ALBERT

Description: Imperfect scaling in distributions of radar-derived rainfall fields Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11385-11422, 2013 Author(s): M. J. van den Berg, L. Delobbe, and N. E. C. Verhoest Fine scale rainfall observations for modeling exercises are often not available, but rather coarser data derived from a variety of sources are used. Effectively using these data sources in models often requires the probability distribution of the data at the applicable scale. Although numerous models for scaling distributions exist, these are often based on theoretical developments, rather than on data. In this study, we develop a model based on the α-stable distribution of rainfall fields, and tested on 5 min radar data from a Belgian weather radar. We use these data to estimate functions that describe parameters of the distribution over various scales. Moreover, we study how the mean of the distribution and the intermittency change with scale, and validate and design functions to describe the shape parameter of the distribution. This information was combined into an effective model of the distribution. Finally, the model was fitted to data from numerous storms, and the resulting parameters were compared to investigate the change in scaling behavior through time.

Description: Spatially resolved information on karst conduit flow from in-cave dye-tracing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11311-11335, 2013 Author(s): U. Lauber, W. Ufrecht, and N. Goldscheider Artificial tracers are powerful tools to investigate karst systems. Tracers are commonly injected into sinking streams or dolines, while springs serve as monitoring sites. The obtained flow and transport parameters represent mixed information from the vadose, epiphreatic and phreatic zones, i.e., the aquifer remains a black box. Accessible active caves constitute valuable but underexploited natural laboratories to gain detailed insights into the hydrologic functioning of the aquifer. Two multi-tracer tests in the catchment of a major karst spring (Blautopf, Germany) with injections and monitoring in two associated water caves aimed at obtaining spatially and temporally resolved information on groundwater flow in different compartments of the system. Two tracers were injected in the caves to characterize the hydraulic connections between them and with the spring. Two injections at the land surface, far from the spring, aimed at resolving the aquifer's internal drainage structure. Tracer breakthrough curves were monitored by field fluorimeters in caves and at the spring. Results demonstrate the dendritic drainage structure of the aquifer. It was possible to obtain relevant flow and transport parameters for different sections of this system. The highest mean flow velocities (275 m h −1 ) were observed in the near-spring epiphreatic section (open-channel flow), while velocities in the phreatic zone (pressurized flow) were one order of magnitude lower. Determined conduit water volumes confirm results of water balances and hydrograph analyses. In conclusion, experiments and monitoring in caves can deliver spatially resolved information on karst aquifer heterogeneity and dynamics that cannot be obtained by traditional investigative methods.

Description: On the lack of robustness of hydrologic models regarding water balance simulation – a diagnostic approach on 20 mountainous catchments using three models of increasing complexity Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11337-11383, 2013 Author(s): L. Coron, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, M. Bourqui, and F. Hendrickx This paper investigates the robustness of rainfall–runoff models when their parameters are transferred in time. More specifically, we studied their ability to simulate water balance on periods with different hydroclimatic characteristics. The testing procedure consisted in a series of parameter transfers between 10-yr periods and the systematic analysis of mean-volume errors. This procedure was applied to three conceptual models of different structural complexity over 20 mountainous catchments in southern France. The results showed that robustness problems are common. Errors on 10-yr-mean flows were significant for all three models and calibration periods, even when the entire record was used for calibration. Various graphical and numerical tools were used to show strong similarities between the shapes of mean flow biases calculated on a 10-yr-long sliding window when various parameter sets are used. Unexpected behavioural similarities were observed between the three models tested, considering their large differences in structural complexity. While the actual causes for robustness problems in these models remain unclear, this work stresses the limited transferability in time of the water balance adjustments made through parameter optimization. Although absolute differences between simulations obtained with different calibrated parameter sets were sometimes substantial, relative differences in simulated mean flows between time periods remained similar regardless of the calibrated parameter sets.

Description: Antecedent flow conditions and nitrate concentrations in the Mississippi River Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11451-11484, 2013 Author(s): J. C. Murphy, R. M. Hirsch, and L. A. Sprague The influence of antecedent flow conditions on nitrate concentrations was explored at eight sites in the Mississippi River Basin, USA. Antecedent moisture conditions have been shown to influence nutrient export from small, relatively homogenous basins, but this influence has not been observed at a regional or continental scale. Antecedent flow conditions were quantified as the ratio between the mean daily flow of the previous year and the mean daily flow from the period of record ( Q ratio), and the Q ratio was statistically related to nitrate anomalies (the unexplained variability in nitrate concentration after filtering out season, long-term trend, and contemporaneous flow effects) at each site. Nitrate anomaly and Q ratio were negatively related at three of the four major tributary sites and upstream in the Mississippi River, indicating that when the previous year was drier than average, at these sites, nitrate concentrations were higher than expected. The strength of these relationships increased when data were subdivided by contemporaneous flow conditions. Five of the eight sites had significant negative relationships ( p ≤ 0.05) at high or moderately high contemporaneous flows, suggesting nitrate that accumulates in these basins during a drought is flushed during subsequent storm events. At half of the sites, when flow during the previous year was 50% drier than average, nitrate concentration can be from 9 and 27% higher than nitrate concentrations that follow a year with average daily flow. Conversely, nitrate concentration can be from 8 and 21% lower than expected when the previous year was 50% wetter than average. These relationships between nitrate concentration and Q ratio serve as the basis for future studies that can better define specific hydrologic processes occurring during and after a drought, which influence nitrate concentration, such as the duration or magnitude of low flows, and the timing of low and high flows.

Description: Tidally induced velocity variations of the Beardmore Glacier, Antarctica, and their representation in satellite measurements of ice velocity The Cryosphere, 7, 1375-1384, 2013 Author(s): O. J. Marsh, W. Rack, D. Floricioiu, N. R. Golledge, and W. Lawson Ocean tides close to the grounding line of outlet glaciers around Antarctica have been shown to directly influence ice velocity, both linearly and non-linearly. These fluctuations can be significant and have the potential to affect satellite measurements of ice discharge, which assume displacement between satellite passes to be consistent and representative of annual means. Satellite observations of horizontal velocity variation in the grounding zone are also contaminated by vertical tidal effects, the importance of which is highlighted here in speckle tracking measurements. Eight TerraSAR-X scenes from the grounding zone of the Beardmore Glacier are analysed in conjunction with GPS measurements to determine short-term and decadal trends in ice velocity. Diurnal tides produce horizontal velocity fluctuations of 〉50% on the ice shelf, recorded in the GPS data 4 km downstream of the grounding line. This variability decreases rapidly to 〈5% only 15 km upstream of the grounding line. Daily fluctuations are smoothed to 〈1% in the 11-day repeat pass TerraSAR-X imagery, but fortnightly variations over this period are still visible and show that satellite-velocity measurements can be affected by tides over longer periods. The measured tidal displacement observed in radar look direction over floating ice also allows the grounding line to be identified, using differential speckle tracking where phase information cannot be easily unwrapped.

Description: Contribution of snow and glacier melt to discharge for highly glacierised catchments in Norway Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11485-11517, 2013 Author(s): M. Engelhardt, T. V. Schuler, and L. M. Andreassen Glacierised catchments significantly alter the streamflow regime due to snow and glacier meltwater contribution to discharge. In this study, we modelled the mass balance and discharge rates for three highly glacierised catchments (〉50% glacier cover) in western Norway over the period 1961–2012. The spatial pattern of the catchments follows a gradient in climate continentality from west to east. The model uses gridded temperature and precipitation values from seNorge ( http://senorge.no ) as input which are available at a daily resolution. It accounts for accumulation of snow, transformation of snow to firn and ice, evaporation and melt. The model was calibrated for each catchment based on measurements of seasonal glacier mass-balances and daily discharge rates. For validation, daily melt rates were compared with measurements from sonic rangers located in the ablation zones of two of the glaciers and an uncertainty analysis was performed for the third catchment. The discharge contributions from snowmelt, glacier melt and rain were analysed with respect to spatial variations and temporal evolution. The model simulations reveal an increase of the relative contribution from glacier melt for the three catchments from less than 10% in the early 1990s to 15–30% in the late 2000s. The decline in precipitation by 10–20% in the same period was therefore overcompensated resulting in an increase of the annual discharge by 5–20%. Annual discharge sums and annual glacier melt are strongest correlated with annual and winter precipitation at the most maritime glacier and, with increased climate continentality, variations in both glacier melt contribution and annual discharge are becoming stronger correlated with variations in summer temperatures.

Description: Bias correction can modify climate model-simulated precipitation changes without adverse affect on the ensemble mean Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11585-11611, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer and D. W. Pierce When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated trends. This has important implications when the precipitation will be used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. We use daily precipitation output from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) over the conterminous United States interpolated to a common 1° grid, and gridded observations aggregated to the same scale, to compare precipitation differences before and after quantile mapping bias correction. The change in seasonal mean (winter, DJF, and summer, JJA) precipitation between different 30-yr historical periods is compared to examine (1) the consensus among GCMs as to whether the bias correction tends to amplify or diminish their simulated precipitation trends, and (2) whether the modification of the change in precipitation tends to improve or degrade the correspondence to observed changes in precipitation for the same periods. In some cases, for a particular GCM, the trend modification can be as large as the original simulated change, though the areas where this occurs varies among GCMs so the ensemble median shows smaller trend modification. In specific locations and seasons the trend modification by quantile mapping improves correspondence with observed trends, and in others it degrades it. In the majority of the domain the ensemble median is for little effect on the correspondence of simulated precipitation trends with observed. This highlights the need to use an ensemble of GCMs rather than relying on a small number of models to estimate impacts.

Description: Snow on the Ross Ice Shelf: comparison of reanalyses and observations from automatic weather stations The Cryosphere, 7, 1399-1410, 2013 Author(s): L. Cohen and S. Dean Snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWS) around the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), Antarctica, are used to provide a new set of ground-based observations which are compared to precipitation from the ECMWF ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-2 datasets. The high temporal resolution of the AWS snow accumulation measurements allow for an event-based comparison of reanalyses precipitation to the in situ observations. Snow accumulation records from nine AWS provide multiple years of accumulation data between 2008 and 2012 over a relatively large, homogeneous region of Antarctica, and also provide the basis for a statistical evaluation of accumulation and precipitation events. The complex effects of wind on snow accumulation (which can both limit and enhance accumulation) complicate the use of the accumulation measurements, but this analysis shows that they can provide a valuable source of ground-based observations for comparisons to modelled precipitation on synoptic timescales. The analysis shows that ERA-Interim reproduces more precipitation events than NCEP-2, and these events correspond to an average 8.2% more precipitation. Significant correlations between reanalyses and AWS event sizes are seen at several stations and show that ERA-Interim consistently produces larger precipitation events than NCEP-2.

Description: A general treatment of snow microstructure exemplified by an improved relation for thermal conductivity The Cryosphere, 7, 1473-1480, 2013 Author(s): H. Löwe, F. Riche, and M. Schneebeli Finding relevant microstructural parameters beyond density is a longstanding problem which hinders the formulation of accurate parameterizations of physical properties of snow. Towards a remedy, we address the effective thermal conductivity tensor of snow via anisotropic, second-order bounds. The bound provides an explicit expression for the thermal conductivity and predicts the relevance of a microstructural anisotropy parameter Q , which is given by an integral over the two-point correlation function and unambiguously defined for arbitrary snow structures. For validation we compiled a comprehensive data set of 167 snow samples. The set comprises individual samples of various snow types and entire time series of metamorphism experiments under isothermal and temperature gradient conditions. All samples were digitally reconstructed by micro-computed tomography to perform microstructure-based simulations of heat transport. The incorporation of anisotropy via Q considerably reduces the root mean square error over the usual density-based parameterization. The systematic quantification of anisotropy via the two-point correlation function suggests a generalizable route to incorporate microstructure into snowpack models. We indicate the inter-relation of the conductivity to other properties and outline a potential impact of Q on dielectric constant, permeability and adsorption rate of diffusing species in the pore space.

Description: Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains The Cryosphere, 7, 1527-1541, 2013 Author(s): S. Adhikari and S. J. Marshall Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging from simple shear deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed) result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year). Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. Although similar studies on other glaciers are essential to generalize such findings, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modeling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low and where mass balance changes dominate over ice dynamics in determining glacier geometry.

Description: Meteorological drivers of ablation processes on a cold glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile The Cryosphere, 7, 1513-1526, 2013 Author(s): S. MacDonell, C. Kinnard, T. Mölg, L. Nicholson, and J. Abermann Meteorological and surface change measurements collected during a 2.5 yr period are used to calculate surface mass and energy balances at 5324 m a.s.l. on Guanaco Glacier, a cold-based glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile. Meteorological conditions are marked by extremely low vapour pressures (annual mean of 1.1 hPa), strong winds (annual mean of 10 m s −1 ), shortwave radiation receipt persistently close to the theoretical site maximum during cloud-free days (mean annual 295 W m −2 ; summer hourly maximum 1354 W m −2 ) and low precipitation rates (mean annual 45 mm w.e.). Snowfall occurs sporadically throughout the year and is related to frontal events in the winter and convective storms during the summer months. Net shortwave radiation provides the greatest source of energy to the glacier surface, and net longwave radiation dominates energy losses. The turbulent latent heat flux is always negative, which means that the surface is always losing mass via sublimation, which is the main form of ablation at the site. Sublimation rates are most strongly correlated with net shortwave radiation, incoming shortwave radiation, albedo and vapour pressure. Low glacier surface temperatures restrict melting for much of the period, however episodic melting occurs during the austral summer, when warm, humid, calm and high pressure conditions restrict sublimation and make more energy available for melting. Low accumulation (131 mm w.e. over the period) and relatively high ablation (1435 mm w.e.) means that mass change over the period was negative (−1304 mm w.e.), which continued the negative trend recorded in the region over the last few decades.

Description: Antarctic ice-mass balance 2003 to 2012: regional reanalysis of GRACE satellite gravimetry measurements with improved estimate of glacial-isostatic adjustment based on GPS uplift rates The Cryosphere, 7, 1499-1512, 2013 Author(s): I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann We present regional-scale mass balances for 25 drainage basins of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) from satellite observations of the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for time period January 2003 to September 2012. Satellite gravimetry estimates of the AIS mass balance are strongly influenced by mass movement in the Earth interior caused by ice advance and retreat during the last glacial cycle. Here, we develop an improved glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) estimate for Antarctica using newly available GPS uplift rates, allowing us to more accurately separate GIA-induced trends in the GRACE gravity fields from those caused by current imbalances of the AIS. Our revised GIA estimate is considerably lower than previous predictions, yielding an estimate of apparent mass change of 53 ± 18 Gt yr −1 . Therefore, our AIS mass balance of −114 ± 23 Gt yr −1 is less negative than previous GRACE estimates. The northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector exhibit the largest mass loss (−26 ± 3 Gt yr −1 and −127 ± 7 Gt yr −1 , respectively). In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits a slightly positive mass balance (26 ± 13 Gt yr −1 ), which is, however, mostly the consequence of compensating mass anomalies in Dronning Maud and Enderby Land (positive) and Wilkes and George V Land (negative) due to interannual accumulation variations. In total, 6% of the area constitutes about half the AIS imbalance, contributing 151 ± 7 Gt yr −1 (ca. 0.4 mm yr −1 ) to global mean sea-level change. Most of this imbalance is caused by ice-dynamic speed-up expected to prevail in the near future.

Description: The effect of training image and secondary data integration with multiple-point geostatistics in groundwater modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11829-11860, 2013 Author(s): X. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, and K. H. Jensen Multiple-point geostatistic simulation (MPS) has recently become popular in stochastic hydrogeology, primarily because of its capability to derive multivariate distributions from the training image (TI). However, its application in three dimensional simulations has been constrained by the difficulty of constructing 3-D TI. The object-based TiGenerator may be a useful tool in this regard; yet the sensitivity of model predictions to the training image has not been documented. Another issue in MPS is the integration of multiple geophysical data. The best way to retrieve and incorporate information from high resolution geophysical data is still under discussion. This work shows that TI from TiGenerator delivers acceptable results when used for groundwater modeling, although the TI directly converted from high resolution geophysical data leads to better simulation. The model results also indicate that soft conditioning in MPS is a convenient and efficient way of integrating secondary data such as 3-D airborne electromagnetic data, but over conditioning has to be avoided.

Description: Multi-decadal river flows variations in France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11861-11900, 2013 Author(s): J. Boé and F. Habets In this article, multi-decadal variations in French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based on long observed series, it is shown that river flows in France generally exhibit large multi-decadal variations on the historical period, especially in spring. Differences of means between two 21 yr periods of the 20th century as large as 40% are indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring river flows variations are associated with variations in spring precipitation and temperature. These multi-decadal variations in precipitation are themselves found to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, more precisely by a multi-decadal oscillation in a sea level pressure dipole between western Europe and the East Atlantic. It is suggested that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the main mode of decadal variability in the North Atlantic/Europe sector, controls those variations in large-scale circulation and is therefore the main ultimate driver of multi-decadal variations in spring river flows. Multi-decadal variations in river flows in other seasons, and in particular summer, are also noted. As they are not associated with significant surface climate anomalies (i.e. temperature, precipitation) in summer, other mechanisms are investigated based on hydrological simulations. The impact of climate variations in spring on summer soil moisture, and the impact of soil moisture in summer on the runoff to precipitation ratio, could potentially play a role in multi-decadal summer river flows variations. The large amplitude of the multi-decadal variations in French river flows suggests that internal variability may play a very important role in the evolution of river flows during the next decades, potentially temporarily limiting, reversing or seriously aggravating the long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Description: Teleconnection analysis of runoff and soil moisture over the Pearl River basin in South China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11943-11982, 2013 Author(s): J. Niu, J. Chen, and B. Sivakumar This study explores the teleconnection of two climatic patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is used to simulate the daily hydrological processes over the basin for the study period 1952–2000, and then, using the simulation results, the time series of the monthly runoff and soil moisture anomalies for its ten sub-basins are aggregated. Wavelet analysis is performed to explore the variability properties of these time series at 49 timescales ranging from 2 months to 9 yr. Use of wavelet coherence and rank correlation method reveals that the dominant variabilities of the time series of runoff and soil moisture are basically correlated with IOD. The influences of ENSO on the terrestrial hydrological processes are mainly found in the eastern sub-basins. The teleconnections between climatic patterns and hydrological variability also serve as a reference basis for inferences on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events (e.g. floods and droughts).

Description: Hydrological functions of sinkholes and characteristics of point recharge in groundwater basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11423-11449, 2013 Author(s): N. Somaratne, K. Smettem, J. Lawson, K. Nguyen, and J. Frizenschaf Karstic limestone aquifers are hydrologically and hydrochemically extremely heterogeneous and point source recharge via sinkholes and fissures is a common feature. We studied three groundwater systems in karstic settings dominated by point source recharge in order to assess the relative contributions to total recharge from point sources using chloride and δ 18 O relations. Preferential groundwater flows were observed through an inter-connected network of highly conductive zones with groundwater mixing along flow paths. Measurements of salinity and chloride indicated that fresh water pockets exist at point recharge locations. A measurable fresh water plume develops only when a large quantity of surface water enters the aquifer as a point recharge source. The difference in chloride concentrations in diffuse and point recharge zones decreases as aquifer saturated thickness increases and the plumes become diluted through mixing. The chloride concentration in point recharge fluxes crossing the watertable plane can remain at or near surface runoff chloride concentrations, rather than in equilibrium with groundwater chloride. In such circumstances the conventional chloride mass balance method that assumes equilibrium of recharge water chloride with groundwater requires modification to include both point and diffuse recharge mechanisms.

Description: Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River Basin using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11559-11584, 2013 Author(s): X. Chen, Z. Hao, N. Devineni, and U. Lall A Hierarchal Bayesian model for forecasting regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead using exogenous climate variables for East Central China is presented. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multilevel structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multivariate normal distribution results in partial-pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include Receiver Operating Characteristic, Reduction of Error, Coefficient of Efficiency, Rank Probability Skill Scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies.

Description: Evidence of meltwater retention within the Greenland ice sheet The Cryosphere, 7, 1433-1445, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Rennermalm, L. C. Smith, V. W. Chu, J. E. Box, R. R. Forster, M. R. Van den Broeke, D. Van As, and S. E. Moustafa Greenland ice sheet mass losses have increased in recent decades with more than half of these attributed to surface meltwater runoff. However, the magnitudes of englacial storage, firn retention, internal refreezing and other hydrologic processes that delay or reduce true water export to the global ocean remain less understood, partly due to a scarcity of in situ measurements. Here, ice sheet surface meltwater runoff and proglacial river discharge between 2008 and 2010 near Kangerlussuaq, southwestern Greenland were used to establish sub- and englacial meltwater storage for a small ice sheet watershed (36–64 km 2 ). This watershed lacks significant potential meltwater storage in firn, surface lakes on the ice sheet and in the proglacial area, and receives limited proglacial precipitation. Thus, ice sheet surface runoff not accounted for by river discharge can reasonably be attributed to retention in sub- and englacial storage. Evidence for meltwater storage within the ice sheet includes (1) characteristic dampened daily river discharge amplitudes relative to ice sheet runoff; (2) three cold-season river discharge anomalies at times with limited ice sheet surface melt, demonstrating that meltwater may be retained up to 1–6 months; (3) annual ice sheet watershed runoff is not balanced by river discharge, and while near water budget closure is possible as much as 54% of melting season ice sheet runoff may not escape to downstream rivers; (4) even the large meltwater retention estimate (54%) is equivalent to less than 1% of the ice sheet volume, which suggests that storage in en- and subglacial cavities and till is plausible. While this study is the first to provide evidence for meltwater retention and delayed release within the Greenland ice sheet, more information is needed to establish how widespread this is along the Greenland ice sheet perimeter.

Description: A spatial bootstrap technique for parameter estimation of rainfall annual maxima distribution Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11755-11794, 2013 Author(s): F. Uboldi, A. N. Sulis, C. Lussana, M. Cislaghi, and M. Russo Estimation of extreme event distributions and depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves is achieved at any target site by repeated sampling among all available raingauge data in the surrounding area. The estimate is computed over a gridded domain in Northern Italy, using precipitation time series from 1929 to 2011, including data from historical analog stations and from the present-day automatic observational network. The presented local regionalisation naturally overcomes traditional station-point methods, with their demand of long historical series and their sensitivity to very rare events occurring at very few stations, possibly causing unrealistic spatial gradients in DDF relations. At the same time, the presented approach allows for spatial dependence, necessary in a geographical domain such as Lombardy, complex for both its topography and its climatology. The bootstrap technique enables evaluating uncertainty maps for all estimated parameters and for rainfall depths at assigned return periods.

Description: Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11643-11710, 2013 Author(s): R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno During the first Hymex campaign (5 September–6 November 2012) referred to as Special Observation Period (SOP-1), dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in Western Mediterranean, three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were activated: Liguria-Tuscany, North-Eastern Italy and Central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models has allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen the strict collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper, an overview of the Italian organization during the SOP-1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12–13 September 2012) in North-Eastern Italy, IOP13 (15–16 October 2012) in Central Italy and IOP19 (3–5 November 2012) in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems. Moreover, using one of the three events, the usefulness of different operational chains is highlighted.

Description: Correcting basin-scale snowfall in a mountainous basin using a distributed snowmelt model and remote sensing data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11711-11753, 2013 Author(s): M. Shrestha, L. Wang, T. Koike, H. Tsutsui, Y. Xue, and Y. Hirabayashi Adequate estimation of the spatial distribution of snowfall is critical in hydrologic modeling. However, this is a well-known problem in estimating basin-scale snowfall, especially in mountainous basins with data scarcity. This study focuses on correction and estimation of this spatial distribution, which considers topographic effects within the basin. A method is proposed that optimizes an altitude-based snowfall correction factor ( C fsnow ). This is done through multi-objective calibration of a spatially distributed, multilayer energy and water balance-based snowmelt model (WEB-DHM-S) with observed discharge and remotely sensed snow cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The Shuffled Complex Evolution – University of Arizona automatic search algorithm is used to obtain the optimal value of C fsnow for minimum cumulative error in discharge and snow cover simulations. Discharge error is quantified by Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and relative volume deviation, and snow cover error was estimated by pixel-by-pixel analysis. The study region is the heavily snow-fed Yagisawa Basin of the Upper Tone River in northeast Japan. First, the system was applied to one snow season (2002–2003), obtaining an optimized C fsnow of 0.0007 m −1 . For validation purposes, the optimized C fsnow was implemented to correct snowfall in 2004, 2002 and 2001. Overall, the system was effective, implying improvements in correlation of simulated vs. observed discharge and snow cover. The 4 yr mean of basin-average snowfall for the corrected spatial snowfall distribution was 1160 mm (780 mm before correction). Execution of sensitivity runs against other model input and parameters indicated that C fsnow could be affected by uncertainty in shortwave radiation and setting of the threshold air temperature parameter. Our approach is suitable to correct snowfall and estimate its distribution in poorly-gauged basins, where elevation dependence of snowfall amount is strong.

Description: High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records The Cryosphere, 7, 1481-1498, 2013 Author(s): S. Kutuzov, M. Shahgedanova, V. Mikhalenko, P. Ginot, I. Lavrentiev, and S. Kemp The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s −1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s −1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

Description: Changes in glacier equilibrium-line altitude in the western Alps from 1984 to 2010: evaluation by remote sensing and modeling of the morpho-topographic and climate controls The Cryosphere, 7, 1455-1471, 2013 Author(s): A. Rabatel, A. Letréguilly, J.-P. Dedieu, and N. Eckert We present time series of equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) measured from the end-of-summer snow line altitude computed using satellite images, for 43 glaciers in the western Alps over the 1984–2010 period. More than 120 satellite images acquired by Landsat, SPOT and ASTER were used. In parallel, changes in climate variables, summer cumulative positive degree days (CPDD) and winter precipitation, were analyzed over the same time period using 22 weather stations located inside and around the study area. Assuming a continuous linear trend over the study period: (1) the average ELA of the 43 glaciers increased by about 170 m; (2) summer CPDD increased by about 150 PDD at 3000 m a.s.l.; and (3) winter precipitation remained rather stationary. Summer CPDD showed homogeneous spatial and temporal variability; winter precipitation showed homogeneous temporal variability, but some stations showed a slightly different spatial pattern. Regarding ELAs, temporal variability between the 43 glaciers was also homogeneous, but spatially, glaciers in the southern part of the study area differed from glaciers in the northern part, mainly due to a different precipitation pattern. A sensitivity analysis of the ELAs to climate and morpho-topographic variables (elevation, aspect, latitude) highlighted the following: (1) the average ELA over the study period of each glacier is strongly controlled by morpho-topographic variables; and (2) the interannual variability of the ELA is strongly controlled by climate variables, with the observed increasing trend mainly driven by increasing temperatures, even if significant nonlinear, low-frequency fluctuations appear to be driven by winter precipitation anomalies. Finally, we used an expansion of Lliboutry's approach to reconstruct fluctuations in the ELA of any glacier of the study area with respect to morpho-topographic and climate variables, by quantifying their respective weight and the related uncertainties in a consistent manner within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This method was tested and validated using the ELA measured on the satellite images.

Description: Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11795-11828, 2013 Author(s): L. Yang, F. Tian, Y. Sun, X. Yuan, and H. Hu Hindcasts based on the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach are carried out in a typical rainfall-dominated basin in China, aiming to examine the roles of initial condition (IC), future atmospheric forcing (FC) and hydrologic model uncertainty (MU) in the streamflow forecast skill. The combined effects of IC and FC are explored within the framework of a forecast window. By implementing virtual numerical simulations without the consideration of MU, it is found that the dominance of IC could last up to 90 days in dry season, while its impact gives way to FC for lead times exceeding 30 days in the wet season. The combined effects of IC and FC on the forecast skill are further investigated by proposing a dimensionless parameter ( β ) that represents the ratio of the total amount of initial water storage and the incoming rainfall. The forecast skill increases exponentially with β , and varies greatly in different forecast windows. Moreover, the influence of MU on forecast skill is examined by focusing on the uncertainty of model parameters. Two different hydrologic model calibration strategies are carried out. The results indicate that the uncertainty of model parameters exhibits a more significant influence on the forecast skill in the dry season than in the wet season. The ESP approach is more skillful in monthly streamflow forecast during the transition period from wet to dry than otherwise. For the transition period from dry to wet, the low skill of the forecasts could be attributed to the combined effects of IC and FC, but less to the biases in the hydrologic model parameters. For the forecasting in dry season, the usefulness of the ESP approach is heavily dependent on the strategy of the model calibration.

Description: A note on the water budget of temperate glaciers The Cryosphere, 7, 1557-1564, 2013 Author(s): J. Oerlemans In this note, the total dissipative melting in temperate glaciers is studied. The analysis is based on the notion that the dissipation is determined by the loss of potential energy due to the downward motion of mass (ice, snow, meltwater and rain). A mathematical formulation of the dissipation is developed and applied to a simple glacier geometry. In the next step, meltwater production resulting from enhanced ice motion during a glacier surge is calculated. The amount of melt energy available follows directly from the lowering of the centre of gravity of the glacier. To illustrate the concept, schematic calculations are presented for a number of glaciers with different geometric characteristics. Typical dissipative melt rates, expressed as water-layer depth averaged over the glacier, range from a few centimetres per year for smaller glaciers to half a metre per year for Franz Josef Glacier, one of the most active glaciers in the world (in terms of mass turnover). The total generation of meltwater during a surge is typically half a metre. For Variegated Glacier a value of 70 cm is found, for Kongsvegen 20 cm. These values refer to water layer depth averaged over the entire glacier. The melt \textit{rate} depends on the duration of the surge. It is generally an order of magnitude greater than water production by `normal' dissipation. On the other hand, the additional basal melt rate during a surge is comparable in magnitude with the water input from meltwater and precipitation. This suggests that enhanced melting during a surge does not grossly change the total water budget of a glacier. Basal water generated by enhanced sliding is an important ingredient in many theories of glacier surges. It provides a positive feedback mechanism that actually makes the surge happen. The results found here suggest that this can only work if water generated by enhanced sliding accumulates in a part of the glacier base where surface meltwater and rain have no or very limited access. This finding seems compatible with the fact that, on many glaciers, surges are initiated in the lower accumulation zone.

Description: A conceptual model of check dam hydraulics for gully control Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11901-11941, 2013 Author(s): C. Castillo, R. Pérez, and J. A. Gómez There is little information in scientific literature regarding the modifications induced by check dam systems in flow regimes in restored gully reaches, despite it being a crucial issue for the design of conservation measures. Here, we develop a conceptual model to classify flow regimes in straight rectangular channels for initial and dam-filling conditions as well as a method of estimating efficiency in order to provide guidelines for optimal design. The model integrates several previous mathematical approaches for assessing the main processes involved (hydraulic jump HJ, impact flow, gradually varied flows). Its performance was compared with the simulations obtained from IBER, a bi-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The impact of check dam spacing (defined by the geometric factor of influence c ) on efficiency was explored. Eleven main classifications of flow regimes were identified depending on the element and level of influence. The model produced similar results when compared with IBER, but led to higher estimations of HJ and impact lengths. Total influence guaranteed maximum efficiency and HJ control defining the location of the optimal c . Geometric total influence ( c = 1) was a valid criterion for the different stages of the structures in a wide range of situations provided that hydraulic roughness conditions remained high within the gully, e.g. through revegetation. Our total influence criterion involved shorter spacing than that habitually recommended in technical manuals for restoration, but was in line with those values found in spontaneous and stable step-pools systems, which might serve as a reference for man-made interventions.

Description: Senstitivity of water balance components to environmental changes in a mountainous watershed: uncertainty assessment based on models comparison Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11983-12026, 2013 Author(s): E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Zabalza, K. Rahman, A. Gago-Silva, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Vicente-Serrano, A. Lehmann, C. L. Tague, and M. Beniston This paper evaluates the response of stream flow and other components of the water balance to changes in climate and land-use in a Pyrenean watershed. It further provides a measure of uncertainty in water resources forecasts by comparing the performance of two hydrological models: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Regional Climate Model outputs for the 2021–2050 time-frame, and hypothetical (but plausible) land-use scenarios considering re-vegetation and wildfire processes were used as inputs to the models. Results indicate an overall decrease in river flows when the scenarios are considered, except for the post-fire vegetation scenario, in which stream flows are simulated to increase. However the magnitude of these projections varies between the two models used, as SWAT tends to produce larger hydrological changes under climate change scenarios, and RHESSys shows more sensitivity to changes in land-cover. The final prediction will therefore depend largely on the combination of the land-use and climate scenarios, and on the model utilized.

Description: Hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment of Western Australia: a projection of rainfall-runoff for future water resources planning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 12027-12076, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Islam, M. A. Bari, and A. H. M. F. Anwar Reduction of rainfall and runoff in recent years across South West Western Australia (SWWA) has drawn attention about climate change impact on water resources and its availability in this region. In this paper, hydrologic impact of climate change on Murray Hotham catchment in SWWA is investigated using multi-model ensemble approach. The Land Use Change Incorporated Catchment (LUCICAT) model was used for hydrologic modelling. Model calibration was performed using (5 km) grid rainfall data from Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Downscaled and bias corrected rainfall data from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios A2 and B1 was used in LUCICAT model to derive rainfall and runoff scenarios for 2046–2065 (mid this century) and 2081–2100 (late this century). The results of climate scenarios were compared with observed past (1961–1980) climate. The mean annual rainfall averaged over the catchment during recent time (1981–2000) was reduced by 2.3% with respect to observed past (1961–1980) and resulting runoff reduction was found 14%. Compared to the past, the mean annual rainfall reductions, averaged over 11 ensembles and over the period for the catchment for A2 scenario are 13.6 and 23.6% for mid and late this century respectively while the corresponding runoff reductions are 36 and 74%. For B1 scenario, the rainfall reductions were 11.9 and 11.6% for mid and late this century and corresponding runoff reductions were 31 and 38%. Spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff changes showed that the rate of changes were higher in high rainfall part compared to the low rainfall part. Temporal distribution of rainfall and runoff indicate that high rainfall in the catchment reduced significantly and further reductions are projected resulting significant runoff reductions. A catchment scenario map has been developed through plotting decadal runoff reduction against corresponding rainfall reduction at four gauging stations for observed and projected period. This could be useful for planning future water resources in the catchment. Projection of rainfall and runoff made based on the GCMs varied significantly for the time periods and emission scenarios. Hence, considerable uncertainty involved in this study though ensemble mean was used to explain the findings.

Description: Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties The Cryosphere, 7, 1565-1577, 2013 Author(s): S. H. Mernild, W. H. Lipscomb, D. B. Bahr, V. Radić, and M. Zemp Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions.

Description: Upscaling of evapotranspiration fluxes from instantaneous to daytime scales for thermal remote sensing applications Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7325-7350, 2013 Author(s): C. Cammalleri, M. C. Anderson, and W. P. Kustas Four upscaling methods for estimating daytime evapotranspiration (ET) from single time-of-day snapshots, as commonly retrieved using remote sensing, were compared. These methods are based on the assumption of self-preservation of the ratio between ET and a given reference variable over the daytime hours. The analysis was performed using eddy covariance data collected at 12 AmeriFlux towers, sampling a fairly wide range in climatic and land cover conditions. The choice of energy budget closure method significantly impacted performance using different scaling methodologies. Therefore, a statistical evaluation approach was adopted to better account for the inherent uncertainty in ET fluxes using eddy covariance technique. Overall, this approach suggests that at-surface solar radiation is the most robust reference variable amongst those tested, due to high accuracy of upscaled fluxes and absence of systematic biases. Top-of-atmosphere irradiance was also tested and proved to be reliable under near clear-sky conditions, but tended to overestimate the observed daytime ET during cloudy days. Use of reference ET as a scaling flux did not perform as well as the solar radiation method, but similarly had errors with little seasonal dependency. Finally, the commonly-used evaporative fraction method yielded satisfactory results only in summer months, July and August, and tended to underestimate the observations in the fall/winter seasons from November to January at the flux sites studied.

Description: Global isoscapes for δ 18 O and δ 2 H in precipitation: improved prediction using regionalized climatic regression models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7351-7393, 2013 Author(s): S. Terzer, L. I. Wassenaar, L. J. Araguás-Araguás, and P. K. Aggarwal A Regionalized Climatic Water Isotope Prediction (RCWIP) approach, based on the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), was demonstrated for the purposes of predicting point- and large-scale spatiotemporal patterns of the stable isotope compositions of water (δ 2 H, δ 18 O) in precipitation around the world. Unlike earlier global domain and fixed regressor models, RCWIP pre-defined thirty-six climatic cluster domains, and tested all model combinations from an array of climatic and spatial regressor variables to obtain the best predictive approach to each cluster domain, as indicated by RMSE and variogram analysis. Fuzzy membership fractions were thereafter used as the weights to seamlessly amalgamate results of the optimized climatic zone prediction models into a single predictive mapping product, such as global or regional amount-weighted mean annual, mean monthly or growing-season δ 18 O/δ 2 H in precipitation. Comparative tests revealed the RCWIP approach outperformed classical global-fixed regression-interpolation based models more than 67% of the time, and significantly improved upon predictive accuracy and precision. All RCWIP isotope mapping products are available as gridded GeoTIFF files from the IAEA website ( www.iaea.org/water ) and are for use in hydrology, climatology, food authenticity, ecology, and forensics.

Description: Water displacement by sewer infrastructure in the Grote Nete catchment, Belgium, and its hydrological regime effects Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7425-7467, 2013 Author(s): D. Vrebos, T. Vansteenkiste, J. Staes, P. Willems, and P. Meire Urbanization and especially impervious areas, in combination with wastewater treatment infrastructure, can exert several pressures on the hydrological cycle. These pressures were studied for the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium (8.18% impervious area and 3.89% effective impervious area), based on a combination of empirical and model-based approaches. The effective impervious area, combined with the extent of the wastewater collection regions which do not coincide with the natural catchment boundaries, was used as an indicator for the urbanization pressure. Our study revealed changes in the total upstream areas of the subcatchments between −16% and +3%, and in upstream impervious areas between −99% and +64%. These changes lead to important inter-catchment water transfers. Based on simulations with a physically-based and spatially-distributed hydrological catchment model, profound impacts of effective impervious area on infiltration and runoff were found. The model results show that the changes in impervious areas and related water displacements in and between catchments due to the installation of the wastewater treatment infrastructure severely impacted low flows, peak flows and seasonal trends. They moreover show that it is difficult, but of utmost importance, to incorporate these pressures and artificial processes in an accurate way during the development of hydrological models for urbanized catchments.

Description: Recent changes in spring snowmelt timing in the Yukon River basin detected by passive microwave satellite data The Cryosphere, 7, 905-916, 2013 Author(s): K. A. Semmens and J. M. Ramage Spring melt is a significant feature of high latitude snowmelt dominated drainage basins influencing hydrological and ecological processes such as snowmelt runoff and green-up. Melt duration, defined as the transition period from snowmelt onset until the end of the melt refreeze, is characterized by high diurnal amplitude variations (DAV) where the snowpack is melting during the day and refreezing at night, after which the snowpack melts constantly until depletion. Determining trends for this critical period is necessary for understanding how the Arctic is changing with rising temperatures and provides a baseline from which to assess future change. To study this dynamic period, brightness temperature ( T b ) data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) 37 V-GHz frequency from 1988 to 2010 were used to assess snowmelt timing trends for the Yukon River basin, Alaska/Canada. Annual T b and DAV for 1434 Equal-Area Scalable Earth (EASE)-Grid pixels (25 km resolution) were processed to determine melt onset and melt refreeze dates from T b and DAV thresholds previously established in the region. Temporal and spatial trends in the timing of melt onset and melt refreeze, and the duration of melt were analyzed for the 13 sub-basins of the Yukon River basin with three different time interval approaches. Results show a lengthening of the melt period for the majority of the sub-basins with a significant trend toward later end of melt refreeze after which the snowpack melts day and night leading to snow clearance, peak discharge, and green-up. Earlier melt onset trends were also found in the higher elevations and northernmost sub-basins (Porcupine, Chandalar, and Koyukuk rivers). Latitude and elevation displayed the dominant controls on melt timing variability and spring solar flux was highly correlated with melt timing in middle (∼600–1600 m) elevations.

Description: Virtual water trade and development in Africa Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7291-7324, 2013 Author(s): M. Konar and K. Caylor A debate has long existed on the relationships between human population, natural resources, and development. Recent research has expanded this debate to include the impacts of trade; specifically, virtual water trade, or the water footprint of traded commodities. We conduct an empirical analysis of the relationships between virtual water trade, population, and development in Africa. We find that increases in virtual water imports do not lead to increases in population growth nor do they diminish human welfare. We establish a new index of virtual water trade openness and show that levels of undernourishment tend to fall with increased values of virtual water trade openness. Countries with small dam storage capacity obtain a higher fraction of their agricultural water requirements from external sources, which may indicate implicit "infrastructure sharing" across nations. Globally, increased crop exports tends to correlate with increased crop water use efficiency, though this relationship does not hold for Africa. However, internal African trade is much more efficient in terms of embodied water resources than any other region in the world. Thus, internal African trade patterns may be compensating for poor internal production systems.

Description: Seasonal controls on snow distribution and aerial ablation at the snow-patch and landscape scales, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 917-931, 2013 Author(s): J. W. Eveland, M. N. Gooseff, D. J. Lampkin, J. E. Barrett, and C. D. Takacs-Vesbach Accumulated snow in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, while limited, has great ecological significance to subnivian soil environments. Though sublimation dominates the ablation process in this region, measurable increases in soil moisture and insulation from temperature extremes provide more favorable conditions with respect to subnivian soil communities. While precipitation is not substantial, significant amounts of snow can accumulate, via wind transport, in topographic lees along the valley bottoms, forming thousands of discontinuous snow patches. These patches have the potential to act as significant sources of local meltwater, controlling biogeochemical cycling and the landscape distribution of microbial communities. Therefore, determining the spatial and temporal dynamics of snow at multiple scales is imperative to understanding the broader ecological role of snow in this region. High-resolution satellite imagery acquired during the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 austral summers was used to quantify the distribution of snow across Taylor and Wright valleys. Extracted snow-covered area from the imagery was used as the basis for assessing inter-annual variability and seasonal controls on accumulation and ablation of snow at multiple scales. In addition to landscape analyses, fifteen 1 km 2 plots (3 in each of 5 study regions) were selected to assess the prevalence of snow cover at finer spatial scales, referred to herein as the snow-patch scale. Results confirm that snow patches tend to form in the same locations each year with some minor deviations observed. At the snow-patch scale, neighboring patches often exhibit considerable differences in aerial ablation rates, and particular snow patches do not reflect trends for snow-covered area observed at the landscape scale. These differences are presumably related to microtopographic influences acting on individual snow patches, such as wind sheltering and differences in snow depth due to the underlying topography. This highlights the importance of both the landscape and snow-patch scales in assessing the effects of snow cover on biogeochemical cycling and microbial communities.

Description: An interdisciplinary swat ecohydrological model to define catchment-scale hydrologic partitioning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 7235-7290, 2013 Author(s): C. L. Shope, G. R. Maharjan, J. Tenhunen, B. Seo, K. Kim, J. Riley, S. Arnhold, T. Koellner, Y. S. Ok, S. Peiffer, B. Kim, J.-H. Park, and B. Huwe Land use and climate change have long been implicated in modifying ecosystem services, such as water quality and water yield, biodiversity, and agricultural production. To account for future effects on ecosystem services, the integration of physical, biological, economic, and social data over several scales must be implemented to assess the effects on natural resource availability and use. Our objective is to assess the capability of the SWAT model to capture short-duration monsoonal rainfall-runoff processes in complex mountainous terrain under rapid, event-driven processes in a monsoonal environment. To accomplish this, we developed a unique quality-control gap-filling algorithm for interpolation of high frequency meteorological data. We used a novel multi-location, multi-optimization calibration technique to improve estimations of catchment-wide hydrologic partitioning. We calibrated the interdisciplinary model to a combination of statistical, hydrologic, and plant growth metrics. In addition, we used multiple locations of different drainage area, aspect, elevation, and geologic substrata distributed throughout the catchment. Results indicate scale-dependent sensitivity of hydrologic partitioning and substantial influence of engineered features. While our model accurately reproduced observed discharge variability, the addition of hydrologic and plant growth objective functions identified the importance of culverts in catchment-wide flow distribution. The results of this study provide a valuable resource to describe landscape controls and their implication on discharge, sediment transport, and nutrient loading. This study also shows the challenges of applying the SWAT model to complex terrain and extreme environments. By incorporating anthropogenic features into modeling scenarios, we can greatly enhance our understanding of the hydroecological impacts on ecosystem services.

Description: Technical note: Method of Morris effectively reduces the computational demands of global sensitivity analysis for distributed watershed models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4275-4299, 2013 Author(s): J. D. Herman, J. B. Kollat, P. M. Reed, and T. Wagener The increase in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling warrants a corresponding increase in diagnostic methods capable of analyzing complex models with large numbers of parameters. Sobol ' sensitivity analysis has proven to be a valuable tool for diagnostic analyses of hydrologic models. However, for many spatially distributed models, the Sobol ' method requires a prohibitive number of model evaluations to reliably decompose output variance across the full set of parameters. We investigate the potential of the method of Morris, a screening-based sensitivity approach, to provide results sufficiently similar to those of the Sobol ' method at a greatly reduced computational expense. The methods are benchmarked on the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) model over a six-month period in the Blue River Watershed, Oklahoma, USA. The Sobol ' method required over six million model evaluations to ensure reliable sensitivity indices, corresponding to more than 30 000 computing hours and roughly 180 gigabytes of storage space. We find that the method of Morris is able to correctly identify sensitive and insensitive parameters with 300 times fewer model evaluations, requiring only 100 computing hours and 1 gigabyte of storage space. Method of Morris proves to be a promising diagnostic approach for global sensitivity analysis of highly parameterized, spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4515-4536, 2013 Author(s): G. Di Baldassarre, A. Viglione, G. Carr, L. Kuil, J. L. Salinas, and G. Blöschl Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by the society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.

Description: Integration of remote sensing, RUSLE and GIS to model potential soil loss and sediment yield (SY) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4567-4596, 2013 Author(s): H. Kamaludin, T. Lihan, Z. Ali Rahman, M. A. Mustapha, W. M. R. Idris, and S. A. Rahim Land use activities within a basin serve as one of the contributing factors which cause deterioration of river water quality through its potential effect on erosion. Sediment yield in the form of suspended solid in the river water body which is transported to the coastal area occurs as a sign of lowering of the water quality. Hence, the aim of this study was to determine potential soil loss using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and the sediment yield, in the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) environment within selected sub-catchments of Pahang River Basin. RUSLE was used to estimate potential soil losses and sediment yield by utilizing information on rainfall erosivity ( R ) using interpolation of rainfall data, soil erodibility ( K ) using field measurement and soil map, vegetation cover ( C ) using satellite images, topography (LS) using DEM and conservation practices ( P ) using satellite images. The results indicated that the rate of potential soil loss in these sub-catchments ranged from very low to extremely high. The area covered by very low to low potential soil loss was about 99%, whereas moderate to extremely high soil loss potential covered only about 1% of the study area. Sediment yield represented only 1% of the potential soil loss. The sediment yield (SY) value in Pahang River turned out to be higher closer to the river mouth because of the topographic character, climate, vegetation type and density, and land use within the drainage basin.

Description: Probability distributions for explaining hydrological losses in South Australian catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4597-4626, 2013 Author(s): S. H. P. W. Gamage, G. A. Hewa, and S. Beecham The wide variability of hydrological losses in catchments is due to multiple variables that affect the rainfall-runoff process. Accurate estimation of hydrological losses is required for making vital decisions in design applications that are based on design rainfall models and rainfall-runoff models. Using representative single values of losses, despite their wide variability, is common practice, especially in Australian studies. This practice leads to issues such as over or under estimation of design floods. Probability distributions can be used as a better representation of losses. In particular, using joint probability approaches (JPA), probability distributions can be incorporated into hydrological loss parameters in design models. However, lack of understanding of loss distributions limits the benefit of using JPA. The aim of this paper is to identify a probability distribution function that can successfully describe hydrological losses in South Australian (SA) catchments. This paper describes suitable parametric and non-parametric distributions that can successfully describe observed loss data. The goodness-of-fit of the fitted distributions and quantification of the errors associated with quantile estimation are also discussed a two-parameter Gamma distribution was identified as one that successfully described initial loss (IL) data of the selected catchments. Also, a non-parametric standardised distribution of losses that describes both IL and continuing loss (CL) data were identified. The results obtained for the non-parametric methods were compared with similar studies carried out in other parts of Australia and a remarkable degree of consistency was observed. The results will be helpful in improving design flood applications.

Description: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets The Cryosphere, 7, 647-655, 2013 Author(s): G. H. Gudmundsson Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine-type ice sheets are investigated numerically. Buttressing effects are analysed for a situation where a stable grounding line is located on a bed sloping upwards in the direction of flow. Such grounding-line positions are known to be unconditionally unstable in the absence of transverse flow variations. It is shown that ice-shelf buttressing can restore stability under these conditions. Ice flux at the grounding line is, in general, not a monotonically increasing function of ice thickness. This, possibly at first somewhat counterintuitive result, is found to be fully consistent with recent theoretical work. Grounding lines on retrograde slopes are conditionally stable, and the stability regime is a non-trivial function of bed and ice-shelf geometry. The stability of grounding lines cannot be assessed from considerations of local bed slope only.

Description: Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data The Cryosphere, 7, 615-630, 2013 Author(s): M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, T. Mote, J. Wahr, P. Alexander, J. E. Box, and B. Wouters A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ∼97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ∼2 months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ∼3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance (SMB) was ∼3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g., albedo, surface temperature) and preconditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should these characteristics persist.

Description: Technical Note: Using wavelet analyses on water depth time series to detect glacial influence in high-mountain hydrosystems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4369-4395, 2013 Author(s): S. Cauvy-Fraunié, T. Condom, A. Rabatel, M. Villacis, D. Jacobsen, and O. Dangles Worldwide, the rapid shrinking of glaciers in response to ongoing climate change is currently modifying the glacial meltwater contribution to hydrosystems in glacierized catchments. Assessing the contribution of glacier run-off to stream discharge is therefore of critical importance to evaluate potential impact of glacier retreat on water quality and aquatic biota. This task has challenged both glacier hydrologists and ecologists over the last 20 yr due to both structural and functional complexity of the glacier-stream system interface. Here we propose a new methodological approach based on wavelet analyses on water depth time series to determine the glacial influence in glacierized catchments. We performed water depth measurement using water pressure loggers over ten months in 15 stream sites in two glacier-fed catchments in the Ecuadorian Andes (〉 4000 m). We determined the global wavelet spectrum of each time series and defined the Wavelet Glacier Signal (WGS) as the ratio between the global wavelet power spectrum value at a 24 h-scale and its corresponding significance value. To test the relevance of the WGS we compared it with the percentage of the glacier cover in the catchments, a metric of glacier influence often used in the literature. We then tested whether one month data could be sufficient to reliably determine the glacial influence. As expected we found that the WGS of glacier-fed streams decreased downstream with the increasing of non-glacial tributaries. We also found that the WGS and the percentage of the glacier cover in the catchment were significantly positively correlated and that one month data was sufficient to identify and compare the glacial influence between two sites, provided that the water level time series were acquired over the same period. Furthermore, we found that our method permits to detect glacial signal in supposedly non-glacial sites, thereby evidencing glacial meltwater infiltrations. While we specifically focused on the tropical Andes in this paper, our approach to determine glacier influence would be applicable to temperate and arctic glacierized catchments. The WGS therefore appears as a powerful and cost effective tool to better understand the hydrological links between glaciers and hydrosystems and assess the consequences of rapid glacier melting.

Description: Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of riparian soil morphology in a restored floodplain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4337-4367, 2013 Author(s): B. Fournier, C. Guenat, G. Bullinger-Weber, and E. A. D. Mitchell Floodplains have been intensively altered in industrialized countries, but are now increasingly being restored and it is therefore important to assess the effect of these restoration projects on the aquatic and terrestrial components of ecosystems. Soils are a functionally crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems but are generally overlooked in floodplain restoration assessment. We studied the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of soil morphology in a restored (riverbed widening) river reach along River Thur (Switzerland) using three criteria (soil diversity, dynamism and typicality) and their associated indicators. We hypothesized that these criteria would correctly discriminate the post-restoration changes in soil morphology within the study site, and that these changes correspond to patterns of vascular plant diversity. Soil diversity and dynamism increased five years after the restoration, but typical soils of braided rivers were still missing. Soil typicality and dynamism correlated to vegetation changes. These results suggest a limited success of the project in agreement with evaluations carried out at the same site using other, more resource demanding methods (e.g. soil fauna, fish, ecosystem functioning). Soil morphology provides structural and functional information on floodplain ecosystems and allows predicting broad changes in plant diversity. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of soil morphology represents a cost-efficient ecological indicator that could easily be integrated into rapid assessment protocols of floodplain and river restoration projects.

Description: Space-time kriging extension of precipitation variability at 12 km spacing from tree-ring chronologies and its implications for drought analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4301-4335, 2013 Author(s): F. Biondi Understanding and preparing for future hydroclimatic variability greatly benefits from long (i.e., multi-century) records at seasonal to annual time steps that have been gridded at km-scale spatial intervals over a geographic region. Kriging is a geostatistical technique commonly used for optimal interpolation of environmental data, and space-time geostatistical models can improve kriging estimates when long temporal sequences of observations exist at relatively few points on the landscape. Here I present how a network of 22 tree-ring chronologies from single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) in the central Great Basin of North America was used to extend hydroclimatic records both temporally and spatially. First, the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC) method was used to reconstruct October–May total precipitation anomalies at each tree-ring site, as these ecotonal environments at the lower forest border are typically moisture limited. Individual site reconstructions were then combined using a hierarchical model of spatio-temporal kriging that produced annual anomaly maps on a 12 × 12 km grid during the period in common among all chronologies (1650–1976). Hydro-climatic episodes were numerically identified and modeled using their duration, magnitude, and peak. Spatial patterns were more variable during wet years than during dry years, and the evolution of drought episodes over space and time could be visualized and quantified. The most remarkable episode in the entire reconstruction was the early 1900s pluvial, followed by the late 1800s drought. The 1930s "Dust Bowl" drought was among the top ten hydroclimatic episodes in the past few centuries. These results directly address the needs of water and natural resource managers with respect to planning for "worst case" scenarios of drought duration and magnitude at the watershed level. For instance, it is possible to analyze which geographical areas are more likely to be impacted by severe and sustained droughts at annual or multiannual timescales and at spatial resolutions commonly used by regional climate models.

Description: Optimising predictor domains for spatially coherent precipitation downscaling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4015-4061, 2013 Author(s): S. Radanovics, J.-P. Vidal, E. Sauquet, A. Ben Daoud, and G. Bontron Statistical downscaling is widely used to overcome the scale gap between predictors from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models or General Circulation Models (GCMs) and predictands like local precipitation, required for example for medium-term operational forecasts or climate change impact studies. The predictors are considered over a given spatial domain which is rarely optimised with respect to the target predictand location. In this study the geopotential predictor domains used by an analogue downscaling method are optimised for 608 target zones covering France. An extended version of the growing rectangular domain algorithm provides an ensemble of five near-optimum domains for each target zone. All five near-optimum domains are consistently equally skillful based on the Continuous Rank Probability Score. Relevance maps calculated for selected target zones first reveal high skill geopotential regions with specific shapes for locations in south-eastern France compared to the rest of the country. In all cases, the optimised domains tend to include the most relevant area on the relevance maps. The domain centers of the optimised domains are mainly distributed following the geographical location of the target location, but there are apparent differences between the windward and the lee side of mountain ridges. Moreover, domains for target zones located in south-eastern France are centered more east and south than the ones for target locations on the same longitude. The size of the optimised domains tends to be larger in the southeastern part of the country, while domains with a very small meridional extent can be found in a east-west band around 47° N. Sensitivity tests on the archive length for the analogue method show a general robustness except for zones with high interannual variability like in the Cévennes area. Moreover, results appear to be rather unsensitive to the starting point of the optimisation algorithm except for zones located in the transition area north of the zones having optimized domains with a small meridional extent. This study paves the way for defining regions with homogeneous geopotential predictor domains for precipitation downscaling over France.

Description: Opportunities and challenges for the use of scintillometer-based catchment-averaged evapotranspiration estimates as model forcing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 3973-4013, 2013 Author(s): B. Samain and V. R. N. Pauwels To date, lumped rainfall-runoff models rely on rough estimates of catchment-averaged potential evapotranspiration (ET p ) rates as meteorological forcing. A model parameter converts this ET p input into actual evapotranspiration (ET act ) estimates. This paper examines the potential use of scintillometer-based ET act rates for rainfall-runoff modeling. It has been found that the reservoir-structure of the rainfall-runoff model functions as a low-pass filter for the ET p input. If the long-term volume of the ET p used in the model simulations is consistent with the data set used for calibration, a good match of the seasonal pattern, using temporally constant ET p data, is sufficient to obtain adequate discharge simulations. However, these results are then obtained with strongly erroneous evapotranspiration estimates. A better match of the diurnal cycle does not lead to better model results. Replacing the ET p inputs by scintillometer-based ET act estimates does not lead to better model predictions. Small underestimations of ET act under stable conditions, which occur at night and during the Winter, and which accumulate to significant amounts, are the cause of this problem. Consistent with other studies, the scintillometer-based ET act estimates can be considered reliable and realistic under unstable conditions. These values can thus be used as forcing for rainfall-runoff models.

Description: Temporal stability of soil moisture patterns measured by proximal ground-penetrating radar Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4063-4097, 2013 Author(s): J. Minet, N. E. C. Verhoest, S. Lambot, and M. Vanclooster We analyzed the temporal stability of soil moisture patterns acquired using a proximal ground-penetrating radar (GPR) in a 2.5 ha agricultural field at five different dates over three weeks. The GPR system was mounted on a mobile platform, allowing for real-time mapping of soil moisture with a high spatial resolution (2–5 m). The spatio-temporal soil moisture patterns were in accordance with the meteorological data and with soil moisture measurements from soil core sampling. Time-stable areas showing the field-average moisture could be revealed by two methods: (1) by the computation of temporal stability indicators based on relative differences of soil moisture to the field-average and (2) by the spatial intersection of the areas showing the field-average. Locations where the mean relative difference was below 0.02 m 3 m −3 extended up to 10% of the field area whereas the intersection of areas showing the field-average within a tolerance of 0.02 m 3 m −3 covered 5% of the field area. Compared to most of the previous studies about temporal stability of soil moisture, time-stable areas and their spatial patterns could be revealed instead of single point locations, owing to the advanced GPR method for real-time mapping. It is believed that determining spatially coherent time-stable areas is more informative rather than determining time-stable points. Other acquisitions over larger time periods would be necessary to assert the robustness of the time-stable areas.

Description: Balanced conditions or slight mass gain of glaciers in the Lahaul and Spiti region (northern India, Himalaya) during the nineties preceded recent mass loss The Cryosphere, 7, 569-582, 2013 Author(s): C. Vincent, Al. Ramanathan, P. Wagnon, D. P. Dobhal, A. Linda, E. Berthier, P. Sharma, Y. Arnaud, M. F. Azam, P. G. Jose, and J. Gardelle The volume change of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (India, 32° 20 N, 77° 30' E) between 1988 and 2010 has been determined using in situ geodetic measurements. This glacier has experienced only a slight mass loss between 1988 and 2010 (−3.8 ± 2.0 m w.e. (water equivalent) corresponding to −0.17 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr −1 ). Using satellite digital elevation models (DEM) differencing and field measurements, we measure a negative mass balance (MB) between 1999 and 2010 (−4.8 ± 1.8 m w.e. corresponding to −0.44 ± 0.16 m w.e. yr −1 ). Thus, we deduce a slightly positive or near-zero MB between 1988 and 1999 (+1.0 ± 2.7 m w.e. corresponding to +0.09 ± 0.24 m w.e. yr −1 ). Furthermore, satellite DEM differencing reveals that the MB of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (−0.39 ± 0.15 m w.e. yr −1 ) has been only slightly less negative than the MB of a 2110 km 2 glaciarized area in the Lahaul and Spiti region (−0.44 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr −1 ) during 1999−2011. Hence, we conclude that the ice wastage is probably moderate in this region over the last 22 yr, with near equilibrium conditions during the nineties, and an ice mass loss after. The turning point from balanced to negative mass budget is not known but lies probably in the late nineties and at the latest in 1999. This positive or near-zero MB for Chhota Shigri Glacier (and probably for the surrounding glaciers of the Lahaul and Spiti region) during at least part of the 1990s contrasts with a recent compilation of MB data in the Himalayan range that indicated ice wastage since 1975. However, in agreement with this compilation, we confirm more negative balances since the beginning of the 21st century.

Description: Impacts of tropical cyclones on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 4537-4566, 2013 Author(s): C. T. Chang, S. P. Hamburg, J. L. Hwong, N. H. Lin, M. L. Hsueh, M. C. Chen, and T. C. Lin Tropical cyclones (typhoons/hurricanes) have major impacts on the biogeochemistry of forest ecosystems, but the stochastic nature and the long intervals between storms means that there are limited data on their effects. We characterized the impacts of 14 typhoons over six years on hydrochemistry of a subtropical forest plantation in Taiwan, a region experiencing frequent typhoons. Typhoons contributed 1/3 of annual rainfall on average, but ranged from 4% to 55%. The stochastic nature of annual typhoon related precipitation poses a challenge with respect to managing the impacts of these extreme events. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that typhoon-related rainfall is not significantly correlated with wind velocity, the current focus of weather forecasts. Thus little advance warning is provided for the hydrological impacts of these storms. The typhoons we studied contributed approximately one third of the annual input and output of most nutrients (except nitrogen) during an average 9.5d yr −1 period, resulting in nutrient input/output rates an order of magnitude greater than during non-typhoon period. Nitrate output balanced input during the non-typhoon period, but during the typhoon period an average of 10 kg ha −1 yr −1 nitrate was lost. Streamwater chemistry exhibited similarly high variability during typhoon and non-typhoon periods and returned to pre-typhoon levels one to three weeks following each typhoon. The streamwater chemistry appears to be very resilient in response to typhoons, resulting in minimal loss of nutrients.

Description: The geomorphological effect of cornice fall avalanches in the Longyeardalen valley, Svalbard The Cryosphere, 7, 1361-1374, 2013 Author(s): M. Eckerstorfer, H. H. Christiansen, L. Rubensdotter, and S. Vogel The study of snow avalanches and their geomorphological effect in the periglacial parts of the cryosphere is important for enhanced geomorphological process understanding as well as hazard-related studies. Only a few field studies, and particularly few in the High Arctic, have quantified avalanche sedimentation. Snow avalanches are traditionally ranked behind rockfall in terms of their significance for mass-wasting processes of rockslopes. Cornice fall avalanches are at present the most dominant snow avalanche type at two slope systems, called Nybyen and Larsbreen, in the valley Longyeardalen in central Svalbard. Both slope systems are on northwest-facing lee slopes underneath a large summit plateau, with annual cornices forming on the top. High-frequency and magnitude cornice fall avalanching is observed by daily automatic time-lapse photography. In addition, rock debris sedimentation by cornice fall avalanches was measured directly in permanent sediment traps or by snow inventories. The results from a maximum of seven years of measurements in a total of 13 catchments show maximum mean rock debris sedimentation rates ranging from 8.2 to 38.7 kg m −2 at Nybyen, and from 0.8 to 55.4 kg m −2 at Larsbreen. Correspondingly, avalanche fan surfaces accreted from 2.6 to 8.8 mm yr −1 at Nybyen, and from 0.2 to 13.9 mm yr −1 at Larsbreen. This comparably efficient rockslope mass wasting is due to collapsing cornices producing cornice fall avalanches containing large amounts of rock debris throughout the entire winter. The rock debris of different origin stems from the plateau crests, the adjacent free rock face and the transport pathway, accumulating distinct avalanche fans at both slope systems. Cornice fall avalanche sedimentation also contributed to the development of a rock glacier at the Larsbreen site during the Holocene. We have recorded present maximum rockwall retreat rates of 0.9 mm yr −1 at Nybyen, but as much as 6.7 mm yr −1 at Larsbreen, while average Holocene rockwall retreat rates of 1.1 mm yr −1 at Nybyen have been determined earlier. As cornice fall avalanches are the dominant type of avalanche in central Svalbard, the related geomorphological effect is assumed to be of significance at periglacial landscape scale. A climate-induced shift in prevailing winter wind direction could change the rockslope sedimentation effectively by changing the snow avalanche activity.

Description: Hurricane impacts on a pair of coastal forested watersheds: implications of selective hurricane damage to forest structure and streamflow dynamics Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11519-11557, 2013 Author(s): A. D. Jayakaran, T. M. Williams, H. Ssegane, D. M. Amatya, B. Song, and C. C. Trettin Hurricanes are infrequent but influential disruptors of ecosystem processes in the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Every southeastern forested wetland has the potential to be struck by a tropical cyclone. We examined the impact of Hurricane Hugo on two paired coastal watersheds in South Carolina in terms of stream flow and vegetation dynamics, both before and after the hurricane's passage in 1989. The study objectives were to quantify the magnitude and timing of changes including a reversal in relative streamflow-difference between two paired watersheds, and to examine the selective impacts of a hurricane on the vegetative composition of the forest. We related these impacts to their potential contribution to change watershed hydrology through altered evapotranspiration processes. Using over thirty years of monthly rainfall and streamflow data we showed that there was a significant transformation in the hydrologic character of the two watersheds – a transformation that occurred soon after the hurricane's passage. We linked the change in the rainfall-runoff relationship to a catastrophic shift in forest vegetation due to selective hurricane damage. While both watersheds were located in the path of the hurricane, extant forest structure varied between the two watersheds as a function of experimental forest management techniques on the treatment watershed. We showed that the primary damage was to older pines, and to some extent larger hardwood trees. We believe that lowered vegetative water use impacted both watersheds with increased outflows on both watersheds due to loss of trees following hurricane impact. However, one watershed was able to recover to pre hurricane levels of canopy transpiration at a quicker rate due to the greater abundance of pine seedlings and saplings in that watershed.

Description: Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram The Cryosphere, 7, 1385-1398, 2013 Author(s): R. Bhambri, T. Bolch, P. Kawishwar, D. P. Dobhal, D. Srivastava, and B. Pratap Glaciers in the Karakoram show long-term irregular behaviour with comparatively frequent and sudden advances. A glacier inventory of the upper Shyok valley situated in northeast Karakoram has been generated for the year 2002 using Landsat ETM+ and SRTM3 DEM as baseline data for the investigations and subsequent change analysis. The upper Shyok valley contained 2123 glaciers (larger than 0.02 km 2 in size) with an area of 2977.9 ± 95.3 km 2 in 2002. Out of these, 18 glaciers with an area of 1004.1 ± 32.1 km 2 showed surge-type behaviour. Change analysis based on Hexagon KH-9 (years 1973 and 1974) and Landsat TM/ETM+ (years 1989, 2002 and 2011) images had to be restricted to a subset of 136 glaciers (covering an area of 1609.7 ± 51.5 km 2 in 2002) due to adverse snow conditions. The area of the investigated glaciers, including the 18 surge-type glaciers identified, showed no significant changes during all studied periods. However, the analysis provides a hint that the overall glacier area slightly decreased until about 1989 (area 1973: 1613.6 ± 43.6 km 2 ; area 1989: 1602.0 ± 33.6 km 2 ) followed by an increase (area 2002: 1609.7 ± 51.5; area 2011: 1615.8 ± 35.5 km 2 ). Although the overall change in area is insignificant, advances in glacier tongues since the end of the 1980s are clearly visible. Detailed estimations of length changes for individual glaciers since the 1970s and for Central Rimo Glacier since the 1930s confirm the irregular retreat and advance.

Description: Recent evolution of China's virtual water trade: analysis of selected crops and considerations for policy Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11613-11641, 2013 Author(s): J. Shi, J. Liu, and L. Pinter China has dramatically increased its virtual water import unconsciously for recent years. Many studies have focused on the quantity of traded virtual water but very few go into analysing geographic distribution and the properties of China's virtual water trade network. This paper provides a calculation and analysis of the crop-related virtual water trade network of China based on 27 major primary crops between 1986 and 2009. The results show that China is a net importer of virtual water from water-abundant areas of North and South America, and a net virtual water exporter to water-stressed areas of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Virtual water import is far larger than virtual water export and in both import and export a small number of trade partners control the supply chain. Grain crops are the major contributors to virtual water trade, and among grain crops soybeans, mostly imported from the US, Brazil and Argentina are the most significant. As crop yield and crop water productivity in North and South America are generally higher than those in Asia and Africa, the effect of China's crop-related virtual water trade positively contributes to optimizing crop water use efficiency at the global scale. In order to mitigate water scarcity and secure the food supply, virtual water should be actively incorporated into national water management strategies. From the national perspective, China should reduce the export and increase the import of water-intensive crops. But the sources of virtual water import need to be further diversified to reduce supply chain risks and increase resilience.

Description: Weak layer fracture: facets and depth hoar The Cryosphere, 7, 1447-1453, 2013 Author(s): I. Reiweger and J. Schweizer Understanding failure initiation within weak snow layers is essential for modeling and predicting dry-snow slab avalanches. We therefore performed laboratory experiments with snow samples containing a weak layer consisting of either faceted crystals or depth hoar. During these experiments the samples were loaded with different loading rates and at various tilt angles until fracture. The strength of the samples decreased with increasing loading rate and increasing tilt angle. Additionally, we took pictures of the side of four samples with a high-speed video camera and calculated the displacement using a particle image velocimetry (PIV) algorithm. The fracture process within the weak layer could thus be observed in detail. Catastrophic failure started due to a shear fracture just above the interface between the depth hoar layer and the underlying crust.

Description: Scatter of mass changes estimates at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 1411-1432, 2013 Author(s): V. R. Barletta, L. S. Sørensen, and R. Forsberg During the last decade, the GRACE mission has provided valuable data for determining the mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Yet, discrepancies still exist in the published mass balance results, and comprehensive analyses on the sources of errors and discrepancies are lacking. Here, we present monthly mass changes together with trends derived from GRACE data at basin scale for both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and we assess the variability and errors for each of the possible sources of discrepancies, and we do this in an unprecedented systematic way, taking into account mass inference methods, data sets and background models. We find a very good agreement between the monthly mass change results derived from two independent methods, which represents a cross validation. For the monthly solutions, we find that most of the scatter is caused by the use of the two different data sets rather than the two different methods applied. Besides the well-known GIA trend uncertainty, we find that the geocenter motion and the recent de-aliasing corrections significantly impact the trends, with contributions of +13.2 Gt yr −1 and −20 Gt yr −1 , respectively, for Antarctica, which is more affected by these than Greenland. We show differences between the use of release RL04 and the new RL05 and confirm a lower noise content in the new release. The overall scatter of the solutions well exceeds the uncertainties propagated from the data errors and the leakage (as done in the past); hence we calculate new sound total errors for the monthly solutions and the trends. We find that the scatter in the monthly solutions caused by applying different estimates of geocenter motion time series (degree-1 corrections) is significant – contributing with up to 40% of the total error. For the whole GRACE period (2003–2011) our trend estimate for Greenland is −234 ± 20 Gt yr −1 and −83 ± 36 Gt yr −1 for Antarctica (−111 ± 15 Gt yr −1 in the western part). We also find a clear (with respect to our errors) increase of mass loss in the last four years.

Description: Can pH and electrical conductivity monitoring reveal spatial and temporal patterns in wetland geochemical processes? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 699-728, 2013 Author(s): P. J. Gerla Carbonate reactions and equilibria play a dominant role in the biogeochemical function of many wetlands. The US Geological Survey PHREEQC computer code was used to model geochemical reactions that may be typical for wetlands with water budgets characterized by: (a) input dominated by direct precipitation, (b) interaction with groundwater, (c) variable degrees of reaction with organic carbon, and (d) different rates of evapotranspiration. Rainfall with a typical composition was progressively reacted with calcite and organic carbon at various rates and proportions using PHREEQC. Contrasting patterns of the results suggest that basic water quality data collected in the field can reveal differences in the geochemical processes in wetlands. Given a temporal record, these can signal subtle changes in surrounding land cover and use. To demonstrate this, temperature, pH, and electrical conductivity (EC) were monitored for three years in five large wetlands comprising 48 sample sites in northwest Minnesota. EC and pH of samples ranged greatly – from 23 to 1300 μS cm −1 and 5.5 to 9. The largest range in pH was observed in small beach ridge wetlands, where two clusters are apparent: (1) low EC and a wide range of pH and (2) higher pH and EC. Large marshes within a glacial lake – till plain have a broad range of pH and EC, but depend on the specific wetland. Outlying data typically occurred in altered or disturbed areas. The inter-annual and intra-wetland consistency of the results suggests that each wetland system hosts characteristic geochemical conditions.

Description: Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 597-624, 2013 Author(s): C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson Potential evapotranspiration PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from twelve equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman-Monteith equations reproduce best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically-based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the twelve PET equations. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen-Hense and calibrated Blaney-Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley-Taylor, Makkink and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of twelve PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest-southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncetainty is perhaps one of the greatest challenges facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology.

Description: Climatic drivers of seasonal glacier mass balances: an analysis of 6 decades at Glacier de Sarennes (French Alps) The Cryosphere, 7, 47-66, 2013 Author(s): E. Thibert, N. Eckert, and C. Vincent Refined temporal signals extracted from a winter and summer mass balance series recorded at Glacier de Sarennes (French Alps) using variance decomposition are related to local meteorological data and large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies in terms of interannual variability, trends of the low-frequency signals, and breaks in the time series. The winter balance has increased by +23% since 1976 due to more precipitation in early and late winter. The summer balance has decreased since 1982 due to a 43% increase in snow and ice melt. A 24-day lengthening of the ablation period – mainly due to longer ice ablation – is the main component in the overall increase in ablation. In addition, the last 25 yr have seen increases in ablation rates of 14 and 10% for snow and ice, respectively. A simple degree-day analysis can account for both the snow/ice melt rate rise and the lengthening of the ablation period as a function of higher air temperatures. From the same analysis, the equilibrium-line altitude of this 45° N latitude south-facing glacier has a sensitivity to temperature of +93 m °C −1 around its mean elevation of 3100 m a.s.l. over 6 decades. The sensitivity of summer balance to temperature is −0.62 m w.e. yr −1 °C −1 for a typical 125-day-long ablation season. Finally, the correlation of winter and summer mass balance terms with NAO anomalies is investigated. Singularly, highest values are obtained between winter NAO anomalies and summer balance. Winter NAO anomalies and winter balance and precipitation are almost disconnected. However, these results strongly depend on how the NAO signal is smoothed, so that the link between Sarennes mass balance seasonal terms and NAO signal remains tenuous and hard to interpret.

Description: Fuzzy committees of specialised rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 675-697, 2013 Author(s): N. Kayastha, J. Ye, F. Fenicia, and D. P. Solomatine Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialised models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them forming a committee model. This study extends earlier work of using fuzzy committees to combine hydrological models calibrated for different hydrological regimes – by considering the suitability of the different weighting function for objective functions and different class of membership functions used to combine the local models and compare them with global optimal models.

Description: Optimal depth-based regional frequency analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 519-555, 2013 Author(s): H. Wazneh, F. Chebana, and T. B. M. J. Ouarda Classical methods of regional frequency analysis (RFA) of hydrological variables face two drawbacks: (1) the restriction to a particular region which can correspond to a loss of some information and (2) the definition of a region that generates a border effect. To reduce the impact of these drawbacks on regional modeling performance, an iterative method was proposed recently. The proposed method is based on the statistical notion of the depth function and a weight function φ. This depth-based RFA (DBRFA) approach was shown to be superior to traditional approaches in terms of flexibility, generality and performance. The main difficulty of the DBRFA approach is the optimal choice of the weight function φ (e.g. φ minimizing estimation errors). In order to avoid subjective choice and naïve selection procedures of φ, the aim of the present paper is to propose an algorithm-based procedure to optimize the DBRFA and automate the choice of φ according to objective performance criteria. This procedure is applied to estimate flood quantiles in three different regions in North America. One of the findings from the application is that the optimal weight function depends on the considered region and can also quantify the region homogeneity. By comparing the DBRFA to the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, results show that the DBRFA approach leads to better performances both in terms of relative bias and mean square error.

Description: Geometric dependency of Tibetan lakes on glacial runoff Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 729-768, 2013 Author(s): V. H. Phan, R. C. Lindenbergh, and M. Menenti The Tibetan plateau is an essential source of water for South-East Asia. The run-off from its ~ 34 000 glaciers, which occupy an area of ~ 50 000 km 2 , feed Tibetan lakes and major Asian rivers like Indus and Brahmaputra. Reported glacial shrinkage likely has its impact on the run-off. Unfortunately, accurate quantification of glacial changes is difficult over the high relief Tibetan plateau. However, it has been recently shown that it is possible to directly assess water level changes of a significant part of the ~ 900 Tibetan lakes greater than one square kilometer. This paper exploits different remote sensing products to explicitly create links between Tibetan glaciers, lakes and rivers. The results allow us first to differentiate between lakes with and without outlet. In addition, we introduce the notion of geometric dependency of a lake on glacial runoff, defined as the ratio between the total area of glaciers draining into a lake and the area of the catchment of the lake. These dependencies are determined for all ~ 900 Tibetan lakes. To obtain these results, we combine the so-called CAREERI glacier mask, a lake mask based on the MODIS MOD44W water product and the HydroSHEDS river network product derived from SRTM elevation data. Based on a drainage network analysis, all drainage links between glaciers and lakes are determined. The results show that 25.3% of the total glacier area directly drains into one of 244 Tibetan lakes. The results also give the geometric dependency of each lake on glacial runoff. For example, there are 10~lakes with direct glacial runoff from at least 240 km 2 of glacier. Three case studies, including one over the well-studied Nam Tso, demonstrate how the geometric dependency of a lake on glacial runoff can be directly linked to hydrological processes.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-dataset synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 769-805, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. C. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global datasets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual datasets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct datasets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 datasets. In the individual datasets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in-situ observations (diagnostic datasets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing and atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all datasets and three including only datasets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (1.15 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a decrease in this trend (−1.40 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all datasets) is 1.35 mm per day for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 34 406 km 3 per year for a total land area of 130 922 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET datasets, presents uncertainties between single datasets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET are crucial.

Description: Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2215-2242, 2013 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, H. L. Cloke, J. Thielen-del Pozo, S. Balabanova, J. Daňhelka, A. Vogelbacher, P. Salamon, I. Carrasco, A. J. Cabrera-Tordera, M. Corzo-Toscano, M. Garcia-Padilla, R. J. Garcia-Sanchez, C. Ardilouze, S. Jurela, B. Terek, A. Csik, J. Casey, G. Stankūnavičius, V. Ceres, E. Sprokkereef, J. Stam, E. Anghel, D. Vladikovic, C. Alionte Eklund, N. Hjerdt, H. Djerv, F. Holmberg, J. Nilsson, K. Nyström, M. Sušnik, M. Hazlinger, and M. Holubecka Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantages of HEPS are that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed; and that ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the technical aspects of the model systems themselves. However, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention; such as assessment of the full uncertainty in the forecast chain, multimodel approaches, robust forecast skill assessment and further collaboration and knowledge exchange between operational forecasters and the model development community. In light of limited resources we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement in operational HEPS.

Description: A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 yr The Cryosphere, 7, 303-319, 2013 Author(s): M. Frezzotti, C. Scarchilli, S. Becagli, M. Proposito, and S. Urbini Global climate models suggest that Antarctic snowfall should increase in a warming climate and mitigate rises in the sea level. Several processes affect surface mass balance (SMB), introducing large uncertainties in past, present and future ice sheet mass balance. To provide an extended perspective on the past SMB of Antarctica, we used 67 firn/ice core records to reconstruct the temporal variability in the SMB over the past 800 yr and, in greater detail, over the last 200 yr. Our SMB reconstructions indicate that the SMB changes over most of Antarctica are statistically negligible and that the current SMB is not exceptionally high compared to the last 800 yr. High-accumulation periods have occurred in the past, specifically during the 1370s and 1610s. However, a clear increase in accumulation of more than 10% has occurred in high SMB coastal regions and over the highest part of the East Antarctic ice divide since the 1960s. To explain the differences in behaviour between the coastal/ice divide sites and the rest of Antarctica, we suggest that a higher frequency of blocking anticyclones increases the precipitation at coastal sites, leading to the advection of moist air in the highest areas, whereas blowing snow and/or erosion have significant negative impacts on the SMB at windy sites. Eight hundred years of stacked records of the SMB mimic the total solar irradiance during the 13th and 18th centuries. The link between those two variables is probably indirect and linked to a teleconnection in atmospheric circulation that forces complex feedback between the tropical Pacific and Antarctica via the generation and propagation of a large-scale atmospheric wave train.

Description: Investigating uncertainty of climate change effect on entering runoff to Urmia Lake Iran Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2183-2214, 2013 Author(s): P. Razmara, A. R. Massah Bavani, H. Motiee, S. Torabi, and S. Lotfi The largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has been faced with a sharp decline in water surface in recent years. This decline is putting the survival of Urmia Lake at risk. Due to the fact that the water surface of lakes is affected directly by the entering runoff, herein we study the effect of climate change on the runoff entering Urmia Lake. Ten climate models among AOGCM-AR4 models in the future time period 2013–2040 will be used, under the emission scenarios A2 and B1. The downscaling method used in this research is the change factor-LARS method, while for simulating the runoff, the artificial neural network was applied. First, both the 30-yr and monthly scenarios of climate change, temperature, and precipitation of the region were generated and weighted by the Beta function (β). Then, the cumulative density function (cdf) for each month was computed. Calculating the scenarios of climate change and precipitation at levels of 25, 50, and 75% of cdf functions, and introducing them into LARS-wg model, the time series of temperature and precipitation in the region in the future time period were computed considering the uncertainty of climate variability. Then, introducing the time series of temperature and precipitation at different risk levels into the artificial neural network, the future runoff was generated. The findings illustrate a decrease of streamflow into Urmia Lake in scenario A2 at the three risk levels 25, 50, and 75% by, respectively, −21, −13, and −0.3%, and an increase by, respectively, 4.7, 13.8, and 18.9% in scenario B1. Also, scenario A2 with its prediction of a warm and dry climate suggests more critical conditions for the future compared to scenario B1 and its cool, humid climate.

Description: Development and comparative evaluation of a stochastic analog method to downscale daily GCM precipitation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2141-2181, 2013 Author(s): S. Hwang and W. D. Graham There are a number of statistical techniques that downscale coarse climate information from global circulation models (GCM). However, many of them do not reproduce the small-scale spatial variability of precipitation exhibited by the observed meteorological data which can be an important factor for predicting hydrologic response to climatic forcing. In this study a new downscaling technique (bias-correction and stochastic analog method, BCSA) was developed to produce stochastic realizations of bias-corrected daily GCM precipitation fields that preserve the spatial autocorrelation structure of observed daily precipitation sequences. This approach was designed to reproduce observed spatial and temporal variability as well as mean climatology. We used the BCSA method to downscale 4 GCM precipitation predictions from 1961 to 1999 over the state of Florida and compared the skill of the method to the results obtained with the commonly used bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) approach, bias-correction and constructed analog (BCCA) method, and a modified version of BCSD which reverses the order of spatial disaggregation and bias-correction (SDBC). Spatial and temporal statistics, transition probabilities, wet/dry spell lengths, spatial correlation indices, and variograms for wet (June through September) and dry (October through May) seasons were calculated for each method. Results showed that (1) BCCA underestimated mean climatology of daily precipitation while the BCSD, SDBC and BCSA methods accurately reproduced it, (2) the BCSD and BCCA methods underestimated temporal variability because of the interpolation and regression schemes used for downscaling and thus, did not reproduce daily precipitation standard deviations, transition probabilities or wet/dry spell lengths as well as the SDBC and BCSA methods, and (3) the BCSD, BCCA and SDBC methods underestimated spatial variability in precipitation resulting in under-prediction of spatial variance and over-prediction of spatial correlation, whereas the new stochastic technique (BCSA) accurately reproduces observed spatial statistics for both the wet and dry seasons. This study underscores the need to carefully select a downscaling method that reproduces all precipitation characteristics important for the hydrologic system under consideration if local hydrologic impacts of climate variability and change are going to be accurately predicted. For low-relief, rainfall-dominated watersheds where reproducing small-scale spatiotemporal precipitation variability is important, the BCSA method is recommended for use over the BCSD, BCCA, or SDBC methods.

Description: A coupled distributed hydrological-stability analysis on a terraced slope of Valtellina (northern Italy) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2287-2322, 2013 Author(s): C. Camera, T. Apuani, and M. Masetti The aim of this work was to understand and reproduce the hydrological dynamics of a slope, which was terraced using dry-stone retaining walls and its response to these processes in terms of stability at the slope scale. The slope studied is located in Valtellina (northern Italy), near the village of Tresenda, and in the last 30 yr has experienced several soil slip/debris flow events. In 1983 alone, such events caused the death of 18 people. Direct observation of the events of 1983 enabled the principal triggering cause of these events to be recognized in the formation of an overpressure at the base of a dry-stone wall, which caused its failure. To perform the analyses it is necessary to include the presence of dry-stone walls, considering the importance they have in influencing hydrological and geotechnical processes at the slope scale. This requires a very high resolution DEM (1 m × 1 m because the walls are from 0.60 m to 1.0 m wide) that has been appositely derived. A hydrogeological raster-based model, which takes into account both the unsaturated and saturated flux components, was applied. This was able to identify preferential infiltration zones and was rather precise in the prediction of maximum groundwater levels, providing valid input for the distributed stability analysis. Results of the hydrogeological model were used for the successive stability analysis. Sections of terrace were identified from the downslope base of a retaining wall to the top of the next downslope retaining wall. Within each section a global method of equilibrium was applied to determine its safety factor. The stability model showed a general tendency to overestimate the amount of unstable areas. An investigation of the causes of this unexpected behavior was, therefore, also performed in order to progressively improve the reliability of the model.

Description: Assessing parameter importance of the Common Land Model based on qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2243-2286, 2013 Author(s): J. D. Li, Q. Y. Duan, W. Gong, A. Z. Ye, Y. J. Dai, C. Y. Miao, Z. H. Di, C. Tong, and Y. W. Sun Proper specification of model parameters is critical to the performance of land surface models (LSMs). Due to high dimensionality and parameter interaction, estimating parameters of a LSM is a challenging task. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a tool that can screen out the most influential parameters on model outputs. In this study, we conducted parameter screening for six output fluxes for the Common Land Model: sensible heat, latent heat, upward longwave radiation, net radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture. A total of 40 adjustable parameters were considered. Five qualitative SA methods, including local, sum-of-trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, delta test and Morris methods, were compared. The proper sampling design and sufficient sample size necessary to effectively screen out the sensitive parameters were examined. We found that there are 2–8 sensitive parameters, depending on the output type, and about 400 samples are adequate to reliably identify the most sensitive parameters. We also employed a revised Sobol' sensitivity method to quantify the importance of all parameters. The total effects of the parameters were used to assess the contribution of each parameter to the total variances of the model outputs. The results confirmed that global SA methods can generally identify the most sensitive parameters effectively, while local SA methods result in type I errors (i.e. sensitive parameters labeled as insensitive) or type II errors (i.e. insensitive parameters labeled as sensitive). Finally, we evaluated and confirmed the screening results for their consistence with the physical interpretation of the model parameters.

Description: Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2353-2371, 2013 Author(s): H. Aksoy, N. E. Unal, E. Eris, and M. I. Yuce In 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, a stochastic model is generated using the measured monthly water level data of the lake. The model is derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the data set. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. For the multiple-trend, the time series is first divided into homogeneous segments by means of SEGMENTER, segmentation software. Four segments are found meaningful practically each fitted with a trend line. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning future development in surrounding areas of the lake.

Description: Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2323-2352, 2013 Author(s): E. Arnone, D. Pumo, F. Viola, L. V. Noto, and G. La Loggia Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test. Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for one hour rainfall duration. Instead, precipitation of long durations have exhibited a decreased trend. With regard to the spatial distribution, increase in short duration precipitation has been observed especially in stations located along the coastline; however, no clear and well-defined spatial pattern have been outlined by the results. Outcomes of analysis for daily rainfall properties have showed that heavy-torrential precipitation tends to be more frequent at regional scale, while light rainfall events exhibited a negative trend at some sites. Values of total annual precipitations confirmed a significant negative trend, mainly due to the reduction during the winter season.

Description: Future Arctic marine access: analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice The Cryosphere, 7, 321-332, 2013 Author(s): T. S. Rogers, J. E. Walsh, T. S. Rupp, L. W. Brigham, and M. Sfraga There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980–2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January–March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead–lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1–3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities.

Description: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 375-393, 2013 Author(s): P. Fretwell, H. D. Pritchard, D. G. Vaughan, J. L. Bamber, N. E. Barrand, R. Bell, C. Bianchi, R. G. Bingham, D. D. Blankenship, G. Casassa, G. Catania, D. Callens, H. Conway, A. J. Cook, H. F. J. Corr, D. Damaske, V. Damm, F. Ferraccioli, R. Forsberg, S. Fujita, Y. Gim, P. Gogineni, J. A. Griggs, R. C. A. Hindmarsh, P. Holmlund, J. W. Holt, R. W. Jacobel, A. Jenkins, W. Jokat, T. Jordan, E. C. King, J. Kohler, W. Krabill, M. Riger-Kusk, K. A. Langley, G. Leitchenkov, C. Leuschen, B. P. Luyendyk, K. Matsuoka, J. Mouginot, F. O. Nitsche, Y. Nogi, O. A. Nost, S. V. Popov, E. Rignot, D. M. Rippin, A. Rivera, J. Roberts, N. Ross, M. J. Siegert, A. M. Smith, D. Steinhage, M. Studinger, B. Sun, B. K. Tinto, B. C. Welch, D. Wilson, D. A. Young, C. Xiangbin, and A. Zirizzotti We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km 3 ) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.

Description: Variability and trends in Laptev Sea ice outflow between 1992–2011 The Cryosphere, 7, 349-363, 2013 Author(s): T. Krumpen, M. Janout, K. I. Hodges, R. Gerdes, F. Girard-Ardhuin, J. A. Hölemann, and S. Willmes Variability and trends in seasonal and interannual ice area export out of the Laptev Sea between 1992 and 2011 are investigated using satellite-based sea ice drift and concentration data. We found an average total winter (October to May) ice area transport across the northern and eastern Laptev Sea boundaries (NB and EB) of 3.48 × 10 5 km 2 . The average transport across the NB (2.87 × 10 5 km 2 ) is thereby higher than across the EB (0.61 × 10 5 km 2 ), with a less pronounced seasonal cycle. The total Laptev Sea ice area flux significantly increased over the last decades (0.85 × 10 5 km 2 decade −1 , p 〉 0.95), dominated by increasing export through the EB (0.55 × 10 5 km 2 decade −1 , p 〉 0.90), while the increase in export across the NB is smaller (0.3 × 10 5 km 2 decade −1 ) and statistically not significant. The strong coupling between across-boundary SLP gradient and ice drift velocity indicates that monthly variations in ice area flux are primarily controlled by changes in geostrophic wind velocities, although the Laptev Sea ice circulation shows no clear relationship with large-scale atmospheric indices. Also there is no evidence of increasing wind velocities that could explain the overall positive trends in ice export. The increased transport rates are rather the consequence of a changing ice cover such as thinning and/or a decrease in concentration. The use of a back-propagation method revealed that most of the ice that is incorporated into the Transpolar Drift is formed during freeze-up and originates from the central and western part of the Laptev Sea, while the exchange with the East Siberian Sea is dominated by ice coming from the central and southeastern Laptev Sea. Furthermore, our results imply that years of high ice export in late winter (February to May) have a thinning effect on the ice cover, which in turn preconditions the occurence of negative sea ice extent anomalies in summer.

Description: Retention and radiative forcing of black carbon in eastern Sierra Nevada snow The Cryosphere, 7, 365-374, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Sterle, J. R. McConnell, J. Dozier, R. Edwards, and M. G. Flanner When contaminated by absorbing particles, such as refractory black carbon (rBC) and continental dust, snow's albedo decreases and thus its absorption of solar radiation increases, thereby hastening snowmelt. For this reason, an understanding of rBC's affect on snow albedo, melt processes, and radiation balance is critical for water management, especially in a changing climate. Measurements of rBC in a sequence of snow pits and surface snow samples in the eastern Sierra Nevada of California during the snow accumulation and ablation seasons of 2009 show that concentrations of rBC were enhanced sevenfold in surface snow (~25 ng g –1 ) compared to bulk values in the snowpack (~3 ng g –1 ). Unlike major ions, which were preferentially released during the initial melt, rBC and continental dust were retained in the snow, enhancing concentrations well into late spring, until a final flush occurred during the ablation period. We estimate a combined rBC and continental dust surface radiative forcing of 20 to 40 W m −2 during April and May, with dust likely contributing a greater share of the forcing.

Description: Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2665-2696, 2013 Author(s): D. H. Yan, D. Wu, R. Huang, L. N. Wang, and G. Y. Yang According to the Chinese climate divisions and the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin digital elevation map, the basin is divided into seven sub-regions by means of cluster analysis of the basin meteorological stations using the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. Based on the daily precipitation data of 171 stations for the years 1961–2011, the drought frequency changes with different magnitudes are analyzed and the number of consecutive days without precipitation is used to identify the drought magnitudes. The first precipitation intensity after a drought period is analyzed with the Pearson-III frequency curve, then the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes is observed, as are the drought frequency changes for different years. The results of the study indicated the following: (1) the occurrence frequency of different drought level shows an overall increasing trend; there is no clear interdecadal change shown, but the spatial difference is significant. The occurrence frequencies of severe and extraordinary drought are higher on the North China Plain, Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, as well as on the Inner Mongolia and the Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin. (2) As the drought level increases, the probability of extraordinary rainstorm becomes lower, and the frequency of occurrence of spatial changes in different precipitation intensities vary. In the areas surrounding Bo Sea, the Shandong Peninsula and the Huai River downstream, as the drought level increases, the occurrence frequency of different precipitation intensities first shows a decreasing trend, which becomes an increasing trend when extraordinary drought occurs. In the middle and upper reaches of the Huai River basin, on the Hai River basin piedmont plain and Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia and Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin, the probability of the different precipitation intensities shows an overall decreasing trend. The mountains with high attitude and Tibetan Plateau are located at high altitudes where the variation of different precipitation intensities with the increase in drought level is relatively complex. (3) As the drought frequency increases, areas I, II and V which are located on the coastal and in the river basin are vulnerable to extreme precipitation processes; areas III, IV, VI and VII are located in the inland area where heavier precipitation is not likely to occur.

Description: Spatial distribution of stable water isotopes in alpine snow cover Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2641-2664, 2013 Author(s): N. Dietermann and M. Weiler The aim of this study was to analyze and predict the mean stable water isotopic composition of the snow cover at specific geographic locations and altitudes. In addition, the dependence of the isotopic composition of the entire snow cover on altitude was analyzed. Snow in four Swiss catchments was sampled at the end of the accumulation period in April 2010 and a second time in Mai 2010 and analyzed for stable isotope composition of 2 H and 18 O. The sampling was conducted at both south-facing and north-facing slopes at elevation differences of 100 m for a total altitude difference of approximately 1000 m. The observed variability of isotopic composition of the snow cover was analyzed with stepwise multiple linear regression models. The analysis indicated that there is only a limited altitude effect on the isotopic composition when considering all samples. This is due to the high variability of the isotopic composition of the precipitation during the winter months and, in particular in the case of south-facing slopes, an enrichment of heavy isotopes due to intermittent melting processes. This enrichment effect could clearly be observed in the samples which were taken later in the year. A small altitudinal gradient of the isotopic composition could only be observed at some north-facing slopes. However, the dependence of snow depth and the day of the year were significant predictor variables in all models. This study indicates the necessity to further study the variability of water isotopes in the snow cover to increase prediction for isotopic composition of snowmelt and hence increase model performance of residence time models in alpine areas and to better understand the accumulation processes and the sources of water in the snow cover of high mountains.

Description: Surface undulations of Antarctic ice streams tightly controlled by bedrock topography The Cryosphere, 7, 407-417, 2013 Author(s): J. De Rydt, G. H. Gudmundsson, H. F. J. Corr, and P. Christoffersen Full Stokes flow-line models predict that fast-flowing ice streams transmit information about their bedrock topography most efficiently to the surface for basal undulations with length scales between 1 and 20 times the mean ice thickness. This typical behaviour is independent of the precise values of the flow law and sliding law exponents, and should be universally observable. However, no experimental evidence for this important theoretical prediction has been obtained so far, hence ignoring an important test for the physical validity of current-day ice flow models. In our work we use recently acquired airborne radar data for the Rutford Ice Stream and Evans Ice Stream, and we show that the surface response of fast-flowing ice is highly sensitive to bedrock irregularities with wavelengths of several ice thicknesses. The sensitivity depends on the slip ratio, i.e. the ratio between mean basal sliding velocity and mean deformational velocity. We find that higher values of the slip ratio generally lead to a more efficient transfer, whereas the transfer is significantly dampened for ice that attains most of its surface velocity by creep. Our findings underline the importance of bedrock topography for ice stream dynamics on spatial scales up to 20 times the mean ice thickness. Our results also suggest that local variations in the flow regime and surface topography at this spatial scale cannot be explained by variations in basal slipperiness.

Description: Grounding line transient response in marine ice sheet models The Cryosphere, 7, 395-406, 2013 Author(s): A. S. Drouet, D. Docquier, G. Durand, R. Hindmarsh, F. Pattyn, O. Gagliardini, and T. Zwinger Marine ice-sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated within the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project), which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr) of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice-sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation), the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be broadly consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, still small differences appear for these latter variables, and they can lead to large discrepancies (〉 100%) observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level when cumulated over time. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice-sheet models in their ability to compute steady state configurations, our results question the capacity of these models to compute short-term reliable sea-level rise projections.

Description: A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2697-2741, 2013 Author(s): S. Piccolroaz, M. Toffolon, and B. Majone Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the single fluxes are hardly assessable over long time periods in the absence of high accuracy data. In order to address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically-based model to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion) to air temperature only. The model accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion) by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed formulations) to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water temperature measurements. In particular, the calibration of the parameters in a given case study allows one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the system. In fact, the air temperature variation implicitly contains proper information about the variation of other major processes, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable of the model. Furthermore, the model can be easily used to predict the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA – Canada) considering a 27-yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr used for calibration and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The results show a remarkable agreement with measurements, over the entire data period. The use of air temperature reconstructed by satellite imagery is also discussed.

Description: Hortonian overland flow closure relations in the Representative Elementary Watershed Framework evaluated with observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1769-1817, 2013 Author(s): E. Vannametee, D. Karssenberg, M. R. Hendriks, and M. F. P. Bierkens This paper presents an evaluation of the closure relation for Hortonian runoff that explicitly accounts for sub-REW process heterogeneity and scale effects, proposed in Vannametee et al. (2012). We apply the closure relation, which is embedded in an event-based rainfall-runoff model developed under the REW framework, to a 15 km 2 catchment in the French Alps. The scaling parameters in the closure relation are directly estimated using local and thus observable REW properties and rainstorm characteristics. Evaluation of the simulation results against the observed discharge indicates good performance in reproducing the hydrograph and discharge volume, even without calibration. The discharge prediction exhibits a significant improvement when the closure relation is calibrated with catchment-scale runoff. Our closure relation also yields better predictions when compared with results from a benchmark closure relation that does not consider scale effects. Calibration is done by only changing one of the REW observables, i.e. hydraulic conductivity, as that determines the scaling parameters, using a single prefactor for the entire catchment. This enables the calibration of the (semi)distributed modelling framework in this study to use only a single parameter. The results without calibration suggest that, in the absence of discharge observations, reasonable estimates of catchment-scale runoff responses are possibly based on observations at the sub-REW (i.e. plot) scale. Thus, our study provides a platform for the future development of low-dimensional and robust semi-distributed, physically-based discharge models in ungauged catchments.

Description: Thermal conductivity of snow measured by three independent methods and anisotropy considerations The Cryosphere, 7, 217-227, 2013 Author(s): F. Riche and M. Schneebeli The thermal conductivity of snow determines the temperature gradient, and by this, it has a direct effect on the rate of snow metamorphism. It is therefore a key property of snow. However, thermal conductivities measured with the transient needle probe and the steady-state, heat flux plate differ. In addition, the anisotropy of thermal conductivity plays an important role in the accuracy of thermal conductivity measurements. In this study, we investigated three independent methods to measure snow thermal conductivity and its anisotropy: a needle probe with a long heating time, a guarded heat flux plate, and direct numerical simulation at the microstructural level of the pore and ice structure. The three methods were applied to identical snow samples. We analyzed the consistency and the difference between these methods. As already shown in former studies, we observed a distinct difference between the anisotropy of thermal conductivity in small rounded grains and in depth hoar. Indeed, the anisotropy between vertical and horizontal thermal conductivity components ranges between 0.5–2. This can cause a difference in thermal conductivity measurements carried out with needle probes of up to –25 % to +25 % if the thermal conductivity is calculated only from a horizontally inserted needle probe. Based on our measurements and the comparison of the three methods studied here, the direct numerical simulation is the most reliable method, as the tensorial components of the thermal conductivity can be calculated and the corresponding microstructure is precisely known.

Description: Brief communication "Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet" The Cryosphere, 7, 241-248, 2013 Author(s): X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, C. Lang, A. Belleflamme, M. Erpicum, and H. Gallée Since 2007, there has been a series of surface melt records over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), continuing the trend towards increased melt observed since the end of the 1990's. The last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration for the last two decades. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June–July–August) mean temperature from reanalyses at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that ~70% of the 1993–2012 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones centred over the GrIS at the surface and at 500 hPa has doubled since the end of 1990's, which induces more frequent southerly warm air advection along the western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are twice as frequent as before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over GrIS and CAA cannot be considered as a long-term climate warming but are more a consequence of NAO variability affecting atmospheric heat transport. Although no global model from the CMIP5 database projects subsequent significant changes in NAO through this century, we cannot exclude the possibility that the observed NAO changes are due to global warming.

Description: Restoring mass conservation to shallow ice flow models over complex terrain The Cryosphere, 7, 229-240, 2013 Author(s): A. H. Jarosch, C. G. Schoof, and F. S. Anslow Numerical simulation of glacier dynamics in mountainous regions using zero-order, shallow ice models is desirable for computational efficiency so as to allow broad coverage. However, these models present several difficulties when applied to complex terrain. One such problem arises where steep terrain can spuriously lead to large ice fluxes that remove more mass from a grid cell than it originally contains, leading to mass conservation being violated. This paper describes a vertically integrated, shallow ice model using a second-order flux-limiting spatial discretization scheme that enforces mass conservation. An exact solution to ice flow over a bedrock step is derived for a given mass balance forcing as a benchmark to evaluate the model performance in such a difficult setting. This benchmark should serve as a useful test for modellers interested in simulating glaciers over complex terrain.

Description: The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1859-1896, 2013 Author(s): J. Hannaford, G. Buys, K. Stahl, and L. M. Tallaksen This study seeks to provide a long-term context for the growing number of trend analyses which have been applied to river flows in Europe. Most studies apply trend tests to fixed periods, in relatively short (generally 1960s–present) records. This study adopts an alternative "multi-temporal" approach, whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. The method is applied to 132 catchments with long (1932–2004) hydrometric records from northern and central Europe, which were chosen as they are minimally anthropogenically influenced and have good quality data. The catchments are first clustered into five regions, which are broadly homogenous in terms of interdecadal variability of annual mean flow. The multi-temporal trend approach was then applied to regional time series of different hydrological indicators (annual, monthly and high and low flows). The results reveal that the magnitude and even direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by interdecadal variability. Some short-term trends revealed in previous studies are shown to be unrepresentative of long-term change. For example, previous studies have identified post-1960 river flow decreases in southern and eastern Europe: in parts of eastern Europe, these trends are resilient to study period, extending back to the 1930s; in southern France, longer records show evidence of positive trends which reverse from the 1960s. Recent (post-1960) positive trends in northern Europe are also not present in longer records, due to decadal variations influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results provide a long-term reference for comparison with published and future studies. The multi-temporal approach advocated here is recommended for use in future trend assessments, to help contextualise short-term trends. Future work should also attempt to explain the decadal-scale variations that drive short-term trends, and thus develop more sophisticated methods for trend detection that take account of interdecadal variability and its drivers.

Description: Using a thermal-based two source energy balance model with time-differencing to estimate surface energy fluxes with day-night MODIS observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1897-1941, 2013 Author(s): R. Guzinski, M. C. Anderson, W. P. Kustas, H. Nieto, and I. Sandholt The Dual Temperature Difference (DTD) model, introduced by Norman et al. (2000), uses a two source energy balance modelling scheme driven by remotely sensed observations of diurnal changes in land surface temperature (LST) to estimate surface energy fluxes. By using a time differential temperature measurement as input, the approach reduces model sensitivity to errors in absolute temperature retrieval. The original formulation of the DTD required an early morning LST observation (approximately 1 h after sunrise) when surface fluxes are minimal, limiting application to data provided by geostationary satellites at sub-hourly temporal resolution. The DTD model has been applied primarily during the active growth phase of agricultural crops and rangeland vegetation grasses, and has not been rigorously evaluated during senescence or in forested ecosystems. In this paper we present modifications to the DTD model that enable applications using thermal observation from polar orbiting satellites, such as Terra and Aqua, with day and night overpass times over the area of interest. This allows the application of the DTD model in high latitude regions where large viewing angles preclude the use of geostationary satellites, and also exploits the higher spatial resolution provided by polar orbiting satellites. A method for estimating nocturnal surface fluxes and a scheme for estimating the fraction of green vegetation are developed and evaluated. Modification for green vegetation fraction leads to significantly improved estimation of the heat fluxes from the vegetation canopy during senescence and in forests. Land-cover based modifications to the Priestley–Taylor scheme, used to estimate transpiration fluxes, are explored based on prior findings for conifer forests. When the modified DTD model is run with LST measurements acquired with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, generally satisfactory agreement with field measurements is obtained for a number of ecosystems in Denmark and the United States. Finally, regional maps of energy fluxes are produced for the Danish Hydrological ObsErvatory (HOBE) in western Denmark, indicating realistic patterns based on land use.

Description: An assessment of land use change impacts on the water resources of the Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of Pune, India Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1943-1985, 2013 Author(s): P. D. Wagner, S. Kumar, and K. Schneider Land use changes are altering the hydrologic system and have potentially large impacts on water resources. Rapid socio-economic development drives land use change. This is particularly true in the case of the rapidly developing city of Pune, India. The present study aims at analyzing past land use changes between 1989 and 2009 and their impacts on the water balance in the Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of Pune. Land use changes were identified from three multitemporal land use classifications for the cropping years 1989/1990, 2000/2001, and 2009/2010. The hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration. Two model runs were performed and compared using the land use classifications of 1989/1990 and 2009/2010. The main land use changes were identified as an increase of urban area from 5.1% to 10.1% and cropland from 9.7% to 13.5% of the catchment area during the 20 yr period. Urbanization was mainly observed in the eastern part and conversion to cropland in the mid-northern part of the catchment. At the catchment scale we found that the impacts of these land use changes on the water balance cancel each other. However, at the sub-basin scale urbanization led to an increase of the water yield by up to 7.6%, and a similar decrease of evapotranspiration, whereas the increase of cropland resulted in an increase of evapotranspiration by up to 5.9%.

Description: Borehole temperatures reveal a changed energy budget at Mill Island, East Antarctica, over recent decades The Cryosphere, 7, 263-273, 2013 Author(s): J. L. Roberts, A. D. Moy, T. D. van Ommen, M. A. J. Curran, A. P. Worby, I. D. Goodwin, and M. Inoue A borehole temperature record from the Mill Island (East Antarctica) icecap reveals a large surface warming signal manifested as a 0.75 K temperature difference over the approximate 100 m depth in the zone of zero annual amplitude below the seasonally varying zone. The temperature profile shows a break in gradient around 49 m depth, which we model with inverse numerical simulations, indicating that surface warming started around the austral summer of 1980/81 AD ±5 yr. This warming of approximately 0.37 K per decade is consistent with trends seen in both instrumental and other reconstructions for Antarctica and, therefore, suggests that regional- rather than local-scale processes are largely responsible. Alteration of the surface energy budget arising from changes in radiation balances due to local cloud, the amount of liquid deposition and local air temperatures associated with altered air/sea exchanges also potentially plays a role at this location due to the proximity of the Shackleton Ice Shelf and sea-ice zone.

Description: On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1987-2013, 2013 Author(s): S. Shukla, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier Global seasonal hydrologic prediction is crucial to mitigating the impacts of droughts and floods, especially in the developing world. Hydrologic prediction skill at seasonal lead times (i.e. 1–6 months) comes from knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs – primarily the state of initial soil moisture and snow) and seasonal climate forecast skill (FS). In this study we quantify the contributions of IHCs and FS to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill globally on a relative basis throughout the year. We do so by conducting two model-based experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, one based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and another based on Reverse-ESP (rESP), both for a 47 yr reforecast period (1961–2007). We compare cumulative runoff (CR), soil moisture (SM) and snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts obtained from each experiment with a control simulation forced with observed atmospheric forcings over the reforecast period and estimate the ratio of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of both experiments for each forecast initialization date and lead time. We find that in general, the contributions of IHCs are greater than the contribution of FS over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere during the forecast period starting in October and January (April and July). Over snow dominated regions in the Northern Hemisphere the IHCs dominate the CR forecast skill for up to 6 months lead time during the forecast period starting in April. Based on our findings we argue that despite the limited FS (mainly for precipitation) better estimates of the IHCs could lead to improvement in the current level of seasonal hydrologic forecast skill over many regions of the globe at least during some parts of the year.

Description: Analysis of ice phenology of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau from MODIS data The Cryosphere, 7, 287-301, 2013 Author(s): J. Kropáček, F. Maussion, F. Chen, S. Hoerz, and V. Hochschild The Tibetan Plateau includes a large system of endorheic (closed basin) lakes. Lake ice phenology, i.e. the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover may provide valuable information about climate variations in this region. The ice phenology of 59 large lakes on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day composite data for the period from 2001 to 2010. Ice cover duration appears to have a high variability in the studied region due to both climatic and local factors. Mean values for the duration of ice cover were calculated for three groups of lakes defined by clustering, resulting in relatively compact geographic regions. In each group several lakes showed anomalies in ice cover duration in the studied period. Possible reasons for such anomalous behaviour are discussed. Furthermore, many lakes do not freeze up completely during some seasons. This was confirmed by inspection of high resolution optical data. Mild winter seasons, large water volume and/or high salinity are the most likely explanations. Trends in the ice cover duration derived by linear regression for all the studied lakes show a high variation in space. A correlation of ice phenology variables with parameters describing climatic and local conditions showed a high thermal dependency of the ice regime. It appears that the freeze-up tends to be more thermally determined than break-up for the studied lakes.

Description: Cyanobacterial and microcystins dynamics following the application of hydrogen peroxide to waste stabilisation ponds Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2067-2088, 2013 Author(s): D. J. Barrington, A. Ghadouani, and G. N. Ivey Cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins are a risk to human and ecological health, and a hindrance to biological wastewater treatment. This study investigated the use of hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) for the removal of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins from within waste stabilization ponds (WSPs). The daily dynamics of cyanobacteria and microcystins (a commonly occurring cyanotoxin) were examined following the addition of H 2 O 2 to wastewater within both the laboratory and at the full-scale within a WSP. Hydrogen peroxide treatment at concentrations ≥ 10 −4 g H 2 O 2 μg −1 of total phytoplankton chlorophyll a led to the death of cyanobacteria, in turn releasing intracellular microcystins to the dissolved state. In the full-scale trial, dissolved microcystins were then degraded to negligible concentrations by H 2 O 2 and environmental processes within five days. A shift in the phytoplankton assemblage towards beneficial chlorophyta species was also observed within days of H 2 O 2 addition. However, within weeks, the chlorophyta population was significantly reduced by the re-establishment of toxic cyanobacterial species. This re-establishment was likely due to the inflow of cyanobacteria from ponds earlier in the treatment train, suggesting that whilst H 2 O 2 may be a suitable short-term management technique, it must be coupled with control over inflows if it is to improve WSP performance in the longer term.

Description: Paleo ice flow and subglacial meltwater dynamics in Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica The Cryosphere, 7, 249-262, 2013 Author(s): F. O. Nitsche, K. Gohl, R. D. Larter, C.-D. Hillenbrand, G. Kuhn, J. A. Smith, S. Jacobs, J. B. Anderson, and M. Jakobsson Increasing evidence for an elaborate subglacial drainage network underneath modern Antarctic ice sheets suggests that basal meltwater has an important influence on ice stream flow. Swath bathymetry surveys from previously glaciated continental margins display morphological features indicative of subglacial meltwater flow in inner shelf areas of some paleo ice stream troughs. Over the last few years several expeditions to the eastern Amundsen Sea embayment (West Antarctica) have investigated the paleo ice streams that extended from the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. A compilation of high-resolution swath bathymetry data from inner Pine Island Bay reveals details of a rough seabed topography including several deep channels that connect a series of basins. This complex basin and channel network is indicative of meltwater flow beneath the paleo-Pine Island and Thwaites ice streams, along with substantial subglacial water inflow from the east. This meltwater could have enhanced ice flow over the rough bedrock topography. Meltwater features diminish with the onset of linear features north of the basins. Similar features have previously been observed in several other areas, including the Dotson-Getz Trough (western Amundsen Sea embayment) and Marguerite Bay (SW Antarctic Peninsula), suggesting that these features may be widespread around the Antarctic margin and that subglacial meltwater drainage played a major role in past ice-sheet dynamics.

Description: How representative are instantaneous evaporative fraction measurements for daytime fluxes? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2015-2028, 2013 Author(s): J. Peng, M. Borsche, Y. Liu, and A. Loew Sun synchronous optical remote sensing is a promising technique to provide instantaneous ET (Evapotranspiration) estimates during satellite overpass. The common approach to extrapolate the instantaneous estimates to values for daily or longer periods relies on the assumption that the EF (Evaporative Fraction, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to surface available energy) remains nearly constant during daytime. However, there is still no consensus on the validity of the self preservation of EF. We used FLUXNET (a global network of eddy covariance stations) measurements to examine this self preservation, and the conditions under which it can hold. It is found here that the instantaneous EF could represent daytime EF under clear-sky conditions especially between 11:00 and 14:00 LT for all the stations. However, the EF is more unstable during cloudy skies. The increase in cloud cover would result in the increase in the variability of EF during daytime. Future works will focus on the evaluation of this EF constant assumption using real remote sensing data over different surface and climate conditions.

Description: Data compression to define information content of hydrological time series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2029-2065, 2013 Author(s): S. V. Weijs, N. van de Giesen, and M. B. Parlange When inferring models from hydrological data or calibrating hydrological models, we might be interested in the information content of those data to quantify how much can potentially be learned from them. In this work we take a perspective from (algorithmic) information theory (AIT) to discuss some underlying issues regarding this question. In the information-theoretical framework, there is a strong link between information content and data compression. We exploit this by using data compression performance as a time series analysis tool and highlight the analogy to information content, prediction, and learning (understanding is compression). The analysis is performed on time series of a set of catchments, searching for the mechanisms behind compressibility. We discuss both the deeper foundation from algorithmic information theory, some practical results and the inherent difficulties in answering the question: "How much information is contained in this data?". The conclusion is that the answer to this question can only be given once the following counter-questions have been answered: (1) Information about which unknown quantities? (2) What is your current state of knowledge/beliefs about those quantities? Quantifying information content of hydrological data is closely linked to the question of separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty and quantifying maximum possible model performance, as addressed in current hydrological literature. The AIT perspective teaches us that it is impossible to answer this question objectively, without specifying prior beliefs. These beliefs are related to the maximum complexity one is willing to accept as a law and what is considered as random.

Description: Detection of global runoff changes: results from observations and CMIP5 experiments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2117-2140, 2013 Author(s): R. Alkama, L. Marchand, A. Ribes, and B. Decharme This paper assesses the detectability of changes in global streamflow. First, a statistical detection method is applied to observed (no missing data) and reconstructed (gaps are filled in order to cover a larger area) streamflow. Observations show no change over the 1958–1992 period. Further, extension to 2004 over the same catchment areas using reconstructed data does not provide evidence of a significant change. Conversely, a significant change is found in reconstructed streamflow when a larger area is considered. These results suggest that changes in global streamflow are still unclear. Next, changes in streamflow as simulated by models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the historical and future RCP 8.5 scenario are investigated. Most CMIP5 models are found to simulate the climatological streamflow reasonably well, except over South America and Africa. Change becomes significant between 2016 and 2040 for all but three models.

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 1819-1858, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we use two methods (SCEM-UA and SODA) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated observations. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil-bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We further show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: A recent tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice cover: abrupt and persistent increase in the seasonal cycle since 2007 The Cryosphere, 7, 275-286, 2013 Author(s): V. N. Livina and T. M. Lenton There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea ice has already passed a "tipping point", or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation, because it is highly reversible in models. However, a broader definition of a "tipping point" also includes other abrupt, non-linear changes that are neither bifurcations nor necessarily irreversible. Examination of satellite data for Arctic sea-ice area reveals an abrupt increase in the amplitude of seasonal variability in 2007 that has persisted since then. We identified this abrupt transition using recently developed methods that can detect multi-modality in time-series data and sometimes forewarn of bifurcations. When removing the mean seasonal cycle (up to 2008) from the satellite data, the residual sea-ice fluctuations switch from uni-modal to multi-modal behaviour around 2007. We originally interpreted this as a bifurcation in which a new lower ice cover attractor appears in deseasonalised fluctuations and is sampled in every summer–autumn from 2007 onwards. However, this interpretation is clearly sensitive to how the seasonal cycle is removed from the raw data, and to the presence of continental land masses restricting winter–spring ice fluctuations. Furthermore, there was no robust early warning signal of critical slowing down prior to the hypothesized bifurcation. Early warning indicators do however show destabilization of the summer–autumn sea-ice cover since 2007. Thus, the bifurcation hypothesis lacks consistent support, but there was an abrupt and persistent increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice cover in 2007, which we describe as a (non-bifurcation) "tipping point". Our statistical methods detect this "tipping point" and its time of onset. We discuss potential geophysical mechanisms behind it, which should be the subject of further work with process-based models.

Description: Application of a model-based rainfall-runoff database as efficient tool for flood risk management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 2089-2115, 2013 Author(s): L. Brocca, S. Liersch, F. Melone, T. Moramarco, and M. Volk A framework for a comprehensive synthetic rainfall-runoff database was developed to study catchment response to a variety of rainfall events. The framework supports effective flood risk assessment and management and implements simple approaches. It consists of three flexible components, a rainfall generator, a continuous rainfall-runoff model, and a database management system. The system has been developed and tested at two gauged river sections along the upper Tiber River (central Italy). One of the main questions was to investigate how simple such approaches can be without impairing the quality of the results. The rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff on the basis of a large number of design rainfall events. The resulting rainfall-runoff database can be used as an effective tool to assess possible streamflow situations assuming different rainfall volumes for the previous and the following days. The application to the study site shows that magnitudes of real flood events were appropriately captured by the database within an uncertainty range. Further work should be dedicated to introducing a component for taking account of the actual temporal distribution of rainfall events into the stochastic rainfall generator.

Description: Analysis of the snow-atmosphere energy balance during wet-snow instabilities and implications for avalanche prediction The Cryosphere, 7, 205-216, 2013 Author(s): C. Mitterer and J. Schweizer Wet-snow avalanches are notoriously difficult to predict; their formation mechanism is poorly understood since in situ measurements representing the thermal and mechanical evolution are difficult to perform. Instead, air temperature is commonly used as a predictor variable for days with high wet-snow avalanche danger – often with limited success. As melt water is a major driver of wet-snow instability and snow melt depends on the energy input into the snow cover, we computed the energy balance for predicting periods with high wet-snow avalanche activity. The energy balance was partly measured and partly modelled for virtual slopes at different elevations for the aspects south and north using the 1-D snow cover model SNOWPACK. We used measured meteorological variables and computed energy balance and its components to compare wet-snow avalanche days to non-avalanche days for four consecutive winter seasons in the surroundings of Davos, Switzerland. Air temperature, the net shortwave radiation and the energy input integrated over 3 or 5 days showed best results in discriminating event from non-event days. Multivariate statistics, however, revealed that for better predicting avalanche days, information on the cold content of the snowpack is necessary. Wet-snow avalanche activity was closely related to periods when large parts of the snowpack reached an isothermal state (0 °C) and energy input exceeded a maximum value of 200 kJ m −2 in one day, or the 3-day sum of positive energy input was larger than 1.2 MJ m −2 . Prediction accuracy with measured meteorological variables was as good as with computed energy balance parameters, but simulated energy balance variables accounted better for different aspects, slopes and elevations than meteorological data.

Description: Effect of higher-order stress gradients on the centennial mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet The Cryosphere, 7, 183-199, 2013 Author(s): J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts We use a three-dimensional thermo-mechanically coupled model of the Greenland ice sheet to assess the effects of marginal perturbations on volume changes on centennial timescales. The model is designed to allow for five ice dynamic formulations using different approximations to the force balance. The standard model is based on the shallow ice approximation for both ice deformation and basal sliding. A second model version relies on a higher-order Blatter/Pattyn type of core that resolves effects from gradients in longitudinal stresses and transverse horizontal shearing, i.e. membrane-like stresses. Together with three intermediate model versions, these five versions allow for gradually more dynamic feedbacks from membrane stresses. Idealised experiments are conducted on various resolutions to compare the time-dependent response to imposed accelerations at the marine ice front. If such marginal accelerations are to have an appreciable effect on total mass loss on a century timescale, a fast mechanism to transmit such perturbations inland is required. While the forcing is independent of the model version, inclusion of direct horizontal coupling allows the initial speed-up to reach several tens of kilometres inland. Within one century, effects from gradients in membrane stress alter the inland signal propagation and transmit additional dynamic thinning to the ice sheet interior. But the centennial overall volume loss differs only by some percents from the standard model, as the dominant response is a diffusive inland propagation of geometric changes. For the experiments considered, this volume response is even attenuated by direct horizontal coupling. The reason is a faster adjustment of the sliding regime by instant stress transmission in models that account for the effect of membrane stresses. Ultimately, horizontal coupling decreases the reaction time to perturbations at the ice sheet margin. These findings suggest that for modelling the mass evolution of a large-scale ice sheet, effects from diffusive geometric adjustments dominate effects from successively more complete dynamic approaches.