ALBERT

Description: Can we determine what controls the spatio-temporal distribution of d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation using the LMDZ general circulation model? Climate of the Past, 9, 2173-2193, 2013 Author(s): C. Risi, A. Landais, R. Winkler, and F. Vimeux Combined measurements of the H 2 18 O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H 2 18 O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H 2 17 O have led to another second-order parameter: 17 O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17 O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17 O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM) LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD) and during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The simulation of D-excess and 17 O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity), Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17 O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17 O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17 O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17 O-excess by LMDZ suggest that general circulation models are not yet the perfect tool to quantify with confidence all processes controlling 17 O-excess.

Description: Global and regional sea surface temperature trends during Marine Isotope Stage 11 Climate of the Past, 9, 2231-2252, 2013 Author(s): Y. Milker, R. Rachmayani, M. F. G. Weinkauf, M. Prange, M. Raitzsch, M. Schulz, and M. Kučera The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424–374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic ( N = 28) or planktonic ( N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3–6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties 〉1 °C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.

Description: Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene Climate of the Past, 9, 811-823, 2013 Author(s): J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011) analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP). Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011), and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

Description: Stable isotopic evidence of El Niño-like atmospheric circulation in the Pliocene western United States Climate of the Past, 9, 903-912, 2013 Author(s): M. J. Winnick, J. M. Welker, and C. P. Chamberlain Understanding how the hydrologic cycle has responded to warmer global temperatures in the past is especially important today as concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere continue to increase due to human activities. The Pliocene offers an ideal window into a climate system that has equilibrated with current atmospheric p CO 2 . During the Pliocene the western United States was wetter than modern, an observation at odds with our current understanding of future warming scenarios, which involve the expansion and poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Here we compare Pliocene oxygen isotope profiles of pedogenic carbonates across the western US to modern isotopic anomalies in precipitation between phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that when accounting for seasonality of carbonate formation, isotopic changes through the late Pliocene match modern precipitation isotopic anomalies in El Niño years. Furthermore, isotopic shifts through the late Pliocene mirror changes through the early Pleistocene, which likely represents the southward migration of the westerly storm track caused by growth of the Laurentide ice sheet. We propose that the westerly storm track migrated northward through the late Pliocene with the development of the modern cold tongue in the east equatorial Pacific, then returned southward with widespread glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere – a scenario supported by terrestrial climate proxies across the US. Together these data support the proposed existence of background El Niño-like conditions in western North America during the warm Pliocene. If the earth behaves similarly with future warming, this observation has important implications with regard to the amount and distribution of precipitation in western North America.

Description: Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards Climate of the Past, 9, 825-840, 2013 Author(s): A. Simonneau, E. Chapron, B. Vannière, S. B. Wirth, A. Gilli, C. Di Giovanni, F. S. Anselmetti, M. Desmet, and M. Magny High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD 2005, AD 1891, AD 1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Dark-coloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5 mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of flash flood events during the Holocene was, however, not high enough to affect pedogenesis processes and highlight several wet regional periods during the Holocene. The Holocene period is divided into four phases of environmental evolution. Over the first half of the Holocene, a progressive stabilization of the soils present through the catchment of Lake Ledro was associated with a progressive reforestation of the area and only interrupted during the wet 8.2 event when the soil destabilization was particularly important. Lower soil erosion was recorded during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum (8000–4200 cal. yr BP) and associated with higher algal production. Between 4200 and 3100 cal. yr BP, both wetter climate and human activities within the drainage basin drastically increased soil erosion rates. Finally, from 3100 cal. yr BP to the present-day, data suggest increasing and changing human land use.

Description: Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP Climate of the Past, 9, 887-901, 2013 Author(s): P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina From 10 to 8 ka BP (thousand years before present), paleoclimate records show an atmospheric and oceanic cooling in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. During this interval, temperatures estimated from proxy data decrease by 0.8 °C over Antarctica and 1.2 °C over the Southern Ocean. In order to study the causes of this cooling, simulations covering the early Holocene have been performed with the climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM constrained to follow the signal recorded in climate proxies using a data assimilation method based on a particle filtering approach. The selected proxies represent oceanic and atmospheric surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere derived from terrestrial, marine and glaciological records. Two mechanisms previously suggested to explain the 10–8 ka BP cooling pattern are investigated using the data assimilation approach in our model. The first hypothesis is a change in atmospheric circulation, and the second one is a cooling of the sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean, driven in our experimental setup by the impact of an increased West Antarctic melting rate on ocean circulation. For the atmosphere hypothesis, the climate state obtained by data assimilation produces a modification of the meridional atmospheric circulation leading to a 0.5 °C Antarctic cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP compared to the simulation without data assimilation, without congruent cooling of the atmospheric and sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean. For the ocean hypothesis, the increased West Antarctic freshwater flux constrainted by data assimilation (+100 mSv from 10 to 8 ka BP) leads to an oceanic cooling of 0.7 °C and a strengthening of Southern Hemisphere westerlies (+6%). Thus, according to our experiments, the observed cooling in Antarctic and the Southern Ocean proxy records can only be reconciled with the reconstructions by the combination of a modified atmospheric circulation and an enhanced freshwater flux.

Description: Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka Climate of the Past, 9, 955-968, 2013 Author(s): C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10–25% in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of ~150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

Description: A mid-Holocene climate reconstruction for eastern South America Climate of the Past, 9, 2117-2133, 2013 Author(s): L. F. Prado, I. Wainer, C. M. Chiessi, M.-P. Ledru, and B. Turcq The mid-Holocene (6000 calibrated years before present) is a key period in palaeoclimatology because incoming summer insolation was lower than during the late Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas the opposite happened in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of the decreased austral summer insolation over South American climate have been poorly discussed by palaeodata syntheses. In addition, only a few of the regional studies have characterised the mid-Holocene climate in South America through a multiproxy approach. Here, we present a multiproxy compilation of mid-Holocene palaeoclimate data for eastern South America. We compiled 120 palaeoclimatological datasets, which were published in 84 different papers. The palaeodata analysed here suggest a water deficit scenario in the majority of eastern South America during the mid-Holocene if compared to the late Holocene, with the exception of northeastern Brazil. Low mid-Holocene austral summer insolation caused a reduced land–sea temperature contrast and hence a weakened South American monsoon system circulation. This scenario is represented by a decrease in precipitation over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone area, saltier conditions along the South American continental margin, and lower lake levels.

Description: Glacial fluctuations of the Indian monsoon and their relationship with North Atlantic climate: new data and modelling experiments Climate of the Past, 9, 2135-2151, 2013 Author(s): C. Marzin, N. Kallel, M. Kageyama, J.-C. Duplessy, and P. Braconnot Several paleoclimate records such as from Chinese loess, speleothems or upwelling indicators in marine sediments present large variations of the Asian monsoon system during the last glaciation. Here, we present a new record from the northern Andaman Sea (core MD77-176) which shows the variations of the hydrological cycle of the Bay of Bengal. The high-resolution record of surface water δ 18 O dominantly reflects salinity changes and displays large millennial-scale oscillations over the period 40 000 to 11 000 yr BP. Their timing and sequence suggests that events of high (resp. low) salinity in the Bay of Bengal, i.e. weak (resp. strong) Indian monsoon, correspond to cold (resp. warm) events in the North Atlantic and Arctic, as documented by the Greenland ice core record. We use the IPSL_CM4 Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Model to study the processes that could explain the teleconnection between the Indian monsoon and the North Atlantic climate. We first analyse a numerical experiment in which such a rapid event in the North Atlantic is obtained under glacial conditions by increasing the freshwater flux in the North Atlantic, which results in a reduction of the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This freshwater hosing results in a weakening of the Indian monsoon rainfall and circulation. The changes in the continental runoff and local hydrological cycle are responsible for an increase in salinity in the Bay of Bengal. This therefore compares favourably with the new sea water δ 18 O record presented here and the hypothesis of synchronous cold North Atlantic and weak Indian monsoon events. Additional sensitivity experiments are produced with the LMDZ atmospheric model to analyse the teleconnection mechanisms between the North Atlantic and the Indian monsoon. The changes over the tropical Atlantic are shown to be essential in triggering perturbations of the subtropical jet over Africa and Eurasia, that in turn affect the intensity of the Indian monsoon. These relationships are also found to be valid in additional coupled model simulations in which the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is forced to resume.

Description: Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia Climate of the Past, 9, 2153-2171, 2013 Author(s): Z. Tian and D. Jiang Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia are investigated by a set of numerical experiments performed with the version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). With reference to the pre-industrial period, most of the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal surface-air temperature and precipitation changes are found to result from a direct response of the atmosphere to insolation forcing, while dynamic ocean and vegetation modulate regional climate of East Asia to some extent. Because of its thermal inertia, the dynamic ocean induced an additional warming of 0.2 K for the annual mean, 0.5 K in winter (December–February), 0.0003 K in summer (June–August), and 1.0 K in autumn (September–November), but a cooling of 0.6 K in spring (March–May) averaged over China, and it counteracted (amplified) the direct effect of insolation forcing for the annual mean and in winter and autumn (spring) for that period. The dynamic vegetation had an area-average impact of no more than 0.4 K on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal temperatures over China, with an average cooling of 0.2 K for the annual mean. On the other hand, ocean feedback induced a small increase of precipitation in winter (0.04 mm day −1 ) and autumn (0.05 mm day −1 ), but a reduction for the annual mean (0.14 mm day −1 ) and in spring (0.29 mm day −1 ) and summer (0.34 mm day −1 ) over China, while it also suppressed the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The effect of dynamic vegetation on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal precipitation was comparatively small, ranging from −0.03 mm day −1 to 0.06 mm day −1 averaged over China. In comparison, the CCSM4 simulated annual and winter cooling over China agrees with simulations within the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), but the results are contrary to the warming reconstructed from multiple proxy data for the mid-Holocene. Ocean feedback narrows this model–data mismatch, whereas vegetation feedback plays an opposite role but with a level of uncertainty.

Description: Water-soluble organic carbon in snow and ice deposited at Alpine, Greenland, and Antarctic sites: a critical review of available data and their atmospheric relevance Climate of the Past, 9, 2195-2211, 2013 Author(s): M. Legrand, S. Preunkert, B. Jourdain, J. Guilhermet, X. Fa{ï}n, I. Alekhina, and J. R. Petit While it is now recognized that organic matter dominates the present-day atmospheric aerosol load over continents, its sources remain poorly known. The studies of organic species or organic fractions trapped in ice cores may help to overcome this lack of knowledge. Available data on the dissolved (or total) organic carbon (DOC or TOC) content of snow and ice often appear largely inconsistent, and, until now, no critical review has been conducted to understand the causes of these inconsistencies. To draw a more consistent picture of the organic carbon amount present in solid precipitation that accumulates on cold glaciers, we here review available data and, when needed, complete the data set with analyses of selected samples. The different data sets are then discussed by considering the age (modern versus pre-industrial, Holocene versus Last glacial Maximum) and type (surface snow, firn, or ice) of investigated samples, the deployed method, and the applied contamination control. Finally, the OC (DOC or TOC) levels of Antarctic, Greenland, and Alpine ice cores are compared and discussed with respect to natural (biomass burning, vegetation emissions) and anthropogenic sources (fossil fuel combustion) contributing to atmospheric OC aerosol.

Description: Major dust events in Europe during marine isotope stage 5 (130–74 ka): a climatic interpretation of the "markers" Climate of the Past, 9, 2213-2230, 2013 Author(s): D.-D. Rousseau, M. Ghil, G. Kukla, A. Sima, P. Antoine, M. Fuchs, C. Hatté, F. Lagroix, M. Debret, and O. Moine At present, major dust storms are occurring at mid-latitudes in the Middle East and Asia, as well as at low latitudes in Northern Africa and in Australia. Western Europe, though, does not experience such dramatic climate events, except for some African dust reaching it from the Sahara. This modern situation is of particular interest, in the context of future climate projections, since the present interglacial is usually interpreted, in this context, as an analog of the warm Eemian interval. European terrestrial records show, however, major dust events during the penultimate interglacial and early glacial. These events are easily observed in loess records by their whitish-color deposits, which lie above and below dark chernozem paleosols in Central European records of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 age. We describe here the base of the Dolni Vestonice (DV) loess sequence, Czech Republic, as the reference of such records. The dust is deposited during intervals that are characterized by poor vegetation – manifested by high δ 13 C values and low magnetic susceptibility – while the fine sand and clay in the deposits shows grain sizes that are clearly different from the overlying pleniglacial loess deposits. Some of these dust events have been previously described as "Markers" or Marker Silts (MS) by one of us (G. Kukla), and are dated at about 111–109 ka and 93–92 ka, with a third and last one slightly visible at about 75–73 ka. Other events correspond to the loess material of Kukla's cycles, and are described as eolian silts (ES); they are observed in the same DV sequence and are dated at about 106–105 ka, 88–86 ka, and 78.5–77 ka. These dates are determined by considering the OSL ages with their errors measured on the studied sequence, and the comparison with Greenland ice-core and European speleothem chronologies. The fine eolian deposits mentioned above, MS as well as ES, correspond to short events that lasted about 2 ka; they are synchronous with re-advances of the polar front over the North Atlantic, as observed in marine sediment cores. These deposits also correlate with important changes observed in European vegetation. Some ES and MS events appear to be coeval with significant dust peaks recorded in the Greenland ice cores, while others are not. This decoupling between the European eolian and Greenland dust depositions is of considerable interest, as it differs from the fully glacial situation, in which the Eurasian loess sedimentation mimics the Greenland dust record. Previous field observations supported an interpretation of MS events as caused by continental dust storms. We show here, by a comparison with speleothems of the same age found in the northern Alps, that different atmospheric-circulation modes seem to be responsible for the two categories of dust events, MS vs. ES.

Description: Laminated sediments in the Bering Sea reveal atmospheric teleconnections to Greenland climate on millennial to decadal timescales during the last deglaciation Climate of the Past, 10, 2215-2236, 2014 Author(s): H. Kuehn, L. Lembke-Jene, R. Gersonde, O. Esper, F. Lamy, H. Arz, G. Kuhn, and R. Tiedemann During the last glacial termination, the upper North Pacific Ocean underwent dramatic and rapid changes in oxygenation that lead to the transient intensification of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), recorded by the widespread occurrence of laminated sediments on circum-Pacific continental margins. We present a new laminated sediment record from the mid-depth (1100 m) northern Bering Sea margin that provides insight into these deglacial OMZ maxima with exceptional, decadal-scale detail. Combined ultrahigh-resolution micro-X-ray-fluorescence (micro-XRF) data and sediment facies analysis of laminae reveal an alternation between predominantly terrigenous and diatom-dominated opal sedimentation. The diatomaceous laminae are interpreted to represent spring/summer productivity events related to the retreating sea ice margin. We identified five laminated sections in the deglacial part of our site. Lamina counts were carried out on these sections and correlated with the Bølling–Allerød and Preboreal phases in the North Greenland Ice Core (NGRIP) oxygen isotope record, indicating an annual deposition of individual lamina couplets (varves). The observed rapid decadal intensifications of anoxia, in particular within the Bølling–Allerød, are tightly coupled to short-term warm events through increases in regional export production. This dependence of laminae formation on warmer temperatures is underlined by a correlation with published Bering Sea sea surface temperature records and δ 18 O data of planktic foraminifera from the Gulf of Alaska. The rapidity of the observed changes strongly implies a close atmospheric teleconnection between North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. We suggest that concomitant increases in export production and subsequent remineralization of organic matter in the Bering Sea, in combination with oxygen-poor waters entering the Being Sea, drove down oxygen concentrations to values below 0.1 mL L −1 and caused laminae preservation. Calculated benthic–planktic ventilation ages show no significant variations throughout the last deglaciation, indicating that changes in formation rates or differing sources of North Pacific mid-depth waters are not prime candidates for strengthening the OMZ at our site. The age models established by our correlation procedure allow for the determination of calendar age control points for the Bølling–Allerød and the Preboreal that are independent of the initial radiocarbon-based chronology. Resulting surface reservoir ages range within 730–990 yr during the Bølling–Allerød, 800–1100 yr in the Younger Dryas, and 765–775 yr for the Preboreal.

Description: Implication of methodological uncertainties for mid-Holocene sea surface temperature reconstructions Climate of the Past, 10, 2237-2252, 2014 Author(s): I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations. Further evaluations of potential subsurface and/or seasonal artifacts that may contribute to obscure the MH SST reconstructions are urgently needed to provide reliable benchmarks for model evaluations.

Description: Oxygen stable isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum climate: perspectives from data–model ( i LOVECLIM) comparison Climate of the Past, 10, 1939-1955, 2014 Author(s): T. Caley, D. M. Roche, C. Waelbroeck, and E. Michel We use the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM to simulate the climate and oxygen stable isotopic signal during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years). By using a model that is able to explicitly simulate the sensor (δ 18 O), results can be directly compared with data from climatic archives in the different realms. Our results indicate that i LOVECLIM reproduces well the main feature of the LGM climate in the atmospheric and oceanic components. The annual mean δ 18 O in precipitation shows more depleted values in the northern and southern high latitudes during the LGM. The model reproduces very well the spatial gradient observed in ice core records over the Greenland ice sheet. We observe a general pattern toward more enriched values for continental calcite δ 18 O in the model at the LGM, in agreement with speleothem data. This can be explained by both a general atmospheric cooling in the tropical and subtropical regions and a reduction in precipitation as confirmed by reconstruction derived from pollens and plant macrofossils. Data–model comparison for sea surface temperature indicates that i LOVECLIM is capable to satisfyingly simulate the change in oceanic surface conditions between the LGM and present. Our data–model comparison for calcite δ 18 O allows investigating the large discrepancies with respect to glacial temperatures recorded by different microfossil proxies in the North Atlantic region. The results argue for a strong mean annual cooling in the area south of Iceland and Greenland between the LGM and present (〉 6 °C), supporting the foraminifera transfer function reconstruction but in disagreement with alkenones and dinocyst reconstructions. The data–model comparison also reveals that large positive calcite δ 18 O anomaly in the Southern Ocean may be explained by an important cooling, although the driver of this pattern is unclear. We deduce a large positive δ 18 Osw anomaly for the north Indian Ocean that contrasts with a large negative δ 18 Osw anomaly in the China Sea between the LGM and the present. This pattern may be linked to changes in the hydrological cycle over these regions. Our simulation of the deep ocean suggests that changes in δ 18 Osw between the LGM and the present are not spatially homogeneous. This is supported by reconstructions derived from pore fluids in deep-sea sediments. The model underestimates the deep ocean cooling thus biasing the comparison with benthic calcite δ 18 O data. Nonetheless, our data–model comparison supports a heterogeneous cooling of a few degrees (2–4 °C) in the LGM Ocean.

Description: Deciphering the spatio-temporal complexity of climate change of the last deglaciation: a model analysis Climate of the Past, 7, 591-602, 2011 Author(s): D. M. Roche, H. Renssen, D. Paillard, and G. Levavasseur Understanding the sequence of events occuring during the last major glacial to interglacial transition (21 ka BP to 9 ka BP) is a challenging task that has the potential to unveil the mechanisms behind large scale climate changes. Though many studies have focused on the understanding of the complex sequence of rapid climatic change that accompanied or interrupted the deglaciation, few have analysed it in a more theoretical framework with simple forcings. In the following, we address when and where the first significant temperature anomalies appeared when using slow varying forcing of the last deglaciation. We used here coupled transient simulations of the last deglaciation, including ocean, atmosphere and vegetation components to analyse the spatial timing of the deglaciation. To keep the analysis in a simple framework, we did not include freshwater forcings that potentially cause rapid climate shifts during that time period. We aimed to disentangle the direct and subsequent response of the climate system to slow forcing and moreover, the location where those changes are more clearly expressed. In a data – modelling comparison perspective, this could help understand the physically plausible phasing between known forcings and recorded climatic changes. Our analysis of climate variability could also help to distinguish deglacial warming signals from internal climate variability. We thus are able to better pinpoint the onset of local deglaciation, as defined by the first significant local warming and further show that there is a large regional variability associated with it, even with the set of slow forcings used here. In our model, the first significant hemispheric warming occurred simultaneously in the North and in the South and is a direct response to the obliquity forcing.

Description: The last deglaciation: timing the bipolar seesaw Climate of the Past, 7, 671-683, 2011 Author(s): J. B. Pedro, T. D. van Ommen, S. O. Rasmussen, V. I. Morgan, J. Chappellaz, A. D. Moy, V. Masson-Delmotte, and M. Delmotte Precise information on the relative timing of north-south climate variations is a key to resolving questions concerning the mechanisms that force and couple climate changes between the hemispheres. We present a new composite record made from five well-resolved Antarctic ice core records that robustly represents the timing of regional Antarctic climate change during the last deglaciation. Using fast variations in global methane gas concentrations as time markers, the Antarctic composite is directly compared to Greenland ice core records, allowing a detailed mapping of the inter-hemispheric sequence of climate changes. Consistent with prior studies the synchronized records show that warming (and cooling) trends in Antarctica closely match cold (and warm) periods in Greenland on millennial timescales. For the first time, we also identify a sub-millennial component to the inter-hemispheric coupling. Within the Antarctic Cold Reversal the strongest Antarctic cooling occurs during the pronounced northern warmth of the Bølling. Warming then resumes in Antarctica, potentially as early as the Intra-Allerød Cold Period, but with dating uncertainty that could place it as late as the onset of the Younger Dryas stadial. There is little-to-no time lag between climate transitions in Greenland and opposing changes in Antarctica. Our results lend support to fast acting inter-hemispheric coupling mechanisms, including recently proposed bipolar atmospheric teleconnections and/or rapid bipolar ocean teleconnections.

Description: Reply to Henriksson et al.'s comment on "Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity" by Annan and Hargreaves (2010) Climate of the Past, 7, 587-589, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves Henriksson et al. (2010), hereafter HALTL10, criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2006a) (AH06) primarily on the grounds that we assumed that different sources of data were conditionally independent given the climate sensitivity. While we consider this approximation to have been a reasonable one under the circumstances (and provided arguments to justify this approach), we also acknowledged its importance in our original paper and performed several sensitivity analyses. The alternative calculations presented by HALTL10 appear to strengthen rather than contradict our conclusion. HALTL10 additionally criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2009) (AH09) for proposing a Cauchy type prior (as an alternative to the use of a uniform prior, which was widespread up to that time) "without sufficient support", and further claim that anticipated economic damages were used as a means of selecting the prior. We are surprised by these claims, especially considering that the proposed prior was justified at some length both on the basis of both the "Charney report" (National Research Council, 1979) and basic physical arguments, and also in light of our elementary demonstration of the pathological failings of the most commonly-used alternative. Thus, these claims are factually incorrect.

Description: Methane variations on orbital timescales: a transient modeling experiment Climate of the Past, 7, 635-648, 2011 Author(s): T. Y. M. Konijnendijk, S. L. Weber, E. Tuenter, and M. van Weele Methane (CH 4 ) variations on orbital timescales are often associated with variations in wetland coverage, most notably in the summer monsoon areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we test this assumption by simulating orbitally forced variations in global wetland emissions, using a simple wetland distribution and CH 4 emissions model that has been run on the output of a climate model (CLIMBER-2) containing atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The transient climate modeling simulation extends over the last 650 000 yr and includes variations in land-ice distribution and greenhouse gases. Tropical temperature and global vegetation are found to be the dominant controls for global CH 4 emissions and therefore atmospheric concentrations. The relative importance of wetland coverage, vegetation coverage, and emission temperatures depends on the specific climatic zone (boreal, tropics and Indian/Asian monsoon area) and timescale (precession, obliquity and glacial-interglacial timescales). Despite the low spatial resolution of the climate model and crude parameterizations for methane production and release, simulated variations in CH 4 emissions agree well with those in measured concentrations, both in their time series and spectra. The simulated lags between emissions and orbital forcing also show close agreement with those found in measured data, both on the precession and obliquity timescale. We find causal links between atmospheric CH 4 concentrations and tropical temperatures and global vegetation, but only covariance between monsoon precipitation and CH 4 concentrations. The primary importance of the first two factors explains the lags found in the CH 4 record from ice cores. Simulation of the dynamical vegetation response to climate variation on orbital timescales would be needed to reduce the uncertainty in these preliminary attributions.

Description: A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate Climate of the Past, 7, 649-670, 2011 Author(s): J. Brandefelt, E. Kjellström, J.-O. Näslund, G. Strandberg, A. H. L. Voelker, and B. Wohlfarth We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature ( T s ) is 5.5 °C lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 °C higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50 % in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. (iii) El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions. (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean T s only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.

Description: The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited Climate of the Past, 7, 603-633, 2011 Author(s): M. Huber and R. Caballero The early Eocene "equable climate problem", i.e. warm extratropical annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures evidenced by proxy records, has remained as one of the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate. Recent progress in modeling and in paleoclimate proxy development provides an opportunity to revisit this problem to ascertain if the current generation of models can reproduce the past climate features without extensive modification. Here we have compiled early Eocene terrestrial temperature data and compared with climate model results using a consistent and rigorous methodology. We test the hypothesis that equable climates can be explained simply as a response to increased greenhouse gas forcing within the framework of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (version 3), a climate model in common use for predicting future climate change. We find that, with suitably large radiative forcing, the model and data are in general agreement for annual mean and cold month mean temperatures, and that the pattern of high latitude amplification recorded by proxies can be largely, but not perfectly, reproduced.

Description: The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature Climate of the Past, 7, 527-542, 2011 Author(s): G. van der Schrier, A. van Ulden, and G. J. van Oldenborgh The Central Netherlands Temperature (CNT) is a monthly daily mean temperature series constructed from homogenized time series from the centre of the Netherlands. The purpose of this series is to offer a homogeneous time series representative of a larger area in order to study large-scale temperature changes. It will also facilitate a comparison with climate models, which resolve similar scales. From 1906 onwards, temperature measurements in the Netherlands have been sufficiently standardized to construct a high-quality series. Long time series have been constructed by merging nearby stations and using the overlap to calibrate the differences. These long time series and a few time series of only a few decades in length have been subjected to a homogeneity analysis in which significant breaks and artificial trends have been corrected. Many of the detected breaks correspond to changes in the observations that are documented in the station metadata. This version of the CNT, to which we attach the version number 1.1, is constructed as the unweighted average of four stations (De Bilt, Winterswijk/Hupsel, Oudenbosch/Gilze-Rijen and Gemert/Volkel) with the stations Eindhoven and Deelen added from 1951 and 1958 onwards, respectively. The global gridded datasets used for detecting and attributing climate change are based on raw observational data. Although some homogeneity adjustments are made, these are not based on knowledge of local circumstances but only on statistical evidence. Despite this handicap, and the fact that these datasets use grid boxes that are far larger then the area associated with that of the Central Netherlands Temperature, the temperature interpolated to the CNT region shows a warming trend that is broadly consistent with the CNT trend in all of these datasets. The actual trends differ from the CNT trend up to 30 %, which highlights the need to base future global gridded temperature datasets on homogenized time series.

Description: Winter and summer blocking variability in the North Atlantic region – evidence from long-term observational and proxy data from southwestern Greenland Climate of the Past, 7, 543-555, 2011 Author(s): N. Rimbu and G. Lohmann We investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and distribution in connection with long-term observational and proxy records from southwestern Greenland. It is shown that warm (cold) conditions in southwestern Greenland during winter are related with high (low) blocking activity in the Greenland-Scandinavian region. The pattern of winter temperature-blocking variability is more complex than the blocking pattern associated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find, furthermore, that a North Atlantic blocking index is significantly correlated with seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Greenland ice cores. Both suggest a possible reconstruction of blocking variability in this region. During summer, high (low) blocking activity in the Euro-Atlantic region is associated with cold (warm) conditions in southwestern Greenland. We conclude that historical temperature records, as well as proxy data from Greenland, can be used to obtain information related to interannual and multidecadal variation of winter and summer blocking during past periods.

Description: Sensitivity of East African savannah vegetation to historical moisture-balance variation Climate of the Past, 10, 2067-2080, 2014 Author(s): I. Ssemmanda, V. Gelorini, and D. Verschuren Fossil pollen records provide key insight into the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. However, tracing vegetation response to relatively modest historical climate fluctuations is often complicated by the overriding signature of anthropogenic landscape disturbance. Here we use high-resolution pollen data from a ~200-year lake-sediment record in open wooded savannah of Queen Elizabeth National Park (southwestern Uganda) to assess the sensitivity of the tropical lowland grassland–forest transition to historical, decade-scale moisture-balance fluctuations. Specifically we trace vegetation response to three episodes of higher average rainfall dated to the 1820s–1830s, ca. 1865–1890 and from 1962 to around 2000. Our pollen data indeed reveal a sequence of three wet periods, separated by two drier periods. During the inferred wetter episodes we find increases in the percent pollen abundance of trees and shrubs from moist semi-deciduous forest ( Allophylus , Macaranga , Alchornea , Celtis ), riparian forest ( Phoenix reclinata ) and wooded savannah ( Acalypha , Rhus -type vulgaris , Combretaceae/Melastomataceae) as well as taxa common in the local rift-valley grasslands ( Acacia , Ficus ), together creating strong temporary reductions in Poaceae pollen (to 45–55% of the terrestrial pollen sum). During intervening dry periods, Poaceae pollen attained values of 65–75%, and dryland herbs such as Commelina , Justicia -type odora and Chenopodiaceae expanded at the expense of Asteraceae, Solanum -type, Swertia usambarensis -type, and (modestly so) Urticaceae. Noting that the overall richness of arboreal taxa remained high but their combined abundance low, we conclude that the landscape surrounding Lake Chibwera has been an open wooded savannah throughout the past 200 years, with historical moisture-balance variation exerting modest effects on local tree cover (mostly the abundance of Acacia and Ficus ) and the occurrence of damp soil areas promoting Phoenix reclinata . The strong apparent expansion of true forest trees during wet episodes can be explained partly by enhanced pollen input via a temporarily activated upland stream. Pollen from exotic trees and cultural indicators appears from the 1970s onwards, but their combined influence fails to mask the signature of natural vegetation dynamics in the pollen record.

Description: CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware): a probability density function (PDF)-based quantitative climate reconstruction method Climate of the Past, 10, 2081-2098, 2014 Author(s): M. Chevalier, R. Cheddadi, and B. M. Chase Several methods currently exist to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoclimatic variables from fossil botanical data. Of these, probability density function (PDF)-based methods have proven valuable as they can be applied to a wide range of plant assemblages. Most commonly applied to fossil pollen data, their performance, however, can be limited by the taxonomic resolution of the pollen data, as many species may belong to a given pollen type. Consequently, the climate information associated with different species cannot always be precisely identified, resulting in less-accurate reconstructions. This can become particularly problematic in regions of high biodiversity. In this paper, we propose a novel PDF-based method that takes into account the different climatic requirements of each species constituting the broader pollen type. PDFs are fitted in two successive steps, with parametric PDFs fitted first for each species and then a combination of those individual species PDFs into a broader single PDF to represent the pollen type as a unit. A climate value for the pollen assemblage is estimated from the likelihood function obtained after the multiplication of the pollen-type PDFs, with each being weighted according to its pollen percentage. To test its performance, we have applied the method to southern Africa as a regional case study and reconstructed a suite of climatic variables (e.g. winter and summer temperature and precipitation, mean annual aridity, rainfall seasonality). The reconstructions are shown to be accurate for both temperature and precipitation. Predictable exceptions were areas that experience conditions at the extremes of the regional climatic spectra. Importantly, the accuracy of the reconstructed values is independent of the vegetation type where the method is applied or the number of species used. The method used in this study is publicly available in a software package entitled CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware) and will provide the opportunity to reconstruct quantitative estimates of climatic variables even in areas with high geographical and botanical diversity.

Description: The global ocean circulation on a retrograde rotating earth Climate of the Past, 7, 487-499, 2011 Author(s): V. Kamphuis, S. E. Huisman, and H. A. Dijkstra To understand the three-dimensional ocean circulation patterns that have occurred in past continental geometries, it is crucial to study the role of the present-day continental geometry and surface (wind stress and buoyancy) forcing on the present-day global ocean circulation. This circulation, often referred to as the Conveyor state, is characterised by an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) with a deep water formation at northern latitudes and the absence of such a deep water formation in the North Pacific. This MOC asymmetry is often attributed to the difference in surface freshwater flux: the Atlantic as a whole is a basin with net evaporation, while the Pacific receives net precipitation. This issue is revisited in this paper by considering the global ocean circulation on a retrograde rotating earth, computing an equilibrium state of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice model CCSM3. The Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is indeed reversed, but the ocean circulation pattern is not an Inverse Conveyor state (with deep water formation in the North Pacific) as there is relatively weak but intermittently strong deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Using a fully-implicit, global ocean-only model the stability properties of the Atlantic MOC on a retrograde rotating earth are also investigated, showing a similar regime of multiple equilibria as in the present-day case. These results indicate that the present-day asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is not the most important factor setting the Atlantic-Pacific salinity difference and, thereby, the asymmetry in the global MOC.

Description: Holocene vegetation and biomass changes on the Tibetan Plateau – a model-pollen data comparison Climate of the Past, 7, 881-901, 2011 Author(s): A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, U. Herzschuh, and N. Fischer Results of a transient numerical experiment performed in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model with orbital forcing alone are compared to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions covering the last 6000 yr from four representative sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Causes of the vegetation change and consequences of the biomass storage are analysed. In general, simulated and reconstructed vegetation trends at each site are in good agreement. Both methods reveal a general retreat of the biomass-rich vegetation that is particularly manifested in a strong decrease of forests. However, model and reconstructions often differ with regard to the climatic factors causing the vegetation change at each site. The reconstructions primarily identify decreasing summer monsoon precipitation and changes in the temperature of the warm season as the responsible mechanisms for the vegetation shift. In the model, the land cover change mainly originates from differences in warm/cold seasonal temperatures and only to a lesser extent from precipitation changes. According to the model results, the averaged forest fraction on the Plateau shrinks by almost one-third from mid-Holocene (41.4 %) to present-day (28.3 %). Shrubs, whose fraction is quadrupled at present-day (12.3 %), replace most of this forest. Grass fraction increases from 38.1 % during the mid-Holocene to 42.3 % at present-day. This land cover change results in a decrease of living biomass by 0.62 kgC m −2 . Total biomass on the Tibetan Plateau decreases by 1.9 kgC m −2 , i.e. approx. 6.64 PgC are released due to the natural land cover change.

Description: Weakened atmospheric energy transport feedback in cold glacial climates Climate of the Past, 7, 1061-1073, 2011 Author(s): I. Cvijanovic, P. L. Langen, and E. Kaas The response of atmospheric energy transport during Northern Hemisphere cooling and warming from present day (PD) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions is investigated using sea surface temperature anomalies derived from a freshwater hosing experiment. The present day climate shows enhanced sensitivity of the atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the LGM, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that may arise from changes in the oceanic transport. This effect is found to be a result of both the atmospheric and surface flux response. The increased PD transport sensitivity relative to that of the LGM is linked to a stronger dry static energy transport response which, in turn, is mainly driven by larger changes in the transient eddy heat flux. In comparison, changes in mid-latitude latent heat transport play a minor role in the overall transport sensitivity.

Description: Uncertainties in modelling CH 4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters Climate of the Past, 7, 1075-1087, 2011 Author(s): C. Berrittella and J. van Huissteden Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH 4 , although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH 4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH 4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH 4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH 4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH 4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG) wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH 4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO 2 /CH 4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport ( f ox ), vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol P max ), plant transport rate ( V transp ), maximum rooting depth ( Z root ) and root exudation rate ( f ex ). Our model results show that modelled CH 4 fluxes are sensitive to f ox and Z root in particular. The effects of P max , V transp and f ex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for V transp . We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming dominance of one vegetation type ( Sphagnum vs. Carex vs. Shrubs ) show that Carex -dominated vegetation can increase CH 4 emissions by 50% to 78% over Sphagnum -dominated vegetation depending on the modelled climate, while for shrubs this increase ranges from 42% to 72%. Consequently, during the LG northern wetlands may have had CH 4 emissions similar to their present-day counterparts, despite a colder climate. Changes in dominant wetland vegetation, therefore, may drive changes in wetland CH 4 fluxes, in the past as well as in the future.

Description: The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model Climate of the Past, 7, 1169-1188, 2011 Author(s): M. Krapp and J. H. Jungclaus We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO 2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO 2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate, also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However, we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead, a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics, therefore, does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene.

Description: Corrigendum to "Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study" published in Clim. Past, 7, 1103–1122, 2011 Climate of the Past, 7, 1149-1168, 2011 Author(s): F. Adloff, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Kučera, R. Grimm, E. Maier-Reimer, G. Schmiedl, and K.-C. Emeis Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Description: Glacial-interglacial vegetation dynamics in South Eastern Africa coupled to sea surface temperature variations in the Western Indian Ocean Climate of the Past, 7, 1209-1224, 2011 Author(s): L. M. Dupont, T. Caley, J.-H. Kim, I. Castañeda, B. Malaizé, and J. Giraudeau Glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the vegetation of South Africa might elucidate the climate system at the edge of the tropics between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, vegetation records covering a full glacial cycle have only been published from the eastern South Atlantic. We present a pollen record of the marine core MD96-2048 retrieved by the Marion Dufresne from the Indian Ocean ∼120 km south of the Limpopo River mouth. The sedimentation at the site is slow and continuous. The upper 6 m (spanning the past 342 Ka) have been analysed for pollen and spores at millennial resolution. The terrestrial pollen assemblages indicate that during interglacials, the vegetation of eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique largely consisted of evergreen and deciduous forests. During glacials open mountainous scrubland dominated. Montane forest with Podocarpus extended during humid periods was favoured by strong local insolation. Correlation with the sea surface temperature record of the same core indicates that the extension of mountainous scrubland primarily depends on sea surface temperatures of the Agulhas Current. Our record corroborates terrestrial evidence of the extension of open mountainous scrubland (including fynbos-like species of the high-altitude Grassland biome) for the last glacial as well as for other glacial periods of the past 300 Ka.

Description: Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene Climate of the Past, 7, 1189-1207, 2011 Author(s): D. Ackerley, A. Lorrey, J. A. Renwick, S. J. Phipps, S. Wagner, S. Dean, J. Singarayer, P. Valdes, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. Ohgaito, and J. M. Jones Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

Description: Past surface temperatures at the NorthGRIP drill site from the difference in firn diffusion of water isotopes Climate of the Past, 7, 1327-1335, 2011 Author(s): S. B. Simonsen, S. J. Johnsen, T. J. Popp, B. M. Vinther, V. Gkinis, and H. C. Steen-Larsen A new ice core paleothermometer is introduced based on the temperature dependent diffusion of the stable water isotopes in the firn. A new parameter called differential diffusion length is defined as the difference between the diffusion length of the two stable water isotopologues 2 H 1 H 16 O and 1 H 2 18 O. A model treatment of the diffusion process of the firn and the ice is presented along with a method of retrieving the diffusion signal from the ice core record of water isotopes using spectral methods. The model shows how the diffusion process is highly dependent on the inter-annual variations in the surface temperatures. It results in a diffusion length longer than if the firn was isothermal. The longer diffusion length can be explained by the strong nonlinearly behaviour of the saturation pressure over ice in the range of the surface temperature fluctuations. The method has been tested on δ 18 O and δD measurements, spanning the transition from the last glacial to the holocene, from the NorthGRIP ice core. The surface temperature reconstruction based on the differential diffusion resembles other temperature reconstructions for the NorthGRIP ice core. However, the Allerød warming is seen to be significantly warmer than observed in other ice core based temperature reconstructions. The mechanisms behind this behaviour are not fully understood. The method shows the need of an expansion of high resolution stable water isotope datasets from ice cores. However, the new ice core paleothermometer presented here will give valuable insight into past climate, through the physical process of isotope diffusion in the firn column of ice sheets.

Description: Fire history in western Patagonia from paired tree-ring fire-scar and charcoal records Climate of the Past, 8, 451-466, 2012 Author(s): A. Holz, S. Haberle, T. T. Veblen, R. De Pol-Holz, and J. Southon Fire history reconstructions are typically based on tree ages and tree-ring fire scars or on charcoal in sedimentary records from lakes or bogs, but rarely on both. In this study of fire history in western Patagonia (47–48° S) in southern South America (SSA) we compared three sedimentary charcoal records collected in bogs with tree-ring fire-scar data collected at 13 nearby sample sites. We examined the temporal and spatial correspondence between the two fire proxies and also compared them to published charcoal records from distant sites in SSA, and with published proxy reconstructions of regional climate variability and large-scale climate modes. Two of our three charcoal records record fire activity for the last 4 ka yr and one for the last 11 ka yr. For the last ca. 400 yr, charcoal accumulation peaks tend to coincide with high fire activity in the tree-ring fire scar records, but the charcoal records failed to detect some of the fire activity recorded by tree rings. Potentially, this discrepancy reflects low-severity fires that burn in herbaceous and other fine fuels without depositing charcoal in the sedimentary record. Periods of high fire activity tended to be synchronous across sample areas, across proxy types, and with proxy records of regional climatic variability as well as major climate drivers. Fire activity throughout the Holocene in western Patagonia has responded to regional climate variation affecting a broad region of southern South America that is teleconnected to both tropical- and high-latitude climate drivers-El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. An early Holocene peak in fire activity pre-dates any known human presence in our study area, and consequently implicates lightning as the ignition source. In contrast, the increased fire activity during the 20th century, which was concomitantly recorded by charcoal from all the sampled bogs and at all fire-scar sample sites, is attributed to human-set fires and is outside the range of variability characteristic of these ecosystems over many centuries and probably millennia.

Description: Exploring errors in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions using Monte Carlo simulations: paleotemperature from mollusk and coral geochemistry Climate of the Past, 8, 433-450, 2012 Author(s): M. Carré, J. P. Sachs, J. M. Wallace, and C. Favier Quantitative reconstructions of the past climate statistics from geochemical coral or mollusk records require quantified error bars in order to properly interpret the amplitude of the climate change and to perform meaningful comparisons with climate model outputs. We introduce here a more precise categorization of reconstruction errors, differentiating the error bar due to the proxy calibration uncertainty from the standard error due to sampling and variability in the proxy formation process. Then, we propose a numerical approach based on Monte Carlo simulations with surrogate proxy-derived climate records. These are produced by perturbing a known time series in a way that mimics the uncertainty sources in the proxy climate reconstruction. A freely available algorithm, MoCo, was designed to be parameterized by the user and to calculate realistic systematic and standard errors of the mean and the variance of the annual temperature, and of the mean and the variance of the temperature seasonality reconstructed from marine accretionary archive geochemistry. In this study, the algorithm is used for sensitivity experiments in a case study to characterize and quantitatively evaluate the sensitivity of systematic and standard errors to sampling size, stochastic uncertainty sources, archive-specific biological limitations, and climate non-stationarity. The results of the experiments yield an illustrative example of the range of variations of the standard error and the systematic error in the reconstruction of climate statistics in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Thus, we show that the sample size and the climate variability are the main sources of the standard error. The experiments allowed the identification and estimation of systematic bias that would not otherwise be detected because of limited modern datasets. Our study demonstrates that numerical simulations based on Monte Carlo analyses are a simple and powerful approach to improve the understanding of the proxy records. We show that the standard error for the climate statistics linearly increases with the climate variability, which means that the accuracy of the error estimated by MoCo is limited by the climate non-stationarity.

Description: Precipitation as the main driver of Neoglacial fluctuations of Gualas glacier, Northern Patagonian Icefield Climate of the Past, 8, 519-534, 2012 Author(s): S. Bertrand, K. A. Hughen, F. Lamy, J.-B. W. Stuut, F. Torrejón, and C. B. Lange Glaciers are frequently used as indicators of climate change. However, the link between past glacier fluctuations and climate variability is still highly debated. Here, we investigate the mid- to late-Holocene fluctuations of Gualas Glacier, one of the northernmost outlet glaciers of the Northern Patagonian Icefield, using a multi-proxy sedimentological and geochemical analysis of a 15 m long fjord sediment core from Golfo Elefantes, Chile, and historical documents from early Spanish explorers. Our results show that the core can be sub-divided into three main lithological units that were deposited under very different hydrodynamic conditions. Between 5400 and 4180 cal yr BP and after 750 cal yr BP, sedimentation in Golfo Elefantes was characterized by the rapid deposition of fine silt, most likely transported by fluvio-glacial processes. By contrast, the sediment deposited between 4130 and 850 cal yr BP is composed of poorly sorted sand that is free of shells. This interval is particularly marked by high magnetic susceptibility values and Zr concentrations, and likely reflects a major advance of Gualas glacier towards Golfo Elefantes during the Neoglaciation. Several thin silt layers observed in the upper part of the core are interpreted as secondary fluctuations of Gualas glacier during the Little Ice Age, in agreement with historical and dendrochronological data. Our interpretation of the Golfo Elefantes glaciomarine sediment record in terms of fluctuations of Gualas glacier is in excellent agreement with the glacier chronology proposed for the Southern Patagonian Icefield, which is based on terrestrial (moraine) deposits. By comparing our results with independent proxy records of precipitation and sea surface temperature, we suggest that the fluctuations of Gualas glacier during the last 5400 yr were mainly driven by changes in precipitation in the North Patagonian Andes.

Description: A critical humidity threshold for monsoon transitions Climate of the Past, 8, 535-544, 2012 Author(s): J. Schewe, A. Levermann, and H. Cheng Monsoon systems around the world are governed by the so-called moisture-advection feedback. Here we show that, in a minimal conceptual model, this feedback implies a critical threshold with respect to the atmospheric specific humidity q o over the ocean adjacent to the monsoon region. If q o falls short of this critical value q o c , monsoon rainfall over land cannot be sustained. Such a case could occur if evaporation from the ocean was reduced, e.g. due to low sea surface temperatures. Within the restrictions of the conceptual model, we estimate q o c from present-day reanalysis data for four major monsoon systems, and demonstrate how this concept can help understand abrupt variations in monsoon strength on orbital timescales as found in proxy records.

Description: Possible earthquake trigger for 6th century mass wasting deposit at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania) Climate of the Past, 8, 2069-2078, 2012 Author(s): B. Wagner, A. Francke, R. Sulpizio, G. Zanchetta, K. Lindhorst, S. Krastel, H. Vogel, J. Rethemeyer, G. Daut, A. Grazhdani, B. Lushaj, and S. Trajanovski Lake Ohrid shared by the Republics of Albania and Macedonia is formed by a tectonically active graben within the south Balkans and suggested to be the oldest lake in Europe. Several studies have shown that the lake provides a valuable record of climatic and environmental changes and a distal tephrostratigraphic record of volcanic eruptions from Italy. Fault structures identified in seismic data demonstrate that sediments have also the potential to record tectonic activity in the region. Here, we provide an example of linking seismic and sedimentological information with tectonic activity and historical documents. Historical documents indicate that a major earthquake destroyed the city of Lychnidus (today: city of Ohrid) in the early 6th century AD. Multichannel seismic profiles, parametric sediment echosounder profiles, and a 10.08 m long sediment record from the western part of the lake indicate a 2 m thick mass wasting deposit, which is tentatively correlated with this earthquake. The mass wasting deposit is chronologically well constrained, as it directly overlays the AD 472/AD 512 tephra. Moreover, radiocarbon dates and cross correlation with other sediment sequences with similar geochemical characteristics of the Holocene indicate that the mass wasting event took place prior to the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, and is attributed it to one of the known earthquakes in the region in the early 6th century AD.

Description: Sea-ice dynamics strongly promote Snowball Earth initiation and destabilize tropical sea-ice margins Climate of the Past, 8, 2079-2092, 2012 Author(s): A. Voigt and D. S. Abbot The Snowball Earth bifurcation, or runaway ice-albedo feedback, is defined for particular boundary conditions by a critical CO 2 and a critical sea-ice cover (SI), both of which are essential for evaluating hypotheses related to Neoproterozoic glaciations. Previous work has shown that the Snowball Earth bifurcation, denoted as (CO 2 , SI) * , differs greatly among climate models. Here, we study the effect of bare sea-ice albedo, sea-ice dynamics and ocean heat transport on (CO 2 , SI) * in the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM with Marinoan (~ 635 Ma) continents and solar insolation (94% of modern). In its standard setup, ECHAM5/MPI-OM initiates a~Snowball Earth much more easily than other climate models at (CO 2 , SI) * ≈ (500 ppm, 55%). Replacing the model's standard bare sea-ice albedo of 0.75 by a much lower value of 0.45, we find (CO 2 , SI) * ≈ (204 ppm, 70%). This is consistent with previous work and results from net evaporation and local melting near the sea-ice margin. When we additionally disable sea-ice dynamics, we find that the Snowball Earth bifurcation can be pushed even closer to the equator and occurs at a hundred times lower CO 2 : (CO 2 , SI) * ≈ (2 ppm, 85%). Therefore, the simulation of sea-ice dynamics in ECHAM5/MPI-OM is a dominant determinant of its high critical CO 2 for Snowball initiation relative to other models. Ocean heat transport has no effect on the critical sea-ice cover and only slightly decreases the critical CO 2 . For disabled sea-ice dynamics, the state with 85% sea-ice cover is stabilized by the Jormungand mechanism and shares characteristics with the Jormungand climate states. However, there is no indication of the Jormungand bifurcation and hysteresis in ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The state with 85% sea-ice cover therefore is a soft Snowball state rather than a true Jormungand state. Overall, our results demonstrate that differences in sea-ice dynamics schemes can be at least as important as differences in sea-ice albedo for causing the spread in climate models' estimates of the Snowball Earth bifurcation. A detailed understanding of Snowball Earth initiation therefore requires future research on sea-ice dynamics to determine which model's simulation is most realistic.

Description: Climate, people, fire and vegetation: new insights into vegetation dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean since the 1st century AD Climate of the Past, 9, 57-87, 2013 Author(s): J. Bakker, E. Paulissen, D. Kaniewski, J. Poblome, V. De Laet, G. Verstraeten, and M. Waelkens Anatolia forms a bridge between Europe, Africa and Asia and is influenced by all three continents in terms of climate, vegetation and human civilisation. Unfortunately, well-dated palynological records focussing on the period from the end of the classical Roman period until subrecent times are rare for Anatolia and completely absent for southwest Turkey, resulting in a lacuna in knowledge concerning the interactions of climatic change, human impact, and environmental change in this important region. Two well-dated palaeoecological records from the Western Taurus Mountains, Turkey, provide a first relatively detailed record of vegetation dynamics from late Roman times until the present in SW Turkey. Combining pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, sedimentological, archaeological data, and newly developed multivariate numerical analyses allows for the disentangling of climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation change. Results show changes in both the regional pollen signal as well as local soil sediment characteristics match shifts in regional climatic conditions. Both climatic as well as anthropogenic change had a strong influence on vegetation dynamics and land use. A moist environmental trend during the late-3rd century caused an increase in marshes and wetlands in the moister valley floors, limiting possibilities for intensive crop cultivation at such locations. A mid-7th century shift to pastoralism coincided with a climatic deterioration as well as the start of Arab incursions into the region, the former driving the way in which the vegetation developed afterwards. Resurgence in agriculture was observed in the study during the mid-10th century AD, coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. An abrupt mid-12th century decrease in agriculture is linked to socio-political change, rather than the onset of the Little Ice Age. Similarly, gradual deforestation occurring from the 16th century onwards has been linked to changes in land use during Ottoman times. The pollen data reveal that a fast rise in Pinus pollen after the end of the Beyşehir Occupation Phase need not always occur. The notion of high Pinus pollen percentages indicating an open landscape incapable of countering the influx of pine pollen is also deemed unrealistic. While multiple fires occurred in the region through time, extended fire periods, as had occurred during the Bronze Age and Beyşehir Occupation Phase, did not occur, and no signs of local fire activity were observed. Fires were never a major influence on vegetation dynamics. While no complete overview of post-BO Phase fire events can be presented, the available data indicates that fires in the vicinity of Gravgaz may have been linked to anthropogenic activity in the wider surroundings of the marsh. Fires in the vicinity of Bereket appeared to be linked to increased abundance of pine forests. There was no link with specifically wet or dry environmental conditions at either site. While this study reveals much new information concerning the impact of climate change and human occupation on the environment, more studies from SW Turkey are required in order to properly quantify the range of the observed phenomena and the magnitude of their impacts.

Description: Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records Climate of the Past, 9, 447-452, 2013 Author(s): H.-J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, and C. O. Weiss The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic shape, indicating this pattern as a global phenomenon. We used the mean of the six instrumental records for analysis by discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelets, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). For comparison, a stalagmite record was also analyzed by DFT. The harmonic decomposition of the abovementioned mean shows only six significant frequencies above periods over 30 yr. The Pearson correlation between the mean, smoothed by a 15-yr running average (boxcar) and the reconstruction using the six significant frequencies, yields r = 0.961. This good agreement has a 〉 99.9% confidence level confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the climate dynamics is governed at present by periodic oscillations. We find indications that observed periodicities result from intrinsic dynamics.

Description: The East Asian Summer Monsoon at mid-Holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations Climate of the Past, 9, 453-466, 2013 Author(s): W. Zheng, B. Wu, J. He, and Y. Yu Ten Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participated in the third phase of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) are assessed for the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) in both the pre-Industrial (PI, 0 ka) and mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka) simulations. Results show that the PMIP3 model median captures well the large-scale characteristics of the EASM, including the two distinct features of the Meiyu rainbelt and the stepwise meridional displacement of the monsoonal rainbelt. At mid-Holocene, the PMIP3 model median shows significant warming (cooling) during boreal summer (winter) over Eurasia continent that are dominated by the changes of insolation. However, the PMIP3 models fail to simulate a warmer annual mean and winter surface air temperature (TAS) over eastern China as derived from proxy records. The EASM at MH are featured by the changes of large-scale circulation over Eastern China while the changes of precipitation are not significant over its sub-domains of the Southern China and the lower reaches of Yangzi River. The inter-model differences for the monsoon precipitation can be associated with different configurations of the changes in large-scale circulation and the water vapour content, of which the former determines the sign of precipitation changes. The large model spread for the TAS over Tibetan Plateau has a positive relationship with the precipitation in the lower reaches of Yangzi River, yet this relationship does not apply to those PMIP3 models in which the monsoonal precipitation is more sensitive to the changes of large-scale circulation. Except that the PMIP3 model median captured the warming of annual mean TAS over Tibetan Plateau, no significant improvements can be concluded when compared with the PMIP2 models results.

Description: Exploring the controls on element ratios in middle Eocene samples of the benthic foraminifera Oridorsalis umbonatus Climate of the Past, 8, 1957-1971, 2012 Author(s): C. F. Dawber and A. K. Tripati Culturing studies and empirically based core top calibrations have been used to infer that elemental ratios in benthic foraminifera can be used as proxies to reconstruct past variations in bottom water temperature and saturation state (Δ [CO 3 2− ]). However the mechanisms linking elemental ratios to these parameters are poorly constrained. Here, we explore the environmental parameters influencing the incorporation of B, Li, Sr and Mg in Oridorsalis umbonatus in early Cenozoic sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1209. We investigate the influence of middle Eocene variations in intermediate water Δ [CO 3 2− ] using relationships developed from core top samples. The fidelity of bottom water Δ[CO 3 2− ] reconstructions based on single element ratios is assessed by comparing the X/Ca-based reconstructions to each other and to carbon cycle proxy records (benthic foraminifera δ 13 C, organic carbon content, foraminifera dissolution indices), and a seawater δ 18 O reconstruction for Site 1209. Discrepancies in the reconstructed Δ[CO 3 2− ] values based on these different metal ratios suggest that there are still gaps in our understanding of the parameters influencing X/Ca and demonstrate that caution is required when interpreting palaeo-reconstructions that are derived from a single elemental ratio. The downcore record of O. umbonatus Mg/Ca does not exhibit any similarities with the Li/Ca, B/Ca and Sr/Ca records, suggesting that the environmental parameters influencing Mg/Ca may be different for this species, consistent with temperature as the strongest control on this elemental ratio. This hypothesis is supported by the coefficients of multiple linear regression models on published Mg/Ca data. An incomplete understanding of the controls on elemental incorporation into benthic foraminifera hinders our ability to confidently quantify changes in saturation state using single X/Ca reconstructions over a range of timescales.

Description: An ocean–ice coupled response during the last glacial: a view from a marine isotopic stage 3 record south of the Faeroe Shetland Gateway Climate of the Past, 8, 1997-2017, 2012 Author(s): J. Zumaque, F. Eynaud, S. Zaragosi, F. Marret, K. M. Matsuzaki, C. Kissel, D. M. Roche, B. Malaizé, E. Michel, I. Billy, T. Richter, and E. Palis The rapid climatic variability characterising the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3 (~60–30 cal ka BP) provides key issues to understand the atmosphere–ocean–cryosphere dynamics. Here we investigate the response of sea-surface paleoenvironments to the MIS3 climatic variability through the study of a high resolution oceanic sedimentological archive (core MD99-2281, 60°21' N; 09°27' W; 1197 m water depth), retrieved during the MD114-IMAGES (International Marine Global Change Study) cruise from the southern part of the Faeroe Bank. This sector was under the proximal influence of European ice sheets (Fennoscandian Ice Sheet to the East, British Irish Ice Sheet to the South) during the last glacial and thus probably responded to the MIS3 pulsed climatic changes. We conducted a multi-proxy analysis of core MD99-2281, including magnetic properties, x-ray fluorescence measurements, characterisation of the coarse (〉150 μm) lithic fraction (grain concentration) and the analysis of selected biogenic proxies (assemblages and stable isotope ratio of calcareous planktonic foraminifera, dinoflagellate cyst – e.g. dinocyst – assemblages). Results presented here are focussed on the dinocyst response, this proxy providing the reconstruction of past sea-surface hydrological conditions, qualitatively as well as quantitatively (e.g. transfer function sensu lato ). Our study documents a very coherent and sensitive oceanic response to the MIS3 rapid climatic variability: strong fluctuations, matching those of stadial/interstadial climatic oscillations as depicted by Greenland ice cores, are recorded in the MD99-2281 archive. Proxies of terrigeneous and detritical material suggest increases in continental advection during Greenland Stadials (including Heinrich events), the latter corresponding also to southward migrations of polar waters. At the opposite, milder sea-surface conditions seem to develop during Greenland Interstadials. After 30 ka, reconstructed paleohydrological conditions evidence strong shifts in SST: this increasing variability seems consistent with the hypothesised coalescence of the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets at that time, which could have directly influenced sea-surface environments in the vicinity of core MD99-2281.

Description: Radiative effects of ozone on the climate of a Snowball Earth Climate of the Past, 8, 2019-2029, 2012 Author(s): J. Yang, Y. Hu, and W. R. Peltier Some geochemical and geological evidence has been interpreted to suggest that the concentration of atmospheric oxygen was only 1–10 % of the present level in the time interval from 750 to 580 million years ago when several nearly global glaciations or Snowball Earth events occurred. This low concentration of oxygen would have been accompanied by a lower ozone concentration than exists at present. Since ozone is a greenhouse gas, this change in ozone concentration would alter surface temperature, and thereby could have an important influence on the climate of the Snowball Earth. Previous works that have focused either on initiation or deglaciation of the proposed Snowball Earth has not taken the radiative effects of ozone changes into account. We address this issue herein by performing a series of simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model with various ozone concentrations. Our simulation results demonstrate that, as ozone concentration is uniformly reduced from 100 % to 50 %, surface temperature decreases by approximately 0.8 K at the Equator, with the largest decreases located in the middle latitudes reaching as high as 2.5 K. When ozone concentration is reduced and its vertical and horizontal distribution is simultaneously modulated, surface temperature decreases by 0.4–1.0 K at the Equator and by 4–7 K in polar regions. These results here have uncertainties, depending on model parameterizations of cloud, surface snow albedo, and relevant feedback processes, while they are qualitatively consistent with radiative-convective model results that do not involve such parameterizations and feedbacks. These results suggest that ozone variations could have had a moderate impact on the climate during the Neoproterozoic glaciations.

Description: Paleohydrology reconstruction and Holocene climate variability in the South Adriatic Sea Climate of the Past, 9, 499-515, 2013 Author(s): G. Siani, M. Magny, M. Paterne, M. Debret, and M. Fontugne Holocene paleohydrology reconstruction is derived combining planktonic and benthic stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and oxygen isotope composition of seawater (δ 18 O w ) from a high sedimentation core collected in the South Adriatic Sea (SAS). Core chronology is based on 10 AMS 14 C measures on planktonic foraminifera and tephra layers. Results reveal two contrasted paleohydrological periods that reflect (i) a marked lowering of δ 18 O w /salinity during the early to mid-Holocene (11.5 ka to 6.3 ka), including the two-step sapropel S1 deposition, followed during the mid- to upper Holocene by (ii) a prevailing period of increased salinity and enhanced arid conditions in the South Adriatic Basin. Superimposed on these trends, short-term centennial-scale hydrological events punctuated the Holocene period in the SAS. During the early to mid-Holocene, two main SST coolings together with prominent δ 18 O w /salinity lowering delineate the sapropel S1 interruption and the post-sapropel phase between 7.3 to 6.3 ka. After 6 ka, centennial-scale δ 18 O w and G. bulloides δ 13 C lowering, mostly centered between 3 to 0.6 ka, reflect short-term hydrological changes related to more intensive runoff of the Po and/or Apennine rivers. These short-term events, even of lesser amplitude compared to the early to mid-Holocene period, may have induced a lowering of sea surface density and consequently reduced and/or inhibited the formation of deep bottom waters in the SAS. Comparison of the emerging centennial- to millennial-scale hydrological record with previous climatic records from the central Mediterranean area and north of the Alps reveal possible synchronicities (within the radiocarbon-dating uncertainty) between phases of lower salinity in the SAS and periods of wetter climatic conditions around the north-central Adriatic Sea. Finally, wavelet analyses provide new clues about the potential origin of climate variability in the SAS, confirming the evidence for a mid-Holocene transition in the central Mediterranean climate and the dominance of a ~1670-yr periodicity after 6 ka, reflecting a plausible connection with the North Atlantic climate system.

Description: Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium – an assessment with the ECHO-g Model Climate of the Past, 9, 547-565, 2013 Author(s): P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

Description: Modulation of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic climate by variable drawdown of atmospheric p CO 2 from weathering of basaltic provinces on continents drifting through the equatorial humid belt Climate of the Past, 9, 525-546, 2013 Author(s): D. V. Kent and G. Muttoni The small reservoir of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( p CO 2 ) that modulates climate through the greenhouse effect reflects a delicate balance between large fluxes of sources and sinks. The major long-term source of CO 2 is global outgassing from sea-floor spreading, subduction, hotspot activity, and metamorphism; the ultimate sink is through weathering of continental silicates and deposition of carbonates. Most carbon cycle models are driven by changes in the source flux scaled to variable rates of ocean floor production, but ocean floor production may not be distinguishable from being steady since 180 Ma. We evaluate potential changes in sources and sinks of CO 2 for the past 120 Ma in a paleogeographic context. Our new calculations show that decarbonation of pelagic sediments by Tethyan subduction contributed only modestly to generally high p CO 2 levels from the Late Cretaceous until the early Eocene, and thus shutdown of this CO 2 source with the collision of India and Asia at the early Eocene climate optimum at around 50 Ma was inadequate to account for the large and prolonged decrease in p CO 2 that eventually allowed the growth of significant Antarctic ice sheets by around 34 Ma. Instead, variation in area of continental basalt terranes in the equatorial humid belt (5° S–5° N) seems to be a dominant factor controlling how much CO 2 is retained in the atmosphere via the silicate weathering feedback. The arrival of the highly weatherable Deccan Traps in the equatorial humid belt at around 50 Ma was decisive in initiating the long-term slide to lower atmospheric p CO 2 , which was pushed further down by the emplacement of the 30 Ma Ethiopian Traps near the equator and the southerly tectonic extrusion of SE Asia, an arc terrane that presently is estimated to account for 1/4 of CO 2 consumption from all basaltic provinces that account for ~1/3 of the total CO 2 consumption by continental silicate weathering (Dessert et al., 2003). A negative climate-feedback mechanism that (usually) inhibits the complete collapse of atmospheric p CO 2 is the accelerating formation of thick cation-deficient soils that retard chemical weathering of the underlying bedrock. Nevertheless, equatorial climate seems to be relatively insensitive to p CO 2 greenhouse forcing and thus with availability of some rejuvenating relief as in arc terranes or thick basaltic provinces, silicate weathering in this venue is not subject to a strong negative feedback, providing an avenue for ice ages. The safety valve that prevents excessive atmospheric p CO 2 levels is the triggering of silicate weathering of continental areas and basaltic provinces in the temperate humid belt. Excess organic carbon burial seems to have played a negligible role in atmospheric p CO 2 over the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

Description: Mechanisms for European summer temperature response to solar forcing over the last millennium Climate of the Past, 8, 1487-1495, 2012 Author(s): D. Swingedouw, L. Terray, J. Servonnat, and J. Guiot A simulation of the last millennium is compared to a recent spatio-temporal reconstruction of summer temperature over Europe. The focus is on the response to solar forcing over the pre-industrial era. Although the correlation between solar forcing and the reconstruction remains small, the spatial regression over solar forcing shows statistically significant regions. The meridional pattern of this regression is found to be similar in the model and in the reconstruction. This pattern exhibits a large warming over Northern and Mediterranean Europe and a lesser amplitude response over Central and Eastern Europe. The mechanisms explaining this pattern in the simulation are mainly related to evapotranspiration fluxes. It is shown that the evapotranspiration is larger in summer over Central and Eastern Europe when solar forcing increases, while it decreases over the Mediterranean area. The explanation for the evapotranspiration increase over Central and Eastern Europe is found in the increase of winter precipitation there, leading to a soil moisture increase in spring. As a consequence, the evapotranspiration is larger in summer, which leads to an increase in cloud cover over this region, reducing the surface shortwave flux there and leading to less warming. Over the Mediterranean area, the surface shortwave flux increases with solar forcing, the soil becomes dryer and the evapotranspiration is reduced in summer leading to a larger increase in temperature. This effect appears to be overestimated in the model as compared to the reconstruction. Finally, the warming of Northern Europe is related to the albedo feedback due to sea-ice cover retreat with increasing solar forcing.

Description: Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? Climate of the Past, 8, 1473-1485, 2012 Author(s): P. C. Tzedakis, E. W. Wolff, L. C. Skinner, V. Brovkin, D. A. Hodell, J. F. McManus, and D. Raynaud Differences in the duration of interglacials have long been apparent in palaeoclimate records of the Late and Middle Pleistocene. However, a systematic evaluation of such differences has been hampered by the lack of a metric that can be applied consistently through time and by difficulties in separating the local from the global component in various proxies. This, in turn, means that a theoretical framework with predictive power for interglacial duration has remained elusive. Here we propose that the interval between the terminal oscillation of the bipolar seesaw and three thousand years (kyr) before its first major reactivation provides an estimate that approximates the length of the sea-level highstand, a measure of interglacial duration. We apply this concept to interglacials of the last 800 kyr by using a recently-constructed record of interhemispheric variability. The onset of interglacials occurs within 2 kyr of the boreal summer insolation maximum/precession minimum and is consistent with the canonical view of Milankovitch forcing pacing the broad timing of interglacials. Glacial inception always takes place when obliquity is decreasing and never after the obliquity minimum. The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks, leading to shorter (~ 13 kyr) and longer (~ 28 kyr) interglacials. Glacial inception occurs approximately 10 kyr after peak interglacial conditions in temperature and CO 2 , representing a characteristic timescale of interglacial decline. Second-order differences in duration may be a function of stochasticity in the climate system, or small variations in background climate state and the magnitude of feedbacks and mechanisms contributing to glacial inception, and as such, difficult to predict. On the other hand, the broad duration of an interglacial may be determined by the phasing of astronomical parameters and the history of insolation, rather than the instantaneous forcing strength at inception.

Description: On the gas-ice depth difference (Δdepth) along the EPICA Dome C ice core Climate of the Past, 8, 1239-1255, 2012 Author(s): F. Parrenin, S. Barker, T. Blunier, J. Chappellaz, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Schwander, and D. Veres We compare a variety of methods for estimating the gas/ice depth offset (Δdepth) at EPICA Dome C (EDC, East Antarctica). (1) Purely based on modelling efforts, Δdepth can be estimated combining a firn densification with an ice flow model. (2) The diffusive column height can be estimated from δ 15 N and converted to Δdepth using an ice flow model and assumptions about past average firn density and thickness of the convective zone. (3) Ice and gas synchronisation of the EDC ice core to the GRIP, EDML and TALDICE ice cores shifts the ice/gas offset problem into higher accumulation ice cores where it can be more accurately evaluated. (4) Finally, the bipolar seesaw hypothesis allows us to synchronise the ice isotopic record with the gas CH 4 record, the later being taken as a proxy of Greenland temperature. The general agreement of method 4 with methods 2 and 3 confirms that the bipolar seesaw antiphase happened during the last 140 kyr. Applying method 4 to the deeper section of the EDC core confirms that the ice flow is complex and can help to improve our reconstruction of the thinning function and thus, of the EDC age scale. We confirm that method 1 overestimates the glacial Δdepth at EDC and we suggest that it is due to an overestimation of the glacial lock-in depth (LID) by the firn densification model. In contrast, we find that method 1 very likely underestimates Δdepth during Termination II, due either to an underestimated thinning function or to an underestimated LID. Finally, method 2 gives estimates within a few metres of methods 3 and 4 during the last deglacial warming, suggesting that the convective zone at Dome C cannot have been very large at this time, if it existed at all.

Description: The relative roles of CO 2 and palaeogeography in determining late Miocene climate: results from a terrestrial model–data comparison Climate of the Past, 8, 1257-1285, 2012 Author(s): C. D. Bradshaw, D. J. Lunt, R. Flecker, U. Salzmann, M. J. Pound, A. M. Haywood, and J. T. Eronen The late Miocene palaeorecord provides evidence for a warmer and wetter climate than that of today, and there is uncertainty in the palaeo-CO 2 record of at least 200 ppm. We present results from fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations for the late Miocene that examine the relative roles of palaeogeography (topography and ice sheet geometry) and CO 2 concentration in the determination of late Miocene climate through comprehensive terrestrial model-data comparisons. Assuming that these data accurately reflect the late Miocene climate, and that the late Miocene palaeogeographic reconstruction used in the model is robust, then results indicate that: 1. Both palaeogeography and atmospheric CO 2 contribute to the proxy-derived precipitation differences between the late Miocene and modern reference climates. However these contributions exibit synergy and so do not add linearly. 2. The vast majority of the proxy-derived temperature differences between the late Miocene and modern reference climates can only be accounted for if we assume a palaeo-CO 2 concentration towards the higher end of the range of estimates.

Description: Modelling large-scale ice-sheet–climate interactions following glacial inception Climate of the Past, 8, 1565-1580, 2012 Author(s): J. M. Gregory, O. J. H. Browne, A. J. Payne, J. K. Ridley, and I. C. Rutt We have coupled the FAMOUS global AOGCM (atmosphere-ocean general circulation model) to the Glimmer thermomechanical ice-sheet model in order to study the development of ice-sheets in north-east America (Laurentia) and north-west Europe (Fennoscandia) following glacial inception. This first use of a coupled AOGCM–ice-sheet model for a study of change on long palæoclimate timescales is made possible by the low computational cost of FAMOUS, despite its inclusion of physical parameterisations similar in complexity to higher-resolution AOGCMs. With the orbital forcing of 115 ka BP, FAMOUS–Glimmer produces ice caps on the Canadian Arctic islands, on the north-west coast of Hudson Bay and in southern Scandinavia, which grow to occupy the Keewatin region of the Canadian mainland and all of Fennoscandia over 50 ka. Their growth is eventually halted by increasing coastal ice discharge. The expansion of the ice-sheets influences the regional climate, which becomes cooler, reducing the ablation, and ice accumulates in places that initially do not have positive surface mass balance. The results suggest the possibility that the glaciation of north-east America could have begun on the Canadian Arctic islands, producing a regional climate change that caused or enhanced the growth of ice on the mainland. The increase in albedo (due to snow and ice cover) is the dominant feedback on the area of the ice-sheets and acts rapidly, whereas the feedback of topography on SMB does not become significant for several centuries, but eventually has a large effect on the thickening of the ice-sheets. These two positive feedbacks are mutually reinforcing. In addition, the change in topography perturbs the tropospheric circulation, producing some reduction of cloud, and mitigating the local cooling along the margin of the Laurentide ice-sheet. Our experiments demonstrate the importance and complexity of the interactions between ice-sheets and local climate.

Description: Isotopic and lithologic variations of one precisely-dated stalagmite across the Medieval/LIA period from Heilong Cave, central China Climate of the Past, 8, 1541-1550, 2012 Author(s): Y. F. Cui, Y. J. Wang, H. Cheng, K. Zhao, and X. G. Kong Lithologic and isotopic changes of one stalagmite (224 mm in length) from Heilong Cave, Central China, are investigated here in order to explore multiple proxies of monsoon climate. High uranium concentrations (6–10 ppm) ensure Th-230 dates precisely and resultant chronology ranges from ~790 to 1780 AD across the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to Little Ice Age (LIA). Annually resolved oxygen and carbon isotopic data, gray level and elemental Sr are highly related to macroscopic lithologic changes. A lamination sequence is composed of alternations of white-porous and dark-compact calcite clearly discerned on the polished surface. The dark-compact laminae have low values of gray level, high Sr and δ 13 C values, indicating periods of low growth rate under dry climate conditions, and vice versa for the white-porous laminae. This suggests that changes in hydrology, matter input of drip water and crystallization process were controlled by cave environments and climates. The alternation of dry and wet periods with a significant periodicity of ~90 yr, as indicated by spectral analyses of the multiple proxies, is further supported by a reconstructed precipitation index from historical documents and instrumental data extending back to 1470 AD. A strong coherence between monsoon proxy of calcite δ 18 O and the other proxies was observed during the LIA but not during the MWP. This is likely due to changes in atmospheric circulation pattern at the boundary of MWP/LIA. When the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifted southward during the LIA, summer monsoon precipitation at the cave site was probably dominated by the Mei-Yu, resulting in water vapor mainly originated from adjacent oceanic sources.

Description: Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations Climate of the Past, 8, 1551-1563, 2012 Author(s): P. Brohan, R. Allan, E. Freeman, D. Wheeler, C. Wilkinson, and F. Williamson The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores, etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations. As the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East India Company (EEIC), and their archives have been preserved in the British Library. Inspection of those archives revealed 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure, and subjective estimates of wind speed and direction, from voyages across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans between 1789 and 1834. Those records have been extracted and digitised, providing 273 000 new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5 °C). This provides an out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions – supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this – such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

Description: Comparison of 20th century and pre-industrial climate over South America in regional model simulations Climate of the Past, 8, 1599-1620, 2012 Author(s): S. Wagner, I. Fast, and F. Kaspar In this study, we assess how the anthropogenically induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations affects the climate of central and southern South America. We utilise two regional climate simulations for present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI) times. These simulations are compared to historical reconstructions in order to investigate the driving processes responsible for climatic changes between the different periods. The regional climate model is validated against observations for both re-analysis data and GCM-driven regional simulations for the second half of the 20th century. Model biases are also taken into account for the interpretation of the model results. The added value of the regional simulation over global-scale modelling relates to a better representation of hydrological processes that are particularly evident in the proximity of the Andes Mountains. Climatic differences between the simulated PD minus PI period agree qualitatively well with proxy-based temperature reconstructions, albeit the regional model overestimates the amplitude of the temperature increase. For precipitation the most important changes between the PD and PI simulation relate to a dipole pattern along the Andes Mountains with increased precipitation over the southern parts and reduced precipitation over the central parts. Here only a few regions show robust similarity with studies based on empirical evidence. However, from a dynamical point-of-view, atmospheric circulation changes related to an increase in high-latitude zonal wind speed simulated by the regional climate model are consistent with numerical modelling studies addressing changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results indicate that besides the direct effect of greenhouse gas changes, large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures also exert an influence on temperature and precipitation changes in southern South America. These combined changes in turn affect the relationship between climate and atmospheric circulation between PD and PI times and should be considered for the statistical reconstruction of climate indices calibrated within present-day climate data.

Description: Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series Climate of the Past, 8, 1637-1648, 2012 Author(s): M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, and D. Scholz A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ 18 O) from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka). We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1) block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation) of the δ 18 O residuals and (2) timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam). The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka), with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ 18 O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

Description: Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD) Climate of the Past, 8, 751-764, 2012 Author(s): M. Génova The study of pointer years of numerous tree-ring chronologies of the central Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Guadarrama) could provide complementary information about climate variability over the last 405 yr. In total, 64 pointer years have been identified: 30 negative (representing minimum growths) and 34 positive (representing maximum growths), the most significant of these being 1601, 1963 and 1996 for the negative ones, and 1734 and 1737 for the positive ones. Given that summer precipitation was found to be the most limiting factor for the growth of Pinus in the Sierra de Guadarrama in the second half of the 20th century, it is also an explanatory factor in almost 50% of the extreme growths. Furthermore, these pointer years and intervals are not evenly distributed throughout time. Both in the first half of the 17th and in the second half of 20th, they were more frequent and more extreme and these periods are the most notable for the frequency of negative pointer years in Central Spain. The interval 1600–1602 is of special significance, being one of the most unfavourable for tree growth in the centre of Spain, with 1601 representing the minimum index in the regional chronology. We infer that this special minimum annual increase was the effect of the eruption of Huaynaputina, which occurred in Peru at the beginning of 1600 AD. This is the first time that the effects of this eruption in the tree-ring records of Southern Europe have been demonstrated.

Description: Interpreting last glacial to Holocene dust changes at Talos Dome (East Antarctica): implications for atmospheric variations from regional to hemispheric scales Climate of the Past, 8, 741-750, 2012 Author(s): S. Albani, B. Delmonte, V. Maggi, C. Baroni, J.-R. Petit, B. Stenni, C. Mazzola, and M. Frezzotti Central East Antarctic ice cores preserve stratigraphic records of mineral dust originating from remote sources in the Southern Hemisphere, and represent useful indicators of climatic variations on glacial-interglacial time scales. The peripheries of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, where ice-free areas with the potential to emit dust exist, have been less explored from this point of view. Here, we present a new profile of dust deposition flux and grain size distributions from an ice core drilled at Talos Dome (TALDICE, Northern Victoria Land, East Antarctica), where there is a significant input of dust from proximal Antarctic ice-free areas. We analyze dust and stable water isotopes variations from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Late Holocene, and compare them to the EPICA Dome C profiles from central East Antarctica. The smaller glacial-interglacial variations at Talos Dome compared to Dome C and a distinctive decreasing trend during the Holocene characterize the TALDICE dust profile. By deciphering the composite dust signal from both remote and local sources, we show the potential of this combined proxy of source activity and atmospheric transport to give information on both regional and larger spatial scales. In particular, we show how a regional signal, which we relate to the deglaciation history of the Ross Sea embayment, can be superimposed to the broader scale glacial-interglacial variability that characterizes other Antarctic sites.

Description: Palynological evidence for gradual vegetation and climate changes during the African Humid Period termination at 13°N from a Mega-Lake Chad sedimentary sequence Climate of the Past, 9, 223-241, 2013 Author(s): P. G. C. Amaral, A. Vincens, J. Guiot, G. Buchet, P. Deschamps, J.-C. Doumnang, and F. Sylvestre Located at the transition between the Saharan and Sahelian zones, at the center of one of the largest endorheic basins, Lake Chad is ideally located to record regional environmental changes that occurred in the past. However, until now, no Holocene archive was directly cored in this lake. In this paper, we present pollen data from the first sedimentary sequence collected in Lake Chad (13° N; 14° E; Sahel region). Dated between ca. 6700 and ca. 5000 cal yr BP, this record is continuous and encompasses part of the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP). Vegetation reconstructions are based on standard analyses of pollen diagrams and are strengthened by quantitative approaches. Potential biomes are reconstructed using the biomization method and mean annual precipitation ( P ann ) is estimated using the modern analogues technique. Results show that, between ca. 6700 and ca. 6050 cal yr BP, a vegetation close to humid woodland or humid savanna, including elements currently found further southward, thrived in the vicinity of the Mega-Lake Chad in place of the modern dry woodland, steppe and desert vegetation. At the same time, montane forest populations extended further southward on the Adamawa Plateau. The high abundance of lowland humid pollen taxa, particularly of Uapaca , is interpreted as the result of a northward migration of the corresponding plants during the AHP. This preferential zonal occurrence of these taxa in Lake Chad Basin (LCB) (rather than extrazonal) is driven by more humid local and regional climate conditions at this latitude, as shown by mean P ann estimated values of ca. 800 (−400/+700) mm during this period. However, we cannot rule out that an increase of the Chari–Logone inputs into the Mega-Lake Chad might have also contributed to control the abundance of these taxa. Changes in the structure and floristic composition of the vegetation towards more open and drier formations occurred after ca. 6050 cal yr BP, following a decrease in mean P ann estimates to approximately 600 (−230/+600) mm. But, the constant significant presence of lowland humid taxa until ca. 5000 cal yr BP, contemporaneous with a slight increase in steppic taxa, demonstrates that at this date, the modern vegetation was not yet established in the vicinity of Lake Chad. Our data indicate that between ca. 6700 and ca. 5000 cal yr BP vegetation and climate changes must have occurred progressively, but that century-scale climate variability was superimposed on this long-term mid-Holocene drying trend as observed around ca. 6300 cal yr BP, where pollen data indicate more humid conditions.

Description: What could have caused pre-industrial biomass burning emissions to exceed current rates? Climate of the Past, 9, 289-306, 2013 Author(s): G. R. van der Werf, W. Peters, T. T. van Leeuwen, and L. Giglio Recent studies based on trace gas mixing ratios in ice cores and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning emissions over the past millennium exceeded contemporary emissions by up to a factor of 4 for certain time periods. This is surprising because various sources of biomass burning are linked with population density, which has increased over the past centuries. We have analysed how emissions from several landscape biomass burning sources could have fluctuated to yield emissions that are in correspondence with recent results based on ice core mixing ratios of carbon monoxide (CO) and its isotopic signature measured at South Pole station (SPO). Based on estimates of contemporary landscape fire emissions and the TM5 chemical transport model driven by present-day atmospheric transport and OH concentrations, we found that CO mixing ratios at SPO are more sensitive to emissions from South America and Australia than from Africa, and are relatively insensitive to emissions from the Northern Hemisphere. We then explored how various landscape biomass burning sources may have varied over the past centuries and what the resulting emissions and corresponding CO mixing ratio at SPO would be, using population density variations to reconstruct sources driven by humans (e.g., fuelwood burning) and a new model to relate savanna emissions to changes in fire return times. We found that to match the observed ice core CO data, all savannas in the Southern Hemisphere had to burn annually, or bi-annually in combination with deforestation and slash and burn agriculture exceeding current levels, despite much lower population densities and lack of machinery to aid the deforestation process. While possible, these scenarios are unlikely and in conflict with current literature. However, we do show the large potential for increased emissions from savannas in a pre-industrial world. This is mainly because in the past, fuel beds were probably less fragmented compared to the current situation; satellite data indicates that the majority of savannas have not burned in the past 10 yr, even in Africa, which is considered "the burning continent". Although we have not considered increased charcoal burning or changes in OH concentrations as potential causes for the elevated CO concentrations found at SPO, it is unlikely they can explain the large increase found in the CO concentrations in ice core data. Confirmation of the CO ice core data would therefore call for radical new thinking about causes of variable global fire rates over recent centuries.

Description: High-temperature thermomagnetic properties of vivianite nodules, Lake El'gygytgyn, Northeast Russia Climate of the Past, 9, 433-446, 2013 Author(s): P. S. Minyuk, T. V. Subbotnikova, L. L. Brown, and K. J. Murdock Vivianite, a hydrated iron phosphate, is abundant in sediments of Lake El'gygytgyn, located in the Anadyr Mountains of central Chukotka, northeastern Russia (67°30′ N, 172°05′ E). Magnetic measurements, including mass-specific low-field AC magnetic susceptibility, field-dependent magnetic susceptibility, hysteresis parameters, temperature dependence of the induced magnetization, as well as susceptibility in different heating media, provide ample information on vivianite nodules. Electron microprobe analyses, electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy were used to identify diagnostic minerals. Vivianite nodules are abundant in both sediments of cold (anoxic) and warm (oxic) stages. Magnetic susceptibility of the nodules varies from 0.78 × 10 −6 m 3 kg −1 to 1.72 × 10 −6 m 3 kg −1 (average = 1.05 × 10 −6 m 3 kg −1 ) and is higher than the susceptibility of sediments from the cold intervals. Magnetic properties of vivianite are due to the respective product of oxidation as well as sediment and mineral inclusions. Three types of curves for high-temperature dependent susceptibility of vivianite indicate different degrees of oxidation and inclusions in the nodules. Vivianite acts as a reductant and reduces hematite to magnetite and masks the goethite–hematite transition during heating. Heating vivianite and sulfur mixtures stimulates the formation of monoclinic pyrrhotite. An additive of arsenic inhibits the formation of magnetite prior to its Curie temperature. Heating selective vivianite and pyrite mixtures leads to formation of several different minerals – magnetite, monoclinic pyrrhotite, and hexagonal pyrrhotite, and makes it difficult to interpret the thermomagnetic curves.

Description: Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Climate of the Past, 9, 191-209, 2013 Author(s): A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO 2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

Description: Response of methane emissions from wetlands to the Last Glacial Maximum and an idealized Dansgaard–Oeschger climate event: insights from two models of different complexity Climate of the Past, 9, 149-171, 2013 Author(s): B. Ringeval, P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. Ramstein, A. J. Dolman, and M. Kageyama The role of different sources and sinks of CH 4 in changes in atmospheric methane ([CH 4 ]) concentration during the last 100 000 yr is still not fully understood. In particular, the magnitude of the change in wetland CH 4 emissions at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to the pre-industrial period (PI), as well as during abrupt climatic warming or Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events of the last glacial period, is largely unconstrained. In the present study, we aim to understand the uncertainties related to the parameterization of the wetland CH 4 emission models relevant to these time periods by using two wetland models of different complexity (SDGVM and ORCHIDEE). These models have been forced by identical climate fields from low-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (FAMOUS) simulations of these time periods. Both emission models simulate a large decrease in emissions during LGM in comparison to PI consistent with ice core observations and previous modelling studies. The global reduction is much larger in ORCHIDEE than in SDGVM (respectively −67 and −46%), and whilst the differences can be partially explained by different model sensitivities to temperature, the major reason for spatial differences between the models is the inclusion of freezing of soil water in ORCHIDEE and the resultant impact on methanogenesis substrate availability in boreal regions. Besides, a sensitivity test performed with ORCHIDEE in which the methanogenesis substrate sensitivity to the precipitations is modified to be more realistic gives a LGM reduction of −36%. The range of the global LGM decrease is still prone to uncertainty, and here we underline its sensitivity to different process parameterizations. Over the course of an idealized D–O warming, the magnitude of the change in wetland CH 4 emissions simulated by the two models at global scale is very similar at around 15 Tg yr −1 , but this is only around 25% of the ice-core measured changes in [CH 4 ]. The two models do show regional differences in emission sensitivity to climate with much larger magnitudes of northern and southern tropical anomalies in ORCHIDEE. However, the simulated northern and southern tropical anomalies partially compensate each other in both models limiting the net flux change. Future work may need to consider the inclusion of more detailed wetland processes (e.g. linked to permafrost or tropical floodplains), other non-wetland CH 4 sources or different patterns of D–O climate change in order to be able to reconcile emission estimates with the ice-core data for rapid CH 4 events.

Description: Tephrostratigraphic studies on a sediment core from Lake Prespa in the Balkans Climate of the Past, 9, 267-287, 2013 Author(s): M. Damaschke, R. Sulpizio, G. Zanchetta, B. Wagner, A. Böhm, N. Nowaczyk, J. Rethemeyer, and A. Hilgers A detailed tephrostratigraphic record, which dates back to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5b (ca. 91 kyr), has been established from a 17.76 m long core (Co1215) from Lake Prespa (Macedonia, Albania and Greece). A total of eleven tephra and cryptotephra layers (PT0915-1 to PT0915-11) were identified, using XRF scanning, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and macro- and microscopic inspection of the sediments. The major element composition of glass shards and/or micro-pumice fragments indicates that the tephras and cryptotephras originate from the explosive volcanism of Italy. Eight tephra and cryptotephra layers were correlated with specific volcanic eruptions: the AD 512 eruption of Somma-Vesuvius (1438 cal yr BP), the Mercato eruption of Somma-Vesuvius (8890 ± 90 cal yr BP), the Tufi Biancastri/LN1-LN2 eruption of the Campi Flegrei (14 749 ± 523 cal yr BP and 15 551 ± 621 cal yr BP), the SMP1-e/Y-3 eruption of the Campi Flegrei (30 000–31 000 cal yr BP), the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y-5 eruption of the Campi Flegrei (39 280 ± 110 cal yr BP), the SMP1-a event of Ischia Island (around 44 000 cal yr BP) and the Green Tuff/Y-6 eruption of Pantelleria Island (around 45 000 cal yr BP). One tephra could be attributed to the volcanic activity of Mount Etna, but probably represents an unknown eruption at ca. 60 000 cal yr BP. Cryptotephras PT0915-6 and PT0915-10 remain unclassified so far, but according to the presented age-depth model these would have been deposited around 35 000 and 48 500 cal yr BP, respectively. Some of the tephras and cryptotephras are recognised for the first time in the Balkan region. The tephrostratigraphic work provides important information about ash dispersal and explosion patterns of source volcanoes and can be used to correlate and date geographically distant paleoenvironmental and archaeological archives in the central Mediterranean region. Moreover, the tephrostratigraphic work in combination with radiocarbon and electron spin resonance (ESR) dating is a precondition for paleoclimatic reconstructions inferred from the sediment succession Co1215.

Description: Tree-ring–based summer mean temperature variations in the Adamello–Presanella Group (Italian Central Alps), 1610–2008 AD Climate of the Past, 9, 211-221, 2013 Author(s): A. Coppola, G. Leonelli, M. C. Salvatore, M. Pelfini, and C. Baroni Climate records from remote mountain sites and for century-long periods are usually lacking for most continents and also for the European Alps. However, detailed reconstructions of climate parameters for pre-instrumental periods in mountain areas, suffering of glacial retreat caused by recent global warming, are needed in the view of a better comprehension of the environmental dynamics. We present here the first annually-resolved reconstruction of summer (JJA) mean temperature for the Adamello–Presanella Group (Central European Alps), one of the most glaciated mountain groups of the Italian Central Alps. The reconstruction has been based on four larch tree-ring width chronologies derived from living trees sampled in four valleys surrounding the Group. The reconstruction spans from 1610 to 2008 and the statistical verification of the reconstruction demonstrates the positive skill of the tree-ring dataset in tracking summer temperature variability also in the recent period.

Description: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum Climate of the Past, 9, 367-376, 2013 Author(s): J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves Some recent compilations of proxy data both on land and ocean (MARGO Project Members, 2009; Bartlein et al., 2011; Shakun et al., 2012), have provided a new opportunity for an improved assessment of the overall climatic state of the Last Glacial Maximum. In this paper, we combine these proxy data with the ensemble of structurally diverse state of the art climate models which participated in the PMIP2 project (Braconnot et al., 2007) to generate a spatially complete reconstruction of surface air (and sea surface) temperatures. We test a variety of approaches, and show that multiple linear regression performs well for this application. Our reconstruction is significantly different to and more accurate than previous approaches and we obtain an estimated global mean cooling of 4.0 ± 0.8 °C (95% CI).

Description: Reconstruction of drip-water δ 18 O based on calcite oxygen and clumped isotopes of speleothems from Bunker Cave (Germany) Climate of the Past, 9, 377-391, 2013 Author(s): T. Kluge, H. P. Affek, T. Marx, W. Aeschbach-Hertig, D. F. C. Riechelmann, D. Scholz, S. Riechelmann, A. Immenhauser, D. K. Richter, J. Fohlmeister, A. Wackerbarth, A. Mangini, and C. Spötl The geochemical signature of many speleothems used for reconstruction of past continental climates is affected by kinetic isotope fractionation. This limits quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction and, in cases where the kinetic fractionation varies with time, also affects relative paleoclimate interpretations. In carbonate archive research, clumped isotope thermometry is typically used as proxy for absolute temperatures. In the case of speleothems, however, clumped isotopes provide a sensitive indicator for disequilibrium effects. The extent of kinetic fractionation co-varies in Δ 47 and δ 18 O so that it can be used to account for disequilibrium in δ 18 O and to extract the past drip-water composition. Here we apply this approach to stalagmites from Bunker Cave (Germany) and calculate drip-water δ 18 O w values for the Eemian, MIS3, and the Holocene, relying on independent temperature estimates and accounting for disequilibrium. Applying the co-variation method to modern calcite precipitates yields drip-water δ 18 O w values in agreement with modern cave drip-water δ 18 O w of −7.9 ± 0.3‰, despite large and variable disequilibrium effects in both calcite δ 18 O c and Δ 47 . Reconstructed paleo-drip-water δ 18 O w values are lower during colder periods (e.g., MIS3: −8.6 ± 0.4‰ and the early Holocene at 11 ka: −9.7 ± 0.2‰) and show higher values during warmer climatic periods (e.g., the Eemian: −7.6 ± 0.2‰ and the Holocene Climatic Optimum: −7.2 ± 0.3‰). This new approach offers a unique possibility for quantitative climate reconstruction including the assessment of past hydrological conditions while accounting for disequilibrium effects.

Description: Proxy benchmarks for intercomparison of 8.2 ka simulations Climate of the Past, 9, 423-432, 2013 Author(s): C. Morrill, D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) now includes the 8.2 ka event as a test of model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing. To provide benchmarks for intercomparison, we compiled and analyzed high-resolution records spanning this event. Two previously-described anomaly patterns that emerge are cooling around the North Atlantic and drier conditions in the Northern Hemisphere tropics. Newer to this compilation are more robustly-defined wetter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics and regionally-limited warming in the Southern Hemisphere. Most anomalies around the globe lasted on the order of 100 to 150 yr. More quantitative reconstructions are now available and indicate cooling of ~ 1 °C and a ~ 20% decrease in precipitation in parts of Europe as well as spatial gradients in δ 18 O from the high to low latitudes. Unresolved questions remain about the seasonality of the climate response to freshwater forcing and the extent to which the bipolar seesaw operated in the early Holocene.

Description: Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium Climate of the Past, 9, 393-421, 2013 Author(s): L. Fernández-Donado, J. F. González-Rouco, C. C. Raible, C. M. Ammann, D. Barriopedro, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, J. Servonnat, D. Swingedouw, S. F. B. Tett, S. Wagner, P. Yiou, and E. Zorita Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Description: Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial period: a modelling study driven and constrained by ice core data Climate of the Past, 9, 353-366, 2013 Author(s): A. Quiquet, C. Ritz, H. J. Punge, and D. Salas y Mélia As pointed out by the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC-AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007), the contribution of the two major ice sheets, Antarctica and Greenland, to global sea level rise, is a subject of key importance for the scientific community. By the end of the next century, a 3–5 °C warming is expected in Greenland. Similar temperatures in this region were reached during the last interglacial (LIG) period, 130–115 ka BP, due to a change in orbital configuration rather than to an anthropogenic forcing. Ice core evidence suggests that the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) survived this warm period, but great uncertainties remain about the total Greenland ice reduction during the LIG. Here we perform long-term simulations of the GIS using an improved ice sheet model. Both the methodologies chosen to reconstruct palaeoclimate and to calibrate the model are strongly based on proxy data. We suggest a relatively low contribution to LIG sea level rise from Greenland melting, ranging from 0.7 to 1.5 m of sea level equivalent, contrasting with previous studies. Our results suggest an important contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to the LIG highstand.

Description: Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system Climate of the Past, 9, 323-333, 2013 Author(s): A. A. Cimatoribus, S. S. Drijfhout, V. Livina, and G. van der Schrier Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the palaeoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system, reconstructing the topology of the multi-dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard–Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets), either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard–Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.

Description: Reconstruction of northeast Asia spring temperature 1784–1990 Climate of the Past, 9, 261-266, 2013 Author(s): M. Ohyama, H. Yonenobu, J.-N. Choi, W.-K. Park, M. Hanzawa, and M. Suzuki We describe a first attempt of wide-area dendroclimatic reconstruction, based upon seven spring temperature-sensitive chronologies from the ring widths of living trees, in Japan and Korea. Mean March–May temperature derived from a gridded land air temperature dataset (CRUTEM4) between 35–40° N and 125–140° E was reconstructed for the period of AD 1784–1990. Of the seven, two Japanese chronologies were eliminated during the calibration trials. The reconstruction accounted for 19.4% of the temperature variance in the calibration period, and is considered to be skillful for estimating interannual-to-interdecadal variations and not for long-term change. This reconstruction showed remarkably similar fluctuations to regional dendroclimatic reconstructions in Japan and Korea, indicating the past spatial coherency of spring temperatures in the region. The reconstruction was validated against other climate proxies. A fairly good agreement was found with cold periods as estimated from documentary records in southeast China and Japan. The west Japan temperature series recovered from instrumental records also showed a reasonable agreement with the reconstruction. On the other hand, the reconstruction did not show clear abrupt depressions after the Laki and the Tambora eruptions. These comparisons revealed that dendroclimatic spatial reconstruction in this area offers a good potential for reconstructing long-term and large-scale past temperature patterns for northeast Asia.

Description: The Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in the eastern Ecuadorian Andes Climate of the Past, 9, 307-321, 2013 Author(s): M.-P. Ledru, V. Jomelli, P. Samaniego, M. Vuille, S. Hidalgo, M. Herrera, and C. Ceron To better characterize the climate variability of the last millennium in the high Andes, we analyzed the pollen content of a 1150-yr-old sediment core collected in a bog located at 3800 m a.s.l. in the páramo in the eastern Cordillera in Ecuador. An upslope convective index based on the ratio between cloud transported pollen from the Andean forest to the bog (T) and Poaceae pollen frequencies, related to the edaphic moisture of the páramo (P), was defined. This index was used to distinguish changes in the atmospheric moisture from the soil moisture content of the páramo and their associated patterns of interdecadal El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and South American summer monsoon (SASM) activity. Results show that between 850 and 1250 AD, the Medieval Climate Anomaly interval was warm and moist with a high transported pollen/Poaceae pollen (T/P) index linked to high ENSO variability and weak SASM activity. Between 1250 and 1550 AD, a dry climate prevailed, characterized by an abrupt decrease in the T/P index and therefore no upslope cloud convection, related to lower ENSO variability and with significant impact on the floristic composition of the páramo. During the Little Ice Age, two phases were observed: first, a wet phase between 1550 and 1750 AD linked to low ENSO variability in the Pacific and warm south equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) favored the return of a wet páramo, and then a cold and dry phase between 1750 and 1800 AD associated with low ENSO variability and weak SASM activity resulted in drying of the páramo. The current warm period marks the beginning of a climate characterized by high convective activity – the highest in the last millennium – and weaker SASM activity modifying the water storage of the páramo. Our results show that the páramo is progressively losing its capacity for water storage and that the interdecadal variability of both tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTs matter for Andean climate patterns, although many teleconnection mechanisms are still poorly understood.

Description: Modern isotope hydrology and controls on δD of plant leaf waxes at Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia Climate of the Past, 9, 335-352, 2013 Author(s): K. M. K. Wilkie, B. Chapligin, H. Meyer, S. Burns, S. Petsch, and J. Brigham-Grette Stable isotope data from lipid biomarkers and diatom silica recovered from lake sediment cores hold great promise for paleoclimate and paleohydrological reconstructions. However, these records rely on accurate calibration with modern precipitation and hydrologic processes and only limited data exist on the controls on the δD values for n -alkanoic acids from plant leaf waxes. Here we investigate the stable isotopic composition of modern precipitation, streams, lake water and ice cover, and use these data to constrain isotope systematics of the Lake El'gygytgyn Basin hydrology. Compound-specific hydrogen isotope ratios determined from n -alkanoic acids from modern vegetation are compared with modern precipitation and lake core top sediments. Multi-species net (apparent) fractionation values between source water (precipitation) and modern vegetation (e.g., ϵ wax/precip mean value is −107 ± 12‰) agree with previous results and suggest a consistent offset between source waters and the δD values of alkanoic acids. We conclude that although there may be some bias towards a winter precipitation signal, overall δD values from leaf wax n -alkanoic acids record annual average precipitation within the El'gygytgyn Basin. A net fractionation calculated for 200-yr-integrated lake sediments yields ϵ 30/precip = −96 ± 8‰ and can provide robust net "apparent" fractionation to be used in future paleohydrological reconstructions.

Description: Does Antarctic glaciation cool the world? Climate of the Past, 9, 173-189, 2013 Author(s): A. Goldner, M. Huber, and R. Caballero In this study, we compare the simulated climatic impact of adding an Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the "greenhouse world" of the Eocene and removing the AIS from the modern world. The modern global mean surface temperature anomaly (Δ T ) induced by Antarctic Glaciation depends on the background CO 2 levels and ranges from −1.22 to −0.18 K. The Eocene Δ T is nearly constant at ~−0.25 K. We calculate an climate sensitivity parameter S [Antarctica] which we define as Δ T divided by the change in effective radiative forcing (Δ Q Antarctica ) which includes some fast feedbacks imposed by prescribing the glacial properties of Antarctica. The main difference between the modern and Eocene responses is that a negative cloud feedback warms much of the Earth's surface as a large AIS is introduced in the Eocene, whereas this cloud feedback is weakly positive and acts in combination with positive sea-ice feedbacks to enhance cooling introduced by adding an ice sheet in the modern. Because of the importance of cloud feedbacks in determining the final temperature sensitivity of the AIS, our results are likely to be model dependent. Nevertheless, these model results suggest that the effective radiative forcing and feedbacks induced by the AIS did not significantly decrease global mean surface temperature across the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT −34.1 to 33.6 Ma) and that other factors like declining atmospheric CO 2 are more important for cooling across the EOT. The results illustrate that the efficacy of AIS forcing in the Eocene is not necessarily close to one and is likely to be model and state dependent. This implies that using EOT paleoclimate proxy data by itself to estimate climate sensitivity for future climate prediction requires climate models and consequently these estimates will have large uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties in modelling low clouds.

Description: Modern sedimentation patterns in Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia, derived from surface sediment and inlet streams samples Climate of the Past, 9, 135-148, 2013 Author(s): V. Wennrich, A. Francke, A. Dehnert, O. Juschus, T. Leipe, C. Vogt, J. Brigham-Grette, P. S. Minyuk, M. Melles, and El'gygytgyn Science Party Lake El'gygytgyn/NE Russia holds a continuous 3.58 Ma sediment record, which is regarded as the most long-lasting climate archive of the terrestrial Arctic. Based on multi-proxy geochemical, mineralogical, and granulometric analyses of surface sediment, inlet stream and bedrock samples, supplemented by statistical methods, major processes influencing the modern sedimentation in the lake were investigated. Grain-size parameters and chemical elements linked to the input of feldspars from acidic bedrock indicate a wind-induced two-cell current system as major driver of sediment transport and accumulation processes in Lake El'gygytgyn. The distribution of mafic rock related elements in the sediment on the lake floor can be traced back to the input of weathering products of basaltic rocks in the catchment. Obvious similarities in the spatial variability of manganese and heavy metals indicate sorption or co-precipitation of these elements with Fe and Mn hydroxides and oxides. But the similar distribution of organic matter and clay contents might also point to a fixation to organic components and clay minerals. An enrichment of mercury in the inlet streams might be indicative of neotectonic activity around the lake. The results of this study add to the fundamental knowledge of the modern lake processes of Lake El'gygytgyn and its lake-catchment interactions, and thus, yield crucial insights for the interpretation of paleo-data from this unique archive.

Description: Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modeling Climate of the Past, 9, 119-133, 2013 Author(s): D. Mottaghy, G. Schwamborn, and V. Rath This study focuses on the temperature field observed in boreholes drilled as part of interdisciplinary scientific campaign targeting the El'gygytgyn Crater Lake in NE Russia. Temperature data are available from two sites: the lake borehole 5011-1 located near the center of the lake reaching 400 m depth, and the land borehole 5011-3 at the rim of the lake, with a depth of 140 m. Constraints on permafrost depth and past climate changes are derived from numerical simulation of the thermal regime associated with the lake-related talik structure. The thermal properties of the subsurface needed for these simulations are based on laboratory measurements of representative cores from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact-affected rock, complemented by further information from geophysical logs and data from published literature. The temperature observations in the lake borehole 5011-1 are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years are available in the 140 m deep land-based borehole 5011-3. The analysis of these observations allows determination of not only the recent mean annual ground surface temperature, but also the ground surface temperature history, though with large uncertainties. Although the depth of this borehole is by far too insufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the Last Glacial Maximum, it still affects the thermal regime, and thus permafrost depth. This effect is constrained by numerical modeling: assuming that the lake borehole observations are hardly influenced by the past changes in surface air temperature, an estimate of steady-state conditions is possible, leading to a meaningful value of 14 ± 5 K for the post-glacial warming. The strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 60 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (up to 4 K), with low temperatures prevailing far into the 20th century. Other mechanisms, like varying porosity, may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modeling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.

Description: A biomarker record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: investigating sources of organic matter and carbon cycling during marine isotope stages 1–3 Climate of the Past, 9, 243-260, 2013 Author(s): A. R. Holland, S. T. Petsch, I. S. Castañeda, K. M. Wilkie, S. J. Burns, and J. Brigham-Grette Arctic paleoenvironmental archives serve as sensitive recorders of past climate change. Lake El'gygytgyn (Far East Russian Arctic) is a high-latitude crater impact lake that contains a continuous sediment record influenced by neither glaciation nor glacial erosion since the time of impact 3.58 Ma ago. Prior research on sediments collected from Lake El'gygytgyn suggest times of permanent ice cover and anoxia corresponding to global glacial intervals, during which the sediments are laminated and are characterized by the co-occurrence of high total organic carbon, microscopic magnetite grains that show etching and dissolution, and negative excursions in bulk sediment organic matter carbon isotope (δ 13 C) values. Here we investigate the abundance and carbon isotopic composition of lipid biomarkers recovered from Lake El'gygytgyn sediments spanning marine isotope stages 1–3 to identify key sources of organic matter (OM) to lake sediments, to establish which OM sources drive the negative δ 13 C excursion exhibited by bulk sediment OM, and to explore if there are molecular and isotopic signatures of anoxia in the lake during glaciation. We find that during marine isotope stages 1–3, direct evidence for water column anoxia is lacking. A ~4‰ negative excursion in bulk sediment δ 13 C values during the Local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM) is accompanied by more protracted, higher magnitude negative excursions in n -alkanoic acid and n -alkanol δ 13 C values that begin 20 kyr in advance of the LLGM. In contrast, n -alkanes and the C 30 n -alkanoic acid do not exhibit a negative δ 13 C excursion at this time. Our results indicate that the C 24 , C 26 and C 28 n -alkanoic acids do not derive entirely from terrestrial OM sources, while the C 30 n -alkanoic acid at Lake El'gygytgyn is a robust indicator of terrestrial OM contributions. Overall, our results strongly support the presence of a nutrient-poor water column, which is mostly isolated from atmospheric carbon dioxide during glaciation at Lake El'gygytgyn.

Description: A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia Climate of the Past, 8, 1309-1321, 2012 Author(s): M. Vuille, S. J. Burns, B. L. Taylor, F. W. Cruz, B. W. Bird, M. B. Abbott, L. C. Kanner, H. Cheng, and V. F. Novello We review the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past ~2000 yr based on high-resolution stable isotope proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments. Our review is complemented by an analysis of an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the past 130 yr. Proxy records from the monsoon belt in the tropical Andes and SE Brazil show a very coherent behavior over the past 2 millennia with significant decadal to multidecadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative δ 18 O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand, the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000-yr historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. Our climatic interpretation of these archives is consistent with our isotope-based GCM analysis, which suggests that these sites are sensitive recorders of large-scale monsoon variations. We hypothesize that these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin). This interpretation is supported by several independent records from different proxy archives and modeling studies. Although ENSO is the main forcing for δ 18 O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, our results suggest that its influence may be significantly modulated by North Atlantic climate variability on longer time scales. Finally, our analyses indicate that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, could complement more traditional proxies such as tree rings or documentary evidence. Future climate reconstruction efforts could potentially benefit from including isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Description: Drastic shrinking of the Hadley circulation during the mid-Cretaceous Supergreenhouse Climate of the Past, 8, 1323-1337, 2012 Author(s): H. Hasegawa, R. Tada, X. Jiang, Y. Suganuma, S. Imsamut, P. Charusiri, N. Ichinnorov, and Y. Khand Understanding the behavior of the global climate system during extremely warm periods is one of the major themes of paleoclimatology. Proxy data demonstrate that the equator-to-pole temperature gradient was much lower during the mid-Cretaceous "supergreenhouse" period than at present, implying larger meridional heat transport by atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation. However, reconstructions of atmospheric circulation during the Cretaceous have been hampered by a lack of appropriate datasets based on reliable proxies. Desert distribution directly reflects the position of the subtropical high-pressure belt, and the prevailing surface-wind pattern preserved in desert deposits reveals the exact position of its divergence axis, which marks the poleward margin of the Hadley circulation. We reconstructed temporal changes in the latitude of the subtropical high-pressure belt and its divergence axis during the Cretaceous based on spatio-temporal changes in the latitudinal distribution of deserts and prevailing surface-wind patterns in the Asian interior. We found a poleward shift in the subtropical high-pressure belt during the early and late Cretaceous, suggesting a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation. In contrast, an equatorward shift of the belt was found during the mid-Cretaceous "supergreenhouse" period, suggesting drastic shrinking of the Hadley circulation. These results, in conjunction with recent observations, suggest the existence of a threshold in atmospheric CO 2 level and/or global temperature, beyond which the Hadley circulation shrinks drastically.

Description: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing Climate of the Past, 8, 1355-1365, 2012 Author(s): A. Hind, A. Moberg, and R. Sundberg The statistical framework of Part 1 (Sundberg et al., 2012), for comparing ensemble simulation surface temperature output with temperature proxy and instrumental records, is implemented in a pseudo-proxy experiment. A set of previously published millennial forced simulations (Max Planck Institute – COSMOS), including both "low" and "high" solar radiative forcing histories together with other important forcings, was used to define "true" target temperatures as well as pseudo-proxy and pseudo-instrumental series. In a global land-only experiment, using annual mean temperatures at a 30-yr time resolution with realistic proxy noise levels, it was found that the low and high solar full-forcing simulations could be distinguished. In an additional experiment, where pseudo-proxies were created to reflect a current set of proxy locations and noise levels, the low and high solar forcing simulations could only be distinguished when the latter served as targets. To improve detectability of the low solar simulations, increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in local temperature proxies was more efficient than increasing the spatial coverage of the proxy network. The experiences gained here will be of guidance when these methods are applied to real proxy and instrumental data, for example when the aim is to distinguish which of the alternative solar forcing histories is most compatible with the observed/reconstructed climate.

Description: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory Climate of the Past, 8, 1339-1353, 2012 Author(s): R. Sundberg, A. Moberg, and A. Hind A statistical framework for comparing the output of ensemble simulations from global climate models with networks of climate proxy and instrumental records has been developed, focusing on near-surface temperatures for the last millennium. This framework includes the formulation of a joint statistical model for proxy data, instrumental data and simulation data, which is used to optimize a quadratic distance measure for ranking climate model simulations. An essential underlying assumption is that the simulations and the proxy/instrumental series have a shared component of variability that is due to temporal changes in external forcing, such as volcanic aerosol load, solar irradiance or greenhouse gas concentrations. Two statistical tests have been formulated. Firstly, a preliminary test establishes whether a significant temporal correlation exists between instrumental/proxy and simulation data. Secondly, the distance measure is expressed in the form of a test statistic of whether a forced simulation is closer to the instrumental/proxy series than unforced simulations. The proposed framework allows any number of proxy locations to be used jointly, with different seasons, record lengths and statistical precision. The goal is to objectively rank several competing climate model simulations (e.g. with alternative model parameterizations or alternative forcing histories) by means of their goodness of fit to the unobservable true past climate variations, as estimated from noisy proxy data and instrumental observations.

Description: Holocene climate variability in north-eastern Italy: potential influence of the NAO and solar activity recorded by speleothem data Climate of the Past, 8, 1367-1383, 2012 Author(s): D. Scholz, S. Frisia, A. Borsato, C. Spötl, J. Fohlmeister, M. Mudelsee, R. Miorandi, and A. Mangini Here we present high-resolution stable isotope and lamina thickness profiles as well as radiocarbon data for the Holocene stalagmite ER 76 from Grotta di Ernesto (north-eastern Italy), which was dated by combined U-series dating and lamina counting. ER 76 grew between 8 ka (thousands of years before 2000 AD) and today, with a hiatus from 2.6 to 0.4 ka. Data from nine meteorological stations in Trentino show a significant influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on winter temperature and precipitation in the cave region. Spectral analysis of the stable isotope signals of ER 76 reveals significant peaks at periods of 110, 60–70, 40–50, 32–37 and around 25 a. Except for the cycle between 32 and 37 a all periodicities have corresponding peaks in power spectra of solar variability, and the 25-a cycle may correspond to NAO variability. This suggests that climate variability in northern Italy was influenced by both solar activity and the NAO during the Holocene. Six periods of warm winter climate in the cave region were identified. These are centred at 7.9, 7.4, 6.5, 5.5, 4.9 and 3.7 ka, and their duration ranges from 100 to 400 a. The two oldest warm phases coincide with the deposition of sapropel S1 in the Mediterranean Sea indicating that the climate in the cave region was influenced by this prominent pluvial phase in the Mediterranean area. For the younger warm phases it is difficult to establish a supra-regional climate pattern, and some of them may, thus, reflect regional climate variability. This highlights the complexity of regional and supra-regional scale Holocene climate patterns.

Description: Modelling and climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías (north Patagonian Andes, Argentina) 1639–2009 AD Climate of the Past, 8, 1385-1402, 2012 Author(s): P. W. Leclercq, P. Pitte, R. H. Giesen, M. H. Masiokas, and J. Oerlemans We explore the climatic information contained in the record of length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías, in the north Patagonian Andes of Argentina. This record is one of the longest and most detailed glacier records in southern South America, starting in 1639. In order to interpret the length variations of Glaciar Frías since the maximum Little Ice Age extent, we use a combination of a simplified surface energy-balance model to calculate the glacier mass balance, and a flowline model to account for the dynamical response of the glacier to changes in the climatic forcing. The overall retreat of the glacier observed over 1639–2009 is best explained by an annual mean temperature increase of 1.2 °C or a decrease in annual precipitation of 34%, most of which would have occurred during the 20th century. The glacier model is also forced with two independent tree-ring and multi-proxy reconstructions of precipitation and temperature. The uncertainties in these reconstructions are rather large, leading to a wide range in the modelled glacier length that includes most of the observations. However, in both reconstructions, the mid-17th century seems to be too cold and the early 19th century too warm to explain the observed glacier lengths with the glacier model forced with the reconstructions. Forcing with reconstructed precipitation and temperature separately shows that the influence of historical variations in precipitation on the glacier fluctuations of Glaciar Frías is smaller than that of the temperature fluctuations. This suggests that the observed 1639–2009 retreat could be best explained by a warming close to 1.2 °C.

Description: An open-access database of grape harvest dates for climate research: data description and quality assessment Climate of the Past, 8, 1403-1418, 2012 Author(s): V. Daux, I. Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, P. Yiou, I. Chuine, E. Garnier, E. Le Roy Ladurie, O. Mestre, and J. Tardaguila We present an open-access dataset of grape harvest dates (GHD) series that has been compiled from international, French and Spanish literature and from unpublished documentary sources from public organizations and from wine-growers. As of June 2011, this GHD dataset comprises 380 series mainly from France (93% of the data) as well as series from Switzerland, Italy, Spain and Luxemburg. The series have variable length (from 1 to 479 data, mean length of 45 data) and contain gaps of variable sizes (mean ratio of observations/series length of 0.74). The longest and most complete ones are from Burgundy, Switzerland, Southern Rhône valley, Jura and Ile-de-France. The most ancient harvest date of the dataset is in 1354 in Burgundy. The GHD series were grouped into 27 regions according to their location, to geomorphological and geological criteria, and to past and present grape varieties. The GHD regional composite series (GHD-RCS) were calculated and compared pairwise to assess their reliability assuming that series close to one another are highly correlated. Most of the pairwise correlations are significant ( p -value 〈 0.001) and strong (mean pairwise correlation coefficient of 0.58). As expected, the correlations tend to be higher when the vineyards are closer. The highest correlation ( R = 0.91) is obtained between the High Loire Valley and the Ile-de-France GHD-RCS. The strong dependence of the vine cycle on temperature and, therefore, the strong link between the harvest dates and the temperature of the growing season was also used to test the quality of the GHD series. The strongest correlations are obtained between the GHD-RCS and the temperature series of the nearest weather stations. Moreover, the GHD-RCS/temperature correlation maps show spatial patterns similar to temperature correlation maps. The stability of the correlations over time is explored. The most striking feature is their generalised deterioration at the late 19th–early 20th century. The possible effects on GHD of the phylloxera crisis, which took place at this time, are discussed. The median of all the standardized GHD-RCS was calculated. The distribution of the extreme years of this general series is not homogenous. Extremely late years all occur during a two-century long time window from the early 17th to the early 19th century, while extremely early years are frequent during the 16th and since the mid-19th century.

Description: Increasing cloud cover in the 20th century: review and new findings in Spain Climate of the Past, 8, 1199-1212, 2012 Author(s): A. Sanchez-Lorenzo, J. Calbó, and M. Wild Visual observations of clouds have been performed since the establishment of meteorological observatories during the early instrumental period, and have become more systematic and reliable after the mid-19th century due to the establishment of the first national weather services. During the last decades a large number of studies have documented the trends of the total cloud cover (TCC) and cloudy types; most of these studies focus on the trends since the second half of the 20th century. Due to the lower reliability of former observations, and the fact that most of this data is not accessible in digital format, there is a lack of studies focusing on the trends of cloudiness since the mid-19th century. In the first part, this work attempts to review previous studies analyzing TCC changes with information covering at least the first half of the 20th century. Then, the study analyses a database of cloudiness observations in Southern Europe (Spain) since the second half of the 19th century. Specifically, monthly TCC series were reconstructed since 1866 by means of a so-called parameter of cloudiness, calculated from the number of cloudless and overcast days. These estimated TCC series show a high interannual and decadal correlation with the observed TCC series originally measured in oktas. After assessing the temporal homogeneity of the estimated TCC series, the mean annual and seasonal series for the whole of Spain and several subregions were calculated. The mean annual TCC shows a general tendency to increase from the beginning of the series until the 1960s; at this point, the trend becomes negative. The linear trend for the annual mean series, estimated over the 1866–2010 period, is a highly remarkable (and statistically significant) increase of +0.44% per decade, which implies an overall increase of more than +6% during the analyzed period. These results are in line with the majority of the trends observed in many areas of the world in previous studies, especially for the records before the 1950s when a widespread increase of TCC can been considered as a common feature.

Description: Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO 2 during the last deglaciation Climate of the Past, 8, 1213-1221, 2012 Author(s): J. B. Pedro, S. O. Rasmussen, and T. D. van Ommen Antarctic ice cores provide clear evidence of a close coupling between variations in Antarctic temperature and the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 during the glacial/interglacial cycles of at least the past 800-thousand years. Precise information on the relative timing of the temperature and CO 2 changes can assist in refining our understanding of the physical processes involved in this coupling. Here, we focus on the last deglaciation, 19 000 to 11 000 yr before present, during which CO 2 concentrations increased by ~80 parts per million by volume and Antarctic temperature increased by ~10 °C. Utilising a recently developed proxy for regional Antarctic temperature, derived from five near-coastal ice cores and two ice core CO 2 records with high dating precision, we show that the increase in CO 2 likely lagged the increase in regional Antarctic temperature by less than 400 yr and that even a short lead of CO 2 over temperature cannot be excluded. This result, consistent for both CO 2 records, implies a faster coupling between temperature and CO 2 than previous estimates, which had permitted up to millennial-scale lags.

Description: Enrichment in 13 C of atmospheric CH 4 during the Younger Dryas termination Climate of the Past, 8, 1177-1197, 2012 Author(s): J. R. Melton, H. Schaefer, and M. J. Whiticar The abrupt warming across the Younger Dryas termination (~11 600 yr before present) was marked by a large increase in the global atmospheric methane mixing ratio. The debate over sources responsible for the rise in methane centers on the roles of global wetlands, marine gas hydrates, and thermokarst lakes. We present a new, higher-precision methane stable carbon isotope ratio (δ 13 CH 4 ) dataset from ice sampled at Påkitsoq, Greenland that shows distinct 13 C-enrichment associated with this rise. We investigate the validity of this finding in face of known anomalous methane concentrations that occur at Påkitsoq. Comparison with previously published datasets to determine the robustness of our results indicates a similar trend in ice from both an Antarctic ice core and previously published Påkitsoq data measured using four different extraction and analytical techniques. The δ 13 CH 4 trend suggests that 13 C-enriched CH 4 sources played an important role in the concentration increase. In a first attempt at quantifying the various contributions from our data, we apply a methane triple mass balance of stable carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios and radiocarbon. The mass balance results suggest biomass burning (42–66% of total methane flux increase) and thermokarst lakes (27–59%) as the dominant contributing sources. Given the high uncertainty and low temporal resolution of the 14 CH 4 dataset used in the triple mass balance, we also performed a mass balance test using just δ 13 C and δD. These results further support biomass burning as a dominant source, but do not allow distinguishing of thermokarst lake contributions from boreal wetlands, aerobic plant methane, or termites. Our results in both mass balance tests do not suggest as large a role for tropical wetlands or marine gas hydrates as commonly proposed.

Description: Changes in the strength and width of the Hadley Circulation since 1871 Climate of the Past, 8, 1169-1175, 2012 Author(s): J. Liu, M. Song, Y. Hu, and X. Ren Recent studies demonstrate that the Hadley Circulation has intensified and expanded for the past three decades, which has important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes in global climate. However, the robustness of this intensification and expansion that should be considered when interpreting long-term changes of the Hadley Circulation is still a matter of debate. It also remains largely unknown how the Hadley Circulation has evolved over longer periods. Here, we present long-term variability of the Hadley Circulation using the 20th Century Reanalysis. It shows a slight strengthening and widening of the Hadley Circulation since the late 1970s, which is not inconsistent with recent assessments. However, over centennial timescales (1871–2008), the Hadley Circulation shows a tendency towards a more intense and narrower state. More importantly, the width of the Hadley Circulation might have not yet completed a life-cycle since 1871. The strength and width of the Hadley Circulation during the late 19th to early 20th century show strong natural variability, exceeding variability that coincides with global warming in recent decades. These findings raise the question of whether the recent change in the Hadley Circulation is primarily attributed to greenhouse warming or to a long-period oscillation of the Hadley Circulation – substantially longer than that observed in previous studies.

Description: Contribution of changes in opal productivity and nutrient distribution in the coastal upwelling systems to Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene climate cooling Climate of the Past, 8, 1435-1445, 2012 Author(s): J. Etourneau, C. Ehlert, M. Frank, P. Martinez, and R. Schneider The global Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene cooling (~3.0–2.0 million years ago – Ma) concurred with extremely high diatom and biogenic opal production in most of the major coastal upwelling regions. This phenomenon was particularly pronounced in the Benguela upwelling system (BUS), off Namibia, where it is known as the Matuyama Diatom Maximum (MDM). Our study focuses on a new diatom silicon isotope (δ 30 Si) record covering the MDM in the BUS. Unexpectedly, the variations in δ 30 Si signal follow biogenic opal content, whereby the highest δ 30 Si values correspond to the highest biogenic opal content. We interpret the higher δ 30 Si values during the MDM as a result of a stronger degree of silicate utilisation in the surface waters caused by high productivity of mat-forming diatom species. This was most likely promoted by weak upwelling intensity dominating the BUS during the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene cooling combined with a large silicate supply derived from a strong Southern Ocean nutrient leakage responding to the expansion of Antarctic ice cover and the resulting stratification of the polar ocean 3.0–2.7 Ma ago. A similar scenario is hypothesized for other major coastal upwelling systems (e.g. off California) during this time interval, suggesting that the efficiency of the biological carbon pump was probably sufficiently enhanced in these regions during the MDM to have significantly increased the transport of atmospheric CO 2 to the deep ocean. In addition, the coeval extension of the area of surface water stratification in both the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific, which decreased CO 2 release to the atmosphere, led to further enhanced atmospheric CO 2 drawn-down and thus contributed significantly to Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene cooling.

Description: Vegetation history of central Chukotka deduced from permafrost paleoenvironmental records of the El'gygytgyn Impact Crater Climate of the Past, 8, 1287-1300, 2012 Author(s): A. A. Andreev, E. Morozova, G. Fedorov, L. Schirrmeister, A. A. Bobrov, F. Kienast, and G. Schwamborn Frozen sediments from three cores bored in the permafrost surrounding the El'gygytgyn Impact Crater Lake have been studied for pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, plant macrofossils and rhizopods. The palynological study of these cores contributes to a higher resolution of time intervals presented in a poor temporal resolution in the lacustrine sediments; namely the Allerød and succeeding periods. Moreover, the permafrost records better reflect local environmental changes, allowing a more reliable reconstruction of the local paleoenvironments. The new data confirm that shrub tundra with dwarf birch, shrub alder and willow dominated the lake surroundings during the Allerød warming. Younger Dryas pollen assemblages reflect abrupt changes to grass-sedge-herb dominated environments reflecting significantly drier and cooler climate. Low shrub tundra with dwarf birch and willow dominate the lake vicinity at the onset of the Holocene. The find of larch seeds indicate its local presence around 11 000 cal yr BP and, thus a northward shift of treeline by about 100 km during the early Holocene thermal optimum. Forest tundra with larch and shrub alder stands grew in the area during the early Holocene. After ca. 3500 cal yr BP similar-to-modern plant communities became common in the lake vicinity.

Description: Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures Climate of the Past, 8, 1059-1066, 2012 Author(s): V. Rath, J. F. González Rouco, and H. Goosse The investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories. However, there are still many open questions concerning the significance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last Glacial Maximum is still present in borehole temperature profiles. It is shown here that this signal also influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries by producing errors in the determination of the steady state geothermal gradient. However, the impact on estimates of past temperature changes is weaker. For deeper boreholes, the curvature of the long-term signal is significant. A correction based on simple assumptions about glacial–interglacial temperature changes shows promising results, improving the extraction of millennial scale signals. The same procedure may help when comparing observed borehole temperature profiles with the results from numerical climate models.

Description: Millennial-length forward models and pseudoproxies of stalagmite δ 18 O: an example from NW Scotland Climate of the Past, 8, 1153-1167, 2012 Author(s): A. Baker, C. Bradley, S. J. Phipps, M. Fischer, I. J. Fairchild, L. Fuller, C. Spötl, and C. Azcurra The stable oxygen isotope parameter δ 18 O remains the most widely utilised speleothem proxy for past climate reconstructions. Uncertainty can be introduced into stalagmite δ 18 O from a number of factors, one of which is the heterogeneity of groundwater flow in karstified aquifers. Here, we present a lumped parameter hydrological model, KarstFor, which is capable of generating monthly simulations of surface water – ground water – stalagmite δ 18 O for more than thousand-year time periods. Using a variety of climate input series, we use this model for the first time to compare observational with modelled (pseudoproxy) stalagmite δ 18 O series for a site at Assynt, NW Scotland, where our knowledge of δ 18 O systematics is relatively well understood. The use of forward modelling allows us to quantify the relative contributions of climate, peat and karst hydrology, and disequilibrium effects in stalagmite δ 18 O, from which we can identify potential stalagmite δ 18 O responses to climate variability. Comparison of the modelled and actual stalagmite δ 18 O for two stalagmites from the site demonstrates that, for the period of overlapping growth, the two series do not correlate with one another, but forward modelling demonstrates that this falls within the range explicable by differences in flow routing to the stalagmites. Pseudoproxy δ 18 O stalagmite series highlight the potential significance of peat hydrology in controlling stalagmite δ 18 O over the last 1000 yr at this site.

Description: Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation? Climate of the Past, 8, 1127-1139, 2012 Author(s): T. M. Lenton, V. N. Livina, V. Dakos, and M. Scheffer There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations, which may be accompanied by increasing variability. Alternatively, short-term stochastic variability in the climate system can trigger abrupt climate changes, without early warning. Previous work has found signals consistent with slowing down during the last deglaciation as a whole, and during the Younger Dryas, but with conflicting results in the run-up to the Bølling-Allerød. Based on this, we hypothesise that a bifurcation point was approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. To test the bifurcation hypothesis, we analysed two different climate proxies in three Greenland ice cores, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the Younger Dryas. Prior to the Bølling warming, there was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic fluctuation. The transition to the warm Bølling-Allerød state was accompanied by a slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability. We suggest that the Bølling warming excited an internal mode of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. However, the return to the Younger Dryas cold state increased climate stability. We find no consistent evidence for slowing down during the Younger Dryas, or in a longer spliced record of the cold climate state before and after the Bølling-Allerød. Therefore, the end of the Younger Dryas may also have been triggered by a stochastic perturbation.

Description: Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data Climate of the Past, 8, 1141-1151, 2012 Author(s): J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves We investigate the identifiability of the climate by limited proxy data. We test a data assimilation approach through perfect model pseudoproxy experiments, using a simple likelihood-based weighting based on the particle filtering process. Our experimental set-up enables us to create a massive 10 000-member ensemble at modest computational cost, thus enabling us to generate statistically robust results. We find that the method works well when data are sparse and imprecise, but in this case the reconstruction has a rather low accuracy as indicated by residual RMS errors. Conversely, when data are relatively plentiful and accurate, the estimate tracks the target closely, at least when considering the hemispheric mean. However, in this case, our prior ensemble size of 10 000 appears to be inadequate to correctly represent the true posterior, and the regional performance is poor. Using correlations to assess performance gives a more encouraging picture, with significant correlations ranging from about 0.3 when data are sparse to values over 0.7 when data are plentiful, but the residual RMS errors are substantial in all cases. Our results imply that caution is required in interpreting climate reconstructions, especially when considering the regional scale, as skill on this basis is markedly lower than on the large scale of hemispheric mean temperature.

Description: A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability Climate of the Past, 8, 1067-1077, 2012 Author(s): J. Frigola, M. Canals, I. Cacho, A. Moreno, F. J. Sierro, J. A. Flores, S. Berné, G. Jouet, B. Dennielou, G. Herrera, C. Pasqual, J. O. Grimalt, M. Galavazi, and R. Schneider Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

Description: Corrigendum to "The oxygen isotopic composition of phytolith assemblages from tropical rainforest soil tops (Queensland, Australia): validation of a new paleoenvironmental tool" published in Clim. Past, 8, 307–324, 2012 Climate of the Past, 8, 1091-1091, 2012 Author(s): A. Alexandre, J. Crespin, F. Sylvestre, C. Sonzogni, and D. W. Hilbert No abstract available.

Description: Sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate to Greenland Ice Sheet melting during the Last Interglacial Climate of the Past, 8, 995-1009, 2012 Author(s): P. Bakker, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, and H. Renssen During the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~130 000 yr BP), part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melted due to a warmer than present-day climate. However, the impact of this melting on the LIG climate in the North Atlantic region is relatively unknown. Using the LOVECLIM Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we have systematically tested the sensitivity of the LIG climate to increased freshwater runoff from the GIS. In addition, experiments have been performed to investigate the impact of an idealized reduction of both surface elevation and extent of the GIS on the LIG climate. Based on changes in the maximum sea-ice cover and the strength of the overturning circulation, three regimes have been identified, which are characterized by a specific pattern of surface temperature change in the North Atlantic region. By comparing the simulated deep ocean circulation with proxy-based reconstructions, the most realistic simulated climate could be discerned. The resulting climate is characterized by a shutdown of deep convection and a subsequent ~4 °C cooling in the Labrador Sea. Furthermore, a cooling of ~1 °C over the North Atlantic Ocean between 40° N and 70° N is seen. The prescribed reduction in surface elevation and extent of the GIS results in a local warming of up to 4 °C and amplifies the freshwater-forced reduction in deep convection and the resultant cooling in the Nordic Seas. A further comparison of simulated summer temperatures with both continental and oceanic proxy records reveals that the partial melting of the GIS during the LIG could have delayed maximum summer temperatures in the western part of the North Atlantic region relative to the insolation maximum.