ALBERT

Description: The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25 °C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5 °C for G. pallida , whilst females per plant were optimal between 17.5 and 22.5 °C for G. rostochiensis . Relative reproductive success with temperature was confirmed on two potato cultivars infected with either species at 15, 22.5 and 25 °C. The reduced reproductive success of G. pallida at 22.5 °C relative to 15 °C was also recorded for a further seven host cultivars studied. The differences in optimal temperatures for reproductive success may relate to known differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Exposure of G. pallida to a diurnal temperature stress for one week during female growth significantly suppressed subsequent growth for one week at 17.5 °C but had no effect on G. rostochiensis . However, after two weeks of recovery female size was not significantly different from that for the control treatment. Future soil temperatures were simulated for medium and high emissions scenarios and combined with nematode growth data to project future implications of climate change for the two species. Increased soil temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the pest status of G. pallida but benefit G. rostochiensis especially in southern UK. We conclude that plant breeders may be able to exploit the thermal limits of G. pallida by developing potato cultivars able to grow under future warm summer conditions. Existing widely deployed resistance to G. rostochiensis is an important characteristic to retain for new potato cultivars. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The phenology of diameter-growth cessation in trees will likely play a key role in mediating species and ecosystem responses to climate change. A common expectation is that warming will delay cessation, but the environmental and genetic influences on this process are poorly understood. We modeled the effects of temperature, photoperiod and seed-source climate on diameter-growth cessation timing in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree) using high-frequency growth measurements across broad environmental gradients for a range of genotypes from different seed sources. Our model suggests that cool temperatures or short photoperiods can induce cessation in autumn. At cool locations (high latitude and elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by low temperatures in early autumn (under relatively long photoperiods), so warming will likely delay cessation and extend the growing season. But at warm locations (low latitude or elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by short photoperiods later in autumn, so warming will likely lead to only slight extensions of the growing season, reflecting photoperiod limitations on phenological shifts. Trees from seed sources experiencing frequent frosts in autumn or early winter tended to cease growth earlier in the autumn, potentially as an adaptation to avoid frost. Thus, gene flow into populations in warm locations with little frost will likely have limited potential to delay mean cessation dates because these populations already cease growth relatively late. In addition, data from an abnormal heat wave suggested that very high temperatures during long photoperiods in early summer might also induce cessation. Climate change could make these conditions more common in warm locations, leading to much earlier cessation. Thus, photoperiod cues, patterns of genetic variation and summer heat waves could limit the capacity of coast Douglas-fir to extend its growing season in response to climate change in the warm parts of its range. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Because the capability of terrestrial ecosystems to fix carbon is constrained by nutrient availability, understanding how nutrients limit plant growth is a key contemporary question. However, what drives nutrient limitations at global scale remains to be clarified. Using global data on plant growth, plant nutritive status, and soil fertility, we investigated to which extent soil parent materials explain nutrient limitations. We found that N limitation was not linked to soil parent materials, but was best explained by climate: ecosystems under harsh (i.e. cold and or dry) climates were more N-limited than ecosystems under more favourable climates. Contrary to N limitation, P limitation was not driven by climate, but by soil parent materials. The influence of soil parent materials was the result of the tight link between actual P pools of soils and physical-chemical properties (acidity; P richness) of soil parent materials. Some other ground-related factors (i.e. soil weathering stage, landform) had a noticeable influence on P limitation, but their role appeared to be relatively smaller than that of geology. The relative importance of N limitation versus P limitation was explained by a combination of climate and soil parent material: at global scale, N limitation became prominent with increasing climatic constraints, but this global trend was modulated at lower scales by the effect of parent materials on P limitation, particularly under climates favourable to biological activity. As compared with soil parent materials, atmospheric deposition had only a weak influence on the global distribution of actual nutrient limitation. Our work advances our understanding of the distribution of nutrient limitation at global scale. In particular, it stresses the need to take soil parent materials into account when investigating plant growth response to environment changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Agricultural land use results in multiple stressors affecting stream ecosystems. Flow reduction due to water abstraction, elevated levels of nutrients and chemical contaminants are common agricultural stressors worldwide. Concurrently, stream ecosystems are also increasingly affected by climate change. Interactions among multiple co-occurring stressors result in biological responses that cannot be predicted from single-stressor effects (i.e. synergisms and antagonisms). At the ecosystem level, multiple-stressor effects can be further modified by biotic interactions (e.g. trophic interactions). We conducted a field experiment using 128 flow-through stream mesocosms to examine the individual and combined effects of water abstraction, nutrient enrichment and elevated levels of the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD) on survival, condition and gut content of juvenile brown trout, and on benthic abundance of their invertebrate prey. Flow velocity reduction decreased fish survival (-12% compared to controls) and condition (-8% compared to initial condition), whereas effects of nutrient and DCD additions and interactions among these stressors were not significant. Negative effects of flow velocity reduction on fish survival and condition were consistent with effects on fish gut content (-25% compared to controls) and abundance of dominant invertebrate prey (-30%), suggesting a negative metabolic balance driving fish mortality and condition decline, which was confirmed by structural equation modelling. Fish mortality under reduced flow velocity increased as maximal daily water temperatures approached the upper limit of their tolerance range, reflecting synergistic interactions between these stressors. Our study highlights the importance of indirect stressor effects such as those transferred through trophic interactions, which need to be considered when assessing and managing fish populations and stream food webs in multiple-stressor situations. However, in real streams compensatory mechanisms, behavioural responses, as well as seasonal and spatial variation may alter the intensity of stressor effects and the sensitivity of trout populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding how historical processes modulate the response of ecosystems to perturbations is becoming increasingly important. In contrast to the growing interest in projecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under future climate scenarios, how legacy effects originating from historical conditions drive change in ecosystems remains largely unexplored. Using experiments in combination with Stochastic Antecedent Modelling, we evaluated how extreme warming, sediment deposition and grazing events modulated the ecological memory of rocky intertidal epilithic microphytobenthos (EMPB). We found memory effects in the non-clustered scenario of disturbance (60 days apart), where EMPB biomass fluctuated in time, but not under clustered disturbances (15 days apart), where EMPB biomass was consistently low. A massive grazing event impacted on EMPB biomass in a second run of the experiment, also muting ecological memory. Our results provide empirical support to the theoretical expectation that stochastic fluctuations promote ecological memory, but also show that contingencies may lead to memory loss. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Precipitation patterns are changing across the globe causing more severe and frequent drought for many forest ecosystems. Although research has focused on the resistance of tree populations and communities to these novel precipitation regimes, resilience of forests is also contingent on recovery following drought, which remains poorly understood, especially in aseasonal tropical forests. We used rainfall exclusion shelters to manipulate the inter-annual frequency of drought for diverse seedling communities in a tropical forest and assessed resistance, recovery and resilience of seedling growth and mortality relative to everwet conditions. We found seedlings exposed to recurrent periods of drought altered their growth rates throughout the year relative to seedlings in everwet conditions. During drought periods seedlings grew slower than seedlings in everwet conditions (i.e. resistance phase) while compensating with faster growth after drought (i.e. recovery phase). However, the response to frequent drought was species dependent as some species grew significantly slower with frequent drought relative to everwet conditions while others grew faster with frequent drought due to overcompensating growth during the recovery phase. In contrast, mortality was unrelated to rainfall conditions and instead correlated with differences in light. Intra-annual plasticity of growth and increased annual growth of some species led to an overall maintenance of growth rates of tropical seedling communities in response to more frequent drought. These results suggest these communities can potentially adapt to predicted climate change scenarios and that plasticity in the growth of species, and not solely changes in mortality rates among species, may contribute to shifts in community composition under drought. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot ( Poicephalus robustus ), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modelled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees ( Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp .), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤ 227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤ 41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover, and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recent observations confirm the rising temperatures of Atlantic waters transported into the Arctic Ocean via the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). We studied the overall abundance and population structure of the North Atlantic keystone zooplankton copepod Calanus finmarchicus , which is the main prey for pelagic fish and some seabirds, in relation to selected environmental variables in this area between 2001 and 2011, when warming in the Arctic and Subarctic was particularly pronounced. Sampling within a three-week time window each summer demonstrated that trends in the overall abundance of C. finmarchicus varied between years, with the highest values in “extreme” years, due to high numbers of nauplii and early copepodite stages in colder years (2001, 2004, 2010), and contrary to that, the fifth copepodite stage (C5) peaking in warm years (2006, 2007, 2009). The most influential environmental variable, driving C. finmarchicus life cycle was temperature, which promoted an increased C5 abundance when the temperature was above 6°C, indicating earlier spawning and/or accelerated development, and possibly leading to their development to adults later in the summer and spawning for the second time, given adequate food supply. Based on the presented high interannual and spatial variability, we hypothesize that under a warmer climate, C. finmarchicus may annually produce two generations in the southern part of the WSC, what in turn could lead to food web reorganization of important top predators, such as little auks, and induce northward migrations of fish, especially the Norwegian herring. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual (BAMBU) and sustainable European development goals (SEDG). We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Earth is experiencing multiple global changes that will, together, determine the fate of many species. Yet, how biological communities respond to concurrent stressors at local-to-regional scales remains largely unknown. In particular, understanding how local habitat conversion interacts with regional climate change to shape patterns in β-diversity—differences among sites in their species compositions—is critical to forecast communities in the Anthropocene. Here, we study patterns in bird β-diversity across land-use and precipitation gradients in Costa Rica. We mapped forest cover, modeled regional precipitation, and collected data on bird community composition, vegetation structure, and tree diversity across 120 sites on 20 farms to answer three questions. First, do bird communities respond more strongly to changes in land use or climate in northwest Costa Rica? Second, does habitat conversion eliminate β-diversity across climate gradients? Third, does regional climate control how communities respond to habitat conversion and, if so, how? After correcting for imperfect detection, we found that local land-use determined community shifts along the climate gradient. In forests, bird communities were distinct between sites that differed in vegetation structure or precipitation. In agriculture, however, vegetation structure was more uniform, contributing to 7%–11% less bird turnover than in forests. In addition, bird responses to agriculture and climate were linked: agricultural communities across the precipitation gradient shared more species with dry than wet forest communities. These findings suggest that habitat conversion and anticipated climate drying will act together to exacerbate biotic homogenization. Species’ abundance responses to land-use and precipitation gradients were highly correlated (a). That is, species that thrived in forests tended to be more abundant in wet regions (e.g., the pictured Barred Antshrike, Thamnophilus doliatus ), while species that benefited from agriculture tended to reach maximal abundances in drier regions (e.g., Red-winged Blackbird, Agelaius phoeniceus ). Thus, the average agricultural bird community was more dissimilar to communities found in wet forests than communities found in dry forests (b).

Description: Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, but also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasises the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Cocoa agroforestry is perceived as potential adaptation strategy to sub-optimal or adverse environmental conditions such as drought. We tested this strategy over wet, dry and extremely dry periods comparing cocoa in full sun with agroforestry systems: shaded by (i) a leguminous tree species, Albizia ferruginea and (ii) Antiaris toxicaria, the most common shade tree species in the region. We monitored micro-climate, sap flux density, throughfall and soil water content from November 2014 to March 2016 at the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana with climate and drought events during the study period serving as proxy for projected future climatic conditions in marginal cocoa cultivation areas of West Africa. Combined transpiration of cocoa and shade trees was significantly higher than cocoa in full sun during wet and dry periods. During wet period, transpiration rate of cocoa plants shaded by A. ferruginea was significantly lower than cocoa under A. toxicaria and full sun. During the extreme drought of 2015/16, all cocoa plants under A. ferruginea died. Cocoa plants under A. toxicaria suffered 77% mortality and massive stress with significantly reduced sap flux density of 115 gcm −2 d −1 whereas cocoa in full sun maintained higher sap flux density of 170 gcm −2 d −1 . Moreover, cocoa sap flux recovery after the extreme drought was significantly higher in full sun (163 gcm −2 d −1 ) than under A. toxicaria (37 g cm −2 d −1 ). Soil water content in full sun was higher than in shaded systems suggesting that cocoa mortality in the shaded systems was linked to strong competition for soil water. The present results have major implications for cocoa cultivation under climate change. Promoting shade cocoa agroforestry as drought resilient system especially under climate change needs to be carefully reconsidered as shade tree species such as the recommended leguminous A. ferruginea constitute major risk to cocoa functioning under extended severe drought. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Warmer climates have been associated with reduced bioreactivity of soil organic matter (SOM) typically attributed to increased diagenesis; the combined biological and physiochemical transformation of SOM. Additionally, cross site studies have indicated that ecosystem regime shifts, associated with long-term climate warming, can affect SOM properties through changes in vegetation and plant litter production thereby altering the composition of soil inputs. The relative importance of these two controls, diagenesis and inputs, on SOM properties as ecosystems experience climate warming, however, remains poorly understood. To address this issue we characterized the elemental, chemical (nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and total hydrolysable amino acids analysis), and isotopic composition of plant litter and SOM across a well-constrained mesic boreal forest latitudinal transect in Atlantic Canada. Results across forest sites within each of three climate regions indicated that (1) climate history and diagenesis affect distinct parameters of SOM chemistry, (2) increases in SOM bioreactivity with latitude were associated with elevated proportions of carbohydrates relative to plant waxes and lignin, and (3) despite the common forest type across regions, differences in SOM chemistry by climate region were associated with chemically distinct litter inputs and not different degrees of diagenesis. The observed climate effects on vascular plant litter chemistry, however, explained only part of the regional differences in SOM chemistry, most notably the higher protein content of SOM from warmer regions. Greater proportions of lignin and aliphatic compounds and smaller proportions of carbohydrates in warmer sites’ soils were explained by the higher proportion of vascular plant relative to moss litter in the warmer relative to cooler forests. These results indicate that climate change induced decreases in the proportion of moss inputs not only impacts SOM chemistry but also increases the resistance of SOM to decomposition, thus significantly altering SOM cycling in these boreal forest soils. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) characterizes the physiological control on the simultaneous exchange of water and carbon dioxide in terrestrial ecosystems. Knowledge of iWUE is commonly gained from leaf-level gas exchange measurements, which are inevitably restricted in their spatial and temporal coverage. Flux measurements based on the eddy covariance (EC) technique can overcome these limitations, as they provide continuous and long-term records of carbon and water fluxes at the ecosystem scale. However, vegetation gas exchange parameters derived from EC data are subject to scale-dependent and method-specific uncertainties that compromise their ecophysiological interpretation as well as their comparability among ecosystems and across spatial scales. Here, we use estimates of canopy conductance and gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from EC data to calculate a measure of iWUE ( G 1 ,”stomatal slope”) at the ecosystem level at six sites comprising tropical, Mediterranean, temperate, and boreal forests. We assess the following six mechanisms potentially causing discrepancies between leaf and ecosystem-level estimates of G 1 : 1) non-transpirational water fluxes; 2) aerodynamic conductance; 3) meteorological deviations between measurement height and canopy surface; 4) energy balance non-closure; 5) uncertainties in NEE partitioning; and 6) physiological within-canopy gradients. Our results demonstrate that an unclosed energy balance caused the largest uncertainties, in particular if it was associated with erroneous latent heat flux estimates. The effect of aerodynamic conductance on G 1 was sufficiently captured with a simple representation. G 1 was found to be less sensitive to meteorological deviations between canopy surface and measurement height and, given that data are appropriately filtered, to non-transpirational water fluxes. Uncertainties in the derived GPP and physiological within-canopy gradients and their implications for parameter estimates at leaf and ecosystem level are discussed. Our results highlight the importance of adequately considering the sources of uncertainty outlined here when EC-derived WUE is interpreted in an ecophysiological context. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Natural disturbance regimes are changing substantially in forests around the globe. However, large-scale disturbance change is modulated by a considerable spatiotemporal variation within biomes. This variation remains incompletely understood particularly in the temperate forests of Europe, for which consistent large-scale disturbance information is lacking. Here our aim was to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances across temperate forest landscapes in Europe using remote sensing data, and determine their underlying drivers. Specifically, we tested two hypotheses: (1) Topography determines the spatial patterns of disturbance, and (2) climatic extremes synchronize natural disturbances across the biome. We used novel Landsat-based maps of forest disturbances 1986-2016 in combination with landscape analysis to compare spatial disturbance patterns across five unmanaged forest landscapes with varying topographic complexity. Furthermore, we analyzed annual estimates of disturbance change for synchronies and tested the influence of climatic extremes on temporal disturbance patterns. Spatial variation in disturbance patterns was substantial across temperate forest landscapes. With increasing topographic complexity, natural disturbance patches were smaller, more complex in shape, more dispersed, and affected a smaller portion of the landscape. Temporal disturbance patterns, however, were strongly synchronized across all landscapes, with three distinct waves of high disturbance activity between 1986 and 2016. All three waves followed years of pronounced drought and high peak wind speeds. Natural disturbances in temperate forest landscapes of Europe are thus spatially diverse but temporally synchronized. We conclude that the ecological effect of natural disturbances (i.e., whether they are homogenizing a landscape or increasing its heterogeneity) is strongly determined by the topographic template. Furthermore, as the strong biome-wide synchronization of disturbances was closely linked to climatic extremes, large-scale disturbance episodes are likely in Europe's temperate forests under climate changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Food security and agriculture productivity assessments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) require a better understanding of how climate and other drivers influence regional crop yields. In this paper, our objective was to identify the climate signal in the realized yields of maize, sorghum, and groundnut in SSA. We explored the relation between crop yields and scale-compatible climate data for the 1962-2014 period using Random Forest, a diagnostic machine learning technique. We found that improved agricultural technology and country fixed effects are three times more important than climate variables for explaining changes in crop yields in SSA. We also found that increasing temperatures reduced yields for all three crops in the temperature range observed in SSA, while precipitation increased yields up to a level roughly matching crop evapotranspiration. Crop yields exhibited both linear and nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation, respectively. For maize, technology steadily increased yields by about 1% (13 kg/ha) per year while increasing temperatures decreased yields by 0.8% (10 kg/ha) per °C. This study demonstrates that although we should expect increases in future crop yields due to improving technology, the potential yields could be progressively reduced due to warmer and drier climates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata , we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically-derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties, and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Land cover maps increasingly underlie research into socioeconomic and environmental patterns and processes, including global change. It is known that map errors impact our understanding of these phenomena, but quantifying these impacts is difficult because many areas lack adequate reference data. We used a highly accurate, high-resolution map of South African cropland to assess 1) the magnitude of error in several current generation land cover maps, and 2) how these errors propagate in downstream studies. We first quantified pixel-wise errors in the cropland classes of four widely used land cover maps at resolutions ranging from 1 to 100 km, then calculated errors in several representative “downstream” (map-based) analyses, including assessments of vegetative carbon stocks, evapotranspiration, crop production, and household food security. We also evaluated maps’ spatial accuracy based on how precisely they could be used to locate specific landscape features. We found that cropland maps can have substantial biases and poor accuracy at all resolutions (e.g. at 1 km resolution, up to ∼ 45% underestimates of cropland (bias) and nearly 50% mean absolute error (MAE, describing accuracy); at 100 km, up to 15% underestimates and nearly 20% MAE). National-scale maps derived from higher resolution imagery were most accurate, followed by multi-map fusion products. Constraining mapped values to match survey statistics may be effective at minimizing bias (provided the statistics are accurate). Errors in downstream analyses could be substantially amplified or muted, depending on the values ascribed to cropland-adjacent covers (e.g. with forest as adjacent cover, carbon map error was 200-500% greater than in input cropland maps, but ∼ 40% less for sparse cover types). The average locational error was 6 km (600%). These findings provide deeper insight into the causes and potential consequences of land cover map error, and suggest several recommendations for land cover map users. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate warming is affecting the structure and function of river ecosystems, including their role in transforming and transporting carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). Predicting how river ecosystems respond to warming has been hindered by a dearth of information about how otherwise well-studied physiological responses to temperature scale from organismal to ecosystem levels. We conducted an ecosystem-level temperature manipulation to quantify how coupling of stream ecosystem metabolism and nutrient uptake responded to a realistic warming scenario. A ~3.3°C increase in mean water temperature altered coupling of C, N, and P fluxes in ways inconsistent with single-species laboratory experiments. Net primary production tripled during the year of experimental warming, while whole-stream N and P uptake rates did not change, resulting in 289% and 281% increases in autotrophic dissolved inorganic N and P use efficiency (UE), respectively. Increased ecosystem production was a product of unexpectedly large increases in mass-specific net primary production and autotroph biomass, supported by (a) combined increases in resource availability (via N mineralization and N 2 fixation) and (b) elevated resource use efficiency, the latter associated with changes in community structure. These large changes in C and nutrient cycling could not have been predicted from the physiological effects of temperature alone. Our experiment provides clear ecosystem-level evidence that warming can shift the balance between C and nutrient cycling in rivers, demonstrating that warming will alter the important role of in-stream processes in C, N, and P transformations. Moreover, our results reveal a key role for nutrient supply and use efficiency in mediating responses of primary producers to climate warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Frost is an important episodic event that damages plant tissues through the formation of ice crystals at or below freezing temperatures. In montane regions, where climate change is expected to cause earlier snowmelt but may not change the last frost-free day of the year, plants that bud earlier might be directly impacted by frost through damage to flower buds and reproductive structures. However, the indirect effects of frost mediated through changes in plant-pollinator interactions have rarely been explored. We examined the direct and pollinator-mediated indirect effects of frost on three wildflower species in southwestern Colorado, USA, Delphinium barbeyi (Ranunculaceae), Erigeron speciosus (Asteraceae), and Polemonium foliosissimum (Polemoniaceae), by simulating moderate (-1 to -5°C) frost events in early spring in plants in situ . Subsequently, we measured plant growth, and upon flowering measured flower morphology and phenology. Throughout the flowering season, we monitored pollinator visitation and collected seeds to measure plant reproduction. We found that frost had species-specific direct and indirect effects. Frost had direct effects on two of the three species. Frost significantly reduced flower size, total flowers produced, and seed production of Erigeron . Further, frost reduced above-ground plant survival and seed production for Polemonium . However, we found no direct effects of frost on Delphinium . When we considered the indirect impacts of frost mediated through changes in pollinator visitation, one species, Erigeron , incurred indirect, negative effects of frost on plant reproduction through changes in floral traits and pollinator visitation, along with direct effects. Overall, we found that flowering plants exhibited species-specific direct and pollinator-mediated indirect responses to frost, thus suggesting that frost may play an important role in affecting plant communities under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Knowledge of nutrient storage and partitioning in forests is imperative for ecosystem models and ecological theory. Whether the nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg) stored in forest biomass and their partitioning patterns vary systematically across climatic gradients remains unknown. Here, we explored the global-scale patterns of nutrient density and partitioning using a newly compiled dataset including 372 forest stands. We found that temperature and precipitation were key factors driving the nutrients stored in living biomass of forests at global-scale. The N, K, and Mg stored in living biomass tended to be greater in increasingly warm climates. The mean biomass N density was 577.0, 530.4, 513.2, and 336.7 kg/ha for tropical, subtropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. Around 76% of the variation in biomass N density could be accounted by the empirical model combining biomass density, phylogeny (i.e., angiosperm, gymnosperm), and the interaction of mean annual temperature and precipitation. Climate, stand age, and biomass density significantly affected nutrients partitioning at forest community level. The fractional distribution of nutrients to roots decreased significantly with temperature, suggesting that forests in cold climates allocate greater nutrients to roots. Gymnosperm forests tended to allocate more nutrients to leaves as compared with angiosperm forests, whereas the angiosperm forests distributed more nutrients in stems. The nutrient-based Root:Shoot ratios (R:S), averaged 0.30 for R:S N , 0.36 for R:S P , 0.32 for R:S K , 0.27 for R:S C a , and 0.35 for R:S M g , respectively. The scaling exponents of the relationships describing root nutrients as a function of shoot nutrients were more than 1.0, suggesting that as nutrient allocated to shoot increases, nutrient allocated to roots increases faster than linearly with nutrient in shoot. Soil type significantly affected the total N, P, K, Ca, and Mg stored in living biomass of forests, and the Acrisols group displayed the lowest P, K, Ca, and Mg. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: One of the main expected responses of marine fishes to ocean warming is decrease in body size, as supported by evidence from empirical data and theoretical modeling. The theoretical underpinning for fish shrinking is that the oxygen supply to large fish size cannot be met by their gills, whose surface area cannot keep up with the oxygen demand by their three-dimensional bodies. However, Lefevre et al. ( Global Change Biology , 2017, 23, 3449–3459) argue against such theory. Here, we re-assert, with the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT), that gills, which must retain the properties of open surfaces because their growth, even while hyperallometric, cannot keep up with the demand of growing three-dimensional bodies. Also, we show that a wide range of biological features of fish and other water-breathing organisms can be understood when gill area limitation is used as an explanation. We also note that an alternative to GOLT, offering a more parsimonious explanation for these features of water-breathers has not been proposed. Available empirical evidence corroborates predictions of decrease in body sizes under ocean warming based on GOLT, with the magnitude of the predicted change increases when using more species-specific parameter values of metabolic scaling. Ocean warming is expected to cause a decrease in body size of marine fishes. Such phenomenon is explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT)—under warming, the oxygen supply to large fish size cannot be met by their gills, whose surface area cannot keep up with the increased oxygen demand by their three-dimensional bodies. A wide range of biological features of fish can be understood when GOLT is used as an explanation. Available empirical evidence of fish shrinking under warming corroborates predictions based on GOLT. It is important to consider GOLT in understanding responses of fishes to global change.

Description: Nearly half of the freshwater discharge into the Gulf of Alaska originates from landscapes draining glacier runoff, but the influence of the influx of riverine organic matter on the trophodynamics of coastal marine food webs is not well understood. We quantified the ecological impact of riverine organic matter subsidies to glacier-marine habitats by developing a multi-trophic level Bayesian three-isotope mixing model. We utilized large gradients in stable (δ 13 C, δ 15 N, δ 2 H) and radiogenic ( Δ 14 C) isotopes that trace riverine and marine organic matter sources as they are passed from lower to higher trophic levels in glacial-marine habitats. We also compared isotope ratios between glacial-marine and more oceanic habitats. Based on isotopic measurements of potential baseline sources, ambient water and tissues of marine consumers, estimates of the riverine organic matter source contribution to upper trophic-level species including fish and seabirds ranged from 12-44%. Variability in resource use among similar taxa corresponded to variation in species distribution and life histories. For example, riverine organic matter assimilation by the glacier-nesting seabirds Kittlitz's murrelet ( Brachyramphus brevirostris ) was greater than that of the forest-nesting marbled murrelet ( B. marmoratus ). The particulate and dissolved organic carbon in glacial runoff and near surface coastal waters was aged (12100 to 1500 years BP 14 C-age) but dissolved inorganic carbon and biota in coastal waters were young (530 years BP 14 C-age to modern). Thus terrestrial-derived subsidies in marine food webs were primarily composed of young organic matter sources released from glacier ecosystems and their surrounding watersheds. Stable isotope compositions also revealed a divergence in food web structure between glacial-marine and oceanic sites. This work demonstrates linkages between terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and facilitates a greater understanding of how climate-driven changes in freshwater runoff have the potential to alter food web dynamics within coastal marine ecosystems in Alaska. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Forest growth provides negative emissions of carbon that could help keep the earth's surface temperature from exceeding 2°C, but the global potential is uncertain. Here we use land-use information from the FAO and a bookkeeping model to calculate the potential negative emissions that would result from allowing secondary forests to recover. We find the current gross carbon sink in forests recovering from harvests and abandoned agriculture to be -4.4 PgC yr −1 , globally. The sink represents the potential for negative emissions if positive emissions from deforestation and wood harvest were eliminated. However, the sink is largely offset by emissions from wood products built up over the last century. Accounting for these committed emissions, we estimate that stopping deforestation and allowing secondary forests to grow would yield cumulative negative emissions between 2016 and 2100 of about 120 PgC, globally. Extending the lifetimes of wood products could potentially remove another 10 PgC from the atmosphere, for a total of approximately 130 PgC, or about 13 years of fossil fuel use at today's rate. As an upper limit, the estimate is conservative. It is based largely on past and current practices. But if greater negative emissions are to be realized, they will require an expansion of forest area, greater efficiencies in converting harvested wood to long-lasting products and sources of energy, and novel approaches for sequestering carbon in soils. That is, they will require current management practices to change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The biogeographic response of oceanic planktonic communities to climatic change has a large influence on the future stability of marine food webs and the functioning of global biogeochemical cycles. Temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the distribution of these communities and ocean warming has the potential to cause major distributional shifts, particularly in polar regions where the thermal envelope is narrow. We considered the impact of long-term ocean warming on the spatial distribution of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities through examining plankton abundance in relation to sea surface temperature between two distinct periods, separated by around 60 years. Analyses considered 16 dominant mesozooplankton taxa (in terms of biomass and abundance) in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from net samples and in situ temperature records collected during the Discovery Investigations (1926–1938) and contemporary campaigns (1996–2013). Sea surface temperature was found to have increased significantly by 0.74°C between the two eras. The corresponding sea surface temperature at which community abundance peaked was also significantly higher in contemporary times, by 0.98°C. Spatial projections indicated that the geographical location of community peak abundance had remained the same between the two eras despite the poleward advance of sea surface isotherms. If the community had remained within the same thermal envelope as in the 1920s–1930s, community peak abundance would be 500 km further south in the contemporary era. Studies in the northern hemisphere have found that dominant taxa, such as calanoid copepods, have conserved their thermal niches and tracked surface isotherms polewards. The fact that this has not occurred in the Southern Ocean suggests that other selective pressures, particularly food availability and the properties of underlying water masses, place greater constraints on spatial distributions in this region. It further demonstrates that this community is thermally resilient to present levels of sea surface warming. Spatial projections of mesozooplankton community relative abundance ( CRel A ) in the Southern Ocean indicated that the location of community peak abundance had remained the same between two eras (the Discovery Investigations , 1926–1938, and contemporary times, 1996–2003) despite the intervening poleward advance of sea surface isotherms by 500 km. The Southern Ocean mesozooplankton community appear thermally resilient to present levels of sea surface warming, implying that food availability and the properties of underlying water masses place greater constraints on their spatial distribution.

Description: Population responses to climate were assessed using 3-7 yr height growth data gathered for 266 populations growing in 12 common gardens established in the 1980s as part of 5 disparate studies of Pinus contorta var. latifolia . Responses are interpreted according to three concepts: the ecological optimum, the climate where a population is competitively exclusive and in which, therefore, it occurs naturally; the physiological optimum, the climate where a population grows best but is most often competitively excluded; and growth potential, the innate capacity for growth at the physiological optimum. Statistical analyses identified winter cold, measured by the square root of negative degree-days calculated from the daily minimum temperature (MINDD0 1/2 ), as the climatic effect most closely related to population growth potential; the colder the winter inhabited by a population, the lower its growth potential, a relationship presumably molded by natural selection. By splitting the data into groups based on population MINDD0 1/2 and using a function suited to skewed normal distributions, regressions were developed for predicting growth from the distance in climate space (MINDD0 1/2 ) populations had been transferred from their native location to a planting site. The regressions were skewed, showing that the ecological optimum of most populations is colder than the physiological optimum and that the discrepancy between the two increases as the ecological optimum becomes colder. Response to climate change is dependent on innate growth potential and the discrepancy between the two optima and, therefore, is population-specific, developing out of genotype-environment interactions. Response to warming in the short-term can be either positive or negative, but long term responses will be negative for all populations, with the timing of the demise dependent on the amount of skew. The results pertain to physiological modeling, species distribution models, and climate-change adaptation strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The timing of the annual phytoplankton spring bloom is likely to be altered in response to climate change. Quantifying that response has however been limited by the typically coarse temporal resolution (monthly) of global climate models. Here we use higher resolution model output (maximum 5 days) to investigate how phytoplankton bloom timing changes in response to projected 21 st century climate change, and how the temporal resolution of data influences the detection of long-term trends. We find that bloom timing generally shifts later at mid-latitudes and earlier at high and low latitudes by ~ 5 days per decade to 2100. The spatial patterns of bloom timing are similar in both low (monthly) and high (5 day) resolution data, although initiation dates are later at low resolution. The magnitude of the trends in bloom timing from 2006-2100 is very similar at high and low resolution, with the result that the number of years of data needed to detect a trend in phytoplankton phenology is relatively insensitive to data temporal resolution. We also investigate the influence of spatial scales on bloom timing and find that trends are generally more rapidly detectable after spatial averaging of data. Our results suggest that, if pinpointing the start date of the spring bloom is the priority, the highest possible temporal resolution data should be used. However, if the priority is detecting long-term trends in bloom timing, data at a temporal resolution of 20 days is likely to be sufficient. Further, our results suggest that data sources which allow for spatial averaging will promote more rapid trend detection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: s Global long-term Satellite-based leaf area index (LAI) products have been generated and applied widely for understanding the feedbacks between climate and terrestrial vegetation. However, these long-term LAI products are not internally consistent over time and also not consistent with each other, which means they might be not suitable for serving as reference datasets in long-term global change research. Therefore, there is a strong need for a quality-assured long-term LAI product with reliable, traceable and understandable quality information. The Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) project is developing a quality assurance framework to provide understandable and traceable quality information for ECVs such as LAI. The LAI produced from this framework will add greater transparency and openness between ECV producers and end users, and facilitate the application of a long-term LAI product for global change research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Trait response-effects are critical to forecast community structure and biomass production in highly diverse tropical forests. Ecological theory and few observation studies indicate that trees with acquisitive functional traits would respond more strongly to higher resource availability than those with conservative traits. We assessed how long-term tree growth in experimental nutrient addition plots (N, P and N+P) varied as a function of morphological traits, tree size and species identity. We also evaluated how trait-based responses affected stand scale biomass production considering the community structure. We found that tree growth depended on interactions between functional traits and the type or combination of nutrients added. Common species with acquisitive functional traits responded more strongly to nutrient addition, mainly to N+P. Phosphorous enhanced the growth rates of species with acquisitive and conservative traits, had mostly positive effects on common species and neutral or negative effects in rare species. Moreover, trees receiving N+P grew faster irrespective of their initial size relative to control or to other treatment plots. Finally, species responses were highly idiosyncratic suggesting that community processes including competition and niche dimensionality may be altered under increased resource availability. We found no statistically significant effects of nutrient additions on aboveground biomass productivity because acquisitive species had a limited potential to increase their biomass, possibly due to their generally lower wood density. In contrast, P addition increased the growth rates of species characterized by more conservative resource strategies (with higher wood density) that were poorly represented in the plant community. We provide the first long-term experimental evidence that trait-based responses, community structure, and community processes modulate the effects of increased nutrient availability on biomass productivity in a tropical forest. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: i) how two-year sequences of extreme weather affect two-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine two-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest (‘dry’), wettest (‘wet’), and average (‘normal’) weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared to the normal-normal two-year weather scenario, two-year extreme weather scenarios affected two-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The two-year weather scenarios had non-additive effects on N losses: compared to the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased two-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased two-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, two-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of inter-annual weather patterns can be used to develop short-term mitigation strategies that manipulate N fertilizer and crop rotation to maximize crop N uptake while reducing environmental N losses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, including agricultural intensification and urban expansion, as well as changes in atmospheric deposition and climate—all of which may influence eutrophication of freshwaters. However, it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded to environmental change. We quantified water quality trends in 2913 lakes using nutrient and chlorophyll (Chl) observations from the Lake Multi-Scaled Geospatial and Temporal Database of the Northeast U.S. (LAGOS-NE), a collection of preexisting lake data mostly from state agencies. LAGOS-NE was used to quantify whether lake water quality has changed from 1990 to 2013, and whether lake-specific or regional geophysical factors were related to the observed changes. We modeled change through time using hierarchical linear models for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), stoichiometry (TN:TP), and Chl. Both the slopes (percent change per year) and intercepts (value in 1990) were allowed to vary by lake and region. Across all lakes, TN declined at a rate of 1.1% year −1 , while TP, TN:TP, and Chl did not change. A minority (7%–16%) of individual lakes had changing nutrients, stoichiometry, or Chl. Of those lakes that changed, we found differences in the geospatial variables that were most related to the observed change in the response variables. For example, TN and TN:TP trends were related to region-level drivers associated with atmospheric deposition of N; TP trends were related to both lake and region-level drivers associated with climate and land use; and Chl trends were found in regions with high air temperature at the beginning of the study period. We conclude that despite large environmental change and management efforts over recent decades, water quality of lakes in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. has not overwhelmingly degraded or improved. The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, and it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded. We studied nitrogen, phosphorus, and chlorophyll trends from 1990–2013 in lakes across the U.S. We concluded that despite large environmental change and management efforts over recent decades, water quality of lakes in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. has not overwhelmingly degraded or improved.

Description: Agricultural soils are widely recognized to be capable of carbon sequestration that contributes to mitigating CO 2 emissions. To better understand soil organic carbon (SOC) stock dynamics and its driving and controlling factors corresponding with a period of rapid agronomic evolution from the 1980s to the 2010s in the North China Plain (NCP), we collected data from two region-wide soil sampling campaigns (in the 1980s and 2010s) and conducted an analysis of the controlling factors using the Random Forest model. Between the 1980s and 2010s, environmental (i.e. soil salinity/fertility) and societal (i.e. policy/techniques) factors both contributed to adoption of new management practices (i.e. chemical fertilizer application/mechanization). Results of our work indicate that SOC stocks in the NCP croplands increased significantly, which also closely related to soil total nitrogen (TN) changes. Samples collected near the surface (0-20 cm) and deeper (20-40 cm) both increased by an average of 9.4 and 5.1 Mg C ha −1 , respectively, which are equivalent to increases of 73% and 56% compared with initial SOC stocks in the 1980s. The annual carbon sequestration amount in surface soils reached 10.9 Tg C yr −1 , which contributed an estimated 43% of total carbon sequestration in all of China's cropland on just 27% of its area. Successful desalinization and the subsequent increases in carbon (C) inputs, induced by agricultural projects and policies intended to support crop production (i.e. reconstruction of low yield farmland, and agricultural subsidies), combined with improved cultivation practices (i.e. fertilization, and straw return) since the early 1980s were the main drivers for the SOC stock increase. This study suggests that rehabilitation of NCP soils to reduce salinity and increase crop yields have also served as a pathway for substantial soil C sequestration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In our recent paper on how artificial light at night (ALAN) affects within-individual changes in physiology, we used a unique experimental setup of colored LED lights to show effects on nighttime activity levels and physiology in free-living great tits, Parus major (Ouyang et al ., 2017). Raap et al's response, entitled: “Rigorous field experiments are essential to understand the genuine severity of light pollution and to identify possible solutions” lists issues with our analyses (Raap et al., 2017). Rather than go into a detailed response, we use this forum to address the major critiques by answering the bigger question of what types of rigorous field experiments are needed to evaluate ALAN's impact. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Net primary productivity (NPP) is one of the most important parameters in describing the functioning of any ecosystem and yet it arguably remains a poorly quantified and understood component of carbon cycling in tropical forests, especially outside of the Americas. We provide the first comprehensive analysis of NPP and its carbon allocation to woody, canopy and root growth components at contrasting lowland West African forests spanning a rainfall gradient. Using a standardised methodology to study evergreen (EF), semi-deciduous (SDF), dry forests (DF) and woody savanna (WS), we find that (i) climate is more closely related with above and belowground C stocks than with NPP (ii) total NPP is highest in the SDF site, then the EF followed by the DF and WS and that (iii) different forest types have distinct carbon allocation patterns whereby SDF allocate in excess of 50% to canopy production and the DF and WS sites allocate 40-50% to woody production. Furthermore, we find that (iv) compared with canopy and root growth rates the woody growth rate of these forests is a poor proxy for their overall productivity and that (v) residence time is the primary driver in the productivity-allocation-turnover chain for the observed spatial differences in woody, leaf and root biomass across the rainfall gradient. Through a systematic assessment of forest productivity we demonstrate the importance of directly measuring the main components of above and belowground NPP and encourage the establishment of more permanent carbon intensive monitoring plots across the tropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recent studies have shown an increasing trend in hydroclimatic disturbances like droughts, which are anticipated to become more frequent and intense under global warming and climate change. Droughts adversely affect the vegetation growth and crop yield, which enhances the risks to food security for a country like India with over 1.2 billion people to feed. Here, we compared the response of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to hydroclimatic disturbances in India at different scales (i.e., at river basins, land covers, and climate types) to examine the ecosystems’ resilience to such adverse conditions. The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE e : NPP/Evapotranspiration) is an effective indicator of ecosystem productivity, linking carbon (C) and water cycles. We found a significant difference ( p  〈 .05) in WUE e across India at different scales. The ecosystem resilience analysis indicated that most of the river basins were not resilient enough to hydroclimatic disturbances. Drastic reduction in WUE e under dry conditions was observed for some basins, which highlighted the cross-biome incapability to withstand such conditions. The ecosystem resilience at land cover and climate type scale did not completely relate to the basin-scale ecosystem resilience, which indicated that ecosystem resilience at basin scale is controlled by some other ecohydrological processes. Our results facilitate the identification of the most sensitive regions in the country for ecosystem management and climate policy making, and highlight the need for taking sufficient adaptation measures to ensure sustainability of ecosystems. Our study reports the ecosystem resilience of different regions in India and we studied the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to hydroclimatic disturbances. We found a significant variation in ecosystem water use efficiency at different scales over India, which was related to climate and vegetation types and ecosystems in most of the river basins in India are not resilient enough to hydroclimatic disturbances. Our study will help to understand how the terrestrial ecosystems in India will respond to climate change (global change).

Description: Widespread observations of malformed amphibians across North America have generated both concern and controversy. Debates over the causes of such malformations—which can affect 〉50% of animals in a population—have continued, likely due to involvement of multiple causal factors. Here, we used a 13-year dataset encompassing 53,880 frogs and toads from 422 wetlands and 42 states in the conterminous USA to test hypotheses relating abnormalities and four categories of potential drivers: (1) chemical contaminants, (2) land use practices, (3) parasite infection, and (4) targeted interactions between parasites and pesticides. By using a hierarchically-nested, competing-model approach, we further examined how these associations varied spatially among geographic regions. Although malformations were rare overall (average = 1.6%), we identified 96 hotspot sites with 5 to 25% abnormal individuals. Using the full dataset of 934 collections (without data on parasite infection), malformation frequency was best predicted by the presence of oil and gas wells within the watershed. Among collections also examined for parasite infection (n=154), average parasite load and its interaction with pesticide application positively predicted malformations: wetlands with a greater abundance of the trematode Ribeiroia ondatrae were more likely to have malformed amphibians, but these effects were strongest when pesticide application was also high, consistent with prior experimental research. Importantly, however, the influence of these factors also varied regionally, helping explain divergent results from previous studies at local scales; parasite infection was more influential in the West and Northeast, whereas pesticide application and oil/gas wells correlated with abnormalities in the Northeast, Southeast and western regions of the USA. These results, based on the largest systematic sampling of amphibian malformations, suggest that increased observations of abnormal amphibians are associated with both parasite infection and chemical contaminants, but that their relative importance and interaction strength varied with the spatial extent of the analysis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole ( Solea solea ). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability of larval transport over the period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (–9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (-58%), and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention -4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Globally, trees are increasingly dying from extreme drought, a trend that is expected to increase with climate change. Loss of trees has significant ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical consequences. In 2011, a record drought caused widespread tree mortality in Texas. Using remotely sensed imagery, we quantified canopy loss during and after the drought across the state at 30-m spatial resolution, from the eastern pine/hardwood forests to the western shrublands, a region that includes the boundaries of many species ranges. Canopy loss observations in ~200 multitemporal fine-scale orthophotos (1-m) were used to train coarser Landsat imagery (30-m) to create 30-m binary statewide canopy loss maps. We found that canopy loss occurred across all major ecoregions of Texas, with an average loss of 9.5%. The drought had the highest impact in post oak woodlands, pinyon-juniper shrublands and Ashe juniper woodlands. Focusing on a 100-km by ~1,000-km transect spanning the State's fivefold east–west precipitation gradient (~1,500 to ~300 mm), we compared spatially explicit 2011 climatic anomalies to our canopy loss maps. Much of the canopy loss occurred in areas that passed specific climatic thresholds: warm season anomalies in mean temperature (+1.6°C) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD, +0.66 kPa), annual percent deviation in precipitation (−38%), and 2011 difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (−1,206 mm). Although similarly low precipitation occurred during the landmark 1950s drought, the VPD and temperature anomalies observed in 2011 were even greater. Furthermore, future climate data under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 trajectory project that average values will surpass the 2011 VPD anomaly during the 2070–2099 period and the temperature anomaly during the 2040–2099 period. Identifying vulnerable ecological systems to drought stress and climate thresholds associated with canopy loss will aid in predicting how forests will respond to a changing climate and how ecological landscapes will change in the near term. Using remotely sensed imagery, we quantified canopy loss across Texas due to the 2011 drought; we found a 9.5% loss in canopy and greater mortality of Juniperus ashei, an encroaching tree-shrub, which suggests that woody-shrub encroachment may be drought-limited. Temperature (+1.6°C) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD, +0.66 kPa) anomaly thresholds effectively explained spatial patterns of tree mortality. Furthermore, future climate data (RCP 8.5) project that average values will surpass this VPD anomaly during the 2070–2099 period.

Description: Rising temperatures and nutrient enrichment are co-occurring global-change drivers that stimulate microbial respiration of detrital carbon (C), but nutrient effects on the temperature dependence of respiration in aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. We measured respiration rates associated with leaf litter, wood, and fine benthic organic matter (FBOM) across seasonal temperature gradients before (PRE) and after (ENR1, ENR2) experimental nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) additions to five forest streams. Nitrogen and P were added at different N:P ratios using increasing concentrations of N (~80-650 μg/L) and corresponding decreasing concentrations of P (~90-11 μg/L). We assessed the temperature dependence, and microbial (i.e., fungal) drivers of detrital mass-specific respiration rates using the metabolic theory of ecology, before vs. after nutrient enrichment, and across N and P concentrations. Detrital mass-specific respiration rates increased with temperature, exhibiting comparable activation energies ( E, electronvolts [eV]) for all substrates (FBOM E = 0.43 [95% CI = 0.18-0.69] eV, leaf litter E = 0.30 [95% CI =0.072-0.54] eV, wood E = 0.41 [95% CI = 0.18-0.64] eV) close to predicted MTE values. There was evidence that temperature-driven increased respiration occurred via increased fungal biomass (wood) or increased fungal biomass-specific respiration (leaf litter). Respiration rates increased under nutrient-enriched conditions on leaves (1.32×) and wood (1.38×), but not FBOM. Respiration rates responded weakly to gradients in N or P concentrations, except for positive effects of P on wood respiration. The temperature dependence of respiration was comparable among years, and across N or P concentration for all substrates. Responses of leaf litter and wood respiration to temperature and the combined effects of N and P were similar in magnitude. Our data suggest that the temperature dependence of stream microbial respiration is unchanged by nutrient enrichment, and that increased temperature and N+P availability have additive and comparable effects on microbial respiration rates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO 2 in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO 2 records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO 2 . We found significant (P〈0.05) increases in seasonal peak-to-trough CO 2 amplitude (AMP P -T ) at nine stations, and in trough-to-peak amplitude (AMP T -P ) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (〉50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMP P -T and AMP T -P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMP P -T and AMP T -P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO 2 (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO 2 are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO 2 during carbon uptake period. Air-sea CO 2 fluxes (10% for AMP P -T and 11% for AMP T -P ) and the impacts of land-use change (marginally significant 3% for AMP P -T and 4% for AMP T -P ) also contributed to the CO 2 measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In frequent fire forests of the western US a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown-killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no-management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no-management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive = 0.42 Tg C, optimized = 0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent-fire forests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Widespread ocean acidification (OA) is modifying the chemistry of the global ocean, and the Arctic is recognised as the region where the changes will progress at the fastest rate. Moreover, Arctic species show lower capacity for cellular homeostasis and acid-base regulation rendering them particularly vulnerable to OA. In the present study, we found physiological differences in OA response across geographically separated populations of the keystone Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis . In copepodite stage CIV, measured reaction norms of ingestion rate and metabolic rate showed severe reductions in ingestion and increased metabolic expenses in two populations from Svalbard (Kongsfjord and Billefjord) whereas no effects were observed in a population from the Disko Bay, West Greenland. At pH T 7.87, which has been predicted for the Svalbard west coast by year 2100, these changes resulted in reductions in scope for growth of 19% in the Kongsfjord and a staggering 50% in the Billefjord. Interestingly, these effects were not observed in stage CV copepodites from any of the three locations. It seems that CVs may be more tolerant to OA perhaps due to a general physiological reorganisation to meet low intracellular pH during hibernation. Needless to say, the observed changes in the CIV stage will have serious implications for the C. glacialis population health status and growth around Svalbard. However, OA tolerant populations such as the one in the Disko Bay could help to alleviate severe effects in C. glacialis as a species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long-term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high-temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t ha −1 , since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during two years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (R s ) and metabolic quotient (qCO 2 ) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO 2 emissions by 28% over two years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N 2 O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N-cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar-induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar-C into soil was estimated to offset warming-induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N 2 O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Tidal wetlands contain large reservoirs of carbon in their soils and can sequester carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) at a greater rate per unit area than nearly any other ecosystem. The spatial distribution of this carbon influences climate and wetland policy. To assist with international accords such as the Paris Climate Agreement, national-level assessments such as the United States (U.S.) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and regional, state, local, and project-level evaluation of CO 2 sequestration credits, we developed a geodatabase (CoBluCarb) and high-resolution maps of soil organic carbon (SOC) distribution by linking National Wetlands Inventory data with the U.S. Soil Survey Geographic Database. For over 600,000 wetlands, the total carbon stock and organic carbon density was calculated at 5-cm vertical resolution from 0 to 300 cm of depth. Across the continental United States, there are 1,153–1,359 Tg of SOC in the upper 0–100 cm of soils across a total of 24 945.9 km 2 of tidal wetland area, twice as much carbon as the most recent national estimate. Approximately 75% of this carbon was found in estuarine emergent wetlands with freshwater tidal wetlands holding about 19%. The greatest pool of SOC was found within the Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bay complex in Louisiana, containing about 10% of the U.S. total. The average density across all tidal wetlands was 0.071 g cm −3 across 0–15 cm, 0.055 g cm −3 across 0–100 cm, and 0.040 g cm −3 at the 100 cm depth. There is inherent variability between and within individual wetlands; however, we conclude that it is possible to use standardized values at a range of 0–100 cm of the soil profile, to provide first-order quantification and to evaluate future changes in carbon stocks in response to environmental perturbations. This Tier 2-oriented carbon stock assessment provides a scientific method that can be copied by other nations in support of international requirements. In the tidal wetlands across the United States, there is 1,152–1,359 Tg of soil organic carbon (SOC), which is twice as much carbon as the most recent national estimate. The average area-weighted carbon density is 0.040 g cm -3 at the 100 cm depth. Approximately 75% of the carbon is found in herbaceous estuarine emergent wetlands with freshwater tidal wetlands holding about 19%. Standardized values can be used to provide a first-order valuation of sequestration potential.

Description: Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate. Demographic processes and climate interact and vary across a species’ range to determine how species’ distributions will respond to climate change. We predicted that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope are most sensitive to climate shifts. We tested this using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in climate for wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in North America. Sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope.

Description: With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per-capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever-growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross-sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade-offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land-sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter-productive trade-offs resulting from land-sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross-sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Invasions of poisonous species can cause rapid population declines among native fauna because predators are naïve and often vulnerable to these toxins. The recent invasion of Madagascar by the poisonous Asian common toad, Duttaphrynus melanostictus , has sparked international attention (Kolby, 2015), as well as research and conservation efforts to predict the climate suitability of Madagascar for the invasive toads (Pearson 2015; Vences et al ., 2017), pinpoint the origin of the invasive lineage (Wogan et al ., 2016; Vences et al ., 2017), determining the toads’ distribution, and educating local communities (Andreone, 2014). While the invasion in Madagascar has received much attention, an invasion of this same toad species on the islands of Wallacea in eastern Indonesia is ongoing but virtually unrecognized. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recent anthropogenic climate change and the exponential increase over the past few decades of Saharan dust deposition, containing ecologically important inputs of phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca), are potentially affecting remote aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we examine changes in cladoceran assemblage composition and chlorophyll- a concentrations over the past ~150 years from high-resolution, well-dated sediment cores retrieved from six remote high mountain lakes in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Southern Spain, a region affected by Saharan dust deposition. In each lake, marked shifts in cladoceran assemblages and chlorophyll- a concentrations in recent decades indicate a regional-scale response to climate and Saharan dust deposition. Chlorophyll- a concentrations have increased since the 1970s, consistent with a response to rising air temperatures and the intensification of atmospheric deposition of Saharan P. Similar shifts in cladoceran taxa across lakes began over a century ago, but have intensified over the past ~50 years, concurrent with trends in regional air temperature, precipitation, and increased Saharan dust deposition. An abrupt increase in the relative abundance of the benthic cladoceran Alona quadrangularis at the expense of Chydorus sphaericus , and a significant increase in Daphnia pulex gr. was a common trend in these softwater lakes. Differences in the magnitude and timing of these changes are likely due to catchment and lake-specific differences. In contrast with other alpine lakes that are often affected by acid deposition, atmospheric Ca deposition appears to be a significant explanatory factor, amongst others, for the changes in the lake biota of Sierra Nevada that has not been previously considered. The effects observed in Sierra Nevada are likely occurring in other Mediterranean lake districts, especially in soft water, oligotrophic lakes. The predicted increases in global temperature and Saharan dust deposition in the future will further impact the ecological condition of these ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In response to climate warming, subalpine treelines are expected to move up in elevation since treelines are generally controlled by growing season temperature. Where treeline is advancing, dispersal differences and early life stage environmental tolerances are likely to affect how species expand their ranges. Species with an establishment advantage will colonize newly available habitat first, potentially excluding species that have slower establishment rates. Using a network of plots across five mountain ranges, we described patterns of upslope elevational range shift for the two dominant Great Basin sub-alpine species, limber pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine. We found that the Great Basin treeline for these species is expanding upslope with a mean vertical elevation shift of 19.1 m since 1950, which is lower than what we might expect based on temperature increases alone. The largest advances were on limber pine-dominated granitic soils, on west aspects, and at lower latitudes. Bristlecone pine juveniles establishing above treeline share some environmental associations with bristlecone adults. Limber pine above-treeline juveniles, in contrast, are prevalent across environmental conditions and share few environmental associations with limber pine adults. Strikingly, limber pine is establishing above treeline throughout the region without regard to site characteristic such as soil type, slope, aspect, or soil texture. Though limber pine is often rare at treeline where it coexists with bristlecone pine, limber pine juveniles dominate above treeline even on calcareous soils that are core bristlecone pine habitat. Limber pine is successfully “leap-frogging” over bristlecone pine, probably because of its strong dispersal advantage and broader tolerances for establishment. This early-stage dominance indicates the potential for the species composition of treeline to change in response to climate change. More broadly, it shows how species differences in dispersal and establishment may result in future communities with very different specific composition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were performed on marine mammal bone collagen from three archaeological sites (A.D. 1170-1813) on Cape Espenberg (Kotzebue Sound, northwestern Alaska) as well as modern animals harvested from the same area to examine long-term trends in foraging ecology and sea ice productivity. We observed significant and dramatic changes in ringed seal stable isotope values between the early 19 th and early 21 st centuries, likely due to changing sea ice productivity and reduced delivery of organic matter to the benthos driven by recent warming in the Arctic. These data highlight the importance of the archaeological record for providing a long-term perspective on environmental variation and interpreting recent changes driven by anthropogenic processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The composition of local ecological communities is determined by the members of the regional community that are able to survive the abiotic and biotic conditions of a local ecosystem. Anthropogenic activities since the industrial revolution have increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, which have in turn decreased ocean pH and altered carbonate ion concentrations: so called ocean acidification (OA). Single-species experiments have shown how OA can dramatically affect zooplankton development, physiology and skeletal mineralization status, potentially reducing their defensive function and altering their predatory and antipredatory behaviors. This means that increased OA may indirectly alter the biotic conditions by modifying trophic interactions. We investigated how OA affects the impact of a cubozoan predator on their zooplankton prey, predominantly Copepoda, Pleocyemata, Dendrobranchiata, and Amphipoda. Experimental conditions were set at either current ( p CO 2 370 μatm) or end-of-the-century OA ( p CO 2 1,100 μatm) scenarios, crossed in an orthogonal experimental design with the presence/absence of the cubozoan predator Carybdea rastoni . The combined effects of exposure to OA and predation by C. rastoni caused greater shifts in community structure, and greater reductions in the abundance of key taxa than would be predicted from combining the effect of each stressor in isolation. Specifically, we show that in the combined presence of OA and a cubozoan predator, populations of the most abundant member of the zooplankton community (calanoid copepods) were reduced 27% more than it would be predicted based on the effects of these stressors in isolation, suggesting that OA increases the susceptibility of plankton to predation. Our results indicate that the ecological consequences of OA may be greater than predicted from single-species experiments, and highlight the need to understand future marine global change from a community perspective. As ocean acidification (OA) may affect the strength of interactions among species, community-level experiments are necessary to understand its broader impacts. Here we show that CO2-mediated OA increases the top-down predation pressure exerted by a cubozoan jellyfish on its zooplankton prey. Our results therefore show that OA may disrupt community-level interactions, magnifying its overall effects.

Description: Climate change will alter both the amount and pattern of precipitation and soil water availability, which will directly affect plant growth and nutrient acquisition, and potentially, ecosystem functions like nutrient cycling and losses as well. Given their role in facilitating plant nutrient acquisition and water stress resistance, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi may modulate the effects of changing water availability on plants and ecosystem functions. The well-characterized mycorrhizal tomato ( Solanum lycopersicum L.) genotype 76R (referred to as MYC+) and the mutant mycorrhiza-defective tomato genotype rmc were grown in microcosms in a glasshouse experiment manipulating both the pattern and amount of water supply in unsterilized field soil. Following 4 weeks of differing water regimes, we tested how AM fungi affected plant productivity and nutrient acquisition, short-term interception of a 15 NH 4 + pulse, and inorganic nitrogen (N) leaching from microcosms. AM fungi enhanced plant nutrient acquisition with both lower and more variable water availability, for instance increasing plant P uptake more with a pulsed water supply compared to a regular supply and increasing shoot N concentration more when lower water amounts were applied. Although uptake of the short-term 15 NH 4 + pulse was higher in rmc plants, possibly due to higher N demand, AM fungi subtly modulated NO 3 - leaching, decreasing losses by 54% at low and high water levels in the regular water regime, with small absolute amounts of NO 3 - leached (〈1 kg N ha −1 ). Since this study shows that AM fungi will likely be an important moderator of plant and ecosystem responses to adverse effects of more variable precipitation, management strategies that bolster AM fungal communities may in turn create systems that are more resilient to these changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Studies of the phenological responses of animals to climate change typically emphasize the initiation of breeding, even though climatic effects on the cessation and length of the breeding period may be as or more influential of fitness. We quantified links between climate, the cessation and length of the breeding period, and individual survival and reproduction using a 34 year study of a resident song sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ) population subject to dramatic variation in climate. We show that the cessation and length of the breeding period varied strongly across years, and predicted female annual fecundity but not survival. Breeding period length was more influential of fecundity than initiation or cessation of breeding alone. Warmer annual temperature and drier winters and summers predicted an earlier cessation of breeding. Population density, the date breeding was initiated, a female's history of breeding success, and the number of breeding attempts initiated previously also predicted the cessation of breeding annually, indicating that climatic, population, and individual factors may interact to affect breeding phenology. Linking climate projections to our model results suggests that females will both initiate and cease breeding earlier in the future; this will have opposite effects on individual reproductive rate because breeding earlier is expected to increase fecundity, whereas ceasing breeding earlier should reduce it. Identifying factors affecting the cessation and length of the breeding period in multiparous species may be essential to predicting individual fitness and population demography. Given a rich history of studies on the initiation of breeding in free-living species, re-visiting those data to estimate climatic effects on the cessation and length of breeding should improve our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on multiparous species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We have little empirical evidence of how large-scale overlaps between large numbers of marine species may have altered in response to human impacts. Here, we synthesized all available distribution data (〉1 million records) since 1992 for 61 species of the East Australian marine ecosystem, a global hot spot of ocean warming and continuing fisheries exploitation. Using a novel approach, we constructed networks of the annual changes in geographical overlaps between species. Using indices of changes in species overlap, we quantified changes in the ecosystem stability, species robustness, species sensitivity and structural keystone species. We then compared the species overlap indices with environmental and fisheries data to identify potential factors leading to the changes in distributional overlaps between species. We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations. Most species have shown a decrease in overlaps with other species. The greatest decrease in species overlap robustness and sensitivity to the loss of other species has occurred in the pelagic community. Some demersal species have become more robust and less sensitive. Pelagic structural keystone species, predominately the tunas and billfish, have been replaced by demersal fish species. The changes in species overlap were strongly correlated with regional oceanographic changes, in particular increasing ocean warming and the southward transport of warmer and saltier water with the East Australian Current (EAC), but less correlated with fisheries catch. Our study illustrates how large-scale multispecies distribution changes can help identify structural changes in marine ecosystems associated with climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis , may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual-based model coupled to an ice-ocean-biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature- and food-dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35-year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4 ). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Lakes (including reservoirs) are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle, as acknowledged by the 5 th assessment report of the IPCC. In the context of lakes, the boreal region is disproportionately important contributing to 27% of the worldwide lake area, despite representing just 14% of global land surface area. In this study, we used a statistical approach to derive a prediction equation for the partial pressure of CO 2 ( p CO 2 ) in lakes as a function of lake area, terrestrial net primary productivity ( NPP ) and precipitation (r 2 = 0.56), and to create the first high resolution, circumboreal map (0.5) of lake  p CO 2 . The map of  p CO 2 was combined with lake area from the recently published GLOWABO database and three different estimates of the gas transfer velocity k to produce a resulting map of CO 2 evasion ( F CO 2 ). For the boreal region we estimate an average, lake area weighted, p CO 2  of 966 (678- 1325) μatm and a total  F CO 2 of 189 (74-347) Tg C yr −1 , and evaluate the corresponding uncertainties based on Monte Carlo simulation. Our estimate of  F CO 2 is approximately twofold greater than previous estimates, as a result of methodological and data source differences. We use our results along with published estimates of the other C fluxes through inland waters to derive a C budget for the boreal region, and find that F CO 2 from lakes is the most significant flux of the land-ocean aquatic continuum, and of a similar magnitude as emissions from forest fires. Using the model and applying it to spatially resolved projections of terrestrial NPP and precipitation while keeping everything else constant, we predict a 107% increase in boreal lake  F CO 2 under emission scenario RCP8.5 by 2100. Our projections are largely driven by increases in terrestrial NPP over the same period, showing the very close connection between the terrestrial and aquatic C cycle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Large wild ungulates are a major biotic factor shaping plant communities. They influence species abundance and occurrence directly by herbivory and plant dispersal, or indirectly by modifying plant-plant interactions and through soil disturbance. In forest ecosystems, researchers’ attention has been mainly focused on deer overabundance. Far less is known about the effects on understory plant dynamics and diversity of wild ungulates where their abundance is maintained at lower levels to mitigate impacts on tree regeneration. We used vegetation data collected over ten years on 82 pairs of exclosure (excluding ungulates) and control plots located in a nation-wide forest monitoring network (Renecofor). We report the effects of ungulate exclusion on (i) plant species richness and ecological characteristics, (ii) and cover percentage of herbaceous and shrub layers. We also analysed the response of these variables along gradients of ungulate abundance, based on hunting statistics, for wild boar ( Sus scrofa ) , red deer ( Cervus elaphus ) and roe deer ( Capreolus capreolus ). Outside the exclosures, forest ungulates maintained a higher species richness in the herbaceous layer (+15%), while the shrub layer was 17% less rich, and the plant communities became more light-demanding. Inside the exclosures, shrub cover increased, often to the benefit of bramble ( Rubus fruticosus agg.). Ungulates tend to favour ruderal, hemerobic, epizoochorous and non-forest species. Among plots, the magnitude of vegetation changes was proportional to deer abundance. We conclude that ungulates, through the control of the shrub layer, indirectly increase herbaceous plant species richness by increasing light reaching the ground. However, this increase is detrimental to forest-specialist species, and contributes to a landscape-level biotic homogenisation. Even at population density levels considered to be harmless for overall plant species richness, ungulates remain a conservation issue for plant community composition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Biological invasions are one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity. Marine artificial structures are proliferating worldwide and provide a haven for marine invasive species. Such structures disrupt local hydrodynamics, which can lead to the formation of oxygen-depleted microsites. The extent to which native fauna can cope with such low oxygen conditions, and whether invasive species, long associated with artificial structures in flow-restricted habitats, have adapted to these conditions remains unclear. We measured water flow and oxygen availability in marinas and piers at the scales relevant to sessile marine invertebrates (mm). We then measured the capacity of invasive and native marine invertebrates to maintain metabolic rates under decreasing levels of oxygen using standard laboratory assays. We found that marinas reduce water flow relative to piers, and that local oxygen levels can be zero in low flow conditions. We also found that for species with erect growth forms, invasive species can tolerate much lower levels of oxygen relative to native species. Integrating the field and laboratory data showed that up to 30% of available microhabitats within low flow environments are physiologically stressful for native species, while only 18% of the same habitat is physiologically stressful for invasive species. These results suggest that invasive species have adapted to low oxygen habitats associated with manmade habitats, and artificial structures may be creating niche opportunities for invasive species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, USA, México – NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071–2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (〈10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in non-protected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity in order to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution due to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate and effects, is likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change-dominant (i.e. climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant-dominant (i.e. contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modelling to inform decision making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socio-economic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Rapid Arctic warming is expected to increase global greenhouse gas concentrations as permafrost thaw exposes immense stores of frozen carbon (C) to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also stimulates plant growth, which could offset C loss. Using data from seven years of experimental Air and Soil warming in moist acidic tundra, we show that Soil warming had a much stronger effect on CO 2 flux than Air warming. Soil warming caused rapid permafrost thaw and increased ecosystem respiration (Reco), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net summer CO 2 storage (NEE). Over seven years Reco, GPP, and NEE also increased in Control (i.e., ambient plots), but this change could be explained by slow thaw in Control areas. In the initial stages of thaw, R eco , GPP, and NEE increased linearly with thaw across all treatments, despite different rates of thaw. As thaw in Soil warming continued to increase linearly, ground surface subsidence created saturated micro-sites, and suppressed R eco , GPP, and NEE. However R eco and GPP remained high in areas with large Eriophorum vaginatum biomass. In general NEE increased with thaw, but was more strongly correlated with plant biomass than thaw, indicating that higher Reco in deeply thawed areas during summer months was balanced by GPP. Summer CO 2 flux across treatments fit a single quadratic relationship that captured the functional response of CO 2 flux to thaw, water table depth, and plant biomass. These results demonstrate the importance of indirect thaw effects on CO 2 flux: plant growth and water table dynamics. Non-summer Reco models estimated that the area was an annual CO 2 source during all years of observation. Non-summer CO 2 loss in warmer, more deeply thawed soils exceeded the increases in summer GPP, and thawed tundra was a net annual CO 2 source. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Diel temperature patterns are changing because of global warming, with higher temperatures being predicted to be more pronounced at night. Biological reactions are temperature dependent, with some occurring only during the daylight hours (e.g., light photosynthesis) and other during the entire day (e.g., respiration). Consequently, we expect the modification of daily temperature cycles to alter microbial biological reactions in stream sediments. Here, we aimed to study the effect of warming and changes of the diel temperature patterns on stream sediment biofilm functions tied to organic carbon decomposition, as well as on biofilm meiofaunal community structure. We performed an eight-week experiment with 12 artificial streams subjected to three different diel temperature patterns: warming, warmer nights and control. Significant effects of warming on biofilm function and structure were mainly detected in the long term. Our results showed that warming altered biofilm function, especially in the warmer nights’ treatment, which enhanced β -glucosidase enzyme activity. Interestingly, clear opposite diel patterns were observed for dissolved organic carbon and β -glucosidase activity, suggesting that, at night, sediment bacteria quickly consume the input of photosynthetic dissolved organic carbon labile compounds created during light-time. The biofilm structure was also altered by warming, as both warming and warmer night treatments enhanced copepod abundance and diminished abundances of turbellaria and nematodes, which, in turn, controlled bacterial, algal and ciliate communities. Overall, we conclude that warming has strong effect on sediment biofilm structure and enhanced microbial organic matter degradation which might, consequently, affect higher trophic levels and river carbon cycling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Humans have drastically altered the abundance of animals in marine ecosystems via exploitation. Reduced abundance can destabilize food webs, leading to cascading indirect effects that dramatically reorganize community structure and shift ecosystem function. However, the additional implications of these top-down changes for biogeochemical cycles via consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics (CND) are often overlooked in marine systems, particularly in coastal areas. Here, we review research that underscores the importance of this bottom-up control at local, regional, and global scales in coastal marine ecosystems, and the potential implications of anthropogenic change to fundamentally alter these processes. We focus attention on the two primary ways consumers affect nutrient dynamics, with emphasis on implications for the nutrient capacity of ecosystems: (1) the storage and retention of nutrients in biomass, and (2) the supply of nutrients via excretion and egestion. Nutrient storage in consumer biomass may be especially important in many marine ecosystems because consumers, as opposed to producers, often dominate organismal biomass. As for nutrient supply, we emphasize how consumers enhance primary production through both press and pulse dynamics. Looking forward, we explore the importance of CDN for improving theory (e.g., ecological stoichiometry, metabolic theory, and biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships), all in the context of global environmental change. Increasing research focus on CND will likely transform our perspectives on how consumers affect the functioning of marine ecosystems. Humans have drastically altered the abundance of animals in marine ecosystems via exploitation. While the implications for these losses for community structure and ecosystem function are well recognized, the additional implications of these top-down changes for biogeochemical cycles via consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics are often overlooked in coastal marine systems. Here, we review research that underscores the importance of this bottom-up control at local, regional, and global scales in coastal marine ecosystems, and the implications of anthropogenic change to fundamentally alter these processes.

Description: Fisheries have an enormous economic importance but reconciling their socio-economic features with the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems presents major challenges. Bycatch mortality from fisheries is clearly among the most serious global threats for marine ecosystems, affecting a wide range of top predators. Recent estimates report ca. 200,000 seabirds killed annually by bycatch in European waters. However there is an urgent need to rigorously estimate actual mortality rates and quantify effects of bycatch on populations. The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most impacted regions. Here we estimate for the first time both bycatch mortality rates and their population-level effects on three endemic and vulnerable Mediterranean taxa: Scopoli's shearwater, Mediterranean shag, and Audouin's gull, that die in different types of fishing gears: longlines, gillnets and sport trolling respectively. We use multi-event capture-recapture modeling to estimate crucial demographic parameters, including the probabilities of dying in different fishing gears. We then build stochastic demography models to forecast the viability of the populations under different management scenarios. Longline bycatch was particularly severe for adults of Scopoli's shearwaters and Audouin's gulls (ca. 28% and 23% of total mortality respectively) and also for immature gulls (ca. 90% of mortality). Gillnets had a lower impact, but were still responsible for ca. 9% of juvenile mortality on shags, whereas sport trolling only slightly influenced total mortality in gulls. Bycatch mortality has high population-level impacts in all three species, with shearwaters having the highest extinction risk under current mortality rates. Different life history traits and compensatory demographic mechanisms between the three species are probably influencing the different bycatch impact: for shearwaters, urgent conservation actions are required to ensure the viability of their populations. Results will be very useful for guiding future seabird conservation policies and moving towards an ecosystem-based approach to sustainable fisheries management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the effects of extreme climatic events on species and their interactions is of paramount importance for predicting and mitigating the impacts of climate change on communities and ecosystems. However, the joint effects of extreme climatic events and species interactions on the behaviour and phenotype of organisms remain poorly understood, leaving a substantial gap in our knowledge on the impacts of climatic change on ecological communities. Using an aphid–ladybeetle system, we experimentally investigated the effects of predators and heat shocks on prey body size, microhabitat use, and transgenerational phenotypic plasticity (i.e., the asexual production of winged offspring by unwinged mothers). We found that (1) aphids were smaller in the presence of predators but larger when exposed to frequent heat shocks, (2) frequent heat shocks shifted aphid distribution towards the plant's apex, but the presence of predators had the opposite effect and dampened the heat-shock's effects, (3) aphids responded to predators by producing winged offspring, but heat shocks strongly inhibited this transgenerational response to predation. Overall, our experimental results show that heat shocks inhibit phenotypic and behavioural responses to predation (and vice versa), and that such changes may alter trophic interactions, and have important consequences on the dynamics and stability of ecological communities. We conclude that the effects of extreme climatic events on the phenotype and behaviour of interacting species should be considered to understand the effects of climate change on species interactions and communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. Management of coral reefs through maintenance (e.g., marine-protected areas, catchment management to improve water quality), restoration, as well as global and national governmental agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., the 2015 Paris Agreement) is critical for the persistence of coral reefs. Despite these initiatives, the health and abundance of corals reefs are rapidly declining and other solutions will soon be required. We have recently discussed options for using assisted evolution (i.e., selective breeding, assisted gene flow, conditioning or epigenetic programming, and the manipulation of the coral microbiome) as a means to enhance environmental stress tolerance of corals and the success of coral reef restoration efforts. The 2014–2016 global coral bleaching event has sharpened the focus on such interventionist approaches. We highlight the necessity for consideration of alternative (e.g., hybrid) ecosystem states, discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and propose a decision tree for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives to enhance climate resilience of coral reefs. Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures including climate change, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. While root causes of human-driven climate change should be addressed, additional solutions are urgently required to ensure coral reefs persist into the future. In this Opinion piece, we address how breeding coral stock with enhanced environmental stress tolerance (assisted evolution) can increase reef resilience and contribute to the success of coral reef restoration efforts. We discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and provide guidelines for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives.

Description: Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook , within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3–5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012–2013 and 2015–2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances. Our study quantifies landscape variation in stressors caused by an extreme climate event, and the habitat use patterns of a highly mobile species to identify a mechanism that could drive population responses to extreme climate events. Using cold spells as our extreme event, and an estuarine sportfish, Snook, as our model mobile species, we found that extreme cold events result in temperatures lethal to Snook in some habitats, but not others. Likewise, we show that Snook distribution patterns when extreme cold disturbances are most likely to occur, vary across years. Thus, spatial heterogeneity in coldness and Snook habitat use creates temporally dynamic vulnerability to ECEs based on mechanisms that influence animal movement.

Description: Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982–1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS 〉 LAI3g 〉 TCDR 〉 GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003–2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products were smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS 〉 LAI3g 〉 TCDR 〉 GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intra-consistent over time nor inter-consistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The world's freshwater biotas are declining in diversity, range and abundance, more than in other realms, with human appropriation of water. Despite considerable data on the distribution of dams and their hydrological effects on river systems, there are few expansive and long analyses of impacts on freshwater biota. We investigated trends in waterbird communities over 32 years, (1983–2014), at three spatial scales in two similarly sized large river basins, with contrasting levels of water resource development, representing almost a third (29%) of Australia: the Murray–Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The Murray–Darling Basin is Australia's most developed river basin (240 dams storing 29,893 GL) while the Lake Eyre Basin is one of the less developed basins (1 dam storing 14 GL). We compared the long-term responses of waterbird communities in the two river basins at river basin, catchment and major wetland scales. Waterbird abundances were strongly related to river flows and rainfall. For the developed Murray–Darling Basin, we identified significant long-term declines in total abundances, functional response groups (e.g., piscivores) and individual species of waterbird ( n  = 50), associated with reductions in cumulative annual flow. These trends indicated ecosystem level changes. Contrastingly, we found no evidence of waterbird declines in the undeveloped Lake Eyre Basin. We also modelled the effects of the Australian Government buying up water rights and returning these to the riverine environment, at a substantial cost (〉3.1 AUD billion) which were projected to partly (18% improvement) restore waterbird abundances, but projected climate change effects could reduce these benefits considerably to only a 1% or 4% improvement, with respective annual recovery of environmental flows of 2,800 GL or 3,200 GL. Our unique large temporal and spatial scale analyses demonstrated severe long-term ecological impact of water resource development on prominent freshwater animals, with implications for global management of water resources. Long-term declining trends in waterbird numbers, at the total numbers, different species and functional response groups, were detected in the Murray–Darling Basin, with its rivers developed by dams. In comparison, there were few trends in the similarly sized but undeveloped Lake Eyre Basin. These two river basins cover near one-third of the Australian continent. These trends in waterbird numbers were consistent at the scale of the entire basin, the two main rivers in each basin and for ten of the most important wetlands in each river basin. These results were from surveys over more than three decades and indicate the long-term impacts of water resource developments on ecosystems, critical for rehabilitation and development of rivers around the world.

Description: Damage due to wind storms and droughts are increasing in many temperate forest, yet little is known about the long-term roles of these key climatic factors in forest dynamics and in the carbon budget. The objective of this study was to estimate individual and coupled effects of droughts and wind-storms on adult tree mortality across a 31-year period in 115 managed, mixed-coniferous forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains. For each stand, yearly mortality was inferred from management records, yearly drought from interpolated fields of monthly temperature, precipitation and soil water holding capacity, and wind-storms from interpolated fields of daily maximum wind-speed. We performed a thorough model selection based on a leave-one-out cross-validation of the time series. We compared different critical wind-speeds (CWSs) for damage, wind-storm and stand variables and statistical models. We found that a model including stand characteristics, drought and storm strength using a CWS of 25 ms −1 performed the best across most stands. Using this best model, we found that drought increased damage risk only in the most southerly forests, and its effect is generally maintained for up to two years. Storm strength increased damage risk in all forests in a relatively uniform way. In some stands, we found positive interaction between drought and storm strength most likely because drought weakens trees, and they became more prone to stem breakage under wind-loading. In other stands, we found negative interaction between drought and storm strength, where excessive rain likely leads to soil water saturation making trees more susceptible to overturning in a wind-storm. Our results stress that temporal data is essential to make valid inferences about ecological impacts of disturbance events, and that making inferences about disturbance agents separately can be of limited validity. Under projected future climatic conditions, the direction and strength of these ecological interactions could also change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialised in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes ( e.g . wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea-ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 x 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seal across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea-ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilising the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, and may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum ) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29–52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates. We use long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species representing the four major radiations of primates to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species, but most survival rates were little affected by climate variability. These findings indicate demographic buffering of life histories and provide new insights into the implications of climate change for the fates of wild primates.

Description: The natural nighttime environment is increasingly polluted by artificial light. Several studies have linked artificial light at night to negative impacts on human health. In free-living animals, light pollution is associated with changes in circadian, reproductive, and social behavior, but whether these animals also suffer from physiologic costs remains unknown. To fill this gap, we made use of a unique network of field sites which are either completely unlit (control), or are artificially illuminated with white, green, or red light. We monitored nighttime activity of adult great tits, Parus major, and related this activity to within-individual changes in physiologic indices. Because altered nighttime activity as a result of light pollution may affect health and well-being, we measured oxalic acid concentrations as a biomarker for sleep restriction, acute phase protein concentrations and malaria infection as indices of immune function, and telomere lengths as an overall measure of metabolic costs. Compared to other treatments, individuals roosting in the white light were much more active at night. In these individuals, oxalic acid decreased over the course of the study. We also found that individuals roosting in the white light treatment had a higher probability of malaria infection. Our results indicate that white light at night increases nighttime activity levels and sleep debt and affects disease dynamics in a free-living songbird. Our study offers the first evidence of detrimental effects of light pollution on the health of free-ranging wild animals. The nighttime environment is increasingly polluted by artificial light at night. We show that white light at night increases activity at night, making birds more restless. This increase in activity translates into increased sleep debt and decreases in immune function.

Description: Substantial amounts of nutrients are lost from soils through leaching. These losses can be environmentally damaging, causing groundwater eutrophication and also comprise an economic burden in terms of lost agricultural production. More intense precipitation events caused by climate change will likely aggravate this problem. So far it is unresolved to which extent soil biota can make ecosystems more resilient to climate change and reduce nutrient leaching losses when rainfall intensity increases. In this study, we focused on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, common soil fungi that form symbiotic associations with most land plants and which increase plant nutrient uptake. We hypothesized that AM fungi mitigate nutrient losses following intensive precipitation events (higher amount of precipitation and rain events frequency). To test this, we manipulated the presence of AM fungi in model grassland communities subjected to two rainfall scenarios: moderate and high rainfall intensity. The total amount of nutrients lost through leaching increased substantially with higher rainfall intensity. The presence of AM fungi reduced phosphorus losses by 50% under both rainfall scenarios and nitrogen losses by 40% under high rainfall intensity. Thus, the presence of AM fungi enhanced the nutrient interception ability of soils, and AM fungi reduced the nutrient leaching risk when rainfall intensity increases. These findings are especially relevant in areas with high rainfall intensity (e.g. such as the tropics) and for ecosystems that will experience increased rainfall due to climate change. Overall, this work demonstrates that soil biota such as AM fungi can enhance ecosystem resilience and reduce the negative impact of increased precipitation on nutrient losses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Description: Worldwide, urbanization leads to tremendous anthropogenic environmental alterations, causing strong selection pressures on populations of animals and plants. Although a key feature of urban areas is their higher temperature (“urban heat islands”), adaptive thermal evolution in organisms inhabiting urban areas has rarely been studied. We tested for evolution of a higher heat tolerance (CT MAX ) in urban populations of the water flea Daphnia magna , a keystone grazer in freshwater ecosystems, by carrying out a common garden experiment at two temperatures (20 °C and 24 °C) with genotypes of 13 natural populations ordered along a well-defined urbanization gradient. We also assessed body size and haemoglobin concentration to identify underlying physiological drivers of responses in CT MAX . We found a higher CT MAX in animals isolated from urban compared to rural habitats and in animals reared at higher temperatures. We also observed substantial genetic variation in thermal tolerance within populations. Overall, smaller animals were more heat tolerant. While urban animals mature at smaller size, the effect of urbanization on thermal tolerance is only in part caused by reductions in body size. Although urban Daphnia contained higher concentrations of haemoglobin, this did not contribute to their higher CT MAX . Our results provide evidence of adaptive thermal evolution to urbanization in the water flea Daphnia . In addition, our results show both evolutionary potential and adaptive plasticity in rural as well as urban Daphnia populations, facilitating responses to warming. Given their important ecological role in ponds and lakes, these adaptive responses in Daphnia likely impact food web dynamics, top-down control of algae, water quality, and the socio-economic value of urban ponds. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Description: Balancing the production of food, particularly meat, with preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services is a major societal challenge. Research into the contrasting strategies of land sparing and land sharing has suggested that land sparing – combining high-yield agriculture with protection or restoration of natural habitats on non-farmed land – will have lower environmental impacts than other strategies. Ecosystems with long histories of habitat disturbance, however, could be resilient to low-yield agriculture and thus fare better under land sharing. Using a wider suite of species (birds, dung beetles and trees) and a wider range of livestock production systems than previous studies, we investigated the probable impacts of different land-use strategies on biodiversity and aboveground carbon stocks in Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico – a region with a long history of habitat disturbance. By modelling the production of multiple products from interdependent land uses, we found that land sparing would allow larger estimated populations of most species and larger carbon stocks to persist than would land sharing or any intermediate strategy. This result held across all agricultural production targets despite the history of disturbance and despite species richness in low- and medium-yielding agriculture being not much less than that in natural habitats. This highlights the importance, in evaluating the biodiversity impacts of land use, of measuring population densities of individual species, rather than simple species richness. The benefits of land sparing for both biodiversity and carbon storage suggest that safeguarding natural habitats for biodiversity protection and carbon storage alongside promoting areas of high-yield cattle production would be desirable. However, delivering such landscapes will probably require the explicit linkage of livestock yield increases with habitat protection or restoration, as well as a deeper understanding of the long-term sustainability of yields, and research into how other societal outcomes vary across land-use strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Unprecedented levels of nitrogen (N) have entered terrestrial ecosystems over the past century, which substantially influences the carbon (C) exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere. Temperature and moisture are generally regarded as the major controllers over the N effects on ecosystem C uptake and release. N-phosphorous (P) stoichiometry regulates the growth and metabolisms of plants and soil organisms, thereby affecting many ecosystem C processes. However, it remains unclear how the N-induced shift in the plant N:P ratio affects ecosystem production and C fluxes and its relative importance. We conducted a field manipulative experiment with eight N addition levels in a Tibetan alpine steppe and assessed the influences of N on aboveground net primary production (ANPP), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE); we used linear mixed-effects models to further determine the relative contributions of various factors to the N-induced changes in these parameters. Our results showed that the ANPP, GEP, ER and NEE all exhibited nonlinear responses to increasing N additions. Further analysis demonstrated that the plant N:P ratio played a dominate role in shaping these C exchange processes. There was a positive relationship between the N-induced changes in ANPP (ΔANPP) and the plant N:P ratio (ΔN:P), while the ΔGEP, ΔER and ΔNEE exhibited quadratic correlations with the ΔN:P. By contrast, soil temperature and moisture were only secondary predictors for the changes in ecosystem production and C fluxes along the N addition gradient. These findings highlight the importance of plant N:P ratio in regulating ecosystem C exchange, which is crucial for improving our understanding of C cycles under the scenarios of global N enrichment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change will affect semiarid ecosystems through severe droughts that increase the competition for resources in plant and microbial communities. In these habitats, adaptations to climate change may consist of thinning - that reduces competition for resources through a decrease in tree density and the promotion of plant survival. We deciphered the functional and phylogenetic responses of the microbial community to six years of drought induced by rainfall exclusion and how forest management affects its resistance to drought, in a semiarid forest ecosystem dominated by Pinus halepensis Mill. A multiOMIC approach was applied to reveal novel, community-based strategies in the face of climate change. The diversity and the composition of the total and active soil microbiome were evaluated by 16S rRNA gene (bacteria) and ITS (fungal) sequencing, and by metaproteomics. The microbial biomass was analyzed by phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs), and the microbially-mediated ecosystem multifunctionality was studied by the integration of soil enzyme activities related to the cycles of C, N, and P. The microbial biomass and ecosystem multifunctionality decreased in drought-plots, as a consequence of the lower soil moisture and poorer plant development, but this decrease was more notable in unthinned plots. The structure and diversity of the total bacterial community was unaffected by drought at phylum and order level, but did so at genus level, and was influenced by seasonality. However, the total fungal community and the active microbial community were more sensitive to drought and were related to ecosystem multifunctionality. Thinning in plots without drought increased the active diversity while the total diversity was not affected. Thinning promoted the resistance of ecosystem multifunctionality to drought through changes in the active microbial community. The integration of total and active microbiome analyses avoids misinterpretations of the links between the soil microbial community and climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The landscape approach (LA) to multi-functional land management has gained traction among international organizations working toward sustainable development. World leaders have pledged to restore 350 Mha by 2030 using the LA. Governments, multinational agencies, and NGOs are key stakeholders (Bonn 2016). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The role and significance of physically protected soil organic carbon (SOC) in regulating SOC dynamics is unclear. Here we developed a simple theoretical model (DP model) considering dynamic physical protection to simulate the dynamics of protected ( C p ) and unprotected SOC ( C u ), and compared the modelling results with a conventional two-pool (fast vs slow) model considering chemical recalcitrance. The two models were first constrained using extensive SOC data collected from soils with and without fresh carbon (C) inputs under incubation conditions, and then applied to project SOC dynamics and explore mechanisms underpinning the priming effect (PE). Overall, both models explained more than 99% of the variances in observed SOC dynamics. The DP model predicted that C p accounted for the majority of total SOC. As decomposition proceeds, the proportion of C p reached 〉90% and kept relatively constant. Although the similar performance of the two models in simulating observed total SOC dynamics, their predictions of future SOC dynamics were divergent, challenging the predictions of widely used pool-based models. The DP model also suggested alternative mechanisms underpinning the priming of SOC decomposition by fresh C inputs. The two-pool model suggested that the PE was caused by the stimulated decomposition rates, especially for the slow recalcitrant pool, while the DP model suggested that the PE might be the combined consequence of stimulated C u decomposition, the liberation of C p to decomposition, and the inhibition of the protection of unprotected SOC. The model-data integration provided a new explanation for the PE, highlighting the importance of liberation of initially physically protected SOC to decomposition by new C inputs. Our model-data integration demonstrated the importance of simulating physical protection processes for reliable SOC predictions, and provided new insights into mechanistic understanding of the priming effect. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The spring phenology of plants in temperate regions strongly responds to spring temperatures. Climate warming has caused substantial phenological advances in the past, but trends to be expected in the future are uncertain. A simple indicator is temperature sensitivity, the phenological advance statistically associated with a 1 °C warmer mean temperature during the ‘preseason’, defined as the most temperature-sensitive period preceding the phenological event. Recent analyses of phenological records have shown a decline in temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding, but underlying mechanisms were not clear. Here we propose that climate warming can reduce temperature sensitivity simply by reducing the length of the preseason due to faster bud development during this time period, unless the entire preseason shifts forward so that its temperature does not change. We derive these predictions theoretically from the widely used ‘thermal time model’ for bud development and test them using data for 19 phenological events recorded in 1970–2012 at 108 stations spanning a 1600 m altitudinal range in Switzerland. We consider how temperature sensitivity, preseason start, preseason length and preseason temperature change (1) with altitude, (2) between the periods 1970–1987 and 1995–2012, which differed mainly in spring temperatures, and (3) between two non-consecutive sets of 18 years that differed mainly in winter temperatures. On average, temperature sensitivity increased with altitude (colder climate) and was reduced in years with warmer springs, but not in years with warmer winters. These trends also varied among species. Decreasing temperature sensitivity in warmer springs was associated with a limited forward shift of preseason start, higher temperatures during the preseason and reduced preseason length, but not with reduced winter chilling. Our results imply that declining temperature sensitivity can result directly from spring warming and does not necessarily indicate altered physiological responses or stronger constraints such as reduced winter chilling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: An important unresolved question is how populations of coldwater–dependent fishes will respond to rapidly warming water temperatures. For example, the culturally and economically important group, Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), experience site-specific thermal regimes during early development that could be disrupted by warming. To test for thermal local adaptation and heritable phenotypic plasticity in Pacific salmon embryos, we measured the developmental rate, survival, and body size at hatching in two populations of sockeye salmon ( O. nerka ) that overlap in timing of spawning but incubate in contrasting natural thermal regimes. Using a split half-sibling design, we exposed embryos of 10 families from each of two populations to variable and constant thermal regimes. These represented both experienced temperatures by each population, and predicted temperatures under plausible future conditions based on a warming scenario from the downscaled global climate model (MIROC A1B scenario). We did not find evidence of thermal local adaptation during the embryonic stage for developmental rate or survival. Within treatments, populations hatched within one day of each other, on average, and among treatments, did not differ in survival in response to temperature. We did detect plasticity to temperature; embryos developed 2.5 times longer (189 days) in the coolest regime compared to the warmest regime (74 days). We also detected variation in developmental rates among families within and among temperature regimes, indicating heritable plasticity. Families exhibited a strong positive relationship between thermal variability and phenotypic variability in developmental rate but body length and mass at hatching were largely insensitive to temperature. Overall, our results indicated a lack of thermal local adaptation, but a presence of plasticity in populations experiencing contrasting conditions, as well as family-specific heritable plasticity that could facilitate adaptive change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) are the three most important greenhouse gases (GHGs), and all show large uncertainties in their atmospheric budgets. Soils of natural and managed ecosystems play an extremely important role in modulating their atmospheric abundance. Mechanisms underlying the exchange of these GHGs at the soil–atmosphere interface are often assumed to be exclusively microbe-mediated (M-GHGs). We argue that it is a widespread phenomenon for soil systems to produce GHGs through nonmicrobial pathways (NM-GHGs) based on a review of the available evidence accumulated over the past half century. We find that five categories of mechanistic process, including photodegradation, thermal degradation, reactive oxidative species (ROS) oxidation, extracellular oxidative metabolism (EXOMET), and inorganic chemical reactions, can be identified as accounting for their production. These pathways are intricately coupled among themselves and with M-GHGs production and are subject to strong influences from regional and global change agents including, among others, climate warming, solar radiation, and alterations of atmospheric components. Preliminary estimates have suggested that NM-GHGs could play key roles in contributing to budgets of GHGs in the arid regions, whereas their global importance would be enhanced with accelerated global environmental changes. Therefore, more research should be undertaken, with a differentiation between NM-GHGs and M-GHGs, to further elucidate the underlying mechanisms, to investigate the impacts of various global change agents, and to quantify their contributions to regional and global GHGs budgets. These efforts will contribute to a more complete understanding of global carbon and nitrogen cycling and a reduction in the uncertainty of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Earth system. It is a widespread phenomenon for soils (plant residues) to produce GHGs through nonmicrobial pathways (NM-GHGs). Five categories of mechanistic process (photodegradation, thermal degradation, reactive oxidative species oxidation, extracellular oxidative metabolism, and inorganic chemical reactions) are currently identified. Preliminary estimates have suggested that these pathways could play key roles in regulating the regional budget of GHGs. Their global importance would be enhanced with accelerated global environmental changes.

Description: Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming-induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In the present study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree-ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions of RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio-tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987–1998 and 1999–2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%–9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%–8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%–3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1–3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic. To compensate for greater westward and northward sea ice drift between 1987–1998 and 1999–2013, polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas increased their time active (8.1%–9.6%) or travel speeds (8.5%–8.9%). This increased their annual energy expenditures by 1.8%–3.6%, which could be met by capturing an additional 1–3 seals/year.

Description: Anthropogenic environmental changes are accelerating the rate of biodiversity loss on Earth. Plant diversity loss is predicted to reduce soil microbial diversity primarily due to the decreased variety of carbon/energy resources. However, this intuitive hypothesis is supported by sparse empirical evidence, and most underlying mechanisms remain underexplored or obscure altogether. We constructed four diversity gradients (0-3) in a five-year plant functional group removal experiment in a steppe ecosystem in Inner Mongolia, China, and quantified microbial taxonomic and functional diversity with shotgun metagenome sequencing. The treatments had little effect on microbial taxonomic diversity, but were found to decrease functional gene diversity. However, the observed decrease in functional gene diversity was more attributable to a loss in plant productivity, rather than to the loss of any individual plant functional group per se . Reduced productivity limited fresh plant resources supplied to microorganisms, and thus, intensified the pressure of ecological filtering, favoring genes responsible for energy production/conversion, material transport/metabolism and amino acid recycling, and accordingly disfavored many genes with other functions. Furthermore, microbial respiration was correlated with the variation in functional composition but not taxonomic composition. Overall, the amount of carbon/energy resources driving microbial gene diversity was identified to be the critical linkage between above- and below-ground communities, contrary to the traditional framework of linking plant clade/taxonomic diversity to microbial taxonomic diversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ocean oligotrophication concurrent with warming weakens the capacity of marine primary producers to support marine food webs and act as a CO 2 sink, and is believed to result from reduced nutrient inputs associated to the stabilization of the thermocline. However, nutrient supply in the oligotrophic ocean is largely dependent on the recycling of organic matter. This involves hydrolytic processes catalyzed by extracellular enzymes released by bacteria, which temperature-dependence has not yet been evaluated. Here we report a global assessment of the temperature-sensitivity, as represented by the activation energies (E a ), of extracellular β-glucosidase (βG), leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) enzymatic activities, which enable the uptake by bacteria of substrates rich in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. These E a were calculated from two different approaches, temperature experimental manipulations and a space-for-time substitution approach, which generated congruent results. The three activities showed contrasting E a in the subtropical and tropical ocean, with βG increasing the fastest with warming, followed by LAP, while AP showed the smallest increase. The estimated activation energies predict that the hydrolysis products under projected warming scenarios will have higher C:N, C:P and N:P molar ratios than those currently generated, and suggest that the warming of oceanic surface waters leads to a decline in the nutrient supply to the microbial heterotrophic community relative to that of carbon, particularly so for phosphorus, slowing down nutrient recycling and contributing to further ocean oligotrophication. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition under warming is critical to predict carbon–climate feedbacks. According to the substrate regulating principle, SOC decomposition would decrease as labile SOC declines under field warming, but observations of SOC decomposition under warming do not always support this prediction. This discrepancy could result from varying changes in SOC components and soil microbial communities under warming. This study aimed to determine the decomposition of SOC components with different turnover times after subjected to long-term field warming and/or root exclusion to limit C input, and to test whether SOC decomposition is driven by substrate lability under warming. Taking advantage of a 12-year field warming experiment in a prairie, we assessed the decomposition of SOC components by incubating soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion for 3 years. We assayed SOC decomposition from these incubations by combining inverse modeling and microbial functional genes during decomposition with a metagenomic technique (GeoChip). The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO 2 respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C-degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all treatments, suggesting shifts of microbial functional groups as substrate composition was changing. Compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. These are likely responsible for accelerated decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates. Overall, the shifted microbial community induced by long-term warming accelerates the decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates and thus amplify the positive feedback to climate change. The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO 2 respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots compared to the control. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C-degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all the soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion. Meanwhile, compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. Taken together, this study highlights changes in soil microbial community functions induced by long-term warming. The shifted microbial community accelerates the decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates and thus amplify the positive feedback to climate change.

Description: Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short-term (i.e. resistance); although no other effect or interaction was statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium-term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long-term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short-term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium-term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Sea level rise elicits short- and long-term changes in coastal plant communities by altering the physical conditions that affect ecosystem processes and species distributions. While the effects of sea level rise on salt marshes and mangroves are well studied, we focus on its effects on coastal islands of freshwater forest in Florida's Big Bend region, extending a dataset initiated in 1992. In 2014-2015, we evaluated tree survival, regeneration, and understory composition in 13 previously established plots located along a tidal creek; ten plots are on forest islands surrounded by salt marsh, and three are in continuous forest. Earlier studies found that salt stress from increased tidal flooding prevented tree regeneration in frequently flooded forest islands. Between 1992 and 2014, tidal flooding of forest islands increased by 22-117%, corresponding with substantial declines in tree species richness, regeneration, and survival of the dominant tree species, Sabal palmetto (cabbage palm) and Juniperus virginiana (southern red cedar). Rates of S. palmetto and J. virginiana mortality increased nonlinearly over time on the six most frequently flooded islands, while salt marsh herbs and shrubs replaced forest understory vegetation along a tidal flooding gradient. Frequencies of tidal flooding, rates of tree mortality, and understory composition in continuous forest stands remained relatively stable, but tree regeneration substantially declined. Long-term trends identified in this study demonstrate the effect of sea level rise on spatial and temporal community reassembly trajectories that are dynamically re-shaping the unique coastal landscape of the Big Bend. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate warming increases nitrogen (N) mineralization in superficial soil layers (the dominant rooting zone) of subarctic peatlands. Thawing and subsequent mineralization of permafrost increases plant-available N around the thaw-front. Because plant production in these peatlands is N-limited, such changes may substantially affect net primary production and species composition. We aimed to identify the potential impact of increased N-availability due to permafrost thawing on subarctic peatland plant production and species performance, relative to the impact of increased N-availability in superficial organic layers. Therefore, we investigated whether plant roots are present at the thaw-front (45 cm depth) and whether N-uptake ( 15 N-tracer) at the thaw-front occurs during maximum thaw-depth, coinciding with the end of the growing season. Moreover, we performed a unique 3-year belowground fertilization experiment with fully-factorial combinations of deep- (thaw-front) and shallow-fertilization (10 cm depth) and controls. We found that certain species are present with roots at the thaw-front ( Rubus chamaemorus ) and have the capacity (Rubus chamaemorus, Eriophorum vaginatum ) for N-uptake from the thaw-front between autumn and spring when aboveground tissue is largely senescent. In response to 3-year shallow-belowground fertilization (S) both shallow- ( Empetrum hermaphroditum ) and deep-rooting species increased aboveground biomass and N-content, but only deep-rooting species responded positively to enhanced nutrient supply at the thaw-front (D). Moreover, the effects of shallow-fertilization and thaw-front fertilization on aboveground biomass production of the deep-rooting species were similar in magnitude (S: 71%; D: 111% increase compared to control) and additive (S+D: 181% increase). Our results show that plant-available N released from thawing permafrost can form a thus far overlooked additional N-source for deep-rooting subarctic plant species and increase their biomass production beyond the already established impact of warming-driven enhanced shallow N-mineralisation. This may result in shifts in plant community composition and may partially counteract the increased carbon losses from thawing permafrost. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce ( Picea abies ), silver fir ( Abies alba ), and European beech ( Fagus sylvatica ). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought-prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A decisive set of steps in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle is the fixation of atmospheric C by plants and the subsequent C-transfer to rhizosphere microorganisms. With climate change winters are expected to become milder in temperate ecosystems. Although the rate and pathways of rhizosphere C input to soil could be impacted by milder winters, the responses remain unknown. To address this knowledge-gap, a winter-warming experiment was established in a semi-natural temperate grassland in order to follow the C flow from atmosphere, via the plants, to different groups of soil microorganisms. In situ 13 CO 2 pulse labelling was used to track C into signature fatty acids of microorganisms. The winter warming did not result in any changes in biomass of any of the groups of microorganisms. However, the C flow from plants to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, increased substantially by winter warming. Saprotrophic fungi also received large amounts of plant-derived C – indicating a higher importance for the turnover of rhizosphere C than biomass estimates would suggest – still, C flow was unaffected by winter warming. AM fungi was the only microbial group positively affected by winter warming – the group with the closest connection to plants. Winter warming resulted in higher plant productivity earlier in the season, and this aboveground change likely induced plant nutrient limitation in warmed plots, thus stimulating the plant dependence on, and C allocation to, belowground nutrient acquisition. The preferential C allocation to AM fungi was at the expense of C flow to other microbial groups, which were unaffected by warming. Our findings imply that warmer winters may shift rhizosphere C-fluxes to become more AM fungal-dominated. Surprisingly, the stimulated rhizosphere C flow was matched by increased microbial turnover, leading to no accumulation of soil microbial biomass. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Intra-specific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modeling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm-temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP) and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected poleward expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Protected Areas (PAs) cover about 22% of the conterminous U.S. Understanding their role on historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) and on the carbon cycle is essential to provide guidance for environmental policies. In this study, we compiled historical LULCC and PAs data to explore these interactions within the terrestrial biogeochemistry model (TEM). We found that intensive LULCC occurred in the conterminous U.S. from 1700 to 2005. More than three million km 2 of forest, grassland and shrublands were converted into agricultural lands, which caused 10,607 Tg C release from land ecosystems to atmosphere. PAs had experienced little LULCC as they were generally established in the 20 th century after most of the agricultural expansion had occurred. PAs initially acted as a carbon source due to land use legacies, but their accumulated carbon budget switched to a carbon sink in the 1960s, sequestering an estimated 1,642 Tg C over 1700-2005, or 13.4% of carbon losses in non-PAs. We also find that PAs maintain larger carbon stocks and continue sequestering carbon in recent years (2001-2005), but at a lower rate due to increased heterotrophic respiration as well as lower productivity associated to aging ecosystems. It is essential to continue efforts to maintain resilient, biodiverse ecosystems and avoid large-scale disturbances that would release large amounts of carbon in PAs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The stability of northern peatland's carbon (C) store under changing climate is of major concern for the global C cycle. The aquatic export of C from boreal peatlands is recognized as both a critical pathway for the remobilization of peat C stocks as well as a major component of the net ecosystem C balance (NECB). Here, we present a full year characterization of radiocarbon content ( 14 C) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) exported from a boreal peatland catchment coupled with 14 C characterization of the catchment's peat profile of the same C-species. The age of aquatic C in runoff varied little throughout the year and appeared to be sustained by recently fixed C from the atmosphere (〈60 years), despite stream DOC, CO 2 , and CH 4 primarily being sourced from deep peat horizons (2-4m) near the mire's outlet. In fact, the 14 C content of DOC, CO 2 and CH 4 across the entire peat profile was considerably enriched with post-bomb C compared with the solid peat material. Overall, our results demonstrate little to no mobilization of ancient C stocks from this boreal peatland and a relatively large resilience of the source of aquatic C export to forecasted hydro-climatic changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 yrs) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 yrs) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures ( T max ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T max were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines of species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicate that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.