ALBERT

Description: Santín et al. (2014) report the conversion of different boreal forest biomass pools to pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) during a forest fire, and suggest that ~100 Tg C y −1 may be converted to PyOM in boreal forests globally. They further suggest that PyOM formation represents a missing C sink. The phrase ‘missing C sink’ derives from a lack of closure in the atmospheric C budget. Approximately ⅓ of the CO 2 emitted to the atmosphere via burning of fossil fuels and land use change cannot be accounted for after oceanic uptake and atmospheric accumulations are tallied (Schlesinger and Bernhardt 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: Conservative Detrending applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring-widths with age; Basal Area Correction transforms diameter into basal-area growth; Regional Curve Standardization detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and Size Class Isolation calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring dataset of Melia azedarach , a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results – a growth decline over time – but the widely used Conservative Detrending method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth trend detection), reliability (1- probability of detecting false trends), and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade), and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except Conservative Detrending, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. Basal Area Correction showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend-detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend Size Class Isolation and Regional Curve Standardization, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long-term growth trends. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12697/full) The above article, published online on 18 August 2014 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors, Dr Melanie Harsch and Associate Professor Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, journal Editor‐in‐Chief, Professor Stephen Long, and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed for the following reasons: a coding error affected the results and therefore invalidated the broad‐scale conclusions presented in the article. The article presented broad‐scale patterns of species distribution shifts in response to recent climate change. Unfortunately, it has since been found that one approach used to account for sampling bias, the null model approach, was affected by the coding error. Following the identification of the coding error, we are therefore retracting the article. We thank Drs Adam Wolf and William Anderegg for bringing this issue to our attention. Reference Harsch MA, Hille Ris Lambers J (2014) Species distributions shift downward across western North America. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12697.

Description: Marine organisms are simultaneously exposed to anthropogenic stressors with likely interactive effects, including synergisms in which the combined effects of multiple stressors are greater than the sum of individual effects. Early life stages of marine organisms are potentially vulnerable to the stressors associated with global change, but identifying general patterns across studies, species and response variables is challenging. This review represents the first meta-analysis of multi-stressor studies to target early marine life stages (embryo to larvae), particularly between temperature, salinity and pH as these are the best studied. Knowledge gaps in research on multiple abiotic stressors and early life stages are also identified. The meta-analysis yielded several key results: 1) Synergistic interactions (65% of individual tests) are more common than additive (17%) or antagonistic (17%) interactions. 2) Larvae are generally more vulnerable than embryos to thermal and pH stress. 3) Survival is more likely than sub-lethal responses to be affected by thermal, salinity, and pH stress. 4) Interaction types vary among stressors, ontogenetic stages, and biological responses, but they are more consistent among phyla. 5) Ocean acidification is a greater stressor for calcifying than non-calcifying larvae. Although more ecologically realistic than single-factor studies, multifactorial studies may still oversimplify complex systems, and so meta-analyses of the data from them must be cautiously interpreted with regard to extrapolation to field conditions. Nonetheless our results identify taxa with early life stages that may be particularly vulnerable (e.g. molluscs, echinoderms) or robust (e.g. arthropods, cnidarians) to abiotic stress. We provide a list of recommendations for future multiple stressor studies, particularly those focussed on early marine life stages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models.

Description: Urban green spaces provide ecosystem services to city residents, but their management is hindered by a poor understanding of their ecology. We examined a novel ecosystem service relevant to urban public health and esthetics: the consumption of littered food waste by arthropods. Theory and data from natural systems suggest that the magnitude and resilience of this service should increase with biological diversity. We measured food removal by presenting known quantities of cookies, potato chips, and hot dogs in street medians (24 sites) and parks (21 sites) in New York City, USA. At the same sites, we assessed ground-arthropod diversity and abiotic conditions, including history of flooding during Hurricane Sandy 7 months prior to the study. Arthropod diversity was greater in parks (on average 11 hexapod families and 4.7 ant species per site), than in medians (nine hexapod families and 2.7 ant species per site). However, counter to our diversity-based prediction, arthropods in medians removed 2–3 times more food per day than did those in parks. We detected no effect of flooding (at 19 sites) on this service. Instead, greater food removal was associated with the presence of the introduced pavement ant ( Tetramorium sp. E) and with hotter, drier conditions that may have increased arthropod metabolism. When vertebrates also had access to food, more was removed, indicating that arthropods and vertebrates compete for littered food. We estimate that arthropods alone could remove 4–6.5 kg of food per year in a single street median, reducing its availability to less desirable fauna such as rats. Our results suggest that species identity and habitat may be more relevant than diversity for predicting urban ecosystem services. Even small green spaces such as street medians provide ecosystem services that may complement those of larger habitat patches across the urban landscape.

Description: Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ , and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2–3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.

Description: Recent studies indicate that lianas are increasing in size and abundance relative to trees in neotropical forests. As a result, forest dynamics and carbon balance may be altered through liana-induced suppression of tree growth and increases in tree mortality. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 is hypothesized to be responsible for the increase in neotropical lianas, yet no study has directly compared the relative response of tropical lianas and trees to elevated CO 2 . We explicitly tested whether tropical lianas had a larger response to elevated CO 2 than co-occurring tropical trees, and whether seasonal drought alters the response of either growth form. In two experiments conducted in central Panama, one spanning both wet and dry seasons and one restricted to the dry season, we grew liana (n=12) and tree (n=10) species in open-top growth chambers maintained at ambient or twice-ambient CO 2 levels. Seedlings of eight individuals (four lianas, four trees) were grown in the ground in each chamber for at least three months during each season. We found that both liana and tree seedlings had a significant and positive response to elevated CO 2 (in biomass, leaf area, leaf mass per area, and photosynthesis), but that the relative response to elevated CO 2 for all variables was not significantly greater for lianas than trees regardless of the season. The lack of differences in the relative response between growth forms does not support the hypothesis that elevated CO 2 is responsible for increasing liana size and abundance across the neotropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Potter et al., (2013) highlight the challenges and provide recommendations for progress in representing microclimate in Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which are widely used to predict distributions by establishing relationships between climatic variables and species presence. They show that the grid lengths of published SDMs are typically four orders of magnitude larger than the length of animals under study, and three orders of magnitude larger than plants. They conclude that the mismatch between the length scales of climate data and the species themselves is a major barrier for progress, and that the ideal spatial resolution for climate data in SDMs, notwithstanding practical constraints, is between 1 and 10 times the length of the organism. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate-driven range shifts are ongoing in pelagic marine environments, and ecosystems must respond to combined effects of altered species distributions and environmental drivers. Hypoxic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in midwater environments are shoaling globally; this can affect distributions of species both geographically and vertically along with predator–prey dynamics. Humboldt (jumbo) squid ( Dosidicus gigas ) are highly migratory predators adapted to hypoxic conditions that may be deleterious to their competitors and predators. Consequently, OMZ shoaling may preferentially facilitate foraging opportunities for Humboldt squid. With two separate modeling approaches using unique, long-term data based on in situ observations of predator, prey, and environmental variables, our analyses suggest that Humboldt squid are indirectly affected by OMZ shoaling through effects on a primary food source, myctophid fishes. Our results suggest that this indirect linkage between hypoxia and foraging is an important driver of the ongoing range expansion of Humboldt squid in the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Description: Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1,500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus , and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum . Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the ‘Akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘Akeke'e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau between 1994-1997 and again between 2007-2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1,100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1,250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%) and upper ends of the Plateau (1,350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i ‘Elepaio ( Chasiempis sclateri ), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased transmission of avian malaria. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Biomass carbon accumulation in forest ecosystems is a widespread phenomenon at both regional and global scales. However, as coupled carbon-climate models predicted, a positive feedback could be triggered if accelerated soil carbon decomposition offsets enhanced vegetation growth under a warming climate. It is thus crucial to reveal whether and how soil carbon stock in forest ecosystems has changed over recent decades. However, large-scale changes in soil carbon stock across forest ecosystems have not yet been carefully examined at both regional and global scales, which have been widely perceived as a big bottleneck in untangling carbon-climate feedback. Using newly-developed database and sophisticated data-mining approach, here we evaluated temporal changes in topsoil carbon stock across major forest ecosystem in China and analyzed potential drivers in soil carbon dynamics over broad geographic scale. Our results indicated that topsoil carbon stock increased significantly within all of five major forest types during the period of 1980s-2000s, with an overall rate of 20.0 g C m −2 yr −1 (95% confidence interval, 14.1-25.5). The magnitude of soil carbon accumulation across coniferous forests and coniferous/broadleaved mixed forests exhibited meaningful increases with both mean annual temperature and precipitation. Moreover, soil carbon dynamics across these forest ecosystems was positively associated with clay content, with a larger amount of SOC accumulation occurring in fine-textured soils. In contrast, changes in soil carbon stock across broadleaved forests were insensitive to either climatic or edaphic variables. Overall, these results suggest that soil carbon accumulation does not counteract vegetation carbon sequestration across China's forest ecosystems. The combination of soil carbon accumulation and vegetation carbon sequestration triggers a negative feedback to climate warming, rather than a positive feedback predicted by coupled carbon-climate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Predicted decreases in water availability across the temperate forest biome have the potential to offset gains in carbon (C) uptake from phenology trends, rising atmospheric CO 2 , and nitrogen deposition. While it is well-established that severe droughts reduce the C sink of forests by inducing tree mortality, the impacts of mild but chronic water stress on forest phenology and physiology are largely unknown. We quantified the C consequences of chronic water stress using a 13-year record of tree growth (n = 200 trees), soil moisture, and ecosystem C balance at the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, and a regional 11-year record of tree growth (n 〉300,000 trees) and water availability for the 20 most dominant deciduous broadleaf tree species across the Eastern and Midwestern USA. We show that despite ~26 more days of C assimilation by trees at the MMSF, increasing water stress decreased the number of days of wood production by ~42 days over the same period, reducing the annual accrual of C in woody biomass by 41%. Across the deciduous forest region, water stress induced similar declines in tree growth, particularly for water-demanding “mesophytic” tree species. Given the current replacement of water-stress adapted “xerophytic” tree species by mesophytic tree species, we estimate that chronic water stress has the potential to decrease the C sink of deciduous forests by up to 17% (0.04 Pg C yr −1 ) in the coming decades. This reduction in the C sink due to mesophication and chronic water stress is equivalent to an additional 1 to 3 days of global C emissions from fossil fuel burning each year. Collectively, our results indicate that regional declines in water availability may offset the growth-enhancing effects of other global changes and reduce the extent to which forests ameliorate climate warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P  〈 0.0001). Large mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times ( P  〈 0.0001). Among the other traits examined, species with higher latitudinal and elevational ranges were more likely to respond to climate change in some analyses, whereas hibernation, heterothermy, burrowing, nesting, and study location did not influence responses. These results indicate that some mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management.

Description: Controls on the fate of ~ 277 Pg of soil organic carbon (C) stored in permafrost peatland soils remain poorly understood despite the potential for a significant positive feedback to climate change. Our objective was to quantify the temperature, moisture, organic matter, and microbial controls on soil organic carbon (SOC) losses following permafrost thaw in peat soils across Alaska. We compared the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions from peat samples collected at active layer and permafrost depths when incubated aerobically and anaerobically at -5, -0.5, +4 and +20°C. Temperature had a strong, positive effect on C emissions; global warming potential (GWP) was 〉 3x larger at 20°C than at 4°C. Anaerobic conditions significantly reduced CO 2 emissions and GWP by 47% at 20°C but did not have a significant effect at -0.5°C. Net anaerobic CH 4 production over 30 days was 7.1 ± 2.8 μ g CH 4 -C gC −1 at 20°C. Cumulative CO 2 emissions were related to organic matter chemistry and best predicted by the relative abundance of polysaccharides and proteins (R 2 =0.81) in SOC. Carbon emissions (CO 2 -C + CH 4 -C) from the active layer depth peat ranged from 77% larger to not significantly different than permafrost depths and varied depending on the peat type and peat decomposition stage rather than thermal state. Potential SOC losses with warming depend not only on the magnitude of temperature increase and hydrology but also organic matter quality, permafrost history, and vegetation dynamics, which will ultimately determine net radiative forcing due to permafrost thaw. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Thermal stress affects organism performance differently depending on the ambient temperature to which they are acclimatized, which varies along latitudinal gradients. This study investigated whether differences in physiological responses to temperature are consistent with regional differences in temperature regimes for the stony coral Oculina patagonica . To resolve this question we experimentally assessed how colonies originating from four different locations characterized by 〉3°C variation in mean maximum annual temperature responded to warming from 20 to 32°C. We assessed plasticity in symbiont identity, density, and photosynthetic properties, together with changes in host tissue biomass. Results show that, without changes in the type of symbiont hosted by coral colonies, O. patagonica has limited capacity to acclimatize to future warming. We found little evidence of variation in overall thermal tolerance, or in thermal optima, in response to spatial variation in ambient temperature. Given that the invader O. patagonica is a relatively new member of the Mediterranean coral fauna our results also suggest that coral populations may need to remain isolated for a long period of time for thermal adaptation to potentially take place. Our study indicates that for O. patagonica , mortality associated with thermal stress manifests primarily through tissue breakdown under moderate but prolonged warming (which does not impair symbiont photosynthesis and, therefore, does not lead to bleaching). Consequently, projected global warming is likely to causes repeat incidents of partial and whole colony mortality and might drive a gradual range contraction of Mediterranean corals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Inland waters were recently recognized to be important sources of methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the atmosphere, and including inland water emissions in large scale greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets may potentially offset the estimated carbon sink in many areas. However, the lack of GHG flux measurements and well-defined inland water areas for extrapolation, make the magnitude of the potential offset unclear. This study presents coordinated flux measurements of CH 4 and CO 2 in multiple lakes, ponds, rivers, open wells, reservoirs, springs, and canals in India. All these inland water types, representative of common aquatic ecosystems in India, emitted substantial amounts of CH 4 and a major fraction also emitted CO 2 . The total CH 4 flux (including ebullition and diffusion) from all the 45 systems ranged from from 0.01 to 52.1 mmol m −2 d −1 , with a mean of 7.8 ± 12.7 (mean ± 1SD) mmol m −2 d −1 . The mean surface water CH 4 concentration was 3.8 ± 14.5 μ M (range 0.03 to 92.1 μ M). The CO 2 fluxes ranged from -28.2 to 262.4 mmol m −2 d −1 and the mean flux was 51.9 ± 71.1 mmol m −2 d −1 . The mean partial pressure of CO 2 was 2927 ± 3269 μ atm (range - 400 to 11467 μ atm). Conservative extrapolation to whole India, considering the specific area of the different water types studied, yielded average emissions of 2.1 Tg CH 4 yr −1 and 22.0 Tg CO 2 yr −1 from India's inland waters. When expressed as CO 2 equivalents, this amounts to 75 Tg CO 2 equivalents yr −1 (53 – 98 Tg CO 2 equivalents yr −1 ; ± 1SD) , with CH 4 contributing 71%. Hence, average inland water GHG emissions, which were not previously considered, correspond to 42% (30 – 55%) of the estimated land carbon sink of India. Thereby this study illustrates the importance of considering inland water GHG exchange in large scale assessments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ‘Blue Carbon’, which is carbon captured by marine living organisms, has recently been highlighted as a new option for climate change mitigation initiatives. In particular, coastal ecosystems have been recognized as significant carbon stocks because of their high burial rates and long-term sequestration of carbon. However, the direct contribution of Blue Carbon to the uptake of atmospheric CO 2 through air-sea gas exchange remains unclear. We performed in situ measurements of carbon flows, including air-sea CO 2 fluxes, dissolved inorganic carbon changes, net ecosystem production, and carbon burial rates in the boreal (Furen), temperate (Kurihama), and subtropical (Fukido) seagrass meadows of Japan from 2010 to 2013. In particular, the air-sea CO 2 flux was measured using three methods: the bulk formula method, the floating chamber method, and the eddy covariance method. Our empirical results show that submerged autotrophic vegetation in shallow coastal waters can be functionally a sink for atmospheric CO 2. This finding is contrary to the conventional perception that most near-shore ecosystems are sources of atmospheric CO 2 . The key factor determining whether or not coastal ecosystems directly decrease the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 may be net ecosystem production. This study thus identifies a new ecosystem function of coastal vegetated systems; they are direct sinks of atmospheric CO 2 .

Description: Land Surface Phenology (LSP) is the most direct representation of intra-annual dynamics of vegetated land surfaces as observed from satellite imagery. LSP plays a key role in characterizing land-surface fluxes, and is central to accurately parameterizing terrestrial biosphere–atmosphere interactions, as well as climate models. In this paper we present an evaluation of Pan-European LSP and its changes over the past 30 years, using the longest continuous record of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) available to date in combination with a landscape-based aggregation scheme. We used indicators of Start-Of-Season, End-Of-Season and Growing Season Length (SOS, EOS and GSL, respectively) for the period 1982–2011 to test for temporal trends in activity of terrestrial vegetation and their spatial distribution. We aggregated pixels into ecologically representative spatial units using the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP) and assessed the relative contribution of spring and autumn phenology. GSL increased significantly by 18–24 days/decade over 18–30% of the land area of Europe, depending on methodology. This trend varied extensively within and between climatic zones and landscape classes. The areas of greatest growing-season lengthening were the Continental and Boreal zones, with hotspots concentrated in southern Fennoscandia, Western Russia and pockets of continental Europe. For the Atlantic and Steppic zones, we found an average shortening of the growing season with hotspots in Western France, the Po valley, and around the Caspian Sea. In many zones, changes in the NDVI-derived end-of-season contributed more to the GSL trend than changes in spring green-up, resulting in asymmetric trends. This underlines the importance of investigating senescence and its underlying processes more closely as a driver of LSP and global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine how reductions in snow accumulation, expected with climate change, directly affect dynamics of soil winter frost, and indirectly soil microbial biomass and activity during the growing season. Soils from lower elevation plots, which accumulated less snow and experienced more soil temperature variability during the winter (and likely more freeze/thaw events), had less extractable inorganic nitrogen (N), lower rates of microbial N production via potential net N mineralization and nitrification, and higher potential microbial respiration during the growing season. Potential nitrate production rates during the growing season were particularly sensitive to changes in winter snow pack accumulation and winter soil temperature variability, especially in spring. Effects of elevation and winter conditions on N transformation rates differed from those on potential microbial respiration, suggesting that N-related processes might respond differently to winter climate change in northern hardwood forests than C-related processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.

Description: Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha -1 yr -1 ) to climate change. Here we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97,361 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6–23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP whilst those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 ° C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a “client” (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. The present study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical ( Lysmata amboinensis ) and temperate ( L. seticaudata ) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+ 3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24 – 27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. These data suggested tropical cleaner shrimp were less able to acclimatize and would be more vulnerable to global warming than temperate species like Lysmata seticaudata which evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. This indicated tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health and structuring of tropical coastal communities (e.g., coral reefs). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Despite decades of research, how climate warming alters the global flux of soil respiration is still poorly characterized. Here, we use meta-analysis to synthesize 202 soil respiration datasets from 50 ecosystem warming experiments across multiple terrestrial ecosystems. We found that, on average, warming by 2 °C increased soil respiration by 12% during the early warming years, but warming-induced drought partially offset this effect. More significantly, the two components of soil respiration, heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration, showed distinct responses. The warming effect on autotrophic respiration was not statistically detectable during the early warming years, but nonetheless decreased with treatment duration. In contrast, warming by 2 °C increased heterotrophic respiration by an average of 21%, and this stimulation remained stable over the warming duration. This result challenged the assumption that microbial activity would acclimate to the rising temperature. Together, our findings demonstrate that distinguishing heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration would allow us better understand and predict the long-term response of soil respiration to warming. The dependence of soil respiration on soil moisture condition also underscores the importance of incorporating warming-induced soil hydrological changes when modeling soil respiration under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding how copepods may respond to ocean acidification (OA) is critical for risk assessments of ocean ecology and biogeochemistry. The perception that copepods are insensitive to OA is largely based on experiments with adult females. Their apparent resilience to increased carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ) concentrations has supported the view that copepods are ‘winners’ under OA. Here, we show that this conclusion is not robust, that sensitivity across different life stages is significantly misrepresented by studies solely using adult females. Stage-specific responses to pCO 2 (385–6000 μatm) were studied across different life stages of a calanoid copepod, monitoring for lethal and sublethal responses. Mortality rates varied significantly across the different life stages, with nauplii showing the highest lethal effects; nauplii mortality rates increased threefold when pCO 2 concentrations reached 1000 μatm (year 2100 scenario) with LC 50 at 1084 μatm pCO 2 . In comparison, eggs, early copepodite stages, and adult males and females were not affected lethally until pCO 2 concentrations ≥3000 μatm. Adverse effects on reproduction were found, with 〉35% decline in nauplii recruitment at 1000 μatm pCO 2 . This suppression of reproductive scope, coupled with the decreased survival of early stage progeny at this pCO 2 concentration, has clear potential to damage population growth dynamics in this species. The disparity in responses seen across the different developmental stages emphasizes the need for a holistic life-cycle approach to make species-level projections to climate change. Significant misrepresentation and error propagation can develop from studies which attempt to project outcomes to future OA conditions solely based on single life history stage exposures.

Description: Identifying the type and strength of interactions between local anthropogenic and other stressors can help to set achievable management targets for degraded marine ecosystems and support their resilience by identifying local actions. We undertook a meta-analysis, using data from 118 studies to test the hypothesis that ongoing global declines in the dominant habitat along temperate rocky coastlines, forests of canopy-forming algae and/or their replacement by mat-forming algae are driven by the non-additive interactions between local anthropogenic stressors that can be addressed through management actions (fishing, heavy metal pollution, nutrient enrichment and high sediment loads) and other stressors (presence of competitors or grazers, removal of canopy algae, limiting or excessive light, low or high salinity, increasing temperature, high wave exposure, and high UV or CO 2 ), not as easily amenable to management actions. In general, the cumulative effects of local anthropogenic and other stressors had negative effects on the growth and survival of canopy-forming algae. Conversely, the growth or survival of mat-forming algae was either unaffected or significantly enhanced by the same pairs of stressors. Contrary to our predictions, the majority of interactions between stressors were additive. There were however synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment and heavy metals, the presence of competitors, low light, and increasing temperature, leading to amplified negative effects on canopy-forming algae. There were also synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment and increasing CO 2 and temperature leading to amplified positive effects on mat-forming algae. Our review of the current literature shows that management of nutrient levels, rather than fishing, heavy metal pollution or high sediment loads, would provide the greatest opportunity for preventing the shift from canopy to mat-forming algae, particularly in enclosed bays or estuaries because of the higher prevalence of synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment with other local and global stressors, and as such it should be prioritised. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane. Here, we assess controls on methane flux using a database of approximately 19 000 instantaneous measurements from 71 wetland sites located across subtropical, temperate, and northern high latitude regions. Our analyses confirm general controls on wetland methane emissions from soil temperature, water table, and vegetation, but also show that these relationships are modified depending on wetland type (bog, fen, or swamp), region (subarctic to temperate), and disturbance. Fen methane flux was more sensitive to vegetation and less sensitive to temperature than bog or swamp fluxes. The optimal water table for methane flux was consistently below the peat surface in bogs, close to the peat surface in poor fens, and above the peat surface in rich fens. However, the largest flux in bogs occurred when dry 30-day averaged antecedent conditions were followed by wet conditions, while in fens and swamps, the largest flux occurred when both 30-day averaged antecedent and current conditions were wet. Drained wetlands exhibited distinct characteristics, e.g. the absence of large flux following wet and warm conditions, suggesting that the same functional relationships between methane flux and environmental conditions cannot be used across pristine and disturbed wetlands. Together, our results suggest that water table and temperature are dominant controls on methane flux in pristine bogs and swamps, while other processes, such as vascular transport in pristine fens, have the potential to partially override the effect of these controls in other wetland types. Because wetland types vary in methane emissions and have distinct controls, these ecosystems need to be considered separately to yield reliable estimates of global wetland methane release.

Description: Increased nitrogen (N) depositions expected in the future endanger the diversity and stability of ecosystems primarily limited by N, but also often co-limited by other nutrients like phosphorus (P). In this context a nutrient manipulation experiment (NUMEX) was set up in a tropical montane rainforest in southern Ecuador, an area identified as biodiversity hotspot. We examined impacts of elevated N and P availability on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), a group of obligate biotrophic plant symbionts with an important role in soil nutrient cycles. We tested the hypothesis that increased nutrient availability will reduce AMF abundance, reduce species richness and shift the AMF community towards lineages previously shown to be favored by fertilized conditions. NUMEX was designed as a full factorial randomized block design. Soil cores were taken after two years of nutrient additions in plots located at 2000m above sea level. Roots were extracted and intraradical AMF abundance determined microscopically; the AMF community was analyzed by 454-pyrosequencing targeting the large subunit rDNA. We identified 74 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) with a large proportion of Diversisporales. N additions provoked a significant decrease in intraradical abundance, whereas AMF richness was reduced significantly by N and P additions, with the strongest effect in the combined treatment (39% fewer OTUs), mainly influencing rare species. We identified a differential effect on phylogenetic groups, with Diversisporales richness mainly reduced by N additions in contrast to Glomerales highly significantly affected solely by P. Regarding AMF community structure we observed a compositional shift when analyzing presence/absence data following P additions. In conclusion, N and P additions in this ecosystem affect AMF abundance, but especially AMF species richness; these changes might influence plant community composition and productivity and by that various ecosystem processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: With the rapidly expanding ecological footprint of agriculture, the design of farmed landscapes will play an increasingly important role for both carbon storage and biodiversity protection. Carbon and biodiversity can be enhanced by integrating natural habitats into agricultural lands, but a key question is whether benefits are maximized by including many small features throughout the landscape (‘land-sharing’ agriculture) or a few large contiguous blocks alongside intensive farmland (‘land-sparing’ agriculture). In this study, we are the first to integrate carbon storage alongside multi-taxa biodiversity assessments to compare land-sparing and land-sharing frameworks. We do so by sampling carbon stocks and biodiversity (birds and dung beetles) in landscapes containing agriculture and forest within the Colombian Chocó-Andes, a zone of high global conservation priority. We show that woodland fragments embedded within a matrix of cattle pasture hold less carbon per unit area than contiguous primary or advanced secondary forests (〉15 years). Farmland sites also support less diverse bird and dung beetle communities than contiguous forests, even when farmland retains high levels of woodland habitat cover. Landscape simulations based on these data suggest that land-sparing strategies would be more beneficial for both carbon storage and biodiversity than land-sharing strategies across a range of production levels. Biodiversity benefits of land-sparing are predicted to be similar whether spared lands protect primary or advanced secondary forests, owing to the close similarity of bird and dung beetle communities between the two forest classes. Land-sparing schemes that encourage the protection and regeneration of natural forest blocks thus provide a synergy between carbon and biodiversity conservation, and represent a promising strategy for reducing the negative impacts of agriculture on tropical ecosystems. However, further studies examining a wider range of ecosystem services will be necessary to fully understand the links between land-allocation strategies and long-term ecosystem service provision.

Description: Given that forests represent the primary terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO 2 , projections of future carbon (C) storage hinge on forest responses to climate variation. Models of gross primary production (GPP) responses to water stress are commonly based on remotely sensed changes in canopy “greenness” (e.g. normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI). However, many forests have low spectral sensitivity to water stress (SSWS) – defined here as drought-induced decline in GPP without a change in greenness. Current satellite-derived estimates of GPP use a vapor pressure deficit (VPD) scalar to account for the low SWSS of forests, but fail to capture their responses to water stress. Our objectives were to characterize differences in SSWS among forested and non-forested ecosystems, and to develop an improved framework for predicting the impacts of water stress on GPP in forests with low SSWS. First, we paired two independent drought indices with NDVI data for the conterminous US from 2000-2011, and examined the relationship between water stress and NDVI. We found that forests had lower SSWS than non-forests regardless of drought index or duration. We then compared satellite-derived estimates of GPP with eddy-covariance observations of GPP in two deciduous broadleaf forests with low SSWS: the Missouri Ozark (MO) and Morgan Monroe State Forest (MMSF) AmeriFlux sites. Model estimates of GPP that used VPD scalars were poorly correlated with observations of GPP at MO (r 2 =0.09) and MMSF (r 2 =0.38). When we included the NDVI responses to water stress of adjacent ecosystems with high SSWS into a model based solely on temperature and greenness, we substantially improved predictions of GPP at MO (r 2 =0.83) and for an extreme drought year at the MMSF (r 2 = 0.82). Collectively, our results suggest that large-scale estimates of GPP that capture variation in SSWS among ecosystems could improve predictions of C uptake by forests under drought. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (〉2000masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: 1) is there an increased fire response with elevation? ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g. human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasi-cyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particular common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g. grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build-up cyclicity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and within-host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla ; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. Based on these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host-parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host-parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Nitrogen (N) deposition significantly affects the soil carbon (C) cycle process of forests. However, the influence of different types of N on it was still unclear. In this work, ammonium nitrate was selected as an inorganic N (IN) sources, while urea and glycine were chosen as organic N (ON) sources. Different ratios of IN to ON (1:4, 2:3, 3:2, 4:1, and 5:0) were mixed with equal total amounts and then used to fertilize temperate forest soils for 2 years. Results showed that IN deposition inhibited soil C cycle processes, such as soil respiration, soil organic C decomposition, and enzymatic activities, and induced the accumulation of recalcitrant organic C. By contrast, ON deposition promoted these processes. Addition of ON also resulted in accelerated transformation of recalcitrant compounds into labile compounds and increased CO 2 efflux. Meanwhile, greater ON deposition may convert C sequestration in forest soils into C source. These results indicated the importance of the IN to ON ratio in controlling the soil C cycle, which can consequently change the ecological effect of N deposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The depth and duration of snow pack is declining in the northeastern United States as a result of warming air temperatures. Since snow insulates soil, a decreased snow pack can increase the frequency of soil freezing, which has been shown to have important biogeochemical implications. One of the most notable effects of soil freezing is increased inorganic nitrogen losses from soil during the following growing season. Decreased nitrogen retention is thought to be due to reduced root uptake, but has not yet been measured directly. We conducted a 2-year snow-removal experiment at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA to determine the effects of soil freezing on root uptake and leaching of inorganic nitrogen simultaneously. Snow removal significantly increased the depth of maximal soil frost by 37.2 and 39.5 cm in the first and second winters, respectively ( P  〈   0.001 in 2008/2009 and 2009/2010). As a consequence of soil freezing, root uptake of ammonium declined significantly during the first and second growing seasons after snow removal ( P  =   0.023 for 2009 and P  =   0.005 for 2010). These observed reductions in root nitrogen uptake coincided with significant increases in soil solution concentrations of ammonium in the Oa horizon ( P  =   0.001 for 2009 and 2010) and nitrate in the B horizon ( P  〈   0.001 and P  =   0.003 for 2009 and 2010, respectively). The excess flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen from the Oa horizon that was attributable to soil freezing was 7.0 and 2.8 kg N ha −1 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The excess flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen from the B horizon was lower, amounting to 1.7 and 0.7 kg N ha −1 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Results of this study provide direct evidence that soil freezing reduces root nitrogen uptake, demonstrating that the effects of winter climate change on root function has significant consequences for nitrogen retention and loss in forest ecosystems.

Description: Despite concern about the status of carbon (C) in the Arctic tundra, there is currently little information on how plant respiration varies in response to environmental change in this region. We quantified the impact of long-term nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) treatments and greenhouse warming on the short-term temperature ( T ) response and sensitivity of leaf respiration ( R ), the high T threshold of R , and associated traits in shoots of the Arctic shrub Betula nana in experimental plots at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Respiration only acclimated to greenhouse warming in plots provided with both N and P (resulting in a ~30% reduction in carbon efflux in shoots measured at 10 and 20 °C), suggesting a nutrient-dependence of metabolic adjustment. Neither greenhouse nor N+P treatments impacted on the respiratory sensitivity to T ( Q 10 ); overall Q 10 values decreased with increasing measuring T, from ~3.0 at 5 °C to ~1.5 at 35 °C. New high-resolution measurements of R across a range of measuring T s (25-70 °C) yielded insights into the T at which maximal rates of R occurred ( T max ). Although growth temperature did not affect T max , N+P fertilization increased T max values ~5 °C, from 53 to 58 °C. N+P fertilized shoots exhibited greater rates of R than non-fertilized shoots, with this effect diminishing under greenhouse warming. Collectively, our results highlight the nutrient-dependence of thermal acclimation of leaf R in B. nana , suggesting that the metabolic efficiency allowed via thermal acclimation may be impaired at current levels of soil nutrient availability. This finding has important implications for predicting carbon fluxes in Arctic ecosystems, particularly if soil N and P become more abundant in the future as the tundra warms. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems is particularly sensitive to global environmental change. Leaf respiration ( R ), a temperature-dependent key process in determining the carbon balance, is not well understood in Arctic plants. The potential for plants to acclimate to warmer conditions could strongly impact future global carbon balance. Two key unanswered questions are (1) whether short-term temperature responses can predict long-term respiratory responses to growth in elevated temperatures and (2) to what extent the constant daylight conditions of the Arctic growing season inhibit leaf respiration. In two dominant Arctic species Eriophorum vaginatum (tussock grass) and Betula nana (woody shrub), we assessed the extent of respiratory inhibition in the light ( R L / R D ), respiratory response to short-term temperature change, and respiratory acclimation to long-term warming treatments. We found that R of both species is strongly inhibited by light (averaging 35% across all measurement temperatures). In E. vaginatum both R L and R D acclimated to the long-term warming treatment, reducing the magnitude of respiratory response relative to the short-term response to temperature increase. In B. nana , both R L and R D responded to short-term temperature increase but showed no acclimation to the long-term warming. The ability to predict plant respiratory response to global warming with short-term temperature responses will depend on species-specific acclimation potential and the differential response of R L and R D to temperature. With projected woody shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra and continued warming, changing species dominance between these two functional groups, may impact ecosystem respiratory response and carbon balance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally-based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1–7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future.

Description: Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition affects unproductive remote alpine and circumpolar ecosystems, which are often considered sentinels of global change. Human activities and forest fires can also elevate phosphorus (P) deposition, possibly compounding the ecological effects of increased N deposition given the ubiquity of nutrient co-limitation of primary producers. Low N:P ratios coupled with evidence of NP-limitation from bioassays led us to hypothesize that P indirectly stimulates phytoplankton by amplifying the direct positive effect of N (i.e. serial N-limitation) in alpine ponds. We tested the hypothesis using the first replicated N×P enrichment experiment conducted at the whole-ecosystem level, which involved 12 alpine ponds located in the low N-deposition backcountry of the eastern Front Range of the Canadian Rockies. Although applications of N and P elevated ambient N and P concentrations by 2 – 5×, seston and plankton remained relatively unaffected in the amended ponds. However, additions of ammonium nitrate elevated the δ 15 N signals of both primary producers and herbivores (fairy shrimp; Anostraca), attesting to trophic transfer of N deposition to consumers. Further, in-situ bioassays revealed that grazing by high ambient densities of fairy shrimp together with potential competition from algae lining the pond bottoms suppressed the otherwise serially N-limited response by phytoplankton. Our findings highlight how indirect effects of biotic interactions rather the often implicit direct effects of chemical changes can regulate the sensitivities of extreme ecosystems to nutrient deposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The eutrophication of lowland lakes in Europe by excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) is severe because of the long history of land-cover change and agricultural intensification. The ecological and socio-economic effects of eutrophication are well understood but its effect on organic carbon (OC) sequestration by lakes and its change over time has not been determined. Here we compile data from ~90 culturally-impacted European lakes (~60% are eutrophic, Total P [TP] 〉30 μ g P l −1 ) and determine the extent to which OC burial rates have increased over the past 100 to 150 years. The average focussing corrected, OC accumulation rate (C AR FC ) for the period 1950–1990 was ~60 g C m −2 yr −1 , and for lakes with 〉100 μ g TP l −1 the average was ~100 g C m −2 yr −1 . The ratio of post-1950 to 1900–1950 C AR is low (~1.5) indicating that C accumulation rates have been high throughout the 20 th century. Compared to background estimates of OC burial (~5–10 g C m −2 yr −1 ), contemporary rates have increased by at least four to five fold. The statistical relationship between C AR FC and TP derived from this study (r 2 = 0.5) can be used to estimate OC burial at sites lacking estimates of sediment C burial. The implications of eutrophication, diagenesis, lake morphometry and sediment focussing as controls of OC burial rates are considered. A conservative interpretation of the results of the present study suggests that lowland European meso- to eutrophic lakes with 〉30 μ g TP l −1 had OC burial rates in excess of 50 g C m −2 yr −1 over the past century, indicating that previous estimates of regional lake OC burial have seriously underestimated their contribution to European carbon sequestration. Enhanced OC burial by lakes is one positive side-effect of the otherwise negative impact of the anthropogenic disruption of nutrient cycles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape-induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape-induced phenological patterns are easily observed over wide areas and may be used as a unique diagnostic for sources of ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity to hydroclimate change.

Description: Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (〈100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semi-deciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 AD, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid-20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion to cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semi-arid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multi-decadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here burning steadily increased since the mid-20 th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs “hindcasting” of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.

Description: Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.

Description: Global climate change is expected to shift regional rainfall patterns, influencing species distributions where they depend on water availability. Comparative studies have demonstrated that C 4 grasses inhabit drier habitats than C 3 relatives, but that both C 3 and C 4 photosynthesis are susceptible to drought. However, C 4 plants may show advantages in hydraulic performance in dry environments. We investigated the effects of seasonal variation in water availability on leaf physiology, using a common garden experiment in the Eastern Cape of South Africa to compare 12 locally occurring grass species from C 4 and C 3 sister lineages. Photosynthesis was always higher in the C 4 than C 3 grasses across every month, but the difference was not statistically significant during the wettest months. Surprisingly, stomatal conductance was typically lower in the C 3 than C 4 grasses, with the peak monthly average for C 3 species being similar to that of C 4 leaves. In water-limited, rain-fed plots, the photosynthesis of C 4 leaves was between 2.0 and 7.4  μ mol m −2  s −1 higher, stomatal conductance almost double, and transpiration 60% higher than for C 3 plants. Although C 4 average instantaneous water-use efficiencies were higher (2.4–8.1 mmol mol −1 ) than C 3 averages (0.7–6.8 mmol mol −1 ), differences were not as great as we expected and were statistically significant only as drought became established. Photosynthesis declined earlier during drought among C 3 than C 4 species, coincident with decreases in stomatal conductance and transpiration. Eventual decreases in photosynthesis among C 4 plants were linked with declining midday leaf water potentials. However, during the same phase of drought, C 3 species showed significant decreases in hydrodynamic gradients that suggested hydraulic failure. Thus, our results indicate that stomatal and hydraulic behaviour during drought enhances the differences in photosynthesis between C 4 and C 3 species. We suggest that these drought responses are important for understanding the advantages of C 4 photosynthesis under field conditions.

Description: The forests of northeastern China store nearly half of the country's total biomass carbon stocks. In this study, we investigated the changes in forest biomass by using satellite observations and found that a significant increase in forest biomass took place between 2001 and 2010. To determine the possible reasons for this change, several statistical methods were used to analyze the correlations between forest biomass dynamics and forest disturbances (i.e., fires, insect damage, logging, and afforestation and reforestation), climatic factors, and forest development. Results showed that forest development was the most important contributor to the increasing trend of forest biomass from 2001 to 2010, and climate controls were the secondary important factor. Among the four types of forest disturbance considered in this study, forest recovery from fires, and afforestation and reforestation during the past few decades played an important role in short-term biomass dynamics. This study provided observational evidence and valuable information for the relationships between forest biomass and climate as well as forest disturbances. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions where potato is an important crop were evaluated: the Andean Highlands, Indogangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared to historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agroecosystems analysed varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Partially decomposed plant and animal remains have been accumulating in organic soils (i.e. 〉40% C content) for millennia, making them the largest terrestrial carbon store. There is growing concern that, in a warming world, soil biotic processing will accelerate and release greenhouse gases that further exacerbate climate change. However, the magnitude of this response remains uncertain as the constraints are abiotic, biotic and interactive. Here, we examined the influence of resource quality and biological activity on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration under different soil moisture regimes. Organic soils were sampled from 13 boreal and peatland ecosystems located in the UK, Spain, Finland and Sweden, representing a natural resource quality range of C, N and P. They were incubated at 4 temperatures (4, 10, 15 and 20°C) at either 60% or 100% water holding capacity (WHC). Our results showed that chemical and biological properties play an important role in determining soil respiration responses to temperature and moisture changes. High soil C:P and C:N ratios were symptomatic of slow C turnover and long-term C accumulation. In boreal soils, low bacterial to fungal ratios were related to greater temperature sensitivity of respiration, which was amplified in drier conditions. This contrasted with peatland soils which were dominated by bacterial communities and enchytraeid grazing, resulting in a more rapid C turnover under warmer and wetter conditions. The unexpected acceleration of C mineralization under high moisture contents was possibly linked to the primarily role of fermented organic matter, instead of oxygen, in mediating microbial decomposition. We conclude that in order to improve C model simulations of soil respiration a better resolution of the interactions occurring between climate, resource quality and the decomposer community will be required. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one third of global human protein consumption. Here a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision-making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The consequences of deforestation for aboveground biodiversity have been a scientific and political concern for decades. In contrast, despite being a dominant component of biodiversity that is essential to the functioning of ecosystems, the responses of belowground biodiversity to forest removal have received less attention. Single-site studies suggest that soil microbes can be highly responsive to forest removal, but responses are highly variable, with negligible effects in some regions. Using high throughput sequencing, we characterize the effects of deforestation on microbial communities across multiple biomes and explore what determines the vulnerability of microbial communities to this vegetative change. We reveal consistent directional trends in the microbial community response, yet the magnitude of this vegetation effect varied between sites, and was explained strongly by soil texture. In sandy sites, the difference in vegetation type caused shifts in a suite of edaphic characteristics, driving substantial differences in microbial community composition. In contrast, fine-textured soil buffered microbes against these effects and there were minimal differences between communities in forest and grassland soil. These microbial community changes were associated with distinct changes in the microbial catabolic profile, placing community changes in an ecosystem functioning context. The universal nature of these patterns allows us to predict where deforestation will have the strongest effects on soil biodiversity, and how these effects could be mitigated.

Description: Corals thrive in low nutrient environments and the conservation of these globally imperiled ecosystems is largely dependent on mitigating the effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. However, to better understand the implications of anthropogenic nutrients requires a heightened understanding of baseline nutrient dynamics within these ecosystems. Here, we provide a novel perspective on coral reef nutrient dynamics by examining the role of fish communities in the supply and storage of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). We quantified fish-mediated nutrient storage and supply for 144 species and modeled these data onto 172 fish communities (71 729 individual fish), in four types of coral reefs, as well as seagrass and mangrove ecosystems, throughout the Northern Antilles. Fish communities supplied and stored large quantities of nutrients, with rates varying among ecosystem types. The size structure and diversity of the fish communities best predicted N and P supply and storage and N : P supply, suggesting that alterations to fish communities (e.g., overfishing) will have important implications for nutrient dynamics in these systems. The stoichiometric ratio (N : P) for storage in fish mass (~8 : 1) and supply (~20 : 1) was notably consistent across the four coral reef types (but not seagrass or mangrove ecosystems). Published nutrient enrichment studies on corals show that deviations from this N : P supply ratio may be associated with poor coral fitness, providing qualitative support for the hypothesis that corals and their symbionts may be adapted to specific ratios of nutrient supply. Consumer nutrient stoichiometry provides a baseline from which to better understand nutrient dynamics in coral reef and other coastal ecosystems, information that is greatly needed if we are to implement more effective measures to ensure the future health of the world's oceans.

Description: Soil biodiversity plays a key role in regulating the processes that underpin the delivery of ecosystem goods and services in terrestrial ecosystems. Agricultural intensification is known to change the diversity of individual groups of soil biota, but less is known about how intensification affects biodiversity of the soil food web as a whole, and whether or not these effects may be generalized across regions. We examined biodiversity in soil food webs from grasslands, extensive and intensive rotations in four agricultural regions across Europe: in Sweden, the UK, the Czech Republic and Greece. Effects of land use intensity were quantified based on structure and diversity among functional groups in the soil food web, as well as on community-weighted mean body mass of soil fauna. We also elucidate land use intensity effects on diversity of taxonomic units within taxonomic groups of soil fauna. We found that between regions soil food web diversity measures were variable, but that increasing land use intensity caused highly consistent responses. In particular, land use intensification reduced the complexity in the soil food webs, as well as the community-weighted mean body mass of soil fauna. In all regions across Europe, species richness of earthworms, Collembolans and oribatid mites was negatively affected by increased land use intensity. The taxonomic distinctness, which is a measure of taxonomic relatedness of species in a community that is independent of species richness, was also reduced by land use intensification. We conclude that intensive agriculture reduces soil biodiversity, making soil food webs less diverse and composed of smaller bodied organisms. Land use intensification results in fewer functional groups of soil biota with fewer and taxonomically more closely related species. We discuss how these changes in soil biodiversity due to land use intensification may threaten the functioning of soil in agricultural production systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 30,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS) – part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network – predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Description: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration alters the chemistry of the oceans towards more acidic conditions. Polar oceans are particularly affected due to their low temperature, low carbonate content and mixing patterns, for instance upwellings. Calcifying organisms are expected to be highly impacted by the decrease in the oceans' pH and carbonate ions concentration. In particular, sea urchins, members of the phylum Echinodermata, are hypothesized to be at risk due to their high-magnesium calcite skeleton. However, tolerance to ocean acidification in metazoans is first linked to acid–base regulation capacities of the extracellular fluids. No information on this is available to date for Antarctic echinoderms and inference from temperate and tropical studies needs support. In this study, we investigated the acid–base status of 9 species of sea urchins (3 cidaroids, 2 regular euechinoids and 4 irregular echinoids). It appears that Antarctic regular euechinoids seem equipped with similar acid–base regulation systems as tropical and temperate regular euechinoids but could rely on more passive ion transfer systems, minimizing energy requirements. Cidaroids have an acid–base status similar to that of tropical cidaroids. Therefore Antarctic cidaroids will most probably not be affected by decreasing seawater pH, the pH drop linked to ocean acidification being negligible in comparison of the naturally low pH of the coelomic fluid. Irregular echinoids might not suffer from reduced seawater pH if acidosis of the coelomic fluid pH does not occur but more data on their acid–base regulation are needed. Combining these results with the resilience of Antarctic sea urchin larvae strongly suggests that these organisms might not be the expected victims of ocean acidification. However, data on the impact of other global stressors such as temperature and of the combination of the different stressors needs to be acquired to assess the sensitivity of these organisms to global change.

Description: Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: i ) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes, and ii ) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients (total nitrogen [TN], total phosphorus [TP]) and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semi-conservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically-derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased 〉500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN 〉200%, TP 〉100%) and ions (〉100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Predicting rice ( Oryza sativa ) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modelling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]). We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10% of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO 2 ] and temperature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Freshwater marshes are well-known for their ecological functions in carbon sequestration, but complete carbon budgets that include both methane (CH 4 ) and lateral carbon fluxes for these ecosystems are rarely available. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first full carbon balance for a freshwater marsh where vertical gaseous (carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 ) and lateral hydrologic fluxes (dissolved and particulate organic carbon) have been simultaneously measured for multiple years (2011-2013). Carbon accumulation in the sediments suggested that the marsh was a long-term carbon sink and accumulated ~96.9±10.3 (±95% CI) g C m −2 yr −1 during the last ~50 years. However, abnormal climate conditions in the last three years turned the marsh to a source of carbon (42.7±23.4 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Gross ecosystem production and ecosystem respiration were the two largest fluxes in the annual carbon budget. Yet, these two fluxes compensated each other to a large extent and led to the marsh being a CO 2 sink in 2011 (−78.8±33.6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), near CO 2 -neutral in 2012 (29.7±37.2 g C m −2 yr −1 ), and a CO 2 source in 2013 (92.9±28.0 g C m −2 yr −1 ). The CH 4 emission was consistently high with a three-year average of 50.8±1.0 g C m −2 yr −1 . Considerable hydrologic carbon flowed laterally both into and out of the marsh (108.3±5.4 and 86.2±10.5 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively). In total, hydrologic carbon fluxes contributed ~23±13 g C m −2 yr −1 to the three-year carbon budget. Our findings highlight the importance of lateral hydrologic inflows/outflows in wetland carbon budgets, especially in those characterized by a flow-through hydrologic regime. In addition, different carbon fluxes responded unequally to climate variability/anomalies and, thus, the total carbon budgets may vary drastically among years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate warming is affecting the Arctic in multiple ways, including via increased dominance of deciduous shrubs. Although many studies have focused on how this vegetation shift is altering nutrient cycling and energy balance, few have explicitly considered effects on tundra fauna, such as the millions of migratory songbirds that breed in northern regions every year. To understand how increasing deciduous shrub dominance may alter breeding songbird habitat, we quantified vegetation and arthropod community characteristics in both graminoid and shrub dominated tundra. We combined measurements of preferred nest site characteristics for Lapland longspurs ( Calcarius lapponicus ) and Gambel's White-crowned sparrows ( Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii ) with modeled predictions for the distribution of plant community types in the Alaskan arctic foothills region for the year 2050. Lapland longspur nests were found in sedge-dominated tussock tundra where shrub height does not exceed 20 cm, whereas White-crowned sparrows nested only under shrubs between 20 cm and 1 m in height, with no preference for shrub species. Shrub canopies had higher canopy dwelling arthropod availability (i.e. small flies and spiders) but lower ground dwelling arthropod availability (i.e. large spiders and beetles). Since flies are the birds’ preferred prey, increasing shrubs may result in a net enhancement in preferred prey availability. Acknowledging the coarse resolution of existing tundra vegetation models, we predict that by 2050 there will be a northward shift in current White-crowned sparrow habitat range and a 20-60% increase in their preferred habitat extent, while Lapland longspur habitat extent will be equivalently reduced. Our findings can be used to make first approximations of future habitat change for species with similar nesting requirements. However, we contend that as exemplified by the current study's findings, existing tundra modeling tools cannot yet simulate the fine-scale habitat characteristics that are critical to accurately predicting future habitat extent for many wildlife species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species that inhabited Europe during the Late Quaternary were impacted by temperature changes and early humans, resulting in the disappearance of half of the European large mammals. However, quantifying the relative importance that each factor had in the extinction risk of species has been challenging, mostly due to the spatio-temporal biases of fossil records, which complicate the calibration of realistic and accurate ecological niche modelling. Here, we overcome this problem by using ecotypes, and not real species, to run our models. We created 40 ecotypes with different temperature requirements (mean temperature from -20°C to 25°C and temperature range from 10°C to 40°C) and used them to quantify the effect of climate change and human impact. Our results show that cold-adapted ecotypes would have been highly affected by past temperature changes in Europe, whereas temperate and warm-adapted ecotypes would have been positively affected by temperature change. Human impact affected all ecotypes negatively, and temperate ecotypes suffered the greatest impacts. Based on these results, the extinction of cold-adapted species like Mammuthus primigenius may be related to temperature change, while the extinction of temperate species, like Crocuta crocuta, may be related to human impact. Our results suggest that temperature change and human impact affected different ecotypes in distinct ways, and that the interaction of both impacts may have shaped species extinctions in Europe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), in particular dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and isoprene, have fundamental ecological, physiological and climatic roles. Our current understanding of these roles is almost exclusively established from terrestrial or oceanic environments but signifies a potentially major, but largely unknown, role for BVOCs in tropical coastal marine ecosystems. The tropical coast is a transition zone between the land and ocean, characterised by highly productive and biodiverse coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves, which house primary producers that are amongst the greatest emitters of BVOCs on the planet. Here we synthesise our existing understanding of BVOC emissions to produce a novel conceptual framework of the tropical marine coast as a continuum from DMS-dominated reef producers to isoprene-dominated mangroves. We use existing and previously unpublished data to consider how current environmental conditions shape BVOC production across the tropical coastal continuum, and in turn how BVOCs can regulate environmental stress tolerance or species interactions via infochemical networks. We use this as a framework to discuss how existing predictions of future tropical coastal BVOC emissions, and the roles they play, are effectively restricted to present day “baseline” trends of BVOC production across species and environmental conditions; as such, there remains a critical need to focus research efforts on BVOC responses to rapidly accelerating anthropogenic impacts at local and regional scales. We highlight the complete lack of current knowledge required to understand the future ecological functioning of these important systems, and to predict whether feedback mechanisms are likely to regulate or exacerbate current climate change scenarios through environmentally- and ecologically-mediated changes to BVOC budgets at the ecosystem level. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Harvesting may be a potent driver of demographic change and contemporary evolution, which both may have great impacts on animal populations. Research has focused on changes in phenotypic traits that are easily quantifiable and for which time series exist, such as size, age, sex, or gonad size, whereas potential changes in behavioural traits have been under-studied. Here we analyse potential drivers of long-term changes in a behavioural trait for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua , namely choice of spawning location. For 104 years (1866-1969), commercial catches were recorded annually and reported by county along the Norwegian coast. During this time period, spawning ground distribution has fluctuated with a trend towards more northerly spawning. Spawning location is analysed against a suite of explanatory factors including climate, fishing pressure, density dependence, and demography. We find that demography (age or age at maturation) had the highest explanatory power for variation in spawning location, while climate had a limited effect below statistical significance. As to potential mechanisms, some effects of climate may act through demography, and explanatory variables for demography may also have absorbed direct evolutionary change in migration distance for which proxies were unavailable. Despite these caveats, we argue that fishing mortality, either through demographic or evolutionary change, has served as an effective driver for changing spawning locations in cod, and that additional explanatory factors related to climate add no significant information. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: While plant litters are the main source of soil organic matter (SOM) in forests, the controllers and pathways to stable SOM formation remain unclear. Here, we address how litter type ( 13 C/ 15 N-labeled needles versus fine roots) and placement-depth (O versus A horizon) affect in situ C and N dynamics in a temperate forest soil after 5 years. Litter type rather than placement-depth controlled soil C and N retention after 5 years in situ , with belowground fine root inputs greatly enhancing soil C (x1.4) and N (x1.2) retention compared with aboveground needles. While the proportions of added needle and fine root-derived C and N recovered into stable SOM fractions were similar, they followed different transformation pathways into stable SOM fractions: fine root transfer was slower than for needles, but proportionally more of the remaining needle-derived C and N was transferred into stable SOM fractions. The stoichiometry of litter-derived C versus N within individual SOM fractions revealed the presence at least two pools of different turnover times (per SOM fraction) and emphasized the role of N-rich compounds for long-term persistence. Finally, a regression approach suggested that models may underestimate soil C retention from litter with fast decomposition rates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global climate is changing, with heterogeneous effects on the biological world including direct impacts on plant phenology. The resilience and future dynamics of ecosystems will depend on their responsiveness to gradual environmental change, as well as susceptibility to more frequent climatic extremes (e.g. Orsenigo et al ., 2014, Xu et al ., 2013). High latitude regions are experiencing particularly rapid climatic changes, and bryophytes, specifically mosses, are the dominant plants in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Wetlands cover 70% of the Arctic, largely made up of Sphagnum dominated peatlands that are shaped by freeze-thaw processes and may be minerotrophic fens or ombrotrophic bogs (Minayeva & Sirin, 2010). In the Antarctic, over one hundred species of moss have been identified (Ochyra et al ., 2008), with two native vascular plant species. Most Antarctic mosses form occasional low growing carpets, mats, turfs and hummocks, whilst some ombrotrophic peat banks up to three metres deep have accumulated in more maritime areas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is both a strong driver of primary productivity and widely believed to be the principal cause of recent increases in global temperature. Soils are the largest store of the world's terrestrial C. Consequently, many investigations have attempted to mechanistically understand how microbial mineralisation of soil organic carbon (SOC) to CO 2 will be affected by projected increases in temperature. Most have attempted this in the absence of plants as the flux of CO 2 from root and rhizomicrobial respiration in intact plant-soil systems confounds interpretation of measurements. We compared the effect of a small increase in temperature on respiration from soils without recent plant C with the effect on intact grass swards. We found that for 48 weeks, before acclimation occurred, an experimental 3 °C increase in sward temperature gave rise to a 50% increase in below ground respiration ( ca .0.4 kg C m −2 ; Q 10 =3.5), whereas mineralisation of older SOC without plants increased with a Q 10 of only 1.7 when subject to increases in ambient soil temperature. Subsequent 14 C dating of respired CO 2 indicated that the presence of plants in swards more than doubled the effect of warming on the rate of mineralisation of SOC with an estimated mean C age of ca .8 y or older relative to incubated soils without recent plant inputs. These results not only illustrate the formidable complexity of mechanisms controlling C fluxes in soils, but also suggest that the dual biological and physical effects of CO 2 on primary productivity and global temperature have the potential to synergistically increase the mineralisation of existing soil C. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilised by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio-ecological historians, and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan-European land cover change for the period 9000 BP to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially-aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 BP through reduction in broad-leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan-European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 BP onwards. From 2200 BP land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for pre-industrial Europe was established by 1000 BP. Recognising the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover-climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Community re-assembly following future disturbances will often occur under warmer and more moisture-limited conditions than when current communities assembled. Because the establishment stage is regularly the most sensitive to climate and competition, the trajectory of recovery from disturbance in a changing environment is uncertain, but has important consequences for future ecosystem functioning. To better understand how ongoing warming and rising moisture limitation may affect recovery, we studied native and exotic plant composition 11 years following complete stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest spanning a large gradient in climatic moisture deficit (CMD) from warm and dry low elevation sites to relatively cool and moist higher elevations sites. We then projected future precipitation, temperature and CMD at our study locations for four scenarios selected to encompass a broad range of possible future conditions for the region. Native perennials dominated relatively cool and moist sites 11 years after wildfire, but were very sparse at the warmest and driest (high CMD) sites, particularly when combined with high topographic sun exposure. In contrast, exotic species (primarily annual grasses) were dominant or co-dominant at the warmest and driest sites, especially with high topographic sun exposure. All future scenarios projected increasing temperature and CMD in coming decades (e.g., from 4.5% to 29.5% higher CMD by the 2080's compared to the 1971-2000 average), even in scenarios where growing season (May-September) precipitation increased. These results suggest increasing temperatures and moisture limitation could facilitate longer-term (over a decade) transitions toward exotic-dominated communities after severe wildfire when a suitable exotic seed source is present. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Rising temperatures caused by climate change could negatively alter plant ecosystems if temperatures exceed optimal temperatures for carbon gain. Such changes may threaten temperature-sensitive species, causing local extinctions and range migrations. This study examined the optimal temperature of net photosynthesis ( T opt ) of two boreal and four temperate deciduous tree species grown in the field in northern Minnesota, USA under two contrasting temperature regimes. We hypothesized that T opt would be higher in temperate than co-occurring boreal species, with temperate species exhibiting greater plasticity in T opt , resulting in better acclimation to elevated temperatures. The chamberless experiment, located at two sites in both open and understory conditions, continuously warmed plants and soils during three growing seasons. Results show a modest, but significant shift in T opt of 1.1 ± 0.21 °C on average for plants subjected to a mean 2.9 ± 0.01 °C warming during midday hours in summer, and shifts with warming were unrelated to species native ranges. The 1.1°C shift in T opt with 2.9 °C warming might be interpreted as suggesting limited capacity to shift temperature response functions to better match changes in temperature. However, T opt of warmed plants was as well-matched with prior midday temperatures as T opt of plants in the ambient treatment, and T opt in both treatments was at a level where realized photosynthesis was within 90-95% of maximum. These results suggest that seedlings of all species were close to optimizing photosynthetic temperature responses, and equally so in both temperature treatments. Our study suggests that temperate and boreal species have considerable capacity to match their photosynthetic temperature response functions to prevailing growing season temperatures that occur today and to those that will likely occur in the coming decades under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In recent years there has been an increase in research to understand how global changes’ impacts on soil biota translate into altered ecosystem functioning. However, results vary between global change effects, soil taxa and ecosystem processes studied, and a synthesis of relationships is lacking. Therefore, here we initiate such a synthesis to assess whether the effect size of global change drivers (elevated CO 2 , N deposition and warming) on soil microbial abundance is related with the effect size of these drivers on ecosystem functioning (plant biomass, soil C cycle and soil N cycle) using meta-analysis and structural equation modeling. For N deposition and warming, the global change effect size on soil microbes was positively associated with the global change effect size on ecosystem functioning, and these relationships were consistent across taxa and ecosystem processes. However, for elevated CO 2 , such links were more taxon and ecosystem process specific. For example, fungal abundance responses to elevated CO 2 were positively correlated with those of plant biomass but negatively with those of the N cycle. Our results go beyond previous assessments of the sensitivity of soil microbes and ecosystem processes to global change, and demonstrate the existence of general links between the responses of soil microbial abundance and ecosystem functioning. Further we identify critical areas for future research, specifically altered precipitation, soil fauna, soil community composition, and litter decomposition, that are need to better quantify the ecosystem consequences of global change impacts on soil biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Theory predicts that the post-industrial rise in the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere (c a ) should enhance tree growth either through a direct fertilization effect or indirectly by improving water use efficiency in dry areas. However, this hypothesis has received little support in cold-limited and subalpine forests where positive growth responses to either rising c a or warmer temperatures are still under debate. In this study we address this issue by analyzing an extensive dendrochronological network of high-elevation Pinus uncinata forests in Spain (28 sites, 544 trees) encompassing the whole biogeographical extent of the species. We determine if the basal-area increment (BAI) trends are linked to climate warming and increased c a by focusing on region- and age-dependent responses. The largest improvement in BAI over the past six centuries occurred during the last 150 years affecting young trees and being driven by recent warming. Indeed, most studied regions and age classes presented BAI patterns mainly controlled by temperature trends, while growing-season precipitation was only relevant in the driest sites. Growth enhancement was linked to rising c a in mature (151-300 years old trees) and old mature trees (301–450 years old trees) from the wettest sites only. This finding implies that any potential fertilization effect of elevated c a on forest growth is contingent on tree features that vary with ontogeny and it depends on site conditions (for instance water availability). Furthermore, we found widespread growth decline in drought-prone sites probably indicating that the rise in c a did not compensate for the reduction in water availability. Thus, warming-triggered drought stress may become a more important direct driver of growth than rising c a in similar subalpine forests. We argue that broad approaches in biogeographical and temporal terms are required to adequately evaluate any effect of rising c a on forest growth. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Biological invasions are a key component of human-induced global change. The continuing increase in global wildlife trade has raised concerns about the parallel increase in the number of new invasive species. However, the factors that link the wildlife trade to the biological invasion process are still poorly understood. Moreover, there are analytical challenges in researching the role of global wildlife trade in biological invasions, particularly issues related to the under-reporting of introduced and established populations in areas with reduced sampling effort. In this work, we use high-quality data on the international trade in Nearctic turtles (1999-2009) coupled with a statistical modelling framework, which explicitly accounts for detection, to investigate the factors that influence the introduction (release, or escape into the wild) of globally traded Nearctic turtles and the establishment success (self-sustaining exotic populations) of slider turtles ( Trachemys scripta ), the most frequently traded turtle species. We found that the introduction of a species was influenced by the total number of turtles exported to a jurisdiction and the age at maturity of the species, while the establishment success of slider turtles was best associated with the propagule number (number of release events), and the number of native turtles in the jurisdiction of introduction. These results indicate both a direct and indirect association between the wildlife trade and the introduction of turtles and establishment success of slider turtles, respectively. Our results highlight the existence of gaps in the number of globally recorded introduction events and established populations of slider turtles, although the expected bias is low. We emphasize the importance of researching independently the factors that affect the different stages of the invasion pathway. Critically, we observe that the number of traded individuals might not always be an adequate proxy for propagule pressure and establishment success. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Vegetation in water-limited ecosystems relies strongly on access to deep water reserves to withstand dry periods. Most of these ecosystems have shallow soils over deep groundwater reserves. Understanding the functioning and functional plasticity of species-specific root systems and the patterns of or differences in the use of water sources under more frequent or intense droughts is therefore necessary to properly predict the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. We used stable isotopes to investigate the seasonal patterns of water uptake by a sclerophyll forest on sloped terrain with shallow soils. We assessed the effect of a long-term experimental drought (12 years) and the added impact of an extreme natural drought that produced widespread tree mortality and crown defoliation. The dominant species, Quercus ilex , Arbutus unedo and Phillyrea latifolia , all have dimorphic root systems enabling them to access different water sources in space and time. The plants extracted water mainly from the soil in the cold and wet seasons but increased their use of groundwater during the summer drought. Interestingly, the plants subjected to the long-term experimental drought shifted water uptake toward deeper (10-35 cm) soil layers during the wet season and reduced groundwater uptake in summer, indicating plasticity in the functional distribution of fine roots that dampened the effect of our experimental drought over the long term. An extreme drought in 2011, however, further reduced the contribution of deep soil layers and groundwater to transpiration, which resulted in greater crown defoliation in the drought-affected plants. The present study suggests that extreme droughts aggravate moderate but persistent drier conditions (simulated by our manipulation) and may lead to the depletion of water from groundwater reservoirs and weathered bedrock, threatening the preservation of these Mediterranean ecosystems in their current structures and compositions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Altered precipitation patterns resulting from climate change will have particularly significant consequences in water-limited ecosystems, such as arid to semi-arid ecosystems, where discontinuous inputs of water control biological processes. Given that these ecosystems cover more than a third of Earth's terrestrial surface, it is important to understand how they respond to such alterations. Altered water availability may impact both aboveground and belowground communities and the interactions between these, with potential impacts on ecosystem functioning; however, most studies to date have focused exclusively on vegetation responses to altered precipitation regimes. To synthesize our understanding of potential climate change impacts on dryland ecosystems, we present here a review of current literature that reports the effects of precipitation events and altered precipitation regimes on belowground biota and biogeochemical cycling. Increased precipitation generally increases microbial biomass and fungal:bacterial ratio. Few studies report responses to reduced precipitation but the effects likely counter those of increased precipitation. Altered precipitation regimes have also been found to alter microbial community composition but broader generalizations are difficult to make. Changes in event size and frequency influences invertebrate activity and density with cascading impacts on the soil food web, which will likely impact carbon and nutrient pools. The long-term implications for biogeochemical cycling are inconclusive but several studies suggest that increased aridity may cause decoupling of carbon and nutrient cycling. We propose a new conceptual framework that incorporates hierarchical biotic responses to individual precipitation events more explicitly, including moderation of microbial activity and biomass by invertebrate grazing, and use this framework to make some predictions on impacts of altered precipitation regimes in terms of event size and frequency as well as mean annual precipitation. While our understanding of dryland ecosystems is improving, there is still a great need for longer-term in situ manipulations of precipitation regime to test our model. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil carbon cycling processes potentially play a large role in biotic feedbacks to climate change, but little agreement exists at present on what the core of numerical soil C cycling models should look like. In contrast, most canopy models of photosynthesis and leaf gas exchange share a common “Farquhaur-model” core structure. Here we explore why a similar core model structure for heterotrophic soil respiration remains elusive and how a pathway to that goal might be envisioned. The spatial and temporal variation of soil microsite conditions greatly complicates modeling efforts, but we believe it is possible to develop a tractable number of parameterizable equations that are organized into a coherent, modular, numerical model structure. First, we show parallels in insights gleaned from linking Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten kinetics for both photosynthesis and soil respiration. Additional equations and layers of complexity are then added to simulate substrate supply. For soils, model modules that simulate carbon stabilization processes will be key to estimating the fraction of soil-C that is accessible to enzymes. Potential modules for dynamic photosynthate input, wetting-event inputs, freeze-thaw impacts on substrate diffusion, aggregate turnover, soluble-C sorption, gas transport, methane respiration, and microbial dynamics are described for conceptually and numerically linking our understanding of fast response processes of soil gas exchange with longer-term dynamics of soil carbon and nitrogen stocks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Cities experience elevated temperature, CO 2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa , to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

Description: The southeastern U.S. is experiencing a rapid regional increase in the ratio of pine to deciduous forest ecosystems at the same time it is experiencing changes in climate. This study is focused on exploring how these shifts will affect the carbon sink capacity of southeastern U.S. forests, which we show here are among the strongest carbon sinks in the continental U.S. Using eight-year long eddy covariance records collected above a hardwood deciduous forest (HW) and a pine plantation (PP) co-located in North Carolina, USA, we show that the net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) was more variable in PP, contributing to variability in the difference in NEE between the two sites (ΔNEE) at a range of timescales, including the inter-annual timescale. Because the variability in evapotranspiration (ET) was nearly identical across the two sites over a range of timescales, the factors that determined the variability in ΔNEE were dominated by those that tend to decouple NEE from ET. One such factor was water use efficiency, which changed dramatically in response to drought and also tended to increase monotonically in non-drought years (p〈0.001 in PP). Factors that vary over seasonal timescales were strong determinants of the NEE in the HW site; however, seasonality was less important in the PP site, where significant amounts of carbon were assimilated outside of the active season, representing an important advantage of evergreen trees in warm, temperate climates. Additional variability in the fluxes at long time scales may be attributable to slowly-evolving factors, including canopy structure and increases in dormant season air temperature. Taken together, study results suggest that the carbon sink in the southeastern US may become more variable in the future, owing to a predicted increase in drought frequency and an increase in the fractional cover of southern pines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Endangered Species employs a robust, standardised approach to assess extinction threat focussed on taxa approaching an end-point in population decline. Used alone, we argue this enforces a reactive approach to conservation. Species not assessed as threatened but which occur predominantly in areas with high levels of anthropogenic impact may require proactive conservation management to prevent loss. We matched distribution and bathymetric range data from the global Red List assessment of 632 species of marine cone snails with human impacts and projected ocean thermal stress and aragonite saturation (a proxy for ocean acidification). Our results show 67 species categorised as ‘Least Concern’ have 70% or more of their occupancy in places subject to high and very high levels of human impact with 18 highly restricted species (range 〈 100km 2 ) living exclusively in such places. Using a range-rarity scoring method we identified where clusters of endemic species are subject to all three stressors: high human impact, declining aragonite saturation levels and elevated thermal stress. Our approach reinforces Red List threatened status, highlights candidate species for reassessment, contributes important evidential data to minimise data deficiency and identifies regions and species for proactive conservation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Shifting precipitation patterns brought on by climate change threaten to alter the future distribution of wetlands. We developed a set of models to understand the role climate plays in determining wetland formation on a landscape scale and to forecast changes in wetland distribution for the Midwestern United States. These models combined 35 climate variables with 21 geographic and anthropogenic factors thought to encapsulate other major drivers of wetland distribution for the Midwest. All models successfully recreated a majority of the variation in current wetland area within the Midwest, and showed that wetland area was significantly associated with climate, even when controlling for landscape context. Inferential (linear) models identified a consistent negative association between wetland area and isothermality. This is likely the result of regular inundation in areas where precipitation accumulates as snow, then melts faster than drainage capacity. Moisture index seasonality was identified as a key factor distinguishing between emergent and forested wetland types, where forested wetland area at the landscape scale is associated with a greater seasonal variation in water table depth. Forecasting models (neural networks) predicted an increase in potential wetland area in the coming century, with areas conducive to forested wetland formation expanding more rapidly than areas conducive to emergent wetlands. Local cluster analyses identified Iowa and Northeastern Missouri as areas of anticipated wetland expansion, indicating both a risk to crop production within the Midwest Corn Belt and an opportunity for wetland conservation, while Northern Minnesota and Michigan are potentially at risk of wetland losses under a future climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The effects of recent climate changes on earth ecosystems are likely among the most important ecological concerns in human history. Good bioindicators are essential to properly assess the magnitude of these changes. In the last decades, studies have suggested that the morph proportion of the eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus), one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate species in forests of eastern North America, could be used as a proxy for monitoring climate changes. Based on new discoveries in the northern areas of the species’ range and on one of the largest compilation ever made for a vertebrate in North America (236 109 observations compiled from 1880 to 2013 in 1148 localities), we demonstrate however that climatic and geographic variables do not influence the colour morph proportions in P. cinereus populations. Consequently, we show that the use of colour morph proportions of this species do not perform as an indicator of climate change. Our findings indicate that bioindicator paradigms can be significantly challenged by new ecological research and more representative databases. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ice-wedge polygon peatlands contain a substantial part of the carbon stored in permafrost soils. However, little is known about their long term carbon accumulation rates (CAR) in relation to shifts in vegetation and climate. We collected four peat profiles from one single polygon in NE Yakutia and cut them into contiguous 0.5 cm slices. Pollen density interpolation between AMS 14 C dated levels provided the time span contained in each of the sample slices, which – in combination with the volumetric carbon content – allowed for the reconstruction of CAR over decadal and centennial timescales. Vegetation representing dry palaeo-ridges and wet depressions was reconstructed with detailed micro- and macrofossil analysis. We found repeated shifts between wet and dry conditions during the past millennium. Dry ridges with associated permafrost growth originated during phases of (relatively) warm summer temperature and collapsed during relatively cold phases, illustrating the important role of vegetation and peat as intermediaries between ambient air temperature and the permafrost. The average long term CAR across the four profiles was 10.6 ± 5.5 g C m −2 yr −1 . Time weighted mean CAR did not differ significantly between wet depression and dry ridge/hummock phases (10.6 ± 5.2 g C m −2 yr −1 and 10.3 ± 5.7 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively). Although we observed increased CAR in relation to warm shifts, we also found changes in the opposite direction and the highest CAR actually occurred during the Little Ice Age. In fact, CAR rather seems to be governed by strong internal feedback mechanisms and has roughly remained stable on centennial time scales. The absence of significant differences in CAR between dry ridge and wet depression phases suggests that recent warming and associated expansion of shrubs will not affect long term rates of carbon burial in ice-wedge polygon peatlands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Reforestation has large potential for mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. Native mixed-species plantings have a higher potential to reverse biodiversity loss than do plantations of production species, but there are few data on their capacity to store carbon. A chronosequence (5-45 yr) of 36 native mixed-species plantings, paired with adjacent pastures, was measured to investigate changes to stocks among C pools following reforestation of agricultural land in the medium rainfall zone (400-800 mm yr −1 ) of temperate Australia. These mixed-species plantings accumulated 3.09 ± 0.85 t C ha −1 yr −1 in aboveground biomass and 0.18 ± 0.05 t C ha −1 yr −1 in plant litter, reaching amounts comparable to those measured in remnant woodlands by 20 yr and 36 yr after reforestation, respectively. Soil C was slower to increase, with increases seen only after 45 yr, at which time stocks had not reached the amounts found in remnant woodlands. The amount of trees (tree density and basal area) was positively associated with the accumulation of carbon in aboveground biomass and litter. However, changes to soil C were most strongly related to the productivity of the location (a forest productivity index and soil N content in the adjacent pasture). At 30 yr, native mixed-species plantings had increased the stability of soil C stocks, with higher amounts of recalcitrant C and higher C:N ratios than their adjacent pastures. Reforestation with native mixed-species plantings did not significantly change the availability of macronutrients (N, K, Ca, Mg, P and S) and micronutrients (Fe, B, Mn, Zn and Cu), content of plant toxins (Al, Si), acidity, or salinity (Na, electrical conductivity) in the soil. In this medium rainfall area, native mixed-species plantings provided comparable rates of C sequestration to local production species, with the probable additional benefit of providing better quality habitat for native biota. These results demonstrate that reforestation using native mixed-species plantings is an effective alternative for carbon sequestration to standard monocultures of production species in medium rainfall areas of temperate continental climates, where they can effectively store C, convert C into stable pools and provide greater benefits for biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Agricultural drainage of organic soils has resulted in vast soil subsidence and contributed to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations. The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California was drained over a century ago for agriculture and human settlement and has since experienced subsidence rates that are among the highest in the world. It is recognized that drained agriculture in the Delta is unsustainable in the long-term, and to help reverse subsidence and capture carbon (C) there is an interest in restoring drained agricultural land-use types to flooded conditions. However, flooding may increase methane (CH 4 ) emissions. We conducted a full year of simultaneous eddy covariance measurements at two conventional drained agricultural peatlands (a pasture and a corn field) and three flooded land-use types (a rice paddy and two restored wetlands) to assess the impact of drained to flooded land-use change on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the Delta. We found that the drained sites were net C and greenhouse gas (GHG) sources, releasing up to 341 g C m −2 yr −1 as CO 2 and 11.4 g C m −2 yr −1 as CH 4 . Conversely, the restored wetlands were net sinks of atmospheric CO 2 , sequestering up to 397 g C m −2 yr −1 . However, they were large sources of CH 4 , with emissions ranging from 39 to 53 g C m −2 yr −1 . In terms of the full GHG budget, the restored wetlands could be either GHG sources or sinks. Although the rice paddy was a small atmospheric CO 2 sink, when considering harvest and CH 4 emissions, it acted as both a C and GHG source. Annual photosynthesis was similar between sites, but flooding at the restored sites inhibited ecosystem respiration, making them net CO 2 sinks. This study suggests that converting drained agricultural peat soils to flooded land-use types can help reduce or reverse soil subsidence and reduce GHG emissions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Pelagic fishes are among the most ecologically and economically important fish species in European seas. In principle, these pelagic fishes have potential to demonstrate rapid abundance and distribution shifts in response to climatic variability due to their high adult motility, planktonic larval stages, and low dependence on benthic habitat for food or shelter during their life histories. Here we provide evidence of substantial climate-driven changes to the structure of pelagic fish communities in European shelf seas. We investigated the patterns of species-level change using catch records from 57,870 fisheries-independent survey trawls from across European continental shelf region between 1965 and 2012. We analysed changes in the distribution and rate of occurrence of the six most common species, and observed a strong subtropicalization of the North Sea and Baltic Sea assemblages. These areas have shifted away from cold-water assemblages typically characterised by Atlantic herring and European sprat from the 1960s to 1980s, to warmer-water assemblages including Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel, European pilchard and European anchovy from the 1990s onwards. We next investigated if warming sea temperatures have forced these changes using temporally-comprehensive data from the North Sea region. Our models indicated the primary driver of change in these species has been sea surface temperatures in all cases. Together, these analyses highlight how individual species responses have combined to result in a dramatic subtropicalization of the pelagic fish assemblage of the European continental shelf. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Description: There is a general assumption that intraspecific populations originating from relatively arid climates will be better adapted to cope with the expected increase in drought from climate change. For ecologically and economically important species, more comprehensive, genecological studies that utilize large distributions of populations and direct measures of traits associated with drought-resistance are needed to empirically support this assumption because of the implications for the natural or assisted regeneration of species. We conducted a space-for-time substitution, common garden experiment with 35 populations of coastal Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) growing at three test sites with distinct summer temperature and precipitation (referred to as ‘cool/moist’, ‘moderate’ or ‘warm/dry’) to test the hypotheses that 1) there is large genetic variation among populations and regions in traits associated with drought-resistance, 2) the patterns of genetic variation are related to the native source-climate of each population, in particular with summer temperature and precipitation, 3) the differences among populations and relationships with climate are stronger at the warm/dry test site owing to greater expression of drought-resistance traits (i.e. a genotype × environment interaction). During mid-summer 2012, we measured the rate of water loss after stomatal closure (transpiration min ), water deficit (% below turgid saturation), and specific leaf area (SLA, cm 2 g −1 ) on new growth of sapling branches. There was significant genetic variation in all plant traits, with populations originating from warmer and drier climates having greater drought-resistance (i.e., lower transpiration min , water deficit and SLA), but these trends were most clearly expressed only at the warm/dry test site. Contrary to expectations, populations from cooler climates also had greater drought-resistance across all test sites. Multiple regression analysis indicated that Douglas-fir populations from regions with relatively cool winters and arid summers may be most adapted to cope with drought conditions that are expected in the future. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q 10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus ) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing temperature helps providing more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to warming.

Description: Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (〉30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in the response of NDVI to changes in day- versus night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (T max ) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between T max and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone – total area 12.6×10 6 km 2 ) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in T max , increases in T max tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (T min ) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to diurnal temperature changes, which have not been captured by current land surface models, is important for improving the performance of next generation regional and global coupled vegetation-climate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, USA and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (Oct 1 – Sep 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1 mussel ) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated to the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1 discharge ; r = -0.88; p 〈 0.0001). PC1 mussel and PC1 discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e. pits) over recent decades in response to climate warming, facilitating changes in polygonal tundra geomorphology. We assessed the future impact of 100 years of tundra geomorphic change on peak growing season carbon exchange in response to: (1) landscape succession associated with the thaw-lake cycle; and (2) low, moderate, and extreme scenarios of thermokarst pit formation (10, 30, and 50%) reported for Alaskan arctic tundra sites. We developed a 30 x 30m resolution tundra geomorphology map (overall accuracy:75%; Kappa:0.69) for our ~1800 km² study area composed of ten classes; drained slope, high-center polygon, flat-center polygon, low-center polygon, coalescent low-center polygon, polygon trough, meadow, ponds, rivers, and lakes, to determine their spatial distribution across the Barrow Peninsula. Land-atmosphere CO 2 and CH 4 flux data were collected for the summers of 2006-2010 at eighty-two sites near Barrow, across the mapped classes. The developed geomorphic map was used for the regional assessment of carbon flux. Results indicate (1) at present during peak growing season on the Barrow Peninsula, CO 2 uptake occurs at -902.3 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between -438.3 and-1366 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux at 28.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between 12.9 and 44.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ), (2) one century of future landscape change associated with the thaw-lake cycle only slightly alter CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, while (3) moderate increases in thermokarst pits would strengthen both CO 2 uptake (-166.9 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux (2.8 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ) with geomorphic change from low to high-center polygons, cumulatively resulting in an estimated negative feedback to warming during peak growing season. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25 ha), all stems ≥1 cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25°S–61°N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 °C), changes in precipitation (up to ±30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8 g N m −2  yr −1 and 3.1 g S m −2  yr −1 ), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5 km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Description: Flooded rice is grown across wide geographic boundaries from as far north as Manchuria and as far south as Uruguay and New South Wales, primarily because of its adaptability across diverse agronomic and climatic conditions. Salt stress damage, a common occurrence in delta and coastal rice production zones could be heightened by the interactions between high temperature and relative humidity (vapor pressure deficit - VPD). Using temporal and spatial observations spanning 107 seasons and 19 rice-growing locations throughout India with varying electrical conductivity (EC), including coastal saline, inland saline, and alkaline soils, we quantified the proportion of VPD inducing salinity damage in rice. While controlling for time-invariant factors such as trial locations, rice cultivars, and soil types, our regression analysis indicates that EC has a nonlinear detrimental effect on paddy rice yield. Our estimates suggest these yield reductions become larger at higher VPD. A one standard deviation (SD) increase in EC from its mean value is associated with 1.68% and 4.13% yield reductions at median and maximum observed VPD levels, respectively. Yield reductions increase roughly six fold when the one SD increase is taken from the 75th percentile of EC. In combination, high EC and VPD generate near catastrophic crop loss as predicted yield approaches zero. If higher VPD levels driven by global warming materialize in conjunction with rising sea levels or salinity incursion in groundwater, this interaction becomes an important and necessary predictor of expected yield losses and global food security.

Description: Anthropogenic activities, and in particular the use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer, have doubled global annual reactive N inputs in the past 50-100 years, causing deleterious effects on the environment through increased N leaching and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions. Leaching and gaseous losses of N are greatly controlled by the net rate of microbial nitrification. Extensive experiments have been conducted to develop ways to inhibit this process through use of nitrification inhibitors (NI) in combination with fertilizers. Yet, no study has comprehensively assessed how inhibiting nitrification affects both hydrologic and gaseous losses of N and plant nitrogen use efficiency. We synthesized the results of 62 NI field studies and evaluated how NI application altered N cycle and ecosystem services in N enriched systems. Our results showed that inhibiting nitrification by NI application increased NH 3 emission (mean: 20%, 95% confidential interval: 67% to 33%), but reduced dissolved inorganic N leaching (-48%, -56% to -38%), N 2 O emission (-44%, -48% to -39%) and NO emission (-24%, -38% to -8%). This amounted to a net reduction of 16.5% in the total N release to the environment. Inhibiting nitrification also increased plant N recovery (58%, 34% to 93%) and productivity of grain (9%, 6% to 13%), straw (15%, 12% to 18%), vegetable (5%, 0% to 10%) and pasture hay (14%, 8% to 20%). The cost and benefit analysis showed that the economic benefit of reducing N's environmental impacts offset the cost of NI application. Applying NI along with N fertilizer could bring additional revenues of $163 ha −1 yr −1 for a maize farm, equivalent to 8.95% increase in revenues. Our findings showed that NIs could create a win-win scenario that reduces the negative impact of N leaching and greenhouse gas production, while increasing agricultural output. However, NI's potential negative impacts, such as increase in NH 3 emission and the risk of NI contamination, should be fully considered before large-scale application. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The largest carbon stock in tropical vegetation is in Brazilian Amazonia. In this ~5 million km 2 area, over 750,000 km 2 of forest and ~240,000 km 2 of non-forest vegetation types had been cleared through 2013. We estimate current carbon stocks and cumulative gross carbon loss from clearing of pre-modern vegetation in Brazil's “Legal Amazonia” and “Amazonia biome” regions. Biomass of “pre-modern” vegetation (prior to major increases in disturbance beginning in the 1970s) was estimated by matching vegetation classes mapped at a scale of 1:250,000 and 29 biomass means from 41 published studies for vegetation types classified as forest (2317 1-ha plots) and as either non-forest or contact zones (1830 plots and sub-plots of varied size). Total biomass (above and below-ground, dry weight) underwent a gross reduction of 18.3% in Legal Amazonia (13.1 Pg C) and 16.7% in the Amazonia biome (11.2 Pg C) through 2013, excluding carbon loss from the effects of fragmentation, selective logging, fires, mortality induced by recent droughts and clearing of forest regrowth. In spite of the loss of carbon from clearing, large amounts of carbon were stored in stands of remaining vegetation in 2013, equivalent to 149 Mg C ha −1 when weighted by the total area covered by each vegetation type in Legal Amazonia. Native vegetation in Legal Amazonia in 2013 originally contained 58.6 Pg C, while that in the Amazonia biome contained 56 Pg C. Emissions per unit area from clearing could potentially be larger in the future because previously cleared areas were mainly covered by vegetation with lower mean biomass than the remaining vegetation. Estimates of original biomass are essential for estimating losses to forest degradation. This study offers estimates of cumulative biomass loss, as well as estimates of pre-modern carbon stocks that have not been represented in recent estimates of deforestation impacts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Wildfires release substantial quantities of carbon (C) into the atmosphere but they also convert part of the burnt biomass into pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM). This is richer in C and, overall, more resistant to environmental degradation than the original biomass, and, therefore, PyOM production is an efficient mechanism for C sequestration. The magnitude of this C sink, however, remains poorly quantified, and current production estimates, which suggest that ~1-5% of the C affected by fire is converted to PyOM, are based on incomplete inventories. Here, we quantify, for the first time, the complete range of PyOM components found in-situ immediately after a typical boreal forest fire. We utilized an experimental high-intensity crown fire in a jack pine forest (Pinus banksiana) and carried out a detailed pre- and post-fire inventory and quantification of all fuel components, and the PyOM (i.e. all visually charred, blackened materials) produced in each of them. Our results show that, overall, 27.6% of the C affected by fire was retained in PyOM (4.8±0.8 t C ha −1 ), rather than emitted to the atmosphere (12.6±4.5 t C ha −1 ). The conversion rates varied substantially between fuel components. For down wood and bark, over half of the C affected was converted to PyOM, whereas for forest floor it was only one quarter, and less than a tenth for needles. If the overall conversion rate found here were applicable to boreal wildfire in general, it would translate into a PyOM production of ~100 Tg C yr −1 by wildfire in the global boreal regions, more than five times the amount estimated previously. Our findings suggest that PyOM production from boreal wildfires, and potentially also from other fire-prone ecosystems, may have been underestimated and that its quantitative importance as a C sink warrants its inclusion in the global C budget estimates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (1) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (2) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (〈1% area of the SO) are affected by glacier retreat and warming in the deeper euphotic layer. In the future, decrease in the sea-ice is expected to be widespread. Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to 〈1% for four and five overlapping factors. In the future, areas expected to be affected by 2 and 3 overlapping factors are equally large, including potential iceberg changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The world's oceans have undergone significant ecological changes following European colonial expansion and associated industrialisation. Seabirds are useful indicators of marine food web structure and can be used to track multi-decadal environmental change, potentially reflecting long-term human impacts. We used stable isotope ( δ 13 C, δ 15 N) analysis of feathers from glaucous-winged gulls ( Larus glaucescens ) in a heavily disturbed region of the northeast Pacific to ask whether diets of this generalist forager changed in response to shifts in food availability over 150 years, and whether any detected change might explain long-term trends in gull abundance. Sampled feathers came from birds collected between 1860 and 2009 at nesting colonies in the Salish Sea, a transboundary marine system adjacent to Washington, USA and British Columbia, Canada. To determine whether temporal trends in stable isotope ratios might simply reflect changes to baseline environmental values, we also analysed muscle tissue from forage fishes collected in the same region over a multi-decadal timeframe. Values of δ 13 C and δ 15 N declined since 1860 in both sub-adult and adult gulls ( δ 13 C, ~ 2–6‰; δ 15 N, ~4–5‰), indicating that their diet has become less marine over time, and that birds now feed at a lower trophic level than previously. Conversely, forage fish δ 13 C and δ 15 N values showed no trends, supporting our conclusion that gull feather values were indicative of declines in marine food availability rather than of baseline environmental change. Gradual declines in feather isotope values are consistent with trends predicted had gulls consumed less fish over time, but were equivocal with respect to whether gulls had switched to a more garbage-based diet, or one comprising marine invertebrates. Nonetheless, our results suggest a long-term decrease in diet quality linked to declining fish abundance or other anthropogenic influences, and may help to explain regional population declines in this species and other piscivores. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Coastal salt marshes are sensitive to global climate change and may play an important role in mitigating global warming. To evaluate the impacts of Spartina alterniflora invasion on global warming potential (GWP) in Chinese coastal areas, we measured CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes and soil organic carbon sequestration rates along a transect of coastal wetlands in Jiangsu province, China, including open water, bare tidal flat, and invasive S. alterniflora , native Suaeda salsa and Phragmites australis marshes. Annual CH 4 emissions were estimated as 2.81, 4.16, 4.88, 10.79 and 16.98 kg CH 4 ha −1 for open water, bare tidal flat, and P. australis , S. salsa and S. alterniflora marshes, respectively, indicating that S. alterniflora invasion increased CH 4 emissions by 57–505%. In contrast, negative N 2 O fluxes were found to be significantly and negatively correlated ( P 〈 0.001) with net ecosystem CO 2 exchange during the growing season in S. alterniflora and P. australis marshes. Annual N 2 O emissions were 0.24, 0.38 and 0.56 kg N 2 O ha −1 in open water, bare tidal flat and S. salsa marsh, respectively, compared with −0.51 kg N 2 O ha −1 for S. alterniflora marsh and −0.25 kg N 2 O ha −1 for P. australis marsh. The carbon sequestration rate of S. alterniflora marsh amounted to 3.16 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 in the top 100 cm soil profile, a value that was 2.63- to 8.78-fold higher than in native plant marshes. The estimated GWP was 1.78, −0.60, −4.09 and −1.14 kg CO 2 eq ha −1 yr −1 in open water, bare tidal flat, P. australis marsh and S. salsa marsh, respectively, but dropped to −11.30 kg CO 2 eq ha −1 yr −1 in S. alterniflora marsh. Our results indicate that although S. alterniflora invasion stimulates CH 4 emissions, it can efficiently mitigate increases in atmospheric CO 2 and N 2 O along the coast of China. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate-shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5–38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate-controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool-origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20–60%. Warm-origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool-origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm-origin taxa may be negatively affected.

Description: Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.

Description: Climate warming at high northern latitudes has caused substantial increases in plant productivity of tundra vegetation and an expansion of the range of deciduous shrub species. However significant the increase in carbon (C) contained within above-ground shrub biomass, it is modest in comparison with the amount of C stored in the soil in tundra ecosystems. Here we use a ‘space-for-time’ approach to test the hypothesis that a shift from lower-productivity tundra heath to higher-productivity deciduous shrub vegetation in the sub-Arctic may lead to a loss of soil C that out-weighs the increase in above-ground shrub biomass. We further hypothesise that a shift from ericoid to ectomycorrhizal systems coincident with this vegetation change provides a mechanism for the loss of soil C. We sampled soil C stocks, soil surface CO 2 flux rates and fungal growth rates along replicated natural transitions from birch forest ( Betula pubescens ), through deciduous shrub tundra ( Betula nana ) to tundra heaths ( Empetrum nigrum ) near Abisko, Swedish Lapland. We demonstrate that organic horizon soil organic C (SOC org ) is significantly lower at shrub (2.98 ± 0.48 kg m −2 ) and forest (2.04 ± 0.25 kg m −2 ) plots than at heath plots (7.03 ± 0.79 kg m −2 ). Shrub vegetation had the highest respiration rates, suggesting that despite higher rates of C assimilation, C turnover was also very high and less C is sequestered in the ecosystem. Growth rates of fungal hyphae increased across the transition from heath to shrub, suggesting that the action of ectomycorrhizal symbionts in the scavenging of organically bound nutrients is an important pathway by which soil C is made available to microbial degradation. The expansion of deciduous shrubs onto potentially vulnerable arctic soils with large stores of C could therefore represent a significant positive feedback to the climate system. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS ) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr −1 , ranging from 0.0035 yr −1 to 0.0127 yr −1 ), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P〈0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI GS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.