ALBERT

Description: [1]  We investigated the evolution of seismicity and deformation in the unstable eastern flank of Etna volcano over a thirty-year period (from 1980 to 2012). A significant temporal correlation has been revealed between periods of flank acceleration and intensified seismic activity by comparing seismicity along the northern border (Pernicana fault system) of the sliding flank and the deformation of the eastern flank. Two marked phases have been observed in 1984-1986 and in the years following 2002. These two phases are separated by an intermediate phase from 1987 to 2001, in which the flank sliding slowed down and the seismicity dropped drastically. This common temporal evolution in the deformation rate and seismic release supports the hypothesis that the seismicity in the northern border can be viewed as a marker of the response to accommodate the stress exerted by the traction of the eastern flank sliding. This interplay has also been corroborated by Finite Element Method (FEM) numerical computations that highlight a good correlation between the seismicity pattern and areas of positive stress changes induced by the sliding surface. The two intense phases of flank acceleration are representative of two main different sources: volcano flank instability stretching the eastern sector in the first 1984-1986 phase and magmatic intrusions pushing the eastern flank seaward since the 2002-03 eruption. Establishing the relationship between flank acceleration and seismic activation, therefore, contributes to understanding Etna's mechanical behavior, and provides insights into the processes regulating the unstable flank response.

Description: [1]  Numerous studies in the Central Pyrenees have provided evidence for a rapid phase of exhumation of this mountain belt during the Late Eocene (37–30 Ma). Simultaneously, the closure of the Ebro foreland basin allowed the accumulation of sediments at the southern Piedmont, which partially covered the fold-and-thrust belt from Late Eocene ( e . g . when it was still actively deforming) to Miocene times. We aim here at understanding the consequences of such syn-tectonic sedimentation on the Southern Pyrenean fold-and-thrust belt by using a 2-D numerical model that reproduces the development of a thin-skinned wedge subject to different modes of sedimentation and erosion. The results show contrasting fold-and-thrust belt behavior when applying aggrading or prograding sedimentation, which we link to the critical state of the wedge. When the sediments are sourced from the hinterland (progradation), the thrusting propagates toward the foreland; whereas when the sediments aggrade from the basin, the thrusting sequence migrates backward. This latter mode shows patterns of deformation that compare favorably to the Pyrenean thrusting sequence observed during Eocene-Miocene times.

Description: [1]  In southern California, fault slip rate estimates along the San Andreas fault (SAF) and Garlock fault from geodetically-constrained kinematic models are systematically at the low end or lower than geologic slip rate estimates. The sum of geodetic model slip rates across the Eastern California Shear Zone is higher than the geologic sum. However, the ranges of reported model and geologic slip rate estimates in the literature are sufficiently large that it remains unclear whether these apparent discrepancies are real, or attributable to epistemic uncertainties in the two types of estimates. We further examine uncertainties in geodetically-derived slip rate estimates on major faults in southern California by conducting a suite of inversions with four kinematic models. Long-term-rigid elastic block models constrained by the geologic slip rates cannot fit the present-day GPS-derived velocity field. Deforming (permanent off-fault strain) elastic block models and viscoelastic earthquake cycle block models constrained by geologic slip rates can fit the present-day GPS-derived velocity field with 28-33% of the total geodetic moment rate occurring as distributed deformation off of the major faults. Models incorporating viscoelastic mantle flow predict systematically higher slip rates than purely elastic models on many of the the major southern California faults with ranges of (elastic/viscoelastic) 29-34/30-37 mm/yr for the Carrizo SAF segment, 20-24/20-32 mm/yr for the Mojave SAF segment, 14-17/18-22 mm/yr for the Coachella SAF segment, 13-19/14-22 mm/yr for the San Jacinto fault, and 5-11/5-11 mm/yr for the western Garlock fault.

Description: [1]  Determining the scale-length, magnitude, and distribution of heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle is crucial to understanding whole mantle dynamics, and yet it remains a much debated and ongoing challenge in geophysics. Common shortcomings of current seismically-derived lowermost mantle models are incomplete raypath coverage, arbitrary model parameterization, inaccurate uncertainty estimates, and an ad hoc definition of the misfit function in the optimization framework. In response, we present a new approach to global tomography. Apart from improving the existing raypath coverage using only high quality cross-correlated waveforms, the problem is addressed within a Bayesian framework where explicit regularization of model parameters is notrequired. We obtain high resolution images, complete with uncertainty estimates, of the lowermost mantle P-wave velocity structure using a hand-picked dataset of PKPab-df, PKPbc-df, and PcP-P differential traveltimes. Most importantly, our results demonstrate that the root mean square of the P-wave velocity variations in the lowermost mantle is approximately 0.87%, which is three times larger than previous global-scale estimates.

Description: [1]  The Dzhungarian strike-slip fault of Central Asia is one of a series of long, NW-SE right-lateral strike-slip faults that are characteristic of the northern Tien Shan region, and extends over 300 km from the high mountains into the Kazakh Platform. Our field-based and satellite observations reveal that the Dzhungarian fault can be characterised by three 100 km long sections based on variation in strike direction. Through morphological analysis of offset streams and alluvial fans, and through OSLdating, we find that the Dzhungarian fault has a minimum average late Quaternary slip rate of 2.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr and accommodates N-S shortening related to the India-Eurasia collision. This shortening may also be partly accommodated by counter-clockwise rotation about a vertical axis. Evidence for a possible paleo-earthquake rupture indicates that earthquakes up to at least Mw 7 can be associated with just the partitioned component of reverse slip on segments of the central section of the fault up to 30 km long. An event rupturing longer sections of the Dzhungarian fault has the potential to generate greater magnitude earthquakes ( Mw 8), however long time periods (e.g. thousands of years) are expected in order to accumulate enough strain to generate such earthquakes.

Description: [1]  We performed shock compression experiments on preheated forsterite liquid (Mg 2 SiO 4 ) at an initial temperature of 2273 K and have revised the equation of state (EOS) that was previously determined by shock melting of initially solid Mg 2 SiO 4 (300 K). The linear Hugoniot, U S  = 2.674 ± 0.188 + 1.64 ± 0.06 u p km/s, constrains the bulk sound speed within a temperature and composition space as yet unexplored by 1-bar ultrasonic experiments. We have also revised the EOS for enstatite liquid (MgSiO 3 ) to exclude experiments that may have been only partially melted upon shock compression and also the EOS for anorthite liquid, which now excludes potentially un-relaxed experiments at low pressure. The revised fits and the previously determined EOS of fayalite and diopside were used to produce isentropes in the multicomponent CaO-MgO-Al 2 O 3 -SiO 2 -FeO system at elevated temperatures and pressures. Our results are similar to those previously presented for peridotite and simplified “chondrite” liquids such that regardless of where crystallization first occurs, the liquidus solid sinks upon formation. This process is not conducive to the formation of a basal magma ocean. We also examined the chemical and physical plausibility of the partial melt hypothesis to explain the occurrence and characteristics of ultralow velocity zones. We determined that the ambient mantle cannot produce an equilibrium partial melt and residue that is sufficiently dense to be a ULVZ mush. The partial melt would need to be segregated from its equilibrium residue and combined with a denser solid component to achieve a sufficiently large aggregate density.

Description: [1]  High resolution sparker and crustal-scale airgun seismic reflection data, coupled with repeat bathymetric surveys, document a region of repeated coseismic uplift on the portion of the Alaska subduction zone that ruptured in 1964. This area defines the western limit of Prince William Sound. Differencing of vintage and modern bathymetric surveys shows that the region of greatest uplift related to the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was focused along a series of sub-parallel faults beneath Prince William Sound and the adjacent Gulf of Alaska shelf. Bathymetric differencing indicates that 12 m of coseismic uplift occurred along two faults that reached the sea floor as submarine terraces on the Cape Cleare bank southwest of Montague Island. Sparker seismic reflection data provide cumulative Holocene slip estimates as high as 9 mm/yr along a series of splay thrust faults within both the inner wedge and transition zone of the accretionary prism. Crustal seismic data show that these megathrust splay faults root separately into the subduction zone décollement. Splay fault divergence from this megathrust correlates with changes in mid-crustal seismic velocity and magnetic susceptibility values, best explained by duplexing of the subducted Yakutat terrane rocks above Pacific plate rocks along the trailing edge of the Yakutat terrane. Although each splay fault is capable of independent motion, we conclude that the identified splay faults rupture in a similar pattern during successive megathrust earthquakes and that the region of greatest seismic coupling has remained consistent throughout the Holocene.

Description: [1]  We perform a time-lapse analysis of Rayleigh and Love wave anisotropy above an underground gas storage facility in the Paris Basin. The data were acquired with a three-component seismic array deployed during several days in April and November 2010. Phase velocity and back azimuth of Rayleigh and Love waves are measured in the frequency range 0.2-1.1 Hz using a three-component beamforming algorithm. In both snapshots, higher surface wave modes start dominating the signal above 0.4 Hz with a concurrent increase in back azimuth ranges. We fit anisotropy parameters to the array detections above 0.4 Hz using a bootstrap approach which also provides estimation uncertainty and enables significance testing. The isotropic phase velocity dispersion for Love and Rayleigh waves match for both snapshots. We also observe a stable fast direction of NNW-SSE for Love and Rayleigh waves which is aligned with the preferred orientation of known shallow (〈300 m) and deeper (~1000 m) fault systems in the area, as well as the maximum horizontal stress orientation. At lower frequencies corresponding to deeper parts of the basin, the anisotropic parameters exhibit higher magnitude in the November data. This may perhaps be caused by the higher pore-pressure changes in the gas reservoir in that depth range.

Description: [1]  Eruptive activity at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii beginning in 2010 and continuing to the present time is characterized by transient outgassing bursts accompanied by very long period (VLP) seismic signals triggered by rockfalls from the vent walls impacting a lava lake in a pit within the Halemaumau pit crater. We use raw data recorded with a 11-station broadband network to model the source mechanism of signals accompanying two large rockfalls on August 29, 2012 and two smaller average rockfalls obtained by stacking over all events with similar waveforms to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. To determine the source centroid location and source mechanism, we minimize the residual error between data and synthetics calculated by the finite difference method for a point source embedded in a homogeneous medium that takes topography into account. We apply a new waveform inversion method that accounts for the contributions from both translation and tilt in horizontal seismograms through the use of Green's functions representing the seismometer response to translation and tilt ground motions. This method enables a robust description of the source mechanism over the period range 1-1000 s. The VLP signals associated with the rockfalls originate in a source region ~1 km below the eastern perimeter of the Halemaumau pit crater. The observed waveforms are well explained by a simple volumetric source with geometry composed of two intersecting cracks including an east striking crack (dike) dipping 80 ∘ to the north, intersecting a north striking crack (another dike) dipping 65 ∘ to the east. Each rockfall is marked by a similar step-like inflation trailed by decaying oscillations of the volumetric source, attributed to the efficient coupling at the source centroid location of the pressure and momentum changes induced by the rock mass impacting the top of the lava column. Assuming a simple lumped parameter representation of the shallow magmatic system, the observed pressure and volume variations can be modeled with the following attributes: rockfall volume (200 − 4500 m 3 ), length of magma column (120-210 m), diameter of pipe connecting the Halemaumau pit crater to the subjacent dike system (6 m), average thickness of the two underlying dikes (3 – 6 m), and effective magma viscosity (30–210 Pa s). Most rockfalls occur during episodes of sustained deflation of the Kilauea summit. The mass loss rate in the shallow magmatic system is estimated to be 1400  −  15, 000 kg s − 1 based on measurements of the temporal variation of VLP period in the two large rockfalls that occurred on August 29, 2012.

Description: [1]  On 5 September 2012, a large thrust earthquake (M w 7.6) ruptured a densely-instrumented seismic gap on the shallow-dipping plate boundary beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica. Ground motion recordings directly above the rupture zone provide a unique opportunity to study the detailed source process of a large shallow megathrust earthquake using very nearby land observations. Hypocenter relocation using local seismic network data indicates that the event initiated with small emergent seismic waves from a hypocenter ~10 km offshore, 13 km deep on the megathrust. A joint finite-fault inversion using high-rate GPS, strong-motion ground velocity recordings, GPS static offsets, and teleseismic P waves reveals that the primary slip zone (slip 〉 1 m) is located beneath the peninsula. The rupture propagated down-dip from the hypocenter with a rupture velocity of ~3.0 km/s. The primary slip zone extends ~70 km along strike and ~30 km along dip, with an average slip of ~2 m. The associated static stress drop is ~3 MPa. The seismic moment is 3.5 x 10 20  Nm, giving M w  = 7.6. The co-seismic large-slip patch directly overlaps an onshore inter-seismic locked region indicated by geodetic observations, and extends down-dip to the intersection with the upper plate Moho. At deeper depths, below the upper plate Moho, seismic tremor and low frequency earthquakes have been observed. Most tremor locates in adjacent areas of the megathrust that have little co-seismic slip; a region of prior slow slip deformation to the southeast also has no significant co-seismic slip or aftershocks. An offshore locked patch indicated by geodetic observations does not appear to have experienced co-seismic slip, and aftershocks do not overlap this region, allowing the potential for a comparable size rupture offshore in the future.

Description: [1]  Seismic shear waves emitted by earthquakes can be modeled as plane (transverse) waves. When entering an anisotropic medium they can be split into two orthogonal components moving at different speeds. This splitting occurs along an axis, the fast polarization, that is determined by geologic conditions. We present here a comprehensive analysis of the Silver and Chan (1991) method, used to obtain shear wave splitting parameters, comprising theoretical derivations and statistical tests of the assumptions used to construct the standard errors. We find discrepancies in the derivations of equations in their article, with the most important being a mistake in how the standard errors are calculated. Our simulations suggest that the degrees of freedom are being overestimated by this method and consequently the standard errors are too small. Using a set of S waveforms from very similar shallow earthquakes on Reunion Island, we perform a statistical analysis on the noise of these replicates and find that the assumption of Gaussian noise does not hold. Further, the properties of background noise differ substantially from the noise obtained from the shear wave splitting analysis. However, we find that the standard errors for the fast polarization are comparable to the spread in the fast polarization parameters. Delay time errors appear to be comparable to delay time estimates once cycle skipping is accounted for. Future work using synthetic seismograms with simulated noise should be conducted to confirm this is the case for earthquakes in general.

Description: [1]  The sliver strike-slip Great Sumatra Fault (GSF) traverses mainland Sumatra from the Sunda Strait in the southeast to Banda Aceh in the northwest, and defines the present day plate boundary between the Sunda Plate in the north and the Burmese Sliver Plate in the south. It has been well studied on mainland Sumatra but poorly north of Banda Aceh in the Andaman Sea. Here we present deep seismic reflection images along the northward extension of the GSF over 700 km until it joins the Andaman Sea Spreading Centre and we interpret these images in the light of earthquake, gravity, and bathymetry data. We find that the GSF has two strands between Banda Aceh and Nicobar Island: a transpression in the south and a deep narrow active rift system in the north dotted with volcanoes in the center, suggesting that the volcanic arc is coincident with rifting. Further north of Nicobar Island, an active strike-slip fault, the Andaman-Nicobar Fault, cuts through a rifted deep basin until its intersection with the Andaman Sea Spreading Centre. The volcanic arc lies just east of the rift basin. The western margin of this basin seems to be a rifted continental margin, tilted westward, and flooring the Andaman-Nicobar forearc basin. The Andaman-Nicobar forearc basin is bounded in the west by backthrusts similar to the West Andaman and Mentawai faults. The cluster of seismicity after the 2004 great Andaman-Sumatra earthquake just north of Nicobar Island coincides with the intersection of two strike-slip fault systems.

Description: [1]  The Japan Tohoku-Oki earthquake (9.0 Mw) of 11 March 2011 has left signatures in the Earth's gravity field that are detectable by data of the GRACE mission. Because ESA's satellite gravity mission GOCE – launched in 2009 – aims at high spatial resolution, its measurements could complement the GRACE information on coseismic gravity changes, although time-variable gravity was not foreseen as goal of the GOCE mission. We modeled the coseismic earthquake geoid signal and converted this signal to vertical gravity gradients at GOCE satellite altitude. We combined the single gradient observations in a novel way reducing the noise level, required to detect the coseismic gravity change, subtracted a global gravity model, and applied tailored outlier detection to the resulting gradient residuals. Furthermore, the measured gradients were along-track filtered using different gradient bandwidths where in the space domain Gaussian smoothing has been applied. One year periods before and after earthquake occurrence have been compared with the modeled gradients. The comparison reveals that the earthquake signal is well above the accuracy of the vertical gravity gradients at orbital height. Moreover, the obtained signal from GOCE shows a 1.3 times higher amplitude compared with the modeled signal. Besides the statistical significance of the obtained signal, it has a high spatial correlation of ~0.7 with the forward modeled signal. We conclude therefore that the coseismic gravity change of the Japan Tohoku-Oki earthquake left a statistically significant signal in the GOCE measured gravity gradients.

Description: [1]  The Ninetyeast Ridge (NER), one of the longest linear volcanic features on the Earth, offers an excellent opportunity of understanding the isostatic response to the interactions of mantle plume with the migrating mid-ocean ridge. Bathymetry, geoid and gravity (ship-borne and satellite) data along 72 closely spaced transects and 17 overlapping grids on the NER are analyzed and modeled to determine the effective elastic thickness ( Te ) beneath the entire ridge. The results of 2-D and 3-D flexural modeling of the NER show large spatial variations in Te values ranging from 4 to 35 km, suggesting that the ridge was compensated along its length by different isostatic mechanisms. The southern (south of 22°S latitude) and northern (north of 2°N latitude) parts of the NER have Te values of 〉10 and 〉23 km, respectively, revealing that the southern part was emplaced on a lithosphere of intermediate strength possibly on flank of the Indian plate, whereas the northern part was emplaced in an intraplate setting. In contrast, in the central part of the NER (between latitudes 22°S and 2°N), highly variable Te values (4–22 km) are estimated. The scattered Te values in the central NER suggest that this part may have evolved due to the occurrence of more frequent ridge jumps caused by the interaction of Kerguelen hot spot with rapid northward migration of the Wharton spreading ridge. Residual Mantle Bouguer Anomaly (RMBA) map of the NER and adjacent basins reveals that the entire length of the NER is associated with a significant negative anomaly up to 200 mGal, indicating the presence of thickened crust or less dense mantle beneath the ridge. 3-D crustal thickness map of the NER, generated by inversion of the RMBA data, shows a thick crust ranging from 15 to 19 km. The present study clearly shows that NER possesses a highly segmented isostatic pattern with the occurrence of sub-crustal underplating or sub-surface loading.

Description: [1]  We conducted deep-sea magnetic measurements using autonomous underwater vehicles in the Bayonnaise knoll caldera, the Izu-Ogasawara island arc, which hosts the large Hakurei hydrothermal field. We improved the conventional correction method applied for removing the effect of vehicle magnetization, thus greatly enhancing the precision of the resulting vector anomalies. The magnetization distribution obtained from the vector anomaly data shows an ∼ 2-km-wide belt of high magnetization, trending NNW–SSE going through the caldera, and a low magnetization zone ∼ 300 m by ∼ 500 m in area, extending over the Hakurei site. Comparison between the results obtained using the vector anomaly and the total intensity anomaly shows that the magnetic field is determined more accurately, especially in areas of sparse data distribution, when the vector anomaly rather than the total intensity anomaly is used. We suggest a geologically motivated model that basaltic volcanism associated with the backarc rifting occurred after the formation of the caldera, resulting in the formation of the high magnetization belt underneath the silicic caldera. The Hakurei hydrothermal field lies in the intersection of the basaltic volcanism belt and the caldera wall fault, suggesting a mechanism that hot water generated by the heat of the volcanic activity has been spouting out through the caldera wall fault. The deposit apparently extends beyond the low magnetization zone, climbing up the caldera wall. This may indicate that hot water rising from the deep through the alteration zone is transported laterally when it comes near the seafloor along fissures and fractures in the caldera wall.

Description: [1]  Using multiple ScS reverberations we examine mantle reflectivity structure beneath northeast China and the northwest Pacific. We find several upper mantle discontinuities, including a melt layer with a mean thickness of 64 km atop the 410-km discontinuity, present on both sides of the subducting slab near the Nankai trench. The transition zone contains a split 520-km discontinuity in several paths, and tomographic images show stagnant slabs at this depth. We believe this may be slab-related based on experimental work (Saikia, A., Frost, D. J., Rubie, D. C., 2008. Splitting of the 520-kilometer seismic discontinuity and chemical heterogeneity in the mantle. Science 319 (5869), 1515–1518). A negative reflector is found in one path beneath the northeast China craton at a depth of 598 km. Mid-mantle reflectors are found in all of our paths and are present throughout a wide depth range (~750 – 1600 km).

Description: [1]  Three-dimensional P - and S -wave velocity (V P , V S ) models and high-resolution earthquake relocations are determined for the New Madrid Seismic Zone using double-difference local earthquake tomography. The data set consists of arrival times and differential times recorded by the Cooperative New Madrid Seismic Network (CNMSN) from 2000-2007 and the 1989-1992 Portable Array Network and Data Acquisition deployment. Waveform cross-correlation derived differential times for the CNMSN data are also incorporated. The velocity solutions are compatible with previous solutions centered on the active arms of seismicity and cover a broader area including mafic intrusions along the margin of the Reelfoot Rift. Major features include elevated V P and V S associated with the mafic plutons and reduced V P and V S along and southeast of the Axial fault (AF), a major arm of seismicity trending along the rift axis. Low V P extends to a depth of at least 20 km along the portion of the AF that extends south of the Missouri bootheel. A locally high V P /V S anomaly imaged along the central portion of the Reelfoot fault is spatially correlated with a significant change in fault trend and is interpreted as a region containing high pore pressure and/or water-filled microcracks.

Description: [1]  We present a catalog of InSAR constraints on deformation that occurred during earthquake sequences in southern Iran between 1992-2011, and explore the implications on the accommodation of large-scale continental convergence between Saudi Arabia and Eurasia within the Zagros Mountains. The Zagros Mountains, a salt-laden fold-and-thrust-belt involving ~10 km of sedimentary rocks overlying Precambrian basement rocks, have formed as a result of ongoing continental collision since 10-20 Ma that is currently occurring at a rate of ~3 cm/yr. We first demonstrate that there is a biased misfit in earthquake locations in global catalogs that likely results from neglect of 3D velocity structure. Previous work involving two M ~ 6 earthquakes with well-recorded aftershocks has shown that the deformation observed with InSAR may represent triggered slip on faults much shallower than the primary earthquake, which likely occurred within the basement rocks (〉10 km depth). We explore the hypothesis that most of the deformation observed with InSAR spanning earthquake sequences is also due to shallow, triggered slip above a deeper earthquake, effectively doubling the moment release for each event. We quantify the effects that this extra moment release would have on the discrepancy between seismically and geodetically constrained moment rates in the region, finding that even with the extra triggered fault slip, significant aseismic deformation during the interseismic period is necessary to fully explain the convergence between Eurasia and Saudi Arabia.

Description: [1]  The identification and evaluation of trigger mechanisms for volcano flank instabilities and/or collapse represent a key issue for risk assessment in densely populated volcanic areas, as well as in long distance settings, particularly in case of island or coastal volcanoes. Here, we address quantitatively the effects of external (seismic) and inner (magmatic) forcing on the stress-strain state associated to flank instabilities at Mt. Etna (Sicily, southern Italy) by means of a 2-D Finite-Difference-Method numerical modelling. Modelled seismic actions include strong near-field, strong far-field and low-magnitude near-field earthquakes. Magmatic actions consider the inner presssure changes induced by energetic lava fountains in the summit crater area, sub-vertical and oblique dyke ascent below the summit area. Model results are validated in light of available monitoring data and recent eruptive activity. Numerical results show that the main strain effects are produced by high-magnitude near-field earthquakes (expected return time of ~10 3  yrs), and by vertical uprise of a magma dyke below the volcano summit area. Maximum displacements in the order of tens of centimetres may involve the summit area, up to some 10 6  m 3 /m over some km laterally. Stress releases up to 10 7  Pa may affect a limited portion of the magmatic conduit, thus favouring major effusive flank eruptions. Major catastrophic events, such as volcano flank collapse, should not be expected by applying, either individually or combined, the aforementioned actions.

Description: [1]  Seismicity closely related to hydrological impacts has been observed in several locations worldwide; particularly in intraplate areas where tectonic stressing rates are small. The triggering mechanism is usually explained by a poroelastic response of the seismogenic crust to surface water flux, leading to pore pressure changes at depth. To explain the earthquake triggering in response of those small stress changes, however, the crust has to be near a critical state in which other transient processes might be significant. One of the prominent examples is the Mt. Hochstaufen in SW Germany, where seismicity is known to vary seasonally. A previous analysis showed that the seismicity in 2002 was highly correlated with model forecasts based on fluid diffusion and rate- and state-dependent frictional nucleation. Here we revisit this case by accounting additionally for poroelastic effects, as well as for thermoelastic and tidal stresses. We also test whether the model can explain the observations of the subsequent eight years between 2003 and 2010. Our analysis confirms that rainfall is the dominant driving force in this region. The model not only fits the year 2002 activity very well, but provides with the same parameters a reasonable fit to the subsequent period, with a probability gain of about 4 per event in comparison to a time-independent Poisson model.

Description: ABSTRACT [1]  The absolute magnitude of stress in the crust and the shear strength of faults are poorly known, yet fundamental quantities, in lithospheric dynamics. While stress magnitude cannot be measured directly, deviatoric stress state can be inferred indirectly from focal mechanism solutions collected before and after an earthquake. We extend a standard stress inversion for normalized stresses to invert for the 3D spatial distribution of absolute deviatoric stress and variation of fault strength with depth using focal mechanism solutions and coseismic stress changes produced by large earthquakes. We apply the method to the 2011 M9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake. The northern Japan forearc crust between 5 and 15 km depth appears to be weak with fault strength of 40–90 MPa, consistent with a coefficient of friction of 0.2-0.5. The M9 Tohoku-oki coseismic stress change was large enough, relative to the ambient stress, to rotate the principal stress directions typically ~20° in the upper 20 km of the crust. The data from Japan require a heterogeneous ambient deviatoric stress field with short wavelength (~20-50 km) fluctions in principal stress orientations.

Description: [1]  We review marine heat flow data along the Nankai Trough and show that observations 〉 30 km seaward of the deformation front are 20% below conductive predictions (129–94 mW m -2 ) but consistent with the global heat flow average for oceanic crust of the same age (16-28 Ma). Heat flow values  〈  30 km seaward of the deformation front are generally 20% higher than conductive predictions. This heat flow pattern is consistent with the advection of heat by fluid flow in the subducting oceanic crust and explains both the high heat flux in the vicinity of the trench, 〉 200 and 〉 140 mW m -2 , and steep landward declines to values of approximately 60 mW m -2 over distances of 65 and 50 km along the Muroto and Kumano transects, respectively. Along the Ashizuri transect the lack of heat flow data preclude a definitive interpretation. We conclude that fluid flow in the subducting oceanic crust leads to temperatures that are generally 25 ° C higher near the toe of the margin wedge and 50 - 100 ° C lower near the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone than estimated by purely conductive models.

Description: [1]  We investigate whether predictions of mantle structure from tectonic reconstructions are in agreement with a detailed tomographic image of seismic P-wave velocity structure under the Caribbean region. In the upper mantle, positive seismic anomalies are imaged under the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. These anomalies are interpreted as remnants of Atlantic lithosphere subduction and confirm tectonic reconstructions that suggest at least 1100 km of convergence at the Lesser Antilles island arc during the past ~45 Myr. The imaged Lesser-Antilles slab consists of a northern and southern anomaly, separated by a low velocity anomaly across most of the upper mantle, which we interpret as the subducted North America-South America plate boundary. The southern edge of the imaged Lesser Antilles slab agrees with vertical tearing of South America lithosphere. The northern Lesser Antilles slab is continuous with the Puerto Rico slab along the northeastern plate boundary. This results in an amphitheatre-shaped slab and it is interpreted as westward subducting North America lithosphere that remained attached to the surface along the northeastern boundary of the Caribbean plate. At the Muertos Trough, however, material is imaged until a depth of only 100 km, suggesting a small amount of subduction. The location and length of the imaged South Caribbean slab agrees with proposed subduction of Caribbean lithosphere under the northern South America plate. An anomaly related to proposed Oligocene subduction at the Nicaragua rise is absent in the tomographic model. Beneath Panama, a subduction window exists across the upper mantle, which is related to the cessation of subduction of the Nazca plate under Panama since 9.5 Ma and possibly the preceding subduction of the extinct Cocos-Nazca spreading center. In the lower mantle two large anomaly patterns are imaged. The westernmost anomaly agrees with the subduction of Farallon lithosphere. The second lower mantle anomaly is found east of the Farallon anomaly and is interpreted as a remnant of the late Mesozoic subduction of North and South America oceanic lithosphere at the Greater Antilles, Aves ridge and Leeward Antilles. The imaged mantle structure does not allow us to discriminate between an ‘Intra-Americas’ origin and a ‘Pacific origin’ of the Caribbean plate.

Description: [1]  We have measured interseismic deformation across the Ashkabad strike-slip fault using 13 Envisat interferograms covering a total effective timespan of ~30 years. Atmospheric contributions to phase delay are significant and variable due to the close proximity of the Caspian Sea. In order to retrieve the pattern of strain accumulation, we show it is necessary to use data from Envisat's Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) instrument, as well numerical weather model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), to correct interferograms for differences in water vapour and atmospheric pressure respectively. This has enabled us to robustly estimate the slip rate and locking depth for the Ashkabad fault using a simple elastic dislocation model. Our data are consistent with a slip rate of 5–12 mm/yr below a locking depth of 5.5–17 km for the Ashkabad fault, and synthetic tests support the magnitude of the uncertainties on these estimates. Our estimate of slip rate is 1.25–6 times higher than some previous geodetic estimates, with implications for both seismic hazard and regional tectonics, in particular supporting fast relative motion between the South Caspian Block and Eurasia. This result reinforces the importance of correcting for atmospheric contributions to interferometric phase for small strain measurements. We also attempt to validate a recent method for atmospheric correction based on ECMWF ERA-Interim model outputs alone and find that this technique does not work satisfactorily for this region when compared to the independent MERIS estimates.

Description: [1]  The seafloor within the Perth Abyssal Plain (PAP), offshore Western Australia, is the only section of crust that directly records the early spreading history between India and Australia during the Mesozoic breakup of Gondwana. However, this early spreading has been poorly constrained due to an absence of data, including marine magnetic anomalies and data constraining the crustal nature of key tectonic features. Here, we present new magnetic anomaly data from the PAP that shows that the crust in the western part of the basin was part of the Indian Plate – the conjugate flank to the oceanic crust immediately offshore the Perth margin, Australia. We identify a sequence of M2 and older anomalies in the west PAP within crust that initially moved with the Indian Plate, formed at intermediate half-spreading rates (35 mm/yr) consistent with the conjugate sequence on the Australian Plate. More speculatively, we reinterpret the youngest anomalies in the east PAP, finding that the M0-age crust initially formed on the Indian Plate was transferred to the Australian Plate by a westward jump or propagation of the spreading ridge shortly after M0 time. Samples dredged from the Gulden Draak and Batavia Knolls (at the western edge of the PAP) reveal that these bathymetric features are continental fragments rather than igneous plateaus related to Broken Ridge. These microcontinents rifted away from Australia with Greater India during initial breakup at ~130 Ma, then rifted from India following the cessation of spreading in the PAP (~101-103 Ma).

Description: [1]  We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posteriori probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic deformation solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods, shares the same posterior PDF with them, while overcoming difficulties with convergence when large numbers of low-quality data are used and greatly improving the convergence rate using optimization procedures. A highly-efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum of a posterior PDF (" mode " in statistics) in the first step. The second step inversion approaches the " true" solution further using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique with positivity constraints, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step using the same procedure of the second step, with fixed fault geometry parameters. [2]  We first design a fault model with 45°-dip angle and oblique slip, and produce corresponding synthetic InSAR datasets to validate the reliability and efficiency of the new method. We then apply this method to InSAR data inversion for the coseismic slip-distribution of the April 14, 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China earthquake. Our preferred slip model is composed of three segments with most of the slip occurring within 15 km depth and the maximum slip reaches 1.38 m at the surface. The seismic moment released is estimated to be 2.32e + 19 Nm, consistent with the seismic estimate of 2.50e + 19 Nm.

Description: [1]  We conducted total magnetic field and Bouguer gravity measurements to investigate the shallow structure beneath the summit caldera of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. Two significant and distinctive magnetic anomalies were identified within the caldera. One is interpreted to be associated with a long-lived pre-historic eruptive centre, the Observatory vent, located ~1 km east of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. The second magnetic anomaly corresponds to a set of eruptive fissures that strike northeast from Halema‘uma‘u Crater, suggesting this is an important transport pathway for magma. The Bouguer gravity data were inverted to produce 3D models of density contrasts in the upper 2 km beneath Kīlauea. The models detect 3.0 km 3 of material, denser than 2800 kg m -3 , beneath the caldera that may represent an intrusive complex centred northeast of Halema‘uma‘u. Recent temporal gravity studies indicate continual addition of mass beneath the caldera during 1975–2008 centred west of Halema‘uma‘u and suggest this is due to filling of void space. The growth of a large intrusive complex, apparent cyclical caldera formation, and continual mass addition without inflation, however, can also be explained by extensional rifting caused by the continual southward movement of Kīlauea's unstable south flank.

Description: [1]  The 2006-2007 doublet of M W  〉 8 earthquakes in the Kuril subduction zone caused postseismic transient motion in the asthenosphere, which we observed on the Kuril GPS Array in 2007–2011. Here we show that the Maxwell asthenospheric viscosity that best fits the geodetic data increased by nearly an order of magnitude over the interval of four years, from 2 × 10 17 to 1 × 10 18  Pa s. These effective values of viscosity can be explained by a power-law rheology for which strain rate is proportional to stress raised to a power n  〉 1. The apparent change in viscosity can also be caused by other factors such as coupling between afterslip and viscoelastic flow. The open and intriguing question in connection with postseismic data after the Kuril earthquake doublet is the magnitude of the long-term asthenospheric viscosity, which shall be revealed by continued observations. An asthenosphere with viscosity of about 1 × 10 19  Pa s is favored by the postseismic deformation still observed several decades after the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska M W ~9 earthquakes. However, postseismic deformation associated with the 1952 southern Kamchatka M W ~9 earthquake currently is not observed in the northern Kurils, an indication that the long-term asthenospheric viscosity in the Kurils is lower than in Chile and Alaska.

Description: [1]  The region of central Chile offers a unique opportunity to study the links between the subducting Juan Fernandez Ridge, the flat slab, the Double Seismic Zone (DSZ) and the absence of modern volcanism. Here, we report the presence and characteristics of the first observed DSZ within the intermediate-depth Nazca slab using two temporary seismic catalogues (OVA99 and CHARSME). The lower plane of seismicity (LP) is located 20–25 km below the upper plane (UP), begins at 50 km depth and merges with the lower plane at 120 km depth, where the slab becomes horizontal. Focal mechanism analysis and stress tensor calculations indicate that the slab's state of stress is dominantly controlled by plate convergence and overriding crust thickness: Above 60–70 km depth, the slab is in horizontal compression, and below, it is in horizontal extension, parallel to plate convergence, which can be accounted for by vertical loading of the overriding lithosphere. Focal mechanisms below 60–70 km depth are strongly correlated with offshore outer rise bend faults, suggesting the reactivation of pre-existing faults below this depth. The large interplane distances for all Nazca DSZs can be related to the slab's unusually cold thermal structure with respect to its age. Since LPs globally seem to mimic mantle mineral dehydration paths, we suggest that fluid migration and dehydration embrittlement provide the mechanism necessary to weaken the rock and that the stress field determines the direction of rupture.

Description: [1]  Among the different types of waves embedded in seismic noise, body waves present appealing properties but are still challenging to extract. Here we first validate recent improvements in numerical modeling of microseismic compressional ( P ) body waves and then show how this tool allows fast detection and location of their sources. We compute sources at ~ 0.2 Hz within typical P teleseismic distances (30-90 degrees) from the South California Seismic Network (SCSN) and analyze the most significant discrete sources. The locations and relative strengths of the computed sources are validated by the good agreement with beam-forming analysis. These ~75 noise sources exhibit a highly heterogeneous distribution, and cluster along the usual storm tracks in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. They are mostly induced in the open ocean, at or near water depths of 2800 and 5600 km, most likely within storms or where ocean waves propagating as swell meet another swell or wind sea. We then emphasize two particularly strong storms to describe how they generate noise sources in their wake. We also use these two specific noise bursts to illustrate the differences between microseismic body- and surface-waves in terms of source distribution and resulting recordable ground motion. The different patterns between body- and surface-waves result from distinctive amplification of ocean wave-induced pressure perturbation and different seismic attenuation. Our study demonstrates the potential of numerical modeling to provide fast and accurate constraints on where and when to expect microseismic body waves, with implications for seismic imaging and climate studies.

Description: [1]  Earthquakes that rupture across steps between faults can be larger than those predicted from individual fault lengths, making understanding multifault events critical to assessing earthquake hazard. Empirical data from earthquake surface ruptures suggest that the distances between faults that rupture together can range from 〈1 km to 5 km. Dynamic and quasi-static models of planar faults determine similar distances. However, studies of interactions between realistic, 3D non-planar faults are few. A general comparison of quasi-static stress perturbations and triggering potentials with mechanical models incorporating either planar or non-planar faults highlight the sensitivity of planar fault models to model parameters and reveal no clear relationship between mean fault slip and triggering potential. More specifically, planar fault models predict triggering across a 3 km extensional step, while models incorporating non-planar faults indicate that a connecting fault is necessary to transfer slip through a 3 km step along the 1992 Landers, California earthquake rupture. The mechanical approach taken captures the stress changes as well as the total stress following fault slip, improving the criterion used to determine triggered failure potential. This underscores the need for additional constraint on fault strength and cohesion. The focus on complex fault geometry restricts analyses to the quasi-static realm, limiting the application of results to fault interactions over the short distances and slow rupture velocities for which the quasi-static stress field is relevant or approximates the dynamic stress field.

Description: [1]  Batch and flow-through experiments were performed on quartz-feldspar granular aggregates and sandstone samples to investigate time-dependent effects of fluid-rock interactions on fluid and rock conductivity, respectively. The experiments were conducted at temperatures up to 164, at confining and pore pressures up to 10 and 5 MPa, respectively, and for up to 136 days. It showed that changes in rock conductivity were unequivocally related to changes in pore fluid conductivity. It is inferred that these changes were dependent on kinetically controlled dissolution reactions between the mineral grains and the fluid. The time-dependent signature of rock conductivity implied a detectable transition from initial dissolution towards some state of equilibrium. The response of rock conductivity to temperature changes followed an Arrhenius-type behavior. An exploratory kinetic evaluation of the conductivity data for sandstone samples yielded an apparent activation energy of approximately 32 kJ/mol. A concurrent chemical fluid analysis showed that this is an integrated value over all reactions occurring in parallel within a sample. These reactions namely concern silica and silicate dissolutionbut also the dissolution of accessory salt minerals. It is concluded that measuring the evolution of rock conductivity in combination with chemical pore fluid analysis constitutes a powerful and quantitative tool for monitoring time-dependent changesin pore fluid chemistry and thus fluid-rock interactions in real time.

Description: [1]  We describe a multi-parameter experiment at Erebus volcano, Antarctica, employing Doppler radar, video, acoustic, and seismic observations to estimate the detailed energy budget of large (up to 40-m-diameter) bubble bursts from a persistent phonolite lava lake. These explosions are readily studied from the crater rim at ranges of less than 500 m, and present an ideal opportunity to constrain the dynamics and mechanism of magmatic bubble bursts that can drive Strombolian and Hawaiian eruptions. We estimate the energy budget of the first second of a typical Erebus explosion as a function of time and energy type, and constrain gas pressures and forces using an analytic model for the expansion of a gas bubble above a conduit that incorporates conduit geometry and magma and gas parameters. The model, consistent with video and radar observations, invokes a spherical bulging surface with a base diameter equal to that of the lava lake. The model has no ad hoc free parameters, and geometrical calculations predict zenith height, velocity and acceleration during shell expansion. During explosions, the energy contained in hot over-pressured gas bubbles is freed and partitioned into other energy types, where by far the greatest non-thermal energy component is the kinetic and gravitational potential energy of the accelerated magma shell (〉10 9 J). Seismic source energy created by explosions is estimated from radar measurements and is consistent with source energy determined from seismic observations. For the generation of the infrasonic signal, a dual mechanism incorporating a terminally disrupted slug is proposed, which clarifies previous models and provides good fits to observed infrasonic pressures. A new and straightforward method is presented for determining gas volumes from slug explosions at volcanoes from remote infrasound recordings.

Description: [1]  We explore the application of GPS data to earthquake early warning and investigate whether the co-seismic ground deformation can be used to provide fast and reliable magnitude estimations and ground shaking predictions. We use an algorithm to extract the permanent static offset from GPS displacement time series and invert for the slip distribution on the fault plane, which is discretized into a small number of rectangular patches. We developed a completely “self-adapting” strategy in which the initial fault plane model is built based on a quick, approximate magnitude estimation, and is then allowed to increase in size based on the evolutionary magnitude estimation resulting from the slip inversion. Two main early warning outputs are delivered in real-time: magnitude and the along-strike extent of the rupture area. These are finally used to predict the expected ground shaking due to the finite source. We tested the proposed strategy by simulating real-time environments for three earthquakes. For the Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake our algorithm provides the first magnitude estimate of 8.2 at 39 sec after the origin time, and then gradually increases to 8.9 at 120 sec. The estimated rupture length remains constant from the outset at ~360 km. For the Mw 8.3, 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake the initial magnitude estimate is 8.5 at 24 sec and drops to 8.2 at 40 sec with a rupture length of 290 km. Finally, for the Mw 7.2, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake the magnitude estimate is 7.0 from the outset with a rupture length of 140 km. The accuracy of the ground shaking prediction using the GPS-based magnitude and finite extent is significantly better than existing seismology-based point source approaches. This approach would also facilitate more rapid tsunami warnings

Description: ABSTRACT [1]  Analysis of Lake Bonneville shorelines using LIDAR digital elevation data challenges accepted models of Wasatch fault deformation since the late Pleistocene. While footwall deformation of the Weber segment of the Wasatch fault is consistent with back-rotation of the footwall block and greatest displacement rate towards the center of the segment, shorelines along the footwall of the Salt Lake City segment decrease in elevation towards the interior and are highest at the segment boundaries, an opposite pattern of footwall deformation than predicted for boundaries arresting or strongly inhibiting displacement during earthquakes. The spatial pattern of footwall rebound implies that some of the proposed persistent fault segment boundaries do not stop earthquake ruptures that originate on adjacent fault segments, nor constrain ruptures initiated within the Salt Lake City segment. Net vertical fault displacement at the boundary between the Salt Lake and Provo segments is 16—20 m over the past 16.3—18.5 ka, corresponding to a vertical displacement rate of 0.8—1.2 mm/yr, a net fault slip rate of 2.0—2.8 mm/yr and horizontal extension rate of 1.8—2.6 mm/yr on the 25 o west-southwest dipping fault that forms the southern Salt Lake City segment boundary. Shoreline analysis suggests isostatic rebound caused by a drop in lake level was concentrated during a relatively short (~2000 yr) time period following the Bonneville flood at ~16 ka. LIDAR-derived topography in conjunction with robust geomorphic datums improves our ability to map deformation associated with lithospheric flexure and faulting while demonstrating the limitation of lacustrine shorelines in this type of analysis.

Description: [1]  We use recent results on statistical analysis of seismicity to present a robust method for comprehensive detection and analysis of earthquake clusters. The method is based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain. The method is applied to a 1981–2011 relocated seismicity catalog of southern California having 111,981 events with magnitudes m  ≥ 2, and corresponding synthetic catalogs produced by the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Analysis of the ETAS model demonstrates that the cluster detection results are accurate and stable with respect to (i) three numerical parameters of the method, (ii) variations of the minimal reported magnitude, (iii) catalog incompleteness, and (iv) location errors. Application of the method to the observed catalog separates the 111,981 examined earthquakes into 41,393 statistically significant clusters comprised of foreshocks , mainshocks and aftershocks . The results reproduce the essential known statistical properties of earthquake clusters, which provide overall support for the proposed technique. In addition, systematic analysis with our method allows us to detect several new features of seismicity that include (i) existence of a significant population of single-event clusters ; (ii) existence of foreshock activity in natural seismicity that exceeds expectation based on the ETAS model; and (iii) dependence of all cluster properties, except area, on the magnitude difference of events from mainshocks but not on their absolute values. The classification of detected clusters into several major types, generally corresponding to singles, burst-like and swarm-like sequences, and correlations between different cluster types and geographic locations is addressed in a companion paper.

Description: [1]  For the first time, we report the amplitude variation with angle (AVA) pattern of bottom simulating reflectors (BSRs) beneath fracture-filled gas hydrate deposits when the effective medium is anisotropic. The common depth point (CDP) gathers of two mutually perpendicular multi-channel seismic profiles, located in the vicinity of Site NGHP-01-10, are appropriately processed such that they are fit for AVA analysis. AVA analysis of the BSR shows normal-incidence reflection coefficients of -0.04 to -0.11 with positive gradients of 0.04 to 0.31 indicating class IV pattern. The acoustic properties from isotropic rock physics model predict class III AVA pattern which cannot explain the observed class IV AVA pattern in Krishna-Godavari basin due to the anisotropic nature of fracture-filled gas hydrate deposits. [2]  We modeled the observed class IV AVA of the BSR by assuming that the gas hydrate bearing sediment can be represented by horizontally transversely isotropic (HTI) medium after accounting for anisotropic wave propagation effects on BSR amplitudes. The effective medium properties are estimated using Backus averaging technique and the AVA pattern of BSRs is modeled using the properties of overlying HTI and underlying isotropy/HTI media with or without free gas. Anisotropic AVA analysis of the BSR from the inline seismic profile shows 5–30 % gas hydrate concentration (equivalent to fracture density) and the azimuth of fracture system (fracture orientation) with respect to the seismic profile is close to 45°. Free gas below the base of gas hydrate stability zone is interpreted in the vicinity of fault system (F1).

Description: [1]  Sequestration of large amounts of CO 2 within deep underground reservoirs has been proposed as a potential approach for reducing atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. A CO 2 sequestration project should address the associated environmental and safety issues and, in this respect, the importance of geomechanics has recently been widely recognized. Geomechanics is even more important when fluid injection is planned in faulted reservoirs. How much CO 2 can be safely injected into multi-compartment reservoirs? Are geomechanical constraints more restrictive than flow-dynamic constraints? These and other questions are addressed in the present study using a three-dimensional Finite Element - Interface Element geomechanical model. We simulate the possible mechanical failure in both the injected formation and the caprock, the fault/thrust reactivation, and the ground surface displacement in a faulted reservoir of the off-shore northern Italy, where seismic surveys provided an accurate characterization of the faulted geological structure. Based on reliable petrophysical/geomechanical properties from well-logs and pore overpressure as predicted by a fluid-dynamic model, the results show that the injection of 1 × 10 6  ton/a of CO 2 may be performed over a few years only. Thereafter part of the injected formation fails by shear stress. A number of parametric scenarios are investigated to address the major uncertainties on the geomechanical response to CO 2 injection. The modeling outcome suggests that shear failure and faults/thrusts reactivation can occur much before attaining the hydraulic fracturing pressure, hence representing two major constraints for a safe and permanent containment.

Description: [1]  We present numerical subduction models to investigate overriding plate deformation at subduction zones. All models show forearc shortening, resulting predominantly from shear stresses at the subduction zone interface and opposite-sense mantle shear stresses at the base of the forearc lithosphere. Models dominated by backarc extension show that it results from trench-normal positive velocity gradients in the mantle below the overriding plate. Such gradients result from toroidal mantle flow induced by slab rollback, with velocities below the leading part of the backarc faster than the overriding plate velocity. The velocity gradients induce basal shear stresses that increase trenchward and cause trenchward overriding plate motion at a velocity ( v OP⊥ ) whose spatial average is below the trench retreat velocity ( v T⊥ ). The combination of basal shear stresses and average v OP⊥ 〈 v T⊥ causes trench-normal deviatoric tension in the backarc and backarc extension. Models dominated by backarc shortening show that it results from a relatively immobile subduction hinge and trenchward overriding plate motion driven by poloidal mantle flow. The poloidal mantle flow is induced by downdip slab sinking and causes the average v OP⊥ 〉 v T⊥ . This results in trench-normal deviatoric compression and shortening in the leading part of the overriding plate as it collides with the subduction hinge. Ultimately, the geodynamic models demonstrate that backarc extension is favored for narrow slabs and near lateral slab edges, and is driven by rollback induced toroidal mantle flow, while backarc shortening is favored for the center of wide slabs, and is driven by poloidal mantle flow resulting from downdip slab motion.

Description: [1]  The Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (GSM), located near the center of East Antarctica, remain one of the most enigmatic mountain ranges on earth. A lack of direct geologic samples renders theirtectonic history almost totally unconstrained. We utilize teleseismic Rayleigh wave data from a two-year deployment of broadband seismic stations across the region to image shear velocity structure and analyze the lithospheric age of the GSM and surrounding regions. We solve for 2-D phase velocitiesand invert these results for 3-D shear velocity structure. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation to improve constraints of crustal thickness and shear velocity structure.Beneath the core of the GSM, we find crustal thickness in excess of 55 km.Mantle shear velocities remain faster than global average models to a depth of approximately 250 km, indicating a thick lithospheric root. Thinner crust and slower upper mantle velocities are observed beneath the Lambert Rift System and the Polar Subglacial Basin.When compared with phase velocity curves corresponding to specific tectonothermal ages elsewhere in the world, average phase velocity results for the GSM are consistent with regions of Archean – Paleoproterozoic origin. Combined with radiometric ages of detrital zircons found offshore, these results indicate a region of old crust that has undergone repeated periods of uplift and erosion, most recently during the Mesozoic breakup of Gondwana. Lower crustal seismic velocities imply a moderately dense lower crust beneath the core of the GSM, but with lower density than suggested by recent gravity models.

Description: [1]  This is a second paper in a study of statistical identification and classification of earthquake clusters using a relocated catalog of 1981–2011 seismicity in southern California and synthetic catalogs produced by the ETAS model. Here we focus on classification of event families – statistically significant clusters comprised of foreshocks , mainshocks and aftershocks – that are detected with the methodology discussed in part I of the study. The families are analyzed using their representation as time oriented tree graphs. The results (i) demonstrate that the clustering associated with the largest earthquakes, m  〉 7, is statistically different from that of small-to-medium earthquakes; (ii) establish the existence of two dominant types of small-to-medium magnitude earthquake families– burst-like and swarm-like sequences – and a variety of intermediate cluster forms obtained as a mixture of the two dominant types; (iii) suggest a simple new quantitative measure for identifying the cluster type based on its topological structure; (iv) demonstrate systematic spatial variability of the cluster characteristics on a scale of tens of kilometers in relation to heat flow and other properties governing the effective viscosity of a region; and (v) establish correlation between the family topological structure and a dozen of metric properties traditionally considered in the literature (number of aftershocks, duration, spatial properties, b -value, parameters of Omori-Utsu and Båth law, etc .). The burst-like clusters likely reflect highly-brittle failures in relatively cold regions, while the swarm-like clusters are likely associated with mixed brittle-ductile failures in regions with relatively high temperature and/or fluid content. The results of this and paper I may be used to develop improved region-specific hazard estimates and earthquake forecasts.

Description: [1]  Paleoseismologic data from the southern Panamint Valley fault (PVF) reveal evidence of at least four surface ruptures during late Holocene time (0.33-0.48 ka, 0.9-3.0 ka, 3.3-3.6 ka and 〉4.1 ka). These paleo-earthquake ages indicate that the southern PVF has ruptured at least once and possibly twice during the ongoing (≤1.5 ka) seismic cluster in the Mojave section of the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). The most recent event (MRE) on the PVF is also similar in age to the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake and the geomorphically youthful MRE on the Death Valley fault. The timing of the three oldest events at our site shows that the PVF ruptured at least once and possibly thrice during the well-defined 2-5 ka seismic lull in the Mojave section of the ECSZ. Interestingly, the 3.3-3.6 ka age of Event 3 overlaps with the 3.3-3.8 ka age of the penultimate (i.e., pre-1872) rupture on the central Owens Valley fault. These new PVF data support the notion that earthquake occurrence in the ECSZ may be spatially and temporally complex, with earthquake clusters occurring in different regions at different times. Coulomb Failure Function modeling of the Panamint Valley and Garlock faults reveals significant stress interactions between these two faults that may influence future earthquake occurrence. Specifically, our models suggest a possible rupture sequence whereby an event on the southern Panamint Valley fault can lead to the potential triggering of an event on the Garlock fault, which in turn could trigger the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault.

Description: [1]  The lithospheric structure of the Indian plate has been investigated using converted wave techniques (P and S receiver functions, RFs) and a novel stacking analysis technique (without using deconvolution) applied to a large seismological dataset from permanent and temporary broadband seismic stations. We observe coherent energy from at least two seismic discontinuities i.e. the crust-mantle (Moho) and lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) in the uppermost mantle. Here, we provide a novel seismic image of the Indian lithosphere showing definitive evidence of its flexure, which is interpreted to be primarily caused by the hard collision at ~55My resulting in the world's highest mountain chain - the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau. Results from geoidal and gravity studies do suggest post-collisional flexuring of the Indian plate; however, the flexure lacks observational constraints. The observed wavelength of the flex is ~1000 km with the thickness of the Indian plate varying from ~70 km to 140 km; such a low value for a continent implies that the Indian plate has been reworked in the past. The plate deepens in the Himalayan region to a depth of ~150 km. Further, the converted phases are interpreted to be resulting from the bottom of the lithosphere. We clearly demonstrate that these are distinct and different from the mid-lithospheric discontinuity. For a large number of stations, the MLD and LAB are clearly separated in depth. Our observations suggest that the Archaean lithosphere is no longer intact and is prone to deformation.

Description: [1]  Studying heat transfer processes in sedimentary crustal rocks requires the correct thermal conductivity of the respective rock type. Often a single value is used for a given rock type, obtained from the measurements on homogenous samples. We demonstrate how variations in rock layering and micro-fractures on the sub-centimeter scale may influence thermal conductivity values at much larger scale. We obtain thermal conductivity images from lab measurements on two different, heterogeneous samples performed with an optical thermal conductivity scanner in two directions. We study different spatial averaging methods for parameterizing the structural heterogeneities and the associated variation of thermal conductivity within the samples. For each of these structural simplifications we set up a numerical model for a numerical heat transfer experiment in order to determine effective thermal conductivity values in two directions. We compare these values and the mean thermal conductivities obtained from different mixing laws and find that, in heterogeneous rocks, effective and mean thermal conductivity may differ substantially. This may cause significant errors in reservoir-scale simulations of heat transfer with associated severe consequences for estimated heat flow and temperatures.

Description: [1]  We analyze teleseismic P-waves from four Mw ≥ 6.5 earthquakes recorded by a petroleum industry survey in Long Beach, California. The survey used a 2-D array with up to 5200 seismometers, 120 m mean spacing, and 7 – 10 km aperture. At frequencies near 1 Hz P-wave travel-times and amplitudes exhibit coherent lateral variations over scales as short as ~400 m, including locally delayed travel-times and increased amplitudes at the crest of the Long Beach anticline. Deeper heterogeneity is indicated by P-wave phase velocities that deviate from reference model predictions for events from southwestern azimuths. We postulate that a sharp northeastward increase in Moho depth from the Inner Borderland (IB) to mainland southern California causes the anomalous phase velocities. Elastic forward modeling finds the travel-times are fit well by a Moho that dips 65° to the northeast and flattens ~10 km southwest of the Newport-Inglewood fault zone. Constraining the felsic thickness of mainland crust to 28 km requires an 8 km thick layer with a P-velocity of 7 km/s beneath it, which could result from basal accretion of former Farallon ocean crust or magmatic underplating during Miocene volcanism. Forward models with a 65° Moho dip predict a P-to-s conversion with a phase velocity of ~5 km/s. Deconvolution of the array's mean P-wave signal isolates a similar later arriving phase. The steep crust thickness transition supports a locally abrupt boundary to IB rifting. Our results highlight the utility of dense short-period arrays for passive imaging at near surface to uppermost mantle depths.

Description: [1]  In this study we present new high-resolution, regional-scale, Vp and Vp/Vs models of the northern-central Apennines along with accurate 3D locations of a large set of local earthquakes. The main velocity anomalies are consistent with the surface geology in the shallow layers and present evidence for fluids stored within the basement at greater depths beneath the extensional belt. The Adria and Tyrrhenian mantle are defined by positive velocity anomalies below 30 km depth, while a low Vp, high Vp/Vs region in between indicates the existence of an hydrated wedge. The results yield new constraints on active processes in the Apennines and more generally envisage the evolution of a post-collisional belt. Velocity anomalies and earthquakes are consistent with a complex system of delamination and sinking of the Adria continental lithosphere, with the peeling of the crust identified by intermediate-depth seismicity. Change of seismicity and structural patterns along the belt indicates that this tectonic process is diachronous and that fluids, released by sunken lithosphere, are stored within the crust conditioning the occurrence of seismicity and the onset of extension.

Description: [1]  Diffuse degassing through the soil is commonly observed in volcanic areas and monitoring of carbon dioxide flux at the surface can provide a safe and effective way to infer the state of activity of the volcanic system. Continuous measurement stations are often installed on active volcanoes such as Furnas (Azores archipelago), which features low temperature fumaroles, hot and cold CO 2 rich springs, and several diffuse degassing areas. As in other volcanoes, fluxes measured at Furnas are often correlated with environmental variables, such as air temperature or barometric pressure, with daily and seasonal cycles that become more evident when gas emission is low. In this work, we study how changes in air temperature and barometric pressure may affect the gas emission through the soil. The TOUGH2 geothermal simulator was used to simulate the gas propagation through the soil as a function of fluctuating atmospheric conditions. Then, a dual parameters study was performed to assess how the rock permeability and the gas source properties affect the resulting fluxes. Numerical results are in good agreement with the observed data at Furnas, and show that atmospheric variables may cause the observed daily cycles in CO 2 fluxes. The observed changes depend on soil permeability and on the pressure driving the upward flux.

Description: [1]  Pressure solution plays an important role in compaction and lithification of sediments and fault gouges, but the effects of interfacial energy on this process are generally neglected. Here, microphysical models for densification of solid/liquid systems by pressure solution are derived, accounting for interfacial energy besides stress-related driving forces. They predict that densification by pressure solution creep will slow down at very fine grain sizes, where opposing interfacial energy driving forces become important compared to applied stress, and will come to a halt below a certain “yield” stress. To test the models, uniaxial compaction creep experiments were performed at ambient conditions on granular NaNO 3 aggregates ( d  = 8–250 μ m, σ eff  = 0.0062–4.9 MPa). Though no significant creep occurred in dry or oil-flooded material, rapid, grain-size sensitive creep occurred in the presence of saturated NaNO 3 solution. At high effective stresses ( σ eff  〉 0.025 MPa), wet-compacted, coarser-grained ( d  〉 20 μ m) samples showed compaction behavior roughly consistent with diffusion-controlled pressure solution involving negligible interfacial energy effects. Creep rates in this regime imply an effective grain boundary diffusivity product of 5.7 × 10 −19  m 3 /s. At low effective stress ( σ eff  〈 0.025 MPa), finer-grained samples ( d  〈 20 μ m) showed a decrease in strain rate with decreasing grain size, reflecting a growing influence of interfacial energy-related driving forces. This demonstrates a yield stress effect, broadly consistent with the predictions of the models incorporating interfacial energy and imply that compaction by pressure solution can be strongly inhibited in very fine-grained materials, such as nanogouge in seismogenic faults.

Description: [1]  The Fonualei Spreading Center affords an excellent opportunity to evaluate geochemical changes with increasing depth to the slab in the Lau back-arc basin. We present H 2 O and CO 2 concentrations and Sr, Nd, Pb, Hf and U-Th-Ra isotope data for selected glasses as well as new Hf isotope data from boninites and seamounts to the north of the Tonga arc. The Pb and Hf isotope data are used to show that mantle flow is oriented to the southwest and that the tear in the northern end of the slab may not extend east as far as the boninite locality. Along the Fonualei Spreading Center, key geochemical parameters change smoothly with increasing distance from the arc front and increasing slab surface temperatures. The latter may range from 720 to 866°C, based on decreasing H 2 O/Ce ratios. Consistent with experimental data, the geochemical trends are interpreted to reflect changes in the amount and composition of wet pelite melts or super-critical fluids and aqueous fluids derived from the slab. With one exception, all of the lavas preserve both 238 U excesses and 226 Ra excesses. We suggest that lavas from the Fonualei Spreading Center and Valu Fa Ridge are dominated by fluid-fluxed melting whereas those from the East and Central Lau Spreading Centers, where slab surface temperatures exceed ∼850–900°C, are largely derived through decompression. A similar observation is found for the Manus and East Scotia back-arc basins and may reflect the expiry of a key phase such as lawsonite in the subducted basaltic crust.

Description: [1]  Large submarine lava flows with thicknesses 〉100 m and volumes exceeding a few km 3 are not uncommon volcanic constructs of mid-ocean ridges and around Hawaii Islands, yet details of the physical processes of eruption of these large lava flows are poorly understood. The V3 unit of the Oman Ophiolite extruded onto pelagic sediment far off the paleospreading axis as thick lava flows with an areal extent of 〉11 km by 1.5 km and the maximum thickness 〉270 m, yielding an estimated volume 〉1.2 km 3 . The feeder dike for the V3 flow field has an unusual thickness up to 60 m, striking at a high angle to the paleospreading axis. The skewed variation in thickness suggests an intrusion at the apparent level of neutral buoyancy in off-axis crust. The thick sheet flows consist of massive core and columnar jointed crust. Finer-grained, finely jointed layers and lenses embedded in coarser-grained, roughly jointed lava show a complex cooling and growth history of the lava crust. In the periphery of the flow field, sheet flows lack developed core textures and change laterally into compound flows of pillow and subaqueous pahoehoe lobes, which are occasionally intermingled with pelagic shale. On the other hand, core lacks fine columnar joints and shows a typical doleritic texture. We conclude that the V3 flow field formed by extrusion of lava at low to moderate rates onto a subhorizontal seafloor covered with thick pelagic sediment, burying topographic relief 〉100 m of abyssal hills and fault grabens.

Description: [1]  While permeability scaling of fractured media has been so far studied independently at the fracture- and network- scales, we propose a numerical analysis of the combined effect of fracture-scale heterogeneities and the network-scale topology. The analysis is based on 2·10 6 discrete fracture network (DFNs) simulations performed with highly robust numerical methods. Fracture local apertures are distributed according to a truncated Gaussian law, and exhibit self-affine spatial correlations up to a cutoff scale L c . Network structures range widely over sparse and dense systems of short, long or widely distributed fracture sizes and display a large variety of fracture interconnections, flow bottlenecks and dead-ends. At the fracture scale, accounting for aperture heterogeneities leads to a reduction of the equivalent fracture transmissivity of up to a factor of 6 as compared to the parallel plate of identical mean aperture. At the network scale, a significant coupling is observed in most cases between flow heterogeneities at the fracture and at the network scale. The upscaling from the fracture to the network scale modifies the impact of fracture roughness on the measured permeability. This change can be quantified by the measure α 2, which is analogous to the more classical power-averaging exponent used with heterogeneous porous media, and whose magnitude results from the competition of two effects: (i) the permeability is enhanced by the highly transmissive zones within the fractures that can bridge fracture intersections within a fracture plane; (ii) it is reduced by the closed and low transmissive areas that break up connectivity and flow paths.

Description: [1]  We propose a novel method to constrain both timescales and assembly styles of intrusive bodies using the strain recorded by mafic enclaves, a common component of granitic rocks. Petrology, thermal modeling, and magma rheology are combined to investigate the evolution of strain recorded by enclaves during the piecemeal assembly of a pluton growing at various rates of magma input. The different compositions (and hence phase relations) of host magma and enclaves limits homogeneous deformation of these two materials to restricted temperature ranges, which we term “windows of mutual deformability.” Outside these windows only the less viscous host granite records any appreciable deformation and enclaves are mainly transported as rigid objects. The temporal and spatial development of the windows of mutual deformability reflects the emplacement rate of magmas into the pluton. Consequently, the radial distribution of strain recorded by enclaves can provide a picture of the thermal and rheological evolution of a magmatic body during its construction. Our approach is applied to deformation patterns of mafic enclaves in the Lago della Vacca Complex (LVC) of the Adamello Massif (Italy), to estimate the timescales of pluton emplacement. Our calculations suggest total emplacement timescales of the order 50 to 150 ky, in excellent agreement with recent high precision radiometric dating of zircons from the LVC.

Description: [1]  The Western Anatolian and Aegean region demonstrates a complex geologic history of horizontal and vertical tectonics. Active normal faulting and exhumation zones indicate that Western Anatolia has experienced significant extension since the Oligocene-Early Miocene (∼30 Ma). Our geophysical analyses demonstrate that the region is also uplifted relative to an elevation that would be expected given an isostatic response to the lithosphere structure. Namely, topography “residuals” indicate a residual uplift of about 1500 m over ∼200 km sections of Western Anatolia and the Aegean. Admittance functions between free-air gravity and topography indicate that the regional topography is isostatically uncompensated and as it approaches ∼50 mGal/km at the longest wavelengths, the uncompensated topography is likely owing to an underlying mantle flow component. Using forward geodynamic modelling we consider an idealized section of Western Anatolian lithosphere based on tomographic inversions and examine the magnitude and pattern of surface topography to reconcile with the geophysical observables. The models consistently show a plateau-type uplift (and horizontal extension) through Western Anatolia with an amplitude and wavelength consistent with the residual topography calculations. Together, the geophysical analyses and modelling provide independent quantitative evidence that the thin Anatolian-Aegean lithosphere is being buoyed upwards by underlying mantle flow. The mantle flow may be associated with active lithosphere delamination beneath the region; a process that would also explain the ongoing crustal extension.

Description: [1]  Authigenic 10 Be/ 9 Be ratios were measured along a sediment core collected in the west equatorial Pacific in order to reconstruct cosmogenic 10 Be production variations near the equator, where the geomagnetic modulation is maximum. From 60 to 20 ka, the single significant 10 Be production impulse recorded at 41 ka results from the geomagnetic dipole low that triggered the Laschamp excursion. No significant 10 Be overproduction signature is recorded at the age of the Mono Lake excursion (∼34 ka). A compilation of authigenic 10 Be/ 9 Be records obtained from sediments was averaged over a 1 kyr window and compared with the 1 kyr averaged 10 Be flux record of Greenland ice cores. Their remarkable similarity demonstrates that 10 Be production is globally modulated by geomagnetic dipole variations and redistributed by atmosphere dynamics. After calibration using absolute values of the virtual dipole moment drawn from paleomagnetic database, the authigenic 10 Be/ 9 Be stack allows reconstructing the geomagnetic dipole moment variations over the 20–50 ka time interval. Between 48 and 41 ka, the dipole moment collapsed at a rate of −1.5 × 10 22 A m 2 kyr −1 , which will be an interesting criterion for the assessment of the loss rate of the historical field and the comparison of dipole moment loss prior to excursions and reversals. After a 2 kyr duration of the minimum dipole moment (∼1 × 10 22 A m 2 ), a slow increase started at 39 ka, progressively reaching 5 × 10 22 A m 2 at 20 ka. The absence of a significant dipole moment drop at 34 ka, the age of the Mono lake excursion, suggests that the duration and amplitude of the dipole weakening cannot be compared with that of the Laschamp. This study provides a reliable basis to model the production of radiocarbon and in situ cosmogenic nuclides and to improve the calibration of these dating methods.

Description: [1]  We measure the displacement field resulting from the 1975–1984 Krafla rifting crisis, NE Iceland, using optical image correlation. Images are processed using the COSI-Corr software package. Surface extension is accommodated on normal faults and fissures which bound the rift zone, in response to dike injection at depth. Correlation of declassified KH-9 spy and SPOT5 satellite images reveals extension between 1977–2002 (2.5 m average opening over 80 km), while correlation of aerial photos between 1957–1990 provide measurements of the total extension (average 4.3 m opening over 80 km). Our results show ∼8 m of opening immediately north of Krafla caldera, decreasing to 3–4 m at the northern end of the rift. Correlation of aerial photos from 1957–1976 reveal a bi-modal pattern of opening along the rift during the early crisis, which may indicate either two different magma sources located at either end of the rift zone (a similar pattern of opening was observed in the 2005 Afar rift crisis in East Africa), or variations in rock strength along the rift. Our results provide new information on how past dike injection events accommodate long-term plate spreading, as well as providing more details on the Krafla rift crisis. This study also highlights the potential of optical image correlation using inexpensive declassified spy satellite and aerial photos to measure deformation of the Earth's surface going back many decades, thus providing a new tool for measuring Earth surface dynamics, e.g. glaciers, landsliding, coastal erosion, volcano monitoring and earthquake studies, when InSAR and GPS data are not available.

Description: [1]  Recently, dense and sensitive modern seismic networks have revealed tectonic and volcanic tremors. Although most studies of seismic tremors focused on these two types, other types of tremor activities also exist. To detect such tremor activities, we analyzed data from the Hi-net high-sensitivity accelerometers (tiltmeters) between June 2004 and June 2006. The results elucidate very low frequency (VLF) Love wave tremors with a typical frequency of 0.085 Hz beneath the Shonai Plain in northeastern Japan. The tremor activity lasted for several days and occurred several times per month in winter. The activity was triggered by secondary microseisms, which provide a proxy for local ocean swell activity. A possible source is a subhorizontal crack coupled with a fluid reservoir at the bottom of the sedimentary layer. All the observed features suggest that hydrologic phenomena are potential sources of VLF tremors. Because similar hydrologic phenomena can be expected even in tectonically and volcanically inactive regions, modern array observations by broadband seismometers may reveal similar hydrologic tremors in such regions.

Description: [1]  The propagation of the rupture of the M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake from the central Denali fault onto the Totschunda fault has provided a basis for dynamic models of fault branching in which the angle of the regional or local prestress relative to the orientation of the main fault and branch plays a principal role in determining which fault branch is taken. GeoEarthScope LiDAR and paleoseismic data allow us to map the structure of the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection and evaluate controls of fault branching from a geological perspective. LiDAR data reveal the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection is structurally simple with the two faults directly connected. At the branch point, 227.2 km east of the 2002 epicenter, the 2002 rupture diverges southeast to become the Totschunda fault. We use paleoseismic data to propose that differences in the accumulated strain on each fault segment, which express differences in the elapsed time since the most recent event, was one important control of the branching direction. We suggest that data on event history, slip rate, paleo offsets, fault geometry and structure, and connectivity, especially on high slip rate-short recurrence interval faults, can be used to assess the likelihood of branching and its direction. Analysis of the Denali-Totschunda fault intersection has implications for evaluating the potential for a rupture to propagate across other types of fault intersections and for characterizing sources of future large earthquakes.

Description: [1]  Recent three-dimensional (3-D) travel-time tomographic models of southwestern (SW) Japan image the subducting Philippine Sea plate (PHSP) and low velocity anomalies with long-wavelength spatial resolution. However, the agreement between the synthetics calculated with the existing 3-D model and data is not satisfactory for sP and S waves in the higher frequency range (≥0.2 Hz). The unsatisfactory agreement can be attributed to the parameters of the initial wave speed model for the tomographic inversion, as well as the difficulty in detecting S -wave travel times accurately. In order to improve the wave speed model, we first constructed a 3-D reference model by forward modeling using waveform data from an intraslab earthquake and then performed repeated travel-time inversions using the 3-D reference model as the initial model. The newly derived high-resolution model 3DM_SWJ can produce synthetics that are substantially in better agreement with the data than previous models. The distribution of high P -wave to S -wave speed ratios ( V P / V S ) calculated from model 3DM_SWJ shows short-wavelength heterogeneities that could have been formed in relation to the subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Eurasian plate. This combined use of forward waveform modeling for slab and crust configuration and repeated tomographic inversion of travel-times provides a better 3-D structural model of seismic properties for understanding tectonic features related to the subduction process, in addition to better estimating ground motions.

Description: [1]  Most magmatic systems on Earth are located at actively deforming plate boundaries. In these systems, the magmatic and plate boundary deformation signals are intertwined and must be deconvolved to properly estimate magma flux and source characteristics of the magma plumbing system. We investigate the inter-rifting and inter-seismic deformation signals at the Eastern Volcanic Zone (EVZ) – South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) ridge - transform intersection and estimate the location, depth, and volume rate for magmatic sources at Hekla and Torfajökull volcanoes, which are located at the intersection. We solve simultaneously for the source parameters of the tectonic and volcanic deformation signals using a new ten-year velocity field derived from a dense network of episodic and continuous GPS stations in south Iceland. We find the intersection of the axes of the EVZ and the SISZ is located within the Torfajökull caldera, which itself is subsiding. Deformation at Hekla is statistically best described in terms of a horizontal ellipsoidal magma chamber at 24 −2 +4 km depth aligned with the volcanic system and increasing in volume by 0.017 −0.002 +0.007 km 3 per year. A spherical magma chamber centered at 24 −2 +5 km depth with a volume rate of 0.019 −0.002 +0.011 km 3 per year, or a vertical pipe-shaped magma chamber between 10 −1 +3 km and 21 −4 +7 km with a volume rate of 0.008 −0.001 +0.003 km 3 per year are also plausible models explaining the deformation at Hekla. All three models indicate magma accumulation in the lower crust or near the Moho under Hekla.

Description: [1]  The subduction zone in southern Peru is imaged using converted phases from teleseismic P , PP , and PKP waves and P wave tomography using local and teleseismic events with a linear array of 50 broadband seismic stations spanning 300 km from the coast to near Lake Titicaca. The slab dips at 30° and can be observed to a depth of over 200 km. The Moho is seen as a continuous interface along the profile, and the crustal thickness in the back-arc region (the Altiplano) is 75 km thick, which is sufficient to isostatically support the Andes, as evidenced by the gravity. The shallow crust has zones of negative impedance at a depth of 20 km, which is likely the result of volcanism. At the midcrustal level of 40 km, there is a continuous structure with a positive impedance contrast, which we interpret as the western extent of the Brazilian Craton as it underthrusts to the west. V p / V s ratios estimated from receiver function stacks show average values for this region with a few areas of elevated V p / V s near the volcanic arc and at a few points in the Altiplano. The results support a model of crustal thickening in which the margin crust is underthrust by the Brazilian Shield.

Description: Predicting explosive eruptions remains an outstanding challenge. Knowledge of the controlling parameters and their relative importance is crucial in order to deepen our understanding of conduit flow dynamics and accurately model the processes involved. This experimental study sheds light on one important parameter, outgassing, and evaluates its influence on magma fragmentation behavior. We perform fragmentation experiments based on the shock tube theory at room temperature on natural pyroclastic material with a connected porosity ranging from 15% to 78%. For each sample series, we determine the initial pressure ( P ) required to initiate magma fragmentation (fragmentation threshold, P th ). Furthermore, we measure the permeability of each sample for P  〈  P th and the fragmentation speed for P  〉  P th . A significant loss of initial pressure, caused by outgassing in samples with permeability ≥1e-12 m 2 , is observed within the fragmentation time scale (a few milliseconds). The samples are classified into: (a) dome/conduit wall rocks and (b) pumice/scoria. Substantial outgassing during fragmentation leads to higher fragmentation thresholds. Experimental fragmentation speeds are significantly higher than the modeled fragmentation speeds for high-permeability dome/conduit wall rocks, but lower for high-permeability pumices. Experimental fragmentation speeds for low-permeability dome/conduit wall rocks and low-permeability pumice/scoria are as expected. We also find that low-porosity, low-permeability, altered dome/conduit wall rocks fragment at significantly higher speeds than expected. Because fragmentation threshold and fragmentation speed are among the determining parameters for the initiation, sustainment and cessation of an eruption, outgassing should be considered in the modeling of magma fragmentation dynamics.

Description: El Hierro eruption started on 10 October 2011 after an unrest episode that initiated on 17 July, 2011. This is the first eruption in the Canary Islands that has been tracked in real time. Although being submarine and not directly observable, the data recorded allowed its reconstruction and to identify its causes and mechanisms. Seismicity, surface deformation, and petrological data indicate that a batch of basanitic magma coming from a reservoir located at depth of about 25 km below El Hierro island was emplaced at shallower depth creating a new reservoir about 10–12 km above, where magma evolved till the initiation of the eruption. The characteristics of seismicity and surface deformation suggest that the necessary space to accumulate magma at this shallower position, which coincides with the crust/mantle boundary beneath El Hierro, was created in about two months by elastic deformation and magma-driven fracturing of the crust. After this first intrusion episode part of the magma started to migrate laterally toward the south-east for nearly 20 km, always keeping the same depth and following a path apparently controlled by stress barriers created by tectonic and rheological contrasts in the upper lithosphere. This lateral migration of magma ended with a submarine eruption at about 5 km offshore from the southern corner of El Hierro island. The total seismic energy released during the unrest episode was of 8.1x10 11 Joules, and the total uplift previous to the onset of the eruption was of 40 mm. Combining geological, geophysical, petrological data and numerical modeling, we propose a volcanological model of the causes and mechanisms of El Hierro eruption that shows how the stress distribution in the crust beneath El Hierro, which was influenced by rheological contrasts, tectonic stresses, and gravitational loading, controlled the movement and eruption of magma. We also discuss the implications of this model in terms of eruption forecast in the Canary Islands.

Description: [1]  The occurrence of three earthquakes with Mw greater than 8.8, and six earthquakes larger than Mw 8.5, since 2004, has raised interest in the long-term global rate of great earthquakes. Past studies have focused on analysis of earthquakes since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era in seismology. Prior to this time the catalog is less complete and magnitude estimates are more uncertain. Yet substantial information is available for earthquakes prior to 1900, and the catalog of historical events is being used increasingly to improve hazard assessment. Here I consider the catalog of historical earthquakes and show that approximately half of all Mw  ≥ 8.5 earthquakes are likely missing or underestimated in the 19th century. I further present a reconsideration of the felt effects of the 8 February 1843 Lesser Antilles earthquake, including a first thorough assessment of felt reports from the United States, and show it is an example of a known historical earthquake that was significantly larger than initially estimated. The results suggest that incorporation of best-available catalogs of historical earthquakes will likely lead to a significant underestimation of seismic hazard and/or the maximum possible magnitude in many regions, including parts of the Caribbean.

Description: ast Asia is one of the most tectonically active regions on Earth's surface due to the collision from the India plate and the suctions induced by the subduction of the Pacific and Philippine plates. To better understand the complicated deformation and active seismicity of the area, we conducted a Pn traveltime tomography to estimate the compressive wave speed of the uppermost mantle beneath the East Asia. We collected a total of 296,334 Pn arrivals recorded by 1,354 stations from 27,777 earthquakes in a rectangular area from 60°E to 145°E in longitude, 15°N to 60°N in latitude. The dataset was carefully integrated from three different catalogs after examining potential systematic biases in the catalogs. The inversion results revealed a large-scale velocity perturbation in the study area. Pn velocity in the region west to ~108°E is approximately 10% higher than that in the east. In each region, stable blocks tend to have high Pn velocity while the boundary regions, which show a high level of seismicity and surface deformation, appear to have low Pn velocity. We further computed the Benioff strain rate in the two regions and found it correlates negatively with the averaged Pn velocity. Our observations here suggest that Pn velocity, which is predominantly determined by Moho temperature, is a good indicator of lithosphere strength.

Description: We present fully dynamic generic three-dimensional laboratory models of progressive subduction with an overriding plate and a weak subduction zone interface. Overriding plate thickness ( T OP ) is varied systematically (in the range 0–2.5 cm scaling to 0–125 km) to investigate its effect on subduction kinematics and overriding plate deformation. The general pattern of subduction is the same for all models with slab draping on the 670 km discontinuity, comparable slab dip angles, trench retreat, trenchward subducting plate motion, and a concave trench curvature. The narrow slab models only show overriding plate extension. Subduction partitioning ( v SP⊥ /( v SP⊥ + v T⊥ )) increases with increasing T OP , where trenchward subducting plate motion ( v SP⊥ ) increases at the expense of trench retreat ( v T⊥ ). This results from an increase in trench suction force with increasing T OP , which retards trench retreat. An increase in T OP also corresponds to a decrease in overriding plate extension and curvature, because a thicker overriding plate provides more resistance to deform. Overriding plate extension is maximum at a scaled distance of ~200–400 km from the trench, not at the trench, suggesting that basal shear tractions resulting from mantle flow below the overriding plate primarily drive extension rather than deviatoric tensional normal stresses at the subduction zone interface. The force that drives overriding plate extension is 5–11% of the slab negative buoyancy force. The models show a positive correlation between v T⊥ and overriding plate extension rate, in agreement with observations. The results suggest that slab rollback and associated toroidal mantle flow drive overriding plate extension and backarc basin formation.

Description: [1]  Near-surface heterogeneities produce diffractions in common offset ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data from the Gnangara Groundwater Mound, north of Perth, Western Australia. These diffracted wavefields can be enhanced and show a dispersion pattern if they propagate along a waveguide caused by a low velocity surface layer, such as moist sand on top of dry sand. Until now, GPR waveguide dispersion has been analyzed and inverted using common midpoint data. Using numerical modeling, we demonstrate that the same dispersion information can also be recovered from a diffracted electromagnetic wavefield recorded with common offset geometry. Frequency-slowness analysis of shallow diffractions in common offset GPR field data reveals high resolution dispersion curves. Inverting picked dispersion maxima to modeled curves (i.e., modal wave propagation in waveguide layer) allows estimation of waveguide height and velocities of waveguide and the underlying material. Data analysis in the frequency-wavenumber domain provides an alternative technique for extracting dispersion curves. Preliminary results validate this approach, which could be favorable in large-scale applications due to minimal processing requirement and inherent yet adjustable spatial averaging. The differences between waveguide parameters recovered from two surveys appear to be consistent with seasonal changes in moisture content and lateral changes due to variations in depositional environment. Our approach presents a new method to quantify the shallow dielectric permittivity structure of the subsurface from common offset gathers—the most commonly acquired type of GPR data. Potential applications of this method include estimation of shallow moisture distribution, early target identification for unexploded ordnance (UXO) detection, concrete slab characterization, pedological investigations, or planetary exploration.

Description: [1]  The West Bohemia/Vogtland area is known for its increased geodynamic activity with reoccurrence of intraplate earthquake swarms. Previous geophysical studies, namely active and passive seismic investigations, revealed a high velocity lower crust in this area with increased reflectivity. To refine this result and retrieve a more detailed structure of the deep crust and the Moho discontinuity, we analyzed waveforms of local microearthquakes that occurred in this area during the 2008 swarm. The waveforms of earthquakes were grouped into clusters with similar focal mechanisms, and the clusters were processed separately. We developed a new multiazimuthal approach in data processing to increase resolution of Moho phases in the waveforms. We applied the waveform cross-correlation of the P and S waves, and rotated, aligned, and stacked the seismograms to extract the Moho SmS , PmP , and PmS reflected/converted phases. These phases were inverted for laterally varying Moho depth by ray tracing and a grid search inversion algorithm. The model retrieved was verified using modeling of full waveforms computed by the discrete wave number method. The multiazimuthal approach reveals details in the velocity structure of the crust/mantle transition at each station. Instead of a single interface with a sharp velocity contrast, the inversion indicates a reflective zone at Moho depths with one or two strongly reflective interfaces, which is in agreement with the zone interpreted by previous investigations. The thickness of the zone varies from 2 to 4 km within the depth range of 27–31.5 km and is delimited by reflections from its top and bottom boundaries, sometimes with strong reflectors within the zone. The average V p / V s ratio determined from the Moho reflections and conversions is 1.73.

Description: [1]  Numerical weather models developed by the meteorological community are able to provide accurate analyses of the current state of the atmosphere in addition to predictions of the future state. To date, most attempts to apply numerical weather models to estimate the refractivity of the atmosphere at the time of satellite synthetic aperture radar data acquisitions have relied on predictive models. We test the hypothesis that performing a final assimilative routine, ingesting all available meteorological observations for the times of SAR acquisitions, and generating customized analyses of the atmosphere at those times will better mitigate atmospheric artifacts in differential interferograms. We find that, for our study area around Mount St Helens volcano, Washington, USA, this approach is unable to model the refractive changes and provides no mean benefit for interferogram analysis. Performance is improved slightly by ingesting atmospheric delay estimates derived from the limited local GPS network; however, the addition of water vapor products from the GOES satellites reduces the quality of the corrections. We interpret our results to indicate that, even with this advanced approach, numerical weather models are not a reliable mitigation technique for regions like Mount St. Helens with highly variable moisture fields and complex topography and atmospheric dynamics. It is possible, however, that the addition of more spatially dense meteorological data to constrain the analyses might significantly improve the performance of weather modeling of atmospheric artifacts in satellite radar interferograms.

Description: [1]  Repeated short-term deployments of seismic, infrasound, video, and gas-emission instruments at Fuego volcano, Guatemala have revealed three types of very-long-period (VLP) events associated with conduit sealing, pressure accumulation, and release. In 2008, ash-rich explosions issued from a vent on the western flank and produced one type of VLP (Type 1). Impulsive, bomb-rich explosions from the summit vent in 2009 produced a shorter period VLP (Type 2), but also generated ash release. Type 3 VLP events occurred during ash-free exhalations from the summit in 2008 and had waveform shapes similar to Type 2 events. Weak infrasound records for Type 1 explosions compared to Type 2 suggest lower pressures and higher magma porosity for Type 1. Type 3 events correlate with spikes in SO 2 emission rate and are driven by partial sealing and rapid release of ash-free gas at the summit vent. Variations in the VLP period may provide a new tool for monitoring conditions within the conduit.

Description: [1]  A suite of true triaxial tests were performed on Castlegate sandstone, to assess the influence of the intermediate principal stress on mechanical response and failure. Five independent deviatoric stress states were employed, for which the intermediate principal stress ranged from equal to minimum compression (axisymmetric compression) to maximum compression (axisymmetric extension). For each deviatoric stress state, five constant mean stress tests were conducted, covering mean stresses ranging from brittle to ductile failure. At low mean stresses, shear bands formed and the peak stress required to induce failure decreased with increasing intermediate principal stress. Thus, failure at low mean stresses depends on the third invariant of deviatoric stress. Shear bands formed under all deviatoric stress states and over a wide range of mean stresses. The band angle (defined as the angle between the band normal and the direction of maximum compression) decreased with increasing mean stress. There was no clear trend in band angle with respect to intermediate principal stress; however, a small trend would be obscured by data scatter due to specimen variability. At higher mean stresses, no localization was observed. The upper bound mean stress at which shear localization occurred increased with increasing intermediate principal stress. Therefore, the mean stress that demarcates the brittle – ductile transition depends on the third invariant of deviatoric stress.

Description: [1]  A subset of the single-crystal elastic moduli of natural antigorite has been measured using Brillouin scattering at high-pressure up to 9 GPa. Aggregate properties and axial compressibilities are in good agreement with equation-of-state results from X-ray diffraction. Stiffness along the c -axis increases, becoming close to those within the silicate layer near 7 GPa. A slight discontinuity in the evolution of the elastic moduli near 7 GPa is associated with a phase transition. Raman spectroscopy shows the transition does not occur in subducting slabs, except in the core of the coldest slabs where serpentine may be subducted to depths of about 200 km. Varying temperature and pressure has limited effects on the interpretation of seismic velocities, principally because of the limited depth range of serpentine stability (mostly above 100 km depth), and also due to the compensating effects of pressure and temperature that maintain velocity variations well within the uncertainties and statistical variability of seismological studies. Serpentinites are excellent candidates for explaining low velocities in the hydrated mantle wedge, inversion of the Moho, and thin anisotropic low-velocity layers at the plate interface. Serpentinite layers provide an alternative explanation to fluid-saturated oceanic crust for explaining these phenomena, and account for a transition to an aseismic, decoupled plate interface.

Description: [1]  Traditional inversion techniques applied to the problem of characterizing the thermal and compositional structure of the upper mantle are not well suited to deal with the nonlinearity of the problem, the trade-off between temperature and compositional effects on wave velocities, the non-uniqueness of the compositional space, and the dissimilar sensitivities of physical parameters to temperature and composition. Probabilistic inversions, on the other hand, offer a powerful formalism to cope with all these difficulties, while at the same time allowing for an adequate treatment of the intrinsic uncertainties associated with both data and physical theories. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the two most important elements controlling the outputs of probabilistic (Bayesian) inversions for temperature and composition of the Earth's mantle, namely the a priori information on model parameters, ρ ( m ), and the likelihood function, L(m) . The former is mainly controlled by our current understanding of lithosphere and mantle composition, while the latter conveys information on the observed data, their uncertainties, and the physical theories used to relate model parameters to observed data. [2]  The benefits of combining specific geophysical datasets (Rayleigh and Love dispersion curves, body-wave tomography, magnetotelluric, geothermal, petrological, gravity, elevation, and geoid), and their effects on L ( m ), are demonstrated by analyzing their individual and combined sensitivities to composition and temperature as well as their observational uncertainties. The dependence of bulk density, electrical conductivity, and seismic velocities to major-element composition is systematically explored using Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the dominant source of uncertainty in the identification of compositional anomalies within the lithosphere is the intrinsic non-uniqueness in compositional space. A general strategy for defining ρ ( m ) is proposed based on statistical analyses of a large database of natural mantle samples collected from different tectonic settings (xenoliths, abyssal peridotites, ophiolite samples, etc). This strategy relaxes more typical and restrictive assumptions such as the use of local/limited xenolith data or compositional regionalizations based on age-composition relations. We demonstrate that the combination of our ρ ( m ) with a L ( m ) that exploits the differential sensitivities of specific geophysical observables, provides a general and robust inference platform to address the thermochemical structure of the lithosphere and sublithospheric upper mantle. An accompanying paper deals with the integration of these two functions into a general 3D multi-observable Bayesian inversion method and its computational implementation.

Description: [1]  Computation of displacements from strong motion inertial sensors is to date an open problem. Two distinct methodologies have been proposed to solve it. One involves baseline corrections determined from the inertial data themselves and the other a combination with other geophysical sensors such as GPS. Here we analyze a proposed automated baseline correction algorithm using only accelerometer data and compare it to the results from the real-time combination of strong motion and GPS data. The analysis is performed on 48 collocated GPS and accelerometersin Japan that recorded the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We study the time and frequency domain behavior of both methodologies. We find that the error incurred from automated baseline corrections that rely on seismic data alone is complex and can be large in both the time and frequency domains of interest in seismological and engineering applications. The GPS/accelerometer combination has no such problems and can adequately recover broadband strong motion displacements for this event. The problems and ambiguities with baseline corrections and the success of the GPS/accelerometer combination lead us to advocate for instrument collocations as opposed to automated baseline correction algorithms for accelerometers.

Description: [1]  We use 3D Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations to model the evolution of boudin structures in a layered material under non-plane strain conditions. As the models are shortened perpendicular to the layer orientation they are extended at different rates in the two layer-parallel directions. The particular emphasis of the study is on the orientation of fractures between the boudin blocks. The results show that the fracture orientation distribution is closely connected to the ratio of the two layer parallel extension rates. The anisotropy of the fracture orientation distribution increases systematically from no anisotropy at isotropic layer-parallel extension to a highly anisotropic distribution in case of uni-axial extension. We also observe an evolution of the anisotropy of fracture orientation distribution with increasing deformation in each individual model from a high initial anisotropy towards a value characteristic for the ratio of the layer-parallel extension rates. The observations aboutthe relation between the strain ratios and the fracture patterns do have the potential to serve as the basis for a new method to analyze strains in naturally boudinaged rocks.

Description: [1]  We use borehole strain and seismic data to show that slow slip and tremor in central Cascadia are correlated on a range of timescales shorter than one day. The recorded strain rate is our proxy for the slow slip moment rate, and the seismic amplitude is our proxy for the tremor amplitude. We find that, on average, the strain rate is higher when the seismic amplitude is larger. This correlation persists on timescales between 15 minutes and 16 hours, and it can be seen in each of the five slow slip events between 2007 and 2011. Our results imply that the slow slip moment rate varies by a large amount even at these short timescales. For instance, we observe a factor of 2 variation on timescales shorter than 4 hours. This apparently aperiodic variation is larger than the previously observed variation in moment rate resulting from tidal forcing. It is a lower bound on the actual moment rate variation, as we detect only changes in slow slip that are correlated with tremor amplitude.

Description: [1]  Here we present a 3D multi-observable probabilistic inversion method, particularly designed for high-resolution (regional) thermal and compositional mapping of the lithosphere and sublithospheric upper mantle that circumvents the problems associated with traditional inversion methods. The key aspects of the method are: a) it exploits the increasing amount and quality of geophysical datasets, b) it combines multiple geophysical observables (Rayleigh and Love dispersion curves, body-wave tomography,magnetotelluric, geothermal, petrological, gravity, elevation, and geoid) with different sensitivities to deep/shallow, thermal/compositional anomalies into a single thermodynamic-geophysical framework, c) it uses a general probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation to appraise the data, d) no initial model is needed, e) compositional a priori information relies on robust statistical analyses of a large database of natural mantle samples, and f) it provides a natural platform to estimate realistic uncertainties. In addition, the modular nature of the method/algorithm allows for incorporating or isolating specific forward operators according to available data. The strengths and limitations of the method are thoroughly explored withsynthetic models. It is shown that the a posteriori probability density function (i.e. solution to the inverse problem) satisfactorily captures spatial variations in bulk composition and temperature with high resolution, as wellas sharp discontinuities in these fields. Our results indicate that only temperature anomalies of ΔT  ≳ 150 °C and large compositional anomalies of Δ Mg# 〉 3 (or bulk ΔAl 2 O 3  〉 1.5) can be expected to be resolved simultaneously when combining high-quality geophysical data. This resolving power is sufficient to explore some long-standing problems regarding the nature and evolution of the lithosphere (e.g. vertical stratification of cratonic mantle, compositional vs temperature signatures in seismic velocities, etc) and offers new opportunities for joint studies of the structure of the upper mantle with unprecedented resolution.

Description: [1]  It has been posited that the 1975 – 1984 Krafla rifting episode in northern Iceland was responsible for a significant drop in the rate of earthquakes along the Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF), a transform fault that had previously been the source of several magnitude 6 – 7 earthquakes. This compelling case of the existence of a stress shadow has never been studied in detail, and the implications of such a stress shadow remain an open question. According to rate-state models, intense stress shadows cause tens of years of low seismicity rate followed by a faster recovery phase of rate increase. Here, we compare the long-term predictions from a Coulomb stress model of the rifting episode with seismological observations from the SIL catalogue (1995–2011) in northern Iceland. In the analyzed time-frame we find that the rift-induced stress shadow coincides with the eastern half of the fault where the observed seismicity rates are found to be significantly lower than expected, given the historical earthquake activity there. We also find that the seismicity rates on the central part of the HFF increased significantly in the last 17 years, with the seismicity progressively recovering from west to east. Our observations confirm that rate-state theory successfully describes the long-term seismic rate variation during the reloading phase of a fault invested by a negative Coulomb stress. Coincident with this recovery, we find that the b-value of the frequency-magnitude distribution changed significantly over time. We conclude that the rift-induced stress shadow not only decreased the seismic rate on the eastern part of the HFF but also temporarily modified how the system releases seismic energy, with more large magnitude events in proportion to small ones. This behavior is currently being overturned, as rift-induced locking is now being compensated by tectonic forcing.

Description: [1]  A method for 2.5D viscoacoustic waveform tomography that can be applied to generate 2D models of velocity and attenuation from inversion of refraction waveforms on land seismic reflection data acquired along crooked roads is developed. It is particularly useful for typical crustal reflection surveys. First-arrival traveltime tomography is applied using a 3D method, but with constraints on the intermediate 3D velocity model; the result is the starting model for the next step. A 2.5D frequency-domain full-waveform inversion stage parameterizes 3D geometry in the seismic source and receiver arrays, with the assumption that the velocity and attenuation models are homogeneous in the out-of-plane direction. This approach results in superior results compared to a strictly 2D approach when the acquisition line is crooked, with a moderate increase in computational cost. A case study using data acquired in the Nechako Basin in south-central British Columbia, Canada exemplifies and validates the procedure. The velocity model derived from 2.5D waveform tomography is compared with that from a previous study in which 2D waveform tomography was applied to the same dataset and with results from 3D traveltime tomography. The resolution and accuracy of the velocity model from 2.5D waveform tomography are demonstrated to be greater than those from traveltime or 2D waveform tomography. A model of viscoacoustic attenuation, which was not possible in the 2D case, is also generated. These models are interpreted jointly to highlight features of geological interest, such as a sedimentary basin, basement rocks and faults, from surface to about 3 km depth.

Description: [1]  We develop a framework for a variational analysis of microstrutural evolution during inelastic high-temperature deformation accommodated by dislocation mechanisms and diffusive mass transport. A polycrystalline aggregate is represented by a distributionfunction characterizing the state of individual grains by three variables, dislocation density, grain size, and elastic strain. The aggregate's free energy comprises elastic energy and energies of lattice distortions due to dislocations and grain boundaries. The work performed by the external loading is consumed by changes in the number of defects and their migration leading to inelastic deformation. The variational approach minimizes the rate of change of free energy with the evolution of the state variables under constraints on the aggregate volume, on a relation between changes in plastic strain and dislocation density, and on the form of the dissipation functionals for defect processes. The constrained minimization results in four basic evolution equations, one each for the evolution in grain size and dislocation density and flow laws for dislocation and diffusion creep. Analytical steady-state scaling relations between stress and dislocation density and grain size (piezometers) are derived for quasi-homogeneous materials characterized by a unique relation between grain size and dislocation density. Our model matches all currently available experimental observations regarding high-temperature deformation of olivine aggregates with plausible values for the involved micromechanical model parameters. The relation between strain rate and stress for olivine aggregates maintaining a steady-state microstructure is distinctly non-linear in stark contrast to the majority ofgeodynamical modeling relying on linear relations, i.e., Newtonian behavior.

Description: [1]  The cooling of a lava flow, both in the transient and the steady state, is investigated considering that lava rheology is pseudoplastic and dependent on temperature. Lava exits from the vent with constant velocity and flows down a slope under the effect of gravity force inside a channel of rectangular cross section. We consider that cooling of lava is caused by thermal radiation into the atmosphere and thermal conduction at the channel walls and at the ground. The heat equation is solved numerically in a 3D computational domain and the solution is tested to evaluate the numerical errors. We study the steady state and the initial transient period of lava cooling. Results indicate that the advective heat transport significantly modifies the cooling rate of lava slowing down the cooling process. Since the lava velocity depends on temperature, the cooling rate depends on the effusion temperature. Velocity profiles are modified during cooling showing two marginal static zones where the crust can form and remain stable. The fraction of crust coverage is calculated under the assumption that the solid lava is a plastic body with temperature dependent yield strength. We numerically confirm that heat advection can not be neglected in the mechanism of formation of lava tubes.

Description: [1]  [7] finds three differences of the seismicity clustering in southern California compared to self-similar triggering models: (i) a significantly lower b -value for the aftershocks; (ii) a too large aftershock number, and (iii) a too large foreshock-aftershock ratio to be consistent with the Båth law. Based on these observations, the author concluded that the observed seismicity is not in agreement with self-similarity triggering and/or the observed clustering is not primarily caused by earthquake-to-earthquake triggering. However, I show that the observed lower b -value is likely related to incomplete recordings after mainshocks and that the apparently too large aftershock number does not disprove the self-similarity. Thus only the enhanced foreshock-to-aftershock ratio seems to indicate some discrepancy to self-similar triggering.

Description: [1]  We examine tidal modulation and back-propagating fronts in simulated slow slip events using a rate and state friction law that is steady state velocity-weakening at low slip rates and velocity-strengthening at high slip rates. Tidal forcing causes a quasi-sinusoidal modulation of the slip rate during the events, with the maximum moment rate occurring close to or slightly after the maximum applied stress. The amplitude of modulation scales linearly with the tidal load and increases as the tidal period increases relative to the timescale for state evolution. If we choose parameters so that the model matches the observed tidal modulation of slip in Cascadia, it can reproduce only a subset of the stress drops inferred from observations, and only in a limited portion of parameter space. The tidal forcing also causes back-propagating fronts to form and move back through the region that has already ruptured. The stress drop that drives these back-propagating fronts sometimes comes from the tidal load and sometimes from a stress recovery that occurs behind the front in tidal and non-tidal simulations. We investigate the slip and propagation rates in the back-propagating fronts and compare them with observations. The modeled fronts propagate too slowly to be good representations of the fronts inferred from tremor observations. For the simulated fronts to propagate at the observed speeds, the stress drops driving them would have to be more than 70% of the stress drop driving the forward-propagating front.

Description: [1]  We present new seismicity images based on a two-year seismic deployment in the Pamir and SW Tien Shan. 9,532 earthquakes were detected, located and rigorously assessed in a multistage automatic procedure utilizing state-of-the-art picking algorithms, waveform cross-correlation and multi-event relocation. The obtained catalog provides new information on crustal seismicity and reveals the geometry and internal structure of the Pamir-Hindu Kush intermediate-depth seismic zone with improved detail and resolution. The relocated seismicity clearly defines at least two distinct planes, one beneath the Pamir, the other beneath the Hindu Kush, separated by a gap across which strike and dip directions change abruptly. The Pamir seismic zone forms a thin (ca.10 km width), curviplanar arc that strikes east–west and dips south at its eastern end, then progressively turns by 90 degrees to reach a north–south strike and a due eastward dip at its southwestern termination. Pamir deep seismicity outlines several streaks at depths between 70 and 240 km, with the deepest events occurring at its southwestern end. Intermediate-depth earthquakes are clearly separated from shallow crustal seismicity, which is confined to the uppermost 20–25 km. The Hindu Kush seismic zone extends from 40 to 250 km depth and generally strikes east–west, yet bends northeast, towards the Pamir, at its eastern end. It may be divided vertically into an upper and lower part separated by a gap at approx. 150 km depth. In the upper part, events form a plane that is 15–25 km thick in cross-section and dips sub-vertically north to northwest. Seismic activity is more virile in the lower part, where several distinct clusters form a complex pattern of sub-parallel planes. The observed geometry could be reconciled either with a model of two-sided subduction of Eurasian and previously underthrusted Indian continental lithosphere or by a purely Eurasian origin of both Pamir and Hindu Kush seismic zones, which necessitatesa contortion and oversteepening of the latter.

Description: [1]  New high-precision single grain U-Pb zircon geochronology and whole rock Nd isotopic data provide insight into the magmatic and tectonic development of the Samail ophiolite. The analyzed rocks come from the Wadi Tayin, Samail, Rustaq, Haylayn and Fizh massifs and can be broadly divided into two groups based on their structural position, dates and isotopic composition: an older group related to on-axis magmatism and a younger group of post-ridge dikes, sills and stocks.On-axis gabbros, tonalites and trondhjemites have Th-corrected single grain zircon and zircon fragment 206 Pb/ 238 U dates from 96.441 ± 0.062 to 95.478 ± 0.056 Ma. A single gabbro has a whole rock ε Nd (96 Ma) = 8.83 ± 0.20, consistent with other ridge related gabbro, sheeted dikes and lavas in the ophiolite. The variations in dates for the on-axis gabbros are consistent with structural evidence for ridge propagation during formation of the ophiolite crust.The post-ridge intrusions include dikes, sills and stocks from all depths in the crust, the upper mantle and the metamorphic sole. Post-ridge gabbros, tonalites and trondhjemites from the crust and mantle yielded Th-corrected 206 Pb/ 238 U dates of 95.405 ± 0.062 to 95.077 ± 0.062 Ma. A small trondhjemitic pod from the metamorphic sole, interpreted as a partial melt, yielded younger Th-corrected 206 Pb/ 238 U dates of 94.90 ± 0.38 to 94.69 ± 0.12 Ma. Isotopic data suggest two distinct sources for the post-ridge magmas: Five of the gabbros and tonalites from the crust have ε Nd (96 Ma) = 6.90 ± 0.12 to 7.88 ± 0.16, and two trondhjemites from the upper mantle and metamorphic sole have ε Nd (96 Ma) = -7.77 ± 0.08 and -7.01 ± 0.16.The negative ε Nd (t) and U-Pb dates from the post-ridge dike that intrudes the mantle section require that subduction or thrusting was established below the ophiolite ≤0.25–0.5 Ma after formation of the crust. The bimodal isotopic composition of post-ridge magmas may reflect coeval decompression and/or fluid fluxed melting of the mantle and melting, dehydration or assimilation of sediment in the down going plate during this time. The data are consistent with, and provide new temporal constrains for, models of ophiolite formation in supra-subduction zone settings.

Description: [1]  Geologists have long known that young normal faults are an important structural element of the Andean Coastal Cordillera, but their relationship to the subduction seismic cycle is still unclear. Some of the largest aftershocks of the 2010 M w  8.8 Maule earthquake in central Chile were nucleated on upper plate normal faults, including the M w  6.9 and 7.0 events of the Pichilemu earthquake sequence. We use the available coseismic GPS displacements, moment tensor sums, and slip distribution models for the Maule earthquake to compute the static strain and stress fields imposed on the upper plate by slip on the subduction interface. The extensional strains calculated from coseismic GPS and from a moment tensor sum of the Pichilemu events have similar orientations and orders of magnitude. The normal Coulomb stress increment (CSI) on the Pichilemu fault has maximum positive stresses as high as 4.9 MPa. Regionally, the Maule event produced a semi-elliptical, radial pattern of static extension and deviatoric tension (CSI 〉 1.5 MPa) along the Coastal Cordillera enclosing the rupture area. This elliptical pattern mimics the trends of the major upper-crustal structures. The static deformation field produced by a great subduction earthquake is an effective mechanism for generating permanent extension above the seismogenic zone, reactivating suitably oriented, long-lived normal faults. We suggest that the semi-elliptical outline of the first-order structures along the Coastal Cordillera may define the location of a characteristic, long-lived megathrust segment. This observation implies a persistence at least over the Quaternary of great subduction ruptures along the Maule segment.

Description: [1]  Subduction zone earthquakes exhibit a wide spectrum of rupture times that reflect conditions on the megathrust fault. Tsunami earthquakes are examples of slower than expected ruptures that produce anomalously large tsunamis relative to the surface-wave magnitude. One model explaining tsunami earthquakes suggests slip within patches of low rigidity material at shallow depths. Heterogeneous fault conditions, such as having patches of low rigidity material surrounded by higher strength material, should produce heterogeneous earthquake rupture parameters. Here we investigate along-strike variation in rupture duration for 427 shallow thrust earthquakes ( M w = 5.0–7.0) in the Peru, Chile, Alaska, Tonga, Kuril, Izu, and Java-Sumatra subduction zones to explore how heterogeneous seismic and tectonic characteristics, such as differences in sediment type, thickness, and roughness of subducting bathymetry, affect earthquake properties. Earthquake source parameters, including rupture durations, are estimated using multi-station deconvolution of teleseismic P and SH waves to solve for earthquake source time functions, and all events are relocated using additional depth phase information. We classify events into shallow (≤26 km) and deep (〉26 km and ≤61 km) groups based on the overall mean depth and focus on the longest duration events with moment normalized rupture durations of 〉1 standard deviation above the mean duration for each group. We find long-duration events at all depths within the study regions except Peru and Chile. We find no correlation with incoming sediment thickness or type, and limited spatial correlation with regions of past tsunami earthquakes, regions of observed afterslip, and subducting bathymetric features.

Description: [1]  Between 24 March and 5 June 2010, the Hyperion hyperspectral imager and Advanced Land imager (ALI) on NASA's Earth Observing 1 ( EO-1 ) spacecraft obtained an unprecedented sequence of 50 observation pairs of the eruptionsat FimmvörðuhálsandEyjafjallajökull, Iceland. This high acquisition rate was possible only through the use of data flow streamlined by using the autonomously-operating NASA Volcano Sensor Web (VSW). The VSW incorporates notifications of volcanic activity from multiple sources to re-task EO-1 and process Hyperion data to extract eruption parameters from high spatial and spectral resolution visible and short-wavelength infrared data. Physical changes in eruption style and magnitude were charted as the eruptions ran their course. Rapid data downlink and automatic data-processing algorithms generated a variety of products which are compared with estimates from ground-based observations and post-eruption insitu measurements. Estimates of effusion rate from heat loss measurements underestimate actual effusion rate (while still following broad eruption rate trends) but are closer to insitu estimates for effusive eruptions (Fimmvörðuháls) than explosive, ash-rich eruptions (Eyjafjallajökull).During the latter stages of the 2010 eruption, VSW-generated products were rapidly delivered to end-users in Iceland to aid in the assessment of risk and hazard. The success of the VSW led toIcelandic Meteorological Office insitu sensors being incorporated into the VSWand in May 2011 an IMO seismic alert autonomously triggered EO-1 observations of a new eruption at Grímsvötn volcano. Finally, the VSW demonstrates an autonomy-driven, multi-asset, spacecraft re-tasking and data processing system for future NASA missions that maximizes science return.

Description: [1]  Surface velocities derived from GPS observations from 1993 to 2011 at several hundred sites across the deforming northwestern United States are used to further elucidate the region's active tectonics. The new velocities reveal that the clockwise rotations, relative to North America, seen in Oregon and western Washington from earlier GPS observations, continue to the east to include the Snake River Plain of Idaho and south into the Basin and Range of northern Nevada. Regional-scale rotation is attributed to gravitationally driven extension in the Basin and Range and Pacific-North America shear transferred through the Walker Lane belt aided by potentially strong pinning below the Idaho Batholith. The large rotating section comprising eastern Oregon displays very low internal deformation rates despite seismological evidence for a thin crust, warm mantle, organized mantle flow, and elevated topography. The observed disparity between mantle and surface kinematics suggests that either little stress acts between them (low basal shear) or that the crust is strong relative to the mantle. The rotation of the Oregon block impinges on Washington across the Yakima fold-thrust belt where shortening occurs in a closing-fan style. Elastic fault locking at the Cascadia subduction zone is reevaluated using the GPS velocities and recently published uplift rates. The 18 year GPS and 80 year leveling data can both be matched with a common locking model suggesting that the locking has been stable over many decades. The rate of strain accumulation is consistent with hundreds of years between great subduction events.

Description: [1]  A modified Jeffery model involving particle interactions allows the simulation of preferred orientation of crystals and the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility in magmatic flow with up to 40% of rigid particle fraction. Numerical simulations are compared to analogue and natural fabrics. A study of the role of particle concentration shows that the increasing percentage of crystal fraction in dilute suspensions leads to progressive attenuation of the fabric intensity and cyclicity. At high strains in simple shear flow the lineation converges to a constant value close to the shear plane. With increasing particle concentration the fabric diverges from the shear direction reflecting the effect of increased crystal tiling. The model can be applied to quantify mineral preferred orientations of crystal mushes in magmatic fabric studies.

Description: [1]  We studied the anatomy of the fault system where the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (M W 6.1) nucleated by means of ~64 k high-precision earthquake locations spanning one year. Data were analyzed by combining an automatic picking procedure for P- and S-waves, together with cross-correlation and double-difference location methods reaching a completeness magnitude for the catalogue equal to 0.7 including 425 clusters of similar earthquakes. [2]  The fault system is composed by two major faults: the high angle L'Aquila fault and the listric Campotosto fault, both located in the first 10 km of the upper crust. We detect an extraordinary degree of detail in the anatomy of the single fault segments resembling the degree of complexity observed by field geologists on fault outcrops. We observe multiple antithetic and synthetic fault segments tens of meters long in both the hanging-wall and footwall along with bends and cross fault intersections along the main fault and fault splays. [3]  The width of the L'Aquila fault zone varies along strike from 0.3 km where the fault exhibits the simplest geometry and experienced peaks in the slip distribution, up to 1.5 km at the fault tips with an increase in the geometrical complexity. These characteristics, similar to damage zone properties of natural faults, underline the key role of aftershocks in fault growth and coseismic rupture propagation processes. Additionally, we interpret the persistent nucleation of similar events at the seismicity cut-off depth as the presence of a rheological (i.e. creeping) discontinuity explaining how normal faults detach at depth.

Description: [1]  In Chen and Shearer (2011), we compared well injection data from the Salton Sea geothermal site with nearby seismicity. The detailed injection record for each injection well can be downloaded from the ‘geostream for geothermal resources’ website and include total injection volume and duration for each month. However, we incorrectly interpreted the duration to be the starting date of discrete injection events, which we compared with the occurrence time of individual seismicity swarms. This misinterpretation led to apparently more precise temporal correlations between injection times and swarm activity than can obtained from the injection data. The injection activities are continuous and the exact injection start and stop times for each well are not included in the records that we obtained. This error does not affect our main results, including the longer-term correlations between injection activities and seismicity, as well as the stress drop behavior with distance from injection wells. [2]  The specific corrections are as follows: [3]  (1) In Figure 8 in Chen and Shearer [2011] (Figure 1), The lines indicating exact timing for injection are removed from Figure 8(c). [4]  (2) In section 6.3, the sentence: ‘The swarms are located within the Salton Sea and Brawley geothermal fields, close to geothermal wells, especially the three swarms that started shortly after nearby injection events’ should be changed to ‘The swarms are located within the Salton Sea and Brawley geothermal fields, close to geothermal wells, especially the three swarms that occurred within active injection periods.’ [5]  (3) In paragraph 34, the opening sentence: ‘The large swarm in August, 2005 started less than 10 hours after a cluster of injection events, and exhibits NE-SW migration during the initial 10 hours’ should be changed to ‘The large swarm in August, 2005, is located within an area with a cluster of continuous injection wells, and exhibits NE-SW migration during the initial 10 hours.’ [6]  (4) In paragraph 34, the phrase in the last sentence: ‘The increased pore fluid pressure from multiple injection events prior to the seismicity may have’ should be changed to: ‘The increased fluid pressure from multiple injection wells nearby may have’ [7]  (5) In paragraph 37, the reference to Figure 8c in the last sentence should be removed. However, the fact that multiple injection wells are active at the same time remains a valid point.

Description: [1]  TEM and SEM/FIB sequential imaging of quartz grain boundaries from contact and regional metamorphic rocks show that most of the grain boundaries are open on the nanometer scale. Three types of voids occur. (i) Roughly 40 to 500 nm wide open zones parallel to the grain boundaries. They are suggested to be caused by general volume reduction as a result of anisotropic cooling contraction at temperatures decreasing below ca. 300 °C, the threshold temperature of diffusion in quartz, and of decompression expansion at pressures decreasing below several hundred MPa. (ii) Cavities of variable shape and up to micrometer size along the open grain boundaries, and (iii) cone-shaped, nanometer-sized depressions at sites where dislocation lines meet the open grain boundaries. The latter two types are generated by dissolution-precipitation processes. Open grain boundaries, cavities and depressions form a connected network of porosity, which allows fluid circulation and may affect physical properties of the rocks. The same process is suggested to occur along grain and phase boundaries in other rocks as exemplified in this study and it should be expected along intra-crystalline cracks or cleavage planes.

Description: Rocks deformed at low confining pressure are brittle, meaning that after peak stress the strength decreases to a residual value determined by frictional sliding. The difference between the peak and residual value is the stress drop. At high confining pressure, however, no stress drop occurs. The transition pressure at which no loss in strength occurs is a possible definition of the brittle-ductile transition. Here we show, using numerical rock deformation, how this type of brittle-ductile transition emerges from a simple model in which rock is idealized as an assemblage of cemented spherical unbreakable grains. Three-dimensional failure and residual strength envelopes determined for this model material illustrate that the brittle-ductile transition is a smoothly-varying, mean stress dependent function in principal stress space. Neither the Mohr-Coulomb nor the Drucker-Prager failure criterion, which are the most commonly used empirical laws in rock and soil mechanics, respectively, adequately describe the dependence of peak strength and the brittle-ductile transition on the intermediate stress (or Lode angle). A semi-quantitative comparison between the modeled peak strength envelope with a selection of existing polyaxial rock data shows that the emergent intermediate stress dependence of strength in bonded particle models is comparable to that observed in rock. Deformation of particle models in which bond shear failure is inhibited illustrate that the non-linear pressure dependence of strength (concave failure envelopes) is, at high mean stress, the result of microscopic shear failure, a result consistent with earlier two-dimensional numerical multiple-crack simulations.

Description: [1]  We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change estimate, we supplement the ICESat data with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper from 2002 to 2010 and NASA's Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor from 2010. The Airborne data are mainly concentrated along the ice margin and thus have a significant impact on the estimate of the volume change. Our results show that adding Airborne Topographic Mapper and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor data to the ICESat data increases the catchment-wide estimate of ice volume loss by 11%, mainly due to an improved volume loss estimate along the ice sheet margin. Furthermore, our results show a significant acceleration in mass loss at elevations above 1200 m. Both the improved mass loss estimate along the ice sheet margin and the acceleration at higher elevations have implications for predictions of the elastic adjustment of the lithosphere caused by present-day ice mass changes. Our study shows that the use of ICESat data alone to predict elastic uplift rates biases the predicted rates by several millimeters per year at GPS locations along the northwestern coast.

Description: [1]  The North China Craton (NCC) formed in the Paleoproterozoic and suffered cratonic destruction in the Mesozoic. It consists of the Western NCC (WNCC), the Trans-North China Orogen (TNCO) and the Eastern NCC (ENCC). We investigated the upper mantle structures in the southern NCC by using receiver functions analysis. Polarization analysis was applied to increase the quality of receiver functions. The seismic images show significant stratified structures in the upper mantle in the south of the NCC. In the south of the WNCC, the lithosphere is ~280 km thick and contains a low-velocity zone at ~110–220 km depth. This low-velocity zone is interpreted as an intracratonic partial melting zone. In the south of the TNCO and ENCC, there is a low-velocity zone at ~60–200 km depth, which results from the partial melting during the Mesozoic cratonic destruction. Its upper boundary is interpreted as new Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary at ~60–100 km depth. Below this low-velocity zone, there are the remains of Archean lithosphere (RAL). Blocks of RAL stagnate in the asthenosphere and reach depths over 300 km. A high-velocity slab extends from the uppermost mantle of the WNCC into the RAL with a dip-angle of ~20°. This slab is interpreted as the Paleoproterozoic slab, which indicates an eastward subduction between the WNCC and the ENCC. The WNCC is stable. The lithosphere in the south of the TNCO and ENCC suffered the Mesozoic cratonic destruction, while the destruction is relatively weaker than that in the north of the ENCC.

Description: [1]  In 2001 a nearly five month long sequence of shallow, mostly small magnitude earthquakes occurred beneath the city of Spokane, a city with a population of about 200,000, in the state of Washington. During most of the sequence, the earthquakes were not well located because seismic instrumentation was sparse. Despite poor-quality locations, the earthquake hypocenters were likely very shallow, because residents near the city center both heard and felt many of the earthquakes. The combination of poor earthquake locations and a lack of known surface faults with recent movement make assessing the seismic hazards related to the earthquake swarm difficult. However, the potential for destruction from a shallow moderate sized earthquake is high, for example Christchurch New Zealand in 2011, so assessing the hazard potential of a seismic structure involved in the Spokane earthquake sequence is important. Using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agency (ESA) ERS2 and ENVISAT satellites and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) RADARSAT-1 satellite we are able to show that slip on a shallow previously unknown thrust fault, that we name the Spokane Fault, is the source of the earthquake sequence. The part of the Spokane Fault that slipped during the 2001 earthquake sequence underlies the north part of the city, and slip on the fault was concentrated between ~0.3 and 2 km depth. Projecting the buried fault plane to the surface gives a possible surface trace for the Spokane Fault that strikes northeast from the city center into north Spokane.

Description: . [1]  The5-9 March 2011 Kamoamoa fissure eruption along the east rift zone of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, followed months of pronounced inflation at Kīlauea summit. We examine dike opening during and after the eruption using acomprehensiveinterferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data set in combination with continuous GPS data. We solve for distributed dike displacements usinga whole-Kīlauea model with dilating rift zonesand possiblya deep décollement. Modeledsurface dike opening increased from nearly 1.5 m to over 2.8 m from the first day to the end of the eruption, in agreement with field observations of surface fracturing. Surface dike opening ceased following the eruption, but subsurface opening in the dike continued into May 2011. Dike volumes increased from 15, to 16, to 21million cubic meters (MCM) after the first day, eruption end, and two months following, respectively. Dike shape is distinctive, with a main limb plunging from the surface to 2-3 km depth in the up-rift direction towards Kīlauea's summit, and a lesser projection extending in the down-rift direction towards Puʻu ʻŌʻōat 2 km depth. Volume losses beneath Kīlaueasummit (1.7 MCM) and Puʻu ʻŌʻō(5.6 MCM) crater,relative to dike plus erupted volume (18.3MCM), yield a dike to source volume ratio of 2.5 that is in the range expected for compressible magma without requiringadditional sources. Inflation of Kīlauea's summit in the months before the March 2011 eruption suggests that the Kamoamoa eruption resulted from overpressure of the volcano's magmatic system.