ALBERT

Description: Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5701-5732, 2011 Author(s): J. E. Horn and T. Harter Onsite wastewater treatment systems such as septic systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25–30 % of households are served by a septic system and a private drinking water well. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. Particularly in areas with small lots, thus a high septic system density, these typically shallow wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Typically, mass balance approaches are used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of the aquifer. In this study, we estimate the probability of a well pumping partially septic system leachate. A detailed groundwater and transport model is used to calculate the capture zone of a typical drinking water well. A spatial probability analysis is performed to assess the probability that a capture zone overlaps with a septic system drainfield depending on aquifer properties, lot and drainfield size. We show that a high septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We conclude that mass balances calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances which experience limited attenuation, and those being harmful even in low concentrations.

Description: Use of ENVISAT ASAR Global Monitoring Mode to complement optical data in the mapping of rapid broad-scale flooding in Pakistan Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5769-5809, 2011 Author(s): D. O'Grady, M. Leblanc, and D. Gillieson Envisat ASAR Global Monitoring Mode (GM) data are used to produce maps of the extent of the flooding in Pakistan which are made available to the rapid response effort within 24 h of acquisition. The high temporal frequency and independence of the data from cloud-free skies makes GM data a viable tool for mapping flood waters during those periods where optical satellite data is unavailable, which may be crucial to rapid response disaster planning, where thousands of lives are affected. Image differencing techniques are used, with pre-flood baseline image backscatter values being deducted from target values to eliminate regions with a permanent flood-like radar response due to volume scattering and attenuation, and to highlight the low response caused by specular reflection by open flood water. The effect of local incidence angle on the received signal is mitigated by ensuring that the deducted image is acquired from the same orbit track as the target image. Poor separability of the water class with land in areas beyond the river channels is tackled using a region-growing algorithm which seeks threshold-conformance from seed pixels at the center of the river channels. The resultant mapped extents are tested against MODIS SWIR data where available, with encouraging results.

Description: Soil weathering rates in 21 catchments of the Canadian Shield Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5743-5768, 2011 Author(s): D. Houle, P. Lamoureux, N. Bélanger, M. Bouchard, C. Gagnon, S. Couture, and A. Bouffard Soil mineral weathering represents an essential source of nutrient base cation (Ca, Mg and K) for forest growth in addition to provide a buffering power against precipitation acidity for soils and surface waters. Weathering rates of base cations were obtained for 21 catchments located within the temperate and the boreal forest of the Canadian Shield with the geochemical model PROFILE. Weathering rates ranged from 0.58 to 4.46 kmol c ha −1 yr −1 and their spatial variation within the studied area was mostly in agreement with spatial variations in soil mineralogy. Weathering rates of Ca and Mg were significantly correlated ( r = 0.80 and 0.64) with their respective lake concentrations. Weathering rates of K and Na did not correlate with lake concentrations of K and Na. The modeled weathering rates for each catchment were also compared with estimations of net catchment exportations. The result show that modeled weathering rates of Ca were not significantly different than the net catchment exportations while modeled weathering rates of Mg were higher by 51 %. Larger differences were observed for K and Na weathering rates that were significantly different than net catchment exportations being 6.9 and 2.2 times higher than net exportations, respectively. The results for K were expected given its high reactivity with biotic compartments and suggest that most of the K produced by weathering reactions was retained within soil catchments and/or above ground biomass. This explanation does not apply to Na, however, which is a conservative element in forest ecosystems because of the insignificant needs of Na for soil microorganisms and above ground vegetations. It raises concern about the liability of the PROFILE model to provide reliable values of Na weathering rates. Overall, we concluded that the PROFILE model is powerful enough to reproduce spatial geographical gradients in weathering rates for relatively large areas as well as adequately predict absolute weathering rates values for the sum of base cations, Ca and Mg.

Description: The role of catchment classification in rainfall-runoff modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6113-6153, 2011 Author(s): Y. He, A. Bárdossy, and E. Zehe A sound catchment classification scheme is a fundamental step towards improved catchment hydrology science and prediction in ungauged basins. Two categories of catchment classification methods are presented in the paper. The first one is based directly on physiographic properties and climatic conditions over a catchment and regarded as a Linnaean type or natural classification scheme. The second one is based on numerical clustering and regionalization methods and considered as a statistical or arbitrary classification scheme. This paper reviews each category including what has been done since recognition of the intrinsic value of catchment classification, what is being done in the current research, as well as what is to be done in the future.

Description: Infiltration-soil moisture redistribution under natural conditions: experimental evidence as a guideline for realizing simulation models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6199-6225, 2011 Author(s): R. Morbidelli, C. Corradini, C. Saltalippi, A. Flammini, and E. Rossi The evolution in time, t , of the experimental soil moisture vertical profile under natural conditions is investigated in order to address the corresponding simulation modelling. The measurements were conducted in a plot with a bare silty loam soil. The soil water content, θ, was continuously monitored at different depths, z , using a Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) system. For each profile four buriable three-rod waveguides were inserted horizontally at different depths (5, 15, 25 and 35 cm). In addition, we used sensors of air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, evaporation and rain as supports for the application of selected simulation models, as well as for the detection of elements leading to their improvement. The results indicate that, under natural conditions, very different trends of the θ( z , t ) function can be observed in the given fine-textured soil, where the formation of a sealing layer over the parent soil requires an adjustment of the simulation modelling commonly used for hydrological applications. In particular, because of the considerable variations in the shape of the moisture content vertical profile as a function of time, a generalization of the existing models should incorporate a representation of the variability in time of the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost soil. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the observed shape of θ( z ) can be appropriately reproduced by adopting this approach, however the observed rainfall rate and the occurrence of freeze-thaw cycles with high soil moisture contents have to be explicitly incorporated.

Description: Sand box experiments to evaluate the influence of subsurface temperature probe design on temperature based water flux calculation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6155-6197, 2011 Author(s): M. Munz, S. E. Oswald, and C. Schmidt Quantification of subsurface water fluxes based on the one dimensional solution to the heat transport equation depends on the accuracy of measured subsurface temperatures. The influence of temperature probe setup on the accuracy of vertical water flux calculation was systematically evaluated in this experimental study. Four temperature probe setups were installed into a sand box experiment to measure temporal highly resolved vertical temperature profiles under controlled water fluxes in the range of ±1.3 m d −1 . Pass band filtered time series provided amplitude and phase of the diurnal temperature signal varying with depth depending on water flux. Amplitude ratios of setups directly installed into the saturated sediment significantly varied with sand box hydraulic gradients. Amplitude ratios provided an accurate basis for the analytical calculation of water flow velocities, which matched measured flow velocities. Calculated flow velocities were sensitive to thermal properties of saturated sediment and to probe distance, but insensitive to thermal dispersivity equal to solute dispersivity. Amplitude ratios of temperature probe setups indirectly installed into piezometer pipes were influenced by thermal exchange processes within the pipes and significantly varied with water flux direction only. Temperature time lags of small probe distances of all setups were found to be insensitive to vertical water flux.

Description: The use of LIDAR as a data source for digital elevation models – a study of the relationship between the accuracy of digital elevation models and topographical attributes in northern peatlands Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5497-5522, 2011 Author(s): A. Hasan, P. Pilesjö, and A. Persson It is important to study the factors affecting estimates of wetness since wetness is crucial in climate change studies. The availability of digital elevation models (DEMs) generated with high resolution data is increasing, and their use is expanding. LIDAR earth elevation data have been used to create several DEMs with different resolutions, using various interpolation parameters, in order to compare the models with collected surface data. The aim is to study the accuracy of DEMs in relation to topographical attributes such as slope and drainage area, which are normally used to estimate the wetness in terms of topographic wetness indices. Evaluation points were chosen from the high-resolution LIDAR dataset at a maximum distance of 10 mm from the cell center for each DEM resolution studied, 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 30 and 90 m. The interpolation method used was inverse distance weighting method with four search radii: 1, 2, 5 and 10 m. The DEM was evaluated using a quantile-quantile test and the normalized median absolute deviation. The accuracy of the estimated elevation for different slopes was tested using the DEM with 0.5 m resolution. Drainage areas were investigated at three resolutions, with coinciding evaluation points. The ability of the model to generate the drainage area at each resolution was obtained by pairwise comparison of three data subsets. The results show that the accuracy of the elevations obtained with the DEM model are the same for different resolutions, but vary with search radius. The accuracy of the values (NMAD of errors) varies from 29.7 mm to 88.9 mm, being higher for flatter areas. It was also found that the accuracy of the drainage area is highly dependent on DEM resolution. Coarse resolution yielded larger estimates of the drainage area but lower slope values. This may lead to overestimation of wetness values when using a coarse resolution DEM.

Description: Multivariate design via Copulas Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5523-5558, 2011 Author(s): G. Salvadori, C. De Michele, and F. Durante Calculating return periods and design quantiles in a multivariate framework is a difficult problem: essentially, this is due to the lack of a natural total order in multi-dimensional Euclidean spaces. This paper tries to make the issue clear. First, we outline a possible way to introduce a coherent notion of multivariate total order, and discuss its consequences on the calculation of multivariate return period: in particular, the latter is based on Copulas and the Kendall's measure, which provides a consistent notion of multivariate quantile. Secondly, we introduce several approaches for the identification of critical design events: these latter quantities are of utmost importance in practical applications, but their calculation is yet limited, due to the lack of a suitable theoretical setting where to embed the problem. Throughout the paper, a case study involving the behavior of a dam is used to illustrate the new concepts outlined in this work.

Description: Influence of initial heterogeneities and recharge limitations on the evolution of aperture distributions in carbonate aquifers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5631-5666, 2011 Author(s): B. Hubinger and S. Birk Karst aquifers evolve where the dissolution of soluble rocks causes the enlargement of discrete pathways along fractures or bedding planes, thus creating highly conductive solution conduits. To identify general interrelations between hydrogeological conditions and the properties of the evolving conduit systems the aperture-size frequency distributions resulting from generic models of conduit evolution are analysed. For this purpose, a process-based numerical model coupling flow and rock dissolution is employed. Initial protoconduits are represented by tubes with log-normally distributed aperture sizes with a mean of 0.5 mm. Apertures are spatially uncorrelated and widen up to the metre range due to dissolution by chemically aggressive waters. Several examples of conduit development are examined focussing on influences of the initial heterogeneity and the available amount of recharge. If the available recharge is sufficiently high the evolving conduits compete for flow and those with large apertures and high hydraulic gradients attract more and more water. As a consequence, the positive feedback between increasing flow and dissolution causes the breakthrough of a conduit pathway connecting the recharge and discharge sides of the modelling domain. Under these competitive flow conditions dynamically stable bimodal aperture distributions are found to evolve, i.e. a certain percentage of tubes continues to be enlarged while the remaining tubes stay small-sized. The percentage of strongly widened tubes is found to be independent of the breakthrough time and decreases with increasing heterogeneity of the initial apertures and decreasing amount of available water. If the competition for flow is suppressed because the availability of water is strongly limited breakthrough of a conduit pathway is inhibited and the conduit pathways widen very slowly. The resulting aperture distributions are found to be unimodal covering some orders of magnitudes in size. Under these suppressed flow conditions the entire range of apertures continues to be enlarged. Hence, the number of tubes reaching aperture sizes in the order of centimetres or decimetres continues to increase with time and in the long term may exceed the number of large-sized tubes evolving under competitive flow conditions. This suggests that conduit development under suppressed flow conditions may significantly enhance the permeability of the formation e.g. in deep-seated carbonate settings.

Description: Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 1: Convective vs. stratiform precipitation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5605-5629, 2011 Author(s): M. Ignaccolo and C. De Michele We investigate the variability of the instantaneous distribution shape of the renormalized drop diameter making use of the third order central moment: the skewness . Disdrometer data, collected at Darwin Australia, are considered either as whole or as divided in convective and stratiform precipitation intervals. We show that in all cases the distribution of the skewness is strongly peaked around 0.64. This allows to identify a most common distribution of renormalized drop diameters and two main variations, one with larger and one with smaller skewness. The distributions' shapes are independent from the stratiform vs. convective classification.

Description: The sensitivity of land emissivity estimates from AMSR-E at C and X bands to surface properties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5667-5699, 2011 Author(s): H. Norouzi, M. Temimi, W. B. Rossow, C. Pearl, M. Azarderakhsh, and R. Khanbilvardi Microwave observations at low frequencies exhibit more sensitivity to surface and subsurface properties with little interference from the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to develop a global land emissivity product using passive microwave observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and to investigate its sensitivity to land surface properties. The developed product complements existing land emissivity products from SSM/I and AMSU by adding land emissivity estimates at two lower frequencies, 6.9 and 10.65 GHz (C- and X-band, respectively). Observations at these low frequencies penetrate deeper into the soil layer. Ancillary data used in the analysis, such as surface skin temperature and cloud mask, are obtained from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Atmospheric properties are obtained from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations to determine the small upwelling and downwelling atmospheric emissions as well as the atmospheric transmission. A sensitivity test confirms the small effect of the atmosphere but shows that skin temperature accuracy can significantly affect emissivity estimates. Retrieved emissivities at C- and X-bands and their polarization differences exhibit similar patterns of variation with changes in land cover type, soil moisture, and vegetation density as seen at SSM/I-like frequencies (Ka and Ku bands). The emissivity maps from AMSR-E at these higher frequencies agree reasonably well with the existing SSM/I-based product. The inherent but small discrepancy introduced by the difference between SSM/I and AMSR-E frequencies and incidence angles has been examined and found to be small. Large differences between emissivity estimates from ascending and descending overpasses were found at the lower frequencies due to the inconsistency between the thermal IR skin temperatures and passive microwave brightness temperatures which can come from below the surface. This issue must be addressed in future studies to improve the accuracy of the emissivity estimates at lower frequencies.

Description: Influence of soil parameters on the skewness coefficient of the annual maximum flood peaks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5559-5604, 2011 Author(s): A. Gioia, V. Iacobellis, S. Manfreda, and M. Fiorentino Understanding the spatial variability of key parameters of flood probability distributions represents a strategy to provide insights on hydrologic similarity and building probabilistic models able to reduce the uncertainty in flood prediction in ungauged basins. In this work, we exploited the theoretically derived distribution of floods TCIF (Gioia et al., 2008), based on two different threshold mechanisms associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events. The model is based on the hypotheses that ordinary floods are generally due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered when severe rainfalls exceed a storage threshold over a large portion of the basin. Within this scheme, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to analyze the effects of climatic and geomorphologic parameters on the skewness coefficient. In particular, the analysis was conducted investigating the influence on flood distribution of physical factors such as rainfall intensity, soil infiltration capacity, and basin area, in order to provide insights in catchment classification and process conceptualization.

Description: Technical note: Towards a continuous classification of climate using bivariate colour mapping Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5733-5742, 2011 Author(s): A. J. Teuling Climate is often defined in terms of discrete classes. Here I use bivariate colour mapping to show that the global distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classes can largely be reproduced by combining the simple means of two key states of the climate system (i.e., air temperature and relative humidity). This allows for a classification that is not only continuous in space, but can be applied at and transferred between timescales ranging from minutes to decades.

Description: The importance of parameter resampling for soil moisture data assimilation into hydrologic models using the particle filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5849-5890, 2011 Author(s): D. A. Plaza, R. De Keyser, G. J. M. De Lannoy, L. Giustarini, P. Matgen, and V. R. N. Pauwels The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) particle filter are evaluated for their performance in soil moisture assimilation and the consequent effect on discharge. With respect to the resulting soil moisture time series, both filters perform similarly. However, both filters have a negative effect on the discharge due to inconsistency between the parameter values and the states after the assimilation. In order to overcome this inconsistency, parameter resampling is applied along with the SIR filter, to obtain consistent parameter values with the analyzed soil moisture state. Extreme parameter replication, which could lead to a particle collapse, is avoided by the perturbation of the parameters with white noise. Both the modelled soil moisture and discharge are improved if the complementary parameter resampling is applied. The SIR filter with parameter resampling offers an efficient way to deal with biased observations. The robustness of the methodology is evaluated for 3 model parameter sets and 3 assimilation frequencies. Overall, the results in this paper indicate that the particle filter is a promising tool for hydrologic modelling purposes, but that an additional parameter resampling may be necessary to consistently update all state variables and fluxes within the model.

Description: Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5811-5847, 2011 Author(s): D. Zoccatelli, M. Borga, A. Viglione, G. B. Chirico, and G. Blöschl This paper provides a general analytical framework for assessing the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. The analytical framework builds upon a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed " spatial moments of catchment rainfall ") which describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of storm velocity at the catchment scale. The paper illustrates the development of the analytical framework and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by means of application to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km 2 . The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide essential information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

Description: Evaluation of the transferability of hydrological model parameters for simulations under changed climatic conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5891-5915, 2011 Author(s): S. Bastola, C. Murphy, and J. Sweeney Conceptual hydrological models are widely used for climate change impact assessment. The implicit assumption in most such work is that the parameters estimated from observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. This paper evaluates a simple threshold based approach for testing this assumption, where a set of behavioural simulators are identified for different climatic conditions for the future simulation i.e. wet, average and dry conditions. These simulators were derived using three different data sets that are generated by sampling a block of one year of data without replacement from the observations such that they define the different climatic conditions. The simulators estimated from the wet climatic data set showed the tendency to underestimate flow when applied to dry data set and vice versa. However, the performances of the three sets of basin simulators on chronologically coherent data are identical to the simulators identified from a sufficiently long data series that contains both wet and dry climatic conditions. The results presented suggest that the issue of time invariance in the value of parameters has a minimal effect on the simulation if the change in precipitation is less than 10 % of the data used for calibration.

Description: Mass transfer effects in 2-D dual-permeability modeling of field preferential bromide leaching with drain effluent Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5917-5967, 2011 Author(s): H. H. Gerke, J. Dusek, and T. Vogel Subsurface drained experimental fields are frequently used for studying preferential flow (PF) in structured soils. Considering two-dimensional (2-D) transport towards the drain, however, the relevance of mass transfer coefficients, apparently reflecting small-scale soil structural properties, for the water and solute balances of the entire drained field is largely unknown. This paper reviews and analyzes effects of mass transfer reductions on Br − leaching for a subsurface drained experimental field using a numerical 2-D dual-permeability model (2D-DPERM). The sensitivity of the "diffusive" mass transfer component on bromide (Br − ) leaching patterns is discussed. Flow and transport is simulated in a 2-D vertical cross-section using parameters, boundary conditions (BC), and data of a Br − tracer irrigation experiment on a subsurface drained field (5000 m 2 area) at Bokhorst (Germany), where soils have developed from glacial till sediments. The 2D-DPERM simulation scenarios assume realistic irrigation and rainfall rates, and Br-application in the soil matrix (SM) domain. The mass transfer reduction controls preferential tracer movement and can be related to physical and chemical properties at the interface between flow path and soil matrix in structured soil. A reduced solute mass transfer rate coefficient allows a better match of the Br − mass flow observed in the tile drain discharge. The results suggest that coefficients of water and solute transfer between PF and SM domains have a clear impact on Br − effluent from the drain. Amount and composition of the drain effluent is analyzed as a highly complex interrelation between temporally and spatially variable mass transfer in the 2-D vertical flow domain that depends on varying "advective" and "diffusive" transfer components, the spatial distribution of residual tracer concentrations, and the lateral flow fields in both domains from plots of the whole subsurface drained field. The local-scale soil structural effects (e.g., such as macropore wall coatings), here conceptualized as changes in mass transfer coefficients, can have a clear effect on leaching at the plot and field-scales.

Description: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5969-5997, 2011 Author(s): R. R. E. Vernimmen, A. Hooijer, Mamenun, and E. Aldrian The accuracy of satellite rainfall data from different sources, TRMM 3B42RT, CMORPH and PERSIANN, was investigated through comparison with reliable ground station rainfall data in Indonesia, with a focus on their ability to detect patterns of low rainfall that may lead to drought conditions. It was found that all sources underestimated rainfall in dry season months. The CMORPH and PERSIANN data differed most from ground station data and are also very different from the TRMM data. However, it proved possible to improve TRMM data to yield sufficiently accurate estimates, both for dry periods ( R 2 0.65–0.92) and annually ( R 2 0.84–0.96), applying a single parameterized bias correction equation that is constant in space and time. It is proposed that these bias corrected TRMM data be used in real-time drought monitoring, in Indonesia and probably in other countries where similar conditions exist. This will yield major advantages, in terms of accuracy, spatial coverage, timely availability and cost efficiency, over drought monitoring with only ground stations.

Description: Effects of antecedent soil moisture on runoff modeling in small semiarid watersheds of southeastern Arizona Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6227-6256, 2011 Author(s): Y. Zhang, H. Wei, and M. A. Nearing Antecedent soil moisture prior to a rain event influences the rainfall-runoff relationship. Very few studies have looked at the effects of antecedent soil moisture on runoff modeling sensitivities in arid and semi-arid areas. This study examines the influence of initial soil moisture on model runoff prediction capability in small semiarid watersheds using model sensitivity and by comparing the use of antecedent vs. average long term soil water content for defining the model initial conditions for the modified Green-Ampt Mein-Larson model within the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM). Measured rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture data from four semiarid rangeland watersheds ranging in size from 0.34 to 4.53 ha on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeastern Arizona, USA, were used. Results showed that: (a) there were no significant correlations between measured runoff ratio and antecedent soil moisture in any of the four watersheds; (b) average sensitivities of simulated runoff amounts and peaks to antecedent soil moisture were 0.05 mm and 0.18 mm h −1 , respectively, with each 1 % change in antecedent soil moisture; (c) runoff amounts and peaks simulated with long term average soil moisture were statistically equivalent to those simulated with measured antecedent soil moisture. The relative lack of sensitivity of modeled runoff to antecedent soil moisture in this case is contrary to results reported in other studies, and is largely due to the fact that the surface soil is nearly always very dry in this environment.

Description: Integrated versus isolated scenario for prediction dissolved oxygen at progression of water quality monitoring stations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6069-6112, 2011 Author(s): A. A. Najah, A. El-Shafie, O. A. Karim, and O. Jaafar This study examined the potential of Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) in predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) at Johor River Basin. The river water quality parameters were monitored regularly each month at four different stations by the Department of Environment (DOE) over a period of ten years, i.e. from 1998 to 2007. The following five water quality parameters were selected for the proposed MLP-NN modelling, namely; temperature (Temp), water pH, electrical conductivity (COND), nitrate (NO 3 ) and ammonical nitrogen (NH 3 –NL). In this study, two scenarios were introduced; the first scenario (Scenario 1) was to establish the prediction model for DO at each station based on five input parameters, while the second scenario (Scenario 2) was to establish the prediction model for DO based on the five input parameters and DO predicted at previous station (upstream). The model needs to verify when output results and the observed values are close enough to satisfy the verification criteria. Therefore, in order to investigate the efficiency of the proposed model, the verification of MLP-NN based on collection of field data within duration 2009–2010 is presented. To evaluate the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. It was found that the most effective inputs were oxygen-containing (NO 3 ) and oxygen demand (NH 3 –NL). On the other hand, Temp and pH were found to be the least effective parameters, whereas COND contributed the lowest to the proposed model. In addition, 17 neurons were selected as the best number of neurons in the hidden layer for the MLP-NN architecture. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Coefficient of Efficiency (CE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CC). A relatively low correlation between the observed and predicted values in the testing data set was obtained in Scenario 1. In contrast, high coefficients of correlation were obtained between the observed and predicted values for the test sets of 0.98, 0.96 and 0.97 for all stations after adopting Scenario 2. It appeared that the results for Scenario 2 were more adequate than Scenario 1, with a significant improvement for all stations ranging from 4 % to 8 %.

Description: The causes of flow regime shifts in the semi-arid Hailiutu River, Northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5999-6030, 2011 Author(s): Z. Yang, Y. X. Zhou, J. Wenninger, and S. Uhlenbrook Identifying the causes (climate vs. human activities) for hydrological variability is a major challenge in hydrology. This paper examines the flow regime shifts, changes in the climatic variables such as precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and crop area in the semi-arid Hailiutu catchment in the middle section of the Yellow River by performing several statistical analyses. The Pettitt test, cumulative sum charts (CUSUM), regime shift index (RSI) method, and harmonic analysis were carried out on annual, monthly, and daily discharges. Four major shifts in the flow regime have been detected in 1968, 1986, 1992 and 2001. Characteristics of the flow regime were analyzed in the five periods: 1957–1967, 1968–1985, 1986–1991, 1992–2000, and 2001–2007. From 1957 to 1967, the flow regime reflects quasi natural conditions with high variability and larger amplitude of 6 months periodic fluctuations. The river flow had been affected by the construction of two reservoirs in the period 1968–1985. In the period of 1986–1991, the river discharge decreased due to the combined influence of river diversions and increase of groundwater extractions for irrigation. In the fourth period of 1992–2000, the river discharge reached lowest flow values and variations corresponding to a large increase in crop area. The flow regime recovered, but not yet to natural status in the fifth period of 2001–2007. Climatic factors are not responsible for all these changes in the flow regime, but the changes are corresponding well to human activities.

Description: Integrating coarse-scale uncertain soil moisture data into a fine-scale hydrological modelling scenario Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6031-6067, 2011 Author(s): H. Vernieuwe, B. De Baets, J. Minet, V. R. N. Pauwels, S. Lambot, M. Vanclooster, and N. E. C. Verhoest In a hydrological modelling scenario, often the modeller is confronted with external data, such as remotely-sensed soil moisture observations, that become available to update the model output. However, the scale triplet (spacing, extent and support) of these data is often inconsistent with that of the model. Furthermore, the external data can be cursed with epistemic uncertainty. Hence, a method is needed that not only integrates the external data into the model, but that also takes into account the difference in scale and the uncertainty of the observations. In this paper, a synthetic hydrological modelling scenario is set up in which a high-resolution distributed hydrological model is run over an agricultural field. At regular time steps, coarse-scale field-averaged soil moisture data, described by means of possibility distributions (epistemic uncertainty), are retrieved by synthetic aperture radar and assimilated into the model. A method is presented that allows to integrate the coarse-scale possibility distribution of soil moisture content data with the fine-scale model-based soil moisture data. To this end, a scaling relationship between field-averaged soil moisture content data and its corresponding standard deviation is employed.

Description: Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4701-4719, 2011 Author(s): G. Lenderink, H. Y. Mok, T. C. Lee, and G. J. van Oldenborgh Hourly precipitation extremes in very long time series from the Hong Kong Observatory and the Netherlands are investigated. Using the 2 m dew point temperature from 4 h before the rainfall event as a measure of near surface absolute humidity, hourly precipitation extremes closely follow a 14 % per degree dependency – a scaling twice as large as following from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, for dew point temperatures above 23 °C no significant dependency on humidity was found. Strikingly, in spite of the large difference in climate, results are almost identical in Hong Kong and the Netherlands for the dew point temperature range where both observational sets have sufficient data. Trends in hourly precipitation extremes show substantial increases over the last century for both De Bilt (the Netherlands) and Hong Kong. For De Bilt, not only the long term trend, but also variations in hourly precipitation extremes on a inter-decadal timescale of 30 yr and longer, can be linked very well to the above scaling; there is a very close resemblance between variations in dew point temperature and precipitation intensity with an inferred dependency of hourly precipitation extremes of 10 to 14 % per degree. For Hong Kong there is no connection between variations in humidity and those in precipitation intensity in the wet season, May to September, consistent with the found zero-dependency of preciptation intensity on humidity for dew points above 23 °C. Yet, outside the wet season humidity changes do appear to explain the positive trend in hourly precipitation extremes, again following a dependency close to twice the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.

Description: Forest cover influence on flood assessment in Italian catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4891-4926, 2011 Author(s): F. Preti, G. Forzieri, and G. B. Chirico The paper aims at evaluating to what extent forest cover could affect the flood peak frequency and magnitude in Italian catchments. The analysis is restricted to evaluating the component of the runoff coefficient which cannot be captured by the catchment lithology alone. A preliminary data mining is performed on data of 75 catchments distributed from South to Central Italy. Cluster and correlation structure analyses are conducted for distinguishing forest cover effects within sample sets of catchments characterized by hydro-morphological similarities. We propose a method for correcting the bias of the runoff coefficient estimated from the catchment lithology only, by accounting for the effect of forest cover. The bias correction becomes significant for small mountainous catchments, characterised by larger forest cover fraction and lower critical rainfall depth. Consistently with what suggested in previous studies, the bias correction decreases as the rainfall depth and return period increase.

Description: Technical Note: Development of an automated lysimeter for the calculation of peat soil actual evapotranspiration Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5009-5033, 2011 Author(s): S. Proulx-McInnis, A. St-Hilaire, A. N. Rousseau, S. Jutras, G. Carrer, and G. Levrel A limited number of publications in the literature deal with the measurement of actual evapotranspiration (AET) from a peat soil. AET is an important parameter in the description of water pathways of an ecosystem. In peatlands, where the water table is near the surface and the vegetation is composed of nonvascular plants without stomatal resistance, the AET measurement represents a challenge. This paper discusses the development of an automated lysimeter installed between 12 and 27 July 2010, at a 11-ha bog site, Pont-Rouge (42 km west of Quebec City, Canada). This system was made of an isolated block of peat, maintained at the same water level as the surrounding water table by a system of submersible pressure transmitters and pumps. The change in water level in millimetres in the isolated block of peat was used to calculate the water lost through evapotranspiration (ET) while accounting the precipitation. The rates of AET were calculated for each day of the study period. Temperature fluctuated between 17.2 and 23.3 °C and total rainfall was 43.76 mm. AET rates from 0.6 to 6.9 mm day −1 were recorded, with a ΣAET/ΣP ratio of 1.38. The estimated potential ET (PET) resulting from Thornthwaite's semi-empirical formula suggested values between 2.8 and 3.9 mm day −1 . The average AET/PET ratio was 1.13. According to the literature, the results obtained are plausible. This system, relatively inexpensive and simple to install, may eventually be used to calculate AET on peaty soils in the years to come.

Description: Technical Note: Demonstrating a 24/7 solution for monitoring water quality loads in rivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5035-5050, 2011 Author(s): P. Jordan and R. Cassidy Quantifying nutrient and sediment loads in catchments is difficult owing to diffuse controls related to storm hydrology. Coarse sampling and interpolation methods are prone to very high uncertainties due to under-representation of high discharge, short duration events. Additionally, important low-flow processes such as diurnal signals linked to point source impacts are missed. Here we demonstrate a solution based on a time-integrated approach to sampling with a standard 24 bottle autosampler configured to take a sample every 7 h over a week. This is evaluated with a number of other sampling strategies using a two-year dataset of sub-hourly discharge and phosphorus concentration data. The 24/7 solution is shown to be the least uncertain in estimating load (inter-quartile range is 96 % to 110 % of actual load in year 1 and 97 % to 104 % in year 2) due to the increased frequency raising the probability of sampling storm events and point source signals. The 24/7 solution would appear to be most parsimonious in terms of technology requirements, the ability to be widely deployed and to represent important nutrient transfer processes in complex catchments.

Description: Bayesian inverse modelling of in situ soil water dynamics: using prior information about the soil hydraulic properties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 2019-2063, 2011 Author(s): B. Scharnagl, J. A. Vrugt, H. Vereecken, and M. Herbst In situ observations of soil water state variables under natural boundary conditions are often used to estimate field-scale soil hydraulic properties. However, many contributions to the soil hydrological literature have demonstrated that the information content of such data is insufficient to reliably estimate all the soil hydraulic parameters. In this case study, we tested whether prior information about the soil hydraulic properties could help improve the identifiability of the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters. Three different prior distributions with increasing complexity were formulated using the ROSETTA pedotransfer function (PTF) with input data that constitutes basic soil information and is readily available in most vadose zone studies. The inverse problem was posed in a formal Bayesian framework and solved using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. Synthetic and real-world soil water content data were used to illustrate our approach. The results of this study corroborate and explicate findings previously reported in the literature. Indeed, soil water content data alone contained insufficient information to reasonably constrain all VGM parameters. The identifiability of these soil hydraulic parameters was substantially improved when an informative prior distribution was used with detailed knowledge of the correlation structure among the respective VGM parameters. A biased prior did not distort the results, which inspires confidence in the robustness and effectiveness of the presented method. The Bayesian framework presented in this study can be applied to a wide range of vadose zone studies and provides a blueprint for the use of prior information in inverse modelling of soil hydraulic properties at various spatial scales.

Description: Classification of thermal waters based on their inorganic fingerprint and hydrogeothermal modelling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4559-4581, 2011 Author(s): I. Delgado-Outeiriño, P. Araujo-Nespereira, J. A. Cid-Fernández, J. C. Mejuto, E. Martínez-Carballo, and J. Simal-Gándara Hydrothermal features in Galicia have been used since ancient times for therapeutic purposes. A characterization of these thermal waters was carried out in order to understand their behaviour based on inorganic pattern and water-rock interaction mechanisms. In this way 15 thermal water samples were collected in the same hydrographical system. The results of the hydrogeochemistry analysis showed one main water family of bicarbonate type sodium waters, typical in the post-orogenic basins of Galicia. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial lest squared (PLS) clustered the selected thermal waters in two groups, regarding to their chemical composition. This classification agreed with the results obtained by the use of geothermometers and the hydrogeochemical modelling. The first included thermal samples that could be in contact with surface waters and therefore, their residence time in the reservoir and their water-rock interaction would be less important than for the thermal waters of the second group.

Description: The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4459-4493, 2011 Author(s): J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, J. I. López-Moreno, J. C. González-Hidalgo, and E. Morán-Tejeda In this study we analyzed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the streamflow in 187 sub-basins of the Iberian Peninsula. Monthly and one-month lagged correlations were conducted to assess the spatio-temporal extent of the NAO influence on Iberian river discharges. Analysis of the persistence of the winter NAO throughout the year was also undertaken, together with analysis of streamflow anomalies during positive and negative NAO phases. Moving-window correlation analyses were conducted to assess potential changes in the temporal evolution of the NAO influence on Iberian streamflows. The results show that the NAO has a large impact on surface water resources throughout the Iberian Peninsula during winter, and in the Atlantic watershed during autumn. We showed that water resources management and snowmelt are causing the persistent dependence of streamflows on the previous winter NAO. We found that strongly positive streamflow anomalies occurred during winter, especially in the Atlantic watershed, and provide evidence of non-stationarity and spatial variability in the NAO influence on Iberian water resources.

Description: Catchment classification: empirical analysis of hydrologic similarity based on catchment function in the eastern USA Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4495-4534, 2011 Author(s): K. Sawicz, T. Wagener, M. Sivapalan, P. A. Troch, and G. Carrillo Hydrologic similarity between catchments, derived from their similarity in how they respond to precipitation input, is the basis for classification, for transferability, for generalization and also for understanding the potential impacts of environmental change. An important question in this context is, in how far can widely available hydrologic information (precipitation-temperature-streamflow) be used to create a first order grouping of hydrologically similar catchments? We utilize a heterogeneous dataset of 280 catchments located in the Eastern US to understand hydrologic similarity in a 6-dimensional signature space across a region with strong environmental gradients. Signatures are defined as hydrologic response characteristics that provide some insight into the hydrologic function of catchments. A Bayesian clustering scheme is used to separate the catchments into 9 classes, which are subsequently analyzed with respect to their hydrologic, as well as climatic and landscape attributes. Based on the empirical results we hypothesize the following: (1) Streamflow elasticity with respect to precipitation is modified by the soil characteristics of a catchment. (2) Spatial proximity is a good first indicator of hydrologic similarity because of the strong control climate exerts on catchment function, and because it varies slowly in space.

Description: Improving confidence in deep drainage estimates, for arid and semi-arid areas using multiple linear regression with percent clay content and rainfall Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4535-4557, 2011 Author(s): D. L. Wohling, F. W. Leaney, and R. S. Crosbie Deep drainage estimates are required for effective management of water resources. However, field measurements are time consuming and costly so simple empirical relationships are often used. Relationships developed between clay content of the surface soil and deep drainage have been used extensively in Australia to provide regional estimates of drainage but these relationships have been poorly justified and did not include rainfall in the relationships. Here we present a rigorous appraisal of clay content of soils and rainfall as predictors of drainage using an extensive database of field observations from across Australia. This study found that annual average rainfall and the clay content of the top 2 m of the soil are statistically significant predictors of drainage. Relationships have been defined for annual, perennial and tree type vegetation as a line of best fit along with 95 % confidence intervals. This allows the uncertainty in these drainage estimates to be assessed for the first time.

Description: Catchment classification: hydrological analysis of catchment behavior through process-based modeling along a climate gradient Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4583-4640, 2011 Author(s): G. Carrillo, P. A. Troch, M. Sivapalan, T. Wagener, C. Harman, and K. Sawicz Catchment classification is an efficient method to synthesize our understanding of how climate variability and catchment characteristics interact to define hydrological response. One way to accomplish catchment classification is to empirically relate climate and catchment characteristics to hydrologic behavior and to quantify the skill of predicting hydrologic response based on the combination of climate and catchment characteristics. Since there are important subsurface properties that cannot be readily measured, the skill of classification reflects (the lack of) the amount of cross-correlation between observable landscape features and unobservable subsurface features. The resulting empirical approach is also strongly controlled by the dataset used, and therefore lacks the power to generalize beyond the heterogeneity of characteristics found in the dataset. An alternative approach, that can partially alleviate the above-mentioned issue of observability, uses our current level of hydrological understanding, expressed in the form of a process-based model, to interrogate how climate and catchment characteristics interact to produce the observed hydrologic response. In this paper we present a general method of hydrologic analysis by means of a process-based model to support a bottom-up catchment classification system complementary to top-down classification methods. The model uses topographic, geomorphologic, soil and vegetation information at the catchment scale and conditions parameter values using readily available data on precipitation, temperature and streamflow. It is applicable to a wide range of catchments in different climate settings. We have developed a step-by-step procedure to analyze the observed hydrologic response and to assign parameter values related to specific components of the model. We applied this procedure to 12 catchments across a climate gradient east of the Rocky Mountains, USA. We show that the model is capable of reproducing the observed hydrologic behavior measured through hydrologic signatures chosen at different temporal scales. Next, we analyze the dominant time scales of catchment response and their dimensionless ratios with respect to climate and observable landscape features in an attempt to explain hydrologic partitioning. We find that only a limited number of model parameters can be related to observable landscape features. However, several climate-model time scales, and the associated dimensionless numbers, show scaling relationships with respect to the investigated hydrological signatures (runoff coefficient, baseflow index, and slope of the flow duration curve). Moreover, our analysis revealed systematic co-variation of climate, vegetation and soil related time scales along the climate gradient. If such co-variation can be shown to be robust across many catchments along different climate gradients, it opens perspective for model parameterization in ungauged catchments as well as prediction of hydrologic response in a rapidly changing environment.

Description: Insights from a joint analysis of Indian and Chinese monsoon rainfall data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3167-3187, 2011 Author(s): M. Zhou, F. Tian, U. Lall, and H. Hu Monsoon rainfall is of great importance for the agricultural production in both China and India. Understanding its rule and possibility of long term prediction is a challenge for research. This paper gives a joint analysis of Indian monsoon and Chinese monsoon, finds their teleconnection to Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTa) and other climate indices individually and relationship in common. The results show that northern China garners less rainfall when whole Indian rainfall is below normal. Also, with cold SSTa over the Indonesia region, more rainfall would be distributed over India and South China.

Description: The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3189-3231, 2011 Author(s): A. W. Western, B. Anderson, L. Siriwardena, F. H. S. Chiew, A. Seed, and G. Blöschl The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min) rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth 〉10 mm) is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs) in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the efficiency of prediction of the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals). The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude) and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

Description: Participative environmental management and social capital in Poland Social Geography, 6, 39-45, 2011 Author(s): A. Hunka and W. T. de Groot Eastern European countries, such as Poland, often illustrate social capital studies. Upon entering the European Union, social capital in Poland was seen as a problem in implementing new regulations, particularly in the field of environmental policy. Equally important, environmental issues often present a high degree of complexity – and European legislation requires multi-stakeholder involvement in decision-making processes. Thus, the dilemma: on the one hand, there is a demand to engage and consult many actors; on the other hand, the actors function in administrative culture with a ubiquitous top-down approach taken by institutional decision makers. This paper attempts to address the problem from the perspective of social capital theory. An overview of administrative culture and examples of decision-making processes shows the way decisions are currently made. We also propose a way to achieve more participative environmental management.

Description: Water table fluctuation and its effects on vegetation in a semiarid environment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3271-3304, 2011 Author(s): L. Duan, T. Liu, X. Wang, Y. Luo, W. Wang, and X. Liu A good understanding of water table fluctuation effects on vegetation is crucial for sustaining fragile hydrology and ecology of semiarid areas such as the Horqin Sandy Land (HSL) in northern China, but such understanding is not well documented in literature. The objectives of this study were to examine spatio-temporal variations of water table and their effects on vegetation in a semiarid environment. A 9.71 km 2 area within the HSL was chosen and well-instrumented to continuously measure hydrometeorologic parameters (e.g., water table). The area comprises of meadow lands and sandy dunes as well as transitional zones in between. In addition to those measured data, this study also used Landsat TM and MODIS imageries and meteorological data at a station near the study area. The spatio-temporal variations were examined using visual plots and contour maps, while the effects on vegetation were determined by overlaying a water table depth map with a vegetation index map derived from the MODIS imageries. The results indicated that water table was mainly dependent on local topography, localized geological settings, and human activities (e.g., reclamation). At annual and monthly scales, water table was mainly a function of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. A region within the study area where depth to water table was smaller tended to have better (i.e., more dense and productive) vegetation cover. Further, the results revealed that water table fluctuation was more sensitive for vegetations in the meadow lands than in the transitional zones, but it was least sensitive for vegetations in the sandy dunes.

Description: Comparison of catchment grouping methods for flow duration curve estimation at ungauged sites in France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3233-3269, 2011 Author(s): E. Sauquet and C. Catalogne The study aims at estimating flow duration curves (FDC) at ungauged sites in France and quantifying the associated uncertainties using a large dataset of 1080 FDCs. The interpolation procedure focuses here on 15 percentiles standardised by the mean annual flow, which is supposed to be known at each site. In particular, this paper discusses the relevance of different catchments grouping procedures on percentiles estimation by regional regression models. First, five parsimonious FDC parametric models were tested to approximate FDCs at gauged sites. The results show that the model based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) expansion outperforms the other ones. In this model each FDC is interpreted as a linear combination of regional amplitude functions with weights – the parameters of the model – varying in space. Here, only one amplitude function was found sufficient to fit well most of the observed curves. Thus the considered model requires only two parameters to be estimated at ungauged locations. Second, homogeneous regions were derived according to hydrological response on one hand, and geological, climatic and topographic characteristics on the other hand. Hydrological similarity was assessed through two simple indicators: the concavity index ( IC ) that represents the shape of the standardized FDC and the seasonality ratio ( SR ) which is the ratio of summer and winter median flows. These variables were used as homogeneity criteria in three different methods for grouping catchments: (i) according to their membership in one of an a priori French classification into Hydro-Eco-Regions (HERs), (ii) by applying a regression tree clustering and (iii) by using hydrological neighbourhood obtained by canonical correlation analysis. Finally, regression models between physiographic and/or climatic variables and the two parameters of the EOF model were derived considering all the data and thereafter for each group obtained through the tested grouping techniques. Results on percentiles estimation in cross validation show a significant benefit to form homogeneous regions before developing regressions, particularly when grouping methods use hydrogeological information.

Description: Influences on flood frequency distributions in Irish river catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3305-3351, 2011 Author(s): S. Ahilan, J. J. O'Sullivan, and M. Bruen This study explores influences which result in shifts of flood frequency distributions in Irish rivers. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) type I distributions are recommended in Ireland for estimating flood quantiles. This paper presents the findings of an investigation that identified the GEV statistical distributions that best fit the annual maximum (AM) data series extracted from 172 gauging stations of 126 rivers in Ireland. Of these 126 rivers, 25 have multiple gauging stations. Analysis of this data was undertaken to explore hydraulic and hydro-geological factors that influence flood frequency distributions and whether shifts in distributions occur in the down-river direction. The methodology involved determining the shape parameter of GEV distributions that were fitted to AM data at each site and to statistically test this shape parameter to determine whether a type I, type II or type III distribution was valid. The classification of these distributions was further supported by moment and L -moment diagrams and probability plots. Results indicated that of the 143 stations with flow records exceeding 25 yr, data for 92 was best represented by GEV type I distributions and that for another 12 and 39 stations followed type II and type III distributions respectively. The spatial, hydraulic and hydro-geological influences on flood frequency distributions were assessed by incorporating results on an Arc-GIS platform with individual layers showing karst features, flood attenuation polygons and lakes. This data reveals that type I distributions are spatially well represented throughout the country. The majority of type III distributions appear in four distinct clusters in well defined geographical areas where attenuation influences from floodplains and lakes appear to be influential. The majority of type II distributions appear to be in a single cluster in a region in the west of the country that is characterised by a karst landscape. The presence of karst in river catchments would be expected to provide additional subsurface storage and in this regard, type III distributions might be expected. The prevalence of type II distributions in this area reflects the finite nature of this storage and the effects, in extreme conditions, when the karst is saturated and further storage is no longer available. Results therefore indicate that in some instances assuming type I distributions is incorrect and may result in erroneous estimates of flood quantiles in these regions. Where actual data follows a type II distribution, flood quantiles may be underestimated and for type III distributions, overestimates may be expected.

Description: Quantifying flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3133-3166, 2011 Author(s): C.-F. Ni, C.-P. Lin, S.-G. Li, and J.-S. Chen This study presents a numerical first-order spectral model to quantify flow and remediation zone uncertainties for partially opened wells in heterogeneous aquifers. Taking advantages of spectral theories in solving unmodeled small-scale variability in hydraulic conductivity ( K ), the presented nonstationary spectral method (NSM) can efficiently estimate flow uncertainties, including hydraulic heads and Darcy velocities in r- and z profile in a cylindrical coordinate system. The velocity uncertainties associated with the particle backward tracking algorithm are then used to estimate stochastic remediation zones for scenarios with partially opened well screens. In this study the flow and remediation zone uncertainties obtained by NSM were first compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). A layered aquifer with different geometric mean of K and screen locations was then illustrated with the developed NSM. To compare NSM flow and remediation zone uncertainties with those of MCS, three different small-scale K variances and correlation lengths were considered for illustration purpose. The MCS remediation zones for different degrees of heterogeneity were presented with the uncertainty clouds obtained by 200 equally likely MCS realizations. Results of simulations reveal that the first-order NSM solutions agree well with those of MCS for partially opened wells. The flow uncertainties obtained by using NSM and MCS show identically for aquifers with small ln K variances and correlation lengths. Based on the test examples, the remediation zone uncertainties are not sensitive to the changes of small-scale ln K correlation lengths. However, the increases of remediation zone uncertainties are significant with the increases of small-scale ln K variances. The largest displacement uncertainties may have several meters of differences when the ln K variances increase from 0.1 to 1.0. Such results are also valid for the estimations of remediation zones in layered aquifers.

Description: Evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic models: borrowing measures from the forecast verification community Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3085-3131, 2011 Author(s): K. J. Franz and T. S. Hogue The hydrologic community is generally moving towards the use of probabilistic estimates of streamflow, primarily through the implementation of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) systems, ensemble data assimilation methods, or multi-modeling platforms. However, evaluation of probabilistic outputs has not necessarily kept pace with ensemble generation. Much of the modeling community is still performing model evaluation using standard deterministic measures, such as error, correlation, or bias, typically applied to the ensemble mean or median. Probabilistic forecast verification methods have been well developed, particularly in the atmospheric sciences yet, few have been adopted for evaluating uncertainty estimates in hydrologic model simulations. In the current paper, we overview existing probabilistic forecast verification methods and apply the methods to evaluate and compare model ensembles produced from different parameter uncertainty estimation methods. The Generalized Uncertainty Likelihood Estimator (GLUE), a modified version of GLUE, and the Shuffle Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) are used to generate model ensembles for the National Weather Service SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for 12 forecast basins located in the Southeastern United States. We evaluate the model ensembles using relevant metrics in the following categories: distribution, correlation, accuracy, conditional statistics, and categorical statistics. We show that the probabilistic metrics are easily adapted to model simulation ensembles and provide a robust analysis of parameter uncertainty, one that is commensurate with the dimension of the ensembles themselves. Application of these methods requires no information in addition to what is already available as part of traditional model validation methodology and considers the entire ensemble or uncertainty range in the approach.

Description: A structure generator for modelling the initial sediment distribution of an artificial hydrologic catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 4641-4699, 2011 Author(s): T. Maurer, A. Schneider, and H. H. Gerke Artificially-created hydrological catchments are characterized by sediment structures from technological construction processes that can potentially be important for modelling of flow and transport and for understanding initial soil and ecosystem development. The subsurface spatial structures of such catchments have not yet been sufficiently explored and described. Our objective was to develop a structure generator programme for modelling the 3-D spatial sediment distribution patterns depending on the technical earth-moving and deposition processes. For the development, the artificially-constructed hydrological catchment "Chicken Creek" located in Lower Lusatia, Germany, served as an example. The structure generator describes 3-D technological sediment distributions at two scales: (i) for a 2-D-vertical cross-section, texture and bulk density distributions are generated within individual spoil cones that result from mass dumping, particle segregation, and compaction and (ii) for the whole catchment area, the spoil cones are horizontally arranged along trajectories of mass dumping controlled by the belt stacker-machine relative to the catchment's clay layer topography. The generated 3-D texture and bulk density distributions are interpolated and visualized as a gridded 3-D-volume body using 3-D computer-aided design software. The generated subsurface sediment distribution for the Chicken Creek catchment was found to correspond to observed patterns although still without any calibration. Spatial aggregation and interpolation in the gridded volume body modified the generated distributions towards more uniform (unimodal) distributions and lower values of the standard deviations. After incorporating variations and pedotransfer approaches, generated sediment distributions can be used for deriving realizations of the 3-D hydraulic catchment structure.

Description: Skill assessment of a global hydrological model in reproducing flow extremes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 3469-3505, 2011 Author(s): N. Candogan Yossef, L. P. H. van Beek, J. C. J. Kwadijk, and M. F. P. Bierkens As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the MHM PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958 until 2001 is simulated by forcing PCR-GLOBWB with daily meteorological data obtained by downscaling the CRU dataset to daily fields using the ERA-40 reanalysis. Simulated discharge values are compared with observed monthly streamflow records for a selection of 20 large river basins that represent all continents and a wide range of climatic zones. We assess model skill in three ways. First, the general performance of the model in reproducing hydrographs is evaluated. Second, model skill in reproducing significantly higher and lower flows than the monthly normals is assessed in terms of skill scores used for forecasts of categorical events. Third, model skill in reproducing flood and drought events is assessed by constructing binary contingency tables for floods and droughts for each basin. The results show that the model has skill in all three types of hindcasting. After bias correction the model skill in simulating hydrographs is improved considerably. For most basins it is much higher than that of the climatology. The skill in hindcasting monthly anomalies is high compared to that of an imaginary unskilled system. The model also performs better than an unskilled system in hindcasting floods and droughts, with a markedly higher skill in floods. We conclude that the prospect for using PCR-GLOBWB for monthly and seasonal hydrological forecasting is positive. Our results which we argue are representative for other similar MHMs, show that MHMs have sufficient skill for use in forecasting flow extremes.

Description: On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5355-5386, 2011 Author(s): K. Beven, P. J. Smith, and A. Wood Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary means that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals can be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions. To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information content in a set of calibration data and increase the possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior to evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed. An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter values of a hydrological model.

Description: Effects of freezing on soil temperature, frost propagation and moisture redistribution in peat: laboratory investigations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5387-5426, 2011 Author(s): R. M. Nagare, R. A. Schincariol, W. L. Quinton, and M. Hayashi The effects of freezing on soil temperature and water movement were monitored in four peat Mesocosms subjected to bidirectional freezing. Temperature gradients were applied by bringing the Mesocosm tops in contact with sub-zero air temperature while maintaining a continuously frozen layer at the bottom (proxy permafrost). Soil water movement towards the freezing front (from warmer to colder regions) was inferred from soil freezing curves and from the total water content of frozen core samples collected at the end of freezing cycle. This study illustrates how differences in initial water content influence the hydrologic functions of active layer in permafrost terrains covered with thick peat during soil freezing. A substantial amount of water, enough to raise the upper surface of frozen saturated soil within 15 cm of the soil surface at the end of freezing period, appeared to have moved upwards during freezing. Effects of temperature on soil matric potential, at least in the initial freezing period, appear to drive such movement as seen from analysis of soil freezing curves. Vapour movement from warmer to colder regions also appears to contribute in moisture movement. Frost propagation is controlled by latent heat for a long time during freezing. A simple conceptual model describing freezing of an organic active layer initially resembling a variable moisture landscape is proposed based upon the results of this study. The results of this study will help in understanding, and ultimately forecasting, the hydrologic response of wetland-dominated terrain underlain by discontinuous permafrost.

Description: Families and food: beyond the "cultural turn"? Social Geography, 6, 63-71, 2011 Author(s): P. Jackson This paper provides some personal reflections on the ''cultural turn'' in human geography including a tentative chronology of events. It outlines some of the characteristics of the ''cultural turn'' and some of the criticisms that have been levelled against it. In the body of the paper, I attempt to assess the value of the ''cultural turn'', conceptually and methodologically, as applied to two recent research projects on the geography of food and families. The paper concludes that the ''cultural turn'' greatly enriched the study of human geography through its analysis of discourse, representation and practice. But other approaches are required to explain broader changes in political-economy and the materiality of nature. While the ''cultural turn'' contributed to our understanding of materiality and our place in a more-than-human world, geographers are now also embracing other approaches such as those informed by actor-network theory and geographies of emotion, embodiment and affect. The paper concludes with an agenda for future research on the political and moral economies of food, focusing on contemporary consumer anxieties at a range of geographical scales.

Description: SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds. The two-CN system approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 8963-9004, 2011 Author(s): K. X. Soulis and J. D. Valiantzas The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN values can be estimated by being selected from tables. However, it is more accurate to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data (assumed available) in a watershed. Previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. They suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the novel hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of the inevitable presence of soil-cover complex spatial variability along watersheds is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behavior of the CN-rainfall function produced by the proposed two-CN system concept is approached theoretically, it is analyzed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous original method based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one), a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

Description: A channel transmission losses model for different dryland rivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 8903-8962, 2011 Author(s): A. C. Costa, A. Bronstert, and J. C. de Araújo Channel transmission losses in drylands take place normally in extensive alluvial channels or streambeds underlain by fractured rocks. They can play an important role in flood prediction, groundwater recharge, freshwater supply and channel-associated ecosystems. We aim to develop a semi-distributed channel transmission losses model, a coupling of formulations which are more suitable for data-scarce dryland environments, applicable for both hydraulically disconnected losing streams and hydraulically connected losing(/gaining) streams. Hence, this approach should be able to cover a large variation in climate and hydro-geologic controls, which are typically found in dryland regions of the world. Traditionally, channel transmission losses models have been developed for site specific conditions. Our model was firstly evaluated for a losing/gaining, hydraulically connected 30 km reach of the Jaguaribe River, Ceará, Brazil, which controls a catchment area of 20 000 km 2 . Secondly, we applied it to a small losing, hydraulically disconnected 1.5 km channel reach in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW), Arizona, USA. The model based on the perceptual hydrological models of the reaches was able to predict reliably the stream flow for the both case studies. For the larger river reach, the evaluation of the hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes was fundamental for reducing structural model uncertainties and improving the stream flow prediction, showing that both lateral stream-aquifer water fluxes and groundwater flow in the underlying alluvium parallel to the river course are necessary to predict stream flow and channel transmission losses, the former process being more relevant than the latter. The sensitivity analysis showed that even if the parameters can "potentially" produce large flow exchanges between model units in the saturated part of the modelling, large flow exchanges do not happen because they are restricted by the actual hydraulic gradient between the model units. Moreover, the saturated-part-based parameters (active in the larger river) produced much smaller variation in the sensitivity coefficient than those (active in the smaller river) which drive the unsaturated part of the channel transmission losses model.

Description: Watershed discretization based on multiple factors and its application in the Chinese Loess Plateau Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9063-9087, 2011 Author(s): Y. Xu, B. Fu, C. He, and G. Gao The spatial discretization of watersheds is an indispensable procedure for representing landscape variations in eco-hydrological research, representing the contrast between reality and data-supported models. When discretizing a watershed, it is important to construct a scheme of a moderate number of discretized factors while adequately considering the actual eco-hydrological processes, especially in regions with unique eco-hydrological features and intense human activities. Because of their special lithological and pedologic characteristics and widespread man-made vegetation, discretization of watersheds in the Loess Plateau in Northern China is a challenge. In order to simulate the rainfall-runoff process, a watershed in the Loess Plateau, referred as Ansai, was spatially discretized into new units called land type units. These land type units were delineated under a scheme of factors including land use, vegetation condition, soil type and slope. Instead of using units delineated by overlaying land use and soil maps, the land type units were used in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Curve numbers were assigned and adjusted to simulate runoff, using the US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number method. The results of the runoff simulation better matched actual observations. Compared to the results that used the original units, the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient ( E NS ) for monthly flow simulation increased from 0.710–0.721 and 0.581–0.656 to 0.726–0.731 and 0.692–0.703, respectively. This method of delineating into land type units is an easy operation and suitable approach for eco-hydrological studies in the Chinese Loess Plateau and other similar regions. It can be further applied in soil erosion simulation and the eco-hydrological assessment of re-vegetation.

Description: Improving evapotranspiration in land surface models by using biophysical parameters derived from MSG/SEVIRI satellite Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9113-9171, 2011 Author(s): N. Ghilain, A. Arboleda, G. Sepulcre-Cantò, O. Batelaan, J. Ardö, and F. Gellens-Meulenberghs Vegetation parameters derived from the geostationary satellite MSG/SEVIRI have been distributed at a daily frequency since 2007 over Europe, Africa and part of South America, through the LSA-SAF facility. We propose here a method to handle two new remote sensing products from LSA-SAF, leaf area index and Fractional Vegetation Cover, noted LAI and FVC respectively, for land surface models at MSG/SEVIRI scale. The developed method relies on an ordinary least-square technique and a land cover map to estimate LAI for each model plant functional types of the model spatial unit. The method is conceived to be applicable for near-real time applications at continental scale. Compared to monthly vegetation parameters from a vegetation database commonly used in numerical weather predictions (ECOCLIMAP-I), the new remote sensing products allows a better monitoring of the spatial and temporal variability of the vegetation, including inter-annual signals, and a decreased uncertainty on LAI to be input into land surface models. We assess the impact of using LSA-SAF vegetation parameters compared to ECOCLIMAP-I in the land surface model H-TESSEL at MSG/SEVIRI scale. Comparison with in-situ observations in Europe and Africa shows that the results on evapotranspiration are mostly improved, and especially in semi-arid climates. At last, the use of LSA-SAF and ECOCLIMAP-I is compared with simulations over a North-South Transect in Western Africa using LSA-SAF radiation forcing derived from remote sensing, and differences are highlighted.

Description: In-situ evaluation of internal drainage in layered soils (Tukulu, Sepane and Swartland) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9797-9841, 2011 Author(s): S. S. W. Mavimbela and L. D. van Rensburg The soil water release (SWC) and permeability properties of layered soils following deep infiltration depends on the structural and layering composition of the profiles diagnostic horizons. Three layered soils, the Tukulu, Sepane and Swartland soil forms, from the Free State province of South Africa, were selected for internal drainage evaluation. The soil water release curves as a function of suction ( h ) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity ( K -coefficient) as a function of soil water content, SWC ( θ ), were characterised alongside the pedological properties of the profiles. The water hanging column in collaboration with the in-situ instantaneous profile method (IPM) was appropriate for this work. Independently, the saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K s ) was measured using double ring infiltrometers. The three soils had a generic orthic A horizon but differed remarkable with depth. A clay rich layer was found in the Tukulu and Sepane at depths of 600 to 850 mm and 300 to 900 mm, respectively. The Swartland was weakly developed with a saprolite rock found at depth of 400–700 mm. During the 1200 h drainage period, soil water loss amounted to 21, 20 and 51 mm from the respective Tukulu, Sepane and Swartland profiles. An abrupt drop in K s in conjunction with a steep K -coefficient gradient with depth was observed from the Tukulu and Sepane. Hydromorphic colours found on the clay-rich horizons suggested a wet soil water regime that implied restriction of internal drainage. It was therefore concluded that the clay rich horizons gave the Tukulu and Sepane soil types restricted internal drainage properties required for soil water storage under infield rainwater harvesting production technique. The coarseness of the Swartland promoted high drainage losses that proliferated a dry soil water regime.

Description: Promoting interdisciplinary education – the Vienna Doctoral Programme on Water Resource Systems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9843-9887, 2011 Author(s): G. Blöschl, G. Carr, C. Bucher, A. H. Farnleitner, H. Rechberger, W. Wagner, and M. Zessner The Vienna Doctoral Programme on Water Resource Systems (DK-WRS) is a programme that aims to educate students in interdisciplinary water science through cutting edge research at an international level. It is funded by the Austrian Science Fund and designed to run over a period of 12 yr during which 80 doctoral students are anticipated to graduate. This paper reports on our experiences of setting up and implementing the Programme. We identify three challenges: integrating the disciplines, maintaining depth in an interdisciplinary programme, and teaching subjects remote to each student's core expertise. To address these challenges we adopted a number of approaches. We use three levels of instruments to foster integration across the disciplines: joint groups (e.g. a joint study programme), joint science questions (e.g. developed in annual symposia), and joint study sites. To maintain depth we apply a system of quality control including regular feedback sessions, theses by journal publications and international study exchange. For simultaneously teaching students from civil and environmental engineering, biology, geology, chemistry, mathematics we use visually explicit teaching, learning by doing, extra mentoring and by cross relating associated subjects. Our initial assessment of the Programme shows some very positive outcomes. Joint science questions formed between students from various disciplines indicate integration is being achieved. The number of successful publications in top journals suggests that depth is maintained. Positive feedback from the students on the variety and clarity of the courses indicates the teaching strategy is working well. Our experiences have shown that implementing and running an interdisciplinary doctoral programme has its challenges and is demanding in terms of time and human resources but seeing interactions progress and watching people grow and develop their way of thinking in an interdisciplinary environment is a valuable reward.

Description: El-Niño southern oscillation and rainfall erosivity in the headwater region of the Grande River Basin, Southeast Brazil Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10707-10738, 2011 Author(s): C. R. Mello, L. D. Norton, N. Curi, S. N. M. Yanagi, and A. M. Silva Relationships between regional climate and oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are important tools in order to promote the development of models for predicting rainfall erosivity, especially in regions with substantial intra-annual variability in the rainfall regime. In this context, this work aimed to analyze the rainfall erosivity in headwaters of Grande River Basin, Southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil. This study considered the two most representative environments, the Mantiqueira Range (MR) and Plateau of Southern Minas Gerais (PSM). These areas are affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for Niño 3.4 Region and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Rainfall erosivity was calculated for individual rainfall events from January 2006 to December 2010. The analyses were conducted using the monthly data of ENSO indicators and the following rainfall variables: rainfall erosivity (EI 30 ), rainfall depth ( P ), erosive rainfall depth ( E ), number of rainfall events (NRE), number of erosive rainfall events (NEE), frequency of occurrence of an early rainfall pattern (EP), occurrence of late rainfall pattern (LP) and occurrence of intermediate rainfall patter (IP). Pearson's coefficient of correlation was used to evaluate the relationships between the rainfall variables and SST and MEI. The coefficients of correlation were significant for SST in the PSM sub-region. Correlations between the rainfall variables and negative oscillations of SST were also significant, especially in the MR sub-region, however, the Person's coefficients were lesser than those obtained for the SST positive oscillations. The correlations between the rainfall variables and MEI were also significant but lesser than the SST correlations. These results demonstrate that SST positive oscillations play a more important role in rainfall erosivity, meaning they were more influenced by El-Niño episodes. Also, these results have shown that the ENSO variables have potential to be useful for rainfall erosivity forecasting in this region.

Description: Extreme runoff response to short-duration convective rainfall in South-West Germany Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10739-10780, 2011 Author(s): V. Ruiz-Villanueva, M. Borga, D. Zoccatelli, L. Marchi, E. Gaume, U. Ehret, and E. Zehe The 2 June 2008 flood-producing storm on the Starzel river basin in South-West Germany is examined as a prototype for organized convective systems that dominate the upper tail of the precipitation frequency distribution and are likely responsible for the flash flood peaks in this region. The availability of high-resolution rainfall estimates from radar observations and a rain gauge network, together with indirect peak discharge estimates from a detailed post-event survey, provides the opportunity to study the hydrometeorological and hydrological mechanisms associated with this extreme storm and the ensuing flood. Radar-derived rainfall, streamgauge data and indirect estimates of peak discharges are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. The influence of storm structure, evolution and motion on the modeled flood hydrograph is examined by using the "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" (Zoccatelli et al., 2011). It is shown that downbasin storm motion had a noticeable impact on flood peak magnitude. Small runoff ratios (less than 20%) characterized the runoff response. The flood response can be reasonably well reproduced with the distributed hydrological model, using high resolution rainfall observations and model parameters calibrated at a river section which includes most of the area impacted by the storm.

Description: Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10635-10677, 2011 Author(s): F. Sienz, O. Bothe, and K. Fraedrich The adequacy of the Gamma distribution (GD) for monthly precipitation totals is reconsidered. The motivation for this study is the observation that the GD fails to represent precipitation in considerable areas of global observed and simulated data. This misrepresentation may lead to erroneous estimates of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), evaluations of models, and assessments of climate change. In this study, the GD is compared to the Weibull (WD), Burr Type III (BD), exponentiated Weibull (EWD) and generalised Gamma (GGD) distribution. These distributions extend the GD in terms of possible shapes (skewness and kurtosis) and the behaviour for large arguments. The comparison is based on the Akaike information criterion, which maximises information entropy, and reveals a trade-off between deviation and the numbers of parameters used. We use monthly sums of observed and simulated precipitation for 12 calendar months of the year. Assessing observed and simulated data (i) the Weibull type distributions give distinctly improved fits compared to the GD and (ii) the SPI resulting from the GD overestimates (underestimates) extreme dryness (wetness).

Description: SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff – a Vietnam river basin study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10679-10705, 2011 Author(s): M. T. Vu, S. V. Raghavan, and S. Y. Liong Many research studies that focus on basin hydrology have used the SWAT model to simulate runoff. One common practice in calibrating the SWAT model is the application of station data rainfall to simulate runoff. But over regions lacking robust station data, there is a problem of applying the model to study the hydrological responses. For some countries and remote areas, the rainfall data availability might be a constraint due to many different reasons such as lacking of technology, war time and financial limitation that lead to difficulty in constructing the runoff data. To overcome such a limitation, this research study uses some of the available globally gridded high resolution precipitation datasets to simulate runoff. Five popular gridded observation precipitation datasets: (1) Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), (2) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), (3) Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN), (4) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), (5) modified Global Historical Climatology Network version 2 (GHCN2) and one reanalysis dataset National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are used to simulate runoff over the Dakbla River (a small tributary of the Mekong River) in Vietnam. Wherever possible, available station data are also used for comparison. Bilinear interpolation of these gridded datasets is used to input the precipitation data at the closest grid points to the station locations. Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-calibration are performed for the SWAT model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Coefficient of Determination ( R 2 ) indices are used to benchmark the model performance. This entails a good understanding of the response of the hydrological model to different datasets and a quantification of the uncertainties in these datasets. Such a methodology is also useful for planning on Rainfall-runoff and even reservoir/river management both at rural and urban scales.

Description: Mass transport of contaminated soil released into surface water by landslides (Göta River, SW Sweden) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10589-10633, 2011 Author(s): G. Göransson, M. Larson, D. Bendz, and M. Åkesson Landslides of contaminated soil into surface water represent an overlooked exposure pathway that has not been addressed properly in existing risk analysis for landslide hazard, contaminated land, or river basin management. A landslide of contaminated soil into surface water implies an instantaneous exposure of the water to the contaminated soil, dramatically changing the prerequisites for the mobilisation and transport of pollutants. In this study, an analytical approach is taken to simulate the transport of suspended matter released in connection with landslides into rivers. Different analytical solutions to the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) were tested against the measured data from the shallow rotational, retrogressive landslide in clayey sediments that took place in 1993 on the Göta River, SW Sweden. The landslide encompassed three distinct events, namely an initial submerged slide, followed by a main slide, and a retrogressive slide. These slides generated three distinct and non-Gaussian peaks in the online turbidity recordings at the freshwater intake downstream the slide area. To our knowledge, this registration of the impact in a river of the sediment release from a landslide is one of the few of its kind in the world, and unique for Sweden considering the low frequency of landslide events, making it highly useful for evaluating how appropriate the ADE is to describe a landslide into surface water. The results yielded realistic predictions of the measured concentration variation, after proper calibration. For the three individual slides it was estimated that a total of about 0.6% (515 000 kg) of the total landslide mass went into suspension/was suspended and was transported downstream. This release corresponds to about 1 to 2% of the annual suspended sediment delivery for that river stretch. The studied landslide partly involved an industrial area and by applying the analytical solution for the transport of metals in the sediments it was found that landslides have the possibility to release a significant amount of pollutants if large contaminated areas are involved. However, further studies are needed to develop more detailed descriptions of the transport processes. There is also a need to increase the knowledge on possible environmental consequences in the near and far field, in a short and long-time perspective. Finally, the risk for the release of pollutants should not be neglected in landslide hazard and risk assessment.

Description: Prioritization of water management under climate change and urbanization using multi-criteria decision making methods Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9889-9925, 2011 Author(s): J.-S. Yang, E.-S. Chung, S.-U. Kim, T.-W. Kim, and Y. D. Kim This paper quantifies the transformed effectiveness of alternatives for watershed management caused by climate change and urbanization and prioritizes five options using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) were obtained by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the urbanization scenario by surveying the existing urban planning. The flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentration duration curves were derived, and the numbers of days required to satisfy the environmental flow requirement and the target BOD concentration were counted using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. In addition, five feasible alternatives were prioritized by using multi-criteria decision making techniques, based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework and cost component. Finally, a sensitivity analysis approach for MCDM methods was conducted to reduce the uncertainty of weights. The result indicates that the most sensitive decision criterion is cost, followed by criteria response, driving force, impact, state and pressure in that order. Since it is certain that the importance of cost component is over 0.127, use of the groundwater collected by subway stations will be the most preferred alternative in this application.

Description: Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10151-10193, 2011 Author(s): P. E. V. van Walsum Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO 2 -concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a good soil or from capillary rise. With good supply of moisture, the dynamic model simulates up to 10% less actual evapotranspiration than the static one in the example. This can lead to cases where the dynamic model predicts a slight increase of the recharge in a climate scenario, where the static model predicts a decrease. The use of a dynamic model also affects the simulated demand for surface water from external sources; especially the timing is affected. The proposed modelling approach uses postulated relationships that require validation with controlled field trials. In the Netherlands there is a lack of experimental facilities for performing such validations.

Description: Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10195-10223, 2011 Author(s): J. Dams, E. Salvadore, T. Van Daele, V. Ntegeka, P. Willems, and O. Batelaan Given the importance of groundwater for food production and drinking water supply, but also for the survival of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this freshwater resource. In this paper we study with high temporal and spatial resolution the impact of 28 climate change scenarios on the groundwater system of a lowland catchment in Belgium. Our results show for the scenario period 2070–2101 compared with the reference period 1960–1991, a change in annual groundwater recharge between −20% and +7%. On average annual groundwater recharge decreases 7%. Seasonally, in most scenarios the recharge increases during winter but decreases during summer. The altered recharge patterns cause the groundwater level to decrease significantly from September to January. On average the groundwater level decreases about 7 cm with a standard deviation between the scenarios of 5 cm. Groundwater levels in interfluves and upstream areas are more sensitive to climate change than groundwater levels in the river valley. Groundwater discharge to GWDTEs is expected to decrease during late summer and autumn as much as 10%, though the discharge remains at reference-period level during winter and early spring. As GWDTEs are strongly influenced by temporal dynamics of the groundwater system, close monitoring of groundwater and implementation of adaptive management measures are required to prevent ecological loss.

Description: Baseflow simulation of SWAT model in an inland river basin in Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10397-10424, 2011 Author(s): Y. Luo, J. Arnold, P. Allen, and X. Chen Baseflow is an important component in hydrological modeling. Complex streamflow recession process complicates the baseflow simulation. In order to simulate the snow and/or glacier melt dominated streamflow receding quickly during high-flow period but very slowly during the low-flow period in rivers in arid and cold Northwest China, the current one-reservoir baseflow approach in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model was extended by adding a slow reacting reservoir and applied to the Manas River basin in Tianshan Mountains. Meanwhile, a digital filter program was employed to separate baseflow from streamflow records for comparisons. Results indicated that the two-reservoir method yielded much better results than the one-reservoir one in reproducing streamflow processes, and the low-flow estimation was improved markedly. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values at the calibration and validation stages are 0.68 and 0.62 for the one-reservoir case, and 0.76 and 0.69 for the two-reservoir case, respectively. The filter-based method estimated the baseflow index as 0.60, while the model-based as o.45. The filter-based baseflow responds almost immediately to surface runoff occurrence at onset of rising limb, while the model-based with a delay. In consideration of watershed surface storage retention and soil freezing/thawing effects on infiltration and recharge during initial snowmelt season, a delay response is considered to be more reasonable. However, a more detailed description of freezing/thawing processes should be included in soil modules so as to determine recharge to aquifer during these processes, and thus an accurate onset point of rising limb of the simulated baseflow.

Description: A pilot operational flood warning system in Andalusia (Spain): presentation and first results Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10425-10463, 2011 Author(s): P.-A. Versini, M. Berenguer, C. Corral, D. Sempere-Torres, and A. Santiago-Gahete The Guadalhorce Basin is located in Andalusia (South of Spain). Its floods have historically represented a major hazard for the city of Málaga. In 2008 it has been decided to implement a pilot operational flood warning system (GFWS) with the aim of analyzing the capability to minimize the risk to people, and economic activity, as well as for guiding water resources management. The system is oriented to provide distributed warnings based on rainfall accumulations and discharge forecasts. Rainfall accumulation maps are generated according to the interpolation of rain gauge measurements and weather radar rainfall maps whereas discharge forecasts are computed using a distributed rainfall-runoff model. Due to the lack of flow measurements, the model was calibrated a priori in most of the basin area. The performance of the system has been tested on two recent rainfall events which caused many inundations. First results show how the GFWS performed well and was able to forecast the location and timing of flooding. It demonstrates that a simple model and a rough calibration could be enough to issue valuable warnings. Moreover, the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) forecasts have been used to prevent from the flood several days in advance. With low resolution and long anticipation, EFAS appears as a good complement tool to improve flood forecasting and compensate for the short lead times of the GFWS.

Description: Quantitative analysis on the ecological impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10465-10500, 2011 Author(s): D. H. Yan, H. Wang, H. H. Li, G. Wang, T. L. Qin, D. Y. Wang, and L. H. Wang The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is a key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatiotemporal change of water resources to reinforce the guarantee of the access of water resources. And large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes the uncertainty and additive effect of the ecological impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of large-scale water transfer projects in both construction and operation has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis on the eco-environment of the study area, the influence factors were identified and evaluation indexes were established. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to imitate the laws of ecological and environmental change of the water resource area in a changing climate. The emphasis of influence analysis and quantitative evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites. In the end, an overall influence evaluation of the impact of the project on the water circulation and ecological evolution of the water resource area was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects, i.e. the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water transfer. Its impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

Description: Hydrological heterogeneity in Mediterranean reclaimed slopes: runoff and sediment yield at the patch and slope scales along a gradient of overland flow Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9927-9959, 2011 Author(s): L. Merino-Martín, M. Moreno-de las Heras, S. Pérez-Domingo, T. Espigares, and J. M. Nicolau Hydrological heterogeneity is recognized as a fundamental ecosystem attribute in drylands controlling the flux of water and energy through landscapes. Therefore, mosaics of runoff and sediment sinks and source patches are frequently identified in these dry environments. There is a remarkable scarcity of studies about hydrological spatial heterogeneity in restored slopes, where ecological succession and overland flow are interacting. We conducted a field research to study the hydrological role of patches and slopes along an overland flow gradient in three reclaimed slopes coming from mining reclamation in a Mediterranean-continental climate. We found that runoff generation and routing in non-rilled slopes showed a pattern of source and sink areas of runoff. Such hydrological microenvironments were associated to seven vegetation patches (characterized by plant community types and cover). Two types of sink patches were identified: shrub Genista scorpius patches could be considered as a "deep sink", while patches where the graminoids Brachypodium retusum and Lolium perenne dominate were classified as "surface sinks" or "runoff splays". A variety of source patches were also identified spanning from "extreme sources" ( Medicago sativa patches; equivalent to bare soil) to "poor sources" (areas scattered by dwarf-shrubs of Thymus vulgaris or herbaceous tussocks of Dactylis glomerata ). Finally, we identified the volume of overland flow routing along the slope as a controlling major factor of hydrological diversity: when overland flow increases at the slope scale hydrological diversity diminishes.

Description: Meta-analysis of the effects of soil properties, site factors and experimental conditions on preferential solute transport Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10007-10052, 2011 Author(s): J. K. Koestel, J. Moeys, and N. J. Jarvis Preferential flow is a widespread phenomenon that is known to strongly affect solute transport in soil, but our understanding and knowledge is still poor of the site factors and soil properties that promote it. To investigate these relationships, we assembled a database from the peer-reviewed literature containing information on 793 breakthrough curve experiments under steady-state flow conditions. Most of the collected experiments (642 of the 793 datasets) had been conducted on undisturbed soil columns, although some experiments on repacked soil, clean sands, and glass beads were also included. In addition to the apparent dispersivity, we focused attention on three potential indicators of preferential solute transport, namely the 5%-arrival time, the holdback factor, and the ratio of piston-flow and average transport velocities. Our results suggest that in contrast to the 5%-arrival time and the holdback factor, the piston-flow to transport velocity ratio is not related to preferential macropore transport but rather to the exclusion or retardation of the applied tracer. Confirming that the apparent longitudinal dispersivity is positively correlated with the travel distance of the tracer, our results also illustrate that this correlation is refined if the normalized 5%-tracer arrival time is also taken into account. In particular, we found that the degree of preferential solute transport increases with apparent dispersivity and decreases with travel distance. A similar but weaker relationship was observed between apparent dispersivity, 5%-tracer arrival time, and lateral observation scale, such that the strength of preferential transport increases with lateral observation scale. However, we also found that the travel distance and the lateral observation scale in the investigated dataset are correlated which makes it difficult to distinguish their influence on these transport characteristics. We observed that anionic tracers exhibited larger apparent dispersivities than electrically neutral tracers under comparable experimental conditions. We also found that the strength of preferential transport increased at larger flow rates and water saturations, which suggests that macropore flow was a more important flow mechanism than heterogeneous flow in the soil matrix. Nevertheless, our data shows that heterogeneous flow in the soil matrix also occasionally leads to strong preferential transport. Furthermore, we show that preferential solute transport under steady-state flow depends on soil texture in a threshold-like manner: moderate to strong preferential transport was found to occur only for undisturbed soils which contain more than 8% clay. Preferential flow characteristics were also absent for columns filled with glass beads, clean sands, or sieved soil. No clear effect of land use on the pattern of solute transport could be discerned, probably because the available dataset was too small and too much affected by cross-correlations with experimental conditions. Our results suggest that in developing pedotransfer functions for solute transport properties of soils it is critically important to account for travel distance, lateral observation scale, and water flow rate and saturation.

Description: Implications of deep drainage through saline clay for groundwater recharge and sustainable cropping in a semi-arid catchment, Australia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10053-10093, 2011 Author(s): W. A. Timms, R. R. Young, and N. Huth The magnitude and timing of deep drainage and salt leaching through clay soils is a critical issue for dryland agriculture in semi-arid regions (

Description: Accounting for seasonality in a soil moisture change detection algorithm for ASAR Wide Swath time series Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10333-10367, 2011 Author(s): J. Van doninck, J. Peters, H. Lievens, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest A change detection algorithm is applied on a three year time series of ASAR Wide Swath images in VV polarization over Calabria, Italy, in order to derive information on temporal soil moisture dynamics. The algorithm, adapted from an algorithm originally developed for ERS Scatterometer, was validated using a simple hydrological model incorporating meteorological and pedological data. Strong positive correlations between modelled soil moisture and ASAR soil moisture were observed over arable land, while the correlation became much weaker over more vegetated areas. In a second phase, an attempt was made to incorporate seasonality in the different model parameters. It was observed that seasonally changing vegetation and soil moisture mainly affected the multitemporal incidence angle normalization. When applying a seasonal angular normalization, correlation coefficients between modelled soil moisture and retrieved soil moisture increased overall. Attempts to account for seasonality in the other model parameters did not result in an improved performance.

Description: Potentials and limits of urban rainwater harvesting in the Middle East Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10369-10396, 2011 Author(s): J. Lange, S. Husary, A. Gunkel, D. Bastian, and T. Grodek In the Middle East, water is scarce and population growth causes a rapid rise of urban centers. Since many towns of the Palestinian Authority (PA) suffer from water shortage, the use of rainwater harvesting (RWH) as an alternative to conventional water supply has gained increasing interest among water resources planners. This study quantifies actual volumes of urban RWH to be expected from highly variable Mediterranean rainfall. A one-parameter model uses measured potential evaporation and high resolution rainfall data as input to calculate RWH volumes from rooftops inside Ramallah, a traditional Arab town. While during average seasons a 87% runoff harvest (480 from 550 mm of rainfall) can be expected, this value decreases to about 75% (190 from 250 mm of rainfall) during drought seasons. A survey comprising more than 500 questionnaires suggests that approximately 40% of the houses are equipped with RWH systems from which one third are out of use. Although water quality is perceived to be favourable, only 3% of the active RWH systems are actually used for drinking and only 18% for domestic purposes. All active RWH systems investigated may harvest approximately 16 × 10 3 m 3 of rooftop runoff during an average season and 6 × 10 3 m 3 during droughts. When these numbers are extrapolated to all houses in Ramallah, theoretical maximum potentials increase to approximately 298 × 10 3 m 3 during average seasons and 118 × 10 3 m 3 during droughts. A part of this potential can easily be exhausted by rehabilitation of installed RWH systems. Also, the use of collected water for drinking should be advocated. This should go along with regular checks of water quality and regulations concerning adequate water storage and treatment/disinfection procedures where necessary. Regional estimates for the entire Lower Jordan River Basin yielded RWH potentials of 20 × 10 6 m 3 during the average season 2002/2003 but only 3 × 10 6 m 3 during the drought season 1998/1999. Thus, urban RWH is a relatively small contribution to overcome water scarcity in the region and decreases significantly during droughts. Yet it is a sustainable water resource, which is available on spot for everybody. Due to population growth and ongoing urbanization it will be more important in future.

Description: A soil moisture and temperature network for SMOS validation in Western Denmark Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9961-10006, 2011 Author(s): S. Bircher, N. Skou, K. H. Jensen, J. P. Walker, and L. Rasmussen The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Mission (SMOS) acquires surface soil moisture data globally, and thus product validation for a range of climate and environmental conditions across continents is a crucial step. For this purpose, a soil moisture and temperature network of Decagon ECH2O 5TE capacitance sensors was established in the Skjern River Catchment, Denmark. The objectives of this article are to describe a method to implement a network suited for SMOS validation, and to present sample data collected by the network to verify the approach. The design phase included (1) selection of a single SMOS pixel (44 × 44 km), which is representative of the land surface conditions of the catchment and with minimal impact from open water (2) arrangement of three network clusters along the precipitation gradient, and (3) distribution of the stations according to respective fractions of classes representing the prevailing environmental conditions. Overall, measured moisture and temperature patterns could be related to the respective land cover and soil conditions. Texture-dependency of the 0–5 cm soil moisture measurements was demonstrated. Regional differences in 0–5 cm soil moisture, temperature and precipitation between the north-east and south-west were found to be small. A first comparison between the 0–5 cm network averages and the SMOS soil moisture (level 2) product is in range with worldwide validation results, showing comparable trends for SMOS retrieved/initial soil moisture and initial temperature ( R 2 of 0.49/0.67 and 0.97, respectively). While retrieved/initial soil moisture indicate significant under-/overestimation of the network data (biases of −0.092/0.057 m 3 m −3 ), temperature is in good agreement (bias of −0.2 °C). Consequently, the network performs according to expectations and proves to be well-suited for its purpose. The discrepancies between network and SMOS soil moisture will be subject of subsequent studies.

Description: A climate-flood link for the lower Mekong River Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10125-10149, 2011 Author(s): J. M. Delgado, B. Merz, and H. Apel The Mekong River in Southeast Asia thanks its regular annual flood to the southwest monsoon. At longer time scales, the monsoon is a spatially and temporally variable circulation, with different annual to millennial variation for different regions. In this paper, the Indian and the Western Pacific component of the monsoon were analyzed to draw a light on the interannual flood variability of the Mekong River. The focus is on the variance of flood season flows at 8 stations on the Mekong River, as well as on well-known climate indexes that reflect the dynamics of the monsoon circulation and ocean temperature anomalies. An effort was made to identify the temporal resolution that contains most of the interannual variability of both flood regime of the Mekong and monsoon intensity. We found a close connection between the Western Pacific monsoon and the discharge in Kratie and other stations in the Southern Mekong region. In the frequency domain, the interannual to decadal variance of the Mekong discharge closely follows that of the Western Pacific monsoon. More importantly, the well-known regime shift of 1976 in the North Pacific is detectable in the frequency space for flood discharge and monsoon intensity. This suggests a relationship between Pacific sea surface temperature and monsoon variance, which is a good predictor for flood variance. This dependence influences the probability of occurrence of floods in the Mekong Delta.

Description: Investigation of groundwater-surface water interaction using hydrochemical sampling with high temporal resolution, Mangatarere catchment, New Zealand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10225-10273, 2011 Author(s): M. R. Guggenmos, B. M. Jackson, and C. J. Daughney The interaction between groundwater and surface water is dynamic and is known to show considerable spatial and temporal variability. Generally hydrological studies that investigate this interaction are conducted at weekly to yearly timescales and inadvertently lose information contained at the neglected shorter timescales. This paper utilises high resolution physical and chemical measurements to investigate the groundwater and surface water interactions of the small temperate Mangatarere Stream in New Zealand. Continuous electrical conductivity, water temperature and stage measurements were obtained at two surface water gauging stations and one groundwater station, along with one week of intensive hydrochemical grab sampling. A second groundwater gauging station provided limited additional data. The downstream reach of the Mangatarere Stream received significant base flow from neighbouring groundwaters which provided cool Na + -Cl − type waters, high in TDS and NO − 3 concentrations. This reach also lost water to underlying groundwaters during an extended dry period when precipitation and regional groundwater stage were low. The upstream groundwater station received recharge primarily from precipitation as indicated by a Na + -Cl − -NO − 3 signature, the result of precipitation passage through the soil-water zone. However, river recharge was also provided to the upstream groundwater station as indicated by the transferral of a diurnal water temperature pattern and dilute Na + -Ca 2+ -Mg 2+ -HCO 3 − -Cl − signature. Results obtained from the Mangatarere catchment confirm the temporal complexities of groundwater and surface water interaction and highlight the benefits of multiple investigative approaches and the importance of high frequency hydrochemical sampling and monitoring for process understanding.

Description: Turbulent flux modelling with a simple 2-layer soil model and extrapolated surface temperature applied at Nam Co Lake basin on the Tibetan Plateau Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10275-10309, 2011 Author(s): T. Gerken, W. Babel, A. Hoffmann, T. Biermann, M. Herzog, A. D. Friend, M. Li, Y. Ma, T. Foken, and H.-F. Graf This paper introduces a surface model with two soil-layers for use in a high-resolution circulation model that has been modified with an extrapolated surface temperature, to be used for the calculation of turbulent fluxes. A quadratic temperature profile based on the layer mean and base temperature is assumed in each layer and extended to the surface. The model is tested at two sites on the Tibetan Plateau near Nam Co Lake during four days during the 2009 Monsoon season. In comparison to a two-layer model without explicit surface temperature estimate, there is a greatly reduced delay in diurnal flux cycles and the modelled surface temperature is much closer to observations. Comparison with a SVAT model and eddy covariance measurements shows an overall reasonable model performance based on RMSD and cross correlation comparisons between the modified and original model. A potential limitation of the model is the need for careful initialisation of the initial soil temperature profile, that requires field measurements. We show that the modified model is capable of reproducing fluxes of similar magnitudes and dynamics as the more complex methods chosen as reference.

Description: Stochastic analysis of field-scale heat advection in heterogeneous aquifers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10311-10331, 2011 Author(s): C.-M. Chang and H.-D. Yeh Owing to the analogy between the solute and heat transport processes, it can be expected that the rate of growth of the spatial second moments of the heat flux in a heterogeneous aquifer over relatively large space scales is greater than that predicted by applying the classical heat transport model. The motivation of stochastic analysis of heat transport at the field scale is therefore to quantify the enhanced growth of the field-scale second moments caused by the spatially varying specific discharge field. Within the framework of stochastic theory, an effective advection-dispersion equation containing effective parameters (namely, the macrodispersion coefficients) is developed to model the mean temperature field. The rate of growth of the field-scale spatial second moments of the mean temperature field in the principal coordinate directions is described by the macrodispersion coefficient. The variance of the temperature field is also developed to characterize the reliability to be anticipated in applying the mean heat transport model. It is found that the heterogeneity of the medium and the correlation length of the log hydraulic conductivity are important in enhancing the field-scale heat advection, while the effective thermal conductivity plays the role in reducing the field-scale heat advection.

Description: Calibration of the modified Bartlett-Lewis model using global optimization techniques and alternative objective functions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9707-9756, 2011 Author(s): W. J. Vanhaute, S. Vandenberghe, K. Scheerlinck, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest The use of rainfall time series for various applications is widespread. However, in many cases historical rainfall records lack in length or quality for certain practical purposes, resulting in a reliance on rainfall models to supply simulated rainfall time series, e.g., in the design of hydraulic structures. One way to obtain such simulations is by means of stochastic point process rainfall models, such as the Bartlett-Lewis type of model. It is widely acknowledged that the calibration of such models suffers from the presence of multiple local minima which local search algorithms usually fail to avoid. To meet this shortcoming, four relatively new global optimization methods are presented and tested for their abilities to calibrate the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Model (MBL). The list of tested methods consists of: the Downhill Simplex Method (DSM), Simplex-Simulated Annealing (SIMPSA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA). The parameters of these algorithms are first optimized to ensure optimal performance, after which they are used for calibration of the MBL model. Furthermore, this paper addresses the issue of subjectivity in the choice of weights in the objective function. Three alternative weighing methods are compared to determine whether or not simulation results (obtained after calibration with the best optimization method) are influenced by the choice of weights.

Description: Multi-offset ground-penetrating radar imaging of a lab-scale infiltration test Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 10095-10123, 2011 Author(s): A. R. Mangel, S. M. J. Moysey, J. C. Ryan, and J. A. Tarbutton A lab scale infiltration experiment was conducted to evaluate the use of transient multi-offset ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data for characterizing dynamic hydrologic events in the vadose zone. A unique GPR data acquisition setup allowed sets of 21 traces at different offsets to be recorded every 30 s during a 3 h infiltration experiment. The result is a rich GPR data cube that can be viewed as multi-offset gathers at discrete moments in time or as common offset images that track changes in the GPR arrivals over the course of the experiment. These data allows us to continuously resolve the depth to soil boundaries while simultaneously tracking changes in wave velocity, which are strongly associated with soil water content variations. During the experiment the average volumetric water content estimated in the tank ranged between 10–30% with discrepancies between the GPR results, moisture probe data, and 1-D numerical modeling on the order of 3–5% (vol vol −1 ), though the patterns of the estimated water content over time were consistent for both wetting and drying cycles. Relative errors in the estimated depth to a soil boundary located 60 cm from the surface of the tank were typically on the order of 2% over the course of the experiment. During the period when a wetting front migrated downward through the tank, however, errors in the estimated depth of this boundary were as high as 25%, primarily as a result of wave interference between arrivals associated with the wetting front and soil boundary. Given that our analysis assumed one-dimensional, vertical infiltration, this high error could also suggest that more exhaustive GPR data and comprehensive analysis methods are needed to accurately image non-uniform flow produced during periods of intense infiltration. Regardless, we were able to track the movement of the wetting front through the tank and found a reasonably good correlation with in-situ water content measurements. We conclude that transient multi-offset GPR data are capable of quantitatively monitoring dynamic soil hydrologic processes.

Description: Technical Note: Analytical sensitivity analysis of a two parameter recursive digital baseflow separation filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9469-9480, 2011 Author(s): K. Eckhardt A sensitivity analysis for a well established baseflow separation technique, a two parameter recursive digital filter, is presented. The propagation of errors or uncertainties of the two filter parameters into the calculated baseflow index is analytically ascertained. Representative sensitivity indices (defined as the ratio between the relative error of the baseflow index and the relative error of the respective parameter) are derived by application of the resulting equations to a great number of catchments. It is found that in the mean the parameter a , the recession constant, has a stronger influence on the calculated baseflow index than the second filter parameter BFI max . This is favourable in that a can be determined by a recession analysis and therefore should be less uncertain. Whether this finding also applies for a specific catchment can easily be checked by means of the derived equations.

Description: Real-time flood forecasting by employing artificial neural network based model with zoning matching approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9357-9393, 2011 Author(s): M. Sulaiman, A. El-Shafie, O. Karim, and H. Basri Flood forecasting models are a necessity, as they help in planning for flood events, and thus help prevent loss of lives and minimize damage. At present, artificial neural networks (ANN) have been successfully applied in river flow and water level forecasting studies. ANN requires historical data to develop a forecasting model. However, long-term historical water level data, such as hourly data, poses two crucial problems in data training. First is that the high volume of data slows the computation process. Second is that data training reaches its optimal performance within a few cycles of data training, due to there being a high volume of normal water level data in the data training, while the forecasting performance for high water level events is still poor. In this study, the zoning matching approach (ZMA) is used in ANN to accurately monitor flood events in real time by focusing the development of the forecasting model on high water level zones. ZMA is a trial and error approach, where several training datasets using high water level data are tested to find the best training dataset for forecasting high water level events. The advantage of ZMA is that relevant knowledge of water level patterns in historical records is used. Importantly, the forecasting model developed based on ZMA successfully achieves high accuracy forecasting results at 1 to 3 h ahead and satisfactory performance results at 6 h. Seven performance measures are adopted in this study to describe the accuracy and reliability of the forecasting model developed.

Description: Changes in discharge and solute dynamics between a hillslope and a valley-bottom intermittent streams Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9505-9536, 2011 Author(s): S. Bernal and F. Sabater We investigated differences on stream water flux as well as on chloride, carbon and nitrogen dynamics between two semiarid nested catchments, one at the hillslope and the other one at the valley-bottom. The two streams were intermittent, yet only the valley-bottom stream was embraced by a riparian forest and a well-developed alluvium with highly conductive coarse sediments. We found that stream water flux decreased by more than 40% from the hillslope to the valley-bottom during hydrological transition periods (from dry-to-wet and from wet-to-dry conditions), coinciding with periods when stream-to-aquifer fluxes prevailed. During the hydrological transition period, stream export of chloride, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon decreased 34–97% between the hillslope and the valley-bottom catchments. There was a strong correlation between monthly differences in stream discharge and in stream Cl − export between the two catchments. In contrast, monthly differences in stream export for bio-reactive solutes were only partially explained by stream discharge. In annual terms, stream nitrate export from the valley-bottom catchment (0.32 ± 0.12 kg N ha −1 yr −1 – average ± standard deviation) was 30–50% lower than from the hillslope catchment (0.56 ± 0.32 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ). Although the riparian forest could be an extra source of organic matter to the valley-bottom stream, the annual export of dissolved organic carbon was similar between the two catchments (1.8 ± 1 kg C ha −1 yr −1 ). Our results suggested that stream hydrology was a strong driver of stream solute export during the hydrological transition period, and that hydrological retention in the alluvial zone could contribute to reduce stream water and solute export under semiarid conditions in the valley-bottom stream.

Description: A hierarchical approach on groundwater-surface water interaction in wetlands along the upper Biebrza River, Poland Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9537-9585, 2011 Author(s): C. Anibas, B. Verbeiren, K. Buis, J. Chormański, L. De Doncker, T. Okruszko, P. Meire, and O. Batelaan Groundwater-surface water exchange studies on natural rivers and wetlands dominated by organic soils are scarce. We present a hierarchical approach to quantitatively investigate and interpret groundwater-surface water interaction in space and time by applying a combination of different field methods including piezometer nests, temperature and seepage measurements. The numerical 1-D heat transport model of STRIVE is used in transient mode to calculate vertical fluxes from thermal profiles measured along the upper Biebrza River, Poland over a period of nine months. The calculated fluxes show no clear spatial pattern of exchange fluxes unless an interpolation of the point estimates on a reach scale is performed. Significance of differences in net exchange rates versus morphological features are investigated with statistical tests. Time series of temperature and hydraulic head of the hyporheic zone are used to estimate the temporal variability of the groundwater-surface water exchange. Seepage meter measurements and slug tests were used for cross validation of modelled fluxes. Results show a strong heterogeneity of the thermal and physical soil properties along the reach, leading to a classification of these parameters for modelling purposes. The groundwater-surface water exchange shows predominantly upward water fluxes, however alternating sections of recharge exist. The exchange fluxes are significantly different dependent on the position of the river in the valley floor and the river morphology where fluxes are more dependent on hydraulic gradients than on river bed conductivity. Sections of higher fluxes are linked to the vicinity of the morainic plateau surrounding the rivers alluvium and to meanders, indicating that a perspective on the fluvio-plain scale is required for interpreting the estimated exchange fluxes. Since the vertical component of the exchange fluxes cannot explain the magnitude of the change in river discharge, a lateral flow component across the alluvial plain has to be responsible. The hierarchical methodology increases the confidence in the estimated exchange fluxes and improves the process understanding, however the accuracy of the measurements and related uncertainties remain challenges for wetland environments.

Description: Developing a novel approach to analyse the regimes of temporary streams and their controls on aquatic biota Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9637-9673, 2011 Author(s): F. Gallart, N. Prat, E. M. García-Roger, J. Latron, M. Rieradevall, P. Llorens, G. G. Barberá, D. Brito, A. M. De Girolamo, A. Lo Porto, R. Neves, N. P. Nikolaidis, J. L. Perrin, E. P. Querner, J. M. Quiñonero, M. G. Tournoud, O. Tzoraki, and J. Froebrich Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. The use of the aquatic fauna structural and functional characteristics to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach can not therefore be made without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops some methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: flood, riffles, connected, pools, dry and arid . We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations using rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states using the developed aquatic states frequency graph . The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics based on the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of the aquatic regimes of temporary streams in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is put forward, defining Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic regime types. All these methods were tested with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean from MIRAGE project and its application was a precondition to assess the ecological quality of these streams using the current methods prescribed in the European Water Framework Directive for macroinvertebrate communities.

Description: Estimation of soil redistribution rates due to snow cover related processes in a mountainous area (Valle d'Aosta, NW Italy) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 8533-8563, 2011 Author(s): E. Ceaglio, K. Meusburger, M. Freppaz, E. Zanini, and C. Alewell Mountain areas are widely affected by soil erosion, which is commonly linked to runoff processes. Also winter processes, like snow gliding and full-depth avalanches, may be important factors that can enhance soil erosion, however the role and importance of snow movements as agents of soil redistribution are not well understood yet. The aim of this study is to provide information on the relative importance of snow related soil erosion processes in comparison to runoff processes. In the study area, which is an avalanche path characterized by intense snow movements and soil erosion, soil redistribution rates were quantified with two methods: (i) by field measurements of sediment yield in an avalanche deposition area during 2009 and 2010 winter seasons; (ii) by Caesium-137 method, which supplies the cumulative net soil loss/gain since 1986, including winter and summer soil erosion processes. The soil erosion rates estimated from the sediment yield at the avalanche deposit area (3.2 and 20.8 Mg ha −1 event −1 ) is comparable to the yearly erosion rates (averaged since 1986) estimated with the Cs-137 method (8.8–13.4 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ). The soil accumulation rate estimated with data from the avalanche deposition area (28.2 and 160.7 Mg ha −1 event −1 ) is even more intense than the yearly deposition rates estimated with Cs-137 (8.9–12.6 Mg ha −1 yr −1 ). This might be due to the high relevance of the two investigated avalanche events and/or to the discrepancy between the long-term (since 1986) signal of the Cs-137 method compared to rates of 2009 and 2010. Even though the comparability is limited by the different time scale of the applied methods, both methods yielded similar magnitudes of soil redistribution rates indicating that soil erosion due to snow movements is the main driving force of soil redistribution in the area. Therefore winter processes have to be taken into account when assessing soil erosion as they significantly contribute to soil redistribution in mountainous areas.

Description: A simple water-energy balance framework to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 8793-8830, 2011 Author(s): M. Renner, R. Seppelt, and C. Bernhofer Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009) presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We provide a theoretical foundation of this concept by showing that it is based on a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. The concept uses a special condition that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing. Here we apply this assumption and derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity on climate. We show how climate sensitivity is influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the new method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods.

Description: Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6639-6681, 2011 Author(s): J. S. Verkade and M. G. F. Werner Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed floods, or surprises. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for in estimates of the benefits of FFWRSs. In the present paper, a method to estimate the benefits of (imperfect) FFWRSs in reducing flood risk is presented. These benefits include not only the reduction of flood losses due to a warning response, but also consider the costs of the warning response itself, as well as the costs associated with forecasting uncertainty. The method allows for estimation of the benefits of FFWRSs that use either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. Through application to a case study, it is shown that FFWRSs using a probabilistic forecast have the potential to realise higher benefits at all lead-times. However, it is also shown that provision of warning at increasing lead-time does not necessarily lead to an increasing reduction of flood risk, but rather that an optimal lead-time at which warnings are provided can be established as a function of forecast uncertainty and the cost-loss ratio of the user receiving and responding to the warning.

Description: Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6593-6637, 2011 Author(s): T. Liu, P. Willems, X. L. Pan, An. M. Bao, X. Chen, F. Veroustraete, and Q. H. Dong The Tarim river basin in China is a huge inland arid basin, which is expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water resources originate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs) and applied on the station based observed historical data using a perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation to the wet-day rainfall intensities. For temperature and potential evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs) were summarized in high, mean and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous areas. Due to temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods are pushed forward in time. Although the qualitive impact results are highly consistent among the different GCM runs considered, the precise quantitative impact results varied significantly depending on the GCM run and the hydrological model.

Description: Deepwater Horizon oil spill impacts on Alabama beaches Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6721-6747, 2011 Author(s): J. S. Hayworth, T. P. Clement, and J. F. Valentine From mid June 2010 to early August 2010, the white sandy beaches along Alabama's Gulf coast were inundated with crude oil discharged from the Deepwater Horizon well. The long-term consequences of this environmental catastrophe are still unfolding. Although BP has attempted to clean up some of these beaches, there still exist many unanswered questions regarding the physical, chemical, and ecological state of the oil contaminated beach system. In this paper, we present our understanding of what is known and known to be unknown with regard to the current state of Alabama's beaches in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Motivated by our observations of the evolving distribution of oil in Alabama's beaches and BP's clean-up activities, we offer our thoughts on the lessons learned from this oil spill disaster.

Description: Simple physics-based models of compensatory plant water uptake: concepts and eco-hydrological consequences Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6789-6831, 2011 Author(s): N. J. Jarvis Many land surface schemes and simulation models of plant growth designed for practical use employ simple empirical sub-models of root water uptake that cannot adequately reflect the critical role water uptake from sparsely rooted deep subsoil plays in meeting atmospheric transpiration demand in water-limited environments, especially in the presence of shallow groundwater. A failure to account for this so-called "compensatory" water uptake may have serious consequences for both local and global modeling of water and energy fluxes, carbon balances and climate. Some purely empirical compensatory root water uptake models have been proposed, but they are of limited use in global modeling exercises since their parameters cannot be related to measurable soil and vegetation properties. Parsimonious physics-based models of uptake compensation have been developed that require no more parameters than empirical approaches. These models are described and compared from a conceptual point of view and some aspects of their behavior, including the phenomenon of hydraulic lift, are illustrated with the help of example simulations. These analyses demonstrate that the degree of compensation is a function of soil capillarity and the ratio of total effective root length to potential transpiration. Thus, uptake compensation increases as root to leaf area ratios increase, since potential transpiration depends on leaf area. Results of "scenario" simulations for two case studies, one at the local scale (riparian vegetation growing above shallow water tables in seasonally dry or arid climates) and one at a global scale (water balances across an aridity gradient in the continental USA), are presented to illustrate biases in model predictions that arise when water uptake compensation is neglected. In the first case, it is shown that only a compensated model can match the strong relationships between water table depth and leaf area and transpiration observed in riparian forest ecosystems, where sparse roots in the capillary fringe contribute a significant proportion of the water uptake during extended dry periods. The results of the second case study suggest that uncompensated models may give biased estimates of long-term evapotranspiration at the continental scale. In the example presented here, the uncompensated model underestimated total evapotranspiration by 5–7% in climates of intermediate aridity, while the ratio of transpiration to evaporation was also smaller than for the compensated model, especially in arid climates. It is concluded that the parsimonious physics-based model concepts described here may be useful in the context of eco-hydrological modeling at local, regional and global scales.

Description: Groundwater flow inverse modeling in non-MultiGaussian media: performance assessment of the normal-score Ensemble Kalman Filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6749-6788, 2011 Author(s): L. Li, H. Zhou, H. J. Hendricks Franssen, and J. J. Gómez-Hernández The normal-score ensemble Kalman filter (NS-EnKF) is tested on a synthetic aquifer characterized by the presence of channels with a bimodal distribution of its hydraulic conductivities. Fourteen scenarios are analyzed which differ among them in one or various of the following aspects: the prior random function model, the boundary conditions of the flow problem, the number of piezometers used in the assimilation process, or the use of covariance localization in the implementation of the Kalman filter. The performance of the NS-EnKF is evaluated through the ensemble mean and variance maps, the connectivity patterns of the individual conductivity realizations and the degree of reproduction of the piezometric heads. The results show that (i) the localized NS-EnKF can identify correctly the channels when a large number of conditioning piezometers are used even when an erroneous prior random function model is used, (ii) localization plays an important role to prevent filter inbreeding and results in a better logconductivity characterization, and (iii) the NS-EnKF works equally well under very different flow configurations.

Description: The impact of land surface temperature on soil moisture anomaly detection from passive microwave observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 6683-6719, 2011 Author(s): R. M. Parinussa, T. R. H. Holmes, and W. T. Crow For several years passive microwave observations have been used to retrieve soil moisture from the Earth's surface. Low frequency observations have the most sensitivity to soil moisture, therefore the modern Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and future Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellite missions observe the Earth's surface in the L-band frequency. In the past, several satellite sensors such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) and Windsat have been used to retrieve surface soil moisture using multi-channel observations obtained at higher microwave frequencies. While AMSR-E and Windsat lack an L-band channel, they are able to leverage multi-channel microwave observations to estimate additional land surface parameters. In particular, the availability of Ka-band observations allows AMSR-E and Windsat to obtain surface temperature estimates required for the retrieval of surface soil moisture. In contrast, SMOS and SMAP carry only a single frequency radiometer. Because of this, ancillary – and potentially less accurate – sources of surface temperature information (e.g. re-analysis data from operational weather prediction centers) must be sought to produce surface soil moisture retrievals. Here, two newly-developed, large-scale soil moisture evaluation techniques, the triple collocation (TC) approach and the R value data assimilation approach, are applied to quantify the global-scale impact of replacing Ka-band based surface temperature retrievals with Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) surface temperature predictions on the accuracy of Windsat and AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals. Results demonstrate that under sparsely vegetated conditions, the use of Ka-band radiometric land surface temperature leads to better soil moisture anomaly estimates compared to those retrieved using MERRA land surface temperature predictions. However the situation is reversed for highly vegetated conditions where soil moisture anomaly estimates retrieved using MERRA land surface temperature are superior. In addition, the surface temperature phase shifting approach is shown to generally enhance the value of MERRA surface temperature estimates for soil moisture retrieval. Finally, a high degree of consistency is noted between evaluation results produced by the TC and R value soil moisture verification approaches.

Description: Validation of two precipitation data sets for the Rhine River Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 5465-5496, 2011 Author(s): C. S. Photiadou, A. H. Weerts, and B. J. J. M. van den Hurk This paper evaluates a number of recently constructed or extended precipitation data sets used for hydrological applications and climate change studies in the Rhine basin. Firstly, the existing precipitation data set issued by the Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR), originally covering the period 1961–1995, was extended until 2008 using a number of additional precipitation data sets. The length extension permits the assessment of extreme discharge and precipitation values with lower uncertainty than the original version. Secondly, the E-OBS Version 4 (ECA&D gridded data set) was evaluated for its performance in the Rhine basin for extreme events. The two extended precipitation data sets and a meteorological reanalysis data set were used to force a hydrological model, evaluating the influence of different precipitation forcings on the annual mean and extreme discharges compared to observational discharges for the period from 1990 until 2008. The extended version of CHR showed good agreement in terms of mean annual cycle, extreme discharge (both high and low flows), and spatial distribution of correlations with observed discharge. E-OBS performed well with respect to extreme discharge, but its performance of the mean annual cycle was rather poor in winter and remarkably well in the summer.

Description: Controls on hydrologic similarity: role of nearby gauged catchments for prediction at an ungauged catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9323-9355, 2011 Author(s): S. Patil and M. Stieglitz Prediction of streamflows at ungauged catchments requires transfer of hydrologic information (e.g., model parameters, hydrologic indices, streamflow values) from gauged (donor) to ungauged (receiver) catchments. One of the most reliable metrics for selection of ideal donor catchments is the spatial proximity between donor and receiver catchments. However, it is not clear whether information transfer among nearby catchments is suitable across a wide range of climatic and geographic regions. We examine this issue using the data from 756 catchments within the continental United States. Each catchment is considered ungauged in turn and daily streamflow is simulated through distance-based interpolation of streamflows from neighboring catchments. Results show that distinct geographic regions exist in US where transfer of streamflow values from nearby catchments is useful for retrospective prediction of daily streamflow at ungauged catchments. Specifically, the high predictability catchments (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency NS 〉 0.7) are confined to the Appalachian Mountains in eastern US, the Rocky Mountains, and the Cascade Mountains in the Pacific Northwest. Low predictability catchments (NS 〈 0.3) are located mostly in the drier regions west of Mississippi river, which demonstrates the limited utility of gauged catchments in those regions for predicting at ungauged basins. The results suggest that high streamflow similarity among nearby catchments (and therefore, good predictability at ungauged catchments) is more likely in humid runoff-dominated regions than in dry evapotranspiration-dominated regions. We further find that higher density and/or closer distance of gauged catchments near an ungauged catchment does not necessarily guarantee good predictability at an ungauged catchment.

Description: Probing on suitability of TRMM data to explain spatio-temporal pattern of severe storms in tropic region Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9435-9468, 2011 Author(s): A. Akbari, F. Othman, and A. Abu Samah Spatial and temporal pattern of rainfall play an important role in runoff generation. Raingauge density influences the accuracy of spatial pattern and time interval influence the accuracy of temporal pattern of storms. Usually due to practical and financial limitation the perfect distribution is not achievable. Several sources of data are used to define the behavior of rainfall over a watershed. Raingauges station, radar operation and satellite sensor are the main source of rainfall estimation over the space and time. Recording raingauges are the most common source of rainfall data in many countries. However raingauge network has not adequate coverage in many watersheds spatially in developing countries. Therefore other global source of rainfall data may be useful for hydrological analysis such as flood modeling. This research assessed the ability of TRMM rainfall estimates for explain the Spatio-temporal pattern of severe storm over Klang watershed which is a hydrologically well instrumented watershed. It was experienced that TRMM rainfall estimates are 35% less than actual data for the investigated events. Due to coarse temporal resolution of TRMM (3 h) compare to gauge rainfall (15 min), significant uncertainty influences identifying the start and end of storm event and consequently their resultant time to peak of flood hydrograph which is extremely important in flood forecasting systems. Due to coarse pixel size of TRMM data, watershed scale is important issue.

Description: Estimating geostatistical parameters and spatially-variable hydraulic conductivity within a catchment system using an ensemble smoother Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9587-9635, 2011 Author(s): R. T. Bailey and D. Baù Groundwater flow models are important tools in assessing baseline conditions and investigating management alternatives in groundwater systems. The usefulness of these models, however, is often hindered by insufficient knowledge regarding the magnitude and spatial distribution of the spatially-distributed parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity ( K ), that govern the response of these models. Proposed parameter estimation methods frequently are demonstrated using simplified aquifer representations, when in reality the groundwater regime in a given watershed is influenced by strongly-coupled surface-subsurface processes. Furthermore, parameter estimation methodologies that rely on a geostatistical structure of K often assume the parameter values of the geostatistical model as known or estimate these values from limited data. In this study, we investigate the use of a data assimilation algorithm, the Ensemble Smoother, to provide enhanced estimates of K within a catchment system using the fully-coupled, surface-subsurface flow model CATHY. Both water table elevation and streamflow data are assimilated to condition the spatial distribution of K . An iterative procedure using the ES update routine, in which geostatistical parameter values defining the true spatial structure of K are identified, is also presented. In this procedure, parameter values are inferred from the updated ensemble of K fields and used in the subsequent iteration to generate the K ensemble, with the process proceeding until parameter values are converged upon. The parameter estimation scheme is demonstrated via a synthetic three-dimensional tilted v-shaped catchment system incorporating stream flow and variably-saturated subsurface flow, with spatio-temporal variability in forcing terms. Results indicate that the method is successful in providing improved estimates of the K field, and that the iterative scheme can be used to identify the geostatistical parameter values of the aquifer system. In general, water table data have a much greater ability than streamflow data to condition K . Future research includes applying the methodology to an actual regional study site.

Description: Combined assessment and regulation on ecological land use and water demand of the river system: a case study in Luanhe River, North China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9229-9273, 2011 Author(s): D. H. Yan, G. Wang, H. Wang, and T. L. Qin With economic and social development, ecological water and land use of the river system were seriously misappropriated, which resulted in overall degradation of the river systems. In this study, theoretical and technical frameworks of regionalisation on the eco-environmental function of the river systems were preliminarily formulated. According to the river eco-environmental functions, Luanhe River was regionalised into four types of first-class functional areas, i.e., ecological preservation areas, habitat restoration areas, ecological buffer areas and development and utilisation areas. Combined with the main functions of all functional areas, ecological land use of the river system in Luanhe River was assessed and planned. The total area of basic ecological land use was 876.98 km 2 ; that of restrictive ecological land use was 1745.52 km 2 ; that of ecological land use of the river system returned from farmland was 284.25 km 2 ; and that returned from construction land was 17.35 km 2 . Combined with prototype observation experiments, the average minimum ecological flow of mainstreams in upper and middle reaches of the Luanhe River was 4.896 m 3 s −1 with the habitat method. The evaporation and seepage consumption of the river system in Luanhe River and vegetation consumption in riparian zones were about 133 million m 3 and 145 million m 3 per year, respectively. Downwards from the Panjiakou-Daheiting Reservoir system, the mainstream of the Luanhe River was the crucial reach for regulation on instream ecological water use. It was required to speed up ecological land use planning of the river system and strengthen the regulation of ecological water use in important lower reaches of the Luanhe River under the condition of competitive water demand.

Description: Technical Note: The Normal Quantile Transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9275-9297, 2011 Author(s): K. Bogner, F. Pappenberger, and H. L. Cloke The Normal Quantile Transform (NQT) has been used in many hydrological and meteorological applications in order to make the Cumulated Density Function (CDF) of the observed, simulated and forecast river discharge, water level or precipitation data Gaussian. It is also the heart of the meta-Gaussian model for assessing the total predictive uncertainty of the Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (HUP) developed by Krzysztofowicz. In the field of geo-statistics this transformation is better known as Normal-Score Transform. In this paper some possible problems caused by small sample sizes for the applicability in flood forecasting systems will be discussed and illustrated by examples. For the practical implementation commands and examples from the freely available and widely used statistical computing language R (R Development Core Team, 2011) will be given (represented in Courier font) and possible solutions are suggested by combining extreme value analysis and non-parametric regression methods.

Description: Transient drawdown solution for a constant pumping test in finite two-zone confined aquifers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9299-9321, 2011 Author(s): C.-T. Wang, H.-D. Yeh, and C.-S. Tsai The drawdown solution has been widely used to analyze pumping test data for the determination of aquifer parameters when coupled with an optimization scheme. The solution can also be used to predict the drawdown due to pumping and design the dewatering system. The drawdown solution for flow toward a finite-radius well with a skin zone in a confined aquifer of infinite extent in radial direction had been developed before. To our best knowledge, the drawdown solution in confined aquifers of finite extent so far has never before been presented in the groundwater literature. This article presents a mathematical model for describing the drawdown distribution due to a constant-flux pumping from a finite-radius well with a skin zone in confined aquifers of finite extent. The analytical solution of the model is developed by applying the methods of Laplace transforms and Bromwich contour integral. This solution can be used to investigate the effects of finite boundary and conductivity ratio on the drawdown distribution. In addition, the inverse relationship between Laplace- and time-domain variables is used to develop the large time solution which can reduce to the Thiem solution if there is no skin zone.

Description: Characterization of deep aquifer dynamics using principle component analysis of sequential multilevel data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9481-9503, 2011 Author(s): D. Kurtzman, L. Netzer, N. Weisbrod, A. Nasser, E. R. Graber, and D. Ronen Two sequential multilevel profiles were obtained in an observation well opened to a 130 m thick, unconfined, contaminated aquifer, in Tel Aviv, Israel. While the general profile characteristics of major ions, trace elements, and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) were maintained in the two sampling campaigns conducted 295 days apart, the vertical locations of high concentration gradients were shifted between the two profiles. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) of the chemical variables resulted in a first Principal Component (PC) which was responsible for ∼60% of the variability, and was highly correlated with depth. PCA revealed three distinct depth-dependent water bodies in both multilevel profiles, which were found to be shifted vertically between the sampling events. This shift cut across a clayey bed which separated between the top and intermediate water bodies in the first profile, and was located entirely within the intermediate water body in the second profile. Continuous Electrical Conductivity (EC) monitoring in a packed off section of the observation well revealed an event in which a distinct water body flowed through the monitored section ( v ∼ 150 m yr −1 ). Compilation of the aforementioned data and analysis lead to a conclusion that the observed changes in the profiles resulted from dominantly lateral flow of water bodies in the aquifer rather than vertical flow. The significance of this study is twofold: (a) it demonstrates the utility of sequential multilevel observations from deep wells and the efficacy of PCA for evaluating this data. (b) The fact that distinct water bodies of 10–100 m vertical and horizontal dimensions flow under contaminated sites has implications for monitoring and remediation.

Description: The past and future changes of streamflow in Poyang Lake Basin, Southeastern China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9395-9434, 2011 Author(s): S. L. Sun, H. S. Chen, W. M. Ju, J. Song, J. J. Li, Y. J. Ren, and J. Sun Water resources have a close relationship with climate. The changes of streamflow affect the exploitation and utilization of water resources directly, and the social security and the stability of ecological system. Meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at 4 hydrological stations were collected to analyze the changes of streamflow and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds within Poyang Lake Basin during the period from 1961 to 2000. The contributions of different factors to the changes of streamflow in four typical watersheds were quantitatively quantified using water balance equation. Then, the possible future change of streamflow was assessed using precipitation and evaporation projected by different GCMs under three different emission scenarios, including medium greenhouse gases emission scenario (SRESA1B), high greenhouse gases emission scenario (SRESA2), and low greenhouse gases emission scenario (SRESB1). The change of streamflow exhibited different characteristics the four watersheds exist different increasing trends during 1961 to 2000. The increase in streamflow in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds was at the 5% significance level, with increasing rate of 4.80 m 3 s −1 yr −1 and 1.29 m 3 s −1 yr −1 , respectively. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to streamflow increment in Meigang Gaosha, and Xiashan watersheds, while the decrease in evaporation is the major explainer for streamflow increment in Saitang watershed. Radiation and wind have larger contributions than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to evaporation and streamflow. If soil water storage will not change in the future, with the increasing precipitation and the decreasing evaporation (not including the SRESB1 in Xiashan watershed), the streamflow shows an uptrend. Furthermore, the largest increase of Meigang watershed (+4.13%) and Xiashan watershed (+3.84%) appear under SRESA1B scenario while the increase of Saitang watershed (+6.87%) and Gaosha watershed (+5.15%) in SRESB1 scenario.

Description: A spatial neural fuzzy network for estimating pan evaporation at ungauged sites Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 9675-9705, 2011 Author(s): C.-H. Chung, Y.-M. Chiang, and F.-J. Chang Evaporation is an essential reference to the management of water resources. In this study, a hybrid model that integrates a spatial neural fuzzy network with the kringing method is developed to estimate pan evaporation at ungauged sites. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) can extract the nonlinear relationship of observations, while kriging is an excellent geostatistical interpolator. Three-year daily data collected from nineteen meteorological stations covering the whole of Taiwan are used to train and test the constructed model. The pan evaporation ( E pan ) at ungauged sites can be obtained through summing up the outputs of the spatially weighted ANFIS and the residuals adjusted by kriging. Results indicate that the proposed AK model (hybriding ANFIS and kriging) can effectively improve the accuracy of E pan estimation as compared with that of empirical formula. This hybrid model demonstrates its reliability in estimating the spatial distribution of E pan and consequently provides precise E pan estimation by taking geographical features into consideration.

Description: The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 2627-2665, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Ward, A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the growing body of literature that challenges the assumptions underlying the high-growth emissions scenarios (widely used in climate change impact studies), and instead points to a peak and decline in fossil fuel production occurring in the 21st century. We find that the IPCC's new RCP 4.5 scenario (low-medium emissions), as well as the B1 and A1T (low emissions) marker scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are broadly consistent with the majority of recent fossil fuel production forecasts, whereas the medium to high emissions scenarios generally depend upon unrealistic assumptions of future fossil fuel production. We use a simple case study of projected climate change in 2070 for the Scott Creek catchment in South Australia to demonstrate that even with the current suite of climate models, by limiting projections to the B1 scenario, both the median change and the spread of model results are reduced relative to equivalent projections under an unrealistic high emissions scenario (A1FI).

Description: Discharge estimation in a backwater affected meandering river Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 2667-2697, 2011 Author(s): H. Hidayat, B. Vermeulen, M. G. Sassi, P. J. J. F. Torfs, and A. J. F. Hoitink Variable effects of backwaters complicate the development of rating curves at hydrometric measurement stations. In areas influenced by backwater, single-parameter rating curve techniques are often inapplicable. To overcome this, several authors have advocated the use of an additional downstream level gauge to estimate the longitudinal surface level gradient, but this is cumbersome in a lowland meandering river with considerable transverse surface level gradients. Recent developments allow river flow to be continuously monitored through velocity measurements with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (H-ADCP), deployed horizontally at a river bank. This approach was adopted to obtain continuous discharge estimates at a cross-section in the River Mahakam at a station located about 300 km upstream of the river mouth in the Mahakam delta. The discharge station represents an area influenced by variable backwater effects from lakes, tributaries and floodplain ponds, and by tides. We applied both the standard index velocity method and a recently developed methodology to obtain a continuous time-series of discharge from the H-ADCP data. Measurements with a boat-mounted ADCP were used for calibration and validation of the model to translate H-ADCP velocity to discharge. As a comparison with conventional discharge estimation techniques, a stage-discharge relation using Jones formula was developed. The discharge rate at the station exceeded 3300 m 3 s −1 . Discharge series from a traditional stage-discharge relation did not capture the overall discharge dynamics, as inferred from H-ADCP data. For a specific river stage, the discharge range could be as high as 2000 m 3 s −1 , which is far beyond what could be explained from kinematic wave dynamics. Backwater effects from lakes were shown to be significant, whereas the river-tide interaction may impact discharge variation in the fortnightly frequency band. Fortnightly tides cannot easily be isolated from river discharge variation, which features similar periodicities.

Description: Snow cover dynamics and hydrological regime of the Hunza River basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 8, 2821-2860, 2011 Author(s): A. A. Tahir, P. Chevallier, Y. Arnaud, and B. Ahmad A major proportion of flow in the Indus River is contributed by its snow- and glacier-fed river catchments situated in the Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush ranges. It is therefore essential to understand the cryosphere dynamics in this area for water resource management. The MODIS MOD10A2 remote-sensing database of snow cover products from March 2000 to December 2009 was selected to analyse the snow cover changes in the Hunza River basin (the snow- and glacier-fed sub-catchment of the Indus River). A database of daily flows for the Hunza River at Dainyor Bridge over a period of 40 years and climate data (precipitation and temperature) for 10 years from three meteorological stations within the catchment was made available to investigate the hydrological regime in the area. Analysis of remotely sensed cryosphere (snow and ice cover) data showed a slight expansion of snow cover in the area in contrast to most of the regions in the world where glaciers are melting rapidly. This increase in snow cover may be the result of an increase in winter precipitation caused by westerly circulation. The impact of global warming is not effective because a large part of the basin area lies under high altitudes where the temperature remains negative throughout most of the year.