ALBERT

Description: Imperfect scaling in distributions of radar-derived rainfall fields Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11385-11422, 2013 Author(s): M. J. van den Berg, L. Delobbe, and N. E. C. Verhoest Fine scale rainfall observations for modeling exercises are often not available, but rather coarser data derived from a variety of sources are used. Effectively using these data sources in models often requires the probability distribution of the data at the applicable scale. Although numerous models for scaling distributions exist, these are often based on theoretical developments, rather than on data. In this study, we develop a model based on the α-stable distribution of rainfall fields, and tested on 5 min radar data from a Belgian weather radar. We use these data to estimate functions that describe parameters of the distribution over various scales. Moreover, we study how the mean of the distribution and the intermittency change with scale, and validate and design functions to describe the shape parameter of the distribution. This information was combined into an effective model of the distribution. Finally, the model was fitted to data from numerous storms, and the resulting parameters were compared to investigate the change in scaling behavior through time.

Description: Spatially resolved information on karst conduit flow from in-cave dye-tracing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11311-11335, 2013 Author(s): U. Lauber, W. Ufrecht, and N. Goldscheider Artificial tracers are powerful tools to investigate karst systems. Tracers are commonly injected into sinking streams or dolines, while springs serve as monitoring sites. The obtained flow and transport parameters represent mixed information from the vadose, epiphreatic and phreatic zones, i.e., the aquifer remains a black box. Accessible active caves constitute valuable but underexploited natural laboratories to gain detailed insights into the hydrologic functioning of the aquifer. Two multi-tracer tests in the catchment of a major karst spring (Blautopf, Germany) with injections and monitoring in two associated water caves aimed at obtaining spatially and temporally resolved information on groundwater flow in different compartments of the system. Two tracers were injected in the caves to characterize the hydraulic connections between them and with the spring. Two injections at the land surface, far from the spring, aimed at resolving the aquifer's internal drainage structure. Tracer breakthrough curves were monitored by field fluorimeters in caves and at the spring. Results demonstrate the dendritic drainage structure of the aquifer. It was possible to obtain relevant flow and transport parameters for different sections of this system. The highest mean flow velocities (275 m h −1 ) were observed in the near-spring epiphreatic section (open-channel flow), while velocities in the phreatic zone (pressurized flow) were one order of magnitude lower. Determined conduit water volumes confirm results of water balances and hydrograph analyses. In conclusion, experiments and monitoring in caves can deliver spatially resolved information on karst aquifer heterogeneity and dynamics that cannot be obtained by traditional investigative methods.

Description: On the lack of robustness of hydrologic models regarding water balance simulation – a diagnostic approach on 20 mountainous catchments using three models of increasing complexity Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11337-11383, 2013 Author(s): L. Coron, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, M. Bourqui, and F. Hendrickx This paper investigates the robustness of rainfall–runoff models when their parameters are transferred in time. More specifically, we studied their ability to simulate water balance on periods with different hydroclimatic characteristics. The testing procedure consisted in a series of parameter transfers between 10-yr periods and the systematic analysis of mean-volume errors. This procedure was applied to three conceptual models of different structural complexity over 20 mountainous catchments in southern France. The results showed that robustness problems are common. Errors on 10-yr-mean flows were significant for all three models and calibration periods, even when the entire record was used for calibration. Various graphical and numerical tools were used to show strong similarities between the shapes of mean flow biases calculated on a 10-yr-long sliding window when various parameter sets are used. Unexpected behavioural similarities were observed between the three models tested, considering their large differences in structural complexity. While the actual causes for robustness problems in these models remain unclear, this work stresses the limited transferability in time of the water balance adjustments made through parameter optimization. Although absolute differences between simulations obtained with different calibrated parameter sets were sometimes substantial, relative differences in simulated mean flows between time periods remained similar regardless of the calibrated parameter sets.

Description: Antecedent flow conditions and nitrate concentrations in the Mississippi River Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11451-11484, 2013 Author(s): J. C. Murphy, R. M. Hirsch, and L. A. Sprague The influence of antecedent flow conditions on nitrate concentrations was explored at eight sites in the Mississippi River Basin, USA. Antecedent moisture conditions have been shown to influence nutrient export from small, relatively homogenous basins, but this influence has not been observed at a regional or continental scale. Antecedent flow conditions were quantified as the ratio between the mean daily flow of the previous year and the mean daily flow from the period of record ( Q ratio), and the Q ratio was statistically related to nitrate anomalies (the unexplained variability in nitrate concentration after filtering out season, long-term trend, and contemporaneous flow effects) at each site. Nitrate anomaly and Q ratio were negatively related at three of the four major tributary sites and upstream in the Mississippi River, indicating that when the previous year was drier than average, at these sites, nitrate concentrations were higher than expected. The strength of these relationships increased when data were subdivided by contemporaneous flow conditions. Five of the eight sites had significant negative relationships ( p ≤ 0.05) at high or moderately high contemporaneous flows, suggesting nitrate that accumulates in these basins during a drought is flushed during subsequent storm events. At half of the sites, when flow during the previous year was 50% drier than average, nitrate concentration can be from 9 and 27% higher than nitrate concentrations that follow a year with average daily flow. Conversely, nitrate concentration can be from 8 and 21% lower than expected when the previous year was 50% wetter than average. These relationships between nitrate concentration and Q ratio serve as the basis for future studies that can better define specific hydrologic processes occurring during and after a drought, which influence nitrate concentration, such as the duration or magnitude of low flows, and the timing of low and high flows.

Description: Contribution of snow and glacier melt to discharge for highly glacierised catchments in Norway Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11485-11517, 2013 Author(s): M. Engelhardt, T. V. Schuler, and L. M. Andreassen Glacierised catchments significantly alter the streamflow regime due to snow and glacier meltwater contribution to discharge. In this study, we modelled the mass balance and discharge rates for three highly glacierised catchments (〉50% glacier cover) in western Norway over the period 1961–2012. The spatial pattern of the catchments follows a gradient in climate continentality from west to east. The model uses gridded temperature and precipitation values from seNorge ( http://senorge.no ) as input which are available at a daily resolution. It accounts for accumulation of snow, transformation of snow to firn and ice, evaporation and melt. The model was calibrated for each catchment based on measurements of seasonal glacier mass-balances and daily discharge rates. For validation, daily melt rates were compared with measurements from sonic rangers located in the ablation zones of two of the glaciers and an uncertainty analysis was performed for the third catchment. The discharge contributions from snowmelt, glacier melt and rain were analysed with respect to spatial variations and temporal evolution. The model simulations reveal an increase of the relative contribution from glacier melt for the three catchments from less than 10% in the early 1990s to 15–30% in the late 2000s. The decline in precipitation by 10–20% in the same period was therefore overcompensated resulting in an increase of the annual discharge by 5–20%. Annual discharge sums and annual glacier melt are strongest correlated with annual and winter precipitation at the most maritime glacier and, with increased climate continentality, variations in both glacier melt contribution and annual discharge are becoming stronger correlated with variations in summer temperatures.

Description: Bias correction can modify climate model-simulated precipitation changes without adverse affect on the ensemble mean Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11585-11611, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer and D. W. Pierce When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated trends. This has important implications when the precipitation will be used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. We use daily precipitation output from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) over the conterminous United States interpolated to a common 1° grid, and gridded observations aggregated to the same scale, to compare precipitation differences before and after quantile mapping bias correction. The change in seasonal mean (winter, DJF, and summer, JJA) precipitation between different 30-yr historical periods is compared to examine (1) the consensus among GCMs as to whether the bias correction tends to amplify or diminish their simulated precipitation trends, and (2) whether the modification of the change in precipitation tends to improve or degrade the correspondence to observed changes in precipitation for the same periods. In some cases, for a particular GCM, the trend modification can be as large as the original simulated change, though the areas where this occurs varies among GCMs so the ensemble median shows smaller trend modification. In specific locations and seasons the trend modification by quantile mapping improves correspondence with observed trends, and in others it degrades it. In the majority of the domain the ensemble median is for little effect on the correspondence of simulated precipitation trends with observed. This highlights the need to use an ensemble of GCMs rather than relying on a small number of models to estimate impacts.

Description: The effect of training image and secondary data integration with multiple-point geostatistics in groundwater modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11829-11860, 2013 Author(s): X. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, and K. H. Jensen Multiple-point geostatistic simulation (MPS) has recently become popular in stochastic hydrogeology, primarily because of its capability to derive multivariate distributions from the training image (TI). However, its application in three dimensional simulations has been constrained by the difficulty of constructing 3-D TI. The object-based TiGenerator may be a useful tool in this regard; yet the sensitivity of model predictions to the training image has not been documented. Another issue in MPS is the integration of multiple geophysical data. The best way to retrieve and incorporate information from high resolution geophysical data is still under discussion. This work shows that TI from TiGenerator delivers acceptable results when used for groundwater modeling, although the TI directly converted from high resolution geophysical data leads to better simulation. The model results also indicate that soft conditioning in MPS is a convenient and efficient way of integrating secondary data such as 3-D airborne electromagnetic data, but over conditioning has to be avoided.

Description: Multi-decadal river flows variations in France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11861-11900, 2013 Author(s): J. Boé and F. Habets In this article, multi-decadal variations in French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based on long observed series, it is shown that river flows in France generally exhibit large multi-decadal variations on the historical period, especially in spring. Differences of means between two 21 yr periods of the 20th century as large as 40% are indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring river flows variations are associated with variations in spring precipitation and temperature. These multi-decadal variations in precipitation are themselves found to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, more precisely by a multi-decadal oscillation in a sea level pressure dipole between western Europe and the East Atlantic. It is suggested that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the main mode of decadal variability in the North Atlantic/Europe sector, controls those variations in large-scale circulation and is therefore the main ultimate driver of multi-decadal variations in spring river flows. Multi-decadal variations in river flows in other seasons, and in particular summer, are also noted. As they are not associated with significant surface climate anomalies (i.e. temperature, precipitation) in summer, other mechanisms are investigated based on hydrological simulations. The impact of climate variations in spring on summer soil moisture, and the impact of soil moisture in summer on the runoff to precipitation ratio, could potentially play a role in multi-decadal summer river flows variations. The large amplitude of the multi-decadal variations in French river flows suggests that internal variability may play a very important role in the evolution of river flows during the next decades, potentially temporarily limiting, reversing or seriously aggravating the long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Description: Teleconnection analysis of runoff and soil moisture over the Pearl River basin in South China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11943-11982, 2013 Author(s): J. Niu, J. Chen, and B. Sivakumar This study explores the teleconnection of two climatic patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is used to simulate the daily hydrological processes over the basin for the study period 1952–2000, and then, using the simulation results, the time series of the monthly runoff and soil moisture anomalies for its ten sub-basins are aggregated. Wavelet analysis is performed to explore the variability properties of these time series at 49 timescales ranging from 2 months to 9 yr. Use of wavelet coherence and rank correlation method reveals that the dominant variabilities of the time series of runoff and soil moisture are basically correlated with IOD. The influences of ENSO on the terrestrial hydrological processes are mainly found in the eastern sub-basins. The teleconnections between climatic patterns and hydrological variability also serve as a reference basis for inferences on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events (e.g. floods and droughts).

Description: Hydrological functions of sinkholes and characteristics of point recharge in groundwater basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11423-11449, 2013 Author(s): N. Somaratne, K. Smettem, J. Lawson, K. Nguyen, and J. Frizenschaf Karstic limestone aquifers are hydrologically and hydrochemically extremely heterogeneous and point source recharge via sinkholes and fissures is a common feature. We studied three groundwater systems in karstic settings dominated by point source recharge in order to assess the relative contributions to total recharge from point sources using chloride and δ 18 O relations. Preferential groundwater flows were observed through an inter-connected network of highly conductive zones with groundwater mixing along flow paths. Measurements of salinity and chloride indicated that fresh water pockets exist at point recharge locations. A measurable fresh water plume develops only when a large quantity of surface water enters the aquifer as a point recharge source. The difference in chloride concentrations in diffuse and point recharge zones decreases as aquifer saturated thickness increases and the plumes become diluted through mixing. The chloride concentration in point recharge fluxes crossing the watertable plane can remain at or near surface runoff chloride concentrations, rather than in equilibrium with groundwater chloride. In such circumstances the conventional chloride mass balance method that assumes equilibrium of recharge water chloride with groundwater requires modification to include both point and diffuse recharge mechanisms.

Description: Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River Basin using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11559-11584, 2013 Author(s): X. Chen, Z. Hao, N. Devineni, and U. Lall A Hierarchal Bayesian model for forecasting regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead using exogenous climate variables for East Central China is presented. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multilevel structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multivariate normal distribution results in partial-pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include Receiver Operating Characteristic, Reduction of Error, Coefficient of Efficiency, Rank Probability Skill Scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies.

Description: A spatial bootstrap technique for parameter estimation of rainfall annual maxima distribution Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11755-11794, 2013 Author(s): F. Uboldi, A. N. Sulis, C. Lussana, M. Cislaghi, and M. Russo Estimation of extreme event distributions and depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves is achieved at any target site by repeated sampling among all available raingauge data in the surrounding area. The estimate is computed over a gridded domain in Northern Italy, using precipitation time series from 1929 to 2011, including data from historical analog stations and from the present-day automatic observational network. The presented local regionalisation naturally overcomes traditional station-point methods, with their demand of long historical series and their sensitivity to very rare events occurring at very few stations, possibly causing unrealistic spatial gradients in DDF relations. At the same time, the presented approach allows for spatial dependence, necessary in a geographical domain such as Lombardy, complex for both its topography and its climatology. The bootstrap technique enables evaluating uncertainty maps for all estimated parameters and for rainfall depths at assigned return periods.

Description: Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11643-11710, 2013 Author(s): R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno During the first Hymex campaign (5 September–6 November 2012) referred to as Special Observation Period (SOP-1), dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in Western Mediterranean, three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were activated: Liguria-Tuscany, North-Eastern Italy and Central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models has allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen the strict collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper, an overview of the Italian organization during the SOP-1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12–13 September 2012) in North-Eastern Italy, IOP13 (15–16 October 2012) in Central Italy and IOP19 (3–5 November 2012) in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems. Moreover, using one of the three events, the usefulness of different operational chains is highlighted.

Description: Correcting basin-scale snowfall in a mountainous basin using a distributed snowmelt model and remote sensing data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11711-11753, 2013 Author(s): M. Shrestha, L. Wang, T. Koike, H. Tsutsui, Y. Xue, and Y. Hirabayashi Adequate estimation of the spatial distribution of snowfall is critical in hydrologic modeling. However, this is a well-known problem in estimating basin-scale snowfall, especially in mountainous basins with data scarcity. This study focuses on correction and estimation of this spatial distribution, which considers topographic effects within the basin. A method is proposed that optimizes an altitude-based snowfall correction factor ( C fsnow ). This is done through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed, multilayer energy and water balance-based snowmelt model (WEB-DHM-S) with observed discharge and remotely sensed snow cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The Shuffled Complex Evolution – University of Arizona automatic search algorithm is used to obtain the optimal value of C fsnow for minimum cumulative error in discharge and snow cover simulations. Discharge error is quantified by Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and relative volume deviation, and snow cover error was estimated by pixel-by-pixel analysis. The study region is the heavily snow-fed Yagisawa Basin of the Upper Tone River in northeast Japan. First, the system was applied to one snow season (2002–2003), obtaining an optimized C fsnow of 0.0007 m −1 . For validation purposes, the optimized C fsnow was implemented to correct snowfall in 2004, 2002 and 2001. Overall, the system was effective, implying improvements in correlation of simulated vs. observed discharge and snow cover. The 4 yr mean of basin-average snowfall for the corrected spatial snowfall distribution was 1160 mm (780 mm before correction). Execution of sensitivity runs against other model input and parameters indicated that C fsnow could be affected by uncertainty in shortwave radiation and setting of the threshold air temperature parameter. Our approach is suitable to correct snowfall and estimate its distribution in poorly-gauged basins, where elevation dependence of snowfall amount is strong.

Description: Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11795-11828, 2013 Author(s): L. Yang, F. Tian, Y. Sun, X. Yuan, and H. Hu Hindcasts based on the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach are carried out in a typical rainfall-dominated basin in China, aiming to examine the roles of initial condition (IC), future atmospheric forcing (FC) and hydrologic model uncertainty (MU) in the streamflow forecast skill. The combined effects of IC and FC are explored within the framework of a forecast window. By implementing virtual numerical simulations without the consideration of MU, it is found that the dominance of IC could last up to 90 days in dry season, while its impact gives way to FC for lead times exceeding 30 days in the wet season. The combined effects of IC and FC on the forecast skill are further investigated by proposing a dimensionless parameter ( β ) that represents the ratio of the total amount of initial water storage and the incoming rainfall. The forecast skill increases exponentially with β , and varies greatly in different forecast windows. Moreover, the influence of MU on forecast skill is examined by focusing on the uncertainty of model parameters. Two different hydrologic model calibration strategies are carried out. The results indicate that the uncertainty of model parameters exhibits a more significant influence on the forecast skill in the dry season than in the wet season. The ESP approach is more skillful in monthly streamflow forecast during the transition period from wet to dry than otherwise. For the transition period from dry to wet, the low skill of the forecasts could be attributed to the combined effects of IC and FC, but less to the biases in the hydrologic model parameters. For the forecasting in dry season, the usefulness of the ESP approach is heavily dependent on the strategy of the model calibration.

Description: A conceptual model of check dam hydraulics for gully control Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11901-11941, 2013 Author(s): C. Castillo, R. Pérez, and J. A. Gómez There is little information in scientific literature regarding the modifications induced by check dam systems in flow regimes in restored gully reaches, despite it being a crucial issue for the design of conservation measures. Here, we develop a conceptual model to classify flow regimes in straight rectangular channels for initial and dam-filling conditions as well as a method of estimating efficiency in order to provide guidelines for optimal design. The model integrates several previous mathematical approaches for assessing the main processes involved (hydraulic jump HJ, impact flow, gradually varied flows). Its performance was compared with the simulations obtained from IBER, a bi-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The impact of check dam spacing (defined by the geometric factor of influence c ) on efficiency was explored. Eleven main classifications of flow regimes were identified depending on the element and level of influence. The model produced similar results when compared with IBER, but led to higher estimations of HJ and impact lengths. Total influence guaranteed maximum efficiency and HJ control defining the location of the optimal c . Geometric total influence ( c = 1) was a valid criterion for the different stages of the structures in a wide range of situations provided that hydraulic roughness conditions remained high within the gully, e.g. through revegetation. Our total influence criterion involved shorter spacing than that habitually recommended in technical manuals for restoration, but was in line with those values found in spontaneous and stable step-pools systems, which might serve as a reference for man-made interventions.

Description: Senstitivity of water balance components to environmental changes in a mountainous watershed: uncertainty assessment based on models comparison Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11983-12026, 2013 Author(s): E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Zabalza, K. Rahman, A. Gago-Silva, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Vicente-Serrano, A. Lehmann, C. L. Tague, and M. Beniston This paper evaluates the response of stream flow and other components of the water balance to changes in climate and land-use in a Pyrenean watershed. It further provides a measure of uncertainty in water resources forecasts by comparing the performance of two hydrological models: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Regional Climate Model outputs for the 2021–2050 time-frame, and hypothetical (but plausible) land-use scenarios considering re-vegetation and wildfire processes were used as inputs to the models. Results indicate an overall decrease in river flows when the scenarios are considered, except for the post-fire vegetation scenario, in which stream flows are simulated to increase. However the magnitude of these projections varies between the two models used, as SWAT tends to produce larger hydrological changes under climate change scenarios, and RHESSys shows more sensitivity to changes in land-cover. The final prediction will therefore depend largely on the combination of the land-use and climate scenarios, and on the model utilized.

Description: Hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment of Western Australia: a projection of rainfall-runoff for future water resources planning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12027-12076, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Islam, M. A. Bari, and A. H. M. F. Anwar Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across South West Western Australia (SWWA) has drawn attention about climate change impact on water resources and its availability in this region. In this paper, hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment in SWWA is investigated using multi-model ensemble approach. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias corrected rainfall data from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3% with respect to observed past (1961–1980) and resulting runoff reduction was found 14%. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall part compared to the low rainfall part. Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected resulting significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed through plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for observed and projected period. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.

Description: Upscaling of evapotranspiration fluxes from instantaneous to daytime scales for thermal remote sensing applications Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7325-7350, 2013 Author(s): C. Cammalleri, M. C. Anderson, and W. P. Kustas Four upscaling methods for estimating daytime evapotranspiration (ET) from single time-of-day snapshots, as commonly retrieved using remote sensing, were compared. These methods are based on the assumption of self-preservation of the ratio between ET and a given reference variable over the daytime hours. The analysis was performed using eddy covariance data collected at 12 AmeriFlux towers, sampling a fairly wide range in climatic and land cover conditions. The choice of energy budget closure method significantly impacted performance using different scaling methodologies. Therefore, a statistical evaluation approach was adopted to better account for the inherent uncertainty in ET fluxes using eddy covariance technique. Overall, this approach suggests that at-surface solar radiation is the most robust reference variable amongst those tested, due to high accuracy of upscaled fluxes and absence of systematic biases. Top-of-atmosphere irradiance was also tested and proved to be reliable under near clear-sky conditions, but tended to overestimate the observed daytime ET during cloudy days. Use of reference ET as a scaling flux did not perform as well as the solar radiation method, but similarly had errors with little seasonal dependency. Finally, the commonly-used evaporative fraction method yielded satisfactory results only in summer months, July and August, and tended to underestimate the observations in the fall/winter seasons from November to January at the flux sites studied.

Description: Global isoscapes for δ 18 O and δ 2 H in precipitation: improved prediction using regionalized climatic regression models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7351-7393, 2013 Author(s): S. Terzer, L. I. Wassenaar, L. J. Araguás-Araguás, and P. K. Aggarwal A Regionalized Climatic Water Isotope Prediction (RCWIP) approach, based on the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), was demonstrated for the purposes of predicting point- and large-scale spatiotemporal patterns of the stable isotope compositions of water (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) in precipitation around the world. Unlike earlier global domain and fixed regressor models, RCWIP pre-defined thirty-six climatic cluster domains, and tested all model combinations from an array of climatic and spatial regressor variables to obtain the best predictive approach to each cluster domain, as indicated by RMSE and variogram analysis. Fuzzy membership fractions were thereafter used as the weights to seamlessly amalgamate results of the optimized climatic zone prediction models into a single predictive mapping product, such as global or regional amount-weighted mean annual, mean monthly or growing-season δ 18 O/δ 2 H in precipitation. Comparative tests revealed the RCWIP approach outperformed classical global-fixed regression-interpolation based models more than 67% of the time, and significantly improved upon predictive accuracy and precision. All RCWIP isotope mapping products are available as gridded GeoTIFF files from the IAEA website ( www.iaea.org/water ) and are for use in hydrology, climatology, food authenticity, ecology, and forensics.

Description: Water displacement by sewer infrastructure in the Grote Nete catchment, Belgium, and its hydrological regime effects Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7425-7467, 2013 Author(s): D. Vrebos, T. Vansteenkiste, J. Staes, P. Willems, and P. Meire Urbanization and especially impervious areas, in combination with wastewater treatment infrastructure, can exert several pressures on the hydrological cycle. These pressures were studied for the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium (8.18% impervious area and 3.89% effective impervious area), based on a combination of empirical and model-based approaches. The effective impervious area, combined with the extent of the wastewater collection regions which do not coincide with the natural catchment boundaries, was used as an indicator for the urbanization pressure. Our study revealed changes in the total upstream areas of the subcatchments between −16% and +3%, and in upstream impervious areas between −99% and +64%. These changes lead to important inter-catchment water transfers. Based on simulations with a physically-based and spatially-distributed hydrological catchment model, profound impacts of effective impervious area on infiltration and runoff were found. The model results show that the changes in impervious areas and related water displacements in and between catchments due to the installation of the wastewater treatment infrastructure severely impacted low flows, peak flows and seasonal trends. They moreover show that it is difficult, but of utmost importance, to incorporate these pressures and artificial processes in an accurate way during the development of hydrological models for urbanized catchments.

Description: Virtual water trade and development in Africa Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7291-7324, 2013 Author(s): M. Konar and K. Caylor A debate has long existed on the relationships between human population, natural resources, and development. Recent research has expanded this debate to include the impacts of trade; specifically, virtual water trade, or the water footprint of traded commodities. We conduct an empirical analysis of the relationships between virtual water trade, population, and development in Africa. We find that increases in virtual water imports do not lead to increases in population growth nor do they diminish human welfare. We establish a new index of virtual water trade openness and show that levels of undernourishment tend to fall with increased values of virtual water trade openness. Countries with small dam storage capacity obtain a higher fraction of their agricultural water requirements from external sources, which may indicate implicit "infrastructure sharing" across nations. Globally, increased crop exports tends to correlate with increased crop water use efficiency, though this relationship does not hold for Africa. However, internal African trade is much more efficient in terms of embodied water resources than any other region in the world. Thus, internal African trade patterns may be compensating for poor internal production systems.

Description: An interdisciplinary swat ecohydrological model to define catchment-scale hydrologic partitioning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7235-7290, 2013 Author(s): C. L. Shope, G. R. Maharjan, J. Tenhunen, B. Seo, K. Kim, J. Riley, S. Arnhold, T. Koellner, Y. S. Ok, S. Peiffer, B. Kim, J.-H. Park, and B. Huwe Land use and climate change have long been implicated in modifying ecosystem services, such as water quality and water yield, biodiversity, and agricultural production. To account for future effects on ecosystem services, the integration of physical, biological, economic, and social data over several scales must be implemented to assess the effects on natural resource availability and use. Our objective is to assess the capability of the SWAT model to capture short-duration monsoonal rainfall-runoff processes in complex mountainous terrain under rapid, event-driven processes in a monsoonal environment. To accomplish this, we developed a unique quality-control gap-filling algorithm for interpolation of high frequency meteorological data. We used a novel multi-location, multi-optimization calibration technique to improve estimations of catchment-wide hydrologic partitioning. We calibrated the interdisciplinary model to a combination of statistical, hydrologic, and plant growth metrics. In addition, we used multiple locations of different drainage area, aspect, elevation, and geologic substrata distributed throughout the catchment. Results indicate scale-dependent sensitivity of hydrologic partitioning and substantial influence of engineered features. While our model accurately reproduced observed discharge variability, the addition of hydrologic and plant growth objective functions identified the importance of culverts in catchment-wide flow distribution. The results of this study provide a valuable resource to describe landscape controls and their implication on discharge, sediment transport, and nutrient loading. This study also shows the challenges of applying the SWAT model to complex terrain and extreme environments. By incorporating anthropogenic features into modeling scenarios, we can greatly enhance our understanding of the hydroecological impacts on ecosystem services.

Description: Technical note: Method of Morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4275-4299, 2013 Author(s): J. D. Herman, J. B. Kollat, P. M. Reed, and T. Wagener The increase in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling warrants a corresponding increase in diagnostic methods capable of analyzing complex models with large numbers of parameters. Sobol ' sensitivity analysis has proven to be a valuable tool for diagnostic analyses of hydrologic models. However, for many spatially distributed models, the Sobol ' method requires a prohibitive number of model evaluations to reliably decompose output variance across the full set of parameters. We investigate the potential of the method of Morris, a screening-based sensitivity approach, to provide results sufficiently similar to those of the Sobol ' method at a greatly reduced computational expense. The methods are benchmarked on the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) model over a six-month period in the Blue River Watershed, Oklahoma, USA. The Sobol ' method required over six million model evaluations to ensure reliable sensitivity indices, corresponding to more than 30 000 computing hours and roughly 180 gigabytes of storage space. We find that the method of Morris is able to correctly identify sensitive and insensitive parameters with 300 times fewer model evaluations, requiring only 100 computing hours and 1 gigabyte of storage space. Method of Morris proves to be a promising diagnostic approach for global sensitivity analysis of highly parameterized, spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4515-4536, 2013 Author(s): G. Di Baldassarre, A. Viglione, G. Carr, L. Kuil, J. L. Salinas, and G. Blöschl Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by the society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.

Description: Integration of remote sensing, RUSLE and GIS to model potential soil loss and sediment yield (SY) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4567-4596, 2013 Author(s): H. Kamaludin, T. Lihan, Z. Ali Rahman, M. A. Mustapha, W. M. R. Idris, and S. A. Rahim Land use activities within a basin serve as one of the contributing factors which cause deterioration of river water quality through its potential effect on erosion. Sediment yield in the form of suspended solid in the river water body which is transported to the coastal area occurs as a sign of lowering of the water quality. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine potential soil loss using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and the sediment yield, in the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) environment within selected sub-catchments of Pahang River Basin. RUSLE was used to estimate potential soil losses and sediment yield by utilizing information on rainfall erosivity ( R ) using interpolation of rainfall data, soil erodibility ( K ) using field measurement and soil map, vegetation cover ( C ) using satellite images, topography (LS) using DEM and conservation practices ( P ) using satellite images. The results indicated that the rate of potential soil loss in these sub-catchments ranged from very low to extremely high. The area covered by very low to low potential soil loss was about 99%, whereas moderate to extremely high soil loss potential covered only about 1% of the study area. Sediment yield represented only 1% of the potential soil loss. The sediment yield (SY) value in Pahang River turned out to be higher closer to the river mouth because of the topographic character, climate, vegetation type and density, and land use within the drainage basin.

Description: Probability distributions for explaining hydrological losses in South Australian catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4597-4626, 2013 Author(s): S. H. P. W. Gamage, G. A. Hewa, and S. Beecham The wide variability of hydrological losses in catchments is due to multiple variables that affect the rainfall-runoff process. Accurate estimation of hydrological losses is required for making vital decisions in design applications that are based on design rainfall models and rainfall-runoff models. Using representative single values of losses, despite their wide variability, is common practice, especially in Australian studies. This practice leads to issues such as over or under estimation of design floods. Probability distributions can be used as a better representation of losses. In particular, using joint probability approaches (JPA), probability distributions can be incorporated into hydrological loss parameters in design models. However, lack of understanding of loss distributions limits the benefit of using JPA. The aim of this paper is to identify a probability distribution function that can successfully describe hydrological losses in South Australian (SA) catchments. This paper describes suitable parametric and non-parametric distributions that can successfully describe observed loss data. The goodness-of-fit of the fitted distributions and quantification of the errors associated with quantile estimation are also discussed a two-parameter Gamma distribution was identified as one that successfully described initial loss (IL) data of the selected catchments. Also, a non-parametric standardised distribution of losses that describes both IL and continuing loss (CL) data were identified. The results obtained for the non-parametric methods were compared with similar studies carried out in other parts of Australia and a remarkable degree of consistency was observed. The results will be helpful in improving design flood applications.

Description: Technical Note: Using wavelet analyses on water depth time series to detect glacial influence in high-mountain hydrosystems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4369-4395, 2013 Author(s): S. Cauvy-Fraunié, T. Condom, A. Rabatel, M. Villacis, D. Jacobsen, and O. Dangles Worldwide, the rapid shrinking of glaciers in response to ongoing climate change is currently modifying the glacial meltwater contribution to hydrosystems in glacierized catchments. Assessing the contribution of glacier run-off to stream discharge is therefore of critical importance to evaluate potential impact of glacier retreat on water quality and aquatic biota. This task has challenged both glacier hydrologists and ecologists over the last 20 yr due to both structural and functional complexity of the glacier-stream system interface. Here we propose a new methodological approach based on wavelet analyses on water depth time series to determine the glacial influence in glacierized catchments. We performed water depth measurement using water pressure loggers over ten months in 15 stream sites in two glacier-fed catchments in the Ecuadorian Andes (〉 4000 m). We determined the global wavelet spectrum of each time series and defined the Wavelet Glacier Signal (WGS) as the ratio between the global wavelet power spectrum value at a 24 h-scale and its corresponding significance value. To test the relevance of the WGS we compared it with the percentage of the glacier cover in the catchments, a metric of glacier influence often used in the literature. We then tested whether one month data could be sufficient to reliably determine the glacial influence. As expected we found that the WGS of glacier-fed streams decreased downstream with the increasing of non-glacial tributaries. We also found that the WGS and the percentage of the glacier cover in the catchment were significantly positively correlated and that one month data was sufficient to identify and compare the glacial influence between two sites, provided that the water level time series were acquired over the same period. Furthermore, we found that our method permits to detect glacial signal in supposedly non-glacial sites, thereby evidencing glacial meltwater infiltrations. While we specifically focused on the tropical Andes in this paper, our approach to determine glacier influence would be applicable to temperate and arctic glacierized catchments. The WGS therefore appears as a powerful and cost effective tool to better understand the hydrological links between glaciers and hydrosystems and assess the consequences of rapid glacier melting.

Description: Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of riparian soil morphology in a restored floodplain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4337-4367, 2013 Author(s): B. Fournier, C. Guenat, G. Bullinger-Weber, and E. A. D. Mitchell Floodplains have been intensively altered in industrialized countries, but are now increasingly being restored and it is therefore important to assess the effect of these restoration projects on the aquatic and terrestrial components of ecosystems. Soils are a functionally crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems but are generally overlooked in floodplain restoration assessment. We studied the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of soil morphology in a restored (riverbed widening) river reach along River Thur (Switzerland) using three criteria (soil diversity, dynamism and typicality) and their associated indicators. We hypothesized that these criteria would correctly discriminate the post-restoration changes in soil morphology within the study site, and that these changes correspond to patterns of vascular plant diversity. Soil diversity and dynamism increased five years after the restoration, but typical soils of braided rivers were still missing. Soil typicality and dynamism correlated to vegetation changes. These results suggest a limited success of the project in agreement with evaluations carried out at the same site using other, more resource demanding methods (e.g. soil fauna, fish, ecosystem functioning). Soil morphology provides structural and functional information on floodplain ecosystems and allows predicting broad changes in plant diversity. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of soil morphology represents a cost-efficient ecological indicator that could easily be integrated into rapid assessment protocols of floodplain and river restoration projects.

Description: Space-time kriging extension of precipitation variability at 12 km spacing from tree-ring chronologies and its implications for drought analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4301-4335, 2013 Author(s): F. Biondi Understanding and preparing for future hydroclimatic variability greatly benefits from long (i.e., multi-century) records at seasonal to annual time steps that have been gridded at km-scale spatial intervals over a geographic region. Kriging is a geostatistical technique commonly used for optimal interpolation of environmental data, and space-time geostatistical models can improve kriging estimates when long temporal sequences of observations exist at relatively few points on the landscape. Here I present how a network of 22 tree-ring chronologies from single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) in the central Great Basin of North America was used to extend hydroclimatic records both temporally and spatially. First, the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC) method was used to reconstruct October–May total precipitation anomalies at each tree-ring site, as these ecotonal environments at the lower forest border are typically moisture limited. Individual site reconstructions were then combined using a hierarchical model of spatio-temporal kriging that produced annual anomaly maps on a 12 × 12 km grid during the period in common among all chronologies (1650–1976). Hydro-climatic episodes were numerically identified and modeled using their duration, magnitude, and peak. Spatial patterns were more variable during wet years than during dry years, and the evolution of drought episodes over space and time could be visualized and quantified. The most remarkable episode in the entire reconstruction was the early 1900s pluvial, followed by the late 1800s drought. The 1930s "Dust Bowl" drought was among the top ten hydroclimatic episodes in the past few centuries. These results directly address the needs of water and natural resource managers with respect to planning for "worst case" scenarios of drought duration and magnitude at the watershed level. For instance, it is possible to analyze which geographical areas are more likely to be impacted by severe and sustained droughts at annual or multiannual timescales and at spatial resolutions commonly used by regional climate models.

Description: Optimising predictor domains for spatially coherent precipitation downscaling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4015-4061, 2013 Author(s): S. Radanovics, J.-P. Vidal, E. Sauquet, A. Ben Daoud, and G. Bontron Statistical downscaling is widely used to overcome the scale gap between predictors from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models or General Circulation Models (GCMs) and predictands like local precipitation, required for example for medium-term operational forecasts or climate change impact studies. The predictors are considered over a given spatial domain which is rarely optimised with respect to the target predictand location. In this study the geopotential predictor domains used by an analogue downscaling method are optimised for 608 target zones covering France. An extended version of the growing rectangular domain algorithm provides an ensemble of five near-optimum domains for each target zone. All five near-optimum domains are consistently equally skillful based on the Continuous Rank Probability Score. Relevance maps calculated for selected target zones first reveal high skill geopotential regions with specific shapes for locations in south-eastern France compared to the rest of the country. In all cases, the optimised domains tend to include the most relevant area on the relevance maps. The domain centers of the optimised domains are mainly distributed following the geographical location of the target location, but there are apparent differences between the windward and the lee side of mountain ridges. Moreover, domains for target zones located in south-eastern France are centered more east and south than the ones for target locations on the same longitude. The size of the optimised domains tends to be larger in the southeastern part of the country, while domains with a very small meridional extent can be found in a east-west band around 47° N. Sensitivity tests on the archive length for the analogue method show a general robustness except for zones with high interannual variability like in the Cévennes area. Moreover, results appear to be rather unsensitive to the starting point of the optimisation algorithm except for zones located in the transition area north of the zones having optimized domains with a small meridional extent. This study paves the way for defining regions with homogeneous geopotential predictor domains for precipitation downscaling over France.

Description: Opportunities and challenges for the use of scintillometer-based catchment-averaged evapotranspiration estimates as model forcing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 3973-4013, 2013 Author(s): B. Samain and V. R. N. Pauwels To date, lumped rainfall-runoff models rely on rough estimates of catchment-averaged potential evapotranspiration (ET p ) rates as meteorological forcing. A model parameter converts this ET p input into actual evapotranspiration (ET act ) estimates. This paper examines the potential use of scintillometer-based ET act rates for rainfall-runoff modeling. It has been found that the reservoir-structure of the rainfall-runoff model functions as a low-pass filter for the ET p input. If the long-term volume of the ET p used in the model simulations is consistent with the data set used for calibration, a good match of the seasonal pattern, using temporally constant ET p data, is sufficient to obtain adequate discharge simulations. However, these results are then obtained with strongly erroneous evapotranspiration estimates. A better match of the diurnal cycle does not lead to better model results. Replacing the ET p inputs by scintillometer-based ET act estimates does not lead to better model predictions. Small underestimations of ET act under stable conditions, which occur at night and during the Winter, and which accumulate to significant amounts, are the cause of this problem. Consistent with other studies, the scintillometer-based ET act estimates can be considered reliable and realistic under unstable conditions. These values can thus be used as forcing for rainfall-runoff models.

Description: Temporal stability of soil moisture patterns measured by proximal ground-penetrating radar Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4063-4097, 2013 Author(s): J. Minet, N. E. C. Verhoest, S. Lambot, and M. Vanclooster We analyzed the temporal stability of soil moisture patterns acquired using a proximal ground-penetrating radar (GPR) in a 2.5 ha agricultural field at five different dates over three weeks. The GPR system was mounted on a mobile platform, allowing for real-time mapping of soil moisture with a high spatial resolution (2–5 m). The spatio-temporal soil moisture patterns were in accordance with the meteorological data and with soil moisture measurements from soil core sampling. Time-stable areas showing the field-average moisture could be revealed by two methods: (1) by the computation of temporal stability indicators based on relative differences of soil moisture to the field-average and (2) by the spatial intersection of the areas showing the field-average. Locations where the mean relative difference was below 0.02 m 3 m −3 extended up to 10% of the field area whereas the intersection of areas showing the field-average within a tolerance of 0.02 m 3 m −3 covered 5% of the field area. Compared to most of the previous studies about temporal stability of soil moisture, time-stable areas and their spatial patterns could be revealed instead of single point locations, owing to the advanced GPR method for real-time mapping. It is believed that determining spatially coherent time-stable areas is more informative rather than determining time-stable points. Other acquisitions over larger time periods would be necessary to assert the robustness of the time-stable areas.

Description: Impacts of tropical cyclones on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4537-4566, 2013 Author(s): C. T. Chang, S. P. Hamburg, J. L. Hwong, N. H. Lin, M. L. Hsueh, M. C. Chen, and T. C. Lin Tropical cyclones (typhoons/hurricanes) have major impacts on the biogeochemistry of forest ecosystems, but the stochastic nature and the long intervals between storms means that there are limited data on their effects. We characterized the impacts of 14 typhoons over six years on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest plantation in Taiwan, a region experiencing frequent typhoons. Typhoons contributed 1/3 of annual rainfall on average, but ranged from 4% to 55%. The stochastic nature of annual typhoon related precipitation poses a challenge with respect to managing the impacts of these extreme events. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that typhoon-related rainfall is not significantly correlated with wind velocity, the current focus of weather forecasts. Thus little advance warning is provided for the hydrological impacts of these storms. The typhoons we studied contributed approximately one third of the annual input and output of most nutrients (except nitrogen) during an average 9.5d yr −1 period, resulting in nutrient input/output rates an order of magnitude greater than during non-typhoon period. Nitrate output balanced input during the non-typhoon period, but during the typhoon period an average of 10 kg ha −1 yr −1 nitrate was lost. Streamwater chemistry exhibited similarly high variability during typhoon and non-typhoon periods and returned to pre-typhoon levels one to three weeks following each typhoon. The streamwater chemistry appears to be very resilient in response to typhoons, resulting in minimal loss of nutrients.

Description: Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11519-11557, 2013 Author(s): A. D. Jayakaran, T. M. Williams, H. Ssegane, D. M. Amatya, B. Song, and C. C. Trettin Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal watersheds in South Carolina in terms of stream flow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow-difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over thirty years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds – a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic shift in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of canopy transpiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

Description: Recent evolution of China's virtual water trade: analysis of selected crops and considerations for policy Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11613-11641, 2013 Author(s): J. Shi, J. Liu, and L. Pinter China has dramatically increased its virtual water import unconsciously for recent years. Many studies have focused on the quantity of traded virtual water but very few go into analysing geographic distribution and the properties of China's virtual water trade network. This paper provides a calculation and analysis of the crop-related virtual water trade network of China based on 27 major primary crops between 1986 and 2009. The results show that China is a net importer of virtual water from water-abundant areas of North and South America, and a net virtual water exporter to water-stressed areas of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Virtual water import is far larger than virtual water export and in both import and export a small number of trade partners control the supply chain. Grain crops are the major contributors to virtual water trade, and among grain crops soybeans, mostly imported from the US, Brazil and Argentina are the most significant. As crop yield and crop water productivity in North and South America are generally higher than those in Asia and Africa, the effect of China's crop-related virtual water trade positively contributes to optimizing crop water use efficiency at the global scale. In order to mitigate water scarcity and secure the food supply, virtual water should be actively incorporated into national water management strategies. From the national perspective, China should reduce the export and increase the import of water-intensive crops. But the sources of virtual water import need to be further diversified to reduce supply chain risks and increase resilience.

Description: Can pH and electrical conductivity monitoring reveal spatial and temporal patterns in wetland geochemical processes? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 699-728, 2013 Author(s): P. J. Gerla Carbonate reactions and equilibria play a dominant role in the biogeochemical function of many wetlands. The US Geological Survey PHREEQC computer code was used to model geochemical reactions that may be typical for wetlands with water budgets characterized by: (a) input dominated by direct precipitation, (b) interaction with groundwater, (c) variable degrees of reaction with organic carbon, and (d) different rates of evapotranspiration. Rainfall with a typical composition was progressively reacted with calcite and organic carbon at various rates and proportions using PHREEQC. Contrasting patterns of the results suggest that basic water quality data collected in the field can reveal differences in the geochemical processes in wetlands. Given a temporal record, these can signal subtle changes in surrounding land cover and use. To demonstrate this, temperature, pH, and electrical conductivity (EC) were monitored for three years in five large wetlands comprising 48 sample sites in northwest Minnesota. EC and pH of samples ranged greatly – from 23 to 1300 μS cm −1 and 5.5 to 9. The largest range in pH was observed in small beach ridge wetlands, where two clusters are apparent: (1) low EC and a wide range of pH and (2) higher pH and EC. Large marshes within a glacial lake – till plain have a broad range of pH and EC, but depend on the specific wetland. Outlying data typically occurred in altered or disturbed areas. The inter-annual and intra-wetland consistency of the results suggests that each wetland system hosts characteristic geochemical conditions.

Description: Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 597-624, 2013 Author(s): C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson Potential evapotranspiration PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from twelve equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman-Monteith equations reproduce best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically-based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the twelve PET equations. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen-Hense and calibrated Blaney-Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley-Taylor, Makkink and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of twelve PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest-southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncetainty is perhaps one of the greatest challenges facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology.

Description: Fuzzy committees of specialised rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 675-697, 2013 Author(s): N. Kayastha, J. Ye, F. Fenicia, and D. P. Solomatine Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialised models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them forming a committee model. This study extends earlier work of using fuzzy committees to combine hydrological models calibrated for different hydrological regimes – by considering the suitability of the different weighting function for objective functions and different class of membership functions used to combine the local models and compare them with global optimal models.

Description: Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 519-555, 2013 Author(s): H. Wazneh, F. Chebana, and T. B. M. J. Ouarda Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA) of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1) the restriction to a particular region which can correspond to a loss of some information and (2) the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently. The proposed method is based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA) approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function φ (e.g. φ minimizing estimation errors). In order to avoid subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of φ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

Description: Geometric dependency of Tibetan lakes on glacial runoff Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 729-768, 2013 Author(s): V. H. Phan, R. C. Lindenbergh, and M. Menenti The Tibetan plateau is an essential source of water for South-East Asia. The run-off from its ~ 34 000 glaciers, which occupy an area of ~ 50 000 km 2 , feed Tibetan lakes and major Asian rivers like Indus and Brahmaputra. Reported glacial shrinkage likely has its impact on the run-off. Unfortunately, accurate quantification of glacial changes is difficult over the high relief Tibetan plateau. However, it has been recently shown that it is possible to directly assess water level changes of a significant part of the ~ 900 Tibetan lakes greater than one square kilometer. This paper exploits different remote sensing products to explicitly create links between Tibetan glaciers, lakes and rivers. The results allow us first to differentiate between lakes with and without outlet. In addition, we introduce the notion of geometric dependency of a lake on glacial runoff, defined as the ratio between the total area of glaciers draining into a lake and the area of the catchment of the lake. These dependencies are determined for all ~ 900 Tibetan lakes. To obtain these results, we combine the so-called CAREERI glacier mask, a lake mask based on the MODIS MOD44W water product and the HydroSHEDS river network product derived from SRTM elevation data. Based on a drainage network analysis, all drainage links between glaciers and lakes are determined. The results show that 25.3% of the total glacier area directly drains into one of 244 Tibetan lakes. The results also give the geometric dependency of each lake on glacial runoff. For example, there are 10~lakes with direct glacial runoff from at least 240 km 2 of glacier. Three case studies, including one over the well-studied Nam Tso, demonstrate how the geometric dependency of a lake on glacial runoff can be directly linked to hydrological processes.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-dataset synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 769-805, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. C. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global datasets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual datasets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct datasets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 datasets. In the individual datasets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in-situ observations (diagnostic datasets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing and atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all datasets and three including only datasets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (1.15 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a decrease in this trend (−1.40 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all datasets) is 1.35 mm per day for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 34 406 km 3 per year for a total land area of 130 922 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET datasets, presents uncertainties between single datasets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET are crucial.

Description: Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2215-2242, 2013 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, H. L. Cloke, J. Thielen-del Pozo, S. Balabanova, J. Daňhelka, A. Vogelbacher, P. Salamon, I. Carrasco, A. J. Cabrera-Tordera, M. Corzo-Toscano, M. Garcia-Padilla, R. J. Garcia-Sanchez, C. Ardilouze, S. Jurela, B. Terek, A. Csik, J. Casey, G. Stankūnavičius, V. Ceres, E. Sprokkereef, J. Stam, E. Anghel, D. Vladikovic, C. Alionte Eklund, N. Hjerdt, H. Djerv, F. Holmberg, J. Nilsson, K. Nyström, M. Sušnik, M. Hazlinger, and M. Holubecka Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantages of HEPS are that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed; and that ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the technical aspects of the model systems themselves. However, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention; such as assessment of the full uncertainty in the forecast chain, multimodel approaches, robust forecast skill assessment and further collaboration and knowledge exchange between operational forecasters and the model development community. In light of limited resources we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement in operational HEPS.

Description: Investigating uncertainty of climate change effect on entering runoff to Urmia Lake Iran Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2183-2214, 2013 Author(s): P. Razmara, A. R. Massah Bavani, H. Motiee, S. Torabi, and S. Lotfi The largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has been faced with a sharp decline in water surface in recent years. This decline is putting the survival of Urmia Lake at risk. Due to the fact that the water surface of lakes is affected directly by the entering runoff, herein we study the effect of climate change on the runoff entering Urmia Lake. Ten climate models among AOGCM-AR4 models in the future time period 2013–2040 will be used, under the emission scenarios A2 and B1. The downscaling method used in this research is the change factor-LARS method, while for simulating the runoff, the artificial neural network was applied. First, both the 30-yr and monthly scenarios of climate change, temperature, and precipitation of the region were generated and weighted by the Beta function (β). Then, the cumulative density function (cdf) for each month was computed. Calculating the scenarios of climate change and precipitation at levels of 25, 50, and 75% of cdf functions, and introducing them into LARS-wg model, the time series of temperature and precipitation in the region in the future time period were computed considering the uncertainty of climate variability. Then, introducing the time series of temperature and precipitation at different risk levels into the artificial neural network, the future runoff was generated. The findings illustrate a decrease of streamflow into Urmia Lake in scenario A2 at the three risk levels 25, 50, and 75% by, respectively, −21, −13, and −0.3%, and an increase by, respectively, 4.7, 13.8, and 18.9% in scenario B1. Also, scenario A2 with its prediction of a warm and dry climate suggests more critical conditions for the future compared to scenario B1 and its cool, humid climate.

Description: Development and comparative evaluation of a stochastic analog method to downscale daily GCM precipitation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2141-2181, 2013 Author(s): S. Hwang and W. D. Graham There are a number of statistical techniques that downscale coarse climate information from global circulation models (GCM). However, many of them do not reproduce the small-scale spatial variability of precipitation exhibited by the observed meteorological data which can be an important factor for predicting hydrologic response to climatic forcing. In this study a new downscaling technique (bias-correction and stochastic analog method, BCSA) was developed to produce stochastic realizations of bias-corrected daily GCM precipitation fields that preserve the spatial autocorrelation structure of observed daily precipitation sequences. This approach was designed to reproduce observed spatial and temporal variability as well as mean climatology. We used the BCSA method to downscale 4 GCM precipitation predictions from 1961 to 1999 over the state of Florida and compared the skill of the method to the results obtained with the commonly used bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) approach, bias-correction and constructed analog (BCCA) method, and a modified version of BCSD which reverses the order of spatial disaggregation and bias-correction (SDBC). Spatial and temporal statistics, transition probabilities, wet/dry spell lengths, spatial correlation indices, and variograms for wet (June through September) and dry (October through May) seasons were calculated for each method. Results showed that (1) BCCA underestimated mean climatology of daily precipitation while the BCSD, SDBC and BCSA methods accurately reproduced it, (2) the BCSD and BCCA methods underestimated temporal variability because of the interpolation and regression schemes used for downscaling and thus, did not reproduce daily precipitation standard deviations, transition probabilities or wet/dry spell lengths as well as the SDBC and BCSA methods, and (3) the BCSD, BCCA and SDBC methods underestimated spatial variability in precipitation resulting in under-prediction of spatial variance and over-prediction of spatial correlation, whereas the new stochastic technique (BCSA) accurately reproduces observed spatial statistics for both the wet and dry seasons. This study underscores the need to carefully select a downscaling method that reproduces all precipitation characteristics important for the hydrologic system under consideration if local hydrologic impacts of climate variability and change are going to be accurately predicted. For low-relief, rainfall-dominated watersheds where reproducing small-scale spatiotemporal precipitation variability is important, the BCSA method is recommended for use over the BCSD, BCCA, or SDBC methods.

Description: A coupled distributed hydrological-stability analysis on a terraced slope of Valtellina (northern Italy) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2287-2322, 2013 Author(s): C. Camera, T. Apuani, and M. Masetti The aim of this work was to understand and reproduce the hydrological dynamics of a slope, which was terraced using dry-stone retaining walls and its response to these processes in terms of stability at the slope scale. The slope studied is located in Valtellina (northern Italy), near the village of Tresenda, and in the last 30 yr has experienced several soil slip/debris flow events. In 1983 alone, such events caused the death of 18 people. Direct observation of the events of 1983 enabled the principal triggering cause of these events to be recognized in the formation of an overpressure at the base of a dry-stone wall, which caused its failure. To perform the analyses it is necessary to include the presence of dry-stone walls, considering the importance they have in influencing hydrological and geotechnical processes at the slope scale. This requires a very high resolution DEM (1 m × 1 m because the walls are from 0.60 m to 1.0 m wide) that has been appositely derived. A hydrogeological raster-based model, which takes into account both the unsaturated and saturated flux components, was applied. This was able to identify preferential infiltration zones and was rather precise in the prediction of maximum groundwater levels, providing valid input for the distributed stability analysis. Results of the hydrogeological model were used for the successive stability analysis. Sections of terrace were identified from the downslope base of a retaining wall to the top of the next downslope retaining wall. Within each section a global method of equilibrium was applied to determine its safety factor. The stability model showed a general tendency to overestimate the amount of unstable areas. An investigation of the causes of this unexpected behavior was, therefore, also performed in order to progressively improve the reliability of the model.

Description: Assessing parameter importance of the Common Land Model based on qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2243-2286, 2013 Author(s): J. D. Li, Q. Y. Duan, W. Gong, A. Z. Ye, Y. J. Dai, C. Y. Miao, Z. H. Di, C. Tong, and Y. W. Sun Proper specification of model parameters is critical to the performance of land surface models (LSMs). Due to high dimensionality and parameter interaction, estimating parameters of a LSM is a challenging task. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a tool that can screen out the most influential parameters on model outputs. In this study, we conducted parameter screening for six output fluxes for the Common Land Model: sensible heat, latent heat, upward longwave radiation, net radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture. A total of 40 adjustable parameters were considered. Five qualitative SA methods, including local, sum-of-trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, delta test and Morris methods, were compared. The proper sampling design and sufficient sample size necessary to effectively screen out the sensitive parameters were examined. We found that there are 2–8 sensitive parameters, depending on the output type, and about 400 samples are adequate to reliably identify the most sensitive parameters. We also employed a revised Sobol' sensitivity method to quantify the importance of all parameters. The total effects of the parameters were used to assess the contribution of each parameter to the total variances of the model outputs. The results confirmed that global SA methods can generally identify the most sensitive parameters effectively, while local SA methods result in type I errors (i.e. sensitive parameters labeled as insensitive) or type II errors (i.e. insensitive parameters labeled as sensitive). Finally, we evaluated and confirmed the screening results for their consistence with the physical interpretation of the model parameters.

Description: Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2353-2371, 2013 Author(s): H. Aksoy, N. E. Unal, E. Eris, and M. I. Yuce In 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, a stochastic model is generated using the measured monthly water level data of the lake. The model is derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the data set. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. For the multiple-trend, the time series is first divided into homogeneous segments by means of SEGMENTER, segmentation software. Four segments are found meaningful practically each fitted with a trend line. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning future development in surrounding areas of the lake.

Description: Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2323-2352, 2013 Author(s): E. Arnone, D. Pumo, F. Viola, L. V. Noto, and G. La Loggia Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test. Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for one hour rainfall duration. Instead, precipitation of long durations have exhibited a decreased trend. With regard to the spatial distribution, increase in short duration precipitation has been observed especially in stations located along the coastline; however, no clear and well-defined spatial pattern have been outlined by the results. Outcomes of analysis for daily rainfall properties have showed that heavy-torrential precipitation tends to be more frequent at regional scale, while light rainfall events exhibited a negative trend at some sites. Values of total annual precipitations confirmed a significant negative trend, mainly due to the reduction during the winter season.

Description: Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2665-2696, 2013 Author(s): D. H. Yan, D. Wu, R. Huang, L. N. Wang, and G. Y. Yang According to the Chinese climate divisions and the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin digital elevation map, the basin is divided into seven sub-regions by means of cluster analysis of the basin meteorological stations using the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. Based on the daily precipitation data of 171 stations for the years 1961–2011, the drought frequency changes with different magnitudes are analyzed and the number of consecutive days without precipitation is used to identify the drought magnitudes. The first precipitation intensity after a drought period is analyzed with the Pearson-III frequency curve, then the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes is observed, as are the drought frequency changes for different years. The results of the study indicated the following: (1) the occurrence frequency of different drought level shows an overall increasing trend; there is no clear interdecadal change shown, but the spatial difference is significant. The occurrence frequencies of severe and extraordinary drought are higher on the North China Plain, Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, as well as on the Inner Mongolia and the Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin. (2) As the drought level increases, the probability of extraordinary rainstorm becomes lower, and the frequency of occurrence of spatial changes in different precipitation intensities vary. In the areas surrounding Bo Sea, the Shandong Peninsula and the Huai River downstream, as the drought level increases, the occurrence frequency of different precipitation intensities first shows a decreasing trend, which becomes an increasing trend when extraordinary drought occurs. In the middle and upper reaches of the Huai River basin, on the Hai River basin piedmont plain and Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia and Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin, the probability of the different precipitation intensities shows an overall decreasing trend. The mountains with high attitude and Tibetan Plateau are located at high altitudes where the variation of different precipitation intensities with the increase in drought level is relatively complex. (3) As the drought frequency increases, areas I, II and V which are located on the coastal and in the river basin are vulnerable to extreme precipitation processes; areas III, IV, VI and VII are located in the inland area where heavier precipitation is not likely to occur.

Description: Spatial distribution of stable water isotopes in alpine snow cover Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2641-2664, 2013 Author(s): N. Dietermann and M. Weiler The aim of this study was to analyze and predict the mean stable water isotopic composition of the snow cover at specific geographic locations and altitudes. In addition, the dependence of the isotopic composition of the entire snow cover on altitude was analyzed. Snow in four Swiss catchments was sampled at the end of the accumulation period in April 2010 and a second time in Mai 2010 and analyzed for stable isotope composition of 2 H and 18 O. The sampling was conducted at both south-facing and north-facing slopes at elevation differences of 100 m for a total altitude difference of approximately 1000 m. The observed variability of isotopic composition of the snow cover was analyzed with stepwise multiple linear regression models. The analysis indicated that there is only a limited altitude effect on the isotopic composition when considering all samples. This is due to the high variability of the isotopic composition of the precipitation during the winter months and, in particular in the case of south-facing slopes, an enrichment of heavy isotopes due to intermittent melting processes. This enrichment effect could clearly be observed in the samples which were taken later in the year. A small altitudinal gradient of the isotopic composition could only be observed at some north-facing slopes. However, the dependence of snow depth and the day of the year were significant predictor variables in all models. This study indicates the necessity to further study the variability of water isotopes in the snow cover to increase prediction for isotopic composition of snowmelt and hence increase model performance of residence time models in alpine areas and to better understand the accumulation processes and the sources of water in the snow cover of high mountains.

Description: A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2697-2741, 2013 Author(s): S. Piccolroaz, M. Toffolon, and B. Majone Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the single fluxes are hardly assessable over long time periods in the absence of high accuracy data. In order to address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically-based model to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion) to air temperature only. The model accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion) by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed formulations) to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water temperature measurements. In particular, the calibration of the parameters in a given case study allows one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the system. In fact, the air temperature variation implicitly contains proper information about the variation of other major processes, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable of the model. Furthermore, the model can be easily used to predict the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA – Canada) considering a 27-yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr used for calibration and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The results show a remarkable agreement with measurements, over the entire data period. The use of air temperature reconstructed by satellite imagery is also discussed.

Description: Hortonian overland flow closure relations in the Representative Elementary Watershed Framework evaluated with observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1769-1817, 2013 Author(s): E. Vannametee, D. Karssenberg, M. R. Hendriks, and M. F. P. Bierkens This paper presents an evaluation of the closure relation for Hortonian runoff that explicitly accounts for sub-REW process heterogeneity and scale effects, proposed in Vannametee et al. (2012). We apply the closure relation, which is embedded in an event-based rainfall-runoff model developed under the REW framework, to a 15 km 2 catchment in the French Alps. The scaling parameters in the closure relation are directly estimated using local and thus observable REW properties and rainstorm characteristics. Evaluation of the simulation results against the observed discharge indicates good performance in reproducing the hydrograph and discharge volume, even without calibration. The discharge prediction exhibits a significant improvement when the closure relation is calibrated with catchment-scale runoff. Our closure relation also yields better predictions when compared with results from a benchmark closure relation that does not consider scale effects. Calibration is done by only changing one of the REW observables, i.e. hydraulic conductivity, as that determines the scaling parameters, using a single prefactor for the entire catchment. This enables the calibration of the (semi)distributed modelling framework in this study to use only a single parameter. The results without calibration suggest that, in the absence of discharge observations, reasonable estimates of catchment-scale runoff responses are possibly based on observations at the sub-REW (i.e. plot) scale. Thus, our study provides a platform for the future development of low-dimensional and robust semi-distributed, physically-based discharge models in ungauged catchments.

Description: The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1859-1896, 2013 Author(s): J. Hannaford, G. Buys, K. Stahl, and L. M. Tallaksen This study seeks to provide a long-term context for the growing number of trend analyses which have been applied to river flows in Europe. Most studies apply trend tests to fixed periods, in relatively short (generally 1960s–present) records. This study adopts an alternative "multi-temporal" approach, whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. The method is applied to 132 catchments with long (1932–2004) hydrometric records from northern and central Europe, which were chosen as they are minimally anthropogenically influenced and have good quality data. The catchments are first clustered into five regions, which are broadly homogenous in terms of interdecadal variability of annual mean flow. The multi-temporal trend approach was then applied to regional time series of different hydrological indicators (annual, monthly and high and low flows). The results reveal that the magnitude and even direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by interdecadal variability. Some short-term trends revealed in previous studies are shown to be unrepresentative of long-term change. For example, previous studies have identified post-1960 river flow decreases in southern and eastern Europe: in parts of eastern Europe, these trends are resilient to study period, extending back to the 1930s; in southern France, longer records show evidence of positive trends which reverse from the 1960s. Recent (post-1960) positive trends in northern Europe are also not present in longer records, due to decadal variations influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results provide a long-term reference for comparison with published and future studies. The multi-temporal approach advocated here is recommended for use in future trend assessments, to help contextualise short-term trends. Future work should also attempt to explain the decadal-scale variations that drive short-term trends, and thus develop more sophisticated methods for trend detection that take account of interdecadal variability and its drivers.

Description: Using a thermal-based two source energy balance model with time-differencing to estimate surface energy fluxes with day-night MODIS observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1897-1941, 2013 Author(s): R. Guzinski, M. C. Anderson, W. P. Kustas, H. Nieto, and I. Sandholt The Dual Temperature Difference (DTD) model, introduced by Norman et al. (2000), uses a two source energy balance modelling scheme driven by remotely sensed observations of diurnal changes in land surface temperature (LST) to estimate surface energy fluxes. By using a time differential temperature measurement as input, the approach reduces model sensitivity to errors in absolute temperature retrieval. The original formulation of the DTD required an early morning LST observation (approximately 1 h after sunrise) when surface fluxes are minimal, limiting application to data provided by geostationary satellites at sub-hourly temporal resolution. The DTD model has been applied primarily during the active growth phase of agricultural crops and rangeland vegetation grasses, and has not been rigorously evaluated during senescence or in forested ecosystems. In this paper we present modifications to the DTD model that enable applications using thermal observation from polar orbiting satellites, such as Terra and Aqua, with day and night overpass times over the area of interest. This allows the application of the DTD model in high latitude regions where large viewing angles preclude the use of geostationary satellites, and also exploits the higher spatial resolution provided by polar orbiting satellites. A method for estimating nocturnal surface fluxes and a scheme for estimating the fraction of green vegetation are developed and evaluated. Modification for green vegetation fraction leads to significantly improved estimation of the heat fluxes from the vegetation canopy during senescence and in forests. Land-cover based modifications to the Priestley–Taylor scheme, used to estimate transpiration fluxes, are explored based on prior findings for conifer forests. When the modified DTD model is run with LST measurements acquired with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, generally satisfactory agreement with field measurements is obtained for a number of ecosystems in Denmark and the United States. Finally, regional maps of energy fluxes are produced for the Danish Hydrological ObsErvatory (HOBE) in western Denmark, indicating realistic patterns based on land use.

Description: An assessment of land use change impacts on the water resources of the Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of Pune, India Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1943-1985, 2013 Author(s): P. D. Wagner, S. Kumar, and K. Schneider Land use changes are altering the hydrologic system and have potentially large impacts on water resources. Rapid socio-economic development drives land use change. This is particularly true in the case of the rapidly developing city of Pune, India. The present study aims at analyzing past land use changes between 1989 and 2009 and their impacts on the water balance in the Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of Pune. Land use changes were identified from three multitemporal land use classifications for the cropping years 1989/1990, 2000/2001, and 2009/2010. The hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration. Two model runs were performed and compared using the land use classifications of 1989/1990 and 2009/2010. The main land use changes were identified as an increase of urban area from 5.1% to 10.1% and cropland from 9.7% to 13.5% of the catchment area during the 20 yr period. Urbanization was mainly observed in the eastern part and conversion to cropland in the mid-northern part of the catchment. At the catchment scale we found that the impacts of these land use changes on the water balance cancel each other. However, at the sub-basin scale urbanization led to an increase of the water yield by up to 7.6%, and a similar decrease of evapotranspiration, whereas the increase of cropland resulted in an increase of evapotranspiration by up to 5.9%.

Description: On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1987-2013, 2013 Author(s): S. Shukla, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier Global seasonal hydrologic prediction is crucial to mitigating the impacts of droughts and floods, especially in the developing world. Hydrologic prediction skill at seasonal lead times (i.e. 1–6 months) comes from knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs – primarily the state of initial soil moisture and snow) and seasonal climate forecast skill (FS). In this study we quantify the contributions of IHCs and FS to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill globally on a relative basis throughout the year. We do so by conducting two model-based experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, one based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and another based on Reverse-ESP (rESP), both for a 47 yr reforecast period (1961–2007). We compare cumulative runoff (CR), soil moisture (SM) and snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts obtained from each experiment with a control simulation forced with observed atmospheric forcings over the reforecast period and estimate the ratio of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of both experiments for each forecast initialization date and lead time. We find that in general, the contributions of IHCs are greater than the contribution of FS over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere during the forecast period starting in October and January (April and July). Over snow dominated regions in the Northern Hemisphere the IHCs dominate the CR forecast skill for up to 6 months lead time during the forecast period starting in April. Based on our findings we argue that despite the limited FS (mainly for precipitation) better estimates of the IHCs could lead to improvement in the current level of seasonal hydrologic forecast skill over many regions of the globe at least during some parts of the year.

Description: Cyanobacterial and microcystins dynamics following the application of hydrogen peroxide to waste stabilisation ponds Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2067-2088, 2013 Author(s): D. J. Barrington, A. Ghadouani, and G. N. Ivey Cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins are a risk to human and ecological health, and a hindrance to biological wastewater treatment. This study investigated the use of hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) for the removal of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins from within waste stabilization ponds (WSPs). The daily dynamics of cyanobacteria and microcystins (a commonly occurring cyanotoxin) were examined following the addition of H 2 O 2 to wastewater within both the laboratory and at the full-scale within a WSP. Hydrogen peroxide treatment at concentrations ≥ 10 −4 g H 2 O 2 μg −1 of total phytoplankton chlorophyll a led to the death of cyanobacteria, in turn releasing intracellular microcystins to the dissolved state. In the full-scale trial, dissolved microcystins were then degraded to negligible concentrations by H 2 O 2 and environmental processes within five days. A shift in the phytoplankton assemblage towards beneficial chlorophyta species was also observed within days of H 2 O 2 addition. However, within weeks, the chlorophyta population was significantly reduced by the re-establishment of toxic cyanobacterial species. This re-establishment was likely due to the inflow of cyanobacteria from ponds earlier in the treatment train, suggesting that whilst H 2 O 2 may be a suitable short-term management technique, it must be coupled with control over inflows if it is to improve WSP performance in the longer term.

Description: How representative are instantaneous evaporative fraction measurements for daytime fluxes? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2015-2028, 2013 Author(s): J. Peng, M. Borsche, Y. Liu, and A. Loew Sun synchronous optical remote sensing is a promising technique to provide instantaneous ET (Evapotranspiration) estimates during satellite overpass. The common approach to extrapolate the instantaneous estimates to values for daily or longer periods relies on the assumption that the EF (Evaporative Fraction, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to surface available energy) remains nearly constant during daytime. However, there is still no consensus on the validity of the self preservation of EF. We used FLUXNET (a global network of eddy covariance stations) measurements to examine this self preservation, and the conditions under which it can hold. It is found here that the instantaneous EF could represent daytime EF under clear-sky conditions especially between 11:00 and 14:00 LT for all the stations. However, the EF is more unstable during cloudy skies. The increase in cloud cover would result in the increase in the variability of EF during daytime. Future works will focus on the evaluation of this EF constant assumption using real remote sensing data over different surface and climate conditions.

Description: Data compression to define information content of hydrological time series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2029-2065, 2013 Author(s): S. V. Weijs, N. van de Giesen, and M. B. Parlange When inferring models from hydrological data or calibrating hydrological models, we might be interested in the information content of those data to quantify how much can potentially be learned from them. In this work we take a perspective from (algorithmic) information theory (AIT) to discuss some underlying issues regarding this question. In the information-theoretical framework, there is a strong link between information content and data compression. We exploit this by using data compression performance as a time series analysis tool and highlight the analogy to information content, prediction, and learning (understanding is compression). The analysis is performed on time series of a set of catchments, searching for the mechanisms behind compressibility. We discuss both the deeper foundation from algorithmic information theory, some practical results and the inherent difficulties in answering the question: "How much information is contained in this data?". The conclusion is that the answer to this question can only be given once the following counter-questions have been answered: (1) Information about which unknown quantities? (2) What is your current state of knowledge/beliefs about those quantities? Quantifying information content of hydrological data is closely linked to the question of separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty and quantifying maximum possible model performance, as addressed in current hydrological literature. The AIT perspective teaches us that it is impossible to answer this question objectively, without specifying prior beliefs. These beliefs are related to the maximum complexity one is willing to accept as a law and what is considered as random.

Description: Detection of global runoff changes: results from observations and CMIP5 experiments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2117-2140, 2013 Author(s): R. Alkama, L. Marchand, A. Ribes, and B. Decharme This paper assesses the detectability of changes in global streamflow. First, a statistical detection method is applied to observed (no missing data) and reconstructed (gaps are filled in order to cover a larger area) streamflow. Observations show no change over the 1958–1992 period. Further, extension to 2004 over the same catchment areas using reconstructed data does not provide evidence of a significant change. Conversely, a significant change is found in reconstructed streamflow when a larger area is considered. These results suggest that changes in global streamflow are still unclear. Next, changes in streamflow as simulated by models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the historical and future RCP 8.5 scenario are investigated. Most CMIP5 models are found to simulate the climatological streamflow reasonably well, except over South America and Africa. Change becomes significant between 2016 and 2040 for all but three models.

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1819-1858, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we use two methods (SCEM-UA and SODA) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated observations. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil-bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We further show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Application of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2089-2115, 2013 Author(s): L. Brocca, S. Liersch, F. Melone, T. Moramarco, and M. Volk A framework for a comprehensive synthetic rainfall-runoff database was developed to study catchment response to a variety of rainfall events. The framework supports effective flood risk assessment and management and implements simple approaches. It consists of three flexible components, a rainfall generator, a continuous rainfall-runoff model, and a database management system. The system has been developed and tested at two gauged river sections along the upper Tiber River (central Italy). One of the main questions was to investigate how simple such approaches can be without impairing the quality of the results. The rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff on the basis of a large number of design rainfall events. The resulting rainfall-runoff database can be used as an effective tool to assess possible streamflow situations assuming different rainfall volumes for the previous and the following days. The application to the study site shows that magnitudes of real flood events were appropriately captured by the database within an uncertainty range. Further work should be dedicated to introducing a component for taking account of the actual temporal distribution of rainfall events into the stochastic rainfall generator.

Description: Opposite distribution pattern of streambed hydraulic conductivity in losing and gaining stream reaches Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1693-1723, 2013 Author(s): X. H. Chen, W. H. Dong, G. X. Ou, Z. W. Wang, and C. Liu In gaining streams, groundwater seeps out into streams. In losing streams, stream water moves into groundwater systems. The flow moving through the streambed sediments under these two types of flow conditions are generally in opposite directions (upward vs. downward). The two opposite flow mechanism will affect the pore size and fine particle content of streambeds. It is thus very likely that the opposite flow conditions affect the streambed hydraulic conductivity. However, comparisons of the hydraulic conductivity ( K ) of streambeds for losing and gaining streams are not well documented. In this study, we examined the K distribution patterns of sediments below the channel surface or stream banks for the Platte River and its tributaries in Nebraska, USA. Two contrast vertical distribution patterns were observed from the test sites. In gaining reaches, hydraulic conductivity of streambed decreases with the depth of the sediment cores. In losing reaches, hydraulic conductivity increases with the depth of the sediment cores. This contrast patterns in the two types of streams were mostly attributed to flow directions during stream water and groundwater exchanges. In losing reaches, downward movement of water brought fine particle into the otherwise coarse sediment matrix, partially silting the pores. For gaining reaches, upward flow winnows fine particles, increasing the pore spacing in the top parts of streambed, leading to higher hydraulic conductivity in shallower parts of streambeds. These flux directions can impact K values to depth of greater than 5 m. At each test sites, in-situ permeameter tests were conducted to measure the K values of the top streambed layer. Statistical analyses indicated that K values from the sites under losing stream condition are significantly different from the K values from the sites under gaining stream condition.

Description: Bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: comparison of theoretical and empirical approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 557-596, 2013 Author(s): A. I. Requena, L. Mediero, and L. Garrote Hydrologic frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Multivariate analyses on flood variables have not been so exhaustively studied despite the fact that they are required to represent the full hydrograph, which is essential for designing some structures like dams. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. An empirical bivariate return period was defined in terms of acceptable risk to the dam through the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, in order to perform a risk assessment of dam overtopping. A Monte Carlo procedure was developed to compare the probability of occurrence of a flood with the return period linked to the risk of dam overtopping. The procedure is applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. A set of synthetic peak-volume pairs was generated by the fitted copula and synthetic hydrographs were routed through the reservoir. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered. Hydrographs with the same risk were represented by a curve in the peak-volume space. These curves were compared to those linked to the probability of occurrence of a flood event, in order to improve the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph.

Description: Pertinent spatio-temporal scale of observation to understand sediment yield control factors in the Andean Region: the case of the Santa River (Peru) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 625-674, 2013 Author(s): S. B. Morera, T. Condom, P. Vauchel, J.-L. Guyot, C. Galvez, and A. Crave Hydro-sedimentology development is a great challenge in Peru due to limited data as well as sparse and confidential information. Consequently, little is known at present about the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), precipitation, runoff, land use and the sediment transport dynamics. The aim of this paper is to bridge this gap in order to quantify and understand the signal of magnitude and frequency of the sediment fluxes from the central western Andes; also, to identify the main erosion control factor and its relevance. The Tablachaca River (3132 km 2 ) and the Santa River (6815 km 2 ), two mountainous Andean catchments that are geographically close to each other, both showed similar statistical daily rainfall and discharge variability but high contrast in sediment yield (SY). In order to investigate which factors are of importance, the continuous water discharge and hourly suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) of the Santa River were studied. Firstly, the specific sediment yield (SSY) at the continental Andes range scale for the Pacific side is one of the highest amounts (2204 t km 2 yr −1 ). Secondly, no relationship between the water discharge ( Q ) and El Niño/La Niñ a events is found over a 54 yr time period. However, the Santa Basin is highly sensitive during mega Niños (1982–1983 and 1997–1998). Lastly, dispersed micro-mining and mining activity in specific lithologies are identified as the major factors that control the high SSY. These remarks make the Peruvian coast key areas for future research on Andean sediment rates.

Description: Assessing hydrological model behaviors by intercomparison of the simulated stream flow compositions: case study in a steep forest watershed in Taiwan Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 855-893, 2013 Author(s): J.-C. Huang, T.-Y. Lee, J.-Y. Lee, S.-C. Hsu, S.-J. Kao, and F.-J. Chang The accurate stream flow composition simulated by different models is rarely discussed, and few studies addressed the model behaviors affected by the model structures. This study compared the simulated stream flow composition derived from two models, namely HBV and TOPMODEL. A total of 23 storms with a wide rainfall spectrum were utilized and independent geochemical data (to derive the stream composition using end-member mixing analysis, EMMA) were introduced. Results showed that both hydrological models generally perform stream discharge satisfactory in terms of the Nash efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, and discharge volume. However, the three simulated flows (surface flow, interflow, and base flow) derived from the two models were different with the change of storm intensity and duration. Both simulated surface flows showed the same patterns. The HBV simulated base flow dramatically increased with the increase of storm duration. However, the TOP-derived base flow remained stable. Meanwhile, the two models showed contrasting behaviors in the interflow. HBV prefers to generate less interflow but percolates more to the base flow to match the stream flow, which implies that this model might be suited for thin soil layer. The use of the models should consider more environmental background data into account. Compared with the EMMA-derived flows, both models showed a significant 2 to 4 h time lag, indicating that the base-flow responses were faster than the models represented. Our study suggested that model intercomparison under a wide spectrum of rainstorms and with independent validation data (geochemical data) is a good means of studying the model behaviors. Rethinking the characterization of the model structure and the watershed characteristics is necessary in selecting the more appropriate hydrological model.

Description: The influence of precipitation and temperature input schemes on hydrological simulations of a snow and glacier melt dominated basin in Northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 807-853, 2013 Author(s): X. Ji and Y. Luo Basins with glaciers and snow provide water storage and supply for downstream irrigated farmland, but their hydrology is often poorly known because there are limited observation networks in high mountain regions. Large uncertainties in hydrological simulations also arise from errors associated with meteorological forcing data. The influence of precipitation and temperature forcing data on hydrological simulations in rain/snow dominated watershed is well documented, but less so in basins with glaciers. We analyzed the impacts and reliability of precipitation/temperature input solutions on hydrological simulations in the glacier/snow dominated Manas River Basin, showing that precipitation pattern has significant impact on snow accumulation and melt, and further impacts on simulated glacier melt behavior. The temperature inputs affect not only the timing of discharge but also the total water yield. The uncertainty associated with simple estimated input data propagates and is amplified through the modeling process. We suggest that the impacts of forcing data on hydrological simulations in basins with glaciers are more complex than in common rain/snow dominated watersheds. Glacier melt behavior may conceal uncertainties that are actually derived from input data. Assessment of hydrological model performance should include investigation of key processes involved in the hydrologic cycle individually, not just comparisons of simulated and observed discharge.

Description: Water-use dynamics of a peat swamp forest and a dune forest in Maputaland, South Africa Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1725-1768, 2013 Author(s): A. D. Clulow, C. S. Everson, J. S. Price, G. P. W. Jewitt, and B. C. Scott-Shaw Peat swamp forests are the second rarest forest type found in South Africa while dune forests have been under severe threat through mining and agriculture. Both forest types exist in the conservation area, and World Heritage site, known as the iSimangaliso Wetland Park on the East coast of South Africa. The area is prone to severe droughts (Taylor et al., 2006) and recent attempts to understand the local water-balance revealed that there was insufficient information on the water-use of the indigenous forests of the area. The Peat Swamp Forest and Dune Forest sites studied in this research were located within close proximity to each other, yet, are characterised by different landscape positions in terms of water availability. The coastal dune forest soil profile was generally dry and sandy and the trees' roots did not have access to the water table. In contrast the peat swamp forest is located in an interdunal wetland where the trees have permanent access to water. The climate at both sites is subtropical with a mean annual precipitation of 1200 mm yr −1 . However, over 20 months of measurement, the first summer (October 2009 to March 2010) was drier (424 verses 735 mm) than the second summer (October 2010 to March 2011) emphasising the variability of the rainfall in the area and providing a wide range of conditions measured. The sapflow of an evergreen, overstory Syzygium cordatum and a semi-deciduous, understory Shirakiopsis elliptica were measured in the peat swamp forest using the heat ratio method. The Syzygium cordatum water-use was not highly seasonal and the daily maximum water-use ranged from approximately 30 L d −1 in winter to 45 L d −1 in summer whereas the Shirakiopsis elliptica water-use was more seasonal at 2 L d −1 in winter and 12 L d −1 in summer. The water-use of the Syzygium cordatum was not influenced by seasonal rainfall variations and was actually higher in the drier summer (October 2009 to March 2010). Three trees of different heights were monitored in the same way in the dune forest and the water-use found to be highly seasonal. Over the entire measurement period, the water-use was highest for an emergent Mimusops caffra (5 to 45 L d −1 ), whereas the water-use of the Eugenia natalitia (2 to 28 L d −1 ) and Drypetes natalensis (1 to 4 L d −1 ) was lower. At the dune forest, the water-use was highest in the wetter summer due to the reliance of the trees on rainfall to recharge the soil water. A split-line regression showed that on average, soil water limited tree water-use 64% of the time over the measurement period at the dune forest. For modeling tree water-use at the dune forest, it was concluded that a two-stage model, taking soil water content into account (from multiple sampling points), would be necessary.

Description: Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1617-1655, 2013 Author(s): S. Galelli and A. Castelletti Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modeling. In this paper we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modeling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalization property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally very efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analyzed on two real-world case studies (Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia)) representing two different morphoclimatic contexts comparatively with other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

Description: Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1657-1691, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer, T. Das, and D. R. Cayan When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and observations for a historical period. We demonstrate some complications in this assumption, with GCM biases varying between mean and extreme values and for different sets of historical years. Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from late 20th century simulations by four GCMs over the United States were compared to gridded observations. Using random years from the historical record we select a "base" set and a 10-yr independent "projected" set. We compare differences in biases between these sets at median and extreme percentiles. On average a base set with as few as 4 randomly-selected years is often adequate to characterize the biases in daily GCM precipitation and temperature, at both median and extreme values; 12 yr provided higher confidence that bias correction would be successful. This suggests that some of the GCM bias is time invariant. When characterizing bias with a set of consecutive years, the set must be long enough to accommodate regional low frequency variability, since the bias also exhibits this variability. Newer climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment will allow extending this study for a longer observational period and to finer scales.

Description: Improving soil moisture profile prediction from ground-penetrating radar data: a maximum likelihood ensemble filter approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1581-1615, 2013 Author(s): A. P. Tran, M. Vanclooster, and S. Lambot The vertical profile of root zone soil moisture plays a key role in many hydro-meteorological and agricultural applications. We propose a closed-loop data assimilation procedure based on the maximum likelihood ensemble filter algorithm to update the vertical soil moisture profile from time-lapse ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. A hydrodynamic model is used to propagate the system state in time and a radar electromagnetic model to link the state variable with the observation data, which enables us to directly assimilate the GPR data. Instead of using the surface soil moisture only, the approach allows to use the information of the whole soil moisture profile for the assimilation. We validated our approach by a synthetic study. We constructed a synthetic soil column with a depth of 80 cm and analyzed the effects of the soil type on the data assimilation by considering 3 soil types, namely, loamy sand, silt and clay. The assimilation of GPR data was performed to solve the problem of unknown initial conditions. The numerical soil moisture profiles generated by the Hydrus-1D model were used by the GPR model to produce the "observed" GPR data. The results show that the soil moisture profile obtained by assimilating the GPR data is much better than that of an open-loop forecast. Compared to the loamy sand and silt, the updated soil moisture profile of the clay soil converges to the true state much more slowly. Increasing update interval from 5 to 50 h only slightly improves the effectiveness of the GPR data assimilation for the loamy sand but significantly for the clay soil. The proposed approach appears to be promising to improve real-time prediction of the soil moisture profiles as well as to provide effective estimates of the unsaturated hydraulic properties at the field scale from time-lapse GPR measurements.

Description: Synchronicity of historical dry spells in the Southern Hemisphere Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 14571-14590, 2013 Author(s): D. C. Verdon-Kidd and A. S. Kiem A shift in climate occurred during the mid-1970s that affected the hydroclimate of the Southern Hemisphere resulting in drying trends across continental regions including Australia, New Zealand and southern and western Africa. There is also anecdotal evidence of other periods of climatic synchronicity in the Southern Hemisphere (e.g. the 1920s and 1940s), indicating that the mid 1970s event may not be anomalous. This paper identifies periods within the last ~120 yr using statistical analysis where dry spells (in terms of annual to multi-decadal rainfall deficiencies) have coincided across the continental Southern Hemisphere in order to characterize temporal consistency. It is shown that synchronicity of dry spells is (a) most likely common over the last 120 yr and (b) associated with changes in the large-scale climate modes of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans. Importantly, the findings presented in this paper have marked implications for drought management and drought forecasting studies in the Southern Hemisphere.

Description: A strategy for "constraint-based" parameter specification for environmental models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 14857-14871, 2013 Author(s): S. Gharari, M. Shafiei, M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. V. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije Many environmental systems models, such as conceptual rainfall-runoff models, rely on model calibration for parameter identification. For this, an observed output time series (such as runoff) is needed, but frequently not available. Here, we explore another way to constrain the parameter values of semi-distributed conceptual models, based on two types of restrictions derived from prior (or expert) knowledge. The first, called "parameter constraints", restrict the solution space based on realistic relationships that must hold between the different parameters of the model while the second, called "process constraints" require that additional realism relationships between the fluxes and state variables must be satisfied. Specifically, we propose a strategy for finding parameter sets that simultaneously satisfy all such constraints, based on stepwise sampling of the parameter space. Such parameter sets have the desirable property of being consistent with the modeler's intuition of how the catchment functions, and can (if necessary) serve as prior information for further investigations by reducing the prior uncertainties associated with both calibration and prediction.

Description: On the reliability of analytical models to predict solute transport in a fracture network Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 14905-14948, 2013 Author(s): C. Cherubini, C. I. Giasi, and N. Pastore In hydrogeology, the application of reliable tracer transport model approaches is a key issue to derive the hydrodynamic properties of aquifers. Laboratory and field-scale tracer dispersion breakthrough curves (BTC) in fractured media are notorious for exhibiting early time arrivals and late-time tailing that are not captured by the classical advection–dispersion equation (ADE). These "non-Fickian" features are proved to be better explained by a mobile–immobile (MIM) approach. In this conceptualization the fractured rock system is schematized as a continuous medium in which the liquid phase is separated into flowing and stagnant regions. The present study compares the performances and reliabilities of classical Mobile–Immobile Model (MIM) and the Explicit Network Model (ENM) that takes expressly into account the network geometry for describing tracer transport behavior in a fractured sample at bench scale. Though ENM shows better fitting results than MIM, the latter remains still valid as it proves to describe the observed curves quite well. The results show that the presence of nonlinear flow plays an important role in the behaviour of solute transport. Firstly the distribution of solute according to different pathways is not constant but it is related to the flow rate. Secondly nonlinear flow influences advection, in that it leads to a delay in solute transport respect to the linear flow assumption. Whereas nonlinear flow does not show to be related with dispersion. However the interpretation with the ENM model shows a weak transitional regime from geometrical dispersion to Taylor dispersion for high flow rates. The experimental results show that in the study case the geometrical dispersion dominates the Taylor dispersion. Incorporating the description of the flowpaths in the analytical modeling has proved to better fit the curves and to give a more robust interpretation of the solute transport.

Description: Modeling the snow surface temperature with a one-layer energy balance snowmelt model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 15071-15118, 2013 Author(s): J. You, D. G. Tarboton, and C. H. Luce \label{sec:abstract} Snow surface temperature is a key control on energy exchanges at the snow surface, particularly net longwave radiation and turbulent energy fluxes. The snow surface temperature is in turn controlled by the balance between various external fluxes and the conductive heat flux, internal to the snowpack. Because of the strong insulating properties of snow, thermal gradients in snow packs are large and nonlinear, a fact that has led many to advocate multiple layer snowmelt models over single layer models. In an effort to keep snowmelt modeling simple and parsimonious, the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) snowmelt model used only one layer but allowed the snow surface temperature to be different from the snow average temperature by using an equilibrium gradient parameterization based on the surface energy balance. Although this procedure was considered an improvement over the ordinary single layer snowmelt models, it still resulted in discrepancies between modeled and measured snowpack energy contents. In this paper we examine the parameterization of snow surface temperature in single layer snowmelt models from the perspective of heat conduction into a semi-infinite medium. We evaluate the equilibrium gradient approach, the force-restore approach, and a modified force-restore approach. In addition, we evaluate a scheme for representing the penetration of a refreezing front in cold periods following melt. We also introduce a method to adjust effective conductivity to account for the presence of ground near to a shallow snow surface. These parameterizations were tested against data from the Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, CA, Utah State University experimental farm, UT, and Subnivean snow laboratory at Niwot Ridge, CO. These tests compare modeled and measured snow surface temperature, snow energy content, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt outflow. We found that with these refinements the model is able to better represent the snowpack energy balance and internal energy content while still retaining a parsimonious one layer format.

Description: Determination of cost coefficients of priority-based water allocation linear programming model – a network flow approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 15033-15070, 2013 Author(s): F. N.-F. Chou and C.-W. Wu This paper presents a method to establish the objective function of a network flow programming model for simulating river/reservoir system operations and associated water allocation, with an emphasis on situations when the links other than demand or storage have to be assigned with nonzero cost coefficients. The method preserves the priorities defined by rule curves of reservoir, operational preferences for conveying water, allocation of storage among multiple reservoirs, and trans-basin water diversions. Path enumeration analysis transforms these water allocation rules into linear constraints that can be solved to determine link cost coefficients. An approach to prune the original system into a reduced network is proposed to establish the precise constraints of nonzero cost coefficients which can then be efficiently solved. The cost coefficients for the water allocation in the Feitsui and Shihmen Reservoirs joint operating system of northern Taiwan was adequately assigned by the proposed method. This case study demonstrates how practitioners can correctly utilize network-flow-based models to allocate water supply throughout complex systems that are subject to strict operating rules.

Description: Accounting for environmental flow requirements in global water assessments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 14987-15032, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Pastor, F. Ludwig, H. Biemans, H. Hoff, and P. Kabat With growing water needs for food production, it is necessary to improve the quantification of "Environmental Flow Requirements (EFRs)" to secure enough water for the freshwater ecosystems. In this study, five methods for calculating EFRs were compared to 11 case studies of locally-calculated EFRs. Three of the methods already existed (Smakhtin, Tennant and Tessmann) and two were developed in this study (the Variable Monthly Flow method and the Q 90 _ Q 50 method). The Variable Monthly Flow (VFM) method mimics for the first time the natural flow regimes while being "validated" at global and local scales. The VFM uses algorithms to classify flow regime into high, intermediate and low-flow months to take into account intra-annual variability by allocating EFRs with a percentage of mean monthly flow (MMF). The Q 90 _ Q 50 method allocates annual flow quantiles ( Q 50 and Q 90 ) depending on the flow season. The results showed that, over all methods, 37% of annual discharge was allocated to "Nature" with a higher pressure on low flow requirements (LFR = 46% to 71% of average low flows) than on high flow requirements (HFR = 17% to 45% of average high flows). Environmental flow methods using fixed annual thresholds such as Tennant, Q 90 _ Q 50 and Smakhtin seemed to overestimate EFRs of stable flow regimes and underestimate EFRs of variable flow regimes. VFM and Tessmann methods showed the highest correlation with the locally-calculated EFRs ( R 2 = 0.91). The main difference between the Tessmann and VFM methods is that Tessmann method does not allow any water withdrawals during the low-flow season. Those five methods were tested within the global vegetation and hydrological model LPJml. The calculated global annual EFRs for "fair" ecological conditions represent between 25 to 46% of mean annual flow (MAF). Variable flow regimes such as the Nile have lower EFRs (ranging from 12 to 48% of MAF) than stable tropical regimes such as the Amazon (EFRs ranging from 30 to 67% of MAF).

Description: Stochastic inversion of sequential hydraulic tests for transient and highly permeable unconfined aquifer systems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 14949-14986, 2013 Author(s): C.-F. Ni, Y.-J. Huang, T.-C. J. Yeh, J.-J. Dong, J.-S. Chen, and M.-H. Li A hydraulic tomography survey (HTS) is a conceptually improved technique that has been recognized to be efficient for estimating high-resolution aquifer parameters. Based on the concept of HTS, this study presents a modified stochastic inverse model for estimating hydraulic conductivity ( K ) and specific yield (Sy) in shallow and highly permeable unconfined aquifers. A well field with 15 fully screened wells was developed for the purpose of model implementations. In this study a synthetic example was first employed to assess the accuracy of the inverse model. We then implemented the model to field-scale, cross-hole injection tests in a shallow and highly permeable unconfined aquifer near the middle reach of the Wu River in central Taiwan. To assess the effect of constant head boundary conditions on the estimation results, two additional modeling domains were evaluated based on the same field data from the injection tests. Results for the synthetic example show that the modified inverse model can reproduce well the predefined geologic features of the unconfined aquifer. The inverse model can estimate accurately the ln K patterns and magnitudes. However, slightly fewer details of the ln Sy field are obtained due to the insensitivity of transient hydraulic stresses for specified sampling times. Model implementations of field-scale injection tests show that the model can estimate ln K and ln Sy fields with high spatial resolution. The estimated K and Sy values for the test site vary by one order of magnitude, indicating a relatively homogeneous aquifer for the tested well field. Results based on three different modeling domains show similar patterns and magnitudes of ln K and ln Sy near the well locations. This result suggests that the case with domain 40 m × 20 m should be sufficient for the injection tests at the well field.

Description: Decomposition analysis of water footprint changes in a water-limited river basin: a case study of the Haihe River Basin, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 14591-14615, 2013 Author(s): Y. Zhi, Z. F. Yang, and X. A. Yin Decomposition analysis of water footprint (WF) changes, or assessing the changes in WF and identifying the contributions of factors leading to the changes, is important to water resource management. However, conventional studies focus on WF from the perspective of administrative region rather than river basin. Decomposition analysis of WF changes from the perspective of the river basin is more scientific. To address this perspective, we built a framework in which the input–output (IO) model and the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) model for WF could be implemented in a river basin by computing IO data for the river basin with the Generating Regional IO Tables (GRIT) method. This framework is illustrated in the Haihe River Basin (HRB), which is a typical water-limited river basin. It shows that the total WF in the HRB increased from 4.3 × 10 10 m 3 in 2002 to 5.6 × 10 10 m 3 in 2007, and the agriculture sector makes the dominant contribution to the increase. Both the WF of domestic products (internal) and the WF of imported products (external) increased, and the proportion of external WF rose from 29.1% to 34.4%. The technological effect was the dominant contributor to offsetting the increase of WF; however, the growth of WF caused by the economic structural effect and the scale effect was greater, so the total WF increased. This study provides insights about water challenges in the HRB and proposes possible strategies for the future, and serves as a reference for WF management and policy making in other water-limited river basins.

Description: High-resolution monitoring of catchment nutrient response to the end of the 2011–2012 drought in England, captured by the demonstration test catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 15119-15165, 2013 Author(s): F. N. Outram, C. Lloyd, J. Jonczyk, C. McW. H. Benskin, F. Grant, S. R. Dorling, C. J. Steele, A. L. Collins, J. Freer, P. M. Haygarth, K. M. Hiscock, P. J. Johnes, and A. L. Lovett The Demonstration Test Catchments (DTC) project is a UK Government funded initiative to test the effectiveness of on-farm mitigation measures designed to reduce agricultural pollution without compromising farm productivity. Three distinct catchments in England have been chosen to test the efficacy of mitigation measures on working farms in small tributary sub-catchments equipped with continuous water quality monitoring stations. The Hampshire Avon in the south is a mixed livestock and arable farming catchment, the River Wensum in the east is a lowland catchment with predominantly arable farming and land use in the River Eden catchment in the north-west is predominantly livestock farming. One of the many strengths of the DTC as a national research platform is that it provides the ability to investigate catchment hydrology and biogeochemical response across different landscapes and geoclimatic characteristics, with a range of differing flow behaviours, geochemistries and nutrient chemistries. Although numerous authors present studies of individual catchment responses to storms, no studies exist of multiple catchment responses to the same rainfall event captured with in situ high-resolution nutrient monitoring at a national scale. This paper brings together findings from all three DTC research groups to compare the response of the catchments to a major storm event in April 2012. This was one of the first weather fronts to track across the country following a prolonged drought period affecting much of the UK through 2011–2012, marking an unusual meteorological transition when a rapid shift from drought to flood risk occurred. The effects of the weather front on discharge and water chemistry parameters, including nitrogen species (NO 3 -N and NH 4 -N) and phosphorus fractions (total P (TP) and total reactive P (TRP)), measured at a half-hourly time step are examined. When considered in the context of one hydrological year, flow and concentration duration curves reveal that the weather fronts resulted in extreme flow, nitrate and TP concentrations in all three catchments but with distinct differences in both hydrographs and chemographs. Hysteresis loops constructed from high resolution data are used to highlight an array of potential pollutant sources and delivery pathways. In the Hampshire Avon DTC, transport was dominated by sub-surface processes, where phosphorus, largely in the soluble form, was found to be transport-limited. In the Wensum DTC, transport was largely dominated by rapid sub-surface movement due to the presence of under-drainage, which mobilised large quantities of nitrate during the storm. In the Eden DTC, transport was found to be initially dominated by surface runoff, which switched to subsurface delivery on the falling limb of the hydrograph, with the surface delivery transporting large amounts of particulate phosphorus to the river, with a transport-limited response. The lack of exhaustion of nutrient delivery in response to such extreme flow generation indicates the size of the nutrient pools stored in these catchments, and highlights the scale of the challenges faced by environmental managers when designing mitigation measures to reduce the flux of nutrients to UK river systems from diffuse agricultural sources.

Description: Climate and topographic controls on pasture production in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with scattered tree cover Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 15167-15217, 2013 Author(s): J. Lozano-Parra, M. P. Maneta, and S. Schnabel Natural grasses in semiarid rangelands constitute an effective protection against soil erosion and degradation, are a source of natural food for livestock and play a critical role in the hydrologic cycle by contributing to the uptake and transpiration of water. However, natural pastures are threatened by land abandonment and the consequent encroachment of shrubs and trees as well as by changing climatic conditions. In spite of their ecological and economic importance, the spatio-temporal variations of pasture production at the decadal to century scales over whole watersheds are poorly known. We used a physics-based, spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model applied to a 99.5 ha semiarid watershed in western Spain to investigate the sensitivity of pasture production to climate variability. The ecohydrologic model was run using a 300 yr long synthetic daily climate dataset generated using a stochastic weather generator. The data set reproduced the range of climatic variations observed under current climate. Results indicated that variation of pasture production largely depended on factors that also determined the availability of soil moisture such as the temporal distribution of precipitation, topography, and tree canopy cover. The latter is negatively related with production, reflecting the importance of rainfall and light interception, as well as water consumption by trees. Valley bottoms and flat areas in the lower parts of the catchment are characterized by higher pasture production. A quantitative assessment of the quality of the simulations showed that ecohydrologic models are a valuable tool to investigate long term (century scale) water and energy fluxes, as well as vegetation dynamics, in semiarid rangelands.

Description: Challenges in conditioning a stochastic geological model of a heterogeneous glacial aquifer to a comprehensive soft dataset Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 15219-15262, 2013 Author(s): J. Koch, X. He, K. H. Jensen, and J. C. Refsgaard In traditional hydrogeological investigations, one geological model is often used based on subjective interpretations and sparse data availability. This deterministic approach usually does not account for any uncertainties. Stochastic simulation methods address this problem and can capture the geological structure uncertainty. In this study the geostatistical software TProGS is utilized to simulate an ensemble of realizations for a binary (sand/clay) hydrofacies model in the Norsminde catchment, Denmark. TProGS can incorporate soft data, which represent the associated level of uncertainty. High density (20 m × 20 m × 2 m) airborne geophysical data (SkyTEM) and categorized borehole data are utilized to define the model of spatial variability and for soft conditioning the TProGS simulations. The category probabilities for the SkyTEM dataset are derived from a histogram probability matching method, where resistivity is paired with the corresponding lithology from the categorized borehole data. A novelty of this study is the incorporation of two distinct datasources into the stochastic modeling process that represents two extremes of the conditioning density spectrum; sparse borehole data and abundant SkyTEM data. The high density of spatially correlated SkyTEM data lead to very deterministic simulation results. This is caused by overconditioning and addressed by a work around utilizing a resampling (thinning) of the dataset. In the case of abundant conditioning data it is shown that TProGS is capable of reproducing non-stationary trends. The stochastic realizations are validated by five performance criteria: (1) sand proportion, (2) mean length, (3) geobody connectivity, (4) facies probability distribution and (5) facies probability – resistivity bias. As conclusion, a stochastically generated set of realizations soft conditioned to 200 m moving sampling of geophysical data performs most satisfying when balancing the five performance criteria and can be used in subsequent hydrogeological flow modeling to address the predictive uncertainty originated from the geological structure uncertainty.

Description: Effects of land-conversion in a biosphere–atmosphere model of Northern South America – Part 2: Case studies on the mechanisms of differential hydrometeorology Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 15337-15373, 2013 Author(s): R. G. Knox, M. Longo, A. L. S. Swann, K. Zhang, N. M. Levine, P. R. Moorcroft, and R. L. Bras A physical model of the terrestrial biosphere (Ecosystem Demography Model) is combined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) to investigate how land conversion in the Amazon and Northern South America have changed the hydrology of the region. Two numerical realizations of the structure and composition of terrestrial vegetation are used as boundary conditions in a simulation of the regional land surface and atmosphere. One realization seeks to capture the present day vegetation condition that includes human deforestation and land-conversion, the other is an estimate of the potential structure and composition of the region without human influence. Two focus areas, one in the Brazilian state of Pará, and one in the Bolivian Chaco, are selected to scrutinize the basis of differential hydrology and hydrometeorology manifested by the two scenarios. In both cases, deforestation led to increases in total surface albedo, driving decreases in net-radiation, boundary layer moist static energy and ultimately convective precipitation. In the case of the Bolivian Chaco, decreased precipitation was also a result of decreased advective moisture transport, indicating that differences in local hydrometeorology may manifest via teleconnections with the greater region.

Description: Effects of land-conversion in a biosphere–atmosphere model of Northern South America – Part 1: Regional differences in hydrometeorology Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 15295-15335, 2013 Author(s): R. G. Knox, M. Longo, A. L. S. Swann, K. Zhang, N. M. Levine, P. R. Moorcroft, and R. L. Bras This work investigates how landuse changes over northern South America, driven by human interventions, have affected the regional patterns of hydrology. Comparisons are made to scenarios where no human disturbance of the regional vegetation is assumed. A numerical model of the terrestrial biosphere (Ecosystem Demography Model 2 – ED2) is combined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System – BRAMS) to investigate how land conversion in the Amazon and Northern South America have changed the hydrology of the region. Two numerical realizations of the structure and composition of terrestrial vegetation are used as boundary conditions in a simulation of the regional land surface and atmosphere. One realization seeks to capture the present day vegetation condition that includes deforestation and land-conversion, the other is an estimate of the potential structure and composition of the region without human influence. Model output is assessed for consistent and significant pattern differences in hydrometeorology. Results show that South American land conversion has a consistent impact on the regional patterning of precipitation. Land-conversion was not associated with a significant bias in continental mean precipitation, but was associated with a negative bias in mean continental evaporation and a positive bias in continental runoff. A companion paper continues this analysis, with case studies that focus on specific areas that show significant differential hydrologic response.

Description: Comparison of parameters influencing the behavior of concentration of nitrates and phosphates during different extreme rainfall-runoff events in small watersheds Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12105-12151, 2013 Author(s): J. Moravcová, T. Pavlíček, P. Ondr, M. Koupilová, and T. Kvítek The behavior of solute concentrations during storm events is completely different from their behaviour under normal conditions, and very often results in hysteresis. This study aim is to explore the relationship between the biogeochemical and hydrological parameters describing natural conditions and the reciprocal interactions between changes in concentration of selected indicators of water quality in water and the discharge dynamics during different types of extreme rainfall-runoff events in the Jenínský stream and the Kopaninský stream catchment (Czech Republic). The relationship between concentrations and runoffs is explained by concentration-discharge hysteretic loops. As the statistical method used for cross analyzing the impact of the parameters there was chosen the RDA analysis. The relationships between the particular parameters were examined separately by conditions of spring snow melt and summer storm events. The results than confirmed the very strong relationship between parameters describing water quality and percentage of stable parts of the catchment and also of infiltration vulnerable sites.

Description: Sorption and transformation of the reactive tracers resazurin and resorufin in natural river sediments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12187-12216, 2013 Author(s): D. Lemke, R. González-Pinzón, Z. Liao, T. Wöhling, K. Osenbrück, R. Haggerty, and O. A. Cirpka Resazurin (Raz) and its reaction product resorufin (Rru) have increasingly been used as reactive tracers to quantify metabolic activity and hyporheic exchange in streams. Previous works have indicated that these compounds undergo sorption in stream sediments. We present a series of laboratory column and batch experiments on Raz and Rru transport, sorption, and transformation within sediments with different physicochemical properties under neutral and alkaline conditions. The data of the column experiments were fitted by a model accounting for physical transport, equilibrium and kinetic sorption, and three first-order reactions. The most likely parameters and their uncertainty were determined by a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo approach. Linear and non-linear sorption isotherms of both compounds were obtained by batch experiments. We found that kinetic sorption dominates sorption of both Raz and Rru, with characteristic timescales of sorption in the order of 〉 80 min. The linear sorption models for both Raz and Rru appeared adequate for concentrations that are typically applied in field-tracer tests. The supposed two-site sorption model helps interpreting transient tracer tests using the Raz–Rru system.

Description: Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12217-12254, 2013 Author(s): G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, L. Garrote, A. Iglesias, and J. Vogt Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three main different geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa. Additionally, the western part of the Zambezi basin, the south-eastern border of the Congo basin and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape should also be included in this category. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disasters information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are a valuable contribution to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and should contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

Description: Climate change, vegetation restoration and engineering as a 1:2:1 explanation for reduction of suspended sediment in southwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12417-12451, 2013 Author(s): X. Ma, X. Lu, M. van Noordwijk, J. Xu, and J. Li Suspended sediment transport in rivers is controlled by terrain, climate and human activities. These variables affect hillslope and riverbank erosion at the source, transport velocities and sedimentation opportunities in the river channel, and entrapment in reservoirs. The relative importance of those factors varies with context but correct attribution is important for policy debates. We analyzed data from the Kejie watershed in the upper Salween, where a combination of land cover change (reforestation, soil and water conservation measures) and river channel engineering (sand mining and check dam construction) interact with a changing climate. Long-term records (1971–2010) of river flow and suspended sediment loads were combined with five land use maps from 1974, 1991, 2001, 2006 and 2009. Average annual sediment yield decreased from 13.7 t ha −1 yr −1 to 8.3 t ha −1 yr −1 between the 1971–1985 and 1986–2010. A distributed hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) was set up to simulate the sediment sourcing and transport process. By recombining land use and climate data for the two periods in model scenarios, the contribution of these two factors could be assessed with engineering effects derived from residual measured minus modeled transport. Overall 46% of the decrease was due to from land use and land cover change, 25% to climate change to a milder rainfall regime, 25% to engineering measures, and 4% to simulation bias. Mean annual suspended sediment yield decreased exponentially with the increase of forest cover. We discuss the implications for future soil and water conservation initiatives in China.

Description: Validation of the operational MSG-SEVIRI snow cover product over Austria Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12153-12185, 2013 Author(s): S. Surer, J. Parajka, and Z. Akyurek The objective of this study is to evaluate the mapping accuracy of the MSG-SEVIRI operational snow cover product over Austria. The SEVIRI instrument is on board of the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. The snow cover product provides 32 images per day with a relatively low spatial resolution of 5 km over Austria. The mapping accuracy is examined at 178 stations with daily snow depth observations and compared with the daily MODIS combined (Terra + Aqua) snow cover product in the period April 2008–June 2012. The results show that the 15 min temporal sampling allows a significant reduction of clouds in the snow cover product. The mean annual cloud coverage is less than 30% in Austria, as compared to 52% for the combined MODIS product. The mapping accuracy for cloud-free days is 89% as compared to 94% for MODIS. The largest mapping errors are found in regions with large topographical variability. The errors are noticeably larger at stations with elevations that differ much from those of the mean MSG-SEVIRI pixel elevations. The median of mapping accuracy for stations with absolute elevation difference less than 50 m and more than 500 m is 98.9% and 78.2%, respectively. A comparison between the MSG-SEVIRI and MODIS products indicates an 83% overall agreement. The largest disagreements are found in alpine valleys and flatland areas in the spring and winter months, respectively.

Description: Simulation of rock salt dissolution and its impact on land subsidence Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12255-12291, 2013 Author(s): A. Zidane, E. Zechner, P. Huggenberger, and A. Younes Extensive land subsidence can occur due to subsurface dissolution of evaporites such as halite and gypsum. This paper explores techniques to simulate the salt dissolution forming an intrastratal karst, which is embedded in a sequence of carbonates, marls, anhydrite and gypsum. A numerical model is developed to simulate laminar flow in reactive fractures. The numerical model is based on the laminar steady state Stokes flow equation, and the advection dispersion transport equation coupled with the dissolution equation. The flow equation is solved using the nonconforming Crouzeix–Raviart (CR) finite element approximation for the Stokes equation. For the transport equation, a combination between Discontinuous Galerkin Method and Multipoint Flux Approximation Method is proposed. The numerical effect of the dissolution is considered by using a dynamic mesh variation that increases the size of the mesh based on the amount of dissolved salt. The numerical method is applied to a 2-D geological cross section representing a Horst and Graben structure in the Tabular Jura of north-western Switzerland. It simulates salt dissolution within the geological section and predicts the amount of vertical dissolution as an indicator of subsidence that could occur. Simulation results showed that the highest dissolution amount is observed near the normal fault zones, and therefore the highest subsidence rates are expected above fault zones.

Description: Challenges in modeling ice floods on the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12293-12329, 2013 Author(s): C. Fu, I. Popescu, C. Wang, A. E. Mynett, and F. Zhang During winter the Yellow River in China is frequently subjected to ice flood disasters. Possible dike-breaking due to ice floods poses a serious threat to the part of the region located along the river, in particular the Ning-Meng reach (including Ningxia Hui and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region). Due to its special geographical location and river flow direction, the ice dams and jams lead to dike-breaking and overtopping on the embankment, which has resulted in huge casualties and property losses throughout history. Therefore, there is a growing need to develop capability in forecasting and analysing river ice floods. Research into ice floods along the river is taking place at the Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC). A numerical model is one of the essential parts of the current research going on at the YRCC, which can be used to supplement the inadequacies in the field and lab studies which are being carried out to help understand the physical processes of river ice on the Yellow River. Based on the available data about the Ning-Meng reach of the Yellow River, the YRCC River Ice Dynamic Model (YRIDM) has been tested for capabilities to conduct ice flood forecasting. The YRIDM can be applied to simulate water level, discharge, water temperature, and ice cover thickness under unsteady-state conditions. Different scenarios were designed to explore the model uncertainty for two bounds (5% and 95%) and probability distribution. The YRIDM is an unsteady-state flow model that can show the basic regular pattern of ice floods; hence it can be used as an important tool to support decision-making. The recommendation is that data and research should be continued in order to support the model and to measure improvements.

Description: Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12373-12416, 2013 Author(s): S. Harrigan, C. Murphy, J. Hall, R. L. Wilby, and J. Sweeney This paper revisits a widely cited study of the Boyne catchment in the east of Ireland that attributed a change in streamflow during the mid-1970s to increased precipitation linked to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Using the method of Multiple Working Hypotheses we explore a wider set of potential drivers of hydrological change. Rainfall-runoff models are employed to reconstruct streamflow to isolate the effect of climate taking account of both model structure and parameter uncertainty. The Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Pettitt change point test are applied to explore signatures of change. Different to earlier work, arterial drainage and the simultaneous onset of field drainage in the 1970s and early 1980s were inferred to be the predominant driver of change within the Boyne. There is evidence that a change in precipitation regime is also present, albeit to a lesser extent. This new explanation posits that multiple drivers acting simultaneously were responsible for the observed change. This work highlights the utility of the Multiple Working Hypotheses framework in moving towards more rigorous attribution, which is an important part of managing unfolding impacts on hydrological systems.

Description: Forecasting terrestrial water storage changes in the Amazon Basin using Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12453-12483, 2013 Author(s): C. de Linage, J. S. Famiglietti, and J. T. Randerson Floods and droughts frequently affect the Amazon River basin, impacting transportation, river navigation, agriculture, and ecosystem processes within several South American countries. Here we examined how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) influence interannual variability of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) in different regions within the Amazon basin and propose a modeling framework for inter-seasonal flood and drought forecasting. Three simple statistical models forced by a linear combination of lagged spatial averages of central Pacific (Niño 4 index) and tropical North Atlantic (TNAI index) SSTs were calibrated against a decade-long record of 3°, monthly TWSAs observed by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Niño 4 was the primary external forcing in the northeastern region of the Amazon basin whereas TNAI was dominant in central and western regions. A combined model using the two indices improved the fit significantly ( p 〈 0.05) for at least 64% of the grid cells within the basin, compared to models forced solely with Niño 4 or TNAI. The combined model explained 66% of the observed variance in the northeastern region, 39% in the central and western regions, and 43% for the Amazon basin as a whole with a 3 month lead time between the SST indices and TWSAs. Model performance varied seasonally: it was higher than average during the rainfall wet season in the northeastern Amazon and during the dry season in the central and western regions. The predictive capability of the combined model was degraded with increasing lead times. Degradation was smaller in the northeastern Amazon (where 49% of the variance was explained using an 8 month lead time vs. 69% for a 1 month lead time) compared to the central and western Amazon (where 22% of the variance was explained at 8 months vs. 43% at 1 month). These relationships may enable the development of an early warning system for flood and drought risk. This work also strengthens our understanding of the mechanisms regulating interannual variability in Amazon fires, as water storage deficits may subsequently lead to decreases in transpiration and atmospheric water vapor that cause more severe fire weather.

Description: Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12331-12371, 2013 Author(s): A. Casanueva, C. Rodríguez-Puebla, M. D. Frías, and N. González-Reviriego A growing interest in extreme precipitation has spread through the scientific community due to the effects of global climate change on the hydrological cycle and their threat on natural systems more than averaged climatic values. Understanding the variability of hydrological indices and their association to atmospheric processes could help to project the frequency and severity of extremes. This paper evaluates the trend of three precipitation extremes: the number of consecutive dry/wet days (CDD/CWD) and the quotient of the precipitation in days where daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of the reference period and the total amount of precipitation (or contribution of very wet days, R95pTOT). The aim of this study is twofold. First, extreme indicators are compared against accumulated precipitation (RR) over Europe in terms of trends using non-parametric approaches. Second, we analyse the geographic opposite trends found over different parts of Europe by considering their relationships with large-scale processes, using different teleconnection patterns. The study is accomplished for the four seasons using the gridded E-OBS dataset developed within the EU ENSEMBLES project. Different patterns of variability were found for CWD and CDD in winter and summer, with north-south and east–west configurations, respectively. We consider physical factors to understand the extremes variability by linking large-scale processes and hydrological extremes. Opposite association with the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter and summer, and the relationships with the Scandinavian, East Atlantic patterns and El Niño/Southern Oscillation events in spring and autumn gave insight into the trend differences. Significant relationships were found between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and very extreme precipitation (R95pTOT) during the whole year. The largest extreme anomalies were analysed by composite maps using atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature. The association of extreme precipitation indices and large-scale variables found in this work could pave the way of new possibilities for the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques.

Description: Re-suspension of bed sediment in a small stream – results from two flushing experiments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12077-12104, 2013 Author(s): A. Eder, M. Exner-Kittridge, P. Strauss, and G. Blöschl Streams draining small watersheds often exhibit multiple peaking sedigraphs associated with single peaking hydrographs. The process reasons of the multiple sediment peaks are not fully understood but they may be related to the activation of different sediment sources such as the streambed itself where deposited sediments from previous events may be available for resuspension. To understand resuspension of stream bed sediments at the reach scale we artificially flooded the small stream of the HOAL Petzenkirchen catchment in Austria by pumping sediment-free water into the stream. Two short floods were produced and flow, sediment and bromide concentrations were measured at three sites with high temporal resolution. Hydrologically, the two flood events were almost identical. The peak flows decreased from 57 to 7.9 L s −1 and the flow volumes decreased from 17 to 11.3 m 3 along the 590 m reach of the stream. However, a considerably smaller sediment load was resuspended and transported during the second flood due to depletion of stream bed sediments. The exception was the middle section of the stream where more sediment was transported during the second flood event which can be explained by differences between flow velocity and wave celerity and the resulting displacement of sediments within the stream. The results indicate that the first peak of the sedigraphs of natural events in this stream is indeed caused by the resuspension of streambed sediments, accounting for up to six percent of the total sediment load depending on total flow volume.

Description: When does higher spatial resolution rainfall information improve streamflow simulation? An evaluation on 3620 flood events Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12485-12536, 2013 Author(s): F. Lobligeois, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, P. Tabary, and C. Loumagne Precipitation is the key factor controlling the high-frequency hydrological response in catchments, and streamflow simulation is thus dependent on the way rainfall is represented in the hydrological model. A characteristic that distinguishes distributed from lumped models is the ability to explicitly represent the spatial variability of precipitation. Although the literature on this topic is abundant, the results are contrasted and sometimes contradictory. This paper investigates the impact of spatial rainfall on runoff generation to better understand the conditions where higher-resolution rainfall information improves streamflow simulations. In this study, we used the rainfall reanalysis developed by Météo-France over the whole French territory at 1 km and 1 h resolution over a 10 yr period. A hydrological model was applied in the lumped mode (a single spatial unit) and in the semi-distributed mode using three unit sizes of sub-catchments. The model was evaluated against observed streamflow data using split-sample tests on a large set of 181 French catchments representing a variety of size and climate conditions. The results were analyzed by catchment classes and types of rainfall events based on the spatial variability of precipitation. The evaluation clearly showed different behaviors. The lumped model performed as well as the semi-distributed model in western France where catchments are under oceanic climate conditions with quite spatially uniform precipitation fields. In contrast, higher resolution in precipitation inputs significantly improved the simulated streamflow dynamics and accuracy in southern France (Cévennes and Mediterranean regions) for catchments in which precipitation fields were identified to be highly variable in space. In all regions, natural variability allows for contradictory examples to be found, showing that analyzing a large number of events over varied catchments is warranted.

Description: Analysis of an extreme rainfall-runoff event at the Landscape Evolution Observatory by means of a three-dimensional physically-based hydrologic model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12615-12641, 2013 Author(s): G.-Y. Niu, D. Pasetto, C. Scudeler, C. Paniconi, M. Putti, and P. A. Troch We present a detailed analysis, by means of a three-dimensional physically-based hydrological model, of the first experiment conducted at the Biosphere 2 Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO). The experiment was driven by an intense rainfall event and produced a hydrological response characterized predominantly by water outflow along the lower lateral boundary (seepage face) of LEO, together with overland flow that began 15 h after the start of rainfall and caused erosion of the superficial soil and formation of a small channel. The analysis is designed to test the null hypothesis that the soil is hydraulically homogenous, and an alternative hypothesis that the soil has developed some hydraulic heterogeneity in the downstream direction due to saturated soil compaction near the seepage face. More than 20 000 sensitivity simulations were run in a systematic search for optimal parameters to reproduce measurements of seepage face outflow and hillslope water storage. We varied the saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sat ) of the seepage face (18 values), K sat in the rest of the LEO soil (30 values), and soil porosity (21 values), and we considered two values of the pore size distribution parameter ( n ) in the water retention characteristics, obtained from a particle size distribution analysis and from laboratory experiments on LEO soil samples. For both n values, the best simulations under the heterogeneous soil hypothesis produced smaller errors than the best runs under the null hypothesis. Moreover the heterogeneous runs yielded a higher probability of best realizations than the homogenous runs. These results support the hypothesis of localized incipient heterogeneity of the LEO soil.

Description: Landslide susceptibility from mathematical model in Sarno area Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12643-12662, 2013 Author(s): G. Capparelli and P. P. Versace Rainfall is accepted as a major precursor for many types of slope movements (rapid, shallow soil slips and deeper landslides) and the technical literature is rich in examples of study cases and analysis models, related to landslides induced by rainfall. In general, the developed model can be regrouped in two categories: hydrological and complete. The first ones involve simple empirical relationships linking antecedent precipitation to the time that the landslide occurs; the latter consist of more complex expressions that take several components into account, including specific site conditions, mechanical, hydraulic and physical soil properties, local seepage conditions, and the contribution of these to soil strength. In this study, the analysis was carried out by using a model belonging to the second category for a landslide-prone area in Campania region (Southern Italy), were disastrous mud-flows occurred on 5 May 1998. In details, the model named SUSHI (Saturated Unsaturated Simulation for Hillslope Instability) was used and the obtained results made possible to better define the triggering conditions and differentiate the scenarios leading to instability of those slopes.

Description: Does consideration of water routing affect simulated water and carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12537-12571, 2013 Author(s): G. Tang, E. M. Schneiderman, L. E. Band, T. Hwang, D. C. Pierson, S. M. Pradhanang, and M. S. Zion The cycling of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is closely coupled with the cycling of water. An important mechanism connecting ecological and hydrological processes in terrestrial ecosystems is lateral flow of water along landscapes. Few studies, however, have examined explicitly how consideration of water routing affects simulated water and carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. The objective of this study is to explore how consideration of water routing in a process-based hydroecological model affects simulated water and carbon dynamics. To achieve that end, we rasterized the regional hydroecological simulation systems (RHESSys) and employed the rasterized RHESSys (R-RHESSys) in a forested watershed. We performed and compared two contrasting simulations, one with and another without water routing. We found that R-RHESSys is able to correctly simulate major hydrological and ecological variables regardless of whether water routing is considered. When water routing was neglected, however, soil water table depth and saturation deficit were simulated to be smaller and spatially more homogeneous. As a result, evaporation, forest productivity and soil heterotrophic respiration also were simulated to be spatially more homogeneous compared to simulation with water routing. When averaged for the entire watershed, however, differences in simulated water and carbon fluxes are not significant between the two simulations. Overall, the study demonstrated that consideration of water routing enabled R-RHESSys to better capture our preconception of the spatial patterns of water table depth and saturation deficit across the watershed. Because the spatial pattern of soil moisture is fundamental to water efflux from land to the atmosphere, forest productivity and soil microbial activity, ecosystem and carbon cycle models, therefore, need to explicitly represent water routing in order to accurately quantify the magnitudes and patterns of water and carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.