ALBERT

Description: Exploitation is one of the major drivers of change in marine ecosystems. Following discovery in 1775, South Georgia saw sequential overexploitation of living resources, including seals, whales, and fish. Although exploitation is now tightly regulated, the ecosystem is still recovering. Marbled rockcod, Notothenia rossii (Richardson 1844), was the first fish species to be commercially exploited and high catches between 1967 and 1972 resulted in dramatic stock decline. Here, we use 30 years of trawl survey data to provide the first evidence of a sustained increase in the N. rossii population starting two decades after the prohibition of targeted fishing in 1985. The way species respond to change is mediated in part by trophic relationships with other organisms. We present the first multi-year, spatially-resolved comparison of adult N. rossii diet at South Georgia, highlighting a variable diet with less reliance on Antarctic krill than previously thought. Life history factors and possible heavy predation on early life stages might have delayed their recovery while diet plasticity potentially supported recent population growth. Due to the dynamic ecosystem at South Georgia and questions over catch reports from the period of heaviest exploitation, it is unlikely the current ecosystem could support a recovery to estimated pre-exploitation levels.

Description: Since 1996, the European Union has required that fishery products of 35 fish species or groups of species, including crustaceans and cephalopods, be graded before being landed on the basis of commercial size-categories. A multi-stage sampling scheme to estimate catch-at-length and catch-at-age compositions of total annual landings has been conducted in Portuguese waters since 2009. All species and their size-categories are sampled concurrently from random trips within representatively selected site-days annually. In an effort to improve cost-efficiency of the biological catch sampling of commercial landings in Portugal, a size- category sampling scheme was tested during 2017, taking advantage of the stratification of horse mackerel landings, induced by the mandatory grading of landings by size-category. The total number of site-days (primary sampling units), fish boxes sampled, and specimens of horse mackerel sampled for length and age across strata during the pilot study were 30%, 57%, and 12% of the sampling carried out under the standard concurrent scheme, respectively. The assignment of horse mackerel length to the six commercial size-categories was highly consistent across site-days. Our study shows that the concurrent sampling, where trips are subsampled within site-days, could miss some size-categories by chance, resulting in poor estimates of catch-at-length especially for small fish present at the market during a site-day. The size-category sampling scheme ensured subsamples of fish from all size-categories within a site-day, and achieved data on catch-at-age that are fit-for purpose at 24% of the total cost for the standard concurrent sampling. The effect of sampling designs and sample sizes on horse mackerel stock assessment outputs showed that the onshore biological sampling to estimate catch-at-age compositions for stock assessment is optimized with the size-category sampling scheme. Pilot field experiments should be carried out for selected species that evidence consistent size grading among commercial categories.

Description: The fishery for Northern Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off Newfoundland and Labrador, Eastern Canada, presents the most spectacular case of an exploited stock crashed in a few decades by an industrial bottom trawl fishery under a seemingly sophisticated management regime after half a millennium of sustainable fishing. The fishery, which had generated annual catches of 100000 to 200000 tonnes from the beginning of the 16th century to the 1950s,  peaked in 1968 at 810000 tonnes, followed by a devastating collapse and closure 24 years later. Since then, stock recovery may have been hindered by premature openings, with vessels targeting the remains of the cod population. Previous research paid little attention towards using multicentury time series to inform sustainable catches and recovery plans. Here, we show that a simple stock assessment model can be used to model the cod population trajectory for the entire period from 1508 to 2019 for which catch estimates are available. The model suggests that if fishing effort and mortality had been stabilized in the 1980s,  precautionary annual yields of about 200000 tonnes could have been sustained. Our analysis demonstrates the value of incorporating prior knowledge to counteract shifting baseline effects on reference points and contemporary perceptions of historical stock status.

Description: The state-space assessment model (SAM) is extended by allowing a functional relationship between observation variance and the corresponding prediction. An estimated relationship between observation variance and predicted value for each individual observation allows the model to assign smaller (or larger) variance to predicted larger log-observations. This relation is different from the usual assumption of constant variance of log-observations within age groups. The prediction–variance link is implemented and compared to the usual constant variance assumption for the official assessments of North East Arctic cod and haddock. For both of these stocks, the prediction–variance link is found to give a significant improvement.

Description: Marine predatory fish face unpredictable prey environments, ranging from abundance to scarcity of food. Dimensioning their assimilative system to accommodate gorging and fasting is therefore a central life history choice. Assimilative capacity experiments typically operate with sustained feeding to satiation, and therefore ignore the fluctuations in natural feeding opportunities. A more relevant description of the adaptive response is the episodic capacity associated with binge feeding (hyperphagia). We develop the theoretical foundation to define episodic and sustained capacity and its allometry. Extensive empirical evidence on marine piscivorous fish at higher latitudes confirms that the episodic capacity scales almost linearly with predator body mass (exponent approximately 0.95), producing an increasing factorial hyperphagic scope (exponent approximately 0.20). Our synthesis overturns the reigning steady state perspective on assimilative capacity. The fish can utilize an episodic capacity, typically twice the size of the sustained capacity, resulting in local dynamics of functional responses with profound implications for scaling-up to ecosystem level.

Description: Bottom trawlers are engaged in multi-species fisheries and fish for profit. In quota-regulated fisheries, intra- and inter-temporal substitutions of fishing effort is regarded as a key mechanisms that influences the profitability of the fishing portfolio. The feeding and spawning migration patterns of the available fish species in the fishing portfolio alter the bio-economic conditions of the different fishing areas. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity among different fishing areas in terms of the fuel costs and travel distance, accessibility to other fishing fleets, and sea ice extent affects the relative attractiveness of the fishing areas and further complicates the decisions underlying the effort allocation, such as when and where to fish what and how much to fish to maximize the profit. In this regard, the aim of this article is to identify the key drivers of intra- and inter-temporal effort allocation in a multi-species trawl fishery consisting of 61 Norwegian trawl vessels targeting cod, saithe, and haddock, the aim being to maximize the fishing profit within the quota constraints. We adopted a two-step Heckman estimator that incorporates the relative attractiveness of three heavily trawled areas, the southern and northern parts of the west coast of Norway and the high sea areas of the Arctic. The relative attractiveness is specified by the fish availability, measured using the catch per unit of effort, prices of the target species, fuel cost, intensity of the coastal fleet's participation in winter fishery, and seasonal sea ice extent in the Barents Sea during the period 2011–2016. Our results show that region-specific attributes and spatial margins have a profound impact on the intra-temporal and inter-temporal allocation of fishing effort to maximize the seasonal profit. Furthermore, we found evidence of economically rational behaviour of the Norwegian trawlers in constantly reallocating their fishing effort in response to the changes in the relative attractiveness of the selected fishing areas over the course of a fishing year.

Description: We tested if a newly developed luminous netting, VISIONET, could change the vertical behaviour of six commercially important species in a Nephrops (Nephrops norvegicus) trawl fishery. We inserted a V-shaped piece of VISIONET ascending on each side of the tapered section just ahead of a divided codend. The length-based effect on the vertical separation of fishes and Nephrops was quantified, and we evaluated if the presence of VISIONET had the potential to increase the fish capture in the upper compartment. Contrary to our expectation, gadoids entered the lower compartment more frequently than in the control trawl. This was similar to that previously found when applying green LED lights in the tapered section, however opposite for haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus). The flatfishes did not respond. Large Nephrops significantly increased their preference for the lower compartment. Our results show that low intensity light is sufficient to alter the vertical distribution of both fishes and Nephrops. Responses of fishes to different variables, including light intensities, need to be studied in more detail to understand the underlying mechanisms and to ultimately reduce unwanted catch more efficiently. Luminous netting can be integrated in any given trawl design and does not require batteries or electronics.

Description: Fishers reporting all of their catch is key to estimating population viabilities of vulnerable, highly migratory fish stocks. However, fishery managers find it difficult to ensure that this reporting behavior takes place consistently. Wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are a highly migratory and internationally contested species with a threatened conservation status. Greenland manages a fishery for Atlantic salmon, and its coastline serves as a key feeding ground in the life history of Atlantic salmon. However, salmon catch is underreported by fishers, even though they are required to report. Deterring noncompliant behavior with penalties and sending short message service (SMS) messages have been shown to increase compliance, but no known studies test their effect on compliance with catch reporting requirements. We evaluated two interventions for their effect on salmon catch reporting behavior among Greenland's salmon fishers. Salmon fishers were 41% more likely to report (p

Description: The offshore Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) fishery, west Greenland, employs demersal trawl gear at depths of 800–1400 m. In contrast to many deep-sea fisheries, the target stock appears stable and the fishery is of significant economic importance. Recent Marine Stewardship Council certification of this fishery highlighted the paucity of knowledge of benthic habitats and trawling impacts, which this study aimed to address using a towed benthic video sled. The spatially discrete northern and southern areas of the fishery were found to be distinct in terms of the communities present, which non-metric multidimensional scaling suggests is primarily driven by temperature. Extensive physical evidence of trawling was observed. Trawling effort was significantly linked with community composition, with a negative association between trawling effort and abundance of some taxa, including some vulnerable marine ecosystem (VME) indicator species. Three potential VMEs are identified: (i) Flabellum alabastrum cup coral meadows; (ii) a Halipteris finmarchica sea pen field; and (iii) areas exhibiting mixed assemblages of VME indicators. Of immediate conservation concern is a H. finmarchica field, which seems to be at least regionally rare, is situated within the fringes of existing trawling effort and is currently afforded no protection by management measures.

Description: The productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) has declined markedly since the 1980s,  in part because of changing ocean conditions, but mechanisms driving this decline remain unclear. Previous research has suggested differential recruitment dynamics between the continental stock groups, with post-smolt growth influencing the survival of populations in Europe, but not North America. We used a large, representative archive of North American, multi sea-winter salmon scales to reconstruct long-term changes in growth between 1968 and 2018. We then modeled relationships between annual growth indices, estimates of maturation rates, and post-smolt survival, while allowing for the possibility of non-stationary dynamics. We found that marine growth of MSW salmon has changed over the past 50 years, generally increasing despite declining survival. However, we found strong evidence of a non-stationary influence of post-smolt growth on survival. Prior to a period of rapid change in the ocean environment during the late 1980s,  post-smolt growth was positively related with survival, similar to the pattern observed in European populations. These findings suggest that the mechanisms determining marine survival of North American and European salmon populations may have diverged around 1990. More generally, our results highlight the importance of considering non-stationary dynamics when evaluating linkages between the environment, growth, and survival of Atlantic salmon.

Description: The number of seals in the Baltic Sea has increased dramatically in recent years. While growing seal populations are associated with a thriving marine environment, seals interact with coastal fisheries causing significant damages to catches and gears. One fishery that is severely affected is the coastal cod fishery where the negative impact of seals is believed by many to threaten the existence of the fishery. This article empirically investigates to what extent seal damages can explain the declining number of fishing vessels active in the Baltic Sea coastal cod fishery. The analysis makes use of detailed logbook data and statistical survival models to estimate the effect of seal interactions with fishing gears on the exit probability of vessels in the Swedish cod fishery. The results show that seal interactions is an important factor explaining exits, suggesting that total losses caused by seals go beyond observed costs of broken gears and damaged catches.

Description: The mesopelagic zone (200–1000 m depth) contains high fish species diversity but biomass and abundances are uncertain yet essential to understand ecosystem functioning. Hull-mounted acoustic systems (usually 38 kHz) often make assumptions on average target strength (TS) of mesopelagic fish assemblages when estimating biomass/abundance. Here, an unsupervised clustering algorithm was applied on broadband acoustic data (54–78 kHz), collected by a towed instrumented platform in the central Northeast Atlantic, to identify different mesopelagic target types based on similarity of individual TS spectra. Numerical density estimates from echo-counting showed spatial differences in vertical distribution patterns of the different target types and TS spectra data suggested that 〉30% of the gas-bearing targets had high resonance frequencies (〉60 kHz) with low scattering strength at 38 kHz. This conceptual study highlights the importance of separating targets into different target groups to obtain correct backscatter information and to account for all relevant scatterers when estimating average TS at 38 kHz, in order to achieve more accurate biomass/abundance estimates. It furthermore demonstrates the use of a towed broadband acoustic platform for fine-scale numerical density estimates as a complementary method to hull-mounted acoustic data to increase knowledge on mesopelagic ecosystem structure.

Description: The distribution and abundance of marine fishes have been changing over the last decades due to climate change and overfishing. We evaluated the status of an important exploited marine ecosystem for one of the largest fisheries in Greenland, Greenland halibut Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, in the offshore slopes of West Greenland. We examined how five ecological indicators changed from 1997 to 2019 under the effect of climate and commercial fishery. The oscillatory tendency of the bottom temperature modified the structure and composition of the demersal fish community. In the shallower zone, the warming bottom temperature favoured high trophic level and warmer water species, and subsequently, an increase in halibut biomass, which reduced the biodiversity. In the middle depth zone, the high biomass of halibut masked increases of less common higher trophic level species. In the deep zone, the drastic reduction of halibut biomass coincided with an increase of high trophic level and colder-water species. Despite the increasing exploitation, especially the mid depth zone, the current fishery did not induce changes to community structure. With the present study, we demonstrate the value of using ecological indicators and estimating spatio-temporal trends to provide a further understanding of the ecosystem status.

Description: During the last few decades, many wild Atlantic salmon populations have declined dramatically. One possible contributing factor for the decline is reduced prey availability at sea. Here, we examine post-smolt diet and investigate if post-smolts show signs of selective feeding based on 2546 post-smolts sampled from west of Ireland to the northern Norwegian Sea over a 25-year period. We also test for changes over time in stomach fullness, diet, condition factor and body length. There was a clear reduction in condition factor for post-smolts sampled in the Norwegian Sea in the period 2003–2012. The post-smolt stomach fullness was also reduced in the same period. The reduction in condition factor is partly explained by reduced stomach fullness, including a reduction of highly energetic fish larvae and Amphipoda in the diet. Feeding on other prey, such as meso-zooplankton and insects, cannot substitute the high-quality fish larvae and Amphipoda in the post-smolt diet. This is the first study to document how salmon post-smolts feeding in the Norwegian Sea are affected by reduced feeding conditions. Possible causes for the observed changes in post-smolt feeding are ocean warming, decreased primary productivity, and reduced recruitment of important fish larvae.

Description: Accurate estimates of growth and mortality are needed to understand drivers of production and cohort success. Existing methods for estimating mortality rates, such as catch-curves, require large sample sizes, as they work by grouping individuals into age-bins to determine a frequency distribution. Yet, sampling enough larvae is often not possible at fine scales within the constraints of research projects, due to low density of larvae in pelagic environments. Here, we develop a novel method to simultaneously estimate growth and mortality rates of fish larvae as a continuous function of size using theory of size-structured populations, eliminating the need to group data into age-bins. We compare the effectiveness of our model to existing methods by generating data from a known distribution. This comparison demonstrates that while all models recover correct parameter values under ideal circumstances, our new method performs better than existing methods when sample sizes are low. Additionally, our method can accommodate non-linear growth and mortality functions, while also allowing growth and mortality to vary as functions of environmental co-variates. This increased accuracy and flexibility of our method should improve our ability to relate variability in larval production to environmental fluctuations at finer spatial scales.

Description: A pressing challenge for climate-vulnerable fisheries is how to manage now for present and future climate change. In contrast to climate forecasting approaches, we track integrated signals of change for example populations in a climatically forced region and use stochastic dynamic programming to compare the performance of a range of management-ready policies over all possible future states. Our main results highlight: (i) that biomass-linked harvest control rules (HCRs) can partially compensate for changing production, even if the HCR is time invariant; and (ii) that the form of utility (e.g. risk neutral or risk averse) can result in remarkably different optimal decision paths. Performance over future horizons degrades marginally from dynamic HCRs to static HCRs (except at low productivity where differences are more pronounced) but markedly when the biomass level is ignored altogether, as is the case in many managed fish populations globally. Understanding the processes whereby climate affects productivity is important for interpreting past data, but forecasts are not needed for tactical decision making now. Instead, we argue that the priorities for managing fish stocks influenced by climate change are to: measure the current productivity, assess the current abundance of the stock, and respond with a dynamic HCR.

Description: In 2020, the developing COVID-19 pandemic disrupted fisheries surveys to an unprecedented extent. Many surveys were cancelled, including those for walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), the largest fishery in the United States. To partially mitigate the loss of survey information, we deployed three uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) equipped with echosounders to extend the ship-based acoustic-trawl time series of pollock abundance. Trawling was not possible from USVs, so an empirical relationship between pollock backscatter and biomass established from previous surveys was developed to convert USV backscatter observations into pollock abundance. The EBS is well suited for this approach since pollock dominate midwater fishes in the survey area. Acoustic data from the USVs were combined with historical surveys to provide a consistent fishery-independent index in 2020. This application demonstrates the unique capabilities of USVs and how they could be rapidly deployed to collect information on pollock abundance and distribution when a ship-based survey was not feasible. We note the limitations of this approach (e.g. higher uncertainty relative to previous ship-based surveys), but found the USV survey to be useful in informing the stock assessment in a situation where ship-based surveys were not possible.

Description: China's mariculture is an indispensable part of the world's aquaculture and helps address food security issues in China and around the globe. However, this industry is facing a grand challenge from global warming. Therefore, it is urgent to assess the sensitivity of the main mariculture species and production modes to the increasing temperature. Here, we first extracted the coastal temperature data from 1465 grid cells (0.25 × 0.25 arcdegree) in the mariculture regions, and then compiled an upper thermal limit as well as culturing modes dataset of forty-two commercially important mariculture species. With these two datasets, we calculated the thermal safety margin (TSM) for each species across its aquaculture regions. Our results showed that several species with low TSMs were particularly sensitive to the current conditions and future warming, and some culturing regions face catastrophic consequences caused by high temperature and potential heatwaves. It is also noted that several mariculture modes like pond farming and mudflat ranching were more vulnerable compared to other mariculture modes. In summary, China's mariculture industry is sensitive to global warming at present and in the future. Our present study also provided tools to assess the risks in mariculture production and suggested solutions for future mitigation and adaptations.

Description: Many management bodies require applying the precautionary approach when managing marine fisheries resources to achieve sustainability and avoid exceeding limits. For data-limited stocks, however, defining and achieving management objectives can be difficult. Management procedures can be optimized towards specific management objectives with genetic algorithms. We explored the feasibility of including an objective that limited the risk of a stock falling below various limit reference points in the optimization routine for an empirical data-limited control rule that uses a biomass index, mean catch length, and includes constraints (the “rfb-rule”). This was tested through management strategy evaluation on several fish stocks representing various life-history traits. We show that risk objectives could be met, but more restrictive risk limits can lead to a potential loss of yield. Outcomes were sensitive to simulation conditions such as observation uncertainty, which can be highly uncertain in data-limited situations. The rfb-rule outperforms the method currently applied by ICES, particularly when risk limitation objectives are considered. We conclude that the application of explicit precautionary levels is useful to avoid overfishing. However, we caution against the indiscriminate use of arbitrary risk limits without scientific evaluation to analyse their impact on stock yields and sustainability.

Description: Food webs are central entities mediating processes and external pressures in marine ecosystems. They are essential to understand and predict ecosystem dynamics and provision of ecosystem services. Paradoxically, utilization of food web knowledge in marine environmental conservation and resource management is limited. To better understand the use of knowledge and barriers to incorporation in management, we assess its application related to the management of eutrophication, chemical contamination, fish stocks, and non-indigenous species. We focus on the Baltic, a severely impacted, but also intensely studied and actively managed semi-enclosed sea. Our assessment shows food web processes playing a central role in all four areas, but application varies strongly, from formalized integration in management decisions, to support in selecting indicators and setting threshold values, to informal knowledge explaining ecosystem dynamics and management performance. Barriers for integration are complexity of involved ecological processes and that management frameworks are not designed to handle such information. We provide a categorization of the multi-faceted uses of food web knowledge and benefits of future incorporation in management, especially moving towards ecosystem-based approaches as guiding principle in present marine policies and directives. We close with perspectives on research needs to support this move considering global and regional change.

Description: Catch data from bottom trawl surveys are used in various ways (e.g. stock assessments, fisheries management, and ecosystem studies) to represent trends in fish populations across space, time, season, or size. Relative abundance indices assume constant capture efficiency, and area-swept abundance requires an estimate of capture efficiency. Therefore, it is important to develop a predictive understanding of the interaction between fish and survey gear. We conducted experiments to test two primary factors that influence the efficiency of survey trawls at capturing demersal groundfish: (1) footrope escapement—estimated by attaching a collection bag beneath the primary trawl, and (2) herding of the sweeps/doors—estimated by varying sweep length. Random forest models were used to disentangle the herding effect from patterns caused by environmental variables. Contrary to common assumptions, footrope efficiency was incomplete (〈 100%) and herding was non-trivial (〉 0%), which introduces a bias in population metrics that rely on such assumptions. This bias varied by species and depended upon the relative strength of the counteracting effects of footrope escapement and herding. Our findings suggest that trawl efficiency should be estimated (not assumed) to derive area-swept abundance, and relative abundance indices should account for size-based efficiency and changing size compositions.

Description: Vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) are typically fragile and slow to recover, making them likely to be substantially altered by disturbance. In the High Seas, regional fishery management organizations (RFMOs) are required to implement measures to prevent significant adverse impacts on VMEs. The objectives of the present study were to: update distribution models of VME indicator taxa in the South Pacific RFMO Convention Area; evaluate these against newly-collated independent field data to test the reliability of the presence-only habitat suitability models; and assess how well the updated models were able to predict into unsampled space. Ensemble habitat suitability models of 10 VME indicator taxa performed well using the newly collated data (AUC 〉 0.95, TSS 〉 0.76, and RMSE  0.93, TSS 〉 0.71, and RMSE

Description: Incorporating ecological covariates into fishery stock assessments may improve estimates, but most covariates are estimated with error. Model selection criteria are often used to identify support for covariates, have some limitations and rely on assumptions that are often violated. For a more rigorous evaluation of ecological covariates, we used four popular selection criteria to identify covariates influencing natural mortality or recruitment in a Bayesian stock assessment of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Within this framework, covariates were incorporated either as fixed effects or as latent variables (i.e. covariates have associated error). We found most support for pink salmon increasing natural mortality, which was selected by three of four criteria. There was ambiguous support for other fixed effects on natural mortality (walleye pollock and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation) and recruitment (hatchery-released juvenile pink salmon and a 1989 regime shift). Generally, similar criteria values among covariates suggest no clear evidence for a consistent effect of any covariate. Models with covariates as latent variables were sensitive to prior specification and may provide potentially very different results. We recommend using multiple criteria and exploring different statistical assumptions about covariates for their use in stock assessment.

Description: Ecological interactions among marine zooplankton are poorly described because conventional sampling gears, such as plankton nets and traps, obscure the physical and biological environment that individuals experience. With in situ imagery, however, it is possible to resolve these interactions and potentially convert snapshot distributions into process-oriented oceanographic and ecological understanding. We describe a variety of imagery-detected ecological interactions with high spatial resolution in the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf waters (20–35 m bottom depth), providing new evidence of parasitism, predation, and life stage spatial structuring for different zooplankton groups. Chaetognaths were infected with an anteriorly attached, parasitic polychaete (1.1% of 33 824 individuals), and these infected chaetognaths were more common further offshore, south of a nearshore patch where unparasitized individuals reached concentrations of ∼90 m–3. Predation by Liriope spp. hydromedusae tended to occur in the shallowest 10–15 m, and doliolids formed distinct patches of different life stages, indicating that the environment is replete with sharp transitions among various ecological processes. Similar patterns in other marine ecosystems likely exist, and we encourage hybrid (machine/human expertise) approaches that broaden the scope for analysis of plankton images, which are rich sources of new ecological information and hypotheses yet to be examined quantitatively.

Description: As industrialized fishing activities have moved into deeper water, the recognition of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) has become important for the protection of the deep-sea. Our limited knowledge on the past and present distribution of VMEs hinders our ability to manage bottom fisheries effectively. This study investigated whether accounting for bottom fishing intensity (derived from Vessel Monitoring System records) as a predictor in habitat suitability models can (1) improve predictions of, and (2) provide estimates for a pre-fishing baseline for the distribution and biomass of a VME indicator taxon. Random Forest models were applied to presence/absence and biomass of Geodia sponges and environmental variables with and without bottom fishing intensity. The models including fishing were further used to predict distribution and biomass of Geodia to a pre-fishing scenario. Inclusion of fishing pressure as a predictive term significantly improved model performance for both sponge presence and biomass. This study has demonstrated a way to produce a more accurate picture of the current distribution of VMEs in the study area. The pre-fishing scenario predictions also identified areas of suitable Geodia habitat that are currently impacted by fishing, suggesting that sponge habitat and biomass have been impacted by bottom trawling activities.

Description: Two end-to-end ecosystem models, NORWECOM.E2E and NoBa Atlantis, have been used to explore a selection of indicators from the Barents Sea Management plans (BSMP). The indicators included in the BSMP are a combination of simple (e.g. temperature, biomass, and abundance) and complex (e.g. trophic level and biomass of functional groups). The abiotic indicators are found to serve more as a tool to report on climate trends rather than being ecological indicators. It is shown that the selected indicators give a good overview of the ecosystem state, but that overarching management targets and lack of connection between indicators and management actions makes it questionable if the indicator system is suitable for direct use in management as such. The lack of socio-economic and economic indicators prevents a holistic view of the system, and an inclusion of these in future management plans is recommended. The evaluated indicators perform well as an assessment of the ecosystem, but consistency and representativeness are extremely dependent on the time and in what area they are sampled. This conclusion strongly supports the inclusion of an observing system simulation experiment in management plans, to make sure that the observations represent the properties that the indicators need.

Description: Qualitative Network Models (QNMs), Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs), and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) have been proposed as methods to formalize conceptual models of social–ecological systems and project system responses to management interventions or environmental change. To explore how these different methods might influence conclusions about system dynamics, we assembled conceptual models representing three different coastal systems, adapted them to the network approaches, and evaluated outcomes under scenarios representing increased fishing effort and environmental warming. The sign of projected change was the same across the three network models for 31–60% of system variables on average. Pairwise agreement between network models was higher, ranging from 33 to 92%; average levels of similarity were comparable between network pairs. Agreement measures based on both the sign and strength of change were substantially worse for all model comparisons. These general patterns were similar across systems and scenarios. Different outcomes between models led to different inferences regarding trade-offs under the scenarios. We recommend deployment of all three methods, when feasible, to better characterize structural uncertainty and leverage insights gained under one framework to inform the others. Improvements in precision will require model refinement through data integration and model validation.

Description: Nephrops (Nephrops norvegicus) is an economically valuable target species in the North Sea. Although individual Nephrops populations are scattered, the crustacean is managed regionally by the European Union (EU). The spatial competition for fisheries in the North Sea is growing especially due to expanding offshore wind farms (OWF) and newly implemented marine protected areas (MPA). Moreover, the Brexit affects the availability of EU fishing quotas and adds to the overall uncertainty EU fishers face. We compare landings and catches to scientifically advised quantities and perform an overlap analysis of fishing grounds with current and future OWFs and MPAs. Furthermore, we explore the German Nephrops fleet using high-resolution spatial fishing effort and catch data. Our results confirm earlier studies showing that Nephrops stocks have been fished above scientific advice. Present OWFs and MPAs marginally overlap with Nephrops fishing grounds, whereas German fishing grounds are covered up to 45% in future scenarios. Co-use strategies with OWFs could mitigate the loss of fishing opportunities. Decreased cod quotas due to Brexit and worse stock conditions, lowers Germany's capability to swap Nephrops quotas with the UK. We support the call for a new management strategy of individual Nephrops populations and the promotion of selective fishing gears.

Description: Mitigating bycatch of non-target fish species is a common objective in fisheries management that may be supported by the gathering of data from fishery observer programs and quantitative analysis of bycatch risk factors. We build three GLM models based on Chinese tuna longline fishery observer data in terms of analysis of total bycatch rate (TB rate), total bycatch ratio (TB ratio), and species-specific bycatch rate, respectively. The positive log-linear models assumed a Gaussian observation error model and a linear combination of categorical independent variables, including area, year, month, depth, and bycatch species. Results show that distributions of TB rate and TB ratio followed different trends and a latitudinal decrease was observed from both the northern and southern hemisphere of the equator. Comprehensively, the Pacific is a better place to fish compared to the Indian and Atlantic Oceans in terms of relatively lower TB rate and TB ratio. Fishing in open oceans can somehow avoid a high TB ratio than fishing in coastal waters. As a result, we recommend area 2SW, 2SE, 2 NW, 14SW, 14SE, and 14 NW as appropriate fishing ground for Albacore (Thunnus alalunga) while area 11N,  11S, 18SW, and 18SE to be appropriate fishing ground for fishing bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus). Setting fishing gears deeper than 500 m would also help to get a low TB rate and TB ratio.

Description: Assessment of zooplankton abundance, distribution, community composition, and temporal variability is critical to understanding the effects of climate variability and change on lower trophic level production and availability for consumption by larger consumers. Zooplankton sampling is performed across the Canadian continental shelf system by Fisheries and Oceans Canada's Atlantic Zone Monitoring Programme (AZMP). Sampling includes semi-monthly to monthly collection of zooplankton using vertical net tows (VNTs) deployed from near-bottom to surface at stations on the central Scotian Shelf (Stn 2, 150 m depth) and Newfoundland Shelf (Stn 27, 175 m depth), and by Continuous Plankton Recorders (CPRs) in the near-surface layers along routes over the Scotian and Newfoundland shelves (0–10 m depth). Here, we compare abundance metrics for 11 copepod taxa collected using both gear types in both regions between 1999 and 2015. Seasonal cycles of VNT and CPR abundance were similar for near-surface residents. VNT: CPR abundance ratios varied year-round for vertical migrants, as ontogenetic migrants shifted their vertical distribution, and as diel migrants changed their migratory behaviour. For some taxa, differences in annual average VNT: CPR abundance ratios between regions suggest differences in vertical distribution, while for others differences in inter-annual variability for VNT and CPR abundances suggest differences in the dynamics of the near- and sub-surface components of the populations.

Description: While the importance of early life survival and growth variations for population dynamics is well documented, there is still a relatively limited understanding of how survival and growth is affected by the species’ spatial distribution. Using Barents Sea spatial bottom survey data (1994–2018), we study the spatiotemporal variability of the juvenile Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) growth and survival. We used indices of the spatial distribution of juvenile cod at age-1 to study the role of distribution for the change in abundance and mean body size through their second winter of life (from age-1 to age-2). Over the 24 years analysed, we found that the location where the age-1 cod are in the Barents Sea matters for their growth and survival. We found that year-classes growing up in the western Barents Sea have higher mortality but faster growth than year-classes distributed farther east. Our results indicate that the biotic and abiotic conditions encountered at the settlement location may influence the spatial survival and growth of age-1 cod and subsequently the population dynamics. Our results underscore the importance of distribution for survival and growth early in life and by providing this essential information has implications for stock assessment and spatial fisheries management.

Description: Spawning timing in fish is generally cyclical in temperate regions in order to increase the probability of matching larval occurrence with ideal environmental conditions. The capelin stock in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Divisions 2J3KL collapsed in 1990–1991 and has not recovered. This collapse was concomitant with collapses in groundfish stocks and cold oceanographic conditions. Using citizen science data, newspaper archives, grey and primary literature, and monitoring data, a century of capelin beach spawning times were compiled. Capelin beach spawning has been persistently 3 weeks later since the stock collapse. To identify potential predictors of capelin spawning timing, an exploratory analysis was conducted using environmental and biological variables and a period factor that categorized a year as either pre-collapse (1990 and earlier) or post-collapse (post-1990) in a step-wise multiple regression model. Spawning timing was predicted to be delayed in the post-collapse period when there were negative anomalies in the Newfoundland and Labrador Climate Index and summer (June–August) North Atlantic Oscillation, and when there was a decrease in mean length of the spawning population. The production of weak year-classes is predicted when spawning is delayed, suggesting that late spawning is severely inhibiting the recovery of the stock.

Description: Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management is a holistic management approach that integrates the dynamics of an entire ecosystem, including societal dimensions. However, this approach seldom lives up to its promise because economic and social objectives are rarely specified. To fill this gap, we explored how an ecosystem model could better integrate economic and social objectives, using the coral reef ecosystem around Hawai`i as a case study. After meeting with stakeholders and conducting a literature review of policy/strategy documents, we identified societal and ecological objectives and associated performance indicators for which data existed. We developed a social–ecological system conceptual framework to illustrate the relationships between ecological and social state components. This framework was the foundation for the development of the final social–ecological system model which we simulated using an Ecopath with Ecosim model. We simulated four gear/species restrictions for the reef-based fishery, two fishing scenarios associated with the opening of hypothetical no-take Marine Protected Areas for the deepwater-based fishery, and a Constant Effort (No Action) scenario. Despite limitations in the model, our approach shows that when social and economic objectives and social–ecological relationships are defined, we can quantify the trade-offs among the identified societal objectives to support managers in choosing among alternative interventions.