ALBERT

Beschreibung: We examined the relationships between large wood (LW) export and precipitation patterns and intensity by analyzing the data on the annual volume of LW removed from 42 reservoirs and the daily precipitation at or near the reservoir sites. We also calculated the effective precipitation by considering the antecedent precipitation. Both daily and effective precipitation data were used as explanatory variables to explain LW export. The model selection revealed that the precipitation pattern and intensity controlling LW export varied with latitude in the Japanese archipelago. In small watersheds with narrow channel widths and low discharges, mass movements, such as landslides and debris flows, are major factors in the production and transport of LW. In this case, the effective precipitation required to initiate mass movements regulated the LW export and did not vary with the latitude. In intermediate and large watersheds with wide channel widths and high stream discharges, heavy rainfall and subsequent floods regulated buoyant depth, influencing the initiation of LW movement. In southern and central Japan, intense rainfall accompanied by typhoons or localized torrential downpours causes geomorphic disturbances, which introduce abundant pieces of LW into the channels. However, these pieces continue to be removed by repeated rainfall events. Therefore, LW export is supply-limited and potentially produces less LW accumulation. Conversely, in northern Japan, where typhoons and torrential downpours are rare, LW export is transport-limited because LW pieces recruited by bank erosion, tree mortality, and windthrow accumulate and persist on valley floors. These pieces may be easily exported by infrequent flooding.

Beschreibung: We developed a method to measure in situ the isotopic composition of liquid water with minimal supervision and, most important, with a temporal resolution of less than a minute. For this purpose a microporous hydrophobic membrane contactor (Membrana) was combined with an isotope laser spectrometer (Picarro). The contactor, originally designed for degassing liquids, was used with N2 as a carrier gas in order to transform a small fraction of liquid water to water vapor. The generated water vapor was then analyzed continuously by the Picarro analyzer. To prove the membrane's applicability, we determined the specific isotope fractionation factor for the phase change through the contactor's membrane across an extended temperature range (8°C–21°C) and with different waters of known isotopic compositions. This fractionation factor is needed to subsequently derive the liquid water isotope ratio from the measured water vapor isotope ratios. The system was tested with a soil column experiment, where the isotope values derived with the new method corresponded well (R2 = 0.998 for δ18O and R2 = 0.997 for δ2H) with those of liquid water samples taken simultaneously and analyzed with a conventional method (cavity ring-down spectroscopy). The new method supersedes taking liquid samples and employs only relatively cheap and readily available components. This makes it a relatively inexpensive, fast, user-friendly, and easily reproducible method. It can be applied in both the field and laboratory wherever a water vapor isotope analyzer can be run and whenever real-time isotope data of liquid water are required at high temporal resolution.

Beschreibung: Transit time of discharge is a hydrological characteristic used in water resource management. Previous studies have demonstrated large spatial variation in the mean transit time (MTT) of stream base flow in meso-scale catchments. Various relationships between topography and MTT have been reported. Although it is generally assumed that base flow MTT is controlled by the depth of the hydrologically active layer that recharges a stream, this hypothesis has not been tested in field studies. This study confirmed that the depth of hydrologically active soil and bedrock controls spatial variation in MTT. The study used isotopic and geochemical tracer data gathered in the 4.27 km2 Fudoji catchment, central Japan. The results, together with previously documented relationships between topography and MTT, indicate that the depth of the hydrologically active layer is sometimes, but not always, related to topography. A comprehensive understanding of the factors that control base flow production in mountainous catchments will require further study of the water flow path depths that recharge streams.

Beschreibung: This paper examines the long-term historical changes in frequency and amplitude of hydroclimatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin using data from the second half of 20th century. The temporal variability of basin-wide rainfall extremes and river flow extremes from four gauging stations was investigated under the hypothesis of no trend and no persistence in time. On the basis of a quantile anomaly analysis method, decadal variations in extreme daily, monthly, and annual quantiles were studied, and the periods of statistical significance were identified. The analysis showed that high and low river flows and rainfall depths do not vary in time in a fully random way but show a particular variation pattern. Their extremes show significant decadal variations. The 1980s had statistically significant negative anomalies in extremes in comparison with the long-term reference period of 1964–2009, while the 1960s–1970s and the 1990s–2000s had positive anomalies, although less significant. There is neither consistent increasing nor decreasing trend in rainfall and flow extremes of recent years. Therefore, anticipated trends due to global warming could not be identified. Conversely, low-flow extremes show an increasing trend during the last decade, which could be related to the effect of water regulation works at the outlet of Lake Tana. Moreover, similar patterns and statistically significant correlations were found between climatic indices representing the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the Blue Nile rainfall and flow extremes. Changes that occur on the Pacific Ocean appear to be a main driver for the decadal oscillations in climate and related high and low Blue Nile water availability for Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.

Beschreibung: Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater–surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Beschreibung: An efficient approach is developed to analytically evaluate solute transport in a horizontal, divergent radial flow field with a multistep injection flow rate and an arbitrary input concentration history. By assuming a piecewise steady state flow and transforming the time domain to the cumulative injected flow domain, the concentration distribution is found to be completely determined by the total volume of injected flow and independent of specific flow rates. Thus, on the cumulative flow domain, the transport problem with a temporally varying velocity field can be transformed into a steady state flow problem. Linear convolution can then be applied on the cumulative injected flow domain to evaluate the solution for an arbitrarily time-dependent input concentration. Solutions on the regular time domain can be conveniently obtained by mapping the solution on the cumulative injected flow domain to the time domain. Furthermore, we theoretically examine the conditions for the assumption of piecewise steady state flow to be valid. On the basis of the critical time scale of the “pseudosteady state condition,” defined as when velocity changes accomplish 99% of their steady state differences, and the relative error in the mean travel time of plume front, we obtain conditions for neglecting the transitional period between two pumping steps. Such conditions include the following: (1) the duration of a pumping step, tp, must be longer than the critical time scale, tc, i.e., tp ≥ tc = 25r2S/T, where r is the radial distance, S is the storage coefficient, and T is the transmissivity, or similarly, a maximum problem domain needs to be defined for a given pumping strategy. (2) the maximum well pumping rate, qmax, should satisfy qmax ≤ πθT/25S, where θ is the effective porosity. When both conditions are satisfied, transitional periods may be neglected.

Beschreibung: Many observations and studies have shown that water resources amount in the Hai River Basin decreased significantly over the last half of the twentieth century. This study attempts to attribute the observed changes in the water resources amount in the basin over a 40 year period (1961–2000) to different factors, including natural climate variability, climate change induced by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gas emissions (referred to as anthropogenic forcing hereafter), and local human activity. First, the temporal variation of the annual water resources amount in the basin during the past 40 years is analyzed by employing the moving-average method, the linear regression method, and the Mann-Kendall method. Second, through setting different scenarios, the effects on the water resources amount due to different factors, including natural climate variability, anthropogenic forcing, and local human activity, are obtained using the parallel climate model, the distributed hydrological model water and energy transfer processes in large river basins, and the statistical downscaling model. Third, the fingerprint-based attribution method is used to obtain the signal strengths of observed changes in water resources amount during 1961–2000 and changes in the water resources amount under different scenarios. Finally, by comparing the signal strengths, the observed changes in water resources amount in the basin can be attributed to different factors. The results indicate that natural climate variability and local human activity may be two factors responsible for the observed changes in the water resources amount during the past 40 years in the basin, with local human activity being the main factor and accounting for about 60% of the changes.

Beschreibung: Flood events can induce temporal changes in streambed elevation and particle-size composition, which may influence the bed's hydraulic properties and stream-aquifer fluxes during and after an event. This study combines a set of previously developed modeling approaches to create a synthetic flood event during which bed sediment is entrained and deposited as a function of hydraulic conditions and particle size. One simulated river reach in a state of approximate dynamic equilibrium is chosen to investigate the impacts of size-selective sediment transport on stream-aquifer interaction. Along this reach, the preferential entrainment of fine sediment during the flood's rising limb leads to overall bed coarsening, and increases in vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kbv) and downward fluxes of floodwater into the streambed. Progressively finer sediment layers are deposited during the event's falling limb, causing the redevelopment of a colmation (clogging) layer on the bed surface and a decline in overall Kbv by the event's conclusion. This reduction in Kbv leads to prolonged retention of event water in the streambed (after the reach reverts from losing to gaining river conditions) when compared with what is expected if pre-event Kbv values are used to estimate river-aquifer exchanges. This process of sequential bed coarsening and fining during a flood event provides a mechanistic explanation for the event size-and-duration threshold, inferred in some systems, that must be exceeded for significant amounts of flood recharge to occur. The major consequences of these processes—enhanced infiltration and prolonged floodwater retention—have potentially major implications for groundwater-surface water interactions, water quality, contaminant transport, and riparian biogeochemistry.

Beschreibung: Nonstationary oscillation (NSO) processes are observed in a number of hydroclimatic data series. Stochastic simulation models are useful to study the impacts of the climatic variations induced by NSO processes into hydroclimatic regimes. Reproducing NSO processes in a stochastic time series model is, however, a difficult task because of the complexity of the nonstationary behaviors. In the current study, a novel stochastic simulation technique that reproduces the NSO processes embedded in hydroclimatic data series is presented. The proposed model reproduces NSO processes by utilizing empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and nonparametric simulation techniques (i.e., k-nearest-neighbor resampling and block bootstrapping). The model was first tested with synthetic data sets from trigonometric functions and the Rössler system. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was then examined as a real case study. This NAO index was then employed as an exogenous variable for the stochastic simulation of streamflows at the Romaine River in the province of Quebec, Canada. The results of the application to the synthetic data sets and the real-world case studies indicate that the proposed model preserves well the NSO processes along with the key statistical characteristics of the observations. It was concluded that the proposed model possesses a reasonable simulation capacity and a high potential as a stochastic model, especially for hydroclimatic data sets that embed NSO processes.

Beschreibung: Vegetation zonation and tidal hydrology are basic attributes of intertidal salt marshes, but specific links among vegetation zonation, plant water use, and spatiotemporally dynamic hydrology have eluded thorough characterization. We developed a quantitative model of an intensively studied salt marsh field site, integrating coupled 2-D surface water and 3-D groundwater flow and zonal plant water use. Comparison of model scenarios with and without heterogeneity in (1) evapotranspiration rates and rooting depths, according to mapped vegetation zonation, and (2) sediment hydraulic properties from inferred geological heterogeneity revealed the coupled importance of both sources of ecohydrological variability at the site. Complex spatial variations in root zone pressure heads, saturations, and vertical groundwater velocities emerged in the model but only when both sources of ecohydrological variability were represented together and with tidal dynamics. These regions of distinctive root zone hydraulic conditions, caused by the intersection of vegetation and sediment spatial patterns, were termed “ecohydrological zones” (EHZ). Five EHZ emerged from different combinations of sediment hydraulic properties and evapotranspiration rates, and two EHZ emerged from local topography. Simulated pressure heads and groundwater dynamics among the EHZ were validated with field data. The model and data showed that hydraulic differences between EHZ were masked shortly after a flooding tide but again became prominent during prolonged marsh exposure. We suggest that ecohydrological zones, which reflect the combined influences of topographic, sediment, and vegetation heterogeneity and do not emphasize one influence over the others, are the fundamental spatial habitat units comprising the salt marsh ecosystem.

Beschreibung: Soil hydraulic parameters were upscaled from a 30 m resolution to a 1 km resolution using a new aggregation scheme (described in the companion paper) where the scale parameter was based on the topography. When soil hydraulic parameter aggregation or upscaling schemes ignore the effect of topography, their application becomes limited at hillslope scales and beyond, where topography plays a dominant role in soil deposition and formation. Hence the new upscaling algorithm was tested at the hillslope scale (1 km) across two locations: (1) the Little Washita watershed in Oklahoma, and (2) the Walnut Creek watershed in Iowa. The watersheds were divided into pixels of 1 km resolution and the effective soil hydraulic parameters obtained for each pixel. Each pixel/domain was then simulated using the physically based HYDRUS-3-D modeling platform. In order to account for the surface (runoff/on) and subsurface fluxes between pixels, an algorithm to route infiltration-excess runoff onto downstream pixels at daily time steps and to update the soil moisture states of the downstream pixels was applied. Simulated soil moisture states were compared across scales, and the coarse scale values compared against the airborne soil moisture data products obtained during the hydrology experiment field campaign periods (SGP97 and SMEX02) for selected pixels with different topographic complexities, soil distributions, and land cover. Results from these comparisons show good correlations between simulated and observed soil moisture states across time, topographic variations, location, elevation, and land cover. Stream discharge comparisons made at two gauging stations in the Little Washita watershed also provide reasonably good results as to the suitability of the upscaling algorithm used. Based only on the topography of the domain, the new upscaling algorithm was able to provide coarse resolution values for soil hydraulic parameters which effectively captured the variations in soil moisture across the watershed domains.

Beschreibung: Hydropower accounts for about 20% of the worldwide electrical power production. In mountainous regions this ratio is significantly higher. In this study we present how future projected climatic forcing, as described in regional climate models (RCMs), will affect water resources and subsequently hydropower production in downstream hydropower plants in a glacierized alpine valley (Vispa valley, Switzerland, 778 km2). In order to estimate future runoff generation and hydropower production, we used error-corrected and downscaled climate scenarios from regional climate models (RCMs) as well as glacier retreat projections from a dynamic glacier model and coupled them to a physically based hydrological model. Furthermore, we implemented all relevant hydropower operational rules in the hydrological model to estimate future hydropower production based on the runoff projections. The uncertainty of each modeling component (climate projections, glacier retreat, and hydrological projection) and the resulting propagation of uncertainty to the projected future water availability for energy production were assessed using an analysis of variance. While the uncertainty of the projections is considerable, the consistent trends observed in all projections indicate significant changes to the current situation. The model results indicate that future melt- and rainfall-runoff will increase during spring but decline during summer. The study concludes by outlining the most relevant expected changes for hydropower operations.

Beschreibung: The effect of spatial concentration fluctuations on the reaction of two solutes, A + B ⇀ C, is considered. In the absence of fluctuations, the concentration of solutes decays as Adet = Bdet ∼ t−1. Contrary to this, experimental and numerical studies suggest that concentrations decay significantly slower. Existing theory suggests a t−d/4 scaling in the asymptotic regime (d is the dimensionality of the problem). Here we study the effect of fluctuations using the classical diffusion-reaction equation with random initial conditions. Initial concentrations of the reactants are treated as correlated random fields. We use the method of moment equations to solve the resulting stochastic diffusion-reaction equation and obtain a solution for the average concentrations that deviates from ∼t−1 to ∼t−d/4 behavior at characteristic transition time t*. We also derive analytical expressions for t* as a function of Damköhler number and the coefficient of variation of the initial concentration.

Beschreibung: Based on existing techniques in nonlinear physics that work in the Fourier domain, we develop a multivariate, wavelet-based method for the generation of synthetic discharge time series. This approach not only retains the cross-correlative structure of the original data (which makes it preferable to principal component methods that merely preserve the correlations) but also replicates the nonlinear properties of the original data. We argue that the temporal asymmetry of the typical hydrograph is the most important form of nonlinearity to preserve in the synthetic data. Using the derivative skewness as a measure of asymmetry and an example data set of 35 years of daily discharge data from 107 gauging stations in the United States, we compare two approaches that preserve the asymmetry of the original records. We generate synthetic data and then study the properties of fitting a generalized extreme value distribution to the annual maxima for a total flux time series. The synthetic series provides error bands for the fitted distribution that give a different way of assessing credible return periods. It is found that the best approach for studying extremes is to match the asymmetry of each series individually, rather than to formulate a global threshold criterion.

Beschreibung: This article focuses on household water use in Spain by analyzing the influence of a detailed set of factors. We find that, although the presence of both water-saving equipment and water-conservation habits leads to water savings, the factors that influence each are not the same. In particular, our results show that those individuals most committed to the adoption of water-saving equipment and, at the same time, less committed to water-conservation habits tend to have higher incomes.

Beschreibung: In semiarid regions, the rooting strategies employed by vegetation can be critical to its survival. Arid regions are characterized by high variability in the arrival of rainfall, and species found in these areas have adapted mechanisms to ensure the capture of this scarce resource. Vegetation roots have strong control over this partitioning, and assuming a static root profile, predetermine the manner in which this partitioning is undertaken.A coupled, dynamic vegetation and hydrologic model, tRIBS + VEGGIE, was used to explore the role of vertical root distribution on hydrologic fluxes. Point-scale simulations were carried out using two spatially and temporally invariant rooting schemes: uniform: a one-parameter model and logistic: a two-parameter model. The simulations were forced with a stochastic climate generator calibrated to weather stations and rain gauges in the semiarid Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona. A series of simulations were undertaken exploring the parameter space of both rooting schemes and the optimal root distribution for the simulation, which was defined as the root distribution with the maximum mean transpiration over a 100-yr period, and this was identified. This optimal root profile was determined for five generic soil textures and two plant-functional types (PFTs) to illustrate the role of soil texture on the partitioning of moisture at the land surface. The simulation results illustrate the strong control soil texture has on the partitioning of rainfall and consequently the depth of the optimal rooting profile. High-conductivity soils resulted in the deepest optimal rooting profile with land surface moisture fluxes dominated by transpiration. As we move toward the lower conductivity end of the soil spectrum, a shallowing of the optimal rooting profile is observed and evaporation gradually becomes the dominate flux from the land surface. This study offers a methodology through which local plant, soil, and climate can be accounted for in the parameterization of rooting profiles in semiarid regions.

Beschreibung: There has been a recent debate in the hydrological community about the relative merits of the informal generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to uncertainty assessment in hydrological modeling versus formal probabilistic approaches. Some recent literature has suggested that the methods can give similar results in practice when properly applied. In this note, we show that the connection between formal Bayes and GLUE is not merely operational but goes deeper, with GLUE corresponding to a certain approximate Bayesian procedure even when the “generalized likelihood” is not a true likelihood. The connection we describe relates to recent approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods originating in genetics. ABC algorithms involve the use of a kernel function, and the generalized likelihood in GLUE can be thought of as relating to this kernel function rather than to the model likelihood. Two interpretations of GLUE emerge, one as a computational approximation to a Bayes procedure for a certain “error-free” model and the second as an exact Bayes procedure for a perturbation of that model in which the truncation of the generalized likelihood in GLUE plays a role. The intent of this study is to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas regarding GLUE and ABC in hydrologic applications. The connection we outline suggests the possibility of combining a formal likelihood with a kernel based on a generalized likelihood within the ABC framework and also allows advanced ABC computational methods to be used in GLUE applications. The model-based interpretation of GLUE may also be helpful in partially illuminating the implicit assumptions in different choices of generalized likelihood.

Beschreibung: Satellite-passive microwave remote sensing has been extensively used to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) in northern regions. Although passive microwave sensors operate independent of solar illumination and the lower frequencies are independent of atmospheric conditions, the coarse spatial resolution introduces uncertainties to SWE retrievals due to the surface heterogeneity within individual pixels. In this article, we investigate the coupling of a thermodynamic multilayered snow model with a passive microwave emission model. Results show that the snow model itself provides poor SWE simulations when compared to field measurements from two major field campaigns. Coupling the snow and microwave emission models with successive iterations to correct the influence of snow grain size and density significantly improves SWE simulations. This method was further validated using an additional independent data set, which also showed significant improvement using the two-step iteration method compared to standalone simulations with the snow model.

Beschreibung: Existing analytical solutions to determine aquifer response to a change in stream stage are inappropriate where an unsaturated zone exists beneath the stream, as in the case of disconnected stream-aquifer systems. A better understanding of the relationship between aquifer response and transient stream stage in disconnected systems is therefore required, as this would also aid in the field determination of the status of connection between the stream and aquifer. We use a numerical model to examine transient stream stage and the corresponding water table response. Beneath disconnected streams, the magnitude of head change in the water table level is a balance between the cumulative infiltration during a flow event and the rate at which the water can disperse laterally. Increases in wave duration, stream width, and streambed permeability result in greater infiltrated water volume and therefore a higher peak response at the water table. Conversely, higher aquifer transmissivity and aquifer hydraulic conductivity allow the water to move laterally away from the stream faster, resulting in a smaller head change below the stream. Lower unsaturated storage results in a greater and faster aquifer response because the unsaturated zone can fill more quickly. Under some combinations of parameters, the magnitude of the disconnected head response is more than seven times greater than the change in stream stage driving streambed infiltration; an effect which can never occur beneath a connected stream. The results of this sensitivity analysis are compared to field data from a river in eastern Australia to determine periods of disconnection. Where the change in aquifer head is greater than the change in stream stage, disconnection between the stream and aquifer can be determined.

Beschreibung: The ability to understand and predict the flux and fate of sediment delivered to the sea by rivers remains an outstanding scientific challenge. Approaches to this challenge are necessarily synthetic, spanning wide ranges in spatial and temporal scales. Here a conventional sediment transport theory used by engineers and sedimentologists at reach and channel scales is applied at the basin scale. Specifically, a straightforward expression proposed by Bagnold and modified accordingly predicts the observed importance of combined wetness and steepness of a source basin as a control of sediment supply to the sea. The reasonable, key assumption underlying the application of sediment transport theory in this context is that the river-mouth sites for which suspended-sediment loads are reported are alluviated, and thus characterized by transport-limited flux of sediment. This analysis also indicates the potential significance of additional, as yet poorly documented factors constraining sediment supply to the sea. These factors, some of which appear to covary systematically with climate, include river-profile concavity, river-mouth channel width and friction, and the characteristic size of sediment in transport.

Beschreibung: Key documents such as the European Water Framework Directive and the U.S. Clean Water Act state that public and stakeholder participation in water resource management is required. Participation aims to enhance resource management and involve individuals and groups in a democratic way. Evaluation of participatory programs and projects is necessary to assess whether these objectives are being achieved and to identify how participatory programs and projects can be improved. The different methods of evaluation can be classified into three groups: (i) process evaluation assesses the quality of participation process, for example, whether it is legitimate and promotes equal power between participants, (ii) intermediary outcome evaluation assesses the achievement of mainly nontangible outcomes, such as trust and communication, as well as short- to medium-term tangible outcomes, such as agreements and institutional change, and (iii) resource management outcome evaluation assesses the achievement of changes in resource management, such as water quality improvements. Process evaluation forms a major component of the literature but can rarely indicate whether a participation program improves water resource management. Resource management outcome evaluation is challenging because resource changes often emerge beyond the typical period covered by the evaluation and because changes cannot always be clearly related to participation activities. Intermediary outcome evaluation has been given less attention than process evaluation but can identify some real achievements and side benefits that emerge through participation. This review suggests that intermediary outcome evaluation should play a more important role in evaluating participation in water resource management.

Beschreibung: The key question that is asked in this study is “how are the three independent bias components of satellite rainfall estimation, comprising hit bias, missed, and false precipitation, physically related to the estimation uncertainty of soil moisture and runoff for a physically based hydrologic model?” The study also investigated the performance of different satellite rainfall products as a function of land use and land cover (LULC) type. Using the entire Mississippi river basin as the study region and the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-3L as the distributed hydrologic model, the study of the satellite products (CMORPH, 3B42RT, and PERSIANN-CCS) yielded two key findings. First, during the winter season, more than 40% of the rainfall total bias is dominated by missed precipitation in forest and woodland regions (southeast of Mississippi). During the summer season, 51% of the total bias is governed by the hit bias, and about 42% by the false precipitation in grassland-savanna region (western part of Mississippi basin). Second, a strong dependence is observed between hit bias and runoff error, and missed precipitation and soil moisture error. High correlation with runoff error is observed with hit bias (∼0.85), indicating the need for improving the satellite rainfall product's ability to detect rainfall more consistently for flood prediction. For soil moisture error, it is the total bias that correlated significantly (∼0.78), indicating that a satellite product needed to be minimized of total bias for long-term monitoring of watershed conditions for drought through continuous simulation.

Beschreibung: Bayesian inference is used to study the effect of precipitation and model structural uncertainty on estimates of model parameters and confidence limits of predictive variables in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model in the snow-fed Rudbäck catchment (142 ha) in southern Finland. The IHACRES model is coupled with a simple degree day model to account for snow accumulation and melt. The posterior probability distribution of the model parameters is sampled by using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) algorithm and the generalized likelihood function. Precipitation uncertainty is taken into account by introducing additional latent variables that were used as multipliers for individual storm events. Results suggest that occasional snow water equivalent (SWE) observations together with daily streamflow observations do not contain enough information to simultaneously identify model parameters, precipitation uncertainty and model structural uncertainty in the Rudbäck catchment. The addition of an autoregressive component to account for model structure error and latent variables having uniform priors to account for input uncertainty lead to dubious posterior distributions of model parameters. Thus our hypothesis that informative priors for latent variables could be replaced by additional SWE data could not be confirmed. The model was found to work adequately in 1-day-ahead simulation mode, but the results were poor in the simulation batch mode. This was caused by the interaction of parameters that were used to describe different sources of uncertainty. The findings may have lessons for other cases where parameterizations are similarly high in relation to available prior information.

Beschreibung: Operational land surface models (LSMs) compute hydrologic states such as soil moisture that are needed for a range of important applications (e.g., drought, flood, and weather prediction). The uncertainty in LSM parameters is sufficiently great that several researchers have proposed conducting parameter estimation using globally available remote sensing data to identify best fit local parameter sets. However, even with in situ data at fine modeling scales, there can be significant remaining uncertainty in LSM parameters and outputs. Here, using a new uncertainty estimation subsystem of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) (described herein), a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is applied to conduct Bayesian analysis for the accounting of parameter uncertainties. The Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) MCMC algorithm was applied, for which a new parallel implementation was developed. A case study is examined that builds on previous work in which the Noah LSM was calibrated to passive (L-band) microwave remote sensing estimates of soil moisture for the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. In keeping with prior related studies, the parameters subjected to the analysis were restricted to the soil hydraulic properties (SHPs). The main goal is to estimate SHPs and soil moisture simulation uncertainty before and after consideration of the remote sensing data. The prior SHP uncertainty is based on the original source of the standard SHP lookup tables for the Noah LSM. Conclusions are drawn regarding the value and viability of Bayesian analysis over alternative approaches (e.g., parameter estimation, lookup tables) and further research needs are identified.

Beschreibung: It has long been known that surface gravity waves induce significant seepage through the porous layer found at the lake bottom. Away from coastal regions, however, the pressure signature of surface waves at the lake bottom is weak. We consider fully nonlinear internal gravity waves, whose long wavelength and slow motion implies a sustained and strong pressure perturbation even in the deep regions of the lake. We argue that internal waves can induce significant seepage through the sediment layer, in regions where surface gravity waves have negligible impact. The pressure profile at the fluid–porous layer interface is computed from the “exact” Dubreil-Jacotin-Long theory, giving a reliable profile even for large waves. This profile is used in conjunction with Darcy's law to compute the seepage within the porous region. We find that the geometric distribution of seepage is strongly controlled by both the ratio of porous media thickness to the horizontal length of the pressure perturbation, and the bottom topography, when it is present. Based on work on the interaction of internal solitary waves with the bottom boundary layer, we develop a model to account for the changes in permeability due to wave-induced instabilities in the bottom boundary layer and enhanced benthic turbulence. This turbulence acts to unplug the pores near the surface by lifting the detritus that clogs them. The resulting changes in permeability significantly enhance exchange between the free fluid and the porous medium on the downstream side of the wave.

Beschreibung: Investigations of solute transport in fractured rock aquifers often rely on tracer test data acquired at a limited number of observation points. Such data do not, by themselves, allow detailed assessments of the spreading of the injected tracer plume. To better understand the transport behavior in a granitic aquifer, we combine tracer test data with single-hole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection monitoring data. Five successful tracer tests were performed under various experimental conditions between two boreholes 6 m apart. For each experiment, saline tracer was injected into a previously identified packed-off transmissive fracture while repeatedly acquiring single-hole GPR reflection profiles together with electrical conductivity logs in the pumping borehole. By analyzing depth-migrated GPR difference images together with tracer breakthrough curves and associated simplified flow and transport modeling, we estimate (1) the number, the connectivity, and the geometry of fractures that contribute to tracer transport, (2) the velocity and the mass of tracer that was carried along each flow path, and (3) the effective transport parameters of the identified flow paths. We find a qualitative agreement when comparing the time evolution of GPR reflectivity strengths at strategic locations in the formation with those arising from simulated transport. The discrepancies are on the same order as those between observed and simulated breakthrough curves at the outflow locations. The rather subtle and repeatable GPR signals provide useful and complementary information to tracer test data acquired at the outflow locations and may help us to characterize transport phenomena in fractured rock aquifers.

Beschreibung: Large areas of Amazonian evergreen forest experience seasonal droughts extending for three or more months, yet show maximum rates of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration during dry intervals. This apparent resilience is belied by disproportionate mortality of the large trees in manipulations that reduce wet season rainfall, occurring after 2–3 years of treatment. The goal of this study is to characterize the mechanisms that produce these contrasting ecosystem responses. A mechanistic model is developed based on the ecohydrological framework of TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network)-based Real Time Integrated Basin Simulator + Vegetation Generator for Interactive Evolution (tRIBS+VEGGIE). The model is used to test the roles of deep roots and soil capillary flux to provide water to the forest during the dry season. Also examined is the importance of “root niche separation,” in which roots of overstory trees extend to depth, where during the dry season they use water stored from wet season precipitation, while roots of understory trees are concentrated in shallow layers that access dry season precipitation directly. Observational data from the Tapajós National Forest, Brazil, were used as meteorological forcing and provided comprehensive observational constraints on the model. Results strongly suggest that deep roots with root niche separation adaptations explain both the observed resilience during seasonal drought and the vulnerability of canopy-dominant trees to extended deficits of wet season rainfall. These mechanisms appear to provide an adaptive strategy that enhances productivity of the largest trees in the face of their disproportionate heat loads and water demand in the dry season. A sensitivity analysis exploring how wet season rainfall affects the stability of the rainforest system is presented.

Beschreibung: We present direct numerical simulation results for both isothermal and density-stratified turbulent flow in an open channel into and around a 120° bend with a bulk Reynolds number of 7500 and Prandtl number of 1.5. The bend is sharp with a radius-to-channel breadth ratio of 1.5. The bulk Richardson number for the stratified flow is 2.4 based on overall channel depth. The gradient Richardson number (Rig) varies between 10 and 20 at the entrance to θ ≈ 60°, where θ is the angular location. Above θ ≈ 60 − 120, Rig ≈ 1. In isothermal flow, the well-known helical flow structure is observed. In stratified conditions, the vertical variation in relative strength of the outward-directed baroclinic pressure gradient and the centrifugal acceleration leads to a more complex circulation structure. In the near bed region and immediately above the interface, the centrifugal acceleration is greater, driving flow radially inward, while just below the density interface the baroclinic pressure gradient is greater, leading to outward-directed flow. This produces a four layer circulation structure with potentially significant implications for sediment erosion and transport. Additionally, this produces a complex dynamic at the density interface where the shear orientation varies through approximately 200° over the mixing layer depth.

Beschreibung: In the majority of large river systems, flow is regulated and/or otherwise affected by operational and management activities, such as ship locking. The effect of lock operation on sediment-water oxygen fluxes was studied within a 12.9 km long impoundment at the Saar River (Germany) using eddy-correlation flux measurements. The continuous observations cover a time period of nearly 5 days and 39 individual locking events. Ship locking is associated with the generation of surges propagating back and forth through the impoundment which causes strong variations of near-bed current velocity and turbulence. These wave-induced flow variations cause variations in sediment-water oxygen fluxes. While the mean flux during time periods without lock operation was 0.5 ± 0.1 g m−2 d−1, it increased by about a factor of 2 to 1.0 ± 0.5 g m−2 d−1 within time periods with ship locking. Following the daily schedule of lock operations, fluxes are predominantly enhanced during daytime and follow a pronounced diurnal rhythm. The driving force for the increased flux is the enhancement of diffusive transport across the sediment-water interface by bottom-boundary layer turbulence and perhaps resuspension. Additional means by which the oxygen budget of the impoundment is affected by lock-induced flow variations are discussed.

Beschreibung: Model errors are inevitable in any prediction exercise. One approach that is currently gaining attention in reducing model errors is by combining multiple models to develop improved predictions. The rationale behind this approach primarily lies on the premise that optimal weights could be derived for each model so that the developed multimodel predictions will result in improved predictions. A new dynamic approach (MM-1) to combine multiple hydrological models by evaluating their performance/skill contingent on the predictor state is proposed. We combine two hydrological models, “abcd” model and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, to develop multimodel streamflow predictions. To quantify precisely under what conditions the multimodel combination results in improved predictions, we compare multimodel scheme MM-1 with optimal model combination scheme (MM-O) by employing them in predicting the streamflow generated from a known hydrologic model (abcd model or VIC model) with heteroscedastic error variance as well as from a hydrologic model that exhibits different structure than that of the candidate models (i.e., “abcd” model or VIC model). Results from the study show that streamflow estimated from single models performed better than multimodels under almost no measurement error. However, under increased measurement errors and model structural misspecification, both multimodel schemes (MM-1 and MM-O) consistently performed better than the single model prediction. Overall, MM-1 performs better than MM-O in predicting the monthly flow values as well as in predicting extreme monthly flows. Comparison of the weights obtained from each candidate model reveals that as measurement errors increase, MM-1 assigns weights equally for all the models, whereas MM-O assigns higher weights for always the best-performing candidate model under the calibration period. Applying the multimodel algorithms for predicting streamflows over four different sites revealed that MM-1 performs better than all single models and optimal model combination scheme, MM-O, in predicting the monthly flows as well as the flows during wetter months.

Beschreibung: The potential for riverine drinking source water to become contaminated with pathogens is related to the production and transport of fecal waste from within the local catchment area. Identifying specific relationships between land-use types and fecal contamination in riverine water provides an indication of the risk associated with land-use change and helps to target mitigation measures toward land-use types of concern. Fecal coliform (FC) data from 42 riverine sites across British Columbia (BC), Canada, were examined in relation to land-use composition (including 16 land-use types) in the local catchment area. FC concentration significantly increased in relation to anthropogenic land-use impacts but was negatively associated with undisturbed and high-elevation land types. Regression tree analysis identified that highest FC concentrations occurred in catchments characterized by more than 12.5% agricultural land and more than 1.6% urban land. Furthermore, the risk of violation of the BC partial treatment raw drinking water quality guideline for FC concentration (100 CFU 100 mL−1) increased in relation to agricultural impacts. Additional factors, such as sewage treatment discharge, low dilution in smaller streams, and higher temperatures, were associated with higher FC concentration among sites with similar levels of agricultural development. These results identify land-use types that present the greatest threat to riverine contamination, namely agricultural and urban land, and indicate the proportion of such land use associated with high contamination. Land use should be managed and source water protection should be targeted in light of these results so as to minimize the risk of surface water exposure to fecal contaminants.

Beschreibung: In the absence of model deficiencies, simulation results at the correct parameter values lead to an unbiased description of observed data with remaining deviations due to observation errors only. However, this ideal cannot be reached in the practice of environmental modeling, because the required simplified representation of the complex reality by the model and errors in model input lead to errors that are reflected in biased model output. This leads to two related problems: First, ignoring bias of output in the statistical model description leads to bias in parameter estimates, model predictions and, in particular, in the quantification of their uncertainty. Second, as there is no objective choice of how much bias to accept in which output variable, it is not possible to design an “objective” model calibration procedure. The first of these problems has been addressed by introducing a statistical (Bayesian) description of bias, the second by suggesting the use of multiobjective calibration techniques that cannot easily be used for uncertainty analysis. We merge the ideas of these two approaches by using the prior of the statistical bias description to quantify the importance of multiple calibration objectives. This leads to probabilistic inference and prediction while still taking multiple calibration objectives into account. The ideas and technical details of the suggested approach are outlined and a didactical example as well as an application to environmental data are provided to demonstrate its practical feasibility and computational efficiency.

Beschreibung: The hydraulics of step-pool streams are characterized by rapidly varied flow at the step crest, a hydraulic jump, and gradually varied flow in the pool unit of the step-pool sequence. The flow characteristics at the step crests act as the hydraulic control for the water surface profile within the upstream pool unit. Using both field and flume investigations, we demonstrate the use of weir flow concepts for assessing and categorizing the hydraulic characteristics of natural step-crests in step-pool streams. We categorize the results of our investigations in terms of the crest-clast, planform, longitudinal, and instream wood geometries of the step crests. The broad-crested weir equation can be expressed as Q = C* g0.5Wh3/2, where Q is the flowrate, C* is a dimensionless discharge coefficient, W is the crest width, g is the acceleration of gravity, and h is the upstream flow depth above the step crest. Although the flow over a natural step is generally more complex than for an engineered weir, the results of our investigations indicate that the C*-value for simulated and natural steps increases linearly as a function of the upstream head (h), with C* values ranging from 0.15 to 0.97. As a result, the application of weir flow concepts to natural steps provides means for (1) indirectly estimating flow rates; (2) characterizing the hydraulics for individual steps; (3) defining external and/or internal boundary conditions at step crests for hydraulic model simulations of natural or restored step-pool streams; and (4) estimating the upstream pressure force acting on step-crest clasts.

Beschreibung: Surface ground-penetrating radar (GPR) techniques have been used by a number of previous researchers to characterize soil moisture content in the vadose zone. However, limited temporal sampling and low resolution near the surface in these studies greatly impedes the quantitative analysis of vertical soil moisture distribution and its associated dynamics within the shallow subsurface. To further examine the capacity of surface GPR, we have undertaken an extensive 26 month field study using concurrent high-frequency (i.e., 900 MHz) reflection profiling and common-midpoint (CMP) soundings to quantitatively monitor soil moisture distribution and dynamics within the shallow vadose zone. This unprecedented data set allowed us to assess the concurrent use of these techniques over two contrasting annual cycles of soil conditions. Reflection profiles provided high-resolution traveltime data between four stratigraphic reflection events while cumulative results of the CMP sounding data set produced precise depth estimates for those reflecting interfaces, which were used to convert interval-traveltime data into soil moisture. The downward propagation of major infiltration episodes associated with seasonal and transient events are well resolved by the GPR data. The use of CMP soundings permitted the determination of direct ground wave velocities, which provided high-resolution information along the air-soil interface. This improved resolution enabled better characterization of short-duration wetting/drying and freezing/thawing processes, and permitted better evaluation of the nature of the coupling between shallow and deep moisture conditions. The nature of transient infiltration pulses, evapotranspiration episodes, and deep drainage patterns observed in the GPR data series were further examined by comparing them with a vertical soil moisture flow simulation based on the variably saturated model, HYDRUS-1D. Using laboratory-derived soil hydraulic property information from soil samples and a number of simplifying assumptions about the upper and lower-boundary condition, we were able to achieve very good agreement between measured and simulated soil moisture profiles without model calibration; this is a strong indication of the overall quality of the GPR-derived soil moisture estimates. The only notable difference between simulated values and GPR water content estimates occurred during extended dry soil conditions near the surface.

Beschreibung: Typhoon rainfall characteristics over a mesoscale mountainous watershed (drainage area of 620 km2) located in eastern Taiwan were analyzed to fill the gaps in our knowledge concerning the linkage between typhoon track, rainfall patterns, and flood peak time. This study used spatially high-resolution radar-derived rainfall estimates from 38 storm events (∼2800 h) to investigate this linkage. The effect of spatial rainfall patterns on the timing of flood peak for the selected events was examined with the aid of a diffusive wave model. The results show that the typhoon rainfall was spatially aggregated and that the relative variations in the rainfall became smaller at higher rainfall rates. The maximum hourly rainfall was approximately twice the areal mean rainfall. Three major rainfall types were identified statistically, and different typhoon tracks appeared to have preferable rainfall types. This finding is presumably due to the interaction of the typhoon circulation and precipitation with the mountainous landscape. Flood lead times were derived for the different rainfall types, and it was found that differences in their lead times could be as large as ∼3 h over the studied mesoscale watershed. It is recommended that this empirical approach be incorporated into flood forecasting and warning systems.

Beschreibung: Quantification of precipitation extremes is important for flood planning purposes, and a common measure of extreme events is the T year return level. Extreme precipitation depths in Belgium are analyzed for accumulation durations ranging from 10 min to 30 days. Spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) models are presented by considering multisite data and relating GEV parameters to geographical/climatological covariates through a common regression relationship. Methods of combining data from several sites are in common use, and in such cases, there is likely to be nonnegligible intersite dependence. However, parameter estimation in GEV models is generally done with the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) that assumes independence. Estimates of uncertainty are adjusted for spatial dependence using methodologies proposed earlier. Consistency of GEV distributions for various durations is obtained by fitting a smooth function to the preliminary estimations of the shape parameter. Model quality has been assessed by various statistical tests and indicates the relevance of our approach. In addition, a methodology is applied to account for the fact that measurements have been made in fixed intervals (usually 09:00 UTC–09:00 UTC). The distribution of the annual sliding 24 h maxima was specified through extremal indices of a more than 110 year time series of 24 h aggregated 10 min rainfall and daily rainfall. Finally, the selected models are used for producing maps of precipitation return levels.

Beschreibung: In reservoirs used for geologic CO2 sequestration, brine films remaining on mineral surfaces can influence flow, diffusion, and reactions. We have investigated how the capillary (disjoining) potential influences the thickness of a KCsI2 brine film on both smooth and rough SiO2 surfaces [root mean square roughness (Rrms), 1.6 and 330 nm, respectively], under confinement with supercritical (sc) CO2. The thicknesses of brine films coating interior surfaces of SiO2 windows in a high-pressure cell were determined through synchrotron X-ray fluorescence of two tracer ions (I− and Cs+) at 7.8 MPa and 40°C (representative of conditions at about 0.78 km below the land surface), with scCO2 as the immiscible confining fluid. The measured area-averaged film thicknesses on the 330 nm Rrms silica surface ranged from 265 to 249 nm for capillary potentials measured within a narrow range from 0.18 to 3.7 kPa. Over this same range of potentials, film thicknesses measured on the smooth (1.6 nm Rrms) silica surface were about 2 nm, although equilibrium does not appear to have been achieved. The measured average brine film thicknesses were strongly controlled by surface roughness, with very weak variation in response to the fairly narrow range of tested capillary potentials.

Beschreibung: A well-established precept in forest hydrology is that any reduction of forest cover will always have a progressively smaller effect on floods with increasing return period. The underlying logic in snow environments is that during the largest snowmelt events the soils and vegetation canopy have little additional storage capacity and under these conditions much of the snowmelt will be converted to runoff regardless of the amount or type of vegetation cover. Here we show how this preconceived physical understanding, reinforced by the outcomes of numerous paired watershed studies, is indefensible because it is rationalized outside the flood frequency distribution framework. We conduct a meta-analysis of postharvest data at four catchments (3–37 km2) with moderate level of harvesting (33%–40%) to demonstrate how harvesting increases the magnitude and frequency of all floods on record (19–99 years) and how such effects can increase unchecked with increasing return period as a consequence of changes to both the mean (+11% to +35%) and standard deviation (−12% to +19%) of the flood frequency distribution. We illustrate how forest harvesting has substantially increased the frequency of the largest floods in all study sites regardless of record length and this also runs counter to the prevailing wisdom in hydrological science. The dominant process responsible for these newly emerging insights is the increase in net radiation associated with the conversion from longwave-dominated snowmelt beneath the canopy to shortwave-dominated snowmelt in harvested areas, further amplified or mitigated by basin characteristics such as aspect distribution, elevation range, slope gradient, amount of alpine area, canopy closure, and drainage density. Investigating first order environmental controls on flood frequency distributions, a standard research method in stochastic hydrology, represents a paradigm shift in the way harvesting effects are physically explained and quantified in forest hydrology literature.

Beschreibung: Surface transient storage (STS) has functional significance in stream ecosystems because it increases solute interaction with sediments. After volume, mean residence time is the most important metric of STS, but it is unclear how this can be measured accurately or related to other timescales and field-measureable parameters. We studied mean residence time of lateral STS in small streams over Reynolds numbers (Re) 5000–200,000 and STS width to length (W/L) aspect ratios between 0.2–0.75. Lateral STS have flow fields characterized by a shear layer spanning the length of the STS entrance, and one primary gyre and one or more secondary gyre(s) in the STS. The study's purpose was to define, measure, and compare residence timescales: volume to discharge ratio (Langmuir timescale); area under normalized concentration curve; and characteristic time of exponential decay, and to compare these timescales to field measureable parameters. The best estimate of STS mean residence time—primary gyre residence time—was determined to be the first characteristic time of exponential decay. An apparent mean residence time can arise, which is considerably larger than other timescales, if probes are placed within secondary gyre(s). The Langmuir timescale is the minimum mean residence time, and is linearly correlated to channel velocity and STS width. The lateral STS mean residence time can be predicted using a physically based hydromorphic timescale derived by Uijttewaal et al. (2001) with an entrainment coefficient of 0.031 ± 0.009 for the Re and W/L studied.

Beschreibung: Hydraulic stimulation of subsurface rocks is performed in developing geothermal and hydrocarbon reservoirs to create permeable zones and enhance flow and transport in low-permeability formations. Borehole fluid injection often induces measurable microearthquakes (MEQs). While the nature and source of the processes that lead to triggering of these events is yet to be fully understood, a major hypothesis has linked these events to an increase in pore pressure that decreases the effective compressional stress and causes sliding along preexisting cracks. Based on this hypothesis, the distribution of the resulting microseismicity clouds can be viewed as monitoring data that carry important information about the spatial distribution of hydraulic rock properties. However, integration of fluid-induced microseismicity events into prior rock permeability distributions is complicated by the discrete nature of the MEQ events, which is not amenable to well-established inversion methods. We use kernel density estimation to first interpret the MEQ data events as continuous seismicity density measurements and, subsequently, assimilate them to estimate rock permeability distribution. We apply the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for microseimic data integration where we update a prior ensemble of permeability distributions to obtain a new set of calibrated models for prediction. The EnKF offers several advantages for this application, including the ensemble formulation for uncertainty assessment, convenient gradient-free implementation, and the flexibility to incorporate various failure mechanisms and additional data types. Using several numerical experiments, we illustrate the suitability of the proposed approach for characterization of reservoir hydraulic properties from discrete MEQ monitoring measurements.

Beschreibung: Snow over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important water source of major Asian rivers and greatly influences water availability in the downstream areas. In this study, snow cover dynamics of the four characteristic lake basins, Cedo Caka, Selin Co, Nam Co, and Yamzhog Yumco during hydrological years 2001–2010 (September through August) are examined at the basin scale using the flexible multiday combined MODIS snow cover products. The time series of multiday, seasonal, and annual snow covered area (SCA), onset/disappearance dates of snow, snow covered days (SCD), peaks of maximum SCA, and snow cover index (SCI) for each hydrological year (HY) are examined. Results show there is no obvious trend of snow cover change in the examined period, although Nam Co basin has the greatest SCA in all four basins and in all years, and Cedo Caka and Selin Co basins show the smallest SCA in most of the years. Overall, the HY2007 shows a greater snow extent and HY2010 a smaller for the region, with exceptions for the Nam Co basin where the HY2003 is the greatest and for Cedo Caka basin where the HY2004 is the smallest. Statistical analysis between lake level changes and lake basin's SCA, precipitation and pan evaporation (ETpan) changes shows that (1) Cedo Caka's water level rise was highly correlated with the basin's SCA changes (r = 0.94, p = 0.063); (2) Selin Co's water level rise was significantly correlated with the basin's SCA, precipitation and ETpan changes (r = 0.99, p = 0.029); and (3) lake level changes of Nam Co and Yamzhog Yumco were correlated with their corresponding lake basin's SCA, precipitation and ETpan changes (r = 0.87 and r = 0.86, respectively), although insignificant at the 95% level. This could have been due to precipitation and ETpan data of a distant meteorological station for Nam Co lake basin and the complex hydrological processes in the Yamzhog Yumco basin. This study suggests that the examination of time series snow cover dynamics is important to evaluate the water budget of lake basins with snow as a major component of water balance.

Beschreibung: The predictive capacity of a physically based snow model to simulate point-scale, subcanopy snowmelt dynamics is evaluated in a mixed conifer forest, southern Sierra Nevada, California. Three model scenarios each providing varying levels of canopy structure detail were tested. Simulations of three water years initialized at locations of 24 ultrasonic snow depth sensors were evaluated against observations of snow water equivalent (SWE), snow disappearance date, and volumetric soil water content. When canopy model parameters canopy openness and effective leaf area index were obtained from satellite and literature-based sources, respectively, the model was unable to resolve the variable subcanopy snowmelt dynamics. When canopy parameters were obtained from hemispherical photos, the improvements were not statistically significant. However, when the model was modified to accept photo-derived time-varying direct beam canopy transmissivity, the error in the snow disappearance date was reduced by as much as one week and positive and negative biases in melt-season SWE and snow cover duration were significantly reduced. Errors in the timing of soil meltwater fluxes were reduced by 11 days on average. The optimum aggregated temporal model resolution of direct beam canopy transmissivity was determined to be 30 min; hourly averages performed no better than the bulk canopy scenarios and finer time steps did not increase overall model accuracy. The improvements illustrate the important contribution of direct shortwave radiation to subcanopy snowmelt and confirm the known nonlinear melt behavior of snow cover.

Beschreibung: We quantified all components of a fluvial sediment budget for a discrete flood on an aggrading gravel bed river. Bed load transport rates were measured at the upstream and downstream ends of a 4 km study area on the Provo River, Utah, during a dam-controlled flood. We also collected high-resolution measurements of channel topography before and after the controlled flood for the entire reach. Topographic uncertainty in the digital elevation models (DEM) was characterized using a spatially variable approach. The net sediment flux provided unambiguous indication of storage. Sediment input to the reach (319 m3) exceeded output (32 m3), producing a net accumulation of approximately 290 m3. The difference between the scour and fill was also positive (470 m3), but uncertainty in the topographic differencing was larger than the observed net storage. Thus, the budget would have been indeterminate if based on morphologic data alone. Although topographic differencing was not sufficiently accurate to indicate net storage, it was able to demonstrate that internal erosion was a larger sediment source than the net sediment flux. The magnitude of total erosion (1454 m3) and deposition (1926 m3) was considerably larger than net change in storage, showing that internal sources and sinks were the dominant driver of channel change. The findings provide guidance for the development of sediment budgets in settings in which one must choose between a morphological approach and the direct measurement of sediment flux.

Beschreibung: Soil erosion can severely degrade landscapes, and concentrated flows such as rills and gullies can be the dominant contributor to the soil losses. This paper examines the growth, development, and spatiotemporal evolution of rills and rill networks using a soil-mantled experimental landscape subjected to simulated rain and downstream base level lowering. Rill incision and network development and extension occurred due to actively migrating headcuts formed at the flume outlet by base level lowering. The communication of this wave of degradation due to this exogenic forcing occurred very quickly in space, and resulted in nearly the same amount of bed incision throughout the network. Rill incision, channel development, and peaks in sediment efflux occurred episodically, yet these were in direct response to the downstream base level adjustments. Although flows were supply limited, most of the sediment efflux was genetically linked to headcut development and migration. The geometry of the eroded rills and the rates of headcut migration were well correlated to overland flow rate. These findings have important implications for the prediction of soil loss, rill network development, and landscape evolution where headcut erosion can occur.

Beschreibung: In this study a conceptual model that accounts for the effects of nonequilibrium contaminant transport in a fractured porous media is developed. Present model accounts for both physical and sorption nonequilibrium. Analytical solution was developed using the Laplace transform technique, which was then numerically inverted to obtain solute concentration in the fracture matrix system. The semianalytical solution developed here can incorporate both semi-infinite and finite fracture matrix extent. In addition, the model can account for flexible boundary conditions and nonzero initial condition in the fracture matrix system. The present semianalytical solution was validated against the existing analytical solutions for the fracture matrix system. In order to differentiate between various sorption/transport mechanism different cases of sorption and mass transfer were analyzed by comparing the breakthrough curves and temporal moments. It was found that significant differences in the signature of sorption and mass transfer exists. Applicability of the developed model was evaluated by simulating the published experimental data of Calcium and Strontium transport in a single fracture. The present model simulated the experimental data reasonably well in comparison to the model based on equilibrium sorption assumption in fracture matrix system, and multi rate mass transfer model.

Beschreibung: Floodplain channels are important components of river-floodplain systems and are known to play a key role in hydrodynamic exchange and sediment transport. The Amazon floodplain exhibits complex networks of these channels, and despite their potential importance to this globally important wetland system, these floodplain channels are relatively unstudied. The research presented here is the first systematic and detailed study of the network and morphologic characteristics of a large number of these channels in the middle reach of the central Amazon River using analysis of data derived from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) mosaic and field survey. Our findings show that the channels are ubiquitous, their width varies widely, and some of their characteristics can be fitted using power laws, potentially much like the self-similar or fractal-like behavior hypothesized for other types of fluvial networks. In all, 96% of the floodplain channels are not wide enough to be represented well, or at all, in the ∼90 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data. Channel depths are tied closely to the local amplitude of the passing main river flood wave (p value of 0.75), except where there are local runoff inputs, which results in substantially deeper channels which provide preferential flow paths across the floodplain. Channel networks imply that areas of the floodplain function for large parts of the flood cycle as separate hydrogeomorphic land units, here termed floodplain hydrological units (FHUs). These hypothesized FHUs also have distinct spatial and pattern characteristics, and it is suggested here that their differences could provide the beginnings of a framework for understanding the detailed hydrodynamics of the floodplain. In particular, different types of FHUs have differences in flood water source, which will have important implications for biogeochemical studies of the wetlands.

Beschreibung: Improved predictions of hyporheic exchange based on easily measured physical variables are needed to improve assessment of solute transport and reaction processes in watersheds. Here we compare physically based model predictions for an Indiana stream with stream tracer results interpreted using the Transient Storage Model (TSM). We parameterized the physically based, Multiscale Model (MSM) of stream-groundwater interactions with measured stream planform and discharge, stream velocity, streambed hydraulic conductivity and porosity, and topography of the streambed at distinct spatial scales (i.e., ripple, bar, and reach scales). We predicted hyporheic exchange fluxes and hyporheic residence times using the MSM. A Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model was used to convert the MSM output into predictions of in stream solute transport, which we compared with field observations and TSM parameters obtained by fitting solute transport data. MSM simulations indicated that surface-subsurface exchange through smaller topographic features such as ripples was much faster than exchange through larger topographic features such as bars. However, hyporheic exchange varies nonlinearly with groundwater discharge owing to interactions between flows induced at different topographic scales. MSM simulations showed that groundwater discharge significantly decreased both the volume of water entering the subsurface and the time it spent in the subsurface. The MSM also characterized longer timescales of exchange than were observed by the tracer-injection approach. The tracer data, and corresponding TSM fits, were limited by tracer measurement sensitivity and uncertainty in estimates of background tracer concentrations. Our results indicate that rates and patterns of hyporheic exchange are strongly influenced by a continuum of surface-subsurface hydrologic interactions over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales rather than discrete processes.

Beschreibung: Securing water supplies in urban areas is a major challenge for policy makers, both now and into the future. This study aimed to identify the key determinants of household water use, with a view to identifying those factors that could be targeted in water demand management campaigns. Objective water use data and surveys were collected from 1008 households in four local government areas of southeast Queensland, Australia. Results showed that demographic, psychosocial, behavioral, and infrastructure variables all have a role to play in determining household water use. Consistent with past research, household occupancy was the most important predictor of water use. Households in regions recently exposed to drought conditions and higher-level restrictions also used less water than those who had less experience with drought. The effect of water efficient technology was mixed: some water efficient appliances were associated with less water use, while others were associated with more water use. Results also demonstrated the importance of considering water use as a collective behavior that is influenced by household dynamics. Households who reported a stronger culture of water conservation used less water. These findings, along with evidence that good water-saving habits are linked to water conservation, highlight the value of policies that support long-term cultural shifts in the way people think about and use water.

Beschreibung: Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change “signal” in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability “noise” shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Beschreibung: The goal of this study is to diagnose the manner in which radar-rainfall input affects peak flow simulation uncertainties across scales. We used the distributed physically based hydrological model CUENCAS with parameters that are estimated from available data and without fitting the model output to discharge observations. We evaluated the model's performance using (1) observed streamflow at the outlet of nested basins ranging in scale from 20 to 16,000 km2 and (2) streamflow simulated by a well-established and extensively calibrated hydrological model used by the US National Weather Service (SAC-SMA). To mimic radar-rainfall uncertainty, we applied a recently proposed statistical model of radar-rainfall error to produce rainfall ensembles based on different expected error scenarios. We used the generated ensembles as input for the hydrological model and summarized the effects on flow sensitivities using a relative measure of the ensemble peak flow dispersion for every link in the river network. Results show that peak flow simulation uncertainty is strongly dependent on the catchment scale. Uncertainty decreases with increasing catchment drainage area due to the aggregation effect of the river network that filters out small-scale uncertainties. The rate at which uncertainty changes depends on the error structure of the input rainfall fields. We found that random errors that are uncorrelated in space produce high peak flow variability for small scale basins, but uncertainties decrease rapidly as scale increases. In contrast, spatially correlated errors produce less scatter in peak flows for small scales, but uncertainty decreases slowly with increasing catchment size. This study demonstrates the large impact of scale on uncertainty in hydrological simulations and demonstrates the need for a more robust characterization of the uncertainty structure in radar-rainfall. Our results are diagnostic and illustrate the benefits of using the calibration-free, multiscale framework to investigate uncertainty propagation with hydrological models.

Beschreibung: Fluid-fluid interfacial areas in porous media are of considerable interest due to the impact they have on a wide range of practical applications involving mass transfer between phases, as well as for their importance in understanding unsaturated and multiphase flow behaviors in porous media. Tracer methods provide a low-cost experimental approach for determining interfacial areas in porous media. Although a number of different tracer methods have been developed, uncertainty remains as to exactly what areas they measure. The work presented here uses pore network model simulations to study the behavior of tracers during simulated tracer measurements for two different specific water-phase tracer methods: the dynamic-interface tracer depletion method and the miscible displacement tracer method. The hypothesis driving this work was that different tracer methods likely measure different areas as a result of the very different ways tracers are used. Experimental data sets for six different porous media were used to validate the model and provide comparison with model-simulated tracer-based area measurements. Results of the work suggest that areas measured using the dynamic-interface tracer depletion method closely match total fluid-fluid interfacial areas, as long as the extent of tracer depletion during the method is relatively small. However, areas measured with the miscible displacement method likely fall somewhere between capillary and total fluid-fluid areas. Calculations conducted with realistic diffusion coefficients and film thicknesses indicate that diffusion and head-driven flow in films are insufficient to allow significant tracer access to film area, suggesting the potential importance of other mechanisms. Calculations conducted as a part of the work suggest that Leverett estimates of maximum area formed during drainage may be closer to total areas than previously reported.

Beschreibung: A spatially explicit life cycle water analysis framework is proposed, in which a standardized water footprint methodology is coupled with hydrologic modeling to assess blue water, green water (rainfall), and agricultural grey water discharge in the production of biofuel feedstock at county-level resolution. Grey water is simulated via SWAT, a watershed model. Evapotranspiration (ET) estimates generated with the Penman-Monteith equation and crop parameters were verified by using remote sensing results, a satellite-imagery-derived data set, and other field measurements. Crop irrigation survey data are used to corroborate the estimate of irrigation ET. An application of the concept is presented in a case study for corn-stover-based ethanol grown in Iowa (United States) within the Upper Mississippi River basin. Results show vast spatial variations in the water footprint of stover ethanol from county to county. Producing 1 L of ethanol from corn stover growing in the Iowa counties studied requires from 4.6 to 13.1 L of blue water (with an average of 5.4 L), a majority (86%) of which is consumed in the biorefinery. The county-level green water (rainfall) footprint ranges from 760 to 1000 L L−1. The grey water footprint varies considerably, ranging from 44 to 1579 L, a 35-fold difference, with a county average of 518 L. This framework can be a useful tool for watershed- or county-level biofuel sustainability metric analysis to address the heterogeneity of the water footprint for biofuels.

Beschreibung: The D8, D8-LTD, D∞-LTD, D∞, MD∞, and MD8 flow direction methods are evaluated against field observations of overland flow dispersion obtained from novel experimental methods. Thin flows of cold water were released at selected points on a warmer slope and individual overland flow patterns originating from each of these points were observed using a terrestrial laser scanner and a thermal imaging camera. Land microtopography was determined by using laser returns from the dry land surface, whereas overland flow patterns were determined by using either laser returns or infrared emissions from the wetted portions of the land surface. Planar overland flow dispersion is found to play an important role in the region lying immediately downslope of the point source, but attenuates rapidly as flow propagates downslope. In contrast, existing dispersive flow direction methods are found to provide a continued dispersion with distance downslope. Predicted propagation patterns, for all methods considered here, depend critically on the size h of grid cells involved. All methods are found to be poorly sensitive in extremely fine grids (h ≤ 2 cm), and to be poorly specific in coarse grids (h = 2 m). Satisfactory results are, however, obtained in grids having resolutions h that approach the average flow width (50 cm), with the best performances displayed by the MD8 method in the finest grids (5 ≤ h ≤ 20 cm), and by the MD∞, D∞, and D∞-LTD methods in the coarsest grids (20 cm 〈 h ≤ 1 m).

Beschreibung: The complexity of hydrological systems and the necessary simplification of models describing these systems remain major challenges in hydrological modeling. Kirchner's (2009) approach of inferring rainfall and evaporation from discharge fluctuations by “doing hydrology backward” is based on the assumption that catchment behavior can be conceptualized with a single storage-discharge relationship. Here we test Kirchner's approach using a densely instrumented hydrologic measurement network spanning 24 geologically diverse subbasins of the Alzette catchment in Luxembourg. We show that effective rainfall rates inferred from discharge fluctuations generally correlate well with catchment-averaged precipitation radar estimates in catchments ranging from less than 10 to more than 1000 km2 in size. The correlation between predicted and observed effective precipitation was 0.8 or better in 23 of our 24 catchments, and prediction skill did not vary systematically with catchment size or with the complexity of the underlying geology. Model performance improves systematically at higher soil moisture levels, indicating that our study catchments behave more like simple dynamical systems with unambiguous storage-discharge relationships during wet conditions. The overall mean correlation coefficient for all subbasins for the entire data set increases from 0.80 to 0.95, and the mean bias for all basins decreases from –0.61 to –0.35 mm d−1. We propose an extension of Kirchner's approach that uses in situ soil moisture measurements to distinguish wet and dry catchment conditions.

Beschreibung: We used both time domain (deuterium) and source area (alkalinity) tracers to reduce uncertainty in simple conceptual rainfall-runoff models applied to a larger (749 km2) heterogeneous catchment with both upland and lowland headwaters. Stepwise, tracer-aided model development resulted in different model structures for the uplands and lowlands as representative elementary watersheds (REWs). These were differentiated by the parameterization of a nonlinear overland flow mechanism in the former, and the incorporation of high soil moisture storage capacity in the latter. Use of tracers and recession characteristics also helped to reduce parameter uncertainty and provided models that could simulate flows and tracer responses reasonably well over a full hydrological year. However, it was apparent that other processes (e.g., more complex mixing, fractionation, etc.) would need to be parameterized to explain the full variation in isotope dynamics. It is also evident that the information content of tracer data declines as the intensity of sampling decreases, particularly in the lowlands. The models of the REWs were coupled to provide plausible simulations of the up-scaled flow and tracer response at the outfall of the 749 km2 catchment, though the usefulness of source area tracers decreased markedly at this larger scale. Whereas the approach provides a step toward simple models that are likely to give the “right answer for the right reasons,” further improvements appear to require increased parameterization and/or higher-resolution tracer data.

Beschreibung: Hyporheic exchanges in riparian zones induced by stream stage fluctuations, referred to as bank storage, can influence contaminant transport and transformation when mixing of groundwater and surface waters with distinct chemical signatures occur, which might lead to a high biochemical activity. The effect of bank storage on nutrient transport was analyzed here using a two-dimensional, variably saturated and multispecies reactive transport model, which accounted for the water flow and solute transport and reactions within riparian zones. After verification with field observations, our model demonstrated that high biogeochemical activities occurred at the near-stream riparian zone during stage fluctuation, a process referred to as bank storage hot moment (BSHM). We used Monte Carlo simulations to study the uncertainty of BSHM and related nutrient dynamics to biogeochemical and hydrological factors. The results indicated that stream fluctuations can lead to maximum bank storage volume ranging from 0 to 259 m3 m−1 of stream linear length (median = 9.7 m3 and SD = 53.2 m3). Taking denitrification as an example, BSHM can lead to considerable NO3− removal with a median removal rate of 2.1 g d−1 and SD of 17.2 g d−1 per meter of stream linear length. The NO3− uptake velocity (median = 2.7 × 10−5 and SD = 2.4 × 10−4 m min−1) was comparable to that of in-stream transient storage from the literature. This result suggests that BSHM may be a significant process contributing to the nutrient budget at the ecosystem level. Finally, a theoretical framework representing the coupled hydrobiogeochemical controls on riparian hot spots was developed to help predicting when BSHM can become important in a particular stream.

Beschreibung: A generalized software package is presented for developing an intelligent agent for stochastic optimization of complex river-reservoir system management and operations. Reinforcement learning is an approach to artificial intelligence for developing a decision-making agent that learns the best operational policies without the need for explicit probabilistic models of hydrologic system behavior. The agent learns these strategies experientially in a Markov decision process through observational interaction with the environment and simulation of the river-reservoir system using well-calibrated models. The graphical user interface for the reinforcement learning process controller includes numerous learning method options and dynamic displays for visualizing the adaptive behavior of the agent. As a case study, the generalized reinforcement learning software is applied to developing an intelligent agent for optimal management of water stored in the Truckee river-reservoir system of California and Nevada for the purpose of streamflow augmentation for water quality enhancement. The intelligent agent successfully learns long-term reservoir operational policies that specifically focus on mitigating water temperature extremes during persistent drought periods that jeopardize the survival of threatened and endangered fish species.

Beschreibung: Geological and ecological processes play critical roles in the evolution of desert piedmonts. Feedback between fast cyclic biotic and slow cumulative pedogenic processes on arid alluvial fan systems results in a heterogeneous landscape of interspace and canopy microsites. Defining the spatial extent between these processes will allow a better connection to ecosystem service and climate change. We use a soil chronosequence in the Mojave Desert and high spatial resolution infiltrometer measurements along transects radiating from canopies of perennial shrubs to assess the extent of biotic and abiotic processes and the heterogeneity of soil properties in arid shrublands. Results showed higher saturated conductivity under vegetation regardless of surface age, but it was more conspicuous on older, developed soils. At proximal locations to the shrub, bulk density, soil structure grade, silt, and clay content significantly increased radially from the canopy, while sand and organic material decreased. Soil properties at distal locations 2–5 times the canopy radius had no significant spatial correlation. The extent of the biotic influence of the shrub was 1.34 ± 0.32 times the canopy radius. Hydraulic properties were weakly correlated in space, but 75% of the variance could be attributed to sand content, soil structure grade, mean-particle diameter, and soil organic material, none of which are exclusively biotic or abiotic. The fast cyclic biotic processes occurring under vegetation are clearly overprinted on slow cumulative abiotic processes, resulting in the deterministic variability observed at the plant scale.

Beschreibung: Two specific questions are addressed in this study regarding dams (artificial reservoirs). (1) Can a dam (artificial reservoir) and the land use/land cover (LULC) changes triggered by it physically alter extreme precipitation? The term extreme precipitation (EP) is used as a way of representing the model-derived upper bound of precipitation that pertains to the engineering definition of the standard probable maximum precipitation (PMP) used in design of dams. (2) Among the commonly experienced LULC changes due to dams, which type of change leads to the most detectable alteration of extreme precipitation? The American River Basin (ARW) and the Folsom dam were selected as a study region. Four scenarios of LULC change (comprising also various reservoir surface areas) were analyzed in a step by step fashion to elucidate the scenario leading to most significant impact on EP. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS, version 6.0) was used to analyze the impact of these LULC scenarios in two modes. In the first mode (called normal), the probable precipitation pattern due to each LULC scenario was identified. The second mode (called moisture-maximized), the PMP pattern represented from a 100% relative humidity profile was generated as an indicator of extreme precipitation (EP). For the particular case of ARW and Folsom dam, irrigation was found as having the most detectable impact on EP (a 5% increase in 72 h total for the normal mode and a 3% increase for the moisture-maximized mode) in and around the ARW watershed. Doubling the reservoir size, on the other hand, brought only a small change in EP. Our RAMS-simulated results demonstrate that LULC changes driven by surrounding landscape alteration resulting from the dams can, in fact, alter the local to regional hydrometeorology as well as extreme precipitation. There is a strong possibility of a positive feedback mechanism initiated by irrigated landscapes located upwind of orographic rain producing watersheds that are impounded by large dams.

Beschreibung: The complex conductivity of porous materials and colloidal suspensions comprises two components: an in-phase conductivity associated with electromigration of the charge carriers and a quadrature conductivity associated with the reversible storage of the charges at some polarization length scales. We developed a quantitative model to investigate the frequency domain induced polarization response of suspensions of bacteria and bacteria growth in porous media. Induced polarization of bacteria (α polarization) is related to the properties of the electrical double layer of the bacteria. Surface conductivity and α polarization are due to the Stern layer of counterions occurring in a brush of polymers coating the surface of the bacteria. These phenomena can be related to their cation exchange capacity. The mobility of the counterions in this Stern layer is found to be very small (4.7 × 10−10 m2 s−1 V−1 at 25°C). This implies a very low relaxation frequency for the α polarization of the bacteria cells (typically around 0.1–5 Hz), in agreement with experimental observations. This new model can be coupled to reactive transport modeling codes in which the evolution of bacterial populations are usually described by Monod kinetics. We show that the growth rate and endogenous decay coefficients of bacteria in a porous sand can be inferred nonintrusively from time-lapse frequency domain induced polarization data.

Beschreibung: Beneficiaries of common pool resources (CPRs) may select available noncooperative and regulatory exogenous institutions for managing the resource, as well as cooperative management institutions. All these institutions may increase the long-term gains, prolong the life of the resource, and help to escape the tragedy of the commons trap. Cooperative game theory approaches can serve as the backbone of cooperative CPR management institutions. This paper formulates and applies several commonly used cooperative game theoretic solution concepts, namely, the core, Nash-Harsanyi, Shapley, and nucleolus. Through a numerical groundwater example, we show how CPR users can share the gains obtained from cooperation in a fair and efficient manner based on these cooperative solution concepts (management institutions). Although, based on their fairness rationales, various cooperative management institutions may suggest different allocations that are potentially acceptable to the users, these allocation solutions may not be stable as some users may find them unfair. This paper discusses how different methods, such as application of the plurality rule and power index, stability index, and propensity to disrupt concepts, can help identify the most stable and likely solutions for enforcing cooperation among the CPR beneficiaries. Furthermore, how the noncooperative managerial characteristics of the CPR users can affect the stability and acceptability of the different cooperative CPR management institutions is discussed, providing valuable policy insights for cooperative CPR management at community levels.

Beschreibung: Coarse-resolution (upscaled) river networks are critical inputs for runoff routing in macroscale hydrologic models. Recently, Wu et al. (2011) developed a hierarchical dominant river tracing (DRT) algorithm for automated extraction and spatial upscaling of river networks using fine-scale hydrography inputs. We applied the DRT algorithms using combined HydroSHEDS and HYDRO1k global fine-scale hydrography inputs and produced a new series of upscaled global river network data at multiple (1/16° to 2°) spatial resolutions. The new upscaled results are internally consistent and congruent with the baseline fine-scale inputs and should facilitate improved regional to global scale hydrologic simulations.

Beschreibung: Regression-type, hybrid empirical/process-based models (e.g., SPARROW, PolFlow) have assumed a prominent role in efforts to estimate the sources and transport of nutrient pollution at river basin scales. However, almost no attempts have been made to explicitly accommodate interannual nutrient loading variability in their structure, despite empirical and theoretical evidence indicating that the associated source/sink processes are quite variable at annual timescales. In this study, we present two methodological approaches to accommodate interannual variability with the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nonlinear regression model. The first strategy uses the SPARROW model to estimate a static baseline load and climatic variables (e.g., precipitation) to drive the interannual variability. The second approach allows the source/sink processes within the SPARROW model to vary at annual timescales using dynamic parameter estimation techniques akin to those used in dynamic linear models. Model parameterization is founded upon Bayesian inference techniques that explicitly consider calibration data and model uncertainty. Our case study is the Hamilton Harbor watershed, a mixed agricultural and urban residential area located at the western end of Lake Ontario, Canada. Our analysis suggests that dynamic parameter estimation is the more parsimonious of the two strategies tested and can offer insights into the temporal structural changes associated with watershed functioning. Consistent with empirical and theoretical work, model estimated annual in-stream attenuation rates varied inversely with annual discharge. Estimated phosphorus source areas were concentrated near the receiving water body during years of high in-stream attenuation and dispersed along the main stems of the streams during years of low attenuation, suggesting that nutrient source areas are subject to interannual variability.

Beschreibung: The development of spatially continuous fields from sparse observing networks is an outstanding problem in the environmental and Earth sciences. Here we explore an approach to produce spatially continuous fields from discontinuous data that focuses on reconstructing gaps routinely present in satellite-based Earth observations. To assess the utility of the approach, we use synthetic imagery derived from a regional climate model of southeastern Australia. Orbital tracks, scan geometry influences, and atmospheric artifacts are artificially imposed upon these model simulations to examine the techniques' capacity to reproduce realistic and representative retrievals. The imposed discontinuities are reconstructed using a direct sampling technique and are compared against the original continuous model data: a synthetic simulation experiment. Results indicate that the multipoint geostatistical gap-filling approach produces texturally realistic spatially continuous fields from otherwise discontinuous data sets. Reconstruction results are assessed through comparison of spatial distributions, as well as through visual assessment of fine-scale features. Complex spatial patterns and fine-scale structure can be resolved within the reconstructions, illustrating that the often nonlinear dependencies between variables can be maintained. The stochastic nature of the methodology makes it possible to expand the approach within a Monte Carlo framework in order to estimate the uncertainty related to subsequent reconstructions. From a practical perspective, the reconstruction method is straightforward and requires minimum user intervention for parameter adjustment. As such, it can be automated to systematically process real time remote sensing measurements.

Beschreibung: In a world of increasing exposure of populations to natural hazards, the mapping of extreme rainfall remains a key subject of study. Such maps are required for both flood risk management and civil engineering structure design, the challenge being to take into account the local information provided by point rainfall series as well as the necessity of some regional coherency. Two approaches based on the extreme value theory are compared here, with an application to extreme rainfall mapping in West Africa. The first approach is a local fit and interpolation (LFI) consisting of a spatial interpolation of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution parameters estimated independently at each station. The second approach is a spatial maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE); it directly estimates the GEV distribution over the entire region by a single maximum likelihood fit using jointly all measurements combined with spatial covariates. Five LFI and three SMLE methods are considered, using the information provided by 126 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950–1990. The methods are first evaluated in calibration. Then the predictive skills and the robustness are assessed through a cross validation and an independent network validation process. The SMLE approach, especially when using the mean annual rainfall as covariate, appears to perform better for most of the scores computed. Using the Niamey 104 year time series, it is also shown that the SMLE approach has the capacity to deal more efficiently with the effect of local outliers by using the spatial information provided by nearby stations.

Beschreibung: The use of multiphysics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches to simulate surface–subsurface flow processes is evaluated by comparison with flume experiments on current-exposed permeable bed forms. The unique experimental data include measurements of the time-averaged surface water flow velocities, the pressure distribution at the sediment–water interface, and pore water flow paths. The modeling approach first simulates the time-averaged turbulent flow in the channel with CFD and then uses the predicted pressure distribution at the sediment–water interface to drive a flow and transport model for the sediment. The CFD-modeled velocity and pressure distribution and transient particle tracks within the sediment agree reasonably well with observations. Differences that exist between observations and simulations mainly concern the eddies in the wake zone downstream of the ripple crests that are slightly shorter than those predicted by the model. This deviation propagates from the surface to the subsurface domain, appearing in the pressure distribution along the bed and, consequently, the subsurface flow patterns. The good representation of general patterns and rates makes multiphysics CFD modeling a powerful and sufficiently accurate tool that can replace measurements for many studies of surface–subsurface processes involving current-exposed immobile bed forms. The approach can be used for predicting transport processes where they cannot easily be observed, such as in large rivers and coastal systems where boundary conditions such as mean currents and bed forms can be mapped.

Beschreibung: Hyporheic zone processes can have significant impact on groundwater and surface water resources. Detailed knowledge of exchange flow patterns is crucial for understanding the ecohydrological and biogeochemical functioning of river corridors. In particular, small-scale hyporheic exchange flow is still poorly understood, partially because of the lack of adequate in situ monitoring technology. This paper investigates the spatial heterogeneity of hyporheic exchange flow in a lowland river at multiple scales. It demonstrates the conjunctive use of active heat pulse tracing at shallow depths (15 cm) and vertical hydraulic gradients (VHG) at 120–150 cm streambed depth for improving the understanding of hyporheic exchange flow processes. Generally positive VHG indicated a regional dominance of groundwater up-welling. High and temporally variable VHG were used to identify confined conditions caused by low conductivity layers in the subsurface (low connectivity), while locations with lower and temporally less variable VHG indicated free groundwater up-welling (high connectivity) in highly conductive sediments. A heat pulse sensor (HPS) was applied for identifying shallow hyporheic flow at three locations representative for high versus low streambed connectivity. Shallow hyporheic flow patterns were found to be spatially heterogeneous. Subsurface flow could only partially be explained by streambed topography. Surface water infiltration and horizontal flow coincided with inhibited groundwater up-welling, whereas locations with high streambed connectivity were characterized by increased up-welling. The combined information of spatiotemporal VHG variability and flow vector frequency distribution by HPS has the potential to improve the understanding of impacts of streambed topography and subsurface stratification on hyporheic flow patterns.

Beschreibung: Solute diffusion flux in soil is described by Fick's law along with a tortuosity factor to account for the tortuous and reduced diffusive pathway blocked by soil particles. Predictive models based on empirical or conceptual relationships with other more commonly measured soil attributes have been proposed to replace the time-consuming and multifarious laboratory measurements. However, these models have not been systematically tested and evaluated with soils of different textures under comparable conditions. This study determined solute diffusion coefficients and calculated tortuosity factors of a sand, a sandy clay loam, and a clay at various degrees of water saturation, and used the experimental data to test the predictive capabilities of these models. All the test models can fit the experimental data reasonably well as evidenced by low root mean square errors (RMSEs). When the proposed (fixed) parameter values were used, the widely accepted Millington and Quirk tortuosity model resulted in highest RMSEs for all three test soils. In terms of model efficiency as described by Akaike weight, however, the tortuosity factors of the sand and sandy clay loam soils are best represented by a quadratic function of volumetric soil water content (with the largest Akaike weights), while the combined parallel-series conceptual model assuming different configurations of film and pore water is the best for the clay soil. The Olesen power function tortuosity model has the second largest Akaike weights for the sand and sandy clay loam soils, while the So and Nye linear model has the second largest Akaike weight for the clay soil. The two-region linear model of log (tortuosity factor) versus soil water content uses a similar framework to the conceptual model, and it can satisfactorily fit to the experimental data well (low RMSEs), but with low Akaike weights due to the large number of parameters in the model. Adaption of the findings from this study may substantially improve solute diffusion modeling in unsaturated porous media.

Beschreibung: This study investigates numerically the characteristics of upscaling the Manning resistance coefficient (nt) for areas covered by partially submerged vegetation elements, such as shrub or tree stems. A number of high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations were carried out corresponding to scenarios with different domain slopes (S), inflow rates (Q), bed roughness (nb), and vegetation cover fractions (Vf). Using simulations performed at fine space-time scales, two methods were developed for computing the upscaled Manning coefficient, termed “Equivalent Roughness Surface (ERS)” and “Equivalent Friction Slope (EFS).” Results obtained with these two methods indicate that both yield highly correlated estimates of nt. The effects of four independent variables (Vf, S, Q, and nb) on nt were further investigated. First, as Vf increases, nt also grows. Second, two distinct modes of the relationship between S and nt for a fixed Vf and Q emerge: a positive dependence at low-flow rates and a negative dependence at high-flow rates. For a fixed Vf and S, two distinct modes of the relationship between Q and nt are also identified: a positive dependence at mild domain slopes and a negative dependence at steep slopes. A regression analysis shows that the two conflicting trends can occur depending on whether the variability of flow depth with respect to S (or Q) is greater than the ratio of h and S (or Q). Third, a rougher soil bed (i.e., larger values of nb) implies a higher resistance due to vegetation. Last, the study argues that nt increases as h increases and decreases as V increases. A generic regression relation that includes all four of the above variables and the difference nt − nb (i.e., the additional resistance due to partially submerged vegetation representing the sum of the form and wave resistances) was developed. The range of applicability of this relation is given by the following conditions: Vf ≤ 0.5, 0.1 ≤ S ≤ 1.1, and 0.0001 ≤ Q ≤ 0.01. The difference nt − nb computed from the developed regression relation was compared with estimates reported by five different studies. Furthermore, the simulated wave resistance coefficients were compared with those predicted from an equation in a previous study; the estimates were consistent in the range of experimental conditions for which the latter equation was developed. The relationship is sufficiently general and applicable to other flow conditions with partially submerged roughness elements.

Beschreibung: This paper explores the use of a mixture model for determining the marginal distribution of hydrological variables, consisting of a truncated central distribution that is representative of the central or main-mass regime, which for the cases studied is a lognormal distribution, and of two generalized Pareto distributions for the maximum and minimum regimes, representing the upper and lower tails, respectively. The thresholds defining the limits between these regimes and the central regime are parameters of the model and are calculated together with the remaining parameters by maximum likelihood. After testing the model with a simulation study we concluded that the upper threshold of the model can be used when applying the peak over threshold method. This will yield an automatic and objective identification of the threshold presenting an alternative to existing methods. The model was also applied to four hydrological data series: two mean daily flow series, the Thames at Kingston (United Kingdom), and the Guadalfeo River at Orgiva (Spain); and two daily precipitation series, Fort Collins (CO, USA), and Orgiva (Spain). It was observed that the model improved the fit of the data series with respect to the fit obtained with the lognormal (LN) and, in particular, provided a good fit for the upper tail. Moreover, we concluded that the proposed model is able to accommodate the entire range of values of some significant hydrological variables.

Beschreibung: Hydrologic models are commonly calibrated by optimizing a single objective function target to compare simulated and observed flows, although individual targets are influenced by specific flow modes. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) emphasizes flood peaks in evaluating simulation fit, while modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (MNS) emphasizes lower flows, and the ratio of the simulated to observed standard deviations (RSD) prioritizes flow variability. We investigated tradeoffs of calibrating streamflow on three standard objective functions (NSE, MNS, and RSD), as well as a multiobjective function aggregating these three targets to simultaneously address a range of flow conditions, for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily streamflow simulations in two watersheds. A suite of objective functions was explored to select a minimally redundant set of metrics addressing a range of flow characteristics. After each pass of 2001 simulations, an iterative informal likelihood procedure was used to subset parameter ranges. The ranges from each best-fit simulation set were used for model validation. Values for optimized parameters vary among calibrations using different objective functions, which underscores the importance of linking modeling objectives to calibration target selection. The simulation set approach yielded validated models of similar quality as seen with a single best-fit parameter set, with the added benefit of uncertainty estimations. Our approach represents a novel compromise between equifinality-based approaches and Pareto optimization. Combining the simulation set approach with the multiobjective function was demonstrated to be a practicable and flexible approach for model calibration, which can be readily modified to suit modeling goals, and is not model or location specific.

Beschreibung: A model-based approach is implemented to attribute changes in the seasonal extreme river flows to meteorological drivers. A semidistributed model that simulates daily runoff from daily series of meteorological variables was employed together with a multisite, multivariable weather generator. Ensembles of synthetic meteorological variables were synthesized using the weather generator and were used to drive the hydrological model. In order to systematically assess the relative importance of each of the meteorological variables in explaining the detected changes in the flood behavior, the variables were generated by accounting for the year to year variability of the distribution of one of the variables at a time while keeping the distributions of the others temporally stationary. The approach was tested on eight case study catchments from different parts of Germany. The results show the ability of the approach in identifying the meteorological variable that is associated with the detected change in the extreme flow. Changes in precipitation were found to be the major meteorological drivers of the trends detected in the seasonal extreme flows in most of the investigated catchments. Temperature was found to be less important in explaining any of the changes in all catchments.

Beschreibung: We analyze the controls on flood duration based on the concept of comparative hydrology. Rather than modeling a single catchment in detail, we compare catchments with contrasting characteristics in order to understand the controls in a holistic way. We analyze the hydrographs of 9223 maximum annual flood events in 396 Austrian catchments ranging from 5 to ∼10,000 km2 as a function of climatic controls such as storm type (synoptic and convective storms, rain-on-snow, snowmelt), and catchment controls such as soils, soil moisture, geology, and land form. The ratio of the flood volume and the flood peak is used as a measure of the flood duration or flood timescale. The results indicate that, spatially, the median flood timescales range from 16 h in the hilly catchments, where convective storms prevail, to 104 h in the lowland catchments where substantial inundation into the floodplain occurs. The range is even larger for different flood types, from 7 h for flash floods in the hilly catchments to 200 h for snowmelt floods in an Alpine area with deeply weathered rocks and deep soils. The results also indicate that the catchment area is not the most important control on the flood timescales. For the range of catchments considered here, climate is very important through storm type and antecedent soil moisture, and geology is very important through soil characteristics. The concept of comparative hydrology is also used to interpret the interplay of the processes controlling the flood duration at timescales from hours to millennia. It is argued that the flood timescale is a rich fingerprint of the hydrological processes in a catchment because it integrates a range of climate and catchment characteristics by a time parameter.

Beschreibung: Large wood (LW) exerts an important influence on the geomorphology and ecology of streams and rivers. The magnitudes of flow forces on LW are needed to support stream management activities and are typically computed using time mean lift and drag coefficients determined in laboratory flumes using small, smooth cylinders. Herein we report measurements of forces on LW of varying complexity (simple cylinder, branching, and complex root wad) and surface (bark) roughness made in an outdoor grassed channel under steady and unsteady flows. LW orientation relative to the primary flow direction and LW relative submergence were varied. Drag and lift coefficients for cylindrical (unbranched) LW followed patterns reported by others for metal cylinders in wind tunnels. Drag coefficients for cylindrical (unbranched) LW, corrected for blockage effects, ranged from −0.05 to 1.29, and lift coefficients ranged from −0.88 to 0.52, varying systematically with LW position relative to the channel bed and incident flow direction. Measured drag coefficients for the noncylindrical LW, corrected for blockage effects, ranged from 0.22 to 6.27, while lift coefficients varied from −3.65 to 30.84. Systematic relationships between the relative submergence and orientation of branching LW and the drag and lift coefficients were not observed, but coefficients were greatest for LW with few branches and converged on smaller values typical of blunt bodies as LW complexity increased. For both simple and complex LW, maximum lift and drag forces during the rising limb of unsteady flows were about 2–3 times greater than steady flow temporal mean values.

Beschreibung: We report the results of a yearlong noble gas study conducted in 2008–2009 together with continuous physical and chemical measurements collected in a monitoring well in an aquifer in southern Michigan. Conditions near the water table are correlated with noble gas concentrations, corresponding noble gas temperatures (NGTs), and precipitation events. This yearlong study is the first noble gas field test that has employed natural recharge and in situ monitored conditions, with minimal disturbance of the unsaturated zone. This detailed study demonstrates that significant changes in conditions near the water table can occur over a year that can greatly affect NGTs. Results show that precipitation events are detected within hours at the water table, but a lag in pressure response argues for a long time constant for gas transport within the unsaturated zone. There is strong evidence for the depletion of oxygen near the water table, which affects the noble gas air-saturated water component. During reducing conditions there is evidence for significant noble gas degassing. Rain from the passage of Hurricane Ike caused a significant shift in stable isotope ratios and injection of a large quantity of excess air and likely led to a much more oxygen-rich environment in the soil gas. Although individual models can account for NGTs over portions of the record, no single NGT model can account for all features observed over the entire study. It is likely that the NGT temperature proxy must be viewed as an average of recharge conditions over several years.

Beschreibung: A lack of empirical evidence impedes assessment of the spatial and temporal extent of critical conditions for recurring high turbidity in large wind-exposed shallow lakes. Here spatiotemporal variation in total suspended matter (TSM) concentration was captured by processing 30 Envisat Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) images of a shallow lake (Markermeer) with a spectral matching algorithm. The TSM maps showed elevated downwind concentrations for moderate winds (from 4 to 9 m s−1), which occur 68% of the time. Regressions confirmed the relationship between hourly averaged wind speed and TSM. To explore critical conditions for resuspension, wind speed, linear fetch, and water depth were combined in a spatial model based on simplified linear wave equations. Remotely sensed TSM patterns matched predicted areas of resuspension from these wave equations. On average, over 70% of cells were true positive or negative, with elevated TSM matching the predicted resuspending bottom area and background TSM matching no resuspension. Images acquired during moderate winds register local resuspension. This implies that under these conditions, a critical shear stress threshold for resuspension is passed, followed by upward mixing over the few meters of water column. Images acquired during low wind speeds (≤3 m s−1) either do not show a TSM pattern or display settling because it takes several hours of low wind before all particles are removed from the visible top layer. Because of the good spatial matching, the resuspension model can also be used for future verification of the retrieval capacity of the spectral matching algorithm.

Beschreibung: Flash floods are an important component of the semiarid hydrological cycle, and provide the potential for groundwater recharge as well as posing a dangerous natural hazard. A number of catchment models have been applied to flash flood prediction; however, in general they perform poorly. This study has investigated whether the incorporation of light detection and ranging (lidar) derived data into the structure of a 1-D flow routing model can improve the prediction of flash floods in ephemeral channels. Two versions of this model, one based on an existing trapezoidal representation of cross-section morphology (K-Tr), and one that uses lidar data (K-Li) were applied to 5 discrete runoff events measured at two locations on the main channel of The Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, United States. In general, K-Li showed improved performance in comparison to K-Tr, both when each model was calibrated to individual events and during an evaluation phase when the models (and parameter sets) were applied across events. Sensitivity analysis identified that the K-Li model also had more consistency in behavioral parameter sets across runoff events. In contrast, parameter interaction within K-Tr resulted in poorly constrained behavioral parameter sets across the multidimensional parameter space. These results, revealed with a modeling focus on the structure of a particular element of a distributed catchment model, suggest that lidar derived cross-section morphology can lead to improved, and more robust flash flood prediction.

Beschreibung: Organic waste applications to soil (manure, various wastewaters, and biosolids) are among the most significant sources of bacterial contamination in surface and groundwater. Transport of bacteria through the vadose zone depends on flow path geometry and stability and is mitigated by interaction between soil, soil solution, air-water interfaces, and characteristics of microbial surfaces. After initial entry, the transport through soil depends on continued entrainment of bacteria and resuspension of those retained in the porous structure. We evaluated the retention of bacteria-sized artificial microspheres, varying in diameter and surface charge and applied in different suspending solutions, by a range of sieved soils contained in minicolumns, the transport of hydrophobic bacteria-sized microspheres through undisturbed soil columns as affected by waste type under simulated rainfall, and the field-scale transport of Enterococcus spp. to an unconfined sandy aquifer after the application of liquid manure. Microsphere retention reflected microsphere properties. The soil type and suspending solution affected retention of hydrophilic but not hydrophobic particles. Retention was not necessarily facilitated by manure-microsphere-soil interactions but by manure-soil interactions. Undisturbed column studies confirmed the governing role of waste type on vadose-zone microsphere transport. Filtration theory applied as an integrated analysis of transport across length scales showed that effective collision efficiency depended on the distance of travel. It followed a power law behavior with the power coefficient varying from ∼0.4 over short distances to 〉0.9 over 1 m (i.e., very little filtration for a finite fraction of biocolloids), consistent with reduced influence of soil solution and biocolloid properties at longer travel distances.

Beschreibung: The partitioning of available energy into dissipative fluxes over land surfaces is dependent on the state variable of the surface energy balance (land surface temperature) and the state variable of the surface water balance (soil moisture). The direct measurement of the turbulent fluxes is achieved with in situ instruments at tower sites. These point-scale measurements are sparsely distributed. Broader scale mapping of the turbulent fluxes is mostly dependent on land surface temperature (LST) and optical/infrared vegetation that can be sensed remotely. There are several data assimilation approaches currently in use that intake sequences of daytime LST that attain different diurnal amplitudes depending on available energy and the relative efficiency of surface energy balance to infer the magnitude of surface flux components such as latent and sensible heat flux. In this study we perform stability analysis on the evolution of LST in order to provide insights into the physical bases for why LST variations can be used to diagnose surface energy balance (SEB) components. The derived relative efficiencies of SEB components in dissipating available energy at the land surface are tested using two field experiment measurements. The results show that the theoretically derived relative efficiencies of SEB components agree well with field observations. The study provides insight into how LST sequences implicitly contain the signature of partitioning of available energy among SEB components and can be used to infer their magnitudes.

Beschreibung: Hyporheic hydrodynamics are a control on stream ecosystems, yet we lack a thorough understanding of catchment controls on these flow paths, including valley constraint and hydraulic gradients in the valley bottom. We performed four whole-stream solute tracer injections under steady state flow conditions at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon, United States) and collected electrical resistivity (ER) imaging to directly quantify the 2-D spatial extent of hyporheic exchange through seasonal base flow recession. ER images provide spatially distributed information that is unavailable for stream solute transport modeling studies from monitoring wells alone. The lateral and vertical extent of the hyporheic zone was quantified using both ER images and spatial moment analysis. Results oppose the common conceptual model of hyporheic “compression” by increased lateral hydraulic gradients toward the stream. We found that the extent of the hyporheic zone increased with decreasing vertical gradients away from the stream, in contrast to expectations from conceptual models. Increasing hyporheic extent was observed with both increasing and decreasing down-valley (i.e., parallel to the valley gradient) and cross-valley (i.e., from the hillslope to the stream, perpendicular to the valley gradient) hydraulic gradients. We conclude that neither cross-valley nor down-valley hydraulic gradients are sufficient predictors of hyporheic exchange flux nor flow path network extent. Increased knowledge of the controls on hyporheic exchange, the temporal dynamics of exchange flow paths, and their the spatial distribution is the first step toward predicting hyporheic exchange at the scale of individual flow paths. Future studies need to more carefully consider interactions between spatiotemporally dynamic hydraulic gradients and subsurface architecture as controls on hyporheic exchange.

Beschreibung: We tested a set of biogenic gas traps combined with time-lapse cameras to investigate the heterogeneous nature of biogenic gas ebullition events in subtropical peat soils at both the laboratory and field scale. The main findings are: (1) ebullition events in peat soils are highly heterogeneous; (2) estimates of flux rate are directly influenced by temporal scale of measurement with rapid (i.e., hourly) releasing events exceeding daily averages by one order of magnitude; and (3) increases in atmospheric pressure result in gas release from shallow peat soils into the atmosphere (i.e., ebullition), as indicated by a positive linear relation between changes in biogenic gas content and changes in atmospheric pressure. These results suggest that biogenic gas releases from shallow subtropical peat soils are not constant with larger than average daily fluxes being potentially released within hours during periods of increased atmospheric pressure. Furthermore, this study also shows the potential of time-lapse cameras for autonomously assessing the temporal variation in biogenic gas flux to the atmosphere from peatlands, and questions what temporal scale of measurement should be appropriate to infer dynamics of biogenic gas release in peat soils.

Beschreibung: The prevention of flood risks and the effective planning and management of water resources require river flows to be continuously measured and analyzed at a number of stations. For a given station, a hydrograph can be obtained as a graphical representation of the temporal variation of flow over a period of time. The information provided by the hydrograph is essential to determine the severity of extreme events and their frequencies. A flood hydrograph is commonly characterized by its peak, volume, and duration. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis (FA) approaches focused separately on each of these features in a univariate context. Recent multivariate approaches considered these features jointly in order to take into account their dependence structure. However, all these approaches are based on the analysis of a number of characteristics and do not make use of the full information content of the hydrograph. The objective of the present work is to propose a new framework for FA using the hydrographs as curves: functional data. In this context, the whole hydrograph is considered as one infinite-dimensional observation. This context allows us to provide more effective and efficient estimates of the risk associated with extreme events. The proposed approach contributes to addressing the problem of lack of data commonly encountered in hydrology by fully employing all the information contained in the hydrographs. A number of functional data analysis tools are introduced and adapted to flood FA with a focus on exploratory analysis as a first stage toward a complete functional flood FA. These methods, including data visualization, location and scale measures, principal component analysis, and outlier detection, are illustrated in a real-world flood analysis case study from the province of Quebec, Canada.

Beschreibung: Watersheds are drained by river networks, which route materials and energy from headwaters to terminal water bodies. River networks likewise perfuse the terrestrial portion of watershed ecosystems and reroute some of these materials upslope via material exchange between rivers and land. Here we develop a model of resource exchange between rivers and watersheds to predict the spatial extent of material and nutrient fluxes from aquatic portions of watershed ecosystems. The model is based on a geomorphic template that includes river network structure, topography, and channel sinuosity as well as important biological attributes (productivity and dispersal ability). Analysis of this model suggests that the geomorphic template strongly influences the spatial extent of resource flows in watershed ecosystems. The geomorphic template also predicts the location of areas of concentrated resource exchange, typically at ridge crests, in meander bends, and tributary junctions. We contend that these areas represent hotspots of foraging activity for terrestrial consumers, especially those at the reach scale (meander bends). More generally, our model suggests that the spatial extent of aquatic resource flow equal in magnitude to 20% or greater of terrestrial production may encompass as much as 20%–50% of terrestrial portions of watersheds. Resource flow from rivers to terrestrial ecosystems is not merely an edge effect. Instead, the river network may reroute a substantial flux of materials into watershed ecosystems.

Beschreibung: Leakage from geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites is inherently challenging to study because CO2, driven by buoyant forces, travels over long distances, undergoing phase changes and encountering numerous connate brine and formation chemistries as it rises to the surface. This work explores the effect that CO2 has on the rheological properties of brine solutions over a range of GCS-relevant temperature, pressure, ionic strength, and shear conditions. Under the fluid-liquid equilibrium conditions that prevail in the deep subsurface, viscosity of CO2-brine mixtures was found to be a function of temperature and pressure alone. Once leakage conditions ensue, discrete CO2 bubbles form in brine, resulting in the vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE), and these mixtures exhibit complex linear viscoelastic, time dependent, and thixotropic behavior. The presence of CO2(g) bubbles on the flow of the bulk fluid could have important impacts on impeding (via shear drag force) leakage depending on the geometrical, geochemical and geophysical characteristics of a storage site. Under VLE conditions, the effective viscosity of CO2-brine mixtures was found to be up to five times higher than brine alone but the microstructure was easily destroyed, and not readily regained, under high shear conditions. At higher temperatures and higher ionic strength, the effect is less pronounced. These results were considered in the context of flow through porous media, and the effect on buoyancy-driven flow is significant. Understanding this effect is important for developing an accurate constitutive relationship for leaking CO2, which will lead to better capacity to select and monitor GCS sites.

Beschreibung: This paper presents a method that uses high-resolution multispectral and thermal infrared imagery from airborne remote sensing for estimating two model parameters within the two-zone in-stream temperature and solute (TZTS) model. Previous TZTS modeling efforts have provided accurate in-stream temperature predictions; however, model parameter ranges resulting from the multiobjective calibrations were quite large. In addition to the data types previously required to populate and calibrate the TZTS model, high-resolution, remotely sensed thermal infrared (TIR) and near-infrared, red, and green (multispectral) band imagery were collected to help estimate two previously calibrated parameters: (1) average total channel width (BTOT) and (2) the fraction of the channel comprising surface transient storage zones (β). Multispectral imagery in combination with the TIR imagery provided high-resolution estimates of BTOT. In-stream temperature distributions provided by the TIR imagery enabled the calculation of temperature thresholds at which main channel temperatures could be delineated from surface transient storage, permitting the estimation of β. It was found that an increase in the resolution and frequency at which BTOT and β were physically estimated resulted in similar objective functions in the main channel and transient storage zones, but the uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters decreased.

Beschreibung: The estimation of surface heat fluxes based on the assimilation of land surface temperature (LST) has been achieved within a variational data assimilation (VDA) framework. Variational approaches require the development of an adjoint model, which is difficult to derive and code in the presence of thresholds and discontinuities. Also, it is computationally expensive to obtain the background error covariance for the variational approaches. Moreover, the variational schemes cannot directly provide statistical information on the accuracy of their estimates. To overcome these shortcomings, we develop an alternative data assimilation (DA) procedure based on ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) with the state augmentation method. The unknowns of the assimilation scheme are neutral turbulent heat transfer coefficient (that scales the sum of turbulent heat fluxes) and evaporative fraction, EF (that represents partitioning among the turbulent fluxes). The new methodology is illustrated with an application to the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) that includes areal average hydrometeorological forcings and flux observations. The results indicate that the EnKS model not only provides reasonably accurate estimates of EF and turbulent heat fluxes but also enables us to determine the uncertainty of estimations under various land surface hydrological conditions. The results of the EnKS model are also compared with those of an optimal smoother (a dynamic variational model). It is found that the EnKS model estimates are less than optimal. However, the degree of suboptimality is small, and its outcomes are roughly comparable to those of an optimal smoother. Overall, the results from this test indicate that EnKS is an efficient and flexible data assimilation procedure that is able to extract useful information on the partitioning of available surface energy from LST measurements and eventually provides reliable estimates of turbulent heat fluxes.

Beschreibung: Hyporheic and groundwater fluxes typically occur together in permeable sediments beneath flowing stream water. However, streambed water fluxes quantified using the thermal method are usually interpreted as representing either groundwater or hyporheic fluxes. Our purpose was to improve understanding of co-occurring groundwater and hyporheic fluxes using streambed temperature measurements and analysis of one-dimensional heat transport in shallow streambeds. First, we examined how changes in hyporheic and groundwater fluxes affect their relative magnitudes by reevaluating previously published simulations. These indicated that flux magnitudes are largely independent until a threshold is crossed, past which hyporheic fluxes are diminished by much larger (1000-fold) groundwater fluxes. We tested accurate quantification of co-occurring fluxes using one-dimensional approaches that are appropriate for analyzing streambed temperature data collected at field sites. The thermal analytical method, which uses an analytical solution to the one-dimensional heat transport equation, was used to analyze results from a numerical heat transport model, in which hyporheic flow was represented as increased thermal dispersion at shallow depths. We found that co-occurring groundwater and hyporheic fluxes can be quantified in streambeds, although not always accurately. For example, using a temperature time series collected in a sandy streambed, we found that hyporheic and groundwater flow could both be detected when thermal dispersion due to hyporheic flow was significant compared to thermal conduction. We provide guidance for when thermal data can be used to quantify both hyporheic and groundwater fluxes, and we show that neglecting thermal dispersion may affect accuracy and interpretation of estimated streambed water fluxes.

Beschreibung: Residual non-wetting phase saturation and wetting-phase permeability were measured in three limestones and four sandstones ranging in porosity from 0.13 to 0.28 and in absolute permeability from 2 × 10−15 to 3 × 10−12 m2. This paper focuses on the residual state established by waterflooding at low capillary number from minimum water saturation achieved using the porous plate technique, which yields the maximum residual under strongly water-wet conditions. The pore coordination number and pore body-throat aspect ratio of each rock were estimated using pore networks extracted from X-ray microtomography images of the rocks. Residual saturation decreases with increasing porosity, with no apparent difference in magnitude between the limestones and sandstones at a given porosity. Thus intraparticle/intra-aggregate microporosity does not significantly alter the efficiency of capillary trapping in the rocks considered presently. Residual saturation broadly decreases as conditions become less favorable for snap-off, i.e., with decreasing pore aspect ratio and increasing coordination number. The measured residual saturations imply that capillary trapping may be an effective mechanism for storing carbon dioxide in both sandstones and carbonates provided that the systems are strongly water-wet.

Beschreibung: This study was designed (1) to explore the links between climate variability and the population dynamics of closed-basin surface water bodies of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in North America, and (2) to test the validity of space-for-time (SFT) substitution approach for the analysis of hydrologic systems. Observational results from 1981 to 2000 show that the climate with respect to annual residual moisture (ε, i.e., precipitation minus potential evaporation or evapotranspiration) of the PPR changed across space (over 0.6 m) and time (over 0.3 m in central North Dakota), causing spatiotemporal variability in water areas and water body numbers. Spatial analysis of a suite of surface water complexes along a spatial ε gradient in the Missouri Coteau shows that a four parameter Boltzmann function quantitatively describes how the number of water bodies (N) varied as a function of 5-year average annual ε (R2 = 0.76). Temporal analysis of monthly N data (1931–2005) reconstructed by a hydrologic model also demonstrates that values of temporally varying N were highly correlated with ε and yielded a nearly identical Boltzmann function. This result confirms the validity of SFT substitution and suggests that detailed modern spatial data can be used to interpret hydrologic system behaviors under past or future climate conditions. This study also has important regional-scale implications for water resources management by providing a complete picture of the spatiotemporal water body distribution across the entire PPR and the potential for rapidly converting climate predictions into surface water assessments.

Beschreibung: Localization schemes using devices such as pilot points or anchors (localization devices) are used in inversion schemes as a tool for gleaning information from measurements that can be used to constrain inversion schemes with the added benefit in the form of a potential for reduction in the number of parameters employed in the inversion scheme. This paper proposes and demonstrates a method for strategic placement of the localization devices. The method combines stochastic singular value decomposition with parameter rejection methods to produce a map of “intensity” scores which allows the inverse modeler to place the localization devices at locations defined by their probability for producing informative, probabilistic constraints on the statistical distributions of the target variables. We also show that the method can be used for selecting measurement locations when designing data acquisition campaigns. The method is demonstrated for the case of steady state flow in a heterogeneous conductivity field using MAD (method of anchored distributions). In summary, the proposed localization scheme intends to increase the information gleaned from measurements while reducing the associated computational costs associated with stochastic inversion.

Beschreibung: In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the number of large floods reported since 1990. Using the same sample of countries as Bradshaw et al. (2007), and, like them, omitting socioeconomic characteristics from the analysis, we found that a reduction in natural forest cover is associated with an increase in the reported count of large floods. This result does not hold in any of three new analyses we perform. First, we expand the sample to include all the developing countries and all countries for which data were available but were omitted in their study. Second, and more importantly, since forest management is just one possible channel through which humans can influence reported flood frequency, we account for other important human–flood interactions. People are typically responsible for deforestation, but they are also responsible for other land use changes (e.g., urbanization), for floodplain and flood emergency management, and for reporting the floods. Thus, in our analysis we account for population, urban population growth, income, and corruption. Third, we exploit the panel nature of the data to control for unobserved country and time heterogeneity. We conclude that not only is the link between forest cover and reported flood frequency at the country level not robust, it also seems to be driven by sample selection and omitted variable bias. The human impact on the reported frequency of large floods at the country level is not through deforestation.

Beschreibung: Previously, Bárdossy and Pegram (2011) achieved downscaling of regional climate model (RCM) rainfall, dependent on circulation patterns (CPs), over 172 areas of the Rhine basin at the 25 km scale. Uneasy about the spatial statistics of the downscaled RCM rainfall, we calculated the spatial cross-correlation coefficients (CCCs) of daily rainfalls of the same set. We found that the CCCs of the RCM precipitations were significantly lower than those of the observations. CP-based downscaling led to an increase of the CCCs which still remained below the observed CCCs. This underestimation of spatial correlation, hence observed clustering, has potentially deleterious consequences for flood calculations over large areas based on RCM outputs, even after full CP-based bias elimination at the 25 km scale. In this paper we therefore describe two novel recorrelation methods designed to correct the CCCs of the RCM estimates back to those of the observed set before undertaking the final quantile-quantile transform. We use two methods of recorrelation: matrix methods and sequential regression. They both produced similar results and were successful in that they captured the observed CCCs almost exactly, coping with problems presented by the high proportion of dry days. In spite of the complete success of the recorrelation techniques (when comparing spatial correlations before and after treatment) the methodology does not solve the reconstitution problem fully: (1) extreme daily rainfall totals on large areas are not recaptured completely and (2) clustering behavior, as computed by entropy on nonoverlapping triple sites, confirms that the two-dimensional covariance dependence measure, although very effective, does not capture all of the clustering observed in natural rainfall.

Beschreibung: In analytical modeling of two-phase flow problems in porous media, the saturation profile for a fixed time can be obtained by using the method of characteristics (MOC). One of the basic assumptions in the application of the MOC is that the fractional flow is a function of saturation only. However, when gas is injected, it is often flowing under nonlinear flow conditions and inertial losses are significant in the near-well region. Therefore, in a radial displacement non-Darcy flow applies at the injection well, but as the saturation front gets further away, its velocity will decrease and the fractional flow curve will vary with the distance along the streamline. This paper presents the extension of the Buckley-Leverett analytical solution when the injected gas phase flow is governed by the two-phase extension to the Forchheimer equation and the fractional flow function depends both on the saturation and radial distance from the well. The behavior of a gas-liquid system under non-Darcy flow conditions is shown for carbon dioxide injection into saline aquifers. Finally, this analytical solution is tested against the corresponding finite difference numerical model and the limitations of the approach are discussed.

Beschreibung: We present an estimation of the permeability fields of the reservoir at the Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) at Soultz-sous-Forêts, France, based on the data assimilation technique Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). To this end, we assimilate data from a tracer circulation experiment performed in 2005. Using a 3-D numerical simulation of fluid transport and chemical tracer dispersion, we advance the tracer in time and control the concentration. With the EnKF we obtain reliable fits for concentration data recorded in both existing production boreholes, GPK2 and GPK4. As an alternative to discrete fracture networks, our heterogeneous equivalent porous medium approach thus can also characterize the hydraulically fractured zone of the engineered geothermal system. We present best estimates for permeabilities (10−14 m2–10−12 m2 for the fracture zone) and the corresponding uncertainty which is about one order of magnitude. After comparing our results to results from a massive Monte Carlo and from a gradient-based Bayesian approach, it becomes clear that only the EnKF of this three approaches is able to fit concentrations at GPK2 and GPK4 simultaneously. Based on the EnKF estimates obtained, a long-term performance prediction including an uncertainty analysis for the reservoir (as it was in 2005) yields no thermal breakthrough in the system within at least 50 years of operation. Our study demonstrates the efficiency of the EnKF when estimating the permeability distribution in an EGS reservoir even with sparse data available.

Beschreibung: Macroscale hydrologic models (MHMs) were developed to study changes in land surface hydrology due to changing climate over large domains, such as continents or large river basins. However, there are many sources of uncertainty introduced in MHM hydrological simulation, such as model structure error, ineffective model parameters, and low-accuracy model input or validation data. It is hence important to model the uncertainty arising in projection results from an MHM. The objective of this study is to present a Bayesian statistical inference framework for parameter uncertainty modeling of a macroscale hydrologic model. The Bayesian approach implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is used in this study to model uncertainty arising from calibration parameters of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) MHM. The study examines large-scale hydrologic impacts for Indian river basins and changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics, under climate change. Observed/reanalysis meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature and wind speed are used to drive the VIC macroscale hydrologic model. An objective function describing the fit between observed and simulated discharges at four stations is used to compute the likelihood of the parameters. An MCMC approach using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to update probability distributions of the parameters. For future hydrologic simulations, bias-corrected GCM projections of climatic variables are used. The posterior distributions of VIC parameters are used for projection of 5th and 95th percentile discharge statistics at four stations, namely, Farakka, Jamtara, Garudeshwar, and Vijayawada for an ensemble of three GCMs and three scenarios, for two time slices. Spatial differences in uncertainty projections of runoff and evapotranspiration for years 2056–2065 for the a1b scenario at the 5th and 95th percentile levels are also projected. Results from the study show increased mean monthly discharges for Farakka and Vijayawada stations, and increased low, mid and high duration flows at Farakka, Jamtara and Vijayawada for the future. However, it is seen that uncertainty introduced due to choice of GCM, is larger than that due to parameter uncertainty for the VIC MHM. The largest effects of runoff predictive uncertainty due to uncertainty in VIC parameters are seen in the Himalayan foothills belt, and the high-precipitation Northeast region of the country. It is demonstrated through the study that it is relevant and feasible to provide Bayesian uncertainty estimates for macroscale models in projection of large-scale and regional hydrologic impacts.

Beschreibung: Because the collection of data in water systems is important for making informed decisions, monitoring networks are designed and installed in such systems. Traditionally, the design of hydrometric monitoring networks has been concentrated on measuring streamflow/precipitation at particular key (gauged) sites so that streamflow/precipitation can be estimated accurately at ungauged sites. Although many methods take into account a set of final users of the information, there appears to be no method that explicitly considers them in the mathematical formulation of the decision-making process. This paper presents a novel approach for designing monitoring networks in a water system using the concept of value of information (VOI). This concept takes into account three main factors: (1) the belief that the decision maker has about the state of the water system before having any information; (2) the consequences associated with the decision of having to choose among several possible management actions given the state of the water system; and (3) the evaluation and update of new information when it becomes available. The methodology uses a water level time series generated by a hydrodynamic model at every computational point, each one being a potential monitor site. The method is tested in a polder system in the Netherlands, where monitoring is required to make informed decisions about the operation of a set of hydraulic structures to reduce flood impacts.