ALBERT

Description: Deciphering the spatio-temporal complexity of climate change of the last deglaciation: a model analysis Climate of the Past, 7, 591-602, 2011 Author(s): D. M. Roche, H. Renssen, D. Paillard, and G. Levavasseur Understanding the sequence of events occuring during the last major glacial to interglacial transition (21 ka BP to 9 ka BP) is a challenging task that has the potential to unveil the mechanisms behind large scale climate changes. Though many studies have focused on the understanding of the complex sequence of rapid climatic change that accompanied or interrupted the deglaciation, few have analysed it in a more theoretical framework with simple forcings. In the following, we address when and where the first significant temperature anomalies appeared when using slow varying forcing of the last deglaciation. We used here coupled transient simulations of the last deglaciation, including ocean, atmosphere and vegetation components to analyse the spatial timing of the deglaciation. To keep the analysis in a simple framework, we did not include freshwater forcings that potentially cause rapid climate shifts during that time period. We aimed to disentangle the direct and subsequent response of the climate system to slow forcing and moreover, the location where those changes are more clearly expressed. In a data – modelling comparison perspective, this could help understand the physically plausible phasing between known forcings and recorded climatic changes. Our analysis of climate variability could also help to distinguish deglacial warming signals from internal climate variability. We thus are able to better pinpoint the onset of local deglaciation, as defined by the first significant local warming and further show that there is a large regional variability associated with it, even with the set of slow forcings used here. In our model, the first significant hemispheric warming occurred simultaneously in the North and in the South and is a direct response to the obliquity forcing.

Description: The last deglaciation: timing the bipolar seesaw Climate of the Past, 7, 671-683, 2011 Author(s): J. B. Pedro, T. D. van Ommen, S. O. Rasmussen, V. I. Morgan, J. Chappellaz, A. D. Moy, V. Masson-Delmotte, and M. Delmotte Precise information on the relative timing of north-south climate variations is a key to resolving questions concerning the mechanisms that force and couple climate changes between the hemispheres. We present a new composite record made from five well-resolved Antarctic ice core records that robustly represents the timing of regional Antarctic climate change during the last deglaciation. Using fast variations in global methane gas concentrations as time markers, the Antarctic composite is directly compared to Greenland ice core records, allowing a detailed mapping of the inter-hemispheric sequence of climate changes. Consistent with prior studies the synchronized records show that warming (and cooling) trends in Antarctica closely match cold (and warm) periods in Greenland on millennial timescales. For the first time, we also identify a sub-millennial component to the inter-hemispheric coupling. Within the Antarctic Cold Reversal the strongest Antarctic cooling occurs during the pronounced northern warmth of the Bølling. Warming then resumes in Antarctica, potentially as early as the Intra-Allerød Cold Period, but with dating uncertainty that could place it as late as the onset of the Younger Dryas stadial. There is little-to-no time lag between climate transitions in Greenland and opposing changes in Antarctica. Our results lend support to fast acting inter-hemispheric coupling mechanisms, including recently proposed bipolar atmospheric teleconnections and/or rapid bipolar ocean teleconnections.

Description: Reply to Henriksson et al.'s comment on "Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity" by Annan and Hargreaves (2010) Climate of the Past, 7, 587-589, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves Henriksson et al. (2010), hereafter HALTL10, criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2006a) (AH06) primarily on the grounds that we assumed that different sources of data were conditionally independent given the climate sensitivity. While we consider this approximation to have been a reasonable one under the circumstances (and provided arguments to justify this approach), we also acknowledged its importance in our original paper and performed several sensitivity analyses. The alternative calculations presented by HALTL10 appear to strengthen rather than contradict our conclusion. HALTL10 additionally criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2009) (AH09) for proposing a Cauchy type prior (as an alternative to the use of a uniform prior, which was widespread up to that time) "without sufficient support", and further claim that anticipated economic damages were used as a means of selecting the prior. We are surprised by these claims, especially considering that the proposed prior was justified at some length both on the basis of both the "Charney report" (National Research Council, 1979) and basic physical arguments, and also in light of our elementary demonstration of the pathological failings of the most commonly-used alternative. Thus, these claims are factually incorrect.

Description: Methane variations on orbital timescales: a transient modeling experiment Climate of the Past, 7, 635-648, 2011 Author(s): T. Y. M. Konijnendijk, S. L. Weber, E. Tuenter, and M. van Weele Methane (CH 4 ) variations on orbital timescales are often associated with variations in wetland coverage, most notably in the summer monsoon areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we test this assumption by simulating orbitally forced variations in global wetland emissions, using a simple wetland distribution and CH 4 emissions model that has been run on the output of a climate model (CLIMBER-2) containing atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The transient climate modeling simulation extends over the last 650 000 yr and includes variations in land-ice distribution and greenhouse gases. Tropical temperature and global vegetation are found to be the dominant controls for global CH 4 emissions and therefore atmospheric concentrations. The relative importance of wetland coverage, vegetation coverage, and emission temperatures depends on the specific climatic zone (boreal, tropics and Indian/Asian monsoon area) and timescale (precession, obliquity and glacial-interglacial timescales). Despite the low spatial resolution of the climate model and crude parameterizations for methane production and release, simulated variations in CH 4 emissions agree well with those in measured concentrations, both in their time series and spectra. The simulated lags between emissions and orbital forcing also show close agreement with those found in measured data, both on the precession and obliquity timescale. We find causal links between atmospheric CH 4 concentrations and tropical temperatures and global vegetation, but only covariance between monsoon precipitation and CH 4 concentrations. The primary importance of the first two factors explains the lags found in the CH 4 record from ice cores. Simulation of the dynamical vegetation response to climate variation on orbital timescales would be needed to reduce the uncertainty in these preliminary attributions.

Description: A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate Climate of the Past, 7, 649-670, 2011 Author(s): J. Brandefelt, E. Kjellström, J.-O. Näslund, G. Strandberg, A. H. L. Voelker, and B. Wohlfarth We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature ( T s ) is 5.5 °C lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 °C higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50 % in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. (iii) El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions. (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean T s only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.

Description: The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited Climate of the Past, 7, 603-633, 2011 Author(s): M. Huber and R. Caballero The early Eocene "equable climate problem", i.e. warm extratropical annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures evidenced by proxy records, has remained as one of the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate. Recent progress in modeling and in paleoclimate proxy development provides an opportunity to revisit this problem to ascertain if the current generation of models can reproduce the past climate features without extensive modification. Here we have compiled early Eocene terrestrial temperature data and compared with climate model results using a consistent and rigorous methodology. We test the hypothesis that equable climates can be explained simply as a response to increased greenhouse gas forcing within the framework of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (version 3), a climate model in common use for predicting future climate change. We find that, with suitably large radiative forcing, the model and data are in general agreement for annual mean and cold month mean temperatures, and that the pattern of high latitude amplification recorded by proxies can be largely, but not perfectly, reproduced.

Description: The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature Climate of the Past, 7, 527-542, 2011 Author(s): G. van der Schrier, A. van Ulden, and G. J. van Oldenborgh The Central Netherlands Temperature (CNT) is a monthly daily mean temperature series constructed from homogenized time series from the centre of the Netherlands. The purpose of this series is to offer a homogeneous time series representative of a larger area in order to study large-scale temperature changes. It will also facilitate a comparison with climate models, which resolve similar scales. From 1906 onwards, temperature measurements in the Netherlands have been sufficiently standardized to construct a high-quality series. Long time series have been constructed by merging nearby stations and using the overlap to calibrate the differences. These long time series and a few time series of only a few decades in length have been subjected to a homogeneity analysis in which significant breaks and artificial trends have been corrected. Many of the detected breaks correspond to changes in the observations that are documented in the station metadata. This version of the CNT, to which we attach the version number 1.1, is constructed as the unweighted average of four stations (De Bilt, Winterswijk/Hupsel, Oudenbosch/Gilze-Rijen and Gemert/Volkel) with the stations Eindhoven and Deelen added from 1951 and 1958 onwards, respectively. The global gridded datasets used for detecting and attributing climate change are based on raw observational data. Although some homogeneity adjustments are made, these are not based on knowledge of local circumstances but only on statistical evidence. Despite this handicap, and the fact that these datasets use grid boxes that are far larger then the area associated with that of the Central Netherlands Temperature, the temperature interpolated to the CNT region shows a warming trend that is broadly consistent with the CNT trend in all of these datasets. The actual trends differ from the CNT trend up to 30 %, which highlights the need to base future global gridded temperature datasets on homogenized time series.

Description: Winter and summer blocking variability in the North Atlantic region – evidence from long-term observational and proxy data from southwestern Greenland Climate of the Past, 7, 543-555, 2011 Author(s): N. Rimbu and G. Lohmann We investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and distribution in connection with long-term observational and proxy records from southwestern Greenland. It is shown that warm (cold) conditions in southwestern Greenland during winter are related with high (low) blocking activity in the Greenland-Scandinavian region. The pattern of winter temperature-blocking variability is more complex than the blocking pattern associated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find, furthermore, that a North Atlantic blocking index is significantly correlated with seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Greenland ice cores. Both suggest a possible reconstruction of blocking variability in this region. During summer, high (low) blocking activity in the Euro-Atlantic region is associated with cold (warm) conditions in southwestern Greenland. We conclude that historical temperature records, as well as proxy data from Greenland, can be used to obtain information related to interannual and multidecadal variation of winter and summer blocking during past periods.

Description: The global ocean circulation on a retrograde rotating earth Climate of the Past, 7, 487-499, 2011 Author(s): V. Kamphuis, S. E. Huisman, and H. A. Dijkstra To understand the three-dimensional ocean circulation patterns that have occurred in past continental geometries, it is crucial to study the role of the present-day continental geometry and surface (wind stress and buoyancy) forcing on the present-day global ocean circulation. This circulation, often referred to as the Conveyor state, is characterised by an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) with a deep water formation at northern latitudes and the absence of such a deep water formation in the North Pacific. This MOC asymmetry is often attributed to the difference in surface freshwater flux: the Atlantic as a whole is a basin with net evaporation, while the Pacific receives net precipitation. This issue is revisited in this paper by considering the global ocean circulation on a retrograde rotating earth, computing an equilibrium state of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice model CCSM3. The Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is indeed reversed, but the ocean circulation pattern is not an Inverse Conveyor state (with deep water formation in the North Pacific) as there is relatively weak but intermittently strong deep water formation in the North Atlantic. Using a fully-implicit, global ocean-only model the stability properties of the Atlantic MOC on a retrograde rotating earth are also investigated, showing a similar regime of multiple equilibria as in the present-day case. These results indicate that the present-day asymmetry in surface freshwater flux is not the most important factor setting the Atlantic-Pacific salinity difference and, thereby, the asymmetry in the global MOC.

Description: Holocene vegetation and biomass changes on the Tibetan Plateau – a model-pollen data comparison Climate of the Past, 7, 881-901, 2011 Author(s): A. Dallmeyer, M. Claussen, U. Herzschuh, and N. Fischer Results of a transient numerical experiment performed in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model with orbital forcing alone are compared to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions covering the last 6000 yr from four representative sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Causes of the vegetation change and consequences of the biomass storage are analysed. In general, simulated and reconstructed vegetation trends at each site are in good agreement. Both methods reveal a general retreat of the biomass-rich vegetation that is particularly manifested in a strong decrease of forests. However, model and reconstructions often differ with regard to the climatic factors causing the vegetation change at each site. The reconstructions primarily identify decreasing summer monsoon precipitation and changes in the temperature of the warm season as the responsible mechanisms for the vegetation shift. In the model, the land cover change mainly originates from differences in warm/cold seasonal temperatures and only to a lesser extent from precipitation changes. According to the model results, the averaged forest fraction on the Plateau shrinks by almost one-third from mid-Holocene (41.4 %) to present-day (28.3 %). Shrubs, whose fraction is quadrupled at present-day (12.3 %), replace most of this forest. Grass fraction increases from 38.1 % during the mid-Holocene to 42.3 % at present-day. This land cover change results in a decrease of living biomass by 0.62 kgC m −2 . Total biomass on the Tibetan Plateau decreases by 1.9 kgC m −2 , i.e. approx. 6.64 PgC are released due to the natural land cover change.

Description: Weakened atmospheric energy transport feedback in cold glacial climates Climate of the Past, 7, 1061-1073, 2011 Author(s): I. Cvijanovic, P. L. Langen, and E. Kaas The response of atmospheric energy transport during Northern Hemisphere cooling and warming from present day (PD) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions is investigated using sea surface temperature anomalies derived from a freshwater hosing experiment. The present day climate shows enhanced sensitivity of the atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the LGM, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that may arise from changes in the oceanic transport. This effect is found to be a result of both the atmospheric and surface flux response. The increased PD transport sensitivity relative to that of the LGM is linked to a stronger dry static energy transport response which, in turn, is mainly driven by larger changes in the transient eddy heat flux. In comparison, changes in mid-latitude latent heat transport play a minor role in the overall transport sensitivity.

Description: Uncertainties in modelling CH 4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters Climate of the Past, 7, 1075-1087, 2011 Author(s): C. Berrittella and J. van Huissteden Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH 4 , although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH 4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH 4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH 4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH 4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH 4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG) wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH 4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO 2 /CH 4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport ( f ox ), vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol P max ), plant transport rate ( V transp ), maximum rooting depth ( Z root ) and root exudation rate ( f ex ). Our model results show that modelled CH 4 fluxes are sensitive to f ox and Z root in particular. The effects of P max , V transp and f ex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for V transp . We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming dominance of one vegetation type ( Sphagnum vs. Carex vs. Shrubs ) show that Carex -dominated vegetation can increase CH 4 emissions by 50% to 78% over Sphagnum -dominated vegetation depending on the modelled climate, while for shrubs this increase ranges from 42% to 72%. Consequently, during the LG northern wetlands may have had CH 4 emissions similar to their present-day counterparts, despite a colder climate. Changes in dominant wetland vegetation, therefore, may drive changes in wetland CH 4 fluxes, in the past as well as in the future.

Description: The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model Climate of the Past, 7, 1169-1188, 2011 Author(s): M. Krapp and J. H. Jungclaus We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO 2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO 2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate, also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However, we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead, a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics, therefore, does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene.

Description: Corrigendum to "Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study" published in Clim. Past, 7, 1103–1122, 2011 Climate of the Past, 7, 1149-1168, 2011 Author(s): F. Adloff, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Kučera, R. Grimm, E. Maier-Reimer, G. Schmiedl, and K.-C. Emeis Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Description: Glacial-interglacial vegetation dynamics in South Eastern Africa coupled to sea surface temperature variations in the Western Indian Ocean Climate of the Past, 7, 1209-1224, 2011 Author(s): L. M. Dupont, T. Caley, J.-H. Kim, I. Castañeda, B. Malaizé, and J. Giraudeau Glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the vegetation of South Africa might elucidate the climate system at the edge of the tropics between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, vegetation records covering a full glacial cycle have only been published from the eastern South Atlantic. We present a pollen record of the marine core MD96-2048 retrieved by the Marion Dufresne from the Indian Ocean ∼120 km south of the Limpopo River mouth. The sedimentation at the site is slow and continuous. The upper 6 m (spanning the past 342 Ka) have been analysed for pollen and spores at millennial resolution. The terrestrial pollen assemblages indicate that during interglacials, the vegetation of eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique largely consisted of evergreen and deciduous forests. During glacials open mountainous scrubland dominated. Montane forest with Podocarpus extended during humid periods was favoured by strong local insolation. Correlation with the sea surface temperature record of the same core indicates that the extension of mountainous scrubland primarily depends on sea surface temperatures of the Agulhas Current. Our record corroborates terrestrial evidence of the extension of open mountainous scrubland (including fynbos-like species of the high-altitude Grassland biome) for the last glacial as well as for other glacial periods of the past 300 Ka.

Description: Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene Climate of the Past, 7, 1189-1207, 2011 Author(s): D. Ackerley, A. Lorrey, J. A. Renwick, S. J. Phipps, S. Wagner, S. Dean, J. Singarayer, P. Valdes, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. Ohgaito, and J. M. Jones Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

Description: Past surface temperatures at the NorthGRIP drill site from the difference in firn diffusion of water isotopes Climate of the Past, 7, 1327-1335, 2011 Author(s): S. B. Simonsen, S. J. Johnsen, T. J. Popp, B. M. Vinther, V. Gkinis, and H. C. Steen-Larsen A new ice core paleothermometer is introduced based on the temperature dependent diffusion of the stable water isotopes in the firn. A new parameter called differential diffusion length is defined as the difference between the diffusion length of the two stable water isotopologues 2 H 1 H 16 O and 1 H 2 18 O. A model treatment of the diffusion process of the firn and the ice is presented along with a method of retrieving the diffusion signal from the ice core record of water isotopes using spectral methods. The model shows how the diffusion process is highly dependent on the inter-annual variations in the surface temperatures. It results in a diffusion length longer than if the firn was isothermal. The longer diffusion length can be explained by the strong nonlinearly behaviour of the saturation pressure over ice in the range of the surface temperature fluctuations. The method has been tested on δ 18 O and δD measurements, spanning the transition from the last glacial to the holocene, from the NorthGRIP ice core. The surface temperature reconstruction based on the differential diffusion resembles other temperature reconstructions for the NorthGRIP ice core. However, the Allerød warming is seen to be significantly warmer than observed in other ice core based temperature reconstructions. The mechanisms behind this behaviour are not fully understood. The method shows the need of an expansion of high resolution stable water isotope datasets from ice cores. However, the new ice core paleothermometer presented here will give valuable insight into past climate, through the physical process of isotope diffusion in the firn column of ice sheets.

Description: Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling Climate of the Past, 7, 1225-1246, 2011 Author(s): G. Levavasseur, M. Vrac, D. M. Roche, D. Paillard, A. Martin, and J. Vandenberghe We quantify the agreement between permafrost distributions from PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) climate models and permafrost data. We evaluate the ability of several climate models to represent permafrost and assess the variability between their results. Studying a heterogeneous variable such as permafrost implies conducting analysis at a smaller spatial scale compared with climate models resolution. Our approach consists of applying statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) on large- or regional-scale atmospheric variables provided by climate models, leading to local-scale permafrost modelling. Among the SDMs, we first choose a transfer function approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to produce high-resolution climatology of air temperature at the surface. Then we define permafrost distribution over Eurasia by air temperature conditions. In a first validation step on present climate (CTRL period), this method shows some limitations with non-systematic improvements in comparison with the large-scale fields. So, we develop an alternative method of statistical downscaling based on a Multinomial Logistic GAM (ML-GAM), which directly predicts the occurrence probabilities of local-scale permafrost. The obtained permafrost distributions appear in a better agreement with CTRL data. In average for the nine PMIP2 models, we measure a global agreement with CTRL permafrost data that is better when using ML-GAM than when applying the GAM method with air temperature conditions. In both cases, the provided local information reduces the variability between climate models results. This also confirms that a simple relationship between permafrost and the air temperature only is not always sufficient to represent local-scale permafrost. Finally, we apply each method on a very different climate, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) time period, in order to quantify the ability of climate models to represent LGM permafrost. The prediction of the SDMs (GAM and ML-GAM) is not significantly in better agreement with LGM permafrost data than large-scale fields. At the LGM, both methods do not reduce the variability between climate models results. We show that LGM permafrost distribution from climate models strongly depends on large-scale air temperature at the surface. LGM simulations from climate models lead to larger differences with LGM data than in the CTRL period. These differences reduce the contribution of downscaling.

Description: Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes Climate of the Past, 7, 1297-1306, 2011 Author(s): J. Álvarez-Solas, M. Montoya, C. Ritz, G. Ramstein, S. Charbit, C. Dumas, K. Nisancioglu, T. Dokken, and A. Ganopolski Heinrich events, identified as enhanced ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in North Atlantic deep sea sediments (Heinrich, 1988; Hemming, 2004) have classically been attributed to Laurentide ice-sheet (LIS) instabilities (MacAyeal, 1993; Calov et al., 2002; Hulbe et al., 2004) and assumed to lead to important disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation. However, recent paleoclimate data have revealed that most of these events probably occurred after the AMOC had already slowed down or/and NADW largely collapsed, within about a thousand years (Hall et al., 2006; Hemming, 2004; Jonkers et al., 2010; Roche et al., 2004), implying that the initial AMOC reduction could not have been caused by the Heinrich events themselves. Here we propose an alternative driving mechanism, specifically for Heinrich event 1 (H1; 18 to 15 ka BP), by which North Atlantic ocean circulation changes are found to have strong impacts on LIS dynamics. By combining simulations with a coupled climate model and a three-dimensional ice sheet model, our study illustrates how reduced NADW and AMOC weakening lead to a subsurface warming in the Nordic and Labrador Seas resulting in rapid melting of the Hudson Strait and Labrador ice shelves. Lack of buttressing by the ice shelves implies a substantial ice-stream acceleration, enhanced ice-discharge and sea level rise, with peak values 500–1500 yr after the initial AMOC reduction. Our scenario modifies the previous paradigm of H1 by solving the paradox of its occurrence during a cold surface period, and highlights the importance of taking into account the effects of oceanic circulation on ice-sheets dynamics in order to elucidate the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events.

Description: Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970 Climate of the Past, 7, 1307-1326, 2011 Author(s): O. Wetter and C. Pfister This paper presents a unique 517-yr long documentary data-based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and south-western Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are partly based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), partly on (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774–1824 for calibration ( r = 0.78) and from 1920–1970 for verification ( r = 0.75). The latter result even suffers from the weak data base available for 1870–1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentary-based GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

Description: Hydrological variability in the Northern Levant: a 250 ka multiproxy record from the Yammoûneh (Lebanon) sedimentary sequence Climate of the Past, 7, 1261-1284, 2011 Author(s): F. Gasse, L. Vidal, A.-L. Develle, and E. Van Campo The Levant is a key region in terms of both long-term hydroclimate dynamics and human cultural evolution. Our understanding of the regional response to glacial-interglacial boundary conditions is limited by uncertainties in proxy-data interpretation and the lack of long-term records from different geographical settings. The present paper provides a 250 ka paleoenvironmental reconstruction based on a multi-proxy approach from northern Levant, derived from a 36 m lacustrine-palustrine sequence cored in the small intra-mountainous karstic Yammoûneh basin from northern Lebanon. We combined time series of sediment properties, paleovegetation, and carbonate oxygen isotopes (δ c ), to yield a comprehensive view of paleohydrologic-paleoclimatic fluctuations in the basin over the two last glacial-interglacial cycles. Integration of all available proxies shows that Interglacial maxima (early-mid MIS 7, MIS 5.5 and early MIS 1) experienced relatively high effective moisture, evidenced by the dominance of forested landscapes (although with different forest types) associated with authigenic carbonate sedimentation in a productive waterbody. Synchronous and steep δ c increases can be reconciled with enhanced mean annual moisture when changes in seasonality are taken into account. During Glacials periods (MIS 2 and MIS 6), open vegetation tends to replace the forests, favouring local erosion and detrital sedimentation. However, all proxy data reveal an overall wetting during MIS 6, while a drying trend took place during MIS4-2, leading to extremely harsh LGM conditions possibly linked to water storage as ice in the surrounding highlands. Over the past 250 ka, the Yammoûneh record shows an overall decrease in local effective water, coincident with a weakening of seasonal insolation contrasts linked to the decreasing amplitude of the eccentricity cycle. The Yammoûneh record is roughly consistent with long-term climatic fluctuations in the northeastern Mediterranean region (except during MIS 6). It suggests that the role of seasonality on effective moisture, already highlighted for MIS 1, also explains older interglacial climate. The Yammoûneh record shares some features with speleothem isotope records of western Israel, while the Dead Sea basin generally evolved in opposite directions. Changes in atmospheric circulation, regional topographic patterns and site-specific hydrological factors are invoked as potential causes of spatial heterogeneities. Further work is needed to refine the Yammoûneh chronology, better understand its functioning through hydrological and climate modelling, and acquire other long records from northern Levant to disentangle the relative effects of local versus regional factors.

Description: NALPS: a precisely dated European climate record 120–60 ka Climate of the Past, 7, 1247-1259, 2011 Author(s): R. Boch, H. Cheng, C. Spötl, R. L. Edwards, X. Wang, and Ph. Häuselmann Accurate and precise chronologies are essential in understanding the rapid and recurrent climate variations of the Last Glacial – known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events – found in the Greenland ice cores and other climate archives. The existing chronological uncertainties during the Last Glacial, however, are still large. Radiometric age data and stable isotopic signals from speleothems are promising to improve the absolute chronology. We present a record of several precisely dated stalagmites from caves located at the northern rim of the Alps (NALPS), a region that favours comparison with the climate in Greenland. The record covers most of the interval from 120 to 60 ka at an average temporal resolution of 2 to 22 yr and 2σ-age uncertainties of ca. 200 to 500 yr. The rapid and large oxygen isotope shifts of 1 to 4.5‰ occurred within decades to centuries and strongly mimic the Greenland D-O pattern. Compared to the updated Greenland ice-core timescale (GICC05modelext) the NALPS record confirms the timing of rapid warming and cooling transitions between 118 and 106 ka, but suggests younger ages for D-O events between 106 and 60 ka. As an exception, the timing of the rapid transitions into and out of the stadial following GI 22 is earlier in NALPS than in the Greenland ice-core timescale. In addition, there is a discrepancy in the duration of this stadial between the ice-core and the stalagmite chronology (ca. 2900 vs. 3650 yr). The short-lived D-O events 18 and 18.1 are not recorded in NALPS, provoking questions with regard to the nature and the regional expression of these events. NALPS resolves recurrent short-lived climate changes within the cold Greenland stadial and warm interstadial successions, i.e. abrupt warming events preceding GI 21 and 23 (precursor-type events) and at the end of GI 21 and 25 (rebound-type events), as well as intermittent cooling events during GI 22 and 24. Such superimposed events have not yet been documented outside Greenland.

Description: High-latitude obliquity as a dominant forcing in the Agulhas current system Climate of the Past, 7, 1285-1296, 2011 Author(s): T. Caley, J.-H. Kim, B. Malaizé, J. Giraudeau, T. Laepple, N. Caillon, K. Charlier, H. Rebaubier, L. Rossignol, I. S. Castañeda, S. Schouten, and J. S. Sinninghe Damsté The Agulhas Current transport of heat and salt from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic around South Africa (Agulhas leakage), can affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and, thus, influence global climate. However, efforts to elucidate forcing mechanisms connecting the Agulhas leakage with the upstream dynamics of the current have been hampered by a lack of climate records extracted from the area where the Agulhas current originates. We determine 800-kyr sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) records from the "precursor" region of the Agulhas current and show that these records contain strong 100-kyr and 41-kyr cycles. This latter obliquity-driven cycle is nearly in phase with changes in the annual mean insolation and air temperature at high southern latitudes. In contrast, our SST and SSS records did not reveal precession-driven cycles, which is surprising given the low-latitude location of the upstream Agulhas current. Together, this indicates that the dynamics of the Agulhas current system is mainly controlled by high latitude obliquity through its influence on the position of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical front (STF) and its associated westerlies. Our study demonstrates that obliquity may drive an important part of the 100 kyr cycles observed in the system rather than precession. Our results also suggest that a stronger Agulhas current, associated with a northward shift of the wind system during glacial periods, leads to reduced leakage, in accordance with the theory. We argue that during terminations, stronger Agulhas leakage of heat and salt was triggered by increased obliquity exerting a positive feedback on the global climate system through modulating long-term AMOC variations.

Description: The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period Climate of the Past, 7, 1089-1101, 2011 Author(s): F. S. R. Pausata, C. Li, J. J. Wettstein, M. Kageyama, and K. H. Nisancioglu The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr before present) was a period of low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, when vast ice sheets covered large parts of North America and Europe. Paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling studies suggest that the atmospheric circulation was substantially altered compared to today, both in terms of its mean state and its variability. Here we present a suite of coupled model simulations designed to investigate both the separate and combined influences of the main LGM boundary condition changes (greenhouse gases, ice sheet topography and ice sheet albedo) on the mean state and variability of the atmospheric circulation as represented by sea level pressure (SLP) and 200-hPa zonal wind in the North Atlantic sector. We find that ice sheet topography accounts for most of the simulated changes during the LGM. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet albedo affect the SLP gradient in the North Atlantic, but the overall placement of high and low pressure centers is controlled by topography. Additional analysis shows that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and sea ice edge position do not substantially influence the pattern of the climatological-mean SLP field, SLP variability or the position of the North Atlantic jet in the LGM.

Description: Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study Climate of the Past, 7, 1103-1122, 2011 Author(s): F. Adloff, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Kučera, R. Grimm, E. Maier-Reimer, G. Schmiedl, and K.-C. Emeis Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Description: Interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric radiocarbon reveals natural variability of Southern Ocean winds Climate of the Past, 7, 1123-1138, 2011 Author(s): K. B. Rodgers, S. E. Mikaloff-Fletcher, D. Bianchi, C. Beaulieu, E. D. Galbraith, A. Gnanadesikan, A. G. Hogg, D. Iudicone, B. R. Lintner, T. Naegler, P. J. Reimer, J. L. Sarmiento, and R. D. Slater Tree ring Δ 14 C data (Reimer et al., 2004; McCormac et al., 2004) indicate that atmospheric Δ 14 C varied on multi-decadal to centennial timescales, in both hemispheres, over the period between AD 950 and 1830. The Northern and Southern Hemispheric Δ 14 C records display similar variability, but from the data alone is it not clear whether these variations are driven by the production of 14 C in the stratosphere (Stuiver and Quay, 1980) or by perturbations to exchanges between carbon reservoirs (Siegenthaler et al., 1980). As the sea-air flux of 14 CO 2 has a clear maximum in the open ocean regions of the Southern Ocean, relatively modest perturbations to the winds over this region drive significant perturbations to the interhemispheric gradient. In this study, model simulations are used to show that Southern Ocean winds are likely a main driver of the observed variability in the interhemispheric gradient over AD 950–1830, and further, that this variability may be larger than the Southern Ocean wind trends that have been reported for recent decades (notably 1980–2004). This interpretation also implies that there may have been a significant weakening of the winds over the Southern Ocean within a few decades of AD 1375, associated with the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The driving forces that could have produced such a shift in the winds at the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition remain unknown. Our process-focused suite of perturbation experiments with models raises the possibility that the current generation of coupled climate and earth system models may underestimate the natural background multi-decadal- to centennial-timescale variations in the winds over the Southern Ocean.

Description: Modeling Mediterranean Ocean climate of the Last Glacial Maximum Climate of the Past, 7, 161-180, 2011 Author(s): U. Mikolajewicz A regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean is used to study the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric forcing for these simulations has been derived from simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, which in turn was forced with surface conditions from a coarse resolution earth system model. The model is successful in reproducing the general patterns of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies with the strongest cooling in summer in the northwestern Mediterranean and weak cooling in the Levantine, although the model underestimates the extent of the summer cooling in the western Mediterranean. However, there is a strong vertical gradient associated with this pattern of summer cooling, which makes the comparison with reconstructions complicated. The exchange with the Atlantic is decreased to roughly one half of its present value, which can be explained by the shallower Strait of Gibraltar as a consequence of lower global sea level. This reduced exchange causes a strong increase of salinity in the Mediterranean in spite of reduced net evaporation.

Description: Clouds and the Faint Young Sun Paradox Climate of the Past, 7, 203-220, 2011 Author(s): C. Goldblatt and K. J. Zahnle We investigate the role which clouds could play in resolving the Faint Young Sun Paradox (FYSP). Lower solar luminosity in the past means that less energy was absorbed on Earth (a forcing of −50 W m −2 during the late Archean), but geological evidence points to the Earth having been at least as warm as it is today, with only very occasional glaciations. We perform radiative calculations on a single global mean atmospheric column. We select a nominal set of three layered, randomly overlapping clouds, which are both consistent with observed cloud climatologies and reproduced the observed global mean energy budget of Earth. By varying the fraction, thickness, height and particle size of these clouds we conduct a wide exploration of how changed clouds could affect climate, thus constraining how clouds could contribute to resolving the FYSP. Low clouds reflect sunlight but have little greenhouse effect. Removing them entirely gives a forcing of +25 W m −2 whilst more modest reduction in their efficacy gives a forcing of +10 to +15 W m −2 . For high clouds, the greenhouse effect dominates. It is possible to generate +50 W m −2 forcing from enhancing these, but this requires making them 3.5 times thicker and 14 K colder than the standard high cloud in our nominal set and expanding their coverage to 100% of the sky. Such changes are not credible. More plausible changes would generate no more than +15 W m −2 forcing. Thus neither fewer low clouds nor more high clouds can provide enough forcing to resolve the FYSP. Decreased surface albedo can contribute no more than +5 W m −2 forcing. Some models which have been applied to the FYSP do not include clouds at all. These overestimate the forcing due to increased CO 2 by 20 to 25% when p CO 2 is 0.01 to 0.1 bar.

Description: North Atlantic abrupt climatic events of the last glacial period recorded in Ukrainian loess deposits Climate of the Past, 7, 221-234, 2011 Author(s): D.-D. Rousseau, P. Antoine, N. Gerasimenko, A. Sima, M. Fuchs, C. Hatté, O. Moine, and L. Zoeller Loess deposits are widely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere, where they have recorded not only the glacial-interglacial cycles, but also millennial-timescale changes resembling those in marine and ice cores. Such abrupt variations are clearly marked in western European series, but have not yet been evidenced in the East of the continent. Here we present results of the high-resolution investigation of a Weichselian Upper Pleniglacial loess sequence (~38–15 ka) from Stayky, Ukraine. The stratigraphy shows an alternation of loess horizons and embryonic soils, similar to sequences from western Europe. Similarities are also found between variations of a grain-size index (ratio between coarse and fine material fractions) in Stayky and in western European profiles. Based on these similarities and in agreement with the luminescence dates, the embryonic soils are associated with the Greenland interstadials (GIS) 7 to 2, and the Vytachiv paleosol at the base of the sequence, with GIS 8. Pollen analysis indicates a wetter climate for these interstadials, allowing the development of arboreal vegetation, than for the stadials, which are marked by loess formation. The grain-size index reaches the highest values for intervals correlated with the Heinrich events 3 and 2. Thus, it appears that the North Atlantic abrupt climate changes have extended their influence and modulated the loess sedimentation at least as far as eastern Europe. This result is supported by recent climate modeling experiments and recommends the Stayky sequence as a reference for further comparisons between profiles along the Eurasian loess belt centered at 50° N.

Description: Corrigendum to "Thirty thousand years of vegetation development and climate change in Angola (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1078)" published in Clim. Past, 4, 107–124, 2008 Climate of the Past, 7, 115-115, 2011 Author(s): L. M. Dupont, H. Behling, and J.-H. Kim No abstract available.

Description: Can oceanic paleothermometers reconstruct the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation? Climate of the Past, 7, 151-159, 2011 Author(s): D. Heslop and A. Paul Instrumental records of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reveal a large-scale low frequency mode of variability that has become known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Proxy and modelling studies have demonstrated the important consequences of the AMO on other components of the climate system both within and outside the Atlantic region. Over longer time scales, the past behavior of the AMO is predominantly constrained by terrestrial proxies and only a limited number of records are available from the marine realm itself. Here we use an Earth System-Climate Model of intermediate complexity to simulate AMO-type behavior in the Atlantic with a specific focus placed on the ability of ocean paleothermometers to capture the associated surface and subsurface temperature variability. Given their lower prediction errors and annual resolution, coral-based proxies of sea surface temperature appear to be capable of reconstructing the temperature variations associated with the past AMO with an adequate signal-to-noise ratio. In contrast, the relatively high prediction error and low temporal resolution of sediment-based proxies, such as the composition of foraminiferal calcite, limits their ability to produce interpretable records of past temperature anomalies corresponding to AMO activity. Whilst the presented results will inevitably be model-dependent to some degree, the statistical framework is model-independent and can be applied to a wide variety of scenarios.

Description: Refugia of marine fish in the northeast Atlantic during the last glacial maximum: concordant assessment from archaeozoology and palaeotemperature reconstructions Climate of the Past, 7, 181-201, 2011 Author(s): A. J. Kettle, A. Morales-Muñiz, E. Roselló-Izquierdo, D. Heinrich, and L. A. Vøllestad Archaeozoological finds of the remains of marine and amphihaline fish from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ca. 21 ka ago show evidence of very different species ranges compared to the present. We have shown how an ecological niche model (ENM) based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions of sea surface temperature and bathymetry can be used to effectively predict the spatial range of marine fish during the LGM. The results indicate that the ranges of marine fish species now in northwestern Europe were displaced significantly southwards from the modern distribution, challenging an existing paradigm of marine glacial refugia. The model presents strong evidence that there was an invasion of important fish through the Straits of Gibraltar in glacial times, where they were exploited by Palaeolithic human populations around the western Mediterranean Sea. The ENM results are important for ongoing studies of molecular ecology that aim to assess marine glacial refugia from the genetic structure of living populations, and they pose questions about the genetic identity of vanished marine populations during the LGM. Economically, the approach may be used to understand how the ranges of exploited fish species may be displaced with the future climate warming. The research presents a challenge for future archaeozoological work to delimit the glacial refugia and to verify palaeoclimatic reconstructions based on deep-sea core records.

Description: Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model Climate of the Past, 7, 249-263, 2011 Author(s): A. Voigt, D. S. Abbot, R. T. Pierrehumbert, and J. Marotzke We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (~635 million years before present) with the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This is the most sophisticated model ever applied to Snowball initiation. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global-mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI), whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI) is prevented by doubling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global-mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. While uncertainties in important processes and parameters such as clouds and sea-ice albedo suggest that the Snowball Earth bifurcation point differs between climate models, our results contradict previous findings that Snowball Earth initiation would require much stronger forcings.

Description: Ultra-high resolution pollen record from the northern Andes reveals rapid shifts in montane climates within the last two glacial cycles Climate of the Past, 7, 299-316, 2011 Author(s): M. H. M. Groot, R. G. Bogotá, L. J. Lourens, H. Hooghiemstra, M. Vriend, J. C. Berrio, E. Tuenter, J. Van der Plicht, B. Van Geel, M. Ziegler, S. L. Weber, A. Betancourt, L. Contreras, S. Gaviria, C. Giraldo, N. González, J. H. F. Jansen, M. Konert, D. Ortega, O. Rangel, G. Sarmiento, J. Vandenberghe, T. Van der Hammen, M. Van der Linden, and W. Westerhoff Here we developed a composite pollen-based record of altitudinal vegetation changes from Lake Fúquene (5° N) in Colombia at 2540 m elevation. We quantitatively calibrated Arboreal Pollen percentages (AP%) into mean annual temperature (MAT) changes with an unprecedented ~60-year resolution over the past 284 000 years. An age model for the AP% record was constructed using frequency analysis in the depth domain and tuning of the distinct obliquity-related variations to the latest marine oxygen isotope stacked record. The reconstructed MAT record largely concurs with the ~100 and 41-kyr (obliquity) paced glacial cycles and is superimposed by extreme changes of up to 7 to 10° Celsius within a few hundred years at the major glacial terminations and during marine isotope stage 3, suggesting an unprecedented North Atlantic – equatorial link. Using intermediate complexity transient climate modelling experiments, we demonstrate that ice volume and greenhouse gasses are the major forcing agents causing the orbital-related MAT changes, while direct precession-induced insolation changes had no significant impact on the high mountain vegetation during the last two glacial cycles.

Description: A regional ocean circulation model for the mid-Cretaceous North Atlantic Basin: implications for black shale formation Climate of the Past, 7, 277-297, 2011 Author(s): R. P. M. Topper, J. Trabucho Alexandre, E. Tuenter, and P. Th. Meijer High concentrations of organic matter accumulated in marine sediments during Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) in the Cretaceous. Model studies examining these events invariably make use of global ocean circulation models. In this study, a regional model for the North Atlantic Basin during OAE2 at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary has been developed. A first order check of the results has been performed by comparison with the results of a recent global Cenomanian CCSM3 run, from which boundary and initial conditions were obtained. The regional model is able to maintain tracer patterns and to produce velocity patterns similar to the global model. The sensitivity of the basin tracer and circulation patterns to changes in the geometry of the connections with the global ocean is examined with three experiments with different bathymetries near the sponges. Different geometries turn out to have little effect on tracer distribution, but do affect circulation and upwelling patterns. The regional model is also used to test the hypothesis that ocean circulation may have been behind the deposition of black shales during OAEs. Three scenarios are tested which are thought to represent pre-OAE, OAE and post-OAE situations. Model results confirm that Pacific intermediate inflow together with coastal upwelling could have enhanced primary production during OAE2. A low sea level in the pre-OAE scenario could have inhibited large scale black shale formation, as could have the opening of the Equatorial Atlantic Seaway in the post-OAE scenario.

Description: Corrigendum to "Refugia of marine fish in the northeast Atlantic during the last glacial maximum: concordant assessment from archaeozoology and palaeotemperature reconstructions" published in Clim. Past, 7, 181–201, 2011 Climate of the Past, 7, 317-317, 2011 Author(s): A. J. Kettle, A. Morales-Muñiz, E. Roselló-Izquierdo, D. Heinrich, and L. A. Vøllestad No abstract available.

Description: The effect of a dynamic background albedo scheme on Sahel/Sahara precipitation during the mid-Holocene Climate of the Past, 7, 117-131, 2011 Author(s): F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen We have implemented a new albedo scheme that takes the dynamic behaviour of the surface below the canopy into account, into the land-surface scheme of the MPI-ESM. The standard (static) scheme calculates the seasonal canopy albedo as a function of leaf area index, whereas the background albedo is a gridbox constant derived from satellite measurements. The new (dynamic) scheme additionally models the background albedo as a slowly changing function of organic matter in the ground and of litter and standing dead biomass covering the ground. We use the two schemes to investigate the interactions between vegetation, albedo and precipitation in the Sahel/Sahara for two time-slices: pre-industrial and mid-Holocene. The dynamic scheme represents the seasonal cycle of albedo and the correspondence between annual mean albedo and vegetation cover in a more consistent way than the static scheme. It thus gives a better estimate of albedo change between the two time periods. With the introduction of the dynamic scheme, precipitation is increased by 30 mm yr −1 for the pre-industrial simulation and by about 80 mm yr −1 for the mid-Holocene simulation. The present-day dry bias in the Sahel of standard ECHAM5 is thus reduced and the sensitivity of precipitation to mid-Holocene external forcing is increased by around one third. The locations of mid-Holocene lakes, as estimated from reconstructions, lie south of the modelled desert border in both mid-Holocene simulations. The magnitude of simulated rainfall in this area is too low to fully sustain lakes, however it is captured better with the dynamic scheme. The dynamic scheme leads to increased vegetation variability in the remaining desert region, indicating a higher frequency of green spells, thus reaching a better agreement with the vegetation distribution as derived from pollen records.

Description: Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium Climate of the Past, 7, 133-150, 2011 Author(s): D. Hofer, C. C. Raible, and T. F. Stocker The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC) strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT) in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.

Description: Corrigendum to "Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11): analogue for present and future sea-level?" published in Clim. Past, 6, 19–29, 2010 Climate of the Past, 7, 63-63, 2011 Author(s): D. Q. Bowen No abstract available.

Description: Application of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) for assessing biogenic silica sample purity in geochemical analyses and palaeoenvironmental research Climate of the Past, 7, 65-74, 2011 Author(s): G. E. A. Swann and S. V. Patwardhan The development of a rapid and non-destructive method to assess purity levels in samples of biogenic silica prior to geochemical/isotope analysis remains a key objective in improving both the quality and use of such data in environmental and palaeoclimatic research. Here a Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) mass-balance method is demonstrated for calculating levels of contamination in cleaned sediment core diatom samples from Lake Baikal, Russia. Following the selection of end-members representative of diatoms and contaminants in the analysed samples, a mass-balance model is generated to simulate the expected FTIR spectra for a given level of contamination. By fitting the sample FTIR spectra to the modelled FTIR spectra and calculating the residual spectra, the optimum best-fit model and level of contamination is obtained. When compared to X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) the FTIR method portrays the main changes in sample contamination through the core sequence, permitting its use in instances where other, destructive, techniques are not appropriate. The ability to analyse samples of

Description: A comparison of climate simulations for the last glacial maximum with three different versions of the ECHAM model and implications for summer-green tree refugia Climate of the Past, 7, 91-114, 2011 Author(s): K. Arpe, S. A. G. Leroy, and U. Mikolajewicz Model simulations of the last glacial maximum (21 ± 2 ka) with the ECHAM3 T42 atmosphere-only, ECHAM5-MPIOM T31 atmosphere-ocean coupled and ECHAM5 T106 atmosphere-only models are compared. The topography, land-sea mask and glacier distribution for the ECHAM5 simulations were taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase II (PMIP2) data set while for ECHAM3 they were taken from PMIP1. The ECHAM5-MPIOM T31 model produced its own sea surface temperatures (SST) while the ECHAM5 T106 simulations were forced at the boundaries by this coupled model SSTs corrected from their present-day biases and the ECHAM3 T42 model was forced with prescribed SSTs provided by Climate/Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction project (CLIMAP). The SSTs in the ECHAM5-MPIOM simulation for the last glacial maximum (LGM) were much warmer in the northern Atlantic than those suggested by CLIMAP or Overview of Glacial Atlantic Ocean Mapping (GLAMAP) while the SSTs were cooler everywhere else. This had a clear effect on the temperatures over Europe, warmer for winters in western Europe and cooler for eastern Europe than the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs. Considerable differences in the general circulation patterns were found in the different simulations. A ridge over western Europe for the present climate during winter in the 500 hPa height field remains in both ECHAM5 simulations for the LGM, more so in the T106 version, while the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST simulation provided a trough which is consistent with cooler temperatures over western Europe. The zonal wind between 30° W and 10° E shows a southward shift of the polar and subtropical jets in the simulations for the LGM, least obvious in the ECHAM5 T31 one, and an extremely strong polar jet for the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST run. The latter can probably be assigned to the much stronger north-south gradient in the CLIMAP SSTs. The southward shift of the polar jet during the LGM is supported by palaeo-data. Cyclone tracks in winter represented by high precipitation are characterised over Europe for the present by a main branch from the British Isles to Norway and a secondary branch towards the Mediterranean Sea, observed and simulated. For the LGM the different models show very different solutions: the ECHAM3 CLIMAP-SST simulation shows just one track going eastward from the British Isles into central Europe, while the ECHAM5 T106 simulation still has two branches but during the LGM the main one goes to the Mediterranean Sea, with enhanced precipitation in the Levant. This agrees with an observed high stand of the Dead Sea during the LGM. For summer the ECHAM5 T106 simulation provides much more precipitation for the present over Europe than the other simulations, thus agreeing with estimates by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Also during the LGM this model makes Europe less arid than the other simulations. In many respects the ECHAM5 T106 simulation for the present is more realistic than the ECHAM5 T31 coupled simulation and the older ECHAM3 T42 simulation, when comparing them with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis or the GPCP precipitation data. For validating the model data for the LGM, pollen, wood and charcoal analyses were compared with possible summer-green tree growth from model estimates using summer precipitation, minimum winter temperatures and growing degree days (above 5 °C). The ECHAM5 T106 simulation suggests for more sites with findings of palaeo-data, likely tree growth during the LGM than the other simulations, especially over western Europe. The clear message especially from the ECHAM5 T106 simulation is that warm-loving summer-green trees could have survived mainly in Spain but also in Greece in agreement with findings of pollen or charcoal. Southern Italy is also suggested but this could not be validated because of absence of palaeo-data. Previous climate simulations of the LGM have suggested less cold and more humid climate than that reconstructed from pollen findings. Our model results do agree more or less with those of other models but we do not find a contradiction with palaeo-data because we use the pollen data directly without an intermediate reconstruction of temperatures and precipitation from the pollen spectra.

Description: Southern ocean warming, sea level and hydrological change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum Climate of the Past, 7, 47-61, 2011 Author(s): A. Sluijs, P. K. Bijl, S. Schouten, U. Röhl, G.-J. Reichart, and H. Brinkhuis A brief (~150 kyr) period of widespread global average surface warming marks the transition between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs, ~56 million years ago. This so-called "Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum" (PETM) is associated with the massive injection of 13 C-depleted carbon, reflected in a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Biotic responses include a global abundance peak (acme) of the subtropical dinoflagellate Apectodinium . Here we identify the PETM in a marine sedimentary sequence deposited on the East Tasman Plateau at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1172 and show, based on the organic paleothermometer TEX 86 , that southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures increased from ~26 °C to ~33°C during the PETM. Such temperatures before, during and after the PETM are 〉10 °C warmer than predicted by paleoclimate model simulations for this latitude. In part, this discrepancy may be explained by potential seasonal biases in the TEX 86 proxy in polar oceans. Additionally, the data suggest that not only Arctic, but also Antarctic temperatures may be underestimated in simulations of ancient greenhouse climates by current generation fully coupled climate models. An early influx of abundant Apectodinium confirms that environmental change preceded the CIE on a global scale. Organic dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest a local decrease in the amount of river run off reaching the core site during the PETM, possibly in concert with eustatic rise. Moreover, the assemblages suggest changes in seasonality of the regional hydrological system and storm activity. Finally, significant variation in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages during the PETM indicates that southwest Pacific climates varied significantly over time scales of 10 3 – 10 4 years during this event, a finding comparable to similar studies of PETM successions from the New Jersey Shelf.

Description: Sea-surface salinity variations in the northern Caribbean Sea across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition Climate of the Past, 7, 75-90, 2011 Author(s): S. Sepulcre, L. Vidal, K. Tachikawa, F. Rostek, and E. Bard By reconstructing past hydrologic variations in the Northern Caribbean Sea and their influence on the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the last 940 ka, we seek to document climate changes in this tropical area in response to the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Using core MD03-2628, we estimated past changes in sea surface salinity (SSS) using Δδ 18 O, the difference between the modern, and the past δ 18 O of seawater (obtained by combining alkenone thermometer data with the δ 18 O of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides rube (white) and corrected for ice-sheet volume effects). Today, the lowest SSS values in the area studied are associated with the northernmost location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The Δδ 18 O record obtained from core MD03-2628 exhibits glacial/interglacial cyclicity with higher values during all glacial periods spanning the last 940 ka, indicating increased SSS. A long-term trend was also observed in the Δδ 18 O values that exhibited a shift toward lower values for interglacial periods during the last 450 ka, as compared to interglacial stages older than 650 ka. A rise in SSS during glacial stages may be related to the southernmost location of the ITCZ, which is induced by a steeper cross-equator temperature gradient and associated with reduced northward cross-equatorial oceanic transport. Therefore, the results suggest a permanent link between the tropical salinity budget and the AMOC during the last 940 ka. Following the MPT, lower salinities during the last five interglacial stages indicated a northernmost ITCZ location that was forced by changes in the cross-equator temperature gradient and that was associated with the poleward position of Southern Oceanic Fronts that amplify the transport of heat and moisture to the North Atlantic. These processes may have contributed to the amplification of the climate cycles that followed the MPT.

Description: Impact of maximum borehole depths on inverted temperature histories in borehole paleoclimatology Climate of the Past, 7, 745-756, 2011 Author(s): H. Beltrami, J. E. Smerdon, G. S. Matharoo, and N. Nickerson A quantitative assessment is presented for the impact of the maximum depth of a temperature-depth profile on the estimate of the climatic transient and the resultant ground surface temperature (GST) reconstruction used in borehole paleoclimatology. The depth of the profile is important because the downwelling climatic signal must be separated from the quasi-steady state thermal regime established by the energy in the Earth's interior. This component of the signal is estimated as a linear increase in temperature with depth from the lower section of a borehole temperature profile, which is assumed to be unperturbed by recent changes in climate at the surface. The validity of this assumption is dependent on both the subsurface thermophysical properties and the character of the downwelling climatic signal. Such uncertainties can significantly impact the determination of the quasi-steady state thermal regime, and consequently the magnitude of the temperature anomaly interpreted as a climatic signal. The quantitative effects and uncertainties that arise from the analysis of temperature-depth profiles of different depths are presented. Results demonstrate that widely different GST histories can be derived from a single temperature profile truncated at different depths. Borehole temperature measurements approaching 500–600 m depths are shown to provide the most robust GST reconstructions spanning 500 to 1000 yr BP. It is further shown that the bias introduced by a temperature profile of depths shallower than 500–600 m remains even if the time span of the reconstruction target is shortened.

Description: Deep ocean ventilation, carbon isotopes, marine sedimentation and the deglacial CO 2 rise Climate of the Past, 7, 771-800, 2011 Author(s): T. Tschumi, F. Joos, M. Gehlen, and C. Heinze The link between the atmospheric CO 2 level and the ventilation state of the deep ocean is an important building block of the key hypotheses put forth to explain glacial-interglacial CO 2 fluctuations. In this study, we systematically examine the sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 and its carbon isotope composition to changes in deep ocean ventilation, the ocean carbon pumps, and sediment formation in a global 3-D ocean-sediment carbon cycle model. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that a break up of Southern Ocean stratification and invigorated deep ocean ventilation were the dominant drivers for the early deglacial CO 2 rise of ~35 ppm between the Last Glacial Maximum and 14.6 ka BP. Another rise of 10 ppm until the end of the Holocene is attributed to carbonate compensation responding to the early deglacial change in ocean circulation. Our reasoning is based on a multi-proxy analysis which indicates that an acceleration of deep ocean ventilation during early deglaciation is not only consistent with recorded atmospheric CO 2 but also with the reconstructed opal sedimentation peak in the Southern Ocean at around 16 ka BP, the record of atmospheric δ 13 C CO 2 , and the reconstructed changes in the Pacific CaCO 3 saturation horizon.

Description: Holocene evolution of summer winds and marine productivity in the tropical Indian Ocean in response to insolation forcing: data-model comparison Climate of the Past, 7, 815-829, 2011 Author(s): F. C. Bassinot, C. Marzin, P. Braconnot, O. Marti, E. Mathien-Blard, F. Lombard, and L. Bopp The relative abundance of Globigerinoides bulloides was used to infer Holocene paleo-productivity changes on the Oman margin and at the southern tip of India. Today, the primary productivity at both sites reaches its maximum during the summer season, when monsoon winds result in local Eckman pumping, which brings more nutrients to the surface. On a millennium time-scale, however, the % G. bulloides records indicate an opposite evolution of paleo-productivity at these sites through the Holocene. The Oman Margin productivity was maximal at ~9 ka (boreal summer insolation maximum) and has decreased since then, suggesting a direct response to insolation forcing. On the contrary, the productivity at the southern tip of India was minimum at ~9 ka, and strengthened towards the present. Paleo-reconstructions of wind patterns, marine productivity and foraminifera assemblages were obtained using the IPSL-CM4 climate model coupled to the PISCES marine biogeochemical model and the FORAMCLIM ecophysiological model. These reconstructions are fully coherent with the marine core data. They confirm that the evolution of particulate export production and foraminifera assemblages at our two sites were directly linked with the strength of the upwelling. Model simulations at 9 ka and 6 ka BP show that the relative evolution between the two sites since the early Holocene can be explained by the weakening but also the southward shift of monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea during boreal summer.

Description: Enhanced climate variability in the tropics: a 200 000 yr annual record of monsoon variability from Pangea's equator Climate of the Past, 7, 757-770, 2011 Author(s): R. Y. Anderson A continuous series of 209 000 evaporite varves from the equator of arid western Pangea (age = −255 ma), as a proxy for surface temperature, has a complete suite of Milankovitch cycles and harmonics as expected for a rectified reaction to precession-modulated insolation at the equator. Included are modes of precession (23.4 kyr, 18.2 kyr), semi-precession (11.7 kyr, 9.4 kyr), and harmonics at ~7 kyr and 5.4 kyr. An oscillation of ~100 kyr, with 35 % of total variance, originates as an amplitude modulation of precession cycles. An exceptionally strong 2.3 kyr quasi-bi-millennial oscillation (QBMO) appears to have had its own source of forcing, possibly solar, with its amplitude enhanced at Milankovitch frequencies. Seasonal information in varves traces the rectifying process to asymmetrical distribution of Pangea relative to the equator, and its effect on monsoonal circulation and heat flow near the equator during summer solstices in the hemispheres.

Description: Tropical seaways played a more important role than high latitude seaways in Cenozoic cooling Climate of the Past, 7, 801-813, 2011 Author(s): Z. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, F. Flatøy, M. Bentsen, I. Bethke, and H. Wang Following the Early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, ~55–50 Ma), climate deteriorated and gradually changed the earth from a greenhouse into an icehouse, with major cooling events at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary (∼34 Ma) and the Middle Miocene (∼15 Ma). It is believed that the opening of the Drake Passage had a marked impact on the cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. Based on an Early Eocene simulation, we study the sensitivity of climate and ocean circulation to tectonic events such as the closing of the West Siberian Seaway, the deepening of the Arctic-Atlantic Seaway, the opening of the Drake Passage, and the constriction of the Tethys and Central American seaways. The opening of the Drake Passage, together with the closing of the West Siberian Seaway and the deepening of the Arctic-Atlantic Seaway, weakened the Southern Ocean Deep Water (SODW) dominated ocean circulation and led to a weak cooling at high latitudes, thus contributing to the observed Early Cenozoic cooling. However, the later constriction of the Tethys and Central American Seaways is shown to give a strong cooling at southern high latitudes. This cooling was related to the transition of ocean circulation from a SODW-dominated mode to the modern-like ocean circulation dominated by North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW).

Description: Climate patterns in north central China during the last 1800 yr and their possible driving force Climate of the Past, 7, 685-692, 2011 Author(s): L. Tan, Y. Cai, Z. An, L. Yi, H. Zhang, and S. Qin We synthesized high-resolution precisely-dated stalagmite records and historical document records from north central China to reconstruct a decadal resolution precipitation record during the last 1800 years (190–1980 AD). The synthesized precipitation record shows coincident variations and significant positive correlations with the temperature reconstructions on centennial- to multidecadal-scale, suggesting warm-humid/cool-dry was the main climate pattern in north central China over the past 1800 years. Solar activity may be the dominant force that drove the same-phase variations of the temperature and precipitation in north central China.

Description: High carbon sequestration in Siberian permafrost loess-paleosols during glacials Climate of the Past, 7, 501-509, 2011 Author(s): R. Zech, Y. Huang, M. Zech, R. Tarozo, and W. Zech Recent findings show that the amount of organic carbon stored in high-latitude permafrost regions has been greatly underestimated. While concerns are rising that thawing permafrost and resultant CO 2 and methane emissions are a positive feedback mechanism at times of anthropogenic global warming, the potential role of permafrost carbon dynamics on glacial-interglacial timescales has received little attention. Here we present new results from a well-studied permafrost loess-paleosol sequence in north-east Siberia that almost spans two glacial cycles (~220 ka). We analysed the deuterium/hydrogen isotopic ratios (δD) of alkanes, which serve as proxy for paleo-temperature. Thus circumventing difficulties to obtain exact age control for such sequences, the results corroborate our previous notion that more soil organic carbon was sequestered during glacials than during interglacials. This fact highlights the role of permafrost in favouring preservation of soil organic matter. Reduced biomass production during glacials may have been of second-order importance on these timescales. Although future studies are needed to evaluate existing large estimates of carbon dioxide releases from thawing permafrost during the last termination (〉1000 Pg C), we suggest that permafrost carbon dynamics contributed to the observed glacial-interglacial variation in atmospheric CO 2 and need to be included in carbon cycle and climate models.

Description: Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the recent past Climate of the Past, 7, 511-526, 2011 Author(s): M. F. Loutre, A. Mouchet, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts Many sources of uncertainty limit the accuracy of climate projections. Among them, we focus here on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. Therefore, we use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity and vary several parameters within a range based on the expert judgement of model developers. Nine climatic parameter sets and three carbon cycle parameter sets are selected because they yield present-day climate simulations coherent with observations and they cover a wide range of climate responses to doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration and freshwater flux perturbation in the North Atlantic. Moreover, they also lead to a large range of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in response to prescribed emissions. Consequently, we have at our disposal 27 alternative versions of LOVECLIM (each corresponding to one parameter set) that provide very different responses to some climate forcings. The 27 model versions are then used to illustrate the range of responses provided over the recent past, to compare the time evolution of climate variables over the time interval for which they are available (the last few decades up to more than one century) and to identify the outliers and the "best" versions over that particular time span. For example, between 1979 and 2005, the simulated global annual mean surface temperature increase ranges from 0.24 °C to 0.64 °C, while the simulated increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration varies between 40 and 50 ppmv. Measurements over the same period indicate an increase in global annual mean surface temperature of 0.45 °C (Brohan et al., 2006) and an increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 44 ppmv (Enting et al., 1994; GLOBALVIEW-CO2, 2006). Only a few parameter sets yield simulations that reproduce the observed key variables of the climate system over the last decades. Furthermore, our results show that the model response, including its ocean component, is strongly influenced by the model sensitivity to an increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration but much less by its sensitivity to freshwater flux in the North Atlantic. They also highlight weaknesses of the model, in particular its large ocean heat uptake.

Description: Solar-forced shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies during the Holocene Climate of the Past, 7, 339-347, 2011 Author(s): V. Varma, M. Prange, F. Lamy, U. Merkel, and M. Schulz The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO 2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. In the present study, the possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. In addition, solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) were carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

Description: Simulated climate variability in the region of Rapa Nui during the last millennium Climate of the Past, 7, 579-586, 2011 Author(s): C. Junk and M. Claussen Rapa Nui, an isolated island in the Southeast Pacific, was settled by the Polynesians most likely around 1200 AD and was discovered by the Europeans in 1722 AD. While the Polynesians presumably found a profuse palm woodland on Rapa Nui, the Europeans faced a landscape dominated by grassland. Scientists have examined potential anthropogenic, biological and climatic induced vegetation changes on Rapa Nui. Here, we analyse observational climate data for the last decades and climate model results for the period 800–1750 AD to explore the potential for a climatic-induced vegetation change. A direct influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the climatic parameters of Rapa Nui could not be found in the model simulations. Furthermore, strong climatic trends from a warm Medieval Period to a Little Ice Age or rapid climatic fluctuations due to large volcanic eruptions were not verifiable for the Rapa Nui region, although they are detectable in the simulations for many regions world wide. Hence, we tentatively conclude that large-scale climate changes in the oceanic region around Rapa Nui might be too small to explain strong vegetation changes on the island over the last millennium.

Description: Model-dependence of the CO 2 threshold for melting the hard Snowball Earth Climate of the Past, 7, 17-25, 2011 Author(s): Y. Hu, J. Yang, F. Ding, and W. R. Peltier One of the critical issues of the Snowball Earth hypothesis is the CO 2 threshold for triggering the deglaciation. Using Community Atmospheric Model version 3.0 (CAM3), we study the problem for the CO 2 threshold. Our simulations show large differences from previous results (e.g. Pierrehumbert, 2004, 2005; Le Hir et al., 2007). At 0.2 bars of CO 2 , the January maximum near-surface temperature is about 268 K, about 13 K higher than that in Pierrehumbert (2004, 2005), but lower than the value of 270 K for 0.1 bar of CO 2 in Le Hir et al. (2007). It is found that the difference of simulation results is mainly due to model sensitivity of greenhouse effect and longwave cloud forcing to increasing CO 2 . At 0.2 bars of CO 2 , CAM3 yields 117 Wm −2 of clear-sky greenhouse effect and 32 Wm −2 of longwave cloud forcing, versus only about 77 Wm −2 and 10.5 Wm −2 in Pierrehumbert (2004, 2005), respectively. CAM3 has comparable clear-sky greenhouse effect to that in Le Hir et al. (2007), but lower longwave cloud forcing. CAM3 also produces much stronger Hadley cells than that in Pierrehumbert (2005). Effects of pressure broadening and collision-induced absorption are also studied using a radiative-convective model and CAM3. Both effects substantially increase surface temperature and thus lower the CO 2 threshold. The radiative-convective model yields a CO 2 threshold of about 0.21 bars with surface albedo of 0.663. Without considering the effects of pressure broadening and collision-induced absorption, CAM3 yields an approximate CO 2 threshold of about 1.0 bar for surface albedo of about 0.6. However, the threshold is lowered to 0.38 bars as both effects are considered.

Description: Oceanic tracer and proxy time scales revisited Climate of the Past, 7, 27-39, 2011 Author(s): C. Siberlin and C. Wunsch Quantifying time-responses of the ocean to tracer input is important to the interpretation of paleodata from sediment cores – because surface-injected tracers do not instantaneously spread throughout the ocean. To obtain insights into the time response, a computationally efficient state-transition matrix method is demonstrated and used to compute successive states of passive tracer concentrations in the global ocean. Times to equilibrium exceed a thousand years for regions of the global ocean outside of the injection and convective areas and concentration gradients give time-lags from hundreds to thousands of years between the Atlantic and Pacific abyss, depending on the injection region and the nature of the boundary conditions employed. Equilibrium times can be much longer than radiocarbon ages – both because the latter are strongly biased towards the youngest fraction of fluid captured in a sample, and because they represent distinct physical properties. Use of different boundary conditions – concentration, or flux – produces varying response times, with the latter depending directly upon pulse duration. With pulses, the sometimes very different transient approach to equilibrium in various parts of the ocean generates event identification problems.

Description: TALDICE-1 age scale of the Talos Dome deep ice core, East Antarctica Climate of the Past, 7, 1-16, 2011 Author(s): D. Buiron, J. Chappellaz, B. Stenni, M. Frezzotti, M. Baumgartner, E. Capron, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Montagnat, F. Parrenin, and A. Schilt A new deep ice core drilling program, TALDICE, has been successfully handled by a European team at Talos Dome, in the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica, down to 1620 m depth. Using stratigraphic markers and a new inverse method, we produce the first official chronology of the ice core, called TALDICE-1. We show that it notably improves an a priori chronology resulting from a one-dimensional ice flow model. It is in agreement with a posteriori controls of the resulting accumulation rate and thinning function along the core. An absolute uncertainty of only 300 yr is obtained over the course of the last deglaciation. This uncertainty remains lower than 600 yr over Marine Isotope Stage 3, back to 50 kyr BP. The phasing of the TALDICE ice core climate record with respect to the central East Antarctic plateau and Greenland records can thus be determined with a precision allowing for a discussion of the mechanisms at work at sub-millennial time scales.

Description: Early last glacial maximum in the southern Central Andes reveals northward shift of the westerlies at ~39 ka Climate of the Past, 7, 41-46, 2011 Author(s): R. Zech, J. Zech, Ch. Kull, P. W. Kubik, and H. Veit The latitudinal position of the southern westerlies has been suggested to be a key parameter for the climate on Earth. According to the general notion, the southern westerlies were shifted equatorward during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: ~24–18 ka), resulting in reduced deep ocean ventilation, accumulation of old dissolved carbon, and low atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. In order to test this notion, we applied surface exposure dating on moraines in the southern Central Andes, where glacial mass balances are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, i.e. to the latitudinal position of the westerlies. Our results provide robust evidence that the maximum glaciation occurred already at ~39 ka, significantly predating the global LGM. This questions the role of the westerlies for atmospheric CO 2 , and it highlights our limited understanding of the forcings of atmospheric circulation.

Description: Greenland ice sheet model parameters constrained using simulations of the Eemian Interglacial Climate of the Past, 7, 381-396, 2011 Author(s): A. Robinson, R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski Using a new approach to force an ice sheet model, we performed an ensemble of simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet evolution during the last two glacial cycles, with emphasis on the Eemian Interglacial. This ensemble was generated by perturbing four key parameters in the coupled regional climate-ice sheet model and by introducing additional uncertainty in the prescribed "background" climate change. The sensitivity of the surface melt model to climate change was determined to be the dominant driver of ice sheet instability, as reflected by simulated ice sheet loss during the Eemian Interglacial period. To eliminate unrealistic parameter combinations, constraints from present-day and paleo information were applied. The constraints include (i) the diagnosed present-day surface mass balance partition between surface melting and ice discharge at the margin, (ii) the modeled present-day elevation at GRIP; and (iii) the modeled elevation reduction at GRIP during the Eemian. Using these three constraints, a total of 360 simulations with 90 different model realizations were filtered down to 46 simulations and 20 model realizations considered valid. The paleo constraint eliminated more sensitive melt parameter values, in agreement with the surface mass balance partition assumption. The constrained simulations resulted in a range of Eemian ice loss of 0.4–4.4 m sea level equivalent, with a more likely range of about 3.7–4.4 m sea level if the GRIP δ 18 O isotope record can be considered an accurate proxy for the precipitation-weighted annual mean temperatures.

Description: A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium Climate of the Past, 7, 451-472, 2011 Author(s): J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Jerez, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, R. Lorente-Plazas, J. F. González-Rouco, and E. Zorita A high-resolution (30 km) regional paleoclimate simulation of the last millennium over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. The simulation was performed with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5 driven by the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by the same reconstructions of several external forcing factors. The high spatial resolution of the regional model allows climatologists to realistically simulate many aspects of the climate in the IP, as compared to an observational data set in the reference period 1961–1990. Although the spatial-averaged values developed by the regional model are tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is capable to develop a different realisation of the past climate at regional scales, especially in the high-frequency domain and for precipitation. This has to be considered when comparing the results of climate simulations versus proxy reconstructions. A preliminary comparison of the simulation results with reconstructions of temperature and precipitation over the IP shows good agreement in the warming trends in the last century of the simulation, although there are large disagreements in key periods such as the precipitation anomalies in the Maunder Minimum.

Description: Links between MIS 11 millennial to sub-millennial climate variability and long term trends as revealed by new high resolution EPICA Dome C deuterium data – A comparison with the Holocene Climate of the Past, 7, 437-450, 2011 Author(s): K. Pol, M. Debret, V. Masson-Delmotte, E. Capron, O. Cattani, G. Dreyfus, S. Falourd, S. Johnsen, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, and B. Stenni We expand here the description of the Antarctic temperature variability during the long interglacial period occurring ~400 thousand years before the present (Marine Isotopic Stage, MIS 11). Our study is based on new detailed deuterium measurements conducted on the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica, with a ~50 year temporal resolution. Despite an ice diffusion of a length reaching ~8 cm at MIS 11 depth, the data allow us to highlight a variability at multi-centennial scale for MIS 11, as it has already been observed for the Holocene period (MIS 1). The differences between MIS 1 and MIS 11 are analysed regarding the links between multi-millennial trends and sub-millennial variability. The EPICA Dome C deuterium record shows an increased variability and the onset of millennial to sub-millennial periodicities at the beginning of the final cooling phase of MIS 11. Our findings are robust with respect to sensitivity tests on the somewhat uncertain MIS 11 duration.

Description: Seasonal climate impacts on the grape harvest date in Burgundy (France) Climate of the Past, 7, 425-435, 2011 Author(s): M. Krieger, G. Lohmann, and T. Laepple In this study, we analyse the climatic impacts on the grape harvest date (GHD) in Burgundy (France) on interannual and decadal time scales. We affirm that the GHD is mainly influenced by the local April-to-August temperature (AAT) and provide the spatial expansion of this relationship. The spatial correlation pattern yields similar results for the instrumental and pre-instrumental period, indicating the consistency of the pre-instrumental field data with the instrumental GHD-spring/summer relationship. We find a previously undocumented second climate impact on the GHD. The winter temperature is significantly correlated with the GHD on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales and affects the GHD independently of the AAT. A multiple linear regression model, with AAT and decadal winter temperature as predictors, was found to be the best model to describe the GHD time series for the instrumental period. Stability tests of the correlations over time yield that both impacts on the GHD, AAT and decadal winter temperature, strengthen during the instrumental period. Using partial correlation analysis, we demonstrate that this is partly caused by a change in the winter–spring/summer temperature relationship. Summarising, the GHD is well suited to reconstruct interannual variations of the spring/summer temperature over large parts of Europe, even if the changing winter–spring/summer relation might affect the reconstruction in a second order. For decadal time scales, the December-to-August temperature shows the strongest relationship to the GHD and, therefore, proposes that the GHD can be used for European temperature reconstructions beyond the spring/summer season. Finally, we argue that our findings regarding the changed winter–spring/summer relation are relevant for physical and biological systems in several ways and should be analysed by other long-term proxy data and available model simulations.

Description: Terrestrial mollusc records from Xifeng and Luochuan L9 loess strata and their implications for paleoclimatic evolution in the Chinese Loess Plateau during marine Oxygen Isotope Stages 24-22 Climate of the Past, 7, 349-359, 2011 Author(s): B. Wu and N. Q. Wu Marine Isotope Stages 24-22 is a key period of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, however, its climate variability is still unclear. The coarse-grained loess unit L9, one of the most prominent units in the Chinese loess stratigraphy, yields a high potential terrestrial record of paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental changes during this period. In this study, two high-resolution terrestrial mollusc records of L9 loess strata from the Xifeng and Luochuan sequences in the Chinese Loess Plateau were analysed. Our mollusc results show that the MIS 24, the early and late parts of MIS 22 were dominated by cold and dry climate. Relatively mild-humid climate occurred in MIS 23 and the middle part of MIS 22. The climatic conditions at Xifeng region were cooler and more unstable compared to Luochuan region. A comparison of mollusc species composition and other proxies of L9 strata (MIS 24-22) with those of L1 loess units (MIS 4-2) indicates that the L9 loess was not deposited under the most severe glacial conditions in Quaternary climate history as suggested in previous studies. Our study shows that climatic conditions in the Loess Plateau during the L9 loess forming period were similar to that of gentle glacials (MIS 24 and MIS 22) and interglacial (MIS 23), as suggested by the marine δ 18 O record. Three cooling fluctuations occurred at ~930 ka, 900 ka and 880 ka, which might hint to the global "900 ka cooling event". The "900-ka event" in the Loess Plateau does not seem to be a simple long glaciation, but rather several complex climatic fluctuations superposed on a general cooling trend. The uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the general cooling experienced by the Earth during this period may have resulted in abundant dust sources and increased dust transport capability, as indicated by increased grain size and the mass accumulation rate of L9 loess.

Description: A comparison of the present and last interglacial periods in six Antarctic ice cores Climate of the Past, 7, 397-423, 2011 Author(s): V. Masson-Delmotte, D. Buiron, A. Ekaykin, M. Frezzotti, H. Gallée, J. Jouzel, G. Krinner, A. Landais, H. Motoyama, H. Oerter, K. Pol, D. Pollard, C. Ritz, E. Schlosser, L. C. Sime, H. Sodemann, B. Stenni, R. Uemura, and F. Vimeux We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during the glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories, which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models.

Description: Interglacial and glacial variability from the last 800 ka in marine, ice and terrestrial archives Climate of the Past, 7, 361-380, 2011 Author(s): N. Lang and E. W. Wolff We have compiled 37 ice, marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate records covering the last 800 000 years in order to assess the pattern of glacial and interglacial strength, and termination amplitude. Records were selected based on their length, completeness and resolution, and their age models were updated, where required, by alignment to the LR04 benthic δ 18 O stack. The resulting compilation allows comparison of individual glacial to interglacial transitions with confidence, but the level of synchronisation is inadequate for discussion of temporal phasing. The comparison of interglacials and glacials concentrates on the peaks immediately before and after terminations; particularly strong and weak glacials and interglacials have been identified. This confirms that strong interglacials are confined to the last 450 ka, and that this is a globally robust pattern; however weak interglacials (i.e. marine isotope stage 7) can still occur in this later period. Strong glacial periods are also concentrated in the recent half of the records, although marine isotope stage 16 is strong in many δ 18 O records. Strong interglacials, particularly in the marine isotopic records, tend to follow strong glacials, suggesting that we should not expect interglacial strength to be strongly influenced by the instantaneous astronomical forcing. Many interglacials have a complex structure, with multiple peaks and troughs whose origin needs to be understood. However this compilation emphasises the under-representation of terrestrial environments and highlights the need for long palaeoclimate records from these areas. The main result of this work is the compiled datasets and maps of interglacial strength which provide a target for modelling studies and for conceptual understanding.

Description: Abrupt rise in atmospheric CO 2 at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød: in-situ ice core data versus true atmospheric signals Climate of the Past, 7, 473-486, 2011 Author(s): P. Köhler, G. Knorr, D. Buiron, A. Lourantou, and J. Chappellaz During the last glacial/interglacial transition the Earth's climate underwent abrupt changes around 14.6 kyr ago. Temperature proxies from ice cores revealed the onset of the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) warm period in the north and the start of the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the south. Furthermore, the B/A was accompanied by a rapid sea level rise of about 20 m during meltwater pulse (MWP) 1A, whose exact timing is a matter of current debate. In-situ measured CO 2 in the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core also revealed a remarkable jump of 10 ± 1 ppmv in 230 yr at the same time. Allowing for the modelled age distribution of CO 2 in firn, we show that atmospheric CO 2 could have jumped by 20–35 ppmv in less than 200 yr, which is a factor of 2–3.5 greater than the CO 2 signal recorded in-situ in EDC. This rate of change in atmospheric CO 2 corresponds to 29–50% of the anthropogenic signal during the last 50 yr and is connected with a radiative forcing of 0.59–0.75 W m −2 . Using a model-based airborne fraction of 0.17 of atmospheric CO 2 , we infer that 125 Pg of carbon need to be released into the atmosphere to produce such a peak. If the abrupt rise in CO 2 at the onset of the B/A is unique with respect to other Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events of the last 60 kyr (which seems plausible if not unequivocal based on current observations), then the mechanism responsible for it may also have been unique. Available δ 13 CO 2 data are neutral, whether the source of the carbon is of marine or terrestrial origin. We therefore hypothesise that most of the carbon might have been activated as a consequence of continental shelf flooding during MWP-1A. This potential impact of rapid sea level rise on atmospheric CO 2 might define the point of no return during the last deglaciation.

Description: A new mechanism for the two-step δ 18 O signal at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary Climate of the Past, 7, 235-247, 2011 Author(s): M. Tigchelaar, A. S. von der Heydt, and H. A. Dijkstra The most marked step in the global climate transition from "Greenhouse" to "Icehouse" Earth occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary, 33.7 Ma. Evidence for climatic changes comes from many sources, including the marine benthic δ 18 O record, showing an increase by 1.2–1.5‰ at this time. This positive excursion is characterised by two steps, separated by a plateau. The increase in δ 18 O values has been attributed to rapid glaciation of the Antarctic continent, previously ice-free. Simultaneous changes in the δ 13 C record are suggestive of a greenhouse gas control on climate. Previous modelling studies show that a decline in p CO 2 beyond a certain threshold value may have initiated the growth of a Southern Hemispheric ice sheet. These studies were not able to conclusively explain the remarkable two-step profile in δ 18 O. Furthermore, they considered changes in the ocean circulation only regionally, or indirectly through the oceanic heat transport. The potential role of global changes in ocean circulation in the E-O transition has not been addressed yet. Here a new interpretation of the δ 18 O signal is presented, based on model simulations using a simple coupled 8-box-ocean, 4-box-atmosphere model with an added land ice component. The model was forced with a slowly decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. It is argued that the first step in the δ 18 O record reflects a shift in meridional overturning circulation from a Southern Ocean to a bipolar source of deep-water formation, which is associated with a cooling of the deep sea. The second step in the δ 18 O profile occurs due to a rapid glaciation of the Antarctic continent. This new mechanism is a robust outcome of our model and is qualitatively in close agreement with proxy data.

Description: Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Climate of the Past, 7, 265-276, 2011 Author(s): S. Brönnimann, G. P. Compo, R. Spadin, R. Allan, and W. Adam Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Description: Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation Climate of the Past, 7, 319-338, 2011 Author(s): A. Bozbiyik, M. Steinacher, F. Joos, T. F. Stocker, and L. Menviel CO 2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation.

Description: Impact of CO 2 and climate on the Last Glacial Maximum vegetation: results from the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models Climate of the Past, 7, 557-577, 2011 Author(s): M.-N. Woillez, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. Viovy, and M. Mancip Vegetation reconstructions from pollen data for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 ky ago, reveal lanscapes radically different from the modern ones, with, in particular, a massive regression of forested areas in both hemispheres. Two main factors have to be taken into account to explain these changes in comparison to today's potential vegetation: a generally cooler and drier climate and a lower level of atmospheric CO 2 . In order to assess the relative impact of climate and atmospheric CO 2 changes on the global vegetation, we simulate the potential modern vegetation and the glacial vegetation with the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE, driven by outputs from the IPSL_CM4_v1 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, under modern or glacial CO 2 levels for photosynthesis. ORCHIDEE correctly reproduces the broad features of the glacial vegetation. Our modelling results support the view that the physiological effect of glacial CO 2 is a key factor to explain vegetation changes during glacial times. In our simulations, the low atmospheric CO 2 is the only driver of the tropical forests regression, and explains half of the response of temperate and boreal forests to glacial conditions. Our study shows that the sensitivity to CO 2 changes depends on the background climate over a region, and also depends on the vegetation type, needleleaf trees being much more sensitive than broadleaf trees in our model. This difference of sensitivity leads to a dominance of broadleaf types in the remaining simulated forests, which is not supported by pollen data, but nonetheless suggests a potential impact of CO 2 on the glacial vegetation assemblages. It also modifies the competitivity between the trees and makes the amplitude of the response to CO 2 dependent on the initial vegetation state.

Description: Boron isotope fractionation during brucite deposition from artificial seawater Climate of the Past, 7, 693-706, 2011 Author(s): J. Xiao, Y. K. Xiao, C. Q. Liu, and Z. D. Jin Experiments involving boron incorporation into brucite (Mg(OH) 2 ) from magnesium-free artificial seawater with pH values ranging from 9.5 to 13.0 were carried out to better understand the incorporation behavior of boron into brucite and the influence of it on Mg/Ca-SST proxy and δ 11 B-pH proxy. The results show that both the concentration of boron in deposited brucite ([B] d ) and its boron partition coefficient ( K d ) between deposited brucite and final seawater are controlled by the pH of the solution. The incorporation capacity of boron into brucite is almost the same as that into corals, but much stronger than that into oxides and clay minerals. The isotopic compositions of boron in deposited brucite (δ 11 B d ) are higher than those in the associated artificial seawater (δ 11 B isw ) with fractionation factors ranging between 1.0177 and 1.0569, resulting from the preferential incorporation of B(OH) 3 into brucite. Both boron adsorptions onto brucite and the precipitation reaction of H 3 BO 3 with brucite exist during deposition of brucite from artificial seawater. The simultaneous occurrence of both processes determines the boron concentration and isotopic fractionation of brucite. The isotopic fractionation behaviors and mechanisms of boron incorporated into brucite are different from those into corals. The existence of brucite in corals can affect the δ 11 B and Mg/Ca in corals and influences the Mg/Ca-SST proxy and δ 11 B-pH proxy negatively. The relationship between δ 11 B and Mg/Ca in corals can be used to judge the existence of brucite in corals, which should provide a reliable method for better use of δ 11 B and Mg/Ca in corals to reconstruct paleo-marine environment.

Description: High-resolution records of the beryllium-10 solar activity proxy in ice from Law Dome, East Antarctica: measurement, reproducibility and principal trends Climate of the Past, 7, 707-721, 2011 Author(s): J. B. Pedro, A. M. Smith, K. J. Simon, T. D. van Ommen, and M. A. J. Curran Three near-monthly resolution 10 Be records are presented from the Dome Summit South (DSS) ice core site, Law Dome, East Antarctica. The chemical preparation and Accelerator Mass Spectrometer (AMS) measurement of these records is described. The reproducibility of 10 Be records at DSS is assessed through intercomparison of the ice core data with data from two previously published and contemporaneous snow pits. We find generally good agreement between the five records, comparable to that observed between other trace chemical records from the site. This result allays concerns raised by a previous Antarctic study (Moraal et al., 2005) about poor reproducibility of ice core 10 Be records. A single composite series is constructed from the three ice cores providing a monthly-resolved record of 10 Be concentrations at DSS over the past decade (1999 to 2009). To our knowledge, this is the first published ice core data spanning the recent exceptional solar minimum of solar cycle 23. 10 Be concentrations are significantly correlated to the cosmic ray flux recorded by the McMurdo neutron monitor ( r xy = 0.64, with 95 % CI of 0.53 to 0.71), suggesting that solar modulation of the atmospheric production rate may explain up to ~40 % of the variance in 10 Be concentrations at DSS. Sharp concentration peaks occur in most years during the summer-to-autumn, possibly caused by stratospheric incursions. Our results underscore the presence of both production and meteorological signals in ice core 10 Be data.

Description: Implications of the permanent El Niño teleconnection "blueprint" for past global and North American hydroclimatology Climate of the Past, 7, 723-743, 2011 Author(s): A. Goldner, M. Huber, N. Diffenbaugh, and R. Caballero Substantial evidence exists for wetter-than-modern continental conditions in North America during the pre-Quaternary warm climate intervals. This is in apparent conflict with the robust global prediction for future climate change of a northward expansion of the subtropical dry zones that should drive aridification of many semiarid regions. Indeed, areas of expected future aridification include much of western North America, where extensive paleoenvironmental records are documented to have been much wetter before the onset of Quaternary ice ages. It has also been proposed that climates previous to the Quaternary may have been characterized as being in a state with warmer-than-modern eastern equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Because equatorial Pacific SSTs exert strong controls on midlatitude atmospheric circulation and the global hydrologic cycle, the teleconnected response from this permanent El Niño-like mean state has been proposed as a useful analogue model, or "blueprint", for understanding global climatological anomalies in the past. The present study quantitatively explores the implications of this blueprint for past climates with a specific focus on the Miocene and Pliocene, using a global climate model (CAM3.0) and a nested high-resolution climate model (RegCM3) to study the hydrologic impacts on global and North American climate of a change in mean SSTs resembling that which occurs during modern El Niño events. We find that the global circulation response to a permanent El Niño resembles a large, long El Niño event. This state also exhibits equatorial super-rotation, which would represent a fundamental change to the tropical circulations. We also find a southward shift in winter storm tracks in the Pacific and Atlantic, which affects precipitation and temperature over the mid-latitudes. In addition, summertime precipitation increases over the majority of the continental United States. These increases in precipitation are controlled by shifts in the subtropical jet and secondary atmospheric feedbacks. Based on these results and the data proxy comparison, we conclude that a permanent El Niño like state is one potential explanation of wetter-than-modern conditions observed in paleoclimate-proxy records, particularly over the western United States.

Description: Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) evidenced in annually laminated sediments Climate of the Past, 7, 987-999, 2011 Author(s): A. Koutsodendris, A. Brauer, H. Pälike, U. C. Müller, P. Dulski, A. F. Lotter, and J. Pross To unravel the short-term climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, which represents a close analogue to the Holocene with regard to orbital boundary conditions, we performed microfacies and time series analyses on a ~3200-yr-long record of annually laminated Holsteinian lake sediments from Dethlingen, northern Germany. These biogenic varves comprise two sub-layers: a light sub-layer, which is controlled by spring/summer diatom blooms, and a dark sub-layer consisting mainly of amorphous organic matter and fragmented diatom frustules deposited during autumn/winter. Time series analyses were performed on the thickness of the light and dark sub-layers. Signals exceeding the 95% and 99% confidence levels occur at periods that are near-identical to those known from modern instrumental data and Holocene palaeoclimatic records. Spectral peaks at periods of 90, 25, and 10.5 yr are likely associated with the 88-, 22- and 11-yr solar cycles, respectively. This variability is mainly expressed in the light sub-layer spectra, suggesting solar influence on the palaeoproductivity of the lake. Significant signals at periods between 3 and 5 yr and at ∼6 yr are strongest expressed in the dark sub-layer spectra and may reflect an influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during autumn/winter. Our results suggest that solar forcing and ENSO/NAO-like variability influenced central European climate during MIS 11 similarly to the present interglacial, thus demonstrating the comparability of the two interglacial periods at sub-decadal to decadal timescales.

Description: A refined TALDICE-1a age scale from 55 to 112 ka before present for the Talos Dome ice core based on high-resolution methane measurements Climate of the Past, 7, 1001-1009, 2011 Author(s): S. Schüpbach, U. Federer, M. Bigler, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker A precise synchronization of different climate records is indispensable for a correct dynamical interpretation of paleoclimatic data. A chronology for the TALDICE ice core from the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica has recently been presented based on methane synchronization with Greenland and the EDC ice cores and δ 18 O ice synchronization with EDC in the bottom part (TALDICE-1). Using new high-resolution methane data obtained with a continuous flow analysis technique, we present a refined age scale for the age interval from 55–112 thousand years (ka) before present, where TALDICE is synchronized with EDC. New and more precise tie points reduce the uncertainties of the age scale from up to 1900 yr in TALDICE-1 to below 1100 yr over most of the refined interval and shift the Talos Dome dating to significantly younger ages during the onset of Marine Isotope Stage 3. Thus, discussions of climate dynamics at sub-millennial time scales are now possible back to 110 ka, in particular during the inception of the last ice age. Calcium data of EDC and TALDICE are compared to show the impact of the refinement to the synchronization of the two ice cores not only for the gas but also for the ice age scale.

Description: Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ 18 O: ice core data, orbital and increased CO 2 climate simulations Climate of the Past, 7, 1041-1059, 2011 Author(s): V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Braconnot, G. Hoffmann, J. Jouzel, M. Kageyama, A. Landais, Q. Lejeune, C. Risi, L. Sime, J. Sjolte, D. Swingedouw, and B. Vinther The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO 2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO 2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO 2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 years ago). The IPSL-CM4 model produces a remarkably linear relationship between TOA incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship to be explored. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows calculation of a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4‰ per °C) during warmer-than-present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO 2 , increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears half as large as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. It may, however, be model-dependent, as indicated by preliminary comparison with other models. This suggests that further simulations and detailed inter-model comparisons are also likely to be of benefit. Comparisons with Greenland ice core stable isotope data reveals that IPSL-CM4/LMDZiso simulations strongly underestimate the amplitude of the ice core signal during the last interglacial, which could reach +8–10 °C at fixed-elevation. While the model-data mismatch may result from missing positive feedbacks (e.g. vegetation), it could also be explained by a reduced elevation of the central Greenland ice sheet surface by 300–400 m.

Description: Temperature variability at Dürres Maar, Germany during the Migration Period and at High Medieval Times, inferred from stable carbon isotopes of Sphagnum cellulose Climate of the Past, 7, 1011-1026, 2011 Author(s): R. Moschen, N. Kühl, S. Peters, H. Vos, and A. Lücke This paper presents a high resolution reconstruction of local growing season temperature (GST) anomalies at Dürres Maar, Germany, spanning the last two millennia. The GST anomalies were derived from a stable carbon isotope time series of cellulose chemically extracted from Sphagnum leaves (δ 13 C cellulose ) separated from a kettle-hole peat deposit of several metres thickness. The temperature reconstruction is based on the Sphagnum δ 13 C cellulose /temperature dependency observed in calibration studies. Reconstructed GST anomalies show considerable centennial and decadal scale variability. A cold and presumably wet phase with below-average temperature is reconstructed between the 4th and 7th century AD which is in accordance with the so called European Migration Period, marking the transition from the Late Roman Period to the Early Middle Ages. At High Medieval Times, the amplitude in the reconstructed temperature variability is most likely overestimated; nevertheless, above-average temperatures are obvious during this time span, which are followed by a temperature decrease. On the contrary, a pronounced Late Roman Climate Optimum, often described as similarly warm or even warmer as medieval times, could not be detected. The temperature signal of the Little Ice Age (LIA) is not preserved in Dürres Maar due to considerable peat cutting that takes place in the first half of the 19th century. The local GST anomalies show a remarkable agreement to northern hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring datasets and are also in accordance with climate reconstructions on the basis of lake sediments, glacier advances and retreats, and historical datasets. Most notably, e.g., during the Early Middle Ages and at High Medieval Times, temperatures were neither low nor high in general. Rather high frequency temperature variability with multiple narrow intervals of below- and above-average temperatures at maximum lasting a few decades are reconstructed. Especially the agreements between our estimated GST anomalies and temperature reconstructions derived from tree-ring chronologies indicate the great potential of Sphagnum δ 13 C cellulose time series from peat deposits for palaeoclimate research. This is particularly the case, given that a quantitative δ 13 C cellulose /temperature relationship has been found for several Sphagnum species. Although the time resolution of Sphagnum δ 13 C cellulose datasets certainly wouldn't reach the annual resolution of tree-ring data, reconstructions of past temperature variability on the basis of this proxy hold one particular advantage: often due to relatively high peat accumulation rates, especially in kettle-hole bogs accumulated on temperate latitudes over periods of up to several millennia, they allow extending temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring series into the past to enhance our knowledge of natural climate variability during the Holocene.

Description: Corrigendum to "Solar-forced shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies during the Holocene" published in Clim. Past, 7, 339–347, 2011 Climate of the Past, 7, 985-985, 2011 Author(s): V. Varma, M. Prange, F. Lamy, U. Merkel, and M. Schulz No abstract available.

Description: Strength of forest-albedo feedback in mid-Holocene climate simulations Climate of the Past, 7, 1027-1039, 2011 Author(s): J. Otto, T. Raddatz, and M. Claussen Reconstructions of the mid-Holocene climate, 6000 years before present, suggest that spring temperatures were higher at high northern latitudes compared to the pre-industrial period. A positive feedback between expansion of forest and climate presumably contributed to this warming. In the presence of snow, forests have a lower albedo than grass land. Therefore, the expansion of forest likely favoured a warming in spring, counteracting the lower insolation at the mid-Holocene. We investigate the sensitivity of the vegetation-atmosphere interaction under mid-Holocene orbital forcing with respect to the strength of the forest-albedo feedback by using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-vegetation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH). We perform two sets of model simulations: a first set of simulations with a relatively weak reduction of albedo of snow by forest; and a second set of simulations with a relatively strong reduction of the albedo of snow by forest. We show that the parameterisation of the albedo of snow leads to uncertainties in the temperature signal. Compared to the set with weak snow masking, the simulations with strong snow masking reveal a spring warming that is three times higher, by 0.34 °C north of 60° N. This warming is related to a forest expansion of only 13%.

Description: Annual layering in the NGRIP ice core during the Eemian Climate of the Past, 7, 1427-1437, 2011 Author(s): A. Svensson, M. Bigler, E. Kettner, D. Dahl-Jensen, S. Johnsen, S. Kipfstuhl, M. Nielsen, and J. P. Steffensen The Greenland NGRIP ice core continuously covers the period from present day back to 123 ka before present, which includes several thousand years of ice from the previous interglacial period, MIS 5e or the Eemian. In the glacial part of the core, annual layers can be identified from impurity records and visual stratigraphy, and stratigraphic layer counting has been performed back to 60 ka. In the deepest part of the core, however, the ice is close to the pressure melting point, the visual stratigraphy is dominated by crystal boundaries, and annual layering is not visible to the naked eye. In this study, we apply a newly developed setup for high-resolution ice core impurity analysis to produce continuous records of dust, sodium and ammonium concentrations as well as conductivity of melt water. We analyzed three 2.2 m sections of ice from the Eemian and the glacial inception. In all of the analyzed ice, annual layers can clearly be recognized, most prominently in the dust and conductivity profiles. Part of the samples is, however, contaminated in dust, most likely from drill liquid. It is interesting that the annual layering is preserved despite a very active crystal growth and grain boundary migration in the deep and warm NGRIP ice. Based on annual layer counting of the new records, we determine a mean annual layer thickness close to 11 mm for all three sections, which, to first order, confirms the modeled NGRIP time scale (ss09sea). The counting does, however, suggest a longer duration of the climatically warmest part of the NGRIP record (MIS5e) of up to 1 ka as compared to the model estimate. Our results suggest that stratigraphic layer counting is possible basically throughout the entire NGRIP ice core, provided sufficiently highly-resolved profiles become available.

Description: The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles Climate of the Past, 7, 1415-1425, 2011 Author(s): A. Ganopolski and R. Calov The origin of the 100 kyr cyclicity, which dominates ice volume variations and other climate records over the past million years, remains debatable. Here, using a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we demonstrate that both strong 100 kyr periodicity in the ice volume variations and the timing of glacial terminations during past 800 kyr can be successfully simulated as direct, strongly nonlinear responses of the climate-cryosphere system to orbital forcing alone, if the atmospheric CO 2 concentration stays below its typical interglacial value. The existence of long glacial cycles is primarily attributed to the North American ice sheet and requires the presence of a large continental area with exposed rocks. We show that the sharp, 100 kyr peak in the power spectrum of ice volume results from the long glacial cycles being synchronized with the Earth's orbital eccentricity. Although 100 kyr cyclicity can be simulated with a constant CO 2 concentration, temporal variability in the CO 2 concentration plays an important role in the amplification of the 100 kyr cycles.

Description: Corrigendum to "Impact of CO 2 and climate on the Last Glacial Maximum vegetation: results from the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models" published in Clim. Past, 7, 557–577, 2011 Climate of the Past, 7, 1457-1457, 2011 Author(s): M.-N. Woillez, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. Viovy, and M. Mancip No abstract available.

Description: Volcanic impact on the Atlantic Ocean over the last millennium Climate of the Past, 7, 1439-1455, 2011 Author(s): J. Mignot, M. Khodri, C. Frankignoul, and J. Servonnat The oceanic response to volcanic eruptions over the last 1000 years is investigated with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean, using a fully coupled AOGCM forced by a realistic time series of volcanic eruptions, total solar irradiance (TSI) and atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration. The model simulates little response to TSI variations but a strong and long-lasting thermal and dynamical oceanic adjustment to volcanic forcing, which is shown to be a function of the time period of the volcanic eruptions. The thermal response consists of a fast tropical cooling due to the radiative forcing by the volcanic eruptions, followed by a penetration of this cooling in the subtropical ocean interior one to five years after the eruption, and propagation of the anomalies toward the high latitudes. The oceanic circulation first adjusts rapidly to low latitude anomalous wind stress induced by the strong cooling. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a significant intensification 5 to 10 years after the eruptions of the period post-1400 A.D., in response to anomalous atmospheric momentum forcing, and a slight weakening in the following decade. In response to the stronger eruptions occurring between 1100 and 1300, the AMOC shows no intensification and a stronger reduction after 10 years. This study thus stresses the diversity of AMOC response to volcanic eruptions in climate models and discusses possible explanations.

Description: Distinct responses of East Asian summer and winter monsoons to astronomical forcing Climate of the Past, 7, 1363-1370, 2011 Author(s): Z. G. Shi, X. D. Liu, Y. B. Sun, Z. S. An, Z. Liu, and J. Kutzbach Influences of the Earth's astronomical forcing on the evolution of East Asian monsoon have been demonstrated with various geological records and climate models. Here, we present time series of climatic proxies from the Chinese Loess Plateau and Sanbao/Hulu caves and the winter/summer monsoon intensity index from a long-term transient climate model simulation. Both the observations and modelling results reveal consistently distinct responses of East Asian summer and winter monsoons to astronomical forcing. Different from the dominant local impact on the summer monsoon at the precession scale (~20 ka period), the East Asian winter monsoon is driven predominantly by the obliquity forcing (~40 ka period). We propose that the obliquity forcing controls the meridional insolation difference and, therefore, exerts a more significant effect on the evolution of the East Asian winter monsoon than previously expected.

Description: Reconstruction of a continuous high-resolution CO 2 record over the past 20 million years Climate of the Past, 7, 1459-1469, 2011 Author(s): R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja The gradual cooling of the climate during the Cenozoic has generally been attributed to a decrease in CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere. The lack of transient climate models and, in particular, the lack of high-resolution proxy records of CO 2 , beyond the ice-core record prohibit, however, a full understanding of, for example, the inception of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation and mid-Pleistocene transition. Here we elaborate on an inverse modelling technique to reconstruct a continuous CO 2 series over the past 20 million year (Myr), by decomposing the global deep-sea benthic δ 18 O record into a mutually consistent temperature and sea level record, using a set of 1-D models of the major Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheets. We subsequently compared the modelled temperature record with ice core and proxy-derived CO 2 data to create a continuous CO 2 reconstruction over the past 20 Myr. Results show a gradual decline from 450 ppmv around 15 Myr ago to 225 ppmv for mean conditions of the glacial-interglacial cycles of the last 1 Myr, coinciding with a gradual cooling of the global surface temperature of 10 K. Between 13 to 3 Myr ago there is no long-term sea level variation caused by ice-volume changes. We find no evidence of change in the long-term relation between temperature change and CO 2 , other than the effect following the saturation of the absorption bands for CO 2 . The reconstructed CO 2 record shows that the Northern Hemisphere glaciation starts once the long-term average CO 2 concentration drops below 265 ppmv after a period of strong decrease in CO 2 . Finally, only a small long-term decline of 23 ppmv is found during the mid-Pleistocene transition, constraining theories on this major transition in the climate system. The approach is not accurate enough to revise current ideas about climate sensitivity.

Description: Tracking climate variability in the western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene: a multiproxy approach Climate of the Past, 7, 1395-1414, 2011 Author(s): V. Nieto-Moreno, F. Martínez-Ruiz, S. Giralt, F. Jiménez-Espejo, D. Gallego-Torres, M. Rodrigo-Gámiz, J. García-Orellana, M. Ortega-Huertas, and G. J. de Lange Climate variability in the western Mediterranean is reconstructed for the last 4000 yr using marine sediments recovered in the west Algerian-Balearic Basin, near the Alboran Basin. Fluctuations in chemical and mineralogical sediment composition as well as grain size distribution are linked to fluvial-eolian oscillations, changes in redox conditions and paleocurrent intensity. Multivariate analyses allowed us to characterize three main groups of geochemical and mineralogical proxies determining the sedimentary record of this region. These three statistical groups were applied to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions at high resolution during the Late Holocene. An increase in riverine input (fluvial-derived elements – Rb/Al, Ba/Al, REE/Al, Si/Al, Ti/Al, Mg/Al and K/Al ratios), and a decrease in Saharan eolian input (Zr/Al ratio) depict the Roman Humid Period and the Little Ice Age, while drier environmental conditions are recognized during the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, faster bottom currents and more energetic hydrodynamic conditions for the former periods are evidenced by enhanced sortable silt (10-63 μm) and quartz content, and by better oxygenated bottom waters – as reflected by decreasing redox-sensitive elements (V/Al, Cr/Al, Ni/Al and Zn/Al ratios). In contrast, opposite paleoceanographic conditions are distinguished during the latter periods, i.e. the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Although no Ba excess was registered, other paleoproductivity indicators (total organic carbon content, Br/Al ratio, and organometallic ligands such as U and Cu) display the highest values during the Roman Humid Period, and together with increasing preservation of organic matter, this period exhibits by far the most intense productivity of the last 4000 yr. Fluctuations in detrital input into the basin as the main process managing deposition, reflected by the first eigenvector defined by the Principal Component Analyses, point to solar irradiance and the North Atlantic Oscillation variability as the main driving mechanisms behind natural climate variability over decadal to centennial time-scales for the last 4000 yr.

Description: Past environmental and climatic changes during the last 7200 cal yr BP in Adamawa plateau (Northern-Cameroun) based on fossil diatoms and sedimentary carbon isotopic records from Lake Mbalang Climate of the Past, 7, 1371-1393, 2011 Author(s): V. F. Nguetsop, I. Bentaleb, C. Favier, C. Martin, S. Bietrix, P. Giresse, S. Servant-Vildary, and M. Servant Past limnological conditions of Lake Mbalang (7°19′ N, 13°44′ E, altitude: 1130 m) and vegetation type were reconstructed from diatoms and sedimentary stable carbon isotope records (δ 13 C) since 7200 cal yr BP. The data showed that before 3600 cal yr BP, the water column was dominantly stable except around 5000–5300 cal yr BP where diatoms evidenced a mixed upper water layer and δ 13 C data suggest more forested vegetation in the landscape. These stable conditions can be explained by a strong monsoon flux and relatively northern position of the ITCZ that entailed high or low rainfall well distributed over the year, allowing the development of mountainous forest taxa. The decreasing trend of the monsoon flux towards the mid-Holocene was affected by several abrupt centennial to millennial-scale weakening at 6700, 5800–6000, 5000–5300, 4500 and 3600 cal yr BP. However, their impact on the vegetation is not visible, probably because rainfall distribution was favourable to forest maintenance or extension. After 3600 cal yr BP, the water column became very mixed as a result of more intense NE trade winds (Harmattan) that led at ~3000 cal yr BP to the establishment of savannah in the vegetation landscape. At that time, rainfall was probably reduced following the southward shift of the ITCZ, and the distribution of yearly rainfall was not favourable anymore to forest development. A strong seasonality with a marked dry season was established, conditions that maintained the savannah vegetation until today. Diatom data suggest the lake did not dry up during the last 7200cal yr BP; however, a low lake level observed at 2400–2100 cal yr BP is contemporaneous to a climatic event evidenced in several areas of tropical Africa and could correspond to the southernmost position of the ITCZ. Other low lake levels are observed at 1800 and 1400 cal yr BP, after which the lake rose to its present level.

Description: Down the Rabbit Hole: toward appropriate discussion of methane release from gas hydrate systems during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum and other past hyperthermal events Climate of the Past, 7, 831-846, 2011 Author(s): G. R. Dickens Enormous amounts of 13 C-depleted carbon rapidly entered the exogenic carbon cycle during the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), as attested to by a prominent negative carbon isotope (δ 13 C) excursion and deep-sea carbonate dissolution. A widely cited explanation for this carbon input has been thermal dissociation of gas hydrate on continental slopes, followed by release of CH 4 from the seafloor and its subsequent oxidation to CO 2 in the ocean or atmosphere. Increasingly, papers have argued against this mechanism, but without fully considering existing ideas and available data. Moreover, other explanations have been presented as plausible alternatives, even though they conflict with geological observations, they raise major conceptual problems, or both. Methane release from gas hydrates remains a congruous explanation for the δ 13 C excursion across the PETM, although it requires an unconventional framework for global carbon and sulfur cycling, and it lacks proof. These issues are addressed here in the hope that they will prompt appropriate discussions regarding the extraordinary carbon injection at the start of the PETM and during other events in Earth's history.

Description: Regional climate model experiments to investigate the Asian monsoon in the Late Miocene Climate of the Past, 7, 847-868, 2011 Author(s): H. Tang, A. Micheels, J. Eronen, and M. Fortelius The Late Miocene (11.6–5.3 Ma) is a crucial period in the history of the Asian monsoon. Significant changes in the Asian climate regime have been documented for this period, which saw the formation of the modern Asian monsoon system. However, the spatiotemporal structure of these changes is still ambiguous, and the associated mechanisms are debated. Here, we present a simulation of the average state of the Asian monsoon climate for the Tortonian (11–7 Ma) using the regional climate model CCLM3.2. We employ relatively high spatial resolution (1° × 1°) and adapt the physical boundary conditions such as topography, land-sea distribution and vegetation in the regional model to represent the Late Miocene. As climatological forcing, the output of a Tortonian run with a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is used. Our regional Tortonian run shows a stronger-than-present East Asian winter monsoon wind as a result of the enhanced mid-latitude westerly wind of our global forcing and the lowered present-day northern Tibetan Plateau in the regional model. The summer monsoon circulation is generally weakened in our regional Tortonian run compared to today. However, the changes of summer monsoon precipitation exhibit major regional differences. Precipitation decreases in northern China and northern India, but increases in southern China, the western coast and the southern tip of India. This can be attributed to the changes in both the regional topography (e.g. the lower northern Tibetan Plateau) and the global climate conditions (e.g. the higher sea surface temperature). The spread of dry summer conditions over northern China and northern Pakistan in our Tortonian run further implies that the monsoonal climate may not have been fully established in these regions in the Tortonian. Compared with the global model, the high resolution regional model highlights the spatial differences of the Asian monsoon climate in the Tortonian, and better characterizes the convective activity and its response to regional topographical changes. It therefore provides a useful and compared to global models, a complementary tool to improve our understanding of the Asian monsoon evolution in the Late Miocene.

Description: Antarctic ice sheet and oceanographic response to eccentricity forcing during the early Miocene Climate of the Past, 7, 869-880, 2011 Author(s): D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike Stable isotope records of benthic foraminifera from ODP Site 1264 in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean are presented which resolve the latest Oligocene to early Miocene (~24–19 Ma) climate changes at high temporal resolution (

Description: Cold tongue/Warm pool and ENSO dynamics in the Pliocene Climate of the Past, 7, 903-915, 2011 Author(s): A. S. von der Heydt, A. Nnafie, and H. A. Dijkstra It has been suggested that a "permanent" El Niño climate state has existed in the warm Pliocene. One of the main pieces of evidence of such conditions is the small east-west sea surface temperature (SST) difference that is found in proxy temperature records of the equatorial Pacific. Using a coupled version of the Zebiak-Cane model of intermediate complexity for the tropical Pacific, we study the sensitivity of the time-mean Pacific background state and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability to Pliocene climate changes. The parameters varied in this sensitivity study include changes in the trade wind strength due to a reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient, higher global mean temperatures and an open Panama gateway. All these changes lead to a westward shift of the position of the cold tongue along the equator by up to 2000 km. This result is consistent with data from the PRISM3D Pliocene SST reconstruction. Our model further suggests that ENSO variability is present in the Pliocene climate with only slight changes as compared to today. A background climate that would resemble a "permanent" El Niño with weak to no east-west temperature difference along the equator is only found for very weak trade winds which seem unrealistic for the Pliocene climate.

Description: Impact of North Atlantic – GIN Sea exchange on deglaciation evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Climate of the Past, 7, 935-940, 2011 Author(s): J. Cheng, Z. Liu, F. He, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and C. Colose In a transient simulation of the last deglaciation with a fully coupled model (TraCE-21000), an overshoot of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is simulated and proposed as a key factor for the onset of the Bølling-Allerød (BA) warming event. There is collaborating evidence for an AMOC overshoot at the BA in various proxy reconstructions although the mechanism governing its behavior is not well understood. Here, we present two new sensitivity experiments to explicitly illustrate the impact of North Atlantic – GIN Sea exchange on the AMOC's deglacial evolution. Results show that this oceanic exchange dominates the convection restarting in the GIN Sea, the occurrence of the AMOC overshoot, and the full BA warming.

Description: Are paleoclimate model ensembles consistent with the MARGO data synthesis? Climate of the Past, 7, 917-933, 2011 Author(s): J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, R. Ohgaito, A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan We investigate the consistency of various ensembles of climate model simulations with the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) sea surface temperature data synthesis. We discover that while two multi-model ensembles, created through the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Projects (PMIP and PMIP2), pass our simple tests of reliability, an ensemble based on parameter variation in a single model does not perform so well. We show that accounting for observational uncertainty in the MARGO database is of prime importance for correctly evaluating the ensembles. Perhaps surprisingly, the inclusion of a coupled dynamical ocean (compared to the use of a slab ocean) does not appear to cause a wider spread in the sea surface temperature anomalies, but rather causes systematic changes with more heat transported north in the Atlantic. There is weak evidence that the sea surface temperature data may be more consistent with meridional overturning in the North Atlantic being similar for the LGM and the present day. However, the small size of the PMIP2 ensemble prevents any statistically significant results from being obtained.

Description: Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii Climate of the Past, 7, 975-983, 2011 Author(s): B. D. Malamud, D. L. Turcotte, and C. S. B. Grimmond Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere. For the same reasons that this site provides excellent globally averaged CO 2 data, it may provide temperature data with global significance. Here, we examine hourly temperature records, averaged annually for 1977–2006, to determine linear trends as a function of time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 06:00 LST (local standard time)) there is a near-uniform warming of 0.040 °C yr −1 . During the day, the linear trend shows a slight cooling of −0.014 °C yr −1 at 12:00 LST (noon). Overall, at Mauna Loa Observatory, there is a mean warming trend of 0.021 °C yr −1 . The dominance of night-time warming results in a relatively large annual decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of −0.050 °C yr −1 over the period 1977–2006. These trends are consistent with the observed increases in the concentrations of CO 2 and its role as a greenhouse gas (demonstrated here by first-order radiative forcing calculations), and indicate the possible relevance of the Mauna Loa temperature measurements to global warming.

Description: Sensitivity of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation forcing during the last interglacial Climate of the Past, 7, 941-955, 2011 Author(s): G. Trommer, M. Siccha, E. J. Rohling, K. Grant, M. T. J. van der Meer, S. Schouten, U. Baranowski, and M. Kucera This study investigates the response of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation changes during termination II and across the last interglacial, in comparison with termination I and the Holocene. Sediment cores from the central and northern part of the Red Sea were investigated by micropaleontological and geochemical proxies. The recovery of the planktic foraminiferal fauna following high salinities during marine isotopic stage (MIS) 6 took place at similar sea-level stand (~50 m below present day), and with a similar species succession, as during termination I. This indicates a consistent sensitivity of the basin oceanography and the plankton ecology to sea-level forcing. Based on planktic foraminifera, we find that increased water exchange with the Gulf of Aden especially occurred during the sea-level highstand of interglacial MIS 5e. From MIS 6 to the peak of MIS 5e, northern Red Sea sea surface temperature (SST) increased from 21 °C to 25 °C, with about 3 °C of this increase taking place during termination II. Changes in planktic foraminiferal assemblages indicate that the development of the Red Sea oceanography during MIS 5 was strongly determined by insolation and monsoon strength. The SW Monsoon summer circulation mode was enhanced during the termination, causing low productivity in northern central Red Sea core KL9, marked by high abundance of G. sacculifer , which – as in the Holocene – followed summer insolation. Core KL11 records the northern tip of the intruding intermediate water layer from the Gulf of Aden and its planktic foraminifera fauna shows evidence for elevated productivity during the sea-level highstand in the southern central Red Sea. By the time of MIS 5 sea-level regression, elevated organic biomarker BIT values suggest denudation of soil organic matter into the Red Sea and high abundances of G. glutinata , and high reconstructed chlorophyll- a values, indicate an intensified NE Monsoon winter circulation mode. Our results imply that the amplitude of insolation fluctuations, and the resulting monsoon strength, strongly influence the Red Sea oceanography during sea-level highstands by regulating the intensity of water exchange with the Gulf of Aden. These processes are responsible for the observation that MIS 5e/d is characterized by higher primary productivity than the Holocene.

Description: A millennial multi-proxy reconstruction of summer PDSI for Southern South America Climate of the Past, 7, 957-974, 2011 Author(s): É. Boucher, J. Guiot, and E. Chapron We present the first spatially explicit field reconstruction of the summer (DJF) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Southern Hemisphere. Our multi-proxy reconstruction focuses on Southern South America (SSA, south of 20° S) and is based on a novel spectral analogue method that aims at reconstructing low PDSI frequencies independently from higher frequencies. The analysis of past regimes and trends in extreme wet spells and droughts reveals considerable geographical and temporal variations over the last millennium in SSA. Although recent changes are in some cases notorious, most were not exceptional at the scale of the last thousand years. Our reconstruction highlights that low frequency water availability fluctuations in Patagonia were generally in antiphase with the rest of the subcontinent. Providing the fact that modern patterns of changes are transferable to the past, we show that such antiphases within SSA's hydroclimate could be attributed to the spatially contrasted response of summer PDSI to the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). However, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals are also embedded within the PDSI series during the 20th century. All these ocean-atmospheric forcings acted synergically, but the dominant influence appeared highly compartmentalized through space, highlighting clear AAO- (e.g. South Patagonia) and ENSO- (e.g. the Pampas) dominated regions. Our results therefore emphasize the complexity of water-availability fluctuations in SSA and their important dependence on external ocean-atmospheric forcings.

Description: Quantifying sea surface temperature ranges of the Arabian Sea for the past 20 000 years Climate of the Past, 7, 1337-1349, 2011 Author(s): G. M. Ganssen, F. J. C. Peeters, B. Metcalfe, P. Anand, S. J. A. Jung, D. Kroon, and G.-J. A. Brummer The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera tests is one of the widest used geochemical tools to reconstruct past changes of physical parameters of the upper ocean. It is common practice to analyze multiple individuals from a mono-specific population and assume that the outcome reflects a mean value of the environmental conditions during calcification of the analyzed individuals. Here we present the oxygen isotope composition of individual specimens of the surface-dwelling species Globigerinoides ruber and Globigerina bulloides from sediment cores in the Western Arabian Sea off Somalia, inferred as indicators of past seasonal ranges in temperature. Combining the δ 18 O measurements of individual specimens to obtain temperature ranges with Mg/Ca based mean calcification temperatures allows us to reconstruct temperature extrema. Our results indicate that over the past 20 kyr the seasonal temperature range has fluctuated from its present value of 16 °C to mean values of 13 °C and 11 °C for the Holocene and LGM, respectively. The data for the LGM suggest that the maximum temperature was lower, whilst minimum temperature remained approximately constant. The rather minor variability in lowest summer temperatures during the LGM suggests roughly constant summer monsoon intensity, while upwelling-induced productivity was lowered.

Description: Late Holocene plant and climate evolution at Lake Yoa, northern Chad: pollen data and climate simulations Climate of the Past, 7, 1351-1362, 2011 Author(s): A.-M. Lézine, W. Zheng, P. Braconnot, and G. Krinner The discovery of groundwater-fed Lake Yoa (19.03° N, 20.31° E) in the hyperarid desert of northern Chad by the German research team ACACIA headed by S. Kröpelin provides a unique, continuous sedimentary sequence of late Holocene age available in the entire Saharan desert. Here we present pollen data and climate simulations using the LMDZ atmospheric model with a module representing the climatologically-relevant thermal and hydrological processes occurring above and beneath inland water surfaces to document past environmental and climate changes during the last 6000 cal yr BP. Special attention is paid to wind strength and direction, length and amplitude of the rainy season, and dry spell occurrence, all of which are of primary importance for plant distribution and pollen transport. In addition to climate changes and their impact on the natural environment, anthropogenic changes are also discussed. Two main features can be highlighted: (1) the shift from an earlier predominantly monsoonal climate regime to one dominated by northern Mediterranean fluxes that occurred after 4000 cal yr BP. The direct consequence of this was the establishment of the modern desert environment at Yoa at 2700 cal yr BP. (2) Changes in climate parameters (simulated rainfall amount and dry spell length) between 6 and 4000 cal yr BP were comparatively minor. However, changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation during this time interval dramatically affected the vegetation composition and were at the origin of the retreat of tropical plant communities from Lake Yoa.

Description: Evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient Holocene simulation: orbital forcing and sea-ice Climate of the Past, 7, 1139-1148, 2011 Author(s): N. Fischer and J. H. Jungclaus Changes in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of insolation. We quantify the influence of orbitally induced changes on the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient simulation of the last 6000 years – from the mid-Holocene to today – using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) including a land surface model (JSBACH). The seasonal temperature cycle responds directly to the insolation changes almost everywhere. In the Northern Hemisphere, its amplitude decreases according to an increase in winter insolation and a decrease in summer insolation. In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite is true. Over the Arctic Ocean, decreasing summer insolation leads to an increase in sea-ice cover. The insulating effect of sea ice between the ocean and the atmosphere leads to decreasing heat flux and favors more "continental" conditions over the Arctic Ocean in winter, resulting in strongly decreasing temperatures. Consequently, there are two competing effects: the direct response to insolation changes and a sea-ice insulation effect. The sea-ice insulation effect is stronger, and thus an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal temperature cycle over the Arctic Ocean occurs. This increase is strongest over the Barents Shelf and influences the temperature response over northern Europe. We compare our modeled seasonal temperatures over Europe to paleo reconstructions. We find better agreements in winter temperatures than in summer temperatures and better agreements in northern Europe than in southern Europe, since the model does not reproduce the southern European Holocene summer cooling inferred from the paleo reconstructions. The temperature reconstructions for northern Europe support the notion of the influence of the sea-ice insulation effect on the evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle.

Description: We present the first spatially explicit field reconstruction of the summer (DJF) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Southern Hemisphere. Our multi-proxy reconstruction focuses on Southern South America (SSA, south of 20° S) and is based on a novel spectral analogue method that aims at reconstructing low PDSI frequencies independently from higher frequencies. The analysis of past regimes and trends in extreme wet spells and droughts reveals considerable geographical and temporal variations over the last millennium in SSA. Although recent changes are in some cases notorious, most were not exceptional at the scale of the last thousand years. Our reconstruction highlights that low frequency water availability fluctuations in Patagonia were generally in antiphase with the rest of the subcontinent. Providing the fact that modern patterns of changes are transferable to the past, we show that such antiphases within SSA's hydroclimate could be attributed to the spatially contrasted response of summer PDSI to the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). However, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals are also embedded within the PDSI series during the 20th century. All these ocean-atmospheric forcings acted synergically, but the dominant influence appeared highly compartmentalized through space, highlighting clear AAO- (e.g. South Patagonia) and ENSO- (e.g. the Pampas) dominated regions. Our results therefore emphasize the complexity of water-availability fluctuations in SSA and their important dependence on external ocean-atmospheric forcings.

Description: We expand here the description of the Antarctic temperature variability during the long interglacial period occurring ~400 thousand years before the present (Marine Isotopic Stage, MIS 11). Our study is based on new detailed deuterium measurements conducted on the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica, with a ~50 year temporal resolution. Despite an ice diffusion of a length reaching ~8 cm at MIS 11 depth, the data allow us to highlight a variability at multi-centennial scale for MIS 11, as it has already been observed for the Holocene period (MIS 1). The differences between MIS 1 and MIS 11 are analysed regarding the links between multi-millennial trends and sub-millennial variability. The EPICA Dome C deuterium record shows an increased variability and the onset of millennial to sub-millennial periodicities at the beginning of the final cooling phase of MIS 11. Our findings are robust with respect to sensitivity tests on the somewhat uncertain MIS 11 duration.