ALBERT

Description: We compare differences and similarities in the annual stratospheric HNO3 cycle derived from ground‐based measurements at the South Pole during 1993 and 1995, after correcting an error in earlier published profile retrievals for 1993 which led to under estimation of mixing ratios. The data series presented here provide profiling over the range ∼16–48 km, and cover the fall‐winter‐spring cycle in the behavior of HNO3 in the extreme Antarctic with a large degree of temporal overlap. With the exception of one gap of 20 days, the combined data sets cover a full annual cycle. The record shows an increase in HNO3 above 30 km occurring about 20 days before sunset, which appears to be the result of higher altitude heterogeneous conversion of NOx as photolysis diminishes. Both years show a strong increase in HNO3 beginning about polar sunset, in a layer peaking at about 25 km, as additional NOx is heterogeneously converted to nitric acid. When temperatures drop to the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation range near the end of May, gas phase HNO3 is rapidly reduced in the lower stratosphere, although at least 2–3 weeks of temperatures ≤192 K appear to be required to complete most of the gas‐phase removal at the upper end of the depletion range (22–25 km). Despite a significant difference in residual sulfate loading from the explosion of Mount Pinatubo, there appears to be little gross difference in the timing and effects of PSC formation in removing gas phase HNO3 in these 2 years, though removal may be more rapid in 1995. Incorporation of gas phase HNO3 into PSCs appears to be nearly complete up to ∼25 km by midwinter. We also see a repeat of the formation of gas phase HNO3 in the middle stratosphere in early midwinter of 1995 with about the same timing as in 1993, suggesting that this phenomenon is driven by a repetition of dynamical transport and appropriate temperatures and pressures in the polar night, and not (as has been suggested) by ion‐based heterogeneous chemistry that requires triggering by large relativistic electron fluxes. High‐altitude HNO3 production peaks during a period of ∼20 days, but appears to persist for up to ∼40 days in the 40–45 km range, ceasing well before sunrise. This HNO3 descends rapidly throughout the production period, at a rate in good agreement with theoretically determined midwinter subsidence rates. As noted in earlier studies, later warming of this region above PSC evaporation temperatures does not cause reappearance of large amounts of HNO3, indicating that most PSCs gravitationally sink out of the stratosphere before early spring. We present evidence that smaller PSCs do evaporate to ∼1 to 3.5 ppbv of HNO3 in the lower stratosphere, however, working downward from ∼25 km as temperatures rise during the late winter. There is a delay of ∼15 days after sunrise before photolysis causes significant depletion in the altitude range below ∼30 km, where subsidence has carried virtually all higher‐altitude HNO3 by polar sunrise. Some continued subsidence and photolysis combine to keep mixing ratios less than ∼5 ppbv below 30 km until the final breakdown of the vortex in November brings larger amounts of HNO3 with air from lower latitudes.

Description: Published

Description: 17739-17750

Description: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Vulcano is one of the 7 volcanic islands and 6 seamounts forming the Aeolian volcanic district (Italy). Vulcano has a long eruptive record, and its last eruption (1888–90 AD) originated the definition of the Vulcanian eruptive style. Like most volcanic islands, Vulcano generates many potentially interconnected hazards, determining a potentially high risk. Here, we review the state of knowledge on its geology, eruptive activity, historical accounts, structural setting, geophysical and geochemical surveillance, and available hazard assessment, in order to have an updated picture of the state knowledge on volcanic hazard. We follow a prototypal reviewing scheme, based on three standardized steps: i) review of the volcanic system; ii) review of available eruptive and noneruptive hazard quantifications; iii) development of a conceptual interpretative model. We find that, while a rather vast literature is dedicated to the volcanic system of Vulcano and the reconstruction of past events, few quantitative hazard assessments exist. In addition, the range of natural variability considered for each hazard is potentially underestimated (e.g. limited range of considered eruption magnitude and style and of vent position), as it is the potential effect of multi-hazard impact. The developed conceptual model for the feeding system provides a synthetic picture of the present knowledge about the system, as emerged from the review. In addition, it allows for the identification of potential paths-to-eruption and provides a first order link among the main hazards. This review provides an up-to-date snapshot of existing knowledge on volcanic hazard at Vulcano on which to build future hazard quantifications as well as to support present and future decision making.

Description: Published

Description: 103186

Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Reliable automatic procedure for locating earthquake in quasi-real time is strongly needed for seismic warning system, earthquake preparedness, and producing shaking maps. The reliability of an automatic location algorithm is influenced by several factors such as errors in picking seismic phases, network geometry, and velocity model uncertainties. The main purpose of this work is to investigate the performances of different automatic procedures to choose the most suitable one to be applied for the quasi-real-time earthquake locations in northwestern Italy. The reliability of two automatic-picking algorithms (one based on the Characteristic Function (CF) analysis, CF picker, and the other one based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), AIC picker) and two location methods (“Hypoellipse” and “NonLinLoc” codes) is analysed by comparing the automatically determined hypocentral coordinates with reference ones. Reference locations are computed by the “Hypoellipse” code considering manually revised data and tested using quarry blasts. The comparison is made on a dataset composed by 575 seismic events for the period 2000–2007 as recorded by the Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy. For P phases, similar results, in terms of both amount of detected picks and magnitude of travel time differences with respect to manual picks, are obtained applying the AIC and the CF picker; on the contrary, for S phases, the AIC picker seems to provide a significant greater number of readings than the CF picker. Furthermore, the “NonLin- Loc” software (applied to a 3D velocity model) is proved to be more reliable than the “Hypoellipse” code (applied to layered 1D velocity models), leading to more reliable automatic locations also when outliers (wrong picks) are present.

Description: Published

Description: 393–411

Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Dikes and sills are the moving building blocks of the plumbing system of volcanoes and play a fundamental role in the accretionary processes of the crust. They nucleate, propagate, halt, resume propagation, and sometimes change trajectory with drastic implications for the outcome of eruptions (Sigmundsson et al., 2010). Their dynamics is still poorly understood, in particular when different external influencing factors are interacting. Here we apply a boundary element model to study dike and sill formation, propagation and arrest in different scenarios. We model dikes as finite batches of compressible fluid magma, propagating quasi-statically in an elastic medium, and calculate their trajectories by maximising the energy release of the magma-rock system. We consider dike propagation in presence of density layering, of density plus rigidity layering, of a weakly welded interface between layers, under the action of an external stress field (of tectonic or topographic origin). Our simulations predict sill formation in several situations: i) when a horizontal weak interface is met by a propagating dike; ii) when a sufficiently high compressive tectonic environment is experienced by the ascending dike and iii) in case a dike, starting below a volcanic edifice, propagates away from the topographic load with a low dip angle. We find that dikes halt and stack when they become negatively buoyant and when they propagate with low overpressure at their upper tip toward a topographic load. Neutral buoyancy by itself cannot induce dikes to turn into sills, as previously suggested.

Description: Published

Description: 39-50

Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Public concern about anthropogenic seismic- ity in Italy first arose in the aftermath of the deadly M ≈ 6 earthquakes that hit the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) in May 2012. As these events occurred in a (tectonically active) region of oil and gas production and storage, the question was raised, whether stress perturbations due to underground industrial activities could have induced or triggered the shocks. Following expert recommendations, in 2014, the Italian Oil & Gas Safety Authority (DGS-UNMIG, Ministry of Economic Development) published guidelines (ILG - Indirizzi e linee guida per il monitoraggio della sismicità, delle deformazioni del suolo e delle pressioni di poro nell’ambito delle attività antropiche), describing regula- tions regarding hydrocarbon extraction, waste-water in- jection and gas storage that could also be adapted to other technologies, such as dams, geothermal systems, CO2 storage, and mining. The ILG describe the frame- work for the different actors involved in monitoring activities, their relationship and responsibilities, the procedure to be followed in case of variations of mon- itored parameters, the need for in-depth scientific anal- yses, the definition of different alert levels, their mean- ing and the parameters to be used to activate such alerts. Four alert levels are defined, the transition among which follows a decision to be taken jointly by relevant au- thorities and industrial operator on the basis of evalua- tion of several monitored parameters (micro-seismicity, ground deformation, pore pressure) carried on by a scientific-technical agency. Only in the case of liquid reinjection, the alert levels are automatically activated on the basis of exceedance of thresholds for earthquake magnitude and ground shaking – in what is generally known as a Traffic Light System (TLS). Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia has been charged by the Italian oil and gas safety authority (DGS- UNMIG) to apply the ILG in three test cases (two oil extraction and one gas storage plants). The ILG indeed represent a very important and positive innovation, as they constitute official guidelines to coherently regulate monitoring activity on a national scale. While pilot studies are still mostly under way, we may point out merits of the whole framework, and a few possible critical issues, requiring special care in the implementa- tion. Attention areas of adjacent reservoirs, possibly licenced to different operators, may overlap, hence mak- ing the point for joint monitoring, also in view of the possible interaction between stress changes related to the different reservoirs. The prescribed initial blank- level monitoring stage, aimed at assessing background seismicity, may lose significance in case of nearby ac- tive production. Magnitude – a critical parameter used to define a possible step-up in activation levels – has inherent uncertainty and can be evaluated using differ- ent scales. A final comment considers the fact that relevance of TLS, most frequently used in hydraulic fracturing operations, may not be high in case of trig- gered tectonic events.

Description: Published

Description: 1015–1028

Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This work presents the first chemical and isotopic (δ13C-CO2, δ13C-CH4, 3He, 4He, 20Ne, 40Ar, 36Ar, δ18O, and δD) data for fluid discharges fromGuallatiri volcano, a remote and massive stratovolcano, which is considered as the second most active volcano of the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) in northern Chile. Fumarolic gases had outlet temperatures of between 80.2 and 265 °C, and showed a significant magmatic fluid contribution marked by the occurrence of SO2, HCl, and HF that are partially scrubbed by a hydrothermal aquifer. The helium isotope ratios (〈 3.2) were relatively low compared to those of other active volcanoes in CVZ, possibly due to contamination of the magmatic source by 4He-rich crust and/or crustal fluid addition to the hydrothermal reservoir. Geothermometry in the H2O-CO2-CO-H2-CH4 system suggests equilibrium temperatures of up to 320 °C attained in a vapor phase at redox conditions intermediate between those typical of hydrothermal and magmatic environments. Thermal springs located 12 km northwest of the volcano’s summit had outlet temperatures of up to 50.1 °C, neutral to slightly basic pH, and a sodium bicarbonate composition, typical of distal fluid discharges in volcanic systems. Cold springs at the base of the volcanic edifice, showing a calcium sulfate composition, were likely produced by interaction of shallow meteoric water with CO2- andH2S-rich gases. A geochemical conceptual model was constructed to graphically represent these results, which can be used as an indication for future geochemical monitoring and volcanic hazard assessment.

Description: Published

Description: id 57

Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani

Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: In this paper, we present results of the reconstruction of the total grain size distribution (TGSD) of the material erupted during explosive volcanic eruptions at Campi Flegrei (Italy) considering all components (juvenile, lithic and crystal clasts). To date, the few TGSDs made available have been mostly reconstructed by assuming that the tephra deposits consisted of only one component. This simplification can introduce substantial bias in the interpretation of magma fragmentation mechanisms and significantly affect ash dispersion forecasts, since each tephra component has specific aerodynamic characteristics. By means of field investigations and laboratory analyses on samples collected from deposits of the Agnano-Monte Spina and Astroni eruptions, we reconstructed the TGSDs of juvenile, lithic and crystal components via the Voronoi tessellation method. Our results show how the systematic reconstruction of a TGSD, from the component-specific to the bulk TGSD, can provide important information on magma fragmentation mechanisms and wall-rock erosion processes. Results confirm that the bulk TGSD is the combination of the merging of different component subpopulations, according to their own TGSD, density and relative mass proportions. In addition, the integration of component analysis, TGSD and settling velocity data allowed characterization of the aerodynamic behaviour of each component at variable distances from the vent, which can be related to their own parent grain size distribution. The integration of new data from distal tephra deposits for the considered eruptions has thus allowed a reassessment of the erupted volumes of eruptions considered in this research, which are now 3.17 and 0.63 km3, for Agnano-Monte Spina and Astroni, respectively.

Description: Published

Description: id 31

Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Surface tension plays an important role in the nucleation of H2O gas bubbles in magmatic melts and in the time-dependent rheology of bubble-bearing magmas. Despite several experimental studies, a physics based model of the surface tension of magmatic melts in contact with H2O is lacking. This paper employs gradient theory to develop a thermodynamical model of equilibrium surface tension of silicate melts in contact with H2O gas at low to moderate pressures. In the last decades, this approach has been successfully applied in studies of industrial mixtures but never to magmatic systems. We calibrate and verify the model against literature experimental data, obtained by the pendant drop method, and by inverting bubble nucleation experiments using the Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT). Our model reproduces the systematic decrease in surface tension with increased H2O pressure observed in the experiments. On the other hand, the effect of temperature is confirmed by the experiments only at high pressure. At atmospheric pressure, the model shows a decrease of surface tension with temperature. This is in contrast with a number of experimental observations and could be related to microstructural effects that cannot be reproduced by our model. Finally, our analysis indicates that the surface tension measured inverting the CNT may be lower than the value measured by the pendant drop method, most likely because of changes in surface tension controlled by the supersaturation.

Description: Published

Description: 113-127

Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This paper reports the analysis of soil 222Rn data recorded over 7-years in the volcanic caldera of Campi Flegrei (Naples-Italy). The relationship between Radon activity concentration and several geophysical, geochemical and meteorological parameters, influencing the gas emissions, is estimated by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. The analysis goals are: the estimation (replication) of the Radon time series from influencing parameters, the forecasting of an unknown part of it, and the search for anomalies. Results prove: (i) the effectiveness of the ANN method; (ii) Radon follow the periods of agitation of the caldera, demonstrated by the comparison with previous works using different methods.

Description: Published

Description: 109239

Description: 6IT. Osservatori non satellitari

Description: JCR Journal

Description: In their comments Bonini et al. argue that our seismotectonic interpretation of the Emilia 2012 seismic sequence does not agree with observations, and follow three lines of arguments to support their statement. These concern the structural interpretation of seismic reflection profiles, the relationship between seismogenic sources and seismicity patterns, and the fit of inferred fault geometry to InSAR observations. These lines of arguments are mostly repeating what has been previously presented by the same authors, and none of them, as discussed in detail in our reply, presents a strong case against our structural interpretation, that, we are convinced, does not conflict with the available data. The two adjacent rupture surfaces outlined by accurately relocated aftershocks are an indication of the presence of two different active fault planes. Interpretation of seismic profiles supports seismological observation and indicates the occurrence of relevant along-strike changes in structural style. These pieces of information have been integrated to build a new seismotectonic interpretation for the area of the Emilia 2012 seismic sequence. Analysis of geodetic data from the area of the Emilia earthquakes has produced very different models of the fault planes; unlike what has been stated by Bonini et al., who see a difficult fit to InSAR data for the fault planes we have identified, the most recent results are consistent with our interpretation that see a steep fault in the upper 8–10 km under the Mirandola anticline. We point out that the geological structures in the subsurface of the Ferrara Arc do change along strike, and the attempt of Bonini et al. to explain both the May 20 and May 29 sequences using a single cross section is not appropriate.

Description: Published

Description: 157-162

Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra

Description: JCR Journal