ALBERT

Description: The paper introduces a technique that decomposes the dynamics of a nonlinear system about an equilibrium into low-order components, which then can be used to reconstruct the full dynamics. This is a nonlinear analogue of linear modal analysis. The dynamics is decomposed using Invariant Spectral Foliation (ISF), which is defined as the smoothest invariant foliation about an equilibrium and hence unique under general conditions. The conjugate dynamics of an ISF can be used as a reduced order model. An ISF can be fitted to vibration data without carrying out a model identification first. The theory is illustrated on a analytic example and on free-vibration data of a clamped-clamped beam.

Description: Impacts of spectral nudging on simulations of Arctic climate in coupled simulations have been investigated in a set of simulations with a regional climate model (RCM). The dominantly circumpolar circulation in the Arctic lead to weak constraints on the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the RCM, which causes large internal variability with strong deviations from the driving model. When coupled to an ocean and sea ice model, this results in sea ice concentrations that deviate from the observed spatial distribution. Here, a method of spectral nudging is applied to the atmospheric model RCA4 in order to assess the potentials for improving results for the sea ice concentrations when coupled to the RCO ocean-sea ice model. The spectral nudging applied to reanalysis driven simulations significantly improves the generated sea ice regarding its temporal evolution, extent and inter-annual trends, compared to simulations with standard LBC nesting. The method is furthermore evaluated with driving data from two CMIP5 GCM simulations for current and future conditions. The GCM biases are similar to the RCA4 biases with ERA-Interim, however, the spectral nudging still improves the surface winds enough to show improvements in the simulated sea ice. For both GCM downscalings, the spectrally nudged version retains a larger sea ice extent in September further into the future. Depending on the sea ice formulation in the GCM, the temporal evolution of the regional sea ice model can deviate strongly.

Description: The increased rate of Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) surface warming has gained a lot of attention in the recent years mainly due to its regional climatic impacts. The processes associated with this increased surface warming is highly complex and none of the mechanisms in the past studies could comprehend the important features associated with this warming such as the negative trends in surface net heat fluxes and the decreasing temperature trends at thermocline level. In this work we studied a previously unexplored aspect, the changes in large scale surface circulation pattern modulating the surface warming pattern over TIO. We use ocean reanalysis datasets and a suit of Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) experiments to address this problem. Both reanalysis and OGCM reveal strengthening large scale surface circulation pattern in the recent years. The most striking feature is the intensification of cyclonic gyre circulation around the thermocline ridge in the southwestern TIO. The surface circulation change in TIO is mainly associated with the surface wind changes and the geostrophic response to sea surface height decrease in the western/southwestern TIO. The surface wind trends closely correspond to SST warming pattern. The strengthening mean westerlies over the equatorial region are conducive to convergence in the central and divergence in the western equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) resulting central warming and western cooling. The resulting east west SST gradient further enhances the equatorial westerlies. This positive feedback mechanism supports strengthening of the observed SST trends in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The cooling induced by the enhanced upwelling in the west is compensated to a large extent by warming due to reduction in mixed layer depth, thereby keeping the surface temperature trends in the west to weak positive values. The OGCM experiments showed that the wind induced circulation changes redistribute the excess heat received in the western TIO to central and east thereby enhancing warming in the central equatorial IO. The increased surface warming in central TIO increases the latent heat loss, and keeps the net heat flux trends negative. Model sensitivity experiments reveal that the subsurface cooling at thermocline level in TIO is contributed by variability in Pacific via Indonesian Through Flow whereas the surface warming trend is mainly induced by the changes in the local forcing. The long term changes in IO Rossby waves are not induced by local atmospheric forcing but are forced by Pacific. The thermocline shoaling in the west is therefore amplified by the remote influence of Pacific via wave transmission through Indonesian archipelago.

Description: The stick–slip model of a Girling brake is composed of nonlinear and coupled differential equations that reproduce the friction occurring in this mechanical system. The brake is equivalent to a body sliding on a belt. The problem is very interesting since the possible solutions, which are very sensitive to the parameters of the system, show a chaotic behaviour. In this contribution, the model, which is designed following network method rules, is explained in detail and runs on standard electrical circuit simulation software to provide the displacement and the velocity of the sliding body and the phase planes. In comparison with other models, the considered system does not include dampers to get a more unstable behaviour. Furthermore, a suitable selection of parameters is implemented to reduce the computational time.

Description: An on-line, ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) method is performed to reconstruct the climate for 1750–1850 AD, and the performance is evaluated on large and small spatial scales. We use a low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology MPI-ESM model and assimilate the PAGES 2K continental mean temperature reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The ensembles are generated sequentially for sub-periods based on the analysis of previous sub-periods. The assimilation has good skill for large-scale temperatures, but there is no agreement between the DA analysis and proxy-based reconstructions for small-scale temperature patterns within Europe or with reconstructions for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. To explain the lack of added value in small spatial scales, a maximum covariance analysis (MCA) of links between NH temperature and sea level pressure is performed based on a control simulation with MPI-ESM. For annual values, winter and spring the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) is the pattern that is most closely linked to the NH continental temperatures, while for summer and autumn it is a wave-like pattern. This link is reproduced in the DA for winter, spring and annual means, providing potential for constraining the NAM/NAO phase and in turn regional temperature variability. It is shown that the lack of actual small-scale skill is likely due to the fact that the link might be too weak, as the NH continental mean temperatures are not the best predictors for large-scale circulation anomalies, or that the PAGES 2K temperatures include noise. Both factors can lead to circulation anomalies in the DA analysis that are substantially different from reality, leading to unrealistic representation of small-scale temperature variability. Moreover, we show that even if the true amplitudes of the leading MCA circulation patterns were known, there is still a large amount of unexplained local temperature variance. Based on these results, we argue that assimilating temperature reconstructions with a higher spatial resolution might improve the DA performance.

Description: We analyse the impact of migration and strength of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds on the ocean carbon cycle in a systematic sensitivity study with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model. We find that changes in the biological pump are mainly driven by changes in ocean residence times while changes in export production are negligible. Changes in the biological and physical pumps are always of opposite sign; with the physical pump being dominant for southward shifts and the biological pump being dominant for northward shifts. Furthermore, changes in the Pacific Ocean carbon budget dictate the overall changes in global marine and atmospheric carbon. Overall, atmospheric \(\hbox {CO}_2\) increases (and \(\Delta ^{14}\hbox {C}\) decreases) for northward shifts or a strengthening in wind forcing. The opposite is true for a southward shift or a weakening in wind forcing. Combining forcings (shift and intensity change) results in a combination of their impacts with the direction of the shift being the first order forcing. The terrestrial carbon reservoir absorbs (releases) 50–70 % of the net oceanic carbon loss (increase), counterbalancing the effect on atmospheric \(\hbox {CO}_2\) .

Description: Effects of wind and fresh water on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated using a fully coupled climate model. The AMOC can change significantly when perturbed by either wind stress or freshwater flux in the North Atlantic. This study focuses on wind stress effect. Our model results show that the wind forcing is crucial in maintaining the AMOC. Reducing wind forcing over the ocean can cause immediately weakening of the vertical salinity diffusion and convection in the mid-high latitudes Atlantic, resulting in an enhancement of vertical salinity stratification that restrains the deep water formation there, triggering a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. As the thermohaline circulation weakens, the sea ice expands southward and melts, providing the upper ocean with fresh water that weakens the thermohaline circulation further. The wind perturbation experiments suggest a positive feedback between sea-ice and thermohaline circulation strength, which can eventually result in a complete shutdown of the AMOC. This study also suggests that sea-ice variability may be also important to the natural AMOC variability on decadal and longer timescales.

Description: The relationship between the large-scale circulation dynamics and regional precipitation regime in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has so far not been well understood. In this study, we classify the circulation types using the self-organizing maps based on the daily field of 500 hPa geopotential height and link them to the precipitation climatology in the eastern and central TP. By virtue of an objective determining method, 18 circulation types are quantified. The results show that the large amount of precipitation in summer is closely related to the circulation types in which the enhanced and northward shifted subtropical high (SH) over the northwest Pacific and the obvious cyclconic circulation anomaly over the Bay of Bengal are helpful for the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon to take abundant low-latitude moisture to the eastern and southern TP. On the contrary, the dry winter in the central and eastern Tibet corresponds to the circulation types with divergence over the central and eastern TP and the water vapor transportations of East Asian winter monsoon and mid-latitude westerly are very weak. Some circulation types are associated with some well-known circulation patterns/monsoons influencing the TP (e.g. East Atlantic Pattern, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Summer Monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly), and exhibit an overall good potential for explaining the variability of regional seasonal precipitation. Moreover, the climate shift signals in the late 1970s over the eastern Pacific/North Pacific Oceans could also be reflected by both the variability of some circulation types and their correspondingly composite precipitations. This study extends our understandings for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and their linkages with regional precipitation and is beneficial for the climate change projection and related adaptation activities in the highest and largest plateau in the world.

Description: Based on the historical and RCP8.5 experiments from 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) on the projected change in summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) are investigated. The analysis is designed to answer three questions: (1) Can CMIP5 models reproduce the observed influence of the IO sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the CA rainfall variations and the associated dynamical processes? (2) How well do the models agree on their projected rainfall changes over CA under warmed climate? (3) How much of the uncertainty in such rainfall projections is due to different impacts of IO SSTs in these models? The historical experiments show that in most models summer rainfall over CA are positively correlated to the SSTs in the IO. Furthermore, for models with higher rainfall-SSTs correlations, the dynamical processes accountable for such impacts are much closer to what have been revealed in observational data: warmer SSTs tend to favor the development of anti-cyclonic circulation patterns at low troposphere over north and northwest of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These anomalous circulation patterns correspond to significantly enhanced southerly flow which carries warm and moisture air mass from the IO region up to the northeast. At the same time, there is a cyclonic flow over the central and eastern part of the CA which further brings the tropical moisture into the CA and provides essential moist conditions for its rainfall generation. In the second half of twenty-first century, although all the 25 models simulate warmed SSTs, significant uncertainty exists in their projected rainfall changes over CA: half of them suggest summer rainfall increases, but the other half project rainfall decreases. However, when we select seven models out of the 25 based on their skills in capturing the dynamical processes as observed, then the model projected changes are much closer. Five out of the seven models predicted more rainfall over CA. Such a result is helpful for allowing us to attribute part of the observed upward rainfall trend in the CA region in the last several decades to the IO SST warming.

Description: Cyclonic windstorms are one of the most important natural hazards for Europe, but robust climate projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic storm track are not yet possible, bearing significant risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies addressing the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data show large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model’s basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms, which could create compensating effects and therefore suggest higher reliability than there really is. This work aims to shed new light into this problem through a cost-effective “seamless” approach of hindcasting 20 historical severe storms with the two global climate models, ECHAM6 and GA4 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, run in a numerical weather prediction mode using different lead times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent heating, as the main source for the under-prediction in the coarse-resolution runs. Finally, an interesting implication of these results is that the too low number of deep cyclones in many free-running climate simulations may therefore be related to an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions. This question will be addressed in future work.

Description: Extreme precipitation and flood episodes in the Himalayas are oftentimes traced to synoptic situations involving connections between equatorward advancing upper level extratropical circulations and moisture-laden tropical monsoon circulation. While previous studies have documented precipitation characteristics in the Himalayan region during severe storm cases, a comprehensive understanding of circulation dynamics of extreme precipitation mechanisms is still warranted. In this study, a detailed analysis is performed using rainfall observations and reanalysis circulation products to understand the evolution of monsoon-extratropical circulation features and their interactions based on 34 extreme precipitation events which occurred in the Western Himalayas (WEH) during the period 1979–2013. Our results provide evidence for a common large-scale circulation pattern connecting the extratropics and the South Asian monsoon region, which is favorable for extreme precipitation occurrences in the WEH region. This background upper level large-scale circulation pattern consists of a deep southward penetrating midlatitude westerly trough, a blocking high over western Eurasia and an intensifying Tibetan anticyclone. It is further seen from our analysis that the key elements of monsoon-midlatitude interactions, responsible for extreme precipitation events over the WEH region, are: (1) midlatitude Rossby wave breaking, (2) west-northwest propagation of monsoon low-pressure system from the Bay of Bengal across the Indian subcontinent, (3) eddy shedding of the Tibetan anticyclone, (4) ageostrophic motions and transverse circulation across the Himalayas, and (5) strong moist convection over the Himalayan foothills. Furthermore, high-resolution numerical simulations indicate that diabatic heating and mesoscale ageostrophic effects can additionally amplify the convective motions and precipitation in the WEH region.

Description: This paper examines the difference in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mean state between free and assimilative simulations of a common ocean model using a common interannual atmospheric forcing. In the assimilative simulation, the reproduction of cold cores in the Nordic Seas, which is absent in the free simulation, enhances the overflow to the North Atlantic and improves AMOC with enhanced transport of the deeper part of the southward return flow. This improvement also induces an enhanced supply of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and causes better representation of the Atlantic deep layer despite the fact that correction by the data assimilation is applied only to temperature and salinity above a depth of 1750 m. It also affects Circumpolar Deep Water in the Southern Ocean. Although the earliest influence of the improvement propagated by coastal waves reaches the Southern Ocean in 10–15 years, substantial influence associated with the arrival of the renewed NADW propagates across the Atlantic Basin in several decades. Although the result demonstrates that data assimilation is able to improve the deep ocean state even if there is no data there, it also indicates that long-term integration is required to reproduce variability in the deep ocean originating from variations in the upper ocean. This study thus provides insights on the reliability of AMOC and the ocean state in the Atlantic deep layer reproduced by data assimilation systems.

Description: The drivers in actual traffic differ in the aggressiveness in driving behaviors, which will finally be reflected in the interaction between vehicles and fluctuations in flows. In this paper, we try to study the effect of driving aggressiveness on the traffic stability by proposing an extended microscopic car-following model, in which the optimal velocity is reconstructed to divide the drivers in traffic system into two groups according to driving aggressiveness of each individual. The stability condition of the proposed model is derived to explore its ability against a small perturbation by use of the linear stability theory. We obtain the neutral stability lines for different percentages of drivers with a higher driving aggressiveness, finding that the traffic flow trends to stable with the increase in the percentage for higher driving aggressiveness drivers when the average headway is less than a critical value or greater than another critical value, but when the average headway falls into the intermediate range between the two critical values, the traffic flow becomes more and more unstable with increase in the percentage of drivers with a higher driving aggressiveness. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to verify these theoretical results and examine how the percentage of vehicles driven by higher driving aggressiveness drivers affects the traffic flux of the vehicle system.

Description: This paper investigates adaptive synchronization of stochastic time-varying delay dynamical networks with complex-variable systems. By using the complex inequality, stochastic analysis theory and two kinds of random disturbances, several sufficient conditions to ensure adaptive synchronization for stochastic time-varying delay networks with complex-variable systems. To illustrate the effectiveness of the synchronization conditions derived in this paper, numerical examples are provided finally.

Description: This paper presents the unified cooperative strategies for the salvo attack of multiple missiles on the basis of the traditional proportional navigation (PN) algorithm. The cooperative guidance laws are developed in a quite simple formulation consisting of a PN component for target capture and a coordination component for simultaneous arrival. The centralized coordination algorithms have better performance when the global information of time-to-go can be obtained by each missile, whereas the decentralized coordination algorithms come into effect when the group member is only able to collect information from its neighbors. The cooperative strategies can achieve a simultaneous attack against both stationary and maneuvering targets. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate that the proposed approaches are feasible and flexible for the salvo attack of multiple missiles. The capturability analyses of the cooperative guidance laws are also performed by discussing the selection of gain parameters.

Description: In this work we complete the integrability conditions (i.e., conditions for the existence of a local analytic first integral) for a family of a resonant saddle perturbed with homogeneous quintic nonlinearities studied in a previous work. In order to obtain the necessary conditions we use modular arithmetic computations.

Description: The chaotic behavior of the secondary asteroid in a system of binary asteroids due to the asphericity and orbital eccentricity is investigated analytically and numerically. The binary asteroids are modeled with a sphere–ellipsoid model, in which the secondary asteroid is ellipsoid. The first-order resonance is studied for different values of asphericity and eccentricity of the secondary asteroid. The results of the Chirikov method are verified by Poincare section which show good agreement between analytical and numerical methods. It is also shown that asphericity and eccentricity affect the size of resonance regions such that beyond the threshold value, the resonance overlapping occurs and widespread chaos is visible.

Description: An efficient and secure three-party authenticated key agreement protocol is proposed to enable two users to establish a common secret key for exchanging confidential and authenticated information with the help of a trusted server. The proposed protocol only employs extended chaotic maps and hash operations, i.e., it does not require a server public key, symmetric cryptosystems, time-consuming modular exponential computations, or time-consuming modular exponential computations and scalar multiplications on elliptic curve. A round-efficient version of the proposed protocol is also implemented by rearranging and sending the messages in parallel. The session security of the proposed protocol is based on the Chebyshev chaotic map-based Diffie–Hellman assumption. Compared to related chaotic map-based approaches, the proposed protocol not only requires lower computational cost, but also has fewer transmissions.

Description: The southeast region of Brazil experienced in austral summer 2014 a major drought event leading to a number of impacts in water availability for human consumption, agricultural irrigation and hydropower production. This study aims to perform a diagnostic analysis of the observed climate conditions during this event, including an inspection of the occurred precipitation anomalies in the context of previous years, and an investigation of possible relationships with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation patterns. The sea surface temperature analysis revealed that the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean region near the coast of southeast Brazil showed strong negative association with precipitation over southeast Brazil, indicating that increased sea temperatures in this ocean region are consistent with reduced precipitation as observed in summer 2014. The circulation analysis revealed prevailing anti-cyclonic anomalies at lower levels (850 hPa) with northerly anomalies to the west of southeast Brazil, channeling moisture from the Amazon towards Paraguay, northern Argentina and southern Brazil, and drier than normal air from the South Atlantic Ocean towards the southeast region of Brazil. This circulation pattern was found to be part of a large-scale teleconnection wave train linked with the subsidence branch of the Walker circulation in the tropical east Pacific, which in turn was generated by an anomalous tropical heat source in north/northeastern Australia. A regional Hadley circulation with an ascending branch to the south of the subsidence branch of the Walker circulation in the tropical east Pacific was identified as an important component connecting the tropical and extratropical circulation. The ascending branch of this Hadley circulation in the south Pacific coincided with an identified Rossby wave source region, which contributed to establishing the extratropical component of the large-scale wave train connecting the south Pacific and the Atlantic region surrounding southeast Brazil. This connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic was confirmed with Rossby ray tracing analyses. The local circulation response was associated to downward air motion (subsidence) over Southeast Brazil, contributing to the expressive negative precipitation anomalies observed during summer 2014, and leading to a major drought event in the historical context. The analysis of atmospheric and oceanic patterns of this event helped defining a schematic framework leading to the observed drought conditions in southeast Brazil, including the involved teleconnections, blocking high pressure, radiative and humidity transport effects.

Description: In this paper, a novel adaptive neural network control approach is presented for a class of uncertain discrete-time nonlinear strict-feedback systems with input saturation. By combining single neural network approximation and minimal learning parameter technique, the proposed approach is able to eliminate the complexity growing problem and alleviate the explosion of learning parameters. An auxiliary design system is incorporated into the control scheme to overcome the problem of input saturation constraints. Following this approach, the designed controller contains only one actual control law and one adaptive law, the numbers of input variables and weights of neural network updated online are decreased drastically, and the number of parameter updated online for whole system is reduced to only one. Compared with the existing methods, the adaptive mechanism with much simpler controller structure and minimal learning parameterization is achieved; therefore, the computational burden is lighter. It is shown via Lyapunov theory that all signals in the closed-loop system are uniformly ultimately bounded. Finally, simulation results via two examples are employed to illustrate the effectiveness and merits of the proposed scheme.

Description: The existence of cut-off lows (COLs) over South Pacific and South America is often associated with adverse weather events such as intense precipitation over the central region of South America, frost episodes in southern Brazil and the development of Andes lee cyclones and intense cyclones over the southern coast of Brazil. Despite this importance, the formation and maintenance mechanisms of the COLs are not well understood. To detail the significant variability in terms of the eddy kinetic energy equation for fifty cases of COLs that formed over the southeastern Pacific Ocean is the aim of this study. Only the cases of COLs that formed over the ocean and remained there during most of their life were chosen. The main terms of the equation [ageostrophic flux convergence (AFC), baroclinic conversion (BRC) and barotropic conversion (BRT)] were calculated using the 6-hourly gridded data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy reanalysis. The formation mechanism of the COLs was associated with BRC and AFC. During the midlife period, the BRC term converted eddy kinetic energy to eddy potential energy and the AFC had a positive contribution until 6 h after the midlife point. In the dissipation phase, the BRC term remained positive and AFC became negative. The BRT extracted kinetic energy from the COL during the entire life cycle. The AFC term was the most important in all phases of the cut-off lifetime, and it was the responsible for extending the cut-off lifetime while the others terms were negatives.

Description: The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere–ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further explains the possible reasons behind the realistic simulation of northward propagating BSISO in CFS T382, even though the model shows substantial biases in simulating mean state and other BSISO modes.

Description: This paper investigates the problem of global coordinated tracking of a multi-agent system with input additive uncertainties and disturbances via bounded control inputs. Scheduled low-and-high gain feedback-based distributed coordinated tracking protocols are developed. It is shown that, under the assumptions that each agent is asymptotically null controllable with bounded controls and the network is connected, global coordinated tracking of the multi-agent system can be achieved. We finally show some numerical simulations to verify and illustrate the theoretical results.

Description: In this paper, a four-neuron delayed system with inertial terms is considered. By studying the distribution of the eigenvalues of the associated characteristic equation, we derive the critical values where double Hopf bifurcation occurs. Then by employing the perturbation-incremental scheme for the system, bifurcation diagrams are obtained. Furthermore, we carry out bifurcation analysis showing that there exist a stable fixed point, two stable periodic solutions, co-existence of a pair of stable periodic solutions and quasi-periodic motion in the neighborhood of the double Hopf critical point. We also find some interesting phenomena that the dynamical period switching occurs in some delayed regions. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to support the theoretical analysis.

Description: Analytical spatiotemporal soliton solutions of the coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation are derived in the (3  \(+\)  1)-dimensional inhomogeneous \(\mathcal {PT}\) -symmetric nonlinear couplers by means of the Hirota bilinear method. Based on these analytical solutions, we construct abundant spatiotemporal soliton structures and discuss the expansion and compression behaviors of spatiotemporal soliton structures in a periodic modulation system.

Description: In this paper we develop a systematic and self-consistent procedure based on a set of compatibility conditions for identifying all maximal (eight parameter) and non-maximal (one and two parameter) symmetry groups associated with the mixed quadratic-linear Liénard-type equation, \(\ddot{x} + f(x){\dot{x}}^{2} + g(x)\dot{x}+h(x)= 0\) , where \(f(x),\,g(x)\) and h ( x ) are arbitrary functions of x . With the help of this procedure we show that a symmetry function b ( t ) is zero for non-maximal cases, whereas it is not so for the maximal case. On the basis of this result the symmetry analysis gets divided into two cases, (i) the maximal symmetry group \((b\ne 0)\) and (ii) non-maximal symmetry groups \((b=0)\) . We then identify the most general form of the mixed quadratic linear Liénard-type equation in each of these cases. In the case of eight-parameter symmetry group, the identified general equation becomes linearizable. In the case of non-maximal symmetry groups the identified equations are all integrable. The integrability of all the equations is proved either by providing the general solution or by constructing time-independent Hamiltonians.

Description: This paper reveals the dynamical behaviors of a coupled network consisting of four neural sub-networks and multiple two-way couplings of neurons between the individual sub-networks. Different types of time delays are introduced into the internal connections within the individual sub-networks and the couplings between the sub-networks. Stability switches of the network equilibrium and Hopf bifurcation are analyzed by discussing the associated characteristic equation. The conditions for the existence of different patterns of oscillations are discussed. By using the Lyapunov’s second method, the global stability of the network equilibrium is studied. Numerical simulations are performed to validate the theoretical results, and rich dynamical behaviors are observed, such as synchronous oscillations, multiple stability switches between the rest state and oscillations, phase-locked oscillations, asynchronous oscillations, and the coexistence of different patterns of bifurcated oscillations.

Description: A significant impediment to the deployment of vibration-based energy harvesting devices has been the limitation of most low-frequency transducers, usually in the form of unimorph or bimorph cantilever beam, to extract energy from a very narrow bandwidth around the transducer’s fundamental frequency. In such devices, a slight deviation from the fundamental frequency causes a significant reduction in the level of harvested power by several orders of magnitudes. Additionally, most of the current research efforts on the design of piezoelectric energy harvesters have had limited success in achieving low resonance frequency. To overcome these challenges, we introduce an enhanced broadband low-frequency piezomagnetoelastic energy harvester. This harvester consists of a partially covered piezoelectric cantilever beam with a fixed magnet mass at the top of the magnet tip mass. A nonlinear distributed-parameter model based on Euler–Bernoulli beam theory and Galerkin discretization is developed. This electromechanical model is validated with previous experimental measurements for a specific value of the spacing distance between the two magnets. A parametric study is performed to determine the effects of the spacing distance between the two magnets on the static position of the harvester, natural frequency, and level of the harvested power. It is demonstrated that a decrease between the two attractive magnets results in a decrease in the natural frequency of the harvester with a strong softening behavior which gives the opportunity to harvest energy at broadband low-frequency range. The results also show that the presence and importance of the softening behavior depends on the electrical load resistance. In conclusion, the results show that depending on the available low excitation frequency, an enhanced piezoelectric energy harvester can be tuned and optimized by changing the spacing distance between the two tip magnets.

Description: The TAO/TRITON array is the cornerstone of the tropical Pacific and ENSO observing system. Motivated by the recent rapid decline of the TAO/TRITON array, the potential utility of TAO/TRITON was assessed for ENSO monitoring and prediction. The analysis focused on the period when observations from Argo floats were also available. We coordinated observing system experiments (OSEs) using the global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for the period 2004–2011. Four OSE simulations were conducted with inclusion of different subsets of in situ profiles: all profiles (XBT, moorings, Argo), all except the moorings, all except the Argo and no profiles. For evaluation of the OSE simulations, we examined the mean bias, standard deviation difference, root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and anomaly correlation against observations and objective analyses. Without assimilation of in situ observations, both GODAS and ECDA had large mean biases and RMSD in all variables. Assimilation of all in situ data significantly reduced mean biases and RMSD in all variables except zonal current at the equator. For GODAS, the mooring data is critical in constraining temperature in the eastern and northwestern tropical Pacific, while for ECDA both the mooring and Argo data is needed in constraining temperature in the western tropical Pacific. The Argo data is critical in constraining temperature in off-equatorial regions for both GODAS and ECDA. For constraining salinity, sea surface height and surface current analysis, the influence of Argo data was more pronounced. In addition, the salinity data from the TRITON buoys played an important role in constraining salinity in the western Pacific. GODAS was more sensitive to withholding Argo data in off-equatorial regions than ECDA because it relied on local observations to correct model biases and there were few XBT profiles in those regions. The results suggest that multiple ocean data assimilation systems should be used to assess sensitivity of ocean analyses to changes in the distribution of ocean observations to get more robust results that can guide the design of future tropical Pacific observing systems.

Description: In this paper, we are interested to justified two typical hypotheses that appear in the convergence analysis, \(|\lambda |\le 2\) and \(z_0\) sufficient close to \(z^*\) . In order to proof these ideas, the dynamics of a damped two-step Newton-type method for solving nonlinear equations and systems is presented. We present the parameter space for values of the damping factor in the complex plane, focusing our attention in such values for which the fixed points related to the roots are attracting. Moreover, we study the stability of the strange fixed points, showing that there exists attracting cycles and chaotical behavior for some choices of the damping factor.

Description: We consider memelements (memristors and memductors) with special periodic responses (mixed-mode oscillations) and 2D one-period loops yielding constant parameters describing the memelements as single units or components of oscillating circuits. One of the parameters is the action parameter having the dimensions of energy   \(\times \)   time and the SI unit Joule   \(\times \)   second . The remaining loops and parameters correspond to energy of magnetic and electric fields, power and rms current and voltage values. Special mixed one-period loops are also analyzed with pairs of signals associated with two different components of the circuits. The areas enclosed by various loops result in special equations which can be derived from the underlying ODE model of the circuits. The action of a memelement is equivalent to the time integral of the Lagrangian \(L(w,w')\) , where w is the internal state variable of a memelement. The analysis of memristive circuits and their parameters is considered in the framework of mixed-mode oscillations. Also, the unit of action for memelements is proposed to be called Chua ( \(=\) Joule \(\,\times \)   second ) to honor L.O. Chua for his work on memristors and memristive circuits.

Description: In this paper, the binary Bell polynomials are employed to find the bilinear form, bilinear Bäcklund transformation and Lax pair for the (3+1)-dimensional BKP equation. Based on Hirota’s bilinear form and three-wave method, multi-soliton solutions are presented. Furthermore, a new bilinear Bäcklund transformation is constructed via applying a gauge transformation to the Bäcklund transformation in bilinear form.

Description: In this paper, a \((2 + 1)\) -dimensional generalized shallow water wave equation is investigated through bilinear Hirota method. Interestingly, the breather-type and lump-type soliton solutions are obtained. Furthermore, dynamic properties of the soliton waves are revealed by means of the asymptotic analysis. Based on Hirota bilinear method and Riemann theta function, we succeed in constructing quasi-periodic wave solutions with a generalized form. We also display the asymptotic properties of these quasi-periodic wave solutions and point out the relation between the quasi-periodic wave solutions and the soliton solutions.

Description: In this paper, the classical problem and the inverse problem of generalized synchronization for different dimensional chaotic dynamical systems in discrete time are investigated. The generalized synchronization results have been derived using active control method and Lyapunov stability theory. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Description: Recent numerical studies in stratospheric dynamics and its variability as well as climate, have highlighted the need of more observational analyses to improve simulation of the West African monsoon (WAM). In this paper, activity and spectral characteristics of short-scale vertical waves (wavelengths 〈4 km) are analysed in equatorial coastal and tropical lower stratosphere during the WAM. A first detailed description of such waves over West Africa is derived from high-resolution vertical profiles of temperature and horizontal wind obtained during Intensive Observation Period of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) Campaign 2006. Monthly variation of wave energy density is revealed to trace the progression of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over West Africa. Mesoscale inertia gravity-waves structures with vertical and horizontal wavelengths of 1.5–2.5 and 400–1100 km respectively and intrinsic frequencies of 1.1–2.2 f or periods 〈2 days are observed in the tropical LS with intense activity during July and August when the WAM is installed over the tropical West Africa. Over equatorial region, gravity waves with intrinsic frequencies of 1.4–4 f or periods 〈5.2 days, vertical wavelength of 2.1 km and long horizontal wavelengths of 1300 km are intense during the WAM coastal phase. From July to October, gravity waves with intrinsic frequencies of 1.2–3.8 f or periods 〈6 days, vertical wavelength of 2.1 km and horizontal wavelengths of 1650 km are less intense during the WAM Sahelian phase of the WAM, March–June. Unlike potential energy density, kinetic energy density is observed to be a good proxy for the activity of short-scale vertical waves during the WAM because quasi-inertial waves are dominant. Long-term wave activity variation from January 2001 to December 2009, highlights strong year-to-year variation superimposed on convective activity and quasi-biennial oscillation-like variations especially above tropical stations.

Description: Under investigation in this paper is a generalized \((2+1)\) -dimensional Korteweg–de Vries equation, which could describe many nonlinear phenomena in plasma physics. By virtue of the Bell’s polynomials, a straightforward way is presented to succinctly construct its bilinear form, bilinear Bäcklund transformation and Lax pairs. Once the Lax pairs obtained, the important infinite conservation laws of the equation are directly found. Moreover, based on the bilinear formalism, we construct the Riemann theta function periodic wave solutions and soliton solutions. Finally, the relationships between the periodic wave solutions and soliton solutions are strictly established, and the asymptotic behavior of the periodic waves is also presented with detailed proof.

Description: Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT EQ ) and ocean (OHT EQ ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT EQ . Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.

Description: In the present paper, we study regular and chaotic dynamics from planar oscillations of a dumbbell satellite under the influence of the gravity field generated by an oblate body, considering the effect of the zonal harmonic parameter \(J_{2}\) . We theoretically show the existence of chaotic oscillations provided that the eccentricity becomes arbitrarily small, and the parameter \(J_{2}\) is of the same order of magnitude as the eccentricity. This is carried out by applying the so-called Melnikov method. Finally, for arbitrarily chosen values for the parameters involved in such a problem, we study the transition from regular to chaotic oscillations for a dumbbell satellite via the analysis of chaotic maps and Poincaré surfaces of section, respectively.

Description: We obtain some results on transitivity for cyclically permuted direct product maps, that is, maps of the form \(F\left( x_{1},x_{2},\ldots ,x_{n}\right) =\left( f_{\sigma (1)}\left( x_{\sigma (1)}\right) ,f_{\sigma (2)}\left( x_{\sigma (2)}\right) ,\ldots ,f_{\sigma (n)}\left( x_{\sigma (n)}\right) \right) \) , defined from the Cartesian product \(I^n\) onto itself, where \(I=[0,1]\) , \(\sigma \) is a cyclic permutation of \(\{1,2,\ldots ,n\}\) \((n\ge 2)\) and each map \(f_{\sigma (j)}:I\rightarrow I\) is continuous, \(j\in \{1,\ldots ,n\}\) . In particular, we prove that for \(n\ge 3\) the transitivity of F is equivalent to the total transitivity, and if \(n=2\) , we give a splitting result for transitive maps. Moreover, we extend well-known properties of transitivity from interval maps to cyclically permuted direct product maps. To do it, we use the strong link between F and the compositions \(\varphi _j=f_{\sigma (j)}\circ \ldots \circ f_{\sigma ^n(j)},\, j\in \{1,\ldots ,n\}.\)

Description: Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4–8 °C by the end of the century (2081–2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981–2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1–1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5–40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10–150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5–20 % and increase by 5–20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

Description: In this paper, targeted energy transfer from a nonlinear continuous system to a nonlinear energy sink (NES) is investigated. For this purpose, the equation of a nonlinear beam with simply supported ends, on which the NES is attached, is derived using Rayleigh–Ritz method and the Lagrange equation. Then, parameters of the NES are optimized by both sensitivity analysis and particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. Analysis of the energy transfer between the nonlinear beam and the NES is presented, using the complexification-averaging method, too. Attaching an NES to a nonlinear continuous system and using the PSO method to obtain the optimized parameters of the NES is a new development, presented in this work. Also, here, more than one mode of the beam has been considered for analysis of energy transfer between the NES and different modes of the primary system.

Description: In this work we present a pseudo-random Bit Generator via unidimensional multi-modal discrete dynamical systems called k -modal maps. These multi-modal maps are based on the logistic map and are useful to yield pseudo-random sequences with longer period, i.e., in order to attend the problem of periodicity. In addition the pseudo-random sequences generated via multi-modal maps are evaluated with the statistical suite of test from NIST and satisfactory results are obtained when they are used as key stream. Furthermore, we show the impact of using these sequences in a stream cipher resulting in a better encryption quality correlated with the number of modals of the chaotic map. Finally, a statistical security analysis applied to cipher images is given. The proposed algorithm to encrypt is able to resist the chosen-plaintext attack and differential attack because the same set of encryption keys generates a different cipher image every time it is used.

Description: In this paper, we numerically study the effect of ion channel noise on the synchronization of delayed Newman–Watts network of stochastic Hodgkin–Huxley neurons. It is found that time delay can induce synchronization transitions only when channel noise intensity is intermediate, and the synchronization transitions become most obvious when channel noise intensity is optimal. As channel noise intensity is varied, the neurons can also exhibit synchronization transitions, and the phenomenon is enhanced when time delay is tuned at around time delays that can induce synchronization transitions. Moreover, this phenomenon becomes most obvious when the value of coupling strength or the value of network randomness is optimal. These results show that channel noise has a subtle regulation effect on the synchronization of the neuronal network. These findings may find potential implications for the normal and pathological functions in the brain and the information processing and transmission in neural systems.

Description: Using the tool of Turing instability for partial differential equations, we investigate the spatiotemporal distributions for solutions of a predator–prey-type reaction–diffusion model with spatiotemporal delay. The linear stability conditions of Turing instability, which induce bifurcation patterns in this model, are obtained. Moreover, according to these conditions, we numerically calculate the bifurcation diagrams by using time delay and the predator rate as parameters. The effects of two parameters in the different bifurcation diagrams are also demonstrated through numerical computations and lead to some spatiotemporal patterns of this model, which enrich the pattern formation of predator–prey models.

Description: A new two-lane traffic lattice hydrodynamic model is proposed with the consideration of the global average-and-optimal flux difference effect based on the local relative flux two-lane lattice model. First, the influence of the global average-and-optimal flux difference on the stability of traffic flow is investigated through linear stability theory. The results reveal that the unstable region will be shrunk by taking the global average-and-optimal flux difference effect into account. Additionally, by using the reductive perturbation method, the mKdV equation near the critical point is derived and traffic jam transition can be described by its kink–antikink soliton solution. The good agreement between the numerical simulations and the analytical results shows that traffic congestion can be suppressed efficiently by considering the global average-and-optimal flux difference and the local relative flux effects in two-lane traffic system and the local relative flux is more important than the global average-and-optimal flux difference in stabilizing traffic flow.

Description: Under investigation in this paper is a \((2+1)\) -dimensional Korteweg–de Vries-type equation, which can describe the propagation of nonlinear waves such as the shallow-water waves, surface and internal waves. By virtue of the Bell polynomials, symbolic computation and auxiliary independent variable, the bilinear forms, Bäcklund transformations and soliton solutions are obtained. Solitonic propagation and elastic collisions between/among the two- and three-solitons are discussed analytically and graphically. It can be seen that, after each collision, solitonic shapes and amplitudes keep invariant except for some phase shifts, and the smaller-amplitude soliton moves faster and overtakes the larger.

Description: In a previous study Pons et al. (Clim Res 54(3):197–207, 2010 . doi: 10.3354/cr01117g ) reported a significant decreasing trend of snowfall occurrence in the Northern Iberian Peninsula since the mid 70s. The study was based on observations of annual snowfall frequency (measured as the annual number of snowfall days NSD) from a network of 33 stations ranging from 60 to 1350 m. In the present work we analyze the skill of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to reproduce this trend for the period 1961–2000 (using both reanalysis- and historical GCM-driven boundary conditions) and the trend and the associated uncertainty of the regional future projections obtained under the A1B scenario for the first half of the twenty-first century. In particular, we consider the regional simulation dataset from the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project, consisting of thirteen state-of-the-art RCMs run at 25 km resolution over Europe. While ERA40 severely underestimates both the mean NSD and its observed trend (−2.2 days/decade), the corresponding RCM simulations driven by the reanalysis appropriately capture the interannual variability and trends of the observed NSD (trends ranging from −3.4 to −0.7, −2.1 days/decade for the ensemble mean). The results driven by the GCM historical runs are quite variable, with trends ranging from −8.5 to 0.2 days/decade (−1.5 days/decade for the ensemble mean), and the greatest uncertainty by far being associated with the particular GCM used. Finally, the trends for the future 2011–2050 A1B runs are more consistent and significant, ranging in this case from −3.7 to −0.5 days/decade (−2.0 days/decade for the ensemble mean), indicating a future significant decreasing trend. These trends are mainly determined by the increasing temperatures, as indicated by the interannual correlation between temperature and NSD (−0.63 in the observations), which is preserved in both ERA40- and GCM-driven simulations.

Description: The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

Description: Based on the optimal velocity model, a new continuum model considering traffic jerk effect is presented in this paper. Then, the critical condition for the steady traffic flow is deduced. Near the neutral stability line, nonlinear analysis is taken to derive the KdV-Burgers equation for describing the density wave, and one of the solutions is given. Numerical simulation is carried out to study the influence about the traffic jerk effect.

Description: The nonlinear dynamical behavior of the hysteretic rheological device proposed in Carboni et al. (J Eng Mech 2014 ) is investigated. The device can provide nonlinear hysteretic forces to a one-degree-of-freedom (one-dof) mass through suitable assemblies of NiTiNOL and steel wire ropes subject to tension–flexure cycles. The simultaneous occurrence of interwire friction, phase transformations and geometric nonlinearities is the key feature of the obtained material behavior. Frequency-response curves (FRCs) of the system subject to base excitation are obtained numerically via a continuation procedure together with stability analysis and experimentally by carrying out shaking table tests, respectively. The phenomenological identification of the material behaviors through force–displacement cycles, reported in Carboni et al. (J Eng Mech 2014 ), is employed for the computation of the FRCs and the equivalent damping ratios as function of the displacement amplitude. The different restoring forces give rise to whole new families of nonlinear hysteretic oscillators governed by softening, hardening and softening–hardening behaviors depending on the oscillation amplitude.

Description: The modeling of the piezoelectric actuator is very important for the fast and accurate nano-positioning control. However, the complex creep, vibration and hysteresis dynamics make the modeling very difficult. Because there are often model uncertainties in the first-principle model, the model identification from the experimental data is very necessary. Most identification approaches only consider partial dynamics of the creep, vibration and hysteresis. Though they can be combined together after they are individually identified from different experiments, it is difficult to design the completely decoupled experiment. In this study, an incremental Hammerstein-like modeling approach is proposed to identify the creep, vibration and hysteresis dynamics from one experiment. The model is called nonlinear–linear–linear-Hammerstein-like model, where one dynamic nonlinear system is used to model the hysteresis and two dynamic linear systems are used to model the creep and vibration. The creep and vibration are assumed to be decoupled, and there is a known upper bound on the order of the creep model. A two-stage incremental modeling approach is proposed to reduce the modeling complexity, where the slow dynamics of the hysteresis and creep are estimated first and then the residual of this model is used to estimate the fast dynamics of the vibration. In each stage, the model structure and order are determined by a locally regularized orthogonal least-squares-based model term selection algorithm and the parameters are estimated using a regularized least-squares method. The effectiveness of the proposed modeling approach is verified by the simulations and experiments on typical piezoelectric actuators.

Description: In this paper, decadal variability of the Pacific-South America (PSA) mode is examined from year 1871 to 2008 based on the newly developed ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products. The PSA mode, mirroring the Pacific-North America mode in the Northern Hemisphere, emerges as the second EOF mode of 500 mb geopotential height anomalies. The mode displays substantial interannual-decadal variability with distinct timescales between 3–8 and 10–18 years, respectively. The decadal variability of the PSA mode is found to be associated with the coupled ocean–atmosphere interaction over the subtropical South and tropical Pacific. The subduction of the subtropical temperature anomalies in the South Pacific in conjunction with the tropical–subtropical atmospheric teleconnection plays important role in the decadal variability of the PSA mode.

Description: The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model is used to study the “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) problem for El Niño events from the perspective of initial error growth. By conducting perfect model predictability experiments, we obtain two types of initial sea temperature errors, which often exhibit obvious season-dependent evolution and cause a significant SPB when predicting the onset of El Niño events bestriding spring. One type of initial errors possesses a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern with negative anomalies in the central–eastern equatorial Pacific, plus a basin-wide dipolar subsurface temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific and positive anomalies in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The other type consists of an SSTA component with positive anomalies over the southeastern equatorial Pacific, plus a large-scale zonal dipole pattern of the subsurface temperature anomaly with positive anomalies in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific and negative anomalies in the lower layers of the central–western equatorial Pacific. Both exhibit a La Niña-like evolving mode and cause an under-prediction for Niño-3 SSTA of El Niño events. For the former initial error type, the resultant prediction errors grow in a manner similar to the behavior of the growth phase of La Niña; while for the latter initial error type, they experience a process that is similar to El Niño decay and transition to a La Niña growth phase. Both two types of initial errors cause negative prediction errors of Niño-3 SSTA for El Niño events. The prediction errors for Niño-3 SSTA are mainly due to the contribution of initial sea temperature errors in the large-error-related regions in the upper layers of the eastern tropical Pacific and/or in the lower layers of the western tropical Pacific. These regions may represent ‘‘sensitive areas’’ for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions, thereby providing information for target observations to improve the forecasting skill of ENSO.

Description: In this study, the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation variability over the Korean Peninsula is investigated. In contrast to the previously-known positive correlation between them during an El Niño developing summer and winter, we found a considerably significant negative correlation in September between Niño3 Sea Surface Temperature and Korean precipitation during ENSO developing phase. The northerly wind is only seen during El Nino developing phase and is part of the cyclonic flow over the subtropical North Pacific. The cyclonic flow over the subtropical North Pacific is induced by the subtropical diabatic heating, which is a peculiar feature during El Niño developing phase. In addition, it is demonstrated that the negative correlation is partly attributed to the tropical cyclone (TC), particularly during La Niña phase. That is, TC tends to pass through Korean Peninsula more frequently during La Niña years, which leads to more precipitation over the Korean Peninsula.

Description: Explosive cyclones are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems generating severe wind speeds and heavy precipitation primarily in coastal and marine environments. This study presents the first analysis on how explosive cyclones respond to climate change in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere. An objective-feature tracking algorithm is used to identify and track cyclones from 23 CMIP5 climate models for the recent past (1981–1999) and future (2081–2099). Explosive cyclones are projected to shift northwards by about \(2.2^\circ\) latitude on average in the northern Pacific, with fewer and weaker events south of \(45^\circ \hbox {N}\) , and more frequent and stronger events north of this latitude. This shift is correlated with a poleward shift of the jet stream in the inter-model spread ( \(R=0.56\) ). In the Atlantic, the total number of explosive cyclones is projected to decrease by about 17 % when averaging across models, with the largest changes occurring along North America’s East Coast. This reduction is correlated with a decline in the lower-tropospheric Eady growth rate ( \(R=0.51\) ), and is stronger for models with smaller frequency biases ( \(R=-0.65\) ). The same region is also projected to experience a small intensification of explosive cyclones, with larger vorticity values for models that predict stronger increases in the speed of the jet stream ( \(R=0.58\) ). This strengthening of the jet stream is correlated with an enhanced sea surface temperature gradient in the North Atlantic ( \(R=-0.63\) ). The inverse relationship between model bias and projection, and the role of model resolution are discussed.

Description: This paper investigates the problem of harvesting energy from transverse base vibration by a laminated piezoelectric beam. The beam is fixed at one end and subjected to a compressive load at the other end. The electromechanical model is set up, and the corresponding equations are derived by extended Hamilton principle. The simulation is carried out, and the results are obtained. The response under harmonic excitation exhibits that the system experiences period-doubling bifurcation and chaos as frequency varies, and the buckled state can generate more power compared to the unbuckled one. Coherence resonance is proved and can be observed when the system is subjected to Gauss white noise excitation, which can be used to optimize the efficiency of energy harvesting.

Description: In this paper, we present a new scheme for the secured transmission of discrete information based on hyperchaotic discrete dynamics. The system is a modified-Henon hyperchaotic discrete-time oscillator considered as transmitter and a delayed step-by-step observer used as receiver. The transmitter parameters play the role of secret keys of the transmission scheme. To increase the robustness of the secure data transmission against known plain-text attacks, the message to be sent is encrypted by additional secret keys and inserted by inclusion method in the chaotic discrete-time system dynamics. By this way, the parameters used as secret keys cannot be identified with usual techniques. Simulation results are presented to highlight the performances of the proposed method. One of the main contributions of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of discrete realization of a chaotic observer-based secured transmission scheme. Indeed, experimental implementation results using Arduino Uno board validate the proposed approach, since it exhibits good performances of throughput and cost in terms of resources used.

Description: This paper is concerned with the problem of complex function projective synchronization for uncertain networked chaotic complex systems. Based on Lyapunov stability, an adaptive control method is proposed for complex modified projective synchronization, which guarantees that the general drive-response networked chaotic complex systems are synchronized up to a complex scaling function matrix. Moreover, a complex fuzzy logic-based observer is designed to compensate for the model uncertainties and the external disturbances that exist in response networks, without prior information about uncertain factors. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Description: We investigate the spatiotemporal behaviour of a network where the local dynamics at the nodes (sites) is governed by piecewise linear maps. The local maps we consider exhibit the interesting and potentially useful property of robust chaos. We study the coupled system of such maps with varying fraction of random non-local connections, where the random links may be static, or may change over time. While this system is always unsynchronized under regular connections, synchronized chaos emerges when some of the links are rewired randomly. Further, increasing the frequency of link changes and fraction of random links significantly enhances the range of synchronization. Additionally, dynamic random links are also found to suppress unbounded dynamics in parameter regimes where blow-ups occurred under regular coupling.

Description: Chaotic delay systems are abundant in nature and play a significant role in engineering applications and in describing global behaviors of physical systems. This work presents novel first-order chaotic delay systems with the simplest nonlinearities. The exponential, absolute value, and hyperbolic and signum functions, which arise in many systems like electronic circuits, are utilized to generate chaotic delay systems. The practical realization of chaotic delay systems is carried out with all-pass filters and diode-based electronic circuits. Bifurcation diagrams using numerical simulations and experimental results are provided to verify the existence and feasibility of the novel chaotic delay systems. It is expected that the novel chaotic delay systems and the novel electronic implementation circuits will contribute to some practical applications and modeling of physical systems or events in different fields.

Description: We identify the dynamical drivers of systematic changes in persistent quasi-stationary states (regimes) of the Southern Hemisphere troposphere and their secular trends. We apply a purely data-driven approach, whereby a multiscale approximation to nonstationary dynamical processes is achieved through optimal sequences of locally stationary fast vector autoregressive factor processes, to examine a high resolution atmospheric reanalysis over the period encompassing 1958–2013. This approach identifies regimes and their secular trends in terms of the predictability of the flow and is Granger causal. A comprehensive set of diagnostics on both isentropic and isobaric surfaces is employed to examine teleconnections over the full hemisphere and for a set of regional domains. Composite states for the hemisphere obtained from nonstationary nonparametric cluster analysis reveal patterns consistent with a circumglobal wave 3 (polar)–wave 5 (subtropical) pattern, while regional composites reveal the Pacific South American pattern and blocking modes. The respective roles of potential vorticity sources, stationary Rossby waves and baroclinic instability on the dynamics of these circulation modes are shown to be reflected by the seasonal variations of the waveguides, where Rossby wave sources and baroclinic disturbances are largely contained within the waveguides and with little direct evidence of sustained remote tropical influences on persistent synoptic features. Warm surface temperature anomalies are strongly connected with regions of upper level divergence and anticyclonic Rossby wave sources. The persistent states identified reveal significant variability on interannual to decadal time scales with large secular trends identified in all sectors apart from a region close to South America.

Description: Based on the state-dependent Riccati equation (SDRE) technique, in this paper, a suboptimal pinning control scheme is proposed to synchronize linearly coupled complex networks. The Lyapunov direct method is used to analyze the stability of the closed-loop control system, where it leads to a LMI criterion for pinning synchronization. It is shown that the time interval for synchronization of the proposed SDRE controllers is faster comparing with the results in the latest literatures. It is also shown that the minimum required coupling weights for the network synchronization in a finite desired time is decreased when some specified nodes in the network are pinned with the SDRE controllers. Based on the proposed criterion for pinned nodes selection, the network performances for different topological structures are investigated and the results are compared. The results indicate that the coupling weights for network synchronization in finite desired time in random Erdos Reiny networks are minimum when the pinned nodes are selected based on the minimum matching theorem. In small-world and scale-free networks, the minimum required coupling weight for network synchronization in finite desired time decreases when the highest degree nodes are pinned.

Description: In recent years, digital image processing has become commonplace with growing powerful and available image editing software. People without any professional technique can also manipulate and forge digital images easily. One of the most popular manners of digital image forgeries is the copy–move image forgery. Extensive researches in detecting copy–move forgery have made a deal of achievements, but most presented methods based on these researches have been only focus on some simple composite forgeries and not able to detect different types of post-processed forgeries. In this paper, we aim to deal with the post-processed forgery operations and scenarios, mainly geometric distortion. We introduce analytical Fourier–Mellin transform (AFMT) and focus on its discretization. We propose discrete analytical Fourier–Mellin transform (DAFMT). We also pay attention to high performance of DAFMT in detecting the copy–move image forgeries. Due to the AFMT described in polar coordinate, so we need to convert coordinate system from polar to Cartesian coordinates. To be computed conveniently, we define an auxiliary disk template to accomplish this conversion. We devote to the use of our proposed DAFMT in detection of image forgeries. A great deal of researches and experiments show that the proposed DAFMT can effectively resist translation, rotation, scaling, and added Gaussian noise operations. Compared with other relevant up-to-date methods, experiments also prove that DAFMT has made a progress in detecting and identifying the forgery images which are suffered from geometric distortion operations.

Description: The problem of controlling synchrony in bistable networks, which possess coherent and incoherent attractors in a certain range of parameters, is considered. Along with the known Kuramoto-type models, we introduce the bistable networks consisting of all-to-all coupled noisy FitzHugh-Nagumo neurons as well as chaotic Rulkov neurons. We suggest two different algorithms to switch the bistable networks from the stable coherent state to the stable incoherent state. One of them is an act-and-wait control method, which utilizes the mean field measurements and homogeneous time delayed feedback perturbations with the periodically switched on and off feedback gain. We show that this algorithm is efficient for the globally coupled populations. Another algorithm is based on the multisite coordinated reset stimulation. The algorithm is nonfeedback, but it uses inhomogeneous perturbations and is efficient even for the networks with a complex scale-free topology. In addition to the numerical analysis of finite-size networks, the analytical results for the Kuramoto-type models in the thermodynamic limit are presented.

Description: Considering topography conditions, economic factors and driving safety, in real traffic, a road may be built as curved road. Traffic flow on curved road is different from the one on straight road. And it is worth to investigate the influencing mechanism of traffic flow on curved road. In order to investigate traffic flow on curved road analytically, in this paper, an extended one-dimensional lattice hydrodynamic model for traffic flow on curved road is proposed. The stability condition is obtained by the use of linear stability analysis. It is shown that the stability of traffic flow varies with the radian, friction coefficient and curvature radius of curved road. The Burgers, Korteweg–de Vries and modified Korteweg–de Vries equations are derived to describe the nonlinear density waves in the stable, metastable and unstable regions, respectively. The simulations are given to verify the analytical results. The results, which obtained from the theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, show that traffic flow may be affected by the angle going into curved road, the increment of angle, friction coefficient and curvature radius of curved road. And the maximal theoretical flux and velocity of traffic flow are influenced by the above factors as well.

Description: This paper focuses on the adaptive modified hybrid function projective synchronization with complex function transformation matrix (CMHFPS) for different dimensional chaotic (hyperchaotic) systems with complex variables and unknown complex parameters. The chaotic systems are considerably different from those in the existing closely related literature. Moreover, the transformation matrix in this type of chaos synchronization is not a square matrix, and its elements are complex functions. In particular, by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions dependent on complex variables, the adaptive controllers are designed to synchronize different dimensional complex chaos (hyperchaos) with complex parameters in the sense of CMHFPS, and the complex update laws for estimating unknown complex parameters of complex chaotic systems are also given. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the theoretical results.

Description: In this paper, an experimental verification of the vibro-impact capsule model proposed by Liu et al. in (Int. J. Mech. Sci, 66:2–11; 2013a , Int. J. Mech. Sci, 72:39–54; 2013b , Int. J. Non-Linear Mech., 70, 30–46; 2015 ) is presented. The capsule dynamics is investigated experimentally by varying the stiffness of the support spring, and the frequency and the amplitude of excitation. The novel design of the experimental set-up is discussed, and comparisons between the experiments and numerical simulations are presented showing a good agreement. The conducted bifurcation analysis indicates that the behaviour of the system is mainly periodic and that a fine tuning of the control parameters can significantly improve the performance of the system. The main findings provide a better insight into the vibro-impact systems subject to nonlinear friction, and the experimental rig can be used to predict the dynamic behaviour of these systems.

Description: The mean and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), as represented in six ocean reanalysis products, are analyzed over the period 1960–2007. Particular focus is on multi-decadal trends and interannual variability at 26.5°N and 45°N. For four of the six reanalysis products, corresponding reference simulations obtained from the same models and forcing datasets but without the imposition of subsurface data constraints are included for comparison. An emphasis is placed on identifying general characteristics of the reanalysis representation of AMOC relative to their reference simulations without subsurface data constraints. The AMOC as simulated in these two sets are presented in the context of results from the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II) effort, wherein a common interannually varying atmospheric forcing data set was used to force a large and diverse set of global ocean-ice models. Relative to the reference simulations and CORE-II forced model simulations it is shown that (1) the reanalysis products tend to have greater AMOC mean strength and enhanced variance and (2) the reanalysis products are less consistent in their year-to-year AMOC changes. We also find that relative to the reference simulations (but not the CORE-II forced model simulations) the reanalysis products tend to have enhanced multi-decadal trends (from 1975–1995 to 1995–2007) in the mid to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

Description: This study applies WACCM, a stratosphere-resolving model to dissect the stratospheric responses in the northern winter extratropics to the imposed ENSO-related SST anomalies in the tropics. It is found that the anomalously warmer and weaker stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO is basically a balance of the opposite effects between the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific (TPO) and that over the tropical Indian Ocean basin (TIO). Specifically, the ENSO-related SST anomalies over the TIO are to induce an anomalously colder and stronger stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO, which acts to partially cancel out the much stronger warmer and weaker polar vortex response to the SST anomalies over the TPO. Further analysis indicates that, while the SST forcing from the TPO contributes to the anomalously positive Pacific North America (PNA) pattern in the troposphere and the enhancement of the stationary wavenumber (WN)-1 in the stratosphere during warm ENSO, the TIO SST forcing is to induce an anomalously negative PNA and a reduction of both WN-1 and WN-2 in the stratosphere. Diagnosis of E–P flux confirms that, the anomalously upward propagation of stationary waves in the extratropics mainly lies over the western coast of North America during warm ENSO, which is mainly associated with the TPO-induced positive PNA response and is partially suppressed by the effect of the accompanying TIO SST forcing.

Description: The study evaluated for the first time the ability of meteorological models of TIGGE to forecast the main features of the West African monsoon rainfall. Seven numerical models were retained over the 2008–2012 period and compared to satellite rainfall estimates. We focused on the seasonal cycle and in particular on the onset of the rainy season and on the intra-seasonal variability that are both of high importance for agriculture, water management and health sectors. We found that the seasonal latitudinal shift of the ITCZ is rather well predicted in terms of amplitude and timing by the different models although there is a systematic northward drift in the ITCZ latitude from the lead-times 1- to 10-day. Although the onset date of rainfall varies a lot according to the different definition in the literature, we also found good performance of TIGGE forecasts in predicting the onset date of the monsoon. The analysis of intra-seasonal variability revealed that the skill of TIGGE forecasts is decreasing with the lead-time from 1- to 15-day and the performance of the ensemble mean of all models overcomes the one of any individual models. Overall criteria used in this study (intra-seasonal fluctuations, onset and seasonal cycles), the skill of UKMO and ECMWF models is better than any other model. Based on such analysis it is likely than an ensemble mean based only on these two models would be more skillful than the ensemble mean based on the seven models. TIGGE forecasts represent a promising step towards the delivery of useful climate information to end-users of key sectors such as agriculture, water management, health and public safety.

Description: The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different synoptic types by employing a clustering technique, the self-organizing map (SOM), on daily circulation data for the 33-year period from 1979 to 2011. Daily rainfall data are used to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall within the context of the identified synoptic types. The anomalous frequency of occurrence of the different synoptic types for wet and for dry seasons differs significantly within the SOM space, except for austral spring. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types are to a large extent consistent for wet and dry seasons. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types have a notable larger contribution to seasonal rainfall totals during wet seasons than during dry seasons, consistent with a higher frequency of occurrence of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types during wet seasons compared to dry seasons. Dry seasons are characterized by a smaller contribution to seasonal rainfall totals by all the different synoptic types, but with the largest negative anomalies associated with low frequencies of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types. The frequencies of occurrence of specific configurations of ridging high pressure systems, cut-off lows and tropical-temperate troughs associated with rainfall are positively linked to interannual variability of seasonal rainfall. It is also shown that the distribution of synoptic types within the SOM space is linked to the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation, implying some predictability of intraseasonal variability at the seasonal time scale.

Description: In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Description: We examined how coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) simulate changes in the jet stream differently under greenhouse warming, and how this inter-model diversity is related to the simulated Arctic climate changes by analyzing the simulation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Although the jet stream in the multi-model ensemble mean shifts poleward, a considerable diversity exists among the 34 CGCMs. We found that inter-model differences in zonal wind responses, especially in terms of meridional shift of the midlatitude jet, are highly dependent on Arctic surface warming and lower stratospheric cooling. Specifically, the midlatitude jet tends to shift relatively equatorward (poleward) in the models with stronger (weaker) Arctic surface warming, whereas the jet tends to shift relatively poleward (equatorward) in the models with stronger (weaker) Arctic lower stratospheric cooling.

Description: This paper investigates the potential impact of “idealized-but-realistic” land cover degradation on the late twentieth century Sahel drought using a regional climate model (RCM) driven with lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from three different sources, including one re-analysis data and two global climate models (GCMs). The impact of land cover degradation is quantified based on a large number of control-and-experiment pairs of simulations, where the experiment features a degraded land cover relative to the control. Two different approaches of experimental design are tested: in the 1st approach, the RCM land cover degradation experiment shares the same LBCs as the corresponding RCM control, which can be derived from either reanalysis data or a GCM; with the 2nd approach, the LBCs for the RCM control are derived from a GCM control, and the LBCs for the RCM land cover degradation experiment are derived from a corresponding GCM land cover degradation experiment. When the 1st approach is used, results from the RCM driven with the three different sources of LBCs are generally consistent with each other, indicating robustness of the model response against LBCs; when the 2nd approach is used, the RCM results show strong sensitivity to the source of LBCs and the response in the RCM is dominated by the response of the driving GCMs. The spatiotemporal pattern of the precipitation response to land cover degradation as simulated by RCM using the 1st approach closely resembles that of the observed historical changes, while results from the GCMs and the RCM using the 2nd approach bear less similarity to observations. Compared with the 1st approach, the 2nd approach has the advantage of capturing the impact on large scale circulation, but has the disadvantage of being influenced by the GCMs’ internal variability and any potential erroneous response of the driving GCMs to land degradation. The 2nd approach therefore requires a large ensemble to reduce the uncertainties derived from the driving GCMs. All RCM experiments based on the 1st approach produce a predominantly dry signal in West Africa throughout the year, with a dipole pattern found in the peak monsoon season that features a slight increase of precipitation over the Guinea Coast and strong decrease in the north; a similar spatiotemporal distribution is found for temperature changes, with warming (cooling) coinciding with precipitation decrease (increase). The model precipitation changes in West Africa are dominated by evapotranspiration changes in the north and by atmospheric moisture convergence changes in the south; in temperature changes, surface warming due to the decrease of evaporative cooling dominates over the albedo-induced radiative cooling.