ALBERT

Description: [1]  Different solutions have been proposed to solve the ‘faint young Sun problem’, defined by the fact that the Earth was not fully frozen during the Archean despite the fainter Sun. Most previous studies were performed with simple 1D radiative convective models and did not account well for the clouds and ice-albedo feedback or the atmospheric and oceanic transport of energy. We apply a Global Climate Model (GCM) to test the different solutions to the faint young Sun problem. We explore the effect of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4 ), atmospheric pressure, cloud droplet size, land distribution and Earth's rotation rate. We show that, neglecting organic haze, 100 mbars of CO 2 with 2 mbars of CH 4 at 3.8 Ga and 10 mbars of CO 2 with 2 mbars of CH 4 at 2.5 Ga allow a temperate climate (mean surface temperature between 10 °C and 20 °C). Such amounts of greenhouse gases remain consistent with the geological data. Removing continents produces a warming lower than +4 °C. The effect of rotation rate is even more limited. Larger droplets (radii of 17  µm versus 12  µm ) and a doubling of the atmospheric pressure produce a similar warming of around +7 °C. In our model, ice-free waterbelts can be maintained up to 25° N/S with less than 1 mbar of CO 2 and no methane. An interesting cloud feedback appears above cold oceans, stopping the glaciation. Such a resistance against full glaciation tends to strongly mitigate the faint young Sun problem.

Description: [1]  The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) is the high spectral resolution spectroradiometer on the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, providing operational observations of top-of-atmosphere thermal infrared radiance spectra for weather and climate applications. This paper describes the CrIS radiometric calibration uncertainty based on pre-launch and on-orbit efforts to estimate calibration parameter uncertainties, and provides example results of recent post-launch validation efforts to assess the predicted uncertainty. Pre-launch Radiometric Uncertainty (RU) estimates computed for the laboratory test environment are less than ~0.2 K 3-sigma for blackbody scene temperatures above 250 K, with primary uncertainty contributions from the calibration blackbody temperature, calibration blackbody reflected radiance terms and detector nonlinearity. Variability of the pre-launch RU among the longwave band detectors and midwave band detectors is due to different levels of detector nonlinearity. A methodology for on-orbit adjustment of nonlinearity correction parameters to reduce the overall contribution to RU and to reduce FOV-to-FOV variability is described. The resulting on-orbit RU estimates for Earth view spectra are less than 0.2 K 3-sigma in the midwave and shortwave bands, and less than 0.3 K 3-sigma in the longwave band. Post-launch validation efforts to assess the radiometric calibration of CrIS are underway; validation results to date indicate that the on-orbit RU estimates are representative. CrIS radiance products are expected to reach “Validated” status in early 2014.

Description: [1]  An extended Tracking Radar Echo by Correlation (TREC) technique, called T-TREC technique, has been developed recently to retrieve horizontal circulations within tropical cyclones (TCs) from single Doppler radar reflectivity ( Z ) and radial velocity ( V r , when available) data. This study explores, for the first time, the assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved winds for a landfalling typhoon, Meranti (2010), into a convection-resolving model, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The T-TREC winds or the original V r data from a single coastal Doppler radar are assimilated at the single time using the WRF 3DVAR, at 8, 6, 4 and 2 hours before the landfall of typhoon Meranti. In general, assimilating T-TREC winds results in better structure and intensity analysis of Meranti than directly assimilating V r data. The subsequent forecasts for the track, intensity, structure and precipitation are also better, although the differences becomes smaller as the V r data coverage improves when the typhoon gets closer to the radar. The ability of the T-TREC retrieval in capturing more accurate and complete vortex circulations in the inner-core region of TC is believed to be the primary reason for its superior performance over direct assimilation of V r data; for the latter, the data coverage is much smaller when the TC is far away and the cross-beam wind component is difficult to analyze accurately with 3DVAR method.

Description: [1]  Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution, hierarchical, five-member ensemble modeling experiment that includes a global climate model (CCSM), a regional climate model (RegCM), and a hydrological model (VIC), we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, baseflow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades, but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and April 1 st snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Description: [1]  The consequences of different Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) nudging widths on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry are analyzed by comparing two model simulations with NCAR's WACCM model where the width of the QBO is varied between 22° and 8.5°N and S. The sensitivity to the nudging width is strongest in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter where the Holton-Tan effect in the polar stratosphere, i.e., stronger zonal mean winds during QBO west phases, is enhanced for the wider compared to the narrower nudging case. The differences between QBO west and east conditions for the two model experiments can be explained with differences in wave propagation, wave-mean flow interaction and the residual circulation. In the wider nudging case a divergence anomaly in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere occurs together with an equatorward anomaly of the residual circulation. This seems to result in a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient and hence a significant strengthening of the polar night jet (PNJ). In the narrower nudging case these circulation changes are weaker and not statistically significant, consistent with a weaker and less significant impact on the PNJ. Chemical tracers like ozone, water vapour and methane react accordingly. From a comparison of westerly minus easterly phase composite differences in the model to reanalysis and satellite data we conclude that the standard WACCM configuration (QBO22) generates more realistic QBO effects in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry during NH winter. Our study also confirms the importance of the secondary mean meridional circulation associated with the QBO for the Holton-Tan effect.

Description: [1]  The microphysical properties of ice fog were measured at two sites during a small IOP in January and February of 2012 in the Interior Alaska. The NCAR Video Ice Particle Sampler (VIPS) probe and formvar (polyvinyl formal) coated microscope slides were used to sample airborne ice particles at two polluted sites in the Fairbanks region. Both sites were significantly influenced by anthropogenic emission and additional water vapor from nearby open water power plant cooling ponds. Measurements show that ice fog particles were generally droxtal-shaped (faceted, quasi-spherical) for sub-10 µm particles, while plate shaped crystals were the most frequently observed particles between 10 and 50 µm. A visibility cutoff of 3 kilometers was used to separate ice fog events from other observations which were significantly influenced by larger (50–150 µm) diamond dust particles. [2]  The purpose of this study is to more realistically characterize ice fog microphysical properties in order to facilitate better model predictions of the onset of ice fog in polluted environments. Parameterizations for mass and projected area are developed and used to estimate particle terminal velocity. Dimensional characteristics are based on particle geometry and indicated that ice fog particles have significantly lower density values than water droplets as well as reduced cross-sectional areas, the net result being that terminal velocities are estimated to be less than half the value of those calculated for water droplets. Particle size distributions are characterized using gamma functions and have a shape factor (μ) of between −0.5 and −1.0 for polluted ice fog conditions.

Description: [1]  In our recent paper [6], the sensitivity of infrasound to the upper atmosphere is investigated using impulsive signals from the Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador. We reported on the coherent variability of thermospheric travel times, with periods equal to those of the tidal harmonics. Moreover, it was shown that the error in predicted thermospheric travel time is in accord with typical uncertainties in the upper atmospheric wind speed models. Given the observed response of the infrasound celerities to upper atmospheric tidal variability, it was suggested that infrasound observations may be used to reduce uncertainty in the knowledge of the atmospheric specifications in the upper atmosphere. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of upper atmospheric wind model updates from the infrasound data described in the aforementioned paper. The parameterization of the model space by empirical orthogonal functions is described; it is found that the wind model in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere can be described by a four-parameter model. Due to the small dimensionality of the model space, a grid search method can be used to solve the inverse problem. A Bayesian method is used to assess the uncertainty in the inverse solution given the a priori uncertainty in the data and model spaces and the non-linearity of the inverse problem at hand. We believe that this is the first study in which such methods are applied to real infrasound data, allowing for a rigorous analysis of this inverse problem. It is found that the complexity of the a posteriori model distribution increases for a larger dimensional model space and larger uncertainties in the data. A case study is presented in which the non-linear propagation from source to receiver is simulated using an updated wind model and non-linear ray theory. As non-linear propagation effects further constrain the propagation path, this is a way to check the physical self-consistency of the travel time inversion approach. We obtain excellent agreement between the simulated and observed waveforms.

Description: [1]  Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40 ∘ N, 105 ∘ W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: 1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from − 2km below to 10km above the TP. 2) Sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TP z  〉 14km), extratropical (TP z  〈 12km), and transitional air mass types (12km 〈 TP z  〈 14km), reveal three different water vapor reservoirs. The analysis based on these concepts reduces the dynamically–induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study showshow uncertain trends are at altitudes −2 to + 4km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between −2 to 2km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation.

Description: [1]  Retrievals of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) from space-based spectrometers are in a relatively early stage of development. Factors such as interference between ozone and SO 2 in the retrieval algorithms often lead to errors in the retrieved values. Measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY), and Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment −2 (GOME-2) satellite sensors, averaged over a period of several years, were used to identify locations with elevated SO 2 values and estimate their emission levels. About 30 such locations, detectable by all three sensors and linked to volcanic and anthropogenic sources, were found, after applying low- and high- spatial frequency filtration designed to reduce noise and bias and to enhance weak signals to SO 2 data from each instrument. Quantitatively, the mean amount of SO 2 in the vicinity of the sources, estimated from the three instruments is in general agreement. However, it's better spatial resolution makes it possible for OMI to detect smaller sources and with additional more detail as compared to the other two instruments. Over some regions of China, SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 data show mean SO 2 values that are almost 1.5 times higher than those from OMI but the suggested spatial filtration technique largely reconciles these differences.

Description: [1]  Dust is an important indicator of climate change. In paleo-climate research, sediments bearing signals of dust deposition offer a rich archive for climate-change history. However, the dust-climate link is very complex due to the various direct and indirect feedbacks in the Earth system. In this study, we examine two issues: (1) given the recent global warming, what are the dust variations, both globally and in key dust regions? and, (2) what are the climate drivers behind the variations? Using synoptic data for the period 1974-2012, we analyzed the global trend of dust frequency and visibility-derived dust concentrations and their characteristics in key dust regions, including North Africa, the Middle East, Southwest Asia, Northeast Asia, South America and Australia. We also examined the likely climate drivers for dust variations in the different regions by computing the correlations between the time series of dust and of major climate indices – the MEI (Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation). It was found that over the period 1984–2012, the global-mean (excluding North America and Europe) near-surface dust concentration decreased at 1.2% yr -1 . This decrease is mainly due to reduced dust activities in North Africa, accompanied by reduced activities in Northeast Asia, South America, and South Africa. A significant negative correlation between Saharan dust and AMO was detected and it seems reasonable to suggest that under present climate, the global dust trend is determined by the climate systems governing the Atlantic and North African regimes.