation strategies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10877-10916, 2012 Author(s): M. C. Rulli, L. Offeddu, and M. Santini Severe wildfires are often followed by significant increase in runoff and erosion, due to vegetation damages and changes in physical and chemical soil properties. Peak flows and sediment yields can increase up to two orders of magnitude becoming dangerous for human lives and ecosystem, especially in the wildland-urban interface. Watershed post fire rehabilitation measures are usually used to mitigate the effects of fire on runoff and erosion, by protecting soil from splash and shear stress detachment and enhancing its infiltration capacity. Modeling post fire erosion and erosion mitigation strategies can be useful in selecting the effectiveness of rehabilitation method. In this paper a distributed model based on Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), properly parameterized for a Mediterranean basin located in Sardinia, is used to determine soil losses for six different scenarios describing both natural and post-fire basin condition, the last accounting also for the single and combined effect of different erosion mitigation measures. Fire effect on vegetation and soil properties have been mimed by changing soil drainage capacity and organic matter content, and RUSLE factors related to soil cover and protection measures. Model results show for the analyzed rehabilitation treatments their effect in reducing the amount of soil losses with the peculiar characteristics of the spatial distribution of such changes.

Description: Instabilities on Alpine temperate glaciers: new insights arising from the numerical modelling of Allalingletscher (Valais, Switzerland) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2977-2991, 2012 Author(s): J. Faillettaz, M. Funk, and D. Sornette The processes leading to a glacier instability depend on the thermal properties of the contact between the glacier and its bedrock. Assessing the stability of temperate glacier (i.e. the glacier can slide on its bedrock) remains problematic. In order to scrutinize in more detail the processes governing such "sliding" instabilities, a numerical model designed to investigate gravitational instabilities in heterogeneous media was further developed to account for the presence of water at the interface between the bedrock and the glacier for Allalingletscher. This model made it possible to account for various geometric configurations, interaction between sliding and tension cracking and water flow at the bedrock. We could show that both a critical geometrical configuration of the glacier tongue and the existence of a distributed subglacial drainage network were the main causes of the Allalingletscher catastrophic break-off. Moreover, the analysis of the modelling results diagnosed the phenomenon of recoupling of the glacier to its bed followed by a pulse of subglacial water flow as a potential new precursory sign of the final break-off in 1965. This model casts a gleam of hope for a better understanding of the ultimate rupture process resulting from such glacier sliding instabilities.

Description: Seasonal forecasts of drought indices in African basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11093-11129, 2012 Author(s): E. Dutra, F. Di Giuseppe, F. Wetterhall, and F. Pappenberger Vast parts of Africa rely on the rainy season for livestock and agriculture. Droughts can have a severe impact in these areas which often have a very low resilience and limited capabilities to mitigate their effects. This paper tries to assess the predictive capabilities of an integrated drought monitoring and forecasting system based on the Standard precipitation index (SPI). The system is firstly constructed by temporally extending near real-time precipitation fields (ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System-Outgoing Longwave Radiation Precipitation Index, CAMS-OPI) with forecasted fields as provided by the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system and then is evaluated over four basins in Africa: the Blue Nile, Limpopo, Upper Niger, and Upper Zambezi. There are significant differences in the quality of the precipitation between the datasets depending on the catchments, and a general statement regarding the best product is difficult to make. All the datasets show similar patterns in the South and North West Africa, while there is a low correlation in the tropical region which makes it difficult to define ground truth and choose an adequate product for monitoring. The Seasonal forecasts have a higher reliability and skill in the Blue Nile, Limpopo and Upper Niger in comparison with the Zambezi. This skill and reliability depends strongly on the SPI time-scale, and more skill is observed at larger time-scales. The ECMWF seasonal forecasts have predictive skill which is higher than using climatology for most regions. In regions where no reliable near real-time data is available, the seasonal forecast can be used for monitoring (first month of forecast). Furthermore, poor quality precipitation monitoring products can reduce the potential skill of SPI seasonal forecasts in two to four months lead time.

Description: Uncertainty of lateral boundary conditions in a convection-permitting ensemble: a strategy of selection for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2993-3011, 2012 Author(s): O. Nuissier, B. Joly, B. Vié, and V. Ducrocq This study examines the impact of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) in convection-permitting (C-P) ensemble simulations with the AROME model driven by the ARPEGE EPS (PEARP). Particular attention is paid to two torrential rainfall episodes, observed on 15–16 June 2010 (the Var case) and 7–8 September 2010 (the Gard-Ardèche case) over the southeastern part of France. Regarding the substantial computing time for convection-permitting models, a methodology of selection of a few LBCs, dedicated for C-P ensemble simulations of heavy precipitation events is evaluated. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out to evaluate the skill of the AROME ensembles, using different approaches for selection of the driving PEARP members. The convective-scale predictability of the Var case is very low and it is driven primarily by a surface low over the Gulf of Lyon inducing a strong convergent low-level flow, and accordingly advecting strong moisture supply from the Mediterranean Sea toward the flooded area. The Gard-Ardèche case is better handled in ensemble simulations as a surface cold front moved slowly eastwards while increasing the low-level water vapour ahead is well reproduced. The selection based on a cluster analysis of the PEARP members generally better performs against a random selection. The consideration of relevant meteorological parameters for the convective events of interest (i.e. geopotential height at 500 hPa and horizontal moisture flux at 925 hPa) refined the cluster analysis. It also helps in better capturing the forecast uncertainty variability which is spatially more localized at the "high-impact region" due to the selection of more mesoscale parameters.

Description: Compiling geophysical and geological information into a 3-D model of the glacially-affected island of Föhr Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3485-3498, 2012 Author(s): T. Burschil, W. Scheer, R. Kirsch, and H. Wiederhold Within the scope of climatic change and associated sea level rise, coastal aquifers are endangered and are becoming more a focus of research to ensure the future water supply in coastal areas. For groundwater modelling a good understanding of the geological/hydrogeological situation and the aquifer behavior is necessary. In preparation of groundwater modelling and assessment of climate change impacts on coastal water resources, we setup a geological/hydrogeological model for the North Sea Island of Föhr. Data from different geophysical methods applied from the air, the surface and in boreholes contribute to the 3-D model, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (SkyTEM) for spatial mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross-sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An iterative and integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods contributes to reliable data as input for the 3-D model covering the whole island and not just the well fields. The complex subsurface structure of the island is revealed. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations reordered the youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust faulting, as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both subsurface structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater-bearing aquifers. A digital geological 3-D model reproduces the hydrogeological structure of the island as a base for a groundwater model. In the course of the data interpretation, we deliver a basis for rock identification. We demonstrate that geophysical investigation provide petrophysical parameters and improve the understanding of the subsurface and the groundwater system. The main benefit of our work is that the successful combination of electromagnetic, seismic and borehole data reveals the complex geology of a glacially-affected island. A sound understanding of the subsurface structure and the compilation of a 3-D model is imperative and the basis for a groundwater flow model to predict climate change effects on future water resources.

Description: A century of ice retreat on Kilimanjaro: the mapping reloaded The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4233-4265, 2012 Author(s): N. J. Cullen, P. Sirguey, T. Mölg, G. Kaser, M. Winkler, and S. J. Fitzsimons A new and consistent time series of glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro over the last century has been established by re-interpreting two historical maps and processing nine satellite images, which removes uncertainty about the location and extent of past and present ice bodies. Three-dimensional visualization techniques were used in conjunction with aerial and ground-based photography to facilitate the interpretation of ice boundaries over eight epochs between 1912 and 2011. The glaciers have retreated from their former extent of 11.40 km 2 in 1912 to 1.76 km 2 in 2011, which represents a total loss of about 85% of the ice cover over the last 100 yr. The total loss of ice cover is in broad agreement with previous estimates but to further characterize the spatial and temporal variability of glacier retreat a cluster analysis using topographical information (elevation, slope and aspect) was performed to segment the ice cover as observed in 1912, which resulted in three glacier zones being identified. Linear extrapolation of the retreat in each of the three identified glacier assemblages imply the ice cover on the western slopes of Kilimanjaro will be gone before 2020, while the remaining ice bodies on the plateau and southern slopes will most likely disappear by 2040. It is highly unlikely that any body of ice will be present on Kilimanjaro after 2060 if present-day climatological conditions are maintained. Importantly, the geo-statistical approach developed in this study provides us with an additional tool to characterize the physical processes governing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro. It remains clear that to use glacier response to unravel past climatic conditions on Kilimanjaro the transition from growth to decay of the plateau glaciers must be further resolved, in particular the mechanisms responsible for vertical cliff development.

Description: Inhomogeneous snow distribution and depletion patterns at grid scale in a shallow snowpack region The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4171-4203, 2012 Author(s): H. Li, J. Wang, Z. Tang, and J. Wang Understanding inhomogeneous snow processes at the grid scale is crucial for distributed snow hydrology research. Many studies on inhomogeneous snow processes focus on the annual similarity of snow distribution and depletion and the roles of topography and other environmental conditions. In contrast, this study examines the snow distribution and depletion patterns at a small grid scale in a shallow snowpack region and analyzes how meteorological factors influence these patterns by using the SNOWPACK model for scenario simulations. These simulations enable quantification of the role of three main meteorological factors: shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and air temperature. The study region is located in the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau. The results of the study indicate the following two points. (1) During different snowmelt periods, spatial similarity exists between the periodical cumulative snow distributions, and the relationships between snow cover fraction and mean snow water equivalent are similar. However, this similarity is not applicable to the period before snowmelt. (2) Shortwave radiation has a~major impact on the snow distribution and depletion patterns at the small grid scale. Increasing shortwave radiation can greatly promote the heterogeneity of the snow distribution. The contributions of longwave radiation and air temperature to the heterogeneity of snow distribution are minor. Moreover, there are similarities between the simulated snow distributions when considering the scenarios of increases in longwave radiation or in air temperature.

Description: Glacier changes from 1966–2009 in the Gongga Mountains, on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and their climatic forcing The Cryosphere, 6, 1087-1101, 2012 Author(s): B. T. Pan, G. L. Zhang, J. Wang, B. Cao, H. P. Geng, J. Wang, C. Zhang, and Y. P. Ji In order to monitor the changes of the glaciers in the Gongga Mountain region on the south-eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, 74 monsoonal temperate glaciers were investigated by comparing the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI), recorded in the 1960s, with Landsat MSS in 1974, Landsat TM in 1989, 1994, 2005, and ASTER data in 2009. The remote sensing data have been applied to map the glacier outline by threshold ratio images (TM4/TM5). Moreover, the glacier outlines were verified by GPS survey on four large glaciers (Hailuogou (HLG), Mozigou (MZG), Yanzigou (YZG), and Dagongba (DGB)) in 2009. The results show that the area dominated by the 74 glaciers has shrunk by 11.3% (29.2 km 2 ) from 1966 to 2009. Glacier area on the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains decreased by 9.8% and 14.6% since 1966, respectively. The loss in glacier area and length is, respectively, 0.8 km 2 and 1146.4 m for the HLG Glacier, 2.1 km 2 and 501.8 m for the MZG Glacier, 0.8 km 2 and 724.8 m for the YZG Glacier, and 2.4 km 2 and 1002.3 m for the DGB Glacier. Decades of climate records obtained from three meteorological stations in the Gongga Mountains were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the temperature and precipitation on glacier retreat. The mean annual temperatures over the eastern and western slopes of the Gongga Mountains have been increasing by 0.34 K decade −1 and 0.24 K decade −1 (1988–2009), respectively. Moreover, mean annual precipitation has only increased by 1% in the past 50 yr. The increasing amount of precipitation could not compensate for the glacier mass loss due to the temperature increase in the Gongga Mountains. This suggests that the warming of the climate is probably also responsible for the glacier retreat in the study region. At the region scale, glacier changes were also controlled by local topographical factors.

Description: Multi-satellite rainfall sampling error estimates – a comparative study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11677-11706, 2012 Author(s): M. Itkin and A. Loew This study focus is set on quantifying sampling related uncertainty in the satellite rainfall estimates. We conduct observing system simulation experiment to estimate sampling error for various constellations of Low-Earth orbiting and geostationary satellites. There are two types of microwave instruments currently available: cross track sounders and conical scanners. We evaluate the differences in sampling uncertainty for various satellite constellations that carry instruments of the common type as well as in combination with geostationary observations. A precise orbital model is used to simulate realistic satellite overpasses with orbital shifts taken into account. With this model we resampled rain gauge timeseries to simulate satellites rainfall estimates free of retrieval and calibration errors. We concentrate on two regions, Germany and Benin, areas with different precipitation regimes. Our results show that sampling uncertainty for all satellite constellations does not differ greatly depending on the area despite the differences in local precipitation patterns. Addition of 3 hourly geostationary observations provides equal performance improvement in Germany and Benin, reducing rainfall undersampling by 20–25% of the total rainfall amount. Authors do not find a significant difference in rainfall sampling between conical imager and cross-track sounders.

Description: Soil moisture controls on patterns of grass green-up in Inner Mongolia: an index based approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11641-11675, 2012 Author(s): H. Liu, F. Tian, H. Hu, H. Hu, and M. Sivapalan Water availability is one of the most important environmental controls on vegetation phenology, especially in semi-arid regions, and is often represented in terms of soil moisture in small-scale studies whereas it tends to be represented by precipitation in large-scale (e.g. regional) studies. Clearly, soil moisture is the more appropriate indicator for root water uptake and vegetation growth/phenology and therefore its potential advantage and applicability needs to be demonstrated at regional scales. This paper represents a data-based regional study of the effectiveness of alternative indices based on water and energy availability on space-time patterns of spring vegetation green-up onset dates estimated from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets in the grasslands of Inner Mongolia, China. The macro-scale hydrological model, VIC, is employed to generate a soil moisture database across the region. In addition to standard index based on temperature, two potential hydrology based indices for prediction of spring onset dates are defined based on the simulated soil moisture data as well as on observed precipitation data. Results indicate that the correspondence between the NDVI-derived green-up onset date and the soil moisture derived potential onset date exhibits a significantly better correlation as a function of increasing aridity, compared to that based on precipitation. In this way the soil moisture based index is demonstrated to be superior to the precipitation based index in terms of capturing grassland spring phenology. The results also showed that both of the hydrological (water based) indices were superior to the thermal (temperature based) index in determining the patterns of grass green-up in the Inner Mongolia region, indicating water availability to be the dominant control, on average. The understanding about the relative controls on grassland phenology, and the effectiveness of alternative indices to capture these controls, are important for future studies and predictions of vegetation phenology change under climate change.

Description: Jean-Claude Saut, Roger Temam, and Chuntian Wang Motivated by the study of boundary control problems for the Zakharov-Kuznetsov equation, we study in this article the initial and boundary value problem for the ZK (short for Zakharov-Kuznetsov) equation posed in a limited domain Omega = (0, 1) x (pi/2, pi/2), d = 1, 2. This article is related to ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 115612 (2012)] published Fri Oct 12, 2012.

Description: Darryl D. Holm and Cesare Tronci The Euler-Poincare approach to complex fluids is used to derive multiscale equations for computationally modeling Euler flows as a basis for modeling turbulence. The model is based on a kinematic sweeping ansatz (KSA) which assumes that the mean fluid flow serves as a Lagrangian frame of motion for ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 115614 (2012)] published Fri Oct 12, 2012.

Description: R. Dascaliuc and Z. Grujic A mathematical evidencein a statistically significant senseof a geometric scenario leading to criticality of the Navier-Stokes problem is presented. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 115613 (2012)] published Fri Oct 12, 2012.

Description: Weinan E and Jianfeng Lu The continuum limit of the spin-polarized Thomas-Fermi-Dirac-von Weizsacker model in an external magnetic field is studied. An extension of the classical Cauchy-Born rule for crystal lattices is established for the electronic structure under sharp stability conditions on charge density and spin dens ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 115615 (2012)] published Fri Oct 12, 2012.

Description: Accelerated contributions of Canada's Baffin and Bylot Island glaciers to sea level rise over the past half century The Cryosphere, 6, 1103-1125, 2012 Author(s): A. Gardner, G. Moholdt, A. Arendt, and B. Wouters Canadian Arctic glaciers have recently contributed large volumes of meltwater to the world's oceans. To place recently observed glacier wastage into a historical perspective and to determine the region's longer-term (~50 years) contribution to sea level, we estimate mass and volume changes for the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands using digital elevation models generated from airborne and satellite stereoscopic imagery and elevation postings from repeat airborne and satellite laser altimetry. In addition, we update existing glacier mass change records from GRACE satellite gravimetry to cover the period from 2003 to 2011. Using this integrated approach, we find that the rate of mass loss from the region's glaciers increased from 11.1 ± 3.4 Gt a −1 (271 ± 84 kg m −2 a −1 ) for the period 1963–2006 to 23.8 ± 6.1 Gt a −1 (581 ± 149 kg m −2 a −1 ) for the period 2003–2011. The doubling of the rate of mass loss is attributed to higher temperatures in summer with little change in annual precipitation. Through both direct and indirect effects, changes in summer temperatures accounted for 70–98% of the variance in the rate of mass loss, to which the Barnes Ice Cap was found to be 1.7 times more sensitive than either the Penny Ice Cap or the region's glaciers as a whole. This heightened sensitivity is the result of a glacier hypsometry that is skewed to lower elevations, which are shown to have a higher mass change sensitive to temperature compared to glacier surfaces at higher elevations. Between 2003 and 2011 the glaciers of Baffin and Bylot Islands contributed 0.07 ± 0.02 mm a −1 to sea level rise accounting for 16% of the total contribution from glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica, a rate much higher than the longer-term average of 0.03 ± 0.01 mm a −1 (1963 to 2006).

Description: Thinning and slowdown of Greenland's Mittivakkat Gletscher The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4387-4415, 2012 Author(s): S. H. Mernild, N. T. Knudsen, M. J. Hoffman, J. C. Yde, W. H. Lipscomb, E. Hanna, J. K. Malmros, and R. S. Fausto Here, we document changes for the Mittivakkat Gletscher, the glacier in Greenland (disconnected to the Greenland Ice Sheet, GrIS) having the longest observed mass balance and surface velocity time series (since 1995). Between 1986 and 2011, this glacier decreased by 15% in mean ice thickness and 30% in volume. We attribute these changes to summer warming and less winter snowfall. The vertical strain was able to compensate about 60% of the elevation change due to surface mass balance (SMB) in the lower part, and about 25% in the upper part. The annual mean ice surface velocity decreased by 30%, likely as a dynamic effect of ice thinning. Mittivakkat Gletscher summer surface velocities were on average 50–60% above winter background values, and up to 160% higher during peak velocity events.

Description: Variability of light transmission through Arctic land-fast sea ice during spring The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4363-4385, 2012 Author(s): M. Nicolaus, C. Petrich, S. R. Hudson, and M. A. Granskog The amount of solar radiation transmitted through Arctic sea ice is determined by the thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice. Light transmittance is highly variable in space and time since thickness and physical properties of snow and sea ice are highly heterogeneous on variable time and length scales. We present field measurements of under-ice irradiance along repeated (March, May, June 2010) transects under un-deformed land-fast sea ice at Barrow, Alaska. The objective was to quantify seasonal evolution and spatial variability of light transmittance through snow and sea ice. Along with optical measurements, snow depth, sea ice thickness, and freeboard were recorded, and ice cores were analyzed for Chlorophyll a and particulate matter. Our results show that snow cover variability prior to onset of snow melt may cause as much spatial variability of relative light transmittance as the contrast of ponded and white ice during summer. In both instances, a spatial variability of up to three times above and below the mean was measured. In addition, we found a thirtyfold increase of light transmittance as a result of partial snowmelt. Hence, the seasonal evolution of transmittance through sea ice exceeded the spatial variability. Nevertheless, more comprehensive under-ice radiation measurements are needed for a more generalized and large-scale understanding of the under-ice energy budget for physical, biological, and geochemical applications.

Description: Response to recharge variation of thin rainwater lenses and their mixing zone with underlying saline groundwater Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3535-3549, 2012 Author(s): S. Eeman, S. E. A. T. M. van der Zee, A. Leijnse, P. G. B. de Louw, and C. Maas In coastal zones with saline groundwater, fresh groundwater lenses may form due to infiltration of rain water. The thickness of both the lens and the mixing zone, determines fresh water availability for plant growth. Due to recharge variation, the thickness of the lens and the mixing zone are not constant, which may adversely affect agricultural and natural vegetation if saline water reaches the root zone during the growing season. In this paper, we study the response of thin lenses and their mixing zone to variation of recharge. The recharge is varied using sinusoids with a range of amplitudes and frequencies. We vary lens characteristics by varying the Rayleigh number and Mass flux ratio of saline and fresh water, as these dominantly influence the thickness of thin lenses and their mixing zone. Numerical results show a linear relation between the normalised lens volume and the main lens and recharge characteristics, enabling an empirical approximation of the variation of lens thickness. Increase of the recharge amplitude causes increase and the increase of recharge frequency causes a decrease in the variation of lens thickness. The average lens thickness is not significantly influenced by these variations in recharge, contrary to the mixing zone thickness. The mixing zone thickness is compared to that of a Fickian mixing regime. A simple relation between the travelled distance of the centre of the mixing zone position due to variations in recharge and the mixing zone thickness is shown to be valid for both a sinusoidal recharge variation and actual records of daily recharge data. Starting from a step response function, convolution can be used to determine the effect of variable recharge in time. For a sinusoidal curve, we can determine delay of lens movement compared to the recharge curve as well as the lens amplitude, derived from the convolution integral. Together the proposed equations provide us with a first order approximation of lens characteristics using basic lens and recharge parameters without the use of numerical models. This enables the assessment of the vulnerability of any thin fresh water lens on saline, upward seeping groundwater to salinity stress in the root zone.

Description: Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3551-3559, 2012 Author(s): M. Angulo-Martínez and S. Beguería Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain) is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO).

Description: Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3059-3073, 2012 Author(s): N. K. Meyer, A. V. Dyrrdal, R. Frauenfelder, B. Etzelmüller, and F. Nadim Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN). For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day −1 . Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day −1 . The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

Description: Lizhi Ruan and Haiyan Yin The aim of this paper is to study the global unique solvability on C-solution to the Cauchy problem of a special 2 x 2 nonlinear hyperbolic system with damping and diffusion. Furthermore, we also investigate the convergence rates as the diffusion parameter beta goes to zero. It is shown that the c ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 103703 (2012)] published Mon Sep 24, 2012.

Description: Ioana Dumitriu We compute the exact and limiting smallest eigenvalue distributions for two classes of beta-Jacobi ensembles not covered by previous studies. In the general beta case, these distributions are given by multivariate hypergeometric F functions, whose behavior can be analyzed asymptotically for special ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 103301 (2012)] published Mon Sep 24, 2012.

Description: On the utility of land surface models for agricultural drought monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3451-3460, 2012 Author(s): W. T. Crow, S. V. Kumar, and J. D. Bolten The lagged rank cross-correlation between model-derived root-zone soil moisture estimates and remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI) is examined between January 2000 and December 2010 to quantify the skill of various soil moisture models for agricultural drought monitoring. Examined modeling strategies range from a simple antecedent precipitation index to the application of modern land surface models (LSMs) based on complex water and energy balance formulations. A quasi-global evaluation of lagged VI/soil moisture cross-correlation suggests, when globally averaged across the entire annual cycle, soil moisture estimates obtained from complex LSMs provide little added skill ( 〈 5% in relative terms) in anticipating variations in vegetation condition relative to a simplified water accounting procedure based solely on observed precipitation. However, larger amounts of added skill (5–15% in relative terms) can be identified when focusing exclusively on the extra-tropical growing season and/or utilizing soil moisture values acquired by averaging across a multi-model ensemble.

Description: Acid-base characteristics of the Grass Pond watershed in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State, USA: interactions between soil, vegetation and surface waters Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10775-10803, 2012 Author(s): K. M. McEathron, M. J. Mitchell, and L. Zhang Grass Pond watershed is located within the Southwestern Adirondack Mountain region of New York State, USA. This region receives some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in North America and is particularly sensitive to acidic inputs due to many of its soils having shallow depths and being generally base-poor. Differences in soil chemistry and tree species between seven subwatersheds were examined in relation to acid-base characteristics of the seven major streams that drain into Grass Pond. Mineral soil pH, stream water BCS and pH exhibited a positive correlation with sugar maple basal area ( p = 0.055; 0.48 and 0.39, respectively). Black cherry basal area was inversely correlated with stream water BCS, ANC c and NO 3 – ( p = 0.23; 0.24 and 0.20, respectively). Sugar maple basal areas were positively correlated with watershed characteristics associated with the neutralization of atmospheric acidic inputs while in contrast, black cherry basal areas showed opposite relationships to these same watershed characteristics. Canonical Correspondence Analysis indicated that black cherry had a distinctive relationship with forest floor chemistry apart from the other tree species, specifically a strong positive association with forest floor NH 4 while sugar maple had a distinctive relationship with stream chemistry variables, specifically a strong positive association with stream water ANC c , BCS and pH. Our results provide evidence that sugar maple is acid-intolerant or calciphilic tree species and also demonstrate that black cherry is likely an acid-tolerant tree species.

Description: Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3419-3434, 2012 Author(s): O. Rakovec, P. Hazenberg, P. J. J. F. Torfs, A. H. Weerts, and R. Uijlenhoet Sound spatially distributed rainfall fields including a proper spatial and temporal error structure are of key interest for hydrologists to force hydrological models and to identify uncertainties in the simulated and forecasted catchment response. The current paper presents a temporally coherent error identification method based on time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulations, which are conditioned on preceding simulations. A sensitivity analysis and real-world experiment are carried out within the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. Precipitation fields are simulated for pixels of 10 km × 10 km resolution. Uncertainty analyses in the simulated fields focus on (1) the number of previous simulation hours on which the new simulation is conditioned, (2) the advection speed of the rainfall event, (3) the size of the catchment considered, and (4) the rain gauge density within the catchment. The results for a sensitivity analysis show for typical advection speeds 〉20 km h −1 , no uncertainty is added in terms of across ensemble spread when conditioned on more than one or two previous hourly simulations. However, for the real-world experiment, additional uncertainty can still be added when conditioning on a larger number of previous simulations. This is because for actual precipitation fields, the dynamics exhibit a larger spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, by thinning the observation network with 50%, the added uncertainty increases only slightly and the cross-validation shows that the simulations at the unobserved locations are unbiased. Finally, the first-order autocorrelation coefficients show clear temporal coherence in the time series of the areal precipitation using the time-dependent multivariate conditional simulations, which was not the case using the time-independent univariate conditional simulations. The presented work can be easily implemented within a hydrological calibration and data assimilation framework and can be used as an improvement over currently used simplistic approaches to perturb the interpolated point or spatially distributed precipitation estimates.

Description: Brief communication "Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet" The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4101-4122, 2012 Author(s): X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, C. Lang, A. Belleflamme, M. Erpicum, and H. Gallée Since 2007, there has been a succession of surface melt records over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in continuity of the trend observed since the end of the 1990s towards increasing melt. But, these last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on the daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of the atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration since 20 yr. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June-July-August) mean temperature at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that ~70% of the 1992–2011 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones in surface and at 500 hPa centred over the GrIS has doubled since the end of 1990s which induces southerly warm air advection along the Western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian islands. These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last five summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are more frequent than before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over Greenland, Ellesmere and Baffin Islands can not be considered as a long term climate warming but are more rather a consequence of the NAO variability impacting the atmospheric heat transport. While no global model from the CMIP5 database projects consequent changes in NAO through this century, we can not exclude that these changes in NAO are due to global warming.

Description: Surface deformation detected by the space-observed small baseline SAR interferometry over permafrost environment in Tibet Plateau, China The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4071-4099, 2012 Author(s): F. Chen and H. Lin The evolution of permafrost and the active layer is highly related to climate change because of its feedback effects involving water and carbon storage. In this study, we firstly examined the relationship of regional water balance, geomorphological process and anthropogenic activities by means of Small Baseline Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (SB-InSAR) to monitor the surface movements overlaid on the permafrost of Tibet Plateau (TP), China, using 3.5-yr observation span of L-band ALOS PALSAR data (June, 2007 to December, 2010). The estimated displacements (primarily in the range of −30 mm yr −1 to 30 mm yr −1 ) and time-series implied evolutions of the active layer and permafrost beneath. The motion trend along slopes was complicated, and thus interdisciplinary interpretations were required. Water level variations of inland lakes were then detected, although further investigations were required for validation. Anthropogenic influences on this frail permafrost environment were significant, proved by the remarkable surface settlement along the embankment of Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Consequently, it is crucial and necessary to monitor this arid and cold plateau owing to the combination of climate change, geo-hazards prediction as well as the regional sustainable development.

Description: It takes a community to raise a hydrologist: the Modular Curriculum for Hydrologic Advancement (MOCHA) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3405-3418, 2012 Author(s): T. Wagener, C. Kelleher, M. Weiler, B. McGlynn, M. Gooseff, L. Marshall, T. Meixner, K. McGuire, S. Gregg, P. Sharma, and S. Zappe Protection from hydrological extremes and the sustainable supply of hydrological services in the presence of changing climate and lifestyles as well as rocketing population pressure in many parts of the world are the defining societal challenges for hydrology in the 21st century. A review of the existing literature shows that these challenges and their educational consequences for hydrology were foreseeable and were even predicted by some. However, surveys of the current educational basis for hydrology also clearly demonstrate that hydrology education is not yet ready to prepare students to deal with these challenges. We present our own vision of the necessary evolution of hydrology education, which we implemented in the Modular Curriculum for Hydrologic Advancement (MOCHA). The MOCHA project is directly aimed at developing a community-driven basis for hydrology education. In this paper we combine literature review, community survey, discussion and assessment to provide a holistic baseline for the future of hydrology education. The ultimate objective of our educational initiative is to enable educators to train a new generation of "renaissance hydrologists," who can master the holistic nature of our field and of the problems we encounter.

Description: Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations – a comparison of methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3383-3390, 2012 Author(s): L. Gudmundsson, J. B. Bremnes, J. E. Haugen, and T. Engen-Skaugen The impact of climate change on water resources is usually assessed at the local scale. However, regional climate models (RCMs) are known to exhibit systematic biases in precipitation. Hence, RCM simulations need to be post-processed in order to produce reliable estimates of local scale climate. Popular post-processing approaches are based on statistical transformations, which attempt to adjust the distribution of modelled data such that it closely resembles the observed climatology. However, the diversity of suggested methods renders the selection of optimal techniques difficult and therefore there is a need for clarification. In this paper, statistical transformations for post-processing RCM output are reviewed and classified into (1) distribution derived transformations, (2) parametric transformations and (3) nonparametric transformations, each differing with respect to their underlying assumptions. A real world application, using observations of 82 precipitation stations in Norway, showed that nonparametric transformations have the highest skill in systematically reducing biases in RCM precipitation.

Description: Ice velocity changes in the Ross and Ronne sectors observed using satellite radar data from 1997 and 2009 The Cryosphere, 6, 1019-1030, 2012 Author(s): B. Scheuchl, J. Mouginot, and E. Rignot We report changes in ice velocity of a 6.5 million km 2 region around South Pole encompassing the Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves and a significant portion of the ice streams and glaciers that constitute their catchment areas. Using the first full interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) coverage of the region completed in 2009 and partial coverage acquired in 1997, we processed the data to assemble a comprehensive map of ice speed changes between those two years. On the Ross Ice Shelf, our results confirm a continued deceleration of Mercer and Whillans Ice Streams with a 12-yr velocity difference of −50 m yr −1 (−16.7%) and −100 m yr −1 (−25.3%) at their grounding lines. The deceleration spreads 450 km upstream of the grounding line and more than 500 km onto the shelf, beyond what was previously known. Ross and Filchner Ice Shelves exhibit signs of pre-calving events, representing the largest observed changes, with an increase in speed in excess of +100 m yr −1 in 12 yr. Other changes in the Ross Ice Shelf region are less significant. The observed changes in glacier speed extend on the Ross Ice Shelf along the ice streams' flow lines. Most tributaries of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show a modest deceleration or no change between 1997 and 2009. Slessor Glacier shows a small deceleration over a large sector. No change is detected on the Bailey, Rutford, and Institute Ice Streams. On the Filchner Ice Shelf itself, ice decelerated rather uniformly with a 12-yr difference in speed of −50 m yr −1 , or −5% of its ice front speed, which we attribute to a 12 km advance in its ice front position. Our results show that dynamic changes are present in the region. They highlight the need for continued observation of the area with a primary focus on the Siple Coast. The dynamic changes in Central Antarctica between 1997 and 2009 are generally second-order effects in comparison to losses on glaciers in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region and on the Antarctic Peninsula. We therefore conclude that the dynamic changes shown here do not have a strong impact on the mass budget of the Antarctic continent.

Description: Estimation of evapotranspiration from TOA radiances in the Poyang Lake Basin, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 10963-11003, 2012 Author(s): J. Peng, Y. Liu, X. Zhao, and A. Loew Routine and rapid estimation of ET (evapotranspiration) at regional scale is of great significance for agricultural, hydrological and climatic studies. A simplified single-source energy balance parameterization scheme, known as the LST/NDVI (Land Surface Temperature/Vegetation Index) triangle method, has been applied successfully to estimate regional clear sky ET in many studies. Based on the triangle method, we proposed a new method in this study to estimate daily ET directly using the TOA (Top of Atmosphere) radiances without performing atmospheric correction and other complicated processes. Firstly, the EF (Evaporative Fraction, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to surface available energy) was estimated by interpolation in the LST/NDVI triangular-shaped scatter space, which was constructed using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro radiometer) TOA radiances over a heterogeneous area of the Poyang Lake Basin in China. Then the net radiation over the same study area was derived based entirely on MODIS TOA radiances as well. Finally, daily ET maps were estimated from these EF maps and net radiation maps by using a sinusoidal temporal interpolation model. The estimated EF, net radiation and ET have been validated against field observations collected for the period October 2007–July 2008. The results indicate comparable accuracy to results of other current widely used satellite-based methods. In addition, intercomparisons between the proposed method-based estimates and MODIS products-based estimates were also carried out over the validation site. The results suggest that the proposed method performed slightly better than the MODIS products-based triangle method. Overall, the proposed algorithm requires fewer assumptions and can avoid uncertainties associated with the satellite derived products, while its accuracy is slightly higher. It should facilitate direct use of satellite data for determining ET and relevant applications as well. Nonetheless, more validation work needs to be carried out with more integration of satellite data and ground-based measurements over various climatic regions and under different surface conditions in the future.

Description: Data expansion: the potential of grey literature for understanding floods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11049-11092, 2012 Author(s): S. Uhlemann, R. Bertelmann, and B. Merz Sophisticated methods have been developed and become standard in analysing floods as well as for assessing the flood risk. However, increasingly critique of the current standards and scientific practice can be found both in the flood hydrology community as well as in the risk community who argue that the considerable amount of information already available on natural disasters has not been adequately deployed and brought to effective use. We describe this phenomenon as a failure to synthesize knowledge that results from barriers and ignorance in awareness, use and management of the entire spectrum of relevant content, that is, data, information and knowledge. In this paper we argue that the scientific community in flood risk research ignores event specific analysis and documentations as another source of data. We present results from a systematic search that includes an intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood relevant publications. We obtain 183 documents that contain information on the sources, pathways, receptors and/or consequences for any of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952–2002. This study therefore provides the most comprehensive meta-data collection of flood documentations for the considered geographical space and period. 87.5% of all events have been documented and especially the most severe floods have received extensive coverage. Only 30% of the material has been produced in the scientific/academic environment and the majority of all documents (about 80%) can be considered grey literature. Therefore, ignoring grey sources in flood research also means ignoring the largest part of knowledge available on single flood events (in Germany). Further, the results of this study underpin the rapid changes in information dissemination of flood event literature over the last decade. We discuss the options and obstacles of incorporating this data in the knowledge building process in the light of the current technological developments and international, interdisciplinary debates for data curation.

Description: Mechanical effect of mélange-induced buttressing on embayment-terminating glacier dynamics The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 4123-4136, 2012 Author(s): D. Seneca Lindsey and T. K. Dupont Embayment terminating glaciers interact dynamically with seasonal sea ice and icebergs, a mixture we refer to as mélange. For certain glaciers, mélange prevents calved bergs from rotating away from the front, thus allowing the ice front to advance into the embayment. Here we demonstrate that mélange can, if rigid enough, provide sufficient buttressing to reduce the calving rate, while leaving the ice-front velocity largely unaffected. The net result is additional ice-front advance. Observations indicate a seasonal advance/retreat cycle has occurred at Jakobshavn Isbræ since the 1950s. We model an idealized Jakobshavn Isbræ-like scenario and find that mélange may be responsible for a seasonal ice-front advance of up to 0.6 km. These results come from a model that incorporates mélange into the interior of the domain, includes relevant stresses, and models drag via a kinematic boundary condition. A weakening or loss of mélange due to increasing temperatures would lead to further mass loss from glaciers such as Jakobshavn Isbræ.

Description: Carl M. Bender and Sarben Sarkar This paper presents an asymptotic analysis of the Boltzmann equations (Riccati differential equations) that describe the physics of thermal dark-matter-relic abundances. Two different asymptotic techniques are used, boundary-layer theory, which makes use of asymptotic matching, and the delta expansi ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 103509 (2012)] published Thu Sep 27, 2012.

Description: K. Hepp This review provides many entry points to controversies in neuroscience, where input from mathematical physics could be fruitful, especially about coherence and decoherence in the brain, both on the level of classical and quantum mechanics. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 095222 (2012)] published Thu Sep 27, 2012.

Description: J. Kiukas, P. Lahti, J. Schultz, and R. F. Werner In the nonrelativistic setting with finitely many canonical degrees of freedom, a shift-covariant phase space observable is uniquely characterized by a positive operator of trace one and, in turn, by the Fourier-Weyl transform of this operator. We study three properties of such observables, and char ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 102103 (2012)] published Thu Sep 27, 2012.

Description: Michael K.-H. Kiessling The non-relativistic bosonic ground state is studied for quantum N-body systems with Coulomb interactions, modeling atoms or ions made of N bosonic point electrons bound to an atomic point nucleus of Z absolute electron charges, treated in BornOppenheimer approximation (the nuclear mass M = [infinit ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 095223 (2012)] published Thu Sep 27, 2012.

Description: Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing The Cryosphere, 6, 1063-1076, 2012 Author(s): E. J. Burke, I. P. Hartley, and C. D. Jones Under climate change thawing permafrost will cause old carbon which is currently frozen and inert to become vulnerable to decomposition and release into the climate system. This paper develops a simple framework for estimating the impact of this permafrost carbon release on the global mean temperature (P-GMT). The analysis is based on simulations made with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM2-ES) for a range of representative CO 2 concentration pathways. Results using the high concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) suggest that by 2100 the annual methane (CH 4 ) emission rate is 2–59 Tg CH 4 yr −1 and 50–270 Pg C has been released as CO 2 with an associated P-GMT of 0.08–0.36 °C (all 5th–95th percentile ranges). P-GMT is considerably lower – between 0.02 and 0.11 °C – for the low concentration pathway (RCP2.6). The uncertainty in climate model scenario causes about 50% of the spread in P-GMT by the end of the 21st century. The distribution of soil carbon, in particular how it varies with depth, contributes to about half of the remaining spread, with quality of soil carbon and decomposition processes contributing a further quarter each. These latter uncertainties could be reduced through additional observations. Over the next 20–30 yr, whilst scenario uncertainty is small, improving our knowledge of the quality of soil carbon will contribute significantly to reducing the spread in the, albeit relatively small, P-GMT.

Description: A Bayesian joint probability post-processor for reducing errors and quantifying uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11199-11225, 2012 Author(s): P. Pokhrel, D. E. Robertson, and Q. J. Wang Hydrological post-processors refer here to statistical models that are applied to hydrological model predictions to further reduce prediction errors and to quantify remaining uncertainty. For streamflow predictions, post-processors are generally applied to daily or sub-daily time scales. For many applications such as seasonal streamflow forecasting and water resources assessment, monthly volumes of streamflows are of primary interest. While it is possible to aggregate post-processed daily or sub-daily predictions to monthly time scales, the monthly volumes so produced may not have the least errors achievable and may not be reliable in uncertainty distributions. Post-processing directly at the monthly time scale is likely to be more effective. In this study, we investigate the use of a Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to directly post-process model predictions of monthly streamflow volumes. We apply the BJP post-processor to 18 catchments located in eastern Australia and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing prediction errors and quantifying prediction uncertainty.

Description: Gains from modelling dependence of rainfall variables into a stochastic model: application of the copula approach at several sites Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11227-11266, 2012 Author(s): P. Cantet and P. Arnaud Since the last decade, copulas have become more and more widespread in the construction of hydrological models. Unlike the multivariate statistics which are traditionally used, this tool enables scientists to model different dependence structures without drawbacks. The authors propose to apply copulas to improve the performance of an existing model. The hourly rainfall stochastic model SHYPRE is based on the simulation of descriptive variables. It generates long series of hourly rainfall and enables the estimation of distribution quantiles for different climates. The paper focuses on the relationship between two variables describing the rainfall signal. First, Kendall's tau is estimated on each of the 217 rain gauge stations in France, then the False Discovery Rate procedure is used to define stations for which the dependence is significant. Among three usual archimedean copulas, a unique 2-copula is chosen to model this dependence for any station. Modelling dependence leads to an obvious improvement in the reproduction of the standard and extreme statistics of maximum rainfall, especially for the sub-daily rainfall. An accuracy test for the extreme values shows the good asymptotic behaviour of the new rainfall generator version and the impacts of the copula choice on extreme quantile estimation.

Description: Crossing the digital divide: an interoperable solution for sharing time series and coverages in Earth sciences Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3013-3029, 2012 Author(s): F. R. Salas, E. Boldrini, D. R. Maidment, S. Nativi, and B. Domenico In a world driven by the Internet and the readily accessible information it provides, there exists a high demand to easily discover and collect vast amounts of data available over several scientific domains and numerous data types. To add to the complexity, data is not only available through a plethora of data sources within disparate systems but also represents differing scales of space and time. One clear divide that exists in the world of information science and technology is the disjoint relationship between hydrologic and atmospheric science information. These worlds have long been split between observed time series at discrete geographical features in hydrologic science and modeled or remotely sensed coverages or grids over continuous space and time domains in atmospheric science. As more information becomes widely available through the Web, data are being served and published as Web services using standardized implementations and encodings. This paper illustrates a framework that utilizes Sensor Observation Services, Web Feature Services, Web Coverage Services, Catalog Services for the Web and GI-cat Services to index and discover data offered through different classes of information. This services infrastructure supports multiple servers of time series and gridded information, which can be searched through multiple portals, using a common set of time, space and concept query filters.

Description: Simulating dam-breach flood scenarios of the Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3031-3044, 2012 Author(s): X. Fan, C. X. Tang, C. J. van Westen, and D. Alkema Floods from failures of landslide dams can pose a hazard to people and property downstream, which have to be rapidly assessed and mitigated in order to reduce the potential risk. The Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the M w = 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake had impounded the largest lake in the earthquake affected area with an estimated volume of 3 × 10 8 m 3 , and the potential catastrophic dam breach posed a serious threat to more than 2.5 million people in downstream towns and Mianyang city, located 85 km downstream. Chinese authorities had to evacuate parts of the city until the Tangjiashan landslide dam was artificially breached by a spillway, and the lake was drained. We propose an integrated approach to simulate the dam-breach floods for a number of possible scenarios, to evaluate the severity of the threat to Mianyang city. Firstly, the physically-based BREACH model was applied to predict the flood hydrographs at the dam location, which were calibrated with observational data of the flood resulting from the artificial breaching. The output hydrographs from this model were inputted into the 1-D–2-D SOBEK hydrodynamic model to simulate the spatial variations in flood parameters. The simulated flood hydrograph, peak discharge and peak arrival time at the downstream towns fit the observations. Thus this approach is capable of providing reliable predictions for the decision makers to determine the mitigation plans. The sensitivity analysis of the BREACH model input parameters reveals that the average grain size, the unit weight and porosity of the dam materials are the most sensitive parameters. The variability of the dam material properties causes a large uncertainty in the estimation of the peak flood discharge and peak arrival time, but has little influence on the flood inundation area and flood depth downstream. The effect of cascading breaches of smaller dams downstream of the Tangjiashan dam was insignificant, due to their rather small volumes, which were only 2% of the volume of the Tangjiashan lake. The construction of the spillway was proven to have played a crucial role in reducing the dam-breach flood, because all the other natural breach scenarios would have caused the flooding of the downstream towns and parts of Mianyang city. However, in retrospect improvements on the spillway design and the evacuation planning would have been possible. The dam-break flood risk will be better controlled by reducing the spillway channel gradient and the porosity of the coating of the channel bottom. The experience and lessons we learned from the Tangjiashan case will contribute to improving the hazard mitigation and risk management planning of similar events in future.

Description: N. Bebiano, J. da Providencia, and J. P. da Providencia Extensions of trace inequalities arising in statistical mechanics are derived in a straightforward and unified way from a variational characterization of the Tsallis entropy. Namely, one-parameter extension of the thermodynamic inequality is presented and its equivalence to a generalized PeierlsBogo ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 103303 (2012)] published Thu Oct 4, 2012.

Description: Jiansheng Geng and Jian Wu In this paper, we show that one dimension derivative nonlinear Schrodinger equation admits a whitney smooth family of small amplitude, real analytic quasi-periodic solutions with two Diophantine frequencies. The proof is based on a partial Birkhoff normal form reduction and an abstract infinite dime ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 102702 (2012)] published Thu Oct 4, 2012.

Description: Badis Ydri and Adel Bouchareb In this article we study non-commutative vector sigma model with the most general phi interaction on Moyal-Weyl spaces. We compute the 2- and 4-point functions to all orders in the large N limit and then apply the approximate Wilson renormalization group recursion formula to study the renormalized c ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 102301 (2012)] published Thu Oct 4, 2012.

Description: Suemi Rodriguez-Romo We deal with some matters needed to construct concrete left Hopf algebras for inhomogeneous quantum groups produced as noncommutative symmetries of fermionic and bosonic creation/annihilation operators. We find a map for the bidimensional fermionic case, produced as in Manin's [Quantum Groups and No ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 102104 (2012)] published Thu Oct 4, 2012.

Description: Heterogeneity in Glacier response from 1973 to 2011 in the Shyok valley, Karakoram, India The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3049-3078, 2012 Author(s): R. Bhambri, T. Bolch, P. Kawishwar, D. P. Dobhal, D. Srivastava, and B. Pratap A glacier inventory for the Shyok and Chang Chenmo basins was generated for the year 2002 using semi-automated methods based on Landsat ETM+ and SRTM3 DEM data. Glacier change analysis was carried out for 134 glaciers based on Hexagon KH-9 (years 1973, 1974) and Landsat TM/ETM+ (1989, 2002 and 2011) images. The 2002 inventory contains 2123 glaciers with an area of 2977.9±92.2 km 2 in the entire study area including Shyok (1605 glaciers; area 2499±77.4 km 2 ) and Chang Chenmo basins (518 glaciers; area 478.7±14.8 km 2 ). Out of 2123 glaciers, only eight glaciers have higher elevation ranges than 2000 m. On average, the glacier area in Chang Chenmo basin exhibited no changes during the study period. However, individual absolute glacier area changes varied from −0.7±0.03 km 2 to +0.2±0.01 km 2 between 1973 and 2011. 10 glaciers exhibited an area increase of 1.7±0.07 km 2 in total while 36 glaciers lost about total 1.8±0.07 km 2 . The glacier area decreased by 11±0.47 km 2 from 1973 to 1989 in the Shyok basin whereas an increase in area of 8.2±0.33 km 2 was observed during 1989–2002. The area has further increased by 5.6±0.21 km 2 from 2002 to 2011 in the respective basin. This individual glacier response heterogeneity can be attributed to surging and possibly due to decreased temperature in last decades. However, further detailed studies are needed to understand glacier surge mechanism and the possible mass gain.

Description: The impact of heterogeneous surface temperatures on the 2-m air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in spring The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 3011-3048, 2012 Author(s): A. Tetzlaff, L. Kaleschke, C. Lüpkes, F. Ament, and T. Vihma The influence of spatial surface temperature changes over the Arctic Ocean on the 2-m air temperature variability is estimated using backward trajectories based on ERA-Interim and the JRA25 wind fields. They are initiated at Alert, Barrow and at the Tara drifting station. Three different methods are used. The first one compares mean ice surface temperatures along the trajectories to the observed 2-m air temperatures at the stations. The second one correlates the observed temperatures to air temperatures obtained using a simple Lagrangian box model which only includes the effect of sensible heat fluxes. For the third method, mean sensible heat fluxes from the model are correlated with the difference of the air temperatures at the model starting point and the observed temperatures at the stations. The calculations are based on MODIS ice surface temperatures and four different sets of ice concentration derived from SSM/I and AMSR-E data. Under nearly cloud free conditions, up to 90% of the 2-m air temperature variance can be explained for Alert, and 60% for Barrow using these methods. The differences are attributed to the different ice conditions, which are characterized by high ice concentration around Alert and lower ice concentration near Barrow. These results are robust for the different sets of reanalyses and ice concentration data. Near-surface winds of both reanalyses show a large inconsistency in the Central Arctic, which leads to a large difference in the correlations between modeled and observed 2-m air temperatures at Tara. Explained variances amount to 70% using JRA and only 45% using ERA. The results also suggest that near-surface temperatures at a given site are influenced by the variability of surface temperatures in a domain of about 150 to 350 km radius around the site.

Description: Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 9065-9093, 2012 Author(s): K. Rasouli, M. A. Hernández-Henríquez, and S. J. Déry The 271 000 km 2 Lake Athabasca drainage in Northern Canada encompasses ecologically-rich and sensitive ecosystems, intensive agricultural lands, vast forests, glacier-clad mountains, and abundant oil reserves in the form of tar-sands. In this study, streamflow variability and trends in eight rivers feeding the 7800 km 2 Lake Athabasca are investigated over the period 1960–2010. Hydrological regimes and trends are established using a robust regime shift detection method and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, respectively. Results show that the Athabasca River, which provides ~ 57% of the total annual lake inflow of 34.06 km 3 yr −1 , experiences marked declines in recent decades impacting lake levels and its ecosystem. The Fond du Lac River, which contributes ~ 30% of total Lake Athabasca inflow, has an increasing trend of 0.021 km 3 yr −1 over 1970–2010 according to the MK test, equating to a 0.86 km 3 discharge increase from Fond du Lac River to the lake. From 1960 to 2010 there has been approximately a 21.2% reduction of average discharge equivalent to a 7.22 km 3 recession in the Lake Athabasca causing lake levels to drop. The lake level has a trend of −0.008 m yr −1 which is equivalent to a 0.39 m decline in the lake level over 1960–2010. The total lake inflow trend over 1977–2010 is −0.207 km 3 yr −1 or a reduction of 25.67 km 3 by 2100 by linear extrapolation. This may imply a further reduction of 2 m to 3 m in lake level that is in the range of a 5200-yr historical minimum inferred from proxy data in nearby sediment cores.

Description: Ya-lun Tsai In this article, we count the number of (N 1)-dimensional central configurations of the restricted (N + 1)-body problem with equal masses. For N = 4, 5, there are 25, 56 central configurations. For N = 3 or N 〉= 6, the number of central configurations is 2 + N 1. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 072902 (2012)] published Thu Jul 12, 2012.

Description: Jonas R. F. Lima, M. Vieira, C. Furtado, F. Moraes, and Cleverson Filgueiras The quantum dynamics of particles with mass dependent on the position is a problem of interest since the effective-mass approach to charge carriers in conductors and semiconductors began to be used. These problems have been solved using the Hamiltonian H=(1/2)m(x)pm(x)pm(x), where alpha and beta are ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 072101 (2012)] published Thu Jul 12, 2012.

Description: Valentin Bonzom and Etera R. Livine We describe fundamental equations which define the topological ground states in the lattice realization of the SU(2) BF phase. We introduce a new scalar Hamiltonian, based on recent works in quantum gravity and topological models, which is different from the plaquette operator. Its gauge-theoretical ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 072201 (2012)] published Thu Jul 12, 2012.

Description: Xu Sun and Jinqiao Duan The Fokker-Planck equations describe time evolution of probability densities of stochastic dynamical systems and are thus widely used to quantify random phenomena such as uncertainty propagation. For dynamical systems driven by non-Gaussian Levy processes, however, it is difficult to obtain explicit ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 072701 (2012)] published Thu Jul 12, 2012.

Description: Joakim Arnlind and Harald Grosse We recall a construction of non-commutative algebras related to a one-parameter family of (deformed) spheres and tori, and show that in the case of tori, the *-algebras can be completed into C*-algebras isomorphic to the standard non-commutative torus. As the former was constructed in the context of ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 073505 (2012)] published Thu Jul 12, 2012.

Description: T. Balehowsky and E. Woolgar We consider the evolution of the asymptotically hyperbolic mass under the curvature-normalized Ricci flow of asymptotically hyperbolic, conformally compactifiable manifolds. In contrast to asymptotically flat manifolds, for which Arnowitt-Deser-Misner (ADM) mass is constant during Ricci flow, we sho ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 072501 (2012)] published Thu Jul 12, 2012.

Description: Refreezing on the Greenland ice sheet: a comparison of parameterizations The Cryosphere, 6, 743-762, 2012 Author(s): C. H. Reijmer, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis, J. Ettema, and L. B. Stap Retention and refreezing of meltwater are acknowledged to be important processes for the mass budget of polar glaciers and ice sheets. Several parameterizations of these processes exist for use in energy and mass balance models. Due to a lack of direct observations, validation of these parameterizations is difficult. In this study we compare a set of 6 refreezing parameterizations against output of two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) coupled to an energy balance snow model, the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), applied to the Greenland ice sheet. In both RCMs, refreezing is explicitly calculated in a snow model that calculates vertical profiles of temperature, density and liquid water content. Between RACMO2 and MAR, the ice sheet-integrated amount of refreezing differs by only 4.9 mm w.e yr −1 (4.5 %), and the temporal and spatial variability are very similar. For consistency, the parameterizations are forced with output (surface temperature, precipitation and melt) of the RCMs. For the ice sheet-integrated amount of refreezing and its inter-annual variations, all parameterizations give similar results, especially after some tuning. However, the spatial distributions differ significantly and the spatial correspondence between the RCMs is better than with any of the parameterizations. Results are especially sensitive to the choice of the depth of the thermally active layer, which determines the cold content of the snow in most parameterizations. These results are independent of which RCM is used to force the parameterizations.

Description: F. Calogero and F. Leyvraz A new dynamical system interpretable as a discrete-time many-body problem is identified, and it is shown how its initial-value problem can be solved by purely algebraic operations. ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 082702 (2012)] published Mon Aug 20, 2012.

Description: Assessing water footprint at river basin level: a case study for the Heihe River Basin in northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 2771-2781, 2012 Author(s): Z. Zeng, J. Liu, P. H. Koeneman, E. Zarate, and A. Y. Hoekstra Increasing water scarcity places considerable importance on the quantification of water footprint (WF) at different levels. Despite progress made previously, there are still very few WF studies focusing on specific river basins, especially for those in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to quantify WF within the Heihe River Basin (HRB), a basin located in the arid and semi-arid northwest of China. The findings show that the WF was 1768 million m 3 yr −1 in the HRB over 2004–2006. Agricultural production was the largest water consumer, accounting for 96% of the WF (92% for crop production and 4% for livestock production). The remaining 4% was for the industrial and domestic sectors. The "blue" (surface- and groundwater) component of WF was 811 million m 3 yr −1 . This indicates a blue water proportion of 46%, which is much higher than the world average and China's average, which is mainly due to the aridness of the HRB and a high dependence on irrigation for crop production. However, even in such a river basin, blue WF was still smaller than "green" (soil water) WF, indicating the importance of green water. We find that blue WF exceeded blue water availability during eight months per year and also on an annual basis. This indicates that WF of human activities was achieved at a cost of violating environmental flows of natural freshwater ecosystems, and such a WF pattern is not sustainable. Considering the large WF of crop production, optimizing the crop planting pattern is often a key to achieving more sustainable water use in arid and semi-arid regions.

Description: Robust multi-objective calibration strategies – possibilities for improving flood forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3579-3606, 2012 Author(s): T. Krauße, J. Cullmann, P. Saile, and G. H. Schmitz Process-oriented rainfall-runoff models are designed to approximate the complex hydrologic processes within a specific catchment and in particular to simulate the discharge at the catchment outlet. Most of these models exhibit a high degree of complexity and require the determination of various parameters by calibration. Recently, automatic calibration methods became popular in order to identify parameter vectors with high corresponding model performance. The model performance is often assessed by a purpose-oriented objective function. Practical experience suggests that in many situations one single objective function cannot adequately describe the model's ability to represent any aspect of the catchment's behaviour. This is regardless of whether the objective is aggregated of several criteria that measure different (possibly opposite) aspects of the system behaviour. One strategy to circumvent this problem is to define multiple objective functions and to apply a multi-objective optimisation algorithm to identify the set of Pareto optimal or non-dominated solutions. Nonetheless, there is a major disadvantage of automatic calibration procedures that understand the problem of model calibration just as the solution of an optimisation problem: due to the complex-shaped response surface, the estimated solution of the optimisation problem can result in different near-optimum parameter vectors that can lead to a very different performance on the validation data. Bárdossy and Singh (2008) studied this problem for single-objective calibration problems using the example of hydrological models and proposed a geometrical sampling approach called Robust Parameter Estimation (ROPE). This approach applies the concept of data depth in order to overcome the shortcomings of automatic calibration procedures and find a set of robust parameter vectors. Recent studies confirmed the effectivity of this method. However, all ROPE approaches published so far just identify robust model parameter vectors with respect to one single objective. The consideration of multiple objectives is just possible by aggregation. In this paper, we present an approach that combines the principles of multi-objective optimisation and depth-based sampling, entitled Multi-Objective Robust Parameter Estimation (MOROPE). It applies a multi-objective optimisation algorithm in order to identify non-dominated robust model parameter vectors. Subsequently, it samples parameter vectors with high data depth using a further developed sampling algorithm presented in Krauße and Cullmann (2012a). We study the effectivity of the proposed method using synthetical test functions and for the calibration of a distributed hydrologic model with focus on flood events in a small, pre-alpine, and fast responding catchment in Switzerland.

Description: Assessing the potential hydrological impact of the Gibe III Dam on Lake Turkana water level using multi-source satellite data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3561-3578, 2012 Author(s): N. M. Velpuri and G. B. Senay Lake Turkana, the largest desert lake in the world, is fed by ungauged or poorly gauged river systems. To meet the demand of electricity in the East African region, Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies more than 80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa with a height of 241 m. However, the nature of interactions and potential impacts of regulated inflows to Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ datasets. In this study, we used 12 yr (1998–2009) of existing multi-source satellite and model-assimilated global weather data. We used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model evaluates the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different approaches – a historical approach, a rainfall based approach, and a statistical approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. All the approaches provided comparable and consistent results. Model results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam on Lake Turkana would vary with the magnitude and distribution of rainfall post-dam commencement. On average, the reservoir would take up to 8–10 months, after commencement, to reach a minimum operation level of 201 m depth of water. During the dam filling period, the lake level would drop up to 1–2 m (95% confidence) compared to the lake level modeled without the dam. The lake level variability caused by regulated inflows after the dam commissioning were found to be within the natural variability of the lake of 4.8 m. Moreover, modeling results indicated that the hydrological impact of the Gibe III dam would depend on the initial lake level at the time of dam commencement. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to fluctuations in lake levels due to the Gibe III dam were also identified. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of using existing multi-source satellite data in a basic modeling framework to assess the potential hydrological impact of an upstream dam on a terminal downstream lake. The results obtained from this study could also be used to evaluate alternative dam-filling scenarios and assess the potential impact of the dam on Lake Turkana under different operational strategies.

Description: Vapor flux and recrystallization during dry snow metamorphism under a steady temperature gradient as observed by time-lapse micro-tomography The Cryosphere, 6, 1141-1155, 2012 Author(s): B. R. Pinzer, M. Schneebeli, and T. U. Kaempfer Dry snow metamorphism under an external temperature gradient is the most common type of recrystallization of snow on the ground. The changes in snow microstructure modify the physical properties of snow, and therefore an understanding of this process is essential for many disciplines, from modeling the effects of snow on climate to assessing avalanche risk. We directly imaged the microstructural changes in snow during temperature gradient metamorphism (TGM) under a constant gradient of 50 K m −1 , using in situ time-lapse X-ray micro-tomography. This novel and non-destructive technique directly reveals the amount of ice that sublimates and is deposited during metamorphism, in addition to the exact locations of these phase changes. We calculated the average time that an ice volume stayed in place before it sublimated and found a characteristic residence time of 2–3 days. This means that most of the ice changes its phase from solid to vapor and back many times in a seasonal snowpack where similar temperature conditions can be found. Consistent with such a short timescale, we observed a mass turnover of up to 60% of the total ice mass per day. The concept of hand-to-hand transport for the water vapor flux describes the observed changes very well. However, we did not find evidence for a macroscopic vapor diffusion enhancement. The picture of {temperature gradient metamorphism} produced by directly observing the changing microstructure sheds light on the micro-physical processes and could help to improve models that predict the physical properties of snow.

Description: Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on freshwater lenses on the North Sea Island of Borkum using hydrological and geophysical methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3621-3643, 2012 Author(s): H. Sulzbacher, H. Wiederhold, B. Siemon, M. Grinat, J. Igel, T. Burschil, T. Günther, and K. Hinsby A numerical, density dependent groundwater model is set up for the North Sea Island of Borkum to estimate climate change impacts on coastal aquifers and especially the situation of barrier islands in the Wadden Sea. The database includes information from boreholes, a seismic survey, a helicopter-borne electromagnetic (HEM) survey, monitoring of the freshwater-saltwater boundary by vertical electrode chains in two boreholes, measurements of groundwater table, pumping and slug tests, as well as water samples. Based on a statistical analysis of borehole columns, seismic sections and HEM, a hydrogeological model is set up. The groundwater model is developed using the finite-element programme FEFLOW. The density dependent groundwater model is calibrated on the basis of hydraulic, hydrological and geophysical data, in particular spatial HEM and local monitoring data. Verification runs with the calibrated model show good agreement between measured and computed hydraulic heads. A good agreement is also obtained between measured and computed density or total dissolved solids data for both the entire freshwater lens on a large scale and in the area of the well fields on a small scale. For simulating future changes in this coastal groundwater system until the end of the current century, we use the climate scenario A2, specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and, in particular, the data for the German North Sea coast. Simulation runs show proceeding salinisation with time beneath the well fields of the two waterworks Waterdelle and Ostland. The modelling study shows that the spreading of well fields is an appropriate protection measure against excessive salinisation of the water supply until the end of the current century.

Description: Balancing energy and environmental concerns: the case of the Kayraktepe dam, Turkey Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9, 11769-11789, 2012 Author(s): Ö. Sever, Ş. Tiğrek, and N. Şarlak In this study, an alternative solution for a large dam, namely the Kayraktepe Dam in Turkey, is investigated. The dam was planned for flood control, energy generation and flow regulation for a downstream irrigation project more than 30 yr ago, but until now the project has not begun due to it receiving severe criticism about environmental and social considerations. The project formulation was redeveloped several times in the past but the options were not found to be feasible. In this study, a detailed analysis of the available feasibility studies is provided and then a new formulation, consisting of the proposed one medium dam and five run-of-river type hydropower stations instead of a large scale dam, is evaluated. The new formulation is equivalent to the existing project in terms of energy production and flood control. On the other hand, there are some benefits relative to other configurations as solutions to some of the environmental and social problems being addressed.

Description: Global runoff anomalies over 1993–2009 estimated from coupled Land–Ocean–Atmosphere water budgets and its relation with climate variability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3647-3658, 2012 Author(s): S. Munier, H. Palanisamy, P. Maisongrande, A. Cazenave, and E. F. Wood Whether the global runoff (or freshwater discharge from land to the ocean) is currently increasing and the global water cycle is intensifying is still a controversial issue. Here we compute land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere water budgets and derive two independent estimates of the global runoff over the period 1993–2009. Water storage variations in the land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs are estimated from different types of data sets: atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, satellite altimetry and in situ ocean temperature data (the difference between altimetry based global mean sea level and ocean thermal expansion providing an estimate of the ocean mass component). These data sets are first validated using independent data, and then the global runoff is computed from the two methods. Results for the global runoff show a very good correlation between both estimates. More importantly, no significant trend is observed over the whole period. Besides, the global runoff appears to be clearly impacted by large-scale climate phenomena such as major ENSO events. To infer this, we compute the zonal runoff over four latitudinal bands and set up for each band a new index (combined runoff index) obtained by optimization of linear combinations of various climate indices. Results show that, in particular, the intertropical and northern mid-latitude runoffs are mainly driven by ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) with opposite behavior. Indeed, the zonal runoff in the intertropical zone decreases during major El Niño events, whereas it increases in the northern mid-latitudes, suggesting that water masses over land are shifted northward/southward during El Niño/La Niña. In addition to this study, we propose an innovative method to estimate the global ocean thermal expansion. The method is based on the assumption that the difference between both runoff estimates is mainly due to the thermal expansion term not accounted for in the estimation of the ocean mass. We find that our reconstructed thermal expansion time series compares well with two existing data sets in terms of year-to-year fluctuations but somewhat differs on longer (multi-year) time scales. Possible explanations include non negligible steric variations from the deep ocean.

Description: A bare ground evaporation revision in the ECMWF land-surface scheme: evaluation of its impact using ground soil moisture and satellite microwave data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3607-3620, 2012 Author(s): C. Albergel, G. Balsamo, P. de Rosnay, J. Muñoz-Sabater, and S. Boussetta In situ soil moisture data from 122 stations across the United States are used to evaluate the impact of a new bare ground evaporation formulation at ECMWF. In November 2010, the bare ground evaporation used in ECMWF's operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) was enhanced by adopting a lower stress threshold than for the vegetation, allowing a higher evaporation. It results in more realistic soil moisture values when compared to in situ data, particularly over dry areas. Use was made of the operational IFS and offline experiments for the evaluation. The latter are based on a fixed version of the IFS and make it possible to assess the impact of a single modification, while the operational analysis is based on a continuous effort to improve the analysis and modelling systems, resulting in frequent updates (a few times a year). Considering the field sites with a fraction of bare ground greater than 0.2, the root mean square difference (RMSD) of soil moisture is shown to decrease from 0.118 m 3 m −3 to 0.087 m 3 m −3 when using the new formulation in offline experiments, and from 0.110 m 3 m −3 to 0.088 m 3 m −3 in operations. It also improves correlations. Additionally, the impact of the new formulation on the terrestrial microwave emission at a global scale is investigated. Realistic and dynamically consistent fields of brightness temperature as a function of the land surface conditions are required for the assimilation of the SMOS data. Brightness temperature simulated from surface fields from two offline experiments with the Community Microwave Emission Modelling (CMEM) platform present monthly mean differences up to 7 K. Offline experiments with the new formulation present drier soil moisture, hence simulated brightness temperature with its surface fields are larger. They are also closer to SMOS remotely sensed brightness temperature.

Description: Transient analysis of fluctuations of electrical conductivity as tracer in the stream bed Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3689-3697, 2012 Author(s): C. Schmidt, A. Musolff, N. Trauth, M. Vieweg, and J. H. Fleckenstein Spatial patterns of water flux in the stream bed are controlled by the distribution of hydraulic conductivity, bedform-induced head gradients and the connectivity to the adjoining groundwater system. The water fluxes vary over time driven by short-term flood events or seasonal variations in stream flow and groundwater level. Variations of electrical conductivity (EC) are used as a natural tracer to detect transient travel times and flow velocities in an in-stream gravel bar. We present a method to estimate travel times between the stream and measuring locations in the gravel bar by non-linearly matching the EC signals in the time domain. The amount of temporal distortion required to obtain the optimal matching is related to the travel time of the signal. Our analysis revealed that the travel times increase at higher stream flows because lateral head gradients across the gravel bar become significantly smaller at the time.

Description: Hillslope characteristics as controls of subsurface flow variability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3699-3715, 2012 Author(s): S. Bachmair and M. Weiler Hillslope hydrological dynamics, particularly subsurface flow (SSF), are highly variable and complex. A profound understanding of factors controlling this variability is needed. Therefore we investigated the relationship between variability of shallow water table dynamics and various hillslope characteristics. We ask whether measurable hillslope properties explain patterns of subsurface flow variability. To approach this question, shallow water table dynamics of three adjacent large-scale hillslopes were monitored with high spatial and temporal resolution over 18 months. The hillslopes are similar in terms of topography and parent material, but different in vegetation cover (grassland, coniferous forest, and mixed forest). We expect vegetation to be an important driver of water table dynamics at our study site, especially given the minor differences in topography. Various hillslope properties were determined in the field and via GIS analysis: common topography descriptors, well depth, soil properties via slug tests, and several vegetation parameters. Response variables characterizing the water table response per well were calculated for different temporal scales (entire time series, seasonal scale, event scale). Partial correlation analysis and a Random Forest machine learning approach were carried out to assess the explainability of SSF variability by measurable hillslope characteristics. We found a complex interplay of predictors, yet soil properties and topography showed the highest single explanatory power. Surprisingly, vegetation characteristics played a minor role. Solely throughfall and canopy cover exerted a slightly stronger control, especially in summer. Most importantly, the examined hillslope characteristics explained only a small proportion of the observed SSF variability. Consequently there must be additional important drivers not represented by current measurement techniques of the hillslope configuration (e.g. bedrock properties, preferential pathways). We also found interesting differences in explainability of SSF variability among temporal scales and between both forested hillslopes and the grassland hillslope.

Description: Rafael de la Madrid We use the resonances of the spherical shell potential to present a thorough description of the Gamow (quasinormal) states within the rigged Hilbert space. It will be concluded that the natural setting for the Gamow states is a rigged Hilbert space whose test functions fall off at infinity faster th ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 102113 (2012)] published Fri Oct 19, 2012.

Description: Transition in the fractal geometry of Arctic melt ponds The Cryosphere, 6, 1157-1162, 2012 Author(s): C. Hohenegger, B. Alali, K. R. Steffen, D. K. Perovich, and K. M. Golden During the Arctic melt season, the sea ice surface undergoes a remarkable transformation from vast expanses of snow covered ice to complex mosaics of ice and melt ponds. Sea ice albedo, a key parameter in climate modeling, is determined by the complex evolution of melt pond configurations. In fact, ice–albedo feedback has played a major role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However, understanding melt pond evolution remains a significant challenge to improving climate projections. By analyzing area–perimeter data from hundreds of thousands of melt ponds, we find here an unexpected separation of scales, where pond fractal dimension D transitions from 1 to 2 around a critical length scale of 100 m 2 in area. Pond complexity increases rapidly through the transition as smaller ponds coalesce to form large connected regions, and reaches a maximum for ponds larger than 1000 m 2 , whose boundaries resemble space-filling curves, with D ≈ 2. These universal features of Arctic melt pond evolution are similar to phase transitions in statistical physics. The results impact sea ice albedo, the transmitted radiation fields under melting sea ice, the heat balance of sea ice and the upper ocean, and biological productivity such as under ice phytoplankton blooms.

Description: Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3739-3747, 2012 Author(s): A. Montanari Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long-term fluctuations. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and persistence properties, to gain a better understanding of natural patterns, and in particular long-term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

Description: Guillaume Aubrun and Ion Nechita We study how the realignment criterion (also called computable cross-norm criterion) succeeds asymptotically in detecting whether random states are separable or entangled. We consider random states on C[direct-product]C obtained by partial tracing a Haar-distributed random pure state on C[direct-pro ... [J. Math. Phys. 53, 102210 (2012)] published Mon Oct 22, 2012.