Publication Date:
2014-10-30
Description:
In this paper, a global carbon assimilation system (GCAS) is developed for optimizing the global land surface carbon flux at 1° resolution using multiple ecosystem models. In GCAS, three ecosystem models, BEPS, CASA, and CABLE, produce the prior fluxes, and an atmospheric transport model MOZART is used to calculate atmospheric CO 2 concentrations resulting from these prior fluxes. A local ensemble Kalman filter is developed to assimilate atmospheric CO 2 data observed at 92 stations to optimize the carbon flux for six land regions, and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method is implemented in GCAS to calculate the weighted average of the optimized fluxes based on individual ecosystem models. The weights for the models are found according to the closeness of their forecasted CO 2 concentration to observation. Results of this study show that the model weights vary in time and space, allowing for an optimum utilization of different strengths of different ecosystem models. It is also demonstrated that spatial localization is an effective technique to avoid spurious optimization results for regions that are not well constrained by the atmospheric data. Based on the multi-model optimized flux from GCAS, we found that the average global terrestrial carbon sink over the 2002-2008 period is 2.97 ± 1.1 PgC year -1 , and the sinks are 0.88 ± 0.52, 0.27 ± 0.33, 0.67 ± 0.39, 0.90 ± 0.68, 0.21 ± 0.31, 0.04 ± 0.08 PgC year -1 for the North America, South America, Africa, Eurasia, Tropical Asia and Australia, respectively. This multi-model GCAS can be used to improve global carbon cycle estimation.
Print ISSN:
0148-0227
Topics:
Biology
,
Geosciences
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