ALBERT

Description: Despite the fact that the institutional environment is acknowledged to influence the implementation of regional adaptations of forest management to climate change, there are few empirical studies addressing the institutional factors and opportunities of adaptation. Using Ostrom’s institutional analysis and development framework, we aimed to identify : (1) the critical and distinctive characteristics of the forest resource and institutional context that may determine how climate change-adaptive forest management measures are implemented and (2) the opportunities for implementing the planned adaptation measures. The analysis is performed on ten European case study regions which differed in many resource-dependent factors, policy arena factors and incentives for changes. The main factors influencing the adaptation are the ownership pattern, the level of policy formation and the nature of forest goods and services. Opportunities for adaptation are driven by the openness of the forest management planning processes to the stakeholders participation, the degree to which business as usual management is projected to be non-satisfactory in the future, and by the number and nature of obstacles to adaptation. Promoting local self-governance mechanisms and the participation of the external stakeholders in forest management planning or in the regional forest or climate change policy adaptation may be a way of overcoming path dependency, behavioural obstacles and potential policy failures in implementing adaptation. The study argues that both climate change belief systems and political participation are important to explain adaptation to climate change when multiple decision-making levels are at stake.

Description: This paper discusses the recent retreat of glaciers and the changes in supraglacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya during the last two decades. We calculated the changes in clean and debris-covered glaciers and the formation, disappearance, and expansion of glacial lakes during the beginning of 1990s, 2000s, and 2010 using Landsat TM and ETM+ images. For this purpose, eight river sub-basins namely Wang Chu, Chamkar Chu, Dangme Chu, Kuri Chu, Mangde Chu, Mo Chu, Pho Chu and Northern Basin were considered. A retreating trend was found in the case of clean glaciers. Debris-covered glaciers in this region were found to have undergone an increase of about 29 %, and this increase was partially contributed by those expanded upstream. This increase in the debris-covered area is higher on the southern side of the Bhutan Himalaya. It is found that a number of moraine-dammed glacial lakes were formed during this period and can be potentially dangerous depending on the size, distance from the glacier and altitude. Most of the glacial lake formation and expansion occurred on the southern side of the Bhutan Himalaya.

Description: Increasing on-farm crop diversity is one agroecological approach to enhancing food self-sufficiency that helps small-scale farmers keep their food systems stable by reducing risks associated with stressors, such as a pest outbreaks or droughts. But understanding how crop diversity and food self-sufficiency are related is unknown. To explore this complex relation, this study presents household data ( n  = 1664) from Nepal to test the hypothesis that families with high crop diversity enjoy greater household food self-sufficiency. Data are presented for three districts that are representative of three distinct agroecological regions of the country: (1) Sarlahi, which is affluent, market-oriented, and on the plains; (2) Makwanpur District in the hills, which has well-developed integrated farm production; and (3) the mountainous District of Humla, which has the poorest quality environment and is the most remote. Results show that in the Humla District, families with greater crop diversity were more self-sufficient. In contrast, farmers in Makwanpur, who have already established a high degree of crop diversity based on vegetable production, do not benefit from additional crop diversity in terms of their ability to provide for themselves. Finally, data from Sarlahi show that families’ food self-sufficiency benefits from crop diversification. We conclude that boosting crop diversity is a viable strategy for maintaining stability in food systems, but this varies depending on the accessibility of a farm and, in particular, access to markets.

Description: Over the last few decades, Mediterranean coastal areas have experienced profound land-use changes due mainly to urban sprawl and reforestation at the expense of former traditional agrarian mosaics and natural resources, such as beach areas or freshwaters streams. These changes have had severe negative consequences on the biodiversity and ecological state (i.e. function) of the territory. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the economic impacts of these consequences on ecosystem services (ES). By reconstructing the landscape of El Maresme County (Barcelona Province, Spain) for three historical points in time (1850, 1954 and 2010), we were able to assess how these land-use changes have affected the total ecosystem value (TEV) by estimating the ES non-market and market values provided by each land-use through market prices and benefit transfer methods. Results show an important decrease in the value of TEV since the 1950s (23.6 million Euros per year) due to urban sprawl. Despite the major changes occurring between the 1850s and 1950s, non-market values did not alter very much due to the type of agricultural practices. Our results show the necessity to take into account the value of non-market ES when designing land planning policies, and especially those concerning beaches and coastal systems to fully integrate the contribution on natural systems into decision-making processes.

Description: Land cover and land use changes can result from climatic variability and climate changes, as well as from direct and indirect human drivers, such as growth in population and consumption. In this study, we aimed to examine whether major factors driving landscape changes (expressed in vegetation cover) in Israel, a densely populated country in the eastern Mediterranean Basin, are related to physical drivers or to human causes. To this end, we calculated statistical trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI—a spectral index representing vegetation cover) from a 14-year MODIS time series, between 2000 and 2014, to identify areas where vegetation cover has either increased or decreased. We chose 125 study areas where statistically significant changes in NDVI were found and used time series of monthly rainfall, Landsat images, Google Earth images and environmental GIS layers to identify the type and cause of landscape changes. The two most common general classes driving land cover changes were agricultural (56 of 125; expansion of agricultural areas or change in agricultural crops) and urban (28 of 125; urban expansion or urban greening). Other important drivers of landscape changes included forestry, woody encroachment, wildfire dynamics and water management. Climate variability was found to explain landscape changes in only 3 of the 125 study areas, all located in the transition zone between the desert and the Mediterranean climate regions of Israel, where a decrease in rainfall led to a decrease in NDVI values. NDVI as an indicator of landscape changes is not effective to detect changes in non-photosynthetic vegetation or to monitor changes in forests where leaf area index values are high. However, we show here that even in a highly heterogeneous and densely populated country, MODIS-derived time series of NDVI are informative to identify landscape change processes.

Description: Small island developing states (SIDS) are recognized as a special case for sustainable development due to the unique set of challenges and vulnerabilities they face. While SIDS are a diverse group of nations, most share characteristics of small size, limited land availability, insularity, susceptibility to natural disasters and deep integration into global markets that make them particularly vulnerable to global environmental and economic change processes. Although there has been considerable research into the impacts of global change processes on small island vulnerability, much less attention has been paid to their resilience, particularly at the intersection of environmental and economic change and the consequences for food security. This paper presents an overview of the social–ecological vulnerabilities that drive food and nutrition insecurity in different SIDS contexts and considers how policies and governance arrangements might better support more resilient and sustainable small island food systems drawing from the collection of papers in this Special Issue.

Description: A recent review of crown-of-thorns starfish ( Acanthaster planci ; COTS) in Indonesia has suggested that their impacts have gone under-reported. In 2012–2013, we surveyed COTS at permanent transects within 12 sites of the Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia, a coastal region close to two rivers and the heavily urbanised city of Makassar. Evidence of COTS was apparent at 8 of 12 sites surveyed with highest densities (37 starfish per 250 m −2 at Barrang Lompo) comparable to those reported in the Indonesian historical literature. At Barrang Lompo and Bonetambung, the COTS outbreak resulted in the loss of half the live coral. Terrestrial effluents have reduced water quality in the Spermonde Archipelago, which further supports recent work linking water quality and COTS outbreaks, thus providing a warning of future outbreaks to Indonesian coastal managers given the country’s increased urbanisation.

Description: This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland–urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.

Description: The majority of vulnerability and adaptation scholarship, policies and programs focus exclusively on climate change or global environmental change. Yet, individuals, communities and sectors experience a broad array of multi-scalar and multi-temporal, social, political, economic and environmental changes to which they are vulnerable and must adapt. While extensive theoretical—and increasingly empirical—work suggests the need to explore multiple exposures, a clear conceptual framework which would facilitate analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to multiple interacting socioeconomic and biophysical changes is lacking. This review and synthesis paper aims to fill this gap through presenting a conceptual framework for integrating multiple exposures into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. To support applications of the framework and facilitate assessments and comparative analyses of community vulnerability, we develop a comprehensive typology of drivers and exposures experienced by coastal communities. Our results reveal essential elements of a pragmatic approach for local-scale vulnerability analysis and for planning appropriate adaptations within the context of multiple interacting exposures. We also identify methodologies for characterizing exposures and impacts, exploring interactions and identifying and prioritizing responses. This review focuses on coastal communities; however, we believe the framework, typology and approach will be useful for understanding vulnerability and planning adaptation to multiple exposures in various social-ecological contexts.

Description: Getting farmers to adopt new cultivars with greater tolerance for coping with climatic extremes and variability is considered as one way of adapting agricultural production to climate change. However, for successful adaptation to occur, an accurate recognition and understanding of the climate signal by key stakeholders (farmers, seed suppliers and agricultural extension services) is an essential precursor. This paper presents evidence based on fieldwork with smallholder maize producers and national seed network stakeholders in Malawi from 2010 to 2011, assessing understandings of rainfall changes and decision-making about maize cultivar choices. Our findings show that preferences for short-season maize cultivars are increasing based on perceptions that season lengths are growing shorter due to climate change and the assumption that growing shorter-season crops represents a good strategy for adapting to drought. However, meteorological records for the two study areas present no evidence for shortening seasons (or any significant change to rainfall characteristics), suggesting that short-season cultivars may not be the most suitable adaptation option for these areas. This demonstrates the dangers of oversimplified climate information in guiding changes in farmer decision-making about cultivar choice.

Description: The State of Mato Grosso in Brazil has undergone intensive land use changes over the past decades. Native ecosystems have been converted into agrosystems for the production of cash crops and cattle. The Brazilian Forest Code advocates full protection of specifically sensitive habitats, and it also safeguards a fixed percentage of native vegetation known as “Legal Reserves” (LRs) inside private rural properties. As part of Brazilian Legal Amazonia region, in Mato Grosso, these percentages account for 35 % of savannas and 80 % of forests found inside each rural property. Here we analyze at the scale of the three biomes: Cerrado, Amazonia and Pantanal, the changes in native vegetation cover (NVC) from 1992 to 2007 and the representativeness of NVC types within the LRs, as well as the role of LRs for general landscape configuration and conservation. In Mato Grosso, 90 % of all studied NVC types are represented inside LR patches. Legal Reserves also accounted for 37 % of the total protected areas and for 37.8 % of all remnant NVCs found in Mato Grosso in 2007. The importance of LRs for landscape structure varied greatly according to biome, but it is noteworthy that LRs were generally missing in highly deforested zones. The relative small size of LRs in all biomes (55 to 64 % of them are ≤12 ha) makes them specifically vulnerable to further changes in land use. Considering the current tendency of ongoing fragmentation, the importance of LRs for landscape connectivity should be increased, specifically by improving the network of corridors between these remnant native vegetation areas.

Description: Cork oak stands are one of the major sources of income from Portuguese Mediterranean forests. Future climate is projected to increase temperatures, reduce precipitation and decrease current forests’ productivity and therefore, adapting management, is a key strategy to mitigate impacts of future climate on cork supply. The central objective of this research was to compare conventional and adaptive management regimes under scenarios of climate change. The adaptive management focussed on adopting optimal harvest schedules while considering different management objectives. The study focused on the Chamusca region, one of the most productive areas of cork, and considered four distinct spatial scales for analysis. For each scale, the management objective was defined according to field information and considered the maximization of cork production while targeting different cork harvesting flows: (a) more frequent and regular or (b) less frequent and concentrated. A forest growth model was used to simulate climate change impact on future yield of cork oak stands under different forest management alternatives. A mixed integer programming model was developed to find the most adequate cork debarking cycle calendar for cork oak stands. Our results suggest that (1) business as usual management under climate change scenarios could decrease cork supply and carbon stock in the tree component of the forests by up to 20 and 30 %, respectively, (2) the development of adaptive management strategies, including cork extraction schedule optimization, to address climate change has advantages over traditional practices and (3) may contribute further to increase cork production (up to double productivity in mid-long term) while addressing concerns with the regulation of cork extraction flows through the adaptation of debarking periods. The mixed integer programming allowed the spatial visualization of the debarking cycle delay. Furthermore, results underline the relevance of an approach to develop adaptive management strategies that can consider different management goals, with different constraints to address climate change.

Description: Forest administrators play a crucial role in translating conservation and development policies into action, yet policy reformers and scholars rarely examine how these administrators make decisions about the implementation of conservation and development policy in India. In this paper, I address this gap. I begin by developing a framework that draws on Western policy implementation studies and Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development framework and then apply this framework to a review of published studies that examine the role of forest officials in implementing public policies in India. The framework differentiates between formal and informal institutions and between institutions which are developed within an agency and those that are directed from outside the agency. I find that forester behavior varies significantly across space and time and has an important influence on the outcome of forestry programs. Innovations and excellent program implementation appear related to foresters’ desire to demonstrate professional efficacy. On the other hand, many failings can be traced either to external direction or to foresters developing internal institutions that are poorly suited to the problems they are tasked with solving. Existing research is limited in its geographic and temporal scope and leaves many questions unanswered, and thus, the review concludes with a brief outline of future research needs.

Description: Marine resource management programs face conflicting mandates: to scale-up marine conservation efforts to cover larger areas and meet national and international conservation targets, while simultaneously to downscale and decentralize management authority to resource users and local communities. These conflicting goals create tensions in marine resource management. This paper explores these tensions by presenting and evaluating the outcomes of a fisheries co-management program on the island of Pemba, Tanzania, where institutions and scale were configured and reconfigured under externally funded programs to improve marine conservation through co-management. The initial institutional arrangements for co-management supported a functioning system to protect marine resources, ensure fishermen’s access, and distribute tourism revenues. However, a subsequent push to scale-up marine management reconfigured institutional arrangements and power in a more hierarchical and potentially weaker system. With the expansion of the co-management program, protected area coverage, financial resources, and the number of community organizations created for fisheries co-management expanded tremendously; however, community participation in marine management decreased, and the fishermen’s association previously involved in co-management dissolved. Several factors contributed to this outcome: inadequate time to solidify co-management institutions and arrangements, diverse resource users inexperienced with local management, a sudden and substantial new source of funding, and political pressures to restructure marine management. Rather than focusing primarily on expanding coverage and devolving authority, it is important to adapt co-management arrangements to the local contexts in which they operate.

Description: Many methods are available to support adaptation planning. Yet there is little guidance on their selection. A recently developed diagnostic framework offers a structured set of criteria to choose research methods for specific adaptation questions. It has been derived from science-driven cases mostly. This paper offers the first application to a policy-driven case. Thus, it aims to (1) assess the descriptive quality of the framework for adaptation planning and (2) reflect on its value in supporting method selection. The paper focuses on the research commissioned for adaptation policymaking by the Dutch Delta Programme in the Wadden region. It compares the research methods used in the Delta Programme with those suggested by the diagnostic framework. It concludes that the selection of methods in the adaptation planning process can be described quite well by the decision trees of the diagnostic framework. Deviations occurred mostly for pragmatic reasons when the selection is informed by practical limitations of the policymaking process, such as available resources, time constraints and experience of the involved experts. It is recommended to enrich the diagnostic framework with methods from adaptation practice and consult it in climate adaptation studies at an early stage.

Description: Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis , a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.

Description: Many studies have identified climate warming to be among the most important threats to biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on species with low genetic diversity, ectothermic physiology, small ranges, low effective populations sizes, specific habitat requirements and limited dispersal capabilities. Despite an ever-increasing number of studies reporting climate change-induced range shifts, few of these have incorporated species’ specific dispersal constraints into their models. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on genetic variation within populations and species have rarely been assessed, while this is a promising direction for future research. Here we explore the effects of climate change on the potential distribution and genetic variation of the endemic Pyrenean newt Calotriton asper over the period 2020–2080. We use species distribution modelling in combination with high-resolution gridded climate data while subsequently applying four different dispersal scenarios. We furthermore use published data on genetic variation of both mtDNA and AFLP loci to test whether populations with high genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity and expected heterozygosity) or evolutionary history (unique haplotypes and K clusters) have an increased extinction risk from climate change. The present study indicates that climate change drastically reduces the potential distribution range of C. asper and reveals dispersal possibilities to be minimal under the most realistic dispersal scenarios. Despite the major loss in suitable climate, the models highlight relatively large stable areas throughout the species core distribution area indicating persistence of populations over time. The results, however, show a major loss of genetic diversity and evolutionary history. This highlights the importance of accounting for intraspecific genetic variation in climate change impact studies. Likewise, the integration of species’ specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models is an important step to fully explore the effects of climate change on species potential distributions.

Description: As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate. This article discusses several discourses around migration options for people affected by climate change impacts in small island developing states. Options currently available to citizens of the Pacific nations of Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are explored, including the perspective that high levels of customary land tenure in the Pacific are a barrier to permanent movement to other Pacific countries. Migration to Pacific Rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA is complicated by strict migration eligibility criteria, which often require proof of language abilities and income, and may restrict the number of accompanying dependants. The Compact of Free Association provides visa-free entry to the USA for citizens of the Marshall Islands, but the lack of financial assistance restricts eligibility to those with existing financial resources or family networks that can provide access to capital. The difficulty of directly attributing single weather/climate events to climate change hinders the formulation of a definition of climate change-related migration. This obstacle in turn hinders the establishment of effective visa categories and migration routes for what is likely to become a growing number of people in coming decades.

Description: There has been a significant lack of land cover change studies in relation to deforestation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea). The purpose of this study is to characterize deforestation in North Korea through land cover change trajectory and spatial analysis. We used three 30-m gridded land cover data sets for North Korea representing the conditions of the late 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, respectively, as well as a digital elevation model. We examined the land cover trajectories during the two decades, i.e., which land cover became which at the pixel level. In addition, we calculated topographic characteristics of deforested pixels. Major findings from the study are summarized as follows: (1) net forest loss in North Korea was negligible in the latter decade compared to the former (〉5000 km 2 ), whereas other land cover changes were still active; (2) as a result of deforestation, forest land cover became mostly agricultural, particularly in the latter decade (95 %); (3) expansion of agricultural land cover continued during the time, increasing by 〉42 %; and (4) elevation and slope of deforested areas decreased slightly in the latter decade. The key contribution of the study is that it has demonstrated which land cover became which at the 30-m pixel level, complementing existing studies that examined overall forest stock in North Korea.

Description: Soil carbon stocks of 29 plots along a transect through tropical Brazil showed only minor soil carbon losses after land use shift, although replacement of forest-derived carbon was detectable in subsoil and topsoil, indicating that new equilibria in soil carbon stocks might not have been reached after deforestation. The proportion of carbon lost from soils was negligible as compared to the emissions from biomass reduction by deforestation itself. Industrial agriculture had the best ratio between food production and carbon loss, pointing toward a potential reduction of deforestation pressure by further agricultural intensification, which is not achieved in practice due to institutional obstacles and uneven benefit sharing. In contrast, farmers at the agricultural frontier were identified as change agents if alternative sustainable land uses, taking advantage of biodiversity-related ecosystem services, are fostered by better access to credit lines and extension management. Thus, constraining the climate change debate in agriculture to sole management of carbon stock changes in soil is misleading and draws the attention from the most urgent problems: deforestation caused by wrong incentives.

Description: Agriculture has been identified as a major driver of the current significant changes in farmland biodiversity. Taking into account these environmental impacts, agriculture today aims at a more sustainable way of producing that would reconcile its economic and ecological functions. A new approach based on bio-economic modeling has been recently developed to explore different facets of such reconciliation and to understand how to promote sustainable agricultural public policies. In this paper, we review the contributions of such approach. The review shows that it is possible to reconcile agriculture and biodiversity with public policies, since it is possible to increase simultaneously the economic and ecological performances of agricultural landscapes compared to the current trends. However, it is not possible to optimize this reconciliation: The different criteria cannot be maximized simultaneously, and some trade-offs emerge between economic and ecological criteria in optimality. To go further, some bio-economic studies open new perspectives. For example, they suggest studying the society as a whole instead of focusing on the agricultural sector or going beyond the concept of optimality by stressing the idea of viability. In addition to reforming the current agricultural policies, deeper debates on the notion of sustainability have to be held.

Description: Nomadic pastoralism and transhumance are ancient human adaptations to the movements of large herbivores, which themselves migrate to follow favorable environmental conditions. Free-ranging livestock production has been criticized as less water efficient than factory farming and crop production. This fails to take into account both the additional ecosystem services made possible by rainfall over rangelands, and the ability of free-ranging animals to track water availability across environmental gradients. By analogy to transhumance, we propose a model of “transhumant rewilding,” or species reintroduction with managed herding of wild ungulates for the ecological restoration and sustainability of food production in (silvo)pastoral systems. We consider preliminary evidence for the feasibility of this model with a case study from central Chile in which guanacos ( Lama guanicoe ) could be used to help restore a silvopastoral savanna (“espinal”) via browsing and endozoochory. First, we present preliminary data on guanaco foraging in espinal. Second, we use a GIS analysis to identify least-cost paths between areas of high and low espinal condition in central Chile and assess the feasibility of using them as migratory pathways. Finally, we consider the relative ecosystem service advantages and costs of the transhumant rewilding scenario compared to other restoration and agricultural development scenarios for central Chile. We conclude that transhumant rewilding has the potential to be a useful model for rewilding-inspired land management in cultural landscapes and can contribute to food security and sustainable agricultural production.

Description: Although night-time water relations have been studied in different plant species in the last decade, there is limited information about the impact of climate variables on endogenous regulation of night-time water relations in trees. The aim of the current study was to elucidate how long-term exposure to increased air humidity impacts night-time gaseous and liquid phase conductance and gas exchange in cut shoots of hybrid aspen ( Populus tremula L. ×  P. tremuloides Michx.) sampled from the free air humidity manipulation experimental site and measured at constant air relative humidity (RH) level in a growth chamber. Neither the early-night leaf conductance ( g n1 ) nor canopy conductance ( g c ) differed ( P  〉 0.05) between the humidification (H) and control (C) treatments. However, there was a significant ( P  〈 0.01) difference in predawn leaf conductance ( g n5 ) and shoot hydraulic conductance ( K 5 ) between the treatments, with the shoots from the H treatment opening their stomata more efficiently before dawn. Both the early-night dark respiration ( R 1 ) and height increment of stump sprouts were significantly higher ( P  〈 0.01) in the control than in the H treatment. Although the relationship between g n5 and predawn dark respiration ( R 5 ) was statistically significant ( P  〈 0.01) in the H treatment, the g n5 did not depend on R 5 in the C treatment. Our findings suggest that endogenous increase in predawn water flux associates with decreased growth rate of hybrid aspen grown at elevated RH. Thus, regional changes in air humidity may potentially impact night-time water relations in fast-growing tree species like hybrid aspen.

Description: Livestock systems play an important role in the livelihoods of many rural communities in Sub-Saharan Africa while being responsible for an important share of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. This study aimed to evaluate the potential for adoption of climate smart agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan livestock systems, related to the improvement in feed, animal husbandry, and grassland management. These practices present productivity and mitigation benefits and in some cases may also contribute to enhance resilience. In this study, we used a data set of 1538 farm households across nine Sub-Saharan countries. A mixed logit model was used to assess the influence on adoption and to estimate the probability of adoption. Our results show that there seems to be stronger influence of physical and financial capitals on adoption than the other capitals. Different types of capitals influence the uptake of different agricultural practices. Yet the probability of adoption would change across countries. The results of this study could help to refine adoption estimates calculated through global or regional modelling approaches and to inform the design of policies to better target investments in order to foster adoption.

Description: Salt marshes persist within the intertidal zone when marsh elevation gains are commensurate with rates of sea-level rise (SLR). Monitoring changes in marsh elevation in concert with tidal water levels is therefore an effective way to determine if salt marshes are keeping pace with SLR over time. Surface elevation tables (SETs) are a common method for collecting precise data on marsh elevation change. Southern New England is a hot spot for SLR, but few SET elevation change datasets are available for the region. Our study synthesizes elevation change data collected from 1999 to 2015 from a network of SET stations throughout Rhode Island (RI). These data are compared to accretion and water level data from the same time period to estimate shallow subsidence and determine whether marshes are tracking SLR. Salt marsh elevation increased at a mean overall rate of 1.40 mm year −1 and ranged from −0.33 to 3.36 mm year −1 at individual stations. Shallow subsidence dampened elevation gain in mid-Narragansett Bay marshes, but in other areas of coastal RI, subsurface processes may augment surface accretion. In all cases, marsh elevation gain was exceeded by the 5.26 mm year −1 rate of increase in sea levels during the study period. Our study provides the first SET elevation change data from RI and shows that most RI marshes are not keeping pace with short- or long-term rates of SLR. It also lends support to previous research that implicates SLR as a primary driver of recent changes to southern New England salt marshes.

Description: Carnivore attacks on livestock are a primary driver of human–carnivore conflict and carnivore decline globally. Livestock depredation is particularly threatening to carnivore conservation in Central India, a priority landscape and stronghold for the endangered tiger. To strengthen the effectiveness of conflict mitigation strategies, we examined the spatial and temporal patterns and physical characteristics of livestock depredation in Kanha Tiger Reserve. We combined livestock compensation historical records (2001–2009) with ground surveys (2011–2012) and carnivore scat to identify when and where livestock species were most vulnerable. Between 400 and 600 livestock were reported for financial compensation each year, and most (91–95 %) were successfully reimbursed. Tigers and leopards were responsible for nearly all livestock losses and most often killed in the afternoon and early evening. Cattle and buffalo were most at risk in dense forests away from villages and roads, whereas goats were most often killed in open vegetation near villages. A spatial predation risk model for cattle revealed high-risk hotspots around the core zone boundary, confirming the significant risks to livestock grazing illegally in the core. Such ecological insights on carnivore–livestock interactions may help improve species-specific livestock husbandry for minimizing livestock losses and enabling coexistence between people and carnivores.

Description: Ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is a central aim of the European Union’s biodiversity strategy for 2020. Therefore, accurate modelling and mapping of ecosystem services as well as of biodiversity conservation value is an important asset in support of spatial planning and policy implementation. The objectives of this study were to analyse the provision of the multiple ecosystem services under two forestation scenarios (eucalyptus/pine vs. oak) at the watershed scale and to evaluate their possible trade-offs with the biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed, in northwest Portugal, was used as case study area, in which soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services, biomass and carbon storage services. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert judgement applied to a land cover map. Results indicated large provision of ecosystem services in the high and low mountain sub-basins. The overall performance for water quantity and timing is better under the shrubland and oak forest scenarios, when compared to the eucalyptus/pine forest scenario, which perform better for flood regulation and erosion control services, especially in the low mountain sub-basin. The current shrubland dominated cover also shows good performance for the control of soil erosion. The oak scenario is the one with less trade-offs between forest services and biodiversity conservation. Results highlight SWAT as an effective tool for modelling and mapping ecosystem services generated at the watershed scale, thereby contributing to improve the options for land management.

Description: Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation ( ρ RFE1.0  = 0.85, p  = 0.00, n  = 126; ρ RFE2.0  = 0.76, p  = 0.00, n  = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β  = 0.23, p  = 0.02, n  = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.

Description: Agricultural practices have constantly changed in West Africa, and understanding the factors that have driven the changes may help guide strategies to promote sustainable agriculture in the region. To contribute to such efforts, this paper analyzes drivers of change in farming practices in the region using data obtained from surveys of 700 farming households in five countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger and Senegal). The results showed that farmers have adopted various practices in response to the challenges they have faced during the last decade. A series of logit models showed that most changes farmers made to their practices are undertaken for multiple reasons. Land use and management changes including expanding farmed areas and using mineral fertilization and manure are positively related to perceived changes in the climate, such as more erratic rainfall. Planting new varieties, introducing new crops, crop rotation, expanding farmed area and using pesticides are positively associated with new market opportunities. Farm practices that require relatively high financial investment such as use of pesticides, drought-tolerant varieties and improved seeds were positively associated with the provision of technical and financial support for farmers through development projects and policies. Changes in markets and climate are both helping to promote needed changes in farming practices in West Africa. Therefore, policies that foster the development of markets for agricultural products, and improved weather- and climate-related information linked to knowledge of appropriate agricultural innovations in different environments are needed.

Description: Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO 2 in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.

Description: Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climate–water conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climate–conflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the south-eastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.

Description: Mediterranean forests are found in the Mediterranean basin, California, the South African Cape Province, South and southwestern Australia and parts of Central Chile. They represent 1.8 % of the world forest areas of which the vast majority is found in the Mediterranean basin, where historical and paleogeographic episodes, long-term human influence and geographical and climatic contrasts have created ecosystemic diversity and heterogeneity. Even if evergreen is dominant, deciduous trees are also represented, with different forest types including dense stands with a closed canopy (forests sensu stricto) and pre-forestal or pre-steppic structures with lower trees density and height. The Mediterranean basin is also a hot spot of forest species and genetic diversity, with 290 woody species versus only 135 for non-Mediterranean Europe. However, the characteristics of the Mediterranean area (long-standing anthropogenic pressure, significant current human activity and broad biodiversity) make it one of the world’s regions most threatened by current changes. Four examples of Mediterranean forest types, present in south and north of the Mediterranean basin and more or less threatened, are developed in order to show that linking “hard sciences” and humanities and social sciences is necessary to understand these complex ecosystems. We show also that these forests, in spite of specific climatic constraints, can also be healthy and productive and play a major ecological and social role. Furthermore, even if the current human activity and global change constitute a risk for these exceptional ecosystems, Mediterranean forests represent a great asset and opportunities for the future of the Mediterranean basin.

Description: This study examines the potential for ecological engineering to enhance the beneficial ecosystem services provided by birds in tropical rice fields. Bird activities were monitored at six sites in the Philippines with high-diversity vegetation patches (HDVPs) established as an ecological engineering approach to restore ecosystem services. Adjacent plots of conventional rice were monitored as controls. Predatory birds (shrikes, Lanius spp., grassbirds, Megalurus palustris , and kingfishers, Halcyon spp.) were more active in the ecological engineering fields where they foraged for arthropods and snails among the rice plants. Pied trillers, Lalage nigra , and yellow vented bulbuls, Pycnonotus goiavier , foraged more in the HDVPs than in rice. These birds mainly responded to the availability of bamboo for perching in the HDVPs, although patch vegetation beneath the bamboo was also used for perching by some species. Aerial hunters such as swallows, Hirundo spp., avoided HDVPs likely because the tall vegetation and bamboo stakes represented an obstacle for their flight. Small changes in the design of HDVPs could avoid any negative effects on foraging by swallows and swifts. The results indicate that ecological engineering of rice paddies can have multiple benefits for farmers and the environment, including improved nutrition for farming communities, the creation of habitat for wildlife, and the enhancement of regulatory ecosystem services provided by insectivorous and snail-eating birds.

Description: This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate hazards and associated capacity needs. Households play an important role in responding to the impact of a changing climate by creating a functional link between individual and community responses to change. However, household perspectives on their capacity needs are rarely sought in programs seeking to provide incentives for household action—despite the influence of normative values and perceptions on household action. Rather, interventions are often informed by quantitative measures of adaptive capacity, such as access to financial or social capital. An alternative approach involves analysis of social narratives of capability that reflect normative perceptions of climate risk and capacity needs. Implementation of this approach reveals that a significant number of households in vulnerable locations consider existing capacities sufficient to manage familiar climate hazards, regardless of socio-economic circumstance. Our comparative study of two Australian coastal communities also suggests that a dominant narrative of capability to manage climate hazards reduces the likelihood of household investments in adaptive actions. While socio-political influences on narratives are often deeply embedded and difficult to change in the short term, identifying perceived risk and response capacity is pivotal in determining the likely utility of adaptive capacity stocks as measured through quantitative means.

Description: The protection of Lake Baikal and the planning of water management measures in the Selenga River Basin require a comprehensive understanding of the current state and functioning of the delta’s ecosystem and hydrogeochemical processes. This is particularly relevant in light of recent and expected future changes involving both the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Baikal basin causing spatiotemporal changes in water flow, morphology, and transport of sediments and metals in the Selenga River delta and thus impacting on delta barrier functions. The central part of the delta had been characterized by sediment storage, especially along the main channels, causing a continuous lift of the delta surface by about 0.75 cm/year −1 . Theses morphological changes have a significant impact on hydrological conditions, with historical shifts in the bulk discharge from the left to the right parts of the delta which is distinguished by a relatively high density of wetlands. Regions with a high density of wetlands and small channels, in contrast to main channel regions, show a consistent pattern of considerable contaminant filtering and removal (between 77 and 99 % for key metals), during both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The removal is associated with a significant concentration increase (2–3 times) of these substances in the bottom sediment. In consequence, geomorphological processes, which govern the partitioning of flow between different channel systems, may therefore directly govern the barrier function of the delta.

Description: How should we measure a household’s resilience to climate extremes, climate change or other evolving threats? As resilience gathers momentum on the international stage, interest in this question continues to grow. So far, efforts to measure resilience have largely focused on the use of ‘objective’ frameworks and methods of indicator selection. These typically depend on a range of observable socio-economic variables, such as levels of income, the extent of a household’s social capital or its access to social safety nets. Yet while objective methods have their uses, they suffer from well-documented weaknesses. This paper advocates for the use of an alternative but complementary method: the measurement of ‘subjective’ resilience at the household level. The concept of subjective resilience stems from the premise that people have an understanding of the factors that contribute to their ability to anticipate, buffer and adapt to disturbance and change. Subjective household resilience therefore relates to an individual’s cognitive and affective self-evaluation of their household’s capabilities and capacities in responding to risk. We discuss the advantages and limitations of measuring subjective household resilience and highlight its relationships with other concepts such as perceived adaptive capacity, subjective well-being and psychological resilience. We then put forward different options for the design and delivery of survey questions on subjective household resilience. While the approach we describe is focused at the household level, we show how it has the potential to be aggregated to inform sub-national or national resilience metrics and indicators. Lastly, we highlight how subjective methods of resilience assessment could be used to improve policy and decision-making. Above all, we argue that, alongside traditional objective measures and indicators, efforts to measure resilience should take into account subjective aspects of household resilience in order to ensure a more holistic understanding of resilience to climate extremes and disasters.

Description: Lake Baikal is the largest near-surface global freshwater source and of high interest for water quality alterations, as deterioration of water quality is a main global and an increasing issue in the Selenga River Basin. Here, the Selenga River Basin as main contributor to the inflow of Lake Baikal is extremely important. Pressure on ecosystems and water resources increased due to population growth, rapid urbanization and rising industrial activities, particularly in the mining sector. In this study, the large-scale water resources model WaterGAP3 is applied to calculate loadings of conservative substances (total dissolved solids) and non-conservative substances (faecal coliform bacteria and biological oxygen demand) in a spatially explicit way as well as in in-stream concentrations to get an insight into the state of water quality under current and future scenario conditions. The results show a strong increase in loadings in the scenario period and consequently increasing concentration levels. Comparing the sectoral contributions of the loadings, domestic and industrial sectors are by far the main contributors today and expected to be in the future. Furthermore, for all modelled substances and time periods, water quality thresholds are exceeded posing a potential risk to aquatic ecosystems and human health.

Description: Attempts to influence the development of land systems are often based on detailed scenarios that constrain relevant factors, describe a range of divergent but plausible futures and identify potential pathways to visions of desirable conditions. However, a number of assumptions are usually made during this process, and one of the most substantial is that land managers display homogeneous, economically rational behaviour across space, time and scenarios. This assumption precludes the consideration of important behavioural effects and limits understanding of the feasibility of scenario-based pathways towards visions. We use an agent-based land use model to examine broad forms of behavioural variation within defined scenarios in theoretical contexts. We relate model results to stakeholder-developed visions of desired future land systems in Europe and so assess the scope for behavioural pathways towards these normative futures. We find that the achievability of visions is determined by internal inconsistencies, scenario conditions and the multifunctional potential of land uses, with a fundamental tension between large-scale land use productivity and small-scale diversity (i.e. land sparing and land sharing). Trading conditions affect this balance most strongly and represent an obvious target for governance strategies concerned with achieving multifunctional land use. However, within specific circumstances behavioural effects are strong and diverse, and can accelerate, counteract or mitigate the impacts of other drivers. This suggests that visions for the land system should focus on trade-offs, identifying those that are least strong, most acceptable and most susceptible to adjustment through behavioural or other influences.

Description: Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation’s agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.

Description: Forage and more widely grassland systems are difficult to analyze in economic terms because a large proportion of what is produced is not marketed. Economic misestimation of these farm products may dramatically alter projected climate change impacts. This study estimates the economic value of grass and assesses the impact of climatic variations on grassland–livestock systems by taking various environmental and climatic factors into account. Accordingly, grass yield responses to nitrogen inputs (N-yield functions) have been simulated using the grassland biogeochemical PaSim model and then fed into the economic farm-type supply AROPAj model. We developed a computational method to estimate shadow prices of grass production, allowing us to better estimate the effects of climatic variability on grassland and crop systems. This approach has been used on a European scale under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios (AR4 A2 and B1). Results show a significant change in land use over time. Accordingly, due to decreases in feed expenses, farmers may increase livestock, thereby increasing overall greenhouse gas emissions for all scenarios considered. As part of autonomous adaptation by farming systems, N-yield functions extending to pastures and fodders allow us to improve the model and to refine results when marketed and non-marketed crops are considered in a balanced way.

Description: Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are not only dealing with decreased production from land degradation, but are also impacted heavily by climate variability. Farmers perceive decreased rainfall or shortened rainy seasons throughout SSA; however, the link between perceptions and climate variability is complex, especially in areas with increasing land degradation. Moreover, little is known about climate variability and farmers’ perceptions in central equatorial Africa. The purpose of this study is to quantify interannual rainfall variability from 1983 to 2014 in western Uganda and to relate the rainfall variability and associated changes in soil moisture to perceptions and coping strategies of local farmers. Surveys of 308 farming households and 14 group interviews were conducted near Kibale National Park, and daily satellite-based rainfall data for the region were extracted from the African Rainfall Climatology version 2 database. Results indicate a decrease in the long rains by approximately 3 weeks throughout much of the region; thus, soil-water deficits have intensified. Farmers perceived later onsets of both the short rains and long rains, while also reporting decreasing soil fertility and crop yields. Therefore, farmers’ perceptions of rainfall variability in the Kibale region may reflect more the decrease in soil fertility than the shortened rainy seasons and decreased soil moisture. Expanding croplands has been the farmers’ most prevalent coping strategy to decreased yields; however, nearly all the unfarmed land in western Uganda is now in protected areas. Consequently, western Uganda is facing a crisis at the nexus of population growth, land use change, and climate change.

Description: Southern Amazonia is the first region of Brazil’s Amazon area to be exposed to intensive conversion to agriculture and ranching. This conversion emits greenhouse gases from the carbon stock in the biomass and soils of the previous vegetation. Quantifying these carbon stocks is the first step in quantifying the impact on global warming from this conversion. This review is limited to information on Brazilian Amazonia’s carbon stocks. It indicates large amounts of carbon at risk of emission in both biomass and soils, as well as considerable uncertainty in estimates. Reducing uncertainty is a priority for research but the existence of uncertainty must not be used as an excuse for delaying measures to contain deforestation. The magnitude of carbon stocks is proportional to greenhouse gas emissions per hectare of deforestation and consequently to impact on global climate.

Description: Noticeable changes in global temperatures, climate and ocean carbon chemistry are the result of carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere. This increase has been mitigated by the oceans capacity to absorb one-fourth of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, although this CO 2 intake affects oceans carbonate chemistry [i.e., ocean acidification—(OA)]. The detrimental effect of OA in the development and shell formation has been studied in several species of bivalves, although no information is available on the wedge shell Donax trunculus , a gastronomically appreciated species and an important economical resource in several southern European countries. We evaluated the effect of p CO 2 increase on hatching and early life stages of D. trunculus, considering two ocean acidification scenarios (ΔpH −0.3 and ΔpH −0.6). Our results showed that elevated p CO 2 caused a delay in hatching into D-larvae and reduced larvae survival. In the extreme scenario (ΔpH −0.6), some trochophore larvae persisted to day 9 of the experiment and more abnormal larvae were produced than in the ΔpH −0.3 and control treatments. At day 5, normal veligers under extreme acidification were smaller than in other treatments, but by day 9, these differences were attenuated and the average size of normal D-larvae varied inversely to the pH gradient. Possible underlying mechanisms for these complex response patterns are discussed, including the existence of phenotypic plasticity or genetic pre-adaptive capacity in this D. trunculus population to cope with future environmental changes.

Description: The need for domestic smallholder farming systems to better support food and nutrition security in the Caribbean is a pressing challenge. The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) faces complex socio-ecological challenges related to historical legacies of plantation agriculture, small population sizes, geographic isolation, jurisdictional diversity, and proneness to natural disasters, all of which underscore the importance of fostering system-wide innovation potential. This paper explores the factors that are impacting the innovation potential of smallholder farming households in four CARICOM small island developing states (St. Lucia, St. Kitts-Nevis, Trinidad and Tobago, and Guyana) using data collected through producer household surveys, focus groups, and key informant interviews. Results indicate that a systemic lack of access to finance, markets, and knowledge networks is perceived as limiting smallholder innovation potential in the region. Compounding these challenges was a pervasive lack of trust reported between actors and institutions throughout the agricultural innovation system, hindering the potential for collective action. Our findings point to the need for more decentralized governance approaches that are capable of establishing stronger relationships between actors and institutions to enhance knowledge flows in support of regional rural development and food and nutrition security objectives.

Description: Given the projected climatic changes, building resilient agricultural systems is of vital significance in protecting vulnerable agrarian communities in sub-Saharan Africa. Under this scenario, the article attempts to identify a set of resilience-building adaptive strategies (intensification, diversification, alteration, migration, etc.) among farmers in Morogoro, Tanzania, and crafts a composite index of these strategies using a principal component analysis-based weighting scheme. The analysis also reveals the latent structure and internal correlations of actions intended to build resilience of the farming systems. Subsequently, the linkages of livelihood resources (natural, human, social and financial capitals) to the resilience-building strategies are examined. A multiple regression analysis is employed to link the composite index to variables representing the four capitals. The results bring quantitative evidence to the linkages and highlight the need of enhancing livelihood resources to enhance the ability to undertake adaptive strategies that denotes the ability to withstand stresses and shocks from climatic changes. Actions to improve human capital (awareness campaigns on climate change impacts as well as possible adaptive strategies), social capital (strengthening social networks, improving tenure security), financial capital (increasing credit availability) and natural capital (measures to enhance agricultural potential, support for adaptive action in areas with low agricultural potential) are needed in order to impart resilience to the farming systems against the changing climate.

Description: The global demand for palm oil has increased sharply in the past and is expected to double over the coming decades. Land use changes resulting from the concomitant expansion of oil palm cultivation have caused further deforestation, which in turn has had a severely negative impact on the environment and climate. Sustainable intensification strategies are therefore required to meet the growing demand for palm oil while simultaneously improving farm household incomes, increasing food security and self-sufficiency. Palm oil production in Africa and especially in Tanzania is dominated by small-scale subsistence farming systems that are characterised by low productivity and low yields, even in regions with the most suitable cultivation conditions. By conducting stakeholder interviews, focus-group discussions and a household survey, we analysed palm oil production in the Western Tanzanian Province of Kigoma in order to gain a more complete picture of oil palm farming in smallholder systems and to better understand how smallholders evaluate certain options for the intensification of palm oil production. We identified and evaluated locally existing best practices from the farmers’ perspective and identified factors which may have a positive impact on production levels. Our case study sites are characterised by large oil palm plantations that have been operating since colonial times. Also examined were farm plots with an average of 35.7 palm oil trees per acre. Palms are cultivated to produce edible vegetable oil and are used for firewood. The results indicate large differences between output levels that result from the agricultural management practice employed (e.g. using hybrid varieties, sub-optimal planting densities and low weeding or organic fertilising inputs). The processing technology used in the households examined was not conducive for changing the situation from low to high yields and productivity levels. A shift from subsistence to market-orientated production generates income opportunities for farmers and helps meet the ever-increasing demand for palm oil. Our results indicate that an improved small-scale palm oil production system, including agroforestry or mixed cropping and general intensification of plant maintenance, may increase yields without putting additional pressure on natural forests—a step towards ensuring palm oil is produced in a supply chain that avoids deforestation.

Description: A major gap exists in integrating climate projections and social–ecological vulnerability analyses at scales that matter, which has affected local-scale adaptation planning and actions to date. We address this gap by providing a novel methodology that integrates information on: (i) the expected future climate, including climate-related extreme events, at the village level; (ii) an ecological assessment of the impacts of these climate forecasts on coral reefs; and (iii) the social adaptive capacity of the artisanal fishers, to create an integrated vulnerability assessment on coastal communities in five villages in Papua New Guinea. We show that, despite relatively proximate geographies, there are substantial differences in both the predicted extreme rainfall and temperature events and the social adaptive capacity among the five fishing-dependent communities, meaning that they have likely different vulnerabilities to future climate change. Our methodology shows that it is possible to capture social information and integrate this with climate and ecological modeling in ways that are best suited to address the impacts of climate-mediated environmental changes currently underway across different scales.

Description: Across Southeast Asia, human activity has caused rapid mangrove system degradation and loss. In Vietnam, a country undergoing economic transition, mangrove systems are vital to the livelihoods of coastal rural communities. This paper studies three mangrove system-dependent communities on Vietnam’s northern coast. Guided by the sustainable livelihood framework, the paper adopts a mixed methods approach. It presents current uses of mangrove system goods and the factors shaping past livelihood responses to mangrove system change, using livelihood trajectory analysis. Findings demonstrate that communities depend on mangrove systems to different degrees for income, subsistence and to respond to change. However, the rapid development of aquaculture is associated with a significantly reduced and degraded mangrove system commons necessary to support the livelihoods of low-income households. Three distinct livelihood trajectories are identified: consolidator groups able to use their access to a wide range of resources, locked into resilient trajectories; accumulator groups able to use their access to limited resources to move from vulnerable to more resilient trajectories; and marginalised groups facing increasingly reduced access to resources locked into vulnerable trajectories. Vietnam faces challenges in reconciling a more market-orientated economy with the maintenance of mangrove system functions and processes that shape the vulnerability and resilience of livelihood trajectories. Policies and projects promoting the sustainable management of mangrove systems should acknowledge the substantial contribution and multiple uses of mangrove systems in livelihoods, particularly of the poor, and the impact of aquaculture on income equality and livelihood diversity that shapes household resilience and vulnerability.

Description: The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is being increasingly applied in environmental governance and science. To safeguard key ES in changing and complex social–ecological systems such as treeline areas, we need to (1) map key ES in different types of treeline landscapes, (2) identify the stakeholders benefiting from and threatening ES, and (3) examine how ES could be governed more sustainably. We explore these questions in European treeline areas by using quantitative and qualitative social science techniques to analyse responses from a survey of local scientific experts in 20 altitudinal and polar treeline areas in 15 European countries. In contrast to the prevalent consideration of treeline areas as a single type of a social–ecological system, we show that European treeline areas can be divided into two types that significantly differ in the delivery of ES. Our analyses allowed us to categorize stakeholders according to their benefits from and threats to ES; “Green key players” formed the most numerous group, while smaller number of stakeholder groups was categorized as “Harmless crowd”, “Occasional stressors”, and “Risky users”. However, behaviour of stakeholders is very much site-specific. Of 595 pairs of stakeholders analysed, we found 〈5 EU-wide “Allies” and “Opponents”. Recommendations for improved governance include adjusting governance instruments to specific problems in divergent treeline systems and creating participatory structures where stakeholders better interact with scientists and can genuinely influence management decisions.

Description: While there is general agreement on the necessity for local adaptation, there is a wide range of different understandings of what type of adaptation is seen as legitimate. It is often contested who should actively steer and take part in local adaptation, for which reasons and based on what kind of mandate, and with which methods. Planning theory can serve as a helpful reference point for examining the sources of legitimacy for adaptation in an urban context. From a planning perspective, adaptation is concerned with climate change as one out of many issues planning has to respond to. The layered co-existence of planning paradigms in practice suggests diverse, sometimes contradictory sources of legitimacy for urban planning and—as we claim here—also for climate change adaptation. This study examines the legitimacy of adaptation from a planning theoretical perspective in Helsinki, drawing on semi-structured interviews and social network analysis to show how adaptation is commonly understood from a rationalist perspective as an apolitical activity with local authorities’ experts designing and implementing adaptation. Nevertheless, some of the central actors understand adaptation as a communicative activity and a common deliberation of solutions. The co-occurrence of disparate paradigms results in ambiguous legitimacy that can impede the successful implementation of local climate change adaptation.

Description: The freshwater resources of small islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and human stressors due to their limited extent and adaptive capacity. A water security approach is useful for effective management of the water resources; however, understanding risk to water security is critical in order to effectively plan and adapt to future changes. Currently available assessment tools generally do not incorporate risk and are not suitable for application on small islands, where the hydrogeological setting has unique vulnerabilities. The aim of this work is to provide a framework to characterize risk to water security for small islands. The risk assessment was developed using Andros Island, the Bahamas, as a case study area. Numerical modelling characterizes the response of the water system to potential future stressors related to climate change and human development, the results of which are integrated into the assessment framework. Based on risk assessment principles, indicators are determined for susceptibility, hazard threat, vulnerability and loss, in order to define the risk to water security. The resulting indicators are presented in geospatial maps that rank areas of risk to water security. These maps were provided to local water managers and policy-makers in the Bahamas as a tool to identify high-risk areas for near-term action and to inform long-term planning. The maps have also been used as a platform to engage local residents and raise awareness about the impact climate change and land-use activities may have on water security.

Description: This article analyzes the effects of water supply variations on micro-level agricultural irrigation under institutional water constraints and projects the irrigation percentage and farm income under future climate scenarios. We use a highly detailed data sample of irrigation status, water rights, water supply, and agricultural land use from Idaho’s Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer area. Results indicate that a 1-unit increase in irrigation percentage leads to ~US$12 ha −1 increase in crop revenue. Compared to crop revenue, micro-level irrigation percentage is more prone to changes under long-term water stress. The modest changes in climate, water supply, and crop prices can lead to the change in irrigation percentage by −86 to 53 units and correspondingly in average crop revenue by −52 to 48 % in Idaho’s most productive region. Seasonal water supply variations only have limited impact on the productivity of the irrigated agricultural sector as a whole. We postulate that average irrigation percentage and farm income will, in effect, increase under Idaho’s institutional water governance in the long run, when junior farmers stop irrigated agriculture practices due to persistent water shortage.

Description: Understanding the glacier mass balance is necessary to explain the rate of shrinkage and to infer the impact of climate change. The present study provides an overview of the glacier mass balance records by glaciological, geodetic, hydrological and accumulation-area ratio (AAR) and specific mass balance relationship methods in the Indian Himalaya since 1970s. It suggests that the mass balance measurements by glaciological methods have been conducted for ten glaciers in the western Himalaya, four glaciers in the central Himalaya and one in the eastern Himalaya. Hydrological mass balance has been conducted only on Siachen Glacier from 1987 to 1991. Geodetic method has been attempted for the Lahaul–Spiti region for a short time span during 1999–2011 and Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region from 2003 to 2008. We compared in situ specific balance data series with specific mass balance derived from AAR and specific mass balance relationship. The results derived from existing and newly presented regression model based on AAR and specific mass balance relationship induced unrealistic specific mass balance for several glaciers. We also revised AAR0 and ELA0 based on available in situ AAR and specific mass balance data series of Indian Himalayan glaciers. In general, in situ specific and cumulative specific mass balance observed over different regions of the Indian Himalayan glaciers shows mostly negative mass balance years with a few positive ones during 1974–2012. On a regional level, the geodetic studies suggest that on the whole western, the central and the eastern Himalaya experienced vast thinning during the last decade (2000s). Conversely, Karakoram region showed slight mass gain during almost similar period. However, the glaciological, hydrological and geodetic mass balance data appear to exhibit short time series bias. We therefore recommend creation of benchmark glaciers network for future research to determine the impact of climate change on the Himalayan cryosphere.

Description: In the drylands of the Upper Blue Nile basin, high climate variability and land degradation are rampant. To enhance adaptive capacity in the region, various soil and water conservation interventions have been implemented. Moreover, water resources development schemes such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam should be implemented by 2025. We modeled the effects of these interventions on surface runoff in the basin for both current and future (2025) basin conditions, using the runoff coefficient method in a spatially explicit approach. Under current conditions, we observed high spatial variability of mean annual runoff. The northeastern Blue Nile-1 sub-basin produces the highest mean annual runoff (391 mm or 10 × 10 9  m 3 ), whereas the northwestern Blue Nile-2 sub-basin produces the lowest mean annual runoff (178 mm or 0.2 × 10 9  m 3 ). The basin generates a total annual runoff volume of 47.7 × 10 9  m 3 , of which about 54 % comes from cultivated land. The strong association between land use and topography masked the direct effect of rainfall on runoff. By 2025, total annual runoff yield could decrease by up to 38 % if appropriate basin-wide soil and water conservation interventions and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are implemented. However, the full effects of most physical structures will only last for 1 or 2 years without regular maintenance. The improved understanding of the dynamics of the Upper Blue Nile basin’s hydrology provided by the present study will help planners to design appropriate management scenarios. Developing the basin’s database remains important for a holistic understanding of the impacts of future development interventions.

Description: Mobile coastal dunes are of significant ecological importance both globally and locally. Yet a large portion of these dunes are disappearing due to encroachment of local shrubs and exotic plants, resulting in changes of floristic and faunal composition, and an overall decrease in biodiversity of coastal systems. Active management is therefore required to maintain mobile dune presence. This study focuses on economic valuation of coastal dunes in Israel, based on public and professional ecological perspectives. This comparison allows reflection on the suitability of a contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess ecological restoration and conservation projects. The CVM was applied in Nizzanim LTER nature reserve in Israel, and concurrently, data of plant species composition on stabilized and mobile dunes were used to calculate the ecological value index (EVI) of the different dune states. The EVI was then transformed into monetary terms by combining the public valuation and the relative proportion of the various species to the total coverage. The monetary values derived from the general public and the ecological assessment were then compared and used to estimate the expected change in economic value resulting from a state shift from mobile to stabilized dunes. According to the CVM, the total value of the Nizzanim coastal dunes would drop from 344 to 197 million Israeli Shekels (NIS) (1 Shekel = $0.39) if active management does not take place, a reduction of 42 % in value. However, results from the EVI indicate only a 33 % decrease in ecological value (in monetary terms) in the absence of active management. We suggest that in this case, general public perception is strong enough to justify conservation decisions, even though they are not professional ecologists. However, we still recommend the use of both measures for land use decision making.

Description: Having access to firewood and charcoal for cooking purposes is essential for the world’s poor. In this paper, we outline the consumption patterns of firewood and charcoal energy recorded at a specific south-western Tanzanian village (Laela) based on a household survey carried out in late 2010 ( n  = 160). We identify varying consumption rates among four relative income classes (rich, above average, self-sufficiency, below self-sufficiency). We furthermore simulate the effects of different dissemination levels (10, 25, 50, 100 %) for a specific type of efficient wood stove over the years 2010, 2015 and 2030, with a predicted increase in future energy consumption rates that correspond with population growth. Our findings suggest that energy consumption will increase until 2030. We also foresee excellent energy-saving potentials in different diffusion and adaptation scenarios. The limitations of the study as well as its developmental potentials are also addressed with one focus on the possible effects on local forests. The factors utilised and the results obtained are discussed and compared with other values drawn from the current literature. Furthermore, the pro-poor development potential is examined by using the energy-saving capacity of different dissemination/adaptation scenarios. Additionally, hurdles and hypothetical setbacks that may occur during the process of efficient stove dissemination are described. In sum, our findings highlight the need for efficient stove diffusion programmes to carefully incorporate weaker income classes within rural communities.

Description: The notion of ecosystem services is considered useful for integrating perceptions and values into decision-making on environment and nature. Sociocultural factors have been suggested to explain perceptions and values assigned to ecosystem services. We examine this by undertaking a sociocultural valuation of ecosystem services provided by the natural park of Sant Llorenç del Munt, located at the edge of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region. Four methods are used, namely a review of the literature on ecosystem services, non-participant observation, semi-structured interviews with stakeholders and a valuation survey among visitors. We assess whether visitors and other stakeholders understand the term ecosystem service, finding that the concept is rather unknown or misunderstood. Among the 28 ecosystem services identified, habitat and cultural services were the most valued. We statistically identify socioeconomic characteristics of visitors that have a main influence on their valuation of ecosystem services. We further assess diverging preferences of all stakeholders that might give rise to conflicting views about policies for protected areas. We draw lessons about the usefulness of the multi-method approach and about the management of protected areas.

Description: Though tiger conservationists almost ubiquitously acknowledge the necessity of landscape approaches and the involvement of local people for effective tiger conservation, reconciling these two needs presents certain challenges for practitioners. Seeking to address both local exigencies and conservation goals, state-sponsored ecodevelopment initiatives have become commonly associated with Project Tiger reserves in India. However, in this essay I argue that by focusing on the proximate sources of tension between tiger conservation and local people (i.e., human–tiger conflict, habitat degradation, and prey depletion), these programs have reinforced the ultimate causes of such tension: the structural inequalities that exists between local people and state organizations. By linking the historical literature with my own fieldwork in the Melghat Tiger Reserve of the Central Indian Highlands, I show how the current structure of ecodevelopment largely mirrors that of colonial forestry by attempting to enforce natural resource property rights in a way that privileges the state and delegitimizes local relational mechanisms of access to natural resources. In doing so, ecodevelopment reflects the political structure that facilitated the rise of conflicts between tigers and people and reinforces the “gridlock of tiger conservation” (Rastogi et al. 2012 ). With this political ecology perspective, I advocate solidarity between conservation practitioners, local people, and state organizations in addressing these structural problems to further conservation efforts. Emphasizing co-management’s ability to accommodate multi-scalar forms of authority, I end by offering three lessons for conservation from Melghat’s experience with colonial forestry and ecodevelopment.

Description: Social learning can be a vital tool in assisting communities to adapt to change. Local governments can be a conduit between the communities they serve and the policy that they are trying to implement. Social learning in this context can be an iterative, often organic process. Based on a case study of coastal planning in South Australia, Australia, this paper presents the results of a qualitative mixed-method approach that documents the aspects of social learning within coastal management and evaluates the various lessons learned by local governments in South Australia. The role of social learning and adaptive governance is discussed. The paper concludes that by deliberatively incorporating the notion of communities of practice into learning frameworks, local governments can more effectively manage their coastal zones in response to global change.

Description: The search for strategies to address ‘super wicked problems’ such as climate change is gaining urgency, and a collaborative governance approach, and adaptive co-management in particular, is increasingly recognized as one such strategy. However, the conditions for adaptive co-management to emerge and the resulting network structures and relational patterns remain unclear in the literature. To address these identified needs, this study examines social relationships from a network perspective while initiating a collaborative multiactor initiative aimed to develop into adaptive co-management for climate change adaptation, an action research project undertaken in the Niagara region of Canada. The project spanned 1 year, and a longitudinal analysis of participants’ networks and level of participation in the process was performed. Evidence of support for climate change adaptation from the process included the development of deliberative and adaptive responses to opportunities presented to the group and the development of a strong subgroup of participants where decision-making was centered. However, the complexity of the challenge of addressing climate change, funding constraints, competing initiatives, and the lack of common views among participants may have contributed to the group, highlighting the finding that beneficial network structural features and relational patterns are necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an adaptive co-management process. The context of climate change adaptation may require a different social network structure and processes than other contexts for adaptive co-management to occur, and there may be limitations to adaptive co-management for dealing with super wicked problems.

Description: Climatic change results in increased occurrence of heat waves, and the thermal stress caused by such phenomena is leading to higher levels of heat-related mortality worldwide. This study is the first to examine the effect of extreme weather on mortality in Cyprus. It investigates the individual effect of meteorological indicators on mortality, as well as the role of particulate air pollution (PM 10 ). A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was implemented. GLM included a temperature function and was adjusted for relative humidity and seasonality. The temperature function was developed under a newly developed framework of distributed lag nonlinear models, which capture nonlinearities and delayed effects of heat simultaneously. GLM was extended to examine the confounding effect of air pollution. All the results on heat effects are presented. High temperatures had a significant effect on mortality with increased mortality rates, independent of humidity and seasonality. Mortality risk increased steeply above a temperature threshold. A direct heat effect was shown, with higher risk on the current and next day of a severe heat event. PM 10 was not found to have a confounding effect on the temperature–mortality relationship, since the strength of this relationship remained after the inclusion of PM 10 in the model. Differences existed between urban and coastal areas.

Description: Recognizing the connections between a culture and its environment provides an important perspective on a neglected aspect of coupled natural and social systems. Based on the history of grassland degradation in Northern China, we found that cultural invasions (the replacement of an indigenous culture by an invading population’s culture) have profoundly affected the local environment and the connections between humans and nature. The environment shapes and is shaped by culture, and we concluded that invasion of a grassland region by an agricultural culture was one of the underlying reasons for land degradation in this region. We discuss how current environmental policy in China, including the ecological migration policy, is inappropriate and harm transmission of important cultural knowledge, and suggest that environmental managers both re-establish traditional practices and find ways for these practices to coexist with newer practices.

Description: This study analyzed the impact of urbanization and the level of economic development on CO 2 emissions using the STIRPAT model and provincial panel data for China. This study classified the 29 provinces of China into three groups (eastern, central, and western regions) and examined regional differences in the environmental impacts of urbanization and economic development levels. The results demonstrated that there was an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and CO 2 emissions in the central and western regions of China. However, we did not confirm the environmental Kuznets curve relationship between urbanization and CO 2 emissions in eastern China, where CO 2 emissions increase monotonically with urbanization. This study showed that the impacts of urbanization differ considerably. There was a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions. However, the point of inflexion was very low, which indicates that economic growth will promote CO 2 emissions in China. The share of the industry output value had a marginal incremental effect on CO 2 emissions. There was a decreasing effect of population scale on CO 2 emissions. Energy efficiency is the main factor that restrains CO 2 emissions, and the effect was higher in regions with low energy efficiency.

Description: Using province-level yield data and daily weather data from 1980 to 2012, we investigated the responses of early rice, middle-season rice, and late rice yields to weather variations in China. In contrast to prior studies that found negative impacts of elevated daily minimum temperature ( T min ) on rice yield in tropical and subtropical regions, we discovered that rising T min increased early and late rice yields in China, with the positive temperature effects varying by rice-growth stage. Consistent with the previous assessments, we found that precipitation had small but negative effects on early and late rice yields. Responses of middle-season rice yield to variations in T min and precipitation are statistically insignificant. The effect of radiation on rice yields also differed by rice variety and rice-growth stage. Our findings provide useful information for developing effective rice-breeding programs and climate adaptation strategies in China.

Description: Livestock production is very risky due to climate variability in semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data collected from 400 households in the Borena zone of the Oromia Region, we explored what drives adoption of agricultural practices that can decrease the vulnerability of agro-pastoralists to climate change. Households with more adaptive capacity adopted a larger number of practices. The households’ adaptive capacity was stronger when the quality of local institutions was high. However, adaptive capacity had less explanatory power in explaining adoption of adaptation options than household socio-economic characteristics, suggesting that aggregating information into one indicator of adaptive capacity for site-specific studies may not help to explain the adoption behaviour of households. Strong local institutions lead to changes in key household-level characteristics (like membership to community groups, years lived in a village, access to credit, financial savings and crop income) which positively affect adoption of agricultural practices. In addition, better local institutions were also positively related to adoption of livestock-related adaptation practices. Poor access to a tarmac road was positively related to intensification and diversification of crop production, whereas it was negatively related to the intensification of livestock production, an important activity for generating cash in the region. Our findings suggest that better local institutions lead to changes in household characteristics, which positively affect adoption of adaptation practices, suggesting that policies should aim to strengthen local institutions.

Description: Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + °N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71° + N). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation ( r  = −0.95). Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.

Description: Reduced river runoff and expected upstream infrastructural developments are both potential threats to irrigation water availability for the downstream countries in Central Asia. Although it has been recurrently mentioned that a reduction in water supply will hamper irrigation in the downstream countries, the magnitude of associated economic losses, economy-wide repercussions on employment rates, and degradation of irrigated lands has not been quantified as yet. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the economy-wide consequences of a reduced water supply in Uzbekistan—a country that encompasses more than half of the entire irrigated croplands in Central Asia. Modeling findings showed that a 10–20 % reduction in water supply, as expected in the near future, may reduce the areas to be irrigated by 241,000–374,000 hectares and may cause unemployment to a population of 712–868,000, resulting in a loss for the national income of 3.6–4.3 %. A series of technical, financial, and institutional measures, implementable at all levels starting from the farm to the basin scale, are discussed for reducing the expected water risks. The prospects of improving the basin-wide water management governance, increasing water and energy use efficiency, and establishing the necessary legal and institutional frameworks for enhancing the introduction of needed technological and socioeconomic change are argued as options for gaining more regional water security and equity.

Description: The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO 2 e ha −1  y −1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO 2 e y −1 . Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.

Description: Freshwater aquaculture plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh, providing food, income, livelihoods and export earnings. However, freshwater aquaculture in the Mymensingh area of north-central Bangladesh has been accompanied by recent concerns over climate change. Field survey revealed that different climatic variables including flood, drought, rainfall variation and temperature fluctuation have had adverse effects on pond-fish culture. These climatic variables have detrimental effects on the ecosystem of ponds and thus affect survival, growth and production of fish. Changes in climatic variables have adverse effects on fish reproduction, grow-out operation, parasite infestation and disease occurrence. Considering vulnerability to the effects of climate change on pond-fish culture, we propose adaptation strategies that need to be introduced to cope with the challenges.

Description: Assessments of land-system change have dominantly focused on conversions among broad land-use categories, whereas intensity changes within these categories have received less attention. Considering that both modes of land change typically result in diverse patterns and trajectories of land-system change, there is a need to develop approaches to reduce this complexity. Using Europe as a case study, we applied a clustering approach based on self-organising maps and 12 land-use indicators to map (1) land-system archetypes for the year 2006, defined as characteristic patterns of land-use extent and intensity, and (2) archetypical change trajectories, defined as characteristic changes in these indicators between 1990 and 2006. Our analysis identified 15 land-system archetypes, with low-intensity archetypes dominating (ca. 55 % coverage) followed by high-intensity archetypes (ca. 26 %). In terms of change, we identified 17 archetypical change trajectories, clustered in four broad categories. Stable land systems were most widespread (ca. 40 % of the EU27), followed by land systems characterised by land-use conversions (ca. 26 %), de-intensification trends (ca. 18 %), and intensification trends (ca. 15 %). Intensively used and intensifying land systems were particularly widespread in Western Europe, whereas low-intensity and de-intensifying land systems dominated in Europe’s east. Comparing our archetypes with environmental and socio-economic factors revealed that good accessibility and favourable topographic, climatic, and soil conditions characterised intensively managed areas. Intensification was also most common in these areas, suggesting an ongoing polarisation of intensification in favourable areas and de-intensification and abandonment trends in more marginal areas. By providing spatially and thematically improved maps of land-use patterns and changes therein, our archetypes could serve as useful inputs for more detailed assessments of ecosystem service demand and supply, as well as explorations of land-system change trade-offs, especially with regard to land-use intensity. Further, they could serve useful for identifying regions within which similar policy tools could be valuable to develop regionalised, context-specific land-management policies to steer European land systems onto desired pathways.

Description: We assessed occupancy for tigers Panthera tigris across Kanha–Pench corridor (KPC) in Madhya Pradesh, India. Tiger presence information was recorded by sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 17 grids, each of 100 km 2 . We used spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. We modelled occupancy ( ψ ) as a function of proportion of forested habitat, relative occurrence of prey species, and anthropogenic disturbances. Models were developed using a first-order Markovian dependence model implemented in program PRESENCE. Our results show that density of prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants affecting tiger presence. We estimated that of the 2200 km 2 potential tiger habitat available in KPC, tigers occupy 84 %, or an area of 1848 km 2 (SE = 332.64 km 2 ). Model averaging resulted in a replicate level detection probability p (SE) = 0.33 (0.08) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of ψ (SE) = 0.84 (0.18). Landscape-level occupancy sign surveys are useful to assess large carnivore spatial distributions and determine factors governing their presence or absence. Occupancy results support earlier findings that prey presence and absence of human disturbance were key determinants for survival of tigers. We highlight the importance of corridors, habitats, and linkages which are important lifelines for large carnivores, tigers in particular. We discuss current infrastructural development pressure in the area and provide recommendations on critical local linkages to focus conservation efforts to maintain and improve current habitat connectivity for tigers and other carnivores in the area.

Description: Hunting plays an important socioeconomic role in the semi-arid region of Brazil, by supplying meat and other products. Nevertheless, there is a lack of information on which species are most used by the local populations and what are the implications for conservation of exploited animals. This paper explores the bushmeat consumption in the Brazilian Caatinga region, where wild animals comprise an important protein source. A questionnaire was used to gather information from hunters, and the consumption of bushmeat by their families was monitored. Interviews revealed that 58 vertebrate species could potentially be consumed as bushmeat, but the samples provided by the monitored families comprised only 28 species. Birds were the animals most consumed, followed by mammals, although the biomass of both groups was similar. The consumption of bushmeat was not correlated with hunters’ socioeconomic data (income, age or schooling). Hunters recognized that the populations of some game species appeared to be declining, showing that bushmeat consumption, together with the cultural, economic and social aspects of the human populations involved in hunting, should be considered when discussing the conservation of animal resources in the Caatinga region.

Description: In Central Europe, management of forests for multiple ecosystem services (ES) has a long tradition and is currently drawing much attention due to increasing interest in non-timber services. In face of a changing climate and diverse ES portfolios, a key issue for forest managers is to assess vulnerability of ES provisioning. In a case study catchment of 250 ha in the Eastern Alps, the currently practiced uneven-aged management regime (BAU; business as usual) which is based on irregularly shaped patch cuts along skyline corridors was analysed under historic climate (represented by the period 1961–1990) and five transient climate change scenarios (period 2010–2110) and compared to an unmanaged scenario (NOM). The study addressed (1) the future provisioning of timber, carbon sequestration, protection against gravitational hazards, and nature conservation values under BAU management, (2) the effect of spatial scale (1, 5, 10 ha grain size) in mapping ES indicators and (3) how the spatial scale of ES assessment affects the simultaneous provision of several ES (i.e. multifunctionality). The analysis employed the PICUS forest simulation model in combination with novel landscape assessment tools. In BAU management, timber harvests were smaller than periodic increments. The resulting increase in standing stock benefitted carbon sequestration. In four out of five climate change scenarios, volume increment was increasing. With the exception of the mildest climate change scenario (+2.6 °C, no change in precipitation), all other analysed climate change scenarios reduced standing tree volume, carbon pools and number of large old trees, and increased standing deadwood volume due to an intensifying bark beetle disturbance regime. However, increases in deadwood and patchy canopy openings benefitted bird habitat quality. Under historic climate, the NOM regime showed better performance in all non-timber ES. Under climate change conditions, the damages from bark beetle disturbances increased more in NOM compared with BAU. Despite favourable temperature conditions in climate change scenarios, the share of admixed broadleaved species was not increasing in BAU management, mainly due to the heavy browsing pressure by ungulates. In NOM, it even decreased and mean tree age increased. Thus, in the long run NOM may enter a phase of lower resilience compared with BAU. Most ES indicators were fairly insensitive to the spatial scale of indicator mapping. ES indicators that were based on sparse tree and stand attributes such as rare admixed tree species, large snags and live trees achieved better results when mapped at larger scales. The share of landscape area with simultaneous provisioning of ES at reasonable performance levels (i.e. multifunctionality) decreased with increasing number of considered ES, while it increased with increasing spatial scale of the assessment. In the case study, landscape between 53 and 100 % was classified as multifunctional, depending on number and combinations of ES.

Description: Understanding changes in forest composition and structure is important to help formulate effective policies that promote future ability of forests to provide local livelihood needs, habitat and ecosystem services. This is particularly important in dry tropical forests that are ecologically different from other forests and are heavily used by local, forest-dependent residents. In this study, we identify biophysical, demographic and use factors associated with differences in species diversity, vegetation structure (abundance at different size classes), biomass and relative abundance of species across the Kanha–Pench landscape in Central India. We sampled vegetation in twenty transects across different human and livestock population densities and frequencies of use. We found that biomass, species diversity and vegetation (abundance at different size classes) are negatively associated with increasing population density, and species composition at different size classes is significantly different at higher frequencies of use at low population densities. Lack of difference in species composition at high population densities may be due to colonization and growth of individuals at some of these sites due to creation of new ecological niches and gaps at high human use. Relative abundance of species at different size classes also varies with frequency of use and population density. Results suggest that human use is altering relative abundance of species, which may change long-term forest composition and thus alter biomass and vegetation structure of the forest. We conclude that human use is an agent in altering long-term composition that can alter availability of tree species for local use and other ecosystem services.

Description: We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.

Description: While adaptation has received a fair amount of attention in the climate change debate, barriers to adaptation are the focus of a more specific, recent discussion. In this discussion, such barriers are generally treated as having a uniform, negative impact on all actors. However, we argue that the precise nature and impact of such barriers on different actors has so far been largely overlooked. Our study of two drought-prone communities in rural Ethiopia sets out to examine how female- and male-headed households adapt to climate change, particularly focusing on how a variety of barriers influence the choice of adaptation measures to varying extents. To this purpose, we built a conceptual framework based on the Sustainable Livelihood Approach . Data were collected using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with male- and female-headed households, community leaders and local extension workers. Our findings suggest that gender-based differences in the choice of adaptation measures at the household level are driven by cultural, social, financial and institutional barriers. Barriers to adaptation—particularly when interacting—have a differentiated impact upon different actors. This outcome hints at the need for donors and policymakers to develop intervention strategies that are sensitive to this fact.

Description: Many mountainous regions worldwide are characterized by harsh environments, scarce infrastructure, and extreme contrasts between mountains and neighboring plateaus and plains. Transhumance is a social adaptation to handle geomorphological heterogeneity such as lowlands and highlands, and to cope with environmental variability (seasonal and regional rainfall and snowfall). We studied the regional transhumant system with a network approach in the Andes of North Patagonia, Argentina. We measured the connectivity promoted by the seasonal movements of herds and people (relationships) among different ecosystems (nodes), defined as winter and summer lands. We identified 238 networks. The highest frequencies corresponded to small network structures (dyads and triads), suggesting that landscape management is highly decentralized. Network complexity was positively related to ecological richness and diversity of connected nodes. However, most networks were dependent upon a central node, suggesting vulnerable situations regarding disturbances affecting such key nodes. The identification of social–ecological traps of this mobile system provided novel insights for policy decision making, which otherwise would not be evidenced with traditional approaches. Management proposals and policy making should consider the spatial and temporal scales of transhumant pastoralism, in order to avoid problems derived from fixation logics, scale mismatches, and disconnection.

Description: Recent studies suggest that carbon (C) is stored in the topsoil of pastures established after deforestation. However, little is known about the long-term capacity of tropical pastures to sequester C in different soil layers after deforestation. Deep soil layers are generally not taken into consideration or are underestimated when C storage is calculated. Here we show that in French Guiana, the C stored in the deep soil layers contributes significantly to C stocks down to a depth of 100 cm and that C is sequestered in recalcitrant soil organic matter in the soil below a depth of 20 cm. The contribution of the 50–100 cm soil layer increased from 22 to 31 % with the age of the pasture. We show that long-term C sequestration in C4 tropical pastures is linked to the development of C3 species (legumes and shrubs), which increase both inputs of N into the ecosystem and the C:N ratio of soil organic matter. The deep soil under old pastures contained more C3 carbon than the native forest. If C sequestration in the deep soil is taken into account, our results suggest that the soil C stock in pastures in Amazonia would be higher with sustainable pasture management, in particular by promoting the development of legumes already in place and by introducing new species.

Description: According to IPCC reports, the Mediterranean basin and particularly the North African area are amongst the most vulnerable regions to climate change. However, the information concerning the North African zone is very limited, and studies on climate change have never been conducted in Algeria up to now. This paper aims at bridging this information gap and initiates a first research on the impact of climate change on durum wheat cropping, the most strategic commodity in the food system and in the national economy of Algeria. Climate projections for the distant future (2071–2100), obtained from the ARPEGE-Climate model of Météo-France run under the medium A1B SRES scenario, are introduced into a simple agrometeorological crop model previously validated with field data. Two options for the sowing date are assessed: a dynamical date, chosen within the traditional sowing window by means of a rainfall criterion, or a prescribed date with supplemental irrigation on the same day. Crop development is modelled using thermal time, and maximum yield is determined from the accumulation of solar radiation. A water stress index is inferred from a daily water balance model, and actual yield is estimated from potential yield corrected by the water stress index. The model also takes into account the occurrence of dry periods during the growing season, which can induce partial or total failure of the crop cycle. Two stations, representative of two of the three agroclimatic areas where durum wheat is grown, were chosen: Algiers in the central northern region and Bordj Bou Arreridj in the eastern high plains. Climate change is not similar for both areas, but a tendency towards aridity is clear especially in spring. Future temperature and potential evapotranspiration increase in both regions with a maximum in spring and summer. In Algiers, rainfall will decrease throughout the year and mainly in spring and summer. Conversely, summer precipitation in Bordj Bou Arreridj will increase significantly. In both regions, the autumn rains will increase in the future climate, the possibilities of early sowing will be improved, crop cycle will be reduced, and harvest will take place earlier. In Algiers, yields tend to decrease in the future climate, whereas in Bordj Bou Arreridj, a dynamical (earlier) sowing will tend to keep yields at their current level.

Description: Our research addresses the gap in scientific research on the fine-grain spatial patterns and social–ecological interactions of land use and agrobiodiversity. The spatial dimension of agrobiodiversity dynamics potentially strengthens the social–ecological resilience and food security of smallholders by buffering risk and vulnerability. Our research integrates the scientific theories, concepts, and methods of spatial externalities, social–ecological interactions, geospatial land and global change sciences, and political ecology. We designed a case study of the Arbieto-Tarata landscape in the Bolivian Andes that comprises a globally significant agrobiodiversity hot spot of Andean maize. The Arbieto-Tarata landscape, which contains nearly 8000 fields at 2500–2800 masl, is representative of mixed-use smallholder agri-food systems amid global changes. Our research predicts spatial spillover and edge effects of combined social and environmental factors leading to the clustering of same-crop fields. Findings reveal significant levels of the predicted clustering between 2006 and 2012. The degree of this clustering is found to differ among geographic and environmental sub-areas reflecting fine-grain variation of local causal linkages. Extra-local causal linkages include high levels of migration, water resource shortages, and urbanization. Results show the influences of informal and formal coordination in the spatial clustering of same-crop fields. This field-level coordination improves the efficiency of resource allocations and lowers costs of production. It enables the viability of high-agrobiodiversity Andean maize in smallholder land use and agri-food systems amid global changes. The article discusses the broader policy and scientific implications of these findings including scaling up and support of the social–ecological resilience of agrobiodiversity globally.

Description: The consumption and production of food products in the municipality of Lisbon in the 1890–1900 decade is assessed with the support of historical cartography and statistical resources. For the first time, food production in a municipality in the turn to the twentieth century is accounted and simultaneously subject of a visual analysis of the land used for agriculture and of the water infrastructures that supported such uses. Agriculture occupied at least 40 % of the territory of the city, while the built environment occupied no more than 16 % of the territory. However, local production of food was far from supplying most of the citizens’ needs, and substantial food imports were needed. In this context, the municipality behaved like a heterotrophic system, highly dependent on the external supply of resources. Moreover, comparing to other European cities at the time Lisbon was facing in the end of the nineteenth century a late and slow transition from an agrarian social metabolism to an industrial one, suggesting that Lisbon was still relatively high-solar-powered as compared to other European cities at the time that were already highly fossil-fuel-powered.

Description: We examined landscape exposure to wildfire potential, insects and disease risk, and urban and exurban development for the conterminous US (CONUS). Our analysis relied on spatial data used by federal agencies to evaluate these stressors nationally. We combined stressor data with a climate change exposure metric to identify when temperature is likely to depart from historical conditions and become “unprecedented.” We used a neighborhood analysis procedure based on key stressor thresholds within a geographic information system to examine the extent of landscape exposure to our set of individual and coinciding stressors. Our focus is on identifying large contiguous areas of stress exposure which would be of national concern to identify potential locations most vulnerable to resulting ecological and social disruption. The arrival of record-setting temperatures may be both rapid and widespread within the CONUS under RCP8.5. By 2060, 91 % of the CONUS could depart from the climate of the last century. While much of the CONUS may be impacted by at least one of the landscape stressors we examined, multiple coinciding stressors occurred for less than 9 % of the CONUS. The two most prevalent coinciding stressors were (1) wildfire potential combined with insects and disease risk, and (2) climate departure combined with urban and exurban development. Combined exposure to three or more stressors was rare, but we did identify several localized high-population areas that may be vulnerable to future change. Additional assessment and research for these areas may provide early and proactive approaches to mitigating multiple stressor exposure.

Description: This study applied catchment modeling to examine the potential effects of climate change and future land management variations on streamflow and microbial transport sensitivities for two locations in the west of Ireland (Black River and Fergus River). Simulations focused on plausible combined scenarios of climate, population and agricultural production variations for the 2041–2060 period and compares resultant impacts to a baseline existing period (1994–2007). The variations in monthly, seasonal and annual streamflow, and the daily microbial load (for E. coli ) were used to assess sensitivities. Results indicate that possible future changes in microbial load for both the Fergus and Black catchments typically follow projected seasonal fluctuations in precipitation and streamflow. Increased winter rainfall (intensity and frequency) will cause significant impacts on microbial transport, representing a period of increased risk. An increase in microbial source loads to land, concomitantly with projected changes in climate is likely to exert greater microbial pollutant pressures on surface waters. The simulated scenarios, and resultant microbial load changes, suggest that future variations in land use/management may be as important as the effects of climate change on in-stream microbial pollutant loads. Outcomes from this study can prove useful for informing water resource managers and other decision makers about potential impacts. This information can instigate the development of adaptation measures needed to alleviate increased catchment pollution from microbial contaminants (and other pollutants) in future years.

Description: African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm populations. We summarize the current understanding on impacts and vulnerability and highlight key knowledge gaps for the separate system components and the mixed farming systems as a whole. Numerous adaptation and mitigation options exist for crop–livestock systems. We provide an overview by distinguishing risk management, diversification and sustainable intensification strategies, and by focusing on the contribution to the three pillars of climate-smart agriculture. Despite the potential solutions, smallholders face major constraints at various scales, including small farm sizes, the lack of response to the proposed measures and the multi-functionality of the livestock herd. Major institutional barriers include poor access to markets and relevant knowledge, land tenure insecurity and the common property status of most grazing resources. These limit the adoption potential and hence the potential impact on resilience and mitigation. In order to effectively inform decision-making, we therefore call for integrated, system-oriented impact assessments and a realistic consideration of the adoption constraints in smallholder systems. Building on agricultural system model development, integrated impact assessments and scenario analyses can inform the co-design and implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.F

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Streamflow dynamics are sensitive to both climate variability and land use change. However, estimating their separate and combined effects remains a research challenge. In South Africa, streamflow dynamics are important not only for irrigated agriculture but also for many rural communities that depend on streamflow for domestic water supply. In this paper, we analysed the effects of pine, wattle and eucalyptus plantation cover change vis-à-vis the effects of inter-annual climate variability on streamflow dynamics of the Upper Umvoti River in South Africa from 1994 to 2016. We modelled inter-annual variability in streamflow by precipitation, temperature and plantation cover using the Bayesian inference. We mapped plantation cover from Landsat satellite imagery. We found strong evidence for an interaction between temperature range and plantation cover net change on streamflow. Specifically, the plantation effect weakened under conditions of high-temperature range anomalies. We explain this interaction with a shift in soil water repellency and interception capacity within the plantation area under a changing temperature range, with important implications for the formation of surface runoff. Previous studies have assumed that the effects of climate variability and plantation cover change on streamflow dynamics are independent. Our results call this assumption into question. Hence, climate and land cover interdependencies should be accounted for in future statistical and process-based modelling studies.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Landscapes are being impacted by rapid change, especially by diversifying energy industries. As this process occurs, habitats with little development and fragmentation are now facing increasing anthropogenic change. We studied current patterns of land use and ecosystem services costs of energy development and predicted future impacts in the US Chihuahuan Desert. We measured land developed and modified by oil and gas, wind, and solar industries and mapped levels of development and fragmentation across the US Chihuahuan Desert, followed by an estimation of annual energy-related ecosystem services costs. Based on energy resource estimates, we then projected future risk of development in the bioregion. The oil and gas industry has developed and fragmented about 27% (58,000 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉) of the US Chihuahuan Desert. Wind and solar comprise small amounts of development and fragmentation. We estimated annual ecosystem services costs of all energy industries at 180 million USD, concentrated in climate regulation, raw materials, and cultural services. Two-thirds of the desert remains relatively unfragmented in a contiguous corridor along the western portion of the bioregion. However, this corridor is threatened by energy expansion, especially wind and solar energy. With this expansion, the bioregion could become highly fragmented and continuity of habitats compromised. We suggest conservation efforts focus on the remaining corridor, while future energy development should occur in areas already highly modified by energy infrastructure. With continuing expansion and diversification of global energy sources, our findings in the Chihuahuan Desert could represent threats to other ecologically valuable bioregions that have historically experienced little industrial development.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Drought directly and indirectly affects the entire socio-economic and environmental sectors in southwestern Germany. Such impacts are a result of the drought hazard and an underlying vulnerability of the systems. With respect to climate change and the dynamics of vulnerability over time, it becomes crucial to investigate the preceding components, in order to understand possible future magnitudes of the hazard and drivers of drought impacts. Therefore, drought indices were generated from the early nineteenth century in order to identify exceptional meteorological summer droughts. Documentary evidence and historical yield statistics were used to contextualise historical drought events by drought impacts and responses. Considering both, selected summer drought events were analysed and mutually compared based on the impact on society and ecology, as well as societal responses to these. The derived standardised indices highlight differences between severe droughts in duration and temporal peculiarity and put into perspective the current understanding of the intensity of recent drought hazards. The discourse analysis reveals that the propagation of drought and the kinds of impacts have remained rather similar through time, only shifting to modern livelihood assets. However, vulnerability, which strongly depends on the societal contexts, has changed over time and lowered severity of impacts, especially with regard to food and water supply, as well as human health.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In the context of global change, the South of Gard coastal region in southern France is building up an adaptation plan in order to reduce vulnerability to several external drivers, including demographic growth, sea rise, and a new environmental directive from the European Union. However, adaptations which would reduce the vulnerability of some stakeholders might increase that of others. To explore transfers of vulnerability and their consequences with local stakeholders, we designed a serious game where players take the roles of sectoral planners in different places and on different scales of the territory. We organized a game session with 50 elected people and experts coming from various sectors. This experiment showed that adaptations on the local regional scale make it possible to cope temporarily with the pressures of global change by transferring these pressures to other sub-regions, other sectors, or even other scales. Analyzing the game session, we observed four categories of vulnerability transfers: transfers that were prevented by anticipation, transfers that were prevented by chance (non-purposely), transfers that were limited by a reaction (a posteriori), and transfers that simply occurred. Transfers prevented by anticipation required complex integration of local and sectoral adaptations. Urban growth linked to strategic retreat adaptations, which was identified as the major pressure, could be partly dealt with by trade-offs involving negotiations between several sectors in several places and at several scales.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Global historical cropland datasets allocate cropland areas into grids above on the assumption that land suitable for crops is similar to that in the present or changeless over time. However, land suitability has changed over time. The Dongting Plain, which is full of polders, is characterized by changing land suitability for crops over the past 300 years and provides a case study of the impact of changing land suitability on spatially explicit reconstructions. Here, cropland areas were reconstructed at the county level and allocated into grids at 0.5′ × 0.5′. This allocation was based on the expansion of polders, which indicated land suitable for crops. The results showed the following: (1) The land suitable for crops constituted 68.24% of the total area in 1750 and it expanded after 1850, which in 1911, 1949, and 1985 was 1.10, 1.18, and 1.25 times that of 1750, respectively. (2) The regional cropland area fraction was 21.60% in 1750 and it increased after 1850, which in 1911, 1949, and 1985 was 127.21%, 140.27%, and 156.03% that of 1750. (3) The grids with cropland fractions increased due to polder development by more than 30% in the middle of the region from 1750 to 1985, occupying 32.16% of the total grids. (4) Changes in the land suitability for crops impacted the spatially explicit reconstruction. The grids unsuitable for crops were 78, 46, and 28 in 1850, 1911, and 1949 at 0.5′ × 0.5′, which constituted 19.21%, 11.33%, and 6.90% of the total grids, respectively. In comparison with this study, some of the grids unsuitable for crops were allocated as cropland by HYDE 3.2 and covered 93.59%, 89.13%, and 82.14% of the total unsuitable girds.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉All over the world, there is a pressing need to better understand how climate change has been incorporated into governmental agendas, and evaluate the status of adaptation planning and interventions at the local level. In this paper, we seek to contribute towards bridging this gap by identifying local practices connected to climate adaptation in six large Brazilian cities, and presenting a framework, based on the existing literature, for assessing constraints to adaptation across the municipal level. Although local governments are not the only actors who can take the lead through their actions, the employed framework considers that effective adaptation planning in urban areas is highly dependent on municipal efforts. Our findings indicate that six aspects have the highest levels of impact on adaptation in the Brazilian cities studied: administrative practices, political will, level of commitment, mismatch between the scale of urban issues and the extent of local government authority, pressures from private sectors, and inspection. Although these barriers are not specific only to climate issues and can be identified in other environmental arenas, when combined, they cause and worsen constraints to advancing urban adaptation at the local level. Specifically concerning the local dynamics of urban planning, the combination of pressures from private sectors and insufficient inspection negatively affects the ability of these cities to consolidate adaptation interventions. Our results are helpful in the context of large cities, particularly in Global South, where, as in Brazil, competitive urbanism and specific interest groups confront municipal efforts, and make achieving adaptation more difficult.〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉The article which was recently published contained error. The second given names “Andrade” and “de Lucia” were captured as particles. Given in this article is the correct naming of authors.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This study investigates the effects of instream water rights on river water conservation in Oregon in the USA. The instream water rights in Oregon were established in 1987 for the purpose of maintaining the water level and preserving the environment. “Instream” is usually defined as water for ecological conservation, landscape preservation, and recreation activities. Instream water rights in Oregon are under the control of the state government, which is trusted by the public to administer these rights. Each instream water right is given a priority order, in the same way as appropriative water rights, and is dealt with according to each priority order. That is, if the priority ranking of an appropriative water right is higher than that of an instream water right, the former is given priority over the latter in the case of drought. Therefore, it is anticipated that the effects of instream water rights on the environment would be limited, but there are no studies that empirically examine this. In order to fill in the gap, a regression analysis is conducted by using a time series data on streamflows of John Day River, Grant County, Oregon. The results of this empirical analysis show that the impact of the instream water rights on the environment is limited, but that they are positive for river environments.〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉The article which was recently published contained a minor error in Figure 1. The author incorrectly sent Figure 1, relating to another study (Carpobrotus not Streptopelia). The correct figure is given in this article.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Assessing the sustainability of livestock production involves understanding trade-offs among indicators of performance and environmental impact at multiple levels (i.e. animal, farm, regional, global). To date, most studies have focused on animal/farm levels. There is a need to move towards a regional level where several livestock species and plant resources combine, along with biophysical and socioecological characteristics. The objective of this study was (i) to assess the performance and environmental impact across livestock-dominated areas in France and (ii) to identify and explore trade-offs among performance/impact indicators. A set of indicators was derived from an inventory of nitrogen (N) flows computed across 48 French departments. Analysis of indicator relationships revealed trade-offs for which spatial decomposition was mapped. At the level of the 48 departments, gains in livestock N use efficiency and animal source food production often compromised other dimensions: N surplus and N self-sufficiency. These trade-offs suggested how unlikely are simultaneous gains in provision of animal source food and low environmental impact (i.e. decreased N surplus). The spatial decomposition of trade-offs showed that a few areas achieved moderate levels of animal source food at high livestock N use efficiency and high N self-sufficiency, along with low levels of environmental impacts (low N surplus and low N excretion emissions). These findings highlight the importance of areas emphasizing grazing, where livestock transforms human-inedible resources into high-quality animal source food with high production performance and low environmental impact. Our results show that improvement of sustainability requires a solution for the regional level in complement to the farm level.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉To assess the dynamics of changes in CORINE Land Cover classes in areas of the Natura 2000 ecological network, three landscape metrics were examined. Traditional pixel-based classification, with majority rules aggregation based on the example of the CORINE Land Cover dataset, was applied. To identify the possible differences in the considered metrics, according to the year as well as to the country, statistical analysis between the linear mixed model and the variance model with repeated measurements was performed. The results of both tests are very similar. In the 1990–2012 period, the share of CORINE Land Cover class “Artificial areas” in all tested areas increased by 21.1% (the highest growth ratios were recorded in Poland, Portugal, Slovenia and in Spain). On the other hand, such countries as Slovakia, Romania, Germany, Lithuania and Estonia are characterised by the loss of artificial areas. At the same time, the share of “Forest and semi-natural areas” as well as “Water bodies” increased slightly. Negative trends that took place in the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 were effectively stopped in the subsequent period, 2006–2012. Overall, for all the analysed countries, a minimal loss in environmental and landscape diversity was observed. Our results may be used as a basis for drawing conclusions on the effectiveness of environmental and landscape management systems in various countries. They might also constitute the starting point for detailed analysis of the management process.〈/p〉