ALBERT

Description: The diurnal variations from a high-resolution regional climate model (Regional Spectral Model; RSM) are analyzed from 6 independent decade long integrations using lateral boundary forcing data separately from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40) and the 20 th Century Reanalysis (20CR). With each of these lateral boundary forcing data, the RSM is integrated separately using two convection schemes: the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes. The results show that RSM integrations forced with 20CR have the least fidelity in depicting the seasonal cycle and diurnal variability of precipitation and surface temperature over the Southeastern United States (SEUS). The remaining four model simulations show comparable skills. The differences in the diurnal amplitude of rainfall during the summer months of the 20CR forced integration from the corresponding NCEPR2 forced integration, for example, is found to be largely from the transient component of the moisture flux convergence. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the seasonal cycle of precipitation and surface temperature of the other four simulations (not forced by 20CR) were comparable to each other and highest in the summer months. But the RMSE of the diurnal amplitude of precipitation and the timing of its diurnal zenith were largest during winter months and least during summer and fall months in the four model simulations (not forced by 20CR). The diurnal amplitude of surface temperature in comparison showed far less fidelity in all models. The phase of the diurnal maximum of surface temperature however showed significantly better validation with corresponding observations in all of the 6 model simulations

Description: ABSTRACT A reactive transport modeling framework is presented that allows simultaneous assessment of groundwater flow, water quality evolution including δ 13 C, and 14 C activity or “age”. Through application of this framework, simulated 14 C activities can be directly compared with measured 14 C activities. This bypasses the need for interpretation of a 14 C age prior to flow simulation through factoring out processes other than radioactive decay, which typically involves simplifying assumptions regarding spatial and temporal variability in reactions, flow, and mixing. The utility of the approach is demonstrated for an aquifer system with spatially variable carbonate mineral distribution, multiple organic carbon sources, and transient boundary conditions for 14 C activity in the recharge water. In this case the simulated 14 C age was shown to be relatively insensitive to isotopic fractionation during DOC oxidation and variations in assumed DOC degradation behaviour. We demonstrate that the model allows quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding controls on groundwater age and water quality evolution for all three carbon isotopes. The approach also facilitates incorporation of multiple environmental tracers and combination with parameter optimization techniques. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Water scarcity is likely to increase in the coming years, making improvements in irrigation efficiency increasingly important. An emerging technology that promises to increase irrigation efficiency substantially is a wireless irrigation sensor network that uploads sensor data into irrigation management software, creating an integrated system that allows real-time monitoring and control of moisture status that has been shown in experimental settings to reduce irrigation costs, lower plant loss rates, shorten production times, decrease pesticide application, and increase yield, quality, and profit. We use an original survey to investigate likely initial acceptance, ceiling adoption rates, and profitability of this new sensor network technology in the nursery and greenhouse industry. We find that adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are decreasing in price, as expected. The price elasticity of the probability of adoption suggests that sensor networks are likely to diffuse at a rate somewhat greater than that of drip irrigation. Adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are increasing in specialization in ornamental production: Growers earning greater shares of revenue from greenhouse and nursery operations are willing to pay more for a base system and are willing to purchase larger numbers of expansion components at any given price. We estimate that growers who are willing to purchase a sensor network expect investment in this technology to generate significant profit, consistent with findings from experimental studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: A high-resolution transect of atmospheric soundings across the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea was conducted onboard a ship in June 2012 with the objective of analyzing the influence of the complex sea surface temperature (SST) distribution on the Baiu frontal zone (BFZ). Expendable bathythermograph castings and continuous surface meteorological observations were also examined. Two distinct mesoscale atmospheric fronts, characterized by changes of wind direction in the lower troposphere and surface air temperature (SAT), were found in the BFZ. One (northern) atmospheric front was observed around the SST front in relation to a warm water tongue extending from the Kuroshio. A high SST region around the northern atmospheric front enhances unstable near surface stratification and intensifies turbulent heat flux. They help modify the marine atmospheric boundary layer in the BFZ. The other (southern) atmospheric front was at the southern end of the BFZ. Intense evaporation over the Kuroshio and moisture transport by southerly winds were important in forming the conditionally unstable air masses in the lower troposphere of the BFZ.

Description: We analyze the variability of mean age of air (AoA) and of the local effects of the stratospheric residual circulation and eddy mixing on AoA within the framework of the isentropic zonal mean continuity equation. AoA for the period 1988–2013 has been simulated with the Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS driven by ERA-Interim winds and diabatic heating rates. Model simulated AoA in the lower stratosphere shows good agreement with both in-situ observations and satellite observations from MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding), even regarding interannual variability and changes during the last decade. The interannual variability throughout the lower stratosphere is largely affected by the QBO-induced circulation and mixing anomalies, with year-to-year AoA changes of about 0.5 years. The decadal 2002–2012 change shows decreasing AoA in the lowest stratosphere, below about 450 K. Above, AoA increases in the NH and decreases in the SH. Mixing appears to be crucial for understanding AoA variability, with local AoA changes resulting from a close balance between residual circulation and mixing effects. Locally, mixing increases AoA at low latitudes (40S-40N) and decreases AoA at higher latitudes. Strongest mixing occurs below about 500 K, consistent with the separation between shallow and deep circulation branches. The effect of mixing integrated along the air parcel path, however, significantly increases AoA globally, except in the polar lower stratosphere. Changes of local effects of residual circulation and mixing during the last decade are supportive of a strengthening shallow circulation branch in the lowest stratosphere and a southward shifting circulation pattern above.

Description: The interaction between sea ice and atmosphere depends strongly on the near-surface transfer coefficients for momentum and heat. A parametrization of these coefficients is developed on the basis of an existing parametrization of drag coefficients for neutral stratification that accounts for form drag caused by the edges of ice floes and melt ponds. This scheme is extended to better account for the dependence of surface wind on limiting cases of high and low ice concentration and to include near-surface stability effects over open water and ice on form drag. The stability correction is formulated on the basis of stability functions from Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and also using the Louis concept with stability functions depending on thebulk Richardson numbers. Furthermore, a parametrization is proposed that includes the effect of edge related turbulence also on heat transfer coefficients. The parametrizations are available in different levels of complexity. The lowest level only needs sea ice concentration and surface temperature as input while the more complex level needs additional sea ice characteristics. An important property of our parametrization is that form drag caused by ice edges depends on the stability over both ice and water which is in contrast to the skin drag over ice. Results of the parametrization show that stability has a large impact on form drag and, thereby, determines the value of sea ice concentration for which the transfer coefficients reach their maxima. Depending on the stratification, these maxima can occur anywhere between ice concentrations of 20 and 80%.

Description: This technical note presents a useful methodology for studying how the variance of hydraulic and/or reactive attributes of an aquifer are linked to the multi-scaled and hierarchical sedimentary architecture of the aquifer. A new recursive equation is derived which quantitatively describes how the variance is related to sedimentary facies defined at all scales across an entire stratal hierarchy. As compared to prior published equations that emphasize differences in means among facies populations within a hierarchical level, it emphasizes differences across levels. Because of the hierarchical relationships among the terms of the equation, we find it to be useful for conducting a holistic analysis of the relative contributions to the variance arising from all facies types defined across all scales. The methodology is demonstrated using appropriate field data, and is shown to be useful in defining parsimonious classification systems.

Description: ABSTRACT A primary concern for geologic carbon storage is the potential for leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the shallow subsurface where it could degrade the quality of groundwater and surface water. In order to predict and mitigate the potentially negative impacts of CO 2 leakage, it is important to understand the physical processes that CO 2 will undergo as it moves through naturally heterogeneous porous media formations. Previous studies have shown that heterogeneity can enhance the evolution of gas phase CO 2 in some cases, but the conditions under which this occurs have not yet been quantitatively defined, nor tested through laboratory experiments. This study quantitatively investigates the effects of geologic heterogeneity on the process of gas phase CO 2 evolution in shallow aquifers through an extensive set of experiments conducted in a column that was packed with layers of various test sands. Soil moisture sensors were utilized to observe the formation of gas phase near the porous media interfaces. Results indicate that the conditions under which heterogeneity controls gas phase evolution can be successfully predicted through analysis of simple parameters, including the dissolved CO 2 concentration in the flowing water, the distance between the heterogeneity and the leakage location, and some fundamental properties of the porous media. Results also show that interfaces where a less permeable material overlies a more permeable material affect gas phase evolution more significantly than interfaces with the opposite layering.

Description: Fluvial sediment loads are frequently calculated with rating curves fit to measured sediment transport rates. Rating curves are often treated as statistical representations in which the fitted parameters have little or no physical meaning. Such models, however, may produce large errors when extrapolation is needed, and they provide no insight into the sediment transport process. It is shown that log-linear least squares, the usual method for fitting rating curves, does not generally produce physically meaningful parameter values. In addition, it cannot accommodate data that include zero-transport samples. Alternative fitting methods based non-linear least squares and on maximum likelihood parameter estimation are described and evaluated. The maximum likelihood approach is shown to fit synthetic data better than linear or non-linear least squares, and to perform well with data that include zero-transport samples. In contrast, non-linear least squares methods produce large errors in the parameter estimates when zero-transport samples are present or when the variance structure of the data is incorrectly specified. Analyses with fractional bedload data from a mountain stream suggest that bedload transport rates are gamma distributed, that the arrivals of bedload particles in a sampler conform to a Poisson distribution, and that the variance of non-zero samples can be expressed as a power function of the mean. Preliminary physical interpretations of variations in the rating curve parameters fit to fractional bedload data with the maximum likelihood method are proposed, and their relation to some previous interpretations of rating curve parameters are briefly discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 injected a large amount of SO 2 into the stratosphere, which formed sulfate aerosols. Increased scattering and absorption of UV radiation by the enhanced stratospheric SO 2 and aerosols decreased the amount of UV radiation reaching the troposphere, causing changes in tropospheric photochemistry. These changes affected the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and the removal rate of CH 4 in the years following the eruption. We use the three-dimensional chemistry transport model TM5 coupled to the aerosol microphysics module M7 to simulate the evolution of SO 2 and sulfate aerosols from the Pinatubo eruption. Their effect on tropospheric photolysis frequencies and concentrations of OH and CH 4 are quantified for the first time. We find that UV attenuation by stratospheric sulfur decreased the photolysis frequencies of both ozone and NO 2 by about 2% globally, decreasing global OH concentrations by a similar amount in the first two years after the eruption. SO 2 absorption mainly affects OH primary production by ozone photolysis, while aerosol scattering also alters OH recycling. The effect of stratospheric sulfur on global OH and CH 4 is dominated by the effect of aerosol extinction, while SO 2 absorption contributes by 12.5% to the overall effect in the first year after the eruption. The reduction in OH concentrations causes an increase in the CH 4 growth rate of 4 and 2 ppb/yr in the first and second year after the eruption, respectively, contributing 11 Tg to the 27 Tg observed CH 4 burden change in late 1991 and early 1992.

Description: Emission source contributions of tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) were comprehensively investigated by using the higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) for sensitivity analysis and the ozone source apportionment technology (OSAT) for mass balance analysis in the comprehensive air-quality model with extensions (CAMx). The response of O 3 to emissions reductions at various levels in mainland China, Korea, and Japan were estimated and compared with results calculated by the brute force method (BFM) where one model parameter is varied at a time. Emissions were assessed at three receptor sites in Japan that experienced severe pollution events in May 2009. For emissions from China, HDDM assessed O 3 response with a bias of only up to 3 ppbv (a relative error of 4.5%) even for a 50% reduction, but failed to assess a more extreme reduction. OSAT was reasonably accurate at 100% reduction, with a −4 ppbv (−7%) bias, but was less accurate at moderate ranges of reduction (⊔50-70%). For emissions from Korea and Japan, HDDM captured the nonlinear response at all receptor sites and at all reduction levels to within 1% in all but one case; however, the bias of OSAT increased with the increasing reduction of emissions. One possible reason for this is that OSAT does not account for NO titration. To address this, a term for potential ozone (PO; O 3 and NO 2 together) was introduced. Using of PO instead of O 3 improved the performance of OSAT, especially for emissions reductions from Korea and Japan. The proposed approach with PO refined the OSAT results and did not degrade HDDM performance.

Description: Using observed precipitation and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the changes in the metrics of the summer precipitation in China, the dominance of frequency and intensity of daily extreme precipitation, and the linkage with changes in moisture and air temperature are explored. Results show that over the recent 50 years, total summer rainfall increased over the southeast and the west and decreased over the northeast. The changes in the frequency, identified with the 95% threshold and Poisson regression, and rainfall extremes show similar spatial patterns. The relative importance of the changes in frequency and intensity in the variability and changes in extreme precipitation is estimated. It is shown that, while the interannual variability of the rainfall amount is dominated by the frequency change in almost all stations, the long-term change of rainfall amount can be dominated by both frequency and intensity, depending on the station. The change in the rainfall total is linked to changes in atmospheric moisture and temperature. Results show that the variability and change of the rainfall total can be dominated by changes in both moisture and air temperature, and the relative importance depends on the region.

Description: We examine variations in water vapor in air entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past three decades in satellite data and in a trajectory model. Most of the variance can be explained by three processes that affect the TTL: the quasi-biennial oscillation, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and the temperature of the tropical troposphere. When these factors act in phase, significant variations in water entering the stratosphere are possible. We also find that volcanic eruptions, which inject aerosol into the TTL, affect the amount of water entering the stratosphere. While there is clear decadal variability in the data and models, we find little evidence for a long-term trend in water entering the stratosphere through the TTL over the past 3 decades.

Description: Eight months (June 2011-January 2012) of aerosol property data were obtained at the remote site of Alborán Island (35.95 ° N, 3.03 ° W) in the western Mediterranean basin. The aim of this work is to assess the aerosol properties according to air-mass origin and transport over this remote station with a special focus on air mass transport from North Africa. For air masses coming from North Africa, different aerosol properties showed strong contributions from mineral dust lifted from desert areas. Nevertheless, during these desert dust intrusions, some atmospheric aerosol properties are clearly different from pure mineral dust particles. Thus, Angström exponent α(440–870) presents larger values than those reported for pure desert dust measured close to dust source regions. These results combine with α(440,670)-α(670,870) ≥ 0.1 and low single scattering albedo (ω(λ)) values, especially at the largest wavelengths. Most of the desert dust intrusions over Alborán can be described as a mixture of dust and anthropogenic particles. The analyses support that our results apply to North Africa desert dust air masses transported from different source areas. Therefore, our results indicate a significant contribution of fine absorbing particles during desert dust intrusions over Alborán arriving from different source regions. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) data retrieved from sun-photometer measurements have been used to check MODIS retrievals, and they show reasonable agreement, especially for North African air masses.

Description: The impact of aircraft type on contrail evolution is assessed using a large-eddy simulation (LES) model with Lagrangian ice microphysics. Six different aircraft ranging from the small regional airliner Bombardier CRJ to the largest aircraft Airbus A380 are taken into account. Differences in wake vortex properties and fuel flow lead to considerable variations in the early contrail geometric depth and ice crystal number. Larger aircraft produce contrails with more ice crystals (assuming that the number of initially generated ice crystals per kg fuel is constant). These initial differences are reduced in the first minutes, as the ice crystal loss during the vortex phase is stronger for larger aircraft. In supersaturated air, contrails of large aircraft are much deeper after 5 minutes than those of small aircraft. A parametrization for the final vertical displacement of the wake vortex system is provided, depending only on the initial vortex circulation and stratification. Cloud resolving simulations are used to examine whether the aircraft-induced initial differences have a long-lasting mark. These simulations suggest that the synoptic scenario controls the contrail-cirrus evolution qualitatively. However, quantitative differences between the contrail-cirrus properties of the various aircraft remain over the total simulation period of six hours. The total extinctions of A380-produced contrails are about 1.5 to 2.5 times higher than those from contrails of a Bombardier CRJ.

Description: Quantifying the effects of urban land-use/land-cover with regard to surface radiation and heat-flux regulation is important to ecological planning and heat stress mitigation. To retrieve the spatial pattern of heat fluxes in the Beijing metropolitan area, China, a remote sensing–based energy balance model was calibrated with synchronously measured energy fluxes including net radiation, latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H). Our model calibration approach avoided the uncertainties due to subjective judgments in previous empirical parameterization methods. The land surface temperature (LST), H, and Bowen ratio (β) of Beijing were found to increase along the outskirt-suburban-urban gradient, with strong spatial variation. LST and H were negatively correlated with vegetation fraction cover (VFC). For example, the modern high-rise residential areas with relatively higher VFC had lower H and β than the traditional low-rise residential areas. Our findings indicate thermal dissipation through vegetation transpiration might play an important role in urban heat regulation. Notably, the thermal-dissipating strength of vegetation (calculated as LE/VFC) declined exponentially with increased VFC. For the purpose of heat stress regulation, we recommend upgrading the traditional low-rise residential areas to modern high-rise residential areas and focusing urban greenery projects in areas whose VFC 〈 0.1, where the heat-regulating service by urban vegetation could be twice as effective as in other places.

Description: ABSTRACT Urban areas have different climatology with respect to their rural surroundings. Though urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is especially prevalent in India, where urban areas have experienced an unprecedented rate of growth over the last 30 years. Here we take up an observational study to understand the influence of urbanization on the characteristics of precipitation (specifically extremes) in India. We identify 42 urban regions, and compare their extreme rainfall characteristics with those of surrounding rural areas. We observe that, on an overall scale, the urban signatures on extreme rainfall are not prominently and consistently visible, but they are spatially non uniform. Zonal analysis reveals significant impacts of urbanization on extreme rainfall in central and western regions of India. An additional examination, to understand the influences of urbanization on heavy rainfall climatology, is carried with station level data using a statistical method, quantile regression. This is performed for the most populated city of India, Mumbai, in pair with a nearby non–urban area, Alibaug; both having similar geographic location. The derived extreme rainfall regression quantiles reveal the sensitivity of extreme rainfall events to the increased urbanization. Overall the study identifies the climatological zones in India, where, increased urbanization affects regional rainfall pattern and extremes, with a detailed case study of Mumbai. This also calls attention to the need of further experimental investigation, for the identification of the key climatological processes, in different regions of India, affected by increased urbanization.

Description: The Victoria mode (VM) represents the second dominant mode (EOF2) of North Pacific variability, independent of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and is defined as the EOF2 of SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific poleward of 20°N. The present study indicates that the VM is closely linked to the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The VM may effectively act as an ocean bridge (or conduit) through which the extratropical atmospheric variability in the North Pacific influences ENSO. The VM can trigger the onset of ENSO via the following two dominant processes: 1) surface air–sea coupling associated with the VM in the subtropical/tropical Pacific and 2) evolution of subsurface ocean temperature anomalies along the equator associated with the VM. These two processes may force sufficient surface warming to occur in the central–eastern equatorial Pacific from spring to summer, which in turn initiates an ENSO event. The VM influence on ENSO relies on a basin-scale air–sea interaction dynamic, as opposed to more local-scale dynamics typically associated with the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) or Pacific meridional mode (PMM). The majority of VM events are followed by ENSO events. These ENSO events triggered by VM include El Niño Modoki (EM) as well as conventional El Niño. There is no evidence that the VM tends to be more conducive to the initialization of EM than conventional El Niño.

Description: It has been well documented that there is an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific (WNPAC, hereafter) during El Niño decaying summer. This El Niño − WNPAC relationship is greatly useful for the seasonal prediction of summer climate in the WNP and East Asia. In this study, we investigate the modification of the El Niño–WNPAC relationship induced by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the WNPAC during the El Niño decaying summer, as well as the associated precipitation anomaly over the WNP, is intensified under the weakened THC. On the one hand, this intensification is in response to the increased amplitude and frequency of El Niño events in the water-hosing experiment. On the other hand, this intensification is also because of greater climatological humidity over the western to central North Pacific under the weakened THC. We suggest that the increase of climatological humidity over the western to central North Pacific during summer under the weakened THC is favourable for enhanced interannual variability of precipitation, and therefore favourable for the intensification of the WNPAC during El Niño decaying summer. This study suggests a possible modulation of the ENSO–WNP summer monsoon relationship by the low frequency fluctuation of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). The results offer an explanation for the observed modification of the multidecadal fluctuation of El Niño–WNPAC relationship by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO).

Description: Line-by-line radiative transfer computations show that the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on gas concentration not only applies to broadband irradiation fluxes such as in the well-known case of the CO 2 forcing, but also applies to the spectral radiance change due to both CO 2 and other gases, such as H 2 O. That the logarithmic relationship holds for monochromatic radiance requires an explanation beyond the conventional ideas based on the spectroscopic features of the gas absorption lines. We show that the phenomenon can be explained by an Emission Layer Displacement Model , which describes the radiance response to gas perturbation under normal atmospheric conditions such as temperature linearly varying with height and gas concentration exponentially decaying with height.

Description: Seasonal mean rainfall projections for Hawai‘i are given based on statistical downscaling of the latest CMIP5 global model results for two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The spatial information content of our statistical downscaling (SD) method is improved over previous efforts through the inclusion of spatially extensive, high quality monthly rainfall data set and the use of improved large-scale climate predictor information. Predictor variables include moisture transport in the middle atmosphere (700 hPa), vertical temperature gradients, and geopotential height fields of the 1000 and 500 hPa layers. The results allow for the first time to derive a spatially interpolated map with future rainfall change estimates for the main Hawaiian Islands. The statistical downscaling was applied to project wet (November-April) and dry (May-October) season rainfall anomalies for the mid and late 21 st century. Overall, the statistical downscaling gives more reliable results for the wet season than the dry season. The wet season results indicate a pronounced dipole structure between windward-facing mountain slopes and the leeward side of most of the islands. The climatically wet regions on the windward slopes of the mountain regions are expected to become wetter or remain stable in their seasonal precipitation amounts. On the climatically dry leeward sides Kaua‘i, O‘ahu Maui and Hawai‘i Island, future precipitation exhibits the strongest drying trends. The projected future rainfall anomaly pattern is associated with a circulation anomaly that resembles a shift in the position or strength of the subtropical high and the average location of extratropical troughs. These new results suggest that a negative trend dominates the area-averaged changes in the statistical downscaling over the Hawaiian Islands. However, the islands are expected to experience a greater contrast between the wet and dry regions in future.

Description: [1]  Acquiring accurate measurements of water vapor at the low mixing ratios (〈 10 ppm) encountered in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere has proven to be a significant analytical challenge evidenced by persistent disagreements between high-precision hygrometers. These disagreements have caused uncertainties in the description of the physical processes controlling dehydration of air in the tropical tropopause layer and entry of water into the stratosphere, and have hindered validation of satellite water vapor retrievals. A 2011 airborne intercomparison of a large group of in situ hygrometers onboard the NASA WB-57F high-altitude research aircraft and balloons has provided an excellent opportunity to evaluate progress in the scientific community towards improved measurement agreement. In this work we intercompare the measurements from the Mid-latitude Airborne Cirrus Properties Experiment (MACPEX) and discuss the quality of agreement. Differences between values reported by the instruments were reduced in comparison to some prior campaigns, but were non-negligible and on the order of 20% (0.8 ppm). Our analysis suggests that unrecognized errors in the quantification of instrumental background for some or all of the hygrometers are a likely cause. Until these errors are understood, differences at this level will continue to somewhat limit our understanding of cirrus microphysical processes and dehydration in the tropical tropopause layer.

Description: This paper presents the results of a comprehensive model-based analysis of a uranyl [U(VI)] tracer test conducted at the U.S. DOE Hanford 300 Area (300A) IFRC. Despite the highly complex field conditions the numerical three-dimensional multi-component reactive transport model was able to capture most of the spatiotemporal variations of the observed U(VI) concentrations. A multi-model analysis was performed to interrogate the relative importance of various processes and factors for controlling field-scale reactive transport during the uranyl tracer test. The results indicate that multi-rate sorption/desorption, surface complexation reactions, and initial concentrations were the most important processes and factors controlling U(VI) migration. On the other hand, cation exchange reactions, the choice of the surface complexation model, and dual-domain mass transfer processes played less important roles under the prevailing field-test condition. Further analysis of the modeling results demonstrates that these findings are conditioned to the relatively stable groundwater chemistry and the selected length of the field experimental duration (16 days). The model analysis also revealed the crucial role of the intraborehole flow that occurred within the long-screened monitoring wells and thus affected both field measurements and simulated U(VI) concentrations as a combined effect of aquifer heterogeneity and dynamic flow conditions. This study provides the first highly data-constrained uranium transport simulations under highly dynamic flow conditions. It illustrates the value of reactive transport modeling for elucidating the relative importance of individual processes in controlling uranium transport under specific field-scale conditions.

Description: The dynamics of drying processes from porous media are critically influenced by the intensity of an adjacent free flow and by processes at the interface between free flow and the porous medium. In this paper, the influence of hydraulic properties of a porous medium and of the interaction between fluids and porous medium on the drying dynamics during the capillary-flow dominated stage-1 and transition to the diffusion-dominated stage-2 are studied using a coupled free-flow - porous-medium flow model on the REV scale. We present a detailed model concept that considers mass balance equations, an energy balance equation and the coupling to the adjacent free flow. Key microscale processes are identified and incorporated in the macroscale description of the evaporation process. Own experimental results are used to illustrate main features of the modeling framework. We demonstrate that the use of a homogeneous distribution of soil parameters without consideration of pore-scale induced nonlinearities in the numerical simulations results in a rather constant drying rate in stage-1, which was not observed for the high evaporative demand in the experiments. To account for the dependency of the drying rate on the surface moisture content, special conditions based on the work of Haghighi et al. [2013] and Schlünder [1988] are analyzed for their applicability on the REV scale. Typical features of a drying process, such as different stages of the drying rate, could be reproduced.

Description: Making useful predictions in ungauged basins is an incredibly difficult task given the limitations of hydrologic models to represent physical processes appropriately across the heterogeneity within and among different catchments. Here, we introduce a new method for this challenge, Bayes empirical Bayes, that allows for the statistical pooling of information from multiple donor catchments and provides the ability to transfer parametric distributions rather than single parameter sets to the ungauged catchment. Further, the methodology provides an efficient framework with which to formally assess predictive uncertainty at the ungauged catchment. We investigated the utility of the methodology under both synthetic and real data conditions, and with respect to its sensitivity to the number and quality of the donor catchments used. This study highlighted the ability of the hierarchical Bayes empirical Bayes approach to produce expected outcomes in both the synthetic and real data applications. The method was found to be sensitive to the quality (hydrologic similarity) of the donor catchments used. Results were less sensitive to the number of donor catchments, but indicated that predictive uncertainty was best constrained with larger numbers of donor catchments (but still adequate with fewer donors)

Description: Autumn is a season of dynamic change in forest streams of the northeastern USA due to effects of leaf fall on both hydrology and biogeochemistry. Few studies have explored how interactions of biogeochemical transformations, various nitrogen sources, and catchment flowpaths affect stream nitrogen variation during autumn. To provide more information on this critical period, we studied 1) the timing, duration, and magnitude of changes to stream nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and ammonium concentrations; 2) changes in nitrate sources and cycling; and 3) source areas of the landscape that most influence stream nitrogen. We collected samples at higher temporal resolution for a longer duration than typical studies of stream nitrogen during autumn. This sampling scheme encompassed the patterns and extremes that occurred during baseflow and stormflow events of autumn. Baseflow nitrate concentrations decreased by an order of magnitude from 5.4 to 0.7 μmol L -1 during the week when most leaves fell from deciduous trees. Changes to rates of biogeochemical transformations during autumn baseflow explained the low nitrate concentrations; in-stream transformations retained up to 72% of the nitrate that entered a stream reach. A decrease of in-stream nitrification coupled with assimilatory nitrate uptake was a primary factor in the seasonal nitrate decline. The period of low nitrate concentrations ended with a storm event in which stream nitrate concentrations increased by 25 fold. In the ensuing weeks, stormflow nitrate concentrations progressively decreased over closely-spaced, yet similarly sized events. Most stormflow nitrate originated from nitrification in near-stream areas with occasional, large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate, which has rarely been reported for non-snowmelt events. A maximum input of 33% unprocessed atmospheric nitrate to the stream occurred during one event. The large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate show direct and rapid effects on forest streams that may be widespread, although undocumented, throughout nitrogen-polluted temperate forests. In contrast to a week-long nitrate decline during peak autumn litterfall, baseflow DON concentrations increased after leaf fall and remained high for two months. Dissolved organic nitrogen was hydrologically flushed to the stream from riparian soils during stormflow. In contrast to distinct seasonal changes in baseflow nitrate and DON concentrations, ammonium concentrations were typically at or below detection limit, similar to the rest of the year. Our findings reveal couplings among catchment flow paths, nutrient sources and transformations that control seasonal extremes of stream nitrogen in forested landscapes.

Description: During the recent years there has been an increasing interest in multivariate frequency analysis of hydrological variables, e.g. those describing extreme events like rainfall, floods or droughts. The multivariate analysis provides a better understanding of the phenomena under investigation and an additional insight about the interrelationships between the different variables (e.g. peak, volume and duration of the flood), exploiting the complete structure of the problem and making a full use of the available data. However, while the developments on multivariate analysis of hydrological data has produced a large body of literature, a clear assessment of the use of these methods in the design and risk assessment of hydraulic structures is still a matter of debate. In the present work we illustrate a general, structure-based framework for the design and/or risk assessment of hydraulic structures in a bivariate environment; we also compare it to recently proposed methods which are based on the assumption of hydrological design events (as is customary in the univariate context). For illustration purposes, both the structure-based and the design event-based approaches are applied to the design of an idealized structure, thus exploring the differences among the methods as function of the parameters involved. Our work highlights that the return period of structure failure in a multivariate environment strictly depends on the particular structure under design, and in most cases the design of an hydraulic structure cannot be based on a single, hydrological multivariate design event. This acts as a warning for practitioners against the use of design methods based on single hydrological events, as usually done in the context of univariate hydrology, thus neglecting the interplay between the structure and the hydrological loads acting on it.

Description: Proliferation of evapotranspiration (ET) products warrants comparison of these products. The study objective was to assess uncertainty in ET output from four land surface models (LSMs), Noah, Mosaic, VIC, and SAC in NLDAS-2, two remote sensing-based products, MODIS and AVHRR, and GRACE-inferred ET from a water budget with precipitation from PRISM, monitored runoff, and total water storage change (TWSC) from GRACE satellites. The three cornered hat method, which does not require a priori knowledge of the true ET value, was used to estimate ET uncertainties. In addition, TWSC or total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE was compared with water budget estimates of TWSC from a flux-based approach or TWSA from a storage-based approach. The analyses were conducted using data from three regions (humid – arid) in the South Central US as case studies. Uncertainties in ET are lowest in LSM ET (~5 mm/month), moderate in MODIS- or AVHRR-based ET (10 – 15 mm/month), and highest in GRACE-inferred ET (20 – 30 mm/month). There is a tradeoff between spatial resolution and uncertainty, with lower uncertainty in the coarser-resolution LSM ET (~14 km) relative to higher uncertainty in the finer-resolution (~ 1 ‒ 8 km) RS ET. Root-mean-square (RMS) of uncertainties in water budget estimates of TWSC is about half of RMS of uncertainties in GRACE-derived TWSC for each of the regions. Future ET estimation should consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of LSMs and satellite-based products to constrain uncertainties.

Description: It is well documented that deforestation results in an increase in landslide frequency due to the control that forest roots have on slope stability. The loss of forest vegetation leads to a reduction in soil cohesion and a decrease in the shear strength of the soil profile. As a result, the slope becomes more susceptible to landsliding and the return time of landslides decreases. When a landslide removes the soil profile, there may not be adequate time for seedlings to grow and enhance soil stability. In this study, we investigate whether bistable dynamics emerge from the interaction of forest vegetation with the formation and accumulation of colluvial deposits in soil-mantled landscapes. To that end, we develop deterministic and stochastic models of landslide occurrence with a dynamic vegetation component. Results show that bistability exists for the deterministic case for both steep and shallow hollows under event and supply limited conditions. However, for the stochastic case, the randomness of landslide occurrence largely changed the states of the system such that the system only exhibited one stable state, which was the fully vegetated condition. Examining different management practices under stochastic conditions showed that the system eventually recovered; however, management practices influenced the recovery time of the forest. Thus, different management practices could render the land in a state of low vegetation over economically significant time periods.

Description: Seepage flux from ephemeral streams can be an important component of the water balance in arid and semi-arid regions. An emerging technique for quantifying this flux involves the measurement and simulation of a flood wave as it moves along an initially dry channel. This study investigates the usefulness of including surface water and groundwater data to improve model calibration when using this technique. We trialed this approach using a controlled flow event along a 1387 m reach of artificial stream channel. Observations were then simulated using a numerical model that combines the diffusion wave approximation of the Saint-Vénant equations for streamflow routing, with Philips’ infiltration equation and the groundwater flow equation. Model estimates of seepage flux for the upstream segments of the study reach, where streambed hydraulic conductivities were approximately 10 1 m d -1 , were on the order of 10 -4 m 3 d -1 m -2 . In the downstream segments, streambed hydraulic conductivities were generally much lower but highly variable (~10 -3 – 10 -7 m d -1 ). The Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showed that the flood front timing, surface water stage, groundwater heads and the predicted stream flow seepage were most influenced by specific yield. Furthermore, inclusion of groundwater data resulted in a higher estimate of total seepage estimates than if the flood front timing were used alone.

Description: We present a probabilistic sediment cascade model to simulate sediment transfer in a mountain basin (Illgraben, Switzerland) where sediment is produced by hillslope landslides and rockfalls and exported out of the basin by debris flows and floods. The model conceptualizes the fluvial system as a spatially lumped cascade of connected reservoirs representing hillslope and channel storages where sediment goes through cycles of storage and remobilization by surface runoff. The model includes all relevant hydrological processes that lead to runoff formation in an Alpine basin, such as precipitation, snow accumulation, snow melt, evapotranspiration, and soil water storage. Although the processes of sediment transfer and debris flow generation are described in a simplified manner, the model produces complex sediment discharge behavior which is driven by the availability of sediment and antecedent wetness conditions (system memory) as well as the triggering potential (climatic forcing). The observed probability distribution of debris flow volumes and their seasonality in 2000-2009 are reproduced. The stochasticity of hillslope sediment input is important for reproducing realistic sediment storage variability, although many details of the hillslope landslide triggering procedures are filtered out by the sediment transfer system. The model allows us to explicitly quantify the division into transport and supply-limited sediment discharge events. We show that debris flows may be generated for a wide range of rainfall intensities because of variable antecedent basin wetness and snowmelt contribution to runoff, which helps to understand the limitations of methods based on a single rainfall threshold for debris flow initiation in Alpine basins.

Description: [1]  We analyse the stratospheric Kelvin and Rossby-gravity wave packets with periods of a few days in nine high-top (i.e. with stratosphere) models of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These models simulate realistic aspects of these waves, and represent them better than the tropospheric convectively coupled waves analyzed in previous studies. [2]  There is nevertheless a large spread among the models, and those with a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) produce larger amplitude waves than the models without a QBO. For the Rossby-gravity waves this is explained by the fact that models without a QBO never have positive zonal mean zonal winds in the lower stratosphere, a situation that is favorable to the propagation of Rossby-gravity waves. For the Kelvin waves, larger amplitudes in the presence of a QBO is counter intuitive because Kelvin waves are expected to have larger amplitude when the zonal mean zonal wind is negative, and this is always satisfied in models without a QBO. We attribute the larger amplitude to the fact that models tuned to have a QBO require finer vertical resolution in the stratosphere. [3]  We also find that models with large precipitation variability tend to produce larger amplitude waves. However, the effect is not as pronounced as was found in previous studies. In fact, even models with weak precipitation variability still have quite realistic stratospheric waves, indicating either that (i) other sources can be significant or that (ii) the dynamical filtering mitigates the differences in the sources between models.

Description: [1]  A high-resolution global atmospheric dataset (DA126) is used to understand the East Asian summer precipitation variability. It is found that a fine resolution of the DA126 precipitation data is able to reveal the detailed structures of the rainfall variability over East Asia and southern China in comparison with global analysis precipitation datasets such as the CMAP. The first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the DA126 precipitation data over East Asia accurately reflect a decadal shift in rainfall over southern China in the mid-1990s. Furthermore, the first EOF-related precipitation of the DA126 is related to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability (i.e., ENSO) and the second EOF-related precipitation is associated with the Indian Ocean SST variability. Consequently, the tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean SSTs have different associations with the East Asian monsoon precipitation variability. However, it is difficult to find such a relationship in the first two EOFs of the CMAP dataset over East Asia. Using the DA126 precipitation dataset, our further analysis indicates that warming of both the tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean causes an increase in the rainfall anomaly over southern China after the mid-1990s, which results in a decadal shift in the rainfall anomaly after the mid-1990s. In addition, the first EOF-related precipitation is associated with both the Pacific-Japan-like (PJ-like) pattern and the Eurasian-like pattern. In contrast, the second EOF-related precipitation is only associated with the PJ-like wave trains from the western Pacific to East Asia.

Description: [1]  We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in the MBC value does not necessarily match a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modelled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical mid-lower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady-state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady-state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modelled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate.

Description: [1]  In January 2011, the state of the polar vortex in the midlatitudes changed significantly due to a minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. As a result, a bi-directional duct for infrasound propagation developed in the middle atmosphere that persistedfor two weeks. The ducts were due to two zonal wind jets, one between 30-50 km and the other around 70 km altitude. In this paper, using microbarom source modeling, a previously unidentified source region in the eastern Mediterranean is identified,besides the more well known microbarom source regions in the Atlantic Ocean. Infrasound data is then presented in which the above mentioned bi-directional duct is observed in microbarom signals recorded at the IMS station I48TN in Tunisia from the Mediterranean region to the east and from the Atlantic Ocean to the west. While the frequency bands of the two sources overlap, the Mediterranean signal is coherent up to about 0.6 Hz. This observation is consistent with the microbarom source modeling; the discrepancy in the frequency band is related to differences in the ocean wave spectra for the two basins considered. This work demonstrates the sensitivity of infrasound to stratospheric dynamics and illustrates that the classic paradigm of a unidirectional stratospheric duct for infrasound propagation can be broken during a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event.

Description: [1]  Clear experimental evidence of the Twomey effect for shallow trade wind cumuli near Barbados is presented. Effective droplet radius ( r eff ) and cloud optical thickness ( τ ), retrieved from helicopter–borne spectral cloud–reflected radiance measurements, and spectral cloud reflectivity ( γ λ ) are correlated with collocated in situ observations of the number concentration of aerosol particles from the sub–cloud layer ( N ). N denotes the concentration of particles larger than 80nm in diameter and represents particles in the activation mode. In situ cloud microphysical and aerosol parameters were sampled by the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS). Spectral cloud–reflected radiance data were collected by the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation measurements sysTem (SMART-HELIOS). With increasing N a shift in the probability density functions of τ and γ λ towards larger values is observed, while the mean values and observed ranges of retrieved r eff decrease. The relative susceptibilities ( RS ) of r eff , τ and γ λ to N are derived for bins of constant liquid water path ( LWP ). The resulting values of RS are in the range of 0.35 for r eff and τ , and 0.27 for γ λ . These results are close to the maximum susceptibility possible from theory. Overall, the shallow cumuli sampled near Barbados show characteristics of homogeneous, plane–parallel clouds. Comparisons of RS derived from in situ measured r eff and from a microphysical parcel model are in close agreement.

Description: Characterizing the complex geometries and the heterogeneity of the deposits in meandering river systems is a long-standing issue for the 3D modeling of alluvial formations. Such deposits are important sources of accessible groundwater in alluvial aquifers throughout the world and also play a major role as hydrocarbons reservoirs. In this paper we present a method to generate meandering river centerlines that are stochastic, geologically realistic, connected and conditioned to local observations or global geomorphological characteristics. The method is based on fast 1D multiple-point statistics in a transformed curvilinear domain: the succession in directions observed in a real world meandering river (the analog) is considered as statistical model for multiple-point statistics simulation. The integration of local data is accomplished by an inverse procedure ensuring that the channels pass through a given set of locations while conserving the high-order spatial characteristics of an analog. The methodology is applied on seven real world case studies. This work demonstrates the flexibility and the applicability of multiple-point statistics outside the standard paradigm that considers the simulation of a 2D or 3D variable with spatial coordinates.

Description: Large asymmetric bedforms commonly develop in rivers. The turbulence associated with flow separation that develops over their steep lee side is responsible for the form shear stress which can represent a substantial part of total shear stress in rivers. This paper uses the Delft3D modeling system to investigate the effects of bedform geometry and forcing conditions on flow separation length and associated turbulence, and bedform shear stress over angle-of-repose (30° lee side angle) bedforms. The model was validated with laboratory measurements that showed sufficient agreement to be used for a systematic analysis. The influence of flow velocity, bed roughness, relative height (bedform height / water depth) and aspect ratio (bedform height / length) on the variations of the normalized length of the flow separation zone, the extent of the wake region (where the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was more than 70% of the maximum TKE), the average TKE within the wake region and the form shear stress were investigated. Form shear stress was found not to scale with the size of the flow separation zone but to be related to the product of the normalized extent of the wake region (extent of the wake region / extent of water body above the bedform) and the average TKE within the wake region. The results add to understanding of the hydrodynamics of bedforms and may be used for the development of better parameterizations of small-scale processes for application in large-scale studies.

Description: We explore the bankfull width ( W bf ) vs. drainage area ( A da ) relationship across a range of climatic and geologic environments, and ask (1) is the relationship between ln ( W bf ) and ln ( A da ) best described by a linear function and (2) can a reliable relationship be developed for predicting W bf with A da as the only independent variable. The principal dataset for this study was compiled from regional curve studies and other reports that represent 1,018 sites (1 m ≤ W bf ≤ 110 m and 0.50 km 2 ≤ A da ≤ 22,000 km 2 ) in the continental U.S. Two additional datasets were used for validation. After dividing the data into small-, medium-, and large-size basins which, respectfully, correspond to A da 〈 4.95 km 2 , 4.95 km 2 ≤ A da 〈 337 km 2 , and A da ≥ 337 km 2 , regression lines from each dataset were compared using one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). A second ANCOVA was performed to determine if mean annual precipitation ( P ) is an extraneous factor in the W bf vs. A da relationship. The ANCOVA results reveal that using A da alone does not yield a reliable W bf vs. A da relationship that is applicable across a wide range of environments and that P is a significant extraneous factor in the relationship. Considering data for very small basins ( A da ≤ 0.49 km 2 ) and very large basins ( A da ≥ 1.0×10 5 km 2 ) we conclude that a two-segment linear model is the most probable form of the ln ( W bf ) vs. ln ( A da ) relationship. This study provides useful information for building complex multivariate models for predicting W bf .

Description: [1]  The long-term measurements at the Barrow and Atqasuk sites have been processed to develop the climatology of aerosol and cloud properties at interannual, seasonal, and diurnal temporal scales. At the Barrow site, the surface temperature exhibits an increasing trend in both thawed and frozen seasons over the period studied here, about one decade. Corresponding to the warming, the snow melting day arrives earlier and the non-snow-cover duration increases. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) increased during the periods of 2001-2003 and 2005-2009, and decreased during 2003-2005. The liquid water path (LWP), cloud optical depth (COD), and cloud fraction exhibit apparently decreasing trends from 2002 to 2007 and increased significantly after 2008. In the frozen season, the Arctic haze and ice clouds are dominant, while in the thawed season, the oceanic biogenic aerosols and liquid water clouds or mix-phase clouds are dominant. The cloud droplet effective radius during the thawed season is larger than that during the frozen season. The diurnal variations of aerosol and cloud related atmospheric properties are not obvious at these two sites. During the sunshine periods, the aerosol has a cooling effect on the surface through direct aerosol radiative forcing. In the frozen season clouds have a positive impact on the net surface radiation, and the WVP, LWP, and COD have good positive correlations with the surface temperature, suggesting that the cloud–radiation feedback is positive. In the thawed season, clouds have a negative impact on the net surface radiation. The impact of surface temperature on cloud amount is also negative, although the statistics are not as robust in the frozen season.

Description: [1]  Differences between stratospheric water vapor measurements by NOAA frost point hygrometers (FPHs) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are evaluated for the period August 2004 through December 2012 at Boulder, Colorado (40.0°N, 105.2°W), Hilo, Hawaii (19.7°N, 155.1°W), and Lauder, New Zealand (45.0°S, 169.7°E). Two groups of MLS profiles coincident with the FPH soundings at each site are identified using unique sets of temporal and spatial criteria. Before evaluating the differences between coincident FPH and MLS profiles each FPH profile is convolved with the MLS averaging kernels for 8 pressure levels from 100 to 26 hPa (~16 to 25 km) to reduce its vertical resolution to that of the MLS water vapor retrievals. The mean FPH–MLS differences at every pressure level (100 to 26 hPa) are well within the combined measurement uncertainties of the two instruments. However, the mean differences at 100 and 83 hPa are statistically significant and negative, ranging from –0.46 ± 0.22 ppmv (–10.3 ± 4.8%) to –0.10 ± 0.05 ppmv (–2.2 ± 1.2%). Mean differences at the 6 pressure levels from 68 to 26 hPa are on average 0.8% (0.04 ppmv) and only a few are statistically significant. The FPH–MLS differences at each site are examined for temporal trends using weighted linear regression analyses. The vast majority of trends determined here are not statistically significant and most are smaller than the minimum trends detectable in this analysis. Except at 100 and 83 hPa the average agreement between MLS retrievals and FPH measurements of stratospheric water vapor is better than 1%.

Description: [1]  Recent observations reveal a seasonally occurring layer of aerosol located from 0 ∘ to 100 ∘ E, 20 ∘ to 45 ∘ N and extending vertically from about 13 km to 18 km; this has been termed the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) and its existence is closely associated with the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Observational studies argue that the ATAL is a recent phenomenon, as the layer was not observed in the satellite record prior to 1998. This suggests that the ATAL may be of anthropogenic origin associated with increased emissions, most notably sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), from increased industrial activity in China and India starting during the same time. Here we test the hypothesis that SO 2 emitted from Asia led to the formation of the ATAL using an aerosol microphysical model coupled to a global chemistry climate model. This is the first modeling study to specifically examine the ATAL and its possible origin. From our results, we conclude that the ATAL is most likely due to anthropogenic emissions, but its source cannot solely be attributed to emissions from Asia. Specifically, the results indicate that Chinese and Indian emissions contribute ∼ 30% of the sulfate aerosol extinction in the ATAL during volcanically quiescent periods. We also show that even small volcanic eruptions preclude our ability to make any conclusions about the existence of the ATAL before 1998 with observations alone.

Description: [1]  New observations with a 3D Lightning Mapping Array and high speed video are presented and discussed. The first set of observations show that under certain thunderstorm conditions wind turbine blades can produce electric discharges at regular intervals of ~3 seconds in relation to its rotation, over periods of time that range from a few minutes up to hours. This periodic effect has not been observed in static towers indicating that the effect of rotation is playing a critical role. The repeated discharges can occur tens of kilometers away from electrically active thunderstorm areas, and may or may not precede a fully developed upward lightning discharge from the turbine. Similar to rockets used for triggering lightning the fast movement of the blade tip plays an important role on the initiation of the discharge. The movement of the rotor blades allows the tip to ‘runaway’ from the generated corona charge. The second observation is an uncommon upward/downward flash triggered by a wind turbine. In that flash, a negative upward leader was initiated from a wind turbine without preceding lightning activity. The flash produced a negative cloud-to-ground stroke several kilometers from the initiation point. The third observation corresponds to a high speed video record showing simultaneous upward positive leaders from a group of wind turbines triggered by a preceding intra-cloud flash. The fact that multiple leaders develop simultaneously indicates a poor shielding effect among them. All these observations provide some special features on the initiation of lightning by non-static and complex tall structures.

Description: [1]  Tides forced by large-scale weather systems in the tropical troposphere introduce significant longitudinal and local time variability in the upper atmosphere. This paper presents variability of tidal harmonics of the latent heating from 2002–2011 associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the tidal wind response in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) region. Emphasis is on the strong ENSO cycle 2009–2011. Latent tidal heating rates are computed from TRMM satellite precipitation data, with added radiative heating from MERRA reanalysis, as functions of time, latitude, and altitude. The heating rates for the two most affected nonmigrating tides (DE3 and DE2) are examined and compared with MLT tidal wind variability from TIDI/TIMED. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to identify the tidal modes most affected by ENSO. Our results indicate that the tidal response to ENSO is largest during winter for both of the tides, with the largest response occurring in the DE3 tidal winds during the La Niña phase, with an increase of roughly 70% for the winter months of 2010/2011, and negligible response during the El Niño phase. The ENSO effect in the tidal forcing closely resembles the first symmetric and antisymmetric Hough modes of DE3 and DE2, thus being an efficient mechanism to transmit the ENSO signal into the MLT tides.

Description: [1]  An important key for the understanding of the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions is the warming of the tropical lower stratosphere and the concomitant intensification of the polar vortices. Although this mechanism is reproduced by most GCMs today, most models still fail in producing an appropriate winter warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study ensemble sensitivity experiments were carried out with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model to assess the influence of different ozone climatologies on the atmospheric dynamics and in particular on the northern hemispheric winter warming. The ensemble experiments were perturbed by a single Tambora-like eruption. Larger meridional gradients in the lower stratospheric ozone favor the coupling of zonal wind anomalies between the stratosphere and the troposphere after the eruption. The associated sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation patterns are more pronounced and the northern hemispheric winter warming is highly significant. Conversely, weaker meridional ozone gradients lead to a weaker response of the winter warming and the associated patterns. The differences in the number of stratosphere–troposphere coupling events between the ensembles experiments indicate a non-linear response behavior of the dynamics with respect to the ozone and the volcanic forcing.

Description: Recent studies show that multimodel combinations improve hydroclimatic predictions by reducing model uncertainty. Given that climate forecasts are available from multiple climate models, which could be ingested with multiple watershed models, what is the best strategy to reduce the uncertainty in streamflow forecasts? To address this question, we consider three possible strategies: (1) reduce the input uncertainty first by combining climate models and then use the multimodel climate forecasts with multiple watershed models (MM-P) (2) ingest the individual climate forecasts (without multimodel combination) with various watershed models and then combine the streamflow predictions that arise from all possible combinations of climate and watershed models (MM-Q)(3) combine the streamflow forecasts obtained from multiple watershed models based on strategy (1) to develop a single streamflow prediction that reduces uncertainty in both climate forecasts and watershed models (MM-PQ) . For this purpose, we consider synthetic schemes that generate streamflow and climate forecasts, for comparing the performance of three strategies with the true streamflow generated by a given hydrologic model. Results from the synthetic study show that reducing input uncertainty first ( MM-P ) by combining climate forecasts results in reduced error in predicting the true streamflow compared to the error of multimodel streamflow forecasts obtained by combining streamflow forecasts from all-possible combination of individual climate model with various hydrologic models ( MM-Q ). Since the true hydrologic model structure is unknown, it is desirable to consider MM-PQ as an alternate choice that reduces both input uncertainty and hydrologic model uncertainty. Application on two watersheds in NC also indicates that reducing the input uncertainty first is critical before reducing the hydrologic model uncertainty.

Description: The understanding of reasons leading to non-uniqueness of soil erosion susceptibility is still inadequate, yet indispensable for establishing general relations between runoff volume and sediment yield. To obtain relevant insights, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic model using synthetic storms of varying intensity, duration, and lag time between events as representations of different hydrologic response conditions in a zero-order catchment. The design targeted to generate surface flow and ‘perturb’ soil substrate by a first rainfall event, creating a set of initial conditions in terms of flow and deposited sediment prior to the onset of a subsequent rainfall event. Due to the differential effect of (re)detachment and (re)entrainment processes on soil particles of varying sizes, the deposited sediment mass formed shielding layer. One of the essential results is that unless the initial condition of flow and sediment is identical, the same volume of runoff can generate different total sediment yields and their variation can reach up to ~200%. The effect is attributed to two major conflicting effects exerted by the deposited ‘initialization’ (soil antecedent condition) sediment mass: erosion enhancement, because of supply of highly erodible sediment, and erosion impediment, because of constrain on the availability of lighter particles by heavier sediment. Consistently with this inference, long-term simulations with continuous rainfall show that a peculiar feature of sediment yield series is the existence of maximum before the steady-state is reached. The two characteristic time scales, the time to peak and the time to steady-state, separate three characteristic periods that correspond to flow-limited, source-limited, and steady-state regimes. These time scales are log-linearly and negatively related to the spatially averaged Shields parameter: the smaller the rainfall input and the heavier a given particle is, the larger the two scales are. The results provide insights on how the existence of shield operates on erosion processes, possibly implying that accurate short-term predictions of geomorphic events from headwater areas may never become a tractable problem: the latter would require a detailed spatial characterization of particle size distribution prior to precipitation events.

Description: [1]  The skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts is assessed worldwide —grid point by grid point— for the forty-year period 1961-2000, considering the ENSEMBLES multi-model hindcast and applying a tercile-based probabilistic approach in terms of the ROC Skill Score (ROCSS). Although predictability varies with region, season and lead-time, results indicate that 1) significant skill is mainly located in the tropics —20 to 40% of the total land areas,— 2) overall, SON (MAM) is the most (least) skillful season, and 3) the skill weakens (with respect to the one-month lead case) at four-month lead —especially in JJA,— although the ROCSS spatial patterns are broadly preserved —particularly in northern South America and the Malay archipelago.— [2]  The contribution of ENSO events to this forty-year skill is also analyzed, based on the idea that the seasonal predictability may be mainly driven by El Niño and La Niña precipitation teleconnections and, consequently, limited by the ability of the different seasonal forecasting models to accurately reproduce them. Results show that the ROCSS spatial patterns for 1) the full period 1961-2000 and 2) El Niño and La Niña events are highly correlated –over 0.85.— Moreover, the observed teleconnection patterns are properly simulated (predicted) —with spatialcorrelations around 0.8— by most of the models at both one and four months lead-time.

Description: [1]  This study analyzes 15 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data, together with surface observations of thunderstorms and visibility, to study trends and relationships between aerosols and thunderstorms in Southeast China. TRMM data used are from the lightning imaging sensor (LIS) and the precipitation radar (PR). Surface data are human-observed thunderstorm occurrence and visibility for the period of 1990-2012 at 70 plain stations and 4 mountain stations. Thunderstorm and lightning activity, as well as PR echo-top heights, have all increased significantly over the region during the period under study, while regional mean visibility has decreased greatly at the plain stations. The daily rainfall amount during thunderstorm days has increased significantly, but rainfall without thunderstorms has no trend during this period. In comparison, the four mountain weather stations at elevations greater than 1100 m showed little trend in the number of thunderstorm days during the period of 1990-2012. The ratio of the number of thunderstorm days between plain and mountain stations has increased significantly. The distinct trends seen between plain and mountain stations may originate from large differences in aerosol concentration between the plain and mountain regions. The accumulation of pollution aerosols in the plain region likely invigorates thunderstorms, whereas a lesser, or no, impact on intense convection is found over high-altitude regions.

Description: [1]  During volcanic eruptions, empirical relationships are used to estimate mass eruption rate from plume height. Although simple, such relationships can be inaccurate and can underestimate rates for eruptions in windy conditions. 1-D plume models can incorporate atmospheric conditions and are hypothesized to give potentially more accurate estimates. Here, I present a 1-D model for plumes in cross wind and use it to simulate 25 historical eruptions where plume height H obs was well observed, and where mass eruption rate M obs could be calculated from mapped deposit mass and observed duration. The simulations considered wind, temperature, and phase changes of water. Atmospheric conditions were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2.5 degree model. Simulations calculate the minimum, maximum, and average values ( M min , M max , and M avg ) that fit the plume height. Eruption rates were also estimated from the empirical formula M empir  = 140H obs 4.14 ( M empir is in kg s -1 , H obs is in km). For these eruptions, the standard error of the residual in log space is about 0.53 for M avg and 0.50 for M empir . Thus for this dataset, the model is slightly less accurate at predicting M obs than the empirical curve. The inability of this model to improve eruption-rate estimates may lie in the limited accuracy of even well-observed plume heights, inaccurate model formulation, and (or) the fact that most eruptions in the dataset were not highly influenced by wind or moisture. For the low, wind-blown plume of April 14-18, 2010 at Eyjafjallajökull, where an accurate plume-height time series is available, modeled rates do agree better with M obs than M empir .

Description: Aquifer hydraulic properties such as hydraulic conductivity ( K ) are ubiquitously heterogeneous and typically only a statistical characterization can be sought. Additionally statistical anisotropy at typical characterization scales is the rule. Thus, regardless of the processes governing solute transport at the local (pore) scale, transport becomes non-Fickian. Mass-transfer models provide an efficient tool that reproduces observed anomalous transport; in some cases though, these models lack predictability as model parameters cannot readily be connected to the physical properties of aquifers. In this study we focus on a multi-rate mass-transfer model (MRMT), and in particular the apparent capacity coefficient (β), which is a strong indicator of the potential of immobile zones to capture moving solute. We aim to find if the choice of an apparent β can be phenomenologically related to measures of statistical anisotropy. We analyzed an ensemble of random simulations of three-dimensional log-transformed multi-Gaussian permeability fields with stationary anisotropic correlation under convergent flow conditions. It was found that apparent β also displays an anisotropic behavior, physically controlled by the aquifer directional connectivity, which in turn is controlled by the anisotropic correlation model. A high hydraulic connectivity results in large β values. These results provide new insights into the practical use of mass-transfer models for predictive purposes.

Description: In this paper, an operational algorithm is proposed for the mapping of surface moisture over the northern and central parts of Tunisia, in North Africa. A change detection approach is applied, using 160 multi-incidence Envisat ASAR Wide Swath images acquired in the horizontal polarization over a 7-year period. Parameterization of this algorithm is considered for three classes of vegetation cover density (NDVI〈0.25, 0.25〈NDVI〈0.5 and NDVI〉0.5), retrieved from SPOT-VGT decadal images. A relative soil moisture index, ranging between 0 (for the driest surfaces) and 1 (for saturated soils), is proposed for each date, with a resolution of 1 km. The retrieved soil moistures are validated by means of ground measurements based on continuous thetaprobe measurements, as well as low resolution (25 km) ERS and ASCAT soil moisture products from the Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien). A qualitative relationship between spatio-temporal variations of moisture and precipitation is also discussed.

Description: [1]  Stratospheric water vapor has an important effect on Earth's climate. Considering the significance of overshooting deep convection in modulating the water vapor content (WVC) of the lower stratosphere (LS), we use a three-dimensional convective cloud model to simulate the effects of various silver iodide (AgI) seeding scenarios on tropical overshooting deep convection occurred on 30 November 2005 in Darwin, Australia. The primary motivation for this study is to investigate whether the WVC in the LS can be artificially modified by deliberate cloud seeding. It is found that AgI seeding done at the early stages of clouds produces significant effects on cloud microphysical and dynamical properties, and that further affects the WVC in the LS, while seeding at the mature stages of clouds has only a slight impact. The response of stratospheric water vapor to changes in the amount of seeding agent is nonlinear. The seeding with a small (large) amount of AgI increases (decreases) the WVC in the LS, due to enhanced (reduced) production and vertical transport of cloud ice from the troposphere and subsequent sublimation in the stratosphere. The results show that stratospheric water vapor can be artificially altered by deliberate cloud seeding with proper amount of seeding agent. This study also shows an important role of graupel in regulating cloud microphysics and dynamics, and in modifying the WVC in the LS.

Description: [1]  To confirm whether surface winds strengthen above warm waters around oceanic fronts using in-situ data, a field measurement was conducted using both expendable bathythermographs and Global Positioning System sondes released concurrently across the Kuroshio front in the East China Sea in December 2010. In contrast to previous studies mainly based on satellite observations, the finding of the present field survey is the local weakening of surface winds at the northern flank of the Kuroshio front. From the above field observation in conjunction with a regional numerical model experiment, it is suggested that northwesterly winds crossing the Kuroshio front from the cooler side first weaken at the northern flank of the front because of the onset of upward transfer of the “non-slip” condition at the sea surface. Thereafter, as the atmospheric mixed layer with warm and humid air mass develops gradually downwind over the Kuroshio region, the surface winds are gradually accelerated by the momentum mixing with strong winds aloft. The surface winds remain strong over the cool East China Sea shelf, and it is thus considered that the surface winds only weaken at the northern flank of the Kuroshio front. However, numerical modeling indicates that this local weakening of the surface winds occurs as a transient state with a short duration, and such a structure has thus rarely been detected in the long-term averaged wind fields observed by satellites.

Description: [1]  The 222 Radon-tracer method is a powerful tool to estimate local and regional surface emissions of (e.g.) greenhouse gases. In this paper we demonstrate that in practice, the method as it is commonly used, produces inaccurate results in case of non-homogeneously spread emission sources and we propose a different approach to account for this. We have applied the new methodology to ambient observations of CO 2 and 222 Radon to estimate CO 2 surface emissions for the city of Bern, Switzerland. Furthermore, by utilizing combined measurements of CO 2 and δ (O 2 /N 2 ) we obtain valuable information about the spatial and temporal variability of the main emission sources. Mean net CO 2 emissions based on two years of observations are estimated at: (11.2 ± 2.9) kt km -2 a -1 . Oxidative ratios indicate a significant influence from the regional biosphere in summer/spring and fossil fuel combustion processes in winter/autumn. Our data indicate that the emissions from fossil fuels are, to a large degree, related to the combustion of natural gas which is used for heating purposes.

Description: [1]  The daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the 1897 meteorological stations of China over the past 60 years (1951-2010) are analyzed in this study to examine the interdecadal variation of frequency for record-breaking event (RBE) of temperature in the context of global warming. The results indicate that the frequency of record-breaking high temperature in the first decade of the 21th century is the highest in the three decades from the 1980s to the 2000s, implying a distinct warming trend. Meanwhile, frequencies of record-breaking low temperature in the 1990s and the beginning of the 21th century are also significant. In particular, the RBEs of low temperature occurred over most of China in the 1990s but concentrated in northern China during the 2000s. To understand why the record-low temperatures in northern China are repeatedly broken in the 2000s, the related East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) variability is investigated. The EOF analysis of surface air temperature reveals that the northern mode of the EAWM variability, which is highly associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) activities at both interdecadal and interannual timescales, has been intensifying since late 1990s. Corresponding to the intensification of the northern mode of the EAWM variability and the negative phase of AO in the 2000s, the Siberian High and East Asian trough intensify while the polar-front jet stream strengthens and the subtropical westerly jet stream abnormally shifts northward. As a result, anomalously strong cold air masses, originated from Siberia, intrude into East Asia, but are blocked by the enhanced northward subtropical westerly jet and cannot reach low latitudes area. Therefore the extremely strong cold air masses are amassed in mid-high latitudes of East Asia, resulting in RBEs of low temperature in this area.

Description: [1]  The Ice Particle Size Distribution (PSD) is fundamental to the quantitative description of a cloud. It is also crucial in the development of remote sensing retrieval techniques using radar and/or lidar measurements. The PSD allows one to link characteristics of individual particles (area, mass, scattering properties) to characteristics of an ensemble of particles in a sampling volume (e.g. visible extinction ( σ ), Ice Water Content (IWC), radar reflectivity (Z)). The aim of this study is to describe a normalisation technique to represent the PSD. We update an earlier study by including recent in-situ measurements covering a large variety of ice clouds spanning temperatures ranging between -80 °C and 0 °C. This new data set also includes direct measurements of IWC. We demonstrate that is possible to scale the PSD in size space by the volume weighted diameter D m and in the concentration space by the intercept parameter and obtain the intrinsic shape of the PSD. Therefore, by combining , D m and a modified gamma function representing the normalised PSD shape, we are able to approximate key cloud variables (such as IWC) as well as cloud properties which can be remotely observed (such as Z) with an absolute mean relative error smaller than 20%. The underlying idea is to be able to retrieve the PSD using two independent measurements. We also propose parameterizations for ice cloud key parameters derived from the normalised PSD. We also investigate the effects of uncertainty present in the ice crystal mass-size relationships on the parameterizations and the normalised PSD approach.

Description: [1]  The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO). This reanalysis is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model radiatively coupled with GOCART aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from the MODIS sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. In October over the period 2002-2009, MERRAero showed that AOT was lower over the east of the Ganges basin than over the north-west of the Ganges basin: this was despite the fact that the east of the Ganges basin should have produced higher anthropogenic aerosol emissions because of higher population density, increased industrial output and transportation. This is evidence that higher aerosol emissions do not always correspond to higher AOT over the areas where the effects of meteorological factors on AOT dominate those of aerosol emissions. MODIS AOT assimilation was essential for correcting modeled AOT mainly over the north-west of the Ganges basin, where AOT increments were maximal. Over the east of the Ganges basin and north-west BoB, AOT increments were low and MODIS AOT assimilation did not contribute significantly to modeled AOT. Our analysis showed that increasing AOT trends over north-west BoB (exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin) were reproduced by GEOS-5, not because of MODIS AOT assimilation, but mainly because of the model capability of reproducing meteorological factors contributing to AOT trends. Moreover, vertically integrated aerosol mass flux was sensitive to wind convergence causing aerosol accumulation over north-west BoB.

Description: [1]  Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index ( VHI ) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias ( B ) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias ( QB ) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.

Description: This paper presents the results of a data based comparative study of several hundred catchments across continental United States belonging to the MOPEX dataset to systematically explore the connection between the flood frequency curve and mean annual water balance. Mean annual water balance is expressed in terms of two similarity measures: (i) the climatic aridity index, AI , which is a measure of the competition between energy and water availability; and (ii) the baseflow index, BFI , which is a measure of total runoff partitioning into surface and subsurface components at the annual time scale. The data analyses showed that the aridity index, AI , has a first order control on the shape of the flood frequency curve (also known as the growth curve), as expressed in terms of both the mean and coefficient of variation ( C v ) of the annual maximum floods, once normalized by catchment size (i.e., specific flood discharge) While the mean annual (specific) flood discharge decreases with increasing aridity, C v increases with increasing aridity. On the other hand, the BFI was found to be a second order control on the flood frequency curve. Higher BFI , meaning higher contributions of subsurface flow to total streamflow, leads to a decrease of the mean annual (specific) flood discharge, and vice versa. The statistically significant relationship between AI and the flood frequency curve and the consistent shift of the growth curves with AI support the use of AI as a similarity measure for regionalization of flood frequency.

Description: The performance of glacio-hydrological models which simulate catchment response to climate variability depends to a large degree on the data used to force the models. The forcing data become increasingly important in high elevation, glacierised catchments where the interplay between extreme topography, climate and the cryosphere is complex. It is challenging to generate a reliable forcing dataset that captures this spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, we analyze the results of a one year field campaign focusing on air temperature and precipitation observations in the Langtang Valley in the Nepalese Himalayas. We use the observed time series to characterize both temperature lapse rates (LRs) and precipitation gradients (PGs). We study their spatial and temporal variability, and we attempt to identify possible controlling factors. We show that very clear LRs exist in the valley and that there are strong seasonal differences related to the water vapor content in the atmosphere. Results also show that the LRs are generally shallower than the commonly used environmental lapse rates. The analysis of the precipitation observations reveal that there is great variability in precipitation over short horizontal distances. A uniform valley wide PG cannot be established and several scale-dependent mechanisms may explain our observations. We complete our analysis by showing the impact of the observed LRs and PGs on the outputs of the TOPKAPI-ETH glacio-hydrological model. We conclude that LRs and PGs have a very large impact on the water balance composition and that short-term monitoring campaigns have the potential to improve model quality considerably.

Description: Conventional global climate models (GCMs) often consider radiation interactions only with small-particle/suspended cloud mass, ignoring large-particle/falling and convective core cloud mass. We characterize the radiation and atmospheric circulation impacts of frozen precipitating hydrometeors (i.e., snow), using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)-coupled GCM, by conducting sensitivity experiments that turn off the radiation interaction with snow. The changes associated with the exclusion of precipitating hydrometeors exhibit a number differences consistent with biases in CMIP3 and CMIP5, including more outgoing longwave (LW) flux at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and downward shortwave (SW) flux at the surface in the heavily precipitating regions. Neglecting the radiation interaction of snow increases the net radiative cooling near the cloud top with the resulting increased instability triggering more convection in the heavily precipitating regions of the tropics. In addition, the increased differential vertical heating leads to a weakening of the low-level mean flow and an apparent low-level eastward advection from the warm pool resulting in moisture convergence south of the ITCZ and north of the SPCZ. This westerly bias, with effective warm and moist air transport, might be a contributing factor in the model's northeastward overextension of the SPCZ and the concomitant changes in sea surface temperatures, upward motion, and precipitation. Broader dynamical impacts include a stronger local meridional overturning circulation over the mid- and east Pacific, and commensurate changes in low- and upper-level winds, large-scale ascending motion, with a notable similarity to the systematic bias in this region in CMIP5 upper-level zonal winds.

Description: The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is the next-generation polar-orbiting operational environmental sensor with a capability for global aerosol observations. The VIIRS aerosol Environmental Data Record (EDR) is expected to continue the decade-long successful multi-spectral aerosol retrieval from the NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for scientific research and applications. Since the launch of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP), the VIIRS aerosol Calibration/Validation team has been continuously monitoring, evaluating and improving the performance of VIIRS aerosol retrievals. In this study, the VIIRS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 550 nm EDR at current Provisional maturity level is evaluated by comparing it with MODIS retrievals and measurements from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN). The VIIRS global mean AOT at 550 nm differs from that of MODIS by approximately -0.01 over ocean and 0.03 over land (0.00 and -0.01 for the collocated retrievals), but shows larger regional biases. Global validation with AERONET and with MAN measurements shows biases of 0.01 over ocean and -0.01 over land, with about 64% and 71% of retrievals falling within the expected uncertainty range established by MODIS over ocean (±(0.03 + 0.05AOT)) and over land (±(0.05 + 0.15AOT)), respectively. The VIIRS retrievals over land exhibit slight overestimation over vegetated surfaces and underestimation over soil-dominated surfaces. These results show that the VIIRS AOT at 550 nm product provides a solid global dataset for quantitative scientific investigations and environmental monitoring.

Description: Many physically-based hydrological/hydrogeological models used for predicting groundwater seepage areas, including topography-based index models such as TOPMODEL, rely on the Dupuit assumption. To ensure the sound use of these simplified models, knowledge of the conditions under which they provide a reasonable approximation is critical. In this study, a Dupuit solution for the seepage length in hillslope cross-sections is tested against a full-depth solution of saturated groundwater flow. In homogeneous hillslopes with horizontal impervious base and constant-slope topography, the comparison reveals that the validity of the Dupuit solution depends not only on the ratio of depth to hillslope length d/L (as might be expected), but also on the ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge K/R and on the topographic slope s . The validity of the Dupuit solution is shown to be in fact a unique function of another ratio, the ratio of depth to seepage length d/L S . For d/L S 〈 0.2, the relative difference between the two solutions is quite small (〈 14% for the wide range of parameter values tested), whereas for d/L S 〉 0.2, it increases dramatically. In practice, this criterion can be used to test the validity of Dupuit solutions. When d/L S increases beyond that cut-off, the ratio of seepage length to hillslope length L S /L given by the full-depth solution tends towards a non-zero asymptotic value. This asymptotic value is shown to be controlled by (and in many cases equal to) the parameter R/sK . Generalization of the findings to cases featuring heterogeneity, non-horizontal impervious base and variable-slope topography is discussed.

Description: Isothermal compositional flow models require coupling transient compressible flows and advective transport systems of various chemical species in subsurface porous media. Building such numerical models is quite challenging and may be subject to many sources of uncertainties because of possible incomplete representation of some geological parameters that characterize the system's processes. Advanced data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), can be used to calibrate these models by incorporating available data. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating reservoir permeability using information about phase pressure as well as the chemical properties of fluid components. We carry out state-parameter estimation experiments using joint and dual updating schemes in the context of the EnKF with a two-dimensional single-phase compositional flow model (CFM). Quantitative and statistical analyses are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the assimilation schemes. Our results indicate that including chemical composition data significantly enhances the accuracy of the permeability estimates. In addition, composition data provide more information to estimate system states and parameters than do standard pressure data. The dual state-parameter estimation scheme provides about 10% more accurate permeability estimates on average than the joint scheme when implemented with the same ensemble members, at the cost of twice more forward model integrations. At similar computational cost, the dual approach becomes only beneficial after using large enough ensembles.

Description: Groundwater-fed irrigation has been shown to deplete groundwater storage, decrease surface water runoff and increase evapotranspiration. Here we simulate soil moisture dependent groundwater-fed irrigation with an integrated hydrologic model. This allows for direct consideration of feedbacks between irrigation demand and groundwater depth. Special attention is paid to system dynamics in order to characterized spatial variability in irrigation demand and response to increased irrigation stress. A total of 80 years of simulation are completed for the Little Washita Basin in Southwestern Oklahoma, USA spanning a range of agricultural development scenarios and management practices. Results show regionally aggregated irrigation impacts consistent with other studies. However, here a spectral analysis reveals that groundwater-fed irrigation is also shown to amplify the annual streamflow cycle while dampening longer-term cyclical behavior with increased irrigation during climatological dry periods. Feedbacks between the managed and natural system are clearly observed with respect to both irrigation demand and utilization when water table depths are within a critical range. Although the model domain is heterogeneous with respect to both surface and subsurface parameters, relationships between irrigation demand, water table depth and irrigation utilization are consistent across space and between scenarios. Still, significant local heterogeneities are observed both with respect to transient behavior and response to stress. Spatial analysis of transient behavior shows that farms with groundwater depths within a critical depth range are most sensitive to management changes. Differences in behavior highlight the importance of groundwater's role in system dynamics in addition to water availability.

Description: Including positive feedbacks in hydrological models has recently been shown to result in complex behavior with multiple steady states. When a large disturbance, say a major drought, is simulated within such models the hydrology changes. Once the disturbance ends the hydrology does not return to that prior to the disturbance, but rather, persists within an alternate state. These multiple steady states (henceforth attractors ) exist for a single model parameterization and cause the system to have a finite resilience to such transient disturbances. A limitation of past hydrological resilience studies is that multiple attractors have been identified using mean annual or mean monthly forcing. Considering that most hydrological fluxes are subject to significant forcing stochasticity and do not operate at such large time scales, it remains an open question whether multiple hydrological attractors can exist when a catchment is subject to stochastic daily forcing. This question is the focus of this paper and it needs to be addressed prior to searching for multiple hydrological attractors in the field. To investigate this, a previously developed semi-distributed hill-slope ecohydrological model was adopted which exhibited multiple steady states under average monthly climate forcing. In this paper, the ecohydrological model was used to explore if feedbacks between the vegetation and a saline water table result in two attractors existing under daily stochastic forcing. The attractors and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified using a new limit cycle continuation technique that up-scaled climate forcing from daily to monthly (model and limit cycle code is freely available). The method was used to determine the values of saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity at which multiple attractors exist. These estimates were then assessed against time-integration estimates, which they agreed with. Overall, multiple attractors where found to exist under stochastic daily forcing. However, changing the climate forcing from monthly to daily did significantly reduce the parameter range over which two attractors existed. This suggests fewer catchments may have multiple attractors than previously considered.

Description: The companion paper showed that multiple steady state groundwater levels can exist within a hill-slope Boussinesq-vegetation model under daily stochastic forcing. Using a numerical limit-cycle continuation algorithm, the steady states (henceforth attractors ) and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified at a range of saturated lateral conductivity values, . This paper investigates if stochastic daily forcing can switch the catchment between both of the attractors. That is, an attractor may exist under average forcing conditions but can stochastic forcing switch the catchment into and out of each of the attractor basins?; i.e. making the attractor emerge . This was undertaken using the model of the companion paper and by completing daily time-integration simulations at six values of the saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity, ; three having two attractors and three having only a deep water table attractor. By graphically analyzing the simulations, and comparing against simulations from a model modified to have only one attractor, multiple attractors were found to emerge under stochastic daily forcing. However, the emergence of attractors was significantly more subtle and complex than that suggested by the companion paper. That is, an attractor may exist but never emerge; both attractors may exist and both may emerge but identifying the switching between attractors was often ambiguous; and only one attractor may exist and but a second temporary attractor may exist and emerge during periods of high precipitation. This subtle and complex emergence of attractors was explained using continuation analysis of the climate forcing rate, and not a model parameter such as . It showed that the temporary attractor existed over a large range of values and this suggests that more catchments may have multiple attractors than suggested by the companion paper. By combining this continuation analysis with the time-integration simulations, hydrological signatures indicative of a switch of multiple attractors were proposed. These signatures may provide a means for identifying actual catchments that have switched between multiple attractors.

Description: ABSTRACT A large-time analytical solution is proposed for the spatial variance and coefficient of variation of the depth-averaged concentration due to instantaneous, cross-sectionally uniform solute sources in pseudo-rectangular open channel flows. The mathematical approach is based on the use of the Green functions and on the Fourier decomposition of the depth-averaged velocities, coupled with the method of the images. The variance spatial trend is characterized by a minimum at the center of the mass and two mobile, decaying symmetrical peaks which, at very large times, are located at the inflexion points of the average Gaussian distribution. The coefficient of variation, which provides an estimate of the expected percentage deviation of the depth-averaged point concentrations about the section-average, exhibits a minimum at the center which decays like t -1 and only depends on the river diffusive time-scale. The defect of cross-sectional mixing quickly increases with the distance from the center, and almost linearly at large times. Accurate numerical Lagrangian simulations were performed to validate the analytical results in pre-asymptotic and asymptotic conditions, referring to a particularly representative sample case for which cross-sectional depth and velocity measurements were known from a field survey. In addition, in order to discuss the practical usefulness of computing large-time concentration spatial moments in river flows, and resorting to directly measured input data, the order of magnitude of section-averaged concentrations and corresponding coefficients of variation was estimated in field conditions and for hypothetical contamination scenarios, considering a unit normalized mass impulsively injected across the transverse section of 81 U.S. rivers.

Description: This study is based on the analysis of Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) data measured over Hyderabad, India during the years 2006-2008. Tropospheric profiles of O 3 show clear seasonality with high and low values during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, respectively. Analysis of back trajectory and fire count data indicates major roles for long-range transport and biomass burning in the seasonal variation of O 3 . Typically, lower levels of O 3 in the monsoon season were due to the flow of marine air and negligible regional biomass burning, while higher levels in other seasons were due to transport of continental air. In the upper troposphere, relatively low levels of O 3 during the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons were associated with deep convection. In the free troposphere, levels of O 3 also show year-to-year variability as the values in the pre-monsoon of 2006 were higher by about 30 ppbv compared to 2008. The year-to-year variations were mainly due to transition from El Niño (2006) to La Niña (2008). The higher and lower levels of O 3 were associated with strong and weak wind shears, respectively. Typically, vertical variations of O 3 were anti-correlated with the lapse rate profile. The lower O 3 levels were observed in the stable layers, but higher values in the mid-troposphere were caused by long-range transport. In the PBL region, the mixing ratio of O 3 shows strong dependencies on meteorological parameters. The Chemistry Climate Model (CCM2) reasonably reproduced the observed profiles of O 3 except for the pre-monsoon season.

Description: Radiative forcing by aerosols and tropospheric ozone could play a significant role in recent Arctic warming. These species are in general poorly accounted for in climate models. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to construct a 3-D representation of Arctic aerosols and ozone that is consistent with observations and can be used in climate simulations. We focus on 2008, when extensive observations were made from different platforms as part of the International Polar Year. Comparison to aircraft (ARCTAS), surface, and ship cruise (ICEALOT, ASCOS) observations suggests that GEOS-Chem provides in general a successful year-round simulation of Arctic black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sulfate, and dust aerosol. BC has major fuel combustion and boreal fire sources, OC is mainly from fires, sulfate has a mix of anthropogenic and natural sources, and dust is mostly from the Sahara. The model is successful in simulating aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations from AERONET stations in the Arctic; the sharp drop from spring to summer appears driven in part by the smaller size of sulfate aerosol in summer. The anthropogenic contribution to Arctic AOD is a factor of 4 larger in spring than summer and is mainly sulfate. Simulation of absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) indicates that non-BC aerosol (OC and dust) contributed 24% of Arctic AAOD at 550 nm and 37% of absorbing mass deposited to the snow pack in 2008. Open fires contributed half of AAOD at 550 nm and half of deposition to the snowpack.

Description: [1]  In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal changes in precipitation over the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain, for present (1986–2005) and future (2031–2050) periods using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). Future meteorology produced by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 coupled with the Atmosphere–Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) following global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) was used as meteorological boundary conditions for the RegCM4. Six sub-regions (South Korea, North China, South China, Japan, Mongolia, and India) in the CORDEX East Asia domain were considered for analysis. The RegCM4 simulated spatial distributions of precipitation over East Asia with a correlation coefficient of 0.7 against CRU data. The simulation skills of its temporal variability varied based on geographical regions and seasons, showing relatively poorer performance (under-estimation in rainfall amount) in summer than in winter, in general. The future climate simulations by the RegCM4 presented that the East Asian continental regions will be warmer and more humid, leading to increased precipitation amounts, especially in the summer. The summer precipitation amount was projected to increase by about 5%, on average, over the East Asian domain, 5 − 15% in most sub-regions, and even higher (44% and 24%) in the South Korean region for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also expected that heavy rainfall (〉 50 mm/day) events may occur more frequently in the future possibly owing to meteorological changes that are favorable to convective heavy precipitation.

Description: Four years of CloudSat data have been analyzed over a region of the East Atlantic Ocean in order to examine the influence of aerosols on deep convection. The satellite data were combined with information about aerosols taken from the Global and Regional Earth-System Monitoring Using Satellite and in-situ Data (GEMS) model. Only those profiles fitting the definition of deep convective clouds were analyzed. Overall, the cloud center of gravity, cloud top, and rain top were all found to increase with increased aerosol loading. These effects were largely independent of the environment, and the differences between the cleanest and most polluted clouds sampled were found to be statistically significant. When examining an even smaller subset of DCCs likely to be part of the convective core, similar trends were seen. These observations suggest that convective invigoration occurs with increased aerosol loading, leading to deeper, stronger storms in polluted environments.

Description: The ratio of liquid water to ice in a cloud, largely controlled by the presence of ice nuclei and cloud temperature, alters cloud radiative effects. This study quantitatively examines how the liquid fraction of clouds influences various climate feedbacks using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Climate feedback parameters were calculated using equilibrated temperature changes in response to increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in CAM Version 3.0 with a slab ocean model. Two sets of model experiments are designed such that cloud liquid fraction linearly decreases with a decrease in temperature down to −20°C (Experiment “C20”) and −40°C (Experiment “C40”). Thus, at the same sub-zero temperature, C20 yields fewer liquid droplets (and more ice crystals) than C40. Comparison of the results of experiments C20 and C40 reveals that experiment C20 is characterized by stronger cloud and temperature feedbacks in the tropics (30°N–30°S) (by 0.25 and –0.28 W m −2  K −1 , respectively), but weaker cloud, temperature and albedo feedbacks (by –0.20, 0.11, and –0.07 W m −2  K −1 ) in the extratropics. Compensation of these climate feedback changes leads to a net climate feedback change of ~7.28% of that of C40 in the model. These results suggest that adjustment of the cloud phase function affects all types of feedbacks (with the smallest effect on water vapor feedback). Although the net change in total climate feedback is small due to the cancellation of positive and negative individual feedback changes, some of the individual changes are relatively large. This illustrates the importance of the influence of cloud phase partitioning for all major climate feedbacks, and by extension, for future climate change predictions.

Description: Diurnal and seasonal controls on water vapor fluxes were investigated in a subtropical mangrove forest in Everglades National Park, Florida. Energy partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes was highly variable during the 2004-2005 study period. During the dry season, the mangrove forest behaved akin to a semiarid ecosystem as most of the available energy was partitioned into sensible heat, which gave Bowen ratio values exceeding 1.0 and minimum latent heat fluxes of 5 MJ day -1 . In contrast, during the wet season the mangrove forest acted as a well-watered, broadleaved deciduous forest, with Bowen ratio values of 0.25 and latent heat fluxes reaching 18 MJ day -1 . During the dry season, high salinity levels (〉 30 parts per thousand, ppt) caused evapotranspiration to decline and correspondingly resulted in reduced canopy conductance. From multiple linear regression, daily average canopy conductance to water vapor declined with increasing salinity, vapor pressure deficit, and daily sums of solar irradiance but increased with air temperature and friction velocity. Using these relationships, appropriately modified Penman-Monteith and Priestley-Taylor models reliably reproduced seasonal trends in daily evapotranspiration. Such numerical models, using site-specific parameters, are crucial for constructing seasonal water budgets, constraining hydrological models, and driving regional climate models over mangrove forests.

Description: Two major causes of salt marsh loss are vertical drowning, when sediment accumulation on the platform cannot keep vertical pace with sea level rise, and horizontal retreat, associated with wave-induced marsh boundary erosion. Despite these processes having been extensively documented and modeled, is unclear which loss modality dominates given a set of environmental parameters. A three-point dynamic model was developed to predict marsh loss as a function of sea level rise, allochthonous sediment supply, wind regime, tidal range, and marsh bank and mudflat erodability. Marsh horizontal and vertical evolution was found to respond in opposing ways to wave induced erosion processes. Marsh horizontal retreat was triggered by large mudflats, strong winds, high erodability of marsh bank and mudflat, whereas the opposite conditions acted to reduce the sediment supply to the marsh platform, promoting marsh loss to drowning. With low and moderate rates of sea level rise (~ 5 mm/yr), retreat was found to be a more likely marsh loss modality than drowning. However, conditions associated with marsh retreat also increase the system resilience by transferring sediment on the marsh platform and preventing drowning. Our results suggest the use of a modular strategy for short-term marsh management: selectively protect extensive salt marsh regions by maintaining healthy vegetation on the platform, while allowing other areas to retreat, leveraging the natural resilience embedded in the lateral loss of marsh extent.

Description: Observational data and the Princeton Urban Canopy Model, with its detailed representation of urban heterogeneity and hydrological processes, are combined to study evaporation and turbulent water vapor transport over urban areas. The analyses focus on periods before and after precipitation events, at two sites in the Northeastern United States. Our results indicate that while evaporation from concrete pavements, building rooftops and asphalt surfaces is discontinuous and intermittent, overall these surfaces accounted for nearly 18% of total latent heat fluxes (LE) during a relatively wet 10-day period. More importantly, these evaporative fluxes have a significant impact on the urban surface energy balance, particularly during the 48 hours following a rain event when impervious evaporation is the highest. Thus, their accurate representation in urban models is critical. Impervious evaporation after rainfall is also shown to correlate the sources of heat and water at the earth surface, resulting in a conditional scalar transport similarity over urban terrain following rain events.

Description: The spatial and temporal dynamics of seasonal snow covers play a critical role for many hydrological, ecological, and climatic processes. This paper presents a new, innovative approach to continuously monitor these dynamics using numerous low-cost, standalone snow monitoring stations (SnoMoS). These stations provide snow and related meteorological data with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Data collected by SnoMoS include: snow depth, surface temperature, air temperature and humidity, total precipitation, global radiation, wind speed, and barometric pressure. A total of 99 sensors were placed over the winters 2010/11 and 2011/12 at multiple locations within three 40 - 180 km² basins in the Black Forest region of Southern Germany. The locations were chosen to cover a wide range of slopes, elevations, and expositions in a stratified sampling design. Furthermore, “paired stations” located in close proximity to each other, one in the open and one underneath various forest canopies, were set up to investigate the influence of vegetation on snow dynamics. The results showed that considerable differences in snow depth and, therefore, snow water equivalent (SWE) are present within the study area despite its moderate temperatures and medium elevation range (400 - 1500 m). The relative impact of topographical factors like elevation, aspect, and of different types of forest vegetation were quantified continuously and were found to change considerably over the winter period. The recorded differences in SWE and snow cover duration were large enough that they should be considered in hydrologic and climate models.

Description: Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface–subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multi-criteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km 2 sub-catchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water–groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin-up time from a series of spin-up functions revealed that 20 (or 21) years of simulation were sufficient for the catchment to equilibrate according to at least one criterion at the 0.1% (0.01%) threshold level. Amongst a range of convergence metrics examined, percentage changes in monthly values of groundwater and unsaturated zone storages produced a slow system convergence to equilibrium, whereas criteria based on ground temperature allowed a more rapid spin-up. Slow convergence of unsaturated and saturated zone storages is a result of the dynamic adjustment of the water table in response to a physically arbitrary or inconsistent initialization of a spatially uniform water table. Achieving equilibrium in subsurface storage ensured equilibrium across a spectrum of other variables, hence providing a good measure of system-wide equilibrium. Overall, results highlight the importance of correctly identifying the key variable affecting model equilibrium and also the need to use a multi-criteria approach to achieve a rapid and stable model spin-up.

Description: In this paper, we perform a detailed regional analysis of the link between meteorological drought indices and streamflow for a comprehensive Austrian dataset of 47 small to medium-size catchments in humid-temperate climate. Four drought indices considering different components of the catchment water balance are tested. We assess the quality of the link using rank correlation analysis, and the probability of detecting low flow events by hit-scores. Overall, correlations range between 0.4 and 0.8 and differ significantly between regions. A stratified analysis shows that the link is much stronger (i) for summer low flows and droughts than for anomalies in general, and (ii) for more humid than more arid conditions. Under more humid conditions streamflow droughts of small to medium-size catchments are to a large extent generated by climate forcing and therefore well represented by a simple meteorological index. Under increasingly dry conditions, the climate signal gets less predictive and storage properties of the underground become more important. A simple soil moisture accounting scheme (such as those of the Palmer index) can considerably improve the correlations. Overall, we conclude there is a significant link between meteorological drought and streamflow drought, except for catchments where groundwater storage and snow processes are important. The results are encouraging and provide a wealth of information which can profitably be used to set up statistical prediction models to estimate low flows from meteorological time series.

Description: Water resources in the western United States are contingent on interannual variations in snowpack. Interannual snowpack variability has been attributed to large-scale climate patterns including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), however the contribution of snowfall frequency and extreme snowfall events to this variability are less well quantified. Long term records from Snowpack Telemetry and Cooperative Observer Program stations in the eleven western states were used to investigate these relationships by considering the number of snowfall days and snowfall water equivalent (SFE) of extreme snowfall events. The top decile of snowfall events contributed 20-38% of annual SFE, depending on the region. An average of 65% and 69% of the interannual variability in annual SFE was explained by snowfall days and SFE of top decile snowfall events, respectively, with extreme events being a more significant predictor at most stations. The latitudinal dipole in SFE during ENSO phases results from changes in snowfall frequency and extreme events. In the Pacific Northwest, above normal SFE during La Niña winters was a product of both larger contributions from extremes and more snowfall days, while below normal SFE during El Niño winters was primarily associated with a substantial reduction in extremes. Conversely, annual SFE during ENSO phases in the mountains of Arizona was more closely linked to fluctuations in snowfall days than extremes. Results indicate the importance of extreme snowfall events in shaping interannual variability in water resources and suggest that improved predictive ability may inform better water resource management now and in the coming decades.

Description: The relationship between low-level cloud optical depth and atmospheric and surface air temperature is examined in the control climate of thirteen climate models to determine if cloud optical depth-temperature relationships found in observations are replicated in climate models, and if climate model behavior found in control climate simulations provides information about the optical depth feedback in climate warming simulations forced by increasing carbon dioxide. A positive relationship between cloud optical depth and cloud temperature exists in all models for low clouds with relatively cold temperatures at middle and high latitudes, whereas a negative relationship exists for warmer low clouds in the tropics and subtropics. This relationship is qualitatively similar to that in an earlier analysis of satellite observations, although modeled regression slopes tend to be too positive and their inter-model spread is large. In the models, the cold cloud response comes from increases in cloud water content with increasing temperature, while the warm cloud response comes from decreases in physical thickness with increasing cloud temperature. The inter-model and inter-regional spread of low-cloud optical depth feedback in climate warming simulations is well predicted by the corresponding spread in the relationships between optical depth and temperature for the current climate, suggesting that this aspect of cloud feedback may be constrained by observations. Because models have a positive bias relative to observations in the optical depth-temperature relationship, shortwave cloud feedbacks for climate changes may be more positive than climate models currently simulate.

Description: Seasonal characteristics of aerosol optical properties (AOP) in SKYNET Hefei site are studied using a sky-radiometer from March 2007 to May 2013. The aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE), volume size distributions, single scattering albedo (SSA), refractive index and asymmetry factor (ASY) of aerosols are simultaneously retrieved using the SKYRAD.pack version 4.2 software. During the study period, the AOD varied seasonally, with the maximum value of 1.02 ± 0.42 at 500 nm occurring in the summer and the highest AOD (1.13 ± 0.42) occurred in June due to stagnant climate conditions and accumulation of polluted aerosols before the East Asian summer monsoon. The variation in AE showed a different pattern, with the minimum (0.97 ± 0.28) and maximum values (1.30 ± 0.22) occurring during the spring and fall seasons, respectively. The relatively low value of AE in spring is related to the emission of Asian dust events. The aerosol volume size distributions can be expressed by the tri-modal patterns for each season, consisting of a fine mode with R 〈 0.6um, a coarse mode with R 〉 2.5um and a middle mode located between them. The real part of the refractive index increased with wavelength (380-870 nm) while the imaginary part of the refractive index decreased for all seasons except for the summer. The seasonal mean values of SSA were 0.97 ± 0.02(summer), 0.95 ± 0.03(spring), 0.93 ± 0.04(autumn), and 0.91 ± 0.04(winter) at 380 nm indicating more absorbing aerosol in the autumn and winter months. Furthermore, aerosol properties were greatly modified by condensation growth as evidenced by the positive dependencies of AOD, SSA and ASY on relative humidity.

Description: For quantification and prediction of global warming due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, high resolution determination of carbon cycle reservoir size and rates of exchange is vital. Isotope ratio measurements of 13 C and 18 O in CO 2 have proven their utility in resolving the carbon cycle. Here we report a long term record of triple oxygen isotopic composition of tropospheric CO 2 . A presence of a steady state stratospheric component (Δ 17 O = ln[(δ 17 O + 1) – 0.522 ln(δ 18 O + 1)] = 0.08 ± 0.04 ‰) is observed in tropospheric CO 2 after modeling via a long-term spline fit of the record, adding an additional technique for quantification of CO 2 fluxes. The δ 18 O of CO 2 (measured as O 2 for oxygen triple-isotopic composition) from the present study is compared to the measurements of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography (SIO) CO 2 network (measured as CO 2 for δ 13 C and δ 18 O) and found to be comparable. We note that the triple oxygen isotopic signal (Δ 17 O) significantly decreased to 0.02 ± 0.02 ‰ from the steady state value of 0.08 ± 0.04 ‰ during the 1997-1999 time period. The possible causes for this depletion are evaluated and discussed. An enhanced role of global primary productivity, facilitating water-CO 2 isotope exchange is possible, and future measurements and modeling strategies may develop this further.

Description: The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MLRY) suffered a once-in-a-fifty-year drought during the spring of 2011. The abnormality of the atmospheric circulation in the spring is characterized by the deeper-than-normal trough over East Asia and the northwest Pacific while stronger-than-normal high pressure system over the west, which results in a stronger-than-normal meridional circulation. Meanwhile, the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker than normal and retreats to the east, so the spring monsoonal moist airs from lower latitudes are relatively weak. The anomalous northerly wind in higher latitudes suppresses the northward motion of the moist airs, and brings dry airs to the MLRY. The northerly wind also suppresses the northward motion of warm airs, and brings cold airs to the MLRY. So finally the air over the MLRY is drier, but colder, than normal, which is different from many other droughts. The coldness of the air plays a negative role to the drought. Results from comparing the C q and C T , the measures of the changes in moisture and temperature between this spring and the normal spring defined based on the tight precipitation-relative humidity relation, indicate that the dryness of the air is much stronger than the coldness, and the air over the MLRY thus maintains a lower-than-normal relative humidity. The animation of daily C q and C T shows that dry and cold airs move from the northwest to the MLRY in a manner of low frequency oscillation.

Description: Cell-centered finite volume methods are prevailing in numerical simulation of flow in porous media. However, due to the lack of cell-centered finite volume methods for mechanics, coupled flow and deformation is usually treated either by coupled finite-volume-finite element discretizations, or within a finite element setting. The former approach is unfavorable as it introduces two separate grid structures, while the latter approach loses the advantages of finite volume methods for the flow equation. Recently we proposed a cell-centered finite volume method for elasticity. Herein we explore the applicability of this novel method to provide a compatible finite volume discretization for coupled hydro-mechanic flows in porous media. We detail in particular the issue of coupling terms, and show how this is naturally handled. Furthermore, we observe how the cell-centered finite volume framework naturally allows for modeling fractured and fracturing porous media through internal boundary conditions. We support the discussion with a set of numerical examples: The convergence properties of the coupled scheme are first investigated; Secondly, we illustrate the practical applicability of the method both for fractured and heterogeneous media.

Description: The spatiotemporal distribution of Land Surface Temperature (LST) is linked to the partitioning of the coupled surface water and energy budgets. In watersheds with a strong seasonality in precipitation and vegetation cover, the temporal evolution of LST patterns are a signature of the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere. Nevertheless, few studies have sought to understand the topographical and ecohydrological controls on LST in regions of complex terrain. Numerical watershed models, tested against spatially-distributed field and remote sensing data, can aid in linking the seasonal evolution of LST to meteorology, terrain, soil and vegetation. In this study, we use a distributed hydrologic model to explore LST patterns in a semiarid mountain basin during the transition from a dry spring to the wetter North American monsoon (NAM). By accounting for vegetation greening through remotely-sensed parameters, the model reproduces LST and surface soil moisture observations derived from ground, aircraft and satellite platforms with good accuracy at individual sites and as spatial basin patterns. Distributed simulations reveal how LST varies with elevation, slope and aspect and the role played by the seasonal vegetation canopy in cooling the land surface and increasing the spatial variability in LST. As a result, LST is shown to track well with ecosystem-specific changes in vegetation cover, evapotranspiration and soil moisture during the NAM. Furthermore, vegetation greening is shown to modulate the spatial heterogeneity of LST during the NAM that should be considered in subsequent atmospheric studies in regions of complex terrain.

Description: Models of landscape evolution or hydrological processes typically depend on the accurate determination of upslope drainage area from digital elevation data, but such calculations can be very computationally demanding when applied to high-resolution topographic data. To overcome this limitation, we propose calculating drainage area in an implicit, iterative manner using linear solvers. The basis of this method is a recasting of the flow routing problem as a sparse system of linear equations, which can be solved using established computational techniques. This approach is highly parallelizable, enabling data to be spread over multiple computer processors. Good scalability is exhibited, rendering it suitable for contemporary high-performance computing architectures with many processors, such as graphics processing units (GPUs). In addition, the iterative nature of the computational algorithms we use to solve the linear system creates the possibility of accelerating the solution by providing an initial guess, making the method well suited to iterative calculations such as numerical landscape evolution models. We compare this method with a previously proposed parallel drainage area algorithm and present several examples illustrating its advantages, including a continent-scale flow routing calculation at 3 arcsecond resolution, improvements to models of fluvial sediment yield, and acceleration of drainage area calculations in a landscape evolution model. We additionally describe a modification that allows the method to be used for parallel basin delineation.

Description: We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300-70 hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a “zonal mean” ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p ≤ 100 hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of 〈15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the datasets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

Description: It has long been recognized that differences in climate model simulated cloud feedbacks are a primary source of uncertainties for the model predicted surface temperature change induced by increasing greenhouse gases such as CO 2 . Large-scale circulation broadly determines when and where clouds form and how they evolve. However, the linkage between large-scale circulation change and cloud radiative effect (CRE) change under global warming has not been thoroughly studied. By analyzing 15 climate models, we show that the change of the Hadley Circulation exhibits meridionally varying weakening and strengthening structures, physically consistent with the cloud changes in distinct cloud regimes. The regions that experience a weakening (strengthening) of the zonal-mean circulation account for 54% (46%) of the multi-model-mean top-of-atmosphere (TOA) CRE change integrated over 45°S-40°N. The simulated Hadley Circulation structure changes per degree of surface warming differ greatly between the models and the inter-model spread in the Hadley Circulation change is well correlated with the inter-model spread in the TOA CRE change. This correlation underscores the close interactions between large-scale circulation and clouds and suggests that the uncertainties of cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity reside in the intimate coupling between large-scale circulation and clouds. New model performance metrics proposed in this work, which emphasize how models reproduce satellite observed spatial variations of zonal-mean cloud fraction and relative humidity associated with the Hadley Circulation, indicate that the models closer to the satellite observations tend to have equilibrium climate sensitivity higher than the multi-model-mean.

Description: Single scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals obtained with CIMEL sun-sky radiometers from the AERONET aerosol monitoring network were used to make comparisons with simultaneous in-situ sampling from aircraft profiles carried out by the NASA Langley Aerosol Group Experiment (LARGE) team in the summer of 2011 during the coincident DRAGON-MD (Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observational Network-Maryland) and DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) experiments. The single scattering albedos (interpolated to 550 nm) derived from AERONET measurements for aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 440 nm ≥ 0.4 (mean SSA: 0.979) were on average 0.011 lower than the values derived from the LARGE profile measurements (mean SSA: 0.99). The maximum difference observed was 0.023 with all the observed differences within the combined uncertainty for the stated SSA accuracy (0.03 for AERONET; 0.02 for LARGE). Single scattering albedo averages were also analyzed for lower aerosol loading conditions (AOD ≥ 0.2) and a dependence on aerosol optical depth was noted with significantly lower single scattering albedos observed for lower AOD in both AERONET and LARGE datasets. Various explanations for the SSA trend were explored based on other retrieval products including volume median radius and imaginary refractive index as well as column water vapor measurements. Additionally, these SSA trends with AOD were evaluated for one of the DRAGON-MD study sites, Goddard Space Flight Center, and two other Mid-Atlantic AERONET sites over the long-term record dating to 1999.

Description: By combining observations and numerical simulations, we investigated the responses of the surface energy budget and the convective boundary layer (CBL) dynamics to the presence of aerosols. A detailed dataset containing (thermo)dynamic observations at CESAR (Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research) and aerosol information from the European Integrated Project on Aerosol, Cloud, Climate, and Air Quality Interactions (IMPACT/EUCAARI) was employed to design numerical experiments reproducing two typical clear-sky days, each characterized by contrasting thermodynamic initial profiles: (i) residual layer above a strong surface inversion, and (ii) well-mixed CBL connected to the free troposphere by a capping inversion, without the residual layer in between. A large-eddy simulation (LES) model and a mixed-layer (MXL) model, coupled to a broadband radiative transfer code and a land-surface model, were used to study the impacts of aerosols on shortwave radiation. Both the LES model and the MXL model results reproduced satisfactorily the observations for both days. A sensitivity analysis on a wide range of aerosol properties was conducted. Our results showed that higher loads of aerosols decreased irradiance imposing an energy restriction at the surface, delaying the morning onset of the CBL and advancing its afternoon collapse. Moderately to strongly absorbing aerosols increased the heating rate contributing positively to increase the afternoon CBL height, potential temperature and to decrease Bowen ratio. In contrast, scattering aerosols were associated with smaller heating rates and cooler and shallower CBLs. Our findings advocate the need for accounting for the aerosol influence in analyzing surface and CBL dynamics.

Description: This study utilizes hydrometeor sonde and radiometer sonde in-situ observations to simultaneously evaluate ice cloud microphysics and radiative fluxes. In addition, the impact of non-sphericity and heterogeneous ice nucleation schemes on radiative fluxes are examined using a double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme on a mid-latitude frontal system. The distribution of simulated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is systematically reduced by assuming the presence of columnar ice crystals instead of planar ice crystals because of the difference in the effective radii (the projected area) between the two shapes. However, the choice of the heterogeneous ice nucleation schemes drastically changes the distribution of OLR by modifying the number concentration of the cloud ice ( N i ) (more than ten-fold). The observed shortwave fluxes are useful for evaluating the simulated number concentration of cloud ice when non-spherical single scattering properties are used instead of spherical single scattering properties. The dependence of the asymmetry factor on the effective radius is the key to quantitatively estimating the ice cloud radiative forcing and determining the aerosol indirect effect on ice clouds. Based on the comparison of shortwave fluxes, the cloud microphysics scheme was found to underestimate the N i near the cloud base (a robust bias). A possible method of modifying the bias is discussed.

Description: ABSTRACT Rising development costs and growing concerns over environmental impacts have led many communities to explore more diversified water management strategies. These 'portfolio'-style approaches integrate existing supply infrastructure with other options such as conservation measures or water transfers. Diversified water supply portfolios have been shown to reduce the capacity and costs required to meet demand, while also providing greater adaptability to changing hydrologic conditions. However, this additional flexibility can also cause unexpected reductions in revenue (from conservation) or increased costs (from transfers). The resulting financial instability can act as a substantial disincentive to utilities seeking to implement more innovative water management techniques. This study seeks to design portfolios that employ financial tools (e.g. contingency funds, index insurance) to reduce fluctuations in revenues and costs, allowing these strategies to achieve improved performance without sacrificing financial stability. This analysis is applied to the development of coordinated regional supply portfolios in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina, an area comprising four rapidly growing municipalities. The actions of each independent utility become interconnected when shared infrastructure is utilized to enable inter-utility transfers, requiring the evaluation of regional tradeoffs in up to five performance and financial objectives. Diversified strategies introduce significant tradeoffs between achieving reliability goals and introducing burdensome variability in annual revenues and/or costs. Financial mitigation tools can mitigate the impacts of this variability, allowing for an alternative suite of improved solutions. This analysis provides a general template for utilities seeking to navigate the tradeoffs associated with more flexible, portfolio-style management approaches.

Description: Despite significant advances during the last decades, there are still many processes related to non-equilibrium flow and transport in macroporous soil that are far from completely understood. The use of X-ray for imaging time-lapse 3-D solute transport has a large potential to help advance the knowledge in this field. We visualized the transport of potassium iodide (20 g iodide l -1 H 2 O) front through a small undisturbed soil column (height 3.8 cm, diameter 6.8 cm) under steady-state hydraulic conditions using an industrial X-ray scanner. In addition, the electrical conductivity was measured in the effluent solution during the experiment. We attained a series of seventeen 3-D difference images which we related to iodide concentrations using a linear calibration relationship. The solute transport through the soil mainly took place in two cylindrical macropores, by-passing more than 90% of the bulk soil volume during the entire experiment. From these macropores the solute diffused into the surrounding soil matrix. We illustrated the properties of the investigated solute transport by comparing it to a 1-D convective-dispersive transport and by calculating the temporal evolution of the dilution index. We furthermore showed that the tracer diffusion from one of the macropores into the surrounding soil matrix could not be exactly fitted with the cylindrical diffusion equation. We believe that similar studies will help establish links between soil structure and solute transport processes and lead to improvements in models for solute transport through undisturbed soil.

Description: A semi-analytical grid-free series solution method is presented for modeling 3-D steady-state free boundary groundwater-surface water exchange in geometrically complex stratified aquifers. Continuous solutions for pressure in the subsurface are determined semi-analytically, as is the location of the water table surface. Mass balance is satisfied exactly over the entire domain except along boundaries and interfaces between layers, where errors are shown to be acceptable. The solutions are derived and demonstrated on a number of test cases and the errors are assessed and discussed. This accurate and grid-free scheme can also be a helpful tool for providing insight into lake-aquifer and stream-aquifer interactions. Here, it is used to assess the impact of lake sediment geometry and properties on lake-aquifer interactions. Various combinations of lake sediment are considered and the appropriateness of the Dupuit-Forchheimer approximation for simulating lake bottom flux distribution is investigated. In addition, the method is applied to a test problem of surface seepage flows from a complex topographic surface; this test case demonstrated the method's efficacy for simulating physically realistic domains.

Description: This article is aimed at quantifying and discussing the relative magnitude of key terms of the equation of conservation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the inter-stem space of a flow within arrays of vertical cylinders simulating plant stems of emergent and rigid vegetation. The spatial distribution of turbulent quantities and mean flow variables are influenced by two fundamental space scales, the diameter of the stems and the local stem areal number-density. Both may vary considerably since the areal distribution of plant stems in natural systems is generally not homogeneous; they are often arranged in alternating sparse and dense patches. The magnitude of the terms of the budget of TKE in the inter-stem space has seldom been quantified experimentally and is currently not well-known. This work addresses this research need. New databases, consisting of three-component LDA velocity series and two-component PIV velocity maps, obtained in carefully controlled laboratory conditions, were used to calculate the terms of the TKE budget. The physical system comprises random arrays of rigid and emergent cylinders with longitudinally varying areal number-density. It is verified that the main source of TKE is vortex shedding from individual cylinders. The rates of production and dissipation are not in equilibrium. Regions with negative production, a previously unreported feature, are identified. Turbulent transport is particularly important along the von Kármán vortex street. Convective rate of change of TKE and pressure diffusion are most relevant in the vicinity of the cylinders.

Description: A major difficulty in modeling multiphase flow in porous media is the emergence of trapped phases. Our experiments demonstrate that gas can be trapped in either single-pores, multi-pores, or in large connected networks. These large connected clusters can comprise up to 8 grain-volumes and can contain up to 50% of the whole trapped gas volume. About 85% of the gas volume is trapped by multi-pore gas clusters. This variety of possible trapped gas clusters of different shape and volume will lead to a better process understanding of bubble-mediated mass transfer. Since multi-pore gas bubbles are in contact with the solid surface through ultra-thin adsorbed water films the interfacial area between trapped gas clusters and intergranular capillary water is only about 80% of the total gas surface. We could derive a significant (R 2 = 0.98) linear relationship between the gas-water-interface and gas saturation. We found no systematic dependency of the front velocity of the invading water phase in the velocity range from 0.1 to 0.6 cm/min corresponding to capillary numbers from 2×10 -7 to 10 -6 . Our experimental results indicate that the capillary trapping mechanism is controlled by the local pore structure and local connectivity and not by thermodynamics, i.e. by the minimum of the Free Energy , at least in the considered velocity range. Consistent with this physical picture is our finding that the trapping frequency (= bubble-size distribution) reflects the pore-size distribution for the whole range of pore radii, i.e. the capillary trapping process is determined by statistics and not by thermodynamics.

Description: A new study of gravity waves produced by thunderstorms was performed using continuous recordings at the IS17 (Ivory Coast) infrasound station of the International Monitoring System (IMS) developed for the verification of the Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). A typical case study is presented for a large thunderstorm on April 10 th and 11 th , 2006 lasting near 14 hours. Comparison with cloud temperature measured by the Meteosat6 satellite shows that wave activity is large when the cloud temperature is low inside convection cells located over the station. Statistics based on 10 year data show that the wave activity is intense throughout the year with peak periods in May and October and less intense activity in January in good agreement with the local keraunic level. The seasonal variations of the wave azimuth highlight clear trends from northward direction from February to August, to southward direction from August to December. Lightning flashes, observed from space show a similar motion confirming that thunderstorms are the main sources of the gravity wave activity. The gravity wave azimuth follows the seasonal motion of the tropical rainbelt partly related to the InterTropical Convergence Zone of the winds. The contribution of other possible sources, such as wind over relief is weak because surface winds are weak in this region and only oceans are present South of the station. We conclude that the large observed wave activity is mainly produced by convection associated to thunderstorms.