ALBERT

Description: Fire plays an important role in structuring vegetation in fire-prone regions worldwide. Progress has been made towards documenting the effects of individual fire events and fire regimes on vegetation structure; less is known of how different fire history attributes (e.g., time-since-fire, fire frequency) interact to affect vegetation. Using the temperate eucalypt ‘foothill’ forests of south-eastern Australia as a case-study system, we examine two hypotheses about such interactions: 1) that post-fire vegetation succession (e.g., time-since-fire effects) is influenced by other fire regime attributes, and 2) that the severity of the most recent fire overrides the effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Empirical data on vegetation structure were collected from 540 sites distributed across central and eastern Victoria, Australia. Linear mixed models were used to examine these hypotheses, and determine the relative influence of fire and environmental attributes on vegetation structure. Fire history measures, particularly time-since-fire, affected several vegetation attributes including ground and canopy strata; others such as low and sub-canopy vegetation were more strongly influenced by environmental characteristics like rainfall. There was little support for the hypothesis that post-fire succession is influenced by fire history attributes other than time-since-fire: only canopy regeneration was influenced by another variable (‘fire type’, representing severity). Our capacity to detect an overriding effect of the severity of the most recent fire was limited by a consistently weak effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Overall, results suggest the primary way that fire affects vegetation structure in foothill forests is via attributes of the most recent fire, both its severity and time since its occurrence: other attributes of fire regimes (e.g., fire interval, frequency) have less influence. The strong effect of environmental drivers such as rainfall and topography on many structural features show that foothill forest vegetation is also influenced by factors outside human control. While fire is amenable to human management, results suggest that at broad scales, structural attributes of these forests are relatively resilient to the effects of current fire regimes. Nonetheless, the potential for more frequent severe fires at short intervals, associated with a changing climate and/or fire management, warrant further consideration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. Here we present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using 9 years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus , and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus ) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Extensive outbreaks of bark beetles have killed trees across millions of hectares of forests and woodlands in western North America. These outbreaks have led to spirited scientific, public and policy debates about consequential increases in fire risk, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and communities are at particular risk from wildfires. At the same time, large wildfires have become more frequent across this region. Widespread expectations that outbreaks increase extent, severity and/or frequency of wildfires are based partly on visible and dramatic changes in foliar moisture content and other fuel properties following outbreaks, as well as associated modeling projections. A competing explanation is that increasing wildfires are driven primarily by climatic extremes, which are becoming more common with climate change. However, the relative importance of bark beetle outbreaks versus climate on fire occurrence has not been empirically examined across very large areas and remains poorly understood. The most extensive outbreaks of tree-killing insects across the western United States have been of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae ), which have killed trees over 〉 650,000 km 2 , mostly in forests dominated by lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta ). Here we show that outbreaks of MPB in lodgepole pine forests of the western United States have been less important than climatic variability for the occurrence of large fires over the past 29 years. In lodgepole pine forests in general, as well as those in the WUI, occurrence of large fires was determined primarily by current and antecedent high temperatures and low precipitation but was unaffected by preceding outbreaks. Trends of increasing co-occurrence of wildfires and outbreaks are due to a common climatic driver rather than interactions between these disturbances. Reducing wildfire risk hinges on addressing the underlying climatic drivers, rather than treating beetle-affected forests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western US, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The prediction of mosquito abundance is of central interest in addressing mosquito population dynamics and in forecasting the associated emerging and re-emerging diseases. However, little work has focused on the systematic evaluation of how well adult mosquito abundance can be predicted as a function of observational resolutions, aggregation scales, and prediction lead time. Here we use a state space reconstruction (SSR) approach to compare the predictability of mosquito population dynamics at weekly, biweekly, and monthly scales. We focus on the analysis of Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura populations monitored in Brunswick County (NC – USA) and find that prediction over a 7-day lead time is improved when daily observations are used, compared to the commonly used once-per-week sample. Our results demonstrate that daily observations of mosquito abundance contribute to improving mosquito predictability in two ways: (1) daily observations better capture fluctuations over short time scales, which are missed when sampling at coarser resolutions, (2) the aggregation of daily abundance observations reduces the impact of noise, thereby increasing the predictability of mosquito population dynamics as the aggregation scale is increased. We show that the evaluation of population dynamical models based on observed and predicted abundance can lead to a spuriously high apparent performance, due to the high auto-correlation in the observations used to update the model state at each successive time step. We show that the comparison of predicted and observed population change, expressed through per capita growth rates, leads to a more informative performance measure. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous U.S., and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability versus 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species’ potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increases in natural or non-crop habitat surrounding agricultural fields have been shown to be correlated with declines in insect crop pests. However, these patterns are highly variable across studies suggesting other important factors, such as abiotic drivers, which are rarely included in landscape models, may also contribute to variability in insect population abundance. The objective of this study was to explicitly account for the contribution of temperature and precipitation, in addition to landscape composition, on the abundance of a widespread insect crop pest, the soybean aphid ( Aphis glycines Matsumura), in Wisconsin soybean fields. We hypothesized that higher soybean aphid abundance would be associated with higher heat accumulation (e.g., growing degree days), and increasing non-crop habitat in the surrounding landscape, due to the presence of the overwintering primary hosts of soybean aphid. To evaluate these hypotheses, we used an ecoinformatics approach that relied on a large dataset collected across Wisconsin over a 9-year period (2003 – 2011), for an average of 235 sites per year (n=2,110 fields total). We determined surrounding landscape composition (1.5-km radius) using publicly available satellite-derived land cover imagery and interpolated daily temperature and precipitation information from the National Weather Service COOP weather station network. We constructed linear mixed models for soybean aphid abundance based on abiotic and landscape explanatory variables and applied model averaging for prediction using an information theoretic framework. Over this broad spatial and temporal extent in Wisconsin, we found that variation in growing season precipitation was positively related to soybean aphid abundance, while higher precipitation during the non-growing season had a negative effect on aphid populations. Additionally, we found that aphid populations were higher in areas with proportionally more forest, but were lower in areas where minor crops, such as small grains, were more prevalent. Thus, our findings support our hypothesis that including abiotic drivers increases our understanding of crop pest abundance and distribution. Moreover, by explicitly modeling abiotic factors, we may be able to explore how variable climate in tandem with land cover patterns may affect current and future insect populations, with potentially critical implications for crop yields and agricultural food webs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Predator-prey interactions shape ecosystem structure and function, potentially limiting the productivity of valuable species. Simultaneously, stochastic environmental forcing affects species productivity, often through unknown mechanisms. The interacting effects of trophic and environmental conditions complicate management of exploited ecosystems and have motivated calls for more holistic management via ecosystem-based approaches, yet the limitations to these approaches are not widely appreciated. The Chignik salmon fishery in Alaska is managed to achieve maximum sustainable yield for sockeye salmon, though research suggests that predation by less economically valuable, and thus not targeted, coho salmon during juvenile rearing limits the productivity of sockeye salmon. We examined the relationship between historical sockeye salmon recruitment and coho salmon abundance observed in the Chignik system and could not detect a clear effect of coho salmon abundance on sockeye salmon productivity, given existing data. Using simulation models, we examined the probability of detecting a known predation effect on sockeye salmon recruitment in the presence of observation error in coho salmon abundance and stochasticity in sockeye salmon recruitment. Increased recruitment stochasticity reduced the ability to detect predator effects in recruitment, an effect further strengthened when low frequency environmental variation was added to the system. Further, increased observation error biased estimates of predator effects towards zero. Thus, in systems with high observation error on predator abundances, estimates of predation effects will be substantially weaker than true effects. We examined the effects of stochasticity on the ability of an adaptive management program to learn about ecosystem structure and detect an effect of management actions intended to release a prey species from its predators. Simulation models revealed that even under scenarios of large predation effects on sockeye salmon, stochastic recruitment masked detection of an effect of increased coho salmon harvest for nearly a decade. These results highlight the challenges inherent in ecosystem-based management of predator-prey systems due to mismatched time-scales of ecosystem dynamics and the willingness of stakeholders to risk losses in order to test uncertain hypotheses. It is critical for stakeholders considering EBFM and adaptive management strategies to be aware of the potential timelines of perceiving ecosystem change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Timber harvest can adversely affect forest biota. Recent research and application suggest that retention of mature forest elements (‘retention forestry’), including unharvested patches (or ‘aggregates’) within larger harvested units, can benefit biodiversity compared to clearcutting. However, it is unclear whether these benefits can be generalized among the diverse taxa and biomes in which retention forestry is practiced. Lack of comparability in methods for sampling and analysing responses to timber harvest and edge creation presents a challenge to synthesis. We used a consistent methodology (similarly spaced plots or traps along transects) to investigate responses of vascular plants and ground-active beetles to aggregated retention at replicate sites in each of four temperate and boreal forest types on three continents: Douglas-fir forests in Washington, USA; aspen forests in Minnesota, USA; spruce forests in Sweden; and wet eucalypt forests in Tasmania, Australia. We assessed (i) differences in local (plot-scale) species richness and composition between mature (intact) and regenerating (previously harvested) forest; (ii) the lifeboating function of aggregates (capacity to retain species of unharvested forest); and whether intact forests and aggregates (iii) are susceptible to edge effects and (iv) influence the adjacent regenerating forest. Intact and harvested forests differed in composition but not richness of plants and beetles. The magnitude of this difference was generally similar among regions, but there was considerable heterogeneity of composition within and among replicate sites. Aggregates within harvest units were effective at lifeboating for both plant and beetle communities. Edge effects were uncommon even within the aggregates. In contrast, effects of forest influence on adjacent harvested areas were common and as strong for aggregates as for larger blocks of intact forest. Our results provide strong support for the widespread application of aggregated retention in boreal and temperate forests. The consistency of pattern in four very different regions of the world suggests that, for forest plants and beetles, responses to aggregated retention are likely to apply more widely. Our results suggest that through strategic placement of aggregates, it is possible to maintain the natural heterogeneity and biodiversity of mature forests managed for multiple objectives. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Distributions of foliar nutrients across forest canopies can give insight into their plant functional diversity and improve our understanding of biogeochemical cycling. We used airborne remote sensing and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) to quantify canopy foliar nitrogen (N) across ~164 km 2 of wet lowland tropical forest in the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. We determined the relative influence of climate and topography on the observed patterns of canopy foliar N using a gradient boosting model (GBM) technique. At a local scale, where climate and substrate where constant, we explored the influence of slope position on canopy N by quantifying canopy N on remnant terraces, their adjacent slopes and knife edged ridges. In addition, we climbed and sampled 540 trees and analyzed foliar N in order to quantify the role of species identity (phylogeny) and environmental factors in predicting canopy N. Observed canopy N heterogeneity reflected environmental factors working at multiple spatial scales. Across the larger landscape, elevation and precipitation had the highest relative influence on predicting canopy foliar N (30 and 24%), followed by soils (15%), site exposure (9%), compound topographic index (8%), substrate (6%), and landscape dissection (6%). Phylogeny explained ~75% of the variation in the filed collected foliar N data, suggesting that phylogeny largely underpins the response to the environmental factors. Taken together, these data suggest that a large fraction of the variance in canopy N across the landscape is proximately driven by species composition, though ultimately this is likely a response to abiotic factors such as climate and topography. Future work should focus on the mechanisms and feedbacks involved, and how shifts in climate may translate to changes in forest function. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Escalating wildfire in subalpine forests with stand-replacing fire regimes is increasing the extent of early-seral forests throughout the western US. Post-fire succession generates the fuel for future fires, but little is known about fuel loads and their variability in young post-fire stands. We sampled fuel profiles in 24-year-old post-fire lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia ) stands ( n =82) that regenerated from the 1988 Yellowstone Fires to answer three questions. (1) How do canopy and surface fuel loads vary within and among young lodgepole pine stands? (2) How do canopy and surface fuels vary with pre- and post-fire lodgepole pine stand structure and environmental conditions? (3) How have surface fuels changed between 8 and 24 years post-fire? Fuel complexes varied tremendously across the landscape despite having regenerated from the same fires. Available canopy fuel loads and canopy bulk density averaged 8.5 Mg ha -1 [range 0.0-46.6] and 0.24 kg m 3 [range: 0.0-2.3], respectively, meeting or exceeding levels in mature lodgepole pine forests. Total surface-fuel loads averaged 123 Mg ha -1 [range: 43 - 207], and 88% was in the 1000-hr fuel class. Litter, 1-hr, and 10-hr surface fuel loads were lower than reported for mature lodgepole pine forests, and 1000-hr fuel loads were similar or greater. Among-plot variation was greater in canopy fuels than surface fuels, and within-plot variation was greater than among-plot variation for nearly all fuels. Post-fire lodgepole pine density was the strongest positive predictor of canopy and fine surface fuel loads. Pre-fire successional stage was the best predictor of 100-hr and 1000-hr fuel loads in the post-fire stands and strongly influenced the size and proportion of sound logs (greater when late successional stands had burned) and rotten logs (greater when early successional stands had burned). Our data suggest that 76% of the young post-fire lodgepole pine forests have 1000-hr fuel loads that exceed levels associated with high-severity surface fire potential, and 63% exceed levels associated with active crown fire potential. Fire rotations in Yellowstone National Park are predicted to shorten to a few decades and this prediction cannot be ruled out by a lack of fuels to carry repeated fires. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Management of spatially structured species poses unique challenges. Despite a strong theoretical foundation, practitioners rarely have sufficient empirical data to evaluate how populations interact. Rather, assumptions about connectivity and source-sink dynamics are often based on incomplete, extrapolated or modeled data, if such interactions are even considered at all. Therefore, it has been difficult to evaluate whether spatially structured species are meeting conservation goals. We evaluated how estimated metapopulation structure responded to estimates of population sizes and dispersal probabilities, and to the set of populations included. We then compared outcomes of alternative management strategies that target conservation of metapopulation processes. We illustrated these concepts for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Snake River, USA. Our description of spatial structure for this metapopulation was consistent with previous characterizations. We found substantial differences in estimated metapopulation structure when we had incomplete information about all populations and when we used different sources of data (3 empirical, 2 modeled) to estimate dispersal, whereas responses to population size estimates were more consistent. Together, these findings suggest that monitoring efforts should target all populations occasionally and populations that play key roles frequently, and that multiple types of data should be collected when feasible. When empirical data are incomplete or of uneven quality, analyses using estimates produced from an ensemble of available datasets can help conservation planners and managers weigh near-term options. Doing so, we found tradeoffs in connectivity and source dominance in metapopulation-level responses to alternative management strategies that suggest which types of approaches may be inherently less risky. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing tree density that followed fire exclusion after the 1880s in the southwestern United States (US) may have also altered nutrient cycles and led to a carbon (C) sink that constitutes a significant component of the US C budget. Yet, empirical data quantifying century-scale changes in C or nutrients due to fire exclusion are rare. We used tree-ring reconstructions of stand structure from five ponderosa pine–dominated sites from across northern Arizona to compare live tree C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) storage between the 1880s and 1990s. Live tree biomass in the 1990s contained up to 3 times more C, N, and P than in 1880s. However, the increase in C storage was smaller than values used in recent US C budgets. Furthermore, trees that had established prior to the 1880s accounted for a large fraction (28 to 66%) of the C, N, and P stored in contemporary stands. Overall, our century-scale analysis revealed that forests of the 1880s were on a trajectory to accumulate C and nutrients in trees even in the absence of fire exclusion, either because growing conditions became more favorable after the 1880s or because forests in the 1880s included age or size cohorts poised for accelerated growth. These results may lead to a reduction in the C sink attributed to fire exclusion, and they refine our understanding of reference conditions for restoration management of fire-prone forests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was created in response to a request from the Office of Management and Budget that the U.S. Department of Agriculture - Natural Resource Conservation Service (USDA – NRCS) document the societal benefits anticipated to accrue from a major increase in conservation funding authorized by the 2002 Farm Bill. A comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy of rangeland conservation practices cost-shared with private landowners was unable to evaluate conservation benefits because outcomes were seldom documented. Four interrelated suppositions are presented to examine the causes underlying minimal documentation of conservations outcomes. These suppositions are: 1) benefits of conservation practices are considered a certainty so that documentation in not required, 2) minimal knowledge exchange between the USDA-NRCS and research organizations, 3) a paucity of conservation-relevant science, and 4) inadequate technical support for land owners following implementation of conservation practices. We then follow with recommendations to overcome potential barriers to documentation of conservation outcomes identified for each supposition. Collectively, this assessment indicates that the existing conservation practice standards are insufficient to effectively administer large conservation investments on rangelands and that modification of these standards alone will not achieve the goals explicitly stated by CEAP. We recommend that USDA-NRCS modify its conservation programs around a more comprehensive and integrative platform that is capable of implementing evidence-based conservation. Collaborative monitoring organized around landowner-agency-scientist partnerships would represent the focal point of a Conservation Program Assessment Network (CPAN). The primary network objective would be to establish missing information feedback loops between conservation practices and their agricultural and environmental outcomes to promote learning, adaptive management and innovation. Network information would be archived and made available to guide other, related conservation programs in relevant ecoregions. Restructuring conservation programs as recommend above would: 1) provide site specific information, learning and accountability that has been requested by CEAP and, 2) further advance balanced delivery of agricultural production and environmental quality goals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to simulate 200-year post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO 2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration resulted in 1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation, and 2) higher C:nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C:nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Restoring forest to hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded land has become a centerpiece of international plans to sequester carbon and conserve biodiversity. Forest landscape restoration will require scaling up ecological knowledge of secondary succession from small-scale field studies to predict forest recovery rates in heterogeneous landscapes. However, ecological field studies reveal widely divergent times to forest recovery, in part due to landscape features that are difficult to replicate in empirical studies. Seed rain can determine reforestation rate and depends on landscape features that are beyond the scale of most field studies. We develop mathematical models to quantify how landscape configuration affects seed rain and forest regrowth in degraded patches. The models show how landscape features can alter the successional trajectories of otherwise identical patches, thus providing insight into why some empirical studies reveal a strong effect of seed rain on secondary succession, while others do not. We show that seed rain will strongly limit reforestation rate when patches are near a threshold for arrested succession, when positive feedbacks between tree canopy cover and seed rain occur during early succession, and when directed dispersal leads to between-patch interactions. In contrast, seed rain has weak effects on reforestation rate over a wide range of conditions, including when landscape-scale seed availability is either very high or very low. Our modeling framework incorporates growth and survival parameters that are commonly estimated in field studies of reforestation. We demonstrate how mathematical models can inform forest landscape restoration by allowing land managers to predict where natural regeneration will be sufficient to restore tree cover. Translating quantitative forecasts into spatially-targeted interventions for forest landscape restoration could support target goals of restoring millions of hectares of degraded land and help mitigate global climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Successful pest-mammal eradications from remote islands have resulted in important biodiversity benefits. Near-shore islands can also serve as refuges for native biota but require ongoing effort to maintain low-pest or pest-free status. Three management options are available in the presence of reinvasion risk: (1) control-to-zero density, in which immigration may occur but reinvaders are removed; (2) sustained population suppression (to relatively low numbers); or (3) no action. Biodiversity benefits can result from options 1 and 2. The management challenge is to make evidence-based decisions on the selection of an appropriate objective and to identify a financially feasible control strategy that has a high probability of success. This requires understanding the pest species population dynamics and how it will respond to a range of potential management strategies, each with an associated financial cost. We developed a 2-stage modelling approach that consisted of: (1) Bayesian inferential modelling to estimate parameters for a model of pest population dynamics and control; and (2) a forward projection model to simulate a range of plausible management scenarios and quantify the probability of obtaining zero density within four years. We applied the model to an ongoing, six-year trapping program to control stoats ( Mustela erminea ) on Resolution Island, New Zealand. Zero density has not yet been achieved. Results demonstrate that management objectives were impeded by a combination of a highly fecund population, insufficient trap attractiveness and a substantial proportion of the population that did not enter traps. Immigration is known to occur because the founding population arrived on the island by swimming from the mainland. However, immigration rate during this study was indistinguishable from zero. The forward projection modelling showed that control-to-zero density was feasible but required greater than a 2-fold budget increase to intensify the trapping rate relative to population growth. The 2-stage modelling provides the foundation for a management program in which broad-scale trials of additional trapping effort or improved trap lures would test model predictions and increase our understanding of system dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The application of physiological measures to conservation monitoring has been gaining momentum and, while a suite of physiological traits are available to ascertain disturbance and condition in wildlife populations, glucocorticoids (i.e., GCs: cortisol and corticosterone) are the most heavily employed. The interpretation of GC levels as sensitive indicators of population change necessitates that GCs and metrics of population persistence are linked. However, the relationship between GCs and fitness may be highly context-dependent, changing direction, or significance, depending on the GC measure, fitness metric, life history stage, or other intrinsic and extrinsic contexts considered. We examined the relationship between baseline plasma corticosterone (CORT) levels measured at two periods of the breeding season and three metrics of fitness (offspring quality, reproductive output, and adult survival) in female tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ). Specifically, we investigated whether: i) a relationship between baseline CORT metrics and fitness exists in our population; ii) whether the inclusion of energetic contexts such as food availability, reproductive investment, or body mass could alter or improve the strength of the relationship between CORT and fitness; iii) whether energetic contexts could better predict fitness compared to CORT metrics. Importantly, we investigated these relationships in both natural conditions and under an experimental manipulation of foraging profitability (feather clipping) to determine the influence of an environmental constraint on GC-fitness relationships. We found a lack of relationship between baseline CORT and both short- and long-term metrics of fitness in control and clipped birds. In contrast, loss in body mass over reproduction positively predicted reproductive output (number of chicks leaving the nest) in control birds; however, the relationship was characterized by a low R 2 (5%), limiting the predictive capacity, and therefore the application potential, of such a measure in a conservation setting. Our results stress the importance of ground-truthing GC-fitness relationships and indicate that baseline GCs will likely not be easily employed as conservation biomarkers across many species and life history stages. Given the accumulating evidence of temporally-dynamic, inconsistent, and context-dependent GC-fitness relationships, placing effort towards directly measuring fitness traits, rather than plasma GC levels, will likely be more worthwhile for many conservation endeavours. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological processes operate across temporal and spatial scales. Anthropogenic disturbances impact these processes, but examinations of scale dependence in impacts are infrequent. Such examinations can provide important insight to wildlife-human interactions and guide management efforts to reduce impacts. We assessed spatiotemporal scale dependence in habitat selection of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in the Piceance Basin of Colorado, USA, an area of ongoing natural gas development. We employed a newly developed animal movement method to assess habitat selection across scales defined using animal-centric spatiotemporal definitions ranging from the local (defined from 5 hour movements) to the broad (defined from weekly movements). We extended our analysis to examine variation in scale dependence between night and day and assess functional responses in habitat selection patterns relative to the density of anthropogenic features. Mule deer displayed scale invariance in the direction of their response to energy development features, avoiding well pads and the areas closest to roads at all scales, though with increasing strength of avoidance at coarser scales. Deer displayed scale-dependent responses to most other habitat features, including land cover type and habitat edges. Selection differed between night and day at the finest scales, but homogenized as scale increased. Deer displayed functional responses to development, with deer inhabiting the least developed ranges more strongly avoiding development relative to those with more development in their ranges. Energy development was a primary driver of habitat selection patterns in mule deer, structuring their behaviors across all scales examined. Stronger avoidance at coarser scales suggests that deer behaviorally mediated their interaction with development, but only to a degree. At higher development densities than seen in this area, such mediation may not be possible and thus maintenance of sufficient habitat with lower development densities will be a critical best management practice as development expands globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In saltmarsh plant communities bottom-up pressure from nutrient enrichment is predicted to increase productivity, alter community structure, decrease biodiversity, and alter ecosystem functioning. Previous work supporting these predictions has been based largely on short-term, plot-level (e.g., 1-300 m 2 ) studies, which may miss landscape-level phenomena that drive ecosystem-level responses. We implemented an ecosystem-scale, 9-year nutrient experiment to examine how saltmarsh plants respond to simulated conditions of coastal eutrophication. Our study differed from previous saltmarsh enrichment studies in that we applied realistic concentrations of nitrate (70-100 μM NO 3 - ), the most common form of coastal nutrient enrichment, via tidal water at the ecosystem scale ( ca . 60,000 m 2 creeksheds). Our enrichments added a total of 1,700 kg N creek −1 y −1 , which increased N loading 10-fold versus reference creeks (low-marsh: 171 g N m −2 y −1 ; high-marsh: 19 g N m −2 y −1 ). Nutrients increased the shoot mass and height of low marsh, tall Spartina alterniflora ; however, declines in stem density resulted in no consistent increase in aboveground biomass. High-marsh plants S. patens and stunted S. alterniflora did not respond consistently to enrichment. Nutrient enrichment did not shift community structure, contrary to the prediction of nutrient-driven dominance of S. alterniflora and Distichlis spicata over S. patens . Our mild responses may differ the results of previous studies for a number of reasons. First, the limited response of the high marsh may be explained by loading rates orders of magnitude lower than previous work. Low loading rates in the high marsh reflect infrequent inundation, arguing that inundation patterns must be considered when predicting responses to estuarine eutrophication. Additionally, we applied nitrate instead of the typically-used ammonium, which is energetically favored over nitrate for plant uptake. Thus, the form of nitrogen enrichment used, not just N-load, may be important in predicting plant responses. Overall, our results suggest that when coastal eutrophication is dominated by nitrate and delivered via flooding tidal water, aboveground saltmarsh plant responses may be limited despite moderate-to-high water-column N concentrations. Furthermore, we argue that the methodological limitations of nutrient studies must be considered when using results to inform management decisions about wetlands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Most species that are negatively impacted when their densities are low aggregate to minimize this effect. Aggregation has the potential to change how Allee effects are expressed at the population level. We studied the interplay between aggregation and Allee effects in the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an irruptive bark beetle that aggregates to overcome tree defenses. By cooperating to surpass a critical number of attacks per tree, the mountain pine beetle is able to breach host defenses,oviposit and reproduce. Mountain pine beetles and Hymenopteran parasitoids share some biological features, the most notable of which is obligatory host death as a consequence of parasitoid attack and development. We developed spatiotemporal models of mountain pine beetle dynamics that were based on the Nicholson-Bailey framework but which featured beetle aggregation and a tree-level attack threshold. By fitting our models to data from a local mountain pine beetle outbreak, we demonstrate that due to aggregation, attack thresholds at the tree level can be overcome by a surprisingly low ratio of beetles per susceptible tree at the stand level. This results confirms the importance of considering aggregation in models of organisms that are subject to strong Allee effects. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to which compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote sensing-based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo-edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration, and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation, and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo-edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate-induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern U.S. and can inform management efforts to regulate grass-woody plant abundances. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species-area relationships have long been used to assess patterns of species diversity across scales. Here this concept is extended to spectral diversity using hyperspectral data collected by NASA's Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over western Michigan. This mixture of mesic forest and agricultural lands offers two end-points on the local-scale diversity continuum – one set of well mixed forest patches and one set of highly homogeneous agricultural patches. Using the sum of the first three principal component values and the principal components’ convex hull volume, spectral diversity was compared within and among these plots and to null expectations for perfectly random and perfectly patchy landscapes. Overall the spectral diversity area relationship confirms the patterns that would be expected for this landscape, but this application suggests that this approach could be extended to less well understood landscapes and could reveal key insights about the relative importance of different drivers of community assembly, even in the absence of additional data about plant functional traits or species’ identities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding how habitat and nutritional condition affect ungulate populations is necessary for informing management, particularly in areas experiencing carnivore recovery and declining ungulate population trends. Variations in forage species availability, plant phenological stage, and the abundance of forage make it challenging to understand landscape-level effects of nutrition on ungulates. We developed an integrated spatial modeling approach to estimate landscape-level elk ( Cervus elaphus ) nutritional resources in two adjacent study areas that differed in coarse measures of habitat quality and related the consequences of differences in nutritional resources to elk body condition and pregnancy rates. We found no support for differences in dry matter digestibility between plant samples or in phenological stage based on ground sampling plots in the two study areas. Our index of nutritional resources, measured as digestible forage biomass, varied among landcover types and between study areas. We found that altered plant composition following fires was the biggest driver of differences in nutritional resources, suggesting that maintaining a mosaic of fire history and distribution will likely benefit ungulate populations. Study area, lactation status and year affected fall body fat of adult female elk. Elk in the study area exposed to lower summer range nutritional resources had lower nutritional condition entering winter. These differences in nutritional condition resulted in differences in pregnancy rate, with average pregnancy rates of 89% for elk exposed to higher nutritional resources and 72% for elk exposed to lower nutritional resources. Summer range nutritional resources have the potential to limit elk pregnancy rate and calf production, and these nutritional limitations may predispose elk to be more sensitive to the effects of harvest or predation. Wildlife managers should identify ungulate populations that are nutritionally limited and recognize that these populations may be more impacted by recovering carnivores or harvest than populations inhabiting more productive summer habitats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Novel fire regimes are an important cause and consequence of global environmental change that involve interactions among biotic, climatic, and human components of ecosystems. Plant flammability is key to these interactions, yet few studies directly measure flammability or consider how multiple species with different flammabilities interact to produce novel fire regimes. Deserts of the southwestern USA are an ideal system for exploring how novel fire regimes can emerge when fire-promoting species invade ecosystems comprised of species that did not evolve with fire. In these deserts, exotic annual grasses provide fuel continuity across landscapes that did not historically burn. These fires often ignite a keystone desert shrub, the fire-intolerant creosote bush, Larrea tridentata (DC.) Coville. Ignition of Larrea is likely catalyzed by fuels produced by native plants that grow beneath the shrubs. We hypothesize that invasive and native species exhibit distinct flammability characteristics that in combination determine spatial patterns of fire spread and intensity. We measured flammability metrics of Larrea , two invasive grasses, Schismus arabicus and Bromus madritensis , and two native plants, the sub-shrub Ambrosia dumosa and the annual herb Amsinckia menziesii . Results of laboratory experiments show that the grasses carry fire quickly (1.32 cm/sec), but burn for short duration (0.5 min) at low temperatures. In contrast, native plants spread fire slowly (0.12 cm/sec), but burn up to eight times longer (4 min) and produced hotter fires. Additional experiments on the ignition requirements of Larrea suggest that native plants burn with sufficient temperature and duration to ignite dead Larrea branches (time to ignition: 2 min; temperature at ignition 692 °C). Once burning, these dead branches ignite living branches in the upper portions of the shrub. Our study provides support for a conceptual model in which exotic grasses are “spreaders” of fire and native plants growing beneath shrubs are “igniters” of dead Larrea branches. Once burning, flames produced by dead branches engulf the entire shrub, resulting in locally intense fires without historical precedent in this system. We suggest that fire models and conservation-focused management could be improved by incorporating the distinct flammability characteristics and spatial distributions of spreaders, igniters, and keystone shrubs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Why some species and lineages are more likely to be invasive than others is one of the most important unanswered questions in basic and applied biology. In particular, the relative contributions to the invasion process of factors like preadaptation to invasiveness in the native range, evolution post-colonization, and random vs. non-random sampling of colonist lineages remain unclear. Here, we use a powerful common garden approach to address the potential for a role for sensitivity to nutrient limitation in determining the invasiveness of particular lineages of Potamopyrgus antipodarum , a New Zealand freshwater snail that has become globally invasive. We quantified specific growth rate (SGR), an important fitness-related trait in this species, under high phosphorus (P) vs. low-P conditions for a diverse set of native and invasive P. antipodarum . This study revealed that native-range P. antipodarum experience a more severe decline in SGR in low-P conditions relative to SGR in high-P conditions than their invasive range counterparts. Although these results suggest resilience to P limitation in invasive lineages, the absence of significant absolute differences in SGR between native and invasive lineages indicates that a straightforward connection between response to P limitation and invasiveness in P. antipodarum is unlikely. Regardless, our data do demonstrate that invasive vs. native lineages of P. antipodarum exhibit consistently different responses to an important environmental variable that is rarely studied in the context of invasion success. Further studies directed at exploring and disentangling the roles of sampling effects, selection on preexisting variation, and evolution after colonization will be required to provide a comprehensive picture of the role (or lack thereof) of nutrient limitation in the global invasion of P. antipodarum as well for as other invasive taxa. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: An increasing number of studies have aimed to clarify the factors leading human groups to prioritize the use of some woody plant species when compared to others. Some of these studies have tested the apparency hypothesis in aiming to understand this phenomenon. According to the apparency hypothesis, the most commonly available local plant species on a forest path are the most useful to that local human population. However, the sparse and diverse nature of the results from studies investigating the factors that influence human exploitation of plant resources motivated us to perform a meta-analysis on the apparency hypothesis. We searched in the main databases (Scopus, Sciencedirect, Google Scholar and Scielo) for studies that correlated the environmental availability of woody species (estimated through vegetation parameters) with the importance degree of such species to the local human population (estimated by means of the use-value index). Overall, this meta-analysis supported the apparency hypothesis, although we also found high levels of heterogeneity in these studies. When the distinct uses of woody flora were considered separately, we found that local species availability is important for fuelwood (firewood and charcoal) and construction (houses, fences, etc.) purposes but does not explain medicinal and technological (object manufacture) plant use. We found no important differences in correlations values between the degree of species importance for people and the different vegetation parameters, although correlations are slightly higher for the dominance and importance value index. Our findings suggest that the exploitation of woody flora is influenced by local availability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological traps are threats to organisms, and exist in a range of biological systems. A subset of ecological trap theory is the “ethological trap”, whereby behaviors canalized by past natural selection become traps when environments change rapidly. Invasive predators are major threats to imperilled species and their ability to exploit canalized behaviors of naive prey is particularly important for the establishment of the predator and the decline of the native prey. Our study uses ecological theory to demonstrate that invasive predator controls require shifts in management priorities. Total predation rate (i.e., total response) is the product of both the functional response and numerical response of predators to prey. Functional responses are the changes in the rate of prey consumption by individual predators, relative to prey abundance. Numerical responses are the aggregative rates of prey consumption by all predators relative to prey density, which change with predator density via reproduction or migration, in response to changes in prey density. Traditional invasive predator management methods focus on reducing predator populations, and thus manage for numerical responses. These management efforts fail to manage for functional responses, and may not eliminate impacts of highly-efficient individual predators. We explore this problem by modelling the impacts of functional and numerical responses of invasive foxes depredating imperilled Australian turtle nests. Foxes exhibit exceptionally-efficient functional responses. A single fox can destroy 〉95% of turtle nests in a nesting area, which eliminates juvenile recruitment. In this case, the ethological trap is the ‘Arribada’ nesting strategy, an emergent behavior whereby most turtles in a population nest simultaneously in the same nesting grounds. Our models show that Arribada nesting events do not oversaturate foxes, and small numbers of foxes depredate all of the nests in a given Arribada. Widely scattering nests may reduce fox predation rates, but the long generation times of turtles combined with their rapid recent decline suggests that evolutionary changes in nesting strategy may be unlikely. Our study demonstrates that reducing populations of highly-efficient invasive predators is insufficient for preserving native prey species. Instead, management must reduce individual predator efficiency, independent of reducing predator population size. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Changed fire regimes have led to declines of fire-regime-adapted species and loss of biodiversity globally. Fire affects population processes of growth, reproduction and dispersal in different ways, but there is little guidance about the best fire regime(s) to maintain species population processes in fire-prone ecosystems. We use a process-based approach to determine the best range of fire intervals for keystone plant species in a highly-modified Mediterranean ecosystem in south-western Australia where current fire regimes vary. In highly-fragmented areas, fires are few due to limited ignitions and active suppression of wildfire on private land, while in highly connected protected areas fires are frequent and extensive. Using matrix population models, we predict population growth of seven Banksia species under different environmental conditions and patch connectivity, and evaluate the sensitivity of species survival to different fire management strategies and burning intervals. We discover that contrasting, complementary patterns of species life-histories with time since fire result in no single best fire regime. All strategies result in the local patch extinction of at least one species. A small number of burning strategies secure complementary species sets depending on connectivity and post-fire growing conditions. A strategy of no fire always leads to fewer species persisting than prescribed fire or random wildfire, while too-frequent or too-rare burning regimes lead to the possible local extinction of all species. In low landscape connectivity, we find a smaller range of suitable fire intervals, and strategies of prescribed or random burning result in a lower number of species with positive growth rates after 100 years on average compared with burning high connectivity patches. Prescribed fire may reduce or increase extinction risk when applied in combination with wildfire depending on patch connectivity. Poor growing conditions result in a significantly reduced number of species exhibiting positive growth rates after 100 years of management. By exploring the consequences of managing fire, we are able to identify which species are likely to disappear under a given fire regime. Identifying the appropriate complementarity of fire intervals, and their species-specific as well as community-level consequences, is crucial to reduce local extinctions of species in fragmented fire-prone landscapes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Assessments of large-scale disasters, such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, are problematic because while measurements of post-disturbance conditions are common, measurements of pre-disturbance baselines are only rarely available. Without adequate observations of pre-disaster organismal and environmental conditions, it is impossible to assess the impact of such catastrophes on animal populations and ecological communities. Here, we use long-term biological tissue records to provide pre-disaster data for a vulnerable marine organism. Keratin samples from the carapace of loggerhead sea turtles record the foraging history for up to 18 years, allowing us to evaluate the effect of the oil spill on sea turtle foraging patterns. Samples were collected from 76 satellite-tracked adult loggerheads in 2011 and 2012, approximately one to two years after the spill. Of the ten individuals that foraged in areas exposed to surface oil, none demonstrated significant changes in foraging patterns post spill. The observed long-term fidelity to foraging sites indicates that loggerheads in the northern Gulf of Mexico likely remained in established foraging sites, regardless of the introduction of oil and chemical dispersants. More research is needed to address potential long-term health consequences to turtles in this region. Mobile marine organisms present challenges for researchers to monitor effects of environmental disasters, both spatially and temporally. We demonstrate that biological tissues can reveal long-term histories of animal behavior and provide critical pre-disaster baselines following an anthropogenic disturbance or natural disaster. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing temperatures have resulted in reduced growth and increased tree mortality across large areas of western North American forests. Here we use tree-ring isotope chronologies (δ 13 C & δ 18 O) from live and dead trees from four locations in south-central Alaska to test whether white spruce trees killed by recent spruce beetle ( Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) outbreaks showed evidence of drought stress prior to death. Trees that were killed were more sensitive to spring/summer temperature and/or precipitation than trees that survived. At two of our sites we found greater correlations between the δ 13 C and δ 18 O chronologies and spring/summer temperatures in dead trees than in live trees, suggesting that trees that are more sensitive to temperature-induced drought stress are more likely to be killed. At one site, the difference between δ 13 C in live and dead trees was related to winter/spring precipitation, with dead trees showing stronger correlations between δ 13 C and precipitation, again suggesting increased water stress in dead trees. At all sites where δ 18 O was measured, δ 18 O chronologies showed the greatest difference in climate response between live and dead groups, with δ 18 O in live trees correlating more strongly with late winter precipitation than dead trees. Our results indicate that sites where trees are already sensitive to warm or dry early growing-season conditions experienced the most beetle-kill, which has important implications for forecasting future mortality events in Alaska. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the impacts of natural and human disturbances on forest biota is critical for improving forest management. Many studies have examined the separate impacts on fauna and flora of wildfire, conventional logging and salvage logging, but empirical comparisons across a broad gradient of simultaneous disturbances are lacking. We quantified species richness and frequency of occurrence of vascular plants, and functional group responses, across a gradient of disturbances that occurred concurrently in 2009 in the Mountain Ash forests of southeastern Australia. Our study encompassed replicated sites in undisturbed forest (~70 years post-fire), forest burned at low severity, forest burned at high severity, unburned forest that was clearcut logged, and forest burned at high severity that was clearcut salvage logged post-fire. All sites were sampled two and three years post-fire. Mean species richness decreased across the disturbance gradient from 30.1 spp/site on low severity burned sites and 28.9 spp/site on high severity burned sites, to 25.1 spp/site on clearcut sites and 21.7 spp/site on salvage logged sites. Low severity burned sites were significantly more species-rich than clearcut sites and salvage logged sites; high severity burned sites supported greater species richness than salvage logged sites. Specific traits influenced species’ sensitivity to disturbance. Resprouting species dominated undisturbed Mountain Ash forests, but declined significantly across the gradient. Fern and midstory trees decreased significantly in frequency of occurrence across the gradient. Ferns (excluding Bracken) decreased from 34% of plants in undisturbed forest to 3% on salvage logged sites. High severity burned sites supported a greater frequency of occurrence and species richness of midstory trees compared to clearcut and salvage logged sites. Salvage logging supported fewer midstory trees than any other disturbance category, and were distinctly different from clearcut sites. Plant life form groups, including midstory trees, shrubs and ferns, were dominated by very few species on logged sites. The differences in biotic response across the gradient of natural and human disturbances have significant management implications, particularly the need to reduce mechanical disturbance overall and to leave specific areas with no mechanical disturbance across the cut area during logging operations, to ensure the persistence of resprouting taxa. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We review and synthesize information on invasions of nonnative forest insects and diseases in the United States, including their ecological and economic impacts, pathways of arrival, distribution within the United States, and policy options for reducing future invasions. Nonnative insects have accumulated in United States forests at a rate of ~2.5 per yr over the last 150 yr. Currently the two major pathways of introduction are importation of live plants and wood packing material such as pallets and crates. Introduced insects and diseases occur in forests and cities throughout the United States, and the problem is particularly severe in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Nonnative forest pests are the only disturbance agent that has effectively eliminated entire tree species or genera from United States forests within decades. The resulting shift in forest structure and species composition alters ecosystem functions such as productivity, nutrient cycling, and wildlife habitat. In urban and suburban areas, loss of trees from streets, yards, and parks affects aesthetics, property values, shading, stormwater runoff, and human health. The economic damage from nonnative pests is not yet fully known, but is likely in the billions of dollars per year, with the majority of this economic burden borne by municipalities and residential property owners. Current policies for preventing introductions are having positive effects but are insufficient to reduce the influx of pests in the face of burgeoning global trade. Options are available to strengthen the defenses against pest arrival and establishment, including measures taken in the exporting country prior to shipment, measures to ensure clean shipments of plants and wood products, inspections at ports of entry, and post-entry measures such as quarantines, surveillance, and eradication programs. Improved data collection procedures for inspections, greater data accessibility, and better reporting would support better evaluation of policy effectiveness. Lack of additional action places the nation, local municipalities, and property owners at high risk of further damaging and costly invasions. Adopting stronger policies to reduce establishments of new forest insects and diseases would shift the major costs of control to the source and alleviate the economic burden now borne by homeowners and municipalities.

Description: Droughts and their negative effects on forest ecosystems are projected to increase under climate change for many regions. It has been suggested that intensive thinning could reduce drought impacts on established forests in the short-term. Most previous studies on the effect of thinning on drought impacts, however, have been confined to single forest sites. It is therefore still unclear how general and persisting the benefits of thinning are. This study assesses the potential of thinning to increase drought tolerance of the wide spread Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ) in Central Europe. We hypothesized 1) that increasing thinning intensity benefits the maintenance of radial growth of crop trees during drought (resistance) and its recovery following drought, 2) that those benefits to growth decrease with time elapsed since the last thinning and with stand age, and 3) that they may depend on drought severity as well as water limitations in pre- and post-drought periods. To test these hypotheses, we assessed the effects of thinning regime, stand age, and drought severity on radial growth of 129 Scots pine trees during and after drought events in 4 long-term thinning experiments in Germany. We find that thinning improved the recovery of radial growth following drought and to a lesser extent the growth resistance during a drought event. Growth recovery following drought was highest after the first thinning intervention and in recently and heavily thinned stands. With time since the last thinning, however, this effect decreased and could even become negative when compared to unthinned stands. Further, thinning helped to avoid an age-related decline in growth resistance (and recovery) following drought. The recovery following drought, but not the resistance during drought, was related to water limitations in the drought period. This is the first study that analyzed drought-related radial growth in trees of one species across several stands of different age. The interaction between thinning intensity and time since the last thinning underline the importance to distinguish between short- and long-term effects of thinning. According to our analysis, only thinning regimes, with relatively heavy and frequent thinning interventions would increase drought tolerance in pine stands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Humans have a profound effect on fire regimes by increasing the frequency of ignitions. Although ignition is an integral component of understanding and predicting fire, to date fire models have not been able to isolate the ignition location, leading to inconsistent use of anthropogenic ignition proxies. Here, we identified fire ignitions from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) burned area product (2000-2012) to create the first remotely sensed, consistently derived, and regionally comprehensive fire ignition data set for the western United States. We quantified the spatial relationships between several anthropogenic land use/disturbance features and ignition for ecoregions within the study area, and used hierarchical partitioning to test how the anthropogenic predictors of fire ignition vary among ecoregions. The degree to which anthropogenic features predicted ignition varied considerably by ecoregion, with the strongest relationships found in the Marine West Coast Forest and North American Desert ecoregions. Similarly, the contribution of individual anthropogenic predictors varied greatly among ecoregions. Railroad corridors and agricultural presence tended to be the most important predictors of anthropogenic ignition while population density and roads were generally poor predictors. Although human population has often been used as a proxy for ignitions at global scales, it is less important at regional scales when more specific land uses (e.g., agriculture) can be identified. The variability of ignition predictors among ecoregions suggests that human activities have heterogeneous impacts in altering fire regimes within different vegetation types and geographies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In their commentary on our recent article, “Where have all the people gone? Enhancing global Conservation using night lights and social media” (Levin et al., 2015), Tortato and Izzo (2016) agree with the manuscript's approach and major conclusion. However, Tortato and Izzo (2016) state that some of the areas identified by Levin et al. (2015) as “unprotected visitation hotspots” (page 2162) are actually located “in and around protected areas of the Pantanal.” Tortato and Izzo (2016) suggest that this mismatch may result from incompleteness of the version of the World Database on Protected Areas that we used in our global analysis (being from August 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the causes of within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. To understand how within- and among-population variation emerges, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, data to characterize individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart shared and individual contribution to the observed variation. We used long-term tag-recapture data to investigate and estimate within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus , an endemic freshwater salmonid with a narrow range. Only ten populations of pure marble trout persist in headwaters of Alpine rivers in western Slovenia. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have already caused the extinction of two populations in recent years. We estimated and determined causes of variation in growth, survival, and recruitment both within and among populations, and evaluated trade-offs between them. Specifically, we estimated the responses of these traits to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early life conditions, and extreme events. We found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on vital rates. Population density varied over time, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities (〉55% decrease in survival with respect to years with no floods) and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. Marble trout show a fast–to-slow continuum of life histories, with slow growth associated with higher survival at the population level, possibly determined by food conditions and age at maturity. Our work provides unprecedented insight into the causes of variation in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics in an endemic species that is teetering on the edge of extinction. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The control of vector mosquitoes is one of the biggest challenges facing humankind with the use of chemical pesticides often leading to environmental impact and the evolution of resistance. Although to a lesser extent, this also holds for Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis ( Bti ), the most widely used biological pesticide to control mosquito populations. This raises the need for the development of integrated pest management strategies that allow the reduction of Bti concentrations without loss of the mosquito control efficiency. To this end, we tested in a laboratory experiment the combined effects of larval exposure to a sublethal Bti concentration and predation risk cues on life history and physiology of larval and adult Culex pipiens mosquitoes. Besides natural predator kairomones and prey alarm cues, we also tested synthetic kairomones of Notonecta predators. Neither Bti nor predation risk cues affected mortality, yet when both stressors were combined mortality increased on average by 133% compared to the treatment with only predation risk cues. This synergistic interaction was also present when Bti was combined with synthetic kairomones. This was further reflected in changes of the composite index of population performance, which suggested lowered per capita growth rates in mosquitoes exposed to Bti but only when Bti was combined with synthetic kairomones. Furthermore, predation risk cues shortened larval development time, reduced mass at metamorphosis in males, and had an immunosuppressive effect in larval and adult mosquitoes which may affect the mosquito vector competence. We provide the first demonstration that synthetic kairomones may generate similar effects on prey as natural kairomones. The identified immunosuppressive effect of synthetic kairomones and the novel lethal synergism type between a biological pesticide and synthetic predator kairomones provide an important proof of principle illustrating the potential of this combination for integrated mosquito control and should in a next step be evaluated under more natural conditions. It may guide novel integrated pest management programs with Bti that incorporate synthetic kairomones and thereby can reduce environmental impact and evolution of resistance creating more efficient and sustainable mosquito control.

Description: The delivery of ecosystem services by mobile organisms depends on the distribution of those organisms, which is, in turn, affected by resources at local and landscape scales. Pollinator-dependent crops rely on mobile animals like bees for crop production, and the spatial relationship between floral resources and nest location for these central-place foragers influences the delivery of pollination services. Current models that map pollination coverage in agricultural regions utilize landscape-level estimates of floral availability and nesting incidence inferred from expert opinion, rather than direct assessments. Foraging distance is often derived from proxies of bee body size, rather than direct measurements of foraging that account for behavioral responses to floral resource type and distribution. The lack of direct measurements of nesting incidence and foraging distances may lead to inaccurate mapping of pollination services. We examined the role of local-scale floral resource presence from hedgerow plantings on nest incidence of ground-nesting bees in field margins and within monoculture, conventionally managed sunflower fields in California's Central Valley. We tracked bee movement into fields using fluorescent powder. We then used these data to simulate the distribution of pollination services within a crop field. Contrary to expert opinion, we found that ground-nesting native bees nested both in fields and edges, though nesting rates declined with distance into field. Further, we detected no effect of field-margin floral enhancements on nesting. We found evidence of an exponential decay rate of bee movement into fields, indicating that foraging predominantly occurred in less than 1% of medium-sized bees' predicted typical foraging range. Although we found native bees nesting within agricultural fields, their restricted foraging movements likely centralize pollination near nest sites. Our data thus predict a heterogeneous distribution of pollination services within sunflower fields, with edges receiving higher coverage than field centers. To generate more accurate maps of services, we advocate directly measuring the autecology of ecosystem service providers, which vary by crop system, pollinator species, and region. Improving estimates of the factors affecting pollinator populations can increase the accuracy of pollination service maps and help clarify the influence of farming practices on wild bees occurring in agricultural landscapes.

Description: Many migratory species are in decline and understanding these declines is challenging because individuals occupy widely divergent and geographically distant habitats during a single year and therefore populations across the range are interconnected in complex ways. Network modeling has been used to show, theoretically, that shifts in migratory connectivity patterns can occur in response to habitat or climate changes and that habitat loss in one region can affect sub-populations in regions that are not directly connected. Here, we use a network model, parameterized by integrating long-term monitoring data with direct tracking of ~100 individuals, to explain population trends in the rapidly declining Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ) and to predict future trends. Our model suggests that species-level declines in Wood Thrush are driven primarily by tropical deforestation in Central America but that protection of breeding habitat in some regions is necessary to prevent shifts in migratory connectivity and to sustain populations in all breeding regions. The model illustrates how shifts in migratory connectivity may lead to unexpected population declines in key regions. We highlight current knowledge gaps that make modeling full life-cycle population demographics in migratory species challenging but also demonstrate that modeling can inform conservation while these gaps are being filled.

Description: Large and severe wildfires have raised concerns about the future of forested landscapes in the southwestern United States, especially under repeated burning. In 2011, under extreme weather and drought conditions, the Las Conchas fire burned over several previous burns as well as forests not recently exposed to fire. Our purpose was to examine the influences of prior wildfires on plant community composition and structure, subsequent burn severity, and vegetation response. To assess these relationships, we used satellite-derived measures of burn severity and a nonmetric multidimensional scaling of pre- and post- Las Conchas field samples. Earlier burns were associated with shifts from forested sites to open savannas and meadows, oak scrub, and ruderal communities. These non-forested vegetation types exhibited both resistance to subsequent fire, measured by reduced burn severity, and resilience to reburning, measured by vegetation recovery relative to forests not exposed to recent prior fire. Previous shifts toward non-forested states were strongly reinforced by reburning. Ongoing losses of forests and their ecological values confirm the need for restoration interventions. However, given future wildfire and climate projections, there may also be opportunities presented by transformations toward fire-resistant and resilient vegetation types within portions of the landscape.

Description: Many invasive species experience intense intraspecific competition, because they are abundant in anthropogenically disturbed habitats where few native species persist. Species-specific competitive mechanisms that evolve in this context may offer novel, highly targeted means to control invasive taxa. We conducted laboratory experiments to evaluate the feasibility of this method of control, based on waterborne cues that are produced by tadpoles of the cane toad ( Rhinella marina ) to suppress the development of conspecific embryos. Our trials examined the nature and species-specificity of the effect, the robustness of the cue to freezing and storage, and the amounts required to suppress toad embryos. Our results were encouraging. The cue appears to be chemical rather than a biological organism, and may well be species-specific; the four species of native anurans that we tested were not influenced by toad larval cues. The cue retains its effectiveness after being frozen, but not after being dried, or after 7 d in water. It is effective at very low concentrations (the amount produced by three tadpoles within 750 L of water). Overall, the cane toad's suppressor pheromone may offer an effective new way to control invasive toads.

Description: Estimating extinction vulnerability for a large number of species presents significant challenges for researchers, but is of high importance considering the large number of species that are currently unassessed. We present a method using a type of artificial neural network (self organizing map; SOM), which utilizes the co-occurrence patterns of species to estimate each species’ vulnerability to extinction. We use this method on Australian bird assemblages and compare the SOM-generated rankings for vulnerability with assessments from the IUCN Red List for those species in which populations have actually been estimated. For species that have had their populations estimated, the SOM performed well in distinguishing those species ranked of least concern by IUCN from those species in one of the other IUCN categories. Further, 19 species that were identified as highly vulnerable by the SOM analysis have never had their populations estimated and have been ranked by the IUCN of least concern. We show how the SOM can identify spatial variation in vulnerability for a species, and identify those regions in Australia in which the resident species have the greatest levels of vulnerability (central Australia). We conclude that the SOM provides a useful tool for researchers and agencies dealing with conservation strategies focused on large numbers of species and we urge a more detailed assessment of the 19 bird species identified by this analysis as vulnerable to extinction.

Description: Human activities have exerted a powerful influence on the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) and drive changes that can be a challenge to predict given the influence of multiple environmental stressors. This study focused on understanding how land management and climate change have together influenced terrestrial N storage and watershed inorganic N export across boreal and sub-arctic landscapes in northern Sweden. Using long-term discharge and nutrient concentration data that have been collected continuously for over three decades, we calculated the hydrologic inorganic N export from nine watersheds in this region. We found a consistent decline in inorganic N export from 1985 to 2011 over the entire region from both small and large watersheds, despite the absence of any long-term trend in river discharge during this period. The steepest declines in inorganic N export were observed during the growing season, consistent with the hypothesis that observed changes are biologically mediated and are not the result of changes in long-term hydrology. Concurrent with the decrease in inorganic N export, we report sustained increases in terrestrial N accumulation in forest biomass and soils across northern Sweden. Given the close communication of nutrient and energy stores between plants, soils, and waters, our results indicate a regional tightening of the N cycle in an already N-limited environment as a result of changes in forest management and climate-mediated growth increases. Our results are consistent with declining inorganic N efflux previously reported from small headwater streams in other ecosystems and shed new light on the mechanisms controlling these patterns by identifying corresponding shifts in the terrestrial N balance, which have been altered by a combination of management activities and climate change.

Description: Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food–energy–environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergy potential in complex landscapes, creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergy production can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural land conversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergy crop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass Panicum virgatum , giant miscanthus Miscanthus × giganteus , and hybrid poplar Populus × sp.) under current climate and climate change scenarios resulting from moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions; (2) how maximum landscape yield, spatial allocation of crops, and bioenergy hotspots (areas with highest potential yield) varied among climate scenarios; and (3) how bioenergy hotspots overlapped with current crop production or lands with high development pressure. Under both climate change scenarios, mean annual yield of perennial grasses decreased (−4% to −39%), but yield of hybrid poplar increased (+8% to +20%) which suggests that a switch to woody crops would maximize bioenergy crop production. In total, maximum landscape yield increased by up to 90 000 Mg/yr (6%) in the 21st century due to increased poplar production. Bioenergy hotspots (〉18 Mg·ha −1 ·yr −1 ) consistently overlapped with high suburban/exurban development likelihood and existing row crop production. If bioenergy production is constrained to marginal (non-crop) lands, landscape yield decreased by 27%. The removal of lands with high development probability from crop production resulted in losses of up to 670 000 Mg/yr (40%). This study demonstrated that tradeoffs among bioenergy production, crop production, and exurban expansion in a mountainous changing rural landscape vary spatially with climate change over time. If markets develop, bioenergy crops could potentially counter losses of agricultural land to development.

Description: Fire is a major ecological process in many ecosystems worldwide. We sought to identify which attributes of fire regimes affect temporal change in the presence and abundance of Australian native mammals. Our detailed study was underpinned by time series data on 11 mammal species at 97 long-term sites in southeastern Australia between 2003 and 2013. We explored how temporal aspects of fire regimes influenced the presence and conditional abundance of species. The key fire regime components examined were: (1) severity of a major fire in 2003, (2) interval between the last major fire (2003) and the fire prior to that, and (3) number of past fires. Our long-term data set enabled quantification of the interactions between survey year and each fire regime variable: an ecological relationship missing from temporally restricted studies. We found no evidence of any appreciable departures from the assumption of independence of the sites. Multiple aspects of fire regimes influenced temporal variation in the presence and abundance of mammals. The best models indicated that six of the 11 species responded to two or more fire regime variables, with two species influenced by all three fire regime attributes. Almost all species responded to time since fire, either as an interaction with survey year or as a main effect. Fire severity or its interaction with survey year was important for most terrestrial rodents. The number of fires at a site was significant for terrestrial rodents and several other species. Our findings contain evidence of the effects on native mammals of heterogeneity in fire regimes. Temporal response patterns of mammal species were influenced by multiple fire regime attributes, often in conjunction with survey year. This underscores the critical importance of long-term studies of biota that are coupled with data sets characterized by carefully documented fire history, severity, and frequency. Long-term studies are essential to predict animal responses to fires and guide management of when and where (prescribed) fire or, conversely, long-unburned vegetation is needed. The complexity of observed responses highlights the need for large reserves in which patterns of heterogeneity in fire regimes can be sustained in space and over time.

Description: Prioritizing limited conservation funds for controlling biological invasions requires accurate estimates of the effectiveness of interventions to remove invasive species and their cost-effectiveness (cost per unit area or individual). Despite billions of dollars spent controlling biological invasions worldwide, it is unclear whether those efforts are effective, and cost-effective. The paucity of evidence results from the difficulty in measuring the effect of invasive species removal: a researcher must estimate the difference in outcomes (e.g. invasive species cover) between where the removal program intervened and what might have been observed if the program had not intervened. In the program evaluation literature, this is called a counterfactual analysis, which formally compares what actually happened and what would have happened in the absence of an intervention When program implementation is not randomized, estimating counterfactual outcomes is especially difficult. We show how a thorough understanding of program implementation, combined with a matching empirical design can improve the way counterfactual outcomes are estimated in nonexperimental contexts. As a practical demonstration, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of South Africa's Working for Water program, arguably the world's most ambitious invasive species control program, in removing invasive alien trees from different land use types, across a large area in the Cape Floristic Region. We estimated that the proportion of the treatment area covered by invasive trees would have been 49% higher (5.5% instead of 2.7% of the grid cells occupied) had the program not intervened. Our estimates of cost per hectare to remove invasive species, however, are three to five times higher than the predictions made when the program was initiated. Had there been no control (counterfactual), invasive trees would have spread on untransformed land, but not on land parcels containing plantations or land transformed by agriculture or human settlements. This implies that the program might have prevented a larger area from being invaded if it had focused all of its clearing effort on untransformed land. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical designs, it is possible to better evaluate the impacts of invasive species removal and therefore to learn from past experiences.

Description: Forest policymakers and managers have long sought ways to evaluate the capability of forest landscapes to jointly produce timber, habitat, and other ecosystem services in response to forest management. Currently, carbon is of particular interest as policies for increasing carbon storage on federal lands are being proposed. However, a challenge in joint production analysis of forest management is adequately representing ecological conditions and processes that influence joint production relationships. We used simulation models of vegetation structure, forest sector carbon, and potential wildlife habitat to characterize landscape-level joint production possibilities for carbon storage, timber harvest, and habitat for seven wildlife species across a range of forest management regimes. We sought to: (1) characterize the general relationships of production possibilities for combinations of carbon storage, timber, and habitat; and (2) identify management variables that most influence joint production relationships. Our 160,000-ha study landscape featured environmental conditions typical of forests in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon (US). Our results indicate that managing forests for carbon storage involves tradeoffs among timber harvest and habitat for focal wildlife species, depending on the disturbance interval and utilization intensity followed. Joint production possibilities for wildlife species varied in shape, ranging from competitive to complementary to compound, reflecting niche breadth and habitat component needs of species examined. Managing Pacific Northwest forests to store forest sector carbon can be roughly complementary with habitat for Northern Spotted Owl, Olive-sided Flycatcher, and Red Tree Vole. However, managing forests to increase carbon storage potentially can be competitive with timber production and habitat for Pacific Marten, Pileated Woodpecker, and Western Bluebird, depending on the disturbance interval and harvest intensity chosen. Our analysis suggest that joint production possibilities under forest management regimes currently typical on industrial forest lands (e.g., 40- to 80-year rotations with some tree retention for wildlife) represent but a small fraction of joint production outcomes possible in the region. Although the theoretical boundaries of the production possibilities sets we developed are probably unachievable in the current management environment, they arguably define the long-term potential of managing forests to produce multiple ecosystem services within and across multiple forest ownerships. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is expected to directly alter the composition of communities and the functioning of ecosystems across the globe. Improving our understanding of links between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across large spatial scales and rapid global change is a major priority to help identify management responses that will retain diverse, functioning systems. Here we address this challenge by linking projected changes in plant community composition and functional attributes (height, leaf area, seed mass) under climate change across Tasmania, Australia. Using correlative community-level modeling, we found that projected changes in plant community composition were not consistently related to projected changes in community mean trait values. In contrast, we identified specific mechanisms through which alternative combinations of projected functional and compositional change across Tasmania could be realized, including loss/replacement of functionally similar species (lowland grasslands/grassy woodlands) and loss of a small number of functionally unique species (lowland forests). Importantly, we demonstrate how these linked projections of change in community composition and functional attributes can be utilized to inform specific management actions that may assist in maintaining diverse, functioning ecosystems under climate change.

Description: The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Description: A major goal of remote sensing is the development of generalizable algorithms to repeatedly and accurately map ecosystem properties across space and time. Imaging spectroscopy has great potential to map vegetation traits that cannot be retrieved from broadband spectral data, but rarely have such methods been tested across broad regions. Here we illustrate a general approach for estimating key foliar chemical and morphological traits through space and time using NASA's Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-Classic). We apply partial least squares regression (PLSR) to data from 237 field plots within 51 images acquired between 2008 and 2011. Using a series of 500 randomized 50/50 subsets of the original data, we generated spatially explicit maps of seven traits (leaf mass per area ( M area ), percentage nitrogen, carbon, fiber, lignin, and cellulose, and isotopic nitrogen concentration, δ 15 N) as well as pixel-wise uncertainties in their estimates based on error propagation in the analytical methods. Both M area and %N PLSR models had a R 2 〉 0.85. Root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both variables were less than 9% of the range of data. Fiber and lignin were predicted with R 2 〉 0.65 and carbon and cellulose with R 2 〉 0.45. Although R 2 of %C and cellulose were lower than M area and %N, the measured variability of these constituents (especially %C) was also lower, and their RMSE values were beneath 12% of the range in overall variability. Model performance for δ 15 N was the lowest ( R 2 = 0.48, RMSE = 0.95‰), but within 15% of the observed range. The resulting maps of chemical and morphological traits, together with their overall uncertainties, represent a first-of-its-kind approach for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of forest functioning and nutrient cycling across a broad range of temperate and sub-boreal ecosystems. These results offer an alternative to categorical maps of functional or physiognomic types by providing non-discrete maps (i.e., on a continuum) of traits that define those functional types. A key contribution of this work is the ability to assign retrieval uncertainties by pixel, a requirement to enable assimilation of these data products into ecosystem modeling frameworks to constrain carbon and nutrient cycling projections.

Description: Nitrogen (N) loss from agriculture impacts ecosystems worldwide. One strategy to mitigate these losses, ecologically based nutrient management (ENM), seeks to recouple carbon (C) and N cycles to reduce environmental losses and supply N to cash crops. However, our capacity to apply ENM is limited by a lack of field-based high-resolution data on N dynamics in actual production contexts. We used data from a five-year study of organic cropping systems to investigate soil inorganic N (SIN) variability and nitrate (NO 3 − ) leaching in ENM. Four production systems initiated in 2007 and 2008 in central Pennsylvania varied in crop rotation, timing and intensity of tillage, inclusion of fallow periods, and N inputs. Extractable SIN was measured fortnightly from March through November throughout the experiment, and NO 3 -N concentration below the rooting zone was sampled with lysimeters during the first year of the 2008 start. We used recursive partitioning models to assess the importance of management and environmental factors to SIN variability and NO 3 − leaching and identify interactions between influential variables. Air temperature and tillage were the most important drivers of SIN across systems. The highest SIN concentrations occurred when the average air temperature three weeks prior to measurement was above 21°C. Above this temperature and within 109 days of moldboard plowing, average SIN concentrations were 22.1 mg N/kg soil; 109 days or more past plowing average SIN dropped to 7.7 mg N/kg soil. Other drivers of SIN dynamics were N available from manure and cover crops. Highest average leachate NO 3 -N concentrations (15.2 ppm) occurred in fall and winter when SIN was above 4.9 mg/kg six weeks prior to leachate collection. Late season tillage operations leading to elevated SIN and leachate NO 3 -N concentrations were a strategy to reduce weeds while meeting consumer demand for organic products. Thus, while tillage that incorporates organic N inputs preceding cash crops can promote synchrony of N mineralization and crop demand, late or post-season tillage promotes NO 3 − leaching by stimulating SIN pulses that are asynchronous with plant uptake.

Description: The control of overabundant vertebrates is often problematic. Much work has focused on population-level responses and overabundance due to anthropogenic subsidies. However, far less work has been directed at investigating responses following the removal of subsidies. We investigate the consequences of two consecutive perturbations, the closure of a landfill and an inadvertent poisoning event, on the trophic ecology (δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and δ 34 S), survival, and population size of an overabundant generalist seabird species, the Yellow-legged Gull ( Larus michahellis ). We expected that the landfill closure would cause a strong dietary shift and the inadvertent poisoning a decrease in gull population size. As a long-lived species, we also anticipated adult survival to be buffered against the decrease in food availability but not against the inadvertent poisoning event. Stable isotope analysis confirmed the dietary shift towards marine resources after the disappearance of the landfill. Although the survival model was inconclusive, it did suggest that the perturbations had a negative effect on survival, which was followed by a recovery back to average values. Food limitation likely triggered dispersal to other populations, while poisoning may have increased mortality; these two processes were likely responsible for the large fall in population size that occurred after the two consecutive perturbations. Life-history theory suggests that perturbations may encourage species to halt existing breeding investment in order to ensure future survival. However, under strong perturbation pulses the resilience threshold might be surpassed and changes in population density can arise. Consecutive perturbations may effectively manage overabundant species.

Description: Emissions from smelting not only contaminate water and soil with metals, but also induce extensive forest dieback and changes in resource availability and microclimate. The relative effects of such co-occurring stressors are often unknown, but this information is imperative in developing targeted restoration strategies. We assessed the role and relative effects of structural alterations of terrestrial habitat and metal pollution caused by century-long smelting operations on amphibian and reptile communities by collecting environmental and time- and area-standardized multivariate abundance data along three spatially replicated impact gradients. Overall, species richness, diversity, and abundance declined progressively with increasing levels of metals (As, Cu, and Ni) and soil temperature ( T s ) and decreasing canopy cover, amount of coarse woody debris (CWD), and relative humidity (RH). The composite habitat variable (which included canopy cover, CWD, T s , and RH) was more strongly associated with most response metrics than the composite metal variable (As, Cu, and Ni), and canopy cover alone explained 19–74% of the variance. Moreover, species that use terrestrial habitat for specific behaviors (e.g., hibernation, dispersal), especially forest-dependent species, were more severely affected than largely aquatic species. These results suggest that structural alterations of terrestrial habitat and concomitant changes in the resource availability and microclimate have stronger effects than metal pollution per se. Furthermore, much of the variation in response metrics was explained by the joint action of several environmental variables, implying synergistic effects (e.g., exacerbation of metal toxicity by elevated temperatures in sites with reduced canopy cover). We thus argue that the restoration of terrestrial habitat conditions is a key to successful recovery of herpetofauna communities in smelting-altered landscapes.

Description: Rainbow and brown trout have been intentionally introduced into tailwaters downriver of dams globally and provide billions of dollars in economic benefits. At the same time, recruitment and maximum length of trout populations in tailwaters often fluctuate erratically, which negatively affects the value of fisheries. Large recruitment events may increase dispersal downriver where other fish species may be a priority (e.g., endangered species). There is an urgent need to understand the drivers of trout population dynamics in tailwaters, in particular the role of flow management. Here, we evaluate how flow, fish density, and other physical factors of the river influence recruitment and mean adult length in tailwaters across western North America, using data from 29 dams spanning 1–19 years. Rainbow trout recruitment was negatively correlated with high annual, summer, and spring flow and dam latitude, and positively correlated with high winter flow, subadult brown trout catch, and reservoir storage capacity. Brown trout recruitment was negatively correlated with high water velocity and daily fluctuations in flow (i.e., hydropeaking) and positively correlated with adult rainbow trout catch. Among these many drivers, rainbow trout recruitment was primarily correlated with high winter flow combined with low spring flow, whereas brown trout recruitment was most related to high water velocity. The mean lengths of adult rainbow and brown trout were influenced by similar flow and catch metrics. Length in both species was positively correlated with high annual flow but declined in tailwaters with high daily fluctuations in flow, high catch rates of conspecifics, and when large cohorts recruited to adult size. Whereas brown trout did not respond to the proportion of water allocated between seasons, rainbow trout length increased in rivers that released more water during winter than in spring. Rainbow trout length was primarily related to high catch rates of conspecifics, whereas brown trout length was mainly related to large cohorts recruiting to the adult size class. Species-specific responses to flow management are likely attributable to differences in seasonal timing of key life history events such as spawning, egg hatching, and fry emergence.

Description: Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source–sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20–800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source–sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source–sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Description: Animal-derived nutrients play an important role in structuring nutrient regimes within and between ecosystems. When animals undergo repetitive, aggregating behavior through time, they can create nutrient hotspots where rates of biogeochemical activity are higher than those found in the surrounding environment. In turn, these hotspots can influence ecosystem processes and community structure. We examined the potential for reef fishes from the family Haemulidae (grunts) to create nutrient hotspots and the potential impact of these hotspots on reef communities. To do so, we tracked the schooling locations of diurnally migrating grunts, which shelter at reef sites during the day but forage off reef each night, and measured the impact of these fish schools on benthic communities. We found that grunt schools showed a high degree of site fidelity, repeatedly returning to the same coral heads. These aggregations created nutrient hotspots around coral heads where nitrogen and phosphorus delivery was roughly 10 and 7 times the respective rates of delivery to structurally similar sites that lacked schools of these fishes. In turn, grazing rates of herbivorous fishes at grunt-derived hotspots were approximately 3 times those of sites where grunts were rare. These differences in nutrient delivery and grazing led to distinct benthic communities with higher cover of crustose coralline algae and less total algal abundance at grunt aggregation sites. Importantly, coral growth was roughly 1.5 times greater at grunt hotspots, likely due to the important nutrient subsidy. Our results suggest that schooling reef fish and their nutrient subsidies play an important role in mediating community structure on coral reefs and that overfishing may have important negative consequences on ecosystem functions. As such, management strategies must consider mesopredatory fishes in addition to current protection often offered to herbivores and top-tier predators. Furthermore, our results suggest that restoration strategies may benefit from focusing on providing structure for aggregating fishes on reefs with low topographic complexity or focusing the restoration of nursery raised corals around existing nutrient hotspots.

Description: Agricultural expansion is the largest threat to global biodiversity. In particular, the rapid spread of tree plantations is a primary driver of deforestation in hyperdiverse tropical regions. Plantations tend to support considerably lower biodiversity than native forest, but it remains unclear whether plantation traits affect their ability to sustain native wildlife populations, particularly for threatened taxa. If animal diversity varies across plantations with different characteristics, these traits could be manipulated to make plantations more “wildlife friendly.” The degree to which plantations create edge effects that degrade habitat quality in adjacent forest also remains unclear, limiting our ability to predict wildlife persistence in mixed-use landscapes. We used systematic camera trapping to investigate mammal occurrence and diversity in oil palm plantations and adjacent forest in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Mammals within plantations were largely constrained to locations near native forest; the occurrence of most species and overall species richness declined abruptly with decreasing forest proximity from an estimated 14 species at the forest ecotone to ~1 species 2 km into the plantation. Neither tree height nor canopy cover within plantations strongly affected mammal diversity or occurrence, suggesting that manipulating tree spacing or planting cycles might not make plantations more wildlife friendly. Plantations did not appear to generate strong edge effects; mammal richness within forest remained high and consistent up to the plantation ecotone. Our results suggest that land-sparing strategies, as opposed to efforts to make plantations more wildlife-friendly, are required for regional wildlife conservation in biodiverse tropical ecosystems.

Description: Woodlands comprised of planted, nonnative trees are increasing in extent globally, while native woodlands continue to decline due to human activities. The ecological impacts of planted woodlands may include changes to the communities of understory plants and animals found among these nonnative trees relative to native woodlands, as well as invasion of adjacent habitat areas through spread beyond the originally planted areas. Eucalypts ( Eucalyptus spp.) are among the most widely planted trees worldwide, and are very common in California, USA. The goals of our investigation were to compare the biological communities of nonnative eucalypt woodlands to native oak woodlands in coastal central California, and to examine whether planted eucalypt groves have increased in size over the past decades. We assessed site and habitat attributes and characterized biological communities using understory plant, ground-dwelling arthropod, amphibian, and bird communities as indicators. Degree of difference between native and nonnative woodlands depended on the indicator used. Eucalypts had significantly greater canopy height and cover, and significantly lower cover by perennial plants and species richness of arthropods than oaks. Community composition of arthropods also differed significantly between eucalypts and oaks. Eucalypts had marginally significantly deeper litter depth, lower abundance of native plants with ranges limited to western North America, and lower abundance of amphibians. In contrast to these differences, eucalypt and oak groves had very similar bird community composition, species richness, and abundance. We found no evidence of “invasional meltdown,” documenting similar abundance and richness of nonnatives in eucalypt vs. oak woodlands. Our time-series analysis revealed that planted eucalypt groves increased 271% in size, on average, over six decades, invading adjacent areas. Our results inform science-based management of California woodlands, revealing that while bird communities would probably not be affected by restoration of eucalypt to oak woodlands, such a restoration project would not only stop the spread of eucalypts into adjacent habitats but would also enhance cover by western North American native plants and perennials, enhance amphibian abundance, and increase arthropod richness.

Description: Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species ( Lithobates sylvaticus , Ambystoma opacum , A. talpoideum , and A. maculatum ) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clear-cut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in 〈1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to ~50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Description: The increasing frequency of large, high-severity fires threatens the survival of old-growth specialist fauna in fire-prone forests. Within topographically diverse montane forests, areas that experience less severe or fewer fires compared with those prevailing in the landscape may present unique resource opportunities enabling old-growth specialist fauna to survive. Statistical landscape models that identify the extent and distribution of potential fire refuges may assist land managers to incorporate these areas into relevant biodiversity conservation strategies. We used a case study in an Australian wet montane forest to establish how predictive fire simulation models can be interpreted as management tools to identify potential fire refuges. We examined the relationship between the probability of fire refuge occurrence as predicted by an existing fire refuge model and fire severity experienced during a large wildfire. We also examined the extent to which local fire severity was influenced by fire severity in the surrounding landscape. We used a combination of statistical approaches, including generalized linear modeling, variogram analysis, and receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve analysis (ROC AUC). We found that the amount of unburned habitat and the factors influencing the retention and location of fire refuges varied with fire conditions. Under extreme fire conditions, the distribution of fire refuges was limited to only extremely sheltered, fire-resistant regions of the landscape. During extreme fire conditions, fire severity patterns were largely determined by stochastic factors that could not be predicted by the model. When fire conditions were moderate, physical landscape properties appeared to mediate fire severity distribution. Our study demonstrates that land managers can employ predictive landscape fire models to identify the broader climatic and spatial domain within which fire refuges are likely to be present. It is essential that within these envelopes, forest is protected from logging, roads, and other developments so that the ecological processes related to the establishment and subsequent use of fire refuges are maintained.

Description: Concern over rising atmospheric CO 2 and other greenhouse gases due to fossil fuel combustion has intensified research into carbon-neutral energy production. Approximately 15.8 million ha of pine plantations exist across the southeastern United States, representing a vast land area advantageous for bioenergy production without significant land-use change or diversion of agricultural resources from food production. Furthermore, intercropping of pine with bioenergy grasses could provide annually harvestable, lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks along with production of traditional wood products. Viability of such a system hinges in part on soil nitrogen (N) availability and effects of N competition between pines and grasses on ecosystem productivity. We investigated effects of intercropping loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda ) with switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) on microbial N cycling processes in the Lower Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA. Soil samples were collected from bedded rows of pine and interbed space of two treatments, composed of either volunteer native woody and herbaceous vegetation (pine–native) or pure switchgrass (pine–switchgrass) in interbeds. An in vitro 15 N pool-dilution technique was employed to quantify gross N transformations at two soil depths (0–5 and 5–15 cm) on four dates in 2012–2013. At the 0–5 cm depth in beds of the pine–switchgrass treatment, gross N mineralization was two to three times higher in November and February compared to the pine–native treatment, resulting in increased NH 4 + availability. Gross and net nitrification were also significantly higher in February in the same pine beds. In interbeds of the pine–switchgrass treatment, gross N mineralization was lower from April to November, but higher in February, potentially reflecting positive effects of switchgrass root-derived C inputs during dormancy on microbial activity. These findings indicate soil N cycling and availability has increased in pine beds of the pine–switchgrass treatment compared to those of the pine–native treatment, potentially alleviating any negative effects of N competition between pine and switchgrass. We expect that reduced soil C in the pine–switchgrass treatment, effects of pine and switchgrass rooting on soil C availability, and plant N demand are major factors influencing soil N transformations. Future research should examine rooting architecture in intercropped systems and the effects on soil microbial communities and function.

Description: Identifying spatiotemporal hotspots is important for understanding basic ecological processes, but is particularly important for species at risk. A number of terrestrial and aquatic species are indirectly affected by anthropogenic impacts, simply because they tend to be associated with species that are targeted for removals. Using newly developed statistical models that allow for the inclusion of time-varying spatial effects, we examine how the co-occurrence of a targeted and nontargeted species can be modeled as a function of environmental covariates (temperature, depth) and interannual variability. The nontarget species in our case study (eulachon) is listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and is encountered by fisheries off the U.S. West Coast that target pink shrimp. Results from our spatiotemporal model indicated that eulachon bycatch risk decreases with depth and has a convex relationship with sea surface temperature. Additionally, we found that over the 2007–2012 period, there was support for an increase in eulachon density from both a fishery data set (+40%) and a fishery-independent data set (+55%). Eulachon bycatch has increased in recent years, but the agreement between these two data sets implies that increases in bycatch are not due to an increase in incidental targeting of eulachon by fishing vessels, but because of an increasing population size of eulachon. Based on our results, the application of spatiotemporal models to species that are of conservation concern appears promising in identifying the spatial distribution of environmental and anthropogenic risks to the population.

Description: Large parts of sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing rapid changes in land use and land cover, driven largely by the expansion of small-scale shifting cultivation. This practice creates complex mosaic landscapes with active agricultural fields and patches of mature woodland, interspersed with remnant patches in various stages of regrowth. Our objective here was to examine the rate and extent to which carbon stocks in trees and soils recover after cultivation, and detail how this disturbance and regrowth affect patterns in tree species composition and diversity over 40 years of succession in a miombo woodland landscape in southeast Tanzania. We sampled 67 areas, including plots previously cleared for cultivation, active fields, and mature woodlands for reference purposes. Sites were further stratified by soil texture to test for associated effects. Tree carbon stocks accumulated at an average rate of 0.83 ± 0.10 Mg C·ha −1 ·yr −1 , with soil texture having no clear impact on accumulation rates. Bulk soil carbon stocks on both soil types appeared unaffected by both the initial land clearance and the subsequent regrowth, which resulted in no significant changes over time. Tree species diversity in regrowing plots developed rapidly and within ~10 years was equivalent to that of mature woodland. Many of the species found in mature woodlands reappeared relatively quickly after abandonment, although species composition is expected to take considerably longer to recover, with at least 60–80 years required for the compositional similarity between regrowing and mature woodlands to reach levels similar to that among nearby mature woodlands. Through impacts on β-diversity, disturbance was also found to increase the total number of tree species present in the landscape, with many of the recorded species only found in regrowing woodlands. Our results are of relevance to carbon sequestration projects by helping to inform the potential future carbon and biodiversity benefits of restoring disturbed habitats (REDD+). At a time where the use of shifting cultivation is threatened by shifts to larger-scale, commercial agriculture, we show that secondary woodland habitats can retain considerable biodiversity value, and act as carbon sinks.

Description: Resistance to the use of prescribed fire is strong among many private land managers despite the advantages it offers for maintaining fire-adapted ecosystems. Even managers who are aware of the benefits of using prescribed fire as a management tool avoid using it, citing potential liability as a major reason for their aversion. Recognizing the importance of prescribed fire for ecosystem management and the constraints current statutory schemes impose on its use, several states in the United States have undertaken prescribed burn statutory reform. The stated purpose of these statutory reforms, often called “right to burn” or “prescribed burning” acts, is to encourage prescribed burning for resource protection, public safety, and land management. Our research assessed the consequences of prescribed burn statutory reform by identifying legal incentives and impediments to prescribed fire application for ecosystem restoration and management, as well as fuel reduction. Specifically, we explored the relationship between prescribed burning laws and decisions made by land managers by exploiting a geographic-based natural experiment to compare landowner-prescribed fire use in contiguous counties with different regulations and legal liability standards. Controlling for potentially confounding variables, we found that private landowners in counties with gross negligence liability standards burn significantly more hectares than those in counties with simple negligence standards ( F 6,72 = 4.16, P = 0.046). There was no difference in hectares burned on private land between counties with additional statutorily mandated regulatory requirements and those requiring only a permit to complete a prescribed burn ( F 6,72 = 1.42, P = 0.24) or between counties with burn ban exemptions for certified prescribed burn managers and those with no exemptions during burn bans ( F 6,72 = 1.39, P = 0.24). Lawmakers attempting to develop prescribed burning statutes to promote the safe use of prescribed fire should consider the benefits of lower legal liability standards in conjunction with regulatory requirements that promote safety for those managing forests and rangelands with fire. Moreover, ecologists and land managers might be better prepared and motivated to educate stakeholder groups who influence prescribed fire policies if they are cognizant of the manner in which policy regulations and liability concerns create legal barriers that inhibit the implementation of effective ecosystem management strategies.

Description: Predicting the effects of fire on biota is important for biodiversity conservation in fire-prone landscapes. Time since fire is often used to predict the occurrence of fauna, yet for many species, it is a surrogate variable and it is temporal change in resource availability to which animals actually respond. Therefore prediction of fire–fauna relationships will be uncertain if time since fire is not strongly related to resources. In this study, we used a space-for-time substitution across a large diverse landscape to investigate interrelationships between the occurrence of ground-dwelling mammals, time since fire, and structural resources. We predicted that much variation in habitat structure would remain unexplained by time since fire and that habitat structure would predict species' occurrence better than time since fire. In line with predictions, we found that time since fire was moderately correlated with habitat structure yet was a poor surrogate for mammal occurrence. Variables representing habitat structure were better predictors of occurrence than time since fire for all species considered. Our results suggest that time since fire is unlikely to be a useful surrogate for ground-dwelling mammals in heterogeneous landscapes. Faunal conservation in fire-prone landscapes will benefit from a combined understanding of fauna–resource relationships and the ways in which fire (including planned fires and wildfires) alters the spatial and temporal distribution of faunal resources.

Description: Habitat use is often examined at a species or population level, but patterns likely differ within a species, as a function of the sex, breeding colony, and current breeding status of individuals. Hence, within-species differences should be considered in habitat models when analyzing and predicting species distributions, such as predicted responses to expected climate change scenarios. Also, species' distribution data obtained by different methods (vessel-survey and individual tracking) are often analyzed separately rather than integrated to improve predictions. Here, we eventually fit generalized additive models for Streaked Shearwaters Calonectris leucomelas using tracking data from two different breeding colonies in the Northwestern Pacific and visual observer data collected during a research cruise off the coast of western Japan. The tracking-based models showed differences among patterns of relative density distribution as a function of life history category (colony, sex, and breeding conditions). The integrated tracking-based and vessel-based bird count model incorporated ecological states rather than predicting a single surface for the entire species. This study highlights both the importance of including ecological and life history data and integrating multiple data types (tag-based tracking and vessel count) when examining species–environment relationships, ultimately advancing the capabilities of species distribution models.

Description: Photosynthetic capacity, determined by light harvesting and carboxylation reactions, is a key plant trait that determines the rate of photosynthesis; however, in Earth System Models (ESMs) at a reference temperature, it is either a fixed value for a given plant functional type or derived from a linear function of leaf nitrogen content. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis that considered correlations of environmental factors with photosynthetic capacity as determined by maximum carboxylation ( V c,m ) rate scaled to 25°C (i.e., V c,25 ; μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ) and maximum electron transport rate ( J max) scaled to 25°C (i.e., J 25 ; μmol electron·m −2 ·s −1 ) at the global scale. Our results showed that the percentage of variation in observed V c,25 and J 25 explained jointly by the environmental factors (i.e., day length, radiation, temperature, and humidity) were 2–2.5 times and 6–9 times of that explained by area-based leaf nitrogen content, respectively. Environmental factors influenced photosynthetic capacity mainly through photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency, rather than through leaf nitrogen content. The combination of leaf nitrogen content and environmental factors was able to explain ~56% and ~66% of the variation in V c,25 and J 25 at the global scale, respectively. Our analyses suggest that model projections of plant photosynthetic capacity and hence land–atmosphere exchange under changing climatic conditions could be substantially improved if environmental factors are incorporated into algorithms used to parameterize photosynthetic capacity in ESMs.

Description: Increasing pressures for food, fiber, and fuel continue to drive global land-use changes. Efforts to optimize ecosystem services under alternative land uses are often hampered by the complex interactions and trade-offs among them. We examined the effects of land-use changes on ecosystem carbon storage and groundwater recharge in grasslands of Argentina and the United States to 1) understand the relationships between both services, 2) predict their responses to vegetation shifts across environmental gradients, and 3) explore how market or policy incentives for ecosystem services could affect land-use changes. A trade-off of ecosystem services was evident in most cases, with woody encroachment increasing carbon storage (+29 Mg C/ha) but decreasing groundwater recharge (-7.3 mm/yr) and conversions to rain-fed cultivation driving opposite changes (-32 Mg C/ha vs. +13 mm/yr). In contrast, crops irrigated with ground water tended to reduce both services compared to the natural grasslands they replaced. Combining economic values of the agricultural products together with the services, we highlight potentials for relatively modest financial incentives for ecosystem services to abate land-use changes, and for incentives for carbon to drive land-use decisions over those of water. Our findings also identify key opportunities and caveats for some win-win and lose-lose land-use changes for more integrative and sustainable strategies for land management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Fertilizer applications are poised to increase across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but the fate of added nitrogen (N) is largely unknown. We measured vertical distributions and temporal variations of soil inorganic N following fertilizer application in two maize ( Zea mays L .)-growing regions of contrasting soil type. Fertilizer trials were established on a clayey soil in Yala, Kenya and on a sandy soil in Tumbi, Tanzania, with application rates of 0-200 kg N ha −1 yr −1 . Soil profiles were collected (0-400 cm) annually (for 3 years in Yala and 2 years in Tumbi) to examine changes in inorganic N pools. Topsoils (0-15 cm) were collected every 3-6 weeks to determine how precipitation and fertilizer management influenced plant-available soil N. Fertilizer management altered soil inorganic N, and there were large differences between sites that were consistent with differences in soil texture. Initial soil N pools were larger in Yala than Tumbi (240 vs. 79 kg ha −1 ). Inorganic N pools did not change in Yala (132 kg ha −1 ), but increased four-fold after two years of cultivation and fertilization in Tumbi (371 kg ha −1 ). Intra-annual variability in NO 3 - -N concentrations (3-33 μg g −1 ) Tumbi topsoils strongly suggested that the sandier soils were prone to high leaching losses. Information on soil inorganic N pools and movement through soil profiles can be an important way of assessing vulnerability of different SSA croplands to N losses and determining best fertilizer management practices N application rates increase. Better soil biophysical data will be important when projecting potential environmental effects of a dramatic change to the N cycle in intensifying African croplands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Evaluating long-term contaminant effects on wildlife populations depends on spatial information about habitat quality, heterogeneity in contaminant exposure, and sensitivities and distributions of species integrated into a systems modeling approach. Rarely is this information readily available, making it difficult to determine the applicability of realistic models to quantify population-level risks. To evaluate the trade-offs between data demands and increased specificity of spatially explicit models for population-level risk assessments, we developed a model for a standard toxicity test species, the sheepshead minnow ( Cyprinodon variegatus ) exposed to oil contamination following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and compared the output with various levels of model complexity to a standard risk quotient approach. The model uses habitat and fish occupancy data collected over five sampling periods throughout 2008-2010 in Pensacola and Choctawhatchee Bays, Florida, to predict species distribution, field-collected and publically available data on oil distribution and concentration, and chronic toxicity data from laboratory assays applied to a matrix population model. The habitat suitability model established distribution of fish within Barataria Bay, Louisiana, and the population model projected the dynamics of the species in the study area over a five-year period (October 2009 – September 2014). Vital rates were modified according to estimated contaminant concentrations to simulate oil exposure effects. To evaluate the differences in levels of model complexity, simulations varied from temporally and spatially explicit, including seasonal variation and location-specific oiling, to simple interpretations of a risk quotient derived for the study area. The results of this study indicate that species distribution, as well as spatially and temporally variable contaminant concentrations, can provide a more ecologically relevant evaluation of species recovery from catastrophic environmental impacts but might not be cost-effective or efficient for rapid assessment needs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Few estimates of migration rates or descriptions of behaviour or survival exist for wild populations of outmigrating Pacific salmon smolts from natal freshwater rearing areas to the ocean. Using acoustic transmitters and fixed receiver arrays across four years (2010-2013), we tracked the migration of 〉1,850 wild sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) smolts from Chilko Lake, British Columbia to the coastal Pacific Ocean (〉1,000 km distance). Cumulative survival to the ocean ranged 3-10% among years, although this may be slightly underestimated due to technical limitations at the final receiver array. Distinct spatial patterns in both behaviour and survival were observed through all years. In small, clear, upper-river reaches, downstream migration largely occurred at night at speeds up to 50 km d −1 and coincided with poor survival. Among years, only 57-78% of smolts survived the first 80 km. Parallel laboratory experiments revealed excellent short-term survival and unhindered swimming performance of dummy-tagged smolts, suggesting that predators rather than tagging effects were responsible for the initial high mortality of acoustic-tagged smolts. Migration speeds increased in the Fraser River mainstem (~220 km d −1 in some years), diel movement patterns ceased, and smolt survival generally exceeded 90% in this segment. Marine movement rates and survival were variable across years, with among-year segment-specific survival being the most variable and lowest (19-61%) during the final (and longest – 240 km) marine migration segment. Osmoregulatory preparedness was not expected to influence marine survival, as smolts could maintain normal levels of plasma chloride when experimentally exposed to saltwater (30 ppt) immediately upon commencing their migration from Chilko Lake. Transportation of smolts downstream generally increased survival to the farthest marine array. The act of tagging may have affected smolts in the marine environment in some years as dummy-tagged fish had poorer survival than control fish in saltwater laboratory-based experiments. Current fisheries models for forecasting the number of adult sockeye returning to spawn have been inaccurate in recent years and generally do not incorporate juvenile or smolt survival information. Our results highlight significant potential for early migration conditions to influence adult recruitment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Physical removal (e.g., harvest via traps or nets) of mature individuals may be a cost-effective or socially-acceptable alternative to chemical control strategies for invasive species, but requires knowledge of the spatial distribution of a population over time. We used acoustic telemetry to determine the current and possible future role of traps to control and assess invasive sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus , in the St. Marys River, the connecting channel between Lake Superior and Lake Huron. Exploitation rates (i.e., fractions of an adult sea lamprey population removed by traps) at two upstream locations were compared among three years and two points of entry to the system. Telemetry receivers throughout the drainage allowed trap performance (exploitation rate) to be partitioned into two components: proportion of migrating sea lampreys that visited trap sites (availability) and proportion of available sea lampreys that were caught by traps (local trap efficiency). Estimated exploitation rates were well below those needed to provide population control in the absence of lampricides and were limited by availability and local trap efficiency. Local trap efficiency estimates for acoustic-tagged sea lampreys were lower than analogous estimates regularly obtained using traditional mark-recapture methods, suggesting that abundance had been previously under-estimated. Results suggested major changes would be required to substantially increase catch, including: improvements to existing traps, installation of new traps, or other modifications to attract and retain more sea lampreys. This case study also shows how bias associated with telemetry tags can be estimated and incorporated in models to improve inferences about parameters that are directly relevant to fishery management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Effective management of social-ecological systems requires an understanding of the complex interactions between people and the environment. In recreational fisheries, which are prime examples of social-ecological systems, anglers are analogous to mobile predators in natural predator-prey systems, and individual fisheries in lakes across a region are analogous to a spatially structured landscape of prey patches. Hence, effective management of recreational fisheries across large spatial scales requires an understanding of the dynamic interactions among ecological density-dependent processes, landscape-level characteristics, and angler behaviours. We focused on the stocked component of the open access Rainbow Trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) fishery in British Columbia, and we used an experimental approach wherein we manipulated stocking densities in a subset of 34 lakes in which we monitored angler effort, fish abundance, and fish size for up to seven consecutive years. We used an empirically derived relationship between fish abundance and fish size across Rainbow Trout populations in BC to provide a measure of catch-based fishing quality that accounts for the size-abundance trade off in this system. We replicated our experimental manipulation in two regions known to have different angler populations and broad-scale access costs. We hypothesized that angler effort would respond to variation in stocking density, resulting in spatial heterogeneity in angler effort but homogeneity in catch-based fishing quality within regions. We found that there is an intermediate stocking density for a given lake or region at which angler effort is maximized (i.e., an ‘optimal’ stocking density), and that this stocking density depends on latent effort and lake accessibility. Furthermore, we found no clear effect of stocking density on our measure of catch-based fishing quality, suggesting that angler effort homogenizes catch-related attributes leading to an eroded relationship between stocking density and catch-based fishing quality at the time-scale of annual surveys. We conclude that declines in fishing quality resulting from understocking (due to declines in catch rate with low fish abundance) and overstocking (due to suppressed growth and limited recruitment at high density) give an optimal stocking rate that depends on accessibility and latent effort. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The widespread replacement of wild ungulate herbivores by domestic livestock in African savannas is composed of two interrelated phenomena: 1) loss or reduction in numbers of individual wildlife species or guilds, and 2) addition of livestock to the system. Each can have important implications for plant community dynamics. Yet very few studies have experimentally addressed the individual, combined, and potentially interactive effects of wild versus domestic herbivore species on herbaceous plant communities within a single system. Additionally, there is little information about whether, and in which contexts, livestock might functionally “replace” native herbivore wildlife or, alternatively, have fundamentally different effects on plant species composition. The Kenya Long-term Exclosure Experiment (KLEE), which has been running since 1995, is comprised of six treatment combinations of mega-herbivores, meso-herbivore ungulate wildlife, and cattle. We sampled herbaceous vegetation 25 times between 1999 and 2013. We used partial redundancy analysis and linear mixed models to assess effects of herbivore treatments on overall plant community composition and key plant species. Plant communities in the six different herbivore treatments shifted directionally over time and diverged from each other substantially by 2013. Plant community composition was strongly related (R 2 = 0.92) to residual plant biomass, a measure of herbivore utilization. Addition of any single herbivore type (cattle, wildlife, or mega-herbivores) caused a shift in plant community composition that was proportional to its removal of plant biomass. These results suggest that overall herbivory pressure, rather than herbivore type or complex interactions among different herbivore types, were the main drivers of changes in plant community composition. Individual plant species, however, did respond most strongly to either wild ungulates or cattle. Although these results suggest considerable functional similarity between a suite of native wild herbivores (which included grazers, browsers and mixed feeders) and cattle (mostly grazers) with respect to understory plant community composition, responses of individual plant species demonstrate that at the plant population level, impacts of a single livestock species are not functionally identical to those of a diverse group of native herbivores. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: With decreases in acid deposition, nitrogen: phosphorus (N:P) ratios in lakes are anticipated to decline, decreasing P limitation of phytoplankton and potentially changing current food web dynamics. This effect could be particularly pronounced in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State, a historic hotspot for effects of acid deposition. In this study, we evaluate spatial patterns of nutrient dynamics in Adirondack lakes and use these to infer potential future temporal trends. We calculated Mann-Kendall Tao correlations among total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a , dissolved organic carbon (DOC), acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), and nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentrations in 52 Adirondack Long Term Monitoring (ALTM) lakes using samples collected monthly during 2008-2012. We evaluate the hypothesis that decreased atmospheric N and S deposition will decrease P limitation in freshwater ecosystems historically impacted by acidification. We also compared these patterns among lake-watershed characteristics [i.e., seepage (lacking a surface outlet), chain drainage, headwater drainage, thin glacial till, medium glacial till]. We found that correlations (p〈0.05) were highly dependent upon the different hydrologic flowpaths of seepage versus drainage lakes. Differentiations among watershed till depth were also important in determining correlations due to water interaction with surficial geology. Additionally, we found low NO 3 - :TP (N:P mass) values in seepage lakes (2.0 in winter, 1.9 in summer) compared to chain drainage lakes (169.4 in winter, 49.5 in summer) and headwater drainage lakes (97.0 in winter, 10.9 in summer), implying a high likelihood of future shifts in limitation patterns for seepage lakes. With increasing DOC and decreasing NO 3 - concentrations coinciding with decreases in acid deposition, there is reason to expect changes in nutrient dynamics in Adirondack lakes. Seepage lakes may become N-limited, while drainage lakes may become less P-limited, both resulting in increased productivity. Long-term measurements of TP and chlorophyll a from the Adirondacks are needed to inform how future decreases in atmospheric N and S deposition will influence the trophic status of lake ecosystems throughout the region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recent forest diebacks, combined with threats of future drought, focus attention on the extent to which tree death is caused by catastrophic events as opposed to chronic declines in health that accumulate over years. While recent attention has focused on large-scale diebacks, there is concern that increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity may have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. Here we use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from southeastern U.S. forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multiyear declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multiyear drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 yr. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with drought tolerance. These findings support the ability of trees to avoid death during drought events but indicate shifts that could occur over decades. Tree mortality following drought is predictable in these ecosystems based on growth declines, highlighting an opportunity to address multiyear drought-induced morbidity in models, experiments, and management decisions.

Description: Increased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10%, 20%, or 30% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha ≥ 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will likely benefit grassland bird populations, and bioenergy landscapes could be designed to maximize biodiversity benefits while meeting targets for biomass production.

Description: The concept of ecological solidarity (ES) is a major feature of the 2006 law reforming national park policy in France. In the context of biodiversity conservation, the objectives of this study are to outline the historical development of ES, provide a working definition, and present a method for its implementation that combines environmental pragmatism and adaptive management. First, we highlight how ES provides a focus on the interdependencies among humans and nonhuman components of the socioecological system. In doing so, we identify ES within a framework that distinguishes ecological, socioecological, and sociopolitical interdependencies. In making such interdependencies apparent to humans who are not aware of their existence, the concept of ES promotes collective action as an alternative or complementary approach to state- or market-based approaches. By focusing on the awareness, feelings, and acknowledgement of interdependencies between actors and between humans and nonhumans, we present and discuss a learning-based approach (participatory modeling) that allows stakeholders to work together to construct cultural landscapes for present and future generations. Using two case studies, we show how an ES analysis goes beyond the ecosystem management approach to take into account how human interactions with the environment embody cultural, social, and economic values and endorse an ethically integrated science of care and responsibility. ES recognizes the diversity of these values as a practical foundation for socially engaged and accountable actions. Finally, we discuss how ES enhances academic support for a socioecological systems approach to biodiversity conservation and promotes collaboration with decision-makers and stakeholders involved in the adaptive management of protected areas and their surrounding landscapes.

Description: Environmental conditions are known to affect phenotypic development in many organisms, making the characteristics of an animal reared under one set of conditions not always representative of animals reared under a different set of conditions. Previous results show that such plasticity can also affect the phenotypes and ecological interactions of different genotypes, including animals anthropogenically generated by genetic modification. To understand how plastic development can affect behavior in animals of different genotypes, we examined the feeding and risk-taking behavior in growth-enhanced transgenic coho salmon (with two- to threefold enhanced daily growth rates compared to wild type) under a range of conditions. When compared to wild-type siblings, we found clear effects of the rearing environment on feeding and risk-taking in transgenic animals and noted that in some cases, this environmental effect was stronger than the effects of the genetic modification. Generally, transgenic fish, regardless of rearing conditions, behaved similar to wild-type fish reared under natural-like conditions. Instead, the more unusual phenotype was associated with wild-type fish reared under hatchery conditions, which possessed an extreme risk averse phenotype compared to the same strain reared in naturalized conditions. Thus, the relative performance of genotypes from one environment (e.g., laboratory) may not always accurately reflect ecological interactions as would occur in a different environment (e.g., nature). Further, when assessing risks of genetically modified organisms, it is important to understand how the environment affects phenotypic development, which in turn may variably influence consequences to ecosystem components across different conditions found in the complexity of nature.

Description: Species interactions are susceptible to anthropogenic changes in ecosystems, but this has been poorly investigated in a spatially explicit manner in the case of plant parasitism, such as the omnipresent hemiparasitic mistletoe–host plant interactions. Analyzing such interactions at a large spatial scale may advance our understanding of parasitism patterns over complex landscapes. Combining high-resolution airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR, we studied hemiparasite incidence within and among tree host stands to examine the prevalence and spatial distribution of hemiparasite load in ecosystems. Specifically, we aimed to assess: (1) detection accuracy of mistletoes on their oak hosts; (2) hemiparasitism prevalence within host tree canopies depending on tree height, and (3) spatial variation in hemiparasitism across fragmented woodlands, in a low-diversity mediterranean oak woodland in California, USA. We identified mistletoe infestations with 55–96% accuracy, and detected significant differences in remote-sensed spectra between oak trees with and without mistletoe infestation. We also found that host canopy height had little influence on infestation degree, whereas landscape-level variation showed consistent, nonrandom patterns: isolated host trees had twice the infestation load than did trees located at the core of forest fragments. Overall, we found that canopy exposure (i.e., lower canopy density or proximity to forest edge) is more important than canopy height for mistletoe infestation, and that by changing landscape structure, parasitic prevalence increased with woodland fragmentation. We conclude that reducing fragmentation in oak woodlands will minimize anthropogenic impact on mistletoe infestation at the landscape level. We argue that advanced remote sensing technology can provide baselines to quantitatively analyze and monitor parasite–host trajectories in light of global environmental change, and that this is a promising approach to be further tested in other temperate and tropical forests.

Description: The most significant factors currently affecting the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) population are climate change and consequent changes in sea-ice morphology and dynamics. This paper integrates recent physical sea-ice change in the Bering Sea with biological and ecological conditions of walruses in their winter–spring reproductive habitat. Historically, walrus in winter–spring depended on a critical mass of sea-ice habitat to optimize social networking, reproductive fitness, feeding behavior, migration, and energetic efficiency. During 2003–2013, our cross-disciplinary, multiscale analysis from shipboard observations, satellite imagery, and ice-floe tracking, reinforced by information from indigenous subsistence hunters, documented change of sea-ice structure from a plastic continuum to a “mixing bowl” of ice floes moving more independently. This fragmentation of winter habitat preconditions the walrus population toward dispersal mortality and will also negatively affect the availability of resources for indigenous communities. We urge an expanded research and management agenda that integrates walrus natural history and habitat more completely with changing sea-ice morphology and dynamics at multiple scales, while also meeting the needs of local communities.

Description: Applied nucleation is a restoration technique that seeks to facilitate woody-plant establishment by attracting birds or other animals that may introduce seeds of dispersal-limited species. In 1991, an experimental test of applied nucleation was initiated in an abandoned landfill in New Jersey, USA. Trees and shrubs were planted into 16 10 × 10 m plots, covering 〈3% of the 6-ha site. In 2010–2011, we sampled the plant community to test the impact of the treatments on forest cover and plant biodiversity. Site-wide forest cover increased substantially in the 19 years since planting from none to 59%. The original planted plots had significantly higher stem density, particularly of bird-dispersed species, than unplanted areas. Species composition outside the planted plots was dominated by the wind-dispersed Fraxinus americana and several small-seeded bird-dispersed species, but there were few species indicative of later successional stages. The expected model of successional development via the nucleation model that rates of colonization would be highest near plantings and that forest cover would spread outward from established clusters was not supported after this time span. Given the site's isolation from potential sources of woody propagules, the experimental treatments may not have been enough to overcome many species’ dispersal limitation. Regardless of the mechanism, however, the treatments transformed the once essentially treeless site into a densely wooded habitat, and did so at a rate faster than other descriptions of reforestation following disturbances or land-use changes in the region. Despite the relatively low species richness of the community, this experiment demonstrated that reforestation of even severely degraded habitat can be achieved with minimal management after site preparation and cluster plantings.

Description: In ecosystems with alternative stable states, restoration success can be thought of as overcoming the resilience of an undesirable state to promote an alternative state that yields greater ecosystem services. Since greater resilience of undesirable states translates into reduced restoration potential, quantifying differences in resilience can enhance restoration planning. In the context of shrub-encroached rangeland restoration, shrubland resilience is the capacity of a woody vegetated state to absorb management interventions designed to produce a more desirable grass-dominated state, and remain within its current regime. Therefore, differences in the resilience of a state can be quantified in a relative sense by measuring whether a state switches to an alternate state following perturbation or remains in its current stability domain. Here we designed an experimental manipulation to assess the contribution of soils to differences in the relative resilience of a shrub-invaded state. In this large-scale experiment, we repeated perturbations across a gradient of soil textures to inform restoration practitioners of differences in the relative resilience of shrubland occurring on different soil types to common rangeland restoration practices. On each soil type, we compared the relative ability of the shrubland state to withstand chemical and mechanical brush control treatments, commonly employed in this study region, to untreated controls. While the shrubland community composition did not differ prior to the study, its capacity to absorb and recover from brush removal treatments depended on soil type. Shrubland resilience to chemical and mechanical brush removal was highest on coarse soils. On these soils, brush removal temporarily restored grassland dominance, but woody plants quickly regained pretreatment levels of dominance. However, shrublands on fine soils did not recover following treatments, continuing to be grass-dominated for the duration of the study. This study highlights a simple approach for prioritizing restoration actions by mapping the locations of different soil attributes that support shrub-dominated states with differing levels of resilience to brush control. This experimental approach provides a basis for operationalizing resilience in restoration and prioritizing management actions across a range of environmental conditions, which is critical given the economic constraints associated with broad-scale mechanical and chemical interventions for rangeland restoration.

Description: Forests are more frequently being managed to store and sequester carbon for the purposes of climate change mitigation. Generally, this practice involves long-term conservation of intact mature forests and/or reductions in the frequency and intensity of timber harvests. However, incorporating the influence of forest surface albedo often suggests that long rotation lengths may not always be optimal in mitigating climate change in forests characterized by frequent snowfall. To address this, we investigated trade-offs between three ecosystem services: carbon storage, albedo-related radiative forcing, and timber provisioning. We calculated optimal rotation length at 498 diverse Forest Inventory and Analysis forest sites in the state of New Hampshire, USA. We found that the mean optimal rotation lengths across all sites was 94 yr (standard deviation of sample means = 44 yr), with a large cluster of short optimal rotation lengths that were calculated at high elevations in the White Mountain National Forest. Using a regression tree approach, we found that timber growth, annual storage of carbon, and the difference between annual albedo in mature forest vs. a post-harvest landscape were the most important variables that influenced optimal rotation. Additionally, we found that the choice of a baseline albedo value for each site significantly altered the optimal rotation lengths across all sites, lowering the mean rotation to 59 yr with a high albedo baseline, and increasing the mean rotation to 112 yr given a low albedo baseline. Given these results, we suggest that utilizing temperate forests in New Hampshire for climate mitigation purposes through carbon storage and the cessation of harvest is appropriate at a site-dependent level that varies significantly across the state.

Description: Animal species diversity is often associated with time since disturbance, but the effects of disturbances such as fire on functional diversity are unknown. Functional diversity measures the range, abundance, and distribution of trait values in a community, and links changes in species composition with the consequences for ecosystem function. Improved understanding of the relationship between time since fire (TSF) and functional diversity is critical given that the frequency of both prescribed fire and wildfire is expected to increase. To address this knowledge gap, we examined responses of avian functional diversity to TSF and two direct measures of environmental heterogeneity, plant diversity, and structural heterogeneity. We surveyed birds across a 70-year chronosequence spanning four vegetation types in southeast Australia. Six bird functional traits were used to derive four functional diversity indices (richness, evenness, divergence, and dispersion) and the effects of TSF, plant diversity and structural heterogeneity on species richness and the functional diversity indices were examined using mixed models. We used a regression tree method to identify traits associated with species more common in young vegetation. Functional richness and dispersion were negatively associated with TSF in all vegetation types, suggesting that recent prescribed fire generates heterogeneous vegetation and provides greater opportunities for resource partitioning. Species richness was not significantly associated with TSF, and is probably an unreliable surrogate for functional diversity in fire-prone systems. A positive relationship between functional evenness and structural heterogeneity was common to all vegetation types, suggesting that fine-scale (tens of meters) structural variation can enhance ecosystem function. Species more common in young vegetation were primarily linked by their specialist diets, indicating that ecosystem services such as seed dispersal and insect control are enhanced in more recently burnt vegetation. We suggest that patchy prescribed fire sustains functional diversity, and that controlled use of patchy fire to break up large expanses of mature vegetation will enhance ecosystem function.

Description: The use of taxon substitutes for extinct or endangered species is a controversial conservation measure. We use the example of the endangered California tiger salamander ( Ambystoma californiense ; CTS), which is being replaced by hybrids with the invasive barred tiger salamander ( Ambystoma mavortium ), to illustrate a strategy for evaluating taxon substitutes based on their position in a multivariate community space. Approximately one-quarter of CTS's range is currently occupied by “full hybrids” with 70% nonnative genes, while another one-quarter is occupied by “superinvasives” where a specific set of 3/68 genes comprising 4% of the surveyed genome is nonnative. Based on previous surveys of natural CTS breeding ponds, we stocked experimental mesocosms with field-verified, realistic densities of tiger salamander larvae and their prey, and used these mesocosms to evaluate ecological equivalency between pure CTS, full hybrids, and superinvasives in experimental pond communities. We also included a fourth treatment with no salamanders present to evaluate the community effects of eliminating Ambystoma larvae altogether. We found that pure CTS and superinvasive larvae were ecologically equivalent, because their positions in the multivariate community space were statistically indistinguishable and they did not differ significantly along any univariate community axes. Full hybrids were ecologically similar, but not equivalent, to the other two genotypes, and the no- Ambystoma treatment was by far the most divergent. We conclude that, at least for the larval stage, superinvasives are adequate taxon substitutes for pure CTS and should probably be afforded protection under the Endangered Species Act. The proper conservation status for full hybrids remains debatable.

Description: The contribution of working forests to tropical conservation and development depends upon the maintenance of ecological integrity under ongoing land use. Assessment of ecological integrity requires an understanding of the structure, composition, and function and major drivers that govern their variability. Working forests in tropical river floodplains provide many goods and services, yet the data on the ecological processes that sustain these services is scant. In flooded forests of riverside Amazonian communities, we established 46 0.1-ha plots varying in flood duration, use by cattle and water buffalo, and time since agricultural abandonment (30–90 yr). We monitored three aspects of ecological integrity (stand structure, species composition, and dynamics of trees and seedlings) to evaluate the impacts of different trajectories of livestock activity (alleviation, stasis, and intensification) over nine years. Negative effects of livestock intensification were solely evident in the forest understory, and plots alleviated from past heavy disturbance increased in seedling density but had higher abundance of thorny species than plots maintaining low activity. Stand structure, dynamics, and tree species composition were strongly influenced by the natural pulse of seasonal floods, such that the defining characteristics of integrity were dependent upon flood duration (3–200 d). Forests with prolonged floods ≥140 d had not only lower species richness but also lower rates of recruitment and species turnover relative to forests with short floods 〈70 d. Overall, the combined effects of livestock intensification and prolonged flooding hindered forest regeneration, but overall forest integrity was largely related to the hydrological regime and age. Given this disjunction between factors mediating canopy and understory integrity, we present a subset of metrics for regeneration and recruitment to distinguish forest condition by livestock trajectory. Although our study design includes confounded factors that preclude a definitive assessment of the major drivers of ecological change, we provide much-needed data on the regrowth of a critical but poorly studied ecosystem. In addition to its emphasis on the dynamics of tropical wetland forests undergoing anthropogenic and environmental change, our case study is an important example for how to assess of ecological integrity in working forests of tropical ecosystems.

Description: Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife are of increasing concern to managers and conservation policy makers, but are often difficult to study and predict due to the complexity of host–disease systems and a paucity of empirical data. We demonstrate the use of an Approximate Bayesian Computation statistical framework to reconstruct the disease dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in Kruger National Park's lion population, despite limited empirical data on the disease's effects in lions. The modeling results suggest that, while a large proportion of the lion population will become infected with bovine tuberculosis, lions are a spillover host and long disease latency is common. In the absence of future aggravating factors, bovine tuberculosis is projected to cause a lion population decline of ~3% over the next 50 years, with the population stabilizing at this new equilibrium. The Approximate Bayesian Computation framework is a new tool for wildlife managers. It allows emerging infectious diseases to be modeled in complex systems by incorporating disparate knowledge about host demographics, behavior, and heterogeneous disease transmission, while allowing inference of unknown system parameters.

Description: Top-down processes such as predation and herbivory have been shown to control the dynamics of communities across a range of ecosystems by generating trophic cascades. However, theory is only beginning to describe how these local trophic processes interact with spatial subsidies in the form of material (nutrient, detritus) transport and organismal dispersal to (1) shape the structure of interconnected (meta-) ecosystems and (2) determine their optimal management via reserve networks. Here, we develop a meta-ecosystem model to understand how the reciprocal feedbacks between spatial subsidies and reserve networks modulate the importance of top-down control in a simple herbivorous fish–macroalgae–coral system. We show that in large and isolated reserve networks where connectivity between protected and unprotected areas is limited, spatial subsidies remain largely confined to reserves. This retention of spatial subsidies promotes the top-down control of corals and macroalgae by herbivores inside reserves but reduces it outside reserves. Conversely, in small and aggregated reserves where connectivity between protected and unprotected areas is high, the spillover of spatial subsidies causes a reduction in top-down control of corals and macroalgae by herbivores inside reserves and an increase in the strength of top-down control outside reserves. In addition, we demonstrate that there is a trade-off between local and regional conservation objectives when designing reserve networks: small and aggregated reserves based on the extent of dispersal maximize the abundance of corals and herbivores regionally, whereas large and isolated reserves always maximize the abundance of corals within reserves, regardless of the extent of dispersal. The existence of such “conservation traps,” which arise from the fulfillment of population-level objectives within local reserves at the cost of community-level objectives at regional scales, suggests the importance of adopting a more holistic strategy to manage complex and interconnected ecosystems.

Description: Artificial aquatic habitats are ubiquitous in anthropogenic landscapes and highly susceptible to colonization by invasive plant species. Recent research into the ecology of infectious diseases indicates that the establishment of invasive plant species can trigger ecological cascades which alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne pathogens that imperil human health. Here, we examined whether the presence or management of two invasive, emergent plants, cattails ( Typha spp.) and phragmites ( Phragmites australis ), in stormwater dry detention basins (DDBs) alter the local distribution of vectors, avian hosts, or West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk in an urban residential setting. Mosquitoes and birds were surveyed at 14 DDBs and paired adjacent residential sites. During the study period, emergent vegetation was mowed by site managers in three DDBs. In the absence of vegetation management, the overall abundance and species composition of both adult vectors and avian hosts differed between residential and DDB habitats; however, WNV entomological risk indices were equivalent. Communal bird roosts composed primarily of three species, European Starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ), Red-winged Blackbirds ( Agelaius phoeniceus ), and Common Grackles ( Quiscalus quiscula ), representing a broad range of WNV reservoir competence, were observed at half (three out of six) of the DDBs containing unmanaged stands of phragmites; however, their presence was associated with a lower seasonal increase in vector infection rate. Conversely, mowing of emergent vegetation resulted in a significant and sustained increase in the abundance of WNV-infected vectors in DDBs and the increase in risk extended to adjacent residential sites. These findings indicate that management of invasive plants in DDBs during the growing season can increase, while presence of communal bird roosts can decrease, WNV transmission risk.

Description: Vegetated (green) roofs have become common in many cities and are projected to continue to increase in coverage, but little is known about the ecological properties of these engineered ecosystems. In this study we tested the biodiversity-ecosystem function hypothesis using commercially available green roof trays as replicated plots with varying levels of plant species richness (0, 1, 3, or 6 common green roof species per plot, using plants with different functional characteristics). We estimated accumulated plant biomass near the peak of the first full growing season (July 2013), and measured runoff volume after nearly every rain event from Sept. 2012 to Sept. 2013 (33 events), and runoff fluxes of inorganic nutrients ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate from a subset of 10 events. We found that: (1) total plant biomass increased with increasing species richness; (2) green roof plots were effective at reducing storm runoff, with vegetation increasing water retention more than soil-like substrate alone, but there was no significant effect of plant species identity or richness on runoff volume; (3) green roof substrate was a significant source of phosphate, regardless of presence/absence of plants; (4) dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN = nitrate + ammonium) runoff fluxes were different among plant species and decreased significantly with increasing plant species richness. The variation in N retention was positively related to variation in plant biomass. Notably, the increased biomass and N retention with species richness in this engineered ecosystem are similar to patterns observed in published studies from grasslands and other well-studied ecosystems. We suggest that more diverse plantings on vegetated roofs may enhance the retention capacity for reactive nitrogen. This is of importance for the sustained health of vegetated roof ecosystems, which over time often experience nitrogen limitation, and is also relevant for water quality in receiving waters downstream of green roofs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Identifying impacts of non-native species on native populations is central to conservation and ecology. While effects of non-native predators on native prey populations have recently received much attention, impacts of introduced prey on native predator populations are less understood. Non-native prey can influence predator behavior and demography through direct and indirect pathways, yet quantitative assessments of the relative impacts of multiple, potentially counteracting, effects on native predator population growth remain scarce. Using ≈20 years of range-wide monitoring data, we tested for effects of a recently-introduced, rapidly-spreading non-native prey species ( Pomacea maculata ) on the behavior and demography of the endangered snail kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis ). Previous studies found that food-handling difficulties caused by the large size of P. maculata (relative to the native P. paludosa ) can lead to energetic deficiencies in juvenile kites, suggesting the potential for evolutionary traps to occur. However, high densities of P. maculata populations could facilitate kites by providing supplemental food resources. Contrary to prior hypotheses, we found that juvenile apparent survival increased ≈50% in wetlands invaded by non-native snails. Breeding rates and number of young fledged/successful nest were also positively associated with non-native snail presence, suggesting direct trophic benefits to kites. We found no direct effects of the invasive snail on adult survival or daily nest survival rates. Kite movements and breeding distribution closely tracked the spread of non-native snail populations. Since 2005, kites have been heavily concentrated in northern regions where non-native snails have established. This geographic shift has had hidden costs, as use of northern regions is associated with lower adult survival. Despite negative impacts to this key vital rate, matrix population modeling indicated that the multifarious effects of the non-native snail invasion on kites culminated in increased population growth rates, likely lowering short-term extinction risks. Results suggest that considering only particular components of behavior or demography may be inadequate to infer the population-dynamic importance of non-native prey on native predators, including their role in creating potential evolutionary traps. Our findings provide information pertinent to Everglades restoration, highlighting potential management trade-offs for non-native species that may aid imperiled species recovery yet disrupt other native communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change, historical fire suppression and a rise in human movements in urban-forest boundaries have resulted in an increased use of long-term fire retardant (LTFR). While LTFR is an effective fire-fighting tool, it contains high concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus, and little is known how this nutrient pulse affects terrestrial ecosystems. We used field surveys and greenhouse experiments to quantify effects of LTFR on plant productivity, community composition, and plant interactions with the ubiquitous root symbiont arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). In the field, LTFR applications were associated with persistent shifts in plant communities toward exotic annuals with little or no dependency of AMF. Plants exposed to LTFR were less colonized by AMF, both in field surveys and in the greenhouse, and this was most likely due to the substantial and persistent increase in soil available phosphorus. All plants grew bigger with LTFR in the greenhouse, but the invasive annual cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) benefitted most. While LTFR can control fires, it may cause long-term changes in soil nutrient availabilities, disrupt plant interactions with beneficial soil microbes and exasperate invasion by some exotic plants. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Sampling biases permeate ecological research and result in knowledge gaps that have vital consequences for conservation planning. The consequences of knowledge gaps on species identity and distribution (the Wallacean and Linnean shortfalls, respectively) have become apparent recently, but we poorly know to what extent research biases and knowledge gaps on traits that influence species’ niches (the Hutchinsonian shortfall) affect conservation policy. To examine whether knowledge on species traits based on seed ecology is geographically, phylogenetically and ecologically biased, we retrieved research data on seed germination, seed dormancy, seed dispersal, seed banks, seed predation, and seed removal from a database of 847 papers, 1648 species and 5322 cases. Brazil was selected as a model system for megadiverse, undersampled countries. Kernel density maps showed that research was geographically biased towards highly populated sites, with vast areas remaining historically unexplored. We also show that research was clustered into protected areas. We detected a significant positive phylogenetic bias at genus-level indicating research concentration in few genera and lower relative bias rates for many herbaceous genera. Unexpectedly, information on seed banking was available for only 74 (3.4%) of threatened species, which suggests that information deficits are highest for species with critical needs for ex situ conservation strategies. Tree, fleshy-fruited and biotic dispersal species were disproportionately overstudied. Our data indicate that information deficits on seed ecology preclude our ability to effectively restore ecosystems and to safeguard endangered species. We call for a systematic improvement of environmental agenda in which policy makers and scientists target sites, clades and functional groups historically neglected. Lessons from developed countries and collaborative efforts will be important for megadiverse, underdeveloped countries to achieve the targets of international agreements that depend on seed ecology knowledge aiming to secure biological diversity and ecosystem services. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Most ecosystems are impacted by multiple local and long-distance stressors, many of which interact in complex ways. We present a framework for prioritizing ecological restoration efforts among sites in multi-stressor landscapes. Using a simple model, we show that both the economic and sociopolitical costs of restoration will typically be lower at sites with a relatively small number of severe problems than at sites with numerous lesser problems. Based on these results, we propose using cumulative stress and evenness of stressor impact as complementary indices that together reflect key challenges of restoring a site to improved condition. To illustrate this approach, we analyze stressor evenness across the world's rivers and the Laurentian Great Lakes. This exploration reveals that evenness and cumulative stress are decoupled, enabling selection of sites where remediating a modest number of high-intensity stressors could substantially reduce cumulative stress. Just as species richness and species evenness are fundamental axes of biological diversity, we argue that cumulative stress and stressor evenness constitute fundamental axes for identifying restoration opportunities in multi-stressor landscapes. Our results highlight opportunities to boost restoration efficiency through strategic use of multi-stressor datasets to identify sites which maximize ecological response per stressor remediated. This prioritization framework can also be expanded to account for the feasibility of remediation and the expected societal benefits of restoration projects. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Collisions between birds and aircraft cause billions of dollars of damages annually to civil, commercial, and military aviation. Yet technology to reduce bird strike is not generally effective, especially over longer time periods. Previous information from our lab indicated that filling an area with acoustic noise, which masks important communication channels for birds, can displace European Starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) from food sources. Here we deployed a spatially controlled noise (termed a “sonic net”), designed to overlap with the frequency range of bird vocalizations, at an airfield. By conducting point counts, we monitored the presence of birds for four weeks before deployment of our sonic net, and for four weeks during deployment. We found an 82% reduction in bird presence in the sonic net area compared with change in the reference areas. This effect was as strong in the fourth week of exposure as in the first week. We also calculated the potential costs avoided resulting from this exclusion. We propose that spatially controlled acoustic manipulations that mask auditory communication for birds may be an effective long term and fairly benign way of excluding problem birds from areas of socioeconomic importance, such as airfields, agricultural sites, and commercial properties.

Description: Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and any potential carbon benefits from treatment may depend on the occurrence of wildfire. We sought to determine how forest treatments alter the effects of stochastic wildfire events on the forest carbon balance. We modeled three treatments (control, thin-only, and thin and burn) with and without the occurrence of wildfire. We evaluated how two different probabilities of wildfire occurrence, 1% and 2% per year, might alter the carbon balance of treatments. In the absence of wildfire, we found that thinning and burning treatments initially reduced total ecosystem carbon (TEC) and increased net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB). In the presence of wildfire, the thin and burn treatment TEC surpassed that of the control in year 40 at 2%/yr wildfire probability, and in year 51 at 1%/yr wildfire probability. NECB in the presence of wildfire showed a similar response to the no-wildfire scenarios: both thin-only and thin and burn treatments increased the C sink. Treatments increased TEC by reducing both mean wildfire severity and its variability. While the carbon balance of treatments may differ in more productive forest types, the carbon balance benefits from restoring forest structure and fire in southwestern ponderosa pine forests are clear.

Description: Species distribution models (SDMs) are important statistical tools for obtaining ecological insight into species–habitat relationships and providing advice for natural resource management. Many SDMs have been developed over the past decades, with a focus on space- and more recently, time-dependence. However, most of these studies have been on terrestrial species and applications to marine species have been limited. In this study, we used three large spatio-temporal data sources (habitat maps, survey-based fish density estimates, and fishery catch data) and a novel space-time model to study how the distribution of fishing may affect the seasonal dynamics of a commercially important fish species (Pacific Dover sole, Microstomus pacificus ) off the west coast of the USA. Dover sole showed a large scale change in seasonal and annual distribution of biomass, and its distribution shifted from mid-depth zones to inshore or deeper waters during late summer/early fall. In many cases, the scale of fishery removal was small compared to these broader changes in biomass, suggesting that seasonal dynamics were primarily driven by movement and not by fishing. The increasing availability of appropriate data and space-time modeling software should facilitate extending this work to many other species, particularly those in marine ecosystems, and help tease apart the role of growth, natural mortality, recruitment, movement, and fishing on spatial patterns of species distribution in marine systems.