ALBERT

Description: As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate. This article discusses several discourses around migration options for people affected by climate change impacts in small island developing states. Options currently available to citizens of the Pacific nations of Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are explored, including the perspective that high levels of customary land tenure in the Pacific are a barrier to permanent movement to other Pacific countries. Migration to Pacific Rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA is complicated by strict migration eligibility criteria, which often require proof of language abilities and income, and may restrict the number of accompanying dependants. The Compact of Free Association provides visa-free entry to the USA for citizens of the Marshall Islands, but the lack of financial assistance restricts eligibility to those with existing financial resources or family networks that can provide access to capital. The difficulty of directly attributing single weather/climate events to climate change hinders the formulation of a definition of climate change-related migration. This obstacle in turn hinders the establishment of effective visa categories and migration routes for what is likely to become a growing number of people in coming decades.

Description: There has been a significant lack of land cover change studies in relation to deforestation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea). The purpose of this study is to characterize deforestation in North Korea through land cover change trajectory and spatial analysis. We used three 30-m gridded land cover data sets for North Korea representing the conditions of the late 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, respectively, as well as a digital elevation model. We examined the land cover trajectories during the two decades, i.e., which land cover became which at the pixel level. In addition, we calculated topographic characteristics of deforested pixels. Major findings from the study are summarized as follows: (1) net forest loss in North Korea was negligible in the latter decade compared to the former (〉5000 km 2 ), whereas other land cover changes were still active; (2) as a result of deforestation, forest land cover became mostly agricultural, particularly in the latter decade (95 %); (3) expansion of agricultural land cover continued during the time, increasing by 〉42 %; and (4) elevation and slope of deforested areas decreased slightly in the latter decade. The key contribution of the study is that it has demonstrated which land cover became which at the 30-m pixel level, complementing existing studies that examined overall forest stock in North Korea.

Description: Soil carbon stocks of 29 plots along a transect through tropical Brazil showed only minor soil carbon losses after land use shift, although replacement of forest-derived carbon was detectable in subsoil and topsoil, indicating that new equilibria in soil carbon stocks might not have been reached after deforestation. The proportion of carbon lost from soils was negligible as compared to the emissions from biomass reduction by deforestation itself. Industrial agriculture had the best ratio between food production and carbon loss, pointing toward a potential reduction of deforestation pressure by further agricultural intensification, which is not achieved in practice due to institutional obstacles and uneven benefit sharing. In contrast, farmers at the agricultural frontier were identified as change agents if alternative sustainable land uses, taking advantage of biodiversity-related ecosystem services, are fostered by better access to credit lines and extension management. Thus, constraining the climate change debate in agriculture to sole management of carbon stock changes in soil is misleading and draws the attention from the most urgent problems: deforestation caused by wrong incentives.

Description: Agriculture has been identified as a major driver of the current significant changes in farmland biodiversity. Taking into account these environmental impacts, agriculture today aims at a more sustainable way of producing that would reconcile its economic and ecological functions. A new approach based on bio-economic modeling has been recently developed to explore different facets of such reconciliation and to understand how to promote sustainable agricultural public policies. In this paper, we review the contributions of such approach. The review shows that it is possible to reconcile agriculture and biodiversity with public policies, since it is possible to increase simultaneously the economic and ecological performances of agricultural landscapes compared to the current trends. However, it is not possible to optimize this reconciliation: The different criteria cannot be maximized simultaneously, and some trade-offs emerge between economic and ecological criteria in optimality. To go further, some bio-economic studies open new perspectives. For example, they suggest studying the society as a whole instead of focusing on the agricultural sector or going beyond the concept of optimality by stressing the idea of viability. In addition to reforming the current agricultural policies, deeper debates on the notion of sustainability have to be held.

Description: Nomadic pastoralism and transhumance are ancient human adaptations to the movements of large herbivores, which themselves migrate to follow favorable environmental conditions. Free-ranging livestock production has been criticized as less water efficient than factory farming and crop production. This fails to take into account both the additional ecosystem services made possible by rainfall over rangelands, and the ability of free-ranging animals to track water availability across environmental gradients. By analogy to transhumance, we propose a model of “transhumant rewilding,” or species reintroduction with managed herding of wild ungulates for the ecological restoration and sustainability of food production in (silvo)pastoral systems. We consider preliminary evidence for the feasibility of this model with a case study from central Chile in which guanacos ( Lama guanicoe ) could be used to help restore a silvopastoral savanna (“espinal”) via browsing and endozoochory. First, we present preliminary data on guanaco foraging in espinal. Second, we use a GIS analysis to identify least-cost paths between areas of high and low espinal condition in central Chile and assess the feasibility of using them as migratory pathways. Finally, we consider the relative ecosystem service advantages and costs of the transhumant rewilding scenario compared to other restoration and agricultural development scenarios for central Chile. We conclude that transhumant rewilding has the potential to be a useful model for rewilding-inspired land management in cultural landscapes and can contribute to food security and sustainable agricultural production.

Description: Although night-time water relations have been studied in different plant species in the last decade, there is limited information about the impact of climate variables on endogenous regulation of night-time water relations in trees. The aim of the current study was to elucidate how long-term exposure to increased air humidity impacts night-time gaseous and liquid phase conductance and gas exchange in cut shoots of hybrid aspen ( Populus tremula L. ×  P. tremuloides Michx.) sampled from the free air humidity manipulation experimental site and measured at constant air relative humidity (RH) level in a growth chamber. Neither the early-night leaf conductance ( g n1 ) nor canopy conductance ( g c ) differed ( P  〉 0.05) between the humidification (H) and control (C) treatments. However, there was a significant ( P  〈 0.01) difference in predawn leaf conductance ( g n5 ) and shoot hydraulic conductance ( K 5 ) between the treatments, with the shoots from the H treatment opening their stomata more efficiently before dawn. Both the early-night dark respiration ( R 1 ) and height increment of stump sprouts were significantly higher ( P  〈 0.01) in the control than in the H treatment. Although the relationship between g n5 and predawn dark respiration ( R 5 ) was statistically significant ( P  〈 0.01) in the H treatment, the g n5 did not depend on R 5 in the C treatment. Our findings suggest that endogenous increase in predawn water flux associates with decreased growth rate of hybrid aspen grown at elevated RH. Thus, regional changes in air humidity may potentially impact night-time water relations in fast-growing tree species like hybrid aspen.

Description: Livestock systems play an important role in the livelihoods of many rural communities in Sub-Saharan Africa while being responsible for an important share of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. This study aimed to evaluate the potential for adoption of climate smart agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan livestock systems, related to the improvement in feed, animal husbandry, and grassland management. These practices present productivity and mitigation benefits and in some cases may also contribute to enhance resilience. In this study, we used a data set of 1538 farm households across nine Sub-Saharan countries. A mixed logit model was used to assess the influence on adoption and to estimate the probability of adoption. Our results show that there seems to be stronger influence of physical and financial capitals on adoption than the other capitals. Different types of capitals influence the uptake of different agricultural practices. Yet the probability of adoption would change across countries. The results of this study could help to refine adoption estimates calculated through global or regional modelling approaches and to inform the design of policies to better target investments in order to foster adoption.

Description: Salt marshes persist within the intertidal zone when marsh elevation gains are commensurate with rates of sea-level rise (SLR). Monitoring changes in marsh elevation in concert with tidal water levels is therefore an effective way to determine if salt marshes are keeping pace with SLR over time. Surface elevation tables (SETs) are a common method for collecting precise data on marsh elevation change. Southern New England is a hot spot for SLR, but few SET elevation change datasets are available for the region. Our study synthesizes elevation change data collected from 1999 to 2015 from a network of SET stations throughout Rhode Island (RI). These data are compared to accretion and water level data from the same time period to estimate shallow subsidence and determine whether marshes are tracking SLR. Salt marsh elevation increased at a mean overall rate of 1.40 mm year −1 and ranged from −0.33 to 3.36 mm year −1 at individual stations. Shallow subsidence dampened elevation gain in mid-Narragansett Bay marshes, but in other areas of coastal RI, subsurface processes may augment surface accretion. In all cases, marsh elevation gain was exceeded by the 5.26 mm year −1 rate of increase in sea levels during the study period. Our study provides the first SET elevation change data from RI and shows that most RI marshes are not keeping pace with short- or long-term rates of SLR. It also lends support to previous research that implicates SLR as a primary driver of recent changes to southern New England salt marshes.

Description: Carnivore attacks on livestock are a primary driver of human–carnivore conflict and carnivore decline globally. Livestock depredation is particularly threatening to carnivore conservation in Central India, a priority landscape and stronghold for the endangered tiger. To strengthen the effectiveness of conflict mitigation strategies, we examined the spatial and temporal patterns and physical characteristics of livestock depredation in Kanha Tiger Reserve. We combined livestock compensation historical records (2001–2009) with ground surveys (2011–2012) and carnivore scat to identify when and where livestock species were most vulnerable. Between 400 and 600 livestock were reported for financial compensation each year, and most (91–95 %) were successfully reimbursed. Tigers and leopards were responsible for nearly all livestock losses and most often killed in the afternoon and early evening. Cattle and buffalo were most at risk in dense forests away from villages and roads, whereas goats were most often killed in open vegetation near villages. A spatial predation risk model for cattle revealed high-risk hotspots around the core zone boundary, confirming the significant risks to livestock grazing illegally in the core. Such ecological insights on carnivore–livestock interactions may help improve species-specific livestock husbandry for minimizing livestock losses and enabling coexistence between people and carnivores.

Description: Ensuring forest protection and the delivery of forest ecosystem services is a central aim of the European Union’s biodiversity strategy for 2020. Therefore, accurate modelling and mapping of ecosystem services as well as of biodiversity conservation value is an important asset in support of spatial planning and policy implementation. The objectives of this study were to analyse the provision of the multiple ecosystem services under two forestation scenarios (eucalyptus/pine vs. oak) at the watershed scale and to evaluate their possible trade-offs with the biodiversity conservation value. The Vez watershed, in northwest Portugal, was used as case study area, in which soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate the provision of hydrological services, biomass and carbon storage services. Biodiversity conservation value was based on nature protection regimes and on expert judgement applied to a land cover map. Results indicated large provision of ecosystem services in the high and low mountain sub-basins. The overall performance for water quantity and timing is better under the shrubland and oak forest scenarios, when compared to the eucalyptus/pine forest scenario, which perform better for flood regulation and erosion control services, especially in the low mountain sub-basin. The current shrubland dominated cover also shows good performance for the control of soil erosion. The oak scenario is the one with less trade-offs between forest services and biodiversity conservation. Results highlight SWAT as an effective tool for modelling and mapping ecosystem services generated at the watershed scale, thereby contributing to improve the options for land management.

Description: Magnitudes of land cover changes nowadays can be assessed properly, but their driving forces are subject to many discussions. Next to the accepted role of human influence, the impact of natural climate variability is often neglected. In this paper, the impact of rainfall variability on land cover changes (LCC) is investigated for the western escarpment of the Raya Graben along the northern Ethiopian Rift Valley. First, LCC between 2000 and 2014 were analysed at specific time steps using Landsat imagery. Based on the obtained LCC maps, the link was set with rainfall variability, obtained by means of the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFEs) from NOAA-CPC. After a correction by the incorporation of local meteorological station data, these estimates prove to be good estimators for the actual amount of precipitation ( ρ RFE1.0  = 0.85, p  = 0.00, n  = 126; ρ RFE2.0  = 0.76, p  = 0.00, n  = 934). By performing several linear regression analyses, a significant positive relationship between the precipitation parameter DIFF 5Y (i.e. the at-RFE pixel scale difference in five-year average annual precipitation for the two periods preceding the land cover maps) and the changes in the woody vegetation cover was found (standardised regression coefficient β  = 0.23, p  = 0.02, n  = 108). Despite the dominance of direct human impact, further greening of the study area can be expected for the future concomitantly to a wetter climate, if all other factors remain constant.

Description: Agricultural practices have constantly changed in West Africa, and understanding the factors that have driven the changes may help guide strategies to promote sustainable agriculture in the region. To contribute to such efforts, this paper analyzes drivers of change in farming practices in the region using data obtained from surveys of 700 farming households in five countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger and Senegal). The results showed that farmers have adopted various practices in response to the challenges they have faced during the last decade. A series of logit models showed that most changes farmers made to their practices are undertaken for multiple reasons. Land use and management changes including expanding farmed areas and using mineral fertilization and manure are positively related to perceived changes in the climate, such as more erratic rainfall. Planting new varieties, introducing new crops, crop rotation, expanding farmed area and using pesticides are positively associated with new market opportunities. Farm practices that require relatively high financial investment such as use of pesticides, drought-tolerant varieties and improved seeds were positively associated with the provision of technical and financial support for farmers through development projects and policies. Changes in markets and climate are both helping to promote needed changes in farming practices in West Africa. Therefore, policies that foster the development of markets for agricultural products, and improved weather- and climate-related information linked to knowledge of appropriate agricultural innovations in different environments are needed.

Description: Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO 2 in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.

Description: Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climate–water conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climate–conflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the south-eastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.

Description: Mediterranean forests are found in the Mediterranean basin, California, the South African Cape Province, South and southwestern Australia and parts of Central Chile. They represent 1.8 % of the world forest areas of which the vast majority is found in the Mediterranean basin, where historical and paleogeographic episodes, long-term human influence and geographical and climatic contrasts have created ecosystemic diversity and heterogeneity. Even if evergreen is dominant, deciduous trees are also represented, with different forest types including dense stands with a closed canopy (forests sensu stricto) and pre-forestal or pre-steppic structures with lower trees density and height. The Mediterranean basin is also a hot spot of forest species and genetic diversity, with 290 woody species versus only 135 for non-Mediterranean Europe. However, the characteristics of the Mediterranean area (long-standing anthropogenic pressure, significant current human activity and broad biodiversity) make it one of the world’s regions most threatened by current changes. Four examples of Mediterranean forest types, present in south and north of the Mediterranean basin and more or less threatened, are developed in order to show that linking “hard sciences” and humanities and social sciences is necessary to understand these complex ecosystems. We show also that these forests, in spite of specific climatic constraints, can also be healthy and productive and play a major ecological and social role. Furthermore, even if the current human activity and global change constitute a risk for these exceptional ecosystems, Mediterranean forests represent a great asset and opportunities for the future of the Mediterranean basin.

Description: This study examines the potential for ecological engineering to enhance the beneficial ecosystem services provided by birds in tropical rice fields. Bird activities were monitored at six sites in the Philippines with high-diversity vegetation patches (HDVPs) established as an ecological engineering approach to restore ecosystem services. Adjacent plots of conventional rice were monitored as controls. Predatory birds (shrikes, Lanius spp., grassbirds, Megalurus palustris , and kingfishers, Halcyon spp.) were more active in the ecological engineering fields where they foraged for arthropods and snails among the rice plants. Pied trillers, Lalage nigra , and yellow vented bulbuls, Pycnonotus goiavier , foraged more in the HDVPs than in rice. These birds mainly responded to the availability of bamboo for perching in the HDVPs, although patch vegetation beneath the bamboo was also used for perching by some species. Aerial hunters such as swallows, Hirundo spp., avoided HDVPs likely because the tall vegetation and bamboo stakes represented an obstacle for their flight. Small changes in the design of HDVPs could avoid any negative effects on foraging by swallows and swifts. The results indicate that ecological engineering of rice paddies can have multiple benefits for farmers and the environment, including improved nutrition for farming communities, the creation of habitat for wildlife, and the enhancement of regulatory ecosystem services provided by insectivorous and snail-eating birds.

Description: This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate hazards and associated capacity needs. Households play an important role in responding to the impact of a changing climate by creating a functional link between individual and community responses to change. However, household perspectives on their capacity needs are rarely sought in programs seeking to provide incentives for household action—despite the influence of normative values and perceptions on household action. Rather, interventions are often informed by quantitative measures of adaptive capacity, such as access to financial or social capital. An alternative approach involves analysis of social narratives of capability that reflect normative perceptions of climate risk and capacity needs. Implementation of this approach reveals that a significant number of households in vulnerable locations consider existing capacities sufficient to manage familiar climate hazards, regardless of socio-economic circumstance. Our comparative study of two Australian coastal communities also suggests that a dominant narrative of capability to manage climate hazards reduces the likelihood of household investments in adaptive actions. While socio-political influences on narratives are often deeply embedded and difficult to change in the short term, identifying perceived risk and response capacity is pivotal in determining the likely utility of adaptive capacity stocks as measured through quantitative means.

Description: The protection of Lake Baikal and the planning of water management measures in the Selenga River Basin require a comprehensive understanding of the current state and functioning of the delta’s ecosystem and hydrogeochemical processes. This is particularly relevant in light of recent and expected future changes involving both the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Baikal basin causing spatiotemporal changes in water flow, morphology, and transport of sediments and metals in the Selenga River delta and thus impacting on delta barrier functions. The central part of the delta had been characterized by sediment storage, especially along the main channels, causing a continuous lift of the delta surface by about 0.75 cm/year −1 . Theses morphological changes have a significant impact on hydrological conditions, with historical shifts in the bulk discharge from the left to the right parts of the delta which is distinguished by a relatively high density of wetlands. Regions with a high density of wetlands and small channels, in contrast to main channel regions, show a consistent pattern of considerable contaminant filtering and removal (between 77 and 99 % for key metals), during both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The removal is associated with a significant concentration increase (2–3 times) of these substances in the bottom sediment. In consequence, geomorphological processes, which govern the partitioning of flow between different channel systems, may therefore directly govern the barrier function of the delta.

Description: How should we measure a household’s resilience to climate extremes, climate change or other evolving threats? As resilience gathers momentum on the international stage, interest in this question continues to grow. So far, efforts to measure resilience have largely focused on the use of ‘objective’ frameworks and methods of indicator selection. These typically depend on a range of observable socio-economic variables, such as levels of income, the extent of a household’s social capital or its access to social safety nets. Yet while objective methods have their uses, they suffer from well-documented weaknesses. This paper advocates for the use of an alternative but complementary method: the measurement of ‘subjective’ resilience at the household level. The concept of subjective resilience stems from the premise that people have an understanding of the factors that contribute to their ability to anticipate, buffer and adapt to disturbance and change. Subjective household resilience therefore relates to an individual’s cognitive and affective self-evaluation of their household’s capabilities and capacities in responding to risk. We discuss the advantages and limitations of measuring subjective household resilience and highlight its relationships with other concepts such as perceived adaptive capacity, subjective well-being and psychological resilience. We then put forward different options for the design and delivery of survey questions on subjective household resilience. While the approach we describe is focused at the household level, we show how it has the potential to be aggregated to inform sub-national or national resilience metrics and indicators. Lastly, we highlight how subjective methods of resilience assessment could be used to improve policy and decision-making. Above all, we argue that, alongside traditional objective measures and indicators, efforts to measure resilience should take into account subjective aspects of household resilience in order to ensure a more holistic understanding of resilience to climate extremes and disasters.

Description: Lake Baikal is the largest near-surface global freshwater source and of high interest for water quality alterations, as deterioration of water quality is a main global and an increasing issue in the Selenga River Basin. Here, the Selenga River Basin as main contributor to the inflow of Lake Baikal is extremely important. Pressure on ecosystems and water resources increased due to population growth, rapid urbanization and rising industrial activities, particularly in the mining sector. In this study, the large-scale water resources model WaterGAP3 is applied to calculate loadings of conservative substances (total dissolved solids) and non-conservative substances (faecal coliform bacteria and biological oxygen demand) in a spatially explicit way as well as in in-stream concentrations to get an insight into the state of water quality under current and future scenario conditions. The results show a strong increase in loadings in the scenario period and consequently increasing concentration levels. Comparing the sectoral contributions of the loadings, domestic and industrial sectors are by far the main contributors today and expected to be in the future. Furthermore, for all modelled substances and time periods, water quality thresholds are exceeded posing a potential risk to aquatic ecosystems and human health.

Description: Attempts to influence the development of land systems are often based on detailed scenarios that constrain relevant factors, describe a range of divergent but plausible futures and identify potential pathways to visions of desirable conditions. However, a number of assumptions are usually made during this process, and one of the most substantial is that land managers display homogeneous, economically rational behaviour across space, time and scenarios. This assumption precludes the consideration of important behavioural effects and limits understanding of the feasibility of scenario-based pathways towards visions. We use an agent-based land use model to examine broad forms of behavioural variation within defined scenarios in theoretical contexts. We relate model results to stakeholder-developed visions of desired future land systems in Europe and so assess the scope for behavioural pathways towards these normative futures. We find that the achievability of visions is determined by internal inconsistencies, scenario conditions and the multifunctional potential of land uses, with a fundamental tension between large-scale land use productivity and small-scale diversity (i.e. land sparing and land sharing). Trading conditions affect this balance most strongly and represent an obvious target for governance strategies concerned with achieving multifunctional land use. However, within specific circumstances behavioural effects are strong and diverse, and can accelerate, counteract or mitigate the impacts of other drivers. This suggests that visions for the land system should focus on trade-offs, identifying those that are least strong, most acceptable and most susceptible to adjustment through behavioural or other influences.

Description: Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation’s agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.

Description: Forage and more widely grassland systems are difficult to analyze in economic terms because a large proportion of what is produced is not marketed. Economic misestimation of these farm products may dramatically alter projected climate change impacts. This study estimates the economic value of grass and assesses the impact of climatic variations on grassland–livestock systems by taking various environmental and climatic factors into account. Accordingly, grass yield responses to nitrogen inputs (N-yield functions) have been simulated using the grassland biogeochemical PaSim model and then fed into the economic farm-type supply AROPAj model. We developed a computational method to estimate shadow prices of grass production, allowing us to better estimate the effects of climatic variability on grassland and crop systems. This approach has been used on a European scale under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios (AR4 A2 and B1). Results show a significant change in land use over time. Accordingly, due to decreases in feed expenses, farmers may increase livestock, thereby increasing overall greenhouse gas emissions for all scenarios considered. As part of autonomous adaptation by farming systems, N-yield functions extending to pastures and fodders allow us to improve the model and to refine results when marketed and non-marketed crops are considered in a balanced way.

Description: Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are not only dealing with decreased production from land degradation, but are also impacted heavily by climate variability. Farmers perceive decreased rainfall or shortened rainy seasons throughout SSA; however, the link between perceptions and climate variability is complex, especially in areas with increasing land degradation. Moreover, little is known about climate variability and farmers’ perceptions in central equatorial Africa. The purpose of this study is to quantify interannual rainfall variability from 1983 to 2014 in western Uganda and to relate the rainfall variability and associated changes in soil moisture to perceptions and coping strategies of local farmers. Surveys of 308 farming households and 14 group interviews were conducted near Kibale National Park, and daily satellite-based rainfall data for the region were extracted from the African Rainfall Climatology version 2 database. Results indicate a decrease in the long rains by approximately 3 weeks throughout much of the region; thus, soil-water deficits have intensified. Farmers perceived later onsets of both the short rains and long rains, while also reporting decreasing soil fertility and crop yields. Therefore, farmers’ perceptions of rainfall variability in the Kibale region may reflect more the decrease in soil fertility than the shortened rainy seasons and decreased soil moisture. Expanding croplands has been the farmers’ most prevalent coping strategy to decreased yields; however, nearly all the unfarmed land in western Uganda is now in protected areas. Consequently, western Uganda is facing a crisis at the nexus of population growth, land use change, and climate change.

Description: Southern Amazonia is the first region of Brazil’s Amazon area to be exposed to intensive conversion to agriculture and ranching. This conversion emits greenhouse gases from the carbon stock in the biomass and soils of the previous vegetation. Quantifying these carbon stocks is the first step in quantifying the impact on global warming from this conversion. This review is limited to information on Brazilian Amazonia’s carbon stocks. It indicates large amounts of carbon at risk of emission in both biomass and soils, as well as considerable uncertainty in estimates. Reducing uncertainty is a priority for research but the existence of uncertainty must not be used as an excuse for delaying measures to contain deforestation. The magnitude of carbon stocks is proportional to greenhouse gas emissions per hectare of deforestation and consequently to impact on global climate.

Description: Using province-level yield data and daily weather data from 1980 to 2012, we investigated the responses of early rice, middle-season rice, and late rice yields to weather variations in China. In contrast to prior studies that found negative impacts of elevated daily minimum temperature ( T min ) on rice yield in tropical and subtropical regions, we discovered that rising T min increased early and late rice yields in China, with the positive temperature effects varying by rice-growth stage. Consistent with the previous assessments, we found that precipitation had small but negative effects on early and late rice yields. Responses of middle-season rice yield to variations in T min and precipitation are statistically insignificant. The effect of radiation on rice yields also differed by rice variety and rice-growth stage. Our findings provide useful information for developing effective rice-breeding programs and climate adaptation strategies in China.

Description: Livestock production is very risky due to climate variability in semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data collected from 400 households in the Borena zone of the Oromia Region, we explored what drives adoption of agricultural practices that can decrease the vulnerability of agro-pastoralists to climate change. Households with more adaptive capacity adopted a larger number of practices. The households’ adaptive capacity was stronger when the quality of local institutions was high. However, adaptive capacity had less explanatory power in explaining adoption of adaptation options than household socio-economic characteristics, suggesting that aggregating information into one indicator of adaptive capacity for site-specific studies may not help to explain the adoption behaviour of households. Strong local institutions lead to changes in key household-level characteristics (like membership to community groups, years lived in a village, access to credit, financial savings and crop income) which positively affect adoption of agricultural practices. In addition, better local institutions were also positively related to adoption of livestock-related adaptation practices. Poor access to a tarmac road was positively related to intensification and diversification of crop production, whereas it was negatively related to the intensification of livestock production, an important activity for generating cash in the region. Our findings suggest that better local institutions lead to changes in household characteristics, which positively affect adoption of adaptation practices, suggesting that policies should aim to strengthen local institutions.

Description: Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + °N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71° + N). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation ( r  = −0.95). Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.

Description: Reduced river runoff and expected upstream infrastructural developments are both potential threats to irrigation water availability for the downstream countries in Central Asia. Although it has been recurrently mentioned that a reduction in water supply will hamper irrigation in the downstream countries, the magnitude of associated economic losses, economy-wide repercussions on employment rates, and degradation of irrigated lands has not been quantified as yet. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the economy-wide consequences of a reduced water supply in Uzbekistan—a country that encompasses more than half of the entire irrigated croplands in Central Asia. Modeling findings showed that a 10–20 % reduction in water supply, as expected in the near future, may reduce the areas to be irrigated by 241,000–374,000 hectares and may cause unemployment to a population of 712–868,000, resulting in a loss for the national income of 3.6–4.3 %. A series of technical, financial, and institutional measures, implementable at all levels starting from the farm to the basin scale, are discussed for reducing the expected water risks. The prospects of improving the basin-wide water management governance, increasing water and energy use efficiency, and establishing the necessary legal and institutional frameworks for enhancing the introduction of needed technological and socioeconomic change are argued as options for gaining more regional water security and equity.

Description: The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO 2 e ha −1  y −1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO 2 e y −1 . Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.

Description: Understanding changes in forest composition and structure is important to help formulate effective policies that promote future ability of forests to provide local livelihood needs, habitat and ecosystem services. This is particularly important in dry tropical forests that are ecologically different from other forests and are heavily used by local, forest-dependent residents. In this study, we identify biophysical, demographic and use factors associated with differences in species diversity, vegetation structure (abundance at different size classes), biomass and relative abundance of species across the Kanha–Pench landscape in Central India. We sampled vegetation in twenty transects across different human and livestock population densities and frequencies of use. We found that biomass, species diversity and vegetation (abundance at different size classes) are negatively associated with increasing population density, and species composition at different size classes is significantly different at higher frequencies of use at low population densities. Lack of difference in species composition at high population densities may be due to colonization and growth of individuals at some of these sites due to creation of new ecological niches and gaps at high human use. Relative abundance of species at different size classes also varies with frequency of use and population density. Results suggest that human use is altering relative abundance of species, which may change long-term forest composition and thus alter biomass and vegetation structure of the forest. We conclude that human use is an agent in altering long-term composition that can alter availability of tree species for local use and other ecosystem services.

Description: We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.

Description: While adaptation has received a fair amount of attention in the climate change debate, barriers to adaptation are the focus of a more specific, recent discussion. In this discussion, such barriers are generally treated as having a uniform, negative impact on all actors. However, we argue that the precise nature and impact of such barriers on different actors has so far been largely overlooked. Our study of two drought-prone communities in rural Ethiopia sets out to examine how female- and male-headed households adapt to climate change, particularly focusing on how a variety of barriers influence the choice of adaptation measures to varying extents. To this purpose, we built a conceptual framework based on the Sustainable Livelihood Approach . Data were collected using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with male- and female-headed households, community leaders and local extension workers. Our findings suggest that gender-based differences in the choice of adaptation measures at the household level are driven by cultural, social, financial and institutional barriers. Barriers to adaptation—particularly when interacting—have a differentiated impact upon different actors. This outcome hints at the need for donors and policymakers to develop intervention strategies that are sensitive to this fact.

Description: Many mountainous regions worldwide are characterized by harsh environments, scarce infrastructure, and extreme contrasts between mountains and neighboring plateaus and plains. Transhumance is a social adaptation to handle geomorphological heterogeneity such as lowlands and highlands, and to cope with environmental variability (seasonal and regional rainfall and snowfall). We studied the regional transhumant system with a network approach in the Andes of North Patagonia, Argentina. We measured the connectivity promoted by the seasonal movements of herds and people (relationships) among different ecosystems (nodes), defined as winter and summer lands. We identified 238 networks. The highest frequencies corresponded to small network structures (dyads and triads), suggesting that landscape management is highly decentralized. Network complexity was positively related to ecological richness and diversity of connected nodes. However, most networks were dependent upon a central node, suggesting vulnerable situations regarding disturbances affecting such key nodes. The identification of social–ecological traps of this mobile system provided novel insights for policy decision making, which otherwise would not be evidenced with traditional approaches. Management proposals and policy making should consider the spatial and temporal scales of transhumant pastoralism, in order to avoid problems derived from fixation logics, scale mismatches, and disconnection.

Description: Recent studies suggest that carbon (C) is stored in the topsoil of pastures established after deforestation. However, little is known about the long-term capacity of tropical pastures to sequester C in different soil layers after deforestation. Deep soil layers are generally not taken into consideration or are underestimated when C storage is calculated. Here we show that in French Guiana, the C stored in the deep soil layers contributes significantly to C stocks down to a depth of 100 cm and that C is sequestered in recalcitrant soil organic matter in the soil below a depth of 20 cm. The contribution of the 50–100 cm soil layer increased from 22 to 31 % with the age of the pasture. We show that long-term C sequestration in C4 tropical pastures is linked to the development of C3 species (legumes and shrubs), which increase both inputs of N into the ecosystem and the C:N ratio of soil organic matter. The deep soil under old pastures contained more C3 carbon than the native forest. If C sequestration in the deep soil is taken into account, our results suggest that the soil C stock in pastures in Amazonia would be higher with sustainable pasture management, in particular by promoting the development of legumes already in place and by introducing new species.

Description: Our research addresses the gap in scientific research on the fine-grain spatial patterns and social–ecological interactions of land use and agrobiodiversity. The spatial dimension of agrobiodiversity dynamics potentially strengthens the social–ecological resilience and food security of smallholders by buffering risk and vulnerability. Our research integrates the scientific theories, concepts, and methods of spatial externalities, social–ecological interactions, geospatial land and global change sciences, and political ecology. We designed a case study of the Arbieto-Tarata landscape in the Bolivian Andes that comprises a globally significant agrobiodiversity hot spot of Andean maize. The Arbieto-Tarata landscape, which contains nearly 8000 fields at 2500–2800 masl, is representative of mixed-use smallholder agri-food systems amid global changes. Our research predicts spatial spillover and edge effects of combined social and environmental factors leading to the clustering of same-crop fields. Findings reveal significant levels of the predicted clustering between 2006 and 2012. The degree of this clustering is found to differ among geographic and environmental sub-areas reflecting fine-grain variation of local causal linkages. Extra-local causal linkages include high levels of migration, water resource shortages, and urbanization. Results show the influences of informal and formal coordination in the spatial clustering of same-crop fields. This field-level coordination improves the efficiency of resource allocations and lowers costs of production. It enables the viability of high-agrobiodiversity Andean maize in smallholder land use and agri-food systems amid global changes. The article discusses the broader policy and scientific implications of these findings including scaling up and support of the social–ecological resilience of agrobiodiversity globally.

Description: The consumption and production of food products in the municipality of Lisbon in the 1890–1900 decade is assessed with the support of historical cartography and statistical resources. For the first time, food production in a municipality in the turn to the twentieth century is accounted and simultaneously subject of a visual analysis of the land used for agriculture and of the water infrastructures that supported such uses. Agriculture occupied at least 40 % of the territory of the city, while the built environment occupied no more than 16 % of the territory. However, local production of food was far from supplying most of the citizens’ needs, and substantial food imports were needed. In this context, the municipality behaved like a heterotrophic system, highly dependent on the external supply of resources. Moreover, comparing to other European cities at the time Lisbon was facing in the end of the nineteenth century a late and slow transition from an agrarian social metabolism to an industrial one, suggesting that Lisbon was still relatively high-solar-powered as compared to other European cities at the time that were already highly fossil-fuel-powered.

Description: We examined landscape exposure to wildfire potential, insects and disease risk, and urban and exurban development for the conterminous US (CONUS). Our analysis relied on spatial data used by federal agencies to evaluate these stressors nationally. We combined stressor data with a climate change exposure metric to identify when temperature is likely to depart from historical conditions and become “unprecedented.” We used a neighborhood analysis procedure based on key stressor thresholds within a geographic information system to examine the extent of landscape exposure to our set of individual and coinciding stressors. Our focus is on identifying large contiguous areas of stress exposure which would be of national concern to identify potential locations most vulnerable to resulting ecological and social disruption. The arrival of record-setting temperatures may be both rapid and widespread within the CONUS under RCP8.5. By 2060, 91 % of the CONUS could depart from the climate of the last century. While much of the CONUS may be impacted by at least one of the landscape stressors we examined, multiple coinciding stressors occurred for less than 9 % of the CONUS. The two most prevalent coinciding stressors were (1) wildfire potential combined with insects and disease risk, and (2) climate departure combined with urban and exurban development. Combined exposure to three or more stressors was rare, but we did identify several localized high-population areas that may be vulnerable to future change. Additional assessment and research for these areas may provide early and proactive approaches to mitigating multiple stressor exposure.

Description: This study applied catchment modeling to examine the potential effects of climate change and future land management variations on streamflow and microbial transport sensitivities for two locations in the west of Ireland (Black River and Fergus River). Simulations focused on plausible combined scenarios of climate, population and agricultural production variations for the 2041–2060 period and compares resultant impacts to a baseline existing period (1994–2007). The variations in monthly, seasonal and annual streamflow, and the daily microbial load (for E. coli ) were used to assess sensitivities. Results indicate that possible future changes in microbial load for both the Fergus and Black catchments typically follow projected seasonal fluctuations in precipitation and streamflow. Increased winter rainfall (intensity and frequency) will cause significant impacts on microbial transport, representing a period of increased risk. An increase in microbial source loads to land, concomitantly with projected changes in climate is likely to exert greater microbial pollutant pressures on surface waters. The simulated scenarios, and resultant microbial load changes, suggest that future variations in land use/management may be as important as the effects of climate change on in-stream microbial pollutant loads. Outcomes from this study can prove useful for informing water resource managers and other decision makers about potential impacts. This information can instigate the development of adaptation measures needed to alleviate increased catchment pollution from microbial contaminants (and other pollutants) in future years.

Description: African mixed crop–livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and need to adapt in order to improve productivity and sustain people’s livelihoods. These smallholder systems are characterized by high greenhouse gas emission rates, but could play a role in their mitigation. Although the impact of climate change is projected to be large, many uncertainties persist, in particular with respect to impacts on livestock and grazing components, whole-farm dynamics and heterogeneous farm populations. We summarize the current understanding on impacts and vulnerability and highlight key knowledge gaps for the separate system components and the mixed farming systems as a whole. Numerous adaptation and mitigation options exist for crop–livestock systems. We provide an overview by distinguishing risk management, diversification and sustainable intensification strategies, and by focusing on the contribution to the three pillars of climate-smart agriculture. Despite the potential solutions, smallholders face major constraints at various scales, including small farm sizes, the lack of response to the proposed measures and the multi-functionality of the livestock herd. Major institutional barriers include poor access to markets and relevant knowledge, land tenure insecurity and the common property status of most grazing resources. These limit the adoption potential and hence the potential impact on resilience and mitigation. In order to effectively inform decision-making, we therefore call for integrated, system-oriented impact assessments and a realistic consideration of the adoption constraints in smallholder systems. Building on agricultural system model development, integrated impact assessments and scenario analyses can inform the co-design and implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.F

Description: This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100- and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.

Description: Habitat loss and degradation are main global threats to biodiversity, and land-use changes in agriculture-dominated landscapes are crucial for an important portion of biodiversity, especially in Europe. We evaluated the effects of land-use changes (1954–2012) on a threatened species, the ortolan bunting, in an agricultural area crucial for its conservation in Italy. We built a distribution model for ortolan bunting in current landscapes and then re-projected it to past scenarios (1954 and 1999–2000). We evaluated the most important land-use changes occurred and estimated their effects on habitat suitability. Bunting occurrence was mostly affected by the extent of grassland (positively; used as foraging/breeding ground), shrubland (quadratic effect; perches/shelter), forest and urbanized land (negatively), and by solar radiation (positively) and slope (quadratic), consistent with other studies carried out especially in southern Europe. The potential distribution of the species was much larger in the past: the estimated decline in suitable habitat is 44–72 % (since 1999–2000/1954), coherent with historical data suggesting strong decline and contraction. Changes in suitability (1954–2012) were mostly associated with changes in the cover of forest, vineyards and abandoned areas (negatively), and shrubland (positively). Land-use/land-cover changes are the main drivers of species occurrence and of habitat decline. The heterogeneous landscape of hilly/low-mountain sites in this area, characterized by a mix of habitats offering complementary resources to ortolan buntings and other species of conservation concern, is currently threatened by abandonment and intensification, but its maintenance may be promoted by a correct definition of Rural Development Programme measures.

Description: Climate-related disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts are not new to Pacific Islanders, who have developed customary or ‘traditional’ practices to enable communities to adapt and recover from such hazards. Some of these practices have been degraded and some assisted by modernisation. Through their effects on the island environment, these hazards have a range of socio-economic impacts on food (fisheries and crops) and water supply, tourism, and coastal buildings and infrastructure. The varied impacts of climate change not only exacerbate those hazards but also raise new threats, such as sea level rise and ocean acidification, that have no precedent in the past 500 years, and for which there are therefore no traditional adaptations, although Pacific innate ingenuity and resilience remains strong. These issues are particularly acute for the low-lying atoll countries whose continued existence is threatened by sea level rise, but also affect those that live on higher islands in coastal settlements, where most of their population is concentrated. Climate change thus sharpens social and cultural issues of equity (reflecting disparities in location, income, education, gender, health and age), made even more acute by increased levels of voluntary or forced migration within, and even more so beyond, island country boundaries. Consequently, many islanders see climate change as a moral challenge to the richer countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the problem.

Description: Environmental change can be viewed as the combined result of long-term processes and singular events. While long-term trends appear to be readily available for observation (in the form of temporal comparisons or space-for-time substitution), it is more difficult to gain information on singular events in the past, although these can be equally significant in shaping ecosystems. We examined the past 700 years in the history of a lowland wetland landscape in the Czech Republic with the help of palaeoecological, ecological, landscape archaeological, and archival data. Macrofossil and pollen data were compared to known drainage works in the area and historical climatological data. Trends and events in habitat conditions were assessed using species indicator values. Results showed that ecological succession was the general process in the study area, detected as a trend towards eutrophication, desiccation, and vegetation closure. Short-term events influenced development at the sites mainly from the second half of the nineteenth century. This is consistent with drainage history, although bias related to sample frequency cannot be excluded. On the whole, long-term trends and discrete events were complementary on different scales. We conclude that humans facilitated and accelerated background processes, which can be most likely associated with the succession of open wetlands towards terrestrial ecosystems.

Description: The experience of environmental stress and attitudes towards climate change was explored for 1226 students at the University of the South Pacific, the foremost tertiary institution serving the independent nations of the Pacific. Students sourced information regarding climate change from media including television, radio, and newspapers; the community (typically via their village, church, and extended family); the University and their friends; and in addition to regional agencies such as the Pacific Community. Most students concluded that they could not believe all of the informations provided by these sources. The findings demonstrate that most students—the future elite of the region—rank global environmental change as the highest future risk. Although nearly all respondents believed that climate change was happening, more than half of respondents believed that the risk was exaggerated and only one-third believed that science would find an answer, suggesting a lack of trust in scientific sources of information. Results also showed that these attitudes varied across demographic factors such as age, region, and gender. The understanding of contemporary attitudes towards global environmental change among a cohort that is likely to include future national leaders in the Pacific Islands region presents unique opportunities for long-range planning of intervention and support strategies. Of particular note for effective intervention and support is the breadth and trustworthiness of various information sources including Pacific Island leaders.

Description: The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in land use and land cover (LULC) change is a key issue for conservation efforts. In the Chilean hotspot, different studies have attempted to understand variations of LULC change. Nevertheless, a broader understanding of common patterns and variability of LULC over the entire range of the hotspot is lacking. We performed a complete review of the different studies reporting LULC changes and performed a joint analysis of their results using an integrated comprehensive approach. We related the variation of LULC change to latitude, time period and vascular plant richness using generalized linear models. Overall, there were nine studies, which covered 36.5 % of the study area, and reported the loss of 19 % of native forest (782,120 ha) between 1973 and 2011. The highest net forest loss was observed in the 1970–1990 period. This decreased in the 1990–2000 period and rose again in the 2000–2010 period. This result reveals a continuous forest loss in the last 40 years. Conversion of native forest to shrublands is the most important contributor to net native forest loss, accounting for 45 % of the loss. However, in the area of greatest species richness native forests are mainly converted to exotic tree plantations. Chilean forestry model has proved successful in expanding exotic tree plantation, but so far it has not been compatible with native forest conservation and restoration. It is imperative to design a new forestry policy to assure the conservation of one of the most unique biodiversity hotspots worldwide.

Description: Exposure to extreme heat is a familiar seasonal experience for many rural communities across Australia, which is projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change. This has wide-ranging implications for community health and well-being, livelihoods, recreation, and the natural and built environments. In this study, we have examined how rural and remote communities in South Australia experience and respond to extreme heat, and how this is influenced by physical, social and psychological aspects of place. Interviews with participants across different climatic regions of South Australia were analysed using a broad thematic framework that included physical aspects of place, human activities, social and community aspects, and relationships with place; providing a descriptive account of heat impacts and responses. We further suggest that some narratives expressed the construction of a rural or remote identity, with climate being a part of this relationship; suggesting that place identity may be a subjective aspect underpinning appraisals of extreme heat. We discuss the implications for adaptation choices in a warming climate.

Description: India’s continued development depends on the availability of adequate water. This paper applies a data-driven approach to estimate the intra-annual dynamics of water stress across the central Indian Highlands over the period 2002–2012. We investigate the spatial distribution of water demanding sectors including industry, domestic, irrigation, livestock and thermal power generation. We also examine the vulnerability of urban centers within the study area to water stress. We find that 74 % of the area of the central Indian Highlands experienced water stress (defined as demand exceeding supply) for 4 or more months out of the year. The rabi (winter) season irrigation drives the intra-annual water stress across the landscape. The Godavari basin experiences the most surface water stress while the Ganga and Narmada basins experience water stress due to groundwater deficits as a result of rabi irrigation. All urban centers experience water stress at some time during a year. Urban centers in the Godavari basin are considerably water stressed, for example, Achalpur, Nagpur and Chandrapur experience water stress 8 months out of the year. Irrigation dominates water use accounting for 95 % of the total water demand, with substantial increases in irrigated land over the last decade. Managing land use to promote hydrologic functions will become increasingly important as water stress increases.

Description: The present study analyzes climate change effects on the water temperature of the Rhine, one of the largest rivers in Central Europe. Simulation calculations were performed based on a range of climate and river flow projections for the near (2021–2050) and for the far future (2071–2100) compared to a reference period (1961–1990). Changes in mean annual water temperature in the near future range between +0.6 and +1.4 °C and between +1.9 and +2.2 °C in the far future (average of nine stations). Monthly mean values of the far future change in a more differentiated way by +0.4 to +1.3 °C in spring and +2.7 to +3.4 °C in late summer. The length of periods of high water temperature, expressed as successive days with water temperatures over 27 °C, increases by a factor of four until 2100. These prolonged durations of periods with unusually high water temperatures may provoke changes in the food web and in the rates of biological processes in the Rhine.

Description: Environmental stratifications provide the framework for efficient surveillance and monitoring of biodiversity and ecological resources, as well as modelling exercises. An obstacle for agricultural landscape monitoring in Estonia has been the lack of a framework for the objective selection of monitoring sites. This paper describes the construction and testing of the Environmental Stratification of Estonia (ESE). Principal components analysis was used to select the variables that capture the most amount of variation. Seven climate variables and topography were selected and subsequently subjected to the ISODATA clustering routine in order to produce relatively homogeneous environmental strata. The ESE contains eight strata, which have been described in terms of soil, land cover and climatic parameters. In order to assess the reliability of the stratification procedure for the selection of monitoring sites, the ESE was compared with the previous map of Landscape Regions of Estonia and correlated with five environmental data sets. All correlations were significant. The stratification has therefore already been used to extend the current series of samples in agricultural landscapes into a more statistically robust series of monitoring sites. The potential for applying climate change scenarios to assess the shifts in the strata and associated ecological impacts is also examined.

Description: Agricultural fire for land preparation is central in the livelihoods of subsistence farmers practicing shifting cultivation. Achieving a good agricultural burn, one in which the biomass is thoroughly consumed within the chosen area, depends on specific weather conditions. Fire use decisions are also shaped by institutions that define the timing and rules for fire use but also constrain the alternatives and shape adaptive capacities. Global and regional climate changes interact with the institutional framing of fire management affecting local fire use and burn outcomes. These effects are documented and analyzed to suggest adaptations to existing governance systems. We examined subsistence farmers’ socio-ecological vulnerability in the Calakmul municipality, located in southeastern Mexico. Using interviews with farmers and government agents, as well as participatory mapping and observation of agricultural burns, we studied fire management knowledge, practices and burn outcomes. Our results describe a continuum of burn outcomes covering good agricultural burns, uncontrolled burns leading to wildfires and “ malquemados ” literally poorly burned areas. Malquemados represent unsuccessful combustion associated with excess moisture that results in scorched vegetation. We discuss how unexpected early rains trigger effects that cascade through space and the ecological, economic and cultural domains. We argue that fire management has been historically approached from a conservation standpoint yet agricultural fire use and wildfire prevention should also be addressed from a rural development perspective. This shift in fire management would lead to the proper inclusion of the entire array of burn outcomes in studies and policies addressing farmers’ vulnerability amplified by synergistic effects between climate variability and institutional change.

Description: Community-based adaptation (CBA) is becoming an increasingly popular approach to climate change adaptation in the Pacific islands region. Building adaptive capacity should be an important component of projects supporting CBA. The literature establishes that adaptive capacity is highly context and culture specific. However, to date, there has been little research into the factors and processes that enable adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities. This paper discusses the Pacific Adaptive Capacity Analysis Framework, a theoretical framework developed to guide assessment of adaptive capacity for the purposes of supporting CBA projects. The framework identifies seven broad factors and several sub-factors of Pacific-specific adaptive capacity: (1) human capital; (2) social capital; (3) belief systems, worldviews, and values; (4) resources and their distribution; (5) options for adaptation, livelihood, and food supply; (6) information and awareness; and (7) history of dealing with climate stress. The paper presents a case study of adaptive capacity from a community in the Solomon Islands and concludes that unlike many adaptive capacity determinants identified in the broader international literature, function-based (factors shaping ability to access and use resources) and cognitive (for example, values and belief systems) determinants are of particular relevance in the Pacific community social and cultural context. The key to building upon cognitive and function-based aspects of adaptive capacity is increasing the ability of people to liaise with external support organisations to plan and acquire resources for adaptation on their own terms.

Description: Regional organisations play a central role in coordinating regional climate change adaptation responses across small island developing states, 58 countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The effectiveness of these organisations in coordinating adaptation efforts is underexplored in the academic literature, and this paper helps to fill the gap. By developing the Framework for Assessing Regional Organisations Coordinating Climate Change Adaptation, it qualitatively assesses the adaptation-related inputs, projects/programmes and outputs of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, the Secretariat of the Pacific Community and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme. This assessment is enriched by data gathered through interviews with national and regional climate change and development officials in the Caribbean and Pacific. It finds that regional organisations are more effective with respect to their adaptation-related inputs and outputs, but are less effective in coordinating adaptation projects/programmes. It recommends that, in addition to differentiating organisational mandates, regional organisations should focus on resolving the major climate-related information deficit issues, helping countries to develop ready to finance investment projects, building national-level capacities to adapt and supporting the creation of an enabling environment for climate change adaptation.

Description: Water is considered the bloodstream of the biosphere, but its management is one of the most important challenges for human development. In view of the sustainable water management, several approaches have been proposed: Integrated Water Resources Management, Adaptive Management and, more recently, Water–Energy–Food (WEF) Nexus. Considering these approaches, over the last few decades, extensive efforts have been made to develop assessment methods and tools framed within the paradigm of sustainable development. As part of a holistic assessment of water resources, the recent approach based upon the WEF Nexus narrows down the consideration of intersectoral linkages to three dimensions that are of prominent interest, in particular in developing countries. This study presents a comprehensive indicator-based approach for the assessment of water, energy and food securities, with reference to the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. The main ambition of the proposed approach is to provide a tool to monitor progresses, compare different geographical areas, highlight synergies and conflicts amongst and within the three dimensions of the WEF Nexus, and provide support for improved—more effective—management strategies to meet the goals. The proposed approach is demonstrated in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) River Basin in Asia and to the Po River Basin in Europe. The comparative analysis suggests that WEF security is currently rather low in the GBM basin compared to the other case study and other parts of the world and allows the identification of which dimensions (indicators) require special attention on the part of local and global policy makers.

Description: Integrated Catchment Management (ICM) has in recent years been promoted by a wealth of “top-down” government policies, while a number of “bottom-up” community-based initiatives have also been set up. At the same time, adaptive water governance, built around multi-level, integrative and participatory institutional arrangements, is called for in order to enhance adaptive capacity of social–ecological systems to global changes. Working across scales, aligning planning processes, and multi-actor collaboration are key issues in the linking of top-down and bottom-up ICM, hence providing insights into how adaptive water governance can work in practice. The paper presents a study of how ICM actors work across scales and reconcile national and local priorities in 15 regional experiences chosen to reflect a diversity of scales, histories and governance arrangements. It is complemented with an in-depth, illustrative example, taken from the Tweed River Basin in Scotland, where a local charity has gradually developed and helped bridge gaps between local communities and government. Research results present the ways in which “ trusted intermediaries ” can successfully close the gap across levels of governance, i.e. between communities, business, and governmental interests at multiple scales. Local “ trusted intermediaries” perform well, with their local knowledge, at building rapport with key actors and effectuate change on the ground. The research also indicates the need for a legal framework, or at least an established policy structure, that acts to harness the good will and interests of local actors while improving implementation of broader, national objectives. There appears to be no specific mechanism for multi-level collaboration, although results indicate that more formal and coercive forms of partnership are necessary at later stages to ensure implementation, for example, via the establishment of formal duties on public bodies or legally binding agreements between ICM stakeholders.

Description: The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.

Description: Conditions for successful common-pool resources management institutions have been systematized by Elinor Ostrom as a set of “design principles for robust governance”. The comparison of two attempts to developing a local informal managing institution for shrimp trawling, 30 years apart (the late 1970s and 2010 attempts), and in the same community (therefore, the same socioecological system—SES) in Southern Brazil, provides a convenient ground to test the hypothesis that the degree of success of each attempt is related to the degree of adherence to Ostrom’s principles. Moreover, the comparison allows investigating how conditions and changes in the SES affect management institutions. Our institutional analysis showed that the 1970s attempt followed a local rule that best fitted almost all principles, which may explain its relative success and longer-lasting activity. However, changes such as the emergence of new technologies and increased fishing activity gradually led to an erosion of the local rule. A low level of group cohesion, regional socioeconomic changes, increased fishing effort, and lack of legal provisions for fishers to develop local managing institutions were the main factors that led to institutional failure in the two evaluated attempts. Additionally, the lack of ability to adapt to changing conditions weakened the continuity of the management regime. Although Brazil has created new fishery co-management policies, strategies to enable institutions at local levels are urgently needed for improved performance.

Description: This study addresses the impact of climate change and management approach on the provision of four ecosystem services (ES) (timber production, protection against gravitational hazards, carbon sequestration and biodiversity) in Valsaín forest in central Spain. The hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.6 was used to simulate the development of 24 representative stand types over 100 years (2010–2110) in a full factorial simulation experiment combining three management regimes [“business as usual” management (BAU) and two alternatives to BAU (AM1 and AM2)], a no-management scenario (NOM) and six climate scenarios (historic climate represented by the period 1961–1990 and five transient climate change scenarios). Simulations indicated relatively small differences as regards the impact of the different management alternatives (BAU, AM1 and AM2) on the provision of ES as well as a clear improvement in biodiversity, protection and carbon storage under the no-management regime (NOM). Although timber production indicators were the most sensitive to climate change scenarios, biodiversity-related indicators responded fastest to the management regimes applied. Indicators of protection against rockfall and landslides were affected by both management and climate change. The results indicate substantial vulnerability of ES provisioning under the more extreme climate change scenarios at low elevations (1250 m). At higher elevations, the productivity of Scots pine stands may show a moderate decrease or increase, depending on the climate change scenario.

Description: Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans.

Description: Understanding how individuals perceive their ability to adapt to climate change is critical to understanding adaptation decision-making. Drawing on a survey of 483 smallholder farmer households in the Loess Plateau region of China, we examine the factors that shape smallholder farmer perceptions of their ability to adapt to climate change and their stated intent to do so. We apply a proportional odds ordered logistic regression model to identify the role that determinants of adaptive capacity play in shaping smallholders’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent. Our study provides further evidence that self-efficacy beliefs are a strong, positive predictor of adaptation intent. Our study suggests that human capital, information and technology, material resources and infrastructure, wealth and financial capital, and institutions and entitlements all play an important role in shaping smallholder perceived self-efficacy, while state-society dependencies may reduce smallholder perceived self-efficacy. In addition, our study suggests that perceiving climate change risks and impacts do not necessarily lead to an intention to adapt. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating both the objective determinants of smallholders’ adaptive capacity and their subjective perceptions of these objective determinants into future climate change adaptation programs and policies in order to facilitate adaptive actions. Identifying factors that cause individuals to have a low estimation of their adaptive ability may allow planned adaptation interventions to address these perceived limitations and encourage adaptive behavior.

Description: The speciation of metals in aqueous systems is central to understanding their mobility, bioavailability, toxicity and fate. Although several geochemical speciation models exist for metals, the equilibrium conditions assumed by many of them may not prevail in field-scale hydrological systems with flowing water. Furthermore, the dominant processes and/or process rates in non-acidic systems might differ from well-studied acidic systems. We here aim to increase knowledge on geochemical processes controlling speciation and transport of metals under non-acidic river conditions. Specifically, we evaluate the predictive capacity of a speciation model to novel measurements of multiple metals and their partitioning, under high-pH conditions in mining zones within the Lake Baikal basin. The mining zones are potential hotspots for increasing metal loads to downstream river systems. Metals released from such upstream regions may be transported all the way to Lake Baikal, where increasing metal contamination of sediments and biota has been reported. Our results show clear agreement between speciation predictions and field measurements of Fe, V, Pb and Zn, suggesting that the partitioning of these metals mainly was governed by equilibrium geochemistry under the studied conditions. Systematic over-predictions of dissolved Cr, Cu and Mo by the model were observed, which might be corrected by improving the adsorption database for hydroxyapatite because that mineral likely controls the solubility of these metals. Additionally, metal complexation by dissolved organic matter is a key parameter that needs continued monitoring in the Lake Baikal basin because dependable predictions could not be made without considering its variability. Finally, our investigation indicates that further model development is needed for accurate As speciation predictions under non-acidic conditions, which is crucial for improved health risk assessments on this contaminant.

Description: Tourism is a vital sector of Cyprus economy, attracting millions of tourists every year and providing economic growth and employment for the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of projected climate change in the tourism industry in Cyprus (Republic of Cyprus) using both “Tourism Climate Index” (TCI) and “Beach Climate Index” (BCI). TCI refers to tourism activities mainly related to sightseeing, nature-based tourism, and religious tourism etc., while BCI represents beach tourism that constitutes 85 % of tourism activities in Cyprus. The projections of climate change impacts in tourism are performed for 2071–2100 period, using regional climate model output employing the A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The 1961–1990 period is used as the control run to compare the respective results of the future projections. The significant warming anticipated in the distant future (increases in annual and summer temperatures close to 4 °C) will have adverse impacts on Cyprus tourism industry regarding sightseeing tourism. TCI results for the distant future period show only acceptable conditions for general tourism activities during summer in contrast with the good/very good conditions in the present climate. Conversely, this type of tourism seems to be benefited in shoulder seasons, i.e., during spring and autumn; TCI and hence tourist activities improve in the distant future in relation to the present climate. On the other hand, concerning beach tourism, future projections indicate that it will not be negatively affected by future climate change and any changes will be positive.

Description: This study presents the setup, calibration, validation and scenario application of the soil and water assessment tool for two contrasting macro-catchments along the Amazon agricultural frontier in the federal states of Pará and Mato Grosso, Brazil. Calibration and validation of the model are realised for the periods of the most intensive deforestation and agricultural expansion. In order to give consideration to the rapid, however gradual nature of land use change, the model implements an annual land use update combined with a land use dependent soil parameterization of the upper most soil layer. The comparison of these results with the results of a setup with a steady land use distribution shows distinct improvements of the prediction quality. Discharge prediction improves through the application of gradual land use change in the model by 12 % for a 1.8 % deforestation rate per year and 1.2 % for a deforestation rate of 0.7 % per year. Consequently, the validated models are applied to four land use scenarios for the period 2026–2035. Scenario simulation results show effects on the water balance proportional to land use change. Further, the changes in the water balance follow clear seasonal patterns with highest hydrological effects due to land use change during the rainy season in both catchments. Overall, with continuous deforestation, peak discharge increases. Further, the conversion of native vegetation to pasture has the highest impact on the water balance. For example, monthly discharge in the rainy season increases by up to 24 % for a 13 % conversion of Cerrado savannah into pasture.

Description: In countries like India where multiple risks interact with socio-economic differences to create and sustain vulnerability, assessing the vulnerability of people, places, and systems to climate change is a critical tool to prioritise adaptation. In India, several vulnerability assessment tools have been designed spanning multiple disciplines, by multiple actors, and at multiple scales. However, their conceptual, methodological, and disciplinary underpinnings, and resulting implications on who is identified as vulnerable, have not been interrogated. Addressing this gap, we systematically review peer-reviewed publications ( n  = 78) and grey literature ( n  = 42) to characterise how vulnerability to climate change is assessed in India. We frame our enquiry against four questions: (1) How is vulnerability conceptualised (vulnerability of whom/what, vulnerability to what), (2) who assesses vulnerability, (3) how is vulnerability assessed (methodology, scale), and (4) what are the implications of methodology on outcomes of the assessment. Our findings emphasise that methods to assess vulnerability to climate change are embedded in the disciplinary traditions, methodological approaches, and often-unstated motivations of those designing the assessment. Further, while most assessments acknowledge the importance of scalar and temporal aspects of vulnerability, we find few examples of it being integrated in methodology. Such methodological myopia potentially overlooks how social differentiation, ecological shifts, and institutional dynamics construct and perpetuate vulnerability. Finally, we synthesise the strengths and weaknesses of current vulnerability assessment methods in India and identify a predominance of research in rural landscapes with a relatively lower coverage in urban and peri-urban settlements, which are key interfaces of transitions.

Description: The purpose of this study was to investigate the climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the electrical energy sector in Cyprus. Spatial vulnerability of the island was assessed using the degree-day indicator to investigate heating and cooling demands in the near future using daily temperature projections from regional climate models (RCMs). Using daily electrical energy consumption data for the present climate, an impact model linking consumption and temperature was constructed and this relationship was projected to the future climate using the data from the RCMs and assuming the same technology use. Our impact model results showed that for the period between November and April (‘cold period’), a decreasing trend in electrical energy consumption is evident due to warmer conditions in the near future, while for the period between May and October (‘warm period’), an increasing trend in electricity consumption is evident as warmer conditions dominate by 2050. Regarding the spatial vulnerability assessment, the cooling degree-day indicator testified that major increases in cooling demand, between 100 and 200 degree-days, are expected in inland and southern regions during the summer in the near future. In addition, increases of about 20–50 degree-days are anticipated during autumn. Conversely, energy demand for heating is projected to decrease during spring and winter, especially in the higher elevation parts of the island. More precisely, reductions of about 30–75 degree-days are projected during spring, while greater reductions of about 60–90 degree-days are expected during winter in heating demand, especially for in the near future. The ability of the energy sector to adapt and follow these changes was deemed to be satisfactory reducing the overall vulnerability of the sector to future climate change.

Description: The socio-cultural assessment of ecosystem services has been proposed as a promising tool for eliciting people’s preferences towards ecosystem services. Despite an increasing integration of the socio-cultural perspective in ecosystem service research, little knowledge exists about linkages between landscape and the socio-cultural values people assign to ecosystem services. This paper combines a socio-cultural valuation approach with the use of landscape pictures to analyse and compare people’s perceived importance of the provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem service categories across three landscape types (i.e. larch meadows, spruce forests, and hay meadow). A survey with 470 tourists visiting the region of South Tyrol (Italy) was conducted to link people’s perceived importance to their socio-demographic background and to the landscape types explored. The results show that regulating ecosystem services are preferred over provisioning and cultural services, whereby environmental awareness is found to be more influential than formal education levels regarding the perceived importance of regulating services. The results further demonstrate that cultural background is an important driver in determining people’s perceived importance of cultural services. The underlying landscape types, however, exert an even stronger influence on people’s socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem service categories. This finding suggests that the focus of most ecosystem services assessments on the study area as a whole risks mistakenly attributing differences in people’s socio-cultural values to socio-demographic characteristics only. A better knowledge of the spatial integration of socio-cultural values, however, could help with anticipating the consequences of changes in the landscape and provide better guidance for future landscape planning.

Description: Full-scale technical potential provides a clear horizon for agricultural technology policy to meet the dual and urgent challenge of meeting food security and minimising the effects of climate change. A common stated goal is to double food production by 2050 to meet the needs of 9 billion people. The frontier of full-scale technical potential embodies this goal and provides a panacea for policy makers. However, the pathway between the present adoption of technologies towards this frontier is paved with some hazards which may be insurmountable. We develop a conceptual framework based on adoption levels of technology. The key criteria between current and potential adoption of technologies is the role of enablers, that is interventions which create changes in structural, distributional, technical, social and behavioural cultures. Policy must find optimal mixtures of regulation and voluntary mechanisms to fully encourage uptake of technologies and shift current adoption to meet full-scale technical potential. A range of technologies can be aligned with sustainable intensification and are examined in terms of this enabler framework. Further examination of the framework allows us to conclude that full-scale technical potential will never be achieved due to the stochastic nature of agricultural production, the diversity of motivations and institutional structures operating within food supply chains, as well as unbalanced cost-effectiveness criteria. We argue that sustainable intensification may provide a direction of travel for attaining food security but its poor conception, limited acceptability and understanding amongst the communities of interest lead to over-optimism in determining the journey to this final destination.

Description: In the context of climate change, this study evaluates the impact on the long-shore and cross-shore sediment transport (LST and CST) along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea) derived from climate projections obtained from five combinations of regional and global circulation models (RCMs and GCMs). Special emphasis is given to how inter-model variability translates from wave projections to wave-driven coastal impacts, which is still poorly known. Results show that the uncertainty is in general larger, especially for LST, for which the discrepancies among regional models are more relevant than those associated with the forcing wave parameters. Such increase in the uncertainty can be explained by the nonlinear processes involved, and the role of the forcing wave parameters having sometimes competing effects (e.g. wave height vs. wave direction). This illustrates that the performance of each RCM–GCM can vary from forcing to impact parameters; hence, the suitability of a particular RCM–GCM to evaluate a certain impact should be assessed based on its ability to properly simulate such impact. In this regard, LST and CST rates computed using empirical formulae that integrate several wave climate parameters, as in this study, can be used as a non-computationally expensive tool to assess the suitability of a given RCM–GCM to project changes in coastal dynamics.

Description: Relocations of indigenous peoples from protected areas to promote wildlife conservation have typically resulted in negative socioeconomic results for those displaced. The international indigenous peoples’ movement has begun to coalesce around the use of free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) as a legal mechanism to prevent disadvantageous relocations. In 2006, India’s parliament passed the Forest Rights Act, which requires any village relocation of tribal people be conditional upon their FPIC. I used household surveys and qualitative interviews of relocated and forest (not-yet relocated) villagers from Melghat Tiger Reserve, Maharashtra, to examine (a) the extent to which putatively voluntary relocations were conditional upon FPIC and (b) how such relocations affect socioeconomic metrics and overall quality of life for those relocated. I found that while consent to relocate was mostly free, consent was not fully informed across the villages examined. The socioeconomic results indicate that relocated villagers make a trade-off, leaving a familiar, healthier environment for better access to modern services and employment. Finally, I found that forest villagers in favor of relocation emphasized how the social and economic costs of remaining in the forest had become greater due to the relocation of neighboring villages. This field study suggests that strong implementation of FPIC and state responsiveness post-relocation are both necessary to safeguard forest-dwelling people from disadvantageous relocations.

Description: Extensive forests in Croatia represent an important biological and economic resource in Europe. They are characterised by heterogeneity in forest management practices dating back to the socialist planned economy of the pre-1991 era. In this study we investigated the difference in rates of deforestation and reforestation in private- and state-owned forests during the post-socialist period and the causal drivers of change. The selected region of Northern Croatia is characterised by a high percentage of privately owned forests with minimal national monitoring and control. We used a mixed-methods approach which combines remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire survey to assess the rates of forest cover change and factors influencing those changes. The results show that predominantly privately owned forests in Northern Croatia have recorded a net forest loss of 1.8 % during the 1991–2011 period, while Croatia overall is characterised by a 10 % forest cover increase in predominantly state-owned forests. Main factors influencing forest cover changes in private forests are slope, altitude, education structure, population age and population density. The results also show that the deforestation in private forests is weakening overall, mostly due to the continuation of the de-agrarisation and de-ruralisation processes which began during socialism.

Description: Aggregated analyses of the benefits from ecosystem services (ES) to well-being neglect important differences among beneficiaries and fail to capture the complexity of factors that mediate the ES–well-being relationship. Based on 25 group interviews, we disaggregated the ES–well-being relationships across six groups of potential beneficiaries in a farming landscape in central Romania, Eastern Europe. We explored what mediates distributional patterns of needs and benefits among beneficiaries and identified six contextual factors: (1) characteristics of the appropriated ES; (2) policies, formal institutions, and markets; (3) social and power relations, and informal institutions; (4) household decisions and individual contexts; (5) different perceptions and understandings of equity; and (6) individually held values. Based on these empirically derived factors, we developed a conceptual model of mediating factors that holistically takes into account the contextual space between ES and human beneficiaries. This model provides a framework for unpacking ES–well-being relationships that may guide ES research across varying socioeconomic cases. Notably, this model of mediating factors incorporates an equity perspective that is more refined than the dominant discourse on the relation between poverty and ES (which typically emphasizes that poor people are most dependent on ES, but neglects factors such as power relations and held values). Recognizing multiple contextual factors that shape the contribution of ES to well-being opens doors for harnessing new interdisciplinary collaborations and can help to inform more holistic policy interventions.

Description: Several studies have documented that vegetation in the Sahel is highly dynamic and is affected by the prevailing climatic conditions, as well as by human use of the areas. However, little is known about vegetation dynamics in the large saline areas bordering the rivers of West Africa. Combining satellite imagery, the perception of local people and botanical information, this study investigated the vegetation dynamics and the drivers of vegetation changes in Fatick Province, Senegal. Satellite images showed a change in vegetation composition, i.e., a loss of tree cover and an increase in shrub cover, herbaceous cover and tans (highly saline areas with sparse vegetation). Although the trend was the same, the three villages had different vegetation histories. A survey of the woody vegetation showed that shrubs and young trees were dominating with relatively few large trees. Local people perceived a general decline of woody plants from 1993 to 2013. Among 60 species mentioned by local people, 90 % were declining and 10 % increasing. Together the three methods documented a decrease in density and diversity of the woody vegetation, mainly influenced by salinity and land use. The large numbers of young trees indicate a potential for regeneration of some, but not all, tree species. As many tree species appreciated by local people were reported to be declining, local communities have experienced a reduction of their natural resources. Based on villagers’ recommendations for improved vegetation management, we discuss possible contributions including reforestation, desalinization and environmental protection for restoration of the vegetation.

Description: There is broad consensus that land use/cover has changed in central Europe over millennia. However, few studies have addressed the roles of the anthropogenic (socio-economic) and natural (biophysical) factors driving these changes over shorter periods (e.g., 100 years). In this study, we analyse the determinants of land cover composition at three discrete time periods (c. 1780, 1890, and 2000). We hypothesise that different anthropogenic and natural factors are the determinants of the main land cover types (arable fields, grasslands, and forests) and that the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on the main land cover types differ among landscapes with highly dynamic and more stable forest-open land distributions. The study was carried out in the Uckermark region located in northeastern Germany. We compiled data on natural and anthropogenic factors (e.g. forest cover and number of inhabitants) of 65 municipalities in four landscape sections of equal size (10 × 10 km). Landscape sections were selected to reflect different dynamics (high/low) in conversion from forest to arable fields or grasslands and vice versa from 1780 to 2000. Averaged linear mixed-effect models explained between 7.5 and 81.2 % of the variance. The unique effect of anthropogenic factors varied from 2.1 to 18.7 % and that of natural factors varied from 0.2 to 43.4 %. In four of six models that included both types of factors, the natural factors were more influential than the anthropogenic factors. Except in three cases, anthropogenic and natural factors showed opposite effects on land cover types in more dynamic and more stable windows. Though the Uckermark region has been influenced by human activity for thousands of years, natural factors were a major determinant of land cover composition during all time periods, whereas anthropogenic factors became more important only during the latest time period under investigation.

Description: A quantitative survey of 1,377 households in three war-affected coastal districts of Jaffna, Mannar and Trincomalee in the north and east of Sri Lanka shows that inflation or price hikes, specially fuel, and natural disasters such as floods and droughts are highlighted as the shocks with the biggest impacts on fisher and non-fisher households. We hypothesise that the pattern/severity of households’ coping strategies to face these shocks depends on a set of household characteristics: livelihood diversity, asset ownership, level of education and the ability to borrow. Livelihood diversity, asset ownership and borrowings correlate significantly with the severity of coping strategies adopted by households for both fisher and non-fisher households. Education and livelihood diversification does not show a significant correlation for fisher households although it significantly affects livelihood diversification of both types of households.

Description: Wildfire poses a rising threat in the western USA, fueled by synergies between historical fire suppression, changing land use, insects and disease, and shifts toward a drier, warmer climate. The rugged landscapes of northeast Oregon, with their historically forest- and resource-based economies, have been one of the areas affected. A 2011 survey found area residents highly concerned about fire and insect threats, but not about climate change. In 2014 we conducted a second survey that, to explore this apparent disconnect, included questions about past and future summertime (fire season) temperatures. Although regional temperatures have warmed in recent decades at twice the global rate, accompanied by increasing dryness and fire risks, the warming itself is recognized by only 40 % of our respondents. Awareness of recent warming proves unrelated to individual characteristics that might indicate experience on the land: old-timer versus newcomer status, year-round versus seasonal residence, and ownership of forested land. Perceptions of past warming and expectations of future warming are more common among younger respondents and less common among Tea Party supporters. The best-educated partisans stand farthest apart. Perceptions about local temperatures that are important for adaptation planning thus follow ideological patterns similar to beliefs about global climate change.

Description: Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems and their services are driven by various biophysical and socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these trade-offs by using a three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how the expected global cropland expansion might affect food security in terms of agricultural production and prices, (2) where natural conditions are suitable for cropland expansion under changing climate conditions, and (3) whether this potential conversion to cropland would affect areas of high biodiversity value or conservation importance. Our results show that on the one hand, allowing the expansion of cropland generally results in an improved food security not only in regions where crop production rises, but also in net importing countries such as India and China. On the other hand, the estimated cropland expansion could take place in many highly biodiverse regions, pointing out the need for spatially detailed and context-specific assessments to understand the possible outcomes of different food security strategies. Our multidisciplinary approach is relevant with respect to the Sustainable Development Goals for implementing and enforcing sustainable pathways for increasing agricultural production, and ensuring food security while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Description: A trend of forest area expansion after decades of decline is taking place in many countries around the globe. In Switzerland, forest cover has been expanding since at least the mid-nineteenth century. However, little is known about the patterns of forest area dynamics on a long-term, national scale, nor regarding the precise time of forest transition (FT). In the present study, we reconstruct the trajectories of forest cover over the past 150 years based on historical maps and contemporary national forest inventory data for the purpose of analyzing forest area dynamics at multi-spatial scales. At the national scale, total forest area increased continuously from around 20 % in 1850 to 30 % in 2000, while ancient forest area decreased from 20 % in 1850 down to 11 % in 2000. FT events occurred at the regional scale in the Eastern, Southern and Western Alps around 1880. Since then, forest area has almost doubled in the Southern Alps. In contrast, the Central Plateau is the biogeographical region with the most stable forest cover. The results from the analysis at the local scale confirm the high dynamics in forest cover throughout the study period, causing a steady decline in ancient forest area. These variations in forest cover dynamics confirm the crucial importance of the choice of spatial scale. Historical maps were essential for this long-term study.

Description: Al Jabal Al Akhdar, an arid mountain region in northern Oman, has experienced rapid development over the last decades, resulting in the deterioration of water resources. This paper applies the driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) framework as an integrated environmental assessment tool to illustrate the cause-and-effect relationships for sustainable management of water resources in the area. The research aimed to examine social and ecological aspects of mountain water to explore optimal approaches for sustainable use and management. The water resources are affected by increasing drivers of population growth and socio-economic development, through agriculture, tourism, and urbanization, exerting pressures through overconsumption of water, coupled with the exogenous pressure of climate change. The decreased rainfall and increased water demand have resulted in the degradation of water quantity and quality. The declining state of the water resources and reduced area of cultivation have resulted in considerable losses in agricultural income. The Omani government has adopted some responses, including water development projects, acting to reduce pressures as well as to improve the state of water resources. The DPSIR analysis indicates that trade-offs should be made between economic development and the continued supply of water for the agro-ecological system; choices could be in the prioritization of drivers. A dependence on desalinated water will introduce a reliance on a non-renewable external energy supply and is unlikely to ensure water supply at the multi-century timescale of the social–ecological system. In addition, tourism is predominantly based around the disappearing agro-ecosystems which in turn are dependent on the supply of water. Therefore, efforts should be directed towards improving water-use efficiency through installing modern irrigation technology, water conservation methods, use of greywater and treated wastewater, and rainwater harvesting as well as integrated water resources management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

Description: This paper estimates the impact of land use change on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in China from 1985 to 2005 using a nationwide, georeferenced database on land use, soil, and climate. The method presented here is capable of incorporating site-specific information on soil, climate, and land use change into a national-level analysis. We find that grassland restoration contributed to the largest increase in SOC in China from 1985 to 2005, while grassland degradation caused the largest decrease. Overall, land use change resulted in only a small net increase in SOC, by 7.5 TgC (0.02 %), which is statistically insignificant at the 95 % confidence level. A cost-effectiveness analysis indicates that it is important to consider SOC when assessing land conservation programs. Restoring degraded grassland is more cost-effective than returning dry farmland to grassland. Inner Mongolia is a key region for dense grassland restoration.

Description: Abandoned mines are a recurrent problem for nearby communities in Mediterranean regions because mine tailings represent a major source of polymetallic contamination. Metal contaminants are emitted in mining areas and dispersed by wind and water erosion in the surroundings. The goal of this literature review was to identify the specific features of polymetallic contamination arising from abandoned mines in the Mediterranean regions. Mediterranean climate conditions and local geochemical context are the most important factors that control the metal-bearing particle dispersion toward the different compartments of ecosystems. Acid mine drainage, as an important source of damage to the environment, is limited to a certain extent by the predominance of carbonate rocks in the Mediterranean regions. In opposite, aeolian contamination is specific to the semiarid conditions of the Mediterranean climate. In this context, impacts on different compartments such as agricultural soils and edible plants or human populations were underlined. The analysis of environmental laws and regulations of North and South Mediterranean countries shows that one of the main differences is the lack of identification and definition of mining waste as a public concern in the latter countries. In order to limit the transfer of contaminants from mining waste to the different components of the environment, phytostabilization of mine tailings was considered as the more adapted green technology even in the Mediterranean region where water access is limited. Finally, this review of polymetallic pollution from abandoned mines in Mediterranean regions enabled to identify priority actions for future research.

Description: Integrated water resources management (IWRM) assumes coherence between cognate aspects of water governance at the river basin scale, for example water quality, energy production and agriculture objectives. But critics argue that IWRM is often less ‘integrated’ in practice, raising concerns over inter-sectoral coherence between implementing institutions. One increasingly significant aspect of IWRM is adaptation to climate change-related risks, including threats from flooding, which are particularly salient in England. Although multiple institutional mechanisms exist for flood risk management (FRM), their coherence remains a critical question for national adaptation. This paper therefore (1) maps the multi-level institutional frameworks determining both IWRM and FRM in England; (2) examines their interaction via various inter-institutional coordinating mechanisms; and (3) assesses the degree of coherence. The analysis suggests that cognate EU strategic objectives for flood risk assessment demonstrate relatively high vertical and horizontal coherence with river basin planning. However, there is less coherence with flood risk requirements for land-use planning and national flood protection objectives. Overall, this complex governance arrangement actually demonstrates de-coherence over time due to ongoing institutional fragmentation. Recommendations for increasing IWRM coherence in England or re-coherence based on greater spatial planning and coordination of water-use and land-use strategies are proposed.

Description: Global warming is likely to prolong the growing season at high latitudes where the brevity of the growing season currently limits crop growth and yields. A longer growing season, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), dedicated plant breeding, and adjusted agronomic practices could open new avenues to increase yield potential while reducing risks of various abiotic stresses such as inadequate precipitation. We used statistical and simulation modelling approaches to determine whether future estimates for elevated yield potentials match projected changes (according to the high-emission SRES A2 scenario) in precipitation patterns and volumes, essential prerequisites for high-latitude rainfed agroecosystems. The statistical approach used long-term data sets to estimate future changes in yield potentials resulting from extension of the growing season and new, better adapted cultivars through plant breeding. Estimated increases in potential yield and biomass were 20–54 kg ha −1 per annum for grain or seed yield, depending on crop, excluding the effects of elevated (CO 2 ). We also applied a crop simulation approach, using the WOFOST model, with barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.) as a test crop, to simulate the impact of changing mean climate and the CO 2 fertilisation on biomass development and yield formation under optimal nutrient supply, favourable soils, and complete plant protection. Elevated CO 2 alleviated the drought effects. However, drought risk increased as the projected increases in precipitation seemed insufficient to meet the increasing needs of the potentially higher crop biomasses. Therefore, irrigation systems need to be developed to realise the future higher yield potentials in northern European agricultural systems.

Description: This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan’s complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries’ key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan’s vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan’s climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed.

Description: Coastal areas will increasingly experience adverse climate hazards such as coastal flooding and severe storms as a result of climate change. These hazards adversely affect drinking-water systems and thereby reduce access to safe drinking-water. Effective adaptation implementation minimizes the damaging impacts of these hazards. However, research on the enablers of and barriers to effective adaptation in low-income countries is lacking. This study maps enablers and barriers to climate change adaptation of water systems in coastal low-income countries using evidence from Viet Nam and the Philippines, countries which experience frequent extreme climate events. Interviews were carried out with staff from 29 water utilities and government agencies. A systematic framework for diagnosing barriers to climate change adaptation was used to analyze the responses. Five factors were identified as relevant to effective adaptation: partnerships; financial resources; human and technical resources; leadership and political will; and awareness of climate change. The factors identified were related to all the elements of the framework—actors, system of concern, and context—and were relevant to the three phases of the adaptation process (understanding the problem, planning the adaptation, and managing the implementation). Our findings can assist water system managers in diagnosing barriers to effective adaptation that may exist and identifying relevant partnerships and resources that will aid in overcoming these barriers.

Description: Wetlands play important roles that benefit social-ecological systems. They are threatened by climate change and human activities, i.e., raising livestock and wildlife hunting. The latter is essential for subsistence and for the food security of rural communities. To understand the traditional uses of wildlife, we examined the use of wildlife among people living within and outside of, but close to wetlands, in the communities located in four municipalities of Veracruz, Mexico, using open-ended interviews. We also analyzed the socioeconomic factors and environmental problems associated with the use of wildlife, and how these affect food security. People, especially those living within the wetlands, use wildlife mainly for food and trade. Wildlife is mainly used as food but also as pets, ornaments and medicine. The most useful species were black-bellied whistling duck ( Dendrocygna autumnalis ), nine-banded armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus ) and Meso-American slider ( Trachemys venusta ). People living within the wetland make more intensive use of wildlife. The main problems causing decreasing wildlife populations were water pollution, hunting practices and deforestation. Local communities were aware of the importance of wetlands, their degradation and the need to preserve them. More research focused on socioecological systems is required to address both the need for biodiversity conservation and food security. Also, good local management plans that incorporate current knowledge about key species have to be drawn up with the participation of government and scientific institutions, citizens and local stakeholders.

Description: Reconciling biodiversity conservation and food production may require the fine-tuning of both agricultural intensity and its spatial allocation. Here, we explored whether the optimization of allocation of intensity could improve food production and biodiversity outcomes. We developed a spatially explicit, multi-criteria optimization model for agricultural intensity allocation at the scale of France and at the resolution of small agricultural regions (SARs) with a mean area of 669.6 km 2 . Three thousand allocations were randomly simulated and then optimized under three scenarios: intensification, extensification, and reallocation. Optimization was based on food production and biodiversity outcomes using several metrics, such as habitat specialization and trophic level, that reflect the composition of farmland bird communities. The optimization was based on derived statistical relationships between intensity and the production and biodiversity metrics at the SAR scale using national agricultural statistics and bird census data. Simulations showed that optimal allocations modulated the trade-off among criteria and led to increased efficiency, with optimal extensification increasing biodiversity and minimizing production losses. Furthermore, we revealed “win-no loss” solutions. For example, optimal intensification increased production with almost no biodiversity loss and optimal reallocation benefited biodiversity with almost no cost to production. A variety of agricultural intensity levels were necessary to maintain a diversity of farmland bird communities at the national scale. Although we demonstrate that optimal allocation of intensity can be a powerful means of reconciling diverse criteria at the national scale, its implementation will require new mechanisms for spatially targeted and coordinated policies.

Description: Human activities are continuously expanding at a global scale and having an increasing effect on the remaining natural ecosystems in remote areas, such as the Magellan Region of southern Patagonia, Chile. In addition to extensive livestock holdings, aquaculture and tourism are advancing into formerly undisturbed areas, and insufficient information on the spatial scope and intensity of these alterations is available to inform and support conservation policies. The aim of this study was to spatially analyse the degree, scope and spatial distribution of anthropogenic alterations. Accordingly, two spatially explicit indexes, the degree of anthropogenic alteration (DAA) and human influence index (HII), have been applied. The results show a significant spatial overestimation of the remaining undisturbed natural areas. Despite low population densities and extensive conservation designations, a major share of the total area has been anthropogenically altered. Depending on the measure type, between 53.1 % (DAA) and 68.1 % of the area (HII) needs to be considered as influenced by human activity in some way. Our findings challenge previous studies by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS and CIESIN in Last of the wild project, version 2, 2005 (LWP-2): last of the wild dataset (Geographic), NASA socioeconomic data and applications center (SEDAC), Palisades, 2005 ). Their worldwide assessment of pristine natural environments indicated that a much smaller part of the Magellan region has been subject to human influence. The chosen methodologies represent an opportunity to detect and monitor human influence at small spatial scales, which has heretofore remained unnoticed. Because such alterations are becoming more frequent in remote regions, the assessment approaches presented here provide important information on human–environment interactions to support land-use and nature conservation policy design. In addition, small-scale structures and different types of economic activities are considered to support policies that can protect the remaining natural areas from human encroachment. Moreover, implications of the proposed methodology for biodiversity conservation policy are discussed.

Description: Drylands are home to more than two billion people and are characterised by frequent, severe droughts. Such extreme events are expected to be exacerbated in the near future by climate change. A potentially simple and cost-effective mitigation measure against drought periods is sand dams. This little-known technology aims to promote subsoil rainwater storage to support dryland agro-ecosystems. To date, there is little long-term empirical analysis that tests the effectiveness of this approach during droughts. This study addresses this shortcoming by utilising multi-year satellite imagery to monitor the effect of droughts at sand dam locations. A time series of satellite images was analysed to compare vegetation at sand dam sites and control sites over selected periods of drought, using the normalised difference vegetation index. The results show that vegetation biomass was consistently and significantly higher at sand dam sites during periods of extended droughts. It is also shown that vegetation at sand dam sites recovers more quickly from drought. The observed findings corroborate modelling-based research which identified related impacts on ground water, land cover, and socio-economic indicators. Using past periods of drought as an analogue to future climate change conditions, this study indicates that sand dams have potential to increase adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change in drylands. It therefore can be concluded that sand dams enhance the resilience of marginal environments and increase the adaptive capacity of drylands. Sand dams can therefore be a promising adaptation response to the impacts of future climate change on drylands.

Description: This article argues for revisiting the institutional architecture of wildlife conservation in light of two recent trends: Increased popularity of landscape-level approaches and the recognition that conservation interventions must address longstanding questions of forest and land rights of local residents. The inquiry draws upon primary research conducted in Kanha National Park and Tiger Reserve, which is world renowned for its rich flora and fauna, but is also the site of a longstanding struggle over land rights of Adivasis, India’s indigenous people. The institutional landscape of contemporary wildlife conservation regimes, this article shows, is a product of the interlocking of socioeconomic inequalities and the dominant models of wildlife conservation. The analysis presented here follows a political economy of institutions approach, which underlines how the social, economic, and political contexts shape institutional outcomes. Findings from this analysis will inform the proposals for transformational institutional interventions aimed to meet the triple bottom line of social justice, broad-based economic development, and ecological stewardship.

Description: Contemporary water management practices worldwide are informed by two leading paradigms: integrated water resources management and adaptive management. While previous scholarship has already studied the two paradigms, as well as their central principles, in isolation, there are few attempts only to theorise their interaction and to explore empirically their parallel implementation and coexistence. This article contributes to this emerging literature. Its ambition is to review and complement current frameworks conceptualising the impact of integrated water resources management on adaptive capacity. To this end, the article analyses the involvement of non-state actors in UK water and flood risk management, specifically in England and Wales. This is an exciting case to study: for many decades, environmental management in England and Wales had a reputation for being a technocratic exercise. In the past 15 years, however, environmental authorities undertook major efforts to lay the foundations for enhanced collaboration and stakeholder participation, amongst others encouraged by two European Union initiatives reflecting integrated and adaptive management principles: the Water Framework Directive and the Floods Directive. The empirical evidence suggests a spurious link only between the two paradigms. This contradicts conventional wisdom which, so I argue, tends to oversimplify a complex relationship. I introduce three theory-informed arguments—relating to conceptual diversity, path dependency, and the nature of the dependent variable—to address these shortcomings and to contribute to theory building.

Description: Seasonal runoff generation in a headwater (~100 km 2 ) of the mountainous Sugnugr Basin, situated within the discontinuous permafrost zone of northern Mongolia, was investigated. The role of the active layer and the effects of a recent wildfire on runoff generation were elucidated. On the catchment scale, stormflow events were investigated by streamflow hydrograph analysis and stable isotope investigations. Hydrological response parameters indicate increasing recession periods and delayed flow fractions during summer as active layer thickness increases. Isotopic signature revealed a high ratio of meltwater in river baseflow in early summer and a gradual decline until the beginning of September. During a stormflow event in early summer, a high fraction of event water was determined by two-component hydrograph separation. At a taiga-vegetated hillslope, subsurface flow was observed following precipitation events after a relative increase in upper soil volumetric water content (VWC i ) of 0.05 m 3  m −3 , demonstrating the retarding characteristics of the organic surface layer. Depending on active layer depth, subsurface flow predominantly occurred in the organic surface layer in early summer and subsequently subsided into the underlying mineral layer as soils thawed. After a wildfire, the water retention capacity of the organic surface layer diminished, as was reflected by a VWC i of 0.01 m 3  m −3 . Here, stormflow water temperatures indicated quickflow in the mineral layer above a degenerated frost table. The results of the study suggest that wildfires increase stormflow runoff while baseflow declines. Hence, the problem of water shortages in downstream areas during dry weather conditions is exacerbated.

Description: Due to the growing world population and changing eating habits, there is an increasing demand in sustainable alternative protein sources, whereas the available land for the production of plant and animal protein decreases owing to desertification and urbanization. Furthermore, the rapidly decreasing resources of fossil fuels necessitate more sustainable production cycles combined with well-conceived land use. This includes the establishment of novel utilization pathways for hitherto not or insufficiently used biomass. In this context, insects offer prospective alternatives, since they represent highly efficient and, due to evolutionary processes, highly optimized bioreactors that have the ability to effectively and autonomously convert biomass into biochemical compounds such as proteins, fat, and chitin by combined mechanical, chemical, and microbiological degradation. Furthermore, insects are a vastly underutilized bioresource and need to be exploited for the bioconversion and valorization also of hitherto not usable organic residues to food, feed, chemicals, enzymes, and other bioactive compounds. Mentionable is here also the production of attractants, repellants, defensive, and other chemicals such as antimicrobial peptides that open up new opportunities for therapeutical and biotechnological applications, for example regarding plant pest management.

Description: Past and present gold mining operations scattered throughout the Kharaa River basin, Mongolia, have been identified as a major source of heavy metal and metalloid contamination. However, the potential accumulation of toxic contaminates including Cr, Zn, As, Cd, Hg, Cu, Ni and Pb in the resident fish fauna and the subsequent human health risks associated with their consumption have previously not been quantified. In the current study, contaminates in water, sediment and five consumed fish species ( Leuciscus baicalensis , Thymallus baicalensis , Brachymystax lenok , Lota lota and Silurus asotus ) were examined. The results indicated that concentrations of As and Hg exceeded the national permissible limits for drinking water in the Gatsuurt tributary of 10 μg L -1 and 0.05 μg L -1 respectively, while Hg contents detected in the sediment of the Boroo tributary were highly elevated (0.78 μg g -1 ). Heavy metal and arsenic accumulation was evident in all five fish species sampled across the basin, with maximum muscle contents of Cr, As, Hg and Pb detected in several species caught in the middle and lower river reaches, while Zn was highly elevated in B. lenok collected in the upper tributaries. Elevated median contents of Cr, Cu, Hg and Pb increased with trophic level, with Hg accumulation posing the greatest threat to humans as 10.7 % of all fish sampled in the study exceeded the internationally recommended threshold for Hg in consumable fish tissue. Although recreational fishing is rapidly growing throughout Mongolia, the overall level of fish capture and consumption remains relatively low. However, increasing pollution and accumulation in resident fish species could lead to chronic heavy metal intoxication in people who consume them regularly from the most polluted regions of the basin, while additionally being exposed to other sources of contamination.

Description: The Carpathians are the largest European mountain range and harbour exceptional biodiversity. However, recent and anticipated changes in climate along with rapid social and economic development suggest that the region’s values may not be sustained. We strived to identify the main regional climate change hot-spots and evaluate the distribution of climatically exposed land-use types and ecosystems. The analysis was based on 10 climate models driven by the emission scenario A1B. To identify the hot-spots, we adopted a methodology based on change trajectories in a multidimensional climate space. Three hot-spots were in the Western Carpathians (Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary), two were in Ukraine, and three were in the Romanian and Serbian Carpathians. Regions with the highest aggregate climate exposure (i.e. above 70 % of the regional range) were mostly covered by broadleaved forests (39 %), agricultural land (30 %), and pastures and woodlands (15 %). These regions also contained 15 % of protected areas and 36 % of the total human population in the Carpathians. While growing season length was the main factor affecting hot-spot magnitude in the north-west, precipitation-related variables were the main factors in the east and south. Analysis of inter-climate model variability indicated that the level of confidence in hot-spot position and magnitude differed among hot-spots. In addition to identifying a large-scale regional pattern of climate change, we showed that there are sub-regions with remarkably high climate exposure. The hot-spot distribution in lower elevations suggests that Carpathian ecosystems in water-limited environment may be particularly exposed to climate change.

Description: African land systems play a decisive role in addressing future sustainability challenges for food and energy supply—in Africa and potentially elsewhere. Knowledge on the magnitude and efficiency of current land use and its socio-economic frame conditions is scarce but required to provide an appropriate basis for estimating production potentials and efficiency improvements. We apply the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) framework to analyze African land systems and their dynamics between 1980 and 2005. HANPP measures human-induced changes in ecological biomass flows and allows analyzing the efficiency with which humans use the natural resource NPP (Net Primary Production). In 2005, African HANPP amounts to 20 %, which is below the global average of 23 %, and has grown significantly (+55 %) since 1980. HANPP efficiency (i.e., the ratio of used biomass extraction to total HANPP) is low (35 %) in contrast to the global average of 48 %. Large regional variations (ranging from 18 % in Central Africa to 〉100 % in Northern Africa) and only small improvements of +11 % on average have been observed. In the study period, the growth of HANPP has been mostly driven by land-use expansion. We conclude that the observed low HANPP efficiency in Africa suggests that there may be potentials for improving the efficiency of biomass production on existing land-uses rather than increasing output trough further land expansion. We discuss policy implications that could help better utilizing existing potentials to increase land-use efficiency in a sustainable manner.