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  • Articles  (10,302)
  • 2010-2014  (10,302)
  • Geophysical Research Letters  (4,699)
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  • Physics  (10,302)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: [1]  Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate, thus it is essential to characterise their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution Global Climate Model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extremes for the 21 st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the mid and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and future simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the representation of organised convective systems. Low inter-model variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitudes.
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: [1]  Repeated observations at the subpolar front west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge show a link between the position of the North Atlantic Current (NAC), and the spatial distribution of finescale variance, diapycnal diffusivity, and integrated energy dissipation. Observational data were collected during three cruises. A single branch of the NAC was found in 2008, approximately at 50 ∘ 30Õ N, and two branches were observed in 2010 and 2011, with alternating intensities. Shear variance was elevatedbelow the core of the NAC in all cases, resulting in an average diapycnal diffusivity that is higher by a factor of 3 compared to the averages north and south of the NAC. The integrated energy dissipation has maxima at or south of the fronts; background dissipation is highest during 2008, also the year with the highest surface eddy kinetic energy.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: [1]  The tropospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is analyzed in an idealized model setup regarding the respective roles of planetary-scale and synoptic-scale waves. The control model run includes a full interactive wave spectrum, while a second run includes interactive planetary-scale waves but only the time-mean synoptic-scale wave forcing from the control run. In both runs the tropospheric response is characterized by the negative phase of the respective tropospheric annular mode. But given their different latitudinal structure, the control run shows the expected response, i.e. an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet, whereas the response in the absence of interactive synoptic eddies is characterized by a poleward jet shift. This opposite jet shift is associated with a different planetary wave variability that couples with the zonal flow between the stratosphere and the surface. These results indicate that the synoptic eddy feedback is necessary for the observed tropospheric response to SSWs.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: [1]  Large explosive volcanic eruptions can generate ash clouds from rising plumes that spread in the atmosphere around a Neutral Buoyancy Level (NBL). These ash clouds spread as inertial intrusions and are advected by atmospheric winds. For low mass flow rates, tephra transport is mainly dictated by wind advection, because ash cloud spreading due to gravity current effects is negligible (passive transport). For large mass flow rates, gravity driven transport at the NBL can be the dominant transport mechanism. Conditions under which the passive transport assumption is valid have not yet been critically studied. We analyze the conditions when gravity-driven transport is dominant in terms of the cloud Richardson number. Moreover, we couple an analytical model that describes cloud spreading as a gravity current with an advection–diffusion model. This coupled model is used to simulate the evolution of the volcanic cloud during the climatic phase of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: [1]  Regimes of tropical low-level clouds are commonly identified according to large-scale subsidence and lower tropospheric stability (LTS). This definition alone is insufficient for the distinction between regimes and limits the comparison of low-level clouds from CloudSat radar observations and the ECHAM5 GCM run with the COSP radar simulator. Comparisons of CloudSat radar cloud altitude-reflectivity histograms for stratocumulus and shallow cumulus regimes, as defined above, show nearly identical reflectivity profiles because the distinction between the two regimes is dependent upon atmospheric stability below 700 hPa and observations above 1.5 km. Regional subsets, near California and Hawaii for example, have large differences in reflectivityprofiles than the dynamically defined domain; indicating different reflectivity profiles exist under a given large-scale environment. Regional subsets are better for the evaluation of low-level clouds in CloudSat and ECHAM5 as there is less contamination between 2.5 km to 7.5 km from precipitating hydrometeors which obscured cloud reflectivities.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: [1]  Deep moist atmospheric convection is a key element of the weather and climate system for transporting mass, momentum, and thermal energy. It has been challenging to simulate convection realistically in global atmospheric models, because of the large gap in spatial scales between convection (10 0  km) and global motions (10 4  km). We conducted the first ever sub-kilometer global simulation and described the features of convection. Through a series of grid-refinement resolution testing, we found that an essential change for convection statistics occurred around 2-km grid spacing. The convection structure, number of convective cells, and distance to the nearest convective cell dramatically changed at this resolution. The convection core was resolved using multiple grids in simulations with grid spacings less than 2.0 km.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: [1]  Dry conditions from a moderate El Nino during the fall of 2006 resulted in enhanced burning in Indonesia with fire emissions of CO approximately 4–6 times larger than the prior year. Here we use new tropospheric methane and CO data from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and new CO profile measurements from the Terra Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instruments with the GEOS-Chem model to estimate methane emissions of 4.25 +/− 0.75 Tg for October-November 2006 from these fires. Errors in convective parameterization in GEOS-Chem, evaluated by comparing MOPITT and GEOS-Chem CO profiles, are the primary uncertainty of the emissions estimate. The El Nino related Indonesian fires increased the tropical distribution of atmospheric methane relative to 2005, indicating that tropical biomass burning can compensate for expected decreases in tropical wetland methane emissions from reduced rainfall during El Nino as found in previous studies.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: [1]  In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z October 22-26, 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z Oct. 16-18 captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to six days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next two-day period of 18Z Oct. 21-23. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multi-scale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB); (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200-hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: [1]  Water vapor is an important greenhouse gas in the earth's atmosphere. Absorption of the solar radiation by water vapor in the near UV region may partially account for the up to 30% discrepancy between the modeled and the observed solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere. But the magnitude of water vapor absorption in the near UV region at wavelengths shorter than 384 nm is not known. We have determined absorption cross sections of water vapor at 5 nm intervals in the 290-350 nm region, by using cavity ring-down spectroscopy. Water vapor cross section values range from 2.94 × 10 -24 to 2.13 × 10 -25  cm 2 /molecule in the wavelength region studied. The effect of the water vapor absorption in the 290-350 nm region on the modeledradiation flux at the ground level has been evaluated using radiative transfer model.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2013-09-12
    Description: [1]  The RAPID-MOCHA array has observed the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N since 2004. During 2009/2010, there was a transient 30% weakening of the AMOC driven by anomalies in geostrophic and Ekman transports. Here, we use simulations based on the Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) to diagnose the relative importance of atmospheric forcings and internal ocean dynamics in driving the anomalous geostrophic circulation of 2009/10. Data assimilating experiments with FOAM accurately reproduce the mean strength and depth of the AMOC at 26.5°N. In addition, agreement between simulated and observed stream functions in the deep ocean is improved when we calculate the AMOC using a method that approximates the RAPID observations. The main features of the geostrophic circulation anomaly are captured by an ensemble of simulations without data-assimilation. These model results suggest that the atmosphere played a dominant role in driving recent interannual variability of the AMOC.
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: [1]  Understanding and explaining the trend in GMSL has important implications for future projections of sea level rise. While measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of GMSL, the modern altimetry record has only now reached twenty years in length, making it difficult to assess the contribution of decadal to multi-decadal climate signals to the global trend. Here, we use a sea level reconstruction to study the twenty-year trends in sea level since 1950. In particular, we show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) contributes significantly to the twenty-year trends in GMSL. We estimate the PDO contribution to the GMSL trend over the past twenty years to be approximately 0.49 ± 0.25 mm/year, and find that removing the PDO contribution reduces the acceleration in GMSL estimated over the past sixty years.
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2013-09-14
    Description: [1]  This study examines links between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) at both inter-annual and decadal scales. The major findings are summarized as follows: (1) NPGO makes significant impacts on the WNP TC frequency at both inter-annual and decadal time scales. The impacts of NPGO on the TC activity are more profound than those exerted by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. (2) Niño 3 plays a more important role than Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 in modulating the decadal WNP TC activity. (3) Positive low-level relative vorticity and weak zonal vertical wind shear are responsible for the increase in the WNP TC activity in negative NPGO phases. This study indicates that the NPGO and Niño 3 indices should be key factors for building a scheme for decadal prediction of occurrences of WNP TCs.
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2013-09-17
    Description: [1]  Inter-plate coupling on the Hikurangi subduction margin along the east coast of New Zealand's North Island changes north to south from almost uncoupled to locked. Clay-rich sediments and aqueous-fluids at the subduction interface have been invoked as key factors in the frictional processes that control inter-plate coupling. Here we use magnetotelluric (MT) data to show that the subduction interface in the weakly coupled region is electrically conductive, but is resistive in the locked region. These results indicate the presence of a layer of fluid- and clay-rich sediments in the weakly coupled region and support the idea that the presence of fluid and hydrated clays at the interface is a major factor controlling plate coupling.
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2013-09-17
    Description: [1]  We report a new type of variations in Doppler velocity of HF ground scatter echoes from the polar cap at f ~10 mHz. Similar fluctuations from lower latitudes are usually associated with large-scale dayside Pc3-4 ULF waves. However, the polar cap oscillations exhibit a puzzling anisotropy in spatial coherence along and across the radar's line-of-sight. Furthermore, in contrast to Pc3-4 waves, these fluctuations show no ground magnetic signatures and display a pronounced gap in power/occurrence around local noon. We hypothesize that localized, ≤100 km, auroral particle precipitations near the radar site can modulate Doppler shift of the radio waves entering the ionosphere. In the ground scatter returns, due to the geometrical spread of the rays propagating through the ionosphere to the ground, these variations would appear to have a much larger line-of-sight scale.
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2013-09-20
    Description: [1]  In this study we present 3D data assimilation using CRRES data and 3D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt Model using a newly developed operator-splitting method. Simulations with synthetic data show that the operator-splitting Kalman filtering technique proposed in this study can successfully reconstruct the underlying dynamic evolution of the radiation belts. The method is further verified by the comparison with the conventional Kalman filter. We applied the new approach to 3D data assimilation of real data, to globally reconstruct the dynamics of the radiation belts using pitch-angle, energy, and L-shell dependent CRRES observations. An L-shell time cross-sections of the global data assimilation results for nearly equatorially mirroring particles and high and low values of the first adiabatic invariants clearly show the difference between the radial profiles of phase space density. At μ  = 700 MeV/G cross-section of the global reanalysis shows a clear peak in the phase space density, while at lower energy of 70 MeV/G the profiles are monotonic. Since the radial profiles are obtained from one global reanalysis, the differences in the profiles reflect the differences in the underlying physical processes responsible for the dynamic evolution of the radiation belt energetic and relativistic electrons.
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2013-09-21
    Description: [1]  This study evaluates the potential of a proposed technique in using satellite-borne radiometer measurements and weather analyses to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones. This theory shows that intensity is essentially directly related to the temperature deficit of cloud-top versus sea-surface, and the surplus in saturation entropy in the eyewall versus its surroundings. The eyewall entropy estimate comes from measurements of cloud-top temperature and pressure, and the analysis provides the environmental saturation entropy. An Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was conducted and the results were compared to those from previous studies using cloud-profiling radar altimetry measurements. The use of cloud-top pressure measurements may produce more accurate results. Inherent challenges still require caution in considering operational implementation.
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2013-09-22
    Description: [1]  Structural evolution of monsoon clouds in the core monsoon region of India has been examined using multi-sensor data. Invigoration of warm clouds above 4.5 km (occurring in only 15.4% days of the last 11 monsoon seasons) is associated with a transition from negative to positive normalized rainfall anomaly. Cloud top pressure reduces with an increase in aerosol optical depth at a higher rate of invigoration in drier condition (characterized by large fraction of absorbing aerosols) than wet condition. Cloud effective radius for warm clouds does not show any significant change with an increase in aerosol concentration in presence of high liquid water path, probably due to strong buffering role of meteorology. The structural evolution of monsoon clouds is influenced by both dynamic and microphysical processes that prolong the cloud lifetime, resulting in infrequent rainfall. Our results call for improved representation of aerosol and cloud vertical structures in the climate models to resolve this issue.
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  An increased frequency and intensity of winter and spring storms have recently manifested over a broad area of North America—along the east coast of the U.S. especially, though global mean storm tracks are suggested to shift northward. To understand these changes, we have conducted atmospheric model experiments, examining the response of North American storm activity to the elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) associated with El Niño. The results indicate that, when tropical Pacific SST increases, there are more numerous intense storms over southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern North America, but fewer weaker storms over the northeast. Transient eddy analysis of the general circulation demonstrates consistent changes, suggesting systematic changes from large-scale general circulation to synoptic-scale storms. These changes can be attributed to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity, to which the southward shift and an intensification of extratropical jet streams make a major contribution.
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and large-scale rapid release of methane from hydrate may have contributed to past abrupt climate change inferred from the geological record. The discovery in 2008 of over 250 plumes of methane gas escaping from the seabed of the West Svalbard continental margin at ~400 m water depth (mwd), suggests that hydrate is dissociating in the present-day Arctic. Here, we model the dynamic response of hydrate-bearing sediments over a period of 2300 yr and investigate ocean warming as a possible cause for present-day and likely future dissociation of hydrate, within 350-800 mwd, west of Svalbard. Future temperatures are given by two climate models, HadGEM2 and CCSM4, and scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 2.6. Our results suggest that over the next three centuries 5.3-29 Gg yr -1 of methane may be released to the Arctic Ocean on the West Svalbard margin.
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  In recent years it has been discovered that sections of the subduction interface slip aseismically in slow slip events, during which stress is intermittently transferred to the section of the subduction zone that generates large or great earthquakes. Within the Cascadia subduction zone the magnitude and frequency of SSEs and accompanying tectonic tremor exhibit complex patterns that vary systematically with depth. However the loading mechanisms and interactions that precede great subduction earthquakes are poorly understood. Here we present results from physics-based simulations that reproduce the continuum of SSE characteristics reported for the Cascadia subduction zone. The simulations provide a basis for understanding the interactions that control both the observed complex patterns of SSEs and stress transfer to the seismogenic section that produce great earthquakes.
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  Clouds over the Southern Ocean exist in a pristine environment that results in unique microphysical properties. However, in-situ observations of these clouds are rare, and the dominant precipitation processes are unknown. Uncertainties in their life cycles and radiative properties make them interesting from a weather and climate perspective. Data from the standard cloud physics payload during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) global transects provide a unique snapshot the nature of low-level clouds in the Southern Ocean. High quantities of supercooled liquid water (up to 0.47gm –3 ) were observed in clouds as cold as –22 °C during two flights in different seasons and different meteorological conditions, supporting climatologies inferred from satellite observations. Cloud droplet concentrations were calculated from mean droplet size and liquid water concentrations, and were in the range of 30–120 cm –3 , which is fairly typical for the pristine Southern Ocean environment. Ice in non- or lightly-precipitating clouds was found to be rare, while drizzle drops with diameter greater than 100  μ m formed through warm rain processes were widespread. Large, pristine crystals were commonly seen in very low concentrations below cloud base.
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  The India-Eurasia collision is responsible for producing the Himalayan Mountains and Tibetan plateau and has been hypothesized to have significant far field influences, including driving the Baikal rift and the eastward extrusion of South China. However, quantification of lithospheric buoyancy forces and integrated effect of tractions acting at base of the lithosphere are unable to explain the observed surface motions within South China. We present 198 new SKS shear-wave splitting observations beneath South China and invert these data along with published GPS data to solve for the sub-asthenospheric flow field beneath South China to assess the role of small-scale convection here. We find a 15-20 mm/yr southwestward-directed mantle flow towards the Burma slab. This flow is consistent with the mantle response of slab retreat over the past 25ma, and counter flow due to subduction of Burma/Sunda slabs demonstrating the importance of localized mantle convection on present day plate motions.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Rotational along with translational and strain measurements are essential for a complete description of the motion of a deformable body in a seismic event. We propose a new seismogeodetic approach where collocated high-rate GPS and accelerometer measurements are combined to estimate permanent and dynamic coseismic ground tilts at a point, whereas at present only dynamic tilts are measured with either a dense seismic array or an expensive ring laser gyroscope. We estimate point tilts for a five-story structure on a shake table subjected to 13 earthquake strong-motion records of increasing intensity. For the most intense record from the 2002 M7.9 Denali earthquake, we observe a peak-to-peak dynamic tilt of 0.12°, and a permanent tilt of 0.16° for the structure's roof. Point tilts derived from networks of collocated GPS and accelerometers can be used to estimate the rotational component of seismic wavefield for improved earthquake source characterization.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Following the recent discovery of the “Modoki” El Niño, a proliferation of studies and debates has ensued concerning whether Modoki is dynamically distinct from “Canonical” El Niño, how Modoki impacts and teleconnections differ, and whether Modoki events have been increasing in frequency or amplitude. Three decades of reliable, high temporal–resolution observations of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the equatorial Pacific reveal a rich diversity of El Niños. Although central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies appear mechanistically separable in terms of local and remote forcing, their frequent overlap precludes robust classifications. All observed El Niños appear to be a mixture of locally (central Pacific) and remotely forced (eastern Pacific) SST anomalies. Submonthly resolution appears essential for this insight and for the proper dynamical diagnosis of El Niño evolution, thus the use of long–term monthly reconstructions for classification and trend analysis is strongly cautioned against.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements from the Aquarius/SAC-D satellite and SMOS mission were used to document the freshening associated with the record 2011 Mississippi River flooding event in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Assessment of the salinity response was aided by additional satellite observations, including MODIS chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and ocean surface currents, and a passive tracer simulation. Low SSS values associated with the spreading of the river plume were observed 1–3 months after peak river discharge which then receded and became unidentifiable from satellite observations 5 months after maximum discharge. The seasonal wind pattern and general circulation of the GoM dramatically impacted the observed salinity response, transporting freshwater eastward along the Gulf coast and entraining low salinity waters into the open GoM. The observed salinity response from Aquarius was consistent with SMOS SSS, chl-a concentrations, and the passive tracer simulation in terms of the pathway and transit time of the river plume spreading. This study is the first successful application of satellite SSS to study salinity variation in marginal seas.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  This study uses a simulation method to explore how estuarine pH is affected by mixing between river water, anthropogenic CO 2 enriched seawater, and by respiration. Three rivers with different levels of weathering products (Amazon, Mississippi, and St. Johns) are selected for this simulation. The results indicate that estuaries that receive low to moderate levels of weathering products (Amazon and St. Johns) exhibit a maximum pH decrease in the mid-salinity region as a result of anthropogenic CO 2 intrusion. This maximum pH decrease coincides with a previously unrecognized mid-salinity minimum buffer zone (MBZ). In addition, water column oxygen consumption can further depress pH for all simulated estuaries. We suggest that recognition of the estuarine MBZs may be important for studying estuarine calcifying organisms and pH-sensitive biogeochemical processes.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  A simple wavy magnetodisk model can explain periodicities in energetic charged particles observed in Saturn's outer magnetosphere (〉20 R S ). The model's free parameters are the tilt of magnetodisk in inner magnetosphere (~1.8°), speed of outgoing spiral wave (~8 R S /hr), critical radius (~10 R S ), and period of rotation (10.64 hours). The fidelity of the model is not judged by a least squares fit to the actual data, but rather by the model's accuracy in reproducing the Lomb periodogram of the periodicities. The model accurately simulates the main spectral feature near ~10.7 hours plus a secondary (“dual”) period near ~10.95 hours. The ability of the wavy magnetodisk with one period to produce the observed dual periodicity in the observations suggests that models having “dual” periods need not be invoked to explain some of the periodicities in Saturn's outer magnetosphere.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  The fluid-filled crack model has been widely used to interpret the peak frequencies of long-period (LP) seismic events at volcanoes. Up to now, numerical methods have been used to compute resonant frequencies in the model. We propose a simple analytical formula for the longitudinal resonance frequencies of a fluid-filled crack. We evaluated the formula by comparing its results with the resonant frequencies computed by finite difference method (FDM) code. The comparison revealed that the formula well describes the resonant frequencies of both 2D and 3D cracks. The formula enables simple and rapid estimates of the fluid properties and geometries of LP source cracks.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  We determined the compressional velocity of hcp-Fe using high resolution inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS) combined with in-situ X-ray powder diffraction (XRD): our measurements extend up to 174 GPa at room temperature, to 88 GPa at 700 K, and to 61.5 GPa at 1000 K. Our data, including those obtained at high temperature, are well described by a linear relation to density, extending the range of verification of Birch's law, and suggesting only small temperature dependence up to 1000 K. This result, once compared to the PREM seismologically based model, indicates that there is either a strong temperature effect on Birch's law above 1000 K, or that the composition of the core is rather different than expected, containing, e.g. heavy impurities. Noting that both recent theoretical calculations and shock-wave velocity measurements are consistent with modification of Birch's law at high temperature, we favor the former explanation.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: [1]  Using a traceable framework of idealised GCM experiments, a non-linear dependence of tropical precipitation pattern change on CO 2 forcing is identified. These non-linearities are relatively large and widespread throughout the tropics, and so should not be neglected in projections of future precipitation change. This has implications for the use of pattern-scaling and simple climate models to produce precipitation projections, and for physical understanding of precipitation change across forcing scenarios. The non-linearities can be understood by considering that processes which cause precipitation change, such as increasing moisture, a weakening circulation, and convergence zone shifts, interact in a non-linear manner even when individual processes arequasi-linear. Three driver interactions are identified: ‘warm-shift’, ‘warm-weak’ and ‘shift-weak’. Combined with Clausius-Clapeyron non-linearity in moisture increase, these interactions drive the non-linear pattern change. A strong convergence feedback response substantially amplifies the non-linearity. This analysis is limited to ocean regions, as mechanisms are simpler than over land.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: [1]  We present a new method to study harmonic waves in the low ionosphere (60 - 90 km) by detecting their effects on reflection of very low frequency (VLF) radio waves. Our procedure is based on amplitude analysis of reflected VLF radio waves recorded in real time, which yields an insight into the dynamics of the ionosphere at heights where VLF radio waves are being reflected. The method was applied to perturbations induced by the solar terminator motions at sunrises and sunsets. The obtained results show that typical perturbation frequencies found to exist in higher regions of the atmosphere are also present in the lower ionosphere, which indicates a global nature of the considered oscillations. In our model atmosphere, they turn out to be the acoustic and gravity waves with comparatively short and long periods, respectively.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: [1]  Development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) during the Cenozoic is controversial in terms of timing and its role in major climate transitions. Some propose that the development of the ACC was instrumental in the continental scale glaciation of Antarctica and climate cooling at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. Here we present climate model results that show a coherent ACC was not possible during the Oligocene due to Australasian paleogeography, despite deep water connections through the Drake Passage and Tasman Gateway and the initiation of Antarctic glaciation. The simulations of ocean currents compare well to paleoenvironmental records relating to the physical oceanography of the Oligocene and provide a framework for understanding apparently contradictory dating of the initiation of the ACC. We conclude that the northward motion of the Australasian land masses and the reconfiguration of the Tasman Seaway and Drake Passage are necessary preconditions for the formation of a strong, coherent ACC.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: [1]  The M 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake radiated waves that likely dynamically triggered the M 7.5 Craig earthquake, setting two precedents. Firstly, the triggered earthquake is the largest dynamically triggered shear failure event documented to date. Secondly, the events highlight a connection between geologic structure, sedimentary troughs that act as waveguides, and triggering probability. The Haida Gwaii earthquake excited extraordinarily large waves within and beyond the Queen Charlotte Trough, which propagated well into mainland Alaska and likely triggering the Craig earthquake along the way. Previously, focusing and associated dynamic triggering have been attributed to unpredictable source effects. This case suggests that elevated dynamic triggering probabilities may exist along the many structures where sedimentary troughs overlie major faults, such as subduction zones’ accretionary prisms and transform faults’ axial valleys. Although data are sparse, I find no evidence of accelerating seismic activity in the vicinity of the Craig rupture between it and the Haida Gwaii earthquake.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2013-09-12
    Description: [1]  Abundant short-period, small-scale gravity waves have been identified in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Halley, Antarctica, via ground-based airglow image data. Although many are observed as freely-propagating at the heights of the airglow layers, new results under modeled conditions reveal that a significant fraction of these waves may be subject to reflections at altitudes above and below. The waves may at times be trapped within broad thermal ducts, spanning from the tropopause or stratopause to the base of the thermosphere (~140 km), which may facilitate long-range propagation (~1000 s of km) under favorable wind conditions.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: [1]  The capability of seasonal forecasting of global drought onset at local scales (1-degree) has been investigated using multiple climate models with 110 realizations. Climate models increase the global mean probability of drought onset detection from the climatology forecast by 31%-81%, but only increase equitable threat score by 21%-50% due to a high false alarm ratio. The multi-model ensemble increases the drought detectability over some tropical areas where individual models have better performance, but cannot help more over most extra-tropical regions. On average, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with low potential predictability and weak antecedent ENSO signal. Given the high false alarms, the reliability is very important for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. This raises the question of whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset is essentially a stochastic forecasting problem.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: [1]  New sub-auroral K -derived sector indices are proposed. They are based upon the K local geomagnetic activity indices from the planetary am network stations, and their derivation scheme draws directly from that of am indices. Four Magnetic Local Time (MLT) sectors are considered, leading to four different K -derived MLT-sector indices: the aσ Dawn (03-09 MLT), aσ Noon (09-15 MLT), aσ Dusk (15-21 MLT) and aσ Midnight (21-03 MLT) indices. They cover more than 4 solar cycles and, thus, allow robust statistical analysis. Statistical studies of the whole aσ data series and case studies for two geomagnetic storms are presented. These analyses clearly show that the four aσ have specific behaviors, and that it is possible to get insight into both the statistical properties of the physical processes responsible for the observed geomagnetic activity and contribution to the dynamics of a given storm.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: [1]  Boreal-winter near-surface atmospheric circulations over the Hawaiian region are known to influence the state of the tropical Pacific and initiate the development of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Here we show that these same preceding near-surface circulations have an additional influence on the longitudinal position of the resultant ENSO-related sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as well, with warm (cold) events systematically shifted to the east (west) of the typical SST anomalies. In influencing this positioning, these atmospheric circulations in turn modify the near and far-field climate responses to these SSTs such that during warm events, the typical ENSO-related responses east (west) of the dateline are generally enhanced (reduced); conversely, during cold events the typical ENSO-related responses are generally reduced (enhanced). The fact that the extratropical atmospheric circulations in question influence the asymmetry of ENSO extremes with a 12-month lead time carries important implications for predicting the socio-economic impacts of these events.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2013-09-17
    Description: [1]  The 1996 short-lived subaqueous eruption at the Karymsky caldera lake suddenly changed the composition of the lake water. The lake with the surface area of ~10 km 2 and a volume of ~0.5 km 3 became acidic, increased its salinity to ~1000 mg/kg, and became dominated by SO 4 2- and Ca 2+ . Since the eruption, the lake chemistry has evolved in a predictable manner described by simple box model. As a result of dilution by incoming SO 4 -Ca-Mg poor water, SO 4 , Ca and Mg concentrations follow a simple exponential decrease with a characteristic time close to the residence time of the lake. Na, K and Cl decrease relatively significantly slower indicating a continuing input of these constituents into the lake that was initiated during the eruption. Thus, the dynamics of two groups of lake water solutes can be predicted by a simple box model for water and solute mass balance.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2013-09-17
    Description: [1]  Our understanding of Earth's carbon-climate system depends critically upon interactions between rising atmospheric CO 2 , changing land use, and nitrogen limitation on vegetation growth. Using a global land model we show how these factors interact locally to generate the global land carbon sink over the past 200 years. Nitrogen constraints were alleviated by N 2 fixation in the tropics and by atmospheric nitrogen deposition in extra-tropical regions. Non-linear interactions between land-use change and land carbon and nitrogen cycling originated from three major mechanisms: (i) a sink foregone that would have occurred without land-use conversion; (ii) an accelerated response of secondary vegetation to CO 2 and nitrogen, and (iii) a compounded clearance loss from deforestation. Over time, these non-linear effects have become increasingly important and reduce the present-day net carbon sink by ~40% or 0.4 PgC yr -1 .
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2013-09-19
    Description: [1]  The stability of the K-rich new aluminous (NAL) phase was examined on the join Na 1.00  Mg 2.00 Al 4.80 Si 1.15 O 12 –K 1.00  Mg 2.00 Al 4.80 Si 1.15 O 12 (Na100–K100) up to 144 GPa by X-ray diffraction in a laser-heated diamond-anvil cell. Single-phase K100 and Na50K50 NAL were formed up to the lower mantle conditions, and the NAL phase coexisted with the calcium ferrite-type phase at 120 GPa and 2300 K for the Na75K25 bulk composition. This is a striking contrast to the K-free (Na100) NAL that becomes unstable above 27 GPa at 1850 K, which suggests that potassium stabilizes NAL at significantly higher pressures. K-rich NAL may host potassium in the lower mantle that contains K 2 O more than 0.09 wt%. In addition, the NAL phase likely formed owing to partial melting in the ultralow velocity zone or because of a basal magma ocean. Future seismological observations may clarify whether NAL is a radiogenic heat source above the core–mantle boundary.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2013-09-19
    Description: [1]  We have developed a new wave scheme particularly aiming to provide better temperature fields with realistic variability for trajectory modeling of dehydration processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The new scheme includes amplitude-phase interpolation and amplification of waves in reanalysis data. Amplification factors are based on statistical variability differences between reanalysis data and radiosonde observations at 24 tropical locations during 1997-2013 boreal winters. We show that conventional linear interpolation of temperatures in the vertical coordinate degrades wave amplitudes and variability. Amplitude-phase interpolation in Fourier space greatly mitigates the problem found in linear interpolation. Furthermore, amplitudes of existing waves in reanalyses were amplified to generate realistic variability. In addition to improvements in variability, the scheme lowers cold point temperatures and raises cold point tropopause heights. Having realistic variability with the new approach will reduce uncertainties in simulations of TTL cirrus clouds and stratospheric water vapor.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2013-09-19
    Description: [1]  High ambient temperatures intensify photochemical production of tropospheric ozone, leading to concerns that global warming may exacerbate smog episodes. This widely-observed phenomenon has been termed the climate penalty factor (CPF). A variety of meteorological and photochemical processes have been suggested to explain why surface ozone increases on hot days. Here, we quantify an anthropogenic factor previously overlooked: the rise of ozone precursor emissions on hot summer days due to high electricity demand. Between 1997 and 2011, power plant emissions of NO x in the eastern U.S. increased by ~2.5-4.0%/°C, raising surface NO x concentrations by 0.10-0.25 ppb/°C. Given an ozone production efficiency (OPE) of ~8 mol/mol based on the 2011 NASA DISCOVER-AQ campaign, at least 1/3 of the CPF observed in the eastern U.S. can be attributed to the temperature dependence of NO x emissions. This finding suggests that controlling emissions associated with electricity generation on hot summer days can mitigate the CPF.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2013-09-20
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2013-09-24
    Description: [1]  We derive a finite slip model for the 2013 M w 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake (Z = 610 km) by inverting calibrated teleseismic P-waveforms. The inversion shows that the earthquake ruptured on a 10° dipping rectangular fault zone (140 km × 50 km) and evolved into a sequence of 4 large sub-events (E1-E4) with an average rupture speed of 4.0 km/s. The rupture process can be divided into two main stages. The first propagated south, rupturing sub-events E1, E2 and E4. The second stage (E3) originated near E2 with a delay of 12 s and ruptured northwards, filling the slip-gap between E1 and E2. This kinematic process produces an overall slip pattern similar to that observed in shallow swarms, except it occurs over a compressed time span of about 30s and without many aftershocks, suggesting that sub-event triggering for deep events is significantly more efficient than for shallow events.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2013-09-24
    Description: [1]  We report on seismic and petrological data that provide new constraints on the geological evolution of the Amerasia Basin. A seismic reflection profile across the Makarov Basin, located between the Mendeleev and Lomonosov ridges, shows a complete undisturbed sedimentary section of Mesozoic/Cenozoic age. In contrast to the Mendeleev Ridge, the margin of the Lomonosov Ridge is wide and shows horst and graben structures. We suggest that the Mendeleev Ridge is most likely volcanic in origin and support this finding with a 40 Ar/ 39 Ar isotopic age for a tholeitic basalt sampled from the central Alpha/Mendeleev Ridge. Seismic reflection data for the Makarov Basin show no evidence of compressional features consistent with the Lomonosov Ridge moving as a microplate in the Cenozoic. We propose that the Amerasia Basin moved as a single tectonic plate during the opening of the Eurasia Basin.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2013-09-24
    Description: [1]  Scaling relations for seismic moment M 0 , rupture area S , average slip D , and asperity size S a were obtained for large, great, and giant ( M w  = 6.7–9.2) subduction-zone earthquakes. We compiled the source parameters for seven giant ( M w  ~ 9) earthquakes globally for which the heterogeneous slip distributions were estimated from tsunami and geodetic data. We defined S a for subfaults exhibiting slip greater than 1.5 times D . Adding 25 slip models of 10 great earthquakes around Japan, we recalculated regression relations for 32 slip models: S  = 1.34 × 10 −10   M 0 2/3 , D  = 1.66 × 10 −7   M 0 1/3 , S a  = 2.81 × 10 −11   M 0 2/3 , and S a / S  = 0.2, where S and S a are in km 2 , M 0 is in Nm, and D is in m. These scaling relations are very similar to those obtained by Murotani et al. (2008) for large and great earthquakes. Thus, both scaling relations can be used for future tsunami hazard assessment associated with a giant earthquake.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2013-09-24
    Description: [1]  We observe the nucleation phase of in-plane ruptures in the laboratory. We show that the nucleation is composed of two distinct phases, a quasi-static and an acceleration stage, followed by dynamic propagation. We propose an empirical model which describes the rupture length evolution: the quasi-static phase is described by an exponential growth while the acceleration phase is described by an inverse power law of time. The transition from quasistatic to accelerating rupture is related to the critical nucleation length, which scales inversely with normal stress in accordance with theoretical predictions, and to a critical surfacic power, which may be an intrinsic property of the interface. Finally, we discuss these results in the frame of previous studies and propose a scaling up to natural earthquake dimensions.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  Gravity anomalies derived from recent GRAIL data suggest the presence of early volume expansion of the Moon. The absence of identifiable thrust faults limits the total net contraction that has occurred. These observations provide constraints on the lunar thermal evolution which raise questions for giant impact origin of the Moon. To study the lunar expansion/contraction history, we perform 3D thermochemical mantle evolution models, with solidifying core overlain by a layer of ilmenite-bearing cumulates (IBC) resulting from mantle overturn after magma ocean solidification. Our models focus on the effects of the overturn-produced density stratification with a deep heat-producing element (HPE) distribution and a top insulating megaregolith layer. The deep HPE can cause an early expansion up to 1.5 km radius due to the heating of the deep mantle. This HPE distribution also reduces the present-day contraction by ~7 km. Compared to the models without overturn, an end-member model with a stable IBC-rich layer on the core-mantle boundary shows an overall present-day contraction as small as 1.1 km. The low thermal conductivity of megaregolith also affects the present-day contraction, reducing it by ~ 3 km.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  The interaction between the moons and the magnetosphere of giant planets sometimes gives rise to auroral signatures in the planetary ionosphere, called the satellite footprints. So far, footprints have been detected for Io, Europa, Ganymede and Enceladus. These footprints are usually seen as single spots. However, the Io footprint, the brightest one, displays a much more complex morphology made of at least three different spots and an extended tail. Here, we present Hubble Space Telescope FUV images showing evidence for a second spot in the Ganymede footprint. The spots separation distance changes as Ganymede moves latitudinally in the plasma sheet, as is seen for the Io footprint. This indicates that the processes identified at Io are universal. Moreover, for similar Ganymede System III longitudes, the distance may also vary significantly with time, indicating changes in the plasma sheet density. We identified a rapid evolution of this distance ~8 days after the detection of a volcanic outburst at Io, suggesting that such auroral observations could be used to estimate the plasma density variations at Ganymede.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: [1]  This paper presents a predictability study of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that relies on combining empirical model reduction (EMR) with the “past-noise forecasting” (PNF) method. EMR is a data-driven methodology for constructing stochastic rotect low-dimensional models that account for nonlinearity, seasonality, and serial correlation in the estimated noise, while PNF constructs an ensemble of forecasts that accounts for interactions between (i) high-frequency variability (“noise”), estimated here by EMR; and (ii) the low-frequency mode (LFM) of MJO, as captured by singular-spectrum analysis (SSA). A key result is that — compared to an EMR ensemble driven by generic white noise — PNF is able to considerably improve prediction of MJO phase. When forecasts are initiated from weak MJO conditions, the useful skill is of up to 30 days. PNF also significantly improves MJO prediction skill for forecasts that start over the Indian Ocean.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  The Mojave Neovolcanic Province (MNVP), located in the Mojave block of southern California, comprises late Miocene to Quaternary small-volume basaltic centers. Geochemistry indicates an asthenospheric source for the MNVP beginning in the late Miocene, but no physical evidence of missing mantle lithosphere has been presented. We utilize receiver functions and ambient noise tomography to image the lithosphere beneath the Mojave block. Regionally, we find thin crust that thickens distal to sites of MNVP volcanism. Shear wave velocities between 40 and 75 km depth are consistent with the presence of mantle lithosphere in the southern Mojave block and very thin or missing mantle lithosphere to the north. With one exception, MNVP volcanoes lie along this sharp boundary. Our observations, together with the established geologic history and geochemistry of the MNVP, can be explained by small-scale edge-driven convection producing ongoing lithospheric removal within the Mojave block. Our results provide another example of lithospheric instability that occurs in response to rapid changes in mantle dynamics induced by major changes in tectonic plate geometry.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Computational, Mössbauer and synchrotron radiation experiments arrive at disparate conclusions regarding the magnetic state of the high-pressure, hexagonal closed packed, phase of iron, which likely comprises the bulk composition of Earth's inner core. Using a non-magnetic, moissanite anvil cell together with a superconducting magnetometer, we measured the remanent magnetization of iron in response to applied magnetic fields under pressure up to 21.5 GPa at room temperature. Two independent experiments using different pressure transmission media reveal a higher remanent magnetization at 21.5 GPa than at initial conditions, which could be attributed to a distorted hexagonal closed packed phase grown during the martensitic transition. Upon both compression and decompression, the remanent magnetization of the body centered cubic phase increases several times over initial conditions while the coercivity of remanence remains mostly invariant with pressure.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Numerous empirical studies have analyzed International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data and reached contradictory conclusions regarding the influence of solar-modulated galactic cosmic rays on cloud fraction and cloud properties. The Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument on the Terra satellite has been in continuous operation for 13 years and thus provides an independent (and previously unutilized) cloud dataset to investigate purported solar–cloud links. Furthermore, unlike many previous solar–climate studies that report cloud fraction MISR measures albedo, which has clearer climatological relevance. Our long-term analysis of MISR data finds no statistically significant correlations between cosmic rays and global albedo or globally averaged cloud height, and no evidence for any regional or lagged correlations. Moreover, epoch superposition analysis of Forbush decreases reveals no detectable albedo response to cosmic ray decreases, thereby placing an upper limit on the possible influence of cosmic ray variations on global albedo of 0.0029 per 5% decrease. The implications for recent global warming are discussed.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  We studied decadal-scale climate control of zooplankton biogeography driven by Kuroshio Extension (KE) dynamics using long-term zooplankton data and an advection model driven with currents from the Earth Simulator eddy-resolving ocean model. Passive tracer model experiments indicated that warm-water species transported from the south were retained in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region during years with a weak KE. A 2.5-year lag in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index was significantly correlated with the KE strength and with warm-water species abundance. These findings indicate that climate signals from the central and eastern North Pacific propagated westward, influencing not only transport in the KOE region but also regional ecosystem variability. Because the NPGO controls important aspects of the transport dynamics and ecosystem variability in the eastern North Pacific, this study provides additional evidence that large-scale climate patterns drive coherent changes in ecosystems throughout the North Pacific by impacting regional-scale transport dynamics.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Using a stable isotope tracer technique, we studied the exchange of methyl chloride (CH 3 Cl) and methyl bromide (CH 3 Br) between plants and the atmosphere in a tropical rainforest in Malaysia. Most plant species examined showed not only production but also consumption of CH 3 Cl with a large net emission overall. In contrast, CH 3 Br consumption was comparable to its production, so the net emission was small. The rates of CH 3 Cl and CH 3 Br consumption were highly correlated with each other, and their ratio was consistent with reported values in terrestrial ecosystems, where microorganisms are responsible for the consumption. Such microorganisms might participate in the consumption we observed, as the consumption rates were faster in saplings, whose leaves were generally covered by epiphytic microorganisms, than in healthy looking leaves of mature trees.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Taiwan's active mountain belt is a spotlight for orogenic studies and was first used to test the critical-taper wedge mechanics. The concept of an orogenic wedge above a shallow detachment surface has been highly influential on current understanding of orogenic processes in Taiwan. However, the recent M L 6.2 and M L 6.5 2013 Nantou reverse-faulting earthquakes in central Taiwan nucleated below the proposed detachment indicating that active mountain building is occurring below the orogenic wedge. We estimate the coseismic slip distributions and fault geometry using the uniform stress drop slip inversions. The earthquakes occur on essentially the same 30° dipping fault plane ramping up from ~20 km depth near a cluster of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake aftershocks to the shallow detachment and the Chi-Chi fault plane. The fault could be a deep extension of a mature shallow fault or a newly-developed deep ramp fault that is not reflected in the surface geology.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Comparisons between climate models have found large differences in predictions for the albedo of forested regions with snow cover, leading to uncertainty in the strength of snow albedo feedbacks on climate change predicted by these models. To explore this uncertainty, three commonly used methods for calculating the albedo of vegetated surfaces are compared, taking observed snow and vegetation distributions as inputs. Surprisingly, all three methods produce similar results and compare reasonably well with observations over seasonally snow covered regions of the Northern Hemisphere. It appears that some climate models use unrealistic parameter values, and snow albedo masking need not be as large a source of uncertainty as it is in current climate projections.
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  A classical paradigm for terrestrial climate variability involves remote sea-surface temperature forcing, communicated to receptor regions via atmospheric teleconnections. Here, the teleconnection link is abstracted in terms of Shannon's information-theoretic measure “channel capacity.” An upper bound on the channel capacity for DJF seasonal precipitation teleconnections with sea surface temperature in the NINO3.4 region, when both variables are tercile-quantized, is estimated as one bit, meaning that it is only marginally possible to distinguish reliably between two NINO3.4 input states on the basis of observed precipitation output amounts, the central tercile acting principally to degrade reliability. A relationship between the channel capacity in a continuous model and the correlation coefficient is established; the corresponding nonlinear transformation provides a useful shift in perspective on the communication of information as such via teleconnections.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  Although the persistently active Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat, West Indies) is one of the most extensively studied active stratovolcanoes, a local Bouguer gravity map of the volcano and the island of Montserrat has yet to be constructed. We collected 157 new gravity data, which we analysed and inverted in order to constrain the island's subsurface density distribution. Our model results reveal high-density material beneath the centres of the extinct volcanic complexes – presumably related to exposed dome cores – while the volcanic flanks and the active Soufrière Hills Volcano are underlain by low-density material. Volcaniclastic deposits and subsurface melt aggregations, respectively, may explain these negative gravity anomalies. Our results are in good agreement with previous structural observations from seismic tomography, yet a higher spatial density of the gravity survey network has allowed us to additionally capture smaller, shallow-seated anomalies in the gravity field that relate to tectonic structures and fluvial filling deposits.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2013-10-04
    Description: [1]  We numerically simulate slow slip events (SSEs) in the Shikoku region of Japan, incorporating the configuration of the subducting plate. We adopt a rate- and state-dependent friction law with cut-off velocities, assuming a frictional parameter distribution based on observed long-term SSEs and nonvolcanic tremors that reflects the slip of short-term SSEs. Our model reproduces recurrences of long- and short-term SSEs and segments of short-term SSEs. In our simulation, short-term SSEs’ transition from episodic to continuous slip is reproduced. This feature is consistent with tremor activity recently reported in both Shikoku and Cascadia. In addition to the long-term SSEs in the Bungo Channel, our model also reproduces newly found long-term SSEs in central Shikoku, and predicts that these SSEs recur during the interseismic period between megathrust earthquakes. Our model comprehensively reproduces various SSEs and their characteristics as reported in the Shikoku region.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2013-10-05
    Description: [1]  Poleward warm-water flows around Point Conception are an important transport mechanism linking biogeographic provinces along central California. These flows are initiated by relaxation of upwelling winds; the intensity and duration of upwelling is an important driver of how far north warm water penetrates against the prevailing surface currents. In this paper we present evidence of offshore surface water intrusions to the inner shelf, 130 km north of Point Conception, near Cambria, California. Satellite observations show that the intrusions originate as eddies generated offshore along the upwelling front. These eddies may form as submesoscale instabilities or by interaction of upwelling centers with offshore waters. The intrusions move southern watersto the central California inner shelf farther northward than is typical for a coastal relaxation plume, and therefore inner shelf connectivity and ecology may be governed over timescales and distances longer than those set by the intermittent relaxation of upwelling winds.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2013-10-05
    Description: [1]  The rupture history of the April 20, 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake is constrained by inverting waveforms of local strong motion, teleseismic broadband body waves, and long period surface waves. This earthquake ruptured a blind thrust fault oriented N210 o E (along the Longmenshan fault zone) and dipping 40 o to the NW. The inverted slip distribution is heterogeneous, dominated by a slip patch with a roughly right triangular shape, which spans a depth range of 5-20 km and accounts for two-thirds of the total seismic moment (8.9x10 18 Nm). The rupture initiated roughly at the middle of the triangle's hypotenuse and, during the first 4 s, propagated mainly in along-strike and down-dip directions, towards a peak slip of 1.2 m. Despite a large number of fatalities and economic loss, the estimated static and apparent stress drops of the Lushan earthquake are 1.5 MPa and 0.35 MPa, considerably low with respect to other similar intra-plate earthquakes.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2013-10-05
    Description: [1]  The efficiency of heat transfer by conduction in Earth's core controls the dynamics of convection and limits the power available for the geodynamo. We have measured the room temperature electrical resistivity of iron and iron-silicon alloy to 60 GPa and present a new model of the resistivity at the high pressures and temperatures relevant to Earth's core. The model is compared with available shock wave data and theoretical studies. For a power law and linear temperature dependence of electrical resistivity, the calculated thermal conductivity at the core mantle boundary is ~67-145 W/m/K for pure Fe, and ~41-60 W/m/K for Fe-9wt.%Si. Impurities in the core have a strong effect on the transport properties of iron that could significantly impact core thermal models. The models describing the data indicate higher thermal conductivity at core pressure than previously suggested, requiring additional energy sources in the past to operate the geodynamo.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2013-10-05
    Description: [1]  Unusual ionospheric variations were observed in the M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake on 11 March 2011. Among various kinds of features in the ionosphere, significant depletion of TEC near the epicenter was observed after the earthquake. Although previous studies have suggested that the coseismic ionospheric variations are associated with atmospheric perturbation caused by vertical displacement of the sea surface, the mechanism of the TEC depletion has not been fully understood. In this paper, a two-dimensional nonlinear nonhydrostatic compressible atmosphere–ionosphere model is employed to investigate the ionospheric variations in the vicinity of the epicenter. The simulation results reveal that an impulsive pressure pulse produced by a sudden uplift of the sea surface leads to local atmospheric expansion in the thermosphere and that the expansion of the thermosphere combined with the effect of inclined magnetic field lines in the ionosphere causes the sudden TEC depletion above the epicenter region.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2013-10-05
    Description: [1]  We show that subglacial freshwater discharge is the principal process driving high rates of submarine melting at tidewater glaciers. This buoyant discharge draws in warm seawater, entraining it in a turbulent upwelling flow along the submarine face that melts glacier ice. To capture the effects of subglacial discharge on submarine melting, we conducted four days of hydrographic transects during late summer 2012 at LeConte Glacier, Alaska. A major rainstorm allowed us to document the influence of large changes in subglacial discharge. We found strong submarine melt fluxes that increased from 9.1 ± 1.0 to 16.8 ± 1.3 m d −1 (ice face equivalent frontal ablation) as a result of the rainstorm. With projected continued global warming and increased glacial runoff, our results highlight the direct impact that increases in subglacial discharge will have on tidewater outlet systems. These effects must be considered when modeling glacier response to future warming and increased runoff.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2013-10-05
    Description: [1]  Although volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes often occur in response to magma intrusion, it is rare for them to have magnitudes larger than ~ M4. On 24 May 2007, two shallow M4+ earthquakes occurred beneath the upper part of the east rift zone of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. An integrated analysis of geodetic, seismic and field data, together with Coulomb stress modeling, demonstrates that the earthquakes occurred due to strike-slip motion on pre-existing faults that bound Kīlauea Caldera to the southeast and that pressurization of Kīlauea's summit magma system may have been sufficient to promote faulting. For the first time, we infer a plausible origin to generate rare moderate-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea by reactivation of suitably oriented pre-existing caldera-bounding faults. Rare moderate to large-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea and other volcanoes can therefore result from reactivation of existing fault planes due to stresses induced by magmatic processes.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2013-10-05
    Description: [1]  Estimates of the oceanic lateral eddy diffusion coefficient A redi vary by more than an order of magnitude, ranging from less than a few hundred m 2 /s to thousands of m 2 /s. This uncertainty has first-order implications for the intensity of oceanic hypoxia, which is poorly simulated by the current generation of Earth System Models. Using satellite-based estimate of oxygen consumption in hypoxic waters to estimate the required diffusion coefficient for these waters gives a value of order 1000 m 2 /s. Varying A redi across a suite of Earth System Models yields a broadly consistent result given a thermocline diapycnal diffusion coefficient of 1x10 -5  m 2 /s.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  This study analyzes whether the imprint of external forcings can be detected in the long-term evolution of the main atmospheric circulation patterns in climate simulations over the last millennium. The external forcing is not found to significantly add variability in any frequency band compared to control simulations where the external drivers are kept constant. Additionally, a method designed to detect a common signal in the time evolution of these circulation patterns among all simulations is proposed, and employed to demonstrate that the null hypothesis of an evolution dominated by internal variability can not be rejected regardless of the time smoothing applied to the series. Given that the fingerprint of external forcings on atmospheric circulation has been successfully detected in simulations of the 20th century climate and in future climate change projections, we argue that either the effect of past natural forcing is too small, state-of-the-art climate models underestimate their climate sensitivity, or the anthropogenic forcing qualitatively differs from the natural forcing in its effect on main circulation patterns.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced tens of meters of fault slip near the Japan Trench, which generated devastating tsunami. The rupture process before the huge slip is still unclear due to a lack of resolution. Here I perform a multiscale slip inversion analysis to examine the first 10 and 20 s of the rupture process and the whole rupture process at different scales. The result shows that 4 s after the initiation, this earthquake started with a relatively high-speed rupture that had a peak slip-rate faster than 1 m/s and rupture velocity comparable to 3 km/s. 14 s after the initiation, the rupture propagation direction changed from northward to westward, near the edge of the M 7.3 foreshock coseismic slip area. The stress release by the foreshock may contribute to the complex small-scale rupture propagation, which may appear to be a slow rupture propagation when only looking at long-period data.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2013-06-08
    Description: [1]  As the primary source of nutrients to the global thermocline, Subantarctic Mode Waters (SAMWs) play a key role in primary production and climate. Here we use repeat hydrographic WOCE/CLIVAR data to quantify interannual SAMW nutrient variability and its forcing. Pacific sector SAMW nutrients were significantly correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and wind stress curl anomalies associated with a faster meridional overturning circulation (MOC). A stronger MOC results in greater upwelling of nutrients at high latitudes, increased Ekman transport of nutrients equatorward, and subduction of higher preformed nutrient loads in SAMWs. Australian sector SAMWs were significantly correlated with ENSO, likely due to its modulation of transport in the East Australian Current extension. Interannual variability in SAMW nutrients impacts downstream tropical export production by as much as 5-12% of the annual mean.
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2013-06-12
    Description: [1]  Very few age controls exist for Quaternary deposits over the vast territory of the East Russian Arctic, which hampers dating of major environmental changes in this area and prevents their correlation to climatic changes in the Arctic and Pacific marine domains. We report a newly identified ~177 ka old Rauchua tephra, which has been dispersed over an area of 〉1,500,000 km 2 and directly links terrestrial paleoenvironmental archives from Arctic Siberia with marine cores in the northwest Pacific, thus permitting their synchronization and dating. The Rauchua tephra can help to identify deposits formed in terrestrial and marine environments during the oxygen isotope stage 6.5 warming event. Chemical composition of volcanic glass from the Rauchua tephra points to its island-arc origin, while its spatial distribution singles out the Kamchatka volcanic arc as a source. The Rauchua tephra represents a previously unknown, large (magnitude 〉6.5) explosive eruption from the Kamchatka volcanic arc.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2013-06-12
    Description: [1]  A crucial challenge in climate studies is to determine how warming trends due to anthropogenic forcing may affect the natural modes of atmospheric variability. In the Northern extratropics, the leading pattern of atmospheric dynamics is known as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), often computed as the first Empirical Orthogonal Function of sea-level pressure (SLP) or geopotential height at 500mb (Z500). Here we compare wintertime NAM changes estimated from previous (CMIP3) versus ongoing (CMIP5) generations of multi-model projections for the twenty-first century, under similar emission scenarios (SRES A2 vs. RCP 8.5). CMIP3 projections exhibited a positive NAM trend, albeit this response differed between SLP and Z500, whereas CMIP5 projections rather reveal a negative trend, especially for Z500. We show that the CMIP3/5 discrepancies are mostly explained in early winter by the local consequence of faster Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP5, and in late winter by the remote influence through teleconnection of stronger warming in the Western tropical Pacific. The attribution of CMIP3/5 discrepancies to the differences in emission scenarios is assessed by investigating NAM responses in common 1%-CO2 idealized experiments.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  Seismic interferometry is applied to continuous seismic recordings spanning five days and over 2200 stations at the Valhall Life-of-Field Seismic (LOFS) array in the Norwegian North Sea. We retrieve both fundamental-mode and first-overtone Scholte-waves by cross-correlation. Ambient-seismic-noise tomography (ASNT) using the vertical component of this dense array produces group-velocity maps of fundamental-mode Scholte waves with high repeatability from only 24 hours of recording. This repeatability makes daily reservoir-scale near-surface continuous monitoring of the subsurface feasible. Such monitoring may detect production-related changes over a long time-scale (months to years) and may be useful for early detection of short time-scale hazards (days to weeks) such as migrating gases and fluids. We validate our velocity maps by comparing them with maps obtained independently from controlled-source data.
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  We examine sea-state-dependent wind work on the oceanic general circulation, using a wave hindcast dataset, QuikSCAT winds, and geostrophic and total ocean surface currents from (1) AVISO and (2) ECCO2 model products. For wind work on surface geostrophic currents estimated from AVISO or ECCO2, sea-state-dependent wind stress increases an average of 24% (0.17TW) or 23% (0.15TW), compared with estimates that exclude sea state effects. For wind work on the total surface currents, the sea-state-dependent wind stress increases the wind work by about 24% (0.4TW). In terms of spatial distribution, the increase in wind power input occurs mainly in high-wind tropical regions and the mid-latitude storm track regions, like the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region, where the relatively rough ocean surface is characterized by young waves and high winds. By comparison, in some regions with relatively low winds and mature ocean waves, there is a slight reduction in estimated wind power input.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  A quantitative analysis is performed on the decay of an unusual ring of relativistic electrons between 3 and 3.5 R E , which was observed by the REPT instrument on the Van Allen Probes. The ring formed on September 3, 2012 during the main phase of a magnetic storm due to the partial depletion of the outer radiation belt for L 〉 3.5, and this remnant belt of relativistic electrons persisted at energies above 2 MeV, exhibiting only slow decay, until it was finally destroyed during another magnetic storm on October 1. This long-term stability of the relativistic electron ring was associated with the rapid outward migration and maintenance of the plasmapause to distances greater than L = 4. The remnant ring was thus immune from the dynamic process, which caused rapid rebuilding of the outer radiation belt at L 〉 4, and was only subject to slow decay due to pitch angle scattering by plasmaspheric hiss on timescales exceeding 10–20 days for electron energies above 3 MeV. At lower energies the decay is much more rapid, consistent with the absence of a long duration electron ring at energies below 2 MeV.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  Event-to-event intraseasonal convection is found to be significantly different from a canonical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Nearly half of all austral summer events do not show the same initiation or propagation characteristics of canonical MJOs, although they meet some MJO criteria during their life cycles. Variations of intraseasonal convection fall within three distinct forms: the canonical MJO, an eastward decaying mode, and an eastward intensifying mode. This distinction offers important insights into the overall dynamics and predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies generated during convective breaks are fundamental for canonical propagation and result from radiative forcing whose modulation is a consequence of large-scale wave dynamics. Eastward propagation seems to rely more on the state of the tropical atmosphere–ocean system before convective triggering than on the trigger itself. Eastward decaying events exhibit weaker wave-related anomalies. Alternatively, mechanisms driving intensification over Indonesia are very different from the first two categories.
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  In this study we examine the causes of electron precipitation during a substorm on February 15, 2008 that lead to auroral brightening. We use global kinetic simulations along with spacecraft and ground-based data. We find ~keV electrons in the region modeled in the simulation precipitate into the pre-midnight sector at latitudes between 71° and 75° due to two distinct physical processes: (1) higher latitude precipitation due to electrons that undergo relatively rapid non-adiabatic pitch angle scattering into the loss cone just earthward of a reconnection region, and (2) lower latitude precipitation due to electrons that are more gradually accelerated primarily parallel to the geomagnetic field by Fermi acceleration. These latter electrons enter the loss cone much closer to Earth at ~−15 to −10 R E . The electron precipitation due to the combination of these two mechanisms coincides spatially with observed auroral brightening during the disturbed event.
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  Sediment undulations observed on the continental shelf in muddy prodeltas are often marked by the presence of gas in the up-slope location. The growth and migration of bubbles within fine-grained muddy sediments is associated with sediment fracturing that damages the sediment and changes its effective mechanical properties. Presented theoretical investigation demonstrates by modeling that undulations may be induced by creep deformations down-slope from the region with gas presence. Comparison of the dimensions of the modeled undulations with observed ones suggests that the undulations may be enhanced over time by different processes, e.g. by the different types of the sediment deposition.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  The warm core structures of Hurricane Sandy and other nine tropical cyclones (TCs) are studied using the temperatures retrieved from Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). A new algorithm is developed for the retrieval of atmospheric temperature profiles from the ATMS radiances. Since ATMS observation has a higher spatial resolution and better coverage than its predecessor, AMSU-A, the retrieved temperature field explicitly resolves TC warm core throughout troposphere and depicts the cold temperature anomalies in the eyewall and spiral rain bands. Unlike a typical TC, the height of maximum warm core of Hurricane Sandy is very low, but the storm size is quite large. Based on the analysis of ten TCs in 2012, close correlations are found between ATMS derived warm core and the TC maximum sustained wind (MSW) or minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP). The estimation errors of MSW and MSLP from ATMS retrieved warm core are 13.5 mph and 13.1 hPa, respectively.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  Spatially aggregated extreme rainfall over India shows an increasing trend over last 50 years of 20 th century, while fine resolution analysis reveals spatially non-uniform trend. Analysis of 104 years (1901-2004) extreme precipitation over India at 1 0 resolution, using Extreme Value Theory (EVT), reveals that post 1950 extreme rainfall characteristics (intensity, duration and frequency) and their trends are significantly different from those of before 1950, with spatial non-uniformity. Majority of the locations in India have post 1950 trends of extremes with a different sign as compared to pre 1950. Further investigations with statistical change point analysis reveal that fraction of grid points having post 1975 changes is maximum. Majority of the urbanized areas have post 1975 change points, while the same is not true for non-urban areas. As urbanization has intensified during 1971 - 1981 in India, these results indicate the possible impacts of urbanization on extreme rainfall trends and patterns.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  The solubility of argon and krypton in methane and ethane has been experimentally determined at Titan relevant temperatures. At typical Titan surface temperature (94 K), argon and krypton solubilities are very large (47% in methane and 15% in ethane for Ar, 29% in methane and 43% in ethane for Kr) making liquid alkanes on Titan an important potential reservoir of 40 Ar and other noble gases. Large subsurface reservoirs of liquid ethane and methane could be sufficient to trap much of the argon outgassing from Titan's interior, which can help explain the discrepancy between the potential amount of 40 Ar produced inside Titan's interior, and the amount observed in the atmosphere by Cassini-Huygens. Consequently, on Titan, liquid hydrocarbons may function as a buffer in the outgassing of volatiles from the interior, and they may strongly influence the evolution of the atmosphere's composition through release of soluble gases upon evaporation and/or intake upon condensation.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Description: [1]  The 2009 Samoa ( M w 8.1), 2010 Chile (8.8), and 2011 Tohoku (9.0) earthquakes generated destructive tsunamis recorded by a large number of DART stations in the Pacific Ocean. High-resolution (15-sec) DART records yield mean energy decay times for these events of 17.3, 24.7 and 24.6 hrs, respectively. We attribute these differences to the frequency content of the tsunamis. Specifically, the Samoa tsunami was a “high-frequency” event with periods of 2–30 min whereas the Chile and Tohoku tsunamis were “broad-band” events with periods of 2–180 min. Differences in frequency content are linked to differences in the source parameters: Samoa was a relatively small deep-water earthquake while Chile and Tohoku were extensive shallow-water earthquakes. Frequency-dependent analysis of the Chile and Tohoku tsunamis indicates that shorter period waves attenuate much faster than longer-period waves (decay times range from 15 hrs for 2–6 min waves to 29 hrs for 60–180 min waves).
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2013-06-08
    Description: [1]  The Hawaiian Islands are the most geologically studied hot-spot islands in the world, yet surprisingly, the only large scale compilation of marine and land gravity data is more than 45 years old. Early surveys served as reconnaissance studies only and detailed analyses of the crustal-density structure have been limited. Here, we present a new chain-wide gravity compilation that incorporates historical island surveys, recently published work on the islands of Hawai'i, Kaua‘i, and Ni‘ihau, and xtgreater122,000 km of newly compiled marine gravity data. Positive residual gravity anomalies reflect dense intrusive bodies, allowing us to locate current and former volcanic centers, major rift zones and a previously suggested volcano on Ka‘ena Ridge. By inverting the residual gravity data, we generate a 3D view of the dense, intrusive complexes and olivine-rich cumulate cores within individual volcanoes and rift zones. We find that the Hāna and Ka‘ena ridges are underlainby particularly high-density intrusive material (〉2.85 g/cm 3 ), not observed beneath other Hawaiian rift zones. Contrary to previous estimates, volcanoes along the chain are shown to be composed of a small proportion of intrusive material (〈30% by volume), implying that the islands are predominately built extrusively.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2013-06-08
    Description: ABSTRACT [1]  Extreme precipitation and floods in Europe are a recurring natural hazard causing large socio-economic damages. Here we investigate the connection between annual maxima (AM) daily precipitation at a pan-European scale and atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow filaments that convey the majority of the poleward water vapor transport within extra-tropical cyclones. We show that ARs are responsible for many AM precipitation days in Western Europe. The relationship is especially strong along the western European seaboard, with some areas having eight of their top ten AM related to ARs. The effects of ARs is also seen as far inland as Germany and Poland. Southern Europe was most affected by ARs under negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions, whereas northern Europe was more associated with a positive relationship between ARs and an NAO-type pattern. Our results suggest that ARs are critical in explaining the upper tail of the extreme precipitation distribution in Western Europe.
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2013-06-12
    Description: [1]  Two types of poleward-moving plasma concentration enhancements (PMPCEs) were observed during a sequence of pulsed reconnection events, both in the morning convection cell: Type L (Low density) was associated with a cusp flow channel and seems likely to have been produced by ionization associated with particle precipitation, while Type H (High density) appeared to originate from the segmentation of the tongue of ionization (TOI) by the processes which produced the Type L events. As a result, the Type L and Type H PMPCEs were interspersed, producing a complex density structure which underlines the importance of cusp flow channels as a mechanism for segmenting and structuring electron density in the cusp, and shows the necessity of differentiating between at least two classes of electron density patches.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2013-06-12
    Description: [1]  On 15 February 2013, a large Earth-impacting fireball disintegrated over the Ural Mountains. This extraordinary event is, together with the 1908 Tunguska fireball, among the most energetic events ever instrumentally recorded. It generated infrasound returns, after circling the globe, at distances up to ~85,000 km, and was detected at 20 infrasonic stations of the global International Monitoring System (IMS). For the first time since the establishment of the IMS infrasound network, multiple arrivals involving waves that traveled twice round the globe have been clearly identified. A preliminary estimate of the explosive energy using empirical period-yield scaling relations gives a value of 460 kilotons of TNT equivalent. In the context of the future verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), this event provides a prominent milestone for studying in detail infrasound propagation around the globe for almost three days as well as for calibrating the performance of the IMS network.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2013-06-12
    Description: [1]  This study examines the role of aqueous secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in the North American Sonoran Desert as a result of intense solar radiation, enhanced moisture, and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). The ratio of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) to organic carbon (OC) nearly doubles during the monsoon season relative to other seasons of the year. When normalized by mixing height, the WSOC enhancement during monsoon months relative to preceding dry months (May - June) exceeds that of sulfate by nearly a factor of ten. WSOC:OC and WSOC are most strongly correlated with moisture parameters, temperature, and concentrations of O 3 and BVOCs. No positive relationship was identified between WSOC or WSOC:OC and anthropogenic tracers such as CO over a full year. This study points at the need for further work to understand the effect of BVOCs and moisture in altering aerosol properties in under-studied desert regions.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2013-06-12
    Description: [1]  Identifying and cataloguing occurrences of particular topographic features are important but time-consuming tasks. Typically, automation is challenging, as simple models do not fully describe the complexities of natural features. We propose a new approach, where a particular class of neural network (the ‘autoencoder’) is used to assimilate the characteristics of the feature to be catalogued, and then applied to a systematic search for new examples. To demonstrate the feasibility of this method, we construct a network that may be used to find seamounts in global bathymetric data. We show results for two test regions, which compare favourably with results from traditional algorithms.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2013-06-12
    Description: [1]  We present the first simulation of rainfall kinetic energy flux in a cloud resolving model. This demonstrates the potential for conducting erosion prediction studies using a regional climate model. Soil erosion is already a major global problem, and there is growing pressure on our land to deliver food and stability. Rainfall kinetic energy flux is an important variable in erosion prediction, but is generally parameterised from intensity due to measurement difficulties. We show that a cloud resolving model can be used to dynamically simulate the kinetic energy of rain from basic physics, using four microphysics schemes. Results are within the range of observations, and also capture the observed variability in kinetic energy for a given intensity. Large drops are shown to contribute disproportionately to total kinetic energy compared with their number, suggesting that several existing relations between terminal velocity and size of raindrops are poorly suited for kinetic energy modeling.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2013-03-22
    Description: [1]  We report systematic measurements of the distribution of the incident angle of interstellar pickup He + ions as observed by STEREO/PLASTIC. We have organized these observations according to the angle spanned by the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), , and the bulk solar wind velocity, v sw . Our measurements show clear evidence of a relatively local injection of He + pickup ions into the solar wind, which are then seen as a ring distribution perpendicular to . Changes of the spectral shape and a reduced flux of interstellar He + during radial IMF configuration, as observed by e.g. Ulysses/SWICS, SOHO/CTOF, AMPTE/SULEICA, have generally been attributed to inefficient scattering across 90° pitch-angle. Our observations of the pitch-angle distribution of interstellar He + suggest that these changes are instead a result of locally injected pickup ions that escape detection for IMF configuration in which the Solar Wind Sector of PLASTIC, as well as SWICS, CTOF, and SULEICA, are not sensitive to the measurement of the locally injected pickup ion ring.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2013-03-22
    Description: [1]  Geodynamic models of a convectively translating inner core have recently been proposed that would account for the seismically observed differences in isotropic velocity between the eastern and western hemispheres of the inner core. These models, however, have previously been thought to be incompatible with seismic observations of a 1.5% P-wave velocity change occurring over an 800 km wide region at the boundary between hemispheres of the inner core. Here, we show that if rigid translation occurs, the age of material in the 100 km below the inner core boundary changes quickly as it crosses the boundary between the western and eastern hemispheres. We then forward model seismic travel times to show that the sharp transition in V P between hemispheres may be explained by a random distribution of highly oriented crystalline domains that grow during translation and are composed of material with relatively high elastic anisotropy (up to 12%).
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2013-04-03
    Description: [1]  Several Mediterranean vortices with characteristics similar to tropical cyclones are analyzed by means of numerical simulations, satellite products and lightning data. Numerical analysis suggests that the broad tropical-like cyclone category includes in reality a set of different cyclones, ranging from very small and weak vortices to larger and stronger cyclones. One case displays a much longer persistence of tropical features than the other events. The analysis of the tracks identifies two preferred areas of occurrence, the Ionian sea and the Balearic Islands. The satellite analysis of cloud top height and retrieved rainfall indicates that the stage characterized by the most intense convective activity and rainfall anticipates the mature phase, when the cyclone is more intense and characterised by tropical features, during which convection is shallower and rainfall weaker. This result is confirmed by a preliminary analysis of the lightning activity.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2013-04-03
    Description: [1]  The western North Pacific (WNP) Subtropical High (WNPSH) is a controlling system for East Asian Summer monsoon and tropical storm activities, whereas what maintains the anomalous summertime WNPSH has been a long-standing riddle. Here we demonstrate that the local convection-wind-evaporation-SST (CWES) feedback relying on both mean flows and mean precipitation is key in maintaining the WNPSH, while the remote forcing from the development of El Niño/Southern Oscillation is secondary. Strikingly, the majority of strong WNPSH cases exhibit anomalous intensification in late summer (August), which is dominantly determined by the seasonal march of the mean state. That is, enhanced mean precipitation associated with strong WNP monsoon trough in late summer make atmospheric response much more sensitive to local SST forcing than early summer.
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2013-04-03
    Description: [1]  Based on periodicities in the kilometric radio emissions, the Saturn Longitude System 4 (SLS4), was used to organize the far ultraviolet (120–150 nm) aurora observed by the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) on the Cassini spacecraft. Individual UVIS pixels were projected onto the ionosphere of Saturn, transformed into the SLS4 north and SLS4 south longitude systems, accumulated over all over auroral observations from 2007 to early 2009, and binned into 1°x 1° bins of co-latitude. The intensity of the northern aurora showed little variation in its SLS4 north system, but the intensity of the southern aurora exhibited an enhancement of over ~10 kR between ~140–280° SLS4 south longitude. This enhancement may represent the auroral signature of a southern ionospheric vortex proposed in MHD models of Saturn's magnetosphere to explain its periodicities. The loci of the northern intensity peaks and the 3 kR boundaries varied little over 360° of longitude, while the equatorward boundary of the southern aurora varied by ~5° in SLS4 south longitude, reaching its most equatorward location of ~23° colatitude between 100° and 180° longitude. The polygonal centroids of the aurora in both north and south were consistent with offsets of no more than ~1° in both hemispheres.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2013-04-03
    Description: [1]  This study evaluates four years (2009–12) of World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)data relative to the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). In the Western Hemisphere between 38° N and 38° S,WWLLN detection efficiency (of LIS flashes)steadily improves from 6% during 2009 to 9.2% during 2012. WWLLN is ~ 3 times more likely to detecta LIS flashover the ocean(17.3%) than over land (6.4%), and detection efficiencies greater than 20% only occur over the oceans. An average of1.5 WWLLN strokes occur during each matched LIS flash, but 71.5% of matched flashes are single stroke. Matched LIS flashes have more events/groups, longer durations, and larger areas than non-matched flashes. The close spatial (11 km) and temporal (+62 ms) proximity between matched WWLLN and LIS flashes is important for Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) risk-reduction studies that use existing networks to developproxy datasets.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2013-03-31
    Description: [1]  Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park (USA) has attracted numerous scientific investigations for over two centuries in order to better understand its geological structure, the physics of its eruptions, and the controls of its intermittency. Using data acquired with a seismic array in 1992, we track the sources of hydrothermal tremor produced by boiling and cavitation inside the geyser. The location of seismic sources identifies a previously unknown lateral cavity at 15 m below the surface, on the SW side of the vent, and connected to the conduit. This reservoir is activated at the beginning of each geyser eruption cycle and plays a major role in the oscillatory behavior of the water level in the conduit before each eruption.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2013-03-31
    Description: [1]  We used a first-order, monthly snow model and observations to disentangle seasonal influences on regional snowpack anomalies in the Rocky Mountains of western North America where interannual variations in cool season (Nov-Mar) temperatures are broadly synchronous, but precipitation is typically antiphased north to south and uncorrelated with temperature. Over the previous eight centuries regional snowpack variability exhibits strong, decadally persistent north-south antiphasing of snowpack anomalies. Contrary to the normal regional antiphasing, two intervals of spatially synchronized snow deficits were identified. Snow deficits shown during the 1930s were synchronized north-south by low cool-season precipitation, with spring warming (Feb-Mar) since the 1980s driving the majority of the recent synchronous snow declines, especially across the low to middle elevations. Spring warming strongly influenced low snowpacks in the north after 1958, but not in the south until after 1980. The post-1980, synchronous snow decline reduced snowcover at low to middle elevations by ~20%, and partly explains earlier and reduced streamflow, and both longer and more active fire seasons. Climatologies of Rocky Mountain snowpack are shown to be seasonally and regionally complex, with Pacific decadal variability positively reinforcing the anthropogenic warming trend.
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2013-03-31
    Description: [1]  Field studies of watershed carbon fluxes and budgets are critical for understanding the carbon cycle, but the role of deep regional groundwater is poorly known and field examples are lacking. Here we show that discharge of regional groundwater into a lowland Costa Rican rainforest has a major influence on ecosystem carbon fluxes. This influence is observable through chemical, isotopic, and flux signals in groundwater, surface water, and air. Not addressing the influence of regional groundwater in the field measurement program and data analysis would give a misleading impression of the overall carbon source or sink status of the rainforest. In quantifying a carbon budget with the traditional " small watershed" mass-balance approach, it would be critical at this site and likely many others to consider watershed inputs or losses associated with exchange between the ecosystem and the deeper hydrogeological system on which it sits.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2013-04-11
    Description: [1]  Acidified waters are impacting commercial oyster production in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and favorable carbonate chemistry conditions are predicted to become less frequent. Within 48 hours of fertilization, unshelled Pacific oyster (Crassostreagigas) larvae precipitate roughly 90% of their body weight as calcium carbonate. We measured stable carbon isotopes in larval shell and tissue and in algal food and seawater dissolved inorganic carbon in a longitudinal study of larval development and growth. Using these data and measured biochemical composition of larvae we show that sensitivity of initial shell formation to ocean acidification results from diminished ability to isolate calcifying fluid from surrounding seawater, a limited energy budget dependent, and a strong kinetic demand for calcium carbonate precipitation. Our results highlight an important link between organism physiology and mineral kinetics in larval bivalves and suggest the consideration of mineral kinetics may improve understanding winners and losers in a high CO 2 world.
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2013-04-07
    Description: [1]  We used 6 hours of continuous vertical records from 2320 sensors of the Valhall Life of Fields Seismic network to compute 2 690 040 cross-correlation functions between the full set of sensor pair combinations. We applied the ‘Helmholtz tomography’ approach combined with the ambient noise correlation method to track the wave front across the network with every station considered as a virtual source. The gradient of the interpolated phase travel time gives us an estimate of the local phase speed and of the direction of wave propagation. By combining the individual measurements for every station, we estimated the distribution of Scholte's wave phase speeds with respect to azimuth. The observed cosine pattern indicates the presence of azimuthal anisotropy. The elliptic shape of the fast anisotropy direction is consistent with results of previous shear wave splitting studies and reflects the strong seafloor subsidence due to the hydrocarbon reservoir depletion at depth and is in good agreement with geomechanical modeling.
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