Publication Date:
2019
Description:
〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉
〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 113〈/p〉
〈p〉Author(s): Sujan Ghimire, Ravinesh C. Deo, Nawin Raj, Jianchun Mi〈/p〉
〈div xml:lang="en"〉
〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉
〈div〉〈p〉The accurate prediction of global solar radiation (GSR) with remote sensing in metropolitan, regional and remote, yet solar-rich sites, is a core requisite for cleaner energy utilization, monitoring and conversion of renewable energy into usable power. Data-driven models that investigate the feasibility of solar-fueled energies, face challenges in respect to identifying their appropriate input data as such variables may not be available at all sites due to a lack of environmental monitoring system. In this paper, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite-derived predictors are employed to train three-phase hybrid SVR model for monthly 〈em〉GSR〈/em〉 prediction. Firstly, to acquire relevant model input features, MODIS variables are screened with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, and secondly, a Gaussian emulation method of sensitivity analysis is incorporated on all screened variables to ascertain their relative role in predicting 〈em〉GSR〈/em〉. To address pertinent issues of non-stationarities, PSO selected variables are decomposed with Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transformation prior to its incorporation in Support Vector Regression (SVR), constructing a three-phase PSO-W-SVR hybrid model where the hyper-parameters are acquired by evolutionary (〈em〉i.e〈/em〉., PSO & Genetic Algorithm) and Grid Search methods. Three-phase PSO-W-SVR hybrid model is benchmarked with alternative machine learning models. Thirty-nine model scenarios are formulated: 13 without feature selection (〈em〉e.g〈/em〉., SVR), 13 with feature selection (〈em〉e.g〈/em〉., PSO-SVR for two-phase models) and the remainder 13 with feature selection strategy coupled with data decomposition algorithm (〈em〉e.g〈/em〉., PSO-W-SVR leading to a three-phase model). Metrics such as skill score (〈em〉RMSE〈/em〉〈sub〉〈em〉SS〈/em〉〈/sub〉), root mean square error (〈em〉RMSE〈/em〉), mean absolute error (〈em〉MAE〈/em〉), Willmott’s (〈em〉WI〈/em〉), Legates & McCabe’s 〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si1.svg"〉〈mrow〉〈mo stretchy="true"〉(〈/mo〉〈msub〉〈mrow〉〈mi〉E〈/mi〉〈/mrow〉〈mrow〉〈mn〉1〈/mn〉〈/mrow〉〈/msub〉〈mo stretchy="true"〉)〈/mo〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉 and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients 〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si2.svg"〉〈mrow〉〈mo stretchy="true"〉(〈/mo〉〈msub〉〈mrow〉〈mi〉E〈/mi〉〈/mrow〉〈mrow〉〈mi〉N〈/mi〉〈mi〉S〈/mi〉〈/mrow〉〈/msub〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉) are applied to comprehensively evaluate prescribed models. Empirical results register high performance of three-phase hybrid PSO-W-SVR models, exceeding the prescribed alternative models. High predictive ability evidenced by a low 〈em〉RRMSE〈/em〉 and high 〈em〉E〈/em〉〈sub〉〈em〉1〈/em〉〈/sub〉 ascertains PSO-W-SVR hybrid model as considerably favorable in its capability to be enriched by MODIS satellite-derived variables. Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform algorithm is also seen to provide resolved patterns in satellite variables, leading to a superior performance compared to the other data-driven model. The research avers that a three-phase hybrid PSO-W-SVR model can be a viable tool to predict 〈em〉GSR〈/em〉 using satellite derived data as predictors, and is particularly useful for exploration of renewable energies where satellite footprint are present but regular environmental monitoring systems may be absent.〈/p〉〈/div〉
〈/div〉
〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉
〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1364032119304472-fx1.jpg" width="313" alt="Image 1" title="Image 1"〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉
Print ISSN:
1364-0321
Electronic ISSN:
1879-0690
Topics:
Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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