ALBERT

Description: In this study, we identified gradual long‐term trends in functional diversity, trait turnover, and overall multi‐trait community composition spanning a period of 40 years and two key trophic groups: fish and zoobenthos, in three coastal marine areas. The study highlights the need for multiple measures and cross‐trophic level assessments to understand empirical functional (trait) change and serves as a baseline for functional change in the Baltic Sea region and other coastal and estuarine ecosystems worldwide. The findings contribute to the general understanding of biodiversity change and can be useful for developing predictions and models of community change. Abstract The rate at which biological diversity is altered on both land and in the sea, makes temporal community development a critical and fundamental part of understanding global change. With advancements in trait‐based approaches, the focus on the impact of temporal change has shifted towards its potential effects on the functioning of the ecosystems. Our mechanistic understanding of and ability to predict community change is still impeded by the lack of knowledge in long‐term functional dynamics that span several trophic levels. To address this, we assessed species richness and multiple dimensions of functional diversity and dynamics of two interacting key organism groups in the marine food web: fish and zoobenthos. We utilized unique time series‐data spanning four decades, from three environmentally distinct coastal areas in the Baltic Sea, and assembled trait information on six traits per organism group covering aspects of feeding, living habit, reproduction and life history. We identified gradual long‐term trends, rather than abrupt changes in functional diversity (trait richness, evenness, dispersion) trait turnover, and overall multi‐trait community composition. The linkage between fish and zoobenthic functional community change, in terms of correlation in long‐term trends, was weak, with timing of changes being area and trophic group specific. Developments of fish and zoobenthos traits, particularly size (increase in small size for both groups) and feeding habits (e.g. increase in generalist feeding for fish and scavenging or predation for zoobenthos), suggest changes in trophic pathways. We summarize our findings by highlighting three key aspects for understanding functional change across trophic groups: (a) decoupling of species from trait richness, (b) decoupling of richness from density and (c) determining of turnover and multi‐trait dynamics. We therefore argue for quantifying change in multiple functional measures to help assessments of biodiversity change move beyond taxonomy and single trophic groups.

Description: Using an integrated approach, we assess climate change resistance at a globally important green sea turtle rookery in Poilão Island, West Africa. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100), create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected sea level rise, and assess the availability of temporal and spatial microrefugia, degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats, within a quantitative framework. We estimate that this nesting population should resist climate change impacts until the end of this century and suggest this approach for other species and populations. Abstract Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

Description: Underestimated ecosystem carbon turnover time and sequestration under the steady state assumption (SSA) written summary: Considerable biases may arise when improperly invoking the SSA to estimate carbon turnover time at realistic dynamic disequilibrium state. This issue has not yet been carefully examined. Our finding provides a better understanding of the SSA‐induced uncertainty and the global carbon cycle dynamics and carbon‐climate feedback for future research. The SSA significantly underestimates the carbon turnover time by 29% and its sensitivity to temperature and precipitation by 22% and 42%, respectively, thereby leading to a 4.83‐fold underestimation of NEP in China's monsoonal forests, a principal C sink globally. These biases are negatively associated with forest age. Abstract It is critical to accurately estimate carbon (C) turnover time as it dominates the uncertainty in ecosystem C sinks and their response to future climate change. In the absence of direct observations of ecosystem C losses, C turnover times are commonly estimated under the steady state assumption (SSA), which has been applied across a large range of temporal and spatial scales including many at which the validity of the assumption is likely to be violated. However, the errors associated with improperly applying SSA to estimate C turnover time and its covariance with climate as well as ecosystem C sequestrations have yet to be fully quantified. Here, we developed a novel model‐data fusion framework and systematically analyzed the SSA‐induced biases using time‐series data collected from 10 permanent forest plots in the eastern China monsoon region. The results showed that (a) the SSA significantly underestimated mean turnover times (MTTs) by 29%, thereby leading to a 4.83‐fold underestimation of the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in these forest ecosystems, a major C sink globally; (b) the SSA‐induced bias in MTT and NEP correlates negatively with forest age, which provides a significant caveat for applying the SSA to young‐aged ecosystems; and (c) the sensitivity of MTT to temperature and precipitation was 22% and 42% lower, respectively, under the SSA. Thus, under the expected climate change, spatiotemporal changes in MTT are likely to be underestimated, thereby resulting in large errors in the variability of predicted global NEP. With the development of observation technology and the accumulation of spatiotemporal data, we suggest estimating MTTs at the disequilibrium state via long‐term data assimilation, thereby effectively reducing the uncertainty in ecosystem C sequestration estimations and providing a better understanding of regional or global C cycle dynamics and C‐climate feedback.

Description: On rangelands, application of organic amendments such as compost and biosolids is increasingly proposed for climate change mitigation. Considering a range of ecosystem outcomes, this meta‐analysis found that organic amendments, on average, provide some environmental benefits (increased soil carbon, soil water holding capacity, aboveground net primary productivity, and plant tissue nitrogen; decreased runoff quantity), as well as some environmental harms (increased concentrations of soil lead, runoff nitrate, and runoff phosphorus; increased soil CO2 emissions). Our models can be used to design site‐specific amendment application strategies, helping to realize the potential benefits of this practice while minimizing environmental harms. Abstract Interest in land application of organic amendments—such as biosolids, composts, and manures—is growing due to their potential to increase soil carbon and help mitigate climate change, as well as to support soil health and regenerative agriculture. While organic amendments are predominantly applied to croplands, their application is increasingly proposed on relatively arid rangelands that do not typically receive fertilizers or other inputs, creating unique concerns for outcomes such as native plant diversity and water quality. To maximize environmental benefits and minimize potential harms, we must understand how soil, water, and plant communities respond to particular amendments and site conditions. We conducted a global meta‐analysis of 92 studies in which organic amendments had been added to arid, semiarid, or Mediterranean rangelands. We found that organic amendments, on average, provide some environmental benefits (increased soil carbon, soil water holding capacity, aboveground net primary productivity, and plant tissue nitrogen; decreased runoff quantity), as well as some environmental harms (increased concentrations of soil lead, runoff nitrate, and runoff phosphorus; increased soil CO2 emissions). Published data were inadequate to fully assess impacts to native plant communities. In our models, adding higher amounts of amendment benefitted four outcomes and harmed two outcomes, whereas adding amendments with higher nitrogen concentrations benefitted two outcomes and harmed four outcomes. This suggests that trade‐offs among outcomes are inevitable; however, applying low‐N amendments was consistent with both maximizing benefits and minimizing harms. Short study time frames (median 1–2 years), limited geographic scope, and, for some outcomes, few published studies limit longer‐term inferences from these models. Nevertheless, they provide a starting point to develop site‐specific amendment application strategies aimed toward realizing the potential of this practice to contribute to climate change mitigation while minimizing negative impacts on other environmental goals.

Description: Fish populations provide valuable ecosystem services and support important fisheries, yet we know little about their responses to multiple interacting pressures. We sought to reveal the effects of multiple pressures on walleye populations from 444 lakes across Ontario, Canada. By controlling for spatial autocorrelation, we found statistical interactions that suggest antagonisms exist among pressures including the presence of an invasive species, loss of mature forest cover, angling pressure, and climate change. Quantifying these types of interactions is critical to understanding the current state of fisheries and to developing effective resource management plans that minimize the effects of multiple pressures. Abstract The expanding human global footprint and growing demand for freshwater have placed tremendous stress on inland aquatic ecosystems. Aichi Target 10 of the Convention on Biological Diversity aims to minimize anthropogenic pressures affecting vulnerable ecosystems, and pressure interactions are increasingly being incorporated into environmental management and climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, we explore how climate change, overfishing, forest disturbance, and invasive species pressures interact to affect inland lake walleye (Sander vitreus) populations. Walleye support subsistence, recreational, and commercial fisheries and are one of most sought‐after freshwater fish species in North America. Using data from 444 lakes situated across an area of 475 000 km2 in Ontario, Canada, we apply a novel statistical tool, R‐INLA, to determine how walleye biomass deficit (carrying capacity—observed biomass) is impacted by multiple pressures. Individually, angling activity and the presence of invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) were positively related to biomass deficits. In combination, zebra mussel presence interacted negatively and antagonistically with angling activity and percentage decrease in watershed mature forest cover. Velocity of climate change in growing degree days above 5°C and decrease in mature forest cover interacted to negatively affect walleye populations. Our study demonstrates how multiple pressure evaluations can be conducted for hundreds of populations to identify influential pressures and vulnerable ecosystems. Understanding pressure interactions is necessary to guide management and climate change adaptation strategies, and achieve global biodiversity targets.

Description: As lakes get warmer and browner, fish biomass production decreases through different pathways. Warming reduces population biomass and induces a shift toward smaller and younger individuals, whereas browning leads to slower body growth. Our study shows that it is necessary to study multiple climate stressors and both individual‐ and population‐level responses to understand and predict shifts in fish biomass production in a changing climate. Abstract Climate change studies have long focused on effects of increasing temperatures, often without considering other simultaneously occurring environmental changes, such as browning of waters. Resolving how the combination of warming and browning of aquatic ecosystems affects fish biomass production is essential for future ecosystem functioning, fisheries, and food security. In this study, we analyzed individual‐ and population‐level fish data from 52 temperate and boreal lakes in Northern Europe, covering large gradients in water temperature and color (absorbance, 420 nm). We show that fish (Eurasian perch, Perca fluviatilis) biomass production decreased with both high water temperatures and brown water color, being lowest in warm and brown lakes. However, while both high temperature and brown water decreased fish biomass production, the mechanisms behind the decrease differed: temperature affected the fish biomass production mainly through a decrease in population standing stock biomass, and through shifts in size‐ and age‐distributions toward a higher proportion of young and small individuals in warm lakes; brown water color, on the other hand, mainly influenced fish biomass production through negative effects on individual body growth and length‐at‐age. In addition to these findings, we observed that the effects of temperature and brown water color on individual‐level processes varied over ontogeny. Body growth only responded positively to higher temperatures among young perch, and brown water color had a stronger negative effect on body growth of old than on young individuals. Thus, to better understand and predict future fish biomass production, it is necessary to integrate both individual‐ and population‐level responses and to acknowledge within‐species variation. Our results suggest that global climate change, leading to browner and warmer waters, may negatively affect fish biomass production, and this effect may be stronger than caused by increased temperature or water color alone.

Description: Current and forecasted trends in tree growth from temperate and boreal tree species growing at the southernmost limit of their natural distribution in Europe. The tree growth projections by 2100 revealed a generalized decrease in growth under the climatic conditions derived from the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. Abstract Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short‐term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species’ limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short‐ and long‐term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species’ vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species‐specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species‐specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine‐scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.

Description: We identified 66 species, that are currently absent from the EU, which pose a very high, high or medium threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. The species span a range of functional groups, with primary producers being numerically dominant. Escape from confinement is the pathway considered to be the most likely route of introduction for many species, particularly among plants and vertebrates. Abstract The European Union (EU) has recently published its first list of invasive alien species (IAS) of EU concern to which current legislation must apply. The list comprises species known to pose great threats to biodiversity and needs to be maintained and updated. Horizon scanning is seen as critical to identify the most threatening potential IAS that do not yet occur in Europe to be subsequently risk assessed for future listing. Accordingly, we present a systematic consensus horizon scanning procedure to derive a ranked list of potential IAS likely to arrive, establish, spread and have an impact on biodiversity in the region over the next decade. The approach is unique in the continental scale examined, the breadth of taxonomic groups and environments considered, and the methods and data sources used. International experts were brought together to address five broad thematic groups of potential IAS. For each thematic group the experts first independently assembled lists of potential IAS not yet established in the EU but potentially threatening biodiversity if introduced. Experts were asked to score the species within their thematic group for their separate likelihoods of i) arrival, ii) establishment, iii) spread, and iv) magnitude of the potential negative impact on biodiversity within the EU. Experts then convened for a 2‐day workshop applying consensus methods to compile a ranked list of potential IAS. From an initial working list of 329 species, a list of 66 species not yet established in the EU that were considered to be very high (8 species), high (40 species) or medium (18 species) risk species was derived. Here, we present these species highlighting the potential negative impacts and the most likely biogeographic regions to be affected by these potential IAS.

Description: We performed controlled microcosm experiments and reanalyzed published pot experiments and field data to determine the relationship between community‐level nitrogen uptake rate, nitrogen availability, and fine‐root mass for 46 unique combinations of species, nitrogen levels, and growing conditions. Plant community nitrogen uptake rate was unaffected by fine‐root mass in 63% of cases and saturated with fine‐root mass in 29% of cases. In contrast, plant community nitrogen uptake rate was clearly affected by nitrogen availability. The results support the idea that although plants may over‐proliferate fine roots for individual‐level competition, it comes without an increase in community‐level nitrogen uptake. Abstract Understanding the effects of global change in terrestrial communities requires an understanding of how limiting resources interact with plant traits to affect productivity. Here, we focus on nitrogen and ask whether plant community nitrogen uptake rate is determined (a) by nitrogen availability alone or (b) by the product of nitrogen availability and fine‐root mass. Surprisingly, this is not empirically resolved. We performed controlled microcosm experiments and reanalyzed published pot experiments and field data to determine the relationship between community‐level nitrogen uptake rate, nitrogen availability, and fine‐root mass for 46 unique combinations of species, nitrogen levels, and growing conditions. We found that plant community nitrogen uptake rate was unaffected by fine‐root mass in 63% of cases and saturated with fine‐root mass in 29% of cases (92% in total). In contrast, plant community nitrogen uptake rate was clearly affected by nitrogen availability. The results support the idea that although plants may over‐proliferate fine roots for individual‐level competition, it comes without an increase in community‐level nitrogen uptake. The results have implications for the mechanisms included in coupled carbon‐nitrogen terrestrial biosphere models (CN‐TBMs) and are consistent with CN‐TBMs that operate above the individual scale and omit fine‐root mass in equations of nitrogen uptake rate but inconsistent with the majority of CN‐TBMs, which operate above the individual scale and include fine‐root mass in equations of nitrogen uptake rate. For the much smaller number of CN‐TBMs that explicitly model individual‐based belowground competition for nitrogen, the results suggest that the relative (not absolute) fine‐root mass of competing individuals should be included in the equations that determine individual‐level nitrogen uptake rates. By providing empirical data to support the assumptions used in CN‐TBMs, we put their global climate change predictions on firmer ground.

Description: Knowledge of the incidence and levels of synthetic particles in large marine vertebrates is lacking. Here, we explore whether synthetic particles could be isolated from marine turtle ingesta and report the presence in every turtle subjected to investigation including individuals from all the seven species of marine turtle, sampled from three ocean basins. Most particles were fibres in lesser quantities were fragments/microbeads and were a range of synthetic materials. Synthetic particles isolated from species occupying different trophic levels suggest the possibility of multiple ingestion pathways. We assess the likelihood this presents a significant conservation problem at current levels. Abstract Despite concerns regarding the environmental impacts of microplastics, knowledge of the incidence and levels of synthetic particles in large marine vertebrates is lacking. Here, we utilize an optimized enzymatic digestion methodology, previously developed for zooplankton, to explore whether synthetic particles could be isolated from marine turtle ingesta. We report the presence of synthetic particles in every turtle subjected to investigation (n = 102) which included individuals from all seven species of marine turtle, sampled from three ocean basins (Atlantic [ATL]: n = 30, four species; Mediterranean (MED): n = 56, two species; Pacific (PAC): n = 16, five species). Most particles (n = 811) were fibres (ATL: 77.1% MED: 85.3% PAC: 64.8%) with blue and black being the dominant colours. In lesser quantities were fragments (ATL: 22.9%: MED: 14.7% PAC: 20.2%) and microbeads (4.8%; PAC only; to our knowledge the first isolation of microbeads from marine megavertebrates). Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT‐IR) of a subsample of particles (n = 169) showed a range of synthetic materials such as elastomers (MED: 61.2%; PAC: 3.4%), thermoplastics (ATL: 36.8%: MED: 20.7% PAC: 27.7%) and synthetic regenerated cellulosic fibres (SRCF; ATL: 63.2%: MED: 5.8% PAC: 68.9%). Synthetic particles being isolated from species occupying different trophic levels suggest the possibility of multiple ingestion pathways. These include exposure from polluted seawater and sediments and/or additional trophic transfer from contaminated prey/forage items. We assess the likelihood that microplastic ingestion presents a significant conservation problem at current levels compared to other anthropogenic threats.

Description: The illustration shows how Artificial Light Pollution at Night (ALAN) can impact coral reefs by causing different physiological responses leading to photosynthetic performances and increasing oxidative stress. Abstract Coral reefs represent the most diverse marine ecosystem on the planet, yet they are undergoing an unprecedented decline due to a combination of increasing global and local stressors. Despite the wealth of research investigating these stressors, Artificial Light Pollution at Night (ALAN) or “ecological light pollution” represents an emerging threat that has received little attention in the context of coral reefs, despite the potential of disrupting the chronobiology, physiology, behavior, and other biological processes of coral reef organisms. Scleractinian corals, the framework builders of coral reefs, depend on lunar illumination cues to synchronize their biological rhythms such as behavior, reproduction and physiology. While, light pollution (POL) may mask and lead de‐synchronization of these biological rhythms process. To reveal if ALAN impacts coral physiology, we have studied two coral species, Acropora eurystoma and Pocillopora damicornis, from the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba, Red Sea, which is undergoing urban development that has led to severe POL at night. Our two experimental design data revealed that corals exposed to ALAN face an oxidative stress condition, show lower photosynthesis performances measured by electron transport rate (ETR), as well as changes in chlorophyll and algae density parameters. Testing different lights such as Blue LED and White LED spectrum showed more extreme impact in comparison to Yellow LEDs on coral physiology. The finding of this work sheds light on the emerging threat of POL and the impacts on the biology and ecology of Scleractinian corals, and will help to formulate specific management implementations to mitigate its potentially harmful impacts.

Description: Global Change Biology, Volume 25, Issue 11, Page i-ii, November 2019.

Description: Abstract Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) could face food shortages in the future because of its growing population. Agricultural expansion cause forest degradation in SSA through livestock grazing, reducing forests carbon (C) sinks and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore intensification should produce more food while reducing pressure on forests. This study assessed the potential for the dairy sector in Kenya to contribute to low‐emissions development by exploring three feeding scenarios. The analyses used empirical spatially‐explicit data, and a simulation model to quantify milk production, agricultural emissions and forest C loss due to grazing. The scenarios explored improvements in forage quality (Fo), feed conservation (Fe) and concentrate supplementation (Co): FoCo fed high quality Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum), FeCo supplemented maize silage, and FoFeCo a combination of Napier, silage and concentrates. Land shortages and forest C loss due to grazing were quantified with land requirements and feed availability around forests. All scenarios increased milk yields by 44%–51%, FoCo reduced GHG emissions intensity from 2.4 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.1 kg CO2eq per kg milk, FeCo reduced it to 2.2 ± 0.1, whereas FoFeCo increased it to 2.7 ± 0.2 kg CO2eq per kg milk because of land use change emissions. Closing the yield gap of maize by increasing N fertiliser use reduced emission intensities by 17% due to reduced emissions from conversion of grazing land. FoCo was the only scenario that mitigated agricultural and forest emissions reducing emissions intensity by 33% and overall emissions by 2.5% showing that intensification of dairy in a low income country can increase milk yields without increasing emissions. There are however risks of C leakage if agricultural and forest policies are not aligned leading to loss of forest to produce concentrates. This approach can aid the assessment of the climate‐smartness of livestock production practices at the national level in East Africa.

Description: The IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land addresses the closely coupled relationship between land use and climate change. The report notes the climate change mitigation potential of dietary shifts and afforestation. Here, we briefly discuss how decreases in ruminant meat consumption associated with dietary shifts have the potential to free up area for forests, allowing for greater CO2 sequestration and benefiting biodiversity, while simultaneously reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Description: Abstract Anthropogenic activities have led to a global decline in biodiversity, and monitoring studies indicate that both insect communities and wetland ecosystems are particularly affected. However, there is a need for long‐term data (over centennial‐ or millennial timescales) to better understand natural community dynamics and the processes that govern the observed trends. Chironomids (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) are often the most abundant insects in lake ecosystems, sensitive to environmental change, and, because their larval exoskeleton head capsules preserve well in lake sediments, they provide a unique record of insect community dynamics through time. Here, we provide the results of a meta‐data analysis of chironomid diversity across a range of spatial and temporal scales. First, we analyse spatial trends in chironomid diversity using Northern Hemispheric datasets overall consisting of 837 lakes. Our results indicate that in most of our datasets summer temperature (Tjul) is strongly associated with spatial trends in modern‐day chironomid diversity. We observe a strong increase in chironomid alpha diversity with increasing Tjul in regions with present day Tjul between 2.5‐14 °C. In some areas with Tjul 〉14 °C chironomid diversity stabilises or declines. Second, we demonstrate that the direction and amplitude of change in alpha diversity in a compilation of subfossil chironomid records spanning the last glacial‐interglacial transition (~15,000‐11,000 years ago) are similar to those observed in our modern data. A compilation of Holocene records shows that during phases when the amplitude of temperature change was small, site‐specific factors had a greater influence on the chironomid fauna obscuring the chironomid diversity‐temperature relationship. Our results imply expected overall chironomid diversity increases in colder regions such as the Arctic under sustained global warming, but with complex and not necessarily predictable responses for individual sites.

Description: Abstract As the ratio of carbon uptake to water use by vegetation, water‐use efficiency (WUE) is a key ecosystem property linking global carbon and water cycles. It can be estimated in several ways, but it is currently unclear how different measures of WUE relate, and how well they each capture variation in WUE with soil moisture availability. We evaluated WUE in an Acacia‐dominated woodland ecosystem of central Australia at various spatial and temporal scales using stable carbon isotope analysis, leaf gas exchange and eddy covariance fluxes. Semi‐arid Australia has a highly variable rainfall pattern, making it an ideal system to study how WUE varies with water availability. We normalised our measures of WUE across a range of vapour pressure deficits using g1, which is a parameter derived from an optimal stomatal conductance model and which is inversely related to WUE. Continuous measures of whole‐ecosystem g1 obtained from eddy covariance data were elevated in the 3 days following rain, indicating a strong effect of soil evaporation. Once these values were removed, a close relationship of g1 with soil moisture content was observed. Leaf‐scale values of g1 derived from gas exchange were in close agreement with ecosystem‐scale values. In contrast, values of g1 obtained from stable isotopes did not vary with soil moisture availability, potentially indicating remobilisation of stored carbon during dry periods. Our comprehensive comparison of alternative measures of WUE shows the importance of stomatal control of fluxes in this highly variable rainfall climate and demonstrates the ability of these different measures to quantify this effect. Our study provides the empirical evidence required to better predict the dynamic carbon‐water relations in semi‐arid Australian ecosystems.

Description: We show that because of methodological improvements, the human modification map detects higher levels of land modification and is more accurate than the human footprint map across the gradient of modification globally. While we agree that protecting the world's least modified lands or wildlands is essential for conservation, we assert that extending conservation actions to better “manage the middle” are urgently needed to ensure healthy functioning ecosystems for people and nature.

Description: Impact of simulated marine heatwaves on foundation macrophytes in the Baltic Sea. Abstract Marine heatwaves have been observed worldwide and are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity due to climate change. Such events may cause ecosystem reconfigurations arising from species range contraction or redistribution, with ecological, economic and social implications. Macrophytes such as the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus and the seagrass Zostera marina are foundation species in many coastal ecosystems of the temperate northern hemisphere. Hence, their response to extreme events can potentially determine the fate of associated ecosystems. Macrophyte functioning is intimately linked to the maintenance of photosynthesis, growth and reproduction, and resistance against pathogens, epibionts and grazers. We investigated morphological, physiological, pathological and chemical defence responses of western Baltic Sea F. vesiculosus and Z. marina populations to simulated near‐natural marine heatwaves. Along with (a) the control, which constituted no heatwave but natural stochastic temperature variability (0HW), two treatments were applied: (b) two late‐spring heatwaves (June, July) followed by a summer heatwave (August; 3HW) and (c) a summer heatwave only (1HW). The 3HW treatment was applied to test whether preconditioning events can modulate the potential sensitivity to the summer heatwave. Despite the variety of responses measured in both species, only Z. marina growth was impaired by the accumulative heat stress imposed by the 3HW treatment. Photosynthetic rate, however, remained high after the last heatwave indicating potential for recovery. Only epibacterial abundance was significantly affected in F. vesiculosus. Hence both macrophytes, and in particular F. vesiculosus, seem to be fairly tolerant to short‐term marine heatwaves at least at the intensities applied in this experiment (up to 5°C above mean temperature over a period of 9 days). This may partly be due to the fact that F. vesiculosus grows in a highly variable environment, and may have a high phenotypic plasticity.

Description: Abstract Increasing global energy demands have led to the ongoing intensification of hydrocarbon extraction from marine areas. Hydrocarbon extractive activities pose threats to native marine biodiversity, such as noise, light, and chemical pollution, physical changes to the sea floor, invasive species, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we assessed at a global scale the spatial overlap between offshore hydrocarbon activities and marine biodiversity (〉25,000 species, nine major ecosystems, and marine protected areas), and quantify the changes over time. We discovered that two‐thirds of global offshore hydrocarbon activities occur in areas within the top 10% for species richness, range rarity, and proportional range rarity values globally. Thus, while hydrocarbon activities are undertaken in less than one percent of the ocean's area, they overlap with approximately 85% of all assessed species. Of conservation concern, 4% of species with the largest proportion of their range overlapping hydrocarbon activities are range restricted, potentially increasing their vulnerability to localized threats such as oil spills. While hydrocarbon activities have extended to greater depths since the mid‐1990s, we found that the largest overlap is with coastal ecosystems, particularly estuaries, saltmarshes, and mangroves. Furthermore, in most countries where offshore hydrocarbon exploration licensing blocks have been delineated, they do not overlap with marine protected areas (MPAs). Although this is positive in principle, many countries have far more licensing block areas than protected areas, and in some instances, MPA coverage is minimal. These findings suggest the need for marine spatial prioritisation to help limit future spatial overlap between marine conservation priorities and hydrocarbon activities. Such prioritisation can be informed by the spatial and quantitative baseline information provided here. In increasingly shared seascapes, prioritising management actions that set both conservation and development targets could help minimize further declines of biodiversity and environmental changes at a global scale. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Northern peatlands form a major soil carbon (C) stock. With climate change, peatland C mineralization is expected to increase, which in turn would accelerate climate change. A particularity of peatlands is the importance of soil aeration, which regulates peatland functioning and likely modulates the responses to warming climate. Our aim is to assess the impacts of warming on a southern boreal and a sub‐arctic sedge fen carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange under two plausible water table regimes: wet and moderately dry. We focused this study on minerotrophic treeless sedge fens, as they are common peatland types at boreal and (sub)arctic areas, which are expected to face the highest rates of climate warming. In addition, fens are expected to respond to environmental changes faster than the nutrient poor bogs. Our study confirmed that CO2 exchange is more strongly affected by drying than warming. Experimental water level draw‐down (WLD) significantly increased gross photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration. Warming alone had insignificant impacts on the CO2 exchange components, but when combined with WLD it further increased ecosystem respiration. In the southern fen, CO2 uptake decreased due to WLD, which was amplified by warming, while at northern fen it remained stable. As a conclusion, our results suggest that a very small difference in the WLD may be decisive, whether the C sink of a fen decreases, or whether the system is able to adapt within its regime and maintain its functions. Moreover, the water table has a role in determining how much the increased temperature impacts the CO2 exchange. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Wetlands are important sources of methane (CH4) and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2). However, little is known about CH4 and CO2 fluxes and dynamics of seasonally flooded tropical forests of South America in relation to local carbon (C) balances and atmospheric exchange. We measured net ecosystem fluxes of CH4 and CO2 in the Pantanal over 2014‐2017 using tower‐based eddy covariance along with C measurements in soil, biomass and water. Our data indicate that seasonally‐flooded tropical forests are potentially large sinks for CO2 but strong sources of CH4, particularly during inundation when reducing conditions in soils increase CH4 production and limit CO2 release. During inundation when soils were anaerobic, the flooded forest emitted 0.11±0.002 g CH4‐C m−2 d−1 and absorbed 1.6±0.2 g CO2‐C m−2 d−1 (mean±95% confidence interval for the entire study period). Following the recession of floodwaters, soils rapidly became aerobic and CH4 emissions decreased significantly (0.002±0.001 g CH4‐C m−2 d−1) but remained a net source, while the net CO2 flux flipped from being a net sink during anaerobic periods to acting as a source during aerobic periods. CH4 fluxes were 50 times higher in the wet season; DOC was a minor component in the net ecosystem carbon balance. Daily fluxes of CO2 and CH4 were similar in all years for each season, but annual net fluxes varied primarily in relation to flood duration. While the ecosystem was a net C sink on an annual basis (absorbing 218 g C m−2 (as CH4‐C+CO2‐C) in anaerobic phases and emitting 76 g C m−2 in aerobic phases), high CH4 effluxes during the anaerobic flooded phase and modest CH4 effluxes during the aerobic phase indicate that seasonally flooded tropical forests can be a net source of radiative forcings on an annual basis, thus acting as an amplifying feedback on global warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract The interactions between climate and land use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range‐restricted species, and high‐beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001 to 2014. For the analyses we created annual land cover/land use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250‐m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km2, and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p 〈0.05) 14‐year linear trend (positive – forest gain, negative – forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n=479) lost forests and 63.4% (n=829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1000‐1499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural‐human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real‐time land use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract A significant portion of the production and consumption of trace gases (e.g. CO2, CH4, N2O, NH3, etc.) by world ecosystems occurs in areas without sufficient infrastructure or easily available grid power to run traditional closed‐path flux stations. Open‐path analyzer design allows such measurements with power consumption 10‐150 times below present closed‐path technologies, helping to considerably expand the global coverage and improve the estimates of gas emissions and budgets, informing the remote sensing and modeling communities and policy decisions, all the way to IPCC reports. Broad‐band NDIR devices have been used for open‐path CO2 and H2O measurements since the late 1970s, but since recently, a growing number of new narrow‐band laser‐based instruments are being rapidly developed. The new design comes with its own challenges, specifically: (i) mirror contamination, and (ii) uncontrolled air temperature, pressure and humidity, affecting both the gas density and the laser spectroscopy of the measurements. While the contamination can be addressed via automated cleaning, and density effects can be addressed via the Webb‐Pearman‐Leuning approach, the spectroscopic effects of the in‐situ temperature, pressure and humidity fluctuations on laser‐measured densities remain a standing methodological question. Here we propose a concept accounting for such effects in the same manner as Webb et al. (1980) proposed to account for respective density effects. Derivations are provided for a general case of flux of any gas, examined using a specific example of CH4 fluxes from a commercially available analyzer, and then tested using “zero‐flux” experiment. The proposed approach helps reduce errors in open‐path, enclosed, and temperature‐ or pressure‐uncontrolled closed‐path laser‐based flux measurements due to the spectroscopic effects from few percents to multiple folds, leading to methodological advancement and geographical expansion of the use of such systems providing reliable and consistent results for process‐level studies, remote sensing and Earth modeling applications, and GHG policy decision‐making. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global Change Biology, Volume 25, Issue 4, Page i-ii, April 2019.

Description: Abstract Biochar application to croplands has been proposed as a potential strategy to decrease losses of soil‐reactive nitrogen (N) to the air and water. However, the extent and spatial variability of biochar function at the global level are still unclear. Using Random Forest regression modelling of machine learning based on data compiled from the literature, we mapped the impacts of different biochar types (derived from wood, straw, or manure), and their interactions with biochar application rates, soil properties and environmental factors, on soil N losses (NH3 volatilization, N2O emissions, and N leaching) and crop productivity. The results show that a suitable distribution of biochar across global croplands (i.e., one application of 〈40 t ha−1 wood biochar for poorly buffered soils, such as those characterized by soil pH〈5, organic carbon〈1%, or clay〉30%; and one application of 〈80 t ha−1 wood biochar, 〈40 t ha−1 straw biochar, or 〈10 t ha−1 manure biochar for other soils) could achieve an increase of global crop yields by 222~766 Tg yr−1 (4~16% increase), a mitigation of cropland N2O emissions by 0.19~0.88 Tg N yr−1 (6~30% decrease), a decline of cropland N leaching by 3.9~9.2 Tg N yr−1 (12~29% decrease), but also a fluctuation of cropland NH3 volatilization by ‐1.9~4.7 Tg N yr−1 (‐12~31% change). The decreased sum of the three major reactive N losses amount to 1.7~9.4 Tg N yr−1, which corresponds to 3~14% of the global cropland total N loss. Biochar generally has a larger potential for decreasing soil N losses but with less benefits to crop production in temperate regions than in tropical regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract The sustainability of the vast Arctic permafrost carbon pool under climate change is of paramount importance for global climate trajectories. Accurate climate change forecasts therefore depend on a reliable representation of mechanisms governing Arctic carbon cycle processes, but this task is complicated by the complex interaction of multiple controls on Arctic ecosystem changes, linked through both positive and negative feedbacks. As a primary example, predicted Arctic warming can be substantially influenced by shifts in hydrologic regimes, linked to e.g. altered precipitation patterns or changes in topography following permafrost degradation. This study presents observational evidence how severe drainage, a scenario that may affect large Arctic areas with ice‐rich permafrost soils under future climate change, affects biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes within an Arctic floodplain. Our in‐situ data demonstrate reduced carbon losses and transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere, and effects linked to drainage‐induced long‐term shifts in vegetation communities and soil thermal regimes largely counterbalanced the immediate drainage impact. Moreover, higher surface albedo in combination with low thermal conductivity cooled the permafrost soils. Accordingly, long‐term drainage effects linked to warming‐induced permafrost degradation hold the potential to alleviate positive feedbacks between permafrost carbon and Arctic warming, and to slow down permafrost degradation. Self‐stabilizing effects associated with ecosystem disturbance such as these drainage impacts are a key factor for predicting future feedbacks between Arctic permafrost and climate change, and, thus, neglect of these mechanisms will exaggerate the impacts of Arctic change on future global climate projections. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change requires the underlying environmental drivers to be identified. As vital rates vary over the lifecycle, structured population models derived from statistical environment‐demography relationships are often used to inform such predictions. Environmental drivers are typically identified independently for different vital rates and demographic classes. However, these rates often exhibit positive temporal covariance, suggesting the vital rates respond to common environmental drivers. Additionally, models often only incorporate average weather conditions during a single, a priori chosen time window (e.g. monthly means). Mismatches between these windows and the period when the vital rates are sensitive to variation in climate decrease the predictive performance of such approaches. We used a demographic structural equation model (SEM) to demonstrate that a single axis of environmental variation drives the majority of the (co)variation in survival, reproduction, and twinning across six age‐sex classes in a Soay sheep population. This axis provides a simple target for the complex task of identifying the drivers of vital rate variation. We used functional linear models (FLMs) to determine the critical windows of three local climatic drivers, allowing the magnitude and direction of the climate effects to differ over time. Previously unidentified lagged climatic effects were detected in this well‐studied population. The FLMs had a better predictive performance than selecting a critical window a priori, but not than a large‐scale climate index. Positive covariance amongst vital rates and temporal variation in the effects of environmental drivers are common, suggesting our SEM‐FLM approach is a widely applicable tool for exploring the joint responses of vital rates to environmental change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Postdisturbance recovery of an experimental forest was characterized by delayed postfire mortality of large trees, reduced forest carbon stocks, and the establishment of invasive grasses, pushing a neotropical forest to a new environment. Yet, this highly degraded forests rapidly recovered their capacity to cycle water and to uptake carbon in response to increased water use and light‐use efficiency. Abstract Drought, fire, and windstorms can interact to degrade tropical forests and the ecosystem services they provide, but how these forests recover after catastrophic disturbance events remains relatively unknown. Here, we analyze multi‐year measurements of vegetation dynamics and function (fluxes of CO2 and H2O) in forests recovering from 7 years of controlled burns, followed by wind disturbance. Located in southeast Amazonia, the experimental forest consists of three 50‐ha plots burned annually, triennially, or not at all from 2004 to 2010. During the subsequent 6‐year recovery period, postfire tree survivorship and biomass sharply declined, with aboveground C stocks decreasing by 70%–94% along forest edges (0–200 m into the forest) and 36%–40% in the forest interior. Vegetation regrowth in the forest understory triggered partial canopy closure (70%–80%) from 2010 to 2015. The composition and spatial distribution of grasses invading degraded forest evolved rapidly, likely because of the delayed mortality. Four years after the experimental fires ended (2014), the burned plots assimilated 36% less carbon than the Control, but net CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration (ET) had fully recovered 7 years after the experimental fires ended (2017). Carbon uptake recovery occurred largely in response to increased light‐use efficiency and reduced postfire respiration, whereas increased water use associated with postfire growth of new recruits and remaining trees explained the recovery in ET. Although the effects of interacting disturbances (e.g., fires, forest fragmentation, and blowdown events) on mortality and biomass persist over many years, the rapid recovery of carbon and water fluxes can help stabilize local climate.

Description: Invasive species threaten global biodiversity, agriculture, food security and ecosystem function. Pest risk analysis is key to biosecurity efforts, but is hampered by incomplete knowledge of invasive species distributions. We use statistical species distribution models to estimate presence probabilities for 1,739 crop pests and pathogens globally, and test model predictions for unobserved occurrences in China against observations abstracted from the Chinese literature. We show that large numbers of currently unobserved invasive species of agriculture are probably already present around the world, particularly in China, India and the former USSR. Abstract Invasive species threaten global biodiversity, food security and ecosystem function. Such incursions present challenges to agriculture where invasive species cause significant crop damage and require major economic investment to control production losses. Pest risk analysis (PRA) is key to prioritize agricultural biosecurity efforts, but is hampered by incomplete knowledge of current crop pest and pathogen distributions. Here, we develop predictive models of current pest distributions and test these models using new observations at subnational resolution. We apply generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate presence probabilities for 1,739 crop pests in the CABI pest distribution database. We test model predictions for 100 unobserved pest occurrences in the People's Republic of China (PRC), against observations of these pests abstracted from the Chinese literature. This resource has hitherto been omitted from databases on global pest distributions. Finally, we predict occurrences of all unobserved pests globally. Presence probability increases with host presence, presence in neighbouring regions, per capita GDP and global prevalence. Presence probability decreases with mean distance from coast and known host number per pest. The models are good predictors of pest presence in provinces of the PRC, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.75–0.76. Large numbers of currently unobserved, but probably present pests (defined here as unreported pests with a predicted presence probability 〉0.75), are predicted in China, India, southern Brazil and some countries of the former USSR. We show that GLMs can predict presences of pseudoabsent pests at subnational resolution. The Chinese literature has been largely inaccessible to Western academia but contains important information that can support PRA. Prior studies have often assumed that unreported pests in a global distribution database represent a true absence. Our analysis provides a method for quantifying pseudoabsences to enable improved PRA and species distribution modelling.

Description: Abstract China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands, yet the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here we provide new data‐driven estimates of cropland N2O emissions across China in 1990‐2014, compiled using a global cropland‐N2O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey‐based reconstruction of N‐fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland N2O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that China's annual cropland‐N2O emissions increased on average by 11.2 Gg N yr−2 (P 〈 0.001) from 1990 to 2003, after which emissions plateaued until 2014 (2.8 Gg N yr−2, P = 0.02), consistent with the output from an ensemble of process‐based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The slowdown of the increase in cropland‐N2O emissions after 2003 was pervasive across two thirds of China's sowing areas. This change was mainly driven by the nationwide reduction of N‐fertilizer applied per area, partially due to the prevalence of nationwide technological adoptions. This reduction has almost offset the N2O emissions induced by policy‐driven expansion of sowing areas, particularly in the Northeast Plain and the lower Yangtze River Basin. Our results underline the importance of high‐resolution activity data and adoption of nonlinear model of N2O emission for capturing cropland‐N2O emission changes. Improving the representation of policy interventions is also recommended for future projections. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multi‐variable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta‐regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time‐series of population abundance from seventeen European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1% / year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Global climate change can significantly influence oceanic phytoplankton dynamics, and thus biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs. However, associative explanations based on the correlation between chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chla) and climatic indices is inadequate to describe the mechanism of the connection between climate change, large‐scale atmospheric dynamics, and phytoplankton variability. Here, by analyzing multiple satellite observations of Chla and atmospheric conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis datasets, we show that high‐latitude atmospheric blocking events over Alaska are the primary drivers of the recent decline of Chla in the eastern North Pacific transition zone. These blocking events were associated with the persistence of large‐scale atmosphere pressure fields that decreased westerly winds and southward Ekman transport over the subarctic ocean gyre. Reduced southward Ekman transport leads to reductions in nutrient availability to phytoplankton in the transition zone. The findings describe a previously unidentified climatic factor that contributed to the recent decline of phytoplankton in this region and propose a mechanism of the top‐down teleconnection between the high latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies and the subtropical oceanic primary productivity. The results also highlight the importance of understanding teleconnection among atmosphere‐ocean interactions as a means to anticipate future climate change impacts on oceanic primary production. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Coral bleaching and mortality following marine heatwaves are transforming coral reefs, but the long‐term effects of habitat turnover for coral reef fishes remain unclear. Using a 23‐year time series spanning a severe marine heatwave, we show that reef fish communities persisted in altered compositions 〉15 years after mass coral mortality. After bleaching, herbivore dominance was typical of all reefs, and new macroalgal habitats were most dissimilar to their historic compositions. Frequent and severe bleaching events caused by ocean warming will prevent reef fish communities from recovering to their prebleaching state. Abstract Ecological communities are reorganizing in response to warming temperatures. For continuous ocean habitats this reorganization is characterized by large‐scale species redistribution, but for tropical discontinuous habitats such as coral reefs, spatial isolation coupled with strong habitat dependence of fish species imply that turnover and local extinctions are more significant mechanisms. In these systems, transient marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and profoundly altering habitat structure, yet despite severe bleaching events becoming more frequent and projections indicating annual severe bleaching by the 2050s at most reefs, long‐term effects on the diversity and structure of fish assemblages remain unclear. Using a 23‐year time series spanning a thermal stress event, we describe and model structural changes and recovery trajectories of fish communities after mass bleaching. Communities changed fundamentally, with the new emergent communities dominated by herbivores and persisting for 〉15 years, a period exceeding realized and projected intervals between thermal stress events on coral reefs. Reefs which shifted to macroalgal states had the lowest species richness and highest compositional dissimilarity, whereas reefs where live coral recovered exceeded prebleaching fish richness, but remained dissimilar to prebleaching compositions. Given realized and projected frequencies of bleaching events, our results show that fish communities historically associated with coral reefs will not re‐establish, requiring substantial adaptation by managers and resource users.

Description: Abstract Wildfire refugia (unburnt patches within large wildfires) are important for the persistence of fire‐sensitive species across forested landscapes globally. A key challenge is to identify the factors that determine the distribution of fire refugia across space and time. In particular, determining the relative influence of climatic and landscape factors is important in order to understand likely changes in the distribution of wildfire refugia under future climates. Here, we examine the relative effect of weather (i.e. fire weather, drought severity) and landscape features (i.e. topography, fuel age, vegetation type) on the occurrence of fire refugia across 26 large wildfires in south‐eastern Australia. Fire weather and drought severity were the primary drivers of the occurrence of fire refugia, moderating the effect of landscape attributes. Unburnt patches rarely occurred under ‘severe’ fire weather, irrespective of drought severity, topography, fuels or vegetation community. The influence of drought severity and landscape factors played out most strongly under ‘moderate’ fire weather. In mesic forests, fire refugia were linked to variables that affect fuel moisture, whereby the occurrence of unburnt patches decreased with increasing drought conditions and were associated with more mesic topographic locations (i.e. gullies, pole‐facing aspects) and vegetation communities (i.e. rainforest). In dry forest, the occurrence of refugia was responsive to fuel age, being associated with recently burnt areas (〈5 years since fire). Overall, these results show that increased severity of fire weather and increased drought conditions, both predicted under future climate scenarios, are likely to lead to a reduction of wildfire refugia across forests of southern Australia. Protection of topographic areas able to provide long‐term fire refugia will be an important step towards maintaining the ecological integrity of forests under future climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We used a controlled flow‐through experiment to assess the effect of nitrate on salt marsh sediment organic matter decomposition along a depth gradient. Nitrate addition significantly increased microbial respiration, particularly denitrification, when compared to a seawater control, even in sediments considered more resistant to decomposition. This corresponded with a shift in the microbial community toward taxa better suited for a high nitrogen environment. These results have important implications when considering carbon storage potential in productive salt marsh systems. Abstract Salt marshes sequester carbon at rates more than an order of magnitude greater than their terrestrial counterparts, helping to mitigate climate change. As nitrogen loading to coastal waters continues, primarily in the form of nitrate, it is unclear what effect it will have on carbon storage capacity of these highly productive systems. This uncertainty is largely driven by the dual role nitrate can play in biological processes, where it can serve as a nutrient‐stimulating primary production or a thermodynamically favorable electron acceptor fueling heterotrophic metabolism. Here, we used a controlled flow‐through reactor experiment to test the role of nitrate as an electron acceptor, and its effect on organic matter decomposition and the associated microbial community in salt marsh sediments. Organic matter decomposition significantly increased in response to nitrate, even at sediment depths typically considered resistant to decomposition. The use of isotope tracers suggests that this pattern was largely driven by stimulated denitrification. Nitrate addition also significantly altered the microbial community and decreased alpha diversity, selecting for taxa belonging to groups known to reduce nitrate and oxidize more complex forms of organic matter. Fourier Transform‐Infrared Spectroscopy further supported these results, suggesting that nitrate facilitated decomposition of complex organic matter compounds into more bioavailable forms. Taken together, these results suggest the existence of organic matter pools that only become accessible with nitrate and would otherwise remain stabilized in the sediment. The existence of such pools could have important implications for carbon storage, since greater decomposition rates as N loading increases may result in less overall burial of organic‐rich sediment. Given the extent of nitrogen loading along our coastlines, it is imperative that we better understand the resilience of salt marsh systems to nutrient enrichment, especially if we hope to rely on salt marshes, and other blue carbon systems, for long‐term carbon storage.

Description: Abstract There is mounting empirical evidence that lianas affect the carbon cycle of tropical forests. However, no single vegetation model takes into account this growth form, although such efforts could greatly improve the predictions of carbon dynamics in tropical forests. In this study, we incorporated a novel mechanistic representation of lianas in a dynamic global vegetation model (the Ecosystem Demography Model). We developed a liana‐specific plant functional type and mechanisms representing liana‐tree interactions (such as light competition, liana‐specific allometries and attachment to host trees) and parameterized them according to a comprehensive literature meta‐analysis. We tested the model for an old‐growth forest (Paracou, French Guiana) and a secondary forest (Gigante Peninsula, Panama). The resulting model simulations captured many features of the two forests characterized by different levels of liana infestation as revealed by a systematic comparison of the model outputs with empirical data, including local census data from forest inventories, eddy flux tower data, and terrestrial laser scanner‐derived forest vertical structure. The inclusion of lianas in the simulations reduced the secondary forest net productivity by up to 0.46 tC.ha−1.y−1, which corresponds to a limited relative reduction of 2.6% in comparison with a reference simulation without lianas. However, this resulted in significantly reduced accumulated above‐ground biomass after 70 years of regrowth by up to 20 tC.ha−1 (19% of the reference simulation). Ultimately, the simulated negative impact of lianas on the total biomass was almost completely cancelled out when the forest reached an old‐growth successional stage. Our findings suggest that lianas negatively influence the forest potential carbon sink strength, especially for young, disturbed, liana‐rich sites. In light of the critical role that lianas play in the profound changes currently experienced by tropical forests, this new model provides a robust numerical tool to forecast the impact of lianas on tropical forest carbon sinks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Carbon (C) emission from land use and land cover change (LULCC) is the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget primarily due to limited LULCC data and inadequate model capability (e.g., under‐represented agricultural managements). We take the commonly used FAOSTAT‐based global Land Use Harmonization data (LUH2) and a new high‐resolution multi‐source harmonized national LULCC database (YLmap) to drive a land ecosystem model (DLEM) in the conterminous US. We found that recent cropland abandonment and forest recovery may have been overestimated in the LUH2 data derived from national statistics, causing previously reported C emissions from land use have been underestimated due to definition of cropland and aggregated LULCC signals at coarse resolution. This overestimation leads to a strong C sink (30.3 ± 2.5 Tg C yr‐1) in model simulations driven by LUH2 in the US during the 1980‐2016 period, while we find a moderate C source (13.6 ± 3.5 Tg C yr‐1) when using YLmap. This divergence implies that previous C budget analyses based on the global LUH2 dataset have underestimated C emission in the US owing to suitable cropland delineation and aggregated land conversion signals at coarse resolution which YLmap overcomes. Thus, to obtain more accurate quantification of LULCC‐induced C emission and better serve global C budget accounting, it is urgently needed to develop fine‐scale country‐specific LULCC data to characterize details of land conversion. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th Century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st Century climate change constitutes a new – but so far unevaluated – threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high‐resolution topography and fine‐scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso‐ and microclimate scales. We show that climate‐only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th Century destruction is evident – more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation – and 21st Century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Wildfires are becoming larger and more frequent across much of the United States. We show that fire activity has increased in lake watersheds across the continental United States from 1984 to 2015, particularly since 2005. Despite over 30 years of increasing exposure, fire effects on lakes have not been well studied. We propose a conceptual model of how fire may influence the physical, chemical, and biological properties of lakes. This model highlights emerging research priorities and provides a starting point to help land and lake managers anticipate potential effects of fire on ecosystem services provided by lakes and their watersheds. Abstract Wildfires are becoming larger and more frequent across much of the United States due to anthropogenic climate change. No studies, however, have assessed fire prevalence in lake watersheds at broad spatial and temporal scales, and thus it is unknown whether wildfires threaten lakes and reservoirs (hereafter, lakes) of the United States. We show that fire activity has increased in lake watersheds across the continental United States from 1984 to 2015, particularly since 2005. Lakes have experienced the greatest fire activity in the western United States, Southern Great Plains, and Florida. Despite over 30 years of increasing fire exposure, fire effects on fresh waters have not been well studied; previous research has generally focused on streams, and most of the limited lake‐fire research has been conducted in boreal landscapes. We therefore propose a conceptual model of how fire may influence the physical, chemical, and biological properties of lake ecosystems by synthesizing the best available science from terrestrial, aquatic, fire, and landscape ecology. This model also highlights emerging research priorities and provides a starting point to help land and lake managers anticipate potential effects of fire on ecosystem services provided by fresh waters and their watersheds.

Description: Abstract Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) via organic inputs is a key strategy for increasing long‐term soil C storage and improving the climate change mitigation and adaptation potential of agricultural systems. A long‐term trial in California's Mediterranean climate revealed impacts of management on SOC in maize‐tomato and wheat–fallow cropping systems. SOC was measured at the initiation of the experiment and at year 19, at five depth increments down to 2 m, taking into account changes in bulk density. Across the entire 2 m profile, SOC in the wheat–fallow systems did not change with the addition of N fertilizer, winter cover crops (WCC), or irrigation alone and decreased by 5.6% with no inputs. There was some evidence of soil C gains at depth with both N fertilizer and irrigation, though high variation precluded detection of significant changes. In maize‒tomato rotations, SOC increased by 12.6% (21.8 Mg C ha‐1) with both WCC and composted poultry manure inputs, across the 2‐m profile. The addition of WCC to a conventionally managed system increased SOC stocks by 3.5% (1.44 Mg C ha‐1) in the 0 to 30 cm layer, but decreased by 10.8% (14.86 Mg C ha‐1) in the 30 to 200 cm layer, resulting in overall losses of 13.4 Mg C ha‐1. If we only measured soil C in the top 30 cm, we would have assumed an increase in total soil C increased with WCC alone, whereas in reality significant losses in SOC occurred when considering the 2‐m soil profile. Ignoring the subsoil carbon dynamics in deeper layers of soil fails to recognize potential opportunities for soil C sequestration, and may lead to false conclusions about the impact of management practices on C sequestration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Experiments that alter local climate and measure community‐ and ecosystem‐level responses are an important tool for understanding how future ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here, we synthesized data from 76 studies that manipulated climate and measured plant community responses, and find that most climate change experiments do not correspond to model‐projected climate scenarios for their respective regions. This mismatch constrains our ability to predict responses of plant biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate change, and we conclude with suggestions for a way forward. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) generally enhances C3 plant productivity, whereas acute heat stress, which occurs during heat waves, generally elicits the opposite response. However, little is known about the interaction of these two variables, especially during key reproductive phases in important temperate food crops, such as soybean (Glycine max). Here, we grew soybean under elevated [CO2] and imposed high (+9°C) and low (+5°C) intensity heat waves during key temperature‐sensitive reproductive stages (R1, flowering; R5, pod filling) to determine how elevated [CO2] will interact with heat waves to influence soybean yield. High‐intensity heat waves, which resulted in canopy temperatures that exceeded optimal growth temperatures for soybean, reduced yield compared to ambient conditions even under elevated [CO2]. This was largely due to heat stress on reproductive processes, especially during R5. Low intensity heat waves did not affect yields when applied during R1 but increased yields when applied during R5 likely due to relatively lower canopy temperatures and higher soil moisture, which uncoupled the negative effects of heating on cellular‐ and leaf‐level processes from plant‐level carbon assimilation. Modeling soybean yields based on carbon assimilation alone underestimated yield loss with high intensity heat waves and overestimated yield loss with low intensity heat waves, thus supporting the influence of direct heat stress on reproductive processes in determining yield. These results have implications for rain‐fed cropping systems and point towards a climatic tipping point for soybean yield when future heat waves exceed optimum temperature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We found that plant community composition at landscape scales has shifted in response to warming temperatures and increased precipitation during the 20th century, with other major drivers of global change affecting the occurrence and magnitude of these shifts. Colonizations by warm‐adapted species, particularly non‐natives, have contributed to community‐level warming, at the expense of species more poorly adapted to the direction of climate change. However, widespread landscape simplification in the form of increased forest cover appears to have had a buffering effect on community shifts following climate warming. Abstract Climate change, land‐use change and introductions of non‐native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm‐associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non‐native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm‐associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool‐associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non‐native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community‐level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non‐natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate‐driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.

Description: Abstract Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to Sub‐Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (= pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A new conceptual framework is proposed to improve our understanding of soil organic matter behaviour at depth: at any soil profile, two vertically distinct, dynamic zones of influence can be identified, an upper vegetation zone of influence (VZI), controlled by plant traits, and a lower mineral matrix zone of influence (MMZI), controlled by geochemical interactions. In the VZI, soil organic carbon (SOC) flux is upwards to the atmosphere (SOC mineralization to CO2), while in the MMZI, the SOC flux is downwards to deep soil storage (SOC stabilization and persistence), as it is suggested by SOC profiles in analogy to the ‘zero‐flux plane’ concept in hydrology. Abstract Soil organic matter (SOM) is an indicator of sustainable land management as stated in the global indicator framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG Indicator 15.3.1). Improved forecasting of future changes in SOM is needed to support the development of more sustainable land management under a changing climate. Current models fail to reproduce historical trends in SOM both within and during transition between ecosystems. More realistic spatio‐temporal SOM dynamics require inclusion of the recent paradigm shift from SOM recalcitrance as an ‘intrinsic property’ to SOM persistence as an ‘ecosystem interaction’. We present a soil profile, or pedon‐explicit, ecosystem‐scale framework for data and models of SOM distribution and dynamics which can better represent land use transitions. Ecosystem‐scale drivers are integrated with pedon‐scale processes in two zones of influence. In the upper vegetation zone, SOM is affected primarily by plant inputs (above‐ and belowground), climate, microbial activity and physical aggregation and is prone to destabilization. In the lower mineral matrix zone, SOM inputs from the vegetation zone are controlled primarily by mineral phase and chemical interactions, resulting in more favourable conditions for SOM persistence. Vegetation zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (vegetation cover) and temporally at decadal scales (climate). Mineral matrix zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (geology, topography) but change only slowly. The thicknesses of the two zones and their transport connectivity are dynamic and affected by plant cover, land use practices, climate and feedbacks from current SOM stock in each layer. Using this framework, we identify several areas where greater knowledge is needed to advance the emerging paradigm of SOM dynamics—improved representation of plant‐derived carbon inputs, contributions of soil biota to SOM storage and effect of dynamic soil structure on SOM storage—and how this can be combined with robust and efficient soil monitoring.

Description: Abstract Drought‐induced tree mortality is projected to increase due to climate change, which will have manifold ecological and societal impacts including the potential to weaken or reverse the terrestrial carbon sink. Predictions of tree mortality remain limited, in large part because within‐species variations in ecophysiology due to plasticity or adaptation and ecosystem adjustments could buffer mortality in dry locations. Here, we conduct a meta‐analysis of 50 studies spanning 〉100 woody plant species globally to quantify how populations within species vary in vulnerability to drought mortality and whether functional traits or climate mediate mortality patterns. We find that mortality predominantly occurs in drier populations and this pattern is more pronounced in species with xylem that can tolerate highly negative water potentials, typically considered to be an adaptive trait for dry regions, and species that experience higher variability in water stress. Our results indicate that climate stress has exceeded physiological and ecosystem‐level tolerance or compensating mechanisms by triggering extensive mortality at dry range edges and provides a foundation for future mortality projections in empirical distribution and mechanistic vegetation models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Fine root litter is a primary source of soil organic matter (SOM), which is a globally important pool of C that is responsive to climate change. We previously established that ~20 years of experimental nitrogen (N) deposition has slowed fine root decay and increased the storage of soil carbon (C; +18%) across a widespread northern hardwood forest ecosystem. However, the microbial mechanisms that have directly slowed fine root decay are unknown. Here, we show that experimental N deposition has decreased the relative abundance of Agaricales fungi (‐31%) and increased that of partially ligninolytic Actinobacteria (+24%) on decaying fine roots. Moreover, experimental N deposition has increased the relative abundance of lignin‐derived compounds residing in SOM (+53%), and this biochemical response is significantly related to shifts in both fungal and bacterial community composition. Specifically, the accumulation of lignin‐derived compounds in SOM is negatively related to the relative abundance of ligninolytic Mycena and Kuehneromyces fungi, and positively related to Microbacteriaceae. Our findings suggest that by altering the composition of microbial communities on decaying fine roots such that their capacity for lignin degradation is reduced, experimental N deposition has slowed fine root litter decay, and increased the contribution of lignin‐derived compounds from fine roots to SOM. The microbial responses we observed may explain widespread findings that anthropogenic N deposition increases soil C storage in terrestrial ecosystems. More broadly, our findings directly link composition to function in soil microbial communities, and implicate compositional shifts in mediating biogeochemical processes of global significance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract The novel ecosystem (NE) concept has been discussed in terrestrial restoration ecology over the last 15 years but has not yet found much traction in the marine context. Against a background of unprecedented environmental change, managers of natural marine resources have portfolios full of altered systems for which restoration to a previous historical baseline may be impractical for ecological, social or financial reasons. In these cases, the NE concept is useful for weighing options and emphasizes the risk of doing nothing by forcing questions regarding the value of novelty and how it can best be managed in the marine realm. Here, we explore how the concept fits marine ecosystems. We propose a scheme regarding how the NE concept could be used as a triage framework for use in marine environments within the context of a decision framework that explicitly considers changed ecosystems and whether restoration is the best or only option. We propose a conceptual diagram to show where marine NEs fit in the continuum of unaltered to shifted marine ecosystems. Overall, we suggest that the NE concept is of interest to marine ecologists and resource managers because it introduces a new vocabulary for considering marine systems that have been changed through human actions but have not shifted to an alternate stable state. Although it remains to be seen whether the concept of marine NEs leads to better conservation and restoration decisions, we posit that the concept may help inform management decisions in an era of unprecedented global marine change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time‐varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre‐shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long‐term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production, protection against rockfall and avalanches, and carbon storage. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: By 2071–2100, land‐use governance in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to be decisive to mitigate the climate‐change effects on increasing fire occurrence. We combined regional land‐use and global climate (CMIP5) projections into the maximum entropy model and showed that the worse‐case land‐use scenario alone, including the decrease in the effectiveness of protected areas, extensive road paving and increased deforestation, may cause a 73.2% augment in the fire‐prone area. While combining the best‐case land‐use scenario and RCP 4.5 would cause a 21.3% increase in the fire‐prone area, the pessimistic land‐use and RCP 8.5 scenarios would cause a 113.5% increase. Abstract The joint and relative effects of future land‐use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land‐use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041–2070) and late (2071–2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change. Considering climate only, the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by 2071–2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The best‐case land‐use scenario (“Sustainability”) alone causes a 10.6% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3, while the worse‐case land‐use scenario (“Fragmentation”) causes a 73.2% increase. The optimistic climate‐land‐use projection (Sustainability and RCP 4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 in October by 2071–2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, the most pessimistic climate‐land‐use projection (Fragmentation and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land‐use and RCP 8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3. We conclude that avoiding the regress on land‐use governance in the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.

Description: Abstract Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source‐areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source‐municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source‐areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source‐areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two differ time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and a pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source‐areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source‐municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long‐term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Holocene has been an epoch of highly dynamic environmental changes. We analysed isotopic signatures in bone collagen of the three largest European herbivores that survived the Pleistocene/Holocene transition to determine the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on habitat use and diet. European bison, aurochs and moose shifted from more open habitats in the Early (pre‐Neolithic) Holocene to forests during the Neolithic and Late Holocene in response first to forest expansion and later because of human impact. Our results show that foraging plasticity was the key for survival of large herbivores in the changing environmental conditions of the Holocene. Abstract Climate warming and human landscape transformation during the Holocene resulted in environmental changes for wild animals. The last remnants of the European Pleistocene megafauna that survived into the Holocene were particularly vulnerable to changes in habitat. To track the response of habitat use and foraging of large herbivores to natural and anthropogenic changes in environmental conditions during the Holocene, we investigated carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope composition in bone collagen of moose (Alces alces), European bison (Bison bonasus) and aurochs (Bos primigenius) in Central and Eastern Europe. We found strong variations in isotope compositions in the studied species throughout the Holocene and diverse responses to changing environmental conditions. All three species showed significant changes in their δ13C values reflecting a shift of foraging habitats from more open in the Early and pre‐Neolithic Holocene to more forest during the Neolithic and Late Holocene. This shift was strongest in European bison, suggesting higher plasticity, more limited in moose, and the least in aurochs. Significant increases of δ15N values in European bison and moose are evidence of a diet change towards more grazing, but may also reflect increased nitrogen in soils following deglaciation and global temperature increases. Among the factors explaining the observed isotope variations were time (age of samples), longitude and elevation in European bison, and time, longitude and forest cover in aurochs. None of the analysed factors explained isotope variations in moose. Our results demonstrate the strong influence of natural (forest expansion) and anthropogenic (deforestation and human pressure) changes on the foraging ecology of large herbivores, with forests playing a major role as a refugial habitat since the Neolithic, particularly for European bison and aurochs. We propose that high flexibility in foraging strategy was the key for survival of large herbivores in the changing environmental conditions of the Holocene.

Description: Over the last 120 years, the dry season in the southeastern United States has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130%), with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no apparent change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be affecting fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters. Abstract Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet–dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897–2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder‐days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.

Description: Abstract As countries advance in greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for climate change mitigation, consistent estimates of aboveground net biomass change (∆AGB) are needed. Countries with limited forest monitoring capabilities in the tropics and subtropics rely on IPCC 2006 default ∆AGB rates, which are values per ecological zone, per continent. Similarly, research on forest biomass change at large scale also make use of these rates. IPCC 2006 default rates come from a handful of studies, provide no uncertainty indications, and do not distinguish between older secondary forests and old‐growth forests. As part of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, we incorporate ∆AGB data available from 2006 onwards, comprising 176 chronosequences in secondary forests and 536 permanent plots in old‐growth and managed/logged forests located in 42 countries in Africa, North and South America, and Asia. We generated ∆AGB rate estimates for younger secondary forests (≤20 years), older secondary forests (〉20 years and up to 100 years) and old‐growth forests, and accounted for uncertainties in our estimates. In tropical rainforests, for which data availability was the highest, our ∆AGB rate estimates ranged from 3.4 (Asia) to 7.6 (Africa) Mg ha‐1 yr‐1 in younger secondary forests, from 2.3 (North and South Ameri09ca) to 3.5 (Africa) Mg ha‐1 yr‐1 in older secondary forests, and 0.7 (Asia) to 1.3 (Africa) Mg ha‐1 yr‐1 in old‐growth forests. We provide a rigorous and traceable refinement of the IPCC 2006 default rates in tropical and subtropical ecological zones, and identify which areas require more research on ∆AGB. In this respect, this study should be considered as an important step towards quantifying the role of tropical and subtropical forests as carbon sinks with higher accuracy; our new rates can be used for large‐scale GHG accounting by governmental bodies, non‐governmental organisations and in scientific research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Temperate forests cover 16% of the global forest area. Within these forests, the understorey is an important biodiversity reservoir that can influence ecosystem processes and functions in multiple ways. However, we still lack a thorough understanding of the relative importance of the understorey for temperate forest functioning. As a result, understoreys are often ignored during assessments of forest functioning and changes thereof under global change. We here compiled studies that quantify the relative importance of the understorey for temperate forest functioning, focussing on litter production, nutrient cycling, evapotranspiration, tree regeneration, pollination and pathogen dynamics. We describe the mechanisms driving understorey functioning and develop a conceptual framework synthesizing possible effects of multiple global‐change drivers on understorey‐mediated forest ecosystem functioning. Our review illustrates that the understorey's contribution to temperate forest functioning is significant but varies depending on the ecosystem function and the environmental context, and more importantly, the characteristics of the overstorey. To predict changes in understorey functioning and its relative importance for temperate forest functioning under global change, we argue that a simultaneous investigation of both overstorey and understorey functional responses to global change will be crucial. Our review shows that such studies are still very scarce, only available for a limited set of ecosystem functions and limited to quantification, providing little data to forecast functional responses to global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Theory suggests that more complex food webs promote stability and can buffer the effects of perturbations, such as drought, on soil organisms and ecosystem functions. Here, we tested experimentally how soil food web trophic complexity modulates the response to drought of soil functions related to carbon cycling and the capture and transfer below‐ground of recent photosynthate by plants. We constructed experimental systems comprising soil communities with 1, 2 or 3 trophic levels (microorganisms, detritivores and predators) and subjected them to drought. We investigated how food web trophic complexity in interaction with drought influenced litter decomposition, soil CO2 efflux, mycorrhizal colonisation, fungal production, microbial communities and soil fauna biomass. Plants were pulse‐labelled after the drought with 13C‐CO2 to quantify the capture of recent photosynthate and its transfer below‐ground. Overall, our results show that drought and soil food web trophic complexity do not interact to affect soil functions and microbial community composition, but act independently, with an overall stronger effect of drought. After drought, the net uptake of 13C by plants was reduced and its retention in plant biomass was greater, leading to a strong decrease in carbon transfer below‐ground. Although food web trophic complexity influenced the biomass of Collembola and fungal hyphal length, 13C enrichment and the net transfer of carbon from plant shoots to microbes and soil CO2 efflux was not affected significantly by varying the number of trophic groups. Our results indicate that drought has a strong effect on above‐ground ‐ below‐ground linkages by reducing the flow of recent photosynthate. Our results emphasise the sensitivity of the critical pathway of recent photosynthate transfer from plants to soil organisms to a drought perturbation, and show that these effects may not be mitigated by the trophic complexity of soil communities, at least at the level manipulated in this experiment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Climate change threatens organisms in a variety of interactive ways that requires simultaneous adaptation of multiple traits. Predicting evolutionary responses requires an understanding of the potential for interactions among stressors and the genetic variance and covariance among fitness‐related traits that may reinforce or constrain an adaptive response. Here we investigate the capacity of Acropora millepora, a reef‐building coral, to adapt to multiple environmental stressors: rising sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, and increased prevalence of infectious diseases. We measured growth rates (weight gain), coral color (a proxy for Symbiodiniaceae density), and survival, in addition to nine physiological indicators of coral and algal health in 40 coral genets exposed to each of these three stressors singly and combined. Individual stressors resulted in predicted responses (e.g., corals developed lesions after bacterial challenge and bleached under thermal stress). However, corals did not suffer substantially more when all three stressors were combined. Nor were tradeoffs observed between tolerances to different stressors; instead, individuals performing well under one stressor also tended to perform well under every other stressor. An analysis of genetic correlations between traits revealed positive co‐variances, suggesting that selection to multiple stressors will reinforce rather than constrain the simultaneous evolution of traits related to holobiont health (e.g., weight gain and algal density). These findings support the potential for rapid coral adaptation under climate change and emphasize the importance of accounting for corals’ adaptive capacity when predicting the future of coral reefs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing cultivation of pollinator‐dependent crops has placed a stress on global pollination capacity, which could have been ameliorated by a concomitant increase in agricultural diversification. However, this study reports a relatively weak and decelerating rise in agricultural diversity over time that was largely decoupled from the strong and continually increasing trend in agricultural dependency on pollinators. Particularly worrisome is a rapid expansion of pollinator‐dependent monocultures in several countries of the Americas and Asia that has resulted in a decrease in agricultural diversity. In these regions, reliance on pollinators is increasing, yet agricultural practices that undermine pollination services are expanding. Abstract The global increase in the proportion of land cultivated with pollinator‐dependent crops implies increased reliance on pollination services. Yet agricultural practices themselves can profoundly affect pollinator supply and pollination. Extensive monocultures are associated with a limited pollinator supply and reduced pollination, whereas agricultural diversification can enhance both. Therefore, areas where agricultural diversity has increased, or at least been maintained, may better sustain high and more stable productivity of pollinator‐dependent crops. Given that 〉80% of all crops depend, to varying extents, on insect pollination, a global increase in agricultural pollinator dependence over recent decades might have led to a concomitant increase in agricultural diversification. We evaluated whether an increase in the area of pollinator‐dependent crops has indeed been associated with an increase in agricultural diversity, measured here as crop diversity, at the global, regional, and country scales for the period 1961–2016. Globally, results show a relatively weak and decelerating rise in agricultural diversity over time that was largely decoupled from the strong and continually increasing trend in agricultural dependency on pollinators. At regional and country levels, there was no consistent relationship between temporal changes in pollinator dependence and crop diversification. Instead, our results show heterogeneous responses in which increasing pollinator dependence for some countries and regions has been associated with either an increase or a decrease in agricultural diversity. Particularly worrisome is a rapid expansion of pollinator‐dependent oilseed crops in several countries of the Americas and Asia that has resulted in a decrease in agricultural diversity. In these regions, reliance on pollinators is increasing, yet agricultural practices that undermine pollination services are expanding. Our analysis has thereby identified world regions of particular concern where environmentally damaging practices associated with large‐scale, industrial agriculture threaten key ecosystem services that underlie productivity, in addition to other benefits provided by biodiversity.

Description: Fire has declined globally, and our study documents these changes taking place within the boundaries of one of Africa's most important transboundary protected areas. We find striking changes to the fire regime over time, with the number of fires declining by 40%, and the area burnt by 39%, in 14 years. We attribute the decline in fire to human‐induced land use changes, particularly increases in cattle density in some areas of the system. These changes, and the underlying driver (livestock) are likely particularly widespread across Africa. Abstract Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems.

Description: Abstract Nitrogen (N) deposition is a component of global change that has considerable impact on belowground carbon (C) dynamics. Plant growth stimulation and alterations of fungal community composition and functions are the main mechanisms driving soil C gains following N deposition in N‐limited temperate forests. In N‐rich tropical forests, however, N deposition generally has minor effects on plant growth; consequently, C storage in soil may strongly depend on the microbial processes that drive litter and soil organic matter decomposition. Here, we investigated how microbial functions in old‐growth tropical forest soil responded to 13 years of N addition at four rates: 0 (Control), 50 (Low‐N), 100 (Medium‐N), and 150 (High‐N) kg N ha−1 yr−1. Soil organic carbon (SOC) content increased under High‐N, corresponding to a 33% decrease in CO2 efflux, and reductions in relative abundances of bacteria as well as genes responsible for cellulose and chitin degradation. A 113% increase in N2O emission was positively correlated with soil acidification and an increase in the relative abundances of denitrification genes (narG and norB). Soil acidification induced by N addition decreased available P concentrations, and was associated with reductions in the relative abundance of phytase. The decreased relative abundance of bacteria and key functional gene groups for C degradation were related to slower SOC decomposition, indicating the key mechanisms driving SOC accumulation in the tropical forest soil subjected to High‐N addition. However, changes in microbial functional groups associated with N and P cycling led to coincidentally large increases in N2O emissions, and exacerbated soil P deficiency. These two factors partially offset the perceived beneficial effects of N addition on SOC storage in tropical forest soils. These findings suggest a potential to incorporate microbial community and functions into Earth system models considering their effects on greenhouse gas emission, biogeochemical processes and biodiversity of tropical ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Using a setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area, our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations. We found strong but gradual changes in body growth, varying with body size. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time. Abstract A challenge facing ecologists trying to predict responses to climate change is the few recent analogous conditions to use for comparison. For example, negative relationships between ectotherm body size and temperature are common both across natural thermal gradients and in small‐scale experiments. However, it is unknown if short‐term body size responses are representative of long‐term responses. Moreover, to understand population responses to warming, we must recognize that individual responses to temperature may vary over ontogeny. To enable predictions of how climate warming may affect natural populations, we therefore ask how body size and growth may shift in response to increased temperature over life history, and whether short‐ and long‐term growth responses differ. We addressed these questions using a unique setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area (both with unexploited populations), using before‐after control‐impact paired time‐series analyses. We assembled individual growth trajectories of ~13,000 unique individuals of Eurasian perch and found that body growth increased substantially after warming, but the extent depended on body size: Only among small‐bodied perch did growth increase with temperature. Moreover, the strength of this response gradually increased over the 24 year warming period. Our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations, resulting in gradual changes in body growth, varying as organisms develop. Although increased juvenile growth rates are in line with predictions of the temperature–size rule, the fact that a larger body size at age was maintained over life history contrasts to that same rule. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time.

Description: This study reveals that excessive rainfall can adversely affect maize yield as much as extreme drought in the US, especially at regional scale. However, current process‐based crop models cannot capture the yield loss from excessive rainfall and overestimate crop yield under wet conditions. The results highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield. Abstract Increasing drought and extreme rainfall are major threats to maize production in the United States. However, compared to drought impact, the impact of excessive rainfall on crop yield remains unresolved. Here, we present observational evidence from crop yield and insurance data that excessive rainfall can reduce maize yield up to −34% (−17 ± 3% on average) in the United States relative to the expected yield from the long‐term trend, comparable to the up to −37% loss by extreme drought (−32 ± 2% on average) from 1981 to 2016. Drought consistently decreases maize yield due to water deficiency and concurrent heat, with greater yield loss for rainfed maize in wetter areas. Excessive rainfall can have either negative or positive impact on crop yield, and its sign varies regionally. Excessive rainfall decreases maize yield significantly in cooler areas in conjunction with poorly drained soils, and such yield loss gets exacerbated under the condition of high preseason soil water storage. Current process‐based crop models cannot capture the yield loss from excessive rainfall and overestimate yield under wet conditions. Our results highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.

Description: The goal of this comment is to show that the “aggregate reactor” framework recently proposed in an article published in this journal is severely limited by two kinds of indeterminacy. The first is related to the size of aggregates, which is not defined precisely. The second issue is with the impossibility to replicate boundary conditions that are identical to what chunks of soils would have experienced in their natural state. We suggest that the study of GHG release in undisturbed soil samples is a better way to proceed forward.

Description: The timing of peak photosynthetic activity acts as a proxy for plant's adaptive state to climatic constraints on its growth. Abstract Seasonality in photosynthetic activity is a critical component of seasonal carbon, water, and energy cycles in the Earth system. This characteristic is a consequence of plant's adaptive evolutionary processes to a given set of environmental conditions. Changing climate in northern lands (〉30°N) alters the state of climatic constraints on plant growth, and therefore, changes in the seasonality and carbon accumulation are anticipated. However, how photosynthetic seasonality evolved to its current state, and what role climatic constraints and their variability played in this process and ultimately in carbon cycle is still poorly understood due to its complexity. Here, we take the “laws of minimum” as a basis and introduce a new framework where the timing (day of year) of peak photosynthetic activity (DOYPmax) acts as a proxy for plant's adaptive state to climatic constraints on its growth. Our analyses confirm that spatial variations in DOYPmax reflect spatial gradients in climatic constraints as well as seasonal maximum and total productivity. We find a widespread warming‐induced advance in DOYPmax (−1.66 ± 0.30 days/decade, p 〈 0.001) across northern lands, indicating a spatiotemporal dynamism of climatic constraints to plant growth. We show that the observed changes in DOYPmax are associated with an increase in total gross primary productivity through enhanced carbon assimilation early in the growing season, which leads to an earlier phase shift in land‐atmosphere carbon fluxes and an increase in their amplitude. Such changes are expected to continue in the future based on our analysis of earth system model projections. Our study provides a simplified, yet realistic framework based on first principles for the complex mechanisms by which various climatic factors constrain plant growth in northern ecosystems.

Description: To better understand the ecological impacts of climate warming‐induced increases in boreal wildfire activity, we investigated fungal communities after an extreme fire event at 47 locations in the Northwest Territories, Canada. We found that fungal communities were primarily determined by edaphic factors (pH) but greater fire severity led to declines in richness and diversity of total fungi, mycorrhizas, and saprotrophs. Combined with our demonstration of important correlations between mycorrhizas and vascular plants after fire, our study enhances understanding of how large fire disturbances alter soil microbial communities that drive ecosystem functioning and affect plant community structure. Abstract Wildfire is the dominant disturbance in boreal forests and fire activity is increasing in these regions. Soil fungal communities are important for plant growth and nutrient cycling postfire but there is little understanding of how fires impact fungal communities across landscapes, fire severity gradients, and stand types in boreal forests. Understanding relationships between fungal community composition, particularly mycorrhizas, and understory plant composition is therefore important in predicting how future fire regimes may affect vegetation. We used an extreme wildfire event in boreal forests of Canada's Northwest Territories to test drivers of fungal communities and assess relationships with plant communities. We sampled soils from 39 plots 1 year after fire and 8 unburned plots. High‐throughput sequencing (MiSeq, ITS) revealed 2,034 fungal operational taxonomic units. We found soil pH and fire severity (proportion soil organic layer combusted), and interactions between these drivers were important for fungal community structure (composition, richness, diversity, functional groups). Where fire severity was low, samples with low pH had higher total fungal, mycorrhizal, and saprotroph richness compared to where severity was high. Increased fire severity caused declines in richness of total fungi, mycorrhizas, and saprotrophs, and declines in diversity of total fungi and mycorrhizas. The importance of stand age (a surrogate for fire return interval) for fungal composition suggests we could detect long‐term successional patterns even after fire. Mycorrhizal and plant community composition, richness, and diversity were weakly but significantly correlated. These weak relationships and the distribution of fungi across plots suggest that the underlying driver of fungal community structure is pH, which is modified by fire severity. This study shows the importance of edaphic factors in determining fungal community structure at large scales, but suggests these patterns are mediated by interactions between fire and forest stand composition.

Description: Seasonal elk migrations occur in multiple herds across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. These migrations are affected by snow melt and forage conditions, both of which are affected by climate. Here, we examine how changes in the snow and forage are affecting elk migration timing across this iconic ecosystem. Abstract Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate‐induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade‐off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd‐level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE‐wide changes—except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green‐up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator–prey dynamics, carnivore–livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Description: The “new” topsoils of deep flipped soils (full inversion with digger) accumulated soil organic carbon (SOC) at high rates but did not reach the reference SOC of un‐flipped topsoils 20 years after flipping. The burial of SOC‐rich topsoil material with soil flipping caused an one‐time sequestration of large amounts of SOC and its long‐term preservation. Therefore, deep soil flipping was found to be the management practice with the highest ever reported SOC sequestration rate in grasslands. Abstract Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) has been recognized as an opportunity to off‐set global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Flipping (full inversion to 1–3 m) is a practice used on New Zealand's South Island West Coast to eliminate water‐logging in highly podzolized sandy soils. Flipping results in burial of SOC formed in surface soil horizons into the subsoil and the transfer of subsoil material low in SOC to the “new” topsoil. The aims of this study were to quantify changes in the storage and stability of SOC over a 20‐year period following flipping of high‐productive pasture grassland. Topsoils (0–30 cm) from sites representing a chronosequence of flipping (3–20 years old) were sampled (2005/07) and re‐sampled (2017) to assess changes in topsoil carbon stocks. Deeper samples (30–150 cm) were also collected (2017) to evaluate the changes in stocks of SOC previously buried by flipping. Density fractionation was used to determine SOC stability in recent and buried topsoils. Total SOC stocks (0–150 cm) increased significantly by 69 ± 15% (179 ± 40 Mg SOC ha‐1) over 20 years following flipping. Topsoil burial caused a one‐time sequestration of 160 ± 14 Mg SOC ha‐1 (30–150 cm). The top 0–30 cm accumulated 3.6 Mg SOC ha‐1 year‐1. The chronosequence and re‐sampling revealed SOC accumulation rates of 1.2–1.8 Mg SOC ha‐1 year‐1 in the new surface soil (0–15 cm) and a SOC deficit of 36 ± 5% after 20 years. Flipped subsoils contained up to 32% labile SOC (compared to 〈1% in un‐flipped subsoils) thus buried SOC was preserved. This study confirms that burial of SOC and the exposure of SOC depleted subsoil results in an overall increase of SOC stocks of the whole soil profile and long‐term SOC preservation.

Description: Terrestrial‐breeding frogs are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. We generated Single Nucleotide Polymorphism data to investigate genome‐wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial‐breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. Our analyses revealed strong population genetic structure, potential inbreeding and a decline in genetic diversity over 10 years in one population. We also provide strong molecular evidence of local adaptation to environmental variables such as rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. Abstract Terrestrial‐breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome‐wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial‐breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range‐edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.

Description: Through a large coordinated effort, we asked fishers from nine Mediterranean Countries to tell us about species perceived to be increasing in abundance or ‘new' in their fishing areas. Respondents reported increasing abundances of warm water fishes of both native and exotic origin, contributing to trace back their expansion over the spatiotemporal scale. Assembling this information across national borders and jurisdictions provided us with a regional picture of ongoing biotic transformations, mostly driven by invasive species and by the putative effects of climate change. Abstract Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small‐scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as “new” or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm‐adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large‐scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.

Description: We modeled the impacts of climate change on the timing of phytoplankton blooms and spawning of two classes of fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed features and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to environmental change. Phytoplankton blooms occurred 16 days earlier compared to baseline conditions. The phenology of geographic spawners changed twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing them to often spawn before the bloom. Trophic mismatches were less widespread for environmental spawners, indicating this behavioral mode increased resiliency to phenological mismatches. Mismatches experienced by geographic spawners could lead to declines in survival and recruitment. Abstract Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature‐linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high‐emissions, climate‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes 〉40°N. The temperature‐linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across 〉85% of this region. “Extreme events,” defined here as seasonal mismatches 〉30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10‐fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

Description: Legacy effects in tree rings were large in response to a severe drought in a temperate forest. Despite this postdrought suppression of tree growth, ecosystem fluxes were not affected, likely due to dynamic C allocation away from stem growth towards the canopy. Abstract Severe drought can cause lagged effects on tree physiology that negatively impact forest functioning for years. These “drought legacy effects” have been widely documented in tree‐ring records and could have important implications for our understanding of broader scale forest carbon cycling. However, legacy effects in tree‐ring increments may be decoupled from ecosystem fluxes due to (a) postdrought alterations in carbon allocation patterns; (b) temporal asynchrony between radial growth and carbon uptake; and (c) dendrochronological sampling biases. In order to link legacy effects from tree rings to whole forests, we leveraged a rich dataset from a Midwestern US forest that was severely impacted by a drought in 2012. At this site, we compiled tree‐ring records, leaf‐level gas exchange, eddy flux measurements, dendrometer band data, and satellite remote sensing estimates of greenness and leaf area before, during, and after the 2012 drought. After accounting for the relative abundance of tree species in the stand, we estimate that legacy effects led to ~10% reductions in tree‐ring width increments in the year following the severe drought. Despite this stand‐scale reduction in radial growth, we found that leaf‐level photosynthesis, gross primary productivity (GPP), and vegetation greenness were not suppressed in the year following the 2012 drought. Neither temporal asynchrony between radial growth and carbon uptake nor sampling biases could explain our observations of legacy effects in tree rings but not in GPP. Instead, elevated leaf‐level photosynthesis co‐occurred with reduced leaf area in early 2013, indicating that resources may have been allocated away from radial growth in conjunction with postdrought upregulation of photosynthesis and repair of canopy damage. Collectively, our results indicate that tree‐ring legacy effects were not observed in other canopy processes, and that postdrought canopy allocation could be an important mechanism that decouples tree‐ring signals from GPP.

Description: Upper thermal limits were reduced by exposure to infectious disease; and depended on the severity of infection, the type of thermal stress encountered and the specific genotype of both the host and pathogen. We observed that pathogens could reduce thermal limits at a magnitude equivalent in scale to the natural variation in thermal limits seen within species over large geographic and ecological ranges. Abstract As a result of global climate change, species are experiencing an escalation in the severity and regularity of extreme thermal events. With patterns of disease distribution and transmission predicted to undergo considerable shifts in the coming years, the interplay between temperature and pathogen exposure will likely determine the capacity of a population to persist under the dual threat of global change and infectious disease. In this study, we investigated how exposure to a pathogen affects an individual's ability to cope with extreme temperatures. Using experimental infections of Daphnia magna with its obligate bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa, we measured upper thermal limits of multiple host and pathogen genotype combinations across the dynamic process of infection and under various forms (static and ramping) of thermal stress. We find that pathogens substantially limit the thermal tolerance of their host, with the reduction in upper thermal limits on par with the breadth of variation seen across similar species entire geographical ranges. The precise magnitude of any reduction, however, was specific to the host and pathogen genotype combination. In addition, as thermal ramping rate slowed, upper thermal limits of both healthy and infected individuals were reduced. Our results suggest that the capacity of a population to evolve new thermal limits, when also faced with the threat of infection, will depend not only on a host's genetic variability in warmer environments, but also on the frequency of host and pathogen genotypes. We suggest that pathogen‐induced alterations of host thermal performance should be taken into account when assessing the resilience of any population and its potential for adaptation to global change.

Description: Future climate change is expected to trigger substantial changes in Arctic hydrology, with strong impacts on ecosystem structure, and carbon and energy cycle processes. Our study quantifies the net impact of drainage disturbance on permafrost carbon and energy budgets, based on a Siberian field experiment. We demonstrate that secondary disturbance effects (e.g., vegetation shifts) dampen the immediate drainage impact (e.g., increased CO2 emissions), leading to near‐neutral carbon and energy budget responses on the long term. The detected complex feedback mechanisms between ecosystem components need to be considered for accurate assessments of future feedbacks between Arctic permafrost and climate change. Abstract The sustainability of the vast Arctic permafrost carbon pool under climate change is of paramount importance for global climate trajectories. Accurate climate change forecasts, therefore, depend on a reliable representation of mechanisms governing Arctic carbon cycle processes, but this task is complicated by the complex interaction of multiple controls on Arctic ecosystem changes, linked through both positive and negative feedbacks. As a primary example, predicted Arctic warming can be substantially influenced by shifts in hydrologic regimes, linked to, for example, altered precipitation patterns or changes in topography following permafrost degradation. This study presents observational evidence how severe drainage, a scenario that may affect large Arctic areas with ice‐rich permafrost soils under future climate change, affects biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes within an Arctic floodplain. Our in situ data demonstrate reduced carbon losses and transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere, and effects linked to drainage‐induced long‐term shifts in vegetation communities and soil thermal regimes largely counterbalanced the immediate drainage impact. Moreover, higher surface albedo in combination with low thermal conductivity cooled the permafrost soils. Accordingly, long‐term drainage effects linked to warming‐induced permafrost degradation hold the potential to alleviate positive feedbacks between permafrost carbon and Arctic warming, and to slow down permafrost degradation. Self‐stabilizing effects associated with ecosystem disturbance such as these drainage impacts are a key factor for predicting future feedbacks between Arctic permafrost and climate change, and, thus, neglect of these mechanisms will exaggerate the impacts of Arctic change on future global climate projections.

Description: Vertebrate scavenger (carrion‐consuming) species provide key ecosystem functions and services, but little is known about their large‐scale patterns of species richness and diversity. We found that scavenger assemblages in highly human‐impacted areas sustained the smallest number of scavenger species, suggesting human activity may be overriding other macroecological processes in shaping scavenger communities. As species‐rich assemblages tend to be more functional, we warn about possible reductions in ecosystem functions and the services provided by scavengers in human‐dominated landscapes in the Anthropocene. Abstract Understanding the distribution of biodiversity across the Earth is one of the most challenging questions in biology. Much research has been directed at explaining the species latitudinal pattern showing that communities are richer in tropical areas; however, despite decades of research, a general consensus has not yet emerged. In addition, global biodiversity patterns are being rapidly altered by human activities. Here, we aim to describe large‐scale patterns of species richness and diversity in terrestrial vertebrate scavenger (carrion‐consuming) assemblages, which provide key ecosystem functions and services. We used a worldwide dataset comprising 43 sites, where vertebrate scavenger assemblages were identified using 2,485 carcasses monitored between 1991 and 2018. First, we evaluated how scavenger richness (number of species) and diversity (Shannon diversity index) varied among seasons (cold vs. warm, wet vs. dry). Then, we studied the potential effects of human impact and a set of macroecological variables related to climatic conditions on the scavenger assemblages. Vertebrate scavenger richness ranged from species‐poor to species rich assemblages (4–30 species). Both scavenger richness and diversity also showed some seasonal variation. However, in general, climatic variables did not drive latitudinal patterns, as scavenger richness and diversity were not affected by temperature or rainfall. Rainfall seasonality slightly increased the number of species in the community, but its effect was weak. Instead, the human impact index included in our study was the main predictor of scavenger richness. Scavenger assemblages in highly human‐impacted areas sustained the smallest number of scavenger species, suggesting human activity may be overriding other macroecological processes in shaping scavenger communities. Our results highlight the effect of human impact at a global scale. As species‐rich assemblages tend to be more functional, we warn about possible reductions in ecosystem functions and the services provided by scavengers in human‐dominated landscapes in the Anthropocene.

Description: This article emphasizes on biological interactions as an important overlooked criterion to better assess the chance of target marine species in potential refugia to survive climate change. It proposes future climate change refugia studies must consider the reciprocal interactions among climate change, biological factor, and conservation strategies.

Description: We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intraspecific level. We combined correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics, and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We applied the framework to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intraspecific level. Abstract Ongoing global warming is disrupting several ecological and evolutionary processes, spanning different levels of biological organization. Species are expected to shift their ranges as a response to climate change, with relevant implications to peripheral populations at the trailing and leading edges. Several studies have analyzed the exposure of species to climate change but few have explored exposure at the intraspecific level. We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intraspecific level. We build on existing methods by combining correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics, and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. Our aims were to: (a) identify which species and intraspecific lineages will be most exposed to future climate change; (b) test if nucleotide diversity at the edges of species ranges are significantly higher or lower than on the overall range; and (c) analyze if areas of higher species gain, loss, and turnover coincide with those predicted for lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intraspecific level. Some species had significant high amount of nucleotide at the trailing or leading edge, or both, but we did not find a consistent pattern across species. Spatial patterns of species richness, gain, loss, and turnover were fairly concurrent with lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. Our results support the need for increased attention to intraspecific diversity regarding monitoring and conservation strategies under climate change.

Description: Through meta‐analysis, we assessed the relative importance of multiple global change drivers in determining long‐term changes in population abundance of European amphibians and reptiles. Population trends are driven by the combined effects of alien species, climate change, habitat features, and habitat changes, with complex joint and interactive effects among factors. Even though we identified general patterns in the response to some environmental drivers, it is important to consider that the same factors can act differently among taxonomic groups; for instance, habitat change showed a contrasting effect across species and its crucial role was only evident for a subset of them. Abstract The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multivariable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta‐regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time series of population abundance from 17 European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1%/year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline.

Description: New data‐driven estimates of cropland‐nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions across China in 1990–2014 improves our understanding of their historical trends and associated drivers. The data illuminate a direct evidence of the nationwide deceleration of cropland‐N2O emissions since 2003, mainly due to policy‐driven reduction of nitrogen‐fertilizer applied per area. These findings that challenge the traditional views about the continuous increase in cropland‐N2O emissions in China, underline the potential value of local policy interventions for future projections. Abstract China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands; yet, the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here, we provide new data‐driven estimates of cropland‐N2O emissions across China in 1990–2014, compiled using a global cropland‐N2O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey‐based reconstruction of N‐fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland‐N2O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that China's annual cropland‐N2O emissions increased on average by 11.2 Gg N/year2 (p 〈 .001) from 1990 to 2003, after which emissions plateaued until 2014 (2.8 Gg N/year2, p = .02), consistent with the output from an ensemble of process‐based terrestrial biosphere models. The slowdown of the increase in cropland‐N2O emissions after 2003 was pervasive across two thirds of China's sowing areas. This change was mainly driven by the nationwide reduction in N‐fertilizer applied per area, partially due to the prevalence of nationwide technological adoptions. This reduction has almost offset the N2O emissions induced by policy‐driven expansion of sowing areas, particularly in the Northeast Plain and the lower Yangtze River Basin. Our results underline the importance of high‐resolution activity data and adoption of nonlinear model of N2O emission for capturing cropland‐N2O emission changes. Improving the representation of policy interventions is also recommended for future projections.

Description: Abstract Terrestrial photosynthesis is the largest and one of the most uncertain fluxes in the global carbon cycle. We find that NIRV, a remotely sensed measure of canopy structure, accurately predicts photosynthesis at FLUXNET validation sites at monthly to annual timescales (R2 = 0.68), without the need for difficult to acquire information about environmental factors that constrain photosynthesis at short timescales. Scaling the relationship between GPP and NIRV from FLUXNET eddy covariance sites, we estimate global annual terrestrial photosynthesis to be 147 Pg C y−1 (95% credible interval 131‐163 Pg C y−1), which falls between bottom‐up GPP estimates and the top‐down global constraint on GPP from oxygen isotopes. NIRV‐derived estimates of GPP are systematically higher than existing bottom‐up estimates, especially throughout the mid‐latitudes. Progress in improving estimated GPP from NIRV can come from improved cloud‐screening in satellite data and increased resolution of vegetation characteristics, especially photosynthetic pathway. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This study decomposes the annual net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, α and β, that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum carbon sink and source, respectively. We found that MCU is the dominant driver (48%) of interannual variation (IAV) in global NEE followed by CUP (25%), α (14%), MCR (8%) and β (2%). The relative importance of these indicators varies, however, as a function of vegetation type and with latitude. Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems contribute most of the interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, but processes driving the IAV of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) remain elusive. For a predictive understanding of the global C cycle, it is imperative to identify indicators associated with ecological processes that determine the IAV of NEE. Here, we decompose the annual NEE of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, α and β, that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum C sink and source, respectively. Using long‐term observed NEE from 66 eddy covariance sites and global products derived from FLUXNET observations, we found that the IAV of NEE is determined predominately by MCU at the global scale, which explains 48% of the IAV of NEE on average while α, CUP, β, and MCR explain 14%, 25%, 2%, and 8%, respectively. These patterns differ in water‐limited ecosystems versus temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems; 31% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of CUP in water‐limited ecosystems, and 60% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of MCU in temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems. The Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena (LPJ) model and the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Inter‐comparison Project (MsTMIP) models underestimate the contribution of MCU to the IAV of NEE by about 18% on average, and overestimate the contribution of CUP by about 25%. This study provides a new perspective on the proximate causes of the IAV of NEE, which suggest that capturing the variability of MCU is critical for modeling the IAV of NEE across most of the global land surface.

Description: Using an 18‐year time series, our study reveals regionwide shifts in kelp forest recycled nutrient regimes as the result of climate anomalies, disease, and fishing pressure. Sea stars, an important group of nutrient recyclers, underwent major population declines as a result of disease outbreaks exacerbated by the 2014–2015 warming period, consequently reducing inputs of excreted ammonium from reef invertebrates by ~80%. Yet the loss of this source of ammonium was compensated in part by a concomitant increase in the abundance of spiny lobsters associated with synergies between warming and increased protections from fishing, resulting in a community shift in recycled nutrient regimes. Abstract Globally, anthropogenic pressures are reducing the abundances of marine species and altering ecosystems through modification of trophic interactions. Yet, consumer declines also disrupt important bottom‐up processes, like nutrient recycling, which are critical for ecosystem functioning. Consumer‐mediated nutrient dynamics (CND) is now considered a major biogeochemical component of most ecosystems, but lacking long‐term studies, it is difficult to predict how CND will respond to accelerating disturbances in the wake of global change. To aid such predictions, we coupled empirical ammonium excretion rates with an 18‐year time series of the standing biomass of common benthic macroinvertebrates in southern California kelp forests. This time series of excretion rates encompassed an extended period of extreme ocean warming, disease outbreaks, and the abolishment of fishing at two of our study sites, allowing us to assess kelp forest CND across a wide range of environmental conditions. At their peak, reef invertebrates supplied an average of 18.3 ± 3.0 µmol NH4+ m−2 hr−1 to kelp forests when sea stars were regionally abundant, but dropped to 3.5 ± 1.0 µmol NH4+ m−2 hr−1 following their mass mortality due to disease during a prolonged period of extreme warming. However, a coincident increase in the abundance of the California spiny lobster, Palinurus interupptus (Randall, 1840), likely in response to both reduced fishing and a warmer ocean, compensated for much of the recycled ammonium lost to sea star mortality. Both lobsters and sea stars are widely recognized as key predators that can profoundly influence community structure in benthic marine systems. Our study is the first to demonstrate their importance in nutrient cycling, thus expanding their roles in the ecosystem. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of warming events, and rising human populations are intensifying fishing pressure in coastal ecosystems worldwide. Our study documents how these projected global changes can drive regime shifts in CND and fundamentally alter a critical ecosystem function.

Description: Fire refugia (i.e. unburnt patches) are important for the persistence of fire‐sensitive species in forests, though the fate of fire refugia under climate change is unknown. Quantification of the relative effects of climate and landscape factors on refugia patterns across Australian temperate forests revealed that fire weather and drought override the effect of topography and fuel age on fire refugia, with less refugia being present under severe fire weather and intense drought. Climate change is likely to lead to the contraction and loss of persistent fire refugia across temperate forests of southern Australia. Abstract Wildfire refugia (unburnt patches within large wildfires) are important for the persistence of fire‐sensitive species across forested landscapes globally. A key challenge is to identify the factors that determine the distribution of fire refugia across space and time. In particular, determining the relative influence of climatic and landscape factors is important in order to understand likely changes in the distribution of wildfire refugia under future climates. Here, we examine the relative effect of weather (i.e. fire weather, drought severity) and landscape features (i.e. topography, fuel age, vegetation type) on the occurrence of fire refugia across 26 large wildfires in south‐eastern Australia. Fire weather and drought severity were the primary drivers of the occurrence of fire refugia, moderating the effect of landscape attributes. Unburnt patches rarely occurred under ‘severe’ fire weather, irrespective of drought severity, topography, fuels or vegetation community. The influence of drought severity and landscape factors played out most strongly under ‘moderate’ fire weather. In mesic forests, fire refugia were linked to variables that affect fuel moisture, whereby the occurrence of unburnt patches decreased with increasing drought conditions and were associated with more mesic topographic locations (i.e. gullies, pole‐facing aspects) and vegetation communities (i.e. closed‐forest). In dry forest, the occurrence of refugia was responsive to fuel age, being associated with recently burnt areas (〈5 years since fire). Overall, these results show that increased severity of fire weather and increased drought conditions, both predicted under future climate scenarios, are likely to lead to a reduction of wildfire refugia across forests of southern Australia. Protection of topographic areas able to provide long‐term fire refugia will be an important step towards maintaining the ecological integrity of forests under future climate change.

Description: We proposed a top‐down linkage between the high‐latitude atmospheric blocking to low‐latitude phytoplankton variation in the eastern North Pacific transition zone. The high‐latitude atmospheric blocking over Alaska significantly reduced westerly winds over the subarctic gyre in the northeast Pacific through blocking. As a result, southward horizontal Ekman transport was reduced, resulting in lower nutrient availability to phytoplankton in the transition zone and a reduction of phytoplantkon. Abstract Global climate change can significantly influence oceanic phytoplankton dynamics, and thus biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs. However, associative explanations based on the correlation between chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl‐a) and climatic indices is inadequate to describe the mechanism of the connection between climate change, large‐scale atmospheric dynamics, and phytoplankton variability. Here, by analyzing multiple satellite observations of Chl‐a and atmospheric conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets, we show that high‐latitude atmospheric blocking events over Alaska are the primary drivers of the recent decline of Chl‐a in the eastern North Pacific transition zone. These blocking events were associated with the persistence of large‐scale atmosphere pressure fields that decreased westerly winds and southward Ekman transport over the subarctic ocean gyre. Reduced southward Ekman transport leads to reductions in nutrient availability to phytoplankton in the transition zone. The findings describe a previously unidentified climatic factor that contributed to the recent decline of phytoplankton in this region and propose a mechanism of the top‐down teleconnection between the high‐latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies and the subtropical oceanic primary productivity. The results also highlight the importance of understanding teleconnection among atmosphere–ocean interactions as a means to anticipate future climate change impacts on oceanic primary production.

Description: A grand challenge in biology is forecasting which species will be most vulnerable to drought, given that drought severity is increasing and can vary due to the impacts of subtle interannual climate variability and species‐level tolerances. We show that long‐term experimental drought has led to major die‐offs of dominant species in the Colorado Plateau Desert. Our 8 year experiment used 40 sites distributed across climate, plant, and soil types to track the effects of subtle interannual climate variability. Ambient drought also resulted in widespread mortality, indicating that climate change is already impacting these dryland systems. Overall, results from this experiment suggest major shifts in ecosystem function, and also an increased ability to predict responses by understanding biotic–abiotic interactions. Abstract Droughts in the southwest United States have led to major forest and grassland die‐off events in recent decades, suggesting plant community and ecosystem shifts are imminent as native perennial grass populations are replaced by shrub‐ and invasive plant‐dominated systems. These patterns are similar to those observed in arid and semiarid systems around the globe, but our ability to predict which species will experience increased drought‐induced mortality in response to climate change remains limited. We investigated meteorological drought‐induced mortality of nine dominant plant species in the Colorado Plateau Desert by experimentally imposing a year‐round 35% precipitation reduction for eight continuous years. We distributed experimental plots across numerous plant, soil, and parent material types, resulting in 40 distinct sites across a 4,500 km2 region of the Colorado Plateau Desert. For all 8 years, we tracked c. 400 individual plants and evaluated mortality responses to treatments within and across species, and through time. We also examined the influence of abiotic and biotic site factors in driving mortality responses. Overall, high mortality trends were driven by dominant grass species, including Achnatherum hymenoides, Pleuraphis jamesii, and Sporobolus cryptandrus. Responses varied widely from year to year and dominant shrub species were generally resistant to meteorological drought, likely due to their ability to access deeper soil water. Importantly, mortality increased in the presence of invasive species regardless of treatment, and native plant die‐off occurred even under ambient conditions, suggesting that recent climate changes are already negatively impacting dominant species in these systems. Results from this long‐term drought experiment suggest major shifts in community composition and, as a result, ecosystem function. Patterns also show that, across multiple soil and plant community types, native perennial grass species may be replaced by shrubs and invasive annuals in the Colorado Plateau Desert.

Description: North Atlantic and tropical Pacific modes account for major variations in water availability in the Pyrenees, which has been found to play an important role in mixed Scots pine–European beech forests in both leaf shedding season and nutrient return to forest floor. Large‐scale circulation patterns are predicted to be modified as a consequence of global change, thus impacting leaf litter dynamics of mixed forests. In particular, expected advance of needle shedding and increased N:P ratios can worsen direct effects of droughts by reducing capacity of trees to use water efficiently and the consequent decrease in growth and carbon storage capacity. Abstract Litterfall dynamics (production, seasonality and nutrient composition) are key factors influencing nutrient cycling. Leaf litter characteristics are modified by species composition, site conditions and water availability. However, significant evidence on how large‐scale, global circulation patterns affect ecophysiological processes at tree and ecosystem level remains scarce due to the difficulty in separating the combined influence of different factors on local climate and tree phenology. To fill this gap, we studied links between leaf litter dynamics with climate and other forest processes, such as tree‐ring width (TRW) and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) in two mixtures of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the south‐western Pyrenees. Temporal series (18 years) of litterfall production and elemental chemical composition were decomposed following the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and relationships with local climate, large‐scale climatic indices, TRW and Scots pine's iWUE were assessed. Temporal trends in N:P ratios indicated increasing P limitation of soil microbes, thus affecting nutrient availability, as the ecological succession from a pine‐dominated to a beech‐dominated forest took place. A significant influence of large‐scale patterns on tree‐level ecophysiology was explained through the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on water availability. Positive NAO and negative ENSO were related to dry conditions and, consequently, to early needle shedding and increased N:P ratio of both species. Autumn storm activity appears to be related to premature leaf abscission of European beech. Significant cascading effects from large‐scale patterns on local weather influenced pine TRW and iWUE. These variables also responded to leaf stoichiometry fallen 3 years prior to tree‐ring formation. Our results provide evidence of the cascading effect that variability in global climate circulation patterns can have on ecophysiological processes and stand dynamics in mixed forests.

Description: Seasonal elk migrations occur in multiple herds across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. These migrations are affected by snow melt and forage conditions, both of which are affected by climate. Here, we examine how changes in the snow and forage are affecting elk migration timing across this iconic ecosystem. Abstract Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate‐induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade‐off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd‐level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE‐wide changes—except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green‐up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator–prey dynamics, carnivore–livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Description: Since 1990, the IPCC has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs) including agriculture. Using a database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs, our conclusions are that crop yields decline but with large statistical variation. Livestock effects have almost been quantitatively absent. Mitigation assessments need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security; agriculture has been dealt with inconsistently between the IPCC five ARs. IPCC needs to examine interactions between crop resource use efficiencies and include production and nonproduction aspects of food security. Abstract Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.

Description: Abstract Terrestrial photosynthesis is the largest and one of the most uncertain fluxes in the global carbon cycle. We find that NIRV, a remotely sensed measure of canopy structure, accurately predicts photosynthesis at FLUXNET validation sites at monthly to annual timescales (R2 = 0.68), without the need for difficult to acquire information about environmental factors that constrain photosynthesis at short timescales. Scaling the relationship between GPP and NIRV from FLUXNET eddy covariance sites, we estimate global annual terrestrial photosynthesis to be 147 Pg C y−1 (95% credible interval 131‐163 Pg C y−1), which falls between bottom‐up GPP estimates and the top‐down global constraint on GPP from oxygen isotopes. NIRV‐derived estimates of GPP are systematically higher than existing bottom‐up estimates, especially throughout the mid‐latitudes. Progress in improving estimated GPP from NIRV can come from improved cloud‐screening in satellite data and increased resolution of vegetation characteristics, especially photosynthetic pathway. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global Change Biology, Volume 25, Issue 7, Page e3-e4, July 2019.

Description: Abstract Climate change refugia in the terrestrial biosphere are areas where species are protected from global environmental change and arise from natural heterogeneity in landscapes and climate. Within the marine realm, ocean acidification, or the global decline in seawater pH, remains a pervasive threat to organisms and ecosystems. Natural variability in seawater carbon dioxide (CO2) chemistry, however, presents an opportunity to identify ocean acidification refugia (OAR) for marine species. Here, we review the literature to examine the impacts of variable CO2 chemistry on biological responses to ocean acidification and develop a framework of definitions and criteria that connects current OAR research to management goals. Under the concept of managing vulnerability, the most likely mechanisms by which OAR can mitigate ocean acidification impacts are by reducing exposure to harmful conditions or enhancing adaptive capacity. While local management options such as OAR show some promise, they present unique challenges and reducing global anthropogenic CO2 emissions must remain a priority. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global Change Biology, Volume 25, Issue 7, Page i-ii, July 2019.

Description: We conducted a meta‐analysis on the intraspecific leaf trait variation along elevation in 109 plant species across 92 elevational transects located in 4 continents and reported in 71 studies. We found that there are common patterns of intraspecific leaf trait variation across different plant species and mountain ranges of the world. Since the distribution of mountain biota is predominantly shifting upslope in response to changes in environmental conditions, our results are important to further our understanding of how plants species of mountain ecosystems adapt to global environmental change. Abstract Elevational gradients are often used to quantify how traits of plant species respond to abiotic and biotic environmental variations. Yet, such analyses are frequently restricted spatially and applied along single slopes or mountain ranges. Since we know little on the response of intraspecific leaf traits to elevation across the globe, we here perform a global meta‐analysis of leaf traits in 109 plant species located in 4 continents and reported in 71 studies published between 1983 and 2018. We quantified the intraspecific change in seven morpho‐ecophysiological leaf traits along global elevational gradients: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf area (LA), nitrogen concentration per unit of area (Narea), nitrogen concentration per unit mass (Nmass), phosphorous concentration per unit mass (Pmass) and carbon isotope composition (δ13C). We found LMA, Narea, Nmass and δ13C to significantly increase and SLA to decrease with increasing elevation. Conversely, LA and Pmass showed no significant pattern with elevation worldwide. We found significantly larger increase in Narea, Nmass, Pmass and δ13C with elevation in warmer regions. Larger responses to increasing elevation were apparent for SLA of herbaceous compared to woody species, but not for the other traits. Finally, we also detected evidences of covariation across morphological and physiological traits within the same elevational gradient. In sum, we demonstrate that there are common cross‐species patterns of intraspecific leaf trait variation across elevational gradients worldwide. Irrespective of whether such variation is genetically determined via local adaptation or attributed to phenotypic plasticity, the leaf trait patterns quantified here suggest that plant species are adapted to live on a range of temperature conditions. Since the distribution of mountain biota is predominantly shifting upslope in response to changes in environmental conditions, our results are important to further our understanding of how plants species of mountain ecosystems adapt to global environmental change.

Description: Global Change Biology, Volume 25, Issue 7, Page e5-e5, July 2019.

Description: Using a setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area, our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations. We found strong but gradual changes in body growth, varying with body size. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time. Abstract A challenge facing ecologists trying to predict responses to climate change is the few recent analogous conditions to use for comparison. For example, negative relationships between ectotherm body size and temperature are common both across natural thermal gradients and in small‐scale experiments. However, it is unknown if short‐term body size responses are representative of long‐term responses. Moreover, to understand population responses to warming, we must recognize that individual responses to temperature may vary over ontogeny. To enable predictions of how climate warming may affect natural populations, we therefore ask how body size and growth may shift in response to increased temperature over life history, and whether short‐ and long‐term growth responses differ. We addressed these questions using a unique setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area (both with unexploited populations), using before‐after control‐impact paired time‐series analyses. We assembled individual growth trajectories of ~13,000 unique individuals of Eurasian perch and found that body growth increased substantially after warming, but the extent depended on body size: Only among small‐bodied perch did growth increase with temperature. Moreover, the strength of this response gradually increased over the 24 year warming period. Our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations, resulting in gradual changes in body growth, varying as organisms develop. Although increased juvenile growth rates are in line with predictions of the temperature–size rule, the fact that a larger body size at age was maintained over life history contrasts to that same rule. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time.

Description: Global warming is rapidly advancing the timing of spring leaf‐out in temperate deciduous tree species; however, the interactive effects of temperature and daylength underlying this warming response remain unclear. Based on data from six tree species across 2,377 European phenology observation sites, we found that, in addition to and independent of the known effect of chilling, daylength correlates negatively with the heat requirement for leaf‐out in all studied species. These results provide the first large‐scale empirical evidence of a widespread daylength effect on the temperature sensitivity of leaf‐out phenology in temperate deciduous trees. Abstract Global warming has led to substantially earlier spring leaf‐out in temperate‐zone deciduous trees. The interactive effects of temperature and daylength underlying this warming response remain unclear. However, they need to be accurately represented by earth system models to improve projections of the carbon and energy balances of temperate forests and the associated feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We studied the control of leaf‐out by daylength and temperature using data from six tree species across 2,377 European phenological network (www.pep725.eu), each with at least 30 years of observations. We found that, in addition to and independent of the known effect of chilling, daylength correlates negatively with the heat requirement for leaf‐out in all studied species. In warm springs when leaf‐out is early, days are short and the heat requirement is higher than in an average spring, which mitigates the warming‐induced advancement of leaf‐out and protects the tree against precocious leaf‐out and the associated risks of late frosts. In contrast, longer‐than‐average daylength (in cold springs when leaf‐out is late) reduces the heat requirement for leaf‐out, ensuring that trees do not leaf‐out too late and miss out on large amounts of solar energy. These results provide the first large‐scale empirical evidence of a widespread daylength effect on the temperature sensitivity of leaf‐out phenology in temperate deciduous trees.

Description: Are there non‐native marine species in Antarctica? With over 500 visits from more than 180 vessels annually and rapidly changing environmental conditions, Antarctica appears to be increasingly vulnerable to impacts from non‐native marine species. We explore factors that influence the likelihood of non‐native marine species establishing in the Antarctic region, present new estimates for human activity, and make recommendations to researchers, environmental managers and policy makers. Abstract Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non‐native marine species. Non‐native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non‐native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non‐native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non‐native marine species is limited: just four marine non‐native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub‐Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well‐informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.

Description: To better understand the ecological impacts of climate warming‐induced increases in boreal wildfire activity, we investigated fungal communities after an extreme fire event at 47 locations in the Northwest Territories, Canada. We found that fungal communities were primarily determined by edaphic factors (pH) but greater fire severity led to declines in richness and diversity of total fungi, mycorrhizas, and saprotrophs. Combined with our demonstration of important correlations between mycorrhizas and vascular plants after fire, our study enhances understanding of how large fire disturbances alter soil microbial communities that drive ecosystem functioning and affect plant community structure. Abstract Wildfire is the dominant disturbance in boreal forests and fire activity is increasing in these regions. Soil fungal communities are important for plant growth and nutrient cycling postfire but there is little understanding of how fires impact fungal communities across landscapes, fire severity gradients, and stand types in boreal forests. Understanding relationships between fungal community composition, particularly mycorrhizas, and understory plant composition is therefore important in predicting how future fire regimes may affect vegetation. We used an extreme wildfire event in boreal forests of Canada's Northwest Territories to test drivers of fungal communities and assess relationships with plant communities. We sampled soils from 39 plots 1 year after fire and 8 unburned plots. High‐throughput sequencing (MiSeq, ITS) revealed 2,034 fungal operational taxonomic units. We found soil pH and fire severity (proportion soil organic layer combusted), and interactions between these drivers were important for fungal community structure (composition, richness, diversity, functional groups). Where fire severity was low, samples with low pH had higher total fungal, mycorrhizal, and saprotroph richness compared to where severity was high. Increased fire severity caused declines in richness of total fungi, mycorrhizas, and saprotrophs, and declines in diversity of total fungi and mycorrhizas. The importance of stand age (a surrogate for fire return interval) for fungal composition suggests we could detect long‐term successional patterns even after fire. Mycorrhizal and plant community composition, richness, and diversity were weakly but significantly correlated. These weak relationships and the distribution of fungi across plots suggest that the underlying driver of fungal community structure is pH, which is modified by fire severity. This study shows the importance of edaphic factors in determining fungal community structure at large scales, but suggests these patterns are mediated by interactions between fire and forest stand composition.

Description: The goal of this comment is to show that the “aggregate reactor” framework recently proposed in an article published in this journal is severely limited by two kinds of indeterminacy. The first is related to the size of aggregates, which is not defined precisely. The second issue is with the impossibility to replicate boundary conditions that are identical to what chunks of soils would have experienced in their natural state. We suggest that the study of GHG release in undisturbed soil samples is a better way to proceed forward.

Description: We used satellite‐derived leaf chlorophyll content (Chlleaf) to infer leaf photosynthetic capacity () that varies temporally and spatially. The new Chlleaf‐based data set was then incorporated into an established terrestrial biosphere model (i.e. BEPS) to estimate global photosynthesis. Our results show that Chlleaf‐based and its seasonally average values (Chlavg‐based ) can both effectively improve the estimates of photosynthesis when validated against observations at 124 sites of different plant functional types across the globe. This study highlights that Chlleaf is a valuable leaf physiological trait to add in future models to better simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle. Abstract The terrestrial biosphere plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by absorbing anthropogenic CO2 emissions through photosynthesis. The rate of photosynthesis is determined jointly by environmental variables and the intrinsic photosynthetic capacity of plants (i.e. maximum carboxylation rate; ). A lack of an effective means to derive spatially and temporally explicit has long hampered efforts towards estimating global photosynthesis accurately. Recent work suggests that leaf chlorophyll content (Chlleaf) is strongly related to , since Chlleaf and are both correlated with photosynthetic nitrogen content. We used medium resolution satellite images to derive spatially and temporally explicit Chlleaf, which we then used to parameterize within a terrestrial biosphere model. Modelled photosynthesis estimates were evaluated against measured photosynthesis at 124 eddy covariance sites. The inclusion of Chlleaf in a terrestrial biosphere model improved the spatial and temporal variability of photosynthesis estimates, reducing biases at eddy covariance sites by 8% on average, with the largest improvements occurring for croplands (21% bias reduction) and deciduous forests (15% bias reduction). At the global scale, the inclusion of Chlleaf reduced terrestrial photosynthesis estimates by 9 PgC/year and improved the correlations with a reconstructed solar‐induced fluorescence product and a gridded photosynthesis product upscaled from tower measurements. We found positive impacts of Chlleaf on modelled photosynthesis for deciduous forests, croplands, grasslands, savannas and wetlands, but mixed impacts for shrublands and evergreen broadleaf forests and negative impacts for evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests. Our results highlight the potential of Chlleaf to reduce the uncertainty of global photosynthesis but identify challenges for incorporating Chlleaf in future terrestrial biosphere models.

Description: In response to sea‐level rise, barrier islands tend to migrate landward via overwash in which sediment is deposited onto the backbarrier marsh. We assessed the importance of interior upland vegetation on the movement of the marsh–upland boundary in a transgressive barrier system. Over time, disturbance‐resisting landscapes with greater topographic variability and vegetative cover resulted in higher rates of shoreline erosion, and little to no marsh to upland conversion (a). Disturbance‐reinforcing landscapes have lower topographic relief, sparse vegetation, and experienced higher rates of marsh to upland conversion (b). We demonstrate the importance of interior island ecological processes on barrier island migration. Abstract Due to their position at the land–sea interface, barrier islands are vulnerable to both oceanic and atmospheric climate change‐related drivers. In response to relative sea‐level rise, barrier islands tend to migrate landward via overwash processes which deposit sediment onto the backbarrier marsh, thus maintaining elevation above sea level. In this paper, we assess the importance of interior upland vegetation and sediment transport (from upland to marsh) on the movement of the marsh–upland boundary in a transgressive barrier system along the mid‐Atlantic Coast. We hypothesize that recent woody expansion is altering the rate of marsh to upland conversion. Using Landsat imagery over a 32 year time period (1984–2016), we quantify transitions between land cover (bare, grassland, woody vegetation, and marsh) and the marsh–upland boundary. We find that the Virginia Barrier Islands have both gains and losses in backbarrier marsh and upland, with 19% net loss from the system during the timeframe of the study and increased variance in marsh to upland conversion. This is consistent with recent work indicating a shift toward increasing rates of landward barrier island migration. Despite a net loss of upland area, macroclimatic winter warming resulted in 41% increase in woody vegetation in protected, low‐elevation areas, introducing new ecological scenarios that increase resistance to sediment movement from upland to marsh. Our analysis demonstrates how the interplay between elevation and interior island vegetative cover influences landward migration of the boundary between upland and marsh (a previously underappreciated indicator that an island is migrating), and thus, the importance of including ecological processes in the island interior into coastal modeling of barrier island migration and sediment movement across the barrier landscape.