ALBERT

Description: Imperfect scaling in distributions of radar-derived rainfall fields Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11385-11422, 2013 Author(s): M. J. van den Berg, L. Delobbe, and N. E. C. Verhoest Fine scale rainfall observations for modeling exercises are often not available, but rather coarser data derived from a variety of sources are used. Effectively using these data sources in models often requires the probability distribution of the data at the applicable scale. Although numerous models for scaling distributions exist, these are often based on theoretical developments, rather than on data. In this study, we develop a model based on the α-stable distribution of rainfall fields, and tested on 5 min radar data from a Belgian weather radar. We use these data to estimate functions that describe parameters of the distribution over various scales. Moreover, we study how the mean of the distribution and the intermittency change with scale, and validate and design functions to describe the shape parameter of the distribution. This information was combined into an effective model of the distribution. Finally, the model was fitted to data from numerous storms, and the resulting parameters were compared to investigate the change in scaling behavior through time.

Description: Spatially resolved information on karst conduit flow from in-cave dye-tracing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11311-11335, 2013 Author(s): U. Lauber, W. Ufrecht, and N. Goldscheider Artificial tracers are powerful tools to investigate karst systems. Tracers are commonly injected into sinking streams or dolines, while springs serve as monitoring sites. The obtained flow and transport parameters represent mixed information from the vadose, epiphreatic and phreatic zones, i.e., the aquifer remains a black box. Accessible active caves constitute valuable but underexploited natural laboratories to gain detailed insights into the hydrologic functioning of the aquifer. Two multi-tracer tests in the catchment of a major karst spring (Blautopf, Germany) with injections and monitoring in two associated water caves aimed at obtaining spatially and temporally resolved information on groundwater flow in different compartments of the system. Two tracers were injected in the caves to characterize the hydraulic connections between them and with the spring. Two injections at the land surface, far from the spring, aimed at resolving the aquifer's internal drainage structure. Tracer breakthrough curves were monitored by field fluorimeters in caves and at the spring. Results demonstrate the dendritic drainage structure of the aquifer. It was possible to obtain relevant flow and transport parameters for different sections of this system. The highest mean flow velocities (275 m h −1 ) were observed in the near-spring epiphreatic section (open-channel flow), while velocities in the phreatic zone (pressurized flow) were one order of magnitude lower. Determined conduit water volumes confirm results of water balances and hydrograph analyses. In conclusion, experiments and monitoring in caves can deliver spatially resolved information on karst aquifer heterogeneity and dynamics that cannot be obtained by traditional investigative methods.

Description: On the lack of robustness of hydrologic models regarding water balance simulation – a diagnostic approach on 20 mountainous catchments using three models of increasing complexity Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11337-11383, 2013 Author(s): L. Coron, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, M. Bourqui, and F. Hendrickx This paper investigates the robustness of rainfall–runoff models when their parameters are transferred in time. More specifically, we studied their ability to simulate water balance on periods with different hydroclimatic characteristics. The testing procedure consisted in a series of parameter transfers between 10-yr periods and the systematic analysis of mean-volume errors. This procedure was applied to three conceptual models of different structural complexity over 20 mountainous catchments in southern France. The results showed that robustness problems are common. Errors on 10-yr-mean flows were significant for all three models and calibration periods, even when the entire record was used for calibration. Various graphical and numerical tools were used to show strong similarities between the shapes of mean flow biases calculated on a 10-yr-long sliding window when various parameter sets are used. Unexpected behavioural similarities were observed between the three models tested, considering their large differences in structural complexity. While the actual causes for robustness problems in these models remain unclear, this work stresses the limited transferability in time of the water balance adjustments made through parameter optimization. Although absolute differences between simulations obtained with different calibrated parameter sets were sometimes substantial, relative differences in simulated mean flows between time periods remained similar regardless of the calibrated parameter sets.

Description: Antecedent flow conditions and nitrate concentrations in the Mississippi River Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11451-11484, 2013 Author(s): J. C. Murphy, R. M. Hirsch, and L. A. Sprague The influence of antecedent flow conditions on nitrate concentrations was explored at eight sites in the Mississippi River Basin, USA. Antecedent moisture conditions have been shown to influence nutrient export from small, relatively homogenous basins, but this influence has not been observed at a regional or continental scale. Antecedent flow conditions were quantified as the ratio between the mean daily flow of the previous year and the mean daily flow from the period of record ( Q ratio), and the Q ratio was statistically related to nitrate anomalies (the unexplained variability in nitrate concentration after filtering out season, long-term trend, and contemporaneous flow effects) at each site. Nitrate anomaly and Q ratio were negatively related at three of the four major tributary sites and upstream in the Mississippi River, indicating that when the previous year was drier than average, at these sites, nitrate concentrations were higher than expected. The strength of these relationships increased when data were subdivided by contemporaneous flow conditions. Five of the eight sites had significant negative relationships ( p ≤ 0.05) at high or moderately high contemporaneous flows, suggesting nitrate that accumulates in these basins during a drought is flushed during subsequent storm events. At half of the sites, when flow during the previous year was 50% drier than average, nitrate concentration can be from 9 and 27% higher than nitrate concentrations that follow a year with average daily flow. Conversely, nitrate concentration can be from 8 and 21% lower than expected when the previous year was 50% wetter than average. These relationships between nitrate concentration and Q ratio serve as the basis for future studies that can better define specific hydrologic processes occurring during and after a drought, which influence nitrate concentration, such as the duration or magnitude of low flows, and the timing of low and high flows.

Description: Contribution of snow and glacier melt to discharge for highly glacierised catchments in Norway Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11485-11517, 2013 Author(s): M. Engelhardt, T. V. Schuler, and L. M. Andreassen Glacierised catchments significantly alter the streamflow regime due to snow and glacier meltwater contribution to discharge. In this study, we modelled the mass balance and discharge rates for three highly glacierised catchments (〉50% glacier cover) in western Norway over the period 1961–2012. The spatial pattern of the catchments follows a gradient in climate continentality from west to east. The model uses gridded temperature and precipitation values from seNorge ( http://senorge.no ) as input which are available at a daily resolution. It accounts for accumulation of snow, transformation of snow to firn and ice, evaporation and melt. The model was calibrated for each catchment based on measurements of seasonal glacier mass-balances and daily discharge rates. For validation, daily melt rates were compared with measurements from sonic rangers located in the ablation zones of two of the glaciers and an uncertainty analysis was performed for the third catchment. The discharge contributions from snowmelt, glacier melt and rain were analysed with respect to spatial variations and temporal evolution. The model simulations reveal an increase of the relative contribution from glacier melt for the three catchments from less than 10% in the early 1990s to 15–30% in the late 2000s. The decline in precipitation by 10–20% in the same period was therefore overcompensated resulting in an increase of the annual discharge by 5–20%. Annual discharge sums and annual glacier melt are strongest correlated with annual and winter precipitation at the most maritime glacier and, with increased climate continentality, variations in both glacier melt contribution and annual discharge are becoming stronger correlated with variations in summer temperatures.

Description: Bias correction can modify climate model-simulated precipitation changes without adverse affect on the ensemble mean Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11585-11611, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer and D. W. Pierce When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated trends. This has important implications when the precipitation will be used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. We use daily precipitation output from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) over the conterminous United States interpolated to a common 1° grid, and gridded observations aggregated to the same scale, to compare precipitation differences before and after quantile mapping bias correction. The change in seasonal mean (winter, DJF, and summer, JJA) precipitation between different 30-yr historical periods is compared to examine (1) the consensus among GCMs as to whether the bias correction tends to amplify or diminish their simulated precipitation trends, and (2) whether the modification of the change in precipitation tends to improve or degrade the correspondence to observed changes in precipitation for the same periods. In some cases, for a particular GCM, the trend modification can be as large as the original simulated change, though the areas where this occurs varies among GCMs so the ensemble median shows smaller trend modification. In specific locations and seasons the trend modification by quantile mapping improves correspondence with observed trends, and in others it degrades it. In the majority of the domain the ensemble median is for little effect on the correspondence of simulated precipitation trends with observed. This highlights the need to use an ensemble of GCMs rather than relying on a small number of models to estimate impacts.

Description: The effect of training image and secondary data integration with multiple-point geostatistics in groundwater modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11829-11860, 2013 Author(s): X. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, and K. H. Jensen Multiple-point geostatistic simulation (MPS) has recently become popular in stochastic hydrogeology, primarily because of its capability to derive multivariate distributions from the training image (TI). However, its application in three dimensional simulations has been constrained by the difficulty of constructing 3-D TI. The object-based TiGenerator may be a useful tool in this regard; yet the sensitivity of model predictions to the training image has not been documented. Another issue in MPS is the integration of multiple geophysical data. The best way to retrieve and incorporate information from high resolution geophysical data is still under discussion. This work shows that TI from TiGenerator delivers acceptable results when used for groundwater modeling, although the TI directly converted from high resolution geophysical data leads to better simulation. The model results also indicate that soft conditioning in MPS is a convenient and efficient way of integrating secondary data such as 3-D airborne electromagnetic data, but over conditioning has to be avoided.

Description: Multi-decadal river flows variations in France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11861-11900, 2013 Author(s): J. Boé and F. Habets In this article, multi-decadal variations in French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based on long observed series, it is shown that river flows in France generally exhibit large multi-decadal variations on the historical period, especially in spring. Differences of means between two 21 yr periods of the 20th century as large as 40% are indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring river flows variations are associated with variations in spring precipitation and temperature. These multi-decadal variations in precipitation are themselves found to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, more precisely by a multi-decadal oscillation in a sea level pressure dipole between western Europe and the East Atlantic. It is suggested that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the main mode of decadal variability in the North Atlantic/Europe sector, controls those variations in large-scale circulation and is therefore the main ultimate driver of multi-decadal variations in spring river flows. Multi-decadal variations in river flows in other seasons, and in particular summer, are also noted. As they are not associated with significant surface climate anomalies (i.e. temperature, precipitation) in summer, other mechanisms are investigated based on hydrological simulations. The impact of climate variations in spring on summer soil moisture, and the impact of soil moisture in summer on the runoff to precipitation ratio, could potentially play a role in multi-decadal summer river flows variations. The large amplitude of the multi-decadal variations in French river flows suggests that internal variability may play a very important role in the evolution of river flows during the next decades, potentially temporarily limiting, reversing or seriously aggravating the long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Description: Teleconnection analysis of runoff and soil moisture over the Pearl River basin in South China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11943-11982, 2013 Author(s): J. Niu, J. Chen, and B. Sivakumar This study explores the teleconnection of two climatic patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is used to simulate the daily hydrological processes over the basin for the study period 1952–2000, and then, using the simulation results, the time series of the monthly runoff and soil moisture anomalies for its ten sub-basins are aggregated. Wavelet analysis is performed to explore the variability properties of these time series at 49 timescales ranging from 2 months to 9 yr. Use of wavelet coherence and rank correlation method reveals that the dominant variabilities of the time series of runoff and soil moisture are basically correlated with IOD. The influences of ENSO on the terrestrial hydrological processes are mainly found in the eastern sub-basins. The teleconnections between climatic patterns and hydrological variability also serve as a reference basis for inferences on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events (e.g. floods and droughts).

Description: Hydrological functions of sinkholes and characteristics of point recharge in groundwater basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11423-11449, 2013 Author(s): N. Somaratne, K. Smettem, J. Lawson, K. Nguyen, and J. Frizenschaf Karstic limestone aquifers are hydrologically and hydrochemically extremely heterogeneous and point source recharge via sinkholes and fissures is a common feature. We studied three groundwater systems in karstic settings dominated by point source recharge in order to assess the relative contributions to total recharge from point sources using chloride and δ 18 O relations. Preferential groundwater flows were observed through an inter-connected network of highly conductive zones with groundwater mixing along flow paths. Measurements of salinity and chloride indicated that fresh water pockets exist at point recharge locations. A measurable fresh water plume develops only when a large quantity of surface water enters the aquifer as a point recharge source. The difference in chloride concentrations in diffuse and point recharge zones decreases as aquifer saturated thickness increases and the plumes become diluted through mixing. The chloride concentration in point recharge fluxes crossing the watertable plane can remain at or near surface runoff chloride concentrations, rather than in equilibrium with groundwater chloride. In such circumstances the conventional chloride mass balance method that assumes equilibrium of recharge water chloride with groundwater requires modification to include both point and diffuse recharge mechanisms.

Description: Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River Basin using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11559-11584, 2013 Author(s): X. Chen, Z. Hao, N. Devineni, and U. Lall A Hierarchal Bayesian model for forecasting regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead using exogenous climate variables for East Central China is presented. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multilevel structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multivariate normal distribution results in partial-pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include Receiver Operating Characteristic, Reduction of Error, Coefficient of Efficiency, Rank Probability Skill Scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies.

Description: A spatial bootstrap technique for parameter estimation of rainfall annual maxima distribution Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11755-11794, 2013 Author(s): F. Uboldi, A. N. Sulis, C. Lussana, M. Cislaghi, and M. Russo Estimation of extreme event distributions and depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves is achieved at any target site by repeated sampling among all available raingauge data in the surrounding area. The estimate is computed over a gridded domain in Northern Italy, using precipitation time series from 1929 to 2011, including data from historical analog stations and from the present-day automatic observational network. The presented local regionalisation naturally overcomes traditional station-point methods, with their demand of long historical series and their sensitivity to very rare events occurring at very few stations, possibly causing unrealistic spatial gradients in DDF relations. At the same time, the presented approach allows for spatial dependence, necessary in a geographical domain such as Lombardy, complex for both its topography and its climatology. The bootstrap technique enables evaluating uncertainty maps for all estimated parameters and for rainfall depths at assigned return periods.

Description: Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11643-11710, 2013 Author(s): R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno During the first Hymex campaign (5 September–6 November 2012) referred to as Special Observation Period (SOP-1), dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in Western Mediterranean, three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were activated: Liguria-Tuscany, North-Eastern Italy and Central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models has allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen the strict collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper, an overview of the Italian organization during the SOP-1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12–13 September 2012) in North-Eastern Italy, IOP13 (15–16 October 2012) in Central Italy and IOP19 (3–5 November 2012) in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems. Moreover, using one of the three events, the usefulness of different operational chains is highlighted.

Description: Correcting basin-scale snowfall in a mountainous basin using a distributed snowmelt model and remote sensing data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11711-11753, 2013 Author(s): M. Shrestha, L. Wang, T. Koike, H. Tsutsui, Y. Xue, and Y. Hirabayashi Adequate estimation of the spatial distribution of snowfall is critical in hydrologic modeling. However, this is a well-known problem in estimating basin-scale snowfall, especially in mountainous basins with data scarcity. This study focuses on correction and estimation of this spatial distribution, which considers topographic effects within the basin. A method is proposed that optimizes an altitude-based snowfall correction factor ( C fsnow ). This is done through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed, multilayer energy and water balance-based snowmelt model (WEB-DHM-S) with observed discharge and remotely sensed snow cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The Shuffled Complex Evolution – University of Arizona automatic search algorithm is used to obtain the optimal value of C fsnow for minimum cumulative error in discharge and snow cover simulations. Discharge error is quantified by Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and relative volume deviation, and snow cover error was estimated by pixel-by-pixel analysis. The study region is the heavily snow-fed Yagisawa Basin of the Upper Tone River in northeast Japan. First, the system was applied to one snow season (2002–2003), obtaining an optimized C fsnow of 0.0007 m −1 . For validation purposes, the optimized C fsnow was implemented to correct snowfall in 2004, 2002 and 2001. Overall, the system was effective, implying improvements in correlation of simulated vs. observed discharge and snow cover. The 4 yr mean of basin-average snowfall for the corrected spatial snowfall distribution was 1160 mm (780 mm before correction). Execution of sensitivity runs against other model input and parameters indicated that C fsnow could be affected by uncertainty in shortwave radiation and setting of the threshold air temperature parameter. Our approach is suitable to correct snowfall and estimate its distribution in poorly-gauged basins, where elevation dependence of snowfall amount is strong.

Description: Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11795-11828, 2013 Author(s): L. Yang, F. Tian, Y. Sun, X. Yuan, and H. Hu Hindcasts based on the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach are carried out in a typical rainfall-dominated basin in China, aiming to examine the roles of initial condition (IC), future atmospheric forcing (FC) and hydrologic model uncertainty (MU) in the streamflow forecast skill. The combined effects of IC and FC are explored within the framework of a forecast window. By implementing virtual numerical simulations without the consideration of MU, it is found that the dominance of IC could last up to 90 days in dry season, while its impact gives way to FC for lead times exceeding 30 days in the wet season. The combined effects of IC and FC on the forecast skill are further investigated by proposing a dimensionless parameter ( β ) that represents the ratio of the total amount of initial water storage and the incoming rainfall. The forecast skill increases exponentially with β , and varies greatly in different forecast windows. Moreover, the influence of MU on forecast skill is examined by focusing on the uncertainty of model parameters. Two different hydrologic model calibration strategies are carried out. The results indicate that the uncertainty of model parameters exhibits a more significant influence on the forecast skill in the dry season than in the wet season. The ESP approach is more skillful in monthly streamflow forecast during the transition period from wet to dry than otherwise. For the transition period from dry to wet, the low skill of the forecasts could be attributed to the combined effects of IC and FC, but less to the biases in the hydrologic model parameters. For the forecasting in dry season, the usefulness of the ESP approach is heavily dependent on the strategy of the model calibration.

Description: A conceptual model of check dam hydraulics for gully control Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11901-11941, 2013 Author(s): C. Castillo, R. Pérez, and J. A. Gómez There is little information in scientific literature regarding the modifications induced by check dam systems in flow regimes in restored gully reaches, despite it being a crucial issue for the design of conservation measures. Here, we develop a conceptual model to classify flow regimes in straight rectangular channels for initial and dam-filling conditions as well as a method of estimating efficiency in order to provide guidelines for optimal design. The model integrates several previous mathematical approaches for assessing the main processes involved (hydraulic jump HJ, impact flow, gradually varied flows). Its performance was compared with the simulations obtained from IBER, a bi-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The impact of check dam spacing (defined by the geometric factor of influence c ) on efficiency was explored. Eleven main classifications of flow regimes were identified depending on the element and level of influence. The model produced similar results when compared with IBER, but led to higher estimations of HJ and impact lengths. Total influence guaranteed maximum efficiency and HJ control defining the location of the optimal c . Geometric total influence ( c = 1) was a valid criterion for the different stages of the structures in a wide range of situations provided that hydraulic roughness conditions remained high within the gully, e.g. through revegetation. Our total influence criterion involved shorter spacing than that habitually recommended in technical manuals for restoration, but was in line with those values found in spontaneous and stable step-pools systems, which might serve as a reference for man-made interventions.

Description: Senstitivity of water balance components to environmental changes in a mountainous watershed: uncertainty assessment based on models comparison Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11983-12026, 2013 Author(s): E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Zabalza, K. Rahman, A. Gago-Silva, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Vicente-Serrano, A. Lehmann, C. L. Tague, and M. Beniston This paper evaluates the response of stream flow and other components of the water balance to changes in climate and land-use in a Pyrenean watershed. It further provides a measure of uncertainty in water resources forecasts by comparing the performance of two hydrological models: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Regional Climate Model outputs for the 2021–2050 time-frame, and hypothetical (but plausible) land-use scenarios considering re-vegetation and wildfire processes were used as inputs to the models. Results indicate an overall decrease in river flows when the scenarios are considered, except for the post-fire vegetation scenario, in which stream flows are simulated to increase. However the magnitude of these projections varies between the two models used, as SWAT tends to produce larger hydrological changes under climate change scenarios, and RHESSys shows more sensitivity to changes in land-cover. The final prediction will therefore depend largely on the combination of the land-use and climate scenarios, and on the model utilized.

Description: Hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment of Western Australia: a projection of rainfall-runoff for future water resources planning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12027-12076, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Islam, M. A. Bari, and A. H. M. F. Anwar Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across South West Western Australia (SWWA) has drawn attention about climate change impact on water resources and its availability in this region. In this paper, hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment in SWWA is investigated using multi-model ensemble approach. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias corrected rainfall data from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3% with respect to observed past (1961–1980) and resulting runoff reduction was found 14%. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall part compared to the low rainfall part. Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected resulting significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed through plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for observed and projected period. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.

Description: Upscaling of evapotranspiration fluxes from instantaneous to daytime scales for thermal remote sensing applications Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7325-7350, 2013 Author(s): C. Cammalleri, M. C. Anderson, and W. P. Kustas Four upscaling methods for estimating daytime evapotranspiration (ET) from single time-of-day snapshots, as commonly retrieved using remote sensing, were compared. These methods are based on the assumption of self-preservation of the ratio between ET and a given reference variable over the daytime hours. The analysis was performed using eddy covariance data collected at 12 AmeriFlux towers, sampling a fairly wide range in climatic and land cover conditions. The choice of energy budget closure method significantly impacted performance using different scaling methodologies. Therefore, a statistical evaluation approach was adopted to better account for the inherent uncertainty in ET fluxes using eddy covariance technique. Overall, this approach suggests that at-surface solar radiation is the most robust reference variable amongst those tested, due to high accuracy of upscaled fluxes and absence of systematic biases. Top-of-atmosphere irradiance was also tested and proved to be reliable under near clear-sky conditions, but tended to overestimate the observed daytime ET during cloudy days. Use of reference ET as a scaling flux did not perform as well as the solar radiation method, but similarly had errors with little seasonal dependency. Finally, the commonly-used evaporative fraction method yielded satisfactory results only in summer months, July and August, and tended to underestimate the observations in the fall/winter seasons from November to January at the flux sites studied.

Description: Global isoscapes for δ 18 O and δ 2 H in precipitation: improved prediction using regionalized climatic regression models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7351-7393, 2013 Author(s): S. Terzer, L. I. Wassenaar, L. J. Araguás-Araguás, and P. K. Aggarwal A Regionalized Climatic Water Isotope Prediction (RCWIP) approach, based on the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), was demonstrated for the purposes of predicting point- and large-scale spatiotemporal patterns of the stable isotope compositions of water (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) in precipitation around the world. Unlike earlier global domain and fixed regressor models, RCWIP pre-defined thirty-six climatic cluster domains, and tested all model combinations from an array of climatic and spatial regressor variables to obtain the best predictive approach to each cluster domain, as indicated by RMSE and variogram analysis. Fuzzy membership fractions were thereafter used as the weights to seamlessly amalgamate results of the optimized climatic zone prediction models into a single predictive mapping product, such as global or regional amount-weighted mean annual, mean monthly or growing-season δ 18 O/δ 2 H in precipitation. Comparative tests revealed the RCWIP approach outperformed classical global-fixed regression-interpolation based models more than 67% of the time, and significantly improved upon predictive accuracy and precision. All RCWIP isotope mapping products are available as gridded GeoTIFF files from the IAEA website ( www.iaea.org/water ) and are for use in hydrology, climatology, food authenticity, ecology, and forensics.

Description: Water displacement by sewer infrastructure in the Grote Nete catchment, Belgium, and its hydrological regime effects Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7425-7467, 2013 Author(s): D. Vrebos, T. Vansteenkiste, J. Staes, P. Willems, and P. Meire Urbanization and especially impervious areas, in combination with wastewater treatment infrastructure, can exert several pressures on the hydrological cycle. These pressures were studied for the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium (8.18% impervious area and 3.89% effective impervious area), based on a combination of empirical and model-based approaches. The effective impervious area, combined with the extent of the wastewater collection regions which do not coincide with the natural catchment boundaries, was used as an indicator for the urbanization pressure. Our study revealed changes in the total upstream areas of the subcatchments between −16% and +3%, and in upstream impervious areas between −99% and +64%. These changes lead to important inter-catchment water transfers. Based on simulations with a physically-based and spatially-distributed hydrological catchment model, profound impacts of effective impervious area on infiltration and runoff were found. The model results show that the changes in impervious areas and related water displacements in and between catchments due to the installation of the wastewater treatment infrastructure severely impacted low flows, peak flows and seasonal trends. They moreover show that it is difficult, but of utmost importance, to incorporate these pressures and artificial processes in an accurate way during the development of hydrological models for urbanized catchments.

Description: Virtual water trade and development in Africa Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7291-7324, 2013 Author(s): M. Konar and K. Caylor A debate has long existed on the relationships between human population, natural resources, and development. Recent research has expanded this debate to include the impacts of trade; specifically, virtual water trade, or the water footprint of traded commodities. We conduct an empirical analysis of the relationships between virtual water trade, population, and development in Africa. We find that increases in virtual water imports do not lead to increases in population growth nor do they diminish human welfare. We establish a new index of virtual water trade openness and show that levels of undernourishment tend to fall with increased values of virtual water trade openness. Countries with small dam storage capacity obtain a higher fraction of their agricultural water requirements from external sources, which may indicate implicit "infrastructure sharing" across nations. Globally, increased crop exports tends to correlate with increased crop water use efficiency, though this relationship does not hold for Africa. However, internal African trade is much more efficient in terms of embodied water resources than any other region in the world. Thus, internal African trade patterns may be compensating for poor internal production systems.

Description: An interdisciplinary swat ecohydrological model to define catchment-scale hydrologic partitioning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7235-7290, 2013 Author(s): C. L. Shope, G. R. Maharjan, J. Tenhunen, B. Seo, K. Kim, J. Riley, S. Arnhold, T. Koellner, Y. S. Ok, S. Peiffer, B. Kim, J.-H. Park, and B. Huwe Land use and climate change have long been implicated in modifying ecosystem services, such as water quality and water yield, biodiversity, and agricultural production. To account for future effects on ecosystem services, the integration of physical, biological, economic, and social data over several scales must be implemented to assess the effects on natural resource availability and use. Our objective is to assess the capability of the SWAT model to capture short-duration monsoonal rainfall-runoff processes in complex mountainous terrain under rapid, event-driven processes in a monsoonal environment. To accomplish this, we developed a unique quality-control gap-filling algorithm for interpolation of high frequency meteorological data. We used a novel multi-location, multi-optimization calibration technique to improve estimations of catchment-wide hydrologic partitioning. We calibrated the interdisciplinary model to a combination of statistical, hydrologic, and plant growth metrics. In addition, we used multiple locations of different drainage area, aspect, elevation, and geologic substrata distributed throughout the catchment. Results indicate scale-dependent sensitivity of hydrologic partitioning and substantial influence of engineered features. While our model accurately reproduced observed discharge variability, the addition of hydrologic and plant growth objective functions identified the importance of culverts in catchment-wide flow distribution. The results of this study provide a valuable resource to describe landscape controls and their implication on discharge, sediment transport, and nutrient loading. This study also shows the challenges of applying the SWAT model to complex terrain and extreme environments. By incorporating anthropogenic features into modeling scenarios, we can greatly enhance our understanding of the hydroecological impacts on ecosystem services.

Description: Technical note: Method of Morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4275-4299, 2013 Author(s): J. D. Herman, J. B. Kollat, P. M. Reed, and T. Wagener The increase in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling warrants a corresponding increase in diagnostic methods capable of analyzing complex models with large numbers of parameters. Sobol ' sensitivity analysis has proven to be a valuable tool for diagnostic analyses of hydrologic models. However, for many spatially distributed models, the Sobol ' method requires a prohibitive number of model evaluations to reliably decompose output variance across the full set of parameters. We investigate the potential of the method of Morris, a screening-based sensitivity approach, to provide results sufficiently similar to those of the Sobol ' method at a greatly reduced computational expense. The methods are benchmarked on the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) model over a six-month period in the Blue River Watershed, Oklahoma, USA. The Sobol ' method required over six million model evaluations to ensure reliable sensitivity indices, corresponding to more than 30 000 computing hours and roughly 180 gigabytes of storage space. We find that the method of Morris is able to correctly identify sensitive and insensitive parameters with 300 times fewer model evaluations, requiring only 100 computing hours and 1 gigabyte of storage space. Method of Morris proves to be a promising diagnostic approach for global sensitivity analysis of highly parameterized, spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4515-4536, 2013 Author(s): G. Di Baldassarre, A. Viglione, G. Carr, L. Kuil, J. L. Salinas, and G. Blöschl Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by the society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.

Description: Integration of remote sensing, RUSLE and GIS to model potential soil loss and sediment yield (SY) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4567-4596, 2013 Author(s): H. Kamaludin, T. Lihan, Z. Ali Rahman, M. A. Mustapha, W. M. R. Idris, and S. A. Rahim Land use activities within a basin serve as one of the contributing factors which cause deterioration of river water quality through its potential effect on erosion. Sediment yield in the form of suspended solid in the river water body which is transported to the coastal area occurs as a sign of lowering of the water quality. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine potential soil loss using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and the sediment yield, in the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) environment within selected sub-catchments of Pahang River Basin. RUSLE was used to estimate potential soil losses and sediment yield by utilizing information on rainfall erosivity ( R ) using interpolation of rainfall data, soil erodibility ( K ) using field measurement and soil map, vegetation cover ( C ) using satellite images, topography (LS) using DEM and conservation practices ( P ) using satellite images. The results indicated that the rate of potential soil loss in these sub-catchments ranged from very low to extremely high. The area covered by very low to low potential soil loss was about 99%, whereas moderate to extremely high soil loss potential covered only about 1% of the study area. Sediment yield represented only 1% of the potential soil loss. The sediment yield (SY) value in Pahang River turned out to be higher closer to the river mouth because of the topographic character, climate, vegetation type and density, and land use within the drainage basin.

Description: Probability distributions for explaining hydrological losses in South Australian catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4597-4626, 2013 Author(s): S. H. P. W. Gamage, G. A. Hewa, and S. Beecham The wide variability of hydrological losses in catchments is due to multiple variables that affect the rainfall-runoff process. Accurate estimation of hydrological losses is required for making vital decisions in design applications that are based on design rainfall models and rainfall-runoff models. Using representative single values of losses, despite their wide variability, is common practice, especially in Australian studies. This practice leads to issues such as over or under estimation of design floods. Probability distributions can be used as a better representation of losses. In particular, using joint probability approaches (JPA), probability distributions can be incorporated into hydrological loss parameters in design models. However, lack of understanding of loss distributions limits the benefit of using JPA. The aim of this paper is to identify a probability distribution function that can successfully describe hydrological losses in South Australian (SA) catchments. This paper describes suitable parametric and non-parametric distributions that can successfully describe observed loss data. The goodness-of-fit of the fitted distributions and quantification of the errors associated with quantile estimation are also discussed a two-parameter Gamma distribution was identified as one that successfully described initial loss (IL) data of the selected catchments. Also, a non-parametric standardised distribution of losses that describes both IL and continuing loss (CL) data were identified. The results obtained for the non-parametric methods were compared with similar studies carried out in other parts of Australia and a remarkable degree of consistency was observed. The results will be helpful in improving design flood applications.

Description: Technical Note: Using wavelet analyses on water depth time series to detect glacial influence in high-mountain hydrosystems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4369-4395, 2013 Author(s): S. Cauvy-Fraunié, T. Condom, A. Rabatel, M. Villacis, D. Jacobsen, and O. Dangles Worldwide, the rapid shrinking of glaciers in response to ongoing climate change is currently modifying the glacial meltwater contribution to hydrosystems in glacierized catchments. Assessing the contribution of glacier run-off to stream discharge is therefore of critical importance to evaluate potential impact of glacier retreat on water quality and aquatic biota. This task has challenged both glacier hydrologists and ecologists over the last 20 yr due to both structural and functional complexity of the glacier-stream system interface. Here we propose a new methodological approach based on wavelet analyses on water depth time series to determine the glacial influence in glacierized catchments. We performed water depth measurement using water pressure loggers over ten months in 15 stream sites in two glacier-fed catchments in the Ecuadorian Andes (〉 4000 m). We determined the global wavelet spectrum of each time series and defined the Wavelet Glacier Signal (WGS) as the ratio between the global wavelet power spectrum value at a 24 h-scale and its corresponding significance value. To test the relevance of the WGS we compared it with the percentage of the glacier cover in the catchments, a metric of glacier influence often used in the literature. We then tested whether one month data could be sufficient to reliably determine the glacial influence. As expected we found that the WGS of glacier-fed streams decreased downstream with the increasing of non-glacial tributaries. We also found that the WGS and the percentage of the glacier cover in the catchment were significantly positively correlated and that one month data was sufficient to identify and compare the glacial influence between two sites, provided that the water level time series were acquired over the same period. Furthermore, we found that our method permits to detect glacial signal in supposedly non-glacial sites, thereby evidencing glacial meltwater infiltrations. While we specifically focused on the tropical Andes in this paper, our approach to determine glacier influence would be applicable to temperate and arctic glacierized catchments. The WGS therefore appears as a powerful and cost effective tool to better understand the hydrological links between glaciers and hydrosystems and assess the consequences of rapid glacier melting.

Description: Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of riparian soil morphology in a restored floodplain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4337-4367, 2013 Author(s): B. Fournier, C. Guenat, G. Bullinger-Weber, and E. A. D. Mitchell Floodplains have been intensively altered in industrialized countries, but are now increasingly being restored and it is therefore important to assess the effect of these restoration projects on the aquatic and terrestrial components of ecosystems. Soils are a functionally crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems but are generally overlooked in floodplain restoration assessment. We studied the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of soil morphology in a restored (riverbed widening) river reach along River Thur (Switzerland) using three criteria (soil diversity, dynamism and typicality) and their associated indicators. We hypothesized that these criteria would correctly discriminate the post-restoration changes in soil morphology within the study site, and that these changes correspond to patterns of vascular plant diversity. Soil diversity and dynamism increased five years after the restoration, but typical soils of braided rivers were still missing. Soil typicality and dynamism correlated to vegetation changes. These results suggest a limited success of the project in agreement with evaluations carried out at the same site using other, more resource demanding methods (e.g. soil fauna, fish, ecosystem functioning). Soil morphology provides structural and functional information on floodplain ecosystems and allows predicting broad changes in plant diversity. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of soil morphology represents a cost-efficient ecological indicator that could easily be integrated into rapid assessment protocols of floodplain and river restoration projects.

Description: Space-time kriging extension of precipitation variability at 12 km spacing from tree-ring chronologies and its implications for drought analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4301-4335, 2013 Author(s): F. Biondi Understanding and preparing for future hydroclimatic variability greatly benefits from long (i.e., multi-century) records at seasonal to annual time steps that have been gridded at km-scale spatial intervals over a geographic region. Kriging is a geostatistical technique commonly used for optimal interpolation of environmental data, and space-time geostatistical models can improve kriging estimates when long temporal sequences of observations exist at relatively few points on the landscape. Here I present how a network of 22 tree-ring chronologies from single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) in the central Great Basin of North America was used to extend hydroclimatic records both temporally and spatially. First, the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC) method was used to reconstruct October–May total precipitation anomalies at each tree-ring site, as these ecotonal environments at the lower forest border are typically moisture limited. Individual site reconstructions were then combined using a hierarchical model of spatio-temporal kriging that produced annual anomaly maps on a 12 × 12 km grid during the period in common among all chronologies (1650–1976). Hydro-climatic episodes were numerically identified and modeled using their duration, magnitude, and peak. Spatial patterns were more variable during wet years than during dry years, and the evolution of drought episodes over space and time could be visualized and quantified. The most remarkable episode in the entire reconstruction was the early 1900s pluvial, followed by the late 1800s drought. The 1930s "Dust Bowl" drought was among the top ten hydroclimatic episodes in the past few centuries. These results directly address the needs of water and natural resource managers with respect to planning for "worst case" scenarios of drought duration and magnitude at the watershed level. For instance, it is possible to analyze which geographical areas are more likely to be impacted by severe and sustained droughts at annual or multiannual timescales and at spatial resolutions commonly used by regional climate models.

Description: Optimising predictor domains for spatially coherent precipitation downscaling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4015-4061, 2013 Author(s): S. Radanovics, J.-P. Vidal, E. Sauquet, A. Ben Daoud, and G. Bontron Statistical downscaling is widely used to overcome the scale gap between predictors from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models or General Circulation Models (GCMs) and predictands like local precipitation, required for example for medium-term operational forecasts or climate change impact studies. The predictors are considered over a given spatial domain which is rarely optimised with respect to the target predictand location. In this study the geopotential predictor domains used by an analogue downscaling method are optimised for 608 target zones covering France. An extended version of the growing rectangular domain algorithm provides an ensemble of five near-optimum domains for each target zone. All five near-optimum domains are consistently equally skillful based on the Continuous Rank Probability Score. Relevance maps calculated for selected target zones first reveal high skill geopotential regions with specific shapes for locations in south-eastern France compared to the rest of the country. In all cases, the optimised domains tend to include the most relevant area on the relevance maps. The domain centers of the optimised domains are mainly distributed following the geographical location of the target location, but there are apparent differences between the windward and the lee side of mountain ridges. Moreover, domains for target zones located in south-eastern France are centered more east and south than the ones for target locations on the same longitude. The size of the optimised domains tends to be larger in the southeastern part of the country, while domains with a very small meridional extent can be found in a east-west band around 47° N. Sensitivity tests on the archive length for the analogue method show a general robustness except for zones with high interannual variability like in the Cévennes area. Moreover, results appear to be rather unsensitive to the starting point of the optimisation algorithm except for zones located in the transition area north of the zones having optimized domains with a small meridional extent. This study paves the way for defining regions with homogeneous geopotential predictor domains for precipitation downscaling over France.

Description: Opportunities and challenges for the use of scintillometer-based catchment-averaged evapotranspiration estimates as model forcing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 3973-4013, 2013 Author(s): B. Samain and V. R. N. Pauwels To date, lumped rainfall-runoff models rely on rough estimates of catchment-averaged potential evapotranspiration (ET p ) rates as meteorological forcing. A model parameter converts this ET p input into actual evapotranspiration (ET act ) estimates. This paper examines the potential use of scintillometer-based ET act rates for rainfall-runoff modeling. It has been found that the reservoir-structure of the rainfall-runoff model functions as a low-pass filter for the ET p input. If the long-term volume of the ET p used in the model simulations is consistent with the data set used for calibration, a good match of the seasonal pattern, using temporally constant ET p data, is sufficient to obtain adequate discharge simulations. However, these results are then obtained with strongly erroneous evapotranspiration estimates. A better match of the diurnal cycle does not lead to better model results. Replacing the ET p inputs by scintillometer-based ET act estimates does not lead to better model predictions. Small underestimations of ET act under stable conditions, which occur at night and during the Winter, and which accumulate to significant amounts, are the cause of this problem. Consistent with other studies, the scintillometer-based ET act estimates can be considered reliable and realistic under unstable conditions. These values can thus be used as forcing for rainfall-runoff models.

Description: Temporal stability of soil moisture patterns measured by proximal ground-penetrating radar Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4063-4097, 2013 Author(s): J. Minet, N. E. C. Verhoest, S. Lambot, and M. Vanclooster We analyzed the temporal stability of soil moisture patterns acquired using a proximal ground-penetrating radar (GPR) in a 2.5 ha agricultural field at five different dates over three weeks. The GPR system was mounted on a mobile platform, allowing for real-time mapping of soil moisture with a high spatial resolution (2–5 m). The spatio-temporal soil moisture patterns were in accordance with the meteorological data and with soil moisture measurements from soil core sampling. Time-stable areas showing the field-average moisture could be revealed by two methods: (1) by the computation of temporal stability indicators based on relative differences of soil moisture to the field-average and (2) by the spatial intersection of the areas showing the field-average. Locations where the mean relative difference was below 0.02 m 3 m −3 extended up to 10% of the field area whereas the intersection of areas showing the field-average within a tolerance of 0.02 m 3 m −3 covered 5% of the field area. Compared to most of the previous studies about temporal stability of soil moisture, time-stable areas and their spatial patterns could be revealed instead of single point locations, owing to the advanced GPR method for real-time mapping. It is believed that determining spatially coherent time-stable areas is more informative rather than determining time-stable points. Other acquisitions over larger time periods would be necessary to assert the robustness of the time-stable areas.

Description: Impacts of tropical cyclones on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4537-4566, 2013 Author(s): C. T. Chang, S. P. Hamburg, J. L. Hwong, N. H. Lin, M. L. Hsueh, M. C. Chen, and T. C. Lin Tropical cyclones (typhoons/hurricanes) have major impacts on the biogeochemistry of forest ecosystems, but the stochastic nature and the long intervals between storms means that there are limited data on their effects. We characterized the impacts of 14 typhoons over six years on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest plantation in Taiwan, a region experiencing frequent typhoons. Typhoons contributed 1/3 of annual rainfall on average, but ranged from 4% to 55%. The stochastic nature of annual typhoon related precipitation poses a challenge with respect to managing the impacts of these extreme events. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that typhoon-related rainfall is not significantly correlated with wind velocity, the current focus of weather forecasts. Thus little advance warning is provided for the hydrological impacts of these storms. The typhoons we studied contributed approximately one third of the annual input and output of most nutrients (except nitrogen) during an average 9.5d yr −1 period, resulting in nutrient input/output rates an order of magnitude greater than during non-typhoon period. Nitrate output balanced input during the non-typhoon period, but during the typhoon period an average of 10 kg ha −1 yr −1 nitrate was lost. Streamwater chemistry exhibited similarly high variability during typhoon and non-typhoon periods and returned to pre-typhoon levels one to three weeks following each typhoon. The streamwater chemistry appears to be very resilient in response to typhoons, resulting in minimal loss of nutrients.

Description: Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11519-11557, 2013 Author(s): A. D. Jayakaran, T. M. Williams, H. Ssegane, D. M. Amatya, B. Song, and C. C. Trettin Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal watersheds in South Carolina in terms of stream flow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow-difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over thirty years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds – a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic shift in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of canopy transpiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

Description: Recent evolution of China's virtual water trade: analysis of selected crops and considerations for policy Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11613-11641, 2013 Author(s): J. Shi, J. Liu, and L. Pinter China has dramatically increased its virtual water import unconsciously for recent years. Many studies have focused on the quantity of traded virtual water but very few go into analysing geographic distribution and the properties of China's virtual water trade network. This paper provides a calculation and analysis of the crop-related virtual water trade network of China based on 27 major primary crops between 1986 and 2009. The results show that China is a net importer of virtual water from water-abundant areas of North and South America, and a net virtual water exporter to water-stressed areas of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Virtual water import is far larger than virtual water export and in both import and export a small number of trade partners control the supply chain. Grain crops are the major contributors to virtual water trade, and among grain crops soybeans, mostly imported from the US, Brazil and Argentina are the most significant. As crop yield and crop water productivity in North and South America are generally higher than those in Asia and Africa, the effect of China's crop-related virtual water trade positively contributes to optimizing crop water use efficiency at the global scale. In order to mitigate water scarcity and secure the food supply, virtual water should be actively incorporated into national water management strategies. From the national perspective, China should reduce the export and increase the import of water-intensive crops. But the sources of virtual water import need to be further diversified to reduce supply chain risks and increase resilience.

Description: Extending periodic eddy covariance latent heat fluxes through tree sapflow measurements to estimate long-term total evaporation in a peat swamp forest Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13607-13661, 2014 Author(s): A. D. Clulow, C. S. Everson, M. G. Mengistu, J. S. Price, A. Nickless, and G. P. W. Jewitt A combination of measurement and modelling was used to find a pragmatic solution to estimate the annual total evaporation (ET) from the rare and indigenous Nkazana Peat Swamp Forest (PSF) on the east coast of Southern Africa to improve the water balance estimates within the area. Total evaporation was measured during three window periods (between seven and nine days each) using an eddy covariance (EC) system on a telescopic mast above the forest canopy. Sapflow of an understory and an emergent tree was measured using a low maintenance heat pulse velocity system for an entire hydrological year (October 2009 to September 2010). An empirical model was derived, describing the relationship between the observed ET of the Nkazana PSF measured during two of the window periods ( R 2 = 0.92 and 0.90) which, overlapped with sapflow measurements, thereby providing hourly estimates of predicted ET of the Nkazana PSF for a year, totalling 1125 mm (while rainfall was 650 mm). In building the empirical model, it was found that including the understory tree sapflow provided no benefit to the model performance. In addition, the observed emergent tree sapflow relationship with observed ET between the two field campaigns was consistent and could be represented by a single empirical model ( R 2 = 0.90; RMSE = 0.08 mm). During the window periods of EC measurement, no single meteorological variable was found to describe the Nkazana PSF ET satisfactorily. However, in terms of evaporation models, the hourly FAO56 Penman–Monteith equation best described the observed ET from EC during the August 2009 ( R 2 = 0.75), November 2009 ( R 2 = 0.85) and March 2010 ( R 2 = 0.76) field campaigns, compared to the Priestley–Taylor model ( R 2 = 0.54, 0.74 and 0.62 during the respective field campaigns). From the empirical model of ET and the FAO56 Penman–Monteith equation, a monthly crop factor ( K c ) was derived for the Nkazana PSF providing a method of estimating long-term swamp forest ET from meteorological data. The monthly crop factor indicated two distinct periods. From February to May, it was between 1.2 and 1.4 compared with June to January, when the crop factor was 0.8 to 1.0. The derived monthly K c values were verified as accurate (to one significant digit) using historical data measured at the same site, also using EC, from a~previous study. The measurements provided insights into the microclimate within a subtropical peat swamp forest and the contrasting sapflow of emergent and understory trees. They showed that expensive, high maintenance equipment can be used during manageable window periods in conjunction with low maintenance systems, dedicated to individual trees, to derive a model to estimate long-term ET over remote heterogeneous forests. In addition, the contrast in ET and rainfall emphasises the reliance of the Nkazana PSF on groundwater.

Description: Dye tracing for investigating flow and transport properties of hydrocarbon-polluted Rabots glaciär, Kebnekaise, Sweden Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13711-13744, 2014 Author(s): C. C. Clason, C. Coch, J. Jarsjö, K. Brugger, P. Jansson, and G. Rosqvist Over 11 000 L of hydrocarbon pollution was deposited on the surface of Rabots glaciär on the Kebnekaise Massif, northern Sweden, following the crash of a Royal Norwegian Air Force aircraft in March 2012. An environmental monitoring programme was subsequently commissioned, including water, snow and ice sampling. The scientific programme further included a series of dye tracing experiments during the 2013 melt season, conducted to investigate flow pathways for pollutants through the glacier hydrological system, and to gain new insight to the internal hydrological system of Rabots glaciär. Results of dye tracing reveal a degree of homogeneity in the topology of the drainage system throughout July and August, with an increase in efficiency as the season progresses, as reflected by decreasing temporary storage and dispersivity. Early onset of melting likely led to formation of an efficient, discrete drainage system early in the melt season, subject to decreasing sinuosity and braiding as the season progressed. Analysis of turbidity-discharge hysteresis further supports the formation of discrete, efficient drainage, with clockwise diurnal hysteresis suggesting easy mobilisation of readily-available sediments in channels. Dye injection immediately downstream of the pollution source zone revealed prolonged storage of dye followed by fast, efficient release. Twinned with a low dye recovery, and supported by sporadic detection of hydrocarbons in the proglacial river, we suggest that meltwater, and thus pollutants in solution, may be released periodically from this zone of the glacier hydrological system. The here identified dynamics of dye storage, dispersion and breakthrough indicate that the ultimate fate and permanence of pollutants in the glacier system is likely to be governed by storage of pollutants in the firn layer and ice mass, or within the internal hydrological system, where it may refreeze. This shows that future studies on the fate of hydrocarbons in pristine, glaciated mountain environments should address the extent to which pollutants in solution act like water molecules or whether they are more susceptible to, for example, refreezing into the surrounding ice, becoming stuck in micro-fractures and pore spaces, or sorption onto subglacial sediments.

Description: Sampling frequency trade-offs in the assessment of mean transit times of tropical montane catchment waters under semi-steady-state conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12443-12488, 2014 Author(s): E. Timbe, D. Windhorst, R. Celleri, L. Timbe, P. Crespo, H.-G. Frede, J. Feyen, and L. Breuer Stream and soil waters were collected on a weekly basis in a tropical montane cloud forest catchment for two years and analyzed for stable water isotopes in order to infer transit time distribution functions and to define the mean transit times. Depending on the water type (stream or soil water), lumped distribution functions such as Exponential-Piston flow, Linear-Piston flow and Gamma models using temporal isotopic variations of precipitation event samples as input, were fitted. Samples were aggregated to daily, weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly time scales in order to check the sensitivity of temporal sampling on model predictions. The study reveals that the effect of decreasing sampling frequency depends on the water type. For soil waters with transit times in the order of weeks to months, there was a clear trend of over prediction. In contrast, the trend of prediction for stream waters, with a dampened isotopic signal and mean transit times in the order of 2 to 4 years, was less clear and depending on the type of model used. The trade-off to coarse data resolutions could potentially lead to misleading conclusions on how water actually moves through the catchment, while at the same time predictions can reach better fitting efficiencies, lesser uncertainties, errors and biases. For both water types an optimal sampling frequency seems to be one or at most two weeks. The results of our analyses provide information for the planning (in particular in terms of cost-benefit and time requirements) of future fieldwork in similar Andean or other catchments.

Description: Quantitative high-resolution observations of soil water dynamics in a complicated architecture with time-lapse Ground-Penetrating Radar Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12365-12404, 2014 Author(s): P. Klenk, S. Jaumann, and K. Roth High-resolution time-lapse Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPR) observations of advancing and retreating water tables can yield a wealth of information about near-surface water content dynamics. In this study, we present and analyze a series of imbibition, drainage and infiltration experiments which have been carried out at our artificial ASSESS test site and observed with surface based GPR. The test site features a complicated but known subsurface architecture constructed with three different kinds of sand. It allows studying soil water dynamics with GPR under a wide range of different conditions. Here, we assess in particular (i) the accurate determination of soil water dynamics averaged over the whole vertical extent by evaluating the bottom reflection and (ii) the feasibility of monitoring the dynamic shape of the capillary fringe reflection. The phenomenology of the GPR response of a dynamically changing capillary fringe is developed from a soil physical point of view. We then explain experimentally observed phenomena based on numerical simulations of both the water content dynamics and the expected GPR response.

Description: Simulating long-term past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin management scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12315-12364, 2014 Author(s): J. Fabre, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, and B. Grouillet The aim of this study was to assess the balance between water demand and availability and its spatial and temporal variability from 1971 to 2009 in the Herault (2500 km 2 , France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2 , Spain) catchments. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. The regulation of river flow was accounted for through a widely applicable demand-driven reservoir management model applied to the largest dam in the Herault basin and to 11 major dams in the Ebro basin. Urban water demand was estimated from population and monthly unit water consumption data. Water demand for irrigation was computed from irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climatic forcing. Finally, a series of indicators comparing water supply and water demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed at a 10 day time step. Variations in water stress in each catchment over the past 40 years were successfully modeled, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic pressures and changes in water management strategies over time. Observed changes in discharge were explained by separating human and hydro-climatic pressures on water resources: respectively 20 and 3% of the decrease in the Ebro and the Herault discharges were linked to human-induced changes. Although key areas of the Herault basin were shown to be highly sensitive to hydro-climatic variability, the balance between water uses and availability in the Ebro basin appears to be more critical, owing to high agricultural pressure on water resources. The proposed modeling framework is currently being used to assess water stress under climatic and socio-economic prospective scenarios. Further research will investigate the effectiveness of adaptation policies aimed at maintaining the balance between water use and availability.

Description: Time-series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of North-Central Portugal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12223-12256, 2014 Author(s): D. Hawtree, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, R. Jacinto, J. Santos, M. E. Rial-Rivas, A.-K. Boulet, F. Tavares-Wahren, and K.-H. Feger The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel–Sen/Mann–Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the nature of the land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, which showed positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by a reversal to negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These changes are attributed to vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to the species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e. promoting water repellency of the topsoil). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

Description: Reply to D. L. Peters' comment on "Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada" by Rasouli et al. (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12257-12270, 2014 Author(s): K. Rasouli, M. A. Hernández-Henríquez, and S. J. Déry This paper provides a reply to a comment from Peters (2014) on our recent effort focused on evaluating changes in streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada. Lake Athabasca experienced a 21.2% decline in streamflow input between 1960 and 2010 that has led to a marked decline in its water levels in recent decades. A reassessment of trends in naturalized Lake Athabasca water levels shows insignificant changes from our previous findings reported in Rasouli et al. (2013), and hence our previous conclusions remain unchanged. The reply closes with recommendations for future research to minimize uncertainties in historical assessments of trends in Lake Athabasca water levels and to better project its future water levels driven by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Athabasca Lake Basin.

Description: Is sinuosity a function of slope and bankfull discharge? – A case study of the meandering rivers in the Pannonian Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12271-12290, 2014 Author(s): J. Petrovszki, G. Timár, and G. Molnár Pre-regulation channel sinuosities of the meandering rivers of the Pannonian Basin are analysed in order to define a mathematical model to estimate the influence of the bankfull discharge and the channel slope on them. As a primary database, data triplets of slope, discharge and sinuosity values were extracted from historical and modern datasets and pre-regulation historical topographic maps. Channel slope values were systematically modified to estimate figures valid before the river regulation works. The bankfull discharges were estimated from the average discharges using a robust yet complex method. The "classical" graphs of Leopold and Wolman (1957), Ackers and Charlton (1970b) and Schumm and Khan (1972) were compiled to a set up a theoretical surface, whose parameters are estimated by the real values of the above database, containing characteristics of the Pannonian Basin rivers. As a result it occurred that there is a two-dimensional function of the bankfull discharges, which provides a good estimation of the most probable sinuosity values of the rivers with the given slope and discharge characteristics. The average RMS error of this estimation is around 15% on this dataset and believed to be the effect of the non-analysed changes in the sediment discharge and size distribution.

Description: Technical Note: Field experiences using UV/VIS sensors for high-resolution monitoring of nitrate in groundwater Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12291-12314, 2014 Author(s): M. Huebsch, F. Grimmeisen, M. Zemann, O. Fenton, K. G. Richards, P. Jordan, A. Sawarieh, P. Blum, and N. Goldscheider Two different in-situ spectrophotometers are compared that were used in the field to determine nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentrations at two distinct spring discharge sites. One sensor was a double wavelength spectrophotometer (DWS) and the other a multiple wavelength spectrophotometer (MWS). The objective of the study was to review the hardware options, determine ease of calibration, accuracy, influence of additional substances and to assess positive and negative aspects of the two sensors as well as troubleshooting and trade-offs. Both sensors are sufficient to monitor highly time-resolved NO 3 -N concentrations in emergent groundwater. However, the chosen path length of the sensors had a significant influence on the sensitivity and the range of detectable NO 3 -N. The accuracy of the calculated NO 3 -N concentrations of the sensors can be affected, if the content of additional substances such as turbidity, organic matter, nitrite or hydrogen carbonate significantly varies after the sensors have been calibrated to a particular water matrix. The MWS offers more possibilities for calibration and error detection, but requires more expertise compared with the DWS.

Description: Complex networks, streamflow, and hydrometric monitoring system design Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13663-13710, 2014 Author(s): M. Halverson and S. Fleming Network theory is applied to an array of streamflow gauges located in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia and Yukon, Canada. The goal of the analysis is to assess whether insights from this branch of mathematical graph theory can be meaningfully applied to hydrometric data, and more specifically, whether it may help guide decisions concerning stream gauge placement so that the full complexity of the regional hydrology is efficiently captured. The streamflow data, when represented as a complex network, has a global clustering coefficient and average shortest path length consistent with small-world networks, which are a class of stable and efficient networks common in nature, but the results did not clearly suggest a scale-free network. Stability helps ensure that the network is robust to the loss of nodes; in the context of a streamflow network, stability is interpreted as insensitivity to station removal at random. Community structure is also evident in the streamflow network. A community detection algorithm identified 10 separate communities, each of which appears to be defined by the combination of its median seasonal flow regime (pluvial, nival, hybrid, or glacial, which in this region in turn mainly reflects basin elevation) and geographic proximity to other communities (reflecting shared or different daily meteorological forcing). Betweenness analyses additionally suggest a handful of key stations which serve as bridges between communities and might therefore be highly valued. We propose that an idealized sampling network should sample high-betweenness stations, as well as small-membership communities which are by definition rare or undersampled relative to other communities, while retaining some degree of redundancy to maintain network robustness.

Description: Monitoring and modelling of soil–plant interactions: the joint use of ERT, sap flow and Eddy Covariance data to characterize the volume of an orange tree root zone Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13353-13384, 2014 Author(s): G. Cassiani, J. Boaga, D. Vanella, M. T. Perri, and S. Consoli Mass and energy exchanges between soil, plants and atmosphere control a number of key environmental processes involving hydrology, biota and climate. The understanding of these exchanges also play a critical role for practical purposes e.g. in precision agriculture. In this paper we present a methodology based on coupling innovative data collection and models in order to obtain quantitative estimates of the key parameters of such complex flow system. In particular we propose the use of hydro-geophysical monitoring via 4-D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) in conjunction with measurements of plant transpiration via sap flow and evapotranspiration from Eddy Covariance (EC). This abundance of data is fed to a spatially distributed soil model in order to characterize the distribution of active roots. We conducted experiments in an orange orchard in Eastern Sicily (Italy), characterized by the typical Mediterranean semi-arid climate. The subsoil dynamics, particularly influenced by irrigation and root uptake, were characterized mainly by the ERT setup, consisting of 48 buried electrodes on 4 instrumented micro boreholes (about 1.2 m deep) placed at the corners of a square (about 1.3 m in side) surrounding the orange tree, plus 24 mini-electrodes on the surface spaced 0.1 m on a square grid. During the monitoring, we collected repeated ERT and TDR soil moisture measurements, soil water samples, sap flow measurements from the orange tree and EC data. We conducted a laboratory calibration of the soil electrical properties as a function of moisture content and pore water electrical conductivity. Irrigation, precipitation, sap flow and ET data are available allowing knowledge of the system's long term forcing conditions on the system. This information was used to calibrate a 1-D Richards' equation model representing the dynamics of the volume monitored via 3-D ERT. Information on the soil hydraulic properties was collected from laboratory and field experiments. The successful results of the calibrated modeling exercise allow the quantification of the soil volume interested by root water uptake. This volume is much smaller (with a surface area less than 2 m 2 , and about 40 cm thickness) than expected and assumed in the design of classical drip irrigation schemes that prove to be losing at least half of the irrigated water that is not uptaken by the plants.

Description: Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5701-5732, 2011 Author(s): J. E. Horn and T. Harter Onsite wastewater treatment systems such as septic systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25–30 % of households are served by a septic system and a private drinking water well. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. Particularly in areas with small lots, thus a high septic system density, these typically shallow wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Typically, mass balance approaches are used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of the aquifer. In this study, we estimate the probability of a well pumping partially septic system leachate. A detailed groundwater and transport model is used to calculate the capture zone of a typical drinking water well. A spatial probability analysis is performed to assess the probability that a capture zone overlaps with a septic system drainfield depending on aquifer properties, lot and drainfield size. We show that a high septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We conclude that mass balances calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances which experience limited attenuation, and those being harmful even in low concentrations.

Description: Use of ENVISAT ASAR Global Monitoring Mode to complement optical data in the mapping of rapid broad-scale flooding in Pakistan Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5769-5809, 2011 Author(s): D. O'Grady, M. Leblanc, and D. Gillieson Envisat ASAR Global Monitoring Mode (GM) data are used to produce maps of the extent of the flooding in Pakistan which are made available to the rapid response effort within 24 h of acquisition. The high temporal frequency and independence of the data from cloud-free skies makes GM data a viable tool for mapping flood waters during those periods where optical satellite data is unavailable, which may be crucial to rapid response disaster planning, where thousands of lives are affected. Image differencing techniques are used, with pre-flood baseline image backscatter values being deducted from target values to eliminate regions with a permanent flood-like radar response due to volume scattering and attenuation, and to highlight the low response caused by specular reflection by open flood water. The effect of local incidence angle on the received signal is mitigated by ensuring that the deducted image is acquired from the same orbit track as the target image. Poor separability of the water class with land in areas beyond the river channels is tackled using a region-growing algorithm which seeks threshold-conformance from seed pixels at the center of the river channels. The resultant mapped extents are tested against MODIS SWIR data where available, with encouraging results.

Description: Soil weathering rates in 21 catchments of the Canadian Shield Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5743-5768, 2011 Author(s): D. Houle, P. Lamoureux, N. Bélanger, M. Bouchard, C. Gagnon, S. Couture, and A. Bouffard Soil mineral weathering represents an essential source of nutrient base cation (Ca, Mg and K) for forest growth in addition to provide a buffering power against precipitation acidity for soils and surface waters. Weathering rates of base cations were obtained for 21 catchments located within the temperate and the boreal forest of the Canadian Shield with the geochemical model PROFILE. Weathering rates ranged from 0.58 to 4.46 kmol c ha −1 yr −1 and their spatial variation within the studied area was mostly in agreement with spatial variations in soil mineralogy. Weathering rates of Ca and Mg were significantly correlated ( r = 0.80 and 0.64) with their respective lake concentrations. Weathering rates of K and Na did not correlate with lake concentrations of K and Na. The modeled weathering rates for each catchment were also compared with estimations of net catchment exportations. The result show that modeled weathering rates of Ca were not significantly different than the net catchment exportations while modeled weathering rates of Mg were higher by 51 %. Larger differences were observed for K and Na weathering rates that were significantly different than net catchment exportations being 6.9 and 2.2 times higher than net exportations, respectively. The results for K were expected given its high reactivity with biotic compartments and suggest that most of the K produced by weathering reactions was retained within soil catchments and/or above ground biomass. This explanation does not apply to Na, however, which is a conservative element in forest ecosystems because of the insignificant needs of Na for soil microorganisms and above ground vegetations. It raises concern about the liability of the PROFILE model to provide reliable values of Na weathering rates. Overall, we concluded that the PROFILE model is powerful enough to reproduce spatial geographical gradients in weathering rates for relatively large areas as well as adequately predict absolute weathering rates values for the sum of base cations, Ca and Mg.

Description: The role of catchment classification in rainfall-runoff modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6113-6153, 2011 Author(s): Y. He, A. Bárdossy, and E. Zehe A sound catchment classification scheme is a fundamental step towards improved catchment hydrology science and prediction in ungauged basins. Two categories of catchment classification methods are presented in the paper. The first one is based directly on physiographic properties and climatic conditions over a catchment and regarded as a Linnaean type or natural classification scheme. The second one is based on numerical clustering and regionalization methods and considered as a statistical or arbitrary classification scheme. This paper reviews each category including what has been done since recognition of the intrinsic value of catchment classification, what is being done in the current research, as well as what is to be done in the future.

Description: Infiltration-soil moisture redistribution under natural conditions: experimental evidence as a guideline for realizing simulation models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6199-6225, 2011 Author(s): R. Morbidelli, C. Corradini, C. Saltalippi, A. Flammini, and E. Rossi The evolution in time, t , of the experimental soil moisture vertical profile under natural conditions is investigated in order to address the corresponding simulation modelling. The measurements were conducted in a plot with a bare silty loam soil. The soil water content, θ, was continuously monitored at different depths, z , using a Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) system. For each profile four buriable three-rod waveguides were inserted horizontally at different depths (5, 15, 25 and 35 cm). In addition, we used sensors of air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, evaporation and rain as supports for the application of selected simulation models, as well as for the detection of elements leading to their improvement. The results indicate that, under natural conditions, very different trends of the θ( z , t ) function can be observed in the given fine-textured soil, where the formation of a sealing layer over the parent soil requires an adjustment of the simulation modelling commonly used for hydrological applications. In particular, because of the considerable variations in the shape of the moisture content vertical profile as a function of time, a generalization of the existing models should incorporate a representation of the variability in time of the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost soil. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the observed shape of θ( z ) can be appropriately reproduced by adopting this approach, however the observed rainfall rate and the occurrence of freeze-thaw cycles with high soil moisture contents have to be explicitly incorporated.

Description: Sand box experiments to evaluate the influence of subsurface temperature probe design on temperature based water flux calculation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6155-6197, 2011 Author(s): M. Munz, S. E. Oswald, and C. Schmidt Quantification of subsurface water fluxes based on the one dimensional solution to the heat transport equation depends on the accuracy of measured subsurface temperatures. The influence of temperature probe setup on the accuracy of vertical water flux calculation was systematically evaluated in this experimental study. Four temperature probe setups were installed into a sand box experiment to measure temporal highly resolved vertical temperature profiles under controlled water fluxes in the range of ±1.3 m d −1 . Pass band filtered time series provided amplitude and phase of the diurnal temperature signal varying with depth depending on water flux. Amplitude ratios of setups directly installed into the saturated sediment significantly varied with sand box hydraulic gradients. Amplitude ratios provided an accurate basis for the analytical calculation of water flow velocities, which matched measured flow velocities. Calculated flow velocities were sensitive to thermal properties of saturated sediment and to probe distance, but insensitive to thermal dispersivity equal to solute dispersivity. Amplitude ratios of temperature probe setups indirectly installed into piezometer pipes were influenced by thermal exchange processes within the pipes and significantly varied with water flux direction only. Temperature time lags of small probe distances of all setups were found to be insensitive to vertical water flux.

Description: The use of LIDAR as a data source for digital elevation models – a study of the relationship between the accuracy of digital elevation models and topographical attributes in northern peatlands Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5497-5522, 2011 Author(s): A. Hasan, P. Pilesjö, and A. Persson It is important to study the factors affecting estimates of wetness since wetness is crucial in climate change studies. The availability of digital elevation models (DEMs) generated with high resolution data is increasing, and their use is expanding. LIDAR earth elevation data have been used to create several DEMs with different resolutions, using various interpolation parameters, in order to compare the models with collected surface data. The aim is to study the accuracy of DEMs in relation to topographical attributes such as slope and drainage area, which are normally used to estimate the wetness in terms of topographic wetness indices. Evaluation points were chosen from the high-resolution LIDAR dataset at a maximum distance of 10 mm from the cell center for each DEM resolution studied, 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 30 and 90 m. The interpolation method used was inverse distance weighting method with four search radii: 1, 2, 5 and 10 m. The DEM was evaluated using a quantile-quantile test and the normalized median absolute deviation. The accuracy of the estimated elevation for different slopes was tested using the DEM with 0.5 m resolution. Drainage areas were investigated at three resolutions, with coinciding evaluation points. The ability of the model to generate the drainage area at each resolution was obtained by pairwise comparison of three data subsets. The results show that the accuracy of the elevations obtained with the DEM model are the same for different resolutions, but vary with search radius. The accuracy of the values (NMAD of errors) varies from 29.7 mm to 88.9 mm, being higher for flatter areas. It was also found that the accuracy of the drainage area is highly dependent on DEM resolution. Coarse resolution yielded larger estimates of the drainage area but lower slope values. This may lead to overestimation of wetness values when using a coarse resolution DEM.

Description: Multivariate design via Copulas Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5523-5558, 2011 Author(s): G. Salvadori, C. De Michele, and F. Durante Calculating return periods and design quantiles in a multivariate framework is a difficult problem: essentially, this is due to the lack of a natural total order in multi-dimensional Euclidean spaces. This paper tries to make the issue clear. First, we outline a possible way to introduce a coherent notion of multivariate total order, and discuss its consequences on the calculation of multivariate return period: in particular, the latter is based on Copulas and the Kendall's measure, which provides a consistent notion of multivariate quantile. Secondly, we introduce several approaches for the identification of critical design events: these latter quantities are of utmost importance in practical applications, but their calculation is yet limited, due to the lack of a suitable theoretical setting where to embed the problem. Throughout the paper, a case study involving the behavior of a dam is used to illustrate the new concepts outlined in this work.

Description: Influence of initial heterogeneities and recharge limitations on the evolution of aperture distributions in carbonate aquifers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5631-5666, 2011 Author(s): B. Hubinger and S. Birk Karst aquifers evolve where the dissolution of soluble rocks causes the enlargement of discrete pathways along fractures or bedding planes, thus creating highly conductive solution conduits. To identify general interrelations between hydrogeological conditions and the properties of the evolving conduit systems the aperture-size frequency distributions resulting from generic models of conduit evolution are analysed. For this purpose, a process-based numerical model coupling flow and rock dissolution is employed. Initial protoconduits are represented by tubes with log-normally distributed aperture sizes with a mean of 0.5 mm. Apertures are spatially uncorrelated and widen up to the metre range due to dissolution by chemically aggressive waters. Several examples of conduit development are examined focussing on influences of the initial heterogeneity and the available amount of recharge. If the available recharge is sufficiently high the evolving conduits compete for flow and those with large apertures and high hydraulic gradients attract more and more water. As a consequence, the positive feedback between increasing flow and dissolution causes the breakthrough of a conduit pathway connecting the recharge and discharge sides of the modelling domain. Under these competitive flow conditions dynamically stable bimodal aperture distributions are found to evolve, i.e. a certain percentage of tubes continues to be enlarged while the remaining tubes stay small-sized. The percentage of strongly widened tubes is found to be independent of the breakthrough time and decreases with increasing heterogeneity of the initial apertures and decreasing amount of available water. If the competition for flow is suppressed because the availability of water is strongly limited breakthrough of a conduit pathway is inhibited and the conduit pathways widen very slowly. The resulting aperture distributions are found to be unimodal covering some orders of magnitudes in size. Under these suppressed flow conditions the entire range of apertures continues to be enlarged. Hence, the number of tubes reaching aperture sizes in the order of centimetres or decimetres continues to increase with time and in the long term may exceed the number of large-sized tubes evolving under competitive flow conditions. This suggests that conduit development under suppressed flow conditions may significantly enhance the permeability of the formation e.g. in deep-seated carbonate settings.

Description: Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 1: Convective vs. stratiform precipitation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5605-5629, 2011 Author(s): M. Ignaccolo and C. De Michele We investigate the variability of the instantaneous distribution shape of the renormalized drop diameter making use of the third order central moment: the skewness . Disdrometer data, collected at Darwin Australia, are considered either as whole or as divided in convective and stratiform precipitation intervals. We show that in all cases the distribution of the skewness is strongly peaked around 0.64. This allows to identify a most common distribution of renormalized drop diameters and two main variations, one with larger and one with smaller skewness. The distributions' shapes are independent from the stratiform vs. convective classification.

Description: The sensitivity of land emissivity estimates from AMSR-E at C and X bands to surface properties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5667-5699, 2011 Author(s): H. Norouzi, M. Temimi, W. B. Rossow, C. Pearl, M. Azarderakhsh, and R. Khanbilvardi Microwave observations at low frequencies exhibit more sensitivity to surface and subsurface properties with little interference from the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to develop a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and to investigate its sensitivity to land surface properties. The developed product complements existing land emissivity products from SSM/I and AMSU by adding land emissivity estimates at two lower frequencies, 6.9 and 10.65 GHz (C- and X-band, respectively). Observations at these low frequencies penetrate deeper into the soil layer. Ancillary data used in the analysis, such as surface skin temperature and cloud mask, are obtained from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Atmospheric properties are obtained from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations to determine the small upwelling and downwelling atmospheric emissions as well as the atmospheric transmission. A sensitivity test confirms the small effect of the atmosphere but shows that skin temperature accuracy can significantly affect emissivity estimates. Retrieved emissivities at C- and X-bands and their polarization differences exhibit similar patterns of variation with changes in land cover type, soil moisture, and vegetation density as seen at SSM/I-like frequencies (Ka and Ku bands). The emissivity maps from AMSR-E at these higher frequencies agree reasonably well with the existing SSM/I-based product. The inherent but small discrepancy introduced by the difference between SSM/I and AMSR-E frequencies and incidence angles has been examined and found to be small. Large differences between emissivity estimates from ascending and descending overpasses were found at the lower frequencies due to the inconsistency between the thermal IR skin temperatures and passive microwave brightness temperatures which can come from below the surface. This issue must be addressed in future studies to improve the accuracy of the emissivity estimates at lower frequencies.

Description: Influence of soil parameters on the skewness coefficient of the annual maximum flood peaks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5559-5604, 2011 Author(s): A. Gioia, V. Iacobellis, S. Manfreda, and M. Fiorentino Understanding the spatial variability of key parameters of flood probability distributions represents a strategy to provide insights on hydrologic similarity and building probabilistic models able to reduce the uncertainty in flood prediction in ungauged basins. In this work, we exploited the theoretically derived distribution of floods TCIF (Gioia et al., 2008), based on two different threshold mechanisms associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events. The model is based on the hypotheses that ordinary floods are generally due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered when severe rainfalls exceed a storage threshold over a large portion of the basin. Within this scheme, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to analyze the effects of climatic and geomorphologic parameters on the skewness coefficient. In particular, the analysis was conducted investigating the influence on flood distribution of physical factors such as rainfall intensity, soil infiltration capacity, and basin area, in order to provide insights in catchment classification and process conceptualization.

Description: Technical note: Towards a continuous classification of climate using bivariate colour mapping Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5733-5742, 2011 Author(s): A. J. Teuling Climate is often defined in terms of discrete classes. Here I use bivariate colour mapping to show that the global distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classes can largely be reproduced by combining the simple means of two key states of the climate system (i.e., air temperature and relative humidity). This allows for a classification that is not only continuous in space, but can be applied at and transferred between timescales ranging from minutes to decades.

Description: The importance of parameter resampling for soil moisture data assimilation into hydrologic models using the particle filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5849-5890, 2011 Author(s): D. A. Plaza, R. De Keyser, G. J. M. De Lannoy, L. Giustarini, P. Matgen, and V. R. N. Pauwels The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) particle filter are evaluated for their performance in soil moisture assimilation and the consequent effect on discharge. With respect to the resulting soil moisture time series, both filters perform similarly. However, both filters have a negative effect on the discharge due to inconsistency between the parameter values and the states after the assimilation. In order to overcome this inconsistency, parameter resampling is applied along with the SIR filter, to obtain consistent parameter values with the analyzed soil moisture state. Extreme parameter replication, which could lead to a particle collapse, is avoided by the perturbation of the parameters with white noise. Both the modelled soil moisture and discharge are improved if the complementary parameter resampling is applied. The SIR filter with parameter resampling offers an efficient way to deal with biased observations. The robustness of the methodology is evaluated for 3 model parameter sets and 3 assimilation frequencies. Overall, the results in this paper indicate that the particle filter is a promising tool for hydrologic modelling purposes, but that an additional parameter resampling may be necessary to consistently update all state variables and fluxes within the model.

Description: Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5811-5847, 2011 Author(s): D. Zoccatelli, M. Borga, A. Viglione, G. B. Chirico, and G. Blöschl This paper provides a general analytical framework for assessing the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. The analytical framework builds upon a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed " spatial moments of catchment rainfall ") which describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of storm velocity at the catchment scale. The paper illustrates the development of the analytical framework and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by means of application to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km 2 . The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide essential information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

Description: Evaluation of the transferability of hydrological model parameters for simulations under changed climatic conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5891-5915, 2011 Author(s): S. Bastola, C. Murphy, and J. Sweeney Conceptual hydrological models are widely used for climate change impact assessment. The implicit assumption in most such work is that the parameters estimated from observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. This paper evaluates a simple threshold based approach for testing this assumption, where a set of behavioural simulators are identified for different climatic conditions for the future simulation i.e. wet, average and dry conditions. These simulators were derived using three different data sets that are generated by sampling a block of one year of data without replacement from the observations such that they define the different climatic conditions. The simulators estimated from the wet climatic data set showed the tendency to underestimate flow when applied to dry data set and vice versa. However, the performances of the three sets of basin simulators on chronologically coherent data are identical to the simulators identified from a sufficiently long data series that contains both wet and dry climatic conditions. The results presented suggest that the issue of time invariance in the value of parameters has a minimal effect on the simulation if the change in precipitation is less than 10 % of the data used for calibration.

Description: Mass transfer effects in 2-D dual-permeability modeling of field preferential bromide leaching with drain effluent Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5917-5967, 2011 Author(s): H. H. Gerke, J. Dusek, and T. Vogel Subsurface drained experimental fields are frequently used for studying preferential flow (PF) in structured soils. Considering two-dimensional (2-D) transport towards the drain, however, the relevance of mass transfer coefficients, apparently reflecting small-scale soil structural properties, for the water and solute balances of the entire drained field is largely unknown. This paper reviews and analyzes effects of mass transfer reductions on Br − leaching for a subsurface drained experimental field using a numerical 2-D dual-permeability model (2D-DPERM). The sensitivity of the "diffusive" mass transfer component on bromide (Br − ) leaching patterns is discussed. Flow and transport is simulated in a 2-D vertical cross-section using parameters, boundary conditions (BC), and data of a Br − tracer irrigation experiment on a subsurface drained field (5000 m 2 area) at Bokhorst (Germany), where soils have developed from glacial till sediments. The 2D-DPERM simulation scenarios assume realistic irrigation and rainfall rates, and Br-application in the soil matrix (SM) domain. The mass transfer reduction controls preferential tracer movement and can be related to physical and chemical properties at the interface between flow path and soil matrix in structured soil. A reduced solute mass transfer rate coefficient allows a better match of the Br − mass flow observed in the tile drain discharge. The results suggest that coefficients of water and solute transfer between PF and SM domains have a clear impact on Br − effluent from the drain. Amount and composition of the drain effluent is analyzed as a highly complex interrelation between temporally and spatially variable mass transfer in the 2-D vertical flow domain that depends on varying "advective" and "diffusive" transfer components, the spatial distribution of residual tracer concentrations, and the lateral flow fields in both domains from plots of the whole subsurface drained field. The local-scale soil structural effects (e.g., such as macropore wall coatings), here conceptualized as changes in mass transfer coefficients, can have a clear effect on leaching at the plot and field-scales.

Description: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5969-5997, 2011 Author(s): R. R. E. Vernimmen, A. Hooijer, Mamenun, and E. Aldrian The accuracy of satellite rainfall data from different sources, TRMM 3B42RT, CMORPH and PERSIANN, was investigated through comparison with reliable ground station rainfall data in Indonesia, with a focus on their ability to detect patterns of low rainfall that may lead to drought conditions. It was found that all sources underestimated rainfall in dry season months. The CMORPH and PERSIANN data differed most from ground station data and are also very different from the TRMM data. However, it proved possible to improve TRMM data to yield sufficiently accurate estimates, both for dry periods ( R 2 0.65–0.92) and annually ( R 2 0.84–0.96), applying a single parameterized bias correction equation that is constant in space and time. It is proposed that these bias corrected TRMM data be used in real-time drought monitoring, in Indonesia and probably in other countries where similar conditions exist. This will yield major advantages, in terms of accuracy, spatial coverage, timely availability and cost efficiency, over drought monitoring with only ground stations.

Description: Effects of antecedent soil moisture on runoff modeling in small semiarid watersheds of southeastern Arizona Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6227-6256, 2011 Author(s): Y. Zhang, H. Wei, and M. A. Nearing Antecedent soil moisture prior to a rain event influences the rainfall-runoff relationship. Very few studies have looked at the effects of antecedent soil moisture on runoff modeling sensitivities in arid and semi-arid areas. This study examines the influence of initial soil moisture on model runoff prediction capability in small semiarid watersheds using model sensitivity and by comparing the use of antecedent vs. average long term soil water content for defining the model initial conditions for the modified Green-Ampt Mein-Larson model within the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM). Measured rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture data from four semiarid rangeland watersheds ranging in size from 0.34 to 4.53 ha on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeastern Arizona, USA, were used. Results showed that: (a) there were no significant correlations between measured runoff ratio and antecedent soil moisture in any of the four watersheds; (b) average sensitivities of simulated runoff amounts and peaks to antecedent soil moisture were 0.05 mm and 0.18 mm h −1 , respectively, with each 1 % change in antecedent soil moisture; (c) runoff amounts and peaks simulated with long term average soil moisture were statistically equivalent to those simulated with measured antecedent soil moisture. The relative lack of sensitivity of modeled runoff to antecedent soil moisture in this case is contrary to results reported in other studies, and is largely due to the fact that the surface soil is nearly always very dry in this environment.

Description: Integrated versus isolated scenario for prediction dissolved oxygen at progression of water quality monitoring stations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6069-6112, 2011 Author(s): A. A. Najah, A. El-Shafie, O. A. Karim, and O. Jaafar This study examined the potential of Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) in predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) at Johor River Basin. The river water quality parameters were monitored regularly each month at four different stations by the Department of Environment (DOE) over a period of ten years, i.e. from 1998 to 2007. The following five water quality parameters were selected for the proposed MLP-NN modelling, namely; temperature (Temp), water pH, electrical conductivity (COND), nitrate (NO 3 ) and ammonical nitrogen (NH 3 –NL). In this study, two scenarios were introduced; the first scenario (Scenario 1) was to establish the prediction model for DO at each station based on five input parameters, while the second scenario (Scenario 2) was to establish the prediction model for DO based on the five input parameters and DO predicted at previous station (upstream). The model needs to verify when output results and the observed values are close enough to satisfy the verification criteria. Therefore, in order to investigate the efficiency of the proposed model, the verification of MLP-NN based on collection of field data within duration 2009–2010 is presented. To evaluate the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. It was found that the most effective inputs were oxygen-containing (NO 3 ) and oxygen demand (NH 3 –NL). On the other hand, Temp and pH were found to be the least effective parameters, whereas COND contributed the lowest to the proposed model. In addition, 17 neurons were selected as the best number of neurons in the hidden layer for the MLP-NN architecture. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Coefficient of Efficiency (CE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CC). A relatively low correlation between the observed and predicted values in the testing data set was obtained in Scenario 1. In contrast, high coefficients of correlation were obtained between the observed and predicted values for the test sets of 0.98, 0.96 and 0.97 for all stations after adopting Scenario 2. It appeared that the results for Scenario 2 were more adequate than Scenario 1, with a significant improvement for all stations ranging from 4 % to 8 %.

Description: The causes of flow regime shifts in the semi-arid Hailiutu River, Northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5999-6030, 2011 Author(s): Z. Yang, Y. X. Zhou, J. Wenninger, and S. Uhlenbrook Identifying the causes (climate vs. human activities) for hydrological variability is a major challenge in hydrology. This paper examines the flow regime shifts, changes in the climatic variables such as precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and crop area in the semi-arid Hailiutu catchment in the middle section of the Yellow River by performing several statistical analyses. The Pettitt test, cumulative sum charts (CUSUM), regime shift index (RSI) method, and harmonic analysis were carried out on annual, monthly, and daily discharges. Four major shifts in the flow regime have been detected in 1968, 1986, 1992 and 2001. Characteristics of the flow regime were analyzed in the five periods: 1957–1967, 1968–1985, 1986–1991, 1992–2000, and 2001–2007. From 1957 to 1967, the flow regime reflects quasi natural conditions with high variability and larger amplitude of 6 months periodic fluctuations. The river flow had been affected by the construction of two reservoirs in the period 1968–1985. In the period of 1986–1991, the river discharge decreased due to the combined influence of river diversions and increase of groundwater extractions for irrigation. In the fourth period of 1992–2000, the river discharge reached lowest flow values and variations corresponding to a large increase in crop area. The flow regime recovered, but not yet to natural status in the fifth period of 2001–2007. Climatic factors are not responsible for all these changes in the flow regime, but the changes are corresponding well to human activities.

Description: Integrating coarse-scale uncertain soil moisture data into a fine-scale hydrological modelling scenario Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6031-6067, 2011 Author(s): H. Vernieuwe, B. De Baets, J. Minet, V. R. N. Pauwels, S. Lambot, M. Vanclooster, and N. E. C. Verhoest In a hydrological modelling scenario, often the modeller is confronted with external data, such as remotely-sensed soil moisture observations, that become available to update the model output. However, the scale triplet (spacing, extent and support) of these data is often inconsistent with that of the model. Furthermore, the external data can be cursed with epistemic uncertainty. Hence, a method is needed that not only integrates the external data into the model, but that also takes into account the difference in scale and the uncertainty of the observations. In this paper, a synthetic hydrological modelling scenario is set up in which a high-resolution distributed hydrological model is run over an agricultural field. At regular time steps, coarse-scale field-averaged soil moisture data, described by means of possibility distributions (epistemic uncertainty), are retrieved by synthetic aperture radar and assimilated into the model. A method is presented that allows to integrate the coarse-scale possibility distribution of soil moisture content data with the fine-scale model-based soil moisture data. To this end, a scaling relationship between field-averaged soil moisture content data and its corresponding standard deviation is employed.

Description: Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4701-4719, 2011 Author(s): G. Lenderink, H. Y. Mok, T. C. Lee, and G. J. van Oldenborgh Hourly precipitation extremes in very long time series from the Hong Kong Observatory and the Netherlands are investigated. Using the 2 m dew point temperature from 4 h before the rainfall event as a measure of near surface absolute humidity, hourly precipitation extremes closely follow a 14 % per degree dependency – a scaling twice as large as following from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, for dew point temperatures above 23 °C no significant dependency on humidity was found. Strikingly, in spite of the large difference in climate, results are almost identical in Hong Kong and the Netherlands for the dew point temperature range where both observational sets have sufficient data. Trends in hourly precipitation extremes show substantial increases over the last century for both De Bilt (the Netherlands) and Hong Kong. For De Bilt, not only the long term trend, but also variations in hourly precipitation extremes on a inter-decadal timescale of 30 yr and longer, can be linked very well to the above scaling; there is a very close resemblance between variations in dew point temperature and precipitation intensity with an inferred dependency of hourly precipitation extremes of 10 to 14 % per degree. For Hong Kong there is no connection between variations in humidity and those in precipitation intensity in the wet season, May to September, consistent with the found zero-dependency of preciptation intensity on humidity for dew points above 23 °C. Yet, outside the wet season humidity changes do appear to explain the positive trend in hourly precipitation extremes, again following a dependency close to twice the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.

Description: Forest cover influence on flood assessment in Italian catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4891-4926, 2011 Author(s): F. Preti, G. Forzieri, and G. B. Chirico The paper aims at evaluating to what extent forest cover could affect the flood peak frequency and magnitude in Italian catchments. The analysis is restricted to evaluating the component of the runoff coefficient which cannot be captured by the catchment lithology alone. A preliminary data mining is performed on data of 75 catchments distributed from South to Central Italy. Cluster and correlation structure analyses are conducted for distinguishing forest cover effects within sample sets of catchments characterized by hydro-morphological similarities. We propose a method for correcting the bias of the runoff coefficient estimated from the catchment lithology only, by accounting for the effect of forest cover. The bias correction becomes significant for small mountainous catchments, characterised by larger forest cover fraction and lower critical rainfall depth. Consistently with what suggested in previous studies, the bias correction decreases as the rainfall depth and return period increase.

Description: Technical Note: Development of an automated lysimeter for the calculation of peat soil actual evapotranspiration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5009-5033, 2011 Author(s): S. Proulx-McInnis, A. St-Hilaire, A. N. Rousseau, S. Jutras, G. Carrer, and G. Levrel A limited number of publications in the literature deal with the measurement of actual evapotranspiration (AET) from a peat soil. AET is an important parameter in the description of water pathways of an ecosystem. In peatlands, where the water table is near the surface and the vegetation is composed of nonvascular plants without stomatal resistance, the AET measurement represents a challenge. This paper discusses the development of an automated lysimeter installed between 12 and 27 July 2010, at a 11-ha bog site, Pont-Rouge (42 km west of Quebec City, Canada). This system was made of an isolated block of peat, maintained at the same water level as the surrounding water table by a system of submersible pressure transmitters and pumps. The change in water level in millimetres in the isolated block of peat was used to calculate the water lost through evapotranspiration (ET) while accounting the precipitation. The rates of AET were calculated for each day of the study period. Temperature fluctuated between 17.2 and 23.3 °C and total rainfall was 43.76 mm. AET rates from 0.6 to 6.9 mm day −1 were recorded, with a ΣAET/ΣP ratio of 1.38. The estimated potential ET (PET) resulting from Thornthwaite's semi-empirical formula suggested values between 2.8 and 3.9 mm day −1 . The average AET/PET ratio was 1.13. According to the literature, the results obtained are plausible. This system, relatively inexpensive and simple to install, may eventually be used to calculate AET on peaty soils in the years to come.

Description: Technical Note: Demonstrating a 24/7 solution for monitoring water quality loads in rivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5035-5050, 2011 Author(s): P. Jordan and R. Cassidy Quantifying nutrient and sediment loads in catchments is difficult owing to diffuse controls related to storm hydrology. Coarse sampling and interpolation methods are prone to very high uncertainties due to under-representation of high discharge, short duration events. Additionally, important low-flow processes such as diurnal signals linked to point source impacts are missed. Here we demonstrate a solution based on a time-integrated approach to sampling with a standard 24 bottle autosampler configured to take a sample every 7 h over a week. This is evaluated with a number of other sampling strategies using a two-year dataset of sub-hourly discharge and phosphorus concentration data. The 24/7 solution is shown to be the least uncertain in estimating load (inter-quartile range is 96 % to 110 % of actual load in year 1 and 97 % to 104 % in year 2) due to the increased frequency raising the probability of sampling storm events and point source signals. The 24/7 solution would appear to be most parsimonious in terms of technology requirements, the ability to be widely deployed and to represent important nutrient transfer processes in complex catchments.

Description: Testing gridded land precipitation data and precipitation and runoff reanalyses (1982–2010) between 45° S and 45° N with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13175-13205, 2014 Author(s): S. O. Los The realistic simulation of key components of the land-surface hydrological cycle – precipitation, runoff, evaporation and transpiration – in general circulation models of the atmosphere is crucial to assess adverse weather impacts on environment and society. Here, gridded precipitation data from observations and precipitation and runoff fields from reanalyses were tested with satellite-derived global vegetation index data for 1982–2010 and latitudes between 45° S and 45° N. Data were obtained from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM; analysed for 1998–2010 only) and (precipitation and runoff) reanalyses were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the NASA Global Modelling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Annual land-surface precipitation was converted to annual potential vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and was compared to mean annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (1982–1999) and MODIS (2001–2010). The effect of spatial resolution on the agreement between NPP and NDVI was investigated as well. The CRU and TRMM derived NPP agreed most closely with the NDVI data. The GPCP data showed weaker spatial agreement, largely because of their lower spatial resolution, but similar temporal agreement. MERRA Land and ERA Interim precipitation reanalyses showed similar spatial agreement as the GPCP data and good temporal agreement in semi-arid regions of the Americas, Asia, Australia and southern Africa. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis showed the lowest spatial agreement which could only in part be explained by its lower spatial resolution. No reanalysis showed realistic interannual precipitation variations for northern tropical Africa. Inclusion of runoff in the NPP prediction resulted only in (marginally) better agreement for the MERRA Land reanalysis and worse agreement for the NCEP/NCAR and ERA Interim reanalyses.

Description: A global dataset of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13207-13258, 2014 Author(s): S. Siebert, M. Kummu, M. Porkka, P. Döll, N. Ramankutty, and B. R. Scanlon Irrigation intensifies land use by increasing crop yield but also impacts water resources. It affects water and energy balances and consequently the microclimate in irrigated regions. Therefore, knowledge of the extent of irrigated land is important for hydrological and crop modelling, global change research, and assessments of resource use and management. Information on the historical evolution of irrigated lands is limited. The new global Historical Irrigation Dataset (HID) provides estimates of the temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5 arc-minute resolution. We collected subnational irrigation statistics from various sources and found that the global extent of AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 112 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. We developed eight gridded versions of time series of AEI by combining subnational irrigation statistics with different data sets on the historical extent of cropland and pasture. Different rules were applied to maximize consistency of the gridded products to subnational irrigation statistics or to historical cropland and pasture data sets. The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land in the western United States as shown on historical maps. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and river discharge decreased from 1900–1950 whereas aridity decreased from 1950–2005. The dataset and its documentation are made available in an open data repository at https://mygeohub.org/publications/8 (doi: 10.13019/M2MW2G ).

Description: Bayesian inverse modelling of in situ soil water dynamics: using prior information about the soil hydraulic properties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 2019-2063, 2011 Author(s): B. Scharnagl, J. A. Vrugt, H. Vereecken, and M. Herbst In situ observations of soil water state variables under natural boundary conditions are often used to estimate field-scale soil hydraulic properties. However, many contributions to the soil hydrological literature have demonstrated that the information content of such data is insufficient to reliably estimate all the soil hydraulic parameters. In this case study, we tested whether prior information about the soil hydraulic properties could help improve the identifiability of the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters. Three different prior distributions with increasing complexity were formulated using the ROSETTA pedotransfer function (PTF) with input data that constitutes basic soil information and is readily available in most vadose zone studies. The inverse problem was posed in a formal Bayesian framework and solved using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. Synthetic and real-world soil water content data were used to illustrate our approach. The results of this study corroborate and explicate findings previously reported in the literature. Indeed, soil water content data alone contained insufficient information to reasonably constrain all VGM parameters. The identifiability of these soil hydraulic parameters was substantially improved when an informative prior distribution was used with detailed knowledge of the correlation structure among the respective VGM parameters. A biased prior did not distort the results, which inspires confidence in the robustness and effectiveness of the presented method. The Bayesian framework presented in this study can be applied to a wide range of vadose zone studies and provides a blueprint for the use of prior information in inverse modelling of soil hydraulic properties at various spatial scales.

Description: Classification of thermal waters based on their inorganic fingerprint and hydrogeothermal modelling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4559-4581, 2011 Author(s): I. Delgado-Outeiriño, P. Araujo-Nespereira, J. A. Cid-Fernández, J. C. Mejuto, E. Martínez-Carballo, and J. Simal-Gándara Hydrothermal features in Galicia have been used since ancient times for therapeutic purposes. A characterization of these thermal waters was carried out in order to understand their behaviour based on inorganic pattern and water-rock interaction mechanisms. In this way 15 thermal water samples were collected in the same hydrographical system. The results of the hydrogeochemistry analysis showed one main water family of bicarbonate type sodium waters, typical in the post-orogenic basins of Galicia. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial lest squared (PLS) clustered the selected thermal waters in two groups, regarding to their chemical composition. This classification agreed with the results obtained by the use of geothermometers and the hydrogeochemical modelling. The first included thermal samples that could be in contact with surface waters and therefore, their residence time in the reservoir and their water-rock interaction would be less important than for the thermal waters of the second group.

Description: The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4459-4493, 2011 Author(s): J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, J. I. López-Moreno, J. C. González-Hidalgo, and E. Morán-Tejeda In this study we analyzed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the streamflow in 187 sub-basins of the Iberian Peninsula. Monthly and one-month lagged correlations were conducted to assess the spatio-temporal extent of the NAO influence on Iberian river discharges. Analysis of the persistence of the winter NAO throughout the year was also undertaken, together with analysis of streamflow anomalies during positive and negative NAO phases. Moving-window correlation analyses were conducted to assess potential changes in the temporal evolution of the NAO influence on Iberian streamflows. The results show that the NAO has a large impact on surface water resources throughout the Iberian Peninsula during winter, and in the Atlantic watershed during autumn. We showed that water resources management and snowmelt are causing the persistent dependence of streamflows on the previous winter NAO. We found that strongly positive streamflow anomalies occurred during winter, especially in the Atlantic watershed, and provide evidence of non-stationarity and spatial variability in the NAO influence on Iberian water resources.

Description: Catchment classification: empirical analysis of hydrologic similarity based on catchment function in the eastern USA Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4495-4534, 2011 Author(s): K. Sawicz, T. Wagener, M. Sivapalan, P. A. Troch, and G. Carrillo Hydrologic similarity between catchments, derived from their similarity in how they respond to precipitation input, is the basis for classification, for transferability, for generalization and also for understanding the potential impacts of environmental change. An important question in this context is, in how far can widely available hydrologic information (precipitation-temperature-streamflow) be used to create a first order grouping of hydrologically similar catchments? We utilize a heterogeneous dataset of 280 catchments located in the Eastern US to understand hydrologic similarity in a 6-dimensional signature space across a region with strong environmental gradients. Signatures are defined as hydrologic response characteristics that provide some insight into the hydrologic function of catchments. A Bayesian clustering scheme is used to separate the catchments into 9 classes, which are subsequently analyzed with respect to their hydrologic, as well as climatic and landscape attributes. Based on the empirical results we hypothesize the following: (1) Streamflow elasticity with respect to precipitation is modified by the soil characteristics of a catchment. (2) Spatial proximity is a good first indicator of hydrologic similarity because of the strong control climate exerts on catchment function, and because it varies slowly in space.

Description: Improving confidence in deep drainage estimates, for arid and semi-arid areas using multiple linear regression with percent clay content and rainfall Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4535-4557, 2011 Author(s): D. L. Wohling, F. W. Leaney, and R. S. Crosbie Deep drainage estimates are required for effective management of water resources. However, field measurements are time consuming and costly so simple empirical relationships are often used. Relationships developed between clay content of the surface soil and deep drainage have been used extensively in Australia to provide regional estimates of drainage but these relationships have been poorly justified and did not include rainfall in the relationships. Here we present a rigorous appraisal of clay content of soils and rainfall as predictors of drainage using an extensive database of field observations from across Australia. This study found that annual average rainfall and the clay content of the top 2 m of the soil are statistically significant predictors of drainage. Relationships have been defined for annual, perennial and tree type vegetation as a line of best fit along with 95 % confidence intervals. This allows the uncertainty in these drainage estimates to be assessed for the first time.

Description: Catchment classification: hydrological analysis of catchment behavior through process-based modeling along a climate gradient Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4583-4640, 2011 Author(s): G. Carrillo, P. A. Troch, M. Sivapalan, T. Wagener, C. Harman, and K. Sawicz Catchment classification is an efficient method to synthesize our understanding of how climate variability and catchment characteristics interact to define hydrological response. One way to accomplish catchment classification is to empirically relate climate and catchment characteristics to hydrologic behavior and to quantify the skill of predicting hydrologic response based on the combination of climate and catchment characteristics. Since there are important subsurface properties that cannot be readily measured, the skill of classification reflects (the lack of) the amount of cross-correlation between observable landscape features and unobservable subsurface features. The resulting empirical approach is also strongly controlled by the dataset used, and therefore lacks the power to generalize beyond the heterogeneity of characteristics found in the dataset. An alternative approach, that can partially alleviate the above-mentioned issue of observability, uses our current level of hydrological understanding, expressed in the form of a process-based model, to interrogate how climate and catchment characteristics interact to produce the observed hydrologic response. In this paper we present a general method of hydrologic analysis by means of a process-based model to support a bottom-up catchment classification system complementary to top-down classification methods. The model uses topographic, geomorphologic, soil and vegetation information at the catchment scale and conditions parameter values using readily available data on precipitation, temperature and streamflow. It is applicable to a wide range of catchments in different climate settings. We have developed a step-by-step procedure to analyze the observed hydrologic response and to assign parameter values related to specific components of the model. We applied this procedure to 12 catchments across a climate gradient east of the Rocky Mountains, USA. We show that the model is capable of reproducing the observed hydrologic behavior measured through hydrologic signatures chosen at different temporal scales. Next, we analyze the dominant time scales of catchment response and their dimensionless ratios with respect to climate and observable landscape features in an attempt to explain hydrologic partitioning. We find that only a limited number of model parameters can be related to observable landscape features. However, several climate-model time scales, and the associated dimensionless numbers, show scaling relationships with respect to the investigated hydrological signatures (runoff coefficient, baseflow index, and slope of the flow duration curve). Moreover, our analysis revealed systematic co-variation of climate, vegetation and soil related time scales along the climate gradient. If such co-variation can be shown to be robust across many catchments along different climate gradients, it opens perspective for model parameterization in ungauged catchments as well as prediction of hydrologic response in a rapidly changing environment.

Description: Insights from a joint analysis of Indian and Chinese monsoon rainfall data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3167-3187, 2011 Author(s): M. Zhou, F. Tian, U. Lall, and H. Hu Monsoon rainfall is of great importance for the agricultural production in both China and India. Understanding its rule and possibility of long term prediction is a challenge for research. This paper gives a joint analysis of Indian monsoon and Chinese monsoon, finds their teleconnection to Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTa) and other climate indices individually and relationship in common. The results show that northern China garners less rainfall when whole Indian rainfall is below normal. Also, with cold SSTa over the Indonesia region, more rainfall would be distributed over India and South China.

Description: The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3189-3231, 2011 Author(s): A. W. Western, B. Anderson, L. Siriwardena, F. H. S. Chiew, A. Seed, and G. Blöschl The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min) rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth 〉10 mm) is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs) in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the efficiency of prediction of the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals). The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude) and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

Description: Water table fluctuation and its effects on vegetation in a semiarid environment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3271-3304, 2011 Author(s): L. Duan, T. Liu, X. Wang, Y. Luo, W. Wang, and X. Liu A good understanding of water table fluctuation effects on vegetation is crucial for sustaining fragile hydrology and ecology of semiarid areas such as the Horqin Sandy Land (HSL) in northern China, but such understanding is not well documented in literature. The objectives of this study were to examine spatio-temporal variations of water table and their effects on vegetation in a semiarid environment. A 9.71 km 2 area within the HSL was chosen and well-instrumented to continuously measure hydrometeorologic parameters (e.g., water table). The area comprises of meadow lands and sandy dunes as well as transitional zones in between. In addition to those measured data, this study also used Landsat TM and MODIS imageries and meteorological data at a station near the study area. The spatio-temporal variations were examined using visual plots and contour maps, while the effects on vegetation were determined by overlaying a water table depth map with a vegetation index map derived from the MODIS imageries. The results indicated that water table was mainly dependent on local topography, localized geological settings, and human activities (e.g., reclamation). At annual and monthly scales, water table was mainly a function of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. A region within the study area where depth to water table was smaller tended to have better (i.e., more dense and productive) vegetation cover. Further, the results revealed that water table fluctuation was more sensitive for vegetations in the meadow lands than in the transitional zones, but it was least sensitive for vegetations in the sandy dunes.

Description: Comparison of catchment grouping methods for flow duration curve estimation at ungauged sites in France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3233-3269, 2011 Author(s): E. Sauquet and C. Catalogne The study aims at estimating flow duration curves (FDC) at ungauged sites in France and quantifying the associated uncertainties using a large dataset of 1080 FDCs. The interpolation procedure focuses here on 15 percentiles standardised by the mean annual flow, which is supposed to be known at each site. In particular, this paper discusses the relevance of different catchments grouping procedures on percentiles estimation by regional regression models. First, five parsimonious FDC parametric models were tested to approximate FDCs at gauged sites. The results show that the model based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) expansion outperforms the other ones. In this model each FDC is interpreted as a linear combination of regional amplitude functions with weights – the parameters of the model – varying in space. Here, only one amplitude function was found sufficient to fit well most of the observed curves. Thus the considered model requires only two parameters to be estimated at ungauged locations. Second, homogeneous regions were derived according to hydrological response on one hand, and geological, climatic and topographic characteristics on the other hand. Hydrological similarity was assessed through two simple indicators: the concavity index ( IC ) that represents the shape of the standardized FDC and the seasonality ratio ( SR ) which is the ratio of summer and winter median flows. These variables were used as homogeneity criteria in three different methods for grouping catchments: (i) according to their membership in one of an a priori French classification into Hydro-Eco-Regions (HERs), (ii) by applying a regression tree clustering and (iii) by using hydrological neighbourhood obtained by canonical correlation analysis. Finally, regression models between physiographic and/or climatic variables and the two parameters of the EOF model were derived considering all the data and thereafter for each group obtained through the tested grouping techniques. Results on percentiles estimation in cross validation show a significant benefit to form homogeneous regions before developing regressions, particularly when grouping methods use hydrogeological information.

Description: Influences on flood frequency distributions in Irish river catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3305-3351, 2011 Author(s): S. Ahilan, J. J. O'Sullivan, and M. Bruen This study explores influences which result in shifts of flood frequency distributions in Irish rivers. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) type I distributions are recommended in Ireland for estimating flood quantiles. This paper presents the findings of an investigation that identified the GEV statistical distributions that best fit the annual maximum (AM) data series extracted from 172 gauging stations of 126 rivers in Ireland. Of these 126 rivers, 25 have multiple gauging stations. Analysis of this data was undertaken to explore hydraulic and hydro-geological factors that influence flood frequency distributions and whether shifts in distributions occur in the down-river direction. The methodology involved determining the shape parameter of GEV distributions that were fitted to AM data at each site and to statistically test this shape parameter to determine whether a type I, type II or type III distribution was valid. The classification of these distributions was further supported by moment and L -moment diagrams and probability plots. Results indicated that of the 143 stations with flow records exceeding 25 yr, data for 92 was best represented by GEV type I distributions and that for another 12 and 39 stations followed type II and type III distributions respectively. The spatial, hydraulic and hydro-geological influences on flood frequency distributions were assessed by incorporating results on an Arc-GIS platform with individual layers showing karst features, flood attenuation polygons and lakes. This data reveals that type I distributions are spatially well represented throughout the country. The majority of type III distributions appear in four distinct clusters in well defined geographical areas where attenuation influences from floodplains and lakes appear to be influential. The majority of type II distributions appear to be in a single cluster in a region in the west of the country that is characterised by a karst landscape. The presence of karst in river catchments would be expected to provide additional subsurface storage and in this regard, type III distributions might be expected. The prevalence of type II distributions in this area reflects the finite nature of this storage and the effects, in extreme conditions, when the karst is saturated and further storage is no longer available. Results therefore indicate that in some instances assuming type I distributions is incorrect and may result in erroneous estimates of flood quantiles in these regions. Where actual data follows a type II distribution, flood quantiles may be underestimated and for type III distributions, overestimates may be expected.

Description: Quantifying flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3133-3166, 2011 Author(s): C.-F. Ni, C.-P. Lin, S.-G. Li, and J.-S. Chen This study presents a numerical first-order spectral model to quantify flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers. Taking advantages of spectral theories in solving unmodeled small-scale variability in hydraulic conductivity ( K ), the presented nonstationary spectral method (NSM) can efficiently estimate flow uncertainties, including hydraulic heads and Darcy velocities in r- and z profile in a cylindrical coordinate system. The velocity uncertainties associated with the particle backward tracking algorithm are then used to estimate stochastic remediation zones for scenarios with partially opened well screens. In this study the flow and remediation zone uncertainties obtained by NSM were first compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). A layered aquifer with different geometric mean of K and screen locations was then illustrated with the developed NSM. To compare NSM flow and remediation zone uncertainties with those of MCS, three different small-scale K variances and correlation lengths were considered for illustration purpose. The MCS remediation zones for different degrees of heterogeneity were presented with the uncertainty clouds obtained by 200 equally likely MCS realizations. Results of simulations reveal that the first-order NSM solutions agree well with those of MCS for partially opened wells. The flow uncertainties obtained by using NSM and MCS show identically for aquifers with small ln K variances and correlation lengths. Based on the test examples, the remediation zone uncertainties are not sensitive to the changes of small-scale ln K correlation lengths. However, the increases of remediation zone uncertainties are significant with the increases of small-scale ln K variances. The largest displacement uncertainties may have several meters of differences when the ln K variances increase from 0.1 to 1.0. Such results are also valid for the estimations of remediation zones in layered aquifers.

Description: Evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic models: borrowing measures from the forecast verification community Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3085-3131, 2011 Author(s): K. J. Franz and T. S. Hogue The hydrologic community is generally moving towards the use of probabilistic estimates of streamflow, primarily through the implementation of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) systems, ensemble data assimilation methods, or multi-modeling platforms. However, evaluation of probabilistic outputs has not necessarily kept pace with ensemble generation. Much of the modeling community is still performing model evaluation using standard deterministic measures, such as error, correlation, or bias, typically applied to the ensemble mean or median. Probabilistic forecast verification methods have been well developed, particularly in the atmospheric sciences yet, few have been adopted for evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic model simulations. In the current paper, we overview existing probabilistic forecast verification methods and apply the methods to evaluate and compare model ensembles produced from different parameter uncertainty estimation methods. The Generalized Uncertainty Likelihood Estimator (GLUE), a modified version of GLUE, and the Shuffle Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) are used to generate model ensembles for the National Weather Service SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for 12 forecast basins located in the Southeastern United States. We evaluate the model ensembles using relevant metrics in the following categories: distribution, correlation, accuracy, conditional statistics, and categorical statistics. We show that the probabilistic metrics are easily adapted to model simulation ensembles and provide a robust analysis of parameter uncertainty, one that is commensurate with the dimension of the ensembles themselves. Application of these methods requires no information in addition to what is already available as part of traditional model validation methodology and considers the entire ensemble or uncertainty range in the approach.

Description: A structure generator for modelling the initial sediment distribution of an artificial hydrologic catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4641-4699, 2011 Author(s): T. Maurer, A. Schneider, and H. H. Gerke Artificially-created hydrological catchments are characterized by sediment structures from technological construction processes that can potentially be important for modelling of flow and transport and for understanding initial soil and ecosystem development. The subsurface spatial structures of such catchments have not yet been sufficiently explored and described. Our objective was to develop a structure generator programme for modelling the 3-D spatial sediment distribution patterns depending on the technical earth-moving and deposition processes. For the development, the artificially-constructed hydrological catchment "Chicken Creek" located in Lower Lusatia, Germany, served as an example. The structure generator describes 3-D technological sediment distributions at two scales: (i) for a 2-D-vertical cross-section, texture and bulk density distributions are generated within individual spoil cones that result from mass dumping, particle segregation, and compaction and (ii) for the whole catchment area, the spoil cones are horizontally arranged along trajectories of mass dumping controlled by the belt stacker-machine relative to the catchment's clay layer topography. The generated 3-D texture and bulk density distributions are interpolated and visualized as a gridded 3-D-volume body using 3-D computer-aided design software. The generated subsurface sediment distribution for the Chicken Creek catchment was found to correspond to observed patterns although still without any calibration. Spatial aggregation and interpolation in the gridded volume body modified the generated distributions towards more uniform (unimodal) distributions and lower values of the standard deviations. After incorporating variations and pedotransfer approaches, generated sediment distributions can be used for deriving realizations of the 3-D hydraulic catchment structure.

Description: Skill assessment of a global hydrological model in reproducing flow extremes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3469-3505, 2011 Author(s): N. Candogan Yossef, L. P. H. van Beek, J. C. J. Kwadijk, and M. F. P. Bierkens As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the MHM PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958 until 2001 is simulated by forcing PCR-GLOBWB with daily meteorological data obtained by downscaling the CRU dataset to daily fields using the ERA-40 reanalysis. Simulated discharge values are compared with observed monthly streamflow records for a selection of 20 large river basins that represent all continents and a wide range of climatic zones. We assess model skill in three ways. First, the general performance of the model in reproducing hydrographs is evaluated. Second, model skill in reproducing significantly higher and lower flows than the monthly normals is assessed in terms of skill scores used for forecasts of categorical events. Third, model skill in reproducing flood and drought events is assessed by constructing binary contingency tables for floods and droughts for each basin. The results show that the model has skill in all three types of hindcasting. After bias correction the model skill in simulating hydrographs is improved considerably. For most basins it is much higher than that of the climatology. The skill in hindcasting monthly anomalies is high compared to that of an imaginary unskilled system. The model also performs better than an unskilled system in hindcasting floods and droughts, with a markedly higher skill in floods. We conclude that the prospect for using PCR-GLOBWB for monthly and seasonal hydrological forecasting is positive. Our results which we argue are representative for other similar MHMs, show that MHMs have sufficient skill for use in forecasting flow extremes.

Description: On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5355-5386, 2011 Author(s): K. Beven, P. J. Smith, and A. Wood Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary means that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals can be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions. To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information content in a set of calibration data and increase the possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior to evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed. An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter values of a hydrological model.

Description: Effects of freezing on soil temperature, frost propagation and moisture redistribution in peat: laboratory investigations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5387-5426, 2011 Author(s): R. M. Nagare, R. A. Schincariol, W. L. Quinton, and M. Hayashi The effects of freezing on soil temperature and water movement were monitored in four peat Mesocosms subjected to bidirectional freezing. Temperature gradients were applied by bringing the Mesocosm tops in contact with sub-zero air temperature while maintaining a continuously frozen layer at the bottom (proxy permafrost). Soil water movement towards the freezing front (from warmer to colder regions) was inferred from soil freezing curves and from the total water content of frozen core samples collected at the end of freezing cycle. This study illustrates how differences in initial water content influence the hydrologic functions of active layer in permafrost terrains covered with thick peat during soil freezing. A substantial amount of water, enough to raise the upper surface of frozen saturated soil within 15 cm of the soil surface at the end of freezing period, appeared to have moved upwards during freezing. Effects of temperature on soil matric potential, at least in the initial freezing period, appear to drive such movement as seen from analysis of soil freezing curves. Vapour movement from warmer to colder regions also appears to contribute in moisture movement. Frost propagation is controlled by latent heat for a long time during freezing. A simple conceptual model describing freezing of an organic active layer initially resembling a variable moisture landscape is proposed based upon the results of this study. The results of this study will help in understanding, and ultimately forecasting, the hydrologic response of wetland-dominated terrain underlain by discontinuous permafrost.

Description: SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds. The two-CN system approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 8963-9004, 2011 Author(s): K. X. Soulis and J. D. Valiantzas The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN values can be estimated by being selected from tables. However, it is more accurate to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data (assumed available) in a watershed. Previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. They suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the novel hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of the inevitable presence of soil-cover complex spatial variability along watersheds is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behavior of the CN-rainfall function produced by the proposed two-CN system concept is approached theoretically, it is analyzed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous original method based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one), a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

Description: A channel transmission losses model for different dryland rivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 8903-8962, 2011 Author(s): A. C. Costa, A. Bronstert, and J. C. de Araújo Channel transmission losses in drylands take place normally in extensive alluvial channels or streambeds underlain by fractured rocks. They can play an important role in flood prediction, groundwater recharge, freshwater supply and channel-associated ecosystems. We aim to develop a semi-distributed channel transmission losses model, a coupling of formulations which are more suitable for data-scarce dryland environments, applicable for both hydraulically disconnected losing streams and hydraulically connected losing(/gaining) streams. Hence, this approach should be able to cover a large variation in climate and hydro-geologic controls, which are typically found in dryland regions of the world. Traditionally, channel transmission losses models have been developed for site specific conditions. Our model was firstly evaluated for a losing/gaining, hydraulically connected 30 km reach of the Jaguaribe River, Ceará, Brazil, which controls a catchment area of 20 000 km 2 . Secondly, we applied it to a small losing, hydraulically disconnected 1.5 km channel reach in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW), Arizona, USA. The model based on the perceptual hydrological models of the reaches was able to predict reliably the stream flow for the both case studies. For the larger river reach, the evaluation of the hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes was fundamental for reducing structural model uncertainties and improving the stream flow prediction, showing that both lateral stream-aquifer water fluxes and groundwater flow in the underlying alluvium parallel to the river course are necessary to predict stream flow and channel transmission losses, the former process being more relevant than the latter. The sensitivity analysis showed that even if the parameters can "potentially" produce large flow exchanges between model units in the saturated part of the modelling, large flow exchanges do not happen because they are restricted by the actual hydraulic gradient between the model units. Moreover, the saturated-part-based parameters (active in the larger river) produced much smaller variation in the sensitivity coefficient than those (active in the smaller river) which drive the unsaturated part of the channel transmission losses model.

Description: Watershed discretization based on multiple factors and its application in the Chinese Loess Plateau Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9063-9087, 2011 Author(s): Y. Xu, B. Fu, C. He, and G. Gao The spatial discretization of watersheds is an indispensable procedure for representing landscape variations in eco-hydrological research, representing the contrast between reality and data-supported models. When discretizing a watershed, it is important to construct a scheme of a moderate number of discretized factors while adequately considering the actual eco-hydrological processes, especially in regions with unique eco-hydrological features and intense human activities. Because of their special lithological and pedologic characteristics and widespread man-made vegetation, discretization of watersheds in the Loess Plateau in Northern China is a challenge. In order to simulate the rainfall-runoff process, a watershed in the Loess Plateau, referred as Ansai, was spatially discretized into new units called land type units. These land type units were delineated under a scheme of factors including land use, vegetation condition, soil type and slope. Instead of using units delineated by overlaying land use and soil maps, the land type units were used in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Curve numbers were assigned and adjusted to simulate runoff, using the US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number method. The results of the runoff simulation better matched actual observations. Compared to the results that used the original units, the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient ( E NS ) for monthly flow simulation increased from 0.710–0.721 and 0.581–0.656 to 0.726–0.731 and 0.692–0.703, respectively. This method of delineating into land type units is an easy operation and suitable approach for eco-hydrological studies in the Chinese Loess Plateau and other similar regions. It can be further applied in soil erosion simulation and the eco-hydrological assessment of re-vegetation.

Description: Improving evapotranspiration in land surface models by using biophysical parameters derived from MSG/SEVIRI satellite Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9113-9171, 2011 Author(s): N. Ghilain, A. Arboleda, G. Sepulcre-Cantò, O. Batelaan, J. Ardö, and F. Gellens-Meulenberghs Vegetation parameters derived from the geostationary satellite MSG/SEVIRI have been distributed at a daily frequency since 2007 over Europe, Africa and part of South America, through the LSA-SAF facility. We propose here a method to handle two new remote sensing products from LSA-SAF, leaf area index and Fractional Vegetation Cover, noted LAI and FVC respectively, for land surface models at MSG/SEVIRI scale. The developed method relies on an ordinary least-square technique and a land cover map to estimate LAI for each model plant functional types of the model spatial unit. The method is conceived to be applicable for near-real time applications at continental scale. Compared to monthly vegetation parameters from a vegetation database commonly used in numerical weather predictions (ECOCLIMAP-I), the new remote sensing products allows a better monitoring of the spatial and temporal variability of the vegetation, including inter-annual signals, and a decreased uncertainty on LAI to be input into land surface models. We assess the impact of using LSA-SAF vegetation parameters compared to ECOCLIMAP-I in the land surface model H-TESSEL at MSG/SEVIRI scale. Comparison with in-situ observations in Europe and Africa shows that the results on evapotranspiration are mostly improved, and especially in semi-arid climates. At last, the use of LSA-SAF and ECOCLIMAP-I is compared with simulations over a North-South Transect in Western Africa using LSA-SAF radiation forcing derived from remote sensing, and differences are highlighted.

Description: In-situ evaluation of internal drainage in layered soils (Tukulu, Sepane and Swartland) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9797-9841, 2011 Author(s): S. S. W. Mavimbela and L. D. van Rensburg The soil water release (SWC) and permeability properties of layered soils following deep infiltration depends on the structural and layering composition of the profiles diagnostic horizons. Three layered soils, the Tukulu, Sepane and Swartland soil forms, from the Free State province of South Africa, were selected for internal drainage evaluation. The soil water release curves as a function of suction ( h ) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity ( K -coefficient) as a function of soil water content, SWC ( θ ), were characterised alongside the pedological properties of the profiles. The water hanging column in collaboration with the in-situ instantaneous profile method (IPM) was appropriate for this work. Independently, the saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K s ) was measured using double ring infiltrometers. The three soils had a generic orthic A horizon but differed remarkable with depth. A clay rich layer was found in the Tukulu and Sepane at depths of 600 to 850 mm and 300 to 900 mm, respectively. The Swartland was weakly developed with a saprolite rock found at depth of 400–700 mm. During the 1200 h drainage period, soil water loss amounted to 21, 20 and 51 mm from the respective Tukulu, Sepane and Swartland profiles. An abrupt drop in K s in conjunction with a steep K -coefficient gradient with depth was observed from the Tukulu and Sepane. Hydromorphic colours found on the clay-rich horizons suggested a wet soil water regime that implied restriction of internal drainage. It was therefore concluded that the clay rich horizons gave the Tukulu and Sepane soil types restricted internal drainage properties required for soil water storage under infield rainwater harvesting production technique. The coarseness of the Swartland promoted high drainage losses that proliferated a dry soil water regime.

Description: Promoting interdisciplinary education – the Vienna Doctoral Programme on Water Resource Systems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9843-9887, 2011 Author(s): G. Blöschl, G. Carr, C. Bucher, A. H. Farnleitner, H. Rechberger, W. Wagner, and M. Zessner The Vienna Doctoral Programme on Water Resource Systems (DK-WRS) is a programme that aims to educate students in interdisciplinary water science through cutting edge research at an international level. It is funded by the Austrian Science Fund and designed to run over a period of 12 yr during which 80 doctoral students are anticipated to graduate. This paper reports on our experiences of setting up and implementing the Programme. We identify three challenges: integrating the disciplines, maintaining depth in an interdisciplinary programme, and teaching subjects remote to each student's core expertise. To address these challenges we adopted a number of approaches. We use three levels of instruments to foster integration across the disciplines: joint groups (e.g. a joint study programme), joint science questions (e.g. developed in annual symposia), and joint study sites. To maintain depth we apply a system of quality control including regular feedback sessions, theses by journal publications and international study exchange. For simultaneously teaching students from civil and environmental engineering, biology, geology, chemistry, mathematics we use visually explicit teaching, learning by doing, extra mentoring and by cross relating associated subjects. Our initial assessment of the Programme shows some very positive outcomes. Joint science questions formed between students from various disciplines indicate integration is being achieved. The number of successful publications in top journals suggests that depth is maintained. Positive feedback from the students on the variety and clarity of the courses indicates the teaching strategy is working well. Our experiences have shown that implementing and running an interdisciplinary doctoral programme has its challenges and is demanding in terms of time and human resources but seeing interactions progress and watching people grow and develop their way of thinking in an interdisciplinary environment is a valuable reward.

Description: El-Niño southern oscillation and rainfall erosivity in the headwater region of the Grande River Basin, Southeast Brazil Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10707-10738, 2011 Author(s): C. R. Mello, L. D. Norton, N. Curi, S. N. M. Yanagi, and A. M. Silva Relationships between regional climate and oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are important tools in order to promote the development of models for predicting rainfall erosivity, especially in regions with substantial intra-annual variability in the rainfall regime. In this context, this work aimed to analyze the rainfall erosivity in headwaters of Grande River Basin, Southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil. This study considered the two most representative environments, the Mantiqueira Range (MR) and Plateau of Southern Minas Gerais (PSM). These areas are affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for Niño 3.4 Region and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Rainfall erosivity was calculated for individual rainfall events from January 2006 to December 2010. The analyses were conducted using the monthly data of ENSO indicators and the following rainfall variables: rainfall erosivity (EI 30 ), rainfall depth ( P ), erosive rainfall depth ( E ), number of rainfall events (NRE), number of erosive rainfall events (NEE), frequency of occurrence of an early rainfall pattern (EP), occurrence of late rainfall pattern (LP) and occurrence of intermediate rainfall patter (IP). Pearson's coefficient of correlation was used to evaluate the relationships between the rainfall variables and SST and MEI. The coefficients of correlation were significant for SST in the PSM sub-region. Correlations between the rainfall variables and negative oscillations of SST were also significant, especially in the MR sub-region, however, the Person's coefficients were lesser than those obtained for the SST positive oscillations. The correlations between the rainfall variables and MEI were also significant but lesser than the SST correlations. These results demonstrate that SST positive oscillations play a more important role in rainfall erosivity, meaning they were more influenced by El-Niño episodes. Also, these results have shown that the ENSO variables have potential to be useful for rainfall erosivity forecasting in this region.

Description: Extreme runoff response to short-duration convective rainfall in South-West Germany Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10739-10780, 2011 Author(s): V. Ruiz-Villanueva, M. Borga, D. Zoccatelli, L. Marchi, E. Gaume, U. Ehret, and E. Zehe The 2 June 2008 flood-producing storm on the Starzel river basin in South-West Germany is examined as a prototype for organized convective systems that dominate the upper tail of the precipitation frequency distribution and are likely responsible for the flash flood peaks in this region. The availability of high-resolution rainfall estimates from radar observations and a rain gauge network, together with indirect peak discharge estimates from a detailed post-event survey, provides the opportunity to study the hydrometeorological and hydrological mechanisms associated with this extreme storm and the ensuing flood. Radar-derived rainfall, streamgauge data and indirect estimates of peak discharges are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. The influence of storm structure, evolution and motion on the modeled flood hydrograph is examined by using the "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" (Zoccatelli et al., 2011). It is shown that downbasin storm motion had a noticeable impact on flood peak magnitude. Small runoff ratios (less than 20%) characterized the runoff response. The flood response can be reasonably well reproduced with the distributed hydrological model, using high resolution rainfall observations and model parameters calibrated at a river section which includes most of the area impacted by the storm.