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  • climate change  (5)
  • Frontiers Media  (4)
  • Wiley  (1)
  • 2020-2023  (5)
  • 1945-1949
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Jenouvrier, S., Long, M. C., Coste, C. F. D., Holland, M., Gamelon, M., Yoccoz, N., & Saether, B.-E. Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories. Global Change Biology, 28, (2022): 2236– 2258, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16041.
    Description: Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics (ToEpop). We identify the dependence of (ToEpop)on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on (ToEpop). We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.
    Description: We acknowledge the support of NASA 80NSSC20K1289 to SJ, ML, and MH; NSF OPP 1744794 to SJ and NSF OPP 2037561 to SJ and MH.
    Keywords: climate change ; emperor penguin ; life histories ; population trend ; population variability ; signal to noise ; time of emergence
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Goldsmit, J., Schlegel, R. W., Filbee-Dexter, K., MacGregor, K. A., Johnson, L. E., Mundy, C. J., Savoie, A. M., McKindsey, C. W., Howland, K. L., & Archambault, P. Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover. Frontiers in Marine Science, 18, (2021): 742209. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209
    Description: Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems through the expansion and contraction of species’ ranges. Sea ice loss and warming temperatures are expected to expand habitat availability for macroalgae along long stretches of Arctic coastlines. To better understand the current distribution of kelp forests in the Eastern Canadian Arctic, kelps were sampled along the coasts for species identifications and percent cover. The sampling effort was supplemented with occurrence records from global biodiversity databases, searches in the literature, and museum records. Environmental information and occurrence records were used to develop ensemble models for predicting habitat suitability and a Random Forest model to predict kelp cover for the dominant kelp species in the region – Agarum clathratum, Alaria esculenta, and Laminariaceae species (Laminaria solidungula and Saccharina latissima). Ice thickness, sea temperature and salinity explained the highest percentage of kelp distribution. Both modeling approaches showed that the current extent of arctic kelps is potentially much greater than the available records suggest. These modeling approaches were projected into the future using predicted environmental data for 2050 and 2100 based on the most extreme emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The models agreed that predicted distribution of kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic is likely to expand to more northern locations under future emissions scenarios, with the exception of the endemic arctic kelp L. solidungula, which is more likely to lose a significant proportion of suitable habitat. However, there were differences among species regarding predicted cover for both current and future projections. Notwithstanding model-specific variation, it is evident that kelps are widespread throughout the area and likely contribute significantly to the functioning of current Arctic ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of kelp in Arctic ecosystems and the underestimation of their potential distribution there.
    Description: This work was supported by ArcticNet (P101 ArcticKelp), Fisheries and Oceans Canada Arctic Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Arctic Science and Aquatic Invasive Species Monitoring and Research Funds, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), NRCan Polar Continental Shelf Program Support, Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN), the Nunavut Marine Region Wildlife Management Board (NWMB), Quebec-Ocean, and the Ocean Frontier Institute through an award from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network of Centres of Excellence’s (MEOPAR-NCE) Southampton Island Marine Ecosystem Project, and the Belmont Forum–BiodivERsA’s De-icing of Arctic Coasts: critical or new opportunities for marine biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (ACCES). KF-D was supported by the Australian Research Council (DE190100692).
    Keywords: Laminariales ; polar ; ensemble model ; species distribution model (SDM) ; climate change ; shallow subtidal benthic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Bongarts Lebbe, T., Rey-Valette, H., Chaumillon, E., Camus, G., Almar, R., Cazenave, A., Claudet, J., Rocle, N., Meur-Ferec, C., Viard, F., Mercier, D., Dupuy, C., Menard, F., Rossel, B. A., Mullineaux, L., Sicre, M.-A., Zivian, A., Gaill, F., & Euzen, A. Designing coastal adaptation strategies to tackle sea level rise. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, (2021): 740602, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.740602.
    Description: Faced with sea level rise and the intensification of extreme events, human populations living on the coasts are developing responses to address local situations. A synthesis of the literature on responses to coastal adaptation allows us to highlight different adaptation strategies. Here, we analyze these strategies according to the complexity of their implementation, both institutionally and technically. First, we distinguish two opposing paradigms – fighting against rising sea levels or adapting to new climatic conditions; and second, we observe the level of integrated management of the strategies. This typology allows a distinction between four archetypes with the most commonly associated governance modalities for each. We then underline the need for hybrid approaches and adaptation trajectories over time to take into account local socio-cultural, geographical, and climatic conditions as well as to integrate stakeholders in the design and implementation of responses. We show that dynamic and participatory policies can foster collective learning processes and enable the evolution of social values and behaviors. Finally, adaptation policies rely on knowledge and participatory engagement, multi-scalar governance, policy monitoring, and territorial solidarity. These conditions are especially relevant for densely populated areas that will be confronted with sea level rise, thus for coastal cities in particular.
    Description: This work was conducted as part of the project SEA’TIES led by the Ocean & Climate Platform. SEA’TIES is funded by the Prince Albert II Foundation (No. 3112), Veolia Foundation (No. 20EB2004), and Fondation de France, Monaco. It was coordinated by the CNRS, in the framework of the RTPi (International Multidisciplinary Thematic Network) which drives the scientific component of the SEA’TIES project.
    Keywords: climate change ; sea level rise ; adaptation ; governance ; nature-based solutions ; multidisciplinary approach ; vulnerability ; coastal cities
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Muelbert, J. H., Nidzieko, N. J., Acosta, A. T. R., Beaulieu, S. E., Bernardino, A. F., Boikova, E., Bornman, T. G., Cataletto, B., Deneudt, K., Eliason, E., Kraberg, A., Nakaoka, M., Pugnetti, A., Ragueneau, O., Scharfe, M., Soltwedel, T., Sosik, H. M., Stanisci, A., Stefanova, K., Stephan, P., Stier, A., Wikner, J., & Zingone, A. ILTER - the International Long-Term Ecological Research Network as a platform for global coastal and ocean observation. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 527, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00527.
    Description: Understanding the threats to global biodiversity and ecosystem services posed by human impacts on coastal and marine environments requires the establishment and maintenance of ecological observatories that integrate the biological, physical, geological, and biogeochemical aspects of ecosystems. This is crucial to provide scientists and stakeholders with the support and knowledge necessary to quantify environmental change and its impact on the sustainable use of the seas and coasts. In this paper, we explore the potential for the coastal and marine components of the International Long-Term Ecological Research Network (ILTER) to fill this need for integrated global observation, and highlight how ecological observations are necessary to address the challenges posed by climate change and evolving human needs and stressors within the coastal zone. The ILTER is a global network encompassing 44 countries and 700 research sites in a variety of ecosystems across the planet, more than 100 of which are located in coastal and marine environments (ILTER-CMS). While most of the ILTER-CMS were established after the year 2000, in some cases they date back to the early 1900s. At ILTER sites, a broad variety of abiotic and biotic variables are measured, which may feed into other global initiatives. The ILTER community has produced tools to harmonize and compare measurements and methods, allowing for data integration workflows and analyses between and within individual ILTER sites. After a brief historical overview of ILTER, with emphasis on the marine component, we analyze the potential contribution of the ILTER-CMS to global coastal and ocean observation, adopting the “Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats (SWOT)” approach. We also identify ways in which the in situ parameters collected at ILTER sites currently fit within the Essential Ocean Variables framework (as proposed by the Framework for Ocean Observation recommendations) and provide insights on the use of new technology in long-term studies. Final recommendations point at the need to further develop observational activities at LTER sites and improve coordination among them and with external related initiatives in order to maximize their exploitation and address present and future challenges in ocean observations.
    Description: JM was supported by a CNPq fellowship (Grant No. 310047/2016-1) and by PELD Estuário da Lagoa dos Patos e Costa Adjacente (CNPq/CAPES/FAPERGS). SB was supported by US NSF (Grant #OCE-1655686). AB was supported by CAPES/CNPq/FAPES grant no. 441243/2016-9 to PELD Coastal Habitats of Espírito Santo as part of the Brazilian LTER program. HS was supported by US NSF (Grant #CCF-1539256 and #OCE-1655686), Simons Foundation (Grant #561126) and US NOAA/CINAR (Cooperative Agreement NA14OAR4320158).
    Keywords: climate change ; marine ecosystems ; ecology ; EOVs ; SWOT ; DEIMS
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Bestley, S., Ropert-Coudert, Y., Bengtson Nash, S., Brooks, C. M., Cotte, C., Dewar, M., Friedlaender, A. S., Jackson, J. A., Labrousse, S., Lowther, A. D., McMahon, C. R., Phillips, R. A., Pistorius, P., Puskic, P. S., Reis, A. O. d. A., Reisinger, R. R., Santos, M., Tarszisz, E., Tixier, P., Trathan, P. N., Wege, M., & Wienecke, B. Marine ecosystem assessment for the Southern Ocean: birds and marine mammals in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 8, (2020): 566936, doi:10.3389/fevo.2020.566936.
    Description: The massive number of seabirds (penguins and procellariiformes) and marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) – referred to here as top predators – is one of the most iconic components of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. They play an important role as highly mobile consumers, structuring and connecting pelagic marine food webs and are widely studied relative to other taxa. Many birds and mammals establish dense breeding colonies or use haul-out sites, making them relatively easy to study. Cetaceans, however, spend their lives at sea and thus aspects of their life cycle are more complicated to monitor and study. Nevertheless, they all feed at sea and their reproductive success depends on the food availability in the marine environment, hence they are considered useful indicators of the state of the marine resources. In general, top predators have large body sizes that allow for instrumentation with miniature data-recording or transmitting devices to monitor their activities at sea. Development of scientific techniques to study reproduction and foraging of top predators has led to substantial scientific literature on their population trends, key biological parameters, migratory patterns, foraging and feeding ecology, and linkages with atmospheric or oceanographic dynamics, for a number of species and regions. We briefly summarize the vast literature on Southern Ocean top predators, focusing on the most recent syntheses. We also provide an overview on the key current and emerging pressures faced by these animals as a result of both natural and human causes. We recognize the overarching impact that environmental changes driven by climate change have on the ecology of these species. We also evaluate direct and indirect interactions between marine predators and other factors such as disease, pollution, land disturbance and the increasing pressure from global fisheries in the Southern Ocean. Where possible we consider the data availability for assessing the status and trends for each of these components, their capacity for resilience or recovery, effectiveness of management responses, risk likelihood of key impacts and future outlook.
    Description: SoB is supported by Australian Research Council DECRA DE180100828. PT is supported by Australian Research Council LP160100329. We thank the WWF-UK for financial support during the original workshop and to RR and YR-C.
    Keywords: marine ecosystem assessment ; marine predators ; climate change ; fisheries interactions ; conservation management ; Antarctic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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