ALBERT

Description: Extraction of oil and natural gas (hydrocarbons) from shale is increasing rapidly in North America, with documented impacts to native species and ecosystems. With shale oil and gas resources on nearly every continent, this development is set to become a major driver of global land-use change. It is increasingly critical to quantify spatial habitat loss driven by this development to implement effective mitigation strategies and develop habitat offsets. Habitat selection is a fundamental ecological process, influencing both individual fitness and population-level distribution on the landscape. Examinations of habitat selection provide a natural means for understanding spatial impacts. We examined the impact of natural gas development on habitat selection patterns of mule deer on their winter range in Colorado. We fit resource selection functions in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, with habitat availability defined using a movement-based modeling approach. Energy development drove considerable alterations to deer habitat selection patterns, with the most substantial impacts manifested as avoidance of well pads with active drilling to a distance of at least 800 m. Deer displayed more nuanced responses to other infrastructure, avoiding pads with active production and roads to a greater degree during the day than night. In aggregate, these responses equate to alteration of behavior by human development in over 50% of the critical winter range in our study area during the day and over 25% at night. Compared to other regions, the topographic and vegetative diversity in the study area appear to provide refugia that allow deer to behaviorally mediate some of the impacts of development. This study, and the methods we employed, provides a template for quantifying spatial take by industrial activities in natural areas and the results offer guidance for policy makers, mangers, and industry when attempting to mitigate habitat loss due to energy development.

Description: Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler ( Setophaga caerulescens ), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecotones are transition zones that form, in forests, where distinct forest types meet across a climatic gradient. In mountains, ecotones are compressed and act as potential harbingers of species shifts that accompany climate change. As the climate warms in New England, USA, high elevation boreal forests are expected to recede upslope, with northern hardwood species moving up behind. Yet recent empirical studies present conflicting findings on this dynamic, reporting both rapid upward ecotonal shifts and concurrent increases in boreal species within the region. These discrepancies may result from the limited spatial extent of observations. We developed a method to model and map the montane forest ecotone using Landsat imagery to observe change at scales not possible for plot-based studies, covering mountain peaks over 39,000 km 2 . Our results show that ecotones shifted downward or stayed stable on most mountains between 1991 and 2010, but also shifted upward in some cases (13-15% slopes). On average, upper ecotone boundaries moved down -1.5 m·yr −1 in the Green Mountains, VT, and -1.3 m·yr −1 in the White Mountains, NH. These changes agree with re-measured forest inventory data from Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH and suggest that processes of boreal forest recovery from prior red spruce decline, or human landuse and disturbance, may swamp out any signal of climate-mediated migration in this ecosystem. This approach represents a powerful framework for evaluating similar ecotonal dynamics in other mountainous regions of the globe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In order to adequately monitor biodiversity trends through time and their responses to natural or anthropogenic impacts, researchers require long time series that are often unavailable. This general lack of datasets that are several decades or longer makes establishing a background or baseline of diversity metrics difficult – especially when attempting to understand species composition changes against a backdrop of climate and ecological variability. Here we present an analysis of a community of juvenile nearshore fishes based on nearly 8 decades of highly standardized Norwegian survey records. Using multivariate statistical techniques, we: a) characterize the change in taxonomic community composition through time, b) determine whether there has been an increase in warm water affinity species relative to their cold water affinity counterparts, and c) characterize the temporal change in the species’ functional trait assemblage. Our results strongly indicate a shift towards a novel fish assemblage between the late 1990s and 2000s. The context of changes within the most recent two decades are in stark contrast to those during the 60s and 70s, but similar to those during the previous warm period during the 30s and 40s. This novel assemblage is tightly linked to the warming temperatures in the region portrayed by the increased presence of warm water species and a higher incidence of pelagic, planktivorous species. The results indicate a clear influence of ocean temperature on the region's juvenile fish community that points to climate mediated effects on the species assemblages of an important fish nursery area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO 2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m −2 ). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over 300 times more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m −2 ) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southerly latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO 2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO 2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against short-term changes in NEE. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Urban areas are expanding rapidly in tropical regions, with potential to alter ecosystem dynamics. In particular, exotic grasses and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition simultaneously affect urbanized landscapes, with unknown effects on properties like soil carbon (C) storage. We hypothesized that: (H1.) Soil nitrate (NO 3 - ) is elevated nearer to the urban core, reflecting N deposition gradients. (H2.) Exotic grasslands have drier soils, elevated NO 3 - , and decreased soil C relative to secondary forests, with higher N promoting decomposer activity. (H3.) Exotic grasslands have greater seasonality in soil NO 3 - versus secondary forests, due to higher sensitivity of grassland soil moisture to rainfall. We predicted that NO 3 - would be related to dissolved organic C (DOC) production via changes in decomposer activity. We measured six paired grassland/secondary-forest sites along a tropical urban-to-rural gradient during three dominant seasons (hurricane, dry, and early wet). We found that: (1.) Soil NO 3 - was generally elevated near the urban core, with particularly clear spatial trends for grasslands. (2.) Exotic grasslands had lower soil C than secondary forests, which was related to elevated decomposer enzyme activities and soil respiration. Unexpectedly, soil NO 3 - was negatively related to enzyme activities, and was higher in forests than grasslands. (3.) Grasslands had greater soil NO 3 - seasonality versus forests, but this was not strongly linked to shifts in soil moisture or DOC. Our results suggest that exotic grasses in tropical regions are likely to drastically reduce soil C storage, but that N deposition may have an opposite effect via suppression of enzyme activities. However, soil NO 3 - accumulation here was higher in urban forests than grasslands, potentially due to an interplay of aboveground N interception and soil processes. Net urban effects on C storage across tropical landscapes will likely vary depending on rates of N deposition, the mosaic of land covers, and responses by local decomposer communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The response of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools to globally rising surface temperature crucially determines the feedback between climate change and the global carbon cycle. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally cycling SOC which is the main component of total soil carbon stock and the most relevant to global change. We tackled this issue by using two decadally 13 C-labeled soils and a much improved measuring system in a long-term incubation experiment. Results indicated that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally-cycling SOC (〉 23 years in one soil and 〉 55 years in the other soil) was significantly greater than that for faster-cycling SOC (〈 23 or 55 years) or for the entire SOC stock. Moreover, decadally-cycling SOC contributed substantially (35-59%) to the total CO 2 loss during the 360-day incubation. Overall, these results indicate that the decomposition of decadally-cycling SOC is highly sensitive to temperature change, which will likely make this large SOC stock vulnerable to loss by global warming in the 21 st century and beyond. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Human induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has not been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts, and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy-resolving ocean model in south-eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross-current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south-eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~ 4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270km in the model simulation. Thus ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to the climate-induced expansion of species ranges. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid-rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to ten tropical El Niño events. Measureable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven out of ten of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to two months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific events, but delayed (lag of two to eight months) following “Modoki” Central Pacific events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower-frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (1) human activities as drivers of change; (2) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (3) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (4) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes, and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil is the largest stock of carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere, so even slight changes in soil C stock may induce significant fluctuations in the atmospheric C dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. Early coupled C-climate models predicted that positive C-climate feedback would be triggered due to the acceleration of C release to the atmosphere under future climate warming (Cox et al ., 2000). However, due to the omission of key microbial components and biogeochemical mechanisms in these models (Wieder et al ., 2013), these predictions remain controversial, because soil C dynamics is still highly uncertain among results simulated by 11 Earth system models (ESMs) involved in CMIP5 (Ciais et al ., 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The influence of human activity on the biosphere is increasing. While direct damage (e.g. habitat destruction) is relatively well understood, many activities affect wildlife in less apparent ways. Here we investigate how anthropogenic noise impairs foraging, which has direct consequences for animal survival and reproductive success. Noise can disturb foraging via several mechanisms that may operate simultaneously, and thus their effects could not be disentangled hitherto. We developed a diagnostic framework that can be applied to identify the potential mechanisms of disturbance in any species capable of detecting the noise. We tested this framework using Daubenton's bats, which find prey by echolocation. We found that traffic noise reduced foraging efficiency in most bats. Unexpectedly, this effect was present even if the playback noise did not overlap in frequency with the prey echoes. Neither overlapping nor non-overlapping noise influenced the search effort required for a successful prey capture. Hence, noise did not mask prey echoes or reduce the attention of bats. Instead, noise acted as an aversive stimulus that caused avoidance response, thereby reducing foraging efficiency. We conclude that conservation policies may seriously underestimate numbers of species affected and the multilevel effects on animal fitness, if the mechanisms of disturbance are not considered. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the responses of lake systems to past climate change and human activity is critical for assessing and predicting the fate of lake carbon (C) in the future. In this study we synthesized records of the sediment accumulation from 82 lakes and of C sequestration from 58 lakes with direct organic C measurements throughout China. We also identified the controlling factors of the long-term sediment and C accumulation dynamics in these lakes during the past 12 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). Our results indicated an overall increasing trend of sediment and C accumulation since 12 ka, with an accumulation peak in the last couple of millennia for all lakes in China, corresponding to terrestrial organic matter input due to land use change. The Holocene lake sediment accumulation rate (SAR) and C accumulation rate (CAR) averaged (Mean ± SE) 0.47 ± 0.05 mm yr -1 and 7.7 ± 1.4 g C m -2 yr -1 in China, respectively, comparable to the previous estimates for boreal and temperate regions. The SAR for lakes in the East Plain of subtropical China (1.05 ± 0.28 mm yr -1 ) was higher than those in other regions ( P 〈 0.05). However, CAR did not vary significantly among regions. Overall, the variability and history of climate and anthropogenic interference regulated the temporal and spatial dynamics of sediment and C sequestration for lakes in China. We estimated the total amount of C burial in lakes of China as 8.0 ± 1.0 Pg C. This first estimation of total C storage and dynamics in lakes of China confirms the importance of lakes in land C budget in monsoon-influenced regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options – planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice – using the crop simulation model APSIM at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five Global Circulation Models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was non-linear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st Century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Fresh waters make a disproportionately large contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with shallow lakes being particular hotspots. Given their global prevalence, how GHG fluxes from shallow lakes are altered by climate change may have profound implications for the global carbon cycle. Empirical evidence for the temperature dependence of the processes controlling GHG production in natural systems is largely based on the correlation between seasonal temperature variation and seasonal change in GHG fluxes. However, ecosystem-level GHG fluxes could be influenced by factors, which whilst varying seasonally with temperature are actually either indirectly related (e.g. primary producer biomass) or largely unrelated to temperature, for instance nutrient loading. Here, we present results from the longest running shallow-lake mesocosm experiment which demonstrate that nutrient concentrations override temperature as a control of both the total and individual GHG flux. Furthermore, testing for temperature treatment effects at low and high nutrient levels separately showed only one, rather weak, positive effect of temperature (CH 4 flux at high nutrients). In contrast, at low nutrients, the CO 2 efflux was lower in the elevated temperature treatments, with no significant effect on CH 4 or N 2 O fluxes. Further analysis identified possible indirect effects of temperature treatment. For example, at low nutrient levels increased macrophyte abundance was associated with significantly reduced fluxes of both CH 4 and CO 2 for both total annual flux and monthly observation data. As macrophyte abundance was positively related to temperature treatment, this suggests the possibility of indirect temperature effects, via macrophyte abundance, on CH 4 and CO 2 flux. These findings indicate that fluxes of GHGs from shallow lakes may be controlled more by factors indirectly related to temperature, in this case nutrient concentration and the abundance of primary producers. Thus, at ecosystem scale response to climate change may not follow predictions based on the temperature dependence of metabolic processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The tropical coffee crop has been predicted to be threatened by future climate changes and global warming. However, the real biological effects of such changes remain unknown. Therefore, this work aims to link the physiological and biochemical responses of photosynthesis to elevated air [CO 2 ] and temperature in cultivated genotypes of Coffea arabica L. (cv. Icatu and IPR108) and C. canephora cv. Conilon CL153. Plants were grown for 1 year at 25/20ºC (day/night) and 380 or 700 μL CO 2 L -1 , then subjected to temperature increase (0.5ºC/day) to 42/34ºC. Leaf impacts related to stomatal traits, gas exchanges, C-isotope composition, fluorescence parameters, thylakoid electron transport and enzyme activities were assessed at 25/20ºC, 31/25ºC, 37/30ºC and 42/34ºC. The results showed that 1) both species were remarkably heat tolerant up to 37/30ºC, but at 42/34ºC a threshold for irreversible non-stomatal deleterious effects was reached. Impairments were greater in C. arabica (especially in Icatu) and under normal [CO 2 ]. Photosystems and thylakoid electron transport were shown to be quite heat tolerant, contrasting to the enzymes related to energy metabolism, including RuBisCO, which were the most sensitive components. 2) Significant stomatal trait modifications were promoted almost exclusively by temperature and were species dependent. Elevated [CO 2 ] 3) strongly mitigated the impact of temperature on both species, particularly at 42/34ºC, modifying the response to supra-optimal temperatures, 4) promoted higher water use efficiency under moderately higher temperature (31/25 ºC), and 5) did not provoke photosynthetic down-regulation. Instead, enhancements in [CO 2 ] strengthened photosynthetic photochemical efficiency, energy use and biochemical functioning at all temperatures.. Our novel findings demonstrate a relevant heat resilience of coffee species and that elevated [CO 2 ] remarkably mitigated the impact of heat on coffee physiology, therefore playing a key role in this crop sustainability under future climate change scenarios. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for the conservation of biodiversity globally. Previous studies have focussed on the effectiveness of PAs and the design of optimal PA networks. However, not all PAs remain intact permanently; many PAs undergo downgrading, downsizing and/or degazettement (PADDD), a fact largely ignored until recently. The drivers of enacted PADDD events and the factors influencing its spatial occurrence are poorly understood, potentially undermining the efficacy of PAs and PA networks. Here we examine the spatial relationship between PADDD and economic, demographic, and structural variables, using a 110 year dataset of 342 enacted PADDD events across 44 countries in the tropics and sub tropics. We find that the probability of an enacted PADDD event increases with the size of the PA and through a synergistic interaction between PA size and local population densities. Our results are robust to the under-reporting of enacted PADDD events that occur among smaller PAs and in regions with lower population density. We find an economic motive for PADDD events, given that the opportunity costs associated with larger PAs are higher, on average, than smaller PAs. Our findings suggest a need for conservation practitioners to better consider PA characteristics, as well as the social, economic, and political context in which PAs are situated, to aid the creation of more efficient and sustainable PA networks. In particular, the dynamics of enacted PADDD events highlight the need to explicitly consider PA robustness as a core component of systematic conservation planning for PA networks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 / RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of Protected Areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hotspots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate change models suggested (in comparison to the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggests that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool in order to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia ) population in the southwestern USA from 1998-2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern USA has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species’ decline, and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Cities are growing rapidly, thereby expected to cause a large-scale global biotic homogenization. Evidence for the homogenization hypothesis is mostly derived from plants and birds, whereas arthropods have so far been neglected. Here, I tested the homogenization hypothesis with three insect indicator groups, namely true bugs, leafhoppers, and beetles. In particular, I was interested whether insect species community composition differs between urban and rural areas, whether they are more similar between cities than between rural areas, and whether the found pattern is explained by true species turnover, species diversity gradients and geographic distance, by non-native or specialist species, respectively. I analysed insect species communities sampled on birch trees in a total of six Swiss cities and six rural areas nearby. In all indicator groups urban and rural community composition was significantly dissimilar due to native species turnover. Further, for bug and leafhopper communities I found evidence for large-scale homogenization due to urbanization, which was driven by reduced species turnover of specialist species in cities. Species turnover of beetle communities was similar between cities and rural areas. Interestingly, when specialist species of beetles were excluded from the analyses, cities were more dissimilar than rural areas, suggesting biotic differentiation of beetle communities in cities. Non-native species did not affect species turnover of the insect groups. However, given non-native arthropod species are increasing rapidly their homogenizing effect might be detected more often in future. Overall, the results show that urbanization has a negative large-scale impact on the diversity specialist species of the investigated insect groups. Specific measures in cities targeted at increasing the persistence of specialist species typical for the respective biogeographic region could help to stop the loss of biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size-structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: communities of similarly-sized species such as parasitoid-host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size-structured predator-prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Non-random extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size-structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Description: Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH 4 ) / nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH 4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH 4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N 2 O emissions increased twice- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction of CH 4 led to a significantly lower (p〈0.05) annual GWP (CH 4 +N 2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and three years after introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed since it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase of water scarcity it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Agricultural systems are being challenged to decrease water use and increase production while climate becomes more variable and the world's population grows. Low water use efficiency is traditionally characterized by high water use relative to low grain production and usually occurs under dry conditions. However, when a cropping system fails to take advantage of available water during wet conditions, this is also an inefficiency and is often detrimental to the environment. Here we provide a systems-level definition of water use efficiency (sWUE) that addresses both production and environmental quality goals through incorporating all major system water losses (evapotranspiration, drainage, and runoff). We extensively calibrated and tested the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) using six years of continuous crop and soil measurements in corn- and soybean-based cropping systems in central Iowa, USA. We then used the model to determine water use, loss, and grain production in each system and calculated sWUE in years that experienced drought, flood, or historically average precipitation. Systems water use efficiency was found to be greatest during years with average precipitation. Simulation analysis using 28 years of historical precipitation data, plus the same dataset with ± 15% variation in daily precipitation, showed that in this region 430 mm of seasonal (planting to harvesting) rainfall resulted in the optimum sWUE for corn, and 317 mm for soybean. Above these precipitation levels, the corn and soybean yields did not increase further, but the water loss from the system via runoff and drainage increased substantially, leading to a high likelihood of soil, nutrient, and pesticide movement from the field to waterways. As the Midwestern US is predicted to experience more frequent drought and flood, inefficiency of cropping systems water use will also increase. This work provides a framework to concurrently evaluate production and environmental performance of cropping systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; 1) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding, and 2) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species’ responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Human activities are causing rapid environmental change at a global scale. Urbanization is responsible for some of the most extreme human-altered habitats and is a known driver of evolutionary change, but evidence and understanding of these processes is limited. Here, we investigate the potential underlying mechanisms contributing to the contemporary evolution of migration behaviour in the Eurasian blackcap ( Sylvia atricapilla ). Blackcaps from central Europe have been wintering in urban areas of Britain with increasing frequency over the past 60 years, rather than migrating south to the Mediterranean. It has been hypothesized that the popularization of providing supplementary foods for wild birds within Britain may have influenced this marked migratory change, but quantifying the selective forces shaping evolutionary changes remains challenging. Using a long-term national scale data set, we examine both the spatial distribution and interannual variation in blackcap wintering behaviour in Britain in relation to supplementary food availability and local climate. Over a 12-year period, we show that blackcaps are becoming increasingly associated with the provision of supplementary foods in British gardens, and that the reliability of bird food supplies is influencing their winter distribution at a national scale. In addition, local climatic temperatures and broader scale weather variation are also important determinants of blackcap wintering patterns once they arrive in Britain. Based on our findings, we conclude that a synergistic effect of increased availability of feeding resources, in the form of garden bird food, coupled with climatic amelioration, has enabled a successful new wintering population to become established in Britain. As global biodiversity is threatened by human-induced environmental change, this study presents new and timely evidence of the role human activities can play in shaping evolutionary trajectories.

Description: Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of “shredding” detritivores. Stream-scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non-native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (〉60m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem consequences of climate change adaptation in order to guide future actions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Evidence for the theory of biotic resistance is equivocal, with experiments often finding a negative relationship between invasion success and native species richness, and large-scale comparative studies finding a positive relationship. Biotic resistance derives from local species interactions, yet global and regional studies often analyze data at coarse spatial grains. In addition, differences in competitive environments across regions may confound tests of biotic resistance based solely on native species richness of the invaded community. Using global and regional datasets for fishes in river and stream reaches, we ask two questions: 1) does a negative relationship exist between native and non-native species richness and 2) do non-native species originate from higher diversity systems. A negative relationship between native and non-native species richness in local assemblages was found at the global scale, while regional patterns revealed the opposite trend. At both spatial scales, however, nearly all non-native species originated from river basins with higher native species richness than the basin of the invaded community. Together, these findings imply that coevolved ecological interactions in species-rich systems inhibit establishment of generalist non-native species from less diverse communities. Consideration of both the ecological and evolutionary aspects of community assembly is critical to understanding invasion patterns. Distinct evolutionary histories in different regions strongly influence invasion of intact communities that are relatively un-impacted by human actions, and may explain the conflicting relationship between native and non-native species richness found at different spatial scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The functional biogeography of tropical forests is expressed in foliar chemicals that are key physiologically-based predictors of plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions including climate. However, understanding the degree to which environmental filters sort the canopy chemical characteristics of forest canopies remains a challenge. Here we report on the elevation and soil-type dependence of forest canopy chemistry among 75 compositionally and environmentally distinct forests in nine regions, with a total of 7819 individual trees representing 3246 species collected, identified and assayed for foliar traits. We assessed whether there are consistent relationships between canopy chemical traits and both elevation and soil type, and evaluated the general role of phylogeny in mediating of patterns of canopy traits within and across communities. Chemical trait variation and partitioning suggested a general model based on four inter-connected findings. First, geographic variation at the soil Order level, expressing broad changes in fertility, underpins major shifts in foliar phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca). Second, elevation-dependent shifts in average community leaf dry mass per area (LMA), chlorophyll, and carbon allocation (including non-structural carbohydrates) are most strongly correlated with changes in foliar Ca. Third, chemical diversity within communities is driven by differences between species rather than by plasticity within species. Finally, elevation- and soil-dependent changes in N, LMA and leaf carbon allocation are mediated by canopy compositional turnover, whereas foliar P and Ca are driven more by changes in site conditions than by phylogeny. Our findings have broad implications for understanding the global ecology of humid tropical forests, and their functional responses to changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations increase plant productivity and affect soil microbial communities, with possible consequences for the turnover rate of soil carbon (C) pools and feedbacks to the atmosphere. In a previous analysis (van Groenigen et al., 2014), we used experimental data to inform a one-pool model, and showed that elevated CO 2 increases the decomposition rate of soil organic C, negating the storage potential of soil. However, a two-pool soil model can potentially explain patterns of soil C dynamics without invoking effects of CO 2 on decomposition rates. To address this issue, we refit our data to a two-pool soil C model. We found that CO 2 enrichment increases decomposition rates of both fast and slow C pools. In addition, elevated CO 2 decreased the carbon use efficiency of soil microbes (CUE), thereby further reducing soil C storage. These findings are consistent with numerous empirical studies and corroborate the results from our previous analysis. To facilitate understanding of C dynamics, we suggest that empirical and theoretical studies incorporate multiple soil C pools with potentially variable decomposition rates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Coherent timing of agricultural expansion, fertilizer application, atmospheric nutrient deposition, and accelerated global warming is expected to promote synchronous fertilization of regional surface waters and coherent development of algal blooms and lake eutrophication. While broad-scale cyanobacterial expansion is evident in global meta-analyses, little is known of whether lakes in discrete catchments within a common lake district also exhibit coherent water quality degradation through anthropogenic forcing. Consequently, the primary goal of this study was to determine whether agricultural development since ca. 1900, accelerated use of fertilizer since 1960, atmospheric deposition of reactive N, or regional climate warming has resulted in coherent patterns of eutrophication of surface waters in southern Alberta, Canada. Unexpectedly, analysis of sedimentary pigments as an index of changes in total algal abundance since ca. 1850 revealed that while total algal abundance (as β-carotene, pheophytin a ) increased in nine of 10 lakes over 150 years, the onset of eutrophication varied by a century and was asynchronous across basins. Similarly, analysis of temporal sequences with least squares regression revealed that the relative abundance of cyanobacteria (echinenone) either decreased or did not change significantly in eight of the lakes since ca. 1850, whereas purple sulphur bacteria (as okenone) increased significantly in seven study sites. These patterns are consistent with the catchment filter hypothesis which posits that lakes exhibit unique responses to common forcing associated with the influx of mass as water, nutrients, or particles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Plants are often genetically specialized as ecotypes attuned to local environmental conditions. When conditions change, the optimal environment may be physically displaced from the local population, unless dispersal or in situ evolution keep pace, resulting in a phenomenon called adaptational lag. Using a 30 year old reciprocal transplant study across a 475 km latitudinal gradient, we tested the adaptational lag hypothesis by measuring both short-term (tiller population growth rates) and long-term (17 year survival) fitness components of Eriophorum vaginatum ecotypes in Alaska, where climate change may have already displaced the optimum. Analyzing the transplant study as a climate transfer experiment, we showed that the climate optimum for plant performance was displaced ca. 140 km north of home sites, although plants were not generally declining in size at home sites. Adaptational lag is expected to be widespread globally for long-lived, ecotypically specialized plants, with disruptive consequences for communities and ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO 2 ] (C E ) and elevated temperature (T E ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima . Both genotypes were positively responsive to C E (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to T E . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to T E (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under C E or T E , and the interactive effects of C E and T E on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, T E was a more effective climate factor than C E in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In their recent Letter Olalla-Tárraga et al. (2015; hereafter ‘OT&al’) applied phylogenetic path analysis to investigate the determinants of range size in terrestrial mammals. They concurred with Di Marco & Santini (2015; hereafter ‘DM&S’) in identifying the predictive importance of human pressure, but disagreed that this role prevails over biological traits, criticizing some conceptual and methodological aspects of DM&S. OT&al found that climatic niche is the primary predictor of range size, while human pressure and biological traits were of secondary importance. Here we discuss that the two studies are not directly comparable, and we address the criticisms to DM&S. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In a recent letter, Thomsen and Wernberg (2015) reanalyzed data compiled for our recent paper (Lyons et al. 2014). In that paper, we examined the effects of macroalgal blooms and macroalgal mats on seven important measures of community structure and ecosystem functioning, and explored several ecological and methodological factors that might explain some of the variation in the observed effects. Thomsen and Wernberg (2015) reanalyzed two small subsets of the data, focusing on experimental studies examining effects of blooms/mats on invertebrate abundance. Their analyses revealed two interesting patterns. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global warming will jeopardize the persistence and genetic diversity of many species. Assisted colonization, or the movement of species beyond their current range boundary, is a conservation strategy proposed for species with limited dispersal abilities or adaptive potential. However, species that rely on photoperiodic and thermal cues for development may experience conflicting signals if transported across latitudes. Relocating multiple, distinct populations may remedy this quandary by expanding genetic variation and promoting evolutionary responses in the receiving habitat - a strategy known as assisted gene flow. In order to better inform these policies, we planted seeds from latitudinally distinct populations of the annual legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata , in a potential future colonization site north of its current range boundary. Plants were exposed to ambient or elevated temperatures via infrared heating. We monitored several life history traits and estimated patterns of natural selection in order to determine the adaptive value of plastic responses. To assess the feasibility of assisted gene flow between phenologically distinct populations, we counted flowers each day and estimated the degree of temporal isolation between populations. Increased temperatures advanced each successive phenological trait more than the last, resulting in a compressed life cycle for all but the southern-most population. Warming altered patterns of selection on flowering onset and vegetative biomass. Population performance was dependent on latitude of origin, with the northern-most population performing best under ambient conditions and the southern-most performing most poorly, even under elevated temperatures. Among-population differences in flowering phenology limited the potential for genetic exchange among the northern and southern-most populations. All plastic responses to warming were neutral or adaptive, however photoperiodic constraints will likely necessitate evolutionary responses for long-term persistence, especially when involving populations from disparate latitudes. With strategic planning, our results suggest that assisted colonization and assisted gene flow may be feasible options for preservation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species of Alexandrium produce potent neurotoxins termed paralytic shellfish toxins and are expanding their ranges worldwide, concurrent with increases in sea surface temperature. The metabolism of molluscs is temperature dependent, and increases in ocean temperature may influence both the abundance and distribution of Alexandrium and the dynamics of toxin uptake and depuration in shellfish. Here, we conducted a large-scale study of the effect of temperature on the uptake and depuration of paralytic shellfish toxins in three commercial oysters ( Saccostrea glomerata and diploid and triploid Crassostrea gigas, n  = 252 per species/ploidy level). Oysters were acclimated to two constant temperatures, reflecting current and predicted climate scenarios (22 and 27 °C), and fed a diet including the paralytic shellfish toxin-producing species Alexandrium minutum . While the oysters fed on A. minutum in similar quantities, concentrations of the toxin analogue GTX1,4 were significantly lower in warm-acclimated S. glomerata and diploid C. gigas after 12 days. Following exposure to A. minutum , toxicity of triploid C. gigas was not affected by temperature. Generally, detoxification rates were reduced in warm-acclimated oysters. The routine metabolism of the oysters was not affected by the toxins, but a significant effect was found at a cellular level in diploid C. gigas . The increasing incidences of Alexandrium blooms worldwide are a challenge for shellfish food safety regulation. Our findings indicate that rising ocean temperatures may reduce paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in two of the three oyster types; however, they may persist for longer periods in oyster tissue.

Description: Organic matter (OM) plays a major role in both terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The amount of carbon stored in these systems is far greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere, and annual fluxes of CO 2 from these pools to the atmosphere exceed those from fossil fuel combustion. Understanding the processes that determine the fate of detrital material is important for predicting the effects that climate change will have on feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. However, Earth System Models (ESMs) typically utilize very simple formulations of processes affecting the mineralization and storage of detrital OM. Recent changes in our view of the nature of this material and the factors controlling its transformation have yet to find their way into models. In this review, we highlight the current understanding of the role and cycling of detrital OM in terrestrial and marine systems and examine how this pool of material is represented in ESMs. We include a discussion of the different mineralization pathways available as organic matter moves from soils, through inland waters to coastal systems and ultimately into open ocean environments. We argue that there is strong commonality between aspects of OM transformation in both terrestrial and marine systems, and that our respective scientific communities would benefit from closer collaboration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The production of pyrogenic carbon (PyC; a continuum of organic carbon (C) ranging from partially charred biomass and charcoal to soot) is a widely acknowledged C sink, with the latest estimates indicating that ~50% of the PyC produced by vegetation fires potentially sequester C over centuries. Nevertheless, the quantitative importance of PyC in the global C balance remains contentious and therefore PyC is rarely considered in global C cycle and climate studies. Here we examine the robustness of existing evidence and identify the main research gaps in the production, fluxes and fate of PyC from vegetation fires. Much of the previous work on PyC production has focused on selected components of total PyC generated in vegetation fires, likely leading to underestimates. We suggest that global PyC production could be in the range of 114-379 Tg C yr −1 , i.e. ~0.2-0.6% of the annual terrestrial net primary production. According to our estimations, atmospheric emissions of soot/black C might be a smaller fraction of total PyC (〈2%) than previously reported. Research on the fate of PyC in the environment has mainly focused on its degradation pathways, and its accumulation and resilience either in situ (surface soils) or in ultimate sinks (marine sediments). Off-site transport, transformation and PyC storage in intermediate pools are often overlooked, which could explain the fate of a substantial fraction of the PyC mobilized annually. We propose new research directions addressing gaps in the global PyC cycle to fully understand the importance of the products of burning in global C cycle dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Although the influence of nitrogen (N) addition on grassland plant communities has been widely studied, it is still unclear whether observed patterns and underlying mechanisms are constant across biomes. In this systematic review, we use meta-analysis and meta-regression to investigate the influence of N addition (here referring mostly to fertilisation) upon the biodiversity of temperate mountain grasslands (including montane, subalpine and alpine zones). Forty-two studies met our criteria of inclusion, resulting in 134 measures of effect size. The main general responses of mountain grasslands to N addition were increases in phytomass and reductions in plant species richness, as observed in lowland grasslands. More specifically, the analysis reveals that negative effects on species richness were exacerbated by dose (ha −1 year −1 ) and duration of N application (years) in an additive manner. Thus, sustained application of low to moderate levels of N over time had effects similar to short term application of high N doses. The climatic context also played an important role: the overall effects of N addition on plant species richness and diversity (Shannon index) were less pronounced in mountain grasslands experiencing cool rather than warm summers. Furthermore, the relative negative effect of N addition on species richness was more pronounced in managed communities, and was strongly negatively related to N-induced increases in phytomass, i.e. the greater the phytomass response to N addition, the greater the decline in richness. Altogether, this review not only establishes that plant biodiversity of mountain grasslands is negatively affected by N addition, it also demonstrates that several local management and abiotic factors interact with N addition to drive plant community changes. This synthesis yields essential information for a more sustainable management of mountain grasslands, emphasizing the importance of preserving and restoring grasslands with both low agricultural N application and limited exposure to N atmospheric deposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecosystem carbon (C) accrual and storage can be enhanced by removing large herbivores as well as by the fertilizing effect of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition. These drivers are unlikely to operate independently, yet their combined effect on aboveground and belowground C storage remains largely unexplored. We sampled inside and outside 19 upland grazing exclosures, established for up to 80 years, across an N deposition gradient (5–24 kg N ha −1  yr −1 ) and found that herbivore removal increased aboveground plant C stocks, particularly in moss, shrubs and litter. Soil C storage increased with atmospheric N deposition, and this was moderated by the presence or absence of herbivores. In exclosures receiving above 11 kg N ha −1  year −1 , herbivore removal resulted in increased soil C stocks. This effect was typically greater for exclosures dominated by dwarf shrubs ( Calluna vulgaris ) than by grasses ( Molinia caerulea ). The same pattern was observed for ecosystem C storage. We used our data to predict C storage for a scenario of removing all large herbivores from UK heathlands. Predictions were made considering herbivore removal only (ignoring N deposition) and the combined effects of herbivore removal and current N deposition rates. Predictions including N deposition resulted in a smaller increase in UK heathland C storage than predictions using herbivore removal only. This finding was driven by the fact that the majority of UK heathlands receive low N deposition rates at which herbivore removal has little effect on C storage. Our findings demonstrate the crucial link between herbivory by large mammals and atmospheric N deposition, and this interaction needs to be considered in models of biogeochemical cycling.

Description: The temperature dependence of the reaction kinetics of the Rubisco enzyme implies that, at the level of a chloroplast, the response of photosynthesis to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration (C a ) will increase with increasing air temperature. Vegetation models incorporating this interaction predict that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO 2 (eC a ) will increase with rising temperature, and will be substantially larger in warm tropical forests than in cold boreal forests. We tested these model predictions against evidence from eC a experiments by carrying out two meta-analyses. Firstly, we tested for an interaction effect on growth responses in factorial eC a x temperature experiments. This analysis showed a positive, but non-significant interaction effect (95% CI for above-ground biomass response = -0.8, 18.0%) between eC a and temperature. Secondly, we tested field-based eC a experiments on woody plants across the globe for a relationship between the eC a effect on plant biomass and mean annual temperature (MAT). This second analysis showed a positive but non-significant correlation between the eC a response and MAT. The magnitude of the interactions between CO 2 and temperature found in both meta-analyses were consistent with model predictions, even though both analyses gave non-significant results. Thus, we conclude that it is not possible to distinguish between the competing hypotheses of no interaction versus an interaction based on Rubisco kinetics from the available experimental database. Experiments in a wider range of temperature zones are required. Until such experimental data are available, model predictions should aim to incorporate uncertainty about this interaction. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In a letter to the editor Sundby (2015) expresses concerns about our study of changing spawning locations of the Northeast Arctic (NEA) stock of Atlantic cod over the period 1866-1969, where we identified statistically significant effects of the stock's demography whereas various climate indices all fell below statistical significance. Our conclusion on the role ascribed to climate disagrees with that of Sundby & Nakken (2008), which, based on a subset of our data and without considering demography, concluded that spawning was shifted northwards in warm periods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Quantifying landscape-scale methane (CH 4 ) fluxes from boreal and arctic regions, and determining how they are controlled, is critical for predicting the magnitude of any CH 4 emission feedback to climate change. Furthermore, there remains uncertainty regarding the relative importance of small areas of strong methanogenic activity, versus larger areas with net CH 4 uptake, in controlling landscape-level fluxes. We measured CH 4 fluxes from multiple microtopographical subunits (sedge-dominated lawns, interhummocks and hummocks) within an aapa mire in subarctic Finland, as well as in drier ecosystems present in the wider landscape; lichen heath and mountain birch forest. An inter-comparison was carried out between fluxes measured using static chambers, up-scaled using a high resolution landcover map derived from aerial photography, and eddy covariance. Strong agreement was observed between the two methodologies, with emission rates greatest in lawns. CH 4 fluxes from lawns were strongly related to seasonal fluctuations in temperature, but their floating nature meant that water-table depth was not a key factor in controlling CH 4 release. In contrast, chamber measurements identified net CH 4 uptake in birch forest soils. An inter-comparison between the aerial photography and satellite remote sensing demonstrated that quantifying the distribution of the key CH 4 emitting and consuming plant communities was possible from satellite, allowing fluxes to be scaled up to a 100 km 2 area. For the full growing season (May to October), approximately 1.1 to 1.4 g CH 4 m −2 was released across the 100 km 2 area. This was based on up-scaled lawn emissions of 1.2 to 1.5 g CH 4 m −2 , versus an up-scaled uptake of 0.07 to 0.15 g CH 4 m −2 by the wider landscape. Given the strong temperature sensitivity of the dominant lawn fluxes, and the fact that lawns are unlikely to dry out, climate warming may substantially increase CH 4 emissions in northern Finland, and in aapa mire regions in general. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Intensification of agriculture to meet the global food, feed, and bioenergy demand entail increasing re-investment of carbon compounds (residues) into agro-systems to prevent decline of soil quality and fertility. However, agricultural intensification decreases soil methane uptake, reducing and even causing the loss of the methane sink function. In contrast to wetland agricultural soils (rice paddies), the methanotrophic potential in well-aerated agricultural soils have received little attention, presumably due to the anticipated low or negligible methane uptake capacity in these soils. Consequently, a detailed study verifying or refuting this assumption is still lacking. Exemplifying a typical agricultural practice, we determined the impact of bio-based residue application on soil methane flux, and determined the methanotrophic potential, including a qualitative (diagnostic microarray) and quantitative (group-specific qPCR assays) analysis of the methanotrophic community after residue amendments over two months. Unexpectedly, after amendments with specific residues we detected a significant transient stimulation of methane uptake confirmed by both the methane flux measurements and methane oxidation assay. This stimulation was apparently a result of induced cell-specific activity, rather than growth of the methanotroph population. Although transient, the heightened methane uptake offsets up to 16% of total gaseous CO 2 emitted during the incubation. The methanotrophic community, predominantly comprised of Methylosinus may facilitate methane oxidation in the agricultural soils. While agricultural soils are generally regarded as a net methane source or a relatively weak methane sink, our results show that methane oxidation rate can be stimulated, leading to higher soil methane uptake. Hence, even if agriculture exerts an adverse impact on soil methane uptake, implementing carefully designed management strategies (e.g. repeated application of specific residues) may compensate for the loss of the methane sink function following land-use change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Methane is an important greenhouse gas but characterizing production by source sector has proven difficult. Current estimates suggest herbivores produce ~20% (~76-189 Tg yr −1 ) of methane globally, with wildlife contributions uncertain. We develop a simple and accurate method to estimate methane emissions and reevaluate production by wildlife. We find a strikingly robust relationship between body mass and methane output exceeding the scaling expected by differences in metabolic rate. Our allometric model gives a significantly better fit to empirical data than IPCC Tier 1 and 2 calculations. Our analysis suggests that: a) the allometric model provides an easier and more robust estimate of methane production than IPCC models currently in use, b) output from wildlife is much higher than previously considered, and c) because of the sublinear allometric scaling of methane output with body mass, national emissions could be reduced if countries favored more, smaller livestock, over fewer, larger ones. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory towards an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, i.e . the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure and feedbacks. Here we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase four years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by inter-annual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28) and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15 year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of Regional Climate Change Models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15 year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Animal assemblages fulfill a critical set of ecological functions for ecosystems that may be altered substantially as climate change-induced distribution changes lead to community disaggregation and reassembly. We combine species and community perspectives to assess the consequences of projected geographic range changes for the diverse functional attributes of avian assemblages worldwide. Assemblage functional structure is projected to change highly unevenly across space. These differences arise from both changes in the number of species and changes in species’ relative local functional redundancy or distinctness. They sometimes result in substantial losses of functional diversity that could have severe consequences for ecosystem health. Range expansions may counter functional losses in high-latitude regions, but offer little compensation in many tropical and subtropical biomes. Future management of local community function and ecosystem services thus relies on understanding the global dynamics of species distributions and multiscale approaches that include the biogeographic context of species traits.

Description: Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.

Description: Increased reactive nitrogen (N r ) deposition has raised the amount of N available to organisms and has greatly altered the transfer of energy through food webs, with major consequences for trophic dynamics. The aim of this review is to: 1) clarify the direct and indirect effects of N r deposition on forest and lake food webs in N limited biomes, 2) compare and contrast how aquatic and terrestrial systems respond to increased N r deposition, and 3) identify how the nutrient pathways within and between ecosystems change in response to N r deposition. We present that N r deposition releases primary producers from N limitation in both forest and lake ecosystems and raises plants’ N-content which in turn benefits herbivores with high N requirements. Such trophic effects are coupled with a general decrease in biodiversity caused by different N-use efficiencies; Slow-growing species with low rates of N turnover are replaced by fast-growing species with high rates of N turnover. In contrast, N r deposition diminishes belowground production in forests, due to a range of mechanisms that reduce microbial biomass, and decreases lake benthic productivity by switching herbivore growth from N to phosphorus (P) limitation, and by intensifying P limitation of benthic fish. The flow of nutrients between ecosystems is expected to change with increasing N r deposition. Due to higher litter production and more intense precipitation, more terrestrial matter will enter lakes. This will benefit bacteria and will in turn boost the microbial food web. Additionally, N r deposition promotes emergent insects which subsidize the terrestrial food web as prey for insectivores or by dying and decomposing on land. So far most studies have examined N r deposition effects on the food web base, whereas our review highlights that changes at the base of food webs substantially impact higher trophic levels and therefore food web structure and functioning. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Elevated atmospheric CO 2 generally enhances plant growth, but the magnitude of the effects depend, in part, on nutrient availability and plant photosynthetic pathway. Due to their pivotal role in nutrient cycling, changes in abundance of detritivores could influence the effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 on essential ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and primary production. We conducted a field survey and a microcosm experiment to test the influence of changes in detritus based food chains on litter mass loss and plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO 2 using two wetland plants: a C 3 sedge ( Scirpus olneyi ) and a C 4 grass ( Spartina patens ). Our field study revealed that organism's sensitivity to climate increased with trophic level resulting in strong inter-annual variation in detritus based food chain length. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that increased detritivore abundance could not only enhance decomposition rates, but also enhance plant growth of S. olneyi in elevated atmospheric CO 2 conditions. In contrast, we found no evidence that changes in the detritus-based food chains influenced the growth of S. patens . Considered together, these results emphasize the importance of approaches that unite traditionally subdivided food web compartments and plant physiological processes to understand inter-annual variation in plant production response to elevated atmospheric CO 2. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Selective herbivory of palatable plant species provides a competitive advantage for unpalatable plant species, which often have slow growth rates and produce slowly decomposable litter. We hypothesized that through a shift in the vegetation community from palatable, deciduous dwarf shrubs to unpalatable, evergreen dwarf shrubs, selective herbivory may counteract the increased shrub abundance that is otherwise found in tundra ecosystems, in turn interacting with the responses of ecosystem carbon (C) stocks and CO 2 balance to climatic warming. We tested this hypothesis in a 19-year field experiment with factorial treatments of warming and simulated herbivory on the dominant deciduous dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus . Warming was associated with a significantly increased vegetation abundance, with the strongest effect on deciduous dwarf shrubs, resulting in greater rates of both gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) as well as increased C stocks. Simulated herbivory increased the abundance of evergreen dwarf shrubs, most importantly Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum, which led to a recent shift in the dominant vegetation from deciduous to evergreen dwarf shrubs. Simulated herbivory caused no effect on GEP and ER or the total ecosystem C stocks, indicating that the vegetation shift counteracted the herbivore-induced C loss from the system. A larger proportion of the total ecosystem C stock was found aboveground, rather than belowground, in plots treated with simulated herbivory. We conclude that by providing a competitive advantage to unpalatable plant species with slow growth rates and long life spans, selective herbivory may promote aboveground C stocks in a warming tundra ecosystem and, through this mechanism, counteract C losses that result from plant biomass consumption. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The geographic range of a species is arguably the basic unit in biogeography and macroecology (Brown et al., 1996). In particular, there has been a long-standing interest in understanding the mechanisms that shape the immense interspecific variation in geographic range size, a question often framed around Rapoport's rule (Whitton et al. 2012). As an emergent species-level trait, range sizes reflect the interplay of ecological and evolutionary processes and are of utmost importance for predicting speciation-extinction dynamics (Jablonski 2008). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The global European eel ( Anguilla anguilla ) stock is critically endangered according to the IUCN, and the European Commission has urged the development of conservation plans aimed to ensure its viability. However, the complex life cycle of this panmictic species, which reproduces in the open ocean but spends most of its pre-reproductive life in continental waters (thus embracing a huge geographic range and a variety of habitat types), makes it difficult to assess the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. The interplay between local and global stressors raises intriguing cross-scale conservation challenges that require a comprehensive modelling approach to be addressed. We developed a full life cycle model of the global European eel stock, encompassing both the oceanic and the continental phase of eel's life, and explicitly allowing for spatial heterogeneity in vital rates, availability of suitable habitat and settlement potential via a metapopulation approach. We calibrated the model against a long-term time series of global European eel catches, and used it to hindcast the dynamics of the stock in the past and project it over the 21st century under different management scenarios. Although our analysis relies on a number of inevitable simplifying assumptions and on data that may not embrace the whole range of variation in population dynamics at the small spatiotemporal scale, our hindcast is consistent with the general pattern of decline of the stock over recent decades. The results of our projections suggest that i ) habitat loss played a major role in the European eel decline; ii ) the viability of the global stock is at risk if appropriate protection measures are not implemented; iii ) the recovery of spawner escapement requires that fishing mortality is significantly reduced; iv ) the recovery of recruitment might not be feasible if reproductive output is not enhanced. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO 2 fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights on species-specific growth changes – that ultimately determine community-level responses – are lacking. Here we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (Regional Curve Standardization) and a new (Size Class Isolation) growth trend-detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO 2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Organic carbon (OC) sequestration in degraded semi-arid environments by improved soil management is assumed to contribute substantially to climate change mitigation. However, information about the soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in steppe soils and their current saturation status remains unknown. In this study, we estimated the OC storage capacity of semi-arid grassland soils on the basis of remote, natural steppe fragments in Northern China. Based on the maximum OC saturation of silt and clay particles 〈20 μm, OC sequestration potentials of degraded steppe soils (grazing land, arable land, eroded areas) were estimated. The analysis of natural grassland soils revealed a strong linear regression between the proportion of the fine fraction and its OC content, confirming the importance of silt and clay particles for OC stabilization in steppe soils. This relationship was similar to derived regressions in temperate and tropical soils but on a lower level, probably due to a lower C input and different clay mineralogy. In relation to the estimated OC storage capacity, degraded steppe soils showed a high OC saturation of 78 to 85% despite massive SOC losses due to unsustainable land use. As a result, the potential of degraded grassland soils to sequester additional OC was generally low. This can be related to a relatively high contribution of labile SOC, which is preferentially lost in the course of soil degradation. Moreover, wind erosion leads to substantial loss of silt and clay particles and consequently results in a direct loss of the ability to stabilize additional OC. Our findings indicate that the SOC loss in semi-arid environments induced by intensive land use is largely irreversible. Observed SOC increases after improved land management mainly result in an accumulation of labile SOC prone to land use/climate changes and therefore cannot be regarded as contribution to long-term OC sequestration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global warming poses a threat to organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination because it can affect operational sex ratios. Using a multigenerational experiment with a marine fish, we provide the first evidence that parents developing from early life at elevated temperatures can adjust their offspring gender through nongenetic and nonbehavioural means. However, this adjustment was not possible when parents reproduced, but did not develop, at elevated temperatures. Complete restoration of the offspring sex ratio occurred when parents developed at 1.5 °C above the present-day average temperature for one generation. However, only partial improvement in the sex ratio occurred at 3.0 °C above average conditions, even after two generations, suggesting a limitation to transgenerational plasticity when developmental temperature is substantially increased. This study highlights the potential for transgenerational plasticity to ameliorate some impacts of climate change and that development from early life may be essential for expression of transgenerational plasticity in some traits.

Description: Knowledge of how temperature influences an organism's physiology and behaviour is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on species’ interactions. While the behaviour of many organisms is driven by chemical information on which they rely to detect resources, conspecifics, natural enemies, and competitors, the effects of temperature on infochemical-mediated interactions remain largely unexplored. Here, we experimentally show that temperature strongly influences the emission of infochemicals by ladybeetle larvae which, in turn, modifies the oviposition behaviour of conspecific females. Temperature also directly affects female perception of infochemicals and their oviposition behaviour. Our results suggest that temperature-mediated effects on chemical communication can influence flows across system boundaries (e.g. immigration and emigration) and thus alter the dynamics and stability of ecological networks. We therefore argue that investigating the effects of temperature on chemical communication is a crucial step towards a better understanding of the functioning of ecological communities facing rapid environmental changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e.,cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer-dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G×E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) to test the hypotheses: 1)cool-temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, 2)there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed-source climate variables, 3)observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, 4)movement of seed-sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool-temperature cues (e.g., degree-hours below 2°C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3-fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed-source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed-source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold hardiness, and seed-source movement from warmer to cooler climates may be a viable option for adapting coniferous forest to future climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The ongoing changes in vegetation spring phenology in temperate/cold regions are widely attributed to temperature. However, in arid/semiarid ecosystems the correlation between spring temperature and phenology is much less clear. We test the hypothesis that precipitation plays an important role in the temperature dependency of phenology in arid/semi-arid regions. We therefore investigated the influence of preseason precipitation on satellite-derived estimates of starting date of vegetation growing season (SOS) across the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We observed two clear patterns linking precipitation to SOS. First, SOS is more sensitive to inter-annual variations in preseason precipitation in more arid than in wetter areas. Spatially, an increase in long-term averaged preseason precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to a decrease of the precipitation sensitivity of SOS by about 0.01 day mm −1 . Second, SOS is more sensitive to variations in preseason temperature in wetter than in dryer areas of the plateau. A spatial increase in precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to an increase in temperature sensitivity of SOS of 0.25 day °C −1 (0.25-day SOS advance per 1-°C temperature increase). Those two patterns indicate both direct and indirect impacts of precipitation on SOS on TP. This study suggest a balance between maximizing benefit from the limiting climatic resource and minimizing the risk imposed by other factors. In wetter areas, the lower risk of drought allows greater temperature sensitivity of SOS to maximize the thermal benefit, which is further supported by the weaker inter-annual partial correlation between growing degree days and preseason precipitation. In more arid areas, maximizing the benefit of water requires greater sensitivity of SOS to precipitation, with reduced sensitivity to temperature. This study highlights the impacts of precipitation on SOS in a large cold and arid/semiarid region and suggests that influences of water should be included in SOS module of terrestrial ecosystem models for drylands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In a recent study, Hamann et al . (2015) proposed a new algorithm for computing climatic velocity. The advantage of the new method in comparison to the classical one (Loaire et al ., 2009) was that it could effectively avoid infinite velocity and present scale-invariant property. Here, I showed that this novel method actually was a hybrid of two simple methods in species distribution modeling (SDMs). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil microorganisms regulate fundamental biochemical processes in plant litter decomposition and soil organic matter (SOM) transformation. Understanding how microbial communities respond to changes in vegetation is critical for improving predictions of how land cover change affects belowground carbon storage and nutrient availability. We measured intra- and interannual variability in soil and forest litter microbial community composition and activity via phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA) and extracellular enzyme activity across a well-replicated, long-term chronosequence of secondary forests growing on abandoned pastures in the wet subtropical forest life zone of Puerto Rico. Microbial community PLFA structure differed between young, secondary forests and older secondary and primary forests, following successional shifts in tree species composition. These successional patterns held across seasons, but the microbial groups driving these patterns differed over time. Microbial community composition from the forest litter differed greatly from those in the soil, but did not show the same successional trends. Extracellular enzyme activity did not differ with forest succession, but varied by season with greater rates of potential activity in the dry seasons. We found few robust significant relationships among microbial community parameters and soil pH, moisture, carbon and nitrogen concentrations. Observed inter- and intrannual variability in microbial community structure and activity reveal the importance of a multiple, temporal, sampling strategy when investigating microbial community dynamics with land-use change. Successional control over microbial composition with forest recovery suggests strong links between above and belowground communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: One of the most important contemporary issues for coral reefs, apart from the need to reduce green-house gas emissions, is to understand the vulnerability of reef corals to climate change, and to identify climate-change refugia. We recently used global species distribution models with two predictive variables, photosynthetically available radiation and sea-surface temperature, to identify 12 localities in the Indian and Pacific Oceans that may serve as reef-coral refugia from climate change (Cacciapagalia and van Woesik 2015). The two environmental variables were used as our main predictors because: (i) corals extract most of their metabolic resources from their endosymbionts that photosynthesize, and (ii) symbiotic dysfunction, observed as coral bleaching and subsequent coral mortality, occurs through the interaction between high light (photoinhibition) and high temperature anomalies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Identifying the relative importance of climatic and other environmental controls on the inter-annual variability and trends in global land surface phenology and greenness is challenging. Firstly, quantifications of land surface phenology and greenness dynamics are impaired by differences between satellite datasets and phenology detection methods. Secondly, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) that can be used to diagnose controls still reveal structural limitations and contrasting sensitivities to environmental drivers. Thus we assessed the performance of a new developed phenology module within the LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed Lands) DGVM with a comprehensive ensemble of three satellite datasets of vegetation greenness and ten phenology detection methods, thereby thoroughly accounting for observational uncertainties. The improved and tested model allows us quantifying the relative importance of environmental controls on inter-annual variability and trends of land surface phenology and greenness at regional and global scales. We found that start of growing season inter-annual variability and trends are in addition to cold temperature mainly controlled by incoming radiation and water availability in temperate and boreal forests. Warming-induced prolongations of the growing season in high latitudes are dampened by a limited availability of light. For peak greenness, inter-annual variability and trends are dominantly controlled by water availability and land use and land cover change (LULCC) in all regions. Stronger greening trends in boreal forests of Siberia than in North America are associated to a stronger increase in water availability from melting permafrost soils. Our findings emphasize that in addition to cold temperatures, water availability is a co-dominant control for start of growing season and peak greenness trends at the global scale. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Carbon captured by marine organisms helps sequester atmospheric CO 2 , especially in shallow coastal ecosystems, where rates of primary production and burial of organic carbon (OC) from multiple sources are high. However, linkages between the dynamics of OC derived from multiple sources and carbon sequestration are poorly understood. We investigated the origin (terrestrial, phytobenthos derived, and phytoplankton derived) of particulate OC (POC) and dissolved OC (DOC) in the water column and sedimentary OC using elemental, isotopic, and optical signatures in Furen Lagoon, Japan. Based on these data analysis, we explored how OC from multiple sources contributes to sequestration via storage in sediments, water column sequestration, and air–sea CO 2 exchanges, and analyzed how the contributions vary with salinity in a shallow seagrass meadow as well. The relative contribution of terrestrial POC in the water column decreased with increasing salinity, whereas autochthonous POC increased in the salinity range 10–30. Phytoplankton-derived POC dominated the water column POC (65–95%) within this salinity range; however, it was minor in the sediments (3–29%). In contrast, terrestrial and phytobenthos-derived POC were relatively minor contributors in the water column but were major contributors in the sediments (49–78% and 19–36%, respectively), indicating that terrestrial and phytobenthos-derived POC were selectively stored in the sediments. Autochthonous DOC, part of which can contribute to long-term carbon sequestration in the water column, accounted for 〉25% of the total water column DOC pool in the salinity range 15–30. Autochthonous OC production decreased the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon in the water column and thereby contributed to atmospheric CO 2 uptake, except in the low-salinity zone. Our results indicate that shallow coastal ecosystems function not only as transition zones between land and ocean but also as carbon sequestration filters. They function at different timescales, depending on the salinity, and OC sources.

Description: Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing, and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate-change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems are largely driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems’ vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Several studies have shown that satellite retrievals of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provide useful information on terrestrial photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP). Here, we have incorporated equations coupling SIF to photosynthesis in a land surface model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model version 4 (NCAR CLM4) and have demonstrated its use as a diagnostic tool for evaluating the calculation of photosynthesis, a key process in a land surface model that strongly influences the carbon, water, and energy cycles. By comparing forward simulations of SIF, essentially as a byproduct of photosynthesis, in CLM4 with observations of actual SIF, it is possible to check whether the model is accurately representing photosynthesis and the processes coupled to it. We provide some background on how SIF is coupled to photosynthesis, describe how SIF was incorporated into CLM4, and demonstrate that our simulated relationship between SIF and GPP values are reasonable when compared with satellite (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite; GOSAT) and in situ flux-tower measurements. CLM4 overestimates SIF in tropical forests, and we show that this error can be corrected by adjusting the maximum carboxylation rate (V max ) specified for tropical forests in CLM4. Our study confirms that SIF has the potential to improve photosynthesis simulation and thereby can play a critical role in improving land surface and carbon cycle models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions, and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO 2 . The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET) and transpiration-based WUE (WUE t , the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO 2 and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO 2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO 2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m −2 mm −1 yr −1 for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO 2 and NDEP. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species’ ranges are complex often exhibiting multidirectional shifts over space and time. Despite the strong fingerprint of recent historical climate change on species’ distributions, biotic factors such as loss of vegetative habitat and the presence of potential competitors constitute important yet often overlooked drivers of range dynamics. Furthermore, short-term changes in environmental conditions can influence the underlying processes of local extinction and local colonization that drive range shifts, yet are rarely considered at broad scales. We used dynamic state-space occupancy models to test multiple hypotheses of the relative importance of major drivers of range shifts of Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) and Blue-winged Warblers ( V. cyanoptera ) between 1983 and 2012 across North America: warming temperatures; habitat changes; and occurrence of congeneric species, used here as proxy for biotic interactions. Dynamic occupancies for both species were most influenced by spatial relative to temporal variation in temperature and habitat. However, temporal variation in temperature anomalies and biotic interactions remained important. The two biotic factors considered, habitat change and biotic interactions, had the largest relative effect on estimated extinction rates followed by abiotic temperature anomalies. For the Golden-winged Warbler, the predicted presence of the Blue-winged Warbler, a hypothesized competitor, most influenced extinction probabilities, contributing to evidence supporting its role in site-level species replacement. Given the overall importance of biotic factors on range-wide dynamic occupancies, their consideration alongside abiotic factors should not be overlooked. Our results suggest that warming compounds the negative effect of habitat loss emphasizing species’ need for habitat to adapt to a changing climate. Notably, even closely related species exhibited individual responses to abiotic and biotic factors considered.

Description: A knowledge of climatic legacies can improve our understanding of how species might change under altered climates and land uses. Ecological clusters of biological soil crust taxa responded differently to climatic legacies. Rainfall and temperature legacies influenced the current distribution of major ecological clusters of biocrust species. Abstract Predicting the distribution of biocrust species, mosses, lichens and liverworts associated with surface soils is difficult, but climatic legacies (changes in climate over the last 20 k years) can improve our prediction of the distribution of biocrust species. To provide empirical support for this hypothesis, we used a combination of network analyses and structural equation modelling to identify the role of climatic legacies in predicting the distribution of ecological clusters formed by species of mosses, lichens and liverworts using data from 282 large sites distributed across 0.6 million km2 of eastern Australia. Two ecological clusters contained 87% of the 120 moss, lichen and liverwort species. Both clusters contained lichen, moss and liverwort species, but were dominated by different families. Sites where the air temperature increased the most over 20k years (positive temperature legacies) were associated with reductions in the relative abundance of species from the lichen (Peltulaceae and Teloschistaceae) and moss (Bryaceae) families (Cluster A species), greater groundstorey plant cover and lower soil pH. Sites where precipitation has increased over the past 20k years (positive precipitation legacy) were associated with increases in the relative abundance of lichen (Cladoniaceae, Lecideaceae and Thelotremataceae) and moss (Pottiaceae) families (Cluster B species) and lower levels of soil pH. Sites where temperatures have increased the most in the past 20k years suppressed the negative effects of plant cover on Cluster B by reducing plant cover. Increased intensity of grazing suppressed the negative effect of soil pH and the positive effect of soil carbon, on the relative abundance of Cluster B taxa. Finally, increasing temperature and precipitation legacies reduced the negative effect of soil pH on Cluster B. Understanding of the importance of climatic legacies improves our ability to predict how biocrust assemblies might respond to ongoing global environmental change associated with increasing land use intensification, increasing temperature and reduced rainfall.

Description: Retraction “Comparison of nitrogen inputs and accumulation in 210Pb‐dated peat cores: Evidence for biological N2‐fixation in Central European peatlands despite decades of atmospheric N pollution” https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14505, by Martin Novak, Melanie A. Vile, Jan Curik, Bohuslava Cejkova, Jiri Barta, Marketa Stepanova, Ivana Jackova, Frantisek Buzek, Leona Bohdalkova, Eva Prechova, Frantisek Veselovsky, Marie Adamova, Ivana Valkova and Arnost Komarek. The above article, first published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) in Global Change Biology, has been retracted by agreement between the authors, the journal Editor‐in‐Chief, Stephen P. Long, and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Since publication of the above article, it was brought to the attention of the authors that the peat accretion rates violate reasonable ranges of peatland C/N/P stoichiometry, placing the quantitative conclusions of the article in serious error. The authors apologize for any inconvenience the publication of this work may have caused our readers. REFERENCE Novak, M., Vile, M. A., Cejkova, B., Barta, J., Stepanova, M., Jackova, I., Buzek, F., Bohdalkova, L., Prechova, E., Veselovsky, F., Adamova, M., Valkova, I., & Komarek, A. (2018). Comparison of nitrogen inputs and accumulation in 210Pb‐dated peat cores: Evidence for biological N2‐fixation in Central European peatlands despite decades of atmospheric N pollution. Global Change Biology.. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14505

Description: Variability in sea level rise (SLR) drivers and responses makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across individual wetlands or wetland types and to develop a holistic perspective on regional SLR response. To improve regional predictions, we developed a model based on wetland elevation, or hypsometry, that augments existing SLR assessments by considering multiple spatial scales, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity. Our approach can inform restoration and adaptation efforts of SLR vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to specific wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.

Description: Increasing population and urban sprawl are causing rapid land use change, and the effect this has on soil nutrient cycles and greenhouse gas budgets is unclear. Fluxes of N2O and CH4 were measured from native forest, pasture and turf grass continuously over two years using an automated chamber system. The fertilized turf increased N2O emissions immediately following establishment, though all land uses were a net sink for CH4. Land use change from native forest to turf grass increased non‐CO2 GWP from a net annual GHG sink of −83 CO2‐e ha−1 year−1 to a source of 245 kg CO2‐e ha−1 year−1. Abstract Increasing population densities and urban sprawl are causing rapid land use change from natural and agricultural ecosystems into smaller, urban residential properties. However, there is still great uncertainty about the effect that urbanization will have on biogeochemical C and N cycles and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We aimed to evaluate how typical urbanization related land use change in subtropical Australia affects soil GHG exchange (N2O and CH4) and the associated global warming potential (GWP). Fluxes were measured from three land uses: native forest, a long‐term pasture, and a turf grass lawn continuously over two years using a high‐resolution automated chamber system. The fertilized turf grass had the highest N2O emissions, dominated by high fluxes 〉100 g N2O‐N day−1 immediately following establishment though decreased to just 0.6 kg N2O‐N ha−1 in the second year. Only minor fluxes occurred in the forest and pasture, with the high aeration of the sandy topsoil limiting N2O emissions while promoting substantial CH4 uptake. Native forest was consistently the strongest CH4 sink (−2.9 kg CH4‐C ha−1 year−1), while the pasture became a short‐term CH4 source after heavy rainfall when the soil reached saturation. On a two‐year average, land use change from native forest to turf grass increased the non‐CO2 GWP from a net annual GHG sink of −83 CO2‐e ha–1 year−1 to a source of 245 kg CO2‐e ha–1 year−1. This study highlights that urbanization can substantially alter soil GHG exchange by altering plant soil water use and by increasing bulk density and inorganic N availability. However, on well‐drained subtropical soils, the impact of urbanization on inter‐annual non‐CO2 GWP of turf grass was low compared to urbanized ecosystems in temperate climates.

Description: This study compares measurements of the greenhouse gas cost of an irrigated and nonirrigated corn–soybean–wheat system in the Midwest US. Irrigation significantly increased soil organic carbon storage in the upper 25 cm, but not by enough to make up for the CO2‐equivalent costs of fossil fuel power, soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), and degassing of supersaturated CO2 and N2O from the groundwater. Groundwater degassing of CO2 and N2O are missing components of previous assessments of the GHG cost of groundwater irrigation; together they were 4% of the irrigated system's total emissions. Abstract Groundwater irrigation of cropland is expanding worldwide with poorly known implications for climate change. This study compares experimental measurements of the net global warming impact of a rainfed versus a groundwater‐irrigated corn (maize)–soybean–wheat, no‐till cropping system in the Midwest US, the region that produces the majority of U.S. corn and soybean. Irrigation significantly increased soil organic carbon (C) storage in the upper 25 cm, but not by enough to make up for the CO2‐equivalent (CO2e) costs of fossil fuel power, soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), and degassing of supersaturated CO2 and N2O from the groundwater. A rainfed reference system had a net mitigating effect of −13.9 (±31) g CO2e m−2 year−1, but with irrigation at an average rate for the region, the irrigated system contributed to global warming with net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 27.1 (±32) g CO2e m−2 year−1. Compared to the rainfed system, the irrigated system had 45% more GHG emissions and 7% more C sequestration. The irrigation‐associated increase in soil N2O and fossil fuel emissions contributed 18% and 9%, respectively, to the system's total emissions in an average irrigation year. Groundwater degassing of CO2 and N2O are missing components of previous assessments of the GHG cost of groundwater irrigation; together they were 4% of the irrigated system's total emissions. The irrigated system's net impact normalized by crop yield (GHG intensity) was +0.04 (±0.006) kg CO2e kg−1 yield, close to that of the rainfed system, which was −0.03 (±0.002) kg CO2e kg−1 yield. Thus, the increased crop yield resulting from irrigation can ameliorate overall GHG emissions if intensification by irrigation prevents land conversion emissions elsewhere, although the expansion of irrigation risks depletion of local water resources.

Description: This study examined the difference of vegetation indices (VIs), evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary production (GPP), and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) during 2000–2010 between pure grasslands (PG) and juniper‐encroached grasslands (JEG). The changes of GPP and ET for grasslands with different proportions of juniper encroachment (JWPE) were also assessed. The results suggested mean annual GPP and ET were ~55% and ~45% higher when grasslands were completely converted into juniper forests under contemporary climate during 2000–2010. The enhancement of annual GPP and ET for grasslands with JWPE varied over years in association with the moisture conditions. Abstract Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands has been occurring globally and may be accelerated by climate change in the future. This land cover change is expected to alter the carbon and water cycles, but it remains uncertain how and to what extent the carbon and water cycles may change with WPE into grasslands under current climate. In this study, we examined the difference of vegetation indices (VIs), evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary production (GPP), and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) during 2000–2010 between grasslands and juniper‐encroached grasslands. We also quantitatively assessed the changes of GPP and ET for grasslands with different proportions of juniper encroachment (JWPE). Our results suggested that JWPE increased the GPP, ET, greenness‐related VIs, and SIF of grasslands. Mean annual GPP and ET were, respectively, ~55% and ~45% higher when grasslands were completely converted into juniper forests under contemporary climate during 2000–2010. The enhancement of annual GPP and ET for grasslands with JWPE varied over years ranging from about +20% GPP (~+30% for ET) in the wettest year (2007) to about twice as much GPP (~+55% for ET) in the severe drought year (2006) relative to grasslands without encroachment. Additionally, the differences in GPP and ET showed significant seasonal dynamics. During the peak growing season (May–August), GPP and ET for grasslands with JWPE were ~30% and ~40% higher on average. This analysis provided insights into how and to what degree carbon and water cycles were impacted by JWPE, which is vital to understanding how JWPE and ecological succession will affect the regional and global carbon and water budgets in the future.

Description: The body size was compared between adults of Polionemobius mikado collected from wide ranges of latitudes in Japan in recent years and those collected four decades ago, and the results showed that the body size had decreased significantly at the middle latitude. The length of the growing season at the middle latitude in recent years was comparable to that at lower latitudes four decades ago, where P. mikado populations were bivoltine. These findings suggested that the latitudinal range suitable for the bivoltine life cycle has expanded northward over the last four decades because of climate warming. Abstract Recent climate warming has affected some life‐history traits of insects, including voltinism and body size. The magnitude of changes in these traits may differ latitudinally within a species because of the differing lengths of season available for growth. The present study aims to estimate the change in voltinism of the lawn ground cricket, Polionemobius mikado (Shiraki) (Orthoptera: Trigonidiidae), over the last four decades by comparing the body size between adults collected from a wide range of latitudes in Japan in recent years (2015–2017) and those collected four decades ago (1969–1976). The body size of adults collected in recent years showed a latitudinal saw‐tooth cline, in the same way as body size did four decades ago, and the cline shifted northward over the last four decades: In 2015–2017, the body size decreased slightly with increasing latitude from 31°N to 36°N, and then increased to 40°N, and again decreased from 40°N to 44°N. Comparison of the body size between recent years and four decades ago revealed that the body size has decreased significantly at the middle latitudes (36–40°N), suggesting that the proportion of smaller bivoltine individuals there has increased over the last four decades. The sum of effective temperatures for postdiapause embryonic development at around 36°N in recent years was comparable to that at 31–35°N four decades ago, at which P. mikado populations were bivoltine. Taken together, these findings suggested that the latitudinal range suitable for the bivoltine life cycle of P. mikado has expanded northward over the last four decades because of climate warming. This is the first report that shows that a decrease in body size can be caused by climate warming via an increase in voltinism.

Description: Landscape fire is a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. We undertook an extensive field survey across Australia to measure rates of biomass consumption by fire. We found that in a typical year, fire consumes the equivalent of about 11% of the carbon captured by vegetation across Australia. In the far north, rates of biomass consumption were about 20 times that in the far south. Our results emphasise that fire management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should focus on fire‐prone tropical savanna landscapes, where the vast majority of fire activity occurs. Abstract Landscape fire is a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. Predicting biomass consumption by fire at large spatial scales is essential to understanding carbon dynamics and hence how fire management can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase ecosystem carbon storage. An Australia‐wide field‐based survey (at 113 locations) across large‐scale macroecological gradients (climate, productivity and fire regimes) enabled estimation of how biomass combustion by surface fire directly affects continental‐scale carbon budgets. In terms of biomass consumption, we found clear trade‐offs between the frequency and severity of surface fires. In temperate southern Australia, characterised by less frequent and more severe fires, biomass consumed per fire was typically very high. In contrast, surface fires in the tropical savannas of northern Australia were very frequent but less severe, with much lower consumption of biomass per fire (about a quarter of that in the far south). When biomass consumption was expressed on an annual basis, biomass consumed was far greater in the tropical savannas (〉20 times that of the far south). This trade‐off is also apparent in the ratio of annual carbon consumption to net primary production (NPP). Across Australia's naturally vegetated land area, annual carbon consumption by surface fire is equivalent to about 11% of NPP, with a sharp contrast between temperate southern Australia (6%) and tropical northern Australia (46%). Our results emphasise that fire management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should focus on fire prone tropical savanna landscapes, where the vast bulk of biomass consumption occurs globally. In these landscapes, grass biomass is a key driver of frequency, intensity and combustion completeness of surface fires, and management actions that increase grass biomass are likely to lead to increases in greenhouse gas emissions from savanna fires.

Description: We investigated the bacterial community response to a decade‐long preindustrial‐to‐future CO2 gradient (250–500 ppm) among three contrasting soil types using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. We found that bacterial communities may be largely unresponsive to indirect effects of CO2 enrichment through plants. Instead, bacterial communities are strongly regulated by edaphic conditions, presumably because soil differences create distinct environmental niches for bacteria. Abstract Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration directly stimulates plant productivity and affects nutrient dynamics in the soil. However, the influence of CO2 enrichment on soil bacterial communities remains elusive, likely due to their complex interactions with a wide range of plant and soil properties. Here, we investigated the bacterial community response to a decade long preindustrial‐to‐future CO2 gradient (250–500 ppm) among three contrasting soil types using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. In addition, we examined the effect of seasonal variation and plant species composition on bacterial communities. We found that Shannon index (H’) and Faith's phylogenetic diversity (PD) did not change in response to the CO2 gradient (R2 = 0.01, p 〉 0.05). CO2 gradient and season also had a negligible effect on overall community structure, although silty clay soil communities were better structured on a CO2 gradient (p 〈 0.001) among three soils. Similarly, CO2 gradient had no significant effect on the relative abundance of different phyla. However, we observed soil‐specific variation of CO2 effects in a few individual families. For example, the abundance of Pirellulaceae family decreased linearly with CO2 gradient, but only in sandy loam soils. Conversely, the abundance of Micromonosporaceae and Gaillaceae families increased with CO2 gradient in clay soils. Soil water content (SWC) and nutrient properties were the key environmental constraints shaping bacterial community structure, one manifestation of which was a decline in bacterial diversity with increasing SWC. Furthermore, the impact of plant species composition on community structure was secondary to the strong influence of soil properties. Taken together, our findings indicate that bacterial communities may be largely unresponsive to indirect effects of CO2 enrichment through plants. Instead, bacterial communities are strongly regulated by edaphic conditions, presumably because soil differences create distinct environmental niches for bacteria.

Description: The rapid measurement of trace gas exchanges in coastal plant communities is necessary for establishing their sensitivity to highly dynamic physical controlling factors. We demonstrated and validated automated soil‐flux chamber measurement methods for unattended hourly collection of CO2, CH4, and N2O data including tidally flooded periods. Deployment on an eastern Pacific salt marsh for a lunar month in winter showed that storm surge conditions during the day and night significantly influenced the magnitude and frequency of CO2 and CH4 flux (p 〈 0.001) but did not affect N2O flux. We modeled CO2‐equivalent flux using sustained‐flux global potentials and increased storm surge frequency scenarios, 2020 to 2100. Abstract The physical controlling factors on coastal plant communities are among the most dynamic of known ecosystems, but climate change alters coastal surface and subsurface hydrologic regimes, which makes rapid measurement of greenhouse gas fluxes critical. Greenhouse gas exchange rates in these terrestrial–aquatic ecosystems are highly variable worldwide with climate, soil type, plant community, and weather. Therefore, increasing data collection and availability should be a priority. Here, we demonstrate and validate physical and analytical modifications to automated soil‐flux chamber measurement methods for unattended use in tidally driven wetlands, allowing the high‐frequency capture of storm surge and day/night dynamics. Winter CO2 flux from Sarcocornia perennis marsh to the atmosphere was significantly greater during the day (2.8 mmol m−2 hr−1) than the night (2.2 mmol m−2 hr−1; p 〈 0.001), while CH4 was significantly greater during the night (0.16 μmol m−2 hr−1) than the day (−0.13 μmol m−2 hr−1; p = 0.04). The magnitude of CO2 flux during the day and the frequency of CH4 flux were reduced during a surge (p 〈 0.001). Surge did not significantly affect N2O flux, which without non‐detects was normally distributed around −24.2 nmol m−2 hr−1. Analysis with sustained‐flux global potentials and increased storm surge frequency scenarios, 2020 to 2100, suggested that the marsh in winter remains an atmospheric CO2 source. The modeled results showed an increased flux of CO2 to the atmosphere, while in soil, the uptake of CH4 increased and N2O uptake decreased. We present analytical routines to correctly capture gas flux curves in dynamic overland flooding conditions and to flag data that are below detection limits or from unobserved chamber‐malfunction situations. Storm surge is an important phenomenon globally, but event‐driven, episodic factors can be poorly estimated by infrequent sampling. Wider deployment of this system would permit inclusion of surge events in greenhouse gas estimates.

Description: Coastal “blue carbon” ecosystems (mangroves, saltmarshes, seagrasses) play an important role in the global carbon cycle but are increasingly impacted by the introduction of invasive species. In a global meta‐analysis of previously published data, we show that introduced plant species increase the amount of carbon stored in blue carbon ecosystems. However, introduced animals and algae reduce blue carbon storage. This study will enable managers and conservationists to make informed decisions with regard to invasions and carbon storage benefits. Abstract Human‐caused shifts in carbon (C) cycling and biotic exchange are defining characteristics of the Anthropocene. In marine systems, saltmarsh, seagrass, and mangrove habitats—collectively known as “blue carbon” and coastal vegetated habitats (CVHs)—are a leading sequester of global C and increasingly impacted by exotic species invasions. There is growing interest in the effect of invasion by a diverse pool of exotic species on C storage and the implications for ecosystem‐based management of these systems. In a global meta‐analysis, we synthesized data from 104 papers that provided 345 comparisons of habitat‐level response (plant and soil C storage) from paired invaded and uninvaded sites. We found an overall net effect of significantly higher C pools in invaded CVHs amounting to 40% (±16%) higher C storage than uninvaded habitat, but effects differed among types of invaders. Elevated C storage was driven by blue C‐forming plant invaders (saltmarsh grasses, seagrasses, and mangrove trees) that intensify biomass per unit area, extend and elevate coastal wetlands, and convert coastal mudflats into C‐rich vegetated habitat. Introduced animal and structurally distinct primary producers had significant negative effects on C pools, driven by herbivory, trampling, and native species displacement. The role of invasion manifested differently among habitat types, with significant C storage increases in saltmarshes, decreases in seagrass, and no significant effect in mangroves. There were also counter‐directional effects by the same species in different systems or locations, which underscores the importance of combining data mining with analyses of mean effect sizes in meta‐analyses. Our study provides a quantitative basis for understanding differential effects of invasion on blue C habitats and will inform conservation strategies that need to balance management decisions involving invasion, C storage, and a range of other marine biodiversity and habitat functions in these coastal systems.

Description: Housing much of Earth’s carbon and biodiversity, tropical forests are, arguably, our planet’s most important ecosystems. Yet, humanity is destroying tropical primary forests at an alarming rate. Mitigating this is the expansion of secondary forests (SFs). However, SF conservation value is controversial and hotly debated. We show that SFs can accumulate large amounts of carbon and support many forest‐dependent species but that they do not attain the characteristics of undisturbed primary forests (UPFs), even after several decades of succession. As such, SFs are not substitutes for UPFs. Abstract Secondary forests (SFs) regenerating on previously deforested land account for large, expanding areas of tropical forest cover. Given that tropical forests rank among Earth’s most important reservoirs of carbon and biodiversity, SFs play an increasingly pivotal role in the carbon cycle and as potential habitat for forest biota. Nevertheless, their capacity to regain the biotic attributes of undisturbed primary forests (UPFs) remains poorly understood. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of SF recovery, using extensive tropical biodiversity, biomass, and environmental datasets. These data, collected in 59 naturally regenerating SFs and 30 co‐located UPFs in the eastern Amazon, cover 〉1,600 large‐ and small‐stemmed plant, bird, and dung beetles species and a suite of forest structure, landscape context, and topoedaphic predictors. After up to 40 years of regeneration, the SFs we surveyed showed a high degree of biodiversity resilience, recovering, on average among taxa, 88% and 85% mean UPF species richness and composition, respectively. Across the first 20 years of succession, the period for which we have accurate SF age data, biomass recovered at 1.2% per year, equivalent to a carbon uptake rate of 2.25 Mg/ha per year, while, on average, species richness and composition recovered at 2.6% and 2.3% per year, respectively. For all taxonomic groups, biomass was strongly associated with SF species distributions. However, other variables describing habitat complexity—canopy cover and understory stem density—were equally important occurrence predictors for most taxa. Species responses to biomass revealed a successional transition at approximately 75 Mg/ha, marking the influx of high‐conservation‐value forest species. Overall, our results show that naturally regenerating SFs can accumulate substantial amounts of carbon and support many forest species. However, given that the surveyed SFs failed to return to a typical UPF state, SFs are not substitutes for UPFs.

Description: This article examines the projected impacts of cropland expansion on both carbon storage and biodiversity if current trends continue. It focuses on biodiversity hotspots and the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites for biodiversity as well as both soil and standing vegetation carbon stocks. Results are compared on both a regional and national level identifying priority areas where impacts on both ecosystem services are likely to be the greatest. Abstract Cropland expansion threatens biodiversity by driving habitat loss and impacts carbon storage through loss of biomass and soil carbon (C). There is a growing concern land‐use change (LUC) to cropland will result in a loss of ecosystem function and various ecosystem services essential for human health and well‐being. This paper examines projections of future cropland expansion from an integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 under a “business as usual” scenario and the direct impact on both biodiversity and C storage. By focusing on biodiversity hotspots and Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites, loss of habitat as well as potential impacts on endangered and critically endangered species are explored. With regards to C storage, the impact on both soil and vegetation standing C stocks are examined. We show that if projected trends are realized, there are likely to be severe consequences for these resources. Substantial loss of habitat in biodiversity hotspots such as Indo‐Burma, and the Philippians is expected as well as 50% of species in AZE sites losing part of their last remaining habitat. An estimated 13.7% of vegetation standing C stocks and 4.6% of soil C stocks are also projected to be lost in areas affected with Brazil and Mexico being identified as priorities in terms of both biodiversity and C losses from cropland expansion. Changes in policy to regulate projected cropland expansion, and increased measures to protect natural resources, are highly likely to be required to prevent these biodiversity and C losses in the future.

Description: This review analyses present knowledge on plant sensing and signaling mechanisms under conditions of climate change. Plant cells are endowed with environmental and stress sensors and internal signals that can act as potential mechanisms of climate change sensing. However, optimal functioning of existing sensors, optimal integration of additive constraints and signals, or stress memory processes can be hampered by conflicting interferences between climate change‐related factors. Analysis of these contrasted situations emphasizes the need for future research on the diversity and robustness of plant signaling mechanisms under climate change conditions. Abstract Climate change reshapes the physiology and development of organisms through phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic modifications, and genetic adaptation. Under evolutionary pressures of the sessile lifestyle, plants possess efficient systems of phenotypic plasticity and acclimation to environmental conditions. Molecular analysis, especially through omics approaches, of these primary lines of environmental adjustment in the context of climate change has revealed the underlying biochemical and physiological mechanisms, thus characterizing the links between phenotypic plasticity and climate change responses. The efficiency of adaptive plasticity under climate change indeed depends on the realization of such biochemical and physiological mechanisms, but the importance of sensing and signaling mechanisms that can integrate perception of environmental cues and transduction into physiological responses is often overlooked. Recent progress opens the possibility of considering plant phenotypic plasticity and responses to climate change through the perspective of environmental sensing and signaling. This review aims to analyze present knowledge on plant sensing and signaling mechanisms and discuss how their structural and functional characteristics lead to resilience or hypersensitivity under conditions of climate change. Plant cells are endowed with arrays of environmental and stress sensors and with internal signals that act as molecular integrators of the multiple constraints of climate change, thus giving rise to potential mechanisms of climate change sensing. Moreover, mechanisms of stress‐related information propagation lead to stress memory and acquired stress tolerance that could withstand different scenarios of modifications of stress frequency and intensity. However, optimal functioning of existing sensors, optimal integration of additive constraints and signals, or memory processes can be hampered by conflicting interferences between novel combinations and novel changes in intensity and duration of climate change‐related factors. Analysis of these contrasted situations emphasizes the need for future research on the diversity and robustness of plant signaling mechanisms under climate change conditions.

Description: Glacier retreat is known to threaten the biodiversity of freshwaters worldwide, but little is understood of the effects on algal communities that play key roles in primary production, biogeochemical cycling and the resource base of alpine freshwater food webs. This research investigated the biodiversity of benthic diatom assemblages in rivers of the European Alps to determine their response to reducing catchment glacier cover. Diatom α‐diversity and density increased but β‐diversity was reduced. Six conservation Red‐List taxa may require reclassification as they were found exclusively ≥28% glacier cover and are therefore under threat from ongoing glacier loss. Abstract Climate change poses a considerable threat to the biodiversity of high altitude ecosystems worldwide, including cold‐water river systems that are responding rapidly to a shrinking cryosphere. Most recent research has demonstrated the severe vulnerability of river invertebrates to glacier retreat but effects upon other aquatic groups remain poorly quantified. Using new data sets from the European Alps, we show significant responses to declining glacier cover for diatoms, which play a critical functional role as freshwater primary producers. Specifically, diatom α‐diversity and density in rivers presently fed by glaciers will increase with future deglaciation, yet β‐diversity within and between sites will reduce because declining glacier influence will lower the spatiotemporal variability of glacier cover and its associated habitat heterogeneity. Changes in diatom assemblage composition as glacier cover declined were associated strongly with increasing riverbed stability and water temperature. At the species level, diatoms showed a gradation of responses; for example, Eunotia trinacria, found exclusively at river sites with high (≥52%) catchment glacier cover, may be affected negatively by ice loss. Conversely, seven taxa confined to sites with no glacier cover, including Gomphonema calcareum, stand to benefit. Nineteen (22%) taxa were noted as threatened, endangered, rare or decreasing on the Red List of Algae for Germany, with most at sites ≤26% glacier cover, meaning further ice loss may benefit these diatoms. However, six taxa found only in rivers ≥28% glacier cover may require reclassification of their Red List conservation status, as this habitat is threatened by deglaciation. Our identification of clear links between decreasing glacier cover and river diatom biodiversity suggests there could be significant reorganization of river ecosystems with deglaciation, for example, through alterations to primary production, biogeochemical cycles, and the shifting resource base of alpine freshwater food webs which lack significant allochthonous energy inputs.

Description: Rapidly increasing temperatures across the Arctic are thawing permafrost soils and changing the way carbon and nutrients are delivered from upland areas to surface waters such as rivers and lakes. Analysis of long‐term data from Arctic Alaska show increases in stream water alkalinity and cation concentrations consistent with signatures of permafrost thaw. Changes are also documented for concentrations of nitrate (+),dissolved organic carbon (−), and total phosphorus (−), as well as δ13C isotope values of aquatic invertebrates (−). These changes show that warming temperatures and thawing permafrost are leading to shifts in the supply of carbon and nutrients to aquatic ecosystems and consequently changing resources that support aquatic food webs. Abstract Rapidly, increasing air temperatures across the Arctic are thawing permafrost and exposing vast quantities of organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus to microbial processing. Shifts in the absolute and relative supplies of these elements will likely alter patterns of ecosystem productivity and change the way carbon and nutrients are delivered from upland areas to surface waters such as rivers and lakes. The ultra‐oligotrophic nature of surface waters across the Arctic renders these ecosystems particularly susceptible to changes in productivity and food web dynamics as permafrost thaw alters terrestrial‐aquatic linkages. The objectives of this study were to evaluate decadal‐scale patterns in surface water chemistry and assess potential implications of changing water chemistry to benthic organic matter and aquatic food webs. Data were collected from the upper Kuparuk River on the North Slope of Alaska by the U.S. National Science Foundation's Long‐Term Ecological Research program during 1978–2014. Analyses of these data show increases in stream water alkalinity and cation concentrations consistent with signatures of permafrost thaw. Changes are also documented for discharge‐corrected nitrate concentrations (+), discharge‐corrected dissolved organic carbon concentrations (−), total phosphorus concentrations (−), and δ13C isotope values of aquatic invertebrate consumers (−). These changes show that warming temperatures and thawing permafrost in the upland environment are leading to shifts in the supply of carbon and nutrients available to surface waters and consequently changing resources that support aquatic food webs. This demonstrates that physical, geochemical, and biological changes associated with warming permafrost are fundamentally altering linkages between upland and aquatic ecosystems in rapidly changing arctic environments.

Description: We modeled the regional carbon balance of sub‐Arctic tundra over a decade in a region with lakes, wetlands, and uplands using process‐based biogeochemical models. Interannual variability over the decade was relatively small in comparison with variability among the land cover types. Wetlands were hot spots for C cycling in this sub‐Arctic tundra ecosystem. Capturing the relative fraction of uplands versus wetlands was key to determining the net regional C balance at this and other Arctic tundra sites. Abstract Across the Arctic, the net ecosystem carbon (C) balance of tundra ecosystems is highly uncertain due to substantial temporal variability of C fluxes and to landscape heterogeneity. We modeled both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes for the dominant land cover types in a ~100‐km2 sub‐Arctic tundra region in northeast European Russia for the period of 2006–2015 using process‐based biogeochemical models. Modeled net annual CO2 fluxes ranged from −300 g C m−2 year−1 [net uptake] in a willow fen to 3 g C m−2 year−1 [net source] in dry lichen tundra. Modeled annual CH4 emissions ranged from −0.2 to 22.3 g C m−2 year−1 at a peat plateau site and a willow fen site, respectively. Interannual variability over the decade was relatively small (20%–25%) in comparison with variability among the land cover types (150%). Using high‐resolution land cover classification, the region was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 across most land cover types but a net source of CH4 to the atmosphere due to high emissions from permafrost‐free fens. Using a lower resolution for land cover classification resulted in a 20%–65% underestimation of regional CH4 flux relative to high‐resolution classification and smaller (10%) overestimation of regional CO2 uptake due to the underestimation of wetland area by 60%. The relative fraction of uplands versus wetlands was key to determining the net regional C balance at this and other Arctic tundra sites because wetlands were hot spots for C cycling in Arctic tundra ecosystems.

Description: Ecological theory illustrates that current null model approaches do not promote mechanistic understanding of community‐ and ecosystem‐level effects of multiple environmental changes. I present an alternative framework that makes a clear distinction between two different kinds of drivers (resource ratio shifts and multiple stressors) and integrates both by incorporating stressor effects into resource uptake theory. Abstract Understanding the joint effect of multiple drivers of environmental change is a key scientific challenge. The dominant approach today is to compare observed joint effects with predictions from various types of null models. Drivers are said to combine synergistically (antagonistically) when their observed joint effect is larger (smaller) than that predicted by the null model. Here, I argue that this approach does not promote understanding of effects on important community‐ and ecosystem‐level variables such as biodiversity and ecosystem function. I use ecological theory to show that different mechanisms can lead to the same deviation from a null model's prediction. Inversely, I show that the same mechanism can lead to different deviations from a null model's prediction. These examples illustrate that it is not possible to make strong mechanistic inferences from null models. Next, I present an alternative framework to study such effects. This framework makes a clear distinction between two different kinds of drivers (resource ratio shifts and multiple stressors) and integrates both by incorporating stressor effects into resource uptake theory. I show that this framework can advance understanding because of three reasons. First, it forces formalization of “multiple stressors,” using factors that describe the number and kind of stressors, their selectivity and dynamic behaviour, and the initial trait diversity and tolerance among species. Second, it produces testable predictions on how these factors affect biodiversity and ecosystem function, alone and in combination with resource ratio shifts. Third, it can fail in informative ways. That is, its assumptions are clear, so that different kinds of deviations between predictions and observed effects can guide new experiments and theory improvement. I conclude that this framework will more effectively progress understanding of global change effects on communities and ecosystems than does the current practice of null model testing.

Description: Abstract Increasing both crop productivity and the tolerance of crops to abiotic and biotic stresses is a major challenge for global food security in our rapidly changing climate. For the first time, we show how the spatial variation and severity of tropospheric ozone effects on yield compare with effects of other stresses on a global scale, and discuss mitigating actions against the negative effects of ozone. We show that the sensitivity to ozone declines in the order soybean 〉 wheat 〉 maize 〉 rice, with genotypic variation in response being most pronounced for soybean and rice. Based on stomatal uptake, we estimate that ozone (mean of 2010–2012) reduces global yield annually by 12.4%, 7.1%, 4.4% and 6.1% for soybean, wheat, rice and maize, respectively (the “ozone yield gaps”), adding up to 227 Tg of lost yield. Our modelling shows that the highest ozone‐induced production losses for soybean are in North and South America whilst for wheat they are in India and China, for rice in parts of India, Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and for maize in China and the United States. Crucially, we also show that the same areas are often also at risk of high losses from pests and diseases, heat stress and to a lesser extent aridity and nutrient stress. In a solution‐focussed analysis of these results, we provide a crop ideotype with tolerance of multiple stresses (including ozone) and describe how ozone effects could be included in crop breeding programmes. We also discuss altered crop management approaches that could be applied to reduce ozone impacts in the shorter term. Given the severity of ozone effects on staple food crops in areas of the world that are also challenged by other stresses, we recommend increased attention to the benefits that could be gained from addressing the ozone yield gap.

Description: Biological responses to multiple stressors are often complex and are not easily generalizable. We used data from 494 European lakes, categorized into eight types to test the generality of the widely hypothesized synergistic effect of temperature and eutrophication on cyanobacterial abundance and the effect of prolonged periods of drought as an additional stressor. The abundance of cyanobacteria was explained by different combinations of stressors in each lake type and the hypothesized synergy was only detected in two lake types, indicating that a one‐size fits‐all approach is not appropriate for effectively managing the future risk of cyanobacterial blooms to climate change. Abstract Blooms of cyanobacteria are a current threat to global water security that is expected to increase in the future because of increasing nutrient enrichment, increasing temperature and extreme precipitation in combination with prolonged drought. However, the responses to multiple stressors, such as those above, are often complex and there is contradictory evidence as to how they may interact. Here we used broad scale data from 494 lakes in central and northern Europe, to assess how cyanobacteria respond to nutrients (phosphorus), temperature and water retention time in different types of lakes. Eight lake types were examined based on factorial combinations of major factors that determine phytoplankton composition and sensitivity to nutrients: alkalinity (low and medium‐high), colour (clear and humic) and mixing intensity (polymictic and stratified). In line with expectations, cyanobacteria increased with temperature and retention time in five of the eight lake types. Temperature effects were greatest in lake types situated at higher latitudes, suggesting that lakes currently not at risk could be affected by warming in the future. However, the sensitivity of cyanobacteria to temperature, retention time and phosphorus varied among lake types highlighting the complex responses of lakes to multiple stressors. For example, in polymictic, medium‐high alkalinity, humic lakes cyanobacteria biovolume was positively explained by retention time and a synergy between TP and temperature, while in polymictic, medium‐high alkalinity, clear lakes only retention time was identified as an explanatory variable. These results show that, although climate change will need to be accounted for when managing the risk of cyanobacteria in lakes, a “one‐size fits‐all” approach is not appropriate. When forecasting the response of cyanobacteria to future environmental change, including changes caused by climate and local management, it will be important to take this differential sensitivity of lakes into account.

Description: Abstract Climate and land‐use change are the major drivers of global biodiversity loss. Their effects are particularly acute for wide‐ranging consumers, but little is known about how these factors interact to affect the abundance of large carnivores and their herbivore prey. We analyzed population densities of a primary and secondary consumer (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus, and mountain lion, Puma concolor) across a climatic gradient in western North America by combining satellite‐based maps of plant productivity with estimates of animal abundance and foraging area derived from Global Positioning Systems telemetry data (GPS). Mule deer density exhibited a positive, linear relationship with plant productivity (r2 = 0.58), varying by a factor of 18 across the climate‐vegetation gradient (range: 38–697 individuals/100 km2). Mountain lion home range size decreased in response to increasing primary productivity and consequent changes in the abundance of their herbivore prey (range: 20–450 km2). This pattern resulted in a strong, positive association between plant productivity and mountain lion density (r2 = 0.67). Despite varying densities, the ratio of prey to predator remained constant across the climatic gradient (mean ± SE = 363 ± 29 mule deer/mountain lion), suggesting that the determinacy of the effect of primary productivity on consumer density was conserved across trophic levels. As droughts and longer term climate changes reduce the suitability of marginal habitats, consumer home ranges will expand in order for individuals to meet basic nutritional requirements. These changes portend decreases in the abundance of large‐bodied, wide‐ranging wildlife through climatically driven reductions in carrying capacity, as well as increased human–wildlife interactions stemming from anthropogenic land use and habitat fragmentation.

Description: The persistence of many species under climate change will depend on our ability to identify and protect areas that facilitate dispersal to newly climatically suitable habitat. We used centrality metrics to identify climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided non‐analogous climates. Paths were funneled along north‐south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlap, are distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Abstract As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede movement. While many climate adaptation strategies focus on identifying refugia, this study is the first to characterize areas which merit protection for their role in promoting climate connectivity at a continental extent. We identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape. The distribution of connectivity areas was influenced by climatic and topographic factors at multiple spatial scales. Results were robust to uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arising from differing emissions scenarios and general circulation models, but sensitive to analysis extent and assumptions concerning dispersal behavior and maximum dispersal distance. Paths were funneled along north‐south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlapped, were distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Existing protected areas with high connectivity values were found in southern Mexico, the southwestern US, and western and arctic Canada and Alaska. Ecoregions within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Great Plains, eastern temperate forests, high Arctic, and western Canadian Cordillera hold important climate connectivity areas which merit increased conservation focus due to anthropogenic pressures or current low levels of protection. Our coarse‐filter climate‐type‐based results complement and contextualize species‐specific analyses and add a missing dimension to climate adaptation planning by identifying landscape features which promote connectivity among refugia.

Description: For aquatic organisms, variation in the ability to tolerate high temperatures and low oxygen levels is likely to influence resilience to climate change. Here, we use populations of killifish to show that naturally occurring variations in upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance have genetic bases, and that these two traits are not functionally or genetically correlated. This genetic variation provides the material needed for the action of natural selection, but the lack of trait association could limit rapid adaptation to combined stressors. However, this lack of association potentially provides flexibility to fine‐tune adaptive responses to specific local conditions. Abstract The resilience of organisms to climate change through adaptive evolution is dependent on the extent of genetically based variation in key phenotypic traits and the nature of genetic associations between them. For aquatic animals, upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are likely to be a important determinants of sensitivity to climate change. To determine the genetic basis of these traits and to detect associations between them, we compared naturally occurring populations of two subspecies of Atlantic killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus, that differ in both thermal and hypoxia tolerance. Multilocus association mapping demonstrated that 47 and 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explained 43.4% and 51.9% of variation in thermal and hypoxia tolerance, respectively, suggesting that genetic mechanisms underlie a substantial proportion of variation in each trait. However, no explanatory SNPs were shared between traits, and upper thermal tolerance varied approximately linearly with latitude, whereas hypoxia tolerance exhibited a steep phenotypic break across the contact zone between the subspecies. These results suggest that upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are neither phenotypically correlated nor genetically associated, and thus that rates of adaptive change in these traits can be independently fine‐tuned by natural selection. This modularity of important traits can underpin the evolvability of organisms to complex future environmental change.

Description: This letter deals with the critique by Lefevre, McKenzie, and Nilsson (2017, 2018) of the use of Gill‐Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) to explain observed and predict further decreases of the maximum body size of fish under warming.

Description: Abstract Extracellular enzymes catalyze rate‐limiting steps in soil organic matter decomposition, and their activities (EEAs) play a key role in determining soil respiration (SR). Both EEAs and SR are highly sensitive to temperature, but their responses to climate warming remain poorly understood. Here, we present a meta‐analysis on the response of soil cellulase and ligninase activities and SR to warming, synthesizing data from 56 studies. We found that warming significantly enhanced ligninase activity by 21.4% but had no effect on cellulase activity. Increases in ligninase activity were positively correlated with changes in SR, while no such relationship was found for cellulase. The warming response of ligninase activity was more closely related to the responses of SR than a wide range of environmental and experimental methodological factors. Furthermore, warming effects on ligninase activity increased with experiment duration. These results suggest that soil microorganisms sustain long‐term increases in SR with warming by gradually increasing the degradation of the recalcitrant carbon pool.

Description: Abstract Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combined with limited understanding about how weather conditions influence restoration outcomes, and increasing recognition that one‐time seeding approaches can fail if they do not occur during appropriate plant establishment conditions. The sagebrush biome, which once covered over 620,000 km2 of western North America, is a prime example of a pressing dryland restoration challenge for which restoration success has been variable. We analyzed field data on Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) restoration collected at 771 plots in 177 wildfire sites across its western range, and used process‐based ecohydrological modeling to identify factors leading to its establishment. Our results indicate big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. In particular, the amount of winter snowpack, but not total precipitation, helped explain the availability of spring soil moisture and restoration success. We also find considerable interannual variability in the probability of sagebrush establishment. Adaptive management strategies that target seeding during cool, wet years or mitigate effects of variability through repeated seeding may improve the likelihood of successful restoration in dryland ecosystems. Given consistent projections of increasing temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing weather variability throughout midlatitude drylands, weather‐centric adaptive management approaches to restoration will be increasingly important for dryland restoration success.

Description: In the region around the Dumont d'Urville research station in Antarcica, when sea ice covers approximately 20% of the Adélie penguins’ foraging area, we found that breeding success reaches a peak, and that most diving parameters reach an optimum for similar sea‐ice conditions, suggesting that sea ice affects the reproductive performance of Adélie penguins through its effects on diving activity. Abstract The Southern Ocean is currently experiencing major environmental changes, including in sea‐ice cover. Such changes strongly influence ecosystem structure and functioning and affect the survival and reproduction of predators such as seabirds. These effects are likely mediated by reduced availability of food resources. As such, seabirds are reliable eco‐indicators of environmental conditions in the Antarctic region. Here, based on 9 years of sea‐ice data, we found that the breeding success of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) reaches a peak at intermediate sea‐ice cover (ca. 20%). We further examined the effects of sea‐ice conditions on the foraging activity of penguins, measured at multiple scales from individual dives to foraging trips. Analysis of temporal organisation of dives, including fractal and bout analyses, revealed an increasingly consistent behaviour during years with extensive sea‐ice cover. The relationship between several dive parameters and sea‐ice cover in the foraging area appears to be quadratic. In years of low and high sea‐ice cover, individuals adjusted their diving effort by generally diving deeper, more frequently and by resting at the surface between dives for shorter periods of time than in years with intermediate sea‐ice cover. Our study therefore suggests that sea‐ice cover is likely to affect the reproductive performance of Adélie penguins through its effects on foraging behaviour, as breeding success and most diving parameters share a common optimum. Some years, however, deviated from this general trend, suggesting that other factors (e.g. precipitation during the breeding season) might sometimes become preponderant over the sea‐ice effects on breeding and foraging performance. Our study highlights the value of monitoring fitness parameters and individual behaviour concomitantly over the long‐term to better characterize optimal environmental conditions and potential resilience of wildlife. Such an approach is crucial if we want to anticipate the effects of environmental change on Antarctic penguin populations.

Description: Abstract Human land use causes major changes in species abundance and composition, yet native and exotic species can exhibit different responses to land use change. Native populations generally decline in human‐impacted habitats while exotic species often benefit. In this study, we assessed the effects of human land use on exotic and native reptile diversity, including functional diversity, which relates to the range of habitat use strategies in biotic communities. We surveyed 114 reptile communities from localities that varied in habitat structure and human impact level on two Caribbean islands, and calculated species richness, overall abundance, and evenness for every plot. Functional diversity indices were calculated using published trait data, which enabled us to detect signs of trait filtering associated with impacted habitats. Our results show that environmental variation among sampling plots was explained by two Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ordination axes related to habitat structure (i.e., forest or nonforest) and human impact level (i.e., addition of man‐made constructions such as roads and buildings). Several diversity indices were significantly correlated with the two PCA axes, but exotic and native species showed opposing responses. Native species reached the highest abundance in forests, while exotic species were absent in this habitat. Human impact was associated with an increase in exotic abundance and species richness, while native species showed no significant associations. Functional diversity was highest in nonforested environments on both islands, and further increased on St. Martin with the establishment of functionally unique exotic species in nonforested habitat. Habitat structure, rather than human impact, proved to be an important agent for environmental filtering of traits, causing divergent functional trait values across forested and nonforested environments. Our results illustrate the importance of considering various elements of land use when studying its impact on species diversity and the establishment and spread of exotic species.