ALBERT

Description: A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization’s Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.

Description: This study investigates the differences and connections between the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation, the representation of the horizontal vortex circulation in the middle–high latitudes and the local partitioning of the overturning circulation in the tropics. It concludes that the latter two methods are based on the traditional two-dimensional (2D) decomposition of the vortex and divergent circulations in the fluid dynamics and that the three-pattern decomposition model is not a simple superposition of the two traditional methods but a new three-dimensional (3D) decomposition of global atmospheric circulation. The three-pattern decomposition model can decompose the vertical vorticity of atmosphere into three parts: one part is caused by the horizontal circulation, whereas the other two parts are induced by divergent motions, which correspond to the zonal and meridional circulations. The diagnostic results from the decomposed vertical vorticities accord well with the classic theory: the atmospheric motion at 500 hPa is quasi-horizontal and nondivergent and can represent the vertical mean state of the entire atmosphere. The analysis of the climate characteristics shows that the vertical vorticities of the zonal and meridional circulations are the main cause of the differences between the three-pattern circulations and traditional circulations. The decomposition of the vertical vorticity by the three-pattern decomposition model offers new opportunities to quantitatively study the interaction mechanisms of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations using the vorticity equation.

Description: A convection-permitting regional model simulation for August 2006 and observations are evaluated to better understand the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Sahel. In particular, reasons for a nocturnal rainfall maximum over parts of the Sahel during the height of the West African monsoon are investigated. A relationship between mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity and inter-tropical front (ITF)/dryline dynamics is revealed. Over 90% of the Sahel nocturnal rainfall derives from propagating MCSs that have been associated with topography in earlier studies. In contrast, in this case study, 70–90% of the nocturnal rainfall over the southern Sahel (11°N–14°N) west of 15°E is associated with MCSs that originate less than 1000 km upstream (to the north and east) in the afternoon, in a region largely devoid of significant orography. This MCS development occurs in association with the Sahel ITF, combined with atmospheric pre-conditioning. Daytime surface heating generates turbulent mixing that promotes planetary boundary layer (PBL) growth accompanied by a low-level reversal in the meridional flow. This enhances wind convergence in the low-level moist layer within 2°–3° of latitude of the equatorward side of the ITF. MCSs tend to form when this vertical mixing extends to the level of free convection and is accompanied by a mid-tropospheric African easterly wave disturbance to the east. This synoptic disturbance enhances the vertical wind shear and atmospheric instability over the genesis location. These results are found to be robust across the region.

Description: The link between winter sea ice cover in the Barents Sea (SICBS) and the frequency of spring dust weather over North China (DWFNC) is investigated. It is found that year-to-year variability of SICBS and DWFNC are strongly correlated for the period 1996–2014 with a correlation coefficient of −0.65, whereas the correlation between SICBS and DWFNC is not statistically significant for the periods 1980–2014 and 1980–1995. During 1996–2014, low winter SICBS is associated with decreased snow cover over western Siberia (SCWS) in both winter and spring, which is also supported by a strengthening relationship between winter SICBS and spring SCWS since the mid-1990s. This leads to changes in atmospheric circulation and climate conditions that are favorable for increased frequency of dust weather events over North China. Our further analysis suggests that the interannual variability of the standard deviation of SICBS has intensified and the center of actions has moved eastward to the north Barents Sea and Kara Sea since the mid-1990s. Such change may easily induce stronger and southward stationary Rossby wave train propagation, influencing the dust-related atmospheric circulation (strengthened East Asian subtropical jet, increased cyclogenesis, and larger atmospheric thermal instability). Thus interannual variation of winter SICBS plays an increasingly important role in dust-related climate conditions over North China, which might serve as a new precursor for the prediction of spring dust activity in North China.

Description: South America is one of the most vulnerable areas to stratospheric ozone depletion; consequently, an increased amount of UV radiation reaches the Earth’s surface in this region. In this study, we analyzed the long-term trend in the total ozone column (TOC) over the southern part of the South American continent from 1980 to 2009. The database used was obtained by combining several satellite measurements of the TOC on a 1° (latitude) × 1.25° (longitude) grid. Analysis of the long-term trend was performed by applying the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann–Kendall significance test to the deseasonalized time series. The long-term trend was also analyzed over several highly populated urban zones in the study area. Finally, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to identify and quantify the drivers of interannual variability in the TOC over the study area with a pixel-by-pixel approach. The results showed a decrease in the TOC ranging from −0.3 to −4% dec −1 from 1980 to 2009. On a decadal timescale, there is significant variability in this trend, and a decrease of more than −10% dec −1 was found at high latitudes (1980–1989). However, the trends obtained over much of the study area were not statistically significant. Considering the period from 1980 to 1995, we found a decrease in the TOC of −2.0 ± 0.6% dec −1 at latitudes below 40° S and −6.9 ± 2.0% dec −1 at latitudes above 40° S, for a 99.9% confidence level over most of the study area. Analysis of the period from 1996 to 2009 showed a statistically significant increase of 2.3 ± 0.1% dec −1 at high latitudes (〉 60° S), confirming the initial TOC recovery in the Antarctic. Despite evidence for initial recovery of the TOC in some parts of the study area between 1996 and 2009, the long-term increase from September to November is not yet statistically significant. In addition, large parts of the study area and most of the urban areas continue to show a decreasing trend in the TOC. The MLR results show that at high latitudes, the main driver of interannual variability in the TOC is the total effective amount of halogens, followed by the eddy heat flux.

Description: A dendrochronological profile was generated from Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Qianshan Mountains in northeastern China. Based on correlation analyses, the pattern of precipitation from March to June ( P 36 ) was reconstructed using a simple linear model, which explained 42.7% of the total variance in observed precipitation from 1951 to 2012. The reconstructed P 36 series revealed a consistently increasing trend in precipitation during the twentieth century in the Qianshan Mountains. The reconstructed data showed trends that were similar to those in the variation in trends for March–June precipitation observed at the Shenyang station, the reconstructed January–May precipitation trends in Shenyang City, and the reconstructed average June–September relative humidity for Yiwulü Mountain. The reconstructed data also showed good agreement with the droughts reported in historical documents and recorded by meteorological stations in Liaoning. Spatial correlation analyses show that the reconstructed data reflect the variability in precipitation that occurs over much of northeastern China. In addition, our reconstruction showed a significant periodicity. The significant correlations between the reconstructed P 36 and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sunspot numbers indicate that precipitation variability in the Qianshan Mountain region is probably driven by extensive atmosphere-sea interactions and solar activities.

Description: In this study, the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and its atmospheric teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) toward the North Pacific/North America during boreal winter are investigated. First, we defined the WNP mode as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of SST anomalies over the WNP region (100–165°E, 0–35°N), of which the principle component time-series are significantly correlated with several well-known climate modes such as the warm pool mode which is the second EOF mode of the tropical to North Pacific SST anomalies, North Pacific oscillation (NPO), North Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO), and central Pacific (CP)-El Niño at 95% confidence level, but not correlated with the eastern Pacific (EP)-El Niño. The warm phase of the WNP mode (sea surface warming) is initiated by anomalous southerly winds through reduction of wind speed with the background of northerly mean winds over the WNP during boreal winter, i.e., reduced evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, the atmospheric response to the SST warming pattern and its diabatic heating further enhance the southerly wind anomaly, referred to the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. Thus, the WNP mode is developed and maintained through winter until spring, when the northerly mean wind disappears. Furthermore, it is also known that anomalous upper-level divergence associated with WNP mode leads to the NPO-like structure over the North Pacific and the east–west pressure contrast pattern over the North America through Rossby wave propagation, impacting the climate over the North Pacific and North America.

Description: We evaluated 11 coupled climate model simulations regarding the spatial structures of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, during the second half of the twentieth century. The subset of models includes CCSM4, CSIRO, CanESM and MPI-ESM, participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The evaluation was performed to determine the potential of these models to be used at a later stage as test beds for the evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods that will use the extremely long-lived bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica , an outstanding paleoclimate archive for the boreal and temperate North Atlantic (Schöne, Glob Planet Change 111:199–225, 2013 ). Several validation metrics such as the mean bias, variance, spatial and temporal co-variability and trends of the North Atlantic summer SSTs showed that some of the models can be used to test paleoclimatic reconstructions. However, most models showed shortcomings in simulating the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Concerning the co-variability of summer SSTs between proxy sites and the whole North Atlantic SST field, we found that these proxy locations contain a SST signal that might represent a (basin-wide) signal for the north-eastern North Atlantic basin.

Description: The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Description: This study assesses the performance of 15 high resolution global climate models (GCMs) over the complex orographic region of the subtropical central Andes from available simulations of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The simulated past climate (1980–2005) was compared against the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset and the ERA-Interim reanalysis, considered as reference datasets, to evaluate regional and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation, as well as sea level pressure and circulation. A good agreement was found between the simulations and the reference datasets for winter precipitation and for temperature over both seasons. Whilst all models correctly reproduce the annual cycle of precipitation, some of them overestimate winter totals. ERA-Interim does not adequately represent summer precipitation over the region, and some of the models analyzed also show the same deficiency. All models correctly reproduce the northward migration of the South Pacific subtropical high during winter, although some of them underestimate the maximum central pressure. During summer, most models fail to show the low level north–south flow parallel to the eastern foothills of the Andes, a feature known as the Low Level Jet. Further analysis of the results of the simulations led to the selection of a sub-set of five CMIP5 GCMs to construct a reduced ensemble. This reduced ensemble is a better representation than the multi-model mean of the 15 GCMs of the past climate at this region and would be recommended for future studies.