ALBERT

Beschreibung: Abstract Aim Understanding how spatial scale of study affects observed dispersal patterns can provide insights to spatiotemporal population dynamics, particularly in systems with significant long‐distance dispersal (LDD). We aimed to investigate the dispersal gradients of two rusts of wheat with spores of similar size, mass and shape, over multiple spatial scales. We hypothesized that a single dispersal kernel could fit the dispersal from all spatial scales well, and that it would be possible to obtain similar results in spatiotemporal increase of disease when modelling based on differing scales. Location Central Oregon and St. Croix Island. Taxa Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, Triticum aestivum. Methods We compared empirically derived primary disease gradients of cereal rust across three spatial scales: local (inoculum source and sampling unit = 0.0254 m, spatial extent = 1.52 m) field‐wide (inoculum source = 1.52 m, sampling unit = 0.305 m and spatial extent = 91.4 m) and regional (inoculum source and sampling unit = 152 m, spatial extent = 10.5 km). We then examined whether disease spread in spatially explicit simulations depended upon the scale at which data were collected by constructing a compartmental time‐step model. Results The three data sets could be fit well by a single power law dispersal kernel. Simulating epidemic spread at different spatial resolutions resulted in similar patterns of spatiotemporal spread. Dispersal kernel data obtained at one spatial scale can be used to represent spatiotemporal disease spread at a larger spatial scale. Main Conclusions Organisms spread by aerially dispersed small propagules that exhibit LDD may follow similar dispersal patterns over a several hundred‐ or thousand‐fold expanse of spatial scale. Given that the primary mechanisms driving aerial dispersal remains constant, it may be possible to extrapolate across scales when empirical data are unavailable at a scale of interest.

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Mineralization is the most fundamental process in vertebrates. It is predominantly mediated by osteoblasts, which secrete mineral precursors, most likely through matrix vesicles (MVs). These vesicular structures are calcium and phosphate rich and contain organic material such as acidic proteins. However, it remains largely unknown how intracellular MVs are transported and secreted. Here, we use scanning electron-assisted dielectric microscopy and super-resolution microscopy for assessing live osteoblasts in mineralizing conditions at a nanolevel resolution. We found that the calcium-containing vesicles were multivesicular bodies containing MVs. They were transported via lysosome and secreted by exocytosis. Thus, we present proof that the lysosome transports amorphous calcium phosphate within mineralizing osteoblasts.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Over 140 Mha of restoration commitments have been pledged across the global tropics, yet guidance is needed to identify those landscapes where implementation is likely to provide the greatest potential benefits and cost-effective outcomes. By overlaying seven recent, peer-reviewed spatial datasets as proxies for socioenvironmental benefits and feasibility of restoration, we identified restoration opportunities (areas with higher potential return of benefits and feasibility) in lowland tropical rainforest landscapes. We found restoration opportunities throughout the tropics. Areas scoring in the top 10% (i.e., restoration hotspots) are located largely within conservation hotspots (88%) and in countries committed to the Bonn Challenge (73%), a global effort to restore 350 Mha by 2030. However, restoration hotspots represented only a small portion (19.1%) of the Key Biodiversity Area network. Concentrating restoration investments in landscapes with high benefits and feasibility would maximize the potential to mitigate anthropogenic impacts and improve human well-being.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: The response of coral‐reef communities to a major coral‐bleaching event depended on whether reefs were adjacent to islands with seabirds versus islands that lacked seabirds due to the presence of invasive rats. There was a post‐bleaching shift in benthic communities only around islands with seabirds, characterized by an increase in Halimeda and crustose coralline algae (CCA) (a). Overall fish community structure around both island types shifted following the bleaching event, characterized by a loss of planktivores and corallivores (b). However, biomass of key feeding groups, namely herbivores and piscivores, remained higher around islands with seabirds compared to islands with rats. Abstract Cross‐ecosystem nutrient subsidies play a key role in the structure and dynamics of recipient communities, but human activities are disrupting these links. Because nutrient subsidies may also enhance community stability, the effects of losing these inputs may be exacerbated in the face of increasing climate‐related disturbances. Nutrients from seabirds nesting on oceanic islands enhance the productivity and functioning of adjacent coral reefs, but it is unknown whether these subsidies affect the response of coral reefs to mass bleaching events or whether the benefits of these nutrients persist following bleaching. To answer these questions, we surveyed benthic organisms and fishes around islands with seabirds and nearby islands without seabirds due to the presence of invasive rats. Surveys were conducted in the Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean, immediately before the 2015–2016 mass bleaching event and, in 2018, two years following the bleaching event. Regardless of the presence of seabirds, relative coral cover declined by 32%. However, there was a post‐bleaching shift in benthic community structure around islands with seabirds, which did not occur around islands with invasive rats, characterized by increases in two types of calcareous algae (crustose coralline algae [CCA] and Halimeda spp.). All feeding groups of fishes were positively affected by seabirds, but only herbivores and piscivores were unaffected by the bleaching event and sustained the greatest difference in biomass between islands with seabirds versus those with invasive rats. By contrast, corallivores and planktivores, both of which are coral‐dependent, experienced the greatest losses following bleaching. Even though seabird nutrients did not enhance community‐wide resistance to bleaching, they may still promote recovery of these reefs through their positive influence on CCA and herbivorous fishes. More broadly, the maintenance of nutrient subsidies, via strategies including eradication of invasive predators, may be important in shaping the response of ecological communities to global climate change.

Beschreibung: Irrigated agriculture alters near‐surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. This is the first study to quantify irrigation‐induced climate change in the Midwest United States using a 60 km transect consisting of 28 meteorological sensors across the Wisconsin Central Sands region. Irrigated agriculture decreased the diurnal temperature range and vapor pressure deficit compared to rainfed agriculture and forests. These regional climate impacts must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, groundwater quality concerns, and surface water degradation when evaluating irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States. Abstract Irrigated agriculture alters near‐surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation‐induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land‐use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year‐round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land‐use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater‐sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.

Beschreibung: We combined the use of a unique whole‐ecosystem warming approach coupled with microbial community analyses and functional assessments through two growth seasons. We found microbial diversity and nitrogen fixation decreased with warming treatment. Abstract Sphagnum‐dominated peatlands comprise a globally important pool of soil carbon (C) and are vulnerable to climate change. While peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum are known to harbor diverse microbial communities that mediate C and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands, the effects of climate change on Sphagnum microbiome composition and functioning are largely unknown. We investigated the impacts of experimental whole‐ecosystem warming on the Sphagnum moss microbiome, focusing on N2 fixing microorganisms (diazotrophs). To characterize the microbiome response to warming, we performed next‐generation sequencing of small subunit (SSU) rRNA and nitrogenase (nifH) gene amplicons and quantified rates of N2 fixation activity in Sphagnum fallax individuals sampled from experimental enclosures over 2 years in a northern Minnesota, USA bog. The taxonomic diversity of overall microbial communities and diazotroph communities, as well as N2 fixation rates, decreased with warming (p 〈 0.05). Following warming, diazotrophs shifted from a mixed community of Nostocales (Cyanobacteria) and Rhizobiales (Alphaproteobacteria) to predominance of Nostocales. Microbiome community composition differed between years, with some diazotroph populations persisting while others declined in relative abundance in warmed plots in the second year. Our results demonstrate that warming substantially alters the community composition, diversity, and N2 fixation activity of peat moss microbiomes, which may ultimately impact host fitness, ecosystem productivity, and C storage potential in peatlands.

Beschreibung: Six freshly isolated strains of the Arctic diatom Thalassiosira hyalina were incubated as mono‐ and multistrain cultures under different temperature and CO2 conditions. Although strains originated from the same water sample, monocultures showed large physiological diversity. When tested all together in multistrain cultures, selection dynamics as well as bulk physiology within these artificial populations differed fundamentally between the two treatments and diverged strongly from predictions based on monoculture traits. This suggests that cells change their phenotype depending on their biological surroundings and that such intraspecific interactions need to be better understood to predict future phytoplankton ecology from experimental data. Abstract Arctic phytoplankton and their response to future conditions shape one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet. We tested how much the phenotypic responses of strains from the same Arctic diatom population diverge and whether the physiology and intraspecific composition of multistrain populations differs from expectations based on single strain traits. To this end, we conducted incubation experiments with the diatom Thalassiosira hyalina under present‐day and future temperature and pCO2 treatments. Six fresh isolates from the same Svalbard population were incubated as mono‐ and multistrain cultures. For the first time, we were able to closely follow intraspecific selection within an artificial population using microsatellites and allele‐specific quantitative PCR. Our results showed not only that there is substantial variation in how strains of the same species cope with the tested environments but also that changes in genotype composition, production rates, and cellular quotas in the multistrain cultures are not predictable from monoculture performance. Nevertheless, the physiological responses as well as strain composition of the artificial populations were highly reproducible within each environment. Interestingly, we only detected significant strain sorting in those populations exposed to the future treatment. This study illustrates that the genetic composition of populations can change on very short timescales through selection from the intraspecific standing stock, indicating the potential for rapid population level adaptation to climate change. We further show that individuals adjust their phenotype not only in response to their physicochemical but also to their biological surroundings. Such intraspecific interactions need to be understood in order to realistically predict ecosystem responses to global change.

Beschreibung: We present a fine‐resolution assessment of the persistence of global plant biodiversity under land‐use and climate change scenarios, using generalized dissimilarity modelling and the species–area relationship. We estimate the number of species committed to extinction has increased by 60% globally during the 20th century; this value is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under a sustainable land‐use scenario and to greatly increase under more intensive land‐use change scenarios. Alarmingly, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land use; sustainable land‐use planning might not be sufficient to prevent biodiversity loss, without a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times.  Abstract Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine‐resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to 〉52 million records of 〉254 thousand plant species, with the species–area relationship, to estimate the effect of land‐use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land‐use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio‐economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre‐2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land‐use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7–4.5 times compared to land‐use‐only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land‐use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre‐industrial times is observed.

Beschreibung: We study how climate change may affect an important Neotropical ecosystem: the aquatic food webs inside bromeliad plants. To explore potential mechanisms, we combine common garden experiments and food web manipulations with space‐for‐time community transplants along an elevational gradient. Our study experimentally disentangles the multiple mechanisms by which climate change impacts ecosystems, and demonstrates how a single species can act as a biotic multiplier for climate change, drastically affecting the food web response. Abstract Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space‐for‐time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs.

Beschreibung: Since 1990, the IPCC has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs) including agriculture. Using a database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs, our conclusions are that crop yields decline but with large statistical variation. Livestock effects have almost been quantitatively absent. Mitigation assessments need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security; agriculture has been dealt with inconsistently between the IPCC five ARs. IPCC needs to examine interactions between crop resource use efficiencies and include production and nonproduction aspects of food security. Abstract Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.

Beschreibung: We provide a description of regime shifts of forest carbon sinks in Mediterranean forests (Pinus halepensis Mill.) over 1950–2012. We demonstrate that non‐stationary effects of ocean surface temperature determine the onset of regime shifts of forest carbon uptake. ENSO effects regulated by ocean multidecadal variability (AMO–AMOC) are key in the emergence of multidecadal changes in forest carbon sink activity. The reported negative effects of ocean surface temperature (SST) trends on forest carbon uptake for the last decades are unprecedented over the last 150 years. Abstract The mechanisms translating global circulation changes into rapid abrupt shifts in forest carbon capture in semi‐arid biomes remain poorly understood. Here, we report unprecedented multidecadal shifts in forest carbon uptake in semi‐arid Mediterranean pine forests in Spain over 1950–2012. The averaged carbon sink reduction varies between 31% and 37%, and reaches values in the range of 50% in the most affected forest stands. Regime shifts in forest carbon uptake are associated with climatic early warning signals, decreased forest regional synchrony and reduced long‐term carbon sink resilience. We identify the mechanisms linked to ocean multidecadal variability that shape regime shifts in carbon capture. First, we show that low‐frequency variations of the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean induce shifts in the non‐stationary effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on regional forest carbon capture. Modelling evidence supports that the non‐stationary effects of ENSO can be propagated from tropical areas to semi‐arid Mediterranean biomes through atmospheric wave trains. Second, decadal changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly alter sea–air heat exchanges, modifying in turn ocean vapour transport over land and land surface temperatures, and promoting sustained drought conditions in spring and summer that reduce forest carbon uptake. Third, we show that lagged effects of AMO on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation also contribute to the maintenance of long‐term droughts. Finally, we show that the reported strong, negative effects of ocean surface temperature (AMO) on forest carbon uptake in the last decades are unprecedented over the last 150 years. Our results provide new, unreported explanations for carbon uptake shifts in these drought‐prone forests and review the expected impacts of global warming on the profiled mechanisms.

Beschreibung: Coral bleaching and mortality following marine heatwaves are transforming coral reefs, but the long‐term effects of habitat turnover for coral reef fishes remain unclear. Using a 23‐year time series spanning a severe marine heatwave, we show that reef fish communities persisted in altered compositions 〉15 years after mass coral mortality. After bleaching, herbivore dominance was typical of all reefs, and new macroalgal habitats were most dissimilar to their historic compositions. Frequent and severe bleaching events caused by ocean warming will prevent reef fish communities from recovering to their prebleaching state. Abstract Ecological communities are reorganizing in response to warming temperatures. For continuous ocean habitats this reorganization is characterized by large‐scale species redistribution, but for tropical discontinuous habitats such as coral reefs, spatial isolation coupled with strong habitat dependence of fish species imply that turnover and local extinctions are more significant mechanisms. In these systems, transient marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and profoundly altering habitat structure, yet despite severe bleaching events becoming more frequent and projections indicating annual severe bleaching by the 2050s at most reefs, long‐term effects on the diversity and structure of fish assemblages remain unclear. Using a 23‐year time series spanning a thermal stress event, we describe and model structural changes and recovery trajectories of fish communities after mass bleaching. Communities changed fundamentally, with the new emergent communities dominated by herbivores and persisting for 〉15 years, a period exceeding realized and projected intervals between thermal stress events on coral reefs. Reefs which shifted to macroalgal states had the lowest species richness and highest compositional dissimilarity, whereas reefs where live coral recovered exceeded prebleaching fish richness, but remained dissimilar to prebleaching compositions. Given realized and projected frequencies of bleaching events, our results show that fish communities historically associated with coral reefs will not re‐establish, requiring substantial adaptation by managers and resource users.

Beschreibung: Many populations face large changes in seasonal climate, yet the demographic mechanisms that mediate the impact of these changes on population dynamics remain largely unknown. We demonstrate a widely applicable method to facilitate better understanding of the mechanisms through which climatic variables drive population responses. In a well‐studied mammal population we found that a single axis accounts for most of the (co)variation in survival and reproduction and when we attribute seasonal impacts of climatic variables to this axis we find that the direction and magnitude of their effects changes over the course of a year. Abstract Predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change requires the underlying environmental drivers to be identified. As vital rates vary over the lifecycle, structured population models derived from statistical environment–demography relationships are often used to inform such predictions. Environmental drivers are typically identified independently for different vital rates and demographic classes. However, these rates often exhibit positive temporal covariance, suggesting that vital rates respond to common environmental drivers. Additionally, models often only incorporate average weather conditions during a single, a priori chosen time window (e.g. monthly means). Mismatches between these windows and the period when the vital rates are sensitive to variation in climate decrease the predictive performance of such approaches. We used a demographic structural equation model (SEM) to demonstrate that a single axis of environmental variation drives the majority of the (co)variation in survival, reproduction, and twinning across six age–sex classes in a Soay sheep population. This axis provides a simple target for the complex task of identifying the drivers of vital rate variation. We used functional linear models (FLMs) to determine the critical windows of three local climatic drivers, allowing the magnitude and direction of the climate effects to differ over time. Previously unidentified lagged climatic effects were detected in this well‐studied population. The FLMs had a better predictive performance than selecting a critical window a priori, but not than a large‐scale climate index. Positive covariance amongst vital rates and temporal variation in the effects of environmental drivers are common, suggesting our SEM–FLM approach is a widely applicable tool for exploring the joint responses of vital rates to environmental change.

Beschreibung: Elevated pCO2 and warming may promote algal growth and toxin production, and thereby possibly support the proliferation and toxicity of HABs. Using a meta‐analytic approach we found that elevated pCO2 increased growth rates of dinoflagellate HAB species, while this was not the case for non‐HAB phytoplankton species. Warming also led to higher growth rates, but mainly for species isolated at higher latitudes. These results warn for a greater potential of dinoflagellate HAB development in future coastal waters, particularly in temperate regions. Abstract Elevated pCO2 and warming may promote algal growth and toxin production, and thereby possibly support the proliferation and toxicity of harmful algal blooms (HABs). Here, we tested whether empirical data support this hypothesis using a meta‐analytic approach and investigated the responses of growth rate and toxin content or toxicity of numerous marine and estuarine HAB species to elevated pCO2 and warming. Most of the available data on HAB responses towards the two tested climate change variables concern dinoflagellates, as many members of this phytoplankton group are known to cause HAB outbreaks. Toxin content and toxicity did not reveal a consistent response towards both tested climate change variables, while growth rate increased consistently with elevated pCO2. Warming also led to higher growth rates, but only for species isolated at higher latitudes. The observed gradient in temperature growth responses shows the potential for enhanced development of HABs at higher latitudes. Increases in growth rates with more CO2 may present an additional competitive advantage for HAB species, particularly as CO2 was not shown to enhance growth rate of other non‐HAB phytoplankton species. However, this may also be related to the difference in representation of dinoflagellate and diatom species in the respective HAB and non‐HAB phytoplankton groups. Since the proliferation of HAB species may strongly depend on their growth rates, our results warn for a greater potential of dinoflagellate HAB development in future coastal waters, particularly in temperate regions.

Beschreibung: This study addresses how nutrient addition regulates biological nitrogen (N) fixation (BNF) in terrestrial ecosystems and uncovers the latitude patterns and drivers of BNF in response to nutrient enrichment. We found a negative effect of N addition, a positive effect of Micro addition, and an inconsistent effect of P addition on terrestrial BNF and also observed a less sensitivity of BNF to nutrient addition in low‐latitude biomes than in mid‐/high‐latitude biomes. Our findings indicate that certain types of global change (warming, elevated precipitation and N deposition) may reduce the nutrient constraints of BNF in mid‐/high‐latitude biomes. Abstract Biological nitrogen (N) fixation (BNF), an important source of N in terrestrial ecosystems, plays a critical role in terrestrial nutrient cycling and net primary productivity. Currently, large uncertainty exists regarding how nutrient availability regulates terrestrial BNF and the drivers responsible for this process. We conducted a global meta‐analysis of terrestrial BNF in response to N, phosphorus (P), and micronutrient (Micro) addition across different biomes (i.e, tropical/subtropical forest, savanna, temperate forest, grassland, boreal forest, and tundra) and explored whether the BNF responses were affected by fertilization regimes (nutrient‐addition rates, duration, and total load) and environmental factors (mean annual temperature [MAT], mean annual precipitation [MAP], and N deposition). The results showed that N addition inhibited terrestrial BNF (by 19.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.7%‒20.3%); hereafter), Micro addition stimulated terrestrial BNF (30.4% [25.7%‒35.3%]), and P addition had an inconsistent effect on terrestrial BNF, i.e., inhibiting free‐living N fixation (7.5% [4.4%‒10.6%]) and stimulating symbiotic N fixation (85.5% [25.8%‒158.7%]). Furthermore, the response ratios (i.e., effect sizes) of BNF to nutrient addition were smaller in low‐latitude (〈30°) biomes (8.5%‒36.9%) than in mid‐/high‐latitude (≥30°) biomes (32.9%‒61.3%), and the sensitivity (defined as the absolute value of response ratios) of BNF to nutrients in mid‐/high‐latitude biomes decreased with decreasing latitude (p ≤ 0.009; linear/logarithmic regression models). Fertilization regimes did not affect this phenomenon (p 〉 0.05), but environmental factors did affect it (p 〈 0.001) because MAT, MAP, and N deposition accounted for 5%‒14%, 10%‒32%, and 7%‒18% of the variance in the BNF response ratios in cold (MAT 〈 15°C), low‐rainfall (MAP 〈 2,500 mm), and low‐N‐deposition (〈7 kg ha−1 year−1) biomes, respectively. Overall, our meta‐analysis depicts a global pattern of nutrient impacts on terrestrial BNF and indicates that certain types of global change (i.e., warming, elevated precipitation and N deposition) may reduce the sensitivity of BNF in response to nutrient enrichment in mid‐/high‐latitude biomes.

Beschreibung: Exposure of a temperate heath/grassland to elevated CO2 (eCO2), warming, and drought, in all combinations for 8 years resulted in a progressive increase in soil carbon stocks under eCO2. The response to eCO2 was not affected by simultaneous exposure to warming and drought. The robust increase in soil C under eCO2 suggests that there is continued and strong potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration in some ecosystems to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations under future climate conditions Abstract Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change may substantially alter soil carbon (C) dynamics, which in turn may impact future climate through feedback cycles. However, only very few field experiments worldwide have combined elevated CO2 (eCO2) with both warming and changes in precipitation in order to study the potential combined effects of changes in these fundamental drivers of C cycling in ecosystems. We exposed a temperate heath/grassland to eCO2, warming, and drought, in all combinations for 8 years. At the end of the study, soil C stocks were on average 0.927 kg C/m2 higher across all treatment combinations with eCO2 compared to ambient CO2 treatments (equal to an increase of 0.120 ± 0.043 kg C m−2 year−1), and showed no sign of slowed accumulation over time. However, if observed pretreatment differences in soil C are taken into account, the annual rate of increase caused by eCO2 may be as high as 0.177 ± 0.070 kg C m−2 year−1. Furthermore, the response to eCO2 was not affected by simultaneous exposure to warming and drought. The robust increase in soil C under eCO2 observed here, even when combined with other climate change factors, suggests that there is continued and strong potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration in some ecosystems to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations under future climate conditions. The feedback between land C and climate remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections, yet experimental data under simulated future climate, and especially including combined changes, are still scarce. Globally coordinated and distributed experiments with long‐term measurements of changes in soil C in response to the three major climate change‐related global changes, eCO2, warming, and changes in precipitation patterns, are, therefore, urgently needed.

Beschreibung: In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi‐arid Australian rangeland system. Forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought events as well as by long‐term climate trends. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the interannual (year‐to‐year) and intra‐annual (month‐to‐month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long‐term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. Abstract Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi‐arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long‐term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the interannual (year‐to‐year) and intra‐annual (month‐to‐month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effect on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long‐term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide.

Beschreibung: Cover crops significantly (p 〈 0.001) decreased N leaching and significantly (p 〈 0.001) increased soil organic carbon sequestration without having significant (p 〉 0.05) effects on direct N2O emissions. Cover crops could mitigate net greenhouse gas balance by 2.06 ± 2.10 Mg CO2‐eq ha−1 year−1. One of the potential disadvantages of the cover crops identified was the reduction in grain yield of the primary crop by ≈4%, compared to the control treatment. This drawback could be avoided by selecting legume–non‐legume mixed cover crops. However, cover crop management need to be adapted to specific soil, management and regional climatic conditions. Abstract Cover crops play an increasingly important role in improving soil quality, reducing agricultural inputs and improving environmental sustainability. The main objectives of this critical global review and systematic analysis were to assess cover crop practices in the context of their impacts on nitrogen leaching, net greenhouse gas balances (NGHGB) and crop productivity. Only studies that investigated the impacts of cover crops and measured one or a combination of nitrogen leaching, soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrous oxide (N2O), grain yield and nitrogen in grain of primary crop, and had a control treatment were included in the analysis. Long‐term studies were uncommon, with most data coming from studies lasting 2–3 years. The literature search resulted in 106 studies carried out at 372 sites and covering different countries, climatic zones and management. Our analysis demonstrates that cover crops significantly (p 〈 0.001) decreased N leaching and significantly (p 〈 0.001) increased SOC sequestration without having significant (p 〉 0.05) effects on direct N2O emissions. Cover crops could mitigate the NGHGB by 2.06 ± 2.10 Mg CO2‐eq ha−1 year−1. One of the potential disadvantages of cover crops identified was the reduction in grain yield of the primary crop by ≈4%, compared to the control treatment. This drawback could be avoided by selecting mixed cover crops with a range of legumes and non‐legumes, which increased the yield by ≈13%. These advantages of cover crops justify their widespread adoption. However, management practices in relation to cover crops will need to be adapted to specific soil, management and regional climatic conditions.

Beschreibung: We manipulated the rate and frequency of nitrogen inputs for six consecutive years in a temperate grassland in northern China and measured aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) from 2012 to 2014. We found that in the low range of N addition rates, BNPP showed the greatest negative response and ANPP showed the greatest positive responses with increases in N addition. As N addition increased beyond 10 g N m−2 year−1, increases in ANPP dampened and decreases in BNPP ceased altogether. Abstract Nitrogen (N) enrichment often increases aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of the ecosystem, but it is unclear if belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) track responses of ANPP. Moreover, the frequency of N inputs may affect primary productivity but is rarely studied. To assess the response patterns of above‐ and belowground productivity to rates of N addition under different addition frequencies, we manipulated the rate (0–50 g N m−2 year−1) and frequency (twice vs. monthly additions per year) of NH4NO3 inputs for six consecutive years in a temperate grassland in northern China and measured ANPP and BNPP from 2012 to 2014. In the low range of N addition rates, BNPP showed the greatest negative response and ANPP showed the greatest positive responses with increases in N addition (〈10 g N m−2 year−1). As N addition increased beyond 10 g N m−2 year−1, increases in ANPP dampened and decreases in BNPP ceased altogether. The response pattern of net primary productivity (combined above‐ and belowground; NPP) corresponded more closely to ANPP than to BNPP. The N effects on BNPP and BNPP/NPP (fBNPP) were not dependent on N addition frequency in the range of N additions typically associated with N deposition. BNPP was more sensitive to N addition frequency than ANPP, especially at low rates of N addition. Our findings provide new insights into how plants regulate carbon allocation to different organs with increasing N rates and changing addition frequencies. These root response patterns, if incorporated into Earth system models, may improve the predictive power of C dynamics in dryland ecosystems in the face of global atmospheric N deposition.

Beschreibung: Abstract Aim To identify the effect of multiple, temporally close, forcing events (i.e. climate‐driven habitat fragmentations/homogenizations) in shaping current patterns of biodiversity in alpine areas. Given their spatial configuration, alpine areas have been traditionally seen as islands surrounded by an “ocean” of unsuitable lands. A quantitative assessment of the effects of Holocene climate fluctuations on islands area and inter‐island connectivity is crucial to finely reconstruct past biodiversity dynamics and forecast species responses to future changes. Location Italy. Taxa Carabidae (Ground beetles), Chrysomelidae (Leaf beetles), Elateridae (Click beetles), Orthoptera (Grasshoppers and Crickets) and Papilionoidea (Butterflies and Skippers). Methods A total of 1,077 species for 128,093 records were analysed and a classification based on their functional traits allowed identifying groups of good and poor dispersers within each taxon. A dynamic discrete model of ecosystem evolution provided the spatio‐temporal context to test two competing (transient equilibria vs. nonequilibrium) dynamics based on different colonization capabilities. In the transient equilibria dynamic the species are able to respond to island evolution through successful dispersal and colonization events, whereas in the nonequilibrium dynamic ineffective immigration constrains the current species richness to that generated by the strongest island contraction. Results With the exception of Elateridae, good dispersers (Chrysomelidae and Papilionoidea) responded to environmental changes by establishing a series of transient equilibria. In contrast, the nonequilibrium dynamic better described patterns of species richness in poor dispersers (Carabidae and Orthoptera). Main conclusions Our approach could be used as the basis for the development of spatially and temporally explicit models of island evolution and could be a valuable tool for quantifying the sensitivity of single taxa to climate‐driven habitat changes. It also represents a further step towards the forecasting of future responses to climate change and the accompanying development of conservation strategies that more effectively respond to the detrimental impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Beschreibung: A schematic illustration of the assimilation windows employed by the ECMWF Long Window Data Assimilation (LWDA) system. Black dots represent observations distributed quasi‐randomly in time throughout the window. This study quantifies the extent to which the ECMWF 4D‐Var displays differential (heightened) sensitivity to observations located near the end of the 12‐hr assimilation time window compared to observations located near the start of the window. Using dedicated satellite data denial experiments, it is shown that the lattermost 3 hr of observations are significantly more influential on the quality of the assimilation and forecasting system than the first 3 hr of data. Furthermore, it is found that the last 3 hr of data even outperforms the 6 hr of data (i.e. twice the number of observations) located in the first half of the window. The heightened importance of late window data is discussed in terms of these measurements being our most up‐to‐date information on the atmosphere, but also their ability to provide additional dynamical information to the assimilation system via feature advection wind tracing. The implications of this sensitivity are discussed. Firstly, it leads to the existence of influential (late window) satellite orbits, the location of which can have a strong bearing on the impact of observations from different satellites in different regions. Secondly, this sensitivity reinforces the need for data providers to minimize dissemination delays to ensure that crucial late window data reach users in time to be assimilated. Finally, numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres (who run 4D systems) must ensure that these lattermost observations are being captured and used effectively. Some suggestions for this are proposed.

Beschreibung: The Netherlands is characterized by highly variable land use within a small area, and a strong influence of the North Sea on national climate. Devoid of significant topography, it is an excellent location for assessing the relative influence of various factors on fog occurrence in the absence of terrain effects. Using observations from a dense network of weather stations throughout the country, the climatology of fog in the Netherlands is assessed over a period of 45 years. On a national scale, inter‐annual variability is linked to changes in synoptic pressure‐gradient forcing. Within the country, a comprehensive in‐depth analysis of regional differences between fog occurrence is made, together with an assessment of local physical factors that could bias fog formation in one location over another. Regional variability is shown to be strongly related to the mesoscale influences of urbanization and the North Sea. In fact, some locations experience over twice as much fog as others. From this finding, a simple index is presented, which combines the water and urban fraction surrounding a station. This “Regionally Weighted Index” (RWI) is able to accurately sort the stations according to their relative fogginess. Its practical use is encouraged for assessing a given site's climatological favourability, even when in situ meteorological observations are unavailable. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Beschreibung: Abstract Reliable estimation of the volume and timing of snowmelt runoff is vital for water supply and flood forecasting in snow‐dominated regions. Snowmelt is often simulated using temperature‐index (TI) models due to their applicability in data‐sparse environments. Previous research has shown that a modified‐TI model, which uses a radiation‐derived proxy temperature instead of air temperature as its surrogate for available energy, can produce more accurate snow covered area (SCA) maps than a traditional TI model. However, it is unclear whether the improved SCA maps are associated with improved snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation across the watershed or improved snowmelt‐derived streamflow simulation. This paper evaluates whether a modified‐TI model produces better streamflow estimates than a TI model when they are used within a fully‐distributed hydrologic model. It further evaluates the performance of the two models when they are calibrated using either point SWE measurements or SCA maps. The Senator Beck Basin in Colorado is used as the study site because its surface is largely bedrock, which reduces the role of infiltration and emphasizes the role of the SWE pattern on streamflow generation. Streamflow is simulated using both models for six years. The modified‐TI model produces more accurate streamflow estimates (including flow volume and peak flow rate) than the TI model, likely because the modified‐TI model better reproduces the SWE pattern across the watershed. Both models also produce better performance when calibrated with SCA maps instead of point SWE data, likely because the SCA maps better constrain the space‐time pattern of SWE.

Beschreibung: Abstract The development of glacier karst at the margins of melting ice sheets produces complex glaciofluvial sediment‐landform assemblages that provide information on ice sheet downwasting processes. We present the first combined geomorphological, sedimentological and geophysical investigation of the Brampton Kame Belt, an important glaciofluvial depositional zone at the centre of the last British‐Irish Ice Sheet. Ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) data allow the broad scale internal architecture of ridges (eskers) and flat‐topped hills (ice‐walled lake plains) to be determined at four sites. In combination with sediment exposures, these provide information on lateral and vertical variations in accretion styles, depositional boundaries, and grain size changes. Building on existing work on the subject, we propose a refined model for the formation of ice‐walled lake plains resulting from the evolution and collapse of major drainage axes into lakes as stable glacier karst develops during deglaciation. The internal structure of esker ridges demonstrates variations in sedimentation that can be linked to differences in ridge morphologies across the kame belt. This includes low energy flow conditions and multiple accretion phases identified within large S‐N oriented esker ridges; and fluctuating water pressures, hyperconcentrated flows, and significant deformation within a fragmented SW‐NE oriented esker ridge. In combination with updated geomorphological mapping, this work allows us to identify two main styles of drainage within the kame belt: (1) major drainage axes aligned broadly S‐N that extend through the entire kame belt and collapsed into a chain of ice‐walled lakes; and (2) a series of smaller, fragmented SW‐NE aligned esker ridges that represent ice‐marginal drainage as the ice sheet receded south‐eastwards up the Vale of Eden. Our study demonstrates the importance of integrated geomorphological, sedimentological and geophysical investigations in order to understand complex and polyphase glaciofluvial sediment‐landform assemblages.

Beschreibung: Abstract Aims Phylogenetic endemism describes the extent to which unique phylogenetic lineages are constrained to restricted geographic areas. Previous studies indicate that species endemism is related to both past and modern climate, but studies of phylogenetic endemism are relatively rare and mainly focused on smaller regions. Here, we provide the first assessment of the patterns of species and phylogenetic endemism in angiosperm trees across the Northern Hemisphere as well as the relative importance of modern climate and glacial–interglacial climate change as drivers of these patterns. Location Northern Hemisphere. Major taxa Angiosperm trees. Methods Using tree assemblages at the scale of 100 km × 100 km grid cells and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models, we assessed the relationships between species endemism, phylogenetic endemism and modern climate variables, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present temperature velocity. Results Species and phylogenetic endemism were associated with both modern climate and glacial–interglacial climate change, with higher values in areas with stable historical climate and warmer and wetter modern conditions. Notably, the multivariate SAR analyses showed that the combinations of variables with highest Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) weight always included both LGM–present climate instability and modern climate, that is, modern precipitation and temperature. Main conclusions Our results show that high phylogenetic endemism is partially dependent on long‐term climate stability, highlighting the threat posed by future climate changes to the preservation of rare, phylogenetically distinct lineages of trees.

Beschreibung: Abstract Oxygen deficient zones (ODZs) in the tropical ocean exert a profound influence on global biogeochemical cycles, but the factors that regulate their long‐term structure and sensitivity to oceanic change remain poorly understood. We analyzed hydrographic observations and a high‐resolution physical/biogeochemical model to diagnose the primary pathways that ventilate the tropical Pacific ODZs. Historical and recent autonomous observations reveal pronounced and widespread O2 peaks, termed secondary oxygen maxima (SOMs), within the depths of the broader O2 minimum layer, especially at the equatorward edge of both northern and southern ODZs. In the northern ODZ, Lagrangian particle tracking in an eddy‐permitting numerical model simulation attributes these features to intrusions of the Northern Subsurface Countercurrent along the equatorial edge of the ODZ. Zonal subsurface jets also ventilate the poleward edge of the northern ODZ but induce a smaller O2 flux and do not yield detectable SOMs. Along the ODZ's eastern boundary, oxygenation is achieved by the seasonal cycle of upwelling of low‐O2 water onto the continental shelf, followed by downwelling of O2‐replenished near‐surface waters back into the ODZ. Waters entering the northern Pacific ODZ originate from the extratropics in both hemispheres, but two thirds are from the Southern Hemisphere and arrive later and with a wider range of transit times. These results suggest that predicting future changes in the large Pacific ODZs will require a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of the narrow zonal jets and seasonal dynamics of coastal upwelling that supply their O2.

Beschreibung: 〈p〉In engineering, the "softness" of an object, as measured by an indenter, manifests as two measurable parameters: (i) indentation depth and (ii) contact area. For humans, softness is not well defined, although it is believed that perception depends on the same two parameters. Decoupling their relative contributions, however, has not been straightforward because most bulk—"off-the-shelf"—materials exhibit the same ratio between the indentation depth and contact area. Here, we decoupled indentation depth and contact area by fabricating elastomeric slabs with precise thicknesses and microstructured surfaces. Human subject experiments using two-alternative forced-choice and magnitude estimation tests showed that the indentation depth and contact area contributed independently to perceived softness. We found an explicit relationship between the perceived softness of an object and its geometric properties. Using this approach, it is possible to design objects for human interaction with a desired level of perceived softness.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉The electronic energy and dynamics of solvated electrons, the simplest yet elusive chemical species, is of interest in chemistry, physics, and biology. Here, we present the electron binding energy distributions of solvated electrons in liquid water, methanol, and ethanol accurately measured using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photoelectron spectroscopy of liquids with a single-order high harmonic. The distributions are Gaussian in all cases. Using the EUV and UV photoelectron spectra of solvated electrons, we succeeded in retrieving sharp electron kinetic energy distributions from the spectra broadened and energy shifted by inelastic scattering in liquids, overcoming an obstacle in ultrafast UV photoelectron spectroscopy of liquids. The method is demonstrated for the benchmark systems of charge transfer to solvent reaction and ultrafast internal conversion of hydrated electron from the first excited state.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Topological surface states (TSSs) in a topological insulator are expected to be able to produce a spin-orbit torque that can switch a neighboring ferromagnet. This effect may be absent if the ferromagnet is conductive because it can completely suppress the TSSs, but it should be present if the ferromagnet is insulating. This study reports TSS-induced switching in a bilayer consisting of a topological insulator Bi〈sub〉2〈/sub〉Se〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 and an insulating ferromagnet BaFe〈sub〉12〈/sub〉O〈sub〉19〈/sub〉. A charge current in Bi〈sub〉2〈/sub〉Se〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 can switch the magnetization in BaFe〈sub〉12〈/sub〉O〈sub〉19〈/sub〉 up and down. When the magnetization is switched by a field, a current in Bi〈sub〉2〈/sub〉Se〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 can reduce the switching field by ~4000 Oe. The switching efficiency at 3 K is 300 times higher than at room temperature; it is ~30 times higher than in Pt/BaFe〈sub〉12〈/sub〉O〈sub〉19〈/sub〉. These strong effects originate from the presence of more pronounced TSSs at low temperatures due to enhanced surface conductivity and reduced bulk conductivity.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉The in situ two-dimensional (2D) and 3D imaging of the chemical speciation of organic fossils is an unsolved problem in paleontology and cultural heritage. Here, we use x-ray Raman scattering (XRS)–based imaging at the carbon K-edge to form 2D and 3D images of the carbon chemistry in two exceptionally preserved specimens, a fossil plant dating back from the Carboniferous and an ancient insect entrapped in 53-million-year-old amber. The 2D XRS imaging of the plant fossil reveals a homogeneous chemical composition with micrometric "pockets" of preservation, likely inherited from its geological history. The 3D XRS imaging of the insect cuticle displays an exceptionally well preserved remaining chemical signature typical of polysaccharides such as chitin around a largely hollowed-out inclusion. Our results open up new perspectives for in situ chemical speciation imaging of fossilized organic materials, with the potential to enhance our understanding of organic specimens and their paleobiology.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉The regeneration of tooth enamel, the hardest biological tissue, remains a considerable challenge because its complicated and well-aligned apatite structure has not been duplicated artificially. We herein reveal that a rationally designed material composed of calcium phosphate ion clusters can be used to produce a precursor layer to induce the epitaxial crystal growth of enamel apatite, which mimics the biomineralization crystalline-amorphous frontier of hard tissue development in nature. After repair, the damaged enamel can be recovered completely because its hierarchical structure and mechanical properties are identical to those of natural enamel. The suggested phase transformation–based epitaxial growth follows a promising strategy for enamel regeneration and, more generally, for biomimetic reproduction of materials with complicated structure.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: Severe winter windstorms have become an increasingly common occurrence over recent decades in northwestern Europe. Although there exists considerable uncertainty, storminess is projected to increase in the future. On centennial to millennial time scales in particular, the mechanisms forcing storminess remain unsettled. We contribute to available palaeostorm records by reconstructing changes over the last 6670 years using a coastal peat sequence retrieved from the ombrotrophic Laphroaig bog on Islay, southwestern Scotland. We use a combination of ash content, grain size and elemental chemistry to identify periods of greater storminess, which are dated to 6605, 6290–6225, 5315–5085, 4505, 3900–3635, 3310–3130, 2920–2380, 2275–2190, 2005–1860, 1305–1090, 805–435 and 275 cal. a BP. Storm signals in the first half of the record up to ~3000 cal. a BP are mainly apparent in the grain‐size changes. Samples from this time period also have a different elemental signature than those later in the record. We speculate that this is due to receding sea levels and the consequent establishment of a new sand source in the form of dunes, which are still present today. The most significant events and strongest winds are found during the Iron Ages Cold Epoch (2645 cal. a BP), the transition into, and in the middle of, the Roman Ages Warm Period (2235 and 1965 cal. a BP) and early in the Little Ice Age (545 cal. a BP). The Laphroaig record generally agrees with regionally relevant peat palaeostorm records from Wales and the Outer Hebrides, although the relative importance of the different storm periods is not the same. In general, stormier periods are coeval with cold periods in the region as evidenced by parallels with increased ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic, highlighting that sea‐ice conditions could impact future storminess and storm track position.

Beschreibung: Abstract This study aims at proposing novel approaches for integrating qualitative flow observations in a lumped hydrologic routing model and assessing their usefulness for improving flood estimation. Routing is based on a three‐parameter Muskingum model used to propagate streamflow in five different rivers in the United States. Qualitative flow observations, synthetically generated from observed flow, are converted into fuzzy observations using flow characteristic for defining fuzzy classes. A model states updating method and a model output correction technique are implemented. An innovative application of Interacting Multiple Models, which use was previously demonstrated on tracking in ballistic missile applications, is proposed as state updating method, together with the traditional Kalman filter. The output corrector approach is based on the fuzzy error corrector, which was previously used for robots navigation. This study demonstrates the usefulness of integrating qualitative flow observations for improving flood estimation. In particular, state updating methods outperform the output correction approach in terms of average improvement of model performances, while the latter is found to be less sensitive to biased observations and to the definition of fuzzy sets used to represent qualitative observations.

Beschreibung: Abstract The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations Agenda 2030 represent an ambitious blueprint to reduce inequalities globally and achieve a sustainable future for all mankind. Meeting the SDGs for water requires an integrated approach to managing and allocating water resources, by involving all actors and stakeholders, and considering how water resources link different sectors of society. To date, water management practice is dominated by technocratic, scenario‐based approaches that may work well in the short‐term, but can result in unintended consequences in the long‐term due to limited accounting of dynamic feedbacks between the natural, technical and social dimensions of human‐water systems. The discipline of socio‐hydrology has an important role to play in informing policy by developing a generalizable understanding of phenomena that arise from interactions between water and human systems. To explain these phenomena, socio‐hydrology must address several scientific challenges to strengthen the field and broaden its scope. These include engagement with social scientists to accommodate social heterogeneity, power relations, trust, cultural beliefs, and cognitive biases, which strongly influence the way in which people alter, and adapt to, changing hydrological regimes. It also requires development of new methods to formulate and test alternative hypotheses for the explanation of emergent phenomena generated by feedbacks between water and society. Advancing socio‐hydrology in these ways therefore represents a major contribution towards meeting the targets set by the SDGs, the societal grand challenge of our time.

Beschreibung: Abstract Field data of topography, water levels, and peat hydraulic conductivity collected over a 28‐year period have revealed the impacts of marginal drainage on uncut raised bog ecohydrology and its peat properties. Drainage of the regional groundwater body has induced changes in the hydraulic properties of deep peat, with peat compression decreasing hydraulic conductivity and storativity while simultaneously introducing localized secondary porosity and effective storage. Where peat has increased in hydraulic conductivity, there is a corresponding decline in vertical hydraulic gradients and significant localized increases in recharge to the underlying substrate. Repeated topographic surveys show intense localized areas of peat consolidation (〉5%) where it is underlain by highly permeable (〉10 m/day) glacial till deposits. More widely, continued subsidence (4–6 mm/year) of the bog surface has been measured over 900 m from the bog margin, resulting in the progressive loss of approximately 40% of actively growing raised bog since 1991. This loss has thus been shown to be attributable to changes in the underlying groundwater head due to deep‐cut drainage, rather than near‐surface peatland drainage. However, although reinstating regional hydrostatic pressures in order to restore this ombrotrophic peatland may control the rapid drainage through preferential flow pathways, this may not eliminate the ecological impacts resulting from changed surface morphology arising from subsidence. Hence, this longitudinal study provides new insights into the role that aquifer systems and groundwater bodies play in maintaining hydrogeological processes in ombrotrophic peatland systems, while highlighting the difficulty in ecological restoration where regional groundwater dependencies are significant.

Beschreibung: Atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is a quantity related to the global distributions of surface pressure and zonal wind. We found that the AAM has increased in the 20th century, mainly due its zonal wind component. However, the AAM budget in the ERA‐20C reanalysis is not well‐closed, which can be largely attributed to the analysis increments. It is well known that global warming in the 20th century has influenced the global circulation of the atmosphere. Atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), a measure of the rotation of the atmosphere around the Earth's axis, is a useful quantity to investigate changes in the global atmospheric circulation. In this study, 20th century trends in the AAM budget are determined using the ERA‐20C reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In addition, the closure of the AAM budget is determined to assess the ability of ERA‐20C to conserve angular momentum. The total AAM has increased in the 20th century, associated mainly with an increasing relative (zonal wind) AAM in most of the stratosphere and the tropical upper troposphere, and a poleward redistribution in the midlatitudes. These trends can be related to the warming in the troposphere and cooling in the lower stratosphere found in this study, likely caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Ω‐AAM, representing the rotation of the atmosphere along with the Earth, shows no clear trend, but a spurious peak around 1920. This peak is caused by a global increase in surface pressure and is considered an artefact of changes in the amount of assimilated observations. It is also found that the AAM budget is not well closed in ERA‐20C, which is mainly the result of the assimilation of observations during production of the reanalysis. The trends in the AAM budget in ERA‐20C are likely affected by changes in the number of assimilated observations and should be validated with other reanalyses in further research.

Beschreibung: (a) Radar at [0800 UTC‐1100 UTC] on 30 October, (b) neighbourhood ensemble probability (NEP) of accumulated rainfall 0800‐1100 UTC on 30 October to exceed rain amounts of 6 mm over the 3 h for EC‐SINGV, and (c) UM‐SINGV. The simulations are initialized at 1500 UTC 29 October. A convective‐scale ensemble system was developed to predict the occurrence of heavy convective rainfall around Singapore with a focus on the prediction of high‐impact events. The new ensemble SINGV‐EPS has been nested within two global ensembles, MOGREPS‐G (UK Met Office) and EC‐ENS (ECMWF). Predicting the occurrence of convective rainfall in an area such as Singapore is challenging and this article discusses the use of the convection‐permitting ensemble to characterize the uncertainties in the prediction of such localized heavy rainfall. First, verification of wind, temperature, and precipitation is performed for a month‐long period to assess the relative performance of each ensemble. This reveals differences, but no robust signal to say one is better than the other. The results are not statistically significant and not all variables are consistently better with one ensemble or the other. Secondly, the precipitation characteristics of SINGV‐EPS are analysed from probabilities of precipitation and variability among the ensemble members. SINGV‐EPS is sensitive to the choice of the global ensemble providing the initial conditions and boundaries. The results suggest there is benefit, in some cases, from combining the two ensembles. Thirdly, the spread of the ensemble precipitation is analysed using the dispersion Fractions Skill Score (dFSS). We compare the impact of the initial perturbations and the perturbations in lateral boundary conditions in both nesting options. The initial perturbations dominate in the beginning of the forecasts, with influence up to T+24 h, and are associated with an upscale growth of the uncertainties. The impact of the parent ensemble and lateral boundary conditions dominate at the end of the forecast and tend to influence larger scales more.

Beschreibung: This study describes different processes leading to heat waves in Europe. Employing backward trajectories, three clusters with coherent thermodynamic characteristics and vertical motions are identified. In two of the three clusters, subsidence is of first‐order importance for high near‐surface temperatures, whereas the third cluster is primarily heated diabatically due to surface sensible heat fluxes. Western Russia, in particular, is largely affected by remote surface fluxes, whereas the British Isles are largely affected by subsidence and adiabatic warming. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of processes determining heat waves across different climates in Europe for the period 1979–2016. Heat waves are defined using a percentile‐based index and the main processes quantified along trajectories are adiabatic compression by subsidence and local and remote diabatic processes in the upper and lower troposphere. This Lagrangian analysis is complemented by an Eulerian calculation of horizontal temperature advection. During typical summers in Europe, one or two heat waves occur, with an average duration of five days. Whereas high near‐surface temperatures over Scandinavia are accompanied by omega‐like blocking structures at 500 hPa, heat waves over the Mediterranean are connected to comparably flat ridges. Tracing air masses backwards from the heat waves, we identify three trajectory clusters with coherent thermodynamic characteristics, vertical motions, and geographic origins. In all regions, horizontal temperature advection is almost negligible. In two of the three clusters, subsidence in the free atmosphere is very important in establishing high temperatures near the surface, while the air masses in the third cluster are warmed primarily due to diabatic heating near the surface. Large interregional differences occur between the British Isles and western Russia. Over the latter region, near‐surface transport and diabatic heating appear to be very important in determining the intensity of the heat waves, whereas subsidence and adiabatic warming are of first‐order importance for the British Isles. Although the large‐scale pattern is quasistationary during heat wave days, new air masses are entrained steadily into the lower troposphere during the life cycle of a heat wave. Overall, the results of the present study provide a guideline as to which processes and diagnostics weather and climate studies should focus on to understand the severity of heat waves.

Beschreibung: We investigate persistent low‐frequency variability of the stratospheric winter polar vortex in a rotating spherical shallow‐water model under the action of topographic wave‐forcing and radiative cooling to a simple time‐varying equilibrium state representative of the seasonal cycle in solar heating. A range of modes of variability is obtained, dependent on wave forcing amplitude and characterized by the distribution of quiescent and disturbed winters, defined as winters in which the vortex is either close to radiative equilibrium, with low planetary wave amplitude, or else strongly disturbed from equilibrium by the wave forcing. At low forcing amplitude the vortex is typically quiescent every year, while at higher amplitude it is typically disturbed; in both cases there is little year‐to‐year variation of the vortex state. For a range of intermediate forcing amplitudes, however, the vortex transitions between quiescent and disturbed states from one winter to the next with a persistent and well‐defined pattern of variability. To investigate the extent to which the low‐frequency variability found here may be explained in terms of a low‐latitude flywheel mechanism, we conduct additional experiments varying a linear drag on the zonal mean flow in the tropics and find that sufficiently strong drag can completely suppress the variability. The robustness of the variability is demonstrated by further experiments using a modified radiative equilibrium profile, associated with a tropical westerly flow: similar variability is obtained but the modified profile is less effective at constraining the tropical flow from a persistent easterly acceleration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Beschreibung: Two areas – one over the eastern part of the North Atlantic (a) and one over the Baltic Sea (b) – were identified as locations where blocking influences the occurrence of thunderstorms in parts of western and central Europe. Shown is the relative frequency of cases investigated in the study quantifying how often (a) blocking suppresses and (b) blocking supports thunderstorm days in Europe. A statistically significant link is presented between atmospheric blocking located over the eastern North Atlantic and northern Europe and warm‐season thunderstorm activity over western and central Europe. Lightning data from 2001 to 2014 were used to identify thunderstorm days and blocking events were extracted from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis using an objective identification algorithm. The statistical link between the two phenomena is established through odds ratio analysis. Two areas – one over the eastern part of the North Atlantic and one over the Baltic Sea – were identified as locations where blocking influences the occurrence of deep moist convection in parts of western and central Europe. Based on the mean ambient conditions on days with blocking in these two areas, well‐known dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms supporting or suppressing the development of thunderstorms were confirmed. The anticyclonic circulation of a block over the eastern part of the North Atlantic leads to a northerly to northwesterly advection of dry and stable air masses into Europe on the eastern flank of the block. In addition, these environmental conditions are on average associated with large‐scale subsidence of air masses (convection‐inhibiting conditions). In contrast, the southerly to southwesterly advection of warm, moist and unstable air masses on the western flank of a block over the Baltic Sea results in convection‐favouring conditions over western and central Europe. Both blocking situations are on average associated with weak wind speeds at mid‐tropospheric levels and with weak wind shear. As a consequence, thunderstorms related to atmospheric blocking over the Baltic Sea tend to be on average less organised.

Beschreibung: Tropical convective systems are major sources of atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). These waves are a key driver of the global atmospheric circulation, especially in the middle and upper atmosphere. Tropical cyclones (TCs) such as hurricanes and typhoons are particularly dramatic examples of such systems, and are therefore potentially significant individual sources of GWs. To investigate this effect, I produce and analyse GW observations from three satellite limb‐sounders in the vicinity of TCs. By statistically combining 15 years of GW observations from 1 379 individual TCs represented in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, I show that TCs are associated with a 15% increase over background GW amplitudes, and a 25% increase in measured momentum fluxes (MFs), primarily during the period immediately before the TC. I further show that this additional contribution is small relative to other GW‐generating processes, and thus that individual TCs do not have a large quantitative effect on the dynamics of the middle and upper atmosphere as a whole. Thus, I conclude that accurate modelling of TC‐generated short‐vertical‐wavelength GWs need not be a development priority for the next generation of weather and climate models. My results also demonstrate that stronger GW activity is associated with TCs which will later develop into hurricane‐intensity storms than those that will not, and thus that better space‐based monitoring of stratospheric GW activity could be a useful tool to help better forecast strong hurricane events in the presence of obscuring tropospheric cloud. Gravity waves, tropical cyclones, satellites, remote sensing, stratosphere, mesosphere This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Beschreibung: Abstract The mismatch between water demand and water availability in many megacities poses vexing water management challenges. Managers are forced to take remedial efforts to address these challenges, often with a heavy focus on infrastructure solutions such as building reservoirs or interbasin transfers to meet demand, which may in fact exacerbate the problem through unintended consequences that arise from neglect of social, economic, and environmental factors. Such a situation awaits Beijing, China, which faces major water management challenges in spite of the addition of a large interbasin transfer to meet increasing demand. In this study, a sociohydrologic model is developed for investigating Beijing's future water sustainability from a holistic and dynamic perspective. Using the model, we first explore the sociohydrologic mechanisms that contributed to Beijing's worsening water situation during 1988–2014. We then use the model to assess possible future impacts of the South to North Water Diversion Project on Beijing's water supply prospects for the 2015–2035 period. Alternative futures are explored by combining three different sustainable management strategies. The model results show that the source of Beijing's dominant water pressure experienced a transformation from productive to domestic water use over the last 30 years. They also indicate that the transfer water via South to North Water Diversion Project cannot fundamentally reverse Beijing's water shortage in the long term and that demand‐oriented management measures will be required for alleviating the city's water stress. These findings provide guidance not only for Beijing's water management but also for other less developed cities around the world.

Beschreibung: Abstract Nitrification is susceptible to changes in light and pH and, thus, could be influenced by recent sea ice reductions and acidification in the Arctic Ocean. We investigated the sensitivity of nitrification to light, pH, and substrate availability in a natural nitrifier community of the Arctic Ocean. Nitrification was active near the bottom of the shelf region (〈60 m) and in the halocline layer (50–200 m) of the Arctic basin, where ammonium was abundant, but was low in the ammonium‐depleted Atlantic layer (〉250 m). In pH control experiments, nitrification rates significantly declined when the pH was manipulated to be 0.22 lower than the controls. However, nitrification was relatively insensitive to changes in pH compared to changes in light. Light control experiments showed that nitrification was inhibited by a light intensity above 0.11 mol photons m−2 day−1, which was presumably the light threshold. A light intensity greater than the light threshold extended to the shelf bottom and upper halocline layer, limiting nitrification in these waters. Satellite data analyses indicated that the area where light levels inhibit nitrification has increased throughout the Arctic Ocean due to the recent sea ice reduction, which may lead to a declining trend in nitrification. Our results suggest that stronger light levels in the future Arctic Ocean could further suppress nitrification and alter the composition of inorganic nitrogen, with implications for the structure of ecosystems.

Beschreibung: Abstract The stable longitudinal dunes in the northern Simpson Desert, Australia, were observed in satellite imagery to become more active after vegetation cover was reduced by fire and drought. Subsequent rainfall events also resulted in significant vegetation regrowth and dune stabilisation. These switches between more active and stable conditions have not been previously described in the largely vegetated dune fields of central Australia. The observations, made on 12 dune sites, relied on high spatial resolution satellite imagery to observe dune crest activity, and seasonal Landsat fractional cover imagery to observe vegetation cover changes. The non‐photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) component of the fractional vegetation cover images revealed significant changes in hummock grass cover on the dunes between 1988‐2018, with a positive relationship with the 3‐year cumulative rainfall, disrupted by two periods of patchy burning. Only those sites that had burnt became active, and only after vegetation cover had remained low (NPV 〈 16%) during the ‘Millennium Drought’. There is no threshold in vegetation cover, below which dune crests become active, but active dune features require 4‐years of low NPV cover (〈16%) to develop. The large rainfall event that ended the drought increased NPV cover, stabilising the dunes. Similar hummock grass covered dunes are present across large areas of the arid zone, and are likely to respond in similar ways, given that fire and drought are common occurrences in Australia.

Beschreibung: Abstract The data assimilation scheme used in the Met Office's OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis) system has been updated from an OI‐type scheme to a variational assimilation scheme, NEMOVAR. The updated system includes a dual length scale background error correlation operator, and a flow‐dependent component to adjust the length scale combination in favour of the short scale in regions of high sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The NEMOVAR assimilation scheme improves both the analysis performance and the representation of SST features in the OSTIA analysis compared to the OI scheme of the original system. The results of spectral analysis, assessment of horizontal SST gradients and the response of an atmospheric model to the OSTIA SST analysis as a boundary condition indicate that the flow‐dependent formulation successfully contributes to improvements in the feature resolution capability of the analysis. Overall, using a short length scale of 15 km and including a flow‐dependent adjustment component produces the best results compared to using either 40 km or the first Rossby radius of deformation as the short length scale. The new system successfully captures realistic ocean variability without introducing noise into the analysis, allowing the feature resolution capability of the new system to out‐perform that of other comparable SST analysis products. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Beschreibung: Abstract Thermal regime and thickness of the active layer respond rapidly to climate variations, and thus they are important measures of cryosphere changes in polar environments. We monitored air temperature and ground temperature at a depth of 5 cm and modeled active‐layer thickness using the Stefan and Kudryavtsev models at the Abernethy Flats site, James Ross Island, Eastern Antarctic Peninsula, in the period March 2006 to February 2016. The decadal average of air and ground temperature was −7.3 and −6.1°C, respectively, and the average modeled active‐layer thickness reached 60 cm. Mean annual air temperature increased by 0.10°C y−1 over the study period, while mean annual ground temperature showed the opposite tendency of −0.05°C y−1. The cooling took place mainly in summer and caused thawing season shortening and active‐layer thinning of 1.6 cm y−1. However, these trends need to be taken carefully because all were non‐significant at p 〈 0.05. The Stefan and Kudryavtsev models reproduced the active‐layer thickness with mean absolute errors of 2.6 cm (5.0%) and 3.4 cm (5.9%), respectively, which is better than in most previous studies, making them promising tools for active‐layer modeling over Antarctica.

Beschreibung: Front cover: The cover image is based on the Original Article The herbivorous fish family Kyphosidae (Teleostei: Perciformes) represents a recent radiation from higher latitudes by Steen Knudsen et al., https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13634.

Beschreibung: Abstract Aim The geographic range and ecological niche of species are widely used concepts in ecology, evolution and conservation and many modelling approaches have been developed to quantify each. Niche and distribution modelling methods require a litany of design choices; differences among subdisciplines have created communication barriers that increase isolation of scientific advances. As a result, understanding and reproducing the work of others is difficult, if not impossible. It is often challenging to evaluate whether a model has been built appropriately for its intended application or subsequent reuse. Here, we propose a standardized model metadata framework that enables researchers to understand and evaluate modelling decisions while making models fully citable and reproducible. Such reproducibility is critical for both scientific and policy reports, while international standardization enables better comparison between different scenarios and research groups. Innovation Range modelling metadata (RMMS) address three challenges: they (a) are designed for convenience to encourage use, (b) accommodate a wide variety of applications, and (c) are extensible to allow the research community to steer them as needed. RMMS are based on a metadata dictionary that specifies a hierarchical structure to catalogue different aspects of the range modelling process. The dictionary balances a constrained, minimalist vocabulary to improve standardization with flexibility for users to modify and extend. To facilitate use, we have developed an R package, rangeModelMetaData, to build templates, automatically fill values from common modelling objects, check for inconsistencies with standards, and suggest values. Main conclusions Range Modelling Metadata tools foster cross‐disciplinary advances in biogeography, conservation and allied disciplines by improving evaluation, model sharing, model searching, comparisons and reproducibility among studies. Our initially proposed standards here are designed to be modified and extended to evolve with research trends and needs.

Beschreibung: Abstract Aim To test two prominent, alternate hypotheses that provide explanations for the great accumulation of endemic species in the Kimberley bioregion in north‐western Australia, using an extensively sampled, region wide phylogeny of northern Australia's most species‐rich freshwater fish family, Terapontidae. Specifically, we test whether the Kimberley may act as (1) a “museum” accumulating taxa and endemic species over time or (2) a “cradle” of more recent diversification and neoendemism. Location The Australian monsoonal tropics. Taxon Grunters (Terapontidae). Methods We obtained a robust and well‐supported Bayesian phylogeny for the family using DNA sequences from mtDNA and nuclear gene regions. We performed molecular phylogenetic analyses using species tree methods including molecular dating analysis, ancestral range reconstruction and diversification analysis. Results Based on our phylogeny, the combined molecular clock estimates and likelihood‐based historical‐biogeographic reconstructions suggest that terapontids recently transitioned into the Kimberley from the east during the late‐Miocene. We found that 80% of Kimberley terapontids diversified within the Kimberley in the last 3 Ma. Furthermore, diversification analyses identified a single significant shift in diversification rates ~1.4 Ma that corresponds with a change in global climate midway through the Pleistocene that was predominantly driven by speciation in the Kimberley. Main conclusions The weight of evidence suggests that the Kimberley has been a “cradle” of evolution for Terapontidae, rather than a “museum”. Our analysis provides strong evidence for a geologically recent transition of terapontids into the Kimberley from regions to the east during the late‐Miocene followed by a significant increase in speciation rates during the Pleistocene, driven by speciation in the Kimberley. The results provide important insight into the evolutionary and biogeographical processes that have shaped the regions unique biota, which will inform land managers working to protect and conserve both species and the processes responsible for generating and sustaining them.

Beschreibung: Abstract Aim Predicting future changes in species richness in response to climate change is one of the key challenges in biogeography and conservation ecology. Stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) are a commonly used tool to predict current and future species richness. Macroecological models (MEMs), regression models with species richness as response variable, are a less computationally intensive alternative to S‐SDMs. Here, we aim to compare the results of two model types (S‐SDMS and MEMs), for the first time for more than 14,000 species across multiple taxa globally, and to trace the uncertainty in future predictions back to the input data and modelling approach used. Location Global land, excluding Antarctica. Taxon Amphibians, birds and mammals. Methods We fitted S‐SDMs and MEMs using a consistent set of bioclimatic variables and model algorithms and conducted species richness predictions under current and future conditions. For the latter, we used four general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Predicted species richness was compared between S‐SDMs and MEMs and for current conditions also to extent‐of‐occurrence (EOO) species richness patterns. For future predictions, we quantified the variance in predicted species richness patterns explained by the choice of model type, model algorithm and GCM using hierarchical cluster analysis and variance partitioning. Results Under current conditions, species richness predictions from MEMs and S‐SDMs were strongly correlated with EOO‐based species richness. However, both model types over‐predicted areas with low and under‐predicted areas with high species richness. Outputs from MEMs and S‐SDMs were also highly correlated among each other under current and future conditions. The variance between future predictions was mostly explained by model type. Main conclusions Both model types were able to reproduce EOO‐based patterns in global terrestrial vertebrate richness, but produce less collinear predictions of future species richness. Model type by far contributes to most of the variation in the different future species richness predictions, indicating that the two model types should not be used interchangeably. Nevertheless, both model types have their justification, as MEMs can also include species with a restricted range, whereas S‐SDMs are useful for looking at potential species‐specific responses.

Beschreibung: 〈sec〉〈st〉Electron energy bands of crystalline solids generically exhibit degeneracies called band-structure nodes. Here, we introduce non-Abelian topological charges that characterize line nodes inside the momentum space of〈/st〉〈p〉〈b〉-symmetric crystalline metals with weak spin-orbit coupling. We show that these are quaternion charges, similar to those describing disclinations in biaxial nematics. Starting from two-band considerations, we develop the complete many-band description of nodes in the presence of 〈/b〉 〈b〉and mirror symmetries, which allows us to investigate the topological stability of nodal chains in metals. The non-Abelian charges put strict constraints on the possible nodal line configurations. Our analysis goes beyond the standard approach to band topology, and implies the existence of 1D topological phases not present in existing classifications.〈/b〉〈/p〉〈/sec〉

Beschreibung: The Arctic is a hotspot for climate change, which is affecting populations in complex ways since it impacts the entire Arctic food web. In this Arctic goose population, rapid climate change benefits early stages of reproduction through advanced snow melt and vegetation green‐up, but this is counteracted by changes at other trophic levels, also caused by climate change. Processes at non‐breeding sites affect goose reproduction and survival directly and via carryover effects. This highlights the importance of holistic approaches, studying all migratory stages, when predicting climate change effects. These counteracting effects contributed to stabilizing population growth at the Arctic breeding grounds. Abstract Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.

Beschreibung: Abstract The dynamic system response curve (DSRC) method has been shown to effectively use error feedback correction to obtain updated areal estimates of mean rainfall and thereby improve the accuracy of real‐time flood forecasts. In this study, we address two main shortcomings of the existing method. First, ridge estimation is used to deal with ill‐conditioning of the normal equation coefficient matrix when the method is applied to small basins, or when the length of updating rainfall series is short. Second, the effects of spatial heterogeneity of rainfall on rainfall error estimates are accounted for using a simple index. The improved performance of the method is demonstrated using both synthetic and real data studies. For smaller basins with relatively homogeneous spatial distributions of rainfall, the use of ridge regression provides more accurate and robust results. For larger‐scale basins with significant spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, spatial rainfall error updating provides significant improvements. Overall, combining the two strategies results in the best performance for all cases, with the effects of ridge estimation and spatially distributed updating complementing each other.

Beschreibung: Abstract Understanding how spatial variability in stream discharge and water chemistry decrease with increasing catchment area is required to improve our ability to predict hydrological and biogeochemical processes in ungauged basins. We investigated differences in this decrease of variability with increasing catchment area among catchments, and among specific discharge (Qs) and water chemistry parameters. We defined the slope of the decrease in the variability with increasing catchment area as the rate of decrease in the standard deviation and coefficient of variation (δSD and δCV, respectively), both of which are −0.5 for the simple mixing of random variables (random mixing). All δSD and δCV values of Qs were less than −0.5, while those of most water chemistry values were greater than −0.5, indicating that with increased catchment area the spatial variability of Qs decreased more steeply than for random mixing, while for water chemistry they decreased less steeply. δSD and δCV had linear relationships with both the spatial dissimilarity index and relative changes in parameters’ mean values with increasing catchment area. It suggested that differences in δSD or δCV for Qs and water chemistry can be explained by the different spatial structures, where dissimilar values of Qs and similar values of water chemistry, respectively, are located close together in space. Differences in δSD and δCV according to Qs and water chemistry should significantly affect the determination of representative elementary area (REA), and therefore need to be considered when predicting REA from spatial variability of low‐order streams.

Beschreibung: Abstract The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) has been proved as a useful algorithm to merge coarse resolution Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with hydrologic model results. However, in order for the EnKF to perform optimally a correct forecast error covariance is needed. The EnKF estimates this error covariance through an ensemble of model simulations with perturbed forcing data. Consequently a correct specification of perturbation magnitude is essential for the EnKF to work optimally. To this end, an Adaptive EnKF (AEnKF), a variant of the EnKF with an additional component that dynamically detects and corrects error misspecifications during the filtering process, has been applied. Due to the low spatial and temporal resolution of GRACE data, the efficiency of this method could be different than for other hydrologic applications. Therefore, instead of spatially or temporally averaging the internal diagnostic (normalized innovations) to detect the misspecifications, spatiotemporal averaging was used. First, sensitivity of the estimation accuracy to the degree of error in forcing perturbations was investigated. Second, efficiency of the AEnKF for GRACE assimilation was explored using two synthetic and one real data experiment. Results show that there is considerable benefit in using this method to estimate the forcing error magnitude, and that the AEnKF can efficiently estimate this magnitude.

Beschreibung: Abstract The scarcity of groundwater storage change data at the global scale hinders our ability to monitor groundwater resources effectively. In this study, we assimilate a state‐of‐the‐art terrestrial water storage (TWS) product derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations into NASA's Catchment land surface model (CLSM) at the global scale, with the goal of generating groundwater storage time series that are useful for drought monitoring and other applications. Evaluation using in situ data from nearly 4,000 wells shows that GRACE data assimilation improves the simulation of groundwater, with estimation errors reduced by 36% and 10% and correlation improved by 16% and 22% at the regional and point scales, respectively. The biggest improvements are observed in regions with large interannual variability in precipitation, where simulated groundwater responds too strongly to changes in atmospheric forcing. The positive impacts of GRACE data assimilation are further demonstrated using observed low flow data. CLSM and GRACE data assimilation performance is also examined across different permeability categories. The evaluation reveals that GRACE data assimilation fails to compensate for the lack of a groundwater withdrawal scheme in CLSM when it comes to simulating realistic groundwater variations in regions with intensive groundwater abstraction. CLSM simulated groundwater correlates strongly with 12‐month precipitation anomalies in low and mid‐latitude areas. A groundwater drought indicator based on GRACE data assimilation generally agrees with other regional‐scale drought indicators, with discrepancies mainly in their estimated drought severity.

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Investigating slow earthquake activity in subduction zones provides insight into the slip behavior of megathrusts, which can provide important clues about the rupture extent of future great earthquakes. Using the S-net ocean-bottom seismograph network along the Japan Trench, we mapped a detailed distribution of tectonic tremors, which coincided with very-low-frequency earthquakes and a slow slip event. Compiling these and other related observations, including repeating earthquakes and earthquake swarms, we found that the slow earthquake distribution is complementary to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake rupture. We used our observations to divide the megathrust in the Japan Trench into three along-strike segments characterized by different slip behaviors. We found that the rupture of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, which nucleated in the central segment, was terminated by the two adjacent segments.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Stimuli-responsive materials activated by biological signals play an increasingly important role in biotechnology applications. We exploit the programmability of CRISPR-associated nucleases to actuate hydrogels containing DNA as a structural element or as an anchor for pendant groups. After activation by guide RNA–defined inputs, Cas12a cleaves DNA in the gels, thereby converting biological information into changes in material properties. We report four applications: (i) branched poly(ethylene glycol) hydrogels releasing DNA-anchored compounds, (ii) degradable polyacrylamide-DNA hydrogels encapsulating nanoparticles and live cells, (iii) conductive carbon-black–DNA hydrogels acting as degradable electrical fuses, and (iv) a polyacrylamide-DNA hydrogel operating as a fluidic valve with an electrical readout for remote signaling. These materials allow for a range of in vitro applications in tissue engineering, bioelectronics, and diagnostics.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Understanding genomic variation and population structure of 〈i〉Plasmodium falciparum〈/i〉 across Africa is necessary to sustain progress toward malaria elimination. Genome clustering of 2263 〈i〉P. falciparum〈/i〉 isolates from 24 malaria-endemic settings in 15 African countries identified major western, central, and eastern ancestries, plus a highly divergent Ethiopian population. Ancestry aligned to these regional blocs, overlapping with both the parasite’s origin and with historical human migration. The parasite populations are interbred and shared genomic haplotypes, especially across drug resistance loci, which showed the strongest recent identity-by-descent between populations. A recent signature of selection on chromosome 12 with candidate resistance loci against artemisinin derivatives was evident in Ghana and Malawi. Such selection and the emerging substructure may affect treatment-based intervention strategies against 〈i〉P. falciparum〈/i〉 malaria.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: Abstract Plant functional traits provide a link in process‐based vegetation models between plant‐level physiology and ecosystem‐level responses. Recent advances in physiological understanding and computational efficiency have allowed for the incorporation of plant hydraulic processes in large‐scale vegetation models. However, a more mechanistic representation of water limitation that determines ecosystem responses to plant water stress necessitates a re‐evaluation of trait‐based constraints for plant carbon allocation, particularly allocation to leaf area. In this review, we examine model representations of plant allocation to leaves, which is often empirically set by plant functional type‐specific allometric relationships. We analyze the evolution of the representation of leaf allocation in models of different scales and complexities. We show the impacts of leaf allocation strategy on plant carbon uptake in the context of recent advancements in modeling hydraulic processes. Finally, we posit that deriving allometry from first principles using mechanistic hydraulic processes is possible and should become standard practice, rather than using prescribed allometries. The representation of allocation as an emergent property of scarce resource constraints is likely to be critical to representing how global change processes impact future ecosystem dynamics and carbon fluxes and may reduce the number of poorly constrained parameters in vegetation models.

Beschreibung: Abstract Groundwater transit time is an essential hydrologic metric for groundwater resources management. However, especially in tropical environments studies on the transit time distribution (TTD) of groundwater infiltration and its corresponding mean transit time (mTT) have been extremely limited due to data sparsity. In this study, we primarily use stable isotopes to examine the TTDs and their mTTs of both vertical and horizontal infiltration at a riverbank infiltration area in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), representative of the tropical climate in Asian Monsoon regions. Precipitation, river water, groundwater, and local ponding surface water were sampled for three to nine years and analyzed for stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H), providing a unique data set of stable isotope records for a tropical region. We quantified the contribution that the two sources contributed to the local shallow groundwater by a novel concept of two‐component lumped parameter models (LPMs) that are solved using δ18O records. The study illustrates that two‐component LPMs, in conjunction with hydrological and isotopic measurements, are able to identify subsurface flow conditions and water mixing at riverbank infiltration systems. However, the predictive skill and the reliability of the models decrease for locations farther from the river, where recharge by precipitation dominates, and a low‐permeable aquitard layer above the highly permeable aquifer is present. This specific setting impairs the identifiability of model parameters. For river infiltration short mTTs (〈40 weeks) were determined for sites closer to the river (〈200 m), whereas for the precipitation infiltration the mTTs were longer (〉80 weeks) and independent of the distance to the river. The results not only enhance the understanding of the groundwater recharge dynamics in the VMD but also suggest that the highly complex mechanisms of surface‐groundwater interaction can be conceptualized by exploiting two‐component LPMs in general. The model concept could thus be a powerful tool for better understanding both the hydrological functioning of mixing processes and the movement of different water components in riverbank infiltration systems.

Beschreibung: Abstract Physically‐based models are useful frameworks for testing intervention strategies designed to reduce elevated sediment loads in agricultural catchments. Evaluating the success of these strategies depends on model accuracy, generally established by a calibration and evaluation process. In this contribution, the physically‐based SHETRAN model was assessed in two similar UK agricultural catchments. The model was calibrated on the Blackwater catchment (18 km2) and evaluated in the adjacent Kit Brook catchment (22 km2) using 4‐years of 15‐minute discharge and suspended sediment flux data. Model sensitivity to changes in single and multiple combinations of parameters as well as sensitivity to changes in Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution were assessed. Model flow performance was reasonably accurate; with a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.78 in Blackwater and 0.60 in Kit Brook. In terms of event prediction, the mean of the absolute percentage of difference (μAbsdiff) between measured and simulated flow volume (Qv), peak discharge (Qp), sediment yield (Sy) and peak sediment flux (Sp) showed larger values in Kit Brook (48% [Qv], 66% [Qp], 298% [Sy], 438% [Sp]) compared to the Blackwater catchment (30% [Qv], 41% [Qp], 106% [Sy], 86% [Sp]). Results indicate that SHETRAN can produce reasonable flow prediction but performs less well in estimation of sediment flux, despite reasonably similar hydro‐sedimentary behaviour between catchments. The sensitivity index showed flow volume sensitive to saturated hydraulic conductivity and peak discharge to the Strickler coefficient; sediment yield was sensitive to the overland flow erodibility coefficient and peak sediment flux to raindrop/leaf soil erodibility coefficient. The multi‐parameter sensitivity analysis showed that different combinations of parameters produced similar model responses. Model sensitivity to grid resolution presented similar flow volumes for different DEM resolutions, whereas event peak and duration (for both flow and sediment flux) were highly sensitive to changes in grid size.

Beschreibung: Abstract Warming permafrost on a global scale is projected to have significant impacts on engineering, hydrology and environmental quality. Greater warming trends are predicted on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), but most models for mountain permafrost have not considered the effects of water phase change and the state of deep permafrost due to a lack of detailed information. To better understand historical and future permafrost change based on in situ monitoring and field investigations, a numerical heat conduction permafrost model was introduced which differentiated the frozen and thawed state of soil, and considered unfrozen water content in frozen soil, distribution of ground ice and geothermal heat flow. Simulations were conducted at two sites with validation by long‐term monitoring of ground temperature data. After forcing with reconstructed historical ground surface temperature series starting from 1966, the model predicted permafrost changes until 2100 under different RCP scenarios. The results indicate a slow thermal response of permafrost to climate warming at the two investigated sites. Even under the most radical warming scenario (RCP8.5), deepening of the permafrost table is not obvious before 2040. At both sites, the model indicates that shallow permafrost may disappear but deep permafrost may persist by 2100. Moreover, the simulation shows that the degradation modes may differ between zones of discontinuous and continuous permafrost. The main degradation mode of the site in the discontinuous zone appears to be upward thawing from the permafrost base, while that of the site in the continuous zone is downward thawing at the permafrost table with little change at the permafrost base.

Beschreibung: Abstract High‐frequency stable isotope data are useful for validating atmospheric moisture circulation models and provide improved understanding of the mechanisms controlling isotopic compositions in tropical rainfall. Here we present a near‐continuous 6‐month record of O‐ and H‐isotope compositions in both water vapour and daily rainfall from Northeast Australia measured by laser spectroscopy. The data set spans both Wet and Dry Seasons to help address a significant data and knowledge gap in the southern hemisphere tropics. We interpret the isotopic records for water vapour and rainfall in the context of contemporaneous meteorological observations. Surface air moisture provided near‐continuous tracking of the links between isotopic variations and meteorological events on local to regional spatial scales. Power spectrum analysis of the isotopic variation showed a range of significant periodicities, from hourly to monthly scales and cross‐wavelet analysis identified significant regions of common power for hourly‐averaged water vapour isotopic composition and relative humidity, wind direction and solar radiation. Relative humidity had the greatest sub‐diurnal influence on isotopic composition. On longer timescales (weeks to months) isotope variability was strongly correlated with both wind direction and relative humidity. The high‐frequency records showed diurnal isotopic variations in O‐ and H‐isotope compositions due to local dew formation and, for deuterium excess, as a result of evapotranspiration. Several significant negative isotope anomalies on a daily scale were associated with the activity of regional mesoscale convective systems and the occurrence of two tropical cyclones. Calculated air parcel back‐trajectories identified the predominant moisture transport paths from the Southwest Pacific Ocean while moisture transport from northerly directions occurred mainly during the Wet Season monsoonal air flow. Water vapour isotope compositions reflected the same meteorological events as recorded in rainfall isotopes but provided much more detailed and continuous information on atmospheric moisture cycling than the intermittent isotopic record provided by rainfall. Improved global coverage of stable isotope data for atmospheric water vapour is likely to improve simulations of future changes to climate drivers of the hydrological cycle.

Beschreibung: Journal of Biogeography, Volume 46, Issue 9, Page ii-iv, September 2019.

Beschreibung: Abstract Aim Major efforts have been devoted to understanding the geographic pattern of sexual size dimorphism (SSD). Rensch's rule posits that SSD increases with body size in male‐biased SSD species and decreases with body size in female‐biased SSD species. This pattern, and its inverse, have been mainly explored at the interspecific level, whereas research at the intraspecific level has been largely neglected. Here, we test whether the allometric pattern of SSD in an urodele amphibian conforms to Rensch's rule and evaluate the relative role of four potential mechanisms: sexual selection, fecundity selection, density‐dependent resource availability and differential plasticity. Location Iberian Peninsula. Taxon Lissotriton boscai (Amphibia: Caudata: Salamandridae). Methods We used original (field‐based) and published data on body size, courtship behaviour and fecundity parameters and a suite of climatic, ecological and genetic (mitochondrial and nuclear markers) predictors to assess these hypotheses. Results The results showed that SSD increased with increasing female mean body size, supporting the inverse Rensch's rule pattern. Primary productivity‐related variables and female density were among the most relevant ecological predictors of SSD after accounting for genetic structure and capture date. Main conclusions This study reveals that the interplay between the density‐dependent resource availability hypothesis and the differential plasticity hypothesis explains the inverse Rensch's rule. We discuss how combining biogeographical and experimental approaches can provide alternative interpretations to the classical sexual and fecundity selection hypotheses on the interpopulation variation in SSD.

Beschreibung: Abstract A multitude of disturbance agents, such as wildfires, land use, and climate‐driven expansion of woody shrubs, are transforming the distribution of plant functional types across Arctic‐Boreal ecosystems, which has significant implications for interactions and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and climate in the northern high‐latitudes. However, because the spatial resolution of existing land cover data sets is too coarse, large‐scale land cover changes in the Arctic‐Boreal region (ABR) have been poorly characterized. Here we use 31 years (1984‐2014) of moderate spatial resolution (30 m) satellite imagery over a region spanning 4.7 x 106 km2 in Alaska and northwestern Canada to characterize regional‐scale ABR land cover changes. We find that 13.6 ± 1.3 % of the domain has changed, primarily via two major modes of transformation: (1) simultaneous disturbance‐driven decreases in Evergreen Forest area (‐14.7 ± 3.0 % relative to 1984) and increases in Deciduous Forest area (+14.8 ± 5.2 %) in the Boreal biome; and (2) climate‐driven expansion of Herbaceous and Shrub vegetation (+7.4 ± 2.0 %) in the Arctic biome. By using time series of 30 m imagery, we characterize dynamics in forest and shrub cover occurring at relatively short spatial scales (hundreds of m) due to fires, harvest, and climate‐induced growth that are not observable in coarse spatial resolution (e.g. 500 m or greater pixel size) imagery. Wildfires caused most of Evergreen Forest Loss and Evergreen Forest Gain and substantial areas of Deciduous Forest Gain. Extensive shifts in the distribution of plant functional types at multiple spatial scales are consistent with observations of increased atmospheric CO2 seasonality and ecosystem productivity at northern high latitudes and signal continental‐scale shifts in the structure and function of high northern‐latitude ecosystems in response to climate change.

Beschreibung: 〈p〉In insects, rapidly evolving primary sex-determining signals are transduced by a conserved regulatory module controlling sexual differentiation. In the agricultural pest 〈i〉Ceratitis capitata〈/i〉 (Mediterranean fruit fly, Medfly) we identified a Y-linked gene, 〈i〉Maleness-on the-Y〈/i〉 (〈i〉MoY〈/i〉), encoding a small protein that is necessary and sufficient for male development. Silencing or disruption of 〈i〉MoY〈/i〉 in XY embryos causes feminization whereas overexpression of 〈i〉MoY〈/i〉 in XX embryos induces masculinization. Crosses between transformed XY females and XX males give rise to males and females, indicating that a Y chromosome can be transmitted by XY females. 〈i〉MoY〈/i〉 is Y-linked and functionally conserved in other species of the Tephritidae family, highlighting its potential to serve as a tool for developing more effective control strategies against these major agricultural insect pests.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: Abstract Nutrient availability influences virtually every aspect of an ecosystem, and is a critical modifier of ecosystem responses to global change. Although this crucial role of nutrient availability in regulating ecosystem structure and functioning has been widely acknowledged, nutrients are still often neglected in observational and experimental synthesis studies due to difficulties in comparing the nutrient status across sites. In the current study, we explain different nutrient‐related concepts and discuss the potential of soil‐, plant‐ and remote sensing‐based metrics to compare the nutrient status across space. Based on our review and additional analyses on a dataset of European, managed temperate and boreal forests (ICP Forests dataset), we conclude that the use of plant‐ and remote sensing‐based metrics that rely on tissue stoichiometry is limited due to their strong dependence on species identity. The potential use of other plant‐based metrics such as Ellenberg indicator values and plant‐functional traits is also discussed. We conclude from our analyses and review that soil‐based metrics have the highest potential for successful inter‐site comparison of the nutrient status. As an example, we used and adjusted a soil‐based metric, previously developed for conifer forests across Sweden, against the same ICP Forests data. We suggest that this adjusted and further adaptable metric, which included the organic carbon concentration (SOC) in the upper 20 cm of the soil (including the organic fermentation‐humus (FH) layer), the C:N ratio and pHCaCl2 of the FH layer, can be used as a complementary tool along with other indicators of nutrient availability, to compare the background nutrient status across temperate and boreal forests dominated by spruce, pine or beech. Future collection and provision of harmonized soil data from observational and experimental sites is crucial for further testing and adjusting the metric.

Beschreibung: Abstract The role of wave forcing on the main hydro‐morphological dynamics evolving in the shallow waters of the nearshore and at river mouths is analyzed. Focus is mainly on the cross‐shore dynamics that evolve over mildly sloping barred, dissipative sandy beaches from the storm up to the yearly time scale, at most. Local and nonlocal mechanisms as well as connections across three main inter‐related subsystems of the nearshore ‐ the region of generation and evolution of nearshore bars, river mouths and the swash zone ‐ are analyzed. The beach slope is a major controlling parameter for all nearshore dynamics. A local mechanism that must be properly described for a suitable representation of wave‐forced dynamics of all such three subsystems is the proper correlation between orbital velocity and sediment concentration in the bottom boundary layer; while specific dynamics are the wave‐current interaction and bar generation at river mouths and the sediment presuspension at the swash zone. Fundamental nonlocal mechanisms are both Infragravity (IG) waves and large‐scale horizontal vortices (i.e. with vertical axes), both influencing the hydrodynamics, the sediment transport and the seabed morphology across the whole nearshore. Major connections across the three subsystems are the upriver propagation of IG waves generated by breaking sea waves and swash‐swash interactions, the interplay between the swash zone and along‐river‐flank sediment transport and the evolution of nearshore sand bars.

Beschreibung: Abstract The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Survey (NASS) collects and publishes crop growth status and soil moisture conditions in major US agricultural regions. The operationally produced weekly reports are based on survey information. The surveys are based on visual assessments and – in the case of soil moisture – report soil moisture levels in one of four categories (Very Short, Short, Adequate and Surplus). In this study, we show that these reports have remarkable correspondence with the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level‐4 Soil Moisture (L4SM) product. This consistency allows for combining the two different types of data to produce a value‐added assessment, which enables cropland soil moisture mapping and state‐level statistics. Moreover, it enables daily assessment rather than weekly. In this study classification thresholds are derived for L4SM by mapping cumulative distribution functions of L4SM surface and root‐zone SM to the categorical NASS SM conditions. The results show that, year‐over‐year, the SMAP cumulative SM distributions are consistent with the NASS SM conditions and, furthermore, that the temporal evolution of the SMAP‐derived thresholds is consistent with the seasonal crop growth cycles from year to year. The results signify that the SMAP SM retrievals are relatable to SM estimation conducted in agricultural crop land by land managers and farmers, which underlines the general applicability of the SMAP data.

Beschreibung: Abstract Repeated measures experiments can be conducted to empirically estimate the uncertainty of a streamgauging method, such as the widespread moving‐boat acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) approach. Previous ADCP repeated measures experiments, a.k.a. inter‐laboratory comparisons, provided a credible range of uncertainty estimates reflecting the quality of the site conditions. However, the method, which is a one‐way analysis of variance (ANOVA), only addresses the uncertainty of one lumped factor that combines several distinct factors: instrument, operator, procedure and cross‐section effects. To decompose the uncertainty of ADCP streamflow measurements due to cross‐section selection and team effects, a large repeated measures experiment has been conducted in the Taurion River (France). The experiment design was crossed and balanced, with two sets of 24 teams circulated over two sets of 12 cross‐sections. A constant flow rate was released from a dam, located immediately upstream of the experimental site. Prior to the statistical analysis, a data quality review was performed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) QRev software to clean the dataset from avoidable errors and to homogenize the discharge computations. A two‐way ANOVA was applied to quantify the cross‐section effect, the team effect and their interaction, which was found to dominate the pure cross‐section effect. It was then possible to predict the average uncertainty of multiple‐transect ADCP discharge measurements, depending on the number of teams, cross‐sections and repeated transects included in the discharge average. The method opens interesting avenues for documenting difficult‐to‐estimate uncertainty sources of streamgauging techniques in other measuring conditions, especially the most adverse ones.

Beschreibung: Abstract Snow albedo is a dominant control on snowmelt in many parts of the world. An empirical albedo decay equation, developed over 60 years ago, is still used in snowmelt models. Several empirical snow albedo models developed since show wide spread in results. Remotely sensed snow albedos have been used in a few studies, but validations are scarce because of the difficulty in making accurate in situ measurements. Reconstruction of snow water equivalent (SWE), where the snowpack is built in reverse, is especially sensitive to albedo. We present two new contributions: (1) an updated albedo model where grain size and light absorbing particle (LAP) content are solved for simultaneously; (2) multiyear comparisons of remotely sensed and in situ albedo measurements from three high‐altitude sites in the western U.S. Our remotely sensed albedos show 4 to 6% RMSE and negligible bias. In comparison, empirical albedo decay models, which require extensive in situ measurements, show RMSE values of 7 to 17% with biases of ‐6 to ‐14%. We examine the sensitivity of SWE reconstructions to albedo error at two sites. With no simulated error in albedo, reconstructed SWE had MAE values of 7 to 13% and 5‐6% bias. The accuracy actually improved with some simulated added error, likely because of a fundamental bias in the reconstruction approach. Conversely, the best age‐based decay model showed an 18‐20% MAE and bias in reconstructed SWE. We conclude that remotely sensed albedos where available are superior to age‐based approaches in all aspects except simplicity.

Beschreibung: Abstract Describing the space‐time variability of hydrologic extremes in relation to climate is important for scientific and operational purposes. Many studies demonstrated the role of large‐scale modes of climate variability such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), amongst many others. Climate indices have hence frequently been used as predictors in probabilistic models describing hydrologic extremes. However, standard climate indices such as ENSO/NAO are poor predictors in some regions. Consequently, this paper describes an innovative method to avoid relying on standard climate indices, based on the following idea: the relevant climate indices are effectively unknown (they are hidden), and they should therefore be estimated directly from hydrologic data. In statistical terms, this corresponds to a Bayesian hierarchical model describing extreme occurrences, with hidden climate indices treated as latent variables. This approach is illustrated using three case studies. A synthetic case study first shows that identifying hidden climate indices from occurrence data alone is feasible. A second case study using flood occurrences at 42 East‐Australian sites confirms that the model correctly identifies their ENSO‐related climate driver. The third case study is based on 207 sites in France, where standard climate indices poorly predict flood occurrence. The hidden climate indices model yields a reliable description of flood occurrences, in particular their clustering in space and their large interannual variability. Moreover, some hidden climate indices are linked with specific patterns in atmospheric variables, making them interpretable in terms of climate variability and opening the way for predictive applications.

Beschreibung: Abstract Phaeodaria, which comprise one group of large, single‐celled eukaryotic zooplankton, have been largely ignored by past marine biological studies because Phaeodaria and their delicate skeletons are liable to collapse. As a result, collection and quantification of specimens are difficult, and seasonal changes of phaeodarian abundance have not been thoroughly studied. The transport of biogenic elements by sinking phaeodarians has been estimated for only a few representative species. Sinking particles 〉1 mm in size and swimmers have traditionally been excluded when estimating sinking particle fluxes. The focus of this study is the large number of phaeodarians among the 〉1 mm sinking particles collected in the western North Pacific from June 2014 to July 2015. Careful sorting by microscopic examination and chemical analyses revealed that phaeodarians accounted for up to about 10% of the organic carbon in all sinking particles and accounted for a mean of 33% of the organic carbon in the 〉1 mm sinking particles. The high standing stocks of phaeodarians at depths of 150–1000 m in the mesopelagic twilight zone suggested that particles sinking from the euphotic zone as aggregates and fecal pellets can be efficiently ex to the deep sea by the ballasting effect of large phaeodarian particles rich in organic carbon.

Beschreibung: Hydrological Processes, Volume 33, Issue 19, Page 2499-2501, 15 September 2019.

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Membraneless organelles involved in RNA processing are biomolecular condensates assembled by phase separation. Despite the important role of intrinsically disordered protein regions (IDRs), the specific interactions underlying IDR phase separation and its functional consequences remain elusive. To address these questions, we used minimal condensates formed from the C-terminal disordered regions of two interacting translational regulators, FMRP and CAPRIN1. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of FMRP-CAPRIN1 condensates revealed interactions involving arginine-rich and aromatic-rich regions. We found that different FMRP serine/threonine and CAPRIN1 tyrosine phosphorylation patterns control phase separation propensity with RNA, including subcompartmentalization, and tune deadenylation and translation rates in vitro. The resulting evidence for residue-specific interactions underlying co–phase separation, phosphorylation-modulated condensate architecture, and enzymatic activity within condensates has implications for how the integration of signaling pathways controls RNA processing and translation.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉SARM1 (sterile alpha and TIR motif containing 1) is responsible for depletion of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide in its oxidized form (NAD〈sup〉+〈/sup〉) during Wallerian degeneration associated with neuropathies. Plant nucleotide-binding leucine-rich repeat (NLR) immune receptors recognize pathogen effector proteins and trigger localized cell death to restrict pathogen infection. Both processes depend on closely related Toll/interleukin-1 receptor (TIR) domains in these proteins, which, as we show, feature self-association–dependent NAD〈sup〉+〈/sup〉 cleavage activity associated with cell death signaling. We further show that SARM1 SAM (sterile alpha motif) domains form an octamer essential for axon degeneration that contributes to TIR domain enzymatic activity. The crystal structures of ribose and NADP〈sup〉+〈/sup〉 (the oxidized form of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate) complexes of SARM1 and plant NLR RUN1 TIR domains, respectively, reveal a conserved substrate binding site. NAD〈sup〉+〈/sup〉 cleavage by TIR domains is therefore a conserved feature of animal and plant cell death signaling pathways.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉The near-Earth asteroid (162173) Ryugu is a 900-m-diameter dark object expected to contain primordial material from the solar nebula. The Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout (MASCOT) landed on Ryugu’s surface on 3 October 2018. We present images from the MASCOT camera (MASCam) taken during the descent and while on the surface. The surface is covered by decimeter- to meter-sized rocks, with no deposits of fine-grained material. Rocks appear either bright, with smooth faces and sharp edges, or dark, with a cauliflower-like, crumbly surface. Close-up images of a rock of the latter type reveal a dark matrix with small, bright, spectrally different inclusions, implying that it did not experience extensive aqueous alteration. The inclusions appear similar to those in carbonaceous chondrite meteorites.〈/p〉

Beschreibung: 〈p〉Van Meter 〈i〉et al〈/i〉. (Reports, 27 April 2018, p. 427) warn that achieving nitrogen reduction goals in the Gulf of Mexico will take decades as a result of legacy nitrogen effects. We discuss limitations of the modeling approach and demonstrate that legacy effects ranging from a few years to decades are equally consistent with observations. The presented time scales for system recovery are therefore highly uncertain.〈/p〉