ALBERT

Description:    Storm surge models usually do not take into account the explicit effect of wind gusts on the sea surface height. However, as the wind speed enters quadratically into the shallow water equations, short-term fluctuations around the mean value do not average out. We investigate the impact of explicitly added gustiness on storm surge forecasts in the North Sea, using the WAQUA/DCSM model. The sensitivity of the model results to gustiness is tested with Monte Carlo simulations, and these are used to derive a parametrisation of the effect of gustiness on characteristics of storm surges. With the parametrisation and input from the ECMWF model archive, we run hindcasts for a few individual cases and also the 2007–2008 winter storm season. Although the explicit inclusion of gustiness increases the surge levels, it does not help to explain, and hence reduce, the errors in the model results. Moreover, the errors made by ignoring gustiness are small compared to other errors. We conclude that, at present, there is no need to include gustiness explicitly in storm surge calculations for the North Sea. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0112-x Authors R. M. van der Grinten, KNMI, P.O. Box 201, 3731 CJ De Bilt, The Netherlands J. W. de Vries, KNMI, P.O. Box 201, 3731 CJ De Bilt, The Netherlands H. E. de Swart, IMAU, P.O. Box 80.005, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Alpine hazards such as debris flow, floods, snow avalanches, rock falls, and landslides pose a significant threat to local communities. The assessment of the vulnerability of the built environment to these hazards in the context of risk analysis is a topic that is growing in importance due to global environmental change impacts as well as socio-economic changes. Hence, the vulnerability is essential for the development of efficient risk reduction strategies. In this contribution, a methodology for the development of a vulnerability curve as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss is presented. After some modifications, this methodology can also be used for other types of hazards in the future. The curve can be a valuable tool in the hands of local authorities, emergency and disaster planners since it can assist decision making and cost–benefit analysis of structural protection measures by assessing the potential cost of future events. The developed methodology is applied in two villages (Gand and Ennewasser) located in Martell valley, South Tyrol, Italy. In the case study area, buildings and infrastructure suffered significant damages following a debris flow event in August 1987. The event caused extensive damage and was very well documented. The documented data were used to create a vulnerability curve that shows the degree of loss corresponding to different process intensities. The resulting curve can be later used in order to assess the potential economic loss of future events. Although the validation process demonstrated the reliability of the results, a new damage assessment documentation is being recommended and presented. This documentation might improve the quality of the data and the reliability of the curve. The presented research has been developed in the European FP7 project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe). Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0105-9 Authors M. Papathoma-Köhle, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstr. 7, 1010 Vienna, Austria M. Keiler, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland R. Totschnig, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria T. Glade, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstr. 7, 1010 Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The seismic hazard in the Gujarat region has been evaluated. The scenario hazard maps showing the spatial distribution of various parameters like peak ground acceleration, characteristics site frequency and spectral acceleration for different periods have been presented. These parameters have been extracted from the simulated earthquake strong ground motions. The expected damage to buildings from future large earthquakes in Gujarat region has been estimated. It has been observed that the seismic hazard of Kachchh region is more in comparison with Saurashtra and mainland. All the cities of Kachchh can expect peak acceleration in excess of 500 cm/s 2 at surface in case of future large earthquakes from major faults in Kachchh region. The cities of Saurashtra can expect accelerations of less than 200 cm/s 2 at surface. The mainland Gujarat is having the lowest seismic hazard as compared with other two regions of Gujarat. The expected accelerations are less than 50 cm/s 2 at most of the places. The single- and double-story buildings in Kachchh region are at highest risk as they can expect large accelerations corresponding to natural periods of such small structures. Such structures are relatively safe in mainland region. The buildings of 3–4 stories and tall structures that exist mostly in cities of Saurashtra and mainland can expect accelerations in excess of 100 cm/s 2 during a large earthquake in Kachchh region. It has been found that a total of 0.11 million buildings in Rajkot taluka of Saurashtra are vulnerable to total damage. In Kachchh region, 0.37 million buildings are vulnerable. Most vulnerable talukas are Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar, Bhachau, and Mandvi in Kachchh district and Rajkot, Junagadh, Jamnagar, Surendernagar and Porbandar in Saurashtra. In mainland region, buildings in Bharuch taluka are more vulnerable due to proximity to active Narmada-Son geo-fracture. The scenario hazard maps presented in this study for moderate as well as large earthquakes in the region may be used to augment the information available in the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the region. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0117-5 Authors Sumer Chopra, Seismology Division, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Prithvi Bhavan, New Delhi, 110003 India Dinesh Kumar, Department of Geophysics, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, 136119 Haryana, India B. K. Rastogi, Institute of Seismological Research, Raisan, Gandhinagar, 382009 Gujarat, India Pallabee Choudhury, Institute of Seismological Research, Raisan, Gandhinagar, 382009 Gujarat, India R. B. S. Yadav, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Ocean Valley, P. B. No. 21, IDA Jeedimetla P.O., Hyderabad, 500055 Andhara Pradesh, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel’s technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder’s theory and Gutenberg–Richter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8.7–8.9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known “seismic gap” of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77–78 mm/year represents more than 10 m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134 years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude 〉8. Content Type Journal Article Category Original paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0086-8 Authors Virginia Silbergleit, Facultad de Ingeniería, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av. Las Heras 2214, C1127AAR, C.A.B.A, Buenos Aires, Argentina Claudia Prezzi, Dpto. de Cs. Geológicas, FCEyN, IGEBA, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón 2, 1428, C.A.B.A. Buenos Aires, Argentina Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, we study the relationship between atmospheric parameters (i.e., temperature and humidity) and radon data. We use the linear Granger causality in order to observe possible connections, on short and mid time scale periods, between radon time series and meteorological parameters that strongly influence radon emissions. The analysis suggests radon emission is not affected by these atmospheric parameters on short periods, while there is an evidence of Granger causality on mid periods. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-9 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0104-x Authors Alessandro Attanasio, Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Università di L’Aquila, via Vetoio 1, Coppito, 67010 L’Aquila, Italy Maurizio Maravalle, Department of Economics, University of L’Aquila, via G. Falcone 25, 67010 L’Aquila, Italy Giulia Fioravanti, Department of Chemistry, Chemical Engineering and Materials, University of L’Aquila, via Campo di Pile, Pile, 67010 L’Aquila, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Over the last few decades, a lot of attention has been concentrated on the consequences of marine impacts, especially those caused by the tsunami wave train. Internal solitary waves are similar to the surface waves that commonly occur in the waters of the ocean or large lakes and can have significant effects on oceanic mixing, climate change, the movement of submerged plankton, and the weathering of geological structures. This motion can be severe enough to create natural hazards such as submarine tsunamis in the ocean. These could also even occur in large lakes. The present work aims to contribute to this knowledge base by studying internal wave propagation on a shallow continental shelf following a particular marine impact. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted in order to clarify the movement of an interfacial solitary wave across a uniform slope and a horizontal plateau forming a slope-shelf topography. The results obtained from test runs indicate that the wave maintains its strength, having a direct impact on the natural ecology of the local oceanic environment. Comparison with different seabed topographies is also presented to demonstrate the propagation of an internal wave over a trapezoidal barrier. A better fitting and more appropriate model is employed to examine the relationship between the physical parameters for better predicting the evolution of an internal solitary wave as it moves over a trapezoidal obstacle on a horizontal plateau. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0107-7 Authors Chen-Yuan Chen, Department and Graduate School of Computer Science, National Pingtung University of Education, No. 4-18, Ming Shen Rd., Pingtung, 90003 Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The paper deals with the assessment of rockfall risk to persons travelling in vehicles along the SS163 road, an important transportation corridor supporting a high vehicle traffic within the well-known tourist area of the Amalfi Coast (southern Italy). To this aim, the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) procedures, in this latter case for three rockfall risk scenarios, are applied. With reference to a large portion (33.820 out of a total of 50.365 km) of the SS163 road, the obtained QRA results highlight that, although the estimated individual risk to life satisfies the adopted tolerable risk criterion, the computed societal risk cannot be tolerated. Starting from this result, site-specific QRA analyses—carried out with reference to some road sections chosen on the basis of the RHRS results—allow the detection of the SS163 portions where the individual risk to life exceeds the tolerable risk threshold and, then, the recourse to mitigation measures could reveal necessary. In this regard, RHRS and QRA methods can be considered complementary tools in prioritizing the road sections where construction funds can be profitably spent in order to mitigate the rockfall risk with reference to both direct consequences (life loss) and indirect ones (traffic delay and diversions). Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0102-z Authors Settimio Ferlisi, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, via Ponte don Melillo, 84084 Fisciano, SA, Italy Leonardo Cascini, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, via Ponte don Melillo, 84084 Fisciano, SA, Italy Jordi Corominas, Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Jordi Girona 1-3, D-2 Building, 08034 Barcelona, Spain Fabio Matano, via Cimarosa 93, 80127 Napoli, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    An unusual amount of precipitation fell in Panay island during the passage of Typhoon Fengshen (local name: Typhoon Frank) in June 2008. The voluminous amount of rain is attributed to the interaction of the tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon as the latter was enhanced by the former during its passage across central Philippines. Ground and aerial surveys were conducted to document the extensive flooding and landslides that occurred in the island. Artificial damming of rivers followed by breaching resulted to flooding, whereas steep slopes, fractured lithologies and intense precipitation were recognized to have led to the occurrence of landslides. These natural hazards and their causes are presented to contribute to our understanding of how weather systems evolve and what the corresponding effects are on the ground. This, hopefully, can provide significant inputs in improving disaster risk reduction and preparedness programs. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0109-5 Authors Graciano P. Yumul, National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of Science, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines Nathaniel T. Servando, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Department of Science and Technology, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines Leilanie O. Suerte, Mines and Geosciences Bureau Regional Office 6, Iloilo City, Philippines Mae Y. Magarzo, Mines and Geosciences Bureau Regional Office 6, Iloilo City, Philippines Leo V. V. Juguan, Mines and Geosciences Bureau Regional Office 6, Iloilo City, Philippines Carla B. Dimalanta, National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of Science, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study explores the relationship between perception on climate change as well as climatic hazards and socio-demographic characteristics such as age, gender, occupation, exposure to mass media, amount of land, education, and income. Following simple random sampling technique, a total of 384 households were sampled from Rangamati Sadar Upazila of Bangladesh and were interviewed through a predesigned semistructured questionnaire. The findings of the study reveal that a substantial number of respondents (61 %) perceive that climate is changing moderately over the years. The bivariate results indicate that age, gender, education, occupation, income, amount of land, and access to mass media are significantly associated with perception on climate change as well as climatic hazards. In addition, age, education, and exposure to mass media are also found as significant predictors of climate change perception. Education has been found as the single best predictor. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0467-z Authors Md. Nazmul Huda, The Green University of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The GIS-multicriteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) technique is increasingly used for landslide hazard mapping and zonation. It enables the integration of different data layers with different levels of uncertainty. In this study, three different GIS-MCDA methods were applied to landslide susceptibility mapping for the Urmia lake basin in northwest Iran. Nine landslide causal factors were used, whereby parameters were extracted from an associated spatial database. These factors were evaluated, and then, the respective factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the associated factors. The landslide susceptibility maps were produced based on weighted overly techniques including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted average (OWA). An existing inventory of known landslides within the case study area was compared with the resulting susceptibility maps. Respectively, Dempster-Shafer Theory was used to carry out uncertainty analysis of GIS-MCDA results. Result of research indicated the AHP performed best in the landslide susceptibility mapping closely followed by the OWA method while the WLC method delivered significantly poorer results. The resulting figures are generally very high for this area, but it could be proved that the choice of method significantly influences the results. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0463-3 Authors Bakhtiar Feizizadeh, Department of Physical Geography, Centre for Remote Sensing and GIS, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran Thomas Blaschke, Department of Geoinformatics (Z_GIS), University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The failure of the Tous dam in 1982 caused one of the most important socio-natural disasters in Spain during the twentieth century. That event triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed, not only locally, but also at multiple levels of governance. Fifteen interviews with relevant stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, and review of historical and media accounts indicate that the collapse of the Tous dam had the two major effects. First, it prompted a process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organizations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. Second, actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain. This paper also identified the three main stages in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area: (1) After the collapse of the Tous dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives, which emphasized the contextualization of risk and the importance in long-term disaster risk reduction measures such as land-use planning. (3) The European Water Framework Directive (2000) and, more recently, the Floods Directive (2007) are exerting a strong influence on the development of a new Spanish flood policy that focuses on preventive measures. However, this process is far from complete and many issues still remain unresolved: dealing with different domains of risk action, integrating concepts of ecological resilience and climate change, and promoting public awareness and effective participation. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0458-0 Authors Anna Serra-Llobet, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California at Berkeley, 316 Wurster Hall, #1870, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA J. David Tàbara, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Campus UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain David Sauri, Department of Geography, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Campus UAB, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit ( parroquia , parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ∼9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0457-1 Authors Sebastien Biass, Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 13, rue des Maraichers, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland Corine Frischknecht, Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 13, rue des Maraichers, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland Costanza Bonadonna, Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 13, rue des Maraichers, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landfills are mainly located in lowland areas close to settlements inducing flood risk of potential environmental contamination and adverse health effects. During recent flood events, numerous landfill sites were reportedly exposed to inundations, leading to erosion of landfilled material and release of pollutants threatening humans and the environment. Although emissions from landfills under regular operating conditions are well investigated, the behaviour and associated emissions in case of flooding are widely unknown. To enable environmental risk management, flood-prone landfills must be identified to establish priorities for subsequent protection and mitigation measures. This paper presents two flood risk assessment approaches at different spatial scales: a macro-scale assessment approach (MaSA) and a micro-scale assessment approach (MiSA). Both methodologies aim to determine the proportion of landfills endangered by flooding, and evaluate the impacts. The latter are expressed by means of risk categories (minor to serious) of impacts that flooded sites might have on humans and the environment. The evaluation of 1,064 landfills in Austria based on MaSA yields roughly 30 % of landfills located within or close to flood risk zones. Material inventories of 147 sites exposed to flooding are established, and potential emissions during a flood event are estimated. Three representative case study areas are selected and investigated in detail by applying the MiSA approach based on 2D hydrodynamic models to calculate flow depths and shear stress and by developing emission scenarios to validate the macro-scale screening approach (MaSA). The applications of MiSA and MaSA outlines that hazardous emissions due to flooding can lead to significant impacts on the environment. Uncertainty associated with related processes and data sources is considerably high. Nevertheless, both MiSA and MaSA provide a decision support tool to identify landfills with imminent risk for humans and the environment. Therefore, the described methodologies provide toolsets to enable environmental risk reduction by applying a priority-ranked flood risk management. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0459-z Authors C. Neuhold, Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    China is a disaster-prone country, and these disasters have diverse characteristics, a wide scope of distribution, high frequency, and large losses. China has advanced community-based disaster management (CBDM) capacity. Community is the bottom unit of the society, and CBDM is the foundation of the entire society’s disaster management system. A series of domestic major emergency incidents and disasters and international disaster reduction activities have promoted the formation of the CBDM concept, the implementation of capacity building activities, and the improvement of policy and laws. Thus far, the CBDM system has been preliminarily formed in China, and relevant rules and regulations have been promulgated and implemented. Furthermore, disaster reduction activities, such as the construction of the national comprehensive disaster reduction community and national safe community, have been promoted nationwide. As a result, China’s disaster-resistance capacity has largely improved. However, it is only in the initial phase of CBDM implementation, which remains plagued by several challenges and problems, such as the deficiency of community resident participation, management organizations, disaster risk assessment methods, NGO development, and safety culture cultivation. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0471-3 Authors Xi Zhang, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, China Lixin Yi, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, China Dong Zhao, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    To both collect terrain data rapidly and save labor costs, the present study employs high-spatiotemporal-resolution imaging through Formosat-2 and aerial photography through unmanned aerial vehicles. In daily visits to the same area, images taken by Formosat-2 can be employed as data for long-term observation. Unclouded images from 2006 to 2010 processed with a false-color overlay and calculated of the normalized difference vegetation index are selected as terrain data. Aerial photos taken by unmanned aerial vehicles are utilized ground-truth data. These two types of data are analyzed to proceed with supervised classification. The results reveal that in the study area mangroves are the most exuberant in summer. The growth of mangroves in Sihcao Wetland remained in dynamic equilibrium from 2006 to 2010 without any sharp increase or decrease in quantity. This proposed method is believed to be suitable to investigate and preserve mangroves by long-term image monitoring and to avoid any unnatural influence on these conservation areas. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0472-2 Authors C. C. Liu, Department of Earth Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 701 Taiwan Y. Y. Chen, Department of Earth Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 701 Taiwan C. W. Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543 Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Economic losses caused by natural disasters have increased rapidly in recent years. Therefore, learning about natural catastrophe will be helpful for saving life and reducing cost. This study explores the effect of using the interactive electronic book available from Lego Simple Power Machine sets for learning. The applications for Power Machine are wide, such as in robots manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and intelligent devices. Based on the theory of Human–Computer Interaction, user-centered design is a modern and widely practiced design philosophy rooted in the idea that users must take center-stage in the design of any computer system. An interactive electronic book is developed to test learning achievement with the Lego Simple Power Machine set. The results reveal that the attention of users can be improved and the image can also be improved during the interaction and operation process. Finally, this study proves that the interactive electronic book makes learning easier and faster than the traditional book. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0413-0 Authors Bih-Yaw Shih, Department and Graduate School of Computer Science, National Pingtung University of Education, No. 4–18, Ming Shen Rd., Pingtung, 90003 Taiwan, Republic of China Tsung-Hao Chen, Department of Business Administration, Shu-Te University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China Ming-Hung Cheng, Department of Bioenvironmental System Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617 Taiwan, Republic of China Chen-Yuan Chen, Department and Graduate School of Computer Science, National Pingtung University of Education, No. 4–18, Ming Shen Rd., Pingtung, 90003 Taiwan, Republic of China Bo-Wei Chen, Department and Graduate School of Computer Science, National Pingtung University of Education, No. 4–18, Ming Shen Rd., Pingtung, 90003 Taiwan, Republic of China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study looks at 102 typhoons that passed nearby or traversed Taiwan from 1995 to 2011 and their potential association with ordinary earthquakes. The study found an overall association of 63.75 %. Interestingly, prior to the September 21, 1999, M w  = 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, only 4 of 24 typhoons (16.67 %) were potentially associated with the earthquakes. This figure increased substantially after the Chi-Chi earthquake to 78 typhoons being possibly associated with earthquakes (78.21 %). From the results of the chi-square test, both correlations between the typhoons and their possible triggered earthquakes before and after Chi-Chi earthquake have significant difference. The results are discussed in terms of changes in crustal conditions after the Chi-Chi earthquake and potential mechanisms, for example, heavy rainfall and atmospheric pressure causing the ordinary earthquakes. The atmospheric pressure effect predominates over the rainfall effect during the typhoon time period by statistical multivariate approach. However, to test rainfall effect is a non-neglected mechanism; seven small earthquakes without typhoon occurring near a region experiencing heavy rainfall and earthquake activity related to accumulated rainfall values from January 1995 to July 2012 are examined. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-30 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0382-3 Authors Jyh-Woei Lin, Department of Earth Science, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1 University Road, Tainan City, Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    For assessing the social dimension of vulnerability, population exposure mapping is usually considered the essential starting point. Integration of social structure then further differentiates situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. Census data available in heterogeneous spatial reference units are still considered the standard information input for assessing potentially affected people, for example, in case of an emergency. There is a strong demand for population data in homogeneous spatial units that are independent from administrative areas. Raster representations meet this demand but are not yet available for all European countries. In this paper, we present an approach of spatial disaggregation of population data for a European transect referring to current population statistics and anticipated future prospects. Recently published data providing the degree of soil sealing are applied as basic proxy for population density in the spatial disaggregation model. In order to assess future patterns of climate change-related vulnerability, results of a European regional climate model are considered for projecting the situation in the 2030s. “Heat wave frequency” is accounted for as climate variable featuring conditions regarded as especially strenuous for elderly or physically weak persons. Integrated analysis of the population and climate prospects enables identification of hot spots in the European transect examined, that is, regions of particularly demanding projected climatic patterns as well as high population density and case-specific vulnerable structure (elderly people). Integrated and consistent spatial analyses on European scale are essential for decision support in the context of climate change impact mitigation as well as for risk communication and future safety and security considerations. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0324-0 Authors Christoph Aubrecht, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria Klaus Steinnocher, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria Mario Köstl, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria Johann Züger, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria Wolfgang Loibl, AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The objective of analyzing hazard and risk in an area is to utilize the result in selecting appropriate landslide risk reduction strategies. However, this does not happen always, and most often results of the hazard and risk analysis remain at an academic level. The under or non-utilization of results in pre-disaster planning could be due to several reasons, including difficulties in understanding the scientific content/meaning of the models, and lack of information on the practical significance and utility of the models. In this study, an attempt is made to highlight the uses of hazard and risk information in different landslide risk reduction strategies along a transportation corridor in Nilgiri, India. At first, a quantitative analysis of landslide hazard and risk was made. The obtained information was then incorporated in risk reduction options such as land use zoning, engineering solutions, and emergency preparedness. For emergency preparedness, the perception of the local Nilgiri communities toward landslide risk was evaluated and simplified maps were generated for the benefit and understanding of end users. A rainfall threshold-based early warning system was presented, which could be used in risk awareness programs involving public participation. The use of quantitative risk information in the cost-benefit analysis for the planning of structural measures to protect the road and railway alignments was also highlighted, and examples were shown how the transport organizations could implement these measures. Finally, the study provided examples of the utility of hazard and risk information for spatial planning and zoning, indicating areas where the landslide hazard is too high for planning future developments. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-27 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0404-1 Authors Pankaj Jaiswal, Geological Survey of India, Bandlaguda, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India Cees J. van Westen, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Hengelosestraat 99, 7500 AA Enschede, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Every year several million hectares of forest and grassland in China are affected by wildfires. The majority of wildfires occur in the northern part of China, where grasslands and forests are ubiquitous. A critical step toward the protection of life, property, and natural resources from wildfires is the development of a fire danger rating system. This paper presents a new method to assess fire danger that capitalizes on the abundance of environmental data available via remote sensing and applies this new method to the northern part of China. Using an analytical hierarchy process, a fire danger index was developed based on five environmental factors that are known to affect fire frequency and severity, including land surface temperature, vegetation curing, equivalent water thickness, vegetation continuity degree, and fuel weight. Data for these five factors were derived from satellite imagery, instead of point data, allowing for predictions to be made over a large geographic area. Fire danger ratings were then mapped for the region based on the fire danger index. In addition, the accuracy of the fire danger index was evaluated by statistical analyses. The fire danger index was significantly correlated with air temperature and precipitation, suggesting that changes in these two environmental variables will affect the predictions of the index. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0391-2 Authors Litao Wang, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing, Normal University, Beijing, 100101 Peoples Republic of China Yi Zhou, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing, Normal University, Beijing, 100101 Peoples Republic of China Weiqi Zhou, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085 China Shixing Wang, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing, Normal University, Beijing, 100101 Peoples Republic of China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Monthly and inter-annual variation in tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) have been examined over metropolitan cities (New Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai) and hill stations (Mount Abu, Nainital, Srinagar, Kodaikanal, Dalhousie, Gulmarg, Shimla and Munnar) of India during the period 2004–2010 using satellite-based SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY). It is observed that the monthly variation in NO 2 over the metropolitan cities is higher during winter (November–December–January–February) months and lower during summer monsoon (June–July–August–September) months. Lower NO 2 in summer monsoon leads to the presence of deep convection and higher in winter leads to calm winds and more residential time of gases. Moreover, rapid industrialization and traffic growth are also responsible for the higher NO 2 . Mean values of NO 2 over New Delhi and Mumbai as well as hill stations, such as Mount Abu, Nainital and Shimla, have exhibited more pollution. Similarly, maximum NO 2 occurred over the hill stations during pre-monsoon months (April–May) and early part of summer monsoon (June). Higher NO 2 values are observed in November–December months. All the hill stations also show increasing trend of NO 2 during the period 2004–2010. Increasing pollution of NO 2 over the hill stations might also be due to forest fires, biomass burning and long-range transport. Back trajectory analysis shows that the observed peaks in NO 2 are a resultant of the long-range transported component amplified by the local environment. In the northern hill stations, pollution seems transported from west Asian and European countries while in the southern hill stations, pollution is originated from southern Indian Ocean and East Asian countries. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0392-1 Authors G. S. Meena, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008 India S. D. Patil, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008 India M. G. Manoj, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008 India P. C. S. Devara, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0388-x Authors Jerome L. Stein, Professor of Economics, Emeritus, Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Box F, Providence, RI 02912, USA Seth Stein, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    To understand the evolution of a disaster, we propose a Framework for Assessing Crisis in a System Environment (FACSE). FACSE is set in a multi-system environment, containing the human system as well as the various natural and technological systems that interact with people. We take a lifecycle perspective, via which we quantify rhythms of life exhibited in multiple systems, across different scales, at different times. The lifecycle perspective also implies a relative approach in that rhythms of life during time t can be compared against those during t - 1 . We illustrate how rhythms of life in the human system can be measured at different scales. We propose a new concept—the degree of disaster, which is a composite score that encompasses the various measurements of rhythms of life from multiple systems, across different scales. We conclude the paper by discussing the potential offered by FACSE in disaster research as well as the limitations. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0371-6 Authors Cynthia Chen, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA Dave Neal, Department of Political Science, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74074, USA Mengchu Zhou, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    As societies evolve, often the most appropriate response to the hazard must also evolve. However, such shifts in appropriate response to a hazard, whether at the individual or at the societal level, are rarely straightforward: Closing the gap between desired practice and current practice requires effective communication. Although there is a significant literature on how to encourage adaptation before an event and how to communicate during an event, there is less work tying the two together or on how to communicate shifts in larger scale societal response to a natural hazard. In this article, we bring together the best practices and theoretical literature from risk communication and crisis communication and empirical literature on wildfire communication to derive the key characteristics associated with best communication practices. We then use this framework on three case studies of wildfires in California, Montana, and Wyoming, each of which used a different strategy for managing the fire, to understand whether approaching communication more holistically can lead to more desired natural hazard management outcomes. Our working hypothesis was as follows: effective communication before and during a fire would be associated with acceptance of more flexible fire management strategies. The findings indicate how a type of desired management change (more flexible fire management) is associated with more effective communication practices before and during the event. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0386-z Authors Toddi A. Steelman, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 329 Kirk Hall, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, SK S7N SC8, Canada Sarah McCaffrey, US Forest Service Northern Research Station, Evanston, IL, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Debris flow susceptibility assessment is the premise of risk assessment. In this paper, Sichuan Province is chosen as a study area, where debris flow disasters happen frequently. Information value model is applied to calculate the information values of seven environmental factors, namely elevation, slope, aspect, flow accumulation, vegetation coverage, soil type and land-use type. Geographic information system technology is used to analyze the comprehensive information values so as to determine the debris flow susceptibility. The results show that the northeast, the central and the south of Sichuan are the most hazardous regions, which display a zonal distribution feature from the southeast to the south. From the validation results, 7.53 % of the total area suffers from high susceptibility and 19.97 % suffers from very high susceptibility. However, 80 % of the debris flows are concentrated in two regions. The actual occurrence ratios of debris flows of the high-susceptibility and very high-susceptibility areas are 4.95 and 2.14, respectively. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0414-z Authors Wenbo Xu, School of Resources and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731 Sichuan, China Wenjuan Yu, School of Resources and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731 Sichuan, China Shaocai Jing, School of Resources and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731 Sichuan, China Guoping Zhang, Public Weather Service Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081 China Jianxi Huang, College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Discussion of Christine C. Shepard, Vera N. Agostini, Ben Gilmer, Tashya Allen, Jeff Stone, William Brooks and Michael W. Beck. Reply: Evaluating alternative future sea-level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 2012 doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0160-2 Content Type Journal Article Category Comment Pages 1-9 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0268-4 Authors A. Boretti, School of Science, Information Technology and Engineering, University of Ballarat, PO Box 663, Ballarat, VIC 3353, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Response to comment on inundation studies for Nagapattinam region on the east coast of India due to tsunamigenic earthquakes from the Andaman region Content Type Journal Article Category Reply Pages 1-3 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0428-6 Authors Kirti Srivastava, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 500007 India R. Krishna Kumar, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 500007 India M. Swapna, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 500007 India V. Swaroop Rani, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 500007 India V. P. Dimri, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, 500007 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The accurate assessment of drought and its monitoring is highly depending on the selection of appropriate indices. Despite the availability of countless drought indices, due to variability in environmental properties, a single universally drought index has not been presented yet. In this study, a new approach for developing comprehensive agricultural drought index from satellite-derived biophysical parameters is presented. Therefore, the potential of satellite-derived biophysical parameters for improved understanding of the water status of pistachio ( Pistachio vera L.) crop grown in a semiarid area is evaluated. Exploratory factor analysis with principal component extraction method is performed to select the most influential parameters from seven biophysical parameters including surface temperature ( T s ), surface albedo (α), leaf area index (LAI), soil heat flux ( G o ), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and net radiation ( R n ). T s and G o were found as the most effective parameters by this method. However, T s , LAI, α, and SAVI that accounts for 99.6 % of the total variance of seven inputs were selected to model a new biophysical water stress index (BPWSI). The values of BPWSI were stretched independently and compared with the range of actual evapotranspiration estimated through well-known METRIC (mapping evapotranspiration at high resolution with internal calibration) energy balance model. The results showed that BPWSI can be efficiently used for the prediction of the pistachio water status (RMSE of 0.52, 0.31, and 0.48 mm/day on three image dates of April 28, July 17, and August 2, 2010). The study confirmed that crop water status is accounted by several satellite-based biophysical parameters rather than single parameter. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0408-x Authors Mohammad Hossein Mokhtari, Department of Remote Sensing, Faculty of Geo-information and Real Estate, University Technology of Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia Robiah Adnan, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University Technology of Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia Ibrahim Busu, Department of Remote Sensing, Faculty of Geo-information and Real Estate, University Technology of Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Real-time predictions for the JAL severe cyclone formed in November 2010 over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) mesoscale model are presented. The predictions are evaluated with different initial conditions and assimilation of observations. The model is configured with two-way interactive nested domains and with fine resolution of 9 km for the region covering the Bay of Bengal. Simulations are performed with NCEP GFS 0.5° analysis and forecasts for initial/boundary conditions. To examine the impact of initial conditions on the forecasts, eleven real-time numerical experiments are conducted with model integration starting at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 4 Nov, 5 Nov and 00, 06, 12 UTC 6 Nov and all ending at 00 UTC 8 Nov. Results indicated that experiments starting prior to 18 UTC 04 Nov produced faster moving cyclones with higher intensity relative to the IMD estimates. The experiments with initial time at 18 UTC 04 Nov, 00 UTC 05 Nov and with integration length of 78 h and 72 h produced best prediction comparable with IMD estimates of the cyclone track and intensity parameters. To study the impact of observational assimilation on the model predictions FDDA, grid nudging is performed separately using (1) land-based automated weather stations (FDDAAWS), (2) MODIS temperature and humidity profiles (FDDAMODIS), and (3) ASCAT and OCEANSAT wind vectors (FDDAASCAT). These experiments reduced the pre-deepening period of the storm by 12 h and produced an early intensification. While the assimilation of AWS data has shown meagre impact on intensity, the assimilation of scatterometer winds produced an intermittent drop in intensity in the peak stage. The experiments FDDAMODIS and FDDAQSCAT produced minimum error in track and intensity estimates for a 90-h prediction of the storm. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-27 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0364-5 Authors C. V. Srinivas, Radiological Safety Division and Environment Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, 603102 India V. Yesubabu, Computational Atmospheric Sciences Group, Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune, India K. B. R. R. Hariprasad, Radiological Safety Division and Environment Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, 603102 India S. S. V. Ramakrishna, Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatam, 530003 India B. Venkatraman, Radiological Safety Division and Environment Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, 603102 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Introduction to the special volume on Bhuj earthquake Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-3 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0431-y Authors B. K. Rastogi, Institute of Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, 382009 India J. R. Kayal, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032 India T. Harinarayana, Gujarat Energy Research and Management Institute, Gandhinagar, 382007 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Heavy rainfall on February 20, 2010, triggered numerous shallow rapid landslides across Madeira Island, a Portuguese archipelago in the North Atlantic. Two days after the extreme rainfall event, a field campaign was started which involved describing and mapping a variety of landslide types and the related losses at 120 different locations throughout the Island. Most of the failures started as debris slides or avalanches at high elevations and transformed into debris flows which rushed downslope into populated coastal areas. Over half of the mapped landslides were located in the central and southern area of the island. A further 1,257 landslide locations were revealed in these areas using remote sensing data which were then assembled in a spatial database. Due to anthropogenic influences caused by urban development and population expansion, the event demonstrated the increased vulnerability of the island’s infrastructure. In order to mitigate future losses, it is important to quantify the typical preparatory factors which contribute to rainfall-induced landslides. This increases our understanding of the hazards and associated risks. The analysis shows that based on their spatial frequency, distribution and in the context of the drainage system, three main factors contribute to the triggering of the landslides due to the heavy rainfall event in February 2010: the characteristic soil type, the land cover and the slope gradient. It can now be recognized that the distribution of landslides is highly dependent on the temporal and spatial distribution of these factors. Furthermore, the anthropogenic impact on the extent of the hazard becomes obvious due to poor settlement planning and drainage system modification. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0387-y Authors Hieu T. Nguyen, Department of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, RWTH Aachen University, Lochnerstraße 4-20, 52064 Aachen, Germany Thomas Wiatr, Institute of Neotectonics and Natural Hazards, RWTH Aachen University, Lochnerstraße 4-20, 52064 Aachen, Germany Tómas M. Fernández-Steeger, Department of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, RWTH Aachen University, Lochnerstraße 4-20, 52064 Aachen, Germany Klaus Reicherter, Institute of Neotectonics and Natural Hazards, RWTH Aachen University, Lochnerstraße 4-20, 52064 Aachen, Germany Domingos M. M. Rodrigues, CGUP, University of Madeira, Funchal, Portugal Rafig Azzam, Department of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, RWTH Aachen University, Lochnerstraße 4-20, 52064 Aachen, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Garhwal Himalayas are seismically very active and simultaneously suffering from landslide hazards. Landslides are one of the most frequent natural hazards in Himalayas causing damages worth more than one billion US$ and around 200 deaths every year. Thus, it is of paramount importance to identify the landslide causative factors to study them carefully and rank them as per their influence on the occurrence of landslides. The difference image of GIS-derived landslide susceptibility zonation maps prepared for pre- and post-Chamoli earthquake shows the effect of seismic shaking on the occurrence of landslides in the Garhwal Himalaya. An attempt has been made to incorporate seismic shaking parameters in terms of peak ground acceleration with other static landslide causative factors to produce landslide susceptibility zonation map in geographic information system environment. In this paper, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to calculate peak ground acceleration values at different time periods for estimating seismic shaking conditions in the study area. Further, these values are used as one of the causative factors of landslides in the study area and it is observed that it refines the preparation of landslide susceptibility zonation map in seismically active areas like Garhwal Himalayas. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-27 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0390-3 Authors Naveen Pareek, National Technical Research Organization, Government of India, New Delhi, 110091 India Mukat L. Sharma, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, 247667 Uttarakhand, India Manoj K. Arora, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, 247667 Uttarakhand, India Shilpa Pal, School of Engineering, Gautam Budha University, Greater Noida, 201308 Uttar Pradesh, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Questionable frequent occurrence of urban flood hazards in modern cities of China Content Type Journal Article Category Short Communication Pages 1-2 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0397-9 Authors Zhaopei Zheng, College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, No. 88 Wenhua East Road, Jinan, 250014 Shandong, People’s Republic of China Shanzhong Qi, College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, No. 88 Wenhua East Road, Jinan, 250014 Shandong, People’s Republic of China Yuetong Xu, College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, No. 88 Wenhua East Road, Jinan, 250014 Shandong, People’s Republic of China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The paper presents the sea level rises (SLR) computed for the United States tide gauges with more than 100 years of recording. It is shown that the monthly sea levels oscillate about an almost linear longer-term trend with important multidecadal periodicities. The SLR time history is computed by linear fitting of 20, 30 and 60 years of data up to a given time (SLR 20 , SLR 30 and SLR 60 ) and is compared to the value obtained by considering all the data. It is shown that SLR 60 has smaller oscillations, while SLR 20 and SLR 30 have much larger and frequent fluctuations. While SLR 60 may oscillate ±10–30 % about the latest longer-term value, SLR 30 may fluctuate ±50–100 % and SLR 20  ± 100–200 %. The values obtained by considering all the data with a minimum of 60 years (SLR A ) also fluctuate ±5–15 % about the latest longer-term value. This indicates the need to use the time history of SLR 60 or SLR A when the record is longer than 60 years to assess the accelerating trend. For all the stations, the sea levels regularly oscillate about the linear longer-term trend, and if acceleration has to be computed, this is eventually negative, that is, the SLR is reducing. Content Type Journal Article Category Short Communication Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0400-5 Authors Albert Parker, Centre for Environmental Management, University of Ballarat, PO BOX 663, Ballarat, VIC, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    As natural and man-made disasters have been increasing, interest in preventing crises and/or mitigating the associated consequences has been growing as well. When dealing with predictable disasters, there is a limited time for effective response, and people should be evacuated in a short time to minimize the fatalities. In such extraordinary situations, attention should be given to making better use of existing infrastructure. The aim of this study is to present a model for optimizing street directions in order to increase the outbound capacity of the network. However, because of the magnitude of the problem, an optimal solution cannot be reached through ordinary methods. Hence, the simulated annealing algorithm, which is a meta-heuristic technique, is used. Computational results on a case study demonstrate that this technique yields considerable improvement in the objective function of the problem which is total travel time of road network users. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0359-2 Authors Shahriar Afandizadeh, Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Narmak, 1684613114 Tehran, Iran Arash Jahangiri, Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Narmak, 1684613114 Tehran, Iran Navid Kalantari, Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Narmak, 1684613114 Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Iran is a seismic prone country and has been host to a long series of devastating earthquakes which have resulted in heavy casualties and damages. In order to assess social vulnerability (SV) to earthquake hazards, this paper presents the development of a hybrid factor analysis and analytic network process model for aggregating vulnerability indicators into a composite index of SV to earthquake hazards. The proposed model is then applied in Iran as a case study. The proposed model uses factor analysis (FA) to extract the underlying dimensions of SV. The identified dimensions of SV and their primary variables are then entered into a network model in Analytic Network Process (ANP). The ANP is used to calculate the relative importance of different SV variables, taking into consideration the results obtained from FA and the possible interdependence between variables of the individual dimensions of SV. These weights are then used to compute the factor scores for the individual dimensions of SV and also the composite social vulnerability index (SOVI). The application of the proposed model to a real world case study and its validation show that it is a robust approach for constructing a composite SOVI. Its application to counties in Iran indicates that there exist severe regional differences in terms of SV to earthquake hazards. The pronounced regional variations in SV warrant special attention by both local authorities and the national government to reconsider current natural disaster management strategies. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-29 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0412-1 Authors Esfandiar Zebardast, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The long-term large hydraulic head in flood season is the main cause of suffusion failure or dam break, while the suffusion failure mechanism in this case has not been specially studied. First, a newly designed hydro-mechanical coupling suffusion apparatus was introduced. Second, two short-term suffusion experiments under different confining pressures were carried out to determine the suitable large hydraulic heads. Finally, four experiments on suffusion under long-term large hydraulic heads and different confining pressures were performed to investigate the influences of the long-term large hydraulic heads and the confining pressures on the evolution of suffusion. The results indicate that: (1) The signs of suffusion failure in the short-term experiments are the sudden decrease in hydraulic gradient and the sharp increase in eroded mass. While the flow rate in the long-term experiments appearing suffusion failures increases rapidly with the decrease in hydraulic gradient. (2) The suffusion failure in the long-term large hydraulic head experiment is more likely to happen and much more serious than that in the short-term experiment. The long-term large hydraulic head can reduce the suffusion failure hydraulic gradient significantly and increase the eroded mass dramatically. The results gained here provide a deeper understanding on the suffusion failure caused by the rapid increase in the high water level upstream the hydraulic earth structures in flood season. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0415-y Authors Yu-long Luo, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Liang Qiao, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Xing-xing Liu, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Mei-li Zhan, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Jin-chang Sheng, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Kolumbo submarine volcano, located NE of Santorini caldera in the Aegean Sea, has only had one recorded eruption during historic times (1650 AD). Tsunamis from this event severely impacted the east coast of Santorini with extensive flooding and loss of buildings. Recent seismic studies in the area indicate a highly active region beneath Kolumbo suggesting the potential for future eruptive activity. Multibeam mapping and remotely operated vehicle explorations of Kolumbo have led to new insights into the eruptive processes of the 1650 AD eruption and improved assessments of the mechanisms by which tsunamis were generated and how they may be produced in future events. Principal mechanisms for tsunami generation at Kolumbo include shallow submarine explosions, entrance of pyroclastic flows into the sea, collapse of rapidly accumulated pyroclastic material, and intense eruption-related seismicity that may trigger submarine slope collapse. Compared with Santorini, the magnitude of explosive eruptions from Kolumbo is likely to be much smaller but the proximity of the volcano to the eastern coast of Santorini presents significant risks even for lower magnitude events. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0405-0 Authors P. Nomikou, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, Athens, Greece S. Carey, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, USA K. L. C. Bell, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, USA D. Papanikolaou, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, Athens, Greece K. Bejelou, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, Athens, Greece K. Cantner, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, USA D. Sakellariou, Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavyssos, Greece I. Perros, Pedagogical Department of Primary Education, University of Athens, Athens, Greece Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    On the morning of January 4, 2010, a massive landslide swept the Attabad and Sarat villages into the Hunza River. The debris from the landslide blocked the low-lying river, creating a barrier lake in the area and poses a major threat to the villages located downstream. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the environmental advantages and disadvantages created by the formation of the artificial lake. For this purpose, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to create the contours and triangulated irregular network (TIN) of the region. Data from ‘Google Earth’ image on March 19, 2010 were used as the reference and to determine the river bed elevation of the study area. Landsat satellite data of Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensor on January 10, March 15, April 24 and May 2, 2010, were used for constructing the Geographic Information System (GIS) layers of the river banks, land use area, overbank flow area and water area estimation. Our results show that the area covered by the water in the lake has increased from 1.28 km 2 on January 10, 2010 to 6.25 km 2 on May 2, 2010. The total upstream urban area affected by the river blockage is 13.99 km 2 . We also applied the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model to estimate the potential catastrophes due to dam burst for different peak outflow scenarios with conclusions and recommendations. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0361-8 Authors Mohsin Jamil Butt, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Muhammad Umar, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan Raheel Qamar, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The knowledge of the climatic behavior especially that one of semi-arid regions is required to optimize the management of water resources. Here climate variability is directly related to water resources that are of a high socio-economic and environmental significance. This work deals mainly with a statistical analysis of the precipitation regime to assess its spatial distribution and temporal variation in north-western Algeria. For this, a time series and a principal component analysis are performed on rainfall series representing annual precipitations of twenty-one meteorological stations for the period 1914 to 2004, the most complete and longest of West Algeria, in order to detect patterns and trends in the region. A spectral analysis of the time series revealed the existence of a period of roughly 30 years for all stations. Furthermore, the trend of a wide part of the obtained spectra suggests the existence of another period longer than the samples size. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0411-2 Authors Leila Hamlaoui-Moulai, LEGHYD Laboratory, Civil Engineering Faculty, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediène, BP 32, 16311 Bab Ezzouar, Algiers Mohammed Mesbah, LGBO Laboratory, Earth Sciences Faculty, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediène, BP 32, 16311 Bab Ezzouar, Algiers Doudja Souag-Gamane, LEGHYD Laboratory, Civil Engineering Faculty, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediène, BP 32, 16311 Bab Ezzouar, Algiers Abderrahmane Medjerab, LGAT Laboratory, Earth Sciences Faculty, University of Science and Technology Houari Boumediène, BP 32, 16311 Bab Ezzouar, Algiers Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The evaluation of error or uncertainty in shoreline change studies is an issue of prime importance for providing an adequate framework for calculated rates of change and to allow the establishment of threshold values above which the rates would be significant. In this note, a practical, easy-to-use method is presented to estimate error involved in the calculation of shoreline changes on aerial photographs, including the three most used types of shoreline indicators: high water line, dune/cliff toe and cliff top. This approach takes into account the specific characteristics of each shoreline proxy, such as relief in the case of the cliff top or tidal oscillations in the case of the high water line. At the same time it includes the error components that are independent from the proxy, basically related to the technical aspects of the process such as photo scanning and georeferencing. A practical example of application of the method is provided for several types of data inputs, based on shoreline changes around the Bay of Cádiz (SW Spain). Content Type Journal Article Category Short Communication Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0407-y Authors Laura Del Río, Earth Sciences Department, CASEM, University of Cádiz, Av. República Saharaui s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain F. Javier Gracia, Earth Sciences Department, CASEM, University of Cádiz, Av. República Saharaui s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. Recently, losses from environmental hazards have escalated, which has resulted in a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. This study focuses on natural disaster management in which the direct risks are posed by the natural disasters themselves. This paper presents a review of issues surrounding natural disaster risk control and insurance in Taiwan. It proposes the use of background information concerning risk control strategies as well as earthquake, typhoon, and flood insurance in Taiwan. Finally, an insurance case study is utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0363-6 Authors Cheng-Wu Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543 Taiwan, ROC Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Department of Safety, Health and Environmental Engineering, Ming Chi University of Technology, New Taipei City, 24301 Taiwan, ROC Meng-Lung Lin, Department of Tourism, Aletheia University, New Taipei City, 25103 Taiwan, ROC Chun-Pin Tseng, Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Armaments Bureau, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0421-0 Authors Birte Frommer, INFRASTRUKTUR & UMWELT, Professor Böhm und Partner, Darmstadt, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. In this paper, we present a novel framework for exploiting multi-resolution dual cameras, including a wide-angle camera and a speed dome camera, to construct a wide-angle, multi-layered, high-resolution visual monitoring system for hazard assessment. Our two-part camera system requires calibration of the correspondence between the detailed and overview image captured by the speed dome camera and wide-angle fixed camera, respectively. In-factory calibration is carried out using white–black patterns for speed dome turning and multi-layered calibration. The results are displayed as wide-angle, multi-layered, high-resolution images which are built up by the speed dome camera. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0409-9 Authors Chi-Wei Lin, Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC Yi-Ping Hung, Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC Wen-Ko Hsu, Research Center for Hazard Mitigation and Prevention, National Central University, Jhung-li, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC Wei-Ling Chiang, Department of Civil Engineering, National Central University, Jhung-li, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC Cheng-Wu Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This work proposes an approach to evaluate the landslide risk from observed data by means of synchronization effects of nonlinear motions, forming a judgment on the linkage between two physical phenomena, slope failure and synchronization motion. Phase synchronization of spatial motion is an essential prerequisite for the landslide occurrence, and the connection between phase synchronization behaviors associated with the triggering factor at different points, as a definite mark, constitutes the sufficient criterion to forecast the coming of the landslide risk. Both of them can be obtained through phase synchronization analysis based on the method of empirical mode decomposition, Hilbert transform and order parameter description of phase synchronization. Direct action of the triggering factor can cause a generalized synchronization behavior, and otherwise the connection between different synchronization behaviors must be searched from three movement patterns as follows: damage spread up the slope, damage spread down the slope and damage spread up and down the slope. The first one shows orderly appearing of the peak phase values at different points up the slope, the second has a connection that the phase lock values vary in the same rhythm for a longer time period, and the last is the combination of the first two cases. Investigations of Vaiont landslide occurred on October 9, 1963, in Italy, and Xintan landslide occurred on June 12, 1985, in China, examined the effectiveness of the proposed approach, and also, as examples, provided a possible principle and effective measures to put it into practice for the early warning of landslide. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0385-0 Authors Da-Chao Lin, Department of Civil Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 206, Yanjiao, Beijing, 101601 China Jing-Luo Cai, Department of Civil Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 206, Yanjiao, Beijing, 101601 China Zhang-Lin Guo, Department of Civil Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 206, Yanjiao, Beijing, 101601 China Fan-Lei Zeng, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China Feng-Ping An, Department of Civil Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 206, Yanjiao, Beijing, 101601 China Hai-Bo Liu, Department of Civil Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 206, Yanjiao, Beijing, 101601 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Many areas of the world are prone to several natural hazards, and effective risk reduction is only possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. However, in contrast to single-hazard analyses, the examination of multiple hazards poses a range of additional challenges due to the differing characteristics of processes. This refers to the assessment of the hazard level, as well as to the vulnerability toward distinct processes, and to the arising risk level. As comparability of the single-hazard results is strongly needed, an equivalent approach has to be chosen that allows to estimate the overall hazard and consequent risk level as well as to rank threats. In addition, the visualization of a range of natural hazards or risks is a challenging task since the high quantity of information has to be depicted in a way that allows for easy and clear interpretation. The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties. Content Type Journal Article Category Review Article Pages 1-34 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2 Authors Melanie S. Kappes, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Margreth Keiler, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Kirsten von Elverfeldt, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Thomas Glade, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary components: (1) wildfire hazard, which we characterize with burn probability, fireline intensity, and a composite index, and (2) geospatial intersection of watershed polygons with spatially resolved wildfire hazard metrics. This effort enhances investigation into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior and enables quantitative comparisons of exposure across watersheds on the basis of a novel, integrated measure of wildfire hazard. As a case study, we consider the municipal watersheds located on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest (BDNF) in Montana, United States. We present simulation results to highlight exposure across watersheds and generally demonstrate vast differences in fire likelihood, fire behavior, and expected area burned among the analyzed municipal watersheds. We describe how this information can be incorporated into risk-based strategic fuels management planning and across the broader wildfire management spectrum. To conclude, we discuss strengths and limitations of our approach and offer potential future expansions. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0265-7 Authors Joe Scott, Pyrologix LLC, Missoula, MT 59801, USA Don Helmbrecht, TEAMS Enterprise Unit, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT 59807, USA Matthew P. Thompson, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT 59807, USA David E. Calkin, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT 59807, USA Kate Marcille, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Inundation caused by landslide dams may occur in the upstream and downstream of the dams. A proper flooding hazard assessment is required for reaction planning and decision-making to mitigate possible flooding hazards caused by landslide dams. Both quick and detailed procedures can be used to evaluate inundation hazards, depending on the available time and information. This paper presents a systematic approach for the assessment of inundation hazards and risks caused by landslide dam formation and breaches. The approach includes the evaluation of dam-breach probability, assessment of upstream inundation hazard, assessment of downstream inundation hazard, and the classification of flooding risk. The proposed assessment of upstream inundation estimates the potential region of inundation and predicts the overtopping time. The risk level of downstream flooding is evaluated using a joint consideration of the breach probability of a landslide dam and the level of flooding hazard, which is classified using a flooding hazard index that indicates the risk of potential inundation. This paper proposes both quick and detailed procedures for the assessments of inundation in both the upstream and downstream of a landslide dam. An example of a landslide dam case study in southern Taiwan was used to demonstrate the applicability of the systematic approach. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0344-9 Authors Sheng-Hsueh Yang, Disaster Prevention and Water Environment Research Center, National Chiao Tung University, 1001, University Road, Hsinchu, 30010 Taiwan Yii-Wen Pan, Department of Civil Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, 1001, University Road, Hsinchu, 30010 Taiwan Jia-Jyun Dong, Graduate Institute of Applied Geology, National Central University, 300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli, Taoyuan, 32001 Taiwan Keh-Chia Yeh, Department of Civil Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, 1001, University Road, Hsinchu, 30010 Taiwan Jyh-Jong Liao, Department of Civil Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, 1001, University Road, Hsinchu, 30010 Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The coastal regions of India are profoundly affected by tropical cyclones during both pre- and post-monsoon seasons with enormous loss of life and property leading to natural disasters. The endeavour of the present study is to forecast the intensity of the tropical cyclones that prevail over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean (NIO). A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and compared the forecast through MLP model with other neural network and statistical models to assess the forecast skill and performances of MLP model. The central pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speed, pressure drop, total ozone column and sea surface temperature are taken to form the input matrix of the models. The target output is the intensity of the tropical cyclones as per the T —number. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model is minimum (4.70 %) whereas the forecast error with radial basis function network (RBFN) is observed to be 14.62 %. The prediction with statistical multiple linear regression and ordinary linear regression are observed to be 9.15 and 9.8 %, respectively. The models provide the forecast beyond 72 h taking care of the change in intensity at every 3-h interval. The performance of MLP model is tested for severe and very severe cyclonic storms like Mala (2006), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Aila (2009), Laila (2010) and Phet (2010). The forecast errors with MLP model for the said cyclones are also observed to be considerably less. Thus, MLP model in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones over NIOs may thus be considered to be an alternative of the conventional operational forecast models. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0346-7 Authors Sutapa Chaudhuri, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Calcutta, 51/2, Hazra Road, Kolkata, 700019 India Debashree Dutta, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Calcutta, 51/2, Hazra Road, Kolkata, 700019 India Sayantika Goswami, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Calcutta, 51/2, Hazra Road, Kolkata, 700019 India Anirban Middey, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Calcutta, 51/2, Hazra Road, Kolkata, 700019 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    An understanding of vulnerability is not only crucial for the survival of the exposed communities to extreme events, but also for their adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability affects community participation in hazard mitigation, influences emergency response and governs adaptive capacity for the changing environmental and hazards characteristics. However, despite increased awareness, assessments and understanding of the processes that produce vulnerability, disaster risks prevail. This raises questions on the effectiveness of vulnerability assessments and their applications for hazard mitigation and adaptation. The literature includes a range of vulnerability assessment methods, wherein frequently the selection of any particular method is governed by the research objectives. On the other hand, hazard mitigation plans and policies even though mention vulnerability, their implementation pays less attention to the variations in its nature and underlying causes. This paper explores possible reasons for such gaps by exploring a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. It brings out the limitations of different vulnerability assessment methods in representing the local vulnerability and challenges they bring in planning for the vulnerability reduction. It argues that vulnerability assessment based on any particular method, such as deprivation index, principle component analysis, composite vulnerability index with or without weight, may not reveal the actual vulnerability of a place, and therefore, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is needed. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0327-x Authors Shabana Khan, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The Tangjiashan landslide dam was formed during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and posed high risks to 1.2 million people downstream the dam. A human risk analysis model (HURAM) reported in the companion paper is applied to evaluate the human risk in the Tangjiashan landslide dam failure. The characteristics of this landslide dam are introduced first. The breaching parameters in two cases (i.e., the actual case and a high erodibility case) are predicted with a physically based model, and the flood routing processes in these two cases are simulated using numerical analysis. The population at risk downstream of the landslide dam is then obtained based on the results of the flood routing simulations. Subsequently, the human risks are analyzed with HURAM using Bayesian networks. Fourteen influence parameters and their interrelationships are considered in a systematic structure in the case study. A change in anyone of them may affect the other parameters and leads to loss of life. HURAM allows not only cause-to-result inference, but also result-to-cause inference by updating the Bayesian network with specific information from the study case. The uncertainties of the parameters and their relationships are studied both at the global level using multiple sources of information and at the local level by updating the prior probabilities. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0336-9 Authors M. Peng, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong L. M. Zhang, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Influenced by cold waves and low salinity of sea water, sea ice disasters occurred to Laizhou Bay frequently. The sea ice can be classified into five grades. Usually, sea ices of grade 3–5 will have more or less impacts on beach shellfishes, mariculture and navigation. There was sea ice of grade 3 in normal winters, and there was sea ice of grade 4–5 in cold winters. In the twentieth century, sea ice of grade 4 or 5 occurred five times in Laizhou Bay. During the years from 2000 to 2012, sea ice of grade 1 or 1.5 occurred twice, sea ice of grade 2 or 2.5, four times, that of grade 3 or 3.5, four times, and that of grade 4, twice. Among which, the sea ice disasters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 led to great damages and inflicted inferior impact on navigation, mariculture and marine organisms. To reduce the economic loss of sea ice disasters and their ecological influences, the authors put forward the countermeasures to sea ice disasters, which include strengthening the research of monitoring and forecasting of sea ice disasters, managing strictly the mariculture, establishing emergent recovery projects of sea ice disasters, constructing emergent recovery systems of sea ice and perfecting them continually. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0340-0 Authors Xu-Liang Zhang, Department of Geography, Normal College, Qingdao University, NO. 308 Ningxia Road, Qingdao, 266071 China Zhao-Hui Zhang, The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, NO.6 Xianxialing Road, Qingdao, 266061 China Zong-Jun Xu, The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, NO.6 Xianxialing Road, Qingdao, 266061 China Ge Li, North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, NO.22 Fushun Road, Qingdao, 266033 China Qing Sun, North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, NO.22 Fushun Road, Qingdao, 266033 China Xue-Jing Hou, School of Ocean Sciences, China University of Geosciences, NO.22 Xueyuan Road, Beijing, 10083 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landslides represent a major threat to human life, property and the environment. Landslide hazard and risk assessments seek to inform the policy and practice of landslide hazard risk management, for example, by identifying high-risk areas so that appropriate policy and private actions could be taken in terms of preventive and mitigative measures. We examine whether a decentralized risk assessment system leads to better assessment outcomes compared to a centralized risk assessment system. The paper is based on a comparative study of two countries—India and Italy—and their responses to landslide risk. Our results indicate a causal relationship between decentralization and three outcomes. First, decentralization appears to be conducive to the more rapid and more complete assessment of risks in local places, through mapping at an appropriate scale. Second, decentralization appears to foster greater and more transparent communication of risk assessment products, such as maps. Third, decentralization appears to lead to a more open, and at times contentious, public discourse over how to interpret and respond to the information contained in the risk assessments and maps. However, in practice, decentralization faces serious institutional resistance. Our analysis does not preclude other risk assessment outcomes or competing explanations for differences in risk assessment and management outcomes. Rather, it provides an understanding of the direction in which the institutional change may be driven for bringing about more effective risk assessments and their use. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0300-8 Authors Upasna Sharma, Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria Anna Scolobig, Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria Anthony Patt, Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    China suffers frequent and severe floods. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood vulnerability assessment. This paper develops assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability based on the data envelopment analysis method and identifies multidimensional flood vulnerability—population, death, agriculture and economy—at the provincial scale in China using flood damage data and socioeconomic statistical data from 2001 to 2010. Based on the characteristics of multidimensional flood vulnerability of each province, some suggestions for flood prevention and mitigation are suggested. The assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability are simple and can be used for vulnerability analysis of natural disaster at regional or national levels. The assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability can provide multifaceted information that contributes to a deeper understanding of the flood vulnerability and provides a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0323-1 Authors Dapeng Huang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081 China Renhe Zhang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081 China Zhiguo Huo, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081 China Fei Mao, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081 China Youhao E, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081 China Wei Zheng, National Satellite Meteorological Center, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Mosquito Creek drains a 15.5 km 2 watershed on the North Shore Mountains north of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, and flows through the densely urbanized District and then City of North Vancouver. Previous studies determined that the creek is subject to debris floods (hyperconcentrated flows). The National Research Council of Canada is applying multi-hazard risk assessment procedures for various regions in B.C. and chose Mosquito Creek as one of its target areas. As part of its natural hazard management plan, the District of North Vancouver (DNV) requested an assessment of debris flood hazards and associated risk to life. Using a combination of empirical methods, dendrochronology and some judgment, BGC Engineering Inc. assessed debris flood hazard extent, velocity and depth for estimated 100-, 200-, 500- and 2,500-year debris flow return periods. Based on the results from the hazard assessment, risk for individuals and groups living within the hazard area, including residential homes and a fire hall, was estimated. Compared to risk tolerance criteria accepted on an interim basis by the DNV, we estimate that societal risk exceeds tolerable standards and that individual risk exceeds tolerable standards for 10 homes. The results from the risk to loss of life study have prompted DNV to implement a series of risk reduction measures including installation of a debris containment net and watershed restoration measures. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-29 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0436-6 Authors Matthias Jakob, BGC Engineering Inc., 1045 Howe Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada Kris Holm, BGC Engineering Inc., 1045 Howe Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada Hamish Weatherly, BGC Engineering Inc., 1045 Howe Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada Shielan Liu, BGC Engineering Inc., 1045 Howe Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada Neil Ripley, BGC Engineering Inc., 1045 Howe Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Tsunamis have caused severe destruction to vulnerable populations through the ages. Commonly generated from oceanic subduction zones, they still remain difficult to predict. Recent instrumental record on risk of occurrence can be enhanced when complemented by historical, archeological, and geological studies. We assessed the coast at risk and overlaid civilian nuclear sites active, in expansion and under construction. The worldwide distribution of threatened nuclear sites revealed a clustering in South and South-East Asia. We identified four areas for urgent policy attention, including the need for funding to translate scientific risks assessment into effective policy. Content Type Journal Article Category Short Communication Pages 1-6 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0162-0 Authors Joaquin Rodriguez-Vidal, Department of Geodynamics and Paleontology, University of Huelva, 21071 Huelva, Spain Jose M. Rodriguez-Llanes, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Université catholique de Louvain, Box 1.30.15 Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs, 1200 Brussels, Belgium Debarati Guha-Sapir, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Université catholique de Louvain, Box 1.30.15 Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs, 1200 Brussels, Belgium Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Social vulnerability indices have emerged over the past decade as quantitative measures of the social dimensions of natural hazards vulnerability. But how reliable are the index rankings? Validation of indices with external reference data has posed a persistent challenge in large part because social vulnerability is multidimensional and not directly observable. This article applies global sensitivity analyses to internally validate the methods used in the most common social vulnerability index designs: deductive, hierarchical, and inductive. Uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the robustness of index ranks when reasonable alternative index configurations are modeled. The hierarchical design was found to be the most accurate, while the inductive model was the most precise. Sensitivity analysis is employed to understand which decisions in the vulnerability index construction process have the greatest influence on the stability of output rankings. The deductive index ranks are found to be the most sensitive to the choice of transformation method, hierarchical models to the selection of weighting scheme, and inductive indices to the indicator set and scale of analysis. Specific recommendations for each stage of index construction are provided so that the next generation of social vulnerability indices can be developed with a greater degree of transparency, robustness, and reliability. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0152-2 Authors Eric Tate, Department of Geography, University of Iowa, 316 Jessup Hall, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study presents a review of recently recorded instability phenomena on the flysch slopes of Istria, Croatia. The northeastern part of the Istrian Peninsula, the so-called Gray Istria, is built of Paleogene flysch deposits, where instability phenomena are frequent and where a large number of landslides, with significant consequences, have been recorded over the past 35 years. Based on field investigations conducted for the purpose of remedial study design, a database of these landslides was created. An investigation of the documented landslides and their elements found some common features that enabled general conclusions about the conditions and causes of landslide occurrence. In total, 19 documented landslides have been analyzed as individual phenomena, and from the results of these analyses, general conclusions were drawn about sliding conditions and the main triggering factors. Geological conditions and processes on slopes where landslides occurred are shown in detail, and geotechnical properties have been systematically represented. The sliding conditions and dimensions of four recent landslide occurrences, specifically by type, have been described in detail and analyzed. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0150-4 Authors Sanja Dugonjić Jovančević, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Rijeka, Radmile Matejčić 3, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia Željko Arbanas, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Rijeka, Radmile Matejčić 3, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Mountainous areas in Nepal are prone to landslides, resulting in an enormous loss of life and property every year. As a first step towards mitigating or controlling such problems, it is necessary to prepare landslide susceptibility maps. Various methodologies have been proposed for landslide susceptibility mapping. This study applies the weight of evidence method to the Tinau watershed in west Nepal. A landslide susceptibility map is prepared on the basis of field observations and available data of geology, land use, topography and hydrology. Predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the locations of past landslides. The results show that about 30 % of the area is highly susceptible to landsliding. The present results provide useful information to the authorities concerning the landslide susceptibility zones and possible improvements for disaster management activities and sustainable development. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0163-z Authors Prabin Kayastha, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Megh Raj Dhital, Mountain Risk Engineering Unit, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal Florimond De Smedt, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this study, soil response was carried out for the Greater Delhi region. A folded Proterozoic formation was identified as Delhi ridge, passes through its central part along SSW–NNE direction, and appears to be a main geomorphic feature for the study area. The Delhi ridge is an exposed quartzite rock of about 10–100 m wide and ~25 km long with gentler dipping both toward east and west. We have considered the exposed part as an outcrop side near the ridge axis and the dipping area as rigid base away from the ridge axis for ground motion study during the occurrence of the 25 November 2007 earthquake with magnitude M L 4.3 (Richter scale) that occurred at Delhi–Haryana State boundary. The degree of shaking was very strong and reported major cracks in the buildings near the epicenter area. We have studied the soil response parameters at the surface level, considering horizontally stratified soil layers above rigid base. The equivalent linear method was used for soil response analysis at 25 sites in Greater Delhi area. The peak amplification factors vary from 3.2 to 5.9 and peak resonance frequency varies from 1.2 to 5.3 Hz. The correlation among the peak amplification factor ( A ) and frequency ( f ) was empirically established as A  = 0.36 f  + 3.60. Increasing peak amplification factor was found at sites with increasingly thicker alluvium deposit with lower frequency contains ground motion and vice versa. Seismic zoning map was also reconstructed for peak amplification factors and predominant periods for the study area for the mitigation purposes of earthquake damage. The average shear wave velocity up to 30 m soil depth is also obtained for site classification. The average velocity to 30 m [ V \text s   (30) ] is a widely used parameter for classifying sites for predicting their potentiality to amplify seismic shaking. A lower value [ V \text s   (30) ] thus yields a more conservative estimate of ground motion, which generally increases as V \text s   (30) decreases. Present estimate of V \text s   (30) varies from 315 to 419 m/s. In this study, we have identified two site classes C and D, as per National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The city planner or engineers can directly use these data for site-specific assessment during retrofitting of the existing structure, demolition of the old buildings and design a new structure to avoid major destruction of the buildings due to future earthquake. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0098-4 Authors H. S. Mandal, Earthquake Risk Evaluation Center, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India P. K. Khan, Department of Applied Geophysics, Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad, India A. K. Shukla, Earthquake Risk Evaluation Center, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Current fire danger scales do not adequately reflect the potential destructive force of a bushfire in Australia and, therefore, do not provide fire prone communities with an adequate warning for the potential loss of human life and property. To determine options for developing a bushfire severity scale based on community impact and whether a link exists between the energy release rate (power) of a fire and community loss, this paper reviewed observations of 79 wildfires (from 1939 to 2009) across Victoria and other southern states of Australia. A methodology for estimating fire power based on fuel loading, fire size and progression rate is presented. McArthur’s existing fire danger indices (FDIs) as well as fuel- and slope-adjusted FDIs were calculated using fire weather data. Analysis of possible relationships between fire power, FDIs, rate of spread and Byram’s fireline intensity and community loss was performed using exposure as a covariate. Preliminary results showed that a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of the fire than between loss and FDI, although fuel-adjusted FDI was also a good predictor of loss. The database developed for this study and the relationships established are essential for undertaking future studies that require observations of past fire behaviour and losses and also to form the basis of developing a new severity scale. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0156-y Authors Sarah Harris, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia Wendy Anderson, School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia Musa Kilinc, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia Liam Fogarty, Fire Planning and Knowledge, Land and Fire Division, Department of Sustainability and Environment, 8 Nicholson St, East Melbourne, VIC 3002, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The Sistan area is located in the east of Iran, enclosure to Afghanistan border. It is a densely populated enclave in the scarcely populated arid area of the eastern part of Iran, where the life strongly depends on the shallow water of Hamoun Lake and wetlands in the delta of the Helmand River flows from the Hindukush Mountains in western Afghanistan. As the water resources are scarce in this arid region, the availability of freshwater in Hamoun Lake has caused many socioeconomic and environmental effects in study area during several years. Various categories of socioeconomic criteria have been defined that are influenced by the Hamoun wetland, namely employment, economic value of fish catch, reeds harvest and birds hunt, food supplying and its influence on the microclimate of the region and the severity of the sandstorms, health and finally provision of recreational opportunities in the region. On the other hand, the high evaporation rates in a very dry region and climatic fluctuations make very vulnerable ecosystem, causing several environmental challenges into human activities. Prolonged droughts due to decrease in annual rainfall in the Hirmand watershed based on climate change in the last decade have been recorded in this environmental hazardous area. Drying up of Hamoun Lake and dead reed system in the wetlands was monitored in the present study using the time series of satellite imagery. The lifelessness of Hamoun Lake has caused several environmental effects such as sandstorm and dust hazard, destroying vegetation, vanishing crop production, damage to fish and bird habitat, extensively decreasing reeds harvesting, reducing livestock and increasing wildlife death rates, increasing air pollution and consequently health problems, salty soil movement over the agriculture fields, etc., which have been identified as the outcome of this research. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0353-8 Authors Mohammad Sharifikia, Department of Remote Sensing, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The year 2010 through 2011 witnessed a number of disasters such as floods in Pakistan and Eastern Europe and earthquakes in Chile, China and Haiti. In response, earth observation (EO) data, geographic information science (GIS) technologies and services were used to provide information before, during and after the disaster occurred. However, use of EO for disaster management still faces a number of challenges due to the lack of common established standards for producing disaster products, the lack of coordination between a large number of suppliers leading to a large collection of datasets on websites of coordinating agencies and the lack of an established framework for monitoring and authenticating the level of quality and reliability of the products delivered to the targeted users. Assessing the quality of such products is a challenge to any potential user of such datasets. The methodology presented here integrates the role of EO expert and targeted end-user into one model where the first phase involves the expert and the second phase the end-user. The expert handles the technical and expertise aspect of EO data by rating the level of conformance of a product to the parameters of a “quality information template” (QIT), and the end-user explores various rated datasets and sets preferences for decision-making based on this QIT. The end-user has the possibility of accessing the product through an interactive web platform. The preferences set are used for weighing and ranking for the combination of the potential datasets and the task to be performed. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-33 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0351-x Authors Leonard Ondongo Sweta, Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Kasarani, Nairobi, Kenya Wietske Bijker, Faculty of Geo-information and Earth Observation, ITC, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Although both improved risk communication and the building of social capacities have been advocated as vital ways to increase societies’ resilience towards natural hazards across the world, the literature has rarely examined the ways in which these two concepts may integrate in theory and practice. This paper is an attempt to address this gap in a European context. It begins with a conceptual discussion that unites the literature on risk communication with the literature on social capacity building. We then use the insights from this discussion as a basis to conduct a review of 60 risk communication practices from across Europe. This review indicates a gap between theory and practice because, whilst the literature highlights the importance of integrated and coordinated communication campaigns featuring both a one-way transfer and a two-way dialogue between the public, stakeholders and decision-makers, the majority of the communication practices reviewed here appear to be relatively disparate initiatives that rely on one-way forms of communication. On the basis of these findings, we conclude by making some recommendations for the way in which such practices could be improved in order to be more supportive of social capacities across Europe. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0356-5 Authors Corina Höppner, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland Rebecca Whittle, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ UK Michael Bründl, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland Matthias Buchecker, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Recently, artificial intelligence has been successfully applied to hazard prevention. Lego has released a programmable module, which many educational organizations and micro-operation robots have used. This has given rise to a new topic of study, how to use Lego NXT in education. In this paper, we present an application of Lego NXT in the subject of mathematics. The principle is based on Kolb’s innovative learning cycle that the user’s active learning and cooperative learning concepts complete the whole process of learning experience. In order to compare the effectiveness of learning, we use an experimental group and a control group and give then pre- and posttests. In addition, we proposed the technology acceptance model to investigate users’ degree of acceptance of Lego. The results show that our approach can improve the users’ mathematical achievements and strengthen the users’ intention to use. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0318-y Authors Bih-Yaw Shih, Department and Graduate School of Computer Science, National Pingtung University of Education, No. 4-18, Ming Shen Rd, Pingtung, 90003 Taiwan Chin-Jui Chang, Department of Information Management, Transworld University, No. 1221, Jen-Nang Road, Chia-Tong Li, Douliou, Yunlin 64063, Taiwan, R.O.C. Ying-Hsiu Chen, Department of Applied Finance, Yuanpei University, No.306, Yuanpei Street, Hsinchu, 30015 Taiwan, R.O.C. Chen-Yuan Chen, Department and Graduate School of Computer Science, National Pingtung University of Education, No. 4-18, Ming Shen Rd, Pingtung, 90003 Taiwan Yau-Dong Liang, Department and Graduate School of Computer Science, National Pingtung University of Education, No. 4-18, Ming Shen Rd, Pingtung, 90003 Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper describes the options appraisal undertaken in the UK within the major TE2100 project to investigate the future of protecting London from flooding from the sea. An economic analysis, within a Benefit-Cost framework complemented by Multi-Criteria Analysis, shows that improving the existing flood defences and, in 2070, constructing a new Thames Barrier downstream from the existing one are the “front runner” options for tackling the increase in flood risk that is anticipated in the future. Both sensitivity and scenario analysis have little effect on option choice. Uncertainties inevitably remain, however, when looking so far ahead, but it is clear that continuing to protect this area from the sea is highly cost-beneficial. Also the very high standard of protection now, and the robustness of the existing flood defence assets, mean that major new interventions will not be needed for some time (i.e. until c. 2070). We therefore have time to monitor the situation, carefully plan measures to maintain and enhance the existing defences, and to seek to restrain the growth of risk in the Estuary and in London through carefully designed and implemented resilience-building flood plain management measures. Rather than having to rush to new engineering works, because we have not anticipated what is needed but are forced to respond hastily to a “crisis” situation, the adaptive approach that is now possible is a key legacy of the TE2100 project. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0075-3 Authors Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Bramley Road, London, N14 4YZ UK Nick Haigh, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London, UK Sarah Lavery, Environment Agency, London, UK Loraine McFadden, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Bramley Road, London, N14 4YZ UK Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US3,000 billion . The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes : the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each . The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times , with total losses of US 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0312-4 Authors Angelika Wirtz, Munich Reinsurance Company, Koeniginstrasse 107, 80802 Munich, Germany Wolfgang Kron, Munich Reinsurance Company, Koeniginstrasse 107, 80802 Munich, Germany Petra Löw, Munich Reinsurance Company, Koeniginstrasse 107, 80802 Munich, Germany Markus Steuer, Munich Reinsurance Company, Koeniginstrasse 107, 80802 Munich, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past—a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0355-6 Authors C. P. Rajendran, Indian Institute of Science, Centre for Earth Sciences, Bangalore, 560012 India Kusala Rajendran, Indian Institute of Science, Centre for Earth Sciences, Bangalore, 560012 India Majid Shah-hosseini, Iranian National Center for Oceanography, Tehran, 1411813389 Iran Abdolmajid Naderi Beni, Iranian National Center for Oceanography, Tehran, 1411813389 Iran C. M. Nautiyal, Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeobotany, Lucknow, 226007 India Ronia Andrews, Indian Institute of Science, Centre for Earth Sciences, Bangalore, 560012 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Remote sensing data and methods are widely deployed in order to contribute to the assessment of numerous components of earthquake risk. While for earthquake hazard-related investigations, the use of remotely sensed data is an established methodological element with a long research tradition, earthquake vulnerability–centred assessments incorporating remote sensing data are increasing primarily in recent years. This goes along with a changing perspective of the scientific community which considers the assessment of vulnerability and its constituent elements as a pivotal part of a comprehensive risk analysis. Thereby, the availability of new sensors systems enables an appreciable share of remote sensing first. In this manner, a survey of the interdisciplinary conceptual literature dealing with the scientific perception of risk, hazard and vulnerability reveals the demand for a comprehensive description of earthquake hazards as well as an assessment of the present and future conditions of the elements exposed. A review of earthquake-related remote sensing literature, realized both in a qualitative and quantitative manner, shows the already existing and published manifold capabilities of remote sensing contributing to assess earthquake risk. These include earthquake hazard-related analysis such as detection and measurement of lineaments and surface deformations in pre- and post-event applications. Furthermore, pre-event seismic vulnerability–centred assessment of the built and natural environment and damage assessments for post-event applications are presented. Based on the review and the discussion of scientific trends and current research projects, first steps towards a roadmap for remote sensing are drawn, explicitly taking scientific, technical, multi- and transdisciplinary as well as political perspectives into account, which is intended to open possible future research activities. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-42 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0322-2 Authors Christian Geiß, German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany Hannes Taubenböck, German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The measurement and recording of the height and spatial extent reached by coastal storm surges is fundamental to scientific progress in understanding these phenomena. Such information is required for better prediction and for risk assessment. Model-based evaluation of increasing delta vulnerability, for example, cannot be tested without long-term, consistent, and sustained observation of actual events. Also, storm surges occur within the temporal context of tidal variation, which must first be characterized through observation. Present standard approaches for measuring storm surges are not optimum. Thus, tidal gauges provide information at one point, whereas the heights reached by surges vary spatially. Also, post-surge ground surveys are expensive, laborious, and commonly lack comparison to similar data obtained for previous surges or for high tides. The advent of moderate spatial resolution, high temporal resolution remote sensing initiated by the launch of the two NASA MODIS sensors greatly reduces these constraints. For over a decade, daily coverage of most coastal land areas, though restricted by cloud cover, has systematically captured the maximum extents reached by both high tides and by storm surges. Automated water classification algorithms are now transforming the incoming image data into GIS water boundary files, again at daily or near-daily time steps. This paper provides a retrospective view of sample storm surges as mapped via these sensors and describes: (a) the present, MODIS-based surface water surveillance system, (b) the mapping enhancement to be provided by frequent-repeat, wide-swath satellite radar imaging, and (c) the emerging prospects for routine global surveillance of storm surge events. Such will be necessary if long-term trends are to be recognized, characterized, and understood, along coastal zones now being affected by both increasing subsidence and rising sea level. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0317-z Authors G. R. Brakenridge, CSDMS/INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA J. P. M. Syvitski, CSDMS/INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA I. Overeem, CSDMS/INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA S. A. Higgins, CSDMS/INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA A. J. Kettner, CSDMS/INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA J. A. Stewart-Moore, CSDMS/INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA R. Westerhoff, Deltares, Postbox 85467, 3508 AL Utrecht, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Over the past few decades, intense urban expansion has occurred over the Campi Flegrei territorial system without considering the volcanic risk. In this active volcanic area, where a short period evacuation could be necessary, the emergency management cannot be based solely on hazard-related information. The territorial and social features must also be considered. In this framework, the main purpose of this research is to point out the seriousness of the present setting of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case an evacuation is necessary. Following the concept of regional evacuation, the zone to be involved in emergency planning was identified as the whole of the area threatened by the volcanic events of the past 10 ka. Inside this area the spatial relation between the resident distribution and the outflows of roads, railway stations and harbours, to facilitate evacuation, was investigated. A spatial relational GIS-based procedure was used to draw the territorial system vulnerability map, depicting the zones with different capabilities to support the evacuation of residents in case of volcanic activity. Based on the concept that people could leave the dangerous area by the means of transport supplied by Civil Protection, and using the threshold value of over-crowding of 0.70 people/m 2 , we identified the collection areas for residents to be immediately evacuated in case of volcanic unrest, and five macrozones displaying different capabilities to cope with an emergency phase. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-32 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0335-x Authors I. Alberico, Centro Interdipartimentale Ricerca Ambiente (CIRAM), Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Mezzocannone 16, 80134 Naples, Italy P. Petrosino, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, L.go S. Marcellino 10, 80138 Naples, Italy G. Maglione, Dipartimento di Progettazione Urbana e di Urbanistica, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Forno Vecchio 36, 80134 Naples, Italy L. Bruno, Dipartimento di Progettazione Urbana e di Urbanistica, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Forno Vecchio 36, 80134 Naples, Italy F. S. Capaldo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dei Trasporti, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italy A. Dal Piaz, Dipartimento di Progettazione Urbana e di Urbanistica, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Via Forno Vecchio 36, 80134 Naples, Italy L. Lirer, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, L.go S. Marcellino 10, 80138 Naples, Italy S. Mazzola, Istituto per l’Ambiente Marino Costiero (IAMC), CNR, Calata Porta di Massa, Interno Porto di Napoli, 80133 Naples, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Comprehensive hazard mitigation involves (1) understanding natural systems, (2) assessment of interactions within and between social systems and the built environment, and (3) understanding geo-spatial processes. To achieve this, local emergency managers must recognize variability in vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. In this study, we assess whether cities in Los Angeles County are subject to disproportionally greater earthquake losses modeled from a M7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Furthermore, we analyze whether the variation in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics across cities is associated with the earthquake losses. We were able to explain 23.2 % of variance in e conomic losses by looking at the percentage of minority residents, income, and renter residents in a city [ F (3,84) = 8.47; p  〈 .001]. Cities with primarily minority residents had greater economic losses when compared to cities with primarily White residents ( b  = 1.01; p  〈 .001). When looking at the association between demographic predictors and potential casualty rate , the percentage of Hispanic residents was positively associated with the potential casualty rate. We argue that knowledge of the relationship between earthquake hazard and the demographic characteristics of people in the area at risk is essential to mitigate the local impact from earthquakes. In other words, we apply social vulnerability assessment as part of a comprehensive risk management framework to accelerate recovery after an event. Local policy makers and the private sector can use this approach to gain a better understanding of a city’s social vulnerability and adapt their preparedness efforts accordingly. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0301-7 Authors Gabriela R. Noriega, Environmental Analysis and Design, School of Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA Lisa Grant Ludwig, California Institute for Hazards Research, Irvine, CA, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landslide susceptibility maps are vital for disaster management and for planning development activities in the mountainous country like Nepal. In the present study, landslide susceptibility assessment of Mugling–Narayanghat road and its surrounding area is made using bivariate (certainty factor and index of entropy) and multivariate (logistic regression) models. At first, a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports and aerial photographs as well as by carrying out field survey. As a result, 321 landslides were mapped and out of which 241 (75 %) were randomly selected for building landslide susceptibility models, while the remaining 80 (25 %) were used for validating the models. The effectiveness of landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and statistics is based on appropriate selection of the factors which play a dominant role in slope stability. In this case study, the following landslide conditioning factors were evaluated: slope gradient; slope aspect; altitude; plan curvature; lithology; land use; distance from faults, rivers and roads; topographic wetness index; stream power index; and sediment transport index. These factors were prepared from topographic map, drainage map, road map, and the geological map. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was carried out using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC plot estimation results showed that the susceptibility map using index of entropy model with AUC value of 0.9016 has highest prediction accuracy of 90.16 %. Similarly, the susceptibility maps produced using logistic regression model and certainty factor model showed 86.29 and 83.57 % of prediction accuracy, respectively. Furthermore, the ROC plot showed that the success rate of all the three models performed more than 80 % accuracy (i.e. 89.15 % for IOE model, 89.10 % for LR model and 87.21 % for CF model). Hence, it is concluded that all the models employed in this study showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility of Mugling–Narayanghat road section. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0347-6 Authors Krishna Chandra Devkota, Department of Geology, Kyungpook National University, 1370 Sankyuk-dong, Buk-gu, Taegu, 702-701 Korea Amar Deep Regmi, Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Shinshu University, Asahi 3-1-1, Matsumoto, 3908621 Japan Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, College of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU), Tehran, Iran Kohki Yoshida, Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Shinshu University, Asahi 3-1-1, Matsumoto, 3908621 Japan Biswajeet Pradhan, Faculty of Engineering, Geospatial Information Science Research Centre (GIS RC), University Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia In Chang Ryu, Department of Geology, Kyungpook National University, 1370 Sankyuk-dong, Buk-gu, Taegu, 702-701 Korea Megh Raj Dhital, Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan Univeristy, Kritipur, Kathmandu, Nepal Omar F. Althuwaynee, Faculty of Engineering, Geospatial Information Science Research Centre (GIS RC), University Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Southwest regions of Iran, due to dry environmental and climatic conditions, have been identified as one of the five major regions in the world. In recent years, large parts of Iran have been affected by suspended particles from the dust storms. The studied area is located in foothills of the Zagros Mountain Range just north of Persian Gulf in southwest of Iran. Dust and other meteorological data were prepared in 3-hour intervals from 12 synoptic weather stations. For tracking dust storms, satellite images of MODIS were used. Atmospheric conditions during the occurrence of dust storms were determined using NCEP reanalysis data. According to the statistical calculations, most storms occurred in the spring and summer. The lowest number of dust events occurred in the fall and winter particularly in December and January, when there are high possibilities of rainfall occurrence and dynamical instability conditions in the north and west of the region. The results illustrated that the highest amounts of hourly dust occurred in the afternoon and the lowest amounts occurred at 00UTC (3.30 am local times). It seems that it is closely related to the heating surface and the occurrence of local dry instabilities. Analyses of data showed that dust amounts (or volumes) in all the stations have two climactic peaks, first between 1982 and 1990 and second between 2005 and 2008 periods. These peaks can be related to a variety of factors including anthropogenic factors such as war, agricultural activities, dam construction, and widespread droughts. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0328-9 Authors Azizi Ghasem, Department of Physical Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran AliAkbar Shamsipour, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Azin Alley, Vesal Street, Engelab Ave, Tehran, Iran Morteza Miri, Department of Physical Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Taher Safarrad, Department of Physical Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper presents a new method for quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in China. As an important area of vulnerability research, quantitative assessment of vulnerability has raised much focus in academia. Presently, scholars have proposed a variety of methods for quantitative assessment, which usually create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators, based on the understanding of the cause or mechanism of vulnerability. However, due to the complex nature of vulnerability, this approach caused some arguments on the indicator selection and the weight set for subindices. A data envelopment analysis–based model for the assessment of the regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional methods, and a new approach for the classification of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability to natural hazards in China’s mainland is illustrated as a case study. The result shows that the overall level of vulnerability to natural hazards in mainland China is high. The geographic pattern shows that vulnerability is highest in western China, followed by diminishing vulnerability in central China, and lowest vulnerability levels in eastern China. There is a negative correlation between the level of vulnerability and the level of regional economic development. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0348-5 Authors Jianyi Huang, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Yi Liu, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 10010 China Li Ma, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 10010 China Fei Su, School of Tourism and City Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, 310018 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The semi-empirical approach for modeling of strong ground motion given by Midorikawa (Tectonophysics 218:287–295, 1993 ) has been modified in the present paper for component wise simulation of strong ground motion. The modified approach uses seismic moment in place of attenuation relation for scaling of acceleration envelope. Various strong motion properties like directivity effect and dependence of peak ground acceleration with respect to surface projection of source model have been studied in detail in the present work. Recently, Sikkim earthquake of magnitude 6.9 ( M w ) that occurred on September 18, 2011 has been recorded at various near-field and far-field strong motion stations. The modified semi-empirical technique has been used to confirm the location and parameters of rupture responsible for this earthquake. Strong motion record obtained from the iterative modeling of the rupture plane has been compared with available strong motion records from near as well as far-field stations in terms of root mean square error between observed and simulated records. Several possibilities of nucleation point, rupture velocity, and dip of rupture plane have been considered in the present work and records have been simulated at near-field stations. Final selection of model parameters is based on root mean square error of waveform comparison. Final model confirms southward propagating rupture. Simulations at three near-field and twelve far-field stations have been made using final model. Comparison of simulated and observed record has been made in terms of peak ground acceleration and response spectra at 5 % damping. Comparison of simulated and observed record suggests that the method is capable of simulating record which bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. Present work shows that this technique gives records which matches in a wide frequency range for Sikkim earthquake and that too from simple and easily accessible parameters of the rupture plane. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-26 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0281-7 Authors A. Joshi, Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India Pushpa Kumari, Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India Sandeep Singh, Department of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India M. L. Sharma, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study describes the application of logistic regression to rock-fall susceptibility mapping along 11 km of a mountainous road on the Salavat Abad saddle, in southwest Kurdistan, Iran. To determine the factors influencing rock-falls, data layers of slope degree, slope aspect, slope curvature, elevation, distance to road, distance to fault, lithology, and land use were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. The results are shown as rock-fall susceptibility maps. A spatial database, which included 68 sites (34 rock-fall point cells with value of 1 and 34 no rock-fall point cells with value of 0) was developed and analyzed using a Geographic Information System, GIS. The results are shown as four classes of rock-fall susceptibility. In this study, distance to fault, lithology, slope curvature, slope degree, and distance to road were found to be the most important factors affecting rock-fall. It was concluded that about 76 % of the study area can be classified as having moderate and high susceptibility classes. Rock-fall point cells were used to verify results of the rock-fall susceptibility map using success curve rate and the area under the curve. The verification results showed that the area under the curve for rock-fall susceptibility map is 77.57 %. The results from this study demonstrated that the use of a logistic regression model within a GIS framework is useful and suitable for rock-fall susceptibility mapping. The rock-fall susceptibility map can be used to reduce susceptibility associated with rock-fall. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0321-3 Authors Ataollah Shirzadi, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Islamic Republic of Iran Lee Saro, Geoscience Information Center, Korea Institute of Geoscience & Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 92 Gwahang-No, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 305-350 Korea Oh Hyun Joo, Geoscience Information Center, Korea Institute of Geoscience & Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 92 Gwahang-No, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, 305-350 Korea Kamran Chapi, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Islamic Republic of Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Using detailed field mapping, an analysis of landslide risk has been undertaken in the flysch highlands of the Outer Western Carpathians. The standardized Czech methodology of expert derived susceptibility zonation widely used for land development planning purposes and deterministic modeling of shallow landslides was used to separately assess the susceptibility of different landslide types. The two susceptibility zonation maps were used to define landslide hazard using information about landslide reactivation and the return periods of precipitation that triggered the respective landslide types. A risk matrix was then used to qualitatively analyze the landslide risk to selected assets. The monetary value of these assets, according to actual market prices, was calculated and analyzed with respect to the risk classification. Since the study area is an important residential and recreational area, the practical application of the derived results was checked through a series of interviews conducted with personnel of the local government planning and construction office. This demonstrated a willingness to apply the landslide hazard maps as well as restraints of its successful application. The main one is the absence of legally binding regulations to enforce the spatial planers to use this information. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0339-6 Authors Jan Klimeš, Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, V Holešovičkách 41, 182 09 Prague 8, Czech Republic Jan Blahůt, Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, V Holešovičkách 41, 182 09 Prague 8, Czech Republic Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this study, a doubly nested tide–surge interaction model was established for the coastal region of Bangladesh. A fine grid model, capable of incorporating all major offshore islands, was nested into a coarse grid model extending up to 15°N latitude of the Bay of Bengal. To take into account the thickly populated small and big islands between Barisal and Chittagong and the extreme bending of the coastline accurately, a very fine grid model for this region was again nested into the fine grid model. Along the northeast corner of this very fine grid model, the Meghna River discharge was taken into account. The boundaries of the coast and islands were approximated through proper stair step, and the model equations were solved by semi–implicit finite difference technique using staggered grid. Appropriate tidal regime over the model domain was generated by forcing the sea level to be oscillatory with the constituent M2 along the southern open boundary of the coarse grid model omitting wind stress. This previously generated tidal regime was introduced as the initial state of the sea for nonlinear tide–surge interaction phenomenon. The model was applied to estimate water levels along the coastal region of Bangladesh due to the interaction of tide and surge associated with the storm April 1991, and the results were found to be in a reasonable agreement with those observed. The model was used to investigate the influence of offshore islands on water levels and water levels were found to be significantly influenced by offshore islands. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0341-z Authors Gour Chandra Paul, School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang, Malaysia Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail, School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang, Malaysia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Tornadoes have been reported in various places around the world. The United States has the greatest number of tornado reports. In South America, tornadoes have been reported in Argentina and neighboring countries, such as Chile, Brazil, and Uruguay. There are no reports of tornadoes in Colombia in the worldwide databases. The first reported tornado event in Colombia took place in 2001. Since then, four tornados have affected the northern part of Colombia. The aim of this study is to characterize the events reported on the Caribbean coast of Colombia and their relation to local climate conditions. Before 2001, we had no knowledge regarding tornadoes in this area. However, during the past 10 years, these atmospheric phenomena have occurred in Barranquilla and the surrounding metropolitan area. Worldwide databases on tornadoes have not registered any such events in this part of South America. A review of the atmospheric information was conducted to determine the influence of air temperature increases on tornado formation. This study reveals that tornadoes have appeared between May and September, the months during which the city experiences the hottest temperatures of the year. The most significant tornado took place on September 15, 2006. This tornado lasted 15 min and travelled almost 10 km. Of the four registered tornadoes, this was the only one to affect the residential area of the city. The other three affected only the suburbs located in the surrounding metropolitan area. The most recent phenomenon related with tornadoes took place between July and August of 2010, during which three tornadoes could have potentially formed. However, a vortex never made contact with the ground. This meteorological analysis is very basic because climate information for these areas is limited. Still, what information we have reveals conditions that are typical of tornado formation: a mass of cold air combined with high air temperatures in a specific area. The data analysis reveals that tornados have occurred between May and June. These months correspond to the period characterized by the highest temperatures: average temperatures of 28.2 °C and maximum temperatures of 33.2 °C. This is also the period characterized by the greatest relative humidity and precipitation (84 % and 50 mm, respectively). Because the tornadoes reports only appeared in the last 10 years, it is not possible to determine whether there is a realistic relationship between their occurrence and large-scale climatic change. This article characterizes tornadoes as a new environmental threat and not an isolated phenomenon for this part of Colombia. Tornadoes in this region should thus be included in global databases. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0337-8 Authors J. C. Ortiz-Royero, Grupo de Física Aplicada, Departamento de Física, Universidad del Norte, Km 5 via a Puerto Colombia, Barranquilla, Colombia Monica Rosales, Programa de Maestría en Ing, Civil, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    According to the latest UNFA Report on state of world population 2007, unleashing the potential of urban growth by 2030, the urban population will rise to 5 billion or 60 % of the world population. Liquefaction in urban areas is dangerous phenomenon, which cause more damage to buildings and loss of human lives. Chennai, the capital city of the State Tamil Nadu in India, is one of the densely populated cities in the country. The city has experienced moderate magnitude earthquakes in the past and also categorized under moderate seismic hazard as per the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS in Criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures; Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 1893 2001 ). A study has been carried out to evaluate the liquefaction potential of Chennai city using geological and geomorphological characteristics. The subsurface lithology and geomorphological maps were combined in the GIS platform for assessing the liquefaction potential. The liquefaction hazard broadly classified into three categories viz., liquefaction likely, possible and not likely areas. Mainly, the liquefaction likely areas spread along the coastal areas and around the river beds. The rest of the areas are liquefaction not likely and possible. The present map can be used as first-hand information on regional liquefaction potential for the city, and it will be help to the scientists, engineers and planners who are working for future site-specific studies of the city. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0331-1 Authors Ganapathy Pattukandan Ganapathy, Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Management, VIT University, Vellore, 632 014 Tamil Nadu, India Ajay S. Rajawat, Space Application Centre (SAC), Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Ahmadabad, 380 015 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In the slope stability analysis, the interslice force calculated by the method of slices is the internal force of the slope in the limit equilibrium state, which is vital to the design of reinforcement. However, none of the existing methods can guarantee a priori the interslice force is reasonable. Starting from the global analysis procedure, an optimization problem for maximizing the factor of safety is posed under the constraints that the system of forces in the sliding body is physically admissible. In the problem, both the factor of safety and the normal stress along the slip surface are taken as the independent variables. With weak nonlinearity and no numerical problems inherent in the methods of slices, the optimization problem can be solved by those conventional optimization techniques. No assumption is made regarding the interslice forces, but the system of forces from the optimization problem is physically admissible. To bracket the factor of safety, meanwhile, the minimum of the factor of safety is calculated through a minimization process under the same constraints as the maximization process. It is illustrated that for smooth slip surfaces, the solutions to the maximum and the minimum almost coincide, and for non-smooth slip surfaces, the interval of the solution is very narrow. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0345-8 Authors Hong Zheng, Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Ministry of Education, China Three Gorges University, Yi Chang, 443002 China Zhao Liang Yang, Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Ministry of Education, China Three Gorges University, Yi Chang, 443002 China Guan Hua Sun, State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430071 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-7 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0352-9 Authors Sven Fuchs, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria Jörn Birkmann, Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany Thomas Glade, Institute of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In many of the lesser developed areas of the world, regional development planning is increasingly important for meeting the needs of current and future inhabitants. Expansion of economic capability, infrastructure, and residential capacity requires significant investment, and so efforts to limit the negative effect of landslides and other natural hazards on these investments are crucial. Many of the newer approaches to identifying and mapping relative landslide susceptibility within a developing area are hindered by insufficient data in the places where it is most needed. An approach called matrix assessment was specifically designed for regional development planning where data may be limited. Its application produces a landslide-susceptibility map suitable for use with other planning data in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment. Its development also encourages collecting basic landslide inventory data suitable for site-specific studies and for refining landslide hazard assessments in the future. This paper illustrates how matrix assessment methodology was applied to produce a landslide-susceptibility map for the Commonwealth of Dominica, an island nation in the eastern Caribbean, and how with a follow up study the relative landslide-susceptibility mapping was validated. A second Caribbean application on Jamaica demonstrates how this methodology can be applied in a more geologically complex setting. A validated approach to mapping landslide susceptibility which does not require extensive input data offers a significant benefit to planning in lesser developed parts of the world. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0267-5 Authors Jerome V. De Graff, USDA Forest Service, 1600 Tollhouse Road, Clovis, CA 93611, USA H. Charles Romesburg, Department of Environment and Society, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA Rafi Ahmad, Mona Geoinformatics Institute, Unit for Disaster Studies, University of the West Indies, Mona, Jamaica James P. McCalpin, GEO-HAZ Consulting, Inc., P.O. Box 837, Crestone, CO 81131, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Oasis is not only the most concentrated area of human activities in arid region but also the largest area where artificial disturbances occur at the regional scale. The Jinta Oasis is a very typical artificial oasis in arid region of China and is set as one of the national land resource developing and representative areas in China. With the continuous increase in population and livestock number in Jinta Oasis, such severe problems of environmental degradation as serious land pollution and desertification, water environmental degradation, and vegetation degeneracy occur within the whole oasis. Content Type Journal Article Category Short Communication Pages 1-5 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0290-6 Authors Shanzhong Qi, College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, No. 88 Wenhua East Road, Jinan, 250014 Shandong, China Zhaopei Zheng, College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, No. 88 Wenhua East Road, Jinan, 250014 Shandong, China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Volcanic ash is the most widespread of all volcanic hazards and has the potential to affect hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of people in the densely populated islands of Indonesia. There is limited information available for this region on the hazard posed by volcanic ash, particularly from volcanoes that have not erupted in recent times. There is a need for computational models capable of accurately predicting volcanic ash dispersal at ground level when coupled with field observations of historical or ongoing eruptive activity. To maximise the effectiveness of such models, they should be readily accessible, easy to use and well tested. Geoscience Australia in collaboration with the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction and the Indonesian Centre for Volcanology and Geohazard Mitigation has collaboratively adapted an existing open-source volcanic ash dispersion model for use in Indonesia. The core model is the widely used, open-source volcanic ash dispersion model FALL3D. A Python wrapper (name here python-FALL3D) has been developed, which modifies the modelling procedure of FALL3D in order to simplify its use for those with little or no background in computational modelling. The modified procedure does not alter the core functionality of FALL3D, but simplifies the modelling procedure by streamlining the installation process, automating both the pre-processing of input meteorological datasets and configuring and executing each utility program in a single-step process. An application example was presented using python-FALL3D for an active volcano in West Java, Indonesia. The example showed that communities located on the western side of Gunung Gede are always susceptible to volcanic ash ground loading regardless of the seasonal variations in wind conditions, whereas communities on the eastern side of Gunung Gede have a marked increase in susceptibility to ground loading during rainy season conditions when prevailing winds include a strong easterly component. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0273-7 Authors A. N. Bear-Crozier, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia Nugraha Kartadinata, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi, Jl. Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung, 40122 Indonesia Anjar Heriwaseso, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi, Jl. Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung, 40122 Indonesia Ole Nielsen, Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, Menara Thamrin Building Suite 1505, Jl. MH. Thamrin Kav. 3, Jakarta, 10250 Indonesia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The study area is 56-km coastal zone of Chennai district of the Tamil Nadu state, southeast coast of India. The coastline, which includes tourist resorts, ports, hotels, fishing villages, and towns, has experienced threats from many disasters such as storms, cyclones, floods, tsunami, and erosion. This was one of the worst affected area during 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and during 2008 Nisha cyclone. The present study aims to develop a Coastal Vulnerability Index for the Chennai coast using eight relative risk variables to know the high and low vulnerable areas, areas of inundation due to future SLR, and land loss due to coastal erosion. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analyzed with the aid of the remote sensing and geographic information system tools. Zones of vulnerability to coastal natural hazards of different magnitude (high, medium, and low) are identified and shown on a map. Coastal regional elevation, near-shore bathymetry, and socio-economic conditions have been considered as additional important variables. This study revealed that 11.01 km of the coastline has low vulnerability, 16.66 km has medium vulnerability, and 27.79 km is highly vulnerable in the study area, showing the majority of coastline is prone to erosion. The map prepared for the Chennai coast can be used by the state and district administration involved in the disaster mitigation and management plan and also as a tool in planning a new facility and for insurance purpose. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0276-4 Authors A. Arun Kumar, SRM University, Kattankulathur, Kancheepuram Dt, Tamil Nadu 603 203, India Pravin D. Kunte, National Institute of Oceanography, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Dona Paula, Goa 403 004, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Taiwan is located in Western Pacific and receives approximate 2,500 mm rainfall per year. Suffered from inadequate water supply during prolonged and severe droughts, assessing drought risk becomes one of the key tasks of water-resources planning and management in Taiwan. Well-prepared drought mitigation measures require assimilation of physical environment of droughts and human socioeconomic factors. An index-based approach is presented in this study to evaluate drought risk at municipal scale in Taiwan for current status (2008) as well as future scenarios (2021). A multiplicative formula links drought hazard (frequency, duration, and severity of droughts), drought exposure (water use), and drought vulnerability (unreliable water supply) to determine drought risk. This approach quantifies the spatial distribution of drought risk and is able to deal with future changes of water use and water-supply source and to examine their influences on drought risk assessments. The results reveal that the regions that are at great risk in the future are those regions already threaten by drought currently. Changes of future water use and water-supply source would not significantly alter spatial distribution of drought risk and ranking order among regions. These results present a basis for future water-resources planning and economic developments for each municipal region. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0239-9 Authors Jenq-Tzong Shiau, Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 701 Taiwan, ROC Ya-Yi Hsiao, Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 701 Taiwan, ROC Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Two moderate magnitude earthquakes ( M 5.5 and M 5.4) occurred in January 2010 with their epicenters at a distance of about 5 km between them, in the western part of the Corinth Gulf. The recordings of the regional seismological network, which is dense locally, were used for the location of the two main events and aftershocks, which are concentrated in three clusters beneath the northern coasts of the Gulf. The first two clusters accompany each one of the two stronger earthquakes, whereas the third cluster comprises only low magnitude aftershocks, located westward of the two stronger events. Seismic excitation started in January 18, 2010, with the M  = 5.5 earthquake in the area occupied by the central cluster. Seismicity immediately jumped to the east with numerous aftershocks and the M  = 5.4 earthquake which occurred four days later (January 22, 2010). Cross sections normal to the long axis of each cluster show ruptures on north dipping faults at depths of 7–11 km. Focal mechanisms of the stronger events of the sequence support the results obtained from the spatial distribution of the aftershocks that three different fault segments activated in this excitation. The slip vectors of all the events have an NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW orientation almost parallel to the direction of extension along the Corinth Gulf. Calculation of the Coulomb stress changes supports an interaction between the different clusters, with the major activity being coincided with the area of positive induced stress changes after the first earthquake. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0219-0 Authors Vassilios Karakostas, Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece Eleni Karagianni, Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece Parthena Paradisopoulou, Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A shallow-focus (3.8 km deep) and low-magnitude ( M L 3.8) earthquake occurred near Sheikhupura on August 08, 2010. Shaking was felt in parts of Potwar and northern Punjab but no associated damage has been reported. Tectonically, this earthquake occurred to the south of the Salt Range in the Punjab Seismic Zone (PSZ), a shallow-focus, moderate-level seismic zone characterized by steeply dipping strike-slip and extensional faults. The focal mechanism solution, using the seismological data of the United States Geological Survey and local observatory, shows an EW-trending fault plane dipping 710 N similar to the normal faults reported in the area previously. On the basis of the imposition of the stress field on the northward-moving Indian plate and the nature of the FMS of the previous and this earthquake, the Sheikhupura earthquake is considered as one of the intraplate earthquakes occurring frequently in the PSZ. The location of the event on the Bouguer gravity maps coincides with the zone of high gravity anomaly reflecting igneous intrusion(s) or, more likely, structural disturbances (i.e., extensional faulting in the basement). Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-7 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0243-0 Authors MonaLisa, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Islamabad, Pakistan M. Qasim Jan, National Centre of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Seismometer arrays have been widely applied to record collapse by controlled explosion in mines and caves. However, most underground failures are natural events, and because they can occur abruptly, underground failures represent a serious geological hazard. An accelerometric array installed on 4 September 2008 has been used to manage the geological risk of the Peschiera Springs drainage plant of Rome’s aqueduct, which is located in the Central Apennines approximately 80 km from Rome, Italy. The plant occupies a karstified carbonatic slope that is extensively involved in gravitational deformations, which are responsible for underground failures such as cracks and collapses. To distinguish among different types of recorded events, an automated procedure was implemented based on the duration, peak of ground acceleration (PGA) and PGA variation in the recordings of the plant’s accelerometric stations. The frequencies of earthquakes and micro-earthquakes due to underground failures are, in general, well correlated. Nevertheless, many underground failure sequences can be directly associated with the continuous deformations that affect the slope. The cumulative Arias intensity trend derived for the underground failures combined with the failure and earthquake frequencies enabled the definition of a control index (CI) that identifies alarming or emergency conditions. The CI can be used as a tool for managing the geological risk associated with the deformational processes that affect the drainage plant. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0245-y Authors L. Lenti, French Institute for Sciences and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks (IFSTTAR), Paris East University, 58 Boulevard Lefebvre, 75732 Paris Cedex 15, France S. Martino, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Centro di Ricerca Previsione, Prevenzione e Controllo dei Rischi Geologici (CE.RI.), Università di Roma “Sapienza”, P.za U. Pilozzi 9, Valmontone, Rome, Italy A. Paciello, Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l‘Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA—C.R. Casaccia), Via Anguillarese 301, S. Maria di Galeria, 00060 Rome, Italy A. Prestininzi, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Centro di Ricerca Previsione, Prevenzione e Controllo dei Rischi Geologici (CE.RI.), Università di Roma “Sapienza”, P.za U. Pilozzi 9, Valmontone, Rome, Italy S. Rivellino, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Centro di Ricerca Previsione, Prevenzione e Controllo dei Rischi Geologici (CE.RI.), Università di Roma “Sapienza”, P.za U. Pilozzi 9, Valmontone, Rome, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Dam breaks have catastrophic consequences for human lives. This paper presents a new human risk analysis model (HURAM) using Bayesian networks for estimating human risks due to dam-break floods. A Bayesian network is constructed according to a logic structure of loss-of-life mechanisms. The nodes (parameters) and the arcs (inter-relationships) of the network are quantified with historical data, existing models and physical analyses. A dataset of 343 dam-failure cases with records of fatality is compiled for this purpose. Comparison between two existing models and the new model is made to test the new model. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the important parameters that lead to loss of life. The new model is able to take into account a large number of important parameters and their inter-relationships in a systematic structure; include the uncertainties of these parameters and their inter-relationships; incorporate information derived from physical analysis, empirical models and historical data; and update the predictions when information in specific cases is available. The application of this model to the study of human risks in a specific dam-break case is presented in a companion paper. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0275-5 Authors M. Peng, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong L. M. Zhang, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario ‘Overall Risk’ to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario ‘Overall Growth’ (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-28 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0280-8 Authors Holger Cammerer, Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria Annegret H. Thieken, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany Peter H. Verburg, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Differences in atmospheric and oceanic environments which affect the tropical cyclone (TC) activity between the late twenty-first century (2071–2100, A1B) and the late twentieth century (1971–2000, 20C3M) are analyzed using multi-model ensemble from 15 general circulation models. Six factors (vertical wind shear, 700 hPa relative humidity, 850 hPa relative vorticity, outgoing longwave radiation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature) related to TC genesis predicts that more TCs in the future will occur than in the present. The result of maximum potential intensity analysis shows the frequency of occurrence and influence of stronger TCs will increase over the western North Pacific in the future. Anomalous northerly in the mid-latitudes of East Asia due to the strengthening of west-high and east-low pressure system pattern in the future plays an important role in blocking TC from moving toward mid-latitudes of East Asia. The multiple linear regression model (MLRM) developed using six predictors (independent variables) analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data predicts that total TC genesis frequency during July to October (JASO), which predicted using data of 20C3M, will have more (2–3) TCs than in the present. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0285-3 Authors Ki-Seon Choi, National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Korea Yu-Mi Cha, National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, Korea Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: The antiseismic ‘Siedlungen’ around L’Aquila: review of the book “L’Aquila. II progetto C.A.S.E.” a cura di Roberto Turino (in Italian), 2010 Content Type Journal Article Category Book Review Pages 1-2 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0288-0 Authors Maria Bostenaru Dan, “Ion Mincu” University of Architecture and Urban Planing, Bucharest, Romania Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN)–based methodology is proposed to determine the probability of inter-arrival time (IAT) of main shock of six broad seismic regions of India. Initially, classical methodology using exponential distribution is applied to IAT of earthquake events computed from earthquake catalog data. From the goodness-of-fit test results, it has been found that exponential distribution is not adequate. In this paper, a more efficient ANN-based methodology is proposed, and two ANN models are developed to determine the probability of IAT of earthquake events for a specified region, specified magnitude range or magnitude greater than the specified value. The performance of ANN models developed is validated with number of examples and found to predict the probability with minimal error compared to exponential distribution model. The methodology developed can be applied to any other region with the database of the respective regions. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0297-z Authors P. Kamatchi, CSIR-Structural Engineering Research Centre, CSIR Campus, Taramani, Chennai, 600 113 India K. Balaji Rao, CSIR-Structural Engineering Research Centre, CSIR Campus, Taramani, Chennai, 600 113 India Nagesh R. Iyer, CSIR-Structural Engineering Research Centre, CSIR Campus, Taramani, Chennai, 600 113 India S. Arunachalam, CSIR-Structural Engineering Research Centre, CSIR Campus, Taramani, Chennai, 600 113 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The geoindicators of land degradation such as erosion, vegetation change and wetland loss were identified in the Kashmir Himalayan region using a geospatial model. Geomatics techniques were used to generate information on landuse/landcover, NDVI, slope and the lithological formations that form inputs to map the erosion risk. The results of erosion analysis revealed that 48.27 % of the area is under very high erosion risk. The Middle Himalayan watersheds were found to be under high erosion risk compared to the Greater Himalayan watersheds. Pohru and Doodhganga watersheds of the Middle Himalayas were found to be under very high erosion risk. These two watersheds were studied in detail from 1992 to 2001 for vegetation change and wetland loss. In Pohru watershed, significant change was found in the dense forest with 10 % decrease. Wular lake, an important wetland in the Pohru watershed, has shrunk by 2.7 km 2 during the last decade. The vegetation change analysis of the Doodhganga watershed revealed that there has been 9.13 % decrease in the forest, 7 % increase in built up and the largest wetland in the Doodhganga, Hokarsar, has reduced by 1.98 km 2 from 1992 to 2001. Field studies showed that anthropogenic activities and chemically deficit soil (Karewa) along Pir Panjal ranges are the main factors responsible for high land degradation in the area. The assessment of these geoindicators provided valuable information for identifying causes and consequences of the land degradation and thus outlining potential hazard areas and designing remedial measures. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-27 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0293-3 Authors Sumira Nazir Zaz, Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir 190006, India Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir 190006, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this study, a numerical model of tide surge was developed and applied to the coast of Taiwan and the adjacent sea area. This two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and takes into account the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which is suitable for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The numerical model was calibrated and verified against the observed tide and surge tide for five typhoon events. The results indicate reasonable agreement between the model simulations and the observed data. The model was then used to study the effects of both different typhoon paths and the intensity of the wind stress and pressure at the typhoon center on the surge height. The regression equations for the surge height and pressure difference were also established for predicting the surge height along the coast of Taiwan. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0287-1 Authors Wei-Bo Chen, Supercomputing Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, 70101 Tainan, Taiwan Wen-Cheng Liu, Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, 36003 Miaoli, Taiwan Ming-Hsi Hsu, Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617 Taipei, Taiwan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Western Himalayas (WH) is characterized by variable topography and heterogeneous land use. During winter, it receives enormous amount of precipitation due to eastward moving extratropical cyclones, called western disturbances (WDs), in Indian parlance. This variable altitude and orientation of orographic barriers has a complex interplay with WDs in defining precipitation over the WH. To understand such complexities, three WDs are considered to study interaction with the Himalayan orography using the advanced regional prediction system. Two simulation strategies are performed and presented—first to illustrate the impact of different initial and boundary conditions and second to illustrate the impact of different horizontal model resolution with same model configuration. In the first strategy, three different initial and boundary conditions—the National Center for Environmental Prediction–Global Forecast System, USA (NCEP–GFS) (1) analysis (2) 0000UTC forecast and the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast, India–T80 spectral model (NCMRWF–T80) (3) 0000UTC forecast—are provided to the same model configuration. In the second strategy, outputs from model simulated with NCMRWF—T80 spectral model forecast at coarser horizontal model resolution of 30 km (hereafter called Experiment I) are used as input initial and boundary conditions for simulation at finer horizontal model resolution of 10 km (hereafter called Experiment II). Though there are many other dynamical factors, but in the present study, it is shown that model-simulated precipitation is sensitive to the initial and boundary conditions. Simulations at coarse resolution could capture the weather system, but detailed spatial distribution along the orography is better illustrated at finer resolution model simulation. Also, Experiment II could simulate precipitation over different ranges of the western Himalayas depicting orographic forcings. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0304-4 Authors G. Semwal, Instrument Research and Development Establishment, Raipur, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India A. P. Dimri, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A semi-quantitative heuristic methodology is developed to map a rockfall detachment susceptibility zonation of El Hierro Island (Canary Archipelago). The rationalized procedure, which we called non-weighted bounded indicators, is based on overlapping thematic maps of conditioning factors to mass movement, which are appropriately and individually rescaled and then composed by addition to obtain a susceptibility numerical index through a GIS. As the consistency of the geomorphological analysis depends on the expert subjective criteria and the appropriate interpretation of the landscape, the use of this methodology reduces subjectivity and quantifies the degree of susceptibility. The main factors affecting the mass movement phenomena (rockfalls events), also recognized in the field and, therefore, considered in the presented GIS arrangement, are slope, profile curvature, lithology, vegetation cover and dykes density. To calculate the slope threshold or minimum angle characteristic of rockfall source areas, mixed Gaussian slope frequency decomposition is used. The curvature index reveals stepwise areas. Qualitative geomechanical characteristics are linked to a quantitative index according to a volcanic lithological-complexes classification. Both destabilization (root-wedging) and stabilization effects are considered into the vegetation cover index. The dyke density index incorporates the bearing rock capacity decrease produced in the halo around a dyke network intrusion. Slope, curvature and vegetation indexes thresholds have been fitted following field observations. A rockfall detachment susceptibility map is obtained and classified based on the histogram maxima. The rockfall inventory, based on rockfall events reported within the island, was used for the model validation. A 12 % of the whole island shows medium to very high susceptibility. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0295-1 Authors Marta Fernandez-Hernández, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Métodos Informáticos, E.T.S. Ingenieros de Minas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, C/Alenza no 4, C.P. 28003 Madrid, Spain Carlos Paredes, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Métodos Informáticos, E.T.S. Ingenieros de Minas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, C/Alenza no 4, C.P. 28003 Madrid, Spain Ricardo Castedo, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Métodos Informáticos, E.T.S. Ingenieros de Minas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, C/Alenza no 4, C.P. 28003 Madrid, Spain Miguel Llorente, Departamento de Investigación y Prospectiva Geocientífica, Investigación en Peligrosidad y Riesgos Geológicos, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, C/Ríos Rosas no 23, C.P. 28003 Madrid, Spain Rogelio de la Vega-Panizo, Departamento de Explotación de Recursos Minerales y Obras Subterráneas, E.T.S. Ingenieros de Minas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, C/Alenza no 4, C.P. 28003 Madrid, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X