ALBERT

Description: [1]  We investigated the evolution of seismicity and deformation in the unstable eastern flank of Etna volcano over a thirty-year period (from 1980 to 2012). A significant temporal correlation has been revealed between periods of flank acceleration and intensified seismic activity by comparing seismicity along the northern border (Pernicana fault system) of the sliding flank and the deformation of the eastern flank. Two marked phases have been observed in 1984-1986 and in the years following 2002. These two phases are separated by an intermediate phase from 1987 to 2001, in which the flank sliding slowed down and the seismicity dropped drastically. This common temporal evolution in the deformation rate and seismic release supports the hypothesis that the seismicity in the northern border can be viewed as a marker of the response to accommodate the stress exerted by the traction of the eastern flank sliding. This interplay has also been corroborated by Finite Element Method (FEM) numerical computations that highlight a good correlation between the seismicity pattern and areas of positive stress changes induced by the sliding surface. The two intense phases of flank acceleration are representative of two main different sources: volcano flank instability stretching the eastern sector in the first 1984-1986 phase and magmatic intrusions pushing the eastern flank seaward since the 2002-03 eruption. Establishing the relationship between flank acceleration and seismic activation, therefore, contributes to understanding Etna's mechanical behavior, and provides insights into the processes regulating the unstable flank response.

Description: [1]  Numerous studies in the Central Pyrenees have provided evidence for a rapid phase of exhumation of this mountain belt during the Late Eocene (37–30 Ma). Simultaneously, the closure of the Ebro foreland basin allowed the accumulation of sediments at the southern Piedmont, which partially covered the fold-and-thrust belt from Late Eocene ( e . g . when it was still actively deforming) to Miocene times. We aim here at understanding the consequences of such syn-tectonic sedimentation on the Southern Pyrenean fold-and-thrust belt by using a 2-D numerical model that reproduces the development of a thin-skinned wedge subject to different modes of sedimentation and erosion. The results show contrasting fold-and-thrust belt behavior when applying aggrading or prograding sedimentation, which we link to the critical state of the wedge. When the sediments are sourced from the hinterland (progradation), the thrusting propagates toward the foreland; whereas when the sediments aggrade from the basin, the thrusting sequence migrates backward. This latter mode shows patterns of deformation that compare favorably to the Pyrenean thrusting sequence observed during Eocene-Miocene times.

Description: [1]  In southern California, fault slip rate estimates along the San Andreas fault (SAF) and Garlock fault from geodetically-constrained kinematic models are systematically at the low end or lower than geologic slip rate estimates. The sum of geodetic model slip rates across the Eastern California Shear Zone is higher than the geologic sum. However, the ranges of reported model and geologic slip rate estimates in the literature are sufficiently large that it remains unclear whether these apparent discrepancies are real, or attributable to epistemic uncertainties in the two types of estimates. We further examine uncertainties in geodetically-derived slip rate estimates on major faults in southern California by conducting a suite of inversions with four kinematic models. Long-term-rigid elastic block models constrained by the geologic slip rates cannot fit the present-day GPS-derived velocity field. Deforming (permanent off-fault strain) elastic block models and viscoelastic earthquake cycle block models constrained by geologic slip rates can fit the present-day GPS-derived velocity field with 28-33% of the total geodetic moment rate occurring as distributed deformation off of the major faults. Models incorporating viscoelastic mantle flow predict systematically higher slip rates than purely elastic models on many of the the major southern California faults with ranges of (elastic/viscoelastic) 29-34/30-37 mm/yr for the Carrizo SAF segment, 20-24/20-32 mm/yr for the Mojave SAF segment, 14-17/18-22 mm/yr for the Coachella SAF segment, 13-19/14-22 mm/yr for the San Jacinto fault, and 5-11/5-11 mm/yr for the western Garlock fault.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Patterns of migratory connectivity are a vital yet poorly understood component of the ecology and evolution of migratory birds. Our ability to accurately characterize patterns of migratory connectivity is often limited by the spatial resolution of the data but recent advances in probabilistic assignment approaches have begun pairing stable isotopes with other sources of data (e.g., genetic and mark-recapture) to improve the accuracy and precision of inferences based on a single marker. Here, we combine stable isotopes and geographic variation in morphology (wing length) to probabilistically assign Wood thrush (Hylocichla mustilena) captured on the wintering grounds to breeding locations. In addition, we use known origin samples to validate our model and assess potentially important impacts of covariates of isotopic and morphological data (age, sex and breeding location). Our results show that despite relatively high levels of mixing across their breeding and non-breeding ranges, moderate levels of migratory connectivity along an east-west gradient exist. In addition, combining stable isotopes with geographic variation in wing improved the precision of breeding assignments by 10% and 37% compared to assignments based on isotopes alone or wing length alone, respectively. These results demonstrate that geographical variation in morphological traits can greatly improve estimates of migratory connectivity when combined with other intrinsic markers (e.g., stable isotopes or genetic data). The wealth of morphological data available from museum specimens across the world represents a tremendously valuable, but largely untapped, resource that is widely applicable for quantifying patterns of migratory connectivity.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Efforts to test and improve terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) using a variety of data sources have become increasingly common. However, geographically extensive forest inventories have been under-exploited in previous model-data fusion efforts. Inventory observations of forest growth, mortality, and biomass integrate processes across a range of time scales, including slow time-scale processes such as species turnover, that are likely to have important effects on ecosystem responses to environmental variation. However, the large number (thousands) of inventory plots precludes detailed measurements at each location, so that uncertainty in climate, soil properties, and other environmental drivers may be large. Errors in driver variables, if ignored, introduce bias into model-data fusion. We estimated errors in climate and soil drivers at U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, and we explored the effects of these errors on model-data fusion with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory LM3V dynamic global vegetation model. When driver errors were ignored or assumed small at FIA plots, responses of biomass production in LM3V to precipitation and soil available water capacity appeared steeper than the corresponding responses estimated from FIA data. These differences became non-significant if driver errors at FIA plots were assumed large. Ignoring driver errors when optimizing LM3V parameter values yielded estimates for fine-root allocation that were larger than biometric estimates, which is consistent with the expected direction of bias. To explore if complications posed by driver errors could be circumvented by relying on intensive study sites where driver errors are small, we performed a power analysis. To accurately quantify the response of biomass production to spatial variation in mean annual precipitation within the eastern U.S. would require at least 40 intensive study sites, which is larger than the number of sites typically available for individual biomes in existing plot networks. Driver errors may be accommodated by several existing model-data fusion approaches, including hierarchical Bayesian methods and ensemble filtering methods; however, these methods are computationally expensive. We propose a new approach, in which the TBM functional response is fit directly to the driver-error-corrected functional response estimated from data, rather than to the raw observations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Much of our understanding of natural forest dynamics in the temperate region of Europe is based on observational studies in old-growth remnants that have emphasized small-scale gap dynamics and equilibrium stand structure and composition. Relatively little attention has been given to the role of infrequent disturbance events in forest dynamics. In this study, we analyzed dendroecological data from four stands and three windthrow patches in an old-growth landscape in the Dinaric Mountains of Bosnia and Herzegovina to examine disturbance history, tree life history traits, and compositional dynamics. Over all stands, most decades during the past 340 years experienced less than 10% canopy loss, yet each stand showed evidence of periodic intermediate severity disturbances that removed 〉 40% of the canopy, some of which were synchronized over the study area landscape. Analysis of radial growth patterns indicated several life history differences among the dominant canopy trees; beech was markedly older than fir, while growth patterns of dead and dying trees suggested fir was able to tolerate longer periods of suppressed growth in shade. Maple had the fastest radial growth and accessed the canopy primarily through rapid early growth in canopy gaps, whereas most beech and fir experienced a period of suppressed growth prior to canopy accession. Peaks in disturbance were roughly linked to increased recruitment, but mainly of shade tolerant beech and fir; less tolerant species (i.e. maple, ash, and elm) recruited successfully on some of the windthown sites where advance regeneration of beech and fir was less abundant. The results challenge the traditional notions of stability in temperate old-growth of Europe and highlight the non-equilibrial nature of canopy composition due to unique histories of disturbance and tree life history differences. These findings provide valuable information for developing natural disturbance-based silvicultural systems, as well as insight into maintaining less shade tolerant, but valuable broadleaved trees in temperate forests of Europe.

Description: [1]  Determining the scale-length, magnitude, and distribution of heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle is crucial to understanding whole mantle dynamics, and yet it remains a much debated and ongoing challenge in geophysics. Common shortcomings of current seismically-derived lowermost mantle models are incomplete raypath coverage, arbitrary model parameterization, inaccurate uncertainty estimates, and an ad hoc definition of the misfit function in the optimization framework. In response, we present a new approach to global tomography. Apart from improving the existing raypath coverage using only high quality cross-correlated waveforms, the problem is addressed within a Bayesian framework where explicit regularization of model parameters is notrequired. We obtain high resolution images, complete with uncertainty estimates, of the lowermost mantle P-wave velocity structure using a hand-picked dataset of PKPab-df, PKPbc-df, and PcP-P differential traveltimes. Most importantly, our results demonstrate that the root mean square of the P-wave velocity variations in the lowermost mantle is approximately 0.87%, which is three times larger than previous global-scale estimates.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1322-1330, September 2013. Cities produce considerable ecological light pollution (ELP), yet the effects of artificial night lighting on biological communities and ecosystem function have not been fully explored. From June 2010 to June 2011, we surveyed aquatic emergent insects, riparian arthropods entering the water, and riparian spiders of the family Tetragnathidae at nine stream reaches representing common ambient ELP levels of Columbus, Ohio, USA, streams (low, 0.1–0.5 lux; moderate, 0.6–2.0 lux; high, 2.1–4.0 lux). In August 2011, we experimentally increased light levels at the low- and moderate-treatment reaches to 10–12 lux to represent urban streams exposed to extremely high levels of ELP. Although season exerted the dominant influence on invertebrate fluxes over the course of the year, when analyzed by season, we found that light strongly influenced multiple invertebrate responses. The experimental light addition resulted in a 44% decrease in tetragnathid spider density (P = 0.035), decreases of 16% in family richness (P = 0.040) and 76% in mean body size (P = 0.022) of aquatic emergent insects, and a 309% increase in mean body size of terrestrial arthropods (P = 0.015). Our results provide evidence that artificial light sources can alter community structure and ecosystem function in streams via changes in reciprocal aquatic–terrestrial fluxes of invertebrates.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1357-1366, September 2013. Examining the causes of interspecific differences in susceptibility to bidirectional land-use changes (land abandonment and use-intensification) is important for understanding the mechanisms of global biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes. We tested the hypothesis that rare (endangered) plant species prefer wet and oligotrophic areas within topography- and management-mediated resource (soil water content, nutrient, and aboveground biomass) gradients, making them more susceptible to both abandonment and use-intensification of agricultural lands. We demonstrated that topography and management practices generated resource gradients in seminatural grasslands around traditional paddy terraces. Terraced topography and management practices produced a soil moisture gradient within levees and a nutrient gradient within paddy terraces. Both total and rare species diversity increased with soil water content. Total species diversity increased in more eutrophied areas with low aboveground biomass, whereas rare species diversity was high under oligotrophic conditions. Rare and common species were differentially distributed along the human-induced nutrient gradient, with rare species preferring wet, nutrient-poor environments in the agricultural landscapes studied. We suggest that conservation efforts should concentrate on wet, nutrient-poor areas within such landscapes, which can be located easily using land-use and topography maps. This strategy would reduce the costs of finding and conserving rare grassland species in a given agricultural landscape.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1429-1442, September 2013. Carryover effects occur when experiences early in life affect an individual's performance at a later stage. Many studies have shown carryover effects to be important for future performance. However, it is currently unclear whether variation in later environments could overwhelm factors from an earlier life stage. We were interested in whether similar patterns would emerge under the same experimental design with similar taxa. To examine this, we implemented a four-way factorial experimental design with different forestry practices on three species of anurans (each examined in different years) in the aquatic larval environment and terrestrial juvenile environment in outdoor mesocosms in central Missouri, USA. Using Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark–recapture models implemented in program MARK, we investigated whether one environment or both environments best predicted terrestrial juvenile survival. We found only limited evidence of carryover effects for one of three species in one time period. These were the effects of time to metamorphosis and body condition at metamorphosis predicting leopard frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus) survival. However, both effects were counterintuitive and/or very weak. For wood frogs (L. sylvaticus), all of the variables predicting survival had confidence intervals that included zero, but very low survival may have limited our ability to estimate parameters. The terrestrial environment was important for predicting survival in both American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) and southern leopard frogs. The partial harvest forest tended to increase survival relative to control forest and early-successional forest in American toads. Alternately, early-successional forest with downed wood removed increased survival for leopard frogs, but this treatment was no different from control forest for American toads. Previous studies have shown negative effects of recent clearcuts on terrestrial amphibians. It appears that vegetative regrowth after just a few years can mitigate these initial negative effects. Our study shows that variation in later environments probably can overwhelm variation from earlier environments. However, previous evidence of carryover effects suggests that more research is needed to predict when carryover effects are likely to occur.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1475-1487, September 2013. Statistical indicators such as rising variance and rising skewness in key system parameters may provide early warning of “regime shifts” in communities and populations. However, the utility of these indicators has rarely been tested in the large, complex ecosystems that are of most interest to managers. Crustacean fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea experienced a series of collapses beginning in the 1970s, and we used spatially resolved catch data from these fisheries to test the predictions that increasing variability and skewness would precede stock collapse. Our data set consisted of catch data from 14 fisheries (12 collapsing and two non-collapsing), spanning 278 cumulative years. Our sampling unit for analysis was the Alaska Department of Fish and Game statistical reporting area (mean n for individual fisheries = 42 areas, range 7–81). We found that spatial variability in catches increased prior to stock collapse: a random-effects model estimating trend in variability across all 12 collapsing fisheries showed strong evidence of increasing variability prior to collapse. Individual trends in variability were statistically significant for only four of the 12 collapsing fisheries, suggesting that rising variability might be most effective as an indicator when information from multiple populations is available. Analyzing data across multiple fisheries allowed us to detect increasing variability 1–4 years prior to collapse, and trends in variability were significantly different for collapsing and non-collapsing fisheries. In spite of theoretical expectations, we found no evidence of pre-collapse increases in catch skewness. Further, while models generally predict that rising variability should be a transient phenomenon around collapse points, increased variability was a persistent feature of collapsed fisheries in our study. We conclude that this result is more consistent with fishing effects as the cause of increased catch variability, rather than the critical slowing down that is the driver of increased variability in regime shift models. While our results support the use of rising spatial variability as a leading indicator of regime shifts, the failure of our data to support other model-derived predictions underscores the need for empirical validation before these indicators can be used with confidence by ecosystem managers.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Determining the range of a species and exploring species-habitat associations are central questions in ecology and can be answered by analyzing presence-absence data. Often, both the sampling of sites and the desired area of inference involve neighboring sites; thus positive spatial autocorrelation between these sites is expected. Using survey data for the Southern ground hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, we compared advantages and disadvantages of three increasingly complex models for species occupancy: an occupancy model that accounted for nondetection but assumed all sites were independent, and two spatial occupancy models that accounted for both nondetection and spatial autocorrelation. We modeled the spatial autocorrelation with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model and with a restricted spatial regression (RSR) model. Both spatial models can readily be applied to any other gridded, presence-absence data set using a newly introduced R package. The RSR model provided the best inference and was able to capture small-scale variation that the other models did not. It showed that ground hornbills are strongly dependent on protected areas in the north of their South African range but less so further south. The ICAR models did not capture any spatial autocorrelation in the data, and they took an order of magnitude longer than the RSR models to run. Thus, the RSR occupancy model appears to be an attractive choice for modeling occurrences at large spatial domains, while accounting for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Our increasing dependence on a small number of agricultural crops such as corn is leading to reductions in agricultural biodiversity. Reductions in the number of crops in rotation or the replacement of rotations by monocultures are responsible for this loss of biodiversity. The belowground implications of simplifying agricultural plant communities remain unresolved; however, agroecosystem sustainability will be severely compromised if reductions in biodiversity reduce soil C and N concentrations, alter microbial communities, and degrade soil ecosystem functions as reported in natural communities. We conducted a meta-analysis of 122 studies to examine crop rotation effects on total soil C and N concentrations, and the faster cycling microbial biomass C and N pools that play key roles in soil nutrient cycling and physical processes such as aggregate formation. We specifically examined how rotation crop type and management practices influence C and N dynamics in different climates and soil types. We found that adding one or more crops in rotation to a monoculture increased total soil C by 3.6% and total N by 5.3%, but when rotations included a cover crop (i.e. crops that are not harvested but produced to enrich the soil and capture inorganic N), total C increased by 8.5% and total N 12.8%. Rotations substantially increased the soil microbial biomass C (20.7%) and N (26.1%) pools, and these overwhelming effects on microbial biomass were not moderated by crop type or management practices. Crop rotations, especially those that include cover crops, sustain soil quality and productivity by enhancing soil C, N and microbial biomass, making them a cornerstone for sustainable agroecosystems.

Description: [1]  The Dzhungarian strike-slip fault of Central Asia is one of a series of long, NW-SE right-lateral strike-slip faults that are characteristic of the northern Tien Shan region, and extends over 300 km from the high mountains into the Kazakh Platform. Our field-based and satellite observations reveal that the Dzhungarian fault can be characterised by three 100 km long sections based on variation in strike direction. Through morphological analysis of offset streams and alluvial fans, and through OSLdating, we find that the Dzhungarian fault has a minimum average late Quaternary slip rate of 2.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr and accommodates N-S shortening related to the India-Eurasia collision. This shortening may also be partly accommodated by counter-clockwise rotation about a vertical axis. Evidence for a possible paleo-earthquake rupture indicates that earthquakes up to at least Mw 7 can be associated with just the partitioned component of reverse slip on segments of the central section of the fault up to 30 km long. An event rupturing longer sections of the Dzhungarian fault has the potential to generate greater magnitude earthquakes ( Mw 8), however long time periods (e.g. thousands of years) are expected in order to accumulate enough strain to generate such earthquakes.

Description: [1]  We performed shock compression experiments on preheated forsterite liquid (Mg 2 SiO 4 ) at an initial temperature of 2273 K and have revised the equation of state (EOS) that was previously determined by shock melting of initially solid Mg 2 SiO 4 (300 K). The linear Hugoniot, U S  = 2.674 ± 0.188 + 1.64 ± 0.06 u p km/s, constrains the bulk sound speed within a temperature and composition space as yet unexplored by 1-bar ultrasonic experiments. We have also revised the EOS for enstatite liquid (MgSiO 3 ) to exclude experiments that may have been only partially melted upon shock compression and also the EOS for anorthite liquid, which now excludes potentially un-relaxed experiments at low pressure. The revised fits and the previously determined EOS of fayalite and diopside were used to produce isentropes in the multicomponent CaO-MgO-Al 2 O 3 -SiO 2 -FeO system at elevated temperatures and pressures. Our results are similar to those previously presented for peridotite and simplified “chondrite” liquids such that regardless of where crystallization first occurs, the liquidus solid sinks upon formation. This process is not conducive to the formation of a basal magma ocean. We also examined the chemical and physical plausibility of the partial melt hypothesis to explain the occurrence and characteristics of ultralow velocity zones. We determined that the ambient mantle cannot produce an equilibrium partial melt and residue that is sufficiently dense to be a ULVZ mush. The partial melt would need to be segregated from its equilibrium residue and combined with a denser solid component to achieve a sufficiently large aggregate density.

Description: [1]  High resolution sparker and crustal-scale airgun seismic reflection data, coupled with repeat bathymetric surveys, document a region of repeated coseismic uplift on the portion of the Alaska subduction zone that ruptured in 1964. This area defines the western limit of Prince William Sound. Differencing of vintage and modern bathymetric surveys shows that the region of greatest uplift related to the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was focused along a series of sub-parallel faults beneath Prince William Sound and the adjacent Gulf of Alaska shelf. Bathymetric differencing indicates that 12 m of coseismic uplift occurred along two faults that reached the sea floor as submarine terraces on the Cape Cleare bank southwest of Montague Island. Sparker seismic reflection data provide cumulative Holocene slip estimates as high as 9 mm/yr along a series of splay thrust faults within both the inner wedge and transition zone of the accretionary prism. Crustal seismic data show that these megathrust splay faults root separately into the subduction zone décollement. Splay fault divergence from this megathrust correlates with changes in mid-crustal seismic velocity and magnetic susceptibility values, best explained by duplexing of the subducted Yakutat terrane rocks above Pacific plate rocks along the trailing edge of the Yakutat terrane. Although each splay fault is capable of independent motion, we conclude that the identified splay faults rupture in a similar pattern during successive megathrust earthquakes and that the region of greatest seismic coupling has remained consistent throughout the Holocene.

Description: [1]  We perform a time-lapse analysis of Rayleigh and Love wave anisotropy above an underground gas storage facility in the Paris Basin. The data were acquired with a three-component seismic array deployed during several days in April and November 2010. Phase velocity and back azimuth of Rayleigh and Love waves are measured in the frequency range 0.2-1.1 Hz using a three-component beamforming algorithm. In both snapshots, higher surface wave modes start dominating the signal above 0.4 Hz with a concurrent increase in back azimuth ranges. We fit anisotropy parameters to the array detections above 0.4 Hz using a bootstrap approach which also provides estimation uncertainty and enables significance testing. The isotropic phase velocity dispersion for Love and Rayleigh waves match for both snapshots. We also observe a stable fast direction of NNW-SSE for Love and Rayleigh waves which is aligned with the preferred orientation of known shallow (〈300 m) and deeper (~1000 m) fault systems in the area, as well as the maximum horizontal stress orientation. At lower frequencies corresponding to deeper parts of the basin, the anisotropic parameters exhibit higher magnitude in the November data. This may perhaps be caused by the higher pore-pressure changes in the gas reservoir in that depth range.

Description: [1]  Eruptive activity at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii beginning in 2010 and continuing to the present time is characterized by transient outgassing bursts accompanied by very long period (VLP) seismic signals triggered by rockfalls from the vent walls impacting a lava lake in a pit within the Halemaumau pit crater. We use raw data recorded with a 11-station broadband network to model the source mechanism of signals accompanying two large rockfalls on August 29, 2012 and two smaller average rockfalls obtained by stacking over all events with similar waveforms to improve the signal-to-noise ratio. To determine the source centroid location and source mechanism, we minimize the residual error between data and synthetics calculated by the finite difference method for a point source embedded in a homogeneous medium that takes topography into account. We apply a new waveform inversion method that accounts for the contributions from both translation and tilt in horizontal seismograms through the use of Green's functions representing the seismometer response to translation and tilt ground motions. This method enables a robust description of the source mechanism over the period range 1-1000 s. The VLP signals associated with the rockfalls originate in a source region ~1 km below the eastern perimeter of the Halemaumau pit crater. The observed waveforms are well explained by a simple volumetric source with geometry composed of two intersecting cracks including an east striking crack (dike) dipping 80 ∘ to the north, intersecting a north striking crack (another dike) dipping 65 ∘ to the east. Each rockfall is marked by a similar step-like inflation trailed by decaying oscillations of the volumetric source, attributed to the efficient coupling at the source centroid location of the pressure and momentum changes induced by the rock mass impacting the top of the lava column. Assuming a simple lumped parameter representation of the shallow magmatic system, the observed pressure and volume variations can be modeled with the following attributes: rockfall volume (200 − 4500 m 3 ), length of magma column (120-210 m), diameter of pipe connecting the Halemaumau pit crater to the subjacent dike system (6 m), average thickness of the two underlying dikes (3 – 6 m), and effective magma viscosity (30–210 Pa s). Most rockfalls occur during episodes of sustained deflation of the Kilauea summit. The mass loss rate in the shallow magmatic system is estimated to be 1400  −  15, 000 kg s − 1 based on measurements of the temporal variation of VLP period in the two large rockfalls that occurred on August 29, 2012.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle, but the amount of carbon they contain and its spatial distribution remain uncertain. Recent studies suggest that once tree height is accounted for in biomass calculations, in addition to diameter and wood density, carbon stock estimates are reduced in many areas. However, it is possible that larger crown sizes might offset the reduction in biomass estimates in some forests where tree heights are lower because even comparatively short trees develop large, well-lit crowns in or above the forest canopy. While current allometric models and theory focus on diameter, wood density, and height, the influence of crown size and structure has not been well studied. To test the extent to which accounting for crown parameters can improve biomass estimates, we harvested and weighed 51 trees (11-169 cm diameter) in southwestern Amazonia where no direct biomass measurements have been made. The trees in our study had nearly half of total aboveground biomass in the branches (44 ± 2 %), demonstrating the importance of accounting for tree crowns. Consistent with our predictions, key pantropical equations that include height, but do not account for crown dimensions, underestimated the sum total biomass of all 51 trees by 11 to 14 %, primarily due to severe underestimates of many of the largest trees. In our models, including crown radius greatly improves performance and reduces error, especially for the largest trees. In addition, over the full dataset, crown radius marginally explained more variation in aboveground biomass (10.5 %) than height (6.0 %). Crown form is also important: trees with a monopodial architectural type are estimated to have 21-44 % less mass than trees with other growth patterns. Our analysis suggests that accounting for crown allometry would substantially improve the accuracy of tropical estimates of tree biomass and its distribution in primary and degraded forests.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Tropical forests are important storehouses of carbon and biodiversity. In isolated island ecosystems such as the Hawaiian Islands, relative dominance of native and non-native tree species may influence patterns of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity. We determined aboveground carbon density (ACD) across a matrix of lava flows differing in age, texture and vegetation composition (i.e., native or non-native dominated) in wet lowland forests of Hawaii Island. To do this at the large scales necessary to accurately capture the inherent heterogeneity of these forests, we collected LiDAR data across areas of interest and developed relationships between LiDAR metrics and field-based estimates of forest ACD. This approach enabled us to inventory, rather than merely sample, the entire populations (i.e., forests) of interest. Native Hawaiian wet lowland forests exhibited ACD values similar to those of intact tropical forests elsewhere. In general, ACD of these forests increased with increasing lava flow age, but patterns differed between native and non-native forest stands. On the youngest lavas, native-dominated forest ACD averaged 〈 60 Mg ha-1 compared to ca. 100 Mg C ha-1 for non-native dominated forests. This difference was due to the presence of the non-native, N2-fixing trees, F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia in the non-native dominated forest stands, as well as the corresponding absence of N2-fixing trees in native-dominated forest stands. Following approximately 500 years of primary succession and thereafter, however, both forest types exhibited ACD values averaging ca. 130 Mg C ha-1, although it took non-native forests only 75 to 80 years of post-establishment succession to reach those values. Given the large areas of early successional M. polymorpha-dominated forest on young lava flows, further spread of F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia populations would likely increase ACD stocks but would constitute a significant erosion of the invaluable contribution of Hawaii's native ecosystems to global biodiversity.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Despite the importance of fire and herbivory in structuring savanna systems, few replicated experiments have examined the interactive effects of herbivory and fire on plant dynamics. In addition, the effects of fire on associated ant-tree mutualisms have been largely unexplored. We carried out small controlled burns in each of 18 herbivore treatment plots of the Kenya Long-term Exclosure Experiment (KLEE), where experimentally excluding elephants has resulting in 42% greater tree densities. The KLEE design includes six different herbivore treatments that allowed us to examine how different combinations of megaherbivore wildlife, mesoherbivore wildlife, and cattle affect fire temperatures and subsequent loss of ant symbionts from Acacia trees. Before burning, we quantified herbaceous fuel loads and plant community composition. We tagged all trees, measured their height and basal diameter, and identified the resident ant species on each. We recorded weather conditions during the burns and used ceramic tiles painted with fire-sensitive paints to estimate fire temperatures at different heights and in different microsites (under versus between trees). Across all treatments, fire temperatures were highest at 0-50cm off the ground and hotter in the grass under trees than in the grassy areas between trees. Plots with more trees burned hotter than plots with fewer trees, perhaps because of greater fine woody debris. Plots grazed by wildlife and by cattle prior to burning had lower herbaceous fuel loads and experienced lower burn temperatures than ungrazed plots. Many trees lost their ant colonies during the burns. Ant survivorship differed by ant species, and at the plot level was positively associated with previous herbivory (and lower fire temperatures). Across all treatments, ant colonies on taller trees were more likely to survive, but even some of the tallest trees lost their ant colonies. Our study marks a significant step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie the interactions between fire and herbivory in savanna ecosystems.

Description: [1]  On 5 September 2012, a large thrust earthquake (M w 7.6) ruptured a densely-instrumented seismic gap on the shallow-dipping plate boundary beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica. Ground motion recordings directly above the rupture zone provide a unique opportunity to study the detailed source process of a large shallow megathrust earthquake using very nearby land observations. Hypocenter relocation using local seismic network data indicates that the event initiated with small emergent seismic waves from a hypocenter ~10 km offshore, 13 km deep on the megathrust. A joint finite-fault inversion using high-rate GPS, strong-motion ground velocity recordings, GPS static offsets, and teleseismic P waves reveals that the primary slip zone (slip 〉 1 m) is located beneath the peninsula. The rupture propagated down-dip from the hypocenter with a rupture velocity of ~3.0 km/s. The primary slip zone extends ~70 km along strike and ~30 km along dip, with an average slip of ~2 m. The associated static stress drop is ~3 MPa. The seismic moment is 3.5 x 10 20  Nm, giving M w  = 7.6. The co-seismic large-slip patch directly overlaps an onshore inter-seismic locked region indicated by geodetic observations, and extends down-dip to the intersection with the upper plate Moho. At deeper depths, below the upper plate Moho, seismic tremor and low frequency earthquakes have been observed. Most tremor locates in adjacent areas of the megathrust that have little co-seismic slip; a region of prior slow slip deformation to the southeast also has no significant co-seismic slip or aftershocks. An offshore locked patch indicated by geodetic observations does not appear to have experienced co-seismic slip, and aftershocks do not overlap this region, allowing the potential for a comparable size rupture offshore in the future.

Description: [1]  Seismic shear waves emitted by earthquakes can be modeled as plane (transverse) waves. When entering an anisotropic medium they can be split into two orthogonal components moving at different speeds. This splitting occurs along an axis, the fast polarization, that is determined by geologic conditions. We present here a comprehensive analysis of the Silver and Chan (1991) method, used to obtain shear wave splitting parameters, comprising theoretical derivations and statistical tests of the assumptions used to construct the standard errors. We find discrepancies in the derivations of equations in their article, with the most important being a mistake in how the standard errors are calculated. Our simulations suggest that the degrees of freedom are being overestimated by this method and consequently the standard errors are too small. Using a set of S waveforms from very similar shallow earthquakes on Reunion Island, we perform a statistical analysis on the noise of these replicates and find that the assumption of Gaussian noise does not hold. Further, the properties of background noise differ substantially from the noise obtained from the shear wave splitting analysis. However, we find that the standard errors for the fast polarization are comparable to the spread in the fast polarization parameters. Delay time errors appear to be comparable to delay time estimates once cycle skipping is accounted for. Future work using synthetic seismograms with simulated noise should be conducted to confirm this is the case for earthquakes in general.

Description: [1]  The sliver strike-slip Great Sumatra Fault (GSF) traverses mainland Sumatra from the Sunda Strait in the southeast to Banda Aceh in the northwest, and defines the present day plate boundary between the Sunda Plate in the north and the Burmese Sliver Plate in the south. It has been well studied on mainland Sumatra but poorly north of Banda Aceh in the Andaman Sea. Here we present deep seismic reflection images along the northward extension of the GSF over 700 km until it joins the Andaman Sea Spreading Centre and we interpret these images in the light of earthquake, gravity, and bathymetry data. We find that the GSF has two strands between Banda Aceh and Nicobar Island: a transpression in the south and a deep narrow active rift system in the north dotted with volcanoes in the center, suggesting that the volcanic arc is coincident with rifting. Further north of Nicobar Island, an active strike-slip fault, the Andaman-Nicobar Fault, cuts through a rifted deep basin until its intersection with the Andaman Sea Spreading Centre. The volcanic arc lies just east of the rift basin. The western margin of this basin seems to be a rifted continental margin, tilted westward, and flooring the Andaman-Nicobar forearc basin. The Andaman-Nicobar forearc basin is bounded in the west by backthrusts similar to the West Andaman and Mentawai faults. The cluster of seismicity after the 2004 great Andaman-Sumatra earthquake just north of Nicobar Island coincides with the intersection of two strike-slip fault systems.

Description: [1]  The Japan Tohoku-Oki earthquake (9.0 Mw) of 11 March 2011 has left signatures in the Earth's gravity field that are detectable by data of the GRACE mission. Because ESA's satellite gravity mission GOCE – launched in 2009 – aims at high spatial resolution, its measurements could complement the GRACE information on coseismic gravity changes, although time-variable gravity was not foreseen as goal of the GOCE mission. We modeled the coseismic earthquake geoid signal and converted this signal to vertical gravity gradients at GOCE satellite altitude. We combined the single gradient observations in a novel way reducing the noise level, required to detect the coseismic gravity change, subtracted a global gravity model, and applied tailored outlier detection to the resulting gradient residuals. Furthermore, the measured gradients were along-track filtered using different gradient bandwidths where in the space domain Gaussian smoothing has been applied. One year periods before and after earthquake occurrence have been compared with the modeled gradients. The comparison reveals that the earthquake signal is well above the accuracy of the vertical gravity gradients at orbital height. Moreover, the obtained signal from GOCE shows a 1.3 times higher amplitude compared with the modeled signal. Besides the statistical significance of the obtained signal, it has a high spatial correlation of ~0.7 with the forward modeled signal. We conclude therefore that the coseismic gravity change of the Japan Tohoku-Oki earthquake left a statistically significant signal in the GOCE measured gravity gradients.

Description: [1]  The Ninetyeast Ridge (NER), one of the longest linear volcanic features on the Earth, offers an excellent opportunity of understanding the isostatic response to the interactions of mantle plume with the migrating mid-ocean ridge. Bathymetry, geoid and gravity (ship-borne and satellite) data along 72 closely spaced transects and 17 overlapping grids on the NER are analyzed and modeled to determine the effective elastic thickness ( Te ) beneath the entire ridge. The results of 2-D and 3-D flexural modeling of the NER show large spatial variations in Te values ranging from 4 to 35 km, suggesting that the ridge was compensated along its length by different isostatic mechanisms. The southern (south of 22°S latitude) and northern (north of 2°N latitude) parts of the NER have Te values of 〉10 and 〉23 km, respectively, revealing that the southern part was emplaced on a lithosphere of intermediate strength possibly on flank of the Indian plate, whereas the northern part was emplaced in an intraplate setting. In contrast, in the central part of the NER (between latitudes 22°S and 2°N), highly variable Te values (4–22 km) are estimated. The scattered Te values in the central NER suggest that this part may have evolved due to the occurrence of more frequent ridge jumps caused by the interaction of Kerguelen hot spot with rapid northward migration of the Wharton spreading ridge. Residual Mantle Bouguer Anomaly (RMBA) map of the NER and adjacent basins reveals that the entire length of the NER is associated with a significant negative anomaly up to 200 mGal, indicating the presence of thickened crust or less dense mantle beneath the ridge. 3-D crustal thickness map of the NER, generated by inversion of the RMBA data, shows a thick crust ranging from 15 to 19 km. The present study clearly shows that NER possesses a highly segmented isostatic pattern with the occurrence of sub-crustal underplating or sub-surface loading.

Description: [1]  We conducted deep-sea magnetic measurements using autonomous underwater vehicles in the Bayonnaise knoll caldera, the Izu-Ogasawara island arc, which hosts the large Hakurei hydrothermal field. We improved the conventional correction method applied for removing the effect of vehicle magnetization, thus greatly enhancing the precision of the resulting vector anomalies. The magnetization distribution obtained from the vector anomaly data shows an ∼ 2-km-wide belt of high magnetization, trending NNW–SSE going through the caldera, and a low magnetization zone ∼ 300 m by ∼ 500 m in area, extending over the Hakurei site. Comparison between the results obtained using the vector anomaly and the total intensity anomaly shows that the magnetic field is determined more accurately, especially in areas of sparse data distribution, when the vector anomaly rather than the total intensity anomaly is used. We suggest a geologically motivated model that basaltic volcanism associated with the backarc rifting occurred after the formation of the caldera, resulting in the formation of the high magnetization belt underneath the silicic caldera. The Hakurei hydrothermal field lies in the intersection of the basaltic volcanism belt and the caldera wall fault, suggesting a mechanism that hot water generated by the heat of the volcanic activity has been spouting out through the caldera wall fault. The deposit apparently extends beyond the low magnetization zone, climbing up the caldera wall. This may indicate that hot water rising from the deep through the alteration zone is transported laterally when it comes near the seafloor along fissures and fractures in the caldera wall.

Description: [1]  Using multiple ScS reverberations we examine mantle reflectivity structure beneath northeast China and the northwest Pacific. We find several upper mantle discontinuities, including a melt layer with a mean thickness of 64 km atop the 410-km discontinuity, present on both sides of the subducting slab near the Nankai trench. The transition zone contains a split 520-km discontinuity in several paths, and tomographic images show stagnant slabs at this depth. We believe this may be slab-related based on experimental work (Saikia, A., Frost, D. J., Rubie, D. C., 2008. Splitting of the 520-kilometer seismic discontinuity and chemical heterogeneity in the mantle. Science 319 (5869), 1515–1518). A negative reflector is found in one path beneath the northeast China craton at a depth of 598 km. Mid-mantle reflectors are found in all of our paths and are present throughout a wide depth range (~750 – 1600 km).

Description: [1]  Three-dimensional P - and S -wave velocity (V P , V S ) models and high-resolution earthquake relocations are determined for the New Madrid Seismic Zone using double-difference local earthquake tomography. The data set consists of arrival times and differential times recorded by the Cooperative New Madrid Seismic Network (CNMSN) from 2000-2007 and the 1989-1992 Portable Array Network and Data Acquisition deployment. Waveform cross-correlation derived differential times for the CNMSN data are also incorporated. The velocity solutions are compatible with previous solutions centered on the active arms of seismicity and cover a broader area including mafic intrusions along the margin of the Reelfoot Rift. Major features include elevated V P and V S associated with the mafic plutons and reduced V P and V S along and southeast of the Axial fault (AF), a major arm of seismicity trending along the rift axis. Low V P extends to a depth of at least 20 km along the portion of the AF that extends south of the Missouri bootheel. A locally high V P /V S anomaly imaged along the central portion of the Reelfoot fault is spatially correlated with a significant change in fault trend and is interpreted as a region containing high pore pressure and/or water-filled microcracks.

Description: [1]  We present a catalog of InSAR constraints on deformation that occurred during earthquake sequences in southern Iran between 1992-2011, and explore the implications on the accommodation of large-scale continental convergence between Saudi Arabia and Eurasia within the Zagros Mountains. The Zagros Mountains, a salt-laden fold-and-thrust-belt involving ~10 km of sedimentary rocks overlying Precambrian basement rocks, have formed as a result of ongoing continental collision since 10-20 Ma that is currently occurring at a rate of ~3 cm/yr. We first demonstrate that there is a biased misfit in earthquake locations in global catalogs that likely results from neglect of 3D velocity structure. Previous work involving two M ~ 6 earthquakes with well-recorded aftershocks has shown that the deformation observed with InSAR may represent triggered slip on faults much shallower than the primary earthquake, which likely occurred within the basement rocks (〉10 km depth). We explore the hypothesis that most of the deformation observed with InSAR spanning earthquake sequences is also due to shallow, triggered slip above a deeper earthquake, effectively doubling the moment release for each event. We quantify the effects that this extra moment release would have on the discrepancy between seismically and geodetically constrained moment rates in the region, finding that even with the extra triggered fault slip, significant aseismic deformation during the interseismic period is necessary to fully explain the convergence between Eurasia and Saudi Arabia.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1531-1543, October 2013. While the area of organic crop production increases at a global scale, the potential interactions between pest management in organic and conventionally managed systems have so far received little attention. Here, we evaluate the landscape-level co-dependence of insecticide-based and natural enemy-based pest management using a simulation model for parasitoid–host interactions in landscapes consisting of conventionally and organically managed fields. In our simulations conventional management consists of broad-spectrum or selective insecticide application, while organic management involves no insecticides. Simulations indicate that insecticide use can easily result in lose–lose scenarios whereby both organically and conventionally managed fields suffer from increased pest loads as compared to a scenario where no insecticides are used, but that under some conditions insecticide use can be compatible with biocontrol. Simulations also suggest that the pathway to achieve the insecticide reduction without triggering additional pest pressure is not straightforward, because increasing the proportion of organically managed fields or reducing the spray frequency in conventional fields can potentially give rise to dramatic increases in pest load. The disruptive effect of insecticide use, however, can be mitigated by spatially clustering organic fields and using selective insecticides, although the effectiveness of this mitigation depends on the behavioral traits of the biocontrol agents. Poorly dispersing parasitoids and parasitoids with high attack rates required a lower amount of organically managed fields for effective pest suppression. Our findings show that the transition from a landscape dominated by conventionally managed crops to organic management has potential pitfalls; intermediate levels of organic management may lead to higher pest burdens than either low or high adoption of organic management.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1603-1618, October 2013. The regional spatial scale is a vital linkage for the informed extrapolation of results from local to continental scales to address broad-scale environmental problems. Among-region variation in ecosystem state is commonly accounted for by using a regionalization framework, such as an ecoregion classification. Rarely have alternative regionalization frameworks been tested for variables measuring ecosystem state, nor have the underlying relationships with the variables that are used to define them been assessed. In this study, we asked two questions: (1) How much among-region variation is there for ecosystems and does it differ by regionalization framework? (2) What are the likely causes of this among-region variation? We present a case study using a large data set of lake water chemistry, uni- and multi-scaled hydrogeomorphic and anthropogenic driver variables that likely influence lake chemistry at the subcontinental scale, and seven existing regionalization frameworks. We used multilevel models to quantify and explain within- and among-region variation in lake water chemistry. Our models account for local driver variables of ecosystem variation within regions, differences in regional mean ecosystem state (i.e., random intercepts in multilevel models), and differences in relationships between local drivers and ecosystem state by region (i.e., random slopes in multilevel models). Using one of the best performing regionalization frameworks (Ecological Drainage Units), we found that for lake phosphorus and alkalinity: (1) a majority of all the variation in water chemistry among the studied lakes occurred among regions, (2) very few regional-scale landscape driver variables were required to explain among-region variation in lake water chemistry, (3) a much higher proportion of the total variation among lakes was explained at the regional scale than at the local scale, and (4) some relationships between local-scale driver variables and lake water chemistry varied by region. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the regional spatial scale for broad-scale research and ecosystem management and conservation. Our quantitative approach can be easily applied to other response variables, ecosystem types, geographic areas, and spatial extents to inform ecosystem responses to global environmental stressors.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1544-1553, October 2013. Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15–25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in ∼80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1659-1676, October 2013. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the life cycle of marine exploited fish with a spatial perspective. The application was developed for a nursery-dependent fish species, the common sole (Solea solea), on the Eastern Channel population (Western Europe). The approach combined processes of different natures and various sources of observations within an integrated framework for life-cycle modeling: (1) outputs of an individual-based model for larval drift and survival that provided yearly estimates of the dispersion and mortality of eggs and larvae, from spawning grounds to settlement in several coastal nurseries; (2) a habitat suitability model, based on juvenile trawl surveys coupled with a geographic information system, to estimate juvenile densities and surface areas of suitable juvenile habitat in each nursery sector; (3) a statistical catch-at-age model for the estimation of the numbers-at-age and the fishing mortality on subadults and adults. The approach provided estimates of hidden variables and parameters of key biological significance. A simulation approach provided insight to the robustness of the approach when only weak data are available. Estimates of spawning biomass, fishing mortality, and recruitment were close to the estimations derived from stock-assessment working groups. In addition, the model quantified mortality along the life cycle, and estimated site-specific density-dependent mortalities between settled larvae and age-0 juveniles in each nursery ground. This provided a better understanding of the productivity and the specific contribution of each nursery ground toward recruitment and population renewal. Perspectives include further development of the modeling framework on the common sole and applications to other fish species to disentangle the effects of multiple interacting stress factors (e.g., estuarine and coastal nursery habitat degradation, fishing pressure) on population renewal and to develop risk analysis in the context of marine spatial planning for sustainable management of fish resources.

Description: [1]  The identification and evaluation of trigger mechanisms for volcano flank instabilities and/or collapse represent a key issue for risk assessment in densely populated volcanic areas, as well as in long distance settings, particularly in case of island or coastal volcanoes. Here, we address quantitatively the effects of external (seismic) and inner (magmatic) forcing on the stress-strain state associated to flank instabilities at Mt. Etna (Sicily, southern Italy) by means of a 2-D Finite-Difference-Method numerical modelling. Modelled seismic actions include strong near-field, strong far-field and low-magnitude near-field earthquakes. Magmatic actions consider the inner presssure changes induced by energetic lava fountains in the summit crater area, sub-vertical and oblique dyke ascent below the summit area. Model results are validated in light of available monitoring data and recent eruptive activity. Numerical results show that the main strain effects are produced by high-magnitude near-field earthquakes (expected return time of ~10 3  yrs), and by vertical uprise of a magma dyke below the volcano summit area. Maximum displacements in the order of tens of centimetres may involve the summit area, up to some 10 6  m 3 /m over some km laterally. Stress releases up to 10 7  Pa may affect a limited portion of the magmatic conduit, thus favouring major effusive flank eruptions. Major catastrophic events, such as volcano flank collapse, should not be expected by applying, either individually or combined, the aforementioned actions.

Description: [1]  Seismicity closely related to hydrological impacts has been observed in several locations worldwide; particularly in intraplate areas where tectonic stressing rates are small. The triggering mechanism is usually explained by a poroelastic response of the seismogenic crust to surface water flux, leading to pore pressure changes at depth. To explain the earthquake triggering in response of those small stress changes, however, the crust has to be near a critical state in which other transient processes might be significant. One of the prominent examples is the Mt. Hochstaufen in SW Germany, where seismicity is known to vary seasonally. A previous analysis showed that the seismicity in 2002 was highly correlated with model forecasts based on fluid diffusion and rate- and state-dependent frictional nucleation. Here we revisit this case by accounting additionally for poroelastic effects, as well as for thermoelastic and tidal stresses. We also test whether the model can explain the observations of the subsequent eight years between 2003 and 2010. Our analysis confirms that rainfall is the dominant driving force in this region. The model not only fits the year 2002 activity very well, but provides with the same parameters a reasonable fit to the subsequent period, with a probability gain of about 4 per event in comparison to a time-independent Poisson model.

Description: ABSTRACT [1]  The absolute magnitude of stress in the crust and the shear strength of faults are poorly known, yet fundamental quantities, in lithospheric dynamics. While stress magnitude cannot be measured directly, deviatoric stress state can be inferred indirectly from focal mechanism solutions collected before and after an earthquake. We extend a standard stress inversion for normalized stresses to invert for the 3D spatial distribution of absolute deviatoric stress and variation of fault strength with depth using focal mechanism solutions and coseismic stress changes produced by large earthquakes. We apply the method to the 2011 M9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake. The northern Japan forearc crust between 5 and 15 km depth appears to be weak with fault strength of 40–90 MPa, consistent with a coefficient of friction of 0.2-0.5. The M9 Tohoku-oki coseismic stress change was large enough, relative to the ambient stress, to rotate the principal stress directions typically ~20° in the upper 20 km of the crust. The data from Japan require a heterogeneous ambient deviatoric stress field with short wavelength (~20-50 km) fluctions in principal stress orientations.

Description: [1]  We review marine heat flow data along the Nankai Trough and show that observations 〉 30 km seaward of the deformation front are 20% below conductive predictions (129–94 mW m -2 ) but consistent with the global heat flow average for oceanic crust of the same age (16-28 Ma). Heat flow values  〈  30 km seaward of the deformation front are generally 20% higher than conductive predictions. This heat flow pattern is consistent with the advection of heat by fluid flow in the subducting oceanic crust and explains both the high heat flux in the vicinity of the trench, 〉 200 and 〉 140 mW m -2 , and steep landward declines to values of approximately 60 mW m -2 over distances of 65 and 50 km along the Muroto and Kumano transects, respectively. Along the Ashizuri transect the lack of heat flow data preclude a definitive interpretation. We conclude that fluid flow in the subducting oceanic crust leads to temperatures that are generally 25 ° C higher near the toe of the margin wedge and 50 - 100 ° C lower near the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone than estimated by purely conductive models.

Description: [1]  We investigate whether predictions of mantle structure from tectonic reconstructions are in agreement with a detailed tomographic image of seismic P-wave velocity structure under the Caribbean region. In the upper mantle, positive seismic anomalies are imaged under the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. These anomalies are interpreted as remnants of Atlantic lithosphere subduction and confirm tectonic reconstructions that suggest at least 1100 km of convergence at the Lesser Antilles island arc during the past ~45 Myr. The imaged Lesser-Antilles slab consists of a northern and southern anomaly, separated by a low velocity anomaly across most of the upper mantle, which we interpret as the subducted North America-South America plate boundary. The southern edge of the imaged Lesser Antilles slab agrees with vertical tearing of South America lithosphere. The northern Lesser Antilles slab is continuous with the Puerto Rico slab along the northeastern plate boundary. This results in an amphitheatre-shaped slab and it is interpreted as westward subducting North America lithosphere that remained attached to the surface along the northeastern boundary of the Caribbean plate. At the Muertos Trough, however, material is imaged until a depth of only 100 km, suggesting a small amount of subduction. The location and length of the imaged South Caribbean slab agrees with proposed subduction of Caribbean lithosphere under the northern South America plate. An anomaly related to proposed Oligocene subduction at the Nicaragua rise is absent in the tomographic model. Beneath Panama, a subduction window exists across the upper mantle, which is related to the cessation of subduction of the Nazca plate under Panama since 9.5 Ma and possibly the preceding subduction of the extinct Cocos-Nazca spreading center. In the lower mantle two large anomaly patterns are imaged. The westernmost anomaly agrees with the subduction of Farallon lithosphere. The second lower mantle anomaly is found east of the Farallon anomaly and is interpreted as a remnant of the late Mesozoic subduction of North and South America oceanic lithosphere at the Greater Antilles, Aves ridge and Leeward Antilles. The imaged mantle structure does not allow us to discriminate between an ‘Intra-Americas’ origin and a ‘Pacific origin’ of the Caribbean plate.

Description: [1]  We have measured interseismic deformation across the Ashkabad strike-slip fault using 13 Envisat interferograms covering a total effective timespan of ~30 years. Atmospheric contributions to phase delay are significant and variable due to the close proximity of the Caspian Sea. In order to retrieve the pattern of strain accumulation, we show it is necessary to use data from Envisat's Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) instrument, as well numerical weather model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), to correct interferograms for differences in water vapour and atmospheric pressure respectively. This has enabled us to robustly estimate the slip rate and locking depth for the Ashkabad fault using a simple elastic dislocation model. Our data are consistent with a slip rate of 5–12 mm/yr below a locking depth of 5.5–17 km for the Ashkabad fault, and synthetic tests support the magnitude of the uncertainties on these estimates. Our estimate of slip rate is 1.25–6 times higher than some previous geodetic estimates, with implications for both seismic hazard and regional tectonics, in particular supporting fast relative motion between the South Caspian Block and Eurasia. This result reinforces the importance of correcting for atmospheric contributions to interferometric phase for small strain measurements. We also attempt to validate a recent method for atmospheric correction based on ECMWF ERA-Interim model outputs alone and find that this technique does not work satisfactorily for this region when compared to the independent MERIS estimates.

Description: [1]  The seafloor within the Perth Abyssal Plain (PAP), offshore Western Australia, is the only section of crust that directly records the early spreading history between India and Australia during the Mesozoic breakup of Gondwana. However, this early spreading has been poorly constrained due to an absence of data, including marine magnetic anomalies and data constraining the crustal nature of key tectonic features. Here, we present new magnetic anomaly data from the PAP that shows that the crust in the western part of the basin was part of the Indian Plate – the conjugate flank to the oceanic crust immediately offshore the Perth margin, Australia. We identify a sequence of M2 and older anomalies in the west PAP within crust that initially moved with the Indian Plate, formed at intermediate half-spreading rates (35 mm/yr) consistent with the conjugate sequence on the Australian Plate. More speculatively, we reinterpret the youngest anomalies in the east PAP, finding that the M0-age crust initially formed on the Indian Plate was transferred to the Australian Plate by a westward jump or propagation of the spreading ridge shortly after M0 time. Samples dredged from the Gulden Draak and Batavia Knolls (at the western edge of the PAP) reveal that these bathymetric features are continental fragments rather than igneous plateaus related to Broken Ridge. These microcontinents rifted away from Australia with Greater India during initial breakup at ~130 Ma, then rifted from India following the cessation of spreading in the PAP (~101-103 Ma).

Description: [1]  We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posteriori probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic deformation solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods, shares the same posterior PDF with them, while overcoming difficulties with convergence when large numbers of low-quality data are used and greatly improving the convergence rate using optimization procedures. A highly-efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum of a posterior PDF (" mode " in statistics) in the first step. The second step inversion approaches the " true" solution further using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique with positivity constraints, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step using the same procedure of the second step, with fixed fault geometry parameters. [2]  We first design a fault model with 45°-dip angle and oblique slip, and produce corresponding synthetic InSAR datasets to validate the reliability and efficiency of the new method. We then apply this method to InSAR data inversion for the coseismic slip-distribution of the April 14, 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China earthquake. Our preferred slip model is composed of three segments with most of the slip occurring within 15 km depth and the maximum slip reaches 1.38 m at the surface. The seismic moment released is estimated to be 2.32e + 19 Nm, consistent with the seismic estimate of 2.50e + 19 Nm.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. The process of disease transmission is determined by the interaction of host susceptibility and exposure to parasite infectious stages. Host behavior is an important determinant of the likelihood of exposure to infectious stages, but is difficult to measure and often assumed to be homogenous in models of disease spread. We evaluated the importance of precisely defining host contact when using networks that estimate exposure and predict infection prevalence in a replicated, empirical system. In particular, we hypothesized that infection patterns would be predicted only by a contact network that is defined according to host behavior and parasite life-cycle. Two competing host contact criteria were used to construct networks defined by parasite life-cycle and social contacts. First, parasite defined contacts were based on shared space with a time-delay corresponding to the environmental development time of nematode parasites with a direct fecal-oral life-cycle. Second, social contacts were defined by shared space in the same time period. To quantify the competing networks of exposure and infection, we sampled natural populations of the eastern chipmunk and infection of their gastro-intestinal helminth community using replicated longitudinal capture-mark-recapture techniques. We predicted that 1) infection with parasites with direct fecal-oral life-cycles would be explained by the time-delay contact network but not the social contact network; 2) infection with parasites with trophic life-cycles (via a mobile intermediate host, thus, spatially decoupling transmission from host contact) would not be explained by either contact network. The prevalence of fecal-oral life-cycle nematode parasites was strongly correlated to the number and strength of network connections from the parasite-defined network (including the time-delay), while the prevalence of trophic life-cycle parasites was not correlated with any network metrics. We concluded that incorporating the parasite life-cycle, relative to the way that exposure is measured, is key to inferring transmission and can be empirically quantified using network techniques. In addition, appropriately defining and measuring contacts according the life-history of the parasite and relevant behaviors of the host is a crucial step in applying network analyses to empirical systems.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 766-776, June 2013. Autogenic ecosystem engineers are critically important parts of many marine and estuarine systems because of their substantial effect on ecosystem services. Oysters are of particular importance because of their capacity to modify coastal and estuarine habitats and the highly degraded status of their habitats worldwide. However, models to predict dynamics of ecosystem engineers have not previously included the effects of exploitation. We developed a linked population and habitat model for autogenic ecosystem engineers undergoing exploitation. We parameterized the model to represent eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in upper Chesapeake Bay by selecting sets of parameter values that matched observed rates of change in abundance and habitat. We used the model to evaluate the effects of a range of management and restoration options including sustainability of historical fishing pressure, effectiveness of a newly enacted sanctuary program, and relative performance of two restoration approaches. In general, autogenic ecosystem engineers are expected to be substantially less resilient to fishing than an equivalent species that does not rely on itself for habitat. Historical fishing mortality rates in upper Chesapeake Bay for oysters were above the levels that would lead to extirpation. Reductions in fishing or closure of the fishery were projected to lead to long-term increases in abundance and habitat. For fisheries to become sustainable outside of sanctuaries, a substantial larval subsidy would be required from oysters within sanctuaries. Restoration efforts using high-relief reefs were predicted to allow recovery within a shorter period of time than low-relief reefs. Models such as ours, that allow for feedbacks between population and habitat dynamics, can be effective tools for guiding management and restoration of autogenic ecosystem engineers.

Description: [1]  We conducted total magnetic field and Bouguer gravity measurements to investigate the shallow structure beneath the summit caldera of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. Two significant and distinctive magnetic anomalies were identified within the caldera. One is interpreted to be associated with a long-lived pre-historic eruptive centre, the Observatory vent, located ~1 km east of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. The second magnetic anomaly corresponds to a set of eruptive fissures that strike northeast from Halema‘uma‘u Crater, suggesting this is an important transport pathway for magma. The Bouguer gravity data were inverted to produce 3D models of density contrasts in the upper 2 km beneath Kīlauea. The models detect 3.0 km 3 of material, denser than 2800 kg m -3 , beneath the caldera that may represent an intrusive complex centred northeast of Halema‘uma‘u. Recent temporal gravity studies indicate continual addition of mass beneath the caldera during 1975–2008 centred west of Halema‘uma‘u and suggest this is due to filling of void space. The growth of a large intrusive complex, apparent cyclical caldera formation, and continual mass addition without inflation, however, can also be explained by extensional rifting caused by the continual southward movement of Kīlauea's unstable south flank.

Description: [1]  The 2006-2007 doublet of M W  〉 8 earthquakes in the Kuril subduction zone caused postseismic transient motion in the asthenosphere, which we observed on the Kuril GPS Array in 2007–2011. Here we show that the Maxwell asthenospheric viscosity that best fits the geodetic data increased by nearly an order of magnitude over the interval of four years, from 2 × 10 17 to 1 × 10 18  Pa s. These effective values of viscosity can be explained by a power-law rheology for which strain rate is proportional to stress raised to a power n  〉 1. The apparent change in viscosity can also be caused by other factors such as coupling between afterslip and viscoelastic flow. The open and intriguing question in connection with postseismic data after the Kuril earthquake doublet is the magnitude of the long-term asthenospheric viscosity, which shall be revealed by continued observations. An asthenosphere with viscosity of about 1 × 10 19  Pa s is favored by the postseismic deformation still observed several decades after the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska M W ~9 earthquakes. However, postseismic deformation associated with the 1952 southern Kamchatka M W ~9 earthquake currently is not observed in the northern Kurils, an indication that the long-term asthenospheric viscosity in the Kurils is lower than in Chile and Alaska.

Description: [1]  The region of central Chile offers a unique opportunity to study the links between the subducting Juan Fernandez Ridge, the flat slab, the Double Seismic Zone (DSZ) and the absence of modern volcanism. Here, we report the presence and characteristics of the first observed DSZ within the intermediate-depth Nazca slab using two temporary seismic catalogues (OVA99 and CHARSME). The lower plane of seismicity (LP) is located 20–25 km below the upper plane (UP), begins at 50 km depth and merges with the lower plane at 120 km depth, where the slab becomes horizontal. Focal mechanism analysis and stress tensor calculations indicate that the slab's state of stress is dominantly controlled by plate convergence and overriding crust thickness: Above 60–70 km depth, the slab is in horizontal compression, and below, it is in horizontal extension, parallel to plate convergence, which can be accounted for by vertical loading of the overriding lithosphere. Focal mechanisms below 60–70 km depth are strongly correlated with offshore outer rise bend faults, suggesting the reactivation of pre-existing faults below this depth. The large interplane distances for all Nazca DSZs can be related to the slab's unusually cold thermal structure with respect to its age. Since LPs globally seem to mimic mantle mineral dehydration paths, we suggest that fluid migration and dehydration embrittlement provide the mechanism necessary to weaken the rock and that the stress field determines the direction of rupture.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. A simple population model is developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, leads to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We apply this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of two. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed but geographically isolated populations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Long-term fire exclusion has altered ecological function in many forested ecosystems in North America. The invasion of fire-sensitive tree species into formerly pyrogenic upland forests in the southeastern USA has resulted in dramatic shifts in surface fuels that have been hypothesized to cause reductions in plant community flammability. The mechanism for the reduced flammability or "mesophication" has lacked empirical study. Here we evaluate a potential mechanism of reduced flammability by quantifying moisture retention (response time and initial moisture capacity) of foliar litter beds from 17 southeastern tree species spanning a wide range of fire tolerance. K-means cluster analysis resulted in four species groups: a rapidly drying cluster of eight species; a five species group that absorbed little water, but desorbed slowly; a two species group that absorbed substantial moisture but desorbed rapidly; and a two species cluster that absorbed substantial moisture and dried slowly. Fire-sensitive species were segregated into the slow moisture loss clusters while fire-tolerant species tended to cluster in the rapid drying groups. Principal Components Analysis indicated that several leaf characteristics correlated with absorption capacity and drying rates. Thin-leaved species with high surface area:volume absorbed the greatest moisture content, while those with large, curling leaves had the fastest drying rates. The dramatic shifts in litter fuels as a result of invasion by fire-sensitive species generate a positive feedback that reduce the windows of ignition, thereby facilitating the survival, persistence, and continued invasion of fire-sensitive species in the uplands of the southeastern USA.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 936-943, June 2013. A typical way to quantify aboveground carbon in forests is to measure tree diameters and use species-specific allometric equations to estimate biomass and carbon stocks. Using “citizen scientists” to collect data that are usually time-consuming and labor-intensive can play a valuable role in ecological research. However, data validation, such as establishing the sampling error in volunteer measurements, is a crucial, but little studied, part of utilizing citizen science data. The aims of this study were to (1) evaluate the quality of tree diameter and height measurements carried out by volunteers compared to expert scientists and (2) estimate how sensitive carbon stock estimates are to these measurement sampling errors. Using all diameter data measured with a diameter tape, the volunteer mean sampling error (difference between repeated measurements of the same stem) was 9.9 mm, and the expert sampling error was 1.8 mm. Excluding those sampling errors 〉1 cm, the mean sampling errors were 2.3 mm (volunteers) and 1.4 mm (experts) (this excluded 14% [volunteer] and 3% [expert] of the data). The sampling error in diameter measurements had a small effect on the biomass estimates of the plots: a volunteer (expert) diameter sampling error of 2.3 mm (1.4 mm) translated into 1.7% (0.9%) change in the biomass estimates calculated from species-specific allometric equations based upon diameter. Height sampling error had a dependent relationship with tree height. Including height measurements in biomass calculations compounded the sampling error markedly; the impact of volunteer sampling error on biomass estimates was ±15%, and the expert range was ±9%. Using dendrometer bands, used to measure growth rates, we calculated that the volunteer (vs. expert) sampling error was 0.6 mm (vs. 0.3 mm), which is equivalent to a difference in carbon storage of ±0.011 kg C/yr (vs. ±0.002 kg C/yr) per stem. Using a citizen science model for monitoring carbon stocks not only has benefits in educating and engaging the public in science, but as demonstrated here, can also provide accurate estimates of biomass or forest carbon stocks.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 710-725, June 2013. Decision-makers charged with implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM) rely on scientists to predict the consequences of decisions relating to multiple, potentially conflicting, objectives. Such predictions are inherently uncertain, and this can be a barrier to decision-making. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources requires managers of Southern Ocean fisheries to sustain the productivity of target stocks, the health and resilience of the ecosystem, and the performance of the fisheries themselves. The managers of the Antarctic krill fishery in the Scotia Sea and southern Drake Passage have requested advice on candidate management measures consisting of a regional catch limit and options for subdividing this among smaller areas. We developed a spatially resolved model that simulates krill–predator–fishery interactions and reproduces a plausible representation of past dynamics. We worked with experts and stakeholders to identify (1) key uncertainties affecting our ability to predict ecosystem state; (2) illustrative reference points that represent the management objectives; and (3) a clear and simple way of conveying our results to decision-makers. We developed four scenarios that bracket the key uncertainties and evaluated candidate management measures in each of these scenarios using multiple stochastic simulations. The model emphasizes uncertainty and simulates multiple ecosystem components relating to diverse objectives. We summarize the potentially complex results as estimates of the risk that each illustrative objective will not be achieved (i.e., of the state being outside the range specified by the reference point). This approach allows direct comparisons between objectives. It also demonstrates that a candid appraisal of uncertainty, in the form of risk estimates, can be an aid, rather than a barrier, to understanding and using ecosystem model predictions. Management measures that reduce coastal fishing, relative to oceanic fishing, apparently reduce risks to both the fishery and the ecosystem. However, alternative reference points could alter the perceived risks, so further stakeholder involvement is needed to identify risk metrics that appropriately represent their objectives.

Description: [1]  Among the different types of waves embedded in seismic noise, body waves present appealing properties but are still challenging to extract. Here we first validate recent improvements in numerical modeling of microseismic compressional ( P ) body waves and then show how this tool allows fast detection and location of their sources. We compute sources at ~ 0.2 Hz within typical P teleseismic distances (30-90 degrees) from the South California Seismic Network (SCSN) and analyze the most significant discrete sources. The locations and relative strengths of the computed sources are validated by the good agreement with beam-forming analysis. These ~75 noise sources exhibit a highly heterogeneous distribution, and cluster along the usual storm tracks in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. They are mostly induced in the open ocean, at or near water depths of 2800 and 5600 km, most likely within storms or where ocean waves propagating as swell meet another swell or wind sea. We then emphasize two particularly strong storms to describe how they generate noise sources in their wake. We also use these two specific noise bursts to illustrate the differences between microseismic body- and surface-waves in terms of source distribution and resulting recordable ground motion. The different patterns between body- and surface-waves result from distinctive amplification of ocean wave-induced pressure perturbation and different seismic attenuation. Our study demonstrates the potential of numerical modeling to provide fast and accurate constraints on where and when to expect microseismic body waves, with implications for seismic imaging and climate studies.

Description: [1]  Earthquakes that rupture across steps between faults can be larger than those predicted from individual fault lengths, making understanding multifault events critical to assessing earthquake hazard. Empirical data from earthquake surface ruptures suggest that the distances between faults that rupture together can range from 〈1 km to 5 km. Dynamic and quasi-static models of planar faults determine similar distances. However, studies of interactions between realistic, 3D non-planar faults are few. A general comparison of quasi-static stress perturbations and triggering potentials with mechanical models incorporating either planar or non-planar faults highlight the sensitivity of planar fault models to model parameters and reveal no clear relationship between mean fault slip and triggering potential. More specifically, planar fault models predict triggering across a 3 km extensional step, while models incorporating non-planar faults indicate that a connecting fault is necessary to transfer slip through a 3 km step along the 1992 Landers, California earthquake rupture. The mechanical approach taken captures the stress changes as well as the total stress following fault slip, improving the criterion used to determine triggered failure potential. This underscores the need for additional constraint on fault strength and cohesion. The focus on complex fault geometry restricts analyses to the quasi-static realm, limiting the application of results to fault interactions over the short distances and slow rupture velocities for which the quasi-static stress field is relevant or approximates the dynamic stress field.

Description: [1]  Batch and flow-through experiments were performed on quartz-feldspar granular aggregates and sandstone samples to investigate time-dependent effects of fluid-rock interactions on fluid and rock conductivity, respectively. The experiments were conducted at temperatures up to 164, at confining and pore pressures up to 10 and 5 MPa, respectively, and for up to 136 days. It showed that changes in rock conductivity were unequivocally related to changes in pore fluid conductivity. It is inferred that these changes were dependent on kinetically controlled dissolution reactions between the mineral grains and the fluid. The time-dependent signature of rock conductivity implied a detectable transition from initial dissolution towards some state of equilibrium. The response of rock conductivity to temperature changes followed an Arrhenius-type behavior. An exploratory kinetic evaluation of the conductivity data for sandstone samples yielded an apparent activation energy of approximately 32 kJ/mol. A concurrent chemical fluid analysis showed that this is an integrated value over all reactions occurring in parallel within a sample. These reactions namely concern silica and silicate dissolutionbut also the dissolution of accessory salt minerals. It is concluded that measuring the evolution of rock conductivity in combination with chemical pore fluid analysis constitutes a powerful and quantitative tool for monitoring time-dependent changesin pore fluid chemistry and thus fluid-rock interactions in real time.

Description: [1]  We describe a multi-parameter experiment at Erebus volcano, Antarctica, employing Doppler radar, video, acoustic, and seismic observations to estimate the detailed energy budget of large (up to 40-m-diameter) bubble bursts from a persistent phonolite lava lake. These explosions are readily studied from the crater rim at ranges of less than 500 m, and present an ideal opportunity to constrain the dynamics and mechanism of magmatic bubble bursts that can drive Strombolian and Hawaiian eruptions. We estimate the energy budget of the first second of a typical Erebus explosion as a function of time and energy type, and constrain gas pressures and forces using an analytic model for the expansion of a gas bubble above a conduit that incorporates conduit geometry and magma and gas parameters. The model, consistent with video and radar observations, invokes a spherical bulging surface with a base diameter equal to that of the lava lake. The model has no ad hoc free parameters, and geometrical calculations predict zenith height, velocity and acceleration during shell expansion. During explosions, the energy contained in hot over-pressured gas bubbles is freed and partitioned into other energy types, where by far the greatest non-thermal energy component is the kinetic and gravitational potential energy of the accelerated magma shell (〉10 9 J). Seismic source energy created by explosions is estimated from radar measurements and is consistent with source energy determined from seismic observations. For the generation of the infrasonic signal, a dual mechanism incorporating a terminally disrupted slug is proposed, which clarifies previous models and provides good fits to observed infrasonic pressures. A new and straightforward method is presented for determining gas volumes from slug explosions at volcanoes from remote infrasound recordings.

Description: [1]  We explore the application of GPS data to earthquake early warning and investigate whether the co-seismic ground deformation can be used to provide fast and reliable magnitude estimations and ground shaking predictions. We use an algorithm to extract the permanent static offset from GPS displacement time series and invert for the slip distribution on the fault plane, which is discretized into a small number of rectangular patches. We developed a completely “self-adapting” strategy in which the initial fault plane model is built based on a quick, approximate magnitude estimation, and is then allowed to increase in size based on the evolutionary magnitude estimation resulting from the slip inversion. Two main early warning outputs are delivered in real-time: magnitude and the along-strike extent of the rupture area. These are finally used to predict the expected ground shaking due to the finite source. We tested the proposed strategy by simulating real-time environments for three earthquakes. For the Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake our algorithm provides the first magnitude estimate of 8.2 at 39 sec after the origin time, and then gradually increases to 8.9 at 120 sec. The estimated rupture length remains constant from the outset at ~360 km. For the Mw 8.3, 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake the initial magnitude estimate is 8.5 at 24 sec and drops to 8.2 at 40 sec with a rupture length of 290 km. Finally, for the Mw 7.2, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake the magnitude estimate is 7.0 from the outset with a rupture length of 140 km. The accuracy of the ground shaking prediction using the GPS-based magnitude and finite extent is significantly better than existing seismology-based point source approaches. This approach would also facilitate more rapid tsunami warnings

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Understanding tree growth as a function of tree size is important for a multitude of ecological and management applications. Determining what limits growth is of central interest, and forest inventory permanent plots are an abundant source of long-term information but are highly complex. Observation error and multiple sources of shared variation (spatial plot effects, temporal repeated measures, and a mosaic of sampling intervals) make these data challenging to use for growth estimation. We account for these complexities and incorporate potential limiting factors (tree size, competition, and resource supply) into a hierarchical state-space model. We estimate the diameter growth of white fir Abies concolor in the Sierra Nevada of California from forest inventory data, showing that estimating such a model is feasible in a Bayesian framework using readily available modeling tools. In this forest, white fir growth depends strongly on tree size, total plot basal area, and unexplained variation between individual trees. Plot-level resource supply variables (reflecting light, water, and nutrient availability) do not have a strong impact on inventory-size trees. This approach can be applied to many permanent forest plots, leading to greater ecological insights on tree growth.

Description: ABSTRACT [1]  Analysis of Lake Bonneville shorelines using LIDAR digital elevation data challenges accepted models of Wasatch fault deformation since the late Pleistocene. While footwall deformation of the Weber segment of the Wasatch fault is consistent with back-rotation of the footwall block and greatest displacement rate towards the center of the segment, shorelines along the footwall of the Salt Lake City segment decrease in elevation towards the interior and are highest at the segment boundaries, an opposite pattern of footwall deformation than predicted for boundaries arresting or strongly inhibiting displacement during earthquakes. The spatial pattern of footwall rebound implies that some of the proposed persistent fault segment boundaries do not stop earthquake ruptures that originate on adjacent fault segments, nor constrain ruptures initiated within the Salt Lake City segment. Net vertical fault displacement at the boundary between the Salt Lake and Provo segments is 16—20 m over the past 16.3—18.5 ka, corresponding to a vertical displacement rate of 0.8—1.2 mm/yr, a net fault slip rate of 2.0—2.8 mm/yr and horizontal extension rate of 1.8—2.6 mm/yr on the 25 o west-southwest dipping fault that forms the southern Salt Lake City segment boundary. Shoreline analysis suggests isostatic rebound caused by a drop in lake level was concentrated during a relatively short (~2000 yr) time period following the Bonneville flood at ~16 ka. LIDAR-derived topography in conjunction with robust geomorphic datums improves our ability to map deformation associated with lithospheric flexure and faulting while demonstrating the limitation of lacustrine shorelines in this type of analysis.

Description: [1]  We use recent results on statistical analysis of seismicity to present a robust method for comprehensive detection and analysis of earthquake clusters. The method is based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain. The method is applied to a 1981–2011 relocated seismicity catalog of southern California having 111,981 events with magnitudes m  ≥ 2, and corresponding synthetic catalogs produced by the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. Analysis of the ETAS model demonstrates that the cluster detection results are accurate and stable with respect to (i) three numerical parameters of the method, (ii) variations of the minimal reported magnitude, (iii) catalog incompleteness, and (iv) location errors. Application of the method to the observed catalog separates the 111,981 examined earthquakes into 41,393 statistically significant clusters comprised of foreshocks , mainshocks and aftershocks . The results reproduce the essential known statistical properties of earthquake clusters, which provide overall support for the proposed technique. In addition, systematic analysis with our method allows us to detect several new features of seismicity that include (i) existence of a significant population of single-event clusters ; (ii) existence of foreshock activity in natural seismicity that exceeds expectation based on the ETAS model; and (iii) dependence of all cluster properties, except area, on the magnitude difference of events from mainshocks but not on their absolute values. The classification of detected clusters into several major types, generally corresponding to singles, burst-like and swarm-like sequences, and correlations between different cluster types and geographic locations is addressed in a companion paper.

Description: [1]  For the first time, we report the amplitude variation with angle (AVA) pattern of bottom simulating reflectors (BSRs) beneath fracture-filled gas hydrate deposits when the effective medium is anisotropic. The common depth point (CDP) gathers of two mutually perpendicular multi-channel seismic profiles, located in the vicinity of Site NGHP-01-10, are appropriately processed such that they are fit for AVA analysis. AVA analysis of the BSR shows normal-incidence reflection coefficients of -0.04 to -0.11 with positive gradients of 0.04 to 0.31 indicating class IV pattern. The acoustic properties from isotropic rock physics model predict class III AVA pattern which cannot explain the observed class IV AVA pattern in Krishna-Godavari basin due to the anisotropic nature of fracture-filled gas hydrate deposits. [2]  We modeled the observed class IV AVA of the BSR by assuming that the gas hydrate bearing sediment can be represented by horizontally transversely isotropic (HTI) medium after accounting for anisotropic wave propagation effects on BSR amplitudes. The effective medium properties are estimated using Backus averaging technique and the AVA pattern of BSRs is modeled using the properties of overlying HTI and underlying isotropy/HTI media with or without free gas. Anisotropic AVA analysis of the BSR from the inline seismic profile shows 5–30 % gas hydrate concentration (equivalent to fracture density) and the azimuth of fracture system (fracture orientation) with respect to the seismic profile is close to 45°. Free gas below the base of gas hydrate stability zone is interpreted in the vicinity of fault system (F1).

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Acoustic sensors can be used to estimate species richness for vocal species such as birds. They can continuously and passively record large volumes of data over extended periods. This data must subsequently be analysed to detect the presence of vocal species. Automated analysis of acoustic data for large numbers of species is complex and can be subject to high levels of false positive and false negative results. Manual analysis by experienced surveyors can produce accurate results, however the time and effort required to process even small volumes of data can make manual analysis prohibitive. This study examined the use of sampling methods to reduce the cost of analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data, while retaining high levels of species detection accuracy. Utilising five days of manually analysed acoustic sensor data from four sites, we examined a range of sampling frequencies and methods including random, stratified and biologically informed. We found that randomly selecting 120 one-minute samples from the three hours immediately following dawn over five days of recordings, detected the highest number of species. On average, this method detected 62% of total species from 120 one-minute samples, compared to 34% of total species detected from traditional area search methods. Our results demonstrate that targeted sampling methods can provide an effective means for analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data efficiently and accurately. Development of automated and semi-automated techniques are required to assist in analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data.

Description: [1]  Sequestration of large amounts of CO 2 within deep underground reservoirs has been proposed as a potential approach for reducing atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. A CO 2 sequestration project should address the associated environmental and safety issues and, in this respect, the importance of geomechanics has recently been widely recognized. Geomechanics is even more important when fluid injection is planned in faulted reservoirs. How much CO 2 can be safely injected into multi-compartment reservoirs? Are geomechanical constraints more restrictive than flow-dynamic constraints? These and other questions are addressed in the present study using a three-dimensional Finite Element - Interface Element geomechanical model. We simulate the possible mechanical failure in both the injected formation and the caprock, the fault/thrust reactivation, and the ground surface displacement in a faulted reservoir of the off-shore northern Italy, where seismic surveys provided an accurate characterization of the faulted geological structure. Based on reliable petrophysical/geomechanical properties from well-logs and pore overpressure as predicted by a fluid-dynamic model, the results show that the injection of 1 × 10 6  ton/a of CO 2 may be performed over a few years only. Thereafter part of the injected formation fails by shear stress. A number of parametric scenarios are investigated to address the major uncertainties on the geomechanical response to CO 2 injection. The modeling outcome suggests that shear failure and faults/thrusts reactivation can occur much before attaining the hydraulic fracturing pressure, hence representing two major constraints for a safe and permanent containment.

Description: [1]  We present numerical subduction models to investigate overriding plate deformation at subduction zones. All models show forearc shortening, resulting predominantly from shear stresses at the subduction zone interface and opposite-sense mantle shear stresses at the base of the forearc lithosphere. Models dominated by backarc extension show that it results from trench-normal positive velocity gradients in the mantle below the overriding plate. Such gradients result from toroidal mantle flow induced by slab rollback, with velocities below the leading part of the backarc faster than the overriding plate velocity. The velocity gradients induce basal shear stresses that increase trenchward and cause trenchward overriding plate motion at a velocity ( v OP⊥ ) whose spatial average is below the trench retreat velocity ( v T⊥ ). The combination of basal shear stresses and average v OP⊥ 〈 v T⊥ causes trench-normal deviatoric tension in the backarc and backarc extension. Models dominated by backarc shortening show that it results from a relatively immobile subduction hinge and trenchward overriding plate motion driven by poloidal mantle flow. The poloidal mantle flow is induced by downdip slab sinking and causes the average v OP⊥ 〉 v T⊥ . This results in trench-normal deviatoric compression and shortening in the leading part of the overriding plate as it collides with the subduction hinge. Ultimately, the geodynamic models demonstrate that backarc extension is favored for narrow slabs and near lateral slab edges, and is driven by rollback induced toroidal mantle flow, while backarc shortening is favored for the center of wide slabs, and is driven by poloidal mantle flow resulting from downdip slab motion.

Description: [1]  The Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (GSM), located near the center of East Antarctica, remain one of the most enigmatic mountain ranges on earth. A lack of direct geologic samples renders theirtectonic history almost totally unconstrained. We utilize teleseismic Rayleigh wave data from a two-year deployment of broadband seismic stations across the region to image shear velocity structure and analyze the lithospheric age of the GSM and surrounding regions. We solve for 2-D phase velocitiesand invert these results for 3-D shear velocity structure. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation to improve constraints of crustal thickness and shear velocity structure.Beneath the core of the GSM, we find crustal thickness in excess of 55 km.Mantle shear velocities remain faster than global average models to a depth of approximately 250 km, indicating a thick lithospheric root. Thinner crust and slower upper mantle velocities are observed beneath the Lambert Rift System and the Polar Subglacial Basin.When compared with phase velocity curves corresponding to specific tectonothermal ages elsewhere in the world, average phase velocity results for the GSM are consistent with regions of Archean – Paleoproterozoic origin. Combined with radiometric ages of detrital zircons found offshore, these results indicate a region of old crust that has undergone repeated periods of uplift and erosion, most recently during the Mesozoic breakup of Gondwana. Lower crustal seismic velocities imply a moderately dense lower crust beneath the core of the GSM, but with lower density than suggested by recent gravity models.

Description: [1]  This is a second paper in a study of statistical identification and classification of earthquake clusters using a relocated catalog of 1981–2011 seismicity in southern California and synthetic catalogs produced by the ETAS model. Here we focus on classification of event families – statistically significant clusters comprised of foreshocks , mainshocks and aftershocks – that are detected with the methodology discussed in part I of the study. The families are analyzed using their representation as time oriented tree graphs. The results (i) demonstrate that the clustering associated with the largest earthquakes, m  〉 7, is statistically different from that of small-to-medium earthquakes; (ii) establish the existence of two dominant types of small-to-medium magnitude earthquake families– burst-like and swarm-like sequences – and a variety of intermediate cluster forms obtained as a mixture of the two dominant types; (iii) suggest a simple new quantitative measure for identifying the cluster type based on its topological structure; (iv) demonstrate systematic spatial variability of the cluster characteristics on a scale of tens of kilometers in relation to heat flow and other properties governing the effective viscosity of a region; and (v) establish correlation between the family topological structure and a dozen of metric properties traditionally considered in the literature (number of aftershocks, duration, spatial properties, b -value, parameters of Omori-Utsu and Båth law, etc .). The burst-like clusters likely reflect highly-brittle failures in relatively cold regions, while the swarm-like clusters are likely associated with mixed brittle-ductile failures in regions with relatively high temperature and/or fluid content. The results of this and paper I may be used to develop improved region-specific hazard estimates and earthquake forecasts.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Ecological systems often exhibit resilient states that are maintained through negative feedbacks. In ponderosa pine forests, fire historically represented the negative feedback mechanism that maintained ecosystem resilience; fire exclusion reduced that resilience, predisposing transition to an alternative ecosystem state upon reintroduction of fire. We evaluated the effects of reintroduced frequent wildfire in unlogged, fire-excluded ponderosa pine forest in the Bob Marshall Wilderness, Montana, USA. Initial reintroduction of fire in 2003 reduced tree density and consumed surface fuels, but also stimulated establishment of a dense cohort of lodgepole pine, maintaining a trajectory towards an alternative state. Resumption of a frequent fire regime by a second fire in 2011 restored a low-density forest dominated by large-diameter ponderosa pine by eliminating many regenerating lodgepole pines and by continuing to remove surface fuels and small-diameter lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir that established during the fire suppression era. Our data demonstrate that some unlogged, fire-excluded ponderosa pine forests possess latent resilience to reintroduced fire. A passive model of simply allowing lightning-ignited fires to burn appears to be a viable approach to restoration of such forests.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1396-1409, September 2013. Hydrologic connectivity is critical to the structure, function, and dynamic process of river ecosystems. Dams, road crossings, and water diversions impact connectivity by altering flow regimes, behavioral cues, local geomorphology, and nutrient cycling. This longitudinal fragmentation of river ecosystems also increases genetic and reproductive isolation of aquatic biota such as migratory fishes. The cumulative effects on fish passage of many structures along a river are often substantial, even when individual barriers have negligible impact. Habitat connectivity can be improved through dam removal or other means of fish passage improvement (e.g., ladders, bypasses, culvert improvement). Environmental managers require techniques for comparing alternative fish passage restoration actions at alternative or multiple locations. Herein, we examined a graph-theoretic algorithm for assessing upstream habitat connectivity to investigate both basic and applied fish passage connectivity problems. First, we used hypothetical watershed configurations to assess general alterations to upstream fish passage connectivity with changes in watershed network topology (e.g., linear vs. highly dendritic) and the quantity, location, and passability of each barrier. Our hypothetical network modeling indicates that locations of dams with limited passage efficiency near the watershed outlet create a strong fragmentation signal but are not individually sufficient to disconnect the system. Furthermore, there exists a threshold in the number of dams beyond which connectivity declines precipitously, regardless of watershed topology and dam configuration. Watersheds with highly branched configurations are shown to be less susceptible to disconnection as measured by this metric. Second, we applied the model to prioritize barrier improvement in the mainstem of the Truckee River, Nevada, USA. The Truckee River application demonstrates the ability of the algorithm to address conditions common in fish passage projects including incomplete data, parameter uncertainty, and rapid application. This study demonstrates the utility of a graph-theoretic approach for assessing fish passage connectivity in dendritic river networks assuming full basin utilization for a given species, guild, or community of concern.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. A unique high temporal frequency dataset from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from sub-tropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N2O fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N2O fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N2O emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25 year scenario analysis indicated that N2O losses from irrigated cotton-wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e. frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertiliser application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Mangroves are recognized to possess a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration and storage. Deforestation and conversion of these ecosystems continue to be high and have been predicted to result in significant carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Yet few studies have quantified the carbon stocks or losses associated with conversion of these ecosystems. In this study we quantified the ecosystem carbon stocks of three common mangrove types of the Caribbean as well as that of abandoned shrimp ponds in areas formerly occupied by mangrove; a common land use conversion of mangroves in the world. In the mangroves of the Montecristi Province in Northwest Dominican Republic, we found C stocks ranged from 706 to 1131 Mg/ha. The medium statured mangroves (3-10m ht) had the highest C stocks while the tall (〉10 m ht)) mangroves had the lowest ecosystem carbon storage. Carbon stocks of the low mangrove (shrub) type (

Description: [1]  Paleoseismologic data from the southern Panamint Valley fault (PVF) reveal evidence of at least four surface ruptures during late Holocene time (0.33-0.48 ka, 0.9-3.0 ka, 3.3-3.6 ka and 〉4.1 ka). These paleo-earthquake ages indicate that the southern PVF has ruptured at least once and possibly twice during the ongoing (≤1.5 ka) seismic cluster in the Mojave section of the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). The most recent event (MRE) on the PVF is also similar in age to the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake and the geomorphically youthful MRE on the Death Valley fault. The timing of the three oldest events at our site shows that the PVF ruptured at least once and possibly thrice during the well-defined 2-5 ka seismic lull in the Mojave section of the ECSZ. Interestingly, the 3.3-3.6 ka age of Event 3 overlaps with the 3.3-3.8 ka age of the penultimate (i.e., pre-1872) rupture on the central Owens Valley fault. These new PVF data support the notion that earthquake occurrence in the ECSZ may be spatially and temporally complex, with earthquake clusters occurring in different regions at different times. Coulomb Failure Function modeling of the Panamint Valley and Garlock faults reveals significant stress interactions between these two faults that may influence future earthquake occurrence. Specifically, our models suggest a possible rupture sequence whereby an event on the southern Panamint Valley fault can lead to the potential triggering of an event on the Garlock fault, which in turn could trigger the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault.

Description: [1]  The lithospheric structure of the Indian plate has been investigated using converted wave techniques (P and S receiver functions, RFs) and a novel stacking analysis technique (without using deconvolution) applied to a large seismological dataset from permanent and temporary broadband seismic stations. We observe coherent energy from at least two seismic discontinuities i.e. the crust-mantle (Moho) and lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) in the uppermost mantle. Here, we provide a novel seismic image of the Indian lithosphere showing definitive evidence of its flexure, which is interpreted to be primarily caused by the hard collision at ~55My resulting in the world's highest mountain chain - the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau. Results from geoidal and gravity studies do suggest post-collisional flexuring of the Indian plate; however, the flexure lacks observational constraints. The observed wavelength of the flex is ~1000 km with the thickness of the Indian plate varying from ~70 km to 140 km; such a low value for a continent implies that the Indian plate has been reworked in the past. The plate deepens in the Himalayan region to a depth of ~150 km. Further, the converted phases are interpreted to be resulting from the bottom of the lithosphere. We clearly demonstrate that these are distinct and different from the mid-lithospheric discontinuity. For a large number of stations, the MLD and LAB are clearly separated in depth. Our observations suggest that the Archaean lithosphere is no longer intact and is prone to deformation.

Description: [1]  Studying heat transfer processes in sedimentary crustal rocks requires the correct thermal conductivity of the respective rock type. Often a single value is used for a given rock type, obtained from the measurements on homogenous samples. We demonstrate how variations in rock layering and micro-fractures on the sub-centimeter scale may influence thermal conductivity values at much larger scale. We obtain thermal conductivity images from lab measurements on two different, heterogeneous samples performed with an optical thermal conductivity scanner in two directions. We study different spatial averaging methods for parameterizing the structural heterogeneities and the associated variation of thermal conductivity within the samples. For each of these structural simplifications we set up a numerical model for a numerical heat transfer experiment in order to determine effective thermal conductivity values in two directions. We compare these values and the mean thermal conductivities obtained from different mixing laws and find that, in heterogeneous rocks, effective and mean thermal conductivity may differ substantially. This may cause significant errors in reservoir-scale simulations of heat transfer with associated severe consequences for estimated heat flow and temperatures.

Description: [1]  We analyze teleseismic P-waves from four Mw ≥ 6.5 earthquakes recorded by a petroleum industry survey in Long Beach, California. The survey used a 2-D array with up to 5200 seismometers, 120 m mean spacing, and 7 – 10 km aperture. At frequencies near 1 Hz P-wave travel-times and amplitudes exhibit coherent lateral variations over scales as short as ~400 m, including locally delayed travel-times and increased amplitudes at the crest of the Long Beach anticline. Deeper heterogeneity is indicated by P-wave phase velocities that deviate from reference model predictions for events from southwestern azimuths. We postulate that a sharp northeastward increase in Moho depth from the Inner Borderland (IB) to mainland southern California causes the anomalous phase velocities. Elastic forward modeling finds the travel-times are fit well by a Moho that dips 65° to the northeast and flattens ~10 km southwest of the Newport-Inglewood fault zone. Constraining the felsic thickness of mainland crust to 28 km requires an 8 km thick layer with a P-velocity of 7 km/s beneath it, which could result from basal accretion of former Farallon ocean crust or magmatic underplating during Miocene volcanism. Forward models with a 65° Moho dip predict a P-to-s conversion with a phase velocity of ~5 km/s. Deconvolution of the array's mean P-wave signal isolates a similar later arriving phase. The steep crust thickness transition supports a locally abrupt boundary to IB rifting. Our results highlight the utility of dense short-period arrays for passive imaging at near surface to uppermost mantle depths.

Description: [1]  In this study we present new high-resolution, regional-scale, Vp and Vp/Vs models of the northern-central Apennines along with accurate 3D locations of a large set of local earthquakes. The main velocity anomalies are consistent with the surface geology in the shallow layers and present evidence for fluids stored within the basement at greater depths beneath the extensional belt. The Adria and Tyrrhenian mantle are defined by positive velocity anomalies below 30 km depth, while a low Vp, high Vp/Vs region in between indicates the existence of an hydrated wedge. The results yield new constraints on active processes in the Apennines and more generally envisage the evolution of a post-collisional belt. Velocity anomalies and earthquakes are consistent with a complex system of delamination and sinking of the Adria continental lithosphere, with the peeling of the crust identified by intermediate-depth seismicity. Change of seismicity and structural patterns along the belt indicates that this tectonic process is diachronous and that fluids, released by sunken lithosphere, are stored within the crust conditioning the occurrence of seismicity and the onset of extension.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Recent changes in sanitary policies by European Union (EU) concerning disposal of carcasses of domestic animals and the increase of non-natural mortality factors as illegal poisoning are threatening European vultures. However, the effects of anthropogenic actions in demographic parameters are poorly studied. Using a long-term study (1994-2011) of the threatened Pyrenean bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus population, we assess the variation in the proportion of breeding pairs, egg-laying dates, clutch size, productivity, breeding success and survival following a sharp reduction in food availability in 2005. To test such variations we used Cusum tests (from the field of statistical process control) and multi-event capture-recapture modeling to estimate changes in survival probabilities. We found a delay in laying dates, and a regressive trend in clutch size, productivity, flight rate and survival. The maintenance of specific supplementary feeding stations for bearded vultures likely reduced the negative effects of illegal poisoning and food shortages, which mainly affected sub-adult survival. According to the Cusum test, demographic parameters suffered a significant shift after 2005 coinciding with a reduction in the food supply for the avian scavenger guild. Changes in food availability may have produced changes in demographic parameters and an increase in mortality due to an increased exposure to contaminated food. As a result supplementary feeding used as a precautionary measure can be a useful tool to reduce illegal poisoning and shifts in demographic parameters until precedent food availability scenarios are achieved. This study shows how anthropogenic actions through human health regulations affecting habitat quality can suddenly modify demographic parameters in long-lived raptors. Because in natural processes the variation of biological parameters is usually slow and gradual, and because randomness and environmental stochasticity makes it difficult to detect changes in the absence of a large number of records, the use of Cusum test constitutes a useful tool for studies in the field of ecology and evolution.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Under a rapidly warming climate, a critical management issue in semi-arid forests of western North America is how to increase forest resilience to wildfire. We evaluated relationships between fuel reduction treatments and burn severity in the 2006 Tripod Complex fires which burned over 70,000 ha of mixed conifer forests in the North Cascades range of Washington State and involved 387 past harvest and fuel treatment units. A secondary objective was to investigate other drivers of burn severity including landform, weather, vegetation characteristics, and a recent mountain pine beetle outbreak. We used sequential autoregression (SAR) to evaluate drivers of burn severity, represented by the Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio index, in two study areas that are centered on early progressions of the wildfire complex. Significant predictor variables include treatment type, landform (elevation), fire weather (minimum relative humidity and maximum temperature), and vegetation characteristics including canopy closure, cover type, and mountain pine beetle attack. Recent mountain pine beetle damage was a statistically significant predictor variable with red and mixed classes of beetle attack associated with higher burn severity. Treatment age and size were only weakly correlated with burn severity and may be partly explained by the lack of treatments older than 30 years and low rates of fuel succession in these semi-arid forests. Even during extreme weather, fuel conditions and landform strongly influenced patterns of burn severity. Fuel treatments that included recent prescribed burning of surface fuels were particularly effective at mitigating burn severity. Although surface and canopy fuel treatments are unlikely to substantially reduce the area burned in regional fire years, recent research including this study suggests that they can be an effective management strategy for increasing forest landscape resilience to wildfires.

Description: In this study, rock friction ‘stick-slip’ experiments are used to develop constraints on models of earthquake recurrence. Constant-rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop and as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating earthquakes driven by afterslip, or low-frequency earthquakes loaded by episodic slip. As follows from the previous studies referred to above, experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a non-linear slip-predictable model. The fault's rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence models. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence co-vary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a ‘memory’ of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.

Description: We derive equations for HTI and orthorhombic symmetries to analyze fluid substitution effects in porous fractured media. The derivations are based on the anisotropic Gassmann equation and linear slip theory. We assess the influence of fluid substitution (gas, brine, and oil), on elastic moduli, velocities, anisotropy, and azimuthal amplitude variations. We find that in the direction normal to fractures, P-wave moduli increase as much as 56% and P-wave velocity increases up to 19% for gas-to-brine substitution. For the direction parallel to fractures, P-wave velocity remains almost constant when porosity is low (5%), but can increase up to 4% if porosity is high (25%). Since P-waves in two different directions have different sensitivities to fluids and fractures, the Thomsen's parameters (defined for HTI and orthorhombic symmetries), ε and δ , are sensitive to fluid types and fractures. We also found that δ is sensitive to porosity for liquid saturation, but insensitive to porosity for the case of gas saturation. Gassmann assumes (and as has been observed) that shear modulus does not depend on fluids. And we observe no changes in shear-wave splitting ( γ ) for different fluids. The azimuthal amplitude variation is dependent on fluid types, fractures and porosity. We observe up to 12% increase in azimuthal amplitude variation for low porosity gas sands after brine saturation, and 6% decrease for high porosity gas sands. We find that the percentage changes in gas-to-oil substitution are about half that of the gas-to-brine case. The equations we have derived provide a useful tool to quantitatively evaluate the effects of fluid substitution on seismic anisotropy.

Description: In the central part of Fennoscandia the crust is currently rising, because of the delayed response of the viscous mantle to melting of the Late Pleistocene ice sheet. This process, called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), causes a negative anomaly in the present-day static gravity field as isostatic equilibrium has not been reached yet. Several studies have tried to use this anomaly as a constraint on models of GIA, but the uncertainty in crustal and upper mantle structures has not been fully taken intoaccount. Therefore, our aim is to revisit this using improved crustal models and compensation techniques. We find that, in contrast with other studies, the effect of crustal anomalies on the gravity field cannot be effectively removed, because of uncertainties in the crustal and upper mantle density models. Our second aim is to estimate the effects on geophysical models, which assume isostatic equilibrium, after correcting the observed gravity field with numerical models for GIA. We show that correcting for GIA in geophysical modelling can give changes of several km in the thickness of structural layers of modeled lithosphere, which is a small but significant correction. Correcting the gravity field for GIA prior to assuming isostatic equilibrium and inferring density anomalies might be relevant in other areas with ongoing post-glacial rebound such as North America and the polar regions.

Description: Large variability of earthquake stress drops and scaled energy has been commonly reported in the literature, but it is difficult to assess how much of this variability is caused by underlying physical source processes rather than simply observational uncertainties. Here, we examine a variety of dynamically realistic rupture scenarios for circular and elliptical faults and investigate to what extent the variability in seismically estimated stress drops and scaled energy comes from differences in source geometry, rupture directivity, and rupture speeds. We numerically simulate earthquake source scenarios using a cohesive-zone model with the small-scale yielding limit, where the solution approaches a singular crack model with spontaneous healing of slip. Compared to symmetrical circular source models, asymmetrical models result in larger variability of estimated corner frequencies and scaled energy over the focal sphere. The general behavior of the spherical averages of corner frequencies and scaled energy in the subshear regime extends to the supershear regime, although shear Mach waves generated by the propagation of supershear rupture lead to much higher corner-frequency and scaled-energy estimates locally. Our results suggest that at least a factor of two difference in the spherical average of corner frequencies is expected in observational studies simply from variability in source characteristics almost independent of the actual stress drops, translating into a factor ofeight difference in estimated stress drops. Furthermore, radiation efficiency estimates derived from observed seismic spectra should not be directly interpreted as describing rupture properties unless there are independent constraints on rupture speed and geometry.

Description: Petrophysical properties of rocks and their applicability at larger scale are a challenging topic in Earth sciences. Petrophysical properties of rocks are severely affected by: boundary conditions, rock fabric/microstructure, and tectonics that require a multi-scale approach to be properly defined. Here we: (1) report laboratory measurements of density, porosity, permeability and P-wave velocities at increasing confining pressure conducted on Miocene foredeep sandstones (Frosinone Fm.); (2) compare the laboratory results with larger-scale geophysical investigations; (3) discuss the effect of thrusting on the properties of sandstones. At ambient pressure, laboratory porosity varied from 2.2% to 13.8% and P-wave velocities (Vp) from 1.5 km/s to 2.7 km/s. The P-wave velocity increased with confining pressure, reaching between 3.3 km/s to 4.7 km/s at 100 MPa. In situ Vp profiles, measured using sonic logs, matched the ultrasonic laboratory measurement well. The permeability varied between 1.4 × 10 -15  m 2 to 3.9 × 10 -15  m 2 and was positively correlated with porosity. The porosity and permeability of samples taken at various distances to the Olevano-Antrodoco fault plane progressively decreased with distance while P-wave velocity increased. At about 1 km from the fault plane, the relative variations reached 43%, 65% and 20% for porosity, permeability and P-wave velocity, respectively. This suggests that tectonic loading changed the petrophysical properties inherited from sedimentation and diagenesis. Using field constraints and assuming overburden-related inelastic compaction in the proximity of the fault plane, we conclude that the fault reached the mechanical condition for rupture in compression at differential stress of 64.8 MPa at a depth of 1500 m.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 21, Issue 4, Page 1085-1095, June 2011.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 21, Issue 4, Page 1327-1339, June 2011.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 21, Issue 4, Page 1308-1326, June 2011.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 21, Issue 4, Page 1296-1307, June 2011.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: We discuss an innovation in traveltime tomography that combines wavelet-based, multiscale parameterization and finite-frequency theory to solve two outstanding issues that inevitably arise from uneven source station distributions and from the three-dimensional (3-D) nature of wavefront healing: how to objectively address the intrinsically multiscale nature of data coverage while simultaneously maintain model resolution at each scale level. We apply the new, integrated methodology to investigate 3-D variations of P and S wave speeds (δlnVP and δlnVS) beneath the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen. In particular, we are able to constrain variations in the Poisson's ratio via δln(VP/VS). The formulation is naturally data adaptive, resolving features at each scale only if the required data converge is available. The very first, long-wavelength feature that emerges is a clear anomaly of high δlnV that extends over more than 500 km beyond the northern edge of the Lhasa terrane at places. Farther northward, a strong negative anomaly underlies the region where recent volcanism occurs in northern Tibet. Regions of negative δln(VP/VS) delineate a slab-like, subhorizontal feature concentrated between depths of ∼100–250 km. Such characteristics are consistent with the notion that chemically refractory, and therefore buoyant, mantle lithosphere of the Indian shield (“Greater India”) has advanced subhorizontally northward far beyond the surficial Bangong-Nujiang suture. In the crust, two isolated regions of low δlnV, each extending to depths near 100 km, occur along the Lunggar and the Yadong-Gulu active rifts in southern Tibet. Deep penetrating rifts imply that only a limited amount of horizontal displacement is being accommodated on subvertical structures.

Description: We present results of detailed paleomagnetic investigations on deep-sea cores from sediment drifts located along the Pacific continental margin of the Antarctic Peninsula. High-resolution magnetic measurements on u channel samples provide detailed age models for three cores collected from drift 7, which document an age of 122 ka for the oldest sediments recovered near the drift crest at site SED-07 and a high sedimentation rate (11 cm/kyr) at site SED-12 located close to the Alexander Channel system. Low- and high-temperature magnetic measurements in conjunction with microscopic and mineralogic observations from drifts 4, 5 and 7 indicate that pseudosingle-domain detrital titanomagnetite (partially oxidized and with limited Ti substitution) is the dominant magnetic mineral in the drift sediments. The titanomagnetite occurs in two magnetic forms: (1) a low-coercivity form similar to laboratory-synthesized titanomagnetite and (2) a high-coercivity form (Bcr 〉 60 mT). These two forms vary in amount and stratigraphic distribution across the drifts. We did not find evidence for diagenetic magnetic iron sulfides as has been previously suggested for these drift deposits. The observed change of magnetic mineralogy in sediments deposited during Heinrich events on drift 7 appears to be related to warming periods, which temporarily modified the normal glacial transport pathways of glaciogenic detritus to and along the continental rise and thus resulted in deposition of sediments with a different provenance. Understanding this sediment provenance delivery signature at a wider spatial scale should provide information about ice sheet dynamics in West Antarctica over the last ∼100 kyr.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print.

Description: The origin of pulverized rocks (PR) in surface outcrops adjacent to the fault cores of the San Andreas and other major faults in Southern California is not clear, but their structural context indicates that they are clearly associated with faulting. An understanding of their origin might allow inferences to be drawn about the nature of dynamic slip on faults, including rupture mechanisms and their speed during earthquakes. In the present study, we use split Hopkinson bar recovery experiments to investigate whether PR can be produced under dynamic stress wave loading conditions in the laboratory and whether PR is diagnostic of any particular process of formation. The results of the study indicate that in Westerly granite for transition from sparse fracture to pervasive pulverization requires high strain rates in excess of 250/s and that the formation of PR may be inhibited at the larger burial depths. The constraint imposed by field observations of the relatively low strains (1–3%) in PR recovered from the field and the laboratory derived threshold for the critical strain rate (∼250/s and higher) together indicate that a dynamic supershear-type rupture may be necessary for the origin of pulverized rocks at distances of tens of meters away from the fault plane as observed in the field for both large strike-slip-type and the relatively small dip-slip-type fault ruptures in nature.

Description: This study investigates the spatial and temporal distribution of energy release of large, intermediate-depth earthquakes using a modified back projection technique first used to study the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman megathrust event. Multiple seismic phases are included in the back projection analysis, which provides the capability to determine the energy distribution with respect to depth and time. A total of 22 intermediate-depth earthquakes with moment magnitudes greater than or equal to 6.5 are investigated with hypocentral depths between 100 and 300 km. For most of these events, the vertical extent of energy release is either below the resolution of this study (≤5 km) or slightly above (≤15 km). This observation agrees with previous studies that find large, intermediate-depth earthquakes have subhorizontal rupture planes. The results also show a significant portion of the events have multiple rupture planes that are well separated in depth. The closeness in time of the ruptures on separate planes and the distance between the planes suggest dynamic triggering where the P waves from the first rupture initiate rupture on the second plane. We propose that a dehydration embrittlement mechanism combined with preferentially hydrated subhorizontal faults can explain the observations of dominant subhorizontal rupture planes and the frequent occurrence of rupture complexity involving multiple subevents.

Description: We have synthesized phase D at 24 GPa and at temperatures of 1250–1100°C in a multianvil press under conditions of high silica activity. The compressibility of this high-silica-activity phase D (Mg1.0Si1.7H3.0O6) has been measured up to 55.8 GPa at ambient temperature by powder X-ray diffraction. The volume (V) decreases smoothly with increasing pressure up to 40 GPa, consistent with the results reported in earlier studies. However, a kink is observed in the trend of V versus pressure above ∼40 GPa, reflecting a change in the compression behavior. The data to 30 GPa fit well to a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state (EoS), yielding Vo = 85.1 ± 0.2 Å3; Ko = 167.9 ± 8.6 GPa; and K′o = 4.3 ± 0.5, similar to results for Fe-Al-free phase D reported by Frost and Fei (1999). However, these parameters are larger than those reported for Fe-Al-bearing phase D and for Fe-Al-free phase D. The abnormal volume change in this study may be attributed to the reported hydrogen bond symmetrization in phase D. Fitting a third-order Birch-Murnaghan EoS to the data below 30 GPa yields a bulk modulus Ko = 173 (2) GPa for the hydrogen-off-centered (HOC) phase and Ko = 212 (15) GPa for the data above 40 GPa for the hydrogen-centered (HC) phase, assuming K′o is 4. The calculated bulk modulus Ko of the HC phase is 18% larger than the bulk modulus Ko of the HOC phase.

Description: Knowledge of the mechanical properties of gas-hydrate-bearing sediments is essential for simulating the geomechanical response to gas extraction from a gas-hydrate reservoir. In this study, drained triaxial compression tests were conducted on artificial methane-hydrate-bearing sediment samples under hydrate-stable temperature-pressure conditions. Toyoura sand (average particle size: D50 = 0.230 mm), number 7 silica sand (D50 = 0.205 mm), and number 8 silica sand (D50 = 0.130 mm) were used as the skeleton of each specimen. Axial loading was conducted at an axial strain rate of 0.1% min−1 at a constant temperature of 278 K. The cell and pore pressures were kept constant during axial loading. We found that the strength and stiffness of the hydrate-sand specimens increased with methane hydrate saturation and with the effective confining pressure, and the secant Poisson's ratio decreased with the effective confining pressure. The stiffness depends on the type of sand forming the skeleton of the specimens, although the strength has little dependence on the type of sand. According to an earlier work, hydrate-sand specimens are thought to contract in the early stage of axial loading before starting to expand owing to the dilatancy effect, as is the case for many other geological materials. The test results in this study are discussed in relation to the deformation mechanism proposed in an earlier work.

Description: We have conducted a paleointensity study of the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) polarity transition recorded in 34 successive lava flows of Punaruu Valley on Tahiti. A reversed polarity is obtained from the lower part of the record, major directional changes are derived from the middle part of the record, and a normal polarity is recorded in the upper part of the record. These paleomagnetic directions and five 40Ar/39Ar ages yielding a weighted mean of 771 ± 8 (1σ) ka indicate that 30 lava flows recorded the geomagnetic field across the M-B transition. The 215 specimens from 32 flows were subjected to the double-heating technique of the Shaw method combined with low-temperature demagnetization (LTD-DHT Shaw method), yielding 73 successful results from 18 flows. For the reversed polarity period just prior to the major directional changes, paleointensity shows an oscillation-like variation between 3 and 38 μT corresponding to virtual dipole moments (VDMs) between 0.9 × 1022 and 9.6 × 1022 Am2. For the major directional changes, a weak paleointensity of 5 μT is obtained, which gives a VDM of 1.0 × 1022 Am2. For the normal polarity period, paleointensities are 14–21 μT, giving VDMs of 3.5–5.2 × 1022 Am2. For the reversed polarity period just prior to the major directional changes, a linear relationship with a correlation coefficient of 0.96 is recognized on the diagram of VDM versus virtual geomagnetic pole latitude. This linear relationship may be a precursory feature of the geodynamo at the onset of the M-B transition.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 21, Issue 4, Page 1105-1119, June 2011.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 21, Issue 4, Page 1039-1054, June 2011.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 21, Issue 4, Page 1189-1201, June 2011.