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  • Elsevier  (116,549)
  • Institute of Physics  (33,179)
  • Cell Press  (9,154)
  • American Geophysical Union
  • 2010-2014  (165,220)
  • 2012  (165,220)
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Keywords
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Year
  • 1
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    Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-17
    Description: The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1292-1310
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Expert elicitation ; Expert judgement ; Subjective probability ; Cross-validation ; Cooke Classical Model ; Expected Relative Frequency model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    The September 26, 1997 Colfiorito, Italy Earthquakes: modeled coseismic surface displacement from SAR interferometry and GPS (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-25
    Description: The largest events of the 1997 Umbria-Marche sesimic sequence were the two September 26 earthquakes of Mw=5.7 (00:33 GMT) and Mw=6.0 (09:40 GMT), which caused severe damage and ground cracks in a wide area around the epicenters. We created an ERS-SAR differenrtial interferogram, where nine fringes are visible in and around the Colfiorito basin, corresponding to 25 cm of coseismic surface dispalacements. GPS data show a maximum horizontal displacement...
    Description: Published
    Description: 883-886
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Colfiorito, SAR, GPS ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Pegaso: an ultra-light long duration stratospheric payload for polar regions flights (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: Stratospheric balloons are powerful and affordable tools for a wide spectrum of scientific investigations that are carried out at the stratosphere level. They are less expensive compared to satellite projects and have the capability to lift payloads from a few kilograms to a couple of tons or more, well above the troposphere, for more than a month. Another interesting feature of these balloons, which is not viable in satellites, is the short turnaround time, which enables frequent flights. We introduce the PEGASO (Polar Explorer for Geomagnetism And other Scientific Observations) project, a stratospheric payload designed and developed by the INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), Rome and La Sapienza University, Rome. The project was sponsored by the PNRA (Progetto Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide), Italy (Peterzen et al., 2003). This light payload (10 kg) was used by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) and Andoya Rocket Range (ARR) for five different scientific missions. PEGASO carries a 3-component flux-gate magnetometer, uses a solar cell array as the power source and has a GPS location system. The bi-directional telemetry system for data transfer and the remote control system were IRIDIUM based
    Description: INGV, PNRA, ASI, ARR, CNR, La Sapienza
    Description: Published
    Description: Beijing, China
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: open
    Keywords: LDB ; Polar areas ; Magnetometer ; Stratosphere ; 05. General::05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest::05.04.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 4
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    A year of lava fountaining at Etna: Volumes from SEVIRI (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-09
    Description: We present a new method that uses cooling curves, apparent in high temporal resolution thermal data acquired by geostationary sensors, to estimate erupted volumes and mean output rates during short lava fountaining events. The 15 minute temporal resolution of the data allows phases of waxing and peak activity to be identified during short (150-to- 810 minute-long) events. Cooling curves, which decay over 8-to-21 hour-periods following the fountaining event, can also be identified. Application to 19 fountaining events recorded at Etna by MSG’s SEVIRI sensor between 10 January 2011 and 9 January 2012, yields a total erupted dense rock lava volume of 28 106 m3, with a maximum intensity of 227 m3 s 1 being obtained for the 12 August 2011 event. The timeaveraged output over the year was 0.9 m3 s 1, this being the same as the rate that has characterized Etna’s effusive activity for the last 40 years.
    Description: We are grateful to EUMETSAT for SEVIRI data.
    Description: Published
    Description: L06305
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: satellite ; lava fountains ; Etna ; erupted volume ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Carbonate-derived CO2 purging magma at depth: Influence on the eruptive activity of Somma-Vesuvius, Italy (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-30
    Description: Mafic phenocrysts from selected products of the last 4 ka volcanic activity at Mt. Vesuvius were investigated for their chemical and O-isotope composition, as a proxy for primary magmas feeding the system. 18O/16O ratios of studied Mg-rich olivines suggest that near-primary shoshonitic to tephritic melts experienced a flux of sedimentary carbonate-derived CO2, representing the early process of magma contamination in the roots of the volcanic structure. Bulk carbonate assimilation (physical digestion) mainly occurred in the shallow crust, strongly influencing magma chamber evolution. On a petrological and geochemical basis the effects of bulk sedimentary carbonate digestion on the chemical composition of the near-primary melts are resolved from those of carbonate-released CO2 fluxed into magma. An important outcome of this process lies in the effect of external CO2 in changing the overall volatile solubility of the magma, enhancing the ability of Vesuvius mafic magmas to rapidly rise and explosively erupt at the surface.
    Description: Published
    Description: 84-95
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: stable-isotope ; magma geochemistry ; CO2-degassing ; Vesuvius ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-17
    Description: During AprileMay 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instruments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourlyaveraged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.
    Description: Published
    Description: 165-183
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanic ash dispersion ; Numerical model ; Model validation ; 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: We perform a retrospective forecast experiment on the 1992 Landers sequence comparing the predictive power of commonly used model frameworks for short‐term earthquake forecasting. We compare a modified short‐term earthquake probability (STEP) model, six realizations of the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, and four models that combine Coulomb stress changes calculations and rate‐and‐state theory to generate seismicity rates (CRS models). We perform the experiment under the premise of a controlled environment with predefined conditions for the testing region and data for all modelers. We evaluate the forecasts with likelihood tests to analyze spatial consistency and the total amount of forecasted events versus observed data. We find that (1) 9 of the 11 models perform superior compared to a simple reference model, (2) ETAS models forecast the spatial evolution of seismicity best and perform best in the entire test suite, (3) the modified STEP model matches best the total number of events, (4) CRS models can only compete with empirical statistical models by introducing stochasticity in these models considering uncertainties in the finite‐fault source model, and (5) resolving Coulomb stress changes on 3‐D optimally oriented planes is more adequate for forecasting purposes than using the specified receiver fault concept. We conclude that statistical models perform generally better than the tested physics‐based models and parameter value updates using the occurrence of aftershocks generally improve the predictive power in particular for the purely statistical models in space and time.
    Description: Published
    Description: B05305
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: earthquake forecast ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Engineering ground motion record selection in the ITalian ACcelerometric Archive (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: This paper introduces REXELite, an internet version of REXEL, a software for automatic selection of ground motion suites for nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures. REXELite was developed with the aim of integrating an advanced earthquake records’ repository, such as the ITalianACcelerometricArchive (ITACA), with a tool to define seismic input for engineering seismic analysis according to international standards (with priority to Europe). In fact, REXELite allows to define target design spectra according either to Eurocode 8 or to the Italian building code, and to search ITACA for suitable sets of seven records (comprised of one or two horizontal ground motion components) matching such target spectra: on average, in a user-specified period range, and with the desired tolerance. The records in the set also have, individually and according to some criteria, the most similar spectral shape with respect to that of the code. Selection options include magnitude, source-to-site distance, soil conditions and, if desired, linear scaling of records to reduce further record-to-record variability of the selected suite.This paper introduces REXELite, an internet version of REXEL, a software for automatic selection of ground motion suites for nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures. REXELite was developed with the aim of integrating an advanced earthquake records’ repository, such as the ITalianACcelerometricArchive (ITACA), with a tool to define seismic input for engineering seismic analysis according to international standards (with priority to Europe). In fact, REXELite allows to define target design spectra according either to Eurocode 8 or to the Italian building code, and to search ITACA for suitable sets of seven records (comprised of one or two horizontal ground motion components) matching such target spectra: on average, in a user-specified period range, and with the desired tolerance. The records in the set also have, individually and according to some criteria, the most similar spectral shape with respect to that of the code. Selection options include magnitude, source-to-site distance, soil conditions and, if desired, linear scaling of records to reduce further record-to-record variability of the selected suite.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1761-1778
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Response spectrum matching ; ITACA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    Birth of an ocean in the Red Sea: Initial pangs (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: We obtained areal variations of crustal thickness, magnetic intensity, and degree of melting of the sub- axial upwelling mantle at Thetis and Nereus Deeps, the two northernmost axial segments of initial oceanic crustal accretion in the Red Sea, where Arabia is separating from Africa. The initial emplacement of oceanic crust occurred at South Thetis and Central Nereus roughly $2.2 and $2 Ma, respectively, and is taking place today in the northern Thetis and southern Nereus tips. Basaltic glasses major and trace element com- position suggests a rift-to-drift transition marked by magmatic activity with typical MORB signature, with no contamination by continental lithosphere, but with slight differences in mantle source composition and/or potential temperature between Thetis and Nereus. Eruption rate, spreading rate, magnetic intensity, crustal thickness and degree of mantle melting were highest at both Thetis and Nereus in the very initial phases of oceanic crust accretion, immediately after continental breakup, probably due to fast mantle upwelling enhanced by an initially strong horizontal thermal gradient. This is consistent with a rift model where the lower continental lithosphere has been replaced by upwelling asthenosphere before continental rupturing, implying depth-dependent extension due to decoupling between the upper and lower lithosphere with man- tle-lithosphere-necking breakup before crustal-necking breakup. Independent along-axis centers of upwell- ing form at the rifting stage just before oceanic crust accretion, with buoyancy-driven convection within a hot, low viscosity asthenosphere. Each initial axial cell taps a different asthenospheric source and serves as nucleus for axial propagation of oceanic accretion, resulting in linear segments of spreading.
    Description: Published
    Description: Q08009
    Description: 2.6. TTC - Laboratorio di gravimetria, magnetismo ed elettromagnetismo in aree attive
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Red Sea ; Gravity and Magnetics ; magma genesis and partial melting ; mantle processes ; transition from continental to oceanic rift ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.04. Gravity anomalies ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.04. Magnetic anomalies ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Three-dimensional Moho topography in Italy: New constraints from receiver functions and controlled source seismology (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-26
    Description: In complex tectonics regions, seismological, geophysical, and geodynamic modeling require accurate definition of the Moho geometry. Various active and passive seismic experiments performed in the central Mediterranean region revealed local information on the Moho depth, in some cases used to produce interpolated maps. In this paper, we present a new and original map of the 3-D Moho geometry obtained by integrating selected high-quality controlled source seismic and teleseismic receiver function data. The very small cell size makes the retrieved model suitable for detailed regional studies, crustal corrections in teleseismic tomography, advanced 3-D ray tracing in regional earthquake location, and local earthquake tomography. Our results show the geometry of three different Moho interfaces: the European, Adriatic-Ionian, and Tyrrhenian. The three distinct Moho are fashioned following the Alpine and Apennines subduction, collision, and back-arc spreading and show medium- to high-frequency topographic undulations reflecting the complexity of the geodynamic evolution.
    Description: Published
    Description: Q09006
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Italy; controlled source seismology; crust; receiver function ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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