ALBERT

Description: Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile-adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics respond to longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming induced bleaching is largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the pre-industrial period though 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a pre-industrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method over-predicts the present day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the ‘no adaptive response’ prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high frequency bleaching by ~10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The snow-masking effect of vegetation exerts strong control on albedo in northern high latitude ecosystems. Large-scale changes in the distribution and stature of vegetation in this region will thus have important feedbacks to climate. The snow-albedo feedback is controlled largely by the contrast between snow-covered and snow-free albedo (Δα), which influences predictions of future warming in coupled climate models, despite being poorly constrained at seasonal and century time scales. Here we compare satellite observations and coupled climate model representations of albedo and tree cover for the boreal and Arctic region. Our analyses reveal consistent declines in albedo with increasing tree cover, occurring south of latitudinal tree line, that are poorly represented in coupled climate models. Observed relationships between albedo and tree cover differ substantially between snow-covered and snow-free periods, and among plant functional type (PFT). Tree cover in models varies widely but surprisingly does not correlate well with model albedo. Further, our results demonstrate a relationship between tree cover and snow-albedo feedback that may be used to accurately constrain high latitude albedo feedbacks in coupled climate models under current and future vegetation distributions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this paper, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well-defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Will warming lead to an increased use of older soil organic carbon (SOC) by microbial communities, thereby inducing C losses from C-rich alpine soils? We studied soil microbial community composition, activity and substrate use after three and four years of soil warming (+4°C, 2007-2010) at the alpine treeline in Switzerland. The warming experiment was nested in a free air CO 2 enrichment experiment using depleted 13 CO 2 (δ 13 C = –30‰, 2001-2009). We traced this depleted 13 C label in phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) of the organic layer (0-5 cm soil depth) and in C mineralized from root-free soils to distinguish substrate ages used by soil microorganisms: fixed before 2001 (“old”), from 2001 to 2009 (“new”) or in 2010 (“recent”). Warming induced a sustained stimulation of soil respiration (+38%) without decline in mineralizable SOC. PLFA concentrations did not reveal changes in microbial community composition due to soil warming, but soil microbial metabolic activity was stimulated (+66%). Warming decreased the amount of new and recent C in the fungal biomarker 18:2ω6,9 and the amount of new C mineralized from root-free soils, implying a shift in microbial substrate use towards a greater use of old SOC. This shift in substrate use could indicate an imbalance between C inputs and outputs, which could eventually decrease SOC storage in this alpine ecosystem. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Circumpolar expansion of tall shrubs and trees into Arctic tundra is widely thought to be occurring as a result of recent climate warming, but little quantitative evidence exists for northern Siberia, which encompasses the world's largest forest-tundra ecotonal belt. We quantified changes in tall shrub and tree canopy cover in eleven, widely-distributed Siberian ecotonal landscapes by comparing very-high-resolution photography from the Cold War-era “Gambit” and “Corona” satellite surveillance systems (1965-1969) with modern imagery. We also analyzed within-landscape patterns of vegetation change to evaluate the susceptibility of different landscape components to tall shrub and tree increase. The total cover of tall shrubs and trees increased in nine of eleven ecotones. In northwest Siberia, alder ( Alnus ) shrubland cover increased 5.3 – 25.9% in five ecotones. In Taymyr and Yakutia, larch ( Larix ) cover increased 3.0 – 6.7% within three ecotones, but declined 16.8% at a fourth ecotone due to thaw of ice-rich permafrost. In Chukotka, the total cover of alder and dwarf pine ( Pinus ) increased 6.1% within one ecotone and was little-changed at a second ecotone. Within most landscapes, shrub and tree increase was linked to specific geomorphic settings, especially those with active disturbance regimes such as permafrost patterned-ground, floodplains, and colluvial hillslopes. Mean summer temperatures increased at most ecotones since the mid-1960s, but rates of shrub and tree canopy cover expansion were not strongly correlated with temperature trends and were better correlated with mean annual precipitation. We conclude that shrub and tree cover is increasing in tundra ecotones across most of northern Siberia, but rates of increase vary widely regionally and at the landscape-scale. Our results indicate that extensive changes can occur within decades in moist, shrub-dominated ecotones, as in northwest Siberia, while changes are likely to occur much more slowly in the highly continental, larch-dominated ecotones of central and eastern Siberia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The adaptation of different species to warming temperatures has been increasingly studied. Moose ( Alces alces ) is the largest of the ungulate species occupying the northern latitudes across the globe, and in Finland it is the most important game species. It is very well adapted to severe cold temperatures, but has a relatively low tolerance to warm temperatures. Previous studies have documented changes in habitat use by moose due to high temperatures. In many of these studies the used areas have been classified according to how much thermal cover they were assumed to offer based on satellite/aerial imagery data. Here, we identified the vegetation structure in the areas used by moose under different thermal conditions. For this purpose we used airborne laser scanning (ALS) data extracted from the locations of GPS-collared moose. This provided us with detailed information about the relationships between moose and the structure of forests it uses in different thermal conditions and we were therefore able to determine and differentiate between the canopy structures at locations occupied by moose during different thermal conditions. We also discovered a threshold beyond which moose behaviour began to change significantly: as day temperatures began to reach 20 ○ C and higher, the search for areas with higher and denser canopies during daytime became evident. The difference was clear when compared to habitat use at lower temperatures, and was so strong that it provides supporting evidence to previous studies, suggesting that moose are able to modify their behaviour to cope with high temperatures, but also that the species is likely to be affected by warming climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient-poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus , Trifolium montanum , and Briza media . Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were rarely affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus , however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient-poor grassland species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The impact of climate change on the stability of soil organic carbon (SOC) remains a major source of uncertainty in predicting future changes in atmospheric CO 2 levels. One unsettled issue is whether the mineralization response to temperature depends on SOC mineralization rate. Long-term (〉25 years) bare fallow experiments (LTBF) in which the soil is kept free of any vegetation and organic inputs, and their associated archives of soil samples represent a unique research platform to examine this issue as with increasing duration of fallow, the lability of remaining total SOC decreases. We retrieved soils from LTBF experiments situated at Askov (Denmark), Grignon (France), Ultuna (Sweden) and Versailles (France) and sampled at the start of the experiments and after 25, 50, 52, and 79 years of bare fallow, respectively. Soils were incubated at 4, 12, 20 and 35 °C and the evolved CO 2 monitored. The apparent activation energy ( Ea ) of SOC was then calculated for similar loss of CO 2 at the different temperatures. The Ea was always higher for samples taken at the end of the bare-fallow period, implying a higher temperature sensitivity of stable C than of labile C. Our results provide strong evidence for a general relationship between temperature sensitivity and SOC stability upon which significant improvements in predictive models could be based. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e. the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio and G. erythrospilus , with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). By contrast, the more equatorial species ( G. histrio ) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32 – 33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer-term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr −1 , with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of regional forests in a changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of a rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data record. Here we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP), and tree-ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy-climatic datasets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large amount of black spruce ( Picea mariana ) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late 20th century (68% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross-sections of age 〉 70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in the Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19 th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300-year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature-driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Successful species interactions require that both partners share a similar cue. For many species, spring warming acts as a shared signal to synchronize mutualist behaviors. Spring flowering plants and the ants that disperse their seeds respond to warming temperatures so that ants forage when plants drop seeds. However, where warm-adapted ants replace cold-adapted ants, changes in this timing might leave early seeds stranded without a disperser. We investigate plant seed dispersal south and north of a distinct boundary between warm- and cold-adapted ants to determine if changes in the ant species influence local plant dispersal. The warm-adapted ants forage much later than the cold-adapted ants, and so we first assess natural populations of early and late blooming plants. We then transplant these plants south and north of the ant boundary to test whether distinct ant climate requirements disrupt the ant-plant mutualism. Whereas the early blooming plant's inability to synchronize with the warm-adapted ant leaves its populations clumped and patchy and its seedlings clustered around the parents in natural populations, when transplanted into the range of the cold-adapted ant, effective seed dispersal recovers. In contrast, the mutualism persists for the later blooming plant regardless of location because it sets seed later in spring when both warm- and cold-adapted ant species forage, resulting in effective seed dispersal. These results indicate that the climate response of species interactions, not just the species themselves, is integral in understanding ecological responses to a changing climate. Data linking phenological synchrony and dispersal are rare, and these results suggest a viable mechanism by which a species’ range is limited more by biotic than abiotic interactions – despite the general assumption that biotic influences are buried within larger climate drivers. These results show that biotic partner can be as fundamental a niche requirement as abiotic resources. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing ocean temperatures and strengthening boundary currents have caused the poleward migration of many marine species. Cubozoan jellyfish known to cause Irukandji syndrome have historically been confined to tropical waters but may be expanding into sub-tropical regions. Here we examine the interactive effects of warming and acidification on the population dynamics of polyps of an Irukandji jellyfish, Alatina nr mordens, and the formation of statoliths in newly metamorphosed medusae, to determine if this jellyfish could tolerate future conditions predicted for southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Two experiments, examining the orthogonal factors of temperature and pH were undertaken. Experiment 1 mimicked the current, ca. 2050 and ca. 2100 summer temperature and pH conditions predicted for SEQ using A1F1 scenarios (temperature: 25, 27, 29°C; pH: 7.9, 7.8, 7.6) and Experiment 2 mimicked current and future winter conditions (18 and 22°C, pH 7.9, 7.8, 7.6). All polyps in Experiment 1 survived and budded. Fewer polyps budded in the lower pH treatments but patterns varied slightly among temperature treatments. Statoliths at pH 7.6 were 24% narrower than those at pH 7.8 and 7.9. Most polyps survived the winter conditions mimicked by Experiment 2 but only polyps in the 22°C, pH 7.9 treatment increased significantly. The current absence of A . nr mordens medusae in SEQ, despite the polyps’ ability to tolerate the current temperature and pH conditions, suggests that ecological, rather than abiotic factors currently limit their distribution. Observations that budding was lower under low pH treatments suggest that rates of asexual reproduction will likely be much slower in the future. We consider that A . nr mordens polyps are likely to tolerate future conditions but are unlikely to thrive in the long term. However, if polyps can overcome potential ecological boundaries and acidification proceeds slowly A . nr mordens could expand polewards in the short-term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil CO 2 efflux ( F soil ) is the largest source of carbon from forests and reflects primary productivity as well as how carbon is allocated within forest ecosystems. Through early stages of stand development, both elevated [CO 2 ] and availability of soil nitrogen (N; sum of mineralization, deposition, and fixation) have been shown to increase gross primary productivity, but the long-term effects of these factors on F soil are less clear. Expanding on previous studies at the Duke Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) site, we quantified the effects of elevated [CO 2 ] and N fertilization on F soil using daily measurements from automated chambers over 10 years. Consistent with previous results, compared to ambient-unfertilized plots, annual F soil increased under elevated [CO 2 ] (~17%) and decreased with N (~21%). N fertilization under elevated [CO 2 ] reduced F soil to values similar to untreated plots. Over the study period, base respiration rates increased with leaf productivity but declined after productivity saturated. Despite treatment-induced differences in aboveground biomass, soil temperature and water content were similar among treatments. Inter-annually, low soil water content decreased annual F soil from potential values – estimated based on temperature alone assuming non-limiting soil water content – by ~0.7% per 1.0% reduction in relative extractable water. This effect was only slightly ameliorated by elevated [CO 2 ]. Variability of soil N availability among plots accounted for the spatial variability of F soil , showing a decrease of ~114 g C m -2 y -1 per 1 g m -2 increase in soil N availability, with consistently higher F soil in elevated [CO 2 ] plots ~127 g C per 100 ppm [CO 2 ] over the +200 ppm enrichment. Altogether, reflecting increased belowground carbon partitioning in response to greater plant nutritional needs, the effects of elevated [CO 2 ] and N fertilization on F soil in this stand are sustained beyond the early stages of stand development and through stabilization of annual foliage production. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e. on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N 2 O and yield-scaled N 2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH 4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH 4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N 2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer additions. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO 2 ], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21 st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ~2% for rainfed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (〈10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21 st century accelerating to more severe (〉20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway 8.5. This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Large-scale, long-term FACE (Free Air CO 2 -enrichment) experiments indicate that increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations will influence forest C cycling in unpredictable ways. It has been recently suggested that responses of mycorrhizal fungi could determine whether forest NPP (net primary production) is increased by elevated CO 2 over long time periods and if forests soils will function as sources or sinks of C in the future. We studied the dynamic responses of ectomycorrhizae to N fertilization and atmospheric CO 2 -enrichment at the Duke FACE experiment using minirhizotrons over a six year period (2005-2010). Stimulation of mycorrhizal production by elevated CO 2 was observed during only one (2007) of six years. This increased the standing crop of mycorrhizal tips during 2007 and 2008; during 2008, significantly higher mortality returned standing crop to ambient levels for the remainder of the experiment. It is therefore unlikely that increased production of mycorrhizal tips can explain the lack of progressive nitrogen limitations and associated increases in N uptake observed in CO 2 -enriched plots at this site. Fertilization generally decreased tree reliance on mycorrhizae as tip production declined with the addition of nitrogen as has been shown in many other studies. Annual NPP of mycorrhizal tips was greatest during years with warm January temperatures and during years with cool spring temperatures. A 2° C increase in average late spring temperatures (May and June) decreased annual production of mycorrhizal root tip length by 50%. This has important implications for ecosystem function in a warmer world in addition to potential for forest soils to sequester atmospheric C. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Permafrost thaw in the Arctic driven by climate change is mobilizing ancient terrigenous organic carbon (OC) into fluvial networks. Understanding the controls on metabolism of this OC is imperative for assessing its role with respect to climate feedbacks. In this study we examined the effect of inorganic nutrient supply and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition on aquatic extracellular enzyme activities (EEAs) in waters draining the Kolyma River Basin (Siberia), including permafrost derived OC. Reducing the phenolic content of the DOM pool resulted in dramatic increases in hydrolase EEAs (e.g. phosphatase activity increased 〉 28 fold) supporting the idea that high concentrations of polyphenolic compounds in DOM (e.g. plant structural tissues) inhibit enzyme synthesis or activity, limiting OC degradation. EEAs were significantly more responsive to inorganic nutrient additions only after phenolic inhibition was experimentally removed. In controlled mixtures of modern OC and thawed permafrost endmember OC sources, respiration rates per unit dissolved OC were 1.3 – 1.6 times higher in waters containing ancient carbon, suggesting that permafrost derived OC was more available for microbial mineralization. In addition, waters containing ancient permafrost derived OC supported elevated phosphatase and glucosidase activities. Based on these combined results, we propose that both composition and nutrient availability regulates DOM metabolism in Arctic aquatic ecosystems. Our empirical findings are incorporated into a mechanistic conceptual model highlighting two key enzymatic processes in the mineralization of riverine OM: 1) the role of phenol oxidase activity in reducing inhibitory phenolic compounds; and 2) the role of phosphatase in mobilizing organic P. Permafrost derived DOM degradation was less constrained by this initial “phenolic-OM” inhibition; thus, informing reports of high biological availability of ancient, permafrost derived DOM with clear ramifications for its metabolism in fluvial networks and feedbacks to climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecosystem functioning is simultaneously affected by changes in community composition and environmental change such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and subsequent ocean acidification. However, it largely remains uncertain how the effects of these factors compare to each other. Addressing this question, we experimentally tested the hypothesis that initial community composition and elevated CO 2 are equally important to the regulation of phytoplankton biomass. We full-factorially exposed three compositionally different marine phytoplankton communities to two different CO 2 levels and examined the effects and relative importance (ω 2 ) of the two factors and their interaction on phytoplankton biomass at bloom peak. The results showed that initial community composition had a significantly greater impact than elevated CO 2 on phytoplankton biomass, which varied largely among communities. We suggest that the different initial ratios between cyanobacteria, diatoms, and dinoflagellates might be the key for the varying competitive and thus functional outcome among communities. Furthermore, the results showed that depending on initial community composition elevated CO 2 selected for larger sized diatoms, which led to increased total phytoplankton biomass. Our study highlights the relevance of initial community composition, which strongly drives the functional outcome, when assessing impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. In particular, the increase in phytoplankton biomass driven by the gain of larger sized diatoms in response to elevated CO 2 potentially has strong implications for nutrient cycling and carbon export in future oceans. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Less than half of anthropogenic carbon emissions are accumulating in the atmosphere, due to large net fluxes into both the oceans and the land (Le Queré et al., 2012). The land sink in particular has increased markedly, doubling in strength since the 1960's, to reach 26 petagrams of carbon in the latest decade. However, the location and drivers of this large terrestrial sink are still relatively poorly constrained by atmospheric measurements (Ciais et al. 2013). Pan et al. (2011) recently utilised 〉1 million forest inventory plots to provide summaries of forest carbon stocks, and the first global bottom-up estimates of carbon fluxes for the world's forest biomes for the period 1990-2007. One key result was that almost all the residual global terrestrial carbon sink (i.e. carbon uptake after accounting for land use change), some 2.4 ± 0.4 Pg of carbon per year, is located in the world's established forests (Pan et al., 2011). The sink is distributed worldwide, with globally significant net fluxes into boreal and temperate forests, and a large sink in intact tropical forest, albeit with large uncertainty. Furthermore, Pan et al. (2011) showed that this tropical intact forest sink - may have faded from an estimated annual 1.3 ± 0.4 Pg C in the 1990's to 1.0 ± 0.5 Pg C for 2000-2007. The tropical intact sink is offset by a net land-use emission (1.5 Pg C yr −1 [1990-1999]) declining to 1.1 Pg C yr −1 [2000-2007]), and as a consequence aircraft measurements and inverse modelling studies indicate the tropics to be close to neutral in terms of net carbon fluxes (reviewed by Ciais et al. 2013). While the intact tropical forest sink values represent updates from similar values published previously (e.g., Lewis et al., 2009a), the fact that almost the entire residual terrestrial carbon sink is accounted for by the forests of the world was a notable discovery. Evidence from the ground now points to established forests being a net sink across almost every major forest region, including all extra-tropical forest regions analysed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tree status (e.g., pre- vs. post-budbreak) with continuous responses to fluctuating temperatures. By coherently synthesizing discrete observations with continuous responses to temperature variation, we accurately quantify how increasing temperature variation accelerates onset of growth. Application to warming experiments at two latitudes demonstrates that maximum responses to warming are concentrated in late winter, weeks ahead of the main budbreak period. Given that warming will not occur uniformly over the year, knowledge of when temperature variation has the most impact can guide prediction. Responses are large and heterogeneous, yet predictable. The approach has immediate application to forecasting effects of warming on growing season length, requiring only information that is readily available from weather stations and generated in climate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is expected to cause geographic redistributions of species. To the extent that species within assemblages have different niche requirements, assemblages may no longer remain intact and dis- and reassemble at current or new geographic locations. We explored how climate change projected by 2100 may transform the world's avian assemblages (characterized at a 110 km spatial grain) by modelling environmental niche-based changes to their dietary guild structure under 0 km, 500 km, and 2000 km dispersal distances. We examined guild structure changes at coarse (primary, high-level, and mixed consumers) and fine (frugivores, nectarivores, insectivores, herbivores, granivores, scavengers, omnivores, and carnivores) ecological resolutions to determine whether or not geographic co-occurrence patterns among guilds were associated with the magnitude to which guilds are functionally resolved. Dietary guilds vary considerably in their global geographic prevalence, and under broad-scale niche-based redistribution of species, these are projected to change very heterogeneously. A non-dispersal assumption results in the smallest projected changes to guild assemblages, but with significant losses for some regions and guilds, such as South American insectivores. Longer dispersal distances are projected to cause greater degrees of disassembly, and lead to greater homogenization of guild composition, especially in northern Asia and Africa. This arises because projected range gains and losses result in geographically heterogeneous patterns of guild compensation. Projected decreases especially of primary and mixed consumers most often are compensated by increases in high-level consumers, with increasing uncertainty about these outcomes as dispersal distance and degree of guild functional resolution increases. Further exploration into the consequences of these significant broad-scale ecological functional changes at the community or ecosystem level should be increasingly on the agenda for conservation science. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and duration of ENSO-related droughts for parts of South-East Asia until the end of this century exposing the remaining rainforests to increasing drought risk. A pan-tropical review of recorded drought-related tree mortalities in more than 100 monitoring plots before, during and after drought events suggested a higher drought-vulnerability of trees in South-East Asian than in Amazonian forests. Here, we present the results of a replicated (n=3 plots) throughfall exclusion experiment in a perhumid tropical rainforest in Sulawesi, Indonesia. In this first large-scale roof experiment outside semi-humid eastern Amazonia, 60% of the throughfall was displaced during the first 8 months and 80% during the subsequent 17 months, exposing the forest to severe soil desiccation for about 17 months. In the experiment's second year, wood production decreased on average by 40% with largely different responses of the tree families (ranging from -100 to +100% change). Most sensitive were trees with high radial growth rates under moist conditions. In contrast, tree height was only a secondary factor and wood specific gravity had no influence on growth sensitivity. Fine root biomass was reduced by 35% after 25 months of soil desiccation while fine root necromass increased by 250% indicating elevated fine root mortality. Cumulative aboveground litter production was not significantly reduced in this period. The trees from this Indonesian perhumid rainforest revealed similar responses of wood and litter production and root dynamics as those in two semi-humid Amazonian forests subjected to experimental drought. We conclude that trees from paleo- or neotropical forests growing in semi-humid or perhumid climates may not differ systematically in their growth sensitivity and vitality under sub-lethal drought stress. Drought vulnerability may depend more on stem cambial activity in moist periods than on tree height or wood specific gravity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil microbial communities in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands generally experience highly variable spatiotemporal rainfall patterns. Changes in precipitation regimes can affect belowground ecosystem processes such as decomposition and nutrient cycling by altering soil microbial community structure and function. The objective of this study was to determine if increased seasonal precipitation frequency and magnitude over a seven-year period would generate a persistent shift in microbial community characteristics and soil nutrient availability. We supplemented natural rainfall with large events (one/winter and three/summer) to simulate increased precipitation based on climate model predictions for this region. We observed a two year delay in microbial responses to supplemental precipitation treatments. In Years 3-5, higher microbial biomass, arbuscular mycorrhizae abundance, and soil enzyme C and P acquisition activities were observed in the supplemental water plots even during extended drought periods. In Years 5-7, available soil P was consistently lower in the watered plots compared to control plots. Shifts in soil P corresponded to higher fungal abundances, microbial C utilization activity, and soil pH. This study demonstrated that 25% shifts in seasonal rainfall can significantly influence soil microbial and nutrient properties, which in turn may have long-term effects on nutrient cycling and plant P uptake in this desert grassland. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: It is proposed that increases in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (N r )-deposition may cause temperate and boreal forests to sequester a globally significant quantity of carbon (C); however, long-term data from boreal forests describing how C sequestration responds to realistic levels of chronic N r -deposition are scarce. Using a long term (14-year) stand scale (0.1 ha) N-addition experiment (three levels: 0, 12.5, and 50 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ) in the boreal zone of northern Sweden, we evaluated how chronic N additions altered N uptake and biomass of understory communities, and whether changes in understory communities explained N uptake and C sequestration by trees. We hypothesized that understory communities (i.e. mosses and shrubs) serve as important sinks for low-level N additions, with the strength of these sinks weakening as chronic N addition rates increase, due to shifts in species composition. We further hypothesized that trees would exhibit non-linear increases in N acquisition, and subsequent C sequestration as N addition rates increased, due to a weakening understory N sink. Our data showed that understory biomass was reduced by 50% in response to the high N addition treatment, mainly due to reduced moss biomass. A 15 N labelling experiment showed that feather mosses acquired the largest fraction of applied label, with this fraction decreasing as the chronic N addition level increased. Contrary to our hypothesis, the proportion of label taken up by trees was equal (~8%) across all three N addition treatments. The relationship between N addition and C sequestration in all vegetation pools combined was linear, and had a slope of 16 kg C kg −1 N. While canopy retention of N r deposition may cause C sequestration rates to be slightly different than this estimate, our data suggests that a minor quantity of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are sequestered into boreal forests as a result of N r deposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Urbanization is one of the most extensive and ecologically significant changes happening to terrestrial environments, as it strongly affects the distribution of biodiversity. It is well established that native species richness is reduced in urban and suburban areas, but the species traits that predict tolerance to urbanization are yet little understood. In birds, one of the most studied groups in this respect, evidence is appearing that acoustic traits influence urban living, but it is unknown how this compares to the effects of more obvious ecological traits that facilitate urban living. Therefore, it remains unclear whether acoustic communication is an important predictor of urban tolerance among species. Here, with a comparative study across 140 European and North American passerines, I show that high song frequency, which is less masked by the low-frequency anthropogenic noise, is associated with urban tolerance, with an effect size over half that of the most important ecological trait studied: off-ground nesting. Other nesting and foraging traits accepted to facilitate urban living did not differ for species occurring in urban environments. Thus, the contribution of acoustic traits for passerine urban tolerance approximates that of more obvious ecological traits. Nonetheless, effect sizes of the biological predictors of urban tolerance were low and the phylogenetic signal for urban tolerance was null, both of which suggest that factors other than phenotypic traits have major effects on urban tolerance. A simple possibility is exposure to urbanization, since there was a higher proportion of urban-tolerant species in Europe, which is more urbanized than North America. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: There is evidence that climate change induced tree mortalities in boreal and temperate forests and increased forest turnover rates (both mortality and recruitment rates) in Amazon forests. However, no study has examined China's tropical and subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests (TEBF) that cover 〉26% of China's terrestrial land . The sustainability of this biome is vital to the maintenance of local ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, climatic regulation etc.), many of which may influence patterns of atmospheric circulation and composition at regional to global scales. Here we analyze time-series data collected from thirteen permanent plots within China's unmanaged TEBF to study whether and how this biome has changed over recent decades. We find that the numbers of individuals and species for shrub and small tree have increased since 1978, whereas the numbers of individuals and species for tree have decreased over this same time period. The shift in species composition is accompanied by a decrease in the mean DBH (diameter at breast height) for all individuals combined. China's TEBF may thereby be transitioning from cohorts of fewer and larger individuals to ones of more and smaller individuals, which shows a unique change pattern differing from the documented. Regional-scale drying is likely responsible for the biome's reorganization. This biome-wide reconstitution would deeply impact the regimes of carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation and have implications for the sustainability of economic development in the area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water-quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water-quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally-oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the U.S. into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta ) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: It has recently been found that the frequency distribution of remotely sensed tree cover in the tropics has three distinct modes, which seem to correspond to forest, savanna and treeless states. This pattern has been suggested to imply that these states represent alternative attractors, and that the response of these systems to climate change would be characterized by critical transitions and hysteresis. Here, we show how this inference is contingent upon mechanisms at play. We present a simple dynamical model that can generate three alternative tree cover states (forest, savanna and a treeless state), based on known mechanisms, and use this model to simulate patterns of tree cover under different scenarios. We use these synthetic data to show that the hysteresis inferred from remotely sensed tree cover patterns will be inflated by spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions. On the other hand, we show that the hysteresis inferred from satellite data may actually underestimate real hysteresis in response to climate change if there exists a positive feedback between regional tree cover and precipitation. Our results also indicate that such positive feedback between vegetation and climate should cause direct shifts between forest and a treeless state (rather than through an intermediate savanna-state) to become more likely. Lastly, we show how directionality of historical change in conditions may bias the observed relationship between tree cover and environmental conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993–2012 (with years 2005–2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.

Description: Desert annuals are a critically important component of desert communities and may be particularly responsive to increasing atmospheric [CO 2 ] because of their high potential growth rates and flexible phenology. During the ten-year life of the Nevada Desert FACE (Free-air CO 2 enrichment) Facility, we evaluated the productivity, reproductive allocation, and community structure of annuals in response to long-term elevated [CO 2 ] exposure. The dominant forb and grass species exhibited accelerated phenology, increased size, and higher reproduction at elevated [CO 2 ] in a wet El Niño year near the beginning of the experiment. However, a multi-year dry cycle resulted in no increases in productivity or reproductive allocation for the remainder of the experiment. At the community level, early indications of increased dominance of the invasive Bromus rubens at elevated [CO 2 ] gave way to an absence of Bromus in the community during a drought cycle, with a resurgence late in the experiment in response to higher rainfall and a corresponding high density of Bromus in a final soil seed bank analysis, particularly at elevated [CO 2 ]. This long-term experiment resulted in two primary conclusions: (1) elevated [CO 2 ] does not increase productivity of annuals in most years; and (2) relative stimulation of invasive grasses will likely depend on future precipitation, with a wetter climate favoring invasive grasses but currently predicted greater aridity favoring native dicots. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: During the late Miocene, a dramatic global expansion of C 4 plant distribution occurred with broad spatial and temporal variations. Although the event is well documented, whether subsequent expansions were caused by a decreased atmospheric CO 2 concentration or climate change is a contentious issue. In the present study, we used an improved inverse vegetation modeling approach that accounts for the physiological responses of C 3 and C 4 plants to quantitatively reconstruct the paleoclimate in the Siwalik of Nepal based on pollen and carbon isotope data. We also studied the sensitivity of the C 3 and C 4 plants to changes in the climate and the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. We suggest that the expansion of the C 4 plant distribution during the late Miocene may have been primarily triggered by regional aridification and temperature increases. The expansion was unlikely caused by reduced CO 2 levels alone. Our findings suggest that this abrupt ecological shift mainly resulted from climate changes related to the decreased elevation of the Himalayan foreland. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Projections of future changes in land carbon (C) storage using biogeochemical models depend on accurately modeling the interactions between the C and nitrogen (N) cycles. Here, we present a framework for analyzing N limitation in global biogeochemical models to explore how C-N interactions of current models compare to field observations, identify the processes causing model divergence, and identify future observation and experiment needs. We used a set of N fertilization simulations from two global biogeochemical models (CLM-CN and O-CN) that use different approaches to modeling C-N interactions. On the global scale, net primary productivity (NPP) in the CLM-CN model was substantially more responsive to N fertilization than in the O-CN model. The most striking difference between the two models occurred for humid tropical forests, where the CLM-CN simulated a 62% increase in NPP at high N addition levels (30 g N m −2 yr −1 ), while the O-CN predicted a 2% decrease in NPP due to N fertilization increasing plant respiration more than photosynthesis. Across 35 temperate and boreal forest sites with field N fertilization experiments, we show that the CLM-CN simulated a 46% increase in aboveground NPP in response to N, which exceeded the observed increase of 25%. In contrast, the O-CN only simulated a 6% increase in aboveground NPP at the N fertilization sites. Despite the small response of NPP to N fertilization, the O-CN model accurately simulated ecosystem retention of N and the fate of added N to vegetation when compared to empirical 15 N tracer application studies. In contrast, the CLM-CN predicted lower total ecosystem N retention and partitioned more losses to volatilization than estimated based from observed N budgets of small catchments. These results point to the need for model improvements for both models to enhance the accuracy with which global C-N cycle feedbacks can be simulated. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This study reports the first well-replicated analysis of continuous coral growth records from warmer-water reefs (mean annual SST 〉28.5°C) around the Thai-Malay Peninsula in Southeast Asia. Based on analyses of 70 colonies sampled from 15 reefs within six locations, region-wide declines in coral calcification rate (~18.6%), linear extension rate (~15.4%) and skeletal bulk density (~3.9%) were observed over a 31-year period from 1980–2010. Decreases in calcification and linear extension rates were observed at five of the six locations and ranged from ~17.2-21.6% and ~11.4–19.6% respectively, while decline in skeletal bulk density was a consequence of significant reductions at only two locations (~6.9% and ~10.7%). A significant link between region-wide growth rates and average annual SST was found, and Porites spp. demonstrated a high thermal threshold of ~29.4°C before calcification rates declined. Responses at individual locations within the region were more variable with links between SST and calcification rates being significant at only four locations. Rates of sea temperature warming at locations in the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean) (~1.3°C decade −1 ) were almost twice those in the South China Sea (Pacific Ocean) (~0.7°C decade −1 ), but this was not reflected in the magnitude of calcification declines at corresponding locations. Considering that massive Porites spp. are major reef-builders around Southeast Asia, this region-wide growth decline is a cause for concern for future reef accretion rates and resilience. However, this study suggests that the future rates and patterns of change within the region are unlikely to be uniform or dependent solely on the rates of change in the thermal environment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Although striking changes have been documented in plant and animal phenology over the past century, less is known about how the fungal kingdom's phenology has been changing. A few recent studies have documented changes in fungal fruiting in Europe in the last few decades, but the geographic and taxonomic extent of these changes, the mechanisms behind these changes, and their relationships to climate, are not well understood. Here, we analyzed herbarium data of 274 species of fungi from Michigan to test the hypotheses that fruiting times of fungi depend on annual climate, and that responses depend on taxonomic and functional groups. We show that the fungal community overall fruits later in warmer and drier years, which has led to a shift toward later fruiting dates for autumn-fruiting species, consistent with existing evidence. However, we also show that these effects are highly variable among species and are partly explained by basic life history characteristics. Resulting differences in climate sensitivities are expected to affect community structure as climate changes. This study provides a unique picture of the climate-dependence of fungal phenology in North America and an approach for quantifying how individual species and broader fungal communities will respond to ongoing climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A unique long-term phenological dataset of over 110,000 records of 1st cutting dates for haymaking across Germany, spanning the years 1951-2011 was examined. In addition, we analysed a long-term dataset on the beginning of flowering of meadow foxtail ( Alopecurus pratensis ) covering the last 20 years. We tested whether hay cutting dates (based on a human decision when to cut) showed trends, temperature relationships and spatial distribution similar to the development of this grassland species, and if these trends could be related to climate change. The timing of 1st hay cut was strongly influenced (p 〈 0.001) by altitude, latitude and longitude, revealing in particular an east-west gradient. Over the past 60 years there have been changes in the timing of hay cutting, with the majority of German federal states having significant (p 〈 0.05) advances of approximately 1 day per decade. Overall, the response to mean March- May temperature was highly significant (-2.87 days °C −1 ; p 〈 0.001). However, in the last 20 years no federal state experienced a significant advance and two were even significantly delayed. The temperature response in this post-1991 period became less or non significant for most of the federal states. We suggest that differences in agricultural land use and unequal uptakes of Agri-Environment Schemes (AES, which encourage later cutting) were likely to be responsible for the regional differences, while the general increase in AES appears to have confounded the overall trend in hay cutting in the last 20 years. Trends over time and responses to temperature were small relative to those associated with the phenology of meadow foxtail. The advance in phenology of this species is greater than the advance in hay cutting, implying that hay cutting may not be keeping pace with a changing climate, which may have a positive effect on grassland ecology. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The rate of vegetation recovery from boreal wildfire influences terrestrial carbon cycle processes and climate feedbacks by affecting the surface energy budget and land-atmosphere carbon exchange. Previous forest recovery assessments using satellite optical-infrared normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tower CO 2 eddy covariance techniques indicate rapid vegetation recovery within 5 to 10 years, but these techniques are not directly sensitive to changes in vegetation biomass. Alternatively, the vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter from satellite passive microwave remote sensing can detect changes in canopy biomass structure and may provide a useful metric of post-fire vegetation response to inform regional recovery assessments. We analyzed a multi-year (2003-2010) satellite VOD record from the NASA AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) sensor to estimate forest recovery trajectories for 14 large boreal fires from 2004 in Alaska and Canada. The VOD record indicated initial post-fire canopy biomass recovery within 3 to 7 years, lagging NDVI recovery by 1 to 5 years. The VOD lag was attributed to slower non-photosynthetic (woody) and photosynthetic (foliar) canopy biomass recovery, relative to the faster canopy greenness response indicated from the NDVI. The duration of VOD recovery to pre-burn conditions was also directly proportional (p〈0.01) to satellite (MODIS) estimated tree cover loss used as a metric of fire severity. Our results indicate that vegetation biomass recovery from boreal fire disturbance is generally slower than reported from previous assessments based solely on satellite optical-infrared remote sensing, while the VOD parameter enables more comprehensive assessments of boreal forest recovery. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Shifts in precipitation regimes are an inherent component of climate change, but in low energy systems are often assumed to be less important than changes in temperature. Because soil moisture is the hydrological variable most proximally linked to plant performance during the growing season in arctic-alpine habitats, it may offer the most useful perspective on the influence of changes in precipitation on vegetation. Here we quantify the influence of soil moisture for multiple vegetation properties at fine spatial scales, to determine the potential importance of soil moisture under changing climatic conditions. A fine-scale dataset, comprising vascular species cover and field-quantified ecologically-relevant environmental parameters, was analysed to determine the influence of soil moisture relative to other key abiotic predictors. Soil moisture was strongly related to community composition, species richness and the occurrence patterns of individual species, having a similar or greater influence than soil temperature, pH and solar radiation. Soil moisture varied considerably over short distances, and this fine-scale heterogeneity may contribute to offsetting the ecological impacts of changes in precipitation for species not limited to extreme soil moisture conditions. In conclusion, soil moisture is a key driver of vegetation properties, both at the species- and community-level, even in this low energy system. Soil moisture conditions represent an important mechanism through which changing climatic conditions impact vegetation, and advancing our predictive capability will therefore require a better understanding of how soil moisture mediates the effects of climate change on biota. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N 2 O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N 2 O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km 2 , over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N 2 O-N•m −2 •d −1 , respectively. N 2 O saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co-regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N 2 O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH 4 + ) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N 2 O production and were better predictors of N 2 O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N 2 O-N•yr −1 N 2 O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N 2 O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N 2 O emission. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Our ability to project the impact of global change on marine ecosystem is limited by our poor understanding on how to predict species sensitivity. For example, the impact of ocean acidification is highly species-specific, even in closely related taxa. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the tolerance range of a given species to decreased pH corresponds to their natural range of exposure. Larvae of the green sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis were cultured from fertilization to metamorphic competence (29 days) under a wide range of pH (from pH T =8.0/ p CO 2 ≈480μatm to pH T =6.5/ p CO 2 ≈20000μatm) covering present (from pH T 8.7 to 7.6), projected near-future's variability (from pH T 8.3 to 7.2) and beyond. Decreasing pH impacted all tested parameters (mortality, symmetry, growth, morphometry and respiration). Development of normal, although showing morphological plasticity, swimming larvae was possible as low as pH T ≥7.0. Within that range, decreasing pH increased mortality and asymmetry and decreased body length growth rate. Larvae raised at lowered pH and with similar body length had shorter arms and a wider body. Relative to a given body length, respiration rates and stomach volume both increased with decreasing pH suggesting changes in energy budget. At the lowest pHs (pH T ≤6.5), all the tested parameters were strongly negatively affected and no larva survived past 13 days post-fertilization. In conclusion, sea urchin larvae appeared to be highly plastic when exposed to decreased pH until a physiological tipping point at pH T =7.0. However, this plasticity was associated with direct (increased mortality) and indirect (decreased growth) consequences for fitness. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's “third pole”) has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetlands and increased CH 4 consumption of meadows, but might increase CH 4 emissions from lakes. Warming induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 . Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g., grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Some species are adapting to changing environments by expanding their geographic ranges. Understanding whether range shifts will be accompanied by increased exposure to other threats is crucial to predicting when and where new populations could successfully establish. If species overlap to a greater extent with human development under climate change, this could form ecological traps which are attractive to dispersing individuals, but the use of which substantially reduces fitness. Until recently, the core nesting range for the Critically Endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle ( Lepidochelys kempii ) was ~1,000km of sparsely populated coastline in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Over the past twenty-five years, this species has expanded its range into populated areas of coastal Florida (〉1,500km outside the historical range), where nesting now occurs annually. Suitable Kemp's ridley nesting habitat has persisted for at least 140,000 years in the western Gulf of Mexico, and climate change models predict further nesting range expansion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Atlantic Ocean. Range expansion is 6-12% more likely to occur along uninhabited stretches of coastline than are current nesting beaches, suggesting that novel nesting areas will not be associated with high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Although the high breeding-site fidelity of some migratory species could limit adaptation to climate change, rapid population recovery following effective conservation measures may enhance opportunities for range expansion. Anticipating the interactive effects of past or contemporary conservation measures, climate change, and future human activities will help focus long-term conservation strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950-2011 to study the long-term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO2 concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (〉45oN) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days ( p 〈 0.01, 1982–2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, p 〈 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, p 〉 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at circumpolar scale, p 〈 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long-term increase (22.2% since 1972, p 〈 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO2 annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO2 uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO2 to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Coastal wetlands have the capacity to retain and denitrify large quantities of reactive nitrogen (N), making them important in attenuating increased anthropogenic N flux to coastal ecosystems. The ability of coastal wetlands to retain and transform N is being reduced by wetland losses resulting from land development. Nitrogen retention in coastal wetlands is further threatened by the increasing frequency and spatial extent of saltwater-inundation in historically freshwater ecosystems, due to the combined effects of dredging, declining river discharge to coastal areas due to human water use, increased drought frequency, and accelerating sea-level rise. Because saltwater incursion may affect N cycling through multiple mechanisms, the impacts of salinization on coastal freshwater wetland N retention and transformation are not well understood. Here, we show that repeated annual saltwater incursion during late summer droughts in the coastal plain of North Carolina changed N export from organic to inorganic forms and led to a doubling of annual NH 4 + export from a 440 hectare former agricultural field undergoing wetland restoration. Soil solution NH 4 + concentrations in two mature wetlands also increased with salinization, but the magnitude of increase was smaller than in the former agricultural field. Long-term saltwater exposure experiments with intact soil columns demonstrated that much of the increase in reactive N released could be explained by exchange of salt cations with sediment NH 4 + . Using these findings together with the predicted flooding of 1661 km 2 of wetlands along the NC coast by 2100, we estimate that saltwater incursion into these coastal areas could release up to 18,077 Mg N, or approximately half the annual NH 4 + flux of the Mississippi River. Our results suggest that that saltwater incursion into coastal freshwater wetlands globally could lead to increased N loading to sensitive coastal waters. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recently there have been several studies using open top chambers (OTCs) or cloches to examine the response of Arctic plant communities to artificially elevated temperatures. Few, however, have investigated multi-trophic systems, or the effects of both temperature and vertebrate grazing treatments on invertebrates. This study investigated trophic interactions between an herbivorous insect ( Sitobion calvulum , Aphididae), a woody perennial host plant ( Salix polaris ) and a selective vertebrate grazer (barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis ). In a factorial experiment, the responses of the insect and its host to elevated temperatures using open top chambers (OTCs) and to three levels of goose grazing pressure were assessed over two summer growing seasons (2004 and 2005). OTCs significantly enhanced the leaf phenology of Salix in both years and there was a significant OTC by goose presence interaction in 2004. Salix leaf number was unaffected by treatments in both years, but OTCs increased leaf size and mass in 2005. Salix reproduction and the phenology of flowers were unaffected by both treatments. Aphid densities were increased by OTCs but unaffected by goose presence in both years. While goose presence had little effect on aphid density or host plant phenology in this system, the OTC effects provide interesting insights into the possibility of phenological synchrony disruption. The advanced phenology of Salix effectively lengthens the growing season for the plant, but despite a close association with leaf maturity, the population dynamics of the aphid appeared to lack a similar phenological response except for the increased population observed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Evidence is accumulating that species’ responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip ( Haliotis rubra ) and greenlip abalone ( H. laevigata ) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in area of occupancy. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and area of occupancy has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species’ responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: An elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]) can reduce stomatal conductance of leaves for most plant species, including rice ( Oryza sativa L.). However, few studies have quantified seasonal changes in the effects of elevated [CO 2 ] on canopy evapotranspiration, which integrates the response of stomatal conductance of individual leaves with other responses, such as leaf area expansion, changes in leaf surface temperature, and changes in developmental stages, in field conditions. We conducted a field experiment to measure seasonal changes in stomatal conductance of the uppermost leaves and in the evapotranspiration, transpiration, and evaporation rates using a lysimeter method. The study was conducted for flooded rice under open-air CO 2 elevation. Stomatal conductance decreased by 27% under elevated [CO 2 ], averaged throughout the growing season, and evapotranspiration decreased by an average of 5% during the same period. The decrease in daily evapotranspiration caused by elevated [CO 2 ] was more significantly correlated with air temperature and leaf area index rather than with other parameters of solar radiation, days after transplanting, vapor-pressure deficit and FAO reference evapotranspiration. This indicates that higher air temperatures, within the range from 16 to 27 °C, and a larger leaf area index, within the range from 0 to 4 m 2 m −2 , can increase the magnitude of the decrease in evapotranspiration rate caused by elevated [CO 2 ]. The crop coefficient (i.e., the evapotranspiration rate divided by the FAO reference evapotranspiration rate) was 1.24 at ambient [CO 2 ] and 1.17 at elevated [CO 2 ]. This study provides the first direct measurement of the effects of elevated [CO 2 ] on rice canopy evapotranspiration under open-air conditions using the lysimeter method, and the results will improve future predictions of water use in rice fields. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Description: Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Description: The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world′s largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO 2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2xCO 2 and 4xCO 2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4xCO 2 scenarios in order to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: one corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Description: Adoption of reduced-impact logging (RIL) methods could reduce CO 2 emissions by 30-50% across at least 20% of remaining tropical forests. We developed two cost effective and robust indices for comparing the climate benefits (reduced CO 2 emissions) due to RIL. The indices correct for variability in the volume of commercial timber among concessions. We determined that a correction for variability in terrain slope was not needed. We found that concessions certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC, N=3), when compared with non-certified concessions (N=6), did not have lower overall CO 2 emissions from logging activity (felling, skidding, and hauling). On the other hand, FSC certified concessions did have lower emissions from one type of logging impact (skidding), and we found evidence of a range of improved practices using other field metrics. One explanation for these results may be that FSC criteria and indicators, and associated RIL practices, were not designed to achieve overall emissions reductions. Also, commonly used field metrics are not reliable proxies for overall logging emissions performance. Further, the simple distinction between certified and non-certified concessions does not fully represent the complex history of investments in improved logging practices. To clarify the relationship between RIL and emissions reductions, we propose the more explicit term “RIL-C” to refer to the sub-set of RIL practices that can be defined by quantified thresholds and that result in measurable emissions reductions. If tropical forest certification is to be linked with CO 2 emissions reductions, certification standards need to explicitly require RIL-C practices. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in soils through improved management of forest and agricultural land is considered to have high potential for global CO 2 mitigation. However, the potential of soils to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) in a stable form, which is limited by the stabilization of SOC against microbial mineralization, is largely unknown. In this study, we estimated the C sequestration potential of soils in southeast Germany by calculating the potential SOC saturation of silt and clay particles according to Hassink (1997) on the basis of 516 soil profiles. The determination of the current SOC content of silt and clay fractions for major soil units and land uses allowed an estimation of the C saturation deficit corresponding to the long-term C sequestration potential. The results showed that cropland soils have a low level of C saturation of around 50% and could store considerable amounts of additional SOC. A relatively high C sequestration potential was also determined for grassland soils. In contrast, forest soils had a low C sequestration potential as they were almost C saturated. A high proportion of sites with a high degree of apparent oversaturation revealed that in acidic, coarse-textured soils the relation to silt and clay is not suitable to estimate the stable C saturation. A strong correlation of the C saturation deficit with temperature and precipitation allowed a spatial estimation of the C sequestration potential for Bavaria. In total, about 395 Mt CO 2 -equivalents could theoretically be stored in A horizons of cultivated soils – four times the annual emission of greenhouse gases in Bavaria. Although achieving the entire estimated C storage capacity is unrealistic, improved management of cultivated land could contribute significantly to CO 2 mitigation. Moreover, increasing SOC stocks have additional benefits with respect to enhanced soil fertility and agricultural productivity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Drought affects more people than any other natural disaster but there is little understanding of how ecosystems react to droughts. This study jointly analyzed spatio-temporal changes of drought patterns with vegetation phenology and productivity changes between 1999 and 2010 in major European bioclimatic zones. The Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used as drought indicator whereas changes in growing season length and vegetation productivity were assessed using remote sensing time-series of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Drought spatio-temporal variability was analyzed using a Principal Component Analysis, leading to the identification of four major drought events between 1999 and 2010 in Europe. Correspondence Analysis showed that at the continental scale the productivity and phenology reacted differently to the identified drought events depending on ecosystem and land cover. Northern and Mediterranean ecosystems proved to be more resilient to droughts in terms of vegetation phenology and productivity developments. Western Atlantic regions and Eastern Europe showed strong agglomerations of decreased productivity and shorter vegetation growing season length, indicating that these ecosystems did not buffer the effects of drought well. In a climate change perspective, increase in drought frequency or intensity may result in larger impacts over these ecosystems, thus management and adaptation strategies should be strengthened in these areas of concerns. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ‘Humans are now the most significant driver of global change, propelling the planet into a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene’. This landmark statement from the Stockholm Memorandum (2011) is supported by an overwhelming consensus in the scientific literature (Cook et al ., 2013). It is crucial to acknowledge, however, that several of Earth's ecosystems are still little affected by direct human activity, and appropriate conservation measures are fully feasible and should be enforced accordingly (Caro et al ., 2012). Arctic marine ecosystems belong to this category. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970 -2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared to simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over seven years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Santín et al. (2014) report the conversion of different boreal forest biomass pools to pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) during a forest fire, and suggest that ~100 Tg C y −1 may be converted to PyOM in boreal forests globally. They further suggest that PyOM formation represents a missing C sink. The phrase ‘missing C sink’ derives from a lack of closure in the atmospheric C budget. Approximately ⅓ of the CO 2 emitted to the atmosphere via burning of fossil fuels and land use change cannot be accounted for after oceanic uptake and atmospheric accumulations are tallied (Schlesinger and Bernhardt 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: Conservative Detrending applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring-widths with age; Basal Area Correction transforms diameter into basal-area growth; Regional Curve Standardization detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and Size Class Isolation calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring dataset of Melia azedarach , a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results – a growth decline over time – but the widely used Conservative Detrending method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth trend detection), reliability (1- probability of detecting false trends), and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade), and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except Conservative Detrending, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. Basal Area Correction showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend-detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend Size Class Isolation and Regional Curve Standardization, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long-term growth trends. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Although it is established that there exist potential trade‐offs between grain yield and grain quality in wheat exposed to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3), their underlying causes remain poorly explored. To investigate the processes affecting grain quality under altered CO2 and O3, we analysed 57 experiments with CO2 or O3 exposure in different exposure systems. The study covered 24 cultivars studied in 112 experimental treatments from 11 countries. A significant growth dilution effect on grain protein was found: a change in grain yield of 10% by O3 was associated with a change in grain protein yield of 8.1% (R2=0.96), while a change in yield effect of 10% by CO2 was linked to a change in grain protein yield effect of 7.5% (R2=0.74). Superimposed on this effect, elevated CO2, but not O3, had a significant negative effect on grain protein yield also in the absence of effects on grain yield, indicating that there exists a process by which CO2 restricts grain protein accumulation, which is absent for O3. Grain mass, another quality trait, was more strongly affected by O3 than grain number, while the opposite was true for CO2. Harvest index was strongly and negatively influenced by O3, but was unaffected by CO2. We conclude that yield vs. protein trade‐offs for wheat in response to CO2 and O3 are constrained by close relationships between effects on grain biomass and less than proportional effects on grain protein. An important and novel finding was that elevated CO2 has a direct negative effect on grain protein accumulation independent of the yield effect, supporting recent evidence of CO2‐induced impairment of nitrate uptake/assimilation. Finally, our results demonstrated that processes underlying responses of grain yield vs. quality trade‐offs are very different in wheat exposed to elevated O3 compared to elevated CO2.

Description: Abstract Experimental study of the effects of projected climate change on plant phenology allows us to isolate effects of warming on life history events such as leaf out. We simulated a 2°C temperature increase and 20% precipitation increase in a recently harvested temperate deciduous forest community in central Pennsylvania, USA, and observed the leaf out phenology of all species in 2009 and 2010. Over 130 plant species were monitored weekly in study plots, but due to high variability in species composition among plots, species were grouped into five functional groups: short forbs, tall forbs, shrubs, small trees, and large trees. Tall forbs and large trees, which usually emerge in the late spring, advanced leaf out 14‐18 days in response to warming. Short forbs, shrubs, and small trees emerge early in spring and did not alter their phenology in response to warming or increased precipitation treatments. Earlier leaf out of tall forbs and large trees coincided with almost three weeks of increased community‐level leaf area index (LAI), indicating greater competition and a condensed spring green‐up period. While phenology of large trees and tall forbs appears to be strongly influenced by temperature‐based growth cues, our results suggest that photoperiod and chilling cues more strongly influence the leaf out of other functional groups. Reduced freeze events and warmer temperatures from predicted climate change will interact with non‐temperature growth cues to have cascading consequences throughout the ecosystem.

Description: (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12697/full) The above article, published online on 18 August 2014 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors, Dr Melanie Harsch and Associate Professor Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, journal Editor‐in‐Chief, Professor Stephen Long, and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed for the following reasons: a coding error affected the results and therefore invalidated the broad‐scale conclusions presented in the article. The article presented broad‐scale patterns of species distribution shifts in response to recent climate change. Unfortunately, it has since been found that one approach used to account for sampling bias, the null model approach, was affected by the coding error. Following the identification of the coding error, we are therefore retracting the article. We thank Drs Adam Wolf and William Anderegg for bringing this issue to our attention. Reference Harsch MA, Hille Ris Lambers J (2014) Species distributions shift downward across western North America. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12697.

Description: Rapid population growth and economic development have led to increased anthropogenic pressures on the Tibetan Plateau, causing significant land cover changes with potentially severe ecological consequences. To assess whether these pressures are also affecting the remote montane-boreal lakes on the SETibetan Plateau, fossil pollen and diatom data from two lakes were synthesised. The interplay of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem response was explored in respect to climate variability and human activity over the past 200 years. Non-metric multidimensional scaling and procrustes rotation analysis were undertaken to determine whether pollen and diatom responses in each lake were similar and synchronous. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis was used to develop quantitative estimates of compositional species turnover. Despite instrumental evidence of significant climatic warming on the southeastern Plateau, the pollen and diatom records indicate very stable species composition throughout their profiles and show only very subtle responses to environmental changes over the past 200 years. The compositional species turnover (0.36-0.94 SD) is relatively low in comparison to the species reorganisations known from the periods during the mid- and early-Holocene (0.64-1.61 SD) on the SE Plateau, and also in comparison to turnover rates of sediment records from climate - sensitive regions in the circum-arctic. Our results indicate that climatically-induced ecological thresholds are not yet crossed, but that human activity has an increasing influence, particularly on the terrestrial ecosystem in our study area. Synergistic processes of post Little Ice Age warming, 20 th century climate warming and extensive reforestations since the 19 th century have initiated a change from natural oak-pine forests to semi-natural, likely less resilient pine-oak forests. Further warming and anthropogenic disturbances would possibly exceed the ecological threshold of these ecosystems and lead to severe ecological consequences.

Description: Combining a climatic envelope modeling technique with more than two centuries (1800-2009) of distribution records has revealed the effects of a changing climate on the egg-laying monotreme, the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus . We show that the main factor associated with platypus occurrence switched from aquatic habitat availability (estimated by rainfall) to thermal tolerances (estimated by annual maximum temperature) in the 1960's. This correlates directly with the change in the annual maximum temperature anomaly from cooler to warmer conditions in southeastern Australia. Modeling of platypus habitat under emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and B2) revealed large decreases (〉 30%) in thermally suitable habitat by 2070. This reduction, compounded by increasing demands for water for agriculture and potable use, suggests that there is real cause for concern over the future status of this species, and highlights the need for restoration of thermal refugia within the platypus’ modeled range.

Description: Anthropogenically-mediated decreases in pH, termed ocean acidification (OA), may be a major threat to marine organisms and communities. Research has focussed mainly on tropical coral reefs, but temperate reefs play a no less important ecological role in colder waters, where OA effects may first be manifest. Here, we report that trends in pH at the surface of three ecologically-important cold-water calcifiers (a primary producer and herbivores), under a range of fluid flows, differ substantially from one another, and for two of the three calcifiers the pH, during darkness, is lower than the mean projected pH due to OA for the surface waters of the global ocean beyond the year 2100. Using micro-optodes, we show that each calcifier had a different pH gradient between its surface and mainstream seawater, i.e. within the diffusion boundary layer which appears to act as an environmental buffer to mainstream pH. Abalone encountered only mainstream seawater pH, whereas pH at the sea urchins’ surface was reduced by ~0.35 units. For coralline algae, pH was ~0.5 units higher in the light and ~0.35 units lower under darkness than in ambient mainstream seawater. This wide range of pH within the DBL of some calcifiers will probably affect their performance under projected future reductions in pH due to OA. Differing exposure to a range of surface pH may result in differential susceptibility of calcifiers to OA. Such fluctuations are no doubt regulated by the interplay of water movement, morphology and metabolic rates (e.g. respiration, calcification and/or photosynthesis). Our study, by considering physics (flow regime), chemistry (pH gradients versus OA future projections) and biology (trophic level, physiology and morphology), reveals that predicting species-specific responses and subsequent ecosystem restructuring to OA is complex and requires a holistic, ecomechanical, approach.

Description: Maximum and minimum soil temperatures affect belowground processes. In the past 50 years in arid regions, measured reductions in the daily temperature range of air (DTR air ) most likely generated similar reductions in the unmeasured daily temperature range of soil (DTR soil ). However, the role of DTR soil in regulating microbial and plant processes has not been well described. We experimentally reduced DTR soil in the Chihuahuan Desert at Big Bend National Park over 3 years. We used shade cloth that effectively decreased DTR soil by decreasing daily maximum temperature and increasing nighttime minimum temperature. A reduction in DTR soil generated on average a two-fold increase in soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC), a 42% increase in soil CO 2 efflux and a 16% reduction in soil NO 3 - -N availability; soil available NH 4 + -N was reduced by 18% in the third year only. Reductions in DTR soil increased soil moisture up to 15% a few days after a substantial rainfall. Increased soil moisture contributed to higher CO 2 efflux, but not MBC, which was significantly correlated with DTR soil . Net photosynthetic rates at saturating light ( A sat ) in Larrea tridentata was not affected by reductions in DTR soil over the 3-year period. Arid ecosystems may become greater sources of C to the atmosphere with reduced DTR soil , resulting in a positive feedback to rising global temperatures, if increased C loss is not eventually balanced by increased C uptake. Ultimately, ecosystem models of N and C fluxes will need to account for these temperature-driven processes.

Description: European forests are an important carbon sink, yet the relative contributions to this sink of climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]), nitrogen deposition and forest management are under debate. We attributed the European carbon sink in forests using ORCHIDEE-FM, a process-based vegetation model that differs from earlier versions of ORCHIDEE by its explicit representation of stand growth and idealized forest management. The model was applied on a grid across Europe to simulate changes in the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of forests with and without changes in climate, [CO2] and age structure, the three drivers represented in ORCHIDEE-FM. The model simulates carbon stocks and volume increment that are comparable – RMSE of 2 m3 ha-1 yr-1 and 1.7 kgC m-2 respectively – with inventory-derived estimates at country level for 20 European countries. Our simulations estimate a mean European forest NEP of 175 ± 52 gC m-2 yr-1 in the 1990s. The model simulation that is most consistent with inventory records provides an upwards trend of forest NEP of 1 ± 0.5 gC m-2 yr-2 between 1950 and 2000 across the EU 25. Further, the method used for reconstructing past age structure was found to dominate its contribution to temporal trends in NEP. The potentially large fertilizing effect of nitrogen deposition cannot be told apart as the model does not explicitly simulate the nitrogen cycle. Among the three drivers that were considered in this study, the fertilizing effect of increasing [CO2] explains about 61% of the simulated trend, against 26% to changes in climate, and 13% only to changes in forest age structure. The major role of [CO2] at the continental scale is due to its homogeneous impact on NPP. At the local scale, however, changes in climate and forest age structure often dominate trends in NEP by affecting NPP and heterotrophic respiration.

Description: Temporal trends of N 2 O fluxes across the soil-atmosphere interface were determined using continuous flux chamber measurements over an entire growing season of a subsurface aerating macrophyte ( P halaris arundinacea ) in a non-managed Danish wetland. Observed N 2 O fluxes were linked to changes in subsurface N 2 O and O 2 concentrations, water level, light intensity as well as mineral-N availability. Weekly concentration profiles showed that seasonal variations in N 2 O concentrations were directly linked to the position of the WL and O 2 availability at the capillary fringe above the WL. N 2 O flux measurements showed surprisingly high temporal variability with marked changes in fluxes and shifts in flux directions from net source to net sink within hours associated with changing light conditions. Systematic diurnal shifts between net N 2 O emission during day time and deposition during night time were observed when max subsurface N 2 O concentrations were located below the root zone. Correlation (p〈0.001) between diurnal variations in O 2 concentrations and incoming PAR radiation highlighted the importance of plant-driven subsoil aeration of thse root zone and the associated controls on coupled nitrification/denitrification. Therefore, P . arundinacea played an important role in facilitating N 2 O transport from the root zone to the atmosphere and exclusion of the aboveground biomass in flux chamber measurements may lead to significant underestimations on net ecosystem N 2 O emissions. Complex interactions between seasonal changes in O 2 and mineral N-availability following near-surface WL fluctuations in combination with plant mediated gas transport by P . arundinacea controlled the subsurface N 2 O concentrations and gas transport mechanisms responsible for N 2 O fluxes across the soil-atmosphere interface. Results demonstrate the necessity for addressing this high temporal variability and potential plant transport of N 2 O in future studies of net N 2 O exchange across the soil-atmosphere interface

Description: Although the effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on species composition are relatively well known, the roles of the different forms of nitrogen, in particular gaseous ammonia (NH 3 ), have not been tested in the field. Since 2002, we have manipulated the form of N deposition to an ombrotrophic bog, Whim, on deep peat in southern Scotland, with low ambient N (wet + dry = 8 kg N ha −1 y −1 ) and S (4 kg S ha −1 y −1 ) deposition. A gradient of ammonia (NH 3 , dry N), from 70 kg N ha −1 y −1 down to background, 3-4 kg N ha −1 y −1 was generated by free air release. Wet ammonium (NH 4 + , wet N) was provided to replicate plots in a fine rainwater spray (NH 4 Cl at +8, +24, +56 kg N ha −1 y −1 ). Automated treatments are coupled to meteorological conditions, in a globally unique, field experiment. Ammonia concentrations were converted to NH 3 -N deposition (kg N ha −1 ) using a site / vegetation specific parameterization. Within 3 years, exposure to relatively modest deposition of NH 3 , 20-56 kg NH 3 -N ha −1 y −1 led to dramatic reductions in species cover, with almost total loss of Calluna vulgaris , Sphagnum capillifolium and Cladonia portentosa . These effects appear to result from direct foliar uptake and interaction with abiotic and biotic stresses, rather than via effects on the soil. Additional wet N by contrast, significantly increased Calluna cover after 5 years at the 56 kg N dose, but reduced cover of Sphagnum and Cladonia . Cover reductions caused by wet N were significantly different from and much smaller than those caused by equivalent dry N doses. The effects of gaseous NH 3 described here, highlight the potential for ammonia to destroy acid heathland and peat bog ecosystems. Separating the effects of gaseous ammonia and wet ammonium deposition, for a peat bog, have significant implications for regulatory bodies and conservation agencies.

Description: Many factors contribute to the non-random processes of extinctions and invasions that are changing the structure of ecological communities worldwide. These factors include the attributes of the species, their abiotic environment, and the interactions and feedbacks between them. The relative importance of these factors has been difficult to quantify. We used nested subset theory and a novel permutation-based extension of gradient analysis to disentangle the direct and indirect pathways by which these factors affect the metacommunity structure of freshwater fishes inhabiting the streams tributary to the San Francisco Bay. Our analyses provide quantitative measures of how species and stream attributes may influence extinction vulnerability and invasion risk, highlight the need for considering the multiple interacting drivers of community change concurrently, and indicate that the ongoing disassembly and assembly of Bay Area freshwater fish communities are not fully symmetric processes. Fish communities are being taken apart and put back together in only partially analogous trajectories of extinction and invasion for which no single explanatory hypothesis is sufficient. Our study thereby contributes to the forecasting of continued community change and its effects on the functioning of freshwater ecosystems.

Description: Climate change is likely to have major impacts on the distribution of planted and natural forests. Here we demonstrate how a process-based niche model (CLIMEX) can be extended to project globally the potential habitat suitable for Douglas-fir. Within this distribution we use CLIMEX to predict abundance of the pathogen P haeocryptopus gaeumannii and severity of its associated foliage disease, Swiss needle cast. The distribution and severity of the disease, which can strongly reduce growth rate of Douglas-fir, is closely correlated with seasonal temperatures and precipitation. This model is used to project how climate change during the 2080s may alter the area suitable for Douglas-fir plantations within New Zealand. The climate change scenarios used indicate that the land area suitable for Douglas-fir production in the North Island will be reduced markedly from near 100% under current climate to 36 – 64% of the total land area by 2080's. Within areas shown to be suitable for the host in the North Island, four of the six climate change scenarios predict substantial increases in disease severity that will make these regions at best marginal for Douglas-fir by the 2080's. In contrast, most regions in the South Island are projected to sustain relatively low levels of disease, and remain suitable for Douglas-fir under climate change over the course of this century.

Description: Soils are both a major source and sink of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), but the proportion of soil N 2 O production released to the atmosphere (termed the N 2 O yield) is poorly constrained due to the difficulty in measuring gross N 2 O production. The quantification of gross N 2 O fluxes would greatly improve our ability to predict N 2 O dynamics across the soil-atmosphere interface. We report a new approach, the 15 N 2 O pool dilution technique, to measure rates of gross N 2 O production and consumption under laboratory and field conditions. In the lab, gross N 2 O production and consumption compared well between the 15 N 2 O pool dilution and acetylene inhibition methods whereas the 15 NO 3 - tracer method measured significantly higher rates. In the field, N 2 O emissions were not significantly affected by increasing chamber headspace concentrations up to 100 ppb 15 N 2 O. The pool dilution model estimates of 14 N 2 O and 15 N 2 O concentrations as well as net N 2 O fluxes fit observed data very well, suggesting that the technique yielded robust estimates of gross N 2 O production. Estimated gross N 2 O consumption rates were underestimated relative to rates calculated as the difference between gross and net N 2 O production rates, possibly due to heterogeneous and/or inadequate tracer diffusion to deeper layers in the soil profile. Gross N 2 O production rates were high, averaging 8.4 ± 3.2 mg N m −2 d −1 , and were most strongly correlated to mineral nitrogen concentrations and denitrifying enzyme activity (R 2 = 0.73). Gross N 2 O production rates varied spatially, with the highest rates in soils with the best drainage and the highest mineral N availability. Estimated and calculated N 2 O consumption rates constrained the average N 2 O yield from 0.70 to 0.84. Our results demonstrate that the 15 N 2 O pool dilution technique can provide well-constrained estimates of N 2 O yields and field rates of gross N 2 O production correlated to soil characteristics, improving our understanding of terrestrial N 2 O dynamics.

Description: Over the next century, changes in the global climate are expected to have major consequences for plant communities, possibly including the exacerbation of species invasions. We evaluated this possibility in the grass flora of California, which is economically and ecologically important and heavily invaded. We used a novel, trait-based approach involving two components: identifying differences in trait composition between native and exotic components of the grass flora and evaluating contemporary trait-climate relationships across the state. The combination of trait-climate relationships and trait differences between groups allows us to predict changes in the exotic-native balance under climate change scenarios. Exotic species are more likely to be annual, taller, with larger leaves, larger seeds, higher specific leaf area and higher leaf N percentage than native species. Across the state, all of these traits are associated with regions with higher temperature. Therefore, we predict that increasing temperatures will favor trait states that tend to be possessed by exotic species, increasing the dominance of exotic species. This prediction is corroborated by the current distribution of exotic species richness relative to native richness in California; warmer areas contain higher proportions of exotic species. This pattern was very well captured by a simple model that predicts invasion severity given only the trait-climate relationship for native species and trait differences between native and exotic species. This study provides some of the first evidence for an important interaction between climate change and species invasions across very broad geographic and taxonomic scales.

Description: Substantial uncertainty surrounds how forest ecosystems will respond to the simultaneous impacts of multiple global change drivers. Long-term forest dynamics are sensitive to changes in tree mortality rates, however we lack an understanding of the relative importance of the factors that affect tree mortality across different spatial and temporal scales. We used the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis database to evaluate the drivers of tree mortality for eastern temperate forest at the individual-level across spatial scales from tree to landscape to region. We investigated thirteen covariates in four categories: climate, air pollutants, topography, and stand characteristics. Overall, we found that tree mortality was most sensitive to stand characteristics and air pollutants. Different functional groups also varied considerably in their sensitivity to environmental drivers. This research highlights the importance of considering the interactions among multiple global change agents in shaping forest ecosystems.

Description: It is not clear whether the consistent positive effect of elevated CO 2 on soil respiration (soil carbon flux, SCF) results from increased plant and microbial activity due to (1) greater C availability through CO 2 -induced increases in C inputs or (2) enhanced soil moisture via CO 2 -induced declines in stomatal conductance and plant water use. Global changes such as biodiversity loss or nitrogen (N) deposition may also affect these drivers, interacting with CO 2 to affect SCF. To determine the effects of these factors on SCF and elucidate the mechanism(s) behind the effect of elevated CO 2 on SCF, we measured SCF and soil moisture throughout a growing season in the Biodiversity, CO 2 , and N (BioCON) experiment. Increasing diversity and N caused small declines in soil moisture. Diversity had inconsistent small effects on SCF through its effects on abiotic conditions, while N had a small positive effect that was unrelated to soil moisture. Elevated CO 2 had large consistent effects, increasing soil moisture by 26% and SCF by 45%. However, CO 2 -induced changes in soil moisture were weak drivers of SCF: CO 2 effects on SCF and soil moisture were uncorrelated, CO 2 effect size did not change with soil moisture, within-day CO 2 effects via soil moisture were neutral or weakly negative, and the estimated effect of increased C availability was 14 times larger than that of increased soil moisture. Combined with previous BioCON results indicating elevated CO 2 increases C availability to plants and microbes, our results suggest increased SCF is driven by CO 2 -induced increases in substrate availability. Our results provide further support for increased rates of belowground C cycling at elevated CO 2 and evidence that, unlike the response of productivity to elevated CO 2 in BioCON, the response of SCF is not strongly N limited. Thus, N limited grasslands are unlikely to act as a C sink under elevated CO 2 .

Description: Quantification of rhizodeposition (root exudates and root turnover) represents a major challenge for understanding the links between above-ground assimilation and below-ground anoxic decomposition of organic carbon in rice paddy ecosystems. Free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) fumigating depleted 13 CO 2 in a rice paddy resulted in a smaller 13 C/ 12 C ratio in plant assimilated carbon, providing a unique measure by which we partitioned the sources of decomposed gases (CO 2 and CH 4 ) into current-season photosynthates (new C) and soil organic matter (old C). Additionally, we imposed a soil warming treatment nested within the CO 2 treatments to assess whether the carbon source was sensitive to warming. Compared with the ambient CO 2 treatment, the FACE treatment decreased the 13 C/ 12 C ratio not only in the rice-plant carbon but also in the soil CO 2 and CH 4 . The estimated new C contribution to dissolved CO 2 was minor (~20%) at the tillering stage, increased with rice growth and was about 50% from the panicle formation stage onwards. For CH4, the contribution of new C was greater than for heterotrophic CO2 production; approximately 40–60% of season-total CH 4 production originated from new C with a tendency toward even larger new C contribution with soil warming, presumably because enhanced root decay provided substrates for greater CH 4 production. The results suggest a fast and close coupling between photosynthesis and anoxic decomposition in soil, and further indicate a positive feedback of global warming by enhanced CH 4 emission through greater rhizodeposition.

Description: ABSTRACT Daily minimum temperature (T min ) has increased faster than daily maximum temperature (T max ) in many parts of the world, leading to decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Projections suggest these trends are likely to continue in many regions, particularly northern latitudes and in arid regions. Despite wide speculation that asymmetric warming has different impacts on plant and ecosystem production than equal-night-and-day warming, there has been little direct comparison of these scenarios. Reduced DTR has also been widely misinterpreted as a result of night-only warming, when in fact T min occurs near dawn, indicating higher morning as well as night temperatures. We report on the first experiment to examine ecosystem-scale impacts of faster increases in T min than T max, using precise temperature controls to create realistic diurnal temperature profiles with gradual day-night temperature transitions and elevated early morning as well as night temperatures. Studying a constructed grassland ecosystem containing species native to Oregon, USA, we found the ecosystem lost more carbon at elevated than ambient temperatures, but was unaffected by the 3°C difference in DTR between symmetric warming (constantly ambient +3.5°C) and asymmetric warming (dawn T min =ambient +5°C, afternoon T max = ambient +2°C). Reducing DTR had no apparent effect on photosynthesis, likely because temperatures were most different in the morning and late afternoon when light was low. Respiration was also similar in both warming treatments, because respiration temperature sensitivity was not sufficient to respond to the limited temperature differences between asymmetric and symmetric warming. We concluded that changes in daily mean temperatures, rather than changes in T min /T max , were sufficient for predicting ecosystem carbon fluxes in this reconstructed Mediterranean grassland system.

Description: Marine organisms are simultaneously exposed to anthropogenic stressors with likely interactive effects, including synergisms in which the combined effects of multiple stressors are greater than the sum of individual effects. Early life stages of marine organisms are potentially vulnerable to the stressors associated with global change, but identifying general patterns across studies, species and response variables is challenging. This review represents the first meta-analysis of multi-stressor studies to target early marine life stages (embryo to larvae), particularly between temperature, salinity and pH as these are the best studied. Knowledge gaps in research on multiple abiotic stressors and early life stages are also identified. The meta-analysis yielded several key results: 1) Synergistic interactions (65% of individual tests) are more common than additive (17%) or antagonistic (17%) interactions. 2) Larvae are generally more vulnerable than embryos to thermal and pH stress. 3) Survival is more likely than sub-lethal responses to be affected by thermal, salinity, and pH stress. 4) Interaction types vary among stressors, ontogenetic stages, and biological responses, but they are more consistent among phyla. 5) Ocean acidification is a greater stressor for calcifying than non-calcifying larvae. Although more ecologically realistic than single-factor studies, multifactorial studies may still oversimplify complex systems, and so meta-analyses of the data from them must be cautiously interpreted with regard to extrapolation to field conditions. Nonetheless our results identify taxa with early life stages that may be particularly vulnerable (e.g. molluscs, echinoderms) or robust (e.g. arthropods, cnidarians) to abiotic stress. We provide a list of recommendations for future multiple stressor studies, particularly those focussed on early marine life stages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models.

Description: Urban green spaces provide ecosystem services to city residents, but their management is hindered by a poor understanding of their ecology. We examined a novel ecosystem service relevant to urban public health and esthetics: the consumption of littered food waste by arthropods. Theory and data from natural systems suggest that the magnitude and resilience of this service should increase with biological diversity. We measured food removal by presenting known quantities of cookies, potato chips, and hot dogs in street medians (24 sites) and parks (21 sites) in New York City, USA. At the same sites, we assessed ground-arthropod diversity and abiotic conditions, including history of flooding during Hurricane Sandy 7 months prior to the study. Arthropod diversity was greater in parks (on average 11 hexapod families and 4.7 ant species per site), than in medians (nine hexapod families and 2.7 ant species per site). However, counter to our diversity-based prediction, arthropods in medians removed 2–3 times more food per day than did those in parks. We detected no effect of flooding (at 19 sites) on this service. Instead, greater food removal was associated with the presence of the introduced pavement ant ( Tetramorium sp. E) and with hotter, drier conditions that may have increased arthropod metabolism. When vertebrates also had access to food, more was removed, indicating that arthropods and vertebrates compete for littered food. We estimate that arthropods alone could remove 4–6.5 kg of food per year in a single street median, reducing its availability to less desirable fauna such as rats. Our results suggest that species identity and habitat may be more relevant than diversity for predicting urban ecosystem services. Even small green spaces such as street medians provide ecosystem services that may complement those of larger habitat patches across the urban landscape.

Description: Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ , and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2–3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.

Description: Recent studies indicate that lianas are increasing in size and abundance relative to trees in neotropical forests. As a result, forest dynamics and carbon balance may be altered through liana-induced suppression of tree growth and increases in tree mortality. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 is hypothesized to be responsible for the increase in neotropical lianas, yet no study has directly compared the relative response of tropical lianas and trees to elevated CO 2 . We explicitly tested whether tropical lianas had a larger response to elevated CO 2 than co-occurring tropical trees, and whether seasonal drought alters the response of either growth form. In two experiments conducted in central Panama, one spanning both wet and dry seasons and one restricted to the dry season, we grew liana (n=12) and tree (n=10) species in open-top growth chambers maintained at ambient or twice-ambient CO 2 levels. Seedlings of eight individuals (four lianas, four trees) were grown in the ground in each chamber for at least three months during each season. We found that both liana and tree seedlings had a significant and positive response to elevated CO 2 (in biomass, leaf area, leaf mass per area, and photosynthesis), but that the relative response to elevated CO 2 for all variables was not significantly greater for lianas than trees regardless of the season. The lack of differences in the relative response between growth forms does not support the hypothesis that elevated CO 2 is responsible for increasing liana size and abundance across the neotropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The long-term effects of conservation management practices on greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical/subtropical croplands remain to be uncertain. Using both manual and automatic sampling chambers, we measured N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes at a long-term experimental site (1968-present) in Queensland, Australia from 2006 to 2009. Annual net greenhouse gas fluxes (NGGF) were calculated from the 3-year mean N 2 O and CH 4 fluxes and the long-term soil organic carbon changes. N 2 O emissions exhibited clear daily, seasonal and interannual variations, highlighting the importance of whole-year measurement over multiple years for obtaining temporally representative annual emissions. Averaged over 3 years, annual N 2 O emissions from the unfertilised and fertilised soils (90 kg N ha −1  yr −1 as urea) amounted to 138 g N ha −1 and 902 g N ha −1 , respectively. The average annual N 2 O emissions from the fertilised soil were 388 g N ha −1 lower under no-till (NT) than under conventional tillage (CT) and 259 g N ha −1 higher under stubble retention (SR) than under stubble burning (SB). Annual N 2 O emissions from the unfertilised soil were similar between the contrasting tillage and stubble management practices. The average emission factors of fertiliser N were 0.91%, 1.20%, 0.52% and 0.77% for the CT-SB, CT-SR, NT-SB and NT-SR treatments, respectively. Annual CH 4 fluxes from the soil were very small (−0.2 to 0.3 kg CH 4  ha −1  yr −1 ) with no significant difference between treatments. The NGGF were 277–350 kg CO 2 -e ha −1  yr −1 for the unfertilised treatments and 401–710 kg CO 2 -e ha −1  yr −1 for the fertilised treatments. Among the fertilised treatments, N 2 O emissions accounted for 52–97% of NGGF and NT-SR resulted in the lowest NGGF (401 kg CO 2 -e ha −1  yr −1 or 140 kg CO 2 -e t −1 grain). Therefore, NT-SR with improved N fertiliser management practices was considered the most promising management regime for simultaneously achieving maximal yield and minimal NGGF.

Description: Understanding how net ecosystem exchange (NEE) changes with temperature is central to the debate on climate change-carbon cycle feedbacks, but still remains unclear. Here we used eddy covariance measurements of NEE from 20 FLUXNET sites (203 site-years of data) in mid- and high latitude forests to investigate the temperature response of NEE. Years were divided into two half thermal years (increasing temperature in spring and decreasing temperature in autumn) using the maximum daily mean temperature. We observed a parabolic-like pattern of NEE in response to temperature change in both the spring and autumn half thermal years. However, at similar temperatures, NEE was considerably depressed during the decreasing temperature season as compared to the increasing temperature season, inducing a counter-clockwise hysteresis pattern in the NEE - temperature relation at most sites. The magnitude of this hysteresis was attributable mostly (68%) to gross primary production (GPP) differences but little (8%) to ecosystem respiration (ER) differences between the two half thermal years. The main environmental factors contributing to the hysteresis responses of NEE and GPP were daily accumulated radiation. Soil water content (SWC) also contributed to the hysteresis response of GPP but only at some sites. Shorter day length, lower light intensity, lower SWC and reduced photosynthetic capacity may all have contributed to the depressed GPP and net carbon uptake during the decreasing temperature seasons. The resultant hysteresis loop is an important indicator of the existence of limiting factors. As such, the role of radiation, LAI and SWC should be considered when modeling the dynamics of carbon cycling in response to temperature change.

Description: We evaluated above and below ground ecosystem changes in a 16 year, combined fertilization and warming experiment in a High Arctic tundra deciduous shrub heath (Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island, NU, Canada). Soil emissions of the three key greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) were measured in mid July 2009 using soil respiration chambers attached to a FTIR system. Soil chemical and biochemical properties including Q 10 values for CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O, Bacteria and Archaea assemblage composition, and the diversity and prevalence of key nitrogen cycling genes including bacterial amoA , crenarchaeal amoA , and nosZ were measured. Warming and fertilization caused strong increases in plant community cover and height but had limited effects on greenhouse gas fluxes and no substantial effect on soil chemistry or biochemistry. Similarly, there was a surprising lack of directional shifts in the soil microbial community as a whole or any change at all in microbial functional groups associated with CH 4 consumption or N 2 O cycling in any treatment. Thus, it appears that while warming and increased nutrient availability have strongly affected the plant community over the last 16 years, the below ground ecosystem has not yet responded. This resistance of the soil ecosystem has resulted in limited changes in greenhouse gas fluxes in response to the experimental treatments.

Description: Global climate change affects ecosystems via several trophic levels. We investigated changes in the timing of breeding in the willow tit ( Poecile montanus ) and timing of its caterpillar food resource in relation to warming springs in a boreal forest. We used generalized linear mixed effect models to study the importance of synchrony between the timing of breeding in willow tits and the caterpillar food availability on the breeding success, measured as nestling survival rate and mean nestling weight. Both the timing of breeding and the timing of the caterpillar peak advanced during the last decades, and were well explained by spring temperatures. Unlike in most passerine populations studied, synchrony has improved with rising spring temperatures. However, it had only a modest although statistically significant positive influence on breeding success. Spring temperatures do not seem to be used as cues for the timing of caterpillar food availability by willow tits. We conclude that responses to climatic warming seem to be population, species and habitat specific, necessitating research in a wide range of taxa in different climatic zones.

Description: Although atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climate changes are both recognized as major components of global change, their interaction at ecosystem level is less well understood. A stratified resampling approach was used to investigate the potential impact of changing levels of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change on species composition of nutrient-poor acid grasslands within the French Atlantic Domain (FAD). The study was based on a comparison, over a period of 25 years, of 162 past and present vegetation records assigned to the species-rich Nardus grasslands and distributed in regional community types (CTs). Similarly, the characterisation of N deposition and climate was stratified according to (1) past (1980-1990) and present (1995-2005) periods; (2) FAD and CT scales. Despite the relatively short time span between sampling periods, significant N deposition and climate changes were detected as well as vegetation changes. Correspondence analysis showed that the relative importance of N deposition and climate in explaining vegetation changes depended on the spatial scale of investigation (FAD vs . local CTs) and the CT. At the FAD scale, the increase of annual mean temperature and decrease of water availability were clearly related to changes in floristic composition. At the local scale, the most stable CT experienced no significant climate change and a stable load of N deposition whereas the CTs characterised by the largest floristic changes were associated with dramatic climate changes and moderate loads in both oxidized and reduced N deposition. Despite the narrow gradient of deposition investigated, N deposition was related to significant grassland community changes, depending on the region i.e . climate context and on whether N deposition was in the oxidized or reduced form. Our results suggest that N deposition drives grassland composition at the local scale, in interaction with climate, while climate changes remain the predominant driver at the FAD scale.

Description: During the last decades human activity has altered the natural cycle of nitrogen and phosphorus on a global scale, producing significant emissions to waters. In Europe, the amount of nutrients discharged from rivers to coastal waters as well as the effects of mitigation measures in place are known only partially, with no consistent temporal and spatial cover. In this study we quantify the loads and concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus discharged in the European seas over the period 1985-2005, and we discuss their impact on coastal ecosystems. To support our analysis, a catchment database covering the whole of Europe was developed together with data layers of nutrients diffuse and point sources, and the statistical model GREEN was used to estimate the annual loads of nitrogen and phosphorus discharged in all European seas. The results of this study show that during the last 20 years, Europe has discharged 4.1-4.8 Tg/yr of nitrogen and 0.2-0.3 Tg/yr of phosphorus to its coastal waters. We show that beside the North Sea and part of the Baltic Sea, annual nutrient exports have not changed significantly, in spite of the implementation of measures to reduce nutrient sources, and that the N:P ratio has increased steadily, especially in the North, Mediterranean and Atlantic seas. The response of river basins to changes in inputs was not linear, but influenced by climatic variations and nutrients previously accumulated in soils and aquifers. An analysis of the effects of European environmental policies shows that measures to reduce phosphorus were more successful that those tackling nitrogen and that policies aimed at point sources were more effective or more effectively implemented than those controlling pollution from diffuse sources. The increase of the N:P ratio could fuel eutrophication in N-limited coastal ecosystems, reducing biodiversity and the ecosystem's resilience to future additional anthropogenic stress, such as climate change.

Description: North American fire-adapted forests are experiencing changes in fire-frequency and climate. These novel conditions may alter post-wildfire responses of fire-adapted trees that survive fires, a topic that has received little attention. Historical, frequent, low intensity wildfire in many fire-adapted forests is generally thought to have a positive effect on the growth and vigor of trees that survive fires. Whether such positive effects can persist under current and future climate conditions is not known. Here, we evaluate long term responses to recurrent 20 th century fires in ponderosa pine, a fire-adapted tree species, in unlogged forests in north central Idaho. We also examine short-term responses to individual 20 th century fires and evaluate whether these responses have changed over time and whether potential variability relates to climate variables and time since last fire. Growth responses were assessed by comparing tree-ring measurements from trees in stands burned repeatedly during the 20 th century at roughly the historical fire-frequency with trees in paired control stands that had not burned for at least 70 years. Contrary to expectations, only one site showed significant increases in long-term growth responses in burned stands compared to control stands. Short-term responses showed a trend of increasing negative effects of wildfire (reduced diameter growth in the burned stand compared to the control stand) in recent years that had drier winters and springs. There was no effect of time since the previous fire on growth responses to fire. The possible relationship of novel climate conditions with negative tree growth responses in trees that survive fire are discussed. A trend of negative growth responses to wildfire in old-growth forests could have important ramifications for forest productivity and carbon-balance under future climate scenarios.

Description: Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are predicted to have ranges extend beyond adults at leading edges and the opposite relationship at trailing edges. Large-scale forest inventory data provides an opportunity to compare present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, we directly compared seedling and tree 5 th and 95 th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43,334 plots across the eastern U.S. We further compared these latitudes with 20 th century temperature and precipitation change and functional traits, including seed size and seed spread rate. Results suggest that 58.7% of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction, rather than expansion, at both northern and southern boundaries. Fewer species show a pattern consistent with a northward shift (20.7%) and fewer still with a southward shift (16.3%). Only 4.3% are consistent with expansion at both range limits. When compared with the 20 th century climate changes that have occurred at the range boundaries themselves, there is no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics. The fact that the majority of seedling extreme latitudes are less than those for adult trees may emphasize the lack of evidence for climate-mediated migration, and should increase concerns for the risks posed by climate change.

Description: Coccolithophores are unicellular phytoplankton that produce calcium carbonate coccoliths as an exoskeleton. Emiliania huxleyi , the most abundant coccolithophore in the world's ocean, plays a major role in the global carbon cycle by regulating the exchange of CO 2 across the ocean-atmosphere interface through photosynthesis and calcium carbonate precipitation. As CO 2 concentration is rising in the atmosphere, the ocean is acidifying and ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentration of future ocean water is expected to rise. The latter is attributed to increasing anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition, increasing rates of cyanobacterial N 2 fixation due to warmer and more stratified oceans, and decreased rates of nitrification due to ocean acidification. Thus future global climate change will cause oceanic phytoplankton to experience changes in multiple environmental parameters including CO 2 , pH, temperature and nitrogen source. This study reports on the combined effect of elevated p CO 2 and increased NH 4 + to nitrate (NO 3 - ) ratio (NH 4 + /NO 3 - ) on E. huxleyi, maintained in continuous cultures for more than 200 generations under two p CO 2 levels and two different N sources. Here we show that NH 4 + assimilation under N-replete conditions depresses calcification at both low and high p CO 2 , alters coccolith morphology, and increases primary production. We observed that N source and p CO 2 synergistically drive growth rates, cell size and the ratio of inorganic to organic carbon. These responses to N source suggest that, compared to increasing CO 2 alone, a greater disruption of the organic carbon pump could be expected in response to the combined effect of increased NH 4 + /NO 3 - ratio and CO 2 level in the future acidified ocean. Additional experiments conducted under lower nutrient conditions are needed prior to extrapolating our findings to the global oceans. Nonetheless, our results emphasize the need to assess combined effects of multiple environmental parameters on phytoplankton biology in order to develop accurate predictions of phytoplankton responses to ocean acidification.

Description: A change in land use from agriculture to forest generally increases soil acidity. However, it remains unclear to what extent plant traits can enhance or mitigate soil acidification caused by atmospheric deposition. Soil acidification is detrimental for the survival of many species. An in-depth understanding of tree species-specific effects on soil acidification is crucial for soil protection, particularly in view of the predicted global increases in acidifying nitrogen (N) deposition. Here, we report soil acidification rates in a chronosequence of broadleaved deciduous forests planted on former arable land in Belgium. This region receives one of the highest loads of potentially acidifying atmospheric deposition in Europe, which allowed us to study a ‘worst case scenario’. We show that less than four decades of forest development caused significant soil acidification. Atmospheric deposition undoubtedly and unequivocally drives post-agricultural forests towards more acidic conditions, but the rate of soil acidification is also determined by the tree species-specific leaf litter quality and litter decomposition rates. We propose that the intrinsic differences in leaf litter quality among tree species create fundamentally different nutrient cycles within the ecosystem, both directly through the chemical composition of the litter and indirectly through its effects on the size and composition of earthworm communities. Poor leaf litter quality contributes to the absence of a burrowing earthworm community, which retards leaf litter decomposition and, consequently, results in forest-floor build-up and soil acidification. Also nutrient uptake and N 2 fixation are causing soil acidification, but were found to be less important. Our results highlight the fact that tree species-specific traits significantly influence the magnitude of human pollution-induced soil acidification.

Description: Little is known about the impact of changing temperature regimes on composition and diversity of cryptogam communities in the Arctic and Subarctic, despite the well-known importance of lichens and bryophytes to the functioning and climate feedbacks of northern ecosystems. We investigated changes in diversity and abundance of lichens and bryophytes within long-term (9 -16 yrs) warming experiments and along natural climatic gradients, ranging from Swedish subarctic birch forest and subarctic/subalpine tundra to Alaskan arctic tussock tundra. In both Sweden and Alaska, lichen diversity responded negatively to experimental warming (with the exception of a birch forest) and to higher temperatures along climatic gradients. Bryophytes were less sensitive to experimental warming than lichens, but depending on the length of the gradient, bryophyte diversity decreased both with increasing temperatures and at extremely low temperatures. Among bryophytes, Sphagnum mosses were particularly resistant to experimental warming in terms of both abundance and diversity. Temperature, on both continents, was the main driver of species composition within experiments and along gradients, with the exception of the Swedish subarctic birch forest where amount of litter constituted the best explanatory variable. In a warming experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra in Alaska, temperature together with soil ammonium availability were the most important factors influencing species composition. Overall, dwarf shrub abundance (deciduous and evergreen) was positively related to warming but so were the bryophytes Sphagnum girgensohnii , Hylocomium splendens and Pleurozium schreberi ; the majority of other cryptogams showed a negative relationship to warming. This unique combination of intercontinental comparison, natural gradient studies and experimental studies shows that cryptogam diversity and abundance, especially within lichens, is likely to decrease under arctic climate warming. Given the many ecosystem processes affected by cryptogams in high latitudes (e.g. carbon sequestration, N 2 -fixation, trophic interactions), these changes will have important feedback consequences for ecosystem functions and climate.

Description: Forest disturbances are major sources of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and therefore impact global climate. Biogeophysical attributes, such as surface albedo (reflectivity), further control the climate-regulating properties of forests. Using both tower-based and remotely-sensed data sets, we show that natural disturbances from wildfire, beetle outbreaks, and hurricane wind throw can significantly alter surface albedo, and the associated radiative forcing either offsets or enhances the CO 2 forcing caused by reducing ecosystem carbon sequestration over multiple years. In the examined cases, the radiative forcing from albedo change is on the same order of magnitude as the CO 2 forcing. The net radiative forcing resulting from these two factors leads to a local heating effect in a hurricane-damaged mangrove forest in the sub-tropics, and a cooling effect following wildfire and mountain pine beetle attack in boreal forests with winter snow. Although natural forest disturbances currently represent less than half of gross forest cover loss, that area will likely increase in the future under climate change, making it imperative to represent these processes accurately in global climate models.

Description: A method was developed to estimate carbon consumed during wildland fires in interior Alaska based on medium-spatial scale data (60 m cell size) generated on a daily basis. Carbon consumption estimates were developed for 41 fire events in the large fire year of 2004 and 34 fire events from the small fire years of 2006 to 2008. Total carbon consumed during the large fire year (2.72 x 10 6 ha burned) was 64.7 Tg C, and the average carbon consumption during the small fire years (0.09 x 10 6 ha burned) was 1.3 Tg C. Uncertainties for the annual carbon emissions ranged from 13 to 21%. Carbon consumed from burning of black spruce forests represented 76% of the total during large fire years and 57% during small fire years. This was the result of the widespread distribution of black spruce forests across the landscape and the deep burning of the surface organic layers common to these ecosystems. Average carbon consumed was 3.01 kg m −2 during the large fire year and 1.69 kg m −2 during the small fire years. Most of the carbon consumption was from burning of ground layer fuels (85% in the large fire year and 78% in small fire years). Most of the difference in average carbon consumption between large and small fire years was in the consumption of ground layer fuels (2.60 vs. 1.31 kg m −2 during large and small fire years, respectively). There was great variation in average fuel consumption between individual fire events (0.56 to 5.06 kg m −2 ) controlled by variations in fuel types and topography, timing of the fires during the fire season, and variations in fuel moisture at the time of burning.

Description: Because of the long residence time of carbon in forests and soils, the current state and future behavior of the terrestrial biosphere is influenced by past variability in climate and anthropogenic land use. Over the last half-millennium, European terrestrial ecosystems were affected by the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, rising CO 2 concentrations, and human induced deforestation and land abandonment. To quantify these effects, we used the LPJ dynamic vegetation model driven by reconstructed climate, land use, and CO 2 concentrations to evaluate the carbon cycle of Europe. Though land use change was the major control on the carbon inventory of Europe over the last 500 years, the current state of the terrestrial biosphere is largely controlled by land use change during the past century. Between 1500 and 2000, climate variability could have led to temporary sequestration events of up to 3 Pg, while increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations during the 20 th century led to an increase in carbon storage of up to 15 Pg in our simulations. Anthropogenic land use could have caused between 25 Pg of carbon emissions and 5 Pg of uptake over the same time period, depending on the historical and spatial pattern of past land use and the timing of the reversal from deforestation to afforestation during the last two centuries. None of the currently existing anthropogenic land use change datasets adequately capture the timing of the forest transition in most European countries as recorded in historical observations. Despite considerable uncertainty, our scenarios indicate that with limited management, extant European forests have the potential to absorb between 5 and 12 Pg of carbon at the present day.

Description: Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern U.S. can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from thirty-nine large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20 th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum , declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

Description: Ecosystem respiration is a primary component of the carbon cycle and understanding the mechanisms that determine its temperature dependence will be important for predicting how rates of carbon sequestration might respond to global warming. We used a rare model system, comprising a network of geothermally heated streams ranging in temperature from 5 to 25 °C, to explore the nature of the relationship between respiration and temperature. Using this ‘natural experiment’, we tested whether the natal thermal regime of stream communities influenced the temperature dependence of respiration in the absence of other potentially confounding variables. An empirical survey of 13 streams across the thermal gradient revealed that the temperature dependence of whole-stream respiration was equivalent to the average activation energy of the respiratory complex (0.6 – 0.7 eV). This observation was also consistent for in-situ benthic respiration. Laboratory experiments, incubating biofilms from four streams across the thermal gradient at a range of temperatures, revealed that the activation energy and Q 10 of respiration was remarkably consistent across streams, despite marked differences in their thermal history and significant turnover in species composition. Furthermore, absolute rates of respiration at standardised temperature were also unrelated to ambient stream temperature, but strongly reflected differences in biofilm biomass. Together, our results suggest that the core biochemistry, which drives the kinetics of oxidative respiratory metabolism may be well conserved among diverse taxa and environments, and that the intrinsic sensitivity of respiration to temperature is not influenced by ambient environmental temperature (and thermal history).

Description: Plant growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 and O 3 vary among genotypes and between species, which could plausibly influence the strength of competitive interactions for soil N. Due to the size-symmetric nature of belowground competition, we reasoned that differential growth responses to CO 2 and O 3 should shift as juvenile individuals mature, thereby altering competitive hierarchies and forest composition. In a 12-year-long forest FACE experiment, we used tracer 15 N and whole-plant N content to assess belowground competitive interactions among five Populus tremuloides genotypes, between a single P. tremuloides genotype and Betula papryrifera , as well as between the same single P. tremuloides genotype and Acer saccharum . Under elevated CO 2, the amount of soil N and 15 N obtained by the P. tremuloides genotype common to each community was contingent on the nature of belowground competition. When this genotype competed with its congeners, it obtained equivalent amounts of soil N and tracer 15 N under ambient and elevated CO 2 ; however, its acquisition of soil N under elevated CO 2 increased by a significant margin when grown in competition with B. papyrifera (+30%) and A. saccharum (+60%). In contrast, elevated O 3 had no effect on soil N and 15 N acquisition by the P. tremuloides genotype common in each community, regardless of competitive interactions. Under elevated CO 2 , the rank order of N acquisition among P. tremuloides genotypes shifted over time, indicating that growth responses to CO 2 change during ontogeny; this was not the case under elevated O 3 . In the aspen-birch community, the competitive advantage elevated CO 2 initially conveyed on birch diminished over time, whereas maple was a poor competitor for soil N in all regards. The extent to which elevated CO 2 and O 3 will shape the genetic structure and composition of future forests is, in part, contingent on the time-dependent effects of belowground competition on plant growth response.